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Volcanic Winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:18 PM GMT on April 24, 2009

"The sun was dark and its darkness lasted for eighteen months; each day it shone for about four hours; and still this light was only a feeble shadow; the fruits did not ripen and the wine tasted like sour grapes." As this Michael the Syrian quote regarding the weather of 536 A.D. demonstrates, a climate catastrophe that blots out the sun can really spoil your day. Procopius of Caesarea remarked: "During this year [536 A.D.] a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness. and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear." Many documents from 535 - 536 A.D.--the time of King Arthur in Britain--speak of the terrible "dry fog" or cloud of dust that obscured the sun, causing widespread crop failures in Europe, and summer frosts, drought, and famine in China. Tree ring studies in Europe confirm several years of very poor growth around that time, and ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show highly elevated levels of atmospheric sulfuric acid dust existed.

Though some scientists believe the climate calamity of 535-536 A.D. was due to a comet or asteroid hitting the Earth, it is widely thought that the event was probably caused by the most massive volcanic eruption of the past 1500 years. This eruption threw so much sulfur dioxide (SO2) gas into the stratosphere that a "Volcanic Winter" resulted. Sulfur dioxide reacts with water to form sulfuric acid droplets (aerosol particles), which are highly reflective and reduce the amount of incoming sunlight. The potential eruption that led to the 535 - 536 A.D. climate calamity would have likely been a magnitude 7 event on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)--a "super colossal" eruption that one can expect to occur only once every 1000 years. The Volcanic Explosivity Index is a logarithmic scale like the Richter scale used to rate earthquakes, so a magnitude 7 eruption would eject ten times more material than the two largest eruptions of the past century--the magnitude 6 eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (1991) and Novarupta in Alaska (1912).


Figure 1. An 18 km-high volcanic plume from one of a series of explosive eruptions of Mount Pinatubo beginning on 12 June 1991, viewed from Clark Air Base (about 20 km east of the volcano). Three days later, the most powerful eruption produced a plume that rose nearly 40 km, penetrating well into the stratosphere. Pinatubo's sulfur emissions cooled the Earth by about 1°F (0.5°C) for 1 - 2 years. (Photograph by David H. Harlow, USGS.)

Super-colossal eruptions
There has been only one other magnitude 7 "super-colossal" eruption in the past 1500 years--the massive eruption of the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815. The sulfur pumped by this eruption into the stratosphere dimmed sunlight so extensively that global temperatures fell by about 2°F (1°C) for 1 - 2 years afterward. This triggered the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. Killing frosts and snow storms in May and June 1816 in Eastern Canada and New England caused widespread crop failures, and lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania in July and August. The Tambora eruption was about 40% smaller than the 535 - 536 A.D. event, as measured by the number of sulfur aerosol particles deposited in Greenland ice cores.

In an article published in 2008 in the American Geophysical Union journal EOS, Dr. Ken Verosub of the University of California, Davis Department of Geology estimated that future eruptions capable of causing "Volcanic Winter" effects severe enough to depress global temperatures by 2°F (1°C) and trigger widespread crop failures for 1 - 2 years afterwards should occur about once every 200 - 300 years. Even a magnitude 6 eruption, such as the 1600 eruption of the Peruvian volcano Huaynaputina, can cause climatic change capable of killing millions of people. The Huaynaputina eruption is blamed for the Russian famine of 1601-1603, which killed over half a million people and led to the overthrow of Tsar Boris Godunov. Thankfully, the climatic impacts of all of these historic magnitude 6 and 7 eruptions have been relatively short-lived. After about two years, the sulfuric acid aerosol particles have settled out of the stratosphere, returning the climate to its former state.

Mega-colossal eruptions
Even more extreme eruptions have occurred in Earth's past--eruptions ten times more powerful than the Tambora eruption, earning a ranking of 8 out of 8 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). These "mega-colossal" eruptions occur only about once every 10,000 years, but have much longer-lasting climatic effects and thus are a more significant threat to human civilization. According to the Toba Catastrophe Theory, a mega-colossal eruption at Toba Caldera, Sumatra, about 74,000 years ago, was 3500 times greater than the Tambora eruption. According to model simulations, an eruption this large can pump so much sulfur dioxide gas into the stratosphere that the atmosphere does not have the capacity to oxidize all the SO2 to sulfuric acid aerosol. The atmosphere oxidizes as much SO2 as it can, leaving a huge reservoir of SO2 in the stratosphere. This SO2 gradually reacts to form sulfuric acid as the OH radicals needed for this reaction are gradually produced. The result is a much longer-lasting climate effect than the 1 - 2 years that the magnitude 6 and 7 events of 535, 1600, 1815, and 1991 lasted. A magnitude 8 eruption like the Toba event can cool the globe for 6 - 10 years (Figure 3), which may be long enough to trigger an ice age--if the climate is already on the verge of tipping into an ice age. Rampino and Self (1992) argued that the sulfur aerosol veil from Toba was thick and long-lasting enough to cool the globe by 3 - 5°C (5 - 9°F), pushing the climate--which was already cooling and perhaps headed towards an ice age--into a full-scale ice age. They suggested that the response of Canada to the volcano played a particularly important role, with their model predicting a 12°C (22°F) reduction in summer temperatures in Canada. This would have favored the growth of the Laurentide ice sheet, increasing the reflectivity (albedo) of the Earth, reflecting more sunlight and reducing temperatures further. The controversial Toba Catastrophe Theory asserts that the resulting sudden climate change reduced the Earth's population of humans to 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs. More recent research has shed considerable doubt on the idea that the Toba eruption pushed the climate into an ice age, though. Oppenheimer (2002) found evidence supporting only a 2°F (1.1°C) cooling of the globe, for the 1000 years after the Toba eruption. Zielinski et al. (1996) argued that the Toba eruption did not trigger a major ice age--the eruption merely pushed the globe into a cool period that lasted 200 years. Interestingly, a previous super-eruption of Toba, 788,000 years ago, coincided with a transition from an ice age to a warm period.


Figure 2. The 100x30 square kilometer Toba Caldera is situated in north-central Sumatra around 200 km north of the Equator. It is comprised of four overlapping calderas aligned with the Sumatran volcanic chain. Repeated volcanic cataclysms culminated in the stupendous expulsion of the Younger Toba Tuff around 74,000 years ago. The lake area is 100 square kilometers. Samosir Island formed as a result of subsequent uplift above the evacuated magma reservoir. Such resurgent domes are typically seen as the concluding phase of a large eruption. Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) browse images for path/row 128/58 (6 September 1999) and 129/58 (21 January 2001) from http://landsat7.usgs.gov/. Copyright USGS. Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.


Figure 3. Total mass of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere (heavy solid and dotted lines, respectively) modeled for a 6 petagram stratospheric injection of SO2. Observed SO2 and aerosol mass for the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are shown for comparison. The much larger amount of SO2 in the Toba simulation soaks up all available oxidants in the stratosphere leading to a much longer lifetime of SO2 and, in turn, prolonging the manufacture of sulfate aerosol. Data from Read et al. (1993) and Bekki et al. (1996). Image source: Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

When can we expect the next mega-colossal eruption?
Given the observed frequency of one mega-colossal magnitude 8 volcanic eruption every 1.4 million years, the odds of another hitting in the next 100 years is about .014%, according to Mason et al., 2004. This works out to a 1% chance over the next 7200 years. Rampino (2002) puts the average frequency of such eruptions at once every 50,000 years--about double the frequency with which 1-km diameter comets or asteroids capable of causing a similar climatic effect hit the Earth. A likely location for the next mega-colossal eruption would be at the Yellowstone Caldera in Wyoming, which has had magnitude 7 or 8 eruptions as often as every 650,000 years. The last mega-colossal eruption there was about 640,000 years ago. But don't worry, the seismic activity under Yellowstone Lake earlier this year has died down, and the uplift of the ground over the Yellowstone caldera that was as large as 7 cm/yr (2.7 inches/yr) between 2004 - 2006 has now fallen to 4 cm/yr, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. The USGS states that "the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low".

What would happen if a magnitude 8 mega-colossal eruption were to occur today?
If a mega-colossal eruption were to occur today, it would probably not be able to push Earth into an ice age, according to a modeling study done by Jones et al. (2005). They found that an eruption like Toba would cool the Earth by about 17°F (9.4°C) after the first year (Figure 3), and the temperature would gradually recover to 3°F (1.8°C) below normal ten years after the eruption. They found that the eruption would reduce rainfall by 50% globally for the first two years, and up to 90% over the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and central Africa. This would obviously be very bad for human civilization, with the cold and lack of sunshine causing widespread crop failures and starvation of millions of people. Furthermore, the eruption would lead to a partial loss of Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing highly damaging levels of ultraviolet light to penetrate to the surface.

Not even a mega-colossal eruption of this magnitude would stop global warming, though. The level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would not be affected by the volcanic eruption, and warming would resume where it left off once the stratospheric dust settled out in a decade. With civilization crippled by the disaster, greenhouse gas emissions would be substantially reduced, though (small solace!) If we really want to say goodbye to civilization, a repeat of the only magnitude 9 eruption in recorded history should do the trick--the magnitude 9.2 La Garita, Colorado blast of 27.8 million years ago (Mason et al., 2004).


Figure 4. Annual near-surface temperature anomalies for the year following a mega-colossal volcanic eruption like the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago, if it were to occur today. Most land areas cool by 22°F (12°C) compared to average. Some areas, like Africa, cool by 29°F (16°C). Image credit: Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

What would happen if a magnitude 7 super-colossal eruption were to occur today?
An eruption today like the magnitude 7 events of 535 A.D. or 1815 would cause cause wide-spread crop failures for 1 - 2 years after the eruption. With food supplies in the world already stretched thin by rising population, decreased water availability, and conversion of cropland to grow biofuels, a major volcanic eruption would probably create widespread famine, threatening the lives of millions of people. Wars over scarce resources might result. However, society's vulnerability to major volcanic eruptions is less than it was, since the globe has warmed significantly in the past 200 years. The famines from the eruptions of 1600 and 1815 both occurred during the Little Ice Age, when global temperatures were about 1.4°F (0.8°C) cooler than today. Crop failures would not be as wide-spread with today's global temperatures, if a suer-colossal eruption were to occur. Fifty years from now, when global temperatures are expected to be at least 1°C warmer, a magnitude 7 eruption should only be able to cool the climate down to year 2009 levels.

Volcanoes also warm the climate
While volcanoes cool the climate on time scales of 1 - 2 years, they act to warm the climate over longer time scales, since they are an important source of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. Volcanoes add 0.1 - 0.3 gigatons (Gt) of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 1 - 3% of what human carbon emissions to the atmosphere were in 2007, according to the Global Carbon Project. In fact, volcanoes are largely responsible for the natural CO2 in the atmosphere, and helped make life possible on Earth. Why, then, haven't CO2 levels continuously risen over geologic time, turning Earth into a steamy hothouse? In fact, CO2 levels have fallen considerably since the time of the dinosaurs--how can this be? Well, volcano-emitted CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by chemical weathering. This occurs when rain and snow fall on rocks containing silicates. The moisture and silicates react with CO2, pulling it out of the air. The carbon removed from the air is then washed into the sea, where it ends up in ocean sediments that gradually harden into rock. Rates of chemical weathering on Earth have accelerated since the time of the dinosaurs, largely due to the recent uplift of the Himalaya Mountains and Tibetan Plateau. These highlands undergo a tremendous amount of weathering, thanks to their lofty heights and the rains of the Asian Monsoon that they capture. Unfortunately, chemical weathering cannot help us with our current high levels of greenhouse gases, since chemical weathering takes thousands of years to remove significant amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere. It takes about 100,000 years for silicate weathering to remove 63% of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Thus, climate models predict that chemical weathering will solve our greenhouse gas problem in about 100,000 - 200,000 years.

For further information
PBS TV special on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Newspaper articles on the 535-536 A.D. disaster.
Volcanic winter article from wikipedia.
Realclimate.org has a nice article that goes into the volcano-climate connection in greater detail.

References
Bekki, S., J.A. Pyle, W. Zhong, R. Toumi, J.D. Haigh and D.M. Pyle, 1996, "The role of microphysical and chemical processes in prolonging the climate forcing of the Toba eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1996), pp. 2669-2672.

Jones, G.S., et al., 2005, "An AOGCM simulation of the climate response to a volcanic super-eruption", Climate Dynamics, 25, Numbers 7-8, pp 725-738, December, 2005.

Rampino, M.R., and S. Self, 1993, "Climate-volcanism feedback and the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago", Quaternary Research 40 (1993), pp. 269-280.

Mason, B.G., D.M. Pyle, and C. Oppenheimer, 2004, "The size and frequency of the largest observed explosive eruptions on Earth", Bulletin of Volcanology" 66, Number 8, December 2004, pp 735-748.

Oppenheimer, C., 2002, "Limited global change due to the largest known Quaternary eruption, Toba 74 kyr BP?"Quaternary Science Reviews, 21, Issues 14-15, August 2002, Pages 1593-1609.

Rampino, M.R., 2002, "Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations on Earth-like Planets", Icarus, 156, Issue 2, April 2002, Pages 562-569.

Read, W.G., L. Froidevaux and J.W. Waters, 1993, "Microwave Limb Sounder measurements of stratospheric SO2 from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption", Geophysical Research Letters 20 (1993), pp. 1299-1302.

Verosub, K.L., and J. Lippman, 2008, "Global Impacts of the 1600 Eruption of Peru's Huaynaputina Volcano", EOS 89, 15, 8 April 2008, pp 141-142.

Zielinski, G.A. et al., 1996, "Potential Atmospheric Impact of the Toba Mega-Eruption 71,000 Years Ago", Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 8, pp. 837-840, 1996.

Portlight moves to provide relief for South Carolina wildfires
South Carolina's biggest wildfire in more than three decades --a blaze four miles wide--destroyed dozens of homes near Myrtle Beach yesterday. Portlight Strategies, Inc. is preparing to respond to this disaster, focusing on providing drinks and sanitary products to firefighters, particularly to rural volunteer fire departments and other first responders which do not have the same resources as some of the larger paid departments. To help out, visit the Portlight South Carolina fire relief web page. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Volcano

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting presslord:
OK...there's an exception to every rule...

Men shouldn't get married...thus risking divorce....just find a woman you hate and buy her a house....
ROTFLMAO!
Quoting Patrap:
like others like Patrap, JFV and others who are not.

Im in the same sentence as JFV..?

so pat bud do ya have ya flashlight ready
2004. emguy
When systems do form in the SW Carribean, evolution usually occurs over the course of several days. Interesting that the MJO is arriving, and even more interesting that weather456 has observed the models directing a moisture surge in the SW Caribbean in the coming days(via the Pacific). Why? Well folks, a mid-low level low pressure area (not @ surface) has started to take shape in the SW Carribean this afternoon. You can observe this here (Look north of Costa Rica): www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Should this hang around for a few days and catch the MJO and the moisture surge, this could make for some interesting discussion on this blog. More than likely, this will drift into Central America and fade, but it is a new cog in the wheel and the clock is ticking down on the GFS.

Mean time, I'm remaining highly skeptical (99%) that anything will make a go in the SW Caribbean. I still believe that the system in the GFS (despite the repetative runs), is convective feedback (as some have referenced, in affiliation with the referenced heat low). Also important to note that model genesis for SW Carib cyclones, especially in this time of year, can be pretty scetchy and typically doesn't verify.LinkLink
2005. Patrap
so pat bud do ya have ya flashligh ready

Yes Sir KOTG Sir.
I most surely do have the proper Lighting Implements for the Possible Strike on Miami from this GFS scenario Sir.

How are you my most Excellent Friend of the wunderground Sir?

Decent pulse that's for sure..

Maybe we have not heard from JFV/Presidential Election, because we ALL have him on ignore.
At 180 hrs the GFS is showing nice vorticity in the Carribean as well as what appears to be a wave coming off Africa. Link
This is the Navy site in case you want to click through the warning.
Quoting Patrap:
so pat bud do ya have ya flashligh ready

Yes Sir KOTG Sir.
I most surely do have the proper Lighting Implements for the Possible Strike on Miami from this GFS scenario Sir.

How are you my most Excellent Friend of the wunderground Sir?



ROFL!!!!
Hey, there are others of us in Miami, thank you!
Ohh Lawd,
He is back!
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Maybe we have not heard from JFV/Presidential Election, because we ALL have him on ignore.


I don't. He's too entertaining.
rotflmfao

yes sir e bud
Quoting emguy:
When systems do form in the SW Carribean, evolution usually occurs over the course of several days. Interesting that the MJO is arriving, and even more interesting that weather456 has observed the models directing a moisture surge in the SW Caribbean in the coming days(via the Pacific). Why? Well folks, a mid-low level low pressure area (not @ surface) has started to take shape in the SW Carribean this afternoon. You can observe this here (Look north of Costa Rica): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Should this hang around for a few days and catch the MJO and the moisture surge, this could make for some interesting discussion on this blog. More than likely, this will drift into Central America and fade, but it is a new cog in the wheel and the clock is ticking down on the GFS.

Mean time, I'm remaining highly skeptical (99%) that anything will make a go in the SW Caribbean. I still believe that the system in the GFS (despite the repetative runs), is convective feedback (as some have referenced, in affiliation with the referenced heat low). Also important to note that model genesis for SW Carib cyclones, especially in this time of year, can be pretty scetchy and typically doesn't verify.


Well done and couldn't said it better. I still want to believe it's in the eastern pacific the GFS wants to develop the area but with warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, ample lift and moisture, anything forming would not have a difficult time developing. I am waiting patiently to see if the GFS keeps this weekend as it has been pretty consistent thus far.
For those of you who think there is no stupid question (an idea that I think is absurd, btw)..
Here is my stupid question.
Is the Azores/Burmuda High a surface high?
Quoting CaneWarning:


I don't. He's too entertaining.


Same here. He's my excuse to eat carbs - chips, popcorn, etc.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I don't. He's too entertaining.


Ditto :)
2018. HTV
Keeping JFV of the blog is like trying to bury an old mule. Ya throw a shovel load of dirt on him, shakes his back and steps up, throw another shovel load, shakes and steps up, till he walks out of the hole.

By the way my pot bellied pig has the sniffles and a cough. Should I be concerned??
Quoting CatastrophicDL:


Same here. He's my excuse to eat carbs - chips, popcorn, etc.
Another sin to lay at his feet LOL!
JFV/PresidentialElection or some other name, are you here with us tonight?? We miss you! :o)
Quoting KEHCharleston:
For those of you who think there is no stupid question (an idea that I think is absurd, btw)..
Here is my stupid question.
Is the Azores/Burmuda High a surface high?


It's generally found and applied at the surface but it can also extend upwards to 500 mb (mid-level) and when it's really deep to 300 mb (high level).
Quoting HTV:
Keeping JFV of the blog is like trying to bury an old mule. Ya throw a shovel load of dirt on him, shakes his back and steps up, throw another shovel load, shakes and steps up, till he walks out of the hole.

By the way my pot bellied pig has the sniffles and a cough. Should I be concerned??


I certainly wouldn't kiss that pig...
Quoting CaneWarning:


I don't. He's too entertaining.


Same here...
2024. beell
i don't know what's worse. 257 posts from JFV or 257 posts about JFV lol
2021. Weather456 Thanks
Quoting HTV:
Keeping JFV of the blog is like trying to bury an old mule. Ya throw a shovel load of dirt on him, shakes his back and steps up, throw another shovel load, shakes and steps up, till he walks out of the hole.

By the way my pot bellied pig has the sniffles and a cough. Should I be concerned??


Just watched a news program that says the government doesn't want people to call it the swine flu- could prejudice pigs! how funny is that?
Quoting beell:
i don't know what's worse. 257 posts from JFV or 257 posts about JFV lol


You have to admit.. we missed him while he was gone.... he did liven up the blog.
Quoting beell:
i don't know what's worse. 257 posts from JFV or 257 posts about JFV lol


257 posts about
2029. Drakoen
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Just so I'm sure who to listen to is Drakoen a meteorologist? I only want a tropical meteorologist's perspective on the lastest GFS runs, not stolen rubbish.


Looks like I get my own personal stalker this season.
Quoting zoomiami:


Just watched a news program that says the government doesn't want people to call it the swine flu- could prejudice pigs! how funny is that?



Ummm ahhhh nope.. not gonna say it
Quoting beell:
i don't know what's worse. 257 posts from JFV or 257 posts about JFV lol


There both hilarious so it really doesn't make much a difference to me...
2032. HTV
Quoting zoomiami:


Just watched a news program that says the government doesn't want people to call it the swine flu- could prejudice pigs! how funny is that?

I believe the people of Jewish decent are the ones objecting. Doesn't look good to be Jewish and catch swine flu. Heard on the news they want to call it the Mexican Flu.
2033. beell
The people have spoken!
Photobucket

...hey, do we have a Phantom 5 yet?
Quoting Drakoen:


Looks like I get my own personal stalker this season.
you get them every season i like to call them drak groupies
Wow!
It begins around 144 hours from now...
2037. Patrap
Its the Pork Producers that want the name change..
Bad for Ham and Bacon sales.


We could call it the whine flu too.
2038. Drakoen
It looks like something that would take a few days to coalesce.
On a different note - our grandbaby flew home through New York this weekend, and came down with a virus. Certainly makes you wonder.
have ya taken the child to a doctor
Twin Storms again...
that shows 4 areas actually only one more to come then they all disappear
Quoting SevereHurricane:
Twin Storms again...


and look at what's off the coast of Africa there...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you get them every season i like to call them drak groupies


I'm not going to miss him frankly - drove me CRAZY and sent me several really horrible emails. I understand that I wasn't the only one. I am relieved he's not here.
Over the past few days, I have been keeping an eye on the GFS model for further consistency with tropical cyclogenesis in the SW Caribbean. Well, to my surprise, it has maintained remarkable consistency and, admittedly, is starting to gain my attention. It seems like several elements are starting to come together that could make tropical cyclogenesis seemingly plausible.

Sea surface temps have been steadily increasing in the Caribbean and have breached the magical 80F mark, but the depth of the warm water is not very impressive. Also, it appears that as this next frontal system passes the Eastern US, pressures will begin to decline in the Caribbean as a result of building high pressure over the Eastern US. Many people have made mention that a favorable, rather strong MJO pulse will be settling in over the Americas come this weekend which would result in enhanced convection over the Caribbean; as we all know tropical systems are organized convection. Finally, the computer models indicate that as the upper ridge currently over the Eastern US gets pushed southward into the Caribbean due to a deepening trough over the Great Lakes region, wind shear will significantly decrease to rather favorable for tropical cyclogenesis.

When you put all these factors together, it seems somewhat more plausible that we could see tropical cyclogenesis in the SW Caribbean beginning as early as this weekend. I will continue to monitor the computer models in regards to the possible evolution of this potential system.
18Z +168hrs

Quoting Drakoen:


Looks like I get my own personal stalker this season.


Just like the remnants of Karen, they never go away!!
He entertained and antagonized many. Is he bi-polar or have DID? Anyone know?
Hi Keeper: Yes, my daughter took him first thing on Monday morning. The doctor didn't seem to feel that it was an issue. He's much better today. Poor thing - he also got exposed to chicken pox (our 17 year old came down last week)
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...instead of Trekkies, we'll have Drakies.


LOL
Well I hate to say this (I really do) but I never believed JFV when he said he was having a son. The boy (whomever that is in his avatar) only looks about 17-19 years old.
2053. Drakoen
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Over the past few days, I have been keeping an eye on the GFS model for further consistency with tropical cyclogenesis in the SW Caribbean. Well, to my surprise, it has maintained remarkable consistency and, admittedly, is starting to gain my attention. It seems like several elements are starting to come together that could make tropical cyclogenesis seemingly plausible.

Sea surface temps have been steadily increasing in the Caribbean and have breached the magical 80F mark, but the depth of the warm water is not very impressive. Also, it appears that as this next frontal system passes the Eastern US, pressures will begin to decline in the Caribbean as a result of building high pressure over the Eastern US. Many people have made mention that a favorable, rather strong MJO pulse will be settling in over the Americas come this weekend which would result in enhanced convection over the Caribbean; as we all know tropical systems are organized convection. Finally, the computer models indicate that as the upper ridge currently over the Eastern US gets pushed southward into the Caribbean due to a deepening trough over the Great Lakes region, wind shear will significantly decrease to rather favorable for tropical cyclogenesis.

When you put all these factors together, it seems somewhat more plausible that we could see tropical cyclogenesis in the SW Caribbean beginning as early as this weekend. I will continue to monitor the computer models in regards to the possible evolution of this potential system.


The sub-equatorial ridge is advancing northward as the vorticity lobe of the TUTT moves northward and eastward as a series of upper level troughs move off the eastern seaboard.
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...instead of Trekkies, we'll have Drakies.


Star Drak, the movie... lol
2048. Troll I think - pretty sure he did it just to piss everyone off. When you get a reaction, you kind of start playing off of that.

Drak...my apologies to you for having so many stalkers...BUD.
2056. IKE
Looks like the blog is getting back to normal...LOL...

I see the GFS is showing it's consistency.
2057. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the blog is getting back to normal...LOL...

I see the GFS is showing it's consistency.


Hey Ike,

That's exactly what I said a few days ago.
2059. hahaguy
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the blog is getting back to normal...LOL...

I see the GFS is showing it's consistency.


Ya I'll give it credit it won't back off lol.
thats good zoo
2063. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


Hey Ike,

That's exactly what I said a few days ago.


Good evening Drak and everyone else.
2065. IKE
It almost reached 90 here today in the Florida panhandle. Summer is rapidly approaching.


"""During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.""".....

Won't be long now....lol....
Quoting Drakoen:


The sub-equatorial ridge is advancing northward as the vorticity lobe of the TUTT moves northward and eastward as a series of upper level troughs move off the eastern seaboard.


Just re-checked the computer models and you are correct in your analysis. It seems the lower and more favorable shear in the Caribbean would be resultant of the deepening trough pattern over the Great Lakes region.

By the way Drak, I look forward to the upcoming season especially in collaborating on our analysis. I love the job you have done with your analysis and you continue to impress me.
2067. IKE
Quoting StormW:
Later!

Oh...evening IKE!!


Good evening..glad to see you back.
Hi Ike, long time no chat.
Good evening Ike! Been a long time man. Hope all has been well with you. Look forward to the upcoming hurricane season.
I've decided that we are not having a hurricane season this year. Its "leap year", all storm will leap into next year.
2071. IKE
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Ike, long time no chat.


Hey zoo.

Let's see the first invest # is 90L. By the first of next week?

Go ahead...shoot me down.
Quoting Drakoen:


Hey Ike,

That's exactly what I said a few days ago.


This is the lack of humbleness I was refering to. There were others who said the same thing but there're not gloating about it. Rather arrogant if you ask me.
2073. IKE
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Good evening Ike! Been a long time man. Hope all has been well with you. Look forward to the upcoming hurricane season.


Doing fine. Ready for some action with no one hurt.

I'm looking forward to the season starting.
Quoting IKE:


Hey zoo.

Let's see the first invest # is 90L. By the first of next week?

Go ahead...shoot me down.


Given the latest computer models, that could actually be plausible Ike. Can't shoot you down there.
2075. Ossqss
Oh no another one. Unbelievable !

Wine Flu Hits Italy
The 18z+120h & 132h is showing increasing vorticity in the Carribean. Link
Maine heat! Link
2078. Drakoen
The Caribbean has cooled a little; probably the result of increased tradewinds anomalously 2-3m/s faster.

Quoting Ossqss:
Oh no another one. Unbelievable !

Wine Flu Hits Italy


SWMBO'ed has a wine flu also... every night at dinner.. she drinks some :)

Blog Refresh
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2080. Drakoen
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


This is the lack of humbleness I was refering to. There were others who said the same thing but there're not gloating about it.


You sound just like MLC. Even your syntax. I was just agreeing with Ike. Calm down.
Quoting IKE:


Hey zoo.

Let's see the first invest # is 90L. By the first of next week?

Go ahead...shoot me down.


Depending on timing it could be 90E

How ya doin Ike?
The heat went from the Caribbean to Maine. Well not really, but interesting how it balances out.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Depending on timing it could be 90E

How ya doin Ike?


I can't see your name without thinking "never again". How have you been?
Quoting Orcasystems:


SWMBO'ed has a wine flu also... every night at dinner.. she drinks some :)
Better the Wine Flu than the Whine Flu
2085. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Depending on timing it could be 90E

How ya doin Ike?


Doing fine. Hope you are.
Quoting emguy:
When systems do form in the SW Carribean, evolution usually occurs over the course of several days. Interesting that the MJO is arriving, and even more interesting that weather456 has observed the models directing a moisture surge in the SW Caribbean in the coming days(via the Pacific). Why? Well folks, a mid-low level low pressure area (not @ surface) has started to take shape in the SW Carribean this afternoon. You can observe this here (Look north of Costa Rica): www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

Should this hang around for a few days and catch the MJO and the moisture surge, this could make for some interesting discussion on this blog. More than likely, this will drift into Central America and fade, but it is a new cog in the wheel and the clock is ticking down on the GFS.

Mean time, I'm remaining highly skeptical (99%) that anything will make a go in the SW Caribbean. I still believe that the system in the GFS (despite the repetative runs), is convective feedback (as some have referenced, in affiliation with the referenced heat low). Also important to note that model genesis for SW Carib cyclones, especially in this time of year, can be pretty scetchy and typically doesn't verify.LinkLink


...much respect to those following the GFS and to weather wurus, but in this case I believe emguy has this nailed. However, I admit, there does seem to be a small mid-level circ. Will it do anything? I think not. Climatology doesn't support it, but conditions could improve. And, there's always low pressure in that area. I doubt this is different from anything that's stirred attention in the past. Hurricane season will be here soon enough. UGH! I, too, am looking forward to an uneventful land-falling season - may they all be fish!
Quoting Drakoen:
The Caribbean has cooled a little; probably the result of increased tradewinds anomalously 2-3m/s faster.



Just remember that the Caribbean can warm quickly once tradewinds decrease. Gotta hope the tradewinds can continue, but the computer models indicate that the tradewinds will decrease.
are there any wildfires on going in broward county or is it Collier?
Quoting zoomiami:


I can't see your name without thinking "never again". How have you been?


I'm doing good, yourself? Gone out to see your Mercats lately? I need a trip to the zoo myself, haven't been out there in years.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I'm doing good, yourself? Gone out to see your Mercats lately? I need a trip to the zoo myself, haven't been out there in years.


Not in the last two months - tax season- ick!

Driving up from Homestead today, looking at all the new construction, can you imagine if a Hurricane Andrew had gone through? It seems that everything that was built is in the evacuation zone, if we get a wet storm could be bad news for those who live there.
this is a vary good site too bookmark


Link
Well buddy toss me a pan and bang it on a car until it goes away! well Mr.Drakoen should I? I feel all scared Drak should I hug my pillow? I don't want the ghost cane hitting my house!!!
Thank you SIR!!!
2093. Drakoen
Quoting Vortex95:
Well buddy toss me a pan and bang it on a car until it goes away! well Mr.Drakoen should I? I feel all scared Drak should I hug my pillow? I don't want the ghost can hitting my house!!!
Thank you SIR!!!


I think you should take a Prozac...
I am amazed how well the monsoon features come together to make the Carib-Pacific region favorable for thunderstorm activity and reminds of the Equatorial West Pacific. With the advance of the MJO, the monsoon ridge which is currently over equatorial south America and East Pacific will pull north providing not only low shear but ample lift. This lift then in turns provide low pressure and enhanced inflow to sustain thunderstorms. It's going to be rather wet over there in the upcoming days and weeks.
2095. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


I think you should take a Prozac...


LOL.
lol even if I was making fun of JFV maybe I might just need it.
might need 2
Hey Ike! Aren't you suppose to be retired?
;-) good to see you.
2100. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hey Ike! Aren't you suppose to be retired?
;-) good to see you.


lol..
Link
At a large "business dinner" last night, a couple was discussing hurricane seeding and why our government should figure out a way to "kill storms." I thought seeding made a storm stronger? Anyway, I went searching and found this article. Easy reading and interesting.
2102. Drakoen
Quoting Vortex95:
lol even if I was making fun of JFV maybe I might just need it.


If you keep acting like that you'll need more than that...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hey Ike! Aren't you suppose to be retired?
;-) good to see you.


I was watching your photo and you look very beautiful.
2104. Patrap
The stress from the 09 Atlantic Cane Pre-Season is really..."wearing and tearing" some.
Dang, I come back in here after my self-imposed one week ban on ad-revenue hits to see the same thing.

This was originally due to youknowhom's blog about Arctic sea ice that included blantant cherry picking and a lot of rather bold assertions made as if He were some expert in that field. Waiting for He to predict an ice-free Arctic next year or blame the swine flu on my tailpipe (not his).

Now we cover volcanoes. That is all interesting, but the assertions about global warming, CO2, etc. have struck the same chord. When the carbon budget, climatology, atmo chem and modeling communities cannot successfully account for current sources and sinks of CO2, a tropical expert making wholesale statements about it all is goofy.

Please find something tropical met to discuss. How is the Sahel rainfall doing (our dust machine)? How about the advances in MJO modeling? Supplementing IR-measured SST's with microwave when there are clouds? Advances in storm surge modeling to include rainfall runoff and inundation near rivers? A thorough examination of historical proxies representing TC frequency and/or intensity? Something. Anything besides this mail-it-in what is my knee-jerk reaction to what this or that going to do to our planetary historically very low CO2 concentration (likely the limiting factor in a number of photosynthesis scenarios and other chemical processes).

Serious broken record feeling.

We will try to resume tropical studies in one week.

Take care, all.
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
This is the lack of humbleness I was refering to. There were others who said the same thing but there're not gloating about it. Rather arrogant if you ask me.



LOL, you must not have been here very long. That's how this blog thrives - on impotent arrogance. Some wouldn't know a hailstone from flagstone; but, if you like a 3-ring circus you'll love this blog. But, hey, it's also got some really great folks here, too - folks with real weather knowledge and the social skills to go with it. I've seen bricks with more personality than some. LOL. Enjoy! I'm sure the season will rock with excitement - fasten your seatbelt and hold on for the ride!
2107. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
The stress from the 09 Atlantic Cane Pre-Season is really..."wearing and tearing" some.


oh yeah...
Quoting atmoaggie:
Dang, I come back in here after my self-imposed one week ban on ad-revenue hits to see the same thing.

This was originally due to youknowhom's blog about Arctic sea ice that included blantant cherry picking and a lot of rather bold assertions made as if He were some expert in that field. Waiting for He to predict an ice-free Arctic next year or blame the swine flu on my tailpipe (not his).

Now we cover volcanoes. That is all interesting, but the assertions about global warming, CO2, etc. have struck the same chord. When the carbon budget, climatology, atmo chem and modeling communities cannot successfully account for current sources and sinks of CO2, a tropical expert making wholesale statements about it all is goofy.

Please find something tropical met to discuss. How is the Sahel rainfall doing (our dust machine)? How about the advances in MJO modeling? Supplementing IR-measured SST's with microwave when there are clouds? Advances in storm surge modeling to include rainfall runoff and inundation near rivers? A thorough examination of historical proxies representing TC frequency and/or intensity? Something. Anything besides this mail-it-in what is my knee-jerk reaction to what this or that going to do to our planetary historically very low CO2 concentration (likely the limiting factor in a number of photosynthesis scenarios and other chemical processes).

Serious broken record feeling.

We will try to resume tropical studies in one week.

Take care, all.


Hey, Atmo. Many appreciate that sentiment. See you soon...hey, we've got a CAT 5 down in the sCarib! Don't stay gone too long! Apparently, Dr. Masters is very concerned about it. ;P
Wow no one is talking about the New England heat at all. Portland ME had their first 90 in April ever today. And came 2 degrees away from tying their May record!
Quoting atmoaggie:
Dang, I come back in here after my self-imposed one week ban on ad-revenue hits to see the same thing.

This was originally due to youknowhom's blog about Arctic sea ice that included blantant cherry picking and a lot of rather bold assertions made as if He were some expert in that field. Waiting for He to predict an ice-free Arctic next year or blame the swine flu on my tailpipe (not his).

Now we cover volcanoes. That is all interesting, but the assertions about global warming, CO2, etc. have struck the same chord. When the carbon budget, climatology, atmo chem and modeling communities cannot successfully account for current sources and sinks of CO2, a tropical expert making wholesale statements about it all is goofy.

Please find something tropical met to discuss. How is the Sahel rainfall doing (our dust machine)? How about the advances in MJO modeling? Supplementing IR-measured SST's with microwave when there are clouds? Advances in storm surge modeling to include rainfall runoff and inundation near rivers? A thorough examination of historical proxies representing TC frequency and/or intensity? Something. Anything besides this mail-it-in what is my knee-jerk reaction to what this or that going to do to our planetary historically very low CO2 concentration (likely the limiting factor in a number of photosynthesis scenarios and other chemical processes).

Serious broken record feeling.

We will try to resume tropical studies in one week.

Take care, all.


It's his blog - he can discuss whatever he wants.
Hi everyone from 25 degrees south latitude off the Atacama Desert area of Chili. Yesterday visited La Serena and the people there are concerned because the desert (some parts haven't had rain for over 1,000 years) is creeping south each year and within 100 years they will be in a completely rainless zone. They're doing things like putting in fog nets on hills and gathering enough fog from the Humbolt Current cold air to supply small villages. They also have some dams. Mostly their green plants live on the morning fog from the current. Fascinating area. Hard to think of no rain for a thousand years. Also got told on our ship (We're on Radiance of the Seas) that because of swine flu all of our Mexico Ports are cancelled and all RCCL ships are immediately ceasing to call at Mexican Ports. Hardship for a whole lot of people. We visit Peru next. Being in the Humbolt current is wierd. It's cool and misty every morning - never really warm. It's like rolling on a cool breeze. Our guide yesterday says they only really get good rain from El Nino years and then the dead desert near La Serena blooms. Cool Cruise and we cross the equator with ceremony before getting home. Surfmom I've seen some gorgeous surf for you the whole way - what a lot of clean, clear, freezing water. Nobody swims in it without wetsuits I guess. Bye for now from Tropic Traveler. Oh, by the way, hubby won a free cruise out of Miami in Dec by winning ships Texas Hold'm Tournament. He's walking on air!
2113. Drakoen
For what is worth the 18z NOGAPS is show a strong increase in convection around Panama at the end of the run within in broad area of low pressure:
Link

NOGAPS Low/Mid trop. flow
So when is Florida getting it, I know it's coming :p)
2116. hahaguy
Sure got quiet.
My thoughts on swine flu are summarized here:

2045. cchsweatherman 10:49 PM GMT on April 28, 2009

Lol you sound like you just read Joe Lundberg's blog (Accuweather) to come up with that summary.
Latest Video From Futuremet Productions


This is the best video I made so far

It turned that my voice and accent was not the problem, it was the crappy screen recording software.

The voice is a lot clear now

Enjoy!





Text Version


Unlike diabatic processes, no external heating or cooling is involved. The thermal changes are simply occurring within the air parcel. Now, how is this possible? Does the air parcel spontaneously increases or decreases its temperature. The answer is NO! Because energy cannot be created or destroyed. Atmospheric differences in pressure are what drive adiabatic cooling and warming processes. As you may already know, cold air sinks and warm air rises, due to the fact that warmer air is less dense and more buoyant than cooler air.

Adiabatic cooling process....(rising air)

For example: an air parcel at 1000mb is about 25C and the air at about 700mb is about 10c. Obviously, the air at the surface will rise because it is warmer. So, what is it that actually occurs within the air parcel that causes it rise?. Because the surface temperatures are higher than the temperatures at 700b, the air molecules within the air parcel will move faster. That is because heat is energy, and this means air molecules within the air parcel at 1000mb will have higher kinetic energy than the air parcel at above at 700mb. As the air molecules move faster, they will then acquire more space, and so 1 liter of air will now occupy less air molecules than it did previously, and the pressure within the parcel decreases as a result. The air molecules within the air parcel at the surface also clash and transfer energy with one another. Now, this causes the molecules to gradually lose their kinetic energy and since heat is energy, the molecules will start to cool down. Eventually, when the rising air parcel reaches 700mb, it will replace the 700mb stable air parcel. That air parcel will then start sinking


Adiabatic Warming process (sinking air)

The exact opposite happens when the air sinking.....


High pressure systems warm the ambient air adiabatically, because the pressure is higher, which means that the air molecules are more contracted. Synoptic scale anticyclones often help bring much warmer and nicer weather after a cold front during the winter (depends on which side of the anticyclones you are located).



Now, adiabatic processes are not strictly applied to atmospheric dynamics. An inflated air balloon or a deflating tire. For example, the air within a tire cools rapidly if you deflate, because it expands and cools adiabatically as it gushes out of the tire.

Thanks for watching!
By the way good evening all!
2121. hahaguy
Hey caneaddict
that post I made also summarizes my thoughts of twitter as well.



Oh, can't wait for the first major twittercane to hit this year!
2123. hahaguy
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
that post I made also summarizes my thoughts of twitter as well.



Oh, can't wait for the first major twittercane to hit this year!


That's why I only got a facebook page. lol
2124. Ossqss
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
that post I made also summarizes my thoughts of twitter as well.



Oh, can't wait for the first major twittercane to hit this year!


I taut I taw a twittercane,




sorry I could not stop my fingers.

Watch out for the webicane of emails on this flu thing. People are too quick to click and gettin picked.

Link
I got out of facebook when 790 people tried to friend me in less than a month. Jeepers Fracking Cripes!
lol Where'd everyone go? Sure got quiet in here...

JFV makes it more interesting. Nothing to talk about anymore (well, until the next GFS comes out anyways). lol
well evening all back
Blog Refresh
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Daily Area of Interest
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It is quiet in here...is everyone watching American Idol? I hate that show.
If a model was to hint at something hitting the Southeast coast of Florida.. it would liven up in a hurry.
Quoting CaneWarning:
It is quiet in here...is everyone watching American Idol? I hate that show.


Hockey :)
I'm here...just updating my site...
Quoting Orcasystems:
If a model was to hint at something hitting the Southeast coast of Florida.. it would liven up in a hurry.


If the GFS is right, this place will be really busy in a few days.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
724 PM MDT TUE APR 28 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CULBERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM MDT/915 PM CDT/


* AT 722 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY...OR 24 MILES SOUTH OF CARLSBAD...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTHERN EDDY COUNTY...
Quoting CaneAddict:
I'm here...just updating my site...


That may be the longest link expression I have ever seen.
Quoting CaneWarning:


If the GFS is right, this place will be really busy in a few days.


I hope something happens soon... I am ready for a new blog anytime now
Quoting CaneWarning:
It is quiet in here...is everyone watching American Idol? I hate that show.


That's what I'm thinking. I think Kris is going. lol

OK, anyways back to weather..
Quoting Orcasystems:


That may be the longest link expression I have ever seen.


I was thinking the same thing!
The following storms affected South Carolina in September

1959 - Gracie
1979 - David
1989 - Hugo
1999 - Floyd

I am feeling a bit superstitious about 09/09/09

ADDENDEM: Oh... and if I am not mistaken - all were ENSO NEUTRAL with the exception of 1999 La Nina
post reserved for later comment.
we now have 4 confirmed cases of swine flu in toronto canada
Quoting KEHCharleston:
The following storms affected South Carolina in September

1959 - Gracie
1979 - David
1989 - Hugo
1999 - Floyd

I am feeling a bit superstitious about 09/09/09

ADDENDEM: Oh... and if I am not mistaken - all were ENSO NEUTRAL years

Interesting. That reminds me, it'll be the 40th anniversary of Camille this year, too.
Quoting Weather456:


I was watching your photo and you look very beautiful.


Well uhh.. thanks.
But thats my mother back in '92. My 8 year old head next to her.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well uhh.. thanks.
But thats my mother back in '92. My 8 year old head next to her.


lol
As I've been stating since the end of last week,I believe around may 5th we'll begin to have something to watch in EITHER the BOC or western carib,the GOM w/be very active the next 2 months,IMO....got my twitter.com/sarasotaweather.......
Howdy all!!
omg the temps are almost exactly the same in miami for 5 days all lows are 72. lol
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Howdy all!!

Howdy, you! :)
hello cat
real quiet tonight
So what shall we discuss tonight? Please something other than JFV, swine flu, twitter or idol.
2153. hahaguy
Thought I would come back to see a busy blog but I was wrong .. lol
2154. Ossqss
Even the earthquake news is slow !

Magnitude Location Time
5.2 Near the coast of Aisen, Chile 11 hours ago Map
5.3 Hokkaido, Japan region 15 hours ago Map
5.8 Guerrero, Mexico Yesterday Map
good to see so many familiar names, just dropping in to see if swine flu mania made it here or if weather was still priority.

lurking more often in a few weeks

as for the topic of volcanoes, there does seem to be an increase in worldwide activity as of late.
eeeeeeek!!!



New York City-sized ice collapses off Antarctica

holy mother of GOD!

Link
2157. Ossqss
Ok, you asked for it.

Link
Well for those few left in here..I'm out! Good night all..and feel free to drop some comments on my short but sweet tropical update :)!

Canewatch Tropical Update #1
Believe it or not, Antarctica is on the list of one of my dream vacations!
2160. Ossqss
Uh, does this not sound like an Accuweather Hurricane forcast.

Most people blame boredom on the circumstances, but psychologists say this emotion is highly subjective and rooted in aspects of consciousness—and that levels of boredom vary among people. Some individuals are less—and others considerably more—likely to be bored than others.


Antartica for vacation sounds, interestinig but yet difficult. Just my take
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Believe it or not, Antarctica is on the list of one of my dream vacations!

You're too much. That's way tooooooo cold for me!
2162. Patrap
Vostok,Antartica wu-page

Current Conditions

Vostok, Antarctica (Airport)
Updated: 3 hr 8 min 18 sec ago

Clear

- 86 F
2163. hahaguy
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Believe it or not, Antarctica is on the list of one of my dream vacations!


Too cold for me.
Dang, I wouldn't last one second in Antartica with a -147 F degree windchill.
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Believe it or not, Antarctica is on the list of one of my dream vacations!


I would rate that right up with Toronto as a vacation area...
So the names for the 2009 season are:
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

Which one scares you the most? Which will have the least predictable track? Which will make US landfall first?
lol
2168. Patrap
All the names
that fall in the Months of Aug-Sept.
2169. hahaguy
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
So the names for the 2009 season are:
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

Which one scares you the most? Which will have the least predictable track? Which will make US landfall first?


I say Erika cause my ex's name was Erika LOL.
We went on an Antarctic cruise last Feb/March :)
sam the looks like it could be a vary pwerfull storm


have you evere her of sam i AM???
don't come to toronto we have enough here all ready
Naw it will be Fred trying to outdo Wilma ;)
Fred, Grace, and Kate

2175. hahaguy
NO you're all wrong it's gonna be Grace lol. Grace seems like she would be a nasty one.
2176. Patrap
Wife's name is Teresa and spelled the same.

Im going with that one.

Im predicting it to be a Phish though.

There are a lot of pics from the Antarctic cruise up on our blog.
just 20 more minutes until the 00Z run start lol
I love to vacation places I can learn something. I'd love to pack through Patagonia, visit the Galapagos, participate in the excavation of an ancient South American site, restore a home in Slovenia even visit the Yukon.
2180. Ossqss
We don't want Wanda. Last on the list !
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
So the names for the 2009 season are:
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

Which one scares you the most? Which will have the least predictable track? Which will make US landfall first?


I pick Mindy....
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
So the names for the 2009 season are:
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

Which one scares you the most? Which will have the least predictable track? Which will make US landfall first?


I'm afraid of Larry. I know someone named Larry and he's crazy.
Quoting hahaguy:
NO you're all wrong it's gonna be Grace lol. Grace seems like she would be a nasty one.


That's what I'm thinking- a category 5.
2184. Patrap
May 15th is the E-Pac Season opener.

Tickets on sale at all ticketmasters.








Oh oh... my name is on that list... thats not good :(
Grace is sort of like Gracie--had an interesting track and was the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the SC/GA coast between 1893 and 1989. And it is 50 years since Grace hit.

danny grace nicholas ida too sounds like it could be scary
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
There are a lot of pics from the Antarctic cruise up on our blog.

I'm totally jealous! Did you get to go ashore? I heard that if you are really getting close you have to travel on a vessel thay doesn't have stabilizers (ice breaker) so you are more likely to get sea sick. Is that true?
We might potentially say hi to madame Ana soon
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
So the names for the 2009 season are:
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

Which one scares you the most? Which will have the least predictable track? Which will make US landfall first?


The ones that stand out the most for me are:

Danny
Ida
Kate
Rose
Victor
Wanda
First US landfall is Claudette. Category 5 is Fred. The storm that can't make up it's mind is Joaquin!
2194. JRRP
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
So the names for the 2009 season are:
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

Which one scares you the most? Which will have the least predictable track? Which will make US landfall first?

Fred and Grace
danny grace nicholas ida too sounds like it could be scary
The one that is coming for me sounds the scariest...
Let me find the blog entry about our trip and I'll post the link CatastrophicDL. We did not go ashore, we were in a huge cruise ship with 2600 passengers and over a thousand crew. Ships with over 500 people are not allowed to land, but we went through the Gerlache strait and it was stunning---also Cape Horn, and the Falklands, where we did land. I'll post the link to our cruise blog in a few minutes.
2198. Patrap
We could see a season Like 92..when the A storm didnt Develop till Late August..


But I doubt it.

Bud's
IF....
If they make it to my name... I have been invited to The Keys... Tampa and Destin... hmm I wonder where I will go :)
so pat my good bud sir are you awaiting the 00z gfs run this evening
2202. hahaguy
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so pat my good bud sir are you awaiting the 00z gfs run this evening


Oh god LMAO
2203. Patrap




Chic' Masks fore the Fashion minded Flu crowd.
Quoting Orcasystems:
IF....
If they make it to my name... I have been invited to The Keys... Tampa and Destin... hmm I wonder where I will go :)
i don't see orca or fish on the list
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i don't see orca or fish on the list


Noooo, but Sam is :)
2206. Patrap
By time the GFS runs..
I'll be Gone Found Slumber easily.

I never track Ghosts.
Theres a-plenty of them in dem Machines Lad's.

The real Ones are the Challenge.

Not no Foo-Foo Storms from "Craig" Heads servers crunching alpha Bits.


Reposting the Antarctic cruise blog because it ended up right at #2200 behind the cut:

Link
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Link


Thank you so much for sharing that. What an awesome experience that must have been. One of those once in a lifetime experiences. Fabulous and great pictures!
Thanks!
Antarctic cruises are supposed to be severely restricted after 2010. Next cruise season will be the time to go. (Nov 09/Mar 10) I would NOT recommend going in a smaller ship just to be able to land. The storms that we had were bad. Bad, bad, bad. You would not want to be in a smaller ship.
that top one looks like a kangaroo face pat
get your kangaroo mask here

but really my property manger gave me a 100 dollar mask today in the event i have an outbreak in the building black with two purple filters on it top of the line air in thougt filters out though bottom works good he also deliver a protocol work sheet to follow and who to report to any suspicus cases of sickness i may come across
also order 10 cases 20 cans of lysol diseficant and 10 bottles of dettoil they are really worried here but i think there makin more of it then is needed but its a job and like he said i am exposed to 2000 to 3000 people daily with everyone in the building its just like sars all over again
Patrap that's the biggest wardrobe malfunction I've seen since Janet Jackson.
2213. Patrap



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Germs are everywhere and impossible not to pick up. Eighty percent of all infectious diseases are passed along by human contact, either direct or indirect, viruses like pneumonia, salmonella and the common cold. Beyond the people you and your family come in contact with, what can you do about all the door handles, faucets, desktops, telephones and more you touch everyday? This is where SkinWear comes in.

We also went to Havana Cuba for a week last July.
Quoting Patrap:
...Not no Foo-Foo Storms from "Craig" Heads servers crunching alpha Bits.


...say it ain't so, Pat. We know this is gonna be a CAT 5 headed to NOLA - isn't it? ;)
The GFS is showing Ana and Bill forming over the next couple of weeks. That's crazy. It's been consistent...
StSimons, good to know. So far I've been taking my kids on my trips, but the more extreme ones I want to do without them. How do you watch 7 kids on the Incan Trail? :o) I need to join a travel club or get a friend who wants to go the same places I do.
We've been thinking about Maccu Piccu or Tibet next year. Probably Maccu Piccu and the Inca highlands, but we'll see.
I would recommend Havana Cuba before the embargo is lifted and it is still quaint and not overrun with tourists.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I would recommend Havana Cuba before the embargo is lifted and it is still quaint and not overrun with tourists.


I think thats where we might go this year.. give us a chance to try the new upgrades they are doing waiting for the embargo to lift.

Quoting weatherblog:
The GFS is showing Ana and Bill forming over the next couple of weeks. That's crazy. It's been consistent...


I still don't even think Ana is going to develop, in all honesty. I would give her a significantly higher chance than Bill, though. Last I saw, the GFS developed a tropical storm east of the Leeward Islands while Ana was meandering in the Caribbean. Bill quickly ended up getting ripped to shreds by strong vertical shear.

The reason I'm so against the possible Bill developing is because we don't even have Ana yet, nor do we even know if we'll get Ana out of this Caribbean surge of moisture. In addition, I don't think there has ever been a tropical storm in the Atlantic basin historical record that has formed east of the Leeward Islands in May. Not even a tropical depression.
Circumventing the embargo is easy. All you have to do is have a piece of paper for the Cuban customs people to stamp instead of your passport. We flew to Mexico City, and from there to Havana. Easy as pie.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Circumventing the embargo is easy. All you have to do is have a piece of paper for the Cuban customs people to stamp instead of your passport. We flew to Mexico City, and from there to Havana. Easy as pie.


Or... be a Canadian :)
OK, the way I see it now....
Sam will track across the Southern tip of Florida.. then up the westcaost of Florida, causing massive surf (for SurfMom) in Tampa, prior to landfall... then back into the GOM to recover...and then off to Destin :)
Those are good points KoritheMan. There's always a first time, but before believing a forecast for something that has never happened before, the evidence...would have to be more compelling.

On the other hand, Portland ME hit 92 today. They had never hit 90 in April before since records began in the late 1800s. So things that never happened before---can still happen!
Well Canadians are freer when it comes to travel ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I still don't even think Ana is going to develop, in all honesty. I would give her a significantly higher chance than Bill, though. Last I saw, the GFS developed a tropical storm east of the Leeward Islands while Ana was meandering in the Caribbean. Bill quickly ended up getting ripped to shreds by strong vertical shear.

The reason I'm so against the possible Bill developing is because we don't even have Ana yet, nor do we even know if we'll get Ana out of this Caribbean surge of moisture. In addition, I don't think there has ever been a tropical storm in the Atlantic basin historical record that has formed east of the Leeward Islands in May. Not even a tropical depression.


I know that. I just find it strange that the GFS is showing that this early. Whether or nor Ana or Bill forms, it's still interesting to see. If anything it's a good indicator that we may have a busy hurricane season coming up very soon.
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, the way I see it now....
Sam will track across the Southern tip of Florida.. then up the westcaost of Florida, causing massive surf (for SurfMom) in Tampa, prior to landfall... then back into the GOM to recover...and then off to Destin :)


Please don't construe our posts as needless drama and blatant overhype. That isn't what we're trying to do.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Those are good points KoritheMan. There's always a first time, but before believing a forecast for something that has never happened before, the evidence...would have to be more compelling.

On the other hand, Portland ME hit 92 today. They had never hit 90 in April before since records began in the late 1800s. So things that never happened before---can still happen!


I'm not as strongly against Ana as I am Bill, because Ana's development could be in the Caribbean, which is the spot where we would normally expect to see tropical cyclogenesis during the month of May, not east of the Leewards.

And as for the northeastern U.S. heat wave, it is rather remarkable, from a meteorological perspective. New York City was at 79F around 12:00 AM EDT two nights ago, which was warmer than Key West. That's not something that you would normally expect to see.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm not as strongly against Ana as I am Bill, because Ana's development could be in the Caribbean, which is the spot where we would normally expect to see tropical cyclogenesis during the month of May, not east of the Leewards.

And as for the northeastern U.S. heat wave, it is rather remarkable, from a meteorological perspective. New York City was at 79F around 12:00 AM EDT two nights ago, which was warmer than Key West. That's not something that you would normally expect to see.


That's so crazy. Very strange.
we made it to 83.1 yesterday normals are low 60's but back down into mid 50's for highs today so ya u could say its been a rollercoaster ride for sure
commet there all way a 1st you no
Something remarkable today--sometimes the highest readings in the country were in Maine today! Take a look at this:

Link
Computer models go through transitional periods between winter/summer(spring) and from summer to winter(fall). The equations in the computer models used for winter forecasting are different than the equations used for the summer regime. The result of such transitional periods are that models will spin up many false systems as they transition to a summer regime for example.
Quoting quasigeostropic:
Computer models go through transitional periods between winter/summer(spring) and from summer to winter(fall). The equations in the computer models used for winter forecasting are different than the equations used for the summer regime. The result of such transitional periods are that models will spin up many false systems as they transition to a summer regime for example.

More "sound" reasoning! Thanks!
I've got toturn in early tonight. See ya'll tomorrow. Take Care!
the mode runs may be on too some in but am not sure if we can this get the wund shear to die down then we may have some in here

but that is a big IF!


hmmmm may be???

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 29APR)
==============================================
An area of convection (96W) located at 14.4N 117.3E or 215 NM west of Manila, Philippines. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery shows an elongated low level circulation center with deep convection near the center and broken convective banding wrapping into the southern periphery. A 2423z TRMM pass shows deep convective banding curving into the eastern flank of the system with broken convecting banding to the south. Upper level analysis shows the system is in an area of low vertical wind shear and located under the upper level ridge axis. Animated water vapor imagery shows good equatorward outflow and poleward outflow appears to be suppressed by surface ridging to the north.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1007 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is FAIR.

---
Philippines or Vietnam needs to stay on alert it is getting active in the southwestern part of the West Pacific.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Weather Special Advisory #2
=======================================

At 11:00 AM PhST, two low pressure areas was estimated at 220 kms east of Bicol region (13.5N 126.0E) and another low at 300 kms southwest of central Luzon (14.5N 117.0E). These two weather disturbane is expected to bring occasional rains over southern Luzon and Visayas becoming frequent over the provinces of Quezon, Camarines Norte, Comarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Marinduque, Masbate, and northern Sama which may trigger flash flooding.

Residents in these areas are advised to take the necessary precautionary measurements.
Moisture is beginning to make its way into the Caribbean. However, as Taz pointed out, shear levels are still substantially prohibitive, as high as 50 knots in some areas of the southwest Caribbean, where our potential tropical cyclone could develop in the coming days.

Shear does seem to be gradually decreasing in the region, however, but it is still nowhere near favorable levels.
  • The highest maximum temperature of 46.0°C (120ºF) was recorded at Barmer (Rajasthan).

    ===

    Can't imagine it being so hot, by the way this is India.
  • God Patrap that surgical mask photo with the "anime-like" girl in black is freaking me out.
    morning
    although the gfs is still showing cyclogenesis in the southwest caribbean, the odds are being stacked against this possibility. there is little vorticity in the area as well as high noeth easterly wind shear of about 50-60 knots. any system which tries to form in this area will be completly destroyed. i suspect we will have to wait for the middle of may for something to happen
    Quoting stoormfury:
    morning
    although the gfs is still showing cyclogenesis in the southwest caribbean, the odds are being stacked against this possibility. there is little vorticity in the area as well as high noeth easterly wind shear of about 50-60 knots. any system which tries to form in this area will be completly destroyed. i suspect we will have to wait for the middle of may for something to happen


    Shears supposed to drop dramatically.
    Hi everyone are you alll ready for a spectacular day! I'm sure my buddies Mr. Patrap and Mr.Drakoen are!
    The 6Z GFS continues to forecast tropical development in the SW Caribbean but I'm not 100% sure the development may take place in he Caribbean. However, with wind shear forecast to be between 10-20 knots, marginal SSTs and ample moisture and lift along with anomalously low pressure the area will become a breeding ground for anything that tries to develop. The monsoon trough is a notorious feature in tropical cyclogeneisis in the Eastern Pacific and occasional (as in this case) it extends across Central America in the SW Caribbean, typically in May, June and October. The area lacks model supports except for some models which show high rainfall surrounded by broad low pressure. It has been consistent with development but inconsistent in track. The factors that support the GFS outweighs the factors that don't.

    A child in Texas is the first person known to have died of swine flu outside Mexico, where it may have killed as many as 159 people.

    Officials in Washington gave no other details of the patient. Federal health officials had been warning the virus would probably claim lives in the US.

    The US earlier confirmed it was treating 64 cases of the virus.

    Germany became the latest country to confirm cases of the H1N1 virus, reporting three sufferers.

    ..Link

    While tragic, perspective still needed.. people sadly die in their hundreds from influenza every year.
    But a new flu, highly contagious, to which most or all people have no resistance doesn't show up every year.

    While you are correct in that panic obviously is not advised I would be wary of developments surrounding this.
    2249. beell
    The power of the internet!
    A google for "swine flu jokes"

    Results 1 - 10 of about 2,090,000 for swine flu jokes. (0.11 seconds)
    Quoting JFLORIDA:
    But a new flu, highly contagious, to which most or all people have no resistance doesn't show up every year.

    While you are correct in that panic obviously is not advised I would be wary of developments surrounding this.


    It's a H1N1 strain... most of us do have some limited resistance to this due to the fact that's the usual strain that happens every year. Of course, it's likely to have mutated so we can't be sure.

    If it was the H5N1 strain, we might be in more trouble.

    Link
    It is a novel mixture of strains that seems to be spreading with ease (possibly even unimpeded) to younger age groups.

    I have not seen a reference to which anything occurring before 1960 would lend resistance.

    But its severalty might be reduced by later encountered strains.
    Morning Everyone...

    Back at ya Mel

    Quoting JFLORIDA:
    It is a novel mixture of strains that seems to be spreading with ease (possibly even unimpeded) to younger age groups.

    I have not seen a reference to which anything occurring before 1960 would lend resistance.

    But its severalty might be reduced by later encountered strains.


    Indeed. Young children do not have the self-discipline to exercise the discipline of hand washing, cough hygiene, and not touching their eyes, nose and mouth without washing hands.
    If I had a young one in daycare or school, I would be concerned.

    For the rest of us, if you do the above regime, no worries.
    Quoting KEHCharleston:


    Indeed. Young children do not have the self-discipline to exercise the discipline of hand washing, cough hygiene, and not touching their eyes, nose and mouth without washing hands.
    If I had a young one in daycare or school, I would be concerned.

    For the rest of us, if you do the above regime, no worries.


    ....hopefully.......

    From whats been occurring it is a airborne spreader I believe.
    Quoting JFLORIDA:


    ....hopefully.......

    If I understand the mechanism by which this respiratory flu spreads, it is by infected particulate matter that has been expectorated/coughed by the infected person. That stuff is too heavy to stay in the air long, so you would have to inhale it while the person is coughing, or physically transfer it to your respiratory tract (Hence the importance of cough hygiene, washing hands and not touching eye, nose, mouth).

    If this is not accurate, I trust someone in the medical community will correct my errors.
    2256. RTLSNK
    57* F in Macon, Georgia this morning
    92% heavy air, partly cloudy sky, nice.

    Course young children often have runny noses, etc - and certainly share germs with wild abandon. My concern here, is that even before a child starts coughing, he is spreading germs.
    Quoting KEHCharleston:
    If I understand the mechanism by which this respiratory flu spreads, it is by infected particulate matter that has been expectorated by the infected person. That stuff is too heavy to stay in the air long, so you would have to inhale it while the person is coughing, or physically transfer it to your respiratory tract (Hence the importance of cough hygiene, washing hands and not touching eye, nose, mouth).

    If this is not accurate, I trust someone in the medical community will correct my errors.


    no that sounds about right, drying being a major inhibitor of transmission. Then Again I haven't seen the mechanics of this one. What if it can dry out and is more easily is aerosoled by its chemistry/surface features? What effect will temp and humidity have on it?
    G'morning RTLSNK
    66F here in Charleston. Tack on another 10 degrees for our expected high.
    2260. RTLSNK
    Hi KEH, Macon is interesting, there is a jump of 25 to 30 degrees difference from morning temps to afternoon temps lately. Today is supposed to be 83* F.
    Wow..
    Not unusual to have a 20 degree difference between low at night and high during the day (if the sky is clear)in Charleston. But 25-30 degree difference without a front moving through! That is something else.
    Y'all have had some significant weather this spring.
    2262. RTLSNK
    We've had some impressive light shows around here in the last month as well as record water levels.

    Headed out the door, will talk to you later!
    Some poeple like to post funny pics and post funny things not really understanding the true impact of the threat of the Swine Virus. There are 36000 deaths that occur annually from the common Flu. If 4 times than normal become sick from the Swine than in a normal year then at least 120,000 plus deaths will occur. Keeping in mind that the common Flu will still kill 36,000 also. So now we are over 150,000 deaths just in the US from the Flu Virus of all kinds. I'm not trying to hype the seriousness of this but, being within close touch with the Medical Field I do get a sense of the complete impact that could be felt. I'm sure to receieve cracked emails and post that i am scaring people for no reason. But, if this thing spreads as expected then reality hit. Keep in mind, the elderly and the very young will be a highest risk which the Swine has not hit yet because they was not the travelers. There is a 18 to 72 hour incubation period but, it takes 7-10 days to see it spread, so by next late next week we will have a more sense as to just how quickly this is spreading and the total impact.
    Just a thought, do you think the Government wants people out of work and creating anything negative with such a fragile economy. Could they be underplaying this also?

    Everyone stay Safe and have a good Day!
    Just kind of a rambling thought on the flu...several cases in San Diego county (hubby is there right now working) and I was thinking - alot of these folks come across the border every day for work and school...I think with what is already there with the flu, we are going to see ALOT more coming up in the next week or so. Kids in school (little ones and teenagers as well) don't get it when you tell them to cover the mouth when they cough or wash their hands whenever they touch something (doorknobs, desks, handing papers back to each other from desk to desk when the teacher passes something out). How many things do you "touch" each day...how many opportunities do you have to wash your hands throughout the day when you're a student? How many times do you touch your face or pop gum or candy into your mouth?

    I don't believe in panic but I do believe in prevention.
    Quoting TampaSpin:
    Some poeple like to post funny pics and post funny things not really understanding the true impact of the threat of the Swine Virus. There are 36000 deaths that occur annually from the common Flu. If 4 times than normal become sick from the Swine than in a normal year then at least 120,000 plus deaths will occur. Keeping in mind that the common Flu will still kill 36,000 also. So now we are over 150,000 deaths just in the US from the Flu Virus of all kinds. I'm not trying to hype the seriousness of this but, being within close touch with the Medical Field I do get a sense of the complete impact that could be felt. I'm sure to receieve cracked emails and post that i am scaring people for no reason. But, if this thing spreads as expected then reality hit. Keep in mind, the elderly and the very young will be a highest risk which the Swine has not hit yet because they was not the travelers. There is a 7-10 incubation period, so by next late next week we will have a more sense as to just how quickly this is spreading and the total impact.
    Just a thought, do you think the Government wants people out of work and creating anything negative with such a fragile economy. Could they be underplaying this also?

    Everyone stay Safe and have a good Day!


    The media sure has hyped it.
    Quoting melwerle:
    Just kind of a rambling thought on the flu...several cases in San Diego county (hubby is there right now working) and I was thinking - alot of these folks come across the border every day for work and school...I think with what is already there with the flu, we are going to see ALOT more coming up in the next week or so. Kids in school (little ones and teenagers as well) don't get it when you tell them to cover the mouth when they cough or wash their hands whenever they touch something (doorknobs, desks, handing papers back to each other from desk to desk when the teacher passes something out). How many things do you "touch" each day...how many opportunities do you have to wash your hands throughout the day when you're a student? How many times do you touch your face or pop gum or candy into your mouth?

    I don't believe in panic but I do believe in prevention.


    This is why I went out and bought hand sanitizer. They make small bottles of it now that fit easily into a pocket.
    Blog Refresh
    Mirror Site

    Daily Area of Interest
    Click to enlarge


    Good morning all... 1 cup of coffee down... more to go :)
    2268. Ossqss
    I would encorage everyone to treat the flu item as if it were a hurricane 7 days out in the cone of uncertainty and build preparation of food stuffs and meds for fever etc. If you are going to build a hurrican kit, why not finish it sooner than later. If this thing hits near your home, you are not going to want to visit the stores with the hundreds of others who will panic at the last minute. Just like they do when a Hurrican is coming. Just my take. Be prepared and avoid being scared.
    Quoting CaneWarning:


    This is why I went out and bought hand sanitizer. They make small bottles of it now that fit easily into a pocket.


    There is also a product on the market called Benefect, its a 100% organic Hospital grade Disinfectant, all women should carry one in their purse.
    Quoting Ossqss:
    I would encorage everyone to treat the flu item as if it were a hurricane 7 days out in the cone of uncertainty and build preparation of food stuffs and meds for fever etc. If you are going to build a hurrican kit, why not finish it sooner than later. If this thing hits near your home, you are not going to want to visit the stores with the hundreds of others who will panic at the last minute. Just like they do when a Hurrican is coming. Just my take. Be prepared and avoid being scared.


    That's pretty smart thinking...GREAT idea...
    Quoting Ossqss:
    I would encorage everyone to treat the flu item as if it were a hurricane 7 days out in the cone of uncertainty and build preparation of food stuffs and meds for fever etc. If you are going to build a hurrican kit, why not finish it sooner than later. If this thing hits near your home, you are not going to want to visit the stores with the hundreds of others who will panic at the last minute. Just like they do when a Hurrican is coming. Just my take. Be prepared and avoid being scared.


    Plus, stores will run out of the most needed items. Yesterday I bought one of the last bottles of hand sanitizer.
    2272. Ossqss
    Be aware that the rules of engagement are different under the current state of gov. They can lock down an apartment complex or even a community in order to mitigate spread of the illness. That's their job right now. I certainly don't want to eat MRE's if that were to happen. Don't get me wrong, the chances are slim, but are still chances none the less.

    Quote from the phase 4 item

    Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted.
    2273. Patrap

    Galveston's Learning from Cuba About Hurricanes -- Finally!

    By David M. Kinchen
    Huntingtonnews.net Editor

    Galveston was severely battered last September by Hurricane Ike and there was much criticism about the lack of evacuation procedures on the barrier island. Lyda Ann Thomas, with her distinctive Texas drawl, became familiar to viewers of Houston television coverage of the storm -- including the present writer wondering if Ike would strike his new hometown of Port Lavaca, about 100 miles down the Gulf coast. It didn't get to us, although many people in Port Lavaca evacuated and plywood became the exterior decor of choice for homes and businesses.
    2274. Patrap
    Quoting Ossqss:
    Be aware that the rules of engagement are different under the current state of gov. They can lock down an apartment complex or even a community in order to mitigate spread of the illness. That's their job right now. I certainly don't want to eat MRE's if that were to happen. Don't get me wrong, the chances are slim, but are still chances non the less.



    2275. Ossqss
    I took a different view of this last night when I found out my boss's 2 year old is in the hospital with severe flu like symoptoms in Ohio. They just left from Tampa 2 days ago. I am hoping for the best.
    I'm not seeing any formations now.....likethe last 2 days.
    My vote is for Hurricane Larry just because it sounds funny.
    ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) -- A child in Texas has become the first fatality from swine flu in the United States, the acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday.
    There is an update on the U.S. death from the swine flu. The baby was actually from Mexico and only came to the U.S. for treatment of the flu.

    Link
    2281. lhwhelk
    Quoting CaneWarning:


    This is why I went out and bought hand sanitizer. They make small bottles of it now that fit easily into a pocket.
    Please, if you use hand sanitizer, do not let your pets lick your hands. It is toxic (high alcohol content). You can ask your vet to confirm this.
    Quoting lhwhelk:
    Please, if you use hand sanitizer, do not let your pets lick your hands. It is toxic (high alcohol content). You can ask your vet to confirm this.


    I don't use it at home around the pets. I only use it when I'm in public.
    New Blog - Come on June 1!
    Watch the BOC area this weekend or the area just south of the caymans,IMO....