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Volcanic eruptions in Chile and Africa disrupt aviation; Arizona fire nears record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Eastern Arizona's massive Wallow Fire grew to 700 square miles over the weekend, bringing it very close to being Arizona's largest fire on record. The 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles) currently holds that distinction. However, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will spread over Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico this afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds of 15 - 20 mph are expected, with very low relative humidities of 5 - 15%. With the Wallow Fire just 10% contained, this means that the fire will likely expand significantly today and become Arizona's largest fire on record. Firefighting conditions are expected to improve on Tuesday and Wednesday, with much weaker winds, but stronger winds may return again on Thursday. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the Horseshoe Two fire, has grown to 200 square miles, and is 40% contained. This is Arizona's 5th largest fire on record.


Figure 1. Smoke from the Horseshoe Two fire in Southeast Arizona, taken on Friday, June 10, 2011. Image credit: wunderphotographeer rixx.

The Earth is active
We now have two volcanic eruptions that are emitting large ash clouds causing significant disruptions to aircraft flights. Last week, the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano in Chile erupted, sending aloft an ash cloud that circled the Southern Hemisphere, canceling flights thousands of miles away in Australia and New Zealand. At approximately 5pm EDT on Sunday, a new major eruption occurred in Africa at Eritrea's Nabro volcano. This volcano has no eruptions in historical records, but sent an ash plume over 21,000 feet (13 km) high over Eritrea after an earthquake of magnitude 5.7 rocked the area. The ash has now spread to the northwest over Sudan, and is expected to spread to the north over Egypt later today. On Tuesday, the ash is expected to get caught in a west-to-east jet stream flow, and spread over much of the Middle East. The latest forecasts from Meteo France (Figure 3) show impacts to Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Tuesday morning. The latest MODIS image from NASA shows the plume nicely.


Figure 2. Eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano, Chile as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite at 18:05 UTC on June 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Forecast issued at 8am EDT by Meteo France showing the expected spread of the ash plume from Eritrea's Nabro volcano. Ash between 35,000 and 45,000 feet altitude (light dashed lines) is predicted to move over the Middle East, including southern Israel, by 2am EDT (0600 Z) on Tuesday, June 14. The volcano is mis-identified as the Dubbi volcano on this image.

The Atlantic is quiet
In the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke
Horseshoe 2 fire smoke
Smoke from the Horseshoe 2 fire in the Chiricahua Mountains, SE Arizona Late in the day.

Volcano

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. IKE
I got .06 inches of rain yesterday.

Looks like another east-PAC system @ 114 hours on the 6Z GFS....


502. IKE
.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE ALONG 27N ANCHORED BY 1017 MB HIGH PRES NEAR
26.5N87W WILL SHIFT S TO ALONG 25N WED THEN WILL MOVE BACK N TO
ALONG 28N BY FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE FAR SE GULF SAT.
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE FAR SE GULF SAT.

oh great, that'll give the kids something to argue about this weekend.
Good morning to all. A Tropical wave is moving thru the Eastern Caribbean today and it will likely cause the all time June record of rainfall in San Juan to be broken.

.CLIMATE...JUNE 2011 IS JUST 0.40 INCH(ES) AWAY FROM BECOMING THE
WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. THE 10.56 INCHES OF RAIN THUS FAR REPRESENTS THE WETTEST
START TO JUNE ON RECORD. JUNE 1965 WAS THE WETTEST JUNE ON RECORD
WITH A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 10.96 INCHES.
506. MahFL
Quoting aquak9:
yeah-boy...figured ya might've read back and seen the media announcement.

Ouch on your weather, major ouch. We're only a coupla degrees off that here, and our little icon for today is SMOKE.


Good morning Aqua, I went tubing yesterday at Ichetucknee Springs, was good fun. On the rain front we had about .75 inches.
Smoke is as you say forcast for today. Last night before the storms the smell of smoke was the highest I've experienced this year.

Morning ya'll.... the Twaves that r still not getting props in the WAtl and the CAR r finding more than acceptable conditions in the EPac.... will be interesting to see if a second June EPac storm will spin up to a major....



What's left of the Twave my local wxman was watching late last week....
Scott declares wildfire, drought emergency in Fla.

The Associated Press

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency in Florida due to wildfires and drought conditions.

The declaration Monday puts the state Division of Emergency Management in charge of the situation.

That includes deploying personnel and resources of the Florida National Guard and other state and local government agencies.

The order notes extreme to exceptional drought conditions are expanding across southeastern and north Florida. They are expected to worsen in the new few weeks.

More than 300 active wildfires were burning on about 115,583 acres across the state Monday.

A small brush fire in Brevard County that was contained from last week flared up on Monday and jumped the fire lines. The fire moved into Volusia County and quickly consumed over 1200 acres burning at-least 10 homes and 38 hunting camps. The fire is 0% contained.

509. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE FAR SE GULF SAT.

oh great, that'll give the kids something to argue about this weekend.
lol
Quoting emcf30:
Scott declares wildfire, drought emergency in Fla.

The Associated Press

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Gov. Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency in Florida due to wildfires and drought conditions.

The declaration Monday puts the state Division of Emergency Management in charge of the situation.

That includes deploying personnel and resources of the Florida National Guard and other state and local government agencies.

The order notes extreme to exceptional drought conditions are expanding across southeastern and north Florida. They are expected to worsen in the new few weeks.

More than 300 active wildfires were burning on about 115,583 acres across the state Monday.

A small brush fire in Brevard County that was contained from last week flared up on Monday and jumped the fire lines. The fire moved into Volusia County and quickly consumed over 1200 acres burning at-least 10 homes and 38 hunting camps. The fire is 0% contained.

too late thankfully its starting to rain no way does this compare with the big fire yr that yr it did not rain to july its been beautiful here in e. fl. this yr yesterday got to a high about 89 heard it reached 100f in orlando
Does anyone from the committee know the status on the volcano on Naboo?
Well, I finally got on. Who else made it through??
Woke up to the smell of smoke outside this morning, emcf.
VOLUSIA COUNTY, Fla. -- Fire crews are monitoring 30 different wildfires burning in Volusia County. WFTV learned that residents are going to be dealing with all of these fires for months to come.

No matter how many tractors or thousands of gallons of water, officials said it could be months before thick smoke and flames go away for good.

"This is a mother nature thing that is going to take us inches of rain to get us out of this,” said an official....


I hear someone fiddling.
Better chances for rain on the East side of the peninsula today... waiting for the magic.
Morning All

Good drenching in Jupiter yesterday :-)

This from the Miami NWS

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN TURN, THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME EAST NORTHEAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS THAT A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
,
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND PERHAPS
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS.
....
517. IKE
Testing.
Looking forward to every GFS dissection on that WAVE
Quoting PcolaDan:
They should have just asked Grothar. I'm sure he still remembers how to speak it from his childhood years.

A dictionary of the extinct language of ancient Mesopotamia has been completed after 90 years of work.



They could have had my copy and saved all that work.
Back then we used to call those people,(संस्कृतम्. Served then right.
According to WFTV there are 30 different wildfires burning in my county. (Volusia)
Reposting this because WUGround is not behaving like its normal site this morning.
Sites back up
me
Quoting Grothar:
Well, I finally got on. Who else made it through??



Not me. hehehe

G'morning.
It's so hot the wunderground site was shut down for 2 hrs
Quoting FLdewey:
Better chances for rain on the East side of the peninsula today... waiting for the magic.


I got rain yesterday, the drops almost covered the hoods on the vehicles.
That was a big blog hole.
Good morning! If you haven't seen it, check out this video:
The Hurricanes Of 2004 From An Emergency Management Perspective
Ooooops....
WU
musta been way too far underground for a couple of hours...

...or perhaps
the WU Fiber wasn't far enough underground
heh heh
see below
||
\/
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters
The long-range GFS obviously shouldn't be taken too seriously. However, it has proven to be a useful tool in the past when it is very consistent on a specific pattern in the long range. That kind of a hint can cue a forecaster into other things that may result in some kind of outcome. The goal is to find that outcome. The GFS is only one piece to the puzzle, and we very well may lose that piece if the model suddenly becomes inconsistent, which happens a lot.
Quoting RitaEvac:
It's so hot the wunderground site was shut down for 2 hrs



...its hard to find a mechanic in SF at 5am.
Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters


Thanks Dr. Masters.
Fiber cut, happens quiet often in the refineries. Causes pandomonium when people's internet and email go down.
Try this link- http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/earthquakes volcanos/ash-cloud-spreads-as-african-volcano-erup tion-eases/20074.html
Quoting Waltanater:
Does anyone from the committee know the status on the volcano on Naboo?

Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters


Thank you for letting us know what occured.
Quoting aquak9:
Ike?

Approx 1.3 inches.

Good morning and good day, wherever/whenever you might be.

Isn't it a little too early to be seeing triple digits?

Good Evening.

Sodden state to get even wetter as rains continue
NSW is coping a battering from the elements, with rain and heavy winds expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

The NSW mid-north coast is coping the worst of it, with Red Rock's Bowling Club losing most of its roof in a wild storm this morning.

The Daily Examiner reports that residents up to half a kilometre away heard a large explosion as iron from the roof cut the town's power supply.

Grinspoon bassist Joe Hansen was one of the locals who heard the roof come off, which woke him up.

He said it sounded like a "super loud bang", which was over in just seconds.

"A twister or something like that had come through...it was pretty full on," he said.
A Corindi SES spokesperson said a large weather system and strong winds ripped through the town and caused damage at Corindi and nearby Red Rock where the local bowling club lost some of its roof.

The SES has received 330 requests for assistance, with 86 per cent of these now complete, since the event began on Monday.

Most of the calls have been for leaking roofs, roof damage and sandbagging requests as well as trees down.

The Central Coast and the Hunter have been the areas with the hardest hit, although emergency services workers will today shift their focus the mid north coast.

Rain is continuing to batter the mid-north coast today and is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

According to BOM up to 115mm(4.53in) of rain has fallen during the past 48 hours to 9 am today. However, the rain intensity has increased during the past nine hours, with 50mm falling during this period.

Further heavy rain is forecast for the next 6 to 12 hours.

This rain is expected to cause minor to moderate flooding along the Macleay River at Georges Creek, Bellbrook and Kempsey from this afternoon onwards.

The flood warning for Bellinger River has been upgraded to moderate with up to 100mm(3.94in) of rain forecasted for the next 12 hours.

Although rain has eased since 6am today, further heavy rain in the order of 50 to 100 millimetres is forecast for the next 12 hours.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) a broad low pressure system is deepening on the northern coast of New South Wales.

A line of continuous heavy showers and thunderstorms is tracking in from the east in the Coffs Harbour/Woolgoolga area focusing some of the highest falls in this area for the next few hours, but homes have not been inundated at this stage.

Over the next 24 hours, BOM said the heaviest rain would remain south of this low centre over the Mid North Coast, Hunter Valley and eastern parts of the Northern Tablelands.

Further south there are about 50 rural properties isolated west of Kempsey and Port Macquarie due to closure of country roads.

There is widespread flooding on the Pacific Highway between Grafton and Kempsey and the potential for flash flooding in northern parts of the state.

Since 9am yesterday Wooli Creek has received 170mm of rain, Bellingen 159mm(6.26in), Yamba 155mm(6.10in) and Coffs Harbour 123mm(4.84in).

There are flood warnings for a number of rivers including the Hastings Manning, Orara and Nambucca.
GFS still consistent with an area of high pressure ballooning on the Yucatan Peninsula. This is a very good set-up for TC's to develop, if all other pieces of the puzzle fit.

Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters



Thank you, Dr. M. We appreciate the info.
Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters

I thought there was something wrong with my net or the connection between Australia and USA.
7.6% done hurricane season :)
0-0-0
Quoting Levi32:
The long-range GFS obviously shouldn't be taken too seriously. However, it has proven to be a useful tool in the past when it is very consistent on a specific pattern in the long range. That kind of a hint can cue a forecaster into other things that may result in some kind of outcome. The goal is to find that outcome. The GFS is only one piece to the puzzle, and we very well may lose that piece if the model suddenly becomes inconsistent, which happens a lot.


What is important to follow is if other models join the GFS scenario in next runs. If that occurs, then we have game on!
Quoting Patrap:



...its hard to find a mechanic in SF at 5am.


Especially a fiber cable specialist
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


What is important to follow is if other models join the GFS scenario in next runs. If that occurs, then we have game on!


Yes, though it is also fun to try to beat the models to it, and decide whether the GFS scenario could hold water or not. That's why other clues exist besides the GFS.
-- can't breathe --

oh! hi everyone! whew. That was KREEPY
547. Jax82
I now know why my neighborhood has flags in the yard, its flag day, go figure! Everythings a little greener today thanks to the rain last night, and now life can go on now that the wunderground blog is back up and running :)
Not good:

CURRENT ANOMALIES


30 DAY FORECAST:
Kempsey residents ordered to evacuate
Tuesday June 14, 2011 - 19:55 EST

The State Emergency Service has issued an evacuation order for businesses and residents in the Kempsey CBD, as the flood situation worsens.

The Kempsey Bridge is predicted to reach 6.4 metres(21ft) between 1:00am and 3:00am (AEST), which could cause the levee to overtop.

This could lead to inundation of the city centre and residents are being advised to evacuate within the next four hours.

Meanwhile, SES crews are keeping a close eye on river levels in other parts of the mid north coast, as heavy rain continues to fall across the region.

Flood warnings are current for the Bellinger, Nambucca, Orara, Macleay, Hastings and Manning Rivers, with water levels continuing to rise in some areas.

This afternoon the SES began evacuating around 400 residents in villages across the Lower Macleay as a precaution, saying those areas will become isolated later this evening.

Near Bellingen about 800 residents remain isolated in the Thora Valley.

The SES rescue officer Bill Shipp says it will be a while before the river falls.

"It could be a couple of days," he said.

"Because it takes a fair while for the water to come down - that's if the rain stays as it is, but if it gets more rain coming it could take a bit longer."

Further rain is forecast, with the severe weather expected to move slowly south.

The weather bureau is also forecasting dangerous surf conditions for coastal activities, such as swimming, surfing and rock fishing.


- ABC
I got a bit or rain yesterday too (W. Lake Worth, FL), but only about .15". I have a rain barrel set at one of our rain gutter down spouts and know that it takes ~.25" to fill up the 55 gal drum with roof run-off. It's about 2/3 filled. Hopefully we'll get some more today.


Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Not me. hehehe

G'morning.


Glad to see you all made it through. Thought we got hit by a late season apocalypse.
Quoting Hurrykane:
Not good:

CURRENT ANOMALIES


30 DAY FORECAST:


Nope. When the Gulf of Guinea cools, it allows for moisture to work further north (A higher ITCZ) which puts a damper on SAL, ultimately allowing for better defined waves which could develop.
Quoting aquak9:
-- can't breathe --

oh! hi everyone! whew. That was KREEPY



Hi, Aqua. Easy now, we can all relax. :)
Quoting Patrap:
Happy Flag Day 2011 America



Indeed, Pat.
Quoting JeffMasters:
Sorry for the downtime. I haven't heard the final report yet, but initial indications were that a fiber cut in San Francisco was responsible.

Jeff Masters
I thought it must be a DOS attack, maybe a disgruntled troll! Thanks for letting us know, Dr. M.
Hundreds evacuated as NSW rivers rise



More than 800 residents on the New South Wales mid-north coast are being evacuated tonight as river levels continue to rise.

Many local roads are closed and some upriver communities are already isolated.

The latest town to be affected is Kempsey, where the Macleay River could breach levee banks about 3:00am on Wednesday morning.

State Emergency Service (SES) spokesman David Webber says authorities are keeping an eye on several rivers and are also watching the weather as it moves further south.

"We do have evacuation orders currently in place for Smithtown, Jerseyfield, Chincilla and some streets in the Gladstone area as well as the CBD in Kempsey," he said.

"We do have evacuation centres for those residents. We're also are monitoring the weather system as it moves slowly south.

"We're looking at the central coast and northwards over tomorrow morning and early tomorrow afternoon."

The SES began evacuating residents in the Lower Macleay Valley late this afternoon.

Near Bellingen, about 800 residents remain isolated in the Thora Valley and SES rescue officer Bill Shipp says it will be a while before the river falls.

"It could be a couple of days, because it takes a fair while for the water to come down, that's if the rain stays as it is, but if it gets more rain coming it could take a bit longer," he said.

The wild weather lashing the region , north of Coffs Harbour, this morning.

The Red Rock bowling club lost part of its roof and about 10 homes were also damaged.

More heavy rain is forecast for this evening.

Flood warnings are current for the Bellinger, Nambucca, Orara, Macleay, Hastings and Manning Rivers, with water levels continuing to rise in some areas.

More sections of the Pacific Highway are closed due to widespread flooding.

The Pacific Highway has been closed at Kempsey, between Clybucca and south of Kempsey, and it will remain closed at Corindi, about 50 kilometres south of Grafton, until at least midnight.

Major detour routes in the area are also closed, including the Oxley Highway between Port Macquarie and Walcha and the Orara Way between Coffs Harbour and Grafton.
Surely it was global warming... or the volcano.
Quoting RickWPB:
I got a bit or rain yesterday too (W. Lake Worth, FL), but only about .15". I have a rain barrel set at one of our rain gutter down spouts and know that it takes ~.25" to fill up the 55 gal drum with roof run-off. It's about 2/3 filled. Hopefully we'll get some more today.




Almost an inch fell here in RPB. That was a good storm for us.
A break in the ridge over Texas continues to show up on the ECMWF ensembles by Day 10. Any moisture available in the southern Gulf of Mexico at that time would be in a position to drift north towards Texas in that pattern.

Quoting Levi32:


Yes, though it is also fun to try to beat the models to it, and decide whether the GFS scenario could hold water or not. That's why other clues exist besides the GFS.


Not sure what the locals are seeing but I hope they're right!

Dry weather pattern continues...
By Anya Sehgal - bio | email


Forecast Discussion

Tuesday June 14, 2011

High pressure will be the rule of our weather pattern over the next several days. The presence of the high, which science calls a "heat ridge", resulted in very hot temperatures and dry conditions. Many locations in and around the Triangle will be flirting with the 100 degree mark, some breaking records, for each of the next six or seven days.The forecast for SE TX will be unchanged through the next ten days. The computer model outlooks are intolerable for Texas, implying no rain and enough surface moisture to make the heat of the day unbearable.

We are in dire need of rainfall. We are now -18.73 inches below average in terms of yearly rainfall totals. In fact the Climate Predication Center says we need over 15 inches of rainfall to solve our severe drought over SETX. It doesn't look like we are going to see any appreciable rainfall in the short term. However, some of the long-range computer models are indicating that a tropical disturbance will bring our region that badly needed rain until -maybe- June 23 or 24

The tropics are quiet for now, with a disturbance east of the Windward Islands the only feature worth watching by the end of June.

12 News HD Storm Team Meteorologist Ayna Sehgal
Quoting Levi32:
A break in the ridge over Texas continues to show up on the ECMWF ensembles by Day 10. Any moisture available in the southern Gulf of Mexico at that time would be in a position to drift north towards Texas in that pattern.



Hope
Quoting Levi32:
A break in the ridge over Texas continues to show up on the ECMWF ensembles by Day 10. Any moisture available in the southern Gulf of Mexico at that time would be in a position to drift north towards Texas in that pattern.



Good eye Levi!
Quoting Levi32:
A break in the ridge over Texas continues to show up on the ECMWF ensembles by Day 10. Any moisture available in the southern Gulf of Mexico at that time would be in a position to drift north towards Texas in that pattern.



Lol. That answered my question. :)
keep Hope..

Alive
Seems as if Nabro has calmed down. "False Alarm, nothing to see here, move along"

http://volcanism.wordpress.com/2011/06/14/nabro-e ruption-calming-down/
Whew, was having severe blog withdrawal there for a while!
568. SLU
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. That answered my question. :)


Lol. She was probably citing the GFS as well.
Houston is around 20 or so inches below normal
Quoting Grothar:


Glad to see you all made it through. Thought we got hit by a late season apocalypse.


I guess this means that when the big quake sends
California sliding "off the edge"
it takes the Wu servers out to sea...
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


I guess this means that when the big quake sends
California sliding "off the edge"
it takes the Wu servers out to sea...


hmmmm...we need to get the servers in Michigan where it belongs
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


I guess this means that when the big quake sends
California sliding "off the edge"
it takes the Wu servers out to sea...

I would of thought there would be back-up servers somewhere else.
The tropical wave near the Antilles shows up well here...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nope. When the Gulf of Guinea cools, it allows for moisture to work further north (A higher ITCZ) which puts a damper on SAL, ultimately allowing for better defined waves which could develop.


..Which is exactly why he/she said "not good".
Quoting Levi32:


Lol. She was probably citing the GFS as well.


Probably so. We're all keeping that "hope" alive. And our fingers crossed. :)
Quoting RitaEvac:


Hope
Never lose Hope, when you have gone 10 months with little to know rain that is all you have, hope and faith.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


..Which is exactly why he/she said "not good".


I know. Just explaining it for the people who didn't...
Very brief update from me, not much going on.
Watching for Arlene later this month 6/14/11
Wu server nervousness?


The blogs use only a fraction of the server Load on a busy day,,

3% on a busy day on avg during a Cane threat.
Quoting hydrus:


so one off NC and one in the GOM..have we ever had that happen before?


Well, according to this... we are gonna have fun this week ...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I know. Just explaining it for the people who didn't...


I guess I misread the nope as disagreeing instead of agreeing. Whoops XD
Quoting AussieStorm:
Kempsey residents ordered to evacuate
Tuesday June 14, 2011 - 19:55 EST

The State Emergency Service has issued an evacuation order for businesses and residents in the Kempsey CBD, as the flood situation worsens.

The Kempsey Bridge is predicted to reach 6.4 metres(21ft) between 1:00am and 3:00am (AEST), which could cause the levee to overtop.

This could lead to inundation of the city centre and residents are being advised to evacuate within the next four hours.


- ABC


You have real problems when your bridge starts to rise. Next thing it will float away.
Oh yeah...

NEW BLOG
The NAEFS also has a break over the gulf, but oriented more towards the northeast. It is formed by a trough-split from an east coast trough that moves down near the north gulf coast and reaches towards an area of low heights in the Bay of Campeche.

..pssssssssst,,NEW BLOG



This drying of the Southern U.S. and increased precipitation in the Northern U.S. is expected to occur because of a fundamental shift in the large scale circulation of the atmosphere. The jet stream will retreat poleward, and rain-bearing storms that travel along the jet will have more moisture to precipitate out, since more water vapor can evaporate into a warmer atmosphere.
Quoting ncstorm:


so one off NC and one in the GOM..have we ever had that happen before?
Almost, the gulf low is the interesting one. If it were to happen, it would probably hang around awhile.
Hey,

Obama is visiting Puerto Rico today.

Last time we had a President in the island for an official visit was JFK in 1961.

Hopefully he puts an end to the colony.
591. MahFL
Smoke visible from the many fires.

Wow.. the final Joplin death toll is at 153. CNN even listed them all by name...

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/13/joplin-torna dos-final-death-toll-at-153-city-says/?hpt=hp_t2
Quoting Tygor:
Glad that some of the Floridian folk are receiving spotted showers. If you aren't one of the lucky ones, just act like a Texan and give up on rain altogether. 103 all week and no rain in sight.


I was so excited to hear that aqua got rain that I had to run right out and see what today's Boca storm brought me. Well, I am glad to report that I received.......................................... .........(building anticipation)...............................

10 drops!!!!

Yes, 10 whole drops were in my rain gauge!! I felt very lucky considering that yesterday I only found 3 drops in there.

Well, I think I will act like a Texan now - at least the lighting was interesting.