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Volatile Setup for Severe Weather in Southern Plains on Friday, Saturday

By: Bob Henson 1:49 PM GMT on May 08, 2015

The ingredients are in place for a major multi-day outbreak of severe weather from Friday into the weekend, including the possibility of strong, long-track tornadoes. Early on Friday, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center placed part of southwest Oklahoma under a moderate risk of severe weather for Friday, with a moderate-risk area covering a broader swath from western KS to southwest OK on Saturday. I would not be surprised to see a localized upgrade to high risk somewhere in this swath on Saturday.


Figure 1. Convective outlooks for Friday and Saturday, May 8 and 9, issued early Friday morning by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.


The tornado potential for Friday will be heavily influenced by an outflow boundary that formed late Thursday, separating rain-cooled air over Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle (temperatures and dew points early Friday in the 50s to low 60s F) and very warm, humid air just to the south (temperatures and dew points in the low 70s). This boundary will attempt to push back north as a warm front on Friday and should be positioned somewhere near the Red River area of Oklahoma/Texas by late afternoon. Near this boundary, surface air will converge and surface winds will have a strong easterly component. With southwesterly winds expected just a few thousand feet above the surface, this will enhance the vertical wind shear that produces rotation in supercell thunderstorms. The potential for strong tornadoes is greatest when strong vertical shear is present in the lowest kilometer of the atmosphere, and when high temperatures and moisture values are also present in that lowest kilometer. Together, these tend to produce thunderstorms with low cloud bases and intense rotation near those bases. Any supercell that roots itself near the warm front and moves east or northeast along it will be a particular threat for producing tornadoes, although tornadic supercells are possible throughout the moderate-risk area. Flash flooding could be a serious threat as well, especially across parts of central Oklahoma and north-central Texas that have seen 6” to 10” of rain over the last several days (see Figure 3 below). One important caveat: several of the 00Z Friday model runs, as well as several recent runs of the hourly-updated HRRR and RAP mesoscale models, suggest that a large storm complex will form early in the day across west Texas and move across western Oklahoma, as was the case on Thursday. Storms were beginning to form west of Lubbock and south of Abilene at 8:30 am CDT, supporting this scenario. Should this activity increase, it would act to reinforce the outflow boundary and could markedly suppress the risk of supercells and tornadoes across parts of the current moderate and enhanced risk areas, though supercells could still form in pockets where the air mass is less affected. This situation may become quite geographically complex through the day, adding to the challenge for forecasters.

A sprawling severe threat for Saturday
Forecast models have agreed for the last several days that the stubborn upper low over the Southwest will finally make its move onto the Plains on Saturday. Instability may be a bit less than on Friday, but still more than adequate for high-end supercells. Moreover, howling upper-level winds and strong dynamics associated with the low will lead to very high vertical wind shear and dangerous, fast-moving storms over a broad area along and in front of a sharpening surface low in eastern Colorado and a dry line extending south across western Oklahoma into north Texas. Many cells could be moving at 40 - 50 mph. Widespread severe weather is almost a certainty on Saturday, and the risk of strong, long-track tornadoes may also cover an unusually large area (see Figure 2). Faster storm motion will help reduce the flash-flood risk somewhat, although storms rooted near the surface low will be slower-moving. Once again, if morning thunderstorms turn out to be quite extensive, the risk of significant severe weather will be tamped down.


Figure 2. Surface winds (flags) and significant tornado parameter (STP, in colored areas) at 7:00 p.m. CDT Saturday, May 9, as projected by the 0000 GMT Friday run of the NAM model. The STP is based on several measures of wind shear, instability, and cloud-base height. STP values of 8 to 11, as predicted here for western Oklahoma, are near the top end of those seen in major outbreaks, such as the Super Outbreak of April 2011 (see an example from that day). Image credit: College of DuPage.


Sunday could bring yet another round of severe weather, with the focus this time pushing toward eastern Kansas and Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa. The risk on Sunday will be highly contingent on the amount of rain-cooled air produced by storms late Saturday toward the south. If the air mass can recover by Sunday afternoon, wind shear and instability again look favorable for potentially tornadic supercells, especially along the warm front that should be across Iowa by then.

Weather Underground is planning to cover the severe weather outbreak on Saturday in our experimental live blog, which you can access through a banner at the top of the home page. We’ve also activated a live blog on Subtropical Storm Ana. In addition, Jeff Masters and I will be posting updates at this blog on both events during the weekend. Jeff will have a complete update later today on Subtropical Storm Ana, which continues to gradually develop off the Southeast coast. Ana was being investigated by a hurricane-hunter aircraft on Friday morning.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. Flooding on Thursday night, May 7, in downtown Gainesville, TX, just south of the Oklahoma-Texas border. Photo credit: @TheMaverick21, used with permission.

Time for photos
Time for photos
We took a break here to shoot photos and do some time-lapse photography.

Severe Weather Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Edit* Doc. Henson
Thanks dok henson!
Thank you Mr. Henson..The same area over and over.
" I would not be surprised to see a localized upgrade to high risk somewhere in this swath on Saturday."

We all wouldn't be.
Thanks Mr. Henson.
Based on the SOI data in the last 30 days, I believe it is safe to say we have a Solidly strong El Nino on the way. Today alone reads -32, which is incredible for the day
Thank You Mr. Henson; Ana watching this morning aside, I am praying for our folks in the Mid-West over the weekend. Not a very promising situation unfolding; here the current Conus jet per GFS (pushing into the Texas Panhandle and Mid-West by tomorrow) which will help with the cloud rotation; that combined with a strong low coming though is a classic set-up for a potential tornado outbreak situation.

There might be a Blizzard side too! Powerful Spring storm.

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 8h 8 hours ago
GFS 00z forecasts 20-40 inches of snow in western South Dakota ... poss blizzard criteria w/wind this weekend
Raise your hand if you think that Saturday will be a HIGH RISK day.

*raises hand*
Quoting 8. StormTrackerScott:

There might be a Blizzard side too! Powerful Spring storm.

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 8h 8 hours ago
GFS 00z forecasts 20-40 inches of snow in western South Dakota ... poss blizzard criteria w/wind this weekend



HOLY GAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THERE'S NO WAY THAT CAN BE RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
from the lat blog........




Big Ridge of High pressure continues to set up shop over Australia as a result the SOI is tanking and cold water is upwelling both North and South of Australia.

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -32.38



scott.....this has been explained time and time again....when there is tropical activity near the tahitian islands.....we see this same negative spike......we saw this two months ago with the tropical cyclone activity....we saw this 5 months ago with the same....however....after the tropical cyclones....we've seen the soi daily values retreat back to neutral values...and thus why the more important values of the 30 day SOI and the 90 day SOI are in the neutral range
Quoting 6. WeatherConvoy:

Based on the SOI data in the last 30 days, I believe it is safe to say we have a Solidly strong El Nino on the way. Today alone reads -32, which is incredible for the day


I don't think there's a question anymore that we get a Strong El-Nino. Infact its coming sooner rather than later.

Recon ascending, are they done already? Or are they going to make another pass?

Altitude: 3773 gpm
14. JRRP
And here is the ULL over the SW US to the far left of this CIMMS chart:

Quoting 13. Torito:

Recon ascending, are they done already? Or are they going to make another pass?

Altitude: 3773 gpm


Mr. Paris, come around for another pass.

Mr. Tuvok, fire phasers at the core.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0542
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 AM CDT FRI MAY 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NM AND TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081357Z - 081530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE
AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NM AND THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. A SURFACE-BASED SEVERE RISK
SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME A CONCERN BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK.

DISCUSSION...LIKELY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED
NEAR/EAST OF THE TX/NM BORDER VICINITY IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
CLOVIS/WEST OF LUBBOCK AS OF 1345Z. A LEAD WEAK/EMBEDDED IMPULSE MAY
BE INFLUENCING THIS DEVELOPMENT NEAR A BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHWARD-RETURNING MOISTURE WITH LOWER/MIDDLE 60S
F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM MIDLAND AND
AMARILLO /WHICH WAS NORTH OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/ REFLECT VERY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITH
RELATIVELY STRONG MID-HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUPPORTIVE OF
40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SCENARIO APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF INITIALLY
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...WITH SURFACE-BASED
STORMS INCLUDING A TORNADO RISK POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION BY AFTERNOON.
For people too lazy to follow the site... This map will autoupdate, so just.. you know the drill. SPAM F5.

HOLY GAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THERE'S NO WAY THAT CAN BE RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


i can't say that it's right or not...but i too saw that..so i took a look and local stations are expecting 6-12 inches and noaa forecasts it as 6 plus inches
Quoting 19. ricderr:

HOLY GAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THERE'S NO WAY THAT CAN BE RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


i can't say that it's right or not...but i too saw that..so i took a look and local stations are expecting 6-12 inches and noaa forecasts it as 6 plus inches


Okaaaaaaaayyyyyyyy...
Quoting 11. ricderr:

from the lat blog........




Big Ridge of High pressure continues to set up shop over Australia as a result the SOI is tanking and cold water is upwelling both North and South of Australia.

Daily contribution to SOI calculation -32.38



scott.....this has been explained time and time again....when there is tropical activity near the tahitian islands.....we see this same negative spike......we saw this two months ago with the tropical cyclone activity....we saw this 5 months ago with the same....however....after the tropical cyclones....we've seen the soi daily values retreat back to neutral values...and thus why the more important values of the 30 day SOI and the 90 day SOI are in the neutral range



LOL. You can go on that if you want but models continue to forecast lots of Ridging over Australia in general thru the long term. It was just a matter of time for this response to occur as colder water is beginning to upwell both North & South of Australia. The more we get these cooler anomalies to upwell the greater chance of keeping overall ridging over Australia. Outside of a system around day 7 or 8 across Northern Australia the pattern generally favors ridging. Bottomline this El-Nino is about to get its track shoes on.
Mr. Paris, come around for another pass.

Mr. Tuvok, fire phasers at the core.


i think you are not watching the real tar trek.....as it would be....mr checkov...come around for another pass...and mr sulu....fire phasers at the core....LOL
Today and tomorrow might have a problem with convection developing and sapping out some of the instability before the main severe weather events start, IMO.

I see purple in the Caribbean.
Quoting 22. ricderr:

Mr. Paris, come around for another pass.

Mr. Tuvok, fire phasers at the core.


i think you are not watching the real tar trek.....as it would be....mr checkov...come around for another pass...and mr sulu....fire phasers at the core....LOL


Voyager. Mr. Paris is the helmsman, Mr. Tuvok is the tactical officer.
Quoting 16. 62901IL:


Mr. Paris, come around for another pass.

Mr. Tuvok, fire phasers at the core.
Quoting 22. ricderr:
Mr. Paris, come around for another pass.

Mr. Tuvok, fire phasers at the core.


i think you are not watching the real tar trek.....as it would be....mr checkov...come around for another pass...and mr sulu....fire phasers at the core....LOL


Star Trek every day guys. Analyzers on aircraft: "Beam me up, Scotty."
Quoting 26. Torito:



Star Trek every day guys. Analyzers on aircraft: "Beam me up, Scotty."


Bridge to Engineering. Status of the warp core.
Quoting 24. HurricaneAndre:

I see purple in the Caribbean.


I don't know what that thing is on about.. I see nothing 48 hours out, other than broad areas of low pressure across pretty much all of it.

Quoting 27. 62901IL:


Bridge to Engineering. Status of the warp core.


KHANNNNNNNNNN! Alright, I'm done now before I get banned from the blog again.. LOL

Recon continues to rise. I'm guessing they are done, but not sure.

Altitude: 5075 gpm
First Severe Thunderstorm Warning Of The Day!!!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC219-081430-
/O.NEW.KLUB.SV.W.0056.150508T1403Z-150508T1430Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
903 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HOCKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 902 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LEVELLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LEVELLAND...SUNDOWN...WHITHARRAL...SMYER AND OPDYKE WEST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3348 10226 3346 10255 3375 10260 3381 10232
3378 10213 3364 10209
TIME...MOT...LOC 1402Z 211DEG 31KT 3356 10231
Quoting 29. Torito:



KHANNNNNNNNNN! Alright, I'm done now before I get banned from the blog again.. LOL

Recon continues to rise. I'm guessing they are done, but not sure.

Altitude: 5075 gpm


Mr. Paris, set a course. For home.
Quoting 19. ricderr:

HOLY GAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THERE'S NO WAY THAT CAN BE RIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


i can't say that it's right or not...but i too saw that..so i took a look and local stations are expecting 6-12 inches and noaa forecasts it as 6 plus inches
Well...



Source

Interestingly enough, the same area saw a rare and unseasonable early heavy snowfall this past September.
Quoting 31. 62901IL:


Mr. Paris, set a course. For home.


Confirmed.

AF304 Mission #03 into ANA
Type: Low-level Reconnaissance | Status: Finished
LOL. You can go on that if you want but models continue to forecast lots of Ridging over Australia in general thru the long term. It was just a matter of time for this response to occur as colder water is beginning to upwell both North & South of Australia. The more we get these cooler anomalies to upwell the greater chance of keeping overall ridging over Australia. Outside of a system around day 7 or 8 across Northern Australia the pattern generally favors ridging. Bottomline this El-Nino is about to get its track shoes on.

here let me help you and cut and paste from the aussie mets april report.....




Fluctuations of the SOI associated with the passage of
tropical systems near Darwin or Tahiti are common
during the first quarter of the year; it remains to be seen
whether recent values of the SOI are a result of
transient tropical weather systems, or a more sustained
shift towards El Niño-like conditions.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 may
indicate La Niña, while sustained negative values
below −7 may indicate El Niño. Values of between
about +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.
S
Quoting 23. CybrTeddy:

Today and tomorrow might have a problem with convection developing and sapping out some of the instability before the main severe weather events start, IMO.

Yeah, it's definitely something that needs to be monitored. Crapvection is the only concern I have for tomorrow. Today is a bit more conditional, although the potential still exists for a few strong tornadoes with any sustained discrete supercells (not unlike yesterday).
Surprised this hasn't been noticed yet. Reports of 2+ inch hail in this little popup hailstorm.. Amazing how such a small storm can make such a huge impact.

Quoting 36. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, it's definitely something that needs to be monitored. Crapvection is the only concern I have for tomorrow. Today is a bit more conditional.


Crapvection--when the storms underperform?


Center has been marked.
A couple observations from my part on STS Ana...

On this first image I've attached... you'll see I've highlighted two areas of low PW (Precip. Water) surrounding Ana, with the notable one being on the SW quadrant, which you can clearly see being ingested into the storm:



In this second image, it shows you an RH cross section view of how the 13Z RAP is viewing the moisture profile for Ana. I've highlighted how the NE quadrant low PW that I showed above as is moving around the storm into the back sided of it. As you can see is quite dry from mid to upper levels above Ana, but shouldn't be too dry for too long:



In my opinion, this try air is contaminating many of the wind reading (enhancing downdrafts).
Hello, Ana.

Quoting 38. Torito:

Surprised this hasn't been noticed yet. Reports of 2+ inch hail in this little popup hailstorm.. Amazing how such a small storm can make such a huge impact.




Some pretty nice thunderstorms way out in West Texas.
Quoting 43. Sfloridacat5:


Some pretty nice thunderstorms way out in West Texas.


Was looking at that too.. Reports of 1.5inch+ hail out there as well.

28  
WUUS54 KLUB 081403  
SVRLUB  
TXC219-081430-  
/O.NEW.KLUB.SV.W.0056.150508T1403Z-150508T1430Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX  
903 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL HOCKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 930 AM CDT  
 
* AT 902 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LEVELLAND...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
LEVELLAND...SUNDOWN...WHITHARRAL...SMYER AND OPDYKE WEST.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...  
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO  
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY  
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER  
COVERS THE ROAD.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3348 10226 3346 10255 3375 10260 3381 10232  
3378 10213 3364 10209  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1402Z 211DEG 31KT 3356 10231  
 
 
 
26  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab TX Page

Main Text Page

Quoting 39. 62901IL:



Crapvection--when the storms underperform?

Crapvection: morning/early afternoon convection that scours out moisture/reduces instability, lowering the risk for more significant severe weather later in the day.
@Patrap


For da last paragraph, I would read it as: "put on a hard hat and have fun outside.' LOL
Update from NHC at any moment.
Quoting 14. JRRP:




LOL
last year was a bit stronger but just about the same

Quoting 24. HurricaneAndre:


I see purple in the Caribbean.
Quoting 28. Torito:



I don't know what that thing is on about.. I see nothing 48 hours out, other than broad areas of low pressure across pretty much all of it.



yeah 48hrs out not much but later oh yeah there is something

Quoting 51. wunderkidcayman:


LOL
last year was a bit stronger but just about the same


yeah 48hrs out not much but later oh yeah there is something



Yeah, right at the end. looks like more of a mess than anything to me though.
Quoting 50. Torito:

Update from NHC at any moment.

more or less like in 8-10 mins yes
On another note, the Australian prime minister's chief business advisor thinks global warming is a hoax.

Link
Quoting 53. wunderkidcayman:

more or less like in 8-10 mins yes


In the last few frames the structure and appearance looks a bit more like a tropical system instead of subtropical.. however.. There really isn't much convection to go off of on the entire north west side of the system. I don't expect much change from the previous advisory, to be honest.

Quoting 52. Torito:



Yeah, right at the end. looks like more of a mess than anything to me though.

yes its actually something and not a mess

and with the upper level ridge over it as forecasted

and this there being one of the most suitable and likely place for early season storms to form

should certainly keep an eye on it more so late next week going on week after
Good morning.

For those interested,

New video discussion on Subtropical Storm Ana
Quoting 57. Levi32:
Good morning.

For those interested,

New video discussion on Subtropical Storm Ana


Haven't noticed any ads on your site yet. :P
Quoting 54. MaineGuy:

On another note, the Australian prime minister's chief business advisor thinks global warming is a hoax.

Link
global warming is a hoax Hahahahahahahahaha
so I guess they need some more extreme weather down there to wake em up

hocus pocus
Quoting 59. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
global warming is a hoax Hahahahahahahahaha
so I guess they need some more extreme weather down there to wake em up


Release the Kracken.
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 77.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River
South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case also within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ana.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 77.3 West. The storm has
been meandering during the past few hours, but is expected to begin
a north-northwestward motion later today. A turn toward the
northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h), with higher
gusts. Although Ana is expected to make the transition to a
tropical storm later today, only small changes in strength are
expected while the storm approaches the coastine over the next
couple of days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the
center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance Unit Aircraft was 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and possible within the watch areas, by Saturday evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters.
The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide
in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward
through South Carolina. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, over eastern portions
of North Carolina and South Carolina through the weekend.

SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

Satellite images indicate that Ana is starting to show signs of
transforming into a tropical storm, with a more compact structure
and tighter convective bands near the center.
In addition,
aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the maximum wind band is
becoming sharper and migrating inward. The storm still has
less-intense convection than most tropical cyclones, however, and is
still co-located with an upper-level low; consequently Ana remains
best classified as subtropical for now. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 40 kt based on the SFMR and flight-level
data.

Ana has been meandering for the past several hours under a blocking
ridge along the U.S. east coast, although recently the storm has
drifted eastward toward a convective burst. This ridge will
slowly move eastward over the next couple of days, which
should steer the storm generally slowly northwestward. Model
guidance is in good agreement in bringing Ana to the coast of the
Carolinas in about two days. After that, a strong trough should
cause Ana to move more quickly to the north and east late Sunday
and into early next week. No significant changes were required to
the previous forecast track, which remains close to the model
consensus. Extratropical transition is anticipated in about four
days - in line with the global model guidance.

Some strengthening of Ana is possible since the cyclone is embedded
within an environment of cold upper-level temperatures, leading to
more thunderstorms than one would expect over the marginally warm
waters. However, there is quite a bit of dry air around the storm,
which could help limit convection. Most of the guidance shows some
intensification during the next day or so, and the official forecast
does the same. As Ana approaches the coast, some weakening seems
probable due to the storm moving over cooler shelf waters. The
latest NHC forecast is close to the previous one, although a little
higher at 36 and 48 hr to reflect the latest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 31.5N 77.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 31.8N 77.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 32.1N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 32.6N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 33.2N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 35.1N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 39.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 44.5N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Quoting 52. Torito:



Yeah, right at the end. looks like more of a mess than anything to me though.


I've seen a lot of mess over the last decade or so

this looks much better than some




Quoting 55. Torito:



In the last few frames the structure and appearance looks a bit more like a tropical system instead of subtropical.. however.. There really isn't much convection to go off of on the entire north west side of the system. I don't expect much change from the previous advisory, to be honest.




yes its becoming more tropical
give it some time that convection is now starting to wrap around to the N it just need time to do so

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012015
1100 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 77.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River
South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Surf City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South of South Santee River
* North of Surf City to Cape Lookout North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case also within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ana.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 77.3 West. The storm has
been meandering during the past few hours, but is expected to begin
a north-northwestward motion later today. A turn toward the
northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
tomorrow.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h), with higher
gusts. Although Ana is expected to make the transition to a
tropical storm later today, only small changes in strength are
expected while the storm approaches the coastine over the next
couple of days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the
center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Reconnaissance Unit Aircraft was 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area, and possible within the watch areas, by Saturday evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters.
The water could reach 1 to 2 ft above ground at times of high tide
in coastal areas from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina southward
through South Carolina. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.

RAINFALL: Ana is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to
4 inches, with isolated amounts of 6 inches, over eastern portions
of North Carolina and South Carolina through the weekend.

SURF: Swells generated by Ana are affecting portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast. These swells will likely cause life-
threatening surf and rip currents. Please see statements issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Quoting 63. wunderkidcayman:


I've seen a lot of mess over the last decade or so

this looks much better than some






yes its becoming more tropical
give it some time that convection is now starting to wrap around to the N it just need time to do so



There's a lurking issue, however.. That dry air is starting to work its way into the core of Ana.
Quoting 54. MaineGuy:

On another note, the Australian prime minister's chief business advisor thinks global warming is a hoax.

Link


Wait 'til he hears about economics!
from NHC themselves

"Satellite images indicate that Ana is starting to show signs of
transforming into a tropical storm
, with a more compact structure
and tighter convective bands near the center. In addition,
aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the maximum wind band is
becoming sharper and migrating inward."
Quoting 22. ricderr:

Mr. Paris, come around for another pass.

Mr. Tuvok, fire phasers at the core.


i think you are not watching the real tar trek.....as it would be....mr checkov...come around for another pass...and mr sulu....fire phasers at the core....LOL


Mr Sulu was the helmsman. Mr Chekov was the preferred weapons operator.

Quoting 54. MaineGuy:

On another note, the Australian prime minister's chief business advisor thinks global warming is a hoax.

Link
You mean to tell us that an old, uber-conservative, pro-pollution, anti-regulation, Laissez-faire-loving guy with a long history of both spouting anti-scientific nonsense and silencing the opposition has come out to blather on yet again about how climate chnage is all made up?

Shocking. Imagine my surprise!
Congrats Ana..........We have been debating whether you would go with a tropical dress for 72 hours now................
Quoting 22. ricderr:

Mr. Paris, come around for another pass.

Mr. Tuvok, fire phasers at the core.


i think you are not watching the real tar trek.....as it would be....mr checkov...come around for another pass...and mr sulu....fire phasers at the core....LOL




Tell me more about Tar Trek.
Quoting 46. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Crapvection: morning/early afternoon convection that scours out moisture/reduces instability, lowering the risk for more significant severe weather later in the day.


In the Mid Atlantic this is also the remains of the previous night's midwest MCC that comes over the mountains as mid and high clouds or sometimes as decaying showers and reduces morning heating and convective chances for later in the day here. But one of these saved our bacon June 13, 2013 when I thought DC metro would get one of its worst severe outbreaks of record and instead a decaying line of thunderstorms came through mid morning. We still juiced up and got some thunderstorms and a few tornadoes in the afternoon but the potential for an awful outbreak was not realized.
Main Viewer, standard orbit.



Quoting 22. ricderr:

Mr. Paris, come around for another pass.

Mr. Tuvok, fire phasers at the core.


i think you are not watching the real tar trek.....as it would be....mr checkov...come around for another pass...and mr sulu....fire phasers at the core....LOL


You have something against Voyager? :)
"Thank You people of the SE coast and a special shout out to the Gulf Stream for the warm reception; I am going to head out now and may go back to a subtropical dress tomorrow, Love Ana"


90 predictions for this hurricane season. There is still time to join!!
Quoting 71. TimTheWxMan:





Tell me more about Tar Trek.


There was that famous scene in Fantasia during Igor Stravinsky's Rite of Spring...

Anyway, pertaining to the current discussion in the blog, I am of the opinion that the "dry air" will win out over the "wrapping convection" for Ana. Nevertheless, I am impressed at what she's been able to accomplish. A nice little surprise.
Quoting 54. MaineGuy:

On another note, the Australian prime minister's chief business advisor thinks global warming is a hoax.

Link


Having Ana form in May is already being blamed with AGW.....
Quoting 80. yoboi:



Having Ana form in May is already being blamed with AGW.....


What source claims this?
Quoting 80. yoboi:



Having Ana form in May is already being blamed with AGW.....

Link to a reliable source that says that?
Quoting 75. weathermanwannabe:

"Thank You people of the SE coast and a special shout out to the Gulf Stream for the warm reception; I am going to head out now and may go back to a subtropical dress tomorrow, Love Ana"


Off-topic, anybody else getting kidnapped to the bottom of the blog to watch Coors Ads?
So..is it "Ann nah" or "Ahh Nah"

Nice day here in Wilmington. Partly sunny, got sunburned during my morning surf.
Quoting 24. HurricaneAndre:


I see purple in the Caribbean.
There are many purple in the Caribbean, especially tourists on cruise ships!... ;)
Quoting 84. Brock31:

So..is it "Ann nah" or "Ahh Nah"

Nice day here in Wilmington. Partly sunny, got sunburned during my morning surf.

Ahh Nah
Quoting 84. Brock31:

So..is it "Ann nah" or "Ahh Nah"

Nice day here in Wilmington. Partly sunny, got sunburned during my morning surf.


Model trend and official guidance has been shifting N. Looking more and more like it will come ashore on the upper SC coast. Y'all will likely see some weather this weekend. Down here in Chucktown, I'm expecting things to be breezy, but nice if the current Nward trend holds out.
Quoting 82. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Link to a reliable source that says that?



Link
She's still sitting on the Eastern side of the GS per last recon fix. When she moves directly over the GS, we could see a little intensification and possible development of a true CDO. As noted by all, once she moves in to the cooler shelf waters, that and the dry air should put a kibosh on any intensification after that.

Quoting 67. wunderkidcayman:

from NHC themselves

"Satellite images indicate that Ana is starting to show signs of
transforming into a tropical storm
, with a more compact structure
and tighter convective bands near the center. In addition,
aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the maximum wind band is
becoming sharper and migrating inward
."
drawing a breath
Quoting 88. yoboi:




Link

That link says nothing about Subtropical Storm Ana being proof of AGW.

And on a broader scale, that link says clearly states that it is premature to conclude that AGW has had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane activity.
Quoting 81. LongIslandBeaches:



What source claims this?
figmentofourimagination group
Seems she has cut off the dry air feed from the S, but still a large chunk to the N and E she will have to work out. The sooner she starts drifting NW towards the center of the GS, the better her chances. On a side note, any idea why they would have gone out of rapid scan?

Quoting 89. StormJunkie:

She's still sitting on the Eastern side of the GS per last recon fix. When she moves directly over the GS, we could see a little intensification and possible development of a true CDO. As noted by all, once she moves in to the cooler shelf waters, that and the dry air should put a kibosh on any intensification after that.




Ye it's currently over 23-24C water based on the contour chart. There's some 25-26C water to the west of it. It could go fully tropical if it manages to shift over to it.

Quoting 87. StormJunkie:



Model trend and official guidance has been shifting N. Looking more and more like it will come ashore on the upper SC coast. Y'all will likely see some weather this weekend. Down here in Chucktown, I'm expecting things to be breezy, but nice if the current Nward trend holds out.


I figure we'll get a little action around here.

I'm still trying to nail down the pronunciation.
Well I suppose the arrival of Ana should stir up the comment rate over the weekend.
Interesting to observe from over on our Conservative side of the Atlantic.
Quoting 87. StormJunkie:



Model trend and official guidance has been shifting N. Looking more and more like it will come ashore on the upper SC coast. Y'all will likely see some weather this weekend. Down here in Chucktown, I'm expecting things to be breezy, but nice if the current Nward trend holds out.


Could use some rain here in Central MD but I doubt TC enhanced rains will get this far north and west.



Quoting 98. PlazaRed:

Well I suppose the arrival of Ana should stir up the comment rate over the weekend.
Interesting to observe from over on our Conservative side of the Atlantic.


Only mildly...It's N of 30.5N which is never a positive sign for the comment rate index. ;-)
Quoting 83. redwagon:



Off-topic, anybody else getting kidnapped to the bottom of the blog to watch Coors Ads?

I got tired of the ads so I paid the $ 10.00 membership two weeks ago..................Smooth sailing and no Coors Ad............Good Investment.
Sub-tropical systems aren't counted towards ACE for the year right?
Ana looks to be getting better with each frame, regardless of the dry air... she looks pretty well tropical now. And she's building some convection to block that dry air from getting to her COC. Nice structure as well.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a respectable (for this time of year) strengthening trend, maybe topping out as a high-end TS.
Quoting 102. Envoirment:

Sub-tropical systems aren't counted towards ACE for the year right?

They are, although I think it's a relatively recent addition. A snippet from the 2014 Annual Atlantic tropical cyclone summary, "The NOAA Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which is a measure of the strength and duration of (sub)tropical storms and hurricanes..."
107. MahFL
Quoting 103. LostTomorrows:

Ana looks to be getting better with each frame, regardless of the dry air... she looks pretty well tropical now. And she's building some convection to block that dry air from getting to her COC. Nice structure as well.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a respectable (for this time of year) strengthening trend, maybe topping out as a high-end TS.


You mean this naked swirl ?

Quoting 103. LostTomorrows:

Ana looks to be getting better with each frame, regardless of the dry air... she looks pretty well tropical now. And she's building some convection to block that dry air from getting to her COC. Nice structure as well.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a respectable (for this time of year) strengthening trend, maybe topping out as a high-end TS.


Center is currently void of any real convection. She needs to get through this last bit of dry air on her N and E side. If she can creep towards the warmer GS and hold that position through the night...She might be able to take advantage of it. Right now she is struggling though.



Quoting 97. Brock31:



I figure we'll get a little action around here.

I'm still trying to nail down the pronunciation.

I agree w/ Andre...'ahh nuh'. If it was Anna,, then I'd think it was 'ann nuh'.

Waaaay back in high school Spanish we were all given Spanish names, and that's what we responded to for years in Spanish class. Mine happened to be 'Ana' (pronounced 'ahh nuh'). Some students would only use the Spanish names regardless of where we were, so it became a second name, of sorts. Many years after graduation, I walked into a high school reunion, and for the first time in years, heard people yelling 'Ana!' Thanks for the flashback :)
FYI in case anyone's interested:

It looks like the International Space Station will pass fairly close to overhead of Ana in a little less than 2 hours. (I'm estimating here.)

You can view live video streams from the ISS at either of the following sites. The views are usually different, because they use separate cameras.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/iss-hdev-payload

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-iss-stream

At either site, the live video will be at the top of the page. If you scroll down you'll see a section labelled "Where is the International Space Station?" It takes a little time to load (between 10 and 30 seconds, usually) but it's worth it, because it shows you the current and next orbital path of the ISS. Some of the camera shots are breathtaking.

Just passing that along.
Jed and TA13,
Watch for outflow boundaries as foci for kabooms. One that draps itself across N TX will move N during the day.

@38 Torito,
;)
Those little popups are supercells and theres' a tornado watch now.

Later, onions. I got stuff to do before it starts raining again.

Oh, here's a neat pic of Canadian River at Purcell at just the point where moderate flood level begins. NWS forecast was right on. This river has a sandy bank and is usually a couple meandering paths through sand bars - rose from 5-6 ft level to 13 ft last eve. A little while after the gauge hit 13 ft taken on the fly...


Almost all of OK under flood watch.
'Bye now.
Quoting 108. StormJunkie:



Center is currently void of any real convection. She needs to get through this last bit of dry air on her N and E side. If she can creep towards the warmer GS and hold that position through the night...She might be able to take advantage of it. Right now she is struggling though.


Oh yes I know she still has a way to go, but she is still looking better and better. Her centre's still void of convection but she's building some small rain bands to the west when there was absolutely no moisture there at all earlier. Needless to say I believe she is still trending upwards, and if convection continues attempting to build to the west then it's only a matter of time before a CDO forms. She still has her best shot ahead of her when she inevitably drifts west into the warmest waters.

At lest she's looking to make it interesting, especially with environmental signs pointing towards a not-so-interesting hurricane season.
Quoting 110. EJOnPineIsland:

FYI in case anyone's interested:

It looks like the International Space Station will pass fairly close to overhead of Ana in a little less than 2 hours. (I'm estimating here.)

You can view live video streams from the ISS at either of the following sites. The views are usually different, because they use separate cameras.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/iss-hdev-payload

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-iss-stream

At either site, the live video will be at the top of the page. If you scroll down you'll see a section labelled "Where is the International Space Station?" It takes a little time to load (between 10 and 30 seconds, usually) but it's worth it, because it shows you the current and next orbital path of the ISS. Some of the camera shots are breathtaking.

Just passing that along.



FWIW, local mets have referred to the storm as ahh nuh
@ 54. MaineGuy


Maurice Newman Is A Hoax, Sources Confirm



Tony Abbott’s chief business advisor Maurice Newman is an elaborate prank, it has been revealed.

The hoax has been revealed as the brainchild of a United Nations receptionist who was bored one afternoon and trying to get a laugh out of his colleagues.

“It was just a bit of a light-hearted joke. I didn’t actually expect anyone to take it seriously,” the receptionist Matthew Watters said. “But then all of a sudden the Australian Prime Minister’s gone and employed this guy as his business advisor, and it just kind of snowballed from there”.

Watters said he never intended the character to rise to prominence or cause any harm. “I just wanted to get a cheap laugh at the office, maybe ruffle a few feathers. I certainly never expected this make-believe character to have an influence over an entire nation’s policy direction”.

He said Newman may be difficult to stop now that he has taken on a life of his own. “The problem is that so many people take him seriously; they think he’s real. I just want to make this really clear: there’s no link between Maurice Newman and reality, it’s just a guy in the UN pulling the strings”.

He said he now regrets creating the character. “I should’ve listened to Richard in accounts after he created Clive Palmer. It can quickly get out of hand”.

Source
Quoting 113. tampabaymatt:



FWIW, local mets have referred to the storm as ahh nuh
From the official NHC source:



So: AH-nah
Quoting 71. TimTheWxMan:





Tell me more about Tar Trek.


He meant star trek.
Quoting 46. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Crapvection: morning/early afternoon convection that scours out moisture/reduces instability, lowering the risk for more significant severe weather later in the day.


Thanks.
Poll time!!!

What will we see at the Day 2 outlook at 1730Z?

A)Enhanced
B)Moderate
C)HIGH

I vote C.

Meanwhile, on the Radar...
Quoting 117. DCSwithunderscores:

*WORDS AND OPINIONS*


The only thing worse than posting that entire drivel is quoting it in a response.
Quoting 123. LongIslandBeaches:



The only thing worse than posting that entire drivel is quoting it in a response.


ugh! It's as long as a centipede.
Watch status message on Watch #142: THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
Quoting 114. Xandra:

@ 54. MaineGuy


Maurice Newman Is A Hoax, Sources Confirm



Tony Abbott%u2019s chief business advisor Maurice Newman is an elaborate prank, it has been revealed.

The hoax has been revealed as the brainchild of a United Nations receptionist who was bored one afternoon and trying to get a laugh out of his colleagues.

%u201CIt was just a bit of a light-hearted joke. I didn%u2019t actually expect anyone to take it seriously,%u201D the receptionist Matthew Watters said. %u201CBut then all of a sudden the Australian Prime Minister%u2019s gone and employed this guy as his business advisor, and it just kind of snowballed from there%u201D.

Watters said he never intended the character to rise to prominence or cause any harm. %u201CI just wanted to get a cheap laugh at the office, maybe ruffle a few feathers. I certainly never expected this make-believe character to have an influence over an entire nation%u2019s policy direction%u201D.

He said Newman may be difficult to stop now that he has taken on a life of his own. %u201CThe problem is that so many people take him seriously; they think he%u2019s real. I just want to make this really clear: there%u2019s no link between Maurice Newman and reality, it%u2019s just a guy in the UN pulling the strings%u201D.

He said he now regrets creating the character. %u201CI should%u2019ve listened to Richard in accounts after he created Clive Palmer. It can quickly get out of hand%u201D.

Source


I think that the article that you posted is a prank and that Maurice Newman is real.
As bf mentioned below, some of the rivers in the TX/OK/KS/NE corridor of recent heavy rains have really risen:



This is for the Little Blue River, in northeast Kansas (just upstream of where the Little Blue empties into the Big Blue):

Quoting 123. LongIslandBeaches:



The only thing worse than posting that entire drivel is quoting it in a response.


Reading the entire article might have been worse still, but I didn't go that far.
Quoting 107. MahFL:



You mean this naked swirl ?


Oh my God what a monster storm. The party is on early this season.
Quoting 123. LongIslandBeaches:



The only thing worse than posting that entire drivel is quoting it in a response.
+ 10....Would not be a bad addition to the rules of the road. Not to quote comments like that one being addressed.
SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK UPDATE: No HIGH RISK was issued. See for yourself.
Quoting 131. DCSwithunderscores:



Reading the entire article might have been worse still, but I didn't go that far.

So you missed the part (final paragraph) where it's all a 30+ year conspiracy driven by 'politicians, environmentalists, and the world government advocates'? That's where it lost all credibility to me. Science I'll read...massive conspiracy theories...not so much.
Quoting 133. hydrus:

+ 10....Would not be a bad addition to the rules of the road. Not to quote comments like that one being addressed.
With what Scripps, NCEP and now Dr. William Gray are saying about climate change and the Arctic Ice, it starting to make me wonder what is really going on. WE should have an answer in the next 15 or so years. Climate change has nothing to do with Ana as some on hear were suggesting.
Doesn't look like very many people in Myrtle Beach are heeding the warning to stay out of the water.
redwagon download ADblock.
Quoting 116. Neapolitan:

From the official NHC source:



So: AH-nah


That would come in handy for me if we make it to J. Wouldn't spell it right either.
Quoting 133. hydrus:

10....Would not be a bad addition to the rules of the road. Not to quote comments like that one being addressed.


They could easily have a built-in snipping of quoted comments in replies, for quoted comments that are too long. Otherwise, "articles like that one" might be too subjective. They probably wouldn't quote that comment in the rules, stating "don't quote comments like this one".
Quoting 46. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Crapvection: morning/early afternoon convection that scours out moisture/reduces instability, lowering the risk for more significant severe weather later in the day.


Nice one! Still can't stop laughing. Sounds like the storms near me lately. Crapvection!
Is it just me or does it appear the LLC is rotating around the MLC? If it isn't vertically stacked, it won't be doing much anytime soon.

From NASA Earth Observatory, the Image of the Day for May 8, 2015:

Cloudy Earth


acquired July 2002 - April 2015

Decades of satellite observations and astronaut photographs show that clouds dominate space-based views of Earth. One study based on nearly a decade of satellite data estimated that about 67 percent of Earth’s surface is typically covered by clouds. This is especially the case over the oceans, where other research shows less than 10 percent of the sky is completely clear of clouds at any one time. Over land, 30 percent of skies are completely cloud free.

Earth’s cloudy nature is unmistakable in this global cloud fraction map, based on data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite. While MODIS collects enough data to make a new global map of cloudiness every day, this version of the map shows an average of all of the satellite’s cloud observations between July 2002 and April 2015. Colors range from dark blue (no clouds) to light blue (some clouds) to white (frequent clouds).


Read more
2.5 inch hail in Texas!!

1722 250 5 E CHILDRESS CHILDRESS TX 3442 10016
Quoting 87. StormJunkie:



Model trend and official guidance has been shifting N. Looking more and more like it will come ashore on the upper SC coast. Y'all will likely see some weather this weekend. Down here in Chucktown, I'm expecting things to be breezy, but nice if the current Nward trend holds out.


It has, looking like a landfall somewhere between Murells Inlet/Mouth of the Pee Dee and the Calabash river at the moment. Warning areas are from Georgetown County across the state line and ending in Pender County.
Quoting 108. StormJunkie:



Center is currently void of any real convection. She needs to get through this last bit of dry air on her N and E side. If she can creep towards the warmer GS and hold that position through the night...She might be able to take advantage of it. Right now she is struggling though.




done for may be best outlook
Quoting 135. LAbonbon:


So you missed the part (final paragraph) where it's all a 30+ year conspiracy driven by 'politicians, environmentalists, and the world government advocates'? That's where it lost all credibility to me. Science I'll read...massive conspiracy theories...not so much.


I skipped straight to the final paragraph to get the summary/conclusion and saw the conspiracy theory, which pretty much ruins the credibility in my eyes. If politicians were driving the AGW "hoax", how come we have a bunch of deniers running Congress? It's just a bunch of grad students and scientists leading the conspiracy and the politicians are the noble fighters trying to protect us from this conspiracy? Ok...
Man, this is disappointing. I was hoping for at least a healthy tropical storm. I think duck fart may be too generous. This is more like gnat wind.

She's just not going to be able to conquer the dry air. Good fight, but she is succumbing.
New Tornado Watch.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NOW IN NORTHWEST TX EXPECTED
TO MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW
TORNADOES.


THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 142...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.


...CORFIDI
New NHC Intermediate advisory: Holding strength at 45mph, still stationary. No appreciable changes.
Quoting 149. 62901IL:

New Tornado Watch.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NOW IN NORTHWEST TX EXPECTED
TO MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY EAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH AN
INCREASING RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW
TORNADOES.


THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF MINERAL WELLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 142...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.


...CORFIDI



Just makes me shudder. Those poor people in Newcastle and Moore have got to be chewing their fingernails down to the 2nd knuckle these days. How much more can they take? Hell....How much more could ANYONE take? I truly hope anything that spawns gets rain-cooled air wrapped into the inflow to disrupt tornadic formation.
It was a very surreal sight to see that wedge tornado in Denton County last night. I lived in North Dallas for 20 years, and though we had a few tornadoes over those years, to my knowledge, there was never a wedge tornado in or around the metroplex.
01L Ana


Of all the aerosols outside of sea salt Ana is ingesting Sulfate the most.

Ana's ferocious center of circulation ;-)
Quoting 74. Levi32:



You have something against Voyager? :)


I thought the shirts were too fragile in the original star trek. The 22'd century should have come up with better fabrics. The more fundamental flaw in TNG was the warp core. It was robust and sturdy on the old star trek but
very glitch prone (and glitches meant breaches and loss of the core) on TNG. Why so fragile?

No gripes against Voyager.
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Nice little storm in Sooo Cal today......about 1" Rain in my neck of the woods.......with another vort max scheduled to come through this pm.


PRELIMINARY STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
915 AM PDT FRIDAY MAY 08 2015

SNOWFALL REPORTS...

GREEN VALLEY LAKE.....6 INCHES
BIG BEAR (6800 FT)....6
BLUE JAY..............5
ARROWBEAR.............4
RUNNING SPRINGS.......4
ANGELS CAMP...........3
CRESTLINE.............3
IDYLLWILD.............1-3
BIG BEAR..............2
PINE VALLEY...........TRACE

RAWS MESONET ASOS AND ALERT 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF

_________________________915 AM FRIDAY_________________________


.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES

STATION PRECIP(IN) MILES/DIRECTION FROM

1. UPPER SILVERADO CYN 1.18 2N SANTIAGO PK
2. HENSHAW DAM 1.00 0 LAKE HENSHAW
3. WARNER SPRINGS 1.00
4. WARNER SPRINGS 0.96
5. PINE HILLS FS 0.91 3SW JULIAN
6. SAN DIEGO SEA WORLD 0.88
7. PANORAMA POINT 0.87 7WSW LAKE ARROWHEAD
8. RANCHO BERNARDO 0.87
9. BEE CANYON 0.86 4NE IRVINE


.SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEV(FT) DISTANCE(MI)
SAN MARCOS LANDFILL 0.54 766 3SW SAN MARCOS
KEARNY MESA 0.44 455 6NNW SAN DIEGO
MONTGOMERY FIELD 0.37 423 6NNW SAN DIEGO
SAN ONOFRE 0.33 162 7NNW OCEANSIDE
LINDBERGH FIELD 0.32 42 1NW SAN DIEGO
ENCINITAS 0.31 242 0 ENCINITAS
EL CAMINO DEL NORTE 0.31 50 6SSW SAN MARCOS
POINT LOMA 0.31 364 4WSW SAN DIEGO
CARLSBAD 0.24 305
CARLSBAD AIRPORT 0.23 357 3SE CARLSBAD
LAS FLORES RAWS 0.22 100 9NW OCEANSIDE
FASHION VALLEY 0.20 20 3N SAN DIEGO
SAN YSIDRO 0.20 30 4SE IMPERIAL BEACH
TIJUANA ESTUARY 0.19 20
SMUGGLERS GULCH 0.19 74
CAMP ELLIOT RAWS 0.19 539 8NNW SAN DIEGO
BROWN FIELD 0.17 524 5SE CHULA VISTA
OCEANSIDE 0.16 30 1N OCEANSIDE
GOAT CANYON 0.16 110
SOLANA BEACH 0.08 75 0 SOLOANA BEACH
Quoting 122. 62901IL:

Meanwhile, on the Radar...

Cuts it off just S of me, but that piece W of Vandalia coming thru right now. Took a peek earlier, couldn't hear any lightning, but fast moving low clouds, kicking up dust from rock parking lot / driveways. Can hear rain on bldg now, sounds like wind driven - prob 20-30 gusts. Round 1 for us, last night it all stayed W of I-55.
Quoting 156. georgevandenberghe:



I thought the shirts were too fragile in the original star trek. The 22'd century should have come up with better fabrics. The more fundamental flaw in TNG was the warp core. It was robust and sturdy on the old star trek but
very glitch prone (and glitches meant breaches and loss of the core) on TNG. Why so fragile?

No gripes against Voyager.


They ran out of dilithium crystals. The Klingons cornered the market.
I forgot to say hello to Ana!
Quoting 136. NativeSun:

With what Scripps, NCEP and now Dr. William Gray are saying about climate change and the Arctic Ice, it starting to make me wonder what is really going on. WE should have an answer in the next 15 or so years. Climate change has nothing to do with Ana as some on hear were suggesting.
Hello N.S. The science data will pin down what is happening eventually, and I mean data that cannot be twisted or denied. I want answers as much as the next person. I am tired of saying the same thing over and over here on the blog, but moving towards renewable energy and shifting away from fossil fuels is a step in the right direction. Yes, we should keep drilling for the time being, but reducing pollution, adding more renewable s, and finding alternatives other than oil will only keep us more competitive with other countries when the oils gone. Some say why should we when other countries are not.? That is one big reason why we here in the U.S. should. We already know the Earth is warming, now we nail down exactly whats going on, and do what we can as a race to better our world.
Quoting 151. nash36:



Just makes me shudder. Those poor people in Newcastle and Moore have got to be chewing their fingernails down to the 2nd knuckle these days. How much more can they take? Hell....How much more could ANYONE take? I truly hope anything that spawns gets rain-cooled air wrapped into the inflow to disrupt tornadic formation.
Praying for all of them, it's horrible. Frayed nerves and no fingernails.
Quoting 162. HurricaneHunterJoe:

I forgot to say hello to Ana!

Pleased to meet you
Hope you guess my name
But what's puzzling you
Is the nature of my game
Quoting 148. nash36:

Man, this is disappointing. I was hoping for at least a healthy tropical storm. I think duck fart may be too generous. This is more like gnat wind.

She's just not going to be able to conquer the dry air. Good fight, but she is succumbing.

I wouldn't say Ana is succumbing at all. Looks like a maintenance or even improvement in organization compared to this morning.

The ISS pass was awesome view of ANA'


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 142. pipelines:

Is it just me or does it appear the LLC is rotating around the MLC? If it isn't vertically stacked, it won't be doing much anytime soon.



doing a circle dance with itself now
deciding where when to go
Good afternoon class! A chilly day in the Soo Cal mountains and I see a little snow on the tops at about 5,000 feet elevation....Im down at 3500 feet and been all rain during the night and morning. But will take 1" of rain for sure! With that inch of rain, am a little over 50% of normal since July 1, 2014. Hope that El Nino holds off and becomes strong during the Fall-Winter.......if it ever decides to make up it's mind what it wants to do.

A chilly 47 at my location today!

Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 08 May 11:48 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 08 May 11:40 am PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
08 May 11:40 am PDT 47 38 71 WSW 8G15
Quoting 41. WxLogic:

A couple observations from my part on STS Ana...

On this first image I've attached... you'll see I've highlighted two areas of low PW (Precip. Water) surrounding Ana, with the notable one being on the SW quadrant, which you can clearly see being ingested into the storm:



In this second image, it shows you an RH cross section view of how the 13Z RAP is viewing the moisture profile for Ana. I've highlighted how the NE quadrant low PW that I showed above as is moving around the storm into the back sided of it. As you can see is quite dry from mid to upper levels above Ana, but shouldn't be too dry for too long:



In my opinion, this try air is contaminating many of the wind reading (enhancing downdrafts).



Good post.
I agree, mid level dry air entrainment enhancing sfc winds a valid observation. Much as we see in baroclinic processes with large dewpoint depression, evap cooling / parcel negative buoyancy / strongly sinking air. Lot of research been published on the dry air intrusion topic - such as this - although I'd have to dig more to find those particularly addressing influence on surface winds. While the overall impact to a tropical system's convective organization is disruptive, a broad field of respectable sfc winds result (and within banding). Certainly the case in a top-down subtropical system under a cold core mid-upper low like Ana is, trying to maintain coherent convection while ingesting abundant surrounding continental dry air. Subtropical storms make for interesting case studies.

A side note regarding the dry air impact within a well-developed tropical cyclone. From strictly observational point of view, I recall the strongest winds I observed during Katrina - on it's west side / 55 miles from eye - occurred when radar / sat imagery showed was under those dry streaks between convective bands, NOT while under the strongest tstms. I again observed the same "highest winds / dry slotting" during Hurricane Gustav here. And IMHO, I also found evidence when analyzing H Gustav the early initiation of mid-upper level dry air entrainment was rapid, occurring at Cuba landfall which neatly coincided with the momentous record 212 mph gust.