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Virgin Islands brace for Hurricane Omar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:24 PM GMT on October 15, 2008

Hurricane Omar is on the move, headed for an encounter with the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles late tonight and early Thursday morning. Omar is passing very close to Buoy 42059, which measured sustained winds of 58 mph gusting to 72, and 17 foot waves, at 8:50 am EDT. The storm continues to pound the ABC Islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao with heavy rains. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches have been observed over the past three days in these islands, and Netherlands Antilles radar shows that more rain is on the way from Omar's southern spiral band. Rain will be ending early this evening in the ABC Islands, and no significant flooding or damage is likely there.

The latest Hurricane Hunter center fix at 7:30 am EDT found that the pressure has remained nearly constant since yesterday afternoon, 984 mb. The 35-mile diameter eyewall had a gap in it on the south side, and it is apparent that Omar is still struggling with wind shear. Shear was analyzed at 20 knots this morning, which is on the high side of where hurricanes are still able to intensify. Satellite loops show that low level spiral bands and upper level outflow are not present on Omar's west side, due to strong upper level winds from the west creating wind shear on that side of the storm. Outflow and spiral banding are impressive on the other three sides of the storm. A hint of an eye is apparent on visible satellite images. The eye of Omar is now visible on long range radar out of Puerto Rico, and this will be a good way to track the storm until the next Hurricane Hunter flight arrives at 2 pm EDT this afternoon.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Omar.

The forecast for Omar
The models are tightly clustered along a path that would take Omar through the Virgin Islands late tonight. However, the east coast of Puerto Rico and the islands farther east, such as St. Martin/St. Maartin and Anguilla, are still in the cone of uncertainty, and could get a direct hit. Our main intensity models--the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS--all forecast that Omar will be a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75-85 mph as it passes through the islands. Wind shear is expected to be in the moderate to high range, 15-25 knots, over the next two days, which should allow some modest intensification. I give Omar a 30% chance of reaching Category 2 strength before landfall early Thursday morning, and a 10% chance of being a major Category 3 hurricane.

Omar's storm surge
Wind damage is likely to be the greatest threat from Omar. Storm surge is usually not a problem in the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles, since these islands are surrounded by deep water, and the surge tends to flow around the islands, rather than be forced up onto the islands. As seen in Figure 2, the maximum storm tide from a mid-strength Category 3 hurricane with 120-125 mph winds is generally in the 3-4 foot range in the Virgin Islands. St. Thomas and Anedega Islands can get a slightly higher surge of 5-6 feet, due to their convex shape facing southwest, which will tend to trap the surge from a northeastward moving hurricane. Since Omar is expected to be a weaker Category 1 or 2 hurricane, maximum storm surge heights of 1-2 feet are expected in the Virgin Islands. The down side of having deep water close to shore is that the waves will be high, and the Virgin Islands and northern Lesser Antilles Islands can expect considerable coastal erosion and damage to coastal structures due to high battering waves.


Figure 2. Expected maximum storm tide (storm surge plus a correction for the storm hitting at high tide) for a Category 3 hurricane moving northeast at 12 mph through the Virgin Islands. This is NOT the surge expected from a particular storm, but rather the maximum computed storm tide (Maximum Envelope of Waters, or MEOW) from eleven different simulated hurricanes (with tracks shown in black with arrows). The simulations were done using NOAA's SLOSH model.

Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
Eastern Caribbean buoy 42059
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather
St. Croix, Virgin Islands weather
Martinique radar

Tropical Depression 16 off the coast of Honduras
Tropical Depression 16, near the Honduras/Nicaragua border, remains a disorganized heavy rainmaker. Satellite estimates suggest TD 16 has already dumped up to six inches of rain on northern Honduras and Nicaragua, and more heavy rains are on the way for those countries, plus Belize, northern Guatemala, and southern portions of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that TD 16 is a very large but poorly organized storm, with several far-flung spiral bands that are spreading heavy thunderstorms over a wide area of the Western Caribbean and Central America. The center of circulation is broad and difficult to pin down, but appears to be over the water, within 50 miles of the coast of Honduras.

The forecast for TD 16
The system is expected to track very close to the coast of Honduras, and this proximity to land should limit intensification potential. None of the models are calling for TD 16 to become any stronger than a 40 mph tropical storm. Given the storm's current disorganization, I doubt that it will ever become a tropical storm. However, the depression is going to bring potentially dangerous amounts of rainfall capable of causing flash flooding and mudslides.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts
There continues to be an urgent need for relief supplies in the wake of Hurricane Ike. I recommend contributions to the portlight.org charity fund, formed by wunderground memebrs to serve the needs of those often bypassed by traditional relief efforts. Contributions are fully tax-deductible, and more details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr M
Thanks Doc.
Thanks doc...
Not what I was looking for.
I know anyone in the cone can get a direct hit, but who do you think it most at risk with what YOU see on satellite images?
On behalf of everyone else, Thank you.
( now everyone can relax )
From previous, another trivia question for you... (To try and keep you at ease, of course.)

How many seasons have had *both* a pre-season and a post-season storm?
Thanks.........
Hello, Orca. This Omar has been a great storm to track and watch.
How you feeling today ?
Quoting pottery:
Hello, Orca. This Omar has been a great storm to track and watch.
How you feeling today ?


Almost starting to think I might survive this :)
Benirica, I would think the speed that the system moves toward the islands would play a big part in its landfall position.
LOL Orca. I went through a similar thing recently. At one point i thought " well why dont they just bury me now, and done "
Stay up.
Also, said earlier that the current average for storms in this current AMO phase is 14.5 storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 majors. This season, on average, lasts from the middle of June to the middle of November, with outliers spanning from April to January.

What about the last previous AMO period, which was destructive in its own right?

This was before the era of satellite, so an additional 2 storms could be theoretically missed.

Going with just the 1950s...

11 storms - 7 hurricanes - 4 majors. With satellite deficiencies at the time, this could even be higher. But what's interesting, is that the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes match up near enough already.
Orcasystems
I'll send you something good ..maybe cheer you up!
Thanks Dr. Masters for the update. Everyone in Omar's cone prepair and stay safe.
Looks like this may not go beyond a Cat 1, if the wind shear remains strong.

Potentially good news for BVI / USVI..
Quoting MissNadia:
Orcasystems
I'll send you something good ..maybe cheer you up!


Last one you sent almost killed me, and the laptop. I almost chocked and the laptop almost drown.
Trinidad weather now--
Cloudy
29 F temp
79% humid
wind SSW 6mph
Press 1012 steady.

An area of heavy weather just to the SouthEast producing dark sky, and rain is expected in a while....
advisory is up and here it is
000
WTNT35 KNHC 151449
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2008

...OMAR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO LASH ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...SOUTHWEST
OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND OMAR SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...
ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
64 MPH...104 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.2 N...67.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



is it my eyes? the centre of omar seems to be going due east. could someone tell me if iam correct or not?
Looking at the Visible Loop of TD16 , it appears a new center might be trying to form/relocate further south and east, anyone else notice this?
omar up 85 mph from 80 mph this am
Just cloudy here atm but looks like that'll change soon - some nice thunderstorms last night...
NOW THAT A DISTINCT EYE AND EYEWALL HAVE DEVELOPED...A GOOD CHIMNEY
EFFECT CAN BE ESTABLISHED AND OMAR COULD GO THROUGH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AGAIN. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL IS CALLING FOR
OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST 90 KT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS OMAR BELOW 80 KT.

Let's hope the GFDL is wrong. Unfortunately, the GFDL is also usually the best model.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Almost starting to think I might survive this :)
Nothing a run to the sun and a bottle o' rum won't cure ;>)
Is there a RECON to Omar today ?
Track shifted closer to Puerto Rico...
And they think it had a chance at rapid intensification once the eye is completely formed.
Thanks for the update Doc.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 151451
TCDAT5
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

ON ITS FINAL LEG AROUND 11Z...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTED A PEAK SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 70 KT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF OMAR'S EYEWALL. THIS WAS COINCIDENT WITH A NEARBY
DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND VALUE OF 68 KT...SO THE INTENSITY AT THE 12Z
SYNOPTIC TIME WAS INCREASED TO 70 KT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE LAST
RECON FLIGHT...THE EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND ALSO IN THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA AT A
RANGE OF MORE THAN 200 NMI. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A
CONSENSUS T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE AND
RADAR SIGNATURES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY. OMAR IS
BASICALLY ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT
GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF
A LARGE DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A PIECE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND LIFTS OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST IN 72-96 HOURS...WHICH BRIEFLY WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW.
AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE OMAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35-40 KT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.

NOW THAT A DISTINCT EYE AND EYEWALL HAVE DEVELOPED...A GOOD CHIMNEY
EFFECT CAN BE ESTABLISHED AND OMAR COULD GO THROUGH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AGAIN. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL IS CALLING FOR
OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST 90 KT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS OMAR BELOW 80 KT. BASED ON THE BETTER
DEFINED EYE FEATURE...AND THE FACT THAT OMAR IS A RELATIVELY LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29C AND WARMER SSTS...ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.
IT ALSO ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OMAR COULD ACHIEVE MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE RAPID ENCROACHMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
PRECLUDES EXPLICITLY FORECASTING THAT INTENSITY AT THIS TIME SINCE
THAT DRY AIR COULD MAKE IT INTO THE INNER CORE REGION IN 12-18
HOURS AND WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF PUERTO
RICO...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT MOTION
COULD REQUIRE CHANGING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THAT ISLAND. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY
HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500
FT ELEVATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.2N 67.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.6N 65.9W 80 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.9W 90 KT...NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS
36HR VT 17/0000Z 22.0N 61.8W 90 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 24.7N 60.2W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 30.0N 56.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 37.0N 48.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 45.0N 32.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
Quoting pottery:
Is there a RECON to Omar today ?


It already went.

By the way. Here you can see how the track has been more northerly...

Quoting theshepherd:
Nothing a run to the sun and a bottle o' rum won't cure ;>)


How about crawl slowly to the sun... and IV the rum :)
Petrol, yeah, I am seeing that. May need to observe for a few more hours to see what happens there.
...IV the rum ? Why did I not ever think of that ??
hehehehe
Hurricane warning sounds feasible for eastern Puerto Rico... it is technically forecast to pass now as close to east Puerto Rico as it was to Vieques when the warning went up for them.
Quoting pottery:
Is there a RECON to Omar today ?
Believe Dr. M says recon goes back in at 2 pm today.
The Government of PR will close at 12PM today in the entire Island. So i think this is going to get worst here.
Hurricane lillies are just about to bloom in the back yard....that ain't good :>(
Quoting pottery:
Is there a RECON to Omar today ?


Thx... Doc.
Thanks. I read the blog twice, and missed that "recon at 2 pm " thing. Just goes to show something or other...
REcon was conceled
OK Orca, skip the rum IV, it's time to go straight to Tequila and a young sea nymph for you ol' man.
35. rhomanov 11:01 AM AST
The Government of PR will close at 12PM today in the entire Island. So i think this is going to get worst here.


Where did you hear this????
Quoting Nashda:
35. rhomanov 11:01 AM AST
The Government of PR will close at 12PM today in the entire Island. So i think this is going to get worst here.


Where did you hear this????


WIPR Channel 6. Press Conference from La Fortaleza. The Governor himself have just said this.
Quoting theshepherd:
Hurricane lillies are just about to bloom in the back yard....that ain't good :>(

What are "hurricane lillies"?
Quoting Cotillion:
Also, said earlier that the current average for storms in this current AMO phase is 14.5 storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 majors. This season, on average, lasts from the middle of June to the middle of November, with outliers spanning from April to January.

What about the last previous AMO period, which was destructive in its own right?

This was before the era of satellite, so an additional 2 storms could be theoretically missed.

Going with just the 1950s...

11 storms - 7 hurricanes - 4 majors. With satellite deficiencies at the time, this could even be higher. But what's interesting, is that the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes match up near enough already.


It should be noted however that the more recent period has had an abnormally large number of intense storms:

Most intense Atlantic hurricanes
Intensity is measured solely by central pressure
Rank Hurricane Season Min. pressure
mbar (hPa)
1 Wilma 2005 882
2 Gilbert 1988 888
3 "Labor Day" 1935 892
4 Rita 2005 895
5 Allen 1980 899
6 Katrina 2005 902
7 Camille 1969 905
Mitch 1998 905
Dean 2007 905
10 Ivan 2004 910

As for why that is, the ocean is warmer this time around (the AMO currently explains only half of the warming, so even if/when it goes back into the negative phase Atlantic SSTs will still be near average, warmer water has a big effect on MPI, although the AMO also involves changes in shear, dust moisture and other factors that are important in how many storms form, though even then you can get strong storms, just not as many; Gilbert was in the negative AMO phase).
rhomanov 11:12 AM AST on October 15, 2008
Quoting Nashda:
35. rhomanov 11:01 AM AST
The Government of PR will close at 12PM today in the entire Island. So i think this is going to get worst here.

Where did you hear this????

WIPR Channel 6. Press Conference from La Fortaleza. The Governor himself have just said this.

Gracias!!
47. JLPR
Im back =D

I see a change of tone from with the Governor conference they now look more worried =S
Also the track shifted a little bit to the left
Quoting MichaelSTL:


It should be noted however that the more recent period has had an abnormally large number of intense storms:

Most intense Atlantic hurricanes
Intensity is measured solely by central pressure
Rank Hurricane Season Min. pressure
mbar (hPa)
1 Wilma 2005 882
2 Gilbert 1988 888
3 "Labor Day" 1935 892
4 Rita 2005 895
5 Allen 1980 899
6 Katrina 2005 902
7 Camille 1969 905
Mitch 1998 905
Dean 2007 905
10 Ivan 2004 910

As for why that is, the ocean is warmer this time around (the AMO currently explains only half of the warming, so even if/when it goes back into the negative phase Atlantic SSTs will still be near average, warmer water has a big effect on MPI, although the AMO also involves changes in shear, dust moisture and other factors that are important in how many storms form, though even then you can get strong storms, just not as many; Gilbert was in the negative AMO phase).


Yes, I agree. Though also, storms back then were suspect in terms of pressure readings (Ethel, a Cat 5, with a pressure reading of like 980mb? The high pressure would have to have been sensationally high...)- they could've been much lower and intense, possibly even matching the intensity that we now have today. (Especially a lot of those intense ones - particularly in 1950 - stayed out at sea.)
3. REMARKS: FLIGHT TWO FROM TCPOD 08-136 WAS CHANGED
TO TAKE OFF 3 HOURS EARLIER (16/0100Z) AND GET FIXES
AT 16/0300,0600,0900 AND 1200Z. ALL TASKING ON TD 16
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1005Z.
Hurricane lillies are flowers that open and spawn little vortices. The little vortices become major storms. I think......

Maybe we should dig them all up.....
Yes I can also see that,if you look at the latest run of the CMC,it shows that TD16 will move parallel to the Yucatan and intensify as it gets to the Yucatan channel,we will have to see if any other models pick-up this new movement or any hints of this new northely track for TD16.
This flight has not been cancelled.
Departure is 12 noon eastern:


3. TROPICAL STORM OMAR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 15/1800Z,16/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0315A OMAR
C. 15/1600Z
D. 16.2N 66.5W
E. 15/1700Z TO 16/0000Z
F. SCF TO 10,000 FT



3. REMARKS: FLIGHT TWO FROM TCPOD 08-136 WAS CHANGED
TO TAKE OFF 3 HOURS EARLIER (16/0100Z) AND GET FIXES
AT 16/0300,0600,0900 AND 1200Z. ALL TASKING ON TD 16
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1005Z.
Quoting HobeSoundShudders:
3. REMARKS: FLIGHT TWO FROM TCPOD 08-136 WAS CHANGED
TO TAKE OFF 3 HOURS EARLIER (16/0100Z) AND GET FIXES
AT 16/0300,0600,0900 AND 1200Z. ALL TASKING ON TD 16
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1005Z.


Hmm, interesting. Maybe they expect TD16 to not be Paloma and just go inland as a TD...
ooops
Flight two into TD16 was cancelled, probably due to the proximity to land
owell i guess ya cant get everything right
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Yes I can also see that,if you look at the latest run of the CMC,it shows that TD16 will move parallel to the Yucatan and intensify as it gets to the Yucatan channel,we will have to see if any other models pick-up this new movement or any hints of this new northely track for TD16.


No, its moving inland.
never said the gov was smart
Geez.. The CMC actually has TD16 taking aim at west florida.. I highly doubt that
Well atleast PR will not feel the full brunt of the storm. I have many friends from there and they are happy to hear that. I feel bad for the USVI and all the surrounding islands though.
Quoting Clickerous:
Geez.. The CMC actually has TD16 taking aim at west florida.. I highly doubt that


LOL...Yeah I think that one is just a little off.
Quoting Cotillion:


Yes, I agree. Though also, storms back then were suspect in terms of pressure readings (Ethel, a Cat 5, with a pressure reading of like 980mb? The high pressure would have to have been sensationally high...)- they could've been much lower and intense, possibly even matching the intensity that we now have today. (Especially a lot of those intense ones - particularly in 1950 - stayed out at sea.)


Ethel however was almost certainly not a Cat 5; otherwise, it would hold the all-time intensification record, even faster than Wilma or Felix (former wind speed increase, latter fastest time to Cat 5 from a low, Ethel supposedly did this in less than a day). Ethel also supposedly dissipated just as quickly, causing very little damage at landfall as barely a hurricane, if that (they did have recon back then, but many storms were overestimated in terms of winds at the time).
Puerto Rico News:

Government Closing
National Guard Activated
Governor and Agencies worried: There has been a tendency more to the West than East than expected and the track was shifted west with the possibility of shifting even more by 5. Hurricane Watches may be issued by Puerto Rico. It was said the through was causing this and also the system is strenghtening some more, causing an "obvious" west movement or whatever they spelled it.

I am now getting for sure Tropical Storm winds, at least. =P
Actually.. the GFDL and the HWRF have it hugging the coast and making a slight turn north, so it might not be too far off
Quoting lhwhelk:

What are "hurricane lillies"?
They are a magnificant pink multi-bloom at the top. Shoot up a spike 12-16" overnight and light up the yard in a couple days. Bloom late in the growing season. Identified with mid hurricane season around here. Google Homes and Gardens web photos. Don't know how to paste pics on here, or would show it to you.
Quoting bwt1982:


LOL...Yeah I think that one is just a little off.


For what it's worth, it looks like the other models are trending back to the north with 16, inland however. CMC is not as bad this year as in years past.


Latest models for OMAR are trending west, closer to PR. Vigilance should be maintained for residents of PR, especially if OMAR decides to follow the GFDL.
Quoting pottery:
Hurricane lillies are flowers that open and spawn little vortices. The little vortices become major storms. I think......

Maybe we should dig them all up.....
Excellant thought, but lillies are like woodpeckers and spiders...kill one and three take their place... Live and let live ;>)
The GEM GLB 00Z ,shows TD16 hitting the west coast of Florida next week as a Hurricane,very interesting,and also the GFDL & other models start hintting of a more North track for TD16.
LINK:

http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang=en&satdir=/models/gemglb_amer_00/&satname=gemglbPR00&satext =gif&num=41&speed=5&src=1&title=GEM%20GLB%2000Z%20ANIM

I mentioned this earlier before the new blog, about the Canadian model. Looking at 12Z readings, the ULL over the Mexican Plateau may have enough tug to pinwheel TD 16 northward, and the ridge over the SE right now is holding strong, and depending on the timing of it sinking south and how far east or west it shifts, it could also grab what might then be Paloma. Still a long ways off, several days from now. Just have to wait and see if other models suggest this over the next 24-48 hours, or maybe by then it will just be a memory of the CMC. Anyways, the high over the SE makes for beautiful weather!!
I also noticed something else about Ethel:

Reconnaissance aircraft reported a central pressure of 972 mbar and flight-level winds of 160 mph (260 km/h). Despite a central pressure typical of a Category 2 hurricane, the extreme winds justify rating Ethel a Category 5, the highest level on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.


Flight level winds of 160 mph does not equal a Cat 5 when converted to surface winds; I also wonder if that was a gust, or perhaps a downburst or mesovortex; certainly, you can get extreme winds at flight level far in excess of the surface winds; for example, a 240 mph wind gust was recorded in Isabel at flight level; hurricane hunters have even had to abort tropical storms as well due to turbulence.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


For what it's worth, it looks like the other models are trending back to the north with 16, inland however. CMC is not as bad this year as in years past.


Latest models for OMAR are trending west, closer to PR. Vigilance should be maintained for residents of PR, especially if OMAR decides to follow the GFDL.


I am not sure if we are looking at the same model map here....But it looks to me all the models but one having it go west, inland. LOL
LOL Theshepherd.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
I also noticed something else about Ethel:

Reconnaissance aircraft reported a central pressure of 972 mbar and flight-level winds of 160 mph (260 km/h). Despite a central pressure typical of a Category 2 hurricane, the extreme winds justify rating Ethel a Category 5, the highest level on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.


Flight level winds of 160 mph does not equal a Cat 5 when converted to surface winds; I also wonder if that was a gust, or perhaps a downburst or mesovortex; certainly, you can get extreme winds at flight level far in excess of the surface winds; for example, a 240 mph wind gust was recorded in Isabel at flight level; hurricane hunters have even had to abort tropical storms as well due to turbulence.


Yes, would explain - on that example - at least. Possibly a Cat 3/Cat 4 instead.

Though, there are others - such as Dog - which could have been more intense. We may never know...
I would not write off TD16 just yet, it looks like a new center might be trying to form/forming further south and east,jmo.
Let's see what GFS and GFDL show at 2pm run.
76. IKE
Quoting Hurricaneblast:
Flight two into TD16 was cancelled, probably due to the proximity to land


I can see why...mostly over land now.
Might leave the "record" at 15.
72 pottery
ditto, ol' man
Quoting bwt1982:


I am not sure if we are looking at the same model map here....But it looks to me all the models but one having it go west, inland. LOL


If you re-read my post, it does say inland however. No need to disect my posts, I know what I am talking about.
Quoting theshepherd:
Nothing a run to the sun and a bottle o' rum won't cure ;>)
my favorite quote of the week - "you spent three days lying on a beach drinking run?" Capt.Jack Sparrow "welcome to the Caribbean, love."
Orca, time to get out of dodge and get some Carib. SUN!!!


Click to enlarge
Looks like Omar finally closed off that center:

Link
yep eyewall build
82. Also looks like Omar is moving more North than East
YEs, all public agencies close in P.R. at noon. I'm a teacher and they sent me home.
RE 85

Yep, UPR Mayaguez just issued the same, maybe through Thursday...

Message:
A partir del medio día de hoy miércoles, 15 de octubre se decreta un receso académico y administrativo hasta nuevo aviso.

Translation:
As of noon of today, Wednesday 15 October, academic and administrative recess is decreed until further notice.
just got done looking at the visiable loop. might be one more round in the western carib.
It's called "dry air" Omar!
And it is right there:




Quoting Orcasystems:

Click to enlarge

Any ideas on how old the graphics are on Google Earth? Just noticing the difference between that and NOAA sat image.
80 surfmom
Yep.."Have air-card will travel"...Nobody would know he wasn't still in moose country ;>)
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


For what it's worth, it looks like the other models are trending back to the north with 16, inland however. CMC is not as bad this year as in years past.


Latest models for OMAR are trending west, closer to PR. Vigilance should be maintained for residents of PR, especially if OMAR decides to follow the GFDL.


I'm back for now... hehe.

Yeah... the models are starting to trend towards the right on TD16 since the current High is not expected to have a strong western extend as previously though... but we shall see on these upcoming 12Z packages how things play out.

Quoting PcolaDan:

Any ideas on how old the graphics are on Google Earth? Just noticing the difference between that and NOAA sat image.


I know the radar is right on when compared to Nexrad II
85. HurakanPR 12:15 PM AST
YEs, all public agencies close in P.R. at noon. I'm a teacher and they sent me home.


Lucky you I work Federal Goverment
ok, quick update as iam doing this via mobile. internet is down! I am living on st. croix and it iis pouring heavely. the system is expected to pass directly over us and things are very bad already. I will post some videos and pictures soon.
All University of Puerto Rico campus & colleges will close at 1:00PM today.
Quoting CaribbeanWave:
ok, quick update as iam doing this via mobile. internet is down! I am living on st. croix and it iis pouring heavely. the system is expected to pass directly over us and things are very bad already. I will post some videos and pictures soon.


Take care and be safe!
98. IKE
It may go south of St. Croix.

Puerto Rico should be spared. It's almost due south of San Juan now.
Quoting IKE:
Center of Omar can be seen on long-range San Juan radar.

Moving NE.

yes it has and has been there all morning long
Quoting Orcasystems:


I know the radar is right on when compared to Nexrad II


Just compared Google to radar and you're right. But cloud layer doesn't seem to be matching up. Look at TX/OK on GE vs here. Wonder if this is normal or just a delay. Haven't really noticed it before.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Click to enlarge

hey why are u showing this....and also ur showing my region as well cool
on the water vapour pic you can see how close Omar was from getting onto the high side...would have been potentially deadly for the western Caribbean again....

Here are some of the images of current conditions around my area on St. Croix







Interesting to note that 12Z GFS does have some sort of weak organized system on the GOM by Wed. next week...
105. Relix
Puerto Rico spared? Not yet. Meteorologists are very worried here and they are constantly talking about a more westerly path with the NNE movement it's been doing for a while. Here i am receiving light gusts and it's quite cloudy.
RECON is warming up:


At 16:30:30Z (first observation), the observation was 96 miles (155 km) to the ESE (121°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 16:40:00Z (last observation), the observation was 96 miles (155 km) to the ESE (121°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Quoting Orcasystems:


Click to enlarge



we just had notice of a tornado just west of spi
Quoting PcolaDan:


Just compared Google to radar and you're right. But cloud layer doesn't seem to be matching up. Look at TX/OK on GE vs here. Wonder if this is normal or just a delay. Haven't really noticed it before.


And as I'm typing this, I see that Goggle Earth has just updated while I wasn't looking! LOL
Quoting Relix:
Puerto Rico spared? Not yet. Meteorologists are very worried here and they are constantly talking about a more westerly path with the NNE movement it's been doing for a while. Here i am receiving light gusts and it's quite cloudy.


In what part of PR are you?
Quoting CaribbeanWave:

Here are some of the images of current conditions around my area on St. Croix










OMG!! you're sliding off the island!!
Airborne:


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 16:49Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 02

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
16:40:30 17.700N 64.783W 977.3 mb 265 m 1008.1 mb From 78° (ENE/E) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
16:41:00 17.700N 64.767W 942.8 mb 575 m 1007.7 mb From 112° (ESE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) - -
16:41:30 17.700N 64.733W 902.7 mb 967 m 1009.0 mb From 145° (SE) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
16:42:00 17.683N 64.717W 868.7 mb 1,295 m 1010.1 mb From 163° (SSE) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
16:42:30 17.667N 64.733W 833.0 mb 1,652 m 1010.1 mb From 168° (SSE/S) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) - -
16:43:00 17.650N 64.750W 788.9 mb 2,120 m 1009.5 mb From 185° (S) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) - -
16:43:30 17.633N 64.767W 759.9 mb 2,434 m - From 177° (S) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) - -
16:44:00 17.600N 64.767W 730.8 mb 2,763 m - From 181° (S) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
16:44:30 17.583N 64.783W 703.9 mb 3,070 m - From 185° (S) at 20 kts (23.0 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
16:45:00 17.567N 64.800W 694.6 mb 3,181 m - From 184° (S) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) - -
16:45:30 17.533N 64.817W 695.9 mb 3,171 m - From 191° (S/SSW) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) - -
16:46:00 17.517N 64.833W 695.5 mb 3,171 m - From 196° (SSW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) - -
16:46:30 17.500N 64.850W 694.9 mb 3,178 m - From 193° (SSW) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) - -
16:47:00 17.467N 64.867W 695.8 mb 3,170 m - From 184° (S) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) - -
16:47:30 17.450N 64.883W 697.3 mb 3,149 m - From 204° (SSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
16:48:00 17.417N 64.900W 696.8 mb 3,155 m - From 203° (SSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
16:48:30 17.400N 64.917W 696.9 mb 3,158 m - From 199° (SSW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) - -
16:49:00 17.383N 64.933W 696.5 mb 3,163 m - From 201° (SSW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
16:49:30 17.350N 64.950W 696.9 mb 3,158 m - From 197° (SSW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
16:50:00 17.333N 64.967W 696.7 mb 3,160 m - From 199° (SSW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) - -
At 16:40:30Z (first observation), the observation was 97 miles (157 km) to the ESE (120°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 16:50:00Z (last observation), the observation was 104 miles (167 km) to the SE (136°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Quoting vortfix:
It's called "dry air" Omar!
And it is right there:






Yep. Hopefully for PR it keeps coming to the south. North of 20 it is being held at bay or moving W.

S of 20, though it is still coming...

Link
Quoting riograndpa:



we just had notice of a tornado just west of spi

im in brownsville and who told u about that tornado
Yep. Hopefully for PR it keeps coming to the south. North of 20 it is being held at bay or moving W.

It's moving in and Omar has to give!
115. IKE
Quoting Relix:
Puerto Rico spared? Not yet. Meteorologists are very worried here and they are constantly talking about a more westerly path with the NNE movement it's been doing for a while. Here i am receiving light gusts and it's quite cloudy.


Well...I'm looking at a radar loop of the COC and it's moving NE.

Mercedita,PR is listed at 18.0N and 66.6W................

Omar is at 15.2N and 67.2W. That's over 150 miles SSW from Mercedita. Tropical storm force winds only extend out 115 miles from the center. Explains the San Juan forecast of highest winds...

"Tonight
Cloudy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Lows 78 lower elevations ranging to 67 higher elevations. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent."
116. Relix
rhomanov I am in Levittown. POWER OUTAGE!! I am out of power!!
Riograndpa.
Thats Brilliant !
I love this place........
I would like to know about the eye wall in Omar; having been referenced several times by Jeff, I have never been able to make it out. Is an eye wall sometimes not visible, but still present?


looking good omar
120. Relix
So... Power out in PR it seems. Mny people are out of power. Oops
Quoting Relix:
rhomanov I am in Levittown. POWER OUTAGE!! I am out of power!!


Ouch... I guess we won't be hearing from you then. :(
could omar more northern mean it could start turning to the west
Quoting Relix:
So... Power out in PR it seems. Mny people are out of power. Oops


Thank you Relix! Ya se fue la luz? So early. This is not looking good.
Notice how the extent of heavy convection with Omar has shrunk and the tops warmed since daylight.

Water Vapor Loop
125. IKE
Quoting isiah23:
could omar more northern mean it could start turning to the west


It's trapped with one way to go...
Quoting IKE:


It's trapped with one way to go...



That's right Ike.
This trough is showing no sign of backing off yet.
127. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
Notice how the extent of heavy convection with Omar has shrunk and the tops warmed since daylight.

Water Vapor Loop


You're correct...I hadn't noticed that. Good news.
128. JLPR
little report from Carolina,PR =)

We still have power and I will inform until I loose it
-Very calm winds, almost no wind its so calm its creepy lol
-its cloudy and we had a lite shower a few minutes ago besides that nothing more
it just looks too still, too quiet =S
@119 the eyewall will build by the thunderstorms around the center so the wall is still present you can see it on the radar but the eye has not cleared out yet
Minnemike, if an eyewall isn't visibe on satellite, an is referenced, it's probably seen on microwave and/or radar
131. LMCid
Quoting Minnemike:
I would like to know about the eye wall in Omar; having been referenced several times by Jeff, I have never been able to make it out. Is an eye wall sometimes not visible, but still present?



Link
check ot the link to PR long range radar in blog
Quoting riograndpa:



OMG!! you're sliding off the island!!


ROFL - cleaning coffee off monitor
Quoting vortfix:
Notice how the extent of heavy convection with Omar has shrunk and the tops warmed since daylight.

Water Vapor Loop


While looking at this, notice what almost looks like a shock wave emanating towards the NW. Starts around the heaviest convection and moves towards East end of DR. You can even see some moisture separation in the last 5 frames. What the heck is it? Looks kind of like EMP.
Quoting isiah23:
could omar more northern mean it could start turning to the west


Fortunately, is not going to PR. Notice the shear on it's NW side... This is the strong SW shear Omar is experiencing and also notice how the moisture is being pulled rather rapidly NE.

I won't expect Omar to head NNE... I might expect some eastward wobbles than northward.
136. JLPR
In radar Omar's eyewall seems to be filling up am I right?
137. IKE
TD16 has gotten squashed...you can see it on WV loop getting forced toward the coast.
138. Relix
From laptop and battery power! I am still out of power, many people in Dorado are also reporting a loss of power. I don't know how much I can hang on but this is VERY VERY bad if I am uninformed this early. Oh snap
139. IKE
Quoting JLPR:
In radar Omar's eyewall seems to be filling up am I right?


I was just talking to myself saying that.
Evil look from the Caribbean

Well guys... this is round 2 of CMC forecasting a hit for FL for TD16. 12Z CMC is out.

It looks like it wants to visit IKE... but due to the stronger SW winds aloft is being kept from doing so.

Will be interesting to see what the 12Z ECMWF shows and NOGAPS.

143. JLPR
Quoting IKE:


I was just talking to myself saying that.


lol xD

also im having another lite shower but no wind
Quoting PcolaDan:


While looking at this, notice what almost looks like a shock wave emanating towards the NW. Starts around the heaviest convection and moves towards East end of DR. You can even see some moisture separation in the last 5 frames. What the heck is it? Looks kind of like EMP.



Looks like outflow from Omar slamming up against the troughal boundary...pretty cool.
RECON location....not there yet:

At 17:10:00Z (last observation), the observation was 130 miles (209 km) to the S (169°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
147. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:
Well guys... this is round 2 of CMC forecasting a hit for FL for TD16. 12Z CMC is out.

It looks like it wants to visit IKE... but due to the stronger SW winds aloft is being kept from doing so.

Will be interesting to see what the 12Z ECMWF shows and NOGAPS.



I don't believe that...if that does happen I'll be due a big helping of grilled crow w/A1 sauce.
138. Relix 1:08 PM
From laptop and battery power! I am still out of power, many people in Dorado are also reporting a loss of power. I don't know how much I can hang on but this is VERY VERY bad if I am uninformed this early. Oh snap


Hey Relix I am at Arecibo is it raining a lot there at Dorado?????
150. Relix
No it's not even raining. Just some minor gusts and some thunders, no reason for power to be out here and in parts of Dorado.
Quoting btwntx08:

im in brownsville and who told u about that tornado


jonathan owen on channel 5. said it was prob a cold core funnel that unlikely even touched the ground. he's coming on again now....
Thank you Orca!
I guess there's no argument that at least the official center is over land.
Reporting here from Humacao, Puerto Rico.

Very cloudy, constant light rain.
The rain gets stronger at times and dies out. Unfortunately, I went to the store at noon after a shower and noticed a lot of flooding beginning this soon.
The road I used has a creek that passes by and it has become a river already.

I think the northern component to Oscar may be over, thanfully. Also, it doesn't look too good... Rapid intensification or rapid weakening?
Quoting Relix:
No it's not even raining. Just some minor gusts and some thunders, no reason for power to be out here and in parts of Dorado.


I think the electric company is trying to force some folks from having to work today... guess they want to go home.
155. Relix
I am in a crisis here. No power SO EARLY ON? It's still moving NNE for all I can see. I am pissed right now =P
afternoon folks.

sorry if this was mentioned earlier I just got on :) But there was a 6.1 earthquake in the virgin islands this morning. First an earthquake next a hurricane. Poor folks =(

Omar looks impressive as ever from the few things I checked.
158. IKE
12Z CMC...Link

12Z NOGAPS shows what appears to be the EX-90L making it through the Caribbean by 180 hours...that could be an interesting set up. This weekends trough over the SE USA should begin lifting out by then...Link
Does anyone notice a circulation around 13.5N/77W ?
I expect we will see an increase in forward speed with Omar at the next advisory.
He's really getting squished right now.

Gotta move!
150. Relix 1:14 PM
No it's not even raining. Just some minor gusts and some thunders, no reason for power to be out here and in parts of Dorado


Que fastidio, I hope I have electricity by the time I get home....Thanks!!!!
162. PR51
Do you think is possible that Omar could change his track and move towards Puerto Rico? There are a lot of commentaries that this storm could impact PR, but watching the satellites I can't see that threat.
Quoting riograndpa:


jonathan owen on channel 5. said it was prob a cold core funnel that unlikely even touched the ground. he's coming on again now....

well when u first said about the funnel cloud it was before noon but when ch 5 came on for the noon news they went to jonathan about the funnel
Quoting Bonedog:
afternoon folks.

sorry if this was mentioned earlier I just got on :) But there was a 6.1 earthquake in the virgin islands this morning. First an earthquake next a hurricane. Poor folks =(

Omar looks impressive as ever from the few things I checked.


That earthquake was last saturday.
OR was there another 6.1 in the same spot? Didn't feel that one here on Puerto Rico, sure did feel Saturday's.
JLPR I see a forecast for Northern winds kicking in about midnight tonight 60 knots.
Quoting vortfix:
Thank you Orca!
I guess there's no argument that at least the official center is over land.


Thats a fact :)
Mind you.. if you look at a wider angle picture... it looks like its getting bigger
167. IKE
Quoting PR51:
Do you think is possible that Omar could change his track and move towards Puerto Rico? There are a lot of commentaries that this storm could impact PR, but watching the satellites I can't see that threat.


Nope...it won't happen. Look at this water vapor loop...Link
oops sorry if it was last saturday I didnt check the date just noticed it said it on the USGS site.

My Bad =(

At 17:20:00Z (last observation), the observation was 154 miles (248 km) to the S (181°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC...Link

12Z NOGAPS shows what appears to be the EX-90L making it through the Caribbean by 180 hours...that could be an interesting set up. This weekends trough over the SE USA should begin lifting out by then...Link


Indeed... we'll still have to watch TD16 as models are trending N and that souther High progression is tarting to stop and opening a weakness between 95 and 100 degrees W and 90L.
I dont think it will impact Puerto Rico.
But I wouldnt be surprised if the track kept coming closer. Perhaps may clip the east coast of Vieques.
This would make it possible for Hurricane winds to be on the East coast of Puerto Rico.
172. JLPR
Quoting msphar:
JLPR I see a forecast for Northern winds kicking in about midnight tonight 60 knots.


yep we are still now we should be getting deteriorating conditions as it gets dark =S
I will probably loose power then so I wont be here =\
Do you think is possible that Omar could change his track and move towards Puerto Rico? There are a lot of commentaries that this storm could impact PR, but watching the satellites I can't see that threat.


Please concentrate on the "cone" not the center line of the official track!
Is Omar fighting the trough?
It looks like it is pushing it back a bit near eastern Dominican Republic.
Do storms contract to get stronger and explode or is it a sign of weakening?
176. IKE
Omar's cone...

I don't like the idea of Omar getting any closer to the east coast of PR..specially when I live here in Fajardo...
Hi again.
The wave that came off Africa yesterday, is looking good now. Almost at 20W. Still a lot of moisture in the Atl. for something to get going there........
Quoting benirica:
Do storms contract to get stronger and explode or is it a sign of weakening?


They could get stronger by contracting but that's under ideal intensification scenerios... this one is not one of them as it has shear to deal with.
I doubt that HH will be landing back at St Croix.

Quoting Bonedog:
afternoon folks.

sorry if this was mentioned earlier I just got on :) But there was a 6.1 earthquake in the virgin islands this morning.


Biggest I can find since Monday night is a 3.7 and nothing else higher than 3.4
Dan I didnt realize it was from last week re post 168
recon just found 69.0 mph at flight level.
recon aproching omar so far pres. is 991
I dont know, but I think the track will shift east again, away from Puerto Rico.
Quoting yannik29:
recon aproching omar so far pres. is 991


I will say 95mph winds found.
Quoting Orcasystems:
I doubt that HH will be landing back at St Croix.


Was wondering about that myself. Know where they would go then?
Almost there:


At 17:30:00Z (last observation), the observation was 183 miles (295 km) to the S (189°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
RECON will probably base out of Homestead, FL
Quoting Bonedog:
Dan I didnt realize it was from last week re post 168


Caught your 168 post after I had posted. :)
Im guess our friends in the BVI and USVI have no power... nobody from there is on and it seems they are getting HAMMERED by rain.

How does this work? What keeps that rain from spinning around the center and affecting Puerto Rico?
If this holds up, we may not get too much rain on the main island of Puerto Rico.

(CROSSES FINGERS)
I wish the track was zoommed in more.. The islands are tiny and I don't know which is which.
aww i was born in homestead
Omar,The area of heaviest convection is shrinking fast. Will that concentrate the available energy, and make for stronger winds ?
195. IKE
Quoting benirica:
Im guess our friends in the BVI and USVI have no power... nobody from there is on and it seems they are getting HAMMERED by rain.

How does this work? What keeps that rain from spinning around the center and affecting Puerto Rico?
If this holds up, we may not get too much rain on the main island of Puerto Rico.

(CROSSES FINGERS)


That trough that's come down is forcing everything NE and it's(Omar), over 150 miles south/SW of PR now.

Yeah PR may escape much bad weather.
its all good Dan :)


BTW I was just looking at the models, whats up with the CMC? What in the world would make it think that?
From my memory of the area...
it looks like the storm with that track would clip
St. Croix
St Johns
Tortola and Jost Van Dyke
rain is the biggest concern here in PR..specially for the towns that got hammered just three weeks ago
Quoting RMM34667:
I wish the track was zoommed in more.. The islands are tiny and I don't know which is which.


Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


I will say 95mph winds found.


Don't know if it will make it. HH only about 90 from buoy 42059 which has already seen significant drop from 50k to about 29k winds and pressure rising quickly.

Edit: the race is on lol
201. Relix
Power's temporarily back at least here.

Crisis averted XD
202. PR51
Quoting benirica:
Im guess our friends in the BVI and USVI have no power... nobody from there is on and it seems they are getting HAMMERED by rain.

How does this work? What keeps that rain from spinning around the center and affecting Puerto Rico?
If this holds up, we may not get too much rain on the main island of Puerto Rico.

(CROSSES FINGERS)


Precisely, for this reason I' ve been saying that the effects from this storm will be minimal, for not saying none. I think that this storm won't do anything to our Island, and judging by satellites images it seems to be weakening and contracting his Thunderstorms. I bet for nothing concerning Omar in PR Mainland.
This could be like Frances back in the day.
Apocalyps was predicted and the rain could be seen from the beaches on the north coast, but not much happened on Puerto Rico.
Every stocked up on booze and had not reason to drink it.
Im sure they did ok with that problem.
pres down to 973
973.6 mb
62 knots
(~ 71.3 mph)


I only quote SFMR surface estimated winds!


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 17:39Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 07

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
17:30:30 15.783N 66.533W 696.9 mb 3,032 m 991.0 mb From 124° (SE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 53 kts 6 mm/hr
17:31:00 15.750N 66.550W 696.8 mb 3,022 m 988.6 mb From 122° (ESE) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 55 kts 10 mm/hr
17:31:30 15.733N 66.567W 696.3 mb 3,017 m 988.4 mb From 118° (ESE) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 57 kts 13 mm/hr
17:32:00 15.700N 66.600W 696.8 mb 2,996 m 987.9 mb From 122° (ESE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 56 kts 12 mm/hr
17:32:30 15.683N 66.617W 696.7 mb 2,985 m 985.7 mb From 107° (ESE) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 58 kts* 11 mm/hr*
17:33:00 15.650N 66.633W 697.6 mb 2,963 m 979.2 mb From 83° (E) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 61 kts* 6 mm/hr*
17:33:30 15.633N 66.633W 697.6 mb 2,949 m 977.9 mb From 84° (E) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 59 kts* 3 mm/hr*
17:34:00 15.600N 66.633W 695.2 mb 2,977 m 973.7 mb From 89° (E) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 55 kts* 4 mm/hr*
17:34:30 15.567N 66.633W 697.4 mb 2,939 m 973.6 mb From 99° (E) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) 32 kts* 0 mm/hr*
17:35:00 15.533N 66.633W 696.4 mb 2,951 m 975.4 mb From 150° (SSE) at 5 kts (5.8 mph) 6 kts (~ 6.9 mph) 23 kts* 0 mm/hr*
17:35:30 15.500N 66.633W 697.2 mb 2,937 m 974.4 mb From 179° (S) at 5 kts (5.8 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) 24 kts 0 mm/hr
17:36:00 15.483N 66.633W 697.2 mb 2,936 m 974.9 mb From 275° (W) at 9 kts (10.3 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 23 kts 0 mm/hr
17:36:30 15.450N 66.633W 696.2 mb 2,947 m 975.5 mb From 284° (WNW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 25 kts 0 mm/hr
17:37:00 15.417N 66.633W 697.0 mb 2,944 m 976.4 mb From 272° (W) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
17:37:30 15.383N 66.650W 696.2 mb 2,960 m 977.3 mb From 273° (W) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 47 kts* 1 mm/hr*
17:38:00 15.367N 66.650W 696.7 mb 2,961 m 978.8 mb From 277° (W) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 55 kts* 0 mm/hr*
17:38:30 15.350N 66.667W 696.6 mb 2,971 m 980.5 mb From 279° (W) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 60 kts 0 mm/hr
17:39:00 15.333N 66.683W 696.2 mb 2,987 m 982.2 mb From 286° (WNW) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 80 kts (~ 92.0 mph) 62 kts 1 mm/hr
17:39:30 15.317N 66.717W 697.6 mb 2,979 m 984.1 mb From 291° (WNW) at 81 kts (93.1 mph) 82 kts (~ 94.3 mph) 62 kts 2 mm/hr
17:40:00 15.300N 66.733W 696.4 mb 3,003 m 984.3 mb From 292° (WNW) at 86 kts (98.9 mph) 86 kts (~ 98.9 mph) 62 kts 0 mm/hr
At 17:30:30Z (first observation), the observation was 184 miles (297 km) to the S (190°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 17:40:00Z (last observation), the observation was 220 miles (354 km) to the SSW (192°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

206. Relix
I also see it's moving NE again. T-storm winds for me at least.
that is a big drop... likely an error?
208. IKE
So much for it weakening.
199.. Thanks Orca. Now I have a better grasp of what's where.
RMM here is a zoomed in track for you

Link
211. IKE
Quoting benirica:
that is a big drop... likely an error?


Looks legit.
Quoting benirica:
I dont know, but I think the track will shift east again, away from Puerto Rico.


Agree!

Time:
17:40:00Z
Coordinates:
15.3N 66.7333W
Acft. Static Air Press:
696.4 mb (~ 20.56 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
3,003 meters (~ 9,852 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
984.3 mb (~ 29.07 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 292° at 86 knots (From the WNW at ~ 98.9 mph)
Air Temp:
12.3°C (~ 54.1°F)
Dew Pt:
6.0°C (~ 42.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
86 knots (~ 98.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Probably a legit pressure....we'll see.
there goes the weakening theory out the door
Still power on for now on Tortola. A very heavy band of rain been moving through the last 90 minutes and winds increasing. We're safely shuttered in now, so i guess now we just wait..estimate for landfall in BVI getting later, lately looking like early to mid morning tomorrow rather than late tonight as was thought yesterday
Recon could base in Antigua. They have done so many times. Antigua may be out of the windfield.

Time:
17:35:30Z
Coordinates:
15.5N 66.6333W
Acft. Static Air Press:
697.2 mb (~ 20.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
2,937 meters (~ 9,636 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press:
974.4 mb (~ 28.77 inHg)

D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 179° at 5 knots (From the S at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp:
16.0°C (~ 60.8°F)
Dew Pt:
6.0°C (~ 42.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:
24 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
0 mm/hr (~ 0 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

def no error many readings around 970-980
Vortex message would be nice.
Flight level wind of around 100mph, also.

About 90mph at the surface, perhaps.
Im not looking at loops anymore.
They give me false thoughts...
Either a false scare or a false sense of security!
It is easy to be confused by the convection if you aren't trained to see what is important.

So... I'll shut up about where its going until the pros say it.
You are shrinking Omar!




URNT15 KNHC 151739
AF306 0415A OMAR HDOB 07 20081015
173030 1547N 06632W 6969 03032 9910 +099 +060 124054 056 053 006 00
173100 1545N 06633W 6968 03022 9886 +108 +060 122048 052 055 010 00
173130 1544N 06634W 6963 03017 9884 +097 +060 118049 052 057 013 00
173200 1542N 06636W 6968 02996 9879 +092 +060 122055 058 056 012 00
173230 1541N 06637W 6967 02985 9857 +098 +060 107038 045 058 011 03
173300 1539N 06638W 6976 02963 9792 +145 +060 083033 034 061 006 03
173330 1538N 06638W 6976 02949 9779 +147 +060 084025 027 059 003 03
173400 1536N 06638W 6952 02977 9737 +176 +060 089024 026 055 004 03
173430 1534N 06638W 6974 02939 9736 +172 +060 099010 015 032 000 03
173500 1532N 06638W 6964 02951 9754 +154 +060 150005 006 023 000 03
173530 1530N 06638W 6972 02937 9744 +160 +060 179005 007 024 000 00
173600 1529N 06638W 6972 02936 9749 +153 +060 275009 013 023 000 00
173630 1527N 06638W 6962 02947 9755 +148 +060 284021 025 025 000 00
173700 1525N 06638W 6970 02944 9764 +143 +060 272031 037 028 000 00
173730 1523N 06639W 6962 02960 9773 +141 +060 273048 051 047 001 03
173800 1522N 06639W 6967 02961 9788 +136 +060 277061 068 055 000 03
173830 1521N 06640W 6966 02971 9805 +129 +060 279068 070 060 000 00
173900 1520N 06641W 6962 02987 9822 +125 +060 286076 080 062 001 00
173930 1519N 06643W 6976 02979 9841 +116 +060 291081 082 062 002 00
174000 1518N 06644W 6964 03003 9843 +123 +060 292086 086 062 000 00
$$


985.5 mb
60 knots
(~ 69.0 mph)




Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 17:50Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 08

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
17:40:30 15.283N 66.750W 697.1 mb 3,005 m 985.5 mb From 293° (WNW) at 84 kts (96.6 mph) 86 kts (~ 98.9 mph) 60 kts 0 mm/hr
17:41:00 15.267N 66.767W 696.7 mb 3,023 m 987.7 mb From 292° (WNW) at 80 kts (92.0 mph) 81 kts (~ 93.1 mph) 59 kts 1 mm/hr
17:41:30 15.250N 66.783W 696.4 mb 3,036 m 990.3 mb From 289° (WNW) at 75 kts (86.2 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 56 kts 0 mm/hr
17:42:00 15.233N 66.800W 696.7 mb 3,042 m 992.3 mb From 290° (WNW) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 55 kts 0 mm/hr
17:42:30 15.217N 66.817W 696.6 mb 3,050 m 993.7 mb From 294° (WNW) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 54 kts 0 mm/hr
17:43:00 15.200N 66.833W 696.8 mb 3,054 m 993.6 mb From 296° (WNW) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 53 kts 0 mm/hr
17:43:30 15.183N 66.850W 697.2 mb 3,059 m 993.8 mb From 299° (WNW) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 52 kts 0 mm/hr
17:44:00 15.167N 66.867W 696.7 mb 3,069 m 994.7 mb From 297° (WNW) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 50 kts 0 mm/hr
17:44:30 15.150N 66.883W 696.9 mb 3,074 m 995.4 mb From 294° (WNW) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 48 kts 0 mm/hr
17:45:00 15.133N 66.917W 697.1 mb 3,075 m 996.4 mb From 289° (WNW) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 47 kts 0 mm/hr
17:45:30 15.117N 66.933W 696.8 mb 3,082 m 997.4 mb From 287° (WNW) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 45 kts 0 mm/hr
17:46:00 15.100N 66.950W 697.1 mb 3,084 m 997.9 mb From 289° (WNW) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 45 kts 1 mm/hr
17:46:30 15.083N 66.967W 696.8 mb 3,090 m 998.8 mb From 290° (WNW) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 45 kts 0 mm/hr
17:47:00 15.067N 66.983W 696.7 mb 3,099 m 998.4 mb From 294° (WNW) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 43 kts 0 mm/hr
17:47:30 15.050N 67.000W 696.9 mb 3,096 m 999.5 mb From 289° (WNW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
17:48:00 15.033N 67.017W 696.8 mb 3,101 m 999.8 mb From 289° (WNW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
17:48:30 15.017N 67.050W 696.9 mb 3,102 m 1000.0 mb From 290° (WNW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 40 kts 0 mm/hr
17:49:00 15.000N 67.067W 696.8 mb 3,106 m 1000.3 mb From 290° (WNW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
17:49:30 14.983N 67.083W 696.8 mb 3,103 m 1000.6 mb From 288° (WNW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 38 kts 0 mm/hr
17:50:00 14.967N 67.100W 696.9 mb 3,109 m 1000.8 mb From 288° (WNW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
At 17:40:30Z (first observation), the observation was 221 miles (356 km) to the SSW (192°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 17:50:00Z (last observation), the observation was 248 miles (399 km) to the SSW (196°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

so its weakened to a storm and getting smaller???
227. Relix
Quoting benirica:
Im not looking at loops anymore.
They give me false thoughts...
Either a false scare or a false sense of security!
It is easy to be confused by the convection if you aren't trained to see what is important.

So... I'll shut up about where its going until the pros say it.


Yeah I am just gonna ride this out till it's over. Won't cause major impacts at all in PR, not even rain I think.
SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind

60 knots
(~ 69.0 mph)



These are the winds that matter....not the flight level winds at 10,00 feet.
Who among us in the potentially affected islands lives at 10,000 feet??

Quoting Guiness:
so its weakened to a storm and getting smaller???


No...

He was being stupid.
So it seems Guinness. Shrinking all the time. Still moving slowly though........
Quoting vortfix:
SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind

60 knots
(~ 69.0 mph)



These are the winds that matter....not the flight level winds at 10,00 feet.
Who among us in the potentially affected islands lives at 10,000 feet??



Recon surface winds have been unreliable all season for some reason. I remember with Ike and Gus recording far too low winds, so NHC went off the deduction from flight winds. Probably what they'll do here, also.
sorry to be naive but about how long until these data get analyzed and new tracking predictions are made?
URNT12 KNHC 151754
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152008
A. 15/17:35:50Z
B. 15 deg 29 min N
066 deg 38 min W
C. 700 mb 2905 m
D. 61 kt
E. 002 deg 10 nm
F. 138 deg 063 kt
G. 029 deg 026 nm
H. EXTRAP 978 mb
I. 11 C/ 3047 m
J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 6 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0415A OMAR OB 03
MAX FL OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 87 KT SW QUAD 17:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
EYEWALL POORLY DEFINED


Quoting Guiness:
so its weakened to a storm and getting smaller???


No, Omar is probably tightening up.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 17:54Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2008
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 17:35:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°29'N 66°38'W (15.4833N 66.6333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 206 miles (332 km) between the S and SSW (191°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,905m (9,531ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 61kts (~ 70.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (2°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 138° at 63kts (From the SE at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NNE (29°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 87kts (~ 100.1mph) in the southwest quadrant at 17:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph) in the southwest quadrant at 17:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL POORLY DEFINED
hey- just logged on so excuse me if this is repeated but the CMC brings TD 16 into the GOM and turns it into a storm, hitting Florida?...

Link
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...380
KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER
TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR
SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
64 MPH...104 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.
ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

They don't often say that, which leads me to think that the NHC are waiting for the winds to work their way down. By the time it does, should be a Cat 2.
238. Cotillion 2:05 PM EDT on October 15, 2008
ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

They don't often say that, which leads me to thin


Thats where flight level winds also come into play
240. PR51
Quoting Relix:


Yeah I am just gonna ride this out till it's over. Won't cause major impacts at all in PR, not even rain I think.


I agree
This is what I have been seeing:


OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...



Almost doubled the forward speed!

so we have an closed eyewall yet? sounds so poorly defined but closed?
I do not think Omar is tightening up now. There is too much dry air NE and SW of it, and it is having trouble inhaling moisture.
It is also shrinking fast too.
61 kts. is not very impressive.
Omar never did follow the forecasts for very long at any time.......
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.


Looks like NHC is keeping an eye on Omar for PR. Doesn't take much of a jog for PR's eastern side to be affected
Quoting KeyWestwx:
hey- just logged on so excuse me if this is repeated but the CMC brings TD 16 into the GOM and turns it into a storm, hitting Florida?...

Link


Yeah, we're not sure what drugs it is on, but they haven't worn off since the 00Z run.
ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.



They say that all the time whenever there is elevated terrain.

In the islands...there is elevated terrain.

Flight level winds are usually only a 10% factor in setting the official intensity.
90% is based on surface estimates.
Quoting KeyWestwx:
hey- just logged on so excuse me if this is repeated but the CMC brings TD 16 into the GOM and turns it into a storm, hitting Florida?...

Link


I hope that's very wrong. It takes the storm directly to the Appalachee Bay area on my doorstep. I think it's the only model indicating a path even close to that, though.
248. LMCid
Quoting pottery:
... There is too much dry air NE and SW of it, and it is having trouble inhaling moisture.
...


Dry air to the NW and SE?
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 18:09Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 10

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
18:00:30 14.583N 67.517W 696.8 mb 3,138 m 1003.3 mb From 293° (WNW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 33 kts 0 mm/hr
18:01:00 14.567N 67.550W 696.8 mb 3,136 m 1002.8 mb From 294° (WNW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
18:01:30 14.550N 67.567W 697.1 mb 3,137 m 1002.9 mb From 294° (WNW) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
18:02:00 14.533N 67.583W 696.7 mb 3,138 m 1002.8 mb From 291° (WNW) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 30 kts 0 mm/hr
18:02:30 14.500N 67.600W 696.9 mb 3,140 m 1002.3 mb From 292° (WNW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:03:00 14.483N 67.633W 696.9 mb 3,140 m 1002.4 mb From 296° (WNW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:03:30 14.483N 67.633W 696.9 mb 3,140 m 1002.5 mb From 297° (WNW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:04:00 14.450N 67.667W 697.5 mb 3,134 m 1003.1 mb From 294° (WNW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:04:30 14.433N 67.683W 697.2 mb 3,139 m 1003.4 mb From 289° (WNW) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:05:00 14.417N 67.717W 696.4 mb 3,145 m 1003.8 mb From 290° (WNW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) 27 kts 0 mm/hr
18:05:30 14.400N 67.733W 697.1 mb 3,142 m 1004.1 mb From 291° (WNW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
18:06:00 14.383N 67.750W 696.4 mb 3,149 m 1004.1 mb From 290° (WNW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:06:30 14.350N 67.767W 697.1 mb 3,141 m 1003.8 mb From 286° (WNW) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
18:07:00 14.333N 67.800W 696.8 mb 3,145 m 1003.8 mb From 283° (WNW) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
18:07:30 14.317N 67.817W 696.9 mb 3,143 m 1003.1 mb From 282° (WNW) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
18:08:00 14.300N 67.833W 696.9 mb 3,146 m 1003.2 mb From 282° (WNW) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
18:08:30 14.283N 67.850W 696.8 mb 3,146 m 1003.3 mb From 281° (W/WNW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
18:09:00 14.267N 67.883W 696.7 mb 3,150 m 1003.0 mb From 285° (WNW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
18:09:30 14.250N 67.900W 696.8 mb 3,149 m 1002.8 mb From 287° (WNW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:10:00 14.233N 67.917W 696.5 mb 3,151 m 1002.7 mb From 289° (WNW) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
At 18:00:30Z (first observation), the observation was 282 miles (454 km) to the SSW (200°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 18:10:00Z (last observation), the observation was 314 miles (506 km) to the SSW (203°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

pottery check your compass. NE is a huge plume of moisture so is SW. If you mean to the NW then yes its dry air but definatley not to the NE
Quoting Seastep:


Yeah, we're not sure what drugs it is on, but they haven't worn off since the 00Z run.


LOL- well, at least someone's having fun.
@pottery dry air is no problem yet for omar it could be a problem if dry air rech the center of omar but at the moment dry air have no effect
254. Prgal
Latest HWRF puts the center going through Culebra. Am I right? Link
Quoting pottery:
I do not think Omar is tightening up now. There is too much dry air NE and SW of it, and it is having trouble inhaling moisture.
It is also shrinking fast too.
61 kts. is not very impressive.
Omar never did follow the forecasts for very long at any time.......


Yeah there are some elements, but it has also dropped pressure again quite considerably. Weakening storms don't tend to do that.
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


I hope that's very wrong. It takes the storm directly to the Appalachee Bay area on my doorstep. I think it's the only model indicating a path even close to that, though.


Yeah, all the other models show completely different tracks, though at one time, most of the models had Ike at my doorstep for awhile???????????
LMCid, yes.
The storm is pulling in moisture from the south. Wind shear to its NW along with the ridge and dry air there is affecting it.
258. Grin
I'm on St Croix. The power's on, internet is still fine. We're getting light rain and no wind at the moment, 2:18pm local time. Heavy rain has fallen off and on and I'd guess our total to be around 3" so far.
That's the "official" word till 5pm.



DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR
SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

LOL Bone. Read my post, not LMCid's response. He misquoted me !

I can see there has been a pressure drop, but I cannot see where the system is going to continue to get its energy from, all things considered. Check it out.
Comments welcomed.....

This obs is out on the SW side....not much happening there as expected:



Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 18:19Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 11

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
18:10:30 14.200N 67.933W 696.7 mb 3,149 m 1002.8 mb From 290° (WNW) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:11:00 14.183N 67.967W 696.7 mb 3,150 m 1003.3 mb From 290° (WNW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 26 kts* 0 mm/hr*
18:11:30 14.167N 67.967W 696.1 mb 3,162 m 1004.2 mb From 280° (W) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) - -
18:12:00 14.150N 67.933W 696.7 mb 3,151 m 1004.1 mb From 276° (W) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 21 kts* 0 mm/hr*
18:12:30 14.150N 67.900W 696.8 mb 3,150 m 1003.8 mb From 269° (W) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 27 kts* 0 mm/hr*
18:13:00 14.167N 67.867W 696.9 mb 3,149 m 1003.3 mb From 271° (W) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:13:30 14.167N 67.833W 696.9 mb 3,148 m 1003.2 mb From 272° (W) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 27 kts 0 mm/hr
18:14:00 14.167N 67.800W 696.8 mb 3,149 m 1002.6 mb From 275° (W) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
18:14:30 14.167N 67.767W 696.9 mb 3,150 m 1002.8 mb From 268° (W) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:15:00 14.167N 67.733W 696.7 mb 3,148 m 1003.1 mb From 264° (W) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
18:15:30 14.167N 67.700W 696.8 mb 3,145 m 1003.3 mb From 261° (W) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 27 kts 0 mm/hr
18:16:00 14.167N 67.667W 696.9 mb 3,145 m 1003.7 mb From 260° (W) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:16:30 14.167N 67.633W 696.9 mb 3,144 m 1003.5 mb From 259° (W) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 27 kts (~ 31.0 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
18:17:00 14.167N 67.600W 696.5 mb 3,147 m 1002.9 mb From 257° (WSW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
18:17:30 14.167N 67.567W 696.8 mb 3,144 m 1003.5 mb From 254° (WSW) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:18:00 14.167N 67.533W 696.9 mb 3,141 m 1003.5 mb From 257° (WSW) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
18:18:30 14.167N 67.500W 696.9 mb 3,145 m 1003.5 mb From 254° (WSW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
18:19:00 14.183N 67.450W 696.7 mb 3,148 m 1004.0 mb From 252° (WSW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) 30 kts 0 mm/hr
18:19:30 14.183N 67.417W 696.8 mb 3,147 m 1003.8 mb From 254° (WSW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
18:20:00 14.183N 67.383W 696.7 mb 3,148 m 1003.3 mb From 254° (WSW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) 34 kts 0 mm/hr
At 18:10:30Z (first observation), the observation was 317 miles (510 km) to the SSW (203°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 18:20:00Z (last observation), the observation was 305 miles (491 km) to the SSW (197°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).



Pick a colour..any colour :)

Click to enlarge
If Omar stays on the track, it will be over some warm water and the Islands in its path will do little to weaken him. Just to the West of St Croix, just to the East of St John and Tortola and West of Virgin Gorda.
I agree with you Pottery.
Omar's power sources are effectively being cut in half by encroaching dry air.

Likely won't be long till some of that gets entrained into the system.
The last Vortex message had surface winds of 61 kts. The 85 kts is from an earlier mission surely.
Correct me here ??
267. LMCid
Quoting pottery:
LOL Bone. Read my post, not LMCid's response. He misquoted me !

I can see there has been a pressure drop, but I cannot see where the system is going to continue to get its energy from, all things considered. Check it out.
Comments welcomed.....


No I did not... LOL
LMCid, I said there was dry air NW and SE
Whats up ??

OOOPS. LOL, this post eddited to read what I said....
Quoting lawntonlookers:
If Omar stays on the track, it will be over some warm water and the Islands in its path will do little to weaken him. Just to the West of St Croix, just to the East of St John and Tortola and West of Virgin Gorda.


Then onward to UK. Tallyhoooooo! :)
oops on 9a NHC has issued:

CORRECTED POSITION LATITUDE IN MAIN BODY AND REPEAT SECTION


AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...310
KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...SOUTH OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Then onward to UK. Tallyhoooooo! :)


Eugh, another one?

We're bored of deceased hurricanes by now. :(
Quoting Orcasystems:


Pick a colour..any colour :)

Click to enlarge
Light blue
Quoting KeyWestwx:


Yeah, all the other models show completely different tracks, though at one time, most of the models had Ike at my doorstep for awhile???????????


If you go frame by frame, seems as if the reason is that the CMC is popping the low out to the E of Nic and then bringing it back, while the others have it moving W from the outset.

I guess, if a L develops to the E of Nic it's a possibility. Wait, is that a swirl I see off the NE coast of Nic at 15N/82W? ;)

Link

Not likely, but I will be watching E of Nic. Who knows what the others do with it if it starts there?
Quoting Cotillion:


Eugh, another one?

We're bored of deceased hurricanes by now. :(


Keeps Florida tourist dollars (pounds) coming that way. LOL
Not much here....but this is a RECON flight....they're getting ready for another pass soon:


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 18:29Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 12

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
18:20:30 14.183N 67.350W 696.9 mb 3,144 m 1002.9 mb From 255° (WSW) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 32 kts 0 mm/hr
18:21:00 14.183N 67.317W 696.8 mb 3,148 m 1003.0 mb From 255° (WSW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 33 kts 0 mm/hr
18:21:30 14.183N 67.283W 696.5 mb 3,147 m 1003.2 mb From 254° (WSW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 33 kts 0 mm/hr
18:22:00 14.183N 67.250W 696.8 mb 3,142 m 1003.9 mb From 256° (WSW) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 33 kts 0 mm/hr
18:22:30 14.183N 67.217W 696.9 mb 3,141 m 1003.6 mb From 258° (WSW/W) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 32 kts 1 mm/hr
18:23:00 14.183N 67.167W 696.9 mb 3,142 m 1003.3 mb From 257° (WSW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 34 kts 0 mm/hr
18:23:30 14.183N 67.133W 696.8 mb 3,143 m 1003.0 mb From 257° (WSW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 35 kts 0 mm/hr
18:24:00 14.183N 67.100W 696.9 mb 3,142 m 1003.1 mb From 259° (W) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 35 kts 0 mm/hr
18:24:30 14.183N 67.067W 696.8 mb 3,142 m 1003.2 mb From 258° (WSW/W) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 36 kts 0 mm/hr
18:25:00 14.183N 67.033W 696.9 mb 3,141 m 1003.4 mb From 256° (WSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
18:25:30 14.183N 67.000W 697.1 mb 3,138 m 1004.1 mb From 253° (WSW) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
18:26:00 14.183N 66.967W 696.9 mb 3,140 m 1004.2 mb From 249° (WSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 36 kts 0 mm/hr
18:26:30 14.200N 66.917W 696.5 mb 3,144 m 1004.2 mb From 246° (WSW) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 36 kts 1 mm/hr
18:27:00 14.200N 66.883W 697.1 mb 3,139 m 1003.4 mb From 248° (WSW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) 38 kts 0 mm/hr
18:27:30 14.200N 66.850W 696.7 mb 3,140 m 1003.6 mb From 251° (WSW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
18:28:00 14.200N 66.817W 696.8 mb 3,141 m 1003.2 mb From 249° (WSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
18:28:30 14.200N 66.783W 697.1 mb 3,136 m 1003.3 mb From 246° (WSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 38 kts 0 mm/hr
18:29:00 14.200N 66.750W 696.7 mb 3,141 m 1002.8 mb From 247° (WSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
18:29:30 14.200N 66.717W 696.6 mb 3,139 m 1003.6 mb From 243° (WSW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) 40 kts 1 mm/hr
18:30:00 14.200N 66.667W 696.8 mb 3,138 m 1002.9 mb From 245° (WSW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 43 kts 2 mm/hr
At 18:20:30Z (first observation), the observation was 305 miles (490 km) to the SSW (196°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 18:30:00Z (last observation), the observation was 294 miles (473 km) to the S (188°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).



Quoting theshepherd:
Light blue


If you're right, we should ahve an interesting view of norman island and st john from our house, with the eye just passing about 1-2 miles out to sea...

:/
OMAR IS MOVING NORTH OF EAST AND THAT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FUTURE TRACK


Eastern leg
279. 7544
td 16 ? will the other models follow
Link
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


I hope that's very wrong. It takes the storm directly to the Appalachee Bay area on my doorstep. I think it's the only model indicating a path even close to that, though.


It's not coming to FL. It's heading inland...No worries.
As of the 2pm advisory Omar is moving this way!


OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...
pottery I did read your original post 243

you had your compass backwards LOL
Quoting stoormfury:
OMAR IS MOVING NORTH OF EAST AND THAT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE FUTURE TRACK


Eastern eyewall is already due S of San Juan and too far S to get N fast enough... even if NNE track, it wouldn't hit PR mainland.
My post 243.
Well I'll be dammed. And probably am too.
Sincere apologies. LMCid is correct. I screwed up.
I obviously meant that there is dry air to the NORTHWEST and SOUTHEAST of the storm.
Slinking back into my corner here.
Omar is moving more Easterly than Northerly!

Please.

286. amd
So, the storm is on a faster heading to the ENE and dry air is already at the Mona Passage. IMHO, I wouldn't be surprised if the core of the hurricane misses Puerto Rico completely to the east, and also if more of the northern lesser antilies (sp?) experiences the full effect of Omar.

Another thing to note is that Omar has responded to the dry air to the west by moving more on an eastern heading. If the storm turns back to the NE or even NNE heading, dry air will in all likelihood enter the system, and weakening will probably occur.

However, if the storm stays on an ENE heading, it may avoid any dry air intruding into the system, and the storm could strengthen.
YES vORTIX the 2pm advisory says ene but of now the sat pics are showing a nof east track
Guys and Gals remeber just because the center isn't making a direct hit TS force winds and rains can still impact areas. The storm is has 110 mile TS winds from the center
If it keeps more ENE the worst should miss all the US and BVI's to the east and hopefully miss st martin Antigua to the west....any comments on whether this could happen??
LMCid. I am sorry...
Quoting vortfix:
Omar is moving more Easterly than Northerly!

Please.



Hey speak for yourself!

So why do all of the models still have Omar heading straight for the Virgin Islands? If it was heading ENE shouldn't it be coming towards the St.Martin/St. Kitts area?
Hey y'all, quick question... I've been following Omar in Google Earth with the Weather Tools from Google Earth Blog package, along with some other plug0ins of my own that I've added along the way.

But what I just noticed is that the "Active Storm Track" (under Hurricanes - Live Positions >> GuiWeather Tropical Storms >> Atlantic & Eastern Pacific Storms >> Official NHC Products) has the storm jumping out east of the stated NHC 2PM position.

I'm assuming it's probably a computer or rendering error somewhere along the way. But just thought it looked really odd, and was wondering if anyone else noticed.

That would have an important impact for those of us over here in the Leewards though, so it is very important for me that that really be just a glitch, if you know what I mean.

Best of luck to everyone as the storm approaches, and God bless.
293. DDR
Hi pottery,had a heavy but brief shower last night and this morning,theres a moisture surge ahead of the next wave heading our way.
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 18:39Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 13

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
18:30:30 14.200N 66.633W 696.5 mb 3,143 m 1004.3 mb From 247° (WSW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 42 kts 4 mm/hr
18:31:00 14.200N 66.600W 697.4 mb 3,129 m 1003.9 mb From 253° (WSW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 42 kts 2 mm/hr
18:31:30 14.200N 66.567W 695.7 mb 3,149 m 1005.4 mb From 251° (WSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 44 kts 8 mm/hr
18:32:00 14.200N 66.533W 698.4 mb 3,117 m 1005.8 mb From 251° (WSW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 42 kts 5 mm/hr
18:32:30 14.200N 66.500W 696.2 mb 3,146 m 1005.6 mb From 240° (WSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 45 kts 7 mm/hr
18:33:00 14.200N 66.450W 696.3 mb 3,145 m 1006.4 mb From 237° (WSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 45 kts 9 mm/hr
18:33:30 14.200N 66.417W 696.9 mb 3,133 m 1005.9 mb From 237° (WSW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) 44 kts 5 mm/hr
18:34:00 14.217N 66.383W 697.2 mb 3,134 m 1004.1 mb From 236° (SW/WSW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 43 kts 1 mm/hr
18:34:30 14.217N 66.350W 696.4 mb 3,143 m 1004.2 mb From 236° (SW/WSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 44 kts 0 mm/hr
18:35:00 14.217N 66.317W 697.2 mb 3,136 m 1004.0 mb From 232° (SW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 43 kts 0 mm/hr
18:35:30 14.217N 66.283W 696.5 mb 3,143 m 1003.9 mb From 230° (SW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 43 kts 0 mm/hr
18:36:00 14.217N 66.250W 696.9 mb 3,138 m 1004.3 mb From 228° (SW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 42 kts 0 mm/hr
18:36:30 14.217N 66.200W 696.8 mb 3,141 m 1004.2 mb From 230° (SW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 43 kts 0 mm/hr
18:37:00 14.217N 66.167W 696.9 mb 3,138 m 1004.2 mb From 229° (SW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 42 kts 0 mm/hr
18:37:30 14.217N 66.133W 696.7 mb 3,142 m 1004.2 mb From 228° (SW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
18:38:00 14.217N 66.100W 696.9 mb 3,137 m 1003.8 mb From 232° (SW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
18:38:30 14.217N 66.067W 696.8 mb 3,139 m 1004.5 mb From 228° (SW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 40 kts 0 mm/hr
18:39:00 14.217N 66.033W 696.8 mb 3,141 m 1004.0 mb From 228° (SW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 42 kts 0 mm/hr
18:39:30 14.217N 66.000W 696.8 mb 3,141 m 1003.7 mb From 225° (SW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 42 kts 0 mm/hr
18:40:00 14.217N 65.967W 696.9 mb 3,141 m 1003.8 mb From 222° (SW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 42 kts 0 mm/hr
At 18:30:30Z (first observation), the observation was 294 miles (473 km) to the S (187°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 18:40:00Z (last observation), the observation was 290 miles (467 km) to the S (179°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Quoting ReppinDeSKB:


Hey speak for yourself!

So why do all of the models still have Omar heading straight for the Virgin Islands? If it was heading ENE shouldn't it be coming towards the St.Martin/St. Kitts area?


Omar's been "stair-stepping" all day. NNE then ENE, then NNE, then ENE... end result NE.
Quoting Seastep:


Omar's been "stair-stepping" all day. NNE then ENE, then NNE, then ENE... end result NE.


Then he'll stick two fingers up to all models and forecasters and go SW. :P
Y'all really need to back away from whatever Sat Loops you're looking at.

I have been hearing for over 24 hours that Omar is heading for PR.
It hasn't come true yet!

You're telling me in less than an hour after the NHC says ENE...that that is not true?

Please.....

According to NHC,OMAR had a ENE track with a gradual turn to the NE occur tonight that 's mean with increasing "forward" speed,the hurricane will directly hit Saba and St.Martin with a Tropical Storm Warning in Guadeloupe later today.
299. Relix
What are you guys saying? The NOAA here at PR declared that the system would be closer than ever to PR, just 35 miles west of PR between our island and Vieques, if you can read Spanish:

http://www.elnuevodia.com/diario/noticia/puerto_rico_hoy/noticias/avanza_omar/473909

What gives?
301. LMCid
Don't be, happens to me all the time.
302. PR51
Omar moving almost East not NE, so there will be a change in the trajectory in the 5 pm advisory. I reaffirm my forecast of no effect in Puerto Rico, not even rains. Look at the satellites and radar loops, the rains are moving east, far away from our Island. The local news should stop from saying that there will be catastrophic damages...
Just watched the North Atlantic visible loop and it looks like Omar is rapidly moving in an easterly direction instead of NE. Does anybody else see that?
this is rare for this time of year
OMAR will pass 50 miles south of St.Croix and won't affecting much Puerto Rico as mentioned.
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 18:49Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 14

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
18:40:30 14.217N 65.917W 696.8 mb 3,143 m 1003.9 mb From 223° (SW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 42 kts 0 mm/hr
18:41:00 14.217N 65.883W 696.8 mb 3,142 m 1003.9 mb From 223° (SW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
18:41:30 14.217N 65.850W 697.1 mb 3,141 m 1003.9 mb From 223° (SW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
18:42:00 14.233N 65.817W 696.9 mb 3,143 m 1004.1 mb From 220° (SW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 38 kts 0 mm/hr
18:42:30 14.233N 65.783W 696.9 mb 3,145 m 1004.1 mb From 221° (SW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
18:43:00 14.233N 65.750W 696.8 mb 3,145 m 1004.3 mb From 221° (SW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 40 kts 0 mm/hr
18:43:30 14.233N 65.717W 696.7 mb 3,145 m 1004.1 mb From 220° (SW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
18:44:00 14.233N 65.683W 696.8 mb 3,148 m 1003.8 mb From 219° (SW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 38 kts 0 mm/hr
18:44:30 14.233N 65.650W 696.8 mb 3,148 m 1003.8 mb From 218° (SW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 38 kts 0 mm/hr
18:45:00 14.233N 65.617W 697.3 mb 3,140 m 1003.4 mb From 211° (SSW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
18:45:30 14.233N 65.583W 696.8 mb 3,145 m 1003.2 mb From 214° (SW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
18:46:00 14.233N 65.550W 696.7 mb 3,148 m 1003.2 mb From 212° (SSW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
18:46:30 14.233N 65.500W 697.0 mb 3,144 m 1002.7 mb From 213° (SSW/SW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
18:47:00 14.233N 65.467W 696.7 mb 3,151 m 1002.6 mb From 213° (SSW/SW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
18:47:30 14.233N 65.433W 697.0 mb 3,144 m 1002.4 mb From 213° (SSW/SW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 37 kts 0 mm/hr
18:48:00 14.233N 65.400W 696.8 mb 3,148 m 1002.4 mb From 215° (SW) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
18:48:30 14.233N 65.367W 696.9 mb 3,146 m 1002.4 mb From 215° (SW) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
18:49:00 14.233N 65.333W 696.8 mb 3,148 m 1002.3 mb From 216° (SW) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
18:49:30 14.233N 65.300W 697.1 mb 3,142 m 1001.9 mb From 217° (SW) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
18:50:00 14.233N 65.267W 696.9 mb 3,140 m 1002.7 mb From 217° (SW) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
At 18:40:30Z (first observation), the observation was 290 miles (467 km) to the S (178°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 18:50:00Z (last observation), the observation was 294 miles (473 km) to the S (170°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

For those of you talking about the CMC model and its take on TD 16...So that's two runs 0Z and 12Z that catch this, and now I notice the HWRF, although fuzzy right now, also in my opinion takes this puppy into the Bay of Campeche and then fizzling out. Point being, now that's two models. And for all the anti-wishcastingers, I'm just making an observation. Solid anticyclonic flow aloft, wind shear >10kts, warm waters near to the coast, where water is shallower. If TD 16 can get across the Yucatan, and the high over the SE moves near or off the Atlantic side of FL, could hypothetically move into the Gulf, but still too early to tell. If I see another two runs that still suggest it, then I'll be worried.

Omar looks a little disfigured as drier air moves in from the northwest associated with that deep trof, I am curious as to how this impedes further strengthening, or how much it aleast slows it. Prayers are with you island folk!!
WOW busy week in the tropisc
304

yes this si very rare.
310. PR51
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Just watched the North Atlantic visible loop and it looks like Omar is rapidly moving in an easterly direction instead of NE. Does anybody else see that?

I agree
Say what you want.. but the Vortex reports have it east of track and out of the cone.



Click to enlarge
Will this huricane became a cat 2?
Let's see if this will work.


RECON"s last center fix is actually South of the "Official: Track!


Photobucket

314. MVA
Dear all,

This is my first post here. People are talking a lot about Omar, but I would like to hear some specific opinions about TD16.

I live in Tela, which is a city in Honduras more or less in between San Pedro Sula and La Ceiba (15.7° N 87.5° W) right on the north-coast. We have had rain since yesterday, sometimes quite heavy. Some roads are already quite inundated. Right now there seems to be a little break in the heavy rains. Still raining, but moderately. My garden is already a swimming pool though...

What are your expectations for rain in this location? How much rain will be dumped? When can we expect the most heavy rains? When will the rain stop? Will there be any storm surge (the sea is wild now but surely not extremely)? What are the chances of landfall around here and what would that do?

Lots of questions I would like to see some more info about. This mainly because I have a flight out of San Pedro Sula on friday around midday... So I will have to drive over there and am a little worried about the roads or conditions to drive... I guess I don't have to worry about airport being closed or so, that doesn't really happen with heavy rain or does it?

Anyone of you know Honduras and it's road-system a bit (specifically the north-coast)?

Thanks a bunch!

And good luck to you people in the islands where Omar is passing! Be safe!

M.
316. DDR
Quoting PR51:

I agree

count me in also
Quoting vortfix:
Photobucket


Yep. N of NE track from NHC... just look at the LAT/LON. For that to be called a NE track, the black line would have to cross 20 where the right side of the cone is. ;)
#308 and #309 Wow like nobody is going to put two and two together there.

Anyway how long is the trough suppose to be digging down?
yes the cmc model run is intesrting, hope it is true
There has been a correction to the 2:00PM (9A) Bulletin. Does this change anything?

Sorry for my ignorance.
Quoting Seastep:


Yep. N of NE track from NHC... just look at the LAT/LON. For that to be called a NE track, the black line would have to cross 20 where the right side of the cone is. ;)



Please see post #313

The 2PM ADVISORY DIDN'T CHANGE AT THE 11 A.M
rho link to the correction?
After reading the last 40 post others see the movement to the East. That trough to the W and NW is pushing down hard on Omar.
Quoting champagnedrmz:
#308 and #309 Wow like nobody is going to put two and two together there.


lol I was about to say something but opted not to
I think omar will make it to a cat 2
MVA....good luck and please take care:


THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

325

you better not lol

just here to contribute to this blog
never mind I just read it they corrected the Lat to 15.5
Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 18:59Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 15

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
18:50:30 14.233N 65.233W 696.9 mb 3,148 m 1003.1 mb From 216° (SW) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 39 kts* 0 mm/hr*
18:51:00 14.267N 65.200W 696.3 mb 3,158 m 1003.5 mb From 213° (SSW/SW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) - -
18:51:30 14.300N 65.217W 696.9 mb 3,145 m 1003.3 mb From 214° (SW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 37 kts* 0 mm/hr*
18:52:00 14.317N 65.233W 696.5 mb 3,149 m 1002.3 mb From 217° (SW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 40 kts 0 mm/hr
18:52:30 14.333N 65.267W 696.7 mb 3,143 m 1002.0 mb From 217° (SW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 40 kts 0 mm/hr
18:53:00 14.350N 65.283W 696.7 mb 3,145 m 1002.3 mb From 217° (SW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 40 kts 0 mm/hr
18:53:30 14.367N 65.300W 696.9 mb 3,142 m 1002.3 mb From 215° (SW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
18:54:00 14.400N 65.317W 696.9 mb 3,142 m 1002.3 mb From 214° (SW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
18:54:30 14.417N 65.350W 696.7 mb 3,145 m 1002.1 mb From 211° (SSW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
18:55:00 14.433N 65.367W 696.7 mb 3,143 m 1002.5 mb From 212° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
18:55:30 14.467N 65.383W 696.8 mb 3,141 m 1002.9 mb From 219° (SW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
18:56:00 14.483N 65.417W 696.9 mb 3,139 m 1002.8 mb From 216° (SW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
18:56:30 14.500N 65.433W 697.1 mb 3,138 m 1003.0 mb From 211° (SSW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
18:57:00 14.517N 65.450W 696.5 mb 3,141 m 1003.2 mb From 213° (SSW/SW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 38 kts 2 mm/hr
18:57:30 14.550N 65.483W 697.1 mb 3,133 m 1003.2 mb From 218° (SW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 40 kts 0 mm/hr
18:58:00 14.567N 65.500W 696.5 mb 3,140 m 1003.1 mb From 218° (SW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
18:58:30 14.583N 65.517W 697.1 mb 3,132 m 1003.1 mb From 219° (SW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 39 kts 0 mm/hr
18:59:00 14.617N 65.550W 696.7 mb 3,137 m 1003.4 mb From 215° (SW) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
18:59:30 14.633N 65.567W 696.9 mb 3,132 m 1003.5 mb From 211° (SSW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
19:00:00 14.650N 65.583W 696.8 mb 3,134 m 1003.8 mb From 212° (SSW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
At 18:50:30Z (first observation), the observation was 294 miles (473 km) to the S (169°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 19:00:00Z (last observation), the observation was 262 miles (422 km) to the S (173°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Quoting Bonedog:
rho link to the correction?


Well... I do not know how to post a link for the Correction, but here is the copy/paste:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 151816
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
200 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008

CORRECTED POSITION LATITUDE IN MAIN BODY AND REPEAT SECTION

...OMAR GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PUERTO RICO.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 200 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE.

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...310
KM...SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330 KM...SOUTH OF
SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER
TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR
SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF
64 MPH...104 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20
INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...
OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-
AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE
TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...66.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Quoting vortfix:



Please see post #313



I'm with you vortfix. I think it is a NE track overall, just a stair-stepping one. I think it will end up being E of NHC current track because it seems to move faster when going ENE than when it is going NNE.

Been watching the radar loop all day and it moves NNE for a tad, then ENE for a tad, then NNE, etc.

Was just pointing out that the official NHC track is N of NE. :)
I just looked at the satellite loop of Omar and saw it has lost its eye and could it be weakening??
Hmm this is not a good advertisement for a Vacation down there




Click to enlarge
Quoting cycloone:
I just looked at the satellite loop of Omar and saw it has lost its eye and could it be weakening??


Eye's there on radar, just not very symmetrical right now.

Link

333

it will become a cat 2. I know it will. the environment supports that
336

it is becoming symmetrical. the people in these islands better get ready
cycloone could just be a EWRC.

Dont think this storm is threw yet.
Quoting cycloone:
I just looked at the satellite loop of Omar and saw it has lost its eye and could it be weakening??


And remember that sat is at least an hour behind.
hey who thinks that td 16 could be impact the U.S?
342. Relix
Omar is definitely gonna miss PR with the relocalization now. Plus it's moving ENE. So yeah, good luck to those in the islands. I am just gonna take a break and feel secure for now while I look at the marvelous clouds and feel the winds from Omar.
Quoting Bonedog:
cycloone could just be a EWRC.

Dont think this storm is threw yet.
yeah that's probably what's going on, a new eye should take shape soon
Best case scenario:

Omar "How do I get to the Atlantic?"

Me: "Go due East at 16 til you get to 64. Then take a left and go due North til you get to 18. Take a slight right and you're on your way."

:)
345. IKE
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
hey who thinks that td 16 could be impact the U.S?


I think TD16 is headed toward being history. No threat to the US.
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
hey who thinks that td 16 could be impact the U.S?


A few models are saying something might get going next week, but I wouldn't put any $$ on it yet
it's moving ENE. So yeah, good luck to those in the islands. I am just gonna take a break and feel secure for now while I look at the marvelous clouds and feel the winds from Omar.
OMAR moving ENE due to his increasing motion.
IKE

the cmc is pretty consistent though. I tihnk it is worth watching at least
346

yea it is best to watch it for now
LOL 342 and 347 this is getting funny now
998.6 mb
55 knots
(~ 63.2 mph)




Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 19:09Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 16

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
19:00:30 14.667N 65.617W 696.9 mb 3,129 m 1003.7 mb From 214° (SW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 41 kts 0 mm/hr
19:01:00 14.700N 65.633W 696.7 mb 3,131 m 1003.5 mb From 212° (SSW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 42 kts 0 mm/hr
19:01:30 14.717N 65.650W 696.9 mb 3,124 m 1003.2 mb From 211° (SSW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 42 kts 3 mm/hr
19:02:00 14.733N 65.667W 696.7 mb 3,127 m 1002.5 mb From 210° (SSW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 43 kts 4 mm/hr
19:02:30 14.767N 65.700W 696.8 mb 3,122 m 1002.8 mb From 210° (SSW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 43 kts 3 mm/hr
19:03:00 14.783N 65.717W 697.1 mb 3,119 m 1003.4 mb From 211° (SSW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 44 kts 4 mm/hr
19:03:30 14.800N 65.733W 696.2 mb 3,128 m 1002.1 mb From 216° (SW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 44 kts 2 mm/hr
19:04:00 14.817N 65.767W 697.3 mb 3,116 m 1002.5 mb From 215° (SW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 44 kts 2 mm/hr
19:04:30 14.850N 65.783W 697.0 mb 3,117 m 1002.5 mb From 223° (SW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 44 kts 2 mm/hr
19:05:00 14.867N 65.800W 696.8 mb 3,115 m 1001.8 mb From 221° (SW) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 47 kts 0 mm/hr
19:05:30 14.883N 65.833W 696.7 mb 3,117 m 1001.7 mb From 225° (SW) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 47 kts 0 mm/hr
19:06:00 14.900N 65.850W 696.8 mb 3,112 m 1001.4 mb From 224° (SW) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 49 kts 1 mm/hr
19:06:30 14.933N 65.867W 696.8 mb 3,112 m 1001.5 mb From 227° (SW) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 49 kts 1 mm/hr
19:07:00 14.950N 65.883W 696.7 mb 3,112 m 1001.0 mb From 226° (SW) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 52 kts 2 mm/hr
19:07:30 14.967N 65.917W 696.8 mb 3,106 m 1002.7 mb From 227° (SW) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 50 kts 8 mm/hr
19:08:00 14.983N 65.933W 698.4 mb 3,086 m 1002.7 mb From 231° (SW) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 53 kts 13 mm/hr
19:08:30 15.000N 65.950W 697.5 mb 3,092 m 1002.9 mb From 233° (SW) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 53 kts 15 mm/hr
19:09:00 15.033N 65.967W 697.2 mb 3,096 m 999.5 mb From 234° (SW) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 55 kts 11 mm/hr
19:09:30 15.050N 65.983W 696.5 mb 3,104 m 998.6 mb From 236° (SW/WSW) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 50 kts 6 mm/hr
19:10:00 15.067N 66.000W 696.9 mb 3,093 m 998.8 mb From 237° (WSW) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 49 kts 6 mm/hr
At 19:00:30Z (first observation), the observation was 261 miles (419 km) to the S (174°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 19:10:00Z (last observation), the observation was 231 miles (372 km) to the S (179°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Quoting vortfix:
Let's see if this will work.


RECON"s last center fix is actually South of the "Official: Track!


Photobucket



that about sumsit up....
EWRC??

I'll have to doubt that since Omar has not yet defined his first eyewall.
355. Relix
Quoting Bonedog:
LOL 342 and 347 this is getting funny now


I am too nervous and wanna feel "secure". I like to see them develop and get close to me but I prefer when they poof or just disappear XD. Cloudy here and gusty in Levittown PR
Quoting champagnedrmz:
#308 and #309 Wow like nobody is going to put two and two together there.

Anyway how long is the trough suppose to be digging down?


lol
Quoting Bonedog:
LOL 342 and 347 this is getting funny now


lol yup.. Those 2 posts just caused someone to be put on ignore lol
a new eye should sruley take shapes soon
Quoting Clickerous:


lol yup.. Those 2 posts just caused someone to be put on ignore lol
And quickly! LOL
on the water vapour pic you can see how close Omar was from getting onto the high side...would have been potentially deadly for the western Caribbean again....
vort the eyewall has been on radar all day from PR
You should be OK there Relix.
Go get some of that fresh air!
Notice how the extent of heavy convection with Omar has shrunk and the tops warmed since daylight.
It has never closed off that I ever saw Bone.
Anyway...in my experience it's too early in the life cycle for an EWRC.
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
hey who thinks that td 16 could be impact the U.S?



finish your milk....
no EWRC for omar yet, it's too weak
could be right vort. was just an opinion I had of Omar. More of a gut feeling then anything.
The GEM GLB 00Z ,shows TD16 hitting the west coast of Florida next week as a Hurricane,very interesting,and also the GFDL & other models start hintting of a more North track for TD16.
LINK:

I mentioned this earlier before the new blog, about the Canadian model. Looking at 12Z readings, the ULL over the Mexican Plateau may have enough tug to pinwheel TD 16 northward, and the ridge over the SE right now is holding strong, and depending on the timing of it sinking south and how far east or west it shifts, it could also grab what might then be Paloma. Still a long ways off, several days from now. Just have to wait and see if other models suggest this over the next 24-48 hours, or maybe by then it will just be a memory of the CMC. Anyways, the high over the SE makes for beautiful weather!!
979.9 mb
74 knots
(~ 85.1 mph)



Making another pass:


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 19:19Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 17

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
19:10:30 15.083N 66.033W 697.0 mb 3,093 m 999.1 mb From 236° (SW/WSW) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 49 kts 5 mm/hr
19:11:00 15.100N 66.050W 697.3 mb 3,084 m 999.1 mb From 235° (SW) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 50 kts 6 mm/hr
19:11:30 15.117N 66.067W 696.5 mb 3,094 m 1000.0 mb From 234° (SW) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 50 kts 4 mm/hr
19:12:00 15.133N 66.083W 697.3 mb 3,081 m 999.1 mb From 238° (WSW) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 51 kts 3 mm/hr
19:12:30 15.150N 66.100W 697.3 mb 3,075 m 998.8 mb From 238° (WSW) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 51 kts* 5 mm/hr*
19:13:00 15.183N 66.117W 695.8 mb 3,086 m 999.2 mb From 228° (SW) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 55 kts 16 mm/hr
19:13:30 15.200N 66.133W 699.8 mb 3,036 m 998.7 mb From 231° (SW) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 56 kts 21 mm/hr
19:14:00 15.233N 66.150W 695.6 mb 3,082 m 997.0 mb From 234° (SW) at 72 kts (82.8 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 56 kts 9 mm/hr
19:14:30 15.250N 66.167W 697.1 mb 3,056 m 997.7 mb From 235° (SW) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 55 kts 6 mm/hr
19:15:00 15.267N 66.183W 697.0 mb 3,056 m 997.2 mb From 241° (WSW) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 77 kts (~ 88.5 mph) 56 kts 9 mm/hr
19:15:30 15.300N 66.200W 697.1 mb 3,039 m 996.7 mb From 245° (WSW) at 77 kts (88.5 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 59 kts 11 mm/hr
19:16:00 15.317N 66.217W 696.6 mb 3,039 m 994.7 mb From 245° (WSW) at 80 kts (92.0 mph) 82 kts (~ 94.3 mph) 64 kts 14 mm/hr
19:16:30 15.333N 66.233W 696.5 mb 3,045 m 993.3 mb From 260° (W) at 74 kts (85.1 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) 64 kts* 10 mm/hr*
19:17:00 15.367N 66.233W 696.8 mb 3,033 m 991.5 mb From 264° (W) at 76 kts (87.4 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 68 kts* 4 mm/hr*
19:17:30 15.383N 66.250W 696.9 mb 3,022 m 987.9 mb From 266° (W) at 79 kts (90.8 mph) 80 kts (~ 92.0 mph) 69 kts 0 mm/hr
19:18:00 15.417N 66.250W 695.8 mb 3,022 m 987.6 mb From 266° (W) at 79 kts (90.8 mph) 83 kts (~ 95.4 mph) 70 kts 0 mm/hr
19:18:30 15.433N 66.250W 697.1 mb 2,993 m 985.8 mb From 263° (W) at 85 kts (97.7 mph) 86 kts (~ 98.9 mph) 68 kts 0 mm/hr
19:19:00 15.467N 66.250W 696.7 mb 2,988 m 984.8 mb From 262° (W) at 88 kts (101.2 mph) 89 kts (~ 102.3 mph) 74 kts 0 mm/hr
19:19:30 15.500N 66.267W 696.4 mb 2,976 m 982.3 mb From 264° (W) at 82 kts (94.3 mph) 83 kts (~ 95.4 mph) 74 kts 0 mm/hr
19:20:00 15.517N 66.267W 696.8 mb 2,961 m 979.9 mb From 267° (W) at 80 kts (92.0 mph) 83 kts (~ 95.4 mph) 72 kts* 0 mm/hr*
At 19:10:30Z (first observation), the observation was 230 miles (371 km) to the S (180°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 19:20:00Z (last observation), the observation was 201 miles (323 km) to the S (184°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Quoting Bonedog:
cycloone could just be a EWRC.

Dont think this storm is threw yet.


Way, WAY to early for an EWRC, not even Wilma had an EWRC at this point. Way to early.
It may go south of St. Croix.

Puerto Rico should be spared. It's almost due south of San Juan now.
370. If thats right, Omar's a Category 2 hurricane.
the models are starting to trend towards the right on TD16 since the current High is not expected to have a strong western extend as previously though... but we shall see on these upcoming 12Z packages how things play out.
so it might be weakening a little, for now at least
377. IKE
Omar is accelerating....may be a nice day tomorrow in Puerto Rico.
370. If thats right, Omar's a Category 2 hurricane.


Nah....that's just an HDOB....gotta wait for the VDM!

376

YES IT IS WEAKENING, btu will intensify agian
The GFDL takes td 16 into the Epac and then NNE back into Mexico. It would be incredable if it redeveloped in the EPac and even more so if it re enters the atlantic basin.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
370. If thats right, Omar's a Category 2 hurricane.


85mph is still Cat 1.

Quoting cycloone:
so it might be weakening a little, for now at least
An experienced meteorologist would defiantly know
I want something to hit florida

all we had is fay

PR is lucky this season
384. IKE
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
I want something to hit florida

all we had is fay

PR is lucky this season


Well...sorry, Florida isn't getting anything anytime soon.
384

I think so too.... =(
15/1745 UTC 15.6N 66.5W T4.5/4.5 OMAR -- Atlantic Ocean
15/1745 UTC 15.7N 85.0W OVERLAND 16L -- Atlantic Ocean
15/1430 UTC 18.6N 105.3E OVERLAND 22W -- West Pacific Ocean
15/1145 UTC 18.9N 43.7W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
I want something to hit florida

all we had is fay

PR is lucky this season

eddye???
388. IKE
:))))))))
that is why I am hoping that high weakens, to allow td16 to move north, and maybe get picked by a trough and BAM!
390. IKE
Quoting hurricanealley:

eddye???


You're probably right. I had eddye on ignore. This SN's writing is the same.
URNT12 KNHC 151754
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL152008
A. 15/17:35:50Z
B. 15 deg 29 min N
066 deg 38 min W
C. 700 mb 2905 m
D. 61 kt
E. 002 deg 10 nm
F. 138 deg 063 kt
G. 029 deg 026 nm
H. EXTRAP 978 mb
I. 11 C/ 3047 m
J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 6 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 0415A OMAR OB 03
MAX FL OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 87 KT SW QUAD 17:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
EYEWALL POORLY DEFINED
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
I want something to hit florida

all we had is fay

PR is lucky this season


All we had is Fay?!?!? Two of my co-workers lost their house completely in flooding. I had a busted out windshield in my Murano from falling tree debris, and my parents couldn't get to their house for 3 weeks due to flooding and were running off a generator for 3 days after they got back in. That's enough for me, thanks!
393. IKE
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
that is why I am hoping that high weakens, to allow td16 to move north, and maybe get picked by a trough and BAM!


Sorry...go mow the yard....it'll get some of the desire taken out of you.
387

I am not eddye

I just want something to hit florida just like he does

many people here are like us. they just dont want to admit it >_<
Quoting hurricanealley:

eddye???


Either KWM or Tropicalamanda. So many to choose from. So does anyone know the answer to my question?

How long is that trough suppose to dig down?
396. IKE
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
387

I am not eddye

I just want something to hit florida just like he does

many people here are like us. they just dont want to admit it >_<


How do you know it's a he?
392

I know how you feel

my mom's garden got messed by fay's 40 MPH winds
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
that is why I am hoping that high weakens, to allow td16 to move north, and maybe get picked by a trough and BAM!
wishcaster for death and destruction like Fay wasn't enough
968.8 mb
78 knots
(~ 89.7 mph)


Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 19:29Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 18

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
19:20:30 15.550N 66.267W 695.2 mb 2,962 m 975.1 mb From 260° (W) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 69 kts 0 mm/hr
19:21:00 15.583N 66.267W 698.3 mb 2,913 m 971.5 mb From 255° (WSW) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 59 kts 1 mm/hr
19:21:30 15.600N 66.283W 695.7 mb 2,935 m 969.9 mb From 258° (WSW/W) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 42 kts 0 mm/hr
19:22:00 15.633N 66.283W 697.6 mb 2,912 m 969.4 mb From 262° (W) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) 35 kts 0 mm/hr
19:22:30 15.667N 66.283W 696.6 mb 2,922 m 969.0 mb From 272° (W) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 28 kts* 0 mm/hr*
19:23:00 15.700N 66.283W 696.3 mb 2,923 m 968.8 mb From 268° (W) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
19:23:30 15.733N 66.283W 696.3 mb 2,924 m 970.0 mb From 280° (W) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 29 kts* 0 mm/hr*
19:24:00 15.750N 66.283W 696.6 mb 2,919 m 971.1 mb From 295° (WNW) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) 26 kts* 0 mm/hr*
19:24:30 15.783N 66.283W 697.7 mb 2,903 m 971.5 mb From 80° (E) at 1 kts (1.1 mph) 3 kts (~ 3.4 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
19:25:00 15.817N 66.267W 696.6 mb 2,922 m 972.8 mb From 88° (E) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) 30 kts 0 mm/hr
19:25:30 15.833N 66.267W 696.7 mb 2,925 m 973.1 mb From 96° (E) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 44 kts* 0 mm/hr*
19:26:00 15.867N 66.267W 696.1 mb 2,937 m 973.8 mb From 97° (E) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 53 kts* 5 mm/hr*
19:26:30 15.900N 66.300W 697.3 mb 2,930 m 976.2 mb From 92° (E) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 73 kts 8 mm/hr
19:27:00 15.917N 66.317W 697.2 mb 2,943 m 978.1 mb From 76° (ENE) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 81 kts 14 mm/hr
19:27:30 15.933N 66.333W 697.5 mb 2,961 m 985.2 mb From 66° (ENE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 75 kts 28 mm/hr
19:28:00 15.950N 66.367W 696.4 mb 2,998 m 986.7 mb From 58° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 71 kts 28 mm/hr
19:28:30 15.983N 66.383W 696.7 mb 3,011 m 987.0 mb From 53° (NE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 60 kts 7 mm/hr
19:29:00 16.000N 66.417W 696.9 mb 3,024 m 989.2 mb From 55° (NE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 57 kts 0 mm/hr
19:29:30 16.017N 66.433W 696.6 mb 3,042 m 990.4 mb From 53° (NE) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 57 kts 1 mm/hr
19:30:00 16.033N 66.450W 696.9 mb 3,044 m 991.4 mb From 48° (NE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 54 kts 0 mm/hr
At 19:20:30Z (first observation), the observation was 198 miles (319 km) to the S (184°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 19:30:00Z (last observation), the observation was 167 miles (268 km) to the S (189°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

deleted


Vortex fix sure looked accurate
Quoting IKE:


You're probably right. I had eddye on ignore. This SN's writing is the same.


It sounds familiar to me too, but for another reason; remember Tropical Amanda?

Banned
This blog has been banned by WunderBlogAdmin.
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
392

I know how you feel

my mom's garden got messed by fay's 40 MPH winds


messed?


like yo diaper?
398

I hate the death and destruction. I just like it during a hurricane, not afta
405. IKE
Quoting MichaelSTL:


It sounds familiar to me too; remember Tropical Amanda?

Banned
This blog has been banned by WunderBlogAdmin.


Yeah...I remember.
Quoting Orcasystems:
deleted


Orca how do you post an image from google earth?
Quoting champagnedrmz:


Either KWM or Tropicalamanda. So many to choose from. So does anyone know the answer to my question?

How long is that trough suppose to dig down?


Doc said a few blogs back that it could reach all the way down to S. America, but I don't see that happening at this point. Actually just starting to look like it's pretty much bottomed out looking at WV.
IGNORE
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
398

I hate the death and destruction. I just like it during a hurricane, not afta


wind simulators are fun

could omar more northern mean it could start turning to the west
Quoting hurricanealley:


wind simulators are fun
i like wind simulators not hurricanes
Quoting pottery:
IGNORE
Who ??
408

please don't ignore me
968.8 mb
81 knots
(~ 93.1 mph)




Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 19:29Z
Date: October 15, 2008
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 15
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 18

Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
19:20:30 15.550N 66.267W 695.2 mb 2,962 m 975.1 mb From 260° (W) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 69 kts 0 mm/hr
19:21:00 15.583N 66.267W 698.3 mb 2,913 m 971.5 mb From 255° (WSW) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 59 kts 1 mm/hr
19:21:30 15.600N 66.283W 695.7 mb 2,935 m 969.9 mb From 258° (WSW/W) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 42 kts 0 mm/hr
19:22:00 15.633N 66.283W 697.6 mb 2,912 m 969.4 mb From 262° (W) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) 35 kts 0 mm/hr
19:22:30 15.667N 66.283W 696.6 mb 2,922 m 969.0 mb From 272° (W) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 28 kts* 0 mm/hr*
19:23:00 15.700N 66.283W 696.3 mb 2,923 m 968.8 mb From 268° (W) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 29 kts 0 mm/hr
19:23:30 15.733N 66.283W 696.3 mb 2,924 m 970.0 mb From 280° (W) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 29 kts* 0 mm/hr*
19:24:00 15.750N 66.283W 696.6 mb 2,919 m 971.1 mb From 295° (WNW) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 10 kts (~ 11.5 mph) 26 kts* 0 mm/hr*
19:24:30 15.783N 66.283W 697.7 mb 2,903 m 971.5 mb From 80° (E) at 1 kts (1.1 mph) 3 kts (~ 3.4 mph) 28 kts 0 mm/hr
19:25:00 15.817N 66.267W 696.6 mb 2,922 m 972.8 mb From 88° (E) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) 30 kts 0 mm/hr
19:25:30 15.833N 66.267W 696.7 mb 2,925 m 973.1 mb From 96° (E) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 44 kts* 0 mm/hr*
19:26:00 15.867N 66.267W 696.1 mb 2,937 m 973.8 mb From 97° (E) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 53 kts* 5 mm/hr*
19:26:30 15.900N 66.300W 697.3 mb 2,930 m 976.2 mb From 92° (E) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 73 kts 8 mm/hr
19:27:00 15.917N 66.317W 697.2 mb 2,943 m 978.1 mb From 76° (ENE) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 81 kts 14 mm/hr
19:27:30 15.933N 66.333W 697.5 mb 2,961 m 985.2 mb From 66° (ENE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 75 kts 28 mm/hr
19:28:00 15.950N 66.367W 696.4 mb 2,998 m 986.7 mb From 58° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 71 kts 28 mm/hr
19:28:30 15.983N 66.383W 696.7 mb 3,011 m 987.0 mb From 53° (NE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 60 kts 7 mm/hr
19:29:00 16.000N 66.417W 696.9 mb 3,024 m 989.2 mb From 55° (NE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 57 kts 0 mm/hr
19:29:30 16.017N 66.433W 696.6 mb 3,042 m 990.4 mb From 53° (NE) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 57 kts 1 mm/hr
19:30:00 16.033N 66.450W 696.9 mb 3,044 m 991.4 mb From 48° (NE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 54 kts 0 mm/hr
At 19:20:30Z (first observation), the observation was 198 miles (319 km) to the S (184°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 19:30:00Z (last observation), the observation was 167 miles (268 km) to the S (189°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

415. IKE
968.8 mb
(~ 28.61 inHg)


Intensifying, but looks weaker on IR ....stretching out...dry-air getting into it too......

416. PR51
OMAR is a closed chapter for Puerto Rico. Let's see the 2009 season, but for this one, I think is over for Puerto Rico. Despite everyting this Island is blessed, because there is always a strange movements in tropical systems that affect the trajectories. Well I pray for those who doesn't have the same luck.
Quoting Seastep:


Doc said a few blogs back that it could reach all the way down to S. America, but I don't see that happening at this point. Actually just starting to look like it's pretty much bottomed out looking at WV.


Thank you. Is there a link that we can go to see a forecast of that?
411

I just can't understand this. tell me, what is not fun being inside a hurricane?

I personally hate the aftermath and destruction. But being inside one is worth it. aand I am NOT A WISHCASTER


Omar at peak
deleted
Upgraded from tropical storm warning now to hurricane watch... guess it's time to stock up on some supplies. :S
That pressure reading was in an intense thunderstorm Ike...could be suspect!
419

oooh I am putting this bad boy as my wall paper
424. IKE
Quoting PR51:
OMAR is a closed chapter for Puerto Rico. Let's see the 2009 season, but for this one, I think is over for Puerto Rico. Despite everyting this Island is blessed, because there is always a strange movements in tropical systems that affect the trajectories. Well I pray for those who doesn't have the same luck.


I agree PR is safe from Omar...appears to be moving ENE.
I think the 2009 season will be big, but I hope not
426. KBH
In Barbados, weather been generally overcast, even hot sunshine, till 10 minutes ago. Feeder bands coming from the SSW with TS activity that possibly cause some flooding
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 19:40Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2008
Storm Name: Omar (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 19:24:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°47'N 66°17'W (15.7833N 66.2833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 182 miles (294 km) to the S (185°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,877m (9,439ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the S (177°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 263° at 89kts (From the W at ~ 102.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the S (177°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 973mb (28.73 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the south quadrant at 19:19:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the S (185°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
NEW INNER EYEWALL DEVELOPMENT ON RADAR
Quoting IKE:


How do you know it's a he?
Fits the profile. Definetly a "he". Notice the fantasy avatar.
Hi all,
I'm sitting in Benners Bay on St. Thomas. Back in the mangroves on my boat. This will be the fourth hurricane I have ridden out here. Thought I would post some weather observations as Omar approuches.
Wind picking up out of th SE around 10 knts. (it has been dead calm). Light rain. Baramoter steady at 1012mb. time 3:45 AST

Cheers,
Gary
RECON just passed near the COC and it is 30 miles NE of where it was located at the last pass which was 1 hour 49 minutes ago. Looks like the center is still moving NE
Looks like anotehr wave in the same area that td 16 formed.
425

more storm more fun more time here blogging with my friends =D
Dropsound in eye finds 84 knts near the surface

434. IKE
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
411

I just can't understand this. tell me, what is not fun being inside a hurricane?

I personally hate the aftermath and destruction. But being inside one is worth it. aand I am NOT A WISHCASTER


That's about what the definition is....wanting one to affect you...or to be in one....that makes you a wishcaster...
Still east of Track and cone
Good call Bone!
Please pass the hot sauce for my grilled CROW!!
The pressure is really dropping.

And the winds are going up. It may look worse on IR but the stats that matter says its getting stronger.
438. KBH
what is the word in PR and nearby islands to the north?
434

this sucks, I am disappointed. I found this blog a couple days ago, and I thought you guys liked hurricanes.

I'll be leaving soon
Quoting Cotillion:
The pressure is really dropping.

And the winds are going up. It may look worse on IR but the stats that matter says its getting stronger.


what I see on IR is a consolidating system getting smaller = faster intensification
441. KBH
good luck to you Gary, this one maybe different coming from the west
Eye Character: Open in the southwest
439

Found this blog a couple days ago but your a fan of Tropicalamanda. Think of a better lie next time really.

Orca could you please email me how you get an image to paste on here from google earth. TIA
444. IKE
8-14 day temperature outlook for the USA...

Quoting champagnedrmz:
439

Found this blog a couple days ago but your a fan of Tropicalamanda. Think of a better lie next time really.


BUSTED!!! ;-)
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
434

this sucks, I am disappointed. I found this blog a couple days ago, and I thought you guys liked hurricanes.

I'll be leaving soon


If you found this blog a couple of days ago, how have you heard of TropicalAmanda? You can't even lie well.
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
425

more storm more fun more time here blogging with my friends =D


So far bubba sparx here has used the words bad boy, afta, and messed. I'm impressed someone of your age could perfect the English language like you have.
449. IKE
Omar almost due south of San Juan north.....
Can I ask...2 of the long range models are predicting one to come to FL next week. I am assuming (as I'm a novice) that another one will form? Or will it be TD 16?
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
443

FINE FINE FINE!!!!!!!!!
YALL WANT DA TRUTH I MA EDDYE OOOKE I AM EDDYE AND I AM SICK OF YOU WALL IGNORING ME. I QUIT THIS BLOG

BAN ME IF YOU WANT ADMINS

BYE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There is someone on here named Eddye? Sorry never heard of them.
454. Relix
So after all is said and done, how does Omar look for PR? I went around to play some games and haven't paid attention so... can anyone give me a quick summary of the past hour?
So after all is said and done, how does Omar look for PR? I went around to play some games and haven't paid attention so... can anyone give me a quick summary of the past hour?
456. KBH
just noticed a blob down south. Is that heading to south america or uturn up the island chain?
453
I bet Amanda is proud of you
Does anyone know the variables that will be determining this? fronts, etc...
453, your not funny. Enough said...
460

THE IDIOTS WHO QUOTED ME ARE NOT FUNNY

IT IS BECAUSE OF THEM YOU ARE SEEING MY POSTS
Quoting TexInsAgent:
453
I bet Amanda is proud of you


There's noboby really named Amanda. It turned out to be a man.
Tired of getting busted all the time. Its not our fault your so bad at acting.
465. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Does anyone know the variables that will be determining this? fronts, etc...


Yup...wind patterns this time of year always focuses activity in the Carribean. TD 16 will either fall apart or head to the Pacific. Some of the energy & moisture is shown breaking away from TD 16 to potentiall form another low in the Carribean. It is this low that the models a pickingup on, and bringing it toward the gulf.
Yea, judging by Recon reports we should see atleast a 90 MPH CAT 1 at 5 PM, maybe even A category 2.
PR is out of woods as far as a direct impact and I'm beginning to question the US VI's as well. Looks like Omar is moving too far east. Steering currents are going to be increasing this evening and certainly tomorrow, and we will see a definitive NNE-NE movement, but as of now the northern Antilles look to be at greatest risk.
Quoting weatherblog:


There's noboby really named Amanda. It turned out to be a man.


LOL thats is funny
Quoting fmbill:


Yup...wind patterns this time of year always focuses activity in the Carribean. TD 16 will either fall apart or head to the Pacific. Some of the energy & moisture is shown breaking away from TD 16 to potentiall form another low in the Carribean. It is this low that the models a pickingup on, and bringing it toward the gulf.


I'm not sure ...that was what I was asking everyone...

I previewed 2 links : the cmc and someone else posted one I'm not sure the name but it said GEM something and both had one coming to central FL. I was wondering if it was indeed TD 16 or another one and what variable will be pushing or pulling it this way. The models did show some "wobble" in them.

Thank you for answering me :)
DOW -740, or 8%
Refreshed
Still east of track and cone
Virtual buoy at 18.0 65.5 is showing ESE winds 30-41Kt this evening shifting to ENE 37-51 Kt then tapering off tommorow morning WNW 26-35.

Looks good considering what could have been.
fingers crossed.
474. MVA
What happened to TD16? When I look at satellite imagery it looks as the worst rains have already passed me, being in Tela, between San Pedro Sula and La Ceiba... That's WAY west of where the center of TD16 suposedly is.

Is this a correct observation or should I look at some different data that I'm not aware off (which is very much possible :-))?

Can some people look into that and give me some info about what still to expect at center-west of northcoast Honduras?

Would be very helpfull for me.

Thanks!

M.
Quoting Tropicalamandafan:
434

this sucks, I am disappointed. I found this blog a couple days ago, and I thought you guys liked hurricanes.

I'll be leaving soon
busted if you found this blog a couple of days ago how can you be atropicalamanda skuz bag fan, I am sure there is a closet close by for you roflmao