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Violent tornado rampage in 11 states leaves 31 dead

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:40 PM GMT on March 03, 2012

A massive tornado outbreak of stunning violence swept through the nation's midsection yesterday, spawning deadly tornadoes that killed at least 31. Hardest hit were Kentucky and Southern Indiana, which suffered 13 and 14 dead, respectively. Three were killed in Ohio, and one in Alabama. The scale of the outbreak was truly exceptional, with a preliminary total of 81 tornadoes touching down in eleven states, from southern Ohio to southern Georgia. At one point, 31 separate tornado warnings were in effect during the outbreak. An area larger than Nebraska--81,000 square miles--received tornado warnings, and tornado watches were posted for 300,000 square miles--an area larger than Texas.


Figure 1. Satellite image of the massive storm that spawned yesterday's tornado outbreak, taken at 4:55 pm EST March 2, 2012. NASA has an impressive satellite animation of the storm. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Incredibly fast-moving storms
The speed with which some of the storms moved was truly exceptional, thanks to jet stream winds of up to 115 mph that pushed the thunderstorms forward at amazing speeds. A number of the tornadoes ripped through Kentucky with forward speeds of 70 mph, and two tornado warnings in Central Kentucky were issued for parent thunderstorms that moved at 85 mph. If damage surveys reveal that these thunderstorms did indeed spawn tornadoes, they will set the record for fastest-moving tornadoes in recorded history. The record for the fastest moving tornado is 73 mph, set in 1925 for the great Tri-State Tornado, the deadliest U.S. tornado of all-time. Here's the text from one of the tornado warnings yesterday, featuring a storm moving at 85 mph:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
439 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEXINGTON...
JESSAMINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
EASTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 515 PM EST...

* AT 434 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WILMORE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 85 MPH.


Video 1. Short video the violent tornado that devastated West Liberty, Kentucky.


Figure 2. Radar image of the West Liberty, Kentucky tornado of March 2, 2012, showing a classic hook echo. The tornado killed at least 3 people, and devastated the downtown area.

Second largest tornado outbreak so early in the year?
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 81 preliminary tornado reports from yesterday's outbreak as of noon today. These preliminary reports are typically over-counted by 15%, but more delayed reports will likely come in today, and the total number of tornadoes from the outbreak will probably be in the 80 to 90 range. This would put the March 2, 2012 in 2nd or 3rd place for the largest tornado outbreak so early in the year. The top five 2-day tornado outbreaks for so early in the year:

January 21 - 22, 1999: 129 tornadoes, 4 deaths
February 5 - 6, 2008: 87 tornadoes, 57 deaths
March 2, 2012: 81 tornadoes, 31 deaths
February 28 - March 1, 1997: 60 tornadoes, 10 deaths
January 7 - 8, 2008: 56 tornadoes, 4 deaths

Though the 36 tornadoes that occurred during the February 28 - 29 Leap Day outbreak were part of a separate storm system, the 5-day tornado total from February 28 - March 3, 2012 may eclipse the late January 1999 tornado outbreak as the most prolific 5-day period of tornado activity on record for so early in the year.


Figure 3. Damage from the Salyersville, Kentucky tornado of March 2, 2012. Damage characteristic of at least EF-3 intensity occurred. Image credit: Jon Pelton, via the NWS Jackson, KY.


Figure 4. Radar image of the Salyersville, Kentucky tornado of March 2, 2012, showing a classic hook echo of a tornado.

Slight risk of severe weather today over the Southeast U.S.
The storm system that spawned yesterday's severe weather has pushed northwards into Canada, but the trailing cold front is still spawning severe weather over Northern Florida, Southern Georgia, and surrounding states. Three tornadoes have touched down this morning in Southwest Georgia and northern Florida, causing damage but no reported injuries. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in their "Slight Risk" area for severe weather, two steps down from the "High Risk" forecast for Kentucky yesterday. SPC issues "High Risk" forecasts just 3 - 5 times per year, typically. Looking at the long range weather maps, I don't see any storm systems capable of causing major tornado outbreaks coming during the next 7 - 10 days. You can use our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow today's storms.


Figure 5. Team Rubicon at work during last year's tornado recovery efforts.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the tornado disaster
Portlight has a seasoned veteran from last year's tornado recovery efforts in Harrisburg, IL, and is looking for more people to volunteer their time. They are teaming with another disaster recovery charity, Team Rubicon, in the effort. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the un-served, under-served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome! My heartfelt sympathies and prayers go to all those affected by yesterday's destruction.

I'll be back Monday with much more information on the tornado outbreak.

Jeff Masters
Hail
Hail
Mostly quarter size
Warning Warning Warning!
Warning Warning Warning!
It has been an exciting night and is expected to get worse between 2-6 AM.
After the Storm
After the Storm
After a day of tornado warnings, supercells, hail and high winds... it was nice to see a rainbow.
Friday Mount Juliet Hail 3
Friday Mount Juliet Hail 3
Hail from storm moving through the Mount Juliet, TN area Friday afternoon.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Furthermore, we discuss a variety of efforts to improve the FNMOC suite of TC aids in 2012. First, the
dynamic core of the global atmospheric forecast system will be replaced by a semi-Lagrangian/semiimplicit
formulation developed by NRL. The new system is called the Navy Global Environmental Model
(NAVGEM). NAVGEM will enable higher-resolution implementations and will replace NOGAPS for all
applications.


From: FNMOC Collaborations in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Aids
It is in the abstract booklet for this week's Hurricane Conference.

Have not been able to find much info on NAVGEM as far as specific resolution etc, but would think it would be an improvement over NOGAPS.


GFDL will also have improvements on it's resolution of intensity and forecast tracks. Let's see how NAVGEM does.
Quoting aspectre:
460 TropicalAnalystwx13 "Velocities on both storms exceeded 200 knots."

If the radar measurements were that high, it was probably measuring upper level winds or transient "offshoots"/"satellites" of multivortex tornadoes which never touched the ground.
The FujitaScale was designed specificly to measure a tornado's surface impact, not as a measure of its overall strength. And as ScottLincoln pointed out above, the EnhancedFujitaScale was just a reworking of the FujitaScale to more accurately correlate the actual windspeeds to the amount of ground impact.

* "Offshoots"/"satellites" of multivortex tornadoes often(enough)have higher windspeeds than the main tornado, but tend to last seconds rather than minutes even when they do interact with the surface.

Another possibility is that the NWS has not conducted a search of the hardest hit areas, which seems to be rural with many trees. We shall see..

Quoting Chucktown:
Just had this video sent to our newsroom - shows a tornado caught on a security camera. Pretty amazing.

Link

I believe I've seen this video before....a long time ago.
Quoting Chucktown:
Just had this video sent to our newsroom - shows a tornado caught on a security camera. Pretty amazing.

Link


That tornado was from Springfield, MA last year.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Loks like the GFS wants to give North Carolina a hurricane on the 19th....



With it saying 1004mb & considering the shape there..looks like a Subtropical Storm at best.

Still think someone should pull together a when's the first 'cane blog early this year.

2011~ June 27th
2010~ June 24th
2009~ August 10th (Some of ya'll may have been bordering suicidal..)
2008~ May 31st

Not only are we way overdue for an early start...the last three winters were cold & this one was not.
The tornado that tore through Yorkville, GA ended up missing my old home by 1/2 mile to the north. My old house is in Johns Creek, GA, or just southeast of Alpharetta, GA.

So far with the tornado updates rolling in, the intensity findings have been staggering:

EF1 or Less:
18 tornadoes

EF2 or More:
26 tornadoes
  • Quoting WxGeekVA:
Loks like the GFS wants to give North Carolina a hurricane on the 19th....



an Andrea type of storm or Irene type of storm?

also notice this little glitch with that high 10323 something... just caught my eye
Quoting Hurricane1216:
So far with the tornado updates rolling in, the intensity findings have been staggering:

EF1 or Less:
18 tornadoes

EF2 or More:
26 tornadoes

Typical high risk day. More EF2> tornadoes than EF1< tornadoes.

Oh, and welcome to Jeff Master's blog! :)
Quoting Hurricane1216:
So far with the tornado updates rolling in, the intensity findings have been staggering:

EF1 or Less:
18 tornadoes

EF2 or More:
26 tornadoes

Yeah, that is usually more typical of a high risk day because the thermodynamics in the atmosphere favor stronger and larger tornadoes.

Welcome to the blog!

EDIT: Yeah, what Ameister12 said =)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


an Andrea type of storm or Irene type of storm?

also notice this little glitch with that high 10323 something... just caught my eye


It appears the GFS is warranting a moderate tropical storm with winds around the 50 mph range.
Is this abnormal? A low approaching southern CA from the SW in early March? Struck me as odd.

Link
http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/04/us/indiana-tornado- girl/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

I think news of this was posted already, but the article leaves me with a question...
Didn't early reports say that she was found 10 miles from home, implying that the tornado had caused that? Perhaps I read the first reports wrong. But now it seems like all the news I read indicates she was found in a field near a neighbor's home, which to me would imply not 10mi from home.
Quoting Skyepony:


With it saying 1004mb & considering the shape there..looks like a Subtropical Storm at best.

Still think someone should pull together a when's the first 'cane blog early this year.

2011~ June 27th
2010~ June 24th
2009~ August 10th (Some of ya'll may have been bordering suicidal..)
2008~ May 31st

Not only are we way overdue for an early start...the last three winters were cold & this one was not.


Overdue for an early start? How do you figure? The only late one I see there is 2009, and the one before that 2004. If anything the Atlantic is due for a season that at least waits until July to get going...
These storms certainly had some similarities.
Quoting Skyepony:


With it saying 1004mb & considering the shape there..looks like a Subtropical Storm at best.

Still think someone should pull together a when's the first 'cane blog early this year.

2011~ June 27th
2010~ June 24th
2009~ August 10th (Some of ya'll may have been bordering suicidal..)
2008~ May 31st

Not only are we way overdue for an early start...the last three winters were cold & this one was not.
The last part rhymed :).
Here is a pair of new videos. The first is the West Liberty tornado from downtown. A building blocks much of the view, but it's moving directly toward the camera, and the increasing noise is ominous:



This second is the same tornado, though obviously taken from a different location. As with most videos and images of the West Liberty twister, there's really no condensation funnel, the ground-level rotation being made visible only by dirt and debris:


.

I'm seeing a lot of similarities in the 1997 Austin outbreak and this Wed/Thurs.
The two Georgia tornadoes are officially classified as EF-1 in Cobb County and EF-3 in Haralson and Paulding Counties.
Well I'm off for tonight.Night all.
That poor little girl that was reported to be 10 miles from home in a field has died. So sad : she was reunited with her family in heaven.
Quoting Chucktown:


That tornado was from Springfield, MA last year.

I remember that one! The storm weakened shortly before it got to me but 30 mins to my west several towns were severely damaged.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I'm off for tonight.Night all.
G,nite 115.
One other thing is sure. This next low will be hangin around for a while.
According to NOAA, as of today, the tally of confirmed tornadoes from Friday is 42, with many still to go.

Alabama: 7
Georgia: 5
Indiana: 3
Kentucky: 8
Mississippi: 1
North Carolina: 2
Ohio: 5
Tennessee: 8
Virginia: 1
West Virginia: 2
Quoting tampahurricane:
That poor little girl that was reported to be 10 miles from home in a field has died. So sad : she was reunited with her family in heaven.
Turned out to be 150 yards, not ten miles. The whole family of 5 was killed.
Forgive me if this has been posted already. I really feel for these people. If you've ever been through a major disaster once you know how disheartening and absolutely exhausting the process of recovery can be. We first came to the same conclusion as the man in the story in our motel room while Ike was raging. We lose everything again that's it. We got lucky that time with the trees falling away from the house. That was after a three year four storm time span. But twice in 10 months I can't imagine. I wish them all the strength they need and sincerely hope no more disasters come their way for a long time.

Twister slams same area hit by killer storm in '11 Link

HARVEST, Ala. (AP) — Cody Stewart is done owning a home for a little while. He has lost his house to tornadoes twice in 10 months.

A killer twister wiped out his neighborhood in the epic Alabama storms April 27, causing Stewart $40,000 worth of damage that forced him to temporarily move in with his parents. In his house for less than two months with repairs still incomplete, another tornado hit again Friday, ripping off the roof, slinging it into the backyard and leaving the walls bowed outward.

This time, the damage is beyond repair.

"I kind of expected there to be more storms again this year, but you never expect it to hit the same place twice," Stewart said Saturday as he stood in what remains of his wood-frame home. "I think I'm going to live in an apartment awhile. I'm not superstitious, but it just kind of seems there's a path here and I don't want to be in it again, and I hope other people make the same choice."

While scattered damage was reported elsewhere, the worst destruction was in Limestone and Madison counties, where 190 homes were damaged or destroyed.

The damage included nearly every house in Stewart's neighborhood on Yarbrough Road, located in the Tennessee Valley about 15 miles northwest of Huntsville.

The storms were not as deadly in Alabama this time. Nearly 200 miles south of Harvest, which is near the Tennessee state line, one person was killed in the Tallapoosa County community of Jackson's Gap. Last year, twisters cut a wide path of destruction across the region, killing about 250 people statewide, including at least two near where Stewart lived.

Dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed a year ago in his neighborhood, which was left looking like logging crews had come through because all of the trees were snapped and tossed to the ground.

The twister Friday was smaller and didn't cause any serious injuries, but it hit homes where people were still recovering...
The next system in da makin..
NWS Lake Charles not calling for any severe here anyway. But there may well be flooding. We are saturated. From famine to feast quickly.

TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVEL
DOWN THE WEST COAST IN INTO NEW MEXICO AND BECOME CUTOFF. THIS
WILL MEAN THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY INTO OUR REGION
WHERE IT LOOKS TO SLOWLY COME TO A HALT. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR
US IS INCREASING CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE
SYSTEM FINALLY KICKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE A BIG RAIN
MAKER AGAIN FOR THE REGION LIKE WE HAD SEVERAL WEEKS.
Quoting Skyepony:


With it saying 1004mb & considering the shape there..looks like a Subtropical Storm at best.

Still think someone should pull together a when's the first 'cane blog early this year.

2011~ June 27th
2010~ June 24th
2009~ August 10th (Some of ya'll may have been bordering suicidal..)
2008~ May 31st

Not only are we way overdue for an early start...the last three winters were cold & this one was not.


my prediction for first cane is May, after the 10th :D
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


an Andrea type of storm or Irene type of storm?

also notice this little glitch with that high 10323 something... just caught my eye


never seen the pressure so high, 10,323 mb LOL
Had a busy weekend, I'm proud of the citizens of Indiana, were a great family!

We will survive!
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Had a busy weekend, I'm proud of the citizens of Indiana, were a great family!

We will survive!

Best wishes to you and all those affected.
Uploaded by JamesCranmer on Mar 2, 2012
Video of the tornado that went though Pekin, IN 03/02/2012
Original Video posted to a friend of a friends facebook page. http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=39094071759995 5





Quoting ScottLincoln:
http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/04/us/indiana-tornado- girl/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

I think news of this was posted already, but the article leaves me with a question...
Didn't early reports say that she was found 10 miles from home, implying that the tornado had caused that? Perhaps I read the first reports wrong. But now it seems like all the news I read indicates she was found in a field near a neighbor's home, which to me would imply not 10mi from home.
The story seemed quite different originally, with the person who found the little girl taking her to one hospital, then the girl being flown to another hospital for more advanced treatment. Whoever that person was didn't know the family, it seems. The reports always made it seem that the girl was found alone in the field, and that the field was near the home of the person who found her.

There's been some rather odd conflating of information going on with this.

Either way, it's sad to hear that the youthful flower of that family is gone...
Kudos to SPC for issuing accurate forecast on March 2nd!

Quoting dogsgomoo:
The two Georgia tornadoes are officially classified as EF-1 in Cobb County and EF-3 in Haralson and Paulding Counties.


There was also an EF-3 tornado reported on March 3 near the Florida border in Georgia, see the PNS for NWS Talahassee.

NOGAPS is looking for a big severe event on Thursday over the same areas that were affected on March 2's outbreak, see link.
Quoting Hurricane1216:


There was also an EF-3 tornado reported on March 3 near the Florida border in Georgia, see the PNS for NWS Talahassee.

NOGAPS is looking for a big severe event on Thursday over the same areas that were affected on March 2's outbreak, see link.


who listens to nogaps?


Reports of snow fluries as far south as ATL Metro but i havent seen anything.

spring 70s back in a few days, hoping the pollen holds off though. The baby pine cones starting to come out on the pine trees, so im probably a goner.


NISA’s ad hoc team pointed to reactor meltdowns early

Previous ArticleTEPCO to insert thermometer through pipe into Fukushima reactor

March 04, 2012

By TATSUYUKI KOBORI/ Staff Writer

Two months before it was made public that fuel melted in three reactors at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, a team at the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency deduced it but nothing was done with the sensitive information.

The team concluded in a report that meltdowns occurred at the No. 1 to 3 reactors as of 2:45 p.m. on March 18, a week after the Great East Japan Earthquake, according to documents that The Asahi Shimbun obtained through a freedom-of-information request.

But the NISA did not publish the team's analysis because it was a provisional organization hastily assembled of about 10 officials, including from the industry ministry and the Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization.

Eiji Hiraoka, the NISA’s vice director-general, said he did not prioritize the analysis because there were no rules on incorporating work by provisional organizations.

“We must reflect on that we failed to establish (the team) within the formal organizational structure,” Hiraoka said.

The plant’s operator, Tokyo Electric Power Co., acknowledged a meltdown at the No. 1 reactor on May 15 and those at the No. 2 and 3 reactors on May 24, two months after the plant was crippled by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

The NISA acknowledged the meltdowns only after TEPCO’s announcement. The team’s analysis was not utilized for explanations to the public or other initial responses to the nuclear disaster.

The ad hoc team started its activities on March 14 within the NISA’s Emergency Response Center.

The NISA’s policy planning and coordination division requested the group's formation to obtain level-headed evaluations at a time when conventional divisions responsible for analyses were preoccupied with emergency responses.

The team analyzed data on water levels and pressure, as well as readings of the Containment Atmospheric Monitoring System, which measures radiation dose rates in the reactors’ containment vessels. All data were sent from TEPCO on an around-the-clock basis.

On March 15, radiation levels sharply rose at the No. 1 and 2 reactors, suggesting that melted fuel had fallen to the bottom of the containment vessels.

Despite the meltdowns, the team’s report said stable conditions continued as long as water was pumped in from the outside because melted fuel, accumulated at the bottom, was largely submerged.

But the analysis was treated only as a reference because the team was not formally placed within the NISA’s organizational framework.


478 aspectre "Gonna have a mighty disgruntled me around here ifn our viewing of an asteroid impact event (15Feb2013) is ruined by the Mayan End of Times (21Dec2012).
TAGS: Space, SciTech, Thrills&Spills..."
482 RTSplayer "Worst case scenario: Iron [asteroid], 23km/s impact velocity..."

The saving grace is that 2012-DA14's(near)co-orbit with Earth intrinsicly precludes a worst case scenario.

Note that closest approach occurs (near)yearly. Also that in 2008, there were two close approaches: one in April and the other in September.

ie In 2008, Earth and 2012-DA14 became close once on each of the two opposite sides of their respective orbits.

To have an impact velocity significantly higher than Earth's escape velocity (~11kilometres/second), an asteroid would have to travel significantly farther from the Sun than Earth does (to allow "its fall speed toward the Sun" to be added to Earth's escape velocity: "its fall speed toward the Earth"), or on a substantially different orbit (to allow the difference in their respective orbital velocities to be added to Earth's escape velocity).
Since they so nearly share an orbit, but do not share the same orbital plane, maximum impact velocity would be slightly higher than Earth's escape velocity: for the sake of illustration, say half of the 23km/sec that you posited into the AsteroidImpactCalculator.
Since KineticEnergy = 1/2 mass times the square of the velocity, the impact energy would be 1/4 as much as the result you obtained.

Then there is your proposition that 2012-DA14 is an iron asteroid which remains substationally in one piece as it hits the surface.
The saving grace there is that a shift in its orbit significant enough to produce a ground impact requires that tidal effects break a (barely spinning) "rubble pile" asteroid into multiple pieces; which bump into each other as they separate so that the pieces go flying off into different directions.
If 2012-DA14 remains in one piece, there is no force produced to change its orbit in a manner that takes it closer than ~28,000 from Earth. And the 1in4500 chance of a collision on this go-around is reduced to extremely close to zero. (Not zero mostly cuz it could bump into multiple geostationary satellites as it passes through that zone; an "extremely close to zero" probability event.)

As for stony asteroids or "slushball"asteroids, they'd break up on impact with the upper atmosphere... so no ground strike.
Not that having a multi-megaton explosion occur overhead would be a pleasant experience.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


who listens to nogaps?


I do
Anyone notice the tropical low right along the Sunshine Coast in southeastern Queensland Australia? Looks like the low is moving just back over water so this thing might have a chance at becoming a tropical cyclone. Pretty close to tropical depression strength. Water temps in the area are between 26C to 28C which is warm enough to support tropical cyclone formation. The key will be whether this stays on or off shore. Have tropical cyclones ever formed right in this area? I can imagine them coming down from the north but this seems a bit unusual for a storm to form in that location though not that surprising since it is the subtropics.



Link
Quoting Skyepony:


With it saying 1004mb & considering the shape there..looks like a Subtropical Storm at best.

Still think someone should pull together a when's the first 'cane blog early this year.

2011~ June 27th
2010~ June 24th
2009~ August 10th (Some of ya'll may have been bordering suicidal..)
2008~ May 31st

Not only are we way overdue for an early start...the last three winters were cold & this one was not.


Technically, the first system in 2009 was in May.

2007 had a very early start also, and if I recall that winter was similar to this one.
Quoting Astrophysics:
Anyone notice the tropical low right along the Sunshine Coast in southeastern Queensland Australia? Looks like the low is moving just back over water so this thing might have a chance at becoming a tropical cyclone. Pretty close to tropical depression strength. Water temps in the area are between 26C to 28C which is warm enough to support tropical cyclone formation. The key will be whether this stays on or off shore. Have tropical cyclones ever formed right in this area? I can imagine them coming down from the north but this seems a bit unusual for a storm to form in that location though not that surprising since it is the subtropics.



Link


I didnt notice the NOGAPS, GFS or ECMWF developing anything in the SW basin. might turn into an extra-tropical low heading Southeastwards. Australia government Bureau of Meteorology doesnt make anything of it either. :)
Quoting SPLbeater:


I do

Bad decision.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Bad decision.


Why
One of the Indiana tornadoes forming not sure which one
Link
Really amazing
Quoting SPLbeater:


Why

Because the NOGAPS sucks.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because the NOGAPS sucks.


Do you have some facts that support your opinion?

The NOGAPS is from professional meteorologists just like the other models. They might not have the best forecast, but they count.

=P
TC Irina 020000UTC Mar 5th 2012

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 985.7mb/ 51.0kt

Raw T# 2.8
Adj T# 2.8
Final T# 2.6

Scene Type: CURVED BAND with 0.26 ARC in DK GRAY
Quoting SPLbeater:


Do you have some facts that support your opinion?

The NOGAPS is from professional meteorologists just like the other models. They might not have the best forecast, but they count.

=P

Well, it constantly turns every tropical wave in the Atlantic into a monster. It also develops random ghost systems that never materialize.

Same with Severe Weather, always blows it up.
More incredible videos of the Henryville tornado. I can not stop watching videos of this tornado.

looks like a little flare up

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, it constantly turns every tropical wave in the Atlantic into a monster. It also develops random ghost systems that never materialize.

Same with Severe Weather, always blows it up.


Maybe it misses intensity, but what about track forecast? I dont tend to look for intensity in forecast systems that dont exist yet:D
Quoting SPLbeater:


Maybe it misses intensity, but what about track forecast? I dont tend to look for intensity in forecast systems that dont exist yet:D


Isn't track somewhat altered by the intensity of the storm?
I got bored so I ordered radar data for the EF4 Yazoo City, MS tornado back on April 24, 2010.

Impressive radar signature.

Top Left: Base Reflectivity BR)
Top Right: Base Velocity (BV)
Bottom Left: Storm Relative Velocity (SRV)
Bottom Right: Normalized Rotation (NROT)


(Click image to enlarge)

Good night guys, I'll be back in the morning and afternoon.
Quoting nofailsafe:


Isn't track somewhat altered by the intensity of the storm?


yes. The strength of the storm can change the track due to different steering patterns in different layers of the atmosphere
i might go 2 bed now also, set my alarm for 6:30 in the mornin. an early start is a good start!

:D see yal..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because the NOGAPS sucks.
What! The NOGAPS kicks major butt! Don't be a hater!
Quoting SPLbeater:


yes. The strength of the storm can change the track due to different steering patterns in different layers of the atmosphere


I would imagine then if NOGAPS is way off with intensity then track may become a bit of an issue since track is partially dependent on intensity. Though, the degree to which this is true may not be well defined.
I got a random question about anticyclonic tornadoes.



They are very rare in the northern hemisphere temperate zone. How common is it in the deep tropics for a waterspout to rotate anticylonically, say within 5 degrees of the equator?
off topic but i just felt like i want to tell you about that I contributed...

You guys seem to be a well informed group. I have a general question about something I see rather frequently. Why would generally constant width band of disturbance exist for extended distances? The bands always seem to about 200-300 miles in width. All of that seems to be too regular. I thought weather was more chaotic than ordered. 




Quoting wxmojo:
You guys seem to be a well informed group. I have a general question about something I see rather frequently. Why would generally constant width band of disturbance exist for extended distances? The bands always seem to about 200-300 miles in width. All of that seems to be too regular. I thought weather was more chaotic than ordered. 



Not all troughs are alike. Amplitude and wavelength is important.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Technically, the first system in 2009 was in May.

2007 had a very early start also, and if I recall that winter was similar to this one.


My bad WU doesn't have TD1 in the archives for that year.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like a little flare up



Woah, that got bright.

Looks like Mr. Sun is feeling his oats today.
WOW!

7-year-old boy survives brush with tornado in North Carolina

CHARLOTTE, North Carolina (Reuters) - A 7-year-old boy was recovering on Sunday after a tornado sheared off the walls of his North Carolina home, snatched him from his bed and threw him 350 feet onto the embankment of a nearby interstate, the boy's grandmother told Reuters.

Jamal Stevens suffered only minor injuries from the Friday twister that demolished his family's two-story home in Charlotte near Interstate 485, where Jamal was found by his family a few minutes after the twister struck his neighborhood.

"I've never seen or heard anything like that," said Patricia Stevens, recalling the moment the twister "sucked out the walls" of the house in the darkness. "It was a terrible sound. I never want to go through that again. I don't want anyone to ever go through that again."

At the house, whose second story was blown away, little was left except for a garage and an exposed internal staircase. Pink insulation and debris littered the yard, which abuts the embankment of the interstate.

Stevens said that she had been sleeping on a downstairs sofa the night the tornado hit while her daughter-in-law and four young grandchildren, ages 3 through 7, slept upstairs.

The lightning and thunder suddenly picked up, there was a terrible noise, and then her daughter-in-law started passing the children down the stairs to Stevens, starting with 3-year-old twins Ashley and Amber.

When the mother ran back upstairs to get Jamal and 5-year-old Ayanna, Stevens pulled herself and the children behind the couch.

"That's when the whole wall was just sucked out," Stevens said. "I was just sitting there and I just saw the walls get sucked out. I was like, 'Wait a minute, am I seeing this right?'"

She yanked open the bathroom door, thinking of the safety measures she'd heard on TV about gathering the children and crouching in the tub, but the door was all that was left.

"The bathroom was gone, and I was looking outside," she said, adding that she then covered the twins and raced to find Jamal and Ayanna, both of whom had been sucked out of the home.

Little Ashley was unscathed. Her twin sister, Amber, was found under the rubble in the living room, alive but injured. Ayanna had been hurtled into a neighbor's yard, and Jamal had been swept onto the embankment of the interstate, Stevens said.

The children were taken to Levine Children's Hospital where Jamal was treated and released, a hospital spokesman said. Two of his sisters were held for observation and released on Sunday.

"The kids this afternoon were in pretty good spirits," said Phil Whitesell, spokesman for the Carolinas Healthcare System, adding that their mother had been weeping earlier in the day.

"She was obviously very thankful that her kids were safe," he said. "I think they were all pretty anxious to be together."

Stevens was waiting on Sunday to see her daughter-in-law for the first time since the twister destroyed the home. Jamal's biggest concern, she said, was that his beloved Xbox video game console didn't survive the storm.

While they lost everything but the clothes they were wearing, Stevens said she was counting her blessings.

"People see the house and they keep saying they can't believe we got out," she said. "They just keep saying that."

Euclidian geometry in the global weather. Wow. How does that happen?




Weather follows physical and geometric laws.

Quoting KoritheMan:

Not all troughs are alike. Amplitude and wavelength is important.
Oh wait, I should've realized who I was talking to. Still waiting on you to back up yesterday's claim.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, it constantly turns every tropical wave in the Atlantic into a monster. It also develops random ghost systems that never materialize.

Same with Severe Weather, always blows it up.
The NOGAPS turns every wave into a monster?

From what I remember last year it blew up very few African waves. The grid resolution of the NOGAPS is very poor so it is hard for it to pick up on fine details like a storm bombing out.

Maybe we are just interpreting the model runs differently...I do remember a lot of people saying the NOGAPS was developing a wave when really all it displayed was a rain blob and a closed isobar. For example, people would say the NOGAPS developed three storms on this image:




One closed isobar over a large area like this does not necessarily mean development.

Quoting TomTaylor:





One closed isobar over a large area like this does not necessarily mean development.
Well, the isobars seem too broad, for one thing.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Weather follows physical and geometric laws.
Sure, I would wholeheartedly agree that weather follows physical laws. But what geometric laws do weather follow? 
There seems to be some geophysical modelers in this group. Are geometric law correlations built into weather simulations?
Quoting TomTaylor:
The NOGAPS turns every wave into a monster?

From what I remember last year it blew up very few African waves. The grid resolution of the NOGAPS is very poor so it is hard for it to pick up on fine details like a storm bombing out.

Maybe we are just interpreting the model runs differently...I do remember a lot of people saying the NOGAPS was developing a wave when really all it displayed was a rain blob and a closed isobar. For example, people would say the NOGAPS developed three storms on this image:




One closed isobar over a large area like this does not necessarily mean development.


That lack of resolution probably contributes a great deal to the frequent phantom waves. I remember last year and the year before NOGAPS would ramp some storms up pretty well in one run but would calm down in the next. Funny initialization maybe.
Quoting wxmojo:
You guys seem to be a well informed group. I have a general question about something I see rather frequently. Why would generally constant width band of disturbance exist for extended distances? The bands always seem to about 200-300 miles in width. All of that seems to be too regular. I thought weather was more chaotic than ordered. 



So you are saying they are all alike because they have a width of anywhere from 200 to 300 miles?


You are saying the weather you have observed is too constant and not as random or chaotic as some describe, yet in order for you to describe it as ordinary and constant you are using very general terms. I'd have to say that's a pretty poor observation on your part. Those bands of clouds you are observing don't always show up, and when they do they very greatly in width, vertical height in the atmosphere, length, intensity, etc, etc.

Anyway, if you are wondering why those bands exist and tend to exhibit a width of a few hundred miles across, it's due to the front dipping down into moister tropical regions and pulling up a moisture plume along, and just ahead of, the advancing front. Air converges at the low levels along the front, drawing in moisture from the low levels, and upper level divergence creates vertical instability which allows moisture to rise and condense to form clouds. These clouds make up the bands you are seeing.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Well, the isobars seem too broad, for one thing.
Yeah, I doubt the NHC would classify that if it was on their surface analysis map.
"The tornado that devastated southern Indiana...may have shared some deadly twists with...The Joplin tornado, which...was distinguished by a rare multiple-vortex structure. In such storms, the center of the wind funnel spawns two to seven smaller twisters, or subvortices, that circulate around the edge of the cloud at speeds that can range up to 100 mph faster than the winds in the main funnel. The subvortices typically last less than a minute each...."
"...Storm-chaser Skip Talbot's photo of the Henryville tornado...

...confirms that it had a multiple-vortex structure...[And] a video from the Associated Press...that clearly shows the funnel cloud spawning subvortices"

Quoting TomTaylor:
So you are saying they are all alike because they have a width of anywhere from 200 to 300 miles?


You are saying the weather you have observed is too constant and not as random or chaotic as some describe, yet in order for you to describe it as ordinary and constant you are using very general terms. I'd have to say that's a pretty poor observation on your part. Those bands of clouds you are observing don't always show up, and when they do they very greatly in width, vertical height in the atmosphere, length, intensity, etc, etc.

Anyway, if you are wondering why those bands exist and tend to exhibit a width of a few hundred miles across, it's due to the front dipping down into moister tropical regions and pulling up a moisture plume along, and just ahead of, the advancing front. Air converges at the low levels along the front, drawing in moisture from the low levels, and upper level divergence creates vertical instability which allows moisture to rise and condense to form clouds. These clouds make up the bands you are seeing.
Thank you for your response.
No, no. I am not saying they are all alike.  When I see this feature, it is generally in the IR signature, not cloud cover. Visible cloud cover is indeed much more ragged and irregular. Was what I pointed out in the image a poor observation? It seemed to me to be an accurate observation meeting the context of the question. I will pay careful note to my future observations and perhaps submit a more definitive description of my question when the opportunity presents itself. 
Weren't they suppose to retire 2011 storms back last month?
I decided to pop up out of the blue, because I remembered the we're suppose to have the worldwide tropical cyclone naming convention back last month, I thought. I have no clue I guess, but that's what I thought I had remembered.

Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah, I doubt the NHC would classify that if it was on their surface analysis map.
Well they classified Jose. :/

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Weren't they suppose to retire 2011 storms back last month?
I decided to pop up out of the blue, because I remembered the we're suppose to have the worldwide tropical cyclone naming convention back last month, I thought. I have no clue I guess, but that's what I thought I had remembered.
April is the typical month.
Quoting wxmojo:

Thank you for your response.
No, no. I am not saying they are all alike.  When I see this feature, it is generally in the IR signature, not cloud cover. Visible cloud cover is indeed much more ragged and irregular. Was what I pointed out in the image a poor observation? It seemed to me to be an accurate observation meeting the context of the question. I will pay careful note to my future observations and perhaps submit a more definitive description of my question when the opportunity presents itself. 
well I couldn't tell if you were trolling or not so I came on a little hard at first. I should give you the benefits of the doubt though. No it wasn't really a poor observation, fronts exhibit general characteristics like this.
One month til the CSU preseason forecast, I'll be back for good in May when the African tropical wave watch begins. Less than 3 months away from the 2012 HURRICANE SEASON. Over halfway through the offseason, thank God. I've missed this place and all the tropical chatter.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
One month til the CSU preseason forecast, I'll be back for good in May when the African tropical wave watch begins. Less than 3 months away from the 2012 HURRICANE SEASON. Over halfway through the offseason, thank God. I've missed this place and all the tropical chatter.
I admit, I can hardly contain my excitement.

Speaking of which, those TCRs I did last year? Gonna do them after the dissipation of each storm, rather than wait until winter to cram it on my already busy workload. I might update them as I get new information, but you know what I mean.
Quoting KoritheMan:

April is the typical month.

Are you sure? I vaguely remember that last year it was the end of February when the announced Igor and Tomas were being retired and excluded from the naming list.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Are you sure? I vaguely remember that last year it was the end of February when the announced Igor and Tomas were being retired and excluded from the naming list.


Seems we're both wrong.

Okay, spring is the typical period.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I admit, I can hardly contain my excitement.

Speaking of which, those TCRs I did last year? Gonna do them after the dissipation of each storm, rather than wait until winter to cram it on my already busy workload.

That's a fantastic idea. The 19 TCR's from last year are still stuck on my plate, and I'm just kinda pushing them around with a fork. Just have been so busy with school.
My current forecast is already present:
14 Named storms
7 hurricanes
4 Intense

The el niño might be upon us by peak, so my numbers are kinda slimmer than I was thinking. It's been in the 80's and even 90's down here, so that gulf will be ready by June. US Gulf, BEWARE...
Quoting KoritheMan:


Seems we're both wrong.

Okay, spring is the typical period.

Hmmm. Well there's no tellin... Guess we'll have to keep an eye on the NOAA retiring storm names page. Till April... Wait n see, I think it'll be Irene, maybe Arlene cause its been used forever( I doubt it ) and lee.
Quoting Patrap:
Yellowstone seismic page..


Yikes... On that scary not, good night everyone....
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Hmmm. Well there's no tellin... Guess we'll have to keep an eye on the NOAA retiring storm names page. Till April... Wait n see, I think it'll be Irene, maybe Arlene cause its been used forever( I doubt it ) and lee.


Lee absolutely should NOT be. The flooding in the northeast was done after it became extratropical.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I got a random question about anticyclonic tornadoes.



They are very rare in the northern hemisphere temperate zone. How common is it in the deep tropics for a waterspout to rotate anticylonically, say within 5 degrees of the equator?


Lingbi County in East China's Anhui Province

Look at the structure of this Tropical Low off the coast of SE Queensland.




Loop
Good Morning! After the devastating tornados two days ago, it snowed 5 inches here in Louisville this morning. It started about 9 last night, and snowed steadily until around 3 this morning. I have never seen such huge snowflakes! The high for Wednesday and Thursday is suppose to be 65.
While we were battling tornadoes, in the UK they were battling something else.

Quoting pcbhere:
Good Morning! After the devastating tornados two days ago, it snowed 5 inches here in Louisville this morning. It started about 9 last night, and snowed steadily until around 3 this morning. I have never seen such huge snowflakes! The high for Wednesday and Thursday is suppose to be 65.
good morning, Im glad to see the temps will be warming for you folks, so many i assume still dont have power for heat etc, prayers for all still suffering so greatly over there. in the 40's here this morning in tampa bay area but going up to 70 later on, good luck to you all over there and our prayers are with you
I hope that this year, we have 20 Cat5 hurricanes that all go out to sea and affect no one :)
I want an active year but not for the U.S.

The Aussie ENSO model POAMA updated today and is in the warm neutral camp by August,September and October.

I think this should have definitely been classified, at least called a tropical depression or a weak tropical cyclone. Looked like it might have had sustained winds near 50km/hr to maybe 60km/hr from wind observations in the area. It also had a closed surface low with good structure as you have pointed out in those visible images. Looks like the storm has weakened a bit but might strengthen as it pulls away from the coast.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Look at the structure of this Tropical Low off the coast of SE Queensland.




Loop
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Hmmm. Well there's no tellin... Guess we'll have to keep an eye on the NOAA retiring storm names page. Till April... Wait n see, I think it'll be Irene, maybe Arlene cause its been used forever( I doubt it ) and lee.
The meeting moves around from year to year, both geographically and on the calendar. This year's meeting will be held April 11-15 in Ponte Vedra Beach (near Jacksonville). You can see the agenda here. (Note that reading the various seasonal reports from each participating country can often give you a good idea of any names for which retirement may be requested. A casual glance suggests that Irene is 2011's only likely candidate.)
Great blog through the weekend everyone.. so sad for all the destruction..
GM! I see the GFS is still initializing tropical development later on this month.
Confirmed EF3 Tornadoes in Eastern Kentucky Strongest Ever Observed in At Least 3 Counties

The National Weather Service confirmed late this afternoon that the tornado yesterday in Menifee and Morgan Counties was rated EF3. The tornado at Salyersville in Magoffin County was also an EF3. According to the National Climatic Data Center database of storm reports, these are the first EF3 or higher tornadoes ever reported in these 3 counties since official records began in 1950. In fact, only 1 tornado as strong as F1, on 06/02/1990, has been reported in Menifee County. The strongest previous tornado in Morgan County was an F2 on 09/29/1972. Magoffin County has had no previous tornadoes as strong as F1 and only 1 F0.
Tornado

Number of tornadoes F2/EF2 or higher intensity by county in eastern Kentucky, 1950-2011, from NWS (Click to enlarge)

Capital Climate Article...
Quoting wxmojo:
You guys seem to be a well informed group. I have a general question about something I see rather frequently. Why would generally constant width band of disturbance exist for extended distances? The bands always seem to about 200-300 miles in width. All of that seems to be too regular. I thought weather was more chaotic than ordered. 



Weather does follow a set of governing equations. What you are noticing is just half of a longwave trough. There are multiple longwave troughs set up over the globe. These longwaves are called Rossby Waves. The rest of that trough is easily seen here in this 300 mb (upper troposphere) image:



Notice how the western half of that wave dips back NW into SW Canada. It just that the eastern side has visible clouds do to processes Tom Taylor already described. The more you study the atmosphere (as I am currently doing now), you will see how waves dominate the way the atmosphere works. As a result you may sometimes notice many geometric features in satellite imagery.
Good Morning! What a storm rolled thru Saturday Night with frequent Lightning, heavy rains and 60 mph winds which did knock over some trees in my area but no wx warning. I guess maybe because of the Tampa radar being out. The worst damage was from The Villages over to Daytona Beach. Talk about the NWS dropping the ball around here only one warning issued but that was after just west of Daytona Beach a 64 mph wind gust was reported.
According to GMA this morning, 79 tornados were confirmed, largest number in March in history. Unfortunately, I just think its going to get worse before getting better.
Quoting Ameister12:
More incredible videos of the Henryville tornado. I can not stop watching videos of this tornado.



i played the worm game on this :)

next chance of good severe weather looks to be 7 to 8 days out.
Post# 613 that could be sooner like later this week as the models really don'y know what to do with the evelution of a potential cut off low. Forecast is really hard to pin later this week. Last week we knew a week out what was coming this week we have no clue because the models are differnet on every run nothing consistant yet.
From NWS Peachtree City GA forecast discussion:

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVE EAST AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE AREA. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE AREA FRIDAY
WITH THE EUROPEAN MOVING THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER S OVER THE AREA THAN
THE GFS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK. MODELS SIMILAR MOVING
THE FRONT S OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING DOWN THE EASTERN APPALACHIANS CREATING COLD AIR DAMNING.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND MOST LIKELY NON EXISTENT BY
DAYS END. GFS AND EUROPEAN DIFFERING GREATLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE TO THE TN
VALLEY OR SO ON SUNDAY WITH THE DAMNED AIRMASS MOSTLY STILL IN
PLACE.



Somebody needs to learn how to spell...
GFS continues on the 06z to spin up what appears to be a sub-tropical cyclone, now by 288 hours.
Quoting Astrophysics:
I think this should have definitely been classified, at least called a tropical depression or a weak tropical cyclone. Looked like it might have had sustained winds near 50km/hr to maybe 60km/hr from wind observations in the area. It also had a closed surface low with good structure as you have pointed out in those visible images. Looks like the storm has weakened a bit but might strengthen as it pulls away from the coast.



you are right...
yeah, they probably f**ed it up with that low

Looks like a Surface Low want to develop in the GOM in about 7 days on the GFS Model this morning.....GOOD MORNING EVERYONE





I captured this RADAR Imagery as it was Nearing Jasper, Indiana.......Called my Brother at his Manufacturing Plant and he got all his employees in a secure location. He went outside just for a moment to look and could see this Funnel Cloud Approaching. They was lucky is stayed a funnel cause this was the same Funnel that eventually hit the Marysville Town that was wiped out.....HE feels very lucky!
NEW BLOG
hewo all.

a bit late getting here, had to get rid of all that STUPID SCHOOLWORK!!!

lol
SOME OLD TORNADO VIDEOS...









Quoting sunlinepr:
SOME OLD TORNADO VIDEOS...









I saw the last video on a episode of
either FFN Or SS on TWC.
625. JRRP