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Violent thunderstorms kill 3 in North Carolina; extreme heat continues in Southeast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:48 AM GMT on July 02, 2012

Violent severe thunderstorms swept through Eastern North Carolina Sunday afternoon and evening, killing three people--one in a collapsed building, and two due to a falling tree. The deadly thunderstorms were fueled by the extreme heat affecting the Southeast, coupled with unusually high levels of moisture. The extraordinary heat and moisture caused high levels of atmospheric instability rarely seen. For those of you familiar with atmospheric stability indicies, the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in Eastern North Carolina and South Carolina at 2 pm EDT Sunday was 5000 - 6000, with a lifted index of -14. The Morehead City NWS office analyzed CAPE levels in excess of 7000 in the region, which is a truly rare occurrence. Fortunately, there was very little wind shear Sunday, so the upper-level winds were not able to induce the kind of twisting force needed to generate tornadoes. Sunday's powerful storms brought more power outages and damage to a region still suffering the impacts of Friday's rare derecho event, which killed 14 people and left power outages that still affect at least 2 million people. According to insurance broker Aon Benfield, the storm initially knocked out power to 2.5 million people in Virginia, the largest non-hurricane related power outage in state history. A derecho is a fast-moving, long-lived, violent thunderstorm complex that usually develops along the northern edge of a very hot air mass, in conjunction with an active jet stream. Friday's derecho was one of the largest and most destructive in U.S. history, and compares to the May 8, 2009 derecho that swept across the nation from Kansas to Kentucky, killing six and causing $500 million in damage.


Figure 1. Radar image of Sunday's violent thunderstorms that killed three people in North Carolina.

Dangerous extreme heat continues in the Southeast
Temperatures near all-time record levels continued for much of the Southeast on Sunday. The temperature in Atlanta, GA hit 105°F, which would have been the hottest temperature in city history, had the mercury not hit 106° the day before. On Sunday, Columbia, South Carolina hit 106°, the 5th highest temperature ever recorded there. Columbia hit 109° on Friday and 108° on Saturday, the two hottest days since record keeping began in 1887.

People in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic without power must endure more extreme heat the next few days, with temperatures in the 100s and upper 90s expected over much of the region. While the temperatures are generally expected to be a few degrees cooler than what was seen Friday and Saturday, it is not the extremity of the temperatures in a heat wave that result in the highest heat stress to vulnerable people, but rather the length of time very high temperatures last. A multi-day period of exceptionally hot weather often causes high mortality. Yesterday's airmass was exceptionally humid, which greatly increases heat stress, since the body cools less efficiently in humid conditions. Aberdeen, Mississippi recorded a temperature of 104° with a dewpoint of 84° at 3 pm EDT Sunday, resulting in ridiculously high heat index of 136. Goldsboro, NC had a dewpoint of 87° at 11 am Sunday, the highest dewpoint I can recall seeing in the U.S., and something more typical of what is seen in Saudi Arabia along the shores of the Red Sea. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the highest dew point temperature in world history is probably the 95°F (35°C) recorded at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia at 3 p.m. on July 8, 2003. The dry bulb temperature stood at 108°F at the time, so theoretically the heat index was 176°F. Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) apparently once recorded a dew point of 93.2° (date unknown) according to ‘Weather Climate Extremes’ Army Corps of Engineers TEC-0099 report.

Mr. Burt has a new post called The Amazing June Heat Wave of 2012 Part 2: The Midwest and Southeast June 28-30 summarizing the later portion of the historic heat wave currently affecting the U.S. He comments:

What was truly astonishing was the number of all-time any month records that were broken or tied. This is especially extraordinary since they have occurred in June rather than July or August when 95% of the previous all-time heat records have been set for this part of the country (unlike the Southwest where June is often the month that all-time heat extremes are recorded). Eighteen of the 298 locations I follow closely (because of their long Period of Record and representation of U.S. climate) have already broken or tied their all-time heat records. The only year with more all-time heat records is 1936, when 61 cities set all-time heat records.

It is just July the 1st and the summer has just begun.


Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

You won't want to miss my next post, scheduled for 2:30 pm EDT Monday.

Jeff Masters
BACKYARD BBQ
BACKYARD BBQ
Live,,from the BWS [BathroomWindowStudio] in downtown Shenandoah! This is in one 'take'...there was some wicked strikes around,,but no rain in town!! These little cells just skirted the perimeter as usual....hopefully later today we will get some refreshing rain..It had been very humid all day and evening..lots of atmosphere for this display to cut thru...Too bad that darned power pole and trees are in the way,right?!! Maybe I'll chop it down! Started here about 2 a.m. Sunday
June 29 Virginia Derecho
June 29 Virginia Derecho
Captured this outside my house before the passing of the storm.
100 degrees ... I'm cool
100 degrees ... I'm cool
This young lady chose to cool her heels in the Fox River this afternoon as the temperature was topping 102 degrees in carpentersville, IL
Keep on Truckin'
Keep on Truckin'
Trucks keep right on rollin past a wildfire in Pocatello, ID

Extreme Weather Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Cheers Doc
thanks...

hmmmmmmm....

"You won't want to miss my next post, scheduled for 2:30 pm EDT Monday."
Thank you Dr Masters. I can't wait to see that 2:30 PM EDT blog.


We have Invest 96E at EPAC.And it looks like it will not affect the Mexican coast.

Thanks Dr. M. Some of those heat induced mesoscale complexes developed over Georgia last evening and came through North Florida around midnight but not as strong as the weather in the Carolinas. While overnight CAPE values were reasonably high in this region, the jet stream was not positioned over this area.

While NHC is giving that E-Pac system a 10% chance as of this morning, it is looking quite impressive to me at the moment and could be bumped up by tomorrow at this rate.

Looking forward to Your post later today.
thx Dr. Masters

You won't want to miss my next post, scheduled for 2:30 pm EDT Monday.


oh, goody
What was truly astonishing was the number of all-time any month records that were broken or tied. This is especially extraordinary since they have occurred in June rather than July or August when 95% of the previous all-time heat records have been set for this part of the country (unlike the Southwest where June is often the month that all-time heat extremes are recorded). Eighteen of the 298 locations I follow closely (because of their long Period of Record and representation of U.S. climate) have already broken or tied their all-time heat records. The only year with more all-time heat records is 1936, when 61 cities set all-time heat records.


Just wait. The range of seasonal variation on the Keeling Curve does a bifurcation every 5.5 years for low latitudes, every 12 years for polar regions, and probably about every 9 years for mid latitudes.

Every eleventh year is two full ranges outside the previous range, and if you line up elevens with the solar cycle, then each solar cycle should be noticeably hotter than the previous.



My suspicion is that AGW caused by CO2 will produce vertical instability between the Troposphere and Stratosphere, and potentially produce exotic forms of weather which we have little or no experience with, such as weird outbursts of convection which release the heat into the stratosphere. CO2 can trap radiation, but it can't stop mechanical or thermodynamic work.

I have a hypothesis about a certain potential exotic weather event which is NOT cyclonic in nature.

If you want a clue, imagine cooking chocolate on a stove to make home made candy. It will work like a volcano or bomb, except 100% in the atmosphere...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
well it looks like georgia got some rain last night
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


That is one massive wave coming off the coast of Africa.
96E will probably become hurricane or major hurricane Daniel in the next few days.
Unbelievable! This is one powerful El-Nino setting in. This appears it wants to rival one of the strongest El-Nino's on record from 1997/1998.



This was last week and look at the HUGE jump in the SST anomalies.
Expect Hurricane Season 2012 to come to a fast close by the end of September/ early October. At this rate I say we get 10 to 11 storms and that's it based on this.

Wow! We don't even get dew points that high! Hope the heatwave and severe weather ends. I can't imagine going through that with no power. Take care everyone. Couldn't be more mild around here. And I do appreciate that.

Orange County Airport
Lat: 30.07 Lon: -93.8 Elev: 13
Last Update on Jul 2, 7:35 am CDT

Fog/Mist

75 °F
(24 °C)
Humidity: 100 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 30.10"
Dewpoint: 75 °F (24 °C)
Visibility: 5.00 mi.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Expect Hurricane Season 2012 to come to a fast close by the end of September/ early October. At this rate I say we get 10 to 11 storms and that's it based on this.



Is El Nino measured against the long term weather records, or is it based on the 30 year "normal"?

I've never seen that discussed, and of course, before modern records keeping began, there wasn't exactly a technical definition of what an "El Nino" was, and it couldn't actually be tracked before buoys and later satellites become commonplace.


It makes a difference, because if it's measured against the long term records, then AGW has raised the base temperature by about a full degree during the period of measurement, mostly in the past few decades, which would skew the classifications in FAVOR of more El Ninos...
Quoting RTSplayer:
I have a hypothesis about a certain potential exotic weather event which is NOT cyclonic in nature.


Does Arctic Amplification Fuel Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes?


In short, weather becoming more "stuck", more persistent.
Yesterday's airmass was exceptionally humid, which greatly increases heat stress, since the body cools less efficiently in humid conditions. Aberdeen, Mississippi recorded a temperature of 104° with a dewpoint of 84° at 3 pm EDT Sunday, resulting in ridiculously high heat index of 136.


Yep. Last week there was a weather station near Ponchatoula, LA which reported temperature above 100 and a heat index above 130f.

I guess it didn't make the news because Ponchatoula is a little hole in the wall town, and the station probably isn't an official NWS station.

That's fine, just making the point that the reading of above 130f heat index is not an isolated event, at least not for this year...
Also expect a tremendous amount of rain from California to TX and over to FL with this strong of an El-Nino from October thru March of 2013. Also expect lots of severe weather for the SE US especially in FL.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Is El Nino measured against the long term weather records, or is it based on the 30 year "normal"?

I've never seen that discussed, and of course, before modern records keeping began, there wasn't exactly a technical definition of what an "El Nino" was, and it couldn't actually be tracked before buoys and later satellites become commonplace.


It makes a difference, because if it's measured against the long term records, then AGW has raised the base temperature by about a full degree during the period of measurement, mostly in the past few decades, which would skew the classifications in FAVOR of more El Ninos...


That's a great point.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Also expect a tremendous amount of rain from California to TX and over to FL with this strong of an El-Nino from October thru March of 2013. Also expect lots of severe weather for the SE US especially in FL.


And a big winter for Texas.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Unbelievable! This is one powerful El-Nino setting in. This appears it wants to rival one of the strongest El-Nino's on record from 1997/1998.


Given the association of extreme weather and climate events with rising global temperature, the expectation of new record high temperatures in 2012 also suggests that the frequency and magnitude of extreme events could reach a high level in 2012. Extreme events include not only high temperatures, but also indirect effects of a warming atmosphere including the impact of higher temperature on extreme rainfall and droughts. The greater water vapor content of a warmer atmosphere allows larger rainfall anomalies and provides the fuel for stronger storms driven by latent heat. – Dr James Hansen NASA 2010
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Also expect a tremendous amount of rain from California to TX and over to FL with this strong of an El-Nino from October thru March of 2013. Also expect lots of severe weather for the SE US especially in FL.


yep, but not as many gigantic tornado outbreaks

im hoping for a record snowfall this winter, maybe a foot
All across the world, in every kind of environment and region known to man, increasingly dangerous weather patterns and devastating storms are abruptly putting an end to the long-running debate over whether or not climate change is real. Not only is it real, it’s here, and its effects are giving rise to a frighteningly new global phenomenon: the man-made natural disaster. – Barack Obama, 3 April 2006
27. MTWX
Quoting RTSplayer:
Yesterday's airmass was exceptionally humid, which greatly increases heat stress, since the body cools less efficiently in humid conditions. Aberdeen, Mississippi recorded a temperature of 104° with a dewpoint of 84° at 3 pm EDT Sunday, resulting in ridiculously high heat index of 136.


Yep. Last week there was a weather station near Ponchatoula, LA which reported temperature above 100 and a heat index above 130f.

I guess it didn't make the news because Ponchatoula is a little hole in the wall town, and the station probably isn't an official NWS station.

That's fine, just making the point that the reading of above 130f heat index is not an isolated event, at least not for this year...


So is Aberdeen. It is about 15 minutes north of me...


Can we beat the 1983/1983 el nino?

that was at 2.5C i believe

While not a direct cause of El Ni%uFFFDo, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, propagates rainfall anomalies eastward around the global tropics in a cycle of 30%u201360 days, and may influence the speed of development and intensity of El Ni%uFFFDo and La Ni%uFFFDa in several ways.[14] For example, westerly flows between MJO-induced areas of low pressure may cause cyclonic circulations north and south of the equator. When the circulations intensify, the westerly winds within the equatorial Pacific can further increase and shift eastward, playing a role in El Ni%uFFFDo development.[15] Madden-Julian activity can also produce eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves, which may in turn be influenced by a developing El Ni%uFFFDo, leading to a positive feedback loop.[16]

Maybe the MJO pulse helped start El Nino off

but then again, we could go modoki and have some storms like these:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


yep, but not as many gigantic tornado outbreaks

im hoping for a record snowfall this winter, maybe a foot


That's not true El-nino's are deadly here in FL as believe it or not we do get some serious tornado outbreaks during El-Nino winters as the Sountern Jet-stream dives in across the Gulf and over FL.

Had a real light show a couple of hours ago here in Pensacola. Haven't seen that much lightning in a while.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Can we beat the 1983/1983 el nino?

that was at 2.5C i believe

While not a direct cause of El Ni�o, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, propagates rainfall anomalies eastward around the global tropics in a cycle of 30%u201360 days, and may influence the speed of development and intensity of El Ni�o and La Ni�a in several ways.[14] For example, westerly flows between MJO-induced areas of low pressure may cause cyclonic circulations north and south of the equator. When the circulations intensify, the westerly winds within the equatorial Pacific can further increase and shift eastward, playing a role in El Ni�o development.[15] Madden-Julian activity can also produce eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves, which may in turn be influenced by a developing El Ni�o, leading to a positive feedback loop.[16]

Maybe the MJO pulse helped start El Nino off


I agree this latest MJO as put this El-Nino into high gear!
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


Does Arctic Amplification Fuel Extreme Weather in Mid-Latitudes?


In short, weather becoming more "stuck", more persistent.



Yes, and persistence builds resistance. Resistance builds "tension". Tension builds explosive "seismic" release of energy, particularly vertically to my mind, since CO2 will be a buffer and container of heat in the troposphere, at least until a mechanical limit is reached.

Of course, normal thunderstorms moderate and prevent this effect due to precipitation, as the water reaches upper layers of the atmosphere and cools by releasing it's heat, etc, because the build-up happens gradually enough to be moderated and prevent the "explosion".

But if it happens without a moist environment, so that the mechanics of water can't moderate it, or if it happens in an environment that is super-saturated, rather than moderated, then it should be possible to get an instantaneous "burst" of such tension being released explosively before normal cooling and precipitation can moderate the effects.


The result of this would be an acute, upwards explosion of heat and air from the troposphere expelling into the stratosphere, potentially followed shortly thereafter by a super-cooled down burst from the stratosphere filling back in the vacated space.

Not a hurricane or Hypercane, nor necessarily a cyclone at all, but simply a bursting "Heat Bubble," which implies a bomb-like shock wave, rather than ordinary winds.


This should be possible if you have horizontal stability, but vertical instability, just as the chocolate candy example, as it would allow these thermodynamic forces to build up in one location until release happens.
El Nino Smelnino.. I'm still predicting an above average Hurricane season 13-15 named storms. This doesn't change a thing.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Expect Hurricane Season 2012 to come to a fast close by the end of September/ early October. At this rate I say we get 10 to 11 storms and that's it based on this.



Umm.. it usually does come to a close at the end of September. Nothing unusual there.
Quoting reedzone:
El Nino Smelnino.. I'm still predicting an above average Hurricane season 13-15 named storms. This doesn't change a thing.


if firing up the grill, would you like to grill your own crow, or shall i do it?

I say 11-4-2,
despite the fact it is 2012.
but both majors will end up in the US and at least one will be very destructive, expecially if we have a modoki and less shear.

BTW this is my first prediction of this year.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


if firing up the grill, would you like to grill your own crow, or shall i do it?

I say 11-4-2,
despite the fact it is 2012.
but both majors will end up in the US and at least one will be very destructive, expecially if we have a modoki and less shear.

BTW this is my first prediction of this year.

Good analysis if u ask me
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And a big winter for Texas.


I don't know what the ENSO was doing in January 1997 but we had one very odd winter event that month. I guess the opposite of the heatwave going on now. Some of these scenes became all too familiar a few years later but this was different.


ICE STORM 1997

Mark David Roth*
National Weather Service
Lake Charles, LA

About the Lake Charles County Warning Area (CWA)

Lake Charles is located in extreme southwestern Louisiana, about 30 miles east of the Sabine River which divides the states of Louisiana and Texas. Being at a latitude of 30 degrees north and near the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, significant winter precipitation events are uncommon along the coast, but become more common in central and northern sections of the state. Extreme winter events such as blizzards are virtually unknown to almost everyone in the area. This makes any accumulation of snow, sleet, or freezing rain a major hazard, as snowplows and other de-icing equipment are nowhere to be found throughout Louisiana and the public has little experience with wintery situations.

Effects of the Ice Storm

A quarter inch of ice accumulated primarily on grassy and non-paved surfaces, with an inch accumulating on higher, more exposed surfaces such as trees and power lines. This storm left around 3/4 of the area between Beaumont, TX and Lake Charles, LA powerless. Power outages were noted at far west as Houston and Galveston, in some cases for as many as 5 days.

Images from Beaumont Enterprise



So what's responsible for the missing rainy season in South Florida? (Or at least SW Florida?) It's July now, and if it weren't for Debby I'd be watching all my trees brown up and die.

For the last few days, every time I've put on TWC Local they've shown clear, sunny orbs for "today" and "tomorrow" and then a return to showers after that, and then every day they bump those showers back by another day and keep the sunny days for the immediate forecast.

I really do need to just move....
Invest96E:
471miles(759kilometres) south of Acapulco(ACA)
Quoting OrchidGrower:
So what's responsible for the missing rainy season in South Florida? (Or at least SW Florida?) It's July now, and if it weren't for Debby I'd be watching all my trees brown up and die.

For the last few days, every time I've put on TWC Local they've shown clear, sunny orbs for "today" and "tomorrow" and then a return to showers after that, and then every day they bump those showers back by another day and keep the sunny days for the immediate forecast.

I really do need to just move....


It's like that everywhere.

Plus a "chance" of Thunderstorms means it might happen, doesn't mean definitely. You can have a 90% chance and still fail to get a Thunderstorm, or you can have a 1% chance and still be the one who actually gets it...it happens.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I don't know what the ENSO was doing in January 1997 but we had one very odd winter event that month. I guess the opposite of the heatwave going on now. Some of these scenes became all too familiar a few years later but this was different.


ICE STORM 1997

Mark David Roth*
National Weather Service
Lake Charles, LA

About the Lake Charles County Warning Area (CWA)

Lake Charles is located in extreme southwestern Louisiana, about 30 miles east of the Sabine River which divides the states of Louisiana and Texas. Being at a latitude of 30 degrees north and near the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, significant winter precipitation events are uncommon along the coast, but become more common in central and northern sections of the state. Extreme winter events such as blizzards are virtually unknown to almost everyone in the area. This makes any accumulation of snow, sleet, or freezing rain a major hazard, as snowplows and other de-icing equipment are nowhere to be found throughout Louisiana and the public has little experience with wintery situations.

Effects of the Ice Storm

A quarter inch of ice accumulated primarily on grassy and non-paved surfaces, with an inch accumulating on higher, more exposed surfaces such as trees and power lines. This storm left around 3/4 of the area between Beaumont, TX and Lake Charles, LA powerless. Power outages were noted at far west as Houston and Galveston, in some cases for as many as 5 days.

Images from Beaumont Enterprise





I remember that storm. I was living in Sealy, TX at the time. Little did I know at the time, 2 years later I'd be living in Duluth, MN for 10 years.
43. MTWX
Quoting TemplesOfSyrinxC4:
Agenda 21 Dense MegaCities of the Future Already Underway


Songdo IBD, South Korea for example is billed as the world's 1st planned-opolis greenazi "U-city". They domake it look really nice, that is if you don't mind having private property and single-family residences abolished and having every aspect of life from cradle to grave be monitored including your food choices by the issuance of calorie credits. Plebs' lives to be totally controlled and micromanaged by nanny-state bureaucrats with RFID/USN systems to keep the rifraff out of designated areas, there will be no need for physical Caves of Steel , the plebs will not be allowed to travel outside of areas designated off-limits to humans, the H+ group for all intents and purposes view themselves as Gods as Stewart Brand put it,really a different species altogether from mere humans, so they'll get a special RFID chip or facial recognition software that will allow only them to travel outside of the densely populated mega-cities.


Talk about a "Brave New World"
Thanks Jeff. 1430, standing by...
The infamous "Agenda 21" conspiracy theory. Looks way out of place on a site based in actual science and facts. Didn't think I'd need a tinfoil hat at the ready, here.

Quoting TemplesOfSyrinxC4:
Agenda 21 Dense MegaCities of the Future Already Underway


Songdo IBD, South Korea for example is billed as the world's 1st planned-opolis greenazi "U-city". They domake it look really nice, that is if you don't mind having private property and single-family residences abolished and having every aspect of life from cradle to grave be monitored including your food choices by the issuance of calorie credits. Plebs' lives to be totally controlled and micromanaged by nanny-state bureaucrats with RID/USN systems to keep the rifraff out of designated areas, there will be no need for physical Caves of Steel , the plebs will not be allowed to travel outside of areas designated off-limits to humans, the H+ group for all intents and purposes view themselves as Gods as Stewart Brand put it,really a different species altogether from mere humans, so they'll get a special RFID chip or facial recognition software that will allow only them to travel outside of the densely populated mega-cities.
46. 7544
morning all looks like the wave in the caribiean will be giving so fl some rain for the 4th of july looking to see if it tries to develope before than stay tuned
Quoting jascott1967:


I remember that storm. I was living in Sealy, TX at the time. Little did I know at the time, 2 years later I'd be living in Duluth, MN for 10 years.


Oh my. That's quite another world from here. :) I had lived in some cold places before 1997 so it wasn't totally alien to me. But I've become rotten living here. I don't know that I could make it in Germany again. Lol.
Quoting Tazmanian:



how many time have wounder blog admin have said it plzs keep your off topic photos too your own blog olny this is a weather blog olny it all so dos not matter if we have a storm out there or not plzs keep your off topic photos too your owns blogs the admins have give you warning after warning after warning and still you do it any ways and too tell you am geting a litttle sick of it has well this is a weather blog for weather info not a fun blog if you want too be posting fun things do it in your own blog not here on the main blog you guys sould be vary lucky that am not the admin on the blog or you be ending up geting a 24 hr ban for evere time you guys post some in off topic like a few of you did last night so if i was the admin some of you would have been ban from last night so this is warning keep your off topic photos and other none weather stuff too your own blogs or wunder blog adim could be handing out bans
Taz. I have not seen contribute much to this blog lately, and there has been plenty of weather news to discuss and learn from. In fact, the only time it seems you have something to say is if you feel someone ( whether they are posting relevant weather info or not ) have violated rules or the road. Maybe you should just ignore or report them. Better yet, become part of Admin and ban them yourself.
Quoting RTSplayer:



But if it happens without a moist environment, so that the mechanics of water can't moderate it, or if it happens in an environment that is super-saturated, rather than moderated, then it should be possible to get an instantaneous "burst" of such tension being released explosively before normal cooling and precipitation can moderate the effects.

I think you describing a Microburst. In 1990 Isaac Asimov was warning about this.

Here is a video including this but it's a bit longer. START watching at 1:40 min Asimov talks about Hurricanes, Tornadoes and Microburst

Quoting TemplesOfSyrinxC4:
Agenda 21 Dense MegaCities of the Future Already Underway


Songdo IBD, South Korea for example is billed as the world's 1st planned-opolis greenazi "U-city". They domake it look really nice, that is if you don't mind having private property and single-family residences abolished and having every aspect of life from cradle to grave be monitored including your food choices by the issuance of calorie credits. Plebs' lives to be totally controlled and micromanaged by nanny-state bureaucrats with RFID/USN systems to keep the rifraff out of designated areas, there will be no need for physical Caves of Steel , the plebs will not be allowed to travel outside of areas designated off-limits to humans, the H+ group for all intents and purposes view themselves as Gods as Stewart Brand put it,really a different species altogether from mere humans, so they'll get a special RFID chip or facial recognition software that will allow only them to travel outside of the densely populated mega-cities.





Ah yes, right winger at it again.

If you want to actually feed the 9 billion people who will be living on this planet in another 25 years, you need farm land, therefore rural and sub-urban communities will need to be abolished and converted into more efficient farm land. In order to accomplish this, you need vertical infrastructure and mega-cities.

What we have on this planet is a wisdom issue. Is it wise or moral for families in "free" civilizations to continue having 3 or more children per woman, when world population and pollution levels are already beyond natural limits of the Earth to heal and support?


The right wing hypocrites don't want "leftist" population regulation, and frankly neither do I, however, the right wing also doesn't want any of the reasonable and logical requirements of dealing with over population WITHOUT population regulation...you know, actually planning infrastructure on a regional or global basis years or even generations ahead of time, which is what we REALLY need in the U.S., instead of the existing 4 year short-sighted, election cycle plans we have now...



So just what do you want? Everyone just consume everything and pollute everything and reproduce at the maximum possible rate until the planet dies and vomits humans out of existence? Apparently, nothing could be more "Republican" nor more mainstream "Christian" than that. If every woman has ten kids we could jump the curve up to 35 billion in just about one generation, maybe the Pope would like that for his anti-sex ed, anti-contraception doctrine?
The East Pacific's next hurricane in the making:

Ahhhhhhhh, 2 day work week this week. Let the party begin Wednesday.
1-3 inches of rain over 3 days in parts of SE TX
55. MTWX
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ahhhhhhhh, 2 day work week this week. Let the party begin Wednesday.


Wish I could say the same! Wednesday is the only day I have off... :(
Here is link, from a 2006 presentation by two Melbourne, Florida NWS Staffers, on the impacts of an El Nino Winter and Spring on Florida.

Link



Bottom Line
El Nino favors certain seasonal weather
patterns for Florida
More Winter/Spring storms Severe weather
Higher rainfall totals
Cooler temperatures - but less chance of big freeze
Good Morning...all quiet on the western front.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ahhhhhhhh, 2 day work week this week. Let the party begin Wednesday.


What??? You mean you don't have to go back to work Thursday and Friday?
Quoting iceman100:


What??? You mean you don't have to go back to work Thursday and Friday?


Taking vacation time, surprised lot of people aren't doing it also. Probably can't get allowed the time off I guess.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Taking vacation time, surprised lot of people aren't doing it also. Probably can't get allowed the time off I guess.


Lucky. I would totally take the time if I could swing it. But my boss might kill me if I take more random time off. She already thinks I don't care about what goes on because I'm so busy with school (she isn't too far from the truth).
I disagree that we're gonna have just an average season. We've already had 3 named storms, one Hurricane.. I'm expecting 13-15 named storms total. El Nino or not, this will most likely be a bit of an active season with some landfalling storms.
62. 7544
Quoting reedzone:
I disagree that we're gonna have just an average season. We've already had 3 named storms, one Hurricane.. I'm expecting 13-15 named storms total. El Nino or not, this will most likely be a bit of an active season with some landfalling storms.


yeap red got to agree on the land fallling stroms this season remember folks it only takes one big one im so thinking that south fl will see a landfall this time tho time will tell wait watch and be prepared
96E
Thanks doc!
Quoting reedzone:
I disagree that we're gonna have just an average season. We've already had 3 named storms, one Hurricane.. I'm expecting 13-15 named storms total. El Nino or not, this will most likely be a bit of an active season with some landfalling storms.


We will not know the final numbers until all is said and done when the season ends, but, I agree with you on the issue of possible land falling storms whether on the US or in the Greater Antilles. The emerging A-B high pattern (see current position below) is looking rather ominous in terms of steering influences (no fish storms).

Link

We will have to wait to see what happens come August and September but you never know. If this very strong ridging pattern persists over Florida and the Gulf, we could also see one of those seasons where a few CV hurricanes bypass the Greater Antilles altogether and track West into Mexico or Central America.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The East Pacific's next hurricane in the making:



Looks really good
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

I think you describing a Microburst. In 1990 Isaac Asimov was warning about this.

Here is a video including this but it's a bit longer. START watching at 1:40 min Asimov talks about Hurricanes, Tornadoes and Microburst



Interesting. I listened to like 40 minutes of it so far.

I can't believe I've never even heard of this book. I'm probably going to listen to that entire thing.

Asimov always amazed me, as he's one of those guys who "knows everything" from an incredible degree of study in so many fields.


It's incredible that he even described an additional positive albedo feedback mechanism I had recognized, but had never heard anyone talk about. Incredibly insightful, and given the discussion of how bad hurricanes became SINCE 1991, it's mostly verified.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


if firing up the grill, would you like to grill your own crow, or shall i do it?

I say 11-4-2,
despite the fact it is 2012.
but both majors will end up in the US and at least one will be very destructive, expecially if we have a modoki and less shear.

BTW this is my first prediction of this year.


I'll be in the back... Cooking your crow for that forecast
Good Morning Everyone..

I have to say the storm we got yesterday, I saw the most unusual clouds..our local media posted a youtube video of a time lapse of the clouds as they arrived in topsail beach, nc..I will say the wind that preceded the storm was eerie but thankfully we didnt lose any power..

I am going to post the link due to people have issues of youtube videos posted here..very cool!

Link
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone..

I have to say the storm we got yesterday, I saw the most unusual clouds..our local media posted a youtube video of a time lapse of the clouds as they arrived in topsail beach, nc..I will say the wind that preceded the storm was eerie but thankfully we didnt lose any power..

I am going to post the link due to people have issues of youtube videos posted here..very cool!

Link


That is a toroidal vortex.

Vortex Ring Toroidal Vortex
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone..

I have to say the storm we got yesterday, I saw the most unusual clouds..our local media posted a youtube video of a time lapse of the clouds as they arrived in topsail beach, nc..I will say the wind that preceded the storm was eerie but thankfully we didnt lose any power..

I am going to post the link due to people have issues of youtube videos posted here..very cool!

Link


Good morning to you, too. WOW, that is really cool the clouds look like they're boiling :) Glad you are okay and didn't loose your power, that is a pain.
Quoting beell:


Are you talkin' to me?

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Unbelievable! This is one powerful El-Nino setting in. This appears it wants to rival one of the strongest El-Nino's on record from 1997/1998.



This was last week and look at the HUGE jump in the SST anomalies.
I wonder. 97-98 was pretty big.
Quoting reedzone:
I disagree that we're gonna have just an average season. We've already had 3 named storms, one Hurricane.. I'm expecting 13-15 named storms total. El Nino or not, this will most likely be a bit of an active season with some landfalling storms.
landfalls.are.the.key.two.so.far
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone..

I have to say the storm we got yesterday, I saw the most unusual clouds..our local media posted a youtube video of a time lapse of the clouds as they arrived in topsail beach, nc..I will say the wind that preceded the storm was eerie but thankfully we didnt lose any power..

I am going to post the link due to people have issues of youtube videos posted here..very cool!

Link


OK, that was cool to watch. We get hose types of storms rolling through the DFW/TX area area every year. You just have to stand outside and watch it till it passes!

Unfortunately, it is usually a "2 days of warning, 10 minutes of terror" kind of storm. Meaning, the potential for severe weather is severely hyped for two+ days, but we only get 10 minutes of rain and some wind out of it.

Yeah, I know, I do not want the kind of storms that the East has had last week, (we've had them though), but its the rain we usually need more.

If any of the people in the East, could not understand how the electric power could be out so long after a Hurricane (think Rita, Gustav, Katrina), I think they get it now.

Back to lurking, enjoying reading Dr. Masters (and crew) and the bloggers.
Quoting reedzone:
I disagree that we're gonna have just an average season. We've already had 3 named storms, one Hurricane.. I'm expecting 13-15 named storms total. El Nino or not, this will most likely be a bit of an active season with some landfalling storms.
well, we've already had 4 named storms.
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning Everyone..

I have to say the storm we got yesterday, I saw the most unusual clouds..our local media posted a youtube video of a time lapse of the clouds as they arrived in topsail beach, nc..I will say the wind that preceded the storm was eerie but thankfully we didnt lose any power..

I am going to post the link due to people have issues of youtube videos posted here..very cool!

Link

Yeah, those mammatus after the shelf cloud were a little ominous looking lol.
Rise in sea level can't be stopped, scientists say

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/01/climate -sealevel-idUSL6E8HSIDA20120701

By Nina Chestney

LONDON, July 1 (Reuters) - Rising sea levels cannot be stopped over the next several hundred years, even if deep emissions cuts lower global average temperatures, but they can be slowed down, climate scientists said in a study on Sunday.
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder. 97-98 was pretty big.


El-Nino maybe declared today. Waiting for the update from cpc right now to see if we will have it offically declared. Just from last week to today there was a huge jump in the SST's across the E-Pac.
.
Hello Again

This is my 2nd or 3rd Post here, still a 'newbie'

And in my Original, during the time of Debby

I Boldly Predicted another 'storm' in Her Wake

Well, in a sense I was 'correct', what we just had

Ok, off by 1,000 miles or so, big deal, small %

But what I hope all can "see" ?

Is the idea of 'Energy' ... when/where it happens

Yes, was not Fla/Gulf, but further up East Coast

And you all do the math, but don't forget those %'s
.

Now, seems we're finally moving to a new 'pattern' ?
The 'more normal' pattern for June/ July ?
Perhaps Bermuda High finally setting up for Season ?
But this year is just a 'month late' (or some % ? )
etc etc, dig ?

This maybe a 'valid observation' ?
Maybe worthy of discussion and consideration ?

Again, sorry am not 'officially tech' in my verbology
But as they say, sometimes ...

Don't need Weather Man to Know Which Way ... etc ;-)

Thanks, BC
.

Quoting weatherh98:
well, we've already had 4 named storms.


We have had 4 storms is right but we have a smaller window this year to get more storms before wind shear takes over the Atlantic Basin. There is no question now that a major El-Nino event is looming.
As far as forecasting the strength of the likely upcoming El Nino, please don't base off just one model, or even a model ensemble... Look at all that are available. The 82-83 El Nino and the 97-98 El Nino were historic in strength, similar to how the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons were historic in impact. Those type of events are the exception, not the rule.

(additionally, bear in mind that while the EPAC may look really abnormally warm, the strength of an ENSO episode is decided much more to the west)
However 2002/2003 was a moderate El-nino and we still had an active October Tropical wise so you never know sometimes. Wait and see I guess.
83. MTWX
For those of you still following the fires in the West, here are a few of the "biggies"...

— Utah: Fire commanders say Utah's largest wildfire has consumed more than 150 square miles and shows no sign of burning itself out. Hundreds of firefighters are trying to hold the Clay Springs fire from advancing on the ranching towns of Scipio and Mills on the edge of Utah's west desert. The fire has destroyed one summer home and threatens 75 others. The fire was 48 percent contained on Sunday.

— Montana: Crews in eastern Montana strengthened fire lines overnight on a 246-square-mile complex of blazes burning about 10 miles west of Lame Deer. More than 500 firefighters are now at the lightning-caused fires that started Monday and have destroyed more than 30 structures.

— Wyoming: A wind-driven wildfire in a sparsely populated area of southeastern Wyoming was burning across more than 100 square miles.

— Idaho: Firefighters in eastern Idaho had the 1,038-acre Charlotte fire 80 percent contained Sunday but remained cautious with a forecast of high winds and hot temperatures that could put hundreds of homes at risk.

— Colorado: The last evacuees from the High Park Fire in northern Colorado have been allowed to return home as crews fully contained the blaze. The 136-square-mile fire killed one resident and destroyed 259 houses, a state record until the fire near Colorado Springs.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I don't know what the ENSO was doing in January 1997 but we had one very odd winter event that month. I guess the opposite of the heatwave going on now. Some of these scenes became all too familiar a few years later but this was different.


ICE STORM 1997

Mark David Roth*
National Weather Service
Lake Charles, LA

About the Lake Charles County Warning Area (CWA)

Lake Charles is located in extreme southwestern Louisiana, about 30 miles east of the Sabine River which divides the states of Louisiana and Texas. Being at a latitude of 30 degrees north and near the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, significant winter precipitation events are uncommon along the coast, but become more common in central and northern sections of the state. Extreme winter events such as blizzards are virtually unknown to almost everyone in the area. This makes any accumulation of snow, sleet, or freezing rain a major hazard, as snowplows and other de-icing equipment are nowhere to be found throughout Louisiana and the public has little experience with wintery situations.

Effects of the Ice Storm

A quarter inch of ice accumulated primarily on grassy and non-paved surfaces, with an inch accumulating on higher, more exposed surfaces such as trees and power lines. This storm left around 3/4 of the area between Beaumont, TX and Lake Charles, LA powerless. Power outages were noted at far west as Houston and Galveston, in some cases for as many as 5 days.

Images from Beaumont Enterprise





yep that event really sucked......
You won't want to miss my next post, scheduled for 2:30 pm EDT Monday.

Jeff Masters
i think you guys are over exagerating the strength of the upcoming el nino. it should be declared in late august early september. the atmosphre howver is still neutral so this season should be slightly above normal
Hurricane Daniel in the making.

Quoting MTWX:
For those of you still following the fires in the West, here are a few of the "biggies"...

— Utah: Fire commanders say Utah's largest wildfire has consumed more than 150 square miles and shows no sign of burning itself out. Hundreds of firefighters are trying to hold the Clay Springs fire from advancing on the ranching towns of Scipio and Mills on the edge of Utah's west desert. The fire has destroyed one summer home and threatens 75 others. The fire was 48 percent contained on Sunday.

— Montana: Crews in eastern Montana strengthened fire lines overnight on a 246-square-mile complex of blazes burning about 10 miles west of Lame Deer. More than 500 firefighters are now at the lightning-caused fires that started Monday and have destroyed more than 30 structures.

— Wyoming: A wind-driven wildfire in a sparsely populated area of southeastern Wyoming was burning across more than 100 square miles.

— Idaho: Firefighters in eastern Idaho had the 1,038-acre Charlotte fire 80 percent contained Sunday but remained cautious with a forecast of high winds and hot temperatures that could put hundreds of homes at risk.

— Colorado: The last evacuees from the High Park Fire in northern Colorado have been allowed to return home as crews fully contained the blaze. The 136-square-mile fire killed one resident and destroyed 259 houses, a state record until the fire near Colorado Springs.

this is going to turn out to be one very destructive spring season alright,fires,bad storms,power out for thousands,flooding,what else is going to happen gee
With a cold PDO, the El Nino this year will not be a strong one. Weak to moderate at the most. I think we will have between 14 to 16 named storms with 3 to 5 majors and a couple hurricanes will make landfall in the United States.
Quoting Patrap:
You won't want to miss my next post, scheduled for 2:30 pm EDT Monday.

Jeff Masters



i think he is going to invite us all over to his house for bbq on the 4th...
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Rise in sea level can't be stopped, scientists say

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/01/climate -sealevel-idUSL6E8HSIDA20120701

By Nina Chestney

LONDON, July 1 (Reuters) - Rising sea levels cannot be stopped over the next several hundred years, even if deep emissions cuts lower global average temperatures, but they can be slowed down, climate scientists said in a study on Sunday.
our grandchildren are going to have to face this I am afraid,dont know what our coastlines are going to look like a hundred years from now,hopefully they wont be suffering, and im sure the weather will be changing also for them
The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 1.5ºC
Today's CPC update has Nino 3.4 crossing an important milestone and that is the +0.5C line of El Nino. Actually,is up to +0.6C.

Link

Thank goodness this El Nino won't mimic 2009. That year featured an October heatwave in Florida! With temps in the mid-upper 90's and dewpoints in the mid-upper 70's!!!

I think 2006 is a more perfect analog for this Autumn in Florida.
Quoting RitaEvac:
1-3 inches of rain over 3 days in parts of SE TX
thats good news, I know you folks needed that rain badly
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Rise in sea level can't be stopped, scientists say

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/01/climate -sealevel-idUSL6E8HSIDA20120701

By Nina Chestney

LONDON, July 1 (Reuters) - Rising sea levels cannot be stopped over the next several hundred years, even if deep emissions cuts lower global average temperatures, but they can be slowed down, climate scientists said in a study on Sunday.
no.sign.of.it.here.in.e.cen.fl
ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*

• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are increasingly above average in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

• The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific reflects cool-to-neutral ENSO conditions.
Quoting weatherbro:
Thank goodness this El Nino won't mimic 2009. That year featured an October heatwave in Florida! With temps in the mid-upper 90's and dewpoints in the mid-upper 70's!!!

I think 2006 is a more perfect analog for this Autumn in Florida.


More like 1997. I remember it getting well into the 40's late in October in 1997 for night time lows with highs only of 70. It really does look like very strong El-Nino is on tap.
I actually say that possible Daniel can reach cat 3 intensity.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*

• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are increasingly above average in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

• The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific reflects cool-to-neutral ENSO conditions.
HEY..Hiya Stormtracker..good to see you back around here once again..how's the baby doing?..hope everything is going great for you and the family!!
OMG...the part in that audio reading of "Our Angry Earth," from 2:50 to 3:10 is insane.

Nobody ever talks about those pollution incidents at all in the U.S.
Quoting LargoFl:
HEY..Hiya Stormtracker..good to see you back around here once again..how's the baby doing?..hope everything is going great for you and the family!!


Baby is doing great! Thanks for asking.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Baby is doing great! Thanks for asking.
thats great..enjoy!!..man I remember those days like it was yesterday..take alot of pics..they grow up REAL fast
Quoting LargoFl:


Huge wave about to exit Africa!
102 allancalderini: I actually say that possible Daniel can reach cat 3 intensity.

Well actually, Daniel can reach Cat.6 status. The probability of it doing so closely approximates zero:
For one thing, it would require NOAA-NWS-NHC to agree to revise the Saffir-Simpson scale.

In other words, don't predict hurricane-intensities of TropicalCyclones that are yet to be.
I hope that we don't have a terrible fire season come summer 2013 like what we had in 1998. El-Nino yes brings a tremendous amount of rain in the fall, winter, and spring but May and June can be very dry/hot around here once A strong El-nino weakens.
The Aussies will be releasing their monthly ENSO forecast update tomorrow morning. I will post it when it comes out and has some very good discussions as to the current model trends. Here is their outlook from last month:

Tropical Pacific warming continues
Issued on Tuesday 19 June | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Although climate indicators remain at neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) levels, the tropical Pacific continues to slowly warm. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this warming trend will continue over the coming months, with the majority of the models indicating the tropical Pacific will approach or possibly exceed El Niño thresholds by the end of winter. No climate models favour a return to La Niña during the remainder of 2012.

Large parts of eastern Australia are usually, but not always, drier than normal in winter and spring during El Niño events.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The Bureau’s climate model indicates a possibility of a weak positive IOD event developing during winter or spring.

Next update expected by 3 July 2012 | print version


Will be interesting to see what tomorrow's update looks like.
The Atlantic is naked. Put some clothes on, dude:

77 MontanaZephyr: Rise in sea level can't be stopped, scientists say...
lol
Quoting MississippiWx:
The Atlantic is naked. Put some clothes on, dude:

Quoting LargoFl:

Big waves will continue to roll off until end of September as usual. Nothing will develope in the MDR until mid August. If anything develops it will wait until it gets past 60 west. Big waves always look ominous while on land in Africa, once they hit the water this time of the year they most always collapse, the further they wait to develope spells bad news for the CONUS tho
Quoting MississippiWx:
The Atlantic is naked. Put some clothes on, dude:



Here you go. I got him dressed for you.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Today's CPC update has Nino 3.4 crossing an important milestone and that is the +0.5C line of El Nino. Actually,is up to +0.6C.

Link



Hey, TA13. Still holding on to your 0.8C peak? :-)
Quoting aspectre:
102 allancalderini: I actually say that possible Daniel can reach cat 3 intensity.

Well actually, Daniel can reach Cat.6 status. The probability of it doing so closely approximates zero:
For one thing, it would require Commerce-NOAA-NWS-NHC to agree to revise the Saffir-Simpson scale.

In other words, don't predict hurricane-intensities of TropicalCyclones that are yet to be.


no such thing as cat 6 bro
also quit the fear-mongering please
thank you
Quoting hydrus:
I wonder. 97-98 was pretty big.


Yup 97 was huge,just about destroyed Northern California.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Here you go. I got him dressed for you.



That's like bringing a medium to put on Rosie O'Donnell. Come on man, she's busting at the seams.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey, TA13. Still holding on to your 0.8C peak? :-)


I am not Tx13 but I ask you looking well ahead,do you see the 2013 Atlantic season very inactive?
Post 123
We cannot see you there, Gro...
You appear to be Shrouded in Gloom.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I am not Tx13 but I ask you looking well ahead,do you see the 2013 Atlantic season very inactive?


I know, I was quoting that to show him my reference. Doesn't appear that he's on here anymore.

But that's hard to say at this point. We need to see when El Nino peaks and just how strong it gets. We also need to see if its more of a Modoki variety. Anyway, a lot of the climate models bring us back down to very weak El Nino/warm-neutral conditions by next year. All of that is speculation at this point. Still a lot of questions to be answered.
Quoting pottery:
Post 123
We cannot see you there, Gro...
You appear to be Shrouded in Gloom.


OOOPS..
At a glance, I thought I was looking at Europe.

Sorry!
Wondering if Dr. M's 2:30 post is related to GW, recent heat wave related anomalies, or, his tropical outlook for the remainder of the Atlantic season......... :)
Quoting reedzone:
I disagree that we're gonna have just an average season. We've already had 3 named storms, one Hurricane.. I'm expecting 13-15 named storms total. El Nino or not, this will most likely be a bit of an active season with some landfalling storms.


Just have to be careful with that, Allan. As with tornado/severe seasons, there is only a weak correlation at best between early early season numbers and the final end-of-season result.
July 1, 2012 – CANARY ISLANDS - The pressure of the magma detected in El Hierro has caused in the past four days on the island deformation of four to five inches vertically and three to four horizontal, as reported by the Security Directorate of the Canary Islands. The energy released has reached 420,000 million joules, a fact which, together with the ground deformation evidence magmatic process acceleration on the Canary Island, where there is an inflation process is centered in the area which earthquakes occur. The General Directorate of Security, who coordinates the Civil Protection Plan Risk Volcanic Islands, said that since the beginning were found in magmatic process, last Sunday, have occurred in El Hierro over 750 earthquakes. The earthquake with greater magnitude of 4.0 degrees on the Richter scale occurred on Wednesday at 18.55 hours in the Sea of Calm, 2 km from the coast and 20 kilometers deep. The seismic activity began in the Sea of the Gulf (north of El Hierro) and then move to the center of the island, coinciding with the point of intersection of the ridges, to subsequently migrate to the west. From noon on June 25 the seismicity is concentrated in an area that includes the west and the dorsal side of the Julan, and from 1200 hours on June 27 the focus of the earthquake begins to migrate towards the Sea of Calm.

Link


Quoting hydrus:
I wonder. 97-98 was pretty big.


It's when Hurricane Linda was forecast to hit Soo Cal as a Tropical Storm with like 50kts Gusting to 65kts due to warm waters off off California. Linda was strongest recorded Eastern Pacific Hurricane on record with a 902mb pressure.
I have a question for the community, it's not relevant to weather, but I need sort of an oppinion or personal observation sort of thing.


I just got an iPhone about a month and a half ago, and there is a hidden fee on my bill of $20.00 for a "Data Plan". I had specifically requested the absolute cheapest package on the phone, and even refused text messaging, I just wanted to be able to make calls and to have a "Smartphone" to use as a portable computer. I cannot stand cloud computing or server side data storage, and did not want such a service at all.


I called their billing service through AT&T and the representative informed me that, "All smartphones require a data plan to operate."

I call BS, because it's a computer. It has it's own processor and RAM, and should be fully functional in and of itself. I requested that they have no data plan, because I do not want to pay for server side memory that I'm not using anyway.

If the company is charging me $20.00 per month just to "download or upload" 300mb per month, or maybe it's talking about storage of 300mb, that is outrageous scalping either way... 300mb fits on half of one CD-RW that costs a few cents.

Why would I spend $20.00 per month to maintain just 300mb worth of storage?

Or why would I spend $20.00 per month for 300mb worth of downloads, when I have a land line cable modem on my computer which has unlimited downloads and uploads?


There is something criminally suspicious about this billing system.

Basically, the representative said I was required to pay $20.00 per month for the service for the phone to work at all, even though I'm not using and refuse to use the service it is labelled as on the bill!!!

The bill has two categories, one is the "Rate Plan" which is what I was told it would be, but then under "Other services" it has "Dataplus" for $20.00...so why is a "required" fee listed as an "other service" with a "Dataplus" for it's name, as though it is something "extra"?!

That's a ripoff.

Do competing smartphones from other brands, such as Android, have more fair billing? Or is it possible to switch my iPhone to another provider besides AT&T, because their billing is outrageous?

At this rate, the billing for the service will pay for the phone itself every two months...and I only made two calls on it last month. I got it for emergency and convenience.

---

For goodness sake, if you refresh this blog a few dozen times, you'll use up 300mb of data...that's nothing...
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
926 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

GAZ132>136-149>154-162-163-030000-
/O.CON.KJAX.EH.W.0004.120702T1600Z-120703T0000Z/
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOUGLAS...HAZLEHURST...ALMA...BAXLEY...
JESUP...PEARSON...WAYCROSS...BLACKSHEAR...NAHUNTA ...BRUNSWICK...
STATENVILLE...HOMERVILLE
926 AM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS AROUND 100. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES 113
TO 118.

* IMPACTS...CHILDREN AND PETS SHOULD NEVER BE LEFT UNATTENDED IN
VEHICLES UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
DURING WARM OR HOT WEATHER WHEN CAR INTERIORS CAN REACH LETHAL
TEMPERATURES IN A MATTER OF MINUTES. BEAT THE HEAT...CHECK THE
BACKSEAT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...
AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES...NEIGHBORS AND PETS.

&&

$$
Quoting sunlinepr:
July 1, 2012 – CANARY ISLANDS - The pressure of the magma detected in El Hierro has caused in the past four days on the island deformation of four to five inches vertically and three to four horizontal, as reported by the Security Directorate of the Canary Islands. The energy released has reached 420,000 million joules, a fact which, together with the ground deformation evidence magmatic process acceleration on the Canary Island, where there is an inflation process is centered in the area which earthquakes occur. The General Directorate of Security, who coordinates the Civil Protection Plan Risk Volcanic Islands, said that since the beginning were found in magmatic process, last Sunday, have occurred in El Hierro over 750 earthquakes. The earthquake with greater magnitude of 4.0 degrees on the Richter scale occurred on Wednesday at 18.55 hours in the Sea of Calm, 2 km from the coast and 20 kilometers deep. The seismic activity began in the Sea of the Gulf (north of El Hierro) and then move to the center of the island, coinciding with the point of intersection of the ridges, to subsequently migrate to the west. From noon on June 25 the seismicity is concentrated in an area that includes the west and the dorsal side of the Julan, and from 1200 hours on June 27 the focus of the earthquake begins to migrate towards the Sea of Calm.

Link




Is this the one thats going to cause a Tidal Wave all the way across the atlantic when it breaks in half?
El Nino is basically here folks. Since the CPC normally averages out a 3 month period of El Nino/La Nina conditions, it might be August until they officially declare El Nino. However, it could come before then if they feel conditions warrant. I've been saying August for some time and I still feel that is a good forecast. Lag time will be minimal to non-existent considering the SOI has been right with the anomalies the entire time. A lot of variables still exist, such as type of El Nino and length. However, I think it is safe to say that El Nino will impact the peak of our hurricane season and limit its devastating capabilities. As we have said all along, it just takes one hurricane to ruin you so stay prepared.

As far as strength of the El Nino, that is up to debate. However, recent trends might make one believe that a strong El Nino is a real possibility. I've been banking on the 1.2C-1.5C range at peak. The CFS model wants us to be at 2.0C above average by peak. The Euro has been in the strong camp all along. We still have a lot of questions to be answered.



Quoting pottery:
Post 123
We cannot see you there, Gro...
You appear to be Shrouded in Gloom.


Gloom & doom. Just thought you would all like those colors. Doc Masters has me intrigued with the last line on his blog. Gee, I wonder what it could be...?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is this the one thats going to cause a Tidal Wave all the way across the atlantic when it breaks in half?
oh boy i was watching a science channel thing on volcano's etc..one of the epic explosions and magma flow AND tidal wave came from that area when it happens..timing unknown they said,could be today could be years away but..they are watching that area closely


Look at the towers in her feeder bands!!! WOW
1. Expected 2012 activity

Climate signals and evolving oceanic and atmospheric conditions, combined with dynamical model forecasts, indicate that a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is most likely. This outlook calls for a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below normal season.

An important measure of the total overall seasonal activity is NOAA’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the intensity and duration of named storms and hurricanes during the season. This outlook indicates a 70% chance that the 2012 seasonal ACE range will be 65%-140% of the median. According to NOAA’s hurricane season classifications, an ACE value above 111% of the 1981-2010 median reflects an above-normal season. An ACE value below 71.4% of the median reflects a below-normal season.

Consistent with the expected ACE range, the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to produce (with 70% probability for each range) 9-15 named storms, of which 4-8 are expected to become hurricanes, and 1-3 are expected to become major hurricanes. These ranges are centered near the 1981-2010 period averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
hey guys well it is truly dead in the Atlantic side and the MJO is not expected to be back in our area till maybe sometime around 12/16th of this month so because I don't expect anything to happen till then I will be taking a break till maybe the 10th however I may pop in here or there so yeah

oh and the EPac system looks good hey may be coome the next hurricane Linda don't know if anyone of you guys remember that anyway not saying it would or anything close but yeah you know what I mean

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is this the one thats going to cause a Tidal Wave all the way across the atlantic when it breaks in half?


No that one from that video in YT is La Palma... one of the other Canary islands

El Hierro according to scients may had a tsunami many years ago....

134.

Good luck fighting that battle. When you activate a phone on a network, you are pretty much stuck with them. If you just want a portable computer, get a tablet that is wi-fi only.
Quoting LargoFl:
oh boy i was watching a science channel thing on volcano's etc..one of the epic explosions and magma flow AND tidal wave came from that area when it happens..timing unknown they said,could be today could be years away but..they are watching that area closely


Thats the show I saw. They also talking about one or more of the Hawaiian Islands doing the same!!!!!!!!!!! We are doomed!!!!....................LOL
2.1 Million homes STILL without power in this Awful heatwave..........
and also I think in terms of the ENSO and this hurricane season I think it would be nearly spitting image of 2004 and 2008 right I am out of here bye guys
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Look at the towers in her feeder bands!!! WOW. Even her CDO looks kinda bumpy?? Or are towers ony allowed in the CDO? Just askin
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Thats the show I saw. They also talking about one or more of the Hawaiian Islands doing the same!!!!!!!!!!! We are doomed!!!!....................LOL
..at some point in time..things are going to get real bad in this world..remember what they predicted when the west coast fault line finally goes...this will be a very different world for sure when that happens
151. jeffB

Quoting RTSplayer:
I just got an iPhone about a month and a half ago, and there is a hidden fee on my bill of $20.00 for a "Data Plan". I had specifically requested the absolute cheapest package on the phone, and even refused text messaging, I just wanted to be able to make calls and to have a "Smartphone" to use as a portable computer. I cannot stand cloud computing or server side data storage, and did not want such a service at all.


I called their billing service through AT&T and the representative informed me that, "All smartphones require a data plan to operate."

I think AT&T makes this requirement abundantly clear. Yes, they make their money on the service plan. If they couldn't count on $60-100/month for the duration of a two-year contract, the phone's price would be closer to $1000.
Didn't you check the bottom-line monthly price before you signed the contract?
RTSplayer
Google:

at t data plan ripoff
Quoting sunlinepr:


No that one from that video in YT is La Palma... one of the other Canary islands

El Hierro according to scients may had a tsunami many years ago....



You are correct! They said like a 200 foot wave? or was it bigger?
Quoting LargoFl:
..at some point in time..things are going to get real bad in this world..remember what they predicted when the west coast fault line finally goes...this will be a very different world for sure when that happens


Just depends on what point in time it occurs. Hopefully I be gone!! LOL
Damaging Earthquakes in the USA..1750 to 1996..now i know why..i dont live in California..............Link
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Just depends on what point in time it occurs. Hopefully I be gone!! LOL
yes same here
Quoting jeffs713:
134.

Good luck fighting that battle. When you activate a phone on a network, you are pretty much stuck with them. If you just want a portable computer, get a tablet that is wi-fi only.



I see now.

It's a complete rip.

They're charging an "required" fee for a "service" whether or not you want it and whether or not you use it.

I tried using Google to find cheapest smartphone providers and it's not ATT, it's T-Mobile, but they are allegedly only $10.00 per month cheaper for the total bill on about the same package, but actually have 10% more minutes as well.

So ATT costs 15% more for 10% less product, which makes them actually about 28% more expensive than T-Mobile.


Is there anything in this supposedly "Free" market that isn't designed to rip people at every turn?
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


You are correct! They said like a 200 foot wave? or was it bigger?


No one knows... The only real data we have is the Alaskan mega tsunami....

Uploaded by BBCWorldwide on Aug 18, 2008

Two survivors of a Mega Tsunami tell their stories of the day the 1/2km high wave hit Lituya Bay.


500 feet high

The story here...

Link
Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey, TA13. Still holding on to your 0.8C peak? :-)

Those are just SST departures. When I meant 0.8C, I was talking about an ONI value peak of 0.8C. The actual weekly numbers will probably surpass 1 C.
Quoting sunlinepr:


No one knows... The only real data we have is the Alaskan mega tsunami....

Uploaded by BBCWorldwide on Aug 18, 2008

Two survivors of a Mega Tsunami tell their stories of the day the 1/2km high wave hit Lituya Bay.


500 feet high

The story here...

Link
can you imagine..a 500 foot wave..my god,if it hit NYC it would wash over ohio lol..funny but not funny..
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is this the one thats going to cause a Tidal Wave all the way across the atlantic when it breaks in half?

gravitational forces are solely responsible for tidal waves, seismic activity causes tsunamis.
Quoting RTSplayer:



I see now.

It's a complete rip.

They're charging an "required" fee for a "service" whether or not you want it and whether or not you use it.


Just remember, the phone price that they give you in the store is not the true price of the device. Most of the high end smartphones are in the $400-600 range these days, easy. The cheaper prices are prices for getting a new contract. That's why if you do not have insurance on your phone and it is damaged, you would have to pay that full price and with it being quite a bit higher than a somewhat already high amount, it can be major sticker shock to many.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Just depends on what point in time it occurs. Hopefully I be gone!! LOL


Depends also if it is caused by water displacement (mountain sliding into the sea) or by an under water quake...

Quoting RTSplayer:



I called their billing service through AT&T and the representative informed me that, "All smartphones require a data plan to operate."

I call BS, because it's a computer. It has it's own processor and RAM, and should be fully functional in and of itself. I requested that they have no data plan, because I do not want to pay for server side memory that I'm not using anyway.

If the company is charging me $20.00 per month just to "download or upload" 300mb per month, or maybe it's talking about storage of 300mb, that is outrageous scalping either way... 300mb fits on half of one CD-RW that costs a few cents.

Why would I spend $20.00 per month to maintain just 300mb worth of storage?

Or why would I spend $20.00 per month for 300mb worth of downloads, when I have a land line cable modem on my computer which has unlimited downloads and uploads?


There is something criminally suspicious about this billing system.

Basically, the representative said I was required to pay $20.00 per month for the service for the phone to work at all, even though I'm not using and refuse to use the service it is labelled as on the bill!!!

The bill has two categories, one is the "Rate Plan" which is what I was told it would be, but then under "Other services" it has "Dataplus" for $20.00...so why is a "required" fee listed as an "other service" with a "Dataplus" for it's name, as though it is something "extra"?!

That's a ripoff.

Do competing smartphones from other brands, such as Android, have more fair billing? Or is it possible to switch my iPhone to another provider besides AT&T, because their billing is outrageous?


Of course it can work without it. I don't know if you'll find anything better. I live in the UK, and we don't have to get tied to such I have a pay-as-you-go sim on Virgin, if I use it for 'data services' or internet, it's a flat rate of 50p per day. If I don't have enough credit or have the auto updates turned off, it all still works fine, just doesn't commmunicate with whatever the app services are doing for updates or info or whatever. But everything aside from say live maps still works fine! Cell costs in the States are just ridiculous and there to gouge you!

Anyway, that low in the East Pacific, on the last frames of the infrared, looks like it's just starting to get a bit of circulation going!
Quoting sunlinepr:


No one knows... The only real data we have is the Alaskan mega tsunami....

Uploaded by BBCWorldwide on Aug 18, 2008

Two survivors of a Mega Tsunami tell their stories of the day the 1/2km high wave hit Lituya Bay.


500 feet high

The story here...

Link


Right near the source of the wave, the landslide, the wave was actually much higher... try 500 meters (1500ft+).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_Lituya_Bay_mega tsunami
On that science show, they showed how the pacific plate sinks under the usa plate..melts down into magma then at some point resurfaces up thru volcano's etc and makes NEW land..ok..so they are estimating the earth is 400 million years old..my question is this..since all land..has been melted into magma at some point..there would be NO..way to say for sure..using testing on rocks etc..to say just HOW OLD the earth is..its been melted, renewed and melted again so many times in the past no?..man the field of geology is so interesting to me..i only wish when i was a young man..that i would have had this interest back then..and went into this field of work, man i would have loved that
i know this is off topic but i think t-mobile should join the iphone like boost mobile and cricket did t-mobile is slacking
Quoting MississippiWx:
El Nino is basically here folks. Since the CPC normally averages out a 3 month period of El Nino/La Nina conditions, it might be August until they officially declare El Nino. However, it could come before then if they feel conditions warrant. I've been saying August for some time and I still feel that is a good forecast. Lag time will be minimal to non-existent considering the SOI has been right with the anomalies the entire time. A lot of variables still exist, such as type of El Nino and length. However, I think it is safe to say that El Nino will impact the peak of our hurricane season and limit its devastating capabilities. As we have said all along, it just takes one hurricane to ruin you so stay prepared.

As far as strength of the El Nino, that is up to debate. However, recent trends might make one believe that a strong El Nino is a real possibility. I've been banking on the 1.2C-1.5C range at peak. The CFS model wants us to be at 2.0C above average by peak. The Euro has been in the strong camp all along. We still have a lot of questions to be answered.




Thanks Dr Masters...Good afternoon everyone. This will not be good for the Caribbean, hopefully we'll not see another 2009/2010.
Quoting LargoFl:
Damaging Earthquakes in the USA..1750 to 1996..now i know why..i dont live in California..............Link


I have gotton used to them. Had a 5.5 about 15 miles east of me a couple of years back,big jolt a some shimmering

2010 07 07 235333.53 33.42 -116.49 14 5.5 MwGS
Quoting sunlinepr:


No one knows... The only real data we have is the Alaskan mega tsunami....

Uploaded by BBCWorldwide on Aug 18, 2008

Two survivors of a Mega Tsunami tell their stories of the day the 1/2km high wave hit Lituya Bay.


500 feet high

The story here...

Link


WOW!!!!!!
@HurricanHunterJoe
@LargoFl
Not a Tidal Wave - these happen (in some bays) daily, caused by the moon's gravity on the oceans.
Earthquakes and Landslides cause Tsunamis - MUCH bigger than tidal waves. Sunlinepr is right - the recent volcanic Tsunami publicity has been about Cumbre Vieja and La Palma in the Canary Islands, not this volcano. Many other volcanos have in the past have had collapses &/or landslides causing massive waves, including Hawaii (the big island, from flank collapse of Mauna Loa) and Mt. Etna.
Quoting sunlinepr:
July 1, 2012 – CANARY ISLANDS - The pressure of the magma detected in El Hierro has caused in the past four days on the island deformation of four to five inches vertically and three to four horizontal, as reported by the Security Directorate of the Canary Islands. The energy released has reached 420,000 million joules, a fact which, together with the ground deformation evidence magmatic process acceleration on the Canary Island, where there is an inflation process is centered in the area which earthquakes occur. The General Directorate of Security, who coordinates the Civil Protection Plan Risk Volcanic Islands, said that since the beginning were found in magmatic process, last Sunday, have occurred in El Hierro over 750 earthquakes. The earthquake with greater magnitude of 4.0 degrees on the Richter scale occurred on Wednesday at 18.55 hours in the Sea of Calm, 2 km from the coast and 20 kilometers deep. The seismic activity began in the Sea of the Gulf (north of El Hierro) and then move to the center of the island, coinciding with the point of intersection of the ridges, to subsequently migrate to the west. From noon on June 25 the seismicity is concentrated in an area that includes the west and the dorsal side of the Julan, and from 1200 hours on June 27 the focus of the earthquake begins to migrate towards the Sea of Calm.

Link






Quoting jeffB:

I think AT&T makes this requirement abundantly clear. Yes, they make their money on the service plan. If they couldn't count on $60-100/month for the duration of a two-year contract, the phone's price would be closer to $1000.
Didn't you check the bottom-line monthly price before you signed the contract?


Technically, I was deceived, because I was told in the office that the price was going to be X amount per month, the data plan was not mentioned verbally.

It's true that I personally, foolishly did not look at the printout I have now, because I don't know, I wasn't thinking clearly and wasn't thinking about hidden fees. I know I made it abundantly clear that I wanted the cheapest possible plan, and no extras at all.



You realize I'd never work for ATT?

After seeing this that they did to that other guy you find when googling "ATT data plan rip off," I could not in good conscience work for them for any amount of money. They charged him automatically, without consent and without a contract at all.

The sales representative deceived me about the billing policy, and I was distracted enough that I didn't read the copy of the contract close enough to see what it really costed. I probably thought this was going to be a one time fee as part of activation, not a $20.00 per month fee...I would not have paid that much for a phone if I knew they were going to charge that much more as a hidden fee every month.

That's $240.00 per year. I could pay 6 months worth of my cable internet just for the price of that "Data Plan".
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I have gotton used to them. Had a 5.5 about 15 miles east of me a couple of years back,big jolt a some shimmering

2010 07 07 235333.53 33.42 -116.49 14 5.5 MwGS
gee doesnt that scare you?..i'd be packing my bags right after it lol..this guy does not..like the earth moving under his feet lol
Quoting sunlinepr:
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


Just depends on what point in time it occurs. Hopefully I be gone!! LOL


Depends also if it is caused by water displacement (mountain sliding into the sea) or by an under water quake...



megatsunami's I believe arn't technically tsunami's but ordinary beach waves. Only 1,000,000 times more massive!!! Some estamites have the Liturga wave cresting and breaking at over 1,500-1,700 feet high!!!
Did you know..Florida has many..Underwater Musuems?.exploring these could be a great vacation idea if your into scuba etc..just found this map as i was looking up those supposed underwater cities in the caribbean some guy emailed me about..said 12,000 years ago the water was much lower than it is today..many many miles out from where the shoreline is today..hmm i dont believe it but..you never know
Researchers to announce evidence of ‘God particle’ that explains universe

‘God particle’
The "God particle" is the nickname of a subatomic particle called the Higgs boson. In layman’s terms, different subatomic particles are responsible for giving matter different properties. One of the most mysterious and important properties is mass. Some particles, like protons and neutrons, have mass. Others, like photons, do not. The Higgs boson, or “God particle,” is believed to be the particle which gives mass to matter

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Right near the source of the wave, the landslide, the wave was actually much higher... try 500 meters (1500ft+).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_Lituya_Bay_mega tsunami


yes, Landslide driven tsunamis work more like meteor driven tsunamis, rather than earthquake tsunamis.

It's a bit like tossing a large rock into a pond at a 45 degree angle, and some of the water "splashes" in a continuous wave in the direction of motion, the wedging action driving the wave forward at very great heights relative to the amount of mass originally involved in the impact.
I haven't been here for a few days. What's up
I guess Im earthquake prone,have lived in Soo Cal since I was 10 in 1966,guess that tells how old I am!! LOL. Anyway I was in the Great Alaska earthquake of 1964,which was I believe 9.2. My dad was stationed at Elmendorf AFB in Anchorage. Don't remember much other than my dad chasing the chair i was in across the room and then we held on for dear life! As far as California is concerned Ireally dont get bothered by anything under Magnitude 6. The worst I can remember from my location is the Landers Quake out in the desert,cant remember the year now,it just had a moderate shake,no jolts,but it kept going and going,seemed like minutes but was probably 30 seconds,thats kinda scary,cus you are expecting a big jolt, which never came thank goodness. Kinda like being on one of those vibrating beds except its your whole house shaking not the bed...lol
Quoting RTSplayer:


Technically, I was deceived, because I was told in the office that the price was going to be X amount per month, the data plan was not mentioned verbally.

It's true that I personally, foolishly did not look at the printout I have now, because I don't know, I wasn't thinking clearly and wasn't thinking about hidden fees. I know I made it abundantly clear that I wanted the cheapest possible plan, and no extras at all.



You realize I'd never work for ATT?

After seeing this that they did to that other guy you find when googling "ATT data plan rip off," I could not in good conscience work for them for any amount of money. They charged him automatically, without consent and without a contract at all.

The sales representative deceived me about the billing policy, and I was distracted enough that I didn't read the copy of the contract close enough to see what it really costed. I probably thought this was going to be a one time fee as part of activation, not a $20.00 per month fee...I would not have paid that much for a phone if I knew they were going to charge that much more as a hidden fee every month.

That's $240.00 per year. I could pay 6 months worth of my cable internet just for the price of that "Data Plan".
Wow that is a ripoff! Another company not to go to is Sprint. They tried to rip us off and slip fees in our bill for stuff we werent even using like the web. Anyway the coverage for Sprint and AT&T is terrible. Go to Verizon they have the best coverage around. Even though it will cost you more.
Quoting pipelines:

gravitational forces are solely responsible for tidal waves, seismic activity causes tsunamis.


You are correct!
Oops typo - Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma island has been studied for its collapse/Tsunami threat
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Those are just SST departures. When I meant 0.8C, I was talking about an ONI value peak of 0.8C. The actual weekly numbers will probably surpass 1 �C.


Uh huh. Likely story. :-)
Tormentas Del Caribe julio 2, 2012



Caribbean Storm Update July 2, 2012




Source
Link
Can you let me know if the video caused any problems with the blog?,a friend told me how to post without causing problems
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I guess Im earthquake prone,have lived in Soo Cal since I was 10 in 1966,guess that tells how old I am!! LOL. Anyway I was in the Great Alaska earthquake of 1964,which was I believe 9.2. My dad was stationed at Elmendorf AFB in Anchorage. Don't remember much other than my dad chasing the chair i was in across the room and then we held on for dear life! As far as California is concerned Ireally dont get bothered by anything under Magnitude 6. The worst I can remember from my location is the Landers Quake out in the desert,cant remember the year now,it just had a moderate shake,no jolts,but it kept going and going,seemed like minutes but was probably 30 seconds,thats kinda scary,cus you are expecting a big jolt, which never came thank goodness. Kinda like being on one of those vibrating beds except its your whole house shaking not the bed...lol
Remind me not to live in Alaska or California. I prefer my house furniture to not vibrate across the room.
I could not spell Tsunami off the top of my head so I put in tidal wave..........my bad.......lol
Quoting LargoFl:
On that science show, they showed how the pacific plate sinks under the usa plate..melts down into magma then at some point resurfaces up thru volcano's etc and makes NEW land..ok..so they are estimating the earth is 400 million years old..my question is this..since all land..has been melted into magma at some point..there would be NO..way to say for sure..using testing on rocks etc..to say just HOW OLD the earth is..its been melted, renewed and melted again so many times in the past no?..man the field of geology is so interesting to me..i only wish when i was a young man..that i would have had this interest back then..and went into this field of work, man i would have loved that


When continents collide mountains form, though some of the material make it back to the surface.



The oldest such minerals analyzed to date – small crystals of zircon from the Jack Hills of Western Australia – are at least 4.404 billion years old.[5][6][7] Comparing the mass and luminosity of the Sun to the multitudes of other stars, it appears that the solar system cannot be much older than those rocks. Ca-Al-rich inclusions (inclusions rich in calcium and aluminium) – the oldest known solid constituents within meteorites that are formed within the solar system – are 4.567 billion years old,[8][9] giving an age for the solar system and an upper limit for the age of Earth.
It is hypothesised that the accretion of Earth began soon after the formation of the Ca-Al-rich inclusions and the meteorites. Because the exact accretion time of Earth is not yet known, and the predictions from different accretion models range from a few millions up to about 100 million years, the exact age of Earth is difficult to determine. It is also difficult to determine the exact age of the oldest rocks on Earth, exposed at the surface, as they are aggregates of minerals of possibly different ages.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_the_Earth
Quoting MississippiWx:


Uh huh. Likely story. :-)

I know. :(
Quoting Articuno:
I haven't been here for a few days. What's up
outside of the heatwave and midlantic storms its been quiet so far
Quoting nigel20:
Researchers to announce evidence of ‘God particle’ that explains universe

‘God particle’
The "God particle" is the nickname of a subatomic particle called the Higgs boson. In layman’s terms, different subatomic particles are responsible for giving matter different properties. One of the most mysterious and important properties is mass. Some particles, like protons and neutrons, have mass. Others, like photons, do not. The Higgs boson, or “God particle,” is believed to be the particle which gives mass to matter




Assuming it does exist, building a facility capable of actually isolating the particle and studying it's fundamental properties to ensure it meets all of the assumptions about it will probably be quite more expensive.

If some property is off by any significant amount, then that would imply yet ANOTHER unknown, hidden particle, or family of particles, to explain that deviation, and so on...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
and also I think in terms of the ENSO and this hurricane season I think it would be nearly spitting image of 2004 and 2008 right I am out of here bye guys


This year is nothing like 2004. At this time during 2004, we still had cold anomalies dominating the Eastern Pacific.



And I'm not sure where 2008 fits into this mix considering 2008 was a La Nina year.

be careful out there folks............SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
449 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022- MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-022330-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY -VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-M CCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIG G-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCL EAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNE ETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...C AIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLI NTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITH LAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON.. .MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON.. .OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARB LE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
449 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THIS WEEK...

DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT...PARCHED GRASSLANDS AND FOREST FUELS
REMAIN VULNERABLE TO FIRE. THE EXCEPTION IS WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
OCCURRED IN THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...PRIMARILY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU TO PADUCAH AND MADISONVILLE. FOUR INCHES OF
RAIN WAS REPORTED NEAR SHAWNEETOWN ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY. JUST A FEW
MILES AWAY IN HARDIN COUNTY...THERE HAS BEEN LESS THAN FOUR INCHES
OF RAIN SINCE APRIL. MOST LOCATIONS ARE OVER A FOOT OF RAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE YEAR.

TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL REMAIN COMMON OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS WILL FURTHER DRY
OUT WOODS AND FIELDS. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT WINDS...BUT FIRES CAN STILL SPREAD QUICKLY IN TINDER DRY
FUELS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH OF THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAY
AGAIN PROVIDE LOCALIZED RELIEF.

MANY COMMUNITIES AND COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY HAVE BURN BANS
IN PLACE. IN ADDITION...FIREWORKS ARE BANNED IN SOME AREAS UNTIL
THE DROUGHT EASES.

THROWING A CIGARETTE OUT A CAR WINDOW OR IGNITING FIREWORKS COULD
START A WILDFIRE. SOME FIELD FIRES WERE STARTED OVER SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LIGHTNING AND DOWNED POWER LINES.
FIRE DANGER THROUGH THIS 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WILL BE VERY HIGH.

$$

MY
Debbie moved out of Florida and took all the rain with it. No rain forcasted till thursday or friday :(
Quoting VINNY04:
Debbie moved out of Florida and took all the rain with it. No rain forcasted till thursday or friday :(


You get no sympathy from me. It has rained one time here in 2 months. Thankfully, we had a surplus in rain earlier in the year or else we would be in a serious drought.
Hey Vinny04 we have thunderstorms building just to my north over northern Lake and SE Marion County. These storms could become strong to severe giving the heat energy in place. The forecast was for a 0% chance of rain I guess they forget it's July.
Rogue waves are the thing to look for since they are also believed to reach upwards to 2,000 feet before breaking(and not all of them have been out at sea either)!
Quoting RTSplayer:



I see now.

It's a complete rip.

They're charging an "required" fee for a "service" whether or not you want it and whether or not you use it.

I tried using Google to find cheapest smartphone providers and it's not ATT, it's T-Mobile, but they are allegedly only $10.00 per month cheaper for the total bill on about the same package, but actually have 10% more minutes as well.

So ATT costs 15% more for 10% less product, which makes them actually about 28% more expensive than T-Mobile.


Is there anything in this supposedly "Free" market that isn't designed to rip people at every turn?

Free Market does not mean the consumers get the best deal, necessarily. It means the market is free of government intervention. Corporations are perfectly free to screw you over.
The best analogue for this hurricane season is 2002, albeit the final numbers this year (both tropical cyclone/storm and hurricane/major hurricane) will likely be higher thanks to Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, and the return of above average vertical instability across the Gulf, Caribbean, and off the East Coast.
Quoting MississippiWx:


This year is nothing like 2004. At this time during 2004, we still had cold anomalies dominating the Eastern Pacific.



And I'm not sure where 2008 fits into this mix considering 2008 was a La Nina year.


Hey Mississippi...Do you think that the impending el nino will be like 2006/2007 or more like 2009/2010? We (Jamaica) suffered significant losses in the agricultural sector, as a result of the extreme drought brought upon by the 20009/2010 el nino...i'm sure that the Caribbean would have suffered similar losses in the said period.


I felt both of these. the 6.5 was a jolt and little shake but over quickly. the 7.3 shook for a long time. Im about 50 miles SSW of both of them.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





Quoting MississippiWx:


This year is nothing like 2004. At this time during 2004, we still had cold anomalies dominating the Eastern Pacific.



And I'm not sure where 2008 fits into this mix considering 2008 was a La Nina year.


He's naming off years that had major hurricane impacts for the CONUS and Cayman Islands.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Hey Vinny04 we have thunderstorms building just to my north over northern Lake and SE Marion County. These storms could become strong to severe giving the heat energy in place. The forecast was for a 0% chance of rain I guess they forget it's July.
yes i think your right
Got some poppers building.


Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I guess Im earthquake prone,have lived in Soo Cal since I was 10 in 1966,guess that tells how old I am!! LOL. Anyway I was in the Great Alaska earthquake of 1964,which was I believe 9.2. My dad was stationed at Elmendorf AFB in Anchorage. Don't remember much other than my dad chasing the chair i was in across the room and then we held on for dear life! As far as California is concerned Ireally dont get bothered by anything under Magnitude 6. The worst I can remember from my location is the Landers Quake out in the desert,cant remember the year now,it just had a moderate shake,no jolts,but it kept going and going,seemed like minutes but was probably 30 seconds,thats kinda scary,cus you are expecting a big jolt, which never came thank goodness. Kinda like being on one of those vibrating beds except its your whole house shaking not the bed...lol


Wow! The Alaska quake. I was in a 6.4 in Seattle in 1965.

The Seattle quake started off as a "sound". It sounded like Hitler's army was coming. We thought we were under attack. That was the scary part.

I can't imagine the Alaska quake.
I would reply to your comment by quoting you StormTracker2k but my computer wont let me quote your comment. Send some of your rain this way. My mowing business needs some of it.

Up to 30%.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Quoting LargoFl:
yes i think your right


Not everybody will get rain today but it sure is a good sign to see things getting back to what we had in June which was nearly a record maker rainfall wise around here. Most inland location here had 10" to 15" for June. The monthly average was 7.37"
Code Orange.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Got some poppers building.


Thats Indiana right?
...gulf water is cooking now, first storm goes in there and BOOM
Quoting VINNY04:
Thats Indiana right?

Nope, FL.
Quoting LargoFl:
...gulf water is cooking now, first storm goes in there and BOOM


Storm may go there,but it all depends on how the upper level winds are at that time.
Quoting LargoFl:
...gulf water is cooking now, first storm goes in there and BOOM
Wow that is great for storms! Now we need to just covince one to form there.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Storm may go there,but it all depends on how the upper level winds are at that time.
yeah thats true
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Code Orange.


This looks like it could turn into a beast...that won't effect anyone
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Mississippi...Do you think that the impending el nino will be like 2006/2007 or more like 2009/2010? We (Jamaica) suffered significant losses in the agricultural sector, as a result of the extreme drought brought upon by the 20009/2010 el nino...i'm sure that the Caribbean would have suffered similar losses in the said period.


It's hard to say, Nigel. No two El Nino episodes are the same just like no two hurricane seasons are the same. There are so many variables in the earth's atmosphere that are different from year to year. If we look at just SST anomalies, the anomalies in the Pacific could end up being very similar to the El Nino event in 2009/2010. That particular El Nino transitioned into a Modoki event in the winter months, just like this one might do.

January 2010 anomalies:



As I said though, there are variables. The cold PDO wasn't too strong then or even present, really. The past several winters, we've had strongly negative PDO signatures. Whether it was tied into La Nina is another story (good possibility). I think the strength of negative PDOs are influenced by ENSO events. Anyway, if our negative PDO signature can hang on, it might cause upward motion to remain over the Atlantic throughout the winter to bring you rain instead of drought. Anomalies in the South Atlantic were also very warm in the 2009/2010 El Nino. Right now, they are cold. All of these factors will play into regional weather and you will be able to know more as we get further into this El Nino's pattern.

Current Anomalies:

Quoting LargoFl:

looks like a smoky day on the cape.
Quoting LargoFl:
...gulf water is cooking now, first storm goes in there and BOOM

It'll only go boom under light wind shear and in a moist envrionment.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


I felt both of these. the 6.5 was a jolt and little shake but over quickly. the 7.3 shook for a long time. Im about 50 miles SSW of both of them.

The strongest quake that i've been in was a 5.4M in 2005 . The city of Kingston was destroyed in 1907 by a 6.5 on the moment magnitude scale...the home (Port Royal) of one of our international airports (Norman Manley International Airport) was also destroyed in 1692.
1692 Jamaica earthquake
Quoting Articuno:

Nope, FL.
Right. I-75 should have been a dead give away to me seeing that im from Florida. Duh. I need some caffine.
This is off-topic, but does anybody know how to make numbness in your mouth go away after you've been to the dentist? I'm hungry and want to eat but I don't want to be chewing on my jaw without realizing it. :P
Quoting MississippiWx:


It's hard to say, Nigel. No two El Nino episodes are the same just like no two hurricane seasons are the same. There are so many variables in the earth's atmosphere that are different from year to year. If we look at just SST anomalies, the anomalies in the Pacific could end up being very similar to the El Nino event in 2009/2010. That particular El Nino transitioned into a Modoki even in the winter months, just like this one might do.

January 2010 anomalies:



As I said though, there are variables. The cold PDO wasn't too strong then or even present, really. The past several winters, we've had strongly negative PDO signatures. Whether it was tied into La Nina is another story (good possibility). I think the strength of negative PDOs are influenced by ENSO events. Anyway, if our negative PDO signature can hang on, it might cause upward motion to remain over the Atlantic throughout the winter to bring you rain instead of drought. Anomalies in the South Atlantic were also very warm in the 2009/2010 El Nino. Right now, they are cold. All of these factors will play into regional weather and you will be able to know more as we get further into this El Nino's pattern.

Current Anomalies:


Thanks your your in-depth explanation of the possible scenarios...much appreciated.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is off-topic, but does anybody know how to make numbness in your mouth go away after you've been to the dentist? I'm hungry and want to eat but I don't want to be chewing on my jaw without realizing it. :P


smoothie time
Kansas town deals with 115 degree heat!!

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/02/us/kansas-town- stuggles-to-deal-with-115-degrees.html?_r=1&nl=tod aysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20120702
Quoting VINNY04:
Right. I-75 should have been a dead give away to me seeing that im from Florida. Duh. I need some caffine.

Lol. Don't worry I am not good with Interstates at all.
I just looked up one of the places in the map to see where it was. XD
Quoting jeffs713:

Free Market does not mean the consumers get the best deal, necessarily. It means the market is free of government intervention. Corporations are perfectly free to screw you over.



Yeah, but since the corporations have a permanent, multi-generational monopoly on all technology and patents, contrary to the Constitutional definition of patent laws, "Consumers" have no real freedom of choice.

If you want to modernize for your self or your employer or prospective employer, you have to keep up with the latest gadgets, but then the corporations have you anyway.

In many respects, the old two-way radios were better than modern phones, because you bought the damned thing one time, and then used it till it broke, and you didn't have to pay to use it every month.

I wish there was a way for consumers to FORCE computer networks to work like that, so that you could have a consumer owned and consumer operated network that didn't require paying middle men to use a product you already own...
Quoting MississippiWx:


It's hard to say, Nigel. No two El Nino episodes are the same just like no two hurricane seasons are the same. There are so many variables in the earth's atmosphere that are different from year to year. If we look at just SST anomalies, the anomalies in the Pacific could end up being very similar to the El Nino event in 2009/2010. That particular El Nino transitioned into a Modoki event in the winter months, just like this one might do.

January 2010 anomalies:



As I said though, there are variables. The cold PDO wasn't too strong then or even present, really. The past several winters, we've had strongly negative PDO signatures. Whether it was tied into La Nina is another story (good possibility). I think the strength of negative PDOs are influenced by ENSO events. Anyway, if our negative PDO signature can hang on, it might cause upward motion to remain over the Atlantic throughout the winter to bring you rain instead of drought. Anomalies in the South Atlantic were also very warm in the 2009/2010 El Nino. Right now, they are cold. All of these factors will play into regional weather and you will be able to know more as we get further into this El Nino's pattern.

Current Anomalies:



To me this looking like a classic strong El-Nino event.
96E
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is off-topic, but does anybody know how to make numbness in your mouth go away after you've been to the dentist? I'm hungry and want to eat but I don't want to be chewing on my jaw without realizing it. :P
The only thing i can tell you is to just wait. i dont think anything will make it go away because the novacaine or wht ever they used is inside your jaw. try drinking something with sugar in it. it should help with the hunger. thats what we do in the mowing business.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Code Orange.



I would put it at 50% instead of 30% as it looks very organized.
Quoting Articuno:

Lol. Don't worry I am not good with Interstates at all.
I just looked up one of the places in the map to see where it was. XD
Oh. Geography and map reading isnt one of your best skills? me neither so dont feel bad.
Quoting VINNY04:
The only thing i can tell you is to just wait. i dont think anything will make it go away because the novacaine or wht ever they used is inside your jaw. try drinking something with sugar in it. it should help with the hunger. thats what we do in the mowing business.


drink a smoothie
As long as that high sits over the TX/LA that bathtub in the Gulf is going to heat up even more.....hopefully this will translate into more TS and not hurricanes, or at least we will have ULL around to shear off whateven does develop, cause right now we are looking at a Katrina like setup for August.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I would put it at 50% instead of 30% as it looks very organized.


i agree
Wow. Gulf is boiling. If a storm gets in there and wind shear is low....BOOM!
Quoting LargoFl:
On that science show, they showed how the pacific plate sinks under the usa plate..melts down into magma then at some point resurfaces up thru volcano's etc and makes NEW land..ok..so they are estimating the earth is 400 million years old..my question is this..since all land..has been melted into magma at some point..there would be NO..way to say for sure..using testing on rocks etc..to say just HOW OLD the earth is..its been melted, renewed and melted again so many times in the past no?..man the field of geology is so interesting to me..i only wish when i was a young man..that i would have had this interest back then..and went into this field of work, man i would have loved that



Actual geologist here...

Plate tectonics as we know it has been active on our planet for about half of its 4.5 billion years. How do we know this? Well, for the most part, it's only the oceanic slabs that are subducting and get recycled in Earth's interior; the more-buoyant continental lithosphere survives (think about swimming lessons-- continental lithosphere is like the styrofoam kickboards they give out at the pool, which simply can't stay submerged due to their low density).

At any rate, the whole process of subduction, melting, and volcanism is a bit more complicated than the show suggested. We do have evidence that portions of the downgoing slab contribute to melts-- for example, 10Be, a short-lived isotope (geologically speaking, a half-life of around 1.3 million years is short) produced by cosmic radiation and collected in sediments can be found in volcanic eruptions, which means that the seafloor sediments are part of the melting process. By and large, though, physical, chemical and isotopic evidence suggests that most of the melt generation comes from dehydration of the downgoing slab, which floods water into the overlying wedge of mantle, reducing the melting point of the mantle rocks and promoting partial melting. As a result of these processes, oceanic lithosphere, which is created at spreading ridges, is continuously recycled back into Earth's interior at subduction zones. The oldest stable oceanic crust is only about 180 million years old.

For the continents, however, the story is different. Low-density continental lithosphere simply won't subduct. At convergent boundaries, it can crumple, break, flex, and thicken. The Himalayas are a modern example of the ultimate result of subduction; after tens of millions of years of oceanic-continental subduction, the northern margin of the Indian continental margin arrived on the doorstep of the southern edge of the Eurasian plate. What's transpired since is something akin to a 30-million-year head-on 18-wheeler collision filmed in super-slow-motion (think Matrix movie). This deformation and alteration that occurs during collisional mountain building is easy to recognize in the rock record, and we have many, many examples: the Appalachians, for example, date back to the formation of Pangaea 300 million years ago. The low hills of the Adirondacks and granites of the Llano Uplift are the eroded remnants of a billion-year old mountain range that spanned the eastern margin of an unrecognizable North America. In Canada, the subdued topography hides the story of active collision, deformation, and tectonic activity that dates back over 3 billion years, long since eroded to a flat plain. Some of the oldest rocks on earth, a metamorphosed gneiss in Quebec, date to over 4 billion years old. Sandstones in the Australian Outback, in the Jacks Hills locality, contain detrital zircon grains; some of these are up to 4.4 billion years old (though the granitic rock they crystallized within has long since vanished by erosion)!

The world's a dynamic place, and it's true that the nature of our planet continually reshapes and recycles itself-- it doesn't obliterate the story, it just makes for more difficult forensics to sort it out! :)

Quoting nigel20:

Thanks your your in-depth explanation of the possible scenarios...much appreciated.


Anytime. I didn't even mention the effects of the NAO/AO. Negative NAO/AO events usually cause more trofiness over the Eastern half of the United States. In 2009/2010, the AO/NAO were strongly negative for the majority of the winter into the spring months. Due to such anomalous trough-ing upstream from you, it might have caused anomalous ridging on top of you. As you see, a lot of things play into local/regional weather patterns, not just ENSO events themselves.
96E has a favorable environment ahead of it. 10 knots or less of wind shear, a moist environment (at least initially), and decent OHC values.

Quoting weatherh98:


drink a smoothie
Or Gatorade or Sobe Life Water. That helps too.
96e
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
96E has a favorable environment ahead of it. 10 knots or less of wind shear, a moist environment (at least initially), and decent OHC values.



yeah... so why?

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
Quoting VINNY04:
Or Gatorade or Sobe Life Water. That helps too.


not gatorade unless you workout to much sugar
Quoting weatherh98:
96e
Quite scary. Is it just me or does that thing off the NE side of Cuba look like its rotating? Maybe a future storm?
Quoting VINNY04:
Quite scary. Is it just me or does that thing off the NE side of Cuba look like its rotating? Maybe a future storm?
i see no sign of rotation, just some convection
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yeah... so why?

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

No idea.
June 30, 2012 TCHP

June 30, 2011 TCHP

June 30, 2009 TCHP


Anticyclone in the NE Gulf.


with a little bit of subsidence warming, the gulf will be on fire.
Quoting lickitysplit:
Wow. Gulf is boiling. If a storm gets in there and wind shear is low....BOOM!


Texas high will have something to say about that, or at least where storms won't or will go.
Quoting Ftmyersstorm1:
The sun is getting stronger each day and expanding. This is causing world wide weather extremes as well as on other planets. This is the normal 38,000 year cycle wich comes to an end soon. All you weather lovers are gonna see fireworks with storms and weather constantly becoming extreme. Be on alert, some weird and scary things are gonna happen and records are gonna fall. I can only let out a bit of info at this time. Please stay tuned.


and in december the earth completes a wobble on its axis that only happens 26000 years.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is off-topic, but does anybody know how to make numbness in your mouth go away after you've been to the dentist? I'm hungry and want to eat but I don't want to be chewing on my jaw without realizing it. :P

Wait.

Or smoothie king. I have experienced the same thing, and asked both my dentist, a nurse friend of mine, and my clinical instructor for nursing school. All answered with some variation of laughing and "no".
GOMEX is dry, not sure why the new found attention. The waters this time of year are always warm in the gulf.
PR has not gotten as much rain today as it really needed per the model guidance last week bringing that wave closer to the Greater Antilles. Maybe a better chance tomorrow per this am's NCEP Caribbean forecast:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
740 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO/USVI: MID/UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OFF THE VENEZUELAN COAST INTO PUERTO RICO...ENHANCING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. IN THE MEAN TIME...TROPICAL WAVE IS PROGRESSING WESTWARD AS IT EXTENDS ALONG 69W AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO/USVI INTO HISPANIOLA...WHILE LEADING TO A TRANSIENT INCREASE IN PWAT TO 40-44MM.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION DURING THE DAY TODAY...PRODUCING MARINE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MASS ESTABLISHES/ARRIVES FROM THE EAST...WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS. EXPECT HIGHER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AS A NEW WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER FORCING AND HIGHER PWAT VALUES TO SUSTAIN HIGHER CHANCES FOR MODERATE/HEAVY
RAIN.IN THE MEANTIME...MODELS ARE FORECASTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THE NMM VERSION OF THE WRF MODEL SHOWS LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 5-50MM/DAY...YET THE HRWRF IS FORECASTING MAXIMA IN EXCESS OF 100MM/DAY. WE ARE GOING WITH THE DRIER SOLUTION SINCE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
SOLORZANO...SMN (HONDURAS)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)



Quoting RTSplayer:



Yeah, but since the corporations have a permanent, multi-generational monopoly on all technology and patents, contrary to the Constitutional definition of patent laws, "Consumers" have no real freedom of choice.

If you want to modernize for your self or your employer or prospective employer, you have to keep up with the latest gadgets, but then the corporations have you anyway.

In many respects, the old two-way radios were better than modern phones, because you bought the damned thing one time, and then used it till it broke, and you didn't have to pay to use it every month.

I wish there was a way for consumers to FORCE computer networks to work like that, so that you could have a consumer owned and consumer operated network that didn't require paying middle men to use a product you already own...

You could always raise a few billion dollars to create a new network requiring upkeep, maintenance, and expansion, and do it yourself...

Some things are complex by their very nature, and need a larger economy of scale than what individual consumers can provide. (two-way radios have a couple of advantages, but innumerable disadvantages in a modern society, by the way)
Quoting jascott1967:
GOMEX is dry, not sure why the new found attention. The waters this time of year are always warm in the gulf.


true but apart from what debby did, the gulf is boiling.

i wouldnt say it too dry
263. 7544
watching 2 thingies today the blob north of cuba and the wave in the caribiean ie the wave is suppose move wnw and bring rain for south fl. on july 4 we watch and see
Just to give everyone a heads up. There is a virus trying to go around and its disguised as Windows Security Alerts. it will say that your computer is being attacked when it isnt. then a website will come up from "protect online trojians" or something like that. just exit out of the Windows Security Alerts page and run a separate test on your anti-virus software. Just giving everyone a warning.
Twenty minutes to go...

Grab a Fresca and get ready...
Quoting weatherbro:
Rogue waves are the thing to look for since they are also believed to reach upwards to 2,000 feet before breaking(and not all of them have been out at sea either)!

That seems a little unlikely. Even if one of those such waves were to occur, the chance would be astronomically smaller than the chance of a 100ft rogue wave, of which we have very few verifiable observations. Rogue waves in it of themselves are very rare, the higher you go the more rare it gets, as it requires more and more things to line up to attain such a height.
The Draupner Wave was estimated to be a 1/200,000 wave and it was just 84ft.

Quoting weatherbro:


megatsunami's I believe arn't technically tsunami's but ordinary beach waves.

What? According to what? Beach waves are predominantly caused by winds and tides. A megatsunami caused by a landslide is still a tsunami.
Quoting 7544:
watching 2 thingies today the blob north of cuba and the wave in the caribiean ie the wave is suppose move wnw and bring rain for south fl. on july 4 we watch and see
Hope it comes. Even after Debbie we still need more rain in Florida.
Quoting Ftmyersstorm1:
The sun is getting stronger each day and expanding. This is causing world wide weather extremes as well as on other planets. This is the normal 38,000 year cycle wich comes to an end soon. All you weather lovers are gonna see fireworks with storms and weather constantly becoming extreme. Be on alert, some weird and scary things are gonna happen and records are gonna fall. I can only let out a bit of info at this time. Please stay tuned.

Oh please tell us the info now, before you start charging $29.95 for your book...

(It shouldn't take long to make up more "the world is ending" tinfoil hat conspiracy theory stories)
Quoting Ftmyersstorm1:
The sun is getting stronger each day and expanding. This is causing world wide weather extremes as well as on other planets. This is the normal 38,000 year cycle wich comes to an end soon. All you weather lovers are gonna see fireworks with storms and weather constantly becoming extreme. Be on alert, some weird and scary things are gonna happen and records are gonna fall. I can only let out a bit of info at this time. Please stay tuned.
Why not let us in on it now?
Trop ATL vertical Shear

Gulf vertical shear

Carib vertical shear

BBL
Quoting VINNY04:
Why not let us in on it now?

He needs time to make it up.
Quoting 7544:
watching 2 thingies today the blob north of cuba and the wave in the caribiean ie the wave is suppose move wnw and bring rain for south fl. on july 4 we watch and see
... Why would you take time out of your day too look at that.

the only thing that has less low level circulation is the wave you are looking at.
EP, 96, 2012070218, , BEST, 0, 97N, 994W, 25, 1007, LO
Quoting jeffs713:

Oh please tell us the info now, before you start charging $29.95 for your book...

(It shouldn't take long to make up more "the world is ending" tinfoil hat conspiracy theory stories)


so we will get to the end of a 38 year solar cycle,
have a magnetic pole reversal,
a 10.0 earthquake
a mega-mega-tsunami
a cat6 hurricane
a tornado outbreak with ef-6 tornados
widespread catastrophic eruptions.
a giant asteroid or comet impact

anything else these people havent come up with yet for 2012?
Quoting jeffs713:

He needs time to make it up.
Ouch!!!!!! What? you dont take stock into these "world gonna end" theories? Hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!! Me neither.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Twenty minutes to go...

Grab a Fresca and get ready...
Ready for what?
Quoting ScottLincoln:

That seems a little unlikely. Even if one of those such waves were to occur, the chance would be astronomically smaller than the chance of a 100ft rogue wave, of which we have very few verifiable observations. Rogue waves in it of themselves are very rare, the higher you go the more rare it gets, as it requires more and more things to line up to attain such a height.
The Draupner Wave was estimated to be a 1/200,000 wave and it was just 84ft.


What? According to what? Beach waves are predominantly caused by winds and tides. A megatsunami caused by a landslide is still a tsunami.em>


technically yes. but they act differently. its like throwing a rock into a pond, the waves dont proceed out completely, they move a ways, die off before the next wave makes it further. the size of the waves can be much greater at the generation point than a tsunami but much smaller across an ocean
WHXX01 KMIA 021814
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC MON JUL 2 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962012) 20120702 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120702 1800 120703 0600 120703 1800 120704 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 99.4W 10.4N 101.4W 11.0N 103.3W 11.6N 105.2W
BAMD 9.7N 99.4W 9.8N 101.1W 9.9N 102.8W 10.0N 104.5W
BAMM 9.7N 99.4W 10.2N 101.2W 10.5N 103.0W 11.0N 104.8W
LBAR 9.7N 99.4W 10.2N 101.1W 10.8N 103.3W 11.5N 105.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120704 1800 120705 1800 120706 1800 120707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 107.2W 13.4N 110.7W 14.0N 114.4W 14.4N 118.2W
BAMD 10.2N 106.2W 10.6N 110.0W 10.8N 114.0W 10.9N 117.8W
BAMM 11.4N 106.7W 12.2N 110.5W 12.7N 114.6W 12.9N 118.8W
LBAR 12.3N 108.1W 13.9N 113.5W 14.6N 118.6W 13.0N 122.2W
SHIP 54KTS 61KTS 64KTS 66KTS
DSHP 54KTS 61KTS 64KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 99.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 98.1W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 96.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so we will get to the end of a 38 year solar cycle,
have a magnetic pole reversal,
a 10.0 earthquake
a mega-mega-tsunami
a cat6 hurricane
a tornado outbreak with ef-6 tornados
widespread catastrophic eruptions.
a giant asteroid or comet impact

anything else these people havent come up with yet for 2012?
Zombie apocalypse?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so we will get to the end of a 38 year solar cycle,
have a magnetic pole reversal,
a 10.0 earthquake
a mega-mega-tsunami
a cat6 hurricane
a tornado outbreak with ef-6 tornados
widespread catastrophic eruptions.
a giant asteroid or comet impact

anything else these people havent come up with yet for 2012?

You forgot the zombie apocalypse, some mysterious planet that will remove earth from orbiting the sun, an incredible solar flare destroying our infrastructure (the most plausible of all of them), and the Yellowstone supervolcano erupting.
OZ is walking around with other media people taking a look at the damage from the fires in CO. Live stream



Link
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so we will get to the end of a 38 year solar cycle,
have a magnetic pole reversal,
a 10.0 earthquake
a mega-mega-tsunami
a cat6 hurricane
a tornado outbreak with ef-6 tornados
widespread catastrophic eruptions.
a giant asteroid or comet impact

anything else these people havent come up with yet for 2012?


you left out multiple super volcano eruptions at once
i hope the doc is not retiring...
Quoting VINNY04:
Zombie apocalypse?


(starting in Miami)
You won't want to miss my next post, scheduled for 2:30 pm EDT Monday.

Jeff Masters
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is off-topic, but does anybody know how to make numbness in your mouth go away after you've been to the dentist? I'm hungry and want to eat but I don't want to be chewing on my jaw without realizing it. :P


Did you have a good time
Quoting jeffs713:

Oh please tell us the info now, before you start charging $29.95 for your book...

(It shouldn't take long to make up more "the world is ending" tinfoil hat conspiracy theory stories)


he said it was 29.99
Quoting weatherh98:


(starting in Miami)
GRAB THE GUN!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so we will get to the end of a 38 year solar cycle,
have a magnetic pole reversal,
a 10.0 earthquake
a mega-mega-tsunami
a cat6 hurricane
a tornado outbreak with ef-6 tornados
widespread catastrophic eruptions.
a giant asteroid or comet impact

anything else these people havent come up with yet for 2012?


glaciers fall in the ocean and create a tsunami
Quoting Patrap:
You won't want to miss my next post, scheduled for 2:30 pm EDT Monday.

Jeff Masters


kinda wondering about that
Quoting weatherh98:


technically yes. but they act differently. its like throwing a rock into a pond, the waves dont proceed out completely, they move a ways, die off before the next wave makes it further. the size of the waves can be much greater at the generation point than a tsunami but much smaller across an ocean


Ok, but they are not beach waves. Beach waves are caused by winds and tides. Tsunamis are caused by substantial ocean/water displacement. I'm not an oceanographer but it seems pretty elementary that they are fundamentally different phenomena.
Quoting Tazmanian:


Did you have a good time

Sure lol.
Quoting VINNY04:
GRAB THE GUN!!!!!!!!!!


you take the nades, ill get the sickle.

go find the box
I think I hear the AutoBot getting ready...
Quoting weatherh98:


technically yes. but they act differently. its like throwing a rock into a pond, the waves dont proceed out completely, they move a ways, die off before the next wave makes it further. the size of the waves can be much greater at the generation point than a tsunami but much smaller across an ocean
Actually, no, beach waves die off all the time. Rogue waves are generally seen as several waves that happen to peak near the same time/place and travel together. Ocean waves are completely a function of wind and tides (mostly wind), and ocean floor topography only comes into play in water that is less than 3x the wave height (or so)

A tsunami is mostly a function of water displacement and ocean floor topography. Tsunami waves at sea have very long wavelengths, but very low amplitude. Once they get into shallower water, their wavelength shortens, but amplitude increases as part of the physics law governing the conservation of energy.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Ok, but they are not beach waves. Beach waves are caused by winds and tides. Tsunamis are caused by substantial ocean/water displacement. I'm not an oceanographer but it seems pretty elementary that they are fundamentally different phenomena.


yes! im just a kid but the science channel showed me that one haha
Well im signing off now. Have a good 4th everyone and stay safe.
Quoting jeffs713:
Actually, no, beach waves die off all the time. Rogue waves are generally seen as several waves that happen to peak near the same time/place and travel together. Ocean waves are completely a function of wind and tides (mostly wind), and ocean floor topography only comes into play in water that is less than 3x the wave height (or so)

A tsunami is mostly a function of water displacement and ocean floor topography. Tsunami waves at sea have very long wavelengths, but very low amplitude. Once they get into shallower water, their wavelength shortens, but amplitude increases as part of the physics law governing the conservation of energy.


I was saying the difference from an earthquake tsunami and a landslide tsunami
Quoting MississippiWx:
The Atlantic is naked. Put some clothes on, dude:



Hmmm Clothes, What's that? Oh,a few waves here, some depressions there, and Oh yes a couple of tropical storms topped with Hurricanes. Is that enough clothes for you?

Quoting weatherh98:


kinda wondering about that


It's about Taz becoming a featured blogger. You didn't hear?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure lol.


clean teef
Quoting weatherh98:


I was saying the difference from an earthquake tsunami and a landslide tsunami

nope, identical cause, which is the displacement of water. HOW the water is displaced can differ, but at the core, water is displaced, and it has to go somewhere. (Water doesn't compress well at all... and even if it did compress, the compression waves would still have an impact)
Quoting VINNY04:
Why not let us in on it now?
They always make you sit through the freak show first.
Quoting MississippiWx:


It's about Taz becoming a featured blogger. You didn't hear?


seriously?

youre pulling my leg
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure lol.


Hey, the dentist can be pretty fun if you have the right dental hygienist hovering over you. Catch my drift? If she's ugly, then I'm sorry. Just enjoy have your teeth squeaky clean. :-)
NEW BLOG
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

have a magnetic pole reversal


'Magnetic Death Star' Fossils: Earlier Global Warming Produced A Whole New Form Of Life

An international team of scientists has discovered microscopic, magnetic fossils resembling spears and spindles, unlike anything previously seen, among sediment layers deposited during an ancient global-warming event along the Atlantic coastal plain of the United States.
Quoting Ftmyersstorm1:
The sun is getting stronger each day and expanding. This is causing world wide weather extremes as well as on other planets. This is the normal 38,000 year cycle wich comes to an end soon. All you weather lovers are gonna see fireworks with storms and weather constantly becoming extreme. Be on alert, some weird and scary things are gonna happen and records are gonna fall. I can only let out a bit of info at this time. Please stay tuned.



If the Sun was increasing statistically in any known EM frequency or particle radiation, or even some unknown exotic form of heat transfer, it would have been detected already and taken into consideration in climate models.

Any such surplus heat would be detect, for example, in solar boiler arrays, which would out perform their specifications by a significant, quantifiable margin if "unknown exotic radiation" were coming from the Sun.

"Weakly interacting" radiation or particles would be detected by the many neutrino detectors and possibly gravity experiments and cosmic ray detectors around the planet, and so extra neutrons or extra neutrinos are probably ruled out as well, although that would be admittedly a bit harder to quantify than EM radiation or charged particles.

At any rate, there would not be enough "hot" neutrons or "hot" neutrinos to explain the temperature increase. I think the required increase in neutron radiation would probably destroy the DNA of all life on Earth long before it made a significant change in global atmospheric and oceanic temperature. You'd likely need trillions and trillions of TONS of "Extra" neutrons hitting the Earth at a velocity in the millions of miles per hour in order to drive up the temperature of the atmosphere and oceans enough to measure.