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Vince: a first

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:41 PM GMT on October 09, 2005

Tropical Storm Vince
Tropical Storm Vince's formation today marks the first time that a storm beginning with the letter "V" has been given name. With 20 named storms, the Hurricane Season of 2005 is now in sole possession of second place on the list of busiest hurricane seasons of all time. Only 1933, with 21 storms, had more (back before they started naming storms). Vince formed in a very unusual location, not far from the coast of Spain, and in a region where water temperatures are only 23 - 24 C. I know I always harp on the rule that a water temperature of at least 26C is needed for tropical storm formation to occur, but we can bend that rule a little when a tropical storm forms from a pre-existing non-tropical low pressure system that sits over water for many days, and gradually acquires a warm core. As we've already seen, the Hurricane Season of 2005 doesn't care much about what is usual, and Vince's formation is certainly ample evidence of that. The storm was too far east to fit on our newer tracking maps, and just barely appears on one of our old tracking charts I had to dust off this morning, special for the occasion!

Vince won't be with us for long. A cold front approaching Europe will pick up Vince Tuesday morning, and cold water and wind shear will tear Vince apart. Vince's remains should bring Portugal and Spain heavy rains and winds gusts to 45 mph on Tuesday. Portugal gets the remains of tropical storms every 5 - 10 years, on average. This occurred most recently in October 1998 with Jeanne.

Subtropical Depression 22
Subtropical Depression 22 dissipated Saturday evening, torn apart by wind shear. Its remnants will continue west towards the Carolinas, but are not expected to regenerate or bring significant rains to the U.S., as the wind shear is too high (30 knots) for re-development to occur.

What's behind TD 22?
The tropical disturbance we've been following near 15N 53W, about 450 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has a low level circulation, but the cloud pattern is disorganized. Development is not expected today or Monday, but some slow development after that is possible.

A strong upper-level low north of Puerto Rico is creating a large curved band of disturbed weather from the Bahamas through the central Caribbean to the Leeward Islands. No development is likely in this area until Tuesday, when the low is expected to weaken and move north and reduce the amount of wind shear over the area. Several of the computer models predict that a tropical storm could form from this disturbed area of weather by mid-week and move north to threaten Bermuda.


Figure 1. Model tracks for suspect area east of the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Stan
There is no new news on Stan's death toll today, which remains at about 1500. Stan now ranks as one of the 30 most deadly hurricanes of all time. Stan now surpasses Katrina as the most deadly hurricane of 2005; Katrina's death toll stood at 1242 at last count, with 1003 of the deaths in Louisiana.


Figure 2.Total precipition for the year (PC = precipitation in incehs) from a station in Guatemala. During a 5-day period of rain from Stan, this station picked up 17 inches of rain.

The grim task of recovering bodies in Guatemala continues today, where the entire town of Panabaj in western Guatemala was buried in a landslide, killing all 800 residents. The entire village may be declared a mass grave, as rescuers move on to find victims of more survivable mudslides. Another 600 died in mudslides elsewhere in Guatemala. The storm also killed 67 people in El Salvador, 24 in Mexico and 11 in Nicaragua. Hundreds more are missing and presumed buried under landslides near Lake Atitlan in Guatemala.

The next update will be Monday around 10 am.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good Morning everyone.
Just found out we now have Vince. However, it will not affect any of us at all; unless we are going to Europe.
What's going on out there?
ay, if they feel its subjective that means they held a vote lol and more people wantedto name it, but its not a ts or a sts. and it will be gone in 24 hours. its probly more than just wanting to break the 1933 record. they want to use some of the greek alphabet.

plus there is a developing system in the carribean and that will now be wilma and we have had a problem with the ladies this year lol
lefty, u r wrong if u r saying this is not tropical
Anytime I hear the name Wilma, I think of the Flintstones; remember, Wilma was Barney's wife, the really good looking one. She can't be very mean to us with a name like Wilma!
vince is not a ts and is probly not fully warm core. its all bs and they nhc says it themselves. it isn;t even warrant my time to watch it as its not a ts. we need to watch the carribean which i have been saying for days will form a cyclone that will threaten the us. now we see what the models have been saysing for days now. alos glad to see dr.masters now talking about what the models have been calling for for days

WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A
TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE
DETERMINATION.
I think we're just reading the sentence two different ways, I thought it meant "the choice between STS and TS is subjective", while I think you're reading it as "whether it's an STS at all is subjective".
turtle, the nhc even says it subjective as to whetehr is a tropicl system. its over 23-24 degree water.
Yeah, they give the "subjective" comparison: Is it a TS or STS?
sorry I was wrong...Betty was Barney's wife, Wilma was Fred's wife...."senior moment"!
ay thats what its says. the next few lines says that it has aquired some charcteristics and so its being named. its bs. in 1933 we didn;t ewven name sts and now we name them. now we are even naming strong lows that aquire a few charcteristics. whats next we use the names to name nor'eatsers as well lol
TD 24 and TD 25 where are you and did i say that we could get up to TD 30 and it look like i will be right on that one lol
if its subjectivenss between sts and ts it would have been named yesterday or last night when it was more impressive. now i say fine maybe its a sts but its by no means a tropical storm or a true warmcore system
lefty, this is a warmcore system and is thus tropical. there is a little discrepancy wether its subtropical but, no discrepancy in whether its cold core or warm core.
to me its very very subjective and should have not been named, specially since its over the water temps it is and its life span will only be 24 hrs if that.
(Posted this in the wrong thread earlier)

tropical; storms and cyclones are heat engines. tell me what heat engine runs on 23-24 degree waters lol. they wanted to break the 1933 recordlike we want to break the record. its bs and will dissipate in 24 hours. this is one of the few times the nhc looks dumb lol


OK lefty you know better than the NHC. Did you read the whole discussion? Man klefty this is one of the few times you look dumb.
is there anyway to see new posts on this blog wifout hitting refresh lol?
turtle how do u know its warmcore?
Read the NHC discussion lefty.
look at the cyclone phase analysis lefty
The discussion says stuff like "A
07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE"....
this is the analysis


Link
thank you turttle.
ok, thats cleared up, this is an interesting storm isnt it
000
WTLFT420 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12:00 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

NEW INFORMATION REAVEALS THAT AN INTERNET USER WHO GOES BY THE HANDLE LEFTY420 ON DR JEFF MASTERS BLOG AT WWW.WUNDERGROUND.COM HAD DECLARED VINCE IN NOT A WARM CORE SYSTEM. WE FEEL HIS OPINION CARRIES MUCH MORE WEIGHT THAN OUR SCIENTIFIC EVIDINCE THUS WE A RE RESCINDING VINCE'S TROPICAL STORM STATUS. LEFTY HAS STATED IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO FORM OVER 24C WATER, NO MATTER WHAT OTHER CIRCUMASTANCES MAY BE PRESENT. WE WERE NOT AWARE OF THIS RULE AND WILL TAKE IT UNDER ADVISEMENT IN THE FUTURE.

FORECASTER JEFF
but it also say this in the dissucssion meaning tis possible its still cold core at the surface. like i said. its a close call and i am one of those ont he other side saying its an abuse of the naming process lol

ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM.
u saw the analysis, it is a warm core, close to cold but, its definitely warm
tim i am allowed to dissagree with a close call. i neevr said i know more just said it was a little subjective. but if u want to waste blog space attacking my opinion on soimething good for you
timl2k5 thats some funny stuff!!!! however everyone is entitled to their own opinions
turtle wasn;t that anylassis of the upper level. thats why i say now its a close call but its so close i guess they decided it had ebough to classify it as a named storm.
Yes, I am just expressing my opinion of lefty's opinion. I'll go away now.
turtle this ios there full statment on the core

BUT A
07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM.
tim what ui did was attack me. thats a troll move. the rest of us have been debating the situation like adults. thats the difference.
lefty, "is symmetric and not very far on the cold core side of the spectrum" is a supporting statement to name it a tropical cyclone. i.e. what they are saying is that there is very little evididence that this is a cold core system.
im gonna hav to work now, ill hav to continue the debate later
and its not my rule, its just known that below 25c water does not evaporate into the atmosphere at a rate to support a warm core syste, or atleast that was what was thought. now we ar not talking 25degrees we are talking 23-24 a full 2-3 below the line so its very subjective
I didn't attack you anymore than you attacked the NHC.
tim thats is now what they are sying. they are saying some anylassis have it just on the cold side, and some have it just on the warm side. but its verey close . thats what that says.
play nic all
i neevr attacked the nhc. when i made my statment i put a lol at the end to show i was joking. i think its a topugh call and i am sure in many circles people are debating this the same way we are now. i also do nopt belive in name subtropical systems. this is along that line.
Well, I disagree, I think that statement is in there to show how little evidence there is that this is a cold core non-tropical system. Yes, it's a borderline cyclone, but to say that they just want to "break the record" by naming this system is absurd.
* The NHC should use Portugal as the reference point on advisories, because a) apparently that's where it's headed and b) how often do you get to hear "At 11 p.m. the center of Tropical Storm Vince was located at latitude 34.7 north, longitude 18.3 west, or about 500 miles south-southeast of Lisbon, Portugal"?

* Frederic was retired in 1979, but Fred is on the 2009 list of names. No Betty, Barney or Joe Rockhead, sadly.
can we all agree to disagree and state it is what it is!! what about the blob near PR
i put lol's at the end of those staements tim, to show i was joking.i am sprry its hard to tell these things ion a text enciroment and i have a habbit of using lol instead of j/k. maybe i should use j/k more. so people like u don;t get confused
WTNT43 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND
THE CANARY ISLANDS... HAS BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A
TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE
DETERMINATION. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT
WARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE. THE CYCLONE IS
ISOLATED AND IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS... PERHAPS 20-25 N MI... AND WHILE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGER ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE... THE INNER CORE
OF CONVECTION ONLY HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS... BUT A
07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. CYCLONE
PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS
SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE
SPECTRUM.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A 0640Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS AND BY SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND
SAB OF 3.0 BASED ON THE HEBERT-POTEAT TECHNIQUE. SINCE SUBTROPICAL
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST DAY OR
SO... VINCE COULD EASILY BE DEEMED TO HAVE BECOME A SUBTROPICAL
STORM YESTERDAY. VINCE HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT NOW SEEMS TO BE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ALONG THIS SAME HEADING IS EXPECTED UNTIL VINCE MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 34.0N 19.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 34.7N 18.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 36.3N 16.1W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 39.1N 13.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT


$$




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Page last modified: Sunday, 09-Oct-2005 11:03:59 EDT
000
WTLFT420 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12:00 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

NEW INFORMATION REAVEALS THAT AN INTERNET USER WHO GOES BY THE HANDLE LEFTY420 ON DR JEFF MASTERS BLOG AT WWW.WUNDERGROUND.COM HAD DECLARED VINCE IN NOT A WARM CORE SYSTEM. WE FEEL HIS OPINION CARRIES MUCH MORE WEIGHT THAN OUR SCIENTIFIC EVIDINCE THUS WE A RE RESCINDING VINCE'S TROPICAL STORM STATUS. LEFTY HAS STATED IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO FORM OVER 24C WATER, NO MATTER WHAT OTHER CIRCUMASTANCES MAY BE PRESENT. WE WERE NOT AWARE OF THIS RULE AND WILL TAKE IT UNDER ADVISEMENT IN THE FUTURE.

FORECASTER JEFF

IS THIS FOR REAL??????
when u retire a name its not for good. just for 10 years.
Now here is the whole statement. It's a ts. It looks like 1. It is 1.
AM,
no but I have tears running down my face from reading it again
oh okay, that tim guy made it up
ok all cool down now we do not no where this Vince came from let not turn this in to a lol her ok all

No disrespect lefty you have been very knowledgable on all matters here. But it was pretty funny
they have been watching this system (now Vince) FOR ABOUT 2 DAYS NOW.
OK Lefty. I'm sorry if I took you too seriously, but when somone appears to mock the NHC I guess it gets me riled up. Who knows maybe they are a little anxious for some activity?
naw its cool. i just am against the naming of the close ones specilaly when we have little knowledge on the system. but i am more focused on the area near pr.


for days now all globalmodels ahve been forming a cyclone near p[r and this storm could possibly threaten the eastern us. there has been dissagreement between the models and the gfs from run to run on how fast a building ridge will buidl east and the speed of a cold front that will cross the us. the gfs and the models have been to fast to move cold fronts across the us this year and belive it will be like this last front an move slowly. also belive the ridge builds way to fast east. but we will see. the models form a anticyclone over the system and that allows itto get strong so cat 1 or 2 is possible but thats early speculation
000
WTLFT420 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12:00 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

I AM NOW GOING TO WASTE BLOG SPACE ALSO BY SAYING THIS WAS KIND OF FUNNY.. I AGREE WITH LEFTY HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THE NHC IS DRAWING AT STRAWS AND BUCKING FOR THE GREEK ALPHABET..

FORECASTER DAVE
trsut me tim, nost people know i respect the nhc more thany anyone. i am the last to mock them
hey everyone...just got back...Vince?? what the HECK lol
Does Vince have an eye or is that just a hole in the clouds.
There was a time, not so many years ago, where learned men debated vigorously their manifold views, and the wise but less educated would watch and learn. Disagreement is the fuel for healthy debate, yet it need not lead to acrimony. We noobs and lurkers prefer the discourse and banter, as it is the supporting arguments that contain knowledge and perspective, not the thin NHC releases.

Humans feel the need to categorize, and strive to discern ever-finer nuances to place an instance into a general class. Nature feels no such needs, and obviously finds our classes of storms a bit restrictive!

So let's all thicken our skins and tone down the personal taunts, but by all means keep the debate. And the humor -- that was pretty funny, Tim.
Zap
its not a true eye
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, a broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms. Over the next day or so, this area of disturbed weather is expected to shift slowly northward along a trough of low pressure extending into the southeast Bahamas. As that happens, locally heavy rain is likely over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Eventually, a tropical or subtropical storm may develop, but such an event would be several days in the future.
~weather.com
Yes it is. Extratropical storms sometimes have eyes. It kept the eye when it changed over to tropical.Proof of the extratropical eye would be the low that hit NC last winter. IT had a true eye. Also the weatherchannle said it was a eye.
65. iyou
zowie Zaphod!! I like the way you're thinking!
channel*
Mow I'm going to lunch and try to find the records on that low.
Now*. I hate this keyboard
If I'm not mistaken...the 12Z GFS has what ever's left of Tammy causing a blowup of heavy rain from VA to southern New England Wednesday.
000
WTLFT420 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12:00 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

I Like Eggs.

Forecaster Bob
here is proof
Synoptic Overview - On the evening of Thursday, May 5, 2005, a surface low formed over Florida as a 500 mb trough began to dig into the southeast states. The surface low subsequently began to move northeast along the southeast coast as the 500 mb trough closed off over North Carolina. During the morning hours of Friday, May 6, 2005, it was apparent that the system was deepening much quicker than any model had forecast as surface pressures began to plummet ahead of the low and winds along the North Carolina coast began to increase significantly. The low continued to rapidly deepen as it crossed south of Cape Hatteras. Surface pressures in the low center were not directly sampled because of the low's offshore location. At 2000Z (4:00 pm), the closest buoy to the low center, buoy 41025 (Diamond), reported a surface pressure of 999.5 millibars with NNE winds at 40 knots, gusting to 58 knots. Visibile satellite imagery fixed the low center (with an eye-like feature) 50 miles due SSE of 41025 at this time. With winds 40G58KT 50 miles from the low center at buoy 41025, it is reasonable to assume surface pressures at the low center were much lower, probably somewhere near 995 millibars. It is also interesting to note that at this time [2000Z], the pressure difference between Cape Lookout and Buoy 41025, a distance of approximately 75 miles, was near 10 millibars!

As the system continued to move northeast out into the Atlantic on Saturday, May 7, convection began wrapping around the center of circulation and a distinct eye feature persisted. The system developed strong convection at the center of circulation (as shown in the IR Satellite image from Sat. May 7) at a latitude and longitude that cooresponded almost exactly with the northern edge of the Gulf Stream, an area with strong SST gradients. From a cyclone dynamics perspective, with extratropical systems dominated by strong upper-level dynamics and dry baroclinic energy conversion at one end of the spectrum and tropical cyclones dominated by diabatic processes (latent heat release) on the other end, this system (at least for a time on Saturday) seemed to possess characteristics from both ends of the spectrum. There is much debate within the meteorological community on what exactly constitutes a subtropical or hybrid system. A more thorough analysis of model data in this case is needed to determine what was happening to the cyclone on Saturday afternoon. Inverting the lower diabatic potential vorticity maximum to see how much it was contributing to the overall circulation of the system would help quantify how much of a role latent heat release was playing as the system evolved on Saturday. However, even without a thorough analysis of model data, the IR satellite representation of the system on Saturday and its location at the northern edge of the Gulf Stream point to the conclusion that this system did indeed fall somewhere in-between the extratropical and tropical ends of the spectrum. A most unusual storm, especially for May.
lefty I see you are contiunuing your error ways. AND, still no cat 3+ threatening the gulf coast. You have the worst track record. Having a great list of bookmarks for weather links is a nice contribution to the blog, though. Thanks.
000
WTLFT420 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12:00 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

WHATS UP. I NEED INFO ON VINCE. I'M SUSPOSED TO KNOW ABOUT THIS STORM BUT I FELL ASLEEP AT WORK. QUICK SO I CAN HAVE A UPDATE.


FORECASTER LEE
Now for lunch brb.
There's a swirl on the radar just south of Puerto Rico. Looks like it's breaking up, though.

Link
Hey Lefty, I'm gonna be nice about this now:

I TOLD YOU SO, I TOLD YOU SO
HA HA HA I TOLD YOU SO!
Blizzard of 1934:Another blizzrad foolowing an active tropical season.
Blizzard of '96 (after 1995) Snowfall totals.
So we've had two semi- or pseudo-tropical storms in a row.

Why does the NHC think the next storm will gen at 15N 63E?

I can see the logic of trailing a remnant low aided by two upper level anticyclones with warm temps. But is that significantly better than a bit to the west under the edge of one anticyclone, but with a bit less low-level wind? Do weak cross-pattern winds at different layers aid cyclonic genesis or hinder it?
Zap
Blizzard of 89 after I think hugo. I was born in NC with snow all around. Parents barely got to the hospital.
if we are seeing active tropical season what will ca see this year in winter time like the big wind storm of 1995 in or and WA when we saw a active tropical season when we got down to the T storm that year if any one have this ? for me let me no
Blizzard of '96 (after 1995 season) Snowfall totals.

**SORRY LINKS DIDNT APPEAR**
lkol torn, i am shocked as u can see by my posts. whats up man.


the reason they think a storm will form is becasue all the global models say one will form. and so far the conditions in the models is comming together
I dont know how this corrolates to weather in the Werst, but I know that thw warm SST's help spawn these strong Nor'easters...
yeah am9 we had 30 inches here where i live in central va. i belive this will be a heell of a winter this year
87. amd
lol, it seems to me that this is another example in which Lefty thinks he knows everything.

The NHC even says in its analysis that the system is warm core, and tropical storms, and even hurricanes have formed near that area in the atlantic.

Hurricane Nicole, in late november and early december, a few years ago, formed from a non-tropical low that drifted to near the canaries, and was originally in warmers roughly as warm as this storm was.
Accuwaether comes out with their forecast for the winter tommorow... I live in NJ and am already getting ready for alot of snow... we get about 20-30" on average.
am9 its a lil bit more than that. in 1995 we had so many stoirms because of no el nino. we have had no elnino this year. also longrange forcasts show that there will likley be no elnoino this winter like in 95. well what does elnino mean. when we don;t have an elnin the jetstream is pushed way up into canada on the west coast. meaning its dryier in california and the whole west coast. it also means the jet streem will plunge deep cold air into the north east as the jet stream dives south from canad and is orinetated up the east coast. so cold are will be in place and disturbances will move from the west coast south to the gulf, pick up mostuire, and develop rapidly offn the carolina coast and move north. thats an non el nino setup and non el nino is correlated by more tropical weather and in 1995 we had no elnino
This year is incredible, Lefty. It is as if the atmosphere knows that we keep records on it and it wanted to put on a grand display that would break just about every record imaginable. However, I, as you know, am not at all suprised that Vince formed. I will say, though, that the NHC's decision to go purely tropical stunned me. I have not been able to find any DECENT satellite loops, but, as you have illuded to, it is amazing that a purely tropical system formed in that cold of water. It really makes me wonder if the United States is done with major hurricanes for the season. Remember, still over 1.5 months left.
that was the year that we had that big wind storm and as you can see and was the year we got to the T storm
Vince, Wilma, Alpha, etc. Let's hope that these will all be just fascinating creatures to observe from afar. Hope no more landfalls. Atlantic and Carribean just going through wash and spin cycles, but where do they drain? Wonder what (hoping) positive affect on our seas and rivers from these turgid activity?
yeah torn. i asid in the other blog i would belive sub-tropical befor tropical lol
ya and on Oct 10, 2004 we were dealing with two systems, matthew and Nicole...
torn here u go man. satleite link. enjoy it

Link
that the ull getting convection. the llc of td 22 is well north and west of that
that convection is asscoited more with the ull than td 22. alot of convergence though
And all of you who find a morbid pleasure in bashing Lefty, keep your pieholes shut. He may not know everything, but at least he thinks logically before he posts his thoughts. All you who bash him just seem to post things that are of no meteorological value whatsoever. This is a weather blog, not a people-bashing blog. Please keep those thoughts to yourself or express them in a way that is not demoralizing or demeaning. All that those posts do is cause trouble and trivial conversations that gets us off topic.
Thanks, Lefty.
thanks torn and ur welcome.


plus i owe u for being right lol.

as the yankess say who my daddy lol
king it is some nice convection though. very unlikley it will regenrate though. well football time catch u guys in a lil bit.

torn once again. yea u were right and ur my daddy lol
what is a ull?
Your welcome, Lefty. And, you don't owe me anything. My mom already thinks I'm spoiled.
I live on LI...I got 74.4" of snow last winter. Can't picture it getting too much worse...but it looks like it might lol.
And I think that the reason that Vince is considered tropical is because of the pretty impressive eye. I know that all types of lows, if strong enough, can have eyes, but I think that only tropical lows have eyes this impressive.
lol torn ur spoiled lol./

ull is upper level low

llc is low level circulation, or low level center
yeah weather we usually get 20= inches but barely goit 15 last year here in va. alot of storms bombed out off the coast and affected the ne but had little affect on the southern mid-atlantic. this year will be worse for us but about the same for you. just alot colder lol
Polar lows can have very well-defined eyes, too, though the eyewall is usually segmented if there is more than onne feeder band.
Hey Weathermandan, I'll take that 74 inches of snow. We did have a lake-effect storm of 24 inches last year, but lake-effect snow is very drw and powdery. Last winter really started the drought of 2005 around here. This year has, for most of the year, been drier than any of the dust bowl years here for us in NW IN.
Drw=dry.
*random question* how many letters in the Greek Alphabet?? lolol
24 letters in the Greek alphabet.
24 letters in the Greek alphabet.
Jinx, Hecker.
thanks

*another random question*
if the remnant llc of std 22 moves directly underneath the ULL...then ... sts?
Link

Polar Low pic...
It has had a flare of convection today, but I think that Lefty is right. The models have been saying this for days now. I think that something will develop near the islands and not give ex-SD 22 an opprotunity to develop.
120. dcw
000
WTLFT420 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12:00 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

SATTELITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT 24 LETTERS HAVE FORMED IN THE GREEK ALPHABET.

FORECASTER LEE
dcw, you have a pm on your website.
122. dcw
000
WTLFT420 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12:00 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 120.0 OF THE SYSTEM NEAR RUNNINGJOKE NORTH WAYTOOREPETITIVE WEST JUSTIFY UPGRADING TALKING IN DISCUSSION STYLE TO AN OFFICIAL METHOD OF THIS BLOG.

FORECASTER LEE
You know you can stop using my name. Use your own. I'm forecaster Lee.lol
000
WTLFT420 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12:00 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

Were all gonna die.

Forecaster Bob
im gonna do an analysis of the low pressure in the atlantic, i think it might be becoming tropical or sub tropical
No itsa we're all going to die quickly
127. dcw
000
WTLFT420 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12:00 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

YOU DIDN'T SPEAK IN CAPS, BOB.

FORECASTER JOHN
the upper low is starting to gain some charecteristics of tropical cyclones but, it will take more time for that to happpen. std 22 has regenerated on satellite images!

it will be redeclared at 5 pm. thats my call
Hey all - Here is a very interesting link to "near-real time sea surface altimetry". Outputs maps of sea surface height anomalies daily.

Link


You have to set some values for the map, reasonable first choices for a wide view of the tropical Atlantic are:

"Mid-atlantic"
East Longitude Min 270
East Longitude Max 310
(also set latitude, say 10 min, 35 max, or whatever)
"show contours"
"annotate contours"

Then zoom in on any areas of interest - very cool.
DCW, I issued advisory #1 on Vince on your website. Take a look.
TROPICAL STORM VINCE IS NEAR 34.0N 19.2W AT 1500 UTC ABOUT 140
MILES NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS MOVING NE 4 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT GUSTING TO 55 KT WITH AN ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. VINCE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
MODERATE CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE CENTER WITHIN 45-60
NM...INTENSIFYING RECENTLY. AN EYE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE
PICTURES WITH EVEN SOME HINTS OF OUTFLOW... A SLOW MOTION TO
THE NE LOOKS LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PROBABLY
ABSORB THE SYSTEM IN A FEW DAYS. A PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION
SUGGESTS THIS IS THE FARTHEST EAST AND NORTH A TROPICAL CYCLONE
HAS EVER FORMED IN THE BASIN.

Nah, really? Who woulda thunk it?:)
Compare the current max tropical cyclone heat potential in the East-Central GOM to the high altimetry anomaly - precise spatial correlation. Must indicate center of the loop current
Side-by-side comparison here:

Link
Polar lows do not have an eyewall because they do not have deep convection,the kind of convection is different that occurs in a hurricane than just an ordinary cell,even weaker tropical cells release a tremendus amount of rain and wind.Polar lows or nor' easters CANNOT achive sustaind winds much higher than ts force becuase jet energy can only intensify a low to a certain level,HEAT IS A TRANSFER OF ENERGY,nor' easters or polar lows do not suck up massive amounts of heat energy and water vapor,that is what is the big difference between non - tropical cyclones and tropical cyclones..........
Hey guys, look at the first advisory of the Amateur Hurricane Center

Link

Please comment on my first advisory, if not here, then on the website.
I should have said the first advisory on Vince, not of the entire center.
tornadotv, the ahc is a cool idea, its gonna be hard to keep updated though
It was dcw's idea, and I know it will be hard to update. Right now, my plan is to issue my advisories after the NHC's. There will be no "11 AM ET" advisories because I am in schoo then. If advisories are being issued on a every 3 or 2 hour basis by the NHC, then an advisory would be issued at about 3:30 PM EDT.
Jedkins,

You're right about the lack of convection in Polar Lows. They are, however, the same type of system as tropical lows, namely Barotropic Warm-core lows. They form under different processes, but do reach around the same strength as minimal Cat 1's. I was stationed in Keflavik, Iceland, when I was in the Navy, and lived through two Polar Lows. At least 3 hours or more the winds were sustained hurricane strength, and one of the lows lasted for about four days. I don't think they have an eye that is just like a hurricane, or even TS Vince :), but they do often get so wrapped up in itself that it forms an "eyelike" structure.

just my two-cents, gotta go to work, arrivaderci!
Hey guys, mail any additional comments you have for me. I'll be gone until 5:00 PM EDT. I'm being forced to go to my sister's soccer game. :(
You can see Vince on the very edge of the map and make an animation here:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html
They form from jet energy and temperature constrast,but only reacking winds no greater than category 1 but with heavy snow can be dangerous to try an venture out in,and thos winds can cause alot of power outages,esspecially in areas where hurricanes are rare or do not efect those areas powerlines are poorly constructed compared to how they are down here in florida,also trees are weaker in areas whereb hurricanes do not occur or are rare,but eyewalls cannot form in non - tropical lows as I explained earlier.
A look into the near future:

000
WTLFT420 KNHC 091500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12:00 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24 HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO EVER BE NAMED AFER A LETTER IN THE GREEK ALPHABET. AND THE MOST AWESOME TOO, ALPHA HOUSE ROOOOOOOOOLS DUDE! OH MAN I REMEMBER THAT ONE RUSH WEEK WE MADE ALL THE PLEDGES GO TO THE GAY BAR AND ASK FOR A SEX IN THE BATHROOM AND THEY DID IT HA HA HA HA HA. MAN I DON'T THINK THATS EVEN A DRINK. OH MAN THEN THERE WAS THE MIXER AT GAMMA BETA RHO'S HOUSE, THAT WAS LAME BECUASE IT WAS NOTHING BUT FAT CHICKS, SO BROTHER HOMER TOOK A WHIZ ON THEIR KITCHEN FLOOR AND WE LEFT TO GO PLAY QUARTERS BACK AT THE HOUSE. THAT DUMB SOB BROTHER STONER MISSED THE TABLE WITH HIS THROW SO HE HAD TO DRINK THE WHOLE PITCHER OF NATTY LIGHT IN TWO MINUTES OR HE WAS GOING TO HAVE TO TASTE THE PADDLE OF RIGHTEOUSNESS. HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HE WAS THROWING UP TILL 7 IN THE MORNING! I BET HE'S STILL HUNG OVER! ANYWAY, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS GOING TO DO BUT IF IT'S A TRUE ALPHA HE'LL HEAD STRAIGHT TO DAYTONA BEACH FOR A BOOTY CALL. SPRING BREAK 2002 WOOOOOOOOOOOOO! I DON'T REMEMBER ANYTHING FROM THAT WEEK SO I KNOW IT RULED. NOT AS MUCH AS THAT AWESOME TAILGATER WE HAD AT HOMECOMING MAN THAT ROCKED. THAT SOB DEAN ANDERSON KICKED US OFF CAMPUS JUST BECAUSE WE MADE HIS DAUGHTER DO A BEER BONG, MAN HOW DID WE KNOW SHE WAS 14 BECAUSE LET ME TELL YOU SHE WAS SERIOUSLY HOT. I GOTTA GO TO THE 7-11 AND PICK UP A BIG GULP AND A CAN OF COPENHAGEN. GO ALPHA! SCREW DELTA!

FORECASTER BEAVER
quick update. vince has fallen apart. he will be dissipated at the 5pm update. as i was saying water temps were no where near hot enough for a ts so when he becoame tropical if u will he died
lefty, according to all IR's I see, Vince is still alive and well with a clearly defined eye.
Dr Jeff and all! If you haven't been apprised of it, the Miami Herald is coming out with a four-part series starting today with frightening info on the short-falls, thanks to the short-sightedness of the NWS and budgeting and how it affects the science of forecasting hurricanes, past, present and future. I recommend the reading for anyone with an interest in future of meteorology.
I am also amazed at the fear instilled in the employees, that noone has been a whistle-blower thus far.
BLIND EYE IN HURRICANE FORECAST
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/
could TD 22 come back and what is the up date on tht V storm and could CA see a big wind storm like the one back in 1995 when we got down to the T storm that year?
dos any one no why the Atlantic Storms Retired Into Hurricane History has not been up date yet the last time when they up date it when we had the E storm of this year when will they up date it?

hey
no
any one there??
Hurricane Vince! New First!
i have up date my blog so take a look
154. dcw
Yeah...uh-huh. Dissipated at the same 5PM which upgrades him to a Hurricane?

WTF?!?!?
Wow Robb, your right. I thought I had read a post earlier stating Vince had fallen apart. Wow
Lol Vince is a hurricane they must have rolled dice on that one LOL
i had a feeling it was a hurricane
Does that look like a hurricane??

Whatever I guess they know best


000
WTNT33 KNHC 092048
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

...VINCE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS...IGNORING LEFTY'S CLAIM OF DISSIPATION ...MAINLY A HAZARD FOR MARINE INTERESTS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE VINCE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 18.6 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES...
865 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES. THIS POSITION IS ALSO
ABOUT 125 MILES... 200 KM... NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

VINCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT... BUT VINCE
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 80 MILES... 130 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...34.2 N... 18.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB
HURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

IF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS
ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION. MOST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS
VINCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY. IN FACT... THE CIRA INTENSITY
ESTIMATE BASED ON THE EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 07Z WAS 50 KT AND
995 MB... SO VINCE WAS PROBABLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING
THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MORE RECENTLY... METSAT-8
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH ABOUT
20 N MI DIAMETER HAS CONTRACTED TO 15 N MI AS A BONA FIDE EYE. SOME
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS NOW DISCERNIBLE AROUND THE DEEP
CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN
IN MOST HURRICANES. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE
FROM 3.5 TO 4.5... WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE BASED ON AN
EYE PATTERN. THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 65 KT. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE AS
STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST...
ESPECIALLY SINCE THE CONVECTION MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER THE
23-24C SSTS... BUT WE HAVE NO DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES.

VINCE IS STILL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT VERY FAST... ABOUT
045/5... SO IT COULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
WHILE ITS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHANGES LITTLE. VINCE
IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR RAMPS UP. A COLD FRONT IS SEVERAL
HUNDRED N MI NORTHWEST OF VINCE... AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS
EASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... IT SHOULD PULL VINCE
NORTHEASTWARD AT A GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST THAT VINCE
WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... BUT IT COULD
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF VINCE TO
COMPLETELY LOSE ITS INDENTITY.

FORECASTER KNABB
LEFTY I WANT TO HEAR UR REACTION ON THE 5PM UPDATE FOR HURRICANE VINCE
SURPRISE SURPRISE!!!
Hurricane Vince...
If you read the article written in the Miami Herald it exposes so many holes in the network of info gathering for hurricanes that it's enough to scare the pants off you! Well researched article, too in depth for just one day. Today was the first and well worth reading. Then you'll understand just why NHC can't get a handle on systems. They are woefully underinformed. Lack of equipment, mal-functioning equipment, you name it. Scary stuff. And it costs lives. Needs a Congressional hearing.
The NOLA levees lack of maintenance cost one City, the NWS lack of maintenance costs an entire hurricane swath of globe...
I realize that we're one storm away from tying 1935 for # of storms, but isn't it possible they had even more storms back then that they didn't know about because they didn't have satellites and computers to analyze the data?

Just curious.
If you read the advisory, there ony basing the 65 kt advisory on Dvorak, ther not really sure...
Its 1933, yes that is possible
1933, right... oops ;-)
wwho cares about the exact intensity, its affecting no one
SST's near Vince are only 72 or 73 degrees,which I've never heard could support a hurricane...please give me an example to prove me wrong if you can find one
yes, but who's gonna trust the NHC when it comes to hurricanes that are affecting people if they get the intensities wrong.
sorry, i was looking at a quick satelite image and it must have been wrong one. hurricane lol thats funny. but if they say it is maybe it is
I've made the forecast models available on Google Earth. Updating regularly, as long as my connection is up.
There's a current wind radii folder, which is unchecked by default. Filled polygons don't render correctly on low-end video cards.
I haven't assigned colors to all the models yet (those used by JTWC, for example).

ATCF Active Storms and Invests
sorry to much football lol. be back later guys. more football
Hurricane Karl in 1980 formed not too far away from Vince and over 23-24 C waters.
thanks St. SImons

000
WTNT33 KNHC 092048
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE VINCE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ROLLS DICE AND IT LANDS ON HURRICANE VINCE....

AT 6OZ FORECASTERS BEVEN AND MAX MAYFIELD ROLLED A SET OF DICE AND IT LANDED ON TWO SIXES WHICH WAS DECIDED THAT WOULD BE A MINMIAL HURRICANE...

IT WAS DECIDED LATER THAT A GAME OF SPADES WILL DETERMINE THE FATE OF THE 11PM ADVISORY

FORECASTER DAVE
178. dcw
Lol, FtLdale.
lol Ft. lauderdale
boy what more can this hurricane season have for us this year been like a lol for us
mabye next time a hurricane will form In the Arctic.
this is a hurricane, even though its hard to believe
185. dcw
This year is great! My old boredom standby of get-on-the-NHC's site-at-11:01-and-refresh-till-the-5:00 advisory is working even better then ever!
Robb, I'm with you. How can we know just how many TC there were before satellites and and all? Yes, there were ship reports, but a lot of systems probably started up and died without human knowledge...
catch you all later!
188. dcw
That's true, cgable. But notable also is that if you draw a box around the area where storms were detected in 1933...most of the storms this year have been in it.
i think it will be funny that a hurricane will hit new york to top off this year hurricane season and i am this joking on that i do not want to see a hurricane hiting new york at all that will not be good
How far is Vince from Portugal? 600 miles or so?
first tropical cyclone to hit the iberian peninsula. this season is just too weird
yes St Simons
I wonder if Portugal will issue TS Watches just in case it remains tropical?
Maybe we'll get reverse hurricanes, ones that get stronger over land and weaken over water.
I think that the article in the Sun-Sentinel today makes the point that the NHC is underfunded, not incompetent. Simply put, they need more money. They do an admirable job with the money that they have to work with. I don't think anyone could do better. It certainly is one part of our goverment that is making the most with what it has to work with. More funding could provide more reconnasaince planes, more forecasters, more of anything else that's needed. In the story it tells of times that reconassaince planes were not flown. This was not due to the fact that the NHC did not want them to be flown. It's because they had mechanical issues, and/or there's only so many times that the available crew can fly. More money would mean an extra plane or two. And more available crew.
yeah well spending $2 billion to beef up the National Hurricane Center or $20 billion to get levees in shape doesn't help national security--spending $200 billion in Iraq does *makes face*
I issued my second advisory on Vince:

Link

Dcw, PM me on your site to tell me if I made enough changes. I wanted to keep the headlines and the seperate lines for current position, winds, and pressure. It makes it easier to find the info.
They might just issue gale warnings, I mean what is the difference? in the US we did not issue tropical storm warnings in the 1980s, we issued gale warnings. Sometime in the early 90s that changed.
I like your advisory torn :) Hurricane Karl which formed near Azores on Nov 25-27 1980 reached a respectable 979 mb and 75 kt winds over 23 C water. Hurricane Nicole in early December 1998 also achieved similar strength in the same area.
Also, thanks to all of you who left constructive comments and compliments to me on the advisories. I really appreciate them.
hey u guys quick update on possible system in the carribean. sorry bout the earlier post on vinvce dissipating but for some reason the wrong image was on the floater i was using. very funny lol. if i was not watching football i would have double checked.

models show possible cyclone forming in northern carribean in 365 hours and prelimanry track, albeit very preliminary, shows a possible landfall near delware or new jersey. we will see what happens but now all models show a slower ridge buidling east so will know more with time, specialy after the system forms.

and on vince. man what a season lol. never heard of a cane over 23-24c waters . thats weird lol
Thanks, StSimons. :)
Hey Lefty, was that 36 or 365 hours? Just seroiusly asking.
lol that should say 36 not 365 hours.
there is a special on Hurricanes on Discovery Channel right now (just started)...
ok guys will be back later. second half of skins game is comming on. 10-14 broncos but we looking good. very good game. check back in a lil bit
Is the media reading this blog or something? My radio station (WCBS) just referenced the same article as the one you guys linked to....
i hav updated my blog, its starting to become a winter weather blog
Lefty hurricanes can sometimes form over 23-24 water and Karl in 1980 and Nicole in 1998 are good examples. Those two hurricanes formed in the center of HUGE cold core upper lows, but in the center of these lows there was no shear. It is believed that the very cold upper level temps enable enough convection to form over the 23-24 C water to create a tropical system. Warm core at the surface transitioning to cold upper levels. Given that the two prior systems were so far away, no reconnaisance plane has ever visited a system like this, which is too bad. Karl was estimated from satellite images, but Nicole had an encounter with a ship that confirmed the hurricane intensity.
There is a series of Specials on Hurricanes this evening on Discovery.
lefty do you pay these people
Hi weatherwannabe, the ULL SE of Bermuda is getting some more convection wrapped in. Do you think it will begin a transfer to warm core?
It amazes me the timing of the articles that NWS needs money, since the bill to privitize all info flowing from the NWS Link is in a committee. Don't reply here or now about it (we've astablished 99 to 1 your against it). One of the senators on the comittee is from my district, I'm in the process of contacting him. Then I'll set up a blog where each can comment & these comments will be forwarded to a place they can make a difference. This seems like more smoke & justifcation to hide this hard to come across bill.
good afternoon, all....been watching football..should have been here instead since the Dolphins lost and several of my "pool" picks also lost. Hopefully the 4pm games will give me better results.

just scanned what has been going on....That beautiful Swirl south of Bermuda is now starting to get better org....is that what you are saying...looks like it on radar.

Is this the one you are talking about from the Carribean?
Is this the one that may affect the NE coast?

Please, let me know. I'm just glad for now that SE Florida
is getting a break.
Looking forward to hearning what all of you say. Love all of your links and information.

PS besides Alpha, Beta, Gamma, etc...does anyone know the Greek Alphabet? What order can we expect to be following soon?

Later and lurking.
Gamma
Hi gamma,

I saw that swirl too. It does seem to be getting some more convection entrained into it. The question is, does it warm up enough to become a tropical cyclone?
Vince is looking better and better to me. Is he the furthest east a hurricane has ever been? I never have heard of a hurricane east of 20 W before.
Yes, StSimons.
are you all takeong about what was TD 22 or is this a new one
Left, what is going on here. ?Hurricane Vince? Is its existence based on sat imagery alone? If not, what. Have checked BBC news and no mention of it. Is there a Euro Weather Serivce? If so, would like to hear their commentary.
I am discounting hurricane Faith of 1966 http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at196606.asp

because there is no WAY hurricane Faith was tropical at over 60 N! The coordinates have her hitting Norway as a Cat 1 hurricane, which is absurd.
are you all talking about TD 22 or is this a new low out there that i do not no of?
There is a new hurricane southwest of Portugal. Look at the national hurricane center site, 8888 www.nhc.noaa.gov
coming...in 2006 a whole new hurricane survival kit to include needed items like mallets and hammers. Also, brand new rules for "how a tropical cyclone can form, what is needed!" Obviously, they need to take out that 26C temp cause thats B.S....What is Mr Vince doing? Showing us ALL that these suckers don't follow any man-made rules. POINT BLANK!!!!!! Anyway, just saw it on the TV and freaked...had to give my 2 cents, so here it is.
Watch out, we may get our Gamma storm in December with winds exceeding 200 mph....this year, anything is possible!
Does anyone see my posts at all? Maybe I'm not supposed to post here. :(
Sorry wxhatt. I do think that SD 22 has a CHANCE to regenerate, but I give it about 30/70 chances.
wxhatt, thanks for your confirmation. if this develops will it be continued as STD22 or become something new since
22 dispated? This is the on-going STD22 and the LLU and the lingering of that entire front, right?

88888, i am reading your questions, but I cannot answer them because I do not really have the information these other bloggers have. I direct my questions to them also.
not ignoring you.
Saint, thanks. Will do
Gamma, I'm almost positive it would be SD 22 again.

Question to All. See a lot of your say you have a websit or blogg and to come visit...where do you find them??? I am still new at this and I cannot find any of you that ask us to visit your sites. Anyway it is hard enough to come into the office between breaks and see what is going on on this blog..I have to "multi-task" at work; don't really like doing it at home..LOL....

I do enjoy all of your information and links that your post on this site. I always look at them...

Keep the info coming. This weather nerd really enjoys it.
Hi all, I'm not even an amateur meteorologist, just a passionate learner, and iIt's really interesting to read your great comments and yes-no-yes-no opinios (when no insults are involved ;) That's where great results come from - questioning 'facts' and sharing your disagreement. It really doesn't matter if you're wrong or right, you broaden the views for futher investigation and eveybody benefits. Its very important to learn new things, because who can know it all? specially after this hurricane season LOL. In Helsinki (Finland) this summer, during the world athletics games, there were several 'trombis' or mini-tornadoes, I'm 55 yrs old and never even heard of one happen so far up in the noth! The Finnish TV said that the winds were reminants of hurricane Maria. Winds were so storg the world games were interrupted, trees fell all over the country, boats capsized and a child died, when a 'trombi' sucked him up in the air and threw him on the pavement. Maybe this season has hit another record... a kid dying in Finland in the aftermath of a seemingly "tame" Atlantic hurricane Maria....
Thanks tornadoty, but I had directed questions to 2 others and they didn't reply. I do appreciate the thought though. Kinda feeling like an outcast here. Well, would expect that anyway (my geographical location lends itself to that). If it does pop, maybe it'll smack me in the face and wake me up. LOL!
There is a series of Specials on Hurricanes this evening on Discovery.

Ummm.. time?
LakeWorthFinn, Maria was not always tame, it reached a peak of 115 miles per hour (category 3), what we consider a major hurricane.
thank you Tornadoty...I thought so also.
Don't worry, wxhatt. I use to feel like that. Just stick around a while.
gamma - click on the person blue name and it will take you to their blogs and pics. :-)
Sorry gamma, didn't realize that you where away from the computer. Your welcome though. :)
thanks Stormy, I will try that.
Welcome LakeWorthFinn,

Sorry to hear about the death in Finland.
well, just checking in and out...see ya tomorrow if you're in here. :-)
Happy Columbus Day (observed) all u lucky ones that got the day off, enjoy it for me.... :-)
LakeworthFinn,
a friend of mine at work was at Helsinki at that meet. Her niece, Sonya Richards, was running. When she came back she said the weather was terrible the entire event. Some nights they could not even go to the events that they had paid to see. Tragic that something like this happens to areas that are not prepared for hurricanes or storms.
Hi Carbo04,

I did air at 6 eastern. Sorry you missed it though.
This info was taken from the weather channel website under tropical weather update. Lefty and others what do you think about this info. True false or unsure?

a broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea is accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms. Over the next day or so, this area of disturbed weather is expected to shift slowly northward along a trough of low pressure extending into the southeast Bahamas. As that happens, locally heavy rain is likely over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Eventually, a tropical or subtropical storm may develop, but such an event would be several days in the future.
* It * did air at 6 PM Eastern. It was on Hurricane Floyd. They are advertising the series on Katrina will come on at 8 PM Eastern now. It looks very interesting too.
thx tornado
I meant "tame" in sense of destruction not category... weird stuff going on. I live in Lake Worth and agree that we're having a break right now, HUH. Hope that's it for this season, though can't really believe it... Went through Katrina, and heeded the warnings. Some didn't, and are dead just a few miles south in Ft Lauderdale & Miami. The Bahamas-Cuba region is cooking something, I tink.
I think you're right, LakeWorthFinn.
Wow Willdd, it's the first I heard of that from the WC, but I could see that occuring though. JB (Joe Bastardi of Accuweather) has been saying that he thinks there is going to be an east coast runner that breaks the pattern into fall.
Hey All, Paul Cosin is on the WC now saying that Colorado is going to get a major snowstorm.
I am so glad I'm not the only person that likes to watch those weather stories on History or Storm Stories on TWC....
I will be going to bed watch TV soon. What is it that is going on tonight, what channel and what time?
It's begining to take shape now. They think up to a couple feet for Denver!

Area Radar:

Link
Hey, did you guys hear that even Sesame Street got hit by a hurricane this year. Don't know what the category was, but it looks like a cat. 1, maybe Ophelia?
Hey Gamma,

There is a series of Documentries coming on The Discovery Channel about Hurricane Katrina and the aftermath.

Schedule:

Link
Could anyone tell me where to find a satellite loop on the disturbed area nortwest of Cuba? If in Spanish, no problema
sry, north-EAST of cuba, lol
2 or 3 feet of snow in Denver no way is jim from TWC going to Denver this time around or is any one not look at the TWC at this time to find out let me no
Did Big Bird fly away, maybe it would have to have been a cat. 3 for that, lol.
Sorry, the link failed.

Here are the air times (Eastern):

8:00 pm

Killer Hurricane - Anatomy
of Katrina

9:00 pm

How The Levees Failed

10:00 pm

SOS: Coast Guard Rescue
No, but his nest was destroyed, so reports The Weather Channel.
lol tornadoty!

Hey now, I really rely on the ol' WC. But with the computer at hand and all the great info on this blog it's begining to take second hand.
what would a cat 5 hurricane be like for SF and for ca any one no?
8888888889gg, it's not going to happen, don't even concern yourself with it.
You know 8, I don't think a 5 is geographically possible for that zone. I know they have seen remains of some hurricanes though. Maybe a pole shift or something might do that.
wxhatt,
just checked the tv guide. thanks for the info. i think i will sign off and go watch a little action on TV.
My football picks were terrible so I might as well get something to eat and watch tv.
All,
I may check in later. want to stay on top of that system near PR to ensure it does not turn west.
Good night.
i no that i this would like to no
Your welcome Gamma,

We will keep a eye on it for you (no pun intended).
266. dcw
I keep an eyewall on everything.

Gamma, my site is located here
Oh 8, I see, you meant damage wise, if it 'could' happen.

Well, just like what Katrina delivered to the Gulf Coast, it would bring in a terrible storm surge and the winds would break down any structures that could withstand 155+ winds. An terrible thought though...
* couldn't * withstand.

Hey dcw, nice site. I think everyone is flocking here though for some reason.
LakeWorthFinn - Here is a map of available Cuban radar sites:

Link

You can see the disturbance on the Camagey radar.

It is a pity NHC won't work with the Cuban meterologists, when a hurricane center crosses Cuba they act as if it enters a black hole, except for what they can glean from satellite. I am sure these orders come from higher up in the government, but when life and limb are on the line, political differences should be put aside.

Dcw, I PMed you on your site.
This looks an aweful lot like the supposed hurricaine that hit Brasil, in the South Atlantic, last March:
http://www.wunderground.com/geo/BrazilStorm/global/stations/83096.html
http://news.myway.com/top/article/id/394004|top|03-28-2004::01:45|reuters.html
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2004086-0326/Brazil.A2004086.1310.250m.jpg
Hey, MeteoPortugal has issued a gale warning for Madeira.

Nothing else yet. I think they've had a really dry year there so probably they're happy about this storm.

Link
Eh.

Just link to it:

Link
thnx guygee!
"It is a pity NHC won't work with the Cuban meterologists, when a hurricane center crosses Cuba they act as if it enters a black hole, except for what they can glean from satellite. I am sure these orders come from higher up in the government, but when life and limb are on the line, political differences should be put aside."

Actually, when it comes to meteorology there is alot of cooperation as it behooves both countries. While the Cuban Gov't won't allow the Air Force planes over their territorial waters, they have allowed NOAA planes to investigate trop systems. Previous US admins have been on better terms with the Castro regime however, in the interest of science and humanity the meteorologists have ALWAYS shared info to the best of their abilities and will continue to do so. Alot of their technology is fly by the seat of your pants and hard-earned but reliable. It is valued by the folks here in MIA at the NHC
Hi Everyone, I just popped in and noticed the pic in Dr. Master's blog is showing something right off the Florida East Coast. Where did that come from???
Wow, the ULL has really moved west since this this
afternoon, she's located at about 25.63N 63.75W now.
"Former" STD22 is swinging again on her NE side, its lower
level swirl now covered in convection. Meanhwhile the ULL
itself continues to show slowly increasing convection
forming in and curling into it's core.


By definition, if the core of an ULL becomes filled with
strong convection, it is no longer an ULL, especially if high-level outflow is in place.

888, the building codes are diff for earthquake and hurricane, I have a feeling that CAT5 would take out the buildings set up to survive earthquakes. It would take an engineer to answer this question. But CA wouldn't make it very well I don't think
yeah, cococreek, I saw that too and wondered what it is, maybe an aberration???
Hey cgableshurrycanegal, did you get to see my last advisory?

Link
LOL no buildings to well in a category 5 put a direct hit of a hurricane of category 5 on a downtown are,the winds are just to intense in a category 5 for buildings.
Thanks for setting me straight cgableshurrycanegal! I've noticed the lack of recons, it must have been because the available planes were Air Force. Since these are peaceful missions, I guess Cuba should be a little less sensitive and allow the flights for the sake of it's own citizens.

Anyways, it is good to know that meteorological professionals put aside their political differences and work together when the need arises. If only we could all be so professional!
ooohhh a ghost hurricane just in time for Halloween :)
went and checked it out! good job!
CoconutCreekFLA - It could be the remnant swirl from Tammy, that passed over the peninsula yesterday afternoon (?). I have not tracked the entire day, so just speculation.
Thanks cgableshurricanegal! Appreciate it!
cococreek you too funny - gonna feed dogs, bb later!
Hey tornadoty,

That's amazing that you've already had an inquiry from Portugal.

"Hello

I was just doing a search on the web about Vince, and I found this site.
I live in Portugal near (very, very near) the ocean... could this storm reach us?"

This just shows you how linked the world is through the WWW.
Heys guys, for those of you with kids, I've got a great idea. If they want to scare people for halloween, just dress them up as hurricanes!
This is fun.

Here is a Portuguese hurricane warning. For the Algarve (the southernmost part of Portugal, and where my family is from, incidentally):

Link

3 Feira, 11 de Outubro de 2005 - Third-day forecast for 11 October 2005:

Cu muito nublado.

It will be very cloudy.

Vento fraco a moderado (10 a 25 km/h) de sudoeste, soprando moderado.

Light to moderate winds from the southeast becoming moderate late in the day...

(25 a 35 km/h) nas regies do litoral e forte (36 a 50 km/h), com rajadas at 70 km/h nas terras altas.

25-35 km/hr from coastal areas and stronger 36-50 km/hr with gusts above 70 km/hr in the hills.

Aguaceiros, mais frequentes e intensos durante a noite e manh.

Thunderstorms, most frequent and intense during the late night and early morning.

Pequena descida da temperatura mxima, mais significativa nas regies do Sul.

Very little change from the daily maximum temperature, most significantly in the southern regions.

4 Feira, 12 de Outubro de 2005 - Fourth-day forecast, 12 October 2005.

Perodos de cu muito nublado.

Periods of total cloudiness.

Vento moderado (15 a 25 km/h) de sudoeste durante a noite e incio da manh, soprando moderado a forte (25 a 40 km/h), com rajadas nas regies do litoral e forte (40 a 55 km/h), com rajadas at 75 km/h, nas terras altas. A partir da manh o vento ser fraco a moderado (10 a 25 km/h) do quadrante oeste, soprando moderado (20 a 30 km/h)
nas terras altas. Aguaceiros, mais frequentes e intensos durante a noite e manh. Pequena descida da temperatura mxima.

Moderate winds (15-25 km/h) from SE during the night extending into the early morning hours... becoming moderate to strong winds with higher gusts on the coasts and stronger yet with gusts to above hurricane force in the higher elevations. Winds will lessen as the day progresses. Thunderstorms, most frequent and intense during night and early morning. Very little difference between the daily maximum and minimum temperatures.

FORECASTER FERNANDES

Heh.
Yep, I was just as amazed as you.
looks like TD 22 is trying to come back any one would like to stop by my blog
LOL esspeacially in areas where they hit.Oh and WXHATT Vince is forecasted to weaken rapidly over much cooler waters before it makes landfall and then obsorbed by a frontal trough.
Why are they issuing a hurricane warning when it is heading towards much cooler waters and a front is forecast to obsorb it?I guess they are not as advance as the NHC lol,though I am not surprised though.
Its not really a hurricane warning.

They are going to get a lot of wind and rain, and that is what their forecast says. I was being silly (which doesn't translate well into Internetese).
Well strong winds in the mountains are possible but much cooler waters and an approaching trough will almost certainly dissapate it completely before landfall.
I think they are counting on the weather not so much from Vince but from the front.

They would have to rename him "Vicenzo" in any event...

:D
No the winds prably will not be a factor as it could completely dissapate but some higher rainfall is possible esspecially in the mountains but portugal is NOT tropical and as it moves over cooler waters the rain will not be quite as heavy eather because it will stop generating deep moist tropical convection which will colapse the system but gusty winds stronger in the mountains,and some hevier rain more pronouced in the mountains is all they will likely get.
Yea Jedkins, I don't think it can survive as a hurricane in those conditions. They will get some wind out it though.
For those who are interested,

There is going to be a live report from snowy Colorado coming up shortly on the Weather Channel.
Just think, increased hurricane and snowstorm activity, what next? The Day After Tomorrow?
Time to break out the ski's, whoo hoo.
The Day After Tomorrow is Tuesday and I would hate to even think of a weather situation such as that of the movie.
wxhatt oh is doing the live up date on the TWC is it jim
Yea ProgressivePulse,

Leave to Hollywood to over dramatize though. They say it would take quite a few years to see a mini ice age if the thermohaline belt really shut down.
Where is a good satellite photo for Vince? (not some squashed thing at the edge of the picture). I am looking over that portuguese meteorology site that azduck posted. Hey Azduck, can you find a satellite close up of Vince?
No 8, it was Mike Bennett, but you may catch another update at 10 eastern (just a guess though).
st here is a floater loop of vince. enjoy

Link
you are not going to get something like the "day after tomorrow" ever happen! I mean where it talks about -150F air that does not warm as it goes lower in the atmosphere and temperatures droppping 10 degrees a second and frost chasing people down halls. Pure silliness :)
Or a super winter hurricane like cyclone lol.
k u guys. getting off again. was just checking in. my redskins lost today. got me way down lol. very good game though. can;t ask anything else but to be in it at the end and had the ball been thrown a second later we would have gotten the 2 point to tie it. but u can;t win them all. cinci and jax game looking real good so i will be watching that.

no change on my thoughts about the system that is to develop near pr per the global models. will have a new full update on my prediction of this system when the next model runs come out around 100am
Lefty do you think Steve Gregory could be right about Vince really being on top of 25-26 C water ?
wxhatt where is he at in co? and is it snowing there right now nic to see it in the snow for a lol and not doing a live up dat on a hurricane
Hi Lefty,

Nice to see your back on. Get ready for some big snows this winter. JB is going to put out the Accuweather Winter forcast soon. Maybe we will see a couple Nor Easters pop this winter during cold outbreaks. He was hinting about the warm waters in the north atlantic lending to that.
Thats a good link lefty, thanks but it is visible--which means that it is at least 7-8 hours old, since the sun set there then. Anything more recent on Vince?
st no.vonce is not over 25-26 degree sst. i have looked at all sst maps that are upto date and he is 200+ miles from any water close to 25 let alone 26 degree temps. this is just one of those things and i think it has tropical chrateristics but is not trully tropical but its a hurricane none the less. so go figure. i think steve is doing what i was doing this morning and trying to figure out how this one formed and has maintained its strength and intensified over sst it is over. tells u we do not know as much as we think we know and that maybe sst are not as big as we thought. maybe its a combo of things but we may neevr know for sure how this happened
I'm making my guess on this strange system (based on the 5:00 advisory):

Current - 34.2/18.6 - 987mb - 75mph
6 hrs - 35.0/18.0 - 985mb - 75mph
12 hrs - 35.6/17.0 - 990mb - 65mph
24 hrs - 37.3/14.9 - 989mb - 65mph Becoming Extratropical
36 hrs - 39.5/11.5 - 982mb - 75mph Extratropical
48 hrs - 42.6/8.6 - 985mb - 70mph Extratropical
60 hrs - 44.5/4.2 - 991mb - 60mph Extratropical
72 hrs - Absorbed by a front
st that ir. its not visble just bw ir and is recent as of 30 mins
opposing concern is Vince, not just Vince but the whole year. Things forming when predicted not to, so many large scale storms when shoulden't be. With all those new trends how can any model or forcast be accurate? Seems like once a week there is a new first in the Hurricane season.
He said he was to the west of Denver or something. Don't remeber the city, only that it was somewhat west of that.
Hi All....just a little food for thought. Did a little research (source is primarily WU archives).

1) Since 1990, there have been 17 hurricanes form in the Atlantic/Carib. on or after Oct. 14th. There were numerous TS formed that I did not count.

2) Of those, 7 formed in November.

3) Of the total 17, many were fish storms, however 10 made landfall. Only two made landfall on the U.S.

4) Hurricane Olga (2001) survived until appx. 04 Dec; Hurricane Nichole (1998) survived until appx. 02 Dec.

Just thought that was interesting.
At least 2 late season full scale hurricanes have formed over similar water temps and not too far away. I told you earlier about how they formed in the centers of large upper level lows with unusually cold and large cores, and they made enough convection to form into hurricanes before. And at the center--not much shear.
Progressive - So many good questions, so many controversial answers.
wx thanks but we have already all agredd to this and i tend to look more at the lack of elnino as part of it as much as the warm sst. we have nor'easters every year but tracks with the jet stream rae the big players and when there is no el nino the jets stream is set up for massive nor'easters. i belive 3-5 days ago i said to expect 3 strong nor'easters and to have atleast 1+foot of snow from each storm thru va where i live.
Hey 8, you might want to turn on the Weather Channel now. I think they are going to do another Live Update from Colorado. ;)
p.s. Hurricane Lenny (1999) was a cat 5, as was Hurricane Mitch (1998). Again, WU archives were primary source.
progressive, all the models had vince forming, just with his lattitude he like i assumed he was extratropicla. thats why oi gave him no thought. i even said to sj the other day spain was going to be hammered by a strong extratropical; storm. i was refering to vince.

the models have been really good wioth formation this year. i don;t know what models ur looking at but mostly the gfs and thew uk met have formed almost all storms that formed. even the gfs called for both nate and ophelia and rita and katrina. only one i can rem,ebr that got by was stan
Very interesting hurricanecrab, thanks for the stats. :)
WX... you bet.... of course, just the manner in which I sorted these storms skews the stats a bit.
If anyone wants to talk winter weather or any weather basically, you can go to my blog. I put some stuff up there about the tropics and the snow lol

Link
here is the gfs image from 3 days ago for today.notice vince right where he is now in the gfs image for today. now i assumed that was extratropical but we all just miss read themodels


So right guygee, how can you answer the question. No way, just sit and be marveled by the weeks occurance, what's around the next corner. Off subject for all. The ULL of 22 is tracking west, the Low tracking east in the midwest is looking like a semi direct hit, would these two lows act like opposing magnets persay and force ULL 22 to the south? Just wondering what the models are picking up on off the Fla. coast in the map on Jeff's Blog.
Ok Lefty, break out the snow shovels then! Woo Hoo!
Hello all
This is only my second time on here, so please bare with me, can anyone tell me if Fla is in the path of ANY of these waves?
progressive the next storm to form will be a new low that will form south of pr in 36 hrs. the ull is moving north and will weaken as will the llc from std 22. this low is forcasted to form a cyclone and possibly hit the east coast, say va or north. to early to tell but i have been talking about this system for days. its the only system to form in the atlantic for 5 days per the gfs and ll the other global models. if u look at ir imagery u can see the convection that has persisted for 30+ hours now. most if that convection is due to convergence from the ull and a troipical wave. that is where our next storm will form. none of this was a suprise to me like it was you, i just though he was extratropical. any questions i be glad to answer.

here is a link to the latest gfs sp you can see what i am talking about

Link
right now there is no cyclone to threaten fl in 5-10 days. everythign will be forced north of florida and most likley affect themid atlantic if it affects the us at all. i will have a full up date at 100am when the rest of the global models come out.
Dr. Masters has a new post.
I looked at your Blog Weathermandan; looks good and very detailed. Is Mount Place in the upstate of NY?
progressive what map are u talking about. so i could explain to u what it says as i have not seen anything thats anything that will affect florida any time soon
Thank you Lefty. I have been watching this blog for quite sometime now, and I have read what you have weitten, and I have to say I am impressed. You are very knowledgable. I am going on a trip on Thursday and I really didnt want to leave my family home if there was a chance of a storm hitting the Orlando area. THANK YOU!!!
wxhatt-Mount Place isn't actually the town hahaha it's Mount Sinai/Miller Place. I just combine the two because I have lots of friends in both and a lot of people reference both areas at the same time. plus I thought Mount Place sounds cool :-D hehe (yeah I have too much free time...)
I am an amature lefty, I don't follow the moedels at all just by what is posted here, but have lived here in south fla for 3 years and visited grandparents for many years before. Just saying when has the Katrina, Ophillia and Rita thing happened? Just the latest occuance of weather in the past 2 years. I went through Francis and Jeanne last year, did not sleep a wink for either, my first hurricanes, it was an awesome experience. I guess I was more posting a question on the models and how they can be accurate if there are so many first time occurances. Right the GFS had Vince but did anyone at all even pass a thought at it being a Hurricane??
lefty stop posting those huge images. It screws up the blog for everyone. Thanks.
Hurricane Lenny was a Cat 4 as I remember with pressure of 933 mb and winds of 155. However a nasty hurricane in Nov 1932 crossed central Cuba and had a central pressure of 916 mb (27.05") which was the lowest recorded on land in the western hemisphere at that time. This hurricane also killed more than 3,000 people at a time when the whole population of Cuba was less than 3 million!
the ULL question was just that, a question, I am trying to learn. I was looking at the WV loop on NHC.
St. Simmons - yes, that unnamed hurricane of '32 hit the Cayman Islands (Cayman Brac in particular) and also killed 110 people here in Cayman. It hit here on 08 Nov.
wannabe, if it messes up peoples comp so what. they can go into there browser and have it compress those images so it does not load them duh.


progressive what are u talking about? u rattled off a bunch of hurricanes but i don;t see anything the models did or didn;t do woith those storms. maybe because ur only method of seeing whats happeniong is this blog u don;t see alot of what actually happens like what all themodels are saying. thats why u don;t make statements like you did based on little if any knowledge of the models as i am talking about them and some people might think the models are completely lost when infact they have been right on including everything that has happened this week.

1. formation and disspation of std 22- all in the models
2. formation of vince all in the models
3. now formation of a new cyclone near pr looks to be par per all the global models.
Lefty looks like the latest run has the storm sitting off the Carolinas and then taking a turn to the N Ne. What's your thoughts on this? also let's say that it does make to the MidAtlantic how strong best estimate(I know it's early just want an opinion).
pa thats casue thats just ine run of one model. the track is anywehre form a nc landfall to a ne land fall to afish storm. i say cat or 2 at most and late in the period it could encounter alot of shear so thats questionable as well.
trackwill be a timming issue with an approaching cold forn and a retreating high. exact timming will teel where if any landfall will be


guys ther eis a new blog entry. we should all move there
lefty this isn't just your blog. dont be so f'ing selfish
btw, lefty, where is you G o Mex Hurricane? Seen one lately tropical weather pro?
wannabe i have a right to post picture like any one else. so if ur comp or internet is so slow than compress images. takes 2 second for u to tweak ur settings. its not selfish its p[assing info to those who want it and ur claim is base less as thye can alleviate the situation with a simple tweak of there internet options
wannabe never sai there would be a gulf of mexico cane. thats what i have been telling you. i said if one goit into the gulf it could be a major based on sst alone but the chance of another getting into the gulf anf having upper air support is low. u didn;t care what i said. so if no hurricane gets into the gulf neither one of us wins. duh
lefty can't you understand that you are not the only person on the blog?
lefty you need to work on your predictions - they are not your strong point.
and i know i am not the only eprson on the blog but if some one has a problem opening the images they need to tweak their settings, not me stop posting pics. duh
lol ok weannabe well i am going into the new entry so u stay here and talk to ur self some. lol
So..back to the discussion... Multimedia posts are welcome on my PC... So what are your thoughts on this weather system?
Progressive - Was off to visit "888..gg" blog. Nice and peaceful (and friendly) there.

As for continental ULL over Tenn-Ohio valley vs. West Atlantic ULL, standard interaction is for ULL to rotate around each other, east ULL north, west ULL south, if same strength. If very different strengths, stronger ULL pulls weaker ULL around periphery (sort of the same thing).

In this case, continental ULL definitely beginning to pull more north. I though earlier the strong continental ULL and associated SE trough would definitely pull developing Atlantic system towards mid-Atlantic, now I am not so sure, as Atlantic ULL has maintained steady W course, estimate center at 25.45N 64.34W at 1:45 UTC. Check that against my last observation above.


Bizarro-world scenario: Vince moves south of forecast, mid-level vortex survives passage through Straits of Gibralter, storm reforms in Med Sea. :-)
I've got a 64-bit Opteron w/ 2 Gig RAM, linked to internet on cable modem, so pics do not bother me, but links serve the same purpose, and you can skip them by choice. I feel for dial-up users, been there: minutes seem like hours as the image slowly downloads. And THIS blog - very primitive, you have to reload constantly, no ignore/.kill file, no editing, no spell-checker...