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Very active Atlantic hurricane season forecast by NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:45 PM GMT on May 22, 2007

It's going to be a very active 2007 hurricane season in the Atlantic, according to NOAA's seasonal forecast issued today. The NOAA team predicts a very high (75% chance) of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season. They expect 13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes (a normal season has 10-11 named storm, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes). Most of these storms are expected during the usual August-October peak of hurricane season, but NOAA does not give any breakdown of which portions of the coast are more likely to be affected. They give two reasons for predicting an above-normal hurricane season:

1) A continuation of conditions since 1995 that have put us in an active hurricane period (in particular, the fact that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes are currently about 0.6 C above normal, Figure 1).

2) The strong likelihood of either neutral or La Nia conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.


Figure 1. Top: Tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures in the Main Development Region for hurricanes (green box) were 0.6 C above average during March and April 2007. This anomalous warmth is expected to persist though hurricane season. Bottom: The 0.6 C above average temperatures are consistent with the exceptionally warm temperatures seen since 2003. Image credit: NOAA.

How good are these forecasts?
NOAA's long lead hurricane outlook team, which consists of scientists from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (lead: Gerry Bell), National Hurricane center (NHC), and the Hurricane Research Division (HRD), have been making seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1998. If one grades their May forecasts based on predictions of a below average, average, or above average season, NOAA has done pretty well. Seven of their nine forecasts have been correct. Their only failures occurred last year, when they called for a very active season (it was a normal year, with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes), and 2001, when they called for a normal year (it was a very active year, with 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes).

Steering currents for June
It's now possible to say something about the steering currents for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins June 1. A hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season is no big deal if the steering currents are your friend! The forecast jet stream pattern for the next two weeks from the GFS model is similar to last year's pattern. I expect we'll see a series of troughs of low pressure marching across the Atlantic Ocean through early June, which is typical for this time of year. The Bermuda High is in its usual location, and there are no signs of the unusual steering pattern of 2005 that brought so many hurricanes over the U.S.. It is still to early to say what the steering patterns will do during peak hurricane season, August through October, though.

The Dr. Bill Gray/Phil Klotzbach's team at Colorado State University issues their updated Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 31 next week, and I'll be sure to make a post about that forecast.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thnks, dr.
Thanks Dr.Masters on the update on steering currents and lets hope for persistant trofiness once again.
Their predictions are very close to my own predictions of 13 - 16 storms, 6 - 9 hurricanes, and 3 - 6 major hurricanes.
I don't see what Dr. Masters is talking about with a "series of troughs".I only see one major trough on the 12z run.Link
Very interesting ... Dr. Masters, how stable are the steering currents across a typical hurricane season? (maybe a future update) Thanks!
If last years pattern roles threw the upcoming months bermuda will be under the gun again.
Here is the 384 hour forecast for the upper air flow from the GFS:



Wht it was last year at the same time(upper air flow is the top right box):

It would be nice if that June 01 / 02 gfs forcast Dr. Masters posted came true!
Also,south Florida May rainfall,barring a TS as the GFS is forecasting....should end up slightly below average.That almost always leads to a hurricane hit.I think there was only one instance out of 15 or 16 when it hasn't.
Regarding the SSTs, I have noticed quite a bit of cooling recently across the Atlantic, to the point where negative anomalies are starting to appear in parts of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean; for example, May 1, May 10 and May 21.

Also, is the Bermuda High supposed to be as strong as it is now (well over 1030 mb)? It is a lot stonger than it was not too long ago, when it almost seemed to disappear at times because it was so weak.
12. IKE
Here's the latest 12 UTC GFS run. It still has a low forming in the western Caribbean...heading NNE...crossing northern/northeastern Florida. It's been consistent...

Link
I made a comment on those anomalies a few weeks ago.
STL,the Bermuda high in May is usually 1020 to 1025mb,according to this:

GFS has it back to normal by next week:

So it is stronger than normal... and possibly driving stronger trades and resulting in cooling of the ocean, or preventing it from warming up as much.
Wait a miniute, hopefully that GFS doesn't come true, I am moving starting Thursday the 31'st. Lovely! Have to pull an all nighter maybe, ugg!
And TCHP is very high(higher than even '05) in the Carribean and around the U.S.,particuarly Florida.What if there's another Katrina-like storm off the coast,with much higher TCHP?Or a Wilma?



20. 0741
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS IS TRYING AGAIN TO SPIN UP A LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND MOVE IT TOWARDS SOUTH
FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND JUST KEEP THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. SO WILL THROUGH OUT THE GFS
MODEL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND KEEP A BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS OVER
THE CWA WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY HOURS the weather service are putting gfs in trash for next week
BBL guys.
The Bermuda High isn't the only high that is stronger than normal:

I was gonna bother you guys to define what the "Bermuda High" really is, but instead I just looked it up. Lotsa weather dummies like me don't know what some things are. But now I know more than I did. :)

Bermuda High
TO GIVE SOME INFORMATION ON WHAT THE EXTENDED SOLUTION OF THE GFS IS
PROVIDING IS REALLY GOING OUT ON A LIMB. THERE IS A VERY WEAK BUT
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ NEAR THE
PANAMA CANAL AREA AND NORTHWESTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS
QUITE COMMON ALONG THE ITCZ THIS TIME OF YEAR AS IT MOVES
NORTHWARD WITH THE SUMMER SEASON. THE GFS KEEPS THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED FROM THE BAHAMAS TO NEAR NICARAGUA. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS IS TRYING TO PULL THIS AREA TOWARD THAT OLD
BOUNDARY. NO OTHER MODEL SUITE TRIES TO DO THIS AND SIMPLY DAMPENS
THE OLD FRONT. LONG STORY SHORT...WE MAY SEE THE GFS GOING BACK
AND FORTH QUITE A BIT OVER THIS TROPICAL SEASON. SO TO CONFIRM ONE
EXTENDED SOLUTION OVER ANOTHER WOULD NOT BE THE MOST PROFESSIONAL
DECISION TO MAKE...ESPECIALLY WHEN PASSING 132 HOURS IN ANY
FORECAST.
Interesting, but after last year's bust in forecasting the season, I am going to wait and see :)
I think weather predicting is far to complex they rarely get the weekend report correct :c(
We could use a little low pressure system and about 6-10 inches of rain. The swamp is getting low here in Florida.
gfs 12z is calling for a disruption in the jetstream around jun2

Afternoon all ☺

FS, I like you need a lot of learning.
Dr Masters,
What were the steering currents like at this time of the years in 2005? Were they already set up to direct the storms closer to the United States or did they set up later in the season?

Thanks
Patrick
Hello all. 1st post. I believe the predictions above will be wrong. This year will be like last year. NO STORMS. Why? Gulf temps are still cool. 20 miles off shore on Friday and water was 78. Should be well into 80's by now. Also not normal for this year are the constant North winds leaving us with little humidity and very little rain. I could be wrong but this is not typical SW FL weather. I know this could all change quickly but my guess is same as last hear and all the years before 2005. 05 was just a freak of nature.
ya we need it bad, vert dry here in central Florida, probably the worst short term drought ive ever seen here in living here 12 years.
Officials Plan for Fewer Hurricane Hunter Flights this Season

Although forecasters predict an active hurricane season, federal officials said crews will fly fewer hurricane hunter flights from the MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla..

Officials hope that reducing flights will make missions more efficient, said Philip Kenul, commander of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Aircraft Operations Center in Tampa.

"We're just trying to be a little bit smarter about the way we spend federal dollars,'' Kenul said.

NOAA officials have planned for 354 hours of flying time for hurricane-related missions during this fiscal year, the St. Petersburg Times reported. In 2005, 707 hours were allocated for the flights out of Tampa.

Kenul said additional funds from the National Weather Service will help pay for more flying time. The National Weather Service is part of NOAA. He also said crews will fly additional missions if necessary, regardless of budget constraints.

any news on the big wave that came off the coast of africa . will it do anything ? looks strong
Posted By: MIsland321 at 5:49 PM GMT on May 22, 2007.

Hello all. 1st post. I believe the predictions above will be wrong. This year will be like last year. NO STORMS. Why? Gulf temps are still cool. 20 miles off shore on Friday and water was 78. Should be well into 80's by now. Also not normal for this year are the constant North winds leaving us with little humidity and very little rain. I could be wrong but this is not typical SW FL weather. I know this could all change quickly but my guess is same as last hear and all the years before 2005. 05 was just a freak of nature.



I wouldn't comsider your idea to be crazy only because weather can be quite unpredictable at times which gives your idea a chance of being right.

But as far as avaiable data goes, you are gonna want to place your forecast around that and data disgrees with your thinking on this year quite a bit.

So over all, its a wait and see game. But its clear to mr the chance of it being more than normal activity is higher than normal activity.
Nothing like cutting 250 hours from the hunters.
39. IKE
"We're just trying to be a little bit smarter about the way we spend federal dollars,'' Kenul said.

While we're spending billions every month trying to play referees in a civil war in Iraq.

OK.
Nothing will touch the 2005 season for a while. We will have to see how the GW thing turns out in the next 15-20 years.
"We're just trying to be a little bit smarter about the way we spend federal dollars,'' Kenul said.

Yeah, like spending it on a bogus anniversary party!
One difference between this year and last is the El Nino/La Nina pattern, that's for certain. I can't tell you how many storms were headed toward the east coast and then blown back out to sea last year, but someone else probably can. I think one of them even ended up in Ireland!
models try and paint 40% rain chances for today because of a weak uppere trough bringing in colder air aloft.

Ufortunately I don't buy that, dewpoints are only in the upper 50's to around 60, and although the air is colder aloft, its still very dry, which will shred any building cumulous.

I just don't think you can get any convection going unless you have deep surface moisture and 70 degree dewpoints unless you a low pressure system creating enough vertical forcing to get those clouds building.

I see no vertical development in the clouds today and unless there is a big surge in surface moisture our so called "best chance" of seeing rain till a possible big increase in moisture by next week looks to be bust :[.

Even then, can't trsut that big increase next week till I see it, altough its definitely believable considering wet season start is soon approaching by next week.
Posted By: iceman25 at 2:00 PM EDT on May 22, 2007.

all we can do is get ready .Very active Atlantic


Yeah, if everyone prepared well in advance there would be no chaos if a storm did approach! Maybe if everyone took a half hour out of their day now to fill up gas cans, there would be no ridiculous gas lines & fuel would not go up so much in price. You would think after 2004 w/4 storms hitting Florida people would start preparing little by little at the beginning of the year. Still, it never ceases to amaze me that chaos still reigns!
Posted By: Chicklit at 6:02 PM GMT on May 22, 2007.

One difference between this year and last is the El Nino/La Nina pattern, that's for certain. I can't tell you how many storms were headed toward the east coast and then blown back out to sea last year, but someone else probably can. I think one of them even ended up in Ireland!



I agree, there was a sudden rapid onset of el nino last year that wasn't forseen, that was what made it inactive.

We don't have that this year, and with wet conmditions in Africa and no sign of any chunks of dust coming off, onces things get kickin, they weill really get kickin unless shear remains high. But so far all indications say it should relax quite a bit as we head into the seaon.
51. IKE
I took my dogs out to relieve themselves and I saw an amazing sight...a cloud!
LOL Ike! Imagine that. I haven't seen a cumulonimbus cloud in ages. I'd probably wet myself the next time I see one!
One thing for certain, here in New Smyrna we already have severely eroded beaches. And the depression last week that lingered has only cut further into what we DON't have...so expect utter disaster along the coast here if we get hit. Meanwhile, our county managers voted 68 million to shore up an Ocean Center in Daytona that hasn't brought in a dime while property owners all along the coast are being hit with big taxes year and in year out...and they don't even get sand when the state DEP is offering matching funds...We even had 'free sand' coming this spring from an Inlet dredging project that our city planner turned down until after the hurricane season!!! Talk about crazy...sand is much cheaper than replacing buildings and contents. The county could have 'piggy-backed' on the 'free sand' and combined that with the matching funds from the state to add 100-ft. to the most severely eroded beach. Very poor planning with no 'civic minded' leadership.
I agree with Dr. Masters assessment on the pattern. I commented about that earlier today.
Here is what a 40% chance of rain looks like here in Florida Link
or here Link
Did NOAA hget asked any questions about the fires and their effect on the Hurricane season if any?
I'm hoping for many a weak tropical storm...that fizzle yet refill Florida's aquifers.
If Dr Masters or anyone else can answer this for me, I'd be much obliged. Is the Bermuda High in the position it was in last year, to recurve a lot of storms, or is it further west this year? I want a serious answer; no wishcasing answer just because someone wants or does not want a tropical cyclone to hit land (no offense to anyone, but I really do want honest answers).
63. IKE
Posted By: BoyntonBeach at 1:33 PM CDT on May 22, 2007.
or here Link


That Melbourne radar is down for maintenance...must be a sloooow day.
Posted By: IKE at 5:00 PM GMT on May 22, 2007.

Here's the latest 12 UTC GFS run. It still has a low forming in the western Caribbean...heading NNE...crossing northern/northeastern Florida. It's been consistent...

Yeah, so far the GFS has been consistently wrong! I have posted for the last three years that the GFS has problems in June handling the transition of heat coming north out of the tropics... The GFS usually becomes more reliable in August and September...
66. 0741
Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket how pressure in area of bahamas and shear?
The Bermuda High is in its usual location, and there are no signs of the unusual steering pattern of 2005 that brought so many hurricanes over the U.S.

I know that last year it was much further east and in 2005 it was further west, so the East Coast may have a higher threat this year if storms follow a path that is in the middle of the two extremes (2005 - Gulf; 2006 - open Atlantic; 2007 = East Coast?).
We might see something like this this year:

I'm not even going to justify your asinine comment with a response.

Moving on.
STL- Florida (both coasts) will be in much more danger if the High sets up a little further west and south than last year.

Unfortunately, it's still too early to tell how the High is going to shape up for the meat of the season.
Do not return insults here. Flag the comment, and ignore it.
Any chance that the area of disturbed weather, in the Bahamas will get better organized if the sheer, from the west starts to weaken? How are the pressures in that area?
Pressures are high and that shear is around 70-80kts currently. The pattern is not expected to change much in the next couple of weeks.
Dr. Masters posted in his blog: The forecast jet stream pattern for the next two weeks from the GFS model is similar to last year's pattern. I except we'll see a series of troughs of low pressure marching across the Atlantic Ocean through early June, which is typical for this time of year. The Bermuda High is in its usual location, and there are no signs of the unusual steering pattern of 2005 that brought so many hurricanes over the U.S..

I am not sure, but it sounds like Dr. Masters maybe engaging in a little gambling of his own... To rely upon the unreliable GFS, to make a forecast two weeks out, is stepping out on a limb.

I believe that the Azores High is much stronger this year, than last year at this time. The Azore high usually is about 1024mb this time of year, currently it is at 1036mb, and ridging clear across to the East Coast of the U.S., into a second high center, the Bermuda High. It appears to me, that the troughs coming off the East coast will have difficulty making much progress into SW Atlantic over the next two weeks, as last year.

We will see over the next two weeks, whether Dr. Masters was correct in comparing the June 2007 pattern to that of last June...

JeffMasters, I like the Atlantic SST graph you displayed, it really shows the cycles of the SSTs. I also (see "cycle forecasting") issued a forecast for an interesting hurricane season, especially Northeast Texas, West Coast Florida, and Long Island- Southern New England. The above SSTs will continue this year and next year, then this cycles will end and SSTs will fall below mean values after the winter of 2007-2008 strong El Nino.
MichaelSTL, I couldn't agree more.

Check out 1996.
1996

The Carolinas and up here in the Northeast might get brushed or hit by a few storms this year.
The last hurricane here was 1991. I know a lot has changed since then along the coasts. If we get a Gloria-sized storm making landfall along Western Long Island this season, many will be unprepared for the wrath coming their way.
There has been a lot of backdoor cold fronts this spring from some sprawling areas of high pressure. I wouldn't be surprised for a decent stretch or two of this summer to be dominated by a rex-block pattern. With the westerlies becoming blocked up this could allow some storms to ride further west before being caught.
Hate to say this to the parched Florida residents, but we are getting even MORE rain we DO NOT need here. Dry season was supposed to have already started this month. Funny how both sides of the Atlantic are balancing each other.

P.S. Hey Buddy. I got some water to sell ya!!

Just a joke. Please dont anyone slam me!
I believe that the Azores High is much stronger this year, than last year at this time. The Azore high usually is about 1024mb this time of year, currently it is at 1036mb

It indeed is much stronger, and is causing cooling due to strong trades; below normal areas are starting to appear in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. If this continues, I expect to see lowered numbers (the same thing happened last year; Dr. Masters talked about it last June).
It shouldn't continue though Mike.Have you seen the GFS?Has the high weakening(to even weaker than normal),and it stays weak through the end of the run.
Now your talking Sullivan! We definitely could end up seeing that kind of pattern develop, at least for the beginning of the season.
LOL,funny AFD:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...BIG MAKER THIS WEEK ACROSS S FLA WILL BE STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS. DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM
CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS. OLD SFC TROUGH BOUNDARY ALSO CONTINUES ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS INTO THE FLA STRAITS. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TO CREATE SCT SHRA FROM TIME TO TIME TO ADVECT THESE ONTO SE CST.
INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVITY OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS AND THIS WILL THEN ADVECT TO THE W CST. BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM SHOW DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY LOWERING POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. THE SFC HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE THIS WEEK LESSENING
THE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION LOWERING THE WINDS A TAD. SO PRETTY
MUCH STATUS QUO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE GFS DOES SHOW AS
THE HIGH MOVES E OUR WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND THIS
MAY ADVECT SOME OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR S BACK OVER US LEADING TO
AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION. THE GFS FINALLY HAS COMPLETELY
BACKED OFF ON THE FORMATION OF A CARIBBEAN LOW SO NOW DOES THIS
MEAN IT WILL HAPPEN?


The above SSTs will continue this year and next year, then this cycles will end and SSTs will fall below mean values after the winter of 2007-2008 strong El Nino.

Care to explain how that will happen (below normal Atlantic SSTs and a strong El Nino)?
I don't know why they said that,though.The GFS has a TS rolling through the state at 216h.
I believe that the Azores High is much stronger this year, than last year at this time. The Azore high usually is about 1024mb this time of year, currently it is at 1036mb

I can sure vouch for that. The last 4 days we have had almost gale force winds here from the north and northwest because of the very strong Azores high and a low sitting over Spain and me being in between.
I don't think that the SST's are going to fluctuate much, either upward or downward. The factor that will either make this a hairy season or not will be the wind shear and positioning of the Azores High.
Sorry, Typo on the years, should be 2008-2009 El Nino winter followed by extended Atlantic Basin SST cooling cycle... thank you for bringing that to my attention.
And....what methods are you using to come to that conclusion?
weatherboykris, by using the PFM "Primary Forcing Mechansim" for climate cycles. I have a manuscript under private peer review and it should go to a journal later this summer. The manuscript is on the El Nino and PFM.
Misland,

Sorry for the slow response. I concur with what other posters have said regarding the El Nino/La Nina situation. Furthermore, the Gulf isn't cooler than normal. I don't question your 78F observation as latest SST maps back you up on that. But maybe your persepective got skewed by recent years being even warmer? I don't know. All I know is the Gulf is actually warmer than normal. In fact, st this same time in 2005 the Gulf was actually cooler than it is now (except for a small pocket around Louisiana). One last point, precipitation patterns related to El Nino/La Nina (measured in an index called the ESPI) actually has a stronger correlation to Atlantic hurricane activity that the traditional El Nino/La Nina flags (Pacific SSTs); this index has been more representative of a La Nina than the SSTs (though it has rebounded significantly in the last week).

I'm certainly not guaranteeing anything. As we saw last year, these seasonal forecasts can get easily blown out of the water. But their track record for at least getting on the correct side of normal is pretty good. That's because we usually at least have a fair idea whether or not Atlantic and Pacific water temps will be above or below normal. When that prediction is wrong - like last year in the Pacific - that's when the seasonal activity forecast gets torpedoed. So, certainly no sure bets. But I'd anticipate an active season.
Good Afternoon All!

Hey everybody
hey!!!! rip pop pop
Thank You very much for the update Dr. Masters
good afternoon to everyone

Just checking in to see whats up. Not too much in the tropics by the looks of things. The Caribbean has calmed down, shear is still high and no systems brewing on the horizon. Interesting forecast out today though confirming earlier predictions.

Lets hope the Bermuda high is far out to sea this yr.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

Very interesting information when I was reading story from NOAA.gov

Link 1

Link 2
here is something to think about. if we have a neutral La Nina this year, would that then imply we could see a year much like 2005?
it seems that dr. masters forgot that they were wrong in 2005. so that makes it 3 out of 7 years.
theres still all this hype about 2005. lets not forgot 2004. just because its not gonna be year like 2005 does not mean easy sailing. look at 2004. fl got hit with 4 major storms. bad year, bad bad bad year. now sit booboo
Afternoon all ☺

pws, I think the potential for development could be similar, as La Nia years are, but track is a different beast I think. I am not sure that I agree with the Dr about the high and the troughs being the same as last year. Yes there are troughs, although they do not seem to be forecast to be as strong as they have been the past several weeks. The high seems to be bridging back fairly strong this year with every trough that passes, whereas last year the bridiging never really seemed to kick in if I remember correctly. Also the high seemed to me to be much further E last year. Almost centered E of the Azores Islands at times. That said, I am geussing that La Nia influences development more so then track? Any thoughts?
key west, interesting thing. You have not had a major system in a while. You guys are way overdue as is Broward County/Miami Dade overdue for a Major Atlantic storm. So the question is, who gets nailed this year.
The East Pacific Hurricane forecast is completely opposite from the Atlantic Hurricane Season. This is due to the forming La Nina.

NOAA scientists are forecasting a 70% probability of a below-normal eastern Pacific hurricane season during 2007, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of an above-normal season. This hurricane outlook is made jointly by the scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC).
BTW, Dr. Masters is just talking about the steering pattern for June, not the entire season.
the main thought is this where will the ITCZ set itself up. Thats the thing if it sets itself up farther north than where it was last year and we do not see alot of troughs, mainly weak ones than I can say this: Florida get ready cause we are going to get nailed.
Combine in the fact that we have barely seen any rain here in Florida, ITCZ setting up more north than where it was last year and the placement of the High this year. What that does that mean for Florida then. Also combine in the La Nina factors.
This may be just a myth but normally when my part of Florida is dry than my area of Florida would get hit by a storm, when my area is wet well just the opposite happens. I'm not sure if this myth is true or not. Possible new episode for Mythbusters?
Well StormW in 2004 we saw none, 2005 we saw I think 2 and in 2006 we saw 1.
Just messing with ya.
Afternoon '03
Good point...kinda...I'll give you that he was talking about June and July.

Seriously pws ☺, the who get's nailed conversation at this point is pretty pointless...

Ok, thanks SJ..LOL
Tropical Storm Allison was a tropical storm that devastated southeast Texas in June of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. The first storm of the season, Allison lasted unusually long for a June storm, remaining tropical or subtropical for 15 days. The storm developed from a tropical wave in the northern Gulf of Mexico on June 4, and struck the northern Texas coast shortly thereafter. It drifted northward through the state, then turned back to the south and re-entered the Gulf of Mexico. The storm continued to the east-northeast, making landfall on Louisiana and then moving across the southeast United States and Mid-Atlantic. Allison was the first storm since Tropical Storm Frances in 1998 to strike the upper Texas coastline.[1]

The storm dropped heavy rainfall along its path, peaking at over 40 inches (1000 mm) in Texas. The worst of the flooding occurred in Houston, where most of Allison's damage occurred. There, 30,000 became homeless after the flooding destroyed 2,744 homes. Downtown Houston was inundated with flooding, causing severe damage to hospitals and businesses. 23 people died in Texas. Throughout its entire path, Allison caused $6.05 billion (2006 USD) in damage and 41 deaths. Aside from Texas, the places worst hit were Louisiana and southeastern Pennsylvania.

Following the storm, President George W. Bush declared 75 counties along Allison's path as disaster areas, which allowed the affected citizens to apply for aid. Allison is the only tropical storm to have its name retired without ever reaching hurricane strength.4
So we agree he was talking about June and July?
Good AfterNoon....That blob off Africa still is looking pretty good
early june at that too.
well what are the models showing for the next 10 days. Thats what I need to ask.
Isn't it odd that we are looking at the eastern atlantic at this time of the year, being that the first tropical wave of the year develops out there and not in the area of the Caribbean.
The best detailed outlook yet this season will be out on thursday.100 times in more detail the noaa and bill gray trust me.Cant say more but look for it on early thursday morning.

Independent weather
adrian, what are you hinting at.

anymore on the P3 flights as of yet?
NOAA: 2007 Tropical Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Outlook Issued: 22 May 2007

Realtime monitoring of tropical East Pacific conditions can be obtained here
Realtime monitoring of tropical Atlantic conditions can be obtained here




SUMMARY
NOAA scientists are forecasting a 70% probability of a below-normal eastern Pacific hurricane season during 2007, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of an above-normal season. This hurricane outlook is made jointly by the scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). See Background Information for NOAAs definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

NOAAs 2007 outlook for the eastern Pacific hurricane season calls for 12-16 tropical storms (average is 15-16), with 6-9 becoming hurricanes (average is 9), and 2-4 becoming major hurricanes (average is 4-5). This outlook reflects the ongoing multi-decadal climate signal that has been acting to suppress eastern Pacific hurricane activity since 1995, combined with the strong likelihood of either ENSO neutral or La Nia conditions during much of the season. The ongoing reduction in eastern Pacific hurricane activity since 1995 is coincident with generally above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity.

The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern Pacific Ocean east of 140oW north of the equator. There will be no further updates to this 2007 outlook.

DISCUSSION

1. Expected Activity - 70% Chance Below Normal, 25% Chance Near Normal, 5% Chance Above Normal

An important measure of total seasonal activity is NOAAs Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which accounts for the collective strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes during a given hurricane season (see Background Information). The ACE index is also used to define the above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. A value of 92% of the median (Median value is 109) corresponds to the upper boundary for a below-normal season.

For the 2007 eastern Pacific hurricane season, the ACE index is expected to be 50%-100% of the median. The main climate signals for this prediction are a) the ongoing multi-decadal climate signal that has favored generally below-normal activity since 1995, and b) the strong likelihood of either ENSO-neutral or weak La Nia conditions throughout the season. The Climate Prediction Center is currently indicating that La Nia conditions could develop within the next 1-3 months.

The 2007 eastern Pacific hurricane season is expected to bring 12-16 tropical storms, with 6-9 becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 becoming major hurricanes. There is the expectation that many of the named storms will remain relatively weak, and that some hurricanes and major hurricanes are likely to be short-lived compared to normal. While it is reasonable to expect this range of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, the total seasonal activity as measured by the ACE index can certainly be in the expected range without all three of these criteria being met.

Most tropical storms that form in the eastern North Pacific track westward into open waters, sometimes reaching Hawaii and beyond. On average, one to two tropical storms per season either head northward or recurve toward western Mexico. These storms often bring rainfall to western Mexico, and sometimes also supply moisture to the arid southwestern United States.

CAUTIONARY NOTES

1) It is important to recognize that it is currently not possible to confidently predict at these extended ranges the number or intensity of land falling hurricanes, or whether a particular locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Therefore, residents and government agencies coastal and near-coastal regions should always maintain hurricane preparedness efforts regardless of the overall seasonal outlook.

2) Far more damage can be done by one major hurricane hitting a heavily populated area than by several hurricanes hitting sparsely populated areas or, of course, not making landfall at all. Therefore, hurricane-spawned disasters can occur even in years with near-normal or below-normal levels of activity



there is a spot just N of Cuba on the Sat that is about the only thing happening now. Looks to be mostly upper level - ill check the buoys

-- Nothing much there but what appears to be the remnants of a wave looks to be clearing Cuba and possibly moving into the straights tonight. We will see i guess.
JF, you can really shear kicking in that image you posted. Really cool to watch the clouds start to expand over that little island just S of the W tip of Cuba (Isle of Youth)get sheared to hell as the day time heating tried to fire them up.
Whew, thanks Sj it is bad there. Dropping some on the tendency map but still very high.
Interesting:

Forecast for 2005:
12-15 tropical storms
7-9 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes
Expected Activity - 70% chance above normal, 20% chance near normal, 10% chance below normal

Forecast for 2007:
13-17 named storms
7-10 hurricanes
3-5 major hurricanes
Expected Activity - 75% chance above normal, 20% chance near normal, 5% chance below normal

Gulp...
MichaelSTL,

Miami met. Don Noe was just talking about that. He also said we don't need an active season for a bad season as we saw in 1992. I always like to say, "It takes one to get the damage done."
Posted By: StormW at 6:22 PM GMT on May 22, 2007.
Posted By: nash28 at 6:15 PM GMT on May 22, 2007.

LOL Ike! Imagine that. I haven't seen a cumulonimbus cloud in ages. I'd probably wet myself the next time I see one!

You and me both nash...had some off in the distance last week...saw 'em sneering at me.


That was kinda funny...anyhow been there done that - when you guys were getting all the action in 2004 and 2005, we were being tormented day after day after day over here in TX with a very hot and dry weather pattern...
135. RL3AO
Central Kansas in the bullseye for tomorrow.

z
I guess the low is over the straights. 850 vort is respectable. If the shear drops down some I I wonder if a storm forms up the radar is interesting.
Question: Has anyone seen anything on Hurricane Prepareness week on their local media? I haven't seen much and I live in FL.
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean Link
2007
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Noel
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
JFlorida, it is only May. The wind shear in that area is 70-80 knots and is not forcasted to relax anytime in the near future. Another 2-3 weeks and then we'll have to watch things.
If current shear trends continue I guestimate in about a day (30 or 40 hrs) the gulf will be favorable for development.

yea clwstmchasr I know - Im not saying cat 5 killer storm I dont even like those things (im old), but a nice watchable early season depression is cool for people who like to watch the weather; before this place goes crazy with the summer people.

Also this moderately validates the GFS that was predicting something in this position.
Summer people preparing for Westcasting Jam...4
Exactly pat - they are already gathering in small groups on the outskirts I see by your photo.
I don't think too many jawas live in this world, then again I could be wrong...

lol
Summer people preparing for Westcasting Jam....

************************
LOL....does this include me?? DO NOT ANSWER!!! LOL


I have learned the MOJO is right for storms this year.

Forecasters were right 6 of the 9 years previous or close. Some say this is great, some say crystal balls would be more predictable?


There's a chance they are wrong. Everyone could be wrong no matter what they say and can find someone to dispute their point fairly close by.


The season seems to be starting early??

Jupiter was aligned with the moon and the age of Aquarius is upon us with La Nina in the ascendancy.


Am I right or wrong?? LOL LOL LOL
Back to seriously lurking.
groundman
Did everyone get mad at what I said about the Bermuda High? If I was offensive, I'm terribly sorry; I won't ask again, unless I know for sure what I say isn't offensive. Seriously, I didn't know it would be offensive, and I'm sorry for it. I hope you can all forgive me. :(
Maintaining Separate Identity of the National Weather Service

Is Critical to Emergency Managers for Protection of Life



May 18, 2007 (Falls Church, Va.) - The International Association of Emergency Managers (IAEM) applauds the National Weather Service for providing life-saving weather warnings and information important to our nation's security for 137 years. IAEM urges Congress to include language in a bill to direct the Department of Commerce (DOC) and its bureau, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to preserve and make permanent the agency name of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the use of the NWS emblem in association with all products, services and facilities of the NWS throughout the nation, including at the national prediction and/or guidance centers, such as the NWS National Hurricane Center and the four CONUS NWS regional field management offices.



On May 17, 2007, the director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Bill Proenza, was quoted in the Miami Herald. He stated that millions are being spent on a NOAA self-promotion campaign while front-line NWS forecasters and those providing other services are wrestling with budget shortfalls.



NOAA has undertaken a campaign to bolster its identity. The campaign includes a 200-year anniversary celebration, which is puzzling since NOAA was established in 1970. It also includes the re-branding of its agencies. For example, an obscure NOAA Web site - www.weather.gov/banners/nws.php - showcases a proposal to use the NOAA emblem in place of the NWS emblem in the banners of virtually all federal weather-related Web sites. Further, according to the Miami Herald article, it has been confirmed that officials are considering changing the name of the National Hurricane Center to the NOAA Hurricane Center or NOAA National Hurricane Center and changing the National Weather Service to NOAA Weather Service or NOAA National Weather Service.



Members of IAEM, local emergency managers, interact on a daily basis with the Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) around the country to alert citizens of pending bad weather or to gain information on the weather's effects on other all-hazard events (such as fires or chemical spills). "The National Weather Service is critical to the safety and welfare of local communities," stated Larry Gispert, IAEM first vice president and emergency manager for Hillsborough County, Fla. "Citizens recognize the NWS emblem and their forecasts and warnings. Anything that could diminish the recognition of the agency's important messages may put our citizens in harm's way."



IAEM is further concerned that weakening the identity of the NWS could impact the agency's budget. According to Proenza in the Miami Herald article, NWS has a shortfall of more than $700,000 over several years in a hurricane research program, and NOAA has allowed other important initiatives to go unfunded. "IAEM urges Congress to stop this nonsense and direct money into programs crucial to saving lives during weather-related events," stated Gispert. "With appropriate funds, the NWS will remain the premier agency responsible for ensuring the public's safety when dealing with severe weather events in the United States."



The International Association of Emergency Managers (IAEM) is a non-profit organization consisting of nearly 3,000 emergency management professionals from local, state and the federal governments, military, private industry, and volunteer organizations. IAEM has consistently promoted the goals of saving lives and protecting property during emergencies and disasters since its founding in 1952 as the U.S. Civil Defense Council.

KoritheMan if asking about the Bermuda high was offensive I'd say someone got up on the wrong side of the computer this morning. Last year describing peoples IQ

I don't know the answer but maybe if you whine a bit they will answer.

Completely tongue in cheek,don't take me even remotely serious.
groundman
Ok - I'm a newbie. But I live on the NW Florida Gulf Coast and have determined that I am not intended to have a privacy fence or trees in my yard. Ivan and Dennis have taken their toll! Please keep posting your info and insights for those of us cuddling up with plywood, duct tape and batteries! I don't know anything about the weather other than what I see when I look out the window!
Good evening Dr Masters,

I don't care if there are 25 major hurricanes as long as they stay out to sea and not bother anyone! Just one landfalling major hurricane is too many. Hope that they follow the "fish storm" paths this year.

Summer people preparing for Westcasting Jam....

************************
LOL....does this include me?? DO NOT ANSWER!!! LOL


No - I shouldn't even have mentioned it, no one yet has come close to the ego and ridiculous bickering that occurs during high season. Then there is all the graphic stuff that just seems like spam because it is too much nuanced information at once.

but I like it better now anyway. the weather is more interesting. Right in between seasons with a little bit of both kinds of systems.


Hey check out the new webcam link up top thats cool. Hopefully it will all move towards linked info with local news links and a clickable map.

The streaming live video news feeds form larger stations during tornado warnings were very informative and interesting. I hope we see a lot of that this year for hurricane season.
I'm posting a question here because I don't know where else to post it!

Can we get an expanded 15 day forecast for a specific city on this site? I know how to search the city at the top of the page.

Thanks............!

steelmagnolia
d

i remember when people used to like west.....
Hey someone link steelmagnolia44 to those meterogram strip thingeys that are generated off the models that you guys posted during winter storms. I like those.

MSTL if you are out there I remember you used them.?
You can find them and more here (I also have many of the sites that I use linked to in my blog).
Thank you Michael! I have bookmarked the link!

I know I can get a 15 day forecast on the accuweather site. Sometimes I find their forecasts are not very accurate and I like this site better! I enjoy the info on the blogs.

steelmagnolia

guys you can relax as long as the westerlies are down there and the shear is there nothing will form it will be torn apart...you guys need to look at the maps and the water vapor loops....to much shear guys for the next 72 hours....shear will slack up bt saturday but it will take time for the high to build over the area....we are looking at the latest something could form would be in the first week of june..so relax i think if it does form it may be named barry....its something that bears watching but not right now ...you guys need to get some sleep nothing will form for the next 2 weeks..StormKat.
i disagree on what dr m said on is blog about the steering currents and about the
Bermuda High wish is march further west then it was last year



i disagree on evere thing dr m said in his blog today well may be not evere thing
Posted By: hurricane23 at 9:45 PM GMT on May 22, 2007.

The best detailed outlook yet this season will be out on thursday.100 times in more detail the noaa and bill gray trust me.Cant say more but look for it on early thursday morning.


Absolutely.Their forecast was the best one last year.Extremely detailed,and they also foresaw the recurvature of most storms months in advance.Anyone who wants to get an idea of their detail should read last year's forecast.
NOAA says most of the activity will start in August. 2004's first storm formed in August, as well as 1992 and we all know what happened.
I hope that this tornado lifts soon... no need for another Greensburg...



SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
616 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

KSC065-230030-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0060.000000T0000Z-070523T0030Z/
GRAHAM KS-
716 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR GRAHAM
COUNTY...

AT 716 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE EMPLOYEES REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
PENOKEE OR SOUTHWEST OF HILL CITY JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 283...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HILL CITY AROUND 730 PM CDT...


RESIDENTS OF HILL CITY NEED TO TAKE SHELTER NOW. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY REINFORCED BUILDING. AS A LAST
RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
Nothing is happening until that trough clears the CATL! I was going to give my forcast a week ago but, noticed this persistant area! NOAA doesn't have the luxury of holding back a forcast in the moment but, being an amature, I do!
hey hey hey HEY HEY hey.... hey - SK what are you looking at for shear prjections?

I was thinging that at dropping at current rates (kinda best case i know) 30 hours would be acceptable for sustained convective development in the gulf area. based loosely on how its been going and down lately.

You think 72?
WPB'cane....NOAA said that they are expecting starting in August because that is when the peak starts.They're essentially saying that solely because that is what is normal.
Hello all. 1st post. I believe the predictions above will be wrong. This year will be like last year. NO STORMS. Why? Gulf temps are still cool. 20 miles off shore on Friday and water was 78. Should be well into 80's by now. Also not normal for this year are the constant North winds leaving us with little humidity and very little rain. I could be wrong but this is not typical SW FL weather. I know this could all change quickly but my guess is same as last hear and all the years before 2005. 05 was just a freak of nature.

Actually, GoM temps are generally in the low 60s in the winter time, and for them to only reach the mid 80s in August is quite normal (I read this somewhere, so I hope it's right). The Gulf temps are already starting to REALLY warm up, and I think they will be extremely warm by mid July, say around 83-85F. The Carribean is also especially warm, with water possibly strong enough to fuel a Category 3 hurricane right now. That will more than likely not happen, given the unfavorable conditions that are present (usually) during the beginning of each hurricane season.

Also, if the Bermuda High is further west this year (in 2006, it was much further east than usual, thus recurved everything), then a lot of storms will more than likely end up in the U.S. I'm expecting at least 5 landfalls this year in the U.S., with at least one of those landfalls being a major hurricane landfall. Shear and African dust doesn't appear to be as big a problem this year like it was last year, either.
well i said that when there forecast came out ...they were forecasting and above avg season...im the only one on here that predicted a well below avg season last year...i out did the NHC DR GRAY AND ALL THE OTHER ONES THAT WERE HYPING UP THE SEASON....THIS YEAR THINGS ARE SETTING UP DIFFERENT ...WE HAVE INCREASE RAINFALL ON THE AFRICAN COAST AND SSP ARE BELON NORMAL FOR SO EARLY IN THE YEAR...GUYS I THINK WE ARE IN FOR QUITE A FEW LAND FALLING HURRICANES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN INTO THE GUL OF MEXICO....THE TROUGHS ON THE EAST COAST WILL BE SCARCE THIS YEAR AND THE SEASON FOR THE EAST COAST WILL BE DULL IN MY OPINION...FLA WILL GET ITS SHARE AND THE ISLANDS WILL GET THERE SHARE...IT WONT BE PRETTY...THE DUST IS NON-EXISTENT ON THE AFRICAN COAST SO FAR THIS YEAR....THIS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD QUICKLY BECAUSE THE WAY THE AZORES HIGH IS SETTING UP AND A LA NINA THAT IS GETTING STRONGER BY THE DAY..I DONT LIKE THIS SCENARIO TAKING PLACE GUYS....
Thats a strong echo MSTL


CATL THW??? - oh ok - sorry! - that was easy.
Central Atlantic JFlorida! CATL!
Stormkat....LMAO I could pull out many posts of you hyping last season as well man. Want me to go look? Dude you didn't beat Dr. Gray and the NHC what are you talking about lol.
172. Alec
Stormtop-the very first thing you did last yr was say "as far as Im concerned hurricane season starts today" in May....then you revised your forecast to an inactive one.....good for you...you were right.....Me along with many were wrong.....happy now?LOL
lol I'll agree with ST on his forcast... But ST, dude, cut out all the Fatheaded, "I'm better than you" mumbojumbo. Try to be humble "thats where it's at."
Now levi be nice to crazy old ST. Hes actually got a point, not with the forecasting accuracy stuff (who cares) but the dust stuff, the Azores high and Gulf comments are interesting.

OMG Hellsniper223 do I play you on BF 2142?
YES LEVI SHOW ME SOME POSTS WHERE I HYPED UP THE HURRICANE SEASON FOR LAST YEAR I WANT TO SEE THEM...i believe i predicted 8 storms...SHOW ME LEVI......StormKat
JFLORIDA - I ain't being nice to anybody who has done what that guy has done to us in the past. He says some things that are true, but seriously he thinks he's weathergod and we're all amateurs to him. Plus he lies about his own forecasts....
Come see my new website!!!

Link
178. Alec
I applaud you stormtop.....good work.
Stormkat - I'm sorry buddy, but STORMTOP was banned, and all your posts are gone!!!!! So I can't post them here :) But may I point out all your crazy predictions for hurricane Emily? You floored us and yelled and raged and said crazy things and sure enough Emily hit Mexico, NOT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
He didn't predict 8 storms lol....
Lets hope the current pattern persist threw the season as this trofiness would likely shoot eveything out to sea.Time will tell.
Well we'll believe it when we see it stormtop. You kinda built a reputation you know, don't expect us to come flocking to your banner as soon as you come back. Gotta prove yourself first and DROP THE CAPS.
Levi32 at 12:55 AM GMT on May 23, 2007.

Its probably something else talking. Yes, and the sockpuppets, that freaks me out. ST please behave.

Levi, anyway I like him because he is an armature radio enthusiast. That cool. He needs to get out of the confrontation mode though.

ST feel the weather love.

Anyway we need a weatherundergurond BF 2142 clan! That would be cool.

must be another hellsinper! BF2142 is a monstrous waste of time and buggy as all get out but I am addicted.
OMG Hellsniper223 do I play you on BF 2142?

Nope. lol. You've got the wrong guy! I wish I had BF 2142...
Oh boy every one is fighting, you know that hurricane season must be soon.
187. Alec
stormtop.....hope you are doing good....not too happy about the drought though! TTYL guys......LOL ALEC...OUT!!!
I wonder if NOAA's hurricane season forecast is why the gas prices jumped 27 cents today (at least here). It was $3.32 at the gas station up the street yesterday and today it was at $3.59.
I'm going to issue my predictions for the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season on June 1st. Also, I'm going to have my own tropical weather blog that'll (hopefully) be updated every day, starting hurricane season. It will only cover the Atlantic and East Pacific basins, though. I will not count on my forecast of 16-18 named storms, 10-12 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes to come true until I see how the first two months of the season shape up. I expect activity to start MUCH sooner than August, though. I predict that Barry will form between June 15th and June 30th.
ST Do you by chance have a myspace? lmao
louastu- yes. The same thing happenned the day the April forecast came out, at least all through Florida. (just my opinion, sinking back below lawn-mower level now)
I wouldn't want to be in the path of this thing:

Wowah HOT pink. Dont see that much. Thats a Really bad one.

Thats getting very serious out there.

GOVE COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED TORNADO NEAR ST. PETER. ON THE GROUND FOR APPROX.THREE MINUTES
LOL...looks like things are getting back to normal on here
Here is the warning for that storm:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
712 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

KSC063-109-179-193-230200-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0063.000000T0000Z-070523T0200Z/
THOMAS KS-SHERIDAN KS-LOGAN KS-GOVE KS-
812 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN GOVE...NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...SOUTHWESTERN SHERIDAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS COUNTIES...

AT 807 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OAKLEY...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ANGELUS AROUND 830 PM CDT...
GRINNELL AROUND 835 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 67 AND 93.

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO 5 MILES WEST OF OAKLEY. PEOPLE IN
AND NEAR OAKLEY SHOULD SEEK BELOW GROUND SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!


IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
Did anyone predict a below average year in the media?
Heres that Pic from NOAA news. I did some enhancing:

Here is the forecast:



Check out my blog for realtime satellite imagery and NOAA's 2007 Hurricane Season Outlook.
I recall there was a lot of African dust last year...And a lot of shear on this side of the Atlantic. We have had strong winds and high surf battering our Central Florida coastline for about three weeks now! This is a strange year also with lower rainfall than even in '98 when we had all the fires. Because of the lack of rain, I would imagine the ocean is heating up quicker too. So that would mean storms wouldn't wait until August as they did in 2004 when we got hit back and forth across Central Florida.
Here is another very intense storm:



N6 74 dBZ 38,000 ft. 68 kg/m 100% 100% >4.00 in. 37 knots SW (232)
Alec what up man? I will never forget that night you had me on here late soon after Dr. Masters started this blog trying to get 1000 posts - I think it was the blog's first 1000 post day. Classic stuff...anyhow, take care and I hope to see ya more this season...
Posted By: hurricane23 at 1:02 AM GMT on May 23, 2007.

Lets hope the current pattern persist threw the season as this trofiness would likely shoot eveything out to sea.Time will tell.


As much as I agree with you 23, being a Floridian! This year is a double edged sword, in my opinion! Obviously you don't want a Hurricane to hit you but, this year, Florida is more dependant on tropical moisture than ever. A 2006 seasonal setup with a pending La Nina would send us down! Quote from the SFWMD "Below normal rains this season will be devestating to our water supply"
Gr. Jeff. Thank you for everything.
Hello guys.
Storm top.. i have to say .... u did predict some things very accuratley in the past although u can be very persistent and annoying... u do pretty good with ur predictions =]
seflagamma said:
I don't care if there are 25 major hurricanes as long as they stay out to sea and not bother anyone! Just one landfalling major hurricane is too many. Hope that they follow the "fish storm" paths this year.


Now you've done it. Won't give you the full treatment that the Weather Channel got when they insisted on using the phrase "...passed safely out to sea..." when talking about hurricanes, but gotta' give you a little.

As a merchant mariner, let me assure you that just because a storm stays out to sea, it doesn't mean that it "won't bother anyone". Tens of thousands of us make our living at sea, and while more accurate forecasting has enabled vessels to avoid storms, hurricanes are still unpredictable beasts and they exact a heavy toll on the open seas every year. Just something to keep in mind while watching a monster storm churning it's way across the ocean.
Amazing Story Spoonbow!
Spoonbow, Is your handle a nautical term?
Thanks,
NoShoes, lurking and learning in Pensacola.
Hi, all. I'm a frequent lurker since Katrina, when you guys helped make me the most prepared person I know in Hattiesburg MS. 11 days without power, and I never went without food, gas, or beer. Almost everyone else I knew tried to stay, but ended up bugging out about 3 days into the 11 days without power. So for that, I thank you.

Now, I have a dumb question. Can someone explain what an "invest" is? I tried the old Google, but got stuck with a bunch of sites about how Katrina hurt financial investments. :P

TY in advance.
...thanks for reminding us, Spoonbow...the storms affect many, in many ways.

...and I'm certain, being on the high seas are NO fun at all with these things.

...even keels and smooth sailing to you and thanks for participating in the blog!!!
Posted By: stormkat at 12:29 AM GMT on May 23, 2007.
--THIS YEAR THINGS ARE SETTING UP DIFFERENT ...WE HAVE INCREASE RAINFALL ON THE AFRICAN COAST AND SSP ARE BELON NORMAL FOR SO EARLY IN THE YEAR...GUYS I THINK WE ARE IN FOR QUITE A FEW LAND FALLING HURRICANES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN INTO THE GUL OF MEXICO....THE TROUGHS ON THE EAST COAST WILL BE SCARCE THIS YEAR AND THE SEASON FOR THE EAST COAST WILL BE DULL IN MY OPINION...FLA WILL GET ITS SHARE AND THE ISLANDS WILL GET THERE SHARE...IT WONT BE PRETTY...THE DUST IS NON-EXISTENT ON THE AFRICAN COAST SO FAR THIS YEAR....THIS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD QUICKLY BECAUSE THE WAY THE AZORES HIGH IS SETTING UP AND A LA NINA THAT IS GETTING STRONGER BY THE DAY..I DONT LIKE THIS SCENARIO TAKING PLACE GUYS....


...I hear you, SK...hope you're wrong!
DUST IS NON-EXISTENT ON THE AFRICAN COAST SO FAR THIS YEAR....THIS SPELLS TROUBLE FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO..

Check out the photo in current weather gallery "Sahara Dust in Puerto Rico" by Juancho--Is this relevant to the above observation?
Well shear went back up in the gulf and the new GFS run is about the most boring thing ive ever seen.
Shear forecasts call for favorable conditions in early June on the GFS for the Caribbean

Check out the GFS 18z forecast on June 4th
well we heARD a fish tail anyway he he he ;ooh me . hummm so what is the pros' on this blog rpedicting .where are they predicting the storms to come from and where are they predicting them to landfall .Now this i wont to know if that is the pros' on this blog can do it he he im waiting !!!
i figure a person if they really tried they might find a analog year around somewhere and tell us all the story that needs to be told !!
GFS creating lows all over the place on long range -- one that crosses florida -- then one up the east coast 2 days later
Good Morning Everybody!
good morning
I aint no pro but it sounds like the GFS is picking up on the development of some kind of boundry like a front or trough with little lows spinning off that. I live for Imus but I will take Charles and Jim Cramer Have a nice day.
i dont disagree with that assessment leftovers
Morning everyone.
good morning everyone so what is the big topic today
Posted By: stormkat at 12:29 AM GMT on May 23, 2007.
EAST COAST WILL BE DULL




if theres one thing that has been consistent since i have been on weather underground, it has been stormtop/stormkats prediction of no east coast storms and an overabundance of storms in the gulf
231. IKE
Latest GFS 06 UTC is STILL on board with an eastern GOM low on May 31st/June 1st time frame Link
Saw that this morning Ike. CMC just jumped back on to its TS east of the Bahamas again. Only one run. Don't buy it yet. No consistency.
The GFSx and the Blip...Link
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 10:32 PM EDT on May 22, 2007.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 1:02 AM GMT on May 23, 2007.

Lets hope the current pattern persist threw the season as this trofiness would likely shoot eveything out to sea.Time will tell.

As much as I agree with you 23, being a Floridian! This year is a double edged sword, in my opinion! Obviously you don't want a Hurricane to hit you but, this year, Florida is more dependant on tropical moisture than ever. A 2006 seasonal setup with a pending La Nina would send us down! Quote from the SFWMD "Below normal rains this season will be devestating to our water supply"


I wanted to recycle this comment and explain why I said what I said. It is easy to forget that alot of lurkers don't know what your talking about. I wanted to add THIS MAP. It is a map of temperature and precipitation during a givin La Nina period. Navigate through the precipitation section and you will soon find that La Nina summers do not bode well for Florida in the precipitation catagory, and winter is even worse. It is imperative that we recieve, at least, normal moisture this summer.
good morning, yes cane we are extremely dry up in north florida also.. smoke from wild fires is awful here this morning
Top of the morning to you Pat.
The GFS run you posted IKE, finally, breaks that trough in the C-ATL towards the end of the run.
morning nash n cane.. any smoke in your areas?
239. IKE
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 7:52 AM CDT on May 23, 2007.
The GFS run you posted IKE, finally, breaks that trough in the C-ATL towards the end of the run.


God...I hope it's true..this weather...warm/hot...sooo dry...it's redundant...too redundant...**yawn**
Morning Hank! None here in the Palm Beach Gardens! I feel for ya, we had some a while ago during Andrea!
No smoke in the Tampa area. Thank God! That big fire on the FL/GA line was 90% contained as of yesterday.
Mornin' all.
Morning Doug.
Thankfully had alittle shower early this morning. East Central Fl.
Windy and rough surf around Daytona for three weeks now...I hate to think of what will happen at the beach once the season kicks into gear...but we sure could use the rain.
morning IKE... I assume u r gettting smoke. awful here. I'm 65 miles east of Tallahassee..
OOps west of tallahassee lol
Also kicks out that pesky low that's been hanging around the NW coast of Africa. Overall the GFS is predicting a pretty big pattern change if it happens.
That's great news Nash! It's been a long battle for them.
Anyone have an input on how the bermuda high may set up this summer? if its like last year may let the storms recurve and not affect the US .. but,I've herd we could have a 2004 set up?
Good Morning folks. Lets see if we can get the runs to figure a way for Floridas relief.They could sure use a break.Even the Beekeepers taking a whooping from the drought....Link
Posted By: stormhank at 9:11 AM EDT on May 23, 2007. (hide)
Anyone have an input on how the bermuda high may set up this summer? if its like last year may let the storms recurve and not affect the US .. but,I've herd we could have a 2004 set up?

Good morning....

Over the past month or so trofiness has been persistent which is our friend during hurricane season and if this pattern were to persist it would be great news for the united states as systems will have a hard time making it all the way to the coast.It will be interesting to see if this pattern holds threw the next few months.

Remember though it only takes one to ruin lives,numbers predicted are not important.

Adrian's Weather
Unless we start gettin thunderstorms soon Fl. will be lookin for one of those CVers 23. Fifteen yrs ago or so we had a big dry spell barely had enough water to get through it. Now with this population boom where is the water goin to come from.?
Leftovers... The ocean.
Hopefully a weak system will form in gulf n bring some beneficial rains to florida. We've only had like .07' of rain last 30 days.
I do not expect the troughiness to continue throughout the hurricane season. In a neutral pattern, the jet will not be as strong as it was last summer, which saw trough after trough sweeping the storms well away from landfall.

We also have to watch how strong and where the Azores High sets up over the next couple of months.
Check out this map...

Lake Okeechobee is @ 9.24 feet. 8.97 feet was the record set in the drought of 00 01. Were about 2 inches away.
We haven't had any rain so we should get there very very soon, maybe today!
No significant rain across south florida as atleast till sunday.
correct me if I'm wrong...but storms that form in carribean n gulf aren't affected by troughs as much as storms that are further north right? But as everyone says we'll have to wait n see what pattern sets up during peak hurricane season months.. august n september. I've read alot of theories that say florida and gulf may have a bad season this year?
Map looks good. Scenario B looks enticing.

All these wishy washy thinking of troughs coming thru is just guessing.

The Dr. talks about the unusual steering currents of '05. I remember no one that has mentioned that in '05. Now as we look back and analize data, we can come to that conclusion.
Maybe its not the steering currents that gets us in '07, maybe something else. And when it does, years later we'll have analized the data and make an assumption.
Did I hear correctly? Quickbird will get funding this/next year? The NOAA name change got on NPR as a bad idea. NPR even talked about people accepting climate change and getting behind positive changes.

This is the world I have been looking for!

p.s. the pda pages on wunderground come up quickly but the others are taking a long long time to draw after download. What is up?
Good Morning all. I was just wondering by reading in the blog does some people think that this year alot of the storms are gonna recurve out to sea like last year? How does the BH seem to be setting up? I guess overall does it seem like we are gonna have a season like last year. I know there saying it's gonna be active but are they trying to say there gonna recurve? I seen where someone said the water temperature isn't very high or like it suppose to be. I'm just wondering just a little confused.I'm a lurker and i like to read all the post people put up and there all so different at times. So any info anyone can tell me would greatly be appreciated. Thanks in advanced.
269. IKE
Posted By: stormhank at 8:00 AM CDT on May 23, 2007.
morning IKE... I assume u r gettting smoke. awful here. I'm 65 miles east of Tallahassee..


No smoke so far today.
IKE and storm check mail.
Lighting10 can you please minimize that image.

Image shack
Very informative paper StormW.
I pose a question to everyone. In hurricanes or tornado situations, we are told to stay in our "safe room". In my house every bedroom has either and a skylight or french doors. Including bathrooms. They have a skylight or a regular door leading to the pool. kithchen & living room also have multiple skylights & doors. Closets are not big enough to hold me, hubby & 3 little ones. My little ones are 5 & 2, so of course I want to keep them safe & sheltered. Where would one suggest to go? I know usually the bathroom tub is safe, but I don't trust my skylights anymore. Got too rattled, I think, from Fran, Jean, & Wilma. Anyone have any suggestions? I've gotten really lucky previously, but there are only 2 of us parents & 3 of them. Husband works management for phone co. so leaving isn't an option for us. (You're not allowed!) Anyway leaving Florida is a nightmare when they say to evacuate. Actually, most times, you can't! Thanks alot for any input!!
276. IKE
I see some showers moving onshore between Jax,Fl. and Waycross,Ga....that's a strong high building in with winds up to 30 mph in gusts in the Jacksonville area.

Wish they would migrate over here to the western Florida panhandle...
Lightning10 would you please shrink that image it is stretching the blog!

Thanks
Or I just find it eaisier to just link it.
Hurricanes are Skylights worst enemy! I am in the cabinetry business and, during the rebuild after the big 3 here in Palm Beach, noticed alot of flooded homes where skylights were the point of entry. Not sure how to protect against that, maybe others can help who are in the same situation.
If it were me, I would have the skylights inspected by a reputable roofing company! Your right, they made it through 3 but, they are probably a little weaker now.
Thanks TCW & StormW! StormW u have mail!
284. Inyo
lightning, what is that? The water off our coast now is way colder than average so I don't see anything tropical coming towards us any time soon. Weird, though.

Spoonbow, you are right, we tend to forget about people at sea when we watch the hurricanes. I guess something to remember is that accurate forecasts are extremely important to those at sea, and that we can't stop watching/following 'fish storms'. At least those in ships can hopefuly sail away from a storm if they know it is coming.
Afternoon all ☺

SW, is there any way that you could maybe respond to posts here so that everyone could gain your insight as opposed to the constant "you have mail" posts. There may be others that read WPB's post and are waiting to see a response. I just think the information sharing is what this is all about.

That said, WPB...I would suggest looking into sitting the storm out with someone else in the area. Maybe some coworkers from the phone company or neighbors that have a safer safe room. Be very careful to look at the size and location of the trees surrounding whatever house you stay in. They can come all the way through the house.

ps, obviously this does not work for tornados...
Afternoon everyone. Nash, how is school going?
Thanks, StormJunkie! Our neighbors have basically the same layout. And we live in a heavily tree filled area! That was a good point you brought up!. I had forgotten about the trees! I bet lots of other people do too! We can't cut down our trees either because they are protected. But, thanks for the insight!
No problem wpb. Are you in a brick house? Usually trees will not come all the way through a brick house, but sometimes the limbs can puncture through to the floor. Vinyl or wood sided houses on the other hand can have trunks cut all the way to the floor.
Tree Damage Aug 30th ..New Orleans..Cat-3 plus ..Pine trees Link
Hey guys.
great blog StormW.... It would seem that during La Nina events more storms track further west. and not recurve. I've read that this year could set up like 2004? but, patterns change often so only time will tell.
294. Inyo
It is also important to take care of your trees. I don't know what the regulations are in your area but please avoid improper trimming, watering, or root damage which can increase the chance of a tree or limb falling during a storm. Also, if a tree is dying, or poses a threat to your safety, you may be able to get a permit to trim it back.
Look at the light upper level winds in two weeks.Also note the zonal flow.

2222222
Hurricane 23
I posted a blog about a year ago about the risk to Florida
PATRAP, That picture reminds me of my street during Frances & Wilma. Jeanne spared us a little cause Frances rolled through a couple weeks earlier & got alot of the weaker ones. The scary thing is that some of those pine trees were left in half. Meaning the top halves flew somewhere as a projectile!
I noticed that in the long range GFS kris! Big pattern change ahead if the forcast holds. Trough finally clears the C-ATL, that pesky low thats been hanging around the NW coast of Africa gets kicked out. It will be interesting to see if it happens.
No interesting Stacy forecasts this year.From Margie's blog:

The news finally broke: Once the season started, it was only a matter of time (I gave it until June 1st). Someone posted on one of the tropical weather forums yesterday that at a conference in Houston, one of the NHC hurricane forecasters told him Stacy Stewart is on military duty. This is indeed true. Stacy reported for duty around the same time as Max Mayfield left NHC, in early January, and his tour of duty extends through July of 2008. He did not want a big deal made out of it.
why does joe bastardi say florida is most likely to be affected this year when the bermuda high is like it is? he must have some reasoning as to why he says that.
Long ways out and not to be taken seriously but the GFS has been indicateing for days the that shear will drop significantly in about 2 weeks time frame.

Remember the father you go out with a model the skill level drops.

What are the plus signs for? I know what the negative sign is for, but is there a "reward" for so many positives a person gets? I noticed people saying they will give 2+ points to someone answering a question. Thanks in advance!
Yes kris i spoke on that yesterday on the blog about stewart not being around this season.Beven is going to be taking up alot of the work this year.His location is undisclosed but i dont think its not in iraq.
Someone needs to minimze that huge image that was posted by lighting10 cause it strecthed the blog out.
I've been asked a bit about the Bermuda High, so here is a bit more on this:

The Bermuda High extends through a deep layer of the atmosphere, from the surface to heights above 5000 meters:

From:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anticyclone

An anticyclone composed of warm dry air may be situated over much of the North Atlantic Ocean during most of the year. The warm dry air type of anticyclone is tall and may be observed on weather charts above three miles (5km) in height. The warm dry air type of anticyclone is usually described as being semipermanent. Frontal activity is not associated with it. Transoceanic in extent, in Europe it is called the Azores High, and in the United States it is known by the name Bermuda High.


Note that the typical central pressure of the Bermuda High is 1024 mb; it has been stronger than that the past few weeks, ranging from 1028-1032 mb. The High is currently weakening, and is forecast to return to its normal 1024 mb strength by next week. A weaker High drives slower trade winds, which should allow the Atlantic to heat up more over the next two weeks than it was able to during the first part of May.

Jeff Masters
Posted By: Patrap at 12:30 PM GMT on May 23, 2007.
The GFSx and the Blip...Link


I know the reason you provided that link and everyones attention will be focused upon the GFS's verification of that tropical system moving toward Florida however, what catches my attention in that run is its forecast of cutting off a mid to upper low over TX for a few days...usually those types of scenarios bring locally flash flooding situations to parts of the state...The Ausin/San Antonio NWS Office discussed this possiblity earlier...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS
IN THE 70S ON THE WAY. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP
CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM TODAY...HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT GIVES-WAY TO A
LIGHT...BUT DISTURBED WSW FLOW. A WEAK AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE BAJA OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND MAKE
A SLOW APPROACH TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SUITE SHOWED GOOD CONSENSUS AT
120H AND 144H WITH THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.
AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP POPS CLOSE TO 00Z GFSMOS...BUT THE TREND
WILL LIKELY BE UP WITH EACH MODEL CYCLE AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY
IS A WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING
PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY MONDAY...WHICH WOULD BE OVER 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SCENARIO NEEDS TO BE
CONSIDERED BY PEOPLE MAKING MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND RECREATION PLANS
IN OUR AREA.

OUR NUMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFSMOS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS AND WITHIN A FEW DEGRESS OF NORMAL.


We shall see...
Thankyou Dr.Masters for answering my email.
Thanks for the update,Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr.M. Alot of us newbies didn't understand the relativity. That explains alot!
I would like Dr.Masters to comment more on why he feels this season might shape up like 06?
I hear people on hear debating where the Bermuda high will set up this year. If the high is in its normal position that the Cape Verde storms are more likely to recurve out to sea. What happens if we get something to form in the Central or Western Carribean? I don't think the Bermuda High will help the folks who live along the West coast of Florida with these storms.
hurricaneman23
RE Joe Bastari
Perhaps the same reason they were saying that New England was under a major threat last year?
...ratings?
Posted By: hurricane23 at 4:47 PM GMT on May 23, 2007.

I would like Dr.Masters to comment more on why he feels this season might shape up like 06?


Dr. Masters and only Dr. Masters,LOL.Adrian,if you noticed,all he really commented on in the blog was June.He said it's still too soon to know about the peak.
If we were to get a storm in the caribbean we would likely see an ernesto type track with this current pattern.
317. IKE
Thanks for the info Dr. Masters...and you're right...the Bermuda high is forecast to weaken by next week...The latest GFS run 12 UTC has the Bermuda high weakening by next week + moisture and that gulf low is still forecast to head up into the eastern GOM and really blow up as it heads up toward the NE USA...could be some real beneficial rains...link for GFS latest model run. Link
Kris were just going to have to see how all this is going to pans out.But the feeling of 07 being similar to 06 is quite out there.
The April outlook from Dr Gray's team gave the best analog years for 2007 as 1952 1964 1966 1995 2003

During these 5 years there were a total of 65 named storms, of which 9 (14%) made landfall in Florida as at least a tropical storm.
During the same period there were 37 hurricanes, of which 6 (16%) made landfall in Florida as hurricanes and there were a total of 20 intense hurricanes, of which only one (5%) reached Florida.

Based on the April forecast of 17 named storms in 2007 we might expect about 2-3 named systems to reach Florida with one of them making landfall as a hurricane.

I am waiting to see the May 31st update!
Fred i saw that and was looking at the analog years and most of them have a landfalling system in florida so what that means not sure but less hope we dont have a season like 64 again.

Iam expecting very little change in there may31 update.
Posted By: GainesvilleGator at 11:49 AM CDT on May 23, 2007.

I hear people on hear debating where the Bermuda high will set up this year. If the high is in its normal position that the Cape Verde storms are more likely to recurve out to sea.


Last year they recurved out to sea because it was much further east than normal; this year storms should take a more "normal" track (somebody posted a while back the typical tracks of storms during El Nino and La Nina, look at the average of those tracks), probably with the East Coast seeing the greatest threat from storms like Isabel and Floyd.
Hrricane23
There were 9 out of 65 or 14% making landfall in Florida so the risk is about 1 in 7 based on those stats.
Posted By: hurricaneman23 at 4:33 PM GMT on May 23, 2007.
why does joe bastardi say florida is most likely to be affected this year when the bermuda high is like it is? he must have some reasoning as to why he says that.


In addition to the location of the Bermuda High, the way the trofing and ridging set up in the west Atlantic is determined by the synoptic features moving east from the CONUS. In addition to the el nino/la nina situation a couple other indicators of upper air patterns point toward ridging being stronger this year in the west atlantic. This would give storms fewer avenues to recurve.

Note:This is not a Bastardi quote, this is my answer to your question. Just don't want to give anyone the wrong impression.

Does Dr. Masters think south fla has a high chance of getting hit this year?
South Florida almost always has a high risk by it's location.
We'll one of there analog years was 1964 which had 5 landfalling tropical systems in florida.

2 major hurricanes @ landfall

There were 9 out of 65 or 14% making landfall in Florida so the risk is about 1 in 7 based on those stats.

It is actually higher than 1 in 7; that is 14% of all storms so if we see 15 storms, 2 will make landfall (14% * 15). Maybe even higher, considering that 2 of 11 storms last year (with most storms recurving as well) made landfall in Florida (18% of the total) and this year is expected to have tracks further west.
Thank you Doctor Masters for your report but poor Florida has had enough with fires, drought and such and has decided to pull up stakes and move after hearing this news...

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket
RE 1964 Season

There were 3 in 1964: Cleo, Dora and Isabell

Hilda made landfall in LA then later moved over the Panhandle as a TS so that one is debatable (I left it out of my count) and there was an unnammed TD but I am only counting TS or higher at landfall.

1964

How long has it been since a Cape Verde hurricane struck the U.S.? I remember Andrew and Hugo did and probably a few more since '92.
I recall the last 4 years or so most of the landfalling tropical systems began in the Carribean or GOM. What conclusions can we draw from this? --Serious answers only please.

Ivan was a Long track Cape Verde System in 04..Link
Georges in 98 was also along track Cape Verde that impacted The Northern Gulf Coast...Link
I was reading what people where saying so does alot of folks think this might be a rerun of 2006 no storms or that all of them are gonna recurve out to sea? so there might not be no worries about this season. Can someone take time and explain it to me. I thought they said it was gonna be a active season.
MP. SAL(African Dust) has killed the Cape Verde season the last few years.
welll African dust definitely isn't a factor so far this year, no sign that there will be much of it either.

African dust has actually limited afternoon convection in Florida(crazy but true) because it brought in very dry air aloft which brought speels where thunderstorms tops were squelched keeping convection less numerous despite abundant surface moisture.

This year looks a little better in that sense.


Yes I know, the subject here is mostly about hurricane season, but I'm so F****** sick of the drought right now here, getting real bad here.

I shouldn't even put the the word there even though its blanked, but I'm mad about this drought.


I love how the media one minute talks about how bad Florida needs rain, then the next minute "OH AIN'T THE WEATHER JUST LOVELY THIS WEEK DRY AND SUNNY" shut the heck up, I'm sick of this crap, same pattern keeps drying out Florida and making other areas too wet, its been this way since January.
Hey Jedkins, I feel your pain about this drought. I live in the Clearwater area and the last time it rained was April 15th when we got about .7".

I played golf yesterday and the course was like straw. I many areas it was down to sand.

We need the rainy season to kick in real soon before it is too late.
Im swimming in T-showers here...Link
You got your speedo on Pat?

;)
I hear ya. They had to renovate the greens on the two golf courses I play frequently down here in Miami. The drought and the county water restrictions have mutilated the courses in Florida. Its hard to putt in a sandbox..ya know?
Not till Vacation NRAamy..see me then.I'll have a pic..LOL.
Were under an Upper Air Low spinning aloft and triggering T-storms in the afternoon Heat..Link
The ULL shows up well in the IR...Link
Where is StormTop
I share your anger, Jedkins. We're dry as a bone now for the most part in East Central Florida, save for a few very brief hit and miss showers.
bye
Here we go again! More rain tomorrow, and during the dry season! Will someone come and take some of this rain to the southeast U.S.?
350. emtkz
when a forecast state a time as 21 z for instance what time would that correlate to for the time on the east coast usa
5 p.m. in other words.
Zulu time is 4 hours ahead of EDT.
Zulu time...Link
Researchers at North Carolina State University are predicting an active 2007 hurricane season. Based on their forecast from last year, it could be a safe bet.

In 2006, the North Carolina State team predicted that one or two hurricanes would strike the East Coast, and it estimated that five or six hurricanes would form in the Atlantic Ocean east of the United States. Five hurricanes formed this past year and none made landfall, while a total of 10 named Atlantic storms formed in 2006.

But last years relatively mild hurricane season probably wont be repeated in 2007, according to the researchers.

Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at North Carolina State, and graduate student Elinor Keith, say the outlook for 2007 is for an active season, with the possibility of 12 to 14 named storms forming in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

Of those named storms, eight to nine may become hurricanes, four to five of which have the potential to become major (Category 3 or higher) storms.

The Gulf of Mexico is most likely to see storm activity this year, as Xies research indicates a higher-than-average probability of two to three hurricanes forming in the Gulf Basin, with one to two likely to make landfall.

The Southeastern coast of the United States may see between one to three named storms, with one to two hurricanes making landfall.

Xies methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years on Atlantic Ocean hurricane positions and intensity, as well as other variables including weather patterns and sea surface temperatures, in order to predict how many storms will form and where they will make landfall.

Last year, North Carolina States was the only national model to accurately forecast Atlantic hurricane activity, predicting five to six hurricanes. Five hurricanes actually formed during the 2006 season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

William Gray, who has become the nations most reliable hurricane forecaster over the past 24 years, had estimated last season would produce 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, but he later revised his projections downward. The National Hurricane Center also predicted an active hurricane season, saying 13 to 16 named storms would form.

This year, Gray predicted at least nine hurricanes five major and predicted a total of 17 named storms. The National Hurricane Center will issue its forecast for the 2007 season in late May.

355. emtkz
thanks patrap and airman so its just another term for GMT then. Thanks again
Yes, same thing.
So how are the tropics looking today? Any interesting model runs?
hurricaneman, the only thing that I can think of in relation to the bastardi comment is the positioning of the ITCZ in relation to the postion of the Bermuda High. If both are in alignment so to speak I do believe florida would then be on the "train effect" or recieving end of anything that comes out of the Atlantic basin.
Does anyone know when Randy will start posting or where he is? Would like to get some thoughts from him on the current forecast for the season and what his thoughts are on the P3 flight times being cut down
12z CMC run still shows a TS east of Bahamas. 2nd run in a row. That being said, they are the only model showing this.
The GFSx shows the later Storm a lil more N..and west..Link
nash, there is a developing low south of Miami. Its whats been giving us all the wind and miami all the rain. So yes I do see something developing out there. The question is what are the SST's in the Gulfstream right now.
The SST's are plenty warm enough to support development. The million dollar question will be the shear.
Also, are there any edies out there right now that could influence anything that develops in the Carib?
jp, you got 40+kts of shear in the area where the GFS predicted a storm to form. You also have 2 highs predicted to form. One that is current off the coast of North carolina and one that is predicted to form off or pretty darn close to being off of Texas.
The shear has been expected/forecast to drop now for about three weeks. That is one of the toughest pieces to forecast, regardless of the model. It's almost like a crapshoot.
GOM 60hour SST's surface model..and others,currents,wind forecast: wavcis Link
The near shear..GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean Link
wHAT ABout that system that was supposed to hit florida does anyone have a link for that??
The GFSx shows the later Storm a lil more N..and west..Link
Current Satellite Surface Map Plot Link
hELLO?
18 Z NAM showing some kind of low near honduras out 84 hours.Link
also a possible storm in east pacific
Major rains here last few hours..Some street flooding too..Link
Killer hurricanes thrived in cool seas: study

Interesting is the tie that once lied on the African monsoons that worked for Gray up til like 1992(?) in predicting how many storms in a season. Seems they recently gave up on that. Perhaps it only worked with the cooler SSTs. Anyway another peice of the puzzle, where it goes....hhhmmm.
Posted By: Comatose at 6:57 PM GMT on May 23, 2007.
We're dry as a bone now for the most part in East Central Florida, save for a few very brief hit and miss showers.

It was supposed to be dry here. Hit me & miss you. Been raining for over an hour. Must be that new NOAA weather service. LOL
Hope everyone else is getting the weather they want.

[Doppler Drenching Loop Removed - rains over!]
Evening y'all ☺

Looks like discovery channel will have a Extreme Engineering on rebuilding NO at 8EST.
383. IKE
The 18 UTC GFS has a stronger low going into north Florida in about 7-8 days..Link
what is up everyone, some one please tell me i will have waves in florida soon "little miss drea" teased me
Congrats to you HIEXRPESS. Hopefully some of that rain will shift due south!
crackerlogic~ your wave report
HEY EVERYONE, CHECK IT OUT. DOESN'T LOOK GOOD FOR ANY OF US THIS YEAR.

Earlier Nesting by Loggerhead Sea Turtles Following Sea Surface Warming Sets Stage for Very Long and Stormy Summer

April 24, 2007 Stuttgart, Germany. Dr. Longscneckerhoffman and his fellow associates are all in agreement concerning the upcoming 2007 Hurricane Season.

Finally, his long awaited prediction is in. Of course, he will be changing it every month to adjust for error, but he emphatically states that in his final 2007 prediction, in on November 30th, will be pretty much on the money, unless there is a late storm in December.

He basis his predictions on the egg laying habits of the loggerhead turtle. The endangered little turtle which grows to enormous proportions, only to return to their nest to lay eggs in the early spring, mostly on the beaches of Florida and other sunny places. But oddly, not in Mexico or Arizona.

"It's a schimple formula", Longscheckerhoffman said, "but sometimes there are many schupid people who can't find their own asses, so I will try to make it even more schimple.

Longscheckerhoffman went on to explain his exhaustive studies between the correlation of SST and the cuddly little sea creatures.

First and foremost, Longscheckerhoffman says, you schimply divide the number of sea turtle eggs (approximately 120 per nest) by the SST at the end of May, then multiply that by the last snowfall (in inches, above the 5000 meter height during the latter part of January. Take this numbers square root and divide the common denominator of the number of sea turtles that hatched earlier than expected. Then subtract the actual year in which it happen. The result is the number of Atlantic Hurricanes, give or take.

Longscheckerhoffman went on to explain how many would hit the mainland of Germany and the answer was quite surprising. None! He has been 100 % accurate for the past 78 years.


His next update is due on June 2nd. So far he has uncannily predicted correctly that one named storm would form, but would cause little damage to the Motherland or the United States. He also correctly predicted the storm would be named Arlene or Arnold or something that started with an A.

I THINK WE SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS LONGSCHECKERHOFFMAN DUDE. LOOKS LIKE HES ON THE BALL.

Skyepony

thank you. I usually go to wetsand.com for the wave report, but i dosen't say much is coming. just hopping some blobs are looking good. I also live on the west coast :(
389. Inyo
I hear ya. They had to renovate the greens on the two golf courses I play frequently down here in Miami. The drought and the county water restrictions have mutilated the courses in Florida. Its hard to putt in a sandbox..ya know?

at least they don't water your golf courses during droughts. Here in southern California, some areas are the driest they have been in 100 years and we keep draining our reservoirs down to keep watering those golf courses. ugh. they use a massive amount of water because summer rainfall is negligable.
Link GFS 18Z 228 hrs. I hope this holds true. we surely could use the rain in north florida
This new outlook that came out today makes no sence to me how they have most of south florida shaded in green when we should be at high risk on any given season.
Stormhank thats unlikely to happen remember the futher you got in time the skill level drops of on the model.When you start seeing it threw 24-96 hours with a different models then it should be taken more seriously.
Posted By: Stormworrier at 12:20 AM GMT on May 24, 2007.
Earlier Nesting by Loggerhead Sea Turtles Following Sea Surface Warming Sets Stage for Very Long and Stormy Summer
The shrimping season peaked & ended early this year here on Mosquito Lagoon. Global Forecasting Shrimp!
crackerlogic~ For some reason I was thinking you were east coast. Sorry, waves here been kickin, lifegaurds real busy saving tourists from the rips & jellys thick.
395. IKE
It's raining here in the western Florida panhandle. A rare sight!
397. IKE
His Q & A blog has only 12 posts...hasn't had a post in 5 days. Guess he's not gonna be answering too many questions....maybe he got stumped!
Evening everyone,

We've had some very heavy rainfall here, [Nassau, Bahamas] especially yesterday morning, when it rained heavily for more than 3 hours - the most continuous rain we've had in months.

I don't know about named systems in June, but I do know that years when we have heavy rainfall during the last 10 days of May usually also turn out to be heavy June rainfall years, generally due to passing tropical waves. However, given that this latest event was triggered by a polar air mass, I'm not certain the traditional June pattern will hold.

It'll be interesting to see what eventuates . . .
Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:51 AM GMT on May 24, 2007.
This new outlook that came out today makes no sence to me how they have most of south florida shaded in green when we should be at high risk on any given season.


Yeah that bright green box looks real out of place sitting down there facing all the action!

Their key says much below normal means less than 50% of the long term average. Since the percentage for that area for 2007 is 10-15%; the normal for that area would be at least 20-30%. This would imply that extreme southeast FL experiences hurricane force winds every 4 years as a long term average or 13 strikes in the last 50 years.

You're right...something doesn't make sense here!!!


hey y'all! its been hazy here in central indiana thanks to the georgia and florida wild fires link scroll down on the link
...So it looks like Central Florida is in the crosshairs. Let's have a nice Memorial Day Weekend...'cause it could get dicey this summer!
Insurance people gettin involved in tropical met strikes me as producing conflict-of-interest issues.lol
Let's hope Barry forms soon and gives Florida some rain. This isn't because I want a tropical cyclone, but because Florida really DOES need the rain. Even if you don't get a named storm in June, that's typical, so no need to jump onto every blob a model predicts.
Even if you don't get a named storm in June, that's typical,

Kori,

I don't think u even need the TS, if u get a couple of slow-moving and vigorous tropical waves to come your way. Sometimes the low-wind storms are best for rain content.
more like lets hope it gets dicey here in Central Florida this summer, because thats exactly what need, things to get dicey.


I say we boycott this California weather, I lived there 13 years ago, and Florida has been more like California past several months then Florida.

FLORIDA CITIZENS UNITE TO BOYCOTT HIGH PRESSURE!

lol
400
I wonder if this is the year for Tampa to get hit with the BIG one.
No idea, Wayne, but that is a possibility (as it is every year, or almost). That would be interesting meteorological wise, but believe me when I say I don't want to see that happen, since damage would be catastrophic, no doubt. I still think there is an 80% chance of at least one major hurricane landfall this year in the U.S., and I think that may come from a Cape-Verde hurricane.
BahaHurican, I guess you are right. However, what's to say the tropical waves will be slow-movers? Thus, a tropical storm is a much more easy way of getting rain. Besides, I hardly consider a tropical storm to be "bad" in the least. 70 mph wind gusts with moderate to strong ones, and hurricane-force winds gusts with 70 mph ones is not bad... It may be a little bad for coastal erosion, and coastal wind damage (slight damage), and some power outages on the coast and further inland, but other than that, nothing. I've never heard of a tropical storm producing a tornado stronger than an F1. With the EF scale though, who knows. A tornado is a tornado. Even so, I label tropical storms, unless slow-movers, "WIMPY".
410. Inyo
Jedkins, we in California are tired of the high pressure also. Of course, we KNOW it won't rain until october so its just time to wait.
An interesting study--I must admit I am surprised!

Link
trying again Link
I'll ship some rain to California also, not just Florida. More rain today..sigh.. Is our dry season EVER going to start...
Morning,

That mass of disturbed weather moving off into the EPac is looking extremely vigourous this morning. Isn't this the area where some model was forecasting moderate development?
The GFSx shows a possible Blip in the Southern GOM..June 3rd..Link
Good morning all. Just got in to work. 00z CMC still showing a little something forming, but now has it further west near S. FL.

06z GFS shows a little something in the GOM.
I was wondering if someone could tell me what is the best or should i say most accurate forecaster to listen too.it seems there is alot of different opinions. i know dr masters is good
but i do not know much except by experience as i live in fla panhandle. just curious i am trying to learn. thanks
Take every thing you read here, keep the pieces you like and throw the rest out.
421. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 7:22 AM CDT on May 24, 2007.
Good morning all. Just got in to work. 00z CMC still showing a little something forming, but now has it further west near S. FL.

06z GFS shows a little something in the GOM.


It backed off on that persistent low forming in the western Caribbean...it does still show ample moisture into the SE USA by the middle of next week.

NAM(unreliable)...has a low in the western Caribbean in the 84 hour run.

Whatever happens/develops...I think the dry pattern is close to changing...in a few days.

It rained here at my house last night.......

And good morning to all.........
I'm jealous Ike. I forgot what rain felt like.
423. IKE
Now I'm left with the stinky smell of smoke.
Morning all - anything interesting?

Ike - i know what you mean - live in GA and been smelling smoke for I can't tell you HOW long at this point. Monday was REALLY bad. not so bad the last few days as the wind has been gusting.
Morning StormW - checked out your blog - very cool.
photos are cool too - nice AWARD. ;)

Can you post on that? I had signed in but couldn't figure it out whether i could post or not. Perhaps I should wake up one of my TEENAGERS. I am sure THEY could figure it out - I seemed to have lost all mechanical etc inclinations as soon as I hit 30 and beyond....
ok - i'm outta here - i gotta go to the commissary and get stuff at the grocery store.

Have a good day y'all.

Melissa
WE ARE SAFE GUYS NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT THOSECOMPUTERS ARE OUT TO LUNCH...ALL OF JUNE WILL BE CLEAR SO DONT LET THE BLOBS FOOL YOU BECAUSE THEY WONT DEVELOP....StormKat