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Venice suffers its fourth-worst flood since 1872

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:59 PM GMT on December 03, 2008

Venice, Italy, suffered ocean flooding 1.56 meters (5.1 feet) above mean sea level on Monday, December 1, its fourth-worst flood since modern record keeping began in 1872. The flooding was triggered by a strong low pressure system that passed through Europe, dumping rains of 1-2 inches that helped fill the salt-water lagoon surrounding Venice with high levels of river run-off. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the low brought warm, southerly winds up the length of the Adriatic Sea, which piled up high levels of ocean water into the lagoon. Sustained winds reached 30 mph on the morning of December 1 in Venice. High tides submerged the city again yesterday, but only to a depth of 1.02 meters. As the low pulls away from Italy and river run-off gradually subsides, no further flooding of Venice should occur this week.


Figure 1.Flooding in Venice from the December 1, 2008 flood. Image credit: Venice Water Authority.

Sinking land, rising seas
When Venice was founded sixteen hundred years ago, sea level was about six feet lower than today. Sea level has risen over the centuries as a natural response to our continued emergence from the last Ice Age, thanks to melting of glaciers and ice caps. Global sea level rose eight inches during the 20th century (2 mm/year). The sea level rose by only about 4-5 inches in the Adriatic Sea near Venice during that time, though. However, the rate of global sea level rise has increased by 50% to 3 mm/year in recent decades and was 5 mm/year near Venice during the period 1993-2008. As the seas have risen, Venice has sunk. Since 1897, natural compression of the sediments Venice sit on has resulted in the city sinking about 1.5 inches. Additional sinking of three inches due to pumping of fresh water from an aquifer beneath the lagoon between the 1920s and early 1970s has left the city 4.5 inches lower than at the beginning of the century. In 1900, famed St. Marks Square flooded at high tide six times per year, on average. By 1999, that number had increased to 99 times per year, thanks to the combined effects of higher sea levels and the sinking of the city.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Venice. The city is on an island in a lagoon that opens to the ocean in three places. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Jetties
Jetties built at the three entrances to Venice's lagoon help to hold back the sea, but have also acted as barriers to the natural inflow of fresh sand to replenish beaches within the lagoon. This sand now accumulates along the jetties. The jetties also act as barriers that disrupt ocean currents and contribute to coastal erosion.

Barrier island erosion
Venice's lagoon is protected by a number of barrier islands. These islands are steadily eroding, due to construction projects, summer beach crowds, and beach-going vehicles. Sea walls were built along many of these barrier islands in the 14th century, but high tides now regularly overtop these sea walls.

Salt marsh erosion
Additional flooding in Venice occurs because the protective salt marshes in the lagoon surrounding the city are steadily eroding. This is largely due to the fact that 600 years ago Venice diverted the courses of the four major rivers that flowed into the lagoon, forcing them to empty into the ocean directly. This was done so that sediments would not build up and allow attackers to approach the city via land. Without new sediments to replenish them, the marshes in the lagoon have been steadily eroding away. Water pollution has also contributed to erosion problems. The pollution kills eelgrass, the chief building block of the salt marshes.

Protecting Venice
The "official" word on climate, the 2007 report of the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), predicts a 0.6 - 1.9 foot sea level rise by 2100. However, they cautioned in their report that due to the lack of knowledge about how melting glaciers behave, the actual sea level rise might be higher. A paper published by Pfeffer et al. in Science this September concluded that when considering these unknown glacier melting processes, the "most likely" range of sea level rise by 2100 is 2.6 - 6.6 feet (0.8 - 2.0 meters). These sea level rise possibilities make it imperative that Venice construct barriers to keep the sea out. In 2003, construction began on the MOSE Project, a $5.5 billion system of inflatable gates that will rise up out of the ocean bed to block incoming storm surges from the Adriatic Sea during storm situations. The barriers will block all three entrances to Venice's lagoon, but allow ship traffic to pass through using a lock system. The gates are scheduled to be completed in 2012. In theory, the gates will protect Venice up to a maximum sea level rise of two meters (6.6 feet), which should be adequate for the remainder of the century. However, some scientists have argued that the gates will only protect Venice up to a sea level rise of one foot, and will allow high levels of toxic pollution to build up in the lagoon without the cleansing action of the tides to disperse the pollutants. A 2005 paper warned that if sea level rises 0.5 meters (1.6 feet), the gates would still allow considerable flooding of Venice, and block or delay 2/3 of all shipping traffic trying to pass through the gates.


Figure 3. Schematic drawing of the MOSE gate in the inflated (closed) position. Normally, the gate lies flat on the ocean bottom. When a storm surge threatens, the hollow top of the gate will be filled with air, and the hinged gate will rise to the surface, blocking any incoming storm surges. Image credit: Venice Water Authority.

Resources
The Venice Water Authority has complete info on the MOSE construction project.
NOVA aired a 1-hour show in 2002 on the sinking of Venice, and has some nice interactive web features to look at.

Jeff Masters
St Marks Cathedral Venice
St Marks Cathedral Venice
St Marks Cathedral Venice
sunrise Venice
sunrise Venice
Grand Canal elegence

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Welcome back,
We on small Islands also watch the predictions of Sea level rising!
CRS
Remove double post from da blog hole...
CRS
Thanks Dr. Masters,saw the news reports last night with kids riding waterboards down the center of town,and people walking around with high boots on.
good afternoon doc hope P.R. was good to ya nice update its sad really for whats ahead for all of the low lying coastal communities that will be effected as time goes on
Wow, a new blog and interesting information.
Dr. Masters,

Very cool !!!
welcome back Doc. Hope the vacation went well.

Amazing the flooding in Venice. I was watching the BBC and they showed all the elevated wooden sidewalks and folks walking around in hip boots.

NGC had a show on the flood control measures and they were quite impressive. I do like the balloon idea, also in the show they talked with an engineer on the project and he stated that as sea levels rise further they can just replace the balloons with larger ones. At least they are looking twords the future and not just building to certain assumed specs.

Hey,Bone didn't get a chance to reply to you on the previous blog,but Sun and Mon,don't look like much,system is going to be pretty far out,but may get some ocean effect snow along the east and the cape.Not sure about next week.I'm sure if you keep wishing for your snowstorm,one of these will get us.
LOL just found this image of inside one of the Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft 5303



nice sense of humor
yea NE the sun/mon looks liek a rain event but could possibly have wrap around snow showers.

The one farther out next week looks like the best shot. Going to be a Miller B system and according to the models will happen right at the benchmark ;)

hopefully one of these will produce some snows, Im getting itchy over here.
I think you'll get what you want pretty soon,it seems to be setting up that way.Lots of cold air building in Canada,trough digging in the east,got my snowblower revved up and ready.
yea NE me too. Have the blower all tuned up and waiting to go.

Yea the pattern flattened out this week but after this weekend will be alot of troughyness and a blocking high will be in place and the Siberian Express will be pulling into the station
From Stormcarib:
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/montserrat.shtml
Montserrat
We had some excitement last night around 9:30 pm. The volcano decided to remind us that it is still alive and kicking. I heard the rumbling and went out to see what it was doing. The dome looked like a massive fireball, it was glowing like I have never seen it glow. You could see where the pyroclastic flow was coming down and lighting some fires. I could not see the actual fires due to the hills in between me and the volcano but you could see the glow rising above the hills. The most amazing thing was the ash cloud had a very visible electric storm inside it. It was awesome, it looked like a giant electric ball floating across the sky.
would love to have seen that on film!!
thanks for the update... that's not good for Venice. I've never seen Venice. I have been to Italy, but not there.
Wow a new blog, very interesting. Thanks DR. Jeff
Pottery- "you got mail".

Venice is my most favourite city in the world- it is a magical place- and what the Venetians did orinially to construct it was amazing- unfortunately, the city could not live on tourism alone- and in the 1960's-70's built this industrial zone on reclaimed land outside the lagoon, which has impacteds very negatively on the lagoon, contributed to the sea level rising and pollution of course.. we seem to only learn by our mistakes. All the efforts they are looking at- the gates especially- are still really dicey in terms of saving the city- some like the baloons are very intriguing. We cannot ( the world) lose such a fantastic city, I believe a world heritage site, and can only hope that scientific efforts will continue- I really want to go to Venice- and for that matter Italy- again before I die- fantastico!
So, if Venice is sinking...how does that relate to a supposed sea-level rise?

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TWO-F
10:00 AM FST December 3 2008
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1008 hPa) located near 20.0S 163.0W remains to be slow moving. Position GOOD based on Multispectral infrared/visible with animation and Quikscat. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Cyclonic circulation is well defined from low-mid level with deep convection, persisting to the east and south of the system. Tropical Disturbance "TWO" remains in a moderately sheared environmnet. Global models [UKGS/US/EC] are showing little deepening of "TWO" in the next 24 hours with very little movement.

POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE "TWO" TO FORM INTO A CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS REMAINS LOW
Hi everyone, the late shift is checking in early tonite! I like that word "Fantastico", I can't say it without using both hands to express it!! LOL
Cotillion is now under a heavy snow and blizzard flash warning...

Winds are picking up all of a sudden, the front is moving in.

Up to 8 inches expected. (!)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANALYSIS

INDIAN OCEAN


An area of low pressure located about 120 miles West-northwest of Sumatra has gotten more organized today, as the increasing convection wraps around the vorticity maxima. CIMSS 850 MB map shows high levels of vorticity around the area, which indicates that this system is a well defined low. Furthermore, inflow and outflow channels are well established with this system.


Low vertical wind shear, adequately warm SSTs, and high humidity content are ideal conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. Thus, there is a chance that this system could develop into a tropical cyclone. If this system does the develop, it will likely be a threat to India. The GFS model shows that possible case scenario.


Futuremet: Since hurricane season is over in the Atlantic, I am now monitoring tropical cyclones worldwide. This is my first time writing updates for these regions of the world....so I compensate in advance for any invalid data.
Latest video

where is everyone?
Quoting futuremet:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANALYSIS

INDIAN OCEAN


An area of low pressure located about 120 miles West-northwest has gotten more organized today, as the increasing convection wraps around the vorticity maxima. CIMSS 850 MB map shows high levels of vorticity around the area, which indicates that this system is a well defined low. Furthermore, inflow and outflow channels are well established with this system.


Low vertical wind shear, adequately warm SSTs, and high humidity content are ideal conditions for tropical cyclogenesis. Thus, there is a chance that this system could develop into a tropical cyclone. If this system does the develop, it will likely be a threat to India. The GFS model shows that possible case scenario.


Futuremet: Since hurricane season is over in the Atlantic, I am now monitoring tropical cyclones worldwide. This is my first time writing updates for these regions of the world....so I compensate in advance for any invalid data.


TWC just said "there is a possibility something will develop"

So your data is not invalid lol

where is everyone....I AM TALKING TO MYSELF
There really isn't that much to talk about other than what storms will retire and how much we want snow but we covered that
I always monitor cyclone world wide you don't get the full coverage like with Atlantic and East Pacific cyclones and data is off but it is still entertaining
Be back soon
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I always monitor cyclone world wide you don't get the full coverage like with Atlantic and East Pacific cyclones and data is off but it is still entertaining


Yes, the lack of data makes forecasting more difficult. However, it also challenges me to heighten more skills at forecasting, and helps me understand more about atmospheric dynamics. I find it beneficial


sure is looking better on INDIA KALPANA-1 infrared radar.

waiting to see what the 0530 IST chief meteorological outlook reports says about the low pressure area.
Quoting RTLSNK:
Hi everyone, the late shift is checking in early tonite! I like that word "Fantastico", I can't say it without using both hands to express it!! LOL


Evenin RTLSNK, so right- then you put your three fingers and thumb to your lips and smack and gesture- ah Italia! Fantastico!
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


sure is looking better on INDIA KALPANA-1 infrared radar.

waiting to see what the 0530 IST chief meteorological outlook reports says about the low pressure area.


If that were in the atlantic, it would be named already... very impressive looking
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (2230z 03DEC)
=============================================

The area of convection (96B) located at 6.4N 90.2E or 495 NM east of Sri Lanka has significantly intensified over the past 6 hours. Recent animated infrared imagery and a 1607z AMSU-B Microwave image depicts a consolidating low level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates the system is south of the subtropical ridge axis in a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and strong diffluence aloft. Animated infrared water vapor imagery shows strong poleward outflow and deepening bands of convection and the appearance of a central dense overcast.

Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1005 MB. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.
There's a slight shot for severe weather this evening in the East Texas and Arklatex area:



Photobucket

Photobucket


Y'all take care!

Quoting hurristat:


If that were in the atlantic, it would be named already... very impressive looking


I wouldn't say that....remember fay.

It does look good on satellite imagery, and the outflow channels are established. The GFS model does show it approaching close to India.
Quoting futuremet:


TWC just said "there is a possibility something will develop"

So your data is not invalid lol

where is everyone....I AM TALKING TO MYSELF
You may want to try to sign up for "OBAMAS" cabinet as Chief "FUTUREMET".
Quoting SOUTHFL43YRS:
You may want to try to sign up for "OBAMAS" cabinet as Chief "FUTURMET".


lol
35. futuremet 12:34 AM GMT on December 04, 2008
Quoting hurristat:


If that were in the atlantic, it would be named already... very impressive looking


I wouldn't say that....remember fay.

It does look good on satellite imagery, and the outflow channels are established. The GFS model does show it approaching close to India.

---
The NHC would at least give it a tropical depression status with sustained winds of 25-30 knots.
Quoting SOUTHFL43YRS:
You may want to try to sign up for "OBAMAS" cabinet as Chief "FUTUREMET".


He wouldn't be too good at foreign policy.


91W DT|FT|CI|WND|PRESSURE
T2.0/1.5/1.5 25 kts 1003 hPa
Quoting Drakoen:


He wouldn't be too good at foreign policy.


definitely lol

It looks the South will be dealing with some serious severe weather tonight. The combination of a vigorous cold front and cyclone makes the Texas/Louisiana coastline like tinder for severe weather.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


91W DT|FT|CI|WND|PRESSURE
T2.0/1.5/1.5 25 kts 1003 hPa


This system was a lot more organized monday. It only depends on diurnal phases to flare up.

Satellite loop

G night
Obama is all about the future anyway....the future never shows up in the present...go get em Futuremet!
Sounds like a good match.

Looks like the joke quality has gone down in here...
lol I am not obamamet
Quoting futuremet:


Yes, the lack of data makes forecasting more difficult. However, it also challenges me to heighten more skills at forecasting, and helps me understand more about atmospheric dynamics. I find it beneficial

I agree
One of the greatest things I've learned from tracking hurricanes for four years is that predictions are computer models that judge based on what we know so far but there is other stuff we don't know. The trick to find where a hurricane is going to go is by looking at the trends of the models/predictions. Like with Katrina is was originally foretasted to hit Florida and continue NW then closer to landfall it was predicted to move WNW then W then WSW. With about every long lasting hurricane trends have been more accurate than anything else
Evening .
Nice day here today. A few showers, bright sky mostly. Forecast for the next 3 days, hot, sunny, breezy.
I can live with that.
Rain in our forecast tomorrow but I'm hoping for snow
Hey Pottery! The weather in NW Florida is really cooler than normal. And last week in the Keys, the SW part of the same state, was beautiful. Amazing.
Quoting vortfix:
Cold Sun – Cold Earth: 2008 Now #3 Most Sunspotless Days – Could we Reach #2

we may reach num 1 only problem is when the spots return its normally very violent and its been so quiet for so long and buiilding it may be abnormally violent on there return
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Rain in our forecast tomorrow but I'm hoping for snow
"Hope for snow"...that's not on my wish list! lol!
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I agree
One of the greatest things I've learned from tracking hurricanes for four years is that predictions are computer models that judge based on what we know so far but there is other stuff we don't know. The trick to find where a hurricane is going to go is by looking at the trends of the models/predictions. Like with Katrina is was originally foretasted to hit Florida and continue NW then closer to landfall it was predicted to move WNW then W then WSW. With about every long lasting hurricane trends have been more accurate than anything else


Yes, the computer models are more like calculator (albeit as efficient as a calculator). The calculator only can solve what it was programmed to solve. For example, we do not exactly know what happens at the surface of a tornado. It is obvious tornadoes come in all shape, and strength.
Hey, Sugar.
Strange weather all around.
Had 10" of rain here in Nov., but that was not unusual. What was different was the way it rained. Cloudbursts with loads of hot sun in between. None of those ITCZ weeks when the rain dripped down incessantly. And often, it would rain 3" a mile away and I would be dry. And the next day, the opposite.
Its all good, I guess.........
Yes, strange weather. Got stuck in Atlanta/Hartsfield on Saturday with bad weather, delayed, overbooked flights. Reminds me why I don't like to fly commercial.
strange days indeed
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
strange days indeed

most peculiar, momma.
Good evening everyone......
Quoting sugarsand:
"Hope for snow"...that's not on my wish list! lol!

I'm still in school so snow = snowday
and futuremet 53 I know what you mean some thing just can't be factored into a computer
Here we have "hurricane days", but NEVER wish for one!
I've had a hurricane day once in 2003 you can probably guess the storm and other than a tree falling on our house it was actually pretty neat and probably got me started on hurricanes
When i was a little kid in Indiana i could not wait for those snow days.......loved them...could not wait to play football in the snow...lol
Quoting sugarsand:
Here we have "hurricane days", but NEVER wish for one!
Hey sugar....how was your trip to the Keys (Duck Key, I believe)---probably without a doubt WONDERFUL.
Hey cgirl! It was great. My oldest son went diving every day, youngest one went 3 days. We rented a boat and did some fishing. Catch and release, except for the last day, we kept enough snapper for a dinner. I played a little tennis. A very nice "outdoor" vacation. It was real windy the first two days, but then it was beautiful.
Quoting sugarsand:
Hey cgirl! It was great. My oldest son went diving every day, youngest one went 3 days. We rented a boat and did some fishing. Catch and release, except for the last day, we kept enough snapper for a dinner. I played a little tennis. A very nice "outdoor" vacation. It was real windy the first two days, but then it was beautiful.


HUm fresh snapper is hard to beat......wow

Yep, TampaSpin, Mangrove and Yellow tail, neither of which we have up here. We have red.
Quoting sugarsand:

Yep, TampaSpin, Mangrove and Yellow tail, neither of which we have up here. We have red.


Very, very flavorful fish......
Quoting sugarsand:

Yep, TampaSpin, Mangrove and Yellow tail, neither of which we have up here. We have red.
Oh, yum! Glad you had such a good trip and the kids had a good time too.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Very, very flavorful fish......


With my electric knife i can fillet a complete fish in 1 minute bone free....does not take long to fix dinner....LOL
Duck Key is very quiet, laid back. Key West is so touristy. It was fun for one afternoon. G2G, ya'll have a nice evening!
Well, I guess that shows that Sunspots don't really contribute with Hurricane seasons in terms of Activity. This year had 16 (17 if 94L's considered a Sub-Tropical Storm.) Storms.
Another cold nite in the Plains...

Squall line currently approaching western Louisiana. Not as intense as the portion up north, though. No severe warnings out with this stuff, though, much less a watch. Instability is supposed to be marginal, as well. Even so, I'll be watching this squall line. I love severe weather almost as much as hurricanes.

Just thought I'd pop in...
Great Photos of Venice from The Big Picture - Boston.com

Venice under water
The recent "acqua alta" (high water) in Venice, Italy reached a depth of 1.56 meters (5 ft, 1 in.) on Monday - the deepest flood in 22 years, and the fourth highest flood level in recent history, claimed Venice's Tide Center. The water began to subside on Tuesday, while residents and tourists made their way through the city, hip-waders or not - one man even took the opportunity to ride his wakeboard through Piazza San Marco (until police stepped in). Although this flood was severe enough for the mayor to ask tourists to temporarily stay home, Venetian floods are fairly routine, several occurring every year, and residents usually take it all in stride. (25 photos total)

RSMC: India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
05:30 AM IST December 4 2008
=========================================

  • Yesterday’s low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas persists. It is likely to move west-northwestwards and become more marked during next 24 hours. Under its influence, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.
  • Joint Typhoon Warning Center

    Tropical Cyclone Warning #1 (0300z 04DEC)
    =============================================
    At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone SEVEN (NONAME) has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is located 500 NM east of Sri Lanka and is reported as moving west at 5 knots. Recent animated infrared imagery and a 0044z SSMI Microwave image depicts a consolidating low level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates the system is south of the subtropical ridge axis in a favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and strong diffluence aloft. Animated infrared water vapor imagery shows strong outflow and deepening bands of convection.

    Significant wave height associated with 07B is 10 feet
    Quoting CybrTeddy:
    Well, I guess that shows that Sunspots don't really contribute with Hurricane seasons in terms of Activity. This year had 16 (17 if 94L's considered a Sub-Tropical Storm.) Storms.


    Not to mention all of the hype over cooling due to no sunspots:

    Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

    Of course, it was different earlier this year, but that was due to a strong La Nina, also check out this article from 1988 - during a solar maximum:

    Already La Nina has been credited with a role in causing this summer's drought in the Midwest, the deluges that flooded Bangladesh in September and the severe hurricane season in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. While widespread attention has been paid to the greenhouse effect -- the trend toward global warming due to the increase of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere -- some scientists believe that this winter La Nina will bring on a dramatic, though probably temporary, drop in average global temperatures. Says meteorologist and oceanographer James O'Brien of Florida State University: "We are predicting that by next year, average global temperature will retreat to 1950s levels, slowing up planetary warming by 30 to 35 years."


    That also happened this past winter - but it was also on temporary (the SST graphs show this much better):

    Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

    Not to mention, for the sun freaks things have been going in the wrong direction for some time now; check out Leif Svalgaard's research as well, especially this deadly blow (right-click and rotate clockwise to read) to "the Sun causes global warming/cooling!!!" (solar activity right now is about the same as a century ago, after peaking in the 1950s, which were similar to the mid-1800s; Solar Cycle 23 was very similar to Cycle 13 and Solar Cycle 24 will likely be similar to Cycle 14, which was very weak, and in fact he does predict the weakest solar cycle in a century).
    Of course, the biggest problem with the Sun having a significant impact of climate should be obvious - why isn't there any discernible 11-year cycle (if sensitivity was as high as some denialists try to imply, there would be)? In fact, temperatures at the last solar max around 2001 were colder than now, during a solar minimum (there was also a strong La Nina around that time but not much different; like then, we are also seeing a weak La Nina (currently) follow a strong one). They also seem to forget that "solar max" and "solar min" are not two discrete states; activity gradually rises and falls, so if there was a significant effect on climate, a solar min wouldn't cause a sudden drop in temperatures - and certainly not on the order of half a degree in just a month or two (Dec 2007-Jan 2008; see graphs above, LOTI)! Of course, solar activity also can't explain the similarly fast rise during Feb-March, or why SSTs have been rising since January, or why temperatures during the last 10 years are much warmer than the previous 10 years (ENSO-induced spikes and dips averaged out)...
    India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Number ONE
    DEPRESSION BOB08-2008
    8:30 AM IST December 4 2008
    =========================================

    Subject: Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal

    At 08:30 AM IST, Latest satellite imageries indicate that a Depression has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and lays centered near 6.5N 90.0E or about 650 kms south-southwest of Port Blair, 1300 kms southeast of Chennai, India, and about 1000 kms east-southeast of Tricomalee, Sri Lanka.

    Additional Information
    =======================
    Satellite imagery indicates gradual organization of convection during the past 12 hours. The system shows the curved band pattern with dvorak intensity of T1.5. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1006 hPa. The state of sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

    Associated broken intense convection observed over south Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Ocean between 4.5N and 10.0N and 86.0E and 91.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -40 to -50C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 15 to 20 knots. Wind shear tendency shows no significant change during the next 24 hours. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 11.0N.

    Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.
    Here are some photos from Croatia(Cres under water)



    Link
    Theres something I don't get if we know about a cyclone in the Indian ocean then how come they aren't named for a day or so. Are we keeping an eye on their cyclones and their not. So cyclone 7 just formed in Indian Ocean do people in Sri Lanka Know that?
    morning folks.

    cool one this morning 34* wake up. Looking at rain later today with possible turnover to snow by this evening. Little or no accumulation expected (translation I will have a few inchs on my lawn by tomorrow)

    Weekend is shaping up to be a nice wintery one =)
    Indeed

    Its gonna get cold here in Houston with Highs around Upper 40s to Low 50s for friday

    Lows for today and friday are around to mid to upper 30s

    all according to NWS Houston station/WU
    happy weather another beautiful day ahead high in the low 70s e cent. fl. good luck to all in sri lanka. (a country of millions who share one computer)
    Good Morning from Wilmington N.C.
    32 frosty degrees outside
    Calm winds with clear skies
    Forecast to remain clear with high around 50
    Morning MissNadia
    Quoting Bonedog:
    Morning MissNadia

    Hi Bone.. you got the snow blower ready to go?
    since halloween =)

    nothing to use it on though =( Might have a little white stuff this weekend but mostly grassy surfaces. nothing to write home about.

    Looking at the model solutions nothing on the horizon either =/
    Quoting Bonedog:
    since halloween =)

    nothing to use it on though =( Might have a little white stuff this weekend but mostly grassy surfaces. nothing to write home about.

    Looking at the model solutions nothing on the horizon either =/

    We just don't get much snow... had an inch a couple of years ago.. it was gone by 10 A.M.!!!!!!
    LOL

    we usually get dumped once or twice a year lately.

    Been awhile since we had prolonged snows, days and days with snows. Now we have one or two maybe three storms that gives us 10+ snowfalls.

    Im hoping for the old times, a bunch of little snows (2-4"ers) that keep the white on the ground. Dont get me wrong I LOVE the big storms that shut us down for a day or two but after a week or so the snow turns black and brown and nasty.
    92 Bonedog
    HaHa been there and done that... lived 15 miles west of Boston for many years.... never did like dirty snow!

    93

    LOL one of the "joys" of living in the North East.....

    black snow
    Quoting Bonedog:
    93

    LOL one of the "joys" of living in the North East.....

    black snow

    That black snow is better that yellow snow! LOL
    LOL

    yellow snow

    LOL
    Quoting Bonedog:
    LOL

    yellow snow

    LOL

    Has the state got plenty of salt on your dock?
    Our dock has 80 foot mountains of it. We supply most of the north east
    Good morning!

    Only 3 more weeks until 2009 !!!

    ( Not 4 weeks! )

    GOOD !!
    100. IKE
    Quoting 15hurricanes:
    Good morning!

    Only 3 more weeks until 2009 !!!

    ( Not 4 weeks! )

    GOOD !!


    28 more days left in December, including today....28 divided by 7= 4 weeks.
    Complete Blog Refresh
    Mirror Site

    Latest update from Surfmom is in the comments section under post #234
    glad to hear surfmom's son is moving in the right direction.
    Good Morning everyone....
    Morning Tampa
    105. 786
    Hello, well the rainy season is meant to be over but its been cloudier in Cayman than during the wet season.


    Leftovers appt. Sri Lanka has a good education system and offers free education, even to an extent for university so I'm sure they have lot's of computers. Mind you they also have a huge software industry there and the a lot of IT students (who prob. end up doing customer support for microsoft).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Sri_Lanka

    There is a blob in the SW Caribbean that looks pretty healthy, any comments on this?
    Good morning...
    too funny - no storms to bicker about - now we have how many weeks until the end of the year.

    I prefer Ikes' calculation - too much to do for three weeks.

    Beautiful weather in South Florida - us Floridians freeze when it gets to 65 - was on the soccer field yesterday and it was unbearable. lol
    Are the same big Highs responsible for our lower than usual temps pushing all the moisture down and wringing it out over Central & South America?
    Brazil aims to repair ports destroyed by floods

    Ten dead, thousands hit as rains lash Panama, Costa Rica

    Mimic-TPW
    Quoting zoomiami:
    too funny - no storms to bicker about - now we have how many weeks until the end of the year.

    I prefer Ikes' calculation - too much to do for three weeks.

    Beautiful weather in South Florida - us Floridians freeze when it gets to 65 - was on the soccer field yesterday and it was unbearable. lol


    Here is a better countdown.. I get on the plane at 8am on Tuesday :)

    Off to Mayan Riviera for a week :)
    83. all4hurricanes 10:58 AM GMT on December 04, 2008
    Theres something I don't get if we know about a cyclone in the Indian ocean then how come they aren't named for a day or so. Are we keeping an eye on their cyclones and their not. So cyclone 7 just formed in Indian Ocean do people in Sri Lanka Know that?

    --
    You'd think that if the India Meteorological Department issues a bulletin Sri Lanka would get the message of the system.
    CHIEF FEATURES (Based on 1430 hours IST observations)

  • The Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today, the 4th December 2008 near Lat. 7.0° N and long. 89.5° E, about 630 km south-southwest of Port Blair, 1200 km southeast of Chennai and about 900 km east-southeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka). The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.

  • Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls is likely over Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph are likely over Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 24 hours.

  • Sea condition is rough to very rough along and off Nicobar Islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.

    --
    Sri Lanka is mentioned at least
  • GM bloggers,hope everyone stayed warm in Florida,we here in the northeast are enjoying relative warmth before the deep freeze sets in tomorrow.
    India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
    DEPRESSION BOB08-2008
    17:30 PM IST December 4 2008
    =========================================

    Subject: Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal

    At 17:30 PM IST, Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered near 7.0N 89.5E, or about 630 kms south-southwest of Port Blair, India, 1200 kms southeast of Chennai, India, and 900 kms east-southeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka.

    Additional Information
    ========================
    Satellite imagery indicates that curved band pattern with Dvorak Intensity of T1.5. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 1006 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

    Associated broken intense convection over the south Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Ocean between 4.5N to 10.5N and 83.0E to 90.3E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -40 to -50C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 15-20 knots. Wind shear tendency shows no significant change during past 24 hours. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 12.0N hence, the system lies in favorable upper level divergence zone for intensification.

    Considering all the above, The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.
    Morning NE.

    Ready for the cold this weekend? Looks like you might have a 2-4 incher on sunday.

    Next week better play out as the models have been trending!
    IF THE GFS VERIFIES...A MAJOR NORTHEAST CYCLONE
    AND ARCTIC INTRUSION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
    OCCUR.

    words to my ears HPC thank you. Hopefully it does =)
    116. JRRP
    Quoting 786:
    Hello, well the rainy season is meant to be over but its been cloudier in Cayman than during the wet season.


    Leftovers appt. Sri Lanka has a good education system and offers free education, even to an extent for university so I'm sure they have lot's of computers. Mind you they also have a huge software industry there and the a lot of IT students (who prob. end up doing customer support for microsoft).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Sri_Lanka

    There is a blob in the SW Caribbean that looks pretty healthy, any comments on this?

    is true but don´t has circulation yet
    Link
    CURRENT LONG RANGE FEATURES STRONG...COLD HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING EVENT TUESDAY
    NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

    thank you OKX =) Finally they mention something ahead of time instead of waiting til the 3 day range =)
    100. IKE:

    NO, only 26 days and 14 hours to go for 2008!!

    Not 27 days!!!

    Quoting 15hurricanes:
    100. IKE:

    NO, only 27 days and 12 hours to go for 2008!!

    Not 28 days!!!


    yep 27 1/2 days left in '08
    Quoting JRRP:

    is true but don´t has circulation yet
    Link

    wait till 2009 hurricane season btw that blob won't form cause its not hurricane season anymore
    119. btwntx,

    That's correct!
    I just updated my blog if anyone would like to review!

    TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
    Bone,I can see you smilin from here,actually like snow this time of year,makes it feel like the holidays,and my dog loves it too.
    124. IKE
    Quoting Bonedog:
    IF THE GFS VERIFIES...A MAJOR NORTHEAST CYCLONE
    AND ARCTIC INTRUSION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
    OCCUR.

    words to my ears HPC thank you. Hopefully it does =)


    Wishcaster! LOL!
    Quoting IKE:


    Wishcaster! LOL!


    Bigtime!
    126. IKE
    12 GFS shows what folks are wishcasting for...next week....significant system and cold-air.

    I noticed the high next week(Wednesday in NE Arkansas)...mid 30's.

    12Z GFS
    LOL I am a wishcaster for snow storms =)

    Cant wait =)

    I am really hoping it verifies, keeping my fingers crossed actually.
    looks like la nina trying to kick back up. does anyone have any info on the situation?
    129. IKE
    12Z ECMWF...Link
    (chuckling)50's today,and probably going to be the last time for a long time
    Quoting Bonedog:
    CURRENT LONG RANGE FEATURES STRONG...COLD HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING EVENT TUESDAY
    NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

    thank you OKX =) Finally they mention something ahead of time instead of waiting til the 3 day range =)
    they dont have to wait its coming in a big way
    128. keywestdingding:

    looks like la Nina trying to kick back up. does anyone have any info on the situation?

    November 26, 2008
    Lingering La Nina effects. Although the La Nina that began in the Fall of 2007 ended in June, its influence of light shear lingered. by NOAA

    Click here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20081126_hurricaneseason.html
    Link
    What is this??? Probably a dud but 94L looked like this once
    Good afternoon.
    In for a short.
    Remember to send a Prayer in the direction of Gabriel, Surfmom and Family. Good thoughts are Powerful things.











    128. keywestdingding,

    Note from NOAA in 1999.

    Even if La Nina fades, NOAA said that won't change the conditions conducive to more hurricanes- reduced vertical wind shear across the western tropical Atlantic.

    2 solid days of essay work, my brain is cooked good and proper.

    How are things in WULand?
    This looks like a mape with a major Snow storm looming big time with much cooler Temps and alot of moisture...

    Its going to be fun on the east coast next week!!!!
    Quoting TampaSpin:
    This looks like a mape with a major Snow storm looming big time with much cooler Temps and alot of moisture...


    that map is confusing but I really want that snow
    India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FOUR
    DEPRESSION BOB08-2008
    23:30 PM IST December 4 2008
    =========================================

    Subject: Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal

    At 23:30 PM IST, Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centered near 7.0N 89.0E, or about 650 km south-southwest of Port Blair, India, 1150 km southeast of Chennai, India, and about 850 km east-southeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.
    gustav will not be retired
    Quoting 15hurricanes:
    128. keywestdingding:

    looks like la Nina trying to kick back up. does anyone have any info on the situation?

    November 26, 2008
    Lingering La Nina effects. Although the La Nina that began in the Fall of 2007 ended in June, its influence of light shear lingered. by NOAA

    Click here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20081126_hurricaneseason.html


    From the latest NOAA weekly update - notice the "weak La Nina conditions present" wording, although they still say neutral:

    Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

    (one thing to note is that weak La Nina conditions were also present during the winter of 2005-2006; an El Nino developed later in 2006).
    Its 72deg in Tampa at 5:30.....wow.....what a great day today.....
    Good evening everyone! Looks like a nice little set up for this upcoming week here in the NE
    Quoting system545:
    gustav will not be retired
    you will be
    Offseason = Quiet Blog...
    echo.......... (echo)
    Still nobody?
    150. IKE
    Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
    you will be


    LOL.

    Yeah...this blog absolutely slows to a crawl in the winter.

    177 days...
    6 hours....
    27 minutes and the season starts again.
    Hey FF.. I was cruising through and saw you were lonely. I live in Florida and we won't get it as bad as you by alot, but a nor easter still makes things ugly here. I don't think I've posted in two months but I stop by every day to read and look around. Anyway, good to meet you, nice cobia, see ya around.
    Hello Ike.
    any major cold fronts going to make through so. fla. in the next ten days? (Major to me means high temps. in 60's)
    How can someone say Gustav won't retire it caused 14 billion in damage So many storms have done less damage and still been retired.
    Fiji Meteorological Services
    Tropical Disturbance Summary
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-F
    10:00 AM FST Decembet 5 2008
    ==========================================

    At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1007 hPa) located near 21.0S 166.0W and is reported moving southwest at 10 knots. Position GOOD based on Multispectral Infrared/Enhanced Infrared/Visible satellite with animation and recent Quikscat Pass. Sea surface temperature is 29C.

    Gale-Force Winds
    =================
    Expect clockwise winds of 25 to 30 knots, increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 to 25 hours within 180 miles along the southeastern and southern quadrant of Tropical Depression TWO away from the center

    Additional Information
    =========================
    Mid-upper level convection has been sheared off to the east and south of Depression TWO with low level circulation center exposed. Depression TWO remains in a moderately sheared environment and is located to the east of a mid-level trough. Global models [UKGS/US/EC] are showing little deepening of 02F in the next 24 hours and are moving it southwest intially and then southward.

    POTENTIAL FOR 02F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
    Indianrivguy
    Hope all is well in the lagoon
    Even if La Nina fades, NOAA said that won't change the conditions conducive to more hurricanes- reduced vertical wind shear across the western tropical Atlantic.

    Yes, I understand NOAA !!!!

    UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NEWS
    WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230

    "NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC) identified the high likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season as early as May," said John Jones, deputy director of the National Weather Service. "We expected an above normal season in part on the wind, air pressure, and ocean temperature patterns that recur annually for decades at a time and favor active hurricane seasons. These patterns make up the active phase of the Atlantic's multi-decadal signal."

    Dr. Gerry Bell, head of NOAA's long-range hurricane forecast team, said, "These conditions were in place by early August, setting the stage for a very busy season."

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/NOAA_pr_12_1_03.html


    I'm not seeing anything in any forecasts regarding a major east coast storm next week. Are you just seeing this in models??? Thanks in advance.
    November 26, 2008

    An ongoing multi-decadal singal. This combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions has spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995. by NOAA
    Quoting Bonedog:
    CURRENT LONG RANGE FEATURES STRONG...COLD HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING EVENT TUESDAY
    NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

    thank you OKX =) Finally they mention something ahead of time instead of waiting til the 3 day range =)
    Quoting pottery:
    Good afternoon.
    In for a short.
    Remember to send a Prayer in the direction of Gabriel, Surfmom and Family. Good thoughts are Powerful things.












    Hi Pottery- ccouldn't agree more and "you got mail"

    but for those interested in the tropical Atlantic, #786's post is interesting re the weather patterns. Not that we do not get occasional rain, fairly high temperatures etc. going into december- BUT since October we have had steady rain days- only ending this week; and look at the train still coming across from Africa- not saying any of it will amount to much, but very unusual for this time of year- and look how the blob exploded in the SW Caribbean! If I lived in nicaragua or honduras I would wonder what the hades is going on this year!!! Any thoughts?? I know it's hard to break away from the nostalgia of christmas and snow and all the weather joys associated with it- but those of us out here in the Caribbean would like to hear from the "masters" ( not necessarily Dr. Masters, of course)

    Hellooo is anyone there??? ( not you pottery- I now you are there, ha, ha, ha!
    Hello everyone.....Yes next week it appears there will be one very large snow or freezing rain storm.......
    Quoting usa777:
    I'm not seeing anything in any forecasts regarding a major east coast storm next week. Are you just seeing this in models??? Thanks in advance.



    Go to my Blog and look at the models.....
    165. IKE
    Quoting indianrivguy:
    Hello Ike.


    Hello.....and good evening to all.

    61 degrees at my house this evening.
    73 here in west palm, fla.
    Quoting TampaSpin:



    Go to my Blog and look at the models.....

    Thanks Tampa...Great info..
    Thanks Shep.. it is looking pretty good, the discharges stopped and it bounced back pretty good. This is the best it has been since Francis/Jeanne on my end.
    169. IKE
    Scattered showers here in the Florida panhandle with a cold-front moving through.....

    UNTIED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE OF NEWS
    WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230


    WOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    i guess no cold fronts for so. fla. for the next 10 days...lowest forecast for west palm is 59 Sunday morning.
    Nice to meet you indianiverguy. I went backcountry fishing on the banana and indian rivers not too long ago, maybe 2 weeks ago on a trip to cocoa beach.

    I'm getting the cold front up here too. yay, 42 and a cold rain...
    Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
    you will be


    Gustav will 1000% be retired. Heck it did more damage than Charley.
    It's raining here yeah
    but it is 42 degrees so no snow
    (my last three words rhymed =)
    Quoting all4hurricanes:
    It's raining here yeah
    but it is 42 degrees so no snow
    (my last three words rhymed =)


    Until next weeks work week looks like... snow, or ice, or sleet, or freezing rain. haha
    4 different places in Florida!

    1) Northwest Florida: Tallahasee, Pensacola and Panama City!

    2) North Florida: Gainesville, Ocala, St. Augustine and Jacksonville!

    3) Central Florida: Tampa, Orlando, Venice, Sarasota, Cocoa and Melbourne!

    4) South Florida: Naples, Sanibel Island, Miami, West Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, Key West and Hollywood!
    MJO has been in reverse the last 3 days, it almost always goes counterclockwise.


    Depression BOB08-2008
    I really love my owned hurricane sites !!!!

    I don't need TampaSpin's sites EVER !!!!!!!

    I'm very very very very bored of TampaSpin EVER !!!!!!!! That's very very very very gross !!!!

    Cool it !!!!!!!!!!


    good holiday song for our W.U. family...and the number one program on t.v. last night..

    I can't wait. What does everyone want for the holidays? I could go for a record breaking Nor' Easter, of at least 3 feet of snow.
    how about this...what is your favorite holiday movie..and to keep it weather related...with snow in it?
    tough pick for me...this is a great ending for a holiday flick..

    TROPICAL CYCLONE 7 ANALYSIS

    The tropical disturbance near Sri Lanka has gotten more defined today, thus, it is now upgraded to tropical cyclone number 7. According to the latest satellite imageries, thunderstorm activity has increased substantially, and it seems that the majority of the circulation is embedded within the primary convection mass. Environmental conditions are not as favorable as yesterday due to an increase in vertical wind shear levels. However, wind shear levels are expected to decrease again to about 5-10 knots, hastening tropical cyclogenesis. Furthermore, an adjacent anticyclone will help it distrubute its energy with greater efficacy, by reinforcing lower level convergence and upper level divergence. Despite the favorable conditions, this system is not expected to become a vigorous tropical cyclone, due to the lack of time it will be over water. The cyclone is expected to make landfall in Sri Lanka around Sunday morning, and will perhaps be a weak category cyclone or a 60-70 MPH storm. Regardless, it is still best that residents in this area prepare for this system, in case something unexpected happens.

    An anticyclone to its north is the primary steering current for this system, thus, a general track towards the West-northwest is highly reasonable.


    LATEST VIDEO FROM FUTUREMET PRODUCTIONS




    remember surfmom...you always have friends...love Clarence


    Deep Depression (T2.0) from India Meteorological Department
    futuremet...good video, tech. wise...but would not call it the "Best" of 2008. Many people died and sustained major damage that will change their lives forever... and I would not deem that a good title.
    Well after days of searching I finally found a Tropical Weather Outlook archive that goes back to 2000....Send me a WU mail and ill send you the link.

    Thought this was kinda interesting....just goes to show you how big Wilma was.

    550
    ABNT20 KNHC 120840
    TWOAT
    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
    530 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2005

    FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    AN UNUSUALLY LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED NEARLY
    STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN
    SEA... AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS... FROM FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS
    SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. THE MAIN CENTER OF THE LOW
    IS LOCATED NEAR JAMAICA... WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER LOCATED ABOUT
    450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
    . A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
    THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWARD ACROSS
    HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND THEN
    CONTINUING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
    CARIBBEAN SEA... AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS
    ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY... IS
    EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND
    POSSIBLE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT
    PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
    PUERTO RICO... AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION
    ...WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IN SOME OF THE
    STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

    ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
    THURSDAY.

    FORECASTER STEWART

    $$

    India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
    DEEP DEPRESSION BOB08-2008
    05:30 AM IST December 5 2008
    =========================================

    Subject: Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal

    At 5:30 AM IST, The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestward and intensified into a deep depression. The Deep Depression lays centered near 7.5N 88.5E or about 650 kms southwest of Port Blair, India, 1100 kms southeast of Chennai, India, and 800 kms east-southeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka.

    Additional Information
    =======================
    Satellite imagery indicates more organized convection during the past 12 hours. The system shows the curved band pattern with dvorak intensity of T2.0. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots and a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system's center.

    Associated broken to solid intense to very intense convection observed between 5.5N to 10.0N and 83.0E to 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -60C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 15-20 knots. Wind shear tendency shows no significant change during the past 24 hours. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge. which roughly runs along 12.0N hence, the system lies in favorable upper level divergence zone for intensification.

    Considering all the above, The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction
    GALE WARNING 002 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 05/0345 UTC 2008 UTC.
    ==========================================

    At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1005 hPa) located near 22.0S 167.0W and is reported moving southwest at 10 knots.

    Gale-Force Winds
    =================
    expect clockwise winds of 25 to 30 knots, increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 to 18 hours within 150 miles along the southeastern and southern quadrant of Tropical Depression TWO away from the center

    AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH TD02F.
    Quoting 15hurricanes:
    I really love my owned hurricane sites !!!!

    I don't need TampaSpin's sites EVER !!!!!!!

    I'm very very very very bored of TampaSpin EVER !!!!!!!! That's very very very very gross !!!!

    Cool it !!!!!!!!!!




    15hurricanes I really appreciate the kind words. Sorry if i bore you and gross you....WOW
    Quoting 15hurricanes:
    4 different places in Florida!

    1) Northwest Florida: Tallahasee, Pensacola and Panama City!

    2) North Florida: Gainesville, Ocala, St. Augustine and Jacksonville!

    3) Central Florida: Tampa, Orlando, Venice, Sarasota, Cocoa and Melbourne!

    4) South Florida: Naples, Sanibel Island, Miami, West Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, Key West and Hollywood!


    Completely wrong......You need to stay up north and keep your brain frozen....maybe they will find a cure for you!
    India Meteorological Department
    Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SIX
    DEEP DEPRESSION BOB08-2008
    8:30 AM IST December 5 2008
    ======================================

    Subject: Deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal: Pre-cyclone watch for Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts

    At 8:30 AM IST, The Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred near 7.5N 88.5E, or about 650 km southwest of Port Blair, India, 1100 km southeast of Chennai, India, and 800 km east-southeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka.

    Additional Information
    =======================
    Satellite imagery indicates more organized convection during the past 12 hours. The system shows the curved band pattern with Dvorak Intensity of T2.0. Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots and a central pressure of 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the system's center.

    Associated broken to solid intense to very intense convection observed over area between 5.5N to 10.0N and 83.0E to 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -60C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 15-20 knots. Wind shear tendency shows no significant change during the past 24 hours. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 12.0 hence, the system lies in a favorable upper level divergence zone for intensification.

    Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards north Sri Lanka, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coast during next 72 hours.

    Forecast and Intensity
    ======================
    Current(0830 AM IST): 7.5N 88.5E - 30 knots
    24 HRS: 8.5N 86.5E - 35-40 knots
    48 HRS: 9.0N 84.5E - 40-45 knots
    72 HRS: 9.5N 82.5E - 40-45 knots

    --
    I hope the IMD keep the bottom information, the future track and predicted intensity, for future cyclones as well.. a nice feature for them to bring to their bulletin/advisories.
    GALE WARNING 003 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 05/0717 UTC 2008 UTC.
    ==========================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1006 hPa) located near 21.6S 167.0W and is reported moving southwest at 10 knots.

    Gale-Force Winds
    =================
    expect clockwise winds of 25 to 30 knots, increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 to 18 hours within 150 miles along the southeastern and southern quadrant of Tropical Depression TWO away from the center

    AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH TD02F.
    Man, it's really cold here..-4C was the high. Tomorrow morning's forecast temperature is -12C (around 10F).
    Fiji Meteorological Services
    Tropical Disturbance Summary
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-F
    21:00 PM FST December 5 2008
    ==========================================

    At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 02F (1006 hPa) located near 21.6S 167.0W and is reported moving southwest at 10 knots. Position GOOD based on Multispectral Infrared/Enhanced Infrared Radar with animation and 0802z Quikscat Pass. Sea Surface Temperature is around 29C.

    Gale-Force Winds
    =================
    expect clockwise winds of 25 to 30 knots, increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 to 18 hours within 150 miles along the southeastern and southern quadrant of Tropical Depression TWO away from the center

    Mid-upper level convection remains sheared to the east and south of Tropical Depression TWO with low level circulation center exposed. "TWO" remains in a moderately sheared environment and is located to the east of a mid-level trough. Global models [UKGS/US/EC] are showing little deepening of Tropical Depression TWO in the next 24 hours and are moving it southwest.

    POTENTIAL FOR Tropical Depression "TWO" TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
    darn and here the current temperature reads 3F (-16C)
    Good Morning all from Coastal N.C.
    50F
    Calm wind
    cloudy skies with good vis.
    NO ORCAS HERE...yet!
    Good morning, all

    We went to beach many times in "SOUTH Florida" and calm things or calm weather in 1970's!!!
    Not CENTRAL!
    My mom passed away 1 year ago!

    The 1995-2008 has been the most active for Atlantic hurricanes in the historical record.

    2009 to 3009 Atlantic hurricane seasons???
    Good Morning all :)

    Victoria BC

    37°F

    * Wind: NE 6m/h
    * Sunrise: 7:50
    * Sunset: 16:18

    * Relative Humidity: 93%
    * Pressure: 1,024.40 mb
    * Visibility: 0.0 miles
    * Ceiling: ft

    Cancun, where I will be on Tuesday :)

    60 °F
    Partly cloudy

    * Feels Like: -
    * Wind: NW 4m/h

    * Relative Humidity: 94%
    * Pressure: 1,019.10 mb
    * Visibility: 6.8 miles
    * Ceiling: 30000 ft


    Complete Blog Refresh
    Mirror Site
    Quoting MissNadia:
    Good Morning all from Coastal N.C.
    50F
    Calm wind
    cloudy skies with good vis.
    NO ORCAS HERE...yet!


    Everyone should have ORCA's. we make great pets, and we can be house trained :)
    Quoting Orcasystems:


    Everyone should have ORCA's. we make great pets, and we can be house trained :)


    Hmm - about the house trained part, would have to have your significant other weigh in on that one.
    Quoting zoomiami:


    Hmm - about the house trained part, would have to have your significant other weigh in on that one.


    No way.. she fibs :)
    Dr.Masters,
    Thank you for that tragic update, I hope you have a great day!
    1851 to 1994 Atlantic hurricane seasons!

    "WE JUST CAME OUT OF AN INACTIVE PERIOD (that ended in the mid-1990's)." he said.
    Latest message from surfmom, comment 333 in my blog. Keep the prayers and good thoughts flowing :)

    Quoting Orcasystems:


    No way.. she fibs :)


    lol
    Quoting 15hurricanes:
    1851 to 1994 Atlantic hurricane seasons!

    "WE JUST CAME OUT OF AN INACTIVE PERIOD (that ended in the mid-1990's)." he said.


    Why aren't you in school....Isn't grade school in session today......ROFLMAO
    The Jobless claims was almost Double what was expected in November.....get ready for a rough ride on Wall Street....no bottom yet!

    Everyone have a good day......IM out till late evening.
    One thing of note! The storm that is predicted next week seems to be looking stronger on models on the last runs......Go to my blog to look at the models....Next week looks like a major extreme weather week with a very strong NorEaster developing and severe weather in the South.
    214. BtnTx
    "The price of Brent crude oil slumped to 39.77 dollars a barrel in trading here on Friday -- the lowest point in almost four years -- on prospects of a severe drop in energy demand, traders said. "

    From Breitbart.com.

    I am not sure whether this is good or bad news. Maybe it is not news at all...
    Back from School

    It looks like tropical cyclone seven in the Indian Ocean remain relatively the same. Some strengthening is possible tomorrow, as shear decreases.

    I JUST HOPE THE GFS MODEL IS WRONG ABOUT THIS FORECAST. It Has been forecasting a tropical cyclone to hit Bangladesh for the past 48 hours now.

    GFS MODEL

    SELECT THE FOLLOWING

    Level: 925 MB and MSL

    Domain: Southern Asia
    Good afternoon...
    Here's an article (link) to read concerning Our (US) economy

    not good at all

    Link
    hey folks
    MORE IMPORTANTLY...STRONG WINDS USHERING IN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT. POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY
    WINDS
    (25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 40S MPH) LATE SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT...STRONG CAA AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES
    BETWEEN BOMBING LOW OVER GEORGES BANK AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM OHIO VALLEY. TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO TEENS/LOWER 20S AREAWIDE...WITH WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS CITY/COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO INTERIOR.

    going to be a cold weekend folks!!
    Hey,Bone,looks like the Tuesday storm is going to be mostly wet for us,but a late week storm may be different
    NE I noticed that. The tuesday storm on these runs seems to be a ridge runner the late week system has the biggest potential right now.

    I am still keeping my eye on the tuesday system for my area if it runs more offshore then the models (which just happened today actually) show then its a winter wonderland here. By you though would maybe see a changeover late at night to snow but mostly a rain event for you.

    The late week storm has the distict possiblity of being the biggie for the I-95 though.

    Still wishcasting for the tuesday one though =)

    LET IT SNOW
    LET IT SNOW
    LET IT SNOW
    Quoting Bonedog:
    NE I noticed that. The tuesday storm on these runs seems to be a ridge runner the late week system has the biggest potential right now.

    I am still keeping my eye on the tuesday system for my area if it runs more offshore then the models (which just happened today actually) show then its a winter wonderland here. By you though would maybe see a changeover late at night to snow but mostly a rain event for you.

    The late week storm has the distict possiblity of being the biggie for the I-95 though.

    Still wishcasting for the tuesday one though =)

    LET IT SNOW
    LET IT SNOW
    LET IT SNOW


    LOL,neighbors must be getting tired of seeing you out there doing your snow dance,but in a very active pattern,so one of these is going to hit us,talking maybe upper 50's at some point for us Tuesday.
    Good afternoon.
    Temp 79F
    Wind, Calm.
    It is raining. Nice, gentle, constant rain.
    AAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!
    224. DDR
    Quoting pottery:
    Good afternoon.
    Temp 79F
    Wind, Calm.
    It is raining. Nice, gentle, constant rain.
    AAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!

    typical december rains my friend.
    True, DDR.
    How are you doing ?
    The last two GFS runs look interesting conducting baroclinic cyclogenesis along the tail end of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. If the forecast hold true that would be some beneficial rains for the deep south. The ECMWF looks likes this solution but shows the development occurring a little later as some shortwave energy ejects around the base of a longwave trough over the ECONUS. The CMC has a more aggressive solution with the vertically titled low evolving deeply in the mid and upper levels lower the 500mb heights behind the surface low. Will be interesting to see which solution pans out.
    26 DAYS AND 7 HOURS LEFT IN '08!

    NOT 27 DAYS!
    2009 Atlantic hurricane season!

    I can't wait!!!
    Drak,
    Either solution,sounds like it spells trouble for the northeast
    Subject: Deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal

    At 23:30 PM IST, The Deep Depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centered near 8.5N 87.0E, about 900 km southeast of Chennai, India, 800 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam, India, and 600 km east of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts skirting north Sri Lanka coast during next 72 hours.

    Based on the latest analysis with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and other conventional techniques, the estimated future track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

    Current (23:30 PM IST)
    8.5N 87.0E - 30 knots
    24 HRS: 9.5N 84.0E - 35 knots
    48 HRS: 10.0N 81.0E - 35 knots
    72 HRS: 10.5N 78.0E - 25 knots
    I just ignored TampaSpin !!!!!
    Quoting NEwxguy:
    Drak,
    Either solution,sounds like it spells trouble for the northeast


    The jet stream will steer it up the eastern seaboard as coastal system. It will be a problem on the backside of the low behind the 0C line at the surface and the negatives at 850mb the 540dm looks well inland perhaps not until the low moves up north into the Gulf of Maine will the residual moisture allow snowfall closer to the coast. The prospects look good for the inland areas as for a snowfall is concerned the ECMWF has a more degenerative process with the low moving out farther east, the CMC and GFS looks to have more aggressive solutions with the development of the frontogenesis and cyclogenesis when the low tracks up the eastern seaboard.
    233. IKE
    New blog folks......
    234. jride
    TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN:

    NO TIME TO STAY ON THE BLOG... ALTHOUGH: THANKS TO THOSE OF YOU WHOM HAVE EDUCATED ME OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS.

    I AM A CATASTROPHE (WIND) ADJUSTER LOOKING FOR INFORMATION ON SURVIVORS OF HURRICANE IKE. IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION, PLEASE SEND AN EMAIL TO JASONCZERWINSKI@YAHOO.COM

    I AM ATTEMPTING TO CLOSE FILES FOR THOSE CLAIMS DOWN ON THE SHORELINE AND AM MAKING A FINAL ATTEMPT WITH DIFFERENT AVENUES TO COLLECT AS MUCH INFORMATION I CAN TO HELP BOTH INSURED AND TWIA.

    THANKS.

    JASON