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Vance Forms in the Eastern Pacific; the Atlantic Goes Quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:05 PM GMT on October 31, 2014

Tropical Storm Vance formed in the Eastern Pacific on Thursday afternoon. Satellite images show that Vance is struggling with dry air and wind shear, with just a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that had not improved in organization since Thursday. By Saturday, the wind shear should relent, allowing intensification into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The storm's heaviest rains will remain well offshore from Mexico through Sunday, but our two top models for predicting hurricane tracks--the GFS and European models--forecast that Vance will get pulled to the northeast by a trough of low pressure early next week, and make landfall in Mainland Mexico northwest of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday night. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain low, 5 - 10 knots, though Monday, then ramp up significantly on Monday night and Tuesday as Vance gets caught up in the trough of low pressure that will sling it into Mexico. The higher wind shear should be able to significantly weaken Vance before landfall, making heavy rain the primary threat. In their 11 am EDT Friday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave a 15% chance that Vance would bring tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph to Puerto Vallarta and the tip of the Baja Peninsula. Vance's moisture will likely bring heavy rain and the threat of flooding to Texas on Wednesday.


Figure 1. VIIRS satellite image of Tropical Storm Vance off the Pacific coast of Mexico on Thursday, October 30, 2014. At the time, Vance had top sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

A near-record active 2014 Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Vance's formation gives the 2014 Eastern Pacific (east of 140°W) 20 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 8 intense hurricanes in 2014. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year. This year is the busiest year since 1992, which set records for total number of named storms (25), hurricanes (14), and intense hurricanes (8). If we include the Central Pacific between 140°W and 180°W, these record tallies in 1992 were 28 named storms, 16 hurricanes, and 10 intense hurricanes. The 2014 totals in the combined Eastern and Central Pacific basins so far are 21 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 9 intense hurricanes (Genevieve did not become a hurricane and then major hurricane until it crossed from the Eastern Pacific into the Central Pacific, and Category 1 Hurricane Ana existed only in the Central Pacific, not the Eastern Pacific.) On average, we can expect one more named storm and no hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific in November; I expect we will get 1 - 2 more named storms--Winnie and Xavier--this year, after Vance. The top four busiest years in the Eastern Pacific now stands like this:

1. 1992 - 24 named storms
2. 1985 - 22 named storms
3. 1983 - 21 named storms
4. 2014 - 20 named storms
4. 1990 - 20 named storms

Arabian Sea's Tropical Cyclone Nilofar destroyed by wind shear
In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, Cyclone Nilofar has been shredded by high wind shear of 50 knots, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued its last advisory on the system. Nilofar's remnants will bring a few areas of heavy rain to the India/Pakistan border region.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Nilofar in the Arabian Sea on Friday morning, October 31, 2014. At the time, Nilofar was a dissipating tropical storm with 40 mph winds, and the low-level circulation had been exposed to view by high wind shear. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Nuri forms in Western Pacific
The Western Pacific has become active again, with the formation of Tropical Storm Nuri. Nuri is headed towards Japan, and may pass close enough to Japan next Thursday and Friday to bring them heavy rain.

Quiet in the Atlantic
The Atlantic is quiet today, with no areas of concern to discuss. None of the three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predicts any development in the Atlantic over the next five days. With November at hand and El Niño-like atmospheric conditions in place, the odds of getting Tropical Storm Isaias before the end of the Atlantic hurricane season on November 30 are probably around 30%.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank your Dr. Masters....I finally feel that us folks in south Florida can finally take a deep breath and relax....
from last blog

349. Tazmanian
8:09 AM PDT on October 31, 2014
Quoting 332. vongfong2014:

Come to my blog for some more info. Please come!


why are you uesing Retired hurricane names has winter storm names hurricane andrew did a lot of damgs and a lot of people on here may not like it
i'd give nov. alittle higher % since we've had an active oct. thanks dr masters
naming winter storms? i dont think it catching on. notice how people never forget big hurricane names. winter storms not even close.
thanks dok!
Quoting Tazmanian:
from last blog

349. Tazmanian
8:09 AM PDT on October 31, 2014
Quoting 332. vongfong2014:

Come to my blog for some more info. Please come!


why are you uesing Retired hurricane names has winter storm names hurricane andrew did a lot of damgs and a lot of people on here may not like it

because we decided to. the list will not change.
i don't think the e pac can crank out 25...but it sure has given 92 a run for its money
The 14z RTMA 2.5km 2-meter temperature map shows frigid air from Canada flowing into the United States as a 1039mb arctic high pushes a strong cold front southeastward. This front is expected to continue in that direction and will clear most of the remainder of the lower 48 tonight into tomorrow morning. By Sunday morning, the 6z GFS suggests temperatures will be 15-20F below average across a good chunk of the Southeast United States.




Concurrently, a very powerful shortwave trough (500mb height anomalies 5-6 standard deviations below average!) is expected to round the base of the main trough across the East United States and initiate the deepening of a 1007mb low off the North Carolina coastline. In addition, this trough is expected to deliver copious amount of snowfall to the higher elevations of NC/TN/VA (>8"?). Meanwhile, the low offshore the North Carolina coastline is forecast to track generally northward and should move ashore the southeastern tip of Maine by Sunday afternoon. While temperatures will likely be a little too warm and moisture a little too scarce for a snowstorm for a majority of the Northeast, the same cannot be said for Maine, where the GFS is outputting totals over a foot and a half (in higher elevations).





This arctic blast is only expected to be short-lived, and it should be countered by above-average temperatures next week, but based on a combination of factors (that I'll list in my winter blog tomorrow), this is just the start of what should be a cold and snowy winter for people east of the Rockies.
Update on ~ Landslide in Sri Lanka on Wednesday, 29 October, 2014 at 09:52 (09:52 AM) UTC.

Updated: Friday, 31 October, 2014 at 04:57 UTC
Description
Hundreds of desperate people dug with their bare hands in the village of Koslanda in southern Sri Lanka today, seeking their loved ones buried under a mudslide on Wednesday. They defied police orders to stop after Disaster Management Minister Mahinda Amaraweera said that there was no chance of finding more survivors at the high-altitude tea plantation. There were conflicting reports of how many people were missing in the slide, which struck Wednesday morning in the central hills after heavy monsoon rains. Mr Amaraweera said that fewer than 100 people had been killed. But his own Disaster Management Centre reported 190 missing, and locals say more than 200 may be dead. The search was suspended last night because of further heavy rain.
Thanks Doc..
The ACE for the East Pacific is at ~190 at the moment. I think this season has a good shot to be the 6th highest season in terms of ACE (current 6th highest is the 1984 season with 193 ACE). I think top 5 might be difficult to crack, unless we get another storm after Vance or Vance intensifies a bit more than forecast (current 5th highest is the 1993 season with 201 ACE)

This season will likely tie the record for amount of hurricanes with the 1990 and 1992 seasons (16) though.
Quoting 6. 62901IL:


because we decided to. the list will not change.
Thank you for support! Have you named Albus yet?
In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, Cyclone Nilofar has been shredded by high wind shear of 50 knot"

Thanks Doc. Amazing what high wind shear can do!
Also, today the halloween temperature record was smashed by 3.5C.

Warmest UK Halloween on record



This year's Halloween is the warmest on record in the UK, BBC weather has confirmed.

A temperature of 23.5C (74.3F) was recorded in Gravesend, Kent, surpassing the previous record of 20.0C.



Link

Today certainly felt like a pleasant summer day, despite the fact it's 1st November tomorrow!
Isn't it amazing we got to the V storm? Nari may become a major typhoon.
High Wind Watch
Statement as of 9:52 AM EDT on October 31, 2014
...High wind watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a high wind watch...which is in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* Location...eastern Massachusetts except Cape Cod and the islands and all of Rhode Island.

* Winds...north 20 to 30 mph with gusts possible up to 60 mph.

* Timing...expect winds to increase Saturday afternoon peaking overnight into Sunday morning.

* Impacts...power lines...trees...and tree limbs may be downed by these winds. Fully or partially leaved trees will be the most susceptible to this damage.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A high wind watch means the potential exists for strong damaging winds to develop in the mentioned areas. These strong winds are capable of Downing trees and power lines as well as causing property damage. If a High Wind Warning is issued...stay inside and away from windows.
We had a Halloween costume competition at work today, someone came dressed in Ebola protective clothing...raised a few eyebrows.
Florida waking up to these Saturday morning, Can't wait here in S Miami Dade County!



heavy snow at my house by the weekend
Quoting capeflorida:
Florida waking up to these Saturday morning, Can't wait here in S Miami Dade County!



Could see temps this cold on Sunday morning across Florida and the S.E.
Quoting 24. capeflorida:

Florida waking up to these Saturday morning, Can't wait here in S Miami Dade County!




I'm in same general area, my NWS forecast:
Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Northwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.


NWS Forecast by zipcode
Quoting 24. capeflorida:

Florida waking up to these Saturday morning, Can't wait here in S Miami Dade County!




I won't be waking up at dawn, that's for sure.
Good morning everyone! Interesting cluster of storms moving through South Texas towards the Gulf! Loving the awesome cool weather in NW Florida, down into the 40's tonight and upper 30's for the weekend!

Quoting 29. 69Viking:

Good morning everyone! Interesting cluster of storms moving through South Texas towards the Gulf! Loving the awesome cool weather in NW Florida, down into the 40's tonight and upper 30's for the weekend!




It is just rain. Won't go off shore and develop into a Cat 5 storm....
Quoting vongfong2014:
Thank you for support! Have you named Albus yet?

no, the only named storms happen in the NWS Paducah forecasting area.
houston, we have engulfment.
Atlantic Goes Quiet and so dos the blog
Quoting 1. PalmBeachWeather:

Thank your Dr. Masters....I finally feel that us folks in south Florida can finally take a deep breath and relax....


Tampa, FL here... I wanna feel some of my north cold.
Quoting 34. MaxWeather:



Tampa, FL here... I wanna feel some of my north cold.



It's coming.
The season's over, so let's throw a HALLOWEEN PARTY!!!!!!
happy halloween!
Quoting MaxWeather:


Tampa, FL here... I wanna feel some of my north cold.

the temprature is dropping in my area, so it'll be there soon.
Quoting 30. bryanfromkyleTX:



It is just rain. Won't go off shore and develop into a Cat 5 storm....


I didn't say it would.
Quoting Envoirment:
The ACE for the East Pacific is at ~190 at the moment. I think this season has a good shot to be the 6th highest season in terms of ACE (current 6th highest is the 1984 season with 193 ACE). I think top 5 might be difficult to crack, unless we get another storm after Vance or Vance intensifies a bit more than forecast (current 5th highest is the 1993 season with 201 ACE)

This season will likely tie the record for amount of hurricanes with the 1990 and 1992 seasons (16) though.

One thing missing this season has been the long-lasting hurricanes we usually get in El Niño* years. The ACE would probably be higher if we saw those.

* no, this year is not officially an El Niño year, but it is behaving much like one.
Quoting hurricanes2018:


heavy snow at my house by the weekend
In New Haven, Connecticut? The NWS doesn't seem to think there will be any snow in New Haven.
Quoting 69Viking:
Good morning everyone! Interesting cluster of storms moving through South Texas towards the Gulf! Loving the awesome cool weather in NW Florida, down into the 40's tonight and upper 30's for the weekend!

I wish it was headed to Alabama. Unfortunately, it's going to be in the Gulf just in time for the cold, dry air to kill it.
RSO STATUS...
GOES-E RSO WILL BE IN PLACE FROM 31/1714Z-01/1644Z IN SUPPORT OF
MONITORING THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT ON THE EAST COAST.


Loop
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south of Acapulco,
Mexico.

A broad area of low pressure has formed about 1150 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some gradual
development of this system is possible before upper-level winds
become less favorable early next week. The low is expected to move
toward the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low..10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent



hmm the W storm?
82 degrees at the house here in Fort Myers. It won't be too long before cooler air starts working into the area.

Windy city living up to it's moniker today.....

Excerpt:


MICHIGAN CITY MARINE PLATFORM 67 MPH 1100 AM 10/31
CHICAGO HARRISON CRIB 58 MPH 1030 AM 10/31
GARY CHICAGO INTRNTL AIRPORT 49 MPH 1045 AM 10/31
1 NNE OTTAWA 49 MPH 1118 AM 10/31
CHICAGO MIDWAY AIRPORT 48 MPH 1050 AM 10/31
I feel the season is over "again".. I will now go into hibernation from WU until next year... I will miss most of you but will be glad to be away from some of what I call ".......
Anyone else having problems with the Wundermap. Googlemaps doesnt want to work with it, so I'm getting a blank screen when I try to look.
Quoting 32. 62901IL:

houston, we have engulfment.



Resistance is futile!


cold weather will be here soon
Quoting 40. sar2401:

In New Haven, Connecticut? The NWS doesn't seem to think there will be any snow in New Haven.
i am at boston right now waiting for the snow to come in a few days
Quoting tuckernpurrs:
Anyone else having problems with the Wundermap. Googlemaps doesnt want to work with it, so I'm getting a blank screen when I try to look.
It has never worked right for me. It doesn't work at all in Classic and sucks up all my 4 gigs of RAM on the new site until it quits and sometimes causes my computer to freeze up. I've never found it provided enough information to me for the grief it causes.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
i am at boston right now waiting for the snow to come in a few days
That's Boston Mass, right? NWS there says:

Temperatures through most of this storm should remain favorable
for all rain. As the winds shift from northeast to northwest
Saturday night...colder air will be drawn in which could change
the last showers over to snow across the higher terrain. Any
accumulations should not be much more than a trace...where it
snows at all.


The chances for any snow are minimal even if you are in higher terrain. The chances for heavy snow are zero.
Yet another Private Space Flight Incident.

Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo crashes near Mojave, Calif.; status of crew uncertain.

Weather is weekend is going to be wonderful. I expect a few record lows to be posted here in CFL
Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are posted for parts of the Appalachians and snow advisories are in effect in the Great Lakes as the season's first snow targets those areas from Halloween into the weekend.

As of Friday morning up to 8 inches of snow fell in Winchester, Wisconsin and near Three Lakes, Michigan. Wind gusts up to 60 mph have also been reported in parts of Michigan.
Saturday: Additional snow will fall over the Appalachians and parts of the piedmont from east Tennessee and western North Carolina (possibly Upstate South Carolina) north to at least West Virginia. Some wet snow may also linger in parts of eastern Lower Michigan, Ohio, western Pennsylvania, western New York. Snow may develop later in parts of northern New England.

- Sunday: Snow, possibly heavy, in parts of northern New England and gusty winds are expected as well.

Heavy snow and high winds into Monday and early Tuesday in parts of Atlantic Canada, from New Brunswick to Labrador.
Quoting 33. Tazmanian:

Atlantic Goes Quiet and so dos the blog
Is been quiet since early Oct.
Quoting 61. Grothar:


So now I can expect a high of 68 tomorrow and a low of 45 tomorrow night.

Now that means a super day to be out for the Stuart Air Show.
Big early season snow, even by northern Maine standards. Looks like north of Bangor (Allagash, Ft Kent, Houlton, Caribou, Madawaska) to get the lion's share. Winds and blowing snow most likely will shut down Rte 1 in places between Houlton and Caribou.

Sunday River Ski resort (western Maine) announcing plans to open Monday. If you wear your Halloween costume, you ski for free.

Link

Quoting 9. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 14z RTMA 2.5km 2-meter temperature map shows frigid air from Canada flowing into the United States as a 1039mb arctic high pushes a strong cold front southeastward. This front is expected to continue in that direction and will clear most of the remainder of the lower 48 tonight into tomorrow morning. By Sunday morning, the 6z GFS suggests temperatures will be 15-20F below average across a good chunk of the Southeast United States.




Concurrently, a very powerful shortwave trough (500mb height anomalies 5-6 standard deviations below average!) is expected to round the base of the main trough across the East United States and initiate the deepening of a 1007mb low off the North Carolina coastline. In addition, this trough is expected to deliver copious amount of snowfall to the higher elevations of NC/TN/VA (>8"?). Meanwhile, the low offshore the North Carolina coastline is forecast to track generally northward and should move ashore the southeastern tip of Maine by Sunday afternoon. While temperatures will likely be a little too warm and moisture a little too scarce for a snowstorm for a majority of the Northeast, the same cannot be said for Maine, where the GFS is outputting totals over a foot and a half (in higher elevations).





This arctic blast is only expected to be short-lived, and it should be countered by above-average temperatures next week, but based on a combination of factors (that I'll list in my winter blog tomorrow), this is just the start of what should be a cold and snowy winter for people east of the Rockies.
Quoting 61. Grothar:




We would be in for one serious freeze across all of Florida if we have a trough this amplified in the heart winter. Something we didn't see at all last year.
OT: Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo has exploded, one astronaut has lost their life, other seriously wounded.

Space exploration has suffered a serious disaster today.

"Oh, I have slipped the surly bonds of earth,
And danced the skies on laughter-silvered wings;
Sunward I've climbed and joined the tumbling mirth of sun-split clouds -
and done a hundred things You have not dreamed of -
wheeled and soared and swung high in the sunlit silence.
Hovering there I've chased the shouting wind along
and flung my eager craft through footless halls of air.

"Up, up the long delirious burning blue
I've topped the wind-swept heights with easy grace,
where never lark, or even eagle, flew;
and, while with silent, lifting mind I've trod
the high untrespassed sanctity of space,
put out my hand and touched the face of God."
This map is probably a little more accurate because it takes into account the warming close to the coast and near Lake O.

We could see as much as a 15 degree temperature difference between the barrier islands and inland locations.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
"New" GFS implementation scheduled for December 9th, 2014 (subject to change)


Nrt... do you have a link to the NCEP parallel runs? Thanks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
338 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MOTHER NATURE IS TRULY PROVIDING US WITH A
"TREAT" ON THIS HALLOWEEN...WITH A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY ONGOING
ACROSS THE CWA. BUT RATHER THAN BEING CAST FROM A WITCHES
SPELL...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUNSHINE
WHILE A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE IS ASSISTING WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL LAST FOR A SHORTER TIME
THAN ME GOING THROUGH A HAUNTED HOUSE HOWEVER...AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

THE "TRICK" TO THE FORECAST INVOLVES A RAPIDLY DEEPENING UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IMPULSE WILL DIG INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT...ALL WHILE DEEPENING TO A GHASTLY -4 TO -5
SD`S BELOW NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO 500MB HEIGHTS. THIS STRONG IMPULSE
WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW...AND WHILE MOST IMPACTS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL BE LURKING...WAITING
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE
BEFORE COMING TO LIFE. GUIDANCE IS ALL UNDER-FORECASTING THE DRY AIR
TONIGHT SO HAVE SLOWED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL CLOAK THE FIRST QUARTER MOON IN AN EERIE
VEIL. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OF
I-95...SO BE ALERT FOR THAT POTENTIAL AS WELL AS THE GHOSTS AND
GOBLINS SURE TO BE ROAMING ABOUT.

WINDS WILL EASE TO NEAR CALM AFTER DARK MAKING FOR EASY BROOMSTICK
NAVIGATION...BUT ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET AFTER DARK...SO THAT
SHIVER YOU FEEL MAY JUST BE FROM TEMPS IN THE 40S AND NOT A PASSING
SPIRIT. MINIMUMS MAY BE REACHED A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN HOWEVER AS
SW WINDS DEVELOP LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RISE FROM THE BOTTOM LIKE A ZOMBIE FROM THE GRAVE BEFORE SUNRISE
ON SATURDAY.
68....Love that discussion!
A broad area of low pressure has formed about 1150 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some gradual
development of this system is possible before upper-level winds
become less favorable early next week. The low is expected to move
toward the west-southwest at 5 to 10 mph over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low..10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
A ridge over the eastern
Pacific is expected to move eastward over the next few days,
steering the cyclone more steadily west-southwestward by late today,
westward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this weekend. Vance
is then forecast to turn northward and then northeastward ahead of a
trough moving over Baja California. While the models are in good
agreement on the overall track, there remains some spread in the
timing of the turn toward Mexico. The guidance is generally faster
than the last cycle, so the updated NHC forecast follows that trend.
Overall the forecast is also little east of the previous one, mostly
because of the initial motion and position.


Here's what's coming guys, currently in S C IL, 43 w/ a 25 dew pt, 30.24", N winds in 20s gusts in upper 30s for a 33 wind chill. Growing season ends as hard freeze comes in, sure the rut will be starting soon after, so car / deer crashes will be on the rise. Everyone have a good Halloween weekend!
Quoting 71. hurricanes2018:

A ridge over the eastern
Pacific is expected to move eastward over the next few days,
steering the cyclone more steadily west-southwestward by late today,
westward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this weekend. Vance
is then forecast to turn northward and then northeastward ahead of a
trough moving over Baja California. While the models are in good
agreement on the overall track, there remains some spread in the
timing of the turn toward Mexico. The guidance is generally faster
than the last cycle, so the updated NHC forecast follows that trend.
Overall the forecast is also little east of the previous one, mostly
because of the initial motion and position.






Quoting 48. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yikes.





whats that?
How Much Snow?

Background Snowfall Accumulation Forecast
Snowfall Accumulation Forecast
At right is our latest 48-hour snowfall forecast. Keep in mind additional snow may fall beyond the 48-hour window shown in the map. Here are the highlights of that forecast:

- Accumulating snow likely: U.P. and northern Lower Michigan, northern Wisconsin, Appalachians from West Virginia to east Tennessee, western North Carolina, and the mountains of northern New England. A few areas of the Appalachians may pick up 6 inches of snow, or locally more. Totals over 6 inches are possible in parts of Maine (northern or eastern).

- Some chance of accumulating snow: Parts of eastern Wisconsin, southern Lower Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, eastern Kentucky, western/northern Pennsylvania, western/central New York, piedmont of North Carolina, Upstate South Carolina,

- Some possible season's first flake cities: , , , , , , ,

Be prepared for hazardous winter driving conditions, particularly on bridges or overpasses, if you have plans to check out the this weekend.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters,
There is bitter cold air working its way south..How soon time will tell.

Seas to 14ft in the GOM later tonight and tomorrow. There's bound to be someone in a 26ft boat 20 miles offshore that doesn't carry a weather radio.
Quoting 78. Sfloridacat5:

Seas to 14ft in the GOM later tonight and tomorrow. There's bound to be someone in a 26ft boat 20 miles offshore that doesn't carry a weather radio.
I have seen that more than once..Many of them didnt make it..Some were heartwrenching to watch unfold.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
338 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MOTHER NATURE IS TRULY PROVIDING US WITH A
"TREAT" ON THIS HALLOWEEN...WITH A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY ONGOING
ACROSS THE CWA. BUT RATHER THAN BEING CAST FROM A WITCHES
SPELL...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUNSHINE
WHILE A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE IS ASSISTING WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL LAST FOR A SHORTER TIME
THAN ME GOING THROUGH A HAUNTED HOUSE HOWEVER...AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

THE "TRICK" TO THE FORECAST INVOLVES A RAPIDLY DEEPENING UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IMPULSE WILL DIG INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT...ALL WHILE DEEPENING TO A GHASTLY -4 TO -5
SD`S BELOW NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO 500MB HEIGHTS. THIS STRONG IMPULSE
WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW...AND WHILE MOST IMPACTS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL BE LURKING...WAITING
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE
BEFORE COMING TO LIFE. GUIDANCE IS ALL UNDER-FORECASTING THE DRY AIR
TONIGHT SO HAVE SLOWED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL CLOAK THE FIRST QUARTER MOON IN AN EERIE
VEIL. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OF
I-95...SO BE ALERT FOR THAT POTENTIAL AS WELL AS THE GHOSTS AND
GOBLINS SURE TO BE ROAMING ABOUT.

WINDS WILL EASE TO NEAR CALM AFTER DARK MAKING FOR EASY BROOMSTICK
NAVIGATION...BUT ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET AFTER DARK...SO THAT
SHIVER YOU FEEL MAY JUST BE FROM TEMPS IN THE 40S AND NOT A PASSING
SPIRIT. MINIMUMS MAY BE REACHED A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN HOWEVER AS
SW WINDS DEVELOP LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RISE FROM THE BOTTOM LIKE A ZOMBIE FROM THE GRAVE BEFORE SUNRISE
ON SATURDAY.

well, someone really likes halloween. How's the party going? sorry I'm latr.
Here is our " Manitoba Mauler "..

Quoting 67. WxLogic:



Nrt... do you have a link to the NCEP parallel runs? Thanks


Only the one that has been used for testing, under 2-D Maps and only for the 00Z run. There are also GRIB2 files, maybe Levi will put them up on his site.
Westcoast of Florida - Gulf of Mexico

GMZ853-873-312130-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT

SATURDAY
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
SEAS 12 TO 16 FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS ROUGH. ISOLATED
SPRINKLES IN THE MORNING.

SATURDAY NIGHT
NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND
20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS
ROUGH.

Quoting 68. TropicalAnalystwx13:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
338 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MOTHER NATURE IS TRULY PROVIDING US WITH A
"TREAT" ON THIS HALLOWEEN...WITH A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY ONGOING
ACROSS THE CWA. BUT RATHER THAN BEING CAST FROM A WITCHES
SPELL...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUNSHINE
WHILE A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE IS ASSISTING WITH THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THIS TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL LAST FOR A SHORTER TIME
THAN ME GOING THROUGH A HAUNTED HOUSE HOWEVER...AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT.

THE "TRICK" TO THE FORECAST INVOLVES A RAPIDLY DEEPENING UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IMPULSE WILL DIG INTO THE
CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT...ALL WHILE DEEPENING TO A GHASTLY -4 TO -5
SD`S BELOW NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO 500MB HEIGHTS. THIS STRONG IMPULSE
WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW...AND WHILE MOST IMPACTS WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WILL BE LURKING...WAITING
FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE INTO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE
BEFORE COMING TO LIFE. GUIDANCE IS ALL UNDER-FORECASTING THE DRY AIR
TONIGHT SO HAVE SLOWED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL CLOAK THE FIRST QUARTER MOON IN AN EERIE
VEIL. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OF
I-95...SO BE ALERT FOR THAT POTENTIAL AS WELL AS THE GHOSTS AND
GOBLINS SURE TO BE ROAMING ABOUT.

WINDS WILL EASE TO NEAR CALM AFTER DARK MAKING FOR EASY BROOMSTICK
NAVIGATION...BUT ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET AFTER DARK...SO THAT
SHIVER YOU FEEL MAY JUST BE FROM TEMPS IN THE 40S AND NOT A PASSING
SPIRIT. MINIMUMS MAY BE REACHED A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN HOWEVER AS
SW WINDS DEVELOP LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...ALLOWING TEMPS
TO RISE FROM THE BOTTOM LIKE A ZOMBIE FROM THE GRAVE BEFORE SUNRISE
ON SATURDAY.


As long as they stay away from downtown tonight were good.
Check out the forecast for the Smoky Mountains National Park region, 8 Miles SSE Gatlinburg TN.

Tonight Snow. Low around 23. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Saturday Snow. High near 24. Blustery, with a northwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Blustery, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
18Z GFS has backed off the low temperatures a little bit for my area Sunday morning.

They were down to something like 42-44 degrees. Now the same location is forecasted to be 46. So a slight adjustment.
Still a chance to break the record for my area Sunday morning.

Special weather statement in effect

Mother nature delivers some rather frightening weather for Halloween.

A slow-moving low pressure system over Southern Ontario will continue to track southeastwards this evening.

Rain has been falling much of the day across much of Southern Ontario. One exception has been regions northeast of Georgian Bay including Britt through Algonquin Park where a transition to wet snow has been occurring behind an Arctic cold front associated with the disturbance. This transition to snow will continue to migrate south tonight along and behind the cold front. The change over to snow will affect most areas south of Georgian Bay this evening reaching northern portions of the Greater Toronto area towards midnight.

Total snowfall amounts of 2 to 5 cm are likely south of Georgian Bay tonight, particularly over areas of higher elevation. It may even exceed 5 cm in some locales above the escarpment into the Dundalk Highlands. A few centimetres are also possible from areas near Kitchener to Caledon and eastward through York region. To the east of Georgian Bay, total amounts of near 10 cm will be possible by Saturday morning. However actual snowfall accumulation on the ground in some areas may be less due to melting on the still relatively warm ground.

The snow is expected to taper off early Saturday morning as the low system pulls away to the southeast.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
Quoting 9. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 14z RTMA 2.5km 2-meter temperature map shows frigid air from Canada flowing into the United States as a 1039mb arctic high pushes a strong cold front southeastward. This front is expected to continue in that direction and will clear most of the remainder of the lower 48 tonight into tomorrow morning. By Sunday morning, the 6z GFS suggests temperatures will be 15-20F below average across a good chunk of the Southeast United States.




Concurrently, a very powerful shortwave trough (500mb height anomalies 5-6 standard deviations below average!) is expected to round the base of the main trough across the East United States and initiate the deepening of a 1007mb low off the North Carolina coastline. In addition, this trough is expected to deliver copious amount of snowfall to the higher elevations of NC/TN/VA (>8"?). Meanwhile, the low offshore the North Carolina coastline is forecast to track generally northward and should move ashore the southeastern tip of Maine by Sunday afternoon. While temperatures will likely be a little too warm and moisture a little too scarce for a snowstorm for a majority of the Northeast, the same cannot be said for Maine, where the GFS is outputting totals over a foot and a half (in higher elevations).





This arctic blast is only expected to be short-lived, and it should be countered by above-average temperatures next week, but based on a combination of factors (that I'll list in my winter blog tomorrow), this is just the start of what should be a cold and snowy winter for people east of the Rockies.


and with it the beginning of the end of the 2014 atlantic hurricane season
At 508pm, it was 46 degrees in ZIP62901
Quoting 91. 62901IL:

At 508pm, it was 46 degrees in ZIP62901
43 with wind chill of 37 at my location in eastern burbs of Toronto Canada
just dropped to 42.8
expecting first flakes by midnight till after sunrise
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
338 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...MOTHER NATURE IS TRULY PROVIDING US WITH A
"TREAT" ON THIS HALLOWEEN...WITH A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY ONGOING
ACROSS THE CWA.
Nice to see a forecaster with a sense of humor and a boss not afraid to let him use it. :-)
Halloween is not popular in the Caribbean, but I want to say "Happy Halloween" to those who celebrate it.

In terms of the weather, it seems as if the approaching cold front will increase precipitation across the western Caribbean over the weekend.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


and with it the beginning of the end of the 2014 atlantic hurricane season
That brings up a good question. Has there ever been a November hurricane after a widespread freeze and snow event like this one?
98. OCF
Looks like the first actual rain of the season for Southern California coming tonight. (Won't get here till after the Trick or Treaters have gone home.) Frontal band is now over Monterrey and Santa Cruz. We'll see how well it holds together.

Rain is rare enough that we have to notice when it comes.
Don't forget to set your clocks back on Sat night, Daylight Saving Time ends on Sunday at 2am.
Quoting 97. sar2401:

That brings up a good question. Has there ever been a November hurricane after a widespread freeze and snow event like this one?


depends
how strong of a rtn flow from the south sets up after the cold high pressure moves out
and over atlantic so eastern half of NA gets under a more sw flow
if anything comes it will have to be from the gulf or nw carb tracking n ne ward
Quoting 100. Climate175:

Don't forget to set your clocks back on Sat night, Daylight Saving Time ends on Sunday at 2am.
ya I had time change now it will be dark by 5 pm on sunday
down to 40.8 with a chill 35.6 now I guess the sudden drop the last half hr is cause its getting dark now we lost the sun heat engine

from 43 to 40 in like 30 mins
.
Quoting 104. 62901IL:


where do you live
I am in Toronto north west shore of lake Ontario
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
18Z GFS has backed off the low temperatures a little bit for my area Sunday morning.

They were down to something like 42-44 degrees. Now the same location is forecasted to be 46. So a slight adjustment.
Still a chance to break the record for my area Sunday morning.

The low here last night was 41, four degrees cooler that forecast. The front is right at the northern Alabama state line and, surprisingly, we are starting to pick up a few CAA showers in the breezy, dry air before the front. The wind is jst starting to pick up, with some 12-15 mph gusts. It was a nice day, with a high of 75, but clouds have moved in now, and it's dropped 10 degrees in the last hour. The GFS had our Sunday morning low at 36 and now it's down to 32 after not getting much above 50 tomorrow. It's going to be an awfully cold start to November.
The latest GFS..

freeze
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


depends
how strong of a rtn flow from the south sets up after the cold high pressure moves out
and over atlantic so eastern half of NA gets under a more sw flow
if anything comes it will have to be from the gulf or nw carb tracking n ne ward
Water temperatures in the Gulf have have fallen remarkably quickly already, with some areas 10 degrees lower than they were in mid-September. The coming cold front should drop them even more quickly. Still warm enough to support a tropical cyclone but not the "rocket fuel" we had before, not that the higher temperatures seemed to matter much. We should get some return flow next week but it appears to be weak with not much potential for anything forming off the tail end of any fronts until at least the tenth. I think the Caribbean is out only hope, and their track record so far is less than stellar.

Forgot the picture...

18z gfs surface temps sat morning

Quoting sar2401:
The low here last night was 41, four degrees cooler that forecast. The front is right at the northern Alabama state line and, surprisingly, we are starting to pick up a few CAA showers in the breezy, dry air before the front. The wind is jst starting to pick up, with some 12-15 mph gusts. It was a nice day, with a high of 75, but clouds have moved in now, and it's dropped 10 degrees in the last hour. The GFS had our Sunday morning low at 36 and now it's down to 32 after not getting much above 50 tomorrow. It's going to be an awfully cold start to November.


Hi sar! Are there worries about crops/vegetation?

Approaching surface front, within the shortwave trough, may increase cloudiness by Sunday here in Jamaica. Maybe a few showers if temperature gradient is not weak, and if, enough moisture is available.
Quoting hydrus:
Here is our " Manitoba Mauler "..

I swear, with all the weather terms I've heard in my life, I've never heard "Manitoba Mauler" before. Is this a term that's been around that I somehow just blocked out of my head? :-)
Quoting 114. sar2401:

I swear, with all the weather terms I've heard in my life, I've never heard "Manitoba Mauler" before. Is this a term that's been around that I somehow just blocked out of my head? :-)


It's been an "official" term for a type of Alberta Clipper for a long time.
18z gfs surface temps sun morning
gfs 180 hrs a td in the cen. northern gulf. another trick by the model?
Monday morning lows with a rtn flow showing up nicely

Quoting nigel20:


Hi sar! Are there worries about crops/vegetation?

Approaching surface front, within the shortwave trough, may increase cloudiness by Sunday here in Jamaica. Maybe a few showers if temperature gradient is not weak, and if, enough moisture is available.
Cotton and peanuts, out two main crops, are in down here. Northern Alabama may lose part of their cotton crop if temperatures are really below 28 for six hours. Spring starts later up there, so harvest is about two weeks behind us. The cotton bolls, those puffy white balls on the top of the plants, are actually the fruit, and it can be damaged, especially with rapidly falling temperatures and dry windy conditions. The northern parts of the Gulf States are the only ones with crops that are still in harvest that could be hurt by a hard freeze. I think this is a strong enough front that it should give you at least a few showers and, although it's not going to be like here, or even Florida, should drop the temperatures a few degrees and make the humidity somewhat less. This is the kind of front we usually see around Christmas, not Halloween. :-)
correction
comments 119 116 112 are the 18z nam model not 18z gfs
Quoting sar2401:
Cotton and peanuts, out two main crops, are in down here. Northern Alabama may lose part of their cotton crop if temperatures are really below 28 for six hours. Spring starts later up there, so harvest is about two weeks behind us. The cotton bolls, those puffy white balls on the top of the plants, are actually the fruit, and it can be damaged, especially with rapidly falling temperatures and dry windy conditions. The northern parts of the Gulf States are the only ones with crops that are still in harvest that could be hurt by a hard freeze. I think this is a strong enough front that it should give you at least a few showers and, although it's not going to be like here, or even Florida, should drop the temperatures a few degrees and make the humidity somewhat less. This is the kind of front we usually see around Christmas, not Halloween. :-)


Yes, though, the frontal boundary may become stationary, and transition into a shear line or weaken.

I'm sure most will be happy with the cold weather, at least momentarily. :)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
OT: Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo has exploded, one astronaut has lost their life, other seriously wounded.

Space exploration has suffered a serious disaster today.
In addition to what is probably going to be the loss of two experienced pilots, the program itself is probably over. The dates for commercial flight were never realistic to begin with, and they have continued to slip. Customers had started demanding refunds for their $80,000 reservation fees, and I imagine there's just not enough money available to build a new ship, test it, and demonstrate that one can be a space tourist reasonably safely. I imagine Branson is going to wait a respectful period of time before he backs out of the business and gives everyone a refund. All space flight programs suffer some failures, but they don't depend on paying passengers as a business plan.
A mix of rain and snow is falling at my house in Metro Detroit. Detroit Metro Airport (DTW) is also recording a mix of rain and snow. The last time snow was recorded on Halloween at DTW was in 1993.
Quoting 102. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya I had time change now it will be dark by 5 pm on sunday
I am really looking forward to it. My body hates DST....
Quoting nigel20:


Yes, though, the frontal boundary may become stationary, and transition into a shear line or weaken.

I'm sure most will be happy with the cold weather, at least momentarily. :)
The front is currently just north of the Straits of the Yucatan and should get to at least the western tip of Cuba before stalling out. It may get as far as the Caymans and Belize if the low deepens as much as is forecast. There won't a lot of cold air left but at least it will drop the humidity for a day or two. This is the kind of thing that usually signals the beginning of the the dry period down there and the end of the hurricane risk. That's not always true, of course, but chance for a Caribbean storm aren't being helped any by these fonts digging so far south.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
351 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ON THE WAY AND WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION TO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
STRONG COLD NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHSHORE. WINDS WILL RELAX NEAR SUNRISE. LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD...DRY AIR WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 12.

LAZ034>037-039-040-047-048-050-071-072-MSZ068>071 -077-080>082-
010500-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FZ.A.0003.141102T0500Z-141102T1400Z/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
ST. TAMMANY-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-LIVINGSTON-
NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-
WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...
ST. FRANCISVILLE...JACKSON...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...MO NTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVILLE...C OVINGTON...
LACOMBE...PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...
DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...AMITE...KENTWOOD...HAMMOND...
PONCHATOULA...CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER.. .LIBERTY...
CROSBY...MCCOMB...TYLERTOWN...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...
WAVELAND...DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...BILOXI...PASC AGOULA...
OCEAN SPRINGS...MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
351 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 32
DEGREES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

* DURATION...WHERE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING...THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES COULD LAST AS LONG AS 2 TO 4 HOURS.

* IMPACTS...TENDER OUTDOOR VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED BY
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Quoting BahaHurican:
I am really looking forward to it. My body hates DST....
Mine too. I don't like it being dark at 1700, and it seems to take a week for my body clock to reset that what I'm seeing out the window does not indicate the "right" time. Just my own opinion, but we lived without these seasonal time changes up until World War I and we can do so again. It would greatly simplify keeping time globally.
none of the models are showing anything happening with the area but the SW Carb looks interesting tonight.
Link
Quoting 127. sar2401:

The front id currently just north of the Straits of the Yucatan and should get to at least the western tip of Cuba before stalling out. It may get as far as the Caymans and Belize if the low deepens as much as is forecast. There won't a lot of cold air left but at least it will drop the humidity for a day or two. This is the kind of thing that usually signals the beginning of the the dry period down there and the end of the hurricane risk. That's not always true, of course, but chance for a Caribbean storm aren't being helped any by these fonts digging so far south.
The last two fronts pretty much wiped out what otherwise may have been a potent storm by first dragging it across the Yucatan then stalling more or less over it. And that was October. I suppose it's still possible to get something out of the "deep south" SW Car, but it seems the front action is likely to continue for the next couple of weeks, at least.....
Going back on AndreBrooks, see you back on this handle in June. Bye Bye.
Quoting 132. HurricaneAndre:

Going back on AndreBrooks, see you back on this handle in June. Bye Bye.
Bye Andre....
Quoting BahaHurican:
Bye Andre....
I'm back under this handle and it seem we got winter early this year. :)
its starting to rain here to
Quoting hurricanes2018:
its starting to rain here to
Then turning into snow right.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all. I brought this comment over from the last blog:

Well, I think the last part is a bit snotty in tone, but the suggestion is actually pretty sensible, especially compared to some of the nonsense I've heard spouted in public this week, and definitely in comparison with allowing a potentially Ebola-carrying patient to sit in the emergency room until someone with the time and know-how to assess him / her gets around to seeing the patient.

The thing is, aside from SAR and others of his ilk [i. e. health care and emergency response workers] most of us are just talking off the tops of our heads. I think we need to respect and give some credence to those most qualified to speak about the effects of the disease, then apply the most effective and fair common-sense policies possible. [BTW, to sar and others who responded to my comment yesterday, I appreciate your sharing of ideas. I got to think about the nurse's situation from more than just my perspective, which I found quite helpful.]

I caught a snippet of some of the nurse's comments to reporters this afternoon. The most common-sense suggestion came from her, IMO. If you want to keep Ebola from spreading to the US [or anywhere else in the world] eradicate it in the three poor nations where it currently exists.

OKay... now I'll try to stay on topic for all the other posts I make tonight... lol ...
Once more from me and I promise I'll drop it as well. Indeed, the best way to stop Ebola is to improve health care in the areas where it's endemic. It took having Ebola in the US before we started making a major commitment of manpower and money to be used in West Africa. Every person that survives develops antibodies that will contribute to finding a vaccine, which is really the answer to Ebola. The judge pretty much used CDC guidelines for isolation, including face to face checks each day by the health department, staying away from where people congregate, and coordinating travel plans with the state health department. Since she's not symptomatic, this kind of limited isolation is sufficient. If she becomes symptomatic, that's when she needs to be quarantined.
Quoting sar2401:
The front id currently just north of the Straits of the Yucatan and should get to at least the western tip of Cuba before stalling out. It may get as far as the Caymans and Belize if the low deepens as much as is forecast. There won't a lot of cold air left but at least it will drop the humidity for a day or two. This is the kind of thing that usually signals the beginning of the the dry period down there and the end of the hurricane risk. That's not always true, of course, but chance for a Caribbean storm aren't being helped any by these fonts digging so far south.


True. The primary dry season, runs from December to April. In terms of the front, GFS simulated IR satellite, suggests that it will be over Jamaica by 12z Sunday (7 in the morning). So you may be right.
When something this deadly has even a remote chance of getting inside the U.S., every measure should be taken to keep it out. This nonsense about not wanting to be quarantined is pure stupidity.
Quoting sar2401:
Mine too. I don't like it being dark at 1700, and it seems to take a week for my body clock to reset that what I'm seeing out the window does not indicate the "right" time. Just my own opinion, but we lived without these seasonal time changes up until World War I and we can do so again. It would greatly simplify keeping time globally.


DST was tried here, under British colonial rule, and in the period running from the 70s to early 80s. But being in the tropics, the benefit is minor to non-existent.
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
none of the models are showing anything happening with the area but the SW Carb looks interesting tonight.
Link
It has pretty much looked that way since June, with more or less constant convection off Panama and in the Gulf of Honduras. Many tropical waves have passed though, and many ULL's and elongated troughs have developed. With all this, the most exciting thing that took place was the area of disturbed weather that ultimately became Dolly in the BOC. The strong upper level winds are ripping the convection in the northern Caribbean to shreds and sending the remnants on a quick trip east. A lot of the convection in the SW Caribbean this years has crossed basins and helped to develop storms in the Pacific. Even the short lived Hanna developed in the Pacific and the remnant low ended up in the Caribbean, only to wander from place to place until it too died while headed west. Whatever is needed to kick off storms in the Caribbean just hasn't been there this year, and It doesn't look like it's going to be there before the season ends.
Quoting nigel20:


True. The primary dry season, runs from December to April. In terms of the front, GFS simulated IR satellite, suggests that it will be over Jamaica by 12z Sunday (7 in the morning). So you may be right.
If I am, I wish I wasn't, since tropical storms are our main source of rainfall until we start getting the continental storms in December. Unfortunately, we are now getting continental storms in terms of temperature and thickness while they have almost no rainfall associated with the systems. It used to be relatively rare to get such cold air penetrating this far south without enough instability to at least get some thunderstorms, if not organized severe weather, since this is the start of our secondary severe weather season. Alas, nothing seems to be working right for the last couple of years, so I just have to keep dragging my hoses around the yard while adding the task of taking all the tender plants inside and then back outside again. I'm really starting to hate this. :-)
Quoting BahaHurican:
The last two fronts pretty much wiped out what otherwise may have been a potent storm by first dragging it across the Yucatan then stalling more or less over it. And that was October. I suppose it's still possible to get something out of the "deep south" SW Car, but it seems the front action is likely to continue for the next couple of weeks, at least.....
Yeah, I'm thinking the tenth is when things might warm up and we might see shear relax and dry air get a little less dry. The Gulf and northern Caribbean need to get some nice CAPE going without all the shear and dry air interfering. As you know, what looks like permanently poor TS formation potential in these smaller basins can and does change quickly. I'm not ready to write the season off today but, if nothing has happened by the 20th, I won't be taking any big money bets on when we get to the next alphabet letter storm. :-)

Quoting 139. hydrus:

When something this deadly has even a remote chance of getting inside the U.S., every measure should be taken to keep it out. This nonsense about not wanting to be quarantined is pure stupidity.
Quarantine is racist though...
For West Palm Beach...Gotta love it!

148. txjac
Houston has had awesome weather the last couple of weeks ...couldn't be more beautiful
Going to continue to be like this until Tue-Wed next week
Happy Halloween all!



Happy Halloween
Quoting 147. hurricanes2018:




Fall is in full swing!
Media advisory by the met service of Jamaica.

NEWS RELEASE

October 31, 2014 at 5:00 p.m

***INCREASE RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ***

A Surface Trough over the central Caribbean along with a Cold Front are expected to influence weather conditions over Jamaica.

Today Radar reports indicate moderate to heavy showers across sections of most northern parishes.

Projections are for moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms to continue especially over northern parishes on Saturday and Sunday.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.

nch
Quoting 145. FLWeatherFreak91:


Quarantine is racist though...
Not if it is done properly.
It's okay to champion individual rights when distributing/owning assault weapons, guns (on a mass scale) but not okay when dealing with a communicable disease that can kill people (on any scale).
p.s. Over 12,000 Americans, adults and children, died from gun violence in 2013.
In 2013 the US lost average of 30 people to gun violence per day.

Just sayin'
East Central Florida
Elev 28 ft 29.06 N, 80.95 W | Updated 7 sec ago
63.1 F Feels Like 63.1 F
It was 83.1 at 3 p.m. this afternoon.
okay...night all.
going to sleep by an open window :-)
Quoting 158. Chicklit:

East Central Florida
Elev 28 ft 29.06 °N, 80.95 °W | Updated 7 sec ago
63.1 °F Feels Like 63.1 °F
It was 83.1 at 3 p.m. this afternoon.








N

0.0

Wind Variable
Gusts 0.
may have too break out a light jacket by morning for ya
wish it was 63 here but it may be a few months or so before we see 63 again

right now 34.9 air temp wind chill 29.9
Quoting 161. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

wish it was 63 here but it may be a few months or so before we see 63 again

right now 34.9 air temp wind chill 29.9

arg...but you can go ice skating once the hard freeze sets in!
our light misty rain should start changing over to wet snow soon raw wind out of the ne
had to fire up stage 2 on the boilers today now have 4 out of 6 boilers running keeping everyone warm
Quoting 162. Chicklit:


arg...but you can go ice skating once the hard freeze sets in!


76F here and falling .... couple days of "Keys" winter in store ...
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:07 PM EDT Friday 31 October 2014




Condition:Light Rain and Snow
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:8 miles
Temperature:35.4°F
Dewpoint:33.3°F
Humidity:92%
Wind:N 17 mph
168. yoboi
Quoting 167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:07 PM EDT Friday 31 October 2014




Condition:Light Rain and Snow
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:8 miles
Temperature:35.4°F
Dewpoint:33.3°F
Humidity:92%
Wind:N 17 mph



sounds like a raw cold.....keep warm Keeper.....
Quoting 168. yoboi:




sounds like a raw cold.....keep warm Keeper.....
I keep the building nice and warm temps inside running near 74
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 8:07 PM PDT on October 31, 2014
Overcast
63.1 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 72%
Dew Point: 54 °F
Wind: 7.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 13.0 mph
Pressure: 29.82 in (Falling)
Rain chance up to 90% for A.M. Saturday!!!!
Quoting 170. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 8:07 PM PDT on October 31, 2014
Overcast
63.1 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 72%
Dew Point: 54 °F
Wind: 7.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 13.0 mph
Pressure: 29.82 in (Falling)
Rain chance up to 90% for A.M. Saturday!!!!



Raining pretty good at my Brothers house.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Pineapple Express away!!!
Quoting 173. PedleyCA:


Raining pretty good at my Brothers house.
Congratulations on your weather event Ped! I hope you get some!
I'd like to bring this forward as well. Some responses to discussion in previous blog.
Quoting 306. schwankmoe:



She didn't have a fever when she returned to NJ. She was completely healthy. The authorities kept her locked up for hours, taking her temperature until she was so pissed off and flush that an inaccurate forehead-swipe thermometer registered a high temperature. She demanded (being a nurse) that they use a real thermometer, which they did, which then read normal.

They threw her in isolation anyway. The authorities basically kept at it until they could come up with something to isolate her over, even though it clearly had no medical reasoning whatsoever behind it.

As to state/federal authority, the Feds are supposed to have the authority here, especially in the case where people are coming from overseas. The big issue is while HHS provided guidelines and regulations of their own, they didn't go out of their way to state how returning health care workers are *not* to be treated, opening the door for states to invent their own fear-and-ignorance based quarantine policies.
She says she didn't. The person who took her temp at the airport said she did, according to initial newspaper reports.
Quoting 330. Neapolitan:



Yeah, when it comes to epidemiology--and climate, and weather--too many people stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night. ;-)
Yeah, really. There's a whole bunch of people talking out of school. I worked as a Public Health professional for 10 years or so, Neo. I know what I'm talking about. Another thing. CDC makes recommendations. Feds don't make public health policy. States do. CDC botched Dallas. They changed recommendations for the protective equipment and reissued their recommendations. Did anyone besides me watch the Congressional subcomittee hearing? I cannot imagine a health professional refusing quarantine. As I've said already, this is a form of denial is common to health professionals - "Oh, I can't catch it..." Public Health powers exist. They always have. They're kind of like emminent domain.
Quoting 288. Naga5000:



It must be a sad existence to live every day in fear and so be misguided about society.
No fear mongering on my part. Believe it. This country is lucky no more cases came out of Dallas than did.
Quoting 264. trunkmonkey:



This nurse works for the CDC, and this whole deal with her stinks with politics!
She was in West Africa working for Doctors Without Borders, same outfit the NYC doc who got Ebola after going bowling. Do you have some evidence she also works for CDC?

A couple additional points.
~The health care workers who've recently been brought home with Ebola and the two nurses in Dallas (one of them on the transfusion) have received experimental drugs and transfusions from Ebola survivors.
~The United Nations World Health Organization (WHO) recently reported the incidence in West Africa (perhaps Liberia alone. I can't recall off the top of my head.) could escalate to 10,000 new cases per week by January. This recent outbreak started with one case in March 2014.
~Ending the epidemic in West Africa. That's a no brainer. And yeah, and until the next outbreak. The previous, 1976 in Congo (and elsewhere) was not anywhere near as extensive as this outbreak has become in seven months.

Actually, there was good news from WHO this week. Number of new cases in Liberia dropped. Go figure.

Happy Hallowe'en.
Quoting 173. PedleyCA:


Raining pretty good at my Brothers house.


Can smell it coming out here east of Fallon. We are supposed to get up to a quarter inch.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Man, and I thought it was cold here. 48 degrees with a dewpoint of 32 and winds blowing from 15-19 mph. No nasty rain mixed with snow, just clear skies, so that makes is a lot nicer than what you have now. I really will have to dig out that parka. I walked Radar Dog at 9:00 in just my normal light jacket. Let's just say he got less of a walk than usual tonight. :-)
I've already had off and on flurries over here in Sparta over the past few hours. Judging by the radar it looks like there is WAAAY more to come this way, so I'm hoping for at least a little bit of accumulation (fingers crossed!).
Quoting nigel20:
Media advisory by the met service of Jamaica.

NEWS RELEASE

October 31, 2014 at 5:00 p.m

***INCREASE RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ***

A Surface Trough over the central Caribbean along with a Cold Front are expected to influence weather conditions over Jamaica.

Today Radar reports indicate moderate to heavy showers across sections of most northern parishes.

Projections are for moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms to continue especially over northern parishes on Saturday and Sunday.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.

nch
I really thought that front would do more than the Jamaican Met Service was forecasting. It's a few standard deviations away from climatology for the first day of November so they probably were undercutting the temperature and rainfall guidance. Can't say as I blame them since it's pretty bad here, worse than I though it would be. No rain, but the wind is really blowing with low humidity, so we have brush fires breaking out all over. I hope you get some decent rains without too many other problems.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS IN E-CNTRL
CA ABOVE 6500 FT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 010440Z - 010945Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS WITH RATES LOCALLY REACHING 2 INCHES/HOUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ELEVATIONS PRIMARILY ABOVE 6500 FEET.

DISCUSSION...LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A RECENTLY DEVELOPED BURST OF
CONVECTION INVOF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY S OF FRESNO -- ON THE
PERIPHERY OF AN INCOMING BAND OF STRONG...DEEP ASCENT PRECEDING AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. RELATED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FURTHER ENCOURAGED
BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLYS FOLLOWING UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES ON THE
WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA. TROPOSPHERIC COOLING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO ADIABATIC FORCING IN THE
DCVA/UPSLOPE-FLOW REGIME AND NOCTURNAL DIABATIC SFC-LAYER COOLING.
AS THE THERMAL PROFILE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TENDS TOWARD MID-LEVEL
CONDITIONS OBSERVED BY THE UPSTREAM 00Z OAK RAOB /INDICATING A
WET-BULB-ZERO HEIGHT AROUND 6825 FT/...HEAVY SNOW WILL BE LIKELY FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6500 FT. SNOWFALL RATES MAY LOCALLY REACH 2
INCHES/HOUR...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE 06Z-10Z.

..COHEN.. 11/01/2014
Quoting PedleyCA:

Raining pretty good at my Brothers house.
I'm sure the ski areas will be thrilled if they can open by Thanksgiving. Looks like they are getting a little start up there now.
The cold is blowing in now, it has a winter-like smell to it!

Its refreshing, I'm ready for the chilly weekend! The event has been evolving quite well in regards to guidance.
Raining at my house! It has been a while since the last time. Calling for 1/2"-3/4" at my location. Bring it on!

AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
915 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAINS SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS MIDDAY SATURDAY. A SECOND
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DRY AND WARMER NEXT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 9 PM...THE COLD FRONT ROUNDING PT CONCEPTION WAS BRINGING RAIN
FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN CHANNEL ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SAN DIEGO AND ORANGE COUNTY.

A STRONG 500 MB VORT MAX WAS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT
WAS MORE OR LESS IN PHASE WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE STRONGEST
PVA...JET DYNAMICS AND DEEPEST MOISTURE PASS OVER LOS ANGELES AND
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED THERE
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE STRONG OROGRAPHICS. THERE
WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATELY STRONG CONVECTIVE RAINS OVER
ORANGE...RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THE LOCAL WRF FCSTS A NARROW BAND OF 200-400
J/KG OF CAPE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY ESE ACROSS SOCAL
BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM. THIS IS WHEN CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES ARE MOST LIKELY.

THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED RAPIDLY TODAY FROM 3200 FEET TO 6200
FEET...AND WILL DEEPEN TO 10000 FEET BY 12Z SATURDAY. RADAR ECHOES
OVER SOCAL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. PRECIP PROJECTIONS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH A
HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH IN THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. MOST OF THE
HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.

SNOW LEVELS ARE QUITE HIGH THIS EVENING. 9 PM TEMPS WERE THE LOW TO
MID 40S AT 8000 FEET...SO PRE-FRONTAL MTN PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY
RAIN. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER THE SNOW WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 6500-7000 FEET SATURDAY
MORNING. BUT BY THEN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL HAVE
PASSED TO THE EAST AND THAT WILL LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOW AND NEARLY STALL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL KEEP
THE THREAT FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS GOING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MOST OF SUNDAY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AS A SECOND STRONG VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS SO-CAL. SAN DIEGO COUNTY
LOOKS TO BE IN THE BEST POSITION FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS SECOND WAVE.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SATURATED AND THE WNW WIND FLOW ALIGNS
FAVORABLY FOR ISLAND BANDING SHOWERS TO FORM ON THE LEE SIDE OF
CATALINA AND SAN CLEMENTE ISLANDS. SOME OF THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ON MONDAY THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST FOR DRY...WARMER WEATHER ALL OF NEXT
WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOWER HUMIDITIES WILL ADD TO THE
WARMING/DRYING TREND.


Some snow falling in the Sierra Nevada mountains.......they need it bad!
There seems to be a visible spin on the satellite imagery with the Blob near 58W, 16N,... the islands of Dominica and Guadeloupe seem to be in for some rainy weather a little later on Saturday.
This little system could also turn out to be rather potent disturbance or an organizing low pressure system. Vigilance of these systems is always required.
As it stands Its already inclement in Dominica with mostly moderate showers falling along the east coast while its been raining for most of the evening in the Mountainous interior of the island.

May God Bless us All!
Quoting 186. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Some snow falling in the Sierra Nevada mountains.......they need it bad!
Yrs indeed..We have snow here...It really is to early for this crap..:)

Quoting 180. Huracan94:

I've already had off and on flurries over here in Sparta over the past few hours. Judging by the radar it looks like there is WAAAY more to come this way, so I'm hoping for at least a little bit of accumulation (fingers crossed!).
Theres more on radar.....Sparta will have a spectacular view of the 2017 total solar eclipse..I hope the weather is WAAYYY good.

Good morning.

High Temps forecast for today:




Currently at my house:

Clear Clear
64°F
Feels Like: 64°
Wind Chill: 64° Ceiling: Unl
Heat Index: 64° Visibility: 10 mi
Dew Point: 54° Wind: 0 mph
Humidity: 70% Direction: NA
Pressure: 29.94" Gusts: NA
Quoting 191. capeflorida:





Good Morning.
Looking at those images you can see that our dry season is almost here, (Trinidad, 11n 61w) but too early for comfort.
Going to have to start reducing our water use from now.
November/December are usually very rainy, but the way things have been this year I'm not taking any chances.
Nothing like waking up to a hailstorm/grapuelstorm (not sure which one because I'm too lazy to get out of bed and go outside. There's been plenty of lightning too.



here come the storm!!
Quoting 192. pottery:


Good Morning.
Looking at those images you can see that our dry season is almost here, (Trinidad, 11n 61w) but too early for comfort.
Going to have to start reducing our water use from now.
November/December are usually very rainy, but the way things have been this year I'm not taking any chances.


Morning Pot. You are right about your water situation, I seem to recall you once saying you had a cistern[or maybe it was a sister,lol]. Way to much halloween partying last night!
Outer Banks - this is just a moderate Nor'easter, but will probably equal the impact of Arthur for the OBX. I'm not agreeing with the 7-10 foot near shore surf height. Based on what I'm seeing there will be 12- 15 foot faces at the most exposed breaks, which is quite common for winter storms on the east coast.

High Surf Advisory, Coastal Flood Advisory

Statement as of 3:13 AM EDT on November 01, 2014



...Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 8 PM EDT this evening to 5 PM EST Sunday... ...High surf advisory in effect from 11 PM EDT this evening to 10 am EST Monday...

The National Weather Service in Newport/Morehead City has issued a high surf advisory...which is in effect from 11 PM EDT this evening to 10 am EST Monday.

* Location...sound side Outer Banks south of Oregon Inlet and ocean side north of Cape Hatteras.

* Coastal flooding...water levels 2 to 3 feet above normal.

* Surf height...7 to 10 feet through Sunday night.

* Timing...the threat of coastal flooding will exist tonight and Sunday.

* Impacts...minor flooding of areas adjacent to Pamlico Sound... and ocean side north of Cape Hatteras.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides will combine to generate minor flooding of low areas along the shore.

A high surf advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area...producing strong shore break...dangerous rip currents...strong longshore currents and localized beach erosion.










Wind Advisory

Statement as of 3:17 AM EDT on November 01, 2014



...Wind Advisory remains in effect from 11 PM EDT this evening to 10 am EST Sunday...

* winds...northwest 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Timing...tonight into Sunday morning.

* Impacts...strong winds will blow around loose objects.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph or gusts in excess of 45 mph are expected. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
Good morning and afternoon, all. It's a chilly 36 degrees this morning, though it should warm up to upper 50s later. I hope everyone had a great Halloween. Living where I live means no trick or treaters, which I do miss. But it is easier on the pocketbook.

A warm breakfast today...
Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Everyone on here that doubted me about this event ie (Nea) and countless others on here well your crow is being served this morning.

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 am EDT this
morning...


The National Weather Service in Columbia has issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for a mixture of rain and snow... which is in effect until
11 am EDT this morning.


* Locations... most of the central and western midlands... along
with the central Savannah River area.


* Hazard types... a mixture of rain and snow... with light
accumulations possible on grassy and elevated surfaces.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of less than an inch.
* Timing... rain mixed with snow showers through 11 am EDT this morning.

* Impacts... the combination of wet snow and increasing winds could
produce isolated tree and power line damage. Road surfaces may
see light accumulation.


* Winds... west 10 to 20 mph.

* Temperatures... from the middle 30s to around 40.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow or sleet will
cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and
limited visibilities... and use caution while driving.
Looks like our Manitoba Mauler is now centered somewhere around the NC/SC border near Greenville, SC. Looks like it is snowing in the NC mountains.

Strong imbedded storms south and east of center rotating northward. Just got clipped by a couple of squalls (about 150 miles SE of Greenville). I assume late morning it will begin to transfer energy to the potent Low off the coast.

It's 50F here and headed down for the rest of the day. Will be interesting to see if this event exceeds forecasts, which I believe it has the potential to do, especially in terms of winds. It's amazing to watch these storms bomb out. I'm interested to see the top wind gusts OBX northward.
i think i agree with largo these abrupt temp. changes can cause you to be sick. the little germs are smarter than you think. they are really busy right now. its a psycho thing. science is wrong. going to wash my hands just in case. brrr.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Everyone on here that doubted me about this event ie (Nea) and countless others on here well your crow is being served this morning.

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 am EDT this
morning...


The National Weather Service in Columbia has issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for a mixture of rain and snow... which is in effect until
11 am EDT this morning.


* Locations... most of the central and western midlands... along
with the central Savannah River area.


* Hazard types... a mixture of rain and snow... with light
accumulations possible on grassy and elevated surfaces.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of less than an inch.
* Timing... rain mixed with snow showers through 11 am EDT this morning.

* Impacts... the combination of wet snow and increasing winds could
produce isolated tree and power line damage. Road surfaces may
see light accumulation.


* Winds... west 10 to 20 mph.

* Temperatures... from the middle 30s to around 40.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow or sleet will
cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and
limited visibilities... and use caution while driving.


Rain in Columbia, but it turns to light snow about 20 miles N.W. of the city.
Little to no accumulation expected in that area due to temperatures above freezing and warm ground temperatures. But it is currently snowing pretty close to Columbia with temps in the mid 30s.
Quoting 201. Sfloridacat5:


Rain in Columbia, but it turns to light snow about 20 miles N.W. of the city.
Little to no accumulation expected in that area due to temperatures above freezing and warm ground temperatures. But it is currently snowing pretty close to Columbia with temps in the mid 30s.


I said there would be snow in Columbia well here it is right on que.
You know Scott I saw this on the radar this morning, but I didn't think it was actually snowing...lol. Columbia is 70 miles west of me (I work there somewhat regularly). It's 50F here, but I guess that cold air dove down to the west of me with the Manitoba Mauler. It's looking like an interesting day.

blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 198. StormTrackerScott:

Everyone on here that doubted me about this event ie (Nea) and countless others on here well your crow is being served this morning.

... Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 am EDT this
morning...


The National Weather Service in Columbia has issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for a mixture of rain and snow... which is in effect until
11 am EDT this morning.


* Locations... most of the central and western midlands... along
with the central Savannah River area.


* Hazard types... a mixture of rain and snow... with light
accumulations possible on grassy and elevated surfaces.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of less than an inch.
* Timing... rain mixed with snow showers through 11 am EDT this morning.

* Impacts... the combination of wet snow and increasing winds could
produce isolated tree and power line damage. Road surfaces may
see light accumulation.


* Winds... west 10 to 20 mph.

* Temperatures... from the middle 30s to around 40.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow or sleet will
cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and
limited visibilities... and use caution while driving.
204. JRRP
nice

Northeast |
- Becoming increasingly unsettled for the region this weekend as a coastal storm begins to take shape.
- Rain and snow showers move into the region today.
- Wet snow mixed with rain showers can be expected in northwest Pennsylvania, southwest New York and the Adirondack Mountains today and tonight.
- High temperatures this weekend should be mostly in the 30s and 40s with some 50s in Virginia.
- Low pressure deepens off the Northeast coast late today and will increase rain, wind and snow for New England by Sunday.
- Still uncertainty of the exact track of the low, but heavy snow is most likely across interior northern and eastern Maine with mainly rain in southeast New England and along the Maine coast.
- Strong wind gusts for southeastern New England by late Sunday may cause power outages, downed trees and coastal flooding.
Wind Advisory
Statement as of 3:49 AM EDT on November 01, 2014
...Wind Advisory in effect from 2 PM EDT this afternoon to 5 PM EST Sunday...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Wind Advisory...which is in effect from 2 PM EDT this afternoon to 5 PM EST Sunday.

* Locations...Suffolk County NY and coastal New Haven...Middlesex and New London counties in Connecticut.

* Hazards...strong winds.

* Winds...north 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Timing...this afternoon through the day Sunday.

* Impacts...some tree limbs and branches might fall onto power lines causing scattered power outages. Strong winds will make driving difficult on elevated roads and bridges.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds of 31 to 39 mph... or gusts of 46 to 57 mph...are expected or occurring. Winds this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.
I woke up this morning,went outside and it is calm with only a few low clouds. Hard to believe we have a coastal low getting ready to unleash here on the N.C. coast! We shall see.
This is from one of my friends in Columbia, SC, who is currently receiving moderate-heavy snow underneath the deformation band with this upper level low, they're certainly glad I mentioned the potential to snow, because most local meteorologists left it out of the forecast (& rightfully so). However, this is exactly what I was talking about a few days ago, wherever the precipitation is coming down fast & furious, it can overcome the above freezing layer in the lowest several thousand feet in the atmosphere & come down as moderate-heavy snow. It's essentially a feast of famine scenario, if you see snow the odds of accumulation skyrocket astronomically....


According to Reid Wood from Lexington, just west of Columbia, they have received 3.5 inches of snow already and counting.

Columbia's earliest snowfall on record according to Link
was November 9, 1913.

These crazy amounts of snow are very realistic given the intense deformation band that has virtually parked right over & to the west of Columbia, SC...



This is most certainly a record breaking event for them...
Quoting 208. Webberweather53:
This is from one of my friends in Columbia, SC, who is currently receiving moderate-heavy snow underneath the deformation band with this upper level low, they're certainly glad I mentioned the potential to snow, because most local meteorologists left it out of the forecast (& rightfully so). However, this is exactly what I was talking about a few days ago, wherever the precipitation is coming down fast & furious, it can overcome the above freezing layer in the lowest several thousand feet in the atmosphere & come down as moderate-heavy snow. It's essentially a feast of famine scenario, if you see snow the odds of accumulation skyrocket astronomically....


According to Reid Wood from Lexington, just west of Columbia, they have received 3.5 inches of snow already and counting.

Columbia's earliest snowfall on record according to Link
was November 9, 1913.

These crazy amounts of snow are very realistic given the intense deformation band that has virtually parked right over & to the west of Columbia, SC...



This is most certainly a record breaking event for them...


The models have been pegging Columbia as the bulls eye all week and no one believed it. Record breaking event occurring in South Carolina this morning.
Good morning all!

There's nothing quite as peaceful as a nice, gentle snow shower to wake up to.
Quoting 204. JRRP:

nice




Very good to see that but we don't need excessive rains like what occurred on October 31rst in San Juan.





Translating to English the information
Really unbelievable. Just 60-70 miles west of me. No one thought they were waking up to this I'm sure.

Quoting 208. Webberweather53:

This is from one of my friends in Columbia, SC, who is currently receiving moderate-heavy snow underneath the deformation band with this upper level low, they're certainly glad I mentioned the potential to snow, because most local meteorologists left it out of the forecast (& rightfully so). However, this is exactly what I was talking about a few days ago, wherever the precipitation is coming down fast & furious, it can overcome the above freezing layer in the lowest several thousand feet in the atmosphere & come down as moderate-heavy snow. It's essentially a feast of famine scenario, if you see snow the odds of accumulation skyrocket astronomically....


According to Reid Wood from Lexington, just west of Columbia, they have received 3.5 inches of snow already and counting.

Columbia's earliest snowfall on record according to Link
was November 9, 1913.

These crazy amounts of snow are very realistic given the intense deformation band that has virtually parked right over & to the west of Columbia, SC...



This is most certainly a record breaking event for them...
Make that 4.5 inches and counting in Lexington, SC. This friend has just informed me is losing power thanks to this heavy, wet snow...

Radar now showing heavy band of snow that was over Lexington may be moving over toward Aiken area. My temp in Florence has dropped from 50 to 44 in last couple of hours.


Quoting 213. Webberweather53:

Make that 4.5 inches and counting in Lexington, SC. This friend has just informed me is losing power thanks to this heavy, wet snow...


215. txjac
No snow for me but it's a crisp 45F at the moment
216. JRRP
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Very good to see that but we don't need excessive rains like what occurred on October 31rst in San Juan.





Translating to English the information

oh.. aqui en Santo Domingo no ha caido mucha lluvia
y las presas estan bien secas
Taken by a friend on the south side of Asheville (near the airport) a short while ago:



invest 94E is here
i like the snow picture from Neapolitan
Quoting 204. JRRP:

nice




xD
Taken by a friend on the south side of Asheville (near the airport) a short while ago:


whie the snow looks nice....i enjoyed seeing the rain in san francisco as i watched the ginats world series parade....an early start this year for the bay area
cloudy here no rain or snow yet!
Quoting 214. HaoleboySurfEC:

Radar now showing heavy band of snow that was over Lexington may be moving over toward Aiken area. My temp in Florence has dropped from 50 to 44 in last couple of hours.





Yeah the deformation zone is starting to shift a little to the east & south of late. Wonder if anything is reaching the ground as snow in the heavy batch precip developing northeast of Columbia, starting to run out of time this morning however...


Another pic from the interstates surrounding Columbia, SC
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NURI (1420)
21:00 PM JST November 1 2014
==============================
Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Nuri (975 hPa) located at 14.0N 133.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Storm Force Winds
===============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T4.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS: 16.6N 132.1E - 70 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 18.9N 133.1E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 21.3N 135.1E - 75 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Sea South Of Japan
massive waves on lake michigan yesterday


Happy Birthday National Weather Service

from the Key West NWS Discussion (it will be cold for us tonight - relatively speaking - stay warm!)

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1870...THE FIRST SYSTEMATIC
AND SYNCHRONIZED OBSERVATIONS WERE TAKEN BY 24 OFFICES NATIONWIDE IN
A NEW DIVISION OF THE SIGNAL CORE...LATER TO BECOME THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. ONE OF THESE FIRST 24 OFFICES WAS THE KEY WEST
STATION LOCATED AT THE RUSSELL HOUSE ON THE WEST SIDE OF DUVAL
STREET BETWEEN GREEN AND FRONT STREETS.
Quoting 222. hurricanes2018:

cloudy here no rain or snow yet!
Where are you located?
It is going to be interesting to see where the coastal Low forms. Right now it looks like this thing is sliding southeastward through SC and almost looks like a warm core system on radar. To me it looks like a coastal Low forms further south than forecasted. Originally it was forecasted to form roughly off shore of NC/SC border and travel NE. Now it looks like it is going to be closer to the SC/GA border.

I'm in Florence and the rain is really filling in on radar. We were expecting pretty conservative rainfall totals, but it looks like we may get more significant rain out of this. Radar is really beginning to fill in to the east and it looks like it is being pulled in off the Atlantic.

Link
Gale force winds in the gulf..

This morning was the first time I've been woken up by a thunderstorm in quite some time, around 6 in the morning. Heaviest downpour in several weeks as well.

And now that were in November, quick fun sports fact: the 1985 Bears scored more points on defense than their opponents did on offense for the month of November.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Taken by a friend on the south side of Asheville (near the airport) a short while ago:

Ver y un componente snow in The south, so early in the south....
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
816 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE PUSHING TOWARDS THE REGION
TODAY. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG WITH THE
FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST ABOUT OVER THE CITY
OF COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF BRIGHT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD INDICATE SOME SNOW
MIXED IN WITH THE RAINFALL. THIS IS BEING VERIFIED BY LOOKING OUT
OF THE OFFICE WINDOW. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IS RAINFALL WITH SOME
SNOW MIXED IN...BUT SOME AREAS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF ALL SNOW THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
THIS MAY CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...LESS THAN AN INCH...ON
GRASSY SURFACES AND ELEVATED SURFACES. ROADWAY TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING. OF NOTE...WITH THIS SNOW OVER COLUMBIA...THIS NOW THE
EARLIEST SNOWFALL ON RECORD FOR THE CITY.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING.
We'll have to keep an eye on the Bay Of Bengal again next week, models are showing another system:









The GFS is the most agressive, followed by the UKMET. The CMC is rather fast with the system compared to other models and the Euro is a lot slower in developing it. Definitely something to watch in the coming week. The models should start getting a better handle on it in the coming days.
Appears conservative for Houlton, Preque Isle, caribou, Millinockett. For them 10" is a "squall." lol

Wouldn't be surprised if some places actually flirt with 20"

Right now everyone is out at the hardware store buying spakplugs for their snowblowers or calling their Uncle Bert because they need help getting the plow blade back on their truck.

Quoting 236. Grothar:




Quoting 241. Grothar:


History in the making today across South Carolina as a historic early season snow hits South Carolina
I know we're all fixated on the snow and developing nor'easter, but lets not forget about Nuri in the WPac...

It could easily become the next super typhoon, and judging by satellite presentation alone it is very close to being a typhoon for sure, if it isn't one already.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hi folks ...

Edit: Dooh, doc was quicker. So I take the post to the new blog, lol.