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U.S. Winter 2014-15: Mild and Dry, but Not Everywhere

By: Bob Henson 11:14 PM GMT on March 11, 2015

Despite huge west-to-east differences, the nation’s meteorological winter of 2014-15 (December through February) ended up warmer and drier than average, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. NCDC reported on Wednesday that the contiguous 48 U.S. states saw their 19th mildest winter in records that go back to 1895. The average of 34.3°F came in a full 2.1°F above the 20th-century average. Over the last century, winters have warmed more than 2.0°F across the 48 states, with seven of the last 10 winters placing warmer than average (see Figure 1).

Precipitation came in as the 27th lowest on record, with the 48-state average of 6.12” falling 0.67” below the 20th-century norm. Although seven of the last 10 winters have been drier than average nationwide, there is no discernable trend in winter precipitation for the 48 states as a whole (see Figure 2).


Figure 1. Winter temperature rankings (December-February) for the period 1895-96 through 2014-15. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center


Figure 2. Winter precipitation rankings (December-February) for the period 1895-96 through 2014-15. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center.


In many ways, this was a tale of two winters, both in time and space. December was extremely warm nationwide, second only to 1939, while January and especially February featured a split between record or near-record warmth across much of the West and intensifying cold over most of the East. More than half of the 48 states saw either a top-ten warmest or top-ten coldest February (see Figure 3). Five states had their warmest February on record. Interestingly, although every state from Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York through New England had its second-coldest February, no state set a monthly record, with 1934 holding on to top billing (except in Ohio, where the coldest February remains 1978). Nevertheless, as we reported in a post last week, a number of locations had their coldest single month or their coldest February on record, while some Western cities had their warmest winter month on record.


Figure 3. Temperature rankings for February 2015. A value of 1 indicates the coldest February in the 121-year record, whereas 121 indicates the warmest. Image credit: NOAA National Climatic Data Center


Overall, last month’s Northeast chill was remarkable given that February has been warming at a rapid clip over that region: more than 4°F since 1900. The West has only been warming at about half that rate in the long term during February, but the heat was on last month in many areas, especially California, where February was 1.3°F warmer than the previous record-holder (1962).

In spite of the relentless snowfall that buried New England in February—especially eastern Massachusetts, where Boston and Worcester had their snowiest month on record—the Northeast as a whole had its 12th driest February on record. The main reason was the absence of rain. Typically, heavy rains can drench the Northeast even in midwinter, whereas little rain occurred there with the persistently cold pattern this past month. Two snowy places that did manage to set records for their highest February precipitation were Boulder, CO (3.69”, including 54.8” of snow) and Riverton, WY (1.28”, including 17.8” of snow). Across most of the West, precipitation ended up well below the winter norm, and the amount of moisture locked up in snowpack by early March was far below average from California through Washington and southwest British Columbia all the way to southern Alaska.
For much more detail, see the NOAA summaries for December, January, and February (which includes winter 2014-15), and our WU posts for December and January.

How well did the seasonal forecasts do?
For those courageous forecasters who attempt to predict how each winter will fare, the last few years have been challenging indeed. This time, the impacts of what’s been a marginal El Niño ended up weaker and patchier than expected. The west-to-east temperature contrast noted above overwhelmed the more prototypical El Niño winter pattern of milder-than-average weather across the northern tier of states and cooler-than-average conditions over the Sunbelt.


Figure 4. A comparision of seasonal temperatures forecasts for winter 2014-15 issued by NOAA (left) and WSI (center) with actual temperatures (right). Image credit: Todd Crawford, WSI, with data from NOAA.

Several private forecasting firms went for more widespread cold across the East than was projected by NOAA, including WSI. According to chief meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI’s forecasters believed that the weak El Niño would push the influence of the tropical Pacific farther east than it was in the winter of 2013-14. “This resulted in an eastward shift of the poleward-and-downstream ridging relative to last year, which meant that the largest negative temperature anomalies ended up farther east than last year,” Crawford told me.

Another closely watched factor is the extent of snow cover across Siberia in the autumn. Studies led by Judah Cohen (Atmospheric and Environmental Research) suggest that greater October snow extent may trigger surface high pressure and lead to stratospheric disruptions that produce spells of winter cold and snow over eastern North America and Eurasia, linked to negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Last October, snow cover in Siberia was close to a record-high extent in October, implying an enhanced risk of midwinter cold and snow in the U.S. Northeast. Although a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) did occur, and AER’s U.S. temperature forecast verified well, the AO ended up positive rather than negative during most of the winter, especially in February. In an email, Cohen explained: “I do believe that the tropospheric pattern from late January though February was reflective of the stratospheric circulation forced by the SSW in early January. We are trying to understand why the AO stayed positive, and I think that we have some good leads.”

Jan Null (Golden Gate Weather Services) takes a closer look at how NOAA’s temperature and precipitation forecasts verified for winter 2014-15. Another useful tool is the interactive verification website provided by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. It’s worth noting that CPC’s seasonal forecasts are probabilistic: the areas marked “A” are not blanket forecasts of above-average conditions, but rather denote a shifting of the odds toward above-average and away from below-average, with the odds of near-normal conditions fixed at 33.3% except where huge departures are expected. More explanation can be found at a CPC tools page.

Bob Henson


Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

New blog... thanks
Wow Fast blog updating. Thanks for the update and on an important subject as how the winter this year was. Warm for some and cold for others.
These articles have been great, Mr. Henson! I look forward to learning what they've found in regards to the AO staying positive for so much of the forecast period.
Interesting read Webberweather53
Just as interesting,the poui trees here in Trinidad are flowering early which tells me a wet and early start to our rainy season,most areas here are well above average in rainfall away,hardly a bush fire anywhere.
Gro - Pam is looking quite gnarly. Hope something like that doesn't pay Florida a visit this year.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA MUCH OF THE WEEK...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO
TO THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. WITH MODELS INDICATING SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR FOUR
INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST...THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOODING POTENTIAL.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$
Quoting 5. Grothar:




boring : /
Quoting Webberweather53:


Well, it certainly looks that way & the current modoki El Nino, IMO looks like a seasonal manifestation of ENSO, may see it modify into an east-based or hybrid event w/ increasing time, especially after the autumnal equinox when the southern Asia/Indian Monsoon quiets down & the MJO once again, gains relative equatorial symmetry... Despite the ongoing El Nino, confused AMO, & a host of related unfavorable seasonal proxies, just like last year, admist these unfavorable pre-conditions, the one factor lending support to this season is the persistence of the -IOD, which favors a stronger African Easterly Jet & robust AEWs...

-IOD vs +IOD years African precipitation



-IOD vs +IOD years Global SSTs, (also note how -IOD years have a decent correlations w/ La Ninas, which are generally more conducive to tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic)...



Reminiscent to a large-scale sea breeze circulation & the logic behind cool Gulf of Guinea, the cooler SSTs surrounding Africa focuses increased upward motion & instability over the continent itself, favoring the development of more intense AEWs which stand a better chance to survive the hostile conditions that will be imparted on the Atlantic this year (thus, perhaps we'll once again see a few weak tropical cyclones get their act together over the deep tropics during the peak of the season)...




Over the last 5 years (2010-2014 vs 2005-2009), or the last few decades for that matter, sub-saharan Africa has been steadily growing wetter, and it's plausible to think that we may finally be exiting the multidecadal dry sahel period that's been in place since 1970...






Additionally, despite the overall inactivity in the eastern deep tropical Atlantic, Africa was wetter than normal last year, & at least through about the end of August, eddy kinetic energy was also above normal...




What El Nino years predominantly had a -IOD?
Quoting 9. weatherbro:


What El Nino years predominantly had a -IOD?


The gigantic Kelvin wave that kicked off the curent -IOD seems to be dying down/dissipating. Whether or not it will switch to positive is anybody's guess at this point, but if it does, that's likely to lead to a stronger El Nino and weaker Atlantic 'cane season.


Link
Port Vila Harbour live webcam. Updates every 30 seconds or so.
Quoting 5. Grothar:



Pam is already a monster... and its not even done yet.
Quoting 5. Grothar:



It still looks a bit ragged, but those cold cloud tops are insane. Looks like some values getting close to -90 C
Quoting 13. Huracan94:


It still looks a bit ragged, but those cold cloud tops are insane. Looks like some values getting close to -90 C


I never followed the Pacific basin as closely as I did the Atlantic, but the sure do grow 'em big down there.
Quoting 12. jeffs713:


Pam is already a monster... and its not even done yet.


I wouldn't call it a monster. I'd say the JTWC is overrating it as a Cat-4 right now
Quoting 1. MaxWeather:

New blog... thanks



Good evening,

I would like to enter numbers, 12-4-2, for the 2015 Hurricane season.
Thank you Mr. Henson....Winter will be back for some..jmo..

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PORTIONS OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ALONG CREEKS AND
STREAMS AND IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY HAVE POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.

PORTIONS OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER COULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MINOR
FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY...IF NOT LONGER. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST
RIVER STATEMENTS FOR STAGE AND FORECAST INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Thanks for the update Bob!
Quoting 16. AreadersinceWilma:




Good evening,

I would like to enter numbers, 12-4-2, for the 2015 Hurricane season.
That's interesting, because those are the same exact numbers from the 2002 season. Good forecast. I also believe conditions should be much like that.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE PRONE TO REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...RESULTING IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

$$
I posted a new blog about all our tropical systems, especially Pam:


Link
Quoting AreadersinceWilma:



Good evening,

I would like to enter numbers, 12-4-2, for the 2015 Hurricane season.



i would re enter that in his blog

Link


in case he dos not come back on it will make it easyer for him tooo see it if it was in his blog has in the over night hrs or longer this blog could have 200+ more of commits and oh wants too be looking back at 100s of commits this too find it
Quoting hydrus:
Thank you Mr. Henson....Winter will be back for some..jmo..

Quoting hydrus:

What?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! More winter weather?!?!?!?!?!?!?
I'll take this with a grain of salt for now.
I hope it doesn't verify...
Quoting 26. 62901IL:


What?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! More winter weather?!?!?!?!?!?!?
I'll take this with a grain of salt for now.
I hope it doesn't verify...



I hope to heck it's wrong! Once you get a taste of spring there's no going back! See the flood watches along the mississippi?
Is the NWS hourly graph working for the rest of you? It isn't for me...
Quoting TimTheWxMan:



I hope to heck it's wrong! Once you get a taste of spring there's no going back! See the flood watches along the mississippi?

I do. I'm under one.
Quoting 4. DDR:

Interesting read Webberweather53
Just as interesting,the poui trees here in Trinidad are flowering early which tells me a wet and early start to our rainy season,most areas here are well above average in rainfall away,hardly a bush fire anywhere.
It has been very wet here in the dry season.
Damn!
Quoting 25. Tazmanian:




i would re enter that in his blog

Link


in case he dos not come back on it will make it easyer for him tooo see it if it was in his blog has in the over night hrs or longer this blog could have 200+ more of commits and oh wants too be looking back at 100s of commits this too find it


Thank you.
Quoting 29. 62901IL:


I do. I'm under one.



Yep, basically anywhere south of 64 for the most part.
Quoting 28. 62901IL:

Is the NWS hourly graph working for the rest of you? It isn't for me...

Not sure what you're referring to? NWS has been slow for me since yesterday, though.
Quoting AreadersinceWilma:


Thank you.


welcome
Its only a matter of time....
Quoting 14. Grothar:



I never followed the Pacific basin as closely as I did the Atlantic, but the sure do grow 'em big down there.


Jealous are we?
Quoting LAbonbon:

Not sure what you're referring to? NWS has been slow for me since yesterday, though.

Never mind, it'll resolve itself.
Quoting 28. 62901IL:

Is the NWS hourly graph working for the rest of you? It isn't for me...


I haven't been able to get it to work since they changed the site layout. I get the error "An error occurred while processing your request. Please try to load the page again by clicking the 'Refresh/Reload' button on your browser." Attempting to do so causes the page to crash. I suspect it's something to do with the redesign.
12/0001 UTC 18.7S 115.0E T4.0/4.0 OLWYN -- Southeast Indian
11/2338 UTC 29.8S 45.2W T1.0/1.0 CARI -- South Atlantic
11/2332 UTC 12.5S 170.2E T6.0/6.0 PAM -- Southwest Pacific
11/2332 UTC 13.6S 145.6E T3.5/3.5 NATHAN -- Southwest Pacific
11/2032 UTC 6.7N 166.8E T2.5/2.5 BAVI -- West Pacific
Quoting 5. Grothar:



Question for anybody - This image has both 18z and 21z on it. What do the two times represent?
From the previous blog:

Absolutely incredible, not 1, not 2, not 3, but 4 system in this neck of the woods. With such a strong MJO pulse and the right conditions, these are the results: Bavi, Pam, Nathan, Olwyn.



Bavi



Pam



Nathan



Olwyn

Quoting 41. LAbonbon:


Question for anybody - This image has both 18z and 21z on it. What do the two times represent?

Top is the time of the latest operational track data (strength, location, etc.), and the bottom is the time of the sat image.
Quoting 41. LAbonbon:


Question for anybody - This image has both 18z and 21z on it. What do the two times represent?

18z was the last Best Track update time, 21z represents the time the satellite image was taken.
Quoting 44. TropicalAnalystwx13:


18z was the last Best Track update time, 21z represents the time the satellite image was taken.
Quoting 43. 1900hurricane:


Top is the time of the latest operational track data (strength, location, etc.), and the bottom is the time of the sat image.

Thanks, guys! I thought that might be the case, but didn't want to assume.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
10:55 AM EST March 12 2015
=====================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two (987 hPa) located at 13.9S 145.4E or 85 kilometers north of Lizard Island and 175 kilometers north of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
35 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
70 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Cyclone Nathan is continuing to move slowly west towards the coast near Cape Flattery. It is expected to slow this movement during today and ultimately change direction to the east-northeast away from the coast over the next 24 hours

GALES extend out to approximately 100 kilometers from the center to the south of the system and could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Port Douglas today. GALES could extend north to Lockhart River overnight and into Friday, depending on the track the cyclone takes.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometers of the center early Friday morning and could begin to affect coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to 70 kilometers from the center and could develop about the coast and islands between Cooktown and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island, today.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts throughout today. A separate Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall and damaging winds is current for parts of these districts.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during today with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors in case this scenario occurs.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 13.6S 145.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 13.5S 145.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.3S 148.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 14.1S 152.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
====================
CIMSS winds continue to depict 20 to 30 knots of east-northeasterly shear over tropical cyclone Nathan, and the system continued to struggle to maintain convection around its core through the diurnal minimum yesterday. Overnight Wednesday another burst of convection has flared up and this has enabled Dvorak T numbers to be maintained. More recent imagery indicates a flare up of convection to north of the system.

Intensity is maintained at 50 knots 10 minute mean based on the Dvorak analysis. The center lies under the deep convection giving a shear pattern of DT 3.5. DTs using the embedded center technique are beginning to increase, the average over the last few hours gives about a 4.0. This may indicate some intensification is occurring. MET and PAT is 3.5. Final T is 3.5.

Microwave imagery has shown the mid level center to be displaced from the low level circulation center as would be expected under the current shear regime. The recent microwave images at 2100Z show that the displacement is about 20-25 nautical miles to the west of the low level circulation center. Likewise, the low level circulation center is expected to be east of the circulation currently depicted on the Cairns weather radar, which is viewing the system at a height of 6 km or more. There are slight indications based on the latest microwave and radar that the mid level circulation is beginning to turn to the northwest, which could be the first hints that the system is beginning to slow and change course.

From tonight the mid-level ridge steering the system to the west southwest will break down ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west, and the steering pattern will change to push the system east overnight Thursday or on Friday. The east northeasterly shear is prognosed to decrease with the erosion of the mid-level ridge so the main intensification in the forecast period has been reserved for after 1200 UTC Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lockhart River to Port Douglas
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (T1503)
9:00 AM JST March 12 2015
=================================
Near Marshall Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bavi (994 hPa) located at 7.0N 166.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 9.6N 160.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
48 HRS: 11.8N 153.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Truks (Chuuk)
72 HRS: 13.2N 147.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands

Port Vila Harbour webcam
Here comes some heavy rain...
Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam

Vanuatu meteorological services has the pressure down to 930 hPa
The official RSMC has the pressure at 935 hPa (100 knots)
Watch the ice break up in Baltimore's Inner Harbor today! Latest I recall.

Also thanks to txjac for the article, which I will add to the daily list in my blog and for Dr. Rood.

It was hot and sticky here today. A high of 85 and humidity to match. Unfortunately, all the ripe air turned into nothing for me as I continue to sit at zero rainfall since Sunday. A small blobette of storms developed with some intense rainfall about 40 miles south of me. The storms prompted a short-lived severe thunderstorm warning, but the remnants of the rain drifted east in Georgia. There are still some showers in the area but their trajectory to the NE is on the precise path needed to miss me again. Dothan airport reported 2.87" (!) of rain, 1.80" of which fell in 40 minutes (!).

There are still thunderstorms in the Gulf south of the LA/MS line but, as they have all day, they are weakening as they hit the shelf and cooler water. The remains are drifting over mainly southern MS, where they drop some light rain and then dissipate. It's instructive to watch how quickly the cooler water can kill vigorous convection. Something to keep in mind for the upcoming TS season.

This has been a disappointing event for east Alabama. It's easy to see where there has been any rain by looking at the river stages. The two main rivers that drain west Alabama are the Tombigbee and the Alabama. Both of those have seen some moderate rises but both remain below even minor flood stage. The major river on my side of the state is the Chattahoochee. The gauge at the dam that creates Lake Eufaula is at 110 feet. That sounds high until you realize minor flood stage is 134 feet. The Corps took the reservoir down about two feet Saturday in anticipation of the flood threat which has just not developed. I'm hoping we can pick up some more thunderstorms tomorrow and get the reservoir at least back to where we started. It now looks like tomorrow is about the last chance for any heavy rainfall.

This has been a good rainfall event for Texas over to south MS but it certainly hasn't developed at all like the models predicted. The front, instead of being draped along the coast with a general east-west orientation, is running from north Georgia SW to out in the middle of the Gulf. The thunderstorms in the Gulf should be a lot closer to shore according to the models. It's getting more than a little frustrating to see these systems which are well advertised, with high PW and instability values, just die in my neck of the woods.

Quoting 41. LAbonbon:


Question for anybody - This image has both 18z and 21z on it. What do the two times represent?


Both times represent where the storm used to be. 18Z is more "used to be" than 21Z.
;-]
Quoting Huracan94:

Port Vila Harbour webcam
Here comes some heavy rain...
As long as that web cam remains up, we at least know that Pam hasn't been too bad. Once it goes offline, then we just sit and wait.
Quoting 53. sar2401:

As long as that web cam remains up, we at least know that Pam hasn't been too bad. Once it goes offline, then we just sit and wait.

I do wish there was a webcam with streaming video rather than 30 second updates though. Kinda hard to tell how strong the winds are when you're looking at a still image.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
9:00 AM EST March 12 2015
=====================================

At 8:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Two (988 hPa) located at 18.3S 115.0E or 335 kilometers northwest of Karratha and 415 kilometers north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity; T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn continues to intensify as it moves towards the Northwest Cape and is expected to reach Category 3 before landfall.

If the system takes a more southwestwards track it may remain over water and retain cyclone intensity for longer as it moves southwards. In that scenario communities along the Gascoyne coast will experience much higher winds than if it tracks just inland from the coast.

Regardless of whether it is over water or land, as it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/hr are expected to develop between Karratha and Exmouth during Thursday afternoon. From late Thursday, gales may extend inland to Pannawonica and Nanutarra. Should the system take a more southerly track during Thursday then gales may extend as far east as Whim Creek.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/hr could develop near the west Pilbara coast late Thursday evening or early Friday morning as the cyclone approaches the coast. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/hr may extend to Coral Bay for a period during Friday morning then to Cape Cuvier later on Friday.

Residents between Mardie and Exmouth are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne during Thursday and continue into Friday. Heavy rainfall will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 20.3S 114.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 22.5S 113.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 28.7S 115.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 36.7S 121.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
Tropical Cyclone Olwyn was located using recent infrared and microwave imagery.

Dvorak: Curved band analysis on enhanced infrared gives a wrap of 0.8 and a DT of 3.5. MET was 3.5 based on a D+ trend. 0030Z image shows an eye emerging in both visible and infrared. These images yield DT4.0 based on eye analysis. FT/CI set to 3.5 with intensity of 50 knots [10 minute mean winds]. This is in good agreement with ADT and available SATCON but given the continuing intensification evident in microwave and infrared it is possible the current intensity is slightly higher.

CIMSS shear analysis at 1800 UTC indicated shear between 5 and 10 knots. Shear is low over a broad region. Upper winds show good outflow over all quadrants. Ocean heat content is high. The environment is favorable for intensification at at least the standard rate. Rapid intensification is possible.

The range of numerical weather prediction tracks now has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards the south southwest towards the west Pilbara coast. It is possible that the system will take a more southwesterly track and remain over water as it moves down the west coast south of Exmouth. In this scenario wind impacts down the west coast will be much greater. Shear increases as the system moves south but the increase is not as abrupt as is often the case and the system is likely to undergo ETT and retain significant wind strength into higher latitudes.

Interaction with an approaching trough will turn the system to the south southeast and increase speed during Friday with ETT likely. A combination of landfall and increasing shear will weaken the system during this period though it will produce heavy rain and squally winds over a large part of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Whim Creek to Cape Cuvier, including Karratha and Exmouth and extending to inland parts of the west Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Cuvier to Jurien Bay, including Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and Geraldton and extending to inland parts of the west Gascoyne and Central West District
Quoting 52. beell:



Both times represent where the storm used to be. 18Z is more "used to be" than 21Z.
;-]

That's the most beell response possible to that question. :P
Quoting 50. BaltimoreBrian:

Watch the ice break up in Baltimore's Inner Harbor today! Latest I recall.

Also thanks to txjac for the article, which I will add to the daily list in my blog and for Dr. Rood.




NICE BALTIMORE Brian...

Did you get to see it in person?
Quoting 31. Gearsts:

Damn!



...and the REVERSAL of Atlantic SSTs BEGINS....

:-)

Meanwhile ALL, yes ALL Nino regions are COOLING.







Quoting 59. CaribBoy:

Meanwhile ALL, yes ALL Nino regions are COOLING.









Whooopeee!!!!! I wonder why they are cooling. Maybe strengthening easterly trade winds.
The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 0.00
Pam...
Nerrima Station, Westearn Australia. Last Week!
Photos from:
Bureau of Meteorology
PAM.. Click pic for loop of Rapid Intensification....
Recent Modis of Pam..

Almost does look hybrid-ish (subtropical) in a way:



Developing cold low off the coast of southern Texas, weak frontogenesis off the coast of Louisiana, and a comma-shaped band of clouds well-removed from the large-scale lower-cyclonic vorticity. We're still missing a surface low, but heavy rain should continue to pour into portions of Louisiana and Mississippi over the next day or two. In a few days, most of the global models show this system intensifying baroclinically over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, eventually merging into the western Atlantic as a fairly vigorous extratropical cyclone and unusually far south for this time of year.

EDIT: You can't see what I'm talking about as well in this image. But the water vapor gif is broken because reasons.
TERRA caught a pass of Pam too..

Quoting 62. Skyepony:

Pam...


SH17!!!!
Kori~ It's like the tropics went off all over the last few days. They are even trying in the Atlantic despite that really dry blob of black air (in your Water Vapor loop)..
Quoting Huracan94:

I do wish there was a webcam with streaming video rather than 30 second updates though. Kinda hard to tell how strong the winds are when you're looking at a still image.
Frankly, we're lucky to have a functioning webcam of any kind in Vanuatu. The internet there is all satellite based (or at least was in 2001) and the bandwidth for something like streaming video is slow and expensive. As long as the cam stays up, we know Port Vila still has power. That means winds haven't gone much above gale force. I don't believe that power is going to last too long with Pam but it all depends on the orientation of the weakest quadrant in relation to Efate, where Port Vila is located.
Quoting 69. Skyepony:

Kori~ It's like the tropics went off all over the last few days. They are even trying in the Atlantic despite that really dry blob of black air (in your Water Vapor loop)..


Haha you edited, (before I even posted).. I was referring to this version... The black air over the Caribbean.

Quoting 36. washingtonian115:

Its only a matter of time....


What, for sea level rise or a hurricane?
Just been sitting there for like the last 3 days
Looking at the models, could Pam attempt to reach New Zealand as a tropical cyclone?
Quoting 72. opal92nwf:


What, for sea level rise or a hurricane?

Technically both
Quoting 63. pablosyn:

Nerrima Station, Westearn Australia. Last Week!
Photos from:
Bureau of Meteorology



That some downright scary looking clouds there Pablosyn...

Quoting KoritheMan:
Almost does look hybrid-ish (subtropical) in a way:



Developing cold low off the coast of southern Texas, weak frontogenesis off the coast of Louisiana, and a comma-shaped band of clouds well-removed from the large-scale lower-cyclonic vorticity. We're still missing a surface low, but heavy rain should continue to pour into portions of Louisiana and Mississippi over the next day or two. In a few days, most of the global models show this system intensifying baroclinically over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, eventually merging into the western Atlantic as a fairly vigorous extratropical cyclone and unusually far south for this time of year.

EDIT: You can't see what I'm talking about as well in this image. But the water vapor gif is broken because reasons.
There is a 1018 surface "low" in the Gulf according to the surface map I posted in #51. I put low in quotes because it's not much a low. The pressure at my house is presently 1017 mb. The main area of convection is slightly SW of Gulfport but there's another area further SW and now some developing off Galveston. The characteristic of this/blob/low is that it hasn't moved since yesterday, and almost none of the convection has made it onshore. Some shower activity is starting to creep into MS now so maybe the low will start moving. If it was July, there would be a lot more arm flapping going on, no doubt about that. :-)
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment. Today has many important articles!

* National Weather Service Forecasters Use GPS Precipitable Water Vapor for Enhanced Situational Awareness during the Southern California Summer Monsoon

The TIGGE Project and its Achievements


Rapid coastal population growth may leave many exposed to sea-level rise

Blue blood on ice: How an Antarctic octopus survives the cold

*** Mysterious phenomena in a gigantic galaxy-cluster collision



* A grand extravaganza of new stars



*** Particle jets reveal the secrets of the most exotic state of matter



!!! Physics of clouds: Long-held ideas about turbulence disproven

!!! Study reveals sexual appeal of war heroes
;)

* Did Neandertals make jewelry 130,000 years go? Eagle claws provide clues



!!! Epoch-defining study pinpoints when humans came to dominate planet Earth I disagree. I say July 16, 1945

We've got the whole world...in our hands.



!!! Discovery demystifies origin of life phenomenon

!!! New material captures carbon at half the energy cost



*** The corrugated galaxy: Milky Way may be much larger than previously estimated



* Saturn moon Enceladus' ocean may harbor hydrothermal activity, spacecraft data suggest




Germany seeks to boost renewable sources of heating

Gigantic ancient arthropod was really 'a very peaceful guy'



* Oceans yield 1,500 new creatures, many others lurk unknown


*** Why China's nuclear plans in Pakistan draw global criticism

The huge implications of Google's idea to rank sites based on their accuracy


************************************************* *************************************************

The following article is courtesy of txjac:

*** Between the Manhattan Bridge and Montgomery Street, deployable walls are attached to the underside of the FDR DriveProtecting Manhattan from another Hurricane Sandy: Stunning plans revealed for the Dryline - 10 miles of waterfront park that will disguise crucial flood defences

************************************************* *************************************************

The following article is courtesy of pipejazz:

!!! 'Sugar papers' reveal industry role in 1970s U.S. National Caries Program, analysis shows
Quoting 71. Skyepony:



Haha you edited, (before I even posted).. I was referring to this version... The black air over the Caribbean.



Without pulling up a plot or anything, I'm going to guess that we're running below average for vertical instability in the North Atlantic right now... :P
Quoting 72. opal92nwf:


What, for sea level rise or a hurricane?


When do we start singing the "we wave you goodbye" song?
Dakster--alas I didn't get to see it.
Quoting 81. Dakster:



When do we start singing the "we wave you goodbye" song?

Wave goodbye to what? me or those houses?
Quoting 82. BaltimoreBrian:

Dakster--alas I didn't get to see it.


Darn!!!

I wanted to see Forzen Niagara falls in person, but with everything going on a trip to upper NY or Ontario Canada just wasn't in the cards this time.
Quoting 84. opal92nwf:


Wave goodbye to what? me or those houses?


The houses of course. You said it is only a matter of time...
Quoting 80. 1900hurricane:


Without pulling up a plot or anything, I'm going to guess that we're running below average for vertical instability in the North Atlantic right now... :P

Understatement of the year.

Quoting skycycle:
Looking at the models, could Pam attempt to reach New Zealand as a tropical cyclone?
It could. Lusi made it there last March although not as a tropical cyclone. Climatology favors a turn to the east after a storm passes south of Fiji. That didn't happen with Lusi, which continued more or less south while weakening. We'll see if Pam follows climatology or Lusi.
Nathan..24hr rainfall amounts expected by NOAA..
Pam..24hr rainfall amounts expected by NOAA..

Quoting 74. skycycle:

Looking at the models, could Pam attempt to reach New Zealand as a tropical cyclone?


Pam should miss New Zealand. Pam should become a fairly strong XTrop cyclone with an expanding wind field as it passes by to the NE and merges into the westerlies. It may even deepen some after weakening as a tropical system. Most likely Sunday or Monday
Here are multiple live shots around Port Vila. However, they don't seem to be working all that great and this is all i could find.


Link


Perhaps PortFever may have a livestream on youtube like during Gonzalo when they streamed with the webcam at Commissioner's Point, Bermuda.
Double eye.
Who will let us know when it becomes a pin hole eye?

Gearts has us covered for the dual eyes.
Quoting 94. Dakster:

Who will let us know when it becomes a pin hole eye?

Gearts has us covered for the dual eyes.
;)
Quoting 93. Gearsts:

Double eye.





Yep .. that's a twofer.
Quoting 78. sar2401:

There is a 1018 surface "low" in the Gulf according to the surface map I posted in #51. I put low in quotes because it's not much a low. The pressure at my house is presently 1017 mb. The main area of convection is slightly SW of Gulfport but there's another area further SW and now some developing off Galveston. The characteristic of this/blob/low is that it hasn't moved since yesterday, and almost none of the convection has made it onshore. Some shower activity is starting to creep into MS now so maybe the low will start moving. If it was July, there would be a lot more arm flapping going on, no doubt about that. :-)


Any surface low should develop off the Texas coast; that's where the greatest upper-level support is.

HURRICANE SEASON 2015

The 19th prediction, comes from Areadersincewilma, the most recent one listed.

I would like to have an update for the upcoming Ides of March (March 15), hoping I could add in several more predictions.
Now we are getting halfway into the month, the time for hurricanes in our North Atlantic basin is fast approaching.

Who is ready?
Yes, you can make changes to your numbers if you want to.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
2:06 PM EST March 12 2015
=====================================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two located at 13.8S 145.2E or 100 kilometers north northwest of Lizard Island and 185 kilometers north of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Cyclone Nathan is continuing to move slowly west towards the coast north of Cape Flattery. It is expected to slow this movement during today and ultimately change direction to the east-northeast away from the coast over the next 24 hours.

GALES extend out to approximately 110 kilometers from the center to the north of the system and about 60 kilometers to the south of the system. GALES could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Port Douglas today. GALES could extend north to Lockhart River overnight and into Friday, depending on the track the cyclone takes.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometers of the center early Friday morning and could begin to affect coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS extend out to 70 kilometers from the center and could develop about the coast and islands between Cooktown and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island, today.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected across parts of the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands and Peninsula districts throughout today. A separate Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall and damaging winds is current for parts of these districts.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during today with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors in case this scenario occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lockhart River to Port Douglas

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
11:55 AM WST March 12 2015
=====================================

At 11:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Two located at 19.0S 114.8E or 290 kilometers northwest of Karratha and 335 kilometers north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 10 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn continues to intensify as it moves towards the Northwest Cape and is expected to reach Category 3 before landfall.

If the system takes a more southwestwards track it may remain over water and retain cyclone intensity for longer as it moves southwards. In that scenario communities along the Gascoyne coast will experience much higher winds than if it tracks just inland from the coast. Regardless of whether it is over water or land, as it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/hr are expected to develop between Karratha and Exmouth during Thursday afternoon. From late Thursday, gales may extend inland to Pannawonica and Nanutarra. Should the system take a more southerly track during Thursday then gales may extend as far east as Whim Creek.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/hr are expected to develop near the west Pilbara coast, most likely between Onslow and Exmouth, late Thursday evening or early Friday morning as the cyclone approaches the coast. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/hr may extend to Coral Bay for a period during Friday morning then to Cape Cuvier during Friday afternoon.

Residents between Mardie and Exmouth are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne during Thursday and continue into Friday. Heavy rainfall will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Whim Creek to Cape Cuvier, including Karratha, Barrow Island, Onlsow and Exmouth and extending to inland parts of the west Pilbara and northwest Gascoyne

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Cape Cuvier to Jurien Bay, including Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and Geraldton and extending to inland parts of the west Gascoyne and Central West districts
Quoting 41. LAbonbon:


Question for anybody - This image has both 18z and 21z on it. What do the two times represent?
2100 is the time of the image, 1800 is the time of the position, windspeed, and pressure that are in the URL of the image....

/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/med ium/tc15/SHEM/17P.PAM/ir/geo/1km/20150311.2100.goe s15.x.ir1km.17PPAM.115kts-937mb-119S-1701E.95pc.jpg
Quoting beell:


Pam should miss New Zealand. Pam should become a fairly strong XTrop cyclone with an expanding wind field as it passes by to the NE and merges into the westerlies. It may even deepen some after weakening as a tropical system. Most likely Sunday or Monday

I know most storms are XTrop that impact N.Z> but does any one know if the North Island has ever had a major TC landfall?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #21
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY FOUR (11F)
18:00 PM FST March 12 2015
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category Four (920 hPa) located at 13.4S 170.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
60 NM from the center in western semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Eye warming and convective tops cooling further past 6 hours. System lies in a moderate sheared environment with moderate to high upper divergence. Outflow good. Cyclonic circulation extends to 250 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C

System tracking along the western periphery of the sub-tropical ridge located to the east. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with OW eye surrounded in white, yields DT=6.0, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models agree on southwards movement with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 15.2S 170.0E - 120 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS 17.3S 169.8E - 120 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS 22.8S 172.0E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
3:28 PM WST March 12 2015
=====================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Two (983 hPa) located at 19.6S 114.7E or 230 kilometers north of Onslow and 265 kilometers north northeast of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity; T4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn continues to intensify as it moves towards the Northwest Cape and is expected to reach Category 3 before landfall.

If the system takes a more southwestwards track it may remain over water and retain cyclone intensity for longer. In that scenario communities along the Gascoyne coast will experience much higher winds than if it tracks just inland from the coast. Regardless of whether it is over water or land, as it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

Gales with gusts to 100 km/hr are developing along the Pilbara coast between Karratha and Exmouth. During Thursday evening DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 165 km/hr are expected to develop on the Pilbara coast west of Mardie and gales are likely to extend inland to Pannawonica and Nanutarra.

Late Thursday evening or early Friday morning VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/hr are expected to develop near the west Pilbara coast, most likely between Onslow and Exmouth, as the cyclone approaches the coast. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/hr may extend to Coral Bay for a period during Friday morning then to Cape Cuvier during Friday afternoon.

Residents between Mardie and Exmouth are specifically warned of the potential of a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne during Thursday and continue into Friday. Heavy rainfall will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 21.7S 114.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 24.2S 113.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 31.5S 117.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 38.0S 123.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
Dvorak: Eye analysis using enhanced infrared imagery has a center embedded in MG, yielding DT=4.5. Eye has remained ragged/elongated and so eye adjust is -0.5 giving DT of 4.0. This pattern has been consistent for the last several hours and so CI=FT=4.0. No recent SATCON guidance, but in absence of noticeable improvement in satellite features and microwave/sat wind guidance, setting intensity at 60 knots [10-min mean].

Shear remains low. Upper winds show good outflow over all quadrants.Ocean heat content is high. The environment is favorable for intensification at at least the standard rate. Rapid intensification is possible.

The range of numerical weather prediction tracks now has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards the south southwest towards the west Pilbara coast. It is possible that the system will take a more southwesterly track and remain over water as it moves down the west coast south of Exmouth. In this scenario wind impacts down the west coast will be much greater. Shear increases as the system moves south but the increase is not as abrupt as is often the case and the system is likely to undergo ETT and retain significant wind strength into higher latitudes.

Interaction with an approaching trough will turn the system to the south southeast and increase speed during Friday with ETT likely. A combination of landfall and increasing shear will weaken the system during this period though it will produce heavy rain and squally winds over a large part of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Whim Creek to Overlander

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Overlander to Jurien Bay
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
5:02 PM EST March 12 2015
=====================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two (982 hPa) located at 13.9S 145.1E or 70 kilometers east northeast of Cape Melville and 175 kilometers north of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
35 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
25 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
25 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
35 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Cyclone Nathan has become slow moving off the coast between Coen and Cooktown. It is expected to begin moving away from the coast during Friday.

GALES currently extend out to approximately 110 kilometers from the center to the north of the system and about 60 kilometers to the south of the system. GALES are likely between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island and could develop about coastal and island areas north to Lockhart River this evening or tomorrow morning. GALES could extend south to Cape Tribulation overnight and into Friday depending on the track the cyclone takes.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometers of the center early Friday morning and could begin to affect coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville if the cyclone moves close to the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS currently extend out to 70 kilometers from the center and could develop about the coast and islands between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island overnight.

Areas of heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, are expected along coastal and adjacent inland areas between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation for the remainder of today and overnight before gradually easing during Friday as the cyclone moves away from the coast. The Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall and damaging winds for areas outside the cyclone warning area has been cancelled.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal areas between Coen and Cape Tribulation during today and Friday with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors in case this scenario occurs.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 13.6S 145.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 13.4S 145.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.3S 147.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 13.2S 152.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
====================
CIMSS winds at 00Z continue to depict 20 to 30 knots of easterly shear over tropical cyclone Nathan. This has been evident in today's visible satellite imagery showing the deep convection for the most part displaced to the west of the low level center.

Similarly, this structure has been depicted in microwave imagery with the mid level center to be displaced from the low level circulation center. The latest microwave image at 0531Z indicates that the cyclone has become slow moving.

Intensity is maintained at 50 knots 10 minute mean based on the Dvorak analysis. The center lies within the deep convection so a shear pattern would give DT 3.5. A D- trend gives a MET of 4.0 based on better definition and tighter low level cloud lines. However PAT is adjusted to 3.5. Final T 3.5.

From tonight the mid-level ridge steering the system to the west-southwest will break down ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west, and the steering pattern will change to push the system east overnight Thursday or on Friday. The east northeasterly shear is prognosed to decrease with the erosion of the mid-level ridge so the main intensification in the forecast period has been reserved for after 1200 UTC Thursday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (T1503)
15:00 PM JST March 12 2015
=================================
Near Marshall Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bavi (994 hPa) located at 7.8N 166.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 9.8N 160.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
48 HRS: 12.0N 152.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Truks (Chuuk)
72 HRS: 13.2N 146.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
106. Hugo5
Bavi is about to strengthen significantly in the next 24 hours. You can see in sat that it is kicking off a llc to the north and associating a new one under the ULC. this combined with above average water temps that extend deep down should do the trick. I do not agree with the forecast of just upper level tropical storm/cat1. I believe it will be a strong cat 1 storm, brushing cat 2 possibly.
A pop-up thunderstorm brought me 0.51" around 4:30 AM this morning. Wasn't expecting that! We needed the rain though, so I'll take it.
Good morning, folks.


Source and more: Vanuatu Meteorological Services

Cyclone Pam: Vanuatu prepares for possible evacuations as storm forecast to reach category five
abc.net.au, Updated 25 minutes ago
Authorities in Vanuatu are preparing for potential evacuations ahead of the arrival of a powerful cyclone which is expected to reach category five status overnight.
David Gibson, acting director of Vanuatu's meteorological department, said consistent forecasts were pointing to Pam intensifying into a category five storm.
"This is the first time that we will experience such cyclonic intensity if it eventuates based on the forecast track," he told the ABC.
"All preparations are underway to inform everybody about this.
"If the forecast track keeps further to the east, then we may get some gales, but if it changes and moves much closer, more southward, there is a possibility that we may get more damaging storms and storm-force winds for the central and southern islands." ...


'Mean, ugly and potentially devastating' - Cyclone Pam is on the way
Published: 1:30PM Thursday March 12, 2015 Source: ONE News
The expat community in Port Vila is very concerned for their families' safety as a menacing cyclone bears down on Vanuatu.
A Kiwi working in the capital says while many people have been evacuated, it has been difficult because of the limited flights to New Zealand.
Stuart Beren, who has lived in Vanuatu for two years, says his wife and two children flew back to New Zealand in the lead-up to Cyclone Pam, along with many others.
Employees in his office have been allowed to go home early today, in order to prepare their homes, buy supplies and get cash out in preparation for the storm.
Mr Beren says many people were shocked at finding out this afternoon just how severe the cyclone is expected to be, with predictions it may reach the strongest category five.
Port Vila is expected to feel the brunt of it and authorities are preparing evacuation centres for tens of thousands of people but much of the Pacific is braced for one of the worst cyclones on record. At its centre winds of more than 300 hundred kilometres an hour are expected along with 11 metre waves.
"That's a mean beast," ONE News weather presenter Dan Corbett says. "It will reach its peak in the next 24-36 hours but is going to be rather mean, rather ugly and rather devastating, potentially."
Corbett says the latest forecast tracks have the actual centre moving to the east of the islands of Vanuatu but are "a little bit too close for comfort". ...



All at once: here's the 24h loop.
Just as a little eye candy for your breakfast: "Friedhelm" in the North Atlantic:






And the eye candy below from Florida has made it into German morning news as well :-)
Photo of enormous alligator at Englewood golf course goes viral


Photo of alligator via Myakka Pines Golf Club Facebook page
Quoting 98. MaxWeather:


HURRICANE SEASON 2015

The 19th prediction, comes from Areadersincewilma, the most recent one listed.

I would like to have an update for the upcoming Ides of March (March 15), hoping I could add in several more predictions.
Now we are getting halfway into the month, the time for hurricanes in our North Atlantic basin is fast approaching.

Who is ready?
Yes, you can make changes to your numbers if you want to.


Hey Max... I am going with 9/6/2
I know there is a major focus on Pam going on right now, but I've just got to comment on the original blog post by Mr. Henson.

Wow. FOUR all-time heat records in the west, and FOUR nearly all-time heat records.

Meanwhile, THIRTEEN states in the east were within 5 years of an all-time cold record.

Now if that doesn't indicate something odd and kinky (jet-stream patterns, not S/M dens) is up with weather patterns, I don't know what will.

Thanks for this great post, Mr. Henson.
Quoting 111. barbamz:

And the eye candy below from Florida has made it into German morning news as well :-)
Photo of enormous alligator at Englewood golf course goes viral


Photo of alligator via Myakka Pines Golf Club Facebook page


Holy Moses! I detect an Alligatornado franchise potential.
Quoting 113. LongIslandBeaches:

I know there is a major focus on Pam going on right now, but I've just got to comment on the original blog post by Mr. Henson. [...]
Thanks for this great post, Mr. Henson.

BTW, here are the February temperature anomalies worldwide with a lot of red in a percentile map:


And here the latest cloud top temperature loop of Pam: feathery expansion in the latest frames doesn't forebode anything good, as far as I know:
Quoting LongIslandBeaches:


Holy Moses! I detect an Alligatornado franchise potential.


Shhh!!!! LOL. You know Asylum is watching this blog.
Gator burgers, anyone????
Quoting 117. airman45:

Gator burgers, anyone????
Gator nuggets! Mmm.
Strongest MJO since 1997 and maybe even stronger than the one that spurred the Super El-Nino in March 1997.

At last, springlike weather has arrived with warmth that seemed so far away last week! Of course, spring also means showers and those come for nearly a 24 hour stay starting late Friday. So put off those outdoor plans until Sunday when we should see sun return, albeit not as warm as today. However, for gardeners itching to get out there best to hold off as another half inch or better of rain this weekend keeps soils too soggy to be disturbed.
Natures heat distribution machine is working
Quoting 121. Abacosurf:

Natures heat distribution machine is working



This is all in response to a large area of intense upward motion that is likely to set up a Strong El-Nino this Summer. I gotta tell you many on here that mocked me back in January with page after page of attacks will likely be in hiding once this El-Nino comes full circle in about 6 to 8 weeks. CFSv2 was the first to pick on this back in October then the Euro followed in December, and now the rest of the models are following. Not that I know everything but I know enough to know that the epic bust in El-Nino of 2014 was a bad sign for 2015 as I knew it was coming as it took a large over taking of the atmosphere to get us out of this cold PDO period we have been in for many years to warm PDO period.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
7:54 PM WST March 12 2015
=====================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three (976 hPa) located at 21.1S 114.2E or 90 kilometers north of Exmouth and 115 kilometers west northwest of Onslow has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 14 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity; T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is rapidly approaching the west Pilbara coast. The cyclone center will be in the vicinity of Exmouth later tonight and then continue to move generally southwards.

It is still possible that Olwyn may track over water to the west of Exmouth and retain cyclone intensity for longer. In that scenario communities along the Gascoyne coast will experience much stronger winds than if it tracks just inland from the coast. Regardless of whether it is over water or land, as it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.
Hazards:

Gales with gusts to 110 km/h are currently being experienced along the western Pilbara coast. DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 165 km/h are expected to develop along the western Pilbara coast including Onslow and Exmouth during Thursday evening and may extend inland to Nanutarra.

Late Thursday evening or early Friday morning VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/h are expected to develop near the west Pilbara coast, most likely between Onslow and Exmouth, as the cyclone approaches the coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may extend to Coral Bay early Friday morning. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h may extend to Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon from Friday morning.

Residents between Mardie and Exmouth are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is likely to develop over the western Pilbara and northern Gascoyne during Thursday and continue into Friday. Heavy rainfall will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 23.9S 113.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 26.7S 113.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 35.0S 118.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 39.3S 123.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
A ragged, elongated eye has been apparent on infrared and visible imagery most of the day. The system is also being tracked on radar so confidence in the position is high.

Dvorak: Eye analysis using recent enhanced infrared imagery has a center embedded in LG, yielding DT=5.0. Eye has remained ragged/elongated and so eye adjust is -0.5 giving DT of 4.5. A trend of D+ was assigned so MET is now 4.5. DT=FT=4.5. ADT is fluctuating depending in scene type being applied. No recent SATCON guidance is available. Intensity is set at at 65knots [10-min mean].

Olwyn is located just to the north of the NW Cape of Western Australia. The system is moving rapidly south southwest and is likely to pass down the western side of the NW Cape and along the west coast.The weakening of Olwyn will depend on whether the system is located over land or further west over the ocean. If the system does remain over the ocean then wind impacts down the west coast will be much greater.

The range of numerical weather prediction tracks has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards the south over the next 12 to 24 hours. After this the system turns to the south southeast and increases in speed. Olwyn is likely to undergo ETT due to interaction with an approaching trough and retain significant wind strength into higher latitudes. Heavy rain and squally winds are possible over a large part of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Roebourne to Geraldton, including Karratha, Barrow Island, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and adjacent inland parts of the western Pilbara, western Gascoyne and western Central West Districts

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from Geraldton to Jurien Bay and extending inland to Paynes Find
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (T1503)
21:00 PM JST March 12 2015
=================================
Marshall Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bavi (994 hPa) located at 8.3N 163.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 10.5N 157.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
48 HRS: 12.6N 150.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Truks (Chuuk)
72 HRS: 13.1N 143.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
Good Morning. Here is the SPC Short Term Forecast for Conus today; some copious rain and a flash flood threat for many parts of the Gulf Coast and MS Delta region:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2015

Valid 12Z Thu Mar 12 2015 - 12Z Sat Mar 14 2015

...Flash flooding possible for portions of the lower and middle
Mississippi valley and Ohio valley...

...High temperatures 20 to 40 degrees above average are forecast for
portions of the northern and central plains and Midwest...

A slow-moving low pressure system at the surface and the upper-levels will
continue to bring scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to
much of the south central and southeastern U.S. today. Moisture streaming
into the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi valley today will result in
widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce heavy rain
and the possibility of flash flooding.
This area of widespread rain and
thunderstorms will shift northward into the Ohio valley and eventually
into the Mid-Atlantic states tonight into Friday.

An upper-level disturbance crossing the western U.S. will bring scattered
rain and snow to much of the Intermountain West today. Scattered rain and
snow showers will begin to decrease in coverage early Friday morning as
the upper-level disturbance moves away from the region. Another
upper-level disturbance and the associated surface frontal system will
bring scattered rain and snow showers to portions of the Upper Great Lakes
late Friday into Saturday.

Temperatures are forecast to be well above average today across much of
the western and central U.S. The northern and central plains and the
Midwest will see temperatures as much as 20 to 40 degrees above average
today. The above average temperatures will continue into Friday where
temperatures of 15 to 25 degrees above average are forecast.




Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
10:55 PM EST March 12 2015
=====================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 13.8S 145.0E or 65 kilometers northeast of Cape Melville and 190 kilometers north of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 2 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Cyclone Nathan has become slow moving off the northeast Queensland coast between Coen and Cape Flattery. It is expected to begin moving away from the coast during Friday.

GALES currently extend out to approximately 160 kilometers from the center to the north of the system and about 90 kilometers to the south of the system. GALES are likely about coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island tonight and could develop north towards Lockhart River or south to Cape Tribulation overnight or during Friday depending on the track the cyclone takes.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometers of the center during Friday morning and could begin to affect coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS currently extend out to 70 kilometers from the center and could develop about the coast and islands between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island overnight or during Friday morning.

Areas of heavy rain will continue about parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts overnight before gradually easing during Friday as the cyclone moves away from the coast. A Flood Watch is current for North Tropical Coast catchments north of Innisfail and some Flood Warnings are also current, refer to these products for further details.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Cape Flattery during Friday with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors in case this scenario occurs.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 13.5S 145.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS 13.3S 145.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.5S 148.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 114.1S 153.0E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
===========================
The development of tropical cyclone Nathan has been fairly steady during the last 24 hours with very deep convection continuing to build around the low level center despite the evident easterly wind shear. The CIMMS vertical wind shear product continues to depict around 20-30 knots of easterly shear across the system. Microwave imagery also supports the presence of moderate to strong easterly shear with a westward tilting system evident when comparing the 36-37GHz to 85-91GHz images.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a shear pattern with the low level center situated underneath the deep convection, giving a DT of 3.5. MET and PAT were both 3.5. FT based on DT as there is good confidence in the location of the low level center under the deep convection. Depsite this Dvorak analysis, the mean wind of the system was increased to 55 knots based on the latest ascending ASCAT-B image at 1121UTC, which showed an area of 55 knot wind near the center.

Recent microwave imagery continue to indicate that tropical cyclone Nathan is still moving slowly towards the west-northwest, but it is anticipated that overnight the mid-level ridge currently steering the system will break down ahead of an upper trough moving across eastern Australia. As a result, it is expected that the steering pattern will shift and lead to the system adopting more of an eastwards track during Friday.

Most of the computer model guidance indicate that the vertical wind shear should decrease during Friday with the erosion of the mid-level ridge and the approach of the upper trough, which should therefore allow the system to intensify as it begins to make its way back offshore.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lockhart River to Cape Tribulation
Quoting 122. StormTrackerScott:



This is all in response to a large area of intense upward motion that is likely to set up a Strong El-Nino this Summer. I gotta tell you many on here that mocked me back in January with page after page of attacks will likely be in hiding once this El-Nino comes full circle in about 6 to 8 weeks. CFSv2 was the first to pick on this back in October then the Euro followed in December, and now the rest of the models are following. Not that I know everything but I know enough to know that the epic bust in El-Nino of 2014 was a bad sign for 2015 as I knew it was coming as it took a large over taking of the atmosphere to get us out of this cold PDO period we have been in for many years to warm PDO period.
Good morning Scott...Just remember that that not everyone was knocking you..:)..One thing of note is that the upward pulse is expected to diminish quickly before the International Date Line. So Nino most likely get the same momentum as if pulse was strong all the way across...Literally off the chart tho..By the way, did you see the AO.?





@philklotzbach
Westerly wind event underway strongest in magnitude in the central Pacific since 1997 according to NCEP Reanalysis
.

For those who missed this story, 11 US military personnel (the Crew and Marine Special Forces troops) on a training exercise in the Florida Panhandle were killed on Tuesday evening when their chopper went down. Some of the best US special forces personnel train at the various bases in this region and in the Gulf. Condolences to the Families. Noting the issue as fog has been hindering the early morning searches and now a big patch of rain is heading into the region where they are still trying to recover remains and wreckage:

Human remains washed ashore Wednesday, as officials continued their search for seven Marines and four soldiers in waters off the Florida Panhandle, where a military helicopter had crashed during a training exercise.

We have confirmed that we have had some human remains wash ashore in the area where our search and rescue team have begun a larger scale operation, Andrew Bourland, a spokesman for the Eglin Air Force Base, told The Washington Post.

Bourland also said that debris from the aircraft had been located.

The Army UH-60 Black Hawk is believed to have gone down in the water and foggy conditions were reported in the area at the time of the crash, though it is too soon to say what might have caused the mishap.


Link
Quoting 128. hydrus:

Good morning Scott...Just remember that that not everyone was knocking you..:)..One thing of note is that the upward pulse is expected to diminish quickly before the International Date Line. So Nino most likely get the same momentum as if pulse was strong all the way across...Literally off the chart tho..By the way, did you see the AO.?








Michael Ventrice retweeted
WSI Energy Weather @WSI_Energy · Mar 9
Another fascinating tidbit- the AO index hit 3 sigma, the 2nd highest March value dating back to 1948. #1 was in 1997


132. txjac
Quoting 114. LongIslandBeaches:



Holy Moses! I detect an Alligatornado franchise potential.


Wow ...looks like he's been eating the golfers!
Quoting tampabaymatt:
A pop-up thunderstorm brought me 0.51" around 4:30 AM this morning. Wasn't expecting that! We needed the rain though, so I'll take it.


That was really odd to get that type of storm in the middle of the night in mid March.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
For those who missed this story, 11 US military personnel (the Crew and Marine Special Forces troops) on a training exercise in the Florida Panhandle were killed on Tuesday evening when their chopper went down. Some of the best US special forces personnel train at the various bases in this region and in the Gulf. Condolences to the Families. Noting the issue as fog has been hindering the early morning searches and now a big patch of rain is heading into the region where they are still trying to recover remains and wreckage:

Human remains washed ashore Wednesday, as officials continued their search for seven Marines and four soldiers in waters off the Florida Panhandle, where a military helicopter had crashed during a training exercise.

We have confirmed that we have had some human remains wash ashore in the area where our search and rescue team have begun a larger scale operation, Andrew Bourland, a spokesman for the Eglin Air Force Base, told The Washington Post.

Bourland also said that debris from the aircraft had been located.

The Army UH-60 Black Hawk is believed to have gone down in the water and foggy conditions were reported in the area at the time of the crash, though it is too soon to say what might have caused the mishap.


Link
Sad news. It was apparently a four man crew on a Louisiana National Guard Blackhawk and seven Marines from the Special Operation Command out of Eglin. It's been foggy that last two nights here, but that doesn't explain a single helicopter crash over open water. It is still being run as a search and rescue operation so I can only hope someone made it out.
I gotta tell you many on here that mocked me back in January with page after page of attacks will likely be in hiding once this El-Nino comes full circle in about 6 to 8 weeks. CFSv2 was the first to pick on this back in October then the Euro followed in December, and now the rest of the models are following. Not that I know everything but I know enough to know that the epic bust in El-Nino of 2014 was a bad sign for 2015 as I knew it was coming as it took a large over taking of the atmosphere to get us out of this cold PDO period we have been in for many years to warm PDO period.


You're joking right? You cry wolf for a year and a half and now you say you are right and rip everyone else for criticizing you. And you wonder why people get on you......
Quoting 134. sar2401:

Sad news. It was apparently a four man crew on a Louisiana National Guard Blackhawk and seven Marines from the Special Operation Command out of Eglin. It's been foggy that last two nights here, but that doesn't explain a single helicopter crash over open water. It is still being run as a search and rescue operation so I can only hope someone made it out.

I am hoping the same thing.  Those folks are so well trained that water is one of their natural environments and if they had time (knew as the chopper was going in before hitting the water), I was expecting survivors.  We/Public does not know enough at this point whether the Chopper went down from altitude with a shot at recovery and bracing for impact or if the Chopper was flying at low altitude with little warning before the impact.  A huge tragedy all the way around. 
Quoting 135. jrweatherman:

I gotta tell you many on here that mocked me back in January with page after page of attacks will likely be in hiding once this El-Nino comes full circle in about 6 to 8 weeks. CFSv2 was the first to pick on this back in October then the Euro followed in December, and now the rest of the models are following. Not that I know everything but I know enough to know that the epic bust in El-Nino of 2014 was a bad sign for 2015 as I knew it was coming as it took a large over taking of the atmosphere to get us out of this cold PDO period we have been in for many years to warm PDO period.


You're joking right? You cry wolf for a year and a half and now you say you are right and rip everyone else for criticizing you. And you wonder why people get on you......


Nobody anticipating an El Nino over the last year has been "crying wolf". The westerly wind bursts, the series of downwelling kelvin waves, one after the other, the increasing nino indicies - all of these things were telling a similar story. You don't honestly think that the expectation of these factors to bring something to fruition was simply a wild-ass guess do you? Why even have observations of these things if we can't make predictions from them?
139. VR46L
Cute and overlooked

Olwyn


TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 169.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT


Pam's almost a category 5!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:

I am hoping the same thing.  Those folks are so well trained that water is one of their natural environments and if they had time (knew as the chopper was going in before hitting the water), I was expecting survivors.  We/Public does not know enough at this point whether the Chopper went down from altitude with a shot at recovery and bracing for impact or if the Chopper was flying at low altitude with little warning before the impact.  A huge tragedy all the way around. 
I was down there two years ago during one of these big training exercises watching some nighttime low altitude insertions and recoveries. I doubt that whatever happened occurred at altitude since everything I saw was nape of the earth flying. The pilots were probably using night vision goggles, and that can get very disorienting in fog. The LA National Guard until had a lot of overseas experience but I obviously don't know anything about the pilots that were flying this ship. The Marines in the SOC train as they fight, meaning they'll have training in some pretty bad weather. In that kind of environment, some casualties are inevitable. How's visibility there now? The fog just lifted here.



Pinhole eye in the making? See the double eye at the beginning of the loop? Pam made a southwesterly turn last night.
JTWC forecasting Pam to 150 kts


24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.1S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT


Link
Quoting 94. Dakster:

Who will let us know when it becomes a pin hole eye?

Gearts has us covered for the dual eyes.



Dak, it looks like there's going to be a pinhole eye within a few hours!
I am in the Big Bend and had some fog on I-10 this morning but I do not know what the fog is like this morning on the coast in the Panhandle but the rain is starting to move into the search area.

Some high tops on the development in the GOM.
Quoting CuriousAboutClimate:


Nobody anticipating an El Nino over the last year has been "crying wolf". The westerly wind bursts, the series of downwelling kelvin waves, one after the other, the increasing nino indicies - all of these things were telling a similar story. You don't honestly think that the expectation of these factors to bring something to fruition was simply a wild-ass guess do you? Why even have observations of these things if we can't make predictions from them?
So that means if I say it's going to rain at my house for a year straight, but it doesn't rain, and then, one day, it actually does rain, I was right all along? There's a big difference between prediction and certainty. I never heard one pro say there was a 100% chance of an El Nino last year. I did hear that from amateurs, and not just Scott. Never fall in love with a forecast or a vacant lot. Both of them are likely to change in the future.
149. JRRP
2014

2015
Impressive.

Tropical Cyclone Olwyn conditions at Exmouth, WA, AU | 12 03 2015

Published on Mar 12, 2015
SHARE this VIDEO if you want to know the people
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I am in the Big Bend and had some fog on I-10 this morning but I do not know what the fog is like this morning on the coast in the Panhandle but the rain is starting to move into the search area.

Pensacola NAS is still reporting fog with a visibility of 1/2 mile. Fort Walton Beach, which I believe is closer to the search area, is reporting overcast with a visibility of 10 miles. That's not great search weather but it's tolerable. The blob offshore doesn't really have much rain associated with it now, but what rain it does have is more of a light rain with mist, which makes for some bad search conditions. At least the military has more or less unlimited manpower and equipment they can draw from for the search. I'm just glad I'm retired.
Quoting 148. sar2401:

So that means if I say it's going to rain at my house for a year straight, but it doesn't rain, and then, one day, it actually does rain, I was right all along? There's a big difference between prediction and certainty. I never heard one pro say there was a 100% chance of an El Nino last year. I did hear that from amateurs, and not just Scott. Never fall in love with a forecast or a vacant lot. Both of them are likely to change in the future.


that's a poor analogy and is not what happened at all. it was not some wild guess that "just so happened" to occur, out of luck. the indicators were there. nobody expecting el nino was dong anything other than looking at the indicators. so again, I ask, what is the point of observing these things if we can't make predictions from them? why even have them at all?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Impressive.



No doubt... did quite well filtering out that dry air in order to get to this point.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #21
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
9:58 PM WST March 12 2015
=====================================

At 10:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three located at 21.2S 114.0E or 75 kilometers north of Exmouth and 215 kilometers north of Coral Bay has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 10 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is approaching the west Pilbara coast. The cyclone center will be in the vicinity of Exmouth later tonight and then continue to move generally southwards.

Olwyn may track over water to the west of Exmouth and retain cyclone intensity for a longer time. In that scenario communities along the Gascoyne coast will experience much stronger winds than if it tracks just inland from the coast. Regardless of whether it is over water or land, as it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

Gales with gusts to 110 km/h are currently being experienced along the western Pilbara coast. DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 165 kilometres are occurring along the western Pilbara coast at Onslow and are likely to be occurring at Exmouth and may extend inland to Nanutarra.

Late Thursday evening or early Friday morning VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/h are expected to develop near the west Pilbara coast, most likely near Exmouth, as the cyclone approaches the coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may extend to Coral Bay early Friday morning. DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 125 km/h may extend to Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon from Friday morning.

Residents between Mardie around to Coral Bay, including Exmouth are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone center crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is occurring over the western Pilbara and is expected to extend to the northern Gascoyne during Friday. Heavy rainfall will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Roebourne to Jurien Bay and inland to Paynes Find, including Karratha, Barrow Island, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and adjacent inland parts of the western Pilbara, western Gascoyne and northern Central West Districts
Quoting 133. luvtogolf:



That was really odd to get that type of storm in the middle of the night in mid March.
I got one at 3:30 am last night. I was also watching the lightning to the east just after sunset... This weather reminds me of July.
Quoting luvtogolf:


That was really odd to get that type of storm in the middle of the night in mid March.
Did you actually see/hear lightning or thunder? I've been trying to figure out how well this lightning detector software works, and there was no lightning detected anywhere near Tampa after about 8:30 last night.
Quoting sar2401:
Did you actually see/hear lightning or thunder? I've been trying to figure out how well this lightning detector software works, and there was no lightning detected anywhere near Tampa after about 8:30 last night.


I didn't get lightning just a nice rain. Very unusual for west Florida for rain to come from the SE at that time of night in March.
Quoting CuriousAboutClimate:


that's a poor analogy and is not what happened at all. it was not some wild guess that "just so happened" to occur, out of luck. the indicators were there. nobody expecting el nino was dong anything other than looking at the indicators. so again, I ask, what is the point of observing these things if we can't make predictions from them? why even have them at all?
Last January, the probability of an El Nino still looked reasonably high. Last June, it clearly looked a lot less probable. By last September, it was apparent, with all the indicators used to predict El Nino, it wasn't going to happen in 2014. If I continued to cherry pick indicators that supported my El Nino prediction while denying all the ones that didn't, am I still forecasting or just hoping against hope that magic will happen? Now we are right back at the spring barrier, when we know that forecasts will have a high potential not to be accurate, and we're right back at it again. Deciding in advance what you want to happen and then finding things that support what you want is not forecasting.
Quoting luvtogolf:


I didn't get lightning just a nice rain. Very unusual for west Florida for rain to come from the SE at that time of night in March.
OK, that makes sense, since there were some areas of showers there overnight. I never know with Florida, which seems to get weather that no one else does, what really happens sometimes. I got the feeling that "thunderstorm" was being used to describe rain instead of any actual lightning or thunder.

Edit: There was lightning from storms in the Gulf early this morning, so someone could have seen "heat lightning". I was trying to determine if any convection made it onshore.
Quoting luvtogolf:


I didn't get lightning just a nice rain. Very unusual for west Florida for rain to come from the SE at that time of night in March.


X2-FLARE AND RADIO BLACKOUT: All week long, sunspot AR2297 has been crackling with solar flares. Yesterday it produced a really big one. On March 11th at 16:22 UT (09:22 PDT), Earth orbiting-satellites detected an X2-class flare. The blast zone was larger than Earth itself.
Flash flood warnings in NW LA/Texarkana areas:

164. wxmod
5.1 earthquake 51km ESE of Namie, Japan 2015-03-12 04:02:40 UTC-07:00

near fukushima
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #22
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY FIVE (11F)
0:00 AM FST March 13 2015
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category Five (921 hPa) located at 14.2S 169.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhance infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
150 NM from the center elsewhere

Eye warming and convective tops cooling further past 12 hours. System lies in a moderate sheared environment with strong upper divergence. Outflow good. Pam is being steered southwest by a northeast deep layer mean wind flow. Cyclonic circulation extends to 250 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C

Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with OW eye, cold dark grey surround, yields DT=7.0, MET=7.0, PT=6.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and move it southwest and then southeastwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 15.9S 169.4E - 125 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS 18.0S 169.5E - 130 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS 23.9S 172.3E - 130 knots (CAT 5)
Quoting 153. CuriousAboutClimate:



that's a poor analogy and is not what happened at all. it was not some wild guess that "just so happened" to occur, out of luck. the indicators were there. nobody expecting el nino was dong anything other than looking at the indicators. so again, I ask, what is the point of observing these things if we can't make predictions from them? why even have them at all?


Yup and this time some of these ominous relations in the atmosphere between what is going this March and that of March 1997 is being pointed out by many people from the NHC, Colorado State, and WSI. Will we get a strong El-Nino who knows but I suspect atleast a moderate event is in the cards this summer maybe strong if the atmosphere continues its overall trend like it has the last 3 months. One cannot deny the relation between this March and March of 1997 as there are many similarities infact even more so in some cases than in 1997 which is even more disturbing. Again nothing is ever given but if these factors continue then we are in for a interesting few months ahead.
Last January, the probability of an El Nino still looked reasonably high. Last June, it clearly looked a lot less probable. By last September, it was apparent, with all the indicators used to predict El Nino, it wasn't going to happen in 2014. If I continued to cherry pick indicators that supported my El Nino prediction while denying all the ones that didn't, am I still forecasting or just hoping against hope that magic will happen? Now we are right back at the spring barrier, when we know that forecasts will have a high potential not to be accurate, and we're right back at it again. Deciding in advance what you want to happen and then finding things that support what you want is not forecasting.

it is to some...and that's about the best they can do...so we have to live with it
Atlantic MDR Vs Nino Regions :

Brilliant, just brilliant !!



You can see a little area of convergence near Tampa partially associated with the disturbance in the GOM. We're lucky those storms out in the central GOM aren't over land.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
901 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WILDWOOD...THICKET...SOUR LAKE...
SILSBEE...SARATOGA...LUMBERTON...KOUNTZE
...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 855 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOODING FROM A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AT
20 MPH ACROSS HARDIN COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW 3 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF HARDIN COUNTY DURING
THE NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OF ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO VILLAGE
MILLS...HONEY ISLAND AND BATSON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.
Accurate long-term forecasting for weather related events is a tough proposition and one of the reasons we use computer modelling to try and get us in the ball-park (and not crystal balls-real or imagined) . After that, it boils down to short term fine tuning based upon real time conditions. Just the nature of the beast and fun to watch how it all turns out over time.
Quoting 157. sar2401:

Did you actually see/hear lightning or thunder? I've been trying to figure out how well this lightning detector software works, and there was no lightning detected anywhere near Tampa after about 8:30 last night.


I heard a few rumblings of thunder. It was not anything significant, but I did hear a few distinct rumbles of thunder. That is what woke me up at 4:30 AM. Very odd to get that type of storm at that time of the day in mid-March. It's been very warm here lately with summer-like cumulus clouds forming due to diurnal heating. It had not rained at my house since 2/28, so the rain was welcomed.
Michael Ventrice retweeted
David Zierden @FLClimateCenter · 5m 5 minutes ago

The "twins" are going to trigger a strong resurgence of #ElNino! @MJVentrice @MichaelRLowry
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I heard a few rumblings of thunder. It was not anything significant, but I did hear a few distinct rumbles of thunder. That is what woke me up at 4:30 AM. Very odd to get that type of storm at that time of the day in mid-March. It's been very warm here lately with summer-like cumulus clouds forming due to diurnal heating. It had not rained at my house since 2/28, so the rain was welcomed.


We had a few small showers fire off late yesterday in my area.
Still no rain this month at the house. We've had .05" in the city.

As I mentioned, up in the Tampa area and just to the north you have some convergence going on. There's a S.E. flow across the southern half of Florida interacting with a weak boundary across central Florida.
Nice line of clouds across central Florida associated with this convergence zone.
She's backbuilding. We've got debris.

Quoting 174. Sfloridacat5:



We had a few small showers fire off late yesterday in my area.
Still no rain this month at the house. We've had .05" in the city.

As I mentioned, up in the Tampa area and just to the north you have some convergence going on. There's a S.E. flow across the southern half of Florida interacting with a weak boundary across central Florida.
Nice line of clouds across central Florida associated with this convergence zone.


We had some solid thunderstorms here across Seminole County yesterday with some good cloud to ground strikes. Weird though 1.27" in Longwood but at my house on the Orange/Seminole Sounty line I had zero in the rain bucket just dark clouds and thunder.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
You can see a little area of convergence near Tampa partially associated with the disturbance in the GOM. We're lucky those storms out in the central GOM aren't over land.
That same low has now been in the Gulf almost three days. It's deepened since yesterday (1012 vs 1018) and is starting to kick off some more convection in the central Gulf although not as much as yesterday. Now it looks like it will finally start to move north later this evening. The current path calls for it to go over LA, AR, and then hang a right into the Ohio Valley. The closest approach it makes to Alabama is the far NW part of the state. It will be dragging a fair bit of moisture with it, so areas near the low may have some flash flooding issues. Unfortunately, this is absolutely the worst path for me in terms of rain. With all the rain in the SE, I've still yet to get a drop. All I can hope for at this point is the low to take a more easterly path than what's currently forecast. The evolution of this setup since Sunday is not even close to what was originally forecast so maybe this one is wrong also. I've only had 0.29" of rain in the last three weeks, and a dry spring is not what the farmers here need.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I heard a few rumblings of thunder. It was not anything significant, but I did hear a few distinct rumbles of thunder. That is what woke me up at 4:30 AM. Very odd to get that type of storm at that time of the day in mid-March. It's been very warm here lately with summer-like cumulus clouds forming due to diurnal heating. It had not rained at my house since 2/28, so the rain was welcomed.
Hmm...this is not the first time that observers there have reported thunder but the lightning detector doesn't pick up anything. There has to be lightning somewhere for thunder but something is odd about these isolated strokes, and I suspect the detector is filtering them as interference when it's really lightning. It shows lighting just fine when you have a real storm but it misses these isolated occurrences. I'm going to send an email off to the developers and ask them to look into this.
Quoting 174. Sfloridacat5:



We had a few small showers fire off late yesterday in my area.
Still no rain this month at the house. We've had .05" in the city.

As I mentioned, up in the Tampa area and just to the north you have some convergence going on. There's a S.E. flow across the southern half of Florida interacting with a weak boundary across central Florida.
Nice line of clouds across central Florida associated with this convergence zone.


The 4:30 AM storm gave me 0.51". I was hoping for rain as it's been dry lately and I just put a bunch of new plants down on Monday.
181. etxwx


The rain is finally letting up here in Jasper county, but there's an ongoing flood warning for the rivers in this area as well as the flash flood warning LAbonbon posted in #170:

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
939 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Louisiana...Texas...

Sabine River Near Deweyville
Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake
Calcasieu River Near Glenmora
Neches River Near Town Bluff

The Flood Warning continues for
The Pine Island Bayou Near Sour Lake.
* from this morning until further notice...or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 8:45 AM Thursday the stage was 25.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 28.0 feet by
early Sunday morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At stages near 25.0 feet...Water inundates roads in
lowland areas near the river. Low spots on Old Sour Lake Road are
under water.
Quoting 148. sar2401:

So that means if I say it's going to rain at my house for a year straight, but it doesn't rain, and then, one day, it actually does rain, I was right all along? There's a big difference between prediction and certainty. I never heard one pro say there was a 100% chance of an El Nino last year. I did hear that from amateurs, and not just Scott. Never fall in love with a forecast or a vacant lot. Both of them are likely to change in the future.

I think this analogy doesn't have enough information to be comparable. What were the conditions that caused you to predict rainfall? Were you predicting rainfall on bright sunny days with nary a cloud in the sky, or days that looked and felt like rain. There are times when it may not rain, but that it certainly might is still the most correct forecast.
Front setting up over north Florida.
184. jpsb
"So that means if I say it's going to rain at my house for a year straight"

Well if you are saying PC things then you are never wrong, even if observations indicate you are flat out wrong. So these days it more about what you say and less about being objectively correct.
185. VR46L
Quoting 178. Sfloridacat5:




Going to ask a dumb question ......

what is this map ...

guess its wind ... but no legend to understand it .




Quoting 157. sar2401:

Did you actually see/hear lightning or thunder? I've been trying to figure out how well this lightning detector software works, and there was no lightning detected anywhere near Tampa after about 8:30 last night.
I saw lightning just about sunset to the ESE of Tampa Bay. It was pretty far in the distance and I did not hear thunder. There were convective cumulus from about 4pm on to the E. The 3:30 cell did not have any lightning (from my sleepy observation), but it rained hard enough to wake me up.
Quoting 175. Grothar:

She's backbuilding. We've got debris.





There's a WU blogger by the name of Glochief that lives in Port Vila. He doesn't comment on the main blog, but he's on the live blog on the main page. I'm surprised more people aren't mentioning Pam now that it's probably a category 5 by now and is moving SSW, closer to the islands. Glochief (Chris) said that he saw some thunderstorms so far but he's prepared. He also said that internet coverage is getting spotty as well.
Quoting 144. nrtiwlnvragn:

JTWC forecasting Pam to 150 kts


24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.1S 169.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT


Link

NOAA has the same..
Quoting SouthTampa:
I saw lightning just about sunset to the ESE of Tampa Bay. It was pretty far in the distance and I did not hear thunder. There were convective cumulus from about 4pm on to the E. The 3:30 cell did not have any lightning (from my sleepy observation), but it rained hard enough to wake me up.


I heard a few claps of thunder with a lot of rain here in Hillsborough on 301.

"So that means if I say it's going to rain at my house for a year straight"

Well if you are saying PC things then you are never wrong, even if observations indicate you are flat out wrong. So these days it more about what you say and less about being objectively correct.



jp.....in the context the quoted person meant...you are 100 percent right
Figure 1 gives me pause. I would like to know how it was calculated and what data was used. Either way a 2.8 deg. F gradual rise over 115 years is in the noise.

I have similar issues with how Figure 2 was calculated over the last 115 years, from a data and how it was calculated standpoint. It shows a 10% below average precipitation for this year which is meaningless. Some years are wetter and some years are drier. No conclusions can be drawn from it.
Quoting 191. Sandy82579:

Figure 1 gives me pause. I would like to know how it was calculated and what data was used. Either way a 2.8 deg. F gradual rise over 115 years is in the noise.

I have similar issues with how Figure 2 was calculated over the last 115 years, from a data and how it was calculated standpoint. It shows a 10% below average precipitation for this year which is meaningless. Some years are wetter and some years are drier. No conclusions can be drawn from it.


Regarding Figure 2, note that the article states "Although seven of the last 10 winters have been drier than average nationwide, there is no discernable trend in winter precipitation for the 48 states as a whole"
NOAA Satellites ‏@NOAASatellites 1 Std. Vor 1 Stunde
Via Suomi NPP, a closeup of Tropical Cyclone Pam's eye in the South Pacific.
Quoting 187. TimTheWxMan:




There's a WU blogger by the name of Glochief that lives in Port Vila. He doesn't comment on the main blog, but he's on the live blog on the main page. I'm surprised more people aren't mentioning Pam now that it's probably a category 5 by now and is moving SSW, closer to the islands. Glochief (Chris) said that he saw some thunderstorms so far but he's prepared. He also said that internet coverage is getting spotty as well.

They don't have long before the CDO moves over the island, and with it storm force winds and torrential rain. The edge is only about 100 kms away last time I checked.
Quoting 177. sar2401:

That same low has now been in the Gulf almost three days. It's deepened since yesterday (1012 vs 1018) and is starting to kick off some more convection in the central Gulf although not as much as yesterday. Now it looks like it will finally start to move north later this evening. The current path calls for it to go over LA, AR, and then hang a right into the Ohio Valley. The closest approach it makes to Alabama is the far NW part of the state. It will be dragging a fair bit of moisture with it, so areas near the low may have some flash flooding issues. Unfortunately, this is absolutely the worst path for me in terms of rain. With all the rain in the SE, I've still yet to get a drop. All I can hope for at this point is the low to take a more easterly path than what's currently forecast. The evolution of this setup since Sunday is not even close to what was originally forecast so maybe this one is wrong also. I've only had 0.29" of rain in the last three weeks, and a dry spring is not what the farmers here need.

The low yesterday morning (at 15z) had a pressure of 1012:

Look at the map next to the 36 hour forecast in this image. It is a QPF map. How much do you see for Carbondale?
197. vis0
Apology to Sar2401 (like he's was thinking "its that darn ml-d") as still have not FULLY begun to reset the ml-d. (The first 24 hrs of reset, weather under and around the ml-d's AOI hear in the USofA and its opposite side of the world area go back to a 99% natural wxtrend, so Sar2401 would be getting drenched if the ml-d were resetting)
Found some 'build up' of minimal dust under the ml-d which should not happen, so i'm trying to figure out the 5 W's (why,where...) plus today i (&Sis) also have to take Father for his regular checkup and pushing someone in a wheelchair a mile is a bit of work (insurance had a filing error last year so no ambulette service till ~June)

i might set the ml-d up temporarily by today 201503-11;0100pm EDT, problem is at times the ml-d if not balanced just right wobbles and "falls" (a few inches) to the ground (again, it hovers "quietly" a few inches off the ground as to work tap into Galacsics it cannot come in contact with anything the is grounded to the physical world), nothing breaks but it might trigger a small undesired q-reaction.
I stated the latter "2 times" so Sar2401 anyone in the SE (recent dry wxtrend areas) pay attention in case you notice it seems like 2 times the amount of rain or winds seem to build KEEP AN EYE out to see if its sustained (means ml-d is resetting or just coincidence**)not just gonna go poof (suddenly disappear)



**anyone whom thinks its that ii read some golden 72-120hrs perfect model run pfft,  i'd be nuts to use wx-models to figure out whats next in weather, particularly severe weather
Quoting 4. DDR:

Interesting read Webberweather53
Just as interesting,the poui trees here in Trinidad are flowering early which tells me a wet and early start to our rainy season,most areas here are well above average in rainfall away,hardly a bush fire anywhere.

Quoting 9. weatherbro:



What El Nino years predominantly had a -IOD?


Thanks. (Although you should keep in mind the historical record we're working with here is short) the Australian Bureau of Meteorology identifies 10 -IOD events since 1958, the only -IOD they made note of which was coupled w/ a full-blown El Nino (under the new ONI definition (i.e. not old 1971-2000 climatology) was in 1958. There were other -IOD/ ENSO combos in 1992 & 1993, but no moderate-strong El Ninos, but that doesn't necessarily preclude one from transpiring... We'll have to wait & see how this robust -IOD responds to the seasonally phase locked, easterly propagating Wyrtki jets. On the other hand, the rather dramatic weakening of the upper tropsopheric TEJ (Tropical Easterly Jet, maintained by the meridional upper tropospheric thermal gradient between the Tibet anticyclone and the adjacent Indian Ocean) has weakened substantially due to the multidecadal & comparatively rapid warming of the northern Indian Ocean, favor lower frequency persistence of the -IOD & hence eastern hemisphere interference that has become a customary feature of most modern-day El Ninos...

The zonal extent of the TEJ underwent substantial contraction thru the 1980s, and the core of the TEJ continues to wither away, w/ a decrease in the U 150hpa wind of about 10 m/s since the 1950s, while the TEJ is actually beginning to zonally expand once again over Africa, in concert w/ a wetter African Sahel...


150mb U Wind since 2010, weakening of the TEJ continues...


Also, I'll mention (aside from aforementioned conflict between the North & South Pacific in their multidecadal PDO states & potential E hem/IO interference w/ this upcoming El Nino once the favorable MJO equatorial symmetry abates as we progress further away from the equinox), the current AO/NAM state is not conducive to a returning El Nino which once again, could be teleconnected thru modulation of the Pacific Jet, RWTs, etc. to the increasingly intrusive Indian Ocean?...


It certainly appears the Indian Ocean likely helped incubate the PV, especially earlier this past winter & late in the fall, & this IO forcing helped stunt significant wave/momentum driving/deposition onto the PV that was being imparted thanks the extreme SAI/SCE ...


Eventually the east-based El Nino won out, but even still, the weaker wavenumber 2 Upper Level VP signature remains intact...


Comparing the JFM SLP in first year El Ninos since 1900 that returned for at least a second year vs the top 10 first years w/ the most dramatic flip to a la nina (used 1971-2000 ONI climo) in the following winter, the SLP difference among these sets of years yields the correlated AO SLP pattern, thus highlighting the importance Northern Annular Mode as a primary determinant in the shelf life of an El Nino event.



Along w/ the other aforementioned unfavorable pre-conditions, it will be interesting to see how this El Nino handles this interference as the favorable intraseasonal/seasonal coupling to the downwelling KW, MJO, Weak Zonal SST gradient, etc. abates later this spring & summer, which in all likelihood may be enough to preclude a strong El Nino, and almost certainly will prevent the genesis of a "Super" El Nino as we observed in 1877-78, 1982-83, & 1997-98...
Link
Daylight is still a few hours away, but I'll put this up anyway...Port Vila Harbour webcam
Thursday, March 12, 2015, Hurricane Hal's Storm Surge Blog:
TC Pam Generates Surge Flooding on Tuvalu from ~700 Miles (1125 km) away!
From this morning:

Quoting 184. jpsb:

"So that means if I say it's going to rain at my house for a year straight"

Well if you are saying PC things then you are never wrong, even if observations indicate you are flat out wrong. So these days it more about what you say and less about being objectively correct.

What's politically correct, or incorrect, for that matter, about whether or not it looks there's going to be an el nino? Or if it's going to rain, or if it does or not?
You guys have such a politicized thought process about climate change that you see weather through the same lens. Like I bet you think mostly liberals think it makes sense based on current conditions to predict an el nino, or something.
Most signs point to an el nino. It may not happen, but it will still be the case that most signs were pointing to an el nino.

Quoting 187. TimTheWxMan:




There's a WU blogger by the name of Glochief that lives in Port Vila. He doesn't comment on the main blog, but he's on the live blog on the main page. I'm surprised more people aren't mentioning Pam now that it's probably a category 5 by now and is moving SSW, closer to the islands. Glochief (Chris) said that he saw some thunderstorms so far but he's prepared. He also said that internet coverage is getting spotty as well.

They lost water already...what a bummer...that's worse than losing power/internet, IMHO.
From the TWC site; nice synopsis of the issue of RI versus an eyewall replacement cycle:


Cyclone Pam may continue to intensify through Friday thanks to favorable winds aloft flowing outward from the center of circulation, and warm sea-surface temperatures along its path. Some particularly intense convection showing up on infrared satellite imagery Thursday in the northern half of the eyewall suggested further intensification. 

Pam may undergo a period of rapid intensification (an increase in the maximum sustained winds of at least 30 knots in 24 hours or less) at any time through Friday, a process difficult to forecast due to its dependence on smaller-scale fluctuations of the system's inner-core convection.

Conversely, intense tropical cyclones like Pam typically undergo one or more eyewall replacement cycles, during which a second, outer eyewall forms and contracts inward toward the eye, choking off the old, inner eyewall. During this time, the cyclone's intensity typically weakens a tad. These cycles are also not predicted well by forecast models.

Cyclone Pam looks better than yesterday and is probably in the ballpark of 165mph right now. Further intensification is possible if the eye warms; it has struggled to do so completely so far.

Quoting 205. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cyclone Pam looks better than yesterday and is probably in the ballpark of 165mph right now. Further intensification is possible if the eye warms; it has struggled to do so completely so far.




For you why the eye still struggle?
NOAA is currently sub 900 mb on Pam

20150312 | 1132 | SW-PAC | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | -14.3 | -169.9 | 898 | 140 | 17P | PAM


Link
Quoting 205. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cyclone Pam looks better than yesterday and is probably in the ballpark of 165mph right now. Further intensification is possible if the eye warms; it has struggled to do so completely so far.



It isn't the most classic looking Cat5 with that misshapen eye, but looking at that intense CDO I believe it.
Quoting 201. weathermanwannabe:

From this morning:




If that's accurate, the three small, southernmost islands of Vanuatu will be devastated. These are Erromango (pop 2,000), Tanna (pop 29,000) and Aneiytum (pop 900).
No bueno Hope those folks are ready...or evacuated.

It is not often that you see a tropical storm forecast cone with a predicted Cat 5 for an extended period...........Incredible really.
Pin hole eye may be forming...

Another NOAA tweet:

NOAA Satellites ‏@NOAASatellites
Infrared imagery of Tropical Cyclone #Pam taken by @NASANPP around 1320 UTC (9:20 am EDT) today.
Here are the two most recent Rammb site images; another round of intense convection in the NW eyewall now which is the side approaching the islands (some nice symmetry to the core at the moment as well):



there is a big deal by bloggers and some professional mets concerning the current MJO in the pacific and how it relates to the 97 cycle that brought about the very strong 97/98 El Nino event....well guess what....they're right....about the MJO that is.......in february of 97 just as this february...their was a mjo pulse...and strengthened through march....and before and since....not to be rivaled....well..that is until this year....

so after verifying what these experts already knew....i wanted to know the consequences....the answer...the 97 mjo was outrageously productive in producing the strongest el nino event recorded of modern day

don't believe me....read up from the CPC.....

In contrast, March and April featured an extremely rapid transition to one of the strongest warm episodes of
the century. SSTs increased nearly 1.5°C over the normal annual cycle in the Niño 1+2 region during March (Fig. 24a), and nearly 1.0°-1.5°C over the annual cycle in the Niño 3, Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 regions. In the Niño 4 region this increase occurred during a two-week period and was greater than the entire annual cycle of SST for that region. A second period of very rapid SST increases in the east-central Pacific then occurred during April, as SSTs in both the Niño 3 and Niño 3.4 regions climbed an additional 1°C over that expected from the normal annual cycle. Thus, by mid-April SSTs exceeded 28°C across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Figs. 24b-d ), with values averaging 1°-3°C above normal in all four Niño regions. Area-averaged SSTs in the Niño 3, Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 regions then remained nearly constant at values greater than 28°C throughout the remainder of the year. This warming reflected a nearly complete elimination of the annual cycle in SSTs across most of the equatorial Pacific, which is normally characterized by a peak in temperatures during March-April and a minimum during September-October


so then the question must be asked....is this year responding as in 97......and i reference this from the blurb above...

SSTs increased nearly 1.5°C over the normal annual cycle in the Niño 1+2 region during March


during March (Fig. 24a), and nearly 1.0°-1.5°C over the annual cycle in the Niño 3, Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 regions

and so...when we look to this march...."nowcast" to quote a term.......instead of rapid intensification of the ENSO regions.....we're seeing the exact opposite....all 4 regions are rapidly declining...quite different early results than what the same pattern gave us in 97...

and so i end this post with what i found consistently on internet sites during in my morning persuing the internet about the MJO...and that is....

THERE'S A LOT TO BE LEARNED BETWEEN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MJO AND EL NINO
Quoting 203. LAbonbon:


They lost water already...what a bummer...that's worse than losing power/internet, IMHO.



Already? Not good! However, Chris watched the models closely so he prepared well in advance.


Geography
Location South Pacific Ocean
Archipelago Vanuatu
Area 550 km2 (210 sq mi)
Length 40 km (25 mi)
Width 19 km (11.8 mi)
Highest elevation 1,084 m (3,556 ft)
Highest point Mount Tukosmera
Country
Vanuatu
Province Tafea Province
Largest settlement L%uFFFDnakel
Demographics
Population 28,799 (as of 2009)
Density 94.17 /sq mi)
Ethnic groups Melanesians
Quoting 216. TimTheWxMan:




Already? Not good! However, Chris watched the models closely so he prepared well in advance.

Tim, where is the "live blog" (link?) you've mentioned, please? I was looking for it in vane :-(
Quoting 216. TimTheWxMan:




Already? Not good! However, Chris watched the models closely so he prepared well in advance.

I actually got that from his post. He was hoping it would come on for a bit before the storm hit.
How low can Pam go? Yikes...
Quoting 215. ricderr:

there is a big deal by bloggers and some professional mets concerning the current MJO in the pacific and how it relates to the 97 cycle that brought about the very strong 97/98 El Nino event....well guess what....they're right....about the MJO that is.......in february of 97 just as this february...their was a mjo pulse...and strengthened through march....and before and since....not to be rivaled....well..that is until this year....

so after verifying what these experts already knew....i wanted to know the consequences....the answer...the 97 mjo was outrageously productive in producing the strongest el nino event recorded of modern day

don't believe me....read up from the CPC.....

In contrast, March and April featured an extremely rapid transition to one of the strongest warm episodes of
the century. SSTs increased nearly 1.5°C over the normal annual cycle in the Niño 1+2 region during March (Fig. 24a), and nearly 1.0°-1.5°C over the annual cycle in the Niño 3, Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 regions. In the Niño 4 region this increase occurred during a two-week period and was greater than the entire annual cycle of SST for that region. A second period of very rapid SST increases in the east-central Pacific then occurred during April, as SSTs in both the Niño 3 and Niño 3.4 regions climbed an additional 1°C over that expected from the normal annual cycle. Thus, by mid-April SSTs exceeded 28°C across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Figs. 24b-d ), with values averaging 1°-3°C above normal in all four Niño regions. Area-averaged SSTs in the Niño 3, Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 regions then remained nearly constant at values greater than 28°C throughout the remainder of the year. This warming reflected a nearly complete elimination of the annual cycle in SSTs across most of the equatorial Pacific, which is normally characterized by a peak in temperatures during March-April and a minimum during September-October


so then the question must be asked....is this year responding as in 97......and i reference this from the blurb above...

SSTs increased nearly 1.5°C over the normal annual cycle in the Niño 1+2 region during March


during March (Fig. 24a), and nearly 1.0°-1.5°C over the annual cycle in the Niño 3, Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 regions

and so...when we look to this march...."nowcast" to quote a term.......instead of rapid intensification of the ENSO regions.....we're seeing the exact opposite....all 4 regions are rapidly declining...quite different early results than what the same pattern gave us in 97...

and so i end this post with what i found consistently on internet sites during in my morning persuing the internet about the MJO...and that is....

THERE'S A LOT TO BE LEARNED BETWEEN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MJO AND EL NINO


Yep, even though clearly the MJO amplitude is similar...



..I touched base on some of the glaring issues that may manifest themselves in the coming months in my recent post. There's a lot of ongoing external interference, particularly from the Northern & Southern Annular modes, South Pacific & Indian Oceans which didn't co-exist/interfere w/ nearly the same magnitude in 1997... It would also help if the Hadley Cell expansion would come to a halt. In a general sense, at the rate we're going, we could viably lose ENSO altogether, but that's a discussion for another time...
Quoting 194. Huracan94:


They don't have long before the CDO moves over the island, and with it storm force winds and torrential rain. The edge is only about 100 kms away last time I checked.



Pam's still moving SSW so I wouldn't be surprised if conditions deteriorate within the next 4-6 hours.
Quoting 175. Grothar:

She's backbuilding. We've got debris.




What amazes me are those extremely long structures that can develop off of the outflow, as in this image on the east side. How long is that tendril, and what would cause it to be so uniform?

Oh poo, live image. Structure is gone but question still stands.
dup
Quoting 218. barbamz:


Tim, where is the "live blog" (link?) you've mentioned, please? I was looking for it in vane :-(




Here you go Barb!


Link
Quoting 224. LAbonbon:


Hope Tim doesn't mind me answering for him...

Link




You posted it right before i did. :C
Anyway, getting any flooding? There's some pretty decent rain stalled out in SW Louisiana.
Quoting 226. TimTheWxMan:

Here you go Barb!
Link

Thank you! A hidden secret on WU for me until now :-)
Quoting pablosyn:


For you why the eye still struggle?

Dry air, which has been more prevalent than models thought.
Quoting 227. TimTheWxMan:





You posted it right before i did. :C
Anyway, getting any flooding? There's some pretty decent rain stalled out in SW Louisiana.

Not me. Looking at the radar, there's a bunch of rain to my west (I'm in the 'v' of I-10/I-12). Not sure when it's all said and done how we'll fare, but I'm hoping on the 'light' side.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2015

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR S GA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF N FL/SE AL...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OTHER
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LOW-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER MEXICO AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF THE WRN GULF BASIN AND SRN PLAINS/SW STATES. A SERIES OF
SMALLER-SCALE SPEED MAXIMA ARE ROTATING NWD OVER E TX/WRN LA...AND
ANOTHER WAVE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WILL TRANSLATE NNEWD TO THE NW GULF
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER SPEED MAX OVER THE SRN
GREAT BASIN WILL DIG SSEWD TO NW MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
LOW OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND ALONG THE
TX/LA BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A SEPARATE FRONT SAGS SWWD
ACROSS GA IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

...LA/SW MS THROUGH TONIGHT...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN PERSIST FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO
LA AS OF LATE MORNING. THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD INLAND ACROSS LA AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NWD...AND THIS SAME
CORRIDOR LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE ZONE
OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND STRONGER SLY FLOW ALOFT. AS MID-UPPER 60S
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BECOME ESTABLISHED INLAND...THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
IN AN ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. FARTHER E IN
SE MS/SW AL...SURFACE HEATING WILL BE TEMPERED BY PERSISTENT
CLOUDS...WHICH WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY. ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS IN LA...SO THE PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE STORMS
APPEAR TO BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MAINTAINING WIND/TORNADO
PROBABILITIES FOR SE MS/SW AL.

...S GA/N FL THIS AFTERNOON...
BREAKS IN THE CIRRUS WILL ALLOW STRONGER SURFACE HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF N FL/S GA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE
TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK...BUT DCAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONT BACKING SWWD ACROSS GA.

..THOMPSON/GLEASON.. 03/12/2015
Quoting 221. Webberweather53:



Yep, even though clearly the MJO amplitude is similar...



..I touched base on some of the glaring issues that may manifest themselves in the coming months in my recent post. There's a lot of ongoing external interference, particularly from the Northern & Southern Annular modes, South Pacific & Indian Oceans which didn't co-exist/interfere w/ nearly the same magnitude in 1997... It would also help if the Hadley Cell expansion would come to a halt. In a general sense, at the rate we're going, we could viably lose ENSO altogether, but that's a discussion for another time...



SAR>>>>>>SAR>>>>>look>>>>>> I USED THE QUOTE FEATURE........


In a general sense, at the rate we're going, we could viably lose ENSO altogether, but that's a discussion for another time

you know...this was the common wisdom not that long ago
233. MahFL
Quoting 134. sar2401:

Sad news. It was apparently a four man crew on a Louisiana National Guard Blackhawk and seven Marines from the Special Operation Command out of Eglin. It's been foggy that last two nights here, but that doesn't explain a single helicopter crash over open water. It is still being run as a search and rescue operation so I can only hope someone made it out.


No chance, the pieces of wreckage on the beach indicate a high speed crash.
Quoting 215. ricderr:

there is a big deal by bloggers and some professional mets concerning the current MJO in the pacific and how it relates to the 97 cycle that brought about the very strong 97/98 El Nino event....well guess what....they're right....about the MJO that is.......in february of 97 just as this february...their was a mjo pulse...and strengthened through march....and before and since....not to be rivaled....well..that is until this year....

so after verifying what these experts already knew....i wanted to know the consequences....the answer...the 97 mjo was outrageously productive in producing the strongest el nino event recorded of modern day

don't believe me....read up from the CPC.....

In contrast, March and April featured an extremely rapid transition to one of the strongest warm episodes of
the century. SSTs increased nearly 1.5C over the normal annual cycle in the Nio 1 2 region during March (Fig. 24a), and nearly 1.0-1.5C over the annual cycle in the Nio 3, Nio 3.4 and Nio 4 regions. In the Nio 4 region this increase occurred during a two-week period and was greater than the entire annual cycle of SST for that region. A second period of very rapid SST increases in the east-central Pacific then occurred during April, as SSTs in both the Nio 3 and Nio 3.4 regions climbed an additional 1C over that expected from the normal annual cycle. Thus, by mid-April SSTs exceeded 28C across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Figs. 24b-d ), with values averaging 1-3C above normal in all four Nio regions. Area-averaged SSTs in the Nio 3, Nio 3.4 and Nio 4 regions then remained nearly constant at values greater than 28C throughout the remainder of the year. This warming reflected a nearly complete elimination of the annual cycle in SSTs across most of the equatorial Pacific, which is normally characterized by a peak in temperatures during March-April and a minimum during September-October


so then the question must be asked....is this year responding as in 97......and i reference this from the blurb above...

SSTs increased nearly 1.5C over the normal annual cycle in the Nio 1 2 region during March


during March (Fig. 24a), and nearly 1.0-1.5C over the annual cycle in the Nio 3, Nio 3.4 and Nio 4 regions

and so...when we look to this march...."nowcast" to quote a term.......instead of rapid intensification of the ENSO regions.....we're seeing the exact opposite....all 4 regions are rapidly declining...quite different early results than what the same pattern gave us in 97...

and so i end this post with what i found consistently on internet sites during in my morning persuing the internet about the MJO...and that is....

THERE'S A LOT TO BE LEARNED BETWEEN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MJO AND EL NINO


SST anomalies are very similar to this point in 1997. So although those values increased they were increasing from La-Nina values.

March 15th 1997.


March 12th 2015

Quoting 232. ricderr:




SAR>>>>>>SAR>>>>> ;look>>>>>> I USED THE QUOTE FEATURE........


In a general sense, at the rate we're going, we could viably lose ENSO altogether, but that's a discussion for another time

you know...this was the common wisdom not that long ago


The only wisdom now from many on here is to attack other people if those view points aren't matched.
Quoting 232. ricderr:




SAR>>>>>>SAR>>>>> ;look>>>>>> I USED THE QUOTE FEATURE........


In a general sense, at the rate we're going, we could viably lose ENSO altogether, but that's a discussion for another time

you know...this was the common wisdom not that long ago


Eventually some of that heat stored in the Souther Oceans is going to start to be released.
It is getting interesting.
Latest CFSv2 is in line with my thinking a moderate El-Nino similar to 2009. I can tell you this Nino 1&2 is about to shoot up over the next few weeks especially as we get into April. Spring Barrier is nowcast it seems as all these changes appear like they will happen in the Spring which is unusual as they normally happen in the Summer or Fall and is likely the reason why this ESO situation as the attention of many people in the weather field ranging from the NHC, Colorado State, to WSI, and even TWC.



Are they still expecting Pam to rapidly intensify? How strong could she get?
It seems to me that it would take a lot of energy to support the development and movement of all the tropical activity in the Southern Hemisphere right now, right? Has this happened before? This many named storms at the same time in the same area, one of them a category five?
Quoting 232. ricderr:




SAR>>>>>>SAR>>>>>look>>>>>> I USED THE QUOTE FEATURE........


In a general sense, at the rate we're going, we could viably lose ENSO altogether, but that's a discussion for another time

you know...this was the common wisdom not that long ago


Quite frankly it still is... ENSO is the global system's response to amend internal disequilibrium that's imparted by a wide variety of external forcing mechanisms, and the system can only efficiently respond to this disequilibrium at a specific harmonic/resonance, hence why it tends to peak near & just before the boreal winter solstice. Decreasing the natural equator-pole thermal gradient in the boreal winter (which has been proxied by the dramatic warming that has taken place in the arctic, particularly during the winter), causes the Hadley Cell & attendant Walker Circulation to expand/weaken, w/ consequently less robust tropical convective forcing within the associated ascending portion of the Hadley Cell, thus leading a general & pronounced weakening of ENSO itself (or as Anthony Masiello more adequately termed, "ENSO wave weakening"). We saw a taste of this in the 1920s-1940s, and it could conceivably happen once again in the "relatively" near future
Quoting 234. StormTrackerScott:


SST anomalies are very similar to this point in 1997. So although those values increased they were increasing from La-Nina values.

March 15th 1997.


March 12th 2015



+IOD is evident in the 1997 image. -IOD is a major inhibitor to El Nino since it strengthens the Walker Cell circulation.
SST anomalies are very similar to this point in 1997. So although those values increased they were increasing from La-Nina values.


yes scott....the values were neutral/nina...and they increased radically.....but to say that at this point....they're similar....well...that's just not close to correct.....here'es the monthly enso values for each region




MARCH 1997

REGION 1.2 0.43

REGION 3 -0.16

REGION 4 0.33

REGION 3.4 -0.19


WHERE'S THE SIMILARITIES?????
Quoting 240. TimSoCal:



IOD is evident in the 1997 image. -IOD is a major inhibitor to El Nino since it strengthens the Walker Cell circulation.


Well forecast to get close to or above the positive range for the IOD later this year. Here is this from the Aussie's.

Quoting 229. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Dry air, which has been more prevalent than models thought.

It's a good thing that dry air has been able to disrupt Pam a bit. Imagine how strong she'd be if that wasn't the case...
Quoting 241. ricderr:

SST anomalies are very similar to this point in 1997. So although those values increased they were increasing from La-Nina values.


yes scott....the values were neutral/nina...and they increased radically.....but to say that at this point....they're similar....well...that's just not close to correct.....here'es the monthly enso values for each region



REGION 1.2 0.43

REGION 3 -0.16

REGION 4 0.33

REGION 3.4 -0.19


WHERE'S THE SIMILARITIES?????



Well the fact that they were lower in 1997 than what we are now is interesting and it will be interesting to see how all of these factors unfold the next several weeks as what is about to happen appears it is going to do so fast. So the Spring Barrier may not even be of use this year as these Nino's typically increase in the late Summer or Fall and to have one intensify in the Spring raises the odds of a stronger El-Nino as fact is El-Nino's that develope in the Spring tend to be stronger. Well see as no one really knows how this will play but it appears the chances are moderate/strong El-Nino.
The WU live blog on Pam is here:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/wundergroundlive /comment.html?entrynum=0

Jeff Masters will be posting a full update later this afternoon, as Pam continues to strengthen.

--Bob H.
Holy smokes. I just went outside briefly and broke a sweat walking to my car. It feels like a summer day here with the high dew points.

247. 882MB
I know all the attention is focused on Pam, but Tropical cyclone Olwyn, made landfall right over Learmonth and Exmouth, located in a small peninsula on the western most tip of Australia. Also Nathan has been dumping copious amounts of rainfall over the past 2 to 3 days over Northern Queensland, even though it has stayed offshore. Double whammy for Australia again, though thankfully not as severe as Lam and Marcia. Now talking about Pam, it has moved SSW almost all night, and intensifying as she's getting closer to Vanuatu. Since she's expected to turn south, looks like every island will have some type of damage unless, Pam rapidly hooks south and east, which on satellite, does not look to be happening. Now Bavi, well thankfully its not expected to reach super typhoon intensity, due to cool waters, but it will hit the Mariana's islands, passing very close or near Guam. If this were summer in the northern hemisphere then Bavi would of probably been trouble. Here in this satellite image below are all 4 systems.

From the Vanuatu Meteorological Services
Link

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 15 for
TORBA, SANMA, PENAMA, MALAMPA, SHEFA and TAFEA provinces

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 15 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 2:59am VUT Friday 13 March 2015
for TORBA, SANMA, PENAMA, MALAMPA, SHEFA and TAFEA provinces .

At 2:00am local time, Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM was located near
14.6 degrees South 169.6 degrees East. This is about 235 KM east southeast of
Vanua Lava and 165 KM east northeast of Maewo. PAM is positioned at the center
of the square letter I, number 4 (I,4) of the Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking
map. Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM moved in a south southwest direction at 16 KM/HR
in the past 3 hours.

The central pressure of the system is estimated at 920 hPa. Winds close to the
centre are estimated at 215 KM/HR. Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM is forecast to
be at 16.5 degrees South 169.2 degrees East within the next 06 to 12 hours.

Damaging Gale force winds of 75 KM/HR gusting to 105 KM/HR will affect TORBA,
SANMA, PENAMA, MALAMPA and extending to SHEFA province tonight and tomorrow.
Winds over PENAMA, MALAMPA and SHEFA provinces will increase to 160 KM/HR
within the next 12 hours as the system continues to move southward and
intensifying further.

Damaging gale force winds of 75 KM/HR will affect TAFEA province within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (8am, 13 Mar) 15.5S, 169.3E 115 KTS (215 KM/HR)
+12 hours (2pm, 13 Mar) 16.5S, 169.2E 115 KTS (215 KM/HR)
+18 hours (8pm, 13 Mar) 17.6S, 169.1E 115 KTS (215 KM/HR)
+24 hours (2am, 14 Mar) 18.8S, 169.3E 115 KTS (215 KM/HR)
+36 hours (2pm, 14 Mar) 21.6S, 170.3E 115 KTS (215 KM/HR)
+48 hours (2am, 15 Mar) 24.8S, 172.6E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)

Damaging winds and very rough to phenomenal seas with heavy swells will affect
TORBA, PENAMA, SANMA, MALAMPA, SHEFA and TAFEA provinces. Heavy to torrential
rainfall and flooding, including flash flooding are expected over low lying
areas and areas close to the river banks. Landslide is also expected. Coastal
flooding is also expected near the coastal areas.

The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advises people, that
Red Alert in now current for TORBA, SANMA, PENAMA and MALAMPA provinces. Yellow
Alert is in effect for SHEFA and TAFEA provinces. For action on this alerts, call
the office of the NDMO on 22699 or 33366.

The next warning on Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM will be issued at 6:00am
tonight. People over TORBA, SANMA, PENAMA, MALAMPA, SHEFA and TAFEA provinces
should listen to all Radio Outlets to get the latest information on this system.

This warning is also available on VMGD's website:www.meteo.gov.vu

First smidge of light at Port Vila...
Quoting 246. tampabaymatt:

Holy smokes. I just went outside briefly and broke a sweat walking to my car. It feels like a summer day here with the high dew points.





A recent dewpoint at BWI was 16F. Not quite uuhh summery. The temperature was 53F.

However, to my surprise the frost is out of the ground in my backyard in College Park MD and it's just wet soil. The previous owner
did a superb job maintaining organic content and the soil is wet but actually workable. Too cold to do anything though but it won't be long.

To my amazement an opaque heavy sheet over the lettuce was sufficient to protect it through one of our rougher winters. It looks beat up but alive and I may have lettuce in mid April from these plants.
From WSI

Evidence that the Atmospheric-Oceanic System is Evolving Towards a Strong El Nino

HEADLINES: There are a number of signs that suggest the atmosphere and ocean are working together in such a way that could produce a strong El Nino to emerge this Summer and continue into the cool season. Recency bias associated with last year's El Nino event in the media mainstream would suggest here comes another early Spring El Nino hyping but there has been enough evidence that suggests an El Nino event did in fact evolve late last Spring which continued through early Winter. This being said, there are now a number of global-scale observations that support evidence to put out a strong El Nino alert for the 2015 Summer and Fall Seasons. El Nino atmospheres during the Summer are often associated with a strong uptick in Pacific (West and East) tropical cyclone activity, a colder than average U.S. summer, and a reduced frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Last Spring, we put out a blog that discussed there was risk for a moderate to strong El Nino to evolve during the warm season. While the Climate Prediction Center did not commit to naming last year%u2019s El Nino event (due to not registering in their ONI index), there was an amount of activity around the globe that occurred last Summer into the early Winter that supported the El Nino impacts on global circulation. All ENSO indices with exception of ONI registered a moderate El Nino event later last Spring into the Fall, including our official atmospheric ENSO index.

The mangitude of the current MJO event underway is in the same ball park of what happened prior to the strong 1997 El Nino.

The current MJO event discussed earlier is forecast to amplify over the central Pacific (Phase 7) to a magnitude somewhere between 3 and 4 standard deviations. The RMM phase 7 record amplitude during March was set in 1997 of 3.85 sigma. The latest forecast from the UKMET now rivals this record next week.


The second highest ever March Arctic Oscillation (AO) index value was recorded earlier this week. The highest ever value was set back in March 1997.

According to our internal AO standardized index, the AO rose to 3 sigma earlier this week. This is the second highest value in our WSI AO standardized index, second to March 1997. Now while the AO index itself CANNOT be used to predict El Ninos, there has been some literature in atmospheric journals that argue the North Atlantic response to El Nino evolves through a stratospheric pathway. This could be some sort of connection to that pathway that offers some insight to the state of ENSO this Summer. As a side note, CPC's AO index rose to 5.5 sigma on the dates that our index rose to 3 sigma.



Yes, there is a barrier for ENSO prediction in the Spring. While models often over-predict the magntiude of El Nino during the Spring time, the fact that nearly all ensemble members from the CFSv2 and ECMWF are in support for an ENSO 3.4 Index to be at least 1 sigma (with much more upside than downside) argues a stronger El Nino state to evolve this summer when compared to last Summer. Again, models do not do a great job with representing Oceanic Kelvin wave variability%u2026 which can cause intraseasonal warming and cooling periods.

Latest Euro. OUCH!


Here's a look at all the dynamical models that will update on the IRI
Probably extratropical right now. Center is exposed and alongated. Even this i still can see the clouds here around Porto Alegre. East of Santa Catarina has wind gusts around 35 mph this confirms the extratropical transition
Quoting 251. StormTrackerScott:

From WSI

Evidence that the Atmospheric-Oceanic System is Evolving Towards a Strong El Nino

HEADLINES: There are a number of signs that suggest the atmosphere and ocean are working together in such a way that could produce a strong El Nino to emerge this Summer and continue into the cool season. Recency bias associated with last year’s El Nino event in the media mainstream would suggest here comes another early Spring El Nino hyping… but there has been enough evidence that suggests an El Nino event did in fact evolve late last Spring which continued through early Winter. This being said, there are now a number of global-scale observations that support evidence to put out a strong El Nino alert for the 2015 Summer and Fall Seasons. El Nino atmospheres during the Summer are often associated with a strong uptick in Pacific (West and East) tropical cyclone activity, a colder than average U.S. summer, and a reduced frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones.

Last Spring, we put out a blog that discussed there was risk for a moderate to strong El Nino to evolve during the warm season. While the Climate Prediction Center did not commit to naming last year’s El Nino event (due to not registering in their ONI index), there was an amount of activity around the globe that occurred last Summer into the early Winter that supported the El Nino impacts on global circulation. All ENSO indices with exception of ONI registered a moderate El Nino event later last Spring into the Fall, including our official atmospheric ENSO index.


SAR......SAR.......I'M QUOTING ANOTHER POST

help me out here scott.......they're saying we were in el nino last spring???......even though it met none of the criteria.???......you sure that's not a tea party site where they don't let the facts get in the way of their agenda?
Learmont Weatherstation in the path of Olwyn. Click graph to go to page..
So what if we have an El Nino? It's not unprecedented.

So what if we get an El Nino? It's not unprecedented.



psst drak.....we already have it....it was announced by the cpc a week ago.....
Quoting 257. ricderr:


So what if we get an El Nino? It's not unprecedented.



psst drak.....we already have it....it was announced by the cpc a week ago.....


Changed get to have for the OCD inclined.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY
KANAWHA COUNTY HOMELAND SECURITY AND OFFICE OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
114 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015

...LOCAL AREA EMERGENCY...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
KANAWHA COUNTY HOMELAND SECURITY AND OFFICE OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.

AN EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS ON KEYSTONE DRIVE...BETWEEN
BARLOW DRIVE AND GREENBRIER STREET...IS BEING ISSUED DUE TO A
HILLSIDE SLIP.
Quoting 253. ricderr:


SAR......SAR.......I'M QUOTING ANOTHER POST

help me out here scott.......they're saying we were in el nino last spring???......even though it met none of the criteria.???......you sure that's not a tea party site where they don't let the facts get in the way of their agenda?


In WSI's defense, there's this.

Relatively calm near shore waters are allowing a lot of boats to join the Spring Break crowd at Fort Myers Beach.
Quoting 244. StormTrackerScott:



Well the fact that they were lower in 1997 than what we are now is interesting and it will be interesting to see how all of these factors unfold the next several weeks as what is about to happen appears it is going to do so fast. So the Spring Barrier may not even be of use this year as these Nino's typically increase in the late Summer or Fall and to have one intensify in the Spring raises the odds of a stronger El-Nino as fact is El-Nino's that develope in the Spring tend to be stronger. Well see as no one really knows how this will play but it appears the chances are moderate/strong El-Nino.


I'm coming around.
We shall see.
It is very strange out there.
Up to 140 kts. at 18z Best Track.

17P PAM 150312 1800 15.0S 169.6E SHEM 140 918
Quoting 263. Tropicsweatherpr:

Up to 140 kts. at 18z Best Track.

17P PAM 150312 1800 15.0S 169.6E SHEM 140 918



Assuming that's 10 minute sustained (multiply by 1.12 to get 1 minute sustained equivalent), Pam now has 180 mph winds, which is the strongest ever recorded in the southern hemisphere.
265. 882MB
Quoting 265. 882MB:



With an eye that small, it might have an EWRC soon.
Quoting 264. yonzabam:



Assuming that's 10 minute sustained (multiply by 1.12 to get 1 minute sustained equivalent), Pam now has 180 mph winds, which is the strongest ever recorded in the southern hemisphere.


That is from JTWC, 1 minute sustained.
Quoting 264. yonzabam:



Assuming that's 10 minute sustained (multiply by 1.12 to get 1 minute sustained equivalent), Pam now has 180 mph winds, which is the strongest ever recorded in the southern hemisphere.

That's form the JTWC so it's already in 1-min sustain winds. The 10-min from Nadi are still at 120 knts.
Quoting 268. Supportstorm:


That's form the JTWC so it's already in 1-min sustain winds. The 10-min from Nadi are still at 120 knts.

That's still 160 mph winds. 20 mph isn't gonna make much difference.
Quoting 255. Drakoen:

So what if we have an El Nino? It's not unprecedented.
Because it has to be super duper uber! El nino.Regular el nino won't do! we got a show to put on.Its going to cause massive mudslides! Super typhoons and monster hurricanes in the pacific! Everyone is doomed! Dooooooomed!

In all seriousness most see this being a weak event.
Pam's NE eyewall is open.



Quoting Huracan94:

That's still 160 mph winds. 20 mph isn't gonna make much difference.


In terms of kinetic energy, 20mph will make a difference. The difference in being in a 110mph Category 2 and a 130mph Category 4 is pretty substantial.
On the other side of Australia, we have landfall.

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 1h 1 hour ago
March NMME fcst trending toward a stronger El Nino for Sept.
Because it has to be super duper uber! El nino.Regular el nino won't do! we got a show to put on.Its going to cause massive mudslides! Super typhoons and monster hurricanes in the pacific! Everyone is doomed! Dooooooomed!

In all seriousness most see this being a weak event.


darn shame we can't do the batman pop ups.......cus we could add....HAMMERED.....WOW......UNHEARD OF......
Quoting 265. 882MB:





If there is any saving grace it would be that most of the islands are on the west side of the circulation.
Absolutely horrifying if your not in a substantial structure on high ground.
Lets hope this presses just a hair more east than forecast.
Quoting 271. CybrTeddy:

Pam's NE eyewall is open.





In terms of kinetic energy, 20mph will make a difference. The difference in being in a 110mph Category 2 and a 130mph Category 4 is pretty substantial.
The side with the most convection? That's weird.
277. jpsb
Quoting 202. SeriouslySushi:


What's politically correct, or incorrect, for that matter, about whether or not it looks there's going to be an el nino? Or if it's going to rain, or if it does or not?
You guys have such a politicized thought process about climate change that you see weather through the same lens. Like I bet you think mostly liberals think it makes sense based on current conditions to predict an el nino, or something.
Most signs point to an el nino. It may not happen, but it will still be the case that most signs were pointing to an el nino.





Activating the forecast points for that loops it's unfortunately easy to see that Pam is veering off the predicted path to the WEST (this is going on for hours already), will mean closer to the islands including esp. Efate with Port Vila. To hit the next forecast point Pam should immediately make a huge wobble towards the east.
Quoting 271. CybrTeddy:

Pam's NE eyewall is open.





In terms of kinetic energy, 20mph will make a difference. The difference in being in a 110mph Category 2 and a 130mph Category 4 is pretty substantial.

That is true in terms of kinetic energy, yes, but really once winds get above 150 mph there's just going to be utter devastation anyway. That's the reason why it's difficult to get an estimated wind speed from EF-5 tornadoes without a doppler radar, because they sweep practically everything but the foundations away with winds that strong. The wind basically just runs out of more things to destroy.
Quoting 278. barbamz:

Activating the forecast points for that loops it's unfortunately easy to see that Pam is veering off the predicted path to the WEST (this is going on for hours already), will mean closer to the islands including esp. Efate with Port Vila. To hit the next forecast point Pam should immediately make a huge wobble towards the east.


Alligator on Golf course was a fake. It was just on the radio oddly enough.
Quoting 277. jpsb:






That's really neat, man, but I'm afraid I don't understand what I'm to infer here...
Quoting 278. barbamz:

Activating the forecast points for that loops it's unfortunately easy to see that Pam is veering off the predicted path to the WEST (this is going on for hours already), will mean closer to the islands including esp. Efate with Port Vila. To hit the next forecast point Pam should immediately make a huge wobble towards the east.


Good spot. I've been watching Atlantic hurricanes long enough to know that you can't read too much into these short term 'wobbles'. But, the southern islands of Vanuatu should now be on a higher state of alert, as it might be more than just a wobble.
NOÀA says Pam is down to 898? Incredible!
Just needs to drop 28 more mb to tie Typhoon Tip's record, and 29 to break it.
Just set up the rain gauge, and it is clouding up and a warm 66 degrees in Carbondale.
Quoting 281. StormTrackerScott:



Alligator on Golf course was a fake. It was just on the radio oddly enough.

Wow, really? Even the big agencies (Reuters and German dpa) picked up the story including two different photos, quoting the management of this golf club in Englewood that alligators were common at this place :-0
Quoting 287. barbamz:


Wow, really? Even the big agencies (Reuters and German dpa) picked up the story including two different photos, quoting the management of this golf club in Englewood that alligators are common at this place :-0


Guy on radio said the photo appeared photo shopped. I thought it was too when I first saw it.



Look at the western eyewall.... possible ERC in the making?
tropical model im looking at has nate wandering around making a large circle.
Quoting 215. ricderr:

there is a big deal by bloggers and some professional mets concerning the current MJO in the pacific and how it relates to the 97 cycle that brought about the very strong 97/98 El Nino event....well guess what....they're right....about the MJO that is.......in february of 97 just as this february...their was a mjo pulse...and strengthened through march....and before and since....not to be rivaled....well..that is until this year....

so after verifying what these experts already knew....i wanted to know the consequences....the answer...the 97 mjo was outrageously productive in producing the strongest el nino event recorded of modern day

don't believe me....read up from the CPC.....

In contrast, March and April featured an extremely rapid transition to one of the strongest warm episodes of
the century. SSTs increased nearly 1.5°C over the normal annual cycle in the Niño 1+2 region during March (Fig. 24a), and nearly 1.0°-1.5°C over the annual cycle in the Niño 3, Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 regions. In the Niño 4 region this increase occurred during a two-week period and was greater than the entire annual cycle of SST for that region. A second period of very rapid SST increases in the east-central Pacific then occurred during April, as SSTs in both the Niño 3 and Niño 3.4 regions climbed an additional 1°C over that expected from the normal annual cycle. Thus, by mid-April SSTs exceeded 28°C across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (Figs. 24b-d ), with values averaging 1°-3°C above normal in all four Niño regions. Area-averaged SSTs in the Niño 3, Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 regions then remained nearly constant at values greater than 28°C throughout the remainder of the year. This warming reflected a nearly complete elimination of the annual cycle in SSTs across most of the equatorial Pacific, which is normally characterized by a peak in temperatures during March-April and a minimum during September-October


so then the question must be asked....is this year responding as in 97......and i reference this from the blurb above...

SSTs increased nearly 1.5°C over the normal annual cycle in the Niño 1+2 region during March


during March (Fig. 24a), and nearly 1.0°-1.5°C over the annual cycle in the Niño 3, Niño 3.4 and Niño 4 regions

and so...when we look to this march...."nowcast" to quote a term.......instead of rapid intensification of the ENSO regions.....we're seeing the exact opposite....all 4 regions are rapidly declining...quite different early results than what the same pattern gave us in 97...

and so i end this post with what i found consistently on internet sites during in my morning persuing the internet about the MJO...and that is....

THERE'S A LOT TO BE LEARNED BETWEEN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE MJO AND EL NINO
Ric.. not sure if I'm going to report you.. ignore you.. or ask you to marry me!
292. emguy
Quoting 288. StormTrackerScott:



Guy on radio said the photo appeared photo shopped. I thought it was too when I first saw it.


I have played golf there for 28 years...it's where I learned to play. I can most certainly assure you the photos are real.
Quoting 291. JNFlori30A:

Ric.. not sure if I'm going to report you.. ignore you.. or ask you to marry me!



Ric is old. Why go old when you can go young.
Link
Port Vila is getting hammered by the outer rain squalls right now.
Quoting 288. StormTrackerScott:

Guy on radio said the photo appeared photo shopped. I thought it was too when I first saw it.

Well, there are some videos to boot - and alligators are roaming FL, as far as I've learned in here?
Link
Link

But better let this subject go now. And sun is up on Pam:




Quoting 289. TimTheWxMan:




Look at the western eyewall.... possible ERC in the making?

Could you explain? What does ERC mean, and what would it mean if one was in the making?
Quoting 288. StormTrackerScott:



Guy on radio said the photo appeared photo shopped. I thought it was too when I first saw it.
Quoting 292. emguy:



I have played golf there for 28 years...it's where I learned to play. I can most certainly assure you the photos are real.


The only thing photoshopped these days are super models and el nino forecast models... :)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Alligator on Golf course was a fake. It was just on the radio oddly enough.


I play golf 4 times per week all over the state. I have seen dozens of gators that size wandering the golf courses - most if the time crossing fairways going from one lake to another. Is that particular photo a fake? Don't know but it happens all the time.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #23
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM, CATEGORY FIVE (11F)
6:00 AM FST March 13 2015
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam, Category Five (918 hPa) located at 14.9S 169.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Eye warming and convective tops cooling further past 18 hours. System lies in a moderate sheared environment with strong upper divergence. Outflow good. Pam is being steered southwest by a northeast deep layer mean wind flow. Cyclonic circulation extends to 250 HPA. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with MG eye, cold medium grey surround, yields DT=6.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and move it southwest and then southeastwards.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 16.7S 168.9E - 120 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS 18.8S 169.2E - 120 knots (CAT 5)
48 HRS 24.5S 172.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4)

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
TROPICAL CYCLONE NATHAN, CATEGORY TWO (17U)
4:40 AM EST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Cyclone Nathan, Category Two (981 hPa) located at 13.5S 145.0E or 90 kilometers northeast of Cape Melville and 220 kilometers north of Cooktown has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 2 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==============
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
20 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Cyclone Nathan remains slow moving off the northeast Queensland coast north of Cape Melville. It is expected to begin moving east away from the coast during today.
Hazards:

GALES currently extend out to approximately 170 kilometers from the center to the north of the system and about 100 kilometres to the south of the system. GALES are likely about coastal and island areas between Lockhart River and Cape Melville today and could develop south towards Cooktown during this afternoon depending on the track the cyclone takes.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are expected to develop within 45 kilometers of the center later today and could begin to affect coastal and island areas between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville if the cyclone takes a track closer to the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS currently extend out to around 70 kilometers from the center and could develop about the coast and islands between Cape Flattery and Cape Melville, including Lizard Island, if the cyclone takes a more southerly track today.

Areas of heavy rain will continue about parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts this morning before gradually easing towards the end of today as the cyclone moves away from the coast. A Flood Watch is current for North Tropical Coast catchments north of Innisfail and some Flood Warnings are also current, refer to these products for further details.

Abnormally high tides could develop about coastal and island areas between Coen and Cape Flattery today with large waves possibly leading to minor flooding along the foreshore if the cyclone takes a more westward track closer to the coast. People living in areas that could be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbors in case this scenario occurs.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS 13.2S 145.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 13.1S 146.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS 13.5S 149.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS 14.2S 153.9E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
===========================
The cloud signature of Nathan has been deteriorating during the last 6 or so hours with the main area of deep convection shrinking and cloud tops warming on IR satellite imagery. However on the 1732UTC MTSAT infrared image a new convective flare is evident. Generally satellite imagery has continued to depict the effects of northeasterly shear on Nathan, and 12Z CIMSS winds continue to analyze roughly 25 to 30 knots of deep layer shear over the system.

Intensity is maintained at 55 knots [10 minute mean] despite the deteriorating cloud signature, based off persistence of the 55 knot 12UTC ASCAT pass and the expectation that the deep layer shear should be undergoing a reducing trend and becoming more favorable for development during the next 12 to 24 hours. Confidence in the 18UTC low level center fix is fair to good based on a 1700 UTC GMI microwave pass. Given this center, a Dvorak shear pattern would show the center not quite 1/3 degree under the deep convection, so DT is 3.0. MET is 2.5, PAT is 2.0. Final T 3.0, and CI held at 3.5.

Based on the 1700 UTC GMI microwave image, there are hints of a recent NE movement, but the uncertainty in recent positions makes this conclusion tenuous and will wait until there is more evidence before committing to this movement. Over longer time scales the system remains slow moving to the NW.

It is still anticipated that the mid-level ridge which has been the dominant steering influence in recent days will break down ahead of an upper trough moving across eastern Australia in the next 12 hours or so. As a result, it is expected that the steering pattern will shift and lead to the system adopting more of an eastwards track today. Observed 500 geopotential heights at Willis Island and Townsville have fallen during the last 12 to 18 hours, giving some indication this process may be occurring.

It is expected that the deep layer vertical wind shear should decrease today as the mid level ridge erodes and the steering pattern reorganized. Numerical weather prediction guidance depicts a reduction in the NE flow over the system at 200 HPA from about 0000 UTC, so steady intensification is forecast from that time.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Lockhart River to Cooktown

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #25
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLWYN, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
2:15 AM WST March 13 2015
=====================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn, Category Three (965 hPa) located at 22.2S 113.8E or 40 kilometers southwest of Exmouth and 105 kilometers north of Coral Bay has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
110 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
85 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity; T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS

The center of Severe Tropical Cyclone Olwyn is just to the southwest of Exmouth with very destructive wind gusts being observed over the Northwest Cape.

Olwyn is tracking just to the west of Exmouth and will maintain a track very close to coast as it moves southward. The system will slowly weaken during Friday. As it moves southwards it is expected to take heavy rain and squally winds into southern parts of Western Australia.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts exceeding 165 km/h are expected near Exmouth and surrounding areas over the next 6 hours as the cyclone moves southwards along the northern parts of the west coast of Western Australia. Wind gusts to 180 km/h are currently being experienced at Learmonth. VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may extend to Coral Bay early Friday morning and may reach Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon during Friday.

Gales with gusts to 120 km/h are currently being experienced along the western Pilbara coast and northern Gascoyne coast.

Residents between Mardie around to Cape Cuvier, including Exmouth, Onslow and Coral Bay, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast or passes close by. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall is occurring over the western Pilbara and is expected to extend to the northern Gascoyne during Friday. Heavy rainfall will extend further southwards on Saturday.

Forecast and Intensity
====================
12 HRS 25.0S 113.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS 27.8S 114.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 36.9S 119.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 39.0S 124.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
A ragged, elongated eye has been apparent on IR imagery for the past 6 to 12 hours. The system is also being tracked on radar so confidence in the position is high. Note that Learmonth radar is no longer operational.

Dvorak: Eye analysis using recent enhanced infrared imagery has a center embedded in LG, yielding DT=5.0. Eye has remained ragged/elongated and so eye adjust is -0.5 giving DT of 4.5. This is consistent with MET. DT=FT=4.5. Intensity is set at at 75 knots [10-min mean]. Observations from Learmonth AWS of wind gusts to 180 km/h correspond well with the current intensity estimate of the system.

Olwyn is located near the west coast just to the southwest of Exmouth and is moving south to southwest at around 20 to 30 km/h. It is likely to remain close to the west coast during Friday. The weakening of Olwyn will depend on whether the system is located over land or further west over the ocean. If the system does remain over the ocean then wind and storm tide impacts down the west coast will be significant.

The range of numerical weather prediction tracks has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards the south over the next 12 hours. After this the system turns to the south southeast and increases further in speed. Olwyn is likely to undergo ETT due to interaction with an approaching trough and retain significant wind strength into higher latitudes. Heavy rain and squally winds are possible over a large part of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=============================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Warning zone: Mardie to Jurien Bay and inland to Paynes Find, including Karratha, Barrow Island, Onslow, Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham, Kalbarri and adjacent inland parts of the western Pilbara, western Gascoyne and northern Central West Districts.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (T1503)
3:00 AM JST March 13 2015
=================================
Near Marshall Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bavi (992 hPa) located at 8.6N 162.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 11.0N 155.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 12.6N 148.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 13.2N 142.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Mariana Islands
first viz...
Quoting 286. 62901IL:

NOÀA says Pam is down to 898? Incredible!
Just needs to drop 28 more mb to tie Typhoon Tip's record, and 29 to break it.
Just set up the rain gauge, and it is clouding up and a warm 66 degrees in Carbondale.



My WX station says it's 70 here but the rain's not supposed to start until tonight. The STL weather story this morning said that i may get 1 1/2 inches and carbondale may see 2 1/2 over the next couple of days!
Quoting 297. SeriouslySushi:


Could you explain? What does ERC mean, and what would it mean if one was in the making?



ERC= eyewall replacement cycle. This is when a second eyewall forms and chokes off the first one, causing the intensity of the hurricane to fluctuate, usually on the weaker side. They usually take 24-48 hours to complete.
Quoting 304. TimTheWxMan:




ERC= eyewall replacement cycle. This is when a second eyewall forms and chokes off the first one, causing the intensity of the hurricane to fluctuate, usually on the weaker side. They usually take 24-48 hours to complete.

Thank you kindly.
Quoting 304. TimTheWxMan:




ERC= eyewall replacement cycle. This is when a second eyewall forms and chokes off the first one, causing the intensity of the hurricane to fluctuate, usually on the weaker side. They usually take 24-48 hours to complete.

Let's hope that this EWRC disrupts the core long enough to cause some weakening as Pam passes near the other islands of Vanuatu. It all depends on how quickly Pam goes through the cycle.
Alligators on Florida golf courses, like that never happens.
We had one that looked every bit of 13 ft. walk off the golf course and across the street like he owned the place. He was huge.
During the dry season they tend to be seen a lot while moving from one body of water to another.
Have the 2015 season predictions been made yet? I could look it up, but this is faster ;) Plus, it's parent/teacher conference night. So far, I've seen one parent, and her child has a 98.
Quoting 308. muddertracker:

Have the 2015 season predictions been made yet? I could look it up, but this is faster ;) Plus, it's parent/teacher conference night. So far, I've seen one parent, and her child has a 98.
I havnt seen a post from you in a while MT...Hope you are well...:)
I think Typhoon Tip's record is pretty safe.


Highest winds

10-minute sustained: 260 km/h (160 mph)
1-minute sustained: 305 km/h (190 mph)


Lowest pressure

870 mbar (hPa); 25.69 inHg
(Worldwide record low)
Quoting 291. JNFlori30A:

Ric.. not sure if I'm going to report you.. ignore you.. or ask you to marry me!




Lmao.....thanx jn
Quoting 275. Abacosurf:




If there is any saving grace it would be that most of the islands are on the west side of the circulation.
Absolutely horrifying if your not in a substantial structure on high ground.
Lets hope this presses just a hair more east than forecast.



The west side is the stronger side for southern hemisphere, it's the inverse of the northern hemisphere. The NE side is the weaker side and the SW side is the stronger one.
Quoting 289. TimTheWxMan:




Look at the western eyewall.... possible ERC in the making?

I've seen people speculate eyewall replacement a few times across various media now in Pam's life, but so far, there hasn't been a single pass to support such an occurrence yet.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
316. 882MB
If this were summer, Bavi would of been big problems. You can see the entire W PAC, full of stratocumulus clouds
(shallow cloud layers due to drier, stable air above preventing continued vertical development), also cooler SST's, but warm enough to sustain a tropical system. This system would of been a big worry for Guam, if SST were up in the summer, fall seasons range, when usually the waters here are at there warmest. But this system looks to stay a shallow system. JTWC peaks it at 60 knots, at 72 hours. Pretty impressive indeed, on satellite imagery. This insane huge MJO is probably its reason for development just as our other ones in the southern hemisphere.



Quoting 297. SeriouslySushi:


Could you explain? What does ERC mean, and what would it mean if one was in the making?
Eyewall regeneration cycle....Probably is..it does not look as well as forecast..Doesnt mean it still cannot happen.
Busy afternoon for me but here is the latest IR shot of Pam from Rammb (I think we have most of the spectrums covered now in the numerous shots posted recently):

Quoting 233. MahFL:



No chance, the pieces of wreckage on the beach indicate a high speed crash.


As much as I want to see a good outcome, I don't think there will be either. I like to hold out hope until everyone is recovered though.

Do those helo's have black boxes? So we will at least know what happened.

And the weather probably played a role in the crash too.

Quoting 277. jpsb:





That was supposedly on Cape Cod -- probably Arctic sea ice blown out of the Arctic and now melting even faster than what's left up there. My guess: The Arctic will be ice free this summer. :-(