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U.S. Weather Returns to Its Climatological Senses, and Then Some

By: Bob Henson 3:44 PM GMT on December 05, 2016

After a markedly mild November marked by thousands of daily record highs and less than 100 record daily lows (more on that in our upcoming monthly roundup), it will feel much more like December across the bulk of the contiguous U.S. over the next couple of weeks. Some locations may see their coldest weather in years as a series of Arctic high pressure cells swing through western Canada and southward across all but the Desert Southwest.

A sneak preview of the wintry weather to come hit parts of the Midwest on Sunday, when an anticipated light snow turned out to be a more efficient producer than expected. The 6.4” of snow at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport was the city’s heaviest December snowfall since 2005. It was also more snow than Chicago obtained in December 2014 and 2015 combined (4.5”). Snowfall records for December 4 were set at Chicago as well as at Moline, IL (7.8”) and Madison, WI (5.7”). This fast-moving but mostly light snow shield will scoot across New England on Monday.


Figure 1. The first snow of the season descended on Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin, on Sunday, December 4, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer lablover47.

A brief warmup for much of the central U.S. on Monday will be followed by the first of several Arctic blasts, each more intense than the last. The first front will push from the Northern Rockies on Monday into the Midwest on Tuesday and the Northeast by Wednesday. A stronger reinforcing shot will kick in later in the week, with that front pushing all the way through the Gulf of Mexico and across Florida by the weekend. Most of the Plains and South will see temperatures as much as 20 - 25°F below average late this week. A widespread, crippling snowstorm isn’t expected, though the Front Range of Colorado may get a few inches by Wednesday. Favored lake-effect-snow regions near the Great Lakes could get hammered late this week as the frigid air approaches from a favorable direction and passes over waters that are running 5°F or more above average in many locations.


Figure 2. Low temperatures projected by the GFS model run from 00Z Monday show that temperatures at 12Z Friday, December 9, 2016 (6 AM CST/7AM EST) may dip below freezing as far south as southern Louisiana and the northwest Florida panhandle. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

More to come next week?
In the longer range, the GFS and ECMWF models indicate that the mid-level polar vortex may split in two next week, with one lobe shifting into Canada, the other perched atop western Russia, and a strong ridge extending from the North Pacific into the Arctic. If this pattern materializes, especially as depicted by the GFS, it would be conducive for additional Arctic surges into the contiguous U.S., likely bringing the coldest air of the year so far. Many record lows in December were set decades ago, during a notably cooler U.S. climate, so it’s typically difficult to match those readings without a truly intense cold shot. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a good number of daily record lows (and record-low maxima) challenged if not broken next week should the projected pattern take hold.

Bob Henson
No Customers Tonight
No Customers Tonight
The Knights of Columbus Christmas Tree lot in Algonquin IL had no customers during the time I was there taking photos ... roads were bad as 6.9 inches of wet snow fell on the town.
first snow
first snow
First snow

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Sneaux is of the Devil.

I avoid it always,

This will straighten out the Atlantic jet and cause another round of mild winter weather in western Europe.
Quoting 1. Patrap:

Sneaux is of the Devil.

I avoid it always,




I've come to appreciate it and prefer a climate with some winter and some (not a lot) of snow.
Been watching my Local wu nola page and dee red line goes way down come friday morn.

Gonna be a 3 dog night here.


Quoting 4. georgevandenberghe:



I've come to appreciate it and prefer a climate with some winter and some (not a lot) of snow.



We know George.

Thumbs up, again.

Thanks Mr. Henson; Winter with a vengeance on the way for Conus. Pursuant to the latest GFS Conus jet model, it looks to me like that big jet gap due South of the Bering Sea in Alaska over the North Pacific moving to the West will allow all of that cold Arctic air flow into the US once it gets here:




Winter is never going away for the Northern Hemisphere simply because of the Winter "tilt" of the Pole away from the Sun but what we will probably see in the future are milder-warmer periods up through November and then a quick warm-up again by March. Then you also have to factor in the regular Enso pattern for any given Winter period in terms of potential temperature extremes (hot or cold) for a particular region per established Enso climatology:



North American Winter Conditions

Here is the abstract of an article from 2012 on the issue of Enso issues in a warming climate:

Herceg Bulić, I., Branković, Č. & Kucharski, F. Clim Dyn (2012) 38: 1593. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0987-8
Changes in the winter atmospheric response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a warmer climate conditions are estimated from the two 20-member ensembles made by an atmospheric general circulation model of intermediate complexity. Warmer climate is simulated by a modification in the radiation parameterisation that corresponds to the doubled CO2 concentration, and SST forcing is represented by the same SST anomalies as in current climate (1855–2002) experiment superimposed on the climatological SST that was obtained from a complex atmosphere-ocean general circulation model forced with the doubled CO2. SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 region, categorised into five classes, enabled a composite analysis of changes in the Northern Hemisphere tropical/extratropical teleconnections. The main features of the tropical–extratropical teleconnections are maintained in both experiments; for example, irrespective of the sign of SST anomalies, the amplitude of the atmospheric response is positively correlated with the intensity of ENSO event and the El Niño impact is stronger than that of La Niña of the same intensity. The strongest extratropical signal in the warmer climate, particularly significant for strong warm events, is found over the Pacific/North American region; however, this extratropical teleconnections is reduced in a warmer climate relative to the current climate. Over the North Atlantic/European region, a detectable signal linked to ENSO is found; this model response is significantly strengthened in the experiment with the doubled CO2concentration. Such an atmospheric response in a warmer climate is found to be associated with changes in the mean state followed as well as in the jet waveguiding effect and stationary wave activity.

Global Warming Forecasts | Climate Change

Global warming forecasts trace their history back to the works of Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius (1890s), American geologist Thomas Chamberlain (1890s) and British engineer Guy S. Callendar (1930s and '40s).

In the 1950s, after oceanographers Roger Revelle and Hans Suess published research findings concluding that "human beings are now carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment" by discharging greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, Revelle, director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, recruited geochemist Charles David Keeling to begin the process of taking long-term measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere.

When Keeling started taking CO2 measurements at the weather observatory at the top of the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii and on the continent of Antarctica, he established the baseline for collecting the data that would begin the modern era of global warming forecasting.

Since Revelle’s and Keeling’s landmark work in the 1950s, global warming forecast research has expanded to develop projections based on concentrations of other greenhouse gases such as methane (the principal component of natural gas), carbon monoxide and nitrous oxide as well as temperature data, precipitation, weather patterns and specific ecosystems.

Global warming forecasting and research formats, however, have tended to be linear or vertical in nature, i.e., focusing on observations of singular data sets over time.
That caption should be "Self-Flocking trees," Thanks for the Update Mr. Henson...
thanks for the lunch time read

arctic flux high speed fans engage

get ready for some cold shots
I remember when I was younger northern KY would have the first snow before Thanksgiving and at least 1 measurable snow before Christmas. Was that just a cycle we went thru back in the 60's and 70s, or have the dates of first snow shifted to later in the year?
19. RayT
It's nice to have Snow for Christmas. This came 2 weeks early. When you consider the fall weather we've had so far, I'm willing to suck it up and pay the price for this.
Can someone give me a update on the weak la ninja that we were havining? Looks like the Pacific warmed up the last couple of days !
Quoting 18. Hawkyn:

I remember when I was younger northern KY would have the first snow before Thanksgiving and at least 1 measurable snow before Christmas. Was that just a cycle we went thru back in the 60's and 70s, or have the dates of first snow shifted to later in the year?


Every region will be impacted in a different way and even within the continental US; I can say this from my experience living in Florida all my life. In South Florida up until 2001, it used to get cooler (50's) by September-October on a regular basis in the 60's-70's and we have been seeing 80's down there in recent decades into December.

In North Florida since 2001, Winters have been very mild and the plants and flowers have bloomed earlier in the Spring up here almost every year with one bloom a few seasons ago in February.

Florida is closer to the equator and surrounded by warmer SSTs so this would be expected here............In your parts, your observations are probably valid as well.............The onset of Winter is being extended back in time in many places............
Quoting 16. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Guess I'll be busting out my fleece lined running gear sooner rather than later.

Quoting 15. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

thanks for the lunch time read

arctic flux high speed fans engage

get ready for some cold shots


GFS looks cold for the Northern Plains and upper Midwest week 2. Signal is less defined outside these areas and it doesn't look too bad for the Mid Atlantic. But with bitter cold air in the Northern Plains in a 240 hour forecast, things could change slightly so I'm watching. We will still see below normal temperatures this weekend and early next week and that will be a shock for us after a near record warm autumn season.

Citrus probably will need protection for the first time this season thursday night and I will have to turn off outdoor spigots.
Quoting 5. Patrap:

Been watching my Local wu nola page and dee red line goes way down come friday morn.

Gonna be a 3 dog night here.





Further North we need much bigger dogs.
Quoting 15. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

thanks for the lunch time read

arctic flux high speed fans engage

get ready for some cold shots


When I was a kid I used to speculate what might happen if we could somehow build the Great Wall of North America, a 10,000 foot (imaginary) structure across the Northern CONUS border to keep arctic air out. Inconsiderate jerk that I was I didn't think about what might happen on the other side.
The rather large overcast and advancing rain shield for the SE should help keep atmospheric instability down later this evening in terms of the continued slight risk category for severe boomers and it also looks like a very nice swatch of rain is setting up for the parched AL/TN/GA regions and beyond:


Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop


Back before the flood and when Men we still separated mostly by continents, Grothar and I in 12,666--BCE are seen here exiting the site after the 500 years construction of the Great Eurasian Ice Wall.

Under budget, on time and with only 6 Man days of accident time lost.




For West Palm Beach...the cold air stays to our north :(...

Quoting 24. georgevandenberghe:



Further North we need much bigger dogs.


Note the avatar here.

: )
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST MON DEC 05 2016

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
LA...MS...AL...GA...AND FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
WATER VAPOR LOOP CONFIRMS A COMPACT UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TX. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...PROMOTING LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND
SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY EVENING...
SUGGESTING SOME RISK OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE ARE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR INLAND THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE...AND TO EXTEND THE RISK AREAS EASTWARD INTO MORE OF
GA/FL DUE TO AN OVERNIGHT RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS TRACKING ALONG
THE FRONT.

..HART/ROGERS.. 12/05/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
Classic setup for a Hawaiian tap underway for California. Dry cold front and associated jet shifting southward over the state, opening up the pathway for subtropical moisture that's been dumping rain over the islands the past few days.

Very broad right front entrance area of a jet max should bring in plenty of soggy weather for the West Coast later this week, and lots of heavy snow to the mountains.
Welcome weather for a area dealing with extreme drought.
Quoting 33. Patrap:

Be cautious and aware of the local black ice issues that will certainly arise.




The NOAA definition of "black ice"
Black Ice
1. Slang reference to patchy ice on roadways or other transportation surfaces that cannot easily be seen.

"black ice" is one of the most dangerous road conditions. We frequently had "black ice" on bridges and elevated surfaces in central Oklahoma and it's extremely scary.
The main reason it's so dangerous is because you can't see it. All you see is the road surface (which is usually black - why the term black ice).

Here in NE Fla, I'm still barefoot.

The peanut butter fudge had to come back inside to cool off (it was just too hot out there) and the toffee had to go in the fridge.

All these snow pics and I feel like I'm not even part of this country.
51 days with no rain here in Fort Myers.

Tomorrow is our best chance for rain we've had in a long time. I've got my fingers crossed that we see some storms with the frontal passage.

Tuesday
12/06
82 | 69 F
Tuesday 60 % Precip. / 0.24 in
Scattered thunderstorms. High 82F. Winds SSW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Tuesday Night 20 % Precip. / 0 in
A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible early. Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later at night. Low 69F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph.
"Under budget, on time with only 6 Man days of accident time lost."




Must of been a Trump project.






Native Americans and US Veterans won the day.

Service and the Great Spirit combine for a Victory.

Semper Fi'




SCOTT OLSON VIA GETTY IMAGES
Military veterans place a flag that says ‘one water’ on a hillside above Oceti Sakowin Camp on the edge of the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation on December 4, 2016 outside Cannon Ball, North Dakota.

...NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...
BLENDED-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWARD-MIGRATING MOISTURE
PLUME --ORIGINS TRACED TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN-- OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MIDDAY MONDAY. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO INFILTRATE THE FL BIG BEND AND
SOUTHERN GA REGIONS PRIOR TO THE START OF THE DAY-2 PERIOD. DESPITE
THE PREVALENCE OF WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /14-15 G PER KG LOWEST 100-MB
MEAN MIXING RATIO/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY /250-750 J PER
KG MLCAPE/ IN THE WARM SECTOR. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...STRONG WIND FIELDS /50+ KT AT H7/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THIS
OTHERWISE CONDITIONAL YET FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...ABOVE AVERAGE SPREAD AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS YIELDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST. VARYING SCENARIOS OF...IN SOME CASES...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SEVERE-RISK AREAS PRIOR TO 12 UTC TUESDAY
WOULD GREATLY IMPACT THE PROSPECTS FOR DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN CONFLICTING SIGNALS...WILL DEFER ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE NEXT OUTLOOK.

Quoting 38. Sfloridacat5:

51 days with no rain here in Fort Myers.

Tomorrow is our best chance for rain we've had in a long time. I've got my fingers crossed that we see some storms with the frontal passage.

Tuesday
12/06
82 | 69 F
Tuesday 60 % Precip. / 0.24 in
Scattered thunderstorms. High 82F. Winds SSW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Tuesday Night 20 % Precip. / 0 in
A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible early. Cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later at night. Low 69F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph.
yes we sure could use some good rain here also.
Man oh man, what I would give for comprehensive met. data going back 500 years!

Quoting 28. GeoffreyWPB:

For West Palm Beach...the cold air stays to our north :(...


Yeah, along with EVERYTHING ELSE! :)
Quoting 43. JNFlori30A:

Man oh man, what I would give for comprehensive met. data going back 500 years!






And mud can even help scientists figure out when and where hurricanes struck in the past, long before humans were around to keep track of such things. In a sense, mud keeps a journal of events that happen on earth, but it is up to us to decipher those memories.

The researchers found multiple, thin layers of fine-grained sediment interspersed with thicker bands of coarser shell fragments in the Blue Hole cores. Courtesy of K. C. Denommee, S. J. Bentley, and A. W. Droxler/Nature Scientific Reports
If the hurricane is strong enough and generates a large enough storm surge, water from the ocean would flood over the barrier island and flow into the bay.

The marine sediment (overwash) carried by the storm surge would eventually settle to the bottom of the bay, adding another, distinct layer to the bay's particular mud pie.

Quoting 40. Patrap:

Native Americans and US Veterans won the day.

Service and the Great Spirit combine for a Victory.

Semper Fi'




SCOTT OLSON VIA GETTY IMAGES
Military veterans place a flag that says ‘one water’ on a hillside above Oceti Sakowin Camp on the edge of the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation on December 4, 2016 outside Cannon Ball, North Dakota.



Many friends and neighbors are still up there but fight may or not be over. Trump administration could reverse all of this within the first week in office.
In December 2010 one morning after finishing a midnight shift in Strathroy Ontario at an auto- parts facility I hopped in my 2007 ford focus and began what I thought might be a slow perhaps but otherwise uneventful 30 min drive home.

As I headed west out of town to the north-south road 4 kms away which leads me to highway #2 or Longwoods road where my farm is located the conditions went from 500m visibility and maybe an inch on the road to fully rutted, foot-deep drifts with zero visibility in less than a km, I had entered a classic intense lake effect band with 25 km to go. I was unable to distinguish the edges of the road as the N/S wind made drifts so the ditch was not visible, so the middle of the road, as best as I could tell, was the only place to drive. It took about 15 minutes to get to Melbourne road and head south, any faster than 50km/h and the car would start to fishtail about, but much slower than that you risked getting stuck so it was all hands on deck as far as attention and adrenaline go. When I got to Melbourne I could see more traffic than I was used to seeing, wouldn't you know it, the 401 was just closed and all traffic routed onto highways #2 and #3, yee-ha bumper to bumper in a blizzard for my last 10 km home. I ended up following a airport shuttle-bus from London headed to Detroit, the guy was barely able to keep it on the road, twice I thought there would be a wreck as the big rigs flew by heading east. In the end, I was able to carry momentum and plow my car through the big drift on the hill leading to my home. I have never before or since felt a rush of adrenaline like I felt when I made home safe that morning.

Hundreds of motorists were stranded on the 402 between Strathroy and Sarnia and needed rescue that morning as well. Link
Quoting 40. Patrap:

Native Americans and US Veterans won the day.

Service and the Great Spirit combine for a Victory.

Semper Fi'




SCOTT OLSON VIA GETTY IMAGES
Military veterans place a flag that says ‘one water’ on a hillside above Oceti Sakowin Camp on the edge of the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation on December 4, 2016 outside Cannon Ball, North Dakota.



Yep more unlawful behavior by another administration. As with the administration before if you don't like the ruling you get in court just change the rules midstream. This is all about politics and nothing else.
Quoting 34. BayFog:

Very broad right front entrance area of a jet max should bring in plenty of soggy weather for the West Coast later this week, and lots of heavy snow to the mountains.


Forecast for down here is .04 over two days, time to gather up the sandbags. /sarc
Centuries of Hurricane Records Deciphered
by Liz Osborn


An Alabama lake has dutifully recorded when catastrophic hurricanes have pounded the coast during the last 700 years. Now scientists have unravelled the lake's history of severe storms by deciphering a core sample they've taken from the lake's bottom. The core reveals that major hurricanes have sometimes come in clusters.
The most powerful hurricanes left their signatures when they dumped seawater into Lake Shelby. The normally freshwater lake sits about 250 metres (820 feet) inland from the Gulf of Mexico, separated from the ocean by sand dunes. A storm surge produced by Hurricane Ivan in 2004 flooded Lake Shelby with Gulf waters, as have other severe hurricanes in the past.
The boost of nutrients from the ocean eventually leaves its mark in the muck at the bottom of the lake. With the extra nutrients, Lake Shelby grows more algae. The temporary spike in organic production gets recorded in isotopes of carbon and nitrogen left in a layer of sediment.

A sediment core that researchers extracted from the lake's center showed 11 nutrient spikes occurring between 1320 and 2002 when the lake was flooded with a storm surge. One of the spikes corresponds to a devastating unnamed hurricane that hit in 1717.

A French ship carpenter living in Mobile at the time, André Pénicaut, recorded in his journal that the storm completely destroyed the port city while people and animals drowned in the storm-waves.
The 11 hurricanes that have pushed ocean waves into the lake did not arrive at regular intervals. Five of the storms happened in 60 years, from 1460 to 1520. They were followed by 180 years without storm surges. The core shows another two catastrophic hurricanes hitting during the 1800s and one in the mid-1900s.
Quoting 47. VAstorms:



Many friends and neighbors are still up there but fight may or not be over. Trump administration could reverse all of this within the first week in office.


We well aware of the details and the Group Leadership is in good hands.

Im on the mailing list of course.

Veterans are advancing on many fronts.

That one included.
Quoting 51. PedleyCA:


Forecast for down here is .04 over two days, time to gather up the sandbags. /sarc


Yes, it does seem so far that there's a sharp cutoff at about Point Conception for significant rainfall from Pacific storms this season.
Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
246 PM EST MON DEC 5 2016

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-052300-
Coastal Volusia-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20 NM to 60 NM Offshore-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line Out to 20 NM-Indian River-Inland Volusia-Martin-
Northern Brevard-Northern Lake-Okeechobee-Orange-Osceola-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20 NM to 60 NM Offshore-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet Out To 20 NM-Seminole-
Southern Brevard-Southern Lake-St. Lucie-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20 NM to 60 NM Offshore-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet Out to 20 NM-
246 PM EST MON DEC 5 2016

.NOW...

...Record warmth in Daytona Beach this afternoon...

Temperatures at 2 pm reached the mid 80s across much of east central
Florida with Daytona Beach breaking their record high temperature
for todays date. Through 6 pm isolated to scattered scattered
showers will develop across interior areas and move northward into
early evening. Higher rain chances are expected later tonight as a
frontal boundary moves closer to east central Florida.


&&

Additional details...including graphics are available online at:
http://www.weather.gov/mlb/blog

$$
Al Gore just had 'an extremely interesting conversation' with Trump on climate change
WP, By Jenna Johnson and Juliet Eilperin December 5 at 1:47 PM
... Gore was originally scheduled to meet just with Trump's oldest daughter, Ivanka Trump, who is not registered with a political party and has already pushed her father to adopt positions usually promoted by Democrats. Gore told reporters that after that meeting, he then had "an extremely interesting conversation" with the president-elect.
"I had a lengthy and very productive session with the president-elect. It was a sincere search for areas of common ground," Gore told reporters after spending about 90 minutes at Trump Tower in Manhattan during the lunch hour Monday. "I had a meeting beforehand with Ivanka Trump. The bulk of the time was with the president-elect, Donald Trump. I found it an extremely interesting conversation, and to be continued, and I'm just going to leave it at that." ...

... (Concerning Ivanka:) Actor Leonardo DiCaprio, for example, recently gave her a copy of his new National Geographic documentary on climate change, "Before the Flood." DiCaprio aired the documentary in October on the White House's South Lawn, before which he appeared onstage with President Obama and atmospheric scientist Katharine Hayhoe. ...
Quoting 39. PensacolaDoug:

"Under budget, on time with only 6 Man days of accident time lost."




Must of been a Trump project.








I guess that means they filed for bankruptcy.
Quoting 37. aquak9:

Here in NE Fla, I'm still barefoot.

The peanut butter fudge had to come back inside to cool off (it was just too hot out there) and the toffee had to go in the fridge.

All these snow pics and I feel like I'm not even part of this country.


Mmmmm fudge.
Subtropical Storm Eçaí has formed in the South Atlantic. Two storms already for them, and it's only December 5 (equivalent to June 5 in the Northern Hemisphere). Here is an ASCAT pass of the storm earlier this morning:

Quoting 28. GeoffreyWPB:

For West Palm Beach...the cold air stays to our north :(...




From a high of 86 to a high of 72 is a pretty nice drop in temperature.
I just hope we get some rain here in S.W. Florida and we break our streak of 51 days with no rain.

Personally, my favorite weather is highs in the 70s with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. You can enjoy outdoor activities without being too hot or too cold. I'm looking forward to opening up the windows and letting some nice cool and dry air blow through the house.
Quoting 22. RunningTrauma:



Guess I'll be busting out my fleece lined running gear sooner rather than later.


new forecast just issued for my area lower lakes shows lows of mid teens Friday night and with a little wind chills will be in single digits lake effect will likely be In play in snow belt areas as well
*unreliable model - entertainment only*
Little bunch of weather and climate news:

Two drown in flash floods as torrential rain hits southern Spain
The Local (Spain), Dec 5, 2016
A weekend of torrential rain across southern Spain caused the worst flooding in thirty years and claimed the lives of two people. ...

Southern Thailand's floods kill 12
December 5, 20167:04pm
Floods in Thailand's southern region have killed 12 and affected nearly 489,000 people since December 1.
All the victims drowned, Chatchai Promlert, director-general of the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department said on Monday.
According to the latest report issued on Monday, 10 southern provinces are affected by the flooding, which comes on the heels of heavy rainfall.


Warming U.S. Could See Extreme Rains Increase Fivefold
Climate Central, Published: December 5th, 2016

Last winter's flooding 'most extreme on record' in UK
BBC, 9 hours ago

Polar sea ice the size of India vanishes in record heat
by Reuters, Monday, 5 December 2016 16:31 GMT

Climate change likely cause of freak avalanches
Two vast ice avalanches that instantly changed the shape of a region in Tibet are being blamed on rising temperatures
Guardian, Sunday 4 December 2016 21.30 GMT

Climate Change Will Stir ‘Unimaginable’ Refugee Crisis
Climate Central/Guardian, Published: December 4th, 2016
Climate change is set to cause a refugee crisis of “unimaginable scale,” according to senior military figures, who warn that global warming is the greatest security threat of the 21st century and that mass migration will become the “new normal”.
The generals said the impacts of climate change were already factors in the conflicts driving a current crisis of migration into Europe, having been linked to the Arab Spring, the war in Syria and the Boko Haram terrorist insurgency. ...


Brazilian drought pushes coffee prices up, hurts farmers
Jeffrey T. Lewis, Katherine Dunn, The Wall Street Journal, 12:00AM December 6, 2016
Even as the rains begin to fall, the drought that forced Brazilian farmers like Carlos Babilon to dig up their coffee trees is set to continue to affect prices in the coffee market.
Mr Babilon has uprooted about 8000 coffee trees on his farm in Espirito Santo, a crucial Brazilian coffee-producing state that harvests the robusta bean that goes into much of the world’s instant coffee. Prolonged drought here has meant the tress were too parched to save, especially the older ones, Mr Babilon, a fourth-generation farmer, said.
Nearly three years of dry weather in this southeastern part of Brazil has crippled production, dented farmers’ incomes and helped push world coffee prices to multi-year highs. ...


Greetings from Germany where it's still quite cold, but now clear skies are gone in some valleys as fog is moving in.
Quoting 32. BayFog:

Classic setup for a Hawaiian tap underway for California. Dry cold front and associated jet shifting southward over the state, opening up the pathway for subtropical moisture that's been dumping rain over the islands the past few days.


Friday, Sacramento NWS:
"this system brings along the Atmospheric
River, we could be looking at some heavy rainfall, especially for
the Sierra locations"
We were supposed to see wintry mix last night here in Lancaster, PA, but afaik it poured only rain off and on through the night. Temperatures at the surface bottomed out at 35 and the nearby airport only recorded rain. State College boosted the temperatures slightly for this week and eliminated two other chances to see some wintry precip for the week.
Winter storm warning in effect for:
City of Winnipeg
A major winter storm is expected.

Significant snow and blowing snow for southern Manitoba lasting through mid-week.

A low pressure system approaching southern Manitoba continues to intensify. Snow, heavy at times, has already developed over the southwest corner of the province and will continue through Wednesday. Snow will also spread into the Red River Valley and the southeast tonight. General total amounts of 15 to 30 cm are expected over the warned area through Wednesday morning, and higher amounts are possible, especially over the southwest. Meanwhile, northerly winds gusting to 50 or 60 km/h will develop Monday night or Tuesday over most areas. Visibilities will be significantly reduced at times in snow and blowing snow for most of Tuesday and into Wednesday as well. While some uncertainty remains in the exact timing of the heaviest snow and strongest winds, there is potential for sustained blizzard conditions over parts of the warned area.

The snow and wind will gradually ease Wednesday night. Bitterly cold arctic air sweeps in behind this system, with lows below -20 degrees Celsius expected by the end of the week accompanied by wind chill values in the -30 to -35 range.
Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow. Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions. Visibility will be suddenly reduced to near zero at times in heavy snow and blowing snow. Poor weather conditions may contribute to transportation delays. There may be a significant impact on rush hour traffic in urban areas. Public Safety Canada encourages everyone to make an emergency plan and get an emergency kit with drinking water, food, medicine, a first-aid kit and a flashlight. For information on emergency plans and kits go to http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/

Winter storm warnings are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.storm.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #MBStorm.
water keepers need too move out
bitter cold is coming soon
ya got 2 days
James Just James
‏@purpleidea

#Montreal today

Winter storm warning in effect for:
R.M. of Antler including Redvers Antler and Wauchope
R.M. of Argyle including Gainsborough and Carievale
R.M. of Brock including Arcola and Kisbey
R.M. of Browning including Lampman
R.M. of Coalfields including Bienfait and North Portal
R.M. of Enniskillen including Oxbow and Northgate
R.M. of Moose Creek including Alameda
R.M. of Moose Mountain including Carlyle and Manor
R.M. of Mount Pleasant including Carnduff
R.M. of Reciprocity including Alida
R.M. of Storthoaks including Storthoaks and Fertile
R.M. of Tecumseh including Stoughton Forget and Heward


Hazardous winter conditions are expected.

Heavy snow continues in southeastern Saskatchewan this afternoon with up to 25 cm reported at Estevan as of 1 PM CST. General snowfall totals in the warning area should be in the 20 to 30 cm range by Tuesday morning. In addition, northwesterly gusts of 50 to 70 km/h will result in near-zero visibility at times in snow and blowing snow continuing tonight, while wind chill values will fall near to the -30 mark by morning.

The heaviest snow will be done by Tuesday morning and visibilities will begin to improve as well. However, persistent light snow, cold wind chill values, and more localized blowing snow will continue for the day Tuesday.
Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow. Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.storm.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #SKStorm.
Quoting 68. Xandra:

James Just James
‏@purpleidea

#Montreal today




Yikes, what a scene, it doesn't look like anyone got hurt, thankfully no pedestrians in the way.
cam images are nw n ne of standing rock ND
ND/Can(Sask.) border area



OBXLurker- if you want the recipe for PB fudge, visit my blog and I can post it later. It's real easy.

Actually that goes for anyone if they want an easy recipe for PB fudge.
Quoting 37. aquak9:

Here in NE Fla, I'm still barefoot.

The peanut butter fudge had to come back inside to cool off (it was just too hot out there) and the toffee had to go in the fridge.

All these snow pics and I feel like I'm not even part of this country.


You will get at least a short chill this coming weekend 12/9 to 12/11. Its starting to look like much modified arctic air for the Mid Atlantic which means cold aloft but not as cold as might be first thought at the surface especially at night. I'm thinking we may not decouple at all and stay in the 20s at night with wind. It will still feel cold. If my Citrus did not have fruit I would leave it out in that but with fruit I'm not taking chances. I have 20+ large lemons for my wife's pies.
Quoting 69. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Winter storm warning in effect for:
R.M. of Antler including Redvers Antler and Wauchope
R.M. of Argyle including Gainsborough and Carievale
R.M. of Brock including Arcola and Kisbey
R.M. of Browning including Lampman
R.M. of Coalfields including Bienfait and North Portal
R.M. of Enniskillen including Oxbow and Northgate
R.M. of Moose Creek including Alameda
R.M. of Moose Mountain including Carlyle and Manor
R.M. of Mount Pleasant including Carnduff
R.M. of Reciprocity including Alida
R.M. of Storthoaks including Storthoaks and Fertile
R.M. of Tecumseh including Stoughton Forget and Heward


Hazardous winter conditions are expected.

Heavy snow continues in southeastern Saskatchewan this afternoon with up to 25 cm reported at Estevan as of 1 PM CST. General snowfall totals in the warning area should be in the 20 to 30 cm range by Tuesday morning. In addition, northwesterly gusts of 50 to 70 km/h will result in near-zero visibility at times in snow and blowing snow continuing tonight, while wind chill values will fall near to the -30 mark by morning.

The heaviest snow will be done by Tuesday morning and visibilities will begin to improve as well. However, persistent light snow, cold wind chill values, and more localized blowing snow will continue for the day Tuesday.
Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow. Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.storm.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #SKStorm.


DC area doesn't get much snow many winters but when we do we can get huge dumps and 30-40cm in one storm has happened numerous times (1966, 1979, 1983, 1987, 1996, 2003, 2009, 2010, 2016). However we don't get the true blizzard conditions experienced in the Plains and Prairie provinces when lots of what's on the ground starts to blow. Y'all can legitimately laugh at what us easterners call blizzards.


But what we get will (the rare times we get it) overwhelm your snowblowers unless they're industrial strength.
And it's dense and heavy and melts down to A LOT of water, sometimes over 3" from a single storm.
Quoting 59. HurricaneFan:

Subtropical Storm Eçaí has formed in the South Atlantic. ...





Surface analysis (Ecai at 978mb). Source.


Source: Tempestade subtropical Eçaí provoca ventania em SC
Quoting 39. PensacolaDoug:

"Under budget, on time with only 6 Man days of accident time lost."




Must of been a Trump project.









I noticed no one plussed your comment but a bunch plussed the lame response.
Quoting 43. JNFlori30A:

Man oh man, what I would give for comprehensive met. data going back 500 years!




I'll check some of my old journals from when I was a kid. I do remember the winter of 1607-1608 as being particularly brutal. It was so cold we would let in animals in the house to keep us warm. Some people objected, which I think is where the expression "Let's not be sheepish" might have arisen.
Quoting 81. luvtogolf:



I noticed no one plussed your comment but a bunch plussed the lame response.



It must be this stupid, uneducated community (of science enthusiasts). Amiright?

Quoting 81. luvtogolf:



I noticed no one plussed your comment but a bunch plussed the lame response.

Quoting 82. PensacolaDoug:



And then out-smarted all the dems (who have been attempting to bankrupt the US) to win the electoral college and become President.


That's right, and spent half the money She did to do it. In fact, of the 3,141 counties in the United States, Trump won 3,084 of them while Clinton only won 57. She did win the popular vote by about 2 million but, only because the 5 counties that encompass NYC, (Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Richmond & Queens) gave her over 2 million more votes than Trump. (Clinton only won 4 of these counties; Trump won Richmond). These 5 counties alone, more than accounted for Clinton winning the popular vote of the entire country.
Quoting 86. RichardBLong:



That's right, and spent half the money doing it at that. Fun Fact:
...




Fun Fact: Trump hates facts and in fact doesn't accept even the facts that you list. Rather he likes to believe and parrot on twitter stupid conspiracy crap coming out of Alex Jones that makes the claim that millions of Hillary's votes were from dead people and illegal aliens.

source

EDIT: And just to stay on topic of weather.... here is Alex Jones on "Weather"
Blizzard Warning now posted for much of North Dakota as well as part of South Dakota, Montana and Minnesota.
Researchers study sea spray to improve hurricane intensity forecasting
December 5, 2016
A University of Miami (UM) Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science research team is studying sea spray to help improve forecasting of hurricanes and tropical cyclones.
In a recent study, the scientists found that in high winds conditions the amount of large sea spray droplets (over 0.5 milimeters in diameter) generated is as much as 1000 times more than previously thought.
Sea spray droplets are aerosol water particles that are ejected into the atmosphere as waves break at the ocean surface. The evaporation of sea spray is thought to contribute to the transfer of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, which accelerate winds in a storm, potentially impacting its intensity. ...

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2016-12-sea-hurricane-intensi ty.html#jCp


Good night and have a nice day of Santa Claus. Above a pic from our Christmas Market - sort of a "Santanado" - in Mainz I took yesterday :-)
Beautiful shield of needed rain!
91. bwi
1056mb high, heading down the chute

I couldn't find a Hydra Xmas Blow Up one, so I went with the Xmas Dragon instead.

I'm going with "Puff".

Merry Christmas from us to you.





Quoting 91. bwi:

1056mb high, heading down the chute





Ooofh'......

Gadzook's!!




Quoting 53. Patrap:



We well aware of the details and the Group Leadership is in good hands.

Im on the mailing list of course.

Veterans are advancing on many fronts.

That one included.


I considered going up to add one more veteran to the mix. Friend of mine said wait until we need more people. Serious winter happening there right now and they might not need more mouths to feed and people to shelter. I know they aren't leaving now.
Today,..we offered the world a better way.

And a sitting Native American Chief forgave us..

....all.

Remember this day.

Forgiveness Ceremony Unites Veterans And Natives At Standing Rock Casino
“We came. We fought you. We took your land. We signed treaties that we broke.”


"Many of us, me particularly, are from the units that have hurt you over the many years. We came. We fought you. We took your land. We signed treaties that we broke. We stole minerals from your sacred hills. We blasted the faces of our presidents onto your sacred mountain. When we took still more land, and we took your children, and we tried to make you speak our language, and we tried to eliminate your language that God gave you, that the Creator gave you, we didn’t respect you, we polluted your Earth, we’ve hurt you in so many ways. But we’ve come to say that we are sorry, we are at your service, and we beg for your forgiveness." -- Wes Clark Jr., the son of retired U.S. Army general and former NATO supreme commander Wesley Clark Sr.

In response, Lakota Chief Leonard Crow Dog offered forgiveness and urged world peace, responding “we do not own the land, the land owns us.”

Imagination Time!!!

There is a room. This room is huge, 5 times bigger than the worlds biggest mall. It is also around 3 miles tall. The bottom half a mile or so is covered with water with heaters to keep the water around 100 degrees. There is a preexisting circulation in the center. . . Mysterious indeed.

Time starts and water slowly begins to evaporate. The steam gathers around the prevalent vortex. So much steam gathers that it covers the circulation. Then, the steam rises to certain height as it begins to rain. Thunderclaps are heard, resounding throughout the building. The storms begin to organize around the circulation which seems to become more and more evident every second. Winds begin to increase as the air pressure in the room drops. The deep convection begins to organize further. A wall of roaring winds and pouring rain begins to forms just outside the circulation. The center begins to organize further. A ragged area calm forms, becoming more defined every second.

A hurricane is born as very privileged people from the highly esteemed internet log known as Category 6 gather on the ceiling staring down into the monsters eye.

Imagination time is over, now back to normal life! Please don't ban me for posting incoherent nonsense!
We could see a few flakes flying Thursday morning.



Quoting 84. OKsky:



It must be this stupid, uneducated community (of science enthusiasts). Amiright?




yeah, the complaints about the negative comments here regarding the incoming president seem silly. this is a science-based climate and weather blog and the new guy in the WH denies basic science.

it's like complaining on a biology forum that people are giving short shrift to a politician who denies evolution.
Quoting 57. ACSeattle:


I guess that means they filed for bankruptcy.


And used illegal workers and shipped the ice from "Gina".
Wait am I allowed to post nonsense like post 96?
It has to do with weather
Over 2 inches of much needed drought relief rain in my gauge so far, most cells have been behaved despite increasing shear, but this one in SW Georgia looks pretty nasty.

TORNADO WARNING
GAC087-131-205-253-060015-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0042.161205T2338Z-161206T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
638 PM EST MON DEC 5 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL DECATUR COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
NORTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
NORTHWESTERN GRADY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 715 PM EST

* AT 637 PM EST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST BAINBRIDGE...OR 8
MILES WEST OF BAINBRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BAINBRIDGE AND WEST BAINBRIDGE AROUND 650 PM EST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
HANOVER...VADA...PEOPLES STILL...AUSMAC...HARRELLS STILL...STEINHAM
STORE... CLIMAX...DECATUR CO A/P...REYNOLDSVILLE AND CYRENE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8437 3094 8421 3078 8475 3089 8482
3108 8453 3108 8451 3109 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 240DEG 37KT 3086 8471

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

09-FOURNIER
Quoting 57. ACSeattle:


I guess that means they filed for bankruptcy.

Probably stiffed the subs.

They forecast less than an inch of snow today here in Breckenridge, CO. We're at 4-5 inches at the moment and still dumping.
Record type PWATS can do dat.

"Sneaux, everywhere...."


105. thunk
Quoting 86. RichardBLong:



That's right, and spent half the money She did to do it. In fact, of the 3,141 counties in the United States, Trump won 3,084 of them while Clinton only won 57. She did win the popular vote by about 2 million but, only because the 5 counties that encompass NYC, (Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Richmond & Queens) gave her over 2 million more votes than Trump. (Clinton only won 4 of these counties; Trump won Richmond). These 5 counties alone, more than accounted for Clinton winning the popular vote of the entire country.


I shouldn't be responding to political comments, but...
1)Patent nonsense. Clinton won 58 counties in Texas and Georgia alone. And land doesn't vote, people do.
2)If NYC's votes don't count, then NYC's candidates don't either; hence, Clinton wins by default.

Quoting 97. washingtonian115:





Maybe it's just me, but I find that even creepier than your 'Killer Klownz' avatar series.
Quoting 105. thunk:


I shouldn't be responding to political comments, but...
1)Patent nonsense. Clinton won 58 counties in Texas and Georgia alone. And land doesn't vote, people do.
2)If NYC's votes don't count, then NYC's candidates don't either; hence, Clinton wins by default.


She lost. Move on.
Quoting 106. no1der:


Maybe it's just me, but I find that even creepier than your 'Killer Klownz' avatar series.
The bear is doing the snow dance.
Quoting 92. Patrap:

I couldn't find a Hydra Xmas Blow Up one, so I went with the Xmas Dragon instead.

I'm going with "Puff".

Merry Christmas from us to you.







How old is your Norfolk Island Pine (Araucaria excelsa)?
Quoting 90. Abacosurf:

Beautiful shield of needed rain!


It's a rainy night in Jaw-jah

Fact Check

Counting Blue Counties
Misleading maps and distorted data led to an inaccurate rumor that Donald Trump won 3,084 of America's 3,141 counties.
Quoting 86. RichardBLong:



That's right, and spent half the money She did to do it. In fact, of the 3,141 counties in the United States, Trump won 3,084 of them while Clinton only won 57. She did win the popular vote by about 2 million but, only because the 5 counties that encompass NYC, (Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Richmond & Queens) gave her over 2 million more votes than Trump. (Clinton only won 4 of these counties; Trump won Richmond). These 5 counties alone, more than accounted for Clinton winning the popular vote of the entire country.

Quoting 113. krumholtz:


Fact Check

Counting Blue Counties
Misleading maps and distorted data led to an inaccurate rumor that Donald Trump won 3,084 of America's 3,141 counties.



And your point is? The election was a month ago. Cold weather coming, light up the fire place.
Problems in North Dakota, I-94 shutdown basically across the state with overpasses drifting shut and vehicles blocking the roadway. Conditions going downhill fast. No travel advised in many areas
Quoting 110. ACSeattle:


How old is your Norfolk Island Pine (Araucaria excelsa)?


It has gone from a single dried almost dead single stalk in a awful green vase someone had it in. When I planted it almost 8 mths ago,..it has grown 3 ft.

And it is a shade maker already. It loves the sediment here. Its a amazing fractal experience indeed.

Many would not have noted it.

Your instinct is great.

Thanks for the obs and werds too.
Quoting 115. luvtogolf:



And your point is?

The truth and nothing but the truth!
Quoting 115. luvtogolf:



And your point is? The election was a month ago. Cold weather coming, light up the fire place.


so somebody spouts complete disinformation and you're fine with it, but the moment someone else goes to correct it you're all quick to change the subject?
Quoting 37. aquak9:

Here in NE Fla, I'm still barefoot.

The peanut butter fudge had to come back inside to cool off (it was just too hot out there) and the toffee had to go in the fridge.

All these snow pics and I feel like I'm not even part of this country.
No you're not. I'm still barefoot. :) Well, I was when I saw your comment. Right now I have socks on. Will need longjohns soon. Otherwise I hope I am well enough prepared for this two-day cold snap's arrival.

(image of firewood removed for privacy's sake)

No precip expected or I'd invite you out here to the middle to see some snow.

Beautiful mid-50s today cooled some by strong south wind. Probably will get considerably colder overnight when the front rolls in and the wind turns. Single digit wind chilis (Add: Freudian typo, lpl) predicted Wednesday and Thurs. At least they're progged as single digits above zero. ;)
From another wu member on FB just now.

Meanwhile, in Canada today.

second video down..
Tallahassee sounding came in incredibly moist for December:



PW of 2.18 and adequate instability and plenty of shear. It's amazing there haven't been more warnings.
Researchers study sea spray to improve hurricane intensity forecasting

Link
127. ronnm
Headlines like this always remind me of the specifity of weather reporting.
Here, central NM we typically get LA weather but a bit colder and wetter..

Anyway real warm today no clouds. Cold front maybe to be pushing through Wed, but this season I will believe it when I see it.
blog hole
130. elioe
Likely upcoming Cyclone Vardah in the Bay of Bengal

99W is getting the feathery look I associate with improving outflow and thus with a healthy, intensifying cyclone :

0610z, Dec 6. Himawari-8, airmass. Source : RAMMB-CIRA (link).
Fair convergence/divergence and vorticity values close to the system's center, along with good vorticity alignment between lower, mid and upper levels at the moment : see CIMSS Tropical Cyclones (link).
Odisha, Seemandhra states (Union of India) could be in trouble later this week.
132. MahFL
Torrential rain here on and off all night long in Orange Park. Totals to follow at 7 am....Thunder too.

Good grief .... 6AM and it is 77 degrees in the Tampa area. I look here and folks are posting snow pics.

Been windy here since yesterday afternoon .... C'mon, rain already! We haven't had a decent rain in a couple months.
Winter, lol.


05.12.2016: Crazy morning outside the office, Montreal, QC, by Samantha Dean (youtube)
According to German media nobody got injured, fortunately.
The downside of high pressure in winter nowadays with a double whammy in Paris this morning:



Paris makes public transport free to battle pollution spike
The Local (France), 6 December 2016, 10:15 CET+01:00
A spike in air pollution in Paris has pushed authorities on Tuesday to bar many drivers from using their cars, but they've also made public transport free for the day. Except the public transport isn't all working. ...

Trains between Paris and Charles de Gaulle airport suspended
The Local (France), 6 December 2016, 11:57 CET+01:00
Air travellers getting to and from Paris' Charles de Gaulle airport faced travel chaos on Tuesday after an accident on the rail link to the city centre put the line out of action for the whole day. ...
The breakdown comes on a day when authorities in Paris have made public transport free in a bid to battle a spike in air pollution. Half of drivers have been ordered to leave their cars at home, meaning public transport is more in demand than normal....
136. MahFL
2.22 in of rain fell overnight, it's still raining, here in Orange Park.
Aaawww:
Semyon the cat is rescued after all four paws got frozen in ice at a glacial minus 35C (-31F)
By The Siberian Times, 02 December 2016 (with video)

Won't happen in Iceland right now, though.
Enjoying Iceland’s December heatwave?
Iceland Monitor | Mon 5 Dec 2016 | 14.45 GMT
Temperatures in Reykjavik are currently considerably higher than the seasonal averages, with some parts of the country enjoying distinctly ‘summery’ conditions. Despite chillier weather today, forecasts show milder temperatures returning tomorrow, similar to those seen since December began. The capital Reykjavik is expected to see 6-8°C (43-46°F) today and tomorrow – significantly higher than the -0.2C (31°F) December average over the past thirty years. The air is currently three times warmer, on the Celsius scale, than even the thirty-year average maximum for December, 2.2°C. Dalatangi, on the far east coast of Iceland, registered a temperature of 16°C (61°F) at the weekend – a temperature which wouldn’t be disappointing at the height of Icelandic summer!

Have a nice morning and day, everyone.
'2.22 in of rain fell overnight, it's still raining, here in Orange Park.'

The rain train is slowly moving south toward my place north of Ocala. Hopefully, it will stay together long enough to give me that much rain.
Good Morning Folks. We had some very welcome rain in North Florida between last evening and this morning as well as other parts of the SE. However, what has been missing for several weeks now until this coming weekend (with a dip towards freezing on Sat morning) has been "Winter". We had one or two tornado watches last evening as the main front came through but no severe t-storms; it was more of a tropical type steady rain for most of the night and again this morning.

Over the course of the last several years, we would have already had about 2-3 deep frontal passages, accompanied by tornado watches, between October and December; this is the first one of this season and the first freeze warning with temps rising back up to the low 70's by Monday (going into Mid-December)..........As usual, our coldest month here is normally February but the temps will probably rebound nicely again by late March.


Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop



And the big picture for Conus today: that deep low pressure system pushing into Canada and the low now over Georgia appear to be the main weather drivers today:







Wow saw a report of 11.63" of rain in Gilchrist County just NW of Gainesville. Jacksonville now up to 4" so far today. Incredible rainfall totals coming in this morning.


It looks like a band of storms stalled last night across the FL Big Bend and there is a swath of 5" to 10" plus of rain from there extending toward Jax.
Quoting 98. schwankmoe:



yeah, the complaints about the negative comments here regarding the incoming president seem silly. this is a science-based climate and weather blog and the new guy in the WH denies basic science.

it's like complaining on a biology forum that people are giving short shrift to a politician who denies evolution.
You mean this is a climate change blog too, I thought Dr. Rood had a blog to discuss such things, and this was a very good weather blog, oh well, some things change for the worse.
WASHINGTON, ARLINGTON, Va., SCHAUMBURG, Ill. and OTTAWA, Nov. 30, 2016 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Today, organizations representing the actuarial profession in the United States and Canada launched the Actuaries Climate Index™ (ACI), which provides a quarterly measure of changes in extreme weather events and sea levels, available online at www.ActuariesClimateIndex.org. This index is based on analysis of quarterly seasonal data for six different index components collected from 1961 to winter 2016, compared to the thirty-year reference period of 1961 to 1990. The Actuaries Climate Index™ is an educational tool designed to help inform actuaries, public policymakers, and the general public about climate trends and their potential impact.

The Actuaries Climate Index™ looks at the continental United States and Canada, placed into 12 regions. Higher index values indicate an increase in the occurrence of extreme weather events. The latest Actuaries Climate Index™ values show an increase in the impact of extreme weather events, such as high temperature, heavy precipitation and drought.


Link

The six climate index components are:


Frequency of temperatures above the 90th percentile;
Frequency of temperatures below the 10th percentile;
Maximum 5-day rainfall in the month;
Consecutive dry days;
Winds above the 90th percentile; and
Sea level.
Quoting 120. schwankmoe:



so somebody spouts complete disinformation and you're fine with it, but the moment someone else goes to correct it you're all quick to change the subject?


Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!
In the water vapor image, what do you make of the little north-south axis over south central California?  (A novice question.)  Is it something real?

Quoting 140. weathermanwannabe:

And the big picture for Conus today: that deep low pressure system pushing into Canada and the low now over Georgia appear to be the main weather drivers today:








Quoting 145. secondgee:


Nice catch; that is precip (probably a mixture of snow and rain) forming off of the tops of parts of the Sierra Nevada mountains flowing to the East along the jet stream:


Map/Still:Sierra Nevada.



148. MahFL
Since 7am another 1.1 in of rain has fallen (storm total now 2.3 in ), more to come, here in Orange Park.


Himalayas at increased risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

Rising temperatures have led to the melting of glaciers and the significant growth of the area of glacier lakes on the world's highest mountain range, according to researchers at the Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment under the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Recent research showed that a total of 401 new glacier lakes have been formed from 1990 to 2015, and the area of glacier lakes has increased by 14.1 percent, raising the possibility of GLOF that endangers the lives of people living downstream in Nepal and China's Tibetan Autonomous Region.

Scientists said that among the over 5,000 glacier lakes in the Himalayas, around 118 are expanding at high speeds, including 69 located in Tibet Autonomous Region, where dozens of GLOF events have already taken place since the beginning of the 20th century.
150. MahFL
Quoting 145. secondgee:

In the water vapor image, what do you make of the little north-south axis over south central California? (A novice question.) Is it something real?


The southern Sierra mountains are squeezing out moisture due to up-slope air motion.

It's cloudy and overcast today over Area 51....................
Quoting 118. Patrap:



It has gone from a single dried almost dead single stalk in a awful green vase someone had it in. When I planted it almost 8 mths ago,..it has grown 3 ft.

And it is a shade maker already. It loves the sediment here. Its a amazing fractal experience indeed.

Many would not have noted it.

Your instinct is great.

Thanks for the obs and werds too.


Sounds similar to my experience with my macadamia tree. My mom gave it too me because it had died in the pot. It still seemed a little life in the trunk so I planted it in the remains of a rotted palm tree stump, and it took off. I now get thousands of nuts each year and the tree is 30' tall!
Floods in Thailand kill 14. Nakhon Si Thammarat has had 447 mm of precipitation in the past 7 days, 380 mm more than the average for this time of year.

Link
Poor MAHFL musta thought he was gonna float away-

and he almost did. We've had nearly 4" in coastal NE Fla since midnite. Certainly not expecting THAT.

Hey BAREFOOT! I might hafta use socks this weekend, too! yellow ones w/smiley faces!
since matthew we have had a run of amazingly great weather here in e cen florida. maybe get a shower today
With two hours at a >1 inch/hr rain rate, plus a few more downpours, the lettuce is in shambles. Plain rain shouldn't have caused this much damage.





I was planning on eating that lettuce for months. Don't know if it's going to come back or not.
NASA spots electric-blue clouds over Antarctica

"Computer models suggest that as greenhouses gasses warm the lower levels in the atmosphere, the upper layers cool. That scenario is conducive to these high clouds forming."
Quoting 155. islander101010:

since matthew we have had a run of amazingly great weather here in e cen florida. maybe get a shower today


Yeah, here in Fort Myers we got a brief shower back on October 15th and it's been bone dry ever since. Everyday sunny and beautiful for over 50 days straight.
Hopefully, today is our day to finally get some rain. It's very warm and humid this morning. Local met says we should see rain around 2-3 pm.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 134. barbamz:

Winter, lol.


05.12.2016: Crazy morning outside the office, Montreal, QC, by Samantha Dean (youtube)
According to German media nobody got injured, fortunately.


I was in Roanoke VA in 1971 when we experienced that kind of ice. We were driving to work in a carpool in a four wheel drive jeep with the wheels all locked-in. (We used to lock the hubs to engage the four wheel drive.) Crossing a bridge at walking speed, on level ground, we hit the guard rail in slow motion. We had to get out and push the jeep off the bridge. We didn't have cameras so we weren't able to share the event. It resides only in my memory.
Thanks for the video.
The hardest thing to do is take your foot OFF the brake.