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U.S. vulnerability to sea level rise

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:04 PM GMT on June 23, 2009

In the last century, sea level rose 5 - 6 inches (13 - 15 cm) more than the global average of 7 inches (18 cm) along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, because coastal lands there are sinking. Over 50% of the U.S. coastline is vulnerable or highly vulnerable to sea level rise, according to the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). In the U.S., relative sea level rise (the combined effects of global sea level rise plus the fact the land is sinking) is highest along the Mississippi River Delta in Louisiana, where relative sea level rises of 3.2 ft (.98 meters) have been observed during the 20th century. This is one of the highest relative sea level rises in the world. According to the NOAA Tides and Currents sea level rise interactive tool, the U.S. tide gauges that have shown the highest rates of sea level rise over the past century are at Grand Island, LA (1.8 ft rise since 1947), Galveston, TX (1.1 ft since 1957), and Chesapeake Bay, VA (0.6 feet since 1975). Alaska and some areas along the Pacific Northwest coast are at low risk of sea level rise, because the relative sea level is actually falling at present. Land in these regions is rising as it recovers from removal of the weight of the great ice sheets that covered much of North America during the last Ice Age. For example, relative sea level at Kodiak Island, Alaska has fallen by 1.1 feet since 1975, despite the fact global sea level has been increasing.


Figure 1. Twentieth century annual relative sea-level rise rates in mm/year along the U.S. coast. The higher rates for Louisiana (9.85 millimeters [mm] per year, about 3.3 ft/century) and the mid-Atlantic region (1.75 to 4.42 mm per year, 0.6 - 1.4 ft/century) are due to land subsidence. Sea level is stable or dropping relative to the land in the Pacific Northwest, as indicated by the negative values, where the land is tectonically active or rebounding upward in response to the melting of ice sheets since the last Ice Age. Image credit: Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region (data from Zervas, 2001).

U.S. Coastal Vulnerability
The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) takes into account six factors:

1) The geology of the coast. Barrier islands, river deltas, and marshes are the most vulnerable to erosion and sea level rise, while steep, rocky cliff shores are the least. Sheltered bays like Galveston Bay and Tampa Bay are less vulnerable than the exposed coasts. (Note, however, that hurricane storm surges are typically higher in sheltered bays, at least for slow-moving storms).

2) How steep the land near the coast is. Gently sloping lands are the most vulnerable. In the Gulf Coast region, the slope variable has the highest risk ranking along the Louisiana coast, the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi, and the southwest Florida coast.

3) The local rate of sea level rise. The sea level is rising faster along the western Gulf of Mexico than the eastern Gulf. The highest rates of sea-level rise in the Gulf of Mexico (and in the United States) are in the Mississippi delta region (10 mm/yr, or 1 inch/2.5 years).

4) The amount of shoreline erosion going on. Most of the U.S. coast is moderately or severely eroding, and very few areas are gaining (Figure 2).

5) The mean tidal range. Shores that have a large difference between low and high tide are less likely to get a significant storm tide--the height above mean sea level of the sum of the storm surge plus the tide. For example, in a region like Maine, which has a 12 ft range between low and high tide, a storm having a 9 ft storm surge will have a storm tide below local high tide for a quarter of a tidal cycle. Shores with a very narrow tidal range (e.g., the 2 ft tidal range common along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast) will get a storm tide of 8 - 10 feet with the 9 ft storm surge in the above example. Shorelines with a narrow tidal range always get high storm tides regardless of when the storm surge hits.

6) How high the waves at shore are. Obviously, shores that experience higher wave heights are at greater risk. In the Gulf of Mexico, wave energy is highest along sections of the Texas coast and on the southern tip of the Mississippi delta.

Figure 2. Shoreline change around the United States based on surveys over the past century. All 30 coastal states are experiencing overall erosion due to natural processes (e.g., storms, sea-level rise) and human activity. If the shoreline is uncolored, no data was available. Image credit: USGS, 1985, and taken from Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region).

The Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) web page gives detailed maps of each section of the U.S. coast, along with specific reasons why each portion of the coast was assigned the ranking it got. A brief summary:

The Gulf Coast
The Gulf Coast has 55% of its length in the "very high" or "high" vulnerability range. Fully 41% of the coast falls in the "very high" range, far more than the 28% in that category along the Pacific coast and 23% along the Atlantic coast. The region around New Orleans is the most vulnerable region of the entire U.S. coast. The Florida Panhandle, as well as the West Florida coast, are at low to moderate risk because the land is not sinking much, wave heights are lower, and the slope of the land is relatively steep near the coast. The Texas coast is considered to be at a high to very high risk because of the relatively high mean wave height, sinking land, and shallow coastal slope.

The East Coast
The East Coast has 50% of its length in the "very high" or "high" vulnerability range. The highest vulnerability areas are typically high-energy coastlines where the regional coastal slope is low and where the major landform type is a barrier island. A significant exception to this is found in the lower Chesapeake Bay. Here, the low coastal slope, vulnerable landform type (salt marsh) and high rate of relative sea-level rise combine for a high CVI value. The coastline of northern New England, particularly Maine, shows a relatively low vulnerability to future sea-level rise. This is primarily due to the steep coastal slopes and rocky shoreline characteristic of the region, as well as the large tidal range.

The Pacific Coast
The Pacific Coast has 50% of its length in the "very high" or "high" vulnerability range. Areas of very high vulnerability include the San Francisco - Monterey Bay coast and in southern California from San Luis Obispo to San Diego, where the coast is most highly populated. The highest vulnerability areas are typically lower-lying beach areas. The low risk, least vulnerable areas generally occur at rocky headlands along cliffed coasts where the coastal slope is steep, relative sea-level is falling, tide range is large, and wave energy is lower. Examples of these areas are the northern coast of Washington, Monterey, and Cape Mendocino, California.


Figure 3. The Coast Vulnerability Index (CVI) for the U.S.

References
Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region.

National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: Preliminary Results for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast (USGS, 2000).

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Sea level rise

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

For those of you that have Vista, I recommend a powerful magnet very near your hard drive.

Just kidding, futuremet.

And others: do NOT place a magnet near your harddrive unless you do no like your software or data.
1002. WxLogic
Quoting atmoaggie:
For those of you that have Vista, I recommend a powerful magnet very near your hard drive.

Just kidding, futuremet.

And others: do NOT place a magnet near your harddrive unless you do no like your software or data.


Hehe... got to have the disclaimer... since there's always someone that actually does it and then ask why they can't get into their OS anymore. :P
Quoting stormpetrol:

Yep, I took a drive East End on Monday and it was a good rain from Bodden Town all the way to East End, right now we're having a fairly decent rain In South Sound where I live, but as you know it can being raining at your place and 300 feet away not a drop is falling.
Just finished with a good downpour up here too. My grass is finally coming back to life.
Good Evening,

Current temperature here in PR

82 F
88 F Heat Index

And is really Hot so I can't imagine what a 100 F feels!

I really miss the low 70 F that we get most of the tropical winter.
1005. Ossqss
Interesting article if anyone would want to convert one of our fellow bloggers weather related Youtube videos to an MP3 :-)

Ensure you understand any applicable copyright laws if considering this item.


Wow, impressive wave exiting the coast.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wow, impressive wave exiting the coast.
the flags will have to rise
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting article if anyone would want to convert one of our fellow bloggers weather related Youtube videos to an MP3 :-)

Ensure you understand any applicable copyright laws if considering this item.




Part of their website says it converts the video to the mp3, and some of it says the audio. So does it extract both the video and
the audio, or just the audio to listen to?
1010. Patrap
1011. Ossqss
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Part of their website says it converts the video to the mp3, and some of it says the audio. So does it extract both the video and
the audio, or just the audio to listen to?


MP3's are audio only, you are talking about MP4's
1012. 0741
what we need watch to see if wave coming off afica going weaking after it leave coast
1013. GOM
Quoting atmoaggie:
For those of you that have Vista, I recommend a powerful magnet very near your hard drive.

Just kidding, futuremet.

And others: do NOT place a magnet near your harddrive unless you do no like your software or data.




Whoah....post#1010!

Quoting Ossqss:


MP3's are audio only, you are talking about MP4's


oops thats what I meant, thanks!
Patrap - Trying to start a riot in here by showing a blob starting in the GOM? LOL
1016. Ossqss
Quoting atmoaggie:
For those of you that have Vista, I recommend a powerful magnet very near your hard drive.

Just kidding, futuremet.

And others: do NOT place a magnet near your harddrive unless you do no like your software or data.


Just for the record, it would take a very, very strong magnet to wipe a drive. It is mostly a very strong magnet itself.

If you purposely want to destroy one, use a sledge hammer repeatedly before disposal. Don't count on a magnet doing the job it probably will not do it.

Never toss out any hard drive until you completely destroy it.
did ya get any rain out of that pat
anyone know what time friday the geos-o rocket is scheduled to launch from the cape?????
Quoting Levi32:


Best I could find:

Most prominent differences are that it's warmer off of New England and in the east Pacific this year than 2004, but 2004 was warmer in the eastern Atlantic, and very slightly warmer in the Gulf of Mexico than this year, but this is only one analysis. The Caribbean was about the same temperature.

June 13, 2004:



June 13, 2009:

Look at the Indian Ocean differences 2004 -2009.
Quoting stillwaiting:
anyone know what time friday the geos-o rocket is scheduled to launch from the cape?????


Launch window: 2214-2314 GMT (6:14-7:14 p.m. EDT)

Spaceflightnow
Naw - Pat's just showing off - it dropped the temp to something near tolerable at Poydras and St. Charles!
Quoting 0741:
what we need watch to see if wave coming off afica going weaking after it leave coast


50kt shear no chance.
1023. Ossqss
Quoting stillwaiting:
anyone know what time friday the geos-o rocket is scheduled to launch from the cape?????


Stillwaiting, did ya get any of that nasty storm last night?
Quoting Patrap:


Is the blob going to regenerate, looking at the GOM the trough is stil there it just looks like the blob thinned out...is there any LLC
Quoting jeffs713:

Its warming up, but more slowly than the gulf or Caribbean.
SSTs:


26C Isotherm (depth of the 26C layer):


TCHP for the Atlantic Basin:

Still a lot of greens and blues on the isotherm and TCHP maps, esp. over the ATL itself. I'm hoping the longer it takes to heat up, the lower the range of high winds w/ storms later on. 'Course, that presupposes that storms recurve before hitting the WCar or GOM. .. ....
1026. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:


50kt shear no chance.


Yea. We are going to be looking at a late start season. I think we may have to wait till the late July or even early August.


ATLANTIC BASIN
AOI
10N/10W
AOI
11N/56W
Quoting Drakoen:


Yea. We are going to be looking at a late start season. I think we may have to wait till the late July or even early August.
Feels right.

I think those Eward moving troughs will have 2 cool it before we see anything serious.
Quoting Drakoen:


Yea. We are going to be looking at a late start season. I think we may have to wait till the late July or even early August.
maybe not till october
1030. Levi32


This is the set-up for our trough-split that is beginning now and will complete within 48 hours. The frontal trough and associated area of weak low pressure near the NE gulf coast are going to be sitting in the same area for a few days as the upper flow gets split and an upper feature starts backing to the SW. Situations like this always, always have to be watched for mischief no matter what, as the convergence caused by the surface trough combined with the upper feature can cause cyclogenesis. In 3-4 days energy from the tropical wave that will be moving into the NW Caribbean will get piled into the area as well.

There may be nothing on the models right now, but they rarely pick-up on home-brew developments until they're right on top of them. What they are showing is the moisture that will be lingering in the area over the next several days, and this area should be watched. Troughs in the Gulf of Mexico always mean trouble when they start sitting around, even if nothing substantial organizes.
1031. Levi32
Quoting hurricane23:


50kt shear no chance.


TUTT lifts out in 4-6 days. The upper-level environment will be marginal.
1033. Levi32
Quoting hurricane2009:


Hey if USA can beat Spain in soccer anything is possible lmao


LOL
1034. Ossqss
Is it not unusual to have a frontal system push this far south this time of year?

It almost looks like winter.

1035. JRRP
Quoting hurricane2009:


Hey if USA can beat Spain in soccer anything is possible lmao

lol
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

...BUT...EARLY IN THE CYCLE...A LOW IS TO FORM JUST NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH CLOSED CIRCULATION TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN THROUGH 48 HRS...AND MEANDER OVER THE CAMPECHE SOUND BY 72 HRS.
nrt:thanks a bunch we'll have to see if the wx is clear,if so I'll snap a picture or 2 w/my phone and post them on my blog!!!
1038. Levi32
Quoting Ossqss:
Is it not unusual to have a frontal system push this far south this time of year?

It almost looks like winter.



Well south of about 32N it ceases to be a true front, and is only a trough from then on. There is no big differences in temperature on either side of the front since the low-pressure system has been sitting there for so long and weakened considerably. The moisture in your image is basically bounding the upper trough, and it's not unusual to see them that far south at this time of year. That's why trough-splits are a problem in the early and late hurricane season.
1039. GOM
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
THE UNUSUALLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE AREA HAS WEAKENED SOME WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS NOW ALONG A LINE THROUGH 31N74W ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND WEST CUBA TO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
TROUGH EXTENDS ABOUT 500 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ELSEWHERE A
WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE IS PRESENT. TROUGH WILL DRIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN FURTHER. BY LATE FRIDAY A WEAK TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM
NEAR CAPE HATTERAS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO...AT THIS TIME THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND ABOUT 300 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS. ELSEWHERE A WEAK RIDGE IS PRESENT. THE TROUGH
WILL THEN STRENGTHEN SOME AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. BY LATE
SUNDAY A MODERATE STRENGTH TROUGH WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH BERMUDA TO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL
DRIFT A LITTLE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN WITH A VERY FLAT HEIGHT
FIELD OVER THE AREA.

SURFACE...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SAME
LOCATION. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 27N. AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ALONG ABOUT 26N. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE
TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NORMAL TRADES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT WELL DEFINED BY CONVECTION ANYMORE AND IS
CARRIED IN THE EAST CARIBBEAN NEAR 67W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY.
Quoting Ossqss:
Is it not unusual to have a frontal system push this far south this time of year?

It almost looks like winter.

Yep. Usually this time of year rainy weather systems impacting SFL/Keys/Antilles/Bahamas are more likely to be Twaves than fronts.
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Patrap - Trying to start a riot in here by showing a blob starting in the GOM? LOL


He got my attention. Who dat blob gonna be ?
Native New Orleans girl now living in Florida panhandle ... wondering where dat blob gonna go ?
Quoting Levi32:


Well south of about 32N it ceases to be a true front, and is only a trough from then on. ....... The moisture in your image is basically bounding the upper trough, and it's not unusual to see them that far south at this time of year. That's why trough-splits are a problem in the early and late hurricane season.
This kind of setup is not THAT usual in mid-June. More of a May feature.
ossgs:I got the edge of the wx as it was dying out as it moved south into sarasota...still one heck of a lightning storm!!!!,my friend lives near university and 75 and his power was out last night from 1-8am!!!!
1044. Levi32
Quoting emeraldcoast:


He got my attention. Who dat blob gonna be ?
Native New Orleans girl now living in Florida panhandle ... wondering where dat blob gonna go ?


Well first we need a blob lol. I'm only mentioning the possibility of troublesome stuff stirring up in the GOM over the next few days. However most features will be drifting slowly generally towards the SW away from the north gulf coast.
1045. Levi32
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yep. Usually this time of year rainy weather systems impacting SFL/Keys/Antilles/Bahamas are more likely to be Twaves than fronts.


True but it's not that unusual when you consider that the pattern is very amplified right now with a negative NAO and AO. Lots of north-south movement of the air instead of west-east.
1026. Drakoen 9:59 PM EDT on June 24, 2009
Quoting hurricane23:


50kt shear no chance.


Yea. We are going to be looking at a late start season. I think we may have to wait till the late July or even early August.


We need a storm heading for Florida ASAP to get help Drakeon's get rid of his depression.
1047. Ossqss
Quoting stillwaiting:
ossgs:I got the edge of the wx as it was dying out as it moved south into sarasota...still one heck of a lightning storm!!!!,my friend lives near university and 75 and his power was out last night from 1-8am!!!!


It was kickin here. I would bet we had 60-70mph winds min. It moved my portable, 400 lb B-ball hoop and tossed everything in the yard around. I am one exit north and power was out but not sure how long. I was watching the backs of my eyelids :)
IS THE WAVE COMING OFF AFRICA THE ONE THE GFS IS PICKING UP?
1049. Levi32
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
IS THE WAVE COMING OFF AFRICA THE ONE THE GFS IS PICKING UP?


No, the one the GFS develops is still over Africa at around 5W.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2

Hmmmm well maybe I should have put an even later date than July 9-12 in the contests for the first storm. 13% of the way through the hurricane season and all is well!
Quoting Levi32:


True but it's not that unusual when you consider that the pattern is very amplified right now with a negative NAO and AO. Lots of north-south movement of the air instead of west-east.
It has been a while since we've had both negative at the same time. Wonder if we will see more recurving as a result. Or if this is the year for the NJ / NY strike scenario.

Need time to review historical maps again.
1054. Ossqss
Quoting BahaHurican:
It has been a while since we've had both negative at the same time. Wonder if we will see more recurving as a result. Or if this is the year for the NJ / NY strike scenario.

Need time to review historical maps again.


When did we have them both negative prior? Does this relate to the transition to El Nino?

Just curious.
1055. JRRP
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
IS THE WAVE COMING OFF AFRICA THE ONE THE GFS IS PICKING UP?

nop when this activity reaches the atlantic may be that it weakens a bit
Quoting Levi32:


Well first we need a blob lol. I'm only mentioning the possibility of troublesome stuff stirring up in the GOM over the next few days. However most features will be drifting slowly generally towards the SW away from the north gulf coast.


Thank you, Levi32 !! My anxiety level is now back within normal range ... for hurricane season.
It will be too early for a month to watch waves from Africa--it can happen during an exceptional season but this one does not look exceptional.
Congrats LSU on winning the World Series!
1061. Patrap
LSU Defeats Texas in Omaha and are the National Champions of Collegiate Baseball 2009

11 to 4

Congratulations LSU Tigers




Well yeah it is only about 2% of total activity on average before this date. I'm not looking for the 1977 record being broken for the latest date of the first named system (since satellite observations began)
We are in desperate need of Blob.. any Blob.. even a small Blob....
Geaux tigers :)
Well good for LSU :-)...I take this as a good sign that the weather is behaving itself if this is taking the front line here.
1067. Ossqss
Interesting, stuck in the air due to an off shore Tstorm impact!

Parasailers safe after getting stuck in the air
Quoting Ossqss:


When did we have them both negative prior? Does this relate to the transition to El Nino?

Just curious.
Sorry. Thinking abt PDO / NAO rather than AO. NAO & AO should oscillate together, from what I recall.
Raining w/ Thunder/lightning here right now.
OssGSS I would not be liking that at all! The parasailing company really should be more responsible.
1071. GatorWX
SEC owns NCAA sports!!!!!!!!! WOOHOO, not that I'm a Tiger fan, but I'll always be routing for an SEC team especially over a big 10 or ACC team. Good job boys.

well look at this new tropical wave
Think I'll shut down for a while. Storm's moving overhead, and last time that happened a lightning strike took out my modem and my RJ45 / ethernet jack.

Later!
1074. Ossqss
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
OssGSS I would not be liking that at all! The parasailing company really should be more responsible.


Just watched the poor kids on the tube. 3 hr duration from an expected 15 minutes.

The storms blew up off shore and exhausted towards the beach. Who saw that coming?

Note to self-- cross off parasailing from the to-do list, Yikes -- L8R
Sounds like a bees nest at USA vs Spain Soccer match
Last Comment:



This is our current rain "blob".
I've parasailed, but I would not like 3 hours, and it would make me very sick--especially being stressed and not knowing what would happen and when it would end.
1078. Levi32
Another thing that I would watch closely is this mid-level circulation near Costa Rica that will be moving up through Nicaragua and Honduras tomorrow and Friday. From there it will probably get pulled NNW over the extreme western Caribbean and in the vicinity of the Yucatan in 3-4 days by the trough split in the Gulf of Mexico backing southwest into the Bay of Campeche. This is another area of energy that will be added to the mix at roughly the same time as the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. This whole area from the NW Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico needs to be watched.

Congrats to LSU...too bad for Texas.
Link
Interesting NHC 8:05 Discussion for those who haven't seen it.
1081. Levi32
Quoting hurricane2009:


LOL yea it does, oh and one more thing...

GOOOOOOOAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!!!!!


That was an awesome goal. I'm not used to seeing a soccer game with this many shot opportunities. The last one I saw was really boring but I'm loving this game so far.

And ugh my little brothers are going to watch looney tunes now so I can't see it lol.
Quoting Levi32:
Another thing that I would watch closely is this mid-level circulation near Costa Rica that will be moving up through Nicaragua and Honduras tomorrow and Friday. From there it will probably get pulled NNW over the extreme western Caribbean and in the vicinity of the Yucatan in 3-4 days by the trough split in the Gulf of Mexico backing southwest into the Bay of Campeche. This is another area of energy that will be added to the mix at roughly the same time as the tropical wave. This whole area needs to be watched.


not just that the 00z nam from ncep


1084. Levi32
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

not just that the 00z nam from ncep




Lol what do ya know....I've got support from the NAM. *cough*

0z GFS shows the mid-level circulation and associated moisture moving north of Honduras in 42 hours:

Good Evening Everyone - hope everyone isn't dying from the heat tonight...we've had balmy 95 degree afternoons here.
Looks like things are setting up for tropical storm genesis. Nothing we can do but observe.
1087. Levi32
0z GFS 54 hours shows a closed low forming north of the Honduras coast from the mid-level circulation I mentioned above. Also notice in the eastern Atlantic still developing that wave.

1089. Levi32
Quoting melwerle:
Good Evening Everyone - hope everyone isn't dying from the heat tonight...we've had balmy 95 degree afternoons here.


Evening Mel. Yeah I'm sweltering in 47 degrees right now. I don't think I can take anymore =D
1091. Levi32
Quoting hurricane2009:
well we got a few models hinting it Levi, but you know someone will come on and say...

Its the NAM, dont use it for tropical systems and the GFS has been terrible this year, I guarantee no storms til the end of next month.....

then we set it in stone and disappear for 3 weeks lol


Well I don't care lol. I didn't even notice the models did something with it until I spotted it on satellite and decided to take a look. Even if they weren't showing anything significant I still say keep a close eye on it. These things have a funny way of causing trouble when least expected.
1096. Levi32
Quoting hurricane2009:


I also think many fail to realize that even in the heart of the season, how many of these systems that form in the GOM and Caribbean are from a combination of things coming together at the right time.

This kind of development where we have the trough split, plus that mid-level low and maybe even that tropical wave moving into the islands, all combining together at the right time. It can happen, and happens more often than many think.


Yeah and I don't want to be all puffed up here or anything but I've been talking for 3 weeks now about moisture advecting northward into the western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche around this time between the 20th and 30th of June, and sure enough we had the BOC disturbance a couple days ago that came up across Mexico from the EPAC, and now this mid-level circulation coming into the Caribbean. Even if nothing develops you can see the pattern that has evolved where we can get disturbances in this area.
Quoting hurricane2009:


I also think many fail to realize that even in the heart of the season, how many of these systems that form in the GOM and Caribbean are from a combination of things coming together at the right time.

This kind of development where we have the trough split, plus that mid-level low and maybe even that tropical wave moving into the islands, all combining together at the right time. It can happen, and happens more often than many think.



Once you get towards the start of July one should expect to see a uptick in tropical formation regardless how busy or slow it was in June, even if a storm does not form it is highly unlikely there will be no areas of interest for July.
yes its a AOI worth the watch
1101. Levi32
0z GFS 96 hours....circulation moves NW into the NE Bay of Campeche under favorable upper-level winds.

AOI
mark
11n/10w
Shear's dropping. There's no strong El Nino blowing everything apart. And we've just had a blast of warm air. So guess what.
Something's going to develop.
A haiku:


a change I feel
the models show the path
black skies loom
1107. JRRP
this is the first time of the season that i see 3 TW
1108. Levi32
Big wave there....I'm not discounting the GFS on this one. This wave has the potential and the environment to work with.
1109. Patrap
Sea Level Rise Impacts on Florida and Miami

Music by Brian Fisher and Slow Motion Crash
Narrator: Susan Glickman
Director/Editor: Video Rahim
Executive Producer: Stephen Smith

1111. Levi32
Quoting hurricane2009:


Lvei looks to me that the GFS is developing the AOI that Keeper is showing too


Yup has been for 4 straight runs now or something like that.
Hello, Levi and Hurricane09.
What are you referring to?
The 00Z run is keeping our CV AOI as a closed low, the few runs before that kept swinging it between a closed and open wave.
Quoting Levi32:


Evening Mel. Yeah I'm sweltering in 47 degrees right now. I don't think I can take anymore =D


Oh Levi - I was going to say something that was going to get me banned. ;)

I'm so jealous but heading out and i hear it was in the sixties in the morning at my new home. Just worried about the drive there. No weather there....
Hurricane - time to turn off the a/c and sit with ceiling fans in that case. I'm all over it.
1117. Levi32
Quoting Chicklit:
Hello, Levi and Hurricane09.
What are you referring to?


This wave over western Africa that the GFS develops in the eastern Atlantic in a couple days:



And I'm also monitoring this mid-level circulation near Costa Rica that will be moving NNW over the next few days and could get into the Gulf of Mexico.

cloud top temps are -90c in that blob rolling off very high
Is Doc Masters still on vaca? That would be the sign!
Quoting melwerle:
Is Doc Masters still on vaca? That would be the sign!

Yep he comes back on the 29th!
1121. JRRP
1122. GBguy88
Quoting SavannahStorm:
A haiku:


a change I feel
the models show the path
black skies loom



A haiku follows a 5-7-5 syllable pattern, but you get credit for creativity :P
Quoting hurricane2009:


Look at posts 1093, 1095 and 1097 posted by Keeper.

thanks.
1125. Levi32
Quoting hurricane2009:
We had a debate last year, oh the GFS was showing it but it doesnt matter much blah blah blah, some who were in agreeing with the GFS brought up how the GFS nailed both Dean and Felix in 2007 2 weeks in advance.

It is only June yes, but still to me the GFS does a better job on tropical wave development in the Atlantic than it does figuring out how the home grown stuff develops


I agree.
1119...
Can't say I didn't warn ya'll....

35. ajcamsmom2 11:41 AM CDT on June 23, 2009
Oh NO!!! Dr. Masters is on vacation...Last year that meant all h--l was about to break out...Get your life preservers ready...lol
Felix was a beautiful storm.
Quoting GBguy88:



A haiku follows a 5-7-5 syllable pattern, but you get credit for creativity :P


Translate it back into Japanese and see how many syllables you get.

:p
1130. GBguy88
Dangerous tornado tracking through north-central Nebraska if anyone's interested.
1132. Levi32
Quoting Chicklit:
Felix was a beautiful storm.


Yeah he was:

Quoting hurricane2009:


Record setting storm too, here is the guess

Guess how many hours it took for Felix to go from being a classified tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane?

66 hours max 75
1135. Levi32
Quoting hurricane2009:


Record setting storm too, here is the guess

Guess how many hours it took for Felix to go from being a classified tropical depression to a Category 5 hurricane?


18 hours I think it was.
1136. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:


18 hours I think it was.
Quoting hurricane2009:


51


Lol nvm I'm thinking of Humberto records.
'nite all you nature lovers!
Sleep well, be grateful, tomorrow's another day.


AOI @180 hours brushing up against South America.
1141. Levi32
Quoting hurricane2009:
bah i got the numbers wrong lmao

ok let me look this up :p


You got it right. I was thinking of something else.
Quoting GBguy88:
Dangerous tornado tracking through north-central Nebraska if anyone's interested.



no there not lol
1144. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:



no there not lol


I missed that comment lol. It's a very nasty tornado.



Quoting Levi32:


I missed that comment lol. It's a very nasty tornado.






then oh my lol
Levi32 are you on here ??


i have some more update INFO on EL Nino




-El Nino events rarely develop this early in the summer, and it presently appears that conditions are already nearing the threshold of a basin-wide average anomaly of +0.5 C. Parts of the Eastern Pacific already have anomalies exceeding +1.5 C, and there is a great deal of even warmer subsurface water ready to rise to the surface at any time



more here



Link
1150. GBlet
hey everyone
1151. GatorWX
Quoting GBguy88:
Dangerous tornado tracking through north-central Nebraska if anyone's interested.


Only a severe thunderstorm warning in place and radar doesn't show a lot of rotation, pretty nasty nonetheless. Not saying it doesn't contain a tornado, but w/o a warning, it's hard to say just by looking at radar.
1152. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:
Levi32 are you on here ??


i have some more update INFO on EL Nino




-El Nino events rarely develop this early in the summer, and it presently appears that conditions are already nearing the threshold of a basin-wide average anomaly of +0.5 C. Parts of the Eastern Pacific already have anomalies exceeding +1.5 C, and there is a great deal of even warmer subsurface water ready to rise to the surface at any time



more here



Link


That's ridiculous, it's not rare lol.

Thanks for the link Taz.
1153. Levi32
Quoting GatorWX:


Only a severe thunderstorm warning in place and radar doesn't show a lot of rotation, pretty nasty nonetheless. Not saying it doesn't contain a tornado, but w/o a warning, it's hard to say just by looking at radar.


It's definitely rotating based on radial velocity. There is a strong possibility of either a tornado on the ground or the storm may produce one soon.

Quoting Levi32:


That's ridiculous, it's not rare lol.

Thanks for the link Taz.



your welcome
1155. GatorWX
now its a tornado warning, and nice hook shape too, sorry I underestimated that one.
1156. GatorWX
Quoting Levi32:


It's definitely rotating based on radial velocity. There is a strong possibility of either a tornado on the ground or the storm may produce one soon.



I'm not real good @ understanding doppler info. I know plenty about the tropics and atmospheric conditions, but not tornados. I just know to look for the hook.
1157. Levi32
Quoting GatorWX:


I'm not real good @ understanding doppler info. I know plenty about the tropics and atmospheric conditions, but not tornados. I just know to look for the hook.


I'm not that great of a doppler analyst myself. I just know how to recognize the common signatures. Severe thunderstorms aren't my specialty. Like you, I'm best with the tropics.
1158. GatorWX
I've learned a lot on here and elsewhere on the internet and have read a lot of books too. Where are you from Levi?
1159. Levi32
Homer, Alaska
1160. GatorWX
Andrew is what first caught my eye as a kid, and ever since then I've been really fascinated by weather. I strongly thought about a meteorological career, but two classes pertaining to it during my community college tenure was about it. Charley's eye passed 11.5 nm sse of me, and since then I've been on this blog. I used to have a different name, but I think I got booted off for saying something "bad" about a certain female weather channel anchor.
1162. GatorWX
That's right, I remember you speaking about Alaska and that you were from there the other day when everyone was whining about the heat in FL and posting their current conditions. I may be moving to AK after the summer. Not 100% sure yet, but it's a thought. Homer doesn't get exceptionally cold does it? Average lows/highs in winter 28/16 or thereabout?
1163. GatorWX
did Gloria hit the NE?
1164. Levi32
I'm not really sure where my passion for weather came from. I've had it since I was a little kid. I started tracking storms in 2002. I'm hoping to maybe major in Meteorology when I go to college.
1166. Levi32
Quoting GatorWX:
That's right, I remember you speaking about Alaska and that you were from there the other day when everyone was whining about the heat in FL and posting their current conditions. I may be moving to AK after the summer. Not 100% sure yet, but it's a thought. Homer doesn't get exceptionally cold does it? Average lows/highs in winter 28/16 or thereabout?


That's pretty close Gator. Days of 20 below zero used to be fairly common here but in the last decade sub-zero temps have been rare.
1168. Levi32
Night H2009
1169. GatorWX
Gloria (according to my parents) passed right over our house in upstate NY, newburgh area to be exact.
1170. GatorWX
Perhaps it was this storm that ignited my interest, being that I was 6 months old...lol They say babies learn less as they grow, perhaps this was one of my first great experiences.
1171. GatorWX
Levi, any UHAUL centers in Homer? and how far up the coast is it?
1172. Levi32
Lol Gator. I think it must have been the crazy snowstorms for me. We've had the equivalent of Cat 2 hurricanes here in my early childhood. The first satellite image of a hurricane I ever saw was on TV of Hurricane Lili in 2002, and then Claudette in 2003. After those storms I started paying more and more attention to hurricanes.
1173. Levi32
Quoting GatorWX:
Levi, any UHAUL centers in Homer? and how far up the coast is it?


Here's the Map of Homer's Location

Yes we have a UHAUL center on Ocean Drive near the carwash. At least I always see a bunch of them parked there lol.
1174. GatorWX
I'm going to try to transfer my job (I work for the mighty uhaul). Keep in mind we have the right equipment @ the lowest cost guaranteed. And actually that's one of the things I really like about the job, we can look up competition rates, beat them and give the customer a really low rate and really wow them. Feels good you know. Uhaul really does own the moving business. Penske and Budget are trying, but Uhaul will always beat them price wise with better equipment.
1175. GatorWX
Alright Levi, probably see you on here tomorrow, what is it 10:15 there? Too late here in sw FL~!~ Off to bed, gotta work @ 0900, ouch!!!
1176. Levi32
Alright Later Gator .....lol
1177. GatorWX
in a while crocodile.....yeah, lol
1178. GatorWX
I feel like such a douche saying that!, night man
For me it was partly watching Belle (1976) and really David (1979) --the western part of the eye went over us. I was 7 for Belle and 10 for David.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (T0904)
15:00 PM JST June 25 2009
===================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon In The South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Nangka (994 hPa) located at 15.9N 118.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Gale-Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in southern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 19.8N 115.8E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 23.4N 116.1E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 26.7N 119.3E - Tropical Depression
Morning everyone. Had quite the flood event here yesterday. Good thing it didn't rain anymore. In 2 hours time we ended up with this. This is a street not too far away from the house.



Are any of you interested in reporting daily rainfall to assist National Weather Service, the media, university studies, etc? CoCoRaHS is a volunteer organization currently 8000 strong that report rain/hail/snowfall on a daily basis to do just that. We are striving to have a volunteer for every square mile of the country, and have a long way to go. Those of you living in Florida understand how it can be sunny in your front yard and storming in the back yard. We could really use your assistance to help get a complete picture of this state's crazy weather, especially during tropical events. If you are interested, please email me at sandhockey@yahoo.com or visit the CoCoRaHS.org website. Thanks for your consideration.
Quoting IKE:
believable?


If this happens--could be a busted 4th of July somewhere on the Gulf Coast.
Quoting panamasteve:


If this happens--could be a busted 4th of July somewhere on the Gulf Coast.


and this point, I'll give up our 4th of July throw down for some rain, just for some cooler temps
morning
456 very good analysis this morning. total agrement with your take on the two possible threat areas today. the one that takes my interest is the Afican disturbance, since i reside in St Lucia. i remember in august of 2007 when the GFS was consistently hinted of the genesis of a disturbance coming off the african coast. this eventually evolved into hurricane Dean , which passed in channel between St Lucia and Martinique. the disturbance exiting the African coast looks almost the same strengh like the one that formed Dean. Looking at the factors that could caused cyclogenesis, it is only the SST in the far eastern atlantic that might be an inhibiting factor. the teperature is about 78deg F and gets better westward to about 50 deg W where the temperature is about 83 deg F, and increases all the way to the lesser antilles

i believe that the other models will come on board very soon and we will have something to monitor towards the weekend. the partial qs this morning is showing the possibility of a LLc which is part over water and on the coast. a further QS is neccessary to confirm this. if this so then the GFS could be right with the formation of a cyclone as soon as the tropical wave emerge over water. Time will tell
Good morning all :)
Quoting panamasteve:


If this happens--could be a busted 4th of July somewhere on the Gulf Coast.
We do need some rain,,,and a little relief from the heat..
1191. IKE
Looks like a cold-front will make it to the gulf coast by early next week....Birmingham,AL. discussion has it going south of that area, into southern AL. and NW FL.


AOI
MARK
11N/13W
1193. IKE
Impressive looking wave for the end of June.
Weather456
you make me a happy man I will watch that wave
I think it will be our first ts soon after passing 50 w
Is the gfs still wanting to develop that wave?
1196. WxLogic
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning;

Strongest Wave of the Season



Good morning!!!

If it keeps up its strength it could pretty well materialize into what the GFS has been hinting. If it does... then anything can be expected this early HUR season. Of course it will have to first survive the high shear in the Central ATL.
1197. IKE
Quoting ftpiercecane:
Is the gfs still wanting to develop that wave?


That one and apparently another behind it.
MEDIA ADVISORY: 33-09

NASA SETS COVERAGE FOR GOES-O LAUNCH ON JUNE 26

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- The Geostationary Operational Environmental
Satellite-O, or GOES-O, is scheduled for a liftoff on Friday, June
26, from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The one-hour
launch window extends from 6:14 to 7:14 p.m. EDT.

NASA will provide television, Internet and photo coverage of the
launch starting with a prelaunch news conference at 1 p.m., on
Thursday, June 25, at the NASA Kennedy Space Center Press Site.

GOES-O is the second of three in the current series of geostationary
weather and environmental satellites built for NASA by Boeing Space
and Intelligence Systems. It will be launched into orbit for NASA
aboard a Boeing Delta IV rocket.

Participating in the June 25 prelaunch news conference will be:



Gary Davis, director, Office of Systems Development
NOAA Satellite and Information Service


Kris Walsh, Commercial Programs manager
United Launch Alliance


Ken Heinly, director, Launch Products and Services
Boeing


Andre Dress, GOES-O deputy project manager
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center


Charlie Maloney, GOES-O program manager
Boeing Space and Intelligence Systems


Bart Hagemeyer, meteorologist in charge
NOAA National Weather Service Forecast Office, Melbourne, Fla.


Joel Tumbiolo, Delta IV launch weather officer
45th Weather Squadron, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station


NASA Television will carry the prelaunch news conference on the
"public channel." On launch day, June 26, NASA TV countdown coverage
will begin on the "media channel" at 4 p.m. and will conclude 30
minutes after liftoff. For NASA TV downlink information, schedules
and links to streaming video, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/ntv

Audio only of the prelaunch news conference and the launch coverage
will be carried on the NASA "V" circuits which may be accessed by
dialing 321-867-1220, - 1240, -1260 and -7135. On launch day,
"Mission Audio," the launch conductor's countdown activities without
NASA TV launch commentary, will be carried on 321-867-7135 starting
at noon. Launch will also be available on local amateur VHF radio
frequency 146.940 MHz heard within Brevard County.

Prelaunch and launch day coverage of GOES-O mission will be available
on the NASA Web site at:

http://www.nasa.gov

Live countdown coverage on NASA's launch blog begins at 4 p.m., on
June 26. Coverage features real-time updates of countdown milestones,
as well as streaming video and podcast of launch. To access these
features, go to NASA's GOES-O mission Web site at:

http://www.nasa.gov/goes-o

GOES-O will also provide expanded capability for the space and solar
environment-monitoring instruments. Forecasts and warnings for solar
disturbances will be enhanced. GOES-O data will protect investments
of billions of dollars by the government and private sector for
assets on the ground and in space.

GOES-O will feature a highly stable pointing platform, which will
improve the performance of its Imager and Sounder that are important
instruments for creating daily weather-prediction models and for
hurricane forecasting. Data from GOES-O will be valuable for the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Ocean
Service, which provides oceanographic circulation models and
forecasts for U.S. coastal communities.

As with all of NOAA's geostationary and polar-orbiting weather
satellites, GOES-O will be able to relay distress signals detected
from emergency locator beacons on the ground and at sea.

NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland is responsible for
designing and developing the spacecraft and its instruments for NOAA.

For further information about GOES-O's launch coverage, contact the
Kennedy Space Center News Center at 321-867-2468.
its weaken but still a large and expansive EW

latest mpe prcip eumstat sat image at 1130 utc
# Daniel Swain Says:
June 24th, 2009 at 11:19 pm

Looking at the newest CFS…moderate to strong El Nino probs look even better…
latest GFS surface anal 00z with 12 24 36 48 hr forecast








1203. IKE
Cold front makes it into the deep south early next week.

This from the Tallahassee discussion...

"AFTER SUN...SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCES GAIN GREATER INFLUENCE OVER OUR WX
THAT THE SEA BREEZE. AS THE SRN NEW ENGLAND TROUGH LIFTS NEWD...
ENERGY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SWING INTO THE ERN LAKES NEAR
SRN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS TROUGHING WILL HELP ANOTHER FRONT TO
SETTLE INTO THE DEEP S...ATYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR SURE...
BUT THEN WHAT HAS BEEN TYPICAL ABOUT 2009. THIS FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR NRN ZONES ON MON AND BE IN THE VICINITY ON TUE. THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (WITH PW WELL OVER 2
INCHES) WILL RESULT IN AT OR ABOVE CLIMO POPS. AS THE BOUNDARY
SETTLES S OF THE AREA ON WED AND THU...NRN AREAS WILL BEGIN TO DRY
OUT AND POPS WILL BE LOWERED ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON
MON WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER."
1204. IKE
New Orleans long-term discussion.....

"BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL COME INTO PLAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IS MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO STALL EITHER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
GULF COAST. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HAVE CHNC POPS FOR NOW AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS EVEN
HIGHER."
Quoting IKE:
believable?


No, the A/B high will be ridging in too much into the NW Caribbean.
Quoting Tazmanian:
# Daniel Swain Says:
June 24th, 2009 at 11:19 pm

Looking at the newest CFS%u2026moderate to strong El Nino probs look even better%u2026
it has happen to fast taz atomsphere will take a little longer to respond we go from neutral to weak from now till mid july then weak to mod from late july early aug by late august early sept to strong by mid sept with a nice mild and wet 09/10 winter by dec
1208. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


No, the A/B high will be ridging in too much into the NW Caribbean.


Latest GFS has a track across the Yucatan into the western GOM.
Quoting IKE:


Latest GFS has a track across the Yucatan into the western GOM.


Yes, the GFS has been really aggressive with the ridge lately. If one of the vigorous tropical waves off the African coast successfully coalesce into a tropical cyclone, it will likely not go out to sea. The long range GFS keeps the ridge strong, and even invigorates it at times.
West Coast African Wave + Projected Path / Development Cycle = I-yi-yi


:(
A lot of moisture associated with the emerging wave.



I just wonder if it'll do the old Cape Verde Poof once it is fully over water.
Good morning

Looks like the GFS likes that wave that is coming off the W coast of Africa

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Looks like the GFS likes that wave that is coming off the W coast of Africa

could be the first long tracker of the season if it holds together
Due to the cooler-than-average SSTs in the tropical Atlantic S of 20N and E of 45W, it seems unlikely for any t-waves to do much once they leave Africa, even if they exit at 10N latitude. Maybe things will be different in a couple of months, but right now, any solid t-waves which move off of Africa should fizzle out or become very weak.
Quoting TropicalBruce:
Due to the cooler-than-average SSTs in the tropical Atlantic S of 20N and E of 45W, it seems unlikely for any t-waves to do much once they leave Africa, even if they exit at 10N latitude. Maybe things will be different in a couple of months, but right now, any solid t-waves which move off of Africa should fizzle out or become very weak.
yeah but what its surpose to do and will do are two different things
I know the NAM is scoffed at for the tropics but it sure is insistent LOL

Still has a 1004 mb low in the NW Caribbean in the next 4 days or so.
Wow...that wave is somethin' else.

A real monster storm at sea.

Here are some things I'd like to know...

1) Is Dr. Jeff Masters still more than a week away from coming back to work? If so, does not bode well...

2) Is there a L associated with this wave? That's alot of convection area...

3) What conditions exist that would hinder this system's development?

4) What conditions exist that would help this system's development?

5) What's up with the SSTs, shear and steering current environments ahead of this thing? Are we now E -> W in the ITCZ?

6) It's probably just me first thing in the morning, but it looks like this thing has the gulf coast of Texas written all over it. If so...I hope it stays undeveloped the whole way in so it can be a drought buster!
Small waterspout reported over Intercoastal Waterway between Melbourne Florida & Satellite Beach. - Dissipated, Can't see it on Radar, boundary moving N up the coast so could be more.
Quoting DestinJeff:


re: #6.... you've got to be kidding.


No...it's probably just me 1st thing in the morning...
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Quoting DestinJeff:


re: #6.... you've got to be kidding.


I second that. Way too early to even speculate.
Is there an upper low forming in the eastern Gulf, seeing rotation going on ...
KOG, you guys were on the News last night... it would appear that Toronto is getting ummmmm ripe :)
just after 9 am its 81.1f with a heat index of 97 going to a high of 86 with heat indexs at or above 100
ya orca its hot hazy humid and the new word stinky
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ya orca its hot hazy humid and the new word stinky


Nothing like 100 degree weather and a garbage strike.. I hope it doesn't last more then a month or two :)


humidex 98f
the forecast track of this tropical wave, were it to evolve would put it at 14-15 deg lat before entering the caribbean. if it were to hold together ,it could be a force to be reckoned with, sst's are high from 50 deg west all the way to the GOMEX
Wishful thinking there Brian?
we got a good chance of severe weather later this afternoon with day time heat humity combine with a weak slow moving cool front and a dev lake breeze it may get quite nasty a little later today
Ok, I am looking at the Blob coming off of Africa... the shear around it is minimal, but all of the shear in front of it is 30-60 knots, with the shear tendency increasing in most cases. What am I missing.. should it not get ripped apart pretty good in the next few days?
tw coming off of africa? if it were august. didnt i write that last yr and had to have bird for dinner.
Hot and humid conditions will linger across southwestern Ontario for
one more day. The mercury will climb into the 31 to 34 degree range
by early afternoon, pushing humidex values to near or just over the
40 threshold.
Discussion of thunderstorm potential.

Today into this evening..There is a risk of severe thunderstorms
today in southern Ontario along and ahead of a slow-moving cold
front. Ample heat and humidity will almost ensure a few severe
thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon with damaging wind
gusts to 100 km/h, very large hail in excess of 3 centimetres,
torrential downpours giving over 50 mm of rain within an hour, and
frequent intense lightning. They may be particularly severe in areas
in and around the Golden Horseshoe. Isolated non-severe
Thunderstorms are expected in the northwest this morning spreading
into the northeast by this afternoon.

Quoting leftovers:
tw coming off of africa? if it were august. didnt i write that last yr and had to have bird for dinner.


Yup lol
All you guys are acting silly for talking about a tropical wave off Africa... does everyone know how many come off Africa each year? Ok so the GFS shows a weak low.. but this will fall apart once it gets to 30-35W... this happens every year @ this time of year. 1 time every decade something will form near 45-50W near 10dg..but usually they wait till it gets near 55-60W or until it gets into the western carribean.

Anyways you have to wait a few more weeks. Right now...some waves that are going to start to come off the coast will look nice with a low-midlevel circulation... but will die out!..and unless 3 models support development with the GFS..aka ECMWF-Ukmet... I would give it under a 10% chance of developing east of 50W.

Pay more attention to home grown stuff this time of year for the next 2 weeks @ least.
1239. Ossqss
Pulled down for the linked site is way too slow to support the image refresh :(
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Wishful thinking there Brian?


I'd love to see the gulf coast of Texas get soaked! :)
Quoting scottsvb:
All you guys are acting silly for talking about a tropical wave off Africa... does everyone know how many come off Africa each year? Ok so the GFS shows a weak low.. but this will fall apart once it gets to 30-35W... this happens every year @ this time of year. 1 time every decade something will form near 45-50W near 10dg..but usually they wait till it gets near 55-60W or until it gets into the western carribean.

Anyways you have to wait a few more weeks. Right now...some waves that are going to start to come off the coast will look nice with a low-midlevel circulation... but will die out!..and unless 3 models support development with the GFS..aka ECMWF-Ukmet... I would give it under a 10% chance of developing east of 50W.

Pay more attention to home grown stuff this time of year for the next 2 weeks @ least.


Hurricane Bertha...all I have to say
Cut off Low in Gulf beginning
1245. lavinia
KOG...my hubby has to fly out of Hamilton this evening. Do you know how long this storm is going to hang around today? Not that I wouldn't mind a break in this heat!
Bertha was that 1 time.. :)
Quoting CycloneOz:


No...it's probably just me 1st thing in the morning...


I hope so, unless it is a very weak TS that just dumps about 6-10 inches of rain spread out over a few days.
morning 09 and i watch what ever i like for as long as i like

i always follow this rule

what they say it will be and what it will be are two different things
1249. Ossqss
This is why the comment was made on the A wave.



The July tack guidance east of 60 is mostly for July 15-July 31st ...later in July you get...the further east you look.
1251. K8eCane
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
morning 09 and i watch what ever i like for as long as i like

i always follow this rule

what they say it will be and what it will be are two different things


Precisely: thats why i'm watching a little area off NC/SC coast
Hurricane Dennis began as a tropical depression on July 4th, 2005 in the eastern Caribbean.

July 4th is now just 10 days away...

Anything and everything is possible cause it's hurricane season.
Quoting lavinia:
KOG...my hubby has to fly out of Hamilton this evening. Do you know how long this storm is going to hang around today? Not that I wouldn't mind a break in this heat!
according to latest info looks like by 1 pm is when storms should ramp up and break out by 7 pm they should be out over the lake with maybe a few smaller cells following behind i figure the strongest will be between 2 pm and 5 then they should start movin se with the front
RitaEvac, you talking about the cluster of storms N of Key West? Looks like rotation from the Key West radar.
1255. beell
A big difference in the July waves of last year-including Bertha's wave. They all left the African coast at a fairly high latitude. At or above 15N. I thought this was unusual although other opinions may be just as valid. A different set-up over the ATL last year.
I saw that but no, I'm looking at west of Tampa
Quoting scottsvb:
Bertha was that 1 time.. :)


Bertha actually formed near 30W though lol
Quoting scottsvb:
Bertha was that 1 time.. :)

Fully agreed there. Just because it happens once does not mean that it will happen again every year. The entire atmospheric situation is different this year compared to last.

1. Shear is generally higher this year in that area.
2. This year is neutral to El Nino, last year is La Nina to neutral.
3. SSTs are somewhat cooler in that area this year, compared to last year

Also, there are several other factors to keep in mind:
1. Bertha was a freak of nature, it was well outside the "norm" for a July hurricane
2. The GFS spins up EVERYTHING with even a 0.0001% chance. IIRC, it was spinning up Cape Verde storms back in MAY.
3. It is wayyyy too early to be looking seriously at Cape Verde storms. Yes, its possible, but it is also possible for me to grow a horn out of my head and start speaking in tongues.

While I do think that it is good to watch all parts of the tropical Atlantic for storm formation, focusing on an area near the Cape Verde Islands so early in the season is pretty senseless self-pleasure at this point. Each season is different, and if people start wishcasting or hoping for a storm to form, they are just setting themselves up for disappointment.
1259. lavinia
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
according to latest info looks like by 1 pm is when storms should ramp up and break out by 7 pm they should be out over the lake with maybe a few smaller cells following behind i figure the strongest will be between 2 pm and 5 then they should start movin se with the front


Thank you for the info.
Quoting extreme236:


Hurricane Bertha...all I have to say


Both Bertha's actually. We're not being silly, the almost exact same scenerio is setting up. GFS forecasting weeks in advance a system off CV forming in July, everyone think's were crazy to watch it, then wallabam, Category 3/4 in Early July.
Quoting hurricane2009:


Actually it became a tropical depression at 22.7W


Yeah, I just couldn't remember the exact coordinates

INITIAL 03/0900Z 12.6N 22.7W

And if it happens once, who could say it couldn't happen again? Just simply because its happened before makes me more inclined to watch it, because now I know it can happen.
QS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST


Link
Quoting extreme236:


Yeah, I just couldn't remember the exact coordinates

INITIAL 03/0900Z 12.6N 22.7W

And if it happens once, who could say it couldn't happen again? Just simply because its happened before makes me more inclined to watch it, because now I know it can happen.


And the fact it just happened last year.
Quoting hurricane2009:


Not one person here has wishcasted anything about this tropical wave. Just because we talk about it doesnt mean we are freaking out about it

I guess to make others happy we should just not say a word about anything east of 60W until later July.



Jeff is 100% correct.... but of course you can watch it... why not? but to talk or speculate or have the "HYPE" of hoping it forms...forget about it... Cleveland will win a Championship before that happens..
Why are some bloggers so concerned what areas other bloggers watch? I find the insight on this blog of great value let em blog!
Quoting jeffs713:

Fully agreed there. Just because it happens once does not mean that it will happen again every year. The entire atmospheric situation is different this year compared to last.

1. Shear is generally higher this year in that area.
2. This year is neutral to El Nino, last year is La Nina to neutral.
3. SSTs are somewhat cooler in that area this year, compared to last year

Also, there are several other factors to keep in mind:
1. Bertha was a freak of nature, it was well outside the "norm" for a July hurricane
2. The GFS spins up EVERYTHING with even a 0.0001% chance. IIRC, it was spinning up Cape Verde storms back in MAY.
3. It is wayyyy too early to be looking seriously at Cape Verde storms. Yes, its possible, but it is also possible for me to grow a horn out of my head and start speaking in tongues.

While I do think that it is good to watch all parts of the tropical Atlantic for storm formation, focusing on an area near the Cape Verde Islands so early in the season is pretty senseless self-pleasure at this point. Each season is different, and if people start wishcasting or hoping for a storm to form, they are just setting themselves up for disappointment.


1) Completely correct
2) Completely Correct
3) Completely correct

1) When Bertha happened, it was the second time it (We had a Cat 5 in July in 2005 that was CV wave lol and Bertha in 1996) occured so it obviously wasn't a freak of nature.
2) Well, that obviously wasn't the case last year, GFS got most of the storms days-weeks in advance and the GFS picked up on Bertha too. Drak always told us the GFS is not the Gospel last year.
3) Not after last year it isn't anymore.

You got to remember, we've just endured 2 wierdo seasons plus 2005 2 years before 2007.
Wow, that wave that is about to come off Africa is pretty big. Will be interesting to see if it will die out or not when it hits water.
bertha didnt form near 30W.... it was around 45W.. I could be wrong though... find a stat..Im too lazy to find it...lol!
I'm becoming interested in the area off the nicaruga/honodurus coast near 13.5N,82.5W
Quoting scottsvb:



Jeff is 100% correct.... but of course you can watch it... why not? but to talk or speculate or have the "HYPE" of hoping it forms...forget about it... Cleveland will win a Championship before that happens..


You probably wouldve said Bertha wouldn't have formed either. But again, no one is saying this WILL form...were just watching it cause its happened before, okay?
Quoting scottsvb:
bertha didnt form near 30W.... it was around 45W.. I could be wrong though... find a stat..Im too lazy to find it...lol!


Again lol

INITIAL 03/1500Z 13.3N 24.7W 35 KT
Quoting stoormfury:
QS OFF THE AFRICAN COAST


Link


Wowza...
Quoting scottsvb:



Jeff is 100% correct.... but of course you can watch it... why not? but to talk or speculate or have the "HYPE" of hoping it forms...forget about it... Cleveland will win a Championship before that happens..


Just curious Scott do you even give it a potential to develop? I have not seen any hype on here so far not even a wishcasting landfall forecast so I'm not sure why it seems to bother you so much?
Quoting scottsvb:
bertha didnt form near 30W.... it was around 45W.. I could be wrong though... find a stat..Im too lazy to find it...lol!


Link
Climatolgy or no climatolgy. anything can happen when dealing with tropical meteorology. we have had numerous examples. Bertha of 2008 broke all the rules of climatology. nothing is cast in stone
1279. beell
And just for the record, fwiw, put me in the "I'm gonna watch it anyway" camp.
Quoting stoormfury:
Climatolgy or no climatolgy. anything can happen when dealing with tropical meteorology. we have had numerous examples. Bertha of 2008 broke all the rules of climatology. nothing is cast in stone


What is cast in stone is that there will be a hurricane this year
Quoting sporteguy03:
Why are some bloggers so concerned what areas other bloggers watch? I find the insight on this blog of great value let em blog!



cause there are noobs that browse these forums.. you get some people that post and hype up something...then that noob that was reading this goes to work and tells everyone theres a hurricane forming... and I hear that all the time.

OR

Same thing,,, people hypecast and the noobys (people who just found this site) post or just read this get overly excited or scared thinking its coming to their house. Alot of noobys that browse these forums think that most know what they're talking about.. but really 98% or more in here dont. There are a couple good forecasters/or peeps with degrees in here..but more METs dont use these forums cause for 1.... we get brushed aside by the massive amount of spam (hypecasters/wishcasters) and they never fully learn. INFACT... I have stated many times about certain things not to worry about and people just dont read or the kids-novice keep scaring up dream situations on what fantasy might happen.

Again there are a few good peeps in here and some that are learning and dont overhype or care to discuss something (cause they know).. but the whole problem is people who browse these sites dont know who really knows what their talking about.
1281. No one is trying to scare anyone...wow what fantasy world are you in lol

SAL showing up pretty darn good on the atlantic visable loop
Good morning.
It is 10:oo am, and the heat index is up to 96. It feels that way too.
Armpits are droolin'.
hurricane 2009,you eat alot of breakfasts!!,lol;)
Atleast there are some who are thinking positive no doubting that there will be a hurricane. that is not climatology.it is a truism
Thats a little ridiculous. Bloggers cant be told what to post based on how someone else might take it and run with it. Everyone has to be responsible for their own actions. If someone reads a post by one of the bloggers here instead of listening to the NHC or their own meteorologist then they have to take the responsiblity for that, no one else. Nothing wrong with blob watchin, IMO.
Quoting extreme236:
1281. No one is trying to scare anyone...wow what fantasy world are you in lol



LOL extreme!
Quoting extreme236:
1281. No one is trying to scare anyone...wow what fantasy world are you in lol

Quoting extreme236:
1281. No one is trying to scare anyone...wow what fantasy world are you in lol

Quoting extreme236:
1281. No one is trying to scare anyone...wow what fantasy world are you in lol




lol you sure? Its going to get that way soon enough until it goes Poof... then everyone downplays their hype!
1295. beell
Couple of other things.
If you are are not making an attempt to follow each and every wave from Africa clear through to the EPAC, then you are not "watching" the tropics. W456 comes to mind...

There is almost as much to be learned by why something did NOT form.
Quoting scottsvb:


LOL extreme!


lol you sure? Its going to get that way soon enough until it goes Poof... then everyone downplays their hype!


Your just a troll who wants to cause problems...we are all interested simply because Bertha formed at 25W last year, so it's happened before. No one is hyping anything/
1297. Ossqss
Quoting scottsvb:



Cleveland will win a Championship before that happens..


LoL, the Browns did win when they moved to Baltimore :)
Quoting hurricane2009:


Not one person here has wishcasted anything about this tropical wave. Just because we talk about it doesnt mean we are freaking out about it

I guess to make others happy we should just not say a word about anything east of 60W until later July.

I think I define "wishcasting" differently. I define it as sticking to something developing when it is highly unlikely to develop, based on current conditions.
I guess this an example of hype then lol.


INITIAL 04/0900Z 22.7N 55.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 57.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 24.0N 60.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 24.0N 62.6W 110 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 23.4N 64.9W 110 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 73.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 76.5W 115 KT


Better to be prepared than to wait and do nothing until right before the storm hits.
No one is saying they think 100% this will develop, I give it a 30-40% actually, because of the conditions and that we've seen so many waves go poof as soon as they hit the water.
1281.
Scott doesn't that happen though everyday with the news and local weather I went to work and people talked about the lightning storm that occurred at 5am in the morning, that was not in a blog, I have not heard anyone say a hurricane will hit because Dr.M's blog said so.I suppose someone could say that, but a savvy person would check their weather station for that.

Your right there some great bloggers on here (456, StormW) are both watching these areas so it must have some chance.
Quoting jeffs713:

I think I define "wishcasting" differently. I define it as sticking to something developing when it is highly unlikely to develop, based on current conditions.


Which by that definition, you cannot say it's wishcasting
cool picture from cape cod..

In Chatham, an austere utopia yields to a relentless tide


Link
Wow! A wave comes off the coast of Africa and tensions sky rocket...

Will it go poof? I have no idea.
Will it develop? I have no idea.

That's what makes watching the tropics fun.
scott is definately not a troll,extreme,as a matter of fact I believe he's a met!!!,some people on the board do "hypecast",but I haven't seen that on here so far this season,STORMTOP does come to my mind though,lol:)
1311. Ossqss
This seems appropriate. Maybe
Quoting RMM34667:
cool picture from cape cod..

In Chatham, an austere utopia yields to a relentless tide


Link




WOW!!!!
1313. Tazbeat
Quoting scottsvb:



Alot of noobys that browse these forums think that most know what they're talking about.. but really 98% or more in here dont. There are a couple good forecasters/or peeps with degrees in here..but more METs dont use these forums cause for 1.... we get brushed aside by the massive amount of spam (hypecasters/wishcasters) and they never fully learn. INFACT... I have stated many times about certain things not to worry about and people just dont read or the kids-novice keep scaring up dream situations on what fantasy might happen.

Again there are a few good peeps in here and some that are learning and dont overhype or care to discuss something (cause they know).. but the whole problem is people who browse these sites dont know who really knows what their talking about.



First of all, I would suggest that there may be a bit more than 2% of the people posting in here who actually know what they're talking about.

But if you want to talk hype, let's talk the mainstream sources of information. One of my big problems has always been with bogus storm surge maps showing who will be underwater during which category of storm. When in reality, the storm surge wouldn't get anywhere close to those projections. Another thing is building up storms to be bigger and worse then they truly are, to try to convince people to leave a particular area. And yes, I know the consequences of not doing this, I live in SW FL and am well aware of what Charley did at the last minute. But if people are told a storm will be bad, and they need to evacuate, and they do, then the storm isn't bad, what are the chances of that person evacuating the next time a storm comes through? The mainstream outlets need to not hype the storms - just tell the truth. Why do you think I come here and not to the weather channel for info?
something might be trying to get going north coast of nicaraqua honduras line.
Quoting stillwaiting:
scott is definately not a troll,extreme,as a matter of fact I believe he's a met!!!,some people on the board do "hypecast",but I haven't seen that on here so far this season,STORMTOP does come to my mind though,lol:)


lol yeah I'm sure...a met wouldn't come onto a forum and cause trouble
Quoting Ossqss:
This seems appropriate. Maybe


Nice one! Lol.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Nothing like 100 weather and a garbage strike.. I hope it doesn't last more then a month or two :)
Talk about putting up a stink - Yikes! When the strike is over - wont't the workers be stuck cleaning up all that mess. They must be striking for a considerable change in the current status, to be willing to face that hell.

KOTG, when do you expect a reprieve from the heat?
Certainly Impressive...
Wouldn't it be ironic if the NAM, which everyone says should be ignored for the tropics, is really on to something ??

A tropical wave off Africa does not have to develop into a full storm tracking across the Atlantic, some times all you need is the leftover energy from a wave that dissolved to cause trouble once it does get into the areas that are conducive for development.

But really, guys, no one is right or wrong, and everyone can have an opinion. So play nice.
Hi Kman:

would just fit the pattern of no real pattern at all!
the front is beginning to bend alittle to the north of the mid level low wonder what nature is up to?
The flip side of the evacuation argument is that it only takes just one.

We use to have to prepare a lot more for storms before they were able to track as well as they can now. Our theory then, and still is today, is better to be wrong 9 times, and right once. We put our seat belts on every time we get in the car in case we have an accident - how often does it actually happen?

Quoting RMM34667:
cool picture from cape cod..

In Chatham, an austere utopia yields to a relentless tide


Link


That pic is just way too cool! I love those shots at wave level! :)
Were we not talking about reduced dust in the MDR last week...looks like it recovered to me.


(click for full size)
1329. Tazbeat
Quoting zoomiami:
The flip side of the evacuation argument is that it only takes just one.

We use to have to prepare a lot more for storms before they were able to track as well as they can now. Our theory then, and still is today, is better to be wrong 9 times, and right once. We put our seat belts on every time we get in the car in case we have an accident - how often does it actually happen?



Believe me, I fully understand the purpose behind the principle. But the difference is, when you put your seatbelt on, that's your choice. What if someone else told you you HAD to put your seatbelt on because if you didn't, you could die in a crash that COULD happen to you on this trip? And it didn't happen. How often would you listen to that person before you stopped listening - just in time for the REAL accident?
Quoting beell:
Couple of other things.
If you are are not making an attempt to follow each and every wave from Africa clear through to the EPAC, then you are not "watching" the tropics. W456 comes to mind...

There is almost as much to be learned by why something did NOT form.

I completely agree there. I watch every wave, but I do my best to avoid hyping up anything to possibly form, unless it is very close to the US coast, and may be a "homegrown" system.

All that said... my apologies if I offended anyone by accusing them of wishcasting or anything like that. Its still morning here.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I guess this an example of hype then lol.


INITIAL 04/0900Z 22.7N 55.8W 125 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 57.7W 125 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 24.0N 60.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 24.0N 62.6W 110 KT
48HR VT 06/0600Z 23.4N 64.9W 110 KT
72HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 69.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 73.5W 115 KT
120HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 76.5W 115 KT


Better to be prepared than to wait and do nothing until right before the storm hits.
No one is saying they think 100% this will develop, I give it a 30-40% actually, because of the conditions and that we've seen so many waves go poof as soon as they hit the water.


Geez, that's not funny! That had it right over my house. Glad that didn't actually materialize.
Sure...it's a longshot, but if that wave or energy-ladened remnants of it survive long enough for a move into the eastern Caribbean...

...then all bets are off.

100% of us will not only be watching, but deeply caring what this system does.

Yay rain. We if we can get a little more, just without the tree-felling gusts this time, please.

1323 and 1324

Let's see if this vorticity works its way over to the Nicaragua coast from the South Central Caribbean

Quoting Tazbeat:


What if someone else told you you HAD to put your seatbelt on because if you didn't, you could die in a crash that COULD happen to you on this trip?


I am told I have to wear a seat belt from someone I've never even met. And if I don't and get caught I get ticketed.

How in the world did the five of us kids survive Dad's crazy driving in the back of that station wagon?

I resent being told to wear a seat belt.

Next thing...they'll tell me I can't eat fast food anymore, either.

Life in America...it ain't what it used to be, folks. You've lost a ton of liberties...and you will continue to lose them.
1338. NRAamy
My Local Weather:
John Wayne-Orange County, California
64 °F
Haze
Eastern GOM

South central Caribbean

Quoting RitaEvac:


What is cast in stone is that there will be a hurricane this year
Even this isn't cast in stone. It's possible to have a season without a 'cane.
Evening all..... what's the latest?
Quoting DestinJeff:


i think much of the reason everyone says to ignore it is simply because everyone says to ignore it.... know what i mean?


I do indeed. We won't have long to wait to see how it plays out. The NAM has been developing a 1004 mb low in the NW Caribbean late this weekend for several runs now.
Quoting hurricane2009:


That is for the season as a whole, there will be episodes of heavy dust yes, but just not as numerous


Not talking about that. Someone pointed out this plot with a lot less dust/dry air on it last week, as well.

One day's plot is not a season.
Quoting beell:
Couple of other things.
If you are are not making an attempt to follow each and every wave from Africa clear through to the EPAC, then you are not "watching" the tropics. W456 comes to mind...

There is almost as much to be learned by why something did NOT form.
Well said. Point of blogging on this topic is to see what can be learned by WATCHING, not by existing on past experience. I'm the 1st to go look at old charts & stuff, but they're not the REASON I blog. It's looking at every "blob" and trying to understand the processes that influence its [non]formation.

Quoting kmanislander:
Eastern GOM

South central Caribbean


Shear is only 5-10 kts there too..
1350. beell
Quoting jeffs713:

I completely agree there. I watch every wave, but I do my best to avoid hyping up anything to possibly form, unless it is very close to the US coast, and may be a "homegrown" system.

All that said... my apologies if I offended anyone by accusing them of wishcasting or anything like that. Its still morning here.


Certainly no offense here, jeffs. And if anyone needs some help keeping up with the waves-and they do get a little indistinct at times, these folks have been including a small section in their Monday through Friday discussion dedicated to analyzed tropical waves and forecasted movement out to 84 hrs.

Looks like this for yesterday: (if anybody knows how to paste text and keep the format-please advise lol).

EASTERLY/TROPICAL WAVES (INITIALIZED AT 12Z TODAY)

INITIAL F24 F36 F48 F60 F72 F84

50W (S/13N) 53W 57W 60W 63W 65W 69W
67W (SURGE) 71W 74W 76W 79W 81W 82W
78W (S/18N) 81W 83W 85W 88W 90W 92W
Caribbean Discussion-International Desk
1353. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


... cue the "going to pull a Dolly" posts

btw... Ana Montana, Ike? Really? have you no shame?


LOL.
Quoting DestinJeff:


little bit closer to home than the "pre-CV system" (somebody will call it that)... i'll keep my eyes on the carrib for now, despite the universal disdain for the NAM


The 12Z NAM has a 1004 mb low near the Yucatan on Saturday. For that to materialise things would have to get going quickly near Nicaragua.
Quoting kmanislander:


I do indeed. We won't have long to wait to see how it plays out. The NAM has been developing a 1004 mb low in the NW Caribbean late this weekend for several runs now.


Hey Kman! Agreed...something else to keep an eye on...especially with ALL models showing low shear in that area.
1356. Ossqss
TCHP is very ripe in that area Kman. The site is too slow to post it, at least from this PC.
Quoting hurricane2009:


Its only happened twice 1907 and 1914
Well, it's getting to be that time of century again. . . lol
-----------------
Hey, Aussie. How cool has it gotten?
Quoting DestinJeff:


... cue the "going to pull a Dolly" posts

btw... Ana Montana, Ike? Really? have you no shame?


Is there way I can click "like this comment" more than once? LOL
Quoting DestinJeff:


little bit closer to home than the "pre-CV system" (somebody will call it that)... i'll keep my eyes on the carrib for now, despite the universal disdain for the NAM
Even if not a truly tropical entity, it could be a rainmaker for the area.
Later, all. Gotta head 2 wk.. . .:o(
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, it's getting to be that time of century again. . . lol
-----------------
Hey, Aussie. How cool has it gotten?

well it was 5C here this morning and it got to a balmy 15C today. but at least the sun was out. Currently its a whole 9C and its ment to get down to 5C again tonight. Glad i got my electric blanket.
1364. Ossqss
Quoting weathersp:


Can you grab the 26 depth, I cannot get connected, big brother stepped on it.
Quoting Ossqss:


Can you grab the 26 depth, I cannot get connected, big brother stepped on it.

broad area of low pressure in the GOMEX. within this area are a number of mid level votices spinning around. convection has been on the increase as the system appers to be drifting to the southwest. shear is only marginal, but is expected to be very favouable the next 72 hrs. there are no evidence to suggest that the the mid levl vortices are working down to the surface. before that happens the convection has to coalesce to one area of heavy convection. this area should be quite interesting the next few days
1367. IKE
12Z GFS at 36 hours....

Area of Interest 1: MLC with gaining convection in Caribbean.

Area of Interest 2: Strong Cape Verde wave.
Quoting Patrap:
GOM 84 Hour Wind Forecast Model


Good Link..Thanks Pat! saving that one..
Back later
GFS is definitely persistent with the African Wave. Has a tropical system develop by 48 hours... 12UTC Saturday morning. Let's see how this actually plays out!


10AM CDT already 94 in Houston
Off topic majorly..

have any of you all tried Chips that thave been in the freezer for an hour on a hot day?

You all should try..
1376. Ossqss
New Blog !
and the tunder rolls