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U.S. heavy precipitation events are increasing, but drought is not

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:12 PM GMT on January 25, 2011

Yesterday, I introduced the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Extremes Index, which uses temperature and precipitation records to see if the U.S. climate is getting more extreme. Today, I'll focus on how the drought and precipitation extremes that go into the Climate Extremes Index have changed over the past century. The three precipitation-related factors to go into the Climate Extremes Index are:

1) The sum of: (a) the monthly percentage of the United States in severe drought (equivalent to the lowest tenth percentile) based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and (b) the percentage of the United States with severe moisture surplus (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI.

2) Twice the value of the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events.

3) The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and (b) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days without precipitation.

Items 1 and 3 have shown no change in annual average value over the past century, but there has been a marked increase in the number of heavy 1-day precipitation events in recent decades. Thus, the record and near-record values of the Climate Extremes Index in recent years have been due to a combination of the increase in heavy 1-day precipitation events and an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures.


Figure 1. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for heavy 1-day precipitation events shows that these events, on average, have affected 10% of the U.S. over the past century (black line). However, heavy precipitation events have increased in recent decades. The seven most extreme years since 1910 have all occurred since 1995, with 2010 ranking as the 5th most extreme year in the past 100 years. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Heavy precipitation events
Global warming theory predicts that global precipitation will increase, and that heavy precipitation events--the ones most likely to cause flash flooding--will also increase. This occurs because as the climate warms, evaporation of moisture from the oceans increases, resulting in more water vapor in the air. According to the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. The Climate Extremes Index plot for extreme 1-day precipitation events (Figure 1) does indeed show a sharp increase in heavy precipitation events in recent decades, with seven of the top ten years for these events occurring since 1995, and 2010 coming in 5th place in the past 100 years. The increases in heavy precipitation events have primarily come in the spring and summer, when the most damaging floods typically occur. This mirrors the results of Groisman et al. (2004), who found an increase in annual average U.S. precipitation of 7% over the past century, which has led to a 14% increase in heavy (top 5%) and 20% increase in very heavy (top 1%) precipitation events. Kunkel et al. (2003) also found an increase in heavy precipitation events over the U.S. in recent decades, but noted that heavy precipitation events were nearly as frequent at the end of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, though the data is not as reliable back then.

Drought and extreme wetness
Global warming theory predicts that although global precipitation should increase in a warmer climate, droughts will also increase in intensity, areal coverage, and frequency (Dai et al., 2004). This occurs because when the normal variability of weather patterns brings a period of dry weather to a region, the increased temperatures due to global warming will intensify drought conditions by causing more evaporation and drying up of vegetation. Increases in drought and flooding are my top two concerns regarding climate change for both the U.S. and the world in the coming century. Two of the three costliest U.S. weather disasters since 1980 have been droughts--the droughts of 1988 and 1980, which cost $71 billion and $55 billion, respectively. The heat waves associated with these droughts claimed over 17,000 lives, according to the National Climatic Data Center publication, Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters. Furthermore, the drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl, which left over 500,000 people homeless and devastated large areas of the Midwest, is regarded to be the third costliest U.S. weather disaster on record, behind Katrina and the 1988 drought. (Ricky Rood has an excellent book on the Dust Bowl that he recommends in a 2008 blog post).


Figure 2. The Annual Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for drought. The worst U.S. droughts on record occurred in the 1930s and 1950s. There has been no trend in the amount of the U.S. covered by drought conditions (blue bars) or by abnormally moist conditions (red bars) over the past century. About 10% of the U.S. is typically covered by abnormally dry or wet conditions (black lines). Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

The good news is that the intensity and areal coverage of U.S. droughts has not increased in recent decades (blue bars in Figure 2). The portion of the U.S. experiencing abnormal drought and exceptionally wet conditions has remained nearly constant at 10% over the past century. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S. like this: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."

Other portions of the globe have not not been so fortunate. Globally, Dai and Trenberth (2004) showed that areas experiencing the three highest categories of drought--severe, extreme, and exceptional--more than doubled (from ~12 to 30%) since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an El Niño-related precipitation decrease over land, and subsequent increases primarily due to warming temperatures. According to the Global Drought Monitor, 98 million people world-wide currently live in areas experiencing the highest level of drought (exceptional).

References
Andreadis, K. M. Lettenmaier, D. P., "Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States", Geo. Res. Letters 33, 10, L10403, DOI 10.1029/2006GL025711

Dai A., K.E. Trenberth, and T. Qian, 2004: A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 18702002: Relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming", J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 11171130.

Gleason, K.L., J.H. Lawrimore, D.H. Levinson, T.R. Karl, and D.J. Karoly, 2008: "A Revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index", J. Climate, 21, 2124-2137.

Groisman, P.Y., R.W. Knight, T.R. Karl, D.R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J.H. Lawrimore, 2004, "Contemporary Changes of the Hydrological Cycle over the Contiguous United States: Trends Derived from In Situ Observations," J. Hydrometeor., 5, 64-85.

Kunkel, K. E., D. R. Easterling, K. Redmond, and K. Hubbard, 2003, "Temporal variations of extreme precipitation events in the United States: 1895-2000", Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1900, doi:10.1029/2003GL018052.

A new Nor'easter for New England
A low pressure system currently centered along the Gulf Coast near New Orleans is bringing heavy rain to much of the south. Rains in excess of 3 inches have fallen over central Mississippi, and the rain is expected to change to snow over northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, and much of Tennessee late tonight. A swath of 2 - 4" of snow is expected in these regions, with higher amounts in the mountains. The low will move off the coast of North Carolina on Wednesday morning, then northeastward out to sea, potentially bringing heavy snows of 4 - 8" to inland portions of New England and the mid-Atlantic. At this time, it appears that the storm will track far enough from the coast and there will be insufficient cold air in place for snowfall amounts of a foot or more to fall. A nasty mix of rain, sleet, and snow is likely for much of the coast, with the heaviest snows expected to miss New York City, Washington D.C., and Boston (Figure 3.) As the low drags its cold front over Florida this afternoon, a slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists, and Florida could see a few tornadoes.


Figure 3. Probability of more than 8 inches of snow falling, for the 24 hour period ending 7am EST Thursday January 27, 2011. Image credit: National Weather Service HPC.


Jeff Masters

Climate Change Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I usually see some weaking in this type of line when it gets into southern Florida, but this one is holding it's own (if not strenthening)...Quite impressive for this time of year.
066
WFUS52 KTBW 260018
TORTBW
FLC015-027-055-071-260045-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0013.110126T0018Z-110126T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
718 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHERN LEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 745 PM EST

* AT 714 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR CLEVELAND...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA GORDA...
AND ANOTHER TORNADO DEVELOPING 2 MILES SOUTH OF BOCA
GRANDE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CLEVELAND.
BABCOCK RANCH.
TUCKERS CORNER.
FORT MYERS SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE TORNADO GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IN
A STRONG AND WELL CONSTRUCTED BUILDING. CARS AND MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT
SAFE. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH OR CULVERT AND
COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASE CALL
813-645-2323.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA.



LAT...LON 2665 8225 2674 8228 2676 8227 2679 8222
2670 8224 2672 8216 2666 8208 2680 8208
2678 8217 2681 8220 2687 8216 2681 8214
2681 8206 2692 8211 2706 8201 2706 8144
2702 8145 2702 8156 2663 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 294DEG 31KT 2688 8194




CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page


945

NWUS22 KWNS 260006

STAHRY



SPC TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS

UNOFFICIAL - FOR OFFICIAL REPORTS, SEE PUBLICATION 'STORM DATA'

FOR 06CST TUE JAN 25 2011 THRU 18CST MON JAN 24 2011



EVENT LOCATION REMARKS (CST)TIME



.....TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS.....



1 *TORN 4 WNW MYAKKA HEAD FL (25 ENE SRQ) 25/1715

PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR HIGHWAYTBW/LSR 2750 8214

64 AND WINGATE ROAD. N





.......LRG HAIL/STRONG WIND RPTS.............LRG HAIL/STRONG WIND RPTS......



3 WNDG SPRING HILL FL (35 NNE PIE) 25/1545

DAMAGE REPORTED TO TWO WINDOWS AND GARAGE DOOR.TBW/LSR 2844 8256

EXACT LOCATION NOT KNO

6 G 65 2 N SAINT PETERSBURG FL (8 S PIE) 25/1610

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 75 MPH. BRANCHES TBW/LSR 2779 8267

BREAKING OFF TREES.

7 G 52 4 SSE TAMPA FL (13 E PIE) 25/1624

60 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED. TBW/LSR 2791 8245

4 WNDG 2 NNW SAINT PETERSBURG FL (9 S PIE) 25/1635

OF 38TH AVE N AND 24TH

8 G 55 SANFORD FL (16 N ORL) 25/1714

SANFORD/ORLANDO AIRPORT ASOS PEAK WIND MLB/LSR 2879 8128

27055/2314

9 G 52 PORT ORANGE FL (3 SSE DAB) 25/1731

MLB/LSR 2912 8103





.........OTHER SEVERE REPORTS..................OTHER SEVERE REPORTS.........



2 A100 6 W BROOKSVILLE FL (44 NNE PIE) 25/1540

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED TBW/LSR 2855 8249

5 G 50 2 NNE MASARYKTOWN FL (40 NNE PIE) 25/1544

50 KNOT WIND GUST REPORTED AT BROOKSVILLE TBW/LSR 2847 8245

HERNANDO COUNTY AIRPOR
The Storm Prediction Center needs to expand the Tornado Watch to include South Florida. Satellite imagery shows a new, more intense squall line forming from the Yucatan into the Southern Gulf of Mexico moving towards South Florida with defined supercells within the line.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
The Storm Prediction Center needs to expand the Tornado Watch to include South Florida. Satellite imagery shows a new, more intense squall line forming from the Yucatan into the Southern Gulf of Mexico moving towards South Florida with defined supercells within the line.

They will cchs.They will

Mesoscale Discussion 45

< Previous MD
MD 45 graphic


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

VALID 260020Z - 260115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.

QLCS/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS CNTRL/SW
FL...WELL-AHEAD OF MESOSCALE MODEL TIMING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE HOW FAR S THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE.


HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
FROM AREAS NW-N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE VERO BEACH-MELBOURNE
REGION THROUGH 01Z. HERE...CORE OF SSWLY LLJ OF 40-50 KTS
EXISTS...YIELDING STRONGLY VEERING 0-1KM PROFILES WITH SRH OF
350-400 M2/S2 BASED OFF THE MLB VWP.

STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ WILL BEGIN SHIFTING NE AWAY FROM FL BY
LATE EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM WAVE ACCELERATES ENE. AIR MASS ACROSS
S FL WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE...AND WITH AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE S
OF THE CURRENT WATCH THIS EVENING. WIND PROFILES BECOME
INCREASINGLY VEERED WITH TIME WITH AT LEAST 35-40 KTS OF H85-H7
FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY AT LEAST POSE AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS S FL.

..RACY.. 01/26/2011


ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...


yes line dev out over gulf heading east towards se fla
We're in the tornado warning until 7:45pm! Batten down the hatches!
276
WFUS52 KMLB 260022
TORMLB
FLC009-061-097-260115-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0008.110126T0022Z-110126T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
722 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PORT CANAVERAL...MERRITT ISLAND...
CAPE CANAVERAL...SATELLITE BEACH...ROCKLEDGE...PATRICK AIRFORCE
BASE...PALM BAY...MELBOURNE...MALABAR...INDIALANTIC...GRANT...COCOA
BEACH...CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...BAREFOOT BAY...

EXTREME NORTHERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN INLET...ROSELAND...

EAST CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LAKE MARIAN...KENANSVILLE...

* UNTIL 815 PM EST.

* AT 715 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADO ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM COCOA BEACH TO VIERA TO CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP
TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF KENANSVILLE...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

ANOTHER STORM CELL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A TORNADO AND
STRONG DAMAGAING WIND GUSTS WAS APPROACHING PALM BAY AND MALABAR
FORM THE SOUTHWEST.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SUNTREE...INDIAN HARBOUR BEACH...WEST MELBOURNE...MELBOURNE
BEACH...MICCO AND SEBASTIAN INLET RECREATION.

PEOPLE IN THE MENTIONED AREAS SHOULD WATCH AND LISTEN FOR THE
APPROACH OF THIS TORNADO OR OTHER TORNADOES AND BE READY TO TAKE
ACTION.

IF A TORNADO PASSES BY YOUR AREA...PLEASE INFORM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE SO THAT WARNING INFORMATION CAN BE UPDATED. YOUR REPORT COULD
SAVE LIVES!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO
SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW
SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



LAT...LON 2794 8052 2783 8047 2780 8121 2784 8124
2812 8084 2822 8082 2837 8074 2834 8071
2843 8070 2844 8066 2827 8066 2823 8063
2842 8063 2845 8053 2840 8059 2820 8059
2808 8056 2782 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 261DEG 32KT 2833 8058 2823 8072
2814 8074 2797 8091




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The Nexlab FL Page Main Text Page
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Anyone noticing a second surface low attempting to form in the Central Gulf with the new southern extension of the squall line down to the Yucatan?
Yup. Satellite shows some low-level rotation there, plus the CIMSS 850mb vorticity maps shows increasing vorticity there as of the 0z map:

Quoting cchsweatherman:
The Storm Prediction Center needs to expand the Tornado Watch to include South Florida. Satellite imagery shows a new, more intense squall line forming from the Yucatan into the Southern Gulf of Mexico moving towards South Florida with defined supercells within the line.


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011


...SE FL THROUGH MIDDAY...
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS ALREADY FORMING OVER
THE CENTRAL/NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND BE
LOCATED ACROSS SE FL BY 26/12Z. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS S FL IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER... ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND PASSAGE OF
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WAVE WELL TO THE N SUGGEST THAT THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL BEFORE ENDING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.


right now this is a "See text" only, but may change with the new Day 1 outlook, due out in about a half hour.
Florida is under there somewhere

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. Satellite shows some low-level rotation there, plus the CIMSS 850mb vorticity maps shows increasing vorticity there as of the 0z map:



Been watching it develop since 3PM this afternoon. Although the pressures don't verify it yet, something must be the catalyst for the new, more intense southern squall line extending to the Yucatan.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011


...SE FL THROUGH MIDDAY...
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS ALREADY FORMING OVER
THE CENTRAL/NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND BE
LOCATED ACROSS SE FL BY 26/12Z. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE ESTABLISHED
ACROSS S FL IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COULD
SUPPORT A FEW EMBEDDED BOW/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER... ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND PASSAGE OF
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WAVE WELL TO THE N SUGGEST THAT THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL BEFORE ENDING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.


right now this is a "See text" only, but may change with the new Day 1 outlook, due out in about a half hour.



More than likely will. Key phrase in bold below.

QLCS/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS CNTRL/SW
FL...WELL-AHEAD OF MESOSCALE MODEL TIMING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE HOW FAR S THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


seems like the top part is separating and weakening and the bottom is strengthening
It is clearly evolving.
Whew it's a good thing none to probally some of you only saw my rage yesterday when I was trashing Hypeuwea..Opps I mean accuweather.com.Anyway oh look what's this!?.My city is mentioned in the blog.But wait!!? what does it say?(some of the heaviest snows should miss D.C).Now that I'am not to happy about.Some one post the snow pictures please.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Whew it's a good thing none to probally some of you only saw my rage yesterday when I was trashing Hypeuwea..Opps I mean accuweather.com.Anyway oh look what's this!?.My city is mentioned in the blog.But wait!!? what does it say?(some of the heaviest snows should miss D.C).Now that I'am not to happy about.Some one post the snow pictures please.


You really want this???

The sky is really beginning to get dark at my place. Wonder what that means?
Tornado Watch for Palm Beach County.
Quoting Grothar:


You really want this???

Snow lover for life!!!.
Quoting Grothar:
The sky is really beginning to get dark at my place. Wonder what that means?
Night?
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM 800 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE
LINE...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LINE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY 05Z.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
Quoting Grothar:
The sky is really beginning to get dark at my place. Wonder what that means?


It should clear up in the morning.
The 8PM Miami observation soundings have now come in and they are incredibly impressive. All severe weather indices are much higher than at 2PM.


First major cyclone of the year (Category 3 or above)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


It should clear up in the morning.


Thanks, same thing happened last night at this time. :P
Sorry wrong information there.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay folks,ya gotta remember that unlike last year sst in the southern GOM are still warm,and that's one thing that's help fuling those thunderstorms.And to all you floridians stay safe and listn to local officials about warnings,and the latest with the weather.Have your weather emergency kit on hand as well.
My E key is stiff.Sorry.


SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM 800 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE
LINE...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LINE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY 05Z.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


Note: See the experimental Public Watch (SEL) product with explicit hazard information section below. The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM 800 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST.

ISOLATED TORNADOES
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE
LINE...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LINE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY 05Z.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM 800 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS ALONG THE
LINE...WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. LINE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY 05Z.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

WOUS64 KWNS 260055
WOU8

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

TORNADO WATCH 8 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC011-021-043-051-061-085-093-099-111-260500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0008.110126T0100Z-110126T0500Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWARD COLLIER GLADES
HENDRY INDIAN RIVER MARTIN
OKEECHOBEE PALM BEACH ST. LUCIE


AMZ555-610-650-GMZ656-260500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0008.110126T0100Z-110126T0500Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM

LAKE OKEECHOBEE

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...




Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes
Likelihood Moderate Low
Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind
Moderate Moderate
Severe Hail 2"+ Hail
Very Low Very Low


Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.

SAW8
WW 8 TORNADO FL CW 260100Z - 260500Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
35NNE PBI/WEST PALM BEACH FL/ - 10SSW APF/NAPLES FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /30NNE PBI - 34S FMY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.

LAT...LON 26427987 25298183 26738183 27877987

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.


Watch 8 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 8 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH FLORIDA

BROWARD COLLIER GLADES HENDRY PALM BEACH

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF... CLEWISTON... FORT LAUDERDALE... LA BELLE... MOORE HAVEN... NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH. TORNADOES... HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH... AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER... A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

782

NWUS22 KWNS 260106

STAHRY



SPC TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS

UNOFFICIAL - FOR OFFICIAL REPORTS, SEE PUBLICATION 'STORM DATA'

FOR 06CST TUE JAN 25 2011 THRU 19CST TUE JAN 25 2011



EVENT LOCATION REMARKS (CST)TIME



.....TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS..........TORNADO REPORTS.....



1 *TORN 4 WNW MYAKKA HEAD FL (25 ENE SRQ) 25/1715

PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR HIGHWAYTBW/LSR 2750 8214

64 AND WINGATE ROAD. N





.......LRG HAIL/STRONG WIND RPTS.............LRG HAIL/STRONG WIND RPTS......



3 WNDG SPRING HILL FL (35 NNE PIE) 25/1545

DAMAGE REPORTED TO TWO WINDOWS AND GARAGE DOOR.TBW/LSR 2844 8256

EXACT LOCATION NOT KNO

9 G 65 2 N SAINT PETERSBURG FL (8 S PIE) 25/1610

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 75 MPH. BRANCHES TBW/LSR 2779 8267

BREAKING OFF TREES.

4 WNDG GROVELAND FL (31 W ORL) 25/1621

INTERSECTION OF SR 19/50 TREES DOWN ON 12 TO 20MLB/LSR 2856 8185

HOMES. REPORT FROM LAK

10 G 52 4 SSE TAMPA FL (13 E PIE) 25/1624

60 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED. TBW/LSR 2791 8245

5 WNDG 2 NNW SAINT PETERSBURG FL (9 S PIE) 25/1635

OF 38TH AVE N AND 24TH

6 WNDG LAKE MARY FL (13 N ORL) 25/1707

POWER LINES DOWN AT WESLEY LAKE AND MEADOW BAY MLB/LSR 2876 8133

COURT

11 G 55 SANFORD FL (16 N ORL) 25/1714

SANFORD/ORLANDO AIRPORT ASOS PEAK WIND MLB/LSR 2879 8128

27055/2314

7 WNDG GENEVA FL (17 NE ORL) 25/1723

SANFORD PD REPORTED POWER LINES DOWN AT OSCEOLAMLB/LSR 2874 8112

ROAD AND OSCEOLA BLUFF

12 G 52 PORT ORANGE FL (3 SSE DAB) 25/1731

MLB/LSR 2912 8103





.........OTHER SEVERE REPORTS..................OTHER SEVERE REPORTS.........



2 A100 6 W BROOKSVILLE FL (44 NNE PIE) 25/1540

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED TBW/LSR 2855 8249

8 G 50 2 NNE MASARYKTOWN FL (40 NNE PIE) 25/1544

50 KNOT WIND GUST REPORTED AT BROOKSVILLE TBW/LSR 2847 8245

HERNANDO COUNTY AIRPOR
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SEBASTIAN...WINTER BEACH...WABASSO...
VERO BEACH SOUTH...VERO BEACH...SEBASTIAN INLET...INDIAN RIVER
SHORES...GIFFORD...
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...OKEECHOBEE...FORT DRUM...BASINGER...
NORTHERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF INDRIO...

* UNTIL 915 PM EST.


* AT 806 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERAL CIRCULATION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...ALONG A SQUALL
LINE PUSHING INTO INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
THE CIRCULATIONS WERE LOCATED NEAR VERO LAKE ESTATES...FORT DRUM
AND JUST SOUTH OF BASINGER...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.


* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FOUR
SEASONS ESTATES...VERO LAKE ESTATES...SEBASTIAN INLET RECREATION...
LAKEWOOD PARK...VERO BEACH HIGHLANDS...SOUTH BEACH...SAINT LUCIE
AIRPORT...SAINT LUCIE VILLAGE AND QUEENS COVE
Upadated Miami NWS Discussion:

THE FORECAST REASONING CONTINUES UNCHANGED SINCE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WEST OF COLLIER COUNTY
COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF SOME DISCRETE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SEVERE. ANOTHER AREA
OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA. THE MAIN ENERGY TO FUEL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS THE LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD. ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS THE 0-6 KM
SHEAR IS LESS THAN 50 KNOTS SOUTH OF PALM BEACH AND HENDRY
COUNTIES WITH A TONGUE OF 50 KNOT SHEAR EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO SOUTHWEST OF COLLIER COUNTY. THE SURFACE TO 1KM SHEAR
INCREASES AS WE MOVE NORTHWARD. AT 730 PM EST THE STRONGEST
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWEST OF
COLLIER COUNTY. IF AN ISOLATED TORNADO WERE TO OCCUR THIS EVENING
IT WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. NORTHERN
COLLIER...HENDRY...AND NORTH PALM BEACH COUNTIES INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WILL BE THE FIRST LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE THE IMPACT OF
THE SQUALL LINE WITHIN THE NEXT 45 MINUTES TO AN HOUR AND A HALF.
About damn time they issued the Tornado Watch for South Florida.
I would not be surprised to see Warnings later on tonight, looking at the large number of Meso Cyclones that are appearing on the line moving down this way.
The system currently producing the Tornadic thunderstorms across Florida should re-strengthen once emerging off the East Coast of the United States, and become a heavy Snow producer for the Northeast.

The storm next week could be a whole lot worse in terms of Snowfall though...
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (12U)
9:00 AM WST January 26 2011
=======================================

At 8:00 am WST, Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category Two (984 hPa) located at 18.8S 119.7E, or 285 km west southwest of Broome and 205 km northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves to the southwest over open waters west of Broome. The cyclone is expected to intensify further as it moves steadily parallel to the Pilbara coast today and on Thursday.

Gales are expected for a period between Wallal and Port Hedland this morning, extending to Karratha tonight and then to Coral Bay on Thursday. Destructive winds with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland and Karratha later today and moving further west overnight.

Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between Cape Leveque and Port Hedland, extending west later today and on Thursday. Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected.

Residents of Port Hedland and Karratha are warned of the potential for a dangerous storm tide. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and dangerous flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watch
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to Coral Bay.

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal communities between Bidyadanga and Wallal has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 19.6S 117.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 20.6S 115.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 23.7S 110.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 28.5S 108.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
========================

0.8-1.0 banding on recent IR imagery gives 3.5 DT. MET is 3.0, PAT 3.5. FT is set to 3.5 within constraints and hence CI is 3.5. ADT indicates CI around 3.1 but may be having some issues with intensifying this sytem rapidly enough. Raw DTs are around 3.8. AMSU intensity estimate at 17Z indicated 1-min mean of 51 knots but may have a slight high bias.

Port Hedland radar shows early signs of a tighter inner eye wall [radius around 20-25nm] replacing the large banding eye evident in IR. Shear is low [4.4m/s at 18Z] and expected to increase only marginally over the next 48 hours. Ocean heat content is high along the forecast track over the next 36 hours. Hence further intensification is forecast. By late Wednesday or Thursday it is likely to reach severe cyclone [hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in beneath the mid level trough.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Cyclone Bianca will be at 3:00 AM UTC..
The squall line passed through my part of Naples a few minutes ago. A couple of lightning flashes, very little wind, and heavy rain (50-55 dBZ) for three minutes or so. We're on the back side of the line now; the rain is steady, but lighter (35 dBZ). That's okay; the slower it comes, the less it will run off into the Gulf. In fact, a couple of hours at this rate would be just fine by me... ;-)
Wind gust reported earlier by my house in St.Petersburg of 75MPH. Gas station cover tipped over and crushed a car, also many trees down in the area.
NWS Storm Reports

Note: All data are considered preliminary
Tornado Reports (CSV) (Raw Tornado CSV)(?)
Time Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2315 4 WNW MYAKKA HEAD MANATEE FL 2750 8214 PUBLIC REPORT OF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 64 AND WINGATE ROAD. NO DAMAGE REPORTED AT THIS TIME. (TBW)
Hail Reports (CSV) (Raw Hail CSV)(?)
No reports received
Wind Reports (CSV) (Raw Wind CSV)(?)
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
2210 75 2 N SAINT PETERSBURG PINELLAS FL 2779 8267 ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 75 MPH. BRANCHES BREAKING OFF TREES. (TBW)
2221 UNK GROVELAND LAKE FL 2856 8185 INTERSECTION OF SR 19/50 TREES DOWN ON 12 TO 20 HOMES. REPORT FROM LAKE COUNTY EM. (MLB)
2224 60 4 SSE TAMPA HILLSBOROUGH FL 2791 8245 60 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED. (TBW)
2235 UNK 2 NNW SAINT PETERSBURG PINELLAS FL 2778 8268 GAS STATION CANOPY COLLAPSED NEAR INTERSECTION OF 38TH AVE N AND 24TH ST N. (TBW)
2307 UNK LAKE MARY SEMINOLE FL 2876 8133 POWER LINES DOWN AT WESLEY LAKE AND MEADOW BAY COURT (MLB)
2314 63 SANFORD SEMINOLE FL 2879 8128 SANFORD/ORLANDO AIRPORT ASOS PEAK WIND 27055/2314 (MLB)
2323 UNK GENEVA SEMINOLE FL 2874 8112 SANFORD PD REPORTED POWER LINES DOWN AT OSCEOLA ROAD AND OSC
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The system currently producing the Tornadic thunderstorms across Florida should re-strengthen once emerging off the East Coast of the United States, and become a heavy Snow producer for the Northeast.

The storm next week could be a whole lot worse in terms of Snowfall though...
Oh that's wondrful.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh that's wondrful.
Got dammit,that E key of mine is acting up.Looks like rough night in florida.Has their been any reports of flooding/power outage down there?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Got dammit,that E key of mine is acting up.


Pick up your keyboard, turn it over, and give it a few hard shakes in all directions.
Looks like the squall line is getting stronger.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Got dammit,that E key of mine is acting up.Looks like rough night in florida.Has their been any reports of flooding/power outage down there?


Several reports of Severe flooding (In some cases, water up to the doors of houses) across Florida. Power outages being reported in the same area.
561. JRRP
Here we were writing off the poor system, and now look...Seems to be a Category 3/4 (I do not really keep up with systems that aren't in the ATL, so I do not know the strength of the system).



For that reason, I'm not writing Anthony off...But the poor system looks like it is having quite a hard time with Wind Shear (Looks kind of like Fiona being sheared from Earl).

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Just had to post a bigger image than mine, huh?? LOL
Quoting Neapolitan:
The squall line passed through my part of Naples a few minutes ago. A couple of lightning flashes, very little wind, and heavy rain (500-55 dBZ) for three minutes or so. We're on the back side of the line now; the rain is steady, but lighter (35 dBZ). That's okay; the slower it comes, the less it will run off into the Gulf. In fact, a couple of hours at this rate would be just fine by me... ;-)


Sure sounds like a heck of a lot less than we got up here in Pinellas County!
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Pick up your keyboard, turn it over, and give it a few hard shakes in all directions.
I'll try it!.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Several reports of Severe flooding (In some cases, water up to the doors of houses) across Florida. Power outages being reported in the same area.
I Hope those people were prepared,and got out safely.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Okay folks,ya gotta remember that unlike last year sst in the southern GOM are still warm,and that's one thing that's help fuling those thunderstorms.And to all you floridians stay safe and listn to local officials about warnings,and the latest with the weather.Have your weather emergency kit on hand as well.


lol you might wanna take that back, water temps are not warm unlike last year, this system just had a lot of dynamics, moisture, and energy to work with. The water temps are in the low to mid 50's off the coast here. Virtually the same as last winter actually.

Unless you are referring to the warm loop current? If that's the case, any energy those storms get from that loop current, won't make a difference for Florida, because they must travel over cold water soon after.
Quoting Jedkins01:


lol you might wanna take that back, water temps are not warm unlike last year, this system just had a lot of dynamics, moisture, and energy to work with. The water temps are in the low to mid 50's off the coast here. Virtually the same as last winter actually.
The sst map I was reading might of been wrong then.Sadly I really don't know how to delete coments.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The sst map I was reading might of been wrong then.Sadly I really don't know how to delete coments.



I don't either lol, its all good though.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The sst map I was reading might of been wrong then.Sadly I really don't know how to delete coments.


Just choose 'Modify comment' and wipe it out. But you have to put in something, like a period.
Quoting Grothar:
Looks like the squall line is getting stronger.

Yes it does...I have seen quite a few like that in the past.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Just choose 'Modify comment' and wipe it out. But you have to put in something, like a period.
Okay I had edit it with an apology note insted for giving the wrong information.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
12:00 PM FST January 26 2011
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category Four (950 hPa) located at 22.9S 177.2E has 10 minute winds of 90 knots and is reported as moving west southwest at 18 knots. Position GOOD based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant, 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and 90 NM from the center elsewhere

Additional Information
=========================

Overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Eye well defined. WILMA continues to intensify with eye warming and convective tops cooling. Outflow good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. WILMA steered by southeast deep layer mean. System lies under an upper diffluent region. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast path. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on OW eye and B surrounding, yielding DT=5.5 MET=5.5 PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24HRS.

Most global models move WILMA west southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 23.8S 174.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 24.8S 172.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 27.8S 169.1E - 85 knots (CAT 3)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:30 AM UTC..
TWO TORNADO VORTEX SIGNATURES DETECTED IN EVERGLADES AND MOVING INTO BROWARD COUNTY.


Quoting Jedkins01:


lol you might wanna take that back, water temps are not warm unlike last year, this system just had a lot of dynamics, moisture, and energy to work with. The water temps are in the low to mid 50's off the coast here. Virtually the same as last winter actually.

Unless you are referring to the warm loop current? If that's the case, any energy those storms get from that loop current, won't make a difference for Florida, because they must travel over cold water soon after.


Well, won't be long until those SST's in the GOMEX will make a major comeback.


centre fix relocated
Quoting Jedkins01:


lol you might wanna take that back, water temps are not warm unlike last year, this system just had a lot of dynamics, moisture, and energy to work with. The water temps are in the low to mid 50's off the coast here. Virtually the same as last winter actually.

Unless you are referring to the warm loop current? If that's the case, any energy those storms get from that loop current, won't make a difference for Florida, because they must travel over cold water soon after.


Yep. Last year, the Gulf off of Clearwater Beach reached a low water temperature reading of 48F in mid-January, after 2 weeks of exceptionally (a record in terms of duration) cold weather.

But this year it has been as low as 50F and it has hung in the low or mid fifties most of the way since early December. Those are the temps for the near shore waters, of course, but still, they are a lot colder than is normal, especially for such a long period of time.

This storm system of today got very strong in spite of such colder than normal near shore water temperatures. One can only wonder what it would have been like had the water temperatures been well above average.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
TWO TORNADO VORTEX SIGNATURES DETECTED IN EVERGLADES AND MOVING INTO BROWARD COUNTY.


It's gonna be an interesting night here in downtown Miami.



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN BROWARD COUNTY
NORTHWESTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
SOUTHEASTERN HENDRY COUNTY
EAST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY

* FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55
MPH...FUNNEL CLOUDS

* UNTIL 1015 PM EST.
AT 936 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF BIG
CYPRESS SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION TO 5 MILES NORTH OF BIG CYPRESS
NATIONAL PRESERVE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE INDIAN RESERVATION COLLIER/BROWARD LINE AND
ALLIGATOR ALLEY MICCOSUKEE SERVICE PLAZA INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR
ALLEY AND MIAMI CANAL AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Yep. Last year, the Gulf off of Clearwater Beach reached a low water temperature reading of 48F in mid-January, after 2 weeks of exceptionally (a record in terms of duration) cold weather.

But this year it has been as low as 50F and it has hung in the low or mid fifties most of the way since early December. Those are the temps for the near shore waters, of course, but still, they are a lot colder than is normal, especially for such a long period of time.

This storm system of today got very strong in spite of such colder than normal near shore water temperatures. One can only wonder what it would have been like had the water temperatures been well above average.


Yeah really! Imagine if we got this setup in March or April!
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Yep. Last year, the Gulf off of Clearwater Beach reached a low water temperature reading of 48F in mid-January, after 2 weeks of exceptionally (a record in terms of duration) cold weather.

But this year it has been as low as 50F and it has hung in the low or mid fifties most of the way since early December. Those are the temps for the near shore waters, of course, but still, they are a lot colder than is normal, especially for such a long period of time.

This storm system of today got very strong in spite of such colder than normal near shore water temperatures. One can only wonder what it would have been like had the water temperatures been well above average.
Looks like the line is beginning to weaken as a result of upper energy and low level jet lifting out to the northeast.

However, not to downplay the squall line, its still a line of strong storms, however it has lost punch obviously compared to earlier, when at one point up to 7 active tornado warnings at one time were present and even more severe thunderstorms warnings on top of that. Now all warnings have ended.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Looks like the line is beginning to weaken as a result of upper energy and low level jet lifting out to the northeast.

However, not to downplay the squall line, its still a line of strong storms, however it has lost punch obviously compared to earlier, when at one point up to 7 active tornado warnings at one time were present and even more severe thunderstorms warnings on top of that. Now all warnings have ended.


I'd have to disagree especially with multiple TV signatures developing in the past hour.
This is going to be a long night for South Florida. The line is fast approaching Royal Palm Beach.


weakening flag flag
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I'd have to disagree especially with multiple TV signatures developing in the past hour.


Yeah but they aren't as strong as they were earlier, the line is being mainly fueled by warm and very moist air at this point, rather than the upper support to provide widespread severe warnings.

A couple more warnings may still be issued though. Whatever the case, the line still needs to be watched carefully.
Reflectivity, storm tops, and lighting count has lessened. Not to mention the warnings were all canceled. This line is still quite strong though, but the severe threat has diminished some I believe. I expect my forecast of that to hold into the night. But that doesn't mean down burst winds and maybe a tornado can't be ruled out.
almost all DBZ's are in the low 40's now with one isolated area of 50's
Evening folks!

Weak squall (compared to earlier today) line moving through south Florida tonight.



weakening flag on
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah but they aren't as strong as they were earlier, the line is being mainly fueled by warm and very moist air at this point, rather than the upper support to provide widespread severe warnings.

A couple more warnings may still be issued though. Whatever the case, the line still needs to be watched carefully.


These storms are stronger than when they hit the West Coast.

I had just finished asking the president a qustion.But since this is a weather blog..anywho our local meteorologist Doug Kammerer said the 4-8" line could push futher south in the D.C area if the storm tracks further east.Do I count on it?.Defentially not.Also one time on the nbcwashington website it said "local residents are furious! about getting no snow".So you see I'm not the only crazy washingtonian all strung,and crazed out over snow!!
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC011-099-260400-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0001.110126T0323Z-110126T0400Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1023 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1100 PM EST

* AT 1019 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF WELLINGTON TO 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PARKLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
GOLDEN LAKES...
HAVERHILL...
GREENACRES CITY...
MISSION BAY...
LAKE WORTH...
COCONUT CREEK...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO
ADVANCE WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN AN INTERIOR
ROOM IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOUSE OR BUSINESS IF A TORNADO IS
SPOTTED.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

&&

LAT...LON 2655 8003 2655 8004 2645 8005 2638 8007
2629 8007 2622 8009 2631 8044 2670 8027
2669 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 282DEG 22KT 2661 8022 2636 8035

$$

BAXTER
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Great gif! Watching the rapid low cloud inflow earlier as this thing passed over was quite impressive. Interesting to see the same influence on the back side. N-S nearly. Looks like a sideways tornado in its own right, across the state. It will be interesting to see how the influence of inflow over water, from nearly 3 sides, will impact it as it exits Florida.
the line hasn't completely run out of severe gas just yet...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


weakening flag on
But that's still a nasty looking squall line.
Defined couplet on radar approaching Western Broward suburbs.


601. Jax82
Got a good soaking here, thankfully!

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Defined couplet on radar approaching Western Broward suburbs.




Was there not a higher CAPE value pocket(shown earlier) to the W-SW or SW of the tip of Florida? How would that impact this line once tapped?
lets see if this rain here in S florida can put a dent on the drought conditions, need 2.3 inches of rain here in wpb to meet the average for the month.
Quoting Ossqss:


Was there not a higher CAPE value pocket(shown earlier) to the W-SW or SW of the tip of Florida? How would that impact this line once tapped?




CAPE isn't all that high right now (It could be, but its not for me since I live in Tx and CAPE values of 2000+ usually occur), but it will likely keep the thunderstorms around Severe limits for the next couple of hours.
Hmmm, that avatar looks familiar...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




CAPE isn't all that high right now (It could be, but its not for me since I live in Tx and CAPE values of 2000 usually occur), but it will likely keep the thunderstorms around Severe limits for the next couple of hours.


Thanks, we are certainly getting some much needed rain. Let's hope we have had minimal trouble from this as it moved through the state. L8R

News is showing some homes in Groveland (Lake County) that were destroyed.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1145 PM EST

* AT 1057 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST RANCHES TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PENNSUCO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
MIRAMAR...
DORAL...
CAROL CITY...
HOLLYWOOD...

AVENTURA...
EL PORTAL...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.


This could be worse than Y2K.

:(
That area is a magnet for bad stuff in South Florida.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Hmmm, that avatar looks familiar...
its from a friend that no longer haunts the blog i believe it was refer too as a weather dragon i figured if he wont show up cannot say the dragon can not be here
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




CAPE isn't all that high right now (It could be, but its not for me since I live in Tx and CAPE values of 2000+ usually occur), but it will likely keep the thunderstorms around Severe limits for the next couple of hours.



lol dude that's cause its January, in Florida CAPE between 3000 and 5000 are pretty common during the wet season across central and southern Florida
Thank God weather is the subject for once instead of ridiculous Global Warming fights!



next system at end of run may be trouble western gulf coast eastward
Wilma Bombed..
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 922.1mb/119.8kt


storm is really dieing out, doubt 0.3 inches of rain will end a drought
Quoting PalmBeachWeatherBoy:
storm is really dieing out, doubt 0.3 inches of rain will end a drought


yeah that it did
FL lightning summary

Lightning/2000 v5.3.1 Summary (Tuesday, January 25, 2011 at 11:59:46 PM EST)

Since midnight (1439.8 mins.):
Total strokes: 62,705 (avg. 43.6/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud strokes: 33,616 - 53.6% (avg. 23.3/min.)
IC: 22,057 - 65.6% (avg. 15.3/min.)
-IC: 11,559 - 34.4% (avg. 8.0/min.)
Cloud to ground strokes: 28,793 - 45.9% (avg. 20.0/min.)
CG: 5727 - 19.9% (avg. 4.0/min.)
-CG: 23,066 - 80.1% (avg. 16.0/min.)
Compact Intercloud Discharge: 216 - 0.3% (avg. 0.2/min.)

Total flashes: 37,371 (avg. 26.0/min.)
Cloud to ground flashes: 18,895 (avg. 13.1/min.)
CG flashes: 4532 (avg. 3.1/min.)
-CG flashes: 14,363 (avg. 10.0/min.)
Intercloud/Intracloud flashes: 18,260 (avg. 12.7/min.)
IC flashes: 11,681 (avg. 8.1/min.)
-IC flashes: 6579 (avg. 4.6/min.)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


next system at end of run may be trouble western gulf coast eastward


Approaching peak severe time in the SE. one would think La Nina put the Kaboshes on that but, not this year apparently.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
TROPICAL CYCLONE BIANCA (12U)
3:00 PM WST January 26 2011
=======================================

At 2:00 pm WST, Tropical Cyclone Bianca, Category Two (980 hPa) located at 19.4S 118.2E, or 110 km north northwest of Port Hedland and 205 km northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

Tropical Cyclone Bianca continues to develop as it moves quickly west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. The cyclone is expected to continue to intensify overnight and on Thursday.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected for a period between De Grey and Whim Creek this afternoon, extending to Karratha late this afternoon or this evening and to Onslow and Exmouth during Thursday morning. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Whim Creek and Mardie later today, moving further west overnight.

If the cyclone moves closer to the coast VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 200 kilometres per hour may be experienced at Onslow and Exmouth during Thursday morning.

Heavy rain is expected in coastal parts between De Grey and Mardie during this afternoon, extending further west overnight. Localised stream rises are likely but widespread flooding is not expected.

Residents of Pilbara coastal communities west of Whim Creek, including Wickham, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth are warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS COASTAL FLOODING.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings/Watch
================================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from De Grey to Coral Bay.

The Cyclone WARNING from Wallal to De Grey has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.3S 115.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 21.2S 113.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 24.6S 108.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 29.4S 106.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
========================

1.1 banding on recent VIS imagery gives 4.0 DT. MET is 4.0 based on a D+ trend, PAT 4.0. FT is set to 4.0 within constraints and hence CI is 4.0. SATCON at 23Z indicated 60 knots 1-min wind, with ADT at 48 knots and CIMSS AMSU at 64 knots. 1-min winds at Bedout Island have reached a maximum of 54 knots [0405Z] as the system centre passed close by. Bedout is on the southern side and appears to have gone through the eyewall so will have likely experienced close to the maximum winds at that time. Final intensity estimate is set at 55 knots 10-min wind with relatively high confidence given the lower bounds provided by the offshore obs and the subjective assessment of the radar and microwave imagery in agreement with Dvorak estimates.

Radar shows inner eye wall radius of around 20-25nm with recent evidence that an intense Cb has generated an asymmetry in the NW of the eyewall. Shear has increased slightly [8.1m/s at 06Z] but is expected to increase only marginally over the next 48 hours. Ocean heat content is high along the forecast track over the next 36 hours. Hence further intensification is forecast. By late Wednesday or Thursday it is likely to reach severe cyclone [hurricane] intensity. Weakening is then likely from late Friday as the system moves over cooler SSTs and experiences increasing shear.

The system is expected to be steered steadily towards the west southwest by a strong mid-level ridge until late Friday when an amplifying trough will result in the system being steered towards the south. On Sunday the remnants of the system will experience very high shear as a strong surface ridge pushes in beneath the mid level trough.

The next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Cyclone Bianca will be at 9:00 AM UTC..
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA (06F)
18:00 PM FST January 26 2011
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Wilma, Category Four (940 hPa) located at 23.4S 176.0E has 10 minute winds of 95 knots and is reported as moving west southwest at 16 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center in southeast quadrant, 90 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and 120 NM from the center elsewhere

Additional Information
=========================

Overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Eye well defined. WILMA continues to intensify with eye warming and convective tops cooling. Outflow good. WILMA steered by southeast deep layer mean regime. System lies under an upper diffluent region. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast path. Sea surface temperature around 27C.

Dvorak analysis based on OW eye and B surround, eye adjustment of +0.5 yielding DT=6.0, MET=6.0, PT=6.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS.

Most global models move WILMA west southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
============================
12 HRS: 23.4S 173.8E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 25.4S 172.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 28.6S 170.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC..
except for one exceptionally loud boom the passing storms were not all that bad
625. IKE
One tornado report from yesterday.....


Quoting IKE:
One tornado report from yesterday.....




Considering that every county in Cent FL was under a tornado warning at some point yesterday, the confirmed tornado's and the damage was minimal.
Morning, All in all the storms were not that bad in my neck of the woods. Had 1.25 of rain and some wind. Heard there was some damage in lake county on the news this morning. A few houses hit by trees.St pete had some damage at a gas station and a car flip over there.
628. IKE

Quoting severstorm:
Morning, All in all the storms were not that bad in my neck of the woods. Had 1.25 of rain and some wind. Heard there was some damage in lake county on the news this morning. A few houses hit by trees.St pete had some damage at a gas station and a car flip over there.
Glad it wasn't that bad. Looks like a nice weekend setting up.
629. IKE
High pressure over the northern GOM this weekend.....





Phil Jones - by CRU, the year 2010 was the equal third (see footnote) warmest on record (with 2003), exceeded by 1998 and 2005
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/
Link

Storms weren't too terrible last night. I do appreciate them showing up right at 5:00 though so as to maximize the crappiness of my drive home from work.

Morning.

Regarding that discussion about Norton Anti-virus vs Avast?

The answer is...neither.

Best solution?

Linux w/built in firewall, Firefox and a Plug-in called NoScript.

Source? Senior Oracle Database Programmer who works for a global company and has to deal with the internet all the time.

He said...'I realize that there are some things I cannot do as "easily" by never running Windows, but then, I have never had to waste so much money and time dealing with the security issues... I'd rather have the time and money to work on the house.

From what I have read, Windows 7 is finally about as good on its security as Linux was 10 years ago, which is pretty darn good for Windows.'


634. DEKRE
calusakat
Or MacOS w/built in firewall, Firefox and a Plug-in called NoScript.