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U.S. heat wave blamed for 22 deaths; Bret and Cindy no threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2011

The dangerous U.S. heat wave of July 2011 will continue to bring another day of exceptionally humid heat to over 100 million Americans today, with 33 states plus the District of Columbia currently under heat advisories. The heat index--how hot the air feels when factoring in both the temperature and the humidity--exceeded 100° in twenty states in the Central and Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, peaking at 123° in Council Bluffs, Iowa. At least 22 deaths are being blamed on the heat in the Midwest. The extreme humidity that has accompanied this heat has made it a very dangerous one, since the body is much less able to cool itself when the humidity is high. The high humidities are due, in great part, to the record rains and flooding in the Midwest over the past few months that have saturated soils and left farmlands flooded. Accompanying the heat has been high levels of air pollution, which also contributes to mortality. Air pollution is expected exceed federal standards and reach code orange, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", in at least 22 states today, according to the latest forecasts from EPA.

The extreme heat peaked in Chicago yesterday, where the temperature hit 100° at Midway Airport and the Chicago Lakefront station. Rockford, Illinois hit 100°, the first time in 22 years that city had seen 100° temperatures. Detroit is expected to hit 100° for the first time in sixteen years today, and I think I'm going to skip the Ann Arbor Art Fair! New York City and the mid-Atlantic states are expected to be near 100° on Friday. The forecast high of 103° in Washington D.C. for Friday is just 3° below the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city, 106°. The heat will continue in the mid-Atlantic states through Sunday, then ease on Monday when a cold front is expected to pass through. Wunderground's climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has some good insights on the current heat wave in his latest post. A few notable highlights from this week:

Omaha, Nebraska has been above 80° for a four-day period beginning on July 17. This is the 2nd longest such stretch on record, next to the 8-day period that ended July 25, 1934. Multi-day periods when the low temperatures do not cool off below 75° are associated with high heat wave death rates.

Amarillo, Texas recorded its 26th day of 100° temperatures yesterday, tying the city's record for most 100° days in a year, last set in 1953. Record keeping in the city goes back to 1892.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, recorded its highest dew point ever, 82°, on Tuesday. The heat index hit a remarkable 118° in the city, which tied July 11, 1966 for the highest heat index on record in the city. Minnesota's all-time highest dew point temperature of 86° was tied on Sunday, in Madison. The previous record was in St. James and Pipestone in July of 2005.

The latest National Weather Service storm summary has a list of cities where the heat index exceeded 100° yesterday.


Figure 1. On Wednesday, heat advisories for this dangerous heat wave covered portions of 33 states plus the District of Columbia, an area with 141 million people--about half the population of the U.S.

Tropical Storm Bret no threat
Tropical Storm Bret continues to struggle with high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, and high shear is expected to affect the storm the remainder of the week. The combination of high wind shear and dry air nearby should act to destroy Bret by Sunday, and the storm is not a threat to any land areas.

Tropical Storm Cindy forms
Tropical Storm Cindy formed yesterday 600 miles to the east of Bermuda. Cindy's formation was 24 days ahead of the usual formation date for the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is August 13. This year has the most early season activity since 2008, when Hurricane Dolly got named on July 20. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain moderate for several days. However, Cindy has moved over cool ocean waters of 25°C this morning, and this temperature is 1.5°C below the threshold of 26.5°C that tropical storms typically need in order to maintain their strength. With Cindy predicted to move over waters of just 21°C by Friday morning, the storm doesn't have long to live. Cindy is not a threat to any land areas.

An African wave worth watching
An African wave near 12N 50W, 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west to west-northwest at about 15 mph, and is generating a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms due to the presence of a large amount of dust and dry air from the Sahara. This wave will spread heavy rain showers and strong gusty winds to the northern Lesser Antilles beginning on Saturday. The wave has a modest degree of spin to it, and is under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots. Once it finds a moister environment near the Bahama Islands early next week, it could develop. Of the latest 00Z and 06Z runs of the four reliable models for predicting formation of a tropical depression, only the NOGAPS model shows development of the wave. The NOGAPS predicts the wave could attain tropical depression status on Wednesday, just off the coast of South Carolina. The other models generally depict too much wind shear over the Bahamas for the wave to develop. The eventual track of the wave once it reaches the Bahamas early next week is uncertain; there will be a trough of low pressure located off the U.S. East Coast that will be capable of turning the wave to the north, along the East Coast. However, it is also quite possible that the wave would be too weak and to far south to feel the influence of this trough, and instead would enter the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Dora.

Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific close to Category 5
Hurricane Dora in the Eastern Pacific put on an impressive burst of intensification over the past 24 hours, and is now a very impressive Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, just 1 mph short of Category 5 status. Dora is expected to move parallel to the coast of Mexico, and should not cause any major trouble in that country. Dora is the second major hurricane in the East Pacific this year; Hurricane Adrian topped out as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds in early June.

Think cold. Way cold!
Those of us sweltering in today's heat would do well to consider that on this date in 1983, Vostok, Antarctica shivered at -128°F--the coldest temperature ever measured on Earth. The low tonight in Vostok is expected to be a relatively balmy -80°F.

Jeff Masters

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. alfabob
Quoting sunlinepr:


I agree on all except Dry air... Dark area S of PR, ahead of the wave represents dry air... (Correct me if wrong)
Link


That is the same dry air that was in front of the wave yesterday, look at 200mb winds. Everything is being pushed westward, and since it is relative to the wave it doesn't count as shear. There is a large amount of moisture surrounding the area, the worst that can happen is some of the moisture from the east being pushed ahead of the wave. This will also affect the ULL, which will only aid in development over the next few days. So ULL -> aids in ULAC -> pushes ULL NW.
CATL wave looks less organized tonight. It may not hold together as it passes N of PR.
That wave is moving really fast; Almost reaching and starting to interact with the E side of the ULL over RD & PR...


1004. alfabob
Ring of convection forming and 2-3mb below MSLP. Will it persist? who knows, but it's pretty interesting; hope it doesn't pull a Tomas.

Dora the explorer adventure in the E.Pac is coming to an end. It was great thing to watch. Glad no one got inside of her. It would have been devastating.
501

ABNT20 KNHC 220553

TWOAT



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 910 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE

AZORES. ADVISORIES ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED ON TROPICAL STORM

BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.



A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS

IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR

SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF

PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH

THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER

ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.
20%
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.
1008. JRRP
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE COULD BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

1009. alfabob
Well they bumped it up to 20%; but if that really is a COC trying to form, this will quickly rise.
I was expecting this 20%. Good Night everyone.
20% Cool. Now maybe if it becomes an invest soon at least the spaghetti models will recognize its there. Sigh. I don't know if the NOGAPS is right but at least it knows its there. Lol.
At least for PR & RD seems that we will have a rainy and stormy weekend... cause that wave is going to slow its speed soon over us.... No sunny beach this weekend...
Bedtime...

Link

1013. WxLogic
Indeed... as it gets closer to the ULL over E Cuba the ventilation should improve further at upper levels and help it sustain TSTM activity.
ECMWF now more similar to NOGAPS. It still doesn't develop the tw. But it sends it in blob form up the entire length of Florida. Definitely seeing more trough, less ridge on this run. Sigh. Hang in there fellow Texans. We'll get our rain blob one day. ;) Night y'all.
1015. tj175
The wave chance bumped up to 20%. Where is it headed guys?
1016. rod2635
Gasp...overnight minimum just 83 here in philly
1017. rod2635
And heat index now higher in Philly at this early hour than in Key West. Something that is exceedingly rare in summer considering ocean water temps in KW at or above 90 degrees.
CINDY RACING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC
5:00 AM AST Fri Jul 22
Location: 44.5°N 39.9°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NE at 29 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
cindy still going!! its not tropical anymore!
mdr is becoming alittle more active
Quoting islander101010:
mdr is becoming alittle more active
might be another yellow coming
1021. aquak9
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
ECMWF now more similar to NOGAPS. It still doesn't develop the tw. But it sends it in blob form up the entire length of Florida. Definitely seeing more trough, less ridge on this run. Sigh. Hang in there fellow Texans. We'll get our rain blob one day. ;) Night y'all.


more trough less ridge?
I knew I liked you, atHome. Even if ya DO eat all the donuts. :)
Good Morning to all:

I am preparing here in San Juan to recieve some squally weather this weekend,hopefully nothing more.

Discussion of wave from Crown Weather Services:

Tropical Wave Located 500 Miles East Of The Windward Islands:
I am closely watching a tropical wave that is located around 500 miles to the east of the Windward Islands this morning. This tropical wave is producing on and off popcorn type shower and thunderstorm activity, where it fires up for several hours and then weakens thereafter. The reason for the lack of deep, sustained convection is that there continues to be a large amount of dry, dusty air from the Sahara of Africa.

This tropical wave is expected to continue tracking west-northwestward this weekend into next week and will bring some very squally weather to the northern Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico from Saturday into Sunday with heavy rainfall and gusty winds to 40 to 50 mph expected.

Even though vertical wind shear values are low enough to support tropical development, the dry, dusty air near this tropical wave will prevent it from developing into a tropical cyclone. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that the atmosphere is moister near the Bahamas and it is possible that this tropical wave may try to develop into a tropical cyclone once it reaches the Bahamas on Monday and Tuesday; although, this is not a sure thing. Only the NOGAPS model is forecasting development into a tropical cyclone during the early and middle part of next week. All of the other global model guidance members are saying no to development.

At this point, I think it is going to be a pretty much wait and see game for the next several days. I will say I do not expect tropical cyclone development from this tropical wave from today through Sunday night with the first chance of possible development arriving during Monday and Tuesday. Either way, I will keep a close eye on this tropical wave and will keep you all updated on the latest.



Lots of 80's in Texas this morning for so called low temps. I live out in the country and it is barely below 80. Have a great Friday, sorry but this heat wave and severe drought have gotten to me, I hate seeing everything outdoors die.
1025. P451
82F, 77DP, 630am.
SE NY State.
Dead stagnant airmass this AM.

bad news i do not see any big trough for the next 10 days
tropical wave approaching the leewards see two lows on vis. 14 n at this time seems strongest and one at 22n which i believe will become the dominate one
Quoting islander101010:
tropical wave approaching the leewards see two lows on vis. 14 n at this time seems strongest and one at 22n which i believe will become the dominate one
nhc will shortly increase to 40% at 30w 12 n that will be 20%
what is going on here!!
1030. P451
Dora getting torn to shreds from the outflow off of Mexico. Looked like she would just decay in cold waters but that shear really ramped up overnight.

18HR IR:






AOI: 12HR WV:






Both ending ~6am et.
Things to watch, nothing imminent, I'm good with that.
1032. emcf30
I see our wave is looking a little better this morning.



Seems to be shoving the dry are West. Area Moistening up. Don't see any type of development until it reaches the Bahamas ( If any ) where it will not have any dry air intrusion issues maybe the beginning of next week. We shall see


Quoting islander101010:
nhc will shortly increase to 40% at 30w 12 n that will be 20%
Still at 20%. 8 am TWO is out already.
1035. P451
For what it's worth: NAM: (not the newest run)



1036. P451
Antilles radar ending 11z

1037. P451
Bermuda Radar ending 11z



1038. emcf30
Ngp showing low off Jax
Good early morning.Wow Dora has really been torn apart this morning.The cooler waters has taken a toll on her.Wonder what our wave is gonna do today?
The spin with the wave is actually around 12N/55W , vorticity map supports this also.
Our local news said the wave is movimg NW.I thought it was moving WNW.
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Our local news said the wave is movimg NW.I thought it was moving WNW.


It is moving WNW mrsalagranny.

To show you how to figure this, the current steering layers mean shows a basic westerly flow east of the Lesser Antilles. There is a weakness in the subtropical ridge north of the Bahamas. The wave will naturally try to escape through the weakness, however the steering flow east of the Islands is a little stronger from east to west...the mean of the 2 yield a WNW motion

1044. emcf30
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Our local news said the wave is movimg NW.I thought it was moving WNW.

NHC has it moving W-NW @ 15 -20 mph. If you look at the loop, the convection is firing off on the North side which kinda makes it look like it is moving NW but the entire wave still moving W-NW
If its at 12n 55 west, then its either headed for the carrib, or wnw to nw it ride over the greater antilles with no chance of dev.And at 20 mph at 285 degrees.Well that would put this in the carrib in less than 24 hrs.And the old john Hope rule is;if it does NOT FORM BEFORE THE ISLANDS THEN IT WANT TILL IT GETS TO the western Carrib.then its probably a C/a event.Maybe thats why the other models don't do anything with this.They feel its going to rain itself out over the mountains of the greater antilles, or track into C/A.jMHO.have a nice day.
From yesterday. Maybe going in Sunday.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 21 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-051

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL INVEST AT 24/1800Z NEAR 21.0N 69.0W.
Hi,

I've done a summary of the time lapses of our amazing supercells closse to the border of Austria and Slovenia, Europe, on 23rd of June 2011.

I only know supercells like this as I was chasing in the United States... well, enjoy it ;) - I do...

Quoting emcf30:

NHC has it moving W-NW @ 15 -20 mph. If you look at the loop, the convection is firing off on the North side which kinda makes it look like it is moving NW but the entire wave still moving W-NW
Thank you sweetie.I thought thats what the NHC said.My goodness we are getting a good tropical rain here in Semmes Ala.They say more is coming.I am sending some to Texas as we speak.
Port Canaveral will be rockin' today with 1,800 goodbye parties. Exit interview begin this morning at NASA and by noon things will be getting in full swing.
Stay safe on the roads guys, there will be plenty of cabs there.


central atl alot of shower activity
Matthias,

Neat time lapse! Hadn't see it like that before.
Good Morning. Waiting on the 8:00 am % for the wave approaching the Antilles currently at 20% (as of the 2:00 am Outlook). If you look at the loops and CIMSS charts this am, it is currently headed towards some moderate sheer, and, the westerlies flow just inside the Caribbean basin once it passes the lesser antilles, so I would not expect the % to up for the time being.
Good morning, 90L:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107221237
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011072106, , BEST, 0, 118N, 468W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072112, , BEST, 0, 124N, 483W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072118, , BEST, 0, 128N, 498W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072200, , BEST, 0, 132N, 514W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 40, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2011072206, , BEST, 0, 135N, 531W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 225, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 90, 2011072212, , BEST, 0, 138N, 547W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 175, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Should see some more cooling in the Equatorial Pacific Nino region beginning of the month of Aug.

1056. emcf30
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Thank you sweetie.I thought thats what the NHC said.My goodness we are getting a good tropical rain here in Semmes Ala.They say more is coming.I am sending some to Texas as we speak.


I am sure the Texans on here would love that.
What happened to global warming?

By Bullitt Marquez, AP

A soldier walks towards an abandoned house as Mt. Pinatubo spews ash during its eruption in the Philippines in this June 19, 1991, file photo. Natural aerosols from particular 'colossal' volcanic eruptions have significantly cooled the global climate at times, including following Pinatubo.

By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

Updated: 07/21/2011 2:16pm

What happened to global warming?

This week's heat wave notwithstanding, scientists have been puzzled as to why global warming has occurred at a slower pace since 1998, following decades of increasing temperatures.

A new study out today in the journal Science reports the cause could be an increase in the amount of aerosols-aatiny, airborne solid and liquid particles from both natural and man-made sources-aahigh up in the stratosphere.

In the study, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other agencies found that an increase in stratospheric aerosols decreased the global warming that would have otherwise occurred by 25 percent since 1998.

"There was less warming than you would have had without the aerosols," says study co-author John Daniel of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

Sea salt, dust and volcanic ash are three common types of natural aerosols; these airborne particles can also come from man-made sources from the burning of fossil fuels.

"Most of the global warming of the past half-century has been driven by continuing increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases," the study reports, "but natural aerosols from particular 'colossal' volcanic eruptions have significantly cooled the global climate at times, including for example the 'year without a summer' experienced after the eruption of the Tambora volcano in 1815 and notable cooling after the Pinatubo eruption in 1991."

Daniel added that he wouldn't have thought that the aerosols would still be a factor now, this long after the 1991 volcanic eruption of Pinatubo.

The stratospheric aerosol increase could also be due in part to human emissions of sulfur precursors (such as sulfur dioxide from burning coal), the authors point out in the study.

This study follows another study earlier this month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which found that China doubled its coal consumption from the years 2003 to 2007, leading to a huge increase in sulfur emissions that may have had a cooling effect on the planet. The researchers in that study suggested that this cooling effect may have counteracted ongoing warming due to increased carbon dioxide concentrations, permitting natural forces to predominate the planet's temperature.

Will there be a point in the future at which the impact of aerosols on global temperatures will be less of a factor than it is now?

"What happens in the future depends on the cause of the aerosols," says Daniel. "If it's volcanic, it depends on what volcanoes do. If its sulfur, it depends on what our pollution is."

The paper does not address how man-made versus natural activities contribute to aerosol creation, which they say is a question to be explored in further studies.

As for aerosols' impact on climate models used to estimate future global warming, according to the study, "climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the … global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase."

Copyright 2011 USATODAY.com
Good Morning.
Has 90L been designated yet?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Good morning, 90L:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201107221212
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2011, DB, O, 2011072212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902011
AL, 90, 2011072212, , BEST, 0, 138N, 546W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,



YAY we now have 90L
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning.
Has 90L been designated yet?



look at post 1054 and you find out
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Waiting on the 8:00 am % for the wave approaching the Antilles currently at 20% (as of the 2:00 am Outlook). If you look at the loops and CIMSS charts this am, it is currently headed towards some moderate sheer, and, the westerlies flow just inside the Caribbean basin once it passes the lesser antilles, so I would not expect the % to up for the time being.


Looks like it's sticking on 20. I scurried off to look at the outlook as well as soon as I got on here.
TDBret (line-segments on the left) appears to have lost track (single dots of 99L)
of TSCindy (line-segments on the right)
Bret's heading toward Kerry,Ireland and Cindy's heading toward Cherbourg,France

The shortest distance between two single-dots to the near-left of the Cindy line-segments represents the 3hours between ATCF'sTDnumbering and NHC'sTSnaming.
Otherwise, 6hours between dots.
Bret's max.sus.wind was between 55k/h(34.2mph) and 35mph(56.3k/h)
minus its average travel speed of 19.5mph(31.4k/h)
for a spin of 14.7to15.5mph(23.6to24.9k/h)
Cindy's max.sus.wind was between 50mph(80.5k/h) and 85k/h(52.8mph)
minus its average travel speed of 26.7mph(43.9k/h),
for a spin of 23.3to26.1mph(36.6to41.1k/h)

Copy&paste 33.1n71.7w-33.8n70.6w, 33.8n70.6w-34.2n69.7w, 34.2n69.7w-35.6n68.1w, 35.6n68.1w-36.7n66.5w, bda, yyt, 32.7n68.3w, 32.9n67.4w, 33.2n66.5w, 33.4n65.5w, 33.2n63.8w, 33.1n61.8w, 33.1n59.5w, 33.3n56.9w, 34.5n54.7w, 35.2n53.8w, 36.3n51.6w, 38.3n49.1w-40.3n47.3w, 40.3n47.3w-42.3n45.0w, 42.3n45.0w-43.5n42.8w, 43.5n42.8w-44.5n39.9w GreatCircleMapper for more info.
Thanks Taz.
1061. whepton3 8:24 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

I have been having problems with my computer for about a week and have problems getting on some sites as well as this one (no link buttons etc) so I have not been able to access the 8:00 am update unless they are almost one 1/2 hour behind.....
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1061. whepton3 8:24 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

I have been having problems with my computer for about a week and have problems getting on some sites as well as this one (no link buttons etc) so I have not been able to access the 8:00 am update unless they are almost one 1/2 hour behind.....


Actually, the 8am TWO was about 7:15 this morning. Nothing exciting, no change whatsoever.
1065. NICycloneChaser 8:30 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

Thanks......I am also missing the "quote' button for this Blog........ :)
Quoting mikatnight:
What happened to global warming?

By Bullitt Marquez, AP

A soldier walks towards an abandoned house as Mt. Pinatubo spews ash during its eruption in the Philippines in this June 19, 1991, file photo. Natural aerosols from particular 'colossal' volcanic eruptions have significantly cooled the global climate at times, including following Pinatubo.

By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

Updated: 07/21/2011 2:16pm

What happened to global warming?

This week's heat wave notwithstanding, scientists have been puzzled as to why global warming has occurred at a slower pace since 1998, following decades of increasing temperatures.

A new study out today in the journal Science reports the cause could be an increase in the amount of aerosols-aatiny, airborne solid and liquid particles from both natural and man-made sources-aahigh up in the stratosphere.

In the study, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and other agencies found that an increase in stratospheric aerosols decreased the global warming that would have otherwise occurred by 25 percent since 1998.

"There was less warming than you would have had without the aerosols," says study co-author John Daniel of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.

Sea salt, dust and volcanic ash are three common types of natural aerosols; these airborne particles can also come from man-made sources from the burning of fossil fuels.

"Most of the global warming of the past half-century has been driven by continuing increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases," the study reports, "but natural aerosols from particular 'colossal' volcanic eruptions have significantly cooled the global climate at times, including for example the 'year without a summer' experienced after the eruption of the Tambora volcano in 1815 and notable cooling after the Pinatubo eruption in 1991."

Daniel added that he wouldn't have thought that the aerosols would still be a factor now, this long after the 1991 volcanic eruption of Pinatubo.

The stratospheric aerosol increase could also be due in part to human emissions of sulfur precursors (such as sulfur dioxide from burning coal), the authors point out in the study.

This study follows another study earlier this month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, which found that China doubled its coal consumption from the years 2003 to 2007, leading to a huge increase in sulfur emissions that may have had a cooling effect on the planet. The researchers in that study suggested that this cooling effect may have counteracted ongoing warming due to increased carbon dioxide concentrations, permitting natural forces to predominate the planet's temperature.

Will there be a point in the future at which the impact of aerosols on global temperatures will be less of a factor than it is now?

"What happens in the future depends on the cause of the aerosols," says Daniel. "If it's volcanic, it depends on what volcanoes do. If its sulfur, it depends on what our pollution is."

The paper does not address how man-made versus natural activities contribute to aerosol creation, which they say is a question to be explored in further studies.

As for aerosols' impact on climate models used to estimate future global warming, according to the study, "climate model projections neglecting these changes would continue to overestimate the … global warming in coming decades if these aerosols remain present at current values or increase."

Copyright 2011 USATODAY.com



A lot of disinformation, here. Sulfur and particulate pollution from developing economies, like China, may well have a cooling effect. These countries don't have strict clean air laws like those in the west. But large volcanic eruptions only cool the planet for a couple of years. In the year following Pinatubo's eruption, global temperature decreased by 0.5 degrees C. The following year was cooler by 0.2 degrees C.

As to global warming occurring at a slower pace since 1998, that is simply not borne out by the facts:-


With respect to the 1951-80 average (NASA GISS)

91 0.35C warmer
92 0.13
93 0.13
94 0.23
95 0.37
96 0.29
97 0.39
98 0.56
99 0.32
00 0.33 Average for the decade 0.31C warmer than the 1951-80 average.


01 0.47
02 0.56
03 0.55
04 0.48
05 0.63
06 0.55
07 0.58
08 0.44
09 0.58
10 0.63 Average for the decade 0.55C warmer than the 1951-80 average


1064. weathermanwannabe 12:28 PM GMT on July 22, 2011

That's no good. Here in S. FL the wave is getting some play with the local guys. Started talking about it this morning.

They of course don't want to freak anyone out... so at this point it's just a "rainmaker" for middle of next week. Guess they're in wait-n-see like the rest of us. Or maybe they're in wait-half-an-hour and see mode... like some of us. That was a bad joke at your computer's expense... sorry.
Morning Lows????
Boston 81
Philadelphia 82
Washington Reagan 83
NYC Central Park 84
Newark 86
Baltimore Inner Harbor 88
1071. Jax82
My AC unit stopped working last night, just in time for a nice hot day today! It's like it knew it was going to work hard today and it just called in sick. Boo.
we have invest 90 L!!!
1066 & 1068:

That's why I post this stuff...for the feedback. Glad everyone's paying attention!
1069. whepton3 8:35 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

I had a great discussion with Levi a few nights ago with regard to models vs. human forcasting. I think the consensus was that the models are the best thing that we have and that forecasters, including NHC, would be foolish to ignore the model guidance (unless there is clearly some kind of glaring error). Point being that I am not too hyped on this system at the moment but some of the models suggest that it may approach south florida, in some form or fashion, in the long term. As such, we have been put on notice by the "model oracles" so we do have to keep an eye on it.
1076. HCW
90L models from the NHC Have a great day :)

I am a bit confused.What will steer the wave to the West and what will pull it more to NW?aybe I am saying that wrong as well.I guess I am wondering will it get in the Caribbean or will it go up the SE coast and what would have to be the setup of each scenario?Sorry I am just trying to learn.TIA
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


This wave is far from becoming anything to get to concerned about. The overall environment that is ahead is not to friendly to say the least as it may run into possible land interaction and a TUTT like feature.


Looks pretty ominous now, the ridge is looking like it will hold up and push that one into the east coast. Will be watching it closely.
Quoting hurricane23:


This wave is far from becoming anything to get to concerned about. The overall environment that is ahead is not to friendly to say the least as it may run into possible land interaction and a TUTT like feature.




Just posting the models. Most likely just a rain maker, but as always conditions can and will change.
Related to 1057 & 1068:

Effect of small volcanoes

Includes Soufrière Hills in Montserrat, which has been active since 1995. To me it reads that our temperatures would be a lot worse if it weren't for the volcanic sulfur. Clearly this isn't a 'cure' for climate change, but it is an ameliorating factor. And we can use all of those we can get.
I see that there is another area making some noice near 30W. What about that one?
Quoting yonzabam:



A lot of disinformation, here. Sulfur and particulate pollution from developing economies, like China, may well have a cooling effect. These countries don't have strict clean air laws like those in the west. But large volcanic eruptions only cool the planet for a couple of years. In the year following Pinatubo's eruption, global temperature decreased by 0.5 degrees C. The following year was cooler by 0.2 degrees C.

That is indeed a poorly-written article that misstates a few key points--and has a thoroughly misleading headline.

The most glaring to me: "The researchers in [the China sulfur emissions] study suggested that this cooling effect may have counteracted ongoing warming due to increased carbon dioxide concentrations, permitting natural forces to predominate the planet's temperature." That's not at all what they said; rather, they concluded that while the planet continued to warm during the time of Chinese sulfur emissions due to increased concentrations of CO2, it would have warmed at a much more rapid rate had those sulfur emissions been absent.

Ah, sloppy reportage. What are ya gonna do? ;-)
749

WHXX01 KWBC 221226

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1226 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110722 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110722 0600 110722 1800 110723 0600 110723 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 53.1W 14.5N 56.2W 15.4N 59.4W 16.6N 62.8W

BAMD 13.5N 53.1W 14.4N 56.4W 15.3N 59.5W 16.0N 62.4W

BAMM 13.5N 53.1W 14.4N 56.3W 15.1N 59.5W 15.8N 62.7W

LBAR 13.5N 53.1W 14.2N 56.3W 15.1N 59.9W 15.9N 63.5W

SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS

DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 29KTS 35KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110724 0600 110725 0600 110726 0600 110727 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.9N 66.2W 20.5N 72.6W 22.4N 76.7W 24.1N 78.7W

BAMD 16.7N 65.1W 18.4N 69.7W 20.4N 72.4W 22.5N 74.3W

BAMM 16.7N 65.9W 18.7N 71.5W 20.2N 75.4W 21.4N 78.2W

LBAR 16.6N 66.8W 17.8N 72.1W 19.2N 76.3W .0N .0W

SHIP 42KTS 54KTS 61KTS 64KTS

DSHP 42KTS 39KTS 36KTS 29KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 53.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 12.8N LONM12 = 49.8W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 46.8W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
the northern extent of the tw is moving so fast west doubt this one turns north before florida
Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
90L.INVEST
03L.CINDY
02L.BRET

East Pacific
04E.DORA

Central Pacific

West Pacific
93W.INVEST
08W.MA-ON

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemispher
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
90L GHCC Loop
Seems like there is a lot of popcorn thunderstorms with that wave.If all that moisture were to consolidate would I be correct in saying that would be one heck of a invest?
Thanks Adrian pretty much what i see also.Guess the thats not what the younguns on here wanted to hear lol.
Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:
Morning Lows????
Boston 81
Philadelphia 82
Washington Reagan 83
NYC Central Park 84
Newark 86
Baltimore Inner Harbor 88


And it's already 91 here in baltimore and it's not even 9am EDT yet...
Not looking forward to lunch... I have to go buy some... then drive 3 hours to the beach.
Quoting mrsalagranny:
I am a bit confused.What will steer the wave to the West and what will pull it more to NW?aybe I am saying that wrong as well.I guess I am wondering will it get in the Caribbean or will it go up the SE coast and what would have to be the setup of each scenario?Sorry I am just trying to learn.TIA


There's a strong ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic, called the Bermuda/Azores high. It's there every year. Tropical storms can't break through it, so are steered to the west.

Until recently, there was an area of low pressure to the west of the high, known as a 'trough', which Bret and Cindy moved through, but it seems that feature will disappear.

Usually, the Bermuda/Azores high doesn't go all the way to the US coast, so hurricanes are 'sucked' away to the North Atlantic where they peter out. These are known as 'fish storms' on here, because they don't make landfall.

This year, it looks as if the Bermuda/Azores high may be broader than usual, so storms may be steered all the way to the east coast/Gulf.
can someone explain to me why the models are so south on it? its moving wnw and its going to move through the northern islands and north of puerto rico?
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Thanks Adrian pretty much what i see also.Guess the thats not what the younguns on here wanted to hear lol.


Updated 12z Bams run this through the caribbean if it can avoid land it maybe a player down the road if it makes it into the gulf.
1095. ncstorm
Good Morning, we now have Invest 90L..I just hope everyone is prepare this season..I still say having a tropical system with the record breaking heat wave will be terrible..losing power when you have dew points over 80 will put the aftermath of a hurricane on a whole 'nother level..so if anything, buy extra tanks of gas before the hurricane hits because your car might be the only Air Conditioning you may have..

GFS predicting a storm off of NC..(take it with a grain of salt)



REVISED

101

WHXX01 KWBC 221237

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1237 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110722 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

110722 1200 110723 0000 110723 1200 110724 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.8N 54.7W 14.7N 57.8W 15.5N 61.3W 16.7N 64.8W

BAMD 13.8N 54.7W 14.7N 57.9W 15.5N 60.8W 16.2N 63.5W

BAMM 13.8N 54.7W 14.5N 57.9W 15.1N 61.2W 15.9N 64.5W

LBAR 13.8N 54.7W 14.4N 58.0W 15.1N 61.6W 15.7N 65.0W

SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 35KTS

DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 35KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

110724 1200 110725 1200 110726 1200 110727 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 68.5W 19.8N 75.4W 21.1N 80.8W 22.3N 85.0W

BAMD 16.8N 66.0W 18.3N 70.6W 19.8N 73.9W 21.3N 76.7W

BAMM 16.7N 67.8W 18.3N 73.6W 19.5N 78.3W 20.5N 82.7W

LBAR 16.2N 68.0W 17.9N 72.9W 20.7N 75.4W 24.6N 80.3W

SHIP 43KTS 54KTS 63KTS 69KTS

DSHP 43KTS 44KTS 56KTS 62KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 54.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 51.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 48.3W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


Woke up, see we have 90L and a different model consensus? Neighbor was talking already about it. I'm in S FL. I tried explaining to him that its way to far out and probably will change anyways. Is there anything out there that can back this up? Is it just early models that will deviate or is there some good backing to think this will go more Westerly as models are showing this morning?
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Seems like there is a lot of popcorn thunderstorms with that wave.If all that moisture were to consolidate would I be correct in saying that would be one heck of a invest?


Always that possibility, but notice there is currently shear blowing off the tops of those popcorn thunderstorms. Additionally looks like a lot of interaction with the islands which would lesson development.
INV/90L/XX
Quoting yonzabam:


There's a strong ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic, called the Bermuda/Azores high. It's there every year. Tropical storms can't break through it, so are steered to the west.

Until recently, there was an area of low pressure to the west of the high, known as a 'trough', which Bret and Cindy moved through, but it seems that feature will disappear.

Usually, the Bermuda/Azores high doesn't go all the way to the US coast, so hurricanes are 'sucked' away to the North Atlantic where they peter out. These are known as 'fish storms' on here, because they don't make landfall.

This year, it looks as if the Bermuda/Azores high may be broader than usual, so storms may be steered all the way to the east coast/Gulf.
Got it.Thanks sweetie for taking the time to explain it to me and so detailed in your explanation.I am trying to understand all of this.All I know is that if someone says its in the GOM I am gonna run.LOL....Thanks again.
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Woke up, see we have 90L and a different model consensus? Neighbor was talking already about it. I'm in S FL. I tried explaining to him that its way to far out and probably will change anyways. Is there anything out there that can back this up? Is it just early models that will deviate or is there some good backing to think this will go more Westerly as models are showing this morning?

HPC has that wave over Florida in 3 days.
1095. ncstorm 8:58 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

And we are nowhere near the heart of the season still several weeks away........I just e-mailed some friends and family in South Florida and told them to go ahead and get supplies (and extra water for the dogs) for the SEASON just in case as their usual waits for power again after a storm can sometimes be from 5-15 days dependening on the circumstances.

Folks really need to go ahead and stock up now just in case cause (and I have been caught in them a few times because I waited too long) you don't want to be at Home Depot for 6 hours in line waiting to get the left-over plywood....
I was telling yesterday that i was seeing this Tropical Wave taking a more southerly track and so that it will enter the Caribbean Sea. Also i was pointing out last night that was seeing a circulation near 13n and 52w and the data today confirmed that.
Quoting BaltOCane:


And it's already 91 here in baltimore and it's not even 9am EDT yet...
Not looking forward to lunch... I have to go buy some... then drive 3 hours to the beach.


9 a.m.
94 in Baltimore
95 in Newark, NJ
Agreed Adrian.Althoughif it does go through the carrib it just might be like last year, steered towards CA.These fast moving weak systems this time of the year tend to go straight through the carrib into CA.Emily and quite a few other july systems have done this.I seem to also remember the models early on would always have a north bias till things became more obvious.
Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:


9 a.m.
94 in Baltimore
95 in Newark, NJ


Totally unnecessary for it to be this hot.
1075. weathermanwannabe 12:42 PM GMT on July 22, 2011

These models on 90L seem to suggest it's headed this way (to S. FL)... as to what it is when it gets here, who knows? Just reading what everyone is saying, it seems to be Sunday before we have a real idea as to what 90L ends up as if it heads towards FL.
P.S.: I'll be in Ocean City, MD this next week, so if this thing spins up the east coast, I'm gonna be pretty upset.
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Woke up, see we have 90L and a different model consensus? Neighbor was talking already about it. I'm in S FL. I tried explaining to him that its way to far out and probably will change anyways. Is there anything out there that can back this up? Is it just early models that will deviate or is there some good backing to think this will go more Westerly as models are showing this morning?



I wouldn't put to much stock in any model runs at this point. Things that you could derive from the models at this point.

1. There is a possibility of a tropical cyclone developing. Little consistency yet however, it doesn't mean it won't develop, look at Bret & Cindy.
2. There is also a possibility that a trough will be on the east coast at that time. This trough may or may not be capable of pulling this storm up and out of the Caribbean and may be strong enough to fully re-curve the storm.

There could be a lot of dynamics at play here, maybe not if we're just dealing with a ridge. I typically will wait until there is a duck in the pond because depending on where the low forms on the wave axis, it could have HUGE implications.
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Got it.Thanks sweetie for taking the time to explain it to me and so detailed in your explanation.I am trying to understand all of this.All I know is that if someone says its in the GOM I am gonna run.LOL....Thanks again.

When looking at weather maps showing isobars, look for 1016mb, this is the steering level.


Click for loop
Good morning, folks!

Looks like Dora went POOF overnight and we now have 90L

In non-tropical weather, the GFS is showing the upper midwest returning to the sauna in about a week.
1112. ncstorm
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1095. ncstorm 8:58 AM EDT on July 22, 2011

And we are nowhere near the heart of the season still several weeks away........I just e-mailed some friends and family in South Florida and told them to go ahead and get supplies (and extra water for the dogs) for the SEASON just in case as their usual waits for power again after a storm can sometimes be from 5-15 days dependening on the circumstances.

Folks really need to go ahead and stock up now just in case cause (and I have been caught in them a few times because I waited too long) you don't want to be at Home Depot for 6 hours in line waiting to get the left-over plywood....


exactly..nothing will be pretty waiting in line for basic items in record breaking heat..I will say I have never boarded up except for floyd when they thought that was going to be category 4..any other time, we put duct tape in the form of a X on our windows to keep them from shattering..
Quoting emcf30:


I am sure the Texans on here would love that.


Please send some of that out here to Texas. Its so dry where I live (30 miles east of Ciudad Acuna, MX) that the fish in our fast disappearing creek have ticks!
We need a nice wet tropical system to ride up the Rio Grande and dump copious amounts of rain on us. Hard to wish for tropical systems but that is exactly what we need here in SW Texas. Come on Invest 90L!
1114. ncstorm
IMO 90l will not develope into anything. Will probally just stay an open wave and move harmlessly through the Carib. and into CA. The weather ahead of it,the dry air and SAL will keep it at bay. Have patience people you will have plenty to watch and pontificate as the season progresses. Anyone who lives in S Fla remember TS Bonnie from last year,what a dud. Hope we get a few of those this year a TS with no pop works for me.... Just keep Cantore away from here.. LOL
I'd like to see what the bigger models do with 90L (GFDL, HWRF & TCVN). BAMM'S were not so good with Bret early on.
1117. ncstorm
What is the blow-up just a little SE of 90L ? TIA to anyone that answers.
Quoting AussieStorm:

When looking at weather maps showing isobars, look for 1016mb, this is the steering level.


Click for loop
Oh wow that helps alot thank you Aussie.You guys and gals are the greatest.See I learned something this morning.Great teachers you all are.Good to see you Aussie.Now I am gonna sit back and learn some more.Have a Bleesed Day everyone.
1120. ncstorm
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I'd like to see what the bigger models do with 90L (GFDL, HWRF & TCVN). BAMM'S were not so good with Bret early on.


they had it going into the GOM..
1121. HCW
Quoting weaverwxman:
IMO 90l will not develope into anything. Will probally just stay an open wave and move harmlessly through the Carib. and into CA. The weather ahead of it,the dry air and SAL will keep it at bay. Have patience people you will have plenty to watch and pontificate as the season progresses. Anyone who lives in S Fla remember TS Bonnie from last year,what a dud. Hope we get a few of those this year a TS with no pop works for me.... Just keep Cantore away from here.. LOL


Cantore is the Storm Shield so your safe when he shows up
Quoting weaverwxman:
IMO 90l will not develope into anything. Will probally just stay an open wave and move harmlessly through the Carib. and into CA. The weather ahead of it,the dry air and SAL will keep it at bay. Have patience people you will have plenty to watch and pontificate as the season progresses. Anyone who lives in S Fla remember TS Bonnie from last year,what a dud. Hope we get a few of those this year a TS with no pop works for me.... Just keep Cantore away from here.. LOL

The next wave is the one to watch IMO, ECMWF has it in the SE carib in 6 days.
Guys for now exclude the BAM models remember they showed bret in the GOMEX. Wait for the CMC, UKMET , GFDL and HWRF NOGAPS those are the important ones. im still going with my track wnw into the northern islands and afterwards just north of puerto rico. 90L kinda reminds me of dolly in 08. not what it looks like but kinda similar track
1125. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Quoting DestinJeff:
post 1041 is jacking up the view I think. Can't get to the minus button to hide it.

All fine here Mate!
Climo is always a good guide. While not out of the question, the chances of it making FL in July are on the low side.

I should clarify to FL east coast. NFL gulf coast is a risk in July.


wow!! Invest 90
Wind: 25 MPH — Location: 13.8 54.7W — Movement: W
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.
we have three storms at ones time TD BRET, TS CINDY and invest 90L
mmmmm what's this the ECMWF picking up for next weekend???
Saturday July 30.

Sunday July 31.
invest 90L NEED TO BE WATCH IF IT HITS VERY WARM WATER TEMP AROUND 88F WATCH OUT!!
Good morning, simplifying matters:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM CINDY...LOCATED ABOUT 805 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ADVISORIES ARE ALSO BEING ISSUED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 320 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
invest 90L NEED TO BE WATCH IF IT HITS VERY WARM WATER TEMP AROUND 88F WATCH OUT!!

Friday 22nd July

Sunday 24th July.
1135. Jax82
I predict 90L will make landfall in West Palm Beach at 3:45pm on July 28th as a small to moderate thunderstorm. Windshield wipers may have to be turned on and umbrellas may have to be opened. Of course, my prediction is about as likely as the models right now. :-)
NCEP/ETA Model Forecasts



Link
1112 ncstorm "...except for floyd when they thought that was going to be category 4...we put duct tape in the form of a X on our windows to keep them from shattering."

Could nail a horseshoe above your doorway. Works just as well at preventing windows from shattering.
Duct tape won't prevent a blow out... and will hold only a small fraction of the pieces caused by a strike, unless ya totally cut off your view of the outside world.
1140. 7544
morning we have 90l now some models take it south of fla but should end up further north as the bam could be right . imo its moving preety fast tho soit does not have a lot of time unless it slows down

looks like we also may get 91l soon these two would have to be watch jason will be very busy soon tracking have a good day
IMO 90L probably wont develop.
Quoting jasonweatherman2011:
invest 90L NEED TO BE WATCH IF IT HITS VERY WARM WATER TEMP AROUND 88F WATCH OUT!!


Any early thougths about pre 91L near 30W.?
LinkLoop



no floater on 90L yet
1144. lucreto
Quoting Jax82:
I predict 90L will make landfall in West Palm Beach at 3:45pm on July 28th as a small to moderate thunderstorm. Windshield wipers may have to be turned on and umbrellas may have to be opened. Of course, my prediction is about as likely as the models right now. :-)


What a doomcaster
Quoting tatoprweather:


Any early thougths about pre 91L near 30W.?

IMO, this is the Twave that needs to be watched. 90L wont amount to much unless it fires up soon.
We should see some moderate organization of this system while moving over the Bahamas. Whether or not it will make it to a depression before interaction with Fl is iffy.
Quoting tatoprweather:


Any early thougths about pre 91L near 30W.?


This isn't much help:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N26W 11N27W 7N27W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 13N54W 9N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

Shear Map Below


850 Vorticity
1148. 7544
ngps has it going over fla and looks what behind it .Link
It looks like 90L is paving the way for CV season.
Almost here..

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
We should see some moderate organization of this system while moving over the Bahamas. Whether or not it will make it to a depression before interaction with Fl is iffy.


It doesn't look like it will get in the Bahamas, looks like according to the majority of the models it will die over Hispaniola.
Quoting 7544:
ngps has it going over fla and looks what behind it .Link


System to NE of PR in 144hrs.
1156. ncstorm
Accuweather..

The strong tropical wave that rolled off of the African coast to start the week will face difficulties developing into the weekend due to the prevailing high pressure to the north.

Even so, the wave may produce a pulse of showers and thunderstorms over the Antilles this weekend. The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico could be affected by localized downpours Saturday. Later in the weekend, the activity could affect Hispaniola.

"There may be a better chance of tropical development over the southwestern Caribbean into the Eastern Pacific, west of Panama, during the first part of next week," Kottlowski said.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Dora is packing a punch off the coast of southwestern Mexico. Dora will impact coastal/resort communities in the region with high winds and heavy surf. Rogue waves may propagate outward hundreds of miles from the center of this powerful hurricane.

There is also a slight chance of a slow-brewing, weak tropical system coming out of a zone of showers and thunderstorms next week in the vicinity of the Carolina coast. A front will stall in this area. However, it again seems wind shear would prevent explosive development.

We would like to remind folks that it is still very early in the tropical season, and the traditional favored time for multiple, powerful hurricanes in the Atlantic lies ahead in August and September.

well the wave at 30 west did look really good but now the sal is sucking up all the convection from this wave...it looks like the same situation with the first wave..so another one bites the dust...its starting to look like the sal will rule over the cv season 2011...
1158. ncstorm


HPC Low Pressures Map..shows the tropical wave over S Fl in 7 days
90l's biggest problem oraginizing looks like itll be interaction with land,it needs to choose to go north or south of pr,hispainola and cuba,south bound tc has the best chance of development and making it into the gom
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO 90L probably wont develop.


I agree 100%, way too much land interaction with the islands. This will be nothing more than a gusty/showery setup for those in its path. Isn't that what we want, minimal impact, helpful rainfall? Why are some on here upset that there will be no development as it approaches populated areas?
Where's the dry air that folks have been saying would stop 90L from developing?
Looking at the photos, everything somewhat nearby in front of or immediately to the side of its direction of travel has at least partial cloud cover with only short breaks of clear air.
1163. Grothar
1165. Levi32
Quoting Chucktown:


I agree 100%, way too much land interaction with the islands. This will be nothing more than a gusty/showery setup for those in its path. Isn't that what we want, minimal impact, helpful rainfall? Why are some on here upset that there will be no development as it approaches populated areas?


Rainfall would be great. However, it should still be watched for potential development in close, as the Caribbean islands are never a 100% stop on these systems. We have seen more than our fair share that transverse just about every island in the chain and still develop. That said, overall chances don't look all that great for now.
Yea Cloud Storm Top Lenny.Fizziling away like Pat and I's po-boys lol.So according to you unless its homebrew Your home town of No.Well Cloud Top see you at Pat O's after the games this year.
Quoting aspectre:
Dumb question but where the heck is the dry air that folks have been saying would stop 90L from developing?
Looking at the photos, everything nearby in front of its direction of travel has at least partial cloud cover with only short breaks of clear air.

Dry air......

Click for loop
Quoting BoyntonBeachFL:


9 a.m.
94 in Baltimore
95 in Newark, NJ
We are going for 104 in NJ (Newark)
1169. 7544
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, July 22nd, with Video


thanks levi32 great info time to kkep close watch on these buggers
Quoting aspectre:
Where's the dry air that folks have been saying would stop 90L from developing?
Looking at the photos, everything somewhat nearby in front of or immediately to the side of its direction of travel has at least partial cloud cover with only short breaks of clear air.


Dark areas represent dry air, moving along with the wave..

Morning everybody...

I see our wave has been raised to 20%. I that a TUTT I see to its NW??
Quoting Levi32:


Rainfall would be great. However, it should still be watched for potential development in close, as the Caribbean islands are never a 100% stop on these systems. We have seen more than our fair share that transverse just about every island in the chain and still develop. That said, overall chances don't look all that great for now.


true and if we can recall tropical storm fay developed right before the greater Antilles and maintained its intensity and even intensified
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It doesn't look like it will get in the Bahamas, looks like according to the majority of the models it will die over Hispaniola.
What do you mean "die?" You can lose a circulation, but a plume of moisture never just disappears.
Quoting Levi32:


Rainfall would be great. However, it should still be watched for potential development in close, as the Caribbean islands are never a 100% stop on these systems. We have seen more than our fair share that transverse just about every island in the chain and still develop. That said, overall chances don't look all that great for now.


Agreed that we still have to watch it, but even it closes off and becomes a depression or weak tropical storm, that doesn't change the sensible weather that the system produces. It doesn't know that it's a depression or storm. It will still produce beneficial rains and some gusty conditions within the squalls.
Good morning, everyone. I see the blog mossik is at it again. I learned that word as a kid growing up. It just seems to fit. No quote box and reading is messed up. Another hot day here.
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


true and if we can recall tropical storm fay developed right before the greater Antilles and maintained its intensity and even intensified

Fay developed over Puerto Rico.
90L has a lot of problems in its way...not only does it has to deal with shear but when it moves over the dominican rep and haiti the mountains will pretty well destroy it...if and thats a big if when it passes near southern fla it has a slim chance 20% of being a weak tropical depression before moving into the SE GOM..i just cant see this amounting to much but a rainmaker for fla and thats always good it keeps you out the oven...
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. I see the blog mossik is at it again. I learned that word as a kid growing up. It just seems to fit. No quote box and reading is messed up. Another hot day here.

Use FireFox and you will have no problems.
Cindy is unbelievably still a tropical system, convection ring around the center.

I agree with the land interaction part however, there isn't a closed low yet. The Low could close off anywhere on the trough axis which may or may not include a path over land. Also seen storms thread the needle so it's never 100% imo.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Use FireFox and you will have no problems.


I also use firefox and have no problems.

1183. Levi32
A tropical storm is still more dangerous than a tropical wave, last I checked. They are to be taken with caution, more so than an every-day wave.
1185. skook
Current temp in Brandon Florida. (10:30am)

93.0 °F
Feels Like 118 °F



with a dew point in the low 80's
1186. lucreto
The BAMD shows it traversing the entire length of Hispanola thus reducing developmental possibilities from about 36.8% to 17.5% and creating a wind decay of ~5.2 kts. The BAMD is within a 56% error swath 58% of the time, and therefore when blended with the other models (with the BAMD being weighted at .4) we get a chance of development (to depression status) of 21.45%.
1187. Levi32
ASCAT missed most of the wave, but the winds on the NW side of the axis look unimpressive in terms of turning.

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Fay developed over Puerto Rico.


i would not want to argue however it was designated over pueto rico but when all the analysis was observed here on the blog with the lil bit of resources in terms of a TD it showed all the signs before pueto rico
10 a.m.

Newark NJ 98
Baltimore 97
Philly 94
Boston 94
DC 94
NYC 93
1191. lucreto
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


i would not want to argue however it was designated over pueto rico but when all the analysis was observed here on the blog with the lil bit of resources in terms of a TD it showed all the signs before pueto rico


This is no Fay, Fay was the most impressive "invest" I have ever seen, it was clearly a moderate tropical storm however, the NHC due to pressure from the Puerto Rican government (not wanting to deal with the implications of tropical storm watches and warnings), did not classify it until after it had cleared Puerto Rico.
Quite the slug of moisture associated with 90L:

1193. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:
Quite the slug of moisture associated with 90L:



Indeed. It has been deceptively moist during its journey. One wouldn't know it from the lack of convection it has generally had.
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
If its at 12n 55 west, then its either headed for the carrib, or wnw to nw it ride over the greater antilles with no chance of dev.And at 20 mph at 285 degrees.Well that would put this in the carrib in less than 24 hrs.And the old john Hope rule is;if it does NOT FORM BEFORE THE ISLANDS THEN IT WANT TILL IT GETS TO the western Carrib.then its probably a C/a event.Maybe thats why the other models don't do anything with this.They feel its going to rain itself out over the mountains of the greater antilles, or track into C/A.jMHO.have a nice day.
Hey Hrrifan... I don't think even the early predictions we saw for this had any development with it before it got N of PR... will be interesting to see if it survives the trip to get to 20/70....

Levi great Tidbit for today.My goodness the setup is starting to look real scary according to your video.I pray everyone is prepared and ready and most of all safe.
Quoting lucreto:


This is no Fay, Fay was the most impressive "invest" I have ever seen, it was clearly a moderate tropical storm however, the NHC due to pressure from the Puerto Rican government (not wanting to deal with the implications of tropical storm watches and warnings), did not classify it until after it had cleared Puerto Rico.


yep thats what i was saying we all know the nhc is the most conservative agency for atl hurricanes lol its a joke but they seem to play alot of the wait game even when a system may have developed already anyone remember dolly?? 2008
90L may or may not amount to anything significant but a sure sign of the beginning of the viable wave train going into Aug-Sept; I am actually quite surprised by the current model trajectory which is a little early for usual July tracks from that particular location.
I don't think so...

Jacobstown, Wrightstown, New Jersey (PWS)
Clear
101.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 147 °F
1201. Levi32
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Levi great Tidbit for today.My goodness the setup is starting to look real scary according to your video.I pray everyone is prepared and ready and most of all safe.


I do too. What the models show can always change, but we are getting to that time of year when folks are going to start getting threatened.
1202. ncstorm
SHIPS model has 90L at 71 mph at 120 hours..thats almost a hurricane..
Quoting lucreto:
You guys are fools for tracking something with an ~ 20% chance of development this thing will be destroyed by the islands/dry air


how many systems have you been correct about?
baha thats the problem its not going n of pr its going to go south and thats right into the dom rep and haita very mountaionous terrain...will tear the sysytem apart..this will just be a rain maker in general if it makes it to south fla..if this gets in the se gom and is still a tw it could possibly with the warm ssts develop further into a tropical depression and bring some mischief somewhere along the gulfcoast..perhaps texas may get lucky...
Quoting lucreto:
You guys are fools for tracking something with an ~ 20% chance of development this thing will be destroyed by the islands/dry air


Be more subtle next time with your coments Nostradamus........."Ignore list button on"
its over!!!

Post-Tropical Cyclone BRET

11:00 AM AST Fri Jul 22
Location: 37.7°N 64.2°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NE at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
1207. lucreto
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
90L may or may not amount to anything significant but a sure sign of the beginning of the viable wave train going into Aug-Sept; I am actually quite surprised by the current model trajectory which is a little early for usual July tracks from that particular location.


According to my calculations the chances of an above average Cape Verde Season (defined as storms being classified east of the Lesser Antilles) is only at 33.4% so I can not justify your conclusion of the wave train beginning at this point in time.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I don't think so...

Jacobstown, Wrightstown, New Jersey (PWS)
Clear
101.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 147 °F

Rydalmere, Sydney, NSW, Australia Weather
Now
49.1°F rising
Updated at 00:30 EST
Relative Humidity: 91%
Rain since 9am: 28.8mm
I think not...

Jacobstown, Wrightstown, New Jersey (PWS)
Clear
101.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 147 °F
Given the other day lucreto said that he worked with the SHIPS with stormkat proves who he really is - ignore him stat. He's no met.
1211. lucreto
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


how many systems have you been correct about?


I don't make predictions I merely like most meteorologists use probabilities, that being said if you were to say look at 4 occasions in which I claimed something had a 25% chance of occurring it would probably occur on ~1 occasion. That being said I still have made obvious errors in the past that can be clearly seen even with percentages. However, I my forecast percentages are generally reasonable I am able to use a specialized (for tropical cyclogenesis/tracking/intensity) version of the Buffkit software that assists greatly, and although it is still iffy for track I do believe its intensity guidance has proven for the last 2 years to be superior to all the main dynamical models.
Quoting cloudburst2011:
baha thats the problem its not going n of pr its going to go south and thats right into the dom rep and haita very mountaionous terrain...will tear the sysytem apart..this will just be a rain maker in general if it makes it to south fla..if this gets in the se gom and is still a tw it could possibly with the warm ssts develop further into a tropical depression and bring some mischief somewhere along the gulfcoast..perhaps texas may get lucky...

A rain maker in Haiti can still be a killer.
1213. Levi32
I'm off to work. Later all.
Thanks, everyone. I'm not very tech smart and have no idea how to switch to firefox, but going to just 50 worked.

I'm surprised no one yet is worrying and asking if we'll have a cane in the Gulf. I think some of the crowd is falling behind in worrying. *G*
Quoting lucreto:
The BAMD shows it traversing the entire length of Hispanola thus reducing developmental possibilities from about 36.8% to 17.5% and creating a wind decay of ~5.2 kts. The BAMD is within a 56% error swath 58% of the time, and therefore when blended with the other models (with the BAMD being weighted at .4) we get a chance of development (to depression status) of 21.45%.


That's the biggest load of crap I have ever seen...
aussie by no means that im saying this cant be a huge problem for haiti...they will probably get torrential rainfall and mud slides out of this..i agree with you 100% on that..i was talking further down the road as it nears southern fla...
Quoting lucreto:


According to my calculations the chances of an above average Cape Verde Season (defined as storms being classified east of the Lesser Antilles) is only at 33.4% so I can not justify your conclusion of the wave train beginning at this point in time.
If you don't mind, would you please post a copy of your CV with a list of degrees from meteorology schools and selected publications pertinent to tropical meteorology?
Quoting cloudburst2011:
aussie by no means that im saying this cant be a huge problem for haiti...they will probably get torrential rainfall and mud slides out of this..i agree with you 100% on that..i was talking further down the road as it nears southern fla...

True, Haiti will have a problem with any Twave that passes over it. I understand your point. I have a feeling not much will be left of this Twave once it reaches Fla.
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


That's the biggest load of crap I have ever seen...

LOL I have no idea why I find that funny.
1220. lucreto
Quoting atmoaggie:
If you don't mind, would you please post a copy of your CV with a list of degrees from meteorology schools and selected publications pertinent to tropical meteorology?


I got a BS in meteorology/mathematics from the University of Miami in 2003, and got an MS in atmospheric science from CSU in 2006, and have previously worked as an intern at the NWS office in Slidell Louisiana but have returned to CSU in order to pursue my primary interest in atmospheric modeling. (operational forecasting was just not for me)
Quoting DestinJeff:


Try changing your view to the most recent 50 comments


Apparently I already have those posters on the ignore list. I rarely experience blog stretch anymore.
11 a.m.

It hits 100 degrees in Baltimore and Newark NJ!!!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Thanks, everyone. I'm not very tech smart and have no idea how to switch to firefox, but going to just 50 worked.

I'm surprised no one yet is worrying and asking if we'll have a cane in the Gulf. I think some of the crowd is falling behind in worrying. *G*


Free download for the Firefox browser here:


http://www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/new/
Quoting RitaEvac:
I think not...

Jacobstown, Wrightstown, New Jersey (PWS)
Clear
101.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 147 °F


Dew Point: 89 °F not that high!!something not right here
Already a heat index of 105 here in Massachusetts. That was the forecast max today, and its only 11 AM.

Lawrence Municipal Airport
Fair
96 °F
Humidity: 46 %
Wind Speed: W 10 G 16 MPH
Barometer: 29.76" (1007.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 72 °F (22 °C)
Heat Index: 105 °F (41 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Quoting lucreto:
You guys are fools for tracking something with an ~ 20% chance of development this thing will be destroyed by the islands/dry air


You do realize that's for the next 48 hours right? Nearly every storm that gets named is at 20% at one point in there life, unless it spins up really fast. Arlene started at 10%, slowly climbed to 20, and onwards. Bret started at 20%. Cindy started at 20% Just because this one is at 20% for the next 48 hours doesn't mean it can't develop. I do believe though that this one has a rough future if it goes on to traverse every north Caribbean island. But if people were fools for tracking something with a 20% for the next 48 hours, people would be fools for tracking 90% of named storms that come from those said disturbances with 20% chances..
hot water to!! very hot at my house the temp is 98.5F
1228. BDAwx
My PWS here in Bermuda is reading 85.0F with a dewpoint of 80F :O I can't imagine a higher dewpoint with 100 F temps!!!
Hello guys doubt anyone remembers me although I was a somewhat regular poster here a few years back. I have picked up a lot of meteorological knowledge in the past 2 years (halfway now to my meteorology) so I can probably be a little more helpful now. However, I still have a lot to learn, and this site taught me a lot when I still in high school (most of my tropical meteorology knowledge up to this point is grounded in things I read on this site) so hopefully I can still learn a few more things.
Good morning all. We may not be as hot as some of the places now, but we're getting there...

Fair

91 °F

(33 °C)
Humidity: 64 %
Wind Speed: SW 14 G 18 MPH
Barometer: 30.02" (1016.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 77 °F (25 °C)
Heat Index: 104 °F (40 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

I see we have 90L now too...SHIP and ICVN both bring it up to tropical storm status, and SHIPS take it up close to hurricane status. We will need to watch it, even though it does have a lot of land interaction.
In Louisiana we are at 86 degrees with a heat index of 84. I think I'll take back my 'It's hot already' comment I made earlier, all things relative...
Didn't Bret go from 40% to depression in just a couple hours? Those percentages, IMO, are useless to a certain degree.
I just hope it chooses North of the islands, for observation purposes. I think the scenario that Levi paints - generally thru and near the Hebert Box, the kind of favorable conditions there, it would all be very interesting to see. If this little unorganized cluster of showers could show some composure and gain substantial organization thru that area, it would be quite a tell and prognosticator of that being a very dangerous and welcoming area for anything that comes trekking along in a much more composed fashion.
1234. hydrus
168 hour rain accum..
MY POOL WATER TEMP IS 85.6F
http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/W UNIDS_map?station=AKQ&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&typ e=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1311347430 &lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map. y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabe ls=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 weird looking radar ,upper return!
Big old thundershowers rolled through Northern Illinois this morning. Heat wave cancelled at least for a while. Temp 70.
1238. lucreto
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


You do realize that's for the next 48 hours right? Nearly every storm that gets named is at 20% at one point in there life, unless it spins up really fast. Arlene started at 10%, slowly climbed to 20, and onwards. Bret started at 20%. Cindy started at 20% Just because this one is at 20% for the next 48 hours doesn't mean it can't develop. I do believe though that this one has a rough future if it goes on to traverse every north Caribbean island. But if people were fools for tracking something with a 20% for the next 48 hours, people would be fools for tracking 90% of named storms that come from those said disturbances with 20% chances..


My fools comment was somewhat obtuse I will admit and likely earned me a spot on quite a few ignore lists, but my 20 % came from my BAMMs estimate (which I posted on a recent page) not from the NHC.
Quoting BrockBerlin:
Hello guys doubt anyone remembers me although I was a somewhat regular poster here a few years back. I have picked up a lot of meteorological knowledge in the past 2 years (halfway now to my meteorology) so I can probably be a little more helpful now. However, I still have a lot to learn, and this site taught me a lot when I still in high school (most of my tropical meteorology knowledge up to this point is grounded in things I read on this site) so hopefully I can still learn a few more things.


Glad to see you back and hope the studies are going well......I know one thing that you did not learn from this site that you are probably dealing with at the moment; mathematical algorythms and model theory......
1240. hydrus
NOGAPS in 114 hours shows two systems...
It's 100 degrees in Baltimore. At 11:00 AM. (Heat index is 116.)
1242. P451
Quoting ncstorm:
SHIPS model has 90L at 71 mph at 120 hours..thats almost a hurricane..


Given location I would discount that because if the system rides the Greater Antilles obviously it won't attain such strength. Since we don't use the SHIPS for storm track then you usually don't pay much attention to it in these instances.

If it is clear cut that 90L will steam either north or south of the Greater Antilles then I would put some faith into the SHIPS intensity model.

Regardless as with all invests it's too early to trust any model guidance really. Need to give them several runs first.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Glad to see you back and hope the studies are going well......I know one thing that you did not learn from this site that you are probably dealing with at the moment; mathematical algorythms and model theory......


Yeah Differential Equations, Python/Linux, and thermodynamics were not covered to much on this board, however, I did learn some basic fluid mechanics from this board, which helped me a bit in Physics 2 lol.
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's 100 degrees in Baltimore. At 11:00 AM.

TWC says it's up to 101, with a heat index of 117.

That is fother mucking nuts.
Quoting hurricane23:


This wave is far from becoming anything to get to concerned about. The overall environment that is ahead is not to friendly to say the least as it may run into possible land interaction and a TUTT like feature.


That trough is what caught my eye this a.m. I thought I noticed something around 2 a.m., but wasn't giving my full attention. I think the wave would handle the land interaction, but not the trough as well. So this could get interesting....

Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Thanks Adrian pretty much what i see also.Guess the thats not what the younguns on here wanted to hear lol.
Some of the old ones, too... lol
Quoting neutralenso:
Guys for now exclude the BAM models remember they showed bret in the GOMEX. Wait for the CMC, UKMET , GFDL and HWRF NOGAPS those are the important ones. im still going with my track wnw into the northern islands and afterwards just north of puerto rico. 90L kinda reminds me of dolly in 08. not what it looks like but kinda similar track
A word of advice with the statistical models like BAM of various varieties.... performance will vary from storm to storm, so just because they did badly with a trough split last week doesn't mean they won't do ok with a Twave this week. Right now the BAM models are doing a reasonable job based on current setup and steering.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
We should see some moderate organization of this system while moving over the Bahamas. Whether or not it will make it to a depression before interaction with Fl is iffy.
Hey there, Freak! Great to see u in the blog...

Quoting cloudburst2011:
well the wave at 30 west did look really good but now the sal is sucking up all the convection from this wave...it looks like the same situation with the first wave..so another one bites the dust...its starting to look like the sal will rule over the cv season 2011...
Seriously doubt it. SAL is pretty typical, even a bit on the low side for July. ASO typically sees less SAL.

Quoting BrockBerlin:
Hello guys doubt anyone remembers me although I was a somewhat regular poster here a few years back. I have picked up a lot of meteorological knowledge in the past 2 years (halfway now to my meteorology) so I can probably be a little more helpful now. However, I still have a lot to learn, and this site taught me a lot when I still in high school (most of my tropical meteorology knowledge up to this point is grounded in things I read on this site) so hopefully I can still learn a few more things.

If I ever stopped learning new things I'd probably be either dead or in a coma. Good luck on that met degree, and welcome back!
Quoting quakeman55:

TWC says it's up to 101, with a heat index of 117.

That is fother mucking nuts.

Oh yeah...
Link
1248. P451
Quoting RitaEvac:
I don't think so...

Jacobstown, Wrightstown, New Jersey (PWS)
Clear
101.0 °F
Clear
Humidity: 70%
Dew Point: 89 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NW
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 147 °F


Temperature is possibly correct. Dewpoint? No.

In terms of Climatology, 90L will choose one of two paths.



850 Vort Heading right into the Likely hatched area.
Quoting lucreto:
You guys are fools for tracking something with an ~ 20% chance of development this thing will be destroyed by the islands/dry air


Why are we fools for watching something with ~20% chance of development? As a Meteorologist aren't we suppose to look at all these systems regardless of potential. For me, sometimes the systems that don't develop are as interesting as the ones that do. Isn't that your job as a meteorologist?
1252. lucreto
Quoting P451:


Given location I would discount that because if the system rides the Greater Antilles obviously it won't attain such strength. Since we don't use the SHIPS for storm track then you usually don't pay much attention to it in these instances.

If it is clear cut that 90L will steam either north or south of the Greater Antilles then I would put some faith into the SHIPS intensity model.

Regardless as with all invests it's too early to trust any model guidance really. Need to give them several runs first.


Yes as the most knowleagble about the SHIPS on this board, this is correct at this point the SHIPS is still basing its intensity forecast on a track without land interaction. Also the SHIPS is generally ineffictive with undeveloped waves.
very well said lucreto...
I would expect power outages in the NE today, their power grid can't handle heat to well. Blackouts possible, and then people scramble and that's how people die and get killed.
ASCAT showing no LLC . it is still an open wave with some cyclonic turning near 13.9 N 54W
Quoting IceCoast:


Why are we fools for watching something with ~20% chance of development? As a Meteorologist aren't we suppose to look at all these systems regardless of potential. For me, sometimes the systems that don't develop are as interesting as the ones that do. Isn't that your job as a meteorologist?
When he is wrong,i am sure you guys will let him know!
1260. hydrus
Quoting cloudburst2011:
baha thats the problem its not going n of pr its going to go south and thats right into the dom rep and haita very mountaionous terrain...will tear the sysytem apart..this will just be a rain maker in general if it makes it to south fla..if this gets in the se gom and is still a tw it could possibly with the warm ssts develop further into a tropical depression and bring some mischief somewhere along the gulfcoast..perhaps texas may get lucky...
Looking at that wave that went past here in the last 24 hours, enough of 90L will be N of the Antilles to allow for development there if conditions are right. Definitely right now they are not. I especially want to see what this looks like on Sat afternoon or Sunday, when its over / through the Big Islands. By then we'll see what is possible. But certainly your scenario is not out of the question; in fact it's got the model support....

Quoting aislinnpaps:
Thanks, everyone. I'm not very tech smart and have no idea how to switch to firefox, but going to just 50 worked.

I'm surprised no one yet is worrying and asking if we'll have a cane in the Gulf. I think some of the crowd is falling behind in worrying. *G*
LOL... I think the TX crew would be almost gleeful to see a storm if it would break the drought.... lol

Quoting BrockBerlin:
Hello guys doubt anyone remembers me although I was a somewhat regular poster here a few years back. I have picked up a lot of meteorological knowledge in the past 2 years (halfway now to my meteorology) so I can probably be a little more helpful now. However, I still have a lot to learn, and this site taught me a lot when I still in high school (most of my tropical meteorology knowledge up to this point is grounded in things I read on this site) so hopefully I can still learn a few more things.
Hey, Brock. Good to see u back and know ur pursuing that degree...

Jump in! We got a sauna in here... look at the temps... lol
Wow those heat indices in the Northeast are incredible allegedly up to 131 in Baltimore....never mind that seemed to incredible and looking at the nws it gave a still sweltering but reasonable 113 H.I.
1263. lucreto
Quoting overwash12:
When he is wrong,i am sure you guys will let him know!


If I am wrong I will freely admit that I was the "fool"
aspectre "...where the heck is the dry air that folks have been saying would stop 90L from developing?..."
1167 AussieStorm "Dry air......
1170 sunlinepr "Dark areas represent dry air, moving along with the wave..

Thanks, guys. Didn't spot or misinterpreted the dry areas in the earlier photos.

After a valiant effort, exBret has gone to the Low in the Sky.
Meanwhile TSCindy is heading toward Newquay,UK

6hours between dots.
Cindy's max.sus.wind was between 50mph(80.5k/h) and 85k/h(52.8mph)
minus its average travel speed of 26.3mph(42.4k/h),
for a spin of 23.7to26.5mph(38.1to42.6k/h)

Copy&paste bda, 35.2n53.8w, 36.3n51.6w, 38.3n49.1w, 40.3n47.3w-42.3n45.0w, 42.3n45.0w-43.5n42.8w, 43.5n42.8w-44.5n39.9w, 44.5n39.9w-45.5N 37.0w, 44.5n39.9w-nqy into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
1265. lucreto
Wow thanks aspectre that information has a .8% chance of being useful.... +-.15%
Levi: Great update -- one of the best explanations of the steering currents with the highs, etc that I've seen.

Interesting that the setup that the models show is the setup that occurred with Hurricane Andrew, the high forced it on a straightline west until it got to a more favorable area for development, and it took off.

Not to mean that either one of these waves will develop into an Andrew, simply that the same type of steering pattern existed.

The deep high over the central part of the country will play a big part in the steering this year, so it will be interesting to see how it develops going into August.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
In terms of Climatology, 90L will choose one of two paths.



850 Vort Heading right into the Likely hatched area.


Models are supporting the northern path.
1268. hydrus
1269. hydrus
1270. hydrus

This site might come in handy later on.

Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge



Link
1272. hydrus
3 month precip outlook...
"lurk mode off"

Hey guys i was just looking at the water temps out there in the gulf can any one post the gulf temps for 2005 on this day would love to compare, thanks in advance.
I think 90L will take a southerly path
90L looks a little more decent convective wise. Not well organized but a bit more interesting looking.