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U.S. Heat Builds: Parts of Southwest May Approach All-Time June Highs

By: Bob Henson 5:18 PM GMT on June 15, 2016

Earth’s warmest year on record so far will make its presence felt in North America during the latter half of June. A massive dome of high pressure at upper levels will take shape across the United States this weekend and persist through next week. Subsidence beneath the high pressure will warm the atmosphere and help temperatures to soar well above average over large parts of the nation. The most immediate concern is across the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley, where very moist low-level air combined with the building heat has led to heat advisories across many areas for Wednesday and/or Thursday. Residents of St. Louis, MO, may see their fifth consecutive day of heat index readings above 100°F by Thursday, and heat index values near or above 105°F are predicted on Wednesday and Thursday in Kansas City, MO; Tulsa, OK; Little Rock, AR; and Dallas-Fort Worth, TX. Only slight relief is expected toward the weekend. As an upper-level low traverses the north side of the ridge early next week, another burst of intense heat may develop ahead of it over the Northern Rockies and shift eastward across the Plains and Midwest.

Meanwhile, the deserts of southern California, Nevada, and Arizona--which largely missed out on the rains of El Niño--are now heating up quickly. Late June is typically the hottest time of the year in southeast New Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far west Texas (see Figure 3 below). It usually takes till July for the deserts of southwest AZ and southern CA to hit their peak of summer heat, so the upcoming heat wave is an early one there. An excessive heat watch is already in effect across parts of the far Southwest, where temperatures are expected to peak above the century mark on Sunday and/or Monday in such cities as Tucson, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Los Angeles. Figure 2 shows the latest WU forecasts compared with record highs for June and for any month. Phoenix’s hottest high on record prior to the first day of summer is 115°F, so Sunday is likely to break that mark. In Los Angeles, record heat this time of year depends hugely on local effects, such as the presence or absence of offshore winds, as well as the large-scale factors that will be present this weekend.



Figure 1. National Weather Service alerts on Wednesday morning, June 15, 2016, included a heat advisory for parts of the south-central US (orange) and an excessive heat watch for parts of the Desert Southwest (dark red). Image credit: NOAA/NWS.


Figure 2. WU temperatures for several major southwestern U.S. cities issued on Wednesday morning for Sunday and Monday, June 19-20, 2016, compared with record readings for June and for any time of the year. *Note: NWS records (NOWData) show 117°F at Tucson International Airport on June 26, 1990, as the highest official temperature for the Tucson area, going back to September 1894. An even higher reading of 118°F at the Tucson Magnetic Observatory was recorded on June 27, 1990, according to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera. However, based on his knowledge of the instrumentation in use in 1990 (an aspirator later found to be problematic), Herrera believes that both of these temperatures are most likely slight overestimates, and that the most reliable all-time records for Tucson are the 115°F readings at the Tucson NWS office on June 19, 1960; June 26, 1990; and July 28, 1995.


How does the National Weather Service classify dangerous heat?
Every NWS office except those in Alaska has its own set of criteria for issuing heat watches and warnings, based on local climatology. An excessive heat warning is used in the most dangerous situations, when vulnerable people can experience serious health effects. The national standard (which can be adjusted by local offices) is to issue an excessive heat warning when the heat index is expected to be at least 115°F for at least three hours, and/or at least 105°F for three days. A heat advisory is issued at a lower threshold, typically for a heat index of 105°F together with nighttime lows at or above 80°F. The thresholds for a heat advisory may be even lower for multiday heat waves (due to the cumulative effect of intense heat) or for events striking early in the season (see Figure 3 below). An excessive heat watch generally indicates that the excessive heat warning criteria may be met within the next 24 to 48 hours, again varying by location. For example, because the Los Angeles and San Diego NWS offices employ differing thresholds, the excessive heat watch for this weekend does not include Los Angeles County, even though temperatures will be comparable on either side of the county’s eastern border.


Figure 3. Average date of peak summertime temperature varies from late June near El Paso, TX, to late August along parts of the TX and LA Gulf Coast. Sunlight is most intense near the summer solstice (usually June 20 or 21), which heats up dry areas quickly, but the peak summer heat often takes a few weeks to build in relatively moist areas, especially the south-central states. Image credit: NOAA/NWS. For more on this topic, see the related post by Christopher Burt, “Warmest Days of the Year for the U.S.”.


The challenge of air travel in fierce Desert Southwest heat
The upcoming scorcher could give the great heat wave of June 1990 a run for its money in some areas. On June 26, 1990, Los Angeles notched an all-time June record of 112°F, while Tucson and Phoenix set all-time highs for any date with almost-unfathomable readings of 117°F and 122°F, respectively. Temperatures in this range can actually impede air travel, since the near-ground atmosphere becomes so thin that some types of aircraft cannot obtain sufficient lift to take off. Extreme heat can also damage the internal components of some aircraft. Phoenix’s Sky Harbor Airport halted all takeoffs as a precaution during the all-time record heat of June 1990. Urban legend has it that the closure was due to the tarmac melting, but an airport spokesperson confirmed to KJZZ radio last year that it was uncertainty about aircraft performance at that temperature that actually led to the closure. More recently, on June 29, 2013, 18 US Airways flights were cancelled because the regional aircraft involved had been certified for takeoff in temperatures of no more than 118°F, according to the UK Telegraph. Temperatures on that day hit 119°F in Phoenix, the city’s third-highest reading on record.

Hot times at high latitudes
Global temperatures continue to run at a near-record pace as we transition from the recently deceased El Niño toward a potential La Niña. We’ll have a full report on May’s global climate with the release of NOAA’s monthly summary later this week, including another bumper crop of all-time local heat records. Two of the most striking heat reports in the last several weeks have come from opposite ends of the globe.

On May 27, the daily low temperature at Esperanza Base, on the outer end of the Antarctic Peninsula, was 8.8°C (47.8°F). According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this appears to be the warmest daily low on record anywhere in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula, King George Island, and other islands lying below the 60°S latitude that are considered part of the continent by the Antarctic Treaty. (WU weather historian Christopher Burt has a post on the all-time high of 17.5°C (63.5°F), set at Esperanza in March 2015.) Herrera, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website, has not found any other examples of daily lows in Antarctica any milder than 6.5°C. “For a continental record, this was smashed by an amazing margin,” he added.


Figure 4. The extent of melting on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet hit dramatic seasonal peaks in April, May, and early June 2016, most recently approaching the 40% mark. Image credit: NSIDC.


Only a few days after the mild night at Esperanza, a major burst of early-season warmth swept across southwest Greenland. According to the Dutch meteorological agency DMI, temperatures at the Nuuk airport hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) on Friday, June 9. This is the warmest reading ever observed in Greenland for the month of June, easily topping the 23.3°C (73.9°F) set on June 15, 2014, in Kangerlussuaq, about 200 miles north of Nuuk. Downslope winds blowing offshore from the mountains of southwest Greenland helped warm the atmosphere in the Nuuk area (the same process that drives foehn and chinook warming). Nuuk’s record high resulted from this downslope warming on top of already-unusual mildness throughout the depth of the atmosphere over much of Greenland. This extreme early-June warmth led to the third noteworthy spike of the year in surface melting atop Greenland’s ice sheet, following major melt events in April and May (see Figure 4 above).

Still waiting on our first Eastern Pacific tropical storm
The tropics remain fairly quiet, with the only system currently being tracked--Invest 93E in the eastern North Pacific--expected to organize only slowly over the next few days as it moves away from the Mexican coastline. In its 8:00 AM EDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center gives 93E a 20% chance of development by Friday and a 50% chance by Monday. If it does become a tropical storm, it will be Agatha, the first named storm of the Eastern Pacific season. Meanwhile, a surface low associated with an upper-level impulse moving toward the East Coast may undergo some organization this weekend well off the East Coast, although models have largely backed off on potential tropical/subtropical development as surface high pressure is projected to dominate the Northwest Atlantic.

We'll be back with a new post on Thursday.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. Infrared satellite image showing an area of disturbed weather off the southern coast of Mexico (Invest 93) as of 1500Z (11:00 AM EDT) Wednesday, June 15, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Extreme Weather Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Mr. Henson!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave is expected to reach the Bay of Campeche over the
weekend. Significant development of system has become less likely
due to the interaction with land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Avila


May 2016 was the warmest May on record for the earth, according to an analysis released Monday by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The top three warmest Mays in NASA's dataset have all now occurred in the last three years.

The global temperature departure in May 2016 was 0.93 degrees Celsius above the 1951-1980 average. This beat the previous May record set in 2014 by 0.07 degrees Celsius. This also marks the eighth consecutive month in a row in NASA's dataset that the earth has recorded its warmest respective month on record.
Regarding the boy being taken at Disney, it was on one of the small beaches they have around the fresh water lagoon. The family from Nebraska likely did not know much about gators. They do have "no swimming" signs, but really they need "do not enter the water" signs. They likely thought they were at the coast but sadly weren't.
Quoting 2. Climate175:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave is expected to reach the Bay of Campeche over the
weekend. Significant development of system has become less likely
due to the interaction with land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Avila


What about the other system off the NC coast? Why hasn't it been mentioned yet?
Only a few days after the mild night in Esperanza, a major burst of early-season warmth swept across southwest Greenland. According to the Dutch meteorological agency DMI, temperatures at the Nuuk airport hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) on Friday, June 9. This is the warmest reading ever observed in Greenland for the month of June, easily topping the 23.3°C (73.9°F) set on June 15, 2014, in Kangerlussuaq, about 200 miles north of Nuuk. Downslope winds blowing offshore from the mountains of southwest Greenland helped warm the atmosphere in the Nuuk area (the same process that drives foehn and chinook warming). Nuuk’s record high resulted from this downslope warming on top of already-unusual mildness throughout the depth of the atmosphere over much of Greenland. This extreme early-June warmth led to the third noteworthy spike of the year in surface melting atop Greenland’s ice sheet, following major melt events in April and May (see Figure 4 above).





Atmospheric CO2

May 2016

407.70
ppm

carried forward from last blog:
633. ChiThom
12:12 PM CDT on June 15, 2016
1
+
We got 1.25" of rain overnight. My cherries are ready for picking ten days early...but it's too hot and humid today, so maybe I'll have to work at night.
Question?

a surface low associated with an upper-level impulse moving toward the East Coast may undergo some organization this weekend well off the East Coast, although models have largely backed off on potential tropical/subtropical development as surface high pressure is projected to dominate the Northwest Pacific.



How does surface high pressure in the Northwest Pacific affect development of the low pressure system off the east coast of the US? Did you mean Northwest Atlantic?
From the previous blog:
Quoting 632. MonsterTrough:


parkway is Killing me on Instagram right now! A little too far away up here. Sunny and storms rolled through Cent Ind already.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0931
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...FAR SRN IL...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE
TN...SERN MO...FAR NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151705Z - 151830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND MAY POSE A RISK OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL.
A WATCH IS LIKELY WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM SRN IND SWWD INTO
SERN MO NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION.
CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000
J/KG. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF
KY AND MIDDLE TN...DUE TO MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...CHARACTERIZED BY
MID-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS AND PW VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...AND
WITH CONTINUED FILTERED SUNSHINE AND GRADUAL HEATING...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR MAINTAINING
STRONG CONVECTION FARTHER EWD. ADDITIONALLY...AREA VWP DATA NOTES A
MODEST INCREASE IN MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING.
CURRENT THINKING IS SEVERAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS
AND ISOLATED HAIL WILL EVOLVE FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY...SPREADING ESEWD TOWARDS THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL KY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. MORE RECENT RUNS OF THE ESRL AND NCEP HRRR SUGGEST
UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE BY 18Z.

..ROGERS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016


ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 38528761 38738686 39128558 39038496 38768462 37918527
36798661 35198811 35058874 35078985 35159042 35629056
36379020 36978997 37938842 38528761


Looks as if you just missed out on the action
For those who were discussing Parkway Tavern here in NOLA, they doing a great thing for a school in Nepal.

More here.
Just got a nice t-storm here. Picked up about 2 inches of rain in 1/2 hour.
Quoting 8. daddyjames:

Question?

a surface low associated with an upper-level impulse moving toward the East Coast may undergo some organization this weekend well off the East Coast, although models have largely backed off on potential tropical/subtropical development as surface high pressure is projected to dominate the Northwest Pacific.



How does surface high pressure in the Northwest Pacific affect development of the low pressure system off the east coast of the US? Did you mean Northwest Atlantic?


Indeed I did. Fixed--thanks for the catch!
We just had a gnarly thunderstorm in Topsail Beach, NC. Just saw a funnel cloud across the sound on the mainland.
Quoting 13. NCHurricaneTracker69:

We just had a gnarly thunderstorm in Topsail Beach, NC. Just saw a funnel cloud across the sound on the mainland.

 Onslow Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsSpecial StatementIssued: 1:45 PM EDT Jun. 15, 2016 – National Weather Service

... A strong thunderstorm will affect east central Onslow...
southwestern Carteret... south central Craven and southeastern Jones
counties...

At 145 PM EDT... a strong thunderstorm was located near Swansboro... or
10 miles east of Piney Green... moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Havelock... Newport... Swansboro... Cape Carteret and Cedar Point.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm... and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Lat... Lon 3464 7720 3483 7723 3488 7688 3470 7683
time... Mot... loc 1745z 266deg 13kt 3475 7715


27




SEL8

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 258
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM
UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...AIDED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WITH ENHANCED FLOW
ALOFT...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY AS THEY PROGRESS GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 35 MILES WEST OF DYERSBURG
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.


...GUYER
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 151 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 143 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 1233 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC - KMHX 115 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 1203 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LOUISVILLE KY - KLMK 1229 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016
12z ECMWF running, will be interesting to see how it develops the cyclone off the U.S. east coast. It has been developing it subtropically in recent runs.
it's 94.6 degrees in Fort Pierce, FL.

This follows 93 degrees yesterday.

I am not looking forward to August here.
Thank You very much. Did not know that with regard to the issue of heat and lift as to aircraft in very hot conditions. Then I think back to the failed Iranian hostage rescue attempt in 1980 when some helicopters crashed in the desert and the most recent May 2011 Bin Laden raid when there was discussion about heat/lift issues that caused the one stealth helicopter to crash as well. Point being that this heat/lift issue impacts helicopters as well as airplanes.

This year is going to bring some potentially serious issues (potential heat related deaths and particularly among the weak and elderly) in many parts of the world at this present pace (hottest year on record so far in the modern record).
A Czech research team reported a temperature of 17.8 C / 64.0 F on James Ross Island on March 14, 2015, which would be the record all-time warmest temperature anywhere on mainland Antarctica or on the Antarctic Peninsula islands.

Link
Quoting 3. Patrap:



And I was right at the edge of the most anomalously warm patch. What a pleasantly warm and sunny May it was.



(note the different base period)

GFS has the BOC low hanging around and eventually developing. Don't even pay attention to the storm in the Florida panhandle.
Quoting 21. DCSwithunderscores:

A Czech research team reported a temperature of 17.8 C / 64.0 F on James Ross Island on March 14, 2015, which would be the record all-time warmest temperature anywhere on mainland Antarctica or on the Antarctic Peninsula islands.

Link


Scientists working in the Antarctic interior refer to the peninsula as 'the banana belt'.
It was not the heat that caused the failed Mission in 80.

Operation Eagle Claw.


The operation encountered many obstacles and was eventually aborted. Eight helicopters were sent to the first staging area, Desert One, but only five arrived in operational condition.One encountered hydraulic problems, another got caught in a cloud of very fine sand, and the last one showed signs of a cracked rotor blade. During planning it was decided that the mission would be aborted if fewer than six helicopters remained, despite only four being absolutely necessary. In a move that is still discussed in military circles, the field commanders advised mission abort, which President Carter accepted and confirmed.

As the U.S. force prepared to leave, one of the helicopters crashed into a transport aircraft which contained both servicemen and jet fuel. The resulting fire destroyed both aircraft and killed eight servicemen. Operation Eagle Claw was one of Delta Force's first missions.

Quoting 9. daddyjames:

From the previous blog:




Looks as if you just missed out on the action


The first wave yes. 86 deg, 74 dewpoint, wind from sw at 15mph..... itsa comin.
ECMWF has the "cyclone" making landfall in New England. Interesting
Quoting 27. HurricaneFan:



Looks pretty extratropical to me.
Still some hope for development. Also ECMWF shows a more concentrated low than before.

Looks like another very quiet hurricane season with forecast above normal pressure in MDR by the ECMWF. Another season without anything 12 years running would be amazing.
Quoting 29. HurricaneFan:

ECMWF has the "cyclone" making landfall in New England. Interesting



Shows it going out to sea
Quoting 29. HurricaneFan:

ECMWF has the "cyclone" making landfall in New England. Interesting



I don't see that on the 12z run. The system stays offshore based on what I'm seeing. I'm also not sure if it's going to be a tropical low.
Also ECMWF not calling for La Nina but neutral conditions also big cool pool that has formed in eastern atlantic last 2 weeks.
Quoting 32. help4u:

Looks like another very quiet hurricane season with forecast above normal pressure in MDR by the ECMWF. Another season without anything 12 years running would be amazing.

Keyword is "MDR". There will likely be some potential "Homegrown" threats. In addition, i wouldn't exactly call it a quiet hurricane season, if for the July-December period, the ECMWF model is forecasting around 12 more named storms and 9 more hurricanes, which would bring us to a total of 15 Named Storms, 10 Hurricanes for the season. :)
Temperatures in this range can actually impede air travel, since the near-ground atmosphere becomes so thin that some types of aircraft cannot obtain sufficient lift to take off.

I have experienced this several times , working with helicopters in the south central Utah mountains. By noon the air just wasn't thick enough for the rotors to have anything to bite into. Amaco was not happy about that.
On May 27, the daily low temperature at Esperanza Base, on the outer end of the Antarctic Peninsula, was 8.8°C (47.8°F). According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this appears to be the warmest daily low on record anywhere in Antarctica, including the Antarctic Peninsula,

Hell of a number going into winter in the dark.
39. IDTH
Good overall consensus for the BOC storm.
No eastern Pacific storms, no monsoon. Should still be a few weeks off.
41. IDTH

Quoting 32. help4u:

Looks like another very quiet hurricane season with forecast above normal pressure in MDR by the ECMWF. Another season without anything 12 years running would be amazing.

The ECMWF has called for above-average pressures in the MDR during the ASO period every year since 2012. And it has been wrong every year since 2012.
Quoting 4. MahFL:

Regarding the boy being taken at Disney, it was on one of the small beaches they have around the fresh water lagoon. The family from Nebraska likely did not know much about gators. They do have "no swimming" signs, but really they need "do not enter the water" signs. They likely thought they were at the coast but sadly weren't.


He wasn't in the water though so don't blame the parents. The boy was playing in the sand on the beach they have there near the water's edge. The gator came out of the water to grab the boy. He likely was eaten by the gator according to the news here in Orlando. I've seen 7' to 9' alligators in that lagoon before. People need to realize Disney was built on a massive swamp back in the 1960's and with the excessive amounts of rain we get on a yearly basis it is really hard to control gators inside any park in Florida.
Quoting 34. Sfloridacat5:



I don't see that on the 12z run. The system stays offshore based on what I'm seeing. I'm also not sure if it's going to be a tropical low.


Likely not even right to begin with as the GFS has been very consistent in bringing this energy SW across FL as a weak system.
Quoting 37. RobertWC:

Temperatures in this range can actually impede air travel, since the near-ground atmosphere becomes so thin that some types of aircraft cannot obtain sufficient lift to take off.

I have experienced this several times , working with helicopters in the south central Utah mountains. By noon the air just wasn't thick enough for the rotors to have anything to bite into. Amaco was not happy about that.


I took a helicopter trip down into the Grand Canyon when it was 118 degrees. I remember they were having excessive heat warnings for temperatures approaching 120 degrees. We flew out of Las Vegas.
We had to make an unscheduled stop for gas at a random gas pump in the middle of the desert with nothing in sight for miles in every direction. There wasn't even a building or anything. Just a gas pump in the middle of no where (obviously put there for helicopters in need).

The next day we went up to Mount Charleston to get out of the heat. The weather was perfect up there at 8000-11,000 ft. above sea level.
Quoting 36. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Keyword is "MDR". There will likely be some potential "Homegrown" threats. In addition, i wouldn't exactly call it a quiet hurricane season, if for the July-December period, the ECMWF model is forecasting around 12 more named storms and 9 more hurricanes, which would bring us to a total of 15 Named Storms, 10 Hurricanes for the season. :)


That user says things like that all the time. If you see anyone say the season is over in June, take what they say with a huge grain of salt :)
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson,

Counting down to the Roasting, NorCal will get it worse.... theirs will be slightly delayed.
Quoting 46. Hurricanes101:



That user says things like that all the time. If you see anyone say the season is over in June, take what they say with a huge grain of salt :)

Oh ok, thank you. I've only been here a year and a half, haven't seen that person before.
Quoting 42. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The ECMWF has called for above-average pressures in the MDR during the ASO period every year since 2012. And it has been wrong every year since 2012.
We also had very quiet years for storms it must have helped kept the storms from forming.
Quoting 46. Hurricanes101:



That user says things like that all the time. If you see anyone say the season is over in June, take what they say with a huge grain of salt :)
Did not say over quiet no huge hurricanes.
Just reading some of the tweets Phil Klotzbach put out on coming season a lot of changes.
hey where did wunderkid go?
way out in time but,July 1st might get interesting......................................
how many people live in this region....seems very inhospitable most of the year....
then again so does Cayman but we are still here....just not to the extremes
Quoting 25. Neapolitan:

"Rare, dangerous, and deadly":



Quoting 47. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the update Mr. Henson,

Counting down to the Roasting, NorCal will get it worse.... theirs will be slightly delayed.


I guess we're due. I notice the forecast has dropped 3 degrees but that's a 30 degree difference from today. Been below average so far this spring, people were wearing coats at the beach two weekends ago. 72F right now in inland OC, CA, in the 50s last night.
Tornado watch out for East central WIsconsin.
45. Sfloridacat5

We were moving helicopter portable shot hole drills , the compressor package weighed 1300 lbs.

This is an early model



Lamas at the Afton Wyoming airport fall of 79'

ECMWF trying to close off the BoC low.

I know development chances dropped but I still think it could form.
Quoting 45. Sfloridacat5:



I took a helicopter trip down into the Grand Canyon when it was 118 degrees. I remember they were having excessive heat warnings for temperatures approaching 120 degrees. We flew out of Las Vegas.
We had to make an unscheduled stop for gas at a random gas pump in the middle of the desert with nothing in sight for miles in every direction. There wasn't even a building or anything. Just a gas pump in the middle of no where (obviously put there for helicopters in need).

The next day we went up to Mount Charleston to get out of the heat. The weather was perfect up there at 8000-11,000 ft. above sea level.
When I was in Vegas two weeks ago, Charleston still had a nice cap of snow. I imagine that'll be gone by Sunday, if it's not gone already...
Monster African Thunderstorm Hurls Enormous Haboob at Europe, 100 + Degree (F) Heat to Follow

An expansion of the Sahara Desert northward into Europe. A scenario that has long been a concern raised by scientists modeling potential extreme weather and climate scenarios related to human-caused climate change. And this week, it appears that Southern and Eastern Europe are going to get a taste of Sahara Desert-type weather conditions. It’s just unfolding a bit more dramatically than scientists at first anticipated.

Link
Quoting 55. 19N81W:

how many people live in this region....seems very inhospitable most of the year....
then again so does Cayman but we are still here....just not to the extremes



Desert climates are usually quite liveable the other 8 months of the year. Also, on warmer days the evenings/nights are nice to be outdoors with few insects to contend with. Elevation also is a factor. So can't really be called inhospitable. Phoenicians no doubt wonder the same about folks who live with snow.
Current warming of the nino 3.4 region is odd, even though fluctuations are expected.
Quoting 60. Neapolitan:

When I was in Vegas two weeks ago, Charleston still had a nice cap of snow. I imagine that'll be gone by Sunday, if it's not gone already...


It's really nice up there when it's baking hot down in Vegas. I went hiking with my daughter and did my best to keep up. Living in Florida at basically sea level doesn't help. I got tired pretty quickly at that altitude.
Quoting 61. RobertWC:

Monster African Thunderstorm Hurls Enormous Haboob at Europe, 100 Degree (F) Heat to Follow

An expansion of the Sahara Desert northward into Europe. A scenario that has long been a concern raised by scientists modeling potential extreme weather and climate scenarios related to human-caused climate change. And this week, it appears that Southern and Eastern Europe are going to get a taste of Sahara Desert-type weather conditions. It's just unfolding a bit more dramatically than scientists at first anticipated.

Link

Earth.nullschool.net, dust (AOT), source GEOS-5 / GMAO / NASA - 2016/06/17/0600Z :
We often see BOC storms, in the early or late season, spin up relatively quickly into a TD or storm because of the topography effect but they often come ashore quickly in Texas or the Northern Gulf coast before reaching major storm status but dumping a lot of rain-flooding and particularly if they linger. Hopefully, this will be that type of storm (that does not stall) if one does materialize and not much else..............The greatest threat for the Gulf are the Cape Verde storms that sneak in there from Florida or the Caribbean.

The wave continues on the move towards that region:


Quoting 59. HurricaneFan:

ECMWF trying to close off the BoC low.

I know development chances dropped but I still think it could form.

I agree. Models often struggle with BOC systems.
Thank you everyone for your kind comments on my "return from the lost" post a couple blogs past. I'm actually quite surprised that so many people missed my comments. There are lots of people here way smarter than me. I assume it must be my manly physique and full head of blond hair. :-)

The pre-summer heat wave has certainly hit SE Alabama. This is the first day in the past six days that we haven't had a high at or over 100 and a heat index less than 105. It's just 88 now with a heat index of 93, which feels actually pleasant compared to the last week. My ham buddy moved down my way on Memorial Day weekend. He lives 20 miles due west of me. He is now up to almost three inches of rain since he got here. My total is a disappointing 0.17". That's really an amazing difference for just 20 miles but one to keep in mind when people report wildly varying rain totals in just a short distance from each other. Everything is getting completely dried out, and it looks like my lawn could spontaneously burst into flames.

I see the usual cherry picking of models looking for some kind of tropical development is now in full swing. I don't know is this part of a desire to say "saw it first!" or just boredom, but my experience is that I chased a lot of false storms in my earlier days. A real storm is going to be picked up by substantially all the models within 7-10 days of landfall. Every model will show one of these ghost storms occasionally, but it's the agreement of other major models (or lack thereof) that gives us something to hang our hat on. The days of one model sniffing out a storm that all the rest miss is just about over given the increasing model accuracy we've seen over the past five years or so. Right now, regardless of models, conditions just aren't good for anything to form in the next seven days or so.
Quoting 68. sar2401:

Thank you everyone for your kind comments on my "return from the lost" post a couple blogs past. I'm actually quite surprised that so many people missed my comments. There are lots of people here way smarter than me. I assume it must be my manly physique and full head of blond hair. :-)

The pre-summer heat wave has certainly hit SE Alabama. This is the first day in the past six days that we haven't had a high at or over 100 and a heat index less than 105. It's just 88 now with a heat index of 93, which feels actually pleasant compared to the last week. My ham buddy moved down my way on Memorial Day weekend. He lives 20 miles due west of me. He is now up to almost three inches of rain since he got here. My total is a disappointing 0.17". That's really an amazing difference for just 20 miles but one to keep in mind when people report wildly varying rain totals in just a short distance from each other. Everything is getting completely dried out, and it looks like my lawn could spontaneously burst into flames.

I see the usual cherry picking of models looking for some kind of tropical development is now in full swing. I don't know is this part of a desire to saw "saw it first!" or just boredom, but my experience is that I chased a lot of false storms in my earlier days. A real storm is going to be picked up by substantially all the models within 7-10 days of landfall. Every model will show one of these ghost storms occasionally, but it's the agreement of other major models (or lack thereof) that gives us something to hang our hat on. The days of one model sniffing out a storm that all the rest miss is just about over given the increasing model accuracy we've seen over the past five years or so. Right now, regardless of models, conditions just aren't good for anything to form in the next seven days or so.

Nice to see you again.
Sheer and land interaction is keeping wave in check as noted by NHC/Dr. Avila but you never know if the wave will look good after crossing into the Bay and it meets a favorable shear window and tries to spin something up just before moving on-shore.  

I actually think the overall structure of the wave, and cyclonic rotation, actually looks pretty good but for the fact that it is currently moving ashore in Nicaragua and Honduras....................... :)






 
Quoting 12. BobHenson:



Indeed I did. Fixed--thanks for the catch!


Thought that was one heck of a teleconnection . . . . have a great day!
Quoting 67. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I agree. Models often struggle with BOC systems.
It looks like there will be a broad trough of low pressure in the BOC and Gulf until about Monday. There may be a surface low that develops from time time within this trough but any that do develop will be short-lived. Any low in the BOC is likely to hang a left and go into Mexico in the face of the huge high that's going to be parked over the US starting this weekend. The BOC is always worth watching this time of year, but any real development potential is a ways off yet.
Quoting 55. 19N81W:

how many people live in this region....seems very inhospitable most of the year....
then again so does Cayman but we are still here....just not to the extremes


I think that Phoenix is the fifth largest city (by population) in the U.S.
They found the boy in Orlando - intact, but not alive.
Good to see ya back sar! 94 w/ 72 dew pt for a 102 HI in S C IL, looks like we're just missing storms to E again. Yesterday got a shower in town at noon that knocked dew pt down so didn't go above 100, though my house got none, but puddles at work and a slightly wet shirt coming back in from lunch. Not showing quite as nice a cold front for this weekend as earlier, but will take any break at this pt. Looks like my daughter will possibly see her first 120 in Tempe. Dry heat or not, no thanks!
Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 5h5 hours ago
Big trade surge in the forecast over the central-eastern Pacific during the upcoming two weeks due to MJO activity.

Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 6h6 hours ago
Weak Pacific trades have helped to stall #LaNina, but MJO & trade surge coming should force more cooling for summer

Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 7h7 hours ago
Calibrated ECMWF EPS genesis guidance still only showing a marginal risk for Bay of Campeche tropical cyclone threat
Quoting 70. weathermanwannabe:

Sheer and land interaction is keeping wave in check as noted by NHC/Dr. Avila but you never know if the wave will look good after crossing into the Bay and it meets a favorable shear window and tries to spin something up just before moving on-shore.  

I actually think the overall structure of the wave, and cyclonic rotation, actually looks pretty good but for the fact that it is currently moving ashore in Nicaragua and Honduras....................... :)
As you say, it really depends on the exact track of the wave. I'd be more optimistic if the wave was producing more weather further offshore than where it is now. It has some chance for a little development in the Gulf of Honduras but all the land interaction is likely to keep this just another tropical wave we typically see traversing the area this time of year.
I posted this in the earlier blog today, but I'm going to post it again for anyone that missed it.

This year's dry season was one of the wettest in history for South Florida.

Dry Season Stats
The 2015/2016 South Florida dry season was the wettest November through May
since 1957/1958 and the second wettest since recordkeeping began in 1932. Districtwide,
29.49 inches of rain fell, representing 168 percent of average, or 11.98 inches
above average.
Link
Quoting 61. RobertWC:

Monster African Thunderstorm Hurls Enormous Haboob at Europe, 100 + Degree (F) Heat to Follow

An expansion of the Sahara Desert northward into Europe. A scenario that has long been a concern raised by scientists modeling potential extreme weather and climate scenarios related to human-caused climate change. And this week, it appears that Southern and Eastern Europe are going to get a taste of Sahara Desert-type weather conditions. It’s just unfolding a bit more dramatically than scientists at first anticipated.

Link


This could turn out to be a pretty dramatic weather event. If the dust plume was further west, we'd hear a lot more about it on the news here, but the Balkans and eastern Europe don't make the news so much.

The article is calling it a 'haboob', but I doubt that it'll cross all the way across the Med in that form, so probably just an above average Saharan dust event that Europe gets from time to time?

Anyway, I can't think of anything more dramatic than a giant haboob rolling into Europe from Africa to emphasise a changing world due to global warming.
Phoenix about to get scorched this weekend. Hopefully everybody there will be ready. Very serious situation!

Quoting 77. sar2401:

As you say, it really depends on the exact track of the wave. I'd be more optimistic if the wave was producing more weather further offshore than where it is now. It has some chance for a little development in the Gulf of Honduras but all the land interaction is likely to keep this just another tropical wave we typically see traversing the area this time of year.
Yup; I think more BOC storms are produced towards the end of the season from Fall frontal and trof remnants, or those big "Yucatan lows" that form down there from time to time as opposed to this type of wave moving in from the Caribbean (and especially with this current trajectory over land)  
Quoting 65. 999Ai2016:


Earthnullschool.net, dust (AOT), source GEOS-5 / GMAO / NASA - 2016/06/17/0600Z :



That's a lot of nutrients, coming to keep Hungarian plain etc. fertile.
sar2401, (snip) Thank you everyone for your kind comments on my "return from the lost" post a couple blogs past. I'm actually quite surprised that so many people missed my comments. There are lots of people here way smarter than me. I assume it must be my manly physique and full head of blond hair. :-) (snip)
You may not be the smartest one, but you can, at times, be very prolific. And you're great at searching. (no surprise there.)
Quoting 73. ChiThom:


I think that Phoenix is the fifth largest city (by population) in the U.S.
12th metro, not sure about city itself. My cherries have been gone since start of June. Blue berries have started in last week or so though. HI back to 100 now, maybe a breeze from the Tstorms to E?
Quoting 73. ChiThom:


I think that Phoenix is the fifth largest city (by population) in the U.S.

It is number 6, Philadelphia is #5
Quoting 86. PedleyCA:


It is number 6, Philadelphia is #5

Thank you for the update.
Quoting 75. dabirds:

Good to see ya back sar! 94 w/ 72 dew pt for a 102 HI in S C IL, looks like we're just missing storms to E again. Yesterday got a shower in town at noon that knocked dew pt down so didn't go above 100, though my house got none, but puddles at work and a slightly wet shirt coming back in from lunch. Not showing quite as nice a cold front for this weekend as earlier, but will take any break at this pt. Looks like my daughter will possibly see her first 120 in Tempe. Dry heat or not, no thanks!
Thanks. NIce to you, tigger, and all the others as well. The desert is just one of those places you either love or hate. I like the desert but the heat can get pretty overwhelming, just as it can in Alabama or St. Louis. The difference really is the humidity. It's generally tolerable in the shade during the heat of the day on the desert. Not pleasant, but tolerable. If find the combination of heat and humidity much more enerving here, and even being in the shade offers only slight relief. The real killer in the desert is the lack of overnight cooling. Even on the hottest days here it will generally get below 80 for at least a few hours. A place like Phoenix will regularly see lows above 90 during the summer, and lows of 100 aren't unknown.
Quoting 86. PedleyCA:


It is number 6, Philadelphia is #5

"Second City" is third on the list!
Quoting 72. sar2401:

It looks like there will be a broad trough of low pressure in the BOC and Gulf until about Monday. There may be a surface low that develops from time time within this trough but any that do develop will be short-lived. Any low in the BOC is likely to hang a left and go into Mexico in the face of the huge high that's going to be parked over the US starting this weekend. The BOC is always worth watching this time of year, but any real development potential is a ways off yet.


If I remember correctly you are from Southern Alabama. I'll be in Dothan next week.
Quoting 89. sar2401:

Thanks. NIce to you, tigger, and all the others as well. The desert is just one of those places you either love or hate. I like the desert but the heat can get pretty overwhelming, just as it can in Alabama or St. Louis. The difference really is the humidity. It's generally tolerable in the shade during the heat of the day on the desert. Not pleasant, but tolerable. If find the combination of heat and humidity much more enerving here, and even being in the shade offers only slight relief. The real killer in the desert is the lack of overnight cooling. Even on the hottest days here it will generally get below 80 for at least a few hours. A place like Phoenix will regularly see lows above 90 during the summer, and lows of 100 aren't unknown.

Your ability to fill-in information, like this example, is what makes you famous here.
So sad but the body of the 2 yr old boy taken by the gator has been recovered. Looks like he wasn't eaten as earlier reported on here.
First Severe thunderstorms of the day here in Wisconsin. The southernmost one has a history of funnel clouds and has the look on radar.It also has 2.75 in size hail. It currently is in the wilderness known as the Necedah National Wildlife Refuge right now,but should head towards the more populated coast of Lake Petenwell in about 40-60 minutes or so.
Quoting 83. ChiThom:

sar2401, (snip) Thank you everyone for your kind comments on my "return from the lost" post a couple blogs past. I'm actually quite surprised that so many people missed my comments. There are lots of people here way smarter than me. I assume it must be my manly physique and full head of blond hair. :-) (snip)
You may not be the smartest one, but you can, at times, be very prolific. And you're great at searching. (no surprise there.)
Thanks. That's a nice way to put it. :-)
Quoting 63. CaribBoy:

Current warming of the nino 3.4 region is odd, even though fluctuations are expected.
WWB
Quoting 92. ChiThom:


Your ability to fill-in information, like this example, is what makes you famous here.
I don't know about famous, but living a lot of different places during my long life gives me a little more insight than just googling things. It's like 115 degrees as just an abstract number. If you've actually lived somewhere when it got to 115 degrees, that becomes a little more concrete. I was also lucky to have traveled extensively for business and pleasure. I really hope younger people still get that opportunity in the future. Things like Skype and virtual meetings probably doesn't make that as likely though.
Quoting 93. Bucsboltsfan:

So sad but the body of the 2 yr old boy taken by the gator has been recovered. Looks like he wasn't eaten as earlier reported on here.
At least the family will have closure now that the body has been recovered.It is possibly the worst thing that could happen to a parent as they see their 2 year old get dragged into the water.No one should have to go through that.
Quoting 93. Bucsboltsfan:

So sad but the body of the 2 yr old boy taken by the gator has been recovered. Looks like he wasn't eaten as earlier reported on here.
Sad thing, although entering any water after dark down here is a real risk if gators are about. I've read that gators will drag their prey under water and hold it under until it drowns. They then stash the remains and come back later to eat. Maybe that was the case here.
Is it just my computer or is something awry with the website? When I look at the list who plusses a post, it's just a line of usernames with HTML commands embedded.
101. IDTH
Starting to warm again in the MDR and its cooling again the nino regions, Again fluctuations are bound to happen.
102. OKsky
Quoting 100. sar2401:

Is it just my computer or is something awry with the website? When I look at the list who plusses a post, it's just a line of usernames with HTML commands embedded.


Its working on my end, but that doesn't rule anything out. It could be something on your side such as a browser glitch or it could be on the server side where a bug is preventing some css from getting dished out. Hard to tell.
Quoting 95. sar2401:

Thanks. That's a nice way to put it. :-)


Missed you, Sar. Good to "see" you.
Tornado Warning for a storm Near Weston Wisconsin.
Quoting 99. sar2401:

Sad thing, although entering any water after dark down here is a real risk if gators are about. I've read that gators will drag their prey under water and hold it under until it drowns. They then stash the remains and come back later to eat. Maybe that was the case here.


I've lived in Florida for 54 years and I have all the the respect for gators - especially when the sun goes down. However, I would never expect this to happen at WDW.
Quoting 21. DCSwithunderscores:

A Czech research team reported a temperature of 17.8 C / 64.0 F on James Ross Island on March 14, 2015, which would be the record all-time warmest temperature anywhere on mainland Antarctica or on the Antarctic Peninsula islands.

Link


Records get complicated fast when it comes to Antarctica! Chris Burt's post linked from the blog gives some good perspective. If we include all the islands that extend from the Antarctic Peninsula, then the all-time high is 19.8°C in January 1982 on Signy Island, located just inside the 60°S circle. If we include only the Antarctic landmass and peninsula, then the Esperenza reading mentioned in the blog is the all-time high. It looks like the Czech record might apply if you included some but not all of the islands extending north from the peninsula.
If the Eoro's right then Florida will recieve a frontal passage by late weekend followed by a heat wave!
Interesting post about the on-going situation in the US with the heat.
Here in the Iberian peninsular things are a bit chilly for the time of year.

From last weeks temps here of about 40/C, today we have 22/C in Southern Spain and down to about +14/C in the north with even some snow over the French Pyrenees.
High winds of up to about 110 KPH or touching 70 MPH in some areas.
Things look grim for the eastern Europe later this week with yet another dust intrusion. Should bring in some interesting reports from beneath the Saharan dust clouds later on.

26/C over Oslo Norway make it hotter than Seville!

After a winter of plentiful rains in Spain we are now waiting for the fire season, which has plenty of high level weeds and grass to consume especially if we also have high winds.

Somewhat concerned about he heat that’s bound to be coming after all this ends or pauses at the beginning of next week.
Needless to say, we are probably in for an interesting summer both over the Atlantic and the adjoining land masses.
109. Tcwx2
Hello Sar. I completely agree with you about the heat, Monday was the hottest day we've had here in Andy a high of 99F with a heat index of 116F! Very pleasant today with a high of 77 and some good thunderstorms. Ended with 2.45" today although I was not able to see it all. I'm pleased today after the disappointing days of missing the rain within 5 miles (3 straight days!!!). Looking for a few widely isolated severe storms Friday to go along with a high of 101F!
Quoting 68. sar2401:

Thank you everyone for your kind comments on my "return from the lost" post a couple blogs past. I'm actually quite surprised that so many people missed my comments. There are lots of people here way smarter than me. I assume it must be my manly physique and full head of blond hair. :-)

The pre-summer heat wave has certainly hit SE Alabama. This is the first day in the past six days that we haven't had a high at or over 100 and a heat index less than 105. It's just 88 now with a heat index of 93, which feels actually pleasant compared to the last week. My ham buddy moved down my way on Memorial Day weekend. He lives 20 miles due west of me. He is now up to almost three inches of rain since he got here. My total is a disappointing 0.17". That's really an amazing difference for just 20 miles but one to keep in mind when people report wildly varying rain totals in just a short distance from each other. Everything is getting completely dried out, and it looks like my lawn could spontaneously burst into flames.

I see the usual cherry picking of models looking for some kind of tropical development is now in full swing. I don't know is this part of a desire to say "saw it first!" or just boredom, but my experience is that I chased a lot of false storms in my earlier days. A real storm is going to be picked up by substantially all the models within 7-10 days of landfall. Every model will show one of these ghost storms occasionally, but it's the agreement of other major models (or lack thereof) that gives us something to hang our hat on. The days of one model sniffing out a storm that all the rest miss is just about over given the increasing model accuracy we've seen over the past five years or so. Right now, regardless of models, conditions just aren't good for anything to form in the next seven days or so.
DMI=Danish Meterological Institute, Greenland is administered by Denmark
112. beell
Quoting 52. 19N81W:

hey where did wunderkid go?


West.
Quoting 78. Sfloridacat5:

I posted this in the earlier blog today, but I'm going to post it again for anyone that missed it.

This year's dry season was one of the wettest in history for South Florida.

Dry Season Stats
The 2015/2016 South Florida dry season was the wettest November through May
since 1957/1958 and the second wettest since recordkeeping began in 1932. Districtwide,
29.49 inches of rain fell, representing 168 percent of average, or 11.98 inches
above average.
Link
Happens almost every time there is a strong El Nino..82-83 was very stormy...Lived aboard a boat on the S.W. Fl coast. Had a 3 day gale...rough weather..
Quoting 68. sar2401:

Thank you everyone for your kind comments on my "return from the lost" post a couple blogs past. I'm actually quite surprised that so many people missed my comments. There are lots of people here way smarter than me. I assume it must be my manly physique and full head of blond hair. :-)

The pre-summer heat wave has certainly hit SE Alabama. This is the first day in the past six days that we haven't had a high at or over 100 and a heat index less than 105. It's just 88 now with a heat index of 93, which feels actually pleasant compared to the last week. My ham buddy moved down my way on Memorial Day weekend. He lives 20 miles due west of me. He is now up to almost three inches of rain since he got here. My total is a disappointing 0.17". That's really an amazing difference for just 20 miles but one to keep in mind when people report wildly varying rain totals in just a short distance from each other. Everything is getting completely dried out, and it looks like my lawn could spontaneously burst into flames.

I see the usual cherry picking of models looking for some kind of tropical development is now in full swing. I don't know is this part of a desire to saw "saw it first!" or just boredom, but my experience is that I chased a lot of false storms in my earlier days. A real storm is going to be picked up by substantially all the models within 7-10 days of landfall. Every model will show one of these ghost storms occasionally, but it's the agreement of other major models (or lack thereof) that gives us something to hang our hat on. The days of one model sniffing out a storm that all the rest miss is just about over given the increasing model accuracy we've seen over the past five years or so. Right now, regardless of models, conditions just aren't good for anything to form in the next seven days or so.


Hey sar glad to see you're back on the blog. I've also always enjoyed your insights and worldly knowledge.
18Z GFS has changed a bit and it is starting to look more like the Euro. The 18Z GFS eventually turns the low that comes off the East Coast to the north like the Euro has been doing for days.
I posted this on the Motley Fool Macro Economics Trends and Risks board. Mostly my interest is how the changing climate will affect the economies of the world, and how I can profit, or at least not get wiped out by the changes.

As we are having a bit of a slow weather day I thought I might point out some of the second tier technologies moving about. While Musk is getting all the Green news now, there are others around. I will point out that even incremental moves can make big differences. The GDI (Gasoline Direct Injection) that started getting wide spread around 2012 has made a big difference. The fuel economy increase for GDI is roughly 20 percent or more. This is a a big deal. Even a 1 or 2 percent reduction in fuel consumption in a fuel guzzling country like the USA makes a big difference.

While I do not hold out a lot of hope for Liquid Piston, the reason are outlined below, I do want to point out that there is a great deal of movement just below the surface.

http://liquidpiston.com/

Liquid Piston finally updates their website. I am a little underwhelmed. My expectations from an alpha version are probably too high. In any case we are looking at roughly 2 pounds per horse power. This is about what a typical snowmobile engine puts out. Unless there is as great deal of room for improvement, or there are some hidden advantages, i.e. low noise, low emissions, long life, or low manufacturing costs, I do not have a lot of hope for the engine to make a big difference in the world.

However, if the underlying math is supported by the engineering it should be interesting. (SEALS! SEALS! SEALS!)

The competition is pretty tough in the new and exotic space. Nissan has revisited an old idea with fuel cells, this idea is an on board reformer. The on board reformer was abandoned about 15 years ago, but Nissan seems to think that the materials science now supports it.

http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/ni ssan-annou...

This is a change because not only is Nissan using and on board reformer and ethanol as a fuel, they are using a SOFC (Solid Oxide Fuel Cell) vice the Toyota PEM fuel cell.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/04/20160419-t oyota.html...

The following link will get you downloaded PDF from Toyota.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/04/20160419-t oyota.html...

Here is a primer on the difference between PEM and SOFC. At least with SOFC Tim could quit whining about no heat.


https://protonex.com/blog/fuel-cell-differences-pe m-and-sofc...

PEM Features

Operates at low temperatures (below 80ºC or 175ºF)
Smaller and less expensive than materials required for SOFC
Stricter fuel requirements (pure hydrogen or similar chemicals)

Want to learn more about PEM fuel cells (especially the kind we make)? Head over to our PEM Fuel Cell Technology page.
Solid Oxide Fuel Cell
PEM and SOFC, Protonex Technology Corporation, Southborough, MA

In a Solid Oxide Fuel cell Oxygen instead flows through the electrolyte to the Hydrogen. This allows for more varied sources of Hydrogen.

Just like with the PEM fuel cell, SOFCs are defined largely by their operating temperature. While the PEM is a warm 175 ºF, it is a candle in the face of the hearth fire of the SOFC, which have operating temperatures of up to 1,000ºC (or 1832ºF). These high temperatures have proved a hurdle for adoption, but it’s also the SOFC’s greatest strength: unlike PEMs which requires fuel like natural gas to be converted to hydrogen before they are able to use it, SOFCs can convert natural gas (and propane, and gasoline, and diesel, and kerosene, and ethanol, and…) into hydrogen internally and are much less sensitive to impurities like sulfur. And as technology produces cheaper and lighter insulators such as ceramics, and better thermal management system are created, SOFCs may outpace PEMs, especial in markets where pure hydrogen is hard to come by.

I am not promoting, predicting, nor encouraging winners and losers here. I am just pointing out that even truly novel and well thought out internal combustion engine technology, technology that could really make a big macro difference is up against significant challenges not only from Muskavites, but from the Fuel Cell proponents as well.

As I am seeing not one but two major car companies throwing really big money at fuel cells, and Mazda the owner of many patents for rotary engines especially the seals on rotary engines can't be seen anywhere near Liquid Piston I have to suspect they do not have a chance.

Cheers
Qazulight
Late good evening, folks! There is probably a severe weather event in the making for central and northeastern Europe tomorrow and Friday. Models were hinting at it for some days already although it's still not clear what will exactly happen with a low that is going to form in the Northern Mediterranean, travelling north across the Alps, leaving copious amounts of rain in several places (first especially in Switzerland and Bavaria) and then may turn into a severe cyclonic storm over the Baltic Sea and adjacent countries. As much as I can see its name should be Karin. There is another low ("Ines") entering the continent from the northwest to boot. In respect to the already very saturated soils and high waters large amounts of rain aren't exactly welcome in most regions, to say the least.

European Storm Forecast Experiment "Estofex" tells the details and even got an extended forecast which happens very rarely.

From the regular one:


Storm Forecast, Valid: Thu 16 Jun 2016 06:00 to Fri 17 Jun 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 15 Jun 2016 21:19, Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER/GATZEN/PUCIK
A level 2 was issued for much of the Alps and the northern and southern Alpine forelands, as well as the Po Valley for all risks, i.e. for large hail, severe winds gusts, very heavy rainfall and also for tornadoes. ...

SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably strong southwest flow is present between an amplified longwave trough over Iberia and a ridge over the Balkans. A shortwave trough embedded within the flow is forecast to approach the Alps during the day. Large-scale upward motion should affect the level 2 area, which should lead to slightly steeping lapse rates, exceptionally strong deep-layer shear, and storm initiation in a number of regions. Strong surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur during the latter half of the period across SE Germany and later the Czech Republic and the German/Polish border region. ....

Read the whole scary stuff here.


The storm getting a cyclonic shape when entering the Baltic Sea on Friday, according to GFS.


Accumulated precipitation until Sunday (GFS; other models got more or less).


This is for tomorrow evening in Bavaria (source and more maps: wetteronline).
118. beell
Current look at this weekend's east coast tropical "area of interest". A shortwave trough cresting the ridge and beginning its track to the southeast.


06/15 18Z NAM 500 mb heights, vorticity-valid 00Z Thursday


06/15 Water Vapor @ 2215Z


06/15 Water Vapor Loop @ 1115-2215Z

The consistent GFS solution of leaving some "energy" at the tail-end of the trough somewhere off the Carolina's/Georgia/Florida coasts to raise a continuing concern has switched over to a more believable and clean exit towards the north or northeast-ish. In line with the more consistent Euro.

There is some support in both models to leave a ribbon of low-level vorticity along the frontal boundary that the disturbance will pull across Florida. Perhaps enough to form a surface wave on the front that may briefly drift over the northeastern gulf coastal waters. Enough to wake up the blob-o-philes? Less than 2%.

ECMWF appears to give us sub-tropical storm Danielle in the Sunday/Monday time frame.


06/15 12Z ECMWF 850 mb temps-valid 12Z Sunday
Still looking "frontal".


06/15 12Z ECMWF 850 mb temps-valid 12Z Monday
Shallow warm-core?
NIce update Barbamz ! There's gonna be a whole lot of severe weather reports on Estofex's map by tomorrow night/after tomorrow for sure... And maybe some strong tornadoes? I like the way forecasters put things there, I really like the whole Estofex project as well. It's quite a fascinating weather setup that's coming over Europe this week-end. I hope damage stays manageable, and no fatalities occur. Good thing is, in France underground water levels are OK because of the rainy spring, able to withstand harsh summer temps. No drought in sight anytime soon here. I wonder ; what are the effects of dust, if any, on thunderstorms activity?
Sploosh...
Al Gore’s Revenge — Internal Combustion Engines Stink and This Ridiculously Powerful Electric Turbine Truck Proves It

As of yesterday, Nikola Motors announced the performance specs and preorders for its new hybrid electric long-haul truck. It’s a ridiculously awesome design — one that boasts across the board superior performance when compared to internal combustion engine based trucks that are currently available. The company producing this amazing feat of electrical hybrid vehicle engineering calls its new vehicle the Nikola One. But we’re going to have some fun at the expense of climate change deniers and electric vehicle detractors both here and call this thing Al Gore’s Revenge.

Link
Al Gore’s Revenge — Internal Combustion Engines Stink and This Ridiculously Powerful Electric Turbine Truck Proves It

As of yesterday, Nikola Motors announced the performance specs and preorders for its new hybrid electric long-haul truck. It’s a ridiculously awesome design — one that boasts across the board superior performance when compared to internal combustion engine based trucks that are currently available. The company producing this amazing feat of electrical hybrid vehicle engineering calls its new vehicle the Nikola One. But we’re going to have some fun at the expense of climate change deniers and electric vehicle detractors both here and call this thing Al Gore’s Revenge.

Link
Al Gore’s Revenge — Internal Combustion Engines Stink and This Ridiculously Powerful Electric Turbine Truck Proves It

As of yesterday, Nikola Motors announced the performance specs and preorders for its new hybrid electric long-haul truck. It’s a ridiculously awesome design — one that boasts across the board superior performance when compared to internal combustion engine based trucks that are currently available. The company producing this amazing feat of electrical hybrid vehicle engineering calls its new vehicle the Nikola One. But we’re going to have some fun at the expense of climate change deniers and electric vehicle detractors both here and call this thing Al Gore’s Revenge.

Link
Quoting 112. beell:



West.


Now that's funny.
Quoting 119. 999Ai2016:

Good thing is, in France underground water levels are good because of the rainy spring, able to withstand harsh summer temps. No drought in sight anytime soon here.

Some weeks earlier I've bought a bunch of sunblinds to protect my rooms (no a/c) from a summer heat like the one we've got last year. So this summer should be a wet and cool one for sure ;-)

Quoting 119. 999Ai2016:

I wonder what are the effects of dust, if any, on thunderstorms activity


Yeah, saw that earlier posts about the upcoming SAL event. Maybe the deluge will be a "bloody" one, umm? ("Blood rains" are rains mixed with sand from Sahara) But according to SKIRON the dust should stay more to the east:



Overall, very interesting weather right now. I'm lucky to have a nice view of the skys above Mainz from my main office. Not good for my employer, though. This afternoon I just couldn't leave the window due to a great show of developing thunderstorms outside, huh.
There's a big entrenched east-west split in terms of temperatures (driven by the Jet?) , good fuel for these thunderstorms. IR loop became clearer once I've read the Estofex synopsis, things look quite dynamic right now.

;-) Red rain... (P. Gabriel)
The Great Russian Heat Wave and the Great Pakistan Floods, always seemed like 2 sisters from Pandora's Box.

Aerosols strengthen storm clouds, lead to extreme weather

Date:
June 13, 2016
Source:
University of Texas at Austin
Summary:
An abundance of aerosol particles in the atmosphere can increase the lifespans of large storm clouds by delaying rainfall, making the clouds grow larger and live longer, and producing more extreme storms, according to new research. The study is the first to address the impact that aerosol particles have on the lifespans of large thunderstorms called mesoscale convective systems.

Link
I like that beell. A tropical system origin track running through Wisconsin!
Dear Justmehouston:

1. In an earlier post, you'd told me that there would be no electrical issues unless the heat started getting REALLY bad. Hate to bug you, but earlier this afternoon, the power blinked twice, the second time nearly going off. Was this heat related? And if so----is this the shape of things to come.


2. Afternoon T-storms are forecast for Houston on Father's Day. Any severe likely?
Have we reached the point where AGW has led us to not allow a normal La-Nina to occur after a record El-Nino? I believe this season shall not be either, but climate gone awry. May lead to record low shear through the Caribbean and Gulf and lead the Atlantic and surrounding basins to a season of 15 plus storms and majors aimed at the mainland. Buckle up now and evacuate when told to.
Place wasn't the same without you Sar.
Quoting 129. DeepSeaRising:

Have we reached the point where AGW has led us to not allow a normal La-Nina to occur after a record El-Nino? I believe this season shall not be either, but climate gone awry. May lead to record low shear through the Caribbean and Gulf and lead the Atlantic and surrounding basins to a season of 15 plus storms and majors aimed at the mainland. Buckle up now and evacuate when told to.

I asked myself this question for a moment ; is this a Modoki rising ? But for the time being, I trust the models more than my worst-case scenarios, regarding this El Nino at least.
13 dead, 13 missing in China rain, landslides
16 June 2016 03:13 (UTC+04:00)
Thirteen people were confirmed dead and 13 others remain missing after heavy rain caused flash floods and landslides in east China's Jiangxi Province, south China's Hunan, Guizhou, Guangdong provinces and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Xinhua reported. ...


Himawari satellite pic of the storm in southeastern China yesterday.

Huge waves batter Bali tourist spots
Liam Croy - The West Australian on June 16, 2016, 5:58 am
Visitors to Bali have been warned about unusually strong and dangerous tides which have battered tourist hot spots in the past two weeks.
Vision has emerged of waves flooding Kuta beach and smashing into Ku De Ta in Seminyak and the Rock Bar in Jimbaran Bay.
Local newspaper Tribun Bali reported two tourists from China and West Java had died after they were swept out to sea at Padang Galak beach in Sanur. ...
The Bali Meteorology, Climate and Geophysics Agency issued a warning two weeks ago about big waves which could continue into mid-June.
An agency spokesman attributed the destructive tides to a combination of the new moon and weather patterns. ...
124. barbamz

Not good for my employer, though. This afternoon I just couldn't leave the window due to a great show of developing thunderstorms outside, huh.

What ever their paying you it ain't enough. So say your legions of fans in the wild wild West.
Sar's back? Clearly doom con infinity. He was always the doom caster for Florida here. Oh wait, no, Sar is the pragmatist with a clanging bell of pesimism of reality to back it up. Contention is not good, may we not be angered quickly and may we have patience and even charity for those who disagree with us. Unless they are trolls, then straight to the gallows. Welcome back Sar. You were missed by many.
Many of us have not liked you much Sar. You were contentious much like myself. We must do better at that. Because we are better than that. Your knowledge is respected greatly, and I respect you much. Your have served your fellow man well. Sar's told us much about himself. He is a good man who would die for others. He is a wealth of information. He and Patrap are equally different, but their common good is the same.
Quoting 133. RobertWC:

124. barbamz

Not good for my employer, though. This afternoon I just couldn't leave the window due to a great show of developing thunderstorms outside, huh.

What ever their paying you it ain't enough. So say your legions of fans in the wild wild West.

My dear sole wild west fan, thanks; here is one of the shots out of my office today:


Edit: Have to go. It's past 2 a.m. in Germany. Stay cool everyone and good night.
Quoting 126. RobertWC:

The Great Russian Heat Wave and the Great Pakistan Floods, always seemed like 2 sisters from Pandora's Box.

Aerosols strengthen storm clouds, lead to extreme weather

Date: June 13, 2016 Source: University of Texas at Austin.
Summary: An abundance of aerosol particles in the atmosphere can increase the lifespans of large storm clouds by delaying rainfall, making the clouds grow larger and live longer, and producing more extreme storms, according to new research. The study is the first to address the impact that aerosol particles have on the lifespans of large thunderstorms called mesoscale convective systems.
Link

What a timely link... and study :-) I guess that answers my question.
(Lucky me I'm on the right side of the Alps, I wouldn't want to be living on the Italian side these days. Right now there are already rain and thunderstorms over my place, what will it be tomorrow on the other side of the mountains...)
Edit : just as I write the second round begins, with heavier rain, stronger winds and louder strikes. Wow, last one was scary, about a kilometer and half / 2km from me.
138. beell
Quoting 123. Bucsboltsfan:



Now that's funny.


Sshhh.
:)
Quoting 89. sar2401:

Thanks. NIce to you, tigger, and all the others as well. The desert is just one of those places you either love or hate. I like the desert but the heat can get pretty overwhelming, just as it can in Alabama or St. Louis. The difference really is the humidity. It's generally tolerable in the shade during the heat of the day on the desert. Not pleasant, but tolerable. If find the combination of heat and humidity much more enerving here, and even being in the shade offers only slight relief. The real killer in the desert is the lack of overnight cooling. Even on the hottest days here it will generally get below 80 for at least a few hours. A place like Phoenix will regularly see lows above 90 during the summer, and lows of 100 aren't unknown.


Just nitpicking but Phoenix's all-time highest low temperature is actually 96 degrees so we haven't ever officially gone a day without going below the century mark although i dont doubt it happening in the future. Death valley has seen lows over 100 numerous times though. Really good information that was just bothering me lol
140. beell
Quoting 127. BaltimoreBrian:

I like that beell. A tropical system origin track running through Wisconsin!


Here it is coming ashore over northern Mexico/southern California on Sunday!



Tuesday Morning!

141. Tcwx2

As the tropical waves get going it appears that if they make it into the Carribean they'll have some favorable conditions. We will see. What latitude does the wave need to get to before they can develop?
It's too freaking hot here in OK (blah).

On another note, seems as if some WU members may have gotten into it in real life ;)

Man charged after fiery argument over whether Earth is flat or round

A woman refused to back down from her assertion that the Earth is flat, and her attitude ultimately pushed her boyfriend's father over the edge.
After attempting to drop several truth bombs about the shape of the planet, the 56-year-old man started throwing items into the fire, including a propane tank.


After 600 years (more or less) the debate still rages. Yes, really.
Quoting 141. Tcwx2:


As the tropical waves get going it appears that if they make it into the Carribean they'll have some favorable conditions. We will see. What latitude does the wave need to get to before they can develop?


ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

...NINTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST OR ABOUT 555
MILES... 890 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION... 9.7 N... 29.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH


for the ones that do not think we can get storms too form be low 10N LATITUDE gust again you can its rare but it can happen this what happen with TD 9 in 2004 wish later be came hurricane ivan and a vary power full storm at that and its the only cat 5 storm that i no of that came from be low 10N latitude ivan was some in too track am this trying too make a point that we can have storms be low the 10N latitude there a lot of you that thinks that it cant happen but it can
Fort McMurray Update

It's been a while. Yes the fire is still burning:



Fort McMurray fire largely contained thanks to rain, firefighters' efforts: After raging out of control for weeks, 'the Beast' is no longer expected to grow
. . . the fire now covers more than 589,617 hectares, with a perimeter of 1,080 kilometres, 82 per cent of the blaze has been contained . . .

And someone could potentially be in trouble:

Fort McMurray wildfire 'likely' result of human activity: RCMP
Fire investigators in Alberta have determined a wildfire that devastated parts of Fort McMurray last month was %u201Cmost likely%u201D the result of human activity.
In a news release, the RCMP said that investigators ruled out lightning as the %u201Cprobable cause%u201D of the wildfire

145. MahFL
Quoting 141. Tcwx2:

We will see. What latitude does the wave need to get to before they can develop?


Normally 9 or 10.
I agree. There are no analog years for 2016. We are in uncharted territory.

Quoting 129. DeepSeaRising:

Have we reached the point where AGW has led us to not allow a normal La-Nina to occur after a record El-Nino? I believe this season shall not be either, but climate gone awry. May lead to record low shear through the Caribbean and Gulf and lead the Atlantic and surrounding basins to a season of 15 plus storms and majors aimed at the mainland. Buckle up now and evacuate when told to.
Quoting 144. daddyjames:

Fort MacMurray Update

It's been a while. Yes the fire is still burning:

Look at the scale of this fire on the map... It leaves me speechless.
148. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA/NASA-Langley though final product not an official product of either they did do 99.99%.
AREA::
Tropical region covered by this Sat imagery, GoMx-Caribbean left in eastern half-COnUS.
D&T:: 2016166.2315.04kmu till 201606-08;2345u
SAT TYPE:: goes13-2 types super-imposed and funktopGal filtered..
NOTE:: DO NOT USE COLOVRKEY as i forgot to overlay the customized SOLID version and left in the translucent version.

Notice the SW heating up...oh its in the blogbytes title...

here 628x448 actual 628x448 - YOUTUBE https://youtu.be/xsV2TROcQJI
Quoting 147. 999Ai2016:


Look at the scale of this fire on the map... It leaves me speechless.


Area: 589,617 hectares = 2276.5 square miles (~ size of Deleware = 2,489 square miles)
Perimeter: 1080 km = 671 miles
Mostly Crap... best wishes RC
Not much talk on the Caribbean disturbance. Guess hopes are low for it to do something?

Regardless, all this early activity, computer models consistently showing disturbances in the long term, and robust tropical waves makes me think it will be at least a little more of an interesting season than in the past several years.
Quoting 142. daddyjames:

It's too freaking hot here in OK (blah).

On another note, seems as if some WU members may have gotten into it in real life ;)

Man charged after fiery argument over whether Earth is flat or round

A woman refused to back down from her assertion that the Earth is flat, and her attitude ultimately pushed her boyfriend's father over the edge.
After attempting to drop several truth bombs about the shape of the planet, the 56-year-old man started throwing items into the fire, including a propane tank.


After 600 years (more or less) the debate still rages. Yes, really.
A propane tank? I would have normally made the assumption that the guy not believing the earth was flat was the smarter of the two. In this case, I'll belay that assumption. :-)
Waidaminit.... Mithought me saw SAR in the blog.?....
Quoting 152. sar2401:

A propane tank? I would have normally made the assumption that the guy not believing the earth was flat was the smarter of the two. In this case, I'll belay that assumption. :-)


LOL - maybe a sign of total utter frustration. With his son or the girlfriend? That remains to be determined.
Quoting 139. AZweather13:



Just nitpicking but Phoenix's all-time highest low temperature is actually 96 degrees so we haven't ever officially gone a day without going below the century mark although i dont doubt it happening in the future. Death valley has seen lows over 100 numerous times though. Really good information that was just bothering me lol
Ah, OK, thanks for the correction. I was kind of guessing about record lows in Phoenix since the daytime temperatures have been so high. As you say, lows in Death Valley stay above 100 for at least a few days almost every summer. I know, I was there for one of those episodes, and the heat at two in the morning was still incredible. It may be that Phoenix's 1,000 foot altitude is just enough to induce nighttime "coolness", relatively speaking.
156. vis0
Quoting 72. sar2401:

It looks like there will be a broad trough of low pressure in the BOC and Gulf until about Monday. There may be a surface low that develops from time time within this trough but any that do develop will be short-lived. Any low in the BOC is likely to hang a left and go into Mexico in the face of the huge high that's going to be parked over the US starting this weekend. The BOC is always worth watching this time of year, but any real development potential is a ways off yet.
[insert] Mexican jumping bean that looks like vis0 [insert]
Quoting 153. BahaHurican:

Waidaminit.... Mithought me saw SAR in the blog.?....
Yes, you did. I have returned from wandering now that cheap travel season has ended. I can now pester all the blog wishcasters instead. :-)
Quoting 156. vis0:

[insert] Mexican jumping bean that looks like vis0 [insert]
Howdy, vis. I actually missed your ruminations over the past couple of months. Now I want a picture of the jumping bean you look like.
Quoting 151. opal92nwf:

Not much talk on the Caribbean disturbance. Guess hopes are low for it to do something?

Regardless, all this early activity, computer models consistently showing disturbances in the long term, and robust tropical waves makes me think it will be at least a little more of an interesting season than in the past several years.
It really doesn't look like anything significant develops before this time nest week in terms of tropical weather. I'd sure take a nice, well behaved tropical storm up here. While you guys in the Panhandle had all that rain from Colin, I got almost nothing. There's an MCS headed south from north Alabama now that's about my last hope for the next 5 days.
160. vis0

Quoting 158. sar2401:

Howdy, vis. I actually missed your ruminations over the past couple of months. Now I want a picture of the jumping bean you look like.
Stay on topic... [taking Sis home to Brooklyn -its ion the siblings contract-  back later]  ...expect to read more on the desert growing around your area, just saw sat of how rain again broke up just over your area.. Will you post a Trop season prediction? even though MAXs pg had to stop taking numbers June 2nd. (reads like a bookie site)
The dryline is on the march -

Midland Radar

Lubbock Radar

This is a pretty strange high, dew points East of Lubbock, this morning were in the low 70's. It made 102F today. The dry line used to be North, South . Now, it's this bow arc from on an axis from Okla, to NW.
It should be hot and dry under this kind of high. Clouds should die under this sky. The clouds march by. I don't know why.

I grew up under the dryline, marching East every spring . In 5th grade I spent 2 weeks at George R. Bean, in the hallways. every afternoon looking at my thing.

Then the storm came , and I was Colorado bound.

My friends said where is Bob ? Bob who they said ? You know . " Colorado Bob" .
Quoting 141. Tcwx2:


As the tropical waves get going it appears that if they make it into the Carribean they'll have some favorable conditions. We will see. What latitude does the wave need to get to before they can develop?
They may very well, but three plus weeks is very far out to forecast shear. Shear is one of the things we don't understand too well, so even short term forecasts can off the rails. At 25 days, you can be pretty sure actual shear will look different than that picture. Waves generally have to get to at least 10 degrees, and preferably 12 or 13 degrees to see development into a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 160. vis0:


Stay on topic... [taking Sis home to Brooklyn -its ion the siblings contract- back later] ...expect to read more on the desert growing around your area, just saw sat of how rain again broke up just over your area.. Will you post a Trop season prediction? even though MAXs pg had to stop taking numbers June 2nd. (reads like a bookie site)

You know, I don't really like doing hurricane season guesses. I really have no skill at it, and things almost always turn out to be different than what I expect. My only thought is that I think we are already entering a multi decade quiet period, and storms, while they may be higher in total this year than the last few, will probably disappoint those making the more optimistic forecasts I've read.

Yes, it's really getting to be a little discouraging watching these storms look good until about 10 miles away and then either split or evaporate. I think Lake Eufaula has something to do with it, especially for storms coming from the west. The MCS coming this way will be headed south, so that gives me hope my cactus garden might get a little water.
Quoting 161. RobertWC:

The dryline is on the march -

Midland Radar

Lubbock Radar

This is a pretty strange high, dew points East of Lubbock, this morning were in the low 70's. It made 102F today. The dry line used to be North, South . Now, it's this bow arc from on an axis from Okla, to NW.
It should be hot and dry under this kind of high. Clouds should die under this sky. The clouds march by. I don't know why.

I grew up under the dryline, marching East every spring . In 5th grade I spent 2 weeks at George R. Bean, in the hallways. every afternoon looking at my thing.

Then the storm came , and I was Colorado bound.

My friends said where is Bob ? Bob who they said ? You know . " Colorado Bob" .



Ok, you spent two weeks in the hallway every afternoon looking at your thing? TMI - don't even wanna know . . . .
Quoting 164. daddyjames:



Ok, you spent two weeks in the hallway every afternoon looking at your thing? TMI - don't even wanna know . . . .


XD
Quoting 157. sar2401:

Yes, you did. I have returned from wandering now that cheap travel season has ended. I can now pester all the blog wishcasters instead. :-)
Sorry you didn't wander my way, but hope you had a good time... you got back just in time for a potentially wild season....
Quoting 135. DeepSeaRising:

Many of us have not liked you much Sar. You were contentious much like myself. We must do better at that. Because we are better than that. Your knowledge is respected greatly, and I respect you much. Your have served your fellow man well. Sar's told us much about himself. He is a good man who would die for others. He is a wealth of information. He and Patrap are equally different, but their common good is the same.
What?!?! There are people here who don't like me??? Well, I never.....

I've always thought you were in big trouble if everyone liked you or everyone hated you. As long as I dwell somewhere in the great middle ground, I'm fine.
Good evening!

It's clear, 83, feeling like 94 here on the island tonight.

Well, look who's back! *waves hi to sar*

Hoping all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Quoting 164. daddyjames:



Ok, you spent two weeks in the hallway every afternoon looking at your thing? TMI - don't even wanna know . . . .


The entire town has never seen a threat in 46 years. The world has changed.
Quoting 164. daddyjames:



Ok, you spent two weeks in the hallway every afternoon looking at your thing? TMI - don't even wanna know . . . .
[whispers] I think Bob had a bit of a wee nip of something...
:-)
Quoting 166. BahaHurican:

Sorry you didn't wander my way, but hope you had a good time... you got back just in time for a potentially wild season....
Yes, we shall see about this season. I had a great time. My cruise only stopped at San Juan and then on to the eastern Caribbean. I was hoping to get one that called at Nassau, but they seem to be pretty much limited to the four day and Disney type cruises. I'm sure there were others, just not in my price range. I almost got a 20 day trip on the railroads of Europe and the Trans-Siberian Express, but the first permutation left from Paris and, after the attacks there and cancellation, the second trip left from Brussels. As you might imagine, that cancelled after the attacks there. People are such chickens. :-)
Quoting 168. LindyVirginIslander:

Good evening!

It's clear, 83, feeling like 94 here on the island tonight.

Well, look who's back! *waves hi to sar*

Hoping all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Hi Lindy. I hope your cisterns are full this year. Never could get a cruise to the Virgin Islands, but I tried.
Quoting 163. sar2401:

You know, I don't really like doing hurricane season guesses. I really have no skill at it, and things almost always turn out to be different than what I expect. My only thought is that I think we are already entering a multi decade quiet period, and storms, while they may be higher in total this year than the last few, will probably disappoint those making the more optimistic forecasts I've read.

Yes, it's really getting to be a little discouraging watching these storms look good until about 10 miles away and then either split or evaporate. I think Lake Eufaula has something to do with it, especially for storms coming from the west. The MCS coming this way will be headed south, so that gives me hope my cactus garden might get a little water.

I honestly don't think we are entering a multi-decade quiet period at all. The AMO value is still strongly positive. Waters in the western Atlantic are like the warmest on record. 2015 had nearly average activity despite one of the strongest El Ninos on record. The cold pool has been shrinking in recent weeks in the North Atlantic. We have already had 3 storms so far this year, including a rare January hurricane. 2013 may have just been a fluke, and 2014 and 2015 suffered from El Nino. Will be interesting to see how 2016 does with neutral/La Nina conditions.
Quoting 167. sar2401:

What?!?! There are people here who don't like me??? Well, I never.....

I've always thought you were in big trouble


Welcome back to the party. And the past Amigo.
Quoting 130. BaltimoreBrian:

Place wasn't the same without you Sar.
Thank you, Brian. I've missed your always interesting lists too.
176. beell
Quoting 164. daddyjames:



Ok, you spent two weeks in the hallway every afternoon looking at your thing? TMI - don't even wanna know . . . .


All I can surmise is a Tornado drill. You know: Get away from the windows/ "head between your knees, kiss your @#$, and say goodby" position.

Not a lot of things to look at in that particular position.
;)
Drylines and things...
Quoting 172. sar2401:

Hi Lindy. I hope your cisterns are full this year. Never could get a cruise to the Virgin Islands, but I tried.


Well, when you do get that cruise this way, we look forward to hosting you guys for a day!

It's really dry here. The island is "browning up". I took a look at the stats and for the month of May we had 1.2 inches of rain and absolutely nothing so far this month.

I believe we are scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to the cistern. Just seems worse this year than any other one I can remember.

-L
Quoting 91. Bucsboltsfan:



If I remember correctly you are from Southern Alabama. I'll be in Dothan next week.
Yes, I am. What days will you be here? Maybe send me an email with the information if you'd like. I'd like to meet for lunch or coffee.
Quoting 176. beell:



All I can surmise is a Tornado drill. You know: Get away from the windows/ "head between your knees, kiss your @#$, and say goodby" position.

Not a lot of things to look at in that particular position.
;)


Thanks. My keyboard needed that wine bath! ;-)
Quoting 178. LindyVirginIslander:



Well, when you do get that cruise this way, we look forward to hosting you guys for a day!

It's really dry here. The island is "browning up". I took a look at the stats and for the month of May we had 1.2 inches of rain and absolutely nothing so far this month.

I believe we are scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to the cistern. Just seems worse this year than any other one I can remember.

-L
Oh, goodness. I was hoping you would have had more rain than me, but it seems like we get in sync on things like that. We both need some tropical systems this summer. Not some terrible storms, just some rainmakers. I know there are people in the Carolinas and in Florida that don't need more rain , but we sure do. Even two three inches would help at this point. The drier the ground gets, the less evaporative moisture available also so it just keeps getting hotter. My soil is mostly sand, and you wouldn't dare try walking barefoot over that now.
Quoting 171. sar2401:

Yes, we shall see about this season. I had a great time. My cruise only stopped at San Juan and then on to the eastern Caribbean. I was hoping to get one that called at Nassau, but they seem to be pretty much limited to the four day and Disney type cruises. I'm sure there were others, just not in my price range. I almost got a 20 day trip on the railroads of Europe and the Trans-Siberian Express, but the first permutation left from Paris and, after the attacks there and cancellation, the second trip left from Brussels. As you might imagine, that cancelled after the attacks there. People are such chickens. :-)
This is actually a pretty decent time for Caribbean cruising... neither too hot or too crowded, and low TC potential to disrupt....
Quoting 176. beell:



All I can surmise is a Tornado drill. You know: Get away from the windows/ "head between your knees, kiss your @#$, and say goodby" position.

Not a lot of things to look at in that particular position.
;)


Oh, I grew up with hurricane drills. We did things differently - this was my dad's plan:



Quoting 182. BahaHurican:

This is actually a pretty decent time for Caribbean cruising... neither too hot or too crowded, and low TC potential to disrupt....
Indeed, I usually risked early to mid-June sailing in the boat as well since the crowds start to evaporate as soon as they hear the phrase "Hurricane Season". One of the reasons the eastern Caribbean cruise was relatively cheap is most cruise lines don't start heading there until deeper in the season.
Quoting 114. DogtownMex:



Hey sar glad to see you're back on the blog. I've also always enjoyed your insights and worldly knowledge.
Thank you, Doggie. How are things in your neck of the woods?
Those signs are in every bar on this island!
sooner are later some in is going too have too give with all this crazy low wind shear out there and i say once it dos we could be in for a vary dangerous hurricane season especially for the USA

right now it is a ticking time bomb this waiting too go off only a matter of time

Quoting 103. Naga5000:



Missed you, Sar. Good to "see" you.
Thanks, good to "see" you too. Are we still playing "Whack-A-Troll" here? :-)
Quoting 176. beell:



All I can surmise is a Tornado drill. You know: Get away from the windows/ "head between your knees, kiss your @#$, and say goodby" position.

Not a lot of things to look at in that particular position.
;)

It was the 50's , it came everyday for 2 weeks, Practice kissing your ass everyday good bye when your 8 years old.
Quoting 186. LindyVirginIslander:

Those signs are in every bar on this island!



LOL - doesn't surprise me. but running away on an island? :)
Quoting 188. sar2401:

Thanks, good to "see" you too. Are we still playing "Whack-A-Troll" here? :-)


Every so often. :)
laffin over here. Guess all we can do is run around in circles......or to the next bar.... ;-)
Quoting 176. beell:

After that , I attended Buddy Holly's burial. To this day, I place black picks on the graves of my love ones.
Hmm...it's looking like a near guarantee that the cyclone currently located over the midwest will move off the U.S. East Coast into the Atlantic. Most likely, it will be non-tropical. But there is a possibility that this system may briefly acquire subtropical characteristics. It could be one of those storms that is not warned upon by the NHC until it becomes a named storm, if that is the case.


195. beell
Quoting 189. RobertWC:


It was the 50's , it came everyday for 2 weeks, Practice kissing your ass everyday good bye when your 8 years old.


I was about that same age for my first one. West central Oklahoma. With Grandpa James at the door of the root cellar. Both of us grinning. His was real, mine had a touch of false bravado.

Close enough to smell fresh Canadian River bottomland and the aromatic fragrance of twisted cedar lofted in the air. Loud enough to drown out the screams of my sister and Grandmother imploring us to get in the cellar and bar the door.

In retrospect, Grandpa made more than an occasional visit to the root cellar to check on the "preserves". Maybe he had a little help with his grin also.
:)
Quoting 193. RobertWC:

Quoting 176. beell:

After that , I attended Buddy Holly's burial. To this day, I place black picks on the graves of my love ones.

Everyday.
Quoting 193. RobertWC:



After that , I attended Buddy Holly's burial. To this day, I place black picks on the graves of my love ones.
Most of your comment at 161 struck me as a poem or lyric. If you add the line quoted here, and "everyday," from 196, the song might be made (as in "complete").
Quoting 102. OKsky:



Its working on my end, but that doesn't rule anything out. It could be something on your side such as a browser glitch or it could be on the server side where a bug is preventing some css from getting dished out. Hard to tell.
Thanks for responding back. When I hover over the space with the number of pluses, I see something like -

"Plused by br/ samspade br/ joeblow..." etc. The "br/" 's are enclosed by left and right arrowheads. If I use them here, my post gets interpreted as actual HTML and puts the names in a vertical column. It's all in a tiny font which my old eyes can't see very well, and strung out horizontally over the page. I remember it as being vertical, same size font as the rest of the blog, and no HTML. I've cleared my cookies and done a CTRL F-5 to flush the buffer but I still see the same thing. Is this how it always looked and I'm just not remembering correctly?
Quoting 199. sar2401:

Thanks for responding back. When I hover over the space with the number of pluses, I see something like -

"Plused by br/ samspade br/ joeblow..." etc. The "br/" 's are enclosed by left and right arrowheads. If I use them here, my post gets interpreted as actual HTML and puts the names in a vertical column. It's all in a tiny font which my old eyes can't see very well, and strung out horizontally over the page. I remember it as being vertical, same size font as the rest of the blog, and no HTML. I've cleared my cookies and done a CTRL F-5 to flush the buffer but I still see the same thing. Is this how it always looked and I'm just not remembering correctly?


No, should just be a vertical list of the names - for some reason you are seeing the HTML code
DMI stands for Danish Meteorological Institute. Sure the Danes are use to being called Dutch, but when it comes to record highs in Greenland, I'm sure they appreciate the credit.
sar2401, I have to clear the cache every couple of weeks lately. Never had to do that before...
Quoting 163. sar2401:

You know, I don't really like doing hurricane season guesses. I really have no skill at it, and things almost always turn out to be different than what I expect. My only thought is that I think we are already entering a multi decade quiet period, and storms, while they may be higher in total this year than the last few, will probably disappoint those making the more optimistic forecasts I've read.

Yes, it's really getting to be a little discouraging watching these storms look good until about 10 miles away and then either split or evaporate. I think Lake Eufaula has something to do with it, especially for storms coming from the west. The MCS coming this way will be headed south, so that gives me hope my cactus garden might get a little water.


Same thing used to happen when I was back in Palm Desert. Would watch TWC local forecast radar, trying to will any rain to our area...but would vanish...and then rain far out east or to the west in the mountains. Obviously for different reasons than where you are, but still the same frustration!

As for 100' temps at night, I remember them in Palm Desert. I have no idea if maybe many of those nights ended up dipping to 98 or 99 though...or if it stayed 100 at any official station even. But I remember being at least 100' at 3am more than a few times.

We've had such a weird monsoonal type flow here the last week or two. Lots of thunderstorms and flooding where they form. Temps have cooled this week at least. We were hitting 90' last week, but that has calmed down and back to reasonable temps. Thunderstorms still going though. I don't think it's so odd in Southern UK, but up here in the north, have been here nearly 16 years, and def not seen so many scattered about daily like this. Been fascinating.

Cool about your discount travels, what a fabulous way to be able to get good deals!
Quoting 178. LindyVirginIslander:



Well, when you do get that cruise this way, we look forward to hosting you guys for a day!

It's really dry here. The island is "browning up". I took a look at the stats and for the month of May we had 1.2 inches of rain and absolutely nothing so far this month.

I believe we are scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to the cistern. Just seems worse this year than any other one I can remember.

-L


Hi Lindy

It's drier than normal on St Barths this year so far, and june had near zero rainfall BUT 2015 was worse.

The last year with at least near normal rainfall was 2012.

2013, 2014, 2015 were all below normal.

Waiting for La Nina!!

Just did my latest blog update on the Atlantic tropics with three treats tonight:

1. Detailed forecast for our midwest frontal cyclone which could still become a subtropical storm offshore of New England in about 5 days.

2. Detailed forecast for the disturbed weather headed toward the Bay of Campeche.

3. I have tried something a little different to better highlight the areas of interest in my atmospheric features charts I regularly post. Let me know what you think.
Welcome back!!!

Quoting 155. sar2401:

Ah, OK, thanks for the correction. I was kind of guessing about record lows in Phoenix since the daytime temperatures have been so high. As you say, lows in Death Valley stay above 100 for at least a few days almost every summer. I know, I was there for one of those episodes, and the heat at two in the morning was still incredible. It may be that Phoenix's 1,000 foot altitude is just enough to induce nighttime "coolness", relatively speaking.
Quoting 155. sar2401:

Ah, OK, thanks for the correction. I was kind of guessing about record lows in Phoenix since the daytime temperatures have been so high. As you say, lows in Death Valley stay above 100 for at least a few days almost every summer. I know, I was there for one of those episodes, and the heat at two in the morning was still incredible. It may be that Phoenix's 1,000 foot altitude is just enough to induce nighttime "coolness", relatively speaking.

All this talk about high lows makes me grateful that I live in region (Willamette Valley of Oregon) where it's rare that the temperature doesn't get down into the 60s overnight. Occasionally in an extreme heat wave the temperatures only drop into the 70s but I'm not sure we've ever had a maximum low over 80.
Hey SAR, do you use NoScript on your machine?
Ped, hit 82f here today. I'm sweating like crazy.

Quoting 209. Dakster:

Ped, hit 82f here today. I'm sweating like crazy.




my low was 61.7@9:06AM, My high was 77.8F, hotter up there....
Temps gonna start going up 6-7 per day till we MELT, Monday is supposed to be 109F

Time to hit the sack, been up since 6:00
212. vis0

Quoting 158. sar2401:

Howdy, vis. I actually missed your ruminations over the past couple of months. Now I want a picture of the jumping bean you look like.
REPLY at my zilly page here this direct autio-scroll 2 link.


Quoting 163. sar2401:

You know, I don't really like doing hurricane season guesses. I really have no skill at it, and things almost always turn out to be different than what I expect. My only thought is that I think we are already entering a multi decade quiet period, and storms, while they may be higher in total this year than the last few, will probably disappoint those making the more optimistic forecasts I've read.

Yes, it's really getting to be a little discouraging watching these storms look good until about 10 miles away and then either split or evaporate. I think Lake Eufaula has something to do with it, especially for storms coming from the west. The MCS coming this way will be headed south, so that gives me hope my cactus garden might get a little water.
AS TO PREDICTIONS AND A NOSTALGIC LOOK AND HOW (i think)  PRESENT GENERATIONS FEEL CHEATED...but careful what ya ask fer::

i wonder (as stated a few months ago) if what use to be "quiet years" pre 1970s (as quiet being 6TS, 3H 1Strong Cane so even if it was a "quiet" year the few images we'd see where of symmetrically perfect TS and 1 hit the USofA or a close by Island. In the end TS Trackers or Wx enthusiast had some "excitement". (of course we all hope no one gets injured and home is intact)

In recent years for whatever reason we are seeing the average amount of TS as 7-10 or even more, but they look like blotches, have internally winds up to 60-70 mph but look like there should not be anything higher than 45-50 mph.  i wonder if the rising heat from the oceans in not being stable  as in reaching its max a plateauing of warmth output  (as in co2 or anything else** that is causing the constant warming) therefore since its all rising at different rates  rotations of to be TS cannot get a LARGE  level area of uniform rising air to create a stable symmetrical spin .  Its as a form of artificially angled shear so even a few miles per hour speeds of shear at so many angles creates chaos within the rotation.

 

 

So if the last few years if they we're exactly like the calm years of my childhood we should have seen (over 3 years) an average of 7TS, 3H, 1strong with an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of ~80-120, instead we saw 11TS (tropical things) , 5H, 1 major ACE of ~70 and 90% of the TS that look symmetrical occurred during what i call "2wkAnom" periods.  So its not that there is no activity but its as if one goes a roller coaster expecting 4 small drops and 2 medium and 2 GIGANTIC drops and instead gets 7 mini (hills) drops, a sudden gust from the side, ice cream from person in front of your seat dripping in your eye and  a bird poops on your nose. Lots of stuff but none exiting.



**else as in electricity's output adds to Earth's rising Hz (higher Hz can carry more "energy" which in time can be released as heat to affecting the brain)(sit down skeptics at most ~20%, co2 (the bigger culprit)  and of course the majekal-device (who cares) and some criminal microwaving activities...all adding to the planet's "fever" and (i state)  forms of ADHD...but i could be 99.9% wrong...the .1% correct? the punctuation marks :-:P.

AS TO THE HOUDINI STORMS::

Weirder as to the storms evaporating just as they arrive at your front steps is how the fire-up (nothing as strong as they where towards the west )  just as they are ~15 miles to your east, its as if there is a moisture demeleculizer around your area.

Hopefully i'm wrong and it will not be 2 or 3 TS that bring too much rainfall, i send you good;luck in the sense that as you show by your comments that its important to be prepared ahead of time.

213. vis0

Quoting 199. sar2401:

Thanks for responding back. When I hover over the space with the number of pluses, I see something like -

"Plused by br/ samspade br/ joeblow..." etc. The "br/" 's are enclosed by left and right arrowheads. If I use them here, my post gets interpreted as actual HTML and puts the names in a vertical column. It's all in a tiny font which my old eyes can't see very well, and strung out horizontally over the page. I remember it as being vertical, same size font as the rest of the blog, and no HTML. I've cleared my cookies and done a CTRL F-5 to flush the buffer but I still see the same thing. Is this how it always looked and I'm just not remembering correctly?
"sounds" like some enumerating is missing the inline elements.  If the browser had updates (especially several without one opening the browser) maybe a conflict...i miss the 'ol days when one could smack or punch a device and it would fix itself.  Now i feel that even looking at the compu'r in a weird way causes it to stall. (vis0 rubbing monitor as vis0 sez 'ya got some sharp pixels')
214. vis0
Its that time of the AM where if 1 of 4 members does not post a cmmnt,  a blog hole of 2-3 hrs forms, hold on to your sideboards as we go back to the feature.

i wonder if the El Nino being so big caused a wrap around (the planet) delayed action that could bring an weird moosoon towards the areas where no "moneterous" rainfall ocurred. (S. Ca. to western Az. ...good for low areas bad for snow pack UNLESS elevations fall/get a cool spell )

or it could be my crazy theory on how what i call the magmasphere creates magnetic :Fronts/Troughs LINES that play on rolling waves in the atmosphere.  These lines act as a sort of memory to influnce nature as to share the weather in a sort of eventually even things out a bit,  NOT a PERFECT TIT FOR TAT but in that once a certain sub atomic magnetic emitting wave passes a certain Long/Latitude lines it trigger a reply in the atmosphere to create more rainy situations for the areas that have been dry for the past 4-5 years. Of course with Earth having a fever the reply will have a better chance of being chaotic as being too wet instead of fairly organized rain showers in where the soil can take in the moisture without erosion.  These extremes have happened before  but they happen in 1 in 50/100/250/500 year patterns not immediate pendulum swings, lets observe.

OKAY once sar2401 read this sar2401s gonna need another globe-trekker vacation.

Raining in Cayman tonight?
Ok good morning The BOC possible system loking good and I give it a 40 percent chance of developing

It looks like ECMWF forms a TD there in the BOC. While the GFS has dropped it, It is long been stored on here that GFS drops storms as you get closer to their formation for some reason. It looks like the convection is no farther north and could have a higher chance at making it into the BoC.
looking for back to back major cyclones over s. florida. yes twins. you know us vulnerable states have to stick together. floridas senator voted against aid for Sandy. south floridians your doomed
219. elioe
Good afternoon. GFS shows a system, that is really trying to become a tropical cyclone... but it can't, since it's just too south to emerge to the Bay of Campeche:

Good Morning. Here is the big picture forecast for Conus today and convective outlook: notice dangerous heat advisory for the Plains as that high pressure dominates behind the front to the West:


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 16 2016 - 12Z Sat Jun 18 2016

...Severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio and
Tennessee valleys, and northern High Plains...

...Heavy rain possible on Thursday across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
region...

...Dangerous heat expected to continue across much of the central/southern
plains and Mississippi valley...



And the current look for Conus and the Western Atlantic tropics:



And finally the high temp forecast for the Plans at 5:00 pm; in the 90's pretty much across the entire area and then some:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

The 8:00 am update; looks like little chance of a storm in the BOC:


Good morning! Jetstream is already busy to push moist tropical airmasses over the Alps into Central Europe, and thunderstorms began to fire in the last hour. Weather discussions of our official professionals are lengthy due to the complicated pattern evolving, and no one dares to say what's going to happen in the next 24h or what won't happen as they don't wanna look stupid afterwards - openly admitted in that way in the official German forecast this morning, lol.


Current IR loop.


Current jetstream. Source.


Thunderstorms popping up in France.


Current temps (updating). Boy, as I write this: 46C = 115F at the coast of Libya, and this heat is pushed northeast.
Quoting 155. sar2401:
Ah, OK, thanks for the correction. I was kind of guessing about record lows in Phoenix since the daytime temperatures have been so high. As you say, lows in Death Valley stay above 100 for at least a few days almost every summer. I know, I was there for one of those episodes...

The climate data for Stovepipe Wells only suggests about a 50% chance in any given year that the highest minimum will be above 100F on at least 1 day. For Cow Creek it's about 25%. For the Furance Creek/Death Vally site (longest period of record) it's about a 36% chance. The statistics are dominated by years with no lows over 100, then a year here and there with many, sometimes 3-6.
When looking at any particular day in July, there is about a 2% chance of having a low over 100F.
226. beell
Good afternoon ! About 50 mm of rain last night around my place, thunderstorms and a show of lightnings all night, brief respite now, but still raining... Rivers rising, already a yellow watch in effect for parts of Alpine river basins on the French side.
Lol the mets they're puzzled at the situation... 8-/ Precip forecasts for Switzerland are rather worrying, we'll see how this ends up. Next 24 h per the GFS :

And MeteoSwiss reads like this today :
Danger region : Rheinwald
Rain High danger Level 4
Validity: 16.06.2016, 00:00 - 17.06.2016, 08:00
Warning information: Continuous rain with 80 to 120 mm. All altitude levels.
BTW, Germany got a new HD radar site for stormtracking, similar to the ones available in the US. As the founder of the site doesn't allow to post the pics, below the link. Click the map to enlarge or click the circled storms to get informations of their future track:

http://kachelmannwetter.com/de/stormtracking/deut schland/
I always got yelled at. "Haole, head between YOUR knees."

Was never good with direction.

Quoting 176. beell:



All I can surmise is a Tornado drill. You know: Get away from the windows/ "head between your knees, kiss your @#$, and say goodby" position.

Not a lot of things to look at in that particular position.
;)
230. elioe
Earlier there were thunderstorms in the forecast, but now it seems that all we get it rain. 14.1 mm fell between 5 a.m. and 2 p.m., with forecast calling for 11.5 mm more before tomorrow morning. Some locales northeast of me may see more than whole June's worth of rain between last night and next Tuesday. Radar as of 4 p.m. local (1 p.m. UTC), click for animation:

GEOS-5 has been fairly consistent about the storm coming off the east coast and becoming a depression to tropical storm that affects East Georgia and Carolina over the weekend into early next week.
Quoting 224. barbamz:

Good morning! Jetstream is already busy to push moist tropical airmasses over the Alps into Central Europe, and thunderstorms began to fire in the last hour. Weather discussions of our official professionals are lengthy due to the complicated pattern evolving, and no one dares to say what's going to happen in the next 24h or what won't happen as they don't wanna look stupid afterwards - openly admitted in that way in the official German forecast this morning, lol.


Current IR loop.


Current jetstream. Source.


Thunderstorms popping up in France.


Current temps (updating). Boy, as I write this: 46C = 115F at the coast of Libya, and this heat is pushed northeast.


45.8C today at the AWS statioon of Palermo Villagrazia, thanks to strong siroco.
233. OKsky
Quoting 199. sar2401:

Thanks for responding back. When I hover over the space with the number of pluses, I see something like -

"Plused by br/ samspade br/ joeblow..." etc. The "br/" 's are enclosed by left and right arrowheads. If I use them here, my post gets interpreted as actual HTML and puts the names in a vertical column. It's all in a tiny font which my old eyes can't see very well, and strung out horizontally over the page. I remember it as being vertical, same size font as the rest of the blog, and no HTML. I've cleared my cookies and done a CTRL F-5 to flush the buffer but I still see the same thing. Is this how it always looked and I'm just not remembering correctly?


Something you can try is to download a different browser and see if it still happens. If that fixes it, but you want to use your current browser rather than a new one try updating to its latest version and disabling any plug-ins or extensions that you have installed. I have no idea what you use, but I am currently using google chrome without issue.
Not knowing what Im talking about,it looks like the x in the Caribbean should be further north and east from its current location.
Shear or lack of organization has kept anything from developing to significantly for now.
Quoting 234. victoria780:

Not knowing what Im talking about,it looks like the x in the Caribbean should be further north and east from its current location.

That's what I've been thinking.
Morning, afternoon, evening all.
Been hot and humid here in Houston. Heat advisories are being posted.
Things are to return to a more normal next week with the usual 20% chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

As many of you know my son and his girlfriend are on a year long visa in Perth Australia.
They are currently in Port Douglas, QSD with another couple from the states.
They just did a three day dive of the Great Barrier Reef ...cannot wait to see pictures.
It took them a day to get there from Perth, travel by planes, trains, gondola and car ...love that they are having this adventure

Below is a picture of the the smiling group



Quoting 234. victoria780:

Not knowing what Im talking about,it looks like the x in the Caribbean should be further north and east from its current location.


Looks that way to me, too. But these weak 'embryonic' systems can be deceptive. Colin had issues with multiple vortices, and it can be difficult deciding which is most significant. Often, the NHC will put the 'X' in a place with hardly any thunderstorm activity (a 'naked swirl'), when the untrained eye would put it where the heaviest clouds are.

Quoting 234. victoria780:

Not knowing what Im talking about,it looks like the x in the Caribbean should be further north and east from its current location.


Yeah, I can see the spin where the nhc put their x. But I noticed the other spin as well. Don't know what level it is at though. Didn't show up on the 12z vorticity map on any level. Maybe the 15z will be more helpful.
240. MahFL
Quoting 239. AtHomeInTX:



Yeah, I can see the spin where the nhc put their x. But I noticed the other spin as well. Don't know what level it is at though. Didn't show up on the 12z vorticity map on any level. Maybe the 15z will be more helpful.


A nice spin is over water :

Quoting 204. CaribBoy:



Hi Lindy

It's drier than normal on St Barths this year so far, and june had near zero rainfall BUT 2015 was worse.

The last year with at least near normal rainfall was 2012.

2013, 2014, 2015 were all below normal.

Waiting for La Nina!!




It's dry in some parts of Dominica but in the north the rivers are down a little but the rain keeps coming every other day, and the mango crop is the biggest I've ever seen from a VERY wet dry season this year.
The possibility of a low pushing off the Carolina is on the TCFP page so we have to see what happens: however, sheer is quite iffy there at the moment but the Gulf Stream often works magic........................It's a watch and wait at this point.


Combined image of all basins
Quoting 235. washingtonian115:

Shear or lack of organization has kept anything from developing to significantly for now.



But it's only a matter of time. And when that time comes the SST will make a future storm(s) a potentially unforgettable one(s).


93e, according to the this models, originated in the EPAC and "crossed over".

The low forecast to move off the mid-atlantic coast is not looking terribly tropical in the recent model runs. If the NHC suspects that anything may form from it, we should know by today/tomorrow morning as that would be in the 5-day window.

Edit: According to this model (GFDL). The models are initiating over different initial points.
Tied for Record daily LOW here in Acme, Wa 42° sprinkling....just plain nasty out. I guess after all our record high temps we were bound to get a cold spell with this jacked up jet stream. Hope y'all are enjoying your 3 didgit highs in the rest of the country, topped out at 58° yesterday.
246. MahFL
Quoting 243. rmbjoe1954:



But it's only a matter of time. And when that time comes the SST will make a future storm(s) a potentially unforgettable one(s).


Remember it's not just the SST it's the depth of the warm water, the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, which is very high east of the Yucatan and in the loop eddy in the GOM.
And finally......
June update on the Euro is now showing a chance of El-Nino returning later this year and it shows us peaking with these cooler anomalies in July. Folks this is a huge change from a month ago. The likely result of this is the record PDO that we have been experiencing for months now infact really since late 2014.

CFSv2 could score a major victory from a few months ago!!!

A huge change from earlier forecast!
It appears this incredibly strong PDO is raining on La-Nina's parade. Looks like we rebound to neutral and may even see El-Nino late this year or early next year.





For the potential mid-atlantic storm, the GFS is consistent with maintaining non-tropical/subtropical storm through the weekend.
Quoting 248. StormTrackerScott:

June update on the Euro is now showing a chance of El-Nino returning later this year and it shows us peaking with these cooler anomalies in July. Folks this is a huge change from a month ago. The likely result of this is the record PDO that we have been experiencing for months now infact really since late 2014.

CFSv2 could score a major victory from a few months ago!!!

A huge change from earlier forecast!


I'm really anxious to see how "accurate" the ECMWF will be this hurricane season. It has been forecasting above normal pressures across the Atlantic the past 3 hurricane seasons, and has been wrong ever since. Even Phil Klotzbach knows there's some kind of bias in the model.
Quoting 251. tiggerhurricanes2001:


I'm really anxious to see how "accurate" the ECMWF will be this hurricane season. It has been forecasting above normal pressures across the Atlantic the past 3 hurricane seasons, and has been wrong ever since. Even Phil Klotzbach knows there's some kind of bias in the model.


This PDO is really putting the clamps down on any chance of La-Nina being "Officially" classified in the Tri monthlies. Infact values are rising across all the Nino regions above El-Nino thresholds. This is going to be interesting to see how this unfolds the rest of the year as we just had a very strong WWB across Nino 3.4 a few days ago.
Quoting 247. Patrap:

And finally......


Okay I gotta ask ...
And finally what?
Its probably something right in my face ...I'm pretty oblivious ...
Quoting 224. barbamz:

Good morning! Jetstream is already busy to push moist tropical airmasses over the Alps into Central Europe, and thunderstorms began to fire in the last hour. Weather discussions of our official professionals are lengthy due to the complicated pattern evolving, and no one dares to say what's going to happen in the next 24h or what won't happen as they don't wanna look stupid afterwards - openly admitted in that way in the official German forecast this morning, lol.


Current IR loop.


Current jetstream. Source.


Thunderstorms popping up in France.


Current temps (updating). Boy, as I write this: 46C = 115F at the coast of Libya, and this heat is pushed northeast.



I often cynically remark that there are two kinds of convection forecasters

The ones who can't forecast it.

and

The ones who know they can't forecast it.
I said it earlier this year and people on here went ballistic when I said if the PDO doesn't respond to what one would expect during a La-Nina then we could see a return of El-Nino. Infact we have never seen a La-Nina with a PDO of this magnitude.

La-Nina is trying but the resistance at this point maybe just to much for it really get going hence the peak of the cooler anomalies in July. This is very interesting to see considering we are now moving to Late June already.


Quoting 253. StormTrackerScott:



This PDO is really putting the clamps down on any chance of La-Nina being "Officially" classified in the Tri monthlies. Infact values are rising across all the Nino regions above El-Nino thresholds. This is going to be interesting to see how this unfolds the rest of the year as we just had a very strong WWB across Nino 3.4 a few days ago.

But from what I've heard, This current warming is only temporary.
Michael Ventrice
Michael Ventrice – ‏@MJVentrice

Officially in a "Low AAM" state. Last time we were there was June 2015. Indicates the El Nino atmosphere has decayed
Im addition, the IOD has been remaining strongly negative, indicative of a Developing La Nina Pattern. At this point, i still see a La Nina of at least Moderate Strength, but the only inhibiting factor is the Positive strength of the PDO. There isn't an analog (as far as i know) for this year's ENSO. A La Nina in a positive PDO, something we haven't saw in a while.
Michael Ventrice
Michael Ventrice – ‏@MJVentrice

The Indian Ocean dipole has moved into its most negative state when looking at the previous 5 years.
Quoting 257. tiggerhurricanes2001:


But from what I've heard, This current warming is only temporary.
Michael Ventrice
Michael Ventrice – ‏@MJVentrice

Officially in a "Low AAM" state. Last time we were there was June 2015. Indicates the El Nino atmosphere has decayed


I think we are seeing some sort of decoupling that is causing La-Nina not to take hold. This likely the result of this impressive PDO signature across the Pacific. What is interesting is the PDO has strengthened since the decline of El-Nino and this could give a chance for El-Nino to make another run down the road. Something to watch going forward.
Quoting 247. Patrap:

And finally......


I get to the office early by 7 and try to post a few things before I hit work in earnest around nine then check in as I can in-between breaks at work........................Yes; I sometimes put "finally" then think of something else to post. No hogging intended and just love this Blog.......................................... .. :)
Quoting 195. beell:



I was about that same age for my first one. West central Oklahoma. With Grandpa James at the door of the root cellar. Both of us grinning. His was real, mine had a touch of false bravado.

Close enough to smell fresh Canadian River bottomland and the aromatic fragrance of twisted cedar lofted in the air. Loud enough to drown out the screams of my sister and Grandmother imploring us to get in the cellar and bar the door.

In retrospect, Grandpa made more than an occasional visit to the root cellar to check on the "preserves". Maybe he had a little help with his grin also.
:)


A classic way to "preserve" grain in colonial times was to make whiskey out of it.
Quoting 256. StormTrackerScott:

I said it earlier this year and people on here went ballistic when I said if the PDO doesn't respond to what one would expect during a La-Nina then we could see a return of El-Nino. Infact we have never seen a La-Nina with a PDO of this magnitude.

La-Nina is trying but the resistance at this point maybe just to much for it really get going hence the peak of the cooler anomalies in July. This is very interesting to see considering we are now moving to Late June already.





What is interesting in the sea surface anomaly map I posted is the low sea surface anomalies across the MDR. Likely the reason why the CFS and Euro are showing not so ideal conditions across the MDR this Hurricane Season. Likely areas to watch should be the Caribbean and close to home.
Quoting 245. plantmoretrees:

Tied for Record daily LOW here in Acme, Wa 42° sprinkling....just plain nasty out. I guess after all our record high temps we were bound to get a cold spell with this jacked up jet stream. Hope y'all are enjoying your 3 didgit highs in the rest of the country, topped out at 58° yesterday.
That sounds nice from here in Tampa... We've just started our hot and humid period.
vibrant tropical wave in the nw carib. seems to be blossoming
Quoting 139. AZweather13:



Just nitpicking but Phoenix's all-time highest low temperature is actually 96 degrees so we haven't ever officially gone a day without going below the century mark although i dont doubt it happening in the future. Death valley has seen lows over 100 numerous times though. Really good information that was just bothering me lol


For what it's worth the DC local myth that temperatures stay above 90 day and night for several weeks is just that, a myth. DC period of record highest minimum temperature for a single day is 86F. In the 1960s and most of the 1970s, first decades I lived here, lows above 80 did not occur, first one occurred in July 1978 (and of course I had an outdoor job doing nighttime physical work that night). They have become more common in recent decades and we had a streak of 5 consecutive nights above 80 in July 2013. (not our hottest July.. 2011 takes that record and that had a streak of 4 nights well over 80F)


16 86 67 77 -2 0 12 0.00 0.0 0 8.7 17 180 M M 2 21 190
17 89 72 81 1 0 16 0.00 0.0 0 10.0 17 180 M M 3 21 190
18 93 73 83 3 0 18 0.00 0.0 0 8.9 16 200 M M 5 23 250
19 97 79 88 8 0 23 0.24 0.0 0 5.9 18 240 M M 8 38 21 310
20 94 77 86 6 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 4.9 13 180 M M 5 18 15 140
21 99 80 90 10 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 9.1 17 190 M M 2 18 24 210
22 102 83 93 13 0 28 T 0.0 0 5.6 16 340 M M 4 38 21 340
23 102 84 93 13 0 28 0.00 0.0 0 6.4 23 190 M M 6 29 180
24 97 84 91 11 0 26 0.00 0.0 0 6.8 18 330 M M 7 8 23 340
25 93 78 86 6 0 21 0.20 0.0 0 4.3 20 50 M M 7 38 23 40
26 95 76 86 6 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 8.6 17 200 M M 3 24 180
27 93 78 86 6 0 21 0.00 0.0 0 7.9 18 340 M M 5 23 350
28 95 78 87 8 0 22 0.00 0.0 0 7.4 14 180 M M 7 16 190
29 104 80 92 13 0 27 0.00 0.0 0 7.6 22 330 M M 4 18 26 320
30 97 81 89 10 0 24 0.00 0.0 0 7.1 15 10 M M 4 8 21 330
31 99 80 90 11 0 25 0.00 0.0 0 7.1 17 180 M M 5 22 230
================================================= ===============================
Quoting 262. StormTrackerScott:



What is interesting in the sea surface anomaly map I posted is the low sea surface anomalies across the MDR. Likely the reason why the CFS and Euro are showing not so ideal conditions across the MDR this Hurricane Season. Likely areas to watch should be the Caribbean and close to home.


Where would the warmer water come from? I agree that the latest readings indicate maybe more neutral ENSO conditions are possible, but not seeing where there is any warm water to initiate a full-blown El Nino in the future even with any WWB. Seems as if this could be a last gasp?.

I'm "watching" the Atlantic

Quoting 267. Grothar:

I'm "watching" the Atlantic




I'm watching you watching the Atlantic.
269. elioe
Quoting 248. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 could score a major victory from a few months ago!!!


If that were to happen, perhaps someone should create a CFSv3 model, which would be always erroneously initialized with -10 C or so subsurface anomalies in equatorial Atlantic...

I'm still wondering whether there really is a teleconnection between SSTs of Niño regions and equatorial Atlantic, or if it was only made up by CFSv2.
271. elioe
Quoting 267. Grothar:

I'm "watching" the Atlantic


And I'm retreating into Fantasyland...
Quoting 266. daddyjames:



Where would the warmer water come from? I agree that the latest readings indicate maybe more neutral ENSO conditions are possible, but not seeing where there is any warm water to initiate a full-blown El Nino in the future even with any WWB. Seems as if this could be a last gasp?.




Reminding me of 2014 where we had record sub sea surface anomalies but never really made it to the surface. I said these several months ago that if the state of this record PDO doesn't change then La-Nina will have a hard time occurring. Infact what is more interesting with what you are showing below is that warm pool sub surface early next year. Either way El-Nino appears it wants to make a comeback either later this year or next year.

As I have stated before we have never seen such a PDO of this insane magnitude with any La-Nina event.
274. elioe
Are my eyes wishcasting for me, or does somebody see the following: As the high convection goes away temporarily, it reveals a low-level spin halfway between Grand Cayman and Mexico/Belize border, moving slowly to W or NW ?

Quoting 266. daddyjames:



Where would the warmer water come from? I agree that the latest readings indicate maybe more neutral ENSO conditions are possible, but not seeing where there is any warm water to initiate a full-blown El Nino in the future even with any WWB. Seems as if this could be a last gasp?.




It wouldn't. One change in the ECMWF forecast doesn't mean the La Nina is suddenly done for.
Quoting 259. StormTrackerScott:



I think we are seeing some sort of decoupling that is causing La-Nina not to take hold. This likely the result of this impressive PDO signature across the Pacific. What is interesting is the PDO has strengthened since the decline of El-Nino and this could give a chance for El-Nino to make another run down the road. Something to watch going forward.
Only if by "down the road", you mean several years hence. The recent El Nino is deader than dead; Nino indices are down, and subsurface temperatures continue their below-normal ways, even extending to the surface across the eastern Pacific. The oceans are now busy storing massive amounts of heat energy deep below, energy that'll be released during the next El Nino sometime a few years from now--not anytime soon.
Quoting 275. CybrTeddy:



It wouldn't. One change in the ECMWF forecast doesn't mean the La Nina is done for.


Hard to argue against the PDO. This PDO maybe in partly responsible to all these troughs amplifying across the Eastern US this Spring as it appears another amplification is on the way this weekend. Chances of La-Nina occurring in the Tri monthlies are declining now. Were getting later and later into the year and we still have values creeping up into El-Nino territory.
Quoting 273. Grothar:




That model has been saying this for months now and has been wrong every month. LOL we are @ .6C @ nino 3.4 according to the CDAS graphs.
The el nino is dead dude XD.It has had its run and the north east and west pacific basins being as quiet as they've been are indicative of that.
Resistance is FUTILE....
283. MahFL
A spin with convection catching up to it :

.
XXL/AOI/XX
Quoting 280. StormTrackerScott:



That model has been saying this for months now and has been wrong every month. LOL we are @ .6C @ nino 3.4 according to the CDAS graphs.


I don't know how it can be wrong, when it hasn't happened yet. That graph is for March, April, May of 2017/

This is the forecast for June, July and August 2016 which is right on. These have been extremely accurate models

Quoting 282. PedleyCA:

Resistance is FUTILE....
Quoting 259. StormTrackerScott:



I think we are seeing some sort of decoupling that is causing La-Nina not to take hold. This likely the result of this impressive PDO signature across the Pacific. What is interesting is the PDO has strengthened since the decline of El-Nino and this could give a chance for El-Nino to make another run down the road. Something to watch going forward.


The highly positive PDO is going to make things interesting all by itself. Esp. in coming winters. Not clear on any connection to ENSO. CFSv2 Nino forcasts for late this year were due to a gross bug in the initialization, now corrected.

2016 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic



East Pacific


green ball93E.INVEST



Central Pacific



West Pacific



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice Jun 15
Big trade surge in the forecast over the central-eastern Pacific during the upcoming two weeks due to MJO activity.
Quoting 280. StormTrackerScott:



That model has been saying this for months now and has been wrong every month. LOL we are @ .6C @ nino 3.4 according to the CDAS graphs.

According to the CPC we are only at +0.0C. But I do agree that this +PDO will likely limit the strength of the coming Nuna.




May 2016 El Niño/ La Niña Update


On the surface, the Central Pacific is still quite warmer than average, indicative of the El Niño that has persisted for the past year. Below the surface, however, a large area of cooler than average water is moving to the east and closer to the surface, as shown in this animated GIF using the NOAA GODAS ocean temperature data.

Quoting 280. StormTrackerScott:



That model has been saying this for months now and has been wrong every month. LOL we are @ .6C @ nino 3.4 according to the CDAS graphs.


Not sure you are comparing apples to oranges there . . .

What may be difficult to discern is the effects of the overall trend of sea-surface temperatures in general. I like this figure as it shows the events and the upward trend of sea surface temperatures over the last decade. Not to be considered an endorsement of the site . . .




Addendum: forgot to remove the @#$@%@$ "s" from https. ;)
that didnt last long......so much for our rainy season...
Quoting 262. StormTrackerScott:



What is interesting in the sea surface anomaly map I posted is the low sea surface anomalies across the MDR. Likely the reason why the CFS and Euro are showing not so ideal conditions across the MDR this Hurricane Season. Likely areas to watch should be the Caribbean and close to home.
SST ANOMALIES JUNE 2016
The GFS shows a nice fetch of moisture in the BOC but never closes off a low.How ever given the past few incidents where we have seen storms spin up from practically no where I say the odds are probably at 40% that we could see a T.D or short lived Tropical storm
Quoting 292. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





May 2016 El Niño/ La Niña Update


On the surface, the Central Pacific is still quite warmer than average, indicative of the El Niño that has persisted for the past year. Below the surface, however, a large area of cooler than average water is moving to the east and closer to the surface, as shown in this animated GIF using the NOAA GODAS ocean temperature data.




That is a fantastic graphic, Keeper.


maybe two aoi areas nw carb/lower windward islands towards trinny
Quoting 299. Naga5000:



That is a fantastic graphic, Keeper.
link for it is here lots of neat stuff if ur computer can handle the load envir vis lab noaa

Link


Quoting 301. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

link for it is here lots of neat stuff if ur computer can handle the load envir vis lab noaa

Link


Thanks!
Read more about this phenomenon at Climate.gov, and explore the latest sea surface temperature anomaly data in NOAA View's Global Data Explorer.





global data explore is a full screen app
304. elioe
If there's really a concentrated spin in the NW Caribbean, travelling to the north of the bulk of the disturbance, it would be remarkably similar to this: (edit: nevermind, the linking doesn't work since the site interprets part of address as a special character)

305. Ed22
Quoting 238. yonzabam:



Looks that way to me, too. But these weak 'embryonic' systems can be deceptive. Colin had issues with multiple vortices, and it can be difficult deciding which is most significant. Often, the NHC will put the 'X' in a place with hardly any thunderstorm activity (a 'naked swirl'), when the untrained eye would put it where the heaviest clouds are.


I believe that the low level spin is off the coast of Honduras moving slowly West-Northwest at about 5 to 10 mph... The LLC is located about 85.5 west and 18.0 north, the percentage could increase to about 30% in 48hours and 50% in 126hours... Showers and thunderstorms are blossoming nicely and organising too, let see what NHC will do at 1pm...
It is amazing that here on the blog all these models and other post...we never see a simple surface map.
Quoting 249. StormTrackerScott:

It appears this incredibly strong PDO is raining on La-Nina's parade. Looks like we rebound to neutral and may even see El-Nino late this year or early next year.



I doubt we will see El Niño this year with the giant cold pool in the Subsurface pacific although I don't see La Niña being very strong either with the PDO being so positive
Quoting 306. Patrap:

It is amazing that here on the blog all these models and other post...we never see a simple surface map.


I bet quite a few people do not know where to find it.
I look for it in the NHC discussion.
Quoting 279. StormTrackerScott:



Hard to argue against the PDO. This PDO maybe in partly responsible to all these troughs amplifying across the Eastern US this Spring as it appears another amplification is on the way this weekend. Chances of La-Nina occurring in the Tri monthlies are declining now. Were getting later and later into the year and we still have values creeping up into El-Nino territory.


The PDO is hanging in there, but it is weakening . . .

A comparison of the current El Nino with past El Nino events suggest you may be jumping the gun, give it a few more weeks and we'll have a better idea of where we may be headed . . .

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over Honduras, Nicaragua, and the adjacent
waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a broad area
of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorm activity.
Although thunderstorm activity has increased somewhat over the
northwestern Caribbean today, there is no evidence of a surface
circulation in the area. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur due to interaction with land while the
system moves west-northwestward around 10 mph toward the Bay of
Campeche over the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Quoting 280. StormTrackerScott:



That model has been saying this for months now and has been wrong every month. LOL we are @ .6C @ nino 3.4 according to the CDAS graphs.


The map appears to be a proxy forecast for ONIs which are three-month averages. To quote a single-daily anomaly and then state that models which are forecasting three-month anomalies are way off is to compare apples to oranges. It's akin to wobble-watching a hurricane between NHC forecast points.
London weather: Severe alerts issued as miserable weather to continue
Evening Standard, June 16.
- Flash floods in London, with photo gallery.

Two tourists die in rough Bali surf while others are almost wiped out by tidal waves
Daily Mail, June 15.
"Nearly 1300 people fled Java's Lumajang and Pekalongan in recent days ahead of forecasted tidal waves along the southern coast of Bali and Sumbawa and the western coast of Sumatra Island."
Link

12z GFS has something in the Gulf and the CV train starting early
Quoting 314. wunderweatherman123:

Link

12z GFS has something in the Gulf and the CV train starting early
Not surprised, looks like once July comes, the robust waves now in June, will have no problem turning into storms.
Wondering if Scott would be commenting if Nino 3.4 was negative?

Scott, El Nino is over. Nino 3.4 is no longer warming.
Hey guys

I see Scott is sturring up the hornets nest again with his El Niño comebacks lol

NW Carib AOI is interesting I say the X should be placed further NE also sfc obs now showing some sort of spin or circulation N-NE of Honduras

Also keep eye out for late June early July and onwards this is when the season should really start to pick up
320. elioe
Quoting 310. Tazmanian:

[...] Although thunderstorm activity has increased somewhat over the
northwestern Caribbean today, there is no evidence of a surface
circulation in the area. [...]


The wording by NHC is curious. I think it implies they can neither rule out the possibility of an existing circulation. But there is definitely evidence of at least intermittent, concentrated vorticity. And if there is a circulation center associated with that, it will be near Cozumel around 6 a.m. UTC at current motion.
your back

Quoting 319. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys

I see Scott is sturring up the hornets nest again with his El Niño comebacks lol

NW Carib AOI is interesting I say the X should be placed further NE also sfc obs now showing some sort of spin or circulation N-NE of Honduras

Also keep eye out for late June early July and onwards this is when the season should really start to pick up
The African wave train started several weeks ago but waiting for the Atlantic tropics to catch up................


Satellite Image
Quoting 235. washingtonian115:

Shear or lack of organization has kept anything from developing to significantly for now.

So far for now, no storm has directly went over that immense warm water, Colin went around the warm water, and it looks like this potential BOC storm won't take advantage of it either.
Quoting 320. elioe:



The wording by NHC is curious. I think it implies they can neither rule out the possibility of an existing circulation. But there is definitely evidence of at least intermittent, concentrated vorticity. And if there is a circulation center associated with that, it will be near Cozumel around 6 a.m. UTC at current motion.

10% seems way too conservative for the development chances of this system IMO. I'd say 10/30 would be better.
328. IDTH


Credit : Zack Labe.
Quoting 328. IDTH:



The best analog for this system would be Tropical Storm Barry from 2013.
331. beell
Quoting 261. georgevandenberghe:



A classic way to "preserve" grain in colonial times was to make whiskey out of it.


No distillery on the homestead as far as I know.

The trip to the sod covered root cellar to "check the preserves" was always coupled with a wink from Grandpa and a scowl from Grandma. Not all the fruit harvest was canned. Some of it was bottled!

This is a fancy example (Grandpa could spell better),


Quoting 318. CaribBoy:




Finally you may have something heading you way during the first full week in July it's quite possible it just may stay S of you as it explodes passing through the Caribbean at least you will get some decent rain... Anyway just wait and see for time being we got about 1 and a half weeks to wait to see if it will actually happen

Quoting 321. 19N81W:

your back




Hey yes I am

I've been enjoying the rains we've been having over past couple of weeks I don't know about u how have you been with the much need rain

Quoting 327. HurricaneFan:


10% seems way too conservative for the development chances of this system IMO. I'd say 10/30 would be better.


Agree somewhat

ATM I'd put it at 20/40
Quoting 332. wunderkidcayman:



Finally you may have something heading you way during the first full week in July it's quite possible it just may stay S of you as it explodes passing through the Caribbean at least you will get some decent rain... Anyway just wait and see for time being we got about 1 and a half weeks to wait to see if it will actually happen



Hey yes I am

I've been enjoying the rains we've been having over past couple of weeks I don't know about u how have you been with the much need rain



Agree somewhat

ATM I'd put it at 20/40


care full what you wish for from the look at the GFS that shows a mod too strong hurricane
Quoting 318. CaribBoy:


Mite be the first storm that gets into that warm pool of water near the western Caribbean as long as it sits low enough it could be that potential to make some noise in the Atlantic.
Quoting 334. bigwes6844:

Mite be the first storm that gets into that warm pool of water near the western Caribbean as long as it sits low enough it could be that potential to make some noise in the Atlantic.


and that looks like too be a major hurricane
well no doubt we have had some rain but it seems certain areas of the island are getting more than others....
but yes it has rained a bit....would like a multi day event though to give us a true soaking
no storms please its not what we need

Quoting 332. wunderkidcayman:



Finally you may have something heading you way during the first full week in July it's quite possible it just may stay S of you as it explodes passing through the Caribbean at least you will get some decent rain... Anyway just wait and see for time being we got about 1 and a half weeks to wait to see if it will actually happen



Hey yes I am

I've been enjoying the rains we've been having over past couple of weeks I don't know about u how have you been with the much need rain



Agree somewhat

ATM I'd put it at 20/40
337. elioe
Quoting 327. HurricaneFan:


10% seems way too conservative for the development chances of this system IMO. I'd say 10/30 would be better.

Quoting 332. wunderkidcayman:

Agree somewhat

ATM I'd put it at 20/40


I may be crazy... but I say 50/70. Quintana Roo may be in for a windy surprise, if there is a circulation center already hiding beneath convection. I believe there is, in which case the only thing needed is for the convection to persist for a few hours.
i think 93E will be come a weak TD this like TD one was

i wounder how many TD it will take for us too get are 1st named storm in the E PAC
Quoting 335. Tazmanian:



and that looks like too be a major hurricane
it will be serious if it passes up the islands and keep that latitude and hits that warm TCHP. Then we could be talking about something serious!
Quoting 334. bigwes6844:

Mite be the first storm that gets into that warm pool of water near the western Caribbean as long as it sits low enough it could be that potential to make some noise in the Atlantic.
If we get a early July storm there, the most recent one being Chantal, and it is not flying down the Atlantic at very fast speeds, and it does make into that in that general area like Chantal, it could be interesting.
the way the E PAC been going and since we are on june 16th with out a named storm there year i think they will be lucky if they can get too 5 too 7 named storms at all this season at the rate they are going we may not even see no named storms there
Quoting 340. Climate175:

If we get a early July storm there, the most recent one being Chantal, and it is not flying down the Atlantic at very fast speeds, and it does make into that in that general area like Chantal, it could be interesting.


and too add wind shear is march lower in all area then in past year so when we had chantal, it was a shear storm i think
For entertainment here's the full basin look at 384 hours (16 days in advance). You can guarantee this will not be accurate even when looking for general development patterns.

Two lows in the Atlantic and one in the GOM.
Quoting 344. Sfloridacat5:

For entertainment here's the full basin look at 384 hours (16 days in advance). You can guarantee this will not be accurate even when looking for general development patterns.

Two lows in the Atlantic and one in the GOM.



and it looks like after 93E it looks like all the way out too july 2nd not march if any named storm for the E PAC on the GFS WOW and the 1st 2 day of july
Quoting 344. Sfloridacat5:

For entertainment here's the full basin look at 384 hours (16 days in advance). You can guarantee this will not be accurate even when looking for general development patterns.

Two lows in the Atlantic and one in the GOM.

Thats a strong High!
Quoting 344. Sfloridacat5:

For entertainment here's the full basin look at 384 hours (16 days in advance). You can guarantee this will not be accurate even when looking for general development patterns.

Two lows in the Atlantic and one in the GOM.

Boy if that setup is there all summer long the Caribbean and gulf is gonna be open for business big time! That high looks like its saying Ill stay here for a couple of months.
Quoting 347. bigwes6844:

Boy if that setup is there all summer long the Caribbean and gulf is gonna be open for business big time! That high looks like its saying Ill stay here for a couple of months.


DOOM i say where all DOOM
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
A current digital and visual portrait of cloudless high pressure heat across a large portion of the US:


351. vis0

Quoting 248. StormTrackerScott:

June update on the Euro is now showing a chance of El-Nino returning later this year and it shows us peaking with these cooler anomalies in July. Folks this is a huge change from a month ago. The likely result of this is the record PDO that we have been experiencing for months now infact really since late 2014.

CFSv2 could score a major victory from a few months ago!!!

A huge change from earlier forecast!

reply on my zilly blog pg9 here - its there not here cause i'm told it involves imaginary devices that influence weather.
352. vis0
If Grothar is watching the Ohio towards Virginia/Delaware.  spin as its coming off the DC "coast", i wonder what Grothar or any WxU blog veteran thinks (if there where no models to refer to)
353. vis0
Quoting 306. Patrap:

It is amazing that here on the blog all these models and other post...we never see a simple surface map.
could not find 1** ...BUT DID FIND THIS::
  (click to view actual size on 2 monitors)
[you-mur] Its a map of the places sar2401 visited (read back, noticed sar2401 was back on a day or two before i knew typing of his grand voyage... HOW COULD YOU (to sar2401) after all we've been through...we've been through weird bans, surfed through Monday morning black hole blog days, both still use old windows versions (still have to crank the phone to get onto the interweb),  have dogs named radar (so WHAT if mine is imaginary)[/you-mur]

**actually know of 6 including my fav (if i could load it) a entire world surface map over 12MB