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U.S. Has its Warmest Winter on Record; Major Deluge Coming to TX, AR, LA

By: Jeff Masters 5:31 PM GMT on March 08, 2016

The contiguous U.S. just experienced its warmest winter on record, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information on Tuesday, with the three-month meteorological winter period of December 2015 through February 2016 coming in tops for the 121-year period of record that began in 1895. Every state had above-average temperatures, and 36 states had a top-ten warmest winter on record. The most notable warmth was in the Northeast, where all of New England had their warmest winter on record. The record-warm U.S. winter was made possible by very warm conditions in December and February: December 2015 was the warmest December on record for the contiguous U.S., and February 2016 was the 6th warmest February. January 2016 was a bit cooler, ranking as the 33rd warmest January. NOAA will release its winter temperature rankings for the entire globe on March 17. I expect that we will see Earth set a new record for warmest winter on record globally, since December 2015 and January 2016 were the two warmest months in recorded history (expressed as a departure from average.) The record warmth is due to the steady accumulation of heat-trapping gases in Earth's atmosphere due to human activities, plus an extra approximately 10% bump in temperatures due to the slowly waning record-strength El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 1. State-by-state temperature rankings for the winter period December 2015 through February 2016. Every state had above-average temperatures, and 36 states had a top-ten warmest winter on record. The most notable warmth was in the Northeast, where all of New England had their warmest winter in the 121-year period of record. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 2. State-by-state precipitation rankings for the winter period December 2015 through February 2016. Only two states had below-average precipitation, and ten states had a top-ten wettest winter on record. One state--Iowa--had their wettest winter on record. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

Major deluge headed for Arkansas, Louisiana, and East Texas
A large low pressure system (a "cut-off" low) has separated from the jet stream, and will stay parked over the U.S./Mexico border region during much of the week. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will bring up plenty of warm, moisture-laden air from the tropics along the east side of the low, resulting in an extended period of very heavy rains over Arkansas, Louisiana, and East Texas this week. With rainfall amounts in excess of 7" expected over this region, flash flooding will be the main concern this week. By this weekend, when all of this rain has had time to flow into area rivers, expect to see several rivers crest at near-record flood levels. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near average over the Gulf of Mexico, which will keep the amount of moisture available to this week's storms lower than would be the case if SSTs were unusually warm. However, the cut-off low has tapped into a moisture source in the deep tropics over the Eastern Pacific where SSTs are record warm. An "atmospheric river" of water vapor can be seen on satellite images extending from the record-warm waters south of Mexico directly into the Southern U.S. (Figure 3.) This warm, moist air will be very unstable, helping contribute to severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes over the Southern U.S. today through Thursday. As of noon EST Tuesday, one tornado had been reported in Texas, along with fourteen reports of severe thunderstorm winds.


Figure 3. Satellite-derived Integrated Water Vapor (the total amount of rain, in centimeters, that would result from condensing all water vapor in a column of air) as of 8:55 am EST March 8, 2016. Two "atmospheric rivers" of water vapor are seen affecting the U.S.--one from the Eastern Pacific flowing across Mexico into the Southern U.S., and one extending from the tropics past Hawaii towards the coast of California. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 3-day period ending 7 am EST Friday, March 11, 2016. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok!
a hard rains gonna fall

thanks for update
This is one LONG NWS discussion fer sure.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1022 am CST Tuesday Mar 8 2016


(snip... )


Short term...

Strong onshore flow will persist through the day as a low pressure
system continues to slowly move into Texas and a ridge of high
pressure remains parked over the eastern Seaboard. This strong
onshore flow of 15 to 20 miles per hour will continue to pump a deep layer of
Gulf moisture into the forecast area...with mixing ratios rising
from 11 g/kg this morning to 13 g/kg by this evening. Precipitable water values
will also increase a good half an inch through the day. This
moisture will continue to keep mostly cloudy skies in place
through the day...and will also allow temperatures to remain very
mild with daytime highs rising back into the middle to upper 70s.
These warmer temperatures at the surface...combined with a
complete erosion of the cap aloft and improving lapse rates of
around 6.0 c/km should allow cape values to climb to around 1000
j/kg this afternoon. Once the convective temperature in the upper
70s is reached this afternoon...some scattered convection should
develop. Moisture convergence and forcing aloft should be most
significant over the northwest part of the County Warning Area...and have high
end chance of around 50 percent in place for this area this
afternoon. There is some directional and speed shear in place...so
a few strong to possibly severe storms could form. The highest
risk of storms will be closer to the Atchafalaya basin.

Little change in the ongoing pattern is expected for
tomorrow...and a general repeat of the same conditions is
expected with higher rain chances over the western third of the
County Warning Area. The biggest change from today is that severe parameters look
a bit more favorable...especially for areas west of the Interstate
55 corridor including metropolitan Baton Rouge and the river parishes.
Model soundings indicate that total shear values around Baton
Rouge could exceed 100 knots and storm relative helicity values
could exceed 300 m2/s2. Additionally...lapse rates look to be
slightly steeper and cape values could be closer to 1500 j/kg
during the afternoon hours. A few supercell type thunderstorms
could be possible during the afternoon hours on Wednesday for the
far western zones. Farther to the east...directional shear will
still be impressive...but overall instability and speed shear
values will be much lower. Thus...the threat of severe
thunderstorm development will be significantly lower for the
Mississippi Gulf Coast. A more marginal risk is expected for metropolitan
New Orleans. Temperatures will once again easily climb into the
middle and upper 70s on Wednesday.
Thanks Doc.Winter was a quick passer by.He step in every once in a wild just to pull a mean prank on Spring and stop its advancement for a short while but Spring reigned supreme this "winter" and is now in full force.


Note the south winds rolling N from the GOM.

Gusting to 23 mph here currently.

Thank You Dr.

On the record-warm winter for the US, we have crossed the Rubicon into a demonstrably warming world and will continue to see some of the most notable effects in the Northern Hemisphere as forecast several years ago by several scientists (as related to Arctic melt).

On the current low perched on the Texas-Mexico border, here it is:




Juan Carlos Sanchez paddled a kayak with his shoes on a flooded street in Miami Beach last year. Credit Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Seas Are Rising at Fastest Rate in Last 28 Centuries
By JUSTIN GILLISFEB. 22, 2016


The worsening of tidal flooding in American coastal communities is largely a consequence of greenhouse gases from human activity, and the problem will grow far worse in coming decades, scientists reported Monday.

Those emissions, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels, are causing the ocean to rise at the fastest rate since at least the founding of ancient Rome, the scientists said. They added that in the absence of human emissions, the ocean surface would be rising less rapidly and might even be falling.

The increasingly routine tidal flooding is making life miserable in places like Miami Beach; Charleston, S.C.; and Norfolk, Va., even on sunny days.

Continue reading the main story
RELATED COVERAGE

Take a Number: 3.2 Millimeters: A Troubling Rise in Sea LevelNOV. 30, 2015
Study Predicts Antarctica Ice Melt if All Fossil Fuels Are BurnedSEPT. 11, 2015
How to Save a Sinking Coast? Katrina Created a LaboratoryAUG. 7, 2015
Though these types of floods often produce only a foot or two of standing saltwater, they are straining life in many towns by killing lawns and trees, blocking neighborhood streets and clogging storm drains, polluting supplies of freshwater and sometimes stranding entire island communities for hours by overtopping the roads that tie them to the mainland.

Such events are just an early harbinger of the coming damage, the new research suggests.


more...
Seems like I took over sar's duty of posting immediately after a new entry.

Quoting 161. Xyrus2000:



A peak total eclipse will occur over the continental US next year. Greatest extent will be in western Kentucky but the path of totality will pass by Nashville. So if you want to get your country and bluegrass on while saying hi to the king and enjoying an astronomical phenomena, head to Nashville August 21st. :)

Path Of Eclipse


Nashville is still very ignorant of what's going to happen next year. All hotel rooms in Hopkinsville, KY, for example, are already booked for that week. My mother is planning to quit her job so she can devote her full time to astronomy, including the eclipse. We talked yesterday and she reminded me that "you meteorologists are going to be under pressure to get the forecast right that day."

She even bought a couple of websites already. Nerd.
Miami has a new problem today. Turkey point is leaking into Biscayne Bay.

Turkey Point Canals Leaking Into Biscayne Bay
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.....
CFS a little crazy.
CoCoRaHS guy around the corner from me finally reported the last 3 days totals.
03/06/2016 0.03
03/07/2016 0.20
03/08/2016 0.44
Totals : 0.67 in.
edit: this beat the February total of .55"
We needed this. That was a great winter and today is a nice springy day at 67 degrees. Not bad for Wisconsin!
Good Morning Class! Thanks for the update Dr Masters!
Getting lots of sun out in W and C TX, gonna see an explosion of storms later today due to heating, we shall see.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1219 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
All in all.......not to bad! 0.86 for Sun/Monday at mi casa........I will gladly take almost a inch from any storm!



14. Gearsts
1:15 PM EST on March 08, 2016
Its the attack of the cold pools.
It must seem funny to some that we from Soo Cal are "very happy" with 1/2" or 3/4" or 1" of rain but a 1" storm is like 10% of our yearly rainfall!
Downwelling Kelvin Wave appears to be happening near the Dateline as cooler subsurface waters begin to vanish. This is going to be interesting going forward and the CFS may have a huge win with its forecast if this keeps up. Eric Blake's twitter page has this animated and wow just watch how the cool subsurface waters go poof!

Also anyone disputing the CFS may need to refer to what is happening across the Equatorial Indian Ocean as there is surge in Westerly Ocean currents moving toward Africa which may induce a +IOD down the road. All of this plays well with the CFS which shows a environment conduce for El-Nino to re-intensify this Summer.

Quoting 24. StormTrackerScott:

Scott read my comment below.
And the snow keeps a coming......many totals up top of between 100" and 150"

Link
Quoting 11. Dakster:

Miami has a new problem today. Turkey point is leaking into Biscayne Bay.

Turkey Point Canals Leaking Into Biscayne Bay

As you and I both know, South Florida has been so lucky in regards to Turkey Point - a nuclear plant that could not be situated in a worse location. Unbelievable that it has survived unscathed all these years from any storms.
Quoting 25. Gearsts:

Scott read my comment below.


I see what your saying but I think the CFS maybe seeing what's going on across the Indian Ocean in how it relates to IOD implications several months from now.

Look at the dynamics.
And last but not least, Shasta Lake is up to 1011' elevation with only 57' more needed to be full! Lake is rising 3 feet per day currently!
Quoting 29. Andrebrooks:


Look at the dynamics.


Them dynamics are Dineomite!
32. vis0
Patrap after i used the SAVE (button) feature and refreshed the zoom stayed at the 150% i had it before refreshing. Be it i can not see more than 1 radar image as am on 56k and it would take 30 minutes to fully load.
 
Here what i posted in reply to your request we try refusing::
 

(last Dr. Masters-Mr. Henson blogbyte) Quoting 174. Patrap:

ZOOM the radar here, and then refresh the page and tell me what happens.


would like to try it  IN FULL but being on a slow connection i'm lucky if i see 1 image or the upper half of 2 radar images.
 
Patrap have you tried to use the SAVE SETTINGS feature, lower left under ANIMATE with the dark gray framing?
 
Some web browsers or browser settings might cut off some edge of frame choices (usually at the bottom (why i sent WxU a note when they asked we check out their new site design last year that please add choices on the top or include instructions to click center mouse wheel and see if off the frame settings scroll into view when scrolling upward.
This also happens when settings are used for the handicapped i've asked browser companies to a some flashing line when there is more selection hidden in this undesired manner, therefore when one sees a flashing border(line) one scrolls in that direction to reveal more hidden selections)
GEOS-5 March outlook for March precipitation anomaly mid-country looks ever bit as doom as the last two months' outlook of it. West coast is looking at a very wet month. After which the precipitation drops to average or slightly above average through August. Florida is left on the dry side in the months ahead.
Quoting 31. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Them dynamics are Dineomite!
I wonder when the Flash flood watches will be posted for my area.
Is this Directv outage countrywide?
Quoting 35. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Is this Directv outage countrywide?


Solar flare
Quoting 37. RitaEvac:



Solar flare


Thank you!
Tornado watch for SE TX and Houston into Lousiana and points north

Fort Worth sitting in a dry bulls eye as Dallas received more and LOTS more just to their W and NW

1.28" storm total at Van Nuys(KVNY). Not bad at all, with a couple more storms on the way(Friday and Monday).
Last week when the Arctic Sea Ice recovered a few days before falling again, that may have been peak. Years with similiar ONI as this year all peaked around that day. More details in my blog.

This looks like the video from Tolar in the SPC report.

Upper 70's to low 80's across the area and the trees are loving it.
Quoting 24. StormTrackerScott:

Downwelling Kelvin Wave appears to be happening near the Dateline as cooler subsurface waters begin to vanish. This is going to be interesting going forward and the CFS may have a huge win with its forecast if this keeps up. Eric Blake's twitter page has this animated and wow just watch how the cool subsurface waters go poof!

Also anyone disputing the CFS may need to refer to what is happening across the Equatorial Indian Ocean as there is surge in Westerly Ocean currents moving toward Africa which may induce a +IOD down the road. All of this plays well with the CFS which shows a environment conduce for El-Nino to re-intensify this Summer.



Quoting 44. washingtonian115:

Upper 70's to low 80's across the area and the trees are loving it.


Could actually be on the hot side on Thursday, low to mid 80s. Not sure why models underdid this since the pattern was well known and forecastable and the radiation code in all modern models, in particular GFS and NAM is pretty good.
Quoting 45. tiggerhurricanes2001:



Can you link me that?
Quoting 47. Gearsts:

Can you link me that?

Sure. Link
From there you go to assorted plots, and keep scrolling to you find the picture.
Quoting 43. Skyepony:

Last week when the Arctic Sea Ice recovered a few days before falling again, that may have been peak. Years with similiar ONI as this year all peaked around that day. More details in my blog.

This looks like the video from Tolar in the SPC report.




TWC has been showing this video along with the damage on the ground from the tornado. It destroyed a bunch of trailers, etc.
EF1 Tornado Confirmed Near Cool, Texas; 1 Killed Near Houston
Link

Day 5...


...and day 7.


Let's play Spot the Difference!
52. vis0

Is anyone else having trouble loading NWS Paducah on Chrome or IE?
Quoting 9. Astrometeor:

Seems like I took over sar's duty of posting immediately after a new entry.



Nashville is still very ignorant of what's going to happen next year. All hotel rooms in Hopkinsville, KY, for example, are already booked for that week. My mother is planning to quit her job so she can devote her full time to astronomy, including the eclipse. We talked yesterday and she reminded me that "you meteorologists are going to be under pressure to get the forecast right that day."

She even bought a couple of websites already. Nerd.


Dammit. I had checked a little while ago and they said they weren't booking that far in advance. :P

The time is around lunch time so it should reduce the chance of storm/cloud interference as that usually occurs later in the day at that time of year. Of course, if a front is moving through then all bets are off.

I'll have to check other hotels along the path I guess. Or it could just be a day trip if I can find a flight out early enough.
Quoting 46. georgevandenberghe:



Could actually be on the hot side on Thursday, low to mid 80s. Not sure why models underdid this since the pattern was well known and forecastable and the radiation code in all modern models, in particular GFS and NAM is pretty good.
Yeah I'm clocking in at 80 degrees at my house.They always underestimate the D.C heat island.
Quoting 44. washingtonian115:

Upper 70's to low 80's across the area and the trees are loving it.


It's awesome outside. Did some yard work and now going on a run. Spring has come early to our area washi. :)

EDIT: PWS is currently showing 78F.
UPDATE: Paducah's good now. Can load page just fine

EDIT: Spoke too soon. Still having problems loading map.
Quoting 57. Xyrus2000:



It's awesome outside. Did some yard work and now going on a run. Spring has come early to our area washi. :)

EDIT: PWS is currently showing 78F.
Oh yes! I wouldn't mind if the weather was like this all summer.My rose bush after remaining dormant since December is coming out again and the birds are have come out to play.Hard to believe it was in its 30's this time last year with snow on the ground.
too far out in time but..winter may not be done with the northeast it seems...........
@wxmanvic
Weekly Nino 3.4 SSTA of +1.9C is coolest since 7/29/15. Much cooling over the past 4 weeks btwn 120W/170W. #elnino pic.twitter.com/ca0CGIL3vR
12:49pm - 8 Mar 16
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

SCC049-053-GAC103-251-091506-
/O.CON.KCHS.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLYG1.1.ER.160301T2130Z.160311T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
1007 AM EST TUE MAR 8 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
The Savannah River Near Clyo.
* At 9 AM Tuesday the stage was 11.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river will continue rising to near 12.1 feet by
Thursday evening. Additional rises may be possible thereafter.
* At 11.0 feet, the back yards of several homes on Tom Goethe Road
flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3273 8145 3276 8137 3264 8136 3249 8117
3246 8125 3261 8144

$$
Quoting 61. LargoFl:

too far out in time but..winter may not be done with the northeast it seems...........
winter is done trust me
and anything that does come will melt away 24 hrs after it falls too warm now sun is getting stronger everyday as it rises in the northern hemisphere to it summertime peak
66. rlk
One of the amusing ironies of weather...despite it being the second warmest winter on record, with the most daily highs of 50+ (35) and the fewest sub-freezing days since at least 1978 (49), we had the coldest daily low temperature since 1957 (-9). Without that little cold snap, it would have been the warmest winter on record.

The warmest winter on record (2001-2002) was a little different -- a complete lack of cold weather. The two coldest days all winter had high temperatures above normal, and one of those days actually averaged above normal.
Quoting 62. tiggerhurricanes2001:

@wxmanvic
Weekly Nino 3.4 SSTA of +1.9C is coolest since 7/29/15. Much cooling over the past 4 weeks btwn 120W/170W. #elnino pic.twitter.com/ca0CGIL3vR
12:49pm - 8 Mar 16


Pretty crazy that it essentially spent 6 months at +2.0 or higher.
wash is 1 degree warmer than Miami as of 4 pm
inner feelings feel low number but higher than normal ACE ouch
lower lakes south and eastward can expect a warmer than normal spring
we are in the 50's here
all the snow that fell last tuseday is all but gone
minus the piles from where the plow pushed it
that will be gone after the 60 degree weather tomorrow is done
followed by 12 hrs of a good washing down rain

Arkansas now getting hammered. At least half the state now getting rain at the same time.

Quoting 24. StormTrackerScott:

Downwelling Kelvin Wave appears to be happening near the Dateline as cooler subsurface waters begin to vanish. This is going to be interesting going forward and the CFS may have a huge win with its forecast if this keeps up. Eric Blake's twitter page has this animated and wow just watch how the cool subsurface waters go poof!

Also anyone disputing the CFS may need to refer to what is happening across the Equatorial Indian Ocean as there is surge in Westerly Ocean currents moving toward Africa which may induce a IOD down the road. All of this plays well with the CFS which shows a environment conduce for El-Nino to re-intensify this Summer.




negative IOD in the summer
Frogs are signing big time in the northeastern part of MD. They started around Leap Day. Now it sounds like late May in the evenings. A bit early, but they can easily handle another cold snap or two, should we get any brief return to normal.
from NOAA 3/7/2016

More recently, the downwelling phase of a
Kelvin wave has shifted eastward into the
eastern Pacific, while an upwelling phase is
apparent in the east-central Pacific.
82. vis0
NOTE1::  If your vision reacts negatively to bright/Dark extremes do not view as separated lightning overlay from rain overlay to better see the max rain potential areas (green) under lightning strokes (cyan, yellow, red)
CREDIT:: NASA, NOAA, University of Washington
D&T:: 201603-08;0115_-08;2015
AREA:: South Central USofA
MY FOCUS:: Northern towards Southern California, Texas East-Central-East (with flows downstream), Arkansas, Southern Oklahoma, Louisiana.
SAT IMG:: Blend of 3, final product not a public from any of the 3 aforementioned.
NOTE2:: Colour Key is created from the blending therefore NOT official
NOTE3:: Weird that the mid north Atlantic swirl barely has any lightning, i thought it was going to head more eastward and turn into some sort of tropical hybrid.

WYS 628x488 or @Youtube via https://youtu.be/rDxXrNRwpGE(org 1014x755)
Quoting 79. JRRP7:



negative IOD in the summer

-++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++++++++++the the last sentence you quoted speaks volumes...but not for el nino....for la nina....now the iod and enso are not always in sync.....however....read this from the aussie mets.....

In scientific terms, the IOD is a coupled ocean and atmosphere phenomenon, similar to ENSO but in the equatorial Indian Ocean. It is thought that the IOD has a link with ENSO events through an extension of the Walker Circulation to the west and associated Indonesian throughflow (the flow of warm tropical ocean water from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean). Hence, positive IOD events are often associated with El Niño and negative events with La Niña. When the IOD and ENSO are in phase the impacts of El Niño and La Niña events are often most extreme over Australia, while when they are out of phase the impacts of El Niño and La Niña events can be diminished.
The cell NW of Del Rio looked like it had a nice hook echo not too long ago when crossing the Rio Grande River. The signature has since weakened but it remains a severe thunderstorm warned cell. The cell just north is taking over now.

Static loop:

I will not believe in this

until they fix this
Link
Link
Had a busy pm at work and about to head home; just posting the storm reports for today before I leave. Stay safe out there in the affected areas between today and tomorrow:

Outlook for Tomorrow:



Today:


today Reports Graphic
Quoting 56. washingtonian115:

Yeah I'm clocking in at 80 degrees at my house.They always underestimate the D.C heat island.


THis was not a heat island error, the whole area is about 10F warmer than forecast a few days ago.

Actually every April heat wave I remember looked like a long stretch of mid 70s on the five day forecasts and verified
much warmer than those forecasts.
88. vis0
Quoting 58. 62901IL:

UPDATE: Paducah's good now. Can load page just fine

EDIT: Spoke too soon. Still having problems loading map.
Read your UPDATE yet on my First try on FFox, CHrome didn't load (cleaned cache tried again no load) BUT when i went from first try and didn't clean cache straight to refreshed and though its a bit slower to load than i;d expect, at least it loaded

i don't check as to my Win as its too old
Quoting 80. ariot:

Frogs are signing big time in the northeastern part of MD. They started around Leap Day. Now it sounds like late May in the evenings. A bit early, but they can easily handle another cold snap or two, should we get any brief return to normal.


Spring peepers are normally late February into April here. I've noticed a decline in the past week, perhaps because we are drying out.
Quoting 84. StAugustineFL:

The cell NW of Del Rio looked like it had a nice hook echo not too long ago when crossing the Rio Grande River. The signature has since weakened but it remains a severe thunderstorm warned cell. The cell just north is taking over now.

Static loop:




Still image from earlier. Not the greatest but ya'll get the point.

Geeeeze if this pans out..........

That red is pretty impressive.
79 is being projected for tomorrow but I wouldn't be surprised to see low 80's and mid 80's are quite possible Thursday.The short sleeves will be in effect all week and with some of the trees starting to see even green leaves by next week.

I wanted to see if anyone had an idea related to flooding frequency and trends by state. I am doing some research for a contractor where an element of their business relates to repair of transportation infrastructure from flooding. I am trying to determine the frequency of floods by state and if there is any trend up or down. I am currently looking at the number of federal disaster declarations by state that involve flooding since 2000 and the number since 2010 (to pick up the trend). For the trend I was thinking percent of floods from 2000 to 2016 that occurred since 2010.
I am uncertain that this approach to the trend really captures it. It may be too small of a timeframe. Does anyone have any ideas about how to approach this frequency and trend of floods by state issue? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

If you are interested in the data:

States with most federal floods since 2000 – KY (24), MO (23), NE, TN, WV (21), AR (20)

States with least federal floods since 2000 – ID, IN (0), SC, MD, IL (1)

States with highest percentage of floods since 2010 – CO, WY, SC (100%), MT (83%), NC (80%), SD (71%), IA, NM (70%)

States with lowest percentage of floods since 2010 – VA, DE, IL, MD, ID, IN (0%), OH (8%), HI (16%), PA (22%)

Overall there have been 512 federal flood declarations since 2000. 222 (43%) of those have been in 2010 or later.
Quoting 92. Climate175:

That red is pretty impressive.


Blue works for me n Soo Cal!
Quoting 93. washingtonian115:

79 is being projected for tomorrow but I wouldn't be surprised to see low 80's and mid 80's are quite possible Thursday.The short sleeves will be in effect all week and with some of the trees starting to see even green leaves by next week.
That is for sure, the National Park Service even pushed up the Cherry Blossoms forecast to March 18-23rd.
97. vis0
Quoting 92. Climate175:

That red is pretty impressive.
also impressive is the tight gradient, imagine living and going east or west in that area for daily chores
FLOOOOOOODDDDD WAAAAAAAAAATTTCHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 27. daddyjames:


As you and I both know, South Florida has been so lucky in regards to Turkey Point - a nuclear plant that could not be situated in a worse location. Unbelievable that it has survived unscathed all these years from any storms.


Yep. Lucky that Andrew didn't destroy it.
NWS San Diego 72hour rainfall and snowfall totals in it's forecast area. No flooding problems and soils ready for 2 more storms that are forecast for Fri/Sat and Mon/Tuesday.

Link
@CycloneBiskit
#Winston confirmed to produce strongest winds on record in #Fiji: 126 kt sustained with gust to 165 kt in Vanua Balavu per Fiji Met Service.
We're bracing for the event here. I've moved everything up from the garage floor that needed to be up.

Going up to Baton Rouge Noon Thursday.

Will be right on the River there for a show at 7:30 Pm. CDT.

River Center Theater




Quoting 73. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lower lakes south and eastward can expect a warmer than normal spring

KOTG,
If the waters of the great lakes are a lot warmer than normal surely this should mean that they will approach record temps this summer as they have such a good head start.
Last year I was in Toronto in February and it was minus-20/C this year you must be at least 20/C in front of last year to say the least.
Added to this it a El Nino year, so lots of moisture about.
I cant help but think that the insectual pests will be very active very early this year!

A bit further north the Arctic is well down on its ice levels for the time of year. Sort of make me wonder if we might be in for a few surprises later on in the year.

Oh I'm in England at the moment, its been raining for months here and even we had the odd snow event this last few days. Water pouring out of the ground all over the place.
The weather forecast said very cold here at the end of the month and now they say very warm next week.
I cant wait to get back to Spain next week, where very little ever happens which is not normal and expected.
104. MahFL
Quoting 30. HurricaneHunterJoe:

And last but not least, Shasta Lake is up to 1011' elevation with only 57' more needed to be full! Lake is rising 3 feet per day currently!


Awesome.
105. flsky
Did they use this building as a shelter after Katrina? It looks familiar.

Quoting 102. Patrap:

We're bracing for the event here. I've moved everything up from the garage floor that needed to be up.

Going up to Baton Rouge Noon Thursday.

Will be right on the River there for a show at 7:30 Pm. CDT.

River Center Theater





So, it's looking likely that our 2016 Atlantic season will be Weak La Nina + Negative AMO. That would most likely mean a near normal season.
Stay high and dry Patrap.
In Mammoth, when it snows, it pours.

Avalanche cannons were blasting Monday, as Mammoth Mountain dug out from another 4 feet of weekend snow. In the midst of that, more snow arrived Monday with white-out conditions continuing. As much as 4 additional feet were predicted by the time the storm passes Tuesday morning, giving a total since Saturday of up to 8 feet of new snow.
Link
109. 882MB
Wow, those are some pretty intense thunderstorms.

No station in Alaska has reached -50°F this past winter. With longer days, reaching -50°F will be increasingly difficult. This will be the first time on record no station in Alaska has reached -50°F during the cold season.

As Alaska Warms, the Iditarod Adapts
111. vis0

Quoting 103. PlazaRed:


KOTG,
If the waters of the great lakes are a lot warmer than normal surely this should mean that they will approach record temps this summer as they have such a good head start.
Last year I was in Toronto in February and it was minus-20/C this year you must be at least 20/C in front of last year to say the least.
Added to this it a El Nino year, so lots of moisture about.
I cant help but think that the insectual pests will be very active very early this year!

A bit further north the Arctic is well down on its ice levels for the time of year. Sort of make me wonder if we might be in for a few surprises later on in the year.

Oh I'm in England at the moment, its been raining for months here and even we had the odd snow event this last few days. Water pouring out of the ground all over the place.
The weather forecast said very cold here at the end of the month and now they say very warm next week.
I cant wait to get back to Spain next week, where very little ever happens which is not normal and expected.
already smacked 2 tropical looking flies in the past 4 days it isn't till May that AT most i see 2 Tropical looking flies (stripes, dots on flies).  Remember those silly 1950s/1960s "The Fly" type movies, i think Nature is going to imitate art sooner than we think/ Can you imagine AK,  Central Canada sized flies merging with Tropical flies? a stinger that rivals any syringe...
Future(like in 6 years) scenario::

REPORTER::
What is it Dr?
Dr2:: This patient received 40cc of fly "muck"
REPORTER:: is that bad?
Dr2::
Not as bad as the pierced lung from the fly's stinger.

As to your local weather in Spain shhh... now you did it watch 2 TS hit Spain and a lost Nor'Easter from the USofA
112. 882MB
Look at that river of moisture flowing up then back down into the ULL in Mexico, straight from the beautiful island of Hawaii. Pineapple Express? :)



882MB, you going to change your handle to 879MB because of Patricia's measured pressure? :)
114. 882MB
Quoting 113. BaltimoreBrian:

882MB, you going to change your handle to 879MB because of Patricia's measured pressure? :)


I might, but I'm sticking to 882MB for now. I went through Wilma and it was quite an experience, it was the strongest storm I went through since Andrew when I was young.
Massive 3.5 Inch diameter Hail here in Central Texas.

Does anyone else use Pykl3 radar for Android? If so, do you have any suggestions on how i can post screenshots from Pykl3 radar to the blog?
Clouds in Los Angeles were seeded with Silver iodide for the storm on Monday. It was the first time since 2002 that the Public Works Dept had footed cloud seeding.
Quoting 115. hotroddan:

Massive 3.5 Inch diameter Hail here in Central Texas.



What area of central Texas
Why is there such a delay in recent months with weather warnings posting to local NWS websites? Sitting in a hallway a couple of weeks ago as a tornado was tearing through Pensacola, warnings were current on NWS Mobile, but this is often not the case lately. Sometimes warnings are posted nearly an hour after they were issued. What changed? Here is a good site for getting the latest warnings quickly: Link
120. JRRP7

Oh oh...
Quoting 120. JRRP7:


Oh oh...


La Nina is coming, that is very likely. What's not so likely is the AMO will be warm enough to support an active Atlantic.

First cold front to reach the Hawaiian Islands intact this season. The front will help channel subtropical moisture toward the California coast. Forecast has a sluggish to stationary front parking over the Bay Area starting late Wednesday with copious rains, likely to start causing flooding in some areas due to saturated soils.
123. JRRP7
Quoting 121. HurricaneFan:



La Nina is coming, that is very likely. What's not so likely is the AMO will be warm enough to support an active Atlantic.

or SLP above normal
Quoting 118. MrNatural:


What area of central Texas
A line of storms stretching from San Saba to Laredo.
Link
New video released. Check it out.
If anyone wants to join me in my blog, you can. :)
Two red dots indicating rivers on the California/Nevada NOAA river maps that are forecast to reach flood stage - the Russian River in Sonoma County, and the Navarro River in Mendocino County. The forecast cresting heights have been creeping upwards.

The Russian River at Guerneville is forecast to just touch the 32' flood stage midday Saturday and the Navarro river in remote country in Mendocino County near the coast is forecast to go about 8' above it's 23' flood stage for a brief time Friday evening.

LINK
128. MahFL
Sad to hear Storm Chaser Mike Phelps wife has died after a short illness.
Current Anomaly

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/an omw.3.7.2016.gif
Current Anomaly

131. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, NASA, University of Washington
D&T:: 201603-09;0215_-09;0315 JUST 1 hour.
SAT IMG:: Blend of 3, final product not a public from any of the 3 aforementioned.
MY FOCUS:: S+SSE with some need in my armature WxWatcher  estimations to watch the desert areas. Though just 1 hour of imagery look how slow plus fire hose is focusing some moisture towards desert areas as stated yesterday though air needs to become saturated not much in those desert areas can cause dangerous situations.
AniGIF::
201603-090215_-090315_SW-S-SE_USofA-Flooding-.gif
Test Message
Quoting 132. ProgressivePulse:

hello
Hey pulse what's up.
Area forecast disscussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
334 PM CST Tuesday Mar 8 2016

Synopsis...

High pressure remains anchored off the Carolina/Georgia coast.
Surface low pressure over Minnesota has a cold front southwestward
into West Texas. At upper levels...a ridge is over the
Appalachians with a closed upper low over northwest Mexico and the
Gulf of California. Scattered showers have developed west of
Interstate 55...but any rain amounts with these showers has been
light. Breezy conditions across the entire area this afternoon
with temperatures in the 70s. Dew points range from upper 50s east
to middle 60s near the Atchafalaya basin.

&&

Short term... 

Mexico upper low will continue digging southeast for about
another 24 hours before beginning to swing northeast into the Rio 
Grande Valley by Friday morning. This will continue pump tropical
moisture into the area through the end of the week. Precipitable
water values will increase into the 1.5 to 2 inch range by
Thursday morning. Low level jet forecast slightly weaker...40
knots vs 50 knots in previous runs by Thursday morning...but still
plenty enough to serve as a focus for heavy rainfall Thursday into
Friday. Ahead of main column of moisture...airmass will be
unstable with convective available potential energy in excess of 1000 j/kg likely and lifted 
indices of -4 to -7. Marginal risk for severe weather west of 
Interstate 55 tomorrow with slight risk in Atchafalaya basin...and
marginal risk for all areas west of the Pearl River on Thursday.
Will keep rain chances in the chance range across the western half 
of the area through midday tomorrow...gradually increasing into
the categorical range Wednesday night into Friday. East of
Interstate 55...rain chances generally in the chance range until
Thursday morning...categorical Thursday night and Friday.

Models are rather similar painting widespread 4 to 7 inch rain
totals across the area through Friday night. With the heaviest
rain across our area not expected until extremely late Wednesday
night into Thursday...will hold off on a flash flood/Flood Watch
for one more run...but one is likely to be issued either on the
midnight shift tonight or day shift on Wednesday.

Wind Advisory may be necessary at some point in the next 36
hours...primarily for areas south of Lake Pontchartrain.

No big differences in temperature forecast...and have accepted a
blended solution. 35

Long term...

Much better agreement between GFS and European model (ecmwf) today on eventual
disposition of Mexico upper low...swinging through the area during
the daytime hours on Saturday. This should bring an end to any
significant rain across the area by Saturday evening. A trailing
shortwave will move across the area Sunday night...but most
precipitation with this should remain to the north of our area. A
new weather system may approach the area Wednesday of next
week...beyond the scope of this forecast package.

There is no cold air behind this system...and cooler overnight
lows will be more as a result of a drier airmass across the area
as anything. High temperatures for Sunday into Tuesday likely to
be in the upper 70s and lower 80s across much of the area. 35

&&
136. vis0
Quoting 117. Skyepony:

Clouds in Los Angeles were seeded with Silver iodide for the storm on Monday. It was the first time since 2002 that the Public Works Dept had footed cloud seeding.
That's not how one should use silver anything. (though, i bet they'll take credit but little 'ol me which predicted this nino 2-3 yrs ago plus RRRs TTTs (Near betwen areas East of Autralia and then west to Africa)   ...pffft! ...oops pfft out my gum ...there its back in.

It should be used to ENHANCE micro LOWs, since as to physics that is the most man cam do, enhance what nature is presenting. (till mankind figure out the ml-d on their own)

Now where to enhance?

Look south Between Alaska & Hawaii notice LOWS  i called a few blogbytes ago "cogs" Those are what should be seeded AT THE CORRECT angle as in a third towards the West of the MAJOR LOW or  two thirds on either side of the MAJOR LOWS near Alaska.  

Why seed thus enhancing those mini LOW that come between the MAJOR LOW. The MAJOR LOWs do the hard work of pulling up moisture from the south (at times even rich moisture from the Tropics) then the man enhanced micro LOW acts like a tourniquet and separates the latter 2/3rds of the front that was connected to the MAJOR LOW to its north and vuwalla some moisture will flow towards the east. Do that 2 or 3 times in a row  THEN some seeding over California might bring a bit of rain which is still much more than man can create by just seeding once a weaker storm arrives plus much cheaper than desalination plants.

or i could be 99.9% wrong BTW "Tourniquet LOWs" would be a catchy name for those enhanced mini LOWs.
i can hear skyepony right now..."your 1005 correct vis, your      99.9%   100%wrong"
Orleans parish Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Watches & Warnings

Coastal Flood AdvisoryIssued: 3:27 PM CST Mar. 8, 2016

National Weather Service

... Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM CST
Thursday...

* coastal flooding... all Gulf coastal areas from the mouth of
the Atchafalaya River to the Mississippi-Alabama state line
are expected to experience tides up to 2 feet above normal
levels.

* Timing... now through Thursday afternoon.

* Impacts... minor flooding of low lying coastal roadways and
areas normally subject to coastal flooding during abnormal
high tides outside protection levees.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1109 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1054 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1051 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1051 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1038 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1037 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1029 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
140. vis0
From the link presented by PensacolaBuoy posting some here so not all go there at once.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1116 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1110 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1109 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1054 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 1051 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1051 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1038 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1037 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1029 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 935 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 935 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 931 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 919 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 919 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 908 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 907 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 903 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 900 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 854 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 853 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 850 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 848 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 827 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
142. vis0
also posted them as i thought Patrap was getting the needed sleep to be at the riverfront wide awke and alert for any oncoming storms them  but i see Patrap still hard at work even during Patraps "off time".
<----- watching @midnight
Quoting 102. Patrap:

We're bracing for the event here. I've moved everything up from the garage floor that needed to be up.

Going up to Baton Rouge Noon Thursday.

Will be right on the River there for a show at 7:30 Pm. CDT.

River Center Theater






Thanks to the ACOE and SELA flood control project, we abandoned uptown, out of total frustration, and decamped to our rental property in the French Quarter. It's on the fourth floor, so we're good :)
Patrap can you repost that warning message in a larger font, my neighbors can't quite read it from my computer screen.
The CFSv2 is apparently having initialization issues and should be thrown out. At this point, there is little question that the ongoing El Nino will have a quick demise as we progress toward the start of the 2016 hurricane season, and we could be looking at a La Nina by August. Ocean currents have already reversed, and a cool pool is becoming well established below the surface.

Cool ENSO years favor increased Atlantic activity in general, but that's one part of a larger puzzle.

Quoting 141. Patrap:





That looks just like a brush fire....
Quoting 103. PlazaRed:


KOTG,
If the waters of the great lakes are a lot warmer than normal surely this should mean that they will approach record temps this summer as they have such a good head start.
Last year I was in Toronto in February and it was minus-20/C this year you must be at least 20/C in front of last year to say the least.
Added to this it a El Nino year, so lots of moisture about.
I cant help but think that the insectual pests will be very active very early this year!

A bit further north the Arctic is well down on its ice levels for the time of year. Sort of make me wonder if we might be in for a few surprises later on in the year.

Oh I'm in England at the moment, its been raining for months here and even we had the odd snow event this last few days. Water pouring out of the ground all over the place.
The weather forecast said very cold here at the end of the month and now they say very warm next week.
I cant wait to get back to Spain next week, where very little ever happens which is not normal and expected.

all the lakes are virtually ice free
this time last year all the lakes were frozen over except lake Ontario

I am thinking warm and wet spring followed up with long hot dry summer maybe even extreme hot/dry but that's a little much but we shall see

atlantic hurricane season will be active for most and extreme for a few but again nothing is etched in stone at the moment but things are coming into place that may in fact lead to exactly what iam typing and thinking at the moment

as for arctic ice 2016 may give 2012's ice min extent a run for the title

we have been and will continue too swing from one extreme to another at an ever faster and faster pace


dark reds around and west of boston are 30 plus degrees above normal temps for this time of year
Quoting 55. Xyrus2000:



Dammit. I had checked a little while ago and they said they weren't booking that far in advance. :P

The time is around lunch time so it should reduce the chance of storm/cloud interference as that usually occurs later in the day at that time of year. Of course, if a front is moving through then all bets are off.

I'll have to check other hotels along the path I guess. Or it could just be a day trip if I can find a flight out early enough.

The center of the path of totality of the August 21, 2017 eclipse passes about 10 miles south of my home here in Salem, Oregon shortly after 10:15 in the morning. I would get about 1 minute 54 seconds of totality. But I'm considering where I want to watch it from. If the weather is good enough I could go to the coast (about a 1 hour drive) and watch is as it hits North America or if the weather is not so good I might head out into eastern Oregon where clear skies are more likely.


We are getting clobbered here in Austin tonight. Frequent lightning, flash flooding, some hail. Wow.
157. vis0
This is not just a storm "training" but maybe "rearwards training" as its not just building where it already poured but training backwards too. (last image over an hour ago, upload issies on MY side)
image host

no wonder:: (by the time one reads these warnings odds are more just went up so if you are in this area or water from here heads your way NOAA radio should be ON 24/7)
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 158 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 144 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 143 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 114 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1244 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1243 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1236 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 1234 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1220 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1214 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1156 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 1151 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016
Good morning with an update on the severe flooding in the Balkans:
Eastern Europe hit by torrential rain
BBC weather, 8 March 2016 Last updated at 16:03
The Balkan states have been battered by heavy rain causing a number of rivers to burst their banks. Darren Bett reports.


Low "Doris" over UK and western Europe while it will stay dry in Germany the next days due to the jet stream going round central Europe to the south. More wet weather for some Mediterranean folks though.


"Doris" in a pocket of cold air (red).
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
328 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

.A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
A FEW ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING.

LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077 -080>082-091730-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.A.0001.160310T1200Z-160312T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-
ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-
LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW ROADS...LETTSWORTH...LIVONIA...
SPILLMAN...ST. FRANCISVILLE...WAKEFIELD...JACKSON...CLINTON...
FELPS...DARLINGTON...EASLEYVILLE...GREENSBURG...M ONTPELIER...
BOGALUSA...ENON...FRANKLINTON...SLIDELL...MANDEVI LLE...
COVINGTON...LACOMBE...BAYOU SORREL...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE...GONZALES...
DONALDSONVILLE...PRAIRIEVILLE...DENHAM SPRINGS...WATSON...
WALKER...PIERRE PART...LABADIEVILLE...PAINCOURTVILLE...CONVENT...
LUTCHER...GRAMERCY...LAPLACE...RESERVE...THIBODAU X...RACELAND...
LAROSE...DESTREHAN...NORCO...METAIRIE...KENNER...
EAST NEW ORLEANS...NEW ORLEANS...BELLE CHASSE...CHALMETTE...
VIOLET...HOUMA...BAYOU CANE...CHAUVIN...COCODRIE...DULAC...
MONTEGUT...GALLIANO...CUT OFF...GOLDEN MEADOW...LEEVILLE...
BURAS...POINTE A LA HACHE...PORT SULPHUR...BOOTHVILLE...VENICE...
EMPIRE...MYRTLE GROVE...YSCLOSKEY...AMITE...KENTWOOD...ROSELAND...
WILMER...HAMMOND...ROBERT...PONCHATOULA...CENTREV ILLE...
DOLOROSA...FORT ADAMS...WOODVILLE...GILLSBERG...GLOSTER...
SMITHDALE...LIBERTY...MCCOMB...DEXTER...SALEM...T YLERTOWN...
CROSSROADS...MCNEIL...PICAYUNE...BAY ST. LOUIS...WAVELAND...
DIAMONDHEAD...GULFPORT...PASCAGOULA...OCEAN SPRINGS...
MOSS POINT...GAUTIER...ST. MARTIN
328 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER JEFFERSON...LOWER
LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST. BERNARD...LOWER
TERREBONNE...NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE AND WEST FELICIANA.
IN MISSISSIPPI...AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON... JACKSON...PEARL
RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL AND WILKINSON.

* FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

* RAINFALL...4 TO 7 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 10 INCHES.

* PRIMARY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLASH FLOODING OF LOW LYING
LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE OR ALONG
LOW LYING RURAL ROADS. FLOODING OF STREAMS...CREEKS AND BAYOUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
Australia-wide unseasonally hot weather break records, heat set to continue, BoM says
ABC, Posted about 4 hours ago
Australia is grappling with a seemingly endless summer, as every state and territory swelters through an unseasonally hot start to autumn.
The country is experiencing warm weather as the mercury climbs above average in most areas, during a month usually reserved for a cool change, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has said.
Only small areas along the southern coast of Western Australia and along the central Queensland coast have recorded below average maximum temperatures so far this month.
BoM senior climatologist David Martin said the hot start to autumn showed a "clear trend" toward warmer weather across the country.
"Some of the more significant heatwaves during spring and autumn have occurred when conditions have been dry, and it has been a very dry second half to the monsoon season," he said.
Melbourne sweltered through its hottest March night on record on Tuesday night, when temperatures hovered at 30 degrees Celsius, only dipping slightly after midnight. ...

More details see link above.

Melbourne records its hottest March night since records began
Temperatures hovered around 30C for most of Tuesday night, after reaching a daytime peak of 38.9C
The Guardian, March 9, 2016

Expanding Heat Resilient Cities Across India: Nagpur & Odisha Adopt First Regional Plans
Posted March 9, 2016

Namibia: Food Security, Livestock Grazing Deteriorating
Windhoek, March 8 - The household food security situation continues to weaken and grazing continues to deteriorate in various parts of the country as drought conditions strengthen.
Autumn has arrived with very little hope of late rains in March to bring last-minute relief to dryland crop producers. A massive effort this year by the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry (MAWF) to distribute hundreds of thousands of seeds to the crop-producing regions in the north was partially defeated by the absence of good rains in the planting season and lack of follow-up rains after seeds were planted. ...
Australia has always seemed like an uninhabitable place for me and even more so in the recent years when they have had lots of crazy heat waves that are only getting worse and more common in the future. Honestly who the heck can live there? Skin cancer is like as common as flu there.
162. elioe
Quoting 161. Arcticstuff:



Australia will be habitable at least as long as there is an edible plant, that can be cultivated in the local climate; as long as the climate allows animal husbandry; and as long as there is mining. The main point is to have a livelihood available in the location. Compared to that, heat waves are only a nuisance, as long as they are not intense enough to destroy the livelihood.

Ps. I would really like to see Lake Eyre filled, would do good for the Australian climate. ( Generally, I love massive geoengineering projects. )

Quoting 158. barbamz:



Mainly dry in Finland also for the next ten days. Foehn wind conditions possible next week, but even without that, temperatures staying many degrees above average.
Quoting 162. elioe:

Australia will be habitable at least as long as there is an edible plant, that can be cultivated in the local climate; as long as the climate allows animal husbandry; and as long as there is mining. The main point is to have a livelihood available in the location. Compared to that, heat waves are only a nuisance, as long as they are not intense enough to destroy the livelihood.

I think if you asked around, you'd find that heat waves are more than a "nuisance" to the many, many thousands of people killed by them every year.
From NWS Shreveport. Note this is rainfall in addition to that which has already fallen:



And for good measure, a little further south:

Quoting 113. BaltimoreBrian:

882MB, you going to change your handle to 879MB because of Patricia's measured pressure? :)


Actually Patricia's pressure was re-assessed to be 872 MB.

Band of rain and clouds coming into southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Quoting 99. Dakster:



Yep. Lucky that Andrew didn't destroy it.
It takes a lot more than a cat 5 hurricane to destroy a nuclear power plant. That article in the paper, seems they are more concerned about saltwater intruding into the freshwater wells that supply water to parts of the Florida Keys.
Quoting 117. Skyepony:

Clouds in Los Angeles were seeded with Silver iodide for the storm on Monday. It was the first time since 2002 that the Public Works Dept had footed cloud seeding.
Yes lets do more damage to the atmosphere, if it isn't going to rain in your area, don't destroy it for somebody downwind that might also need it. If you take the moister out of the atmosphere in one area, what is going to replace it downwind?
Quoting 121. HurricaneFan:



La Nina is coming, that is very likely. What's not so likely is the AMO will be warm enough to support an active Atlantic.
Don't count on it.
Quoting 151. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


O well, as they say, you can't control mother nature.
So far....complete and utter...Bust. Non event. 0.37" in the gauge. Thought I'd be working from home today, not the case. Houston/Galveston region didn't live up to the hype for flooding rains.
It's becoming more and more apparent that meteorologists are becoming model watchers and relying solely on them. And sadly, I myself am beginning to not pay too much attention especially when it comes down to supposedly big events that are not panning out consistently. Yes flooding and severe weather has taken place in other places, but this stuff has to start getting pinned down otherwise people are not going to pay attention in the future at all, and by then, something bad will happen.
Quoting 170. NativeSun:

O well, as they say, you can't control mother nature.
The only people who say that are those unfamiliar with physics. We are, indeed, unintentionally controlling Mother Nature--and if you ask me, she doesn't appear to be very happy about it...
Good Morning. Here is the forecast, current look, and convective outlook for the day:


Those lows (both upper and lower level) over Texas and Mexico keep pumping moisture from the E-Pac and Gulf, along with the Pacific jet, into the mid-section/US plains like a conveyor belt:

Lover Level-Low/Vorticity:



Upper Level Low:



And finally the skinny from WPC on the Texas/Mexico lows and impacts:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EST Wed Mar 09 2016

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 09 2016 - 12Z Fri Mar 11 2016

...Flash flooding threat to continue for portions of southern plains and
lower/mid Mississippi valley...

...Severe thunderstorms possible today across western Gulf Coast states...

...Heavy rain possible for the Pacific Northwest and northern California...

A large and anomalous upper-level low will move slowly across northern
Mexico over the next couple days. East of this low, a plume of deep
tropical moisture will continue streaming northward into the southern
plains and the lower/middle Mississippi valley. This moisture will
interact with a couple frontal boundaries across the region to produce
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Due to the very slow movement of the
upper-level low, showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect many of
the same areas through Friday. Heavy rain falling over the same areas
repeatedly will lead to the threat of flash flooding for some areas.
Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a slight risk of
severe thunderstorms today across portions of the western Gulf Coast
states. Farther north, rain showers across the Midwest and Great Lakes
today will advance east into the Ohio valley and Northeast on Thursday
ahead of a cold front. Snow and sleet may fall across northern New England
Thursday evening into Friday morning.

Interesting how the huge (anomalous) upper level low over Mexico has temporarily displaced the flow of the Pacific Jet; in the absence of this low, we would have a more normal El Nino type jet flow from the E-Pac, and across Mexico, towards the Northern Gulf Coast from the West-SW:



178. MahFL
Quoting 168. NativeSun:

Yes lets do more damage to the atmosphere, if it isn't going to rain in your area, don't destroy it for somebody downwind that might also need it. If you take the moister out of the atmosphere in one area, what is going to replace it downwind?


On the east side of CA the mountains squeeze out the rain, they have plenty of moisture in the mountains, it's in the valleys they need the rain.
And finally, the highs for today; notice how the jet dip is allowing some cooler air from the North to dip down into the Northern mid-section of the US. However, not that pool of very cold polar air that we get in the middle of Winter; Spring is on the horizon:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

180. MahFL
Flood emergency declared in Shreveport, LA. They have had 10 inches of rain and more forecast.
181. MahFL
Lake Shasta, CA continues to fill up :

68% of Total Capacity
90% of Historical Avg. For This Date.
I'm actually more concerned about today's severe potential for Louisiana than I am tomorrow. The GFS/NAM suggest the pseudo MCS shouldn't evolve until tomorrow as the main system slides eastward. In the meantime, with a 30 to 35 kt low-level jet and at least modest turning of the winds with height, we should be on the outlook for the possibility of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes today, since any storms that form likely won't have that much convective competition compared to tomorrow. The greatest concentration of this activity should occur around the Lake Charles area, possibly spreading eastward and northward a bit as well.
Here are the storm reports from yesterday and nothing up yet this morning (but it looks very promising as daytime heating progresses). The rain totals look pretty unbelievable for this time of the year due to the lows and particularly the very slow moving ULL over Mexico (not your typical short-term frontal passage rain event):


Southern Mississippi Valley sector loop



yesterday Filtered Reports Graphic

147. TropicalAnalystwx13
5:53 AM GMT on March 09, 2016
5 +
The CFSv2 is apparently having initialization issues and should be thrown out. At this point, there is little question that the ongoing El Nino will have a quick demise as we progress toward the start of the 2016 hurricane season, and we could be looking at a La Nina by August. Ocean currents have already reversed, and a cool pool is becoming well established below the surface.

Cool ENSO years favor increased Atlantic activity in general, but that's one part of a larger puzzle.


i agree with your post but please allow me to be picky just a bit.....while i would agree that we'll be seeing la nina conditions in august....i'm not sure it will be officially declared
and yes....tropics......this graph shows better that the cfsv2 is initializing at about 2.4c....while last weeks enso report showed the 3.4 region at 1.9

and we talked about the NMME models being updated early this week....not sure they were shared....please allow me


the canadian model suggests a moderate la nina

gfdl is also showing moderate......


188. vis0
NOTE TIMES ARE - LOCAL TIME
 
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 818 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 814 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     COLUMBIA SC - KCAE 900 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 900 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     WILMINGTON NC - KILM 900 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 758 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 858 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 753 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 739 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 724 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 722 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 715 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 714 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 711 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 653 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 641 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 629 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
and the nasa model......la nina neutral


I don't see any tornado warnings up in the Carolinas at the moment as noted below (only the one in LA).
Morning all. Crazy seeing all the rain still in the same places from yesterday. I could post the exact same radars I did yesterday and it would look like they haven't updated.

Record Report
Issued: 4:02 AM CST Mar. 9, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Shreveport...

a record rainfall of 5.12 inch(es) was set at Shreveport yesterday.
This breaks the old record of 2.15 set in 1905.

Quoting 187. ricderr:

gfdl is also showing moderate......





And of course, somebody still believes in the outlier Cfsv2.
A question for Dr Masters and Henson.

How does the "atmospheric river" tapping into equatorial moisture southwest of Old Mexico, get across
the mountains there without having most of its moisture stripped? They do look impressive but moisture below 8K feet will get rained out.
When will I learn {facepalm}

Once again I get burned with a spring DC temp forecast under several days of sun. Models forecast the several days of sun under a high and pleasant 70s. Instead the airmass is heating up and we are looking at low 80s today and well into the 80s tomorrow!

Every spring heat wave except the ones in March 2012, looked like that.. nice five days out, hot verifying!

At least I don't do this for a living :-)
195. vis0
Quoting 170. NativeSun:

O well, as they say, you can't control mother nature.
Quoting 173. Neapolitan:

The only people who say that are those unfamiliar with physics. We are, indeed, unintentionally controlling Mother Nature--and if you ask me, she doesn't appear to be very happy about it...
(reply to Qu170)
i prefer to use "influence" rather than control.
Any being that can create things outside of the natural process i.e. gasoline of which most of what creates it is stored in the strongest safes known to mankind.  Stronger that any federal vault, that safe is Earth's deep underground vaults of minerals and much of it in being in that "vault" allowed creatures "allergic" (to say the least, some interactions would be directly deadly not delay deadly as aGW) to those minerals to flourish as Humans.
Now once those dangerous to those that thrive on the planets surface escape or are extruded now one begins to influence the Natural flow of Earth, natural as in what flows on  the natural pace versus what flows on the humans "gimme gimme (quicker than immediately) pace.
 
Can humans try to control Nature, sure but the more one tries to control Nature the more Nature and her big brother gawd push back, not by some form of anger but by the laws of the sciences.  Both nature & gawd are unconditionally luving, that means TO ALL not just humans.  So lets stick to physics, nature. If one adds chemicals to nature that normally would not be flowing above ground then in nature unconditionally luving ALL nature via science creates reacts to protect ALL even if it kills a few, as in a few million Humans or they things they eat and nature through the laws of physics does this to protect the complex planet.    Again don't look too far, THINK if the planet that i full of fluids is warming for whatever reason one of the things that will take hold is mildew then mold. Those things being indestructible once in the blood stream as one has to then remove all of a body's fluids to take out all spores and i think we understand we need fluids to live and then there still could be a mold spore in ones brain as those fluids cannot be touched guess what humanity disappears not by some complex virus but silly old mold.  
 
OH WAIT BACK TO THE TIMES ARE LOCAL (underlined to better follow across, why Patrap enlarges as in an emergency squinting "ain't" good.)
 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 857 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 833 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 825 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 818 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 814 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     COLUMBIA SC - KCAE 900 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     CHARLESTON SC - KCHS 900 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     WILMINGTON NC - KILM 900 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 758 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
TORNADO WARNING     GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 858 AM EST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 753 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 739 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 724 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 722 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 715 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 714 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 711 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 653 AM CST WED MAR 9 2016
First report of the am; we should see the storm and possible tornado warnings start to move slowly to the East-NE into LA, AK and into MS over the next several hours:

last3hours Reports Graphic

Very nasty looking stuff heading into the MS Valley region:



Quoting 172. RitaEvac:

It's becoming more and more apparent that meteorologists are becoming model watchers and relying solely on them. And sadly, I myself am beginning to not pay too much attention especially when it comes down to supposedly big events that are not panning out consistently. Yes flooding and severe weather has taken place in other places, but this stuff has to start getting pinned down otherwise people are not going to pay attention in the future at all, and by then, something bad will happen.

TV mets? Same issue in Indy. 'This model, that model, this outlier model'. Science has gone bye bye.
Quoting 192. CaribBoy:



And of course, somebody still believes in the outlier Cfsv2.



hmmm...believes in it...or uses it as it fits their agenda
It was 71° here today! Going from winter to spring. it was not needed this year. The winter that never was.

Snow drops in the mud...they usually come up through the snow.

Green machine getting up to 40 mpg since 1978, fun and powerful. BMW with original Luftmeister fairing. This is additional evidence of springtime in Chicagoland.
Quoting 168. NativeSun:

Yes lets do more damage to the atmosphere, if it isn't going to rain in your area, don't destroy it for somebody downwind that might also need it. If you take the moister out of the atmosphere in one area, what is going to replace it downwind?
Quoting 170. NativeSun:

O well, as they say, you can't control mother nature.
So...we *can't* control Mother Nature, or we *can*? Your answers appear to be in conflict with one another...
Quoting 200. ChiThom:

It was 71° here today! Going from winter to spring. it was not needed this year. The winter that never was.

Snow drops in the mud...they usually come up through the snow.

Green machine getting up to 40 mpg since 1978, fun and powerful. BMW with original Luftmeister fairing. This is additional evidence of springtime in Chicagoland.


Snowdrops bloom in January here in DC. This year I saw the first ones Dec 31 and was surprised because I thought they hadn't gotten enough chilling.

Daffodils are just starting here and this is about the time they usually start, second week of March.
Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you: The Big El Nino Western Rain Event..

Quoting 162. elioe:



Australia will be habitable at least as long as there is an edible plant, that can be cultivated in the local climate; as long as the climate allows animal husbandry; and as long as there is mining. The main point is to have a livelihood available in the location.


Correction, Australia will be habitable only as long as it's climate can support the people willing to live there. When the climate it's too difficult to survive in and/or it becomes unprofitable, it will no longer be habitable. Businesses will leave, people will leave (those that can) and everyone else will die. It's happened all throughout human history.

Compared to that, heat waves are only a nuisance, as long as they are not intense enough to destroy the livelihood.

There is very little margin left for that. When people can't afford power/air conditioning and are suffering and dying due to extreme heat I'd hardly call that a "nuisance". Especially when it's getting worse.

Ps. I would really like to see Lake Eyre filled, would do good for the Australian climate. ( Generally, I love massive geoengineering projects. )

Geoengineering at best only addresses symptoms, not the causes. At worst, it introduces a whole new set of issues on top of the problems you were trying to solve in the first place. There are consequences to screwing around with the climate system and you better be damn sure of what you're doing. Otherwise you could spend decades or centuries trying to undo the damage.
Quoting 190. weathermanwannabe:

I don't see any tornado warnings up in the Carolinas at the moment as noted below (only the one in LA).


The tornado warnings in SC and NC are test warnings.
Models aside (which are actually getting pretty good in terms of short-term forecasting but still with an occassional blown forecast) are great tools but I would say, personally, that the satellite imagery is the best tool that we have; the models might drill down where the greatest impacts might be (and are not gospel) but you can certainly see the bad weather on the way from the overhead imagery and get a good idea of what you are dealing with (whether tropical lows, winter lows, or other large scale weather complexes)......... We would all be flying totally blind without the weather satellites.
The Storm God isn't just Angry, he's Raging. 10 inches of Rain in Shreveport just spells trouble.

Here, in Carbondale, not even an inch yet. Flood watch does't start till noon now.
The new 12Z GFS is once again shifting it's heavy rain axis to the east and south of previous forecast. Starting to look like I may not get drop out of this...:/

Quoting 210. ILwthrfan:

The new 12Z GFS is once again shifting it's heavy rain axis to the east and south of previous forecast. Starting to look like I may not get drop out of this...:/




Don't worry, I get at least 2 inches.
212. bwi
Quoting 203. Mediarologist:

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you: The Big El Nino Western Rain Event..




Interesting that a super El Nino was only able to deliver average precip to California. Maybe a fluke, or maybe that's what it takes these days.
213. vis0
its deja-vu deluge all over again

Its like a TS split into thirds  1-flow (yesterday), 2-rain (today-tommorrow) the 3-winds (tonite-tommorrow)
non of the TS characteristics working together all at once but in the end similar effects.

Remember the days when Tornado warning sirens where tested BEFORE any T-activity? Sure once every 22-34 yrs an outbreal hit early but now its becoming the "undesirable norm" (nice title for a follow-up to inconvenient truth?)
Now for some ~weird reason~ ...mayyyyyyyyyybe! aGW, ...tornadoes are happening earlier (TS -too) so we might have to begin the monthly state to state  T-sirens tests during Xmas....on a regular basis.
Quoting 212. bwi:



Interesting that a super El Nino was only able to deliver average precip to California. Maybe a fluke, or maybe that's what it takes these days.


Just goes to show that man has no capability to predict.....anything. Never has and never will. Can create all the technology in the world, the best minds in the world....and at the end of the day, the cards will fall as they may.
Quoting 199. ricderr:




hmmm...believes in it...or uses it as it fits their agenda
More liked addicted to it. Lets see what happens when this Nina takes hold.
Quoting 200. ChiThom:

It was 71° here today! Going from winter to spring. it was not needed this year. The winter that never was.

Snow drops in the mud...they usually come up through the snow.

Green machine getting up to 40 mpg since 1978, fun and powerful. BMW with original Luftmeister fairing. This is additional evidence of springtime in Chicagoland.
Just for ChiThom. Great bike too :)

Quoting 202. georgevandenberghe:



Snowdrops bloom in January here in DC. This year I saw the first ones Dec 31 and was surprised because I thought they hadn't gotten enough chilling.

Daffodils are just starting here and this is about the time they usually start, second week of March.

You folks in DC are usually a couple weeks ahead of us in Chi-town. My daffodils are starting, too.

Quoting 210. ILwthrfan:

The new 12Z GFS is once again shifting it's heavy rain axis to the east and south of previous forecast. Starting to look like I may not get drop out of this...:/


I hope it shifts really far to the East and South, we could use the rain here in Southeast Florida, and the Keys.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
222. vis0

Quoting 202. georgevandenberghe:



Snowdrops bloom in January here in DC. This year I saw the first ones Dec 31 and was surprised because I thought they hadn't gotten enough chilling.

Daffodils are just starting here and this is about the time they usually start, second week of March.
If one looks close enough many leaves never fell off.    

Some leaves just turned "tree bark brown" (a drier version/colour of a brown leaf),  that is not good as the trees dormant period is like humans during REM sleep.  

Its when living things ..uh... have their red rest button IN THE BRAIN OR AURAs cyclical flow is reset by nature/gawd by "comparing" ones living energy to the higher" ethereal energy all around us (ya know that alpha-omega stuff, why auras are protected by a "humidity clause"). SIDE DISH OF RANT:: Remember those old TV** that had the red reset button in the back if pressed while ON you heard the sound of static racing through the TV.  Same in less complex animals (dogs-cats)...when?... when they also sleep but being less complex also when they shake their heads. Everything goes through this hence even rocks are alive, its that their self-soul-spirit is centered onto the complex planet, oops thought i was on my blog ah "leafing it in". Of course being we are complex Beings in a physical plane we can decide what we do and that means flow with nature (not as much fun) go against nature fun but very dangerous or pick a point somewhere in between, have fun but respect others including the planet
------------------------------------------------- -----------
**ya know without sar2401 how can we hear life stories as to serious weather of the covered wagon era?

Let me try::

i remember as a kid the winds RUSHING by me gust after gust the winds came from all angles (was standing too close to subway platform edge on 42nd st, NYC as subway cars passed by). The rains where pouring EVEN on a sunlit day (in that subway platform underground i happened to stand under the street grating, the puddles of rain from yesterday where being splashed by taxis down the street grating onto me)...see my adventure with water & rain isn't like sar2401.

BACK TO SERIOUS FLOODING and more???, take a deep breath shake off the WxU blog blues and thanks to those keeping watches & warnings up to date ...oh and thanks to Dr. Masters & Mr. Henson
Quoting 190. weathermanwannabe:

I don't see any tornado warnings up in the Carolinas at the moment as noted below (only the one in LA).


There's definitely none in the Carolinas, they're testing (though maybe not related, this week is severe weather awareness week). Two straight days of 70 degree temps in the region and mostly sunshine.
Quoting 214. RitaEvac:



Just goes to show that man has no capability to predict.....anything. Never has and never will. Can create all the technology in the world, the best minds in the world....and at the end of the day, the cards will fall as they may.
If it wasn't for all those dang variables!
225. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, NASA, University of Washington
D&T:: 201603-09;1845_-09;2035 (3 Hrs)
SAT IMG:: AniGIF, Blend of 3, final product not a public from any of the 3 aforementioned.
MORE:: See in the 1st image the purples, only colour left higher in my blended NOAA colurkey are the deep rich blues.
image host

 
ONE MORE THING:: In my next upload it'll be an interest rung anomaly or is it real of a cluster of lightning strikes seemingly moving together, i think it has to be a tower being hit by lightning or some graphic anomaly but if real WOW!.  In my next upload ~15 minutes from now.