WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

U.S. has its 23rd coolest April; 16 tornadoes confirmed from Texas outbreak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:29 PM GMT on May 17, 2013

It was an unusually cool April over much of the U.S. during April 2013, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. It was the coolest April since 1997, and ranked as the 23rd coolest April in the 119-year record for the contiguous U.S., putting the month in the coldest 20% of all Aprils on record. North Dakota had its coldest April on record, and six additional states--South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Wisconsin--had top-ten coldest Aprils on record. No state recorded a top-ten warmest April. Over three times as many record cold highs and lows occurred than record warm highs and lows during April. For the year-to-date period January - April, both temperatures and precipitation over the contiguous U.S. have been near average.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, April extremes were near average, and the year 2013 has been slightly below average for extremes. The CEI during January - April 2013 was 18.5%, and on average, about 19.5% of the contiguous U.S. experiences top-10% extreme weather as defined by the CEI.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for April 2013. North Dakota had its coldest April on record, and six additional states--South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Wisconsin--had top-ten coldest Aprils on record. No state recorded a top-ten warmest April. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 2. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for April 2013. Iowa and Michigan both had their wettest April on record, and Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin each had one of the ten wettest Aprils on record. Connecticut had a top-ten driest April. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Iowa and Michigan record their wettest Aprils
It was a very April for the continuous U.S., ranking as the 19th wettest April since 1895. Iowa and Michigan both had their wettest April on record, and Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin each had one of the ten wettest Aprils on record. The heavy precipitation in the watershed of Lake Huron and Lake Michigan caused those lakes to rise 9.8", one of the largest monthly rises on record. These lakes were at their all-time lowest water levels on record in January 2013. Drought conditions improved across the Southeast, Midwest, and along the northern and eastern periphery of the core drought areas of the Great Plains during April, but worsened for parts of the Southwest. According to the May 16 Drought Monitor report, about 48% of the U.S. is still in moderate or greater drought, down from 52% at the beginning of April. Improvement in drought conditions is expected from Northern Texas to South Dakota during May and June, but drought is expected to spread into Oregon and Idaho.

According to data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the March snow cover extent for the contiguous U.S. was the 6th largest April snow cover extent in the 47-year period of record. However, snowpack, an important water resource in the West, was dismal in part of the West, with only 18 percent of normal snowpack reported in the Sierra Nevada Mountains.


Figure 3. This image of Texas taken by the GOES East satellite at 0045Z on May 16, 2013 shows the vicinity around Granbury, TX approximately 21 minutes before an EF-4 tornado hit Granbury, Texas. Image credit: NOAA Viz Lab.

Sixteen tornadoes confirmed from Texas tornado outbreak
Sixteen tornadoes have now been confirmed from Wednesday night's tornado event in Texas (fifteen on the 15th, and one just after midnight on the 16th.) The most powerful tornado was an EF-4 with 166 - 200 mph winds that tore through Granbury, killing six and leaving seven missing. The outbreak also had a huge EF-3 tornado, 3/5 of a mile wide, that hit Cleburne, causing extensive damage and a state of emergency. The fifteen tornadoes from May 15 make it the biggest day for tornadoes in the U.S. this spring, and the highest number reported in one day since January 30, when 44 tornadoes touched down from Georgia to Indiana. The data we have on the May 15 - 16 tornadoes so far:

Wednesday, May 15, 2013:
1739 CDT  1 W Belcherville, Montague Co TX - EF?, spotter
???? CDT  Nocona Lake, Montague Co - EF?, photos
1835? CDT Millsap, Parker Co TX - EF-1, 100 mph; 5 homes significantly damaged
1841 CDT  3.5 SSE Mineral Wells, Palo Pinto Co TX - EF-0; brief; 4 NW Millsap
???? CDT  West of Annetta South, Parker Co TX - EF?, brief, from Millsap storm
???? CDT  NW Cresson, Hood Co TX - EF? - determined to be in southern Parker Co
1859 CDT  Sunset, Montague Co TX - EF-1, 100 mph, 1 injured, near Hwy 287; 5 homes damaged south of Lake Amon G. Carter, one of them destroyed
1900? CDT Mills Co TX - EF?, spotters
1922 CDT  3 E Millsap, Parker Co TX - EF-0; brief; photograph
???? CDT  Alvord, Wise Co TX - EF?, public and spotter reports
2006 CDT  Granbury, Hood Co TX - EF-4, 6 killed, dozens injured; only foundations left in places; 200 homes damaged/destroyed; 5 dozen of them Habitat for Humanity. First EF-4 in DFW area since the Lancaster tornado in 1994
2006 CDT  6 SE Granbury, Hood Co TX - EF-1, 90-100 mph; near Pecan Plantation; separate path from Granbury tornado
2130 CDT  Cleburne, Johnson Co TX - EF-3, 140 mph, 8.5 mi path, 1060 yds wide
2142 CDT  6 ESE Cleburne, Johnson Co TX - EF-0, 85 mph; separate from Cleburne tornado
2257? CDT North of Evant, Hamilton Co TX - EF?, brief; #1 of two that occurred simultaneously
2257? CDT North of Evant, Hamilton Co TX - EF?, brief; #2 of two that occurred simultaneously

Thursday, May 16, 2013:
0010 CDT  Ennis, Ellis Co TX - EF1, 90 mph, 6 mi path; significant damage in Ennis; began west of I-45 and crossed I-45 south of Ennis Ave

The latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather pattern Saturday - Tuesday. The threat will be highest on Sunday and Monday, when conditions may align to bring about a classic spring severe weather outbreak, as a powerful spring weather system gathers strength over the center of the country.

Saturday's main threat areas: northwest KS, southwest NE
Sunday : east SD, east NE, east half KS, central OK, northwest MO, west and central IA, south half MN.
Monday : central OK, east IA, northwest IL

Jeff Masters
Tornado Over Granbury, TX
Tornado Over Granbury, TX
Massive wall cloud and tornado in Granbury, TX
Huge hail
Huge hail
This hail feel just 10 minutes prior to the tornado touching down.
Texas Storms 01
Texas Storms 01
Storms over Weathorford, TX 90 miles away
Infinity Strike
Infinity Strike
not one of my better images, but pretty neat nonetheless.
Rozel, KS
Rozel, KS
This was a 15-20 minute tornado. From the initial reports, hit 1 house, no word on injuries yet.

Climate Summaries Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Tornado turning left toward area between Dale and Shawnee.
2002. ncstorm
KFOR has a tornado on screen right now..
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Just got warned. Not really strong wording in the warning.

Which is surprising. We've had >15min of continual BR debris ball. And it is tougher to get a debris signature the older way than it is to get it the new dual pol way (with CC/RHO). The radar is sampling <1000ft (it's been 250-500ft at closest to the radar), and we've had a TS with shear approaching 200kts. Very serious, and very likely is continuing to cause damage as we speak.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


What does gate-to-gate mean?
Two measurements of winds from two direction. One side is 100 knots, other is 100 knots. That equals 200 knots. That's EF5 winds. Most EF5s got 200+ knots gate-to-gate on radar, but sometimes it's EF4 or even EF3.
2005. Gearsts
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Take cover in Shawnee, Ok, large tornado bearing down on this town!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! take cover!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !
1 wasn't enough?-_-
Wow, massive tornado live on TWC!
2007. ncstorm
tornado heading to Shawnee mall..what in the world..
Power flashes on News 9.
If you're not watching TWC

Watch TWC.
News9 showing the tornado. Very large cone.
Bad Time to refuel chopper
Tornado is rain wrapped, but slightly more visible. It's a large stove pipe/wedge tornado.

Via: News 9
2013. ncstorm
oh man Helicopter needs to fuel..losing ariel coverage
Wow, the winds is traveling extremely fast around tornado on TWC. Wow.
2015. ncstorm
"winds easily 200 miles per hour"
dont have twc....whats on it?

same news 9 tornado?
Highest knots marker I've seen on GRLevel3. 170 knots.

It's going to north of Downtown Shawnee, but will come close to the airport and mall.
Quoting ncstorm:
"winds easily 200 miles per hour"
Don't cut up quotes. He said "winds could be 200 miles per hour with the radar readings we have been getting."
2020. Gearsts
I need links!
Another wall cloud on the storm...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Two measurements of winds from two direction. One side is 100 knots, other is 100 knots. That equals 200 knots. That's EF5 winds. Most EF5s got 200+ knots gate-to-gate on radar, but sometimes it's EF4 or even EF3.

No! You don't add them together to get the wind speed in a singular direction. You add them together to get the shear.
Shear does not equal wind speed. And elevated wind speed does not equal wind speed on the ground.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
dont have twc....whats on it?

same news 9 tornado?


Live shots of tornado
2024. ncstorm
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Don't cut up quotes. He said "winds could be 200 miles per hour with the radar readings we have been getting."


he said exactly what I posted..but thanks anyway..
Another tornado on the ground heading for Des Moines, Iowa.
Tornado warned storm with a tornado history heading towards Des Moines!
Quoting ScottLincoln:

No! You don't add them together to get the wind speed in a singular direction. You add them together to get the shear.
Shear does not equal wind speed. And elevated wind speed does not equal wind speed on the ground.
Guess I still got a lot to learn in college. GEEZ!
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Two measurements of winds from two direction. One side is 100 knots, other is 100 knots. That equals 200 knots. That's EF5 winds. Most EF5s got 200+ knots gate-to-gate on radar, but sometimes it's EF4 or even EF3.


So gate-to-gate is the net vector differential. Thanks!
going to cross the interstate
Quoting ncstorm:


he said exactly what I posted..but thanks anyway..
No he did not. The word "easily" was never used.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Guess I still got a lot to learn in college. GEEZ!

Sorry to be somewhat stern but that was a very important distinction that needed to be made. That assumption from radar data needed to be corrected quickly.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

No! You don't add them together to get the wind speed in a singular direction. You add them together to get the shear.
Shear does not equal wind speed. And elevated wind speed does not equal wind speed on the ground.


Is it the net vector differential?
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
639 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

OKC125-200015-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-130520T0015Z/
POTTAWATOMIE OK-
639 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY...

AT 635 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
LOCATED NEAR DALE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHAWNEE...JOHNSON...DALE AND AYDELOTTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU
CANNOT GET UNDERGROUND GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A
STURDY BUILDING NOW.

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY
BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM DOORS AND WINDOWS.
&&

LAT...LON 3531 9705 3541 9708 3542 9706 3546 9678
3530 9678
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 242DEG 24KT 3537 9701

$$
2036. ncstorm
just excellent coverage today from the professionals..
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


So gate-to-gate is the net vector differential. Thanks!
I'm wrong. Look at Scott's explanation to me.
Yeah it's big.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


So gate-to-gate is the net vector differential. Thanks!

Gate-to-gate is used when describing the velocities of adjacent bins. Sometimes in large tornadoes near the radar, the edge of the circulation can be larger than 1 bin wide, and in that case gate-to-gate would not be helpful. In that case, you could calculate shear using peak-to-peak.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Sorry to be somewhat stern but that was a very important distinction that needed to be made. That assumption from radar data needed to be corrected quickly.
Understandable. I would rather be correct than wrong.
2041. ncstorm
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
No he did not. The word "easily" was never used.


man..Im not tying up the blog with this..please keep it moving with informative posts..thank you very much..you can send off for the transcript and prove me wrong..
News 9 is showing a massive wedge!
I cannot see over the trees but the tornado may be a wedge. Could very well be a cone as well.
Thanks ScottLincoln and Bluestorm5!
Dangerous tornado
Quoting ScottLincoln:

No! You don't add them together to get the wind speed in a singular direction. You add them together to get the shear.
Shear does not equal wind speed. And elevated wind speed does not equal wind speed on the ground.


Correct. Think of it like one would for flight level winds during a recon (not exactly, but you get what I'm saying). Not what we're getting at the surface.
Quoting Ameister12:
News 9 is showing a massive wedge!

Not quite as large anymore, but still extremely violent.
Reed Timmer and Jim Cantore about to go for an intercept.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Gate-to-gate is used when describing the velocities of adjacent bins. Sometimes in large tornadoes near the radar, the edge of the circulation can be larger than 1 bin wide, and in that case gate-to-gate would not be helpful. In that case, you could calculate shear using peak-to-peak.


So gate to gate is a measure of adjacent shear! OK I'm going to copy down the comments and email them to myself.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reed Timmer and Jim Cantore about to go for an intercept.
You know any way I could get a TWC feed?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reed Timmer and Jim Cantore about to go for an intercept.


what the...
2053. Gearsts
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reed Timmer and Jim Cantore about to go for an intercept.
Where are you watching this??
Shawnee Mall is right on I-40 directly north of Shawnee. Thinking it'll miss but...
Quoting Gearsts:
Where are you watching this??
twc
Are you kidding me, TWC???

Still strong tornado on here:

http://www.news9.com/Global/category.asp?C=207228 &BannerId=988
2057. ncstorm
Shawnee mall about to take a direct hit..
Tornado headed straight for Shawnee Mall....
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You know any way I could get a TWC feed?

I have no idea. They usually have a livestream page up but they're using it for The Tornado Hunt's live pictures, which aren't anywhere near this thing right now.
2 tornadoes on the ground with this storm
anyone have a link for a TWC live feed? watchfomny.com has one, but its offline
Helicopter imagery indicating a potential satellite tornado...
2063. ncstorm
two tornados on the ground near Shawnee..
They are reporting two tornadoes now on the storm. Not sure if a sat.
G2G is near 200mph, I know it isn't the ground wind speed, but I'm just pointing it out. Still large and dangerous.
Wundermap not even showing the tornado!
Cars flipped on highway according to Reed Timmer... at least 6 cars.
Looking at map, Shawnee Mall is 5 miles east of tornado on I-40. Should be fine unless tornado makes direct turn to east.
2069. ncstorm
major damage on 140..cars flipped according to chasers..
Rotation looks to be weakening but the tornado seems to be going strong.
2071. Gearsts
Is there a stream for Reed Timmer?
Could have 3 tornadoes soon.

Is that a hook echo behind a hook echo behind a hook echo?

Quoting aquak9:
is News9 the same as KFOR?
No. Ch 9 is CBS. KFOR is NBC. The lead mets have different styles of delivery. Both are excellent with severe weather as are their storm trackers/chasers. Channel 9's lead meteorologist, Gary England, has been there close to 40 years and is getting ready to retire.

Sorry. Didn't see this earlier. I was making potato salad.
:0
2075. ncstorm
Quoting Gearsts:
Is there a stream for Reed Timmer?


he is on KFOR...
Quoting Hurricane1216:
Is that a hook echo behind a hook echo behind a hook echo?

Appears to be. Small tornado is shooting way off to the east.
Central OK apparently was the hot spot. As the storms get east, they start to weaken.

On another note, an oddly-shaped supercell is moving into the Des Moines metro area, with at least a straight line wind threat around a circulation that apparently produced a few weak tornadoes already.
I 40 and OK 177 several cars destroyed, multiple serious injuries, One possible fatal!
2080. ncstorm
Shawnee Mall has shelters built in there..evacuating people there..
Oh my! Look at all these tornadoes, watching the one on TWC heading into more populated area. My prayers out to the people in the path of these storms. Head into your storm cellars and save your lives, always remember structures can be replaced, your life not.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
No. Ch 9 is CBS. KFOR is NBC. The lead mets have different styles of delivery. Both are excellent with severe weather as are their storm trackers/chasers. Channel 9's lead meteorologist, Gary England, has been there close to 40 years and is getting ready to retire.

Sorry. Didn't see this earlier. I was making potato salad.
:0
KFOR isn't doing good today, however. They totally failed with the coverage when storm was in Norman.
2083. ncstorm
KFOR has visuals of BOTH tornados..
Same areas will be hit tomorrow.
mikatnight this vid clip is for you regarding our conversation last night.

Rotation looking much weaker on radar, hopefully it's fading out.
2087. flsky
kfor live
http://kfor.com/on-air/live-streaming/
Rotation looking much weaker on radar, hopefully it's fading out.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Same areas will be hit tomorrow.


Even more, including me and most of the rest Michigan.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Rotation looking much weaker on radar, hopefully it's fading out.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
Rotation looking much weaker on radar, hopefully it's fading out.

Well that just happened.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Well that just happened.

That's because the second was just a copy and paste of the first, lol.
Mind you, that there is a tornado warning for the northwestern suburbs of Des Moines, Iowa at the same time.

here comes more
One Fatality in Dale trailer park with many injuries
Quoting hurricanehunter27:

Well that just happened.
Freaky.
Please don't trash KFOR. When NWS Norman's survey the track of this cell, we will know when and where tornado(es) touched earth.

Few people on Earth can do what OKC TV mets do, and these mets are the best in the world at what they do.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Well this escalated quickly, large tornado NE of Norman. KFOR was definitely hyping the situation earlier and basically making stuff up.

And you know that how? I'd listen to Mike Morgan any day over ScottLincoln or you.

Bottom line, our TV mets in OKC save lives on a day like today. And that is what matters. I'm done talking about this KFOR crap garbage.
2097. ncstorm
Fatality in trailer park..
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 657 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF JOHNSON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRAGUE AND CENTERVIEW.
Fatalities being reported near the town of Dale. Was in a trailer park.
Just heard of a fatality in a trailer park, don't know if it's confirmed.
2101. ncstorm
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Please don't trash KFOR. When NWS Norman's survey the track of this cell, we will know when and where tornado(es) touched earth.

Few people on Earth can do what OKC TV mets do, and these mets are the best in the world at what they do. And you know that how? I'd listen to Mike Morgan any day over ScottLincoln or you.

Bottom line, our TV mets in OKC save lives on a day like today. And that is what matters. I'm done talking about this KFOR crap.


Barefoot..Im really disappointed in the blog today..just irresponsibility from a lot of bloggers here today..
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Please don't trash KFOR. When NWS Norman's survey the track of this cell, we will know when and where tornado(es) touched earth.

Few people on Earth can do what OKC TV mets do, and these mets are the best in the world at what they do. And you know that how? I'd listen to Mike Morgan any day over ScottLincoln or you.

Bottom line, our TV mets in OKC save lives on a day like today. And that is what matters. I'm done talking about this KFOR crap.
ScottLincoln works for the NWS. He is a bit more specialized then your average TV met.
Channel 9 now reporting one confirmed fatality at a trailer park near Shawnee Reservoir, several injuries as well, per PD... reports of cars and semis overturned on the I40
Quoting ncstorm:


Barefoot..Im really disappointed in the blog today..just irresponsibility from a lot of bloggers here today..

I strongly disagree with that. I think the blog has been at its best today, rising to the occasion as usual when extreme weather threatens. Great job by many, it's been a lot of fun tracking so far today.
Quoting Hurricane1216:
Mind you, that there is a tornado warning for the northwestern suburbs of Des Moines, Iowa at the same time.


Circulation is right over the WFO just west of Saylorville Lake. There appeared to be an interruption in the L2 feed from KDMX a bit ago, but it just came back.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Few people on Earth can do what OKC TV mets do, and these mets are the best in the world at what they do. And you know that how? I'd listen to Mike Morgan any day over ScottLincoln or you.

Listen to whoever you'd like, whoever you think is best for you, I don't care. But that is completely independent from whether or not a meteorologist is being scientifically accurate.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Please don't trash KFOR. When NWS Norman's survey the track of this cell, we will know when and where tornado(es) touched earth.

Few people on Earth can do what OKC TV mets do, and these mets are the best in the world at what they do. And you know that how? I'd listen to Mike Morgan any day over ScottLincoln or you.

Bottom line, our TV mets in OKC save lives on a day like today. And that is what matters. I'm done talking about this KFOR crap.
I'm sorry, but Mike was MAKING stuff up when storm was in Norman. He was saying derbis ball when there's nothing.
Prague, Oklahoma is in the Doom NOW!!!!!!
Quoting ncstorm:


Barefoot..Im really disappointed in the blog today..just irresponsibility from a lot of bloggers here today..

What are you talking about? Most of the bloggers here did an excellent job today.
I just want to see the models runs and I'm done for tonight..Hope their isn't to many fatalities.
Reed Timmer works for KFOR. Apparently TWC is using KFOR's chopper and chaser feeds.
Storm is starting to recognize.
Quoting ncstorm:


Barefoot..Im really disappointed in the blog today..just irresponsibility from a lot of bloggers here today..
Well, KFOR need to hire a new meteorologist. The one they got was making stuff up when there's no proof. Derbis ball on radar when the helicopter was clearly showing no tornado.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Prague, Oklahoma is in the Doom NOW!!!!!!
Tornado isn't on ground right now, but it's cycling.
Prayers!
The supercell that was in northeastern OKC earlier today is headed for Tulsa, probably less of a tornado threat but still dangerous.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
ScottLincoln worked for the NWS. He is a bit more specialized then your average TV met.

works for
And I wouldn't say that. I don't "specialize" in severe weather or radar meteorology, at least from the standpoint of education or what my day-to-day job entails.
But I have been trained to use NEXRAD radar data as a tool for severe weather tracking, analyze radar data in my spare time for a vast majority of outbreaks and have seen literally hundreds of tornado and severe weather cases, and have given a few training sessions on using radar algorithms.
I would argue that I have a reasonably good handle on what is going on, both the strengths and limitations of our data during realtime situations. But it is important to be clear on my background.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I just want to see the models runs and I'm done for tonight..Hope their isn't to many fatalities.

xD I'm sorry wash. Every time I see your comment and go to respond I get distracted by something with the tornado.

12z GFS animation

18z GFS animation
2118. ncstorm
Quoting Ameister12:

What are you talking about? Most of the bloggers here did an excellent job today.


putting down a news organization that has been doing this far longer than some of yall been in this world is not an excellent job..bloggers from here were on their twitter feed telling them they are wrong is not an excellent job..



OK stop fighting about whether KFOR or Channel9 is better or which people should watch.... all we need to worry about is that there are tornadoes on the ground. Watch whoever you want and keep these opinions to urself so we dont keep arguing over this VERY stupid argument
Quoting ScottLincoln:

works for
And I wouldn't say that. I don't "specialize" in severe weather or radar meteorology, at least from the standpoint of education or what my day-to-day job entails.
But I have been trained to use NEXRAD radar data as a tool for severe weather tracking, analyze radar data in my spare time for a vast majority of outbreaks and have scene literally hundreds of tornado and severe weather cases, and have given a few training sessions on using radar algorithms.
I would argue that I have a reasonably good handle on what is going on, both the strengths and libations of our data during realtime situations. But it is important to be clear on my background.
Which NWS? And what do you specialize?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

xD I'm sorry wash. Every time I see your comment and go to respond I get distracted by something with the tornado.

12z GFS animation

18z GFS animation
That's okay.Thanks for the model runs.
2122. ncstorm
Quoting ScottLincoln:

works for
And I wouldn't say that. I don't "specialize" in severe weather or radar meteorology, at least from the standpoint of education or what my day-to-day job entails.
But I have been trained to use NEXRAD radar data as a tool for severe weather tracking, analyze radar data in my spare time for a vast majority of outbreaks and have scene literally hundreds of tornado and severe weather cases, and have given a few training sessions on using radar algorithms.
I would argue that I have a reasonably good handle on what is going on, both the strengths and libations of our data during realtime situations. But it is important to be clear on my background.
KFOR is owned by NBC, so is the Weather Channel, makes sense why there using their chopper feed IMO
Tornado is on the ground again!
Quoting ScottLincoln:

works for
And I wouldn't say that. I don't "specialize" in severe weather or radar meteorology, at least from the standpoint of education or what my day-to-day job entails.
But I have been trained to use NEXRAD radar data as a tool for severe weather tracking, analyze radar data in my spare time for a vast majority of outbreaks and have scene literally hundreds of tornado and severe weather cases, and have given a few training sessions on using radar algorithms.
I would argue that I have a reasonably good handle on what is going on, both the strengths and libations of our data during realtime situations. But it is important to be clear on my background.
From the crap that KFOR was spewing out you still probably have better training. Either that or you are able to use what you have learned better. I always find you post to be the most informative of all the bloggers on severe weather.
Quoting Doppler22:
OK stop fighting about whether KFOR or Channel9 is better.... all we need to worry about is that there are tornadoes on the ground. Watch whoever you want and keep these opinions to urself so we dont keep arguing over this VERY stupid argument
We're not saying Channel 9 is better... we're saying KFOR made errors.
Briefly in another topic,we have the second wave introduced around 30W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N30W EQ31W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE SHOWS A GOOD SIGNAL IN 700 MB STREAMLINES AND SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS. CURRENTLY NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N60W TO 5N61W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS PRIMARILY OVER SOUTH AMERICA...BUT THE MOISTURE
SIGNAL IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY EXTENDS UP TO 15N.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATE STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS OVER LAND
WITHIN 200 NM TO EITHER SIDE. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
HAS ALMOST REACHED THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
I have exams tomorrow and I suppose I will never been an actual meteorologist if I don't study so I will pop in from time to time but Im off for the time being Have fun guys!
Quoting ncstorm:


putting down a news organization that has been doing this far longer than some of yall been in this world is not an excellent job..bloggers from here were on their twitter feed telling them they are wrong is not an excellent job..




There would be no reason to "put a news organization that has been doing this far longer than some of y'all [us] have been in this world" down if they weren't presenting inaccurate information.

Higher reflectiivty + no rotation does not equal debris ball.

There's no way to tell the size of a tornado by radar.

You can get a pretty good estimate most of the time, but you don't say on AIR as a METEOROLOGIST that, "this is a mile wide F4".

And you definitely don't argue with ground truth. If there's no tornado, there's no tornado. It doesn't get much simpler than that.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Well, KFOR need to hire a new meteorologist. The one they got was making stuff up when there's no proof. Derbis ball on radar when the helicopter was clearly showing no tornado.

There was a debris ball numerous times, but there were times that KFOR kept saying that something was absolutely happening based solely on radar and arguing with their ground truth. And the thing they claimed was just certain from radar... well it was an exaggeration at best.
The storm clearly was capable of producing a tornado. And it was in an environment where a tornado could form quickly. But that doesnt mean that they should continually say a big wedge is about to happen right now over and over. Nor does it mean that they should rate tornadoes based upon nothing but tornado size from a chopper and radar data.
Pottawatomie County sheriff dispatcher said the office can't confirm the fatality and they are still conducting search and rescue.
I had never heard OKC feeds before and I am disappointed by the hype and inaccurate information they put out. Michael Spann (sp?) in Alabama was much better 2 years ago during the outbreak there.
Might be a bit off topic, but the reason for the captioning on the streams:

FCC-mandated requirement to caption IP-based internet video streams. This requirement, with a compliance deadline of March 30, 2013, means that we must caption all live video programming.

This is noted on KFOR's live stream descripiton
Storm may be preparing do drop a large tornado. Chasers reporting a tornado on the ground.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

There was a debris ball numerous times, but there were times that KFOR kept saying that something was absolutely happening based solely on radar and arguing with their ground truth. And the thing they claimed was just certain from radar... well it was an exaggeration at best.
The storm clearly was capable of producing a tornado. And it was in an environment where a tornado could form quickly. But that doesnt mean that they should continually say a big wedge is about to happen right now over and over. Nor does it mean that they should rate tornadoes based upon nothing but tornado size from a chopper and radar data.


Ahh, gotcha.
I don't know the validity of this report, but I don't like the report of earth scouring...

@spotternetwork 2m
12:08AM UTC Other<-Spotr 2 miles SSE of DALE, OK-Current position is in debris path, earth scoured, no poles or structures left at current..
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Might be a bit off topic, but the reason for the captioning on the streams:

FCC-mandated requirement to caption IP-based internet video streams. This requirement, with a compliance deadline of March 30, 2013, means that we must caption all live video programming.

This is noted on KFOR's live stream descripiton
Because deaf people like me want them. We deserves to be informed as well.
Channel9... the damage... oh my ___
2139. ncstorm
News 9 showing damage of Shawnee
ncstorm, disappointed in the blog today???? Blog has been great I think. I don't have cable and I love the info I get from many of the great bloggers we have. Scott Lincoln occasionally drives me crazy with his correct every wrong statement ways; but the guy is amazing when it comes to his knowledge and expertise of severe weather events and general weather/climate knowledge. I thank everyone who posts the great pictures, updates, and up to the minute info. I could go to a lot of weather sites, but I stay here because I think it's the best. Thanks to all who make that happen.
Quoting Doppler22:
Channel9... the damage... oh my ___
That is brutal.
2143. aerojad
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I had never heard OKC feeds before and I am disappointed by the hype and inaccurate information they put out. Michael Spann (sp?) in Alabama was much better 2 years ago during the outbreak there.
Absolutely agree. That (Spann's) coverage was truly professional.
It's a mobile home park... but it has been obliterated. (Shawnee)

wow @ chopper over shawnee news9
Massive destruction near Shawnee at a trailer park! My god...
Channel 9 Helicopter showing damage on east side of Shawnee Reservoir. Trailer park absolutely obliterated. At least one fatality occurred there.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
713 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 709 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
9 MILES WEST OF PADEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS LIFE
THREATENING TORNADO IS CAPABLE OF EXTREME DAMAGE!

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PADEN
AND WELTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND! THIS IS A
LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! IF
NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3558 9663 3565 9663 3575 9643 3555 9631
3546 9663 3547 9663 3557 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 242DEG 24KT 3551 9670

$$
Channel 9 chopper showing absolutely horrific shots of damage from the trailer camp near Shawnee Reservoir... looks bad...
I feel like I missed something...don't worry, I read back threw the pages, now for dinner. Those tornadoes need to wait until I get back.
2151. aerojad
Here comes the damage scenes :(

Quoting Doppler22:
Channel9... the damage... oh my ___

Yeah, wow. Looks like some of the worst of the day, from what I've seen so far. I cant tell if those were well-built homes or not, but that looks like the potential for EF2+, if they were single family residences built of typical construction.
2153. ncstorm
GOD help those in Shawnee..
I hope most folks in that mobile home park cleared out before that beast hit....
Not sure if the two supercells we are tracking will be able to cycle. Appears to be weaker and the further east seems to be more stable.
Tornado is back on the ground.
Remember, it's usually EF2-EF3 damage if mobile park is completely destroyed... but NWS will look at the area and say the final rating.
2158. ncstorm
Quoting Tribucanes:
ncstorm, disappointed in the blog today???? Blog has been great I think. I don't have cable and I love the info I get from many of the great bloggers we have. Scott Lincoln occasionally drives me crazy with his correct every wrong statement ways; but the guy is amazing when it comes to his knowledge and expertise of severe weather events and general weather/climate knowledge. I thank everyone who posts the great pictures, updates, and up to the minute info. I could go to a lot of weather sites, but I stay here because I think it's the best. Thanks to all who make that happen.


if you lived in OKC today, you wouldnt be saying that..information from some has been great but there has been information put out there stating news organizations were wrong during a crisis moment..wrong place and time to beat one's chest..Im leaving this alone..my apologies to the blog ..
Bethel Acres....


According to the warning, there is still a confirmed tornado on the ground north of Des Moines as well.
2161. ncstorm
2,931 (2011)
Bethel Acres, Population

awful damage today..
2162. aerojad
Truck ripped off an overpass it appears

It looks like people may have tried to take shelter under the overpass.
Semi thrown off an overpass:

Crazy at the overpass with the big truck thrown off, split open & that red car put up under the overpass up the side..
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
713 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 709 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
9 MILES WEST OF PADEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS LIFE
THREATENING TORNADO IS CAPABLE OF EXTREME DAMAGE!

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...PADEN
AND WELTY.
Why do tornado's seem to ALWAYS target trailer parks? Must be the flat land masses they are built on.
That's the one.. You can't see the red car.
And this is why you don't take shelter under an overpass.
Likely EF-2 to EF-3 damage near Shawnee on I-40. Brick houses is missing roof and part of walls.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
According to the warning, there is still a confirmed tornado on the ground north of Des Moines as well.

I think the Iowa tornado situation is much less of a deal than the OK situation. It looked like the potential for a tornado moving into the NW sections of the metro area, then it went through the cone of silence for KDMX, and the storms appeared to congeal into a complex with straight line winds as the primary threat. I'm not sure what they were seeing to confirm the tornado via radar, as the tornadoes in OK were much more obviously confirmed through radar.
It looks like a QLCS situation with small, brief circulations on the leading edge of the strong winds. One of these circulations just passed my father's place.
Corrected because it appears the tornado was confirmed by an actual spotter report, not from radar as a first suggested.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Why do tornado's seem to ALWAYS target trailer parks? Must be the flat land masses they are built on.

It's not that they're targeted, they're just more vulnerable.
One thing I really need to improve at when It comes the meteorology, it's forecasting, so I was wondering what you all are thinking about tomorrow's event.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Likely EF-2 to EF-3 damage near Shawnee on I-40. Brick houses is missing roof and part of walls.

Does seem that way. And unfortunately, numerous cars were relocated from the interchange there, with some cars damaged under the overpass. I'm hoping that people were not seriously injured seeking shelter underneath.
During higher-end tornadoes, people are frequently injured seeking shelter underneath overpasses. I think I read that during the 1999 OKC tornado, someone was killed each time a tornado hit an overpass.
Quoting Ameister12:
One thing I really need to improve at when It comes the meteorology, it's forecasting, so I was wondering what you all are thinking about tomorrow's event.

I believe it should be around the same as today. Affecting a larger area though. Much of the same area as well.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Does seem that way. And unfortunately, numerous cars were relocated from the interchange there, with some cars damaged under the overpass. I'm hoping that people were not seriously injured seeking shelter underneath.
During higher-end tornadoes, people are frequently injured seeking shelter underneath overpasses. I think I read that during the 1999 OKC tornado, someone was killed each time a tornado hit an overpass.

IIRC, there were 3 or 4 fatalities total from 3 different overpasses during the 1999 OKC tornado.
That damage...D:
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Does seem that way. And unfortunately, numerous cars were relocated from the interchange there, with some cars damaged under the overpass. I'm hoping that people were not seriously injured seeking shelter underneath.
During higher-end tornadoes, people are frequently injured seeking shelter underneath overpasses. I think I read that during the 1999 OKC tornado, someone was killed each time a tornado hit an overpass.
I read the same thing. There was an fatality in three overpass during I-44/Moore tornado. Reed Timmer himself made the same mistake taking shelter under overpass when he was 18. Tornado turned at the last minute, saving Reed's life.
I think this video from 1991 put overpasses=shelter in the public consciousness. As Thomas More said, if you get wrong information in your head it is almost impossible to get it out.

Or as Mark Twain said "It ain't the things that people don't know that cause trouble. It's the things they know that just ain't so."

2181. hydrus
Storm in southern KS has separated from the line and may be producing a tornado.
Very interesting structure.

One home is completely gone to pavement. Don't know if former trailer home or well built home to tell the rating. At least EF2, though.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Storm in southern KS has separated from the line and may be producing a tornado.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
728 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 724 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOLINE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOLINE...ELK FALLS AND HOWARD.
The OK tornado still has decent rotation, is completely rain-wrapped, and is moving toward Welty.

A cell in S KS is capable of producing a tornado.

Finally, a confirmed tornado is on the ground near Huxley, IA.
The trees in Shawnee are at least partially debarked.
Another home gone down to pavement. Don't know if trailer park, small house, or well-built house. Likely small house. Just wow....

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 183...

VALID 200013Z - 200115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 183 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
WITH THE GREATEST NEAR-TERM RISK FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND HAIL OVER CNTRL IA.

DISCUSSION...A NOTABLE INCREASE IN TSTMS HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE
PAST HOUR BETWEEN OMA AND DSM...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF A VORTICITY MAXIMUM RAPIDLY MOVING NEWD THROUGH NWRN IA. AS OF
2355Z...THE MOST INTENSE STORM /A SUPERCELL/ WAS LOCATED OVER DALLAS
COUNTY IA WHICH HAS RECENTLY PRODUCED A TORNADO. GIVEN A
MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHICH COINCIDES WITH A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWEST 4 KM AGL BEFORE VEERING SLIGHTLY TO SSWLY AND
INCREASING TO 50-60 KT IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...THE THREAT FOR
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL PERSIST OVER CNTRL IA THIS
EVENING. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
INTENSE/PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS.

OVER ERN IA...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ALONG
THE MS RIVER NEAR MLI. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER
THAN POINTS TO THE WEST...THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..MEAD.. 05/20/2013


ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 42229623 42339029 41549002 40599050 40319093 40439204
40729316 40629534 41289577 42229623
Quoting ncstorm:


Barefoot..Im really disappointed in the blog today..just irresponsibility from a lot of bloggers here today..
Thanks. I'm real sad somebody went on twitter to contradict our local TV mets. Troll on twitter. For shame.

I read back and I have a couple more things to say.
Quoting ScottLincoln:
Wow. KFOR is insane with the exaggerations. They are really distorting our knowledge of severe weather and radar meteorology.


And KFOR has no way to know that.
I'm saving this here in case it gets removed for its libelous nature. We'll see when the surveys come out whether the cell that approached Norman today formed a wedge, perhaps became an EF4, had a debris ball at Lake Tbird, and/or whatever else it was you said KFOR was wrong about. (ADD: And you work for NWS, albeit as a hydrologist not a met. You should know better.)
Quoting ScottLincoln:
KFOR has been so distracted by the weak, broad rotation in the Norman area that they missed the stronger circulation almost hitting Agra head-on from the supercell with a history of producing damage.
KFOR was on that cell (ADD: north OK/Agra) before it initially touched down in Edmond. All 4 of our OKC stations were. I'd hope coverage of a cell that might be dropping a tor on Norman would take precedence over one in a fairly rural area. Many folks in rural OK follow severe on the net. I hope they weren't reading here today.

Sorry, I know I said I was done talking about KFOR, butt baby...
I had to address some comments I saw when I read back. You see, that Norman area tornadic cell formed south and west of me (ADD: I saw it go up when I told you all I had to go out and look at the sky.) so I had to pay attention and I didn't have time to address these comments earlier.

Now I am done discussing KFOR except to say some of you ought to be ashamed of yourselves.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
742 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

OKC037-107-200100-
/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-130520T0100Z/
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
742 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
OKFUSKEE AND SOUTHERN CREEK COUNTIES...

AT 739 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ROTATION
WAS LOCATED NEAR WELTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM
PRODUCED A TORNADO WEST OF PRAGUE...AND ANOTHER TORNADO IS OCCURRING
OR IMMINENT.

THIS STORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER NOW! IF NO
UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR. MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES SHOULD BE ABANDONED FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS!

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
STORY IA-MARSHALL IA-JASPER IA-
743 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN JASPER...
SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHEASTERN STORY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

AT 739 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STATE CENTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STATE CENTER...ST. ANTHONY...MELBOURNE...CLEMONS...HAVERHILL AND
LAUREL.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
748 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN OKFUSKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN CREEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 743 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTH OF WELTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH. THIS STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO WEST OF PRAGUE AND MAY PRODUCE
ANOTHER TORNADO AT ANY TIME.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SLICK
AND BEGGS.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Thanks. I'm real sad somebody went on twitter to contradict our local TV mets. Troll on twitter. For shame.

I read back and I have a couple more things to say.
I'm saving this here in case it gets removed for its libelous nature. We'll see when the surveys come out whether the cell that approached Norman today formed a wedge, perhaps became an EF4, had a debris ball at Lake Tbird, and/or whatever else it was you said KFOR was wrong about. KFOR was on that cell before it initially touched down in Edmond. All 4 of our OKC stations were. I'd hope coverage of a cell that might be dropping a tor on Norman would take precedence over one in a fairly rural area. Many folks in rural OK follow severe on the net. I hope they weren't reading here today.

Sorry, I know I said I was done talking about KFOR, butt baby...
I had to address some comments I saw when I read back. You see, that Norman area tornadic cell formed south and west of me, so I had to pay attention and I didn't have time to address these comments earlier.

Now I am done discussing KFOR except to say some of you ought to be ashamed of yourselves.
You should be ashamed for defending a station that was making false statements at the time. I can understand why you feel attachment to your local mets but KFOR was flat out incorrect of there being debris balls at moments along with exaggerating events greatly at times. Knowing what a debris signature is on radar should be a simple task for a meteorologist. They were making these statements before the tornado formed at lake thunderbird.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Thanks. I'm real sad somebody went on twitter to contradict our local TV mets. Troll on twitter. For shame.

I read back and I have a couple more things to say.
I'm saving this here in case it gets removed for its libelous nature. We'll see when the surveys come out whether the cell that approached Norman today formed a wedge, perhaps became an EF4, had a debris ball at Lake Tbird, and/or whatever else it was you said KFOR was wrong about. KFOR was on that cell before it initially touched down in Edmond. All 4 of our OKC stations were. I'd hope coverage of a cell that might be dropping a tor on Norman would take precedence over one in a fairly rural area. Many folks in rural OK follow severe on the net. I hope they weren't reading here today.

Sorry, I know I said I was done talking about KFOR, butt baby...
I had to address some comments I saw when I read back. You see, that Norman area tornadic cell formed south and west of me, so I had to pay attention and I didn't have time to address these comments earlier.

Now I am done discussing KFOR except to say some of you ought to be ashamed of yourselves.

Please quote my posts from earlier. You can do it again and again if you wish. Because I have yet to see where anything I posted was inaccurate. I never said the storm would not produce a tornado. And in fact, I believe I was posting about the tornado once it did form near Lake Thunderbird and was lofting large amounts of water airborne, such that it affected the radar return from KTLX. For the areas between Lake Thunderbird and Shawnee, it is entirely possible that the damage will end up being EF3/ EF3-plus . I'm sure you'll see my posts about the strong peak-to-peak shear, and consistent debris ball in BR, and the consistent debris in the dual pol data.
If you want to start talking libel, perhaps you could at least read all of my posts first... starting with say, page 38 or 39.
From what I've seen in Shawnee area, high-end EF3 damage to low-end EF4 would be my guess. We'll see when NWS crew do their job.
Cells seem to be steadily weakening. Tornadoes for the most part should be done for the night.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0711
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN WI INTO NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 200046Z - 200145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED TO THE
EAST OF TORNADO WATCHES 180 AND 183 LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...THOUGH A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z DVN AND ILX SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT THE LOCAL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING OWING TO STEEP
LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST PBL WHERE LOWEST 100-MB
MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 13.5 G/KG WERE OBSERVED. THOUGH SFC
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL...THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH
THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE CAP SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE
INSTABILITY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS SUCH...EXPECT ONGOING
BOWING TSTM COMPLEX OVER NWRN IL TO PERSIST...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 40-50
KT NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WHERE WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL BE ENHANCED. GIVEN A STEADY STRENGTHENING TO THE MID AND
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELD...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

..MEAD/CORFIDI.. 05/20/2013
2199. hydrus
The 1991 Andover tornado at McConnell Air force Base..Some of the best footage ever...Link
Why are some of you so upset? KFOR did indeed exaggerate several times today, but every news station is guilty of passing along false reports, and exaggerating information. Not a big deal, and definitely nothing to fight about.
Alright, im leaving for tonight... I shall see everyone tomorrow. Have a good night
Quoting Doppler22:
Alright, im leaving for tonight... I shall see everyone tomorrow. Have a good night

G'night Doppler.
Paramaters are rebounding behind the storm. CAPE, Sig TORN, Shear, moisture, and temp are on the way up around OKC again
Oklahoma City metro has had a rough one this evening.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
...libelous....



Wow. Someone needs to quit being a troll and get a life.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
757 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
SOUTHERN WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 753 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF FALL RIVER...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUFFALO...NEW ALBANY...COYVILLE...BENEDICT AND ROSE.
Moderate risk continues throughout the night.




Boy, Tulsa has gotten really lucky today. 2 tornado producing supercells were heading in their general direction and completely dissipated before even hitting the city.
we have some new initiation just south of OKC
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That is a mighty big low there, geeze.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Wow. Someone needs to quit being a troll and get a life.

It's actually kind of funny. I should have started keeping track of the number of times I've been accused of being fake, or "not really from the NWS" or "just a hydrologist," or not as educated as some blogger someone found on the internet... on and on.

I've gone back through my posts, re-read the relevant ones, and made sure that I'd made corrections where appropriate. And I still stand by the posts I've gone through. I think people who read through them all and know the context of the situation can judge accordingly.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
807 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 802 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ARGO FAY...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LANARK AROUND 820 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE
QUAD CITIES.

&&

LAT...LON 4211 8982 4193 8992 4193 8997 4200 9012
4219 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 212DEG 35KT 4204 8997

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$
Here's a History of the overpass thing from NWS Norman. may 3, 1999 wass not the first time fatalities happened but it was the tornado that prompted the powers that be to address the safety issue.

Other interesting tornado trivia. May 3, 1999 was the first time NWS put these words in a warning: TORNADO EMERGENCY.
I can't believe people are arguing over a T.V station :D that's not even locally theirs.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Moderate risk continues throughout the night.





Thoughts on tomorrow? Could it be just as bad as tonight, or not quite as severe when it comes to tornadoes.
2219. ncstorm
Quoting ScottLincoln:

It's actually kind of funny. I should have started keeping track of the number of times I've been accused of being fake, or "not really from the NWS" or "just a hydrologist," or not as educated as some blogger someone found on the internet... on and on.

I've gone back through my posts, re-read the relevant ones, and made sure that I'd made corrections where appropriate. And I still stand by the posts I've gone through. I think people who read through them all and know the context of the situation can judge accordingly.


if you stand by your posts, then why did you make corrections??..however you want to spin it, you were wrong today in discrediting a news organization during a terrible situation where people were getting information..im sorry Scott, you work for the NWS, look at it if a hurricane was approaching landfall and someone was one here stating that the NWS was exaggerating and overblowing their forecasts..wouldnt you take offense at that and the blogger posting it?..
Just reminding everyone you can hop onto the WU weather chat so you don't have to keep refreshing the blog page!

Weather Chat
that neighborhood is completely a mobile home park.
Tomorrow looks like nearly a repeat of today. Perhaps the threat will be slightly farther south and east.
Listening to the guy who got under the overpass via the Channel 9 feed, I hope pple realize it was the prayer not the overpass that saved him.....
ScottLincoln I am not an expert but I did listen to
[ed] James Spann before and these OKC on-air meteorologists/presenters just do not measure up to him. I was really surprised. OKC gets as much severe weather/tornadoes as anywhere and I expected their on-air broadcasts to be professional and accurate and they fell short of those standards.
2226. aquak9
Quoting weatherbro:
that neighborhood is completely a mobile home park.


you mean, "was"
2227. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can't believe people are arguing over a T.V station :D that's not even locally theirs.


no one is arguing over a TV station..its the discrediting of a TV station during a heighten moment..I cant understand how the blog is condoning this behavior..
Quoting ncstorm:


if you stand by your posts, then why did you make corrections??..however you want to spin it, you were wrong today in discrediting a news organization during a terrible situation where people were getting information..im sorry Scott, you work for the NWS, look at it if a hurricane was approaching landfall and someone was one here stating that the NWS was exaggerating and overblowing their forecasts..wouldnt you take offense at that and the blogger posting it?..

I don't see the fault in expressing one's concern about incorrect information being spread by a local news organization whose goal is to save lives.

They told people to get in their cars and drive away from the tornado as fast as they could. Do you know how stupid that was?

That's all I've got to say about it.
Scott, NC, and Barefoot, you three really need to stop fighting. Nobody really cares about what you guys are fighting about anymore, and it was stupid to even fight about in the first place. Just give it a rest, please.
Quoting ncstorm:


if you stand by your posts, then why did you make corrections??..however you want to spin it, you were wrong today in discrediting a news organization during a terrible situation where people were getting information..im sorry Scott, you work for the NWS, look at it if a hurricane was approaching landfall and someone was one here stating that the NWS was exaggerating and overblowing their forecasts..wouldnt you take offense at that and the blogger posting it?..


I think (who am I in the grand scheme of things anyway, take it with a grain of salt)if someone was saying I was wrong and I was right.... I would let them be and continue what I was doing. if I was wrong I would admit it... Personally (again im just a kid here with basic knowledge of meteorology and its educational requirements) I would go with the man with the NWS because his classes were focused on meteorology as opposed to the news man whose classes split into mass communication and meteorology.

that's my opinion take it or leave it
Quoting ncstorm:


no one is arguing over a TV station..its the discrediting of a TV station during a heighten moment..I cant understand how the blog is condoning this behavior..


Just my 2 cents here, it wasn't discrediting of a news station, it was people drawing distinctions between what was actually fact and what was fiction. If the news station gets it wrong, then some criticism will come their way. Nothing to bicker over though.
Quoting ncstorm:


no one is arguing over a TV station..its the discrediting of a TV station during a heighten moment..I cant understand how the blog is condoning this behavior..
Hey I'm staying out of it.
telling people to get in their cars to outrun a tornado is iffy... but I don't know the circumstances. However, if you look at the trailer park at whatchamacallit (the name of which we will all know tomorrow), their chances of survival running away would be better than staying where they were.
Welcome to the world of greater dissemination of data. We have GR3 radar more widely available this year, as an example of the flow to "more data". With that extra data now in the hands of blogger mets...it brings good and bad. Adds more data to back-up whatever claim an armchair met might make but it does carry the risk that the extra data will be thrown down the line and contradict the official forecast. It's nothing new, the thought goes back decades with wider availability of "radar"...but the point is that it's a different time, and in this age of tweets, it brings an extra responsibility we'd hope those with the GR3 radar exercise. It's only going to get worse.
Scott, you and Barefoot have been here since the early years of WU. I agree with you in this little back and forth with Barefoot. I think the point is, this is a blog, not where one should be getting there life or death info from. It's a great additional resource, but the NOAA radio, or NOAA, or local METS is where people should be going for their local threat level. I think you both have valid points and are both right. Barefoot thinks the METS you criticized do a great job and provide real time lifesaving info almost every time they go out. And Barefoot would be right about that. Do they make the occasional error or misstatement, sure they do. So your right in that regard. Your both long time valued members.
2236. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't see the fault in expressing one's concern about incorrect information being spread by a local news organization whose goal is to save lives.

They told people to get in their cars and drive. Do you know how stupid that was?


I guess NOAA/SPC is stupid too..Good night folks..I got a headache..

From SPC/NOAA

In a mobile home:Get out! Even if your home is tied down, it is not as safe as an underground shelter or permanent, sturdy building. Go to one of those shelters, or to a nearby permanent structure, using your tornado evacuation plan. Most tornadoes can destroy even tied-down mobile homes; and it is best not to play the low odds that yours will make it. This mobile-home safety video from the State of Missouri may be useful in developing your plan.
"To see a wrong and not expose it, is to become a silent partner to its continuance"


I know what that phrase intended to be but it perfectly fits the situation
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
ScottLincoln I am not an expert but I did listen to Michael Spann before and these OKC on-air meteorologists/presenters just do not measure up to him. I was really surprised. OKC gets as much severe weather/tornadoes as anywhere and I expected their on-air broadcasts to be professional and accurate and they fell short of those standards.

Who is Michael Spann? I've heard of James Spann but not Michael... ;)

Quoting ncstorm:


no one is arguing over a TV station..its the discrediting of a TV station during a heighten moment..I cant understand how the blog is condoning this behavior..

KFOR was calling a debris ball SW of Norman when there wasn't one, over-rating some of the damage, and also told people to get in their cars and drive out of the way. Those aren't good things. I still had them on at times and saw copper footage, but some of the info they gave out was wrong.
Quoting ncstorm:
if you stand by your posts, then why did you make corrections??

Everyone makes grammatical mistakes, or finds that something they posted about a fact was actually mistaken. It happens. I consider it my responsbilility to make my posts accurate, especially when concerning facts. You will see the posts that were corrected have strike-throughs indicating the incorrect old information, and a note at the bottom mentioning why it was important to make the change.
Quoting ncstorm:

im sorry Scott, you work for the NWS, look at it if a hurricane was approaching landfall and someone was one here stating that the NWS was exaggerating and overblowing their forecasts..wouldnt you take offense at that and the blogger posting it?..

Depends on whether or not our forecasts were exaggerated or overblown. There is a difference between what people say and what is scientifically accurate.
If I was telling people that a tropical storm sitting in the middle of the gulf was going to turn north toward the populated New Orleans area and become a major hurricane at any time, while evidence suggested otherwise, I would hope to god that someone would correct me.
2240. aquak9
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Welcome to the world of greater dissemination of data. We have GR3 radar more widely available this year, as an example of the flow to "more data". With that extra data now in the hands of blogger mets...it brings good and bad. Adds more data to back-up whatever claim an armchair met might make but it does carry the risk that the extra data will be thrown down the line and contradict the official forecast. It's nothing new, the thought goes back decades with wider availability of "radar"...but the point is that it's a different time, and in this age of tweets, it brings an extra responsibility we'd hope with those with the GR3 radar exercise. It's only going to get worse.


Much worse.
In other news...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
818 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

KSC205-207-200145-
/O.CON.KICT.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-130520T0145Z/
WILSON KS-WOODSON KS-
818 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN WOODSON AND NORTHERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

AT 815 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. THIS SUPERCELL HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING FUNNEL CLOUDS AND ROTATING WALL CLOUDS.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BUFFALO AND ROSE.

LAT...LON 3770 9553 3749 9596 3770 9595 3786 9582 3787 9552 3782 9552 TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 233DEG 40KT 3772 9573

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN

$$

KLEINSASSER
Quoting ncstorm:


I guess NOAA/SPC is stupid too..Good night folks..I got a headache..

From SPC/NOAA

In a mobile home:Get out! Even if your home is tied down, it is not as safe as an underground shelter or permanent, sturdy building. Go to one of those shelters, or to a nearby permanent structure, using your tornado evacuation plan. Most tornadoes can destroy even tied-down mobile homes; and it is best not to play the low odds that yours will make it. This mobile-home safety video from the State of Missouri may be useful in developing your plan.

No. There's a difference from getting out of your house to find higher shelter. KFOR bluntly told the people in the path of the storm to drive as far away from the storm as they could, and as fast as they could.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Who is Michael Spann? I've heard of James Spann but but not Michael... ;)


KFOR was calling a debris ball SW of Norman when there wasn't one, over-rating some of the damage, and also told people to get in their cars and drive out of the way. Those aren't good things. I still had them on at times and saw copper footage, but some of the info they gave out was wrong.


Well done :) I didn't look him up, LOL
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey I'm staying out of it.
ya you be better off iam growing tried of the debate and its best to see what comes in on the surveys then we will know what was what
There is still a lot going on out there.
Hopefully, no more tornados!
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
You should be ashamed for defending a station that was making false statements at the time. I can understand why you feel attachment to your local mets but KFOR was flat out incorrect of there being debris balls at moments along with exaggerating events greatly at times. Knowing what a debris signature is on radar should be a simple task for a meteorologist. They were making these statements before the tornado formed at lake thunderbird.
Quoting Ameister12:
Why are some of you so upset? KFOR did indeed exaggerate several times today, but every news station is guilty of passing along false reports, and exaggerating information. Not a big deal, and definitely nothing to fight about.
I have seen Mike Morgan save lives. He is rarely wrong. He had an inexperienced chaser on the storm who could not get close- a lot of that due to the lakes and the roads that end going east from Norman. I heard what he said and he was flipping back and forth from one storm to the next. You all are so sure you heard him right. Maybe you didn't. Any case, he's covered a lot more supercell storms than any of you have, and if he felt strongly enough that something was happening he needed to warn folks about, more power to him.

Weather isn't all about radar and models. Some of it's about instinct. A good deal or it.
2247. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey I'm staying out of it.


really?..but yet you commented..
In fact, touching on tomorrow, there's nothing to suggest the environment won't be equally as destructive tomorrow, if not more so. A secondary vorticity maximum/jet streak is forecast to move through around 21z tomorrow afternoon, helping storms rotate. LCL heights are forecast to be lower than today as well. Upper-level winds are stronger than today, but low-level winds are weaker tomorrow.
Quoting ncstorm:


but yet you commented..
I commented on people arguing over a T.V station which wasn't directed at anyone in particular."People" could mean anybody and I left it at that.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. There's a difference from getting out of your house to find higher shelter. KFOR bluntly told the people in the path of the storm to drive as far away from the storm as they could, and as fast as they could.
If you can't get underground is what I heard.

Btw, it's common here for people who don't have underground shelter to drive away from storms when the cell is not on top of them. With longtrackers, it's not real hard to figure which way to drive.
As a silver lining, will all these storms put a significant dent in the drought?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In fact, touching on tomorrow, there's nothing to suggest the environment won't be equally as destructive tomorrow, if not more so. A secondary vorticity maximum/jet streak is forecast to move through around 21z tomorrow afternoon, helping storms rotate. LCL heights are forecast to be lower than today as well. Upper-level winds are stronger than today, but low-level winds are weaker tomorrow.

thanks for all the info today TAX.
Tomorrow's another day. night all!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In fact, touching on tomorrow, there's nothing to suggest the environment won't be equally as destructive tomorrow, if not more so. A secondary vorticity maximum/jet streak is forecast to move through around 21z tomorrow afternoon, helping storms rotate. LCL heights are forecast to be lower than today as well. Upper-level winds are stronger than today, but low-level winds are weaker tomorrow.
Well, that's for sure. I think I'll drive away before the watch goes up tomorrow.
2256. aquak9
It's hard to follow an act of God.

The Red Cross does it every day.
Neat extratropical system off the coast of Greenland

Still going with the rotation...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
833 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 832 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF HUMBOLDT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IOLA...HUMBOLDT...GAS...LA HARPE...MORAN...IOLA AIRPORT...BASSETT
AND MILDRED.
2260. bappit
Quoting ncstorm:


no one is arguing over a TV station..its the discrediting of a TV station during a heighten moment..I cant understand how the blog is condoning this behavior..

I tend to agree. The tornado was the issue of the moment. Criticism of the mediocre performance of the TV station could have been saved for later. It did not belong on their twitter feed as the storm was ongoing, for sure. It was off-topic.

Since it is now later, I thought the TV station gave some good information--it is better to overwarn than underwarn--but ... the scene where the two male personalities and the headset girl (just the impression I got) gathered inside the U shaped bank of monitors was laughable. I have no idea what they were doing except trying to look busy. Ahh, the camera lingered on them while the storm continued east. (What a directorial moment!) Then it seemed like the broadcast switched over to reporting damage, and they totally forgot about the storm they had been following. Maybe they went back to it, but at that point, at least, the viewers were left hanging. Was there still a tornado or not? Beats me. I killed the feed.
Quite possibly the safest large building in OKC. The federal prison. You know those walls are thick.

Quoting bappit:

I tend to agree. The tornado was the issue of the moment. Criticism of the mediocre performance of the TV station could have been saved for later. It did not belong on their twitter feed as the storm was ongoing, for sure. It was off-topic.

Since it is now later, I thought the TV station gave some good information--it is better to overwarn than underwarn--but ... the scene where the two male personalities and the headset girl (just the impression I got) gathered inside the U shaped bank of monitors was laughable. I have no idea what they were doing except trying to look busy. Ahh, the camera lingered on them while the storm continued east. (What a directorial moment!) Then it seemed like the broadcast switched over to reporting damage, and they totally forgot about the storm they had been following. Maybe they went back to it, but at that point, at least, the viewers were left hanging. Was there still a tornado or not? Beats me. I killed the feed.



What? Someone got a screenshot of this? I was away from electronics at the time of all this.
storm picture not todays storms

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN OKMULGEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
WAGONER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 838 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PRESTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
DAMAGING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...BALD
HILL...BOYNTON...STONEBLUFF...HASKELL...TAFT...COW ETA...PORTER...
TULLAHASSEE AND MUSKOGEE.
2266. Grothar
Quoting Grothar:


wave watch?
Yo Gro!
2269. Grothar
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Yo Gro!


Hi, Bri
Quoting BahaHurican:
Listening to the guy who got under the overpass via the Channel 9 feed, I hope pple realize it was the prayer not the overpass that saved him.....


I hope this is a joke? Prayers are no match for a tornado. In fact all they do is waste precious time when someone should be taking real actions that could save their life
2271. Grothar
Quoting weatherh98:


wave watch?


I can't think of anything better to do.
I've been out most of the day, so I'm just catching up on everything. First off, I'm saddened to see the damage from today's tornadoes and I hope no one died from them. Secondly, it looks like we will have just as big of a problem with tornadoes tomorrow. And finally, the National Weather Service has their tools and advanced technology for a reason. They also have storm chasers who give them accurate information. I believe the biggest lesson to learn is for people to listen to the NWS, not a local TV station. Local TV stations are great for getting live feeds of tornadoes (that's what I did during the Hattiesburg tornado this year), but I didn't listen to what they were saying. I read the NWS warnings and went by them. That's the purpose of the NWS and personally, I'd rather take the word of the professionals over some local TV station met who gets his forecasts from the NWS anyway.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Wow. Someone needs to quit being a troll and get a life.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
As a silver lining, will all these storms put a significant dent in the drought?
Probably up north, KS, NE. Most of Oklahoma is out of significant drought, and where the severe and exceptional drought continues in the panhandle and SW OK, not a lot of rain fell these past two days. Rain is always good and what's falling in OK right now has potential to keep us from a third droughtful summer.

BTW, I view your comment calling me a troll insulting and an attempt at intimidation.

ADD: 12:08 a.m. cdt May 20th.
FYI, "libelous" the single word you quoted, taken out of context from my comment 2190, and for which you called me a troll was in response to a blogger's referral to KFOR as insane. Blogger didn't say if he meant the lead met on TV today or the whole department. Said blogger's comments i quoted are at 1892. and 185x. His original statements are also preserved at comment 2190, but I have cut and pasted them here for your convenience. (edit, found the originals)

2190. Barefootontherocks 12:43 AM GMT on May 20, 2013

I read back and I have a couple more things to say.
(My bolds made in my responding comment.)
Quoting XXXXXXXXX:
Wow. KFOR is insane with the exaggerations. They are really distorting our knowledge of severe weather and radar meteorology.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


That is a mighty big low there, geeze.
Understatement...
Quoting MississippiWx:
I've been out most of the day, so I'm just catching up on everything. First off, I'm saddened to see the damage from today's tornadoes and I hope no one died from them. Secondly, it looks like we will have just as big of a problem with tornadoes tomorrow. And finally, the National Weather Service has their tools and advanced technology for a reason. They also have storm chasers who give them accurate information. I believe the biggest lesson to learn is for people to listen to the NWS, not a local TV station. Local TV stations are great for getting live feeds of tornadoes (that's what I did during the Hattiesburg tornado this year), but I didn't listen to what they were saying. I read the NWS warnings and went by them. That's the purpose of the NWS and personally, I'd rather take the word of the professionals over some local TV station met who gets his forecasts from the NWS anyway. That's just my opinion, but what do I know?

Absolutely nothing.

:-)


Quoting MississippiWx:
I've been out most of the day, so I'm just catching up on everything. First off, I'm saddened to see the damage from today's tornadoes and I hope no one died from them. Secondly, it looks like we will have just as big of a problem with tornadoes tomorrow. And finally, the National Weather Service has their tools and advanced technology for a reason. They also have storm chasers who give them accurate information. I believe the biggest lesson to learn is for people to listen to the NWS, not a local TV station. Local TV stations are great for getting live feeds of tornadoes (that's what I did during the Hattiesburg tornado this year), but I didn't listen to what they were saying. I read the NWS warnings and went by them. That's the purpose of the NWS and personally, I'd rather take the word of the professionals over some local TV station met who gets his forecasts from the NWS anyway. That's just my opinion, but what do I know?

Not much.
Quoting MississippiWx:
I've been out most of the day, so I'm just catching up on everything. First off, I'm saddened to see the damage from today's tornadoes and I hope no one died from them. Secondly, it looks like we will have just as big of a problem with tornadoes tomorrow. And finally, the National Weather Service has their tools and advanced technology for a reason. They also have storm chasers who give them accurate information. I believe the biggest lesson to learn is for people to listen to the NWS, not a local TV station. Local TV stations are great for getting live feeds of tornadoes (that's what I did during the Hattiesburg tornado this year), but I didn't listen to what they were saying. I read the NWS warnings and went by them. That's the purpose of the NWS and personally, I'd rather take the word of the professionals over some local TV station met who gets his forecasts from the NWS anyway. That's just my opinion, but what do I know?
Someone did die unfortunately..
The Shawnee tornado:
Barefootontherocks your slamming another blogger as libelous was insulting and intimidating. It was trollish behavior and you were wrong to do that.
Busy map.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Barefootontherocks your slamming another blogger as libelous was insulting and intimidating. It was trollish behavior and you were wrong to do that.
For the good of all I'd just drop it.
Quoting Grothar:


I can't think of anything better to do.


I can.. Blob watch

Quoting MississippiWx:
I've been out most of the day, so I'm just catching up on everything. First off, I'm saddened to see the damage from today's tornadoes and I hope no one died from them. Secondly, it looks like we will have just as big of a problem with tornadoes tomorrow. And finally, the National Weather Service has their tools and advanced technology for a reason. They also have storm chasers who give them accurate information. I believe the biggest lesson to learn is for people to listen to the NWS, not a local TV station. Local TV stations are great for getting live feeds of tornadoes (that's what I did during the Hattiesburg tornado this year), but I didn't listen to what they were saying. I read the NWS warnings and went by them. That's the purpose of the NWS and personally, I'd rather take the word of the professionals over some local TV station met who gets his forecasts from the NWS anyway. That's just my opinion, but what do I know?


You know NOTHING
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Absolutely nothing.

:-)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Not much.


Thank you.

Quoting washingtonian115:
Someone did die unfortunately..


That's sad. Hopefully that's the only fatality.

Edit:

Quoting weatherh98:


I can.. Blob watch



You know NOTHING


...and thank you, as well.
Quoting bappit:

I tend to agree. The tornado was the issue of the moment. Criticism of the mediocre performance of the TV station could have been saved for later. It did not belong on their twitter feed as the storm was ongoing, for sure. It was off-topic.

Since it is now later, I thought the TV station gave some good information--it is better to overwarn than underwarn--but ... the scene where the two male personalities and the headset girl (just the impression I got) gathered inside the U shaped bank of monitors was laughable. I have no idea what they were doing except trying to look busy. Ahh, the camera lingered on them while the storm continued east. (What a directorial moment!) Then it seemed like the broadcast switched over to reporting damage, and they totally forgot about the storm they had been following. Maybe they went back to it, but at that point, at least, the viewers were left hanging. Was there still a tornado or not? Beats me. I killed the feed.
I'll put in my two bits now that things have calmed down. I lived in OKC almost 30 years ago, and Gary Englund was the top tornado TV personality back then, and from what I hear from people I still know back there, he still is. He is retiring soon. This IMO is setting up a mad scramble to push a replacement top tornado TV personality. With the overkill you typically see in such media scrambles.

Media companies don't abhor a vacuum, they instead seek to gain from such.
ALLEN KS-
853 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALLEN COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

AT 848 PM CDT...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
THAT MAY NOT BE VISIBLE DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED NEAR GAS...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILDRED.
Quoting MississippiWx:
I've been out most of the day, so I'm just catching up on everything. First off, I'm saddened to see the damage from today's tornadoes and I hope no one died from them. Secondly, it looks like we will have just as big of a problem with tornadoes tomorrow. And finally, the National Weather Service has their tools and advanced technology for a reason. They also have storm chasers who give them accurate information. I believe the biggest lesson to learn is for people to listen to the NWS, not a local TV station. Local TV stations are great for getting live feeds of tornadoes (that's what I did during the Hattiesburg tornado this year), but I didn't listen to what they were saying. I read the NWS warnings and went by them. That's the purpose of the NWS and personally, I'd rather take the word of the professionals over some local TV station met who gets his forecasts from the NWS anyway. That's just my opinion, but what do I know?

Yeah you know nothin' :)

Looks like the tornado threat is winding down for the night, turning into a more damaging wind threat.
Sigh...Jokesters everywhere. I edited my post.

I KNOW EVERYTHING.

:-p
Preliminary track from the OK tornadoes

Link
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


I hope this is a joke? Prayers are no match for a tornado. In fact all they do is waste precious time when someone should be taking real actions that could save their life


Tell that to the many who have survived F4/F5 direct hits where there should have been no chance at survival. Often, it's the tornado that's no match for prayer. Of coarse, if it's prayer or getting to the tornado shelter; GET to the shelter! Then pray for others. :)
2292. ncstorm
I hope you guys are watching TWC about the person who got in their car and left the trailer park in Shawnee before the tornado struck..they are interviewing her right now..

The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management contacted emergency managers across the state and coordinated with the Oklahoma National Guard, Oklahoma Highway Patrol, Oklahoma State Department of Health, Oklahoma Department of Human Services, Oklahoma Office of Homeland Security, Oklahoma Department of Transportation, Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food and Forestry, National Weather Service, Federal Emergency Management Agency, American Red Cross and the Salvation Army.

DAMAGE REPORTS
Cushing Emergency Management reported debris due to the storm. Damage assessments are ongoing. Up to quarter-sized hail was reported.

Edmond Emergency Management reported seven homes have minor damage.
Lincoln County Emergency Management reported four injuries and damage to homes.

Norman Emergency Management reported approximately 30-40 homes damaged or destroyed.

Shawnee/ Pottawatomie County Emergency Management reported they are declaring a state of Emergency due to damage from the storm. Damage assessments are ongoing.

Damage assessments in the impacted areas are ongoing. Additional damage will continue to be reported to the State Emergency Operations Center throughout the evening and following days.

ROAD CLOSURES
Oklahoma Highway Patrol reports the following road closures:
SH 102 and Lake Road is closed due to power lines across the roadway.
I-40 and SH 177 is closed in all directions due to overturned semis and debris.

OKLAHOMA STATE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH
Oklahoma State Department of Health reports the Regional Emergency Medical Service System is deploying from Seminole to assist in Shawnee. Midwest City has dispatched ambulances to Shawnee as well. Additionally, OSDH has dispatched strike teams of ambulances from Kingfisher to Carney.

SHELTERS AND MASS CARE
American Red Cross reports they are providing water and bulk supplies in the impacted areas. Mass care crews are in contact with emergency management.

The Salvation Army reports all canteens are on Standby. The Shawnee and Central Oklahoma canteens are preparing to deploy to the Shawnee area and the Enid Canteen is preparing to deploy to Carney. Canteens are equipped to provide feeding, hydration and emotional spiritual care.








In summary...

a) Our local OKC TV met forecasts often differ from NWS. And from each other, so I try to watch them all this time of year.

b) All the TV stations in OKC preempt prime time TV for live coverage when a weather event occurs.

c) Their broadcasts save lives.

d) When in the path of a long-tracking violent cell, a commonplace action is to evacuate before the storm arrives when one does not have an underground shelter.

e) The only source for what really happens in a severe outbreak is the NWS survey.

Gov. Mary Fallin announced a few minutes ago a state of emergency has been declared in 16 Oklahoma counties.

Good night. Have a happy.
2295. docrod
I'll stay out of the way of this story and let those in the middle carry on - just a note - even the BBC is picking this one up.

- take care - Rod
Link
Quoting ncstorm:
I hope you guys are watching TWC about the person who got in their car and left the trailer park in Shawnee..they are interviewing her right now..
difference between leaving a trailer park and a home
Ya, ncstorm, I think with enough lead time driving away is often not a bad idea at all. If your in a major metropolitan area where traffic may be an issue, then no. But if your in a small or medium sized town and have 15-20 minutes of lead time then I think it'd be prudent to do. I'm not suggesting people should do it. I think people should head whatever the professionals say to do; but I personally don't think it's a bad idea at all.
Carney, OK, Tornado - 5-19-13 ...It's just amazing the power of the mother nature.

2299. beell
Quoting MississippiWx:
I've been out most of the day, so I'm just catching up on everything. First off, I'm saddened to see the damage from today's tornadoes and I hope no one died from them. Secondly, it looks like we will have just as big of a problem with tornadoes tomorrow. And finally, the National Weather Service has their tools and advanced technology for a reason. They also have storm chasers who give them accurate information. I believe the biggest lesson to learn is for people to listen to the NWS, not a local TV station. Local TV stations are great for getting live feeds of tornadoes (that's what I did during the Hattiesburg tornado this year), but I didn't listen to what they were saying. I read the NWS warnings and went by them. That's the purpose of the NWS and personally, I'd rather take the word of the professionals over some local TV station met who gets his forecasts from the NWS anyway.


Luckily, you and I and others here represent about 10% of the population that actually have enough knowledge to use the information provided by the NWS to make an effective decision for our own safety.

If you get a chance, drop by Brian Norcross' latest blog on NOAA's in-house assessment of their performance for Hurricane Sandy.

An interesting opinion/fact from his blog.

According to multiple surveys, about 90% of the people affected by Sandy named television as their "source of the most recent (storm) information". This number hasn't changed significantly in decades of post-storm studies.

So why, in the age of Twitter and Facebook and easy communications, do people still rely on TV? It's simple. No non-expert, which means almost nobody, is going to make a critical decision based on a piece of data: i.e. a text message or a graphic. Before you make the monumental decision to leave your home and possessions behind, you want somebody you trust to explain why you have to do it. You want to look them in the eye and know it's the truth...
no nado warnings for the 1st time tonight
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
859 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON`S...

.UPDATE...CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THAT THE PEAK IN SEVERE TSTORM
OCCURRENCES ACROSS THE NWS MIAMI AREA IS THE SECOND HALF OF MAY
AND JUNE. WE`VE HAD A FEW STRONG TSTORMS THE PAST COUPLE OF
AFTERNOON`S, AND PARAMETERS TOMORROW AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST
MORE INTENSE TSTORM POTENTIAL AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST AND
OVER THE AREA. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS LIKELY WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE TSTORMS. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT,
BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVERS, SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL. UPDATED
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. /GREGORIA
Im so lost. What did local OKC mets do wrong? Someone PM me please...Im lost
Quoting ncstorm:
I hope you guys are watching TWC about the person who got in their car and left the trailer park in Shawnee before the tornado struck..they are interviewing her right now..
If you're in trailer park, you can't stay in it because trailers are too weak. You must leave trailer park and find better shelter if you got 10-15+ minutes. If not, try to find an ditch and stay low. If you're in a home, no reason to try to outrun a tornado. Stay in a home to the lowest floor and the inter-most room.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
If you're in trailer park, you can't stay in it because trailers are too weak. You must leave trailer park and find better shelter if you got 10-15+ minutes. If not, try to find an ditch and stay low. If you're in a home, no reason to try to outrun a tornado. Stay in a home to the lowest floor and the inter-most room.



or if you got a lake near by get in the lake and swim and if you have too dive under
Small earthquake near Shawnee, OK tonight as well.

Link
Quoting weatherh98:
difference between leaving a trailer park and a home
It's about getting underground in a violent tornado. Or getting out of the way. Home, mobile home, both will be destroyed. Even basements were not safe in Joplin.

Wonder how many people left that trailer park way before the tornado got there. Wonder how many of them were watching KFOR. Wonder how many more might have died if they hadn't left. Per live TV Emergency Manager interview, two mobile home park dwellers have not been located. At this point, it is unknown whether they are MIA or whether they evacuated to a safe area.

I really can't talk/type about this any more. Hope some of you learned something about supercell tornadoes today. And about human nature. I did.
Quoting Tazmanian:



or if you got a lake near by get in the lake and swim and if you have too dive under
Bad idea. You can't stay underwater for more than 30 seconds and tornadoes are strong enough to suck up water.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
It's about getting underground in a violent tornado. Or getting out of the way. Home, mobile home, both will be destroyed. Even basements were not safe in Joplin.

Wonder how many people left that trailer park way before the tornado got there. Wonder how many of them were watching KFOR. Wonder how many more might have died if they hadn't left. Per live TV Emergency Manager interview, two mobile home park dwellers have not been located. At this point, it is unknown whether they are MIA or whether they evacuated to a safe area.

I really can't talk/type about this any more. Hope some of you learned something about supercell tornadoes today. And about human nature. I did.
Joplin was one in thousand tornadoes. Only EF-5 tornadoes make basements unsafe. And you're supposed to leave mobile park in a tornado, just not your strong home. KFOR said everybody to leave the town. And I'm done arguing about this too.


Wichita storm on TDWR earlier
Quoting Tazmanian:



or if you got a lake near by get in the lake and swim and if you have too dive under


Lol. Uh, no. If it comes to the point where you have no better choice than to dive in a lake, you might as well turn around and kiss your a** goodbye.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Bad idea. You can't stay underwater for more than 30 seconds and tornadoes are strong enough to suck up water.



not if you have a diveing suit on lol
2312. Thrawst
Quoting Chucktown:
Small earthquake near Shawnee, OK tonight as well.

Link


The earthquake could have been caused by the tornado ;) lol jk.
Quoting Tazmanian:



not if you have a diveing suit on lol


Taz, who would have a diving suit on in the middle of a tornadic thunderstorm?

Forget the tornado, diving into electrically-conductive material is asking for death any which way you splice it.
Quoting Tazmanian:



not if you have a diveing suit on lol


wouldn't that be convinient
Things look wet for PR by the ladder part of this week going into the Memorial day long weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1024 PM AST SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...THE 20/00Z SOUNDING CAME IN CLEARLY WETTER IN MANY
LAYERS AND SOMEWHAT WETTER IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE GFS 19/18Z RUN SHOWED DRIER AIR MOVING IN OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW AND EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN PORTION
OF PUERTO RICO AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...BUT ALSO EXPECT THIS TREND TO
REVERSE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE MODEL IS SHOWING THE
WETTEST DAYS TO BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE JUST A
LITTLE AHEAD OF THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL OF THE AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE
THAT JUST LEFT THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA TODAY. SO PERHAPS THE GFS
WILL DELAY THIS EVENT STILL A LITTLE MORE. OTHERWISE STILL LOOKING
FOR INCREASING ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK. ONE CAVEAT. THE GFS IS SHOWING
WEAK MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 725 MB THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND
HAVE TO THINK THAT THIS WILL AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FALLS.
250 MB DIVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE COUNTER BALANCED WITH 300-400 MB
CONVERGENCE KEEPING STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CONFINED TO
UPPER LAYERS...AND THIS IS IN SYNCH WITH HIGH LEVELS OF UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS TOO MAY IMPEDE HEAVY RAIN LATER...SO MODELS
ARE SENDING A VERY MIXED MESSAGE ABOUT WETTER WEATHER LATER THIS
WEEK. SOME CHANGES TO THE GRIDS...MAINLY POPS AND WEATHER TO MORE
CLOSELY REFLECT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0717
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 181...

VALID 200234Z - 200300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 181 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION-IN-TIME MAY BEST ADDRESS THE
REMAINING SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...RADAR/SURFACE COMPOSITE SHOWS A GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW
DISPLACED AHEAD OF THE SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF STORMS FROM N-CNTRL OK
INTO SERN KS. SURFACE WINDS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY HAVE RECENT VEERED
CONCURRENT WITH THE GUST FRONT PASSAGE --SEEMINGLY LIMITING TORNADO
POTENTIAL.
UNTIL STORMS CONVECTIVELY OVERTURN
MONTGOMERY/NEOSHO/LABETTE COUNTIES AND DECREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL...A
LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION-IN-TIME CAN BE UTILIZED AS AN OPTION IF A
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO PERSIST BEYOND 03Z.

..SMITH.. 05/20/2013
TWC Breaking ‏@TWCBreaking 2m

Preliminary rating for SW #Wichita #tornado earlier today was EF1, with path length 4.6 miles, up to 0.5 mi. wide. Lifted just S of airport.
2318. ncstorm
Via Basehunters..FB

Brett Wright-The Shawnee, OK tornado. Sounded like a waterfall, and had incredible motion. Note the tree near the top of the tornado. Praying for the all the people effected by these powerful tornadoes. A day I will never forget.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
Joplin was one in thousand tornadoes. Only EF-5 tornadoes make basements unsafe. And you're supposed to leave mobile park in a tornado, just not your strong home. KFOR said everybody to leave the town. And I'm done arguing about this too.

Maybe one in a thousand tornadoes, but not one in a thousand EF4s and EF5s. The May 22, 2011 Joplin tornado popped up at the outskirts of town. No time to leave by then. High fatality but could have been worse. High property damage. And survivors admitted they did not pay attention to warnings.

If you live in a mobile home park, best leave before the storm is 10-15 minutes away if there is no underground shelter. Even then, last year in Woodward, OK, a mobile home resident died when she could not get to the underground shelter 50 feet away in her yard because the wind was already so strong she could not make her way.

Unfortunately, these types of severe weather casualties will always happen when population is in harm's way.

Underground or leave.
...

"Tomorrow is another day." (Will my house get blown away?)
~Tiny Tim
Quoting ncstorm:
Via Basehunters..FB

Brett Wright-The Shawnee, OK tornado. Sounded like a waterfall, and had incredible motion. Note the tree near the top of the tornado. Praying for the all the people effected by these powerful tornadoes. A day I will never forget.


Wow, that's an awesome yet horrifying looking picture and tornado. Hopefully there won't be many fatalities.
2321. ncstorm
Via Basehunters FB

Enormously dangerous storm with huge wall cloud moving into Wichita.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Maybe one in a thousand tornadoes, but not one in a thousand EF4s and EF5s. The May 22, 2011 Joplin tornado popped up at the outskirts of town. No time to leave by then. High fatality but could have been worse. High property damage. And survivors admitted they did not pay attention to warnings.

If you live in a mobile home park, best leave before the storm is 10-15 minutes away if there is no underground shelter. Even then, last year in Woodward, OK, a mobile home resident died when she could not get to the underground shelter 50 feet away in her yard because the wind was already so strong she could not make her way.

Unfortunately, these types of severe weather casualties will always happen when population is in harm's way.

Underground or leave.
...

"Tomorrow is another day."
~Tiny Tim
Agree with underground or leave. And Joplin tornado happened so suddenly. They had short warning.
This is on Brad Pan's Google + page. Nice video.

Link
Quoting Thrawst:


The earthquake could have been caused by the tornado ;) lol jk.
maybe someone forgot to turn off the fracking machine
2325. JRRP
second TW
Quoting Tribucanes:


Tell that to the many who have survived F4/F5 direct hits where there should have been no chance at survival. Often, it's the tornado that's no match for prayer. Of coarse, if it's prayer or getting to the tornado shelter; GET to the shelter! Then pray for others. :)


Do you know whether or not the people who survived those F4/F5's were praying? Do you know whether or not those who perished were praying?
Personally, I don't see any correlation between prayer and survival. Some people die in storms, some people live through them- people who pray and people who don't pray fall into each category.

To each his own. I don't mean to bash praying because regardless of religious beliefs, intentions of prayer are good. I just don't suggest prayer as a first line of defense and agree with your last statement that getting to shelter is the most important thing one can do to help increase their chances of survival.
Quoting JRRP:
second TW


And NHC may introduce the third one that is convection emerging West Africa sometime on Monday. Is a sign that the parade of waves is beggining.
2328. Grothar
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And NHC may introduce the third one that is convection emerging West Africa sometime on Monday. Is a sign that the parade of waves is beggining.


You mean this one?

The best preparations for any tornado strike, aside from a safe room, is to supply all family members with a full face motorcycle helmet that fits properly. Have them readily available when weather turns ugly.

The body can take substantial blunt trama in many cases, one's head cannot.
Good night blog, today was hectic in both the real world and here on the blog, tomorrow could very well be worse. I leave you with this, nearly 400 reports:

We are taking coverage..
Quoting Tazmanian:



not if you have a diveing suit on lol
Or I suppose if you own a small single engine plane you can get in one of those and be out of the path of a tornado in no time.
Wild wind sounds in this one. Pretty close lightning at the end..
Quoting Skyepony:
We are taking coverage..
who is the pretty woman in this video!!
Quoting Grothar:


You mean this one?



Yep. Someone posted earlier the precipitation loop and it had plenty.
People across Green Country have contacted FOX23 and reported finding items from Shawnee and other storm damaged areas in their yards.

Many families have found photos and personal documents blown into their yards after tornadoes struck in the Oklahoma City area.

A Kellyville teen told FOX23 he saw the picture in the yard and picked it up. The picture is of a wedding and appears to be from the early 80s. The teen said "If it came from far away and someone got hurt they may want to see it again."

A Facebook group has been created to help storm victims be reunited with their personal items.


2340. bappit
Quoting Skyepony:
People across Green Country have contacted FOX23 and reported finding items from Shawnee and other storm damaged areas in their yards.

Wikipedia: "Green Country, sometimes referred to as Northeast Oklahoma, is the northeastern portion of the U.S. state of Oklahoma ..."
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Please dont let Joplin get hit again

Thanks for those radar posts Keeper. I sure hope no tornadoes spin up as that line approaches Joplin. That small area below the main line is worrisome too, sometimes a tornado can spin up out of those.
Looks so ominous Keeper, those pictures of storms coming at Joplin, especially when you make it with Joplin as the only city you see. Tomorrow they will be really under the gun. Lot of nerves to be tested there tomorrow. Can you say, most vigilant community in regards to paying attention to warnings for severe weather in the country. OKC coming in a close second.
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


I hope this is a joke? Prayers are no match for a tornado. In fact all they do is waste precious time when someone should be taking real actions that could save their life
DEFINITELY did not get the point...

The guy got up under an OVERPASS - that was his "real action". The SAME OVERPASS that the tornado hit.... go figure. The prayer was at least as effective as his "real action"... imo.

I don't know if you pray. But for those of us who do, it's not something you do INSTEAD of acting. You do it before, during and after...

Quoting Hurricane1216:


Preliminary tornado tracks courtesy of NWS Norman.

TYVM... was looking for something like this.
Quoting ncstorm:
I hope you guys are watching TWC about the person who got in their car and left the trailer park in Shawnee before the tornado struck..they are interviewing her right now..
Should have been already out of there. Better still, there should be some communal shelter area [s] in trailer parks. There was enough info out there for these people to take cover.

I'm curious how many residents were actually in those homes at the time the tornado hit...
2355. Gearsts
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Barefootontherocks your slamming another blogger as libelous was insulting and intimidating. It was trollish behavior and you were wrong to do that.
Please see my add at comment 2273.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 1211 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF GOLDEN CITY...AND MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ARCOLA...BONA...DADEVILLE...GOLDEN CITY...GREENFIELD...LOCKWOOD...
NEOLA...SOUTH GREENFIELD AND SYLVANIA.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES STOCKTON LAKE.


Quoting BahaHurican:
TYVM... was looking for something like this.
There will be detailed event report made when the field surveys and radar review, photos, etc are done. It may get combined into a three day severe outbreak report, May 18-20, 2013. sometimes they do that with multiple day events. The final usuallt takes a while.

I'm here waitin' for SPC 0100 cdt Day 1 convective outlook to appear. First look at what they think could happen tomorrow.
good morning all. I have to believe the NWS"s new we are not kidding, stark , this will kill you warnings have had to save some lives today. I hope they keep this in place. OUTSTANDING JOB NWS
dang, long night tonight.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1242 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 115 AM CDT

* AT 1239 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED DADEVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALDRICH...BOLIVAR...BRIGHTON...EUDORA...GOODSON... HALF WAY...
MORRISVILLE AND PLEASANT HOPE.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES STOCKTON LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
Quoting beell:


Luckily, you and I and others here represent about 10% of the population that actually have enough knowledge to use the information provided by the NWS to make an effective decision for our own safety.

If you get a chance, drop by Brian Norcross' latest blog on NOAA's in-house assessment of their performance for Hurricane Sandy.

An interesting opinion/fact from his blog.

According to multiple surveys, about 90% of the people affected by Sandy named television as their "source of the most recent (storm) information". This number hasn't changed significantly in decades of post-storm studies.

So why, in the age of Twitter and Facebook and easy communications, do people still rely on TV? It's simple. No non-expert, which means almost nobody, is going to make a critical decision based on a piece of data: i.e. a text message or a graphic. Before you make the monumental decision to leave your home and possessions behind, you want somebody you trust to explain why you have to do it. You want to look them in the eye and know it's the truth...


I agree. People tend to trust their local tv weatherman, and in some cases they know their stuff, in others, not.

For example, here in Nola, Nash Roberts was the weather god, and he was very good. Had a great track record as far as predicting the tracks & intensity of hurricanes. Of course, he was actually a meteorologist, not a broadcast met, and a very good one, at that.

The point is, is that in an emergency situation, most ppl will still rely on local news, rather than going to an online source, such as NWS, NHC, or wunderground. It is what it is...
tomorrow looks much the same as today, but shifted slightly south and east.





Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Well that's ugly, and not something they want to see.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
2369. EricSFL
Thoughts and prayers go out to all in the path of these storms, especially those that do not have the means to seek shelter.
Hello... is it safe to pop my head out, I won't get it sucked away by the many tornadoes you've had over there today/tonight?

Thoughts and prayers with those affected by the severe weather. I read earlier this morning 1 person was killed. Please tell me that's all.
Quoting stormchaser19:
Carney, OK, Tornado - 5-19-13 ...It's just amazing the power of the mother nature.

This guy is closer than Jim Cantore got today.

In the future, it won't be just "50 yards," but Cantore will be reporting to us from inside the vortex itself, with his mico phone in hand, describing the debris ball.

2373. Dakster
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
This guy is closer than Jim Cantore got today.

In the future, it won't be just "50 yards," but Cantore will be reporting to us from inside the vortex itself, with his mico phone in hand, describing the debris ball.


Just what we need. Jim inside a Tornado describing his debris balls to us.
and looks like caribbean is on the rise again



2375. Dakster
I guess it is heating up... Still only a 1 in a 100 chance of something forming.

But the season starts soon enough.
Quoting Stormchaser121:

yeah this seem right
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah this seem right

What are your thoughts on this one?
Quoting Stormchaser121:

What are your thoughts on this one?

what is the one that you are refering to
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

what is the one that you are refering to

The forecast posted above
Quoting Stormchaser121:

The forecast posted above

well I agree with the tracks and some of the numbers and in terms of high risk areas its all good though I believe the whole N Gulf coast should be in red other that that its spot on and also the Caribbean also has countries with people they should also be highlighted in the risk areas as well
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well I agree with the tracks and some of the numbers and in terms of high risk areas its all good though I believe the whole N Gulf coast should be in red other that that its spot on and also the Caribbean also has countries with people they should also be highlighted in the risk areas as well

I agree with that as well. Im not agreeing with the forecasts that are saying the western gulf has low risk because of the patterns setting up with the Bermuda high. Anything can happen this season EVERYONE needs to have a plan and keep watch.
Quoting Astrometeor:


Just wait till the sun heats this up for the day, then the fireworks start!

You all be careful out there!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
06Z GFS is now running now at 30H
2386. Dakster
Does the GFS still want to slam Florida?
Quoting Dakster:
Does the GFS still want to slam Florida?
here we go again this will be the 9th year in a row where they say florida gets killed and florida wont get anything all season all hook fish storms and storms that fall apart
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 200947
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-201800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTH TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO CENTRAL TEXAS

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THE AREA OF
GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM FAR NORTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG FAVORABLE WINDS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..PETERS.. 05/20/2013

$$
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
here we go again this will be the 9th year in a row where they say florida gets killed and florida wont get anything all season all hook fish storms and storms that fall apart

You forget that Florida got Beryl and Debbie last year? Massive flooding, storm surge. It's doesn't have to be a strong system to do damage and kill.


@StormCoker Georgia Storm Chaser
Picture of complete devastation in Shawnee, Oklahoma.. Haven't seen that bad in a long while
2391. MahFL
Quoting Tazmanian:



or if you got a lake near by get in the lake and swim and if you have too dive under


Swimming in a lake during a tornado ? I don't think thats a good idea.
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

It will be a variable week weatherwise in PR and adjacent islands but it becomes very wet by the ladder part of the week going to the long Memorial day weekend.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHENS NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL MOVE OCCASIONALLY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...DEPICTED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WESTWARD MAINLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WILL MAINTAIN AN
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO TIGHTENS THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT...INCREASING THE WINDS FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS
HAPPENS...SOME LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL CROSS THE REGION
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PWAT VALUES WILL PREVAIL CLOSE TO
1.60 INCHES TODAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE STEADILY TO AROUND
2.00 INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION APPROACHES TO THE REGION
FROM THE EAST. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE...EMERGING TO THE AFRICAN COASTS
TODAY...IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN A WET
PERIOD STARTING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 20/16Z SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND MAY CAUSE TEMPO MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ BTW
20/16Z AND 20/22Z. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 76 / 20 20 40 30
STT 87 77 87 78 / 20 30 30 30
M6.8 - West Chile Rise
2013-05-20 09:49:06 UTC

Location

44.700°S 81.100°W

depth=10.0km (6.2mi)

Nearby Cities

626km (389mi) WSW of Puerto Quellon, Chile
631km (392mi) WSW of Chonchi, Chile
641km (398mi) WSW of Castro, Chile
665km (413mi) W of Puerto Aisen, Chile
1538km (956mi) SSW of Santiago, Chile
TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0957Z 20 MAY 2013

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0949Z 20 MAY 2013
COORDINATES - 44.7 SOUTH 81.1 WEST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - WEST CHILE RISE
MAGNITUDE - 6.8

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.


HOWEVER - EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL
TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES
IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.
2395. MahFL
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Agree with underground or leave. And Joplin tornado happened so suddenly. They had short warning.


They had plenty of warning. A lot of dead people were in resturants and either did not hear the sirens, or ignored them. When they finally did realise it was a tornado they did not have many good places to shelter. Also some houses had been recently built with no basement, to save costs, a city ordinace had been changed to allow that, in Tornado Alley of all places.
Quoting MahFL:


They had plenty of warning. A lot of dead people were in resturants and either did not hear the sirens, or ignored them. When they finally did realise it was a tornado they did not have many good places to shelter. Also some houses had been recently built with no basement, to save costs, a city ordinace had been changed to allow that, in Tornado Alley of all places.


Sorry but that is just stupid to allow. Have those cities built community tornado shelters? If not, why not. Where are these people meant to go when there is a tornado coming in their direction? Do they just kiss each other goodbye and pray they live?
2397. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks! Coffee is late this morning but HOT....

This lightning was captured by Martyn Brock at The Port of Milford Haven UK recently.

Yes the lightning does strike the ship.
2399. pottery
The first Tropical Wave of the season is passing through here right now.
Expecting the showers to persist for today only, and the rainfall overnight was just a trace in the gauge.
2400. pottery
Good Morning, all. Good evening, Aussie.
Please excuse my lack of Greeting. It's a little early for Pleasantries !

:):))
NBC News Weather‏@NBCNewsWeather1 h
1 killed, 21 hurt as tornadoes ravage Plains states
Link
Miami NWS Disco Excerpt

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COASTAL AREAS UNDER WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW. HEADING INTO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS
1.75 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK OVERALL STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
Viewing: 2401 - 2403

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 - Blog Index
2404. WxLogic
Good Morning... 11 days left.

GFS might starting to gain some support. ECMWF Ensemble starting to hint towards a possible low pressure development in the W/NW Carib.

00Z ECMWF Ensemble 240HR:



00Z GFS 240HR:


Quoting pottery:
Good Morning, all. Good evening, Aussie.
Please excuse my lack of Greeting. It's a little early for Pleasantries !

:):))

Morning Mate, How's that road of your's coming along?
SPC Update

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 200947
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-201800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0447 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTH TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TO CENTRAL TEXAS

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE OZARKS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THE AREA OF
GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM FAR NORTH TEXAS INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG FAVORABLE WINDS
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..PETERS.. 05/20/2013

Media briefing.
2407. Torito
Quoting bigwes6844:
Viewing: 2401 - 2403

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 - Blog Index


LOL i think this is the most comments on a single blog here i have seen.
2408. Torito
Evening, Aussie :P

Morning, everyone else!
2409. Torito
Quoting Luisport:
NBC News Weather‏@NBCNewsWeather1 h
1 killed, 21 hurt as tornadoes ravage Plains states
Link


I wish those families help through their tough moments in life.
2410. Torito
Still forcasting tropical development in the same spot for 2 weeks now...


Quoting Torito:


LOL i think this is the most comments on a single blog here i have seen.

Wait till there is a land-falling hurricane. Can see 5,000-10,000.
Good morning folks. Got a gully washer yesterday afternoon at my house. 1.63 in of rain and pea size hail in 1 hour! Lot of thunder but not much lightening thank goodness!
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Good morning folks. Got a gully washer yesterday afternoon at my house. 1.63 in of rain and pea size hail in 1 hour! Lot of thunder but not much lightening thank goodness!

Good Morning to you.
Sounds like a lot of cloud to cloud lightning. Can't have thunder without lightning.
Who's ready to do it again today?

Updraft helicity at 0z:

2416. barbamz
Morning folks from another holiday in Germany. Amazing and as well scaring footages yesterday night about those unfortunately damaging and deadly tornados.
I cannot watch TWC from Germany. But the crazy adrenaline experience of your Jim Cantore is on youtube now.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Morning to you.
Sounds like a lot of cloud to cloud lightning. Can't have thunder without lightning.


That's true, but we didn't see alot around us. I'm sure other folks were not so lucky. The median of our interstate 75 in Collier county ended up with a brush fire.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
535 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-202145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
535 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

CARLISLE





Quoting AussieStorm:

Wait till there is a land-falling hurricane. Can see 5,000-10,000.
On one of a 2x daily blog post.

Even a "regular" day with just some hurricane activity somewhere in the basin can yield more than 2500 comments, especially in August or September..

Morning all, BTW [forgot].

I need coffee... lol
2421. VR46L
Good Morning folks!!

The same area is under the gun today again

Click on image for Outlook details

This what 5" of rain left behind early yesterday morning from Daytona Beach down to New Smyrna Beach.



OK City area was "fortunate" in that the two touchdowns happened in relatively rural areas on the outskirts of that metropolitan area. I still find it amazing that the tornado that hit the Stillman estates trailer park and the I40 interchange hit pretty much the only major human development and only major interchange in that immediate area, though.

Orlando
Quoting FtMyersgal:


That's true, but we didn't see alot around us. I'm sure other folks were not so lucky. The median of our interstate 75 in Collier county ended up with a brush fire.


Your lucky as the lightning was ferocious here in Orlando not only yesterday afternoon but very early Sunday morning. We had some of the most intense lightning I've ever seen. It was literally striking every second for about 30 minutes on the NW side of Orlando.
Quoting BahaHurican:
On one of a 2x daily blog post.

Even a "regular" day with just some hurricane activity somewhere in the basin can yield more than 2500 comments, especially in August or September..



Even more if there is a major cane threatening the islands or the U.S coast.
2427. ncstorm
Good Morning all..

Henry Margusity Fan Club
Wow! In a 30 day stretch we will see record snowstorms, record heat, tornadoes outbreaks and a tropical threat. Wild just wild!

Henry Margusity Fan Club
Once we are past this severe weather pattern, late next week it's time for the first tropical threat!

Henry Margusity Fan Club
Simulated radars suggest the corridor of nasty storms will be from central Missouri to eastern Oklahoma today.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Who's ready to do it again today?

Updraft helicity at 0z:


I'm ready!
*Looks at storms affecting his own area*
2429. VR46L
Looks like it could be nasty today

2430. ncstorm
Dr. Forbes torcon index

Monday, May 20

Severe thunderstorm outbreak continues in southwest, central, northeast OK, southeast KS, southwest, central and northeast MO, east SD, central and south MN, IA, WI, MI, north and west-central IL, northwest AR.

TOR:CON -

IA east - 3 to 4
IA central - 2 to 3
IA west - 2
IL northwest, west-central - 3
IL northeast - 2
KS southeast - 4
MI - 3
MN central, south - 2
MO southwest - 5
MO central, northeast - 3 to 4
OK central, northeast - 6
OK southwest - 5
SD east - 2
WI south - 3 to 4
WI north - 2
Tuesday, May 21

Scattered severe thunderstorms in the east half of TX, northwest LA, north MS, west TN, AR, OH, PA, west and south-central NY, lower peninsula MI, IN, south IL, south and east-central MO, west KY, southeast OK.

TOR:CON -

AR - 3

IL south - 2 to 3
IN - 3
KY west - 3
LA northwest - 2
MI east - 3
MI west - 2
MO south, east-central - 2 to 3
MS north - 2
NY west, south-central - 2
OH - 3
OK southeast - 3
PA - 2
TX east half - 3

other areas - less than 2
Wednesday, May 22

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms in NY, PA, OH, north WV.

TOR:CON -

NY west - 3
NY remainder 2 or less
OH - 3
PA east - less than 2
PA west - 3
WV north - 2 to 3
2431. MahFL
BBC News is reporting the climate won't warm up as much as was forcast, due to the decline in warming since 1998, so there !
Here is the latest update of the worldwide anomalies made on May 20. Here are some highlights.

1-MDR continues above average.

2-The Tripole continues well established.

3-Gulf of Guinea has cooled a lot.

4-Equatorial Pacific continues to trend cooler.

5-PDO remains the same as last week (In Negative to Neutral)

6-Indian Ocean has cooled.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the latest update of the worldwide anomalies made on May 20. Here are some highlights.

1-MDR continues above average.

2-The Tripole continues well established.

3-Gulf of Guinea has cooled a lot.

4-Equatorial Pacific continues to trend cooler.

5-PDO remains the same as last week (In Negative to Neutral)

6-Indian Ocean has cooled.



That does not bode well for the tropical Atlantic.
2435. VR46L
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is the latest update of May 20 of the worldwide anomalies and here are some highlights.

1-MDR continues above average.

2-The Tripole continues well established.

3-Gulf of Guinea has cooled a lot.

4-Equatorial Pacific continues to trend cooler.

5-PDO remains the same as last week (In Negative to Neutral)

6-Indian Ocean has cooled.



Yeah the Gulf of Guinea, and the Indian Ocean sure look cool .........
I go by actual temps not anomalies...



Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm ready!
*Looks at storms affecting his own area*
I'm about 12 miles west of you and all I have to say is "I hope your local weather is extremely boring!"
Quoting MahFL:
BBC News is reporting the climate won't warm up as much as was forcast, due to the decline in warming since 1998, so there !


Only in the short term.

"Scientists say the recent downturn in the rate of global warming will lead to lower temperature rises in the short-term.

Since 1998, there has been an unexplained "standstill" in the heating of the Earth's atmosphere.

Writing in Nature Geoscience, the researchers say this will reduce predicted warming in the coming decades.

But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly."


What everyone seems to have a blind spot about is that global temperature fluctuates naturally. There was a 30 year cooling period between the 40s and the 70s, despite increasing CO2.

So, if temperatures have 'flatlined' recently, that just means that what would have been a natural downturn in global temperature has been counteracted by AGW.
I'm in the slight risk area

I know it is 384HR out but wow 00Z GFS
2440. VR46L
Quoting FunnelVortex:
I'm in the slight risk area



Stay safe, all under threat today !!
Quoting VR46L:


Stay safe, all under threat today !!


I love severe storms anyway. But I will stay safe.
Quoting FLwolverine:
I'm about 12 miles west of you and all I have to say is "I hope your local weather is extremely boring!"

I hope it isn't boring after about 4pm. Slight risk today and tomorrow for me.
Hazardous Outlook for my area

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
I'm in the slight risk area



My hubby's family too FV. Keep an eye out today and tomorrow too!
Find antpile...

Get stick...

And stir!


Climate Change Study Shows Pace Is Slowing, But Extreme Action Still Vital
Reuters | Posted: 05/19/2013 6:01 pm EDT



OSLO, May 19 (Reuters) - Extreme global warming is less likely in coming decades after a slowdown in the pace of temperature rises so far this century, an international team of scientists said on Sunday.

Warming is still on track, however, to breach a goal set by governments around the world of limiting the increase in temperatures to below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, unless tough action is taken to limit rising greenhouse gas emissions.

"The most extreme rates of warming simulated by the current generation of climate models over 50- to 100-year timescales are looking less likely," the University of Oxford wrote about the findings in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The rate of global warming has slowed after strong rises in the 1980s and 1990s, even though all the 10 warmest years since reliable records began in the 1850s have been since 1998.

The slowdown has been a puzzle because emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases have continued to rise, led by strong industrial growth in China.

Examining recent temperatures, the experts said that a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere above pre-industrial times - possible by mid-century on current trends - would push up temperatures by between 0.9 and 2.0 degrees Celsius (1.6 and 3.6F).

That is below estimates made by the U.N. panel of climate scientists in 2007, of a rise of between 1 and 3 degrees Celsius (1.8-5.4F) as the immediate response to a doubling of carbon concentrations, known as the transient climate response.


OCEANS

The U.N. panel also estimated that a doubling of carbon dioxide, after accounting for melting of ice and absorption by the oceans that it would cause over hundreds of years, would eventually lead to a temperature rise of between 2 and 4.5 C (3.6-8.1F).

Findings in the new study, by experts in Britain, the United States, Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Switzerland and Norway, broadly matched that range for the long-term response.

But for government policy makers "the transient response over the next 50-100 years is what matters," lead author Alexander Otto of Oxford University said in a statement.

The oceans appear to be taking up more heat in recent years, masking a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that passed 400 parts per million this month for the first time in human history, up 40 percent from pre-industrial levels.

Professor Reto Knutti of ETH Zurich, one of the authors, said that the lower numbers for coming decades were welcome.

But "we are still looking at warming well over the two degree goal that countries have agreed upon if current emission trends continue," he said.

Temperatures have already risen by about 0.8 Celsius (1.4F) since the Industrial Revolution and two degrees C is widely viewed as a threshold to dangerous changes such as more floods, heatwaves and rising sea levels.

"The oceans are sequestering heat more rapidly than expected over the last decade," said Professor Steven Sherwood of the University of New South Wales in Australia, who was not involved in the study.

"By assuming that this behaviour will continue, (the scientists) calculate that the climate will warm about 20 percent more slowly than previously expected, although over the long term it may be just as bad, since eventually the ocean will stop taking up heat."

He said findings "need to be taken with a large grain of salt" because of uncertainties about the oceans. (Editing by Robin Pomeroy)
its a give and a take situation over here near the beaches e cen fl. in order so there little runoff into the mosquito lagoon they built retention ponds and blocked off as much water runoff as possible. there are big positives of this and well as negatives like flooded streets.
I also have a hail threat:



Good thing I brought in my plants. Don't want them to get damaged by hail.
Nice wave in Eastern Atlantic that may provide energy to whatever develops in Western Caribbean or EPAC down the road.

My heart goes out to those affected by the outbreak.

What are the statistics for mobile homes in Tornado alley? That just seems like an exceptionally BAD idea.

I'll look into the Daytona area flooding. It seems odd to run a state storm prep exercises when there is flooding, but I suppose it is always something.
Quoting yonzabam:


Only in the short term.

"Scientists say the recent downturn in the rate of global warming will lead to lower temperature rises in the short-term.

Since 1998, there has been an unexplained "standstill" in the heating of the Earth's atmosphere.

Writing in Nature Geoscience, the researchers say this will reduce predicted warming in the coming decades.

But long-term, the expected temperature rises will not alter significantly."


What everyone seems to have a blind spot about is that global temperature fluctuates naturally. There was a 30 year cooling period between the 40s and the 70s, despite increasing CO2.

So, if temperatures have 'flatlined' recently, that just means that what would have been a natural downturn in global temperature has been counteracted by AGW.


Temperatures increase- AGW

Temperatures decrease- just part of a cycle?

I remember why I don't come here as much. Too much AGW BS, and WU being taken over by TWC has only made it worse.



CO2 is not the main driver of temperatures.
Peace to those folks killed and or impacted by the tornadoes this past weekend. Let's hope for the best again in the coming days.
Quoting islander101010:
its a give and a take situation over here near the beaches e cen fl. in order so there little runoff into the mosquito lagoon they built retention ponds and blocked off as much water runoff as possible. there are big positives of this and well as negatives like flooded streets.


We don't have flooding over here a little north of you. I haven't been on South Atlantic but I think the stormwater project they did there a year or so ago fixed their problem. A friend told me some streets in Sugar Mill were flooded yesterday morning.

Here's some info on Volusia flooding:
Volusia County sees significant amount of rainfall

Due to the interaction of a stalled cold front and an upper-level low-pressure system, abundant moisture has prevailed over Volusia County since Sunday.

Over the past four days, cumulative rainfall amounts exceeding 16 inches have been reported in Volusia County. So far, the greatest amount of rain has fallen in central and northern Volusia County.

Yesterday, high tides and strong east-northeast winds backed up the outflow along the intracoastal waterway, which amplified the flooding in some communities along the river. Some of the cities receiving the greatest impact include Ormond Beach, Daytona Beach and Holly Hill.

RAINFALL TOTALS

Rainfall totals through 7 a.m. today are:
New Smyrna Beach - 16.35 inches
Daytona Beach Airport - 16.21 inches
Edgewater - 15.82 inches
Ormond Beach - 14.9 inches
DeLeon Springs - 13.92 inches
Ponce Inlet - 13.05 inches
DeLand - 12.06 inches
FROM Link Volusia County Emergency Services
I don't know how to insert a youtube video, so I'm going to link it. If someone can embed it for me that would be great. I rarely post but been lurking ever since the Katrina days. Here's my footage of a tornado hitting buildings and then beginning to cross I-35, as it's coming towards me.

Link
I had something helpful to add but completely forgot so this is what you're reading instead.
2455. Torito
Severe thunderstorm warning in effect.

Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Temperatures increase- AGW

Temperatures decrease- just part of a cycle?

I remember why I don't come here as much. Too much AGW BS, and WU being taken over by TWC has only made it worse.



CO2 is not the main driver of temperatures.


Maybe you could come here even less. Then we wouldn't have to see your trashy fictitious denier graphs.

Global decadal temperature anomaly, with respect to the average for 1951-80. Source NASA GISS.

1981-90 +0.20C
1991-00 +0.32C
2001-10 +0.55C
LOL...Okay, let's see:



Mean temperatures have clearly flatlined, while:



CO2 continues to increase.

Expectacular Fireball 05/14/13 10:38pm Miami, FL Link
Quoting yonzabam:


Maybe you could come here even less. Then we wouldn't have to see your trashy fictitious denier graphs.

Global decadal temperature anomaly, with respect to the average for 1951-80. Source NASA GISS.

1981-90 +0.20C
1991-00 +0.32C
2001-10 +0.55C


LOL! Isn't it too early in the morning for this? Do you drink coffee?
Quoting muddertracker:


LOL! Isn't it too early in the morning for this? Do you drink coffee?


Tea. Trying to wean myself off, though. Think I might have caffeine sensitivity.

(Btw, it's 2 pm here in Scotland).
I don't like to pick on the NWS, who do a sterling job on the whole, but I do worry if they hurt their credibility a bit yesterday with that Wichita tornado emergency. The whole point of the new experiment with "impact-based wording" was to address the "boy who cried wolf" problem of tornado warnings—the fact that people had so many false alarms with regular tornado warnings that they started ignoring them. The idea was that if they reserved really strong wording for really dangerous tornadoes, people would pay attention when it mattered most. And they pulled out their very strongest wording yesterday for a tornado that turned out to be an EF-1, on the ground for just a few minutes.

A few more missed calls like that, and people will start shrugging off even "catastrophic" warnings.
Quoting yonzabam:


Tea. Trying to wean myself off, though. Think I might have caffeine sensitivity.

(Btw, it's 2 pm here in Scotland).


halo, then :)
Quoting FlyingScotsman:
I don't like to pick on the NWS, who do a sterling job on the whole, but I do worry if they hurt their credibility a bit yesterday with that Wichita tornado emergency. The whole point of the new experiment with "impact-based wording" was to address the "boy who cried wolf" problem of tornado warnings—the fact that people had so many false alarms with regular tornado warnings that they started ignoring them. The idea was that if they reserved really strong wording for really dangerous tornadoes, people would pay attention when it mattered most. And they pulled out their very strongest wording yesterday for a tornado that turned out to be an EF-1, on the ground for just a few minutes.

A few more missed calls like that, and people will start shrugging off even "catastrophic" warnings.



Everything that they were getting from storm reporters was that a violent, large tornado was on the ground. In addition to that radar signature was very strong. The NWS did everything right every once in a while though they get it wrong.
2464. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I had something helpful to add but completely forgot so this is what you're reading instead.


Annoying, isn't it???
2465. barbamz
Quoting Papagolash:
I don't know how to insert a youtube video, so I'm going to link it. If someone can embed it for me that would be great. I rarely post but been lurking ever since the Katrina days. Here's my footage of a tornado hitting buildings and then beginning to cross I-35, as it's coming towards me.

Link



Here it is, with the help of Neapolitan's YouTube Old Embed Coderizer :-)
2466. Grothar
2467. Torito
2468. Torito
TCFP still shows that spot in the carribbean.
Quoting barbamz:
Morning folks from another holiday in Germany. Amazing and as well scaring footages yesterday night about those unfortunately damaging and deadly tornados.
I cannot watch TWC from Germany. But the crazy adrenaline experience of your Jim Cantore is on youtube now.



Thanks for the vid.

Line of the day:

"Horizontal suction vortices!"
2470. Grothar
2471. Torito
What is wrong with the blog? it stopped updating right before i submitted a video...
2472. Torito
Never mind, it is fine to me now...
2473. Buhdog
Greetings Tropical talkers....

I have a feeling we are going to have a wet season in SWFL! I offer no proof or reasoning...just intuition!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2475. Torito
Quoting Buhdog:
Greetings Tropical talkers....

I have a feeling we are going to have a wet season in SWFL! I offer no proof or reasoning...just intuition!


Yea, it looks that way to me
Quoting yonzabam:


Tea. Trying to wean myself off, though. Think I might have caffeine sensitivity.

(Btw, it's 2 pm here in Scotland).
Yonza, 2 p.m. is just the sign that it's time for a tea break... lol

I've gone off tea since it's gotten so hard to find a decent plain China black out here. But I can feel you.

Somehow the decaf teabag thing doesn't work for me...

Quoting FlyingScotsman:
I don't like to pick on the NWS, who do a sterling job on the whole, but I do worry if they hurt their credibility a bit yesterday with that Wichita tornado emergency. The whole point of the new experiment with "impact-based wording" was to address the "boy who cried wolf" problem of tornado warnings%u2014the fact that people had so many false alarms with regular tornado warnings that they started ignoring them. The idea was that if they reserved really strong wording for really dangerous tornadoes, people would pay attention when it mattered most. And they pulled out their very strongest wording yesterday for a tornado that turned out to be an EF-1, on the ground for just a few minutes.

A few more missed calls like that, and people will start shrugging off even "catastrophic" warnings.

Unfortunately, I have to disagree with you - although I agree that we should continue to have social scientists address the false alarm rate and "boy who cried wolf." The purpose of the enhanced wording experiment, at least from service assessments where it was recommended and from justification statements for the experiment, was to try and get people to take action. It was a follow-up from our big tornadoes in recent years where people did not take action even though tornado warnings were in place and large tornadoes were bearing down on their location. The experiment was more of an attempt to be for forward with the consequences of not acting on the threat. The NWS pays more attention to the lead time statistics and POD statistics than FAR. But the wording experiment was not centered on addressing that situation.

In the case of Wichita yesterday, all indications are that spotters had observed a large tornado SW of the city. The circulation was close enough to the radar site that the beam was sampling below the mesocyclone (a somewhat rare situation, typically we just see rotation aloft) and it also suggested a strong tornado was possible. NWS Wichita had to make a call... a balance between their uncertainty that the tornado would maintain strength and the possibility that a large tornado was about to hit a large metro area. One could argue that they should have used a slightly lower level of wording until it was right on the outskirts of town or until we had a debris signature, but by then it may have been little lead time for SW Wichita. It's a tough call that has consequences either way.

It should also be noted that if that tornado had struck a more dense area of residences and businesses, it likely would not have been EF1. A mile wide tornado with 150mph winds could be rated EF0 if there are no damage indicators available to rate. The tornado has to damage something to be rated a higher value on the damage scale.
Oracle #2372... we have Cow!
ok well it was close anyhow.
You know...if I was the SPC...i wouldnt have been in OK and MO....prob would have relocated to pennsylvania or nevada or california or something.
Live Tornado on Video:

http://www.news9.com/category/258217/weather-cont rol-center