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U.S. Endures its Sultriest Summer Nights on Record

By: Bob Henson 11:53 PM GMT on September 08, 2016

The broiling summer of 2016 placed fifth hottest among the 122 summers since records began in 1895 for the contiguous U.S., according to NOAA analyses released on Thursday. Even more impressive, this past summer (June through August) saw the highest average minimum temperature on record--certainly no surprise to people across the country who endured one muggy night after another. The average daily minimum for June through August 2016 was a balmy 60.81°F, beating the record of 60.70°F set in 2010. The average daily summer low in the contiguous 48 states has climbed about 1.4°F in the last century. That’s double the increase of 0.7°F in the average daily summer high.


Figure 1. Average daily minimum temperatures for the contiguous U.S. for each summer from 1895 to 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI

Wetter, hotter American summer
In a climate warmed by increasing greenhouse gases, computer models and basic theory agree that nights should warm more quickly than days. In large part this is because of increasing atmospheric moisture that keeps nighttime temperatures up, even when that moisture doesn’t actually produce rain. Climate Central has a handy site that allows you to calculate the ongoing increase in summer dew point temperatures for more than 100 cities around the nation. In larger cities, there’s another human-produced climate effect in the mix: the urban heat island, whereby the pavement and buildings of metro areas heat up by day and release the heat by night. The urban heat island is only a small part of the global temperature picture, since rural areas and oceans are heating up as well.

California, Connecticut, and Rhode Island each saw their warmest summer on record in 2016, while many other states had a top-ten warmest summer. Some U.S. cities set records for their longest stretches above a certain temperature, and a few also saw their warmest summer overall, as noted by Chris Burt in a WU blog earlier this week. Among those setting all-time records for average summer temperature, including both daily highs and daily lows:

Anchorage, Alaska: 60.7° (previous 60.2° in 2015)
Charleston, South Carolina: 84.1° (previous 83.4° in 2011)
Las Vegas, Nevada: 93.1° (previous 92.5° in 2007)

See Chris’s post for other examples.


Figure 2. Statewide rankings for average temperature during June-August 2016, as compared to each June-August since 1895. Darker shades of orange indicate higher rankings for warmth, with 1 denoting the coldest month on record and 122 the warmest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 3. Statewide rankings for average precipitation during June-August 2016, as compared to each June-August since 1895. Darker shades of green indicate higher rankings for moisture, with 1 denoting the driest month on record and 122 the wettest. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 4. Corn stalks were stunted by lack of rain in this Barnstead, New Hampshire, field on September 2, 2016. The drought in southern New England and dry spells this summer further north mean that fall foliage could come earlier this year and not last as long in some areas. Image credit: AP Photo/Jim Cole.

Boston sees its driest summer on record, while the central U.S. was soaked
Large parts of the western and eastern U.S. had to deal with a scarcity of rain along with the heat this summer. It was the 24th wettest out of the past 122 summers nationwide, but that is largely due to the moisture surplus over the central U.S., centered on the Mississippi Valley. Eight states in this corridor had a top-ten wettest summer. Meanwile, the rest of the nation saw precious little rain overall. Wyoming, South Carolina, and Massachusetts all had top-ten driest summers. It’s been especially parched in New England, where parts of eastern Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire are now in extreme drought, according to Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor. Boston had its driest summer in records going back to 1872. Only 3.92” fell from June through August, breaking the record of 3.97” set in 1957.

August was both very warm (17th hottest) and very wet (2nd wettest) for the contiguous U.S. as a whole. Eight states saw their hottest August on record: Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. One state had its wettest August. Unsurprisingly, that was Louisiana, where a slow-moving low pressure system dumped massive amounts of rain and triggered unprecedented flooding in and near Baton Rouge. According to the August 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, damage from the flood was estimated at $10 - $15 billion, which will likely make it the second most expensive non-hurricane related flood in U.S. history, behind the $35 billion in damage from the summer 1993 flooding in the Midwest.


Figure 5. Mud-covered belongings line the floor of a home after floodwater receded on August 17, 2016, in Denham Springs, Louisiana. Image credit: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images.

Climate change made the Louisiana floods more likely
The mammoth rainfall in August that dumped 10” - 30” on a large part of southern Louisiana was probably twice as likely to occur because of the influence of human-produced greenhouse gases, according to a rapid-response study released on Tuesday. Researchers at Climate Central, NOAA, Princeton University, and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute analyzed output from several major climate model runs, covering both past and future climates, to see how this type of heavy-rain event has changed across the Central Gulf Coast from east Texas to western Florida.

Such an event was calculated to be at least 40% more likely—and probably twice as likely—due to the influence of climate change. Even in today’s climate, a rainfall of this size and scope remains a rarity, one that would now be expected once every 550 years at any particular point in the region, the study found. However, the expected frequency of getting such an event somewhere within the entire Gulf Coast study region is now about every 25-30 years—that is, frequent enough to play into infrastructure, building, and insurance decisions. Put another way, the intensity of a typical 25-30 year rainfall event in this region has gone up by at least 10%. When it comes to flooding, a small increase in water level can lead to a huge increase in impact.

This week’s report is part of the World Weather Attribution project, coordinated by Climate Central. The project brings in researchers around the globe to carry out prompt analyses of high-profile weather events and their potential links to climate change. Such studies have typically taken a year or two to complete, so the project has zeroed in on ways to produce these studies more quickly, while an event is still high on the public’s mind. For example, scientists can extract relevant detail from recent comprehensive model runs, rather than carrying out entirely new model runs from scratch.

Bernadette Woods Placky (Climate Central) mentioned another benefit in an email: “People usually assess and rebuild immediately after an event. This information can help inform that process, from the public to insurance to emergency managers to other decision makers. When we wait 1-2 years for this information, the plans are already finished or in the works.”

We’ll be back with our next update by Friday afternoon.

Bob Henson

Climate Summaries Climate Change Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Dead blog wonder why?
Thanks!
Thanks!
Quoting 1. help4u:

Dead blog wonder why?

You don't wonder, you know exactly why.
Ambushed yet again by a new Henson/Masters blog - I'm reposting this from the very end of the last blog.

I've been thinking about weather vs climate, and science vs denial while we are in a lull between tropical systems.

I am no longer shocked by the fact that some supposedly "weather literate" regulars here don't know the difference between climate and weather. They continue to look foolish when they regurgitate climate myths such as ""scientists can't even predict the weather next week - how can they predict the climate years from now".

In the real world, climate models - which try to estimate future averages - are quite accurate over recent decades, and are being refined as time goes by. (LINK)

Also, the link between hurricane intensity and global warming is not linear and simple, and actual climate scientists expect weaker hurricanes to not be affected much, but many strong hurricanes may be likely to be even stronger. Also, RI events are more likely to occur as ocean temps rise, and the oceans are definitely getting warmer - but not uniformly warmer. (LINK)

Even Hermine reminds us that had she been over water one or two more days, a brutal "wind and high surge monster" rather than a "moderate surge and rain maker" might have slammed into Florida.

It is the potential for increasing RI events - like Joaquin last year - that worry me. And I think that is part of why many of us watch tropical waves and invests like 93L even when they are de-listed. We don't really know when hurricane are going to quickly turn into monsters.

However, rather than accuse meteorologists and the NHC of incompetence, I am thankful for their dedication and service. I know that they do their very best to anticipate the development of storms, as well as try to figure out when to drop or minimize warnings. Many laypersons seem to be extremely ignorant of the concepts of likelihoods and probabilities and still insist on the impossible standard of 100% accuracy when such a goal is patently unattainable.

If the NHC experts under-estimate a dangerous storm, they are castigated and accused of incompetence. And if they over-estimate a storm which ends up having little impact, they are accused of "crying wolf". But even without the crying wolf part, aggressive forecasting and warnings can lead to complacency and the ignoring of future warnings until it is too late to get out of harm's way.
Quoting 1. help4u:

Dead blog wonder why?

With apologies to John le Carre, you must work for the same firm that built Stonehenge.
Skeptical Science website founder John Cook has completed his graduate work at Australia's Queensland University with a PhD in cognitive psychology, based on "researching how people think about climate change."

In January, he will relocate to the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University, a Virginia State University in Fairfax County.

Congratulations, John. It will be a big change from Australia, and I look forward to following your efforts in a critical area of research.
!!! Obama on Climate Change: The Trends Are 'Terrifying' (with 14 minute video interview of President Obama)
After today I'll be back in 2 weeks.
OT:

I've never seen this before, it may be common, or maybe not.... but there are a couple of spinning 'systems, one clockwise, the other counterclockwise, of similar size, perhaps a few hundred miles across each, right next to each other and right on the equator at the 250 MB level:

Link
Came out of lurking to say:
"Hey that looks just like my corn in Central Florida!"

:)

Quoting 7. Xulonn:

Skeptical Science website founder John Cook has completed his graduate work at Australia's Queensland University with a PhD in cognitive psychology, based on "researching how people think about climate change."

In January, he will relocate to the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University, a Virginia State University in Fairfax County.

Congratulations, John. It will be a big change from Australia, and I look forward to following your efforts in a critical area of research.


Not to take away from John Cook, but psycholgist Jerry Kroth has an interesting video on youtube about this very topic for those that are interested

Link
15. SLU
94L INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 09, 2016:

Location: 11.3°N 34.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
16. SLU
Quoting 16. SLU:



Ian is likely coming and will likely peak as a moderate tropical storm.
Quoting 9. BaltimoreBrian:

After today I'll be back in 2 weeks.


Vacay or Call of Duty? Hope it is a vacation - have fun.
Thanks Mr. Henson..Has been ridiculously muggy here in TN for months with a few very small breaks. Further warming may have a huge affect on future weather and climate...Higher ran and snowfall totals for many areas, with large drought areas in places that usually do not have them...jmo
Quoting 5. Xulonn:

However, rather than accuse meteorologists and the NHC of incompetence, I am thankful for their dedication and service. I know that they do their very best to anticipate the development of storms, as well as try to figure out when to drop or minimize warnings. Many laypersons seem to be extremely ignorant of the concepts of likelihoods and probabilities and still insist on the impossible standard of 100% accuracy when such a goal is patently unattainable.

If the NHC experts under-estimate a dangerous storm, they are castigated and accused of incompetence. And if they over-estimate a storm which ends up having little impact, they are accused of "crying wolf". But even without the crying wolf part, aggressive forecasting and warnings can lead to complacency and the ignoring of future warnings until it is too late to get out of harm's way.


There's a negative feedback issue -- the climate is changing, meaning storms no longer behave as they have in the past, meaning warnings and forecasts might not be as accurate as they could, meaning laypeople see busted forecasts and assume the experts don't know what they're talking about. Here in southern Maine, where we desperately need some rain, the 7-day forecasts have been changing completely from one day to the next.

Many people are naturally contrarian. They jump at any chance, however irrational, to "prove" supposedly smarter people wrong. So when you tell them, for example, that global warming means hurricanes are going to become more frequent and more intense, and then ten years later they can't even remember what a hurricane landfall was like, that's all the "proof" they need.
AL, 94, 2016090806, , BEST, 0, 105N, 285W, 20, 1010, WV
AL, 94, 2016090812, , BEST, 0, 107N, 302W, 20, 1010, WV
AL, 94, 2016090818, , BEST, 0, 108N, 324W, 20, 1010, WV
AL, 94, 2016090900, , BEST, 0, 109N, 346W, 20, 1010, WV

Quoting 1. help4u:

Dead blog wonder why?
Probably because you made the first comment.
Quoting 20. MaineGuy:



There's a negative feedback issue -- the climate is changing, meaning storms no longer behave as they have in the past, meaning warnings and forecasts might not be as accurate as they could, meaning laypeople see busted forecasts and assume the experts don't know what they're talking about. Here in southern Maine, where we desperately need some rain, the 7-day forecasts have been changing completely from one day to the next.

Many people are naturally contrarian. They jump at any chance, however irrational, to "prove" supposedly smarter people wrong. So when you tell them, for example, that global warming means hurricanes are going to become more frequent and more intense, and then ten years later they can't even remember what a hurricane landfall was like, that's all the "proof" they need.
Yep..Kinda like the person who got it right 500 times, they make one minor mistake, and jump on that person like starving wolves on a sick and dying deer.
25. IDTH
Quoting 23. hydrus:

Probably because you made the first comment.

OOOOOOOHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Quoting 18. Dakster:

Vacay or Call of Duty? Hope it is a vacation - have fun.
We're going to New Caledonia. It's paradise, if you can bear it. The weather forecast
Quoting 14. MontanaZephyr:


Not to take away from John Cook, but psycholgist Jerry Kroth has an interesting video on youtube about this very topic for those that are interested

Link
Long video, but it looks interesting. No "taking away" here - simply more psychology-based information about the nature of denialism.

There was a regular commenter here who used to accuse me of claiming that people were mentally ill if they exhibited denialism. She just could not accept that psychology is the study of human thinking and behavior - and not always about mental illness. I was hounded endlessly to provide a mental disease classification, and since denialism is not classified as a mental illness, it was claimed that therefore AGW/CC denialism couldn't exist.

I had many face palm moments in those days.
A beeline with a big blow-up...
"NEAR TAU 96, TD 16W IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS VWS RELAXES, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INCREASES, AND THE CYCLONE DRIFTS INTO EVEN WARMER SSTS (GREATER THAN 30C). THE SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY STRONG TYPHOON AT 110 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST."
Thank you for the updates Mr. Henson...
Thanks for the update Bob and Doc! Very surprised to see this didn't end up being the hottest summer on record. I thought it was a shoo-in. I have a feeling the data is less than ideal. I added a new blog with some of the figures here in the eastern Lakes: Link

A quick summary: Hottest on record at Cleveland (1871-present), Akron/Canton (1887-present), Detroit (1874-present). 2nd hottest at Mansfield, Ohio (1916-present) and at Rochester, NY (1871-present). 3rd hottest at Flint (1893-present) and at Buffalo (1873-present). 4th hottest at Erie (1873-present). 5th hottest at Lansing, MI (1863-present) and at Milwaukee, WI (1872-present). 8th hottest at Pittsburgh (1871-present) (despite the fact that readings were kept on a rooftop downtown until 1935 - second hottest behind only 1995 since airport records began (in 1935 at AGC, and then at PIT in 1952). Very hot here. Most places have now had FOUR years in the top 10-15 hottest summers (since the mid- to late-19th century) just this decade! What's impressive is many of the other very hot years (1934, 1988, and 2012, for instance) had extreme droughts over much of the country - which was largely absent this year. The humidity was definitely up though. Now locally we did have a modest drought (more severe further to the NE), but the center of the country saw plentiful rain this summer. Also worth noting Great Lake temps were off the charts again this summer. Per GLERL, it looks like Superior rivaled if not beat out the widely-reported 2012 record surface temp. At Buffalo, the temperature at the water intake crib reached 79 for only the 4th time on record (since 1926!). The other three times were 1988, 2006, and 2011. In 1988 and 2011, it peaked at 80. Notice any trend there, folks?

Please feel free to check out the blog, and leave comments.
Relocated back to the Knoxville, Tn area last October. We had some decent snow January and February, but this summer has been hot and dry. I feel like I never moved from Texas haha


Quoting 28. SPShaw:

A beeline with a big blow-up...
"NEAR TAU 96, TD 16W IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS VWS RELAXES, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INCREASES, AND THE CYCLONE DRIFTS INTO EVEN WARMER SSTS (GREATER THAN 30C). THE SYSTEM WILL BE A VERY STRONG TYPHOON AT 110 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST."


Quoting 26. BaltimoreBrian:

We're going to New Caledonia. It's paradise, if you can bear it.


SWEET... Have fun!

That is on my bucket list... Hawaii is too - would like to see the Pearl Harbour Memorial.
I did want to add that the +0.14F/decade trend actually corresponds to approximately 1.7F increase over the 122 year period of record. By limiting it to 100 years, you shave off approximately 20% of the increase. But I also wanted to note that the way the trend lines are drawn minimizes the actual increase, because the earliest years are all below the trend line and the more recent years are all above the trend line. There must be a better way of discerning the actual increase than by use of a linear trend line. Also, if you included more data earlier in the period (which was likely actually cooler than 1895), the trend would increase even further.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

Just to illustrate my point, take a look at the chart of Lansing, Michigan temperatures where reliable measurements have been taken since 1863. Notice in the early years annual mean temperatures were clustered around 42-44F. In recent years, they've been clustering from 50-52 with a few outliers. A trend line would easily wipe out 40% or more of the increase. Also worth noting this particular chart is based on the period September 1 through August 31. As you can see, at Lansing it's been the second hottest such stretch behind only 2011-12. This is the case in almost all of the places I've looked at - actually in a few 2015-16 is beating out 2011-12!

My point is the climate is currently warming at a very alarming rate, likely faster than widely believed. I would expect another 10-15 degrees of warming by the end of this century. Truly, a planetary emergency.
Could someone explain why it has been overly dry this year in nj? The only notable precipitation event I can remember from this year is the blizzard in late January.
93L, the artist formally known as 92L? Seems one quarter eye is warranted here.



This, I think this pretty cool (no pun intended). A great way to quickly take in what is actually happening to us on earth. A few more years to go before the "climate" will have officially shifted to a whole new, never-before-seen experience for humans. Sad as that may be for a number of folks.

167 Tiny Maps Tell the Major Story of Climate Change



The grey indicates areas where data is missing.

A larger version - for those of us visually challenged (clicking that link will open a 10 MB file).
One quarter eye in the Bahamas....



Quoting 32. ClimateChange:

Thanks for the update Bob and Doc! Very surprised to see this didn't end up being the hottest summer on record. I thought it was a shoo-in. I have a feeling the data is less than ideal. I added a new blog with some of the figures here in the eastern Lakes: Link

A quick summary: Hottest on record at Cleveland (1871-present), Akron/Canton (1887-present), Detroit (1874-present). 2nd hottest at Mansfield, Ohio (1916-present) and at Rochester, NY (1871-present). 3rd hottest at Flint (1893-present) and at Buffalo (1873-present). 4th hottest at Erie (1873-present). 5th hottest at Lansing, MI (1863-present) and at Milwaukee, WI (1872-present). 8th hottest at Pittsburgh (1871-present) (despite the fact that readings were kept on a rooftop downtown until 1935 - second hottest behind only 1995 since airport records began (in 1935 at AGC, and then at PIT in 1952). Very hot here. Most places have now had FOUR years in the top 10-15 hottest summers (since the mid- to late-19th century) just this decade! What's impressive is many of the other very hot years (1934, 1988, and 2012, for instance) had extreme droughts over much of the country - which was largely absent this year. The humidity was definitely up though. Now locally we did have a modest drought (more severe further to the NE), but the center of the country saw plentiful rain this summer. Also worth noting Great Lake temps were off the charts again this summer. Per GLERL, it looks like Superior rivaled if not beat out the widely-reported 2012 record surface temp. At Buffalo, the temperature at the water intake crib reached 79 for only the 4th time on record (since 1926!). The other three times were 1988, 2006, and 2011. In 1988 and 2011, it peaked at 80. Notice any trend there, folks?

Please feel free to check out the blog, and leave comments.


DC area all four of the hottest summers have occurred since 2010,

Washington DC Area (Reagan National Airport, DCA)
1. 81.3 degrees (2010)
2. 81.1 degrees (2011)
3. 80.6 degrees (2016)
4. 80.4 degrees (2012)
5. 80.0 degrees (1980)

Also second warmest August of record, 82.7 afte 1980 (82.7+) 81.3 in 1995 and 1978 are distant third place.

Six of our past twelve warmest calendar months have occurred in the past 10 years

Oct 2007
June 2010
July 2011
March 2012
May 2015
December 2015

Spring 2012 was also our warmest calendar month spring season. Two of the past four warmest calendar seasons have occurred since the beginning of 2010.

Calendar 2012 was also our warmest year.


Quoting 37. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Could someone explain why it has been overly dry this year in nj? The only notable precipitation event I can remember from this year is the blizzard in late January.


Given the precipitation pattern shown above, it seems like a trough has been persistent over the mid-west, and a high pressure system has been established in the NE. The Jet stream has not dipped down in your neck of the woods for a bit, thus - no rain.

Quoting 5. Xulonn:

Ambushed yet again by a new Henson/Masters blog - I'm reposting this from the very end of the last blog.

I've been thinking about weather vs climate, and science vs denial while we are in a lull between tropical systems.

I am no longer shocked by the fact that some supposedly "weather literate" regulars here don't know the difference between climate and weather. They continue to look foolish when they regurgitate climate myths such as ""scientists can't even predict the weather next week - how can they predict the climate years from now".

In the real world, climate models - which try to estimate future averages - are quite accurate over recent decades, and are being refined as time goes by. (LINK)

Also, the link between hurricane intensity and global warming is not linear and simple, and actual climate scientists expect weaker hurricanes to not be affected much, but many strong hurricanes may be likely to be even stronger. Also, RI events are more likely to occur as ocean temps rise, and the oceans are definitely getting warmer - but not uniformly warmer. (LINK)

Even Hermine reminds us that had she been over water one or two more days, a brutal "wind and high surge monster" rather than a "moderate surge and rain maker" might have slammed into Florida.

It is the potential for increasing RI events - like Joaquin last year - that worry me. And I think that is part of why many of us watch tropical waves and invests like 93L even when they are de-listed. We don't really know when hurricane are going to quickly turn into monsters.

However, rather than accuse meteorologists and the NHC of incompetence, I am thankful for their dedication and service. I know that they do their very best to anticipate the development of storms, as well as try to figure out when to drop or minimize warnings. Many laypersons seem to be extremely ignorant of the concepts of likelihoods and probabilities and still insist on the impossible standard of 100% accuracy when such a goal is patently unattainable.

If the NHC experts under-estimate a dangerous storm, they are castigated and accused of incompetence. And if they over-estimate a storm which ends up having little impact, they are accused of "crying wolf". But even without the crying wolf part, aggressive forecasting and warnings can lead to complacency and the ignoring of future warnings until it is too late to get out of harm's way.


Never did I accuse anybody of imcompatance. A blind chimp can see the climate is changing and as I said anything that limits the pollutants going in to the air is a good thing  
My problem is with the scare tactics and doomsday scenarios being thrown out to further agendas  New York was going to be under water by 2015 ?  Every heat wave is a highlight every cold snap is a foot note  people were screaming Sandy was because of climate change yet almost an identical storm occurred 70 before on the exact date ,  the California drought is climate change ?  There are tree ring studies showing severe droughts lasting hundreds of years in California . Those are just a few examples of many 
It has become a case of follow the money and you get the opinion .  the going back and lowering temps was the one that really got me. Why was it done ? Well no proof but they just had to be wrong .  As I stated in the previous blog the climate is changing but not every event is due to climate change 

End of rant 

The least amount of SAL is happening right now In the Atlantic. Vertical instability is where it is supposed to be. 94L is a beast of a wave. It looks like I could break out the ol the surf board and ride it. The Atlantic is going to be busy this month.
Quoting 29. BaltimoreBrian:

Watch Live: NASA Asteroid Mission
Thanks for the link. I watched the launch live a few hours ago standing about 150 ft outside my front door. Smallish Atlas V configuration wasn't that spectacular from 50 miles away but it was clear as a bell. A launch is a launch but for me there's something extra special about an actual scientific mission spacecraft being launched as opposed to, say, commercial or DoD payloads or run of the mill ISS supply ships.

Quoting 12. BaltimoreBrian:

Catfished by a Catfish: 1 in 5 Seafood Samples Is Fake, Report Finds

Also thanks for this link. Very interesting. I ordered grouper (a $27 menu item) last weekend in a Melbourne (FL) restaurant. I love grouper but it's always pricey when you can find it around here. The thought passed through my mind as I was enjoying dinner, "How do I know that this is really grouper?" There's no way to really tell without a portable fish DNA testing kit. I'd actually buy one of those. They take fish very seriously here in Florida, or so they say. They busted a couple of local eateries over the summer for buying fish from unauthorized sources. The state is gung-ho about regulating fish sold by out-of-state suppliers while they try to bolster the livlihoods of Florida fishermen. It has more to do with economics than truth-in-labelling species, though.
Quoting 43. Barkeep1967:


Never did I accuse anybody of imcompatance. A blind chimp can see the climate is changing and as I said anything that limits the pollutants going in to the air is a good thing
My problem is with the scare tactics and doomsday scenarios being thrown out to further agendas New York was going to be under water by 2015 ? Every heat wave is a highlight every cold snap is a foot note people were screaming Sandy was because of climate change yet almost an identical storm occurred 70 before on the exact date , the California drought is climate change ? There are tree ring studies showing severe droughts lasting hundreds of years in California . Those are just a few examples of many
It has become a case of follow the money and you get the opinion . the going back and lowering temps was the one that really got me. Why was it done ? Well no proof but they just had to be wrong . As I stated in the previous blog the climate is changing but not every event is due to climate change



Follow the money and it leads to those in the energy industry that lied. manipulated, sowed dissention, bought and paid for "research", and paid spokesmen to scream "FOUL" at any mention of how to responsibly address the issue in a meaningful way.

Data can be biased for a number of reasons. For example, in my field there is a certain bias for introducing different errors in DNA sequences based upon the type of platform or DNA sequencing kit that you use. So, you analyze, and in some instances, correct the data based upon the known biases. There is nothing wrong for correcting any errors that have been introduced, provided that you have evidence to do so.

Addendum: In fact, once you have evidence of these biases, it would be irresponsible not to correct the data.
Festering in the Bahamas is bothersome. ULAC is nearby, we'll see what happens next few days. Surely abnormal convection in that region tonight.

Quoting 34. GeoffreyWPB:







Pretty outflow...good enviroment...hot SST...low wind shear...pretty circulation...If this thing wants, it could be the 2nd Super Typhoon of Season. I'm not saying a 160 mph, but...150 mph for sure...With this pattern in the satellite in only 12 hours of life...the storm is impressive healthy.
Quoting 37. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Could someone explain why it has been overly dry this year in nj? The only notable precipitation event I can remember from this year is the blizzard in late January.
New Jersey has one of the highest rates of vehicle use per square mile of land area, many of which are heavy trucks emitting a lot of soot particles. As was pointed out in an earlier comment, the presence of soot and other dark aerosol particles in the atmosphere warms the air as they absorb solar energy, and the warm air reduces the relative humidity as well as vertical instability, given the same amount of moisture in the air. The reduced humidity and reduced vertical instability reduces the chance of rain storm formation, so New Jersey's dryness is probably a product of the local climate change induced by the heavy truck traffic on I-95.
Quoting 42. daddyjames:



Given the precipitation pattern shown above, it seems like a trough has been persistent over the mid-west, and a high pressure system has been established in the NE. The Jet stream has not dipped down in your neck of the woods for a bit, thus - no rain.
Quoting 49. CaneFreeCR:

New Jersey has one of the highest rates of vehicle use per square mile of land area, many of which are heavy trucks emitting a lot of soot particles. As was pointed out in an earlier comment, the presence of soot and other dark aerosol particles in the atmosphere warms the air as they absorb solar energy, and the warm air reduces the relative humidity as well as vertical instability, given the same amount of moisture in the air. The reduced humidity and reduced vertical instability reduces the chance of rain storm formation, so New Jersey's dryness is probably a product of the local climate change induced by the heavy truck traffic on I-95.

Thank you! I am hoping for rain.
Quoting 38. ProgressivePulse:

93L, the artist formally known as 92L? Seems one quarter eye is warranted here.






No, what's left of 92L is currently over Cuba. Things are looking interesting for next week - I believe 94L will become a large category 1 hurricane.
Quoting 50. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Thank you! I am hoping for rain.


I don't blame you - and further evidence requires me to modify my statement. Apparently, you have been having fronts passing through, but because of the jet stream pattern and the overall flow of moisture, the Mid-West has benefited and you all in New England have had dry fronts passing through. Essentially, all the moisture has been wrung out of them by the time they get to your neck of the woods.
Quoting 50. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Thank you! I am hoping for rain.
Quoting 49. CaneFreeCR:

New Jersey has one of the highest rates of vehicle use per square mile of land area, many of which are heavy trucks emitting a lot of soot particles. As was pointed out in an earlier comment, the presence of soot and other dark aerosol particles in the atmosphere warms the air as they absorb solar energy, and the warm air reduces the relative humidity as well as vertical instability, given the same amount of moisture in the air. The reduced humidity and reduced vertical instability reduces the chance of rain storm formation, so New Jersey's dryness is probably a product of the local climate change induced by the heavy truck traffic on I-95.


Assuming your sarcasm flag is on.
Coast Guard's Last Lightkeeper Looks to 300-Year Milestone (with video) Boston Light's 300-year anniversary is September 14th.
Quoting 51. Envoirment:



No, what's left of 92L is currently over Cuba. Things are looking interesting for next week - I believe 94L will become a large category 1 hurricane.


Old 92L?
Quoting 49. CaneFreeCR:

New Jersey has one of the highest rates of vehicle use per square mile of land area, many of which are heavy trucks emitting a lot of soot particles. As was pointed out in an earlier comment, the presence of soot and other dark aerosol particles in the atmosphere warms the air as they absorb solar energy, and the warm air reduces the relative humidity as well as vertical instability, given the same amount of moisture in the air. The reduced humidity and reduced vertical instability reduces the chance of rain storm formation, so New Jersey's dryness is probably a product of the local climate change induced by the heavy truck traffic on I-95.
actually the opposite is true pollution actually increases precip, because it catalyzes the condenstation of water droplets (kind of like Cloud Seeding) which is why its more likely to rain during the weekends (Fri-Sun) then at the beginning of the week.
93L has a runaway spin. Old 92L actually more interesting . Been sitting there and an AC nearby.
Quoting 32. ClimateChange:

Thanks for the update Bob and Doc! Very surprised to see this didn't end up being the hottest summer on record.
2016 overall as of dec 31 2016 will be the warmest year ever recorded watch wait and see
UrcaDeLima, here's an old article about restaurants in Florida claiming fish is locally caught on the menu just because it comes from a local distributor. Who imports fish.

In Florida, the Seafood Becomes Less Local

This happens all the time in Baltimore too. A lot of the 'Chesapeake Bay' crab is imported.
Quoting 59. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

2016 overall as of dec 31 2016 will be the warmest year ever recorded watch wait and see


until 2017 comes along . . .
Quoting 61. daddyjames:



until 2017 comes along . . .
pretty much and so on and so forth faster and faster steady as she goes

16W has redeye. Now watch the pupil dilate over the next 24 hours.
Quoting 62. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

pretty much and so on and so forth faster and faster steady as she goes


Not even steady if the temps sart rising at an exponential rate.

Speaking of warm and muggy, that has been OK the past couple of days. Breeze out of the South has been hot and humid. Cannot wait for the front to come through this weekend that'll cool things down.
Quoting 47. ProgressivePulse:

Festering in the Bahamas is bothersome. ULAC is nearby, we'll see what happens next few days. Surely abnormal convection in that region tonight.



GFS holds it around north coast of Cuba. 24 hrs.

Quoting 45. UrcaDeLima:

Thanks for the link. I watched the launch live a few hours ago standing about 150 ft outside my front door. Smallish Atlas V configuration wasn't that spectacular from 50 miles away but it was clear as a bell. A launch is a launch but for me there's something extra special about an actual scientific mission spacecraft being launched as opposed to, say, commercial or DoD payloads or run of the mill ISS supply ships.

Also thanks for this link. Very interesting. I ordered grouper (a $27 menu item) last weekend in a Melbourne (FL) restaurant. I love grouper but it's always pricey when you can find it around here. The thought passed through my mind as I was enjoying dinner, "How do I know that this is really grouper?" There's no way to really tell without a portable fish DNA testing kit. I'd actually buy one of those. They take fish very seriously here in Florida, or so they say. They busted a couple of local eateries over the summer for buying fish from unauthorized sources. The state is gung-ho about regulating fish sold by out-of-state suppliers while they try to bolster the livlihoods of Florida fishermen. It has more to do with economics than truth-in-labelling species, though.


Urca - you can. They are a bit pricey, and there seems to be some issues about using them in the US as another company is claiming "patent-infringement" (which most likely is not the case).

A company called Oxford-Nanopore is developing a DNA sequencing platform that runs on a USB stick. Yup, follow the directions, sequence what you want on your laptop/tablet. Of course, they are still ironing out the wrinkles, it is in its infancy, but it is very promising (although a bit pricey) . . . how do I know? The other company suing them for patent infringement is the leading maker of DNA sequencing equipment in the US (world), and would go out of business if this technology were to succeed. So, when you can't compete - sue.
Quoting 35. Dakster:

SWEET... Have fun!

That is on my bucket list... Hawaii is too - would like to see the Pearl Harbour Memorial.
New Caledonia is the most beautiful place I've ever been!
La Nina has been officially cancelled.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 September 2016

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

Synopsis: ENSO-Neutral conditions are slightly favored (between 55-60%) during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016-17.

Quoting 46. daddyjames:



Follow the money and it leads to those in the energy industry that lied. manipulated, sowed dissention, bought and paid for "research", and paid spokesmen to scream "FOUL" at any mention of how to responsibly address the issue in a meaningful way.

Data can be biased for a number of reasons. For example, in my field there is a certain bias for introducing different errors in DNA sequences based upon the type of platform or DNA sequencing kit that you use. So, you analyze, and in some instances, correct the data based upon the known biases. There is nothing wrong for correcting any errors that have been introduced, provided that you have evidence to do so.

Addendum: In fact, once you have evidence of these biases, it would be irresponsible not to correct the data.
Al Gore I a big time stock holder in DuPont technologies who stands to make boatloads of money off alternative energy. It goes both ways 
Changing data if you have sufficient evidence yes in this case however there can not possibly be concrete evidence the thermometers said what they said. This is like changing a home run to a foul ball in the 1901 World Series because somebody claimed it was foul . 
I am one of the few in the middle and understand both sides tough spot to be in at times being disliked by everybody for not 100% agreeing with anybody 
Quoting 69. Barkeep1967:


Al Gore I a big time stock holder in DuPont technologies who stands to make boatloads of money off alternative energy. It goes both ways%uFFFD
Changing data if you have sufficient evidence yes in this case however there can not possibly be concrete evidence the thermometers said what they said. This is like changing a home run to a foul ball in the 1901 World Series because somebody claimed it was foul .%uFFFD
I am one of the few in the middle and understand both sides tough spot to be in at times being disliked by everybody for not 100% agreeing with anybody%uFFFD


I feel ya in that regards, as exaggerations on both sides of any issue are counterproductive and only fuel the other side to respond in kind. And as much as I disagree and dislike what the energy companies have done, in some respects it is an understandable response.
Looking at what has gone down the past 4 decades, one side has certainly profited more than the other. And disregarding an obvious "bias" towards Al Gore, everyone has to make a living. If that is trying to initiate a discussion to adopt policies and educate people about the challenges that we will face if steps are not taken to prevent things from running out of control, well - I'll go for the guy who is trying to help me and not those that are in it to help themselves for short term gains that are vastly out-weighed by the long term damage.
Those in energy will witness the destruction of the very business they tried so hard to "protect" as more and more impacts are felt and more lawsuits are filed in the upcoming decades.

Edit: Clarification of a point I was making.
humidex temps has just fell below 90 as of 11 pm my local time

Temperature:
75.0°F
Dewpoint:
67.8°F
Humidity:
78%
Wind:
WNW 4 mph
Humidex:
89

Quoting 70. daddyjames:



I feel ya in that regards, as exaggerations on both sides of any issue are counterproductive and only fuel the other side to respond in kind. And as much as I disagree and dislike what the energy companies have done, in some respects it is an understandable response.
Looking at what has gone down the past 4 decades, one side has certainly profited more than the other. And disregarding an obvious "bias" towards Al Gore, everyone has to make a living. if that is trying to initiate a discussion to adopt policies and educate people about the challenges that we will face if steps are not taken to prevent things from running out of control, well - I'll go for the guy who is trying to help me and not those that are in it to help themselves by short term gains that vastly out-weigh the long term damage.
Those in energy will witness the destruction of the very business they tried so hard to "protect" as more and more impacts are felt and more lawsuits are filed in the upcoming decades.

I can not and will not argue that at all.  Good post 

Regarding intensity of a 25-30 year rainfall being increased 10%: If the atmosphere is to have 10% more water vapor, the dew point would be higher by about 1.4 degrees C or 2.5 degrees F. The world has not warmed this much, and the tropics and near-tropics, including their waters, have warmed less than the world as a whole did.
74. 7544
the area north of cuba- bahamas looking to get blobish at this hour keep one eye on it it could pull a fast one while u are asleep imo
Quoting 70. daddyjames:



Those in energy will witness the destruction of the very business they tried so hard to "protect" as more and more impacts are felt and more lawsuits are filed in the upcoming decades.

Good luck with that. They are too big and too powerful to fail. Besides, you are looking the wrong way. The United States and Europe are old news. The growth over the next 25 to 50 years will be in Asia. The billions that will enter the middle class for the first time want their piece of the pie and they will get it. Nobody is stopping that train.
the atlantic looks shut down right now look at all the shear right now i really do not see any thing coming from 93L or 94L it is vary unfavorable this is some in you would normal find in winter

About how much to blame increase of greenhouse gases and how much to blame growth of urbanization for low temperatures increasing more than high temperatures: I think the growth of urbanization has a lot to do with this, on a nationwide scale. The urban heat island effect is nonlinear, in a direction towards logarhythmic. Growth of moderately small towns, and population density increases where only a few people per square mile live, have an effect.

The increase of average house size (and household energy consumption) in the increasingly sprawling suburbs has also had an effect, and at night when there is often no significant convection this blows downwind quite a ways. I have noticed low temperatures at Philadelphia International Airport increasing and late-night and early-morning relative humidities decreasing after the 1970s, and I think the large number of energy-hungry "mcmansions" popping up outside the Wash-DC and Baltimore beltways and in NW Delaware and along and shortly W/NW of PA 202 are a significant factor here. I have noticed low temperatures increasing and late-night / early-morning relative humidities decreasing after the late 1970s at all stations (except possibly Mt. Pocono, which I did not pay attention to) reported continuously since then in easily-accessible reports by the Philadelphia / Mt. Holly National Weather Service forecast office.
Quoting 75. JParsons:


Good luck with that. They are too big and too powerful to fail. Besides, you are looking the wrong way. The United States and Europe are old news. The growth over the next 25 to 50 years will be in Asia. The billions that will enter the middle class for the first time want their piece of the pie and they will get it. Nobody is stopping that train.


We'll see, but the handwriting is already on the wall in regards to a massive shift in the energy industry, and potential "liability" issues.
In regards to China and India as well, they are already experiencing the direct effects of relying on fossil fuels, and as the costs (economics) of lost productivity add up - they will come around.
Growth - China has stalled and is desperately trying to hang on and avoid a freefall, as the "growth" they experienced was built on a house of cards.
Desperate to hang on, if those folks that are middle and upperclass start losing what they have gained, that spells political upheaval in China. Something the government there - and the rest of us for that matter - should hope does not happen violently.
94L moving further west.
80. vis0
OBS FIRST::
CREDIT:: NOAA, Washington state University-WWLLN lightning network
OBS:: several spins none well defined yet though since BIG grabs attention the spin(s) at ~35W 12N has some people.
attention, my peepers are focused on near by activities.
D&T:: 201609090245UTC
NOTE:: Created overlay of AVN imagery so it might be a micron off here or there.


image host


 

RECREATION:
--------------enjoy the below, then breath correctly and get back to observing nature *reason i posted how to breathe correctly was so any negative feeling built up by how one takes in comments could be released therefore think before clearly before we reply, dammit!...oops.  How do i ease my stress... i make 4 VERY grilled (dry) cheese sandwiches then use one of though melon cutter that cuts melons into 9 mini cubes and pile-drive that cutter onto the stack of grills vwualla 28 grilled bite sized sandwich cubes.

 

 image host
(if i only looked this good...in my 30s ...1980-90s )

i missed the Grothar selfOH!s, did hear the sound of lady members screaming earlier but i thought i mouse had gotten loose or barbamz saw a spider (promise spider will no pop up onto screen saving that for later)

 
1] Grothar is modest and should have not Photoshopped Nessy out of the image and Gecko who was passing by for some acting tips.

 
2] Grothar should not be worried so what if this is STS "coffee can", aquak9 we call it a weather station rain-fall gauge...  
 

(vis0 wondering where those wet dogs cam from that are pulling at vis0s trousers...and worse why is vis0 wearing trousers at 3AM)

 
...Grothar was helping STS clean out his rain gauge it measures yearly rainfalls.

 
3] Though Grothar insist he got a great deal i still think the 2 fer $20 T-Shirt printing should have costs $5.50 ...c'mon Gecko size at most 50cents...i could've saved you 15 dollars in 10 mins.

 

PHOTO CREDIT:: (again images yanked from sites without visiting the pages careful when visiting unknown sites)

NESSY: http://blackrainbownihon.blogspot.com/2011/07/loch -ness-monster-legend-of-messy.html

Gecko:: Whomever owns those rights

 

Back to the WxOBs and weird thing we in NYC area are going to have a "skinsense" of 100F (2 areas in NJ had "skinsense" of 100F, 1 official 2 unofficial)
While on the subject of heat...

The last two summers have been odd.

Instead of the periodic extreme heat waves followed by more normal heat cycles, we've been getting a few degrees above average highs for... weeks. And fewer of the extreme triple digits, more of the on, and on, and on lower triple digits. I wouldn't be shocked at all to know that the average is higher here.

Winter, I suspect, is going to be odd also. We got close to first frost three nights ago, but are back in the 90's again.
Bob, you can't tell me if my golf game tomorrow will be rained out. But you climate change computer model geniuses can blame the Louisiana floods on me and my buddies driving our cars to the course .
83. vis0
From:: Dr. Masters blogbyte #3421p3::

Quoting 104. Sfloridacat5:


Aren't "Herbert Boxes" for a system that is already developed?
Quoting 106. unknowncomic:

Not even in the box yet. Give it a chance.
As long as Nature doesn't turn those boxes into a "jack n the box" sudden surprise... or should i say "Ian" i guess an early call is not a very bad thing after all its a blog...then there is D-Triangle
Quoting 60. BaltimoreBrian:

UrcaDeLima, here's an old article about restaurants in Florida claiming fish is locally caught on the menu just because it comes from a local distributor. Who imports fish.

In Florida, the Seafood Becomes Less Local

This happens all the time in Baltimore too. A lot of the 'Chesapeake Bay' crab is imported.



In the UK as well. Despite being an island, a lot of seafood, and indeed what makes 'British' fish-n-chips, is imported. Funny with the whole Brexit thing :/


As for the blogs info showing Calif as having record warmth..ok, not there any more, but all my old friends there have def been saying how hot it's been. Even without this, it has been warmer there than it ever was when I was there from birth. I always thought of coastal San Diego, as having a pretty ideal, temperate-cool climate before. But no more for sure. Am still thinking Norway now LOL

Quoting 82. unclenoon:

Bob, you can't tell me if my golf game tomorrow will be rained out. But you climate change computer model geniuses can blame the Louisiana floods on me and my buddies driving our cars to the course .


Ok that is pretty funny 
Quoting 85. BaltimoreBrian:

Crimson Tide: Residents stunned as Russian river turns red




But don't worry, it's the normal color of the river.
Sup...
92L is long gone. This area (93L) had a nice LLC for awhile, with limited convection, for almost 5 days before the NHC picked up on it. Now the LLC has dissipated, and most likely will not develop.


Quoting 38. ProgressivePulse:

93L, the artist formally known as 92L? Seems one quarter eye is warranted here.




91. vis0

Quoting 7. Xulonn:

Skeptical Science website founder John Cook has completed his graduate work at Australia's Queensland University with a PhD in cognitive psychology, based on "researching how people think about climate change."

In January, he will relocate to the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University, a Virginia State University in Fairfax County.

Congratulations, John. It will be a big change from Australia, and I look forward to following your efforts in a critical area of research.
PLEASE READ THIS
(To most it will not be thought to be weather/climate related but it is)
92. vis0

Quoting 51. Envoirment:



No, what's left of 92L is currently over Cuba. Things are looking interesting for next week - I believe 94L will become a large category 1 hurricane.
in my haste on the past Dr. Masters blog i made the error of calling 93L, 92L and vice versa...forgive me 90s?
93. vis0

Quoting 76. thetwilightzone:

the atlantic looks shut down right now look at all the shear right now i really do not see any thing coming from 93L or 94L it is vary unfavorable this is some in you would normal find in winter


shut down!

i see the Atlantic simmering ...add some Unjunz, some parsley 3 chopped yellow, orange and red peppers mix tlll the peepers blend into 2 swirling portions and ...
game over for now
heaviest precip at the moment in the atlantic is associated with the leftovers of ex 92
Quoting 94. Gearsts:




Boring fish storms :\\\\\
What do the Models see with 93L, that the NHC does Not?.........................
100. MahFL
We had a few 80F nights here in Orange Park, I can't recall that happening before, it's normally about 75F.
Good morning all... Quiet in here today.

Looks like some rotation associated with Ex-92L will be moving through our area today.

Looks like whatever is going on above Cuba is getting its act together. I think once the visible satellite picture comes out the circulation will become very evident with a naked swirl with convection shunted off to the east of the center. Might be an invest soon (ex92???).
looks like alittle swirl in the Florida Straits
Lol, love it when our bloggers' calls are confirmed by the pros.

Quoting 104. GeoffreyWPB:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave is located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and
conditions are forecast to be favorable for a tropical depression
to form this weekend or early next week. This disturbance is
expected to move toward the west-northwest and then northwest over
the central Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

2. Cloudiness and showers located just north of the northern Leeward
Islands are spreading west-northwestward with no signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to be
conducive for significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

3. A small area of disturbed weather associated with a weak low
has formed between Cuba and the western Bahamas. This activity is
expected to spread westward across southern Florida and the Florida
Keys later today and Saturday. Upper-level winds are not favorable
for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
what i notice this morning the NHC in the 8.am TWO never mentioned the direction 94L is moving. All it said was that it expected to move WNW and then NW. I believe 94L will continue west for sometime and pose a threat to the lesser antilles.
110. beell
Quoting 109. stoormfury:

what i notice this morning the NHC in the 8.am TWO never mentioned the direction 94L is moving. All it said was that it expected to move WNW and then NW. I believe 94L will continue west for sometime and pose a threat to the lesser antilles.


You could try reading it again.
:)
111. VR46L
Quoting 97. CaribBoy:



Boring fish storms :\\\\\


I think you deserve the title "The Most Honest Wistcaster "
92s comeback good to see the early birds found the fly.
The Florida Straits and GOM look rather hostile with an abundance of dry air.
nhc already got a floater for the keys system. going to be a windy day

Invest
AL, 93, 2016090818, , BEST, 0, 177N, 585W, 20, 1014, DB
AL, 93, 2016090900, , BEST, 0, 179N, 600W, 20, 1014, DB
AL, 93, 2016090906, , BEST, 0, 183N, 612W, 20, 1014, DB
AL, 93, 2016090912, , BEST, 0, 185N, 625W, 20, 1014, DB

could someone show me where in the 8AM TWO where 94L is moving west.
beell i think i have 20/20 vision.
Quoting 118. stoormfury:

could someone show me where in the 8AM TWO where 94L is moving west.
beell i think i have 20/20 vision.


3. A small area of disturbed weather associated with a weak low
has formed between Cuba and the western Bahamas. This activity is
expected to spread westward across southern Florida and the Florida
Keys later today and Saturday
. Upper-level winds are not favorable
for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Quoting 82. unclenoon:

Bob, you can't tell me if my golf game tomorrow will be rained out. But you climate change computer model geniuses can blame the Louisiana floods on me and my buddies driving our cars to the course .


You're learning. ;-)






1. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave is located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles.
Quoting 69. Barkeep1967:


Al Gore I a big time stock holder in DuPont technologies who stands to make boatloads of money off alternative energy. It goes both ways 
Changing data if you have sufficient evidence yes in this case however there can not possibly be concrete evidence the thermometers said what they said. This is like changing a home run to a foul ball in the 1901 World Series because somebody claimed it was foul . 
I am one of the few in the middle and understand both sides tough spot to be in at times being disliked by everybody for not 100% agreeing with anybody 

With all due respect, I have to point out that that post is trivial and irrelevant rubbish.

1. Al Gore (or his lifestyle, politics, or investments) have zero to do with Climate Science. He talks about the science, yes, but he neither does the science nor directs those who do.

2. Your baseball analogy is likewise nonsense for a variety of valid reasons, starting with the fact that even if we assume no bias in any thermometer ever, there are still the rather important matters of the time of observation of those temperature readings and the exact place. Many times in the past temperatures reported were from the middle of a city -where it might be more than a bit warmer than the outlying regions where temperatures are now widely measured. The idea is to compare like to like if one wants to discern a trend. Likewise, comparing 10 am temperature from fifty years ago to 3 pm temperatures today isn't likely to yield any useful information without adjustments in a majority of cases.

3. Who agrees with whom about what is irrelevant without the data. Claims made in blogs are of little to no importance and don't represent the state of the science. That said, false equivalency leaves me cold.
Quoting 82. unclenoon:

Bob, you can't tell me if my golf game tomorrow will be rained out. But you climate change computer model geniuses can blame the Louisiana floods on me and my buddies driving our cars to the course .

When your golf game becomes so bad that it takes years to play over entire hemispheres, your analogy will be apt. Until then...not really relevant.
Quoting 112. islander101010:

92s comeback good to see the early birds found the fly.


that is not 92L in the keys that is a new invest
Quoting 116. Skyepony:


Invest

Trying to wiggle its way into eastern GOM.
Quoting 127. Barefootontherocks:

Trying to wiggle its way into eastern GOM.

Aren't we all? I mean deep down.

It could be interesting if/when it makes it to the GOM.
129. beell
Quoting 121. daddyjames:



3. A small area of disturbed weather associated with a weak low
has formed between Cuba and the western Bahamas. This activity is
expected to spread westward across southern Florida and the Florida
Keys later today and Saturday
. Upper-level winds are not favorable
for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent




Quoting 118. stoormfury:

could someone show me where in the 8AM TWO where 94L is moving west.
beell i think i have 20/20 vision.


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave
is located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and
conditions are forecast to be favorable for a tropical depression
to form this weekend or early next week. This disturbance is
expected to move toward the west-northwest and then northwest over
the central Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

94L is mid-Atlantic.
Quoting 5. Xulonn:

Ambushed yet again by a new Henson/Masters blog - I'm reposting this from the very end of the last blog.

I've been thinking about weather vs climate, and science vs denial while we are in a lull between tropical systems.

I am no longer shocked by the fact that some supposedly "weather literate" regulars here don't know the difference between climate and weather. They continue to look foolish when they regurgitate climate myths such as ""scientists can't even predict the weather next week - how can they predict the climate years from now".

In the real world, climate models - which try to estimate future averages - are quite accurate over recent decades, and are being refined as time goes by. (LINK)

Also, the link between hurricane intensity and global warming is not linear and simple, and actual climate scientists expect weaker hurricanes to not be affected much, but many strong hurricanes may be likely to be even stronger. Also, RI events are more likely to occur as ocean temps rise, and the oceans are definitely getting warmer - but not uniformly warmer. (LINK)

Even Hermine reminds us that had she been over water one or two more days, a brutal "wind and high surge monster" rather than a "moderate surge and rain maker" might have slammed into Florida.

It is the potential for increasing RI events - like Joaquin last year - that worry me. And I think that is part of why many of us watch tropical waves and invests like 93L even when they are de-listed. We don't really know when hurricane are going to quickly turn into monsters.

However, rather than accuse meteorologists and the NHC of incompetence, I am thankful for their dedication and service. I know that they do their very best to anticipate the development of storms, as well as try to figure out when to drop or minimize warnings. Many laypersons seem to be extremely ignorant of the concepts of likelihoods and probabilities and still insist on the impossible standard of 100% accuracy when such a goal is patently unattainable.

If the NHC experts under-estimate a dangerous storm, they are castigated and accused of incompetence. And if they over-estimate a storm which ends up having little impact, they are accused of "crying wolf". But even without the crying wolf part, aggressive forecasting and warnings can lead to complacency and the ignoring of future warnings until it is too late to get out of harm's way.


Sadly, I can only upvote this once.
Quoting 126. thetwilightzone:



that is not 92L in the keys that is a new invest


How is that not ex-92L?
Quoting 128. Misanthroptimist:


Aren't we all? I mean deep down.

It could be interesting if/when it makes it to the GOM.
Lol. "Not I," said the little red hen who prefers the Pacific. And, yes, could be and IF. Per the (add: 700 cdt CIMSS) shear maps posted earlier, shear looks low at eastern end, and decreasing.

ADD 0912 cdt

134. beell


I think someone is getting bored and started a game of tic tac toe :)
Quoting 131. ParanoidAndroid:



How is that not ex-92L?


It's not ex 92L. It's a new system the nhc is watching. Ex 92 dided in the Caribean sea and dissipated
Quoting 136. thetwilightzone:



It's not ex 92L. It's a new system the nhc is watching. Ex 92 dided in the Caribean sea and dissipated


I see what you're saying, it's not called 92L. But it's the same wave/energy isn't it?
Quoting 120. GeoffreyWPB:




-Potential -Hermine alert #2... 92L's remnants have always consistently shown signs of Likely development & further organisation. It certainly bears closer monitoring as it nears the Yucatan & GOM. Time will tell...
God Bless!
Quoting 82. unclenoon:

Bob, you can't tell me if my golf game tomorrow will be rained out. But you climate change computer model geniuses can blame the Louisiana floods on me and my buddies driving our cars to the course .


Right on...
142. beell
Close to (edit) 25 knots of WSW 850-200 mb shear at Key West this morning.

The Atlantic is percolating.

144. ariot
The topic of the blog is important, and as someone who worked outdoors, often at night, for a bit more than 20 years, I have my own anecdotal observations that are in line with the science.

There isn't much worse than a hot night when you're out in it. Mentally, I think we're OK with the heat and humidity during the day, knowing that the night offers relief. When that relief doesn't come, people get worn out and can't focus. It takes its toll pretty quick.
Quoting 138. NatureIsle:



-Potential -Hermine alert #2... 92L's remnants have always consistently shown signs of Likely development & further organisation. It certainly bears closer monitoring as it nears the Yucatan & GOM. Time will tell...
God Bless!


It is looking quite blobby this morning.
93 seems to want to follow ex 92s pouch into the gulf bamms
Quoting 144. ariot:

The topic of the blog is important, and as someone who worked outdoors, often at night, for a bit more than 20 years, I have my own anecdotal observations that are in line with the science.

There isn't much worse than a hot night when you're out in it. Mentally, I think we're OK with the heat and humidity during the day, knowing that the night offers relief. When that relief doesn't come, people get worn out and can't focus. It takes its toll pretty quick.


On the bright side, if you live near the beach, go for a swim after work. Really takes the edge off a long day.
148. Ed22
Quoting 138. NatureIsle:



-Potential -Hermine alert #2... 92L's remnants have always consistently shown signs of Likely development & further organisation. It certainly bears closer monitoring as it nears the Yucatan & GOM. Time will tell...
God Bless!
Are they going re-invest it as 92L or they tag it as 95L. It looks pretty robust this morning, maybe the NHC will up their percentage to 30%/40% later this evening.
149. Ed22
Quoting 105. ChillinInTheKeys:


it look to have a weak closed low at the moment, just south of the Andros island in the Bahamas.
150. wpb
not favorable
for additional development.its september what is causing this?
Quoting 142. beell:

Close to (edit) 25 knots of WSW 850-200 mb shear at Key West this morning.


How would it not be 35, Vectorman? Balloons rule! Sats not as accurate.

Steel, were I in your shoes, I'd be a bear.
@134- that looks like some pretty weak coffee you're drinking there....
154. Ed22
Quoting 150. wpb:

not favorable
for additional development.its september what is causing this?
Nearing the peak of the season, although wind-shear is moderate at the moment i don't think it will prevent it from developing; wind-shear around 20 to 30 knts.
155. wpb

not favorable
for additional development.its september what is causing this?
Quoting 151. hurricanehanna:




Here we are at the peak of hurricane season and a feature that close to Florida and most are just so complacent. If this was 2005 people would be loosing there minds seeing that blob so close to Florida. We all know better now as nothing will form or rapidly intensify, but in the back of our minds we have concern from the past.
Quoting 67. BaltimoreBrian:
New Caledonia is the most beautiful place I've ever been!
"In 1849, the crew of the American ship Cutter was killed and eaten by the Pouma clan. Cannibalism was widespread throughout New Caledonia" [Wikipedia]

I hope for your sake, Brian, that those customs have been left behind.

Quoting 151. hurricanehanna:




The blob is trying to hide the LLC.
Introducing Invest Area Felicia. Clutching to Hermine's coat tails she's lean, mean, and she's anorexic. Must be careful, she comes from the west side but is thankfully within dry conditions and heavier shear.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Coming into view better on the Miami Long Range now...



93L is a disappointment
Quoting 104. GeoffreyWPB:




:((
O845 (cdt) visible sat image of the entity near Cuba/The Bahamas/Florida, as yet unidentified by NWS nomenclature. A little spin getting sheared?


The official word from today's 0800 edt NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, Dr. Avila:
"A small area of disturbed weather associated with a weak low
has formed between Cuba and the western Bahamas. This activity is
expected to spread westward across southern Florida and the Florida
Keys later today and Saturday. Upper-level winds are not favorable
for additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent"


$$
Forecaster Avila

Sounds like what SPC might call "non-zero" tornado chances.
Quoting 109. stoormfury:

what i notice this morning the NHC in the 8.am TWO never mentioned the direction 94L is moving. All it said was that it expected to move WNW and then NW. I believe 94L will continue west for sometime and pose a threat to the lesser antilles.


I hate the fish storms.
Quoting 77. Klipperweather:

About how much to blame increase of greenhouse gases and how much to blame growth of urbanization for low temperatures increasing more than high temperatures: I think the growth of urbanization has a lot to do with this, on a nationwide scale. The urban heat island effect is nonlinear, in a direction towards logarhythmic. Growth of moderately small towns, and population density increases where only a few people per square mile live, have an effect.

The increase of average house size (and household energy consumption) in the increasingly sprawling suburbs has also had an effect, and at night when there is often no significant convection this blows downwind quite a ways. I have noticed low temperatures at Philadelphia International Airport increasing and late-night and early-morning relative humidities decreasing after the 1970s, and I think the large number of energy-hungry "mcmansions" popping up outside the Wash-DC and Baltimore beltways and in NW Delaware and along and shortly W/NW of PA 202 are a significant factor here. I have noticed low temperatures increasing and late-night / early-morning relative humidities decreasing after the late 1970s at all stations (except possibly Mt. Pocono, which I did not pay attention to) reported continuously since then in easily-accessible reports by the Philadelphia / Mt. Holly National Weather Service forecast office.


The problem is with the data IMHO. I feel that the change in minima is more representative of the actual change. If you look at the progression we've made, all of the changes have been to make the present cooler. Initially, most temperature data was taken on rooftops of tall buildings in downtown city cores. Even in the rural areas, crudely constructed structures housed mercury thermometers. Sometimes these structures were placed as low as just a couple feet off the ground - instead of the now-mandated 2m/7ft requirement. I saw a photo of a farm in Nebraska or the Dakotas from the 1930s, and the Stevenson Screen was maybe 2 feet off the ground. Totally absurd! At that height, you aren't even measuring air temperature. More like a hybrid air & surface temperature. In Cleveland, one of the Monthly Weather Reviews notes that the temperatures from 1871-1874 were taken in a window sill! Or take a look at Baltimore, MD. The official records were kept at the Custom House rooftop until 1950, and records were maintained until fairly recently. They stopped recording temperatures there because the readings were coming in like 10 degrees warmer than BWI! Yet, these are the official ThreadEx records up until 1950 and the climate is warming so much that even BWI is beating them out. In the 1930s and 40s, a lot of these stations were moved to airports. But many were still taken on rootops - Cleveland's records, for instance, were taken on top the terminal building at least until the 1960s or 70s. Notice a lot of the high temperature records there were in the 40s and 50s. Wonder why? Even in the late 80s to mid 90s, the warm period then was aided by the HO-83 thermometer on the newly installed ASOS which was swapped out for the HO-1088 due to a warm bias of 1-2F, as widely reported in the scientific literature. No correction was ever performed for any of these obvious biases.

Yet, we're still obliterating all records. It's insane. It's a lot easier to register temperatures too hot, than too cold. Today's system is by far the best ever, especially with US CRN sites. Like Julian Assange said of the media's infatuation with HRC, you deniers have erected a DEMON by calling into question temperature records. And that demon will wrap a noose around all of our necks.

I posted the temps at Lansing earlier in this thread. In the early 1860s, the yearly mean was pretty consistently around 42-44F range. Not one year, but several. You'd have to go up to Sault Ste. Marie to find temps like that nowadays. Today, it's rare to have a year much below 48. We're to the point that one out of every 2 or 3 years is now in the 50-52 range. And it's not just Lansing, Detroit shows temps down to around 45F early in the record, Flint has years down near 43F. Cleveland has years as low as 44-45F. Sure some of this can be explained away by UHI, but these temps are not even remotely comparable to rural temps today... This is 8-10 degrees of global warming, NOT the 1-2 degrees widely reported. I'm not saying globally there hasn't been 1-2 degrees of warming, but in the US the warming has been MUCH, MUCH greater. So much so, if you were to transport somebody from 1850 to the present to the same geographic location, they would probably believe you had sent them hundreds of miles south.

I look at the old MWRs and in the 1800s, it was not uncommon at all to have light frosts in July in Ohio (or killing freezes in June/late August). Today, it's pretty rare to get below 50 degrees. Yet, even with the limited number of sites back then, there were almost always a few reports in the mid to upper 30s. Today, people freak out if there's a few flurries in May. Well look at the snowstorm from late May 1883, when over a foot of snow fell in NW Ohio. Or look at 1816, when there was heavy snowfalls well into June. Sure, it may have been aided by volcanic activity but it doesn't explain the whole anomaly. Also, look at phenological records. Bare trees into May, when now they would be fully leafed. Hell, there were leaves on trees in March during the 2012 heat storm. I guess so far the climate change has probably helped agriculture, but I fear another 5-7 degrees of warming in the continental US will tip us over the edge rendering large tracts of lands incapable of being farmed.
Quoting 152. Barefootontherocks:

How would it not be 35, Vectorman? Balloons rule! Sats not as accurate.

Steel, were I in your shoes, I'd be a bear.
Then again, maybe I just can't read a shear map! Lpl. Right at the Keys, 25.
Quoting 162. CaribBoy:



93L is a disappointment
CaribBoy which island are you on again?
Quoting 117. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 93, 2016090818, , BEST, 0, 177N, 585W, 20, 1014, DB
AL, 93, 2016090900, , BEST, 0, 179N, 600W, 20, 1014, DB
AL, 93, 2016090906, , BEST, 0, 183N, 612W, 20, 1014, DB
AL, 93, 2016090912, , BEST, 0, 185N, 625W, 20, 1014, DB




93L is kidding me right? :\
Huge Wave coming Africa
NWS Melbourne...

Cape wind profilers, again, show a deep, albeit weak, onshore wind
profile from near the surface through 10.0 Kft. Deep inverted
troughing continues to exist between the western Bahamas and Florida
Straits with associated convection. The surface reflection
associated with this troughing is forecast to still push slowly
westward through late day with its inherited cluster of showers and
storms.
ENE/E winds will prevail across ECFL today with speeds
approaching 15 mph in the afternoon and some higher gusts likely.
High pressure ridging, east-west oriented, will continue to hang out
across north FL through the period.
Quoting 169. Tornado6042008X:

CaribBoy which island are you on again?


On St Barts
Quoting 171. bigwes6844:

Huge Wave coming Africa



Fish :(
12z NAM hinting at a little development once it's in the Gulf.

Quoting 158. ChillinInTheKeys:



The blob is trying to hide the LLC.


Uhm guys? Where did this come from? I look on NHC and suddenly, oh hey! Look at this. Only 10% though.
93L perfectly explains why I hate small systems !
Not gonna be surprised if we get another crayon out by tomorrow off Africa. Mite see 4 X's by the peak of the season.
Quoting 171. bigwes6844:

Huge Wave coming Africa



Quoting 162. CaribBoy:



93L is a disappointment

Isn't that at least light rain? Be happy for small gifts.
Quoting 181. SunnyDaysFla:


Isn't that at least light rain? Be happy for small gifts.


Hopefully more showers will develop this afternoon.
Thunder has been very rare this year. Strange!!
Quoting 161. ChillinInTheKeys:

Coming into view better on the Miami Long Range now...




If it were not for the strong upper level winds blowing the thunderstorms off to the SE, this system would probably be a strong Tropical Storm at the very least with warnings up for all of the Florida Keys. There must have been very little in the way of any wind shear in this area about this same time back in September of 1935.
Huge pulse coming through


:\
Latest AOI by Cuba/South Florida reminds me of a certain 99L. It hasn't any real model support though.

94L coming along nicely - should become an OTS hurricane. Wouldn't rule out a run at major status once it gets into the subtropics, similar to Gaston.
Quoting 161. ChillinInTheKeys:

Coming into view better on the Miami Long Range now...




Looks like the eye wall is about to slam into the lower Keys, ha ha. Can always rely on good'ol wind shear to mess things up!
Quoting 185. HurriHistory:



If it were not for the strong upper level winds blowing the thunderstorms off to the SE, this system would probably be a strong Tropical Storm at the very least with warnings up for all of the Florida Keys. There must have been very little in the way of any wind shear in this area about this same time back in September of 1935.


Yes I imagine as it did develop quite quickly:

191. Ed22
Quoting 187. CaribBoy:



:\
93L is coming on nicely, 20%/30 by afternoon.
192. beell
Quoting 152. Barefootontherocks:

How would it not be 35, Vectorman? Balloons rule! Sats not as accurate.

Steel, were I in your shoes, I'd be a bear.


It would be 35 only if the upper/lower environmental winds were in exact opposite directions, eg. northeast/southwest.

Always...Bears watching in Ernest.




Hmmm that little low down south is pretty potent, in the last hour the wind has really picked up here in Miami out of the east. Even got the trees rustling O_o
Quoting 170. CaribBoy:



93L is kidding me right? :\


You hurt its feelings.
Quoting 194. PancakeState:



You hurt its feelings.


93L better dive South now.
should 94L continue moving west for sometime and then make the projected WNW/ NW turn after 45W, then the whole island chain of the lesser antilles will be impacted
Quoting 197. stoormfury:

should 94L continue moving west for sometime and then make the projected WNW/ NW turn after 45W, then the whole island chain of the lesser antilles will be impacted


Hopefully
Quoting 196. Patrap:









What's thatcha say about cv seeds? ;)
Personally I think the NHC is underestimating the disturbance/invest by the Florid Keys. If you look at the cloud tops of the thunderstorms in the eastern gulf, they are not being sheared away, they are just drifting/stationary. This invest which is currently getting sheared is moving into the eastern gulf where those thunderstorms seem to have no problem with shear. No model support?? Good grief, look at the satellite loops of the environment the invest is moving into. What are they feeding those models anyway? Two mornings in a row the posters on this blog spotted an invest before the NHC whipped out their yellow crayon. In my opinion the NHC has become way too dependent on model support and not enough on monitoring real-time observations/data such as satellite imagery. I also think invest 93 has a higher probability too compared to the NHC opinions.
Quoting 192. beell:



It would be 35 only if the upper/lower environmental winds were in exact opposite directions, eg. northeast/southwest.

Always...Bears watching in Ernest.






"Some U.S. cities set records for their longest stretches above a certain temperature..."

As a working climate scientist myself (yes, it's a cliche phrase) I find it rather insulting that a blog of usually high intelligence would use a phrase like this. It's statements like this that just give climate deniers more fodder. All this phrase says is 'we can bend the data to say anything we want no matter what it actually says'. If you don't have something precise to say, then don't say it at all. You just make things worse otherwise.
Quoting 200. dartboardmodel:






It's being sheared.....
204. vis0
Good; AM, PM &zzZM.

Hey look D.C.-ites wave to yer east its remnant s of HERMINE...hey not like that waving involves more fingers

i see we have a pulsing blip near keys, wanna-be FIONA and a HERMINE like biggams but 40 degrees to the east

WHO WILL BE TODAYS "WINNA" on TROPICAL TANACITY (gameshow music in bkgnd)

Lets observe
205. beell
Quoting 185. HurriHistory:



If it were not for the strong upper level winds blowing the thunderstorms off to the SE, this system would probably be a strong Tropical Storm at the very least with warnings up for all of the Florida Keys. There must have been very little in the way of any wind shear in this area about this same time back in September of 1935.

Per 20th Century Reanalysis, the magnitude of 850-200 mb bulk wind difference off the SE coast of Florida on September 9, 1935 at 12Z appeared to be around 10-15 kt.



NOW...
GUSTY BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES OFF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
Shear is alot better once it enters the gulf.This will likely take a path similar to Hermine.
93L becoming embiggened

210. Ed22
Quoting 203. isothunder67:





It's being sheared.....
It looks better than colin did though, furthermore its very organized than colin ever did.
Quoting 199. GatorWX:



What's thatcha say about cv seeds? ;)


Dey b tenacious.

🚀⛽🅿🚦🚧
Quoting 203. isothunder67:





It's being sheared.....

Umm... I know that, that's why I said "This invest which is currently getting sheared is moving into the eastern gulf where those thunderstorms seem to have no problem with shear."
Quoting 137. RobertWC:

New Report: ‘Blowtorch’-Like Ocean Warming Advances Killer Seas, Shifts El Nino, Heats Hydrates
Tampering can be dangerous. Nature can be vengeful. We should have a great deal of respect for the planet on which we live. — Carl-Gustaf Rossby

Link
Hurricane Ian on the GFS
But as the [IUCN] study points out, 90% of the extra heat that our greenhouse gases trap is actually absorbed by the oceans. That means that the upper few meters of the sea have been steadily warming more than a tenth of a degree celsius per decade, a figure that’s accelerating. When you think of the volume of water that represents, and then try to imagine the energy necessary to raise its temperature, you get an idea of the blowtorch that our civilization has become. — Bill McKibben

The scale of ocean warming is truly staggering with the numbers so large that it is difficult for most people to comprehend. — from the IUCN report Explaining Ocean Warming: Causes, scale, effects and consequences
Quoting 209. Grothar:

93L becoming embiggened




Forget RI...we're going with RE - Rapid Embiggenation
Quoting 215. HurricaneFan:

Hurricane Ian on the GFS



Fish year :(
Quoting 213. dartboardmodel:


Umm... I know that, that's why I said "This invest which is currently getting sheared is moving into the eastern gulf where those thunderstorms seem to have no problem with shear
If it finds that sweet spot with 5-15 knot shear, things could get plenty interesting for some folks.
221. Ed22
Quoting 213. dartboardmodel:


Umm... I know that, that's why I said "This invest which is currently getting sheared is moving into the eastern gulf where those thunderstorms seem to have no problem with shear."
I think wind-shear will decrease a little this evening allowing this disturbance to organized some more. 30%/40% for this tropical disturbance this afternoon.
Miami Nexrad

Base Radial Velocity

223. Ed22
Quoting 218. HTownJitters:



Forget RI...we're going with RE - Rapid Embiggenation
93L is under good wind-shear now around 10 to 20 knts.
Oh, Doc!!!!
We haven't seen a bird all morning.
Quoting 69. Barkeep1967:
[re: changing temperature record data]... This is like changing a home run to a foul ball in the 1901 World Series because somebody claimed it was foul...
That is an absolute crock of b.s. No original records are "changed." If a data point is obviously wrong, it is corrected if there is a valid way to do so, and if not, the data point is eliminated from the working dataset - but not from the original dataset.

Error correction of measured and recorded surface temperatures is done openly and transparently by scientists and statisticians adhering to rigorous standards. The resulting updated "working" data series are robust and documented. Even so, global warming trends based on surface temperature data change very little when original data with errors is compared to carefully corrected data. LINK

The original recorded data and various corrected datasets are available to you and anyone else in the world who cares to examine them. Criticisms of global surface temperature datasets by denialists and their fossil fuel industry backers are based on b.s. And strangely, those same people refuse to criticize the work of John Christy and Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama who use mathematical models to "calculate" tropospheric (not surface) temperatures. Dr. Christy is up to version 6 of the software used to derive tropospheric temperatures from satellite microwave soundings - and unlike the many scientists working with surface temperatures, he refuses to publish the source code or document the methods that his computer models use.


93L is really the epitome of tropical disapointment :\

Look where it is, Look where I am :\\
Will have to wait till october

92E, soon-to-be Orlene.
92L is officially back.

This is the third separate time it has been an invest.
Quoting 228. CaribBoy:

Will have to wait till october


of what year?
Quoting 223. Ed22:

93L is under good wind-shear now around 10 to 20 knts.


Yes for certain...rather than intensifying it is just getting the clouds blown off which makes it look bigger...
A BIT OVERDUE...- BUT GLAD TO SEE THAT BETTER JUDGEMENT FINALLY PREVAILED WITH THE NHC RE:-THE EVENTUAL RE-DESIGNATION OF 92L.
The Gulf states may have to closely watch its forecast track and intensity predictions....

God Bless!

Waters around Hawaii are now as warm or even a bit warmer than they were during last year's El Nino. Lots of instability in the ITCZ south of the islands. Only the wind shear is keeping the lid on for now.
Quoting 231. Dakster:



of what year?


I don't know. :(
Quoting 217. CaribBoy:



You are in St Barth? Because you show a lot of st barth's website...
Quoting 202. seymour47:

"Some U.S. cities set records for their longest stretches above a certain temperature..."

As a working climate scientist myself (yes, it's a cliche phrase) I find it rather insulting that a blog of usually high intelligence would use a phrase like this. It's statements like this that just give climate deniers more fodder. All this phrase says is 'we can bend the data to say anything we want no matter what it actually says'. If you don't have something precise to say, then don't say it at all. You just make things worse otherwise.

Denialists find fodder in everything, no matter the precision of the data or the breadth and depth of the data. And if they can't find anything, they'll just make something up.

That said, I agree that that was phrased awkwardly...but I can't think of any reasonably concise way to get that point across.
Quoting 236. zicoille:


You are in St Barth? Because you show a lot of st barth's website...


I am.
Quoting 211. Patrap:



Dey b tenacious.

🚀⛽🅿🚦🚧


Indeed, Thus far all Cape Verde designated invests have been utterly Resilient & tenacious...however, hands-down -Hermine took the Crown for the most drawn-out course for Tropical Cyclone development.

This is now especially the time of year to keep our eyes in the islands fixed to the East. Significant wave activity is expected in the next few weeks.

KEEP SAFE EVERYONE!
& GOD Bless!
Quoting 224. Grothar:

Oh, Doc!!!!


New post coming around 2 pm EDT. 92L certainly has a respectable surface circulation! Staying in a high shear environment the next 24 hours while it moves to the west, then shear relaxes a bit:

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/16090912AL9216 _ships.txt

Dr. M.



WU News here, recently there has been a bit of drama about ECMWF forming a TS near France in 120 hours and making it a hurricane in 144 hours, a fully tropical one. We are not sure if this model is correct about this. A warm core is clearly visible on the second image, and on the first image you can see it landfalled a bit earlier. The highest winds at 144 hours from the ECMWF shows 70 mph, which means it was likely 74 mph or more at around 138 hours. That's it.

-WU Drama News
242. ariot
Quoting 147. ParanoidAndroid:



On the bright side, if you live near the beach, go for a swim after work. Really takes the edge off a long day.


That would be something, yes. The Chesapeake bay is like bathwater this summer, and I don't swim much these days. Some of the feeder creeks on the Susquehanna are still cool(ish).

I don't think I could live on the coast, although I spent most of my youth along the Gulf Coast. There's too much risk these days. Hell, I don't even like the fact I'm renting about a mile away from a 100 year floodplain now! ;-)
The next 24 hrs will be quite interesting as the upper low at 28 N 55W which is responsible for turning 94L OTS is showing signs of weakening and moving out of the area.
Almost out of the unfavorable shear.

Quoting 212. Patrap:


Quoting 243. GeoffreyWPB:






Bamm models are worthless. Like to get Docs take here shortly.
248. Ed22
Quoting 245. HaoleboySurfEC:

Almost out of the unfavorable shear.


Low Level Center of 92L is very well defined to me, let see what NHC say in a couple minutes from now.
249. vis0
INTRODUCTION

Since i saw not any words saying the org comment
was a joke nor the reply i figure both are saying science is wrong of showing
that the planet is warming due to man's influence through chemicals being place
in the atmosphere that normally would not be there in the quick rate nor amount
as has occurred since the industrial revolution. Sure the IRev did good things
but if one sees errors in a good thing make the good thing uh GOODER by
correcting the error(s). Here my reply to Qo82 & Qo122.







Quoting 82. unclenoon:

Bob, you
can't tell me if my golf game tomorrow will be rained out. But you climate
change computer model geniuses can blame the Louisiana floods on me and my
buddies driving our cars to the course
.



122.  ChiThom

You're
learning.
;-)

------------------------------------------------- --------

Learning
to be incorrect is a step forward from ignoring ,
congrats.

 As to REAL science, the known actions of
variables as greenhouse gas cause greenhouse affects that is why its called
"greenhouse" gases.

To pinpoint the variables that are
not known is harder.     NOT cause a knowledgeable person in
the field of meteorology or even one observing nature as a hobby does not
understand the variables but 'cause there are so many interactions in becoming
and departing towards existence.  

Lets take wind(s) as
just one example of a variable of weather.  

 You know
what a wind is (DO NOT COUNT that which happens when you stand next to me at a
onion  & beans  eating contest, that's a purely evil -
wind.)

So if you know what a wind is why can
you not tell me when the wind just a foot away from you is going to come towards
you or go away or any of the other millions of
directions?

Now that wind i just mentioned is JUST THE
WIND a foot away from your nose.   ADD to that a foot more (of
winds), a yard more a mile more,  a block more,  an acre more (of winds), the
distance from your missed tea shot to the hole more (see what i did), a mile
more, a state more, a continent more, a ocean more, a planet more of wind
directions forming and decaying.     That is what models are
trying to figure out in adding to the KNOWN "what wind is" yet how its variable
(its motion(s)/counter motions) will act next. AND THAT WAS ONLY AS TO
WIND
. not including how wind has to go around fat me nor around the
hundreds of iPODs TWI has.

 
Now go place the golf ball 20 feet
away from the 19th hole ...oh wait that's TWI piehole snorkeling no 19th
hole...
 

 (game IDEA:: golf with a
floating snorkel like hole in the pond???  a line of pho-leaves leads to the
hole and one uses water waiters to go into shallow pond and a special half
putter (only 10 inches long to putt)

 
...so 20 feet
from the 18th hole. Now you know what a golf club is, you now what a golf ball
is you have measured the green's angles, NOWw predict for me how well you will
do...What!? you can say what you THINK can happen within a certain
percentage but cannot predict exactly what WILL happen as to an action within a
20 foot area??? (not being nasty to you just pouring a teaspoon of your own
"medicine". yeechy isn't it.


MY PREDICTION is 2
shots to
make it in at birdee...shhh here's the shot quiet  please ladies stop talking of Grothars selfOHS!...  (sound of

club snapping in two
) OH!!! not even the best compu'rs predicted that
unclenoon was going to break his club over his thigh and caddy
ChiThom kick the ball ...that goes in!!! ChiThom WINS the
Now-u-Know invitational ChiThom is being carried towards the
pond by "gofers"...is that a good thing???


see what i did i
used
your own words and made an luvly knot in your shoe laces. 
Now go
help yourself to a sick planet or help all enjoy a healthy planet LETS MAKE THE
PLANET GOOD AGAIN, INjoy.
I think it's about to become a busy weekend on the blog. 92L with possibly 4-7 days over the GOM. 94L track far from set in stone. Looks interesting.
Quoting 249. vis0:

INTRODUCTION

Since i saw not any words saying the org comment
was a joke nor the reply i figure both are saying science is wrong of showing
that the planet is warming due to man's influence through chemicals being place
in the atmosphere that normally would not be there in the quick rate nor amount
as has occurred since the industrial revolution. Sure the IRev did good things
but if one sees errors in a good thing make the good thing uh GOODER by
correcting the error(s). Here my reply to Qo82 & Qo122.







Quoting 82. unclenoon:

Bob, you
can't tell me if my golf game tomorrow will be rained out. But you climate
change computer model geniuses can blame the Louisiana floods on me and my
buddies driving our cars to the course
.



122.  ChiThom

You're
learning.
;-)

------------------------------------------------- --------

Learning
to be incorrect is a step forward from ignoring ,
congrats.

 As to REAL science, the known actions of
variables as greenhouse gas cause greenhouse affects that is why its called
"greenhouse" gases.

To pinpoint the variables that are
not known is harder.     NOT cause a knowledgeable person in
the field of meteorology or even one observing nature as a hobby does not
understand the variables but 'cause there are so many interactions in becoming
and departing towards existence.  

Lets take wind(s) as
just one example of a variable of weather.  

 You know
what a wind is (DO NOT COUNT that which happens when you stand next to me at a
onion  & beans  eating contest, that's a purely evil -
wind.)

So if you know what a wind is why can
you not tell me when the wind just a foot away from you is going to come towards
you or go away or any of the other millions of
directions?

Now that wind i just mentioned is JUST THE
WIND a foot away from your nose.   ADD to that a foot more (of
winds), a yard more a mile more,  a block more,  an acre more (of winds), the
distance from your missed tea shot to the hole more (see what i did), a mile
more, a state more, a continent more, a ocean more, a planet more of wind
directions forming and decaying.     That is what models are
trying to figure out in adding to the KNOWN "what wind is" yet how its variable
(its motion(s)/counter motions) will act next. AND THAT WAS ONLY AS TO
WIND
. not including how wind has to go around fat me nor around the
hundreds of iPODs TWI has.

 
Now go place the golf ball 20 feet
away from the 19th hole ...oh wait that's TWI piehole snorkeling no 19th
hole...
 

 (game IDEA:: golf with a
floating snorkel like hole in the pond???  a line of pho-leaves leads to the
hole and one uses water waiters to go into shallow pond and a special half
putter (only 10 inches long to putt)

 
...so 20 feet
from the 18th hole. Now you know what a golf club is, you now what a golf ball
is you have measured the green's angles, NOWw predict for me how well you will
do...What!? you can say what you THINK can happen within a certain
percentage but cannot predict exactly what WILL happen as to an action within a
20 foot area??? (not being nasty to you just pouring a teaspoon of your own
"medicine". yeechy isn't it.


MY PREDICTION is 2
shots to
make it in at birdee...shhh here's the shot quiet  please ladies stop talking of Grothars selfOHS!...  (sound of

club snapping in two
) OH!!! not even the best compu'rs predicted that
unclenoon was going to break his club over his thigh and caddy
ChiThom kick the ball ...that goes in!!! ChiThom WINS the
Now-u-Know invitational ChiThom is being carried towards the
pond by "gofers"...is that a good thing???


see what i did i
used
your own words and made an luvly knot in your shoe laces. 
Now go
help yourself to a sick planet or help all enjoy a healthy planet LETS MAKE THE
PLANET GOOD AGAIN, INjoy.



Poof...
Quoting 249. vis0:

INTRODUCTION

Since i saw not any words saying the org comment
was a joke nor the reply i figure both are saying science is wrong of showing
that the planet is warming due to man's influence through chemicals being place
in the atmosphere that normally would not be there in the quick rate nor amount
as has occurred since the industrial revolution. Sure the IRev did good things
but if one sees errors in a good thing make the good thing uh GOODER by
correcting the error(s). Here my reply to Qo82 & Qo122.







Quoting 82. unclenoon:

Bob, you
can't tell me if my golf game tomorrow will be rained out. But you climate
change computer model geniuses can blame the Louisiana floods on me and my
buddies driving our cars to the course
.



122.  ChiThom

You're
learning.
;-)

------------------------------------------------- --------

Learning
to be incorrect is a step forward from ignoring ,
congrats.

 As to REAL science, the known actions of
variables as greenhouse gas cause greenhouse affects that is why its called
"greenhouse" gases.

To pinpoint the variables that are
not known is harder.     NOT cause a knowledgeable person in
the field of meteorology or even one observing nature as a hobby does not
understand the variables but 'cause there are so many interactions in becoming
and departing towards existence.  

Lets take wind(s) as
just one example of a variable of weather.  

 You know
what a wind is (DO NOT COUNT that which happens when you stand next to me at a
onion  & beans  eating contest, that's a purely evil -
wind.)

So if you know what a wind is why can
you not tell me when the wind just a foot away from you is going to come towards
you or go away or any of the other millions of
directions?

Now that wind i just mentioned is JUST THE
WIND a foot away from your nose.   ADD to that a foot more (of
winds), a yard more a mile more,  a block more,  an acre more (of winds), the
distance from your missed tea shot to the hole more (see what i did), a mile
more, a state more, a continent more, a ocean more, a planet more of wind
directions forming and decaying.     That is what models are
trying to figure out in adding to the KNOWN "what wind is" yet how its variable
(its motion(s)/counter motions) will act next. AND THAT WAS ONLY AS TO
WIND
. not including how wind has to go around fat me nor around the
hundreds of iPODs TWI has.

 
Now go place the golf ball 20 feet
away from the 19th hole ...oh wait that's TWI piehole snorkeling no 19th
hole...
 

 (game IDEA:: golf with a
floating snorkel like hole in the pond???  a line of pho-leaves leads to the
hole and one uses water waiters to go into shallow pond and a special half
putter (only 10 inches long to putt)

 
...so 20 feet
from the 18th hole. Now you know what a golf club is, you now what a golf ball
is you have measured the green's angles, NOWw predict for me how well you will
do...What!? you can say what you THINK can happen within a certain
percentage but cannot predict exactly what WILL happen as to an action within a
20 foot area??? (not being nasty to you just pouring a teaspoon of your own
"medicine". yeechy isn't it.


MY PREDICTION is 2
shots to
make it in at birdee...shhh here's the shot quiet  please ladies stop talking of Grothars selfOHS!...  (sound of

club snapping in two
) OH!!! not even the best compu'rs predicted that
unclenoon was going to break his club over his thigh and caddy
ChiThom kick the ball ...that goes in!!! ChiThom WINS the
Now-u-Know invitational ChiThom is being carried towards the
pond by "gofers"...is that a good thing???


see what i did i
used
your own words and made an luvly knot in your shoe laces. 
Now go
help yourself to a sick planet or help all enjoy a healthy planet LETS MAKE THE
PLANET GOOD AGAIN, INjoy.



Poof...
Quoting 225. Grothar:

We haven't seen a bird all morning.


Burt Bacharach in the house.
Who said 92L was dead??
Quoting 254. Grothar:

Who said 92L was dead??


92L. AKA Jason
Quoting 254. Grothar:

Who said 92L was dead??


Taz
92L best chance is to turn north like Hermine to avoid the shear to the west.
258. IDTH
Quoting 254. Grothar:

Who said 92L was dead??

Same people who said 99L was dead.


so, 92L is bound and determined eh ? We'll either need a big pot of coffee or a pitcher of margaritas for the weekend.
Quoting 254. Grothar:

Who said 92L was dead??


The first time for a invest to be moving this slow at 10 mph. It could possibly stack properly. I shouldn't get to excited because it can go poof.
Blowing 25 to 30 knots, sure glad 92L is already 60 miles due south.
Quoting 257. MeteorologistTV:

92L best chance is to turn north like Hermine to avoid the shear to the west.


Current wind shear in the southern and eastern GOM is very favorable. It does have a pretty good spin to it.
92L looks like it means business i still don't see this more than a depression
Quoting 258. IDTH:


Same people who said 99L was dead.


It was deactivated twice by the experts.
anyone have the vorticity stacking maps ? I can't find my link. :)
268. Ed22
Quoting 260. frank727:



The first time for a invest to be moving this slow at 10 mph. It could possibly stack properly. I shouldn't get to excited because it can go poof.
I don't think it will go poof.
Quoting 261. jjjerry1:

Blowing 25 to 30 knots, sure glad 92L is already 60 miles due south.


Buoy reports are showing 25-30mph winds in the keys.
Quoting 260. frank727:



The first time for a invest to be moving this slow at 10 mph. It could possibly stack properly. I shouldn't get to excited because it can go poof.


The last time I got excited was 1983.
271. 7544
Quoting 207. MeteorologistTV:

NOW...
GUSTY BANDS OF SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD INTO MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES OFF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS, IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.


looks like a statement they would post for a td could it make it before it reaches these areas seems like it just sitting there
Quoting 259. hurricanehanna:



so, 92L is bound and determined eh ? We'll either need a big pot of coffee or a pitcher of margaritas for the weekend.
Well, being as it's Friday... margaritas! Appreciate your posting the images. Thank you.

!
Quoting 241. NunoLava1998:




WU News here, recently there has been a bit of drama about ECMWF forming a TS near France in 120 hours and making it a hurricane in 144 hours, a fully tropical one. We are not sure if this model is correct about this. A warm core is clearly visible on the second image, and on the first image you can see it landfalled a bit earlier. The highest winds at 144 hours from the ECMWF shows 70 mph, which means it was likely 74 mph or more at around 138 hours. That's it.

-WU Drama News

If you're referring to the north coast of France, it just looks like an upper level negative tilt in a strong midlatitude frontal system with a good warm sector. Given the strong wind shear and subpar SSTs, a hurricane in that locale is, well, impossible.
Quoting 267. hurricanehanna:

anyone have the vorticity stacking maps ? I can't find my link. :)


850mb vort looks good.

Quoting 258. IDTH:


Same people who said 99L was dead.
I knew 99L would become a significant storm in the gulf..I commented here while it was in the Bahamas that it would likely become a hurricane in the gulf..That system had way to much power to be totaled out by shear.
Quoting 274. Bucsboltsfan:



850mb vort looks good.




Thanks Bucs :)
Quoting 276. hydrus:

I knew 99L would become a significant storm in the gulf..I commented here while it was in the Bahamas that it would likely become a hurricane in the gulf..That system had way to much power to be totaled out by shear.


So you think it will be a hurricane. What path are you seeing?
96 degrees heat index. Fall has arrived! Mississippi coast.
Has he NHC update came out yet
Quoting 243. GeoffreyWPB:




Quoting 251. luvtogolf:



Poof...


As you wish.....




92L packing a punch
Quoting 270. Grothar:



The last time I got excited was 1983.
I was excited quite a few times in 83...i remember it vividly...:)


looks like they pulled out the orange color. update on 92l

3. Satellite wind data indicate that low pressure located in the
Straits of Florida is producing squalls of 30 to 35 mph east of its
center. If the system's thunderstorm activity persists or increases
in organization, it could result in the formation of a tropical
depression later today or Saturday. However, even if a depression
forms, upper-level winds are not favorable for significant
development while the system moves westward into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. This system could produce squalls and gusty winds
in the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
We went orange...

Link
Haven't been on much lately very busy hope everyone is doing well. Invest 92L back from the dead, same location and basically same appearance as 99L. We all know what 99 did when it got into the gulf. Keep an eye on this

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave is located a little more than 1000 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. This system is gradually becoming better
organized, and conditions are forecast to be favorable for a
tropical depression to form this weekend or early next week. This
disturbance is expected to move toward the west-northwest and then
northwest over the central Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

2. Cloudiness and showers located just north of the northern Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico are spreading west-northwestward with no
signs of organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to
be conducive for significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

3. Satellite wind data indicate that low pressure located in the
Straits of Florida is producing squalls of 30 to 35 mph east of its
center. If the system's thunderstorm activity persists or increases
in organization, it could result in the formation of a tropical
depression later today or Saturday. However, even if a depression
forms, upper-level winds are not favorable for significant
development while the system moves westward into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. This system could produce squalls and gusty winds
in the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
290. 7544
Quoting 271. 7544:



looks like a statement they would post for a td could it make it before it reaches these areas seems like it just sitting there



just got my answer lol
Satellite wind data indicate that low pressure located in the
Straits of Florida is producing squalls of 30 to 35 mph east of its
center. If the system's thunderstorm activity persists or increases
in organization, it could result in the formation of a tropical
depression later today or Saturday. However, even if a depression
forms, upper-level winds are not favorable for significant
development while the system moves westward into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. This system could produce squalls and gusty winds
in the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
We have all of the colors from the crayon box...

Quoting 278. Bucsboltsfan:



So you think it will be a hurricane. What path are you seeing?
I was talking about 99L, not 92L...I do not think 92L will be a hurricane, but it will have to be watched for some development when it moves into the gulf. I have seen spin ups out there when conditions are about horrible.
293. IDTH
I feel like history just loves to repeat itself on this blog.
Quoting 270. Grothar:



The last time I got excited was 1983.

August 92'
Just like that we got orange alert
Quoting 291. GeoffreyWPB:

We have all of the colors from the crayon box...




Welcome back 92L...
Mojo and climatology as well as history is in play.

It was 51 years ago tonight Major Hurricane Betsy roared ashore here.

It was my first Major.

Quoting 281. Patrap:




Weak steering.
92L you gotta stay in the eastern gulf to survive.Please stay in eastern gulf and turn north like Hermine.
We need recon into 92L
Quoting 297. Patrap:

Mojo and climatology as well as history is in play.

It was 51 years ago tonight Major Hurricane Betsy roared ashore here.

It was my first Major.




Mine too Pat... Slidell... I was only 4 but I could take you today and show you where every tree fell. After that, we had to take the long way around the lake to get my dad to work at Michoud.
Quoting 301. HurricaneFan:

We need recon into 92L


Not really. The COC is displaced to the NW of convection. It will have a better chance in 18-24 hours when it's moves into a low shear environment.
Quoting 270. Grothar:



The last time I got excited was 1983.


I feel sorry for Mrs. Grothar.
That guy Levi who does the "tropical tidbits" is a grad student at FSU. He said he was still without electricity as of yesterday after Hermine passed through.
My buddy in the middle keys says waves are high and water is almost coming up to his front yard.
Quoting 282. PedleyCA:



As you wish.....


Hey Ped. Got frost warnings for tonight....

You?
Two through the straights in 2 weeks.
I say there will be a third before the end of the season...give or take 50 miles.
Quoting 306. MeteorologistTV:

My buddy in the middle keys says waves are high and water is almost coming up to his front yard.


We've hardly had a 20 MPH gust here at MM24 Lower Keys. Light breeze with gusts. Tide about a foot below normal high tide.
Quoting 309. ChillinInTheKeys:



We've hardly had a 20 MPH gust here at MM24 Lower Keys. Light breeze with gusts. Tide about a foot below normal high tide.

Been a bit breezy here all morning, sun was shining. Suddenly it got overcast and then started raining. Looks to be a band that is going to go across from Miami to Ft Lauderdale.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
312. beell
Quoting 254. Grothar:

Who said 92L was dead??


Not I, said the cat.

588. beell
4:47 PM GMT on September 04, 2016

Just because the GFS does not show obvious development on any random run elected-does not imply it will not develop! It's not a perfect model.

The seed is consistent and can be tracked. Should be enough to hold one's attention for now. Here it is in the western gulf a week from today.



Quoting 309. ChillinInTheKeys:



We've hardly had a 20 MPH gust here at MM24 Lower Keys. Light breeze with gusts. Tide about a foot below normal high tide.
Nope he has gotten gusts close to 30mph.
Quoting 202. seymour47:

"Some U.S. cities set records for their longest stretches above a certain temperature..."

As a working climate scientist myself (yes, it's a cliche phrase) I find it rather insulting that a blog of usually high intelligence would use a phrase like this. It's statements like this that just give climate deniers more fodder. All this phrase says is 'we can bend the data to say anything we want no matter what it actually says'. If you don't have something precise to say, then don't say it at all. You just make things worse otherwise.
To be fair to the blog author...
Before the IBM purchase, when TWCC advertised for a meteorologist to write/co-write this blog, one job requirement was to be able to write a blog understandable at much lower reading level, grade-wise, than you might suspect. Shocked me. I can't recall the exact grade now, but somewhere between 6-10th grade (U.S.version) Apparently, the blog is written to reach a large audience, not just for those with a science background "."
Shear map 1 pm cdt
Quoting 307. Dakster:



Hey Ped. Got frost warnings for tonight....

You?


Not quite yet...77.2F 11:47PDT Below is for Indian Hills, just NNE of me
In regards to global warming and the fight against. Kudos to Costa Rica!

http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/09/09/this-t iny-nation-has-generated-100-of-its-power-without- any-oil/21468926/

Link
318. vis0

Quoting 256. 2manytimes:



Taz

no i think taz/TWI was being in TWI's in free spirit way sarcastic that NHC  called x92L dead ~2 days ago and TWI thought it would revive so he made sure others knew what the NHC was stating. Half a cookie for TWI...i ate the other half (owner's half is 98%, right?)

back to obs ...anyone remember what i said 4-5 days ago?



in viso's mind Grothar replies with:: "7rr-8f86s64tyu38iutrjrhj7t :::: &U^E$^FRREfouijoju23skahadoo  ...   .... yu38iutrjrhj7t  &U^E$^FRR *%7fiuf86mndg biggamzhyu38iutrjrhj7t  &U^E$^FRR e99 86#$1235 368frett4jjfrh"

yep yer correct Grothar.
Quoting 129. beell:




Quoting 118. stoormfury:

could someone show me where in the 8AM TWO where 94L is moving west.
beell i think i have 20/20 vision.


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave
is located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and
conditions are forecast to be favorable for a tropical depression
to form this weekend or early next week. This disturbance is
expected to move toward the west-northwest and then northwest over
the central Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

94L is mid-Atlantic.


Ugh thanks or correcting me. Hard enough to keep track of all the kids I am teaching, much less the invests! Thanks again, beell,