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U.S. deep freeze continues; dangerous air pollution episode in Utah

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:27 PM GMT on January 24, 2013

The January 2013 North American cold wave continued to bring bitter cold to much of Eastern Canada and the Midwest and Northeast U.S. this morning. In the U.S., below-zero temperatures were recorded Thursday morning in twelve states east of the Rockies. The most intense cold was centered near the Minnesota/Ontario border, where Embarrass, Minnesota hit -42°F (-41°C) and Crane Lake, Minnesota bottomed out at -36°F (-38°C). The coldest spot in Canada was in Souix Lookout, Ontario, about 100 miles north of International Falls, where the mercury fell to -40°F (-40°C.) The fun continued on the summit of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire this morning, where a temperature of -26°F (-32°C) combined with a wind of 71 mph to create a remarkable wind chill of -73°F (-58°C). A digression: back in 1986, when I taught weather forecasting at SUNY Brockport in New York, I worked with a meteorologist who used to work on top of Mt. Washington as a weather observer. He said it was standard practice back in the days he worked there to engage in a ritualistic prank whenever a new weather observer joined the staff. On the first day the new observer was there during one of Mt. Washington's classic hurricane-force wind events, he would be sent out with a safety harness and a can of paint to paint the observation platform. The unwitting observer would inch out into the hurricane winds, struggle to pry off the lid of the can of paint, and quickly discover the impossibility of painting during a hurricane--the powerful winds blowing over the top of the paint can would create a powerful Bernoulli Effect, levitating the paint out of the can and hurling all of the paint far downwind. The sheepish newbie weather observer would report back inside and ask, "you really didn't want me to paint the observing platform, did you?" to the sound of uproarious guffaws.


Figure 1. A cold day in New England: cold air flowing off of the New England coast creates thick stratocumulus clouds over the Atlantic Ocean in this true-color MODIS satellite image taken at 12:35 pm EST January 23, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Dangerous air pollution in Utah
The most dangerous weather in the U.S. this week is occurring in the valleys of northern Utah, where clear skies, light winds, and a strong temperature inversion have combined to create a dangerous 6-day long air pollution episode. (A temperature inversion occurs when air temperature increases with altitude, acting as a stable lid preventing atmospheric mixing; inversions are common in mountain valleys when high pressure dominates.) It's been unusually cold during most of January in Northeast Utah, with Salt Lake City on track to have its 3rd coldest January on record. The cold weather has caused people to use their wood burning stoves more than usual, resulting in high emissions of smoke. More than 100 Utah doctors delivered a petition to state lawmakers on Wednesday, demanding that authorities immediately lower highway speed limits, curb industrial activity and make mass transit free for the rest of winter. "We're in a public-health emergency for much of the winter," said Brian Moench, an anesthesiologist and president of Utah Physicians for a Healthy Environment. He estimated that poor air quality contributes to 1,000 to 2,000 premature deaths each year along Utah's Wasatch Front.


Figure 2. View of a smoggy Salt Lake City taken at 2 pm MST January 23, 2013. Webcam image courtesy of University of Utah/TimeScience.

Winds have remained below 6 mph for six straight days in Northern Utah, allowing fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) to build up to unhealthful levels. PM 2.5, also known as particle pollution, is a complex mixture of extremely small dust and soot particles that lodge in the lungs and cause large increases in hospital admissions and excess mortality during severe air pollution episodes like this one. The federal standard for PM 2.5 is 35 micrograms per cubic meter, averaged over 24 hours. In Salt Lake City, fine particle air pollution has been above the federal standard for six consecutive days, with a peak value of 91 micrograms per cubic meter on January 19. In nearby Provo, Utah, the pollution has been much worse, with 24-hour average PM 2.5 levels more than triple the federal standard on Thursday morning, at 131 micrograms per cubic meter. If the PM 2.5 levels go above 150 micrograms per cubic meter, this will be in the "Very Unhealthy" category as defined by EPA. At this pollution level, the entire population is likely to be affected, and health warnings of emergency conditions are issued. Compounding the air pollution woes in Provo are high levels of nitrogen dioxide gas, which peaked at 98 ppb on Tuesday, just below the 100 ppb federal standard. Light winds and a strong temperature inversion will continue today, and freezing rain fell over much of the Salt Lake City area this morning, turning the roads into skating rinks, resulting in dozens of traffic accidents. Fortunately, the forecast for Provo calls for snow and rain this weekend due to a low pressure system, and the rain and winds associated with this low should be able to reduce air pollution levels significantly.


Figure 3. Observed air quality in North Provo, Utah, January 19 - 24, 2013. 24-hour average fine Particulate Matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (also called PM 2.5) levels (black circles, top image) were in excess of the 35 micrograms per cubic meter U.S. standard (orange line) during the entire period, and peaked at 131 micrograms per cubic meter--more than 3 times the Federal standard--Thursday morning. Levels of toxic nitrogen dioxide (yellow dots) peaked at 98 ppb, just below the U.S. standard of 100 ppb, on January 22. Note that during the entire 5-day period pictured here, the wind speed at the surface never rose above 6 mph (lower image, black dots.) Image credit: Utah DEQ.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
913 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

WVZ035-036-039-040-241630-
RALEIGH-FAYETTE-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BECKLEY...OAK HILL...FAYETTEVILLE...
BUCKHANNON...PHILIPPI...BELINGTON
913 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

SNOW SHOWERS...OF VARY INTENSITY...COULD LINGER DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS BARBOUR...UPSHUR...FAYETTE...AND RALEIGH
COUNTIES. SOME LOCAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...OF AN INCH OR
LESS...ARE LIKELY DURING THE 9 O`CLOCK TO NOON PERIOD.

ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO DRIVE SLOWER AND SAFER ON UNTREATED SNOW
COVERED ROADS.

THE LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MIDDAY...WITH
EVEN SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING THROUGH.


$$

KTB
7-DAY for Tampa Bay area..80's next week it seems....
Thanks Doc
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-LOUDOUN-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
938 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

.NOW...
ANY LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES OR PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO
AN END BY 11AM ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC METROPOLITAN AREA.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO PERHAPS
AROUND 20 DEGREES...SO NO MELTING IS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE ROADS
WILL REMAIN SLICK THROUGH THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH...KEEPING WIND CHILLS AROUND 10.

$$
Thanks for the new blog Dr. Masters.

I cant's believe that the gorgeous area of Provo is smoggy. I've spent some time in Provo and it is absolutely beautiful there. The picture of Salt Lake City reminds me of the pictures of Beijing lately.

I do hope they make public transport free and work to reduce the emissions.
good luck tomorrow Chicago, hope you get your snowfall...
looks like tomorrow is snow day for alot of states huh..
GFS at 48 hours..there's the snow storm..........
Thanks doc
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
912 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

WVZ037-038-046-047-241900-
/O.EXT.KRLX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-130124T1900Z/
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SUMMERSVILLE...RICHWOOD...CRAIGSVILLE...
COWEN...MARLINTON...ELKINS
912 AM EST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Low 40s an extremely windy here.
whew winds gusting along the east coast...........
I love the story... poor new guy
Good Morning everyone!

I hope everyone stays safe with the cold weather, and the air pollution. :-) Stay safe from the flu, as well. See you guys all later!

WunderGirl12
Thanks Doctor Masters! :-)

WunderGirl12
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Low 40s an extremely windy here.

Cool 60's here. Supposed to be 81 today, and will be drizzly and in the 70's for the next 6 days.
Quoting wxmod:


As always, NASA is not telling us why ship tracks only happen near the US coast in the Pacific Ocean. It seems noone wants to research the issue. (why? because they are wx mod for the benefit of south west desert water users)


NASA isn't saying ship tracks only happen off the US Coast in the Pacific because NASA doesn't want to be wrong.

Here's some in the Bay of Biscay:



Here's some in the Atlantic:



And here someone has put together a map showing their general occurrence around the globe:



Do they influence weather? Almost certainly. Are they part of some grand conspiracy? Insufficient evidence.

Given the current body of evidence, I think the safe hypothesis is that they are just another example of humans influencing their environment in a completely unintended manner.

That said, I would be curious if anyone has used ship tracking websites like Marinetraffic.com
to match up specific trails with the ship causing them.

If only we could find someone with a passion for the subject to carry out this research... :)
Thanks Dr. Masters, sure is pretty cold outside.

Just got back from school, only 2 more finals to go. It looks like I should get anywhere between 1 and 4 inches of snow from this clipper system.

It is a nice 17F here.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Cool 60's here. Supposed to be 81 today, and will be drizzly and in the 70's for the next 6 days.


Same for my town. (When did Old man winter think I could only get 2 weeks of jean weather? What have I done?)

WunderGirl12
Vegas is going to get a reputation for being rainier than Oregon!

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I love the story... poor new guy


Only city boys, born 'n bred, could fall for such a prank~

Too bad about Utah.... we have those inversions at times, but have been fairly fortunate so far this winter There was such a thing forecast today, in fact, but a nice gushy SW wind has it nice and fresh and warm too ... 40F + ....!

Green....HOUSE!
Green.....HOUSE!
Green....HOUSE!!!
I woke up to about a inch and a half of snow.It was very beautiful outside and freezing.So the snow won't melt much.Once again Reagan air port records not even a inch..Some places got 5 inches.Jealous!.
We have reached our high temp for the day of 37 degrees in Central NC. Temp is already falling and will bottom out in the upper teens before light snow moves in tomorrow.
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

a millibar lower than last run, monster extratropical storm forecast to reach 919 mb over N. Atlantic. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/294299436752986 112/photo/1
Thanks, Dr. Masters. While living, working, and traveling in the West, I had on more than one occasion the misfortune of spending time in SLC when a temperature inversion put the city underneath a thick puddle of poisonous, brownish, reeking air. It was always unpleasant--but I was never there when the situation is as bad as it is right now, and I'm thankful for that. I wish the citizens the best, and some quick winds to clear things out.
All of you guys that get snow are lucky! I don't even get a flurry here in Florida. :-(

WunderGirl12

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Low 40s an extremely windy here.

An extremely normal 80 degrees and E wind of about 15 mph here in Nassau!
Quoting Thrawst:


An extremely normal 80 degrees and E wind of about 15 mph here in Nassau!


Nice...A "chilly" 65*F here in Florida.

WunderGirl12
Quoting MrMixon:


NASA isn't saying ship tracks only happen off the US Coast in the Pacific because NASA doesn't want to be wrong.

Here's some in the Bay of Biscay:



Here's some in the Atlantic:



And here someone has put together a map showing their general occurrence around the globe:



Do they influence weather? Almost certainly. Are they part of some grand conspiracy? Insufficient evidence.

Given the current body of evidence, I think the safe hypothesis is that they are just another example of humans influencing their environment in a completely unintended manner.

That said, I would be curious if anyone has used ship tracking websites like Marinetraffic.com
to match up specific trails with the ship causing them.

If only we could find someone with a passion for the subject to carry out this research... :)



As you know, I watch the MODIS images every day.Ship trails in the NE Pacific are common. Other occurrences are rare, though, as you point out, there are a few. I posted about the photos you posted above, when they occurred.
Quoting WunderGirl12:
All of you guys that get snow are lucky! I don't even get a flurry here in Florida. :-(

WunderGirl12
That's what happens when you live in Florida :).It is a tropical paradise after all which is why many people who can't take the cold vacation in Florida for about a few months and return back up north when it's warm again.
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting MrMixon:


NASA isn't saying ship tracks only happen off the US Coast in the Pacific because NASA doesn't want to be wrong.

Here's some in the Bay of Biscay:



Here's some in the Atlantic:



And here someone has put together a map showing their general occurrence around the globe:



Do they influence weather? Almost certainly. Are they part of some grand conspiracy? Insufficient evidence.

Given the current body of evidence, I think the safe hypothesis is that they are just another example of humans influencing their environment in a completely unintended manner.

That said, I would be curious if anyone has used ship tracking websites like Marinetraffic.com
to match up specific trails with the ship causing them.

If only we could find someone with a passion for the subject to carry out this research... :)


Immediately after 9/11, air traffic was grounded throughout the US. Not sure for how long, but researchers concluded that the lack of contrails had a significant warming effect, since contrails block sunlight.

So, airplanes may actually be helping to moderate greenhouse gas induced global warming.

Airplane contrails and their effect on temperature
Thanks Doc
Well some of the local mets are advertising that they wouldn't be to surprised if someone in the D.C metro area gets perhaps 4-5 inches.I'm hoping.
Nice Blog entry Doc. Those pictures of Utah remind me of the air pollution in Burbank, CA and the SoCal area during the 60-70's before all the rules changed and the SCAQMD started monitoring and fining sources. We get an occasional No-Burn day here. Not many but they happen. The air back here in the Inland Empire is much worse than the L.A. Area as the mountains can contain it like ir does in Utah's. It doesn't get like that though.

56.7 hasn't budged a tenth of a degree since the morning reading. Starting to rain nicely now.
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Nice...A "chilly" 65*F here in Florida.

WunderGirl12


When I live in Florida, I AM a Floridian, and I REFUSE to leave the house if the temp is under 70.

Period!

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 31 min 45 sec ago
Rain
54
Rain Mist
Humidity: 93%
Dew Point: 52
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.17 in (Rising)
Visibility: 4.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 5.20 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Overcast 3700 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

Temperature just dropped to 56.3 from 56.7
Quoting yonzabam:


Immediately after 9/11, air traffic was grounded throughout the US. Not sure for how long, but researchers concluded that the lack of contrails had a significant warming effect, since contrails block sunlight.

So, airplanes may actually be helping to moderate greenhouse gas induced global warming.

Airplane contrails and their effect on temperature


This is from the article:

"Some have suggested that these results were skewed because unusually clear weather prevailed that week in September 2001. In other words, it was natural variation, not the absence of contrails, that led to the large temperature differential immediately following 9-11.

But there's no doubt that whether the net effect is to cool or warm, contrails can quite dramatically change cloud cover."


There is little doubt that all the things we do have an impact on climate. Some of it is just local influences. Some of it is regional influences. Some of it is global influences.


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EST Thursday 24 January 2013
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 30.5 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 7.5°F
Dewpoint: -3.3°F
Humidity: 61 %
Wind: N 14 mph
Wind Chill: -9
Re: ship tracks: Is it possible that these are mostly or all factory fishing ships cruising the fishing grounds harvesting (or over-harvesting) seafood for a hungry planet? They would be cruising the areas in a pattern like that to get the most fishing in the least area, I should think. They'd also probably emit more than ordinary freighters because of the processing of the catch and running the deep freezers aboard. They would also be beyond the 3-mile or 12-mile limit as these appear to be.

Bob
Prof Lee did a nice blog entry last week about the Chinese smog issue:
Link
Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Re: ship tracks: Is it possible that these are mostly or all factory fishing ships cruising the fishing grounds harvesting (or over-harvesting) seafood for a hungry planet? They would be cruising the areas in a pattern like that to get the most fishing in the least area, I should think. They'd also probably emit more than ordinary freighters because of the processing of the catch and running the deep freezers aboard. They would also be beyond the 3-mile or 12-mile limit as these appear to be.

Bob


This is right of the coast from one of the busiest Port Complexes in the Country. So, that is why so many trails.
My prediction: February 5 Dr Masters blog - US Contiguous states record the 7th warmest January on record.
Quoting wxmod:



As you know, I watch the MODIS images every day.Ship trails in the NE Pacific are common. Other occurrences are rare, though, as you point out, there are a few. I posted about the photos you posted above, when they occurred.
since you spend more time looking at pictures, and less time studying how weather works, the explanation will remain out of your grasp.

hit up some textbooks, learn about what makes a cloud form and persist, what conditions must exist to make ship trails visible and persistent, etc.
when you learn how to analyze these occurrences from a meteorological understanding, you might just get insight into why NASA isn't explaining Weather 101, and you might start to understand why conspiracy is an absurd end to your means.
the ships are always shipping.. you're observing WEATHER!!!
Forecast min temps for this Wednesday
Quoting luvtogolf:
My prediction: February 5 Dr Masters blog - US Contiguous states record the 7th warmest January on record.



You forgot the second part:



"Climate Change will raise seas heights by 30 meters in 2020 at the rate we're going...."


LOL






Quoting WunderGirl12:
All of you guys that get snow are lucky! I don't even get a flurry here in Florida. :-(

WunderGirl12


Quoting washingtonian115:
That's what happens when you live in Florida :).It is a tropical paradise after all which is why many people who can't take the cold vacation in Florida for about a few months and return back up north when it's warm again.


But it does snow in Florida on rare occasions, not nearly as rare for those who live in the Panhandle or far northern peninsular Florida. It is not accurate to say that one does not even get a flurry here in Florida unless one is referring to the present situation only.

Climate has cycles like everything else in nature, regardless of whatever mitigating effects humans may have on it as well. And for those who have been alive and have lived in Florida for more than a couple of decades, snow has been a reality up close and in person and not just flurries either.

In fact, most any meteorologist would tell you that even a heavy snow event is not impossible in most parts of Florida with the possible exceptions of extreme South Florida and the Keys. It is just that the atmospheric conditions which would have to converge perfectly to produce such an event are extremely rare in this climatological age. But extremely rare does not mean impossible, just very unlikely. Then again, it is also very unlikely that any given human being will be struck and killed by lightning but for those who suffer this most unfortunate fate, those odds mean very little.

Just be patient, WunderGirl12 and you will someday see flurries (at least) in Florida!
Quoting PedleyCA:
Hope you're gettin some rain. Here in Santa Barbara we have received over an inch of rain (1.23in so far) since yesterday Link. I got absolutely drenched biking to class this morning. Rain rates haven't been too high, but it's been slow and steady -- and warm! Gotta love subtropical moisture. Mountains to our north are squeezing out the moisture nicely too.




It doesn't look like much on radar but the radar is based quite a ways a way from Santa Barbara and is looking fairly high up by the time the beam reaches our area. As a result, the radar likely misses the lowest level of the atmosphere where the subtropical moisture coming from the south is squeezed out of the air by the 3000 ft mountains to the north of Santa Barbara.
Quoting MrMixon:


NASA isn't saying ship tracks only happen off the US Coast in the Pacific because NASA doesn't want to be wrong.

Here's some in the Bay of Biscay:



Here's some in the Atlantic:



And here someone has put together a map showing their general occurrence around the globe:



Do they influence weather? Almost certainly. Are they part of some grand conspiracy? Insufficient evidence.

Given the current body of evidence, I think the safe hypothesis is that they are just another example of humans influencing their environment in a completely unintended manner.

That said, I would be curious if anyone has used ship tracking websites like Marinetraffic.com
to match up specific trails with the ship causing them.

If only we could find someone with a passion for the subject to carry out this research... :)
Quoting MrMixon:


NASA isn't saying ship tracks only happen off the US Coast in the Pacific because NASA doesn't want to be wrong.

Here's some in the Bay of Biscay:



Here's some in the Atlantic:



And here someone has put together a map showing their general occurrence around the globe:



Do they influence weather? Almost certainly. Are they part of some grand conspiracy? Insufficient evidence.

Given the current body of evidence, I think the safe hypothesis is that they are just another example of humans influencing their environment in a completely unintended manner.

That said, I would be curious if anyone has used ship tracking websites like Marinetraffic.com
to match up specific trails with the ship causing them.

If only we could find someone with a passion for the subject to carry out this research... :)

Its just that in the ocean there isn't much condensation nuclei due to a lack of anything other than water, so when a ship drifts by the smoke it releases forms clouds
Quoting wxmod:



As you know, I watch the MODIS images every day.Ship trails in the NE Pacific are common. Other occurrences are rare, though, as you point out, there are a few. I posted about the photos you posted above, when they occurred.


If you've seen ship tracks in other basins then why did you say in the last blog that they only happen off the US Pacific Coast? It appears to me that these happen wherever there are ships of sufficient size/number and the atmospheric conditions are right to support the formation and persistence of condensation plumes.

What evidence do you have to support your hypothesis that ship tracks are part of an effort to directly influence precipitation patterns in the Southwest and are not simply the result of normal shipping activity?

Quoting TomTaylor:
Hope you're gettin some rain. Here in Santa Barbara we have received over an inch of rain since yesterday Link. I got absolutely drenched biking to class this morning. Rain rates haven't been too high, but it's been slow and steady -- and warm! Gotta love subtropical moisture. Mountains to our north are squeezing out the moisture nicely too.




It doesn't look like much on radar but the radar is based quite a ways a way from Santa Barbara and is looking fairly high up by the time the beam reaches our area. As a result, the radar likely misses the lowest level of the atmosphere where the subtropical moisture coming from the south is squeezed out of the air by the 3000 ft mountains to the north of Santa Barbara.


They are reporting .16 so far this morning to add to the .03 shown for MTD totals.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



That is just creepy looking....
Can anyone tell me what's wrong with this??

Historic North Atlantic Superstorm Possible for Saturday
.

By Fred Pickhardt On January 23, 2013

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 25 January 2013 showing possible historic storm low.

A historic extratropical storm is possible over the central North Atlantic on Saturday, the 26th of January based on the latest computer models. A weak 1014mb low will move off the Virginia and North Carolina coasts early Thursday. It will move rapidly east to northeast, deepening to a 977 mb storm low by 12Z Friday, the 25th, southeast of Cape Race with winds up to 50 knots. Thereafter, this low is forecast to “bomb out” as it moves northeast, dropping 57 mb of pressure to 920 mb by 12Z Saturday, the 26th, with hurricane force winds of 85 knots (nearly 100 mph) likely.

The all-time record for North Atlantic extratropical storms was the Braer Storm of January 1993 that reached a minimum pressure of 914 mb (26.99 in Hg) on January 10th. The 1993 storm caused blizzard conditions across much of Scotland and also led to the final breakup of the oil tanker MV Braer, which had been stranded in rocks off the Shetland Islands by a previous storm.
http://gcaptain.com/historic-north-atlantic-super storm-remains-likely/
Lake Michigan off of St. Joseph, MI:

Did anyone think to video the can of paint 'splosion?
That would be awesome to see.
How often do they get new observers up there?

FYI global warming isn't over when it is winter, or night for that matter... see it got colder! NOT.
Quoting MrMixon:


If you've seen ship tracks in other basins then why did you say in the last blog that they only happen off the US Pacific Coast? It appears to me that these happen wherever there are ships of sufficient size/number and the atmospheric conditions are right to support the formation and persistence of condensation plumes.

What evidence do you have to support your hypothesis that ship tracks are part of an effort to directly influence precipitation patterns in the Southwest and are not simply the result of normal shipping activity?



Evidence: NASA's information about ship trails is very meager, almost meaningless, and has not always been accurate (until recently, their website said that ship pollution was not an air pollution problem). More evidence: the jet stream moves north and south along the California coast and there is rain in the forecast in the deep desert and people who blog here for a living keep saying that cloud whitening has a "beneficial" effect. There's nothing beneficial about adding particulates to the atmosphere as that decreases the lapse rate and actually decreases rainfall overall. Once again, the government should be studying this, and there is no evidence suggesting that obvious studies are taking place. The lack of information on this topic is astounding, and has to construed as evidence.
Weather or not,

I am backo'

: )


Well, so much for that, all gone.
"Vary" Interesting,...

Dung Beetles Navigate Via the Milky Way, An Animal-Kingdom First

Posted by Christine Dell'Amore of National Geographic News in Weird & Wild on January 24, 2013


The tiny insects can orient themselves to the bright stripe of light generated by our galaxy, and move in a line relative to it, according to recent experiments in South Africa.

“This is a complicated navigational feat—it’s quite impressive for an animal that size,” said study co-author Eric Warrant, a biologist at the University of Lund in Sweden.



Moving in a straight line is crucial to dung beetles, which live in a rough-and-tumble world where competition for excrement is fierce. (Play “Dung Beetle Derby” on the National Geographic Kids website.)

Once the beetles sniff out a steaming pile, males painstakingly craft the dung into balls and roll them as far away from the chaotic mound as possible, often toting a female that they have also picked up. The pair bury the dung, which later becomes food for their babies.

But it’s not always that easy. Lurking about the dung pile are lots of dung beetles just waiting to snatch a freshly made ball. (Related: “Dung Beetles’ Favorite Poop Revealed.”)

That’s why ball-bearing beetles have to make a fast beeline away from the pile.

“If they roll back into the dung pile, it’s curtains,” Warrant said. If thieves near the pile steal their ball, the beetle has to start all over again, which is a big investment of energy.

Seeing Stars

Scientists already knew that dung beetles can move in straight lines away from dung piles by detecting a symmetrical pattern of polarized light that appears around the sun. We can’t see this pattern, but insects can thanks to special photoreceptors in their eyes.



Quoting Slamguitar:
Can anyone tell me what's wrong with this??



There is ice in the North Pole?

Just nowhere near as much as their should be. It's about two standard deviations out of normal by area, and missing about half the volume for this time of year.

So while he's certainly incorrect in saying there is "no ice," his point is still valid...
Quoting luvtogolf:
My prediction: February 5 Dr Masters blog - US Contiguous states record the 7th warmest January on record.
Oh, I doubt that. While there have been upwards of 1,100 more record high temperatures than record low temperatures this month--including over the last week, where record daytime highs have outnumbered record overnight lows by 196 to 91--the current cold air mass is expected to linger for a while, so it's doubtful this January will end up in the top 10 or even top 20 warmest. Though I'm certain Dr. Masters will report that, too; he always does...
Quoting Luisport:
Historic North Atlantic Superstorm Possible for Saturday
.

By Fred Pickhardt On January 23, 2013

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 25 January 2013 showing possible historic storm low.

A historic extratropical storm is possible over the central North Atlantic on Saturday, the 26th of January based on the latest computer models. A weak 1014mb low will move off the Virginia and North Carolina coasts early Thursday. It will move rapidly east to northeast, deepening to a 977 mb storm low by 12Z Friday, the 25th, southeast of Cape Race with winds up to 50 knots. Thereafter, this low is forecast to “bomb out” as it moves northeast, dropping 57 mb of pressure to 920 mb by 12Z Saturday, the 26th, with hurricane force winds of 85 knots (nearly 100 mph) likely.

The all-time record for North Atlantic extratropical storms was the Braer Storm of January 1993 that reached a minimum pressure of 914 mb (26.99 in Hg) on January 10th. The 1993 storm caused blizzard conditions across much of Scotland and also led to the final breakup of the oil tanker MV Braer, which had been stranded in rocks off the Shetland Islands by a previous storm.
http://gcaptain.com/historic-north-atlantic-super storm-remains-likely/
..yes the models have been hinting at that for several days now, folks heed your local warnings this weekend
Quoting Minnemike:
since you spend more time looking at pictures, and less time studying how weather works, the explanation will remain out of your grasp.

hit up some textbooks, learn about what makes a cloud form and persist, what conditions must exist to make ship trails visible and persistent, etc.
when you learn how to analyze these occurrences from a meteorological understanding, you might just get insight into why NASA isn't explaining Weather 101, and you might start to understand why conspiracy is an absurd end to your means.
the ships are always shipping.. you're observing WEATHER!!!


I never used the word "conspiracy". The satellite photos I bring to people's attention are the result of business, plain and simple. Unfortunately, I would venture to guess that you did not see any mention of ship trails in your school text books. So how do you make up your mind so clearly on this subject. Certainly there should be a few books written specifically on the subject of ship trails. NOAA certainly should have a mountain of info to share with the world about their makeup and effects on the environment. Where's the info and what gives you the right to have your mind made up?
"Tired Canards"

Notice is hereby made that I am co-opting the phrase "Tired Canards" from fellow WU blogger schistkicker. Though the specific definition, connotation, or correct usage is fairly vague to me at this point I will be incorporating said phrase into forthcoming blog comments where applicable or otherwise deemed necessary. You have been advised.
Quoting Slamguitar:
Can anyone tell me what's wrong with this??
Uh...the guy who created the video has a very tenuous grasp on the basics of climate science? And he is putting a bit too much weight on the words of a non-climatologist TV weather guy? And he doesn't understand what "extent" means?

There's little no doubt that the relatively recent lack of ice in the Arctic over the summer and fall is playing havoc with the "normal" weather patterns to which we've all grown accustomed. That video's creator might be really shocked to hear that things are only going to get worse as the Arctic reaches an ice-free state sometime in the next several years. IOW: he ain't seen nothin' yet...
Quoting JNCali:
"Tired Canards"

Notice is hereby made that I am co-opting the phrase "Tired Canards" from fellow WU blogger schistkicker. Though the specific definition, connotation, or correct usage is fairly vague to me at this point I will be incorporating said phrase into forthcoming blog comments where applicable or otherwise deemed necessary. You have been advised.


"Tired Wingtips" maybe he means "Tired Feet"
Quoting wxmod:


Evidence: NASA's information about ship trails is very meager, almost meaningless, and has not always been accurate (until recently, their website said that ship pollution was not an air pollution problem). More evidence: the jet stream moves north and south along the California coast and there is rain in the forecast in the deep desert and people who blog here for a living keep saying that cloud whitening has a "beneficial" effect. There's nothing beneficial about adding particulates to the atmosphere as that decreases the lapse rate and actually decreases rainfall overall. Once again, the government should be studying this, and there is no evidence suggesting that obvious studies are taking place. The lack of information on this topic is astounding, and has to construed as evidence.


Searching google scholar for "ship tracks" yields over 4,500 results. Click that link for access to NUMEROUS papers on this topic. Just because you couldn't locate the research doesn't mean it's not out there...
Quoting PedleyCA:


"Tired Wingtips" maybe he means "Tired Feet"
Yeah, isn't it great? What does it mean.. I'm thinking of using a version which would go something like, "Your canards are tiresome", or maybe, "Your canards are most certainly tired!" I simply can't wait to unleash it on the unsuspecting commenter :D
co2now.org


394.39ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for December 2012

Quoting JNCali:
Yeah, isn't it great? What does it mean.. I'm thinking of using a version which would go something like, "Your canards are tiresome", or maybe, "Your canards are most certainly tired!" I simply can't wait to unleash it on the unsuspecting commenter :D


Google that term. There are all kinds of interesting stuff out there. You might want to preface your own definition in advance. But those sound good.

edited for spelling mistakes and clarity.
Quoting Patrap:
co2now.org


394.39ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for December 2012



You're going to need a bigger chart soon!
Quoting Luisport:
Historic North Atlantic Superstorm Possible for Saturday
.

By Fred Pickhardt On January 23, 2013

NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 25 January 2013 showing possible historic storm low.

A historic extratropical storm is possible over the central North Atlantic on Saturday, the 26th of January based on the latest computer models. A weak 1014mb low will move off the Virginia and North Carolina coasts early Thursday. It will move rapidly east to northeast, deepening to a 977 mb storm low by 12Z Friday, the 25th, southeast of Cape Race with winds up to 50 knots. Thereafter, this low is forecast to “bomb out” as it moves northeast, dropping 57 mb of pressure to 920 mb by 12Z Saturday, the 26th, with hurricane force winds of 85 knots (nearly 100 mph) likely.

The all-time record for North Atlantic extratropical storms was the Braer Storm of January 1993 that reached a minimum pressure of 914 mb (26.99 in Hg) on January 10th. The 1993 storm caused blizzard conditions across much of Scotland and also led to the final breakup of the oil tanker MV Braer, which had been stranded in rocks off the Shetland Islands by a previous storm.
http://gcaptain.com/historic-north-atlantic-super storm-remains-likely/
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

48-hour position & min pressure of 923 mb for historical explosive extratropical cyclone --> "warm seclusion" http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/294525586204942 337/photo/1

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Saturday NATL "bomb" in extreme tail of distribution of explosive extratropical cyclones -- from 30-50 per year in NATL & NPAC

5 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Low-level (700-850 hPa) warm air "secluded" at center surrounded by major hurricane force winds -- could be 100-knots easily on s. flank


Thank you for for bringing attention to the health issues from high particulate pollution due to temperature inversion in Utah. I would just like to make people aware that this is not a localized phenomenon.

A temperature inversion with intense fog and increased PM 2.5 persisted for weeks in the Columbia Gorge/Portland Oregon area. Some intermountain areas from Washington to California have intense air stagnation periods every year. For instance, for 6 out of the past 7 days,, Lakeview Oregon's PM 2.5 was over 100 most of the time, over 200 for several hours a day, and only occasionally under the EPA's "safe" level of 35.

It is even a problem at times on the coast. We get temperature inversions with high pressure in coastal valleys too, even right next to the ocean. Our winters are mostly rainy and windy. Weather comes from offshore, and the air is clean. But when we get high pressure, it stops raining, and people burn their yard waste and logging "slash". We have easterly or no winds, which makes it colder than usual, and people use their wood stoves more. There seems to be no regulation of burning during temperature inversions here. The state doesn't monitor air quality here like they do inland - no one seems to think about it being a problem here. But because the valleys are so small and bounded by such steep hills and mountains, particulates can build up really quickly.

Plus, when there is an easterly flow, polluted inland air gets pushed down the Columbia River and over the coast range and stacks up here, blocked by offshore air masses. Steep headlands block northward or southward dispersion of smoke and pollution. When we get onshore winds again, they push the bad air that has accumulated here up against the steep hillsides and mountains next to coastal communities and it seems to get even more dense before it disperses.

Our air quality is usually better than inland, but being next to the ocean doesn't necessarily mean clean air. As a person with asthma who is very sensitive to particulate pollution, I can vouch that it does cause health problems, and I am really glad that the doctors in Utah have gotten together to take a stand on this.

Here is a link to Oregon DEQ real-time air quality monitoring. Remember it only shows the current and past 7 days, so you may not see exactly what I saw depending on when you read this: Link
In regards to the North Atlantic Bomb, it will really be interesting to see how low it goes. The GFS has been showing it at about the same intensity for the past 24 hours worth of runs, with the NCEP MAG page showing a closed 928 mb isobar, shown here on the 12Z GFS @ 51 hours.



The 12Z ECMWF will be interesting because between yesterday's 12Z and todays 00Z runs, it actually closed off another isobar (shown in intervals of five) to where the lowest closed isobar depicted is 925 mb, which can be seen below @ 60 hours.



OPC has the low hitting a max of 924 mb, which is in very good agreement with the past several runs.



What it actually does bottom out to should be within 48 hours now, so we won't have to wait too long. The disturbance that will eventually develop the bomb can actually be seen on the US water vapor loop right now, kicking just offshore the Delmarva Peninsula.



I often find it difficult that such a benign looking feature like this can become such a destructive force, but such is the beauty of meteorology.
925mb, hurricane force winds on the south side at 48 hours:

I guess that is one way to make metric temperature conversion moot. Just lower the temperature to -40.

As for the beetles, how do they know it is the polarized light from the milky way that guides them and not the sun. The end of the article says the sun and not the milky way. Were these night tests? Do dung beetles get lost when it is cloudy??? How odd.
Quoting Levi32:
925mb, hurricane force winds on the south side at 48 hours:



Well, I do not think that the Bermuda High will have much of an impact on this one. :-)
Quoting wxmod:


I never used the word "conspiracy". The satellite photos I bring to people's attention are the result of business, plain and simple. Unfortunately, I would venture to guess that you did not see any mention of ship trails in your school text books. So how do you make up your mind so clearly on this subject. Certainly there should be a few books written specifically on the subject of ship trails. NOAA certainly should have a mountain of info to share with the world about their makeup and effects on the environment. Where's the info and what gives you the right to have your mind made up?
obfuscate all you want. it won't make you any more knowledgeable until you take my advice and Learn a thing or two about basic meteorology and cloud production.
Quoting Levi32:
925mb, hurricane force winds on the south side at 48 hours:



hmmm...

Quoting Luisport:

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Saturday NATL "bomb" in extreme tail of distribution of explosive extratropical cyclones -- from 30-50 per year in NATL & NPAC

5 minRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Low-level (700-850 hPa) warm air "secluded" at center surrounded by major hurricane force winds -- could be 100-knots easily on s. flank


Quoting 1900hurricane:
In regards to the North Atlantic Bomb, it will really be interesting to see how low it goes. The GFS has been showing it at about the same intensity for the past 24 hours worth of runs, with the NCEP MAG page showing a closed 928 mb isobar, shown here on the 12Z GFS @ 51 hours.



The 12Z ECMWF will be interesting because between yesterday's 12Z and todays 00Z runs, it actually closed off another isobar (shown in intervals of five) to where the lowest closed isobar depicted is 925 mb, which can be seen below @ 60 hours.



OPC has the low hitting a max of 924 mb, which is in very good agreement with the past several runs.



What it actually does bottom out to should be within 48 hours now, so we won't have to wait too long. The disturbance that will eventually develop the bomb can actually be seen on the US water vapor loop right now, kicking just offshore the Delmarva Peninsula.



I often find it difficult that such a benign looking feature like this can become such a destructive force, but such is the beauty of meteorology.


Oh God !!!
Now I am getting Scared From 1900 post all that rain is going towards me . and Luisport 100 kts in the south of the system ...
Quoting MrMixon:


Searching google scholar for "ship tracks" yields over 4,500 results. Click that link for access to NUMEROUS papers on this topic. Just because you couldn't locate the research doesn't mean it's not out there...


Anyone who has searched on Google knows how erroneous your figure is.
I searched google scholar this way: "weather modification"+"ship tracks" and added to return only results after 2009 and came up wit 12 results, most of which are irrelevant. That's pretty slim pickins. Sorry.
Please be one of the people who helps out with clarity on this issue by reading the scholarly articles and quoting them. Search engine result numbers are not relevant or helpful.
Quoting Minnemike:
obfuscate all you want. it won't make you any more knowledgeable until you take my advice and Learn a thing or two about basic meteorology and cloud production.


You don't know who I am or what I know.
Quoting necanicumwoman:
Thank you for for bringing attention to the health issues from high particulate pollution due to temperature inversion in Utah. I would just like to make people aware that this is not a localized phenomenon.

A temperature inversion with intense fog and increased PM 2.5 persisted for weeks in the Columbia Gorge/Portland Oregon area. Some intermountain areas from Washington to California have intense air stagnation periods every year. For instance, for 6 out of the past 7 days,, Lakeview Oregon's PM 2.5 was over 100 most of the time, over 200 for several hours a day, and only occasionally under the EPA's "safe" level of 35.

It is even a problem at times on the coast. We get temperature inversions with high pressure in coastal valleys too, even right next to the ocean. Our winters are mostly rainy and windy. Weather comes from offshore, and the air is clean. But when we get high pressure, it stops raining, and people burn their yard waste and logging "slash". We have easterly or no winds, which makes it colder than usual, and people use their wood stoves more. There seems to be no regulation of burning during temperature inversions here. The state doesn't monitor air quality here like they do inland - no one seems to think about it being a problem here. But because the valleys are so small and bounded by such steep hills and mountains, particulates can build up really quickly.

Plus, when there is an easterly flow, polluted inland air gets pushed down the Columbia River and over the coast range and stacks up here, blocked by offshore air masses. Steep headlands block northward or southward dispersion of smoke and pollution. When we get onshore winds again, they push the bad air that has accumulated here up against the steep hillsides and mountains next to coastal communities and it seems to get even more dense before it disperses.

Our air quality is usually better than inland, but being next to the ocean doesn't necessarily mean clean air. As a person with asthma who is very sensitive to particulate pollution, I can vouch that it does cause health problems, and I am really glad that the doctors in Utah have gotten together to take a stand on this.

Here is a link to Oregon DEQ real-time air quality monitoring. Remember it only shows the current and past 7 days, so you may not see exactly what I saw depending on when you read this: Link


Great post! My brother used to live in Redlands California just East of Los Angeles, and right up against the mountains. Even after the establishment of the AQMD some days the air quality is still brutal.. There is no escaping the resulting particulate pollution from millions cars and thousands of airliners and diesel trucks running 24 hours a day throughout the greater LA basin. I can still remember the time I was skiing in Big Bear and the smog had made its way up into the Big Bear valley which is over 6500' elevation.. I could not believe it..
Here's a pic when its NOT smoggy!
Quoting RTSplayer:


hmmm...



It's a tough audience today, RTSplayer. ...... Let's go grab a beer before the tomato launch. sigh
Quoting RTSplayer:


hmmm...




Significant model failure by the global models to predict this cut off low subtropical rain event over the Southern California region. Models were predicting any where from 0 - 0.5 inches (GFS and CMC and near zero, NAM, NOGAPS and ECMWF higher) over the coastal Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles area for the 0z Thurs to 0z Friday period. So far today (as of 19z Thurs) rainfall totals for Santa Barbara are running around 1- 1.3 inches. Totals along coastal Ventura County are around one inch and totals in the Los Angeles basin are around 3/4 to 1 inch.

I'll have more on this later today once the rainfall totals come in for the 0z 1/24 to 0z 1/25 period (which ends in 4 hrs).
Patrap... Yes indeed a 'vary' cool article on the dung beetles. Insects, birds and animals are perhaps more intelligent to this than even us humans. Amazing!
Quoting TomTaylor:
Significant model failure by the global models to predict this cut off low subtropical rain event over the Southern California region. Models were predicting any where from 0 - 0.5 inches (GFS and CMC and near zero, NAM, NOGAPS and ECMWF higher) over the coastal Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles area for the 0z Thurs to 0z Friday period. So far today (as of 19z Thurs) rainfall totals for Santa Barbara are running around 1- 1.3 inches. Totals along coastal Ventura County are around one inch and totals in the Los Angeles basin are around 3/4 to 1 inch.

I'll have more on this later today once the rainfall totals come in for the 0z 1/24 to 0z 1/25 period (which ends in 4 hrs).


KRAL is only reporting .19 which is puny.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Significant model failure by the global models to predict this cut off low subtropical rain event over the Southern California region. Models were predicting any where from 0 - 0.5 inches (GFS and CMC and near zero, NAM, NOGAPS and ECMWF higher) over the coastal Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles area for the 0z Thurs to 0z Friday period. So far today (as of 19z Thurs) rainfall totals for Santa Barbara are running around 1- 1.3 inches. Totals along coastal Ventura County are around one inch and totals in the Los Angeles basin are around 3/4 to 1 inch.

I'll have more on this later today once the rainfall totals come in for the 0z 1/24 to 0z 1/25 period (which ends in 4 hrs).

Speaking of model failure and cut-off lows, looks at the huge divergence between the GFS and ECMFWF as soon as four days out. This is ridiculous!



And as you can imagine, it only gets worse...



Are these solutions even for the same planet???
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Speaking of model failure and cut-off lows, looks at the huge divergence between the GFS and ECMFWF as soon as four days out. This is ridiculous!



And as you can imagine, it only gets worse...



Are these solutions even for the same planet???


That is comical lol
Quoting biff4ugo:
I guess that is one way to make metric temperature conversion moot. Just lower the temperature to -40.

As for the beetles, how do they know it is the polarized light from the milky way that guides them and not the sun. The end of the article says the sun and not the milky way. Were these night tests? Do dung beetles get lost when it is cloudy??? How odd.
As per the Dung... you need to click the link and read it. Explains it.
Quoting wxmod:


You don't know who I am or what I know.


I can hear The Twilight Zone theme music for some reason.


Weather news - massive rain in northern Queensland - I'm sure Aussie will post wonderful stats and stuff :). Nearly 300m at Rockhampton in the last 24hours sheesh!
Winter Weather Advisory
Statement as of 10:00 AM CST on January 24, 2013
Middle TN Advisory....

... Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from midnight
tonight to noon CST Friday...

* timing... midnight tonight until noon Friday.

* Main impact... icing of trees... power lines and roads. Ice
accumulation up to two tenths of an inch.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods freezing rain and
sleet will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery
roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Quoting TomTaylor:
So the cooling trend you pointed out in your images is not beneficial for tropical development in the mid-Atlantic and Cape Verde region.

How?

Anomalously warm waters create an anomalously moist and warm lower atmosphere. Anomalous heat and moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere increases vertical instability. Increased vertical instability favors convection, which favors TC genesis. Since the area you defined (40-20W and 0-20N) is exactly where we see tropical waves march across the tropical Atlantic, we would want these waters to be as warm as possible. The warmer the water is, the more unstable the atmosphere is and the more likely the wave will be to develop.


Below I have boxed the region which you incorrectly defined as the Gulf of Guinea yesterday.


Quoting PedleyCA:


KRAL is only reporting .19 which is puny.
Well that's in Riverside...don't think you guys were ever expected to get too much rain.
Quoting Patrap:
co2now.org


394.39ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for December 2012



An annual rise of 2.6 ppm is unusually large for a La Nina year.

In the 80s, the annual rise was around 1.5 ppm. For the past decade it's about 2.1 ppm, a 40% increase.

I'm pretty sure this is a trend, rather than a 'blip', but the models are probably way behind the curve on this one.

1980 1.73
1981 1.43
1982 0.96
1983 2.13
1984 1.36
1985 1.25
1986 1.48
1987 2.29
1988 2.13
1989 1.32
1990 1.19
1991 0.99
1992 0.48
1993 1.40
1994 1.91
1995 1.99
1996 1.25
1997 1.91
1998 2.93
1999 0.93
2000 1.62
2001 1.58
2002 2.53
2003 2.29
2004 1.56
2005 2.52
2006 1.76
2007 2.22
2008 1.62
2009 1.92
2010 2.42
2011 1.83
2012 2.56

Quoting DavidHOUTX:


That is comical lol

It is until you realize that forecasters are going to try to make some sense out of that. The forecast discussions this afternoon are going to be quite a read!
Thanks Dr Jeff,
You had me ROTFLMAO with the Mt Washington newbie prank!
Jeeez, thought frat initiations were bad...
;)

Stay warm... easy enough down here along the mild Gulf Coast. So far, 3 light freezes / 8 frosts and my home thermometer hasn't dipped into the 20's yet this Winter (although KHUM arpt did drop briefly to 28F one morn).
Sigh...
G'day.

Quoting 1900hurricane:

Speaking of model failure and cut-off lows, looks at the huge divergence between the GFS and ECMFWF as soon as four days out. This is ridiculous!



And as you can imagine, it only gets worse...



Are these solutions even for the same planet???

It is amazing how poorly these models resolve cut-off lows (and highs). Especially when they are located over regions with little to no radiosondes.
HISTORIC BEAST

Quoting yonzabam:


An annual rise of 2.6 ppm is unusually large for a La Nina year.

In the 80s, the annual rise was around 1.5 ppm. For the past decade it's about 2.1 ppm, a 40% increase.

I'm pretty sure this is a trend, rather than a 'blip', but the models are probably way behind the curve on this one.


The average annual rise for the past 2 years was 2.25ppm/year, so it's not as out of hand as looking at just one year might imply.
So far today (starting at 00z), KSBA (Santa Barbara Airport) has received 1.45 inches of rain. Last night's GFS (00z) run had 0.1-0.2 inches of rain.


00z GFS rainfall total from 1/24 00z to 1/25 00z. KSBA is marked by the small red dot.


Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #21
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY THREE (09F)
6:00 AM FST January 25 2013
======================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON, AITUTAKI AND THE NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Southern Cooks Island)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW (Northern Cooks Island)


At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Garry (970 hPa) located near 14.7S 162.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 13 knots. Position good based on hourly GOES enhanced infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has improved significantly past in the past 24 hours. Deep convection persistent past 24 hours. System lies east of an upper short wave trough in a moderate to high sheared environment. Outflow good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with black eye in W surround, yielding DT=5.0, MET and PT agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it southeastwards, weakening it after 12 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.6S 161.5W - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 16.8S 160.3W - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.7S 158.3W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It is until you realize that forecasters are going to try to make some sense out of that. The forecast discussions this afternoon are going to be quite a read!


I was thinking the same thing lol. Just waiting on it to come out in the next hour or so.
New invest 96W in WPAC.

Quoting RTSplayer:


The average annual rise for the past 2 years was 2.25ppm/year, so it's not as out of hand as looking at just one year might imply.


The record for annual rise in CO2 is 2.93 ppm, set in the record El Nino year of 1998, when some parts of the Pacific were as much as 6C warmer than average.

Warm water outgasses CO2, and the warmer it is, the more it outgasses. Record wildfires in Indonesia would also have contributed to the 1998 figure.

The 2012 figure is the second highest in the record, despite the fact that it was a La Nina year, albeit a weak La Nina. That's unusual.
Hey look! You can finally see Michigan!

are we really talking about a 925 mb low or is that just what the european model is saying...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
HISTORIC BEAST

are we really talking about a 925 mb low or is that just what the european model is saying...
Quoting TomTaylor:

Anomalously warm waters create an anomalously moist and warm lower atmosphere. Anomalous heat and moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere increases vertical instability. Increased vertical instability favors convection, which favors TC genesis. Since the area you defined (40-20W and 0-20N) is exactly where we see tropical waves march across the tropical Atlantic, we would want these waters to be as warm as possible. The warmer the water is, the more unstable the atmosphere is and the more likely the wave will be to develop.


Below I have boxed the region which you incorrectly defined as the Gulf of Guinea yesterday.



Lol. I think it's safe to say I was having a bad day yesterday. Here's the region I meant (40W-0) and (0-20S) [said north yesterday]. Just for clarification...this region:



Cool waters in this region are a good thing and act similarly as a cool Gulf of Guinea does.
Quoting PedleyCA:


KRAL is only reporting .19 which is puny.


Quoting TomTaylor:
Well that's in Riverside...don't think you guys were ever expected to get too much rain.


Isn't that a major reason for the existence of the Mojave Desert? Precipitation amounts tend to drop off considerably the further east one goes in CA, most especially east of the coastal ranges. Pacific moisture is sapped by those mountains, creating a "rain shadow" for a few hundred miles to the east.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 4:00 PM EST Thursday 24 January 2013
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 30.5 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 11.1°F
Dewpoint: -4.5°F
Humidity: 48 %
Wind: NW 14 mph
Wind Chill: -5
This GFS run looks very stormy and cold for the eastern third of the country....Link
Quoting FLWaterFront:




Isn't that a major reason for the existence of the Mojave Desert? Precipitation amounts tend to drop off considerably the further east one goes in CA, most especially east of the coastal ranges. Pacific moisture is sapped by those mountains, creating a "rain shadow" for a few hundred miles to the east.


Mohave Desert

Most of the Mohave Desert is North and East of here (Inland Empire). What we call the High Desert is the part we refer to as the Mohave Desert, but if you see that link says it is in part of 4 states. The Low Desert is the part East of here. Death Valley is North East of here (learned something). I thought it was East. Thank you for making me look!
Quoting wxmod:


You don't know who I am or what I know.

We will grant you that advantage point.
Same applies to a lot of other people on here as well.
Quoting ktymisty:


I can hear The Twilight Zone theme music for some reason.


Weather news - massive rain in northern Queensland - I'm sure Aussie will post wonderful stats and stuff :). Nearly 300m at Rockhampton in the last 24hours sheesh!
"You unlock this door with the key of imagination, Beyond it is another dimension,a dimension of sound,a dimension of sight, a dimension of mind, You are moving into a land of both shadow and substance, of things and ideas. You've just crossed over, into the Twilight Zone"
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


It's a tough audience today, RTSplayer. ...... Let's go grab a beer before the tomato launch. sigh
I'll go, I'll go
Be ready..

The shift is just over the Horizon now.

SLA Gaining Momentum $500 Silver Now Openly Targeted

Posted on January 23, 2013 by maxkeiser| 13 Comments


The Final Pulse May Be A Stunning $8,000 For Gold & $500 Silver




Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol. I think it's safe to say I was having a bad day yesterday. Here's the region I meant (40W-0) and (0-20S) [said north yesterday]. Just for clarification...this region:



Cool waters in this region are a good thing and act similarly as a cool Gulf of Guinea does.
Yeah, more or less. Close to the equator, though, you don't want it to be below average. Otherwise, you will start to decrease the overall instability of the tropical Atlantic, and then the influence of other basins comes into play. Certainly from 5-20S we would want cooler SST anomalies, though.
Re Post 101:

David, could you please post the url for the 500mb chart you posted?

Thanks

Ted
Re Post 101:

David, could you please post the url for the 500mb chart you posted?

Thanks




To find a image url,...just quote it and select it from the quoted text.

EZ.


Quoting DavidHOUTX:
<>img src="http://i47.tinypic.com/hrgdqf.gif" style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;"





http://i47.tinypic.com/hrgdqf.gif




Quoting TomTaylor:
So far today (starting at 00z), KSBA (Santa Barbara Airport) has received 1.45 inches of rain. Last night's GFS (00z) run had 0.1-0.2 inches of rain.


00z GFS rainfall total from 1/24 00z to 1/25 00z. KSBA is marked by the small red dot.




Looks like another big piece of the storm is about the hit Santa Barbara.


Dry weather is expected to continue through Friday. A weak front will stall over the area Friday night and remain in place through Saturday. Dense fog will continue to be a concern each night, and a few showers will be possible north of the front Friday night or Saturday. Temperatures will remain warm with highs mainly in the 70s. Partly to mostly cloudy skies and warm temperatures are expected for early next week. The next significant chance of rain will be next Wednesday as a cold front moves through the area. A few strong storms will be possible with the front.
Quoting Patrap:
Be ready..

The shift is just over the Horizon now.

SLA Gaining Momentum $500 Silver Now Openly Targeted

Posted on January 23, 2013 by maxkeiser| 13 Comments


The Final Pulse May Be A Stunning $8,000 For Gold & $500 Silver




If gold hits $8000, maybe Fort Knox will solve some of our debt problems..:)
“Technically and fundamentally both metals are almost perfectly following the phases of an asset that enters a mania bubble. The theoretical chart, developed by Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, is proving to be a perfect roadmap for the silver and gold markets.


PWB - I always liked the song from the flip side of 2112 too. (Golden Earring's is ok, but Rush's reminds me more of the show.)

25 currently in S C IL, hoping the freezing rain stays to our south, hope it doesn't coat anyone too thickly as it heads east. Looks like we won't miss it next time, if that run Hydrus showed pans out. At least it's supposed to be near 60 soon after that, so not surprised FL will be near 80 then.

Big turn out for Stan's visitation today, hope they name the new I-70 bridge for him when it gets finished next year.
Quoting hydrus:
If gold hits $8000, maybe Fort Knox will solve some of our debt problems..:)
only if the walls and foundation where made outta gold.. probably just used as storage for chemical weap's now..
Quoting JNCali:
only if the walls and foundation where made outta gold.. probably just used as storage for chemical weap's now..
Lol.....So much for my weight to debt ratio theory.
Large warm sector for next Tuesday's storm system. GFS has a sufficient amount of instability for a outbreak even six days out, but remains in disagreement with the ECMWF.

The GFS gives 100 knot mid-level jet streak with 60-70 knots of Sfc-500mb bulk shear. The only problem about this is that the model does not show much veering with height. Winds are out of the southwest at the surface and out of the same direction (very slightly more westerly) at 500 mb.

Still plenty of time for this to change.

This is called "Trampled Underfoot"
Hey Pat, you started to Laissez Les Bon Temps Rouler yet? Mr. Lincoln gets a heck of a birthday bash this year!
Looks like the cold air is here to stay for many into February:



We haven't gotten above 20F here in the past two days, today's high was 18 while yesterday's was 14. Wind chills tonight will be 10-15 below zero. Brrrr...
Quoting dabirds:
Hey Pat, you started to Laissez Les Bon Temps Rouler yet? Mr. Lincoln gets a heck of a birthday bash this year!


Indeed, the Superdome is all dressed up for Super Bowl Sunday, Mardi Gras is rolling..and well, theres not a Hotel Room available for 200 Miles East, West, nor North.






Mardi Gras 2013 Schedule
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like the cold air is here to stay for many into February:



We haven't gotten above 20F here in the past two days, today's high was 18 while yesterday's was 14. Wind chills tonight will be 10-15 below zero. Brrrr...


Aw man, why does that bulls-eye have to be right on the Great Lakes, AGAIN!?!

I've had enough single digit high temps for one Winter...
Well, just had a special weather statement pop up on WU top, my county on NE edge. Says very light sleet or freezing rain after midnight, so should be safe coming back from the dart league match on the other side of the county tonight. You all to our south be careful if you have to drive in it, hope everyone's power stays on too!
Well, due to icy weather, schools in Raleigh are shutting down early :) Finally, we get something out of this winter!
Quoting Patrap:


Indeed, the Superdome is all dressed up for Super Bowl Sunday, Mardi Gras is rolling..and well, theres not a Hotel Room available for 200 Miles East, West, nor North.






Mardi Gras 2013 Schedule
Soulard's getting ready too. Don't expect a huge Pet Parade, being on Super Bowl Day will knock it back this year, I'm sure.

Quoting Slamguitar:


Aw man, why does that bulls-eye have to be right on the Great Lakes, AGAIN!?!

I've had enough single digit high temps for one Winter...

I rather have cold air so there is no p-type issues. This weekend into early next week will feature accumulating snow, then a wintry mix changing to all rain, and finally changing back over to snow.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I rather have cold air so there is no p-type issues. This weekend into early next week will feature accumulating snow, then a wintry mix changing to all rain, and finally changing back over to snow.


I'd rather be in the upper 20's or lower 30's is what I'm saying. The cold is wearing me down walking all over campus...
Quoting Slamguitar:
Can anyone tell me what's wrong with this??



I think closer to stupid versus lying.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Significant model failure by the global models to predict this cut off low subtropical rain event over the Southern California region. Models were predicting any where from 0 - 0.5 inches (GFS and CMC and near zero, NAM, NOGAPS and ECMWF higher) over the coastal Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles area for the 0z Thurs to 0z Friday period. So far today (as of 19z Thurs) rainfall totals for Santa Barbara are running around 1- 1.3 inches. Totals along coastal Ventura County are around one inch and totals in the Los Angeles basin are around 3/4 to 1 inch.

I'll have more on this later today once the rainfall totals come in for the 0z 1/24 to 0z 1/25 period (which ends in 4 hrs).



Geez that's like half of the normal yearly rainfall in that are(with sarcasm of course).
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looks like the cold air is here to stay for many into February:



We haven't gotten above 20F here in the past two days, today's high was 18 while yesterday's was 14. Wind chills tonight will be 10-15 below zero. Brrrr...



Looks like Florida might finally get into the act. I've had to scrape ice off my window before school here in Tallahassee the last couple mornings and it's only been slightly below average here and there. I'd like to see what an extended period of well below normal temps is like in this area compared to a winter cold outbreak in the Tampa Bay area.
Quoting Slamguitar:


I'd rather be in the upper 20's or lower 30's is what I'm saying. The cold is wearing me down walking all over campus...

Strangely, I kinda like this really cold weather. I see what you're saying though.



300-Million-Year-Old Tooth Wheel Found In Russian Coal: Scientists

By Lee Speigel
Posted: 01/23/2013 3:17 pm EST


The Earth was so young 300 million years ago, the first land animals had yet to evolve into dinosaurs, most scientists believe.

If that's the case, how do you explain the discovery in Russia of a piece of a gear shift -- a common machine part -- embedded into a hunk of 300-million-year-old coal. Has this artifact been correctly identified? And if so, who could have made this thing? And for what purpose?

According to Komsomolskaya Pravda, a resident of Vladivostok -- near the borders of China and North Korea -- named Dmitry, recently noticed something odd about a hunk of coal he had obtained to heat his home during the winter.

A metallic-looking rail or rod was pressed into the coal, prompting Dmitry to contact biologist Valery Brier, in the seaside Primorye region.

Initial examination of the strange object led researchers to assert it looked "very much like a toothed metal rail, created artificially. It was like parts [that] are often used in microscopes, various technical and electronic devices," wrote Komsomolskaya Pravda.

The piece of coal in question originated from the Chernogorodskiy mines of the Khakasis region. The Voice of Russia, an international Russian broadcasting service, reported that since the coal deposits in this region of the country can be dated to 300 million years ago, experts are suggesting that the odd piece of metal found in the coal must be that old as well.

The Voice of Russia also said, "When geologists broke the piece of coal in which the metal object was pressed into and spot-treated it with special chemical agents, it turned out the the metal detail was unusually light and soft. ... [It] was found to be composed of 98 percent aluminum and 2 percent magnesium," which led to the implication that the metallic object was created artificially.
Another important property of the object that intrigued the researchers was "its distinctive shape, which was reminiscent of a modern tooth-wheel," according to The Voice of Russia. "It is hard to imagine that an object could take [the] regular shape of a tooth-wheel with six identical 'teeth' naturally."

But who created this seemingly metallic piece 300 million years ago, presumably when there were no humans walking the Earth? Even Komsomolskaya Pravda implied that this piece of metal has an alien origin.

One scientist, geologist Sharon Hill, who goes by the name "idoubtit," says this entire story is "laughable." Writing in Doubtful News.com, Hill insists "there are so many red flags, you should discard it entirely."

Among the red flags Hill wonders about are, "Why is it not published in a journal? We have to accept the man's word for it, where he found it and how he discovered it? Why speculate on the alien origin of aluminum?"

Hill adds that "It's not part of a gear. It's a natural crystal formation I'd say. ... But as following the typical template for these stories, the extreme speculative and dramatic interpretation is hyped over any consideration of an actual explanation. That's sad because it could be cool."

The Voice of Russia says that Russian scientists won't jump to conclusions and will run more tests on the metal object.


Frost on windows is not winter precip, its frost.

: )
Quoting wxchaser97:

Strangely, I kinda like this really cold weather. I see what you're saying though.


I DO like the fact that I can safely play pond hockey this year!

Didn't even have a chance at that last Winter, lol.
Quoting wxmod:


Anyone who has searched on Google knows how erroneous your figure is.
I searched google scholar this way: "weather modification"+"ship tracks" and added to return only results after 2009 and came up wit 12 results, most of which are irrelevant. That's pretty slim pickins. Sorry.
Please be one of the people who helps out with clarity on this issue by reading the scholarly articles and quoting them. Search engine result numbers are not relevant or helpful.


Fair enough. During The Monterey Area Ship Track Experiment, Philip A. Durkee et al concluded that the pattern of ship tracks was "determined by the combination of cloud cover and shipping traffic distributions" and that "The pattern...is clearly dominated by great circle routes between eastern Asia ports and San Francisco, Los Angeles, and the Panama Canal" and also that "Some shipping activity along the California coast is also apparent" in the ship tracks they mapped.

In other words, a bunch of scientists with a bunch of high-tech instruments observed the formation of ship tracks in real time (they even created a few tracks themselves with borrowed ships) and concluded that the patterns of ship tracks matched known shipping patterns.

Moreover, in the paper "Emissions from Ships with respect to Their Effects on Clouds," Hobbs et al (2000) conclude that "for the same ambient conditions, ships burning low-grade fuels (such as marine fuel oil) are more likely to produce ship tracks than ships burning higher-grade distillate fuels, with engine type playing a secondary role in this respect."

In other words, pretty much any ship burning low-grade marine fuel oil is capable of producing a ship track under the right atmospheric conditions.

I present the above as evidence to support my hypothesis that ship tracks are formed by normal ships and are the result of normal ship traffic.

So I ask again - what evidence do you have to support your hypothesis that the ship tracks off the US Pacific Coast are part of an active weather modification program and not simply the result of normal ship traffic?
A big warm up is expected to occur across much of the central and eastern United States as we head through the early-middle portions of next week (coinciding with a potential multi-day severe weather "outbreak" [though Tuesday looks like the only significant one] around the same time). The GFS shows temperature anomalies in excess of 15 degrees above normal across portions of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana...



...don't freak out though; a quick return to below average temperatures is expected...



...and it's generally expected to last throughout the period.

Quoting Jedkins01:



Looks like Florida might finally get into the act. I've had to scrape ice off my window before school here in Tallahassee the last couple mornings and it's only been slightly below average here and there. I'd like to see what an extended period of well below normal temps is like in this area compared to a winter cold outbreak in the Tampa Bay area.


Well, it was -2F in Tallahassee on February 11, 1899, for starters.

In January of 1985, the low temperature during that epic freeze event was either 5F or 6F in Tally, I cannot remember which off the top of my head.

Note that the 19th century reading was taken in what is now downtown Tallahassee, not the airport where the official readings are taken today. This is significant because downtown Tallahassee is hilly and most areas there are not the coldest parts of the region today, whereas the airport, well south of town is in what is considered to be a cold pocket. It is an area where readings tend to get colder than surrounding territory due to the pooling effect of cold air settling into valleys or low-lying areas that are surrounded by higher elevations.
I haven't felt cold like this since I first met my in-laws.
Expect the tropics to wind down after Garry. MJO is leaving the area.


Good Evening Sensei....
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Evening Sensei....


Good Evening, Grasshopper. We just got back from Switzerland and this is where we are now. It is brutal.

Link
Quoting Grothar:
I haven't felt cold like this since I first met my in-laws.
The lowest natural temperature ever recorded at the surface of the Earth was −89.2 °C (−128.6 °F; 184.0 K) at the Soviet Vostok Station in Antarctica, on July 21, 1983. I do not believe many in-laws can match this cold...I could be wrong..:)
Quoting Grothar:


Good Evening, Grasshopper. We just got back from Switzerland and this is where we are now. It is brutal.

Link


Yes I see. That isn't a proper warm place to be. I suggest Florida.
Quoting Grothar:


Good Evening, Grasshopper. We just got back from Switzerland and this is where we are now. It is brutal.

Link
I am Cain....I seek water...
Quoting Patrap:
Frost on windows is not winter precip, its frost.

: )


If you're referring to post 164 I didn't see any reference to precip - only the fact Jedkins would like to see prolonged cold weather in Tallahassee.
Quoting hydrus:
The lowest natural temperature ever recorded at the surface of the Earth was −89.2 °C (−128.6 °F; 184.0 K) at the Soviet Vostok Station in Antarctica, on July 21, 1983. I do not believe many in-laws can match this cold...I could be wrong..:)


You obviously have never met Swedes with an attitude. :)
Quoting PedleyCA:


Yes I see. That isn't a proper warm place to be. I suggest Florida.


We won't be back until next week. We are also expecting snow tomorrow.
Quoting wxmod:


You don't know who I am or what I know.
you must think i'm insulting your intelligence.. i'm merely responding to the insult you hurl at the community of atmospheric scientists and organizations who supply you with the very tool you use to make your sweeping assumptions...
for example:
"It seems noone wants to research the issue. (why? because they are wx mod for the benefit of south west desert water users)"
-you are claiming conspiracy.. that active decisions by man are being taken to produce this 'claimed result', which is being 'hidden' from the public.
"Ship trails in the NE Pacific are common. Other occurrences are rare, though, as you point out, there are a few"
-the visibility of ship trails are based on the conditions of the atmosphere in the locality of the shipping. i.e., Only under the Right conditions will these appear and persist, but there are Thousands of localities worldwide where the trails do not appear above polluting ships BECAUSE the conditions of the atmosphere do not allow it... THAT is the 'Weather 101' fact you flagrantly ignore.
"Once again, the government should be studying this, and there is no evidence suggesting that obvious studies are taking place. The lack of information on this topic is astounding, and has to construed as evidence."
-another attack of fallacy, specifically the Appeal to Ignorance fallacy. it also happens to be false, and you fail to recognize this due to the following..
"Anyone who has searched on Google knows how erroneous your figure is.
I searched google scholar this way: "weather modification"+"ship tracks" and added to return only results after 2009 and came up wit 12 results, most of which are irrelevant. That's pretty slim pickins. Sorry."
-this is the clearest display of your assumption that there is a conspiracy (already proven you believe there is conspiracy by your own text).. you would have to be correct before researching for you to be correct by this claim. it is another fallacy to assume the result before research.. this shows you begin with the idea that there is weather modification being performed with intention, and then try to prove being right by showing that the evidence isn't there.. as if hidden. however, should you research Correctly, i.e. Not assuming results prior to research, then you will come to the Very Same understanding of NASA, and countless other atmospheric scientist and agencies which Have made abundantly available, the research that you deny because it doesn't match your assumption.
by the very statement '"weather modification"+"ship tracks" and added to return only results after 2009 and came up wit 12 results' -here you are cherry picking your biased notion.

it is well documented that ship trails emit pollution, and it is distinguishable in every way, the difference between particulate emissions as soot pollution vs cloud formation by result of exhaust providing condensation nuclei (only condensing under specific atmospheric conditions).
what have i left out from Today...?
oh yeah, your attempt to paint me as ignorant because there aren't textbooks on it?? that is hilarious, and it speaks to a failure to show you understand Exactly Why the visible trails exist.
want to know why i waste all this blog space to take on your comments? it is because the presence of these ship trails, contrails, and global pollution are Serious Issues! how on Earth do we as a public address this very real issue if we're fighting ghosts? drop the conspiracy act, learn about the air masses that create each different type of visual data one encounters when viewing MODIS imagery, and keep posting concerning images.. don't stop that.. but this is not weather modification, it is weather alteration. what we do to it is done as a result of our business, it is not our business being done to produce a result.

if for instance you indicated that ship trails existing in the NE Pacific were present because of high pressure stability in a maritime air mass, you would be correct, and you would recognize that this geography and the latitudinal positioning bear a uniqueness, matched only in a small percentage of ocean, and when correlated to shipping practices solely defined by economic design distributed by global markets, a clearer explanation for all observation would come to light. dig?
then and only then, from this common ground of understanding, can any effective dialogue take place.. you'll otherwise be branded conspiracy theorist, and not by me believe that, and your important contribution at least on this blog, will be otherwise ignored or overlooked.
I wish I could stay on a little longer. I've really missed you guys (well most you). Have a good night. And don't forget to lift up your snuggies when you're walking. They can be dangerous.
Climate Outlook for 2013 with Jeff Masters and Others

Quoting Grothar:


You obviously have never met Swedes with an attitude. :)
Oh yes I have
Quoting Grothar:


You obviously have never met Swedes with an attitude. :)
lol.. those Swedes... they do love el Presidente though!
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Well, it was -2F in Tallahassee on February 11, 1899, for starters.

In January of 1985, the low temperature during that epic freeze event was either 5F or 6F in Tally, I cannot remember which off the top of my head.

Note that the 19th century reading was taken in what is now downtown Tallahassee, not the airport where the official readings are taken today. This is significant because downtown Tallahassee is hilly and most areas there are not the coldest parts of the region today, whereas the airport, well south of town is in what is considered to be a cold pocket. It is an area where readings tend to get colder than surrounding territory due to the pooling effect of cold air settling into valleys or low-lying areas that are surrounded by higher elevations.



The fact that Tallahassee holds the record for the coldest temp in Florida is part of the reason I Mentioned what I did! Also, I don't live right in the city, I live a couple miles southeast of the city, and it's a bit lower ground here. The major shifts in elevation is part of what I love about this region. It feels almost mountainous even though the highest areas are only 300 to 400 ft elevation at the very best.

It makes you wonder what the temperature was at the now Tallahassee regional airport back then during that -2 reading. If it was a radiational cooling event temps could have been 5 degrees colder.




Quoting Patrap:



300-Million-Year-Old Tooth Wheel Found In Russian Coal: Scientists

By Lee Speigel
Posted: 01/23/2013 3:17 pm EST


The Earth was so young 300 million years ago, the first land animals had yet to evolve into dinosaurs, most scientists believe.

If that's the case, how do you explain the discovery in Russia of a piece of a gear shift -- a common machine part -- embedded into a hunk of 300-million-year-old coal. Has this artifact been correctly identified? And if so, who could have made this thing? And for what purpose?

According to Komsomolskaya Pravda, a resident of Vladivostok -- near the borders of China and North Korea -- named Dmitry, recently noticed something odd about a hunk of coal he had obtained to heat his home during the winter.

A metallic-looking rail or rod was pressed into the coal, prompting Dmitry to contact biologist Valery Brier, in the seaside Primorye region.

Initial examination of the strange object led researchers to assert it looked "very much like a toothed metal rail, created artificially. It was like parts [that] are often used in microscopes, various technical and electronic devices," wrote Komsomolskaya Pravda.

The piece of coal in question originated from the Chernogorodskiy mines of the Khakasis region. The Voice of Russia, an international Russian broadcasting service, reported that since the coal deposits in this region of the country can be dated to 300 million years ago, experts are suggesting that the odd piece of metal found in the coal must be that old as well.

The Voice of Russia also said, "When geologists broke the piece of coal in which the metal object was pressed into and spot-treated it with special chemical agents, it turned out the the metal detail was unusually light and soft. ... [It] was found to be composed of 98 percent aluminum and 2 percent magnesium," which led to the implication that the metallic object was created artificially.
Another important property of the object that intrigued the researchers was "its distinctive shape, which was reminiscent of a modern tooth-wheel," according to The Voice of Russia. "It is hard to imagine that an object could take [the] regular shape of a tooth-wheel with six identical 'teeth' naturally."

But who created this seemingly metallic piece 300 million years ago, presumably when there were no humans walking the Earth? Even Komsomolskaya Pravda implied that this piece of metal has an alien origin.

One scientist, geologist Sharon Hill, who goes by the name "idoubtit," says this entire story is "laughable." Writing in Doubtful News.com, Hill insists "there are so many red flags, you should discard it entirely."

Among the red flags Hill wonders about are, "Why is it not published in a journal? We have to accept the man's word for it, where he found it and how he discovered it? Why speculate on the alien origin of aluminum?"

Hill adds that "It's not part of a gear. It's a natural crystal formation I'd say. ... But as following the typical template for these stories, the extreme speculative and dramatic interpretation is hyped over any consideration of an actual explanation. That's sad because it could be cool."

The Voice of Russia says that Russian scientists won't jump to conclusions and will run more tests on the metal object.





lol

Well we have a couple easy solutions to this answer, either the dating is wrong, or its just a natural formation taking on an interesting shape which isn't uncommon. It's no different a phenomenon than seeing the devil in a tornado or human faces in rocks or Mary on a piece of toast.

The human brain is designed to form and recognize patterns, hence why we see images in things.


Quoting hydrus:
I am Cain....I seek water...
Yes Master Po
Quoting Grothar:


Good Evening, Grasshopper. We just got back from Switzerland and this is where we are now. It is brutal.

Link
"You have failed no one, Grasshopper,only your own ambition"
Quoting Grothar:


Good Evening, Grasshopper. We just got back from Switzerland and this is where we are now. It is brutal.

Link

See you got out of Switzerland before the winter cyclone season starts. You must have flown over our village, you could have waved.
Speaking of "Brutal," its about -24/C in Stockholm tonight, so, its proper Glug weather with a bit of murk rost brigg cooffee thrown in.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 7:00 PM EST Thursday 24 January 2013
Condition: Mainly Clear
Pressure: 30.6 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 8.8°F
Dewpoint: -4.9°F
Humidity: 53 %
Wind: WNW 9 mph
Wind Chill: -5


WOCN11 CWTO 242303
Special weather statement
Issued by Environment Canada
At 6:03 PM EST Thursday 24 January 2013.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Pickering - Oshawa - Southern Durham Region
=new= Cobourg - Colborne - Western Northumberland County.

Some snow Friday with the added risk of a Lake Ontario snow
Squall.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
An Alberta clipper tracking southeastwards towards the Lower Great
Lakes will give a fairly minor snowfall to much of Southern Ontario
on Friday. However, light southeast winds ahead of the low will
develop during the day and are expected to help steer a fairly strong
Lake Ontario snow squall towards the north shore of Lake Ontario.
This squall will most likely intensify over the lake in the morning
then slowly meander towards the shoreline from near Toronto eastwards
to Cobourg by afternoon. Some locales along this corridor may be
impacted with one or two periods of heavier snow if this squall
brushes the area. It may linger into the evening as well.

Snowfall totals may be in the 5 to locally 10 cm range from the
combination of the Alberta clipper and snow squall. But localized
amounts may surpass this. A snow squall warning is not anticipated
At this time but cannot be ruled out.

Winds are expected to be light thus blowing snow would not be an
issue with the squall if it materializes. However, visibilities may
be very low with a few centimetres of accumulation in a short time.
Commuters and travellers should be prepared for potentially hazardous
conditions should the snow squall develop.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

END/OSPC


Quoting Patrap:
This is called "Trampled Underfoot"
best band of all times

...except for maybe the Beatles, but they aren't really in the same category.
Quoting Jedkins01:



The fact that Tallahassee holds the record for the coldest temp in Florida is part of the reason I Mentioned what I did! Also, I don't live right in the city, I live a couple miles southeast of the city, and it's a bit lower ground here. The major shifts in elevation is part of what I love about this region. It feels almost mountainous even though the highest areas are only 300 to 400 ft elevation at the very best.

It makes you wonder what the temperature was at the now Tallahassee regional airport back then during that -2 reading. If it was a radiational cooling event temps could have been 5 degrees colder.






Yes, that is a very good point. And that is why I mentioned that the reading in 1899 was in the city (such as it was, back then) as opposed to the airport area. Indeed it would likely have been colder there.

Also, that 1899 event included at least a couple of inches of snow cover. This is not surprising when you think of it because a ground cover of snow will tend to lower the minimum readings even further, keeping the warmer ground underneath the snow out of the equation.

The February 1899 event included a widespread snowfall across much of northern and central Florida but because weather record keeping in this region was very spotty at best back then, no one really knows what the snow totals were. There have been anecdotal stories however which suggest that heavy snow bands of "Gulf effect" snow formed along the central West Coast of Florida in that event. But again, there are no reliable records to confirm this.

Bear in mind that Florida had a total population of less than 500,000 people back at that time and about 80-90% of those lived in the Panhandle. The Florida peninsula was mostly an uninhabited wilderness back then, especially south of Gainesville.
Quoting Patrap:
new Clif High woo-jan 23rd challenges,armed revolt,discipline


www.halfpasthuman.com


Have they ever actually been right about anything?

I heard them a couple times on the radio ... never seems to really pan out that I recall.

Interesting though that they are offering to deal in bitcoin as well as the usual methods.
Today marks ten years since the infamous ocean-effect snow event in Florida.

Quoting TomTaylor:
best band of all times

...except for maybe the Beatles, but they aren't really in the same category.
I agree.....BUT!... Jimmy Page gets my vote for best guitar ever..
Quoting hydrus:
The lowest natural temperature ever recorded at the surface of the Earth was %u221289.2 C (%u2212128.6 F; 184.0 K) at the Soviet Vostok Station in Antarctica, on July 21, 1983. I do not believe many in-laws can match this cold...I could be wrong..:)


Wow! That seems pretty cold!

On a lark, I looked up CO2 and found this:

CO2, otherwise known as carbon dioxide, freezes at negative 109.3 degrees F. When it is frozen solid, carbon dioxide is called dry ice because it sublimes directly into a gas without melting to a liquid first. Dry ice has a lot of uses besides the obvious one of keeping food very cold for extended periods of time.

If that is correct then sometimes there is frozen CO2 falling on earth....? I had never heard that before. Presumably, air that cold has no water in it ... so maybe there is CO2 snow here...? What's it like...? Color? Hexagonal...? etc.

Does it have a special name...? Like "Dry Snow"?

Makes me want to pull out my Calvin n Hobbes books!
200. etxwx

Photo credit: Reuters/Ramiundo Pacco
Deforestation appears to rise again in Brazil's Amazon
By Paulo Prada RIO DE JANEIRO | Thu Jan 24, 2013
Excerpt: (Reuters) - After years of gains against destruction of the Amazon rainforest, Brazil appears to be suffering from an increase in deforestation as farmers, loggers, miners and builders move into previously untouched woodland, according to data compiled by the government and independent researchers.
Imazon, a Brazilian research institute that tracks deforestation through satellite imagery, said in a recent report that destruction in the world's largest rainforest climbed for the fourth consecutive month in December.

In the last five months of 2012, Imazon detected clearings of 497 square miles (1,288 square km) of woodland - a Los Angeles-size total that is more than twice as big as the combined areas detected in the last five months of 2011.
Preliminary data from Brazil's space agency, which produces its own monthly estimates, also suggests an increase in deforestation between August and October, the last month for which its figures have been released.

Researchers and government officials say more data is needed to confirm that a full-fledged reversal is under way after what had been a sustained reduction in deforestation in recent years. Among other variables, clouds from the ongoing rainy season hinder definitive imagery. Additional data could also clarify whether new gaps in the rainforest canopy are the result of deliberate clearcutting and fires or of natural thinning.


Complete article here.


Quoting Patrap:



300-Million-Year-Old Tooth Wheel Found In Russian Coal: Scientists

By Lee Speigel
Posted: 01/23/2013 3:17 pm EST


The Earth was so young 300 million years ago, the first land animals had yet to evolve into dinosaurs, most scientists believe.

If that's the case, how do you explain the discovery in Russia of a piece of a gear shift -- a common machine part -- embedded into a hunk of 300-million-year-old coal. Has this artifact been correctly identified? And if so, who could have made this thing? And for what purpose?

According to Komsomolskaya Pravda, a resident of Vladivostok -- near the borders of China and North Korea -- named Dmitry, recently noticed something odd about a hunk of coal he had obtained to heat his home during the winter.

A metallic-looking rail or rod was pressed into the coal, prompting Dmitry to contact biologist Valery Brier, in the seaside Primorye region.

Initial examination of the strange object led researchers to assert it looked "very much like a toothed metal rail, created artificially. It was like parts [that] are often used in microscopes, various technical and electronic devices," wrote Komsomolskaya Pravda.

The piece of coal in question originated from the Chernogorodskiy mines of the Khakasis region. The Voice of Russia, an international Russian broadcasting service, reported that since the coal deposits in this region of the country can be dated to 300 million years ago, experts are suggesting that the odd piece of metal found in the coal must be that old as well.

The Voice of Russia also said, "When geologists broke the piece of coal in which the metal object was pressed into and spot-treated it with special chemical agents, it turned out the the metal detail was unusually light and soft. ... [It] was found to be composed of 98 percent aluminum and 2 percent magnesium," which led to the implication that the metallic object was created artificially.
Another important property of the object that intrigued the researchers was "its distinctive shape, which was reminiscent of a modern tooth-wheel," according to The Voice of Russia. "It is hard to imagine that an object could take [the] regular shape of a tooth-wheel with six identical 'teeth' naturally."

But who created this seemingly metallic piece 300 million years ago, presumably when there were no humans walking the Earth? Even Komsomolskaya Pravda implied that this piece of metal has an alien origin.

One scientist, geologist Sharon Hill, who goes by the name "idoubtit," says this entire story is "laughable." Writing in Doubtful News.com, Hill insists "there are so many red flags, you should discard it entirely."

Among the red flags Hill wonders about are, "Why is it not published in a journal? We have to accept the man's word for it, where he found it and how he discovered it? Why speculate on the alien origin of aluminum?"

Hill adds that "It's not part of a gear. It's a natural crystal formation I'd say. ... But as following the typical template for these stories, the extreme speculative and dramatic interpretation is hyped over any consideration of an actual explanation. That's sad because it could be cool."

The Voice of Russia says that Russian scientists won't jump to conclusions and will run more tests on the metal object.




At least we know it didn't come from the Xel Naga, the Protoss, or the Zerg...they wouldn't need such primitive technology.
Now this is guitar.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUg77RwgOfg
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Now this is guitar.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUg77RwgOfg
Ooops, Help me Pedley
Quoting PedleyCA:
funk 49
"YES" Thanks Ped
Quoting PedleyCA:
Mountain - Mississippi Queen
I remember... One of my favorites.... Going Home...Ten years after.
208. etxwx

Fountain in Bryant Park New York, Jan 24, 2013
Photo credit: Reuters/Eduardo Munoz

Cold snap torments those still without heat after Sandy
By Jonathan Allen NEW YORK | Thu Jan 24, 2013
Excerpt: (Reuters) - Arctic air gripped parts of the United States on Thursday, making life miserable for people still without heat months after superstorm Sandy and turning steam from a nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania into a snowfall substantial enough to shovel.

In Brooklyn, New York, where about 200 homes slammed by Sandy in October remained without heat, "It's just getting colder and colder," said Doreen Greenwood-Garson, chief of the Gerritsen Beach Fire Department.

Nightly, the volunteer department has loaded its ambulance with donated space heaters and free hot meals and delivered them to shut-ins, said Greenwood-Garson, a real estate broker. Already it has given away a total of 60 space heaters and each night about 50 meals, she said.

In Pennsylvania, some residents already have been shoveling, after steam from cooling stacks of a nuclear power plant in Shippingport, 30 miles northwest of Pittsburgh near the Ohio border, met the cold snap on Tuesday.

As a result, snow fell over area homes for about six hours, said Fred McMullen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. Ground-level cold air met the stacks' warm moist air, forming a cloud that produced snowflakes, he said.

"Don't eat glowing snow!" Philadelphia Daily News reporter David Murphy jokingly wrote on Twitter.

Accuweather.com noted the Shippingport snow was neither fluorescent nor radioactive.


More here.
Quoting PedleyCA:
funk 49

I can't help but ask...what happened to the first 48 funks? Why the coverup?
Quoting Birthmark:

I can't help but ask...what happened to the first 48 funks? Why the coverup?


Too funky for the general public??

Still waiting for Funk 50...
Quoting Birthmark:

I can't help but ask...what happened to the first 48 funks? Why the coverup?


Not a CLUE
Quoting Slamguitar:


To funky for the general public??


The general public was drunk with the funk, that's why.

Winter Weather Advisory for me! Except the stuff will come too late to make an impact on me going to school.
Quoting PedleyCA:
funk 49


listened to that today, have it on my mp3, well, James Gang Rides Again and that is the first song.

Good evening everyone.

was in a 70's mode, listened to Tyranny and Mutation too.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Quicksilver Messenger Service - The Fool



ahh, one of the Frisco bands. JA, Tuna, Santana, Dead, Mama's and Papa's, New Riders... good ol' days
Quoting Grothar:


You obviously have never met Swedes with an attitude. :)
This is true, but Grandma claims there is some Swiss in our bloodline....She was very strict and could apply her discipline in a cold dominating manner...hereditary..?
Did everyone fall asleep, or just groovin.....hell yes....
WITH THAT ALL BEING SAID THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT STILL
CONCERN ME ABOUT THIS FORECAST.
1. WE HAVE VERY LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SHALLOW DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE. AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THIS LAYER...THIS LAYER COULD COOL FASTER
THAN FORECAST. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO LEAD TO A STRENGTHEN OF
THE OVERALL CAD. IF THIS IS THE CASE...MORE ICE COULD ACCUMULATE
THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW GA AND METRO AREA.

2. OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. QPF
VALUES SUGGESTS AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACROSS THE NE GA MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE THAT IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
AT THE 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE HAS A RATHER LONG FETCH ACROSS THE
COASTAL SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. WHILE ITS SOURCE IS FROM THE
GULF...THE FLOW COMES FROM THE EAST IN TEXAS. THIS MAY...LEAD TO
LESS MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO THE AREA THAN FORECAST. IF THIS IS THE
CASE THEN THE CURRENT ICE ACCUMULATION VALUES AND TOTAL QPF WOULD BE
OVERDONE.

I'm hoping we get more than expected
Quoting PedleyCA:
Did everyone fall asleep, or just groovin.....hell yes....



now you look here we cant be on all day this too keep you busy we all have other things too do in life other this this old blog many or likey still at work or out doing other things with there kids or walking the dog or some in
Quoting Patrap:



300-Million-Year-Old Tooth Wheel Found In Russian Coal: Scientists

By Lee Speigel
Posted: 01/23/2013 3:17 pm EST


The Earth was so young 300 million years ago, the first land animals had yet to evolve into dinosaurs, most scientists believe.

If that's the case, how do you explain the discovery in Russia of a piece of a gear shift -- a common machine part -- embedded into a hunk of 300-million-year-old coal. Has this artifact been correctly identified? And if so, who could have made this thing? And for what purpose?

According to Komsomolskaya Pravda, a resident of Vladivostok -- near the borders of China and North Korea -- named Dmitry, recently noticed something odd about a hunk of coal he had obtained to heat his home during the winter.

A metallic-looking rail or rod was pressed into the coal, prompting Dmitry to contact biologist Valery Brier, in the seaside Primorye region.

Initial examination of the strange object led researchers to assert it looked "very much like a toothed metal rail, created artificially. It was like parts [that] are often used in microscopes, various technical and electronic devices," wrote Komsomolskaya Pravda.

The piece of coal in question originated from the Chernogorodskiy mines of the Khakasis region. The Voice of Russia, an international Russian broadcasting service, reported that since the coal deposits in this region of the country can be dated to 300 million years ago, experts are suggesting that the odd piece of metal found in the coal must be that old as well.

The Voice of Russia also said, "When geologists broke the piece of coal in which the metal object was pressed into and spot-treated it with special chemical agents, it turned out the the metal detail was unusually light and soft. ... [It] was found to be composed of 98 percent aluminum and 2 percent magnesium," which led to the implication that the metallic object was created artificially.
Another important property of the object that intrigued the researchers was "its distinctive shape, which was reminiscent of a modern tooth-wheel," according to The Voice of Russia. "It is hard to imagine that an object could take [the] regular shape of a tooth-wheel with six identical 'teeth' naturally."

But who created this seemingly metallic piece 300 million years ago, presumably when there were no humans walking the Earth? Even Komsomolskaya Pravda implied that this piece of metal has an alien origin.

One scientist, geologist Sharon Hill, who goes by the name "idoubtit," says this entire story is "laughable." Writing in Doubtful News.com, Hill insists "there are so many red flags, you should discard it entirely."

Among the red flags Hill wonders about are, "Why is it not published in a journal? We have to accept the man's word for it, where he found it and how he discovered it? Why speculate on the alien origin of aluminum?"

Hill adds that "It's not part of a gear. It's a natural crystal formation I'd say. ... But as following the typical template for these stories, the extreme speculative and dramatic interpretation is hyped over any consideration of an actual explanation. That's sad because it could be cool."

The Voice of Russia says that Russian scientists won't jump to conclusions and will run more tests on the metal object.


If it's not a plain old hoax, it's probably a piece broken off from some mining equipment.

Just because it was mashed into a lump of coal, doesn't mean it was in there since the coal was formed.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Did everyone fall asleep, or just groovin.....hell yes....
Groovin is good..Ran into this surfing the web. One of my favorites..Link
Quoting Slamguitar:


Too funky for the general public??

Still waiting for Funk 50...


Be Careful What You ask for.

Funk 50
Quoting PedleyCA:


Be Careful What You ask for.

Funk 50
Check out Blue on Black...Link
Quoting PedleyCA:
Did everyone fall asleep, or just groovin.....hell yes....

I'm "studying" for my 2 finals tomorrow...
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm "studying" for my 2 finals tomorrow...
I hope you ace your finals...I have had a few tough ones.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm "studying" for my 2 finals tomorrow...


ahh, I wondered where tonights can't see China for the smog picture. I spoke at a Rotary luncheon today and related how bad their smog is, and that you had caused me to pay attention to it. You were; "there's this guy at Wunderground..." :)
230. wxmod
Quoting Minnemike:
you must think i'm insulting your intelligence.. i'm merely responding to the insult you hurl at the community of atmospheric scientists and organizations who supply you with the very tool you use to make your sweeping assumptions...
for example:
"It seems noone wants to research the issue. (why? because they are wx mod for the benefit of south west desert water users)"
-you are claiming conspiracy.. that active decisions by man are being taken to produce this 'claimed result', which is being 'hidden' from the public.
"Ship trails in the NE Pacific are common. Other occurrences are rare, though, as you point out, there are a few"
-the visibility of ship trails are based on the conditions of the atmosphere in the locality of the shipping. i.e., Only under the Right conditions will these appear and persist, but there are Thousands of localities worldwide where the trails do not appear above polluting ships BECAUSE the conditions of the atmosphere do not allow it... THAT is the 'Weather 101' fact you flagrantly ignore.
"Once again, the government should be studying this, and there is no evidence suggesting that obvious studies are taking place. The lack of information on this topic is astounding, and has to construed as evidence."
-another attack of fallacy, specifically the Appeal to Ignorance fallacy. it also happens to be false, and you fail to recognize this due to the following..
"Anyone who has searched on Google knows how erroneous your figure is.
I searched google scholar this way: "weather modification"+"ship tracks" and added to return only results after 2009 and came up wit 12 results, most of which are irrelevant. That's pretty slim pickins. Sorry."
-this is the clearest display of your assumption that there is a conspiracy (already proven you believe there is conspiracy by your own text).. you would have to be correct before researching for you to be correct by this claim. it is another fallacy to assume the result before research.. this shows you begin with the idea that there is weather modification being performed with intention, and then try to prove being right by showing that the evidence isn't there.. as if hidden. however, should you research Correctly, i.e. Not assuming results prior to research, then you will come to the Very Same understanding of NASA, and countless other atmospheric scientist and agencies which Have made abundantly available, the research that you deny because it doesn't match your assumption.
by the very statement '"weather modification"+"ship tracks" and added to return only results after 2009 and came up wit 12 results' -here you are cherry picking your biased notion.

it is well documented that ship trails emit pollution, and it is distinguishable in every way, the difference between particulate emissions as soot pollution vs cloud formation by result of exhaust providing condensation nuclei (only condensing under specific atmospheric conditions).
what have i left out from Today...?
oh yeah, your attempt to paint me as ignorant because there aren't textbooks on it?? that is hilarious, and it speaks to a failure to show you understand Exactly Why the visible trails exist.
want to know why i waste all this blog space to take on your comments? it is because the presence of these ship trails, contrails, and global pollution are Serious Issues! how on Earth do we as a public address this very real issue if we're fighting ghosts? drop the conspiracy act, learn about the air masses that create each different type of visual data one encounters when viewing MODIS imagery, and keep posting concerning images.. don't stop that.. but this is not weather modification, it is weather alteration. what we do to it is done as a result of our business, it is not our business being done to produce a result.

if for instance you indicated that ship trails existing in the NE Pacific were present because of high pressure stability in a maritime air mass, you would be correct, and you would recognize that this geography and the latitudinal positioning bear a uniqueness, matched only in a small percentage of ocean, and when correlated to shipping practices solely defined by economic design distributed by global markets, a clearer explanation for all observation would come to light. dig?
then and only then, from this common ground of understanding, can any effective dialogue take place.. you'll otherwise be branded conspiracy theorist, and not by me believe that, and your important contribution at least on this blog, will be otherwise ignored or overlooked.


I appreciate the time you've taken to refute my theories. You have a fundamental understanding of the problem. I hope your friends will take note of your words "the presence of these ship trails, contrails, and global pollution are Serious Issues!"
That much we very much agree on. Can we then agree that shipping should not be taken lightly and ships fuel quality should be carefully regulated throughout the world? Until ship trails are no longer present, I will be here trying to make a war between continents that ignore the global ramifications of ship pollution. And I will play the blame game. Freedom of speech, you know!
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm "studying" for my 2 finals tomorrow...


Well, I decided not to make a blog post after all, it would be a bit big. <---Underestimation. It is already looking to be at least 3-4 pages of notebook paper as I write it up...I might do snippets. Maybe.

Good luck on those exams.
Quoting wxmod:


And I will play the blame game. Freedom of speech, you know!


The one thing I have to say is that "freedom of speech" does not protect you from everything. Libel and slander are not tolerated.

Besides, this is an international forum, what we say here is under discretion by the blog's owners, their rules employ more power than the freedom itself does.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm "studying" for my 2 finals tomorrow...


Good Luck with Those....
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I agree.....BUT!... Jimmy Page gets my vote for best guitar ever..
Hendrix has mine

Can't deny his genius on the guitar; he could truly play guitar like no one else before, or after. And as if playing it better than everybody else wasn't enough, he could also play guitar with his teeth, behind his back, and taught himself to play. Truly amazing.

235. wxmod
Quoting MrMixon:


Fair enough. During The Monterey Area Ship Track Experiment, Philip A. Durkee et al concluded that the pattern of ship tracks was "determined by the combination of cloud cover and shipping traffic distributions" and that "The pattern...is clearly dominated by great circle routes between eastern Asia ports and San Francisco, Los Angeles, and the Panama Canal" and also that "Some shipping activity along the California coast is also apparent" in the ship tracks they mapped.

In other words, a bunch of scientists with a bunch of high-tech instruments observed the formation of ship tracks in real time (they even created a few tracks themselves with borrowed ships) and concluded that the patterns of ship tracks matched known shipping patterns.

Moreover, in the paper "Emissions from Ships with respect to Their Effects on Clouds," Hobbs et al (2000) conclude that "for the same ambient conditions, ships burning low-grade fuels (such as marine fuel oil) are more likely to produce ship tracks than ships burning higher-grade distillate fuels, with engine type playing a secondary role in this respect."

In other words, pretty much any ship burning low-grade marine fuel oil is capable of producing a ship track under the right atmospheric conditions.

I present the above as evidence to support my hypothesis that ship tracks are formed by normal ships and are the result of normal ship traffic.

So I ask again - what evidence do you have to support your hypothesis that the ship tracks off the US Pacific Coast are part of an active weather modification program and not simply the result of normal ship traffic?


I really do listen to your comments. I'm not just blogging jibberish. It's so much a part of human nature to test new theories that some people construe as "beneficial" that it's impossible to believe that large scale weather modification experiments are not taking place. I mean, really, with an 80 year history of modifying weather, how can you seriously consider that every kind of experiment imaginable is NOT taking place. That's like you're telling me that we're not developing laser weapons even though there's a 4 petawatt laser in Lawrence Livermore Lab. What about that suitcase nuclear weapon I've been hearing about. That's probably a conspiracy theory too, right? Come on folks, wake now!
Thanks everyone, I think I will do well.

The NWS thinks that I will get around 2" of snow tomorrow.
Who remembers this?

Bloodrock
Quoting TomTaylor:
Hendrix has mine

Can't deny his genius on the guitar; he could truly play guitar like no one else before, or after. And as if playing it better than everybody else wasn't enough, he could also play guitar with his teeth, behind his back, and taught himself to play. Truly amazing.

Excellent. Thank you for posting..:)
Let's go back a little further

California Dreamin'
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
WITH THAT ALL BEING SAID THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT STILL
CONCERN ME ABOUT THIS FORECAST.
1. WE HAVE VERY LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SHALLOW DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE. AS
PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THIS LAYER...THIS LAYER COULD COOL FASTER
THAN FORECAST. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO LEAD TO A STRENGTHEN OF
THE OVERALL CAD. IF THIS IS THE CASE...MORE ICE COULD ACCUMULATE
THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW GA AND METRO AREA.

2. OVERALL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. QPF
VALUES SUGGESTS AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACROSS THE NE GA MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MOISTURE THAT IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA
AT THE 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE HAS A RATHER LONG FETCH ACROSS THE
COASTAL SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. WHILE ITS SOURCE IS FROM THE
GULF...THE FLOW COMES FROM THE EAST IN TEXAS. THIS MAY...LEAD TO
LESS MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO THE AREA THAN FORECAST. IF THIS IS THE
CASE THEN THE CURRENT ICE ACCUMULATION VALUES AND TOTAL QPF WOULD BE
OVERDONE.

I'm hoping we get more than expected
Dew points are still keeping low. The problem with this ice storm is that most people will blow it off as it starts around the 6-8 AM frame. This will be creating a very dangerous situation if schools, business, and other activities are not canceled.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Thanks everyone, I think I will do well.

The NWS thinks that I will get around 2" of snow tomorrow.

i've heard 2-4" for me from State College
Reaching even further back.

This Diamond Ring
Are you starting to feel old now?

Gloria
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Are you starting to feel old now?

Gloria
Gloria 1964..:)..Excerpt..Morrison said that he wrote "Gloria" while he performed with the Monarchs in Germany in the summer of 1963, at just about the time he turned eighteen years old. He started to perform it for audiences at the Maritime Hotel when he had returned to Belfast and joined up with the Gamblers to form the band Them. He would ad-lib lyrics as he performed, sometimes stretching the song to fifteen or twenty minutes in duration. After signing a contract with Dick Rowe and Decca, Them went to London, where they had a recording session at Decca Three Studios in West Hampstead on 5 July 1964, including "Gloria" as one of the seven songs recorded that day. Besides Morrison, present were Billy Harrison on guitar, Alan Henderson on bass, Ronnie Millings on drums and Patrick John McCauley on keyboards. Rowe brought in session musicians Arthur Greenslade on organ, Jimmy Page on guitar, and Bobby Graham on drums, since he considered the Them members too inexperienced. There remains some dispute about whether Millings and McCauley were miked up, but Alan Henderson contends that Them constituted the first rock group to use two drummers on a recording.Gloria was the B-side, when "Baby, Please Don't Go" was released in the U.K. on 6 November 1964. It was re-released in 1973 on the Deram label, but did not chart.
Stop it! Right now! You people are making me feel young.

Oh, wait I am...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
303 PM CST THU JAN 24 2013

...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EXPECTED IN THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AHEAD OF IT. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD A COLD AIR MASS
ALREADY IN PLACE...WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP
WILL BE WARMING. THIS WILL PRODUCE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND WILL GRADUALLY WARM
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND CHANGE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
RAIN. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD OF TIME WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FREEZING...WILL BE THE TIME WHEN ICE ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND
POWER LINES WILL BE LIKELY...AND GLAZING OF ROADS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EASTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY HAVE THE LONGEST PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AND...AS A RESULT... SOME OF THE LARGER
ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

TNZ005>008-023-025>028-059-061-062-075-250600-
/O.CON.KOHX.WW.Y.0005.130125T0600Z-130125T1800Z/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-HOUSTON-DICKS ON-CHEATHAM-
DAVIDSON-WILSON-WILLIAMSON-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-BE DFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...ERIN...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...LEWISBURG...MURFRE ESBORO...
SHELBYVILLE
303 PM CST THU JAN 24 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICING OF TREES...POWER LINES AND ROADS. ICE
ACCUMULATION UP TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.
Last one. A bit newer song.

Merrilee Rush - Angel of the Morning

I like this version better

Juice Newton

Hydrus, you must be as old as me. :-) I wonder how many remember Decca, or even Apple Records. How many would remember that The Beatles founded Apple Records?
252. etxwx
Old and obscure...plus the most intricate organ solo evah!

?
Quoting Astrometeor:
Stop it! Right now! You people are making me feel young.

Oh, wait I am...


LOL! Sorry, but what do we do when you consider this to be a old classic?

Don't Stop Believin'
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


LOL! Sorry, but what do we do when you consider this to be a old classic?

Don't Stop Believin'


Song is 1979 (year my kid was born) video is 2005 (link)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


LOL! Sorry, but what do we do when you consider this to be a old classic?

Don't Stop Believin'


No,no, continue, I like some of the classics themselves, though my bank stretches back into late 60s.

Stop torturing me with the rich music!
Temperature:
Mean Temperature 60 °F 55 °F
Max Temperature 67 °F 67 °F 86 °F (1946)
Min Temperature 53 °F 44 °F 22 °F (1937)

Forecast was 73 (not even close) But it was within the normal range today,
44/67
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


LOL! Sorry, but what do we do when you consider this to be a old classic?

Don't Stop Believin'
If I was driving and had to choose between listening to Journey or driving into a bridge abutment at high speed, I will choose the bridge abutment every time.

Edit: and hopefully die in case the stereo kept playing
259. etxwx
I think this was the first 45rpm I ever bought with my allowance.
Telestar
(keeping it weather related because it was by...you know...The Tornados.)
:)
Quoting nymore:
If I was driving and had to choose between listening to Journey or driving into a bridge abutment at high speed, I will choose the bridge abutment every time.


LOL! NO! Don't drive into the bridge abatement! .... Change the radio station! It's cheaper!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


LOL! NO! Don't drive into the bridge abatement! .... Change the radio station! It's cheaper!


To each there own music....

or is it To each their own music....
How many here knew that Kenny Rogers started off in Rock and Roll?

Kenny Rogers and the First Edition

How about ....

The Turtles - "So Happy Together"
Quoting AussieStorm:
Just a few news headlines going on today thanks to Ex-TC Oswald.

Brisbane and southeast face localised flooding over weekend with potential for 300mm to fall before Monday

Group missing as car swept away while search for fishermen continues


Flood watch for northern NSW


Aussie my man!!! How ya do?

I saw some great pictures you put up of the flooding and the impact of the storm
Hopefully everyone got though this safely.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Just a few news headlines going on today thanks to Ex-TC Oswald.

Brisbane and southeast face localised flooding over weekend with potential for 300mm to fall before Monday

Group missing as car swept away while search for fishermen continues


Flood watch for northern NSW


Auusie, it looks like you cannot escape the extreme weather over there. Here is hoping it all gets better soon.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
How many here knew that Kenny Rogers started off in Rock and Roll?

Kenny Rogers and the First Edition

How about ....

The Turtles - "So Happy Together"


Turtles, ah the good old days, (1967) was in High School (10th)
could this be overdone.... models are going nuts?

Here is William Shatner covering Pulp's Common People. Just plain hilarious. Also featuring Joe Jackson and Ben Folds Five. Figured we use a laugh here. Joe still has it and crushes this tune.


Joe Jackson & William Shatner - Common People by Pius35">
Quoting TomTaylor:
Hendrix has mine

Can't deny his genius on the guitar; he could truly play guitar like no one else before, or after. And as if playing it better than everybody else wasn't enough, he could also play guitar with his teeth, behind his back, and taught himself to play. Truly amazing.



I love both Jimmies, but my guitar vote goes to Link

Best lyrics of any song goes to Link

(he's stingy with youtube)

and to make this weather related Link

Hey, that's two weather links!

Happy snow day tomorrow for us on the east coast!
OK, PedleyCA. One TV series for another.

I Can Feel Your Heartbeat
Quoting PedleyCA:


Turtles, ah the good old days, (1967) was in High School (10th)
I was a feisty one year old that would not eat..:)
Quoting goosegirl1:


I love both Jimmies, but my guitar vote goes to Link

Best lyrics of any song goes to Link

(he's stingy with youtube)

and to make this weather related Link

Hey, that's two weather links!

Happy snow day tomorrow for us on the east coast!
Clapton is definitely one of the best. Doesn't have that same innovative and explosiveness that Hendrix can have though. But to each his own.


Weather related song...

275. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Who likes Animals?

The House of the Rising Sun


+1000 on the Animals, Eric Burden is still one of my all time favs....and don't forget the great garage band classics
The Kingsmen and the The Surfaris
Quoting Astrometeor:






I am on the plateau Mid TN..We are ready for tha ice.
Quoting nymore:
Here is William Shatner covering Pulp's Common People. Just plain hilarious. Also featuring Joe Jackson and Ben Folds Five. Figured we use a laugh here.


Joe Jackson & William Shatner - Common People by Pius35">


When you said Joe Jackson I thought it was the other one. What a strange Duo. Never assume.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Clapton is definitely one of the best. Doesn't have that same innovative and explosiveness that Hendrix can have though. But to each his own.


Weather related song...




I gave the nod to Eric, but my vote for best guitar performance is Link

I forgot to add, I saw Bob Dylan in concert this fall, and I don't feel so short anymore :) But he is awesome, even in his 70's.
279. etxwx
After this long trip down memory lane, it's time for my old lady nap. Hope everyone stays warm & dry, or cool & wet as desired.

I'll just leave ya with my favorite weather music:
Texas Flood

G'nite all.
When I graduated this was the song we played. Except we changed the word "celebrate" to "graduate".

Three Dog Night
Good night to all. I want to thank everyone for the great posts. It was one of the best nights. No negativity or arguing. What a pleasure and privilege to be here.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
When I graduated this was the song we played. Except we changed the word "celebrate" to "graduate".

Three Dog Night


It isn't cold enough her to be a "Three Dog Night."
Quoting hydrus:
Good night to all. I want to thank everyone for the great posts. It was one of the best nights. No negativity or arguing. What a pleasure and privilege to be here.


Wait! Don't leave yet. I had an argumentative song in the cue!
Quoting TomTaylor:
Clapton is definitely one of the best. Doesn't have that same innovative and explosiveness that Hendrix can have though. But to each his own.


Weather related song...



One of my favorite Led Zeppelin songs.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Wait! Don't leave yet. I had an argumentative song in the cue!
just had to stir it didnt cha.....:)
Not the best song ever but the best 2 minutes of radio ever. (IMO) Feel the raw power from the crowd.


Blur - Song 2 (Live Wembley Arena) by Rijsel92">

Here is the same song done well over a decade later than the first video. The crowd still goes wild. (WOO HOO) Hyde Park Olympic closing ceremony. As Rolling Stone magazine put it a blistering performance of the song.

">
Have a good night all. It is time to pour some mud.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
When I graduated this was the song we played. Except we changed the word "celebrate" to "graduate".

Three Dog Night


Your link is broken....
As promised, an argumentative song?

Meat Loaf
Quoting PedleyCA:


Your link is broken....


I fixed it! And here it is - Three Dog Night

I somehow suspect that nymore played a part in the broken link. LOL
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I fixed it! And here it is - Three Dog Night

I somehow suspect that nymore played a part in the broken link. LOL


I thought you weren't coming back so I had already fixed it. I even got the correct version. Didn't hurt it was one of the first ones. Easy Guess.
We Need More Rain - Let It Come During The Night - Makes Sleep Better

The Rain Song
Great job! If ever needed, I've got your back!
I think we closed the place


Should be an Hour or so before that is on top of us here, Round 2 of many.

Sleep Well - Stay Safe - Keep Warm - See You When the SUN comes back around.
I believe that we did. Strange. I never heard "Last call!". I enjoyed the trip down memory lane. A wonderful evening! Thank you, all!
The Gate Keeper Is still here. Must be coming to lock it..... :p
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
could this be overdone.... models are going nuts?

that storm deserves a name
Quoting PedleyCA:
The Gate Keeper Is still here. Must be coming to lock it..... :p


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
3:44 PM EST January 25 2013
==========================================

At 2:00 PM EST, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald was situated over land approximately 115 km northeast of Emerald and 170 km west northwest of Rockhampton and moving south southeast at about 7 knots. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald is expected to continue moving in a general southerly direction inland of the Queensland east coast
Ecuador had a landslide.
At least six people have been killed and 18 others injured in mudslides triggered by heavy rain in a gold-mining community in southern Ecuador, officials said. Azuay state governor Humberto Cordero said he does not yet have an estimate of how many people are missing after the disaster which happened before dawn today after six hours of torrential downpours. Mr Cordero told the Associated Press the mudslides have buried homes and blocked roads in the community of Pueblo Nuevo. He said the community can only be reached by helicopter. The AP reached a rescuer, Octavio Pena, who was approaching by road and unable to reach the town. Mr Pena said it was still raining.
ESPI has been on a slow trend up. -.99 for the last 30 day average.
SOI~ Like a mirror image..Average for last 30 days 1.0
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #23
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY, CATEGORY THREE (09F)
18:00 PM FST January 25 2013
======================================

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI AND MANUAE ISLANDS (Southern Cooks Island)

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR MAUKE, MITIARO, ATIU AND TAKUTEA (Southern Cooks Island)

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Southern Cooks Island)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Garry (970 hPa) located near 16.3S 160.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 13 knots. Position poor based on hourly goes infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports,

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization remains good past 24 hours. Deep convection persistent past 24 hours. System lies east of an upper eastwards moving shortwave trough in a high sheared environment. Outflow good to the east and south but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on low level circulation center embedded in white, giving DT=5.0 MET=4.5 and PT=4.5. Final Dvorak number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Global models move Garry southeastwards with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.8S 159.6W - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.7S 158.8W - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 24.4S 156.0W - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
Good Morning Folks!!and a Happy Friday to everyone!...the Blogs coffee is perked, grab a cup or two and enjoy!..have a wonderful day and for those getting snow today..stay safe driving ok...
Tampa Bay 7-day..warming trend beginning here......
Morning Largo and everyone. Evening, Aussie. A balmy 61 this morning here, high of 73 expected. Rain possible tonight. We still have spots with standing water from last week. Several teachers put up a temporary fence around one area we 'fondly' call 'The Lake'.

Breakfast this morning is biscuits and gravy, bagals with cream cheese and jelly.
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

Currently at 995 mb -- 6-hourly pressure time series: 987, 980, 963, 935, 922, 919 at tau+36. 65mb/24hours is ferocious/extreme deepening

5 hRyan Maue‏@RyanMaue

GFS back to 919 mb with explosive cyclone off east coast that will move WNW of Iceland during next 36-48 hours. http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/294659035070861 314/photo/1
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

The low in the W Atlantic goes from 987mb to 938mb in about 18hrs! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif - A drop of 49mb! #wow
Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

@UKweatherpics - Without question and then some. 24mb fall in 24hrs is a 'bomb' this low is off the scale.

WASHINGTON-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...CUMBERLAND...MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN
206 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND TAPER
OFF DURING THE EARLY EVENING. SNOW MAY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$
RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY...

.A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TODAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE NEARBY FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION...WHILE FAIRLY LIGHT IN
MOST AREAS...WILL FALL INTO A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET AT THE ONSET TO TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE HEAVIEST
ICING MAY OCCUR IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND ALSO
NORTH OF THE BALSAMS AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR. MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
PERHAPS A BIT MORE SLEET AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING.
Everyone have a great Friday. Aussie, have a great Saturday.
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Everyone have a great Friday. Aussie, have a great Saturday.


Have a nice day, too, Ainslinn. Happy Friday!!
Quoting Luisport:
Matthew Hugo%u200F@MattHugo81

@UKweatherpics - Without question and then some. 24mb fall in 24hrs is a 'bomb' this low is off the scale.



That is insanely ridiculous. 924mb. OMG. lol
YES... BIGGER THAN SANDY

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
YES... BIGGER THAN SANDY

really???
Reading back, it looked like an old timers request disco show on here last night. Nobody seemed to call up Riders on the Storm, as far as I could see! I hope they all enjoyed their party.
That storm in the north Atlantic will probably be getting set up to make a mess of Iceland about now.
Any news on how its developing? Just noticed you posted a chart. 321. trHUrrIXC5MMX
Still raining and thick fog over here in southern Spain, a bit like an English summers day. Not much of an end to it in sight at the moment. A 100 miles down the road to the east of me in the area around the city of Granada, they have about 10 foot of snow on the hills.
TRMM of Garry
In and out this morning. Ya'll have a good Friday. I'm on vacation at the end of this workday. WOOT WOOT!

50.0F and light fog on da Bayou Grande this am.
Incredible, explosive cyclogenesis will occur during the next 24 hours as a low pressure, analyzed to 988 mb at Jan 25/06Z, rapidly intensifies to 927 mb by Jan 26/06Z (24 hour position denoted by the small "X"). The latest OPC products forecast winds to 80 knots along with significant wave heights of 16 meters!
OSCAT lastnight of the future Atlantic bomb..
Current North Atlantic Wave Heights:
Good morning all. I'm just taking a quick peek of the weather before my day gets started. I have been busy all week with auditors so I haven't been able to enjoy the conversations on this blog. Thankfully, today is their last day which will be a busy one for me. Everyone have a great day and weekend.

To keep this on topic, the weather has been just beautiful here in the Keys. Cool weather, bright sunshine and light breezes. Couldn't ask for anything more. Be safe everyone.
This is not a major ice storm by any means, but it is producing enough frozen precipitation to cause travel troubles across Tennessee, Georgia, and North Carolina, where reports of road closures and accidents are coming in.

Schools closed today here in Dickson County -Mid TN. Just pre-ice pellet drizzle at this point, it's 33.6f. Kids are already playing Mindcraft.. Icey mix should soon arrive from the West and remain through noon or so.. I'm starting to think that the school administrators like snow days as much as the kids do..
333. VR46L
This must be the low starting to get it together

Link embedded

Link
Quoting VR46L:
This must be the low starting to get it together

Link embedded

Link



Are you hunkering down, btw? HOw close is this monster going to come to you.

I was sketical yesterday, but now I'm still seeing 924mb. That's scary!!
335. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:



Are you hunkering down, btw? HOw close is this monster going to come to you.

I was sketical yesterday, but now I'm still seeing 924mb. That's scary!!


The local mets are calm about it !!
No hype at all.
They just giving 60 mph Gusts on Monday and rain but its going to be a stormy week ahead with a succession of lows coming rather close
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
YES... BIGGER THAN SANDY

I do hope the local mets in the UK are warning people to prepare for this storm
Quoting LargoFl:
I do hope the local mets in the UK are warning people to prepare for this storm
no they are not!
Quoting Luisport:
no they are not!
maybe they are waiting to see what fully forms first,not a good idea though..
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/2946590350708613 14/photo/1
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTO N...
DENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...
MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...
WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
308 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY 3 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST.

* IMPACTS...GIVEN HOW COLD IT HAS BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE IMMEDIATELY. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING QUICKLY. SNOW WILL AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE.
UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED...
RESULTING IN AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. DRIVE AT A SLOWER
SPEED AND USE EXTRA CAUTION...ESPECIALLY WHEN TRAVELING ON BRIDGES
AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES AS THEY TEND TO BECOME EVEN MORE SLIPPERY.

&&

$$
345. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
maybe they are waiting to see what fully forms first,not a good idea though..


Largo , I havent heard a thing about it from our local mets ...Guess Thats why I watch the Atlantic myself
HERE ARE THE ONLY WARNINGS I FOUND FOR THE UK....SORRY ITS SO LONG..................



523
WOUK77 EGRR 251239
NATIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WARNING SERVICE

WARNING
- SNOW

A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS

- GRAMPIAN (AMBER)
- CENTRAL, TAYSIDE & FIFE (AMBER)
- STRATHCLYDE (AMBER)
- NORTH WEST ENGLAND (AMBER)
- NORTH EAST ENGLAND (AMBER)
- EAST MIDLANDS (AMBER)
- SW SCOTLAND, LOTHIAN BORDERS (AMBER)
- YORKSHIRE & HUMBER (AMBER)
- HIGHLANDS & EILEAN SIAR (AMBER)
- EAST OF ENGLAND (AMBER)
- WEST MIDLANDS (AMBER)
- WALES (AMBER)

FURTHER SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM THE WEST, AS ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT SLIDES EASTWARDS ACROSS THE UK. SNOW WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SCOTLAND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE EXTENDING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING, CLEARING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

4 TO 10 CM IS LIKELY QUITE WIDELY WITHIN THE AMBER WARNING AREA, WITH A LOW RISK OF MORE THAN 10 CM LOCALLY EVEN ON LOWER GROUND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 CM MAY OCCUR IN SOME UPLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DRIFTING AND BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER LEVEL ROADS.

THIS UPDATE ADJUSTS THE BOUNDARIES OF THE AMBER WARNING AREA A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS, AND JUST INTERSECTING THE CORNER OF NORTHEAST WALES NEAR WRECSAM, AS WELL AS EXTENDING FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS BORDERS AND LOTHIAN.

THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LIKELY DISRUPTION, PARTICULARLY TO TRAVEL.


ISSUED BY THE MET OFFICE AT 12:33 ON THURSDAY, 24TH JANUARY 2013
UPDATED BY THE MET OFFICE AT 12:39 ON FRIDAY, 25TH JANUARY 2013

VALID FROM 11:00 ON FRIDAY, 25TH JANUARY 2013
UNTIL 23:59 ON FRIDAY, 25TH JANUARY 2013

FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE GO TO:
HTTP://WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/PUBLIC/WEATHER/WARNIN GS

FOR ENQUIRIES REGARDING THIS WARNING -
PLEASE CONTACT THE MET OFFICE WEATHER DESK
- PHONE: 0870 900 0100
- FAX : 0870 900 5050
- EMAIL: ENQUIRIES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK


015
WOUK77 EGRR 241233
NATIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WARNING SERVICE

WARNING
- SNOW

A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS

- GRAMPIAN (AMBER)
- CENTRAL, TAYSIDE & FIFE (AMBER)
- STRATHCLYDE (AMBER)
- EAST OF ENGLAND (AMBER)
- NORTH WEST ENGLAND (AMBER)
- NORTH EAST ENGLAND (AMBER)
- EAST MIDLANDS (AMBER)
- SW SCOTLAND, LOTHIAN BORDERS (AMBER)
- YORKSHIRE & HUMBER (AMBER)
- HIGHLANDS & EILEAN SIAR (AMBER)
- WEST MIDLANDS (AMBER)

FURTHER SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST, AS ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVES EASTWARDS ACROSS THE UK. SNOW WILL REACH PARTS OF SCOTLAND DURING FRIDAY MORNING, AND EASTERN PARTS OF ENGLAND DURING THE LATE EVENING, LIKELY TO CLEAR THESE EASTERN AREAS BY THE EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY. 4 TO 8 CM IS LIKELY QUITE WIDELY WITHIN THE AMBER WARNING AREA, WITH A LOW RISK OF MORE THAN 10 CM LOCALLY EVEN ON LOWER GROUND. FURTHER NORTH, ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 CM MAY OCCUR IN SOME UPLAND AREAS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DRIFTING AND BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER LEVEL ROADS IN THE NORTH.

THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LIKELY DISRUPTION, PARTICULARLY TO TRAVEL.


ISSUED BY THE MET OFFICE AT 12:33 ON THURSDAY, 24TH JANUARY 2013

VALID FROM 11:00 ON FRIDAY, 25TH JANUARY 2013
UNTIL 02:00 ON SATURDAY, 26TH JANUARY 2013

FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE GO TO:
HTTP://WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/PUBLIC/WEATHER/WARNIN GS

FOR ENQUIRIES REGARDING THIS WARNING -
PLEASE CONTACT THE MET OFFICE WEATHER DESK
- PHONE: 0870 900 0100
- FAX : 0870 900 5050
- EMAIL: ENQUIRIES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK
347. VR46L
Quoting LargoFl:
HERE ARE THE ONLY WARNINGS I FOUND FOR THE UK....SORRY ITS SO LONG..................



523
WOUK77 EGRR 251239
NATIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WARNING SERVICE

WARNING
- SNOW

A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS

- GRAMPIAN (AMBER)
- CENTRAL, TAYSIDE & FIFE (AMBER)
- STRATHCLYDE (AMBER)
- NORTH WEST ENGLAND (AMBER)
- NORTH EAST ENGLAND (AMBER)
- EAST MIDLANDS (AMBER)
- SW SCOTLAND, LOTHIAN BORDERS (AMBER)
- YORKSHIRE & HUMBER (AMBER)
- HIGHLANDS & EILEAN SIAR (AMBER)
- EAST OF ENGLAND (AMBER)
- WEST MIDLANDS (AMBER)
- WALES (AMBER)

FURTHER SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM THE WEST, AS ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT SLIDES EASTWARDS ACROSS THE UK. SNOW WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN SCOTLAND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE EXTENDING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING, CLEARING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.

4 TO 10 CM IS LIKELY QUITE WIDELY WITHIN THE AMBER WARNING AREA, WITH A LOW RISK OF MORE THAN 10 CM LOCALLY EVEN ON LOWER GROUND. ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 CM MAY OCCUR IN SOME UPLAND AREAS OF NORTHERN ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DRIFTING AND BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER LEVEL ROADS.

THIS UPDATE ADJUSTS THE BOUNDARIES OF THE AMBER WARNING AREA A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDLANDS, AND JUST INTERSECTING THE CORNER OF NORTHEAST WALES NEAR WRECSAM, AS WELL AS EXTENDING FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS BORDERS AND LOTHIAN.

THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LIKELY DISRUPTION, PARTICULARLY TO TRAVEL.


ISSUED BY THE MET OFFICE AT 12:33 ON THURSDAY, 24TH JANUARY 2013
UPDATED BY THE MET OFFICE AT 12:39 ON FRIDAY, 25TH JANUARY 2013

VALID FROM 11:00 ON FRIDAY, 25TH JANUARY 2013
UNTIL 23:59 ON FRIDAY, 25TH JANUARY 2013

FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE GO TO:
HTTP://WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/PUBLIC/WEATHER/WARNIN GS

FOR ENQUIRIES REGARDING THIS WARNING -
PLEASE CONTACT THE MET OFFICE WEATHER DESK
- PHONE: 0870 900 0100
- FAX : 0870 900 5050
- EMAIL: ENQUIRIES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK


015
WOUK77 EGRR 241233
NATIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WARNING SERVICE

WARNING
- SNOW

A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS

- GRAMPIAN (AMBER)
- CENTRAL, TAYSIDE & FIFE (AMBER)
- STRATHCLYDE (AMBER)
- EAST OF ENGLAND (AMBER)
- NORTH WEST ENGLAND (AMBER)
- NORTH EAST ENGLAND (AMBER)
- EAST MIDLANDS (AMBER)
- SW SCOTLAND, LOTHIAN BORDERS (AMBER)
- YORKSHIRE & HUMBER (AMBER)
- HIGHLANDS & EILEAN SIAR (AMBER)
- WEST MIDLANDS (AMBER)

FURTHER SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST, AS ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVES EASTWARDS ACROSS THE UK. SNOW WILL REACH PARTS OF SCOTLAND DURING FRIDAY MORNING, AND EASTERN PARTS OF ENGLAND DURING THE LATE EVENING, LIKELY TO CLEAR THESE EASTERN AREAS BY THE EARLY HOURS OF SATURDAY. 4 TO 8 CM IS LIKELY QUITE WIDELY WITHIN THE AMBER WARNING AREA, WITH A LOW RISK OF MORE THAN 10 CM LOCALLY EVEN ON LOWER GROUND. FURTHER NORTH, ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 CM MAY OCCUR IN SOME UPLAND AREAS. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO DRIFTING AND BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER LEVEL ROADS IN THE NORTH.

THE PUBLIC SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LIKELY DISRUPTION, PARTICULARLY TO TRAVEL.


ISSUED BY THE MET OFFICE AT 12:33 ON THURSDAY, 24TH JANUARY 2013

VALID FROM 11:00 ON FRIDAY, 25TH JANUARY 2013
UNTIL 02:00 ON SATURDAY, 26TH JANUARY 2013

FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE GO TO:
HTTP://WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/PUBLIC/WEATHER/WARNIN GS

FOR ENQUIRIES REGARDING THIS WARNING -
PLEASE CONTACT THE MET OFFICE WEATHER DESK
- PHONE: 0870 900 0100
- FAX : 0870 900 5050
- EMAIL: ENQUIRIES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



Yep and that has nothing to do with what is building in the Atlantic
Quoting VR46L:


The local mets are calm about it !!
No hype at all.
They just giving 60 mph Gusts on Monday and rain but its going to be a stormy week ahead with a succession of lows coming rather close

very surprised. wow. still that's bad weather though. no picnic in the park. i had 50 mph gusts recently with the deciduous trees with all their leaves to the ground and it was still ever so frightening. kids occupied the bed all night. they were so scared they couldn't sleep in their own beds. bad night sleep as you could imagine. :)
Quoting VR46L:



Yep and that has nothing to do with what is building in the Atlantic

Heres another one for you to copy and paste. This one goes on about snow then rain with maybe floods.
not a mention of a storm, high winds etc.
Maybe they are taking a leaf from the forecasters who failed on the Sandy storm so badly a few months ago and saying nothing, in case nothing happens:-

http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/final-snowfall-before-f lood-fears
350. VR46L
Quoting PlazaRed:

Heres another one for you to copy and paste. This one goes on about snow then rain with maybe floods.
not a mention of a storm, high winds etc.
Maybe they are taking a leaf from the forecasters who failed on the Sandy storm so badly a few months ago and saying nothing, in case nothing happens:-

http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/final-snowfall-before-f lood-fears


Was unable to open the link .

But I dont know, the Mets in Ireland and Britain always underplay things . There really is no were to run from these storms so what is the point of getting hysterical.
Quoting VR46L:


Was unable to open the link .

But I dont know, the Mets in Ireland and Britain always underplay things . There really is no were to run from these storms so what is the point of getting hysterical.




that's crazy. somewhere else i remember someone saying the mets underplay stuff. I think it was the Philippines when the big typhoons were barreling down on them. i tend to think that is not safe. granted, overdoing it like jb tends to do isn't great either. you have to have a middle ground, a balance, a happy median. :)

i guess in times like this you must take matters into your owns hands. keep an eye on the atlantic with the satellites and radar links. i'll be watchin' for you too, liz!! =)
Quoting VR46L:



Yep and that has nothing to do with what is building in the Atlantic


GFS 45 hours

353. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:




that's crazy. somewhere else i remember someone saying the mets underplay stuff. I think it was the Philippines when the big typhoons were barreling down on them. i tend to think that is not safe. granted, overdoing it like jb tends to do isn't great either. you have to have a middle ground, a balance, a happy median. :)

i guess in times like this you must take matters into your owns hands. keep an eye on the atlantic with the satellites and radar links. i'll be watchin' for you too, liz!! =)


Very true !!

Yes balance between Over hype and under hype would be good .

And thanks Ainslie
It is very icy and slippery outside.So people need to watch their step.Whatever snow is around has basically become ice.More snow to come today though.Their is a hint that since this is powdery snow we could fluff up to perhaps 4 inches.I'm hoping CWG dosn't sound to optimistic.
The models are also showing isolated thunderstorms for the UK 50-70 hours.
Quoting VR46L:


Was unable to open the link .

But I dont know, the Mets in Ireland and Britain always underplay things . There really is no were to run from these storms so what is the point of getting hysterical.


You need to watch out for the space between the f and l in flood.

http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/final-snowfall-before-f lood-fears
I hope these strong winter/extra-tropical storms aren't signs to come for what to expect in the tropics this year :(.First the sub 935 storm in the north pacific.Now this storm up in the atlantic.
Quoting TomballTXPride:




that's crazy. somewhere else i remember someone saying the mets underplay stuff. I think it was the Philippines when the big typhoons were barreling down on them. i tend to think that is not safe. granted, overdoing it like jb tends to do isn't great either. you have to have a middle ground, a balance, a happy median. :)

i guess in times like this you must take matters into your owns hands. keep an eye on the atlantic with the satellites and radar links. i'll be watchin' for you too, liz!! =)


I was the one that said PAGASA was massively underplaying Bopha. They only had Bopha as a Signal #2 with is winds up to 185km/h when even on the SSHWS Bopha was a Cat 5 280km/h super typhoon. If they had of put up a signal #3 maybe more people would of evacuated and not died, but we'll never know.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope these strong winter/extra-tropical storms aren't signs to come for what to expect in the tropics this year :(.First the sub 935 storm in the north pacificNow this storm up in the atlantic.


We need some Tropical Storms to fire up to bring moisture and relieve the drought.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It is very icy and slippery outside.So people need to watch their step.Whatever snow is around has basically become ice.More snow to come today though.Their is a hint that since this is powdery snow we could fluff up to perhaps 4 inches.I'm hoping CWG dosn't sound to optimistic.


Whats CWG?
Rainfall for the next 8 days.

Yes, that is 400mm+ down the coast of SE Queensland and Northern Coast of NSW.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


We need some Tropical Storms to fire up to bring moisture and relieve the drought.
That's if the high sets up in the right place this year.If we want the drought to be relieved then a 2010 pattern would be the worst.However a 2008 pattern type set-up would be very benificial.However the strong storms aren't needed and Kori gets to track his cyclones.See everyone is happy!.lol.

CWG stands for Capital Weather Gang.Doc post about them here in his blog as well.They do local forecast for the D.C area in the Washingtonpost.They also talk about national and world wide weather.
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's if the high sets up in the right place this year.If we want the drought to be relieved then a 2010 pattern would be the worst.However a 2008 pattern type set-up would be very benificial.However the strong storms aren't needed and Kori gets to track his cyclones.See everyone is happy!.lol.


I love tracking cyclones of every type.

Also, the stream of T-storms coming off of Africa is pretty intense.

Once the high moves north...
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I love tracking cyclones of every type.

Also, the stream of T-storms coming off of Africa is pretty intense.

Once the high moves north...
Oh yes.I forgot that even before the cape verde season(or hurricane season for that matter starts)you can kind of get a feel for what the wave activity may be like for this year.If memory serves me correctly I think 2010 had strong thunderstorms very early on to and that year ended up having some pretty good cape verde storms that ended up being very strong hurricanes.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh yes.I forgot that even before the cape verde season(or hurricane season for that matter starts)you can kind of get a feel for what the wave ativity may be like for this year.If memory serves me correctly I think 2010 had strong thunderstorms very early on to and that year ended up having some pretty good cape verde storms that ended up being very strong hurricanes.


The GFS is showing pretty good CAPE values just off of Africa.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It is very icy and slippery outside.So people need to watch their step.Whatever snow is around has basically become ice.More snow to come today though.Their is a hint that since this is powdery snow we could fluff up to perhaps 4 inches.I'm hoping CWG dosn't sound to optimistic.


Sounds about right to me. I don't know if the NAM and GFS have the best grab on this system. They may be underplaying the snowfall totals just a bit. Just looking at radar it seems that D.C. is definitely in line for measurable snow today. Most areas probably seeing 1-2, but like you said I would not be at all surprised to see some 3-4 inch amounts in localized areas, especially in the West Virginia Mountains and any meso-scale bands that may set up. The key factor in accumulations also will be dry air and how long it will take the precipitation to saturate the atmosphere. There is definitely some virga in there.

Quoting FunnelVortex:


The GFS is showing pretty good CAPE values just off of Africa.
We'll have to see if this keeps up during the hurricane season.The ECWMF is showing the atlantic being average to slightly below average in terms of moisture.However lots of the top performing models screwed up big time with the 2012 hurricane season.I think the "list" threw them off lol.(That list is associated with inactive hurricane seasons).
Quoting washingtonian115:
We'll have to see if this keeps up during the hurricane season.The ECWMF is showing the atlantic being average to slightly below average in terms of moisture.However lots of the top performing models screwed up big time with the 2012 hurricane season.I think the "list" threw them off lol.(That list is associated with inactive hurricane seasons).


Yeah, we will have to see.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Sounds about right to me. I don't know if the NAM and GFS have the best grab on this system. They may be underplaying the snowfall totals just a bit. Just looking at radar it seems that D.C. is definitely in line for measurable snow today. Most areas probably seeing 1-2, but like you said I would not be at all surprised to see some 3-4 inch amounts in localized areas, especially in the West Virginia Mountains and any meso-scale bands that may set up. The key factor in accumulations also will be dry air and how long it will take the precipitation to saturate the atmosphere. There is definitely some virga in there.



One that radar loop Illinois Weather Fan, there is ALWAYS virga because they way it is centralized onto a single map. And notice it's a flat map, so it does not take into account the curvature of the Earth.

Use local radars for better assessments.
Quoting AussieStorm:


I was the one that said PAGASA was massively underplaying Bopha. They only had Bopha as a Signal #2 with is winds up to 185km/h when even on the SSHWS Bopha was a Cat 5 280km/h super typhoon. If they had of put up a signal #3 maybe more people would of evacuated and not died, but we'll never know.



Aussie ~ You're exactly correct. It was you. Good post.


Agree completely.


Quoting ILwthrfan:


Sounds about right to me. I don't know if the NAM and GFS have the best grab on this system. They may be underplaying the snowfall totals just a bit. Just looking at radar it seems that D.C. is definitely in line for measurable snow today. Most areas probably seeing 1-2, but like you said I would not be at all surprised to see some 3-4 inch amounts in localized areas, especially in the West Virginia Mountains and any meso-scale bands that may set up. The key factor in accumulations also will be dry air and how long it will take the precipitation to saturate the atmosphere. There is definitely some virga in there.

The clipper system surprised many with giving some areas 5 in a half inches of snow.This time the higher snow will not be concentrated there.More likely over our area.If the clipper can surprise then so can this storm and it looks like it has more moisture to work with.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Yeah, we will have to see.




CPC is showing a pretty good chance of below average temperatures and above average precipitation for you, which would normally indicate a higher chance of snow for you up in Wausau. This is both evident in the 6-10 and 8-14 days outlooks, respectively.



Something to be hopefully for.....



This is not cool at all

But the mayor was optimistic there would not be much damage, given the city had already dealt with 600mm of rain in the past two days but only experienced minor localised flooding.

Pretty sick rains there; 23 inches in 2 days.


As for the Extra-tropical low, 16 meter wave heights is 52.5 feet, if anyone didn't do the math.

Glad I'm not a sailor. Three foot seas scared the hell out of me, lol.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
This is not cool at all

Yeah as much as people may not have liked the 2004,2005 and 2008 hurricane seasons we need a set-up like that to come back so the drought won't be as bad.After the 2004 hurricane season the south-east drought wasn't as bad.A matter of fact many people were above normal.Or at least a El nino.
Quoting Luisport:
http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/29465903507086 13 14/photo/1


Here is the link - Link
Quoting PlazaRed:

Heres another one for you to copy and paste. This one goes on about snow then rain with maybe floods.
not a mention of a storm, high winds etc.
Maybe they are taking a leaf from the forecasters who failed on the Sandy storm so badly a few months ago and saying nothing, in case nothing happens:-

http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/final-snowfall-before-f lood-fears


Here is the link - Link

Oooops. Aussie had already fixed this one.


Good Morning All - Good Evening Aussie - Pouring here .09 reported at KRAL
58.1 right now. Cup a Tea anyone....
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Here is the link - Link


Rookie ~ Quite the beast moving through the North Atlantic. Thoughts on it??


Has anyone seen my favorite blogger with the two red flags in his avatar and people give him this three letter short nickname that begins with an "N"?.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Has anyone seen my favorite blogger with the two red flags in his avatar and people give him this three letter short nickname that begins with an "N"?.




Been hanging out with me and the gang over at Ricky Road's. That's of course if you dare to go over there.


Though judging by your comments here, I'm going to say "No".

LOL




Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah as much as people may not have liked the 2004,2005 and 2008 hurricane seasons we need a set-up like that to come back so the drought won't be as bad.After the 2004 hurricane season the south-east drought wasn't as bad.A matter of fact many people were above normal.Or at least a El nino.
2008 would be fine, 2004 would be great, but 2005's pattern would not help the drought AT ALL. Until this year 2005 had the third lowest annual rainfall on record, but this year took it's place. 2005 pattern would be EXTREMELY BAD!!!
Quoting TomballTXPride:


Rookie ~ Quite the beast moving through the North Atlantic. Thoughts on it??




I think any North Atlantic shipping is going to need a lot of Dramamine. I am just curious as to how long it can hold at that intensity.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I think any North Atlantic shipping is going to need a lot of Dramamine. I am just curious as to how long it can hold at that intensity.


LOL!!


Quoting PedleyCA:


Good Morning All - Good Evening Aussie - Pouring here .09 reported at KRAL
58.1 right now. Cup a Tea anyone....




We do Sweet Iced Tea down here in Southeast TX....but I'll have what your having if there's any left over.


:-]




Morning, Pedley.


Quoting ArkWeather:

2008 would be fine, 2004 would be great, but 2005's pattern would not help the drought AT ALL. Until this year 2005 had the third lowest annual rainfall on record, but this year took it's place. 2005 pattern would be EXTREMELY BAD!!!
Instability if memory serves me correctly back in 2008 was average? or slightly above average.We need big storms this year to fight off the Texas dry shield.You saw what it did to poor Don..
Quoting TomballTXPride:




Been hanging out with me and the gang over at Ricky Road's. That's of course if you dare to go over there.


Though judging by your comments here, I'm going to say "No".

LOL



Oh don't worry I was given a very sarcastic but stern warning.And by having common sense and knowing how serious some of those people take their beliefs and very huge egos I stay away..far far away..I'm not even tempted to go over lol.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh don't worry I was given a very sarcastic but stern warning.And by having common sense and knowing how serious some of those people take their beliefs and very huge egos I stay away..far far away..I'm not even tempted to go over lol.



:)


Smart Girl


back on this day we had this going on

The Great Flood of 1937

Link
391. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh don't worry I was given a very sarcastic but stern warning.And by having common sense and knowing how serious some of those people take their beliefs and very huge egos I stay away..far far away..I'm not even tempted to go over lol.


I broke my New year Resolution Yesterday .... But its a place I don't usually post in .
Quoting VR46L:


I broke my New year Resolution Yesterday .... But its a place I don't usually post in .
I can see why.I just went over there as a "luker".Wow talk about people really getting into the mood..And talk about insults.Yeesh...
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
This is not cool at all



Short hello from Germany. Please excuse me, if this has already been posted. I've few time in the moment to follow the blog.

Munich Re Says World Crop Insurance Costs Top Record on Drought
By Whitney McFerron - Jan 25, 2013 10:45 AM GMT+0100

Global crop insurance claims were the highest ever last year after drought cut yields in the U.S., historically the biggest grower of corn and soybeans.

Claims worldwide were worth about $23 billion in 2012, with $15 billion going to growers in the U.S., said Karl Murr, who heads the agriculture unit at Munich Re, the world’s biggest reinsurance company. About 85 percent of farmland is insured in the U.S., compared with 20 percent globally. U.S. corn and soybean harvests slid to a six-year low in the past season after the most severe dry spell since 1956.

“Drought was by far the single most important cause of losses in 2012,” Murr said yesterday in an e-mailed response to Bloomberg questions. “With the U.S. representing about 50 percent of worldwide crop insured values, they obviously took the lion’s share of payouts in 2012, dwarfing loss payouts in Europe, including eastern Europe.”

Corn and soybean prices rallied to records last year on the Chicago Board of Trade as yield prospects declined and rising demand depleted world stockpiles. As of Jan. 21, U.S. farmers had collected about $12.35 billion in insurance claims since the marketing year began, surpassing the $10.84 billion at the same time a year earlier, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency.

Combined output of corn and soybeans dropped to 355.9 million metric tons in the 2012-13 season, down 11 percent from a year earlier, according to the USDA. While the U.S. is the world’s biggest corn grower and exporter, Brazil is expected to overtake the North American country as the top producer and shipper of soybeans this season.

Source (Bloomberg)and more
Quoting AussieStorm:


I was the one that said PAGASA was massively underplaying Bopha. They only had Bopha as a Signal #2 with is winds up to 185km/h when even on the SSHWS Bopha was a Cat 5 280km/h super typhoon. If they had of put up a signal #3 maybe more people would of evacuated and not died, but we'll never know.


Yes, they totally blew the reporting on Bopha, and yes, they were under-reporting it's intensity by about 100kph, which is inexcusable IMO.
Quoting hydrus:
As usual the storm that does show up with lots of moisture comes when the temps are above freezing.Luckily after this slight warm up we will return back to below average temperatures and CWG winter expect Wes Junker thinks we'll see abover average chances for moistre.Cold+ moisture=snow.
397. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can see why.I just went over there as a "luker".Wow talk about people really getting into the mood..And talk about insults.Yeesh...


Yep , the insults,labels and general grouping of folk as all the same goes on, from some of the posters is really quite Shocking .
Looks rather impressive..

Quoting washingtonian115:
Instability if memory serves me correctly back in 2008 was average? or slightly above average.We need big storms this year to fight off the Texas dry shield.You saw what it did to poor Don..
I agree in instability, but it's not that simple either. Drought in 2005 was awful despite the instability. Everything tracked south into Mexico, or La eastward. Where the drought areas are now were left high and dry.
Quoting VR46L:


Yep , the insults,labels and general grouping of folk as all the same goes on, from some of the posters is really quite Shocking .
Yeah I caught people in there calling others idiots and what not.Thankfully their is a seperate blog for them :).
Quoting hydrus:
Looks rather impressive..
Is that for Wednesday's storm next week?.We'll be getting all rain for that one.
Quoting hydrus:
Looks rather impressive..
gee hydrus,that sure looks strong huh
Ya'll have to forgive me on my spelling.I type really fast and often post without looking.

Here in D.C the kids have half a day.Now I'm getting word that other counties in Maryland are releasing their kids two hours earlier.It seems people have learned a very long and good lesson from January 26 2011...
(local met in southern maryland said there's a chance for 3-5 inches of snow)............FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...
BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY
206 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE AND IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF
IN THE EVENING. SNOW MAY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&
Quoting TomballTXPride:




We do Sweet Iced Tea down here in Southeast TX....but I'll have what your having if there's any left over.


:-]




Morning, Pedley.




Stopped raining just before I had to drop the kid at school. Only Tea I have is Green Tea and Hot. Can be arranged though....
One more thing which might not have been posted yet (huuuh, I wouldn't like to be near this place right now).

Crikey!: 15,000 crocodiles escape from South Africa farm during flooding

National Post Staff | Jan 24, 2013 2:32 PM ET

The good news: The Rakwena Crocodile farm in South Africa caught nearly 7,500 crocodiles that escaped when the nearby Limpopo river rose. The bad news: Just as many are still on the loose.

The reptiles got loose when the farm had to unlock its gates due to flooding, the Daily Telegraph reports.

"We've been recapturing them as and when the local farmers phone us to tell us that there are crocodiles on their property," said Zane Langman, the son-in-law of the owner of Rakwena told the Agence France-Presse.

Of course, most of the croc hunting happens at night. Why you ask? Because the crocodiles eyes glow red at night making them easier to see in a way that is in no way whatsoever disturbing at all.

The crocodiles have exacerbated an already dangerous flood season which has left many in the region and in neighbouring Mozambique homeless.

In one case Langman said that he went to save a group of friends in a flooded house the point was driven home.

"You want to get them but you wonder the whole time if you'll make it there. When we reached them, the crocodiles were swimming around them," he said to News24. "Praise the Lord, they were all alive."

"I heard there were crocodiles in Musina [about 120km away] on the school's rugby field," Langman told the BBC.

At least eight people in South Africa and 12 in Mozambique have been killed by the floods, while over 15,000 have been driven from their homes according to Reuters. It%u2019s unclear if the crocodiles factored into any of the fatalities.

Source: National Post

Bye, see you next week, hopefully.

Edit: Here is video on the crocodile escape.
Quoting LargoFl:
(local met in southern maryland said there's a chance for 3-5 inches of snow)............FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-HOWARD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...COLUMBIA...
BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY
206 AM EST FRI JAN 25 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE
MASON-DIXON LINE AND IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF
IN THE EVENING. SNOW MAY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&
I wouldn't be surprised if D.C get's any where from 4-5 inches as well.
.........................map didnt post but the snow is getting closer to DC...
Quoting LargoFl:
.........................map didnt post but the snow is getting closer to DC...
We should start seeing flakes at around 12:30 the earliest.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CST FRI JAN 25 2013

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
GENERAL AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE GFS/EC/UK/CMC GLOBAL MODELS IN
THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE SCALE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. THROUGH D4/MON. HOWEVER...IT IS IMMEDIATELY THEREAFTER AND
BEYOND WHEN SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES APPEAR AND PERSIST AMONGST THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...THUS INTRODUCING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

THE ECMWF EXHIBITS THE GREATEST DEPARTURE FROM PRIOR RUNS AND IS AN
OUTLIER IN DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE BASE OF THE POSITIVE
TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND BAJA THROUGH D5/TUE. THE
GFS...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND GFS
ENSEMBLE...MAINTAIN A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PHASED DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AND STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT SPREAD EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS MID/LOWER
MS VALLEY THROUGH D6/WED. BUT...EVEN AMONGST THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH IS HIGH WITH
THE STANDARD DEVIATION IN 500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S.
EXCEEDING 90M AT THE 120H FORECAST VALID D5/TUE EVENING.

DESPITE THE SPREAD IN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM ARKLATEX TO MS DELTA REGIONS
AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO AN
AXIS OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THROUGH D5/TUE EVENING. WITH LATEST
MODEL SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EXHIBITING SUCH DIVERGENT
OUTCOMES HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. THUS...PREDICTABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE WEATHER AREA AT THIS TIME.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Stopped raining just before I had to drop the kid at school. Only Tea I have is Green Tea and Hot. Can be arranged though....




Works for me!

Got a wet weekend up ahead for you, but then you'll dry out for next week.



Link



Whooooo!:


Plenty of CAPE:
Quoting washingtonian115:
We should start seeing flakes at around 12:30 the earliest.
ok ty..good luck up there
Looking forward to another 5"+ in southern MD today. My weekend starts in 30 minutes.

Stay safe and warm fellow weather nerds.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
whooooo:
hope no tornado's from that gee
we now have winter storm KHAN
Quoting PressureDrop:
Looking forward to another 5"+ in southern MD today. My weekend starts in 30 minutes.

Stay safe and warm fellow weather nerds.
don't talk to me.
UK weather page.............Link
Link


A good article about Red Tide and the belief that it is a Man made problem...not natural. This is my belief as well.
sorry double post
that front next week dont drop my temps,but windy here..
Just had a light snow shower pass through Cary NC, just to the west of Raleigh. Another snow band looks to be moving in soon. 2nd Friday in a row seeing snow... I'll take it!!
Quoting TomballTXPride:




Works for me!

Got a wet weekend up ahead for you, but then you'll dry out for next week.



Link





Precipitation now shows .19 and I hear it starting up again but very lightly. We got .19 yesterday. MTD was .22 not counting todays. We do need this rain.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Whooooo!:


Plenty of CAPE:
That is an INSANE trough... If models start saying it goes Negatively tilted, we are in for a doozy of an outbreak.
drought in south florida?...NWS......Abnormally Dry Conditions Expanded to Cover Most Of South Florida......
Quoting PedleyCA:


Precipitation now shows .19 and I hear it starting up again but very lightly. We got .19 yesterday. MTD was .22 not counting todays. We do need this rain.




you cant have it its mine rain give it back
Quoting washingtonian115:
don't talk to me.


I am usually pretty quite, but I'm not making any promises today. Enjoy your snow!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.