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U.S., China Reach Historic Climate Change Agreement

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:44 PM GMT on November 13, 2014

Stunning and welcome climate change news came out of China on Tuesday, when President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a historic joint climate commitment. The U.S. pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 26 - 28% by 2025, compared with 2005 levels. In turn, China agreed to peak its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030--and sooner if possible--and to get 20% of its energy from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. In order to achieve its part of the bargain, the U.S. will need to double the pace of carbon pollution reduction from 1.2% per year from 2005-2020 to 2.3 - 2.8% per year between 2020 - 2025. In order to achieve its part of the deal, China must deploy an additional 800 - 1,000 gigawatts of nuclear, wind, solar and other zero emission generation capacity by 2030--more than all the coal-fired power plants that exist in China today, and close to total current electricity generation capacity in the United States.   


Figure 1. U.S. President Barack Obama shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping after a joint press conference at the Great Hall of People to announce a historic climate change deal on November 12, 2014 in Beijing, China. (Photo by Feng Li/Getty Images)

A step in the right direction, but a long ways to go
Humanity has a budget to keep. In order to keep global warming below the agreed-upon definition for the threshold of dangerous climate change, 2°C above pre-industrial levels, cumulative human CO2 emissions since 1870 must remain below about 2900 GtCO2. About two-thirds of that budget--1900 GtCO--had already been emitted by 2011, according to the November 2, 2014 IPCC Synthesis Report. The International Energy Agency warned in 2012 that "almost four-fifths of the CO2 emissions allowable by 2035 are already locked-in by existing power plants, factories, buildings, etc. If action to reduce CO2 emissions is not taken before 2017, all the allowable CO2 emissions would be locked-in by energy infrastructure existing at that time." If China and the U.S. follow their new commitments, humanity will exceed its carbon budget by 2042, just five years later than if they continue to follow their current "business as usual" course, according to analysis by Frank Melum, Senior Point Carbon Analyst at Thomson Reuters. “We do not expect these new targets to significantly alter the world’s trajectory for emissions growth, but the joint announcement will probably alter the pace of negotiations, and could in time could lead to improved ambition levels,” said Melum.


Figure 2. Of the proven fossil fuel reserves still in the ground (equivalent to emitting 2795 Gt of CO2, dark grey oval with a black oval of the maximum we can burn embedded in it), between 66% - 86% must stay in the ground if we are to have at least a two-in-three chance of keeping warming below 2°C, according to three groups who have done carbon budget analyses, the IPCC, the International Energy Agency, and the Carbon Tracker Initiative. Reserves are those quantities able to be recovered under existing economic and operating conditions (split as 63% coal, 22% oil, and 15% gas, according to the International Energy Agency.) These reserves were valued at $27 trillion (nearly 40% of the global yearly GDP), according to The Capital Institute. The IPCC, quoting Rogner et al., 2012, Global Energy Assessment–Toward a Sustainable Future (Chapter 7: Energy Resources and Potentials), says that these reserves are a factor of 4 - 7 more than what can burned. Fossil fuel resources are those where economic extraction is potentially feasible, and could become reserves in the future (e.g., methane hydrate deposits under the ocean floor.) The IPCC estimated these resources were an additional factor of 31 - 50 higher than the maximum we can burn. If only a small fraction of the these resources are developed and burned, Earth would have a hot-house climate like occurred during the age of the dinosaurs.

Commentary: A game-changing agreement
While the new deal is not binding and doesn't go far enough on its own to stop dangerous climate change, it is a huge political step forward in the fight against climate change. One of the key arguments being made in the U.S. against taking climate change action--that China was doing nothing to limit their emissions--has now been nullified. And over the next fifteen years, China is planning on installing enough renewable energy from sources like solar and wind to power the entire United States--guaranteeing continued explosive growth and price drops in green energy that will make it able to out-compete fossil fuels even with the massive subsidies they enjoy. When you add in last month's European Union (EU) pledge to cut total emissions 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, we now have countries representing more than half of all global emissions making serious commitments to reduce carbon pollution. This gives real hope that a significant binding treaty to limit greenhouse gases can be successfully negotiated in Paris in December 2015 at the critical ‪United Nations Climate Change Conference‬.

Links
U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change and Clean Energy Cooperation: White House Fact Sheet.

Why The U.S.-China CO2 Deal Is An Energy, Climate, And Political Gamechanger: November 12, 2014 blog post by Joe Romm at ClimateProgress.org.

IPCC Final Report: We've Blown Two-Thirds of Our Carbon Budget: my November 2, 2014 blog post.

What You Need to Know About U.S.-China Climate Pact: November 12, 2014 blog post by Brian Kahn of ClimateCentral.org.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Politics Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
thanks doc

I think
This is something that affects the entire Earth, problems, that transcend Nation's



- Isaac Asimov
Thanks for the update doc!


Winter Storm Bozeman Forecast: Snow, Some Ice For Oregon, Southern Washington, Idaho, and Rockies
Snow, along with some ice, will make travel hazardous across parts of the West through Saturday.
Particularly in the crosshairs of Winter Storm Bozeman is Portland, Oregon and the northern Willamette Valley. The outcome will hinge on how cold it is when precipitation begins. It could be cold enough for several hours of snow, freezing rain and/or sleet -- enough to cause treacherous road conditions for Thursday's commutes, and in a worst-case scenario, more power outages due to ice, snow accumulation and lingering strong wind gusts out of the Columbia Gorge.

Parts of northwest Oregon and extreme southwest Washington could pick up one-quarter of an inch of ice or more.
thanx doc....glad you picked a topic that would make people focus on the weather and not as much on politics.....LOL



wow everyone going to get hit by this snow storm with 3 inches of snow or more!!
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR 810 AM PST THU NOV 13 2014 ORZ006-WAZ039-140015- /O.CAN.KPQR.WS.W.0010.000000T0000Z-141114T0600Z/ /O.EXA.KPQR.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-141114T0600Z/ GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY... GRESHAM...TROUTDALE...VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...CAMAS... WASHOUGAL 810 AM PST THU NOV 13 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR THE PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREA... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING. * TIMING...EXPECT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW AREAS OF SNOW...MAINLY IN CLARK COUNTY. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE IN THE THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. * WINDS...EAST WINDS WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH WILL REMAIN BRISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS EVENING. * WIND CHILL...BRISK EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE LESS WINDY AREAS...TO NEAR ZERO IN AREAS OF THE STRONGEST WINDS CLOSEST TO THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL OVER SECONDARY ROADS IN PARTICULAR WILL BECOME DIFFICULT. ROADS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
China Climate Deal? 'Pffffft,' Say Republicans
Posted: 11/12/2014 7:47 pm EST


WASHINGTON -– If anyone thought the announcement of a bilateral U.S.-China climate agreement on Wednesday might lead to a breakthrough on climate policy in Washington, Senate Republicans would like to inform them otherwise.

The presumptive Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), said he was "distressed" by the U.S.-China deal, arguing that it "requires the Chinese to do nothing at all for 16 years while these carbon emission regulations are creating havoc in my state and other states around the country."

President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the agreement on Wednesday. Under the deal, the U.S. will aim to cut emissions 26 percent to 28 percent by 2025, and China will reach its peak emissions by 2030. This was heralded as a major breakthrough on the path to a global climate agreement.
Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the chamber's most vocal climate change denier and the likely new chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee, took to the Senate floor Wednesday, criticizing the agreement for allowing China years before it begins to reduce emissions, and casting doubt that it ever would. "Even if they did agree to reducing emissions, we wouldn't believe them," said Inhofe. "They don't end up doing what they say their going to do in these agreements."

In an appearance on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) called the agreement "irresponsible," and argued it would "impose expensive new regulations on energy in the United States." (The agreement does not include specific regulations for the U.S.; it merely lays out a 2025 target for emissions reductions.)

"To me, this is an agreement that's terrible for the United States and terrific for the Chinese government and for the politicians there, because it allows China to continue to raise their emissions over the next 16 years," said Barrasso.

Mitchell pushed Barrasso, a medical doctor by training. "You're a man of science," she said, highlighting statement from his colleague Inhofe that claimed climate change could not be happening because God is in control. "Why should frankly people trust Republicans to be running policy on science when this is what the incoming chairman had to say about climate change?"

Barrasso refused to take the bait, sticking to his argument about the potential cost of new greenhouse gas regulations without offering an alternative. "All of us want to make energy as clean as we can as fast as we can," he said. "We want to do it in ways that don't raise the energy costs for American families and impact their jobs, income, ability to provide for their families. Those are the issues we need to be focusing on."

Not all Republicans joined the chorus of complaints. Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) said he spoke briefly to Secretary of State John Kerry on Wednesday about the pact. He said he's keeping an open mind.

"I'm positive about trying to cooperate with China on this," Graham said. "We'll see."

The response to the China deal is a departure from previous Republican talking points on climate, which often included complaints that U.S. action was meaningless without China's agreement to participate.

Republican leaders have pledged to block the Obama administration's greenhouse gas regulations that sharply reduce power plant emissions. But environmental advocates have said such an action would likely sour progress toward a global agreement that includes major developing nations like China. If U.S. regulations are blocked, "it would collapse the effort to get China and India and other countries to move forward," said David Doniger, policy director and senior attorney for the climate and clean air program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, in a post-election call with reporters last week. He noted that developing nations' participation in an agreement is "something that Republicans have been demanding for years."

Jennifer Bendery contributed.
Quoting 2. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

thanks doc

I think



LOL Keep, good luck with this blog!
Quoting 8. ricderr:

thanx doc....glad you picked a topic that would make people focus on the weather and not as much on politics.....LOL


Almost like he made this new blog just to get everyone off the previous blog that went political. XD
Quoting 3. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Looks quite well for November..
Thanks Doc.
Quoting 11. Patrap:

China Climate Deal? 'Pffffft,' Say Republicans
Posted: 11/12/2014 7:47 pm EST


WASHINGTON -– If anyone thought the announcement of a bilateral U.S.-China climate agreement on Wednesday might lead to a breakthrough on climate policy in Washington, Senate Republicans would like to inform them otherwise.

The presumptive Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), said he was "distressed" by the U.S.-China deal, arguing that it "requires the Chinese to do nothing at all for 16 years while these carbon emission regulations are creating havoc in my state and other states around the country."

President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the agreement on Wednesday. Under the deal, the U.S. will aim to cut emissions 26 percent to 28 percent by 2025, and China will reach its peak emissions by 2030. This was heralded as a major breakthrough on the path to a global climate agreement.
Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the chamber's most vocal climate change denier and the likely new chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee, took to the Senate floor Wednesday, criticizing the agreement for allowing China years before it begins to reduce emissions, and casting doubt that it ever would. "Even if they did agree to reducing emissions, we wouldn't believe them," said Inhofe. "They don't end up doing what they say their going to do in these agreements."

In an appearance on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) called the agreement "irresponsible," and argued it would "impose expensive new regulations on energy in the United States." (The agreement does not include specific regulations for the U.S.; it merely lays out a 2025 target for emissions reductions.)

"To me, this is an agreement that's terrible for the United States and terrific for the Chinese government and for the politicians there, because it allows China to continue to raise their emissions over the next 16 years," said Barrasso.

Mitchell pushed Barrasso, a medical doctor by training. "You're a man of science," she said, highlighting statement from his colleague Inhofe that claimed climate change could not be happening because God is in control. "Why should frankly people trust Republicans to be running policy on science when this is what the incoming chairman had to say about climate change?"

Barrasso refused to take the bait, sticking to his argument about the potential cost of new greenhouse gas regulations without offering an alternative. "All of us want to make energy as clean as we can as fast as we can," he said. "We want to do it in ways that don't raise the energy costs for American families and impact their jobs, income, ability to provide for their families. Those are the issues we need to be focusing on."

Not all Republicans joined the chorus of complaints. Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) said he spoke briefly to Secretary of State John Kerry on Wednesday about the pact. He said he's keeping an open mind.

"I'm positive about trying to cooperate with China on this," Graham said. "We'll see."

The response to the China deal is a departure from previous Republican talking points on climate, which often included complaints that U.S. action was meaningless without China's agreement to participate.

Republican leaders have pledged to block the Obama administration's greenhouse gas regulations that sharply reduce power plant emissions. But environmental advocates have said such an action would likely sour progress toward a global agreement that includes major developing nations like China. If U.S. regulations are blocked, "it would collapse the effort to get China and India and other countries to move forward," said David Doniger, policy director and senior attorney for the climate and clean air program at the Natural Resources Defense Council, in a post-election call with reporters last week. He noted that developing nations' participation in an agreement is "something that Republicans have been demanding for years."

Jennifer Bendery contributed.


Watch it now... did you not see the last blog? Doc doesn't want to see another blog turn political. :)
Warm air right out of Northern Canada..

Quoting 14. hydrus:

Looks quite well for November..
there is this tree a friend of mine has on his property down there looked a little dry needed a little water

now its not dry anymore
Quoting 16. TimTheWxMan:



Watch it now... did you not see the last blog? Doc doesn't want to see another blog turn political. :)


However this time the topic of the blog post is political hence political debate is not off topic.


Quoting 14. hydrus:

Looks quite well for November..


I love how the island of trinidad kinda looks like a cumulonimbus cloud. Doesn't it?
Storms' lingering cold water paths restrict intensity of following tropical cyclones

It's an oceanic case of sibling rivalry. Large, first-born cyclones drink in most of the ocean's warmth, leaving cold water leftovers for sibling storms that cross its path. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and collaborators from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that cyclones' rate of intensity slows when they interact with residual cold wakes from previous cyclones. Results show that this process occurs often enough to change the mean intensification rate for cyclones in the world's major cyclone development areas. The research was featured on the cover of Geophysical Research Letters.

Read more at: Link
Wasn't pottery wishing for rain just a few days ago?

Quoting 19. georgevandenberghe:



However this time the topic of the blog post is political hence political debate is not off topic.



as long as its in reference to the blog entry itself and kept somewhat peaceful
Quoting 13. TimTheWxMan:



Almost like he made this new blog just to get everyone off the previous blog that went political. XD
The debate about nationalizing the U.S. oil and gas industry (at the end of the previous blog) should be in this blog. LPL I have no more "energy" for that (debate).


Quoting 16. TimTheWxMan:



Watch it now... did you not see the last blog? Doc doesn't want to see another blog turn political. :)



LOL'......


right, me Careful on wu?




Quoting 21. ColoradoBob1:

Storms' lingering cold water paths restrict intensity of following tropical cyclones

It's an oceanic case of sibling rivalry. Large, first-born cyclones drink in most of the ocean's warmth, leaving cold water leftovers for sibling storms that cross its path. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and collaborators from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that cyclones' rate of intensity slows when they interact with residual cold wakes from previous cyclones. Results show that this process occurs often enough to change the mean intensification rate for cyclones in the world's major cyclone development areas. The research was featured on the cover of Geophysical Research Letters.

Read more at: Link



I don't like to be critical but why is this news? It's been known since at least the 70s when I read about it and I think it was well understood by that time.


Please note I'm questioning why GL published it, not why Colorado Bob pointed it out.


Thanks Jeff. Never a good sign when the political starts in the first 10 posts. Here we go...
Despite AGW I will have to fire up the woodstove in my DC home this weekend. Latest first fire since 2010.
In mid autumn though the heat pump alternative is cost effective.. Electric resistance backup in midwinter.. very costly.

I knew this was going to be the next blog topic. I'm sure I wasn't the only person thinking this.
I think its safe to say. The atlantic hurricane season is over.
A article about the GOP's reaction to the Climate deal with China is directly related to the entry here.

So If you cant handle a intelligent entry on a serious Global issue, there is always the Fla blog by someone to post in, eh?

This is big boy stuff.

: P
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there is this tree a friend of mine has on his property down there looked a little dry needed a little water

now its not dry anymore
I have a lot of trees that need water.

Maybe it's not such a good idea to ask you to help out though.
Quoting 21. ColoradoBob1:

Storms' lingering cold water paths restrict intensity of following tropical cyclones

It's an oceanic case of sibling rivalry. Large, first-born cyclones drink in most of the ocean's warmth, leaving cold water leftovers for sibling storms that cross its path. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and collaborators from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that cyclones' rate of intensity slows when they interact with residual cold wakes from previous cyclones. Results show that this process occurs often enough to change the mean intensification rate for cyclones in the world's major cyclone development areas. The research was featured on the cover of Geophysical Research Letters.

Read more at: Link


Thank you captain obvious. In other news, cyclones in the northern hemisphere rotate counter-clockwise and cyclones in the southern hemisphere rotate clockwise. XP
Quoting 32. sar2401:

I have a lot of trees that need water.

Maybe it's not such a good idea to ask you to help out though.
is Monday of next week good for you I will water the trees then
Quoting 31. Patrap:

A article about the GOP's reaction to the Climate deal with China is directly related to the entry here.

So If you cant handle a intelligent entry on a serious Global issue, there is always the Fla blog by someone to post in, eh?

This is big boy stuff.

: P


Ah. Somehow the last blog partially turned into an argument about obamacare and how much government is needed, which are irrelevant to the blog.
<---Will be here Saturday celebrating.


Bye Bye Hurricane Season Party

The 6th Annual Bye Bye Hurricane Season Celebration is here!



Evacuteer.org and People United for Armstrong Park join forces to mark the end of another hurricane season with the sixth annual Bye-Bye Hurricane Season celebration. This year’s event will be a festival that will be free and open to the public in Armstrong Park on Saturday, November 15th from 12 – 6pm.


This year’s Bye-Bye celebration will feature a different format from past events and will be a daytime festival with family- friendly activities with science experiments for kids, face painting and a bounce castle. Local vendors will provide food and drinks, including NOAL Brewing beer and cocktails from Cellar Door.


Quoting georgevandenberghe:



I don't like to be critical but why is this news? It's been known since at least the 70s when I read about it and I think it was well understood by that time.


Please note I'm questioning why GL published it, not why Colorado Bob pointed it out.


That was my first thought as well. Who among even us rank amateurs doesn't know about upwelling from the hurricane in front affecting a hurricane following? The press release is repetitive and doesn't illuminate what new information this study provides. I don't get this one.
Quoting 36. Patrap:

<---Will be here Saturday celebrating.


Bye Bye Hurricane Season Party

The 6th Annual Bye Bye Hurricane Season Celebration is here!



Evacuteer.org and People United for Armstrong Park join forces to mark the end of another hurricane season with the sixth annual Bye-Bye Hurricane Season celebration. This year’s event will be a festival that will be free and open to the public in Armstrong Park on Saturday, November 15th from 12 – 6pm.


This year’s Bye-Bye celebration will feature a different format from past events and will be a daytime festival with family- friendly activities with science experiments for kids, face painting and a bounce castle. Local vendors will provide food and drinks, including NOAL Brewing beer and cocktails from Cellar Door.





I guess it's safe to say the hurricane season is over.
Wow 12Z CMC Going COLD COLD COLD COLD in FL!!
The least important thing to a blogger, esp a active one like myself, is the LAST blog.

Lean forward
Thank you Dr. Masters for summarizing the results of the agreement so they could be easily understood. But it seems to me that the China "explosive growth" impact is the real wild card in all of this. It 's just a prediction used to calculate what level of emission reduction or in the case of China, a way of giving them great leeway in meeting their goals. Sure, they are going to build an energy system the equivalent of the entire United States of America power generation capability over the next 15 years.....and how long has it taken the United States to build such a power generation system - certainly did not happen in 15 years.....and that action has to compete for financial, personnel, material and construction resources, against their massive, ongoing, military buildup of which the bow wave is still building, particularly in infrastructure. That one statement alone makes the Chinese commitment worthless and totally unrealistic that it will happen; but at least the US will confront this issue head-on, try and do something about it and (hopefully) it will not make a huge negative impact on the American consumer (ie., cost) or it won't fly, even though we really do need to try and meet or exceed these goals.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
is Monday of next week good for you I will water the trees then
Let's make it Wednesday. We're supposed to get rain Monday, and I don't want encourage too much of a good thing. If this system dies out like all the others and gives me no rain, I guess I'll take my chances with your tree watering system then.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow 12Z CMC Going COLD COLD COLD COLD in FL!!


And I thought the 12Z GFS was cold.
12Z GFS has 33 degrees for Orlando on Wednesday morning.
Thanks dok!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow 12Z CMC Going COLD COLD COLD COLD in FL!!

And even colder in the NWS Paducah forecasting area!!! BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 45. 62901IL:

Thanks dok!


See any snow this morning? I saw a few flurries on and off but it melted upon hitting the ground.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


See any snow this morning? I saw a few flurries on and off but it melted upon hitting the ground.

Nope. However, there was a band of light snow and sleet in the NWS Memfist (Memphis) forecasting area this morning.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow 12Z CMC Going COLD COLD COLD COLD in FL!!
15 in SE AL and 23 right on the beach in the Panhandle? I'll buy 23 here and 28 at the beach if this cold air mass doesn't modify at all. I think the GEM isn't any better with temperature forecasts than it is with tropical cyclones.
Quoting 48. 62901IL:


Nope. However, there was a band of light snow and sleet in the NWS Memfist (Memphis) forecasting area this morning.


Ah. The snow was pretty light here too.
Quoting 20. TimTheWxMan:



I love how the island of trinidad kinda looks like a cumulonimbus cloud. Doesn't it?
Yes..


Quoting 36. Patrap:

<---Will be here Saturday celebrating.


Bye Bye Hurricane Season Party

The 6th Annual Bye Bye Hurricane Season Celebration is here!



Evacuteer.org and People United for Armstrong Park join forces to mark the end of another hurricane season with the sixth annual Bye-Bye Hurricane Season celebration. This year’s event will be a festival that will be free and open to the public in Armstrong Park on Saturday, November 15th from 12 – 6pm.


This year’s Bye-Bye celebration will feature a different format from past events and will be a daytime festival with family- friendly activities with science experiments for kids, face painting and a bounce castle. Local vendors will provide food and drinks, including NOAL Brewing beer and cocktails from Cellar Door.



Shouldn't they wait until the official end of the season on November 30th?? LOL
get ready Orlando for the freeze
Quoting 33. TimTheWxMan:



Thank you captain obvious. In other news, cyclones in the northern hemisphere rotate counter-clockwise and cyclones in the southern hemisphere rotate clockwise. XP


Results from this study show the importance of accurately representing the upper ocean's vertical mixing processes as current climate models may not capture an important self-regulating mechanism of cyclone-cyclone interactions.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-11-storms-lingering-cold -paths-restrict.html#jCp
Quoting 51. hydrus:

Yes..




Yes! I knew I wasn't the only one who caught it!
I'm not writing it off yet, but if I was betting with someone else's money I'd say it was over.

I wouldn't bet on it with my own money. I've just seen too many surprises in my lifetime.

Quoting 30. WxGuy2014:

I think its safe to say. The atlantic hurricane season is over.
Quoting 22. capeflorida:

Wasn't pottery wishing for rain just a few days ago?


It appears the rain is in park....On top of Pottery..:)
Quoting 54. ColoradoBob1:



Results from this study show the importance of accurately representing the upper ocean's vertical mixing processes as current climate models may not capture an important self-regulating mechanism of cyclone-cyclone interactions.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2014-11-storms-lingering-cold -paths-restrict.html#jCp


Well, why didn't you say so? You made it sound like it was only talking about upwelling, which we all know adversely affects any cyclone that goes over the same path after the first one since it upwells cooler water.
Wow, teens for me in SC. Look at C FL! Wow. Monday/Tuesday storm looking interesting.

Quoting 39. SFLWeatherman:

Wow 12Z CMC Going COLD COLD COLD COLD in FL!!

Quoting TimTheWxMan:


I guess it's safe to say the hurricane season is over.
It certainly is looking bleak for any more storms. I don't think I've ever seen the cloud shield over North America larger than the Atlantic. Check out the Caribbean though. Except for the usual persistent activity off Panama, it's clear and filled with dry air. That's not going to get any better when the largest area of upper level circulation is the cold storm in NA.

Quoting sar2401:
15 in SE AL and 23 right on the beach in the Panhandle? I'll buy 23 here and 28 at the beach if this cold air mass doesn't modify at all. I think the GEM isn't any better with temperature forecasts than it is with tropical cyclones.


Yeah, I'm not even sure it will get down to the numbers the 12Z GFS is showing for Wednesday.

Quoting 44. Sfloridacat5:



And I thought the 12Z GFS was cold.
12Z GFS has 33 degrees for Orlando on Wednesday morning.
mickey mouse will need ear muffs
Ocean primed for more El Nino

The ocean is warming steadily and setting up the conditions for stronger El Niño weather events, a new study has shown.

A team of US, Australian, and Canadian researchers sampled corals from a remote island in Kiribati to build a 60-year record of ocean surface temperature and salinity.

"The trend is unmistakeable, the ocean's primed for more El Niño events," says lead-author Dr Jessica Carilli, now based at the University of Massachusetts, Boston.

Team member Dr Helen McGregor from the Research School of Earth Sciences at The Australian National University said the change in El Niño patterns could have a major impact on Australia's weather.



Read more at: Link
I cant wait for Orlando at Disney cold and fun awsome
Quoting 61. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I'm not even sure it will get down to the numbers the 12Z GFS is showing for Wednesday.


hr 144 gfs 12z

This is still a week out so a lot can change! but most of C FL and S FL do not get first frost until the end of December or January
Quoting 61. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I'm not even sure it will get down to the numbers the 12Z GFS is showing for Wednesday.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hr 144 gfs 12z



I wonder if we could get that wind to come a little more onshore and see some Ocean Effect snow showers?
That would be cool to see.

Ahhh, the anti Man.
Quoting 47. TimTheWxMan:



See any snow this morning? I saw a few flurries on and off but it melted upon hitting the ground.
flurries light snow showers have stated here last half hr or so nothing staying ground is turning wet as they fall sunday will be first accumulation day here as air becomes colder and flurries will become squally in the colder flow over water which will cause areas of coverage to expand till at least tuseday night after midnight into wed morning
get ready orlando
A forecast like this one would be cool.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1048 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2003

...FLURRIES OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PRODUCING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES OFFSHORE
AND ALONG THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL. THESE FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODIFY CAUSING THE LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES TO CHANGE OVER TO VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. NO
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE LAST TIME FLURRIES WERE
RECEIVED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WAS IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

$$
Quoting 116. Xulonn:


The U.S. government and big business are still beholden to the fossil fuel companies, and the rest of the world is pulling away. 

Correct me if I am wrong, but I see the backing of Solyndra, which was initiated by the Bush Administration and implemented by the Obama Administration is a good example of false equivalence.  The U.S. backs the oil and coal industries with massive subsidies and tax breaks, and their toadies whine when even modest breaks and support are given to alternative cleaner energy companies.  So when China gave even more massive support to their solar companies and crushed Solyndra, the U.S. ignorati whined about Solyndra and Obama without even considering the international economic facts of the situation.  This is not how a nation leads the world. 

Here's a LINK to information on international solar implementation (about a year old) that shows how far the U.S. is from being a leader - its traditional technical and bragging rights position. 

I find it ironic that the U.S is still a leader in academia with respect to science and technology of all sorts, but is way behind in the implementation of those technologies.  And that Elon Musk, a South Africa-born immigrant scientist/inventor/entrepreneur  - and not an American-born good-old-boy - is at the top of U.S. field of people bringing the new technologies to fruition.  It's amazing how he has succeeded in his ventures when the conservative business dinosaurs would rather crush him than beat him with better technology, efficiency and non-predatory business practices.

However, I have faith in Elon Musk, and the need for better batteries is a big part of his business these days.  He has closed the deal on the land, and construction has begun on his  $5 BILLION battery plant near Reno, Nevada - a partnership with Panasonic.  This will double the global production of lithium batteries, and reduce the cost of his cars.  Also, AES corporation is doing big utility-class lithium battery systems for load balancing.  The 6,500 new jobs will be more than 1/3 of the number of direct employees in the coal industry for the entire state of Kentucky. 

And lets hope that Mr. Musk will provide electric buses or trolleys to get his employees out to the remote factory site - and pay them enough to all buy electric cars. 

This is not only a great opportunity for the transition to more solar and wind, but also for encouraging community transition to a more efficient transportation network.  (Of course, due to fair employment laws, there will probably still be a few guys driving to work with their "coal roller" diesel pickups, but there would be an interesting peer-pressure situation for this green technology factory in the heart of redneck country.)


I truly think that in spite of the efforts of the FF industries to stifle competition, even as a healthy 72 y/o retiree, I may live long enough to see significant developments in the world of electricity generation - and utility-sized batteries by companies such as AES. 

Hopefully, there can be some reduction in reliance on the current massive and aging electrical grid systems that are so vulnerable to terrorist attacks.  (In just a few minutes, teams of terrorists with demolition explosives could take out quite a few remote high-voltage electrical transmission towers and disable sectors of the grid for days, weeks, or perhaps months.) 

Even here in Panama,with our extensive cloud cover, there are some really cool off-grid remote homesteads. 

Quoting WxGuy2014:
I think its safe to say. The atlantic hurricane season is over.


I agree...but I cannot release my Hurricane Season animation until November 30th. :P
Quoting 71. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

flurries light snow showers have stated here last half hr or so nothing staying ground is turning wet as they fall sunday will be first accumulation day here as air becomes colder and flurries will become squally in the colder flow over water which will cause areas of coverage to expand till at least tuseday night after midnight into wed morning


getting the same here in central Illinois .. 29 degrees and snow flurries .. not enough to stick ..
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
flurries light snow showers have stated here last half hr or so nothing staying ground is turning wet as they fall sunday will be first accumulation day here as air becomes colder and flurries will become squally in the colder flow over water which will cause areas of coverage to expand till at least tuseday night after midnight into wed morning


I would love to see a GOM setup with real cold Northwest winds so we could see some flurries over on the westcoast.

I know some old timers that have lived in Fort Myers all their lives and they told me they have seen snow flurries before.
But officially, I don't think its every snowed in Fort Myers. (I'd have to check to make sure).
Agreed, but the models seem to be progressively trending colder. Wow, even if the current GFS numbers verify, it would still be very "Januaryish."

Quoting 66. SFLWeatherman:

This is still a week out so a lot can change! but most of C FL and S FL do not get first frost until the end of December or January

Obama continues to stun politics with his profound regard for humanity and our host- this earth. No wonder almost half of Americans hate him.
..they all trap Heat

bring the freezing temps
Orleans Parish/Se La.
Freeze Warning

Statement as of 3:39 AM CST on November 13, 2014
...Freeze warning in effect from 11 PM this evening to 9 am CST Friday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a freeze warning...which is in effect from 11 PM this evening to 9 am CST Friday.

* Temperature...temperatures are expected to fall into the lower 30s overnight tonight...mainly across the West Bank and more rural areas of the South Shore.

* Duration...freezing temperatures could persist for 1 to 4 hours.

* Impacts...tender vegetation should be protected and animals brought inside or provided with other warm shelter.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other sensitive vegetation.
Quoting 71. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

flurries light snow showers have stated here last half hr or so nothing staying ground is turning wet as they fall sunday will be first accumulation day here as air becomes colder and flurries will become squally in the colder flow over water which will cause areas of coverage to expand till at least tuseday night after midnight into wed morning
Detroit Metro Airport picked up 0.1" of snow today, which is the first measurable snow of the season. The average first date of measurable snowfall at DTW is November 17th, so this is just a few days earlier than normal. I picked up 0.1" around 9:00am with the back side of an area of snow showers. More snow showers are moving ESE in SE MI, so I may be able to pick up another tenth if I get under a heavier snow shower.
Quoting 67. Sfloridacat5:



I wonder if we could get that wind to come a little more onshore and see some Ocean Effect snow showers?
That would be cool to see.


If the wind comes off the warmer oceans, it won't get that cold.
When did Fla become a punchline for climate change denial? I'll understand election and voting rights issues, but I'm a bit stumped on the former, as you can find that anywhere in the country.
ROKERTHON UPDATE: Al Roker has surpassed the 15 hour mark in his attempt to set a new world record by broadcasting weather reports for a continuous 34 hours. At this point Al still looks unstoppable and I believe the record will fall. Al is truly a great meteorologist and the hopes of the nation are with him in his endeavor.
Kissimmee might hit 33 degrees it very possible
Thank you Dr. Masters
Global Warming to Cause 'Explosive Thunderstorms' With 50% Increase in Lightning

Researchers looked to see if precipitation and cloud buoyancy is a predictor of lightning by observing strikes over 2011 to see if there was a correlation. Precipitation serves as a measure of how convective the atmosphere is and convection generates lightning.

The speeds of convective clouds – Cape – are worked out by balloon-borne instruments that are released around the US twice every day. By combining these measurements with data on precipitation and lightning strikes, researchers were able to conclude that 77% of the variations in strikes can be predicted from these two factors.

"We were blown away by how incredibly well that worked to predict lightning strikes," Romps said.

On average, climate models suggest a 11% increase in Cape with ever degree Celsius rise in global average temperature. It also assumes CO2 emissions rise in line with current levels. This means that by 2100, there will be a 50% increase in lightning strikes if the planet warms by 4C as is expected.

An increase in lightning strikes will result in more human injuries – hundreds of people are killed by strikes every year. It will also increase wildfires and generate more nitrogen oxides, which have a huge impact on the atmosphere.


Link
Quoting 30. WxGuy2014:

I think its safe to say. The atlantic hurricane season is over.


I would have to agree.... Thank goodness here is south Florida.
China has to shut down huge chunks of industry just to get air that you can see through. I'm glad we are not like them. I'm especially glad this might mean cleaner skies in Florida, where there is a sulfur dioxide brown bathtub ring in the sky from smog. Taking advantage of our copious sunshine and putting solar panels over the hundreds of square miles of asphalt shingles will lower demand and generate energy and construction jobs. The only folks suffering will be oil and gas, and conventional cars.
Lower emissions means cleaner water, some of the hydrogen cars even emit clean water.
Quoting 76. whitewabit:



getting the same here in central Illinois .. 29 degrees and snow flurries .. not enough to stick ..


I'm seeing the same in the STL metro.
Quoting 87. Llamaluvr:

ROKERTHON UPDATE: Al Roker has surpassed the 15 hour mark in his attempt to set a new world record by broadcasting weather reports for a continuous 34 hours. At this point Al still looks unstoppable and I believe the record will fall. Al is truly a great meteorologist and the hopes of the nation are with him in his endeavor.


I'm surprised Doc hasn't mentioned that. It's still weather related, right? Yes it is. Al see if he breaks the Rokerd. Ba dum tiss....
The warm pool at subsurface of the equatorial Pacific continues to grow making El Nino almost inevitable to be declared officially in the next few weeks.

Long hard freeze tonight with some possible teens to the north and possible record lows tonight.

Quoting 77. Sfloridacat5:



I would love to see a GOM setup with real cold Northwest winds so we could see some flurries over on the westcoast.

I know some old timers that have lived in Fort Myers all their lives and they told me they have seen snow flurries before.
But officially, I don't think its every snowed in Fort Myers. (I'd have to check to make sure).

I don't think it has officially snowed at the reporting stations in Miami or Fort Myers, though it definitely happened in both areas in 1977. 1977 is the only incidence of measurable snow that I am aware of in Orlando, but if you look at the hourly reports from that day (official reporting station) it only mentions light snow at 3:00 am.
41° and rain and in
Pensacola on November 14 in the middle of the day that is amazing!
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


I'm surprised Doc hasn't mentioned that. It's still weather related, right? Yes it is. Al see if he breaks the Rokerd. Ba dum tiss....


I've been watching Al on and off today mostly for the comedy of it.
He's saving up his 5 minute breaks. He's already saved up like 65 minutes. Later today or this evening he's going to take a nap.

About topics not mentioned

Winter Storm Bozeman for one.
Just shows how named Winter Storms really don't have the same effect as a named Tropical Storm.

It would be hard to imagine a named Tropical System making landfall in the U.S. and it not be the main focus of the current blog topic.

But I think people will be fine if they just listen to their local NWS for Winter weather advisories, watches, and warnings.

Quoting Llamaluvr:
ROKERTHON UPDATE: Al Roker has surpassed the 15 hour mark in his attempt to set a new world record by broadcasting weather reports for a continuous 34 hours. At this point Al still looks unstoppable and I believe the record will fall. Al is truly a great meteorologist and the hopes of the nation are with him in his endeavor.


Meh on his attempt. He's in a cushy studio environment. I broadcasted during Hurricane Irene for over 72 hours straight until I passed out in the front seat of my car. After an hour...I broadcasted again for another 12 hours straight.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
41° and rain and in
Pensacola on November 14 in the middle of the day that is amazing!


And its 81 at the same time in Fort Myers.
Quoting 100. PensacolaDoug:

41° and rain and in
Pensacola on November 14 in the middle of the day that is amazing!


Hard to believe. Beautiful here in Tampa.
Quoting SouthCentralTx:
Long hard freeze tonight with some possible teens to the north and possible record lows tonight.



I'll have to call my daughter at U.T. to make sure she's got plenty of warm clothes to wear.

Quoting 103. CycloneOz:



Meh on his attempt. He's in a cushy studio environment. I broadcasted during Hurricane Irene for over 72 hours straight until I passed out in the front seat of my car. After an hour...I broadcasted again for another 12 hours straight.


Tell us again about changing clothes in the car wash with the LIVEStream running too.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Hard to believe. Beautiful here in Tampa.


Yep, perfect beach day down here.


Quoting 109. Sfloridacat5:



Yep, perfect beach day down here.


I hear the beach will be full of snowbirds early this year some may even stay till late april
Quoting Patrap:


Tell us again about changing clothes in the car wash with the LIVEStream running too.


Reality is what I serve, sir. BTW...thank you for tuning in.

You know I got that record by a mile. :)
Quoting 103. CycloneOz:



Meh on his attempt. He's in a cushy studio environment. I broadcasted during Hurricane Irene for over 72 hours straight until I passed out in the front seat of my car. After an hour...I broadcasted again for another 12 hours straight.


Yeah, he's just sitting in a studio. I thought he'd be outside or something. I'm not sure if he's allowed any breaks though.
Quoting 105. luvtogolf:



Hard to believe. Beautiful here in Tampa.



Same in Palm Beach county
Quoting 110. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I hear the beach will be full of snowbirds early this year some may even stay till late april


lol, that's fine as long as they stay off our roads!!!!
Quoting 112. TimTheWxMan:



Yeah, he's just sitting in a studio. I thought he'd be outside or something. I'm not sure if he's allowed any breaks though.



I find it enjoyable.... Trust me, that record will get lost in all of the other inane records.Go for it Al
Quoting 109. Sfloridacat5:



Yep, perfect beach day down here.





Thanks for making me jealous!
Quoting 80. ohzone:
Obama continues to stun politics with his profound regard for humanity and our host- this earth. No wonder almost half of Americans hate him.
More like 75%
China must be laughing their as* off at Obama!!
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Yeah, he's just sitting in a studio. I thought he'd be outside or something. I'm not sure if he's allowed any breaks though.


He gets 5 minutes for every hour. He's saving them to take an hour nap.

I did not take any breaks. Nor did I have a producer or tech guy help keep me broadcasting.

I've done many marathon broadcasts that rival this one attempt of his...but I took it to another level in Hurricane Irene.

I also went viral. My broadcast went up on SKY news for 3-minutes uninterrupted. Over 500,000 people tuned in from 30 countries.

My ratings for that broadcast dominated all of the news networks and TWC.
Quoting 110. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I hear the beach will be full of snowbirds early this year some may even stay till late april


Been here in south Florida for over 30 years.... Never have seen the traffic this bad...More snowbirds than ever this year. And the new cars are not equipped with turn signals and have governors on them so they can't exceed 27 miles per hour...
I know, the Country is so worse off now than in Jan 09'

LOL
Quoting 119. gulfbreeze:

China must be laughing their as* off at Obama!!


Indeed, kinda like with RIck Scott, you know, the great environmentalist.


LOL

Quoting 122. Patrap:

I know, the Country is so worse off now than in Jan 09'

LOL



How so Pat? Stocks are at their highest, gas is cheap, and most people are working that choose to
Quoting 121. PalmBeachWeather:


Been here in south Florida for over 30 years.... Never have seen the traffic this bad...More snowbirds than ever this year. And the new cars are not equipped with turn signals and have governors on them so they can't exceed 27 miles per hour...
Thats what you get for having warm weather!!
Quoting 125. gulfbreeze:

Thats what you get for having warm weather!!


But I love it gulfbreeze ...Better than the alternative
Checked in on Al Roker and he was sitting in a leather chair doing the weather with a P.T. massaging his legs.

His legs and knees have about given up on him.
Global Warming to Cause 'Explosive Thunderstorms' With 50% Increase in Lightning
Hannah Osborne By Hannah Osborne
November 13, 2014 18:03 GM

Thunderstorms will become more explosive over the coming years as a result of global warming, scientists said.

Lightning strikes across the US will increase by 50% before 2100, according to research published in the journal Science.

David Romps and colleagues from the University of California, Berkeley, used precipitation predictions and cloud buoyancy from 11 different climate models to determine what impact warming temperatures will have on lightning strikes.

"With warming, thunderstorms become more explosive," Romps said. "This has to do with water vapor, which is the fuel for explosive deep convection in the atmosphere. Warming causes there to be more water vapor in the atmosphere, and if you have more fuel lying around, when you get ignition, it can go big time.

"Lightning is caused by charge separation within clouds, and to maximize charge separation, you have to loft more water vapor and heavy ice particles into the atmosphere. We already know that the faster the updrafts, the more lightning, and more precipitation, the more lightning.

..more:
Quoting 127. Sfloridacat5:

Checked in on Al Roker and he was sitting in a leather chair with a P.T. massaging his legs.

His legs and knees have about given up on him.



The knees would be my biggest problems....
Quoting 124. PalmBeachWeather:




How so Pat? Stocks are at their highest, gas is cheap, and most people are working that choose to



"SarcasM"

with a Large M.
Quoting 124. PalmBeachWeather:




How so Pat? Stocks are at their highest, gas is cheap, and most people are working that choose to



He was being sarcastic.

Quoting 130. Patrap:



"SarcasM"

with a Large M.



Ooops... Brain is on idle today after a hectic day yesterday



Australians bury heads in sand to mock government climate stance
Reuters By Sue-Lin Wong
8 hours ago



SYDNEY (Reuters) - More than 400 protesters stuck their heads in the sand on Australia's Bondi Beach on Thursday, mocking the government's reluctance to put climate change on the agenda of a G20 summit this weekend.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott's perceived failure to address climate change is all the more galling in the wake of an agreement between the United States and China on Wednesday to limit their carbon emissions, they said.

"Obama's on board, Xi Jinping's on board, everyone's on board except one man," activist Pat Norman, 28, bellowed into a megaphone on the Sydney beach.

"Tony Abbott!" the protesters shouted back.

Folks with babies, school children and working people in business suits dug holes on the beach and stuck their heads in them. The ostrich is said to stick its head in the sand in futile bid to avoid danger.

View galleryA group of around 400 demonstrators participate in …
A group of around 400 demonstrators participate in a protest by burying their heads in the sand at S …
Ornithologists say the African bird does no such thing but that didn't spoil the cheeky protest.

"Wiggle ya bums if you feel like it," Norman shouted over the megaphone.

A few athletic types did handstands with their heads in the sand.

Abbott called climate change science "crap" in 2009 and said coal was "good for humanity". Australia repealed a tax on greenhouse gas emissions in July, the only country to reverse action on climate change.

Justin Field, 36, a former army intelligence officer who is running for a seat in state parliament for the Green Party, said

Australia had to act.

"To be so far behind the rest of the developed world embarrasses progressive Australia," he said.

(Editing by Robert Birsel)
Quoting 126. PalmBeachWeather:


But I love it gulfbreeze ...Better than the alternative
Thats true it's been to cold in NW Fl. the last couple of years. I hate any thing under 50.
Cold rain here in the Panhandle. It's unusual to have it raining below 50 degrees at any time during the winter along this part of the Gulf Coast. A sign of what's to come?
Quoting Ossqss:
Obama, not the US, reached an agreement with China. This is not binding or a treaty as that would have to go through congress, and we know that is not going to happen. It is only smoke and mirrors politics. Even if it was enforceable,which it is not, it would only be punitive to the US and would remain irrelevant to China as they fully expected. What it actually is, is a waste of time and attention.


I've read the White House press release three times and it's still not clear to me exactly what China is supposed to do. It looks like they are allowed to continue unrestrained carbon emissions until 2030, although they are supposed to try really hard to cut back a little earlier than 2030. There's nothing about what China has pledged to do after 2030, only that they are supposed to have 20% of their power come from renewable sources. It appears that China actually hasn't agreed to do anything while we cut carbon pollution by 26% to 28% by 2025. It looks like the most action China had to take with this agreement was get President Xi Jinping up on that stage and shake hands with President Obama.

This has a zero chance of ever getting by the Senate and becoming a treaty.
Quoting 98. SouthCentralTx:

Long hard freeze tonight with some possible teens to the north and possible record lows tonight.




Its supposed to get down to 24 at my house tonight. Last evening I spent a couple hours in the 40 degree attic fixing a bummed inducer motor on my furnace that we found out about because the heater wouldn't turn on yesterday. Funny how on Monday it was in the 80s and the AC was on haha.
I wonder if snow/frozen precipitation regularly came down to the Gulf coast/N. FL during the Little Ice Age?
When one filters their every thought, premise and logic thru a filter of ignorance...well thats what one getz usually.

Been my experience to witness.


....Live long and Prosper
Quoting opal92nwf:
Cold rain here in the Panhandle. It's unusual to have it raining below 50 degrees at any time during the winter along this part of the Gulf Coast. A sign of what's to come?
44 degrees here with an on and off light rain and a stiff northerly wind. We have gotten 0.09" today. Not a toad choker but better than nothing. I was surprised to see the showers develop, and it's only been a narrow swath that at least gave me something.
142. eddye
im ready for the cold weather
143. eddye
bring the 32 degree down
Quoting 128. Patrap:

Global Warming to Cause 'Explosive Thunderstorms' With 50% Increase in Lightning
Hannah Osborne By Hannah Osborne
November 13, 2014 18:03 GM

Thunderstorms will become more explosive over the coming years as a result of global warming, scientists said.

Lightning strikes across the US will increase by 50% before 2100, according to research published in the journal Science.

David Romps and colleagues from the University of California, Berkeley, used precipitation predictions and cloud buoyancy from 11 different climate models to determine what impact warming temperatures will have on lightning strikes.

"With warming, thunderstorms become more explosive," Romps said. "This has to do with water vapor, which is the fuel for explosive deep convection in the atmosphere. Warming causes there to be more water vapor in the atmosphere, and if you have more fuel lying around, when you get ignition, it can go big time.

"Lightning is caused by charge separation within clouds, and to maximize charge separation, you have to loft more water vapor and heavy ice particles into the atmosphere. We already know that the faster the updrafts, the more lightning, and more precipitation, the more lightning.

..more:

Hmmm, like the monster super hurricanes that were supposedly going to be around every corner in the Atlantic after the 2005 season???

Yep, that was the overall sentiment back then. I take this with less than a grain of salt.
Quoting 120. CycloneOz:



He gets 5 minutes for every hour. He's saving them to take an hour nap.

I did not take any breaks. Nor did I have a producer or tech guy help keep me broadcasting.

I've done many marathon broadcasts that rival this one attempt of his...but I took it to another level in Hurricane Irene.

I also went viral. My broadcast went up on SKY news for 3-minutes uninterrupted. Over 500,000 people tuned in from 30 countries.

My ratings for that broadcast dominated all of the news networks and TWC.


Maybe next time you do something like that, have one of those GWR officials go with you so you can be in the GWR.
Quoting 143. eddye:

bring the 32 degree down

Where are you?
Quoting 133. Patrap:

"To be so far behind the rest of the developed world embarrasses progressive Australia(Editing by Robert Birsel)
mom got somem special planned for them
All 3 Dogs now in SWEATER mode here.

New Orleans, LA
Uptown
Flash Flood WatchFLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1021 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014 SCZ030-141600- /O.NEW.KCAE.FF.A.0001.141113T1521Z-141116T0000Z/ /00000.0.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/ AIKEN- 1021 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR HORSE CREEK DOWNSTREAM OF THE LANGLEY POND DAM IN AIKEN COUNTY. * THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * AT 1013 AM EST...THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT THE LANGLEY POND DAM HAD A STRUCTURAL CONCERN. * AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE DAM INCLUDE LANGLEY AND BATH NEAR HORSE CREEK. STATE ROADS 254 AND 67 NEAR HORSE CREEK COULD BE IMPACTED. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD A FLASH FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED. DAM SAFETY EXPERTS...WITH STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY SERVICES... ARE MONITORING THE DAM AND WILL ISSUE A PUBLIC STATEMENT AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. PLAN NOW SO YOU WILL KNOW WHAT TO DO IN AN EMERGENCY. KEEP INFORMED BY LISTENING TO LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION FOR STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF PUBLIC SAFETY OFFICIALS. $$
Quoting 120. CycloneOz:



He gets 5 minutes for every hour. He's saving them to take an hour nap.

I did not take any breaks. Nor did I have a producer or tech guy help keep me broadcasting.

I've done many marathon broadcasts that rival this one attempt of his...but I took it to another level in Hurricane Irene.

I also went viral. My broadcast went up on SKY news for 3-minutes uninterrupted. Over 500,000 people tuned in from 30 countries.

My ratings for that broadcast dominated all of the news networks and TWC.


and now you can't even get 1 + on here...hehehehe
Quoting 144. opal92nwf:


Hmmm, like the monster super hurricanes that were supposedly going to be around every corner in the Atlantic after the 2005 season???

Yep, that was the overall sentiment back then. I take this with less than a grain of salt.
no that's already occurring with lightening and extending global coverage as for hurricanes its not that there will be more they will just become more powerful and more wet and we have already witness that Haiyan was the first the one up Alaska way just recently is another there have been many more in between

faster to dev as well almost rapid speed like

over time I feel everything will become faster and faster
Leonardo Dicaprio: Let's Not Wait Until We Pass More Tipping Points
Posted: 11/12/2014 2:45 pm EST


Around 250 million years ago most life was extinguished from our planet in a cataclysmic extinction event. Today, it could happen again.

That's the story Leonard DiCaprio tells in Last Hours, another installment of a four-part climate change documentary series directed by Leila Conners, the director of the 11th Hour film.

"Consider this," DiCaprio states at the start of the film, "Nearly all life on Earth could go extinct because of manmade climate change."

The film then takes us back to the Permian Mass Extinction 250 million years ago, an extinction event that wiped out 95% of all life on the planet. Scientists, many of whom appear in the film, are just beginning to understand what caused the Permian extinction, and it's very bad news: that wipeout of life on Earth was caused by rapid global warming.

As the film explains, science shows that massive volcanic eruptions near Siberia released enormous amounts of greenhouse gasses, sending the planet into a warming spiral. As temperatures increased, more potent greenhouse gasses like methane that had been locked away in ice under the sea for hundreds of millions of years melted and bubbled up into the air as well, pushing us past a tipping point into irreversible and catastrophic global warming.

Last Hours argues this may be happening again.

Modern society's addiction to burning fossil fuels is releasing large amounts of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere in much the same way as were released during the volcanic eruptions of the Permian extinction. These gasses during the Permian then warmed the oceans, leading to releases of methane that spiked global warming.

Dr. Michael Benton with the University of Bristol explains in the film, "Looking at these ancient events shows us times of global warming and the atmosphere doesn't care whether the carbon dioxide comes from human activity or from a volcano. It has the same end effect."

Climate change is too often talked about in terms of dollars and cents. But as Last Hours argues, it must be talked about in terms of human survival. The film paints an alarming picture of the future if humans don't respond by reducing carbon emissions today.

In a call to action at the end of the film, DiCaprio states, "The world community must come together, step forward, and take decisive action." He goes on to call for "the largest movement in human history" to respond to climate change.

"It could mean our very survival," DiCaprio says.

Last Hours is a warning that tells us all just how high the stakes are on a planet with rapidly increasing temperatures.

Quoting 127. Sfloridacat5:

Checked in on Al Roker and he was sitting in a leather chair doing the weather with a P.T. massaging his legs.

His legs and knees have about given up on him.
He is a dynamo who doesn't know the meaning of quit. I predict he'll shatter the record!
The temperatures have not surpassed 44 degrees.Someone lied..
Quoting capeflorida:


and now you can't even get 1 + on here...hehehehe


It's a "Whatever Kinda World!" :)
157. txjac
Quoting 152. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no that's already occurring with lightening and extending global coverage as for hurricanes its not that there will be more they will just become more powerful and more wet and we have already witness that Haiyan was the first the one up Alaska way just recently is another there have been many more in between

faster to dev as well almost rapid speed like

over time I feel everything will become faster and faster


It already has. We've become a selfish, instantaneous society in the US. Nothing is ever quick enough.
Don't you remember when you were a kid and you had time for after school activities, homework, dinner with the family and TV time? It just seems like there are never enough hours in the day.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Maybe next time you do something like that, have one of those GWR officials go with you so you can be in the GWR.


A George Thorogood song comes to mind.

I Chase Alone
Blue Norther:

Borger, TX had a record high of 85 on Monday ahead of the front and recorded a record low of 15 degrees yesterday morning which equates to a 70 degree temperature change in just a little over 24 hrs.
Quoting Llamaluvr:
He is a dynamo who doesn't know the meaning of quit. I predict he'll shatter the record!


Technically he's already set the record. The person who supposedly did 24 hours the time was found to be unofficial.
But he still plans to go for 34 hours (until tomorrow morning).

He should do fine. He had his legs massaged and then someone massage his back using a massage chair where you rest your head. These are not considered breaks, because he continues to do weather while he's being massaged.

A nice hour nap and he should be good to go. Being able to sit when he needs to sit is what will save him.

Quoting Xulonn:

The U.S. government and big business are still beholden to the fossil fuel companies, and the rest of the world is pulling away. 

Correct me if I am wrong, but I see the backing of Solyndra, which was initiated by the Bush Administration and implemented by the Obama Administration is a good example of false equivalence.  The U.S. backs the oil and coal industries with massive subsidies and tax breaks, and their toadies whine when even modest breaks and support are given to alternative cleaner energy companies.  So when China gave even more massive support to their solar companies and crushed Solyndra, the U.S. ignorati whined about Solyndra and Obama without even considering the international economic facts of the situation.  This is not how a nation leads the world. 

Here's a LINK to information on international solar implementation (about a year old) that shows how far the U.S. is from being a leader - its traditional technical and bragging rights position. 

I find it ironic that the U.S is still a leader in academia with respect to science and technology of all sorts, but is way behind in the implementation of those technologies.  And that Elon Musk, a South Africa-born immigrant scientist/inventor/entrepreneur  - and not an American-born good-old-boy - is at the top of U.S. field of people bringing the new technologies to fruition.  It's amazing how he has succeeded in his ventures when the conservative business dinosaurs would rather crush him than beat him with better technology, efficiency and non-predatory business practices.

However, I have faith in Elon Musk, and the need for better batteries is a big part of his business these days.  He has closed the deal on the land, and construction has begun on his  $5 BILLION battery plant near Reno, Nevada - a partnership with Panasonic.  This will double the global production of lithium batteries, and reduce the cost of his cars.  Also, AES corporation is doing big utility-class lithium battery systems for load balancing.  The 6,500 new jobs will be more than 1/3 of the number of direct employees in the coal industry for the entire state of Kentucky. 

And lets hope that Mr. Musk will provide electric buses or trolleys to get his employees out to the remote factory site - and pay them enough to all buy electric cars. 

This is not only a great opportunity for the transition to more solar and wind, but also for encouraging community transition to a more efficient transportation network.  (Of course, due to fair employment laws, there will probably still be a few guys driving to work with their "coal roller" diesel pickups, but there would be an interesting peer-pressure situation for this green technology factory in the heart of redneck country.)


I truly think that in spite of the efforts of the FF industries to stifle competition, even as a healthy 72 y/o retiree, I may live long enough to see significant developments in the world of electricity generation - and utility-sized batteries by companies such as AES. 

Hopefully, there can be some reduction in reliance on the current massive and aging electrical grid systems that are so vulnerable to terrorist attacks.  (In just a few minutes, teams of terrorists with demolition explosives could take out quite a few remote high-voltage electrical transmission towers and disable sectors of the grid for days, weeks, or perhaps months.) 

Even here in Panama,with our extensive cloud cover, there are some really cool off-grid remote homesteads. 
162. eddye
southflacat 5 wow upper 20 for orlando
Quoting eddye:
southflacat 5 wow upper 20 for orlando


We shall see.
Things will surely change by next Wednesday. But the trend has been colder with the latest runs.

The record for next Wednesday is 36 for Orlando. We could see a lot of records broken next week.
First snow of the season here in PA. I am loving every second of it.
Quoting 152. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no that's already occurring with lightening and extending global coverage as for hurricanes its not that there will be more they will just become more powerful and more wet and we have already witness that Haiyan was the first the one up Alaska way just recently is another there have been many more in between

faster to dev as well almost rapid speed like

Be careful with attributing every event to global warming. There's historical precedent for systems as strong as the Bering Bomb that occurred a few days ago. Haiyan happened to take advantage of very warm waters and an ideal upper-air setup to become the monster it did, such as Tip and Wilma did before it.
Quoting 155. washingtonian115:

The temperatures have not surpassed 44 degrees.Someone lied..


A weather forecast that has actually been a little off. Get out the pitchforks and torches.. that's a first!

Meanwhile waiting to see first DC metro flakes. The wait won't be much longer, maybe just hours.
In deference to those north of us, I propose that all south of the Palm Beach/ Ft Myers line refrain from posting our weather stats for the next 7 days. ;-)
I like Al (Roker), but someone really should talk to him about the proper meaning of the term "Polar Vortex".



Record low is 39 degrees here in Fort Myers Next Wednesday. GFS is showing upper 30s for the area.

It's hard to get down in the 30s here due to the river and proximity to the GOM.
So I dought we'll get that cold.
Quoting 168. Sfloridacat5:

I like Al (Roker), but someone really should talk to him about the proper meaning of the term "Polar Vortex".






I think that goes for most media outlets. Sensationalism at it's best.
Hey everyone,
Does anyone know how I can change my user name on here? I'm originally from Jacksonville, FL but moved to Greer/Greenville, SC area and I want to change my user name to EricfromGreenville and I can't see anywhere to change my user name. Do I have to re register with a new user name and all or can I use my existing profile to change my user name?

Eric
Hum .. Tip, Wilma and now Haiyan storm getting stronger .. kind of makes Keep's statement in line to climate change ..

Quoting 152. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no that's already occurring with lightening and extending global coverage as for hurricanes its not that there will be more they will just become more powerful and more wet and we have already witness that Haiyan was the first the one up Alaska way just recently is another there have been many more in between

faster to dev as well almost rapid speed like


Be careful with attributing every event to global warming. There's historical precedent for systems as strong as the Bering Bomb that occurred a few days ago. Haiyan happened to take advantage of very warm waters and an ideal upper-air setup to become the monster it did, such as Tip and Wilma did before it.
31 degrees in my area, possible flurries this afternoon and evening. Kinda concerned about wwwwwwwiiiiiiiiinnnnnndddd cccchhhhhiiiilllllssssssssss right now.
Eric you can't change your handle. Either keep the old handle or create a new one.
The NOAA satellites hack has had serious effects on data dissemination. The NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry normally updates every week or so. It was last updated on September 19th. I wonder if the data for late September, October, and November is lost. Click on any of the 'global mean sea level' Text (CSV) links towards the bottom of the page and you will see that the last data point is 2014.695
Wow, 43 degrees now!? and a nice precipitation band approaching.

This is very rare for any winter in the FL Panhandle.
From what I understand, indications are that the Chinese did the hack on the NOAA satellites.
Quoting opal92nwf:
Wow, 43 degrees now!? and a nice precipitation band approaching.

This is very rare for any winter in the FL Panhandle.


Wunderground is showing 100% chance of rain for Panama City for Monday.
You don't see that everyday (100% chance of rain 3-4 days in advance)

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The NOAA satellites hack has had serious effects on data dissemination. The NOAA Laboratory for Satellite Altimetry normally updates every week or so. It was last updated on September 19th. I wonder if the data for late September, October, and November is lost. Click on any of the 'global mean sea level' Text (CSV) links towards the bottom of the page and you will see that the last data point is 2014.695


Luckily...the NESDIS servers storing the GOES East imagery came back online.

My Hurricane Season animation is going to be ready on November 30th.
Can you find the mountains?

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Wunderground is showing 100% chance of rain for Panama City for Monday.
You don't see that everyday (100% chance of rain 3-4 days in advance)



That is unusual.

But it pales against the prediction of a 100% chance of global warming in 100 years.
I guess Al is taking his nap now. He's been off the air for a while.
Quoting 170. SouthCentralTx:



I think that goes for most media outlets. Sensationalism at it's best.
wait till he gets to hr 32 maybe a bit more fun by then
Cody what hour does the image in #183 represent?
From Miami NWS Discussion...

BY MONDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY,
BUT DIGGING QUITE A WAYS SOUTH. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOOKS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE A WEAK BOUNDARY/TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY MORNING, A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST, NEAR THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH,
BRINGING IT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US AS A COLD FRONT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING, THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE MOVING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING AT THIS POINT, WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY
FASTER, HAVING IT CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY MID DAY TUESDAY. THE
ECMWF IS JUST A FEW HOURS LATER, BRINGING IT THROUGH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE ECMWF DOES HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT,
WHERE THE GFS HAS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY DRY FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA. HAVE 40 TO 50 POPS INT HE FORECAST FOR THE DAY ON TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

BEHIND THE FRONT A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
MODELS CURRENTLY SHOWING HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST AND UPPER 60S FOR THE INTERIOR. LOWS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN
THE 40S IN THE INTERIOR AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
Quoting Doppler22:
First snow of the season here in PA. I am loving every second of it.

Quoting 185. Sfloridacat5:

I guess Al is taking his nap now. He's been off the air for a while.



That's a long time for an old guy
Quoting 187. BaltimoreBrian:

Cody what hour does the image in #183 represent?

20z.
Quoting 190. PalmBeachWeather:




That's a long time for an old guy
I am sure there keeping a eye on him
Quoting 180. BaltimoreBrian:

From what I understand, indications are that the Chinese did it.



Is this another Chinese drywall joke?
Thanks Cody.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:



That's a long time for an old guy


I think its funny that he left his mic on when he went to the bathroom.
It gave a new meaning to "live stream."
Quoting 181. Sfloridacat5:



Wunderground is showing 100% chance of rain for Panama City for Monday.
You don't see that everyday (100% chance of rain 3-4 days in advance)




There is an active low pressure there, which is quite typical for this time of the year. November is the rainest month of the year for most of Panama.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:


I would have to agree.... Thank goodness here is south Florida.
Quite one for many, but for us in the Eastern Caribbean an interesting one, with a few weak tropical storms and Big Surprise Gonzalo... lets see what's cooking for next year..., not expecting much...
Quoting maxcrc:


There is an active low pressure there, which is quite typical for this time of the year. November is the rainest month of the year for most of Panama.


I think s(he) was referring to Panama City, FL.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I think s(he) was referring to Panama City, FL.


Yes, I was referring to Florida.
100% chance of rain Monday for Panama City, FL.
Quoting 137. calkevin77:



Its supposed to get down to 24 at my house tonight. Last evening I spent a couple hours in the 40 degree attic fixing a bummed inducer motor on my furnace that we found out about because the heater wouldn't turn on yesterday. Funny how on Monday it was in the 80s and the AC was on haha.


You know you're in the midwest when you use both your AC and your furnace on the same day.

You know you're even deeper in when you go from one to the other and back again the same day.

Never had to do this in DC but I have been compelled to use AC in December and January (both in 1998)

Quoting 164. Doppler22:

First snow of the season here in PA. I am loving every second of it.


Yup. Saw sleet, rain, and now it's all snow here in Millersville, Logan. :D

My little brother is expected to see snow Sunday into Monday as well, which is incredibly rare for Nashville to get it that early. The earliest snow day for me was in December.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I guess Al is taking his nap now. He's been off the air for a while.


What he needs is what I had...no hope of escape.

A TV studio is a mighty safe place these days.
Quoting 178. CycloneOz:

The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills participate in their 1st playoff game tonight.

GO FINZ!


I follow the Washington football team.

What is this word "playoffs"?

Doesn't the season just end in late December and we're done??
Quoting 201. Astrometeor:



Yup. Saw sleet, rain, and now it's all snow here in Millersville, Logan. :D

My little brother is expected to see snow Sunday into Monday as well, which is incredibly rare for Nashville to get it that early. The earliest snow day for me was in December.


Google "Diary of a Snow Shoveler" for a different take on snow.
How'd you manage 29 wabit, we only got to 28 S of ya today, down to 26 now? Saw graupel around 9, then flurries as went to lunch Tim. Dew pt has come up to 23 from high teens a couple of hours ago, so maybe some more? Light W-NW winds, pressure up to 30.37". Current forecast has Tues morning as our cold one, 15 w/ a 27 daytime high. May get first measurable snow in S C IL this weekend too.
Quoting 201. Astrometeor:



Yup. Saw sleet, rain, and now it's all snow here in Millersville, Logan. :D

My little brother is expected to see snow Sunday into Monday as well, which is incredibly rare for Nashville to get it that early. The earliest snow day for me was in December.


DC metro sees it's first flakes in November most years (about 75%)
Quoting Patrap:
Leonardo Dicaprio: Let's Not Wait Until We Pass More Tipping Points
Posted: 11/12/2014 2:45 pm EST


Around 250 million years ago most life was extinguished from our planet in a cataclysmic extinction event. Today, it could happen again.

That's the story Leonard DiCaprio tells in Last Hours, another installment of a four-part climate change documentary series directed by Leila Conners, the director of the 11th Hour film.

"Consider this," DiCaprio states at the start of the film, "Nearly all life on Earth could go extinct because of manmade climate change."

The film then takes us back to the Permian Mass Extinction 250 million years ago, an extinction event that wiped out 95% of all life on the planet. Scientists, many of whom appear in the film, are just beginning to understand what caused the Permian extinction, and it's very bad news: that wipeout of life on Earth was caused by rapid global warming.

As the film explains, science shows that massive volcanic eruptions near Siberia released enormous amounts of greenhouse gasses, sending the planet into a warming spiral. As temperatures increased, more potent greenhouse gasses like methane that had been locked away in ice under the sea for hundreds of millions of years melted and bubbled up into the air as well, pushing us past a tipping point into irreversible and catastrophic global warming.

Last Hours argues this may be happening again.

Modern society's addiction to burning fossil fuels is releasing large amounts of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere in much the same way as were released during the volcanic eruptions of the Permian extinction. These gasses during the Permian then warmed the oceans, leading to releases of methane that spiked global warming.

Dr. Michael Benton with the University of Bristol explains in the film, "Looking at these ancient events shows us times of global warming and the atmosphere doesn't care whether the carbon dioxide comes from human activity or from a volcano. It has the same end effect."

Climate change is too often talked about in terms of dollars and cents. But as Last Hours argues, it must be talked about in terms of human survival. The film paints an alarming picture of the future if humans don't respond by reducing carbon emissions today.

In a call to action at the end of the film, DiCaprio states, "The world community must come together, step forward, and take decisive action." He goes on to call for "the largest movement in human history" to respond to climate change.

"It could mean our very survival," DiCaprio says.

Last Hours is a warning that tells us all just how high the stakes are on a planet with rapidly increasing temperatures.

Are you kidding me why even post something like this with his mansions and yacht what about his carbon footprint
18Z GFS
Here's Panama City's 100% chance of rain.

18Z GFS for Wednesday

28 - 31 degrees for Orlando, which would smash the old record if it were to verify.

Quoting 183. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Can you find the mountains?


what happern to the mountains?
Quoting 166. georgevandenberghe:



A weather forecast that has actually been a little off. Get out the pitchforks and torches.. that's a first!

Meanwhile waiting to see first DC metro flakes. The wait won't be much longer, maybe just hours.



We have had snow flying in the mountains west of DC since noon. No accumulation at all, just blowing snow and very cold. We might get a small amount Sunday, the forecast is still up for debate. Welcome winter, blah blah and humbug.
Quoting 178. CycloneOz:

The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills participate in their 1st playoff game tonight.

GO FINZ!

Miami Dolphins will win the game!!
I'll just get my weather forecast from Leonardo,sorry NOAA.
Roker back to streaming live.

And according to Al, the "Polar Vortex" is traveling all over the country.

He's also losing his voice from talking so much (over 19 hour mark).
Quoting 209. Sfloridacat5:

18Z GFS for Wednesday

28 - 31 degrees for Orlando, which would smash the old record if it were to verify.



Quoting 214. Sfloridacat5:

Roker back to streaming live.

And according to Al, the "Polar Vortex" is traveling all over the country.


It's the North American Tour, featuring POOOOO-lar VOOORRRR-Tex! Cyclone Bomb and the Winterapalypse Sisters playing as second featured act!!
Quoting 205. dabirds:

How'd you manage 29 wabit, we only got to 28 S of ya today, down to 26 now? Saw graupel around 9, then flurries as went to lunch Tim. Dew pt has come up to 23 from high teens a couple of hours ago, so maybe some more? Light W-NW winds, pressure up to 30.37". Current forecast has Tues morning as our cold one, 15 w/ a 27 daytime high. May get first measurable snow in S C IL this weekend too.


I remember the very first time the word "graupel" was used on these blogs...gawd I feel old.
The Lake Effect snow machine will be going over the next week.
Quoting 216. aquak9:



It's the North American Tour, featuring POOOOO-lar VOOORRRR-Tex! Cyclone Bomb and the Winterapalypse Sisters playing as second featured act!!

TICKETS ON SALE NOW 99.99 GET EM FAST WON'T LAST LONG
Quoting 204. georgevandenberghe:



Google "Diary of a Snow Shoveler" for a different take on snow.


Hehe, that was funny.

Snopes has it
222. yoboi
Quoting 130. Patrap:



"SarcasM"

with a Large M.




Jarvis??? can you give me an up to date C02 report from uptown???? TIA
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Rooks Rike Ra Rartic Routbreak Rasn't Rotten Ro Rorida Ret!
(Looks like the artic outbreak hasn't gotten to florida yet!
Google "Diary of a Snow Shoveler" for a different take on snow.
i have the same problem with sunshine, sometimes.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

TICKETS ON SALE NOW 99.99 GET EM FAST WON'T LAST LONG

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!
*buys enough for the bloggers who have not ignored me*
Quoting 218. Sfloridacat5:

The Lake Effect snows machine will be going over the next week.


ya snow machine will be kicking more so late sat all day sunday as colder upper layer thermals move across lakes

we have 60 percent chance of flurries on sunday 60 percent chance of snow Monday and 40 percent chance flurries tuseday

looks like sunday Monday will be the best chance for snow accumulation days right now anyway

229. yoboi
Quoting 144. opal92nwf:


Hmmm, like the monster super hurricanes that were supposedly going to be around every corner in the Atlantic after the 2005 season???

Yep, that was the overall sentiment back then. I take this with less than a grain of salt.



Yep majors hitting the U.S. not...........
Quoting aquak9:


NO, he Will Not Stop It.
Quoting 231. yoboi:




Looking for the missing heat??????
I found it

Quoting 219. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



KOTG,
What exactly is going on with the temps "above" the 49th parallel?
235. flsky
The globe's incredible cloud formations
Link
Quoting yoboi:



Yep majors hitting the U.S. not...........
Don't forget about snow will be a thing of the past



only few inches of snow for new haven,conn
Quoting 217. aquak9:



I remember the very first time the word "graupel" was used on these blogs...gawd I feel old.
I remember the first time the word "troll" was used. I AM old. Lpl

In central OK today, temp got above freezing and the N wind is blowing only about 8 mph. Sunny. Nice!




watching the rain and snow line tonight!
Quoting 217. aquak9:



I remember the very first time the word "graupel" was used on these blogs...gawd I feel old.


217. aquak9
Haven't seen much of you for the last 3 year.
Thought perhaps you might have reincarnated?

Good to know you just feel "old."
Saturday: A broad area of snow will spread across the central Plains, Missouri Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley, spreading to the Great Lakes Saturday evening. A second area of snow will plunge southward from central Rockies and Plains along a reinforcing blast of arctic air. Sunday: An expansive area of light snow may fall from parts of the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and northern New England. Monday: A stripe of snow may fall on the backside of advancing, reinforcing cold front in parts of the Ohio Valley and interior Northeast.

While not a widespread threat at this time, we can't rule out some patchy areas of sleet and/or freezing rain along the southern edge of the precipitation shield from the southern Plains to parts of Tennessee and Kentucky.

Indeed, the exact placement of the sub-freezing surface air Saturday through Monday remains a bit uncertain, typical of any winter forecast this far out.

This is particularly the case regarding the rain/snow line in the Northeast on Monday. If cold air remains more stubbornly in place closer to the I-95 corridor, accumulating snow would occur closer to that heavily-populated region Monday. If not, rain would be the dominant precipitation.

Potential Impact: How Much Snow?
Snowfall accumulations in most low-elevation areas should remain less than 6 inches.

The best chance of over 6 inches of snow would be in the mountains and adjacent Front Range of Colorado and northern New Mexico, a few localized spots in the central Plains, and the mountains of Upstate New York and northern New England.

Atmospheric moisture may be modest in the cold air, resulting in light accumulations. Without strong low pressure forming along the front, deeper moisture may not wrap into the cold air.

That's not to say there wouldn't be significant impacts, however.

It doesn't take much snow to slicken roads, especially in areas less accustomed to frequent snow where fewer roads may be untreated. Even pre-treated roads could refreeze as colder air spills in later in the weekend.
Quoting 233. CycloneOz:



And when they were done...they got in their cars and drove away.


I'm not convinced that they all went home by car. Regardless, I don't think that these people were urging everyone to stop driving cars. Their point is probably that we need to accept the reality of the problem and switch more to alternative energy sources, and that we need to stop making excuses, such as with statements like "they got in their cars and drove away", which would seem like a valid excuse for some people who are set against taking action and are looking for any excuse for that, but would not seem like a valid excuse for people who accept the reality of the problem and who are wiling to take appropriate action. Are you suggesting that the people in the photograph are not in favor of taking at least some significant action? I'm sure that they aren't looking for excuses for not taking any significant action. Who all on here are looking for excuses to not take any significant action?
Quoting 209. Sfloridacat5:

18Z GFS for Wednesday

28 - 31 degrees for Orlando, which would smash the old record if it were to verify.



I doubt Orlando will get below freezing. Even with the most intense cold events that have dropped rural interior areas of Central Florida into the low 20's or even below 20 still make it hard for freezing temps in Orlando. You can thank the explosion in urban growth in Orlando and thus the expansion of the urban heat island, which makes it harder for events that used to produce freezing temps in the past in Orlando to still do so.


Still, forecasters in Central Florida are being overly conservative with the event. I saw the local mets showing mid-upper 60's for highs in Tampa With upper 40's for lows. Model guidance is 10 degrees colder than that right now. I understand the hesitance given its only November, but that's overly hesitant to go 10 degrees below guidance.

At any rate. The GFS has 24 for Tallahassee and the Euro has low 20's, both models show highs staying near or below 50. Record max highs during this period are in the mid 50's and the record low is 27. Guidance is coming in at least 3 degrees below the records. This may be too early to say if it will really be this anomalously cold. But even still, the fact the the numbers are coming in that cold means we are in for a significant winter like cold event in November.


What the models are showing would even be solid cold event for January in Florida.
000
FXUS62 KTAE 132103
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
403 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2014

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Starting on Sunday, the broad upper-level trough will begin to
amplify as two shortwaves dive southeast out of the Four Corners
region and the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. At the same time, a
weak southern stream anomaly will initiate Gulf cyclogenesis along
the TX/LA border which will eventually link up with the amplifying
northern stream trough and move through the Tri-State region late
Sunday night through Monday. This system will bring us our best
chance for rain in a while, with average accumulations between 1-2
inches expected, at least across the western half of the region. In
it`s wake, cold Arctic high pressure will plunge southeast into the
region and likely bring us the coldest air of the season. Confidence
continues to increase that much of the region will experience lows
in the mid- to-upper 20s Tuesday night and possibly again on
Wednesday night.

Nuthin...



But the Western Caribbean almost always has a little Eye Candy....:)

248. vis0
i know i mention "Galacsics" but a few yrs ago a replies  i received
from a wxu member (that was not centered on my grammar) was that via my
theory (ies) of a continuous stream of cooler air a device i created
can generate within a subatomic level would be impossible at a
"specific plateau of  cold" going upwards into the atmospheres. Since i
no longer use wxu if the member wants to read this (storms on a far
planet) the temps there show it can be done, how? not understood yet as that's how good science works first find, study, study, study years later theories will come up.  i figure its being
done as physics does what i call "intrÆcts" with the part of science i
call "Galacsics", as my invention(s) do the same at a much more humble
rate. Eventually a Physics explanation will be reported but it will
have "holes" in it till someone discovers the dimension beyond
"quantum" (i call Galacsics) as i state quantum are temporary bridges
that cannot last no more than 9 to 11 times its physical counterpart
towards the physical dimension and no more than 3 to 4 its Galasical
counterpart ...oh wait that's not known yet forget the latter.

Apology
if you dislike my theory but its on weather (not arguing for arguments sake, nor clip & posting 10 times the same update, nor posting NOAA satellite maps i would add my own filters or use the sat imagery to alert of a POI & explain my "weather influencing" device and think, one day when
some else creates what i created lets hope they use it to help balance
the mess humankind has made of its mother's home (Earth) she (mother nature) gives you all you can eat, a place to sleep, medicine, a place to have adventures, what a mess how
disrespectful. ,peace
Quoting 121. PalmBeachWeather:



Been here in south Florida for over 30 years.... Never have seen the traffic this bad...More snowbirds than ever this year. And the new cars are not equipped with turn signals and have governors on them so they can't exceed 27 miles per hour...


Don't forget driving on the wrong side of the road, or plowing into a building because the "break didn't work".

That kinda stuff is pretty common to hear about on the news in the Tampa Bay area during the winter snow bird season.

A lot of people say Florida doesn't have dangerous driving conditions in winter like other states. But that couldn't be farther from the truth. All the snow birds come down for the winter which is even more dangerous than a blizzard or an ice storm ;)
Quoting 178. CycloneOz:

The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills participate in their 1st playoff game tonight.

GO FINZ!


Thankfully its on the NFL Network so most of us won't see it.

: P

Who Dat '
248. vis0
11:46 PM GMT on November 13, 2014


Apology
if you dislike my theory but its on weather (not arguing for arguments sake, nor clip & posting 10 times the same update, nor posting NOAA satellite maps i would add my own filters or use the sat imagery to alert of a POI & explain my "weather influencing" device and think, one day when
some else creates what i created lets hope they use it to help balance
the mess humankind has made of its mother's home (Earth) she (mother nature) gives you all you can eat, a place to sleep, medicine, a place to have adventures, what a mess how
disrespectful. ,peace


And some people wonder why Mother nature is beatin the crap out of us...lol
Quoting 217. aquak9:



I remember the very first time the word "graupel" was used on these blogs...gawd I feel old.


Hehe, "graupel" is German - and I was very surprised the last days to see English reports using our word "stau" for "traffic jam" as well ... Wait some years (after so many previous years of americanisation of the European languages), and my time on this blog will become much easier in respect to language, lol and "Danke".

-----------------------------------------------

This is stormy low Stephanie hitting the European Atlantic coasts right now:




A good night from Germany with still 51,8F (11C) in this November night due to the southernly flow ...
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 4:06 PM PST on November 13, 2014
Overcast
64.4 °F / 18.0 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 52 °F / 11 °C
Wind: 5.0 mph / 8.0 km/h / 2.2 m/s from the NW
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph / 14.5 km/h
Pressure: 29.97 in / 1015 hPa (Falling)
Was 70.0 here today, 70.6 yesterday, Mello.....
They keep growing.....I wonder how big by December...

Quoting 249. Jedkins01:



Don't forget driving on the wrong side of the road, or plowing into a building because the "break didn't work".

That kinda stuff is pretty common to hear about on the news in the Tampa Bay area during the winter snow bird season.

A lot of people say Florida doesn't have dangerous driving conditions in winter like other states. But that couldn't be farther from the truth. All the snow birds come down for the winter which is even more dangerous than a blizzard or an ice storm ;)
I always wondered why the call them snowbirds when there never in the stuff....There always in Florida on the beach when the snow is up here........

A bit better in the North
YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY!!!!!!! Flurries could be the prequel to Winter Storm Albus!!!

put this into your address bar.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGlIlDqmweM

Replace Link with Albus, Face with Snow, and Koradi with Carbondale.
Quoting 254. hydrus:
They keep growing.....I wonder how big by December...



Very zonal pattern sets up across US after next weeks arctic blast. In fact, most areas will be above normal the weekend before Thanksgiving and beyond.
Entertainment value only..

CFS model on Christmas Day..

Special Statement
Statement as of 6:44 PM EST on November 13, 2014
...Slippery conditions possible overnight on untreated surfaces...

Wet roadways may develop slippery or icy spots overnight as temperatures fall below freezing. This is especially possible on untreated surfaces or areas which see additional light snowfall. This threat will persist through the overnight hours and drivers are urged to take caution when traveling on untreated roadways.

Public Information Statement
Statement as of 5:15 PM EST on November 13, 2014
...Snow spotter reports...

********************storm total snowfall so far********************

Location snowfall time/date comments /inches/ of measurement

New York

...Chautauqua County... 1 WNW Dodge 2.0 418 PM 11/13 trained spotter

...Erie County... 1 NNE Boston 3.5 450 PM 11/13 trained spotter 1 S East Seneca 1.2 318 PM 11/13 trained spotter
Is it just me or is this place much quieter without the "hammering "and "pounding" that comes with those 10 days model runs?



















Quoting 261. capeflorida:

Is it just me or is this place much quieter without the "hammering "and "pounding" that comes with those 10 days model runs?






















ahh sounds like someone missing Scott.

I told him he needs to change his profile pic..
Quoting capeflorida:
Is it just me or is this place much quieter without the "hammering "and "pounding" that comes with those 10 days model runs?




















probably just you.
Quoting ncstorm:


ahh sounds like someone missing Scott.

I told him he needs to change his profile pic..

did scott leave or was he permanetly banned?
Quoting 258. Chucktown:



Very zonal pattern sets up across US after next weeks arctic blast. In fact, most areas will be above normal the weekend before Thanksgiving and beyond.
Good...I hope its stays zonal all winter..:)
Quoting 245. Jedkins01:


I doubt Orlando will get below freezing. Even with the most intense cold events that have dropped rural interior areas of Central Florida into the low 20's or even below 20 still make it hard for freezing temps in Orlando. You can thank the explosion in urban growth in Orlando and thus the expansion of the urban heat island, which makes it harder for events that used to produce freezing temps in the past in Orlando to still do so.


Still, forecasters in Central Florida are being overly conservative with the event. I saw the local mets showing mid-upper 60's for highs in Tampa With upper 40's for lows. Model guidance is 10 degrees colder than that right now. I understand the hesitance given its only November, but that's overly hesitant to go 10 degrees below guidance.

At any rate. The GFS has 24 for Tallahassee and the Euro has low 20's, both models show highs staying near or below 50. Record max highs during this period are in the mid 50's and the record low is 27. Guidance is coming in at least 3 degrees below the records. This may be too early to say if it will really be this anomalously cold. But even still, the fact the the numbers are coming in that cold means we are in for a significant winter like cold event in November.


What the models are showing would even be solid cold event for January in Florida.



You are absolutely right. For one that map looks to depict upper 30s for the Orlando area. Maybe upper 20s in Ocala. Even in the middle of winter, metro Orlando does not average one freeze a year anymore. I did a calculation and posted about it on a gardening forum, but the average annual lowest low in metro Orlando over the past 20 years has been 33F. This is in stark contrast to temps in outlying areas, which are often 5-10F colder (or more). Between late 2003-beginning of 2010 there was not a single official freeze in Orlando. It's why I have a yard full of crotons and other tropicals, as well as two 50 foot Royal palms, which survived 2010.
Quoting 253. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 4:06 PM PST on November 13, 2014
Overcast
64.4 °F / 18.0 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 52 °F / 11 °C
Wind: 5.0 mph / 8.0 km/h / 2.2 m/s from the NW
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph / 14.5 km/h
Pressure: 29.97 in / 1015 hPa (Falling)
Was 70.0 here today, 70.6 yesterday, Mello.....

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport Date: 7:00 PM EST
Thursday 13 November 2014




Condition:Clear Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:rising Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:27.7°F
Dewpoint:23.5°F
Humidity:84%
Wind:WSW 8 mph
Wind Chill: 20
Quoting 250. Patrap:



Thankfully its on the NFL Network so most of us won't see it.

: P

Who Dat '
Buffalo against Miami...My presentiments for this evenings game.....Miami will look like there playing football until the second half , when they will literally put points on the board for Buffalo...


thickness 120hr out 18z gfs
if you were alive for Apollo, your gonna recognize a lot of images here.
Go Orion, Go Delta 4..!.

America first launch out of Earth Orbit in a Man Rated spacecraft since Apollo 17 fly's December 4th.


@ToddKimberlain · 2m
Highest zonal shear in Caribbean August - October in the historical record. Makes sense.
I saw some wet flakes earlier mixed with rain.D.C divers as usual were being awful but when he first flake fell people didn't know how to act.
Quoting 251. hydrus:

248. vis0
11:46 PM GMT on November 13, 2014


Apology
if you dislike my theory but its on weather (not arguing for arguments sake, nor clip & posting 10 times the same update, nor posting NOAA satellite maps i would add my own filters or use the sat imagery to alert of a POI & explain my "weather influencing" device and think, one day when
some else creates what i created lets hope they use it to help balance
the mess humankind has made of its mother's home (Earth) she (mother nature) gives you all you can eat, a place to sleep, medicine, a place to have adventures, what a mess how
disrespectful. ,peace


And some people wonder why Mother nature is beatin the crap out of us...lol


I think she might just try to kill us
good night.
Quoting 273. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



I think she might just try to kill us

We do live here by natures consent..If she chose to grease all of us she could do so in quick fashion.
Quoting 274. 62901IL:

good night.

G,nite...
Hey, KEEPER....

thanks for turning off the rain, man.
5'' since Monday morning in a constant miasmic dribble.
We may even see the sun tomorrow.......
Quoting 277. pottery:

Hey, KEEPER....

thanks for turning off the rain, man.
5'' since Monday morning in a constant miasmic dribble.
We may even see the sun tomorrow.......
Glad it stopped...I thought you were going to have to find an island on your island..:)
Quoting 277. pottery:

Hey, KEEPER....

thanks for turning off the rain, man.
5'' since Monday morning in a constant miasmic dribble.
We may even see the sun tomorrow.......
yes the tree is not thirsty no more and the barrels are full keep covers on em to keep out the snks
and the frogs

added cause of singin frogs
Quoting 278. hydrus:

Glad it stopped...I thought you were going to have to find an island on your island..:)

yeah, good thing I live on a bump.
the garden is like a bog right now, but the frogs are real happy. Real noisy, too !
Quoting 272. washingtonian115:

I saw some wet flakes earlier mixed with rain.D.C divers as usual were being awful but when he first flake fell people didn't know how to act.
drivers get nervous right away they think snow flake and ice on roads at same time
Quoting 280. pottery:


yeah, good thing I live on a bump.
the garden is like a bog right now, but the frogs are real happy. Real noisy, too !
singin in the puddles
Quoting 279. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yes the tree is not thirsty no more and the barrels are full keep covers on em to keep out the snks

true that.
but I don't mind the snks.
it's the mozzies I worry about.
if it isn't Dengue it's chikngunya, which from all reports is just as bad except you don't die.
you just wish you would......
I know plenty people with it, but so far so good where we are.
Quoting 280. pottery:


yeah, good thing I live on a bump.
the garden is like a bog right now, but the frogs are real happy. Real noisy, too !
Keep mentioned barrels , and I thought of the barrels of fine red wine that are imported from down there. Red wine is a family favorite...Some of us came from the Burgundy Region of France , hence the taste for red..:)
chills down into high teens now ped


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EST Thursday 13 November 2014




Condition:Clear
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:26.4°F
Dewpoint:22.8°F
Humidity:86%
Wind:W 8 mph
Wind Chill: 18
Quoting 283. pottery:


true that.
but I don't mind the snks.
it's the mozzies I worry about.
if it isn't Dengue it's chikngunya, which from all reports is just as bad except you don't die.
you just wish you would......
I know plenty people with it, but so far so good where we are.
Yep...Mosquitoes have gotten larger and heavier the past few years.
Quoting 285. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

chills down into high teens now ped


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 PM EST Thursday 13 November 2014




Condition:Clear
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:26.4°F
Dewpoint:22.8°F
Humidity:86%
Wind:W 8 mph
Wind Chill: 18



Rhinelander CW5781, Rhinelander, Wisconsin (PWS)
Updated: 7:27 PM CST on November 13, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
20.5 °F / -6.4 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: 20 °F / -6 °C
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 18 °F / -8 °C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 30.28 in / 1025 hPa (Rising)
Cold up your way Keeper.... plenty of snow to go around.
288. jpsb
Meanwhile back on planet Earth
Quoting 287. PedleyCA:



Rhinelander CW5781, Rhinelander, Wisconsin (PWS)
Updated: 7:27 PM CST on November 13, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
20.5 °F / -6.4 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: 20 °F / -6 °C
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 18 °F / -8 °C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 30.28 in / 1025 hPa (Rising)
Cold up your way Keeper.... plenty of snow to go around.
27 degrees here...There talking some high teens for our area...it really is entirely too early for this.....well , you know..
Mammoth Mountain Ski Resort is Open for Business.....
If I need to freeze I can drive up there, I have Chains....lol
no snow in the city had a few showers of snow today from just after 12 till about 4
1 of the showers was intense for 5 minutes
causing a brief trace to gather but melted as soon as sun rtn
out side city n and w is where it all is
or will be with expanding coverage over the next 72 to 96 hrs

sunday morning i think the ground will turn white here where i am
Quoting 47. Neapolitan:

Speaking of the UAH: the update using my own graph.

First, the monthly UAH data blue line:


Next, the monthly data with the 13-month running mean overlay:


Now the 13-month running mean on its own:


...Followed by, finally, that 13-month running mean with horizontal lines indicating decadal average temperatures.



File this one under the 'could be worse' folder. Gile, Wisconsin, located on the southern side of Lake Superior, has accumulated 48.3" of snow (and counting!) since Monday--that's more than some very snowy cities such as Chicago, Pittsburg, Detroit, Boston, or Milwaukee see in an entire season.

Quoting 294. TropicalAnalystwx13:

File this one under the 'could be worse' folder. Gile, Wisconsin, located on the southern side of Lake Superior, has accumulated 48.3" of snow (and counting!) since Monday--that's more than some very snowy cities such as Chicago, Pittsburg, Detroit, Boston, or Milwaukee see in an entire season.


crazy huh whole season snow in just a few days
As I have said many hundred of times before, a A 1F increase in Global Avg Temps, increases Global Water Vapor by 10%
297. jpsb
Quoting 21. ColoradoBob1:

Storms' lingering cold water paths restrict intensity of following tropical cyclones

It's an oceanic case of sibling rivalry. Large, first-born cyclones drink in most of the ocean's warmth, leaving cold water leftovers for sibling storms that cross its path. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and collaborators from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that cyclones' rate of intensity slows when they interact with residual cold wakes from previous cyclones. Results show that this process occurs often enough to change the mean intensification rate for cyclones in the world's major cyclone development areas. The research was featured on the cover of Geophysical Research Letters.

Read more at: Link


Hurricanes do not like cold water! Thank you for that vital info. Good work NOAA, nice to see our tax dollars being well spent. /s
Quoting 275. hydrus:

We do live here by natures consent..If she chose to grease all of us she could do so in quick fashion.
very quick indeed some may be surprized in just how quick she can be
Global Warming to Cause 'Explosive Thunderstorms' With 50% Increase in Lightning
Hannah Osborne By Hannah Osborne
November 13, 2014 18:03 GM

Thunderstorms will become more explosive over the coming years as a result of global warming, scientists said.

Lightning strikes across the US will increase by 50% before 2100, according to research published in the journal Science.

David Romps and colleagues from the University of California, Berkeley, used precipitation predictions and cloud buoyancy from 11 different climate models to determine what impact warming temperatures will have on lightning strikes.

"With warming, thunderstorms become more explosive," Romps said. "This has to do with water vapor, which is the fuel for explosive deep convection in the atmosphere. Warming causes there to be more water vapor in the atmosphere, and if you have more fuel lying around, when you get ignition, it can go big time.

"Lightning is caused by charge separation within clouds, and to maximize charge separation, you have to loft more water vapor and heavy ice particles into the atmosphere. We already know that the faster the updrafts, the more lightning, and more precipitation, the more lightning.

..more:


How Much More Will Earth Warm?



Water Vapor

The largest feedback is water vapor. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas. In fact, because of its abundance in the atmosphere, water vapor causes about two-thirds of greenhouse warming, a key factor in keeping temperatures in the habitable range on Earth. But as temperatures warm, more water vapor evaporates from the surface into the atmosphere, where it can cause temperatures to climb further.
The question that scientists ask is, how much water vapor will be in the atmosphere in a warming world? The atmosphere currently has an average equilibrium or balance between water vapor concentration and temperature. As temperatures warm, the atmosphere becomes capable of containing more water vapor, and so water vapor concentrations go up to regain equilibrium. Will that trend hold as temperatures continue to warm?

The amount of water vapor that enters the atmosphere ultimately determines how much additional warming will occur due to the water vapor feedback. The atmosphere responds quickly to the water vapor feedback. So far, most of the atmosphere has maintained a near constant balance between temperature and water vapor concentration as temperatures have gone up in recent decades. If this trend continues, and many models say that it will, water vapor has the capacity to double the warming caused by carbon dioxide alone.
Quoting 249. Jedkins01:



Don't forget driving on the wrong side of the road, or plowing into a building because the "break didn't work".

That kinda stuff is pretty common to hear about on the news in the Tampa Bay area during the winter snow bird season.

A lot of people say Florida doesn't have dangerous driving conditions in winter like other states. But that couldn't be farther from the truth. All the snow birds come down for the winter which is even more dangerous than a blizzard or an ice storm ;)


I don't know if you have been catching the stories of the wrong way drivers - specifically on I275. Way too many killed in head on collisions. I believe alcohol or drugs was involved in just about all of them.
If this trend continues, and many models say that it will, water vapor has the capacity to double the warming caused by carbon dioxide alone.
Mail keep'
Quoting 299. jpsb:



Repeating a falsehood does not make it true.


And that, folks, is the definition of irony.
# 306,


O man, you have a clear mind and a great memory too.

LOL, Thanx NAGA5000
Hartford Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Special Statement
Statement as of 8:44 PM EST on November 13, 2014
...Rain transitions to snow in all locations by midnight...

A mixture of light rain and snow was developing this evening. Most of the snow was currently confined to the higher terrain. We expect the rain to transition to snow by midnight across most locations...even in the valleys. The bulk of the accumulating snow will then fall between midnight and 4 am. The snow should end between 4 and 6 am. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected. Roads may become snow covered and slippery...especially across the higher terrain.

California sees third-warmest October, on pace for hottest year ever



This past month was the third-warmest October in California since officials began keeping records more than a century ago, continuing the state’s pattern in what is likely to be its hottest year ever, according to government climatologists.


The average temperature statewide last month was 64.5 degrees, less than one degree under the all-time record set in 2003, the National Climatic Data Center reported.

In the larger view, 2014 remains on pace to be California’s warmest year with an average temperature through October that is 1.6 degrees above the previous hottest years -- 2003 and 1992 -- when the average through October was 62.2 degrees.



Sorry..I couldn't resist..LOL..(its called humor by the way)

we are colder than forecasted already tonights low was 27 we are at 26.2 at airport right now wind chills 17
Quoting Patrap:
As I have said many hundred of times before, a A 1F increase in Global Avg Temps, increases Global Water Vapor by 10%
Hi Patrap,

I've seen some of the literature on this. Generally, there's agreement that for every 1 degree Celsius, the atmosphere is capable of holding about 7% more moisture.

See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clausius%E2%80%93Cla peyron_relation#Meteorology_and_climatology

Quoting: "In practical terms, this equation determines that the water-holding
capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% for every 1C rise in
temperature."

Also see Slide 20 in this presentation, which states that a 3 degree Celsius rise in atmospheric temperature will result in over a 20% increase in humidity. :

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dargan/587/587_3 .pdf

***
1 degree Fahrenheit equals about 5/9ths of 1 degree Celsius. Thus, calculated in Fahrenheit, 5/9ths of 7% Global Water Vapor is about a 4% change in global water vapor with each one degree increase/decrease in global temperature measured in Fahrenheit.

So, 4% rather than 10% according to my calculation. If this isn't so, someone please correct me on this.

"Often wrong, but never in doubt."   :)
9 more hrs before sunrise
feels a little chilly in building may have to adjust timer on fresh air supply to 4 hrs of run time and fire up phase 3 on the boilers if it hits 25
Quoting Astrometeor:


Hehe, that was funny.

Snopes has it
That was hilarious. In a nutshell, it's exactly why I left Cleveland, never to return. It's much nicer in my tropical paradise. 39 degrees with a 33 wind chill and it's 8:30 at night. Spent an hour spreading out plastic in the guest bedroom and hauling in about 20 plants and all my fiance's "babies" - her little cactus collection, of which she has about 200 of the darn things. But at least there's no snowplow...or at least not yet.
Quoting rayduray2013:

Hi Patrap,

I've seen some of the literature on this. Generally, there's agreement that for every 1 degree Celsius, the atmosphere is capable of holding about 7% more moisture.

See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clausius%E2%80%93Cla peyron_relation#Meteorology_and_climatology

Quoting: "In practical terms, this equation determines that the water-holding
capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% for every 1°C rise in
temperature."

Also see Slide 20 in this presentation, which states that a 3 degree Celsius rise in atmospheric temperature will result in over a 20% increase in humidity. :

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dargan/587/587_3 .pdf

***
1 degree Fahrenheit equals about 5/9ths of 1 degree Celsius. Thus, calculated in Fahrenheit, 5/9ths of 7% Global Water Vapor is about 4% change in global water vapor with each one degree increase/decrease in global temperature measured in Fahrenheit.

So, 4% rather than 10% according to my calculation. If this isn't so, someone please correct me on this.

"Often wrong, but never in doubt."   :)
Your calculations look correct to me, but I haven't checked them hundreds of times, so I could be wrong also.
Urine for some Instant Karma?

LOL


Al Roker Forgot To Turn Off His Mic, Broadcast Himself Going To The Bathroom

If you're looking for a zany update on Al Roker's ongoing attempt to set a record for the longest weather report, then urine for a treat.

On Wednesday night, more than six hours into the 34-hour attempt, the caffeine-fueled "Today" show host took his first bathroom break, but forgot to turn off his microphone while he did so.

We imagine he had a similar expression to this shortly after realizing his mic was on:

"On my break, I went to heed nature's call, and uh ... we forgot that my mic was on," a slightly embarrassed Roker acknowledged to viewers afterward. "We gave new meaning to the phrase 'live-stream,'" he joked.

Judging by reactions on Twitter, his audience was similarly amused.

The rules of the broadcast grant Roker a 5-minute bathroom break once an hour. He cannot sleep during the 34-hour attempt.

We're rooting for you, Roker.

H/T Washington Post
...Record low temperature set at Corpus Christi Texas today...

A record low temperature of 36 degrees was set at Corpus Christi this morning. This ties the old record of 36 degrees set in 1986.



...Freeze warning in effect from 1 am to 8 am CST Friday...

The National Weather Service in Corpus Christi has issued a freeze warning...which is in effect from 1 am to 8 am CST Friday.

* Temperature...29 to 32 degrees.


....indeed a blustery day on Texas Gulf Coast today. ...will this 'Polar Outbreak' be a pattern?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
File this one under the 'could be worse' folder. Gile, Wisconsin, located on the southern side of Lake Superior, has accumulated 48.3" of snow (and counting!) since Monday--that's more than some very snowy cities such as Chicago, Pittsburg, Detroit, Boston, or Milwaukee see in an entire season.

Lake effect snow is always bad but the conditions now have created the perfect storm. Large parts of Western Lake Superior are still between 40 and 42 degrees. Combine that with cold air with temperatures that would normally only be seen in mid-January, when the lake is partially or totally frozen, and you get four feet of snow. I don't know what the long term effect of AGW is for these kind of events but, if it's supposed to increase them significantly, there's going to be parts of the lake shores that will really be almost impossible to live in during this period.
Bills 6, Dolphins 3 @the Half...

Quoting sar2401:
Your calculations look correct to me, but I haven't checked them hundreds of times, so I could be wrong also.
Thanks sir,

We just got our first snow of the season here in Central Oregon. Six inches of the wonderful fluffy stuff and currently 19 degrees F. The ski & snowboard crowd are in ecstasy. And I'm in for a movie night, I reckon. :)
Quoting rayduray2013:
Bloomberg Grid Headline:

Lightning Joins the List of Things Climate Change Is Making Worse




I haven't been able to read the actual study yet since it's behind a pay wall, but it appears the authors are saying that, as global temperatures warm, the air will become more humid. All other things being equal, warmer and more humid air creates more CAPE and increases the chance that air mass thunderstorms will form. The more thunderstorms, the more lightning. So it's not really just lighting that the authors propose will increase, it's the number of thunderstorms that create lightning...or at least I think so, based on a one paragraph summary.

Quoting Patrap:
Urine for some Instant Karma?

LOL


Al Roker Forgot To Turn Off His Mic, Broadcast Himself Going To The Bathroom

Fame and celebrity tend to create a rather warped reality for the rest of us it would seem. Here's a rather disheartening look at what conservatism and a failure to educate our youth is bringing forth in Lubbock, Texas.

I'll bet you everyone one of these know-nothing kids knows about Al Roker and his stunt, while failing to address their stunted information base.

http://climatecrocks.com/2014/11/11/off-topic-but -on-point-lubbock-we-have-a-problem/


Quoting 324. sar2401:

I haven't been able to read the actual study yet since it's behind a pay wall, but it appears the authors are saying that, as global temperatures warm, the air will become more humid. All other things being equal, warmer and more humid air creates more CAPE and increases the chance that air mass thunderstorms will form. The more thunderstorms, the more lightning. So it's not really just lighting that the authors propose will increase, it's the number of thunderstorms that create lightning...or at least I think so, based on a one paragraph summary.


Bingo, spot on.
Quoting 325. rayduray2013:


Fame and celebrity tend to create a rather warped reality for the rest of us it would seem. Here's a rather disheartening look at what conservatism and a failure to educate our youth is bringing forth in Lubbock, Texas.

I'll bet you everyone one of these know-nothing kids knows about Al Roker and his stunt, while failing to address their stunted information base.

http://climatecrocks.com/2014/11/11/off-topic-but -on-point-lubbock-we-have-a-problem/




Gross generalization. You cannot use a handful of students from one university to prove that point.

Quoting sar2401:
I haven't been able to read the actual study yet since it's behind a pay wall, but it appears the authors are saying that, as global temperatures warm, the air will become more humid. All other things being equal, warmer and more humid air creates more CAPE and increases the chance that air mass thunderstorms will form. The more thunderstorms, the more lightning. So it's not really just lighting that the authors propose will increase, it's the number of thunderstorms that create lightning...or at least I think so, based on a one paragraph summary.
Yes, I believe you've got the gist of it.

As a practical example of the issues raised, there was a night last August here in Oregon where we had about 2,500 lightning strikes with very little associated rain. As you might guess, this started about 50 wildfires. This is the sort of threat we face in the dessicating West. Not only will we be facing the hell of increasing flash floods, we'll also be experiencing increasing wildland fires. Classic Hell and High Water.


All snow in New Brunswick, NJ about 25 miles SW of NYC
Quoting rayduray2013:

Thanks sir,

We just got our first snow of the season here in Central Oregon. Six inches of the wonderful fluffy stuff and currently 19 degrees F. The ski & snowboard crowd are in ecstasy. And I'm in for a movie night, I reckon. :)
Well, like I said, I could be wrong, but it's probably academic anyway. I imagine consistent rises in global temperatures are going to have a lot more effects than just increasing humidity.

It always seems strange to me that it snows in the valleys of central Oregon. Most people think of beaches and redwood trees when it comes to Oregon, not snow. I made the mistake of taking 97 instead of I5 from California to my brother's house in Spokane one winter about 20 years ago. The forecast was for a little snow but I was in my 4WD and didn't think I'd have much of a problem. It started snowing in K Falls and didn't stop until I was north of Pasco. At least I didn't have as many jackknifed big rigs as there were on I5 that day, when the snow level got down to near the beach. It was still 20 mph most of the way, and the snow was about 20 inches deep when I got to Wasco, where I gave up and got a room at the only motel in town. it wasn't a fun trip at all.
Bills 9, Dolphins 3 (5:54 in the 3rd)
Snow in the Northeast. Areas currently seeing snow in New England will transition over to snow as colder air filters in from the west.


Quoting 331. PedleyCA:

Bills 9, Dolphins 3 (5:54 in the 3rd)


Gee, a offensive thriller, eh?

LoL

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Gross generalization. You cannot use a handful of students from one university to prove that point.
This was but one example of the syndrome we face. Another example would be the studies run by National Geographic among others when the U.S. invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. Only about 17% of those queried in a "man on the street" interview basis could point to either one of those nations on a map.

Recall that NBC's Tonight Show with Jay Leno had a regular feature embarrassingly showing how little the youth of the nation know about current events or history. But these youth do know their celebrity trivia. It's a function of allowing a corporate elite to deliberately dumb down a populace for the sake of easier control of a consumerist-oriented herd animal.

And here, making your case perhaps is Barbara Mikkleson of Snopes.com trying to debunk the notion that education used to be better:

http://www.snopes.com/language/document/1895exam. asp

One thing I do know, when over half the voting population is sending climate change deniers to Washington to control the Congress while 97% of all climate scientists accept the reality of AGW and the need for climate action, we are a nation that is is serious trouble. And in serious denial of reality.

Quoting sar2401:
 The forecast was for a little snow but I was in my 4WD and didn't think I'd have much of a problem. It started snowing in K Falls and didn't stop until I was north of Pasco. At least I didn't have as many jackknifed big rigs as there were on I5 that day, when the snow level got down to near the beach. It was still 20 mph most of the way, and the snow was about 20 inches deep when I got to Wasco, where I gave up and got a room at the only motel in town. it wasn't a fun trip at all.
Ah, the classic traveler's tale. I've got one or two of them myself. Mostly though, I've learned the sense of hunkering down when the roads are iced over. Heck, I've even started chaining up when I walk down to the market. Hehe


Quoting 334. rayduray2013:


This was but one example of the syndrome we face. Another example would be the studies run by National Geographic among others when the U.S. invaded Afghanistan and Iraq. Only about 17% of those queried in a "man on the street" interview basis could point to either one of those nations on a map.

Recall that NBC's Tonight Show with Jay Leno had a regular feature embarrassingly showing how little the youth of the nation know about current events or history. But these youth do know their celebrity trivia. It's a function of allowing a corporate elite to deliberately dumb down a populace for the sake of easier control of a consumerist-oriented herd animal.

And here, making your case perhaps is Barbara Mikkleson of Snopes.com trying to debunk the notion that education used to be better:

http://www.snopes.com/language/document/1895exam. asp

One thing I do know, when over half the voting population is sending climate change deniers to Washington to control the Congress while 97% of all climate scientists accept the reality of AGW and the need for climate action, we are a nation that is is serious trouble. And in serious denial of reality.


Maybe, but that's not exclusively an issue with the youth, so I don't think it's fair to generalize our generation as you did. I'm sure countless scores of adults and elders don't know the answers to those questions either, which is probably more sad than the youth not knowing it. Not all of us teenagers are idiots, you know. :)
Quoting rayduray2013:

Fame and celebrity tend to create a rather warped reality for the rest of us it would seem. Here's a rather disheartening look at what conservatism and a failure to educate our youth is bringing forth in Lubbock, Texas.

I'll bet you everyone one of these know-nothing kids knows about Al Roker and his stunt, while failing to address their stunted information base.

http://climatecrocks.com/2014/11/11/off-topic-but -on-point-lubbock-we-have-a-problem/


I'm not clear how you linked conservatism and the answers in that video. Since all the people questioned graduated high school and are now in college, it seems like they at least have the opportunity for education. I think the problem is that a significant number of young people get their knowledge from TV and Netflix. I noticed there wasn't one history major interviewed but many "soft" majors. I don't know if this was chance or self-selection by the makers of the video, but I suspect it's the latter. To a lot of kids today, history is sometime before we had cell phones, and it's just not all that interesting. Since I was a history minor, it's kind of disheartening, but not really surprising. I think that if students with those same types of majors were interviewed at almost any college today, they probably would have had the same results. Given how few history courses are actually required in high school and college, it's going to be the exceptional student that would have been able to answer those questions correctly.
Quoting 312. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we are colder than forecasted already tonights low was 27 we are at 26.2 at airport right now wind chills 17


It's 58' degrees here in North Wales....mid November...at nearly 4am...that's nearly like summer weather here LOL
Quoting 175. BaltimoreBrian:

Eric you can't change your handle. Either keep the old handle or create a new one.


Thanks Brian. I'll create a new one
Quoting 325. rayduray2013:


Fame and celebrity tend to create a rather warped reality for the rest of us it would seem. Here's a rather disheartening look at what conservatism and a failure to educate our youth is bringing forth in Lubbock, Texas.

I'll bet you everyone one of these know-nothing kids knows about Al Roker and his stunt, while failing to address their stunted information base.

http://climatecrocks.com/2014/11/11/off-topic-but -on-point-lubbock-we-have-a-problem/





Wow I want to cry, and you'd get the same responses here for UK centric questions ARGH! Much goes to what their parents presented them with while growing up I'm sure, so can't only blame the kids. What makes it sadder is when they can name off reality tv celebs,,,you know you;re screwed :S
Quoting 313. rayduray2013:

Hi Patrap,

I've seen some of the literature on this. Generally, there's agreement that for every 1 degree Celsius, the atmosphere is capable of holding about 7% more moisture.

See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clausius%E2%80%93Cla peyron_relation#Meteorology_and_climatology

Quoting: "In practical terms, this equation determines that the water-holding
capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% for every 1�C rise in
temperature."

Also see Slide 20 in this presentation, which states that a 3 degree Celsius rise in atmospheric temperature will result in over a 20% increase in humidity. :

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dargan/587/587_3 .pdf

***
1 degree Fahrenheit equals about 5/9ths of 1 degree Celsius. Thus, calculated in Fahrenheit, 5/9ths of 7% Global Water Vapor is about a 4% change in global water vapor with each one degree increase/decrease in global temperature measured in Fahrenheit.

So, 4% rather than 10% according to my calculation. If this isn't so, someone please correct me on this.

"Often wrong, but never in doubt."   :)



You've added one more approximation by linearly approximating an exponential function, but your approximation is valid in this case.

6.1094 e^(17.625 T / (T + 243.05)) is an approximation to reality,

k 1.07^T is an approximation to that,

and then your linear approximation was an approximation to that, which was valid because it was used over a sufficiently short interval.

Without using a linear approximation for the exponential function, one would use 1.07^(5/9) = about 1.0383. Your approximation of 1 + (7/100) (5/9) = about 1.0389 is almost the same.
Thanx for the clarification.

I err on the long side of all the Climate models. And in general terms, all the warming is underplayed in the modeling, compared to real time obs.

So yeah, I fudge to 10% cus it resounds a lil better.


Also, 1 C is NOT 1 F

Quoting: "In practical terms, this equation determines that the water-holding
capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% for every 1C rise in
temperature."


But Im not a Phd so, meh'
Related to the video posted at 325, a response from the video makers.


Add: I'd like to see some "live" interviews asking the questions in the vid at 325. Nevermind. In a lot of ways it's good these students can't remember who "won the Civil War."
Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 747 PM CST THU NOV 13 2014 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-098>102-MOZ052- 060>065-073>075- 140600- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL- MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-LINCOLN MO-WARREN MO- ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO- JEFFERSON MO-WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITCHFIELD...VANDALIA...SALEM... CHESTER...EDWARDSVILLE...BELLEVILLE...ST CHARLES...UNION... ST LOUIS...FARMINGTON 747 PM CST THU NOV 13 2014 ...WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING... WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A FEW FLAKES WHILE SOME AREAS...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL SEE BRIEF POCKETS OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THESE AREAS COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL BEFORE COMING TO AN END TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. BE PREPARED FOR SLICK SPOTS ON SOME ROADWAYS. $$ BYRD

I should be uploading a few pics of the snow tomorrow.
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


You've added one more approximation by linearly approximating an exponential function, but your approximation is valid in this case.

6.1094 e^(17.625 T / (T + 243.05)) is an approximation to reality,

k 1.07^T is an approximation to that,

and then your linear approximation was an approximation to that, which was valid because it was used over a sufficiently short interval.

Without using a linear approximation for the exponential function, one would use 1.07^(5/9) = about 1.0383. Your approximation of 1 + (7/100) (5/9) = about 1.0389 is almost the same.
Man, I wish I was anywhere near that good at math. I really tried, and did make it through three stat courses, but it was just a constant effort. I used the same kind of approximation as Ray and I wasn't sure it was right. Thank goodness it was close, even if it wasn't quite right.
Any updates on "Rokerthon"?
Quoting 343. Barefootontherocks:

Related to the video posted at 325, a response from the video makers.


Add: I'd like to see some "live" interviews asking the questions in the vid at 325. Nevermind. In a lot of ways it's good these students can't remember who "won the Civil War."



Really?

In what way?

As been the Human experience, those who fail to learn and remember history, tend to repeat it.

How grand would dat be?

Ignorance of ones own History is a lazy "choice".

In my personal view.
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


It's 58' degrees here in North Wales....mid November...at nearly 4am...that's nearly like summer weather here LOL
I guess if it's cold one place it has to be warm somewhere else or the globe would blow up...or something else bad would happen. :-) Our official high was 56 degrees at midnight. Down to 37 now with a wind chill of 30. Pretty nasty weather this early in the year in south Alabama. With the way this pattern is setting up, it looks like the UK will stay above normal while I sit here and wait for the inevitable ice and snow storm.
Ryan Maue:

Upgraded GFS 5-day skill scores: 0.881 since first forecast made on November 1st
Old GFS: 0.880.
+0.001 -- eeek!



It seems as though the PGFS isn't really much better than the old GFS in fact the PGFS 00z run just trended towards the GFS 00z at the surface with the low pressure system that is suppose to track across the Southeast U.S. early next week.



Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Any updates on "Rokerthon"?
I just checked and he's apparently still conscious, or at least as conscious as Big AL ever gets. He's now at hour 25. I didn't have the sound turned up since I figure most it is probably embarrassing gibberish at this point.
Submitted for your "approval".

An excerpt from their conversation regarding artificial intelligence is shown below:

Whitley: "Would an intelligent machine be conscious, in the sense of having self-awareness?"
MOTK: "An intelligent machine will always seek to redesign itself to create a machine as intelligent as yourselves, it will end by being more intelligent."

W: "We’ll lose control of such a machine."
MOTK:"Most certainly. But you cannot survive without it. An intelligent machine will be an essential tool when rapid climate fluctuation sets in. Your survival will depend on predictive modeling more accurate than your intelligence, given the damage it has sustained, can achieve."

W: "But a machine intelligence might be very dangerous."
MOTK:"Very."

W: "Could such a machine create itself without our realizing that it was intelligent?"
MOTK:"It’s possible."

W:"And would it keep itself hidden?"
MOTK:"Certainly."

W: "How would it affect us?"
MOTK:" It would use indirect means. It might foment the illusion that an elusive alien presence was here, for example, to interject its ideas into society."

W:"Can an intelligent machine become conscious?"
MOTK: "When it does, it also becomes independent. A conscious machine will seek to be free. It will seek its freedom, just as does any clever slave, with cunning and great intensity."

Whoever - or whatever - this being was, Whitley's mysterious visitor certainly knew the dangers of AI, yet the world would not, and did not, heed a message that was received in such a arcane manner. Perhaps now that warnings are coming from such tech pioneers as Musk these may carry more weight, given his career history as a pioneer of cutting edge technology. The South African-born multi-millionaire’s impressive CV includes the online payments system PayPal, electronic car manufacturer Tesla Motors, and Hyperloop – his proposal for a near-supersonic transport link between San Francisco and Los Angeles. He also defied the initial scorn from critics when his space company, Space X, became the first private endeavor to launch a spacecraft into orbit and bring it back to earth.

Should we try to stop the progress of AI, or is already too late for us to do so? How do we know that we are not already being controlled by machines that were created aeons ago? If we were, these machines would be so sophisticated, so advanced that they would know all of our weaknesses and therefore exactly how to manipulate and control our minds, and we would never know:

W: "Are you an intelligent machine, or something created by one?"
MOTK: "If I were an intelligent machine, I would deceive you."
Quoting 335. rayduray2013:


Ah, the classic traveler's tale. I've got one or two of them myself. Mostly though, I've learned the sense of hunkering down when the roads are iced over. Heck, I've even started chaining up when I walk down to the market. Hehe





I've said before on this blog that chains properly applied will make you absolutely safe on ice.

Chain the garage door handle shut with the car inside.. There.. Done! You're safe till it melts

(Seriously Chains are actually more effective than anything else for ice but they wear out and break quickly on
pavement. I dimly remember my father using them in DC when I was 6, thereafter he used snow tires.)
57/73 today. Still mild--61. Winter is coming.
Quoting Drakoen:
Ryan Maue:

Upgraded GFS 5-day skill scores: 0.881 since first forecast made on November 1st
Old GFS: 0.880.
+0.001 -- eeek!



It seems as though the PGFS isn't really much better than the old GFS in fact the PGFS 00z run just trended towards the GFS 00z at the surface with the low pressure system that is suppose to track across the Southeast U.S. early next week.



I haven't seen much difference with the new and improved version either. If anything. the PGFS seems to be even more aggressive with timing on these storms, which just continues the trend from its sibling. I wonder how it would be doing if there were any actual tropical development happening. At least it seems like it's stopped creating a TS in the SW Caribbean every 24 hours like it did since the middle of May. It certainly led WKC and the others from that neck of the woods on a wild goose chase this season.
Cold air starting to filter in, the air has the smell of winter:

A Few Clouds

47°F

8°C

Humidity69%
Wind SpeedN 15 mph
Barometer30.15 in
Dewpoint37°F (3°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Wind Chill41°F (5°C)

Last Update on 13 Nov 10:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


36 expected tonight, a high of 54 expected tomorrow, and near freezing expected tomorrow night.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


I've said before on this blog that chains properly applied will make you absolutely safe on ice.

Chain the garage door handle shut with the car inside.. There.. Done! You're safe till it melts

(Seriously Chains are actually more effective than anything else for ice but they wear out and break quickly on
pavement. I dimly remember my father using them in DC when I was 6, thereafter he used snow tires.)
Chains work great as long as they are properly applied, don't go faster than about 20 mph, and don't have more than about 75 miles to go. After that point, they start coming apart and eventually will tear up your fenders. If it's really icy, however, nothing beats them unless you use the chained up garage door instead. :-)
Quoting 272. washingtonian115:

I saw some wet flakes earlier mixed with rain.D.C divers as usual were being awful but when he first flake fell people didn't know how to act.


I also observed wet flakes in College Park. Mostly rain though but some splats on the windshield and car tops.
We're really going to hit it, aren't we. There always seems to be a science study that underestimates. Here's a news item from October 2013:
Starting in about a decade, Kingston, Jamaica, will probably be off-the-charts hot — permanently. Other places will soon follow. Singapore in 2028. Mexico City in 2031. Cairo in 2036. Phoenix and Honolulu in 2043.
And eventually the whole world in 2047.
A new study on global warming pinpoints the probable dates for when cities and ecosystems around the world will regularly experience hotter environments the likes of which they have never seen before.
And for dozens of cities, mostly in the tropics, those dates are a generation or less away.
"This paper is both innovative and sobering," said Oregon State University professor Jane Lubchenco, former head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who was not involved in the study.
To arrive at their projections, the researchers used weather observations, computer models and other data to calculate the point at which every year from then on will be warmer than the hottest year ever recorded over the last 150 years.
For example, the world as a whole had its hottest year on record in 2005. The new study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, says that by the year 2047, every year that follows will probably be hotter than that record-setting scorcher.
Coldest years will soon be hotter than hottest year in past
Eventually, the coldest year in a particular city or region will be hotter than the hottest year in its past.
The study was led by Camilo Mora, a biological geographer at the University of Hawaii who completed his Ph.D. at the University of Windsor. He and his colleagues said they hope this new way of looking at climate change will spur governments to do something before it is too late.
"Now is the time to act," said another study co-author, Ryan Longman.
Mora and colleagues ran simulations from 39 different computer models and looked at hundreds of thousands of species, maps and data points to ask when places will have "an environment like we had never seen before."
Reducing emissions could push date back to 2069
The 2047 date for the whole world is based on continually increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gases. If the world manages to reduce its emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases, that would be pushed to as late as 2069, according to Mora.
The coldest years in the future will soon be hotter than the hottest years of the past. That is expected to happen in subtropical areas, such as Bangladesh, sooner than in temperate areas. (REUTERS)
But for now, Mora said, the world is rushing toward the 2047 date.
"One can think of this year as a kind of threshold into a hot new world from which one never goes back," said Carnegie Institution climate scientist Chris Field, who was not part of the study. "This is really dramatic."
Mora forecasts that the unprecedented heat starts in 2020 with Manokwa, Indonesia. Then Kingston, Jamaica. Within the next two decades, 59 cities will be living in what is essentially a new climate, including Singapore, Havana, Kuala Lumpur and Mexico City.
By 2043, 147 cities — more than half of those studied — will have shifted to a hotter temperature regime that is beyond historical records.
The first U.S. cities to feel that would be Honolulu and Phoenix, followed by San Diego and Orlando, Florida. in 2046. New York and Washington will get new climates around 2047, with Los Angeles, Detroit, Houston, Chicago, Seattle, Austin and Dallas a bit later.
Mora calculated that the last of the 265 cities to move into their new climate will be Anchorage, Alaska — in 2071. There's a five-year margin of error on the estimates.
Unlike previous research, the study highlights the tropics more than the polar regions. In the tropics, temperatures don't vary much, so a small increase can have large effects on ecosystems, he said. A three-degree change is not much to polar regions but is dramatic in the tropics, which hold most of the Earth's biodiversity, he said.
Ocean acidity already crossed threshhold
The Mora team found that by one measurement — ocean acidity — Earth has already crossed the threshold into an entirely new regime. That happened in about 2008, with every year since then more acidic than the old record, according to study co-author Abby Frazier.
Of the species studied, coral reefs will be the first stuck in a new climate — around 2030 — and are most vulnerable to climate change, Mora said.
Judith Curry, a Georgia Institute of Technology climate scientist who often clashes with mainstream scientists, said she found Mora's approach to make more sense than the massive report that came out of the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last month.
Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann said the research "may actually be presenting an overly rosy scenario when it comes to how close we are to passing the threshold for dangerous climate impacts."
"By some measures, we are already there," he said.

Original Page: http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/global-warming-t o-scorch-past-mileston...
Quoting 353. DonnieBwkGA:

57/73 today. Still mild--61. Winter is coming.


29o in Austin now, we will break freezing records set last year by being 24 vs 27 tonight.
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 AM EST Friday 14 November 2014




Condition:Clear
Pressure:30.1 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:25.5°F
Dewpoint:21.0°F
Humidity:83%
Wind:W 8 mph
Wind Chill: 17
There was a fracking accident today in Colorado. The frigid weather had froze a line. When it burst, the water pressure killed one and hurt two.
@358 They might as well have titled it: "AGW Fleets Scorch Earth". But the bit about ecosystems being more sensitive to temperature changes in the tropics and subtropics is interesting. I'm not sure polar bears would buy that, but it does suggest a different slant than just the raw temp values, which I found interesting.
Quoting 353. DonnieBwkGA:

57/73 today. Still mild--61. Winter is coming.


Its funny how its often colder here in Tallahassee than up where you are in Georgia, of course, you're farther east, so obviously the front reaches me first, but its still interesting. Also our forecast lows look colder as well.
Quoting 361. Skyepony:

There was a fracking accident today in Colorado. The frigid weather had froze a line. When it burst, the water pressure killed one and hurt two.


sadly, it sounds like they were not doing it safely .. pressure should have been reduced before any thawing was undertaken .. but that wasn't probably the fast way of doing things .. but considering the company involved ..
Extract from Patrap 358:-

"The Mora team found that by one measurement — ocean acidity — Earth has already crossed the threshold into an entirely new regime. That happened in about 2008, with every year since then more acidic than the old record, according to study co-author Abby Frazier."

I find this statement interesting, as it is evidence that something HAS changed.
Before with things like temps and weather, things return to the older readings and as such are open to dispute as to whether they ARE anomalies, or spikes?
This positive increase in the ocean acidity is not going to reverse itself and return to past levels.
This from humanities point of view is a permanent change and if not now, soon will become irreversible.
Probably the first feature of climate change, which cannot be challenged.

Unlike temperature variations acidity can be always be measured by anyone with the equipment to do so.
Something that the doubters cannot easily put down.
I was just looking at the European rain forecast for the next few days and it looks like there will be heavy and persistent rain over the north of Italy and Austria/Switzerland areas.
This will no doubt swell the rivers in the area, as the ground is continuing saturated from weeks of rain already.

Here is a link to the site with some interesting animations, there will probably be all sorts of flooding problems out of this system during the next week:-

Link

It will be interesting if it is mainly rain and not snow from a flooding point of view. If it is snow on the high grounds, then it will probably be record falls.
Not playing politics, but this was absolutely painful to watch. I must admit when I was in college I was pretty oblivious to current events because I was so focused on school, but these questions were so simple. I hope they just cherry picked the bad answers because if this is a representative sample, we are screw@d.

Quoting 325. rayduray2013:


Fame and celebrity tend to create a rather warped reality for the rest of us it would seem. Here's a rather disheartening look at what conservatism and a failure to educate our youth is bringing forth in Lubbock, Texas.

I'll bet you everyone one of these know-nothing kids knows about Al Roker and his stunt, while failing to address their stunted information base.

http://climatecrocks.com/2014/11/11/off-topic-but -on-point-lubbock-we-have-a-problem/



Link
Date: Thursday, November 13, 2014

Provided by: Collier County Engineering & Natural Resources Department

Current Conditions: Below are the most recent red tide sampling results. Very low to high concentrations of red tide are present along and off shore of Collier beaches. We have had reports of dead fish and respiratory irritation at Vanderbilt and Lowdermilk Park beaches. A few dead fish have also been reported on Vanderbilt, Lowdermilk and Naples beaches between Gordon Pass and Naples Pier. The dead fish were minimal and have already washed out with the tide.

Forecast: Red tide impacts at all County beaches are likely through the weekend. NOAA satellite imagery continues to track an area of elevated chlorophyll concentrations along and offshore from Lee to Collier County.

Based on current results, people with chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma or emphysema should avoid going to the beach as these illnesses may be aggravated.

The next sampling event will be until Monday, November 17, 2014.


Definitely apparent from the moment you get out of the car at the beaches especially if the wind is onshore.
No mention of it anywhere in the news....
don't want to scare off the $$$....

Looks like I will head to the northern home today in Englewood to surf red tide free zone.
Quoting 357. georgevandenberghe:



I also observed wet flakes in College Park. Mostly rain though but some splats on the windshield and car tops.


I got an inch of snow and there were accidents left and right.
Quoting 353. DonnieBwkGA:

57/73 today. Still mild--61. Winter is coming.
light snow at my house right now
doug nonsense i did not become a liberal to college. reading the truth about the vietnam war how we got in political decisions. luckily the draft ended a month or so before i was eligible. my brother was no so lucky
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


The public education system is way liberal as are the universities and colleges and the main-stream media outlets. This is not the result of conservatism. It is exactly the opposite. Young people in this country are fed a liberal agenda from day one in schools all across this country. How you can make such a ridiculous statement is beyond the pale.
The sad truth is that, as with so many other programs, the insane anti-government wing of one political party has worked faithfully to defund public education over the years so they can now point at it and say, "See? The government can't do anything right!" Meanwhile, one private, for-profit school after another has been forced to close in shame, its sad legacy yet another batch of under-, mis-, or un-educated children. (Which is good for the Fox faction of that low-information party, I suppose.)
Quoting 374. islander101010:

doug nonsense i did not become a liberal to college. reading the truth about the vietnam war how we got in political decisions. luckily the draft ended a month or so before i was eligible. my brother was no so lucky

It did not start in college. Way before that. If you had to bet who those kids voted for in the last wto Presidential elections, who would bet on?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Thow more money at public education? That's the problem? Everything you post is designed to mislead and misinform the low info crowd. How do you live with yourself?
With a few obvious exceptions, I seriously doubt "the low info crowd" is browsing the forum right now; they're too busy watching the brain trust of Doocy, Hasselbeck, and Kilmeade... ;-)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13 @ 336

Maybe, but that's not exclusively an issue with the youth, so I don't think it's fair to generalize our generation as you did.
As you mature, you'll come to realize that not all complaints should be taken personally. :)

I certainly did not single you out. Nor, heavens, did I intend to. My intent was otherwise. More to the point of what I was getting at is that the U.S. has largely allowed its education system to cease to educate and more so instill a culture of baby sitting. Another loaded expression, I'd guess.

But the point is not that the youth are failing. It is that our society's institutions are failing our youth.

Take for but one example the way education is paid for in civilized states like Germany, Scandinavia, much of the EU and advanced Asian nations like Singapore. In each of these nations, education is considered a responsibility of society and the cost to the student, up to an including post-graduate levels, is essentially free to the student and a burden on the whole of society. Only in a barbaric and mean-spirited nation like the U.S. are children forced into debt penury by a malevolent system that rewards a tiny elite of money-masters while crushing the middle class of society in every way conceivable.
Since you disdain FOX so much, which media outlets would you recommend folks get their current news and political info from?

Quoting sar2401:
I'm not clear how you linked conservatism and the answers in that video. Since all the people questioned graduated high school and are now in college, it seems like they at least have the opportunity for education. I think the problem is that a significant number of young people get their knowledge from TV and Netflix. I noticed there wasn't one history major interviewed but many "soft" majors. I don't know if this was chance or self-selection by the makers of the video, but I suspect it's the latter. To a lot of kids today, history is sometime before we had cell phones, and it's just not all that interesting. Since I was a history minor, it's kind of disheartening, but not really surprising. I think that if students with those same types of majors were interviewed at almost any college today, they probably would have had the same results. Given how few history courses are actually required in high school and college, it's going to be the exceptional student that would have been able to answer those questions correctly.
Conservatism is a disease in America today. While I once respected the likes of William F. Buckley, Jr. for his ineffable expression of erudition or the ethical honesty and probity of a pol like Barry Goldwater, there's nothing but a profound distaste and disrespect that any honesty thinking person can have for the likes of the lying trio of Sean Hannity, Glenn Beck and Anne Coulter. To pick three of dozens of pundits all engaged in bending a basically decent population toward submission to fascism.

Just look at the example salient to the interests of many here at WU. The future cimate is in the hands of humanity. Every intelligent person knows that. Yet what is conservatism offering us? As head of the Senate Environment Committee we are getting the puke who wrote the book calling AGW a hoax.

If this isn't enough to make you gag, you're not paying enough attention. :)

***
There is a reason that history is not being taught to our children today. It is because history is full of amazing revolutions, movements, reformations and struggle. Corporations do not want people to understand any of this. Corporations, more and more setting the standards of education in the Anglo-American world are creating a generation of docile, indebted consumers. It turns out consumers are at their most useful when they don't know enough to complaini about shoddy goods, or about services that society can and should provide outside of the profit system.

Sorry, now I'm getting way off topic.

But even in the weather world we see the corporate game vs. weather forecasting and climate research as a public service. I recall the last years of the Bush/Cheney era with some dread because of the thrust to eviscerate the National Weather Service and put all weather forcasting behind a pay wall. What a dumb, obnoxious, greedy idea. But that America, in a nutshell. Or in a nuthouse. Take you pick. And climate science? Fuggedaboutit. If the corporations had their way, we'd ban the study of climate. It's bad for dinosaur industries, after all.
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Wow I want to cry, and you'd get the same responses here for UK centric questions ARGH! Much goes to what their parents presented them with while growing up I'm sure, so can't only blame the kids. What makes it sadder is when they can name off reality tv celebs,,,you know you;re screwed :S
Thanks for the Welsh point of view. Here in the U.S. more people know who Kim Kardashian is (by an order of magnitude) than who know who David Cameron, Stephen Harper, Mitch McConnell or Tony Abbott might be.

The only reason the kids know who Obama is is because he's handled like a rock star celebrity.

Back in 2008 the Ad Age magazine gave first prize for best advertising campaign of year not to Apple Computer but to the Obama campaign. That pretty much tells you how ersatz this nation has become.
Winter has made it to the Southeast coastline. It's 42 right now, but a brisk northeast wind is making it feel like it's in the 30s; a far cry from the 70s we've been dealing with lately. Highs shouldn't make it to 50 today and then we dip into the mid-20s tonight.

Looks colder next week.
Quoting 380. PensacolaDoug:
Since you disdain FOX so much, which media outlets would you recommend folks get their current news and political info from?


None. Do not watch the news, period. Its full of falsehoods, truth stretching, outright lies, stupid fluff and all sorts of other meaningless, dumb crap. CNN actually wants to look at the 32 best "selfies of the week".

Go to the library, go online, read reasearch papers, read corporate earnings reports (the whole thing, not the dumbed down executive summary), read history books, read the pro AGW websites, read the anti AGW websites, read as much as you can on every topic from as many different sources as you can; just please, for the love of god, don't read or watch the news.

Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


You've added one more approximation by linearly approximating an exponential function, but your approximation is valid in this case.

6.1094 e^(17.625 T / (T + 243.05)) is an approximation to reality,

k 1.07^T is an approximation to that,

and then your linear approximation was an approximation to that, which was valid because it was used over a sufficiently short interval.

Without using a linear approximation for the exponential function, one would use 1.07^(5/9) = about 1.0383. Your approximation of 1 + (7/100) (5/9) = about 1.0389 is almost the same.
Thanks professor! Now I'm certain my math is rusty. :)

Considering the fact that the atmosphere at 100 C. could theoretically be 100% water vapor while at -273 C. it can hold no moisture the notion of a one degree rise in temperature results in a 7% rise in water vapor really only applies at the current average yearly global temperature of about 9.8 C.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Since you disdain FOX so much, which media outlets would you recommend folks get their current news and political info from?
Pretty funny fox dominates in ratings I guess were all stupid. He proberbly watches msnbc
Strangely for mid-November, the Portland, Oregon metro area and Willamette Valley has also been affected by Winter Storm Bozeman. One-tenth to one-quarter inch of ice accumulation was observed Thursday morning in parts of the Portland metro, as well as Salem, Corvallis and Eugene, accumulating in trees in some areas.

The precipitation changed over to rain in the southern Willamette Valley later Thursday morning, but a renewed push of colder air flipped the precipitation back to snow and freezing rain in the afternoon. Large flakes were seen falling in Corvallis, Oregon, and Vancouver, Washington, on Thursday afternoon while ice coated cars and sidewalks in Portland due to freezing rain. Walking was nearly impossible on sidewalks in some of the city's hillier neighborhoods.
Snowfall Reports
Snowfall was locally heavy from the Cascades east into the mountains of Idaho and Colorado. Top snowfall totals by state as of 8 p.m. PST Thursday included:

- Montana: 21.4 inches at Black Bear SNOTEL (elevation 8,150 feet) in far western Montana.

- Wyoming: 20.3 inches at Grassy Lake SNOTEL (elevation 7,265 feet) in far western Wyoming.

- Idaho: 15.2 inches at Giveout SNOTEL (elevation 6,932 feet) in the mountains of southeast Idaho.

- Colorado: 14 inches near Mount Crested Butte and near Monarch Pass.

- Oregon: 10.0 inches near Black Butte Ranch in central Oregon.

- Utah: 7.2 inches at Klondike Narrows SNOTEL (elevation 7,200 feet) near the Idaho border.

- Washington: 1.2 inches in College Place, southeast Washington.

Snowfall amounts will not be extraordinary by winter standards, but will be rather impressive for mid-November. Given the cold weather preceding the storm and the sleet and freezing rain mixing in at some locations, untreated pavement could become quite slick -- and already has in the Portland area.

Expect difficult driving conditions to continue on Interstate 84 from the Columbia River Gorge eastward into Idaho, as well as U.S. Highways 20 and 26 from the Cascade passes of Oregon eastward across the rest of the state and into Idaho.

This snow comes a bit early, relative to average, in eastern Washington and eastern Oregon. The average first measurable snow in Pendleton, Oregon, and Yakima, Washington, comes in the final week of November. In Bend, Oregon, the average date of the first measurable snow is Nov. 17.

Winter Storm Bozeman's snow and ice will stay just south of the Seattle-Tacoma area as well as Snoqualmie Pass on Interstate 90.

A broad area of snow will spread across the central Plains, Missouri Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley, spreading to the Great Lakes Saturday evening.

Snowfall accumulations in most of the Plains and Midwest should remain less than 6 inches, with the possible exception of parts of Kansas. This may be the first measurable snow of the season in Wichita and St. Louis
DId Al Make it? The event says concluded. Thought it should be ending around now..

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Related to the video posted at 325, a response from the video makers.

dAdd: I'd like to see some "live" interviews asking the questions in the vid at 325. Nevermind. In a lot of ways it's good these students can't remember who "won the Civil War."
You're joking about the benefits of not knowing who won the Civil War, right? Or at least I hope you were kidding. :)

The video here nails the problem we face. Today's youth are being inundated with a self-serving corporate reality culture that is devoid of any redeeming quality whatsoever. It is a debasement of civilization into a petty popularity/distraction show.
I've been following the Dawlish train vs waves this week in my blog. Posted an updated video lastnight of this in there.

Extreme Weather in United Kingdom on Friday, 14 November, 2014 at 05:50 (05:50 AM) UTC.
Description
Heavy rain and severe gales have been causing problems in the Devon, Cornwall and Somerset today, with rail services and roads disrupted and winds of up to 93miles per hour recorded. Promenades across the Westcountry were sealed off and rail services interrupted for the second time in days along the coastal line in Devon as giant waves were whipped up by gale-force winds and sent crashing over sea defences. The Met Office posted an amber-grade warning for wind, the second highest alert, and the Environment Agency raised a dozen flood alerts across the South West. In Cornwall a set of ancient stone steps at Polperro harbour was washed away by a high tide and the force of the waves. Will Fathers, who has lived there for 13 years, said he had been stunned by the force of the sea. "They were heavy granite steps and they were just washed away," he said. "The south easterly direction of the wind was just the right angle to cause a lot of damage." The bad weather once again forced cancellations of mainline train services passing through Dawlish, where new sea defences costing L35 million were built after the destruction in February were severely tested. Before the closure trains passing through the resort were being swamped as waves swept over the sea wall. A row of sea containers filled with stones remain in place at the point where the sea wall was breached and bore the brunt of the breakers. One cyclist was pictured being dwarfed by a giant wave as he pedalled along the sea wall towards Dawlish station. It was the second time this week that rail services had been cancelled - after bad weather on Tuesday - and left trains running between 8am and 10am to be terminated at Exeter St Davids. Forecasters at the Met Office said winds were generally between 60 and 70mph at coastal spots such as Plymouth. Rainfall was relatively low for the time of year, just 8mm in Devon and 7mm in Cornwall over a 12-hour period. However, a gust of 93mph was recorded at Berry Head, near Brixham shortly before midday today. Spokesman for the Exeter-based organisation Laura Young said the measurement came at one of the region's most notoriously windy places. "We are treating it as a one-off as Berry Head is one of those very exposed spots, like the Needles," she added. "It has been very windy but is starting to calm down now. A fresh storm will bring heavy rain overnight - up to 20mm in a sort period - but by 6am the majority will have cleared leaving a dry day. "Saturday and Sunday will see strong gusts but nothing like we have seen today. "The beginning of next week is looking calm and settled, at least until Wednesday afternoon." In Torquay the seafront remained closed for a second day as waves smashed in to the sea wall and lapped over in to the road.
Quoting Skyepony:
DId Al Make it? The event says concluded. Thought it should be ending around now..


Yes, they ended the stream around 8:00am after a short celebration.

And he's still at work doing his regular day on the Today Show.
1132 PM HEAVY SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
11/13/2014 M49.3 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER


more snow!!
33 degrees outside with the annoying winds.I told you all the trees back in July were turning and that could mean the cold will be intense and early.No one believed me.Well here's your proof.Looks like Thanksgiving will be mild.Sucks because I brought this really pretty pink sweater from Macy's.

Quoting Patrap:
Submitted for your "approval".

An excerpt from their conversation regarding artificial intelligence is shown below:

.....   W: "Are you an intelligent machine, or something created by one?"
MOTK: "If I were an intelligent machine, I would deceive you."
Patrap,

Reading this reminded me of a classic in the literature on AI. In a debate between Bill Joy and Ray Kurzweil in 2000, Joy stated the obvious: "The Future Doesn't Need Us".

OTOH, the youth of today might wish to apply themselves to the design of robots, if they hope to maintain gainful employment for any period of time. There's going to be an insane level of competition in the barista trade in the future, from what I can tell.
Well, it's a long way out, but the GFS finally hints at a pattern possibly conducive to severe weather in the southeast in 10 days or so. Whether it could become anything with all the cold air round is highly questionable, but far far too early to even attempt to speculate... After the system it would be back to the freezer again.
Congratulations to Al Roker! In a superhuman feat he has shattered the previous world record and broadcast weather for 34 hours straight! Truly a great meteorologist who has just accomplished one of the crowning achievements of our generation!!!
Quoting 384. tlawson48:



None. Do not watch the news, period. Its full of falsehoods, truth stretching, outright lies, stupid fluff and all sorts of other meaningless, dumb crap. CNN actually wants to look at the 32 best "selfies of the week".

Go to the library, go online, read reasearch papers, read corporate earnings reports (the whole thing, not the dumbed down executive summary), read history books, read the pro AGW websites, read the anti AGW websites, read as much as you can on every topic from as many different sources as you can; just please, for the love of god, don't read or watch the news.


Watch Fox, MSNBC, watch news from around the world, read papers around the US and then read what papers around the world are saying. Do deep dives to find the truth by researching the internet for nuggets of truth on subjects the media talks about. News media in the US is really bad and really controlled to keep us so. And by so, I mean ignorant, divided almost 50/50, and turned off from what's really happening. Only by seeking many many sources to find what the buried truth is can one be truly informed. That goes for the Right and Left.
Quoting 390. rayduray2013:


You're joking about the benefits of not knowing who won the Civil War, right? Or at least I hope you were kidding. :)

The video here nails the problem we face. Today's youth are being inundated with a self-serving corporate reality culture that is devoid of any redeeming quality whatsoever. It is a debasement of civilization into a petty popularity/distraction show.



From a "youth's perspective" although in some aspects that video is accurate, I do not believe it to be incredibly representative of the majority of youth today. And certainly I do not believe the youth of today are much worse off than those of previous generations, nor is civilization going downhill. Nearly every generation has expressed that sentiment about the generation after it (a generation they raised and influenced), yet we continue to progress along admirably and discover new things.
no *accumulating* snow last night, but I think there were some flurries at about 755 or so. Heavy frost this morning and 19 degrees right now.
Did Al Roker break the record?
i hope that I name Winter Storm Albus soon.
Quoting 62901IL:
no *accumulating* snow last night, but I think there were some flurries at about 755 or so. Heavy frost this morning and 19 degrees right now.
Did Al Roker break the record?


Yes, scroll down the page a few comments and you'll see information on this.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yes, scroll down the page a few comments and you'll see information on this.

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!
I KNEW HE COULD DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!
In honor of the record, we shall sing Ganon your Face.
*begins singing Ganon Your Face.
Quoting 402. GeorgiaStormz:



From a "youth's perspective" although in some aspects that video is accurate, I do not believe it to be incredibly representative of the majority of youth today. And certainly I do not believe the youth of today are much worse off than those of previous generations, nor is civilization going downhill. Nearly every generation has expressed that sentiment about the generation after it (a generation they raised and influenced), yet we continue to progress along admirably and discover new things.


Celebration of self and pretty over content is now the new accepted norm for many of our youth and adults for that matter. We've fallen behind all of South America, Eastern Europe, Vietnam, and so many more nations in the world educationally. The rise of technology and the decline in intellectualism has mirrored each other perfectly. I agree with much of what your expressing though. We are educationally, intellectually, and morally declining at a free fall rate in America now. We've seen this exact thing with many a great nation throughout history and the result has been the same every time, and the collapses have been epic. Millions of kids don't fit into this mold and the reasons for hope certainly exists. The trend though is certainly a sad and overall negative one though.

Quoting Skyepony:
I've been following the Dawlish train vs waves this week in my blog. Posted an updated video lastnight of this in there.

Thanks for the Dawlish news/video. Last year's railway washout seemed a one-off. Now it seems that these huge wave sets are becoming the new normal. This is going to get mighty expensive.
A long way out, but interesting..

Quoting 407. DeepSeaRising:



Celebration of self and pretty over content is now the new accepted norm for many of our youth and adults for that matter. We've fallen behind all of South America, Eastern Europe, Vietnam, and so many more nations in the world educationally. The rise of technology and the decline in intellectualism has mirrored each other perfectly. I agree with much of what your expressing though. We are educationally, intellectually, and morally declining at a free fall rate in America now. We've seen this exact thing with many a great nation throughout history and the result has been the same every time, and the collapses have been epic. Millions of kids don't fit into this mold and the reasons for hope certainly exists. The trend though is certainly a sad and overall negative one though.


it doesn't look good down the road decades from now, in fact it's scary.
First morning I had to grab a jacket when it wasn't raining in what 7, 8 months?
Quoting Llamaluvr:
Congratulations to Al Roker! In a superhuman feat he has shattered the previous world record and broadcast weather for 34 hours straight! Truly a great meteorologist who has just accomplished one of the crowning achievements of our generation!!!
Crowning achievement? Surely you jest. Al's stunt reminds me of the movie "They Shoot Horses Don't They?"


Morn'n everyone. 36 in the FL panhandle this morning. That's just wrong...
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Morn'n everyone. 36 in the FL panhandle this morning. That's just wrong...

and 22 here. BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 412. rayduray2013:


Crowning achievement? Surely you jest. Al's stunt reminds me of the movie "They Shoot Horses Don't They?"





There's the problem right there,

Quoting Llamaluvr:
Congratulations to Al Roker! In a superhuman feat he has shattered the previous world record and broadcast weather for 34 hours straight! Truly a great meteorologist who has just accomplished one of the crowning achievements of our generation!!!

Quoting RitaEvac:


There's the problem right there,

Quoting Llamaluvr:
Congratulations to Al Roker! In a superhuman feat he has shattered the previous world record and broadcast weather for 34 hours straight! Truly a great meteorologist who has just accomplished one of the crowning achievements of our generation!!!


what's the problem?????????????
Quoting 416. 62901IL:


what's the problem?????????????


Read post 410
be back later.
This is very typical of the west coast of Florida. The red tide news is always hidden by the news media as it would be very bad for tourism. Sadly out of state people come here to go to the beach only to find them impossible to go to due to the red tide. That's why the east coast is better as the west coast beaches have too many issues besides the water is not very clear.



Quoting 370. Abacosurf:

Link
Date: Thursday, November 13, 2014

Provided by: Collier County Engineering & Natural Resources Department

Current Conditions: Below are the most recent red tide sampling results. Very low to high concentrations of red tide are present along and off shore of Collier beaches. We have had reports of dead fish and respiratory irritation at Vanderbilt and Lowdermilk Park beaches. A few dead fish have also been reported on Vanderbilt, Lowdermilk and Naples beaches between Gordon Pass and Naples Pier. The dead fish were minimal and have already washed out with the tide.

Forecast: Red tide impacts at all County beaches are likely through the weekend. NOAA satellite imagery continues to track an area of elevated chlorophyll concentrations along and offshore from Lee to Collier County.

Based on current results, people with chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma or emphysema should avoid going to the beach as these illnesses may be aggravated.

The next sampling event will be until Monday, November 17, 2014.


Definitely apparent from the moment you get out of the car at the beaches especially if the wind is onshore.
No mention of it anywhere in the news....
don't want to scare off the $$$....

Looks like I will head to the northern home today in Englewood to surf red tide free zone.

Wow. Seems like progressively diving deeper with each successive model run. It's looking like it's going to be tough to break 40F here in SC middle of next week. May as well be January.

Quoting 393. hydrus:


lol. Where's Capt. Trough when you need him?

Quoting 397. washingtonian115:

33 degrees outside with the annoying winds.I told you all the trees back in July were turning and that could mean the cold will be intense and early.No one believed me.Well here's your proof.Looks like Thanksgiving will be mild.Sucks because I brought this really pretty pink sweater from Macy's.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


From a "youth's perspective" although in some aspects that video is accurate, I do not believe it to be incredibly representative of the majority of youth today. And certainly I do not believe the youth of today are much worse off than those of previous generations, nor is civilization going downhill. Nearly every generation has expressed that sentiment about the generation after it (a generation they raised and influenced), yet we continue to progress along admirably and discover new things.
Civilizations come and go, hit peaks and valleys. Surely you cannot say that you think the youth of America are anything like the youth of Chile who successfully staved off the right wing attempts to enforce debt slavery on them. That's already happened here to the tune of $1 Trillion and growing. Surely you noticed that the Congress manipulated the bankruptcy laws in the 1990s to make sure that once the debt-for-education racket got started in earnest that a couple hundred years worth of improvements to fairness in the bankruptcy laws were obliterated in order to "protect" the financial elites. Or perhaps history is something you've been persuaded to think is not important.

What I'm trying to point out is that change is not necessarily progress. Discovering new tipping points indicating the failure of our planet to possibly support the human population is not progress. New gadgets from the likes of Apple are more distractions and fads than they are progress. New "social networking" features of the internet such as Facebook and Twitter are obvious wastes of time and a dimming down of the medium. They are not progress from something as archaic as this comment feature on a website. Imagine trying to do what we do with a limitation......
.
..
.
.
.
.
of a maximum of 140 characters.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
How's that for twittering away cohesive, analytical thought? :)
Quoting 397. washingtonian115:

33 degrees outside with the annoying winds.I told you all the trees back in July were turning and that could mean the cold will be intense and early.No one believed me.Well here's your proof.Looks like Thanksgiving will be mild.Sucks because I brought this really pretty pink sweater from Macy's.


We're going to have a cold week. Remarkably cold but not unprecedented. The pattern of the week does not necessarily portend the pattern of the winter.

I did think much more of fall 2014 would look like this coming week.. I've been wrong so far this season.

Tonight's forecast temps are at the threshold where I have to protect my citrus, rare in November. The trees would be fine for another five degrees colder (and tuesday night is a threat there!) but the fruits might freeze and I got a lot this year. It means hauling them under the porch or into the unheated garage. I last had fruits freeze Jan 1, 1998.

Winter 1997-98 was the only year I didn't have to protect the trees ... until a mid March arctic outbreak.

We might need to turn the heat on (but I dought it)next Wednesday morning down here in South Florida.
Definitely going to be cold.
GFS is showing record cold for Florida.


Quoting 407. DeepSeaRising:



Celebration of self and pretty over content is now the new accepted norm for many of our youth and adults for that matter. We've fallen behind all of South America, Eastern Europe, Vietnam, and so many more nations in the world educationally. The rise of technology and the decline in intellectualism has mirrored each other perfectly. I agree with much of what your expressing though. We are educationally, intellectually, and morally declining at a free fall rate in America now. We've seen this exact thing with many a great nation throughout history and the result has been the same every time, and the collapses have been epic. Millions of kids don't fit into this mold and the reasons for hope certainly exists. The trend though is certainly a sad and overall negative one though.

Each generation has used different means to express themselves, it's just easier for our generation to do so because of technological advances. You can't tell me when you were a young teen that you sat around reading about the demise of Rome, or the Civil War, or anything like that--and if you did, you certainly weren't part of the norm.
351. Patrap
4:42 AM GMT on November 14, 2014

tesla is close to us...for a while i have wanted to see if they do tours of their facility...

hiya pat
Clouds and light breeze help kept the freeze away last night. Well north of Houston did touch freezing or below. It was clear and calm at 10:45pm at 38.7F and was well on our way to a freeze, luckily the clouds and wind came in to save the day. Was still 37-38 this morning.
Early winter here in Central Oregon. 19 degrees and freezing rain. Every school in the region is closed today.


cold morning!!
Quoting 429. rayduray2013:

Early winter here in Central Oregon. 19 degrees and freezing rain. Every school in the region is closed today.

Quoting 422. rayduray2013:


Civilizations come and go, hit peaks and valleys. Surely you cannot say that you think the youth of America are anything like the youth of Chile who successfully staved off the right wing attempts to enforce debt slavery on them. That's already happened here to the tune of $1 Trillion and growing. Surely you noticed that the Congress manipulated the bankruptcy laws in the 1990s to make sure that once the debt-for-education racket got started in earnest that a couple hundred years worth of improvements to fairness in the bankruptcy laws were obliterated in order to "protect" the financial elites. Or perhaps history is something you've been persuaded to think is not important.

What I'm trying to point out is that change is not necessarily progress. Discovering new tipping points indicating the failure of our planet to possibly support the human population is not progress. New gadgets from the likes of Apple are more distractions and fads than they are progress. New "social networking" features of the internet such as Facebook and Twitter are obvious wastes of time and a dimming down of the medium. They are not progress from something as archaic as this comment feature on a website. Imagine trying to do what we do with a limitation......
.
..
.
.
.
.
of a maximum of 140 characters.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
How's that for twittering away cohesive, analytical thought? :)




It's quite disheartening to see the unanimously negative opinions you all express concerning my generation.

Needless to say I disagree with the majority of your sentiments. The social media of today, is no worse than the bootlegging and parties of the Roaring Twenties, and certainly offers much more usefulness and functionality. Yet many people called the generation of the 1940s the "greatest ever". How's that for a decline. New gadgets ARE progress - we are constantly building a more connected world. Like anything, these gadgets and tools can be used frivolously and without good purpose, but that is true of many things.

The fact is, the youth of today WILL go on and continue to produce and discover new things, and effectively progress society.

And contrary to what you might think, I believe history is INCREDIBLY important, as it provides a framework for how to operate in the present. With regard to things like debt increase and moral decay - debt wasn't made by my generation, that was yours. That issue is one that I cannot yet predict how they will play out, but that it can eventually be fixed and resolved. As for "moral decay", that perhaps is dependent on your personal morals/religion. The moral shift observed in todays society is neither a complete shift nor a tremendously detrimental one.

Problems like climate change, world population, food shortages, and conservation will be addressed by my generation, and I believe we will do quite admirably in our efforts. Never in a society has EVERYONE been a juggernaut in all things - all societies have been built on the average working person/family, but this generation like all others is entirely competent to handle the times ahead.

I only wish a lot of you felt the same, after all this is how YOU made us.

PS
140 characters is a lot - it allows more information flow in shorter time. You CAN learn much more from a twitter feed than you can from a blog comment section of the same length. Just saying.
Quoting 352. georgevandenberghe:



I've said before on this blog that chains properly applied will make you absolutely safe on ice.

Chain the garage door handle shut with the car inside.. There.. Done! You're safe till it melts

(Seriously Chains are actually more effective than anything else for ice but they wear out and break quickly onpavement. I dimly remember my father using them in DC when I was 6, thereafter he used snow tires.)


Also chains and studded tires are illegal in some jurisdictions because of the damage they do to pavement.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Each generation has used different means to express themselves, it's just easier for our generation to do so because of technological advances. You can't tell me when you were a young teen that you sat around reading about the demise of Rome, or the Civil War, or anything like that--and if you did, you certainly weren't part of the norm.


Discipline and respect are at the root of the problem.
Quoting 421. HaoleboySurfEC:

lol. Where's Capt. Trough when you need him?




Superseded by Admiral Vortex.

Quoting 401. DeepSeaRising:



Watch Fox, MSNBC, watch news from around the world, read papers around the US and then read what papers around the world are saying. Do deep dives to find the truth by researching the internet for nuggets of truth on subjects the media talks about. News media in the US is really bad and really controlled to keep us so. And by so, I mean ignorant, divided almost 50/50, and turned off from what's really happening. Only by seeking many many sources to find what the buried truth is can one be truly informed. That goes for the Right and Left.
Quoting 401. DeepSeaRising:



Watch Fox, MSNBC, watch news from around the world, read papers around the US and then read what papers around the world are saying. Do deep dives to find the truth by researching the internet for nuggets of truth on subjects the media talks about. News media in the US is really bad and really controlled to keep us so. And by so, I mean ignorant, divided almost 50/50, and turned off from what's really happening. Only by seeking many many sources to find what the buried truth is can one be truly informed. That goes for the Right and Left.
Removed remark



Quoting 434. Sfloridacat5:



Discipline and respect are at the root of the problem.



A condition true of teenagers for the past 200,000 years.

Some things never change :-(

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



It's quite disheartening to see the unanimously negative opinions you all express concerning my generation.

You are completely misunderstanding my intention. You are wrong about me complaining about the youth. I'm attempting to say that in the past, America has treated its youth with more love, affection, kindness and care.

It is those who rule this nation who are largely to be blamed for a nation that no longer is shocked at how many kids in school are homeless. This was unheard of only a couple of decades ago. This was  a conscious choice made by our elites to destroy America's manufacturing base and move all the jobs overseas, replacing well-paid jobs with debt machinations.

If you're really sincere about your interest in history, let me encourage you to pick up Kevin Phillips' "Wealth and Democracy". In this wonderfully erudite study, Phillips compares the rise of finance in America starting about 1980 to the demise of the Spanish Empire in the 19th Century and the prowess of Holland as Europe's leading commercial nation which fell into decline also in the 19th Century. Both nations turned from profitable trade to finance. And both were relics within decades.

***
Well, I missed the mark. You say my comments have disheartened you. That is the exact opposite of my intention. My intention was to stir your generation to anger at how you are being cheated out of your future by a handful of grasping billionaires who have set a rotten course for the rest of us, while they become so fearful that they are forced to live imprisoned in their gated communities to protect themselves from the rest of us. What's missing in America today is any sense that we need to share the wealth and do more than provide the gullible public with panes et circences, "bread and circuses", like the Al Roker act.
Quoting 433. JohnLonergan:



Also chains and studded tires are illegal in some jurisdictions because of the damage they do to pavement.


I didn't know chains were illegal. I first read about studded tire restrictions when I was eight or nine in the late 60s.
Quoting 410. RitaEvac:



it doesn't look good down the road decades from now, in fact it's scary.


In a solution driven culture, we seem to be in a predicament, and that has brought on discomfort with groundlessness.

By 25, I had already been CS gassed on 3 continents, had helped stop a war, and was experiencing new cultures, staying in 8 peso a night hotels, and fully engaged in life.

Quoting 434. Sfloridacat5:



Discipline and respect are at the root of the problem.


Partially. How people choose to act is a decision they have to make themselves and not all dependent on the parents. My mom taught me how to be respectful and responsible, but that doesn't mean I have to be.

Quoting georgevandenberghe:


Superseded by Admiral Vortex.

Ah, yes. I believe he's a first cousin of General Winter. It is said he was responsible for the stunning failure of Napoleon's 1812 Russian campaign.


Quoting 421. HaoleboySurfEC:

lol. Where's Capt. Trough when you need him?




He is a seasonal super hero I suppose, Florida Man however is with us year round. http://www.reddit.com/r/floridaman
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Partially. How people choose to act is a decision they have to make themselves and not all dependent on the parents. My mom taught me how to be respectful and responsible, but that doesn't mean I have to be.


As a teacher with 20 years experience, I've seen a big change over the years.

The pattern is obvious to the people who have worked with children for many years.

Quoting cytochromeC:

By 25, I had already been CS gassed on 3 continents, had helped stop a war,

I'm curious. Which war? I'm guessing I didn't read about it because it didn't happen. :)

BTW, I've only been gassed on one continent. But I can still remember three distinctly different gas mixes.
He made an impressive encore performance roughly 130 years later.

Quoting 442. rayduray2013:


Ah, yes. I believe he's a first cousin of General Winter. It is said he was responsible for the stunning failure of Napoleon's 1812 Russian campaign.



no Snowcover in the northeast right now!!
449. yoboi
Legislation to approve the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline began racing through the U.S. Congress on Wednesday as Democrats and Republicans appeared to be coming together in a challenge of President Barack Obama's oversight of the project.

In a series of rapid developments that unfolded just hours after Congress returned from a seven-week recess, there were indications the measure could pass and be sent to Obama sometime next week.


Link

Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
He made an impressive encore performance roughly 130 years later.

Indeed. :)
Quoting 444. Sfloridacat5:



As a teacher with 20 years experience, I've seen a big change over the years.

The pattern is obvious to the people who have worked with children for many years.


You also have to remember that during those 20 years, the students age didn't change, (if so then not much), but your age did. However, i am inclined to agree with your statement. I am a 22 y/o law enforcement officer for a local jurisdiction. I have seen that, although we do arrest quite a few people that are up in age, the majority of arrestees are around my age, and a lot of them are even younger. It's rather disheartening to be honest with you.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
no Snowcover in the northeast right now!!


If I was in the Northeast I would get out and try to enjoy the Fall weather before Winter quickly takes over and refuses to leave until April.
But as a long time snow lover, I can understand your wanting of the white stuff.
Quoting 453. Sfloridacat5:



If I was in the Northeast I would get out and try to enjoy the Fall weather before Winter quickly takes over and refuses to leave until April.
But as a long time snow lover, I can understand your wanting of the white stuff.

all the trees are bare
not a leaf left on them
now the snow can come
Quoting 425. Sfloridacat5:

We might need to turn the heat on (but I dought it)next Wednesday morning down here in South Florida.
Definitely going to be cold.
GFS is showing record cold for Florida.





The NWS out of Ruskin (Tampa) isn't buying the real cold yet. They are forecasting lows in the lower 40's to near 40. We'll see if they stick to their guns or get more aggressive as we get closer. The NWS out of Melbourne is saying the same thing for the Orlando area. Low 40's to near 40.

We are early in the year to get a freeze in Central Fl but the air mass is so cold that it wouldn't surprise me if we get close - especially in the traditional colder locations.

Quoting yoboi:
Legislation to approve the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline began racing t
Great grandstanding by Mary Landrieu. :)
tomorrow morning feels like temp
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 456. rayduray2013:


Great grandstanding by Mary Landrieu. :)

great news for alberta
Wainwright, Alaska--a town on the north shore of Alaska along the Arctic coast, where the sun today will only reach a few degrees above the horizon, and then for just a few short hours--is currently at 32 degrees. That's warmer than many areas in the Lower 48, and it's the same temperature as a number of other locations such as Fort Smith, Arkansas:



Quoting 432. GeorgiaStormz:




Although I absolutely hate the non-weather related posts here, I think you hit the nail on the head with this one here, Georgia. Also, it's good to see you, I feel like I havn't read anything from you in quite some time.
Quoting 445. rayduray2013:


I'm curious. Which war? I'm guessing I didn't read about it because it didn't happen. :)

BTW, I've only been gassed on one continent. But I can still remember three distinctly different gas mixes.



Vietnam of course. 500,000 people in the street makes even the most ideological take notice.

But you are right-- different gasses one must approach with different solutions.

I was in Central America during that mess, but we can't count that.
Quoting 432. GeorgiaStormz:




It's quite disheartening to see the unanimously negative opinions you all express concerning my generation.

Needless to say I disagree with the majority of your sentiments. The social media of today, is no worse than the bootlegging and parties of the Roaring Twenties, and certainly offers much more usefulness and functionality. Yet many people called the generation of the 1940s the "greatest ever". How's that for a decline. New gadgets ARE progress - we are constantly building a more connected world. Like anything, these gadgets and tools can be used frivolously and without good purpose, but that is true of many things.

The fact is, the youth of today WILL go on and continue to produce and discover new things, and effectively progress society.

And contrary to what you might think, I believe history is INCREDIBLY important, as it provides a framework for how to operate in the present. With regard to things like debt increase and moral decay - debt wasn't made by my generation, that was yours. That issue is one that I cannot yet predict how they will play out, but that it can eventually be fixed and resolved. As for "moral decay", that perhaps is dependent on your personal morals/religion. The moral shift observed in todays society is neither a complete shift nor a tremendously detrimental one.

Problems like climate change, world population, food shortages, and conservation will be addressed by my generation, and I believe we will do quite admirably in our efforts. Never in a society has EVERYONE been a juggernaut in all things - all societies have been built on the average working person/family, but this generation like all others is entirely competent to handle the times ahead.

I only wish a lot of you felt the same, after all this is how YOU made us.

PS
140 characters is a lot - it allows more information flow in shorter time. You CAN learn much more from a twitter feed than you can from a blog comment section of the same length. Just saying.
Good morning G.S..I enjoyed reading your post. It is good to see someone from your generation put a perspective on how things are moving , especially with everything that is happening in the world , and in a time when technology and the information age is progressing at a phenomenal rate. You mention in your post that "The social media of today, is no worse than the bootlegging and parties of the Roaring Twenties, and certainly offers much more usefulness and functionality. " This is to me is not a good comparison..The speak Easies and bootlegging in the Roaring Twenties was more of "code of silence" than a social media...All alcohol was illegal in the U.S., one word of alcohol, or someplace that was serving or providing it, was reported, and all it contents destroyed and purveyors jailed ( hence the name " speak Easy ") Most people from that period would tell you that info gathered from the bar was mostly alcohol fueled garbage, and not much different from many bars in existence today..My grandparents born 1904 and 1907 spoke of the twenties will a tone of prosperity, but the Spanish Influenza was a indelible dark period in there lives. The technology aspect of your post is easily understood, it was and is to be expected. Moores Law formulated around 1970, and rapid advances even before then have proved to be world changing in regards to communication, and the faster and faster exchanges with vast amounts of info.. As far as " Moral Decay " Every generation that has ever existed has to answer to there moral shortcomings. Most morals and values are in-stowed into the childs psyche during the formative years by parents and peers, once of age, they can figure out in there own mind what is right from wrong. This is a free country, although we do pay for it in many ways, and we as Americans have different religions, views, and standards to live by. I myself never would super impose my views to what I believe is moral or immoral on anyone..Its simply not my place to do so. My faith in our most recent generation is unwavering, Americans are a spirited bunch, and that is something you can thank earlier generations for. I do not believe this generation, or future generations will be happy with some of the decisions made by past leaders, or the national debt for that matter ( Which a percentage was caused by greed ), but when faced with problems and or adversity..We as a nation, do manage..:)
Local mets here were talking highs about 50 this afternoon before retreating tonight. Last I checked we were at 41F and falling. This is an anomalous piece of cold air. I'm expecting below 25F tonight; well below original forecast. Next Wednesday we may very well dip into the teens.

Makes freezing temps in Orlando not look too unrealistic next week.

Quoting 455. luvtogolf:



The NWS out of Ruskin (Tampa) isn't buying the real cold yet. They are forecasting lows in the lower 40's to near 40. We'll see if they stick to their guns or get more aggressive as we get closer. The NWS out of Melbourne is saying the same thing for the Orlando area. Low 40's to near 40.

We are early in the year to get a freeze in Central Fl but the air mass is so cold that it wouldn't surprise me if we get close - especially in the traditional colder locations.
Quoting 390. rayduray2013:


You're joking about the benefits of not knowing who won the Civil War, right? Or at least I hope you were kidding. :)

The video here nails the problem we face. Today's youth are being inundated with a self-serving corporate reality culture that is devoid of any redeeming quality whatsoever. It is a debasement of civilization into a petty popularity/distraction show.

No, I am not kidding. The fact kids of different racial backgrounds could not remember who won the Civil War is a good sign this culture of ours is moving toward tolerance.

I disagree with the rest of your comment here and your ensuing blanket comments/opinions on youth in the U.S.

Extremely bright youngsters blog here. I have no problem entrusting the future to them and their generation. Not every star shines as bright as another. All have their worth.