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Update on remains of TD 10

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:40 PM GMT on August 22, 2005


I've been reluctant to pay much heed to the remains of TD 10 after declaring the system dead forever and seeing it struggle to maintain its identity as a tropical wave the past few days. However, recent visible satellite images (as of 3pm EDT) indicate the remains of TD 10 may have developed a surface circulation centered just north of Haiti. The cloud pattern continues to look disorganized, but could show some development as the system approaches Florida by Wednesday. The latest "early" track guidance for this system shows it roughly paralleling the coast of Cuba, so development of this system may be substantially hindered by interaction with land. Some of the computer models indicate development of this system into a tropical storm when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico later this week, when the large upper level high anchored over Mississippi that has been creating high shear over the Gulf finally moves off to the west. I'm not a believer, I think the environment for the remains of TD 10 will still be too hostile to permit a tropical storm from developing.



Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Look at this link for projected track of td 10. what do u think.Link
keep faith stormt, she aint turning out to sea yet lol

also i am sorry that is not the llc. it is a swirl but not the llc. the blob has its own circulation spinning by its self. if that was the llc the blob would not be circulating as it is here is a closer view


Link
lefty..that link ...the animation doesnt work
Please take a look at the image at the end of the loop Link
Actually Storm, if this storm could survive the treck into the Gulf, we may see some strenghtening. That is a big maybe, but a hurricane in the Gulf is not out of the question. You will get your CAT 5 soon Stormtop..lol
yes dauphine im predicting a cat 5 if this gets in the gulf...explosive development...look what happen to jose how fast it developed..if katrina heads in to the guls she will have plenty of timr to blow up and strengthen rapidly...yes dauphine i am predicting katrina to be a cat 5....it will hit southern fla as a cat 2 and continue to threaten the north central gulf coast...i hate to say it new orleans may be in its path and this would be a storm coming from the se ....
his llc is not the llc and the upper low is helping this sytem as noted by the nhc, shear estimates and all. the shear over the system is quite light . it is based on the upper high and the upper low causing the winds at the upper levvels to not be as bad as they should be if the upper low was there on its own
lefty if your wave becomes katrina if she does not go out to sea she will be a cat 5....katrina is detined to be a cat 5 one way or the other..i predicted to cat 5s this year katrina will be one...
The NHC will assist with their positioning. They have a better zoomed visible image loop available than we do...
if u clikc the link i provide it is alot closer image and of a longer time frame. you can see the circulation of the blob would not make that the llc. the llc is imbedded within that blob and when i get updated microwave imager i will be able to show u better
Navy site has added link to 99Invest (Same as remnants of TD10) but is over the LLC im am talking about.
im going to try to get some early info be back in 10 minutes...
its the same link as the 10lnoname, they need to chasnge it cause if u read the disclaimer at the top they can not remove the track map and need to fix it
here is a link to a very nice close up visual img. shows that your llc can not be that far north. its little south of where u said and is fully coverd by convection

Link
the next sat microwave pass should handle the debate though. and i ma not talking bout much farther south than what u said 79, but its more south and per the nhc, its in a low shear enviroment
This is pretty

Link
Newinfl.

Sorry that is an old projection. The powers that be dropped the "TD 10 ID" & are calling it NONAME.

We do NOT need this to come across Fl. into the GULF & ruin more lives!

Last year was Fl. This year is Mexico. I pray for those in Mexico as they got multiple hits in the same area already as well as those in the Panhandle & northern Gulf states!
nice link. was cool looking
and 79 i don't think it really matters cause the whole system is moving about due west and is starting to move onto the cuban shore so development at this point is limited till she either chnages course or moves into the gulf
Thanks RELNZ for the Penn State site. Looks clear
i have some pressures thats all no dam radar sites from cuba or the bahamas...

santo de cuba 29.88 inches

camaguey 29.85 inches nw 15

guantanamo bay 29.93 and falling...

high but not to high dunno
hills - thanks for the responce. I am in the panhandle and do not want another storm in this area, infrastructure cannot handle another one. just getting some of the property back together. if one comes into the gulf needs to go west of her (long way)
Lefty ( or anyone else), if you had to pinpoint a center, where would it be?

I'm thinking somewhere in the vicinity of 22.5 and 74.5
Stormtop IMHO this storm will not be a CAT 2 hitting Florida. At the most a TD or weak TS. Again it really needs to move away from Cuba for any real development to occur.
i agree lefty its got to go back on a more wnw heading but a new area of convection has fired up around the center...did anyone get any info for radars...
dunno rlenzlet get a cordinat for you
Look at hurricane79's stuff, that is where LLC is Rlenz.
thry this link to look at 10

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_cubabhms.html
21 or 20.5n and 75 west just south of 79's llc but imbedded in the convection
lefty your dam wave looks like katrina now...this thing is really winding up out there....lefty we need to turn it back towards the west..im afraid of that trough out there thats going to put your wave on a more nw then nnw course...not good lefty i think you beat me to the punch...
while 79's was close it was not the llc. in lonterm loops it could not be the center the winds and clouds are moving in the wrong direction for that to be the center so it has to be south of where he said. now i wish i had some microwave data but al sat have missed the storm so i can not say for sure where it is, just where it is not
newinfl

Best wishes are with you from Tampa Area.

We all need a continued rest or there will be no more Ins. companies who will serve Fl.

If it dives South into Cuba BEFORE the mountains it will rip itself apart. No that I wish any harm to those people!
Link for Cuban radar sites....Link
click whitewabits link, it shows that 79's cordinates could not be the center, its a 12 hr loop.

and stormt, my wave has a ways to go still wile looking better not there yet, and i would be rooting for your system but to close to cuba and the motion isn't helping
weatherguy you tell that to jose lol....the temps are running 88-94 i just checked a few ago...you need to realize if this gets over the gulf explosive developmeny for the northern gulf maybe new orleans...yes it could be a cat 2 when it hits fla we will have to see how cuba affects its strengthing....
Well Lefty its more likely that is it. The reason we are having a hard time finding the center is because this system is not developed well yet. At this point it is up to personal interpretation.
I think the llc is a little north of Cuba, definately not over land at this time.
that was my "personal iterpretation"
weatherguy we will have to wait the recon plane should be there by now we should be getting some info soon...i just hope we have katrina...leftys wave is looking very impressive to bad that dam trough is out there we need to pull leftys wave back towards the west...the other wave is for south then leftys but it has some moderate convection surrounding it...leftys wave will be katrina we will have to deal with general lee then my wave will be maria...
and weather guy i accpet that. i just looked at themovement of the clouds and whilei cannot say where it is, i can say where it is not and that is to far north. i am personally waiting for the microwave imagery that will pin point the center.

also it does not matter cause the whole system was moving tot he west and bring my or 79's llc ontoland
lefty

on this link what are the dark dots? cooler water or something else?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg
Just posted my forecast track for 10L and Invest 97L Link
it really looks like katrina is outta here...moving nw

*lets say our prays*
Stormtop, I have seen many times with systems that have been watched for a while and recon goes in, then it jumps to tropical storm strength....
no thats incomplete data meaning land or something else, most of this data is collected by sat and sometimes their orbits maynot overlap or somthing like that made it so there is incomplete data
This system will move fairly slow over the next 3 days...
Can I ask Lenny what he has against my nickname Lee?
yes 79 but that tarck is already wron cause for the short term the system ismoving w or just n of w and has been moving more onto cuba and will probly shurt cuba or cross cuba
Yes I think finally when recon gets in we will have center. It could jump to the north if all we know. When they are organizing sometimes we will see some jumps. Nice graphics hurricane79. I like your track on 10L. I think that 97L will move more NW. But we will see.
Hey lefty do you agree with anyone..lol..Or you like to disagree with everyone. Hurricane79 puts together these nice graphics for us, respect the man.
79 - are you predecting a fort lauderdale area land fall on the east coast? what are your predictions for the gulf?
i never said anything bad. all i did was point out my observations on

1. the center cannot be that far north
2. the short term motion is due west or just north of west and has been for the las 4 hrs


if u don't want to have the correct info than don't if u ntc in my posts more than 6 hrs ago i was calling for this system to be a ts by the end of the day. now with its motion and loss of convection i feel less like this could happen. now the system could turn nw or even n but in the short term it is heading into cuba. that is a fact
79's predicted land fall looks a little more north than Ft. Lauderdale, maybe West Palm beach.
hey guys the radar out of camaguey looks quite impressive...there is some strong banding to the south of the island and to the north you can clearly see a circulation in the radar the convection is heavy in spots and light in the other....strong banding is there so this might be ok if it just stays off of cuba..i agree with lefty though it looks like the center at 21.0n and 75.5w is moving more west....it should be away from the mountains in the next 12 hours..it just does not look like its going to be classified as katrina when the recon gets down there...
and cuba is shaped facing the nw so even if shes on a wnw track she would still be slamming into cuba. only a nw track would keep her off cuba
With that weakening fontal boundary over North Florida, the developing system should be drawn to the NW (Check out the NHC 11PM outlook which states a NW movement for now). The ridge over the SE US is fairly strong and will build back in somewhat and guide the system back to the West across FL into the Gulf. There are 2 scenarios in the Gulf. Some models over the past 24 hours (GFS, NAM, GEM) have stalled the system in the East Gulf in 3 days and turns it NE after 5 days into the FL panhandle. Other models take it Westward for some time across the Gulf. Its too early to tell what it will do in the Gulf, since it is moving so slow, it won't be in the Gulf until Friday (over 72 hours from now)
OK so you are telling me you are the ONLY ONE with the right info. Thats ridiculous. Alittle pompous aren't we. Oh well. Noone knows the right info right now. We are only giving our best estimates, so to keep saying everyone is wrong is just not right. Are you flying the plane int there right now?..lol
Lefty, its good to have a few good conflicting opiions, it keeps the blog interesting and allows room for error. There is no way in the world that my forecast and location is exactly right, otherwise there would be no point for discussions at all....either one of us could be correct...
Whitewabit
The dark spots are most likely missing data due to cloud cover.
i found this interesting the surface for cast for 72 hours is calling for a low in the gulf

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
they note a wnw or nw motion. currently it is moving w or maybe due north of west. stormt just checked this with radar. that motion in the SHORTTERM would bring the center real close to if not onland in the next few hours. she might be a depression but as of right now i am skepticle of a ts, just being realistic
79 - thanks for the responce. All of you guys/gals provide insight to newby's like me. don't want to be a pain to yal but since i'm here need to learn a little bout this. yal provide better info and more often that tv or radio. thanks again.
For once....and I emphasize......ONCE...I agree with Stormtop,,,this will skip TD stage and become Katrina.....and as far as Cat 5....thats possible but not probable....cat 3 or cat 4....lol
Anyway. High pressure is moving west from Florida. A weak trough will move down over the E.US by Wed-Fri. This would tend to nudge this system to the NW. But as stated by Stormy and Lefty, if it moves into Cuba all bets are off. It also may be too far south to be pulled NW. And may stay on a west heading being steered by High pressure to its north.
Cuba does not lay NW, more like WNW
NEW TPC Guidance is out on 10L:
Link
Its staying just offshore so far....and it looks as if it will stay offshore....
thanks 79 and i have no way said no one is wrong or does not have all the info. i said all i can due is state my info and if you notice my cordinates for the center is just slightly south of his meaning we read the data slightly diff and i know he can respect that and i never said the longterm track is anything. but right now the system is moving slowly w or wnw, this brings it really close to onsuhore no matter who's center u belive.

also i said i wanted to wait for the microwave data as it is really helpful in one thing, center location, so we should know alot in a few hours with a few sat passes and recon flight en route. understand that i am not going to agree with someone when i see something diff and in no way ever attacked him, all i did was post the links i have and show what i am seeing. remeebr we are all learning and the day u stop learning u are dieing and how do we learn thru our mistakes so if i am proven wrong so be it. life goes on
lefty the nhc has it moving on a path between wnw and nw and thats nots what its doing...it is moving due west right now...where do they get this crap from...no way this thing is moving like that....you can see radar it tells the story...lefty they havent upgraded your wave which is a sigh of relief...i still have a small shot if this crazy woman would move more towards the wnw...i think the upper level low thats s of haiti they think it might turn it more wnw or nw towards s fla then the gulf towards the la coast..this could be la worse nightmare they have been talking about for 40 years now....a storm a cat 5 coming in from the se moving nw...only time will tell ...lefty anything you found in your info that leads you to believe we will have watches go up sometime early in the morning for s fla...
The recon will tell the story.....just have to wait..
True Lefty, I would really like to see recon data.
actually cuba is a litlemore north than wnw and thats neither here nor there cause with its location if she heads wnw she will be moving onto land. if u get a long loop of the system u will see she has been moving slowly w for sometime now. thats why i said shortterm. i am just stating what i see thats all
STORMTOP, please send us the radar link.. Thanks
what do you have against Lee,which is my nickname. What Lenny.
New post by Jeff has coordinates at 22.5N 76W.
hey guys lefty is dead on the thing is moving towards the west and its over cuba thats whats keeping it from developing rapidly...i disagree with 79 it will be in the gulf before 72 hours....
79, the new TPC guidance you posted... some of the models suggest Td 10 might be a cat 1 hurricane in 72 hrs?
exactly, also nhc bases movement on a 3-6 hr period. it can wobale north or south but its that average motion. right now she is moving west, she could start moving north in 5 mins, i don't know. this is all caused by the weak sterring currents based on the slow movement of the system. when systems move slow they tend to move erraticly in genral. we know she will be moving to the west but how much of a northen component is the x factor


also i think 79 knows i respect his opinion and views as i know he respects mine. as he stated we will not move forward on this if we don't have disagreements cause we might see subtle things slightly diff. thanks everyone as this disscussion is awsome. everyone is contributing and links are flying all over the place and its respectfull dissagreement
79, the new TPC guidance you posted... some of the models suggest Td 10 might be a cat 1 hurricane in 72 hrs?

not one of the models has the storm located south of 25.3
79, the new TPC guidance you posted... some of the models suggest Td 10 might be a cat 1 hurricane in 72 hrs?

not one of the models has the storm located south of 25.3 in 72 hrs.
sorry, comp problems
New convection is now developing nearer to my proposed llc, just North of 22N between 74 and 76W Link
Click on 99Invest
Click satellite image a couple of times to enlarge
lol king i just wanted katrina to be the first cat 5 of the season...i predicted that katrina would be the cat 5..the gulf will give it explosive development just like it did jose...llok how fast jose developed close to land..imagine if jose would of taken a north path you would of have jose being a cat 5....the temps are sizzling in the gulf....
The TPC models are starting to pick up that weakness in the ridge. Some of theme build the ridge back in after 72 hours, others keep it weak.
lets move this to the new thread u guys
the 24 hr surface pressure map shows 10 just n of cuba and south of fl

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif
Looking at the zoomed visible satellite, it appears that thw low is elongated from SW to NE, but it appears the dominate area may be where the convection is forming near 22.4N, 75W. Gots to go to work, I'll be back on the Blog at 10:30 PM ET.
just heard on twc that recon is due to fly out of keesler around 5:00 this evening for td10.
damn that sucks 79 see u than man have fun at work
con is already in route
Jeff Masters has a new posting...see you all there later...
recon islaready in route and shuold be there in the next 2 -3 hrs
all pressures in cuba are lower then 29.90 inches...the winds are not strong 18mph tops...the convection is still strong in some spots and moderate in others..well the new fix i see according to radar at camaguey is now 20.8 n nad 76.0w ..it looks like a little south of due west lefty...i dont like that it will destroy the center...its being influenced by the trough south of cuba..it loks like its trying to grasp that trough..this could end up in the caribbean with a new center...i see at least 3 centers that could take the lead...
storm we are all in the new thread. but i feel ya now get out of thie thread and go to the new one
Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane, and PERFECT STORM, Retired, as well as Dennis, Stan, Wilma and Rita, and 2005 will go down as the most active season on record....
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane, and PERFECT STORM, Retired, as well as Dennis, Stan, Wilma and Rita, and 2005 will go down as the most active season on record....

That's what I predict ;)