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Unwelcome Rains Will Put Stress on Lake Okeechobee’s Dike

By: Jeff Masters 11:32 AM GMT on August 24, 2016

A steadily organizing Invest 99L was bringing heavy rains and strong wind gusts to the northern Lesser Antilles on Wednesday morning, and is an increasing threat to develop into a tropical storm. Even if 99L never develops into a tropical cyclone, it has the potential to dump a large amount of rain on a place that doesn’t need it—the catchment basin of Lake Okeechobee in Central Florida. The huge lake represents an important source of fresh water to South Florida, but also poses a grave danger. The 25 - 30'-tall, 143-mile long Herbert Hoover Dike surrounding the lake was built in the 1930s out of gravel, rock, limestone, sand, and shell using old engineering methods. The dike is tall enough that it is very unlikely to be overtopped by a storm surge from the waters inside the lake, but the dike is vulnerable to leaking and failure when heavy rains bring high water levels to the lake. Torrential rains of 7+ inches from a tropical storm or hurricane are capable of raising the lake level by over three feet in a few weeks; this occurred in 2008, when Tropical Storm Fay took a leisurely romp across Florida, and again in 2012, when Tropical Storm Isaac lumbered past. At a lake water elevation of 15.5’, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dumps water out of the lake as fast as it can in order to keep high stresses on the dike from causing a failure. The lake reached this level early in 2016, after unusually heavy winter rains. The Corps was forced to do emergency dumping for most of February, and dumping has continued into August—though at a slower rate.

Currently, the lake level stands at 14.7’; the Wednesday morning Quantitative Precipitation Forecast from the National Weather Service predicted that the Lake Okeechobee region would receive 3 - 6” of rain over the next week, which would likely be enough to raise the lake level by 1 - 2 feet and bring it near the 15.5’ level where maximum dumping must occur. If 99L develops into a hurricane whose core passes over Lake Ockeechobee, the lake could easily received 10 - 15” of rain, enough to raise the lake level to near the 18.5’ level, where failure is possible. Under ideal conditions, the Army Corps can only lower the lake at a rate of about 0.4" per day, so they will have to do a lot of emergency dumping if 99L brings heavy rains to Florida. And 99L may only be setting the stage for the next storm—Florida often experiences multiple tropical storms or hurricanes in one year, and a wet storm later in September could really cause a serious situation with the dike.


Figure 1. Water level of Florida's Lake Okeechobee between January 2015 and August 23, 2016. Heavy winter El Niño rains forced emergency dumping in February, and dumping at a slower rate has continued all year. The Army Corps tries to keep the lake level below 15.5'; the dike surrounding the lake is in danger of failure when the lake level hits 18.5'. As of August 23, 2016, the lake level was 14.7’. Lake Okeechobee reached an elevation of 18.6' and 18.5'--both 1-in-30-year events--in 1995 and 1998. Image credit: U.S> Army Corps of Engineers.

Probable failure rate: once every 14 years
The Army Corps of Engineers has spent $500 million since 2007 to upgrade to the Herbert Hoover Dike. Replacement of 32 culverts has been partially completed, and has been funded through 2021. However, an additional $800 million in unfunded repairs is needed. A 2011 risk assessment estimated the dike's probable failure rate at every fourteen years. A 2008 Army Corps of Engineers study said this about the vulnerable dike:

"There is limited potential for a dike failure with lake levels as low as 18.5 feet. The likelihood of a failure increases at higher lake levels. At a lake level of 21 feet--a 1-in-100 year flood event--a dike failure would be likely at one or more locations. In the event of a dike failure, waters from Lake Okeechobee would pass through the breach--uncontrollably--and flood adjacent land. Flooding would be severe and warning time would be limited. And with 40,000 people living in the communities protected by the Herbert Hoover Dike, the potential for human suffering and loss of life is significant. Our engineering studies indicate the southern and eastern portions of the dike system are more likely to fail than the northern and western portions of the dike. In general, we would expect a warning time of 24 to 48 hours prior to a dike failure that releases water from the lake; however, under some conditions the warning time might be longer, and under others, a dike failure could occur with no warning."

The city most at risk from a dike failure may be Belle Glade (population 18,000) on the southeast shore. Belle Glade is at 16' elevation. If Lake Okeechobee is at 20' above mean sea level when the dike fails, this implies that at least three feet of water could flood Belle Glade. If a wide section of the dike breaks and there is a Cat 3+ hurricane driving a massive storm surge at the time, then the flood could be much higher. During the 1928 hurricane, which had 130 mph winds while over the lake, the water from the storm surge reached seven feet above ground level in Belle Glade.


Figure 2. Aftermath of the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, showing damage to a cluster of Everglades scientific work stations in Belle Glade. The hurricane killed 2,500 people, mostly near Belle Glade. Image credit: University of Florida, via the historicpalmbeach.com.

The Great 1928 Lake Okeechobee Hurricane
The shores of Lake Okeechobee are the site of the second deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history--the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane. This mighty hurricane caused catastrophic damage where it struck the Florida coast as a Category 4 storm near Palm Beach, and weakened only slightly to Category 3 strength with 130 mph winds when it passed over Lake Okeechobee. The powerful winds of the hurricane brought a 12' storm surge to the south end of the lake, which overwhelmed the 6' high levees protecting the farm lands to the south. The resulting flood covered an area of hundreds of square miles with water up to 20' deep, and killed at least 2,500 people--mostly black migrant farm workers. A mass grave at the Port Mayaca Cemetery east of Port Mayaca contains the bodies of 1,600 victims of the hurricane. The Herbert Hoover Dike was built in the 1930s around most of Lake Okeechobee in response to this disaster.
 

Figure 3. Tom Wippick, from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, takes a sample for testing of the awful smelling algae near the Central Marine boat dock along the St. Lucie River on July 11, 2016 in Stuart, Florida. The algae bloom, due to polluted water from Lake Okeechobee, created angry communities, closed beaches and has had an economic impact as tourists and others are driven away by the smell and inability to enjoy some of the waterways. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images.)

Lake Okeechobee runoff contributing to toxic algae blooms
In May, a 33-square-mile algal bloom blossomed over Lake Okeechobee, due to heavy agricultural pollution. The Corps has been dumping water out of the lake all year to keep the lake below 15.5’, and most of this excess water was sent out Lake Okeechobee's western drainage canal into the Caloosahtchee Estuary, which empties into the Gulf of Mexico at Fort Myers. A lesser amount of Lake Okeechobee water has been sent eastwards into the St. Lucie River, where it drains into the Atlantic Ocean near Stuart through the Indian River Lagoon. A similar level of discharge goes down the C-51 canal in into the estuary by West Palm Beach, the Lake Worth Lagoon. The polluted Lake Okeechobee water, combined with large amounts of polluted local runoff water from heavy rains, has caused havoc in these coastal waters this summer, shutting down businesses and closing beaches during the critical summer tourism season. A state of emergency was declared last month in the coastal counties of St. Lucie, Martin and Palm Beach because of  algae blooms caused by the polluted Lake Okeechobee water.

We'll have a full update on 99L late this morning (as well as on Tropical Storm Gaston).

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

99L is only limping for now.....the potential for it to be a beast.....is ahead of it.
Quoting 466. stormwatcherCI:

Don't jump the gun. If they do not find a closed low it is still just an invest.

I think it is sort of likely
Quoting 484. serialteg:

so we're still on the naked swirl epoch...
it's been a while now
i miss those seasons where we could actually track decent hurricanes lol




Here you go. I present, Gaston. Happy tracking. A bit of an eyewall looking apparent.



Back to naked swirl...
All this needs is a closed low and we would have Hermine.50mph winds already? That's how we know hat the GFS shows is already flawed.
Meanwhile half a world away... Big Problems on the horizon for Japan.

Lionrock starting to clear out his eye. He is going to transverse over waters that he has already threshed upon, don't know how much that will keep him in check. His windfield diameter is forecast to increase 2 to 3 fold by the time it makes its way up to near Japan.

Currently at 100 knots, forecast peak at 115 knots. 105 knots just offshore of Japan.





max winds found by RECON 57MPH
Quoting 449. chrisdscane:

Link

Great article here about 99L's future from professional meteorologist and hurricane expert DR. MICHAEL VENTRICE





Seems like this gentleman is very knowledgeable. Not good news for Louisiana.
Quoting 492. pensacolastorm:

Anyone know when the ECMWF will update?


2pm is the next run of the European model
GASTON getting a NE eyewall
Quoting 506. wunderkidcayman:

max winds found by RECON 57MPH


Pressures still seem high to me.

Quoting 504. washingtonian115:

All this needs is a closed low and we would have Hermine.50mph winds already? That's how we know hat the GFS shows is already flawed.


Lol just throw it out
Quoting 505. ILwthrfan:

Meanwhile half a world away... Big Problems on the horizon for Japan.



Lionrock starting to clear out his eye. He is going to transverse over waters that he has already threshed upon, don't know how much that will keep him in check. His windfield diameter is forecast to increase 2 to 3 fold by the time it makes it way up to near Japan.

Currently at 100 knots, forecast peak at 115 knots. 105 knots just offshore of Japan.








Okinawa is to the left,with approx 100,000 Americans stationed there
513. 7544
Quoting 506. wunderkidcayman:

max winds found by RECON 57MPH


hmmmm u may be right they could call this ?
Just got done with a little thunder and rain here in Miami.

Getting some rain here now ...

Somehow I don't think there'll be a problem for 99L in therms of finding moist air here .....
Quoting 506. wunderkidcayman:

max winds found by RECON 57MPH

So wouldnt a stronger system pull more northward?
Quoting 492. pensacolastorm:

Anyone know when the ECMWF will update?
Roughly around quarter to 2PM EDT. is when it starts initializing.
Quoting 435. bocahurricane:

i don't know what is worse the hurricane or my mother coming to stay with me. Lol


Very true.
Ah before I forget. I have a question that has been bugging me for quite some time which I hope one of the more knowledgeable posters here can answer. How can MLC convection sustain itself without being coupled with the LLC as we saw in the early stages of 2012 Ernesto and 2015 Earl? Condensation of mid level water vapor?
Quoting 507. JohnWelchLandArch:



Seems like this gentleman is very knowledgeable. Not good news for Louisiana.




We have seen this dance before many times.

Its all over the media here as we are knee capped. Baton Rouge is closed.....as a normal evac area.

Folks are closely watching.

17.44.20N 64.41.48W St. Croix - Heavy rain, current rate 2.25" per hour, light wind out of the WNW.
Quoting 489. Grothar:




Dangerous path with those warm waters then of course just as bad in the gulf. I hope this will not be a bad one.
Well this is odd. Winds are 45-50kts apparently, but they haven't investigated the circulation yet.

Satellite presenation is evidently lacking, but the winds are impressive.
Quoting 500. Patrap:



Our path together began in 84' with NATO in Norway.

Let's not allow this path to come to fruition Gro.




If you love me, you'll let me chase this weekend. :)

j/k

<3 you too, Pat.
Quoting 25. hydrus:


Quoting 485. bocahurricane:

So sorry to hear that. My office in West Palm had the roof collapse after Wilma and we had to relocate. It was a landmark too. The Carefree Theater which is still empty till this day


Boca: Carefree was just bought by a big investor and they have some lofty plans for that historic building. Actually all the buildings in that area have been bought up and are undergoing renovations as we speak.
Quoting 287. IDTH:



Look at how anomalously warm the water is right off the east coast.


Puffin chicks in Gulf of Maine’s largest colony starve to death at record rate
A drop in the food supply this summer, possibly tied to warmer Gulf of Maine waters, leads to the worst survival rate ever tracked on Machias Seal Island.

Usually, researchers are able to put identification bands on the chicks in late July or early August, before they leave their burrows. “But we couldn’t this year because the chicks’ legs were too small to hold a band,” Diamond said. “We have never seen fledgling weights like this before.”
Quoting 490. MeJoJo:

St Martin weather is looking pretty wild right now -

Link
Link


Thanks for the link: wind driven rain atm.
Quoting 497. aquak9:

( I have a tummy-ache )
Have a nice Canada Dry Ginger Ale. Hope, you feel better. I know what would do the trick 99L dissipates. :)
12z GFS INT

Quoting 490. MeJoJo:

St Martin weather is looking pretty wild right now -

Link
Link


If camera #2 is facing N there is your confirmation of west winds. I am unaware however
Quoting 516. TreasureCoastFl:


So wouldnt a stronger system pull more northward?


Convection, not winds.
Even if it has a closed circulation, I'm not sure the convective pattern qualifies as a "tropical cyclone".

I'd go 80%/90% at 2p.m., personally.
Quoting 520. Patrap:




We have as n this rasrasnce before many tomes.

Its all over the media here as we are knee capped. Baton Rouge is closed.....as a normal evac area.

Folks are closely watching.



Yeah the people over in Baton Rouge really really do not need this right now.
Quoting 523. MiamiHurricanes09:

Well this is odd. Winds are 45-50kts apparently, but they haven't investigated the circulation yet.

Satellite presenation is evidently lacking, but the winds are impressive.
When they taken off, they were at the center dude.
12Z GFS Coming out now
Neil Young jus came on direct TV channel 840
Like a hurricane.


Jeebus,rea!my?
538. bwi
Winds 45 knots from SSE at 700 feet above sea level. 18.5n 63.`1w
Could the Islands cut the 2 pieces of this storm in half?....................................
The 12Z GFS is starting its run. Are we going to be entertained again?
Quoting 502. Icybubba:


I think it is sort of likely
Not necessarily. When Dolly was an invest in the eastern Caribbean she had ts force winds. She traversed the entire Caribbean as an invest until reaching just to the sw of Grand Cayman before a closed low was found which is where she was declared TS Dolly.
Quoting 533. MiamiHurricanes09:

Even if it has a closed circulation, I'm not sure the convective pattern qualifies as a "tropical cyclone".

I'd go 80%/90% at 2p.m., personally.
If Colin cam get classified, this can
Quoting 490. MeJoJo:

St Martin weather is looking pretty wild right now -

Link
Link


Captain morgan is missing from that shot. I hope they took him in. ooh, look, some idiot swimming. Paging Darwin...
Quoting 518. NativeSun:

Very true.

Payback for those teen years she put up with.

.......I wanna love ya but I'm getting blown away
Quoting 523. MiamiHurricanes09:

Well this is odd. Winds are 45-50kts apparently, but they haven't investigated the circulation yet.

Satellite presenation is evidently lacking, but the winds are impressive.


The deep convection has been warming quickly and still continues Westward while the "center", which has not yet been determined by the aircraft, is noted as heading off to the WNW. The HH just turned to do a SW leg of the run so we shall soon know what the state of play is.
Quoting 535. HurricaneAndre:

When they taken off, they were at the center dude.
Well I'd like them to actually investigate it instead of just some faulty readings as they ascended.
I hope they don't knock it down. I worked for Famtasma which was a concert promoter who owned the building for many years. Great memories there.

Quoting 526. jonelu:

Boca: Carefree was just bought by a big investor and they have some lofty plans for that historic building. Actually all the buildings in that area have been bought up and are undergoing renovations as we speak.
549. ackee
99L 50mph invest tropical storm winds interesting to see what NHC will do
Pretty significant band of shear to traverse. Pot O Gold on the other side however.

Check out Bryan Norcross' new blog: Getting Ready to Get Ready

Unfortunate that some self-righteous blogger had to say that in the comment section.... Hope someone can stand up to him...
just like the model said a week ago right up biscayne bay blvd.
Quoting 435. bocahurricane:

i don't know what is worse the hurricane or my mother coming to stay with me. Lol


not trying to be ugly...but you jumped Kori for his chasing canes comment....said he should be more thoughtful....I can say the same to you....you see...I would LOVE to be able to rescue my mom from impending doom...but I cannot...you see, she died...so, as sensitive as you say others should be before they speak....remember...words once spoken cannot be taken back.... (I did not take your comment personally directed at me...but wanted to point out that the road isn't just one way)
It's starting to get that nice, upper level look to it. Conditions seem to be lining up for development now.

Quoting 509. SFLWeatherman:

GASTON getting a NE eyewall



What a beauty its becoming and how about it being a classic developing Hurricane in the MDR, something we haven't seen much of.
557. ackee
Quoting 542. HurricaneAndre:

If Colin cam get classified, this can
so true
558. Ed22
Quoting 525. Barefootontherocks:


The Low Level Circulation could very well be under the deep convection moving slightly Northward.
I would love to get some center fixes on 99L
Quoting 539. LargoFl:

Could the Islands cut the 2 pieces of this storm in half?....................................


Interesting you say that. I mentioned that possibility last night in an exchange with Nash.
AF308 Mission #O2 into INVEST
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

As of 15:22 UTC Aug 24, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 17.88°N 62.68°W
Bearing: 225° at 166 kt
Altitude: 229 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 27 kt at 149°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1014.3 mb





Last 10 min of obs



Quoting 546. kmanislander:



The deep convection has been warming quickly and still continues Westward while the "center", which has not yet been determined by the aircraft, is noted as heading off to the WNW. The HH just turned to do a SW leg of the run so we shall soon know what the state of play is.
Yeah I'd like to see what's going on under the convection. If it wants to ramp up it needs to start firing convection over the supposed LLC.
Quoting 549. ackee:

99L 50mph invest tropical storm winds interesting to see what NHC will do


Not even done yet they have not even done any center fixes yet
Quoting 539. LargoFl:

Could the Islands cut the 2 pieces of this storm in half?....................................
It could, I have always wundered if pigs can fly? On a much serious note, 99L looks disorganized with the exposed LLC racing off to the NW away from the main convection. I would expect that convection to die down and new convection to form around the LLC. Not anticipating much strengthening from this until it passes by Hispaniola.
That payback has come in the form of my 8 year old daughter! (Just a joke! She is the love of my life along with my son! They are true blessings)

Quoting 544. SunnyDaysFla:


Payback for those teen years she put up with.


I swear it looks like plane P-3B is headed to 99L..... could be doing something else but dang if it isn't headed right at it
Quoting 554. tiggeriffic:

Quoting 435. bocahurricane:

i don't know what is worse the hurricane or my mother coming to stay with me. Lol


not trying to be ugly...but you jumped Kori for his chasing canes comment....said he should be more thoughtful....I can say the same to you....you see...I would LOVE to be able to rescue my mom from impending doom...but I cannot...you see, she died...so, as sensitive as you say others should be before they speak....remember...words once spoken cannot be taken back.... (I did not take your comment personally directed at me...but wanted to point out that the road isn't just one way)


LOL owned
Tropical storm winds are found
If this racing coc is the heartbeat,

How She navigates the next 48hours is gonna make all the difference downstream.

If it rides along the backside of the islands like at 280-285 .....


Sheesh all around.



Satellite and recon will convince me that we have Tropical Storm Hermine and they will call her shortly. Pressures are still high from what I am reading, maybe about 1010mb, but maybe the environmental pressure is a bit high as well which can compensate things. Also I see a closed surface circulation on satellite imagery about 50-100 miles east of Puerto Rico moving WNWward, if this surface low stays intact then we can have high rates of intensification down the road, I personally would rather have a Surface circulation present than a mid level circulation to regenerate thunderstorms. It is easier to grow upwards with convection than downwards in my opinion.
Invest 99L is really pathetic right now. It is more disorganized than several hours ago. I don expect it to organize any more before reaching (or approaching) PR. In my opinion the short range odds for development should be diminished below 10 %.
I hate to bring bad news but 99l will remain decoupled for atleast 24 more hours you can clearly see the displacement between the 500mb vort

And the 850mb (closer to surface) vort


Notice how the 850 is running out ahead of it, I think 99L will look very much tomorrow the way she does today.
Good morning

Back for another "look see". You can see the rain moving in, from the top camera over to the bottom camera:

Link

-L
Pallet of Pepto-Bismal?

Amazon Prime, baby!!
My apologies Tiggeriffic if I offended you. I was making a joke (hence the lol) obviously I would have my mom with open arms and I would probably bring my 90 year grandma here from her assisted living as well. I love my family I was just making a joke to lighten the mood.

Quoting 554. tiggeriffic:

Quoting 435. bocahurricane:

i don't know what is worse the hurricane or my mother coming to stay with me. Lol


not trying to be ugly...but you jumped Kori for his chasing canes comment....said he should be more thoughtful....I can say the same to you....you see...I would LOVE to be able to rescue my mom from impending doom...but I cannot...you see, she died...so, as sensitive as you say others should be before they speak....remember...words once spoken cannot be taken back.... (I did not take your comment personally directed at me...but wanted to point out that the road isn't just one way)
Its moving a lot of atmosphere.


577. A4Guy
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1135 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on
tropical wave in the Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

Updated: An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft currently
investigating the broad low pressure area and tropical wave near
the northern Leeward Islands has found winds to tropical storm force
in a few squalls near the northernmost Leeward Islands. Squalls to
tropical storm force can be expected over the extreme northern
Leeward Islands and portions of the northern U.S. and British Virgin
Islands this afternoon. The reconnaissance aircraft mission is
ongoing to determine whether or not a tropical cyclone has formed.

Although environmental conditions are currently only marginally
conducive for additional development, this system could become a
tropical depression or tropical storm at any time during the next
few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph across
the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
and the Bahamas. Strong winds, heavy rains, and possible flash
floods and mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the
Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and
central Bahamas. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices for further details. Interests in the
northwestern Bahamas and Florida should also monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown
I just hope this doesn't end up hitting Louisiana after all the problems they had with the rains.
Quoting 489. Grothar:



Interested to see what the next model runs show...
Quoting 574. aquak9:

Pallet of Pepto-Bismal?

Amazon Prime, baby!!


tums smoothies ATW.....taste better and no liquid to spill roflmbo....
heavy rain on st.thomas right now


The euro shows it making landfall in western louisiana.
Its that time for action in S Florida.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should also monitor the progress
of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown


Showtime

Quoting 572. chrisdscane:

I hate to bring bad news but 99l will remain decoupled for atleast 24 more hours you can clearly see the displacement between the 500mb vort

And the 850mb (closer to surface) vort


Notice how the 850 is running out ahead of it, I think 99L will look very much tomorrow the way she does today.
sounds like a "fizzle" is upcoming in the next few days.
This is as big as it gets btw the EURO vs GFS folks neither side wants to budge on the prediction, as consistent the EURO has been this latest GFS streak of no development is just as impressive
99L would be hard to develop right now with 30mph wind shear on top of it. This is only a delay.
Quoting 561. Patrap:

AF308 Mission #O2 into INVEST
Type: Unknown | Status: In Progress

As of 15:22 UTC Aug 24, 2016:
Aircraft Position: 17.88°N 62.68°W
Bearing: 225° at 166 kt
Altitude: 229 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 27 kt at 149°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1014.3 mb





Last 10 min of obs





This system appears very sick at this moment. Too much shear at the NW quadrant. Also, convection in steady decrease, and overall shape like a common tropical wave. I don't expect much of an impact over PR if any.
If the surface circulation is as vigorous as it is will not find much problem reorganizing near the Bahamas once if has cleared the band of heavy wind shear. Edit: MLC has become progressively weaker.
GFS definitely being consistent...

Consistently awful.
Quoting 575. bocahurricane:

My apologies Tiggeriffic if I offended you. I was making a joke (hence the lol) obviously I would have my mom with open arms and I would probably bring my 90 year grandma here from her assisted living as well. I love my family I was just making a joke to lighten the mood.




like I said...you did NOT personally offend me...Just saying... you were sensitive to a random comment... others could have taken yours the wrong way just the same.....
17.44.19N 64.4149W 600ft. ASL - Barometer 29.86 & steady. Moderate rainfall (.55 per hour) total rainfall accumulation .92". Light wind now WSW.


99L appears to be moving just north of due west. It may go south of the islands and then try to move northward going over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba which would rip it apart.
Quoting 582. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:



The euro shows it making landfall in western louisiana.

What catorgy is 954?


Very sharp wave axis, doubt they'll find west winds.
Quoting 572. chrisdscane:

I hate to bring bad news but 99l will remain decoupled for atleast 24 more hours you can clearly see the displacement between the 500mb vort

And the 850mb (closer to surface) vort


Notice how the 850 is running out ahead of it, I think 99L will look very much tomorrow the way she does today.
you want to know my opinion? I think you will look the same tomorrow as you do today, BRING ON WINTER!!!!!!!
Quoting 569. Patrap:

If this racing coc is the heartbeat,

How She navigates the next 48hours is gonna make all the difference downstream.

If it rides along the backside of the islands like at 280-285 .....


Sheesh all around.






i will try to quote this, and affirm that heading looks to be DOOM for others downstream
Hurricane Preparation 2016

It's time to dust off that family disaster plan, or in many cases, create one.

Keeping your family safe during a hurricane starts with proper planning. One in six Americans live along the eastern seaboard or the Gulf of Mexico, making hurricane preparation a must for many and their families.






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Evacuation Considerations for the Elderly, Disabled and Special Medical Care Issues



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Disaster Supplies Kit




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NOAA Alert Weather Radio's


"Think outside the Cone"
hurricanebuddy.com





History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster.

5


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Hurricane hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding. This means it is important for your family to have a plan that includes all of these hazards. Look carefully at the safety actions associated with each type of hurricane hazard and prepare your family disaster plan accordingly. But remember this is only a guide. The first and most important thing anyone should do when facing a hurricane threat is to use common sense.



You should be able to answer the following questions before a hurricane threatens:

*
What are the Hurricane Hazards?
*
What does it mean to you?
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What actions should you take to be prepared?

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* If your well has been flooded, it needs to be tested and disinfected after the storm passes and the floodwaters recede. Questions about testing should be directed to your local or state health department.

Water Safety

* Use bottled water that has not been exposed to flood waters if it is available.
* If you don't have bottled water, you should boil water to make it safe. Boiling water will kill most types of disease-causing organisms that may be present. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for boiling. Boil the water for one minute, let it cool, and store it in clean containers with covers.
* If you can't boil water, you can disinfect it using household bleach. Bleach will kill some, but not all, types of disease-causing organisms that may be in the water. If the water is cloudy, filter it through clean cloths or allow it to settle, and draw off the clear water for disinfection. Add 1/8 teaspoon (or 8 drops) of regular, unscented, liquid household bleach for each gallon of water, stir it well and let it stand for 30 minutes before you use it. Store disinfected water in clean containers with covers.
* If you have a well that has been flooded, the water should be tested and disinfected after flood waters recede. If you suspect that your well may be contaminated, contact your local or state health department or agriculture extension agent for specific advice.

Food Safety



* Do not eat any food that may have come into contact with flood water.

* Discard any food that is not in a waterproof container if there is any chance that it has come into contact with flood water. Food containers that are not waterproof include those with screw-caps, snap lids, pull tops, and crimped caps. Also, discard cardboard juice/milk/baby formula boxes and home canned foods if they have come in contact with flood water, because they cannot be effectively cleaned and sanitized.

* Inspect canned foods and discard any food in damaged cans. Can damage is shown by swelling; leakage; punctures; holes; fractures; extensive deep rusting; or crushing/denting severe enough to prevent normal stacking or opening with a manual, wheel-type can opener.

* Undamaged, commercially prepared foods in all-metal cans and retort pouches (for example, flexible, shelf-stable juice or seafood pouches) can be saved if you do the following:
o Remove the labels, if they are the removable kind, since they can harbor dirt and bacteria.
o Thoroughly wash the cans or retort pouches with soap and water, using hot water if it is available.
o Brush or wipe away any dirt or silt.
o Rinse the cans or retort pouches with water that is safe for drinking, if available, since dirt or residual soap will reduce the effectiveness of chlorine sanitation.
o Then, sanitize them by immersion in one of the two following ways:
+ place in water and allow the water to come to a boil and continue boiling for 2 minutes, or
+ place in a freshly-made solution consisting of 1 tablespoon of unscented liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available) for 15 minutes.

* Air dry cans or retort pouches for a minimum of 1 hour before opening or storing.

* If the labels were removable, then re-label your cans or retort pouches, including the expiration date (if available), with a marker.

* Food in reconditioned cans or retort pouches should be used as soon as possible, thereafter.

* Any concentrated baby formula in reconditioned, all-metal containers must be diluted with clean, drinking water.

* Thoroughly wash metal pans, ceramic dishes, and utensils (including can openers) with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize them by boiling in clean water or immersing them for 15 minutes in a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available).

* Thoroughly wash countertops with soap and water, using hot water if available. Rinse, and then sanitize by applying a solution of 1 tablespoon of unscented, liquid chlorine bleach per gallon of drinking water (or the cleanest, clearest water available). Allow to air dry.

Frozen and Refrigerated Foods

* If you will be without power for a long period:
o ask friends to store your frozen foods in their freezers if they have electricity;
o see if freezer space is available in a store, church, school, or commercial freezer that has electrical service; or
o use dry ice, if available. Twenty-five pounds of dry ice will keep a ten-cubic-foot freezer below freezing for 3-4 days. Use care when handling dry ice, and wear dry, heavy gloves to avoid injury.
* Your refrigerator will keep foods cool for about four hours without power if it is unopened. Add block or dry ice to your refrigerator if the electricity will be off longer than four hours.
* Thawed food can usually be eaten if it is still "refrigerator cold," or re-frozen if it still contains ice crystals.
* To be safe, remember, "When in doubt, throw it out." Discard any food that has been at room temperature for two hours or more, and any food that has an unusual odor, color, or texture.


Sanitation and Hygiene



It is critical for you to remember to practice basic hygiene during the emergency period. Always wash your hands with soap and water that has been boiled or disinfected:

* before preparing or eating
* after toilet use
* after participating in cleanup activities; and
* after handling articles contaminated with floodwater or sewage.

If there is flooding along with a hurricane, the waters may contain fecal material from overflowing sewage systems and agricultural and industrial waste. Although skin contact with floodwater does not, by itself, pose a serious health risk, there is risk of disease from eating or drinking anything contaminated with floodwater.

If you have any open cuts or sores that will be exposed to floodwater, keep them as clean as possible by washing them with soap and applying an antibiotic ointment to discourage infection. If a wound develops redness, swelling, or drainage, seek immediate medical attention.

Do not allow children to play in floodwater areas. Wash children's hands frequently (always before meals), and do not allow children to play with floodwater-contaminated toys that have not been disinfected. You can disinfect toys using a solution of one cup of bleach in five gallons of water.

Immunizations



Outbreaks of communicable diseases after hurricanes are unusual. However, the rates of diseases that were present before a hurricane may increase because of a lack of sanitation or overcrowding in shelters. Increases in infectious diseases that were not present before the hurricane are not a problem, so mass vaccination programs are unnecessary.

If you have wounds, you should be evaluated for a tetanus immunization, just as you would at any other time of injury. If you receive a puncture wound or a wound contaminated with feces, soil, or saliva, have a doctor or health department determine whether a tetanus booster is necessary based on individual records.

Specific recommendations for vaccinations should be made on a case-by-case basis, or as determined by local and state health departments.

Mosquitoes



Rain and flooding in a hurricane area may lead to an increase in mosquitoes. Mosquitoes are most active at sunrise and sunset. In most cases, the mosquitoes will be pests but will not carry communicable diseases. It is unlikely that diseases which were not present in the area prior to the hurricane would be of concern. Local, state, and federal public health authorities will be actively working to control the spread of any mosquito-borne diseases.

To protect yourself from mosquitoes, use screens on dwellings, and wear clothes with long sleeves and long pants. Insect repellents that contain DEET are very effective. Be sure to read all instructions before using DEET. Care must be taken when using DEET on small children. Products containing DEET are available from stores and through local and state health departments.

To control mosquito populations, drain all standing water left in open containers outside your home.

Mental Health



The days and weeks after a hurricane are going to be rough. In addition to your physical health, you need to take some time to consider your mental health as well. Remember that some sleeplessness, anxiety, anger, hyperactivity, mild depression, or lethargy are normal, and may go away with time. If you feel any of these symptoms acutely, seek counseling. Remember that children need extra care and attention before, during, and after the storm. Be sure to locate a favorite toy or game for your child before the storm arrives to help maintain his/her sense of security. Your state and local health departments will help you find the local resources, including hospitals or health care providers, that you may need.

Seeking Assistance after a Hurricane



SEEKING DISASTER ASSISTANCE: Throughout the recovery period, it is important to monitor local radio or television reports and other media sources for information about where to get emergency housing, food, first aid, clothing, and financial assistance. The following section provides general information about the kinds of assistance that may be available.

DIRECT ASSISTANCE: Direct assistance to individuals and families may come from any number of organizations, including: the American Red Cross, the Salvation Army, and other volunteer organizations. These organizations provide food, shelter, supplies and assist in clean-up efforts.

THE FEDERAL ROLE: In the most severe disasters, the federal government is also called in to help individuals and families with temporary housing, counseling (for post-disaster trauma), low-interest loans and grants, and other assistance. The federal government also has programs that help small businesses and farmers.

Most federal assistance becomes available when the President of the United States declares a Major Disaster for the affected area at the request of a state governor. FEMA will provide information through the media and community outreach about federal assistance and how to apply.

Coping after a Hurricane Everyone who sees or experiences a hurricane is affected by it in some way. It is normal to feel anxious about your own safety and that of your family and close friends. Profound sadness, grief, and anger are normal reactions to an abnormal event. Acknowledging your feelings helps you recover. Focusing on your strengths and abilities helps you heal. Accepting help from community programs and resources is healthy. Everyone has different needs and different ways of coping. It is common to want to strike back at people who have caused great pain. Children and older adults are of special concern in the aftermath of disasters. Even individuals who experience a disaster �second hand� through exposure to extensive media coverage can be affected.
Quoting 582. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:



The euro shows it making landfall in western louisiana.


Yep in Lake Charles, LA
I'm having flashbacks to this:

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. CURIOUSLY...THE GFS HAS FAILED
TO PREDICT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE THUS FAR.

First advisory on Gustav 8 years ago. See the part about the GFS? Maybe we'll have that again here?


GFS showing a TUTT over N Florida with a possible ULL working its way down. If 99L gets close it'll be sheared to death.
Quoting 570. TheDawnAwakening:

Satellite and recon will convince me that we have Tropical Storm Hermine and they will call her shortly. Pressures are still high from what I am reading, maybe about 1010mb, but maybe the environmental pressure is a bit high as well which can compensate things. Also I see a closed surface circulation on satellite imagery about 50-100 miles east of Puerto Rico moving WNWward, if this surface low stays intact then we can have high rates of intensification down the road, I personally would rather have a Surface circulation present than a mid level circulation to regenerate thunderstorms. It is easier to grow upwards with convection than downwards in my opinion.


Looks like that swirl is starting to pop some convection in it's SE corner. As the MLC convection dies down some more, we could see a shift in convection towards the LLC. One thing about 99L over the last two days and night is that it has progressively became more organized than the night before. I'd imagine tonight in and around Puerto Rico should be highly interesting.
GFS through 60 hours still not impressed. Elongated vorticity and weak

Model consensus has been strong with this. South FL then the Gulf unless something drastic happens. What is really getting uneasy is the fact that the models cannot agree on intensity. I know this is common, but after the J storm last year, I am over here refreshing the blog every 2 minutes!
? 99L is almost north of PR
Quoting 592. HurriHistory:



99L appears to be moving just north of due west. It may go south of the islands and then try to move northward going over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba which would rip it apart.
Quoting 499. 62901IL:

Eye see you!!!!

Beautiful! Seems like it's been forever since seeing one of these in the Atlantic...
606. Siker
Huge difference in just 24 hours on GFS vs. Euro. The GFS insists that the system will be badly decoupled with 500mb vorticity well to the east of the low level vorticity, while the Euro says the low level vorticity will dominate and potentially generate a new mid-upper level center.
In other news...
Quoting 593. SELAliveforthetropic:


What catorgy is 954?


Rita track
Quoting 592. HurriHistory:



99L appears to be moving just north of due west. It may go south of the islands and then try to move northward going over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba which would rip it apart.
Center is moving wnw should pass north of PR.
Pretty confident that the remnant MLC will die off this afternoon and the LLC will struggle to generate convection in the face of significant subsidence as well as shear.

The HWRF may not be far off, in that 99L will remain a skeleton for the next 3-4 days.


Erika number 2, here we go again. Might we be saying 99L R.I.P. ???? 99L needs some medical attention and fast.
Mine was a joke which completely different than wanting a hurricane to hit so he can chase. Obviously you can't tell the difference and are just looking to start an argument with me. Focus on the weather. Peace, love and light

Quoting 590. tiggeriffic:



like I said...you did NOT personally offend me...Just saying... you were sensitive to a random comment... others could have taken yours the wrong way just the same.....
613. wpb
15:42:30Z 17.900N 63.717W 991.9 mb
(~ 29.29 inHg) 154 meters
(~ 505 feet) 1009.6 mb
(~ 29.82 inHg) - From 169° at 43 knots
(From the SSE/S at ~ 49.5 mph) 21.8°C
(~ 71.2°F) 18.0°C
(~ 64.4°F) 45 knots
(~ 51.8 mph) 43 knots
(~ 49.5 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0.00 in/hr) 41.1 knots (~ 47.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 95.
Quoting 582. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:



The euro shows it making landfall in western louisiana.

Euro nailed the tracks of Sandy and Joaquin at the long range, que no?
Quoting 600. SavannahStorm:



GFS showing a TUTT over N Florida with a possible ULL working its way down. If 99L gets close it'll be sheared to death.


I see your point
but shear looking low

Lionrock south of Japan opened its eye.
Will be interesting to hear Dr. Master's take on 99L between reorganization North of Hispanola and the possibility that the brush with the Islands may disrupt organization to the point of an open wave; looking forward to his take on the current models.
Down to 1008mb
Quoting 609. Gearsts:

Center is moving wnw should pass north of PR.


Really trucking though. It has travelled a long way just this morning assuming that is it.
Quoting 577. A4Guy:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1135 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to update discussion on
tropical wave in the Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands.

Updated: An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft currently
investigating the broad low pressure area and tropical wave near
the northern Leeward Islands has found winds to tropical storm force
in a few squalls near the northernmost Leeward Islands. Squalls to
tropical storm force can be expected over the extreme northern
Leeward Islands and portions of the northern U.S. and British Virgin
Islands this afternoon. The reconnaissance aircraft mission is
ongoing to determine whether or not a tropical cyclone has formed.

Although environmental conditions are currently only marginally
conducive for additional development, this system could become a
tropical depression or tropical storm at any time during the next
few days while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph across
the northern Leeward Islands, near or over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
and the Bahamas. Strong winds, heavy rains, and possible flash
floods and mudslides are expected to occur over portions of the
Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and
central Bahamas. Please consult products issued by your local
meteorological offices for further details. Interests in the
northwestern Bahamas and Florida should also monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

Yet if the hurricane hunter plane finds tropical storm winds it not decides that a TD or TS has formed. In my opinion this system will continue as an invest, but please, follow the indications of the NHC experts.


Gaston moving west now ridge strengthening over NE
Quoting 618. SFLWeatherman:

Down to 1008mb



But still southerly winds.... I would have expected if that bit to the north were the center, that there would be some form of westerly component to this.. and I'm just not seeing that right now.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 621. chrisdscane:



Gaston moving west now ridge strengthening over NE


anybody got a tinfoil hat somewhere? XD
HH aircraft passed near my place :)
Quoting 615. chrisdscane:



I see your point
but shear looking low



Yea, in the next few frames the ULL moves quickly to the nw over Alabama. Shear moves out of the way.
Quoting 610. Stormchaser2007:

Pretty confident that the remnant MLC will die off this afternoon and the LLC will struggle to generate convection in the face of significant subsidence as well as shear.

The HWRF may not be far off, in that 99L will remain a skeleton for the next 3-4 days.
It might not take that long, enviornemntal conditions improve drastically west of 70W, which it where it should be tomorrow afternoon. I do agree that it should consolidate around the LLC and start developing convection in that area, not only does it look relatively rigorous, but in that case it would miss all of the islands which would bode well for it's future.
Quoting 612. bocahurricane:

Mine was a joke which completely different than wanting a hurricane to hit so he can chase. Obviously you can't tell the difference and are just looking to start an argument with me. Focus on the weather. Peace, love and light




Actually, you couldn't be more wrong.....scientists chase storms all the time....you were sensitive when he said he would love to be able to experience it first hand....he never said he hoped it hit your house or anything of the like....and 10 years ago...your comment would have bugged me...if hurricanes had never hit land...how would there be a chart of storm surges, tide height, wind damage charts etc....SOMEONE had to sit thru it to chart it.... but I will add you to our prayer list at church tonight.....for more than one thing
629. Ed22
Quoting 604. SFLWeatherman:

? 99L is almost north of PR

Current location 18.2 north 64.0 west but still 99L is dis-organised.
Quoting 611. HurriHistory:



Erika number 2, here we go again. Might we be saying 99L R.I.P. ???? 99L needs some medical attention and fast.


Actually, the Euro has been pretty spot on with forecast and progression so far....to me, it looks as though it is doing what a bunch of models have predicted it will do...
Quoting 609. Gearsts:

Center is moving wnw should pass north of PR.

Yes, it can be seen clearly near 18.5 N, which is the latitude of San Juan, PR. By the time it reaches 66 degrees west it should be farther than 30 miles to the north of that city. I don't expect appreciable amount of rain, given the convective ball to the south is moving more to the west and has a steady decrease in convection. I don't see this system as a strong at near nor long term, considering the strong shear to its NW and north.
Quoting 571. juracanpr1:

Invest 99L is really pathetic right now. It is more disorganized than several hours ago. I don expect it to organize any more before reaching (or approaching) PR. In my opinion the short range odds for development should be diminished below 10 %.
Yea as bad as it looks I can see why the GFS isn't developing it
RECON findings so far as they travel back W just passing N of St. Croix is becoming more and more interesting
I don't understand why we're still discussing the GFS seriously lol. Even with all the shear 99L continues to get better organized. First time I have seen rotating winds wrapping into the system from the southeast without getting completely sheared away. Convection is also starting to wrap around the LLC at approx. 18.3 N 64.3 W.
Quoting 574. aquak9:

Pallet of Pepto-Bismal?

Amazon Prime, baby!!
Can I shop for something else? please? Like new sandals?

On a serious note, Gaston's in the wind-wings waiting to play his role. We'll see if his part is major or minor.
636. FOREX
Hurricane Hunters are done for the day according to Weather Channel. Looks like they found TS force winds but zero organization.
Meanwhile, is it just me or does Gaston look wayyy west this run and nearing a turn towards Bermuda? The models have underestimated the Subtropical High this summer.

Quoting 572. chrisdscane:

I hate to bring bad news but 99l will remain decoupled for atleast 24 more hours you can clearly see the displacement between the 500mb vort

And the 850mb (closer to surface) vort


Notice how the 850 is running out ahead of it, I think 99L will look very much tomorrow the way she does today.


It's not stacked. But your using what different frames here. 24hr and 30 hr. May want to fix that.
Quoting 582. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

The euro shows it making landfall in western louisiana.


The Euro has shifted it west for what seems like the last half dozen runs. Didn't it start in the big bend area of Florida?
640. IDTH
Quoting 637. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Meanwhile, is it just me or does Gaston look wayyy west this run and nearing a turn towards Bermuda? The models have underestimated the Subtropical High this summer.



Just got back from my classes but I have been adamant about this since last night. Gaston could traverse further west than the models originally anticipated as they've been leaning toward a much stronger high pressure system over the central Atlantic.
The runoff released negatively affects the reef system off Palm Beach and Jupiter. This reef system is already struggling with silting from beach replenishment along Jupiter, Juno and Palm Beach.