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Unprecented floods on the Mississippi, in Colombia, and Canada

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:58 PM GMT on May 16, 2011

The great Mississippi River flood of 2011 continues to make history, with Saturday's opening of the flood gates of the Morganza Spillway marking just the second time that flood control structure has been used since its construction in 1956. With the Morganza, Bonnet Carre', and Birds Point-New Madrid Spillways all open, the Army Corps of Engineers has now opened all of its major spillways simultaneously for the first time ever. The Mississippi is rising at Vicksburg, Mississippi, where the water has now reached 56.5', exceeding the previous all-time record of 56.2', set during the great flood of 1927. Natchez, Mississippi, is also at its greatest flood height on record, with the water at 60.6'. The previous record high was 58', set in 1937. However, the opening of the Morganza spillway has reduced the predicted heights of the great flood of 2011 from Natchez to New Orleans by 1 to 1.5'. This will serve to greatly reduce the pressure on the levees and on the Old River Control Structure, which as I discussed in my previous post, is America's Achilles' heel, and must be protected. According the National Weather Service, flood heights along the Lower Mississippi from Natchez to New Orleans will peak this week, and slowly fall next week. Rainfall over the next five days is expected to be minimal over the Lower Mississippi watershed. The next chance for significant rain over the region will come Sunday, May 22.


Figure 1. Saturday's opening of the first gate on the Morganza Spillway, as seen on the live feed from USTREAM.

Devastating flooding continues in Colombia
Devastating flooding has hit South America in Colombia, where exceptionally heavy spring rains have killed at least 425 people so far this year, with 482 others missing. Damages are in the billions, and there are 3 million disaster victims. "Some parts of the country have been set back 15 to 20 years", said Plan’s Country Director in Colombia, Gabriela Bucher. "Over the past 10 months we have registered five or six times more rainfall than usual," said the director of Colombia's weather service, Ricardo Lozano. Up to 800 mm (about 32 inches) of rain has fallen along the Pacific coast of Colombia over the past two weeks (Figure 3). The severe spring flooding follows on the heels of the heaviest fall rains in Colombia's History. Weather records go back 42 year in Colombia. Colombia's president Juan Manuel Santos said, "the tragedy the country is going through has no precedents in our history." The 2010 floods killed 571 people--the second deadliest year for floods in Colombian history, next to 1987. The floods did over $1 billion in damage, and affected 2.8 million people. In many places, the flood waters from this great disaster never fully receded, and are now rising again due to this latest round of intense flooding. More rain is in the forecast--the latest forecast from the GFS model calls for an additional 5 - 10 inches (200 - 400 mm) across much of western and northern Colombia in the coming week.


Figure 2. Satellite-observed rainfall over Colombia during the past two weeks shows a region of up to 800 mm (about 32 inches) has fallen near the Pacific coast. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Colombia's rainy season usually has two peaks: one the fall in October, then then another in the spring in April - May. The heavy rains are due to the presence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the area encircling the earth near the Equator where winds originating in the northern and southern hemispheres come together. When these great wind belts come together (or "converge", thus the name "Convergence Zone"), the converging air is forced upwards, since it has nowhere else to go. The rising air fuels strong thunderstorm updrafts, creating a band of very heavy storms capable of causing heavy flooding rains. In La Niña years, when a large region of colder than average water is off the Pacific coast of Colombia, rainfall tends to increase over Colombia. La Niña was moderate to strong during the fall 2010 rains and floods in Colombia, and was largely to blame for Colombia's deadly rainy season. However, in recent months, La Niña has waned. April sea surface temperatures off the Pacific coast of Colombia (0° - 10°N, 85° - 75°W), warmed to the 13th highest temperatures in the past 100 years, 0.68°C above average. Thus, this month's flooding in Colombia may not be due to La Niña.

See also my December 2010 post, Heaviest rains in Colombia's history trigger deadly landslide; 145 dead or missing


Figure 3. Dramatic video of flooding in Colombia over the weekend. Flood waters swept away cars and buses in a busy street in the city of Barranquilla, and passengers climbed on the roofs of their vehicles in order to escape the flood waters. Video credit: BBC.

300-year flood in Canada; wildfires destroy large portions of Slave Lake, Alberta
In Manitoba, Canada, heavy spring snow melt in combination with heavy rains have combined to create record flooding on the Assiniboine River. Authorities intentionally breached a levee over the weekend to save hundreds of homes, but inundated huge areas of farmland as a result. The flood is being called a 300-year flood, and damages are already in excess of $1 billion. In Alberta, Canada, reverse extreme is causing havoc: severe drought and strong spring winds have made ideal conditions for wildfires, which swept into the community of Slave Lake (population 6,700) yesterday. The fires destroyed hundreds of buildings, burning down the town hall and at least 30% of the town, according to preliminary media reports.


Figure 4. Video of the May 15, 2011 Slave Lake fire.

First tropical wave of the year over the Atlantic
The first tropical wave of 2011 is now over the tropical Atlantic near 6°N 46°W, according to the latest Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion. The wave will bring heavy rain to the northeast coast of South America over the next two days, but is too far south to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. The Atlantic hurricane season is just two weeks away, and the Eastern Pacific hurricane season began yesterday. So far, the models are not predicting any tropical storm development in the East Pacific or Atlantic over the next six days.

Jeff Masters
The Great Flood of 2011
The Great Flood of 2011
KCS train crossing the trestle through the Bonnet Carre Spillway at Norco, LA. Flood water diverted from Miss. River

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.
So far, the models are not predicting any tropical storm development in the East Pacific or Atlantic over the next six days


yawn the season a bust
300-year flood in Canada

I do not understand this phraseology. Does it mean a flood will happen every three hundred years?
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
300-year flood in Canada

I do not understand this phraseology. Does it mean a flood will happen every three hundred years?

It means that, statistically-speaking, such an event is calculated to happen every 300 years on average. Far more than 300 years may pass between such events, of course--or one could happen every year.

It seems we've seen a lot of 100-year and 300-year and 500-year weather events lately, so the actuaries are going to be really busy revising those exceedance probabilities.
Quoting Tazmanian:
So far, the models are not predicting any tropical storm development in the East Pacific or Atlantic over the next six days


yawn the season a bust


Lol, no storm in mid-May clearly indicates a below-average season... :P
Maybe some of that rain will flood out the drug Cartel. Some very very dangerous people in Columbia.
Quoting Tazmanian:
So far, the models are not predicting any tropical storm development in the East Pacific or Atlantic over the next six days


yawn the season a bust
LMAO!
I believe that this year will closely follow the season of 2008 for the Atlantic...That, and 1996 (number of impacts only).
"The Chart"?
Something may try to get going over the Memorial Day Weekend in the Western Caribbean as a result of the MJO settling in now.
GFS has been on and off with showing a broad low near Jamaica next weekend moving NNW.
Quoting Neapolitan:

It means that, statistically-speaking, such an event is calculated to happen every 300 years on average. Far more than 300 years may pass between such events, of course--or one could happen every year.

It seems we've seen a lot of 100-year and 300-year and 500-year weather events lately, so the actuaries are going to be really busy revising those exceedance probabilities.


And just to be clear, the formulae for recurrence probabilities will not change. To what particular geographic area they are applied-may.
plenty of moisture in the E Carib.

Small tremor felt in Jamaica.

Link
oh dear...We need a qualified person to post TheChart, please.
No storms, see yall next year.
I need an avatar.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
I need an avatar.


modified- I LOVE the screen name.
I like the commercials.
It's uncle Sam's wife
Quoting kimoskee:
Small tremor felt in Jamaica.

Link


Those tremors aren't visible on the usgs or iris only two quakes have been posted since yesterday it seems.
I did hear a rumbling around that time though.
Magnitude M 4.8
Region JAMAICA REGION
Date time 2011-05-16 15:07:07.5 UTC
Location 17.94 N ; 77.86 W
Depth 20 km
Distances 96 km W Spanish town (pop 145,018 ; local time 10:07:07.5 2011-05-16)
26 km S Savanna la mar (pop 18,616 ; local time 10:07:07.5 2011-05-16)
10 km S Black river (pop 4,229 ; local time 10:07:07.5 2011-05-16)

Here we go again.

Ya'll know what to do.
on tv it said the nashville flood was a 1000 year flood event.
Quoting aquak9:
Here we go again.

Ya'll know what to do.
schools out already?
"Ring of Destruction"? Is that like the Ring of Fire?
Quoting tkeith:
schools out already?



LOL
We had a 0.364-year storm here yesterday.
34. PrivateIdaho 12:15 PM EDT on May 16, 2011
We had a 0.364-year storm here yesterday.


LOL

I like your avatar. Very cool.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
We had a 0.364-year storm here yesterday.


:O

You get almost 3 of those a year?!
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


:O

You get almost 3 of those a year?!
...but we got 4 last year!
Earthquakes, floods, what is next?
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Earthquakes, floods, what is next?
Hurricanes!
Quoting RingOfDestruction:
GOOD, se largo la analfabeta esa, Anyway, do y'all think that South Florida is in danger this summer?


Isn't it every year!!!! It only takes one for some to say it was a horrible season.
Ok, I guess I asked for that. Duh!
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Earthquakes, floods, what is next?


Plagues of high schoolers unleashed upon this board!

On the good news front...some of that clear liquid fell from the skies over Palm Beach County this weekend!!
I made it to the shuttle Launch this morning..took some pics for ya'll. Will get the rest up in a bit.

Nice # 46,Good for you!
Best ride ever!

I think there might be something with this convection in the EPAC (far left). I noticed some on/off convection leaving the large amount of convection that built-up yesterday and moved south, kind of looked like a LLC trying to form. Now it is back in 30C waters with convection building again. Very little wind data for the area though so its difficult to tell (but I did notice low-level winds coming from the south during yesterday with RGB), and shear should be low for some time.

Skyepony...

Absolutely beautiful. Thanks for the pic!
Surprised to see you back so quickly.
They were saying up to 500k may be out there for the launch
Quoting Skyepony:
I made it to the shuttle Launch this morning..took some pics for ya'll. Will get the rest up in a bit.


Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Best ride ever!



An 8 year old me: "Mom, can I please go on it?"

Me now: I'm going on that. LOL
Quoting aquak9:
Here we go again.

Ya'll know what to do.


Did it already.

This is sad.....
(pottery)
Are the fires in the Everglades still going?
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
#48

Nice!


Welcome to the blog.

I have one problem. Can you help me, my card is having a problem LOL?
Quoting Skyepony:
I made it to the shuttle Launch this morning..took some pics for ya'll. Will get the rest up in a bit.


Really great photo Skyepony! Thanks! Also thank you for all of the informative posts that you provide on here. :)
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Are the fires in the Everglades still going?


I believe so. They've made nice sunsets here in PBC.
I have one problem. Can you help me, my card is having a problem LOL?

Sure, I can send you a keychain or a truckers cap. Chicks dig them.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
I have one problem. Can you help me, my card is having a problem LOL?

Sure, I can send you a keychain or a truckers cap. Chicks dig them.


LOL
hey guys good morning I say this with the MJO setting in and the latest ensemble guidance continues to point towards a trough of low pressure lifting out of the eastern United States later this week into this weekend and being replaced by a ridge of high pressure if this happen it may cause a lowering in the barometric pressures over the western Caribbean as we get into next week. I think this will cause an increase in thunderstorm activity and possibly some sort of low pressure system forming in the western Caribbean towards Thursday and Friday of next week. just just like what someone said earler with a low foecasted to move NNW in thhe Western Carib in generally the same time.
caneswatch, you are the only person to get my handle.
Quoting aquak9:
(pottery)


((XX))
a picture I took this morning of the shuttle's launch from siesta key in sarasota along florida's west coast,got lucky as their where clouds to our north and south and we had a clear slot!!!


peggy- I had to do a little googling but your handle is cool
Thank you aquak9.
Now we need to build a levee system from the Morganza spillway all the way to the Gulf,just in case another 500 year flood hits! lol
YAY GFS has an EPAC system.

Thanks everyone. The shuttles are louder, rattle ya inside more than the other launches from there. It hit the cloud deck & disappeared for a 1/2 a minute or so.. Leaving full attention to the anticipation of the launch sound rolling toward us. Just waiting to be shook by it, maybe for the last time. Hope I win a placard next time too, to be close enough to feel it like that.

PalmBay~ We were parked lucky. Got right out. I was going south on SR3 under 528 & 520 before it even backed up or the media scared everyone into not going.
BTW does any of what I said you get just wanting to know
Awesome pics Skye,it must be incredible to hear that thunderous roar.Have talked to people who have seen others and they say it does shake every bone in your body.Thanks for the great pics.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
BTW does any of what I said you get just wanting to know

Loud and Clear...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
BTW does any of what I said you get just wanting to know


The best part of your statement is that the eastern trough will be lifting out,Good riddance.I haven't seen the sun except for a glimpse in the past week and a half.
I need to find an avatar of Peggy.
Don't think you are so far away that I can't track you down Peggy! Sincerely, Bobby Bowden
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
I need to find an avatar of Peggy.
Hope this works.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Thanks. Over the next SIX days! Not seven anymore?


The GFS was maybe showing something in the EPAC in 7 days, which none of the other models were, so I got lazy and just said six days, since I didn't think the GFS forecast was worth bringing up.

Jeff Masters
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Don't count on anything there it's the western Caribbean next week thaqt appears to be the hot spot. At the very least we will see a broad low moving N or NNW toward western Cuba come late next week. Look at the flow below from south to north from the Caribbean.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ carib/gfs/12/fp0_300.shtml
What's long range models showing for Yucatan area around June 2nd thru June 6th? might be going on cruise in the Gulf there.
All I see is a red X in a box.
hmmm hurricane strike
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
I need to find an avatar of Peggy.


How 'bout this?

KeysieLife, thank you.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
KeysieLife, thank you.


No prob...I'll take the hat. =)
Quoting JeffMasters:


The GFS was maybe showing something in the EPAC in 7 days, which none of the other models were, so I got lazy and just said six days, since I didn't think the GFS forecast was worth bringing up.

Jeff Masters


Slacker! j/k
Quoting RitaEvac:
What's long range models showing for Yucatan area around June 2nd thru June 6th? might be going on cruise in the Gulf there.


I'm leaving on the Allure Of The Seas on 6/5 going to Labadee, Jamaica, and Cozumel. I'm sure this will be a wet trip as by the rainy season will for sure be going strong from FL down thru the Caribbean.
I still think EPAC will be starting sooner than the models are predicting. The low some models are producing is from the vorticity further to the east, which may also develop. But it already seems like the other storm is trying to pull together some banding/LLC.
Quoting RastaSteve:


I'm leaving on the Allure Of The Seas on 6/5 going to Labadee, Jamaica, and Cozumel. I'm sure this will be a wet trip as by the rainy season will for sure be going strong from FL down thru the Caribbean.


Maybe the Carnival Ecstasy on June 2nd from Galveston, to Cozumel, and back to Galveston on the 6th.
Now we're cooking with gas!
Quoting nigel20:


Really heated up in the past week or so.
We were just getting our afternoon thunderstorm pattern going then this massive trough came screaming thru and putting the breaks on our thunderstorm pattern temperarly but expect it to come back next week and come back for good this time.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Maybe the Carnival Ecstasy on June 2nd from Galveston, to Cozumel, and back to Galveston on the 6th.


We will just miss each other. I leave on 6/5 and comeback 6/12. I think I'm in Cozumel on 6/10.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Really heated up in the past week or so.
yes it is
Quoting RastaSteve:


We will just miss each other. I leave on 6/5 and comeback 6/12. I think I'm in Cozumel on 6/10.


That would be scarey to run into each other
Post #107

LOL

Instant classic.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Really heated up in the past week or so.


Rocket Fuel?? LOL.

I hope I am the first with that line this year.
I am still waiting for "The Chart".
Maybe I ought to leave a message in a bottle on the beach that says "RitaEvac was just here, see ya in cyberspace on the blog next week!" lol
SST's are looking good ( for trop. storms, anyway) in the south east Carib they are already up to 83f, and off southern Mexico in the Pacific, they are at 86f.
Plenty potential energy around already.

Oh, and right now it's raining hard for the last 15 mins or so.
Very nice!
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
I am still waiting for "The Chart".


Eh hem...DestinJeff....
Quoting DestinJeff:


Thanks, Dr. Masters. Just giving you a good-natured ribbing. Obviously I pay attention to and appreciate your posts, but some of us here do mine humor from wherever we can.

Well, some call it humor anyway.
I thrive on humor.......Simon says its prayer time.......!..Gospel chart shrine...:)
Quoting RingOfDestruction:
Dr. Masters, by when will you be putting forth your forecast for the upcoming 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season, sir? I'm already beginning to look forward to it, professor, ^_^.





when will you evere get it
when will you evere get it

From the little I know, I am thinking never.
Quoting DestinJeff:


Thanks, Dr. Masters. Just giving you a good-natured ribbing. Obviously I pay attention to and appreciate your posts, but some of us here do mine humor from wherever we can.

Well, some call it humor anyway.


Always stirring up trouble...now stirring it up with the Doc himself!
Quoting RingOfDestruction:
Dr. Masters, by when will you be putting forth your forecast for the upcoming 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season, sir? I'm already beginning to look forward to it, professor, ^_^.




JFV you been reported for bypassing the Admin banneds
Supposed to have an arrow where were at saying "You are Here"

roflmao...now the blogging season has really begun! Shields UP Taz!
StormTop has entered the blog somewhere
Quoting RitaEvac:
Supposed to have an arrow where were at saying "You are Here"


RitaEvac...we need that moutain climber guy from The Price is Right..with the "yodel" song playing in the background....lol
ya'll are ALL a bunch of slackers from what I can see!! Now get to work!

(YAY!! TheChart!!)
lol, yea who posts that?
Plenty of convection in the Pacific off the Central American coast...
LOL...am I the only one with audio?
weak Saharan air layer at the momentLink
Quoting DestinJeff:


yeah. My work here is done.

Not fair to say I stir up trouble, that's all Dewey and his alternate universe blog of yesteryear.

Where is he anyway?


LOL...I stand corrected. You are correct about him stirring the pot. And who knows? Maybe he stirred up trouble with the wrong person?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Stop interupting the blog please...

JFV=


Now you've really done it...
Quoting DestinJeff:


Taz is right. Too many The Charts get in the way of The Curtain:




Ahhh, such a beautiful curtain. I might get one.
An extensive amount of moisture with the Atlantic low...
It's quite obvious where all the upward motion from the MJO is right now. It's all over the eastern Pacific and western Atlantic. The only problem is that it is all too far south. Once it lifts north, which will likely be before the end of the month, it will be able to stir up possible trouble. Until then, it is bottled up safely.



That is one ugly shower curtain.
Gulf and Carribbean has been swept clean with dry air
Quoting RingOfDestruction:


If only, remember that it's very difficult for him to comprehend that, cause he ain't like the rest of us, -__-.


Lol....

Should I say it or should everyone figure it out on their own?
Doc Masters didn't mention the 7 day gfs because he didn't want to start a frenzy...."I see some spin"...."it's heading to Florida"..."it's a fish storm"....blah blah blah.;^)
mmm...
I'm thinking a black leather curtain...
Quoting Levi32:
It's quite obvious where all the upward motion from the MJO is right now. It's all over the eastern Pacific and western Atlantic. The only problem is that it is all too far south. Once it lifts north, which will likely be before the end of the month, it will be able to stir up possible trouble. Until then, it is bottled up safely.



The upper low drifting around the SE US is really helping to suppress any thunderstorm activity in the Gulf and Western Caribbean. Tons of dry air...
That is one ugly shower curtain.

you oughtta see what crawls outta the shower...
Quoting MississippiWx:


Ahhh, such a beautiful curtain. I might get one.




ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh



LOL
Quoting aquak9:
That is one ugly shower curtain.

you oughtta see what crawls outta the shower...


lmao...+100000000000
oh wants too see me in a drss
ahhh....the old Taz reporting posts, JFV, the chart....reminds of last season....good times XD.
We should probably get back on topic now though...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ahhh....the old Taz reporting posts, JFV, the chart....reminds of last season....good times XD.


And the season before last, and the season before that one, and so on and so forth...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ahhh....the old Taz reporting posts, JFV, the chart....reminds of last season....good times XD.
lol
Look to see sunny skies with temps in the 80s all week long....back to you guys
NWS says 74 °F, but I know that has to be false...More like 84 °F.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Look to see sunny skies with temps in the 80s all week long....back to you guys


I'll gladly trade with you...60s here for high and lows in the 40s...in MAY. Ugh...this is not MS weather. I am so tired of the cold...
don't forget rabid
Quoting tkeith:
lol


Indeed, good to see ya again, Keith! Ready for another season?
Quoting MississippiWx:


I'll gladly trade with you...60s here for high and lows in the 40s...in MAY. Ugh...this is not MS weather. I am so tired of the cold...


That's like winter time here in SE TX, I was in Galveston yesterday at the San Luis pool and bar, women in string bikinis and people in the water sipping alcohol
With posts like that, RingofDestruction will be going down down down in a burning ring of fire before the day is through.
Don't worry...it's just a fish flood....or maybe a spud flood.

Flood WarningFLOOD WARNING
IDC011-162201-
/O.CON.KPIH.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SNAI1.2.RS.110510T2100Z.110519T0600Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
101 PM MDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR...
THE SNAKE RIVER AT BLACKFOOT.
* AT 12:15 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.4 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.1 FEET BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RISES MAY BE POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER.
* IMPACT...AT 11.0 FEET...LOWLAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR. FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG US HIGHWAY 26 BENEATH THE INTERSTATE 15 UNDERPASS.

Don't think SAL will be a problem at all this season...

Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
With posts like that, RingofDestruction will be going down down down in a burning ring of fire before the day is through.


We can only hope.
Oughtta let people in Lousiana and Texas Siphon that water in water tanks and use it on the drought
172.

You need a lesson in trolling. Being so painfully obvious in your trolling kinda defeats the purpose. But then again... anyone trolling now is painfully obvious.
jeffs- it's kinda like having a fish on the hook, and just playin' with it for a while.
It has been warm today in San Juan and Mayaguez,Puerto Rico because of the southern winds,despite cloud cover and showers that have been falling.There is also some haze in the air as I can see a semigray sky.

PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST MON MAY 16 2011

PRZ001-004-161900-
PUERTO RICO

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

SAN JUAN LMM PTSUNNY 90 72 55 SE8 29.85F HX 96

MAYAGUEZ PTSUNNY 91 72 52 SW9 29.87 HX 98
Quoting jeffs713:
172.

You need a lesson in trolling. Being so painfully obvious in your trolling kinda defeats the purpose. But then again... anyone trolling now is painfully obvious.
it's trolling pre-season.
it's trolling pre-season.

Is that like baseball pre-season?
hmmm...more like dodgeball preseason.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
Now we're cooking with gas!


Now that is your perfect Avatar
Post 180, I concur.

Post 181, no, we are not happy.
Let us pray...
Quoting aquak9:
Let us pray...


yes, please.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


yes, please.

ommmmmmmmmmmmm>>>>>>>>>
I'll have a blog entry out in about 15-30 minutes, first of 2011.
Quoting pottery:

ommmmmmmmmmmmm>>>>>>>>>


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Your wishing for thousands/millions of people to get killed? Seriously?!


Look who's back.... how are ya doin' Cody?

Don't mind the troll BTW.
Quoting caneswatch:


Look who's back.... how are ya doin' Cody?

Don't mind the troll BTW.


Hey...I'm doing good, how about you?
Quoting pottery:

ommmmmmmmmmmmm>>>>>>>>> ;


Pottery,que bola, mano? Que hay de nuevo, caribeno? En lucha, eh, socio?
194. Jax82
Ignore, no quoting, move on. Simple process for this season :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Your wishing for thousands/millions of people to get killed? Seriously?!


I've wished many times that an EF-5 tornado would hit his house and his house only.
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
caneswatch, you are the only person to get my handle.


I'm surprised, I thought a lot more would know about it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


hey


You're Cody? Oh snap, I think I have you on Facebook, BRB, let me double check, just to make sure. Canes, how you've been, brah?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hey...I'm doing good, how about you?


Can't complain honestly..... holdin' up here.
Quoting RingOfDestruction:


You're Cody? Oh snap, I think I have you on Facebook, BRB, let me double check, just to make sure. Canes, how you've been, brah?


You definitely do not have me on facebook.
Beware of the.... Tragic Result Of Lost Lives

201. MTWX
Well you know the tropical seasons are starting when the blog looks like this!!! Looks like opening Morganza is helping.. Hopefully everything goes well and the levees hold up!
202. Jax82
Quoting sunlinepr:
Tragic Result Of Lost Lives


troll/trōl/
Noun: A mythical, cave-dwelling being depicted in folklore as either a giant or a dwarf, typically having a very ugly appearance. ;-)

haha and there is a wiki page for 'Trolls'
Quoting sunlinepr:
Tragic Result Of Lost Lives



You can clearly see where the MJO and ITCZ lie.
lucky enough to travel through panama this week. this country has the canal and is becoming a power house. recession? not there. panama city looks like dubai central american style. happy weather
Oh Boy!
Quoting islander101010:
lucky enough to travel through panama this week. this country has the canal and is becoming a power house. recession? not there. panama city looks like dubai central american style. happy weather

Panama Airport has become the Hub, for everything Central and South American as well.
Very busy, with connections to everywhere.
This in response to the real problems that people were having getting a visa to pass through the hubs of the southern USA. (Atlanta, Miami, etc)
When I last passed through Panama, there were 84 gates and we had to park on the apron with plenty other flights, and get a bus to the Terminal. At 10:00 pm. Very busy there. Just about every airline in the World has a counter there...
Things will be as they will,esp the weather
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Atlantic/East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook - 4:30 pm EST




Thank youuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu
Did anyone see the sundog yesterday???
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


You definitely do not have me on facebook.


>mfw he has no idea I have him on "the list"
Quoting caneswatch:


>mfw he has no idea I have him on "the list"


Me amenazas, ratero infeliz?
Quoting RingOfDestruction:
Good overall post, bud! Conversely, you need to back up the following bold, meteorological statement from your blog, because in case you haven't read Dr. Master's blog from today, in it, eh clearly contradicts everything that you stated on this remark, just saying, OK? Overall, not bad for a rookie. You've got weather skills, kid.




''Several models are depicting the possibility of a tropical cyclone to form in the western/southwestern Caribbean Sea by the end of next week into Memorial Day''

It also begs the question, what are you seeing here that the phenomenal and historical Doc isn't? Or vice-versa, perhaps, just pointing out the obvious...


Dr. Masters said that no development is expected within the next 6 days....That puts us at the 22nd. I'm looking beyond that.
It left the building.
Quoting RingOfDestruction:
Be back by this evening, my fellow bloggers, I'm off to go buy a Cuban sandwich para jamar for my supper tonight. Until then, make it a groovy rest of your Monday, all, ^_^.
later JFV
If you friend him on facebook, do you get a free shower curtain?
Quoting Levi32:


:\

I'm guessing the blue area leading from the Caribbean into the GOMEX is where hurricanes/tropical cyclones will likely track from July - August.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
later JFV


Good evening, Keeps, how you've been, sir? I hope you and yours are blessed.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


:\

I'm guessing the blue area leading from the Caribbean into the GOMEX is where hurricanes/tropical cyclones will likely track from July - August.


It depends. Sometimes the precipitation forecasts are better indication of where tropical cyclones are likely to form, not necessarily where they will track. However, the areas of above-normal precipitation on the JMA model are the typical areas for early-season activity anyway, so if storms were to develop during the early months, they are already likely to track in that area.



Quoting Levi32:


Ayyyyyy Dios mio, Dios miooooooooo, what does that blue and red signify, Levi? =(.
lol,this blog gets better and better as we approach the season,never a dull moment.
Quoting RingOfDestruction:


Good evening, Keeps, how you've been, sir? I hope you and yours are blessed.
been ok still here still the same handle hows it been for you ya must be nearing the 50 handle mark by now


hehehehehe
This is what I'm seeing, arrows are low/mid level winds. I'm giving it a 60% chance to develop over the next 24 hours.
http://twitpic.com/4yg6hs

Unusual picture of Shuttle launch "contrail" taken from a passenger plane.
Quoting NEwxguy:
lol,this blog gets better and better as we approach the season,never a dull moment.
i hear there are going to be some high numbers this banning season
Quoting alfabob:
This is what I'm seeing, arrows are low/mid level winds. I'm giving it a 60% chance to develop over the next 24 hours.


According to ASCAT, the broad, broad circulation (poorly-defined) would be to the west of that, would in itself would delay development for the next couple of days.

I'd give it a 0% chance for development within the next 24 hours.
The approach of 'Hurricane Season' seems to coincide with the start of 'Idiot Season'.
A strange phenomenon, probably related to Climate Change, which as everyone knows, brings on Blogitis Maxima.
As you know, this is Contagious, Fatal, and Supremely Annoying. In that order.

Take your Pills, say a Prayer, and hope you Survive.....
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
been ok still here still the same handle hows it been for you ya must be nearing the 50 handle mark by now


hehehehehe


You've grown to know me that well, my friend, what else can I say, ^_^. Looking forward to sharing another cane season with your exceptional maps, Keeper, =).
Quoting pottery:
The approach of 'Hurricane Season' seems to coincide with the start of 'Idiot Season'.
A strange phenomenon, probably related to Climate Change, which as everyone knows, brings on Blogitis Maxima.
As you know, this is Contagious, Fatal, and Supremely Annoying. In that order.

Take your Pills, say a Prayer, and hope you Survive.....


For some people, idiot season lasts 24/7/365.
Everyone,

My grandmother has just passed away from dementia. I might have to go up north for a bit, so i'll probably be gone for a bit. I please ask you keep all of our family in your prayers.

Canes
Sorry canes.
Quoting caneswatch:
Everyone,

My grandmother has just passed away from dementia. I might have to go up north for a bit, so i'll probably be gone for a bit. I please ask you keep all of our family in your prayers.

Canes


:(
Quoting caneswatch:
Everyone,

My grandmother has just passed away from dementia. I might have to go up north for a bit, so i'll probably be gone for a bit. I please ask you keep all of our family in your prayers.

Canes


My condolences and sympathies for your personal loss, my friend, may God watch forever over her inside of His Kingdom Come, =(.
Quoting caneswatch:
Everyone,

My grandmother has just passed away from dementia. I might have to go up north for a bit, so i'll probably be gone for a bit. I please ask you keep all of our family in your prayers.

Canes

Will do that.
Keep Strong.
Quoting pottery:
The approach of 'Hurricane Season' seems to coincide with the start of 'Idiot Season'.
A strange phenomenon, probably related to Climate Change, which as everyone knows, brings on Blogitis Maxima.
As you know, this is Contagious, Fatal, and Supremely Annoying. In that order.

Take your Pills, say a Prayer, and hope you Survive.....
buckle up this is is going to be a long bumpy ridemany will come only some will remain
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
http://twitpic.com/4yg6hs

Unusual picture of Shuttle launch "contrail" taken from a passenger plane.
that is a really cool pic, thanks for sharing!!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
buckle up this is is going to be a long bumpy ridemany will come only some will remain

I like it!
You are beginning to sound like the Mayan Calendar. LOL.
Good to see you are still in the Front Row here, Keeper.
Like a broken record, is it ever gonna rain in TX?
Hello everyone! hurricane season is only two weeks away and already have my supplies just in case anyway hopefully we will have a season like last year with a good amount of storms but no landfalls of major hurricanes one can be optimistic right?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Like a broken record, is it ever gonna rain in TX?


Scratch that... it has rained, is it ever going to rain enough substantially along the coast of TX ever?!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Like a broken record, is it ever gonna rain in TX?


I used to live in Fort Worth until about two months ago...Not been really dry there. I'm sure you guys will get rain soon and the drought will go away. ;)
Quoting alfabob:
This is what I'm seeing, arrows are low/mid level winds. I'm giving it a 60% chance to develop over the next 24 hours.


The very broad low- mid-level circulation is located all the way back at ~5.5N ~104.5W. Imminent development is unlikely.



Loop
Quoting RitaEvac:
Like a broken record, is it ever gonna rain in TX?

Sure is!
In August....

heheheh
Quoting Levi32:


The very broad low- mid-level circulation is located all the way back at ~5.5N ~104.5W.



Loop
No development in the near term.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Nice!
Let us know the Outcome of that.
Whatever it might be.
Quoting Levi32:


The very broad low- mid-level circulation is located all the way back at ~5.5N ~104.5W. Imminent development is unlikely.



Loop


Well...I doubt it'd become a TD within', say, 12 hours or so (that's unlikely but not impossible) however it is very possible to even likely that a TWO will be issued on it and the NHC will give it a yellow or orange circle sometime tomorrow possibly. And I'd say there is a 40-60% chance of this becoming a TD or TS within' the next 4 days, a 5% chance of tonight.
EUROSIP from yesterday:


Warm-biased neutral:




Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
oh good, this addresses my inner most thoughts ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


According to ASCAT, the broad, broad circulation (poorly-defined) would be to the west of that, would in itself would delay development for the next couple of days.

I'd give it a 0% chance for development within the next 24 hours.


Couldn't clearly see the other circulation with the image I was using, but I think the ASCAT may have mis-read some of the winds (or they are for the upper-atmosphere). It looks cyclonic on RGB instead of anti (just a change in wind direction); but it may dissipate faster due to another cyclone to its west. If the AOI manages to stay in 30C waters, it should be able to start dropping pressure and picking up wind speeds.
Quoting Levi32:


The very broad low- mid-level circulation is located all the way back at ~5.5N ~104.5W. Imminent development is unlikely.



Loop

I'm seeing a LLC around 8N, 100W which came from the burst of convection yesterday; and another more broad circulation to the N/NE of it. The other broad low to the SW though may prohibit development, but I'm not expecting the low that is labeled to actually develop.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
EUROSIP from yesterday:


Warm-biased neutral:






Hi there, good sir, what might all of that entail for SF later on this summer?
Quoting alfabob:
This is what I'm seeing, arrows are low/mid level winds. I'm giving it a 60% chance to develop over the next 24 hours.


I'd give it a bit less than that, but nowhere near 0%. Probably around 20-50%. I think it has a very darn good shot at development by mid to late week. The NHC might as well put up a circle for it tomorrow.
Quoting hurricaneben:

I'd give it a bit less than that, but nowhere near 0%. Probably around 20-50%. I think it has a very darn good shot at development by mid to late week. The NHC might as well put up a circle for it tomorrow.

Yea I messed up because I didn't notice the other low that developed next to it. But taking that into account I would say 60% over the next 2-3 days, and probably 30% over the next 24.
Quoting alfabob:

I'm seeing a LLC around 8N, 100W which came from the burst of convection yesterday; and another more broad circulation to the N/NE of it. The other broad low to the SW though may prohibit development, but I'm not expecting the low that is labeled to actually develop.


I see no low-level rotation at those coordinates. There is a hint at a left-over MLC from the initial burst of convection, but it is currently dissipating and has no connection to the surface.
Quoting Levi32:

I see no low-level rotation at those coordinates. There is a hint at a left-over MLC from the initial burst of convection, but it is currently dissipating and has no connection at the surface.

You have to zoom in on RGB and you will see a slight opening in cloud cover (a couple of frames ago), and some yellow spinning around under-it. Just to its SE is a large burst of convection (recent frames). If you have 24 hour imagery, you can see something leave the initial burst of convection and travel to that position.
Quoting alfabob:

Yea I messed up because I didn't notice the other low that developed next to it. But taking that into account I would say 60% over the next 2-3 days, and probably 30% over the next 24.


Ya and I made a blog about it just now--just in case you wanna check it out. I do think the NHC might put a circle around it within' the next 24 hours and a TD/TS--not so likely but then again not impossible within' 24 hours. Within' 72 hours, very possible.
Disorganized, but nice to see the EPAC ITCZ heating up.

Quoting alfabob:


Couldn't clearly see the other circulation with the image I was using, but I think the ASCAT may have mis-read some of the winds (or they are for the upper-atmosphere). It looks cyclonic on RGB instead of anti (just a change in wind direction); but it may dissipate faster due to another cyclone to its west. If the AOI manages to stay in 30C waters, it should be able to start dropping pressure and picking up wind speeds.


It's easy for a system to look like a tropical system, but all systems that mock a tropical cyclone may not have a circulation center under the convection that looks like it may have one. Make sense?
I see the praying only helped a little.

Peggy's gone? Dangblast it, I found her an awesome shower curtain on Ebay. Bidding's hard and heavy.
Quoting cyclonekid:


It's easy for a system to look like a tropical system, but all systems that mock a tropical cyclone may not have a circulation center under the convection that looks like it may have one. Make sense?

I know that, the only reason I'm saying this has a circulation is because I watched it form; and I could faintly see it under the cloud cover. I wouldn't consider something attached to the ITCZ an AOI if it was just random thunderstorms showing up. This thing has been around for 36-48 hours now and is still building convection/organizing.
Evening all. Back after a long, long day.

Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning everyone. Well, yesterday when that front moved through the Keys, I was very hopeful that we would get some rain. Had clouds, thunder, cooler air, and 15 drops of rain. Then the sun came out. So disappointing. So BahaHurican, don't get your hopes up. I can't wait for one of our frog strangling downpours. I will be dancing in the street, until I have to dog paddle:)
kwgirl, between the time I made that post and the time I left for work this morning, the front dropped about the same 15 drops of rain on my car. It was just enough to make spots in the dust on the car... and was dry before I got to work. [sigh...]

I guess the earlier forecast of 60% chance of rain has fizzled, too.... it's dry up and down this archipelago... and looking like we will have to wait for a tropical entity to break the pattern.

Now I'll go read a few posts.... lol
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
If you friend him on facebook, do you get a free shower curtain?



LOL
What?! What shower curtain? Where?!
Sorry Peggy- they only had 27 of them, and they're all sold.

:)

I tried!!
Taz appreciates my humor. Atleast someone does.
Aquak9, did they have fish on them?
Quoting pottery:
The approach of 'Hurricane Season' seems to coincide with the start of 'Idiot Season'.
A strange phenomenon, probably related to Climate Change, which as everyone knows, brings on Blogitis Maxima.
As you know, this is Contagious, Fatal, and Supremely Annoying. In that order.

Take your Pills, say a Prayer, and hope you Survive.....


The last month or two have been great for updating the old ignore list and I have the filters ready to go. For those who slip by, I also have a wooden mallot to hit myself over the head with.

Here's to an interesting season.

WTO
blue background, tropical fish, and even a studly dude in black leather to come install them.

Sigh....I appreciate your humor too, Peggy.
I also have a wooden mallot to hit myself over the head with.

You may be asked to share that mallot before the season is over.
Quoting alfabob:

I know that, the only reason I'm saying this has a circulation is because I watched it form; and I could faintly see it under the cloud cover. I wouldn't consider something attached to the ITCZ an AOI if it was just random thunderstorms showing up. This thing has been around for 36-48 hours now and is still building convection/organizing.


Yea I noticed that about the same time. Persistence is the key to the NHC using their yellow crayon. Give it about a day or two to get organized, we might see the crayon pop out then.
Quoting alfabob:
This thing has been around for 36-48 hours now and is still building convection/organizing.

Thank you, aquak9.

Hmmm.... potential tropical something in the EPac already??? Granted, SSTs look good enough.

While one never knows, I think I'll be giving more of an eye to that Twave #1 - if it makes it W of Panama.... and sadly, it looks like that #1 will be contributing some more rain to Columbia.

"EPAC"

Isn't that what Grandpa Simpson yelled in the Simpson movie?
Quoting aquak9:
blue background, tropical fish, and even a studly dude in black leather to come install them.

Sigh....I appreciate your humor too, Peggy.
The horror of it all,I tell ya
Quoting StAugustineFL:

Reality really sucks, man.
Quoting pottery:

Reality really sucks, man.
Great bumper sticker: Question Reality
Quoting StAugustineFL:


that's probably one of my many favorite pictures haha
Quoting pottery:

Reality really sucks, man.
ya sometimes but dont worry it comes back everyday as somebody else
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Great bumper sticker: Question Reality

Especially these days.
It used to be all so simple...
Now, Reality TV is the hottest form of fiction.
And people swear that's it's all true.
Incredible.

ah, well.
Well I'm glad we had lots of strong thunderstorms and heavy rain this weekend in Florida. But with a frontal passage this strong followed by cool and dry air almost record levels, its safe to say the wet season isn't here anytime soon.


Because overall well above normal temps dominated late February into early this month, and La Nina dying I thought it might mean an early start to Florida's wet season.

However it was just an educated guess pretty much, its hard to actually forecast it anyway. Overall though, once the wet season does get cranking, I'm expecting at or above normal rainfall and a much higher amount of strong thunderstorm activity than last year.

Last year we consistently stable air masses with warm air aloft and inversions even into the heart of last year. This year Florida has been dominated mostly by unstable air with cold air aloft for the most part, even when upper ridges have been in place, there has been cold air aloft.


Once we get a surge of that 2.0 to to 2.25 inch PWAT air from the deep tropics like we do in the wet season. Numerous thunderstorms, many of them very strong will be plentiful in Florida. That's the way I see it.

It may take quite a while longer though.

What happened to Grothar? Anyone know?
I miss his comments.
Quoting pottery:

Reality really sucks, man.

Quoting pottery:

Reality really sucks, man.


Family photo album circa 1987 rocking the dot matrix printer and 15" CRT monitor. Mom was a little upset when she saw the cig in my right hand.

Sorry to interrupt. A light attempt at humor while things are a bit slow.........
MODIS view of Lake Pontchartrain showing the Bonnet Carre infusion into the lake from the Big Muddy..

Quoting Jedkins01:
Well I'm glad we had lots of strong thunderstorms and heavy rain this weekend in Florida. But with a frontal passage this strong followed by cool and dry air almost record levels, its safe to say the wet season isn't here anytime soon.


Because overall well above normal temps dominated late February into early this month, and La Nina dying I thought it might mean an early start to Florida's wet season.

However it was just an educated guess pretty much, its hard to actually forecast it anyway. Overall though, once the wet season does get cranking, I'm expecting at or above normal rainfall and a much higher amount of strong thunderstorm activity than last year.

Last year we consistently stable air masses with warm air aloft and inversions even into the heart of last year. This year Florida has been dominated mostly by unstable air with cold air aloft for the most part, even when upper ridges have been in place, there has been cold air aloft.


Once we get a surge of that 2.0 to to 2.25 inch PWAT air from the deep tropics like we do in the wet season. Numerous thunderstorms, many of them very strong will be plentiful in Florida. That's the way I see it.

It may take quite a while longer though.



Waiting patiently. Can we fast forward 2-3 weeks?
Quoting StAugustineFL:



Family photo album circa 1987 rocking the dot matrix printer and 15" CRT monitor. Mom was a little upset when she saw the cig in my right hand.

Sorry to interrupt. A light attempt at humor while things are a bit slow.........

LOL I hope Mom whacked you across the head for the cig.
Sorry someone didnt do that to me....
Satellite image of the Morganza spillway with gate(s) open




http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/post/morganza-spillway-from-space-image-of -day/2011/05/16/AFLCFA5G_blog.html.

original from NASA photos at:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/5727210487/in/set-7215 7626684307622/#/

The Morganza Spillway as Seen by NASA's EO-1 Satellite

NASA image captured May 15, 2011

This true color image of the Morganza Spillway located 45 miles northwest of Baton Rouge, Louisiana, was captured by the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) instrument on NASA's Earth Observing (EO-1) satellite on May 15, 2011.

According to ENN.com, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers opened up two of the 125 floodgates on May 14, and two more floodgates on May 15 to relieve the floodwaters on the Mississippi River (located to the far right). The spillway channels water from the Mississippi into the Atchafalaya River basin and will alleviate flooding in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, but flood homes, farms, a wildlife refuge and a small oil refinery.

Image Credit: NASA Earth Observatory/EO-1 Team, Text: NASA/Rob Gutro
awesome, CRS. I really wanted to see that exact thing- no idea how to find it. Glad you found it.

My, what a brave new world WU has become.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
EUROSIP from yesterday:


Warm-biased neutral:





Most Cluster toward a nuetral through 2011.



Here is another video from the tornado in tuscaloosa. I have seen many videos but these people are lucky. Warning its in spanish.


Link
The white painted roofs of the lifting crane structures show up very well on the spillway in the satellite photo.

Tnx Aqua, I enjoy poking around finding things and the sharing what I find.

CRS
East bank residents are urged to stay away from Mississippi River levee
Published: Monday, May 16, 2011, 5:36 PM




David Grunfeld, The Times-Picayune

For the sake of increased safety and more efficient inspection and flood- fighting activities, members of the public are asked to stay off the East Jefferson levees while the Mississippi River is at its peak.
Heads up, friends to the West,
a BEAUTIFUL
(almost full)
MOON is
coming to
your
SKY!
O
Quoting Patrap:
Big un,..

Aligator killed on Jefferson Parish Levee

You could get a lot of belts, shoes and purses from that one...
Quoting caneswatch:
Everyone,

My grandmother has just passed away from dementia. I might have to go up north for a bit, so i'll probably be gone for a bit. I please ask you keep all of our family in your prayers.

Canes


You got it!
CRS- yes it was so pretty last night, clear sky, illuminating the windows long after dark, a peaceful glowing blue.

No carp discussion needed- I KNOW gator can be eaten!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Heads up, friends to the West,
a BEAUTIFUL
(almost full)
MOON is
coming to
your
SKY!
O

I'm a couple of miles to your east, (LOL), and it's high up here already.
With some very pretty cloud too.
Real nice.
I want an alligator sandwich. And make it snappy.
Satellite view of Endeavor space shuttle launch



Sorry if its already been posted.
Quoting Patrap:
Big un,..

Aligator killed on Jefferson Parish Levee
Sure hope most of the gators get up on some levees where there AREN'T pple with guns.... lol or even pple at all, for the pple's sake....

316. j2008
Quoting cyclonekid:


Yea I noticed that about the same time. Persistence is the key to the NHC using their yellow crayon. Give it about a day or two to get organized, we might see the crayon pop out then.

I'm hopeing that at the 10 update that they bring the crayon out and put a 30% or so.
Pacific low in 96 hours GFS...
hold on CRS- I have a pic of your moon coming- give me a coupla minutes
Quoting aquak9:
hold on CRS- I have a pic of your moon coming- give me a coupla minutes

Careful, it's a Family Blog, you know....
Our moon, Jacksonville, Florida.

since CRS sent it, I felt I had to share.

Quoting aspectre:
I want an alligator sandwich. And make it snappy.


OK, here it is, but you have to get it out of the truck first. :)
Quoting hydrus:
Pacific low in 96 hours GFS...

That image reminds me of how lucky (relatively speaking) Haiti was last year. From storms and rainfall, anyway.
I hope their luck can run true this year again...
323. txjac
Beautiful Moon ...we'll be seeing it soon! Last night it was simply awesome ..clear skies and the most stars that I have seen from Houston in a long, long time

Thanks for sharing
hahahaha pottery!! :)
Quoting RTLSNK:


OK, here it is, but you have to get it out of the truck first. :)

You do realise that that Gator has THE Towel, right??
Quoting aquak9:
Our moon, Jacksonville, Florida.

since CRS sent it, I felt I had to share.


Lovely.
And may I be the first to say, this is LastInnocentMoon.

It is the last full moon before Season™. A very important moon, I send it to all of you with love and blessings.

May the LastInnocentMoon smile upon all of you.
OMG, pottery!!! they make towels of that pattern too??
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
What?! What shower curtain? Where?!



under your youe Bed
Quoting aquak9:
And may I be the first to say, this is LastInnocentMoon.

It is the last full moon before Season™. A very important moon, I send it to all of you with love and blessings.

May the LastInnocentMoon smile upon all of you.

Thanks.
And I hope that you see the next one, and all of them after that too.
Quoting pottery:

You do realise that that Gator has THE Towel, right??


Yes, you don't suppose, no, it couldn't be his. :)
Quoting pottery:

You do realise that that Gator has THE Towel, right??


Vury sharp eyes, has dat Pottery fella!

I think it has to do with some Elixier he keeps in a jug
(I have been told)
Quoting aquak9:
OMG, pottery!!! they make towels of that pattern too??

Apparently. I never knew that until Snake posted that pic.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Satellite view of Endeavor space shuttle launch



Sorry if its already been posted.
Very cool pic Tom.
Quoting RTLSNK:


Yes, you don't suppose, no, it couldn't be his. :)

Well, if it's his, good riddance to him.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Vury sharp eyes, has dat Pottery fella!

I think it has to do with some Elixier he keeps in a jug
(I have been told)

Ah. But you need to know the Secret Words to mumble along with the sipping.
I'll give you a hint. It starts with 'chee' and ends with 'rs'.
You'll never figure it out.
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Waiting patiently. Can we fast forward 2-3 weeks?



I wish! The Florida wet season is the highlight of my life, and hurricane season, minus the death and destruction part!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Vury sharp eyes, has dat Pottery fella!

I think it has to do with some Elixier he keeps in a jug
(I have been told)
Its all those powerful anti-oxidants in the delicious South American wine that keeps those eyes as sharp as a hawks...Good evening Pott..:)
Quoting hydrus:
Its all those powerful anti-oxidants in the delicious South American wine that keeps those eyes as sharp as a hawks...Good evening Pott..:)

Greetings Hydrus.
A nice shower here earlier dropped nearly 1/2" on my plants (that I had watered this morning!). Never fails. But at least it topped up the tanks to back where they were....
Just enjoying a glass of Chilean Merlot, from Santa Rita. Funny that you mentioned that...
Salud!
Quoting pottery:

Greetings Hydrus.
A nice shower here earlier dropped nearly 1/2" on my plants (that I had watered this morning!). Never fails. But at least it topped up the tanks to back where they were....
Just enjoying a glass of Chilean Merlot, from Santa Rita. Funny that you mentioned that...
Salud!
Its also funny that merlot and burgundy are my favorites..My Great Grandfather was from France not far from the Burgundy Region....
Quoting aquak9:
And may I be the first to say, this is LastInnocentMoon.

It is the last full moon before Season™. A very important moon, I send it to all of you with love and blessings.

May the LastInnocentMoon smile upon all of you.


Thank you Aqua..and may it smile upon you too.
Quoting hydrus:
Its also funny that merlot and burgundy are my favorites..My Great Grandfather was from France not far from the Burgundy Region....

A man of Good Taste, obviously.
:):))
Evening all. That gator towel is the funniest thing I've seen in three weeks. To think someone actually manufactures a bath set of curtain and towel... UGH!!!

Pot, thanks for pointing that out! I'd sent you a fifth of that eye potion if I could. Keep up the good humor.

Buying new shutters for the house this season. I don't know if that's a good omen or not. Usually if I prepare for something, it never happens. Call it Murphys Law for disastrous probabilities if you will, or whatever. (Buy insurance and you'll never need it...)

Based on the new shutters (and nothing else) I say I'm safe for at lest three seasons.
cold air aloft is causing some instability showers to begin developing here on the West Coast of FLorida. This is the first time I can remember getting convection and being able to call it "light convection". Here convection almost always means torrential rain. But when you have a dew point of 59, a temp of 68, and and only a 1.1 PWAT, I guess you can't expect much more! lol

I'm surprised any convection is developing in such a poor environment. Normally you won't see a cloud in the sky here in these conditions. But we actually have shallow, but billowing convection as the sun sets, although ragged in appearance, unlike our normal moist, tropical convection.


Then again, sometimes severe thunderstorms have developed in the northern plains with even less moisture and even cooler temps then this. Its all about the steep lapse rates and upper disturbances, and convergence. The atmosphere can squeeze out a lot more moisture then you think, even "dry air" like we have, given the right atmospheric situations.
Quoting pottery:

Ah. But you need to know the Secret Words to mumble along with the sipping.
I'll give you a hint. It starts with 'chee' and ends with 'rs'.
You'll never figure it out.


...um
By Jove, I think I've got it,

CHEERLEADERS

yup, I'll swig 'n say it with conviction...

and see what improvement in my INsight that brings!

CRS
Quoting MechEngMet:
Evening all. That gator towel is the funniest thing I've seen in three weeks. To think someone actually manufactures a bath set of curtain and towel... UGH!!!

Pot, thanks for pointing that out! I'd sent you a fifth of that eye potion if I could. Keep up the good humor.

Buying new shutters for the house this season. I don't know if that's a good omen or not. Usually if I prepare for something, it never happens. Call it Murphys Law for disastrous probabilities if you will, or whatever. (Buy insurance and you'll never need it...)

Based on the new shutters (and nothing else) I say I'm safe for at lest three seasons.

And shirts to go with it, too.
AHH, Life is so sweet!

You still in VI's ?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...um
By Jove, I think I've got it,

CHEERLEADERS

yup, I'll swig 'n say it with conviction...

and see what improvement in my INsight that brings!

CRS

BRILLIANT!!
But be very careful. Cheerleaders come in bundles.
Or so I am led to believe.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...um
By Jove, I think I've got it,

CHEERLEADERS

yup, I'll swig 'n say it with conviction...

and see what improvement in my INsight that brings!

CRS


Be careful shouting that while hoisting a few CRS. Doing so within 100 ft of a parochial high-school just might get you arrested.
Quoting MechEngMet:


Be careful shouting that while hoisting a few CRS. Doing so within 100 ft of a parochial high-school just might get you arrested.

hahahahahah
very good!
Quoting aquak9:
OMG, pottery!!! they make towels of that pattern too??


By Gorah! I may have found it!

Funky Fish Nautical Shower Curtain
I see...
..it blinds,it blinds,..
Quoting pottery:

And shirts to go with it, too.
AHH, Life is so sweet!

You still in VI's ?


Sadly no. That was a 15th wedding anniversary, back in November '02. Chartered a 40 ft Benetau from Moorings, and sailed for 8 days. Highlights: The Baths, Bitter End YC, Beam Reaching to Anegada, too many to list...

We want to go back, perhaps retire there. Land is still cheap but supplies, well, I'm sure you know...
I LOVE that showercurtain!!!...I have a fish shower curtain now but my fish are bigger!..lol
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


By Gorah! I may have found it!

Funky Fish Nautical Shower Curtain


Is that being marketed as a portable CAT-5 storm deflector, Fukushima nuclear fallout bunker, and EF 6+ shelter?

No? Someone's missing out on a golden opportunity.
Quoting MechEngMet:


Sadly no. That was a 15th wedding anniversary, back in November '02. Chartered a 40 ft Benetau from Moorings, and sailed for 8 days. Highlights: The Baths, Bitter End YC, Beam Reaching to Anegada, too many to list...

We want to go back, perhaps retire there. Land is still cheap but supplies, well, I'm sure you know...

Best option, if finances allow, is to have a place there so you can visit for long periods when you want to.
And rent it out when you are not there.
Those small Islands are very, um, SMALL. In every sense.
USAprimeCreditPeggy:

Can i use my rewards points to go towards my flight in a Hurricane Hunter
Quoting emcf30:
USAprimeCreditPeggy:

Can i use my rewards points to go towards my flight in a Hurricane Hunter


check with Visa under the TRAVEL REWARDS section.
Quoting Jedkins01:
cold air aloft is causing some instability showers to begin developing here on the West Coast of FLorida. This is the first time I can remember getting convection and being able to call it "light convection". Here convection almost always means torrential rain. But when you have a dew point of 59, a temp of 68, and and only a 1.1 PWAT, I guess you can't expect much more! lol

I'm surprised any convection is developing in such a poor environment. Normally you won't see a cloud in the sky here in these conditions. But we actually have shallow, but billowing convection as the sun sets, although ragged in appearance, unlike our normal moist, tropical convection.


Then again, sometimes severe thunderstorms have developed in the northern plains with even less moisture and even cooler temps then this. Its all about the steep lapse rates and upper disturbances, and convergence. The atmosphere can squeeze out a lot more moisture then you think, even "dry air" like we have, given the right atmospheric situations.
Yeah, I was surprised to hear rain outside because of how unfavorable the atmosphere seemed to be for convection today. I'm planning on going island camping off the coast of Tarpon Springs tomorrow night, and unfortunately I don't see the atmosphere being any less favorable for light rain tomorrow evening.
For those who are interested, WU Member 'Barefootontherocks' has a great blog on the floodgates ect in LA (Morganza and all of that) with good discussion going on.
NOAA P-3 flys into the eyewall of Katrina note pronounced "stadium effect"

This is the view Dr. Masters had while with NOAA,on the P-3

Good night all.

Gotta go pour another Bourbon before bed. Busy day tomorrow.
Quoting pottery:

Best option, if finances allow, is to have a place there so you can visit for long periods when you want to.
And rent it out when you are not there.
Those small Islands are very, um, SMALL. In every sense.


yup, yes sir... I remember way back when this small island
ran OUT
of
Barbancourt Rhum!
of course
in years afore that,
back in the 80s
it was normal (sic)
for Providenciales
to run out of gasoline at Christmas/New Years
but that wasn't a problem if we had Rhum.
Mississippi River shooting through Bonnet Carre Spillway faster than expected
Published: Monday, May 16, 2011, 9:05 PM


A week after the opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway, the height and pressure of the Mississippi River is shooting water through the spillway well above its rated capacity.

Even though only 330 of its 350 bays are open, an estimated 316,000 cubic feet of water per second is passing through the control structure, more than the structure's rated capacity of 250,000 cfs, spillway manager Chris Brantley said Monday.

The spillway was designed to divert as much as 250,000 cubic feet of water per second away from New Orleans. It is opened whenever the volume in the river is expected to surpass 1.25 million cubic feet of water per second.

The extra flow is driven by the river's height, he said.

Each cubic foot of water contains 7.48 gallons, which means that more than 1.1 billion gallons of water per hour is moving toward Lake Pontchartrain.

All that water seems to be filling up the 7,600-acre spillway, and parish work crews, along with the corps and state officials, have been shoring up low spots along the levee, particularly on the west side of the U.S. 61 bridge across the spillway.

We're monitoring the levee very closely, and we're seeing freeboard of about 5 feet, with a couple of exceptions, where it's about 3 feet, Brantley said.

St. Charles Parish work crews, with the assistance of the state Department of Transportation and the corps, closed a small portion of the outer eastbound lane of Airline Drive to build a small dirt levee as an additional safety margin.

Another low spot is on the other side of the bridge in the westbound lane, which corps officials are closely monitoring, Brantley said.

Motorists who stop along the highway to watch the fast-moving water are being shooed away, and signs warning motorists not to park on the shoulder of the bridge have been posted.

Brantley said corps hydrologists will calculate river flows to determine whether more bays should be opened Tuesday.

The last time all Bonnet Carre bays were opened was in 1983.
2011 Season Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic




East Pacific




Central Pacific




West Pacific




Indian Ocean




Southern Hem.


Evening folks.

By YUNJI DE NIES, EMILY FRIEDMAN (@EmilyABC) and BEN FORER
May 16, 2011
The Army Corps of Engineers opened two additional gates at the Mississippi River's Morganza Spillway today, unleashing a wall of water which is now flowing into the spillway at a rate greater than that of Niagara Falls, more than 100,000 cubic feet per second.

At that rate it would take just over an hour and a half to cover the entire island of Manhattan in a foot of water. So far only 11 of the 125 gates have been opened and the Corps plans to open more as the river rises.

LinktoABCnewsarticle
Wow, Pat.
Things getting a little hairy there...
Well guys, i'm off to bed. I gotta get up at 3 for the plane ride up there. I won't be on much when i'm there, so i'll see y'all soon.

If you haven't seen the comment I put up earlier, my grandma died earlier today from the effects of dementia. Please keep me and my family in your thoughts and prayers.

Night y'all.
Jindal said the Louisiana State Police, Department of Wildlife & Fisheries and the U.S. Coast Guard are patrolling the Morganza floodway for both wildlife and people. State Police and Coast Guard helicopter flights are equipped with infrared-reading equipment that can detect the heat of humans or animals inside flooded buildings.

The Louisiana National Guard has mobilized 1,100 troops to assist in the emergency, with many assigned to build temporary levees and participate in search and rescue missions.

In St. Mary Parish, Jindal said water from Morganza and the Old River Control Structure will eventually force water east around Morgan City through Bayous Chene, Boeuf and Black, into Lake Palourde and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway.

To block some of the backwater flooding that will cause, state and parish officials are creating a stopper in Bayou Chene: sinking a barge in the middle of the waterway and connecting it to shore with rock and sand. The project has three spud barges and four tugs working to place 17,000 tons of rock, pumps able to pump 14,000 cubic feet per second out of the bayou, and several hundred feet of sheet piling in place.

The sediment-laden water will be diverted south and southwest of Morgan City, where it can help nourish and expand wetlands.

The rising floodwaters already has resulted in three sightings of endangered Louisiana black bears in the Atchafalaya basin, according to Wildlife & Fisheries officials, who urged residents to avoid them and other animals, including deer, turkeys, alligators and snakes attempting to reach high ground.

First Glimmer of Better News from Nola.Com
Quoting caneswatch:
Well guys, i'm off to bed. I gotta get up at 3 for the plane ride up there. I won't be on much when i'm there, so i'll see y'all soon.

If you haven't seen the comment I put up earlier, my grandma died earlier today from the effects of dementia. Please keep me and my family in your thoughts and prayers.

Night y'all.
. I'm very sorry, I hope your family feels better. My grandma just died back in January from cancer--she was only 67 yrs old.
Complete Update





Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yeah, I was surprised to hear rain outside because of how unfavorable the atmosphere seemed to be for convection today. I'm planning on going island camping off the coast of Tarpon Springs tomorrow night, and unfortunately I don't see the atmosphere being any less favorable for light rain tomorrow evening.


yeah tomorrow even colder air aloft will swing in with a vort lobe rotating around the upper low, periods of clouds, sprinkles, and a couple of isolated strong storms are even possible due to steep lapse rates from cold air aloft.

Now we are reminded how much of rain up north falls. Sometimes severe storms in the mountain west and northern plains form under even a lot drier and less favorable thunderstorm weather. But strong forcing from low pressure and cold air aloft can squeeze out even strong convection in a seemingly very harsh convective environment given the situation.


Very cold air aloft over tropical air with lots of heat and deep tropical moisture and wind shear creates horrible weather. Like the brutal outbreak in the deep south.

BTW, if you can ignore some sprinkles, and some clouds and don't mind refreshing weather, you should still enjoy it!!!
Quoting caneswatch:
Well guys, i'm off to bed. I gotta get up at 3 for the plane ride up there. I won't be on much when i'm there, so i'll see y'all soon.

If you haven't seen the comment I put up earlier, my grandma died earlier today from the effects of dementia. Please keep me and my family in your thoughts and prayers.

Night y'all.


Just came on, Canes....I am so very sorry to hear this. I will certainly keep you and your family in my thoughts and prayers. Have a safe trip.

"He who shall not be named's" baby picture
Dewpoints are expected to be in the 30's/40's(after the second frontal passage) tomorrow so it'll get interesting. Wednesday/Thursday guaranteed fire sensitive days.
Reed Timmer on the Leno Show in a few minutes....
The rising floodwaters already has resulted in three sightings of endangered Louisiana black bears in the Atchafalaya basin, according to Wildlife & Fisheries officials, who urged residents to avoid them and other animals, including deer, turkeys, alligators and snakes attempting to reach high ground.

http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/05 /mississippi_river_flooding_mov.html
Damm GFS is spitting out 6" to 10" startng later next week going thru the Memorial Day Holiday for parts of FL. WOW! It looks as if this rainy season is going to be a dousy.
Quoting Chicklit:
Jindal said the Louisiana State Police, Department of Wildlife & Fisheries and the U.S. Coast Guard are patrolling the Morganza floodway for both wildlife and people. State Police and Coast Guard helicopter flights are equipped with infrared-reading equipment that can detect the heat of humans or animals inside flooded buildings.

The Louisiana National Guard has mobilized 1,100 troops to assist in the emergency, with many assigned to build temporary levees and participate in search and rescue missions.

In St. Mary Parish, Jindal said water from Morganza and the Old River Control Structure will eventually force water east around Morgan City through Bayous Chene, Boeuf and Black, into Lake Palourde and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway.

To block some of the backwater flooding that will cause, state and parish officials are creating a stopper in Bayou Chene: sinking a barge in the middle of the waterway and connecting it to shore with rock and sand. The project has three spud barges and four tugs working to place 17,000 tons of rock, pumps able to pump 14,000 cubic feet per second out of the bayou, and several hundred feet of sheet piling in place.

The sediment-laden water will be diverted south and southwest of Morgan City, where it can help nourish and expand wetlands.

The rising floodwaters already has resulted in three sightings of endangered Louisiana black bears in the Atchafalaya basin, according to Wildlife & Fisheries officials, who urged residents to avoid them and other animals, including deer, turkeys, alligators and snakes attempting to reach high ground.

First Glimmer of Better News from Nola.Com


And if you do some research; you'll find out this will cause more flooding in Houma. Houma floods, and maybe, just maybe, Morgan City will be spared.
Cathy (from Louisiana). And if anyone wants to know the correct pronounciation of the basin this is flooding, it is Chafaliya. The A is silent.


Link
Does anyone in the blog, living W or Central Conus have a geiger counter to check if these are inflated news?



(CNN) -- Minuscule levels of radiation from Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant incident have been detected in a widening number of U.S. states, but the Environmental Protection Agency reaffirmed this week that the levels represent no threat to public health.

"To date, data from EPA's real-time radiation air monitoring networks continue to show typical fluctuations in background radiation levels," Jonathan Edwards, director of the EPA's Radiation Protection Division, said in a statement Monday. "The levels we are seeing are far below any levels of concern."

At least 15 states reported detecting radioisotopes in air or water or both. No states have recommended that residents take potassium iodide, a salt that protects the thyroid gland from radioactive iodine.
Quoting caneswatch:
Well guys, i'm off to bed. I gotta get up at 3 for the plane ride up there. I won't be on much when i'm there, so i'll see y'all soon.

If you haven't seen the comment I put up earlier, my grandma died earlier today from the effects of dementia. Please keep me and my family in your thoughts and prayers.

Night y'all.
....sorry for your loss and have aa safe trip brother......
#381, the "overlay" they provide in that video switches up the scales, so they are actually equivalent. Plus the isotopes they are running through those simulations decay kind of fast, so they are not good tracers in the first place.
Our sympathy, caneswatch!
385. IKE
OLDWICK, N.J. May 16 (BestWire) — Recent earnings announcements from global
reinsurers illustrate the damage that record first quarter 2011 catastrophe
losses did to earnings and operating results. The U.S. property/casualty (P/C)
industry, meanwhile, sustained significant catastrophe losses through April.
Insured losses from winter storms and severe thunderstorm and tornado
events—including one outbreak that could represent the industry’s costliest
ever—already are pressuring operating results just before what has been forecast
to be an active Atlantic hurricane season. How insurers manage catastrophe
programs for the remainder of the year will be influenced by pricing and
availability of property catastrophe coverage, as well as emerging views of loss
exposure and whether the rising frequency and severity of storms seen in recent
years is now the norm.

— A.M. Best Co. believes U.S. primary insurers
could face higher reinsurance costs at the upcoming July 1 renewals, given first
quarter 2011 catastrophe losses sustained by global reinsurers and the release
of a new version of Risk Management Solutions Inc.’s wind model, as companies
evaluate the need for additional reinsurance protection.

— Forecasters
predict three to five intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, above the
long-term average of two to three intense storms. One forecaster notes that the
United States has not had a three year stretch without a hurricane landfall
since the 1860s.

— Volatility in property lines related to above normal
frequency and severity of thunderstorms, tornadoes and related events in recent
years continues to pressure the financial results of regional insurers and
single state writers concentrated in the affected states.
386. IKE
5 day QPF...


5 day QPF? That's not very nice.

Is there a 10-day QPF? dare I hope for anything?
388. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
5 day QPF? That's not very nice.

Is there a 10-day QPF? dare I hope for anything?
Aquak...I don't see much of anything for Florida for the next 7-8 days...maybe longer.

................................................. .................................................. ............

Latest GFS showing the next rain chances for you and me in about 10 days...


oh well, I kinda figured as much. we go under a Red Flag warning today- didn't look to see when, or for how long....was too depressing.
390. afj3
Quoting RastaSteve:
Damm GFS is spitting out 6" to 10" startng later next week going thru the Memorial Day Holiday for parts of FL. WOW! It looks as if this rainy season is going to be a dousy.


I'll believe it when I see it.
392. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'll believe it when I see it.
Ditto your thoughts. I don't see it on the latest GFS or ECMWF.

I think it's going to be dry...for at least the next 10 days and then maybe a chance of rain in Florida the last 5 days of the month.

................................................. .................................................. ............

From the Tallahassee,FL. extended discussion.....

"A WARM AND DRY EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON...NEAR 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. NO MENTIONABLE POPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD."
Bone dry in Pensacola.

Good morning.Contrary to Florida, in Puerto Rico,it has been a very wet May so far (Is normally one of the most rainy months) Today will be another unsetteled day here as flood advisories are up early.See my NE Caribbean blog for details.
Quoting IKE:
Ditto your thoughts. I don't see it on the latest GFS or ECMWF.

I think it's going to be dry...for at least the next 10 days and then maybe a chance of rain in Florida the last 5 days of the month.

................................................. .................................................. ............

From the Tallahassee,FL. extended discussion.....

"A WARM AND DRY EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S EACH AFTERNOON...NEAR 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WHILE LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. NO MENTIONABLE POPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD."


It was on the 00Z GFS run. The 06Z is wet as well but not as wet as the previous run. It will be interesting to see what happens next week as PWAT are forecast to rise to 2" to 2.5" across C and S FL. That moist of an atmosphere combined with a very deep SE FLOW could lead to some heavy afternoon thunderstorms starting later next week and there are some hints on the models that thunderstorms could begin popping again in the afternoons come this weekend in S FL and then C FL come early next week.
Funny how people want to over-exaggerate the drought here in FL when Tampa is on pace for one of the wettest 5 months to start the year on record with over 21". Orlando has had nearly 13.5" so far this year which is just slightly above normal. It's S FL that's really dry and could benefit from some afternoon rains this weekend then spreading north.
The daily afternoon rains are about to begin with in the next 10 days so I'm not worried about how dry it is as the rains will come late next week and once they come get ready because we are in for one wet summer with nuetral condtions in place and the presence of the MJO for the first half of June.
Quoting Seawall:


And if anyone wants to know the correct pronounciation [sic] of the basin this is flooding, it is Chafaliya. The A is silent.

Some people leave the A off. That's true. I might drop it from time to time, or maybe I almost skip over it. I also tend to say id'n instead of isn't.

Edit: It id'n right but I don' care.
399. IKE
Tampa....yearly rainfall to-date.....

Year to date precipitation


10.82
 

Orlando International...yearly rainfall to-date.....

Year to date precipitation


12.35

Quoting IKE:
Tampa....yearly rainfall to-date.....

Year to date precipitation


10.82


Orlando International...yearly rainfall to-date.....

Year to date precipitation


12.35



IKE I don't know where you got those numbers from but they are wrong Tampa got 10" in just March alone. Here are the number from Jan thru April. This is not including rain from the past week or so which Orlando has picked up about 1.3 for May so far.

http://www.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/forecast/ytd_r ainfall.html
Tampa has already picked up more than half of what they did for the whole year last year and it's not even the rainy season yet.
Quoting IKE:
Tampa....yearly rainfall to-date.....

Year to date precipitation


10.82
 

Orlando International...yearly rainfall to-date.....

Year to date precipitation


12.35



Jedkins I believe has picked up more like 22" for the year give or take. I remember him saying something about this a couple of weeks back.
403. IKE

Quoting RastaSteve:


IKE I don't know where you got those numbers from but they are wrong Tampa got 10" in just March alone. Here are the number from Jan thru April. This is not including rain from the past week or so which Orlando has picked up about 1.3 for May so far.

http://www.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/forecast/ytd_r ainfall.html
Got them from the airports in Tampa and the one in Orlando.

Here's Orlando International....

http://classic.wunderground.com/history/airport/K MCO/2011/5/17/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&re q_state=NA&req_statename=NA
404. IKE

Quoting RastaSteve:


Jedkins I believe has picked up more like 22" for the year give or take. I remember him saying something about this a couple of weeks back.
I just looked them up and posted what they said. It is what it is.
Quoting IKE:

I just looked them up and posted what they said. It is what it is.


I can tell you those numbers aren't accurate. The Keetch byram numbers are accurate numbers and are from the international aiports.

http://www.fl-dof.com/fire_weather/forecast/ytd_r ainfall.html
Quoting IKE:

I just looked them up and posted what they said. It is what it is.


Well Wunderground is not accurate then maybe that's why I don't pay for a membership here as they have wrong info at times.
Anyways have a good day guys as I have to get back to work.
This is what I am dealing with this morning.

Good Morning.
The very low levels of Sahara Dust right now is pretty unusual for this time of year.
If we accept that dust is part of the recipe for T-Waves off Africa not being able to develop into potential T-Storms, then this is another bad sign for this coming season.

Note that Sahara Dust is NOT proven to be either a detriment or a encouragement to Storm development. Research continues...
But it does seem to me that Dust indicates dry air, and storms would be more likely to have a chance at development in dust-free environments.
This has been the observed norm in the past 5 years or so.
RastaSteve - as for WU being "inaccurate", its not so much a matter of inaccuracy, but more of an issue known as GIGO. Garbage In, Garbage Out. If the PWS stink, the data will stink. WU has the same data feed from airports as the NWS, so they have the same info.

Also, just an observation I know has been made by many, but you've been predicting and talking about "the rainy season" for a good month and a half now. The rains will come when the rains come.
412. P451


24hr WV Imagery. Quite a blocking pattern persisting out in the Atlantic. Has been for about two weeks now.

QPF 5-Day still showing 6" of rain for my area here in SE NY. That's going to be on top of the 1.5" we've already gotten from these few downpours the last few days.

Seems like every rain shower is a downpour regardless of the radar's dbz returns. Very very moist.
413. IKE
Post deleted. Hard to edit on here.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is what I am dealing with this morning.



Spread the wealth!! Florida & Texas needs rain!
Good Morning we had a rare hail storm here in Belize on Sunday with 2 1/2 inch hail i had to miss it all as i was in another village I only saw hail once in Belize when i was like 5 years old.
Copy this into your browser to see a picture of the hail . www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=217621814922972&se t =a.106137452738076.12031.100000254655421&type=1&th eater ">
417. Jax82
Quoting aquak9:
5 day QPF? That's not very nice.

Is there a 10-day QPF? dare I hope for anything?


Well at least the temperature this morning was nice, upper 50s for me on the coast :) We just got rain on Saturday, i know, it spoiled us.
Quoting Jax82:


Well at least the temperature this morning was nice, upper 50s for me on the coast :) We just got rain on Saturday, i know, it spoiled us.


180 hour QPF from the GFS model:

http://ahlquist.met.fsu.edu/research/ensacc/

Jeff Masters
Quoting JeffMasters:


180 hour QPF from the GFS model:

http://ahlquist.met.fsu.edu/research/ensacc/

Jeff Masters
Thanks Jeff! looks like a nice period of precip for Northern California, uh but not really what we were looking for in North Florida!
France in crisis as drought deepens

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/16/us-fran ce-drought-idUSTRE74F3PR20110516

Key West has been so so dry since march. we may have seen about 1.5 inches since then. Please someone send us some rain, even if you have to FedEx it!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting JeffMasters:


180 hour QPF from the GFS model:

http://ahlquist.met.fsu.edu/research/ensacc/

Jeff Masters
So south Texas will stay dry. I tried playing the All Stars rain dance out in my back yard on my laptop, but the grass is still crunching when I walk on it. Sigh.
I would LOVE to see just a teeny-tiny tropical storm come along.
One of the hottest and driest Aprils on record in France has parched farmland and cut water reserves, stoking worries of a drought similar to that experienced in 1976 and fuelling concern harvests will suffer in the European Union's top grain producer.

No substantial rainfall is expected in the next two weeks, weather expert Michele Blanchard told Monday's press conference.

In an interview with Reuters Insider, Meteo France forecaster Michel Daloz said that temperatures would also rise sharply in the next week, boosting groundwater evaporation.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/16/us-fran ce-drought-idUSTRE74F3PR20110516


anyone notice the eastern pacific??
EPAC mischief..
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Spread the wealth!! Florida & Texas needs rain!

Here, here! We had a tiny taste of it with the last front.
Feast or famine so far this year.
Floods, droughts, tornados and wildfires.
My friend in Stuttgart reports unseasonally warm temperatures there for April and May.
I wonder what this all means.
Have a great day everyone.
Live, Love, Laugh, Smile.
Sometimes less is more. :)
Complete Update





428. Jax82
Quoting lhwhelk:
So south Texas will stay dry. I tried playing the All Stars rain dance out in my back yard on my laptop, but the grass is still crunching when I walk on it. Sigh.
I would LOVE to see just a teeny-tiny tropical storm come along.


Anyone else notice the runs are 18-Mar to 25-Mar from the link Dr. Masters posted? Just wondering if there is a current run that i'm not seeing.
Floods, droughts, tornados and wildfires

Means hurricanes to come
Quoting Jax82:


Anyone else notice the runs are 18-Mar to 25-Mar from the link Dr. Masters posted? Just wondering if there is a current run that i'm not seeing.


LOL! Doc posting wrong info? Well it wouldn't be the first time. Here is the correct link below! Come on Doc get a cup of coffee then post.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ namer/gfs/00/index_tpp_m_loop.shtml
431. IKE

Quoting JeffMasters:


180 hour QPF from the GFS model:

http://ahlquist.met.fsu.edu/research/ensacc/

Jeff Masters
Zero here:(
Quoting Jax82:


Anyone else notice the runs are 18-Mar to 25-Mar from the link Dr. Masters posted? Just wondering if there is a current run that i'm not seeing.


Use this link for current

Link

You can also use their link to have it in google earth
Notice the moisture surge coming north from the Caribbean toward the middle to end of the run.
Quoting IKE:

Zero here:(


Wrong info again posted. LOL. March 18 thru 25.
Quoting IKE:

Zero here:(


Your rain should come later next week. hopefully!
Back to work.
Not for me Rasta, no rain
438. mnsky
THank you! labels=1 labels=1 labels=1
439. j2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:
EPAC mischief..

Great glob of convection for something to form out of isnt it?
Quoting RastaSteve:


LOL! Doc posting wrong info? Well it wouldn't be the first time. Here is the correct link below! Come on Doc get a cup of coffee then post.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ namer/gfs/00/index_tpp_m_loop.shtml
Coffee deprivation here too didn't even notice. The link is "good" just apparently the model there hasn't been run for awhile.. Your link isn't fairing any better for us either. got another? I'll have another cup of coffee.
Quoting Rainman32:
Coffee deprivation here too didn't even notice. The link is "good" just apparently the model there hasn't been run for awhile.. Your link isn't fairing any better for us either. got another? I'll have another cup of coffee.


No. LOL! Doc I was just playing by the way as sometimes when I wake up I post wrong things. Coffee works wonders. My granddad drinks it 24 7
Quoting RitaEvac:
Not for me Rasta, no rain


Good Morning Bud! How are you today?
The rains will come when the rains come.

You should copyright that one.

;-)

429. RitaEvac 10:02 AM EDT on May 17, 2011
Floods, droughts, tornados and wildfires

Means hurricanes to come


That is what you said yesterday. I'm still waiting.
Flood warnings were issued for eastern Puerto Rico this morning.
Last vestiges of La Nina are fading away, 3.4 region now up to -0.18!

"EPAC"

I still say that is what Grampa Simpson shouted in the movie.

New England and Mid_Atlantic states are getting copious amounts of rain on already flooded areas. At least 10 states with flood watches...
Quoting USAprimeCreditPeggy:
"EPAC"

I still say that is what Grampa Simpson shouted in the movie.



Perhaps. I don't remember though.
Post #449

About time you showed up.
Quoting FFtrombi:
Last vestiges of La Nina are fading away, 3.4 region now up to -0.18!

Things have been" oscillating " from El-Nino to La-Nina and back again with a notable degree of celerity the past couple of years. Sign of yet another climate altering event.?
Quoting tatoprweather:
Flood warnings were issued for eastern Puerto Rico this morning.
What kind of floods? Flash floods coming down the streams,or low lying land floods?
NEW BLOG
Quoting RastaSteve:
Doc posting wrong info? Well it wouldn't be the first time.

Possibly not--though his record of fails absolutely pales in comparison to yours, you'd have to agree. ;-)
@overwash12:

Flash flooding. We're having some heavy rains as I type this and PR is getting the same or maybe a bit worse. Ground is fairly saturated from last week's torrential rains so things could get hairy but the storm picture doesn't look that bad just yet.
@overwash12:

Flash floods, not overall flooding. Last week we had some torrential rainfalls in the PR/VI area that dropped 4+ inches in under an hour and the ground is fairly well saturated in some areas as a result. Currently (1730 hrs Atlantic Time) we are getting some heavy rain on St. Croix but it is in short bursts. Guts and low-lying areas my experience some temporary flooding or even flash floods in steeper areas. PR will be experiencing the same, but they have more steep mountains and real rivers to deal with the runoff. Should be fine for the most part.