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Unprecedented: Simultaneous January Named Storms in the Atlantic and Central Pacific

By: Jeff Masters 9:46 PM GMT on January 13, 2016

As we ring in the New Year with record to near-record warm temperatures over much of Earth's oceans, we are confronted with something that would have been unimaginable a few decades ago: simultaneous January named storms in both the Atlantic and Central Pacific. The earliest named storm on record in the Central Pacific, Hurricane Pali, formed on January 7, and now the Atlantic has joined the early-season hurricane party, with Subtropical Storm Alex spinning up into history with 50 mph winds in the waters about 785 miles south-southwest of the Azores Islands. The average date of the first named storm in the Atlantic is July 9; the Central Pacific also typically sees its first named storm in July. Alex could retain its subtropical characteristics till as late as Friday, when it will be shooting northward toward Greenland en route to being absorbed in a high-latitude storm. Meanwhile, Pali is predicted to remain a tropical cyclone for at least the next five days, perhaps coming within 2° latitude of the equator--something only two other tropical cyclones in world history have been observed to do--as the storm arcs toward the southwest and eventually back northwest, potentially becoming a typhoon when it crosses the Date Line.


Figure 1. VIIRS visible satellite image of Subtropical Storm Alex on the afternoon of January 13, 2016. Image credit: NASA Worldview.

A January named storm in the Atlantic--how rare?
Alex is just the fourth Atlantic named storm to form in January since record keeping began in 1851. The others:

An unnamed 1938 hurricane became a tropical storm on January 3 well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and lasted until January 6.

Subtropical Storm One of January 18 – 23, 1978 gained subtropical depression status over waters of about 75 °F (24 °C) about 1,700 miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Storm One of 1951 was a tropical storm from January 4 - 9 in the waters a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. This was likely really a subtropical storm.

Two other named storms that formed in late December managed to last into January--Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on December 30, 2005 and survived until January 7, 2006, west of the Cape Verde Islands, and Hurricane Alice, which formed on December 30, 1954, and tracked west-southwest into the Caribbean, where it dissipated on January 7, 1955.

Alex's genesis
Alex can trace its genesis to an area of low pressure that formed off the Southeast U.S. coast on January 7. Between January 8 and 12, pre-Alex tracked generally eastwards over ocean waters that were 22 - 25°C (72 - 77°F); these temperatures were near-record warm for this time of year (about 2 - 4°F above average). These temperatures were just high enough so that Alex was able to gradually gain a warm core and become a subtropical storm. It is unlikely that Alex would have formed if these waters had been close to normal temperatures for this time of year. The unusually warm waters for Alex were due, in part, to the high levels of global warming that brought Earth its warmest year on record in 2015. Global warming made Alex's formation much more likely to occur, and the same can be said for the formation of Hurricane Pali in the Central Pacific. To get both of these storms simultaneously in January is something that would have had a vanishingly small probability more than 30 years ago, before global warming really began to ramp up.


Figure 2. MODIS visible satellite image of Hurricane Pali taken on the afternoon of January 12, 2016. At the time, Pali was at peak strength--a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It certainly suggests a human-caused global warming amplification of an El Nino.

Uncharted waters.
Would it be possible for a cyclone to cross the Equator and retain its original direction of rotation, even against the Coriolis Effect? Are we about to find out?
Thanks for the new post Dr. Masters....
Global warming made Alex's formation much more likely to occur, and the same can be said for the formation of Hurricane Pali in the Central Pacific.

Exactly what I meant by my "Here comes the global warming post" comment.
Amazing, Just amazing.
I'm so glad I am awake and able to read this historic report.
If somebody had said that this would occur in an El Nino season, who on Earth would have believed them?

Thank you so much Dr Masters for being so informative about this weeks events, especially concerning the formation and track of Alex.

"How long is it to the official start of hurricane season?"
Quoting 2. BayFog:

Would it be possible for a cyclone to cross the Equator and retain its original direction of rotation, even against the Coriolis Effect? Are we about to find out?



In theory, the equator is really just a line..the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone equator fluctuates constantly.
What if the Greek letters run out in 2016? What do we do? Is there any escape plan?
Quoting 7. JrWeathermanFL:



In theory, the equator is really just a line..the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone equator fluctuates constantly.

The Equator is more than just a theoretical line. It's the line where the surface rotation of the Earth is greatest. A gradient wind will shift direction north and south of it. So if the ITCZ is north of the Equator, southern hemisphere SE trades become SW upon crossing the Equator.
Quoting 2. BayFog:

Would it be possible for a cyclone to cross the Equator and retain its original direction of rotation, even against the Coriolis Effect? Are we about to find out?

I guess it boils down to whether the centripetal force is stronger than the Coriolis Effect. If there is more than enough convection to keep the storm spinning even with the Earths rotation working against it, then it would likely survive until it was far enough from the equator to be overcome by the Earths rotation.. The Coriolis Effect is not that strong near the equator, that is why most storms form north or south of 10 degrees.
Quoting 5. JrWeathermanFL:

Global warming made Alex's formation much more likely to occur, and the same can be said for the formation of Hurricane Pali in the Central Pacific.

Exactly what I meant by my "Here comes the global warming post" comment.

Agreed. Maybe a case could be made for Pali, but I'm not seeing the connection with Alex.

Quoting 6. PlazaRed:

Amazing, Just amazing.
I'm so glad I am awake and able to read this historic report.
If somebody had said that this would occur in an El Nino season, who on Earth would have believed them?

Thank you so much Dr Masters for being so informative about this weeks events, especially concerning the formation and track of Alex.

How long is it to the official start of hurricane season?

A little under 6 months--June 1. :)
Are we shooting for Bonnie before the end of January :P
This is unbelieveble, is not every year...actually i think this is the 1st time that both hurricane seasons started in January:




O_O

Quoting 2. BayFog:

Would it be possible for a cyclone to cross the Equator and retain its original direction of rotation, even against the Coriolis Effect? Are we about to find out?


If Pali gets to within 2 degrees of the Equator then at least some percentage of it will already be in the Southern hemisphere.
The possibility of the whole eye of the system crossing the Equator is probably very slight.

Meanwhile it seems that the Alex system is going just the right way to cause the minimum problems after all its a good job that there is no recurving towards Florida in January.

Hence:-
Tropical storm/hurricane warning on the beaches of southern Greenland.
People are to be warned to build hurricane proof igloos ASAP.

Whatever next in this crazy world? We are only at about 402 PPM with this el Nino, what happens when the next one comes creeping up out of the depths at maybe 420 PPM?
Quoting 12. JrWeathermanFL:

Are we shooting for Bonnie before the end of January :P
Way things are going, we may do away with having an actual hurricane season, just like the West Pacific.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters. I'm ceasing to be amazed at all the new weather stuff happening. No more hurricane season.........................Say whattttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt?!
Quoting 8. Uragani:

What if the Greek letters run out in 2016? What do we do? Is there any escape plan?
yeah we go backward with the same lists


thanks doc for the update off season holidays are over for a few days

Quoting 10. hydrus:

I guess it boils down to whether the centripetal force is stronger than the Coriolis Effect. If there is more than enough convection to keep the storm spinning even with the Earths rotation working against it, then it would likely survive until it was far enough from the equator to be overcome by the Earths rotation.. The Coriolis Effect is not that strong near the equator, that is why most storms form north or south of 10 degrees.


May the force be with you!
Quoting 16. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks for the update Dr Masters. I'm ceasing to be amazed at all the new weather stuff happening. No more hurricane season.........................Say whattttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt?!
there will still be a hurricane season it will just run 365 days of the year
Quoting 12. JrWeathermanFL:

Are we shooting for Bonnie before the end of January :P


Now don't be silly!
Thanks Doc,2015 did not follow all the rules of a strong el nino (active MDR).The sst in the Atlantic right now are equivalent to what we would see in April or early May and are at record levels.It will be interesting with the models showing a la nina by September to see how these storms use these waters and if the upper levels will cooperate.I'm not expecting no 2005 but it could be a interesting cane season.
Thanks, doc, for the untimely TS-post! And poor Bob: his in-depth-post about El-Nino-research didn't last long due to premature Alex.


Alex today (saved). Airmass loop from the last blog here.




Hey, one model even calls for a hurricane, lol.
well I guess in early may we get our second named storm maybe
This is the only league (I love it) where no one is amazed or surprised by the panoply of changes in our climate. Hope we won't be bewildered by the oceanographic impacts on the biota... which will surely manifest soon-come. I dearly hope this band will keep as cool facing the challenge.
From the NWS concerning Sundays *possible storm

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.

12Z GFS/GEFS CAMP MORE QUICKLY EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALLOWING PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS DEVELOPS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AMPLE COLD AIR FEEDING INTO IT. THIS
COULD OFFER A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO OUR AREA. LAST NIGHT`S
00Z EC MEAN AND TODAY`S 12Z OPER ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WITH NO PHASING OR COASTAL LOW. INSTEAD
IT HAS A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO THE
SETUP OBSERVED TUESDAY. 12Z CMC/JMA ARE SIMILAR TO 12Z GFS AT 500
MB BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND HAVE NO REAL COASTAL REFLECTION
EITHER. 12Z UKMET HAS A STRONG COASTAL LOW BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
TELECONNECTIONS SHOW A STRONG -AO WITH A MODERATELY -NAO BOTH
TRENDING ABRUPTLY POSITIVE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HISTORICALLY THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE OUR GREATER CHANCE OF A WINTER
STORM...BUT THE CARDS STILL HAVE TO FALL IN THE RIGHT PLACES.
Update on the latest Australian heatwave:
See the moment the Spirit of Tasmania breaks its moorings after freak storm
January 14 2016
No one could have predicted the Victorian heatwave to end with this – at sunset last night, the Port of Melbourne was hit by a storm that knocked the Spirit of Tasmania II free from its moorings with passengers on board. ...
Quoting 22. barbamz:

Thanks, doc, for the untimely TS-post! And poor Bob: his in-depth-post about El-Nino-research didn't last long due to premature Alex.


Alex today (saved). Airmass loop from the last blog here.




I wonder how much an impact that this event could be for the area projected for it to hit - I'm sure the further north it tracks, the more of impact it has?

Greenland "cold spot" and ice sheet health are things I'm looking at in terms of "impacts".

In any case....amazing developments.
Quoting 25. washingtonian115:

From the NWS concerning Sundays *possible storm

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.

12Z GFS/GEFS CAMP MORE QUICKLY EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALLOWING PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS DEVELOPS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AMPLE COLD AIR FEEDING INTO IT. THIS
COULD OFFER A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO OUR AREA. LAST NIGHT`S
00Z EC MEAN AND TODAY`S 12Z OPER ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WITH NO PHASING OR COASTAL LOW. INSTEAD
IT HAS A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO THE
SETUP OBSERVED TUESDAY. 12Z CMC/JMA ARE SIMILAR TO 12Z GFS AT 500
MB BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND HAVE NO REAL COASTAL REFLECTION
EITHER. 12Z UKMET HAS A STRONG COASTAL LOW BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
TELECONNECTIONS SHOW A STRONG -AO WITH A MODERATELY -NAO BOTH
TRENDING ABRUPTLY POSITIVE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HISTORICALLY THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE OUR GREATER CHANCE OF A WINTER
STORM...BUT THE CARDS STILL HAVE TO FALL IN THE RIGHT PLACES.
I love winter...I do...
What is going on globally is truly something amazing, and we can mostly thank El Nino for it IMHO. Starting with Alex, I remember its origins spinning back in north central Cuba, from the Key west radar. Something else, is the track and also like Alex, is the early formation of Pali. Lastly 98P, which has been predicted by most of the global models for a couple of days now, to organize and strengthen. IMO this super WWB has really helped with the formation of Ula, Pali and 98P.

Alex





Pali





98P

Quoting 27. CraigsIsland:


I wonder how much an impact that this event could be for the area projected for it to hit - I'm sure the further north it tracks, the more of impact it has?

A bit of a breeze (lol) for the southern tip of Greenland. Go here and click "Animation" for an easy loop of gale force winds (according to GFS).
I decided to make a note with some records that have been established today in the Western Hemisphere:

- It is the first time that tropical / subtropical cyclones are named in simultaneous activity in Hurricane Season in the Atlantic and Pacific in January.
- It is the first time that a storm is named in January in the Atlantic.
- It is the first time that the two hurricane seasons (Pacific and North Atlantic) start in January at the same time (almost).
- It is the first time in history that two tropical / subtropical cyclones are in simultaneous activity outside the period that determines the hurricane season (May 15 - November 30).
- For the first time since 2012 that both hurricane seasons begin before the date which marks the beginning.
- Alex is the first tropical cyclone / subtropical to form in January since 1978.
- Alex is only the 4th tropical / subtropical cyclone on record to form in January.
- Only 2 other tropical / subtropical cyclone formed before Alex; Hurricane "1" on January 3, 1938 and Tropical Storm "1" on January 4, 1951; So Alex is the 3rd earliest formation of a tropical cyclone / subtropical Atlantic.
- Alex is the earliest named storm in the Atlantic, the previous record was the Tropical Storm Ana in April 20th 2003.
- Alex is the earliest formation of a subtropical cyclone in the history of the North Atlantic.

We also can observe that Pali now is the strongest storm ever recorded in January in the Central or Eastearn Pacific and Alex is the 2nd strongest storm by pressure and the 4th strongest storm by wind speed:

- 1 st : Alice - 90 mph 980 mbar - 1955
- 2nd: 01 - 80 mph 992 mbar - 1938
- 3rd: Zeta - 65 mph 994 mbar - 2006
- 4th: Alex - 50 mph 990 mbar - 2016
- 5th: 01 - 45 mph 1002 mbar - 1978




BloombergBusiness Happy Face
The Good News on Global Warming: We've Delayed the Next Ice Age

Yeehaa... No, wait...

(Well at least the stock market is ... uh, never mind)
80 degree water off the east coast of North Carolina. Thanks to 5C above average anomalies over the Gulf Stream



image credit: tropicaltidbits.
Quoting 33. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Glad to see Nor Cal getting rain! Soo Cal forecast is dry thru at least til the middle of next week :(
Quoting 30. barbamz:


A bit of a breeze (lol) for the southern tip of Greenland. Go here and click "Animation" for an easy loop of gale force winds (according to GFS).


wow. thanks. bookmarked :)

amazing weather these days.

faster and faster. that snowball grows
Quoting 31. pablosyn:

I decided to make a note with some records that have been established today in the Western Hemisphere:

- It is the first time that tropical / subtropical cyclones are named in simultaneous activity in Hurricane Season in the Atlantic and Pacific in January.
- It is the first time that a storm is named in January in the Atlantic.
- It is the first time that the two hurricane seasons (Pacific and North Atlantic) start in January at the same time (almost).
- It is the first time in history that two tropical / subtropical cyclones are in simultaneous activity outside the period that determines the hurricane season (May 15 - November 30).
- For the first time since 2012 that both hurricane seasons begin before the date which marks the beginning.
- Alex is the first tropical cyclone / subtropical to form in January since 1978.
- Alex is only the 4th tropical / subtropical cyclone on record to form in January.
- Only 2 other tropical / subtropical cyclone formed before Alex; Hurricane "1" on January 3, 1938 and Tropical Storm "1" on January 4, 1951; So Alex is the 3rd earliest formation of a tropical cyclone / subtropical Atlantic.
- Alex is the earliest named storm in the Atlantic, the previous record was the Tropical Storm Ana in April 20th 2003.
- Alex is the earliest formation of a subtropical cyclone in the history of the North Atlantic.

We also can observe that Pali now is the strongest storm ever recorded in January in the Central or Eastearn Pacific and Alex is the 2nd strongest storm by pressure and the 4th strongest storm by wind speed:

- 1 st : Alice - 90 mph 980 mbar - 1955
- 2nd: 01 - 80 mph 992 mbar - 1938
- 3rd: Zeta - 65 mph 994 mbar - 2006
- 4th: Alex - 50 mph 990 mbar - 2016
- 5th: 01 - 45 mph 1002 mbar - 1978





In the satellite era only.
Possible Severe Weather Thursday Night into Friday for Florida. The southern jet stream is ripping. We'll have to see if temps can increase enough to contribute to additional instability.
Quoting 38. CaneWatcher1:

Possible Severe Weather Thursday Night into Friday for Florida. The southern jet stream is ripping. We'll have to see if temps can increase enough to contribute to additional instability.


I was thinking the same thing about the temperatures needing to warm up, but temperatures are expected to get back in the 70s by Friday here in Fort Myers. Currently we're sitting at 58 chilly degrees right now in Fort Myers.

Saturday, prior to the EF2 Tornado, it was very humid (sticky) and warm here. I was outside watching the lightning and crazy blackish/green sky. You could tell a nasty storm was coming.
40. vis0

Quoting 6. PlazaRed:

Amazing, Just amazing.
I'm so glad I am awake and able to read this historic report.
If somebody had said that this would occur in an El Nino season, who on Earth would have believed them?

Thank you so much Dr Masters for being so informative about this weeks events, especially concerning the formation and track of Alex.

How long is it to the official start of hurricane season?

Quoting 8. Uragani:

What if the Greek letters run out in 2016? What do we do? Is there any escape plan?
reply on last blog was we recycle the same names just add v 2.0 as Alex v2.0...Zeta v2.0 etc etc v2.0...sounds real don't it. Ask the respected veterans they should know.
Quoting 29. 882MB:

What is going on globally is truly something amazing, and we can mostly thank El Nino for it IMHO. Starting with Alex, I remember its origins spinning back in north central Cuba, from the Key west radar.


So far my understanding of Alex's goes, the above mentioned near-record warming temperatures in the Atlantic was a contributor and
the active MJO over the Atlantic, i.e. phase 8 (which means that the MJO is/was just active near Cuba, indeed) and now phase 1 is also supportive. MJO Dec 4 2015 to now and forecast to Jan 27 and graphics of
MJO-phases
TC Pali.......most top left blob in a blobby neighborhood.

Quoting 5. JrWeathermanFL:

Global warming made Alex's formation much more likely to occur, and the same can be said for the formation of Hurricane Pali in the Central Pacific.

Exactly what I meant by my "Here comes the global warming post" comment.
Their is no proof at all that climate change caused these two storms or any other tropical cyclones, At the most their only a couple theories circulating on a few blogs.

Quoting 25. washingtonian115:

From the NWS concerning Sundays *possible storm

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.

12Z GFS/GEFS CAMP MORE QUICKLY EJECT SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALLOWING PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS DEVELOPS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AMPLE COLD AIR FEEDING INTO IT. THIS
COULD OFFER A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO OUR AREA. LAST NIGHT`S
00Z EC MEAN AND TODAY`S 12Z OPER ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WITH NO PHASING OR COASTAL LOW. INSTEAD
IT HAS A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH SNOW SHOWERS SIMILAR TO THE
SETUP OBSERVED TUESDAY. 12Z CMC/JMA ARE SIMILAR TO 12Z GFS AT 500
MB BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND HAVE NO REAL COASTAL REFLECTION
EITHER. 12Z UKMET HAS A STRONG COASTAL LOW BUT FURTHER OFFSHORE.
TELECONNECTIONS SHOW A STRONG -AO WITH A MODERATELY -NAO BOTH
TRENDING ABRUPTLY POSITIVE HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HISTORICALLY THIS IS WHEN WE HAVE OUR GREATER CHANCE OF A WINTER
STORM...BUT THE CARDS STILL HAVE TO FALL IN THE RIGHT PLACES.
The cold air will be established, if a storm does come and meet it.
Quoting 39. Sfloridacat5:



I was thinking the same thing about the temperatures needing to warm up, but temperatures are expected to get back in the 70s by Friday here in Fort Myers. Currently we're sitting at 58 chilly degrees right now in Fort Myers.

Saturday, prior to the EF2 Tornado, it was very humid (sticky) and warm here. I was outside watching the lightning and crazy blackish/green sky. You could tell a nasty storm was coming.



Temperatures should warm up plenty, but the main issue will be that low level instability is expected to not be enough for the more notable severe weather threat that I was mentioning the last couple days. That is because it doesn't appear there will be any cap in the atmosphere, so that means there will likely be a lot of rain and competing cells to lower instability and thus the severe chances.

Though the severe threat will still exist given that models have not backed off on the amount of shear and upper support. Given that a few severe cells are still possible. The NWS in Ruskin notes that forecasting low level instability can be a bit tricky though, and should the instability be higher, the severe threat could be easily more widespread.

The recent event where cells in Ft. Myers that led to the severe weather including the EF-2 tornado were in the only area that had decent CAPE. Every other area north of there had simply too low of low level instability for a notable damaging wind and tornado threat.
Quoting 2. BayFog:

Would it be possible for a cyclone to cross the Equator and retain its original direction of rotation, even against the Coriolis Effect? Are we about to find out?



There's been a few spins that have been seen crossing the equator, what happens is that they slowly spin down until dissipation. So yes, it is possible. It just wouldn't last.
Quoting 42. ChateauChalon:



So far my understanding of Alex's goes, the above mentioned near-record warming temperatures in the Atlantic was a contributor and
the active MJO over the Atlantic, i.e. phase 8 (which means that the MJO is/was just active near Cuba, indeed) and now phase 1 is also supportive. MJO Dec 4 2015 to now and forecast to Jan 27 and graphics of
MJO-phases

compare atlantic sst's same date jan 13 2015/2016

I wonder how the steering currents will be like this season.
Quoting 11. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Agreed. Maybe a case could be made for Pali, but I'm not seeing the connection with Alex.


A little under 6 months--June 1. :)


Opposite. I could see a case for Alex (record warm waters and location of formation), but Pali is a little more tough, what with the massive El Nino out there.

I would still tend to side with Doc on both, however.
51. vis0
Quoting 48. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


compare atlantic sst's same date jan 13 2015/2016


why is the water on fire around Florida :- P

Ah but there are benefits of a warmer ocean as::

In a few centuries we will no longer need Mr. Coffee makers, either just dip your java in the Ocean wait a few minutes ahhhhhh almost fresh coffee or wait for the Starbucks container / largest drum coffee table named mobey-dick-Latte and when the ship enters port from Brazil to Florida the coffee will be piping hot.
Quoting 8. Uragani:

What if the Greek letters run out in 2016? What do we do? Is there any escape plan?


uhm, after all there are 21 greek letters, which leaves us to 45 potential names, and only the
Pacific typhoon season of 1964 got somehow close to this number with 39 named systems, so there is no need to be worried about the Atlantic. ;-) The naming system of the Pacific typhoon season is based on 5 rotational lists, which can be used throughout the years.
Quoting 44. NativeSun:

Their is no proof at all that climate change caused these two storms or any other tropical cyclones, At the most their only a couple theories circulating on a few blogs.


I think it was the turnip in the soup
might of been bad causing these
figments of our imagination
to come about from some digestive upset maybe

stop eating the bad soup maybe
Quoting 51. vis0:


why is the water on fire around Florida :- P

lack of true cold fronts maybe the slight cooling this past couple of days will cool it down just a tad
2100 just called. They said they want their planet back. They also had some choice words for Exxon Mobil.
nw carb is primed to produce sst's wise and tchp wise as well
Quoting 48. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


compare atlantic sst's same date jan 13 2015/2016




yes, the anomaly charts also show the decent heat in the Gulf of Mexico and the warmer than normal Atlantic waters between the Capverde Islands and the Azores:


Link
May someone post the current TCHP maps please?
One of my favorite Hurricane satellite loops. For some reason very aesthetically pleasing.Such a beautiful presentation and they cause such death and destruction.

So, with warmer SSTs projected in the future, will there be stronger hurricanes, farther north on the Atlantic coast than we are used to now?
Quoting 60. annabatic:

So, with warmer SSTs projected in the future, will there be stronger hurricanes, farther north on the Atlantic coast than we are used to now?


Greenland and Iceland are now "target rich environments" for hurricanes, except they will still be hurricanes when they get there. At least they are lower population clusters.
Quoting 2. BayFog:

Would it be possible for a cyclone to cross the Equator and retain its original direction of rotation, even against the Coriolis Effect? Are we about to find out?



Yes. The coriolis parameter is a continuous smooth function of latitude scaling with the sine of the latitude. There is no sudden shock as a circulation crosses the equator. Spin in equatorial regions comes from horizontal wind shear, not planetary rotation and a westerly wind burst will create counterclockwise spin on its northern edge and clockwise spin on its southern edge. In the southern hemisphere clockwise is "cyclonic" Pali formed in such an area of horizontal shear. It's the only way to get spin in equatorial regions.

The balance of forces is between centrifugal force out and the pressure gradient force in. This is called cyclostrophic balance. If steering takes the storm across the equator, it is dynamically plausible for its circulation to survive.

Short answer. yes it can cross the equator without dissipating.

Quoting 61. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Greenland and Iceland are now "target rich environments" for hurricanes, except they will still be hurricanes when they get there. At least they are lower population clusters.


Most tropical cyclones including whatever Alex is, will encounter temperature gradient and transition to baroclinic systems that far north. Alex in particular will be caught up by a strong midlatitude trough.
Quoting 50. Astrometeor:



Opposite. I could see a case for Alex (record warm waters and location of formation), but Pali is a little more tough, what with the massive El Nino out there.

I would still tend to side with Doc on both, however.

How is the location of formation any indication that global warming is involved? If a tropical cyclone is going to form in the off season, history suggests it's most likely going to be in the subtropics.

Alex formed from the transition from extratropical --> subtropical. Even if waters are slightly above average south of the Azores, they're still well below the heralded 26C needed for tropical formation. Alex's genesis can be more attributed to increased marine instability.

Pali formed over record warm ocean temperatures, but it formed away from the equator. El Nino may have had some effect on the SSTs in the region, but a warmer background state may have helped more.
Quoting 61. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Greenland and Iceland are now "target rich environments" for hurricanes, except they will still be hurricanes when they get there. At least they are lower population clusters.


Mostly I was wondering about New York city and New England...

Wow. Positive SSTs predicted across entire Atlantic next September
Quoting 62. georgevandenberghe:



Yes. The coriolis parameter is a continuous smooth function of latitude scaling with the sine of the latitude. There is no sudden shock as a circulation crosses the equator. Spin in equatorial regions comes from horizontal wind shear, not planetary rotation and a westerly wind burst will create counterclockwise spin on its northern edge and clockwise spin on its southern edge. In the southern hemisphere clockwise is "cyclonic" Pali formed in such an area of horizontal shear. It's the only way to get spin in equatorial regions.

The balance of forces is between centrifugal force out and the pressure gradient force in. This is called cyclostrophic balance. If steering takes the storm across the equator, it is dynamically plausible for its circulation to survive.

Short answer. yes it can cross the equator without dissipating.



That mostly sounds about right. I'm thinking that angular momentum would also tend to keep the cyclone spinning in its original direction.

Although Pali seems to have initiated its rotation as you describe, as a WWB moved out just south of the Equator, wouldn't a cyclone that initiated more conventionally also retain its circulation if it crossed the Equator? In other words, how a storm initiates rotation isn't what determines its trans-equatorial persistance?
Quoting 64. TropicalAnalystwx13:


How is the location of formation any indication that global warming is involved? If a tropical cyclone is going to form in the off season, history suggests it's most likely in the subtropics.

Alex formed from the transition from extratropical --> subtropical. Even if waters are slightly above average south of the Azores, they're still well below the heralded 26C needed for tropical formation. Alex's genesis can be more attributed to increased marine instability.


Exactly. Would the other January cyclones be blamed on GW?
Quoting 63. georgevandenberghe:



Most tropical cyclones including whatever Alex is, will encounter temperature gradient and transition to baroclinic systems that far north. Alex in particular will be caught up by a strong midlatitude trough.


And if the water temps keep rising to where 26-28C is the norm instead of 18-22? A possible longer term issue? Where is it all headed? No answers now as not enough data probably but down the road a piece it might become more clear.
Reading the NWS discussion from Ruskin, looks like the threat for severe weather has diminished a bit but still there.
Quoting 66. HurricaneFan:


Wow. Positive SSTs predicted across entire Atlantic next September


See them dark reds heading south by Greenland and Iceland? What will be the norm and anomalies in 100,200 or 300 years?
Quoting 64. TropicalAnalystwx13:


How is the location of formation any indication that global warming is involved? If a tropical cyclone is going to form in the off season, history suggests it's most likely in the subtropics.

Alex formed from the transition from extratropical --> subtropical. Even if waters are slightly above average south of the Azores, they're still well below the heralded 26C needed for tropical formation. Alex's genesis can be more attributed to increased marine instability.


Do I win Cody? (comment #35)
Quoting 28. hydrus:

I love winter...I do...

We noticed.
Quoting 63. georgevandenberghe:



Most tropical cyclones including whatever Alex is, will encounter temperature gradient and transition to baroclinic systems that far north. Alex in particular will be caught up by a strong midlatitude trough.

Right now it looks like it's headed toward the Iberian Peninsula. It's certainly directing a flow of deep subtropical air toward Europe, or at least is attached to such a flow. I see however that the Euro model has a ridge blocking the way, shunting the storm northward into a larger system over the North Atlantic.
I found the maps on this website
Link
If something analogous to Alex was in an analogous position in the Eastern Pacific, California could be looking at the mother of all deluges headed its way. If Alex can exist at all, why not?
Quoting 66. HurricaneFan:


Wow. Positive SSTs predicted across entire Atlantic next September
That's a very negative AMO
Certainly a bit odd seeing this in the Atlantic on January 13th.

Quoting 8. Uragani:

What if the Greek letters run out in 2016? What do we do? Is there any escape plan?


Maybe Hebrew letters would be used next, as Greek letters and Hebrew letters are both used in math. It's conceivable that some Greek letters could be retired as storm names eventually.

The parade continues. Tomorrow's system knocking on the door.
Quoting 52. ChateauChalon:



uhm, after all there are 21 greek letters, which leaves us to 45 potential names, and only the
Pacific typhoon season of 1964 got somehow close to this number with 39 named systems, so there is no need to be worried about the Atlantic. ;-) The naming system of the Pacific typhoon season is based on 5 rotational lists, which can be used throughout the years.


There are 24 letters in the Greek alphabet.
Much as I am a believer in AGW, I join Cody in disagreeing with the idea that it made the formation of Alex "much more likely". Given it's the first since 1978, before which there were 2 known others, maybe more unknown ones. Hardly noteworthy. An interesting anomaly, but not the sort of thing meteorologists should be immediately linking to AGW. Even Pali is a marginal case, more a result of the El Nino, but I can agree with AGW as at least a contributing factor there, sort of like how El Nino will ensure 2015 as warmest year on record, but with a definite boost from AGW.

This microwave pass is a few hours old, but gives an idea of the organization of Alex's core. Looks tropical.



Action north and south of Hawaii. For now, the Magic Force Field is keeping them high and dry.

Interesting little thunderstorm cluster in the center can be seen in the loop crossing the Equator from north to south.
Subtropical Storm Alex named in the Atlantic Basin - Jan 13, 2016!

It appears the storm is getting better organized this evening, with a well defined CDO.

Would not be surprised to see the winds increase above the current 50MPH. With pressures at 990mb, it is looking more like a hurricane with an eye on the VIS satellite!
Quoting 86. BayFog:



Action north and south of Hawaii. For now, the Magic Force Field is keeping them high and dry.

Interesting little thunderstorm cluster in the center can be seen in the loop crossing the Equator from north to south.


I guess it and Pali are just gonna dance around each other to show the universe that the laws of nature are irrelevant.
I know most of you will disagree, but I don't believe in man-made climate change either, nor do I think it caused Alex. It just doesn't seem possible that humans can make the planet significantly warmer in 100 years. Climate oscillates, and we have had much warmer periods in the past.
Subtropical Storm ALEX
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 14, 2016:

Location: 27.9°N 30.4°W
Maximum Winds: 50 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 500 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
Quoting 89. HurricaneFan:

I know most of you will disagree, but I don't believe in man-made climate change either, nor do I think it caused Alex. It just doesn't seem possible that humans can make the planet significantly warmer in 100 years. Climate oscillates, and we have had much warmer periods in the past.


Do you believe that humans have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to increase by about 40%?

Do you believe that significantly increasing the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration can result in global warming? Periods that were much warmer in the past (that you referred to) generally correspond to times when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was higher.

In any case, science is based on evidence, not on belief.
Quoting 81. BayFog:


The parade continues. Tomorrow's system knocking on the door.


Glad Nor Cal is getting some........would be nice to fill our largest water storage at Lake Shasta.......but looks BONE-DRY for at least a week down here in Soo Cal.
Quoting 90. Andrebrooks:

Subtropical Storm ALEX
As of 00:00 UTC Jan 14, 2016:

Location: 27.9°N 30.4°W
Maximum Winds: 50 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 500 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A



Hey Andre........any exciting weather in LA for you yet?
95. vis0

Quoting 61. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Greenland and Iceland are now "target rich environments" for hurricanes, except they will still be hurricanes when they get there. At least they are lower population clusters.
actually yer half correct, Higher population area as due to aGW people in Florida move to Maryland, those in NYC to Massachusetts move to "New Newfoundland" (Sinatra's tune will be remixed to sing they named it twice " 'ol New New". All that poleward moving to cool off even though we know will get hit by TS in Newfoundland its better in some peoples minds than paying exorbitant fees for AC in Florida.or anywhere south of Md. ...not to mention by then Florida is being hit with destructive Hurricanes every 15-20 years and who wants to keep rebuilding WITHIN their own lifetime.  The UsofA will merge with Canada become United States of Amanda. Weatherwise the Devils triangle will shift over what today is known as sar2401 backyard and people will come from afar to watch it pour all over Bama except sar2401 backyard, then recieve enough rain in 3 days to float noahs ark onto the moon.
Rumpelstiltskin
36 DEGREES today! It is supposed to be WINTER! 36 degrees is spring, not winter.

I walked in this morning, it was 5 degrees. No wind. I noticed the insides of my mittens were wet when I took them off. By the time I got in, (About a 30 minute walk, 2 miles) I had my extra hat off, my full face knit cap off and my coat unzipped.

Walking home, the weather was so nice, I walked the levee along the river. The first 3/4 mile is not plowed, so the snow is about a foot deep, but the deer have made some tracks along the levee, so it wasn't too bad. By the time I made the golf course, even though the sun was setting the temp was dropping, the hats were off and the mittens had lasted about 5 minutes and then only the thin Cat nylon gloves were on.

The 3 mile walk took closer to 50 or 55 minutes. Deep snow will really slow you down.

Cheers
Qazulight
In another anomaly, Greenland is warmer than Iceland, and Chicago is colder than either, except for Thursday, Friday. We in Chicago are on a roller coaster from 0° F. this morning to 38° tomorrow morning 40° on Friday, then back down to -5° F. on Saturday/Sunday. The cold air is harsh when the wind blows, but the winter as a whole doesn't seem harsh when it doesn't stay cold for weeks on end.
Quoting 93. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Hey Andre........any exciting weather in LA for you yet?
Hey Joe what's up. Well if this southern storm could give me some snow this weekend, then my wishes will come true. A tropical system and a winter storm in the same month.
Quoting 48. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


compare atlantic sst's same date jan 13 2015/2016


What comparison?
Quoting 99. Tornado6042008X:

What comparison?

The SST this year are at or near record levels and warmer than last year at this time.
Quoting 97. ChiThom:

In another anomaly, Greenland is warmer than Iceland, and Chicago is colder than either, except for Thursday, Friday. We in Chicago are on a roller coaster from 0° F. this morning to 38° tomorrow morning 40° on Friday, then back down to -5° F. on Saturday/Sunday. The cold air is harsh when the wind blows, but the winter as a whole doesn't seem harsh when it doesn't stay cold for weeks on end.

Back in December, the weather in Chicago and SF was nearly identical. We brought our cold weather gear, for nought.
Quoting 92. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Glad Nor Cal is getting some........would be nice to fill our largest water storage at Lake Shasta.......but looks BONE-DRY for at least a week down here in Soo Cal.

I believe it's Lake Oroville that originates the water for LA. It's coming up, and there's a better snowpack than last year, but we need to keep the parade going, and get in a few frog stranglers too.
Gadzook !




Quoting 67. BayFog:


That mostly sounds about right. I'm thinking that angular momentum would also tend to keep the cyclone spinning in its original direction.

Although Pali seems to have initiated its rotation as you describe, as a WWB moved out just south of the Equator, wouldn't a cyclone that initiated more conventionally also retain its circulation if it crossed the Equator? In other words, how a storm initiates rotation isn't what determines its trans-equatorial persistance


That's correct however horizontal wind shear is the only source of rotation close to the equator but if we somehow got a strong cross equatorial flow from 20N or so to 5S (not gonna happen!) , a storm initiating at 20N could hold together across the equator
Quoting 100. washingtonian115:

The SST this year are at or near record levels and warmer than last year at this time.
Oh I know. Its just that its so much so that I could could just glance at the maps and see, especially around Florida, that the waters are warmer this year than last year.

Ergo I didn't have to compare them much at all.
Quoting 99. Tornado6042008X:

What comparison?

the overall global ocean temperatures are rising at a faster and faster rate
this is a super el nino with climate shift enhancements bought upon by activities of human kind with a vast array of feedback mechanisms in play

change one thing change everything

wait the super storms are coming and in a very big way and not gentle like before

2016, the Year the Climate tells Humanity,

Yo, Science'

Quoting 64. TropicalAnalystwx13:

How is the location of formation any indication that global warming is involved? If a tropical cyclone is going to form in the off season, history suggests it's most likely going to be in the subtropics. Alex formed from the transition from extratropical --> subtropical. Even if waters are slightly above average south of the Azores, they're still well below the heralded 26C needed for tropical formation. Alex's genesis can be more attributed to increased marine instability.

Pali formed over record warm ocean temperatures, but it formed away from the equator. El Nino may have had some effect on the SSTs in the region, but a warmer background state may have helped more.


Global Warming causes temperatures in the lower atmosphere and ocean to increase, while temperatures in the stratosphere cool. That increases instability.
Quoting 83. MAweatherboy1:

Much as I am a believer in AGW, I join Cody in disagreeing with the idea that it made the formation of Alex "much more likely". Given it's the first since 1978, before which there were 2 known others, maybe more unknown ones. Hardly noteworthy. An interesting anomaly, but not the sort of thing meteorologists should be immediately linking to AGW. Even Pali is a marginal case, more a result of the El Nino, but I can agree with AGW as at least a contributing factor there, sort of like how El Nino will ensure 2015 as warmest year on record, but with a definite boost from AGW. This microwave pass is a few hours old, but gives an idea of the organization of Alex's core. Looks tropical.




Same reply I gave to Cody's comment applies to yours as well.
Quoting 83. MAweatherboy1:

Much as I am a believer in AGW, I join Cody in disagreeing with the idea that it made the formation of Alex "much more likely". Given it's the first since 1978, before which there were 2 known others, maybe more unknown ones. Hardly noteworthy. An interesting anomaly, but not the sort of thing meteorologists should be immediately linking to AGW. Even Pali is a marginal case, more a result of the El Nino, but I can agree with AGW as at least a contributing factor there, sort of like how El Nino will ensure 2015 as warmest year on record, but with a definite boost from AGW.

This microwave pass is a few hours old, but gives an idea of the organization of Alex's core. Looks tropical.




While I think it could contribute, I don't think there is any way to prove it conclusive for a specific event, though for the same reason, there is no reason to assume it isn't either, since the climate has been changing due to human influences for quite some time now. We cant really say what weather systems that atmospheric would have produced without the human influenced warming, or how the atmosphere would have behaved, other than the fact that we know it would have been cooler, and overall less water vapor.

Though it would be reasonable to suggest that the warming planet will increase the chance of them in the future.

If Alex survives to Friday, as a named Storm, it will be my first B-day with a named Atlantic Storm on the same date...in my 56 years.


I'll drink to dat.

Quoting 79. CybrTeddy:

Certainly a bit odd seeing this in the Atlantic on January 13th.


on the 13th too omen
112. vis0
Quoting 68. JrWeathermanFL:



Exactly. Would the other January cyclones be blamed on GW?
The magic word is GLOBAL.

Sure named storms have formed during the months before the official start of both major oceans TS season, BUT not at the same time (year) with polar regions temps hitting all time highs, half of the USofA warming beyond the norm by 5-10 degrees for 2-3WEEKS!!! while Europe also warmed. 

Usually if one area of the GLOBE / half of a hemisphere has record heat, the other area has either more area of coverage under cooler temps or a cold outbreak and Vice versa within a few days.

So again its not a focus as to a small area of the planet but that the Entire planet is slowly (though faster and faster) but surely leaning towards a more constant warming.

Sure you'll still see record cold outbreaks but NOTICE these cold outbreaks do not put a dent into the global warming otherwise you'd see every 22 years 8-12 warmer and 8-12 cooler years in an order that nature would present.

Instead we see 18 of 22 years warmer and the ones that fall under "cooler" are STILL warmer than what was average 50 years ago and in 50 yrs the norm for then will warmer than the record breaking warmer  yrs we are going through now. Its like you knowing that your body's normal temperature is 98.6 in 4 years its 100F (the normal) in 30 years its 102F (the normal) and then for 4 months your at 101F.  You'll tell your fiends hey i'm cooler , no your not you're still 3 degree above the true normal not the artificial normal which is stressing your body so much it can shut down, the Globe is being stressed and the fault lies either due to a natural progression aka nature / gawd or an artificial progression mankind / greed.

If you want to keep blaming nature / gawd (aka natural reasons) that's your right, i prefer to observe what is happening and not think that what nature / gawd (Physics / Galacsics) took billions of years to build to this point now wants to ruin it in a micro nano blink of an eye, as a few hundred years is compared to a billion years.

oh i forgot the TS near the Equator, the many months in a row that GLOBAL temperatures are warming, the many more years that fall under "an above normal year" as to global temperatures, Australia's heatwaves, S. Americas drought areas, washi115 looking out of place sticking her tongue out near a pillow factory thinking the down feathers are snow as all the Midwest has gotten is record spring-summer time  flooding in mid winter. Midwest is important to washi115 as washi115s snowstorms come from that area, so if its raining in St Lou chances are it ain't snowing in Maryloo.

but then it could be that billions of people experiencing the warming of the globe ate some bad turnip soup?(#53 pg2 here)
I don't think a cat 2 is out of the question with Alex.While cooler waters, wind shear is going to become very favorable
Quoting 108. BaltimoreBrian:



Global Warming causes temperatures in the lower atmosphere and ocean to increase, while temperatures in the stratosphere cool. That increases instability.


Same reply I gave to Cody's comment applies to yours as well.

Instability has been at record low values for the past several years across the Atlantic. Alex is benefiting from a nearby upper-level trough which is increasing the temperature difference between the lower and upper atmosphere.

Increased instability --> formation of convection --> latent heat release --> fully tropical cyclone
Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
STORM WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE PALI (CP012016)
5:00 PM HST January 13 2016
================================
Northeast Of Howland Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Pali (993 hPa) located at 2.7N 172.2W or 285 NM east northeast of Howland Island has sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Gale/Storm Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 2.2N 173.0W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 1.8N 174.3W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 1.4N 177.3W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
72 HRS: 1.7N 179.5E - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
=======================
Interests on Howland and Baker islands should monitor the progress of TC PALI.

The satellite and microwave presentation of Pali has degraded quickly during the day today. The core convection has all but dissipated...although remnant high clouds are still mostly obscuring the center. The higher spatial and temporal resolution of the himawari-8 imagery was helpful in identifying what may be the low level center through thin spots in the cirrus. Intensity estimates continue to drop rapidly...with all three satellite agencies giving final-T numbers of 3.0 and CI numbers of 4.0 /held up by Dvorak constraints/. Have opted for a blend of these values to go with a current intensity of 55 kt...which may still be generous.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 200/8. The tropical cyclone is on the southeastern periphery of a strong deep layer ridge that extends roughly from the Northern Mariana Islands to Wake Island. The track guidance is in excellent agreement through about 48 hours with Pali making a broad arc as it gradually transitions to a more westward motion. Although the guidance tracks remain well-clustered after 48 hours...major differences in the speed of the cyclone appear in that time range...with the GFS tracking the system westward much faster than the ECMWF. The latest official forecast continues to be in good agreement with the consensus guidance and so only minor adjustments were made to the track.

Moderate southwesterly shear of 20 to 25 kt...as well as Pali's proximity to the Equator... is expected to continue to result in weakening through 36 hours. The intensity forecast during this period is more in line with the HWRF...weakening the system faster than the SHIPS guidance. Afterward...the models show shear weakening along the forecast track...and plenty of warm sea surface temperatures. If Pali manages to survive it/S close encounter with the equator...reintensification will be possible as it moves into the Western Pacific. The official forecast still shows this...but not as aggressively as the SHIPS guidance...which makes Pali a hurricane again in 4 days.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F
12:00 PM FST January 14 2016
=============================
Southwest of Northern Cook Island
East of American Samoa

A GALE WARNING is in force for Rakahanga, Manihiki, Penryhn, and Suwarrow of the Northern Cook Islands

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 08F (999 hPa) located at 13.2S 165.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. Position poor based on hourly GOES infrared imagery. The depression is reported as slowly moving.

Deep convection remains persistent but detached from supposed low level circulation center. Organization has improved past 24 hours. Outflow good to the south and east. Sea surface temperatures is around 30C. System lies under a moderate upper divergence region in a low to moderate sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on 0.25 wrap yeilds DT=1.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and slowly move it south southeastward with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS: 14.0S 164.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 15.2S 164.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 17.1S 163.3W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
The model runs keep showing a severe weather event for Florida, but temps are in the 40s tonight. Very hard to understand that we will get anything but rain at this time for Friday.
118. vis0
10, 9, 8, 7, 6 ... Pali getting to 2 degree soon 5hrs left?

all in both hemisphere flush yer terlets at the time Pali 50/50 aka center on 0 degrees or crosses ...oh wait don't it might throw Earth of course not to mention turnip clogs.
next significant system taking shape

Cody do you have a graphic or table that shows the levels of instability over the Atlantic during past years?

Global warming does increase average instability by increasing temperatures at the surface and decreasing temperatures in the stratosphere.
Quoting 119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

next significant system taking shape




Yeah, but it hasn't warmed up like it was forecast to. that takes the heat out of the ingredients unless we really warm up tomorrow and Friday. The severe weather potential is in very low confidence at this time until the storm forms. If the dynamics are as bad as the NAM and WRF shows, maybe the cold weather is not gonna stop tornadoes from forming. Interesting next few days ahead of us here in Florida.
Quoting 117. reedzone:

The model runs keep showing a severe weather event for Florida, but temps are in the 40s tonight. Very hard to understand that we will get anything but rain at this time for Friday.
Speed of 850 mb winds bearing moisture.



 SPC AC 131717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST WED JAN 13 2016

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE IN
THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ECNTRL TX EWD ACROSS LA AND MS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REACHING THE CNTRL GULF COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES THURSDAY
NIGHT. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO FOR ROTATING CELLS.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE LIMITING THE SEVERE THREAT INLAND ACROSS SRN
LA...SRN MS...SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

..BROYLES.. 01/13/2016

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0341Z (9:41PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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In 1993, there was severe weather in Florida , while there was a blizzard with thundersnow at my house in Central Alabama.
Quoting 124. reedzone:

If the dynamics are as bad as the NAM and WRF shows, maybe the cold weather is not gonna stop tornadoes from forming. Interesting next few days ahead of us here in Florida.
Quoting 114. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Instability has been at record low values for the past several years across the Atlantic. Alex is benefiting from a nearby upper-level trough which is increasing the temperature difference between the lower and upper atmosphere.

Increased instability --> formation of convection --> latent heat release --> fully tropical cyclone


Those record low instability values would be even lower without global warming's influence. Global warming doesn't just change the odds of things happening, it changes the baseline completely. There's more instability, more moisture in the air to work with.

2+2+1 = 5. If the two factors that are not global warming are reduced to a record value of 0, it's still 0+0+1, which is 1. If global warming was not occurring, the final value would be 0.

How come I didn't get a response to my earlier post? I feel slighted, Codfish, slighted I tell you.


Hello WU... Happy 2016!

Questions arise now with the genesis of STS Alex regarding my new circle-graph, as unexpected as it is, this 4th year of prediction is a little off track (ruining my plans) but any who um I'm still on track with what I'm up with and when time comes for the predictions to drop in please INCLUDE Alex in your numbers. It may be a little unpleasant to think of a season ahead yet with something already happening.

So come up with your numbers, say 15, 7,4 for example, WITH ALEX make sure you go 16, 7, 4. Think thoroughly!!

Ps. If anyone wants to drop their preliminary numbers in, go to my blog and do it. I need something to start working with to see how well my new thing's gonna work.
Pps. I'll be coming up with a new handle as well.

HAGD!
Anyway looking at this year I wouldn't be surprised if we see see one or two more Atlantic storms before June 1 2016 more so in April/May timeframe
I have a feeling this year we could see a good lot of storms and high impacts

I do wish we can get a Cat 5 this year even if it's a fish just so we can get out of the Cat 5 drought last year we almost made it with Joaquin
Quoting 132. MaxWeather:



Hello WU... Happy 2016!

Questions arise now with the genesis of STS Alex regarding my new circle-graph, as unexpected as it is, this 4th year of prediction is a little off track (ruining my plans) but any who um I'm still on track with what I'm up with and when time comes for the predictions to drop in please INCLUDE Alex in your numbers. It may be a little unpleasant to think of a season ahead yet with something already happening.

So come up with your numbers, say 15, 7,4 for example, WITH ALEX make sure you go 16, 7, 4. Think thoroughly!!

Ps. If anyone wants to drop their preliminary numbers in, go to my blog and do it. I need something to start working with to see how well my new thing's gonna work.
Pps. I'll be coming up with a new handle as well.

HAGD!


Wondered when you were going to show up.
Quoting 134. Grothar:



Wondered when you were going to show up.

Am I wanted for something here?
Preliminary earthquake 6.7 Northern Japan
Dang, Alex looks robust for a January cyclone. I hope he becomes a hurricane, just because that'd be just about the most epic thing ever.
Quoting 135. MaxWeather:


Am I wanted for something here?
not anymore you answer everyone's question
Dad says that CA has a Powerball winner. Pedley?

Quoting 134. Grothar:



Wondered when you were going to show up.


Don't worry Gro, I texted him when I saw barb's post. ;-)
Quoting 124. reedzone:



Yeah, but it hasn't warmed up like it was forecast to. that takes the heat out of the ingredients unless we really warm up tomorrow and Friday. The severe weather potential is in very low confidence at this time until the storm forms. If the dynamics are as bad as the NAM and WRF shows, maybe the cold weather is not gonna stop tornadoes from forming. Interesting next few days ahead of us here in Florida.
Not only hasn't it warmed up but it's already quite a bit cooler than predicted. The low has already been updated twice. It's 33 now here in Eufaula. The original predicted low was 35. That changed to 32 late this afternoon and has now been dropped to 30. We have the same south wind we had last night, when temperatures went up from 36 to 40 at this time last night. That produced an overnight low of 33, contrary to the original prediction of 27. We did have a nice warmup today under full sun, with a high of 62. As soon as the sun set, temperatures started to drop fast.

I don't really understand what's going on other than a dry trough is passing through from the north. The timing and positions of the next pair of shortwaves coming through will determine our weather for Thursday night and Friday. If the Gulf shortwave doesn't phase with the northern one, we may end up with just a little rain near the coast and no convection. If they do phase and we start getting a respectable return flow, things, as you say, might get more interesting.
Quoting 140. Astrometeor:

Dad says that CA has a Powerball winner. Pedley?



Don't worry Gro, I texted him when I saw barb's post. ;-)


What a guy!! Warm SST's possible La Nina in the fall.................
144. beell
Quoting 122. BaltimoreBrian:

Cody do you have a graphic or table that shows the levels of instability over the Atlantic during past years?

Global warming does increase average instability by increasing temperatures at the surface and decreasing temperatures in the stratosphere.


You may want to double check what part of the atmosphere drives the lapse rate and resultant instability. 700-500 mb is a fairly standard measure. A long ways from the stratosphere.
Quoting 133. wunderkidcayman:

Anyway looking at this year I wouldn't be surprised if we see see one or two more Atlantic storms before June 1 2016 more so in April/May timeframe
I have a feeling this year we could see a good lot of storms and high impacts

I do wish we can get a Cat 5 this year even if it's a fish just so we can get out of the Cat 5 drought last year we almost made it with Joaquin
I wonder what happened to the guy who was making the "trust me" prediction of two hurricanes, one being a major, in December? We seem to get all kinds of strange predictions here in the offseason. If we do a get a Cat 5 this year, I'd much prefer it to be a fish rather than one headed right at me.
Quoting 144. beell:

You may want to double check what part of the atmosphere drives the lapse rate and resultant instability. 700-500 mb is a fairly standard measure. A long ways from the stratosphere.
Hurricanes' convection goes a lot higher than the 500 mb level.
Quoting 136. Grothar:

Preliminary earthquake 6.7 Northern Japan






medium depth quake


Location
Hokkaido, Japan Region

Magnitude
MWP 6.7

Latitude
41.9519 N

Longitude
142.7205 E

Depth
51.4 km
Quoting 132. MaxWeather:



Hello WU... Happy 2016!

Questions arise now with the genesis of STS Alex regarding my new circle-graph, as unexpected as it is, this 4th year of prediction is a little off track (ruining my plans) but any who um I'm still on track with what I'm up with and when time comes for the predictions to drop in please INCLUDE Alex in your numbers. It may be a little unpleasant to think of a season ahead yet with something already happening.

So come up with your numbers, say 15, 7,4 for example, WITH ALEX make sure you go 16, 7, 4. Think thoroughly!!

Ps. If anyone wants to drop their preliminary numbers in, go to my blog and do it. I need something to start working with to see how well my new thing's gonna work.
Pps. I'll be coming up with a new handle as well.

HAGD!
Put me down as 16,8,5.
Quoting 129. Alagirl:

In 1993, there was severe weather in Florida , while there was a blizzard with thundersnow at my house in Central Alabama.
About the only thing I know for sure over the next two days is we're not going to get a blizzard. We may not even get much rain. Now, next week about this time might be a different story. We shall see. The GFS normally disappoints me when it's calling for the possibility of snow this far out.
Quoting 150. sar2401:

About the only thing I know for sure over the next two days is we're not going to get a blizzard. We may not even get much rain. Now, next week about this time might be a different story. We shall see. The GFS normally disappoints me when it's calling for the possibility of snow this far out.


It's already disappointing me about snow in the ten day range...and I'm looking for snow in southern PA! Should be easier than Alabama...

Campus picked up its first accumulation the other day. 0.6" of snow from that snow squall.
Quoting 102. BayFog:


I believe it's Lake Oroville that originates the water for LA. It's coming up, and there's a better snowpack than last year, but we need to keep the parade going, and get in a few frog stranglers too.
There are three main sources of L.A.'s water supply, all split about equally. Some of it comes from the State Water Project. It collects water from 22 reservoirs, Oroville being first in line. It also collects some water from the Delta before it's sent south through the 444 mile state aqueduct, finally ending up in southern California. The second source is the Colorado River Aqueduct, which collects water from Lake Havasu and sends it 242 miles across the desert. About 30% comes from local groundwater in normal years, but it's been almost 60% in the last couple of years of the drought. That may be surprising to people who think of L.A. not having any water, but the groundwater resource is really quite large. Southern California really needs the rain this year, not just to fill the reservoirs, but also to recharge the aquifers.
Quoting 151. Astrometeor:



It's already disappointing me about snow in the ten day range...and I'm looking for snow in southern PA! Should be easier than Alabama...

Campus picked up its first accumulation the other day. 0.6" of snow from that snow squall.
One would think, but I remember at least half the years in Cleveland where the ground was mostly free of snow cover for most of the season. Frozen mud and everything was brown, but no snow.The other half we had blizzards, whiteouts, and huge drifts. Well, there was that one year where it was sunny and mild all winter. I think I remember seeing unicorns out frolicing too. :-)
Quoting 89. HurricaneFan:

I know most of you will disagree, but I don't believe in man-made climate change either, nor do I think it caused Alex. It just doesn't seem possible that humans can make the planet significantly warmer in 100 years. Climate oscillates, and we have had much warmer periods in the past.


CO2 = heat trapping gas
Increased CO2 = more heat
Warm(er) waters = higher probability for tropical formation.

Why is this so hard to understand?
Hey Sar... Enjoying your snow? Maybe Patrap will get some in NOLA this year too.
Quoting 97. ChiThom:

In another anomaly, Greenland is warmer than Iceland, and Chicago is colder than either, except for Thursday, Friday. We in Chicago are on a roller coaster from 0 F. this morning to 38 tomorrow morning 40 on Friday, then back down to -5 F. on Saturday/Sunday. The cold air is harsh when the wind blows, but the winter as a whole doesn't seem harsh when it doesn't stay cold for weeks on end.
Yes, and not to mention the constant gray sky and never seeing the sun for weeks on end. I don't think it's quite as bad in Chicago. Back after I went to look it up, and Chicago is much less gray in the winter. Percent of possible sunshine in January is 46% there compared to a dreadful 34% for Cleveland. It's even more dreadful in December, when it's 24% compared to 37% in Chicago. I really, really hated the first two weeks in January. At least in December, everyone had up their Christmas lights, and downtown was lit up like a beacon. After January 1, everything came down, darkness prevailed, and the real impact of no sun hit. I don't know what the suicide rate in Cleveland is for January, but the weather is definitely enough to be the final straw if you're already so inclined.
Quoting 155. Dakster:

Hey Sar... Enjoying your snow? Maybe Patrap will get some in NOLA this year too.
The only snow I have is my little Chinese freezer, which needs defrosting again. :-) There really does seem to be a relationship between constant nighttime cold temperatures and an increasing possibility of snow. That pattern does seem to be getting cranked up again now, and a Gulf low in the right place and time might make for a white January.
Quoting 154. FatPenguin:



CO2 = heat trapping gas
Increased CO2 = more heat
Warm(er) waters = higher probability for tropical formation.

Why is this so hard to understand?
I think I understand what he's saying though. It's really more like 165 years than 100, but it does seem really hard for a lot of people to understand humans could be responsible for such drastic changes in such a geologically short period of time. It's one of the real challenges of science communication in this whole battle. It's not easy to explain this in a short, concise manner to people with no science background. It's much easier for a lot of people to think man just isn't that powerful and let it go at that.
Yesterday was really a beautiful day! Some new pictures here with a lot of blue.... and a little bit of green too.
Quoting 52. ChateauChalon:



uhm, after all there are 21 greek letters, which leaves us to 45 potential names, and only the
Pacific typhoon season of 1964 got somehow close to this number with 39 named systems, so there is no need to be worried about the Atlantic. ;-) The naming system of the Pacific typhoon season is based on 5 rotational lists, which can be used throughout the years.
If we top 45 storms, I vote for bring back all the retired names. Things will be scary enough, so we might as well seal the deal with a bunch of scary names. :-)
hey jeff or bob I don't think the list you have counts

An unnamed 1938 hurricane became a tropical storm on January 3 well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and lasted until January 6.

Subtropical Storm One of January 18 %u2013 23, 1978 gained subtropical depression status over waters of about 75 %uFFFDF (24 %uFFFDC) about 1,700 miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Storm One of 1951 was a tropical storm from January 4 - 9 in the waters a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. This was likely really a subtropical storm.



has back then they where not doing name storms back in the old days



you for got ANA and I think there was a 1978 hurricane in FEB not sure on that one so you missed two



Quoting 159. CaribBoy:

Yesterday was really a beautiful day! Some new pictures here with a lot of blue.... and a little bit of green too.
I can hear the steel drum band off in the distance when I look at those pictures. Nice cloud photos too.
by the way has there ever been a name storm in MAR be for ??? if not that's the only moth we are missing so if we can get a name storm too fourm in MAR then it would be the 1st time ever that we had at lest one name storm forming in JAN FEB MAR and ARP be for may
Quoting 123. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




2.3" from the last storm, a lot more on the way. Nice to finally get a little action in the rain guage I got for x-mas. Sorry ur missing out on all this wetcoast action so cal, I'll probably bring the rain down with me when I visit mid february:-)
Quoting 140. Astrometeor:

Dad says that CA has a Powerball winner. Pedley?



Don't worry Gro, I texted him when I saw barb's post. ;-)


Wasn't Me, It was supposedly Chino Hills, close but no Cigar..... I didn't get a single number....
Quoting 163. Tazmanian:

by the way has there ever been a name storm in MAR be for ??? if not that's the only moth we are missing so if we can get a name storm too fourm in MAR then it would be the 1st time ever that we had at lest one name storm forming in JAN FEB MAR and ARP be for may


March 1908, a hurricane formed in the Atlantic Basin !
Quoting 165. PedleyCA:



Wasn't Me, It was supposedly Chino Hills, close but no Cigar..... I didn't get a single number....
What happens if you do hit at least one number? (Sorry meeting in the morning can't sleep)
Quoting 89. HurricaneFan:

I know most of you will disagree, but I don't believe in man-made climate change either, nor do I think it caused Alex.


Your belief is irrelevant. Math, physics, chemistry, thermal dynamics, etc. don't require or care about your personal beliefs or the beliefs of anyone else. Cold hard facts. There is a phenomena. Scientists study the phenomena. They apply analysis to the phenomena. From the analysis the produce a model explaining the phenomena. They test said model and validate against the observations. Then they get other scientists to try and break their model. If there model holds, it's accepted. The model can then be used to study and make predictions of the phenomena.

Model here does not mean "computer model", BTW. It means logical constructs that models the phenomena under study. To illustrate, the first climate model was developed by Arrhenius back in the 1890's, long before computers were around.

It just doesn't seem possible that humans can make the planet significantly warmer in 100 years. Climate oscillates, and we have had much warmer periods in the past.


It just doesn't seem possible that a 60,000 lbs chunk of metal can fly for thousands of miles at 600 mph either. Or being injected with a small amount of liquid filed microscopic little particles can stop a crippling diseases. Or a tiny itty bitty piece of silicon carved with ultramicrscopic patterns can create beautiful virtual worlds to roam around in and run computations faster than all humans on the planet combined. But you accept these and many other wonders of the modern world without so much as a thought, wonders that even 100 years ago would seem magical and damn near unbelievable to the average person. Wonders that you more than likely only have a passing knowledge of how they even operate.

At best, not accepting the science behind climate research is hypocritical. However, it also make you look rather foolish as the same sciences that back all the wonders of the modern world that you don't seem to have any problems accepting are the same sciences that lead to the prediction of AGW.

Believe what you want, though. Reality doesn't really care.
Although the record warm Atlantic waters helped fuel Subtropical Storm Alex, is it possible that the current EL Nino ... and its world-wide effects, had a lot to do with the formation of the system?
Quoting 167. washingtonian115:

What happens if you do hit at least one number? (Sorry meeting in the morning can't sleep)


I am guessing nothing, The old lottery took 3 of 6 to get a free ticket, so 1 number ain't anything on this one....lol
well Oops...
go here Powerball
Hopefully!
.
Quoting 140. Astrometeor:

Dad says that CA has a Powerball winner. Pedley?



Don't worry Gro, I texted him when I saw barb's post. ;-)
You go back to work tomorrow. Unless you hit the power ball number. About $4.

Quoting 167. washingtonian115:

What happens if you do hit at least one number? (Sorry meeting in the morning can't sleep)
Quoting 169. Stormwatch247:

Although the record warm Atlantic waters helped fuel Subtropical Storm Alex, is it possible that the current EL Nino ... and its world-wide effects, had a lot to do with the formation of the system?

Maybe. But I think it's more likely that global warming has made this El Nino stronger, and also warmed the Atlantic directly...and/or via some teleconnection with the stronger El Nino.

Pali drifting westward along 2 N !
Local forecast office for San Francisco notes that the GFS is seeing 4 inches of rain from Sunday night over 3 days. There's a possibility of a front hanging up along the coast and tapping subtropical moisture. We shall see.
Quoting 124. reedzone:



Yeah, but it hasn't warmed up like it was forecast to. that takes the heat out of the ingredients unless we really warm up tomorrow and Friday. The severe weather potential is in very low confidence at this time until the storm forms. If the dynamics are as bad as the NAM and WRF shows, maybe the cold weather is not gonna stop tornadoes from forming. Interesting next few days ahead of us here in Florida.


No it was not forecast to warm up tonight. It can easily warm up in time. Florida is just north of the tropics. All it takes is a gusty south inflow wind and boom, deep moisture and warmth will quickly return. It's not unusual at all this time of year ahead of approaching fronts. Don't expect any warming though until the warm front develops and passes through, until then, temps will cool with cloudiness and northeast winds continuing ahead of the developing warm front.

As the warm front swings by, temps will warm rapidly under gusty southerly winds and also a strong low level jet will help to bring in strong moisture return and aid in the severe potential. Trust me, it will warm up surprisingly fast overnight tomorrow night.


With that said, there is cause for concern due to instability, but it's not the lack of return flow bringing warmth and higher dew points that's an issue. It's that there will likely not be a cap, so widespread showers and clouds will limit instability, that and the fact that it's occurring during the overnight. With that said, nocturnal instability over the gulf could mean still a higher risk for immediate west coast Florida counties, but I do think overall a lack of CAPE will limit the severe threat. Though shear and upper support will be strong enough that the severe threat will still exist even with meager instability, just not as bad as it could be.


Alex doesn't prove anything when it comes to global warming. Three of the other tropical systems that formed in the Atlantic in January before this were in the '50s, and the last was in 1978.

Thanks for playing, try again.
Quoting 175. BayFog:

Local forecast office for San Francisco notes that the GFS is seeing 4 inches of rain from Sunday night over 3 days. There's a possibility of a front hanging up along the coast and tapping subtropical moisture. We shall see.


Fill Lake Shasta.........bring it on!
Quoting 164. plantmoretrees:



2.3" from the last storm, a lot more on the way. Nice to finally get a little action in the rain guage I got for x-mas. Sorry ur missing out on all this wetcoast action so cal, I'll probably bring the rain down with me when I visit mid february:-)


If that verifies, Lake Shasta should be getting some good inflow.
Looks like a hurricane..

Alex is certainly looking more tropical, wow! Looks likely it'll become a hurricane - hope the azores are keeping a close eye on it. Certainly not something to expect in January!



Also, winter has finally arrived to my parts of the UK, with temperatures back to normal. It's a shame though as a lot of the spring bulbs have come up and in the coming days there's set to be a cold snap with overnight severe frosts with temperatures down to -2/-3 in the center of London and even colder in the country side (lows possibly down to -10 and maybe even lower in more northern locations)! But it appears this cold snap will be short lived for the UK, with warmer weather set to come back by the end of next week. Of course the models are not to be really trusted at the moment - there was great uncertainty with the current cold snap.
Negative 5 ...That is very strong signal...Strong storm is a very real possibility..All the conditions are there.



Quoting 2. BayFog:

Would it be possible for a cyclone to cross the Equator and retain its original direction of rotation, even against the Coriolis Effect? Are we about to find out?



It should do. I remember a blog a while ago where Dr Masters had a gif of a clockwise-rotating are of low pressure that passed the equator from the southern Atlantic to the northern Atlantic and kept its clockwise spin. It's just very rare for something like that to occur.
Quoting 54. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lack of true cold fronts maybe the slight cooling this past couple of days will cool it down just a tad
Hi Keep, so the early season storms in the 1800"s and before were also caused by climate change. Maybe they were, but their is no scientific proof they were, only a few unproven theories in the last few years, that suggest they might be caused by climate change. If what they are assuming is true, maybe climate change is good for mankind, in that it will delay the next Ice Age for 100,000 yrs. If people think climate change is the worst that could happen to mankind, then I would love to read these blog if an Ice Age were to start tomorrow. It sure would end any talk of climate change, with a mile of ice on top of New York City, but that would be climate change to, if you think about it.
Quoting 3. luvtogolf:
No it doesn't.
In the recent words of a very wise man:
Quoting Barack Obama

"...[I]f anybody still wants to dispute the science around climate change, have at it. You'll be pretty lonely, because you'll be debating our military, most of America's business leaders, the majority of the American people, almost the entire scientific community, and 200 nations around the world who agree it's a problem and intend to solve it."
(IOW: personal declarations of disbelief mean absolutely nothing.)


Quoting 130. wunderkidcayman:



You roll your eye back to normal
Look two storms in the North Atlantic and North Pacific (Western Hemisphere) at the same time IN JANUARY is quite a bit unprecedented compared to two storms in the (Southern Hemisphere) at the same time IN JANUARY which is well normal
Hi, yes this unprecedented, but it has happened before climate change was such a hot blog topic, an in recent times, but then those storms were not caused by climate change, so why is this one. Lets get our heads out of the sand and try to figure the cause, before we are engulfed in another ice age.
storms brewing on wall street. thats for sure.
189. Terox
Well said. In further response, If I asked you if it were possible to poison a small pond and kill all life in it, you would say "yes". If I asked you if it were possible to poison a large lake, you would say "yes, we have done that too". If I asked you if it were possible to create smog so severe over a large country such as China, where the sun could not be seen, its people had to wear masks, and the situation could be seen from the ISS, you would answer "Yes". But with all these factual observations of our direct cause and effect, some fail to see the connection that our activities are causing a chain reaction in the atmosphere leading to increased global temperatures. Google some pictures of the earth from space. Turn off all other distractions, sit quietly and observe. Such a small pinpoint of remarkable life in an ocean of black emptiness. The earth has boundaries, just like those lakes.
Quoting 168. Xyrus2000:



Your belief is irrelevant. Math, physics, chemistry, thermal dynamics, etc. don't require or care about your personal beliefs or the beliefs of anyone else. Cold hard facts. There is a phenomena. Scientists study the phenomena. They apply analysis to the phenomena. From the analysis the produce a model explaining the phenomena. They test said model and validate against the observations. Then they get other scientists to try and break their model. If there model holds, it's accepted. The model can then be used to study and make predictions of the phenomena.

Model here does not mean "computer model", BTW. It means logical constructs that models the phenomena under study. To illustrate, the first climate model was developed by Arrhenius back in the 1890's, long before computers were around.

It just doesn't seem possible that humans can make the planet significantly warmer in 100 years. Climate oscillates, and we have had much warmer periods in the past.


It just doesn't seem possible that a 60,000 lbs chunk of metal can fly for thousands of miles at 600 mph either. Or being injected with a small amount of liquid filed microscopic little particles can stop a crippling diseases. Or a tiny itty bitty piece of silicon carved with ultramicrscopic patterns can create beautiful virtual worlds to roam around in and run computations faster than all humans on the planet combined. But you accept these and many other wonders of the modern world without so much as a thought, wonders that even 100 years ago would seem magical and damn near unbelievable to the average person. Wonders that you more than likely only have a passing knowledge of how they even operate.

At best, not accepting the science behind climate research is hypocritical. However, it also make you look rather foolish as the same sciences that back all the wonders of the modern world that you don't seem to have any problems accepting are the same sciences that lead to the prediction of AGW.

Believe what you want, though. Reality doesn't really care.

Alex is now a hurricane. 75 knots, 981 mb according to latest ATCF.
Quoting 187. NativeSun:

Hi, yes this unprecedented, but it has happened before climate change was such a hot blog topic, an in recent times, but then those storms were not caused by climate change, so why is this one. Lets get our heads out of the sand and try to figure the cause, before we are engulfed in another ice age.

... and have to wear tin foil hats.
Quoting 190. Bobbyweather:

Alex is now a hurricane. 75 knots, 981 mb according to latest ATCF.


If Alex has 74MPH (or greater) sustained winds, with SUBTROPICAL characteristics, will it officially be called a hurricane?
Quoting 187. NativeSun:

Lets get our heads out of the sand and try to figure the cause, before we are engulfed in another ice age.
Yeah, about that. Not going to happen: "Moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions... will postpone the next glacial inception by at least 100,000 years."
Quoting 192. Stormwatch247:



If Alex has 74MPH (or greater) sustained winds, with SUBTROPICAL characteristics, will it officially be called a hurricane?

A subtropical storm is defined by the NHC as a subtropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 34 kt (39 mph or 63 km/hr) or more. Therefore, it will still be called a subtropical storm. Also, according to Wikipedia, the maximum wind speed recorded in a subtropical cyclone is 65 knots.
AL, 01, 2016011412, , BEST, 0, 308N, 287W, 75, 981, HU

Quoting 187. NativeSun:

Hi, yes this unprecedented, but it has happened before climate change was such a hot blog topic, an in recent times, but then those storms were not caused by climate change, so why is this one. Lets get our heads out of the sand and try to figure the cause, before we are engulfed in another ice age.

Yeah, cause those ice ages can be kinda sneaky sometimes, right?

I think that you are deluding yourself.



Pretty little guy, this Alex. SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 is an interersting read.
Oh wait, lol, it's really already an official hurricane now?
Quoting 195. Neapolitan:

Yeah, about that. Not going to happen: "Moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions... will postpone the next glacial inception by at least 100,000 years."

No wonder some people feel disquieted. Denial grows far older dan 100k years.
202. vis0

Quoting 129. Alagirl:

In 1993, there was severe weather in Florida , while there was a blizzard with thundersnow at my house in Central Alabama.
[humour]washi115 wants to know whats the going rate to rent your old house is during El Nino years,  washi115 sez price is no problem [humour]
Quoting 197. GeoffreyWPB:

AL, 01, 2016011412, , BEST, 0, 308N, 287W, 75, 981, HU




Well... If the rest of the season is inactive at least the "I bet there won't be a single hurricane this year" people will be quiet.

Hurricane Alex on January 14th, 2016.

1-1-0

Unreal.




Quoting 193. tampabaymatt:




With 2 frontal systems set for Florida, the rainfall forecast is too low. Sure they'll be really progressive, but still.
Quoting 204. Jedkins01:



With 2 frontal systems set for Florida, the rainfall forecast is too low. Sure they'll be really progressive, but still.


Jed, what are your thoughts on severe potential for tomorrow morning? Ruskin seems to be more down on the potential due to low instability and lapse rates.



The Azores should prepare.
207. vis0
Quoting 135. MaxWeather:
 Am I wanted for something here?


      Quoting 139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

       not anymore you answer everyone's question


There is one more thing, we need Max (his chart) here to argue 'bout #s when nothing is crunching out record breaking numbers in the salty whirlpools of the world...oh and get a cup of coffee, bagel, fresh chicken and fresh turnips..."warm water?" there's plenty of that.
Quoting 204. Jedkins01:



With 2 frontal systems set for Florida, the rainfall forecast is too low. Sure they'll be really progressive, but still.


Euro is showing 2" to 3" thru Sunday for much of N & C FL. GFS is showing 1.5" to 2". I believe the WPC went low on their totals as they are waiting for more solid agreement with regards to the Sunday system. We will also need to watch for severe weather with both systems as winds @ 850mb especially Sunday are expected to exceed 60knts.

Quoting 177. rjsenterp:

Alex doesn't prove anything when it comes to global warming. Three of the other tropical systems that formed in the Atlantic in January before this were in the '50s, and the last was in 1978.

Thanks for playing, try again.
You seem to think that Global Warming only began in the 1980s or later. Take another look at the full Keeling Curve, which began in the 1950s and at that time showed the continuation of a fairly strong upward trend, meaning that the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere had been going on for quite a while before that. We are now learning what effect 400ppm has on our atmosphere, but who knows just what effect 300ppm had over the 280ppm of pre-industrial times? We are now in uncharted territory and uncertainty reigns.
210. vis0

Quoting 171. swflurker:

Hopefully!
.
Joe?  Joey?


This is what global warming looks like: the new age of flooding

The “one-off” floods of July 2007 have inaugurated a new era of extreme weather events – and they’re only going to get more frequent.

The floods of July 2007, which caused £3bn worth of damage, were meant to be a one-off event. Instead, they appear to have inaugurated a new era of extreme weather. The list of places overwhelmed by supposedly freak conditions is growing all the time. To Tewkesbury, Hull and the many other places in the north and Midlands that were flooded in 2007, we can now add Morpeth in 2008, Keswick and Cockermouth in 2009, the Welsh town of St Asaph in 2012 and the Somerset Levels during the winter of 2013-14.

Cumbria was the first place affected this year, as a record 340 millimetres of rain fell in 24 hours in early December. The village of Glenridding flooded three times in succession, while Keswick flooded for the third time in ten years. Cockermouth, which spent £4.4m on defences after the floods of 2009 left its Georgian shops and houses under eight feet of water, flooded again. Every river in Lancashire reached its highest recorded level on Boxing Day, and there was flooding in big cities such as York and Leeds. Storm Frank, the sixth storm of the season to merit a name, caused widespread flooding in Scotland.


Link
Quoting 163. Tazmanian:

by the way has there ever been a name storm in MAR be for ??? if not that's the only moth we are missing so if we can get a name storm too fourm in MAR then it would be the 1st time ever that we had at lest one name storm forming in JAN FEB MAR and ARP be for may


Maybe we can get one in the Pacific to hit Mexico and then have it ride up the western coast of the US during March... That would be really rare too.
I'd guess Alex has been a hurricane for close to 12 hours. Excellent structure.

Alex could very well peak at a Category 2 hurricane. Azores better watch out. Like MAweatherboy1 said, it has a spectacular structure. It's jaw-dropping... Are we sure this is January?
---TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 141318 UTC.---
---TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 164.6W AT 141200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR IMAGERY. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.---
---DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP YEILDS DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.---
---GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHWARD WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.---

The look of this invest reminds me of Pali, before it was named. I'm gonna keep watching this. The convection is really impressive in the middle of the Pacific, south-south-east from Pali, around the Pacific-El Nino's hot pool.
i remember models caught South pac.. td 8 a week ago. they are so good nowadays
And... Thanks Dr. Masters for insisting on all the evidence piling up year after year, backing the fact we're already living into the age of consequences (from AGW).
Gro - Alex could turn into on heck of a Nor'Easter huh? Just need the models to shift a little more.


Brazil inflames forest fires with pro-deforestation laws


A total of 999 fires for the first four days of January 2016 − an increase of 85% over the same period in 2015 – was recorded by INPE.

Meanwhile, weather forecasters say 2016 will be as dry as last year, under the continuing influence of El Niño. If the forecasters are correct, and the proposed government bills are passed, then 2016 will be a year of “burn, Brazil, burn”.


Link
Alex is officially a hurricane, hurricane warnings are posted for the Azores.
Wow. I just randomly checked the NHC website for the first time in weeks and out of nowhere there is a 85 mph hurricane? This is unbelievable!
Alex HURRICANE WOW!!!
So is Alex only the third January hurricane on record?
OMG!!!!!!!! ALEX IS NOW A HURRICANE

As for of 11am advisory Alex is now a full tropical Hurricane with wind of 85MPH Hurricane warnings have been issued

Quoting 224. HarryMc:

So is Alex only the third January hurricane on record?




2nd
and there goes my prediction for 2016 with no hurricanes....afraid i lost again :-)
228. JRRP
Quoting 226. ricderr:





2nd

1938
1955
and 2016
Jan. 14, 2016 - Amazing. Alex now officially a hurricane.

The hurricane's 85MPH sustained winds might get a little stronger!


A hurricane over cool waters...
We need weather cams from Azores :))
233. MahFL
Quoting 232. CaribBoy:

We need weather cams from Azores :))


talk about rare events for both the C PAC and Atlantic and with the same peak or vary closed
Alex structure looks like a stronger storm.I think this peaks at 95-100mph shortly.
Alex is an amazing historic storm. Pacific spitting out monster systems at Alaska and the Northwest. Central Pacific with SST driven ferocity is producing monsters in January. Record rains of historic nature so many places this year and the Spring heat of next year is not yet upon us. Next year could top this year for extremes. People are going to start waking up to that this is not normal. What an insane year of climate!
237. vis0
Quoting 187. NativeSun:
Lets get our heads out of the sand and try to figure the cause, before we are engulfed in another ice age.

   
    Quoting 195. Neapolitan:


Yeah, about that. Not going to happen: "Moderate anthropogenic cumulative CO2 emissions... will postpone the next glacial inception by at least 100,000 years."
NativeSun One  good thing 'bout an ice age hundreds of thousands of years LATER is whatever animal takes the place of humans they can find our ice preserved bodies infused with co2 / pollutants under the ice sheets and hopefully study why humans died off and not re re-peat AT LEAST THAT cause again.

In case anyone think is humans will mutate? It takes thousands even millions of years for a successful mutation, biblical verses explain the 6 stages as gawds 6 days.   i explain it as ice ages and radon ages where ice ages mutate the brain while radon ages mutate the body, but who care 'bout that crap.  aGW is happening on a scale of a few hundreds of years, unless nature sticks a military grade filter in our lungs and a muffler up ...
(add yer NYC cabbie jargon here -not "Taxi Talk" the NYC cable show- ah 1 of my 'ol studio camera jobs)
...humans will dwindle to very few and other animals will take care of whats left being they are displaced by the warmth and hungry and and have better survival techniques than humans, by then humans look like a tasty junk food....also goes down well with a sugary coke.

aGw prevention is NOT trying to add costs to your life its trying to lower the "pass the buck" costs to the future generations so less Nativesuns don't have to pay for past Nativesuns not knowing to even uncaring way of living.

If one did not know that feeding a baby sugar filled baby food would cause the baby body damage, that falls under not knowing.  If that same person had tons of scientific data / warning labels saying do not feed babies food that has more than a certain amount of gramsof sugar and one still feeds the baby lots of sugar that's uncaring.

Nativesun you're on a blog where people take their time to present you with links to new, newer , new(est) studies, latest atmospheric readings showing you that the GLOBE is warming.  Nativesun you present the same studies or refurbished words pointing to the same old studies, like ones bragging that the globe is not warming, from the 1980s but under a 2011 blog, we are in the 21st century
Nativesun the reason you have to pay more now is 'cause Nativesuns  of the past "passed the buck on you/us"
Why are you copying a manner that you state is unfair?
Now since there is a formidable hurricane out there in the month of January, "technically" there should be a hurricane every month from now till November. If you can get one in January you should be able to get one in February, March, April, etc... And from June thru September there HAS to be one for crying out loud! if there's one in January you'd think so...but that's not how nature works, we'll probably have a month during the heart of the season without one, go figure.
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016

Remarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane.
A distinct eye is present, embedded within a fairly symmetric mass
of deep convection. Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level
trough is now west of the cyclone, with divergent flow over the
center - indicative of a tropical transition. It is very unusual to
have a hurricane over waters that are near 20 deg C, but the
upper-tropospheric temperatures are estimated to be around -60 deg
C, which is significantly colder than the tropical mean. The
resulting instability is likely the main factor contributing to the
tropical transition and intensification of Alex. With these
changes, the government of the Azores has issued warnings for most
of the Azores islands.

The initial intensity is set to 75 kt in accordance with the
analyzed Dvorak T-number of 4.5. Only slight additional
intensification seems possible since the system will be passing
over even colder waters during the next day or two. In 36 hours,
the global models suggest that the cyclone will become
extratropical as it begins to merge with a large low pressure area
at high latitude. The post-tropical cyclone is then likely to lose
its identity after 48 hours.

The initial motion is north-northeastward or 020/17 kt. Alex is
being steered by a shortwave mid-level trough that is rotating
around a larger trough to the northwest. This should cause the
cyclone to turn northward and north-northwestward and accelerate
over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous one and also quite close to the consensus
of the tightly-packed dynamical model forecast tracks.

Alex is the first hurricane to form in the month of January since
1938, and the first hurricane to occur in this month since Alice of
1955.
What a fascinating storm Alex is, amazing start to the season!


It's a shame Pali weakened before Alex gained hurricane status, could you imagine the CPAC and ATL both having simultaneous hurricanes in January? Both having named systems was awesome at any rate.
Quoting 230. CaribBoy:



A hurricane over cool waters...


I thought one of the long standing facts about hurricanes is that they require SSTs of 26.5C in order to be sustained? The waters below Alex are several degrees below that. I'm not sure how this is a hurricane unless the NHC is saying that SST principle is incorrect.
Quoting 242. tampabaymatt:



I thought one of the long standing facts about hurricanes is that they require SSTs of 26.5C in order to be sustained? The waters below Alex are several degrees below that. I'm not sure how this is a hurricane unless the NHC is saying that SST principle is incorrect.

See first paragraph in #239, it adresses this question.
Wacky weather. So now to look at the little data we have about hurricane seasons when one forms in January... IIRC, I don't think it is a harbinger of things to come later on...
Alex's a good surfer.
246. vis0

Quoting 213. MAweatherboy1:

I'd guess Alex has been a hurricane for close to 12 hours. Excellent structure.


If i could i'd plus the image, Hurricane? 12 hrs? i'd say 6 hrs BUT ITS WINTER so even if it looked like a hurricane for 59secs WOW! ...now someone pass on To Plazared Patrap's link to the guide to surviving a TS. wild Brazil has higher odds of a TS and now its Portugal's? turn? and from a formation that began off the USofA coast and still plenty of warmth to go around the world setting other warm season related records worldwide.
I think Alex is now a Category 2 hurricane.
...FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS SEVERE, OVERNIGHT-FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY
STRONG, AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT. A POSSIBLE TORNADO AND/OR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

TORNADOES: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A TORNADO OVERNIGHT.

WIND: WINDS MAY GUST TO 55 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVER ALL LOCAL WATERS STARTING TONIGHT.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVERNIGHT.

249. Sooon
Quoting 233. MahFL:






Webcams Spotazores

Link
I don't believe there is a hurricane in the Atlantic. It is very cold in Fort Lauderdale today, so how is that possible? Don't you watch the weather?

(I don't have a sarcasm flag. I've just learned to roll my eyes in different directions)
Definitely interesting to get the first hurricane of the season in January, under conditions that are less than ideal. Yesterday, the storm looked more tropical in nature and the nature of the convection around the center suggests it was a strong storm than it was initialized to be.
Quoting 244. Dakster:

Wacky weather. So now to look at the little data we have about hurricane seasons when one forms in January... IIRC, I don't think it is a harbinger of things to come later on...
I think its some kind of foreshadowing as well.Just wanted to post these as I have to go in a few minutes

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago
Yeah this is weird. Very weird. Baroclinic forcing actually improves as SST cools. Heads up Azores

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 1h1 hour ago
Both HWRF and GFS show #Alex satellite presentation improving next 24 hours due to QG forcing from the west.
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 38m38 minutes ago
Jet coupling helps #Alex next 24hr. Left exit region of west jet, right entrance of north jet, entrance of Spain jet
Quoting 243. cRRKampen:


See first paragraph in #239, it adresses this question.


Not really. It addresses what they believe causes the instability, but I thought it was an absolute requirements to have SSTs of 26.5-27C. The SSTs below Alex aren't even close to that. At the minimum, it deserves more explanation by the NHC. These are the types of things conspiracy theorists use as fuel.
255. vis0

Quoting 219. Dakster:

Gro - Alex could turn into on heck of a Nor'Easter huh? Just need the models to shift a little more.
i thought it (now Alex) was going into Newfoundland / Greenland as a subtropical thingy and the next LOW off Florida into Long Island/ Boston.  Oh well, that maybe shows how strong El Nino's influence w/aGW is still above 2.1 as then LOWs still are pushed towards the ATL instead of re-curving up the East coast.   WE need to input into the GFS data from 20-40 million years ago when co2 was this high, though then the Atlantic might be half its width and volcanic ash might get sucked in by Hurricanes or Tornadoes...there's a movie: Ashnadoes?
It appears for now the Sunday threat won't be as significant as the GFS was showing, although I still think we'll see some flakes fly around Sunday and possibly into Monday as a shortwave dives through the Great Lakes. The next big story is for next week, which the majority of the global models and their ensembles show a potential southern stream system impacting the Ohio/Tenn River Valleys to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, but as always it's far out and things can and will change.


January SSTs in the North Atlantic? It's a piece of cake for skilled Alex...
Quoting 242. tampabaymatt:



I thought one of the long standing facts about hurricanes is that they require SSTs of 26.5C in order to be sustained? The waters below Alex are several degrees below that. I'm not sure how this is a hurricane unless the NHC is saying that SST principle is incorrect.

That is a general rule. There are exceptions. If instability is higher than average, that can offset cool waters. This happened with 2012's Chris as well

Increased instability (from anomalous upper-level trough) --> formation of convection near the core --> latent heat release --> transition to warm core and intensification
Quoting 253. tampabaymatt:



Not really. It addresses what they believe causes the instability, but I thought it was an absolute requirements to have SSTs of 26.5-27C. The SSTs below Alex aren't even close to that. At the minimum, it deserves more explanation by the NHC. These are the types of things conspiracy theorists use as fuel.

Climate revisionists use anything as foul fuel and I don't care what they make of bona fide discours.

It was never an 'absolute' requirement, though in practice it does serve as a kind of threshold. But true hurricanes have indeed formed over cooler waters.
The main thing is vertical temperature difference (and the usual parameters like air moisture and shear). It looks like global warming could create a new breed of circle symmetrical, warm core convective systems, those in winter time, due to surface warming vs lesser upper air warming.
I already like to speculate about some near-future flooding possibilities in the UK..
In reality we'll still have to see if Alex is a freak event and whether such systems remain as rare as they used to be.
260. vis0

Quoting 227. ricderr:

and there goes my prediction for 2016 with no hurricanes....afraid i lost again :-)
not to worry there's always 20017 AF. (pass the prediction to Grothar he'll post them)

(not a typo)

(AD becomes AF) Anthropogenic Fin
although there are certain accepted conditions for cyclogenesis, it shows that there are other conditions which play a part in the development of tropical cyclones. we have also seen the reverse in that, there times where all the conditions for tropical development are met, yet the seedlings never make it to cyclone status. there is still much to learn about cyclogenesis.
75 kt hurricane in January, what a time to be alive, maybe

And Snape just died :( poor start to the year in that regard


Presentation continues to improve with each frame
Quoting 259. cRRKampen:


Climate revisionists use anything as foul fuel and I don't care what they make of bona fide discours.

It was never an 'absolute' requirement, though in practice it does serve as a kind of threshold. But true hurricanes have indeed formed over cooler waters.
The main thing is vertical temperature difference (and the usual parameters like air moisture and shear). It looks like global warming could create a new breed of circle symmetrical, warm core convective systems, those in winter time, due to surface warming vs lesser upper air warming.
I already like to speculate about some near-future flooding possibilities in the UK..
In reality we'll still have to see if Alex is a freak event and whether such systems remain as rare as they used to be.


I have read it to be an absolute requirement, but perhaps I interpreted it incorrectly. I still think it deserves further explanation from the NHC before the conspiracy theorists come out with "the NHC is fabricating hurricanes in January to make it seem like global warming is real". I tend to agree with you that climate change will probably lead to more weird storms like this in the future.
early bird Alex is out of whack! where is it getting the energy from?!?
Last hurricane (warm-core) to form in the month of January (not transitioning from the previous month)...1938. Upon looking this up 1937 transitioned from a neutral year with a warm-phase pdo into likely a la nina year in 1938.

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Even the Dvorak Image is impressive

Quoting 264. tampabaymatt:


I have read it to be an absolute requirement, but perhaps I interpreted it incorrectly. I still think it deserves further explanation from the NHC before the conspiracy theorists come out with "the NHC is fabricating hurricanes in January to make it seem like global warming is real". I tend to agree with you that climate change will probably lead to more weird storms like this in the future.

Again, climate revisionists fake anything. I'm dealing with a couple who steadfastly hold on to 'the hiatus - an ice age cometh' (just because I find amusement in bullying the bullies if nothing else is to be had from it). For them I defined 'the hiatus' as 'yeah, only records'...
They could look at a sat image or loop of Alex, whose appearance is as clear as can be, and they will simply make nothing of it. Or, see a few remarks made here on this very thread by people who can actually follow Alex live. See what they make of the title of OP (they pretend that before the 'climate hype' or before 1771 or before whatever year any records start, two simultaneous hurricanes on the northern hemisphere in January happened every January week of every year...).

Actually I do agree with wishing for an NHC analysis. But not in view of climate revisionists, just for the physics fun of it.
272. vis0

Quoting 265. FyrtleMyrtle:

early bird Alex is out of whack! where is it getting the energy from?!?
• some say aGW  ( )
• others say ENSO - El Nino  ( )
• still Others say aGW with El Nino (x)

still others just buurrrrrrrr RRRRRRRRRRRRRRP and say beat soup gas.
naaa nothing weird to see here please move along......
Quoting 272. vis0:


• some say aGW  ( )
• others say ENSO - El Nino  ( )
• still Others say aGW with El Nino (x)

still others just buurrrrrrrr RRRRRRRRRRRRRRP and say beat soup gas.



I say NGW (Natural Global Warming).
Azores sea temp, is 15-16ºC



GFS 12z looks really good for next weekend. Over a foot of snow.
The long range models did well with Alex. When a few of us started posting possible development of a tropical system in the Atlantic more a week ago, few agreed. If you go back and look at some of the models, they were quite accurate even to the possible track.

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.2.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 14 JAN 2016 Time : 154500 UTC Lat : 31:56:56 N Lon : 28:09:03 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.7 / 970.7mb/ 82.2kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.7 4.7 4.7 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km Center Temp : +4.8C Cloud Region Temp : -46.5C Scene Type : EYE Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 95km - Environmental MSLP : 1014mb Satellite Name : MSG3 Satellite Viewing Angle : 48.0 degrees
Quoting 187. NativeSun:

Hi, yes this unprecedented, but it has happened before climate change was such a hot blog topic, an in recent times, but then those storms were not caused by climate change, so why is this one. Lets get our heads out of the sand and try to figure the cause, before we are engulfed in another ice age.
Unlikely, but not impossible for global warming to cause an Ice Age..We do not know for sure what large changes with the Earths ocean currents might do to the climate.
Haven't posted since last year, but now that Hurricane season has officially begun with Hurricane Alex, I'll begin the new year off! BTW Alex is looking like a cat 2
2016, the Year the Climate tells Humanity,

Yo, Science'

Jack Daniel's imbibing comes to my mind.

: P
Tweet from Stu Ostro


98P

Quoting 282. Camerooski:

Haven't posted since last year, but now that Hurricane season has officially begun with Hurricane Alex, I'll begin the new year off! BTW Alex is looking like a cat 2



Is it on a track to hit S FL? Just kidding.......
Quoting 275. HurricaneFan:



I say NGW (Natural Global Warming).


And what would be the mysterious forcing behind that?
Uh oh. Each frame makes me believe more and more 98P is gonna become the next S. Pacific cyclone.
Quoting 280. hydrus:

Unlikely, but not impossible for global warming to cause an Ice Age..We do not know for sure what large changes with the Earths ocean currents might do to the climate.


When one read's a lot, like I do,..you can easily show the uninformed what is duly wrong with their statement or their unproven assertion.


Absolutes are a terrible way to engage the Proven Science we have today.

Anyone with a short history of the subject of Climate Change knows that before we began the great fossil fueled era we reside in today, the Earth was naturally heading towards a colder Global climate.


Global warming 'delays next ice age by 50,000 years'
Man-made carbon emissions mean the world is unlikely to see another ice age for 100,000 years - 50,000 years later than without human influence




Emily Gosden By Emily Gosden7:24PM GMT 13 Jan 2016 Comments580 Comments

Man-made global warming has delayed the next ice age by 50,000 years, researchers have claimed.
The next ice age is not likely to begin until 100,000 years from now - 50,000 years later than would otherwise have been expected, according to a study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The researchers said that ice ages were brought on by a combination of long-term shifts in the Earth's orbit around the sun, and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
The carbon emissions produced by humans burning fossil fuels would be sufficient to radically delay the timing of the next ice age, they predicted.

Andrey Ganopolski, lead author of the study, published in the journal Nature, said that over the past million years the world had gone through glacial cycles, lasting about 100,000 years each.
In each cycle, roughly 80,000 to 90,000 years were an "ice age" in which large ice sheets covered North America and Eurasia.

"Our study shows that relatively moderate additional anthropogenic CO2-emissions from burning oil, coal and gas are already sufficient to postpone the next ice age for another 50,000 years."
Andrey Ganopolski, PIK

The remaining 10,000 to 20,000 years were "interglacials" - warmer periods such as now, when when no ice sheets over northern continents.
Although the last ice age ended about 10,000 years ago, the study found that even without man-made climate change, there would be "an unusually long period in between ice ages" and the next ice age would not begin until 50,000 years from now.

Mr Ganopolski said this was due to "very peculiar combinations of the parameters of Earth orbit, namely, that the Earths orbit will remain almost perfectly circular for very long time".
But with the added impact of carbon emissions, the next ice age would not be expected until 100,000 years from now.

"Our study shows that relatively moderate additional anthropogenic CO2-emissions from burning oil, coal and gas are already sufficient to postpone the next ice age for another 50,000 years," he said.
"If the next glacial inception will occur in 100,000 years from now, the entire glacial cycle will be skipped, which never happened during the past million years.
"It is mind-boggling that humankind is able to interfere with a mechanism that shaped the world as we know it."

Fossil fuel companies risk plague of lawsuits as tide turns on climate change
Emissions from burning fossil fuels will delay the next ice age, the researchers said. Photo: ALAMY
Prof Andrew Watson of the University of Exeter said the study confirmed that humans had "cancelled the next ice age".

"Humans now effectively control the climate of the planet," he said.
"If only we were wise enough to be able to use that power responsibly, this might be a good thing, as a planet that avoided major ice ages would probably be better for most of the species living on it.
"Unfortunately, I don't think we've reached that level of wisdom yet."

Prof Richard Allan, of the University of Reading, said the benefit of global warming in delaying the distant prospect of the next ice age was irrelevant compared with the imminent dangerous impacts of climate change.

"The many tens of thousands of years after which the next ice age may commence is very long compared to the appearance of modern human societies and is therefore not worth worrying about compared to immediate concerns about damaging human-caused climate change expected over the coming decades if no action is taken to mitigate this likelihood."
Sun is coming out here in St. Petersburg, FL. Does that change anything in regards to the instability for tomorrow's possible severe weather?
Inb4 the FL wishcasters say that their is an invisible jet stream/trough that is going to mysteriously teleport Alex into S. FL
Trends continue to support suppression of any gulf coastal low in 6-7 days, as a result I am highly skeptical of any storm claims.

1.2" snow in boston this year and counting, of which I was present for .3".
What a fun winter.
Quoting 290. Drakoen:


I thought we learned.....
Quoting 290. Drakoen:





This year I believe nothing beyond 120 hours, especially on the GFS.
298. wpb
they dont even update the headlines when we have a january hurricane.














Fascinating! Click to get the loop:

Using a long animation of GOES-13 6.5 Water Vapor images covering the 06-13 January period, the origination of Subtropical Storm Alex could be traced back to a strong mid-latitude cyclone that moved off the southeast coast of the US. Source: CIMSS Satellite Blog
Many thanx to Xandra for the 2015 compilation as the numbers are clear as to the warming,..in a staggering display of our Global dilemma.

Quoting 154. Xandra:

From Berkeley Earth:

YTD Extremes: Jan-Dec 2015



Record Low: 0.16%
Extreme Low: 0.14%
Very Low: 0.5%
Below Average: 6.74%
Near Average: 12.25%
Above Average: 29.6%
Very High: 21.63%
Extreme High: 12.05%
Record High: 16.92%

Time Series Land & Ocean



Trend Maps




Period Trend C/decade
1850-Present 0.058 C/decade
1900-Present 0.083 C/decade
1950-Present 0.117 C/decade
1970-Present 0.173 C/decade
1990-Present 0.176 C/decade

More >>
Still think alex looks just like the jan 1995 medicane .... if this thing was in the Mediterranean sea we would be arguing if it was tropical or not ... and alex also prooves tropical cyclogensis CAN happen with 68 F water .... makes you wonder how long before a Mediterranean cyclone season is officially recognized
302. 882MB
Quoting 299. barbamz:

Fascinating! Click to get the loop:

Using a long animation of GOES-13 6.5 %uFFFDm Water Vapor images covering the 06-13 January period, the origination of Subtropical Storm Alex could be traced back to a strong mid-latitude cyclone that moved off the southeast coast of the US. Source: CIMSS Satellite Blog




That was absolutely an amazing loop, I had to save it. :)
Quoting 301. hurricaneryan87:

Still think alex looks just like the jan 1995 medicane .... if this thing was in the Mediterranean sea we would be arguing if it was tropical or not ... and alex also prooves tropical cyclogensis CAN happen with 68 F water .... makes you wonder how long before a Mediterranean cyclone season is officially recognized

In NOAA's overview site "Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters" a new rubric for the Mediterranean Sea had been created this year. Only there wasn't any medicane this autumn due to a very stubborn subtropical high anchored over there for many weeks or even months. Waters had been very warm in the Med last year, but usually you need a trough with cold air aloft to get a medicane going.
wow I cant believe this Hurricane Alex in January Unbelievable!
Quoting 253. tampabaymatt:



Not really. It addresses what they believe causes the instability, but I thought it was an absolute requirements to have SSTs of 26.5-27C. The SSTs below Alex aren't even close to that. At the minimum, it deserves more explanation by the NHC. These are the types of things conspiracy theorists use as fuel.
I think the reason 26.5 is used as the normal baseline is the relationship to usual air temps in the MDR and Carib. As I mentioned earlier, the instability that drives the formation and maintenance of such a storm is based on temperature difference, not absolute temperatures. When the difference is sufficient for instability, apparently all it takes is for conditions to set up a spin and give the thunderstorms a chance to fire up. In a warmer moister atmosphere the heat of condensation takes over and adds energy to the system that pushes the convection. If the water is warmer than normal and the air is warmer than normal, regardless of what "normal" actually is, off we go!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 281. tennesseebound:

There's no need to worry about "Climate Change". The human race will destroy itself with other means such as nuclear weapons, chemical weapons and biological weapons long before "Climate Change" can have any serious adverse effect.
So under which of those three categories does greenhouse gas fall into?
Climate change 'made record UK rainfall in December more likely

Study finds global warming made Britain 50-75% more likely to receive catastrophic rainfall that caused floods, but natural variation also played a role


Link
Quoting 280. hydrus:

Unlikely, but not impossible for global warming to cause an Ice Age..We do not know for sure what large changes with the Earths ocean currents might do to the climate.
Unlikely, but not impossible for my Powerball ticket to hit the jackpot.
Quoting 307. aquak9:

So under which of those three categories does greenhouse gas fall into?

All three, in a way: as a catalyst, like.
"The earliest named storm on record in the Central Pacific, Hurricane Pali, formed on January 7, and now the Atlantic has joined the early-season hurricane party, with Subtropical Storm Alex spinning up into history with 50 mph winds in the waters about 785 miles south-southwest of the Azores Islands."

Actually, these are unprecedented late-forming storm systems.
It is simply because in much of the world (but not all), we use a horribly out-of-date calendar system, that does not correspond to any naturally occurring events.
We also know that there is a pronounced lag-time effect in climate systems.
Correctly, we should use the Northward Equinox to demarcate annual climatic events in the Northern Hemisphere.
314. Wrass
Head to port. Now!!