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Unprecedented May heat in Greenland; update on 2011 Greenland ice melt

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:53 PM GMT on May 31, 2012

The record books for Greenland's climate were re-written on Tuesday, when the mercury hit 24.8°C (76.6°F) at Narsarsuaq, Greenland, on the southern coast. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, this is the hottest temperature on record in Greenland for May, and is just 0.7°C (1.3°F) below the hottest temperature ever measured in Greenland. The previous May record was 22.4°C (72.3°F) at Kangerlussuaq (called Sondre Stormfjord in Danish) on May 31, 1991. The 25.2°C at Narsarsuaq on June 22, 1957 is the only June temperature measured in Greenland warmer than yesterday's 24.8°C reading. Wunderground's extremes page shows that the all-time warmest temperature record for Greenland is 25.5°C (77.9°F) set on July 26, 1990. The exceptional warmth this week was caused by the combination of an intense ridge of high pressure and a local foehn wind, said the Danish Meteorological Institute. The unusual May heat has extended to Scotland, which had its hottest May temperature on record on May 25 at Achnagart: 29.3°C (85°F). Greenland's Narsarsuaq has seen a string of 3 consecutive days over 70°F this week--the 3rd, 7th, and 12th warmest days there since record keeping began in 1941. The ridge of high pressure responsible is expected to stay in place several more days, bringing additional 70° days over Southern Greenland. The warm May temperatures could be setting the stage for a big Greenland melt season this summer--the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is predicting a 50 - 60% that the southern 2/3 of Greenland will experience above-average temperatures this summer. They forecast just a 10 - 15% chance of below-average temperatures.


Figure 1. Difference between the number of melt days in 2011 and the average number of melt days during the period 1979 - 2010. Large sections of the island experienced twenty more days with melting conditions than average. Image credit: Arctic Report Card

Why Greenland is important
If the massive icecap on Greenland were to melt, global sea level would rise 7 meters (23 ft). Temperatures in Greenland are predicted to rise 3°C by 2100, to levels similar to those present during that warm period 120,000 years ago. During that period, roughly half of the Greenland ice sheet melted, increasing sea level by 2.2 - 3.4 meters (7.2 - 11.2 ft.) However, the 2007 IPCC report expects melting of the Greenland ice sheet to occur over about a 1,000 year period, delaying much of the expected sea level rise for many centuries. While Greenland's ice isn't going to be melting completely and catastrophically flooding low-lying areas of the earth in the next few decades (sea level is only rising about 3 mm per year or 1.2 inches per decade at present), the risk later this century needs to be taken seriously. Higher sea levels will cause increased erosion, salt water intrusion, and storm surge damage in coastal areas, in addition to a loss of barrier formations such as islands, sand bars, and reefs that would normally protect coastal zones from battering by waves and wind. Additionally, coastal zones are sites of incredible economic and agricultural activity, which would also be negatively affected by higher sea levels. Currently, melting ice from Greenland is thought to cause about 0.7 mm/year of global sea level rise, which is about 20 - 25% of the global total, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published the latest issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 1 June 2012. In 2007, the IPCC estimated that Greenland ice melt was responsible for only 10 - 15% of the total global sea level rise. Ice loss in Greenland is accelerating, and if current ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022. The increased ice loss in Greenland is being driven by a combination of warmer air temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and loss of Arctic sea ice. Ocean temperatures surrounding Southern Greenland have increased by 1 - 2°C since 1990 (figure at right.)

Figure 2. Monthly unsmoothed values of the total mass (in gigatons, Gt), of the Greenland ice sheet from the GRACE satellites. On the horizontal axis, each year begins on 1 January. Each small + symbol is a monthly value. Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. Image credit: Arctic Report Card

Update on the 2011 Greenland melt season
According to the 2011 Arctic Report Card, it was another very warm year in Greenland in 2011, which led to substantial melting of the ice. Here are some of the highlights from the report:

1) The area and duration of melting at the surface of the Greenland ice sheet in summer 2011 were the third highest since 1979.

2) Increased surface melting and below average summer snowfall in recent years has made the icecap steadily darker. In 2011, the icecap had the lowest reflectivity (albedo) of any year since satellite measurements of reflectivity began in 2000.

3) The area of glaciers that empty into the sea continued to decrease, though at less than half the rate of the previous 10 years.

4) Total ice sheet mass loss in 2011 was 70% larger than the 2003 - 2009 average annual loss rate of -250 gigatons per year. According to satellite gravity data obtained since 2002, ice sheet mass loss is accelerating.

Resources:
Wunderground's Greenland page.
Wunderground's sea level rise page.
Danish Meteorological Institute's extremes page for Greenland.

Jeff Masters

Glaciers Heat Sea level rise

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

419 PlazaRed: So here the next calculation of the Greenland ice melt theory, (with the pocket calculator of course.)...According to aspectre's comment at...295, Greenland is loosing about 425 cubic kilometers of ice a year...

Not mine -- Dr.JeffMasters: ...Between 2003 - 2009, Greenland lost an average of 250 gigatons of ice per year. In 2011, the loss was 70% greater than that. -- 70% of 250 = 175 ; 175 plus 250 = 425
We may have some rapid intensification starting here

Quoting OldLeatherneck:


You are to be commended for making an effort to plant trees at every oppotunity you have. However, if you have children or grandchildren who are toddlers, I would hope that you are concerned about the world you are leaving for them. I can understand you are worried about paying the bills. You must understand that the lifestyle you now leading has been provided by the access to cheap energy from fossil fuels. First it was coal and then beginning in the early 1900s it was petroleum. These carbon based resources provided the energy to fuel the industrial revolution, agri-business and the population explosion. By most estimates, 90% of all of the accessible coal, oil and gas resources will be exhausted by 2070. We have already hit the peak production of cheap fossil fuels. Any time oil prices exceed $100/barrel it has a recessionary impact on the entire world's economy. That's why you're having trouble paying your bills. Also, by burning burning these fossil fuels, we have drastically altered the world's climate.

If you care about the future for your children or grandchildren you must care about climate change and begin transitioning away from using fossil fuels.


There is very little evidence proving that global climate change is man made. I have seen terabytes of data over climate change (my friend works at Johnson Space Center), and I only have found a very minute correlation (r=.05) between human activities and temperature variance.
Quoting ncstorm:
People who don't agree with the "agenda" are called fools and uneducated from the "so called respected" bloggers on here and they call other people trolls? Im really out this time!
Don't let people get to you, the arrogant my boast and have loud mouths but foolishness always self destructs in the end and the wise though frequently bombarded have victory in the end.
While we're discussing global warming here's a quick arctic sea ice check... You can see we started the year at record low levels but bounced back to near normal in April due to a lot of young, thin ice. This proceeded to melt and we took a big dive towards the end of April and since then it has declined at a normal pace, remaining slightly to moderately below average.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
We may have some rapid intensification starting here



Maybe..



If that little crack in the MW is indeed an eye forming it has the possibility of RI...and it's under an anticyclone in 5kts shear.

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

Good news! NHC's Storm Surge Unit has joined Twitter. Stay on top of storm surge news and information @NHC_Surge.

There will be information and updates for emergency managers, the media and general public. For example, our first tweet was the peak measured surge during Tropical Storm Beryl.

Here is the link: http://twitter.com/#!/NHC_Surge/followers








04W is in amazing conditions for RI. O_o Seems possible we will get our first NHem category 4 out of this. It's moving out of these decent conditions quickly though.

Quoting ncstorm:


look like the models are trending towards warm core..its been edging ever so slightly towards the warm core



and wasnt Alberto and beryl intialized by the models as cold core as well?
Beryl was cold core, Alberto could've easily been one too
galvestonhurricane sez:


There is very little evidence proving that alcohol consumption causes drunkenness. I have seen terabytes of data over drinkinig (my friend works at the bar down the street), and I only have found a very minute correlation (r=.05) between drinking alcohol and being drunk.




I agree! Gimme a beer.
Since the Hurricane Season is based on Zulu time, the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2012 has officially started.
any one want to chat about our W-Pac storm or anything else in tropics chat?
516. xcool
18z gfs quite interesting in the Gulf ...384 hrs
Quoting yqt1001:


Maybe..



If that little crack in the MW is indeed an eye forming it has the possibility of RI...and it's under an anticyclone in 5kts shear.


Td to typhoon in hours
Quoting galvestonhurricane:


There is very little evidence proving that global climate change is man made. I have seen terabytes of data over climate change (my friend works at Johnson Space Center), and I only have found a very minute correlation (r=.05) between human activities and temperature variance.


That even just sounds like nonsense without having to look into it further. It's not like we're comparing two temperature records here looking for correlations or variances. That's not how you are going to show human activities' roles in climate. The proof is in the physics, not some guy staring down sets of data he gets from a friend. We know the physical properties of greenhouse gases, we know how they behave when their concentrations change, we know that the concentration is increasing rapidly in comparison to similar timescales in our reconstructions, we can see that the source of the greenhouse gases are due to human activities.

Because of the physics, not some correlation of data you got from a friend, we would be able to see the human impact on climate even if natural forces were enough to counter-act most/all of it and cause cooling.
Officially Hurricane Season! Lets have a good year, and let the odds be forever in your favor.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Officially Hurricane Season! Lets have a good year, and let the odds be forever in your favor.


What is this? The hunger games? Nah it's cane season
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
any one want to chat about our W-Pac storm or anything else in tropics chat?


What about the strong storms in Alabama? Not really much happening there though...


Since the Hurricane Season is based on Zulu time, the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2012 has officially started.


Happy Hurricane Season! Let it be a "peaceful" one for residents of coastal areas.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Very true... Though I believe if that tornado from last night had gone over a populated area it would have taken that award... Has that one been given a rating yet? Radar indicated it was probably at least EF 3.


What on radar suggested that?
Quoting weatherh98:


What is this? The hunger games? Nah it's cane season


May the odds be ever in your favour!
Quoting ScottLincoln:


What on radar suggested that?

You may not have been on last night so you might not have seen it... Rotation was unreal, the velocities were very tight and strong.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes. I believe that you are referencing the BEST report conducted by a team at the University of California-Berkley. A well know physicists, Richard Muller, was skeptical of the temperature data for the past 100 years and executives of the oil industry help to fund Muller's research to verify/disprove the temperature data. Richard Muller found that the warming is probably greater than previously thought to be. You can read more about this here - Berkley Report Disappoints Climate-Change Skeptics


The BEST analysis is one of many that came to very similar conclusions.
42 RitaEvac: According to the Navy... [2 "After the Total Meltdown Flood" maps]

I can't imagine which navy other than one that exists solely within the imagination of the writer of the beforeitsnews.com article.
Those maps look like s/he's using a 300metre(1,000foot)* sea-level rise AND
a naive(r than "spherical cow") increase in the gravitational^equipotential in the NorthernHemisphere while ignoring the accompanying decrease in the SouthernHemisphere AND
a highly selective extra300metre isostatic rebound on Greenland and Antarctic continental masses as well as the AntarcticOcean seabed all the way up to the tip of SouthAmerica.

* Which is ~4 times as much as any rise that could be reasonably expected from a total meltdown... assuming that there's non-thermophilic multicellular life left on Earth.
^ ie Simplisticly, the (new) height of sea-level taking into account the (changing) gravitational effects of continental masses and (disappeared) ice-masses on seawater.
I am glad to see the GRACE mission returning so much valuable scientific data. When I first heard of the project I thought it was going to mainly benefit the military, as a large part of the spatial error in earth-observing satellite data comes from the uncertainty in the true satellite position as a function of time. The military aspect of the GRACE mission was to refine modeling of true satellite position using more accurate data on the Earth's gravitational field.

The data on the changing ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica from GRACE is a fantastic bonus of the project that returns a large and exciting public benefit. GRACE is providing more data to guide climate scientists and glaciologists, and additional hard evidence to bury the insincere deniers and their poor misled followers. Go GRACE!
According to WU, it's hurricane season now UTC time.

Break out the Fresca's, popcorn, HeadOn, troll spray, iggy button, because THE 2012 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON has arrived.

Naming list:
* Alberto (used)
* Beryl (used)
* Chris
* Debby
* Ernesto
* Florence
* Gordon
* Helene
* Issac
* Joyce
* Kirk
* Leslie
* Michael
* Nadine
* Oscar
* Patty
* Rafael
* Sandy
* Tony
* Valerie
* William.

The current total stands at 2-0-0.
4W at time of first warning a few hours ago



Now

Oh it's hurricane season?.Because that started for me two weeks ago.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh it's hurricane season?.Because that started for me two weeks ago.

Yeah June 1st is so much less special this year because of the 2 pre-season storms...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
4W at time of first warning a few hours ago



Now



The banding that it has developed is starting make it look like the classic RI setup. The storm starts spinning, the first thing to develop that looks like a strong hurricane is the banding, then the CDO develops and then an eye appears out of nowhere.



We'll see how long it can continue to show these signs though.
I don't know about you guys, but I wanna see another active western Pacific typhoon season again. Not this 18 storm crap. The Atlantic has nearly tied or beaten that in the last couple years. Pathetic.
Inre 527 aspectre... NorthAmerica doesn't look reasonable even then. A 300metre(1,000foot) sea-level rise would connect the Gulf of Mexico with LakeOntario (or rather the new OntarioSea), turning the the US EastCoast into an island* separate from the continent.
The OntarioSea would also connect with the HudsonBay, creating a new island* out of Quebec and areas northward and eastward.

* ie the areas at least 1,000feet above sea-level in the presentday.
This would have been big trouble if the atmospheric conditions were right..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
According to WU, it's hurricane season now UTC time.

Break out the Fresca's, popcorn, HeadOn, troll spray, iggy button, because THE 2012 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
has arrived.

Naming list:
* Alberto (used)
* Beryl (used)
* Chris
* Debby
* Ernesto
* Florence
* Gordon
* Helene
* Issac
* Joyce
* Kirk
* Leslie
* Michael
* Nadine
* Oscar
* Patty
* Rafael
* Sandy
* Tony
* Valerie
* William.

The current total stands at 2-0-0.

No major hurricanes yet? What a bust season!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

No major hurricanes yet? What a bust season!


A 70-mph rare pre-season near hurricane hit the US? What a bust season!
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
4W at time of first warning a few hours ago



Now



Is that a pinhole from the RI? : )
Quoting weatherh98:


Is that a pinhole from the RI? : )


An eye is trying to form, will be small but not that small...



It's on the northern edge of the convective mass.
Probably a monster in the making right here...

Quoting yqt1001:


An eye is trying to form, will be small but not that small...



It's on the northern edge of the convective mass.


Ik I was kidding haha
Quoting hydrus:
This would have been big trouble if the atmospheric conditions were right..


is that upper or lower level low?
Quoting watercayman:


Thanks

No problem.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Check their release on the CSU site betweenn 10-11 AM EDT.

Alright.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


I imagine it will go up at least two named than what they where last predicting.

Yeah. I think I'll release my updated forecast tomorrow.

Quoting nigel20:

Hey TA...do you think they'll increase their numbers?

Yes I do.

Quoting ncstorm:


look like the models are trending towards warm core..its been edging ever so slightly towards the warm core



and wasnt Alberto and beryl intialized by the models as cold core as well?

Alberto and Beryl were initialized as warm core.

Quoting naviguesser:


Sorry - wrong blog - lost my head... ;-0

No need to apologize. :)

Quoting Articuno:

Hey TWX13, how you doin?

I'm fine. Ready for the potential Severe Weather event tomorrow. You?
Quoting weatherh98:


Ik I was kidding haha


Of course, but it's a brand new MW image that I had to show anyways. :P
Quoting chrisdscane:


is that upper or lower level low?


It looks more like a decaying trough to me.
Quoting yqt1001:


A 70-mph rare pre-season near hurricane hit the US? What a bust season!


Clearly you are unfamiliar with sarcasm
Convection is trying to wrap around...



Once it does, RI usually is guaranteed (eyewall complete) unless it hits a wall of bad conditions. Will be a tiny eye though.


WP042012 - Tropical Depression FOUR



Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Updated vis image from about 30 minutes ago.



I think we can agree, this isn't a TD anymore. :P
Quoting yqt1001:
Updated vis image from about 30 minutes ago.



I think we can agree, this isn't a TD anymore. :P

Or can we...?

31/2132 UTC 14.0N 125.7E T2.0/2.0 04W -- West Pacific

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1006.9mb/ 30.0kt
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Since the Hurricane Season is based on Zulu time, the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2012 has officially started.


Whoo-Hoo

started 2 weeks ago as far as I am concerned.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Or can we...?

31/2132 UTC 14.0N 125.7E T2.0/2.0 04W -- West Pacific

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1006.9mb/ 30.0kt


And the official agency at WPAC JMA still has not upgraded to TS.

WTPQ20 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 13.4N 126.8E POOR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 020000UTC 16.8N 125.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04
9:00 AM JST June 1 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 13.4N 126.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 16.8N 125.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting yqt1001:
Updated vis image from about 30 minutes ago.



I think we can agree, this isn't a TD anymore. :P


Like Cody said, don't put too much stock in a satellite image.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Like Cody said, don't put too much stock in a satellite image.

Hey! I never said that. I wholeheartedly believe it is a tropical storm right now, but it won't be declared one officially because of those satellite estimate numbers.
01:01 UTC

WP042012 - Tropical Depression FOUR

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Galvestonhurricane- have you read any.of the studies of how the ocean is becoming over saturated with co2 or how the levels of cold dense waters in the oceans are decreasing rapidly? Frankly, I do not understand why we even debate whether or not man is causitive...time is too critical for all the ego based posturing...take no chances with the futures of our children and grandchildren...err on the side of caution....at the very least we get a cleaner environment...at the most..maybe we slow down climate change until science has solutions...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hey! I never said that. I wholeheartedly believe it is a tropical storm right now, but it won't be declared one officially because of those satellite estimate numbers.


I still stand by what I said. It probably is a tropical storm now, but I've seen tropical cyclones look better than this, with centers seemingly under the convection, only to find out that isn't the case.
RSMC Tokyo ADT

2012JUN01
0100AM 01JUN
T3.6
982hPa
Rain for me!!:)
TD Four-W

ZCZC 317
WTPQ20 RJTD 010000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 010000UTC 13.4N 126.8E POOR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT

GUST 045KT
Poll time:

Taking advantage of the current lull, should I start writing my TCRs now, or wait until the winter?

A: Now
B: Winter
C: Don't do them because you're an idiot
Quoting KoritheMan:


I still stand by what I said. It probably is a tropical storm now, but I've seen tropical cyclones look better than this, with centers seemingly under the convection, only to find out that isn't the case.

Quoting KoritheMan:
Poll time:

Taking advantage of the current lull, should I start writing my TCRs now, or wait until the winter?

A: Now
B: Winter
C: Don't do them because you're an idiot

A.

That's what I plan to do.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A.

That's what I plan to do.


You mean like you promised daily blogs this year? >_>
Quoting KoritheMan:


You mean like you promised daily blogs this year? >_>

Hey >:| I'm doing just fine!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hey >:| I'm doing just fine!


Who forecast Beryl from its inception to its demise? It sure wasn't you. ;)
**REPOST**

Some things to take into consideration:

1. Even though JMA is the official agency in the Western Pacific, it doesn't mean that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center won't classify this as a tropical storm say in about 30-45 minutes from now.

2. When this depression gains Tropical Storm strength (via the Japan Meteorological Agency), the name given will be Mawar.

Quoting KoritheMan:
Poll time:

Taking advantage of the current lull, should I start writing my TCRs now, or wait until the winter?

A: Now
B: Winter
C: Don't do them because you're an idiot


D. Some now, then get distracted and not finish until winter. That's how I'd end up doing it! -__-
Quoting cyclonekid:
**REPOST**

Some things to take into consideration:

1. Even though JMA is the official agency in the Western Pacific, it doesn't mean that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center won't classify this as a tropical storm say in about 30-45 minutes from now.

2. When this depression gains Tropical Storm strength (via the Japan Meteorological Agency), the name given will be Mawar.



It might just be me, but the JMA seems a lot more conservative. Probably due to their systematic use of wind speeds (10 minute).
Quoting KoritheMan:


Who forecast Beryl from its inception to its demise? It sure wasn't you. ;)

Good for you.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Good for you.


I know, right?
Quoting KoritheMan:
Poll time:

Taking advantage of the current lull, should I start writing my TCRs now, or wait until the winter?

A: Now
B: Winter
C: Don't do them because you're an idiot
A I like your reports.
577. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:
Poll time:

Taking advantage of the current lull, should I start writing my TCRs now, or wait until the winter?

A: Now
B: Winter
C: Don't do them because you're an idiot


D. What lull? Time before the official start of the hurricane season counts as a lull? XD
And I will also go with A.
Quoting KoritheMan:


It might just be me, but the JMA seems a lot more conservative. Probably due to their systematic use of wind speeds (10 minute).


I agree. I also hate the fact that they DO use 10 minute sustained winds because most people have no clue how to convert it to 1 minute sustained, me included.
hows severe weather chances looking for south new jersey tomorrow?
Oh boy... LWX don't play with the day before discussion...


ONCE THE WARM FRONT IS THROUGH...CWA WILL BE WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. 12Z NAM/GFS POSITION THE
FRONT OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL OHIO AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH 999/1000 MB LOW
PRESSURE JUST WEST OF CLEVELAND. TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD. FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER OUR CWA. FORECAST SBCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE PLENTY
TO TRIGGER STORMS...AND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. HELICITY ON DULLES AIRPORT NAM SOUNDING
APPROACHES 200 M2/S2 BY 21Z. SPC MAINTAINS SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
Quoting NJcat3cane:
hows severe weather chances looking for south new jersey tomorrow?

Looks likes there's something BEHIND our Tropical Depression maybe trying to brew as well.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Or can we...?

31/2132 UTC 14.0N 125.7E T2.0/2.0 04W -- West Pacific

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1006.9mb/ 30.0kt
Well that estimate is 4hrs old...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

directly on the coast usaully gets spared..probably the same thing will happen tomorrow too
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well that estimate is 4hrs old...

The CIMSS ADT estimates aren't though.
WTPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.5N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.1N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.7N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.6N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 28.4N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 125.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z
AND 020300Z.//

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The CIMSS ADT estimates aren't though.
Hm well whatever, certainly looks like a TS by now
Quoting LargoFl:
.......................................Tampa bay forecast for tomorrow,they are saying these storms might turn bad,we will see huh..but we could really use this rain around here..shields Down Tampa lol


I need them up from 5-9. My daughter has her 8th grade dance tomorrow UGH
0Z NAM says: "Oh, so you like severe weather? Here's even better conditions for tornadoes!









Quoting cyclonekid:
Looks likes there's something BEHIND our Tropical Depression maybe trying to brew as well.

Congrats!
I've been waiting to see who spotted that area first.
It's been an AOI for us here for over 24 hours now.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Poll time:

Taking advantage of the current lull, should I start writing my TCRs now, or wait until the winter?

A: Now
B: Winter
C: Don't do them because you're an idiot


D

"D" stands for Definitely do them, but at a time that meets your schedule and not ours.

Germany produces 50% of energy from solar during mid-day hours — ‘Equivalent to 20 nuclear power stations at full capacity without any radioactive waste left over’


Published: May 31st, 2012 at 8:48 am ET

Germany Hits Record In Solar Power With 50% Of Energy During Mid-Day Hours
Jonathan Turley, Legal Expert
May 28, 2012

Germany’s economy is viewed as the most successful major economy in the world today and the key bedrock for European recovery. While many conservative leaders in the United States are calling on the tearing up of environmental protections to help our economy, Germany has shown the fallacy of that claim. The Germans continue to set new records on environmental protection. This week the German solar power plants produced a world record 22 gigawatts of electricity per hour — literally half of the energy used through the key midday hours in the country.

That is the equivalent to 20 nuclear power stations at full capacity without any radioactive waste left over. The Germans are getting rid of all nuclear plants after the Fukushima nuclear disaster last year. Instead, the entire country will be using greater renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and bio-mass.

This is not some tiny country with a mainly tourism economy but one of the greatest industrial nations on Earth.

[...]

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/26/us-clima te-germany-solar-idUSBRE84P0FI20120526
Quoting sunlinepr:

Germany produces 50% of energy from solar during mid-day hours — ‘Equivalent to 20 nuclear power stations at full capacity without any radioactive waste left over’


Published: May 31st, 2012 at 8:48 am ET

Germany Hits Record In Solar Power With 50% Of Energy During Mid-Day Hours
Jonathan Turley, Legal Expert
May 28, 2012

Germany’s economy is viewed as the most successful major economy in the world today and the key bedrock for European recovery. While many conservative leaders in the United States are calling on the tearing up of environmental protections to help our economy, Germany has shown the fallacy of that claim. The Germans continue to set new records on environmental protection. This week the German solar power plants produced a world record 22 gigawatts of electricity per hour — literally half of the energy used through the key midday hours in the country.

That is the equivalent to 20 nuclear power stations at full capacity without any radioactive waste left over. The Germans are getting rid of all nuclear plants after the Fukushima nuclear disaster last year. Instead, the entire country will be using greater renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and bio-mass.

This is not some tiny country with a mainly tourism economy but one of the greatest industrial nations on Earth.

[...]

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/26/us-clima te-germany-solar-idUSBRE84P0FI20120526


Get ready for the Fourth Reich, everyone....
461 aspectre: This isn't chat. What would be polite in chat is impolite in a forum...
...as well as against blog rules.
464 Articuno: Okay.

No chiding intended. It's just that we've already had eg catastropheadjuster become extremely frustrated and leave because s/he thought we were deliberately "ignoring" her/him.
The reality was that the high quality of his/her postings on various (mostly non-controversial) topics left little-to-nothing to add. Hence a lack of responses...
...other than PLUSes. And apparently, s/he didn't check back for them.
Next question:

When I do my TCRs, should I include 6-hourly "best" track" coordinates, including latitude/longitude, minimum pressure, and intensity estimates?

A: Yes
B: No
598. wxmod
I prayed, and the lord made some weather.

599. wxmod
It's the lords work. I love the lord.

600. wxmod
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Get ready for the Fourth Reich, everyone....


What's that got to do with Solar Power? You're showing your prejudice!
594. That's an interesting story but I think the more important point is Germany's been making moves for years to reduce carbon-based fuels. The move from nuclear to solar is CC neutral. The US could have done the same thing, but back in the post-war years Germany was busy rebuilding, and the US was apparantly busy making deep geo-political ties that keep the oil flowing, and finance the multi-national oil companies who do their best to throw up propaganda like flak regarding CC.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


D

"D" stands for Definitely do them, but at a time that meets your schedule and not ours.


Technically, by your own admission of me wanting to do them, you're still providing me with a definitive timespan in which to do them. i.e., before the season ends. Just sayin. ;)
So...
Who is going to stay up for the First TWO of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
...not me : )
Quoting sunlinepr:

Germany produces 50% of energy from solar during mid-day hours — ‘Equivalent to 20 nuclear power stations at full capacity without any radioactive waste left over’


Published: May 31st, 2012 at 8:48 am ET

Germany Hits Record In Solar Power With 50% Of Energy During Mid-Day Hours
Jonathan Turley, Legal Expert
May 28, 2012

Germany’s economy is viewed as the most successful major economy in the world today and the key bedrock for European recovery. While many conservative leaders in the United States are calling on the tearing up of environmental protections to help our economy, Germany has shown the fallacy of that claim. The Germans continue to set new records on environmental protection. This week the German solar power plants produced a world record 22 gigawatts of electricity per hour — literally half of the energy used through the key midday hours in the country.

That is the equivalent to 20 nuclear power stations at full capacity without any radioactive waste left over. The Germans are getting rid of all nuclear plants after the Fukushima nuclear disaster last year. Instead, the entire country will be using greater renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and bio-mass.

This is not some tiny country with a mainly tourism economy but one of the greatest industrial nations on Earth.

[...]

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/26/us-clima te-germany-solar-idUSBRE84P0FI20120526
Nice, hopefully methods of harnessing solar energy become more efficient in the near future so that the switch to renewable energy will make more sense to the big energy companies. When that happens, things will really start to change.i
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


D

"D" stands for Definitely do them, but at a time that meets your schedule and not ours.
exactly, follow this kori
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
So...
Who is going to stay up for the First TWO of the 2012 Hurricane Season?
...not me : )


Considering I'm always up past midnight...
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
So...
Who is going to stay up for the First TWO of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
...not me : )
I'll be up

The benefits of living on the west coast...
Quoting wxmod:
It's the lords work. I love the lord.

This is horrible :(
It's already hurricane season guys. Wouldn't you say hurricane season runs on GMT?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
So...
Who is going to stay up for the First TWO of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
...not me : )
Me I sleep until 2 or 3. I want to see the first two even if nothing interesting will be in there.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMBO
11:00 AM PhST June 1 2012
=======================================

Tropical Depression "AMBO" continues to move northwestward

At 10:00 AM PhST, A Tropical Depression was located at 14.4°N 126.3°E or 220 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
===================

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
============
1. Catanduanes

Additional Information
=======================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-15 mm per hour (heavy) within the 500 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.

TD "Ambo" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over the western section of Southern Luzon and Visayas.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 p.m. today.
I don't think the Tampa shield is going to hold all this moisture back.
Thunderstorms are already popping in the eastern gulf ahead of model projections, which is a great sign because usually that means explosive thunderstorm development just offshore of the coast by morning.

Just from the visual, it appears there is plenty of low level instability as cumulus growth looks impressive and healthy tonight. Low level winds are also strong, which is necessary for training or repeating of cell development, meaning a good chance of heavy rainfall.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
It's already hurricane season guys. Wouldn't you say hurricane season runs on GMT?


No. I would say it runs on whatever my time is.
Line of thunderstorms forming offshore Pinellas County :)



Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I don't think the Tampa shield is going to hold all this moisture back.


agreed man, see my comment above, it looks good fore rainfall in our area, these type of events favor heavy rain on our coast because of strong low level winds off the warm gulf waters often allow repeated rounds of convection to move onshore and hold strong. Often the inland areas get much less from these events because the high clouds limit instability inland.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

You may not have been on last night so you might not have seen it... Rotation was unreal, the velocities were very tight and strong.


How does radar showing a strong, tight couplet suggest an EF3 tornado?
In some situations there can be a correlation between radar signature and tornado strength... sometimes. The uncertainty bars are large and most of the time the radar is not sampling a tornadic circulation, thus there couldn't be a good correlation. On such rare occasions it might be justified to say "radar is indicative of a significant (EF2+) tornado" but much beyond that is setting oneself up to get burned.
Good evening all...just over an hour to go before June 1
Quoting KoritheMan:


No. I would say it runs on whatever my time is.

Unfortunately, the world does not revolve around you, Kori. ;)
620. wxmod
Dust, red, makes the atmosphere stagnant. Te Earth's atmosphere is stagnated by dust. Dust creates drought and drought creates dust. Clouds can not build without clean air, and therefore cannot rain.

Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all...just over an hour to go before June 1
Aren't you in Jamaica?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Line of thunderstorms forming offshore Pinellas County :)






The atmosphere is rapidly becoming saturated, and the jet energy will help to cause long lived convection with the deep low level flow feeding into developing large scale lift. I saw a model that kept all the heavy rain to the south, but with jet energy digging in, increasing moisture and instability, despite how we've missed out so much lately, I don't think that model is correct.


I'm not expecting 5 inches or anything, but some of us might get it pretty good, I've seen my place get soaked many times from these type of situations.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Unfortunately, the world does not revolve around you, Kori. ;)


Shut up, kid.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Aren't you in Jamaica?

Yes, it's now 10:56PM
Quoting KoritheMan:


Shut up, kid.

Isn't it past your bedtime? Somebody seems a little grumpy.

Anything look interesting?
Quoting Jedkins01:



The atmosphere is rapidly becoming saturated, and the jet energy will help to cause long lived convection with the deep low level flow feeding into developing large scale lift. I saw a model that kept all the heavy rain to the south, but with jet energy digging in, increasing moisture and instability, despite how we've missed out so much lately, I don't think that model is correct.


I'm not expecting 5 inches or anything, but some of us might get it pretty good, I've seen my place get soaked many times from these type of situations.


What I worry though is if these thunderstorms persist into the morning and actually steal energy from the main show tomorrow, leaving us with once again overcast skies with some distant lightning.
And now, officially (and not just WU time) It is the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Happy 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Everyone!!! May our season be full of Cat 5 Annular-Pinhole-West-Fish-DOOM storms that cause no damage or deaths!
Welcome to the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season!

Got first post in the season, do I get an award or something or does that go to first TWO? ;)

Welcome to the season guys.. if you don't believe it actually started 2 weeks ago with our two named storms.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
And now, officially (and not just WU time) It is the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.


Not in Texas, we have one more hour.
Quoting nigel20:

Yes, it's now 10:56PM
Oh yeah that's right you guys don't set your clocks forward for daylight savings time do you? Anyways most considered this season already started since Alberto and Beryl are now long gone. I guess we're just waiting for the "official" start. Actually since the Hurricane Season goes by Zulu time it has already started.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
And now, officially (and not just WU time) It is the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

I still have to wait an hour more
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Got first post in the season, do I get an award or something or does that go to first TWO? ;)

Welcome to the season guys.. if you don't believe it actually started 2 weeks ago with our two named storms.

Actually, you and WxGeekVA were a few seconds early. I got first post of the season. :)

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oh yeah that's right you guys don't set your clocks forward for daylight savings time do you? Anyways most considered this season already started since Alberto and Beryl are now long gone. I guess we're just waiting for the "official" start. Actually since the Hurricane Season goes by Zulu time it has already started.

Well, that's true!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What I worry though is if these thunderstorms persist into the morning and actually steal energy from the main show tomorrow, leaving us with once again overcast skies with some distant lightning.



lol, well think of it this way it's not really about us getting severe weather its about rainfall, if we get a lot of heavy rain over night then who cares? Rain is rain.

I don't think the front it self will have much with it as it will be weakening a lot, the front is just helping to life the tropical moisture north, and jet energy riding along the front and lifting this tropical moisture is going to be the main source of rainfall I believe. You can see the energy moving into the eastern gulf beginning to interact with the moisture lifting into our area.
It's here. Welcome to the 2012 Atlantic Basin hurricane season. I wonder what surprises are in store for us this year. I say lets all make a toast with FRESCA. Cheers!
Hurricane season starts with UTC time... you guys are all late...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Welcome to the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season!



Oh happy day!
641. SLU
It's the most wonderful time of the year!

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Welcome to the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season!

I need to wait an an hour and 47 minutes more.
Well, I gave in. Here's all I have completed on my end-of-season summary blog thus far (June monthly tropical cyclone summary for the Atlantic):

-------------------------------------------------

Although out of season, tropical storms Alberto and Beryl formed in May, prior to the official start of the season. The previous incidence of two May storms was in 1887. In addition, the last time two named storms occurred before the official start of the season was in 1908.

TS ALBERTO MAY 19 - MAY 22 50 KT 60 MPH 995 mb
TS BERYL MAY 26 - MAY 30 60 KT 70 MPH 992 mb

-------------------------------------------------

Of course, there will have to be an addendum or two if some familiar faces decide to show up. But I never said wasn't preliminary.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Actually, you and WxGeekVA were a few seconds early. I got first post of the season. :)



Let's just call it a 3-way tie, mkay?
Quoting SLU:
It's the most wonderful time of the year!


Yes' it is!
Boom Goes the DYNAMITE!
I pay more attention to the seconds on the hurricane season countdown than Indo on the New Years countdown... Is that wrong? LOL
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I pay more attention to the seconds on the hurricane season countdown than Indo on the New Years countdown... Is that wrong? LOL


Nope. I do it too, and everything I do is right. Eh, Cody? ;)
182 DAYS REMAIN
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
182 DAYS REMAIN


Don't ruin our fun. We want it to be perpetual. :(
Then it'll be time to use the new calender. Being unwilling to change calenders every few thousand years goes a bit beyond healthy frugality.

136 PlazaRed: Adding trees is good.
Replanting them may not be good!
I am all in favour of planting new trees where there are none at the moment.
The reason for my comment using a quoted reference was to emphasize the possible error of going headlong into replanting.
Managed planting and replanting of trees often leads to the destruction of most if not all of the other ground plants which in themselves take up large amounts of CO2. This has been shown to have happened in parts of the Amazon rainforest. Pine plantations are another example.
A return to natural vegetation of areas would seem a more useful long term approach.
The end results of some tree planting and replanting may be less CO2 being taken up by the trees than allready is by the present vegetation.


Yep, old growth forests are over twice as efficient as tree plantations at converting CO2 and sunlight into biomass. And even more so because organic debris produced in old forests is converted with high efficiency into detrivores including saprophytic plants that have low need for sunlight as well as fungi such as mushrooms that store the main of their bodies underground or within rotting trunks.
Even a natural meadow is more efficient than tree plantations or other agricultural uses.

It's nice to talk about planting ornamental trees, but for most of the time of their existence, nearly-all-to-most of the available sunlight is hitting the ground. Ornamental trees are unlikely to ever have anywhere near the sunlight&CO2 biomass-production efficiency as even an old orchard.
And again, the ground beneath ornamental trees is unlikely to have even half the sunlight&CO2-to-biomass production efficiency as a natural meadow, or near that of old orchards for that matter, let alone the natural undergrowth of old forests.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nope. I do it too, and everything I do is right. Eh, Cody? ;)

Yes, your highness
Quoting Jedkins01:



lol, well think of it this way it's not really about us getting severe weather its about rainfall, if we get a lot of heavy rain over night then who cares? Rain is rain.

I don't think the front it self will have much with it as it will be weakening a lot, the front is just helping to life the tropical moisture north, and jet energy riding along the front and lifting this tropical moisture is going to be the main source of rainfall I believe. You can see the energy moving into the eastern gulf beginning to interact with the moisture lifting into our area.


They might have to be severe systems just in order to bring some rain.
That line of storms to the west is growing larger and stronger practically with each frame. You can see how the upper energy is inducing large scale lift across all the moisture now.


Moisture is getting really high so expect high rainfall rates 2 inches an hour with average cells and 3 to 5 inch per hour with strong cores, just like we expect heading into June.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Isn't it past your bedtime? Somebody seems a little grumpy.


Lol
Quoting CybrTeddy:


They might have to be severe systems just in order to bring some rain.


Watch the radar, its looking pretty good, I'm not ensuring anything till it really starts pouring around here, but it looks good overnight.
Nice line of storms forming west of Tampa Bay. Really developing rapidly. PW values are pretty high and with the lift I am not surprised at this.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Watch the radar, its looking pretty good, I'm not ensuring anything till it really starts pouring around here, but it looks good overnight.


Looks somewhat impressive, but to be honest I prefer the big daytime heating thunderstorms.
So who predicted this for June 1st?


...and who had this?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
182 DAYS REMAIN


Lol
Quoting AllStar17:
So who predicted this for June 1st?


...and who had this?
I'm just so in love with your graphics man. And yeah I want to know who had Beryl making landfall on Jacksonville Beach? And Bud ended up being a dud like Don last year. The competition is on now to see which basin will get to the third storm first.
Quoting aspectre:
Then it's time to use the new calender. Being unwilling to change calenders every few thousand years goes a bit beyond healthy frugality.

136 PlazaRed: Adding trees is good.
Replanting them may not be good!
I am all in favour of planting new trees where there are none at the moment.
The reason for my comment using a quoted reference was to emphasize the possible error of going headlong into replanting.
Managed planting and replanting of trees often leads to the destruction of most if not all of the other ground plants which in themselves take up large amounts of CO2. This has been shown to have happened in parts of the Amazon rainforest. Pine plantations are another example.
A return to natural vegetation of areas would seem a more useful long term approach.
The end results of some tree planting and replanting may be less CO2 being taken up by the trees than allready is by the present vegetation.


Yep, old growth forests are over twice as efficient as tree plantations at converting CO2 and sunlight into biomass. And even more so because organic debris produced in old forests is converted with high efficiency into detrivores and saprophytic plants that have low need for sunlight as well as fungi such as mushrooms that store the main of their bodies underground or within rotting trunks.
Even a natural meadow is more efficient than tree plantations or other agricultural uses.

It's nice to talk about planting ornamental trees, but for most of the time their existence, nearly-all-to-most of the available sunlight is hitting the ground. Ornamental trees are unlikely to ever have anywhere near the sunlight&CO2 biomass-production efficiency as even an old orchard.
And again, the ground beneath ornamental trees is unlikely to have even half the sunlight&CO2-to-biomass production efficiency as a natural meadow, or near that of old orchards for that matter, let alone the natural undergrowth of old forests.


Something that I don't see addressed is the amount of carbon sequestered by root systems. Some trees have as much mass underneath the ground as above it.

If you're farming a fast growing species which might be harvested in 20 years then you might be sticking a lot more carbon underground than would happen by letting a forest 'go old'. Each generation is going to create a new set of carbon-bearing roots.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm just so in love with your graphics man. And yeah I want to know who had Beryl making landfall on Jacksonville Beach? And Bud ended up being a dud like Don last year. The competition is on now to see which basin will get to the third storm first.


Thank you very much for the compliment. It makes it seem like making them is worthwhile. I love making them and appreciate the feedback. I just try to add more useful info to the blog. In fact, last year somebody mentioned that they were showing the graphics to their students to explain what was going on in the tropics (maybe during Irene?). I don't remember who it was, though.
Good night...hopefully y'all have a good 1st of June!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
182 DAYS REMAIN


Keeper....

Yer killin' me. Don't know if you'll see this post, but...

I've watched the countdown to today and now I'll watch the next countdown....

Lindy
Quoting nigel20:
Good night...hopefully y'all have a good 1st of June!
Good night Nigel!
Quoting AllStar17:


Thank you very much for the compliment. It makes it seem like making them is worthwhile. I love making them and appreciate the feedback. I just try to add more useful info to the blog. In fact, last year somebody mentioned that they were showing the graphics to their students to explain what was going on in the tropics (maybe during Irene?). I don't remember who it was, though.


Congrats. That's quite an accolade.
Quoting AllStar17:


Thank you very much for the compliment. It makes it seem like making them is worthwhile. I love making them and appreciate the feedback. I just try to add more useful info to the blog. In fact, last year somebody mentioned that they were showing the graphics to their students to explain what was going on in the tropics (maybe during Irene?).
There you go your work is going far. Keep up the good work, your contributions here are greatly appreciated.
Thank you very much for the compliments.

Have a great night!
672. wxmod
Quoting BobWallace:


Something that I don't see addressed is the amount of carbon sequestered by root systems. Some trees have as much mass underneath the ground as above it.

If you're farming a fast growing species which might be harvested in 20 years then you might be sticking a lot more carbon underground than would happen by letting a forest 'go old'. Each generation is going to create a new set of carbon-bearing roots.


Sequestering carbon ten feet underground is not really productive, in my humble opinion. You don't happen to work for the timber industry do you?
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


Keeper....

Yer killin' me. Don't know if you'll see this post, but...

I've watched the countdown to today and now I'll watch the next countdown....

Lindy
as one countdown ends another begins so its the way with time
Quoting wxmod:


Sequestering carbon ten feet underground is not really productive, in my humble opinion. You don't happen to work for the timber industry do you?


Why do you ask?
165 Caner: Regardless, you also fail, Earth was in a ice age with CO2 levels thousands of times today's level, so explain that.

No, the (what are now multiple) continents were closer to the equator. The mostly floating ice-sheets at the poles would have experienced strong yearly melting from below; severely limiting their maximum semi-permanent size.
And no again...
...even the highest CO2 level on the chart you provided is only ~17 of times that of presentday levels. And the margin of error is HUGE at that point: coulda been closer to 8times that of today.
1) CO2 levels do not have a 1-to-1 correspondence with the amount of greenhousing. Every doubling of CO2-level increases the temperature by ~3degreesCelsius. The Cambrian Greenhouse effect of 8-to-17 times the presentday CO2 level would produce a maximum* 9degreesC to (a wee-bit-over) 12degreesC of increase.
2) The Sun does evolve noticeably in half a billion years. eg It'll be so much hotter in 500million years that Earth's presentday multicellular life could no longer exist... except for some thermophiles.
The Sun was cooler -- producing less light energy -- 500million years ago than it is now. Meaning that the natural blackbody temperature of an object orbiting at Earth's distance would have been colder.
3) So that extra 9-to-12degreesC from greenhousing would have been added to an Earth that would have been colder from that lower amount of direct sunlight alone.

* Actually less: the higher the concentration of any particular greenhouse gas, the closer to spectrum saturation it is inregard to reflecting the particular InfraRed(heat)frequencies that the gas interacts with.
Kinda like silvered glass. The thicker the silver layer, the more sunlight it reflects and the less it allows into the building. (Think two-way mirrors.) Thick enough, and (close enough to) 100% of the visible sunlight is reflected and no visible sunlight enters the building.
Increasing the thickness past that point doesn't increase the reflectivity. Similarly, increasing the CO2 concentration past a certain level fails to produce any noticeable greenhousing increase.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 010504
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF
NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 12...6...AND
3...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2012 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
------------------------------------------------- ------------
ALBERTO AL BAIR- TOE LESLIE LEHZ- LEE
BERYL BER- RIL MICHAEL MY- KUHL
CHRIS KRIS NADINE NAY DEEN-
DEBBY DEH- BEE OSCAR AHS- KUR
ERNESTO ER NES- TOH PATTY PAT- EE
FLORENCE FLOOR- ENCE RAFAEL RAH FAH ELL-
GORDON GOR- DUHN SANDY SAN- DEE
HELENE HEH LEEN- TONY TOH- NEE
ISAAC EYE- ZIK VALERIE VAH- LUR EE
JOYCE JOYSS WILLIAM WILL- YUM
KIRK KURK

THE ATLANTIC SEASON HAS ALREADY GOTTEN OFF TO A QUICK START...WITH
TROPICAL STORMS ALBERTO AND BERYL FORMING DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1908 THAT TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES
DEVELOPED BEFORE 1 JUNE. TROPICAL STORM BERYL...WHICH CAME ASHORE
NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH EARLY ON 28 MAY...IS THE STRONGEST PRE-JUNE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER
THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE 1
AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM EST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS
HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONALHURRICANECENTER. GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR ATLANTIC TWITTER FEED
IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML ...IN ALL LOWER
CASE.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

www.hurricanes.gov/signup.shtml is a broken link. Fail?
664 BobWallace: If you're farming a fast growing species which might be harvested in 20 years then you might be sticking a lot more carbon underground than would happen by letting a forest 'go old'. Each generation is going to create a new set of carbon-bearing roots.

Root rot. The evolutionary advantage goes to the species that allows its roots to decay into nutrients that'll feed the next generation.

Consider caribou/reindeer. The males drop their antlers, while the females do not. The primary limiting factor to growth in most tundra, grassland, and forest environments is calcium.
Dropping the antlers makes the male more vulnerable to predation. BUT it also makes it possible for vegetation and smaller animals to gain the calcium needed to achieve their own reproductive success.
Predators want the least hassle possible in obtaining their next meal: hunting injuries are expensive both metabolicly and reproductively. Even a mountain lion tends to choose mice and other small critters over big game.
So becoming more vulnerable while ensuring reproductive success of smaller mammals (and birds and lizards and etc) also ensures the successful reproduction of the caribou gene line by the still antlered (and pregnant) female caribou AND later survival of their offspring by providing "easy pickin's" for predators.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks somewhat impressive, but to be honest I prefer the big daytime heating thunderstorms.


I couldn't agree more.
Right now, it seems that low over central America looks like it's going to develop. Tropical cyclones have developed over land before, I think?

Though it is highly likely that it won't, it sure looks like it bodes watching when i gets over water.
Quoting aspectre:
664 BobWallace: If you're farming a fast growing species which might be harvested in 20 years then you might be sticking a lot more carbon underground than would happen by letting a forest 'go old'. Each generation is going to create a new set of carbon-bearing roots.

Root rot. The evolutionary advantage goes to the species that allows its roots to decay into nutrients that'll feed the next generation.

Consider caribou/reindeer. The males drop their antlers, while the females do not. The primary limiting factor to growth in most tundra, grassland, and forest environments is calcium.
Dropping the antlers makes the male more vulnerable to predation. BUT it also makes it possible for vegetation and smaller animals to gain the calcium needed to achieve their own reproductive success.
Predators want the least hassle possible in obtaining their next meal: hunting injuries are expensive both metabolicly and reproductively. Even a mountain lion tends to choose mice and other small critters over big game.
So becoming more vulnerable while ensuring reproductive success of smaller mammals (and birds and lizards and etc) also ensures the successful reproduction of the caribou gene line by the still antlered (and pregnant) female caribou AND later survival of their offspring by providing "easy pickin's" for predators.


I've got to admit that your comment makes no sense to me.

Are you saying that after the first generation of trees subsequent generations use that root-stored carbon rather than CO2 from the atmosphere?



GREATEST RELATIVE SPATIAL OVERLAP/DENSITY OF TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
BE FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN NC ACROSS CENTRAL VA TO CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION. THAT CORRIDOR REPRESENTS SPATIAL OVERLAP OF THREAT FROM 1.
EARLIER/MORE DISCRETE AND DIURNAL CONVECTION...WHERE DISCRETE OR
EMBEDDED/CLUSTERED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SPECIFIC FOCI FOR
LOW-LEVEL FORCING ARE MORE NEBULOUS AND UNCERTAIN...AND
2. MORE CERTAIN ARRIVAL OF LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING QLCS ACTIVITY
CONTAINING EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
FCST HODOGRAPHS...WHILE FAVORABLE IN BOTH REGIMES...DO NOT APPEAR AS LARGE OVER BROAD AREAS AS ON MOST ERN-CONUS TORNADO OUTBREAK DAYS...AND THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES ATTM REGARDING DENSITY/LONGEVITY OF ANY SUPERCELL MODES.

Hopefully they're right about that...but I'll be watchin out tomorrow!


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


GREATEST RELATIVE SPATIAL OVERLAP/DENSITY OF TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
BE FROM N-CENTRAL/NERN NC ACROSS CENTRAL VA TO CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION. THAT CORRIDOR REPRESENTS SPATIAL OVERLAP OF THREAT FROM 1.
EARLIER/MORE DISCRETE AND DIURNAL CONVECTION...WHERE DISCRETE OR
EMBEDDED/CLUSTERED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE BUT SPECIFIC FOCI FOR
LOW-LEVEL FORCING ARE MORE NEBULOUS AND UNCERTAIN...AND
2. MORE CERTAIN ARRIVAL OF LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING QLCS ACTIVITY
CONTAINING EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
681 BobWallace: Are you saying that after the first generation of trees, subsequent generations use that root-stored carbon rather than CO2 from the atmosphere?

Nope. Though the increased CO2 level from rotting might also have a small effect on growth rate, the amount of CO2 already in the air is more than enough.
The limiting factors to growth&reproduction are other minerals and nutrients. And trees store a lot of those minerals and nutrients in their roots. Rotting releases those nutrients in a highly digestible form.
To new trees, the cellulose decay into (mostly) CO2 and methane is just a not-particularly useful side-effect of the nutrient release process. Following rotted rootlines is probably easier and might be "smarter" than driving a new rootline through fresh soil and rock.

What might work sequestration-wise is harvesting the lumber, air-drying it, then turning it into charcoal. Use the flamable volatile gases produced during charcoal-production to heat the lumber to turn it into charcoal. Then stuff the charcoal into coal-mines/etc.
Of course it'd make a lot more sense to not mine the fossil-fuels in the first place -- coal and tar-sands/shale are especially dirty energy producers -- and use the charcoal*gases for energy production (along with charcoal-to-coke directly for industrial processes that need coke).

Foreseeable problem is that the remnant charcoal would also contain elements necessary for life such as sodium, magnesium, potassium, calcium, phosphorus, etc. And I think that the coking process (that'd release those life elements) uses too much energy to allow justification of coke burial.

* LOTs of other organic volatiles in charcoal-gas than the hydrogen, methane, and carbon monoxide produced by the coal-gas process.
685. vanwx
Any tree that shades the ground, lowers wind rake and increases permeability of the soil protects the local hydrologic cycle.
Up in the land of cariboo there is scant soil, just a sponge of moss on top of rock usually; it's a hole different world of nutrient storage.
Deer/etc also drop their antlers. Hang a set on a nearby tree, then watch the squirrels nibble on them.
Quoting aspectre:
681 BobWallace: Are you saying that after the first generation of trees, subsequent generations use that root-stored carbon rather than CO2 from the atmosphere?

Nope. Though the increased CO2 level from rotting might also have a small effect on growth rate, the amount of CO2 already in the air is more than enough.
The limiting factors to growth&reproduction are other minerals and nutrients. And trees store a lot of those minerals and nutrients in their roots. Rotting releases those nutrients in a highly digestable form.
To new trees, the cellulose decay (much into CO2 and methane) is just a not-particularly useful side-effect of the rotting. Following rotted rootlines is probably easier and might be "smarter" than driving a new rootline through fresh soil and rock.

What might work sequestration-wise is harvesting the lumber, air-drying it, then turning it into charcoal. Use the flamable volatile gases produced during charcoal-production to heat the lumber to turn it into charcoal. Then stuff the charcoal into coal-mines/etc.
Of course it'd make a lot more sense to not mine the fossil-fuels in the first place -- coal and tar-sands/shale are especially dirty energy producers -- and use the charcoal*gases for energy production (along with charcoal-to-coke directly for industrial processes that need coke).

* LOTs of other organic volatiles in charcoal-gas than the hydrogen, methane, and carbon monoxide produced by the coal-gas process.


It's late, I'm tired, let me take a quick shot at this...

Trees can have 40% to 50% of their total mass below ground. Those roots are mostly carbon which is pulled out of the atmosphere in the form of CO2.

If you let a tree reach some decent size, cut it down, replant another, then you will sequester another "40%" worth of carbon. Cut and replant - another "40%".

Each growth cycle sequesters more carbon.

Additionally, growing trees absorb more CO2 than do mature trees.

The rotting cellulose of old trees which releases carbon back into the cycle is mainly the portion of the tree/plant which is above ground. Not the root structure.

The rotting structure below ground releases nutrients but (I think) little if any carbon is taken in by roots.

Point is, biomass is likely a carbon negative fuel. Growing trees (or switchgrass, for example) pulls CO2 from the atmosphere and returns less when burned for fuel.

Unless I've got my biology wrong....
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
15:00 PM JST June 1 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mawar (998 hPa) located at 14.9N 125.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 17.1N 125.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 19.0N 126.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 20.4N 126.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
My thought inre 687, BobWallace, is that tree roots rot faster and more thoroughly than you assume.
I could be wrong since I'm basing that on personal encounters with old roots rather than on a survey of the literature.

Oh, and I do know that trees store their extra minerals&nutrients in their root systems. eg Before leaf fall, most of a leaf's crucial minerals&nutrients are transfered to the root system: that transfer being what (near)kills the leaf and weakens its connection to its supporting twig, allowing the leaves to fall.
I just finished compiling my TCR on Alberto. I may add or subtract to this report as new data becomes available. Also, I decided to go ahead and do six-hourly position, intensity, and pressure estimates, as well as a "best track" of the storm (they're not out yet, obviously :P). This seems pretty excessive, and with work, I honestly might not be able to do it. But I'll go down fighting!

Anyways ladies and gents, without further ado, let's get right down to the nitty gritty:

------------------------------------------------- ----

Tropical Storm Alberto

AL012012

19 May - 22 May

Alberto was an out of season tropical storm, the first of two, that developed in the month of May in the north Atlantic. Alberto did not affect land.

a. Storm history

Alberto's origins appear to have begun as early as 10 May. During this time, satellite and water vapor imagery images showed that a well-defined upper-tropospheric cold low, accompanied by a well-marked cold front, entered west Texas. The front entered the Gulf of Mexico early on 12 May. Although the front gradually decayed, it became quasi-stationary over the central Gulf of Mexico, possibly in response to being sandwiched between two high pressure areas. During this time, the front produced intermittent clusters of showers and thunderstorms. The preexisting large-scale cyclonic flow was reinforced in this area by the passage of several shortwave perturbations in the semipermanent mid-latitude pressure belt. The associated cloudiness moved across the Florida peninsula, and entered the western Atlantic on 16 May. The activity moved steadily northeastward and soon became entangled with an approaching trough.

The southern portion of this activity became stationary over the western Atlantic waters, while the northern portion of the trough continued moving northward. Around 1200 UTC 17 May, satellite and radar animations showed that a cloud mass formed over central South Carolina, possibly associated with a weak mesoscale convective system (MCS). This system moved offshore shortly after 0000 UTC 18 May, and later ASCAT data indicated the presence of a small surface circulation. The small low continued to become better organized, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed from it around 1200 UTC 18 May, while centered about 100 miles south of Cape Fear, North Carolina. The "best track" of the cyclone (listed below) begins at this time. Other coordinates, including six-hourly position, pressure, and intensity estimates, respectively, are also given.

The depression became a tropical storm about 6 hr later. Initially, Alberto was embedded in a region of weak steering currents, and drifted slowly southwest. Based on a nearby ship report, the cyclone reached its estimated peak intensity of 50 kt around 2100 UTC. Soon thereafter, the tropical storm began to weaken under increasing southwesterly shear. In addition, water vapor imagery during this time suggests that Alberto was ingesting a very dry airmass over the southeastern United States, which likely counteracted the otherwise favorable sea surface temperature regime of the Gulf Stream. Synoptic steering currents gradually became more defined as a weak upper-level trough moved through the Ohio Valley, and Alberto responded with a gradual turn to the south and southeast, on a track well offshore the southeastern United States coast.

Continuously battered by marginal atmospheric and thermodynamic parameters -- namely dry air and wind shear, Alberto weakened to a tropical depression near 0000 UTC 22 May. At that time, the center became almost completely exposed to the west of a diminishing area of showers. Convection subsequently increased, but this activity was disorganized, and is not assumed to have been sufficient to bring Alberto back to a tropical storm. Later that day, around 1200 UTC, the cyclone became a remnant low while located approximately 160 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Moving northeastward, the remnant low lost its identity within a broad and nearly-stationary trough that extended from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to Bermuda. This same trough would soon assist in the formation of Tropical Storm Beryl.
Alberto past the Gulf of Mexico sounds like Beryl past the Caribbean.
Finally! June 1st! Let's get this party started! Hopefully it will be better than last year. ;)
Last year was kinda nice. Low*casualties, lots of verrry interestink "fish" storms, with only a couple that caused extensive*property damage.

* ie when compared to what easily "coulda been" instead.
Well, I guess another weekend of rain for the Keys :(


SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL AS LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO BETWEEN 40 TO
55 MPH. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN
NEAR 20 MPH. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 2 PLUS INCHES PER HOUR HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE OVERSEAS
HIGHWAY THROUGHOUT THE ISLAND CHAIN...AS WELL AS OVER LOCAL STREETS
IN ALL KEYS ISLAND CHAIN COMMUNITIES...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY ROADSIDE
CULVERTS OR DITCHES.
........good morning folks, cloudy and rain in the forecast for today here in errr..sunny Florida lol..good we need the rain..have a great day everyone..oh..Tampa..lower the shields..lol
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
557 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-012200-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
557 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY INLAND WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
RETURN OF AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Quoting sunlinepr:
Tropical Waves on the way!
Today, June 1st marks the one year anniversary of an EF3 tornado which tore through Springfield, MA leaving three people dead and $140 million in damage in its wake







Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Today, June 1st marks the one year anniversary of an EF3 tornado which tore through Springfield, MA leaving three people dead and $140 million in damage in its wake
That was a deadly storm; I'll never forget the high-rise video of it (though your top image is of last year's Tuscaloosa storm).

happy hurricane season, have fun and be safe (:
Quoting Neapolitan:
That was a deadly storm; I'll never forget the high-rise video of it (though your top image is of last year's Tuscaloosa storm).


Good catch... I put in a different picture... Guess that's what I get for using google images.
Speaking of tornadoes, I ran across this yesterday on Gizmodo. It's a nice-looking map of every U.S. tornado track from 1950 thropugh 2006 (though it doesn't really show track, but rather a straight line connecting the start and end point of each twister. But still.). The stronger the tornado, the wider and brighter the line. Several items are very obvious, such as the high-altitude EF-4 that tore through the Rocky Mountains in Wyoming; the Appalachian void; the long-track Central Florida killer; and the fact that if you love tornadoes, the West is not the place to be.

Click here for full-size image:
tornado
I love tornadoes, far far far away... from anything if I had my druthers.
Instantaneous teleportation to the SouthPole would be the ideal for 'em.

Great map even so.


Oh boy...
Yeeeehawwww...... Hurricane season officially begins, troll season begins on this day also ;) I've got plenty of ammo this year. Let all have a happy season and stay safe. Here's to good tracking. I'm so ready.
blog2108page18comment892 WunderBlogAdmin: Hello Bloggers,
Lets remember to stay on-topic in Dr. Masters' blog! Referencing trolls is not considered on-topic.
Thank you so much!
One heck of a birthday present, the start of hurricane season!
Watching the first wave for development:



pressismilkingit!
A very strong high is expected to build over the Continental US by mid-month. This normally leads to a lowering of pressures in the Gulf and the Caribbean. It could assist in any development of a system there.

Quoting Grothar:
Watching the first wave for development:



That could trigger the development in the caribbean that the GFS is showing.
The "2011TexasHigh" over the MidWest,OldSouth, and the EastCoast?
Would certainly put the UGH into ugly.
Quoting washingtonian115:
That could trigger the development in the caribbean that the GFS is showing.


Yes, it could.
Quoting aspectre:
The "2011TexasHigh" over the MidWest,OldSouth, and the EastCoast?
Certainly puts the UGH into ugly.


That persistant high in the Atlantic doesn't seem to want to go away, either. Could get ugly.

Link


Crown Weather
Well I'm getting ready for what I like to call these types of days.B-day.I'm going to be very busy today.My sons picnic starts at 11:30.So me and hubby have to load the truck to get some of the food down their to the park.Then server weather may foil plans :(.
40 years ago this month, Hurricane Agnes formed in that region. It caused some of the most devastating flooding in the Northeast, especially Pennsylvania.

Check out my new Hurricane video Welcome to Hurricane Season 2012Link
719 Grothar: [map]

A little eastward toward the Georgia coast and the Agnes track would nearly trace the almost expectable neutral-zone / path between the (712 map) projected continental high and the (716 map) lingering Atlantic high.
Oh come on now a tor con of 4?.And the local meteorologist on fox 5 are so stupid in the morning.He is not taking this situation serious. (I'm looking at you Tucker Barnes).I hate watching Alison and Tony in the morning they dumb down everything.....I think this is serious and all they cane do is laugh and giggle at everything and and saw awwwww to my first 5 pics?.Why won't they give people a heads up?.
maybe a MOD risk at the 1630z convective outlook.
Tropics appear dull for now.
Quoting Grothar:
40 years ago this month, Hurricane Agnes formed in that region. It caused some of the most devastating flooding in the Northeast, especially Pennsylvania.

Good morning Grothar. This caused severe flooding on the road my family lived on causing all the homes to be condemned(sp).
725. Jax82
No major Cat 5 hurricane barreling down on the US today? Its June 1st, seasons a bust!

*Sarcasm
Quoting HouGalv08:
One heck of a birthday present, the start of hurricane season!


happy birthday.
Quoting washingtonian115:
That could trigger the development in the caribbean that the GFS is showing.
unlikely
Quoting aspectre:
The "2011TexasHigh" over the MidWest,OldSouth, and the EastCoast?
Would certainly put the UGH into ugly.


It's y'alls turn now. :P
Enjoy the rain, Naples and Tampa! Here in the Cape Coral/Ft. Myers area we have discovered our new calling in life: manufacture of SHOWER CURTAINS!!!! That's right - just a few scattered drops here out of 24 hours of gloom.

(Siiiiiiiigggggghhhhhhhhh....

Forgive me for this rant, but dang, another rain event for us goes "poof!")
727 islander101010: unlikely

Maybe. But ya gotta admit that when puny ol' May has 2 more TropicalStorms than June, a little hurricane in the Caribbean would do a lot to make her look less pathetic.

Speaking of May, is catching 2 TropicalCyclones before the Season opens even legal?
731. wxmod
Quoting BobWallace:


Why do you ask?


Because you are promoting cutting down big trees and replacing them with small trees that you claim sequester carbon faster (without any proof for that thinking). From everything I've heard, up until your statement to the contrary, old growth forests sequester carbon a lot better. Timber industry people always try to vilify old growth trees, therefore I assume you work for the timber industry, or have ties to it.
Although it is hurricane season, we haven't really gotten going yet.
Dr. Rick Knabb does not take over till june 4.
THEN, hurricane season starts.
Quoting islander101010:
unlikely
Actually it's very likely that this could aid development in the caribbean in the next 10 days.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Actually it's very likely that this could aid development in the caribbean in the next 10 days.

too right mate
From SPC D 4-8 Convective Outlook:
AS A RESULT...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NARROW/PINCHED...WITH AN OVERALL BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN
THUS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.





So is this an Omega Block?
I thought that was a spring thing.
Ok please describe the results of this formation.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
From SPC D 4-8 Convective Outlook:
AS A RESULT...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NARROW/PINCHED...WITH AN OVERALL BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN
THUS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.





So is this an Omega Block?
I thought that was a spring thing.

....................gee its been soooo long since we had rain here like this,alot of street flooding but we sure need this rainfall around here
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
From SPC D 4-8 Convective Outlook:
AS A RESULT...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NARROW/PINCHED...WITH AN OVERALL BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN
THUS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.





So is this an Omega Block?
I thought that was a spring thing.


I have seen it during hurricane season..from wikipedia

Blocks in meteorology are large-scale patterns in the atmospheric pressure field that are nearly stationary, effectively "blocking" or redirecting migratory cyclones. They are also known as blocking highs or blocking anticyclones.[1] These blocks can remain in place for several days or even weeks, causing the areas affected by them to have the same kind of weather for an extended period of time
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
From SPC D 4-8 Convective Outlook:
AS A RESULT...AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY NARROW/PINCHED...WITH AN OVERALL BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN
THUS PREVAILING THROUGH MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE.





So is this an Omega Block?
I thought that was a spring thing.

Yep, that's an Omega Block. Low in the west, low in the east, high pressure in the center.
Looks like the NHC doesn't count the 1908 storm as a landfall... and now that i look at the track map, it really didn't. Looks like it passed ~10-20miles off shore like Alex in 2004-- which didn't count as a landfall


"THE ATLANTIC SEASON HAS ALREADY GOTTEN OFF TO A QUICK START...WITH
TROPICAL STORMS ALBERTO AND BERYL FORMING DURING THE MONTH OF MAY.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1908 THAT TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES
DEVELOPED BEFORE 1 JUNE. TROPICAL STORM BERYL...WHICH CAME ASHORE
NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH EARLY ON 28 MAY...IS THE STRONGEST PRE-JUNE
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.Link
Quoting fireflymom:
Ok please describe the results of this formation.




PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
249 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012

VALID 12Z TUE JUN 05 2012 - 12Z FRI JUN 08 2012


USED THE 00Z/01 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR
DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECMWF WAS PREFERRED COMING OUT OF THE SHORT
RANGE...WITH ITS ALLY THE GEM GLOBAL. BOTH OF THESE MODELS
INDICATED LESS DISRUPTION TO THE BURGEONING BLOCK THAN THE GFS AND
GEFS MEAN...WHICH SEND A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DAY 3
THAT DOES NOT ALLOW THE SMOOTH AMPLIFICATION TO BRIDGE THE SHORT
AND MEDIUM RANGES. THE BLOCK WILL FORCE THE POLAR FRONT
UNSEASONABLY FAR SOUTH FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE...WITH ONLY THE
STATES BORDERING WITH MEXICO REMAINING IN SUBTROPICAL AIR. THE
BLOCK WILL ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE FOCUSED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS...WHERE THERE IS A DIRECT
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
713 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

DEZ002>004-NJZ012>014-020>027-020200-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0007.120601T2100Z-120602T0200Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
713 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE...
INCLUDING RARITAN BAY AND DELAWARE BAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THE
TIME OF THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING...HIGH TIDE ON THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT
OCCURS BETWEEN 530 PM AND 630 PM. HIGH TIDE ON THE BACK BAYS...
ALONG DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG RARITAN BAY OCCURS LATER THAN THE
HIGH TIDE ON THE OCEANFRONT.

* SEAS...WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE 3 TO
5 FEET THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...LOCALIZED ROADWAY FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OFTEN RESULTS IN SOME ROADS
CLOSURES. USUALLY... THE MOST VULNERABLE ROADWAYS WILL FLOOD.

DO NOT LEAVE YOUR VEHICLE AT A LOCATION THAT IS PRONE TO TIDAL
FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS. THE
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK IT IS. YOU WILL BE PUTTING
YOURSELF IN DANGER AND YOUR VEHICLE MAY BE DAMAGED... LEADING TO
COSTLY REPAIRS.

FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY
PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).

&&

$$
hey GT..are you guys getting all this rain too? man its pouring here
So that means dry weather for Texas again, sigh.
749. VR46L
First time posting a link ..Hope it works

Lots of moisture coming across the Atlantic

Link
Quoting fireflymom:
So that means dry weather for Texas again, sigh.
yes it sure looks that way so far this morning
Quoting VR46L:
First time posting an image ..Hope it works

Lots of moisture coming across the Atlantic

Link
yes the link works ty
Quoting fireflymom:
So that means dry weather for Texas again, sigh.


It does sound that way from the HPC discussion. But I like Houston's better. And they don't seem to match.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY DRAPED BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR
AND COAST WITH OUTFLOW OUT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE MOST PART EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF
DRIFTING OVER THE SW ZONES AND GULF WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER N TEXAS WILL SAG SOUTHEAST GIVING THE AREA ONE DAY OF DRIER
AIR AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD PUSH BACK
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MOISTURE POISED OFFSHORE AND
THE LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL BE CARRYING 20 POPS FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND THE WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. AN UPPER LOW
EAST OF BAJA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST STALL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE THIS COMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND INCREASE AND
SPREAD FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RICH TROPICAL
TAP SETS UP COMING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF/CARIBBEAN WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER E TX TO NE MEXICO.
Whats going on in near Mexico at the end of the period..also shows low pressures in the Gulf and Caribbean..HPC Sea Level Pressures

I like theirs much better, hopeful for rain.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


It does sound that way from the HPC discussion. But I like Houston's better. And they don't seem to match.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
423 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ROUGHLY DRAPED BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR
AND COAST WITH OUTFLOW OUT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE MOST PART EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF
DRIFTING OVER THE SW ZONES AND GULF WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER N TEXAS WILL SAG SOUTHEAST GIVING THE AREA ONE DAY OF DRIER
AIR AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD PUSH BACK
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE MOISTURE POISED OFFSHORE AND
THE LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL BE CARRYING 20 POPS FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHIFTS AWAY TO THE EAST
SATURDAY AND THE WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. AN UPPER LOW
EAST OF BAJA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST STALL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH
INCREASING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SUNDAY. ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. A PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE TAKING PLACE THIS COMING WEEK. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND INCREASE AND
SPREAD FARTHER INLAND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RICH TROPICAL
TAP SETS UP COMING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF/CARIBBEAN WHILE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER E TX TO NE MEXICO.

2012 FSU COAPS Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast


Excerpt:


This year's forecast calls for a 70 percent probability of 10 to 16 named storms and 5 to 9 hurricanes. The mean forecast is for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and an average accumulated cyclone energy (ACE; a measure of the strength and duration of storms) of 122. These numbers are based on 51 individual seasonal forecasts conducted since May 25, 2012 using sea surface temperatures predicted by NOAA.
New Mexico's Whitewater-Baldy Fire--that state's largest ever, and by a large margin--continues to grow; it has now consumed more than 216,000 acres (337 square miles). The good news: containment is now at 10% (up from 5% yesterday, and 0% the day before).

fire
Everyone in the affected areas stay safe today..

NWS, Wilmington, NC

FOR TODAY...DECENT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
SHOWS FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF CONVECTION...WHICH WILL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EXTENT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS WILL INCREASE
SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE EVENT EVOLVES. IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT WE
WILL SEE WARNINGS ISSUED...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING FROM
DAMAGING WINDS. SPC KEEPS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE SLIGHT
RISK CATEGORY FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.


THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...BUT SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. SOME
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE....pouring rain by me for the last hour
Quoting Neapolitan:
New Mexico's Whitewater-Baldy Fire--that state's largest ever, and by a large margin--continues to grow; it has now consumed more than 216,000 acres (337 square miles). The good news: containment is now at 10% (up from 5% yesterday, and 0% the day before).

fire


Gila National Park is a rare and beautiful park...so sad
I was born in Albuquerque and have been there often.
Extended Range Forecast Of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity And Landfall Strike Probability For 2012

We foresee slightly below-average activity for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. We
have increased our forecast slightly from early April, due to large amounts of uncertainty
in both the phase of ENSO as well as in Atlantic basin conditions. We anticipate a
slightly below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane
landfall.
The Klotzbach and Gray report!...thanks for that TA
That report helps me understand alot more.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Extended Range Forecast Of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity And Landfall Strike Probability For 2012

We foresee slightly below-average activity for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. We
have increased our forecast slightly from early April, due to large amounts of uncertainty
in both the phase of ENSO as well as in Atlantic basin conditions. We anticipate a
slightly below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane
landfall.

CSU is giving Florida the highest probabilities for a hurricane and major hurricane landfall at 47% and 19%, respectively. Second is Texas with 30% and 11%, respectively. Louisiana and North Carolina follow right behind.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Extended Range Forecast Of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity And Landfall Strike Probability For 2012

We foresee slightly below-average activity for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season. We
have increased our forecast slightly from early April, due to large amounts of uncertainty
in both the phase of ENSO as well as in Atlantic basin conditions. We anticipate a
slightly below-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane
landfall.


if there is uncertainty with the phase of ENSO, how can they FORESEE below average activity?
Lots of FL getting rain today... including the Tampa area.

Link
And the 4 analogs are....1953, 1968, 2001, and 2009.









Really confusing analogs, 2 above average seasons and 2 below average seasons. They average out to..guess what! An average season, and that's their reasoning for picking them.
Quoting RickWPB:
Lots of FL getting rain today... including the Tampa area.

Link

Except for Sarasota. Rain has set up both north and south of us. I hope it will eventually fill the gap and bring us much needed rain.
Not a good sign...

NOAA: Carbon dioxide levels reach milestone at Arctic sites

NOAA cooperative measurements in remote, northern sites hit greenhouse gas milestone in April

May 31, 2012

Contact: Katy Human, 303-497-4747 

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Barrow, Alaska, reached 400 parts per million (ppm) this spring, according to NOAA measurements, the first time a monthly average measurement for the greenhouse gas attained the 400 ppm mark in a remote location.

LINK


" Carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas. NOAA calculates the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index every year, which takes into account the heating effects of other gases that are emitted from human activities (e.g., methane, nitrous oxide, and chemicals called chlorofluorocarbons) When those gases are also considered, the global atmosphere reached a CO2 equivalent concentration of 400 ppm in 1985; and 450 ppm in 2003. Atmospheric CO2 levels are currently higher than they have been at any time during the last 800,000 years."


Quoting BobWallace:


Get a life.

Because someone brings up and idea that makes them in the employment of an industry?




Do you understand the difference between CO2 "sequestering" and "capturing"?

Do you understand that talking only about the amount of carbon sequestered above ground ignores the very large amount of carbon sequestered under ground? And do you understand that carbon sequestered under ground is more important than that sequestered above ground? Above ground sequestered carbon is largely going to reenter the carbon cycle via decay or fire.

Don't argue with wxmod. Its like trying to put out a fire with gasoline and lighter fluid.
Quoting ncstorm:


if there is uncertainty with the phase of ENSO, how can they FORESEE below average activity?
Uncertainty, yes. But what is certain in weather forecasting?

There are trends, and patterns - the trick is finding those trends and patterns, then interpreting them.
Quoting yqt1001:
And the 4 analogs are....1953, 1968, 2001, and 2009.









Really confusing analogs, 2 above average seasons and 2 below average seasons. They average out to..guess what! An average season, and that's their reasoning for picking them.

Look at poor Florida. :P
773. SLU
WOW .. CSU increased their numbers from 10 - 13 .. hmmm. It's now a different ball game altogether.
CSU is at 13 named, which is just one above my predictions.
It is really nice to see this rain continuing here in FL. It looks as if we will finally have a "Real Rainy Season" this year.

Look here west of Tampa as it appears a line of strong to severe storms are forming about 100 miles west of Tampa and they are heading east.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
CSU is at 13 named, which is just one above my predictions.
Good morning Ted..I went with 14/8/3. Florida and the gulf coast beware..Would be not surprised to see 1 or 2 Caribbean Cruisers affect the Antilles. I believe Central America and Eastern Mexico catch a break this year. The gulf looks interesting.
Quoting SLU:
WOW .. CSU increased their numbers from 10 - 13 .. hmmm. It's now a different ball game altogether.


CSU is projecting 13 named stroms; actaully they take the two in May and forecast 11 during the normal hurricane season- up from their April forecast of 10 for the season.
Quoting Neapolitan:
New Mexico's Whitewater-Baldy Fire--that state's largest ever, and by a large margin--continues to grow; it has now consumed more than 216,000 acres (337 square miles). The good news: containment is now at 10% (up from 5% yesterday, and 0% the day before.

I saw that from 35,000 feet on a trip last week. Massive cloud formation with turbulence so heavy the cabin staff had to buckle up. You could see the fire racing along a ridge. Amazing.
Mawar looking more and more like a monsoonal monster. Due to this monsoonal type structure, development will be gradual and it will be difficult to rapidly deepen.



*All images are clickable and will open in a new window/tab*
Deleted: Wish I could figure out how I quoted my own post... while adding nothing else.