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Unprecedented June Heat in Northwest U.S. Caused by Extreme Jet Stream Pattern

By: Jeff Masters 2:30 PM GMT on June 29, 2015

A searing heat wave unprecedented for June scorched the Northwest U.S. and Western Canada on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures soared to their highest June levels in recorded history for portions of Washington, Idaho, Montana, and British Columbia; both Idaho and Washington set all-time high temperature records for the month of June on Sunday. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the 113°F measured in Walla Walla, Washington beat that state's previous June record of 112°F, set at John Day Dam on June 18, 1961. In addition, the 111°F reading at Lewiston, Idaho was that state's hottest June temperature on record. An automated station at Pittsburg Landing, Idaho hit 116°F, but that reading will have to be verified before being considered official. A slew of major stations set all-time June heat records on both Saturday and Sunday in Washington, Idaho, and Montana, and at least two tied their hottest temperature for any day in recorded history. A destructive wildfire hit Wenatchee, Washington overnight, destroying twelve buildings. Wenatchee set a new June record high of 109°F on Sunday, just one degree shy of their all-time record of 110°F set on July 17-18, 1941. Jon Erdman of TWC has full details of all the records set. Sunday will end up being the hottest day of the heat wave for most locations in the Northwest U.S. and Western Canada, but temperatures will still be 10 - 15°F above average most of the remainder of the week.


Figure 1. A wildfire burns in Wenatchee, Washington on Sunday, June 28, during the hottest June temperatures ever recorded there. Image credit: komonews.com

What caused the heat wave?
The planet as a whole has experienced its warmest January - May period on record this year, and it is much easier to set all-time heat records when your baseline temperature is at record warm levels. But all-time records require some unusual meteorology, and this week's heat wave was caused by an extreme jet stream configuration that featured a very sharp ridge of high pressure over Western North America and a compensating deep trough of low pressure over the Midwest United States. The ridge of high pressure allowed hot air from the Southwest U.S. to push northwards, and brought sunny skies that allowed plenty of solar heating of the ground. An extreme jet stream configuration also was in evidence over Western Europe, where a strong ridge of high pressure on Sunday brought the warmest June temperatures ever recorded to the Spanish cities of Madrid and Toledo. This sort of extreme jet stream pattern has grown increasingly common in recent decades, as I wrote about for the December 2014 issue of Scientific American (behind a pay wall for $6.) A study published last week by researchers at Stanford University found that unusually intense and long-lived high pressure systems of the kind responsible for heat waves have increased over some parts of the globe since the advent of good satellite data in 1979. In particular, they found that in summertime, these patterns had increased over Europe, western Asia, and eastern North America. As yet, scientists have not come to a consensus on what might be causing the jet stream to behave in such an extreme fashion, though one leading theory is that rapid warming of the Arctic that has led to record sea ice and spring snow cover loss might be responsible.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average at 2 meters (6.6') as diagnosed by the GFS model at 00 UTC June 28, 2015. A sharp kink in the jet stream (Figure 3) allowed warm air to flow northwards into the Northwest U.S. and Western Canada beneath a ridge of high pressure, bringing temperatures up to 20°F above average. A compensating trough of low pressure set up over the Midwest U.S., allowing cold air to spill southwards and cause an usually cool June day. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.


Figure 3. Winds at a height where the pressure is 250 mb show the axis of the jet stream, seen here at 00 UTC June 28, 2015. An unusually strong ridge of high pressure was over Western North America and Western Europe, leading to all-time June temperature records being broken in both places. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.

A few of my recent posts discussing extreme jet stream behavior
Buffalo Belted With Five Feet of Snow; Is Jet Stream Weirdness to Blame? my November 2014 post.
California Drought/Polar Vortex Jet Stream Pattern Linked to Global Warming, my April 2014 post.
Extreme Jet Stream Bringing U.S. Record Heat, Record Cold, and Flash Flooding, my July 2013 post.
Extreme Jet Stream Pattern Triggers Historic European Floods, my June 2013 post.
Are atmospheric flow patterns favorable for summer extreme weather increasing? my March 2013 post.
Where's spring? 2nd most extreme March jet stream pattern on record extends winter, my March 2013 post.
Extreme jet stream causing record warmth in the east, record cold in the west, my January 2013 post.
Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, my April 2012 post.
Summer in March, 2012, draws to a close, my March 2012 post.
Our extreme weather: Arctic changes to blame? my December 2011 post.

Note: I originally posted that Cranbrook, British Columbia hit 98°F (36.8˚C), its hottest temperature of any day since records began in 1901. Weather Records researcher Maximiliano Herrera pointed out to me that Cranbrook has changed location 4 times, and has had five reporting stations. If we consider all of these locations, Sunday's 36.8˚C reading does not set a record. Here are the highest temperatures at the main Cranbrook station:

37.2˚C 7/18/1918
37.8˚C 7/4/1924
38.3˚C 7/12/1940
38.9˚C 7/16 and 7/17 1941
37.8˚C 7/27/1939
37.8˚C 7/12/1953
37.2˚C 8/17 and 8/18 1967

Jeff Masters
Winnipeg Sunset
Winnipeg Sunset
Last Night Route 90 Looking South At The Perimeter Hwy. Smoke In The Air

Heat Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Damp and cool day here in Orange Park, 75F.
Thanks, Dr. Jeff Masters! Brutal conditions for sure.
Summer Heat
Thanks for the new Post Dr. Masters,
Thanks.

Now turn is for Western Europe.
Thanks Dr. Interesting research and theories ahead on this issue as I am not sure (prior to the modern satt and upper air sampling era) whether we had any idea exactly how the jet stream reacted in prior periods during past global warming phases (don't think that you can glean jet stream pattern information from core samples) other than to note the general time frame when past warming events occurred. Fascinating stuff.
Thank you Dr Masters!
Off to the VA Hospital........have a great day all!
Ever since Dr. Jennifer Francis proposed her theory of extreme climate change-induced perturbations of the jet stream being at least partly responsible for some of the increasingly frequent and severe weather events we've been witnessing, I've given more and more credence to her way of thinking. And more importantly, so have a growing number of climate scientists.

Every square kilometer of Arctic sea ice that's lost exposes another square kilometer of open ocean to the atmosphere. Did anyone really think all that suddenly available extra available energy would have no effect on our weather?
Quoting 10. Neapolitan:

Ever since Dr. Jennifer Francis proposed her theory of extreme climate change-induced perturbations of the jet stream being at least partly responsible for some of the increasingly frequent and severe weather events we've been witnessing, I've given more and more credence to her way of thinking. And more importantly, so have a growing number of climate scientists.

Every square kilometer of Arctic sea ice that's lost exposes another square kilometer of open ocean to the atmosphere. Did anyone really think all that suddenly available extra available energy would have no effect on our weather?


Whoever gets stuck in the trough side of the pattern in the winter will probably start to think that frequent three foot snowstorms are "nothing to get worked up about". On the flip side, you'll have fresh salad from your garden for Christmas if you are under the ridge.
Quoting 9. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Off to the VA Hospital........have a great day all!

Have a good day, Joe.
Quoting 11. tlawson48:



will probably start to think that frequent three foot snowstorms are "nothing to get worked up about".

LOL, well it's good for the sleds(snowmobiles) and I guess we can join all the other snowbirds in Florida for a break.
Quoting 10. Neapolitan:

Every square kilometer of Arctic sea ice that's lost exposes another square kilometer of open ocean to the atmosphere. Did anyone really think all that suddenly available extra available energy would have no effect on our weather?
Good question, Neapolitan. No one who understands the basic laws of thermodynamics could think that.

That's really AGW in a nutshell: the entire Earth is keeping more of the energy it gets from the sun due to the blanketing effect of the extra greenhouse gases we are adding to the atmosphere. There must be consequences: the laws of physics guarantee it.
Quoting 5. cRRKampen:

Thanks.

Now turn is for Western Europe.
Indeed. Madrid is at 103.3 right now. If it stands, that's the hottest temperature ever measured there in June, and is even hotter than any day ever experienced in July. (The all-time record there is 105.1 in August of 2012.)

FWIW, last month's heat wave there saw the hottest May temperature ever recorded there, as well.
what happened to that southern jet stream?
Quoting 14. AdamReith:



That's really AGW in a nutshell: the entire Earth is keeping more of the energy it gets from the sun due to the blanketing effect of the extra greenhouse gases we are adding to the atmosphere. There must be consequences: the laws of physics guarantee it.

Taking material from one "closed" system (the ground) and injecting it into another "closed" system (the atmosphere) in the form of gasses has to have an effect, mass balance and all
Quoting 11. tlawson48:



Whoever gets stuck in the trough side of the pattern in the winter will probably start to think that frequent three foot snowstorms are "nothing to get worked up about". On the flip side, you'll have fresh salad from your garden for Christmas if you are under the ridge.


In DC metro I generally expect fresh Christmas greens though it's not a sure thing. I've had lettuce every year since 2010 when I first had access to winter garden space... closeout is early January. Spinach survives the winter here unprotected though I found this winter quality improved with covers. I plan on huge thanksgiving greens salads when the families get together. In 2014, the THANKSGIVING lettuce was threatened by unseasonable mid November cold.

Some varieties of broccoli will eke out survival in our midwinter cold. Arcadia (a cold tolerant variety) was healthy into mid February when the extreme last half of the month almost killed it (some survived). Imperial, a hot weather variety, is killed by November or early December moderate freezes (-5C). I'm looking at Waltham 29 this fall to compare with Arcadia. Fall and winter are actually my favorite gardening seasons because things aren't so urgent.

I'm also going to try overwintering green onions since my wife uses them a lot in cooking.


One frustration is that I can't get decent peas after heavy frost because the flowers and pods are frost sensitive and the plants are large and hard to protect. So the pea season ends in early November here and because of heat it doesn't START until mid October.


I'm skeptical about frequency of blocking patterns in the Jet Stream being greatly increased by AGW. AGW is happening but if blocking is related to weak temperature gradients, we should see more of it in July and August when the climatologically normal gradient is weaker than it is now. BTW the 1960s, (a relatively cold decade where the centrury warming trend reversed) were blocky. The problem here is we have short periods of record and long term poorly understood cycles, e.g. PDO, that also influence blocking.

Blocking is dynamically related to the rate of weakening of the meridional temperature gradient and its frequency reaches a maximum in spring for this reason as the polar atmosphere sheds excess angular momentum into cutoffs.
Quoting 17. TroutMadness:


Taking material from one "closed" system (the ground) and injecting it into another "closed" system (the atmosphere) in the form of gasses has to have an effect, mass balance and all
The atmosphere is a closed system? Certainly not with respect to energy!

Could you explain a bit more?
I've seen the 'wavy/weakened/extreme jet stream' idea discussed as primarily a hypothesis, yet I've also seen it mentioned as a theory. I've been referring to it as a hypothesis. Dr. Masters refers to it here as a theory. Mass media seems to use 'theory' more when discussing this, whereas more scientific sites seem to use 'hypothesis'.

Thoughts? In particular, I'd be interested in what those with a science background think.
I'm questioning the Cranbrook temperature being an all-time record.

A couple of days ago I was anticipating the possibility of a new record there, so I went through the June, July, and August daily records for a few stations.

There was one station whose latitude (49 36 44 N) and longitude (115 46 55 W) correspond to those of the Cranbrook airport, which is the main station, and which covers the years since 1968 (the records were listed up to 2012, but as of yesterday records from 2013 to 2015 had been added as a different station). The record hottest temperature there was 36.7 C (on July 23 2003).

There was another station at almost the same latitude (49 32 N) and longitude (115 46 W) where records go from 1938-1967. I took that as being the main station before the current main station. The record hottest temperature there was 38.9 C (on July 16 1941 and on July 17 1941).

So the current record of 36.8 C appears to be only at the current location of the main station.
For those who haven't seen this, here's a short video with Dr. Masters, Dr. Francis and others explaining the wavy/extreme/weakened jet stream idea:

....of all the illogical decisions we could possibly make, we took another step back today, maybe a few a steps...:(



Coal burns EPA: Supreme Court tosses feds' tough emissions regs




In a major win for the energy industry, the Supreme Court ruled Monday against the Environmental Protection Agency's effort to limit certain power plant emissions -- saying the agency "unreasonably" failed to consider the cost of the regulations.

The rules curbing emissions of mercury and other hazardous air pollutants began to take effect in April. But the court said by a 5-4 vote Monday that the EPA failed to take their cost into account when the agency first decided to regulate the toxic emissions from coal- and oil-fired plants.
Quoting 20. LAbonbon:

I've seen the 'wavy/weakened/extreme jet stream' idea discussed as primarily a hypothesis, yet I've also seen it mentioned as a theory. I've been referring to it as a hypothesis. Dr. Masters refers to it here as a theory. Mass media seems to use 'theory' more when discussing this, whereas more scientific sites seem to use 'hypothesis'.

Thoughts? In particular, I'd be interested in what those with a science background think.
A hypothesis is an attempt to explain a particular phenomenon, in this case the increasingly kinked-up jet stream and increasingly extreme and frequent weather. A theory, on the other hand, is a hypothesis (or multiple hypotheses) that have been confirmed via testing. That doesn't mean, however, that every scientist will be on board with that theory. In this case, Dr. Francis' theory of extreme weather via Arctic amplification hasn't yet swayed everyone, though it should be noted that a growing number of credible scientists are coming around to acceptance as more and more peer-reviewed research has been published. Now, it may come to pass that Francis, et al, are entirely right. Or it could turn out that their theory needs a lot of tweaking to gain wide acceptance. Or the theory could be rejected entirely once further work is done. That's how science is supposed to work...

(FWIW, a tiny number of scientists still refer to Darwinian evolution as an untested hypothesis. It happens.)

Nea, I understand your thoughts, and way back when, that's what I learned was the difference between a hypothesis and a theory. But as I advanced in my studies and career, the hypothesis/theory differentiation also became a bit more complex. Here's a page from Understanding Science/Berkeley that discusses the differences. Yes, it's for children; this is also for science educators. But it explains the differences between the two very well. It also states as a misconception that a theory is simply an upgrade from a hypothesis.

Science at multiple levels

Specifically, from this page: "Hypotheses cannot become theories and theories cannot become laws. Hypotheses, theories, and laws are all scientific explanations but they differ in breadth, not in level of support. Theories apply to a broader range of phenomena than do hypotheses."

I'm not trying to diminish her idea, nor imply that others are based on the choice in terminology. I'm interested in why either one of these would be appropriate, based on the linked page that discusses the differences (and similarities) between the two.

Hence my question, and my wondering what the scientists on here thought. Some may think it's simply semantics, but I don't think so.
gee hundreds of homes had to be evacuated due to a huge blazing firestorm came into a town in Washington state..pretty bad news over there with all the fires around out west.




Picked up 0.24" from a nice downpour. The line of storms was moving too fast to dump any significant amount of rain, but I'll take what I can get. It looks like clear skies behind the line, so this might be it for today.
Quoting 25. LAbonbon:

Nea, I understand your thoughts, and way back when, that's what I learned was the difference between a hypothesis and a theory. But as I advanced in my studies and career, the hypothesis/theory differentiation also became a bit more complex. Here's a page from Understanding Science/Berkeley that discusses the differences. Yes, it's for children; this is also for science educators. But it explains the differences between the two very well. It also states as a misconception that a theory is simply an upgrade from a hypothesis.

Science at multiple levels

Specifically, from this page: "Hypotheses cannot become theories and theories cannot become laws. Hypotheses, theories, and laws are all scientific explanations but they differ in breadth, not in level of support. Theories apply to a broader range of phenomena than do hypotheses."

I'm not trying to diminish her idea, nor imply that others are based on the choice in terminology. I'm interested in why either one of these would be appropriate, based on the linked page that discusses the differences (and similarities) between the two.

Hence my question, and my wondering what the scientists on here thought. Some may think it's simply semantics, but I don't think so.


The way we would differentiate in the social sciences, is that a hypothesis is something to test, in this case it would be something like "The jet stream is normal or non extreme" (simplifying here as I'm sure the null hypotheses to test are numerous and more in depth), the theory would be the explanation supported by the evidence obtained, in this case the it would be something like "the extreme patterns of the jet stream can explained by the record warming of the Arctic". In the future other hypotheses can be tested and the theory amended, if necessary.
Quoting 26. LargoFl:

gee hundreds of homes had to be evacuated due to a huge blazing firestorm came into a town in Washington state..pretty bad news over there with all the fires around out west.


Monitor, just on the outskirts of Wenatchee. It's about 15 miles from me. Two dozen structures lost so far, about a dozen homes. State resources called in. Was a wetting thunderstorm this morning but was short lived. About 3000 acres so far, awaiting update from chelan county em.
the extra fees for the consumer could cause our fragile at best earth's economy to go to pot. happy no longer handicapped...new keyboard for $1.50 at a g.w.
Quoting 23. ILwthrfan:

....of all the illogical decisions we could possibly make, we took another step back today, maybe a few a steps...:(



Coal burns EPA: Supreme Court tosses feds' tough emissions regs




In a major win for the energy industry, the Supreme Court ruled Monday against the Environmental Protection Agency's effort to limit certain power plant emissions -- saying the agency "unreasonably" failed to consider the cost of the regulations.

The rules curbing emissions of mercury and other hazardous air pollutants began to take effect in April. But the court said by a 5-4 vote Monday that the EPA failed to take their cost into account when the agency first decided to regulate the toxic emissions from coal- and oil-fired plants.

I haven't seen nor read the SCOTUS ruling on the EPA regs, but I shall.

Esp the Dissent.

But I will say dis.

We are out monied, out interested, and out of the "working solution" group.

They are going to drill, scrape, dig, frack and burn every BTU, BBL and other to the last poof'.




Barring some serious instant intervention from above, reducing our use of FF's is the only Solution.

Time is not on the Humans side, as the adding of CO2 via burning fossil fuels to power our Global society....is not going to stop anytime soon.

But hey, when the tent folds on the Humans run, think of all the wealth we gained from such a neat, greedy run, eh?

Irony wins.



Quoting 16. ricderr:

what happened to that southern jet stream?


He's on "Vacation"..



Hey guys what's up

Hey just saw the Nino numbers I see just about nothing has changed well except Nino 3 I think which has risen slightly

Anyway I'm looking through all the updated charts for the ENSO and MJO and the evidence to why I'm denying some of the hype is starting to show I will post my thoughts and findings maybe in late July/early Aug as to let my finding become more hardened
Today happens to be the 3 year anniversary of Nashville's all time record high temperature of 109F set in 2012.

Baltimore locks up wettest June on record, DC climbing into top 5

Atlantic City and Wilmington, Delaware's largest city, are also both in second place.

Quoting 37. Grothar:




TWC be smoking something bad. NWS has me in for a 50/50, and makes no special mention of severe weather and SPC has a marginal risk.

I'm not expecting severe weather tomorrow.
Quoting 38. wxgeek723:

Baltimore locks up wettest June on record, DC climbing into top 5


What time period does the graphic refer to, wxgeek? % change from when to when?
Quoting 41. AdamReith:

What time period does the graphic refer to, wxgeek? % change from when to when?


1958-2012
it will be like a salem with hunt if this el nino peters out.
Quoting 43. islander101010:

it will be like a salem with hunt if this el nino peters out.

Why? More importantly, how?
This Nino is shaping up to be quite an event, the region 3.4 has warmed considerably since yesterday and is now near 1.5 C, region 3 is now way over 1.5 C and 1 + 2 is still over 2 C. Region 4 is a little bit cooler, but still in the moderate range. SST s in region 3.4 will be interesting to watch, will be interesting to see whether those SST s will continue to rise as quickly as they did in association with that Scott s famous wind burst.
Quoting 23. ILwthrfan:

....of all the illogical decisions we could possibly make, we took another step back today, maybe a few a steps...:(



Coal burns EPA: Supreme Court tosses feds' tough emissions regs




In a major win for the energy industry, the Supreme Court ruled Monday against the Environmental Protection Agency's effort to limit certain power plant emissions -- saying the agency "unreasonably" failed to consider the cost of the regulations.

The rules curbing emissions of mercury and other hazardous air pollutants began to take effect in April. But the court said by a 5-4 vote Monday that the EPA failed to take their cost into account when the agency first decided to regulate the toxic emissions from coal- and oil-fired plants.


The supreme court as been corrupted. citizen against government.. citizen. Citizen against big business.. business. Government against business.. business.. they are PEOPLE (like solient green is people) with more rights than Citizens.. we are doomed as a Republic is we don't overturn these buttbrains.
Quoting 46. indianrivguy:



The supreme court as been corrupted. citizen against government.. citizen. Citizen against big business.. business. Government against business.. business.. they are PEOPLE (like solient green is people) with more rights than Citizens.. we are doomed as a Republic is we don't overturn these buttbrains.

I couldn't have said that better, they are a piece of work...
Quoting 19. AdamReith:

The atmosphere is a closed system? Certainly not with respect to energy!

Could you explain a bit more?

My thoughts - taking carbon and hydrogen out of the ground and putting them in the atmosphere, the atmosphere is finite right? Not energy. Some CO2 is being absorbed by water (still on the surface)
Just my rambling thoughts
At work we did mass balances on the blast furnace in = out but in this case does it? I don't know, just an old retired steelworker LOL.
Quoting 18. georgevandenberghe:


(snip)

I'm skeptical about frequency of blocking patterns in the Jet Stream being greatly increased by AGW. AGW is happening but if blocking is related to weak temperature gradients, we should see more of it in July and August when the climatologically normal gradient is weaker than it is now. BTW the 1960s, (a relatively cold decade where the centrury warming trend reversed) were blocky. The problem here is we have short periods of record and long term poorly understood cycles, e.g. PDO, that also influence blocking.

Blocking is dynamically related to the rate of weakening of the meridional temperature gradient and its frequency reaches a maximum in spring for this reason as the polar atmosphere sheds excess angular momentum into cutoffs.

Hey, George - can you explain for us non-met types what you mean by '...sheds excess angular momentum into cutoffs'? In layperson language, if you don't mind :-)
I'll tell you what....I don't know HOW meteorologists can bollux up a forecast quite as bad as they did over the weekend here, but as sure as grass is green, they did.

We went from 100% of rain, heavy downpours, some storms may be severe, yada yada yada, to.....

Nothing. Zip. Zilch. Not even a duck fart. I would almost prefer honesty in the forecast package: "We have no fargin clue." LOL.
Quoting 30. islander101010:

the extra fees for the consumer could cause our fragile at best earth's economy to go to pot. happy no longer handicapped...new keyboard for $1.50 at a g.w.

Woohoo! New keyboard :) What's g.w.? Good Will? If so, never thought they'd have stuff like that there. Years ago I bought a top-of-the-line vacuum at a yard sale for $5. A little duct tape and it was good as new. I thought I made quite the bargain. But $1.50 - what a steal!
DC..
You are correct.  A merged database which includes the earlier site at Cranbrook prior to 1968 would include the readings from the July 1941 heat wave which produced some of the hottest temps ever seen in BC. That includes the all time hottest BC temps of 44.4C (112F) on July 16-17 1941 in Lytton and Lillooet.    

Quoting 21. DCSwithunderscores:

I'm questioning the Cranbrook temperature being an all-time record.

A couple of days ago I was anticipating the possibility of a new record there, so I went through the June, July, and August daily records for a few stations.

There was one station whose latitude (49 36 44 N) and longitude (115 46 55 W) correspond to those of the Cranbrook airport, which is the main station, and which covers the years since 1968 (the records were listed up to 2012, but as of yesterday records from 2013 to 2015 had been added as a different station). The record hottest temperature there was 36.7 C (on July 23 2003).

There was another station at almost the same latitude (49 32 N) and longitude (115 46 W) where records go from 1938-1967. I took that as being the main station before the current main station. The record hottest temperature there was 38.9 C (on July 16 1941 and on July 17 1941).

So the current record of 36.8 C appears to be only at the current location of the main station.

Quoting 50. nash36:

I'll tell you what....I don't know HOW meteorologists can bollux up a forecast quite as bad as they did over the weekend here, but as sure as grass is green, they did.

We went from 100% of rain, heavy downpours, some storms may be severe, yada yada yada, to.....

Nothing. Zip. Zilch. Not even a duck fart. I would almost prefer honesty in the forecast package: "We have no fargin clue." LOL.


I had a 75% chance of three duck farts today, we received 2 and a half...
The world is still being affected by other peoples old decisions. At some point, there will be a huge shift where energy needs are concerned....And it will happen...

Science has become an integral and most important part of our civilization, and scientific work means contributing to its development. Science in our technical age has social, economic, and political functions, and however remote one's own work is from technical application it is a link in the chain of actions and decisions which determine the fate of the human race. I realized this aspect of science in its full impact only after Hiroshima.
— Max Born 1968.....
Holy cow

12z GFS

WXgeek that article from CWG is old.We are the second wettest June on record with 11.93 inches.
Quoting 39. Astrometeor:



TWC be smoking something bad. NWS has me in for a 50/50, and makes no special mention of severe weather and SPC has a marginal risk.

I'm not expecting severe weather tomorrow.
And, strangely, the SPC has the slight risk area covering almost all of Alabama while TWC cuts it off in northern Alabama. In both cases, it's difficult to see where any severe risk is coming from. The CAPE should be relatively low, shear will be weak to non-existent, and there should be a cap in place, at least for part of the atmosphere. PW values aren't any higher than a normal summer day, and whatever front manages to develop is going to wash out before it even gets to Alabama. Just like any summer afternoon, it's possible to get an isolated strong storm, but I really don't see the case of a marginal risk. None of the local offices seem to be giving a threat of severe storms much credence.
Quoting 55. hydrus:

The world is still being affected by other peoples old decisions. At some point, there will be a huge shift where energy needs are concerned....And it will happen...

Science has become an integral and most important part of our civilization, and scientific work means contributing to its development. Science in our technical age has social, economic, and political functions, and however remote one's own work is from technical application it is a link in the chain of actions and decisions which determine the fate of the human race. I realized this aspect of science in its full impact only after Hiroshima.
— Max Born 1968.....



When and How?

Who is driving the "change" now?

Energy Giants are not swayed to change the model they are werking under.


You underestimate the Powers that control these entities.

Quoting 56. CybrTeddy:

Holy cow

12z GFS


Something strange happening with the GFS, since the 874 mb low in mainland China looks a little hard to believe. We'll have to see if it wants to hold that pressure over the next couple of runs. The GFS has been doing a pretty good job with long range intensity in the Pacific.
Quoting 52. LAbonbon:


Woohoo! New keyboard :) What's g.w.? Good Will? If so, never thought they'd have stuff like that there. Years ago I bought a top-of-the-line vacuum at a yard sale for $5. A little duct tape and it was good as new. I thought I made quite the bargain. But $1.50 - what a steal!
If it follows the path of other "new" keyboards, the ever fragile spacebar will break once again. Islander has an amazingly difficult time with spacebars.
I just wanted to share this story and give a big thumbs up to the NWS Tampa office in Ruskin, FL. My wife teaches kids who are blind or visually impaired and one of her older students who is visually impaired has a significant interest in meteorology as a career. Given her disability, she had no idea how to get her foot in the door and learn more about the field. My wife, of course, knows I’m a weather geek so asked my thoughts. I suggested we call the NWS Tampa office and ask if they could give the student a tour of the facility and maybe have a 1 on 1 discussion with her. After a few attempts to talk to the right people, we spoke with the director of the office who agreed to give the student a tour, have a 1 on 1 discussion with her, and have her assist with one of the weather balloon launches. She will be there for most of a day.

Huge thanks to this NWS office and great job in working with the local community on a good cause.
Quoting 60. sar2401:

Something strange happening with the GFS, since the 874 mb low in mainland China looks a little hard to believe. We'll have to see if it wants to hold that pressure over the next couple of runs. The GFS has been doing a pretty good job with long range intensity in the Pacific.


The GFS is probably too strong, 00z ECMWF doesn't take 94W below 950mbar.

Quoting 50. nash36:

I'll tell you what....I don't know HOW meteorologists can bollux up a forecast quite as bad as they did over the weekend here, but as sure as grass is green, they did.

We went from 100% of rain, heavy downpours, some storms may be severe, yada yada yada, to.....

Nothing. Zip. Zilch. Not even a duck fart. I would almost prefer honesty in the forecast package: "We have no fargin clue." LOL.
I had noted in a previous post that, given the advertising for the weekend "cold wave", the FTC would be on their case if they were instead advertising vacuum cleaners. :-) Even with the usual weakening of cold fronts as they get this far south, this one was even weaker than average. The only evidence of the front was a northerly wind shift and dewpoint depression. I only managed to squeeze 0.06" out of my duck fart. The low last night was 67, which was a nice change from the 75 degree lows I've been having, but the average low is 70, so an invasion of cold air this wasn't. It's up to 94 now and the wind has shifted to the SW, so the fleeting advantages of the front are quickly diminishing.
65. N3EG
Quoting 63. CybrTeddy:



The GFS is probably too strong, 00z ECMWF doesn't take 94W below 950mbar.



In any case, isobars with moire is a bad thing.
Quoting 54. Naga5000:



I had a 75% chance of three duck farts today, we received 2 and a half...


I don't usually make a habit of lambasting our local NWS, but this was silly.
Quoting 66. nash36:



I don't usually make a habit of lambasting our local NWS, but this was silly.


I thoroughly enjoyed it. :)
solar impulse well on the way to hawaii. what an adventure.
It has been three years since the Derecho and its just one of those things that you don't forget no matter how old you are.It was 10:00 at night with temps till in the upper 90's with dew points in the upper 70's.I clocked a wind gust at my house of 83mph with R.N.A recording a 75mph gust.I should mention that the storm was packed with lightening and that combined with power flashes put on a show like no other.Today is sunny and clear and nothing like that is on the horizon.
Quoting 67. Naga5000:



I thoroughly enjoyed it. :)


It was, however, very nice to have a high temp yesterday that allowed us mere mortals to breathe. :-)
Quoting 46. indianrivguy:



The supreme court as been corrupted. citizen against government.. citizen. Citizen against big business.. business. Government against business.. business.. they are PEOPLE (like solient green is people) with more rights than Citizens.. we are doomed as a Republic is we don't overturn these buttbrains.
Strange rulings lately.
Quoting 69. washingtonian115:

It has been three years since the Derecho and its just one of those things that you don't forget no matter how old you are.It was 10:00 at night with temps till in the upper 90's with dew points in the upper 70's.I clocked a wind gust at my house of 83mph with R.N.A recording a 75mph gust.I should mention that the storm was packed with lightening and that combined with power flashes put on a show like no other.Today is sunny and clear and nothing like that is on the horizon.


That'll make the hair on your neck stand up. As I've mentioned before on the blogs, I will never EVER forget Hurricane Frances, chugging along at a brisk TWO miles per hour. Over 24hrs of hurricane conditions. I'll never forget the sounds for as long as I live.
Hottest temperature I could find in BC over the weekend was 42.0C (108F) at the Hedley BC volunteer climate station in the southern interior on June 27. (This is an official climate station registered with Environment Canada) This would tie BC's all time hottest June temperature of 42.0C recorded at Boston Bar BC on June 29 1987.
Meanwhile it's a cool 86 degrees in Fort Walton Beach, FL! Much better than the 90's we had been seeing!
Quoting 72. nash36:



That'll make the hair on your neck stand up. As I've mentioned before on the blogs, I will never EVER forget Hurricane Frances, chugging along at a brisk TWO miles per hour. Over 24hrs of hurricane conditions. I'll never forget the sounds for as long as I live.
The sound of wind hitting the house,tree branches and power lines snapping,hearing power explosions is just something I prefer not to live through again.I hadn't seen anything that bad since Isabel ran through 9 years before.The grid was fixed again before Sandy came running through.I should mention stress was put on the power grid by the earthquake,Irene and another server thunderstorm the week before the derecho.
Quoting 62. tampabaymatt:

I just wanted to share this story and give a big thumbs up to the NWS Tampa office in Ruskin, FL. My wife teaches kids who are blind or visually impaired and one of her older students who is visually impaired has a significant interest in meteorology as a career. Given her disability, she had no idea how to get her foot in the door and learn more about the field. My wife, of course, knows I’m a weather geek so asked my thoughts. I suggested we call the NWS Tampa office and ask if they could give the student a tour of the facility and maybe have a 1 on 1 discussion with her. After a few attempts to talk to the right people, we spoke with the director of the office who agreed to give the student a tour, have a 1 on 1 discussion with her, and have her assist with one of the weather balloon launches. She will be there for most of a day.

Huge thanks to this NWS office and great job in working with the local community on a good cause.

That's a nice story. We have one met at BMX who enjoys sharing his love for weather with school tours. If he's free, you can always count on a good tour for the kids.
Parts of Costa Rica are in the 16th straight day of forced shut offs to conserve water. I had no idea the drought was so bad there. I think it’s just the Pacific side though.
Quoting 69. washingtonian115:

It has been three years since the Derecho and its just one of those things that you don't forget no matter how old you are.It was 10:00 at night with temps till in the upper 90's with dew points in the upper 70's.I clocked a wind gust at my house of 83mph with R.N.A recording a 75mph gust.I should mention that the storm was packed with lightening and that combined with power flashes put on a show like no other.Today is sunny and clear and nothing like that is on the horizon.


I missed it. On vacation elsewhere. I was worried about an MCC on the 29'th or 30'th while I was gone but did not expect a derecho.

I often wonder when I would have realized that the intense derecho over the midwest was going to make it over the mountains and slam DC metro.

Quoting 74. 69Viking:

Meanwhile it's a cool 86 degrees in Fort Walton Beach, FL! Much better than the 90's we had been seeing!
Indeed it is. It has now crept up to 95, and the dewpoint is creeping back toward 70, but Walking Radar Dog at the more civilized hour of 8:00 pm with a temperature of 70 is much better than having to wait until midnight, when the temperature finally went below 80. It looks like there will be enough disturbances rounding the trough over the next three days to give us at least a reasonable chance of rain each day and keep the temperatures in check.
NBC tells Donald Trump and the Apprentice,

"You're Fired"


Quoting 63. CybrTeddy:



The GFS is probably too strong, 00z ECMWF doesn't take 94W below 950mbar.


This far out, both models are probably wrong to some extent. It's a little worrisome though, since the models, even if they haven't been right about the ultimate intensity, have been good at sniffing out an intense storm in the future.
Quoting 79. sar2401:

Indeed it is. It has now crept up to 95, and the dewpoint is creeping back toward 70, but Walking Radar Dog at the more civilized hour of 8:00 pm with a temperature of 70 is much better than having to wait until midnight, when the temperature finally went below 80. It looks like there will be enough disturbances rounding the trough over the next three days to give us at least a reasonable chance of rain each day and keep the temperatures in check.


Rain is definitely scattered today but I'll take some clouds, a chance of rain and lower temps over the constant 90's with no chances of rain and lows about 80.

Here is a good article-summary on today's SC ruling on the EPA regs:

http://news.sciencemag.org/environment/2015/06/u- s-high-court-topples-controversial-mercury-polluti on-regulations

Today's decision means that EPA will now have to either produce a new cost-benefit analysis, or write an entirely new mercury plan at the same time that the agency already has a full agenda because of its efforts to take action on climate change. Many of the same states, utilities, and coal mining interests that fought the mercury pollution rules are also lined up to battle EPA's pending regulations to limit carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants, due out in the coming weeks.

(The Supreme Court's decision, in fact, appears to topple one of their arguments%u2014at least for the time being. West Virginia and several other states argued that EPA couldn't regulate carbon dioxide emissions because the agency already regulates mercury emissions.)

In some sense, EPA's effort on greenhouse gases, called the Clean Power Plan, could render the mercury issue moot. Some utilities argue they will be forced to shut coal plants down under the Clean Power Plan, eliminating both carbon dioxide and mercury emissions. In theory, power plants also may be able to address their mercury problem with installation of advanced carbon emissions controls; in its regulatory impact analysis EPA lists reduction of mercury as a potential side benefit of proposed carbon dioxide rules. But the greenhouse gas battle is just beginning and, because it involves the same interests, could rage as long as the fight over mercury, which began in the mid-1990s.

Our Priest yesterday talked about the Encyclical and asked the congregation to follow the Pope's lead. He encouraged everyone to read it, that we will be challenged with our thoughts and impacts on "Mother Earth." Good stuff.
Cranbrook,Canada all time record is much higher: 38.9C during the famous and never matched heat wave of 1941 when British Columbia recorded temperature as high as 44.4C (112F).
36.7C doesn't even stand amongst the first 20 hottest temperatures of the town.
The station was moved 4 times, plus there have been 5 more stations, in total 9.
The serie ,which matches the main station which had sustituted the previous one and served as main official station for Cranbrook , shows the following high temperatures:

37.2C 18-7-1918
37.8C 1,2 and 4-7-1924
38.3C 12-7-1940
38.9C 16,17-7-1941 x
37.8C 27-7-1939
37.8C 12-7-1953
37.2C 17,18-8-1967

The profound changes to the polar jet stream is by far the most significant consequence of AGW, thus far. It means that the predicted increase in droughts and floods will be much more extreme than anyone had imagined.

We live in interesting times, and it's going to get a whole lot more interesting. I'm investing in canned corned beef.
Quoting 78. georgevandenberghe:



I missed it. On vacation elsewhere. I was worried about an MCC on the 29'th or 30'th while I was gone but did not expect a derecho.

I often wonder when I would have realized that the intense derecho over the midwest was going to make it over the mountains and slam DC metro.


For me, it was after the derecho went through my BIL's farm near Columbus OH. It took down about a mile's worth of power poles, half destroyed his soybean crop, unroofed one of his silos, and tossed a 29,000 pound combine about 100 feet across his equipment yard. That was about 5:30 pm and, when it showed no signs of weakening as sunset approached, I thought it was going to end up in the Atlantic. He had a 20kW natural gas generator installed in 2009 after Ike left him without power for three days. Good thing he had it, since the derecho caused enough grid damage he didn't get power back for five days. He's also had multiple day power outages due to winter storms. The area looks very placid on a normal day, but that can be pretty deceptive when the storms come.
I would watch the southeast coast. Something looks like it's getting going off that old frontal boundary. I remember that Michael Lowry was talking about this last week.
Quoting 49. LAbonbon:


Hey, George - can you explain for us non-met types what you mean by '...sheds excess angular momentum into cutoffs'? In layperson language, if you don't mind :-)


The upper air winds around the north (and south) pole are approximately in geostrophic balance. This means the pressure gradient force (high pressure to the south low to the north) is balanced by the coriolis force which pulls a moving body 90 degrees to the right of its direction of motion. The magnitude of this force is directly proportional to wind speed.

The pressure gradient aloft is determined primarily by temperature gradient. Stronger temperature gradient means higher pressure to the south, lower to the north and a stronger westerly (counterclockwise around the pole) wind in response.

When the pole warms in spring (faster than the midlatitudes and tropics), the temperature gradient weakens, the pressure gradient weakens and the coriolis force becomes stronger than the pressure gradient force and the circumpolar vortex (the belt of upper level westerlies around the pole) breaks down into eddies. It's beyond my knowledge to rigorously explain why this results in a concentration of energy into 3000km scale cutoffs but that is the observed behaviour and it is understood in the science, just not by me.

I also can't rigorously separate this behavior from classical quasi-geostrophic theory which explains how the potential energy in the circumpolar vortex feeds into the 3000 (or so) km eddies. This is BY FAR the dominant term in midlatitude cyclone energetics.

There is a second issue in spring in both hemispheres. The atmosphere warms from below in spring and static stability decreases. A larger spectrum of eddies in the basic state is therefore unstable and can amplify. In a stable atmosphere, the short waves are crushed because the ageostrophic circulations they excite wind up lifting cold air, and sinking warm air which converts their energy into basic state potential energy, damping them out. As stability decreases, the minimum wavelength for amplification also decreases so stuff that just dies in winter, can amplify into a big cutoff in spring.


Your question deserves a concise answer. I apologise for being unable to state it clearly.


Also anyone who sees error in my explanation, feel free to correct or improve it. In this case courtesy that leads to silence is not helpful.
Quoting 23. ILwthrfan:

....of all the illogical decisions we could possibly make, we took another step back today, maybe a few a steps...:(



Coal burns EPA: Supreme Court tosses feds' tough emissions regs




In a major win for the energy industry, the Supreme Court ruled Monday against the Environmental Protection Agency's effort to limit certain power plant emissions -- saying the agency "unreasonably" failed to consider the cost of the regulations.

The rules curbing emissions of mercury and other hazardous air pollutants began to take effect in April. But the court said by a 5-4 vote Monday that the EPA failed to take their cost into account when the agency first decided to regulate the toxic emissions from coal- and oil-fired plants.


But I thought we only had clean coal now?

(sarcasm)
Quoting 87. sar2401:

For me, it was after the derecho went through my BIL's farm near Columbus OH. It took down about a mile's worth of power poles, half destroyed his soybean crop, unroofed one of his silos, and tossed a 29,000 pound combine about 100 feet across his equipment yard. That was about 5:30 pm and, when it showed no signs of weakening as sunset approached, I thought it was going to end up in the Atlantic. He had a 20kW natural gas generator installed in 2009 after Ike left him without power for three days. Good thing he had it, since the derecho caused enough grid damage he didn't get power back for five days. He's also had multiple day power outages due to winter storms. The area looks very placid on a normal day, but that can be pretty deceptive when the storms come.


It also took out the fences at my SIL farm in Albany Ohio. They lost power but overall got off lucky. I was in the Bahamas and worried about possible MCC. My sister (from RIC) joined me the next day and told me
about the strong line that had gone through RIC. I wasn't expecting anything that far south and thought something
really bad must have happened in DC and broke news silence (I try to get away from it all down there!) and read about the devastation. The house watcher who came in to check on the cats told me the house was okay.

I had a tree come down on my roof.. fortunately it held. A large branch missed my new car parked in the side yard. My fridge was destroyed by a power surge.. everything else survived. I had another freezer and used
that to freeze saltwater bottles to cool the fridge till I could order a new one.
You folks were worried about Big Oil? Shoot. Never underestimate the power of Big Coal. At least Big Oil powers our automobiles, trains and aircraft. We don't need Big Coal to generate electricity.
Quoting 82. 69Viking:



Rain is definitely scattered today but I'll take some clouds, a chance of rain and lower temps over the constant 90's with no chances of rain and lows about 80.




Nice cloudy afternoon here in the Orlando area. Picked up about 0.10" rain today, so nothing at all impressive. Still completely dry under heavy canopy. The rainy season has been...somewhat unimpressive at my location, while I know other locations nearby have been slammed a number of times. I think my expectations are just too high, while for the hurricane season(based on the last 9 years), they couldn't get any lower:)
Quoting 60. sar2401:

Something strange happening with the GFS, since the 874 mb low in mainland China looks a little hard to believe. We'll have to see if it wants to hold that pressure over the next couple of runs. The GFS has been doing a pretty good job with long range intensity in the Pacific.
Glitch
12z Euro has the WPAC typhoon down to 891mb at 10 days, very close to the GFS location wise.
Quoting 59. Patrap:



When and How?

Who is driving the "change" now?

Energy Giants are not swayed to change the model they are werking under.


You underestimate the Powers that control these entities.


Greetings Pat...I never underestimate anything. This is a fact... I believe that the oil and coal industries will be displaced. What is happening now, is people know the value of oil and coal will gradually and perceptively disappear. Many countries are aimed to free themselves of any type of dependency, especially where energy and power are concerned. Merkel and Putin are a good example. Overreliance on fossil fuels is a significant problem for European Union , with Germany and Italy being the largest on the gas and oil imports. It is a work in progress, but the dependency for Russian oil will diminish. Germany has already made great strides to be free of outside energy sources. It will happen here , but much differently than what will transpire overseas.
Quoting 97. tampabaymatt:



Bullseye over Orlando. Does happy dance.
Quoting 97. tampabaymatt:




A bulls-eye of over 6" near Nashville in 7 days? Ehh...we'd have to get some heavy rain on Wednesday-Friday for that to happen. Skeptical of WPC there.
Quoting 63. CybrTeddy:



The GFS is probably too strong, 00z ECMWF doesn't take 94W below 950mbar.



99 here in Miramar near Dade county line. Nice..They said we could set some records here today. Now a quick little T-storm will bring that down. Ugg
102. flsky
Your state has asked FEMA for help. Has the Red Cross been activated yet?

Quoting 29. jholmestyle:



Monitor, just on the outskirts of Wenatchee. It's about 15 miles from me. Two dozen structures lost so far, about a dozen homes. State resources called in. Was a wetting thunderstorm this morning but was short lived. About 3000 acres so far, awaiting update from chelan county em.
103. flsky
Only mid-80s here in Ponce Inlet today. Nice change of pace from the mid-90s (and no rain) that we've been dealing with.

Quoting 101. weaverwxman:

99 here in Miramar near Dade county line. Nice..They said we could set some records here today. Now a quick little T-storm will bring that down. Ugg
Saw the video at lunch of the semis on 61 NW of StL, seems they were just blown off road, not overturned as reported earlier. We received another half inch in S C IL, but no real severe for us, but did have a warned area just to the N.

Sun popped out after cloudy start, 77-80 at local stations, 29.85", light westerlies w/ teen gusts, mid 60s dew pts. Unfortunately, more rain chances throughout week in forecast. Just closed Upper MS locks at Clarksville & Winfield, think they were peaking today, StL tomorrow. I guess that will depend on how much additional falls. Levees starting to get saturated as have had high water on them for about a month. Holding well so far in most areas, but could really use a drop to flood stage at least.
105. 882MB
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC011-086-292200-
/O.NEW.KMFL.SV.W.0027.150629T2100Z-150629T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 500 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED OVER HIALEAH...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE
HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MIAMI...HIALEAH...PEMBROKE PINES...MIRAMAR AND MIAMI BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2587 8012 2577 8013 2578 8013 2579 8015
2581 8014 2582 8018 2578 8018 2576 8014
2577 8019 2575 8020 2573 8031 2591 8040
2602 8030 2595 8014 2593 8013 2594 8012
2590 8013 2591 8014
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 252DEG 12KT 2585 8027


$$


Ryan Maue
@RyanMaue
891 mb ... now ECMWF 12z global forecast generates massive Super Typhoon & friends out of monsoon trough
Ryan Maue
Westerlies from Indian Ocean funneling into newest iteration of monster Typhoon forming by weekend. GFS 850-mb winds
Quoting 100. TropicalAnalystwx13:



Scary
The whole ITCZ is spinning.

WWB so clear here.
A wild one coming through West Palm/Lake Worth...

The MJO is propagating into the West Pac so a storm or two is likely in that region in the near future; remains to be seen exactly where and how strong:



It has been abnormally warm for the last week throughout the Pacific Northwest, and will be for the next week as well, with daytime temps being 20-30 degrees above normal and nights 10-20 degrees warmer. That would make it two weeks in a row with 90F+ temps for the Vancouver/Portland metro area. Very very abnormal and record books are being recorded with new entries.
Harmful pollutants emitted annually from a typical, uncontrolled coal plant include approximately:

- 114 pounds of lead, 4 pounds of cadmium, other toxic heavy metals, and trace amounts of uranium. Baghouses can reduce heavy metal emissions by up to 90 percent.
- 720 tons of carbon monoxide, which causes headaches and places additional stress on people with heart disease.
- 220 tons of hydrocarbons, volatile organic compounds (VOC), which form ozone.
- 225 pounds of arsenic, which will cause cancer in one out of 100 people who drink water containing 50 parts per billion.

Source
Very impressive!Link
Wonderful delightful slept with the windows wide open 56 degree weather in my corner of the world in Silver Spring, MD. No a/c, no heat.....NADA.

Now it's 86 degrees and expecting showers tonight.

It could be better, it could be worse but it is what it is.
Quoting 86. yonzabam:

The profound changes to the polar jet stream is by far the most significant consequence of AGW, thus far. It means that the predicted increase in droughts and floods will be much more extreme than anyone had imagined.

We live in interesting times, and it's going to get a whole lot more interesting. I'm investing in canned corned beef.


I would argue that species extinction and ocean acidification and ecosystem destruction (coral reefs for example) are worse consequences.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
533 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

FLZ067-068-072-168-172-292200-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-
533 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...UP TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL...45 TO 55 MPH WINDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL CLOUDS FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

* AT 533 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROTATION...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FUNNEL CLOUD
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PALM BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH...AND
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* IN ADDITION...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45
TO 55 MPH...UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A
COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE
WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO
PROTECTION. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...
AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE
BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT LAUDERDALE...CORAL SPRINGS...WEST PALM BEACH...POMPANO
BEACH...BOCA RATON...DEERFIELD BEACH...BOYNTON BEACH...DELRAY
BEACH...TAMARAC...WELLINGTON...MARGATE...LAKE WORTH...RIVIERA
BEACH...LIGHTHOUSE POINT...PALM BEACH...LAUDERDALE-BY-THE-SEA...
HIGHLAND BEACH...OCEAN RIDGE...COCONUT CREEK AND OAKLAND PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 2662 8004 2670 8005 2669 8005 2658 8004
2655 8004 2619 8010 2623 8029 2677 8015
2678 8003 2676 8005 2671 8005 2676 8004
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 274DEG 27KT 2669 8001 2629 8012

$$

SI
Update from P-D, tornado in St Charles county was EF-2 and did damage a home rather severely. Not reported earlier as homeowners not there at time. No rating yet on one on Pike-Lincoln line. Also, have now closed Great River Road out of Alton to all but local biz traffic.
Quoting 99. Astrometeor:



A bulls-eye of over 6" near Nashville in 7 days? Ehh...we'd have to get some heavy rain on Wednesday-Friday for that to happen. Skeptical of WPC there.


You have good reason to be skeptical, it's probably a good sign of a wet pattern, but beyond that? Ehh, typical WPC, they had the whole northeast getting 3-5 inches recently, literally almost the entire northeast region. Yes parts of the northeast had very heavy rain, but the actual results weren't anything like that. The nature of convection in moist airmasses doesn't lead to giant bullseyes of heavy totals like that.

As I often stress, the WPC precip accumulation doesn't mean much to me for good reason.
Quoting 100. TropicalAnalystwx13:





Sorry, I don't have access to the full resolution ECMWF model D:
Quoting 93. HurrMichaelOrl:



Nice cloudy afternoon here in the Orlando area. Picked up about 0.10" rain today, so nothing at all impressive. Still completely dry under heavy canopy. The rainy season has been...somewhat unimpressive at my location, while I know other locations nearby have been slammed a number of times. I think my expectations are just too high, while for the hurricane season(based on the last 9 years), they couldn't get any lower:)


It's odd how much rain can vary locally around here, last year, June through August was above average to at times well above average rainfall for most of Central and South Florida, yet aggravatingly we would miss out on mostly everything, and I mean mostly everything that most of the viewing area would see. Somehow we managed to have a top 5 driest June and July on record here despite that most of Central and South Florida had 8-15 inches in June, July, and August. I honestly got downright angry at times lol, it baffled me how we could approach all time dry records when a vast majority of the area was seeing a rainy season wetter than normal.

So far I've been in one of the wettest areas of the Tampa Bay area this June, with a total of 14.53, it's very weird how local weather behavior can be around here.
Thank you, George. I'm following this blog because it's a fun way to learn more about weather and climate. Your comment is interesting.

Quoting 89. georgevandenberghe:



The upper air winds around the north (and south) pole are approximately in geostrophic balance. This means the pressure gradient force (high pressure to the south low to the north) is balanced by the coriolis force which pulls a moving body 90 degrees to the right of its direction of motion. The magnitude of this force is directly proportional to wind speed.

The pressure gradient aloft is determined primarily by temperature gradient. Stronger temperature gradient means higher pressure to the south, lower to the north and a stronger westerly (counterclockwise around the pole) wind in response.

When the pole warms in spring (faster than the midlatitudes and tropics), the temperature gradient weakens, the pressure gradient weakens and the coriolis force becomes stronger than the pressure gradient force and the circumpolar vortex (the belt of upper level westerlies around the pole) breaks down into eddies. It's beyond my knowledge to rigorously explain why this results in a concentration of energy into 3000km scale cutoffs but that is the observed behaviour and it is understood in the science, just not by me.

I also can't rigorously separate this behavior from classical quasi-geostrophic theory which explains how the potential energy in the circumpolar vortex feeds into the 3000 (or so) km eddies. This is BY FAR the dominant term in midlatitude cyclone energetics.

There is a second issue in spring in both hemispheres. The atmosphere warms from below in spring and static stability decreases. A larger spectrum of eddies in the basic state is therefore unstable and can amplify. In a stable atmosphere, the short waves are crushed because the ageostrophic circulations they excite wind up lifting cold air, and sinking warm air which converts their energy into basic state potential energy, damping them out. As stability decreases, the minimum wavelength for amplification also decreases so stuff that just dies in winter, can amplify into a big cutoff in spring.


Your question deserves a concise answer. I apologise for being unable to state it clearly.


Also anyone who sees error in my explanation, feel free to correct or improve it. In this case courtesy that leads to silence is not helpful.

Quoting 121. Jedkins01:



It's odd how much rain can vary locally around here, last year, June through August was above average to at times well above average rainfall for most of Central and South Florida, yet aggravatingly we would miss out on mostly everything, and I mean mostly everything that most of the viewing area would see. Somehow we managed to have a top 5 driest June and July on record here despite that most of Central and South Florida had 8-15 inches in June, July, and August. I honestly got downright angry at times lol, it baffled me how we could approach all time dry records when a vast majority of the area was seeing a rainy season wetter than normal.

So far I've been in one of the wettest areas of the Tampa Bay area this June, with a total of 14.53, it's very weird how local weather behavior can be around here.


Its even more local than that. East Orlando has been pounded most of the rainy season, while the Winter Park area, not so much.
Quoting 118. dabirds:

Update from P-D, tornado in St Charles county was EF-2 and did damage a home rather severely. Not reported earlier as homeowners not there at time. No rating yet on one on Pike-Lincoln line. Also, have now closed Great River Road out of Alton to all but local biz traffic.


I live in St. Peters, MO, and was watching the storm approach on radar. Saw the little appendage come out along the left side behind the pronounced notch. Saw that the same letter/number designation had persisted on the tornado vortex signature all the way from Moscow Mills. Saw that it was going to pass just to my north. So I went out and watched it with my next door neighbors while the sirens went off.
I didn't know at the time that there was for sure a tornado on the ground, since from our vantage point, 2 miles south, all we could see was the rotating wall cloud. But it was scary and impressive.
Quoting 77. tampabaymatt:

Parts of Costa Rica are in the 16th straight day of forced shut offs to conserve water. I had no idea the drought was so bad there. I think it’s just the Pacific side though.


I was in San Jose Costa Rica in 1974, and we had water on for only 20 minutes a day.
It was a wake up call.
Good evening folks from Germany. Have to confess I was distracted by the financial mess in Greece this weekend (even though we had a shiny thunderstorm in my town Mainz on Saturday, leaving some important roads flooded - which rarely happens as I live on the lee side of some mountains). Doc's entry has already mentioned that western Europe is in for a heatwave as well. It has already hit Spain and will make its way further north this week - until peaking in my town maybe with scorching 38C (100,4F):


Temperature forecast for the region of Mainz near Frankfurt (usually mid town you may add some degrees).

I've bought another fan today as our homes usually don't have A/Cs, so I should have around 30C (89F) in my flat day and night at the end of the week :-(

From the current synopsis of Estofex:
SYNOPSIS: An upper ridge is amplifying over Central and Western Europe, flanked by two troughs at its eastern and western periphery. An exceptionally hot airmass at the base of an elevated mixed layer will be advected from Iberia across Western France into the Southern UK.

Current BBC weather video is covering the heatwave as well.

All time recorded heat record for Germany, according to our National Weather Service DWD, is 40,2C = 104,36F (1983 and 2003) in southwestern Germany. It's not out of question that these records will be challenged this weekend.

Here is the GFS outlook for Saturday (surface temperatures):



Current airmasses over western Europe. Source.


Surface analysis for tomorrow. As you see, over very hot Spain there isn't just a high, but a low as well. BBC has explained it some days ago: <What is a Flabby Low ?

Poor Spain (and best wishes to our PlazaRed near Seville!):
Temperatures soar as heatwave hits Spain and Portugal
BBC, 4 hours ago
Excerpt: The Spanish cities of Cordoba, Seville and Toledo were some of the worst affected on Monday. Temperatures were expected to reach up to 44C (111F) in some areas.

BTW, part 2 of my holiday pictures of nature in central Germany is up, in case someone wants to have a look.
Quoting 116. LargoFl:




GFS says: Tropical critter by July 15?
Half a Million Acres Burned in Just One Day — Alaska Shatters Record For Worst June Wildfire Outbreak Ever

All throughout the mainstream media last week we heard the same myopic litany — ‘a massive wildfire outbreak ongoing in Alaska is not abnormal.’ Well, today, all pretense that there was anything normal about the 314 wildfires still raging throughout the state has gone up in a cloud of boreal forest, tundra, and thawed permafrost emitted smoke.

As of 6:28 AM Alaska time today, 1,912,000 acres had burned in Alaska since the start of the year. That’s roughly 1,800,000 more acres burned than just before the current wildfire outbreak started on June 18th and 497,000 more acres burned over just the last 24 hour period alone. By comparison, the previous worst ever June fire outbreak for Alaska during 2004 burned less than 1,200,000 acres of the Arctic state.


Link
Jupiter and Venus apparent distance less than the diameter of the full moon on the evening of June 30th. This reminds me of "When single shines the triple sun" in The Dark Crystal.



I love the orrery after 25:00 and the swamp scene after 31:20

Quoting 125. cytochromeC:



I was in San Jose Costa Rica in 1974, and we had water on for only 20 minutes a day.
It was a wake up call.
I live in Costa Rica and I believe the main source of the problem is a great increase in population without a concommitant increase in infrastructure for water. The north side of San Jose and adjacent communities to the North are among the most popular areas for settlement, but the water infrastructure has not kept up. A moderate drought hasn't helped either.
Isn't this when the MJO pulse comes by??? The GFS has been consistently showing something in the Caribbean or GOM, but it originates in the western Caribbean. It either moves north into the GOM, or either moves west across the Yucatan, and into the BOC towards Mexico. Again this is the GFS,and again this is 300+ hours out.JMA,and ECMWF are also hinting at lower pressures.
Quoting 131. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Isn't this when the MJO pulse comes by??? The GFS has been consistently showing something in the Caribbean or GOM, but it originates in the western Caribbean. It either moves north into the GOM, or either moves west across the Yucatan, and into the BOC towards Mexico. Again this is the GFS,and again this is 300+ hours out.JMA,and ECMWF are also hinting at lower pressures.


At 300+ hours, forecast models aren't usually reliable.
Quoting 129. BaltimoreBrian:

Jupiter and Venus apparent distance less than the diameter of the full moon on the evening of June 30th. This reminds me of "When single shines the triple sun" in The Dark Crystal.






One of my favorite "astronomy weather" sites, http://cleardarksky.com/
Find a location near you to see how visible this spectacle will be. (not very for me...)
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 5h5 hours ago Hudson, NH

Likely the strongest Westerly Wind Burst on record during Summer o/the Western-Central Pacific this week. #ElNino2015
Doodle loo

wah, wah, wahhhhhh'

Points of Origin by 10-Day Period

The figures below show the points of tropical cyclone genesis by 10-day periods during the hurricane season. These figures depict named storms only; no subtropical storms or unnamed storms. The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic and 1949-2009 for the Eastern Pacific from the HURDAT database.



Quoting 135. Patrap:



If shear doesn't let up in the Caribbean , it'll be the eastern most track. Or tropical waves will fight their way through the Caribbean, to the GOM to develop.
Hurricane Return Periods

Hurricane return periods are the frequency at which a certain intensity of hurricane can be expected within a given distance of a given location (for the below images 50 nm or 58 statute miles). In simpler terms, a return period of 20 years for a major hurricane means that on average during the previous 100 years, a Category 3 or greater hurricane passed within 50 nm (58 miles) of that location about five times. We would then expect, on average, an additional five Category 3 or greater hurricanes within that radius over the next 100 years.

More information on return periods can be found from NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC 38 (pdf) on the NHC Risk Analysis Program (HURISK).

Note: The information on return period is generated with the 1987 HURISK program, but uses data through 2010.


Quoting 134. StormTrackerScott:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 5h5 hours ago Hudson, NH

Likely the strongest Westerly Wind Burst on record during Summer o/the Western-Central Pacific this week. #ElNino2015



A moderate event is now in the rear view mirror.
The only question is if this becomes a super.
141. txjac
Why oh why can we find money to "help" so many ME countries when we turn our backs on our own Puerto Rico?

Puerto Rico governor calls for bankruptcy; adviser says island 'insolvent'



Link





Note my member start date, I became one for xtra radar frames as Cindy was forming.
Am I the only person who sees a counter clockwise turning of the winds at the tail end of that cold front.
It's hot. I'm going to close my eyes, and wish really really hard for air conditioning. Maybe if I wish hard enough it'll happen? Or better yet, maybe clouds will return?

It's 87F at 6PM.
Quoting 140. cytochromeC:



A moderate event is now in the rear view mirror.
The only question is if this becomes a super.
It doesn't have to be super, why are some here so hype for a super el nino? We could be pushing strong later this year but super is a big word to be throwing around.
146. txjac
Quoting 144. Seattleite:

It's hot. I'm going to close my eyes, and wish really really hard for air conditioning. Maybe if I wish hard enough it'll happen? Or better yet, maybe clouds will return?

It's 87F at 6PM.


You so sound like me ...
Have the AC but would prefer not to have to run it full time ...cloud cover works very nicely at cooling things off.
Took my pup for our walk at about 6ish this afternoon/evening ...real feel of 99 ...wish I would have waited a bit.
Have to get it in around six though or my nightly schedule is messed up
Been gone a couple days. My employer terminated me Friday for a failed drug screen. I haven't touched an illegal drug since college 20 years ago. To make the story short after speaking with the MRO on Saturday and determining that I had not failed the screen, I was re-instated.
I've never been fired before. That is a horrible feeling especially when you know that you have done no wrong.
Quoting 141. txjac:

Why oh why can we find money to "help" so many ME countries when we turn our backs on our own Puerto Rico?

Puerto Rico governor calls for bankruptcy; adviser says island 'insolvent'



Link


Puerto Rico receives about 6.5 billion from the federal government in total, most go to social safety net programs. Puerto Rico has been insolvent for years with high unemployment, high rates of welfare, and a bond rating just above junk. No one has turned their back on Puerto Rico, the problem was unsolvable. To put it another way, President Obama was the first sitting president to go to Puerto Rico in 50 years, this neglect has been systematic for decades. It is so bad, Puerto Rico's population is decreasing as many flee to the mainland.
Quoting 123. Michfan:



Its even more local than that. East Orlando has been pounded most of the rainy season, while the Winter Park area, not so much.


9 trees in my complex were hit by lightning last Tuesday from a Seabreeze collision and a Church was hit too.
Quoting 140. cytochromeC:



A moderate event is now in the rear view mirror.
The only question is if this becomes a super.


I think it does reach 2.3C to 2.5C come November based on this upcoming WWB and another come August.
Quoting 89. georgevandenberghe:



The upper air winds around the north (and south) pole are approximately in geostrophic balance. This means the pressure gradient force (high pressure to the south low to the north) is balanced by the coriolis force which pulls a moving body 90 degrees to the right of its direction of motion. The magnitude of this force is directly proportional to wind speed.

The pressure gradient aloft is determined primarily by temperature gradient. Stronger temperature gradient means higher pressure to the south, lower to the north and a stronger westerly (counterclockwise around the pole) wind in response.

When the pole warms in spring (faster than the midlatitudes and tropics), the temperature gradient weakens, the pressure gradient weakens and the coriolis force becomes stronger than the pressure gradient force and the circumpolar vortex (the belt of upper level westerlies around the pole) breaks down into eddies. It's beyond my knowledge to rigorously explain why this results in a concentration of energy into 3000km scale cutoffs but that is the observed behaviour and it is understood in the science, just not by me.

I also can't rigorously separate this behavior from classical quasi-geostrophic theory which explains how the potential energy in the circumpolar vortex feeds into the 3000 (or so) km eddies. This is BY FAR the dominant term in midlatitude cyclone energetics.

There is a second issue in spring in both hemispheres. The atmosphere warms from below in spring and static stability decreases. A larger spectrum of eddies in the basic state is therefore unstable and can amplify. In a stable atmosphere, the short waves are crushed because the ageostrophic circulations they excite wind up lifting cold air, and sinking warm air which converts their energy into basic state potential energy, damping them out. As stability decreases, the minimum wavelength for amplification also decreases so stuff that just dies in winter, can amplify into a big cutoff in spring.


Your question deserves a concise answer. I apologise for being unable to state it clearly.


Also anyone who sees error in my explanation, feel free to correct or improve it. In this case courtesy that leads to silence is not helpful.

Thank you so much for taking the time to answer my question, and in such a detailed way. It's much appreciated. And absolutely no need to apologize! I actually followed your explanation :-)


From the 8:05 EDT NHC Disco


ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
ALONG THE COAST TO INLAND OVER SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM MIAMI FLORIDA ALONG 28N78W TO
BEYOND 32N75W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED NEAR 27N78W
EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THIS IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ABOVE AND TO THE E GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N75W TO TO 30N71W
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN
67W-71W. A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 24N67W. A
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W ALONG 29N50W THEN NW TO
31N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N47W AND A 1027 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N57W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE DENSE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS
OR SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS FROM 6N-28N E OF 50W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT N THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
Quoting 133. ScottGridley:



One of my favorite "astronomy weather" sites, http://cleardarksky.com/
Find a location near you to see how visible this spectacle will be. (not very for me...)


My mother, who is the president of the local astronomy club here in Nashville, loves this site. They are repeatedly correct, far more often than Intellicast and the NWS.
Models are showing a rapid increase in SST's the next several weeks and is the reason why so many models are showing a greater than 2C ENSO

Quoting 111. baraktorvan:

It has been abnormally warm for the last week throughout the Pacific Northwest, and will be for the next week as well, with daytime temps being 20-30 degrees above normal and nights 10-20 degrees warmer. That would make it two weeks in a row with 90F+ temps for the Vancouver/Portland metro area. Very very abnormal and record books are being recorded with new entries.

Your first comment - welcome! Hope things cool down for you all out there soon.

Quoting 114. AreadersinceWilma:

Wonderful delightful slept with the windows wide open 56 degree weather in my corner of the world in Silver Spring, MD. No a/c, no heat.....NADA.

Now it's 86 degrees and expecting showers tonight.

It could be better, it could be worse but it is what it is.

"It could be better, it could be worse but it is what it is."

Love your attitude here :)

(And my favorite weather is when neither heat or AC is needed, and I can open the windows and let the fresh air in)
RIP Atlantic.

(Blue and purple colors represent upper-level divergence in which air is rising upward from the surface, whereas green, orange, and red colors represent upper-level convergence in which air is sinking from higher up in the atmosphere.)

Quoting 143. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Am I the only person who sees a counter clockwise turning of the winds at the tail end of that cold front.
I don't see any evidence of turning, just convection building and dissipating. The rainbow view tends to exaggerate cloud motions and isn't the best to use for such things.
Testing...
Test
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



*** Obama's EPA Rule Is Redrawing the U.S. Coal Map

* Ocean circulation and Arctic sea ice retreat

*** Retreating sea ice linked to changes in ocean circulation, could affect European climate

!!! Even stars older than 11 billion years have Earth-like planets: Precise ages of largest number of stars hosting planets ever measured

*** Extreme makeover: Humankind's unprecedented transformation of Earth

*** Helium leakage from Earth's mantle in Los Angeles Basin: New discoveries about Newport-Inglewood Fault Zone

!!! Particulate matter from modern gasoline engines damages our lungs

!!! Recent mercury pollution on the rise, but quick to change, study shows

Why are seabirds abandoning their ancestral nesting grounds in the Gulf of California?

Unexpectedly little black hole monsters rapidly suck up surrounding matter

Supercomputer model shows planet making waves in nearby debris disk



*** Spintronics advance brings wafer scale quantum devices closer to reality



* Men think they are maths experts, therefore they are: More men pursue science and engineering jobs because they readily overestimate how good they are in sums

!!! Supreme Court rules against Obama administration over air pollution rule

New research suggests nature walks are good for your brain

!!! An Ocean Mystery in the Trillions



*** Supreme Court's ruling comes too late for coal

Asteroid Day Takes Aim at Our Cosmic Blind Spot: Threats From Above

Did USDA suppress bee death research to protect pesticide industry? (video)

Cameroon: Flood-Hit Cameroon to Demolish Low Lying Urban Homes
Blog's broken again,. I guess a new post will eventually show up.
Quoting 145. Gearsts:

It doesn't have to be super, why are some here so hype for a super el nino? We could be pushing strong later this year but super is a big word to be throwing around.


Weekly 3.4 value still at +1.4
So it would take a heck of a lot increased and sustained conditions over the next three months to be even considered "strong" El-Nino.
Quoting 145. Gearsts:

It doesn't have to be super, why are some here so hype for a super el nino? We could be pushing strong later this year but super is a big word to be throwing around.


I sure am super tired of all this banter...
.
Quoting 144. Seattleite:

It's hot. I'm going to close my eyes, and wish really really hard for air conditioning. Maybe if I wish hard enough it'll happen? Or better yet, maybe clouds will return?

It's 87F at 6PM.


Living in Renton. I feel the pain.
BaltimoreBrian - 1 hour after sunset for me is July 9th at 2AM.

I don't think I will be able see Venus.
168. vis0

Quoting 30. islander101010:

the extra fees for the consumer could cause our fragile at best earth's economy to go to pot. happy no longer handicapped...new keyboard for $1.50 at a g.w.
And maybe spend 75cents buying a kid's cheap FOAM play keyboard in case something heavy like a book or fist falls (my proven theory from experience) on it again.
just saying since the space bar is a very  protected  key on the keyboard, has most connections, its in the middle so if keyboard falls its least to be hit...1 problem it has the most open area thus susceptible to spills...just my Hypotheses
well, I came home to my air conditioner frozen over, the 6'000 ft altitude plays games with them any time the dew point gets above about 20. have to flip it to fan for half an hour

also remember a nice holiday in CR, a beautiful spot on the Nicoya Peninsula, near Rio Bongo.

Quoting 167. Dakster:

BaltimoreBrian - 1 hour after sunset for me is July 9th at 2AM.

I don't think I will be able see Venus.


Venus is visible in daylight if you know where to look. It should be visible in the twilight.
Quoting 116. LargoFl:




Oh no.

Can you fathom the destruction?
Three years ago at this very time was the beginning of a huge ride for me. aka Derecho
GFS 12Z temperatures for Saturday.

...CMC


Quoting 147. HimacaneBrees:

Been gone a couple days. My employer terminated me Friday for a failed drug screen. I haven't touched an illegal drug since college 20 years ago. To make the story short after speaking with the MRO on Saturday and determining that I had not failed the screen, I was re-instated.
I've never been fired before. That is a horrible feeling especially when you know that you have done no wrong.

Well, that's got to be a horrifying feeling. I've known some people who failed/got fired, and I know they hadn't done drugs (I've also known a few who failed, but they had done drugs). It's the 'innocents' that really tick me off. There are definitely false positives out there.

Good thing you work for an organization that will reconsider the results, because many won't, unfortunately.

On a weather note, how did your family fare the other day? Watson seemed to be the center of the latest round of weather around here.
Quoting 171. JrWeathermanFL:



Oh no.

Can you fathom the destruction?

Wait a minute. That's just a 1012 mb low, right? Wouldn't think anything more than a tropical storm, if that.
Unprecedented!
177. vis0

Quoting 90. Dakster:



But I thought we only had clean coal now?

(sarcasm)

If someone calls the sign holder anti-americano (oops...anti-american) sign holder replies calmly and strongly;
 pro-health,
 pro-saving money in lowering OUR health bills
 pro-new energy technology
 pro YOU & me
 not pro-greed
Quoting 144. Seattleite:

It's hot. I'm going to close my eyes, and wish really really hard for air conditioning. Maybe if I wish hard enough it'll happen? Or better yet, maybe clouds will return?

It's 87F at 6PM.
I take it you're not a native of western WA.
Quoting 157. TropicalAnalystwx13:

RIP Atlantic.

(Blue and purple colors represent upper-level divergence in which air is rising upward from the surface, whereas green, orange, and red colors represent upper-level convergence in which air is sinking from higher up in the atmosphere.)


Woah. Who would have guessed?
Quoting 178. Barefootontherocks:

I take it you're not a native of western WA.


I've lived here on and off from the age of 6 onwards. I'm not really a native of any one place, as I moved very frequently as a child. However, in September I will have spent a grand total of 7 years in WA, which will be the longest I've spent in any one place during my short 30 years. I know it gets hot in the Summer from time to time. I was born in TX, if that is what you mean by native. I've paid my dues in FL, NC, and various other warmer places. The difference I've found is that I had air conditioning in all of those places!

Edit: Grammer. Meh.
181. beell
Quoting 159. Astrometeor:

Testing...

Resting...
Quoting 144. Seattleite:

It's hot. I'm going to close my eyes, and wish really really hard for air conditioning. Maybe if I wish hard enough it'll happen? Or better yet, maybe clouds will return?

It's 87F at 6PM.

I think the glaciers on Mount Olympus are not too happy. Note that the area in dots represents the glaciers. The forecast high for Thursday is 70 on the summit of Mount Olympus. Note also that the lows stay well above 50 for the next week, which is definitely not normal at the summit.
Quoting 180. Seattleite:



I've lived here on and off from the age of 6 onwards. I'm not really a native of any one place, as I moved very frequently as a child. However, in September I will have spent a grand total of 7 years in WA, which will be the longest I've spent in any one place during my short 30 years. I know it gets hot in the Summer from time to time. I was born in TX, if that is what you mean by native. I've paid my dues in FL, NC, and various other warmer places. The difference I've found is that I had air conditioning in all of those places!

Edit: Grammer. Meh.
I see. Thanks. Most people who live their lives up there, born in W WA or not, like the warm days. This time of year usually (6-8 weeks of sun) helps prepare a person for the return of the gray. Go to the beach and get a tan while you can. :)
185. vis0

So, In Fort Lauderdale we had some very severe weather earlier today. A supercell caused winds gusting to tropical storm force, and at my house many palm fronds fell off the trees. After the storm I went to see a movie at a local theater, and we had to go around the building because a bolt of lightning struck a tree and made it fall into a Five Guys. Overall, the storm today was very exciting, and it was the first severe thunderstorm in months… Hopefully this drought will end soon!
Quoting 162. sar2401:

Blog's broken again,. I guess a new post will eventually show up.
And it did, 45 minutes later...
Quoting 185. vis0:



The ITCZ is doing well...over in the Pacific.
Three plus days of 100F heat, plus a couple nights in the mid-70s (according to Accuweather). That is some serious! heat for Paris. I hope the area prepares to provide safe shelter for the vulnerable population.

I don't know what the humidity will be like during the day, but that is roasting by FL standards going by the heat index if humidity stays 35-40% or above. A 100F day with a humidity in the 15-20% range, however, would be slightly more comfortable than 92-94F here.
Quoting 186. Camerooski:

So, In Fort Lauderdale we had some very severe weather earlier today. A supercell caused winds gusting to tropical storm force, and at my house many palm fronds fell off the trees. After the storm I went to see a movie at a local theater, and we had to go around the building because a bolt of lightning struck a tree and made it fall into a Five Guys. Overall, the storm today was very exciting, and it was the first severe thunderstorm in months… Hopefully this drought will end soon!

You all certainly need the rain, I guess here in FL in the summer you can't have one without the other sometimes. I wouldn't mind a storm of that caliber here for a good 2-3" soaking. Would be well worth it.
Quoting 181. beell:


Resting...
Digesting...
Quoting 184. Barefootontherocks:

I see. Thanks. Most people who live their lives up there, born in W WA or not, like the warm days. This time of year usually (6-8 weeks of sun) helps prepare a person for the return of the gray. Go to the beach and get a tan while you can. :)


Lol. I spend my fair share of time at the beach. Don't get me wrong, I like the sun and all. It's just that the sun has been in the sky far too much this year. We've already had nearly two months of sunshine with very little rain (as in 6 days for May/June). It's too hot, too early. I usually only suffer 5-10 days a year with highs above 85. My forecast next week is all 85F+. At this point, I miss the normal clouds.
Quoting 161. BaltimoreBrian:


Did USDA suppress bee death research to protect pesticide industry? (video)


I haven't had a chance to delve into the news regarding the SCOTUS/EPA decision today (though I am very disappointed by the decision). But who needs that piece of news to get worked up?

This video link was the first one on your list I opened, and I can't express how p****d off this makes me. Muzzling scientists is the absolutely wrong way to go!

And on that note, my perusing comes to an end. I'm putting on some soothing music and hitting the sack. Good night, all.
Quoting 191. sar2401:

Digesting...

And the blog is...convalescing
Naga,
One of these days you'll have to realize "unprecedented " is a very long word which describes something that has never happened before. Never is a very long time, just as is the "Twelfth of Never" which is maybe a 1961 record of a different color than the 1961 record like broken at Walla Walla by 1 degree! This is hardly an example of "unprecedented." Since record-keeping began, yeah, that's accurate (add: assuming it's the same exact station, not a moved-around station like the one at Cranbrook.) Unprecedented - not.

Get off my back.
Quoting 181. beell:


Resting...


Besting...as in you are da best. ;)
Quoting 193. Seattleite:



Lol. I spend my fair share of time at the beach. Don't get me wrong, I like the sun and all. It's just that the sun has been in the sky far too much this year. We've already had nearly two months of sunshine with very little rain (as in 6 days for May/June). It's too hot, too early. I usually only suffer 5-10 days a year with highs above 85. My forecast next week is all 85F . At this point, I miss the normal clouds.
Western WA had lots of winter sun during the 1997 El Nino. Don't worry, the clouds* will return - when you least expect it. Enjoy the sun while you can.
bf out

(*More often solid gray skies than identifiable clouds)
199. vis0
Quoting 137. Patrap:

Points of Origin by 10-Day Period

The figures below show the points of tropical cyclone genesis by 10-day periods during the hurricane season. These figures depict named storms only; no subtropical storms or unnamed storms. The source years include 1851-2009 for the Atlantic and 1949-2009 for the Eastern Pacific from the HURDAT database.




or (WARNING reason the type of graphic i used is not used, you'll see
spots B$your eyes, i'll try another set of colours if there is a next
time) (removed made error in colour key-vis0) NO SAR22401 ya did not mix up the wrong meds.
Quoting 170. BaltimoreBrian:



Venus is visible in daylight if you know where to look. It should be visible in the twilight.


Once I saw Jupiter during daylight.
Quoting 196. Barefootontherocks:

Naga,
One of these days you'll have to realize "unprecedented " is a very long word which describes something that has never happened before. Never is a very long time, just as is the "Twelfth of Never" which is maybe a 1961 record of a different color than the 1961 record like broken at Walla Walla by 1 degree! This is hardly an example of "unprecedented." Since record-keeping began, yeah, that's accurate (add: assuming it's the same exact station, not a moved-around station like the one at Cranbrook.) Unprecedented - not.

Get off my back.


Ah yes, it's not unprecedented, because you have declared it so. I forgot, what day in June was hotter than June 28th 2015 in Walla Walla? Maybe you wrote it down somewhere and just forgot to report it.

Quoting 200. DCSwithunderscores:



Once I saw Jupiter during daylight.
I'm impressed! I haven't seen Jupiter in daylight, but I'd like to.
Quoting 162. sar2401:

Blog's broken again,. I guess a new post will eventually show up.


Quoting 192. sar2401:

quoting Naga5000: ..."One of these days you'll stop trying to mock information and come to terms with it."

That would be unprecedented!
Ha. Pretty funny. I see you understand English (and agree with Naga.) Truth is, I pay attention to detail when I read. Most people don't. They just read headlines and medians.

'Bye now, SAR. That's not the first time you've mocked me. Back on ignore...
They looked startling last night; I'm waiting for the clouds to clear so I can see it. :)

Quoting 129. BaltimoreBrian:

Jupiter and Venus apparent distance less than the diameter of the full moon on the evening of June 30th. This reminds me of "When single shines the triple sun" in The Dark Crystal.



I love the orrery after 25:00 and the swamp scene after 31:20


Quoting 202. BaltimoreBrian:

I'm impressed! I haven't seen Jupiter in daylight, but I'd like to.


It's easier if Jupiter is near Venus (to help find it), if the Sun is close to setting (if Venus and Jupiter are in the evening sky), if clouds are blocking the Sun and much of the sky above the Sun, but not blocking Jupiter and Venus, and of course if there is a considerable angle between Jupiter and the Sun. I just saw Jupiter again tonight after I posted that other comment, and about 5 minutes before local sunset. All of those conditions were met in both cases. I guess that it also helps if you're used to spotting Venus during daylight.
Quoting 202. BaltimoreBrian:

I'm impressed! I haven't seen Jupiter in daylight, but I'd like to.


I've never seen Jupiter in the daylight, though I've seen Venus several times last February on a clear, cold morning.
208. vis0
posted after cmmnt#137 Patrap present NHC images showing the 10 day trend as to Named storms around N America. (removed 1st aniGIf posted June 30 2:00AM GMT had incorrect colours in key)
below correct key colours

Quoting 147. HimacaneBrees:

Been gone a couple days. My employer terminated me Friday for a failed drug screen. I haven't touched an illegal drug since college 20 years ago. To make the story short after speaking with the MRO on Saturday and determining that I had not failed the screen, I was re-instated.
I've never been fired before. That is a horrible feeling especially when you know that you have done no wrong.


I'll suggest, to get beyond the emotional gut-wrench, you should rent and watch "Short Time" with Dabney Coleman. It rather hilariously explores just how weird a swapped clinical test result can get. Plus the best car chase scene ever. (Yes, better than The French Connection. Trust me on this.)
Quoting 186. Camerooski:

So, In Fort Lauderdale we had some very severe weather earlier today. A supercell caused winds gusting to tropical storm force, and at my house many palm fronds fell off the trees. After the storm I went to see a movie at a local theater, and we had to go around the building because a bolt of lightning struck a tree and made it fall into a Five Guys. Overall, the storm today was very exciting, and it was the first severe thunderstorm in months… Hopefully this drought will end soon!
Where I am a bit west of you I had 52MPH wind gusts, straight line winds that knocked down several palm fronds and dozens of tree branches, a very strong but refreshingly cool gust front, thunder beaucoup, lightning, but no rain, not a drop....though I saw it in the near distance and on radar.
.
Very unusual for my locale and in my experience.
One might even call it.....unprecedented.
.
.
So far in June I'm standing at .23".
One more day and we'll set an all-time record.
Quoting 209. nonblanche:



I'll suggest, to get beyond the emotional gut-wrench, you should rent and watch "Short Time" with Dabney Coleman. It rather hilariously explores just how weird a swapped clinical test result can get. Plus the best car chase scene ever. (Yes, better than The French Connection. Trust me on this.)


"Bullitt"
Decent 850mb vorticity near CV-SAL will surely hinder that one.

Quoting 205. nonblanche:

They looked startling last night; I'm waiting for the clouds to clear so I can see it. :)


Saw them tonight and thought from color one might be Mars, but was pretty sure saw it a couple of days earlier in Southern sky w/ another planet, thought Venus or Jupiter, now guessing Saturn?

Glad that storm missed you Sherwood (& mostly everyone else in St Charles County). Just hope we get some drier days & spot storms .5" or less if do get precip.
214. 882MB
What a well established monsoon trough in the W-PAC, this with good atmospheric conditions has generated these areas of interest, 94W and 95W for the last couple of days. Also a nice little spin just east of Philippine's coastline probably next invest?





Northwest Territories in Canada:

From NASA Worldview, for the 29th of June:

Link
216. 882MB






Can't get into the "regular" members blogs. None of them show up.
Quoting 215. ColoradoBob1:

Northwest Territories in Canada:

From NASA Worldview, for the 29th of June:

Link


That is not good... Although it has been rainy in Alaska which has helped to fight the fires here. Hope NWT gets the same help.
Largest freshwater lake on Earth was reduced to desert dunes in just a few hundred years

Researchers used satellite images to map abandoned shore lines around Palaeolake Mega-Chad, and analyzed sediments to calculate the age of these shore lines, producing a lake level history spanning the last 15,000 years.

Link
220. vis0

Quoting 143. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Am I the only person who sees a counter clockwise turning of the winds at the tail end of that cold front.
SIMPLE REPLY:: ya.

COMPLEX REPLY::
THE FOLLOWING ARE MY 22cents + a lint ball.



i've seen this area do that as if trying to turn over the engine the last 4-5 days, till all 3 levels join up one won't here the woOOSH of a TS but the rRrRrRrRrRrRrRrR sound of an engine trying to turn over ... no its not flooded Dakster.

One of my theories to help GFS was follow those (as one of the Caribbean bloggers called it "tropical lows going under the radar" as to me nature has 3x3 levels for every type of storm, here my explanation as to the more dominant 3 and the LLR.(lower Level Rotation...i prefer rotation as in the future when the Magmasphere is understood to influence weather via resonances and other neat tricks the word rotation will fit all three levels of the biosphere)

What happens if wind sheer is moderate as to storms trying to spin up of Africa's NW coast?
Since all 3 levels try to stay coupled, if the top receives continuous moderate sheer the entire stack goes bye bye, 'casuse the sheer was not strong enough to slice off the ULL/ULR (Upper Level Rotation).
If wind sheer is so strong and travels way over to a few hundred miles off Africa's western Coast then those storms coming off Africa are sliced by the sheer. Since the TD never had an opportunity to couple up, we then have a tropical low's Lower Level Rotation (LLL/LLR) going under the radar. When it meets up with the end of a front or another ULL or ULR or MLL/MLR(mag not mid. mag influences as to weather occurs via changes in energy within the Magmasphere i know too weird...remember last 2 pgs. of Dr's last blogbyte as to warmer ocean off the coast not being only atmospherically caused, i stated majeekal-device is part of the influence here another part but don't tell them shhh) so lets stick to what is known.

These LLR once they go under an ULR they have an opportunity to rotate in sync or join up and SPIN SPIN SPIN. This is just one reason (i say not fact...yet?) we see TS develope closer to the homeland during high wind sheer periods as opposed to last years moderate wind sheer as i've counted ~5 ot 7 LLR break off the African coast and make it to the Caribbean (more ran into S. America) 2 went under ULR and formed "Independent " Ana & "confounded" Bill.

(try this with SAL, there is a similar theory i have, where severe SAL would not bother the development of certain types of Tropical Development as much as moderate SAL, BUT first discover the Magmasphere effects on weather then try magnetic affects on SAL and vice versa.

Its as if nature allows a higher opportunity of mixing at low and high contrast but not so good when contrasting areas are in the middle)

(washi115 come back with that school magnet why are you taking it on a ship trip...(i said ship, lets be adults and all flush those low level jokes out of our system, there... much better)
vis is on a roll tonight. I didn't need the whole 22 cents so here's 20 Cents back.

Here's to the hope of some heat relief. I still don't think anything is going to develop in the Atlantic just yet.

Give it time, August isn't that far away...
Given Dr. Masters mention of record heat in Washington State, going back to 1961, there's an interesting analog for 1961, if record heat in the Northwest is any hint of what is to come.

Quote Wikipedia's write up on the 1961 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

"The 1961 Atlantic hurricane season featured the highest number of major hurricanes – Category 3 or higher on the modern-day Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale – until being tied by 2005."










Quoting 201. Naga5000:



Ah yes, it's not unprecedented, because you have declared it so. I forgot, what day in June was hotter than June 28th 2015 in Walla Walla? Maybe you wrote it down somewhere and just forgot to report it.


"Unprecedented" is a useful term for temperature records. The second definition at Dictonary.com is "never before known or experienced". It's unknown if the record high was ever bested because no records were kept. We don't know if anyone ever experienced a higher temperature because it was never recorded. Within the known record, a new record high for a month is unprecedented. The very nature of temperature records makes a definition of "never happened before in the history of the world" not useful since we can only compare temperature records with the previous readings.
NWT stretched as Canada-wide firefighter supply dwindles

Western Canada experienced more than 600 fires over the weekend, according to territorial authorities.

Canadian provinces and territories pool their firefighting resources in these circumstances. While the NWT has requested more backup, other provinces are perceived to have a “dire need” and are first in line.

“Saskatchewan, for instance, is undergoing a series of evacuations of communities,” said Frank Lepine, the territory’s associate director of forest management. “Manitoba is pretty close to that.

“The NWT will be receiving some single resources but no more crews at this time. [But] that may change by the end of the week.”

There are 129 fires burning in the NWT, which has experienced a total of 158 fires so far this season. The 20-year average is 66 fires for this time of year.


Link
Quoting 218. Dakster:



That is not good... Although it has been rainy in Alaska which has helped to fight the fires here. Hope NWT gets the same help.


Olsen described the conditions some of the territory’s firefighters have now been facing for many weeks, with the season not yet at its expected peak.

“When we get into these extreme types of conditions, you have to imagine a wall of flame that goes from the forest floor – all the way down into the forest floor – all the way well beyond the height of the forest trees,” said Olsen.

“It’s not unusual for flames to be in excess of 50 or 60 feet above the height of the trees. The amount of heat coming off that is pretty much enough that it could melt metal.

“You absolutely do not put people in front of that, or anywhere near that, or any direction that it’s coming from.”


Link
Typing at 0109 CDT. We'll see when this actually gets posted.
Quoting 80. Patrap:

NBC tells Donald Trump and the Apprentice,

"You're Fired"





he really is a horrible person
228. vis0
Quoting 180. Seattleite:



I've lived here on and off from the age of 6 onwards. I'm not really a native of any one place, as I moved very frequently as a child. However, in September I will have spent a grand total of 7 years in WA, which will be the longest I've spent in any one place during my short 30 years. I know it gets hot in the Summer from time to time. I was born in TX, if that is what you mean by native. I've paid my dues in FL, NC, and various other warmer places. The difference I've found is that I had air conditioning in all of those places!

Edit: Grammer. Meh.
Lets see seattleite is looking for a way to stay cool?

TRY the ESKIMOLD (HAH try to figure out the BTUs on this baby, sar2401)

Water shortage? in Washington, Maybe a few cases of something bubbly near by, one can use that instead of water and here a bonus if yer tongue gets stuck on the ice no need to yell!!!!!!!! for help just suckle. No its not headquarters for the 3amigas%uFFFD(to the power of 2 was De-formated after edit) ("washingtonian115", "Labonbon", "barbamz" while the power of 2 are "chicklet", (the name of a WxU member i forget "jazzy???" (keep thinking jazzhands) of the person that moved from Illinois to down south, Seattleite)...Seattleite took my place, i added myself since some think i'm a woman......put yer hand down Temporary Altitude Zombie.  ...oh well i guess i'll take the role of the hidden voice of John Forsythe, WHAT!!?!! Grothar has that, darn! i guess i'm Tom Bosley.
Quoting 226. sar2401:

Typing at 0109 CDT. We'll see when this actually gets posted.


Ahh so I am not the only one having issues... And Vis is hitting the vodka again I see.

Gotta go get the popcorn, the Trump vs. the world that scorned him is getting good... At least until we have to hope a storm that has formed isn't gonna hit us.
Quoting 228. vis0:
darn! i guess i'm Tom Bosley.
Dude,

You are much more like John Fahey. You are so weird even the aficionados of weird recognize your extreme talents. Chris Strackwitz of Arhoolie Records said as much.

Here, too.
fore.


Quoting 230. tampabaymatt:




So southern AZ will get over 1 inch while I'm expecting a half inch the next 7 days? Last I checked, southern AZ averages 6-12 inches a year, what a joke.
Quoting 173. wilsongti45:

GFS 12Z temperatures for Saturday.

...CMC




Good morning. Probably new records in the making:


Latest output for Paris with up to 42C (107,6F). Source: wetteronline.de
Wiki about summer temps in Paris: Some years have even witnessed long periods of harsh summer weather, such as the heat wave of 2003 when temperatures exceeded 30 °C (86 °F) for weeks, surged up to 40 °C (104 °F) on some days and seldom cooled down at night. ... The highest recorded temperature is 40.4 °C (104.7 °F) on 28 July 1948 ...

The latest forcast for my place Mainz: 39C (102F) on the weekend, uuaah:
california is seeing a surge in humidity coming from the east
Nino 3.4 is finally going to breach 1.5 C for the first time in this year, which will make it three regions in a strong territory, yay. Nino 4 also going up.


looking east of florida for a little spin up
Nino 3.4 is practically there, only one to go now.


Morning, WU. Looks like parts of West Texas got 6 inches of rain in 2 hours. Flash flood warnings issued.


Off topic, but is anyone else having difficulty accessing Community Member Blogs. When I go to 'All Blogs' they aren't listed at the bottom and the activity summary on the right side of the page indicates none in the last 24 hours.
Quoting 234. barbamz:


Good morning. Probably new records in the making:


Latest output for Paris with up to 42C (107,6F). Source: wetteronline.de
Wiki about summer temps in Paris: Some years have even witnessed long periods of harsh summer weather, such as the heat wave of 2003 when temperatures exceeded 30 °C (86 °F) for weeks, surged up to 40 °C (104 °F) on some days and seldom cooled down at night. ... The highest recorded temperature is 40.4 °C (104.7 °F) on 28 July 1948 ...

The latest forcast for my place Mainz: 39C (102F) on the weekend, uuaah:


Yes. We're on launch. Records could go in France, BeNeLux, Germany, Poland. Grtz from NL.
Yup..I see no community blogs either..The site has a death wish. So we all may need a new place to go.
trump is right about our trade deals. usa gets the short stick
Must have been a glitch , the community blog index has returned
Quoting 242. outrocket:

Yup..I see no community blogs either..The site has a death wish. So we all may need a new place to go.
Quoting 244. outrocket:

Must have been a glitch , the community blog index has returned

So, from "the site has a death wish" to "must have been a glitch" in a matter of minutes. Patience pays, my friend. patience pays... ;-)
Quoting 245. Neapolitan:

So, from "the site has a death wish" to "must have been a glitch" in a matter of minutes. Patience pays, my friend. patience pays... ;-)


Unprecedented patience?
Quoting 245. Neapolitan:

So, from "the site has a death wish" to "must have been a glitch" in a matter of minutes. Patience pays, my friend. patience pays... ;-)

First time I have ever said I agree with you...
Maybe a day for first?
Heavy Rains in Central China Kill 15, Leave 19 Missing

BEIJING — Four days of heavy rain have caused severe flooding in central China, killing at least 15 people and leaving 19 others missing, China's Ministry of Civil Affairs said Tuesday.

The deaths in four provinces and one municipality were from drownings, mudslides and house collapses, the ministry said.

Up to 51.4 centimeters (20 inches) of rain fell in the eastern city of Changzhou from Friday to Monday, and water levels of rivers and lakes were dangerously high in a six-province region across the country's central part, the ministry said.

Millions of people have been affected by the heavy rains since Friday and tens of thousands were relocated, the ministry said.


Link
249. vis0
IMPORTANT:: Notice its ONLY till 0815UTC (busy day only could create up to 0815UTC before i head out)

CREDIT:: NOAA & University of Washington
D&T:: on aniGIF
IMAGERY:: a blend of 3 (visX).
NOTE:: will someone grab the steam hose that disconnected its gushing steam all over the wATL a few hundred miles off Florida's East coast.
image host
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST June 30 2015
==========================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 17F [1000 hpa) located at 4.7S 160.2E is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots. Position poor based on multispectral enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has improved slightly in the past 24 hours. Deep convection remains persistent but displaced to the west of low level circulation center. The lies to the north of an upper ridge in a low to moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Global models agree on a westwards movement with some intensification.

Potential for this tropical depression to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is HIGH

This will be the last tropical disturbance summary for Tropical Depression 17F as it is expected to move out of RSMC NADI Area of Responsibility in the next few hours.
way out in time but............................................... ................
That trough North of the Bahamas is a sheared mid-level feature that will most likely not develop although the convection will continue as is drifts towards the upper level Tutt cell draped over Hispanola:
Mid-Level:

Upper Level (Tutt Cell):

Shear:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078- 079-011200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
545 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREAMS
AND CREEKS ALONG WITH AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS OR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO IF THREATENING WEATHER IS APPROACHING YOUR AREA.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT.
255. vis0

Quoting 240. rod2635:

Off topic, but is anyone else having difficulty accessing Community Member Blogs. When I go to 'All Blogs' they aren't listed at the bottom and the activity summary on the right side of the page indicates none in the last 24 hours.
yesterday eve had a similar thing with my WxU favs but they're back
Quoting 249. vis0:

IMPORTANT:: Notice its ONLY till 0815UTC (busy day only could create up to 0815UTC before i head out)

CREDIT:: NOAA & University of Washington
D&T:: on aniGIF
IMAGERY:: a blend of 3 (visX).
NOTE:: will someone grab the steam hose that disconnected its gushing steam all over the wATL a few hundred miles off Florida's East coast.
image host
It looks like you picture covers from sometime yesterday afternoon until midnight (EDT) or so. It's not quite as steamy now. The remains of our "super" cold front are out in the Atlantic dissipating but clearly depending on the Gulf Stream for a little sustenance. There's a little bloberino near the Bahamas that's also trying to use the Gulf Stream to do something but it looks like it will follow its siblings out into the cooler Atlantic and keel over. Another cold front is headed east toward the Atlantic. An MCS has developed in central MA and AL with more convection than that "super" cold front ever had. It doesn't look likely that any rain will get to me, darn it. There's an el monstro low for almost July out over the Plains that's going to spawn another front over the next couple of days. This is the kind of pattern that's a good setup for a tail end low to form off a front from the east coast of Florida to South Carolina. It will be interesting to watch and see if anything actually does develop, especially since this is about the only chance we have for any tropical development over the next week or so.

Woohoo, got my sun screen! bring it!
Quoting 234. barbamz:


Good morning. Probably new records in the making:


Latest output for Paris with up to 42C (107,6F). Source: wetteronline.de
Wiki about summer temps in Paris: Some years have even witnessed long periods of harsh summer weather, such as the heat wave of 2003 when temperatures exceeded 30 °C (86 °F) for weeks, surged up to 40 °C (104 °F) on some days and seldom cooled down at night. ... The highest recorded temperature is 40.4 °C (104.7 °F) on 28 July 1948 ...

The latest forcast for my place Mainz: 39C (102F) on the weekend, uuaah:

Quoting 233. Jedkins01:



So southern AZ will get over 1 inch while I'm expecting a half inch the next 7 days? Last I checked, southern AZ averages 6-12 inches a year, what a joke.
Meanwhile the Mississippi River is in major flood stage at Cape Girardeau


Quoting 233. Jedkins01:



So southern AZ will get over 1 inch while I'm expecting a half inch the next 7 days? Last I checked, southern AZ averages 6-12 inches a year, what a joke.


These precip forecast maps flip-flop too much to be trustworthy. Just yesterday it was showing around 1.25" over the next week, now just 0.25-0.5", really? In the middle of the rainy season, we should be getting at least 1.5" per week just to maintain the average.
Quoting 252. weathermanwannabe:

That trough North of the Bahamas is a sheared mid-level feature that will most likely not develop although the convection will continue as is drifts towards the upper level Tutt cell draped over Hispanola:Shear:

That's the highest shear in the Caribbean I've seen in a long time. Not hard to understand why there are gales in the SW Caribbean. Even the western Gulf and BOC are under the influence of some very high shear levels. Only the eastern Gulf has lower shear but there's nothing going on there to take advantage of it. That area north of the Bahamas is the only thing that looks halfway promising. Otherwise, El Nino seems to be doing its job shutting down the Caribbean and most of the Gulf.
Quoting 251. LargoFl:

way out in time but............................................... ................
You know the pickings are getting mighty slim when the best the GFS can do is show a 1009 mb low hundreds of miles off the mid-Atlantic coast riding the Gulf Stream north 16 days from now.
 
Quoting 243. islander101010:

trump is right about our trade deals. usa gets the short stick
Donald Trump isn't even right about the weather. Trade deals are good for trade dealers. You must be confusing the public with the USA "national interests". How silly. Donald Trump posing as a faux populist is one of the best jokes of the season. Donald helps us answer the question "just how dumb is the average American?" Consider this.... Trump has been a national celebrity for the last 25 years. What does that say about us?  :)

Buy Ivanka! Get the whole collection! And you don't even need to be a church!
Quoting 244. outrocket:

Must have been a glitch , the community blog index has returned

The site has been having intermittent outages over the past 24 hours. I guess they are working on something. The performance now that they've dumped Classic has been nothing less than spectacular. :-)

Telling current IR-loop of western Europe with the increasing heatwave. (Saved loop)


Matches the jetstream of course. (Source)
cv season should be interesting. the tw's should be quite sheared as they cross the atlantic. see what happens when they enter more favorable areas near the bahamas or gulf
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (1509)
21:00 PM JST June 30 2015
==========================
Near Marshall Island

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (1002 hPa) located at 10.0N 159.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Gale Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
==================
24 HRS: 10.2N 157.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marshall Island
48 HRS: 10.5N 154.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Truks (Chuuk) waters
72 HRS: 11.2N 150.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Truks (Chuuk) waters
Quoting 262. rayduray2013:

 
Donald Trump isn't even right about the weather. Trade deals are good for trade dealers. You must be confusing the public with the USA "national interests". How silly. Donald Trump posing as a faux populist is one of the best jokes of the season. Donald helps us answer the question "just how dumb is the average American?" Consider this.... Trump has been a national celebrity for the last 25 years. What does that say about us?  :)

Buy Ivanka! Get the whole collection! And you don't even need to be a church!

Oh, come now. The Donald is only popular because we love to watch a rich guy that's also a moron. We love to see him crash and burn with almost every business he's started. We love to see his ex-wives extracting their pounds of flesh. We love to see a guy who says he's going to run for president every four years since 1988 but never has. Most of all, we love to watch because we can say "Lookey there, Mabel. Even my hair don't look that bad." :-)


Might be some rain coming for you Sar.
Interesting Dr. Masters---Is the extreme jet stream related to the use of petroleum and the thinning ozone? Is this relation/link a. very clear b. probable c. vaguely related d. not related??
Thanks. Michael Parker, Puyallup, WA

Quoting 267. sar2401:

The Donald is only popular because we love to watch a rich guy that's also a moron. We love to see him crash and burn with almost every business he's started.
Hmm, I've read that The Donald has successfully maneuvered out of every bankrupt real estate deal he's orchestrated way before his junior investors were left holding an empty bag. I completely disagree about the term "moron". That just isn't The Donald. He's way ahead of the herd. The Donald is the ultimate corporate sharkskin salesman. His limited partnerships seem designed for failure, just not his failure. Bill Maher quipped last week that Donald is so opaque that he could believe that a guy claiming to be worth $9 Billion might really be worth a net negative $300 million. I think Maher might be on to something. :)
Quoting 264. barbamz:


Telling current IR-loop of western Europe with the increasing heatwave. (Saved loop)


Matches the jetstream of course. (Source)
That's quite a high pressure system over you. Seems highs over Europe and the eastern US are going to be the weather story for the next week or so. Thank goodness I've never been in Paris during a real heatwave. A lot of the shops were closing at noon when I was there because it was just too hot to work. I think the high was 85. The worst I've seen in Europe was July of 1996 in Slovenia. It was near 100 for four straight days. Between no air conditioning, non-functional air conditioning, and no one wanting to open a window on a train or bus because of the dreaded draft effect, I thought I was going to die. A cold front came through on the fifth day with some really impressive thunderstorms. The high after the front was 59. It then rained every day for a week. If my late wife wasn't half Slovenian I don't think I would have ever gone back.
Science & Environment
Climate change plans require urgent action, government warned

By Helen Briggs
BBC Environment correspondent
2 hours ago


The UK must take urgent action to prepare for the impact of climate change, the government has been warned.

Ministers should focus on the future risks of heatwaves and flooding, says the Committee on Climate Change.
Its report said more needed to be done to keep emissions on track, although the government said it was committed to meeting its climate change target.

It also warned a decision to stop onshore wind farm subsidies early could potentially add £1bn a year to bills.
The report by the Committee on Climate Change looked at progress towards meeting carbon emission targets and how the UK is preparing for climate change risks.

Chairmen Lord Deben and Lord Krebs said measures were needed to address increased flood risk to homes and to protect farmland from declines in productivity.

Lord Krebs said: "By the 2050s the sort of heatwaves we might experience in the next few days will be the norm, a typical summer."
The committee also called for action to make homes and buildings safer during heatwaves.

"Just as we've been encouraging on the mitigation side retrofit of loft insulation and so on, we need to think how to develop passive cooling measures maybe tinted glass, shading, again as is common in other countries," Lord Krebs said.

Lord Deben added that decisions on carbon-cutting policies needed to be made "urgently" to give companies time to invest.
The committee is also advising the government to:

• Extend funding for low-carbon electricity generation to 2025
• Continue support for efficient, low-emission vehicles
• Develop new infrastructure that is resilient to the impacts of climate change
• Act to counter the decline in productive farmland.
The committee said the government has a duty to explain to the public how it intends to replace the energy from wind turbines in the countryside.

'Coherent policies'

Onshore wind is the cheapest option but the government announced it would end subsidies from April 2016, a year early, after protests from countryside residents.

The committee's calculation of the additional £1bn a year on bills would be the result of ministers deciding to replace the lost output from onshore wind by increasing the supply of electricity for offshore wind.

The Department of Energy and Climate Change said the government was committed to meetings its climate change target of an 80% emissions reduction by 2050.

Analysis - Roger Harrabin, Environment Analyst

The government's decision to stop future subsidies for onshore wind will cost the public around an extra £1bn a year if the lost energy is replaced by offshore wind, according to the committee.

The government recently responded to complaints about wind farms in the countryside by announcing an early end to the onshore wind subsidy programme.
The committee said the government now has a duty under the Climate Change Act to explain to the public how it intends to replace the energy from wind turbines on land - and to tell people how much it will cost.

The committee says onshore wind is the cheapest option for bill-payers. The government says it is still committed to its climate targets but hasn't offered any explanation as to how it will fill the gap created by the end to new onshore wind.

"We have already made great strides to that goal, with emissions down 30% since 1990," said a spokesperson. "There's still much work to do and we will continue to power our move to a low-carbon economy at best value to consumers."

Commenting on the report, former Shell chairman Lord Oxburgh of Liverpool said the government needed to bring forward decarbonisation policies quickly to retain its moral authority on climate change.

"Ministers need to come forward very soon with coherent policies on energy efficiency, low-carbon transport, renewable heat and renewable electricity, otherwise the UK will fall behind other nations and lose its moral authority on the international stage," he said.

And Julie Hirigoyen, chief executive of the UK Green Building Council, said: "The government must follow its advice and agree an action plan for energy efficiency which results in homes that are cheaper to heat and that are shielded from the worst effects of climate change."

Share this story Ab
I'm not impressed.


Quoting 273. Grothar:

I'm not impressed.





Trending "West' seems

Quoting 270. rayduray2013:


Hmm, I've read that The Donald has successfully maneuvered out of every bankrupt real estate deal he's orchestrated way before his junior investors were left holding an empty bag. I completely disagree about the term "moron". That just isn't The Donald. He's way ahead of the herd. The Donald is the ultimate corporate sharkskin salesman. His limited partnerships seem designed for failure, just not his failure. Bill Maher quipped last week that Donald is so opaque that he could believe that a guy claiming to be worth $9 Billion might really be worth a net negative $300 million. I think Maher might be on to something. :)

I think you're confusing the intellectual abilities of the Donald with the guys he hires to run things. In interviews I've read it's pretty clear he has a very poor understanding of the businesses he's in. His one area of success has been real estate development, and that's mostly because his father grubstaked him with about $50 million and a bunch of NYC properties. He is smart enough to know when to let people smarter than him run things. When he's gotten a wild hair about things and does them himself (Atlantic City, for example) the results have been uniformly bad. When it comes to his net worth, why do you think he's never actually run for president? It takes actual cash to do that, and the Donald is always strapped for cash. He's only a billionaire because of the supposed value of the properties he owns. He's like the average farmer - land rich and cash poor.

Quoting 269. Mikaroni:

Interesting Dr. Masters---Is the extreme jet stream related to the use of petroleum and the thinning ozone? Is this relation/link a. very clear b. probable c. vaguely related d. not related??
Thanks. Michael Parker, Puyallup, WA
Hi Michael,

Welcome to the blog. Dr. Masters is probably busy and will address your question in upcoming blog entries. As a comment though, I'll say that the jet stream in the Northern Hemisphere has become entirely discombobulated in the last few years. While the Southern polar jet stream still maintains some degree of "normalcy" and appears much as it has in decades past, the Northern Polar Jet is mess.

One of the real experts on this matter is Rutgers University's Dr. Jennifer Francis. Here's some YouTube videos that provide a good primer on the topic.

Regarding petroleum, I'd say you might wish to expand that concept to the full carbon picture. That would include coal, natural gas (both fossil and biologic) and seasonal plant growth and decay. Oh, yeah, and extremist enviros want you to be aware of cow farts, too. There's a number of different ways that we create anthropogenic greenhouses gases. This is the main interest in the world as we approach the next major climate summit in Paris in December.

As to the ozone hole, there's good news. We have enforced the Montreal Protocol and no longer manufacture the chlorine based gases that were the primary cause for expanding the ozone hole over Antarctica. This is unrelated to the jet stream, inasmuch as the ozone hole is in the stratosphere, well above the 30,000 foot or so elevation of the jet stream.
Quoting 268. tampabaymatt:



Might be some rain coming for you Sar.
I wish. That MCS has spawned some severe thunderstorms in the BIrmingham area with many reports of trees and powerlines down. If you watch the movement of the MCS, it's almost due east. I'm down in the far right hand corner of the state. There's a small chance the MCS might expand in the heating of the day. It's 84 here with a dewpoint of 75 so conditions aren't bad for for some intensification. Very few systems that primarily target Birmingham ever make it this far south or, if they do, they wash out before they get here. It would be nice if this one was an outlier though.
From Climate Crocks:

As Arctic Warms, Shrinking Ice Brings Unwelcome Surprises for Drillers, Shippers



David Barber is a fascinating speaker and great personality in the arctic ice world.
His TED talk here dovetails nicely with the Stanford Research on Extreme weather profiled today, and yesterday’s piece on the risks of new Arctic Drilling.

If you are pressed for time, start at 9:14 for a paradoxical surprise – decrease in sea ice coincides with increase in hazards, due to new kinds of very unpredictable ice dynamics. Ironic and very significant for those interested in exploiting the melting Arctic, no?

At 11:05 there is a discussion of arctic effects on global jet stream circulation and weather patterns.

Read more >>
"Ice Road Trucker's" may need to change to "Airboat Trucker's" next season.



Stop it Patrick', eh?
Quoting 279. Patrap:

"Ice Road Trucker's" my need to change to "Airboat Trucker's" next season.



Stop it Patrick', eh?


Those would be whopping airbouats!!!
Quoting 277. sar2401:

I wish. That MCS has spawned some severe thunderstorms in the BIrmingham area with many reports of trees and powerlines down. If you watch the movement of the MCS, it's almost due east. I'm down in the far right hand corner of the state. There's a small chance the MCS might expand in the heating of the day. It's 84 here with a dewpoint of 75 so conditions aren't bad for for some intensification. Very few systems that primarily target Birmingham ever make it this far south or, if they do, they wash out before they get here. It would be nice if this one was an outlier though.


We've been getting almost daily showers here in Mobile. Some are downpours, but rarely do we get more than an inch per day.
Quoting 273. Grothar:

I'm not impressed.

Southern Hemisphere this time of year.. Have to admit I'm a little impressed. Just got designated 25P. Being across the equator from 09W & 94W, do I even need to speculate what this could do for El Niño?

Just to be clear of here...
Quoting the blog header: "According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the 113°F measured in Walla Walla, Washington beat that state's previous June record of 112°F, set at John Day Dam on June 18, 1961."
Precedented.
Fifty-four years ago, 112 set the precedent for 113 - - - that is

IF you consider valid a comparison to a "state's previous June record" where one temperature happened at Walla Walla and one at John Day Dam.

IF you accept the idea of looking at a state's "June record" as valid when the temperature happens anywhere in any microclimate in a state like WA where weather and geography is as varied as a crazy quilt. The gorge and Walla Walla have their own microclimates - but that's a whole 'nother story called "Let's compare snowfall in a record storm at Thompson Pass (AK) with some nearby stations at Tazlina Lake and oh, even Cordova, on the same day." One place, a mountain range. One, a windblown flatland. The third, a coastal town.
.
Comparable - the old record and the new? Maybe not. But if that's the way it's done, and it is acceptable not to look at details, so be it. Must be "the devil is in the details." lpl
...

The devil made me do it.
~Flip Wilson
Washington State Town Burns As 'Mind Blowing' Wildfires Send Hundreds Fleeing
AP
Posted: 06/29/2015 7:01 pm E


WENATCHEE, Wash. (AP) -- From just across the Wenatchee River, Dominick Bonny watched a whole neighborhood in his central Washington town burn as a wildfire destroyed two dozen homes and forced hundreds to flee.

"With the wind blowing away from us, it was like we were watching a natural disaster within arm's reach," he said.

The wildfires hit parts of central and eastern Washington over the weekend as the state is struggling with a severe drought. Mountain snowpack is at extremely low levels, and about one-fifth of the state's rivers and streams are at record low levels.

Eastern Washington has been experiencing temperatures into the 100s, and last week Washington Gov. Jay Inslee issued an emergency proclamation that allows state resources to quickly be brought in to respond to wildfires.

Washington's struggles with wildfires come as Alaska, its fellow Pacific Northwest state, is facing more and harsher wildfires this year.

In Wenatchee, the wildfire fueled by high temperatures and strong winds roared into town Sunday afternoon. The blaze ignited in brush just outside Wenatchee, quickly burning out of control about 120 miles east of Seattle.

Rainfall on Monday provided relief, but hot, dry conditions and wind could challenge crews trying to get a handle on the flames that burned more than an estimated 4 square miles, officials said. Three firefighters suffered minor injuries, but no injuries to residents were reported.

Fire crews were concentrating on preventing any more homes from being burned Monday, State Patrol Trooper Brian Moore said. Crews were working to put out hot spots in already burned areas, while keeping an eye on winds that were expected to reach 15 to 20 mph Monday evening and could fan flames again.

Albert Rookard, who lives across the Wenatchee River from the blaze, stayed up late watching the fire, and he was shocked at how fast it grew.

"From here, we could see embers just flying," Rookard said. "There was fire in so many places. We could see emergency vehicles flashing across town."

Evacuations were mainly in the north end of town and included a Wal-Mart store, the Chelan County Emergency Management office said. The store did not burn, but several commercial buildings were near the blaze, Washington State Patrol Trooper Darren Wright said.

Emergency management officials late Monday morning also briefly issued a shelter-in-place order after ammonia started leaking from a fruit warehouse. They later said it had dissipated and was no longer a threat.

The Blue Bird warehouse, which uses ammonia for cold-storage, was among a few commercial buildings to burn.

Bonny, who lives just outside Wenatchee, called the speed of the blaze "just mind-blowing."

"We're fine now," Bonny said. "Last night we watched the entire hill burn."

Phil Bentz, who lives on the same side of the river as the fire, said his home hadn't been evacuated. "We were waiting for someone to knock on the door, but they didn't come. So far, so good," Bentz said.

About noon Monday, fire trucks poured water on a burning warehouse in downtown Wenatchee, sending big black clouds into the air over the city. Farther north of town, scorched hillsides showed where the flames were stopped just short of irrigated apple orchards and residential subdivisions.

Officials know the fire started in brush on the edge of town, but they are still trying to determine what sparked it. Sweltering heat above 100 degrees, tinder-dry brush and strong winds helped fuel it.

Last month, Inslee declared a statewide drought emergency.

State Lands Commissioner Peter Goldmark has banned all outdoor fires on state land protected by the Natural Resources department, and campfires have been banned at state parks and on state-controlled ocean beaches.

Railroad traffic in the area has been shut down, including freight lines and Amtrak's daily Chicago-to-Seattle route, BNSF Railway spokesman Gus Melonas said.

The railroad helped battle the blaze by spraying water from tank cars and transferring water to firefighting trucks, he said.

Hilda Emerson, 37, was among the people who fled the flames Sunday.

"I went and grabbed what I could - my computers, irreplaceable stuff, toys for my daughter - and I left," she said. "I never had to do this before."

She and her 4-year-old daughter, Nissa, spent the night on cots set up by the Red Cross in the gymnasium of Eastmont High School in East Wenatchee. She planned to check on her home later in the day.

MORE:
Quoting 281. JustDucky251:



We've been getting almost daily showers here in Mobile. Some are downpours, but rarely do we get more than an inch per day.
There's a chance you could get something from this as it pivots NE with the front. It's kind of like playing snap the whip as the tail end comes over you. The weather in Mobile is so different than here. You've got direct communication with the Gulf, and are just far enough west to be influenced more by fronts than me. Except for the 0.06" from our "super" cold front last weekend, I haven't had significant rain since June 14. At least it's not as hot this week so the remaining soil moisture isn't being sucked out as fast. Unless that MCS manages to give me something, I'll close out the month at 3.89", about an inch below normal. Even that's deceptive, since about 3.25" of that total came from three torrential downpours instead of being spread out through the month like you've had.
Blob Con 1, in case no one noticed

Maaaaaaaaasive flare up
Quoting 282. Skyepony:


Southern Hemisphere this time of year.. Have to admit I'm a little impressed. Just got designated 25P. Being across the equator from 09W & 94W, do I even need to speculate what this could do for El Niño?




Actually, I am impressed. I just didn't want to write something like, "This is interesting" Because I was afraid of a barrage of:

The air is too dry.
It is going to be picked up by a trough.
Nothing forms there this time of year.
It's going to fall apart.
There have been bigger storms.

:):)
Quoting 210. CosmicEvents:

Where I am a bit west of you I had 52MPH wind gusts, straight line winds that knocked down several palm fronds and dozens of tree branches, a very strong but refreshingly cool gust front, thunder beaucoup, lightning, but no rain, not a drop....though I saw it in the near distance and on radar.
.
Very unusual for my locale and in my experience.
One might even call it.....unprecedented.
.
.
So far in June I'm standing at .23".
One more day and we'll set an all-time record.


It is not unusual for any area in Broward County this time of year to experience a Severe Thunderstorm that does not produce any rain. You just might have been on the tail end of the cell or under a dry slot with most of the precip off to your NE. I've been in lots of thunderstorms in MiamiDade and Broward where I'd get the thunder, lightning,wind and hail but no rain. So it's not that unusual.
low tide has been really low of recent. e cen fl.
Western Heat Wave Enters History Books; June Record Highs Already Broken

CBS 5

"A torrid heat wave has shifted into high gear and has already broken June record highs in at least 16 cities in the Northwest, two of which appear to have tied their all-time record highs. The extreme heat is likely to last well into early July and may end up breaking records for longevity as well.

Current heat alerts issued by the National Weather Service.
According to the National Weather Service, at least six locations in Washington state appear to have topped their all-time June record highs on Sunday."

Full article below

Link
Quoting 259. HurrMichaelOrl:



These precip forecast maps flip-flop too much to be trustworthy. Just yesterday it was showing around 1.25" over the next week, now just 0.25-0.5", really? In the middle of the rainy season, we should be getting at least 1.5" per week just to maintain the average.


GFS on the other hand is showing several inches of rain across FL next week.

WPC has really become a joke of precip forecasting if you ask me.

06Z GFS thru day 10.
O the irony, it do burn Hot on a Tuesday, eh?
Quoting 288. Grothar:



Actually, I am impressed. I just didn't want to write something like, "This is interesting" Because I was afraid of a barrage of:

The air is too dry.
It is going to be picked up by a trough.
Nothing forms there this time of year.
It's going to fall apart.
There have been bigger storms.

:):)


U fergot "Super Duper" Los L Nino.
Expect a rapid rise in SST's across Nino 3.4 over the next few weeks as this is one strong WWB. Also expect to see another Oceanic Kelvin Wave to materialize as a result of these strong westerly wind anomalies across the Pacific. It appears we are on our way to atleast a 2C El-Nino by September.

Has anyone notice that on the Wunderground 10 weather day forecasts, the daily summary max temperature does not match the max temperature on the hour by hour data? I was looking at the weekend forecast for Charlotte, NC and noticed that it is fairly consistent that the summary max temperature is 2F higher than the hourly max over the next 10 days. I initially thought that the hourly forecast was missing the peak which was between 2 data points, but that isn't it. There was one day with a 5 hrs in which the temp went 84, 85, 85, 85, 84, but the daily max was 87, which doesn't look right. Then I thought they must be using the 'feels like' max but not saying so, but on that day the 'feels like' max was 89. Any thoughts to break up the discussions on El Ni~nos and AGW?

Oh, and yes I know my username suggests I live in Oviedo, FL, but I moved and didn't get a new one.
This is through July 6 (five days after my birthday of July 1.)

Quoting 298. Grothar:

This is through July 6 (five days after my birthday of July 1.)



Me too!
up over 1.5C already and the CDAS actually mates the TAO. The TAO is even showing 2C anomalies surfacing across parts of Nino 3.4.




TAO
CFSv2 is in the 2.6C to 3.5C range with not much spread anymore.

west pac clicked on similiar to 95 in the atlantic hopefully they are all fish
Quoting 302. Grothar:




Looks like the western Pacific has a bit of mojo going on!
Quoting 283. Barefootontherocks:

Just to be clear of here...
Quoting the blog header: "According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the 113°F measured in Walla Walla, Washington beat that state's previous June record of 112°F, set at John Day Dam on June 18, 1961."
Precedented.
Fifty-four years ago, 112 set the precedent for 113 - - - that is

IF you consider valid a comparison to a "state's previous June record" where one temperature happened at Walla Walla and one at John Day Dam.

IF you accept the idea of looking at a state's "June record" as valid when the temperature happens anywhere in any microclimate in a state like WA where weather and geography is as varied as a crazy quilt. The gorge and Walla Walla have their own microclimates - but that's a whole 'nother story called "Let's compare snowfall in a record storm at Thompson Pass (AK) with some nearby stations at Tazlina Lake and oh, even Cordova, on the same day." One place, a mountain range. One, a windblown flatland. The third, a coastal town.
.
Comparable - the old record and the new? Maybe not. But if that's the way it's done, and it is acceptable not to look at details, so be it. Must be "the devil is in the details." lpl
...

The devil made me do it.
~Flip Wilson
Perhaps a dictionary definiton will help you understand:
un-prec-e-dent-ed: (un-PRESS-uh-DENT-uhd) adjective 1 : Having no previous example or precedent; never having happened before; unparalleled. a. the greatest in size, amount, degree, etc. that has ever been known.
So, if one location in a particular region (say, Washington state) experiences an event (say, a highher temperature than has ever been recorded before in that region) in a particular time frame (say, a month), it's correct to use the term "unprecedented". Of course, nonsense-babblers will attempt to deny by explaining that higher temperatures may have been experienced before the arrival of people or the invention of thermometers, but that's just silliness; when speaking of records, educated and honest people understand that to mean "that which was measured and recorded by humans using the best technology available at the time".
If you believe the GFS well there are suggestions with this model that are pointing to a Tropical potential either in the East Gulf or off the East Coast or this low could be over land. Either way a trough split scenario maybe in the cards come mid July which could yield a 3rd system forming as a result of a upper trough.



Quoting 283. Barefootontherocks:

Just to be clear of here...
Quoting the blog header: "According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the 113F measured in Walla Walla, Washington beat that state's previous June record of 112F, set at John Day Dam on June 18, 1961."
Precedented.
Fifty-four years ago, 112 set the precedent for 113 - - - that is

IF you consider valid a comparison to a "state's previous June record" where one temperature happened at Walla Walla and one at John Day Dam.

IF you accept the idea of looking at a state's "June record" as valid when the temperature happens anywhere in any microclimate in a state like WA where weather and geography is as varied as a crazy quilt. The gorge and Walla Walla have their own microclimates - but that's a whole 'nother story called "Let's compare snowfall in a record storm at Thompson Pass (AK) with some nearby stations at Tazlina Lake and oh, even Cordova, on the same day." One place, a mountain range. One, a windblown flatland. The third, a coastal town.
.
Comparable - the old record and the new? Maybe not. But if that's the way it's done, and it is acceptable not to look at details, so be it. Must be "the devil is in the details." lpl
...

The devil made me do it.
~Flip Wilson


Well when you put it that way, no. A state's monthly record high does not care where it was recorded, or if it was recorded in different locations. Both Walla Walla and John Day Dam exist within the state. 113, is unprecedented in the state for the month of June. 112 was the old precedent. These are simple definitions you continue to try and twist to deny data. It's quite tiresome.

To use your analogy, if we were analyzing record snowfall in AK, then every incident of snowfall in the state would be valid to use, regardless of microclimate.

Your argument purposely changed what was being measured, in this case highest temperature in the month of June within the boarders of the great state of Washington. If you change what you are measuring, of course then the words used to describe the data would change. Stop trying to be a revisionist. Accept the data or don't, but trying to change what was being measured or definitions of words to proclaim your correctness is dishonest.
Pressures really begin to lower across FL later next week also lower wind shear and the MJO progressing east could raise some eyebrows.

09 W

Quoting 304. CybrTeddy:



Looks like the western Pacific has a bit of mojo going on!


All result of just how strong this El-Nino is about to get. Over the next few months we should pull ahead of 1997 as there is another powerful WWB slated for August the last I checked.
Quoting 311. Grothar:



Ok, 119 is hot. Really, really hot. I don't care if it's a 'dry heat', or not a record, or even there's a precedent for Phoenix. It's still darn hot.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Person 1: "The number of lightning strikes in that thunderstorm over Orlando was unprecedented for Florida"
Person 2: "No it wasn't, there was one less lightning strike in 1957 in Miami and Miami and Orlando are different places."
Person 1: (Facepalm)
Quoting 301. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 is in the 2.6C to 3.5C range with not much spread anymore.




When all of that heat in the ocean is released it's going to be bad news for FL Scott.
Quoting 211. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



"Bullitt"


A blood test reveals he has a terminal illness, is due to retire in two weeks, and has to die on the job to insure that his family gets his death benefits. He has this dream of his son going to Harvard, but has to die in the line of duty for that to happen. In the next two weeks.
317. vis0

Quoting 270. rayduray2013:


Hmm, I've read that The Donald has successfully maneuvered out of every bankrupt real estate deal he's orchestrated way before his junior investors were left holding an empty bag. I completely disagree about the term "moron". That just isn't The Donald. He's way ahead of the herd. The Donald is the ultimate corporate sharkskin salesman. His limited partnerships seem designed for failure, just not his failure. Bill Maher quipped last week that Donald is so opaque that he could believe that a guy claiming to be worth $9 Billion might really be worth a net negative $300 million. I think Maher might be on to something. :)

lets just say ALLEGEDLY the D's business is to get land via his (early history) and the barter deal is construction group do him a favour and they get to use the worker they want, kapesh ALLEGEDLLY, now i gotta go do some laundering. Any complaints please foward letter to "in care of SANTA" with a Clause attached. Ho Ho Ho
Quoting 215. ColoradoBob1:

Northwest Territories in Canada:

From NASA Worldview, for the 29th of June:

Link

Lots of fires out there.

Quoting 219. ColoradoBob1:

Largest freshwater lake on Earth was reduced to desert dunes in just a few hundred years

Researchers used satellite images to map abandoned shore lines around Palaeolake Mega-Chad, and analyzed sediments to calculate the age of these shore lines, producing a lake level history spanning the last 15,000 years.

Link

Interesting article, but I got paywalled on the original paper :/
319. vis0
image host

CREDIT:: (Clown stamp w/o permission, using through the right to use images for humor/news)
http://www.gralinnaea.com/art-day-51-crafts-clown -approved-cut-rubber-stamp/
ORG TITLE::Clown approved - US Court Revives Dirty Coal & this Abroad ...Don't Call It a Lady
NOTE:: What if this note was passed around in Florida how would it look?
(This the quick version i bet a few more words would be blackened out in real (caAH-rayZEE) life)
Fighting whether "off shore" or "on share" winds, if it saves money in the long term its all good, geeesh i bet the
arguments lead to meeting upon meetings, oh lets say at breezy Country Clubs cost more.

Again i'm all for making money (as long as its not me) but do it with respect to all. In the long run you'll be wealthier inside (consciousness) & out (pockets)

See the original post as cmmnt#272 on on pg6 of drmasters #3029.
Trouble with Quote hence this manner of posting, oh BTW ran my errands super quick)


oh yeah forgot as to D Trump...if it walks like a duck ...quacks like a duck and combs over like a duck ...its a Trump.
OK DOC..why...was the florida weather blog Banned?..nothing but weather in there..whats going ON??
321. vis0

as to my Quote on 319.

To be clear the Florida VERSION is Clown Approved

Quoting 320. LargoFl:

OK DOC..why...was the florida weather blog Banned?..nothing but weather in there..whats going ON??


Dr. Masters dosen't concern himself with the blog comments...or any any action taken by the violation of the community standards.


He has other duties, thats why we have ADMIN, and mods.




Quoting 319. vis0:

(snip)


vis, this post is pure GENIUS!
FLC089-GAC039-049-065-299-301845-
/O.NEW.KJAX.SV.W.0180.150630T1813Z-150630T1845Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
SOUTHEASTERN WARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
EAST CENTRAL CLINCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
SOUTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...
CHARLTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED OVER STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HILLIARD...FOLKSTON...STEPHEN FOSTER STATE PARK...HOMELAND...ST.
GEORGE AND KINGS FERRY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&
Both GFS & Euro have a very wet signal across FL the next 2 weeks as deep trough continues to build and actually become more robust next week causing a cold front to stall across FL in 10 to 12 days.

With this El-Nino really beginning to strengthen now I suspect the SE Ridge maybe a thing in the past as the NW US Ridge becomes the more dominate feature so expect high heat and drought to really intensify the rest of this year across the Pacific NW. This pattern upcoming is what one would expect from a strong to super El-Nino going into mid to late Summer.