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Unprecedented Hurricane Tomas pounding the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:38 PM GMT on October 30, 2010

Hurricane Tomas, an unprecedented Lesser Antilles hurricane for so late in the season, is bearing down on the islands of St. Lucia and St. Vincent with Category 1 winds of 75 mph. Recent radar imagery from the Martinique radar shows that Tomas is still in the organizing stage, with an eyewall that just closed off, and a weak area of echoes on the south side, due to modest wind shear of 10 knots caused by southerly upper-level winds. The Hurricane Hunters reported top surface winds in the northern eyewall near 75 mph. St.Lucia figures to get the worst blow from Tomas, as this island will experience the strong right-front quadrant of the storm--the north eyewall. Winds on the island were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 67 mph, at 11am EDT. Winds at Barbados peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 56 mph, early this morning, and the pressure bottomed out at 994 mb. Satellite loops of Tomas show a large and well-organized Cape Verdes-type hurricane, with good upper level outflow on all sides except the south, and an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This is a very dangerous hurricane that is just beginning to get going. You can follow the progress of Tomas through the islands today with our wundermap zoomed in on St. Lucia.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the eye of Tomas moving between the islands of St, Lucia to the north and St. Vincent and the Grenadines to the south. The southern portion of the eyewall had just closed off with this image. Image credit: Meteo France.

Intensity forecast for Tomas
Now that the eyewall of Tomas has completely closed off, a period of steady and possibly rapid intensification lasting until Sunday afternoon is likely. The intensification rate may then be slowed by an increasing flow of southwesterly upper-level winds, which are expected to bring dry air and a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear to Tomas Sunday through Tuesday, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast. Shear is then expected to relent, allowing more intensification on Wednesday. Water temperatures are a record warm 29.5°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential--a measure of the total heat content of the ocean--is a very high 100 kJ/cm^2, which is very favorable for rapid intensification. I expect the Tomas will strengthen to a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday.


Figure 2. Hurricane specialists Robbie Berg (background) and Dan Brown (foreground) discuss the latest data on Tomas last night at the National Hurricane Center.

Track forecast for Tomas
The computer models have come into better agreement this morning that after Tomas reaches the central Caribbean 4 - 5 days from now, a turn to the north or northeast is likely, in response to a strong trough of low pressure expected to develop over the Eastern U.S. The exact timing of this turn to the north or northeast is difficult to predict at this time, as steering currents will be weak in the Caribbean after Tomas passes through the Lesser Antilles today and Sunday. At this time, is appears that the Dominican Republic and Haiti are most at risk from a strike by Tomas, though the storm could move as far west as Jamaica, or as far east as the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 3. Hurricane specialist Dan Brown computes Tomas' radius of tropical storm force winds using the old-fashioned paper track plot and dividers technique. Hurricane specialists at NHC commonly use a paper track plot to mark all storm center fixes and compute the current motion of the storm. A storm's current heading and speed in NHC advisories is usually a 12-hour average of the motion up until the final fix position.

Tomas, Shary, and the 2010 hurricane season in perspective
Tomas' formation ties 2010 with 1995 and 1887 for 3rd place for most number of named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season. Only 2005 (28 named storms) and 1933 (21 named storms) were busier. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851, though there were likely many missed named storms prior to the beginning of satellite coverage in the mid-1960s. The intensification of Shary and Tomas into hurricanes today brings the total number of hurricanes this season to twelve, tying 2010 with 1969 and 1887 for second place for most hurricanes in a season. The record is held by 2005 with fifteen hurricanes, and I don't think we'll beat that record this year!

The formation of Tomas so far south and east this late in the season is unprecedented in the historical record; no named storm has ever been present east of the Lesser Antilles (61.5°W) and south of 12°N latitude so late in the year. Hurricane Six of 1896 came close--it was also a tropical storm south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W on October 29, but nine hours earlier in the day. That storm recurved to the north and missed the Lesser Antilles. Tomas' track through the southern Lesser Antilles so late in the year is unprecedented. There have been only two other tropical storms that formed after October 15 south of 12°N and east of 61.5°W: Hurricane Jose, which was a tropical storm in that region on October 18, 1999, and Tropical Storm Nicolas, on October 16, 2003. Tomas most reminds me of a storm I flew into with the Hurricane Hunters--Hurricane Joan of 1988, which was a tropical storm on October 14 near Tomas' current location, and later strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane that hit Nicaragua. According to Chenoweth (2008), Tomas is the first tropical storm to cross through the Lesser Antilles Islands south of 16°N this late in the year since 1724. In that year, a tropical storm on 12 November crossed the islands at 13.7°N 61.5°W, and later became a hurricane that affected Jamaica. There was also a hurricane on 30 October 1671 that crossed 61.5°W at 13.3°N, and did damage on Barbados.

Another unusual aspect of Tomas' formation is that we now have two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean on October 30. There has been only one hurricane season since 1851 that had had two simultaneous hurricanes later in the year--1932, when Hurricane Ten and Hurricane Eleven both existed November 7 - 10. Today is also the 5th latest date in the season that there have been two simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic. The record was set way back in 1887, when Hurricane Eighteen and Tropical Storm Nineteen were both active on December 8. There were three years that had simultaneous November named storms: 1932, 1961, and 2001.

References
Chenoweth, M. and D. Divine (2008), "A document-based 318-year record of tropical cyclones in the Lesser Antilles, 1690-2007", Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 9, doi:10.1029/2008GC002066.

Next update
I'll have more on Sunday by 3pm EDT. I'm headed home to Michigan today, after a very valuable week here at the National Hurricane Center. The experience gave me a new appreciatation for just how good the forecasters are at what they do. NHC's hurricane experts are truly world-class, and we are very fortunate to have such a talented group of hard-working forecasters keeping us informed on the dangers we face from Atlantic hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

P451: Thank you for crystallizing the moral dilemma many may be struggling with (comment 1458).
Learned much from your #1474 comment. Thanks so much!
1502. scott39
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Oct. 31st. 2010
Thanks for sharing your knowledge.
Any confirmation on whether someone was on the Choc bridge when it failed?
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I thought it indicated two different agencies disagreeing.
Read about the technique here
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Read about the technique here

Ah, thanks.
1506. Grenada
Stronger gusty winds now with a smattering of thunder, very thick clouds.
1507. wxhatt
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Oct. 31st. 2010


Thanks for the update Bob.
Quoting afj3:

One's chain can only be yanked if the chainholder allows his or her chain to be yanked....
True. But u have to recognise WHEN ur chain is being yanked.... lol

BTW, which part of FL are u in? With the way things are shaping up, FL looks like it's missed the bullet, but I'm paranoid enough to imagine a scenario where Tomas shoots the gap between Haiti and Cuba, regains strength over the Eastern/Central Bahamas, then shoots off to the NW, making a direct hit over New Providence, Grand Bahama, and Port St. Lucie.... not a laughing matter, but definitely a potential nightmare for some of us.....
1509. scott39
Ike needs to sharpen up one of those daggers of death for TCs and pierce the heart of Tomas! Looks like he shot an arrow at it this morning. LOL
Tomas~Average Position Error (nm) for models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
KHRM DECREASING 29.6 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5E DECREASING 34 -1 -1 -1 -1
CMC CONSTANT 36.9 83.9 124.3 -1 -1
GFDL INCREASING 41.3 -1 -1 -1 -1
HWRF DECREASING 44.6 96.3 140 -1 -1
LBAR INCREASING 75.2 87.6 88.2 -1 -1
OFCL INCREASING 77.9 115.5 -1 -1 -1
MM5B DECREASING 94.1 144.3 140.8 -1 -1
BAMD CONSTANT 97.7 199.5 277.3 -1 -1
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Judging by recent satellite trends, Tomas is clearly weakening. Satellite estimates have now dropped to T4.0, and hopefully he continues to weaken.
He is expected to weaken to about 80 mph for about 24 hours or so and then to begin to intensify again.
Speaking of Haiti, I think this is a good time to remember that Portlight has a Christmas drive going on for support of its efforts there.

1513. scott39
Tomas is taking a good beating this morning. It wont be enough though.
1514. roleli
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He is expected to weaken to about 80 mph for about 24 hours or so and then to begin to intensify again.


Intensify and have it South of Haiti&South East of Jamaica in 4 1/2 days as a major storm before turns north. This is not pretty for Haiti and will certainly have us here in Jamaica holding our breath.

Interestingly Bermuda could be in for action again.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He is expected to weaken to about 80 mph for about 24 hours or so and then to begin to intensify again.
1) Isn't this the "Dead Zone" sometimes talked about here?

2) I'm watching to see how the intensity forecast pans out, as IMO intensity's going to be the largest single factor in track forecast verifying.
This has been one of the more active seasons for Bermuda in a while. What are they up to after Shary, 4 hits? 5?

Anyway, I gotta go. I'll check in if at all possible around 2-3 p.m.
Quoting BahaHurican:
1) Isn't this the "Dead Zone" sometimes talked about here?

2) I'm watching to see how the intensity forecast pans out, as IMO intensity's going to be the largest single factor in track forecast verifying.

It's the dead zone for waves, but is considered fertile ground for developing hurricanes.
1518. Cat5hit
Baha - Dead zone is North of PR and Hispaniola... "Hurricane Graveyard" is what it is normally referred to.

1519. scott39
Quoting BahaHurican:
1) Isn't this the "Dead Zone" sometimes talked about here?

2) I'm watching to see how the intensity forecast pans out, as IMO intensity's going to be the largest single factor in track forecast verifying.
Im concerned that Tomas is going to be one of those, that keeps us and the forecasters perplexed until close to landfall.
1520. scott39
Quoting Cat5hit:
Baha - Dead zone is North of PR and Hispaniola... "Hurricane Graveyard" is what it is normally referred to.

Actually its the Eastern Caribbean.
Good Morning. Does anyone have a link to a long radar loop from the Lesser Antilles?
1522. pottery
Trinidad weather now-
temp 75F
humidity 100%
light rain/heavy overcast
wind calm
pressure 1012 steady
1523. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Actually its the Eastern Caribbean.
sea
1524. Cat5hit
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not true, your from Toronto, so that means your an expert at shovelling snow :)


ROFLMAO...
Ah... got 5 more minutes grace time... lol

I wouldn't think of that area N of PR / DR as a dead zone... too many storms intensify in that area.

I guess I was thinking about the Twaves, where nothing that's not already an established TC will get going... but wouldn't the same factors that inhibit formation also inhibit / moderate intensification, esp. RI?
Could Tomas trayectory include Oriental Cuba?...
Photo from St. Lucia:
Choc bridge collapsed

http://twitpic.com/32m6dl

Share photos on twitter with Twitpic
lets hope tomas
turns into poof
i mean puff
the magic dragon
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Photo of
Choc bridge collapsed

http://twitpic.com/32m6dl

O_O
1530. scott39
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ah... got 5 more minutes grace time... lol

I wouldn't think of that area N of PR / DR as a dead zone... too many storms intensify in that area.

I guess I was thinking about the Twaves, where nothing that's not already an established TC will get going... but wouldn't the same factors that inhibit formation also inhibit / moderate intensification, esp. RI?
Yes, The Eastern Caribbean Sea has had a history of killing developing TCs and developed TCs. That is why there is a "grave yard" there. Tomas will go thru the Gauntlet getting beat up, and then come back before landfall.
Tomas is the worst looking 100+mph storm I've ever seen.


1532. Cat5hit
CRS that is horrible. Hopefully it is fixed quickly as I understand that is critical bridge.
...TOMAS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 63.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


FORECAST DISCUSSION:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 311444
TCDAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS HAS GENERALLY DECREASED DURING
THE LAST FEW HOURS AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES NO LONGER SHOW AN
EYE. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 80
KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE NEXT AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE
INTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS. SOME OF THE MODELS EVEN SHOW A SOUTH
OF WEST MOTION DURING THAT TIME. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO ERODE. TOMAS IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT FEELS THE
INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE LAST CYCLE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

ALTHOUGH TOMAS LIES OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AS SHOWN BY
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL...SHOW THE VORTEX
TILTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN THE
WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IN THOSE MODELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD THROUGH 48
HOURS BUT REMAINS HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DURING
THAT TIME. A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY
STRENGTHENING.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 14.0N 63.7W 80 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 65.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 14.9N 67.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 15.0N 69.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 70.6W 75 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 72.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 15.5N 73.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 73.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
What is with this turn?
1535. IKE
...TOMAS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 31
Location: 14.0°N 63.7°W
Max sustained: 90 mph
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 986 mb
1536. scott39
I think if Tomas weakens enough and goes more WSW on Tuesday for awhile missing the trough, It might---Just might head towards CA/Yucatan. Which they also do not need it.
1537. IKE
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
What is with this turn?


Strong trough is going to kick this system north.
removed
1539. roleli
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

O_O


Christopher from St. Lucia had mentioned this bridge Storm Carib St Lucia Reports
"only bridge over the Choc river is being undercut by the river."

"Without that vital bridge, traffic between the north and south will have to go several miles inland and wind along a narrow and hilly secondary road.... Oh Joy!!! :-("
That really sucks for Haiti. They've been through a lot this year. They defiantly don't need a major hurricane.
1541. JRRP
Quoting IKE:


Strong trough is going to kick this system north.

I know that, but the trough looks like it's still chugging eastward.
1543. scott39
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
What is with this turn?
Is that a "gradual turn"???
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not true, your from Toronto, so that means your an expert at shovelling snow :)


yes we cut it out
in nice big chunks
and carry it
where we want
to pile it
1545. IKE
Quoting IKE:


Strong trough is going to kick this system north.


Looking at the 5 day track....aims a major at Haiti.
Of course it may--and almost certainly will--change, but for now the centerline of the cone would bring the right (powerful) side of the eyewall over not just Haiti, but directly into Port au Prince.

I don't say this often, but I am seriously hoping the current situation does not pan out.
1547. scott39
Quoting JRRP:
I also see thier not going with the WSW turn in the track.
Quoting JRRP:
my only advice to that grapic is

save as many as you can
1549. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Looking at the 5 day track....aims a major at Haiti.
They need a Shield!
1550. SLU


Choc Bridge




Vehicle on Choc Bridge after flood waters receded




Bois D'Orange Bridge


A bit of good news. The phone service at least in the area my family lives is back up. No power as yet though.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Of course it may—and almost certainly will—change, but the centerline of the current cone would bring the right (powerful) side of the eyewall directly over Port au Prince.

Yikes...
and the end of there world as they know it
1552. Grenada
Much stronger winds now and heavy rain, six dogs looking for comfort!!!
1553. Cat5hit
That new track is bad for Haiti, looks like Jacmel would get a hit. Hopefully not a Cat5hit!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and the end of there world as they know it

We can only hope that the trough doesn't begin its southward movement.
remember a hurricane can strip of land of everything including all life so that nothing remains but the dirt and the water
1556. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and the end of there world as they know it
Which is already worse than anyone of us can imagine.
1558. boyzNme
Quoting BahaHurican:
Haiti could be devastated by a TD right now...

And to our fishing Floridian...

Right now it looks like the only way FL would see effects from Tomas would be if it went far enough west to cross western Cuba and then hit the Keys... from that side. If it stays on / east of forecast track, or even goes as far W as central Cuba... it's more likely to keep heading N and NE in response 2 the trough rather than make a NW turn.

So the FL approach currently seems very much an outlier for now, though we know how much things can change...


Thanks Baha for a really good and understandable answer. I didn't ask the question, but appreciate the answer!
1559. Cat5hit
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
remember a hurricane can strip of land of everything including all life so that nothing remains but the dirt and the water


NOW I know why you live in Toronto...
Quoting scott39:
Yes, The Eastern Caribbean Sea has had a history of killing developing TCs and developed TCs. That is why there is a "grave yard" there. Tomas will go thru the Gauntlet getting beat up, and then come back before landfall.


I have just spent the last 30 minutes trying to find a location for this, so I can put it on my google maps... no luck.

Any kind of geographical information (supported) would be nice.
St. Lucia:

After the hurricane in St. Lucia on Twitpic
1562. IKE
MEMO to JFV and others on here like him: You wanted a hurricane so bad...jump on a boat and go to Haiti and see how bad you want one afterwords.

I feel sorry for those people if the track and strength verifies.
Jeeeeeeeezus. Pray for Haiti. They dont need this.
While it may appear Florida will not get hit (I fail to see why this is even a problem with people on here)

Haiti will be given a catastrophic blow if this happens


That's all that matters right now.
even the best fortune tellers have a bad day thought for sure it would be a major this afternoon. he sure aint no major hurricane
Quoting Cat5hit:


NOW I know why you live in Toronto...
why
Tomas Loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ft.html
1568. Cat5hit
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
why


When was the last time Toronto was hit by a hurricane that left nothing but dirt?
1569. SLU
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
St. Lucia:

After the hurricane in St. Lucia on Twitpic


OH MY. Where are you getting your pics from?
Quoting islander101010:
even the best fortune tellers have a bad day thought for sure it would be a major this afternoon. he sure aint no major hurricane

no
he will struggle for the daylight hours
after sunset convective cycle number four
will commence then we will be well on our way
at the moment its a wait watch see
1571. klew136
http://www.untamedskies.com/research.html

great article for hurricane graveyard
Quoting scott39:
Yes, The Eastern Caribbean Sea has had a history of killing developing TCs and developed TCs. That is why there is a "grave yard" there. Tomas will go thru the Gauntlet getting beat up, and then come back before landfall.
Yes, those winds are created by the Venezuela land mass, SWesterlies winds in the mid to lower levels they have a tendency to disrupt and even kill a slow moving system. I doubt that "Señor Tomás" will be the exception. He will weaken significantly today; tomorrow as he surpasses the monal Canal longitude, he'll make a comeback to celebrate "EL Dia de los Muertos", an important celebration in our islands.
1574. klew136
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have just spent the last 30 minutes trying to find a location for this, so I can put it on my google maps... no luck.

Any kind of geographical information (supported) would be nice.

http://www.untamedskies.com/research.html
Quoting Cat5hit:


When was the last time Toronto was hit by a hurricane that left nothing but dirt?
never i figure but that can not be said for the caribean its happen lots even columbus wrote of how he visited a village of maybe 15 000 only to return and find it stripped clean with not a soul accounted for after a great wind
I just do not understand. After it became clear that the buildings in Haiti were devastated by the earthquake, by first thoughts were "how will those people be sheltered with hurricane season less than 5 months away?" Perhaps I missed news reports, but to the best of my knowledge , none of the media covered any efforts to address this almost inevitable ending to the story, nor did any of the aid efforts.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
St. Lucia:

After the hurricane in St. Lucia on Twitpic


Cat 1 hurricanes....nothin' to worry about...riiiight!
If Tomas has been at 14N for the last 3 advisories, why is still listed as moving WNW?
Quoting klew136:

http://www.untamedskies.com/research.html


Thats what I was looking for... thank you :)
1580. klew136
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats what I was looking for... thank you :)


yw
1581. Cat5hit
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
never i figure but that can not be said for the caribean its happen lots even columbus wrote of how he visited a village of maybe 15 000 only to return and find it stripped clean with not a soul accounted for after a great wind


Pretty scary stuff. Although the fact you need a plasma cutter to get out of your house in the morning to cut through the ice can't be all the great either.
Quoting SLU:


Choc Bridge




Vehicle on Choc Bridge after flood waters receded




Bois D'Orange Bridge


A bit of good news. The phone service at least in the area my family lives is back up. No power as yet though.

That was only a Cat1. Haiti, if the forecast comes true, will experience something much worse.
Quoting SLU:


OH MY. Where are you getting your pics from?


following links from

http://search.twitter.com/

search for St. Lucia
Location of the trough. Also, what is that south of Alaska?
Quoting stormpetrol:
If Tomas has been at 14N for the last 3 advisories, why is still listed as moving WNW?

It's a 12 hour average of movement.
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
I just do not understand. After it became clear that the buildings in Haiti were devastated by the earthquake, by first thoughts were "how will those people be sheltered with hurricane season less than 5 months away?" Perhaps I missed news reports, but to the best of my knowledge , none of the media covered any efforts to address this almost inevitable ending to the story, nor did any of the aid efforts.


Not totally true, but regrettably, not that far off. Canada has put a billion into rebuilding the area, but a lot of countries that offered financial support, never actually showed up.

If (when) Haiti gets hit.. its going to be a disaster.

1587. Cat5hit
Anyone know where to put 1.5 million people living in tents on an Island?

That is the question that needs to be answered NOW.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Location of the trough. Also, what is that south of Alaska?
snow for big fish to shovel maybe a nice arctic outflow to follow
Wind shear should start to clear up in 36 hours. By 60-72 hours conditions will be more favorable than ever.
Thank you for the response Orca. Glad to hear that not everyone dropped the ball.
please lord dont let it hit hati let it bypass hati before it goes north i hope it goes north and hits me rather than Hati they dont deserve it and i do see a threat to the carolinas down the road thats my neck of the woods
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not totally true, but regrettably, not that far off. Canada has put a billion into rebuilding the area, but a lot of countries that offered financial support, never actually showed up.

If (when) Haiti gets hit.. its going to be a disaster.

and we will be there again
Tomas is likely nearing tropical storm strength. Satellite imagery along with microwave overpasses reveal that the cyclone is not vertically aligned and is tilted towards the northeast (meaning that the mid-level circulation is not directly above the surface one). The convective organization is also rather poor with the circulation at the western edge of an asymmetric CDO. The banding on the western quadrant is also rather poorly organized. This is likely due to some dry air entrainment and about 20 knots of southwesterly vertical wind shear.

1594. Fla727
Looks like a Hati landfall and a fish after that.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Tomas is likely nearing tropical storm strength. Satellite imagery along with microwave overpasses reveal that the cyclone is not vertically aligned and is tilted towards the northeast (meaning that the mid-level circulation is not directly above the surface one). The convective organization is also rather poor with the circulation at the western edge of an asymmetric CDO. The banding on the western quadrant is also rather poorly organized. This is likely due to some dry air entrainment and about 20 knots of southwesterly vertical wind shear.



tomas is now a cat 2 hurricane

http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/
Quoting Fla727:
Looks like a Hati landfall and a fish after that.


Maybe Bermuda after that. But by then it shouldn't be a hurricane.
looking at the last frame of the vis loop looks like the low level center is about to be exposed about 13.8N 64.1 W could be wrong though
Thomas has been moving due west since 5am per the NHC coordinates.
1599. SLU
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


following links from

http://search.twitter.com/

search for St. Lucia


Thanks a lot
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Maybe Bermuda after that. But by then it shouldn't be a hurricane.


to early to tell it may not even go near Hati or Bermuda so lets wait a couple of days to see
Quoting Fla727:
Looks like a Hati landfall and a fish after that.




if a storm makes land fall some where it wont be call a fish even when it gos out too sea when its done it still wont be a fish
1602. scott39
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have just spent the last 30 minutes trying to find a location for this, so I can put it on my google maps... no luck.

Any kind of geographical information (supported) would be nice.
i just saw your post. I put this in my search engine(graveyard for tropical cyclones in the Eastern Caribbean). The way I understand it is that whole East Caribbean is more hostile for many weather reasons. One thing interesting to note is that the article said its not as hostile in the latter part of the season. This maybe one of the reasons Tomas has made it.
Unfortunately, based on the models, the odds of Tomas affecting Haiti in some way are pretty high.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Tomas is likely nearing tropical storm strength. Satellite imagery along with microwave overpasses reveal that the cyclone is not vertically aligned and is tilted towards the northeast (meaning that the mid-level circulation is not directly above the surface one). The convective organization is also rather poor with the circulation at the western edge of an asymmetric CDO. The banding on
the western quadrant is also rather poorly
organized. This is likely due to some dry air
entrainment and about 20 knots of
southwesterly vertical wind shear.


img
src="http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/G
OES14152010304NS6fYx.jpg">
>I agree
If it stays weaker will the trough have less of an effect?
If it st
Weakens and I believe it will be TS by Monday. that should help Haiti.
1606. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Tomas is likely nearing tropical storm strength. Satellite imagery along with microwave overpasses reveal that the cyclone is not vertically aligned and is tilted towards the northeast (meaning that the mid-level circulation is not directly above the surface one). The convective organization is also rather poor with the circulation at the western edge of an asymmetric CDO. The banding on the western quadrant is also rather poorly organized. This is likely due to some dry air entrainment and about 20 knots of southwesterly vertical wind shear.

This is a good sign!
i dont see this becoming a major
Quoting weatherman12345:
No. The trough will basically have the same effect on him if he's a tropical storm or a category 4 major hurricane. More importantly is the location that the cyclone is at when the trough digs and erodes away at the subtropical ridge. Whatever happens, the trough will dig down, erode the subtropical ridge, induce a weakness, and make the cyclone turn poleward. The specifics are what make the forecasting complicated.
1610. JRRP
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
my only advice to that grapic is

save as many as you can

yeah
1611. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No. The trough will basically have the same effect on him if he's a tropical storm or a category 4 major hurricane. More importantly is the location that the cyclone is at when the trough digs and erodes away at the subtropical ridge. Whatever happens, the trough will dig down, erode the subtropical ridge, induce a weakness, and make the cyclone turn poleward. The specifics are what make the forecasting complicated.
How does a TC turn as fast as the NHC is showing?
anything can happen 5 days out, seen in the past how model runs and projected path change..lets hope for the best for haiti!!!
21L/H/T/C1
MARK
14.23n/63.71w


weakening flag on
rapid disp. flagged
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Tomas is likely nearing tropical storm strength. Satellite imagery along with microwave overpasses reveal that the cyclone is not vertically aligned and is tilted towards the northeast (meaning that the mid-level circulation is not directly above the surface one). The convective organization is also rather poor with the circulation at the western edge of an asymmetric CDO. The banding on the western quadrant is also rather poorly organized. This is likely due to some dry air entrainment and about 20 knots of southwesterly vertical wind shear.

Hope this also means less opportunity for major status in 4-5 days....

Quoting justalurker:
anything can happen 5 days out, seen in the past how model runs and projected path change..lets hope for the best for haiti!!!


I am really hoping this thing some how misses the ridge, and shoots the Yucatan/Cuba gap.

Or even better yet, a couple models have it stalling to the South of the track, and getting killed by the sheer later in the week.

ADT about 1 hour old.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 OCT 2010 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 13:59:39 N Lon : 63:39:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 985.3mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.1mb

Center Temp : -56.6C Cloud Region Temp : -48.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
1617. Cat5hit
Quoting scott39:
How does a TC turn as fast as the NHC is showing?


It is forecast to stall and then resume in that direction...
For the next 48 hours, Tomas will likely not intensify due to the factors mentioned in post 1593. But beyond that time-frame, mid-level relative humidity increases beyond 70%, and vertical wind shear sinks to below 10 knots. That will likely allow for the system to repair any circulatory problems and begin to undergo a more rapid phase of intensification.

Additionally, OHC will increase to 100+ kJ cm-2.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 85 83 80 74 71 69 66 67 71 77 82
V (KT) LAND 85 86 85 83 80 74 71 69 66 67 71 77 82
V (KT) LGE mod 85 86 85 83 80 74 69 68 70 75 81 89 96

SHEAR (KT) 19 18 23 25 21 22 17 15 11 10 3 9 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 8 8 6 8 -1 -5 -5 -4 -3 -1 -3 -2
SHEAR DIR 246 238 241 242 255 237 247 213 238 168 149 104 113
SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7
POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 162 162 159 158 157 157 157 159 160 161
ADJ. POT. INT. 154 158 160 160 158 153 150 147 147 146 147 146 147
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.6 -51.5 -51.5
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 7 8 7 7 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 67 68 67 75 75 77 75 75 75 77
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 12 14 17 19 20
850 MB ENV VOR 20 20 19 22 22 31 50 65 79 89 82 93 86
200 MB DIV 66 84 85 62 39 32 51 87 103 74 95 134 100
LAND (KM) 366 390 405 369 350 333 281 256 274 321 277 223 155
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.6
LONG(DEG W) 63.3 64.3 65.3 66.4 67.4 69.2 70.6 71.5 72.3 73.0 73.8 74.0 73.9
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 4 4 3 3 3
HEAT CONTENT 106 104 84 79 89 87 94 101 121 123 110 110 110
1619. scott39
Quoting Cat5hit:


It is forecast to stall and then resume in that direction...
That makes sense.
via Twitter:

terryfinisterre
I understand there is still some rain in the south of St Lucia, Vieux Fort in particular, but winds have died down. #Tomas 3 minutes ago

Previous Tweets
Soufriere is cut off. Choc & Bois d'Orange bridges are out. Bexon is underwater. Barre de l'Isle is impassible. #Tomas hit St Lucia hard. 4 minutes ago

Communication is being restored islandwide. Mobile / landline are up on much of St Lucia, but please keep voice traffic to a minimum! #Tomas 8 minutes ago
1607. Orcasystems 3:32 PM GMT on October 31, 2010
Quoting Fla727:
Looks like a Hati landfall and a fish after that.


Thats right.. whats it going to do.. kill a couple 1000 Haitians.. and since they aren't really like you.. its still basically a fish storm right?

Idiot

Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 42 Comments: 18316


couple of 1000 iam afraid it will be a couple of 100,000

and that guy is still an idiot

Quoting Cat5hit:
That new track is bad for Haiti, looks like Jacmel would get a hit. Hopefully not a Cat5hit!

Obviously Tomas can end up anywhere inside the 5-day cone--or even somewhat outside it. Having said that, however, I'll state this other obvious fact: almost any right-angle hit from a major hurricane on the south-facing coast of Hispaniola would be devastating. Wind damage would be bad enough, but the greatest destruction would likely come from surge and rain-caused flooding.

The water just offshore southern Hispaniola is very deep, and the shelf is very thin. This has the effect of making a smaller surge than would occur in an area with a shallow shelf, though with larger, more battering waves due to the dynamics of wave energy. Some coastal towns on the south side of the island, such as Jacmel, sit on relatively flat ground directly facing the ocean with no protection whatsoever; in such places, surge damage would be tremendous.

Now, the rain. One saving grace for Port au Prince would be that there is a mountain range running east west on the Tiburon Peninsula that serves to separate the capital from the Caribbean. Some peaks in this range reach well over a mile into the sky; obviously, these peaks would diminish the storm's intensity for areas north of the range. The bad news is that this diminishing would happen at the expense of the coastal towns and villages to the south; orographic uplift would force the storm to unleash super torrents of rain, which would rush unimpeded down the mostly denuded hills, resulting in horrendous flooding.

As I said before, I am seriously hoping the current cone is wrong, as it represents for the moment a nearly worst-case scenario. I don't deal much in apocalyptic predictions, but this would be bad. Very, very bad...
Quoting scott39:
How does a TC turn as fast as the NHC is showing?
The trough that digs into the Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic will erode away at the subtropical ridge to the north of Tomas. With that taking place, steering currents will basically collapse. That trough will cause a weakness in the subtropical ridge. When a weakness is caused in a high pressure system, a cyclone will get attracted to it and want to gravitate towards it. That's pretty much what will happen. The cyclone turns poleward into the weakness since steering currents are weak. That's how the poleward turn on the NHC cone of uncertainty will verify.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Location of the trough. Also, what is that south of Alaska?


That is an extremely strong, deep low pressure center which peaked around 938-940mb. One thing to note is this system underwent very strong cyclogenesis deepening more than 50mb over a 24 hour time frame making it a "Meteorological Bomb" The low has begun to occlude and the system itself is beginning to slowly decay.
as of 1145 am we are reporting light snow grains its coming big fish
Quoting Cat5hit:


It is forecast to stall and then resume in that direction...



Yes, Tropical systems tend to slow down or stall before making abrupt changes in direction.

A faster moving TC would tend to make a more gradual turn (like rounding a corner).

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
as of 1145 am we are reporting light snow grains its coming big fish


Happy Dance Happy Dance :)
Hurrican Tomas - the aftermath in St. Lucia
By Arnold Henry Autobiography · View Photos

http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=239477&id=123712035193&l=87851c32d6

Quoting AtmosphericWrath:


That is an extremely strong, deep low pressure center which peaked around 938-940mb. One thing to note is this system underwent very strong cyclogenesis deepening more than 50mb over a 24 hour time frame making it a "Meteorological Bomb" The low has occluded and the system itself is beginning to slowly decay.


I hate those... they go right over my house :(
Quoting weatherlover94:
i dont see this becoming a major


Ummm, sorry but you did just the other day and hitting FL.
Not much to add but Tomas doesn't look to good this morning. Which in hindsight is about what you would expect this time of year. I thought sw shear was a little high on the water vapor loop yesterday, but didn't want to jump into the fray.Still a very interesting storm for this time of year. Hope not to much damage was done in the islands.
1633. Cat5hit
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
as of 1145 am we are reporting light snow grains its coming big fish


Can you translate that from Canadian English to American English?
Quoting weatherlover94:
i dont see this becoming a major
Wish I could agree. Unfortunately, once Tomas gets past about 63-65W, potential for major status goes way back up... I'm still not ruling out cat three by Friday, just HOPING it won't happen....
Quoting Cat5hit:


Can you translate that from Canadian English to American English?


Its starting to SNOW in Toronto :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Happy Dance Happy Dance :)
the wife just came back from tims and said it was trying to snow i went out to check and yes there are some very fine snow grains floating in the wind so ya its offically trying to snow

don't dance to hard it could back fire
1637. Cat5hit
Wow... Snow? You'all have white Halloweens?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the wife just came back from tims and said it was trying to snow i went out to check and yes there are some very fine snow grains floating in the wind so ya its offically trying to snow

don't dance to hard it could back fire


GASP.. you have your wife trained to fetch Timmies.. I am jealous and impressed.
Quoting Cat5hit:
Wow... Snow? You'all have white Halloweens?


You'all my Butt.. its sunny here and I am going Golfing.
Quoting weatherlover94:
i dont see this becoming a major

I see Tomas going through the motions just like most storms/hurricanes, IMO it will reintensify and become at least a solid Cat3, feel sorry for the poor Haitians, even if not a direct hit , the rains alone will probably cause a significant lost of life for them, they have every right to turn their eyes to the skies and wonder if they have been a forsaken people, JMO.
1641. Cat5hit
Just the better half of Canada has white Halloweens? (j/k)
To avoid Haiti i think thomas must continue very very slowly
Quoting Orcasystems:


GASP.. you have your wife trained to fetch Timmies.. I am jealous and impressed.
she even got timbits as well to go with my three coffees
anyone think this will run into florida?
1645. Melagoo
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
she even got timbits as well to go with my three coffees

Tim Hortons!
1646. Patrap


The following is an open letter from Richard Lumarque, the extraordinary man who headed up our field team in Haiti after the earthquake in January. For those of you who followed our efforts in the aftermath of the earthquake you will remember the amazing job that Richard, his cousin Tabitha and their team did in the early days; they worked miracles and without them we would have accomplished a mere fraction of what we did.




Portlight Featured Wunderground Entry


Richard in Haiti earlier this year doing the Best of Works..






Help us Bring some Joy to those without much this season..




HAITI TOYS FOR CHRISTMAS DREAM



Dear Paul,


I want to start by thanking you for the interest and sincere caring your organization has shown to the underprivileged and poor people of the island of Haiti.


After being devastated by the earthquake of January 12th of this year where countless people lost their lives and forcing countless men, women and children to live in sub-human conditions, the survivors are now faced with an outbreak of cholera that threatens all of them. With the holidays coming, we want, once again, to come up with a way to give these people a ray of hope. We want to remind them that Portlight Strategies and the good-hearted people of America have not forgotten about them; we want them to know that we share their pain and suffering.


If you watch the news as I do, you will see that the big NGOs with millions of dollars in donations are still facing the same difficulties they have since the earthquake: supplies are locked up in warehouses and not being distributed in a timely manner to help the people that need these supplies the most. After doing some research on how we can make a difference for the Holidays, I think we can accomplish the following objective:


The Sean Penn foundation had taken a special interest in a camp located in the city of Petionville that holds about 40,000 of the homeless. He started a school for primary education which provides about 250 primary school students an opportunity for a quality education. The school was being cared for by another NGO but they too stopped providing the necessary funds to sustain the school. University Quisqueya up to now has been sustaining the operation of the school which employs 8 to 10 teachers with a salary of $400.00US for each teacher. The University is also facing difficult times as the entire University’s buildings had been destroyed by the earthquake.


There is also a school on the outskirts of the city of Jacmel called Centre Educatif de Fond Jean-Noel that provides education for about 600 students from Kindergarten through High School; the students’ ages vary from 5 to 18 years old. They even have a computer lab. That school was also supported by the efforts of the University Quisqueya and again, the funding has dried up. Soon, these 800 students will be without any opportunity for organized education unless we do something. These children are in desperate need of our help.


My dream is to be able to raise enough funds to pay for the salary of about 12 to 15 teachers for the next year. $5,000.00US a month for 12 months = $60,000.00US. In addition to the salaries for the staff, they need all kinds of school supplies; backpacks, pens, pencils, notepads and even lunch boxes. My further hope is to raise enough to buy some simple Christmas presents for about 800 students to bring a small ray of hope to these children whose lives have been forever changed by this tragedy.


Also, Haiti has been without electricity for about a month now. They need good quality flashlights, batteries and lanterns to sustain them. The kids are so desperate for a decent education that they are willing to learn with a lamp.


In the face of this devastation, we can make a difference. The key to the future of Haiti will be the children we educate today; these children are the future leaders of Haiti. They can lead these people to progress, democracy and a government without corruption but only if they receive the education that we in America take for granted.


I pray that we can find God’s Grace and Blessing in this endeavor and accomplish this task. We have very little time to accomplish this task but if we give of ourselves, we can do it.


Thank you for all your support, love and caring. God bless Portlight and God Bless the United States of America.

Sincerely,

Richard Lumarque
If we are to see rapid intesification of this system, what then happens to the track?
Quoting Melagoo:

Tim Hortons!


yes :)
Can someone tell me what the GFDL model has latched onto that would permit Tomas to run scoot in between Cuba and Haiti? Cause the way the run looks its, initialized with a Category 3 somewhere in between Cuba and Haiti, with the center moving through that little strait in between the two.
1650. xcool
Ok, as far as I can tell (2 references).. this is the "Hurricane Graveyard".



Since Tomas is in it.. it would be nice if he took a hint and died.

Anyone see the BAMM model showing Tomas crossing eastern Cuba and continuing northward making a landfall in the North East (New York) region.

Actually its the BAMM and BAMD models. They show Tomas near the N.E. U.S. near the end of the runs.
1654. 47n91w
Quoting Neapolitan:

Obviously Tomas can end up anywhere inside the 5-day cone--or even somewhat outside it. Having said that, however, I'll state this other obvious fact: almost any right-angle hit from a major hurricane on the south-facing coast of Hispaniola would be devastating. Wind damage would be bad enough, but the greatest destruction would likely come from surge and rain-caused flooding.

The water just offshore southern Hispaniola is very deep, and the shelf is very thin. This has the effect of making a smaller surge than would occur in an area with a shallow shelf, though with larger, more battering waves due to the dynamics of wave energy. Some coastal towns on the south side of the island, such as Jacmel, sit on relatively flat ground directly facing the ocean with no protection whatsoever; in such places, surge damage would be tremendous.

Now, the rain. One saving grace for Port au Prince would be that there is a mountain range running east west on the Tiburon Peninsula that serves to separate the capital from the Caribbean. Some peaks in this range reach well over a mile into the sky; obviously, these peaks would diminish the storm's intensity for areas north of the range. The bad news is that this diminishing would happen at the expense of the coastal towns and villages to the south; orographic uplift would force the storm to unleash super torrents of rain, which would rush unimpeded down the mostly denuded hills, resulting in horrendous flooding.

As I said before, I am seriously hoping the current cone is wrong, as it represents for the moment a nearly worst-case scenario. I don't deal much in apocalyptic predictions, but this would be bad. Very, very bad...


I agree with you 100% Neo, not everyone realizes how vulnerable Hispaniola is to landslides and floods, especially Haiti.

"In 1923, over 60% of Haiti's land was forested; by 2006, less than 2% was." (link)

Also: Haiti Earthquake, Deforestation Heighten Landslide Risk from National Geographic
1655. scott39
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, as far as I can tell (2 references).. this is the "Hurricane Graveyard".



Since Tomas is in it.. it would be nice if he took a hint and died.

Good Job. Wind shear is trying to drive stakes into his vampire heart.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Anyone see the BAMM model showing Tomas crossing eastern Cuba and continuing northward making a landfall in the North East (New York) region.


The BAMD takes it there
The BAMM stops just short (time limited run)
The GFNI takes it into the Bay of Fundy
Quoting Orcasystems:


The BAMD takes it there
The BAMM stops just short (time limited run)
The GFNI takes it into the Bay of Fundy


That's pretty interesting. I'm not sure how much of a storm would be left by the time it got that far north. The weather in the N.E. is far from tropical this time of year.
1658. scott39
If 20knt shear hits Tomas to the South for 48 hours, hopefully he will be a puppy before he can develope more!
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:16 PM EDT Sunday 31 October 2010
Temperature: 35.2F
Dewpoint: 31.5F
Humidity: 68 %
Wind: NNE 13 gust 19 mph

Condition: Light Snow Pellets
Pressure: 101.7 kPa
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 5 km
Air Quality Health Index: 2
Tim Horton is a little overrated for coffie and doughnuts.
1661. scott39
I read there is a weakness over Mexico, which may have some influence on Tomas going farther W.
1662. sarepa
Looks like the shear is working pretty well at Tomas.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:16 PM EDT Sunday 31 October 2010
Temperature: 35.2%uFFFDF
Dewpoint: 31.5%uFFFDF
Humidity: 68 %
Wind: NNE 13 gust 19 mph

Condition: Light Snow Pellets
Pressure: 101.7 kPa
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 5 km
Air Quality Health Index: 2


LOL. Scary, eh?

Day 5 east coast trough phasing is much scarier - the degree of phasing, from the Caribbean to northwest Quebec - is likely to produce high impact weather from Tomas to Toronto..even though model details still vary significantly, the overall pattern looks like a lock and should have HPC especially worried.
Quoting scott39:
I read there is a weakness over Mexico, which may have some influence on Tomas going farther W.

It should continue west for awhile due to the ridge.
1665. Xandtar
The rain and wind have let up in Dominica, but power is still out almost everywhere, it went out for me about 16 hours ago.

Has the trough begun to make a southern movement? On the wv loop the souther part is heading SE, but the central and north part is heading east.
Quoting Xandtar:
The rain and wind have let up in Dominica, but power is still out almost everywhere, it went out for me about 16 hours ago.


Are you OK?? Have you heard any reports from any of the other islands??
Tomas is barely moving... Link
Why aren't there any storms with U, X, Y or Z?
Quoting Pillillo:
Why aren't there any storms with U, X, Y or Z?

Hard to find names I guess. Q isn't included also, probably for the same reason.
1671. Mixed
Its A Mess Here In St Lucia, State Of Emergency Declared This Morning, No Power, No Phones Or Cell Phones, Not Much Water, Many Bridges Down, Saw Too Many Electrical Poles Down......... What A Disaster,
Quoting Pillillo:
Why aren't there any storms with U, X, Y or Z?

You forgot about Q...
like i said i will take the hurricane so Hati dont have to lets send it to the carolinas lol
Quoting Mixed:
Its A Mess Here In St Lucia, State Of Emergency Declared This Morning, No Power, No Phones Or Cell Phones, Not Much Water, Many Bridges Down, Saw Too Many Electrical Poles Down......... What A Disaster,

You are all in my prayers..I have put together an article here Link about what happened in the Windward Islands today..

I hope the US and other nations jump to action immediately to help!!!
you all in the Antillies and st lucia are in my prayers
Looks like a nice front coming through my neck of the woods next weekend!

Local Text Forecast for
Lake Worth, FL (33461)

Oct 31 Today
Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Thunder possible. High 83F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Oct 31 Tonight
Some clouds. Slight chance of a rain shower. Low 73F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph.

Nov 1 Tomorrow
Partly cloudy. High around 85F. Winds E at 10 to 20 mph.

Nov 1 Tomorrow night
Partly cloudy skies early followed by mostly cloudy skies and a few showers later at night. Low 73F. Winds E at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Nov 2 Tuesday
Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s.

Nov 3 Wednesday
Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low 70s.

Nov 4 Thursday
Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 60s.

Nov 5 Friday
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 60s.

Nov 6 Saturday
Plenty of sun. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 60s.

Nov 7 Sunday
Some sun with a few showers possible. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid 60s.
Recon is on the way out.
Link
i think Tomas will be weaker at 2 pm mabie 75-80 some were in there
Quoting weatherlover94:
i think Tomas will be weaker at 2 pm mabie 75-80 some were in there

I think they will wait till recon starts sending data, which should be soon.
I"m so glad Tomas isn't coming to Florida!
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It should continue west for awhile due to the ridge.

Link
Dat ridge nuh duun yet!
5 pm my bad
i think it may be better if if FL did had it they sure dont need this down there
In just his short life already, Tomas has gathered an ACE of 3.6325, enough to bring him up to the median #10 spot for the season, just ahead of #11 Lisa and behind #9 Richard. Even in his currently slightly weakened state, he should leapfrog ahead of both Richard and Otto by 11 this evening, and then Karl, Paula, and Alex by late tomorrow or early Tuesday. That would jumphim into fifth place for the season, behind only Igor, Earl, Danielle, and Julia. Depending, of course, on both how long he hangs around and how strong he is, Tomas' ACE should move ahead of Julia's later in the week, and moving into third place ahead of Danielle isn't out of the realm of possibility. In November. Whodathunkit?
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think it may be better if if FL did had it they sure dont need this down there


thats a terrible thing to say but i have to agree with you
1686. Cat5hit
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think it may be better if if FL did had it they sure dont need this down there


NO No no.

How about it just dissipates and doesn't do any more damage?

Orca, that can't be the hurricane graveyard, too many hurricanes have passed through it and survived. That has to the John Hope rule "box". Of course, I could be wrong...
1687. SLU
I just posted some pictures of St. Lucia on Stormcarib.com. Go check it out.

Link
1688. barbamz
Quoting SLU:
I just posted some pictures of St. Lucia on Stormcarib.com. Go check it out.

Link


This really looks severe. What a mess!
Nevertheless thanks for posting and all the best for your family.
Quoting SLU:
I just posted some pictures of St. Lucia on Stormcarib.com. Go check it out.

Link
Great job, my prayers are for the speedy recovery of your island nation!!!!
1690. scott39
Tomas will weaken from 60mph to 80mph over the next 48 hours. Then expect rapid developement after this time to a Cat 3 possibly to a low end Cat 4. Dont let the current look fool you!
St. Lucia is more than ready to handle a situation like this, I doubt they will request help, they are a independent nation, im sure they will pride themselves on taking care of its own citizens. No reason for us to try and force aid, its demeaning to other countries.
Recon finding surface winds of 59 knots (~ 67.8 mph) at 14.450N 64.433W.
1693. scott39
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
St. Lucia is more than ready to handle a situation like this, I doubt they will request help, they are a independent nation, im sure they will pride themselves on taking care of its own citizens. No reason for us to try and force aid, its demeaning to other countries.
We dont force aid, and if the request it, we will be there.
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010


.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG JET STREAM THAT IS PUSHING 200
KT AT 250 MB RUNS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND AROUND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS JET
IS FEEDING THIS LOW WHICH WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 940 MB. IT MIGHT EVEN
DROP INTO THE UPPER 930S MB WHICH DOES NOT HAPPEN VERY OFTEN.
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL REACHED ITS LOWEST PRESSURE OVERNIGHT IT
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND REMAIN VERY LARGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010


EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW 300 NM S OF PACD IS SENDING A
STRONG TRIPLE PT TO THE ENE THAT IS CURRENTLY 600 NM S OF PAWD.
ECMWF MODEL HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB FOR 00Z FOR THE
BOMB.

1696. Xandtar
Quoting Bordonaro:

Are you OK?? Have you heard any reports from any of the other islands??


I'm fine, the roads are okay, and if the emphasis on power restoration is in the capital where independence celebrations are going on I think, that's okay. We have a generator system at my work thus I am online.

But I haven't heard anything from the more Windward Islands, sorry.
Now a reading of 64 knots surface.
1698. Cat5hit
Orca will that low bring nasty weather to you?
URNT15 KNHC 311734
AF309 0421A TOMAS HDOB 07 20101031
172430 1424N 06425W 6981 03102 0010 +096 +065 073035 039 056 006 03
172500 1423N 06424W 6971 03111 9986 +113 +060 067035 038 060 004 00
172530 1421N 06424W 6967 03112 9965 +128 +058 069030 033 061 003 00
172600 1419N 06423W 6977 03106 9958 +135 +059 076021 027 062 003 00
172630 1418N 06423W 6968 03110 9952 +137 +063 072015 019 063 004 00
172700 1416N 06422W 6971 03106 9956 +133 +070 044016 020 064 001 00
172730 1414N 06421W 6972 03105 9951 +133 +076 006016 018 061 002 03
172800 1413N 06420W 6985 03082 9936 +142 +081 338016 017 052 001 03
172830 1412N 06418W 6977 03095 9926 +148 +086 336012 015 033 002 03
172900 1413N 06416W 6967 03099 9916 +155 +090 003009 013 033 000 03
172930 1413N 06414W 6968 03096 9905 +160 +094 233000 005 038 000 00
173000 1413N 06414W 6968 03096 9921 +149 +099 178010 012 044 001 03
173030 1412N 06411W 6960 03107 9923 +144 +103 184012 015 053 000 03
173100 1411N 06410W 6978 03088 9922 +145 +105 182018 020 053 000 03
173130 1410N 06408W 6969 03098 9933 +136 +107 177021 022 053 000 03
173200 1409N 06407W 6967 03096 9940 +131 +107 178021 022 054 000 03
173230 1408N 06406W 6974 03092 9948 +125 +106 193021 022 056 001 00
173300 1407N 06405W 6971 03095 9949 +124 +105 218024 025 057 000 03
173330 1405N 06403W 6972 03095 9957 +118 +103 226031 038 059 000 03
173400 1404N 06402W 6972 03101 9989 +098 //// 234044 045 059 000 01
$$
Quoting scott39:
We dont force aid, and if the request it, we will be there.


We as a country have forced "aid" plenty of times...
said it yesterday,i'll say it again today,in some form or another tommy's going into CA ....
Quoting Tazmanian:
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKDT SAT OCT 30 2010


EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW 300 NM S OF PACD IS SENDING A
STRONG TRIPLE PT TO THE ENE THAT IS CURRENTLY 600 NM S OF PAWD.
ECMWF MODEL HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB FOR 00Z FOR THE
BOMB.

1703. IKE
14.2N and 64.2W....990.5 mb
(~ 29.25 inHg)
1704. SLU
Thanks for all the kind words
Dropsone dropped in eye pressure 994mb
1706. scott39
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


We as a country have forced "aid" plenty of times...
Well now that you have put the " " up around aid, that could mean anything. Im referring to Medical, food water and shelter help. As far as I know, a country has to give us permission for us to help.
1707. Cat5hit
Looks like Tomas has really weakened, although as stated I would not let my guard down.
1708. IKE
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 17:29:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°13'N 64°15'W (14.2167N 64.25W)
B. Center Fix Location: 314 miles (505 km) to the SSE (158°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,059m (10,036ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 47° at 48kts (From the NE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:22:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CNTR BEARING 280 AT 04 NM FROM FL CNTR
If you want to help St. Lucia, as soon as they recover, GO VISIT! The country depends on tourism these days and it's an amazing place.
1710. Cat5hit
If I read that correctly, it make Tomas a Tropical Storm.

Why does the TWO state he is still an 80KT Hurricane?
Quoting IKE:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 31st day of the month at 17:58Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 21L in 2010
Storm Name: Tomas (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 17:29:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°13'N 64°15'W (14.2167N 64.25W)
B. Center Fix Location: 314 miles (505 km) to the SSE (158°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,059m (10,036ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 64kts (~ 73.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 47° at 48kts (From the NE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (323°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:22:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SFC CNTR BEARING 280 AT 04 NM FROM FL CNTR

still a hurricane
Tomas should still be a Hurricane by 5 p.m. It's just a bit disorganized due to some southwesterly wind shear of 20 knots, sure could rip an invest, but not a Hurricane. Tomas is still expected to be a dangerous storm and folks from Puerto Rico to Western Cuba, especially the Dominican Republic/Haiti should watch this storm closely. Still expected to become a Major Hurricane in 4-5 days despite the SLIGHT weakening as the NHC noted.
580

URNT12 KNHC 311758

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL212010

A. 31/17:29:30Z

B. 14 deg 13 min N

064 deg 15 min W

C. 700 mb 3059 m

D. 64 kt

E. 291 deg 7 nm

F. 047 deg 48 kt

G. 323 deg 20 nm

H. 994 mb

I. 10 C / 3050 m

J. 16 C / 3043 m

K. 9 C / NA

L. OPEN SE - SW

M. C30

N. 12345 / 07

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF309 0421A TOMAS OB 05

MAX FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 17:22:50Z

SFC CNTR BEARING 280 AT 04 NM FROM FL CNTR

;


It will be interesting to see the next vortex message as that could help us determine its direction.
1715. roleli
Looks like Tomas is back to a Tropical Storm.. GFS on target?
1716. scott39
Quoting largeeyes:
If you want to help St. Lucia, as soon as they recover, GO VISIT! The country depends on tourism these days and it's an amazing place.
I wish!
21L/TS/T/Cx
MARK
14.13n/64.12w


weakening flag on
rapid disp. flagged
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
St. Lucia is more than ready to handle a situation like this, I doubt they will request help, they are a independent nation, im sure they will pride themselves on taking care of its own citizens. No reason for us to try and force aid, its demeaning to other countries.
I can see them requesting some help with heavy machinery to quickly repair some of the infrastructure that was damaged, such as the many bridges, but I tend to agree. They may need some help quickly procurring materials for rebuilding, but beyond that I think everyone will be pleasantly surprised how quickly they recover.
I think the center is north of the tropical points...Track may have to go right with the next advisory.
Quoting reedzone:
Tomas should still be a Hurricane by 5 p.m. It's just a bit disorganized due to some southwesterly wind shear of 20 knots, sure could rip an invest, but not a Hurricane. Tomas is still expected to be a dangerous storm and folks from Puerto Rico to Western Cuba, especially the Dominican Republic/Haiti should watch this storm closely. Still expected to become a Major Hurricane in 4-5 days despite the SLIGHT weakening as the NHC noted.
Everyone said he strengthened faster than forecast and he was also forecast to weaken before re-intensifying so I would not RIP him just yet. All this means to me is more likely further west in the short term.
1721. IKE
12Z ECMWF @ 96 hours...

i think Tomas 75mph at 5 pm
Quoting reedzone:
Tomas should still be a Hurricane by 5 p.m. It's just a bit disorganized due to some southwesterly wind shear of 20 knots, sure could rip an invest, but not a Hurricane. Tomas is still expected to be a dangerous storm and folks from Puerto Rico to Western Cuba, especially the Dominican Republic/Haiti should watch this storm closely. Still expected to become a Major Hurricane in 4-5 days despite the SLIGHT weakening as the NHC noted.


At this point, especially regarding the collapsed eyewall, tilted core, and partially exposed western circulation I wouldn't be surprised to see Tomas make it down as far as 70 mph before SHIPS forecasts shear to lessen up.

Here's a good image of the impact horizontal tilt and wind shear is having on Tomas. Note a more elongated circulation on the southern side and less a flow between the wind barbs.

Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF @ 96 hours...




hard too tell is it showing the V and W storm on there?
expect convective reformation south and west of current and previous locations as system gathers itself together
1726. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:



hard too tell is it showing the V and W storm on there?


I see Toe-maz near Jamaica. That's all I see.
1727. IKE
What an eastern USA trough at 120 hours...

Quoting IKE:


I see Toe-maz near Jamaica. That's all I see.



ok
1729. afj3
Quoting BahaHurican:
True. But u have to recognise WHEN ur chain is being yanked.... lol

BTW, which part of FL are u in? With the way things are shaping up, FL looks like it's missed the bullet, but I'm paranoid enough to imagine a scenario where Tomas shoots the gap between Haiti and Cuba, regains strength over the Eastern/Central Bahamas, then shoots off to the NW, making a direct hit over New Providence, Grand Bahama, and Port St. Lucie.... not a laughing matter, but definitely a potential nightmare for some of us.....

Hey!
I am in Coral Gables, Florida, just south of Miami. Where are you???
1594. Fla727 stated
"Looks like a Ha(i)ti landfall and a fish after that".

It appears you see this turning into a real tragedy for Haiti and then moving out to sea.

Still not certain where this will end up, but the weaker it is right now the further west the storm should go imo, possibly sparing Haiti all together, so why not pray the storm weakens... gets sheared apart, and that the storm dies, not people?

Hoping we see some weaker numbers for Tomas on next update at 2 pm EST... could Tomas weaken to minimal hurricane or even tropical storm any time soon? I am hoping he does.
Ike in that run I am seeing a low forming off of NY almost like a Perfect storm set up off of NY and what should be Tomas just about due north of Haiti, am I correct in what I am seeing?
it may be even weaker then that they are olny finding SFMR winds at 40kt or about 45mph
Quoting weatherlover94:
i think Tomas 75mph at 5 pm

I'd prefer to see some more vortex passes, a little too early to call the adv.
1735. IKE
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Ike in that run I am seeing a low forming off of NY almost like a Perfect storm set up off of NY and what should be Tomas just about due north of Haiti, am I correct in what I am seeing?


I see what's left of Tomas north of Haiti.
on this day in 1991









hey guys I say that Tomas will not make that turn North between Jamaica and Haiti it will be further West before that happen likely to be located SW of Jamaica be for it does
on this day in 1991

1739. docrod
New blog folks
i give up
1741. Seastep
Quoting Tazmanian:
it may be even weaker then that they are olny finding SFMR winds at 40kt or about 45mph


That is well away from the center. Tomas has a large wind field.

Just something I noted. 2 minutes after the vortex message, they found 990mb and 64kts.

Awaiting the next pass.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I really think Jamaica needs to begin some serious preparations.


PM meeting with disaster committees tomorrow