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Unprecedented flooding hits Australia's Queensland

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:57 PM GMT on December 29, 2010

Unprecedented flooding has hit the northeast Australian state of Queensland, thanks to a week and a half of torrential rains and the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Tasha on Christmas Day. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard stated yesterday, "Some communities are seeing flood waters higher than they've seen in decades, and for some communities flood waters have never reached these levels before [in] the time that we have been recording floods." The worst flooding occurred where Tropical Cyclone Tasha made landfall on Christmas Day. Though Tasha was a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph winds and lasted less than a day, the cyclone dumped very heavy rains of 8 - 16 inches (about 200 - 400 mm) on a region that was already waterlogged from months of heavy rains. According to the National Climatic Data Center, springtime in Australia (September - November) had precipitation 125% of normal--the wettest spring in the country since records began 111 years ago. Some sections of coastal Queensland received over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain from September through November. Rainfall in Australia in December may also set a record for rainiest December. The heavy rains are due, in part, to the moderate to strong La Niña event that has been in place since July. While the rains have eased over Queensland over the past few days, some rivers will not reach peak flood stage until Friday. Approximately 1000 people have been evacuated from the affected area so far.


Figure 1. Rainfall in Queensland, Australia for the 7-day period ending December 29, 2010. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Radar image of Tropical Cyclone Tasha as it moved inland over Queensland, Australia on Christmas Day (local time.) Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 3. River conditions in Queensland as of 8:30am local time on December 30, 2010. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Flood warnings are in effect for over twelve rivers, and the flooding has closed approximately 300 roads across Queensland, including two major highways into the capital of Brisbane. Evacuations are underway in Rockhampton, a city of 50,000 people on the coast. Damage to infrastructure in Australia has been estimated at over $1 billion by the government, and economists have estimated the Australian economy will suffer an additional $6 billion in damage over the coming months due to reduced exports, according to insurance company AIR Worldwide. Queensland is Australia's top coal-producing state, and coal mining and delivery operations are being severely hampered by the flooding. Damage to agriculture is curently estimated at $400 million, and is expected to rise.

Flooding woes hit New Zealand
Wild weather has also hit New Zealand this week. Golden Bay on the northern end of the South Island of New Zealand had its worst floods in 150 years this week, thanks to torrential rains that dropped up to 13.2 inches (337.5 mm) in just 24 hours on Monday at one mountain location.


Figure 4. Two webcam views of the Motueka River in New Zealand taken five hours apart on December 28, 2010, showing the dramatic rise in the river due to flooding rains. Image credit: Tasman District Council. Screen shots kindly sent to me by Matt Johnson.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow - That is alot of rain. Thanks for the info. Dr. Masters. I can't believe how fast the water rose in the last picture!
That is a huge amount of rain! Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Major thunderstorm here in Baytown, extending from here to southwest of Houston and heading my way. Electric power is on and off.
Not as bad as that flooding. But its been raining like crazy here today.

Statement as of 4:49 PM CST on December 29, 2010

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Orange County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... West Orange... Vidor... Orange...
Mauriceville... Bridge City..
.

* until 645 PM CST

* at 448 PM CST... showers and thunderstorms are producing locally
heavy rainfall rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour. This will result
in rapid restrictions of visibilities while driving.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall may cause flooding of land
adjacent to small creeks and bayous. Additionally... frontage roads...
Highway underpasses... farm-to-Market and other secondary roads may
flood.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
depth and speed of flood waters.

Turn around... don't drown... most flood deaths occur in automobiles.
Never drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear. Just one
foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep vehicles off the
Road. When encountering flooded roads make the smart choice... turn
around... dont drown.



There are some bad winds behind this system. Its going to be absolutely miserable in the West and Midwest.



Blizzards and high wind warnings up all over the place. Then another storm system behind that.
Like a new level of winter misery.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 PM MST WED DEC 29 2010


...STRONG WINTER STORM WILL BRING HIGH WINDS TO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...

.A POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 MPH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG EASTERN SLOPES. BLOWING DUST WILL
OCCUR CAUSING LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITIES. THUS HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

Low pressure wrapping up right over Houston/Galveston area on satellite, plus the heavy rain right under the core if you will
Very low pressure at Denver. I wonder what their lowest pressure is. Denver is outside of most storm tracks.
Geeez....just checked out radar...thats one slow moving rain event moving from Tx and La toward me in Ms.......won't see any sun for a while, especially with more coming after this one...at least no tornado watches...yet...
According to Christopher Burt's weather extremes site, the lowest pressure in Denver was 28.83" on February 9, 1960.

So it is not that far above the record. The wind field will be very strong.
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Very low pressure at Denver. I wonder what their lowest pressure is. Denver is outside of most storm tracks.
wow - its high up there but still. Lowest this month it looks like.  Whats funny is its 43 degrees now - by Friday it will be -6.




Oh wait even for the station its close to a record.
The mean pressure for the lower 48 is 1003.5 mb which is very low.

The low pressure is quite a big one.
weird.

000
WWUS45 KBOU 292308 CCA
WSWBOU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
405 PM MST WED DEC 29 2010

...SEASONS FIRST WINTER STORM TAKING AIM AT NORTHEAST COLORADO...

.A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM COMBINED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SNOW AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...BRINGING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND NORTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DROPPING INTO UTAH AND PUSH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO THEN TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE COLORADO NEW MEXICO BORDER...INCREASING THE THREAT OF
HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND STRONGER WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO.

Rain still pounding here but slowly spreading out.

Statement as of 6:22 PM CST on December 29, 2010

The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Hardin County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Thicket... Sour Lake... Silsbee...
Saratoga... Lumberton... Kountze...
southeastern Jasper County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Evadale... Buna...
Jefferson County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Sabine Pass... Port Neches... Port
Arthur... Nome... Nederland... Hamshire... Groves... Central Gardens...
Beaumont...
southwestern Newton County in southeast Texas...
this includes the city of Deweyville...
Orange County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... West Orange... Vidor... Orange...
Mauriceville... Bridge City...
southwestern Allen Parish in southwest Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... Reeves... Kinder...
southern Beauregard Parish in southwest Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... Ragley... fields... Dry Creek...
Calcasieu Parish in southwest Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... Lake Charles Regional Airport...
Westlake... Vinton... Sulphur... Starks... Moss Bluff... Lake Charles...
Iowa... Hayes... de Quincy...
northwestern Cameron Parish in southwest Louisiana...
northwestern Jefferson Davis Parish in southwest Louisiana...

* until 815 PM CST

* at 620 PM CST... one to three inches of rain has fallen
today... and showers and thunderstorms continue to produce local
rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour. This will result in
minor flooding of some roads this evening.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
depth and speed of flood waters.

Turn around... don't drown... most flood deaths occur in automobiles.
Never drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear. Just one
foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep vehicles off the
Road. When encountering flooded roads make the smart choice... turn
around... dont drown.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Low pressure wrapping up right over Houston/Galveston area on satellite, plus the heavy rain right under the core if you will

hummm - missed seeing this set-up, going to call my kid in Galveston - thx
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Good evening, all.

For the record, my avatar has been stolen and an impostor has tried to assume my identity.

The person goes by the handle of PSLFLCanesVet. Note the extra "s". Please disregard the tool, until action can be taken to remove it.

Thank you.
As the last storm crossed the gulf the pressure didn't really drop till it was almost ashore.

Lamar, Colorado (Airport)
31 °F
Humidity: 50%
Dew Point: 19 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the WSW
Pressure: 29.16 in (Falling)
Do they retire cyclones in the southern hemisphere? If so, Tasha could very well be retired as Allison was here, I'd rather take a fast moving cat2 hit than a weak slow-moving TS any day.
98S is new

Quoting Skyepony:
98S is new
Interesting
Do you guys know what this system is out by Hawaii, looks a little reminiscent to Omeka.



Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Good evening, all.

For the record, my avatar has been stolen and an impostor has tried to assume my identity.

The person goes by the handle of PSLFLCanesVet. Note the extra "s". Please disregard the tool, until action can be taken to remove it.

Thank you.


To all,

Last night on chat, this impostor was claiming to be the real PSLFLCaneVet, and telling us to report the real one. If you see this person on here, y'all know what to do.
Quoting caneswatch:


To all,

Last night on chat, this impostor was claiming to be the real PSLFLCaneVet, and telling us to report the real one. If you see this person on here, y'all know what to do.



Hello, my friend. I appreciate your input!

Quoting caneswatch:


To all,

Last night on chat, this impostor was claiming to be the real PSLFLCaneVet, and telling us to report the real one. If you see this person on here, y'all know what to do.


Hi canes...a leftover from last night:

Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Hello, my friend. I appreciate your input!



Hello and you're welcome. How's the weather down there? 32 and freezing up here in the backwoods.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
330 PM CST Wednesday Dec 29 2010


Long term...
the main upstream kicker for tonights weather is a large upper
level low pressure area which has moved into the Pacific
northwest. This low will move rapidly to the central rockies on
Thursday and then northeast to the western Great Lakes by Friday
night. A large slow moving upper level low pressure trough will
extend from the low. Embedded within this trough will be a slow
moving cold front which will act as a genesis area for numerous
showers and thunderstorms across southeast la and southern MS
Friday and Friday night. By that time there should be a good
connection of deep tropical moisture into the central Gulf states.
In addition...the forecast area will be in the distant right rear
quadrant of a large 120 knot jet located in the Southern Plains.
This upper level jet is ideally place to ensure that southeast la
and southern MS will be very near the axis of a 40 knots 850 mb
jet. This means there will be good low level convergence and upper
level divergence in place for US.

So conditions appear to have become
more favorable for a Maddox synoptic heavy rain episode to develop


new years evening. The cold front should move into the coastal waters
Saturday morning where it will become stationary through Sunday.
So the rain threat will continue through rest of the weekend. This
pretty close to what the GFS model is projecting. However...the
European model (ecmwf) model shows a much slower movement off the la and MS coast
on Saturday which would mean a continued threat of more heavy rain
for extreme southeast la and coastal MS. So the forecast Saturday
is somewhat uncertain at this point and may need to be amended if
the emcwf model turns out to be right.


NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hi canes...a leftover from last night:



ROFLMAO, that's gotta be one of the greatest videos i've seen.
Quoting Patrap:
3Ft of Sneaux in 40 secs


That is really cool. I love time-lapse videos like that.
Quoting caneswatch:


Hello and you're welcome. How's the weather down there? 32 and freezing up here in the backwoods.



49, thus far. Had frost the last 2 nights, difficult to say about tomorrow, yet.

Greetings, Geoff.
Slow tonight...How about T.V theme songs? I think Grothar is still in his iron lung.

Good evening PSL!



Nice. A moment, please. I like the direction.


13 shots by my count.
TORNADO WARNING
LAC045-099-113-300330-
/O.NEW.KLCH.TO.W.0013.101230T0250Z-101230T0330Z/


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
850 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN IBERIA PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...NEW IBERIA...AVERY ISLAND...
WEST CENTRAL ST. MARTIN PARISH IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES ST. MARTINVILLE...
EAST CENTRAL VERMILION PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...INTRACOASTAL CITY...FORKED ISLAND...ABBEVILLE...

* UNTIL 930 PM CST

* AT 845 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FORKED
ISLAND...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ESTHER...HENRY...ERATH...DELCAMBRE...JEFFERSON ISLAND...COTEAU...
CADE...ACADIANA REGIONAL AIRPORT AND LYDIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY
TIME. TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

Severe storms producing 60 plus mph winds sw of New Orleans. Also been a few tornado signatures in this line as well.
Storm Y-5 had the TVS

NEXRAD Radar
Lake Charles, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Looks like things are going to get interesting in the Baton Rouge and New Orleans metropolitan areas within the next two to three hours.
TV Show Themes huh?

Count me in:

Quoting KoritheMan:
Looks like things are going to get interesting in the Baton Rouge and New Orleans metropolitan areas within the next two to three hours.
just a little
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Patrap cool vid #33
Quoting jwh250:





Not meant to sound impertinent, but "Soap" was a great show.

Best wishes to our friends in the line of fire, tonight. Stay safe.

G'night, folks.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:





Not meant to sound impertinent, but "Soap" was a great show.

Best wishes to our friends in the line of fire, tonight. Stay safe.

G'night, folks.


Night PSL
Quoting caneswatch:


Night PSL


Thanks.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Not bad for December!
4 inches of rain in 6 hours at Houston!

Drought or not, in a big city that can't be good.
Patrap posted the N.O. office statement:

So conditions appear to have become more favorable for a Maddox synoptic heavy rain episode to develop

Here's some background and a quote.

Synoptic type heavy rain events, Maddox et al. (1979), comprised about 20 percent of the flash flood events studied by Maddox and his colleagues. Synoptic type events are most common during the spring and early summer and again in fall and early winter. In synoptic type flash floods, a strong 500-hPa trough is usually moving slowly eastward or northeastward. A weak upper-level shortwave often lifts northeastward ahead of the main trough and weakens. Most of the associated height falls shift more northeastward then eastward. Therefore, any surface low lifts northeastward and the trailing front slows or stalls as it becomes parallel to the upper flow. Fronts attending these events are usually oriented southwest to northeast, but Maddox noted a few that extended west to east.
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
4 inches of rain in 6 hours at Houston!

Drought or not, in a big city that can't be good.


From what I gather, Houston is very flat, so no. That's anything but.
Flat? Ever drive West Mount Houston Road? Actually already calmed down here for me. Chilly out now. That's the weather from Houston!
Any bad flooding there bappit?
Quoting bappit:
Flat? Ever drive West Mount Houston Road? Actually already calmed down here for me. Chilly out now. That's the weather from Houston!


I didn't say I lived in Houston, now. :P

Consider my claim anecdotal. Because it is.
Quoting caneswatch:
TV Show Themes huh?

Count me in:




Me too~ ! LoL, the first one that came to mind :)

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
western Ascension Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the cities of... Gonzales... Donaldsonville...
Assumption Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the city of Napoleonville...
Iberville Parish in southeast Louisiana...
this includes the city of Plaquemine...

* until 1130 PM CST

* at 1030 PM CST... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a line extending
from 10 miles northwest of Bayou Sorrel to 6 miles southwest of
Bayou Sorrel to 12 miles southwest of Pierre Part to 26 miles
southwest of Pierre Part... or along a line extending from 12 miles
west of Plaquemine to 16 miles southwest of Plaquemine to 10 miles
northeast of Franklin to 7 miles northeast of Burns Point... and
moving east at 20 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to White
Castle... Carville... Prairieville... Labadieville... geismer and
Paincourtville

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is a dangerous storm. If you are in its path... prepare
immediately for damaging winds... destructive hail... and deadly cloud
to ground lightning. People outside should move to a shelter...
preferably inside a strong building but away from windows.


Lat... Lon 3036 9133 3033 9130 3032 9113 3035 9096
3012 9089 3005 9096 2989 9088 2964 9107
2964 9108 2982 9110 2987 9120 2998 9126
3004 9122 3006 9136 3010 9139 3012 9147
3024 9148 3025 9152 3036 9156
time... Mot... loc 0433z 270deg 17kt 3027 9143 3009 9137
2987 9136 2967 9146
LOL West Mount Houston couldn't get flatter. I think some minor street flooding where I'm at.
Quoting bappit:
LOL West Mount Houston couldn't get flatter. I think some minor street flooding where I'm at.


I suspected sarcasm, especially since you only mentioned a specific street. Admittedly, I've been to Houston, albeit in 1998. My memory of said trip might be fuzzy, but it's not that fuzzy. I just didn't want to question one of the locals. :P
x-tra S there.....report
PSLFLCanesVet i see the stairs are still not reachin the second floor
hello hello hello the lights are on but nobodies home
just heavy rain here....moving slowwww
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hello hello hello the lights are on but nobodies home


Hey Keep. Are you referring to the impostor? ;)
Quoting PSLFLCanesVet:


Shut it WxHead or SuperYooper or whatever previously banned member you are. I'd advise you to keep your yap shut.


Just joined and know handles from a few months ago? And so angry. Threatening. You're beginning to sound like someone we all know. I smell a rat. Big fat rat.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
X has many meanings when used alone.
yep kinda like

pslflcanesvet(imposter) is about to be x'ed


warning for orleans strong squall
looks bowing
Quoting jwh250:


13 shots by my count.


Problem there, though.

From the site http://www.riflemansrifle.com/rifleman_opening_shots.htm

"...Hi Fellow Rifleman fans, I am posting my answer to the number one question I receive regarding The Rifleman and the rifle. This question and answer has been on the discussion board for a while but many have evidently not seen it.

I spoke to Arnold Laven (one of the Rifleman Producers) a while back and he told me that Rifleman fans were asking the same question 50 years ago.

Here’s the question and my answer:

How many shots were fired in the opening of the TV series the rifleman?

My Answer:

The opening scene of The Rifleman staring Chuck Connors was edited as are all T.V. shows.

The 1892 Winchester in .44/.40 caliber used on the show only holds eleven bullets. The audio track was dubbed over the video track. They are not entirely in sync. You may hear 12 or 13 shots fired in the audio portion, and you may watch him pull the lever back on the rifle a different number of times.

This is what makes it a trick question. The editors could have made it look like he fired as many shots as they like by piecing the two segments of the opening scene together as they did.

The difficulty with this question is that when the editors dubbed in the rifle sound they crammed in as many shots as they could in the given time period for the opening instead of noticing how many times Chuck Connors was pulling the lever on the rifle to fire the gun and just synchronizing the sound of the shots..."

So the number varied, apparently.

Yep...staying below me...bad stuff moving more eastward...maybe I can go to bed soon and sleep
This just in...cold and windy in Idaho!
have you ever considered it may be caused by stupidity
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1241 AM CST THU DEC 30 2010


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
BRETON SOUND OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
LAKE BORGNE OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
CHANDELEUR SOUND OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
MISSISSIPPI SOUND OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN/LAKE MAUREPAS OVER GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...
INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE...CHANDELEUR SOUND...EDEN ISLE...THE MID
POINT OF THE CAUSEWAY BRIDGE AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND...

* UNTIL 215 AM CST

* AT 1237 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER FROM MANDEVILLE TO 7 NM SOUTHEAST OF KENNER...MOVING EAST
AT 35 KNOTS.

* THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
OVER EDEN ISLE BY 100 AM CST
OVER LAKE BORGNE BY 115 AM CST
OVER CHANDELEUR SOUND AND 4 NM WEST OF MISSISSIPPI SOUND BY 215 AM
CST
pslflcanesvet do u know what time it is
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
have you ever considered it may be caused by stupidity
how big of a loser do you have to be to be a troll on a weather blog?......LOL!!
Gusts to 50mph today Keep.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
how big of a loser do you have to be to be a troll on a weather blog?......LOL!!


Industrial strength! Hey Spuds, how are ya?
hammer time is coming
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Industrial strength! Hey Spuds, how are ya?
Freakin cold.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Freakin cold.


Bogus. Snow too?
I didn't realise their was a beauty contest going on.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I didn't realise their was a beauty contest going on.


Haha, trolls in a beauty contest! Just imagine the visuals.
Quoting PSLFLCanesVet:


I see that neither one of you even show up in the "show bad" category, so evidently the community at large view you both as trolls. DAM is the banned troll formerly known as WxHead who is circumventing his ban.


No, I'm not. Sorry to disappoint you.
Quoting PSLFLCanesVet:
Then tell me who you really are, DontAnnoyMe. I know for a fact that you are a previously banned member who was part of that crew before. I'm sure WU admin will find that bit of information very interesting.


I'm DontAnnoyMe. One handle, never been banned. I'm sure WU admin will find your false accusations very interesting.
Here's somethin' related to weather!!!

It's about a major hurricane(forgot the name) that struck in 1955...

and here's Michael Jackson's rendition of "Behind the Mask". the guy who originally co-wrote the lyrics and gave them to Greg Philinggranes and Eric Clapton back in his Thriller heyday! Too bad he never released it...



"Wendy" is a really good "Association" song.
This is their greatest and one of the best love songs ever.
From a local met:

"The month of December, 2010 will likely go down as one of the coldest Decembers on record in Southwest Florida. In the Fort Myers area there were 22 morning low temperatures in the 40's and 30's. Daytime highs all month were running below average most every day." (Haley Webb)

22 sub-50 mornings in one month? Ridiculous--especially after an eight-month span that was among the area's warmest ever.
Quoting Neapolitan:
From a local met:

"The month of December, 2010 will likely go down as one of the coldest Decembers on record in Southwest Florida. In the Fort Myers area there were 22 morning low temperatures in the 40's and 30's. Daytime highs all month were running below average most every day." (Haley Webb)

22 sub-50 mornings in one month? Ridiculous--especially after an eight-month span that was among the area's warmest ever.

Yes I heard last night that Tampa had its coldest December also.I think they said avg mean was 53.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST THU DEC 30 2010


VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH AND
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE CURRENTLY EVOLVING/DEEPENING WESTERN STATES TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS NEW YEARS EVE.
AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...AS A COLD FRONT SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE/LOWER MS
VALLEY. APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND A STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELD...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL NEW
YEARS EVE.

...OZARKS/ARKLATEX TO MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY...
VIA THE ARRIVAL OF APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND A WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR...EXTENSIVE
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY AND ARKLATEX...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SEVERE /ALSO REFERENCE SWODY1 OUTLOOKS/. ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTIES OF
EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION DOES COMPLICATE THE DETAILS OF
SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WITH
NORTHWARD EXTENT REGIONALLY. HOWEVER...THE STEADY RETURN OF A
MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS...WITH 60+ F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY AND UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS TO THE
OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST/BUT SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY ESPECIALLY WHERE POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING ARE ABLE TO
OCCUR. THIS MAY YIELD MLCAPE UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE WARM SECTOR...SAVE UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MLCAPE
POTENTIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

WITH EARLY DAY TSTMS POSSIBLE BOTH WITHIN THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR
AND/OR NEAR THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...RELATIVELY
LOW-TOPPED SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WITHIN A
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER MO
VALLEY/OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/BRUNT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING.
OTHERWISE...A FULL-PERIOD RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ARE MORE PROBABLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITHIN A CORRIDOR FARTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY COINCIDENT WITH A
HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS...WHERE RELATIVELY MORE CONSEQUENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION SEEMS PROBABLE. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY LIMITED
BUOYANCY...A VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD /ACCENTUATED BY
SOUTHERLY 1 KM FLOW UP TO 45-55 KT/ WILL SUPPORT A MULTI-MODAL
POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-DISCRETE/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND QLCS
DEVELOPMENT...WITH POSSIBILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS/SOME
TORNADOES...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SOME SEVERE HAIL.

Orlando Not only had the coldest December on record but also had the coldest overnight low in 21 years Tuesday night. That low was 24! Amazing! Very hard for temps to get that low in Orlando!!! Now we are back to temps in the upper 70's to low 80's for what looks like a 8 to 10 day stretch.
123. IKE
I'll take some warmer weather now. This recent cold blast is making me want to Fly Away!

Let's hope that some of this rain can sneak into C FL later this weekend. These wx situations of stalled fronts in FL can be treaky to forecast because you tend to get big areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms that can tend to pull the moisture south so that it continues to feed off the warm moist inflow. Either way if this rain shield enters C FL their will be sharp cut off from north to south.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
All the models seem to trending toward a big storm next weekend. Euro shows a potent Gulf Low organizing while the GFS and CMC have this more toward the Northern Gulf Coast. Either a this possibility needs to be monitored as yet another monster storm appears to be looming and yes following this maybe another Arctic Blast but probably not as severe as the one we just had.

This is the one to watch below!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_216.shtml
Wow! We just had a earthquake here in central Indiana.

Magnitude 4.2 - INDIANA
2010 December 30 12:55:21 UTC

Magnitude 4.2
Date-Time

* Thursday, December 30, 2010 at 12:55:21 UTC
* Thursday, December 30, 2010 at 07:55:21 AM at epicenter

Location 40.427°N, 85.888°W
Depth 4.9 km (3.0 miles) set by location program
Region INDIANA
Distances

* 9 km (5 miles) SE (131°) from Greentown, IN
* 9 km (6 miles) NE (39°) from Windfall City, IN
* 10 km (6 miles) SSW (211°) from Swayzee, IN
* 22 km (13 miles) ESE (107°) from Kokomo, IN
* 74 km (46 miles) NNE (17°) from Indianapolis, IN
* 217 km (135 miles) SE (136°) from Chicago, IL

Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
From a local met:

"The month of December, 2010 will likely go down as one of the coldest Decembers on record in Southwest Florida. In the Fort Myers area there were 22 morning low temperatures in the 40's and 30's. Daytime highs all month were running below average most every day." (Haley Webb)

22 sub-50 mornings in one month? Ridiculous--especially after an eight-month span that was among the area's warmest ever.


Yesterday's high at Reagan Nat'l Airport in Washington, DC was 48 ... the warmest it's been since a 65 degree reading shortly after midnight on Dec. 1. It was also only the 4th day in which the mean temperature was above average. Even with this current "heat wave" we're still 5.4 degrees below average.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW 06U
9:00 PM WST December 30 2010
==========================================

At 8:00 pm WST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 15.6S 128.5E (overland), or 30 kilometres northwest of Kununurra and 45 kilometres east southeast of Wyndham at 10 minute sustained wind of 10 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone after it moves off the west Kimberley coast late Friday or early Saturday. It is not expected to cause gales on Friday but gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west.

Coastal areas of the west Kimberley between Kuri Bay and Wallal including Broome can expect a period of strong winds and heavy rain overnight from Friday into Saturday morning. Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley over the next two days as the system moves westwards. Significant stream rises with local flooding is possible in the North and West Kimberley, refer to the latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.

Tropical Cyclone Watches
========================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Wallal to Exmouth.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 16.1S 125.7E - 15 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 17.3S 122.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 19.2S 116.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.7S 110.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=====================
Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday or early Saturday into favourable sea surface temperatures. Being forecast to be of midget size, the system should develop rapidly into a tropical cyclone after spending less than 12 hours over open water.

Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the direction of the shear it is likely to experience favourable shear conditions. The system is likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Given its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong winds should extend further on the southern side increasing the chance of gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a relatively short period.

The system is forecast to intensify, possibly to category 2 intensity [50 knots 10 minute mean wind] but should encounter cooler waters in the longer term northwest of Exmouth which should constrain its development potential.
Quoting nocaneindy:
Wow! We just had a earthquake here in central Indiana.

Magnitude 4.2 - INDIANA
2010 December 30 12:55:21 UTC

Magnitude 4.2
Date-Time

* Thursday, December 30, 2010 at 12:55:21 UTC
* Thursday, December 30, 2010 at 07:55:21 AM at epicenter

Location 40.427°N, 85.888°W
Depth 4.9 km (3.0 miles) set by location program
Region INDIANA
Distances

* 9 km (5 miles) SE (131°) from Greentown, IN
* 9 km (6 miles) NE (39°) from Windfall City, IN
* 10 km (6 miles) SSW (211°) from Swayzee, IN
* 22 km (13 miles) ESE (107°) from Kokomo, IN
* 74 km (46 miles) NNE (17°) from Indianapolis, IN
* 217 km (135 miles) SE (136°) from Chicago, IL

Link


Those Midwestern quakes sure are felt over a long distance due to the underlying bedrock's ability to transfer energy so much more efficiently than a Pacific Coast quake can:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting Neapolitan:


Those Midwestern quakes sure are felt over a long distance due to the underlying bedrock's ability to transfer energy so much more efficiently than a Pacific Coast quake can:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


I saw that map and thought it was a rather large area to feel a 4.2, thanks for explaining why.
Quoting nocaneindy:


I saw that map and thought it was a rather large area to feel a 4.2, thanks for explaining why.

The same mechanism is why the New Madrid quakes--which have their 200th anniversary in just under a year--were felt as far away as South Carolina and New England...
133. DDR
4.5 on Trinidad's north coast a few days ago,very short lived though.
Quoting nocaneindy:
Wow! We just had a earthquake here in central Indiana.

Magnitude 4.2 - INDIANA
2010 December 30 12:55:21 UTC

Magnitude 4.2
Date-Time

* Thursday, December 30, 2010 at 12:55:21 UTC
* Thursday, December 30, 2010 at 07:55:21 AM at epicenter

Location 40.427°N, 85.888°W
Depth 4.9 km (3.0 miles) set by location program
Region INDIANA
Distances

* 9 km (5 miles) SE (131°) from Greentown, IN
* 9 km (6 miles) NE (39°) from Windfall City, IN
* 10 km (6 miles) SSW (211°) from Swayzee, IN
* 22 km (13 miles) ESE (107°) from Kokomo, IN
* 74 km (46 miles) NNE (17°) from Indianapolis, IN
* 217 km (135 miles) SE (136°) from Chicago, IL

Link
Is this part of the New Madrid fault?
Quoting Neapolitan:

The same mechanism is why the New Madrid quakes--which have their 200th anniversary in just under a year--were felt as far away as South Carolina and New England...


Well I knew that fault line was capable of some respectable quakes, but never would of guessed they could be that bad! When you hear of strong quakes, usually it's a coastal area it seems. Scary to know it could happen in my backyard.
Quoting kwgirl:
Is this part of the New Madrid fault?


Yes
Quoting Neapolitan:


Those Midwestern quakes sure are felt over a long distance due to the underlying bedrock's ability to transfer energy so much more efficiently than a Pacific Coast quake can:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Nice post man. Cool map.
Rather impressive squall line for late December...
12Z GFS run is indicating Jackson,Miss will be the epicenter for tomorrows severe wx event. Could be some large tornadoes in Mississippi tomorrow especially south/central Miss. Guys get ready!!!
Quoting hydrus:
Rather impressive squall line for late December...


It's going to be a nasty day in N & S Dakota and western/northern MN. We are on the warm side with rain & even a chance of thunder tomorrow. Saturday will be another story, with frozen,ponded water and below 0 windchills.
Could even be a moderate risk issued by Norman tomorrow with some of these wind profiles in place.
These severe wx events tend to go un-noticed this time of year or even under done so it is imperative that people heed the warnings from the NWS tomorrow in Miss, LA, AL, & TN. I know it is New Years and lots of people could be outside in this developing wx situation.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Could even be a moderate risk issued by Norman tomorrow with some of these wind profiles in place.

Morning Jeff9641, Not on much so have a happy new year. My lowest temp. this week was 17.6 with ice fog on wed morning.
I was just reading the NOAA's State of the Climate Global Analysis for November. A few select highlights:

--The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for November 2010 was the second warmest on record (2004 was the warmest.)

--For 2010 year-to-date (January–November), the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the warmest since records began in 1880.

--The November 2010 Northern Hemisphere land and ocean surface temperature was the warmest November on record.

--The November 2010 global land surface temperature was the warmest on record.

Pretty amazing. This shows the global extent of the heat anomalies; they're not confined to just one hemisphere (and note the extra warmth in southern Greenland):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Meanwhile, this chart shows some interesting--and scary--trend lines:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Quoting BtnTx:
Major thunderstorm here in Baytown, extending from here to southwest of Houston and heading my way. Electric power is on and off.


Hello everyone. I hope everyone is staying out of any bad weather.

Hi, BtnTX. What part of Baytown are you in? I am in SE Highlands. I am about 5 miles west of the San Jac Mall. We got a pretty good rain most of the day yesterday and some big thunder boomers with some nice light displays the night before.
I'm alive again
More alive than I have been in my whole entire life
I can see these people's ears perk up as I begin
To spaz with the pen, I'm a little bit sicker than most
Shiit's finna get thick again
They say the competition is stiff
But I get a hard diick from this shit, and I'll stick it in
I ain't never giving in again
Caution to the wind, complete freedom
Look at these rappers, how I treat them
So why the fuck would I join them when I beat them
They call me a freak because
I like to spit on these pussies fore I eat them
Man get these whack cocksuckers off stage
Where the fucck is Kanye when you need him?
Snatch the mic from him, biitch I'mma let you finish in a minute
Yeah that rap was tight
But I'm 'bout to spit the greatest verse of all time
So you might want to go back to the lab tonight and um
Scribble out them rhymes you were going to spit
And start over from scratch and write new ones
But I'm afraid that it ain't gonna make no difference
When I rip this stage and tear it in half tonight
It's an adrenaline rush to feel the bass thump
In the place all the way to the parking lot, fellow
Set fire to the mic and ignite the crowd
You can see the sparks from hot metal
Cold-hearted from the day I Bogarted the game
I so started to rock fellow
When I'm not even in my harshest
You can still get roasted because Marsh is not mellow
Til I'm toppling from the top I'm not going to stop
I'm standing on my Monopoly board
That means I'm on top of my game and it don't stop
Til my hip don't hop anymore
When you so good that you can't say it
Because it ain't even cool for you to sound cocky anymore
People just get sick cause you spit
These fools can't drool or dribble a drop anymore
And you can never break my stride
You never slow the momentum at any moment I'm about to blow
You'll never take my pride
Killing the flow, slow venom and the opponent
Is getting no mercy, mark my words
Ain't letting up, relentless
I smell blood, I don't give a fuuck: keep giving them hell
Where was you when I fell and needed help up?
You get no love.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Pretty amazing. This shows the global extent of the heat anomalies; they're not confined to just one hemisphere (and note the extra warmth in southern Greenland)


And that doesn't even include most of the Arctic, which was up to 10°C above average in November (NASA also handily allows you to use polar projection which shows the polar regions better):



That is also why NASA shows November as the warmest on record; 2004 had below average temperatures in the Arctic, thus NASA was cooler than NOAA.

Also, here is what the past 30 days look like, pretty similar to last December (aside from La Nina); note the anomalies in excess of +10°C (even higher than in November) over eastern Siberia and around Hudson Bay and Greenland:



Note that the difference between NASA and NOAA was very large last December, on the order of 0.6°C for the Northern Hemisphere because in NASA's dataset the Arctic warmth offset the cold over Eurasia and the U.S.:

Quoting lilElla:


It's going to be a nasty day in N & S Dakota and western/northern MN. We are on the warm side with rain & even a chance of thunder tomorrow. Saturday will be another story, with frozen,ponded water and below 0 windchills.
Where are you located?
Quoting severstorm:

Morning Jeff9641, Not on much so have a happy new year. My lowest temp. this week was 17.6 with ice fog on wed morning.


Hey buddy, I had ICE FOG as well Wednesday morning as my temp bottomed out at 25. Good news though it's 68 already and could crack 80 on Sunday for the first time since 11/3/2010. Happy Years friend!
Hydrus - we are located in south central WI.
We had about an hour of rain last night that made the roads extremely slick - lots of slide offs & roll overs. Temps were hovering at 32 and instantly froze. Today we are supposed to hit 40 with drizzle & possible rain showers.
So much for our snow........... :(
№ 148

Quoting MichaelSTL: And that doesn't even include most of the Arctic, which was up to 10[deg C] above average in November (NASA also handily allows you to use polar projection which shows the polar regions better)


DMI data for 80degN seems to disagree with this for November 2010. Granted the baselines are different-- DMI uses 1958-2002 and NASA 1951-1980--but the difference is still striking. The NASA shows over half of the area north of 80degN as being 10degC above the baseline. The DMI graph shows a peak of only about 5degC late in November; half of the month is below the baseline. Note that November is represented as Days 305-334.

From here.

Added: Just for clarification--red line is temperature data in K, green is the 1958-2002 average for the DMI data, the blue line is the freezing point of water. More details available at the link below the graph.
Looking more likely that a strong El-Nino is on the way by next Fall with El-Nino starting in July or August. Question will become is how this will impact the 2011 hurricane season? If these models pan out we may have a season similar to that of 2009. Colorado may want to revisit their prediction because if El-Nino occurs during August then Hurricane formation would be limited significantly. There has been a 4 degree rise in the C Pacific over the last couple of weeks.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I'm thinking a moderate risk maybe added tomorrow for C. Miss. Any thoughts?
Found this look in the bold!

Winter ENSO state after La Nina winters.

1949-1950[Moderate]:1950-1951 Weak La Nina
1950-1951[Weak]:1951-1952 Weak El Nino
1954-1955[Moderate]:1955-1956 Strong La Nina
1955-1956[Strong]:1956-1957 Weak La Nina
1956-1957[Weak]:1957-1958 Moderate El Nino
1962-1963[Weak]:1963-1964 Weak El Nino
1964-1965[Moderate]:1965-1966 Moderate El Nino
1967-1968[Weak]:1968-1969 Weak El Nino
1970-1971[Weak]:1971-1972 Weak La Nina
1971-1972[Weak]:1972-1973 Strong El Nino
1973-1974[Strong]:1974-1975 Weak La Nina
1974-1975[Weak]:1975-1976 Strong La Nina
1975-1976[Strong]:1976-1977 Weak El Nino
1984-1985[Weak]:1985-1986 Neutral
1988-1989[Strong]:1989-1990 Neutral
1995-1996[Weak]:1996-1997 Neutral
1998-1999[Moderate]:1999-2000 Moderate La Nina
1999-2000[Moderate]:2000-2001 Weak La Nina
2000-2001[Weak]:2001-2002 Neutral
2007-2008[Moderate]:2008-2009 Neutral

Total after Nina years
1 Strong El Nino
2 Moderate El Ninos
4 Weak El Ninos
5 Neutral
5 Weak La Ninas
1 Moderate La Nina
2 Strong La Ninas

I'll be traveling to central Louisiana tomorrow, right smack in the center of that severe weather bulls-eye. :\
Quoting kwgirl:
Is this part of the New Madrid fault?
yeah don't want things shaking up there some big one maybe even the biggest have occured on that line
Quoting lilElla:
Hydrus - we are located in south central WI.
We had about an hour of rain last night that made the roads extremely slick - lots of slide offs & roll overs. Temps were hovering at 32 and instantly froze. Today we are supposed to hit 40 with drizzle & possible rain showers.
So much for our snow........... :(
Great parks in your state. Winters are brutal. I am on the Cumberland plateau, Middle Tennessee. It can be pretty rough here too...I am hoping that there are no more tornadoes. We are #1 with tornado fatalities for the past ten years.
Quoting Neapolitan:

The same mechanism is why the New Madrid quakes--which have their 200th anniversary in just under a year--were felt as far away as South Carolina and New England...


Got to experience my first earthquake ever (along with most Maryland residents) during that 3.4 in Gaithersburg on July 16. Very interesting experience, felt and sounded like elephants running across my roof for about 8 seconds.

Although the quake in Indiana is unrelated, the New Madrid fault has always concerned me, mostly because it feels like many people have downplayed the threat to the area. Because the Midwest doesn't employ the same building standards as the more well-known earthquake areas in California and Alaska, a recurrence of the 1811-12 quakes today would cause catastrophic damage to Memphis and St. Louis.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Found this look in the bold!

Winter ENSO state after La Nina winters.


If one looks at the MEI, there was only one case where a strong La Nina turned into a El Nino the next year:



(the current event peaked at the strongest on record for August-September, and will probably go lower again after November-December; just look at the SOI, which is nearly 4 above the December 1950 record)
Quoting hydrus:
Great parks in your state. Winters are brutal. I am on the Cumberland plateau, Middle Tennessee. It can be pretty rough here too...I am hoping that there are no more tornadoes. We are #1 with tornado fatalities for the past ten years.


Let's hope 2011 has no more tornado activity for you! Is it hard to see storms coming in and they catch people by surprise?

We do have lots of great state parks. Devils Lake SP is about 10 miles N of us. We are on the eastern edge of the Driftless Area and how anyone can think that S. WI is flatlander country has obviously never been here. This is our 4th winter with enough snow to ski/snow board on our hill. And breaking trails for the donkeys, they don't like snow. Hopefully we will get more to cover up the crust once it goes below freezing again.

I have been to Cumberland Caverns, close to McMinnville. Are you in this area? It is absolutely beautiful!!!
Quoting Shonuff:


Got to experience my first earthquake ever (along with most Maryland residents) during that 3.4 in Gaithersburg on July 16. Very interesting experience, felt and sounded like elephants running across my roof for about 8 seconds.

Although the quake in Indiana is unrelated, the New Madrid fault has always concerned me, mostly because it feels like many people have downplayed the threat to the area. Because the Midwest doesn't employ the same building standards as the more well-known earthquake areas in California and Alaska, a recurrence of the 1811-12 quakes today would cause catastrophic damage to Memphis and St. Louis.


its ironic that that date is approaching again with the coming of new year been 200 years
time for the giant to tremble

December 16, 1811, 1415 UTC (8:15 a.m.); (M ~7.2%u20138.1) epicenter in northeast Arkansas
January 23, 1812, 1500 UTC (9 a.m.); (M ~7.0%u20137.8[1]) epicenter in the Missouri Bootheel.
February 7, 1812, 0945 UTC (4:45 a.m.); (M ~7.4%u20138.0[1]) epicenter near New Madrid, Missouri

3 big one's in the span of 3 months
Quoting lilElla:


Let's hope 2011 has no more tornado activity for you! Is it hard to see storms coming in and they catch people by surprise?

We do have lots of great state parks. Devils Lake SP is about 10 miles N of us. We are on the eastern edge of the Driftless Area and how anyone can think that S. WI is flatlander country has obviously never been here. This is our 4th winter with enough snow to ski/snow board on our hill. And breaking trails for the donkeys, they don't like snow. Hopefully we will get more to cover up the crust once it goes below freezing again.

I have been to Cumberland Caverns, close to McMinnville. Are you in this area? It is absolutely beautiful!!!
Lol..The Cumberland Caverns are in my back yard, and under my house! I live in Rock Island, which borders McMinnville. I have been inside the caverns many times. Bill Higgenbothem is a member of our church. His Great-Great-Great-Great Grandfather discovered the caverns in the very early 1800,s. It is said to be haunted. There are dead bodies in the caverns...I did not see any ghosts during my visits, but it is said that not all the caves have been mapped and the cave system is very large indeed.
Britain is on course to have its coldest winter in 1000 years, but the cultish are still pushing that "global warming."
The first earthquake that I felt was this one on April 18, 2008 (followed by several aftershocks over the next few days which were also felt):

Quoting Cochise111:
Britain is on course to have its coldest winter in 1000 years, but the cultish are still pushing that "global warming."


Yes, and you don't know why they call it global warming.

Just because it is cold, even record cold, in one area doesn't mean that it is cold everywhere! How many times does this have to be repeated before people get it?!
Quoting hydrus:
Lol..The Cumberland Caverns are in my back yard, and under my house! I live in Rock Island, which borders McMinnville. I have been inside the caverns many times. Bill Higgenbothem is a member of our church. His Great-Great-Great-Great Grandfather discovered the caverns in the very early 1800,s. It is said to be haunted. There are dead bodies in the caverns...I did not see any ghosts during my visits, but it is said that not all the caves have been mapped and the cave system is very large indeed.


OMG!!! Does Bill also go by the name of "Tank" and is this the person that lives at the caverns? What an interesting character he is! I was there with a Girl Scout troop - we actually slept in the cave and did some real spelunking! Pulllllllll with your fingers and pushhhhhhhh with your toes cause it was too narrow to lift your head off the ground. Paul, our guide, told some good ghost stories as we were sitting next to a 50' pit where the little boy sat with his candle! But we got him good the following morning! The caverns was the first place I saw a Kentucky Warbler :) I love the huge Oak tree on the "Trail of Tears". You are surrounded with so much history. I was even called a "Yankee"!
A little shaker (3.8) here this morning. Woke me up. Had to think whether I had the wash machine on and was it on spin cycle...nope. It was a quake. I'm getting lazy now - I don't even get out of bed anymore.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Yeas, and you don't know why they call it global warming.

Just because it is cold, even record cold, in one area doesn't mean that it is cold everywhere! How many times does this have to be repeated before people get it?!
they never will get it
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Yeas, and you don't know why they call it global warming.

Just because it is cold, even record cold, in one area doesn't mean that it is cold everywhere! How many times does this have to be repeated before people get it?!


Cold here in Florida too :P Though it is warming up the last few days, up in the 60s so far.
Quoting lilElla:


OMG!!! Does Bill also go by the name of "Tank" and is this the person that lives at the caverns? What an interesting character he is! I was there with a Girl Scout troop - we actually slept in the cave and did some real spelunking! Pulllllllll with your fingers and pushhhhhhhh with your toes cause it was too narrow to lift your head off the ground. Paul, our guide, told some good ghost stories as we were sitting next to a 50' pit where the little boy sat with his candle! But we got him good the following morning! The caverns was the first place I saw a Kentucky Warbler :) I love the huge Oak tree on the "Trail of Tears". You are surrounded with so much history. I was even called a "Yankee"!
If you are in this neck of the woods again, be sure to see Fall Creek Falls state Park and Rock Island State Park...The falls are nothing short of spectacular and are on the National Treasure list....Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Cold here in Florida too :P Though it is warming up the last few days, up in the 60s so far.


It's a balmy 73 in Fort Myers right now. We are supposed to see 78 Friday and Saturday. Now that's what I want to see. A return to a more normal winter. I lived in Wisconsin for 30 years and I never want to be that cold again! LOL
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Cold here in Florida too :P Though it is warming up the last few days, up in the 60s so far.


Florida has been pretty cold all year, in contrast to the Northeast:



This can be put down to a persistently negative NAO (for a record 15 consecutive months, including December) and El Nino.

The Gulf of Mexico is currently pretty cold too; I wonder what impact on TCHP this will have next year (if any; it did recover pretty well from last winter). Meanwhile a -NAO means the tropical Atlantic will stay very warm, probably not as warm next year though since El Nino is associated with warming:

Quoting Cochise111:
Britain is on course to have its coldest winter in 1000 years...

No, it's not. No scientists predicted such a thing, and no forecast called for it. This is another example of journalistic foolishness and anti-science wishful thinking. Read the whole sordid story here, if you wish, or go back to the original news story here (translated to English).

As has been said before, folks shouldn't believe everything they hear on Glenn Beck's program or read on WattsUpWithThat. (In fact, they'd be doing themselves a favor if they never automatically assumed to be true anything either one of them said.)
Quoting FtMyersgal:


It's a balmy 73 in Fort Myers right now. We are supposed to see 78 Friday and Saturday. Now that's what I want to see. A return to a more normal winter. I lived in Wisconsin for 30 years and I never want to be that cold again! LOL


Where abouts in Wisconsin?? The winters really aren't that bad, you just have to dress for it. I would much prefer snow & cold over humid & hot :)
Oregon is having a snowstorm

More than a foot of snow fell on the eastern Oregon town of Burns overnight, collapsing the roof of a car dealership, breaking off tree limbs, snapping power lines and closing roads. According to the Oregon State Police, emergency workers were busy through Tuesday night and this morning responding to a wide range of weather-related problems in the Harney County high-desert town of about 3,000. OSP Sergeant Brian Williams reported that the storm closed U.S. 20 -- which runs through Burns -- intermittently because of crashes, jackknifed trucks and sliding vehicles. It also resulted in the closure of Oregon 395 when a large tree toppled across the roadway. In addition, Williams said, there were numerous reports of downed power lines and blown transformers and damaged trees, as well as the collapse of a portion of the roof at the Burns Ford Dealership.
Officials say an 80-year-old woman has died and her son is missing after they were swept away by floodwaters in eastern Philippines, where landslides and flooding have prompted some 4,000 people to evacuate to safer ground. Albay province has been pummeled by nonstop rains for five days, and the provincial governor, Joey Salceda, has declared a state of calamity to free up provincial funds for disaster relief efforts. Residents of at least five towns have been evacuated. Disaster official Bernardo Rafaelito Alejandro says the woman who died was crossing a flooded area in Manito township late Wednesday when the strong current swept her away along with her 50-year-old son. Her body was found Thursday, but he remains missing.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Looking more likely that a strong El-Nino is on the way by next Fall with El-Nino starting in July or August. Question will become is how this will impact the 2011 hurricane season? If these models pan out we may have a season similar to that of 2009. Colorado may want to revisit their prediction because if El-Nino occurs during August then Hurricane formation would be limited significantly. There has been a 4 degree rise in the C Pacific over the last couple of weeks.
Um No!!!.We will have a active hurricane season,becuase I don't expect El nino to form until december 2011-spring of 2012 time range.I don't belive we'll drop out of La nina that quickly.
Looks unlikely that 2011 will be even a weak El Nino event. Looks La Nina per CFS.

Seasonal Nino 3.4


Last 6 years have almost gone in a pattern with ENSO to note. 2004 was a El Nino (though a weird one) 2005 was neutral, 2006 was El Nino, 2007 was La Nina, 2008 was neutral, 2009 was El Nino, 2010 was La Nina, 2011 looks like it will be either La Nina or cold neutral. Based on that, I could see 2012 being a moderate-weak El Nino and 2013 being similar to this year.
Quoting lilElla:


Where abouts in Wisconsin?? The winters really aren't that bad, you just have to dress for it. I would much prefer snow & cold over humid & hot :)

Grew up in Milwaukee County area. When we moved to Florida we were living in Racine. It's the snow I hate. You learn to leave with the humidity plus we get breezes here not the stagnent air we had in Wisconsin. Plus, everthing is air conditioned. Your part of Wisconsin is lovely. Go Badgers!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Um No!!!.We will have a active hurricane season,becuase I don't expect El nino to form until december 2011-spring of 2012 time range.I don't belive we'll drop out of La nina that quickly.


Also, I don't see what he means by a "4 degree SST increase in the CPAC"; here is a map of SST changes in the past month; not much change in the equatorial Pacific:



If he is referring to the warming in the central south Pacific, that has nothing to do with the equatorial SSTs that define ENSO. On another note, there has been a lot of warming across the Southern Hemisphere oceans, also seen in the anomaly map in my previous comment, but I don't see how that relates to ENSO.

Also, you need to look at more than just SSTs; the SOI in no way supports any weakening of La Nina; indeed, it is going to shatter the December record of +23 in 1950 and is the highest since, well, I don't know; 1975?, 1955? (the MEI will probably drop again):

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks unlikely that 2011 will be even a weak El Nino event. Looks La Nina per CFS.

Seasonal Nino 3.4


Last 6 years have almost gone in a pattern with ENSO to note. 2004 was a El Nino (though a weird one) 2005 was neutral, 2006 was El Nino, 2007 was La Nina, 2008 was neutral, 2009 was El Nino, 2010 was La Nina, 2011 looks like it will be either La Nina or cold neutral. Based on that, I could see 2012 being a moderate-weak El Nino and 2013 being similar to this year.
I thought I was the only one who noticed we were following that pattern.And with that being said I think the U.S will see a bad hurricane season next year.Doesn't matter about the numbers,but the destruction they cuase.2010 was a good exsample of that.Many storms,but not much destruction in the U.S which is why most people along the coast will foreget we even had a hurricane season.And they are becoming complacent each year.
What I've found also interesting is not only the 'drought' of Major Hurricanes hitting the USA (if you don't want to consider Ike a major) but the last 3 seasons have not seen a Category 5 either in the Atlantic Basin. That being said, there is some evidence to upgrade Hurricane Igor to Category 5 status during post-seasonal analysis. At one point, the ADT and SAB all indicated that Igor obtained Category 5 status on the 14th of September, and the TAFB and SAB both indicated it late on the 15th (might have gotten the dates confused did that off the top of my head) that Igor was a 160 mph Category 5. But Igor was no threat to land and it might have caused some panic when headlines read 'Igor, now a Category 5, churning westward towards the Atlantic' so 155 mph (1 mph away from Category 5) was what they sticked with.

Regarding the 2010 season, it looks likely that 3 storms will be retired in post season. Karl, Igor, and Tomas. Whats more, I think its possible that Alex and Matthew might get the boot during post season, given the amount of damage and death those storm did.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Also, I don't see what he means by a "4 degree SST increase in the CPAC"; here is a map of SST changes in the past month; not much change in the equatorial Pacific:



If he is referring to the warming in the central south Pacific, that has nothing to do with the equatorial SSTs that define ENSO. On another note, there has been a lot of warming across the Southern Hemisphere oceans, also seen in the anomaly map in my previous comment, but I don't see how that relates to ENSO.

Also, you need to look at more than just SSTs; the SOI in no way supports any weakening of La Nina; indeed, it is going to shatter the December record of +23 in 1950 and is the highest since, well, I don't know; 1975?, 1955? (the MEI will probably drop again):




Considering La Nina is as strong as it is, you wouldn't know it across the U.S. La Nina hasn't acted like it is scientifically supposed to at all
Maybe we just haven't observed enough ENSO cycles in detail to know all about their effects on the weather.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Cold here in Florida too :P Though it is warming up the last few days, up in the 60s so far.


74 here in Orlando! No 60's here my friend. Infact heading to 81 on Sunday!!
A major Gulf Low is being advertised on the EURO next week. Euro shows this as a FL/SE US system and not the NE US.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/ec850_19.png
Quoting Jedkins01:



Considering La Nina is as strong as it is, you wouldn't know it across the U.S. La Nina hasn't acted like it is scientifically supposed to at all


Well, the insane Arctic Oscillation/NAO can probably be blamed for that; the NAO has been negative for an unprecedented 15 straight months now with no real sign of ending, as if the atmospheric circulation has gotten "stuck".



Also, some of the things that have happened recently aren't actually inconsistent with La Nina; for example, all of the worst floods in California have occurred during La Nina winters - despite La Nina usually being associated with drought (the flooding in Peru has also been east of the Andes, in the Amazon region - where La Nina brings more rain, just as El Nino brought drought). Well the recent Northeast blizzard was more unusual, although Dr. Masters said it was due to a pattern change (not the NAO as he claimed - that's for sure! Maybe he meant the PNA).
191. Jax82
Not only are the models showing an El-Nino next year but are increasing the strength of it and beginning it's onset earlier than the previous runs. The CFS is an outliner. The Euro and most other models show different and it was these models which nailed this La-nina. THese other models are showing El-Nino come August and if that is the case then this could have big impacts on next years hurricane season.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Well, the insane Arctic Oscillation/NAO can probably be blamed for that; the NAO has been negative for an unprecedented 15 straight months now with no real sign of ending, as if the atmospheric circulation has gotten "stuck".



Also, some of the things that have happened recently aren't actually inconsistent with La Nina; for example, all of the worst floods in California have occurred during La Nina winters - despite La Nina usually being associated with drought (the flooding in Peru has also been east of the Andes, in the Amazon region - where La Nina brings more rain, just as El Nino brought drought). Well the recent Northeast blizzard was more unusual, although Dr. Masters said it was due to a pattern change (not the NAO as he claimed - that's for sure! Maybe he meant the PNA).


Which may mean no big landfalls next year if this pattern stays stuck. Jim Cantore commented on this in November as the season was ending.
194. Jax82
SSTs Dec 25, 2009



SSTs Dec 25, 2010



Can you see a difference?
POAMA Forecasts

June 2011
Similarly for June 2011 the average NINO3.4 index is -0.48°C and the frequency distribution is:

below −0.8°C: 16.7% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 83.3% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 0.0% (Warm)

Models predict La Niña event will persist into first quarter of 2011
Summary
As detailed in the ENSO Wrap-up, a strong La Niña event continues in the Pacific.

Dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest central Pacific Ocean (NINO3.4) sea surface temperatures are likely to remain at levels typical of a La Niña event into the first quarter of 2011, with the majority of the models indicating the event will gradually weaken over the coming months.

The NCEP model predicts NINO3.4 will cool further, with NINO3.4 peaking at its coolest temperature in March. Most models, NCEP being the only exception, predict the central Pacific will warm during the first quarter of 2011, with the NASA model predicting a faster decay of the La Niña conditions relative to the other models.




It figures someone would post the only model not showing El-Nino next year. Gotta love some of these people on here.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Not only are the models showing an El-Nino next year but are increasing the strength of it and beginning it's onset earlier than the previous runs. The CFS is an outliner. The Euro and most other models show different and it was these models which nailed this La-nina. THese other models are showing El-Nino come August and if that is the case then this could have big impacts on next years hurricane season.


Didn't think we would see an El Nino again in 2011 since we had one in 2009 and into 2010. If it pans out then our 2011 hurricane season could be shut down early. Interesting to see these developments just a few weeks after CSU released and aggressive hurricane forecast for 2011.
The NASA model isn't going to verify for December, especially for the subsurface; it has only a small area of anomalies below -2°C east of 110W, compared to actual anomalies to -5°C with -2 or more extending almost to the dateline (subsurface anomalies lead the surface; you'd see the warm water in the west Pacific progress east before the surface warms, like it shows in the forecast):





Of course, I realize that means that an El Nino could get stronger if there is more time for heat buildup (the anomalies in the west Pacific are also stronger than it forecast). Also, it was the first model to forecast a La Nina this year, or one of the first.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
The NASA model isn't going to verify for December, especially for the subsurface; it has only a small area of anomalies below -2°C east of 110W, compared to actual anomalies to -5°C with -2 or more extending almost to the dateline (subsurface anomalies lead the surface; you'd see the warm water in the west Pacific progress east before the surface warms, like it shows in the forecast):





Of course, I realize that means that an El Nino could get stronger if there is more time for heat buildup (the anomalies in the west Pacific are also stronger than it forecast). Also, it was the first model to forecast a La Nina this year, or one of the first.


So what do you think El-Nino arrives?
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Didn't think we would see an El Nino again in 2011 since we had one in 2009 and into 2010. If it pans out then our 2011 hurricane season could be shut down early. Interesting to see these developments just a few weeks after CSU released and aggressive hurricane forecast for 2011.


It seems CSU issues an aggressive forecast more often than not. I believe they did in 2009 but instead we ended up with 9 storms.

Colorado State University publishes 2009 forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Season

An early extended-range forecast for 2009 calls for somewhat above-average Atlantic basin hurricane activity, according to a new report from the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University.

The report marks the 26th year of the CSU hurricane forecasting team, which is led by Philip Klotzbach and William Gray.

The team's first extended-range forecast for the 2009 hurricane season anticipates 14 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Seven of the 14 storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those seven, three are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.

"We're forecasting an above-average season based on our early assessment of factors that influence an active hurricane season including warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the likely absence of El Nino conditions," said Klotzbach, lead author of the forecasts. "The media and general public should realize that there is a large amount of uncertainty with our early December prediction, issued seven months prior to the start of the hurricane season."


This forecast is based on an extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that uses 58 years of data. This statistical model explains a considerable amount of hurricane variability in hindcasts issued from 1950-2007. Over this time period, the three-predictor scheme correctly forecast above- or below-average seasons in 45 out of 58 years. The forecast model also successfully predicted an above-average season in 2008.


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL LOW 06U
3:00 AM WST December 31 2010
==========================================

At 2:00 am WST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 15.6S 126.8E (overland), or 390 kilometres east northeast of Derby and 140 kilometres west of Wyndham has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: Overland

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a period of strong winds and heavy rain later today and tonight as the low passes by.

While gales are not expected today, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest.

Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley today with significant stream rises with local flooding possible, refer to the latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.

Tropical Cyclone Watches
========================
A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Wallal to Exmouth.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 16.5S 123.8E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 17.6S 120.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 19.9S 114.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 21.1S 109.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=====================
The system was located over land using surface observations and Wyndham radar under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.

Dvorak intensity not assigned as system over land.

Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday into favorable sea surface temperatures. Being forecast to be of midget size, the system should develop rapidly into a tropical cyclone after spending less than 12 hours over open water.

Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the direction of the shear, it is likely to experience favourable shear conditions. The system is likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Given its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong winds should extend further on the southern side increasing the chance of gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a relatively short period.

The system is forecast to intensify, possibly to category 2 intensity [55 knots 10 minute mean wind] but should encounter cooler waters in the longer term northwest of Exmouth which should constrain its development potential.
POST# 200 really tells the story. Hell we all can forecast above average season and at some point we will be right. Just goes to show you shouldn't put all of your faith in one model considering the consensus is for El-Nino starting later next summer.
The kicker to me in post# 200 is the use of "The likely absence of El-Nino"
Complete Update





Has anyone heard from our WU friend Aussie?
Hope he is being spared from the devastating floods.
Quoting lilElla:
Has anyone heard from our WU friend Aussie?
Hope he is being spared from the devastating floods.


I just wondering the same thing. I thought of him when DOC posted this blog. I don't think he comes on anymore due to the abundence of trolls lately.
Quoting Jeff9641:


So what do you think El-Nino arrives?


El Nino won't develop unless the trade winds weaken at the right time; a few models were showing an El Nino in 2008 but that didn't happen because the trade winds didn't weaken during the normal decay period:



Note that you are looking at the western half of the Pacific; the eastern Pacific usually has opposite wind anomalies of lesser intensity. Also, we haven't even had any MJO-related westerly wind bursts this year (the short-lived westerly anomalies you see in 2008, also occurred in 2007), which can help initiate an El Nino.
2010 the year of the HEAT!

•Record warm January: Seattle

•Hottest so early in the season: Cleveland (86) and Pittsburgh (85) on April 2...Caribou, Maine (82) on April 3. Boston's earliest 90+ of the season on April 7.


•Record warm April: New York City...Hartford...Portland, Maine...Springfield & Peoria, IL.


•Globe's record warmest April (per NASA analysis; records date back to 1880)


•All-time May record highs set on May 26: Hartford (99)...Lebanon, NH (96)...Providence (96)...Worcester, Mass. (94).


•Warmest spring (Mar-May): Philadelphia and Atlantic City, N.J. (after record snowiest season!)


•Pakistan (May 26): 128 degrees. All-time record highs were set at other times during the year in over a dozen countries in Africa, the Middle East, and parts of Asia.


•Earliest occurrence of 100+ degrees: Albuquerque (Jun. 5)


•Record hot June: Philadelphia...Atlantic City, N.J...Washington, D.C...Richmond, Va...Norfolk, Va...Raleigh...Greensboro, N.C...Columbia, S.C...Charleston, S.C...St. Petersburg, Fla...Lakeland, Fla...Miami...Ft. Lauderdale...Naples, Fla...Key West, Fla.


•Globe's hottest first six months of a year on record: Read article


•Moscow, Russia's record hot summer: Parts of city reach 100 degrees for first time on record. Some parts for 5 days! Choking smog from peat fires in western Russia. Mortality rate doubled in Moscow. Head of state weather service: "Worst heatwave in 1000 years of recorded Russian history."

See photos: Moscow's smog and heat

Interactive map: World's extreme summer weather

•July's record heat: Newark, N.J. has 4 straight days of 100+ heat. Hottest since the Dust Bowl (1936) in Trenton, N.J. and Wilmington, Del. Norfolk, Va. ties all-time high (105) on consecutive days (July 24-25). Hottest month all-time in Las Vegas, Trenton, N.J., Atlantic City, and Washington, D.C.


•Tied all-time August highs: San Francisco (98; Downtown)...Santa Rosa, Calif. (106).


•Hottest summer on record: Louisville...New York City...Raleigh...Asheville, N.C...Greenville, S.C...Miami...W. Palm Beach...Ft. Lauderdale...Washington, D.C...Baltimore...Monroe, La...Little Rock...Tallahassee...Gainesville, Fla...also for 10 states (RI, NJ, DE, MD, VA, NC, TN, SC, GA, AL).


•Most 90+ days in a year: Little Rock (117 days)...Raleigh (91 days)...Washington, D.C. (67 days)...Philadelphia (55 days)


•Hottest so late in the season: Memphis (100 on Sep. 20)...Washington, D.C. (99 on Sep. 24)...Los Angeles (98 on Nov. 3)...San Diego (100 on Nov. 4)...Fresno, Calif. (90 on Nov. 5).


•Los Angeles breaks all-time high: 113 degrees Downtown on Sep. 27. Thermometer breaks after 1pm. Long Beach, Calif. also tied their all-time record (111).


•November record highs (Nov. 3): Seattle (74) and Longview, Wash. (78).


•November record in Fairbanks, Alaska: Longest duration of above-freezing temperatures (49 straight hours from Nov. 22-24).


•Warmest November globally (per NASA analysis; records date back to 1880)

I recorded 142, 90 degree days here north of Orlando in 2010. That's a lot of heat!!
NWS in Melbourne said E C FL had the 2nd or 3rd warmest SUMMER ever while recording the 2nd coldest winter ever. AMAZING!
75 here in Orlando now and it feels great!
Quoting Jeff9641:
75 here in Orlando now and it feels great!

About the same here in Palm Beach county Jeff......Didn't realize how much I have turned into a real Florida girl.I hate that cold spell
Quoting Jeff9641:


I just wondering the same thing. I thought of him when DOC posted this blog. I don't think he comes on anymore due to the abundence of trolls lately.


You are correct.
Jeff9641..I made a trip up to north Florida last month for Thanksgiving and took the scenic route (NOT) back home to Palm Beach county...We wanted to stop in Oldtown...I am now totally convinced that God sends all people to Kissimmee that can't drive.Just my opinion. There might (but I doubt it) be worse places
If an El nino does indeed form next year it will be in the december through 2012 spring time range.I don'
t think an El nino will form during next years hurricane season.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Jeff9641..I made a trip up to north Florida last month for Thanksgiving and took the scenic route (NOT) back home to Palm Beach county...We wanted to stop in Oldtown...I am now totally convinced that God sends all people to Kissimmee that can't drive.Just my opinion. There might (but I doubt it) be worse places


LOL! You are not lying It's almost like driving in San Juan.
Quoting washingtonian115:
If an El nino does indeed form next year it will be in the december through 2012 spring time range.I don'
t think an El nino will form during next years hurricane season.


If it's like that of 2004/2005 with nuetral conditions at peak season then the SE US is for major trouble this summer but if El-Nino does take shape come Aug or Sept then we should be in good shape. The next couple of months are key to see if the consensus pans out because if not then people in FL could be in for a hurtin.
It is officially snowing in hell:

WWUS85 KPSR 302132 AAA
SPSPSR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
232 PM MST THU DEC 30 2010

AZZ022-023-310200-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUCKEYE...LAKE PLEASANT...MORRISTOWN...
NEW RIVER...TONOPAH...WICKENBURG...CAREFREE...CAVE CREEK...
CHANDLER...FOUNTAIN HILLS...GILBERT...GLENDALE...MESA...PEORIA...
PHOENIX...SCOTTSDALE...SUN CITY...AND TEMPE
232 PM MST THU DEC 30 2010

...A MIX OF RAIN AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION IN THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA TODAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA...THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. MOST
OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WICKENBURG
TO CENTRAL PHOENIX...THEN EASTWARD TO APACHE JUNCTION.

THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA IS VERY COLD...HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. AS SUCH THE SNOW LEVEL HAS
LOWERED TO AROUND 2000 FEET...AND MANY OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW...INCLUDING GRAUPEL AND SMALL SOFT HAIL. FOR THE
MOST PART THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION OF FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY
SUCH AS CAVE CREEK...NEW RIVER...FOUNTAIN HILLS AND PARADISE VALLEY
MAY SEE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

MOTORISTS ACROSS NORTHERN MARICOPA COUNTY SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION
THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE MIX OF RAIN AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL
MAKE FOR SLIPPERY AND POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. DRIVE
WITH CAUTION DURING THE RUSH HOUR...ESPECIALLY ON INTERSTATE 17 NORTH
OF PHOENIX...AND ON HIGHWAY 74 EAST OF WICKENBURG.

STAY UP-TO-DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS BY LISTENING TO WEATHER RADIO
ON THE PUBLIC SERVICE BAND. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

$$

BRECKENRIDGE
218. LOL. But it snows in Detroit every winter.
Regarding ENSO. Sneaky suspicion is that Neutral conditions will fade into El Nino in Feb. 2012, might not lead to such an apocalyptic year in 2012 that we all fear (for the record, that naming list isn't very scary and we can't forget the curse of Chris either)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Regarding ENSO. Sneaky suspicion is that Neutral conditions will fade into El Nino in Feb. 2012, might not lead to such an apocalyptic year in 2012 that we all fear (for the record, that naming list isn't very scary and we can't forget the curse of Chris either)


LOL! So True!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
218. LOL. But it snows in Detroit every winter.


LOL
Quoting Jeff9641:
I recorded 142, 90 degree days here north of Orlando in 2010. That's a lot of heat!!


Year of extremes. Remember the record cold last winter? And now this December where we have had many days in the 20's here in Northern Pinellas.
Quoting Jeff9641:


If it's like that of 2004/2005 with nuetral conditions at peak season then the SE US is for major trouble this summer but if El-Nino does take shape come Aug or Sept then we should be in good shape. The next couple of months are key to see if the consensus pans out because if not then people in FL could be in for a hurtin.
I think we could fall into a weak la nina/neutral year.That's why I think the U.S is in trouble next year,but we'll see what pans out.
Brutal here in NE Florida. On average we have 18 nights at or below 32 degrees the entire year. We had 18 in December!
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Year of extremes. Remember the record cold last winter? And now this December where we have had many days in the 20's here in Northern Pinellas.


We went from record cold/record rainfall to record heat/ driest summer months on record. Very strange year in E C FL.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Regarding ENSO. Sneaky suspicion is that Neutral conditions will fade into El Nino in Feb. 2012, might not lead to such an apocalyptic year in 2012 that we all fear (for the record, that naming list isn't very scary and we can't forget the curse of Chris either)


Nah. If the apocalypse occurs, we can just blame it on El Nino. ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nah. If the apocalypse occurs, we can just blame it on El Nino. ;)
I don't think such will occur.Maybe a giant mudslide will happen destroying the ruins of the myan city.
lol.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Year of extremes. Remember the record cold last winter? And now this December where we have had many days in the 20's here in Northern Pinellas.
extreme naw ya seen nothing yet
Quoting supercoachdave:
Brutal here in NE Florida. On average we have 18 nights at or below 32 degrees the entire year. We had 18 in December!
then maybe fla winter is over

Quoting KoritheMan:


Nah. If the apocalypse occurs, we can just blame it on El Nino. ;)


Or La Nina, whichever is present:



(some people are the same way with unusual weather)
232. BtnTx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hello everyone. I hope everyone is staying out of any bad weather.

Hi, BtnTX. What part of Baytown are you in? I am in SE Highlands. I am about 5 miles west of the San Jac Mall. We got a pretty good rain most of the day yesterday and some big thunder boomers with some nice light displays the night before.
I am about a quarter mile north of San Jacinto mall off Garth Rd
Beautiful day here in so. Fla. First day out in a while without a jacket. Hope it lasts for a while!
@229 - looks that way for the next 10 days. Would be nice to see some green shoots in the lawn vs. an empty vastness of brown/gold.
correction, post 230. My IE apparently sucks.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Beautiful day here in so. Fla. First day out in a while without a jacket. Hope it lasts for a while!
Sadly after our warm up,we'll go right back to a cold pattern.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Beautiful day here in so. Fla. First day out in a while without a jacket. Hope it lasts for a while!


"Finally an avatar that fits you." excerpt from George Wilson.
Quoting Grothar:


"Finally an avatar that fits you." excerpt from George Wilson.
What about my avatar?.Should I go right back to the flowers I had,or keep this one?
An interesting weather fact:

It was warmer today in Narsarsuaq, Greenland than where I live (official NWS report) (average temperature, the high here was higher but the low was lower).

Narsarsuaq:
Mean Temperature 52 (average 20)
Max Temperature 56 (average 28, old record was 48)
Min Temperature 48 (average 12)

St. Louis:
Mean Temperature 50 (average 30)
Max Temperature 57 (average 38)
Min Temperature 43 (average 22)

Only about 23° of latitude difference (Narsarsuaq also had a record high of 51 yesterday, 6 degrees warmer than it was here)...
Quoting Grothar:


"Finally an avatar that fits you." excerpt from George Wilson.


Gale Gordon was a nicer neighbor.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Gale Gordon was a nicer neighbor.


RRRRReaaaaly now! LOL


Quoting washingtonian115:
What about my avatar?.Should I go right back to the flowers I had,or keep this one?


Now that you ask, your avatar is a bit schmaltzy.
Quoting NavarreMark:


Hope you're doing well this beautiful evening Grothar. It truly is a beautiful evening.


Nice day and evening. First night we could sit outside without looking like Nanook of the North. Hope it stays awhile. Have a nice New Year everyone. I may not be on much.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Yes, and you don't know why they call it global warming.

Just because it is cold, even record cold, in one area doesn't mean that it is cold everywhere! How many times does this have to be repeated before people get it?!


Because it isn't warming. You global warming cultists use unreliable data for "proof" the globe is warming. Look at the land-based weather stations in the US. 90% of them are biased toward the warm side. Now we have satellite data sets that aren't showing any warming unless the results are "smoothed" and complete areas are ignored completely. Garbage in equals garbage out. Even if it were warming, we still haven't reached the maximum temperatures of the past, which completely rules out man-made temperature increases. What will you be saying next year when we have certain "areas" of the globe reaching 1000 year minimums?
Quoting Grothar:


Nice day and evening. First night we could sit outside without looking like Nanook of the North. Hope it stays awhile. Have a nice New Year everyone. I may not be on much.


Big New Year's Eve. plans?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Big New Year's Eve. plans?


Yes, staying up until the ball drops and then to bed at 12:01. And you! (P.S. my breathing is much better)
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, staying up until the ball drops and then to bed at 12:01. And you! (P.S. my breathing is much better)


LOL..I will be asleep at midnight. Manager on duty at work on Saturday.
Quoting Grothar:


Now that you ask, your avatar is a bit schmaltzy.
It's to pink even for my daughter to look at(she likes blue,but doesn't mind pink either.)


enter stage left
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Or La Nina, whichever is present:



(some people are the same way with unusual weather)
If they make one for 2004/5 it should say blame it on the hurricanes.
Quoting washingtonian115:
What about my avatar?.Should I go right back to the flowers I had,or keep this one?


For some reason it looks like a plump pony from far away - didn't realize it was a girl in a dress. Its fine, sparkles would be nice but the pink doesn't bother me.



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
319 PM CST Thursday Dec 30 2010



Short term...
moderate onshore flow has pushed dewpoints into the 60s. A middle
level cap has hindered the development of showers this afternoon.
Expect mostly cloudy and mild weather tonight with lows dipping
into the 60s.


Long term...
the upper level low approaching The Four Corners area will move
towards the western Great Lakes by Saturday evening. This will
bring southeast la and southern MS into the distant right rear
quadrant of a 120 knot polar jet which will extend from the
Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Satellite infrared and water
vapor loops show another jet maximum just east of the Baja California
peninsula. This jet streak should move into the northern Gulf
Friday and Friday night. If this occurs there could be some
coupling between the two jets which would enhance upper level
divergence and lift over the bistate area. In addition...the
region will be in the right rear quadrant of a 40 plus knot 850 mb
jet. This should greatly enhance low level convergence and the
advection of rich tropical connection moisture into the region.


A slow moving cold front will become embedded in the broad upper
level trough associated with the upper level low. The front will
act as a low level focus for lines of numerous showers and
thunderstorms which develop Friday and Friday night. So will not
back down from mentioning heavy rain in the forecast. 2 to 4
inches of rainfall is possible during this time period.


In addition...model soundings show 50 to 60 knots deep layer shear
with strong veering in the lower layers of the atmosphere on
Friday. Surface based convective available potential energy should
be between 400 and 1000 units. This should be sufficient to
support thunderstorms. The thunderstorms could form into Bow
echoes which could produce an isolated tornado Friday afternoon
for areas mainly west of Interstate 55.


The cold front will move through most of the area by Saturday morning and should extend from Pascagoula to bootheville for most of Saturday. So have increased chance of rain for these areas.

Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models support this scenario.

In addition...
both models take the cold front off the coast Saturday late
Saturday evening.


Sunday and Monday should be dry as high pressure builds over the
region. A return flow...isentropic lift rain event starts to
develop on Tuesday. This unsettled pattern will persist through
Thursday.
...as God is my witness....I just saw an ad on TV selling $2 bills for $10...
Check out the crash in global temperatures over the last few days. The orange line is 2010, the blue line is 2009, and the green line is the coldest year of the past decade (1999). This is the coldest December 30th of the past 10 years.

Quoting Levi32:
Check out the crash in global temperatures over the last few days. The orange line is 2010, the blue line is 2009, and the green line is the coldest year of the past decade (1999). This is the coldest December 30th of the past 10 years.


2011 wont be as warm as this year(warmest on record). 2012 should be warm.
Quoting presslord:
...as God is my witness....I just saw an ad on TV selling $2 bills for $10...


but...but...they are soooo purty!
Global warming could cause an even bigger drop in temperature if the Global conveyor belt shuts down.
http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/whatis.html
Quoting PcolaDan:


but...but...they are soooo purty!


And you get two for one! Just pay extra shipping and handling.
Quoting presslord:
...as God is my witness....I just saw an ad on TV selling $2 bills for $10...
You weren't the one who saw that ad.I saw it a few days ago while watching syfy.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


For some reason it looks like a plump pony from far away - didn't realize it was a girl in a dress. Its fine, sparkles would be nice but the pink doesn't bother me.
Some people were complaining that the pink bothers their eyes.But I like my new avatar.It sticks out more than the old one.
Global Cooling Consensus Is Heating Up – Cooling Over The Next 1 To 3 Decades

By P Gosselin on 28. Dezember 2010

As winters get harsher and the snow piles up, more and more scientists are now warning of global cooling. Reader Matt Vooro has compiled a list (see below) of 31 prominent scientists and researchers who have words that governments ought to start heeding...
Quoting Levi32:
Check out the crash in global temperatures over the last few days. The orange line is 2010, the blue line is 2009, and the green line is the coldest year of the past decade (1999). This is the coldest December 30th of the past 10 years.



Yes, yes levi look at the other layers. Either its broketed or the Apocalypse is upon us.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


And you get two for one! Just pay extra shipping and handling.


The more you buy...the more you save!!!
Quoting jwh250:
Global Cooling Consensus Is Heating Up – Cooling Over The Next 1 To 3 Decades

By P Gosselin on 28. Dezember 2010

As winters get harsher and the snow piles up, more and more scientists are now warning of global cooling. Reader Matt Vooro has compiled a list (see below) of 31 prominent scientists and researchers who have words that governments ought to start heeding...


Again I just went two down the list and had to stop. Come one. NO REPUTABLE CLIMATE SCIENTIST IS PUSHING GLOBAL COOLING.
Quoting jwh250:
Global Cooling Consensus Is Heating Up – Cooling Over The Next 1 To 3 Decades

By P Gosselin on 28. Dezember 2010

As winters get harsher and the snow piles up, more and more scientists are now warning of global cooling. Reader Matt Vooro has compiled a list (see below) of 31 prominent scientists and researchers who have words that governments ought to start heeding...
So which one is it gonna be?.global cooling,or global warming.You decide.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So which one is it gonna be?.global cooling,or global warming.You decide.


Not one of those really say "global cooling" a few are talking about American temps and others think the PDO will transfer heat to the oceans and appear to cool.

There isnt any research to support it really, no theory or observation that stands in climate research circles that I have seen.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So which one is it gonna be?.global cooling,or global warming.You decide.

For heavens sake GLOBAL WARMING CAN CAUSE COOLING. INCLUDING AN ICE AGE ALMOST EXACTLY AS SEEN ON "THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW"!
http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/whatis.html
compare maps 2009 2010 dec 30


Quoting HurricaneKatrina:

For heavens sake GLOBAL WARMING CAN CAUSE COOLING. INCLUDING AN ICE AGE ALMOST EXACTLY AS SEEN ON "THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW"!
http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/whatis.html


Say what? If that's the case and you are a Warm-Onger then you should welcome all the greenhouse gases to help cool the Earth off in the long run like setting a fire line to contain a wildfire.
Quoting jwh250:


Say what? If that's the case and you are a Warm-Onger then you should welcome all the greenhouse gases to help cool the Earth off in the long run like setting a fire line to contain a wildfire.
A global superstorm would kill BILLIONS. Not a desirable outcome.
Quoting Levi32:
Check out the crash in global temperatures over the last few days. The orange line is 2010, the blue line is 2009, and the green line is the coldest year of the past decade (1999). This is the coldest December 30th of the past 10 years.



I was just checkin some of the sites. This was interesting. I wonder how this stuff will eventually impact the tropics next year. I guess we will see :)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news/2010WxSummary.pdf
theories of an abrupt thermohaline circulation shutdown are unfounded and outside of predicted results of warming.
Interesting article on dust. Sample:

Kok’s theory suggests that dust storms produce two to eight times more silt-sized particles than climatologists previously thought. Neglecting the boost in particles suggests that climate models, and even short-term weather models for dusty regions, are somewhat off. Until climate scientists better understand how dust changes over time, however, Kok said it’s tough to gauge the effects.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
theories of an abrupt thermohaline circulation shutdown are unfounded and outside of predicted results of warming.
Explain why its happened before. See my blog for further information on global superstorms. I am building a mini database on them.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneKatrina/comment.html?entrynum=14
Quoting Ossqss:


I was just checkin some of the sites. This was interesting. I wonder how this stuff will eventually impact the tropics next year. I guess we will see :)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news/2010WxSummary.pdf


I would make sure it was occurring before I predicted its effects.

Its weird after how skeptical you all are of thousands of sources and proxies for warming you jump on some extremely probable defective satellite reading like its gospel.
Quoting bappit:
Interesting article on dust. Sample:

Kok’s theory suggests that dust storms produce two to eight times more silt-sized particles than climatologists previously thought. Neglecting the boost in particles suggests that climate models, and even short-term weather models for dusty regions, are somewhat off. Until climate scientists better understand how dust changes over time, however, Kok said it’s tough to gauge the effects.
That is interesting. I wonder if desertification could be a negative feedback.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL LOW 06U
9:00 AM WST December 31 2010
==========================================

At 8:00 am WST, Tropical Low (999 hPa) located at 16.0S 125.3E (overland), or 390 kilometres east northeast of Broome and 230 kilometres northeast of Derby has 10 minute sustained winds of 15 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west southwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday morning after it moves off the west Kimberley coast tonight. Coastal areas of the west Kimberley between Cockatoo Island and Wallal including Broome can expect a period of strong winds and heavy rain later today and tonight as the low passes by.

While gales are not expected today, gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on Saturday for a brief period as the system moves steadily towards the west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast. By Sunday the system is likely to be north of Exmouth and continuing to move towards the west southwest.

Heavy rainfall of 100 to 150mm is expected in the north and west Kimberley today with significant stream rises with local flooding possible, refer to the latest Flood Watch [IDW39610] for further details. The system is unlikely to cause flooding in the Pilbara due to its steady movement.

Tropical Cyclone Warning
=======================
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal and island communities from Wallal to Exmouth

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.9S 122.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 17.9S 119.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 20.2S 113.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 21.0S 109.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================
The system was located over land using surface observations, satellite images and Wyndham radar under moderate shear of 10 to 20 knots.

Model guidance is consistent with a west to southwest track due to a strong mid level ridge to the south. The low is likely to move offshore late Friday into favorable sea surface temperatures. Being forecast to be of midget size, the system should develop rapidly into a tropical cyclone after spending less than 12 hours over open water.

Upper level winds are unidirectional but as the system is moving in the direction of the shear, it is likely to experience favorable shear conditions. The system is likely to have reasonable structure as it moves offshore. Given its forecast motion of 15 knots, strong winds should extend further on the southern side increasing the chance of gales on the Pilbara coast, albeit for a relatively short period.

The system is forecast to intensify rapidly over open water and should reach category 3 in 48 hours. In the longer term the system is likely to encounter cooler waters northwest of Exmouth which should inhibit any further development.
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
A global superstorm would kill BILLIONS. Not a desirable outcome.


Actually, a solar flare could provide a similar impact if it got lucky with the proper aim. Just sayin, we rely heavily on that of which we do not control :(

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/





Quoting JFLORIDA:


I would make sure it was occurring before I predicted its effects.

Its weird after how skeptical you all are of thousands of sources and proxies for warming you jump on some extremely probable defective satellite reading like its gospel.


Happy New Year :P !
Quoting Ossqss:


Actually, a solar flare could provide a similar impact if it got lucky with the proper aim. Just sayin, we rely heavily on that of which we do not control :(

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/







Happy New Year :P !
A new ice age would be caused by the global superstorm. Just like on "The Day After Tomorrow".
http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/whatis.html
I dont see any reputable research calling for an "ice age." I don't see any for sustained "global cooling." I see very little on the effects of warming the lower ocean.

Would you or anyone that has links post them.
Seems like we are going around in circles tonight. Almost time for George Noory and Coast To Coast. They took Phil Hendrie off my local station.
more like dead ends.

Cost to cost is an old favorite though.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I dont see any reputable research calling for an "ice age."

None whatsoever.

Would you post links.

http://www.terracycles.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1:superstorms&catid= 1:earth&Itemid=2
http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/whyshouldyoulisten.html
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneKatrina/comment.html?entrynum=14
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNlzsVeSTQM
http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ciencia/esp_ciencia_tsunami17.htm#Contents
http://books.google.com/books?id=q6pDFI7EiRsC&printsec=frontcover&dq=the coming global superstorm&h l=en&src=bmrr&ei=Awf3TPSbDo-q8Aa62NieBw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=1&ved=0CCgQ6AEwAA#v=one page&q&f=false

Quoting JFLORIDA:
more like dead ends.

Cost to cost is an old favorite though.


Coast To Coast is just entertainment. It puts me to sleep. I loved Phil Hendrie. All those people calling in thinking the guests were real.
reputable.

1. enjoying good repute : held in esteem
2. employed widely or sanctioned by good writers

Yes thats all interesting. But within reasonable discourse not really a probable area needing concern (yet).
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I dont see any reputable research calling for an "ice age." I don't see any for sustained "global cooling." I see very little on the effects of warming the lower ocean.

Would you or anyone that has links post them.



From Bliderberg press release:
The 58th Bilderberg Meeting will be held in Sitges, Spain 3-6 June 2010. The Conference will deal mainly with Financial Reform, Security, Cyber Technology, Energy, Pakistan, Afghanistan, World Food Problem, Global Cooling, Social Networking, Medical Science, EU-US relations.
You have only until January 31, 2011 to watch all of the SG1 videos on Hulu. They are free.
I will be in my blog if needed.
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
That is interesting. I wonder if desertification could be a negative feedback.

Depends on whether the dust is reflecting light or trapping infrared. Early in the article the popular news article suggests that silt-sized particles have a larger effect in trapping infrared. That would be a positive feedback. Nothing beats the original source. I take these news articles with a grain of salt.
Quoting bappit:

Depends on whether the dust is reflecting light or trapping infrared. Early in the article the popular news article suggests that silt-sized particles have a larger effect in trapping infrared. That would be a positive feedback. Nothing beats the original source. I take these news articles with a grain of salt.
I do too. The last thing we need is another positive feedback.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I will be in my blog if needed.

How do you get in your blog? I had squirrels in my attic. Is it something like that?
Hey everybody, just dropping in to say hello.
Hi canes...



Good evening people!

I see no major conflicts so far. Kudos.



Crap. Geoff, did ya really have to go there? lol
No...I could of gone here

Quoting HurricaneKatrina:

For heavens sake GLOBAL WARMING CAN CAUSE COOLING. INCLUDING AN ICE AGE ALMOST EXACTLY AS SEEN ON "THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW"!
http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/whatis.html
Um hello key words YOU DECIDE.


That's a big upgrade. The Munster's, was infinitely better.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi canes...


Hello Geoff. I haven't been on all day, i've been helping someone out. It's just an awkward day for me lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
Um hello key words YOU DECIDE.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/HurricaneKatrina/comment.html?entrynum=14 Its not a choice I can make. It is just the way it is.

http://www.globalsuperstorm.bravehost.com/prevention.html

http://www.amazon.com/Coming-Global-Superstorm-Art-Bell/dp/0743470656%3FSubscriptionId%3D06KMPSHEDS XXQMQVT482%26tag%3Daskcom-20%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D074 3470656 Read this book about how Global warming can trigger a global superstorm and a new ice age.



Perhaps I'll bow out.
305. BtnTx
Quoting bappit:

How do you get in your blog? I had squirrels in my attic. Is it something like that?

Now That's Funny!
Keep Manhattan ...



This looks like trouble.

311. xcool


Looks like the storm is going to cover Route 66. From the Los Angeles NWS:

Statement as of 2:39 PM PST on December 30, 2010

... Significant wind gusts since 1139 am PST Thursday...
Los Angeles County peak wind gust
Burbank... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Northwest 33 mph.
Whittier hills... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..northwest 37 mph.
Malibu Hills... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .south 45 mph.
Saugus... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .north 51 mph.
Camp Nine... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .northwest 48 mph.
Chilao... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .north 37 mph.
Warm Springs... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .west 40 mph.
Whitaker Peak... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... northwest 44 mph.
Saddleback Butte... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... southwest 33 mph.
Lancaster... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .northwest 36 mph.
Ventura County peak wind gust
chuchupate... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... north 33 mph.
Rose Valley... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..North 32 mph.
Santa Barbara County peak wind gust
Vandenberg... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... north 32 mph.
San Luis Obispo County peak wind gust
none
I suppose there is no chance this can return to a weather blog.
Quoting pilotguy1:
I suppose there is no chance this can return to a weather blog.
Wait till hurricane season comes or a real dangerous weather event is in the making/occuring.
Quoting Chicklit:


This looks like trouble.

You know when the jetstream is in the position it's in,theirs bound to be trouble.
322. JRRP
mmmm El Niño in July ????


Quoting JRRP:
mmmm El Niño in July ????


I don't really belive that solution.I thonk we'll enter El nino in december 2011-spring 2012.Not unless La nina flips over to El nino quickly like this past spring/summer,wicth I seriously doubt will happen.
It's understandable given the high underwater earthquake activity in the last several weeks. Either by pressure, friction, or volcanic activity the sea waters are warmer and stronger steam currents flow in their way.
Quoting JRRP:
mmmm El Niño in July ????




Looks neutral to me, even in the region that matters most -- Nino 3.4.
327. xcool
JRRP:
i'm gonna say neutra ;)
El Nino by June. Strong by August. (thats the most extreme ill go.) El Nino by August though.

Best guess.
0619 UNK INDIAN POINT STONE MO 3664 9335 EM REPORTS DAMANGE TO A PROPANE TANK AND SEVERAL HOMES IN THE INDIAN POINT AREA. THIS DAMANGE WAS FROM THE FIRST STORM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. (SGF)
0623 UNK 5 SSE ROGERSVILLE CHRISTIAN MO 3705 9301 TREES DOWN AND A FEW OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BRADEN AND LAROSE. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (SGF)
0629 UNK 5 ESE ROGERSVILLE WEBSTER MO 3709 9297 SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF OLGA ROAD AND HIGHWAY U. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (SGF)
0635 UNK BRANSON WEST STONE MO 3670 9337 REPORT FROM TRAINED SPOTTER VIA MEDIA OF POWER FLASHES AROUND BRANSON WEST. (SGF)


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 765...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010


CORRECTED TO ELIMINATE ACCIDENTAL INCLUSION OF A COUNTY IN THE TX PANHANDLE

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING FROM 110 AM UNTIL 800 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF GROVE
OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF VICHY MISSOURI. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN MOIST AXIS INVOF WEAK LEAD
IMPULSE MOVING RAPIDLY NE AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
ENTERING WRN OK /REF MCD 2156/. STRENGTH OF LOW LVL
SHEAR...CONTINUED LOW LVL MOISTENING...AND DAMAGE REPORTS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONGLY ROTATING STORMS IN PAST HOUR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ONE
OR TWO TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.


Happy New Years Gang!!!
This weekend looks like there is the possibility for some severe weather in the SE.

Not to mention a winter storm in the northern midsection.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
This weekend looks like there is the possibility for some severe weather in the SE.

Not to mention a winter storm in the northern midsection.


Normally I'd love severe weather, being the weather enthusiast that I am. When I have plans, however...
Quoting traumaboyy:
Happy New Years Gang!!!


You too!
You'd think it was too cool. Or I would at least. But I guess we are going to see quite a warm up.
Does anyone know where I can find the records for record high low temperature, the record high for today is 73 but what I'm looking for is the record high low temps and record low high temps if you know what I'm saying. For example right now where I'm at in Ft. Worth, TX it is 66 degrees and I doubt it will fall that much more in the next few hours - we may set a record for highest low temp today. They forecasted it to be in the lower 50's tonight and it won't get anywhere near that it looks like.
Here I think is what you are looking for. Im out. St Louis looks to be in for some bad weather in a bit.
Thanks, JFlorida I appreciate it.
Happy New Year to Everyone
No WAY that we're going to see an El Nino in 2011 imo. Dec. 2011 El Nino might start, but this La Nina's too strong and might even strengthen more.


Looks like things are cranking up in the central conus.
Hope you are all sliding into home plate by midnight. HNY!
Three deaths being reported in an Arkansas tornado:

I never post videos.

If you are a global warming skeptic, Fox News viewer--or, likely, both--this should keep you busy for hours. ;-)

;-)
Floods in Egypt:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12098133
I saw this and thought one thing: WU.

Quoting Neapolitan:
I never post videos.

If you are a global warming skeptic, Fox News viewer--or, likely, both--this should keep you busy for hours. ;-)

;-)


LMAO

I'm an officially an idiot, it took my like 45 seconds to figure it out. XD
Those baseball metaphors always confuse me.