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Unprecedented early-year heat smashes all-time records in Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:04 PM GMT on March 15, 2012

The first day of spring doesn't arrive until Tuesday, but Mother Nature has fast-forwarded past spring and gone straight to summer over the Midwest. Yesterday, large portions of Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Indiana recorded their all-time warmest temperatures for so early in the year, including the cities of Chicago, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, and Lansing. Temperature records for these cities go back as far as 1863. Perhaps the most extraordinary record was set in Traverse City, Michigan, which hit 81°F--a temperature 42°F above the average high for the date, and four degrees warmer than any previous day so early in the year. Records go back to 1897 in the city.


Figure 1. Spring has arrived early in Sherrard, Illinois, and much of the Midwest, thanks to a record-breaking March heat wave. Image credit: wunderphotographer JourneysEnd.

Major airports that set all-time heat records yesterday

Chicago, Illinois hit 81°F; the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 35°F above average. This ties the record set on March 12, 1990.

Springfield, Illinois hit 83°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1879, and 32°F above average. This ties the record of 83°F on March 13, 1918.

Rockford, Illinois hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 33°F above average. Previous record: 78°F on March 7, 2000.

Peoria, Illinois hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1883, and 31°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 12, 1990.

Minneapolis, Minnesota hit 73°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1872, and 33°F above average. This ties the 73°F reading of March 7, 2000.

Grand Rapids, Michigan hit 80°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1892, and 37 degrees above average. Previous record: 78°F on March 8, 2000.

Muskegon, Michigan hit 77°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1896, and 35°F above average. Previous record: 73°F on March 8, 2000.

Traverse City, Michigan hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1897, and 42°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 7, 2000.

Lansing, Michigan hit 79°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1863, and 36°F above average. This ties the record of 79°F on March 8, 2000.

Indianapolis, Indiana hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1871, and 30°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 8, 1974 and March 13, 2007.

South Bend, Indiana hit 81°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1893, and 35°F above average. Previous record: 80°F on March 8, 2000.

Evansville, Indiana hit 82°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1871, and 25°F above average. This ties the record of 82°F set on March 10, 1990.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and 36°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 7 and 8, 2000.

Madison, Wisconsin hit 78°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1869, and was 36°F above average. Previous record: 77°F on March 8, 2000.

Green Bay, Wisconsin hit 75°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1886, and 37°F above average. Previous record: 74°F on March 8, 2000.

Dubuque, Iowa hit 75°F, the warmest it's ever been this early in the year, going back to 1874, and 37°F above average. This ties the 75°F reading of March 12, 1990.

Data for the previous records was taken from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Why the record early-season warmth?
The unusual warmth is due to a loop in the jet stream that has created a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that is stuck in place over the Eastern U.S.--a phenomenon known as a "blocking pattern." Since the jet stream acts as the boundary between cold air to the north and warm air to the south, and the large loop in the jet places its axis far to the north of the eastern U.S., summer-like warmth has developed over the eastern half of the U.S. Conversely, colder than average temperatures have developed over the western third of the U.S. behind the southwards-dipping loop of the jet stream. There are at least three large-scale patterns working together right now to create an unusually strong high-pressure ridge over the eastern half of the U.S.:

1) La Niña. The on-going La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific has weakened considerably over the past month, but ocean temperatures there are still cool enough to affect the jet stream pattern, favoring high pressure and warm temperatures over the Eastern U.S., and low pressure and cold temperatures over the Western U.S.

2) The Madden-Julian Oscillation( MJO). The MJO is a 2-month cycle of thunderstorm activity that travels west to east along the Equator. The MJO is currently in phase with La Niña, and is helping create warmer temperatures over the Eastern U.S.

3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The NAO is in its positive phase, which means the difference in pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High is stronger than usual. This tends to increase the jet stream winds and keeps the jet from sagging southwards over the Eastern U.S.

While the blocking pattern responsible for the heat wave is natural, it is improbable that the intensity of the heat would have been so great unless we were in a warming climate. Climate scientist Dr. James Hansen has posted an interesting (as yet unpublished) paper discussing how the odds of such extreme heat events have shifted in recent years. I plan to discuss these concepts in more detail next week.


Figure 2. Predicted high temperatures for Thursday, March 15, 2012 over much of the Midwest are more typical of June than March.

The forecast
The summer-like heat continues today over the Midwest, with the greatest departures from average (30°+) expected over Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. This area of 30°+ above average temperatures will expand to stretch from South Dakota to New York on Sunday and Monday, then gradually shift eastwards, extending from Wisconsin to Maine by Wednesday. The jet stream loop is predicted to grow more pronounced this weekend, and reach a truly extreme configuration on Monday and Tuesday. On those days, the predicted strength of the upper-level ridge of ridge pressure along the northern tier of states, from Wisconsin to Maine, will be typical of what we see at the height of summer, during July and August. The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the height at where a pressure of 500 mb is found will range between 5760 - 5800 meters on those days--7% higher than the typical mid-March 500 mb heights of 5460 meters. Record-breaking summer-like temperatures will last until at least Friday, March 23, for much of the Midwest and Northeast U.S.

Extreme jet stream patterns like this often lead to tornado outbreaks in the Midwest, at the boundary of where warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico collides with cold, dry air flowing south. Cold dry air aloft, combined with warm, moist air at the surface, makes the atmosphere unstable, since air rising in thunderstorm updrafts will be less dense than the surroundings, allowing the air to accelerate upwards and increase the intensity of the thunderstorm. This will be the case on Sunday, when NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a potential risk area for severe weather from Texas northwards through Nebraska. Fortunately, the winds of the jet stream are expected to blow almost due south to north over the region by Monday, which may limit the amount of cold air aloft that can overrun the warm air at the surface, resulting in a more stable atmosphere and a reduced chance of severe weather compared to Sunday.

Jeff Masters
in bloom today
in bloom today

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

One can almost hear Troy Howling, "Look at da size of dat sucker' "


WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction

Description: Latest CME-based model run
Medium rotation on the shoreline N of Toledo:

I'm really surprised to see any thunderstorm activity over Central Florida today due to the strong ridge aloft, I have a small but potent thunderstorm cell producing some loud thunder just northeast of me right near Tampa Bay.

Tee, hee, hee....


THE SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
26N81W IN SOUTH FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC VORTEX IN THE LOW
CLOUDS THAT IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W.


(You might want to "see also" MCD 260 which also addressed the weather in the thumb of Michigan.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76...

VALID 160002Z - 160100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76
CONTINUES.

THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WW AREA. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LARGE HAIL MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER DARK. THE WW MAY BE
LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.

SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST SURFACE CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE VICINITY OF A CONFLUENT ZONE...NOW EXTENDING FROM NEAR FORT
WAYNE IND TO EAST OF SAGINAW MI. SUBTLE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY
MAINTAIN ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS DIURNAL COOLING
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SURFACE-BASED
STORMS...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL BECOME LESS
PROBABLE WITH TIME. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE THAT LED TO THE ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW LOCATED PER 00Z WV IMAGERY OVER ERN MI
AND SRN ONTARIO. WITH ITS EWD PROGRESSION...TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE IN
ITS WAKE MAY GRADUALLY DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF MI...WITH A FRONT STILL SITUATED ACROSS
THE CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN AREA OF IMPLIED
ASCENT NOW APPROACHING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES/WI...WHICH MAY STILL
SUPPORT A THREAT OF ELEVATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AFTER
DARK.

..HURLBUT.. 03/16/2012
Quoting NavarreMark:
This weekend is the day time race at Bristol TN. Unfortunately, I'm not gonna be able to make it up there this year. Just thinking about the sound of those big V-8s and the smell of the burned rubber sends a tingle up my leg.

Theres nothing else like it in the whole world. Only in America. The land of the free and the home of the brave. Makes me thank the LORD that I was born here.

Anybody from those parts know what the weathers gonna be like this weekend?


Maybe try the lil Box at dee top o dee page.. its kinda like Magic.

put in, "Bristol TN"

Sunday

Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the afternoon. Fog early. High of 68F. Winds from the East at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.



"Geaux Jr."
The damage from the Dexter, Michigan tornado appears to be at least EF-3, with winds of 136 - 165 mph. If confirmed, this would be the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950, according to data from The Tornado History Project. The previous earliest appearance on an F-3 tornado in Michigan occurred on March 20, 1976. The three tornadoes in Michigan today make it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history this early in the year. We don't get many tornadoes this early in the year in Michigan. The record for this early in the year was an outbreak of eight tornadoes on March 12, 1976.

Talked to a friend in Dexter who relayed the story of a friend who was at the Dexter car wash, washing his car. He saw the tornado coming, wisely abandoned his car, and took shelter in a nearby building. His car was damaged by a tree that was flung into it, but he was unhurt.

Jeff Masters
Quoting ClimateChange:
These tornadoes are a direct result of the unnatural, globally-warmed atmosphere present over southeast Michigan this afternoon. If people want to see the effects of climate change, look no further than Dexter, Michigan.


That is not a valid statement. You can not casually attribute a specific weather event to climate change.
2 rotations now, the front storm is starting to hook but is moving off shore again.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:
463. Quoting WxGeekVA:
Anyone who says 42 degrees above average is a "normal variation in weather patterns" needs a psychologist to examine them.

Doc M wrote: Traverse City, Michigan which hit 81F--a temperature 42F above average, and four degrees warmer than any previous day so early in the year. Records go back to 1897 in the city.

What I'm not understanding is this: What is the reason for a comparison between a high temp reading and an average temp which includes low temps? 81 minus 42, so 39 is average temp for Mar 14 in Traverse City, MI? Four degrees warmer than any previous day occurring through March 14, even for all the years going back to 1897, doesn't sound quite so ominous.

But then, maybe I need a psychologist.
:)


The average high temp for TVC is 39°F, so the high was 42° above the average high for the date.

Jeff Masters
With this kinda Spring shaping up...




"I think we're gonna need a bigger blog."
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
463. Quoting WxGeekVA:
Anyone who says 42 degrees above average is a "normal variation in weather patterns" needs a psychologist to examine them.

Doc M wrote: Traverse City, Michigan which hit 81F--a temperature 42F above average, and four degrees warmer than any previous day so early in the year. Records go back to 1897 in the city.

What I'm not understanding is this: What is the reason for a comparison between a high temp reading and an average temp which includes low temps? 81 minus 42, so 39 is average temp for Mar 14 in Traverse City, MI? Four degrees warmer than any previous day occurring through March 14, even for all the years going back to 1897, doesn't sound quite so ominous.

But then, maybe I need a psychologist.
:)
"Four degrees warmer than any previous day occurring through March 14...back to 1897, doesn't sound quite so ominous." Well, yesterday was a full four degrees warmer than any of the previous 8,400 or so January, February, or early March days there. If not ominous, it certainly seems startling, no?

Dr. Masters answered the rest of your questions in comment #511.
Check out the outflow,

you can see where it initiated storms in TN

Quoting JeffMasters:
The damage from the Dexter, Michigan tornado appears to be at least EF-3, with winds of 136 - 165 mph. If confirmed, this would be the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950, according to data from The Tornado History Project. The previous earliest appearance on an F-3 tornado in Michigan occurred on March 20, 1976. The three tornadoes in Michigan today make it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history this early in the year. We don't get many tornadoes this early in the year in Michigan. The record for this early in the year was an outbreak of eight tornadoes on March 12, 1976.

Talked to a friend in Dexter who relayed the story of a friend who was at the Dexter car wash, washing his car. He saw the tornado coming, wisely abandoned his car, and took shelter in a nearby building. His car was damaged by a tree that was flung into it, but he was unhurt.

Jeff Masters

Glad to here he's okay Dr. Glad to here no reports of injuries at all, at least so far.
Lua has nice eye...
Quoting SPLbeater:
Lua has nice eye...


? I'm not even sure she has one :P Though there could be one in a microwave image... I haven't seen one of those lately for her.
Quoting JeffMasters:


The average high temp for TVC is 39°F, so the high was 42° above the average high for the date.

Jeff Masters


My apologies, it was a typo. I meant to say 42 the whole time.
Quoting Patrap:
With this kinda Spring shaping up...




"I think we're gonna need a bigger blog."

good evening again...that's a nice one Patrap
Quoting SPLbeater:
Lua has nice eye...

TC Lua is predicted to become a cat 3, I hope the peole in the projected path is prepared
Quoting aspectre:
246 nymore "I know about cement and concrete very well, I also know the types of cement. Technically I could be pumping water, aggregate, cement, plasticizers, water reducers, fly ash, retarders, fiber mesh, accelerators should I continue. You would just call it concrete."

No, you would.
Everybody else would call it a cement truck. Ya pour the cement, then wash the mixer out with water.
If you wait too long before washing, ya get concrete in the mixer. Then ya get yelled at before being ordered to hammer and chisel it out.
The only "concrete truck" that I know of is called a dump truck.
Nearly the same as the difference between dough and bread, except ya hafta add heat to cook the dough while cement "cooks"/cures itself.
A cement and aggregate and water mixture is called cement while it's still wet, until it's cured beyond plasticity. In (subconcious) recognition that whatever gets stuck in it is gonna be "glued" to the resulting mass after drying
Concrete is created when the cement cures&dries.

Ya pour, level, and finish cement. Ya either drill, grind, cut, sledge, or jackhammer concrete.
You cement in a sign post or a fence post. If you start with concrete, it's best to have straps or bolts already cemented into it to tie your post to the concrete.
Hey don't take word of a concrete superintendent what concrete is. Here maybe you will take it from the Portland Cement Association

img src="What is the difference between cement and concrete? Although the terms cement and concrete often are used interchangeably, cement is actually an ingredient of concrete. Concrete is basically a mixture of aggregates and paste. The aggregates are sand and gravel or crushed stone; the paste is water and portland cement. Concrete gets stronger as it gets older. Portland cement is not a brand name, but the generic term for the type of cement used in virtually all concrete, just as stainless is a type of steel and sterling a type of silver. Cement comprises from 10 to 15 percent of the concrete mix, by volume. Through a process called hydration, the cement and water harden and bind the aggregates into a rocklike mass. This hardening process continues for years meaning that concrete gets stronger as it gets older. So, there is no such thing as a cement sidewalk, or a cement mixer; the proper terms are concrete sidewalk and concrete mixer. ">
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
746 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 746 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
TRACKING A CLUSTER OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MADISON COUNTY BETWEEN
HUNTSVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND DOWNTOWN HUNTSVILLE. PUBLIC
REPORTS OF WATER COVERING ROADS AROUND HUNTSVILLE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HUNTSVILLE...MADISON...REDSTONE ARSENAL AND UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA
IN HUNTSVILLE.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


? I'm not even sure she has one :P Though there could be one in a microwave image... I haven't seen one of those lately for her.


A new microwave image(which covers 99% of the system lol) shows a ragged eye with Lua.

I might blog about that. *runs off to get some paper*
Nice footage of the Dexter Tornado. It was a pretty large tornado.
A little better than ragged.



I'd go with 80kts at this time.



That's strange.

GLOSEA is showing an absence in excessive precipitation across nearly the entire Atlantic during June, July, and August.
Quoting JeffMasters:
The damage from the Dexter, Michigan tornado appears to be at least EF-3, with winds of 136 - 165 mph. If confirmed, this would be the earliest EF-3 or stronger tornado in Michigan history, going back to 1950, according to data from The Tornado History Project. The previous earliest appearance on an F-3 tornado in Michigan occurred on March 20, 1976. The three tornadoes in Michigan today make it the second largest tornado outbreak in state history this early in the year. We don't get many tornadoes this early in the year in Michigan. The record for this early in the year was an outbreak of eight tornadoes on March 12, 1976.

Talked to a friend in Dexter who relayed the story of a friend who was at the Dexter car wash, washing his car. He saw the tornado coming, wisely abandoned his car, and took shelter in a nearby building. His car was damaged by a tree that was flung into it, but he was unhurt.

Jeff Masters


Please let us know if there opportunities for Portlight to help...
Sure is a pretty system for this intensity.



That or it's been so long since we've had anything tropical to talk about that I forget what is pretty and what is not.
Quoting JeffMasters:


The average high temp for TVC is 39°F, so the high was 42° above the average high for the date.

Jeff Masters


Thank you. TVC sounds too cold for me.
:)
Quoting yqt1001:
A little better than ragged.



I'd go with 80kts at this time.




Yeah...it's a pretty nice eye
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Four degrees warmer than any previous day occurring through March 14...back to 1897, doesn't sound quite so ominous." Well, yesterday was a full four degrees warmer than any of the previous 8,400 or so January, February, or early March days there. If not ominous, it certainly seems startling, no?

Dr. Masters answered the rest of your questions in comment #511.


Thank you, Neo. Saw it.

The answer to your question to me. No. It's just weather.
:)
Quoting yqt1001:
Sure is a pretty system for this intensity.



That or it's been so long since we've had anything tropical to talk about that I forget what is pretty and what is not.

It's a fairly nice system
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Thank you, Neo. Saw it.

The answer to your question to me. No. It's just weather.
:)
Maybe...but if so, there's an awful lot of "just weather" going on lately.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
That's strange.

GLOSEA is showing an absence in excessive precipitation across nearly the entire Atlantic during June, July, and August.

That would be very strange....
But then, this year is being pretty unpredictable so far....
Quoting Patrap:

Tee, hee, hee....


THE SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
26N81W IN SOUTH FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC VORTEX IN THE LOW
CLOUDS THAT IS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W.




Been watchin' it all day (since 5am today) ... been rather windy here today with more rain than we expected.

Wondered if anyone else noticed this little swirl ...
Any town which can lay claim to having produced both Bob Seger and Jeff Masters must have somethin' goin' for it...
The preliminary numbers say 411 high temperature records were set or tied today across the United States, along with 298 high minimum records, for a total of 709. By the time final numbers are tallied, the total should come in around 900 or so, meaning today set or tied more high temperature records than any day this year or last (April 10, 2011, saw 785 high records).

For the month to-date, 1,590 new daily record highs have been set vs. 94 new daily record lows, for a ratio of 16.91 to 1. And the current heat wave is expected to last through at least the middle of next week.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Maybe...but if so, there's an awful lot of "just weather" going on lately.


I wish more naivetes would follow the points you make Nea, they're always so valid.
Quoting presslord:
Any town which can lay claim to having produced both Bob Seger and Jeff Masters must have somethin' goin' for it...

Who's Jeff Masters??
Link to my new tropical weather blog on TC Lua is you wanna check it out...:)
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
9:00 AM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (968 hPa) located at 16.2S 115.9E or 515 km north northwest of Karratha 540 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Lua has intensified to a severe tropical cyclone and is now moving towards the east Pilbara coast.

Gales are currently being experienced in offshore Pilbara waters and are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga late Friday night. Very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend to remaining coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Mardie during Saturday and then to inland eastern Pilbara areas later on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Heavy surf conditions are expected along the east Pilbara and west Kimberley coast during Friday and Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as adjacent inland parts of the eastern Pilbara.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the central and eastern inland Pilbara including Telfer, Newman and Paraburdoo, the far western inland Kimberley, the eastern Gascoyne including Meekatharra, and the far western Interior.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 17.3S 117.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 19.0S 119.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 24.7S 119.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 30.6S 121.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Position is based on recent microwave passes.

Dvorak analysis based on embedded center give a DT of 4.5 consistent with MET 4.5 based on a trend of D-. Final intensity estimate is 65 knots 10-min mean while ADT/AMSU intensity estimate is 70 knots.

Shear has begun to decrease [-10 knots at 18Z] and the system is heading into an area of lighter shear during the day. Conditions are favorable for further development during Friday with the system expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone until landfall along the east Pilbara coast during Saturday. Shear increases as upper northwesterlies increase over the system during Saturday but this may not occur in time to weaken the cyclone prior to landfall. The system is likely to maintain TC intensity into Sunday morning as it moves over inland parts of Western Australia.

There is very good general agreement across model guidance for a coastal crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Quoting pottery:

Who's Jeff Masters??
Hey pottery.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The preliminary numbers say 411 high temperature records were set or tied today across the United States, along with 298 high minimum records, for a total of 709. By the time final numbers are tallied, the total should come in around 900 or so, meaning today set or tied more high temperature records than any day this year or last (April 10, 2011, saw 785 high records).

For the month to-date, 1,590 new daily record highs have been set vs. 94 new daily record lows, for a ratio of 16.91 to 1. And the current heat wave is expected to last through at least the middle of next week.

This is pretty scary, you know.
For a couple of years now, some people (me for one, actually) have been saying that weather forecasting for periods longer than a week is pretty irrelevant considering how fast the Climate is changing.

The fact is, we really don't have any data anymore to base our forecasts on simply because we have never been 'here' before.

An episode like the one which is the topic of this blog is so unusual and unpredicted. And yet after the fact we can make good assessments of why it happened.
But we still can't predict it.

Scary...

Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey pottery.

Greetings!
Sunny days here, finally. With just a few scattered showers to keep the dust down. It's been a very wet 'dry season' for sure.
Quoting SPLbeater:
Link to my new tropical weather blog on TC Lua is you wanna check it out...:)

Nice blog post, keep up the good work
Quoting pottery:

Greetings!
Sunny days here, finally. With just a few scattered showers to keep the dust down. It's been a very wet 'dry season' for sure.
We need rain here in D.C.We've been getting on the dry side latly.The Cherry Blossom Festival is starting earlier than usual this year.People expect the trees to bloom in April.Not March XD.
Good evening pottery. The ITCZ looks anemic right now and that is a source of rain for you there.
North Americas favorite weather forecaster Frankie MacDonald has a warning for Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas

img src="">
Quoting nigel20:

Nice blog post, keep up the good work


Thanks nigel! You know...I wonder how long my posts might be if we ever have 3 systems active this year plus an Invest.

might look like a book, lol xD
www.solarham.com

GEOMAGNETIC STORM ALERT:

A minor Geomagnetic Storm (KP=5) is currently in progress due to an incoming CME shock.
pdated 3/15/2012 @ 21:30 UTC
Moderate Geomagnetic Storm
The ACE Spacecraft detected a sharp increase in solar wind speed to near 800 km/s. This indicated the arrival of an incoming CME shock past the spacecraft. A geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 27nT was just detected shortly afterwards by the Boulder, Colorado Magnetometer at 13:09 UTC and this signaled that the interplanetary shock had swept past our planet. A moderate G2 Geomagnetic Storm resulted, but is slowly declining. The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field was pointing sharply south for long durations.

Be on the lookout for Aurora at high latitudes.

Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.





Quoting SPLbeater:


Thanks nigel! You know...I wonder how long my posts might be if we ever have 3 systems active this year plus an Invest.

might look like a book, lol xD

Like back in 2010 when we had 3 hurricanes in the atlantic at the same
Quoting nigel20:

Like back in 2010 when we had 3 hurricanes in the atlantic at the same


yeah- Cat 4 Igor, Cat 4 Julia, and TS...um...what was its name?

KARL!! thats it! TS Karl!
Quoting nymore:
North Americas favorite weather forecaster Frankie MacDonald has a warning for Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas

img src="">


he should be banned from youtube lol. i seen 3 vids of his...and have gotten 3 headaches.
Quoting Patrap:
www.solarham.com

GEOMAGNETIC STORM ALERT:

A minor Geomagnetic Storm (KP=5) is currently in progress due to an incoming CME shock.
pdated 3/15/2012 @ 21:30 UTC
Moderate Geomagnetic Storm
The ACE Spacecraft detected a sharp increase in solar wind speed to near 800 km/s. This indicated the arrival of an incoming CME shock past the spacecraft. A geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 27nT was just detected shortly afterwards by the Boulder, Colorado Magnetometer at 13:09 UTC and this signaled that the interplanetary shock had swept past our planet. A moderate G2 Geomagnetic Storm resulted, but is slowly declining. The Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field was pointing sharply south for long durations.

Be on the lookout for Aurora at high latitudes.

Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest information.





would be nice to see that aurora at least once in my lifetime, they say its a beautiful sight
Quoting SPLbeater:


he should be banned from youtube lol. i seen 3 vids of his...and have gotten 3 headaches.
How do you not like him, he is classic. He has been interviewed and is also the official forecaster for a radio show on Xm/Sirius satellite radio. Oh course their official spiritual advisers are the Westboro Baptist Church.
Quoting SPLbeater:


yeah- Cat 4 Igor, Cat 4 Julia, and TS...um...what was its name?

KARL!! thats it! TS Karl!

What an year that was(2010 hurricane season) started off slowly and then really picked up in late august...I think we had 36 consecutive days of tropical activity
Quoting docrod:


Been watchin' it all day (since 5am today) ... been rather windy here today with more rain than we expected.

Wondered if anyone else noticed this little swirl ...
we had a little sea breeze rain here in the tampabay region, enough to wet the streets, been awhile since we even got that much
Quoting LargoFl:
would be nice to see that aurora at least once in my lifetime, they say its a beautiful sight

I would like to see it as well...watching the aurora on video is not the same as experiencing it in person
Quoting nymore:
How do you not like him, he is classic. He has been interviewed and is also the official forecaster for a radio show on Xm/Sirius satellite radio. Oh course their official spiritual advisers are the Westboro Baptist Church.


i cant like somebody who consistently gives me headaches. your being sarcastic i know it lol

or issues tornado warnings for thousands of square miles, that is currently quiet.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
913 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CDT

* AT 909 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 31
MILES WEST OF PERSIMMON GAP...OR 36 MILES NORTH OF LAJITAS...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM IS 1 MILE WEST OF PERSIMMON
GAP. MOVEMENT IS EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
WESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY...
CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY...INCLUDING PERSIMMON GAP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH... PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS... DESTRUCTIVE HAIL... AND DEADLY
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Quoting SPLbeater:


i cant like somebody who consistently gives me headaches. your being sarcastic i know it lol

or issues tornado warnings for thousands of square miles, that is currently quiet.
no not being sarcastic. I don't think I can say the name of the show on here without getting in trouble. He says tuesday
Quoting nigel20:

What a year that was(2010 hurricane season) started off slowly and then really picked up in late august...I think we had 36 consecutive days of tropical activity


ya, and when we had Igor and Julia both at cat 4 intensity. Julia set a record for the strongest storm that far east.
Quoting nymore:
no not being sarcastic. I don't think I can say the name of the show on here without getting in trouble.


if your ot being sarcastic or funny, then you must have some special relationship with him? anyways, i wont never put faith in whatever he says. lol
Quoting SPLbeater:


if your ot being sarcastic or funny, then you must have some special relationship with him? anyways, i wont never put faith in whatever he says. lol
I don't faith in him. I just love his passion. heard of him when he was on XM

Pretty active hail day...
I typed up my pre-season hurricane season forecast earlier today. Only took me five hours between talking to friends, tracking tornadoes, talking on here, and doing other things, lol. I'm not going to bore you guys, so here are some of the highlights:

-- Positive NAO, meaning a stronger subtropical ridge.
-- SAL Outbreaks and unfavorable East Atlantic for tropical cyclone development.
-- More close to home formations and landfalls
-- Near normal Sea Surface Temperatures (above in Gulf, below in East Atlantic)
-- Neutral/El Nino ENSO

Numbers: 12-7-4
night all.
S E Michigan Tornados 3 15 2012

holy HAIL , michigan march 15 2012

Uploaded by CountVictorVonScary on Mar 15, 2012

Uploaded by eclectablog on Mar 15, 2012

Uploaded by annarborcom on Mar 15, 2012

This video report by AnnArbor.com's Nathan Bomey shows tornado damage in the Dexter, Michigan area about 90 minutes after the tornado came through on Thursday, March 15, 2012.

Quoting Patrap:
holy HAIL , michigan march 15 2012

Uploaded by CountVictorVonScary on Mar 15, 2012



Nice pun, that.
Quoting LargoFl:
we had a little sea breeze rain here in the tampabay region, enough to wet the streets, been awhile since we even got that much

Light rain here today, just enough.

BTW - I have seen the northern lights twice in my life - Once in Iowa back in the 1960's and once in Florida (Levy County - Cheifland) in November 2003 during the fall star party held there annually.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nice pun, that.

That's not correct grammar.

I sentence you to 50 more years of working at Wal-Mart.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's not correct grammar.

I sentence you to 50 more years of working at Wal-Mart.


By then I'll be a meteorologist, so I'm not worried.
Quoting KoritheMan:


By then I'll be a meteorologist, so I'm not worried.

No, you are not allowed to be a meteorologist. You will work at Wal-Mart and Wal-Mart alone for the next 50 years.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, you are not allowed to be a meteorologist. You will work at Wal-Mart and Wal-Mart alone for the next 50 years.


I'll take it up with the store manager. I'm sure he'll take my side.

What ever happened to the second l in the word Wal ... mart ...ket.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'll take it up with the store manager. I'm sure he'll take my side.

No.

In other news, Mississippi was the most active state in terms of severe thunderstorm AND tornado warnings last year.




It is thought freezing conditions over the winter months may have weakened Dover's famous chalk rock



A large section of Dover's famous white cliffs has broken away and crashed into the Channel, according to the coastguard.

Tonnes of rock collapsed into the sea between Langdon Cliffs and South Foreland Lighthouse.

Dover Coastguard said no-one was injured during the "substantial" rockfall, which happened in an area know locally as Crab Bay.

The National Trust has put up warning signs to alert walkers.

It is thought freezing conditions over the winter may have weakened the chalk cliffs.

A full survey is expected to be carried out to determine the amount and length of cliff that collapsed on Friday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-1736639 6

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.


Home office then. Surely you aren't arrogant enough to think you can supersede their authority?
Quoting sunlinepr:

It is thought freezing conditions over the winter months may have weakened Dover's famous chalk rock



A large section of Dover's famous white cliffs has broken away and crashed into the Channel, according to the coastguard.

Tonnes of rock collapsed into the sea between Langdon Cliffs and South Foreland Lighthouse.

Dover Coastguard said no-one was injured during the "substantial" rockfall, which happened in an area know locally as Crab Bay.

The National Trust has put up warning signs to alert walkers.

It is thought freezing conditions over the winter may have weakened the chalk cliffs.

A full survey is expected to be carried out to determine the amount and length of cliff that collapsed on Friday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-1736639 6


Really sorry to hear that. They are very dear to the British, especially the previous generation. A very famous song was popular during the war. Special song to a special people.


Quoting KoritheMan:

Home office then. Surely you aren't arrogant enough to think you can supersede their authority?

Arrogant? Nope.

Can I supersede them? Yep.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Can I supersede them? Yep.
On what basis?
Quoting KoritheMan:

On what basis?

I win at everything. At least, if it concerns you. =P
Quoting Patrap:
holy HAIL , michigan march 15 2012

Uploaded by CountVictorVonScary on Mar 15, 2012

What happened? Did it blow in through the Narthex and wind up in the baptismal fount. Did a bunch of strange guys come looking for it?

Quoting sunlinepr:

It is thought freezing conditions over the winter months may have weakened Dover's famous chalk rock



A large section of Dover's famous white cliffs has broken away and crashed into the Channel, according to the coastguard.

Tonnes of rock collapsed into the sea between Langdon Cliffs and South Foreland Lighthouse.

Dover Coastguard said no-one was injured during the "substantial" rockfall, which happened in an area know locally as Crab Bay.

The National Trust has put up warning signs to alert walkers.

It is thought freezing conditions over the winter may have weakened the chalk cliffs.

A full survey is expected to be carried out to determine the amount and length of cliff that collapsed on Friday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-1736639 6
by the looks of things there are still a few more areas at risk of collapse in the vid you can see some other sunken areas that appear likly to be getting ready to fall
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I win at everything. At least, if it concerns you. =P


You win at editing too!

You can slap me for this tomorrow if you want. Just saying the truth. :P
Come on guys, play nice. If you don't, I'll stop lurking and laughing.

Quoting Grothar:
Come on guys, play nice. If you don't, I'll stop lurking and laughing.
Grothar, I'm disappointed. You of all people should be aware that back and forth insults is how guys love each other. ;)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I win at everything. At least, if it concerns you. =P
A young hotshot trying to act cool? Move along people, move along. :P
How is your weather, Grothar? Did you get any rains yet?

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
How is your weather, Grothar? Did you get any rains yet?
If he needs it., I'll send it. I've been getting too much lately, and frogs are rampant.

Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
Link wow!!
I love three musketeers. Or I did. Not as much now, even not factoring in my diet.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I love three musketeers. Or I did. Not as much now, even not factoring in my diet.


I used to love 3 musketeers, I still do, but I used to also.
look at the big high off the east coast!! its not going to move at all for the next two weeks!! that why is so warm on the east coast!! lets hope this high its not there in august or going to be very hot summer!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No.

In other news, Mississippi was the most active state in terms of severe thunderstorm AND tornado warning s last year.





Doesn't surprise me. My county gets several severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings a year. I would imagine that we rank pretty high every year.

Btw, this is really odd weather so far this year.
Quoting nigel20:

What an year that was(2010 hurricane season) started off slowly and then really picked up in late august...I think we had 36 consecutive days of tropical activity


Yes, I do remember that. I also remember the afternoon Hermine pushed up through North Texas and how soaked I was trying to get to physical chemistry that afternoon.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
12:00 PM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 11:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (963 hPa) located at 16.2S 115.9E or 475 km north of Karratha 490 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 11 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is moving steadily towards the east Pilbara coast.

Gales are currently being experienced in offshore Pilbara waters and are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga late Friday night. Very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 200 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend to remaining coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Mardie and to inland eastern Pilbara areas during Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Residents of Port Hedland and east to Bidyadanga are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

YELLOW ALERT: People in coastal communities between Wallal and Whim Creek including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Warralong, Marble Bar and adjacent pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Broome and Wallal and between Whim Creek and Mardie including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Bidyadanga and Broome as well as inland communities including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as adjacent inland parts of the eastern Pilbara.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the central and eastern inland Pilbara including Telfer, Newman and Paraburdoo, the far western inland Kimberley, the eastern Gascoyne including Meekatharra, and the far western Interior.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Something is HORRIBLY wrong with the forecast for our area:

Thursday Night
Overcast with snow and a chance of rain, then snow and rain after midnight. Low of 0F with a windchill as low as -17F. Winds from the SSE at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 90% with accumulations up to 17 in. possible.

Friday
Overcast with snow and a chance of rain. High of 3F with a windchill as low as -26F. Winds from the South at 5 to 25 mph. Breezy. Chance of snow 90% with accumulations up to 17 in. possible.


Friday Night
Overcast with a chance of snow and rain showers. Fog overnight. Low of -6F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 15 mph shifting to the NE after midnight. Chance of snow 30% with accumulations up to 4 in. possible.

There is absolutely NO WAY we're going to see a windchill of negative 17 degrees, much less a MINUS SIX DEGREE TEMPERATURE here coast side tomorrow. What's going on????

17 inches of SNOW? For FORT BRAGG, CA?!!!

LINK: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/g etForecast?query=zmw:95437.1.99999
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I win at everything. At least, if it concerns you. =P


I sentence you to utter musical punishment relevant to your comment:


Quoting Jedkins01:


For this, I sentence you to utter musical punishment relevant to your comment:




Close. MC Hammer's, "You Can't Touch This!"? ;-)
Quoting Feather3:
Something is HORRIBLY wrong with the forecast for our area:

I agree. That can't be right.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Grothar, I'm disappointed. You of all people should be aware that back and forth insults is how guys love each other. ;)


Haven't you noticed I never insult anyone. At least most of the time they don't realize they've been insulted. No, I hear ya! I have a friend who I have know since we were 4 years old. The last time he saw me he wanted to know if I had matching luggage for the bags under my eyes. I love that guy!!!
617 Feather "Something is HORRIBLY wrong with the forecast for our area...
There is absolutely NO WAY we're going to see a windchill of negative 17 degrees, much less a MINUS SIX DEGREE TEMPERATURE here coast side tomorrow. What's going on????
17 inches of SNOW? For FORT BRAGG, CA?!!!
"

Welcome to the World Wide Weirding
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Close. MC Hammer's, "You Can't Touch This!"? ;-)


Family blog, Rookie, family blog.
Quoting Grothar:


Family blog, Rookie, family blog.


True. No family should be subjected to MC Hammer. ... That is why I did not post the video. ;-)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Close. MC Hammer's, "You Can't Touch This!"? ;-)



I don't know, I think what I just posted takes the cake.
Quoting Grothar:


Haven't you noticed I never insult anyone. At least most of the time they don't realize they've been insulted. No, I hear ya! I have a friend who I have know since we were 4 years old. The last time he saw me he wanted to know if I had matching luggage for the bags under my eyes. I love that guy!!!


I have resorted to using the bags under my eyes for my luggage. sigh
Quoting amydiamond:

The spam blog is three blogs over and to the right another two blogs.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST March 16 2012
================================================= ===

A Tropical Low, 1000 hPa, is located near 16.9S 136.0E, about 100 km south southwest of Borroloola at 9:30am CST on 16th March, moving to the east at approximately 15 km/h. The low is expected to continue moving east and may develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves into the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate
Out for the night. I have to go unpack my bags. ;-)

Do you need any help with yours, Grothar?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Out for the night. I have to go unpack my bags. ;-)

Do you need any help with yours, Grothar?


My bags are fine thank you.
Quoting docrod:

Light rain here today, just enough.

BTW - I have seen the northern lights twice in my life - Once in Iowa back in the 1960's and once in Florida (Levy County - Cheifland) in November 2003 during the fall star party held there annually.
oh wow, that must have been awesome!!
Cyclone Lua has gone a crazy path getting to where she is now. Going to be a big one, luckily sparsely populated ( I know, still some in harm's way )
Does anyone know where in Tampa Fla. this is?
Link
Quoting ktymisty:
Cyclone Lua has gone a crazy path getting to where she is now. Going to be a big one, luckily sparsely populated ( I know, still some in harm's way )


Pilbara residents brace for cyclone

PILBARA residents are bunkering down in preparation for tropical cyclone Lua, which is expected to hit Australia's northwest coast tomorrow morning.

Pardoo Roadhouse, Tavern and Caravan Park, about 160km east of Port Hedland along the Great Northern Highway, is bracing for a direct hit from the category 3 system.

Manager Janet Robb said the caravan park had been evacuated and she and partner Ian Badger were closing up today after a yellow alert was declared by Fire and Emergency Services.

"We've been through this a couple of times before, but probably not as bad as this will be,'' Ms Robb said.

She said they would "lock the doors and stay inside'' while the cyclone blew over.

"Hopefully that's all we have to do. Otherwise we have a sea container to go into if it gets really bad,'' she said.

About 150km east of Pardoo, John and Robyn Forrester were preparing thousands of head of cattle at Wallal Downs Station.

Mrs Forrester said she had vivid memories of cyclone Laurence hitting the region in December 2009 with winds of up to 285km/h.

"We've seen the evidence of what can happen, having been here after Laurence, so it's really important to take all precautions but not to panic, because we all know how unpredictable they can be.

"You fear for the animals,'' she said.

"It's interesting watching them in the lead-up. Our dog is really nervous, and the cattle - you can tell they know there's something happening.''

At the nearby Sandfire Roadhouse, Nadine Wunner said staff were busy tying things down in preparation for Lua's expected 200km/h wind gusts.

"We'll make a decision to close the roadhouse later in the day,'' she said.

"But everyone in the caravan park has already left.''

Port Hedland mayor Kelly Howlett said residents were busy securing property and had been told to prepare their emergency cyclone kits.

"There certainly aren't any plans to evacuate, but everyone is on high alert,'' she said.

Port Authority spokesman Steed Farrell said the port had been cleared, with vessels moved to safer waters, and non-essential port staff had been sent home.

Oil and gas giant Woodside Petroleum was preparing to reduce personnel to essential staff only at its key North West Shelf gas processing plant and adjacent Pluto liquefied natural gas project near Karratha.

A Rio Tinto spokesman said the miner's Dampier Salt business, the world's largest salt exporter, was in the final tie-down stage, while its port and rail operations were being prepared.

At BHP Billiton's Pilbara sites, the company was "monitoring all cyclone activity closely and will shut operations if we believe that is the safest course of action''.

Chinese-owned CITIC Pacific Mining has begun reducing staff at its huge Sino Iron Ore project at Cape Preston and suspended all non-essential travel to the site.

Lua was upgraded from a category 2 to a category 3 system on Friday morning, with heavy rain and winds expected to hit the region from Cape Leveque to Mardie - including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome - by late Friday or early Saturday.

Flood warnings are in place throughout the Pilbara and Kimberley regions.

At 11am (WST) on Friday, Lua was about 490km north-northwest of Port Hedland and moving southeast at 20km/h.

The Bureau of Meteorology said gales were expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga late on Friday night.

On Saturday very destructive winds gusting over 200km/h were likely to develop in coastal areas near Lua's centre.
Local forecast discussion: record highs reached yesterday....

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 15 WERE SET AT DCA AND IAD
TODAY. BELOW ARE THE RECORDED HIGHS FOR TODAY AND THE PREVIOUS
RECORD. PLEASE ALSO SEE CLIDCA...RERDCA...CLIIAD...AND RERIAD FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

DCA...82F AT 216PM...OLD RECORD WAS 81F SET IN 1990.
IAD...84F AT 316PM...OLD RECORD WAS 82F SET IN 1990.

THIS WAS THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY TO REACH AT LEAST 80F AT BOTH
DCA AND IAD. THE LAST OCCURRENCE OF AT LEAST THREE CONSECUTIVE
DAYS WITH 80F OR GREATER TEMPERATURES IN MARCH AT BOTH SITES WAS
AT THE END OF LATE MARCH 1998.


PRELIMINARY DATA INDICATES THAT THIS YEAR HAD THE SECOND HIGHEST
AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FROM MARCH 1 TO 15 IN THE WASHINGTON DC
CLIMATE RECORD DATING BACK TO 1872. IN 1921...THE AVERAGE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FROM MARCH 1 TO 15 WAS 65.3...WHILE THAT SAME PERIOD
THIS YEAR HAD AN AVERAGE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 64.7.
From RSOE EDIS

Yesterday, the New York Times published an in depth look at sea level rise in the United States. The story is a collaboration with Climate Central, a nonprofit news organization who collected and mapped sea level data for areas all over the country. The New York Times wrote:
The project on sea level rise led by Dr. Strauss for the nonprofit organization Climate Central appears to be the most elaborate effort in decades to estimate the proportion of the national population at risk from the rising sea. The papers are scheduled for publication on Wednesday by the journal Environmental Research Letters. The work is based on the 2010 census and on improved estimates, compiled by federal agencies, of the land elevation near coastlines and of tidal levels throughout the country.

Users can look up their zipcodes on the map to see what their risks are. Many places have a one in six chance of experiencing a foot of sea level rise by 2020. That might not seem like a lot, but even a few inches of rise can erode the soil and cause big problems. And there are 3.7 million people in the lower 48 states living within one meter of the coast. That’s over one percent of the nation’s population. Some places are doing things to prepare. New York City has raised their pumps at sewage stations so that they don’t get inundated with the rising water. But most places haven’t really done much.

Their interactive map is here.
woke up this morning to the sound of (lots of) thunder... gotta a series of small cells heading our way here (West of Nashville) hope nothing nasty develops. Here's todays convective outlook:

640. MahFL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
by the looks of things there are still a few more areas at risk of collapse in the vid you can see some other sunken areas that appear likly to be getting ready to fall


The collapse makes that section nice and whiter :).
Quoting JNCali:
woke up this morning to the sound of (lots of) thunder... gotta a series of small cells heading our way here (West of Nashville) hope nothing nasty develops. Here's todays convective outlook:



Interesting to note that thunderstorms are going out of their way to avoid Louisiana....
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Interesting to note that thunderstorms are going out of their way to avoid Louisiana....
.. yeah and visiting Toronto for a change of pace I guess..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I win at everything. At least, if it concerns you. =P


WOW! Come on man come down your better than this.

Sunday

Monday
morning all.

Nice surprise this morning, was included in a 5% chance for damaging wind from the SPC lol.

The good news: by a week from now, the above-average temps in the upper Midwest moderate a bit.

The bad news: most of the country gets in on the action.

heat
on the gfs, looks like this systems focus is more easterly that originally thought. Cold front makes it as far as GA.

I think MO, AR, and MS could see a bit of the action Day 5 and past if the models can come into agreement.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
on the gfs, looks like this systems focus is more easterly that originally thought. Cold front makes it as far as GA.

I think MO, AR, and MS could see a bit of the action Day 5 and past if the models can come into agreement.


Yeah could be a dangerous outbreak for Mid West & Southern Plains and then moving into the SE US come next week.

EURO
Most of the GFS ensembles resemble the Euro.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Lake Tahoe is gonna get 8 feet of snow..
653. Jax82
and it continues.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah could be a dangerous outbreak for Mid West & Southern Plains and then moving into the SE US come next week.

EURO


I guess we wont have to wonder if this is negatively titled, it will be till it is cut off.

looks like a repeat of yesterdays weather in TX today, maybe a few more tornadoes, or maybe not.
Quoting percylives:
From RSOE EDIS

Yesterday, the New York Times published an in depth look at sea level rise in the United States. The story is a collaboration with Climate Central, a nonprofit news organization who collected and mapped sea level data for areas all over the country.

They didn't "collect and map sea level data". They published *projections* for 2020.

It is laughable, given that sea level rise has actually reversed recently. For them to claim they know what will happen over the course of the coming century is absurd. That said, sea levels have been rising to some extent since the Little Ice Age, and for most of that time there is no chance humans had any effect. Further, no proposed mitigation of CO2 will have a measurable effect on sea level this century, even according to the warmist alarmists.

Also, one quick general comment on this blog entry: while weather patterns over North America (excluding Alaska) have favored warmer weather this winter, that is not the case for most of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. Europe has had a punishing winter, and snowfall is above average for much of Europe and Asia.

The global average temperature right now continues the trend of no significant warming for more than the last ten years. We'll see if Solar Cycle 24 & 25 bring significant cooling as many expect...
Byebye warmth:



No real precip on cold front but cooler air for sure. well see how this pans out.
I know it is night there, but I wish there were a web cam or two in Broome or on the northern coast of West Australia.
Looks like the whole norther coast is catching it.
Be safe.
Dang, I missed the solar comet impact yesterday.
Looking forward to the New MetEd African Dust module.
Quoting Objectivist:

They didn't "collect and map sea level data". They published *projections* for 2020.

It is laughable, given that sea level rise has actually reversed recently. For them to claim they know what will happen over the course of the coming century is absurd. That said, sea levels have been rising to some extent since the Little Ice Age, and for most of that time there is no chance humans had any effect. Further, no proposed mitigation of CO2 will have a measurable effect on sea level this century, even according to the warmist alarmists.

Also, one quick general comment on this blog entry: while weather patterns over North America (excluding Alaska) have favored warmer weather this winter, that is not the case for most of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. Europe has had a punishing winter, and snowfall is above average for much of Europe and Asia.

The global average temperature right now continues the trend of no significant warming for more than the last ten years. We'll see if Solar Cycle 24 & 25 bring significant cooling as many expect...
How are you? haven't seen you around in a while. I'd like to address you, if I may:

-"...[S]ea level rise has actually reversed recently." There's been an abnormally strong La Nina; hence the dip at the end of that graph. At any rate, climate is about long-term trends, not one-year anomalies; look at that overall graph for your answer.

-"Europe has had a punishing winter..." Not true. There was a very deep cold snap in early February, true. But overall it's been very mild in Europe most of the winter, with multiple high temperature records being set or broken. (Northern Europe in particular has been downright balmy; Norway, for instance, had its highest February temperature ever.)

-"...snowfall is above average for much of Europe and Asia." Over Asia, yes; Asia is the world's largest landmass, and it's got a direct connection to the Arctic. Enhanced snowfalls there are actually likely a side effect of the warming climate.

-"We'll see if Solar Cycle 24 & 25 bring significant cooling as many expect..." The majority of solar physicists and climate scientists do NOT expect anything like "significant cooling"; CO2-induced warming is much more powerful as a force than solar variations, so it overrides any cooling effect from a weakened sun. (And the sun has been very weak for some time now, yet the temperature continues to rise.)

-"The global average temperature right now continues the trend of no significant warming for more than the last ten years. " The temperature has increased over the past ten years (and twenty, and thirty, and forty). And again, climate is about long-term trends; basing any temperature trend off the anomalous El Nino spike in 1998 is cherry-picking.
Quoting biff4ugo:
I know it is night there, but I wish there were a web cam or two in Broome or on the northern coast of West Australia.
Looks like the whole norther coast is catching it.
Be safe.

Luckily I'm over on the other coast, in Sydney, But I also with there was some cam's in that area. Here and here are cams from Broome. Closest I could find.
Hoping someone in this forum can help me. I am looking for a video (I think it was an episode of it could hapen tomorrow) with a catastrophic hurricane going into the Tampa Bay Area. any links would be appreciated.
Quoting Objectivist:

They didn't "collect and map sea level data". They published *projections* for 2020.

It is laughable, given that sea level rise has actually reversed recently. For them to claim they know what will happen over the course of the coming century is absurd. That said, sea levels have been rising to some extent since the Little Ice Age, and for most of that time there is no chance humans had any effect. Further, no proposed mitigation of CO2 will have a measurable effect on sea level this century, even according to the warmist alarmists.

Also, one quick general comment on this blog entry: while weather patterns over North America (excluding Alaska) have favored warmer weather this winter, that is not the case for most of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. Europe has had a punishing winter, and snowfall is above average for much of Europe and Asia.

The global average temperature right now continues the trend of no significant warming for more than the last ten years. We'll see if Solar Cycle 24 & 25 bring significant cooling as many expect...


You are incorrect on every claim you make.

The map is based on the results and methods of several different peer-reviewed papers. The projections are based on the next 100 years, not the next 8 years as you claim. The map contains a link to the description of the map, including how it was made and what data it uses. And for those claiming that such implementations never provide the data for review, there is a convenient link on the side of the map description that allows you to download it.

There has been no significant change in the long term trend in sea-level rise. The latest data points from the graph are still easily within normal variance. In fact, they correspond well with the prediction that warmer temperatures yield more water vapor in the atmosphere which has been the subject of research.

Your claim about sea level rise since the Little Ice Age is irrelevant. I'm not aware of any data source that shows a significant rate of sea level rise that comes anywhere close to what we've seen over the past 100 years. The last time sea-levels rose as much as they are now was during the approach to the Holocene maximum.

The reason why CO2 mitigation won't have an impact on sea level rise is because it's too late to stop it. The climate system has a lag time of approximately 30 years. This means even if we stopped all CO2 production now, we'd still have at least 30 more years of warming temperatures and melting glaciers. There is no mitigation strategy at this point, unless we implement a massive plan for carbon sequestration, which we really don't have the technology for (and since we're still getting a major chunk of our power from fossil fuels, is rather self-defeating). Mitigation would slow things down, but as long as we're putting more CO2 into the system than it can take out, it's just prolonging the inevitable.

Your claims about global temperatures are incorrect, and every single temperature data set from ground stations to satellite measurements contradict your statement.

And lastly, solar cycles have no significant impact on global average temperature over climate scales.

Opinions and empty claims do not make your arguments convincing. The peer-reviewed science on the subject is far more convincing.
America has questions about climate change, and the USGS has real answers. In this episode of Climate Connections, USGS scientists answer questions gathered from the beautiful Glacier National Park in Montana. Questions include:

- When I come back in ten years, what will I see in Glacier National Park?
- How is climate change impacting the glaciers?
- Does all the snow we received this winter help the glaciers?
- How do receding glaciers and climate change affect the local economy in terms of recreation, agriculture, tourism?


Quoting FloridaRick:
Hoping someone in this forum can help me. I am looking for a video (I think it was an episode of it could hapen tomorrow) with a catastrophic hurricane going into the Tampa Bay Area. any links would be appreciated.
Do you mean this very well done one? The thing is, there's absolutely no reason whatsoever this couldn't--or won't--happen.

Isnt the RNC in Tampa in August?
I didnt know that the Carolinas had a chance for severity today...Wind outlook was expanded :D
Quoting AussieStorm:

Luckily I'm over on the other coast, in Sydney, But I also with there was some cam's in that area. Here and here are cams from Broome. Closest I could find.

I looked at the second webcam - the light behind it (I guess) is picking up all sorts of flying things which look like aliens or very weird bugs. Worth watching for a few minutes. Very interesting. It's 9:50 p.m. there so it is dark.
Quoting Patrap:
Isnt the RNC in Tampa in August?


Yes, scheduling a major convention during the last week of August in a coastal city in Florida is definitely tempting fate.

Jeff Masters
I remember what happened during Gustav's approach to Se Louisiana during the last RNC.

Contrary to earlier plans, Dick Cheney’s speech at the RNC is cancelled because of Hurricane Gustav.

Weather does matter politically.

Quoting Patrap:
Isnt the RNC in Tampa in August?


Yes, August 27th-30th.
Quoting JeffMasters:


Yes, scheduling a major convention during the last week of August in a coastal city in Florida is definitely tempting fate.

Jeff Masters


Well there not the brightest bunch so I'm not surprised. Any severe wx by yesterday Doc? The radar yesterday afternoon looked like May or June across Michigan. Amazing!
Quoting JeffMasters:


Yes, scheduling a major convention during the last week of August in a coastal city in Florida is definitely tempting fate.

Jeff Masters
no fate but that which we make for ourselves
Quoting Neapolitan:
Do you mean this very well done one? The thing is, there's absolutely no reason whatsoever this couldn't--or won't--happen.



Yeah, I found that one on the search but there was another one that was done by the weather channel that was pretty good too. I am putting together an exercise for some of my folks and want to add some viseo for realism and to set the stage.
Radar from Near Ann Arbor during the Event.

Note the time stamp.



Quoting JeffMasters:


Yes, scheduling a major convention during the last week of August in a coastal city in Florida is definitely tempting fate.

Jeff Masters


Totally agree! I would put money on a storm threatening the area.
Quoting Patrap:
I remember what happened during Gustav's approach to Se Louisiana during the last RNC.

Contrary to earlier plans, Dick Cheney’s speech at the RNC is cancelled because of Hurricane Gustav.

Weather does matter politically.


I seem to remember Hurricane Charley was on Aug 13. This might give the attendees an appreciation for what storms do to their constituents...
Quoting SPLbeater:
I didnt know that the Carolinas had a chance for severity today...Wind outlook was expanded :D



Yes, i am back in the wind. After i went to bed it haild north of me.
Almost rained
Quoting JeffMasters:


Yes, scheduling a major convention during the last week of August in a coastal city in Florida is definitely tempting fate.

Jeff Masters


Note that the last RNC got delayed because of Hurricane Gustav. Oh the irony.
Quoting FloridaRick:
Hoping someone in this forum can help me. I am looking for a video (I think it was an episode of it could hapen tomorrow) with a catastrophic hurricane going into the Tampa Bay Area. any links would be appreciated.


It was Season 2 of It Could Happen Tomorrow - Episode 23 - Cat 4 into Tampa Bay
Quoting StormTracker2K:



Looks like what will likely be an overdone bullseye of precip, similar to last week for Texas.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Do you mean this very well done one? The thing is, there's absolutely no reason whatsoever this couldn't--or won't--happen.



Thanks for the vid Neo, it is a great wake-up tool for those who have become complacent in the area...

It can, and will, happen again...
Quoting Jedkins01:



Looks like what will likely be an overdone bullseye of precip, similar to last week for Texas.



Possible but I do agree there will be a pretty significant rain event across TX over the weekend with a significant severe wx event as well.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You are incorrect on every claim you make.

The map is based on the results and methods of several different peer-reviewed papers. The projections are based on the next 100 years, not the next 8 years as you claim. The map contains a link to the description of the map, including how it was made and what data it uses. And for those claiming that such implementations never provide the data for review, there is a convenient link on the side of the map description that allows you to download it.

There has been no significant change in the long term trend in sea-level rise. The latest data points from the graph are still easily within normal variance. In fact, they correspond well with the prediction that warmer temperatures yield more water vapor in the atmosphere which has been the subject of research.

Your claim about sea level rise since the Little Ice Age is irrelevant. I'm not aware of any data source that shows a significant rate of sea level rise that comes anywhere close to what we've seen over the past 100 years. The last time sea-levels rose as much as they are now was during the approach to the Holocene maximum.

The reason why CO2 mitigation won't have an impact on sea level rise is because it's too late to stop it. The climate system has a lag time of approximately 30 years. This means even if we stopped all CO2 production now, we'd still have at least 30 more years of warming temperatures and melting glaciers. There is no mitigation strategy at this point, unless we implement a massive plan for carbon sequestration, which we really don't have the technology for (and since we're still getting a major chunk of our power from fossil fuels, is rather self-defeating). Mitigation would slow things down, but as long as we're putting more CO2 into the system than it can take out, it's just prolonging the inevitable.

Your claims about global temperatures are incorrect, and every single temperature data set from ground stations to satellite measurements contradict your statement.

And lastly, solar cycles have no significant impact on global average temperature over climate scales.

Opinions and empty claims do not make your arguments convincing. The peer-reviewed science on the subject is far more convincing.




How old are you may I ask? Because I am now 21(I'm assuming you are young enough to fit may statement) and when I am 50, I would love to shake hands and have a beer with you, and look back and laugh at all the GW fuss back in the early 2000's.

Quoting KeysieLife:


Thanks for the vid Neo, it is a great wake-up tool for those who have become complacent in the area...

It can, and will, happen again...


Almost happened with Charley. That last second turn saved them from what could have been one of the greatest Natural Disasters EVER.
Quoting JeffMasters:


Yes, scheduling a major convention during the last week of August in a coastal city in Florida is definitely tempting fate.

Jeff Masters


They will blame Obama for it, I'm sure. If he controls gas prices like Republicans claim he does, then he can obviously control the weather too!

SARCASM FLAG: ON
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Almost happened with Charley. That last second turn saved them from what could have been one of the greatest Natural Disasters EVER.


Punta Gorda was not so lucky...
There's a new blog.
Quoting Jedkins01:




How old are you may I ask? Because I am now 21(I'm assuming you are young enough to fit may statement) and when I am 50, I would love to shake hands and have a beer with you, and look back and laugh at all the GW fuss back in the early 2000's.

If there's any laughing going on in 2050, it'll be of the derisive type--and it'll be aimed squarely at those who delayed action on mitigation.
692. CJ5
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Well there not the brightest bunch so I'm not surprised.


Yea, like the Dems have never held a convention in a hurricane prone area. Jeez.
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