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Unprecedented Arctic ozone hole in 2011; a Florida tropical storm next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2011

An unprecedented ozone hole opened in the Arctic during 2011, researchers reported this week in the journal Nature. Holes in the Antarctic ozone layer have opened up each spring since the early 1980s, but the Arctic had only shown modest springtime ozone losses in the 5% - 30% range over the past twenty years. But this year, massive ozone destruction of 80% occurred at altitudes of 18 - 20 kilometers in the Arctic during spring, resulting in Earth's first known case of twin ozone holes, one over each pole. During late March and portions of April, the Arctic ozone hole was positioned over heavily populated areas of Western Europe, allowing large levels of damaging ultraviolet rays to reach the surface. UV-B radiation causes skin damage that can lead to cancer, and has been observed to reduce crop yields in two-thirds of 300 important plant varieties studied (WMO, 2002.) The total loss of ozone in a column from the surface to the top of the atmosphere reached 40% during the peak of this year's Arctic ozone hole. Since each 1% drop in ozone levels results in about 1% more UV-B reaching Earth's surface (WMO, 2002), UV-B levels reaching the surface likely increased by 40% at the height of this year's hole. We know that an 11% increase in UV-B light can cause a 24% decrease in winter wheat yield (Zheng et al., 2003), so this year's Arctic ozone hole may have caused noticeable reductions in Europe's winter wheat crop.


Figure 1. Left: Ozone in Earth's stratosphere at an altitude of approximately 12 miles (20 kilometers) in mid-March 2011, near the peak of the 2011 Arctic ozone loss. Right: chlorine monoxide--the primary agent of chemical ozone destruction in the cold polar lower stratosphere--the same day and altitude. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.

What caused this year's unprecedented Arctic ozone hole?
Earth's ozone holes are due to the presence of human-emitted CFC gases in the stratosphere. The ozone destruction process is greatly accelerated when the atmosphere is cold enough to make clouds in the stratosphere. These polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) act like ozone destruction factories, by providing convenient surfaces for the reactions that destroy ozone to occur. PSCs only form in the 24-hour darkness of unusually cold winters near the poles; the atmosphere is too warm elsewhere to support PSCs. Stratospheric temperatures are warmer in the Arctic than the Antarctic, so PSCs and ozone destruction in the Arctic has, in the past, been much less than in the Antarctic. In order to get temperatures cold enough to allow formation of PSCs, a strong vortex of swirling winds around the pole needs to develop. Such a "polar vortex" isolates the cold air near the pole, keeping it from mixing with warmer air from the mid-latitudes. A strong polar vortex in winter and spring is common in the Antarctic, but less common in the Arctic, since there are more land masses that tend to cause large-scale disruptions to the winds of the polar vortex, allowing warm air from the south to mix northwards. However, as the authors of the Nature study wrote, "The persistence of a strong, cold vortex from December through to the end of March was unprecedented. In February - March 2011, the barrier to transport at the Arctic vortex edge was the strongest in either hemisphere in the last ~30 years. This unusual polar vortex, combined with very cold Arctic stratospheric temperatures typical of what we've seen in recent decades, led to the most favorable conditions ever observed for formation of Arctic PSCs. The reasons for this unusual vortex are unknown.


Figure 2. Global lower stratospheric departure of temperature from average since 1979, as measured by satellites. The large spikes in 1982 and 1991 are due to the eruptions of El Chicon and Mt. Pinatubo, respectively. These volcanoes ejected huge quantities of sulphuric acid dust into the stratosphere. This dust absorbed large quantities of solar radiation, heating the stratosphere. Stratospheric temperature has been generally decreasing in recent decades, due to the twin effects of ozone depletion and the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. During Jan - Aug 2011, Earth's stratosphere had its 3rd coldest such period on record. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Greenhouse gases cause stratospheric cooling
When ozone absorbs UV light, it heats the surrounding air. Thus, the loss of ozone in recent decades has helped cool the stratosphere, resulting in a feedback loop where colder temperatures create more PSCs, resulting in even more ozone destruction. However, in 1987, CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances were banned. As a result, CFC levels in the stratosphere peaked in 2000, and had fallen by 3.8% as of 2008, according to NASA. Unfortunately, despite the fact that CFCs are falling in concentration, the stratosphere is not warming up. The recovery of the ozone layer is being delayed by human emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. These gases trap heat near the surface, but cause cooling of the stratosphere and increased formation of the PSCs that help destroy ozone. We need only look as far as our sister planet, Venus, to see an example of how the greenhouse effect warms the surface but cools the upper atmosphere. Venus's atmosphere is 96.5% carbon dioxide, which has triggered a hellish run-away greenhouse effect. The average surface temperature on Venus is a sizzling 894 °F, hot enough to melt lead. Venus's upper atmosphere, though, is a startling 4 - 5 times colder than Earth's upper atmosphere. The explanation of this greenhouse gas-caused surface heating and upper air cooling is not simple, but good discussions can be found at Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and realclimate.org, for those unafraid of radiative transfer theory. One way to think about the problem is that the amount of infrared heat energy radiated out to space by a planet is roughly equal to the amount of solar energy it receives from the sun. If the surface atmosphere warms, there must be compensating cooling elsewhere in the atmosphere in order to keep the amount of heat given off by the planet the same and balanced. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, their cooling effect on the stratosphere will increase. This will make recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer much slower.

Greenhouse gases cause cooling higher up, too
Greenhouse gases have also led to the cooling of the atmosphere at levels higher than the stratosphere. Over the past 30 years, the Earth's surface temperature has increased 0.2 - 0.4 °C, while the temperature in the mesosphere, about 50 - 80 km above ground, has cooled 5 - 10 °C (Beig et al., 2006). There is no appreciable cooling due to ozone destruction at these altitudes, so nearly all of this dramatic cooling is due to the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Even greater cooling of 17 °C per decade has been observed high in the ionosphere, at 350 km altitude. This has affected the orbits of orbiting satellites, due to decreased drag, since the upper atmosphere has shrunk and moved closer to the surface (Lastovicka et al., 2006). The density of the air has declined 2 - 3% per decade the past 30 years at 350 km altitude. So, in a sense, the sky IS falling due to the greenhouse effect!

Since any increase in solar energy would heat both the lower and upper atmosphere, the observed drop in upper atmospheric temperatures in the past 30 years argues against an increase in energy coming from the sun being responsible for global warming. The observed cooling of the upper atmosphere is strong evidence that the warming at Earth's surface is due to human-emitted greenhouse gases that trap heat near the surface and cause compensating cooling aloft. It should also give us additional confidence in the climate models, since they predicted that this upper atmospheric cooling would occur. Keep in mind, also, that 2010 was tied for Earth's hottest year on record, and the amount of energy coming from the sun during 2009 - 2010 was the lowest since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s. There has been no long-term increase in energy coming from the sun in recent decades, and the notion that global warming is due to an increase in energy coming from the sun simply doesn't add up.

Commentary
The development of an ozone hole in the Arctic is a discouraging reminder that humans are capable of causing harmful and unexpected planetary-scale changes to the environment. A 2002 assessment of the ozone layer by the World Meteorological Organization concluded that an Arctic ozone hole would be unlikely to occur, due to the lack of a strong Arctic vortex in winter, and the fact CFCs levels had started to decline. However, an Arctic ozone hole may now become a regular visitor in the future. "Day-to-day temperatures in the 2010 - 11 Arctic winter did not reach lower values than in previous cold Arctic winters," said the lead author of this year's Nature study, Gloria Manney, of NASA and the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro. "The difference from previous winters is that temperatures were low enough to produce ozone-destroying forms of chlorine for a much longer time. This implies that if winter Arctic stratospheric temperatures drop just slightly in the future, for example as a result of climate change, then severe Arctic ozone loss may occur more frequently." I might add that its a very good thing CFCs were banned in 1987, or else the Arctic ozone hole would have opened up much sooner and would have been far worse. It turned out that the costs of the CFC ban, while substantial, were far less than the dire cost predictions that the CFC industry warned of. It is highly probable that we will see future nasty climate change surprises far more serious than the Arctic ozone hole if we continue on our present business-as-usual approach of emitting huge quantities of greenhouse gases. Humans would be wise to act forcefully to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, as the cost of inaction is highly likely to be far greater than the cost of action.

References
Manney, G.L., et al., 2011, Unprecedented Arctic ozone loss in 2011, Nature (2011), doi:10.1038/nature10556

Weather Underground Ozone Hole FAQ

World Meteorological Organization (WMO), "Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002 Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report #47", WMO, Nairobi, Kenya, 2002.

Zheng, Y., W. Gao, J.R. Slusser, R.H. Grant, C. Wang, "Yield and yield formation of field winter wheat in response to supplemental solar ultraviolet-B radiation," Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Volume 120, Issues 1-4, 24 December 2003.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Philippe. Philippe has a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) of high cirrus clouds characteristic of a tropical storm nearing hurricane strength.

Tropical Storm Philippe no threat to land
In the middle Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe has managed to grow a bit more organized in the face of high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Satellite loops show Philippe is a small system with a modest amount heavy thunderstorm activity, with the surface circulation partially exposed to view by wind shear. Wind shear will remain high today, but is expected to relax to the moderate range on Wednesday as Philippe recurves to the northeast. This may allow Philippe to intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by several of the intensity forecast models. It is unlikely that Philippe will trouble any land areas.

A Florida tropical storm next week?
Recent runs by all of the computer forecast models predict that an area of low pressure will develop near Florida this weekend or early next week. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to Northeast Florida and the Georgia coast, and it is possible this storm will develop into a tropical or subtropical storm. The situation is similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974, according to the latest extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The exact formation location of this weekend's storm is still in doubt, with the ECMWF and UKMET models predicting the storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico off the west coast of Florida, and the GFS model predicting formation over the Bahamas. We'll have to wait for future model runs before we can get a better handle on where and when this storm will most likely develop.

Jeff Masters

Ozone Layer Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

whoa.. new blog.... Heady topic Doc!
Thanks for the info!!
Scary update! Thanks Doc.
Seasons not over yet!
Thank you, for the update, Dr. Masters.

The ozone layer depletion, in the Arctic, would have a greater impact on us than the ozone layer depletion of the Antarctic. This is simply due to the fact that there is very little human activity in the Antarctic as compared to the large amount of human activity in the Arctic regions.

Dr. Masters, how long are we able to persist in making mistakes before these mistakes come back to relentlessly haunt us?
Thank you Dr. Masters. It is a very scary situation for the world and mankind. Let the arguing, er discussion begin!
Surely that should read if and when? I mean the latest gfs barely forms anything
Great now Al Gore is going to be piping up again...weather patterns people weather patterns...
Bravo Dr. Masters! Thanks for putting this so clearly.

Any sense how this might affect hurricane formation and tracks, e.g. by changing the behavior of shortwave troughs, instability etc?
I read that very scary article about the arctic ozone layer yesterday. I was hoping it would be touched on today. Those are very rapid and serious changes in a short period of time. We are witnessing the result of these changes on the surface this very year with extreme heat, drought, and flood events.
big counter punch for the green guys
Thx Doc.
Quoting bswigg:
Great now Al Gore is going to be piping up again...weather patterns people weather patterns...


Here's a link to a online dictionary because you are apparently unfamiliar with words like "unprecedented," "anomaly," "greenhouse gas," "ozone," "inaction" and "science."

http://www.merriam-webster.com/
Quoting KUEFC:
Surely that should read if and when? I mean the latest gfs barely forms anything


You must be looking at earlier GFS images.. the 06Z for today actually shows two tropical systems that hit Florida in a span of one week.
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morning all are any of the other models showing this tia Link
I wonder which model to believe right now??... ECMWF, GFS or UKMET.

My fear says EMCWF. anyone else disagree?
Thanks Jeff...here we go
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Quoting kshipre1:
I wonder which model to believe right now??... ECMWF, GFS or UKMET.

My fear says EMCWF. anyone else disagree?


maybe this one Link
wow, that is scary. sorry for the dumb question but which model is that?
ok, someone please chime in again for me please. on October 10, I am scheduled to fly into Tampa at night.

unless the model runs change significantly in the next few days, it certainly seems like my flight into Tampa could be delayed if not cancelled?

sorry to ask this again because I know WxLogic already nicely responded to me but I am a bit more scared after reading Dr. Masters blog.

Thanks!
just wanted to say thanks for your response in the previous blog to my question. have a nice day
Quoting reedzone:


You must be looking at earlier GFS images.. the 06Z for today actually shows two tropical systems that hit Florida in a span of one week.


The O6Z doesnt show anything in the slightest?
Jesus reed are you talking about lala land of the 17th? your really beliving the GFS so far out?
Quoting bswigg:



Thanks I can sure use that...wow this webster is great modern technology...things they didn't have back then to know if it has ever been as bad or worse...when we have had the same patterns every 50 to 100 years throughout history...
Not like this,this time it's for real!
Quoting kshipre1:
ok, someone please chime in again for me please. on October 10, I am scheduled to fly into Tampa at night.

unless the model runs change significantly in the next few days, it certainly seems like my flight into Tampa could be delayed if not cancelled?

sorry to ask this again because I know WxLogic already nicely responded to me but I am a bit more scared after reading Dr. Masters blog.

Thanks!


At this point the chance of your flight being cancelled due to bad weather in Tampa on October 10th is extremely low.

Quoting KUEFC:


The O6Z doesnt show anything in the slightest?



look again it definately shows it
Here in N.S. we are going to get our 1st Nor'easter of the season, we are told to expect up to 100mm of rain, 100km/h winds and "higher than normal" storm surge.

Quoting will40:



look again it definately shows it


Yes in the LONG range, but it doesnt show this weekends storm blowing up into anything major is what i was saying, and how can you belive the GFS over 5 days?
shows one about 200hrs out and one about 300 hrs out
Thank you Dr Masters for this post.
With reference to your final line on the Ozone part,copied below:-
"Humans would be wise to act forcefully to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, as the cost of inaction is highly likely to be far greater than the cost of action."
All I can say based on experience is that the general attitude will be to spend the minimum now to satisfy the complainers and hope that the problem goes away.
By the time that it is realised that the problem is not going to go away the amount needed to be then spent will be too great to meet and therefore the problem will become and irreversible reality.
Sad but so often true in the past history of humanity.
Quoting KUEFC:


Yes in the LONG range, but it doesnt show this weekends storm blowing up into anything major is what i was saying, and how can you belive the GFS over 5 days?



well you said it didnt show anything and it does
Quoting bswigg:



Thanks I can sure use that...wow this webster is great modern technology...things they didn't have back then to know if it has ever been as bad or worse...when we have had the same patterns every 50 to 100 years throughout history...
must be nice to just know... silly researchers with their scientific methods and peer review procedures..
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so does anyone think the cmc could be right for the 5 day storm over so fla ? waiting for the new runs today Link
Quoting will40:



well you said it didnt show anything and it does


Fair enough, but to start beliving anything in that range on the GFS, well i certainly wouldnt.
Storm forms in 150 hours on the GFS... 150 hours isn't long range.
Quoting bswigg:



Thanks I can sure use that...wow this webster is great modern technology...things they didn't have back then to know if it has ever been as bad or worse...when we have had the same patterns every 50 to 100 years throughout history...


I used to get angry over statements like that because they are not fact based, but emanate from a preconceived bias based on politics and/or religion. There is zero science behind them.

Now, I just feel sorrow for the lack of objectivity.

CO2 as a heat-trapping gas. NOBODY disputes that. If anyone thinks that there are no consequences to increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, then they are blind to science.
The GFS shows a hint of something developing over the central bahamas in 168 hours. That's still a long way off.
In fact, the date says next Monday, 6 days from now.. That's not long range to me.
Ecmwf supports it also
Quoting reedzone:
Storm forms in 150 hours on the GFS... 150 hours isn't long range.


I would hardly call it a "storm" it hints at something but doesnt develop a fully blown storm!
Quoting KUEFC:


I would hardly call it a "storm" it hints at something but doesnt develop a fully blown storm!


So the "L" for low, is a hint? Give it up already, i'm not wishcasting, heck I won't even be in Florida if it happens, just observing.
I was presented with an interesting theory by a chemistry professor that the in-situ oxidation of O3 by rocket fuel formed a chain reaction (he actually did the equations for me) that consumed an enormous amount of ozone. He calculated (this was in 1990)that a single shuttle launch could consume more ozone than the annual global industrial output. Further he suggested that stratospheric flow patterns concentrated the depleted ozone from typical rocket flight patterns over the Antarctic.

The conclusion was that NASA was a major contributor to ozone depletion but that, since it was the darling of the federal government, no research exploring these observations was ever funded. How's that for a conspiracy theory?

2011 Atlantic season reaches 100 ACE Units making it an above normal season in terms of accumulated energy.

Season totalStorm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arlene) Operational 1.6275
02L (Bret) Operational 2.9450
03L (Cindy) Best Track 2.3125
04L (Don) Operational 1.4975
05L (Emily) Operational 1.9875
06L (Franklin) Operational 0.4050
07L (Gert) Operational 1.6025
08L (Harvey) Operational 1.2350
09L (Irene) Operational 20.3425
11L (Jose) Operational 0.5275
12L (Katia) Operational 24.8375
13L (Lee) Operational 1.7050
14L (Maria) Operational 8.7375
15L (Nate) Operational 3.8325
16L (Ophelia) Operational 18.3550
17L (Philippe) Operational 8.3100
Total 100.26
Thanks Dr. M. Safe to say that we do not know what will exactly happen with the Arctic ozone hole in the coming years, or, the medium term model runs for a Florida storm over the next week. We are just along for the ride with Mother Nature and can only watch and wait.
I have one question, Methane is produced by Volcanoes, Right. How many Volcanoes erupted last year? What about the eruptions in Iceland, would they contribute methane into the atmosphere?

Just putting it out there.
ok, thanks. I was just asking because Dr. Masters indicated in his blog that the EURO is showing tropical storm formation on the west coast of florida.

has the euro been more accurate this year than the GFS? just wondering, thanks
Quoting FatPenguin:


I used to get angry over statements like that because they are not fact based, but emanate from a preconceived bias based on politics and/or religion. There is zero science behind them.

Now, I just feel sorrow for the lack of objectivity.

CO2 as a heat-trapping gas. NOBODY disputes that. If anyone thinks that there are no consequences to increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, then they are blind to science.


Not disputing that fact...and not religious...just know weather patterns and history of the same weather patterns ;)
reed,

please give me your insight. if a tropical storm does form, do you think the west coast of florida would get it? Or the east coast/bahamas?
Given the pattern starting to establish itself with strong high pressure building and entrenching itself over the Eastern United States and an upper trough over the Western Atlantic cutting off around Florida, subtropical development does indeed make sense near or over Florida in about 5 to 7 days.
If anything develops near the Bahamas, Florida, or even in the eastern Gulf is going to be heavily sheared due to the strong NE fetch up and down the SE US coast. A subtropical system looks much more likely with next weeks set up. Now if something gets spinning down near the Yucatan or southern Caribbean, then we may see a full warm core system, but for anything to happen, it needs to be far enough south of this strong fetch. Right now, it just looks like an extended period of rain and gusty winds for Florida. Not much organization, I saw the word "sloppy" thrown around the blog, and thats a good description of what we'll be dealing with.
Quoting kshipre1:
reed,

please give me your insight. if a tropical storm does form, do you think the west coast of florida would get it? Or the east coast/bahamas?


I think the East Coast of Florida makes more sense, but we'll see. Still a bit far out right now.
ok, thanks reed but how much stock do you put in the GFS versus the ECMWF? please correct me if I am wrong but hasn't the Euro been more reliable than the GFS this hurricane season?
From previous blog:

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
nrtiwlnvragn, you posted yesterday the graphic of tropical cyclone formation probabilities for the next two weeks,but I dont see the latest at link. When will it update?

Link


I posted the preliminary yesterday, they should update that link this afternoon. They don't show the preliminary on the HTML webpage, it is hidden in the image directory.
If a subtropical storm does indeed form near or over Florida, then much of Florida would suffer from severe beach erosion and flooding issues since, given the pattern, such a system would linger around for at least a few days continuously pounding the area with gale force winds and waves of heavy rainfall.
Quoting EcoLogic:
I was presented with an interesting theory by a chemistry professor that the in-situ oxidation of O3 by rocket fuel formed a chain reaction (he actually did the equations for me) that consumed an enormous amount of ozone. He calculated (this was in 1990)that a single shuttle launch could consume more ozone than the annual global industrial output. Further he suggested that stratospheric flow patterns concentrated the depleted ozone from typical rocket flight patterns over the Antarctic.

The conclusion was that NASA was a major contributor to ozone depletion but that, since it was the darling of the federal government, no research exploring these observations was ever funded. How's that for a conspiracy theory?

That sounds extreme. 135 shuttle launches, not counting all the other Saturn 5, Apollo, Gemini, Mercury and routine satellite missions would equal at least 150 years of man made damage from pollution. I would like to see those equations.
Quoting reedzone:


So the "L" for low, is a hint? Give it up already, i'm not wishcasting, heck I won't even be in Florida if it happens, just observing.


Well yes because L stands for area of LOW pressure, or closed low, not tropical storm, or hurricane, so your telling me all those L's over the whole US are tropical storms?
am waiting for Levi's blog
Quoting hydrus:
That sounds extreme. 135 shuttle launches, not counting all the other Saturn 5, Apollo, Gemini, Mercury and routine satellite missions would equal at least 150 years of man made damage from pollution. I would like to see those equations.


It could make sense considering the chemicals being burned by the rocket fuel are injected directly into the upper atmosphere and don't have to rise miles into the atmosphere like greenhouse gases.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr. M. Safe to say that we do not know what will exactly happen with the Arctic ozone hole in the coming years, or, the medium term model runs for a Florida storm over the next week. We are just along for the ride with Mother Nature and can only watch and wait.

I don't think that we're "just along for the ride". Rather, it seems we've got both feet on the accelerator, and we're rapidly jerking the steering wheel from side to side.
And can i just say, via Water vapor loop, the front is starting to dissipitate, so this is where we find out if/what is going to happen, or if indeed anything does cut off or get left behind.
Quoting kshipre1:
ok, thanks reed but how much stock do you put in the GFS versus the ECMWF? please correct me if I am wrong but hasn't the Euro been more reliable than the GFS this hurricane season?


In terms of track, it's excellent! Though the EURO has convective feedback issues. GFS hasn't done well tis year.
Quoting reedzone:


In terms of track, it's excellent! Though the EURO has convective feedback issues. GFS hasn't done well tis year.


The GFS tends to be the one with the convective feedback issues; not the ECMWF.
12Z GFS Init



Let's see if it keeps up the sheared system or consolidates more.

One thing to note.. since the 00Z run, GFS has been resembling ECMWF in attempting to move the system into the extreme SE GOM (from the Bahamas region) before moving NW to N to NE.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


The GFS tends to be the one with the convective feedback issues; not the ECMWF.


EUROS been blowing up storms too much this year.. If the EURO would have been correct on intensity, we would have had four category 5 storms lol.
Experimental EnKf GFS from 00Z last night showed the storm developing at 144 hours:



Up the East Coast of Florida, 168 hours:



Experimental FIMY shows it in the GOM at 192 hours:





Somewhat long range models, so take it at what you think about that sort of time frame.
Quoting hydrus:
That sounds extreme. 135 shuttle launches, not counting all the other Saturn 5, Apollo, Gemini, Mercury and routine satellite missions would equal at least 150 years of man made damage from pollution. I would like to see those equations.

Do the Soviet Union ,Japan, China, United Kingdom, India, Israel, Russia, Ukraine and Iran use the same technology to launch there satellites? That number would add up to 100's
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
From previous blog:



I posted the preliminary yesterday, they should update that link this afternoon. They don't show the preliminary on the HTML webpage, it is hidden in the image directory.


Thank you for the clarification.
Only the GFS and NAM suffer from convective feedback.

The ECMWF is much more sophisticated than both those models combined.
Quoting reedzone:


EUROS been blowing up storms too much this year.. If the EURO would have been correct on intensity, we would have had four category 5 storms lol.


That's not convective feedback...
Quoting cchsweatherman:


It could make sense considering the chemicals being burned by the rocket fuel are injected directly into the upper atmosphere and don't have to rise miles into the atmosphere like greenhouse gases.

Not my field this but I am itching to know more.
Does anybody know or have access to what the chemical by products of rocket motor fuels are apart from possibly water. What do these things run on?Is it a 2 liquid chemical system injected into the engine?
The by products of the combustion I would think would be fairly heavy gases that should mainly sink down through to the lower levels of the atmosphere.
If there is provable truth in this (idea,)then millions of tons of these gases must have been injected into the upper atmosphere over the last 50 years or so.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


That's not convective feedback...


Oh, ok.. Thanks.
its hard to read intensity on a model anyways
Quoting will40:
its hard to read intensity on a model anyways



let me refrase that not hard to read it but hard to believe what it is showing.
Quoting bswigg:


Not disputing that fact...and not religious...just know weather patterns and history of the same weather patterns ;)


Then you're either in denial, or not paying attention.

Google these: Northwest & Northeast Passages opening, Arctic Dipole, Cyclone Gonu (2007), 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season, 2011 Spring Tornadic Outbreak (US), 2011 Heat Wave in Texas/OK/LA, 2005 Heat Wave in Europe, 2010 Heat Wave in Russia, and 2010 & 2011 Flooding in Pakistan.

You'll notice the words, "unprecedented" and "anomaly" a lot as you read about them. And the first three, which occurred over the last five years, never happened in recorded history.
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in the meantime the cmc shows a cat 1 for fla .at day 5
Quoting PlazaRed:

Not my field this but I am itching to know more.
Does anybody know or have access to what the chemical by products of rocket motor fuels are apart from possibly water. What do these things run on?Is it a 2 liquid chemical system injected into the engine?
The by products of the combustion I would think would be fairly heavy gases that should mainly sink down through to the lower levels of the atmosphere.
If there is provable truth in this (idea,)then millions of tons of these gases must have been injected into the upper atmosphere over the last 50 years or so.


Rocket Propellant-1 or Refined Petroleum-1 is a highly refined form of kerosene,Liquid oxygen,Liquid hydrogen, ammonium perchlorate, Monomethylhydrazine, Dinitrogen tetroxide, aluminium, iron oxide, Polybutadiene acrylonitrile or Hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene.
Is the GFS showing two separate storms forming 'around' Florida, or is it one that criss crosses the peninsula?
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Is the GFS showing two separate storms forming 'around' Florida, or is it one that criss crosses the peninsula?



the 06z run showed two different systems
The fuel we discussed was nitrogen. The compelling part of the theory was the fact that the rocket engine penetrated the ozone layer allowing direct reaction between the fuel and the ozone versus whatever attenuation happens in the miles of atmosphere surface pollution must interact with.

Another tidbit in his theory is that models of the ozone hole show that the origin of the hole in time correlates with the beginning of the space race!

Dr. Masters brought ozone up...sorry. However, I am interested in weather aspect of how upper atmosphere circulations concentrate ozone depletions originating from northern hemisphere emissions (either rockets or industry)over the south pole.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Not my field this but I am itching to know more.
Does anybody know or have access to what the chemical by products of rocket motor fuels are apart from possibly water. What do these things run on?Is it a 2 liquid chemical system injected into the engine?
The by products of the combustion I would think would be fairly heavy gases that should mainly sink down through to the lower levels of the atmosphere.
If there is provable truth in this (idea,)then millions of tons of these gases must have been injected into the upper atmosphere over the last 50 years or so.


Start here:

Studies on effects of rocket emissions on climate and ozone
thanks
Quoting will40:



the 06z run showed two different systems


Thank you.
Quoting hcubed:


Start here:

Studies on effects of rocket emissions on climate and ozone


Thanks...this confirms at least part of our 1990 conversations. All these studies are recent, there were none 21 years ago.
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Thank you.



anytime
that is pretty scary. I guess as of now, eventhough it is too early, the west coast of florida should prepare for at least a tropical storm
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gem shows 2 sep systems also looks like it could be a lot of rain in the coming weeks

Link
Quoting kshipre1:
that is pretty scary. I guess as of now, eventhough it is too early, the west coast of florida should prepare for at least a tropical storm


this time of season Fla should always be prepared
will,

would you mind sharing the time frame of these two systems? sorry, I do not have the model run to look at.

I wonder if the euro also shows two different systems. if they both do, that is pretty freaky
Deleted as redundant
Quoting kshipre1:
will,

would you mind sharing the time frame of these two systems? sorry, I do not have the model run to look at.

I wonder if the euro also shows two different systems. if they both do, that is pretty freaky



the 06z run showed ont about 200hrs out and one about 300 hrs out the euro showed only one system
thanks will
yup, nicely said
Thank Aussie,80. hcubed. EcoLogic.Everybody.
There's quite a bit to think on with this lot,this has got to be highly complex stuff and to think that its getting emitted above everything so it percolates downwards into the upper ozone layer, there might be some nasty catalysts in that lot I bet.People here are talking a lot about con trails and chem trails but this has got to be the rocket trail variety.
12Z GFS (Monday AM):



Low develops in the Bahamas region.
At 18Z Monday (150HR) is where GFS start getting challenged as to where the SFC low would move or relocate.

You can see a low attempting to close off the E GOM (as depicted by ECMWF) with another weak low E of FL:

Quoting WxLogic:
At 18Z Monday (150HR) is where GFS start getting challenged as to where the SFC low would move or relocate.

You can see a low attempting to close off the E GOM (as depicted by ECMWF) with another weak low E of FL:




drops the low east of fla at 174 hrs tho
Could anyone comment on Figure 2 in Dr M's post? To me it looks totally wrong. There is a footnote stating that the base period for the data is 1981 to 2010, so as the graph runs from 1979 to 2010, there should be pretty much equal negative deviation as positive, but there are 21 years with below average temperature and only 8 (including 1979 and 80) above it. Visually, it appears that the baseline average should be lower. Have I missed anything?
So question...

Could tat high east of Philippe catch it and make the system move westward for a longer period of time than previously thought?

Quoting will40:



drops the low east of fla at 174 hrs tho


Indeed... as its energy gets absorbed by the GOM low as ECMWF is hinting:



Based on obs from ECMWF and GFS runs... looks like ECMWF might be leading in depicting the evolving event.
Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed... as its energy gets absorbed by the GOM low as ECMWF is hinting:



Based on obs from ECMWF and GFS runs... looks like ECMWF might be leading in depicting the evolving event.


yup in the panhandle at 204 hrs
west of VA at 228 and fast mover on this run

GFS has done better than the EURO this year.

Last year Euro was better.
Quoting reedzone:


In terms of track, it's excellent! Though the EURO has convective feedback issues. GFS hasn't done well tis year.

Ecologic~ NASA has done some studies on shuttle & rocket exhaust. One took measurements of the shuttle launch it just launched on. Another was a rocket launched from Va that also dove into why launches can cause Noctilucent cloud. There was some others. I could have followed it alot better, was a big problem environmentally. But even to a rocket launch junky it's pretty obvious they've already changed up some fuels & as far as the shuttle..it's been done away with.
GW-------- get out the check book and you can give the people what they want... if not we can make it the way you want it sad very say and the tax payers money goes for all the BS
23.7n56.4w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Phillipe's_4Oct_12pmGMT_ATCF
23.8n56.5w, 23.7n57.7w, 23.7n588w are now the most recent positions*
Starting 3Oct_12pmGMT and ending 4Oct_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 4Oct_12pmGMT*,
the island dot at 21.832n71.799w-MDS is the endpoint of the 4Oct_6amGMT*
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
the island blob at 18.231n65.593w-FAJ is the same for the 4Oct_12amGMT*,
and the island blob at 18.254n63.024w-AXA is the same for the 3Oct_6pmGMT*.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 11.7mph(18.8k/h) on a heading of 270.2degrees(W)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passing ~1.4miles(2.2kilometres) north of CrookedIsland,Bahamas ~3days8hours from now

To see the full tree of staightline projections and other info, copy&paste 24.9n54.8w-24.3n55.6w, 24.9n54.8w-18.254n63.024w, axa, 24.3n55.6w-23.8n56.5w, 24.3n55.6w-18.231n65.593w, faj, 23.8n56.5w-23.7n57.7w, 23.8n56.5w-21.832n71.799w, mds, 23.7n57.7w-23.7n58.8w, 23.7n57.7w-22.85n74.346w, pwn into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 4Oct_12amGMT

* Since there is a 12hour gap since the last mapping, all straightline projections have been freshly derived from the newest set of ATCF position coordinates.
I always listen to this website. This is from yesterday, explaining the tropics. He will have another one this afternoon. He has a good forecast for the expected systems.


Link
Levi,

good morning and thanks as always for your update.

so, I know it is too early to say if something sub tropical or tropical occurs in nature, but by looking at the upper air environment and the dynamics currently and in the future 6-7 days from now, would you say storm formation is more likely around the Bahamas (as depicted by the GFS) or EGOM, near west coast of Florida (shown by Euro)?

I ask because I am scheduled to fly into Tampa around 9:00 at night on Monday, October 10 and am little nervous my flight could be delayed or cancelled.

thanks!
The NAM at 84 hours has a low forming in the FL Straits.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Do the Soviet Union ,Japan, China, United Kingdom, India, Israel, Russia, Ukraine and Iran use the same technology to launch there satellites? That number would add up to 100's
True..Those factories we have around the world belch out all kinds of toxic garbage. It is a shame to think that space programs that teach us so much could be responsible for so much damage to the atmosphere.
what is with the drastic u-turn of phillippe? and will his outflow possibly effect the coming low being predicted?
12Z NGP

Starting to shift W... more in line with ECMWF and now GFS.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I have one question, Methane is produced by Volcanoes, Right. How many Volcanoes erupted last year? What about the eruptions in Iceland, would they contribute methane into the atmosphere?

Just putting it out there.


Probably much more methane produced by cows and loss of tundra than one volcano.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I have one question, Methane is produced by Volcanoes, Right. How many Volcanoes erupted last year? What about the eruptions in Iceland, would they contribute methane into the atmosphere?

Just putting it out there.


I don't know about the volcanoes, but cow flatulence has been cited as a source of atmospheric methane. Maybe we can tell the cows to stop farting so we can save the ozone layer! :-0
The consequences of our release of huge quantities of greenhouse gases just keep piling up. We are learning more and more about what these gases are directly and indirectly doing to the atmosphere and surface of the earth and yet no action is being undertaken. This is haunting to say the least...

Is it because the information isn't making its way to political leaders? Is it because the education of climate change in schools is not forcefully pressed enough?
I'd say both.

Sadly, action will probably only be taken when much damage has been caused. However, to think that we will only step up when it's too late is irrational in my opinion. No matter how much damage is caused, it will never be irreversible. Still, this is great cause for concern for anyone with shreds of logistics.
The Iceland volcano that stopped all the air traffic for a week or two was the first carbon neutral volcano eruption. So that gives you an idea of the volume of carbon emitted. About two weeks of transatlantic air travel.
A fraction of that would be methane. Does that bring it down to a human scale?
Quoting AussieStorm:
I have one question, Methane is produced by Volcanoes, Right. How many Volcanoes erupted last year? What about the eruptions in Iceland, would they contribute methane into the atmosphere?

Just putting it out there.


Also methane bubbles up from the sea bed in the Bahamas constantly. But cows also produce methane.

Every animal produces carbon dioxide and well as Volcano's. Man and their machines do it as well.

So who is to blame the most?

But consider this, without the rockets putting satellites up into space, would we know as much as we do about the atmosphere? Even though what we do know is miniscule.
Quoting carcar1967:


Also methane bubbles up from the sea bed in the Bahamas constantly. But cows also produce methane.

Every animal produces carbon dioxide and well as Volcano's. Man and their machines do it as well.

So who is to blame the most?

But consider this, without the rockets putting satellites up into space, would we know as much as we do about the atmosphere? Even though what we do know is miniscule.


In the long run, I think tundra loss may be the biggest culprit in methane production. Atmospheric methane sources: Alaskan tundra bogs, an alpine fen, and a subarctic boreal marsh.

Tellus B

Volume 38B, Issue 1, pages 1–10, February 1986
and, as you can see this is not new information but 25 years old.
Actually, number one generator of methane is the oceans. All that decarying organic matter (fish leftovers, plant biomass, etc.) is a methane factory. But this also gets into that discussion of global temperatures and the ability for the oceans to retain atmospheric CO2 disolved into the waters. Warmer oceans hold less CO2. The decomposition process produces (roughly) 40% CO2 and 60% CH4, but recall that as a greenhouse gas that CH4 has 22-24 times the greenhouse potential of CO2.

If I recall, volcanoes are more likely to contribute sulfur oxides which are bad for the atmosphere but they also contribute particulate matter which does a very good job of cooling the atmosphere.
Quoting carcar1967:


Also methane bubbles up from the sea bed in the Bahamas constantly. But cows also produce methane.

Every animal produces carbon dioxide and well as Volcano's. Man and their machines do it as well.

So who is to blame the most?

But consider this, without the rockets putting satellites up into space, would we know as much as we do about the atmosphere? Even though what we do know is miniscule.


All of these are natural and not under our control. The release of CO2 from cars, the production of oil, harmful gases from factories worldwide, coal-fired power plants and others are all under our control however and should be frowned upon. I'm pretty sure, and I think most can agree that we have the resources and technology to significantly reduce emissions. Why is not happening? Money mostly. Money is worth more than our precious earth? seems to be that way. Quite sad when you think about it...
122. Bogon

Humans would be wise to act forcefully to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, as the cost of inaction is highly likely to be far greater than the cost of action.

Humans would be wise to heed this message, but most of them won't. Silly humans.

Does the human species deserve the sobriquet "intelligent life"? That remains to be seen. If humans don't drive themselves to extinction within the next few generations, it won't be for lack of trying.
Quoting WxLogic:
12Z NGP

Starting to shift W... more in line with ECMWF and now GFS.
A possible major hurricane in the Florida Straits?..GFS..Link
To look on the bright side of things... Ozone is also an insulator. With the loss of ozone, won't the arctic be cooler this winter and increase the sea ice faster?

If the arctic was so cold this year to covert the chlorine molecules to ozone eaters, why didn't the sea ice recover to average areas, instead of starting summer below 2007 areas? It is still very low but less ridiculously low (near 2007 areas). There is less September ice in 2011 than 2010. Were the cold temperatures and vortex only aloft?
Quoting hydrus:
A possible major hurricane in the Florida Straits?..GFS..Link


I wouldn't go with major but a TD/minimal STS.
Quoting SteveDa1:


All of these are natural and not under our control. The release of CO2 from cars, the production of oil, harmful gases from factories worldwide, coal-fired power plants and others are all under our control however and should be frowned upon. I'm pretty sure, and I think most can agree that we have the resources and technology to significantly reduce emissions. Why is not happening? Money mostly. Money is worth more than our precious earth? seems to be that way. Quite sad when you think about it...


In some areas I definitely agree. But everything we buy requires OIL and its products to get from one place to another. Battery powered or solar powered, vehicles, of any kind, are not efficient enough to be practical.

Does any one know of a fully electric combine out there?
What I am trying to say is that we definitely should be looking for other alternatives to fossil fuels. But you cannot get rid of oil at the snap of your finger whether we like it or not.
128. Bogon
Quoting help4u:
Post 122 you are right on over 40 million abortions a year! We will kill ourselves off.

Nope, that's not even a drop in the bucket. The population continues to rise, which is a big part of the problem.
Quoting WxLogic:


I wouldn't go with major but a TD/minimal STS.
The only reason I said major is if the system moved W-NW through the straits into the gulf. Which is possible. I should have worded differently..:)
Quoting hydrus:
The only reason I said major is if the system moved W-NW through the straits into the gulf. Which is possible. I should have worded differently..:)


:) if it avoids land interaction it could get pretty deep.
12Z CMC basically just like GFS but happening in the GOM with an inverse depiction.



GFS has the weaker low E of FL while CMC is on the GOM end. Interesting flip of events with CMC, but looking at the overall picture it appears E GOM is the prime spot as energy lifts from the NW Carib north to the E GOM.
this is what I say about this possible tropical development. Yes it goin ta happen, track wise I say it would be something like Paloma '08 and Michelle '01, except for that right turn that they did. with this one I expect it to continue to move N to S Fl strength I think this may become another major so I will also say anyone from: Honduras, Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Yucatan, Cuba, Florida, and NW Bahamas should keep a very close eye on this
134. Bogon
Quoting help4u:
Post 128 maybe the government(UN) could require mandatory abortions world wide for 5 years that would decrease alot of people and possibly save mankind.We can only hope we can continue down this path.

Your suggestion would be a step in the right direction, except that the UN has no power to impose or enforce such an action. People wouldn't stand for it in any case.
" UV-B radiation causes skin damage that can lead to cancer"

Wrong! Well... Not exactly.

Where do we get vitamin D from? UVB. How many IU of vitamin D? For caucausians, 10,000-20,000 IU of vitamin D after 30 minutes of sunbathing without sunblock during warm months. Compare that to only 100 IU of vitamin D in a cup of milk. For blacks, it takes 6-10 times longer to produce same amount of vitamin D so that's why practically every one of blacks is deficient in vitamin D. Even CDC knows this but is ignoring it anyway. http://naturalnews.com/032202_vitamin_D_deficiency _disease.html

The key is moderation. The problem is that everything we know is vastly outdated and thanks to sun scare, we now have a widespread vitamin d deficiency.

Sorry Dr. Masters but you should visit www.vitaminDcouncil.org and www.grassrootshealth.net for much more accurate information on vitamin D and UVB.

Oh by the way, are anyone aware that proper dosage of vitamin D greatly cut down risk of getting at least one of 18 different cancers including melanoma skin cancer? Ironic, isn't it? It also cuts down flu, cold, asthma, allergies, and many, many more.

Keep it in mind... Vitamin D isn't really a vitamin but a prohormone produced in the skin when exposed to the sun. Much more than you'd ever find in food. Your body converts vitamin D into a powerful steroid hormone that acts as gene regulator or maintenance/repair DNA hormone.

Quoting WxLogic:
12Z CMC basically just like GFS but happening in the GOM with an inverse depiction.



GFS has the weaker low E of FL while CMC is on the GOM end. Interesting flip of events with CMC, but looking at the overall picture it appears E GOM is the prime spot as energy lifts from the NW Carib north to the E GOM.
You can expect a stronger vortex to form on the western side of a surge of southerly winds.
12Z ECMWF @120HR:

help4u: abortion is NOT a weather topic. Move elsewhere or change discussion. Reported to admin and POOF.
I am more concerned about Florida and the possible nasty weather that may be on my doorstep in the next few days. Lord, I hope not another Wilma!
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
You can expect a stronger vortex to form on the western side of a surge of southerly winds.


Given the expected blocking pattern... is possible.
Just demonstrating the very smart people on this blog!
12Z ECMWF @144HR:



12Z GFS @144HR:



12Z CMC @144HR:



Sure looks like GFS is rather conservative about the evolution of the DB.
aaahhh... So many comments to respond to and so little time.

127 carcar1967 "What I am trying to say is that we definitely should be looking for other alternatives to fossil fuels. But you cannot get rid of oil at the snap of your finger whether we like it or not.

Sure we can. Of course that would lead to a halving of the world population within a year, then another halving within the next...
...along with a GreatExtinction (ain't as if folks are gonna peaceably expire without eating everything that's vaguely edible first).

Besides transporting food from harvester to consumer, fossil-fuel derivatives are used to produce fertilizers and to pump water. And the "GreenRevolution" crops are HIGHly dependent on hyperMASSIVE amounts of fertilizer and water to produce the yields we depend upon.
Umm.....Where are those people who said the GOM was shut down for this hurricane season? LOL
Quoting Motoko:


I don't know about the volcanoes, but cow flatulence has been cited as a source of atmospheric methane. Maybe we can tell the cows to stop farting so we can save the ozone layer! :-0
As long as you do not poke your rear end into the stratosphere! :-)
146. JLPR2
Keeping an eye on this one south of the CV islands.

Eh... It's the only player in town for now, besides Philippe.

Quoting biff4ugo:
To look on the bright side of things... Ozone is also an insulator. With the loss of ozone, won't the arctic be cooler this winter and increase the sea ice faster?

If the arctic was so cold this year to covert the chlorine molecules to ozone eaters, why didn't the sea ice recover to average areas, instead of starting summer below 2007 areas? It is still very low but less ridiculously low (near 2007 areas). There is less September ice in 2011 than 2010. Were the cold temperatures and vortex only aloft?
It matters what atmospheric layer you talk about: surface level (troposphere) or upper level (stratosphere), a totally different ball game for temperature profiles1 Basic weather stuff.
148. Bogon
Hey, help4u, how's the weather where you are?
Quoting hydrus:
True..Those factories we have around the world belch out all kinds of toxic garbage. It is a shame to think that space programs that teach us so much could be responsible for so much damage to the atmosphere.
Also probably junk science.
Quoting scott39:
Umm.....Where are those people who said the GOM was shut down for this hurricane season? LOL


The offshore water temps in the Eastern, Central, and Southern GOM are still in the 80s.
There's a solid chance of a tropical system affecting the Eastern GOM, Florida, or the S.E. U.S. over the next couple weeks.
Even the near shore water temps are 80+ degrees from Tampa South along the west coast of Fl.
Ozone hole above the Arctic five times the size of Germany



Published on Oct 4, 2011 by Euronews
http://www.euronews.net/

The intense cold at the frozen expanse of the Arctic has opened up an unprecedented hole in the ozone layer.

The natural shield is regularly 'attacked' at both the north and south poles, but scientists believe exceptional conditions this year have caused the damage to the ozone layer.

The discovery was made by a team of international scientists. They monitored satellite observations between winter 2010 and spring 2011 which showed up the gaping hole, which is five times the size of Germany.
Quoting Motoko:


I don't know about the volcanoes, but cow flatulence has been cited as a source of atmospheric methane. Maybe we can tell the cows to stop farting so we can save the ozone layer! :-0


Quoting Wunderwood:
The NAM at 84 hours has a low forming in the FL Straits.


right now it looks very much like depression type clouds here in the keys. take a look at the radar for key west
Just wanted to say thank you to Dr. Masters for the extremely well written post on the Arctic ozone hole, its' implications, and its' conditions in context.

Thank you.
Arctic Sea Ice Continues Decline, Hits 2nd-Lowest Level 10.04.11

Last month the extent of sea ice covering the Arctic Ocean declined to the second-lowest extent on record. Satellite data from NASA and the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado in Boulder showed that the summertime sea ice cover narrowly avoided a new record low.



NASA satellite data reveals how this year's minimum sea ice extent, reached on Sept. 9 as depicted here, declined to a level far smaller than the 30-year average (in yellow) and opened up Northwest Passage shipping lanes (in red). (Credit: NASA Goddard's Scientific Visualization Studio)
The Arctic ice cap grows each winter as the sun sets for several months and shrinks each summer as the sun rises higher in the northern sky. Each year the Arctic sea ice reaches its annual minimum extent in September. It hit a record low in 2007.

The near-record ice-melt followed higher-than-average summer temperatures, but without the unusual weather conditions that contributed to the extreme melt of 2007. "Atmospheric and oceanic conditions were not as conducive to ice loss this year, but the melt still neared 2007 levels," said NSIDC scientist Walt Meier. "This probably reflects loss of multiyear ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas as well as other factors that are making the ice more vulnerable."

Joey Comiso, senior scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., said the continued low minimum sea ice levels fits into the large-scale decline pattern that scientists have watched unfold over the past three decades.

"The sea ice is not only declining, the pace of the decline is becoming more drastic," Comiso said. "The older, thicker ice is declining faster than the rest, making for a more vulnerable perennial ice cover."

While the sea ice extent did not dip below the 2007 record, the sea ice area as measured by the microwave radiometer on NASA's Aqua satellite did drop slightly lower than 2007 levels for about 10 days in early September, Comiso said. Sea ice "area" differs from extent in that it equals the actual surface area covered by ice, while extent includes any area where ice covers at least 15 percent of the ocean.

Arctic sea ice extent on Sept. 9, the lowest point this year, was 4.33 million square kilometers (1.67 million square miles). Averaged over the month of September, ice extent was 4.61 million square kilometers (1.78 million square miles). This places 2011 as the second lowest ice extent both for the daily minimum extent and the monthly average. Ice extent was 2.43 million square kilometers (938,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average.

This summer's low ice extent continued the downward trend seen over the last 30 years, which scientists attribute largely to warming temperatures caused by climate change. Data show that Arctic sea ice has been declining both in extent and thickness. Since 1979, September Arctic sea ice extent has declined by 12 percent per decade.

"The oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic continues to decline, especially in the Beaufort Sea and the Canada Basin," NSIDC scientist Julienne Stroeve said. "This appears to be an important driver for the low sea ice conditions over the past few summers."

Climate models have suggested that the Arctic could lose almost all of its summer ice cover by 2100, but in recent years, ice extent has declined faster than the models predicted.
NASA monitors and studies changing sea ice conditions in both the Arctic and Antarctic with a variety of spaceborne and airborne research capabilities. This month NASA resumes Operation IceBridge, a multi-year series of flights over sea ice and ice sheets at both poles. This fall's campaign will be based out of Punta Arenas, Chile, and make flights over Antarctica. NASA also continues work toward launching ICESat-2 in 2016, which will continue its predecessor's crucial laser altimetry observations of ice cover from space.


Patrick Lynch
NASA's Earth Science News Team



23.7n588w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Phillipe's_4Oct_6pmGMT_ATCF
23.8n58.8w, 23.9n59.7w are now the most recent positions
Starting 3Oct_6pmGMT and ending 4Oct_6pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 4Oct_6pmGMT,
the island dot at 22.85n74.346w-PWN is the endpoint of the straightline projection connected to its nearest airport for the 4Oct_12pmGMT*mapping
and the ocean-to-island blob at 21.832n71.799w-MDS is the same for the 4Oct_6amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 9.5mph(15.3k/h) on a heading of 277.1degrees(W)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passage over Greencastle,Eleuthera,Bahamas ~4days12hours from now

Copy&paste 21.832n71.799w-mds, 22.85n74.346w-pwn, 24.3n55.6w-23.8n56.5w, 23.8n56.5w-23.7n57.7w, 23.7n57.7w-23.8n58.8w, 23.8n58.8w-23.9n59.7w, 23.8n58.8w-24.79n76.166w, rsd into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 4Oct_12pmGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Good afternoon!
Moisture's just hanging around in the Florida Straits.
Philippe defiantly wasn't able to keep his eye feature from last night.
Quoting scott39:
Umm.....Where are those people who said the GOM was shut down for this hurricane season? LOL


Nothing is there. Wouldn't be surprisedto see a system stay south of Florida and cross cuba and move thru the Bahamas.
Looking very possible that Sub-Tropical Storm Rina will form in the Gulf of Mexico early next week and bring heavy rains to Florida as well as gale force winds.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L24810, 6 PP., 2010
doi:10.1029/2010GL044548

Potential climate impact of black carbon emitted by rockets
Potential climate impact of black carbon emitted by rockets

Martin Ross

The Aerospace Corporation, Los Angeles, California, USA

Michael Mills

Earth System Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Darin Toohey

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA

A new type of hydrocarbon rocket engine is expected to power a fleet of suborbital rockets for commercial and scientific purposes in coming decades. A global climate model predicts that emissions from a fleet of 1000 launches per year of suborbital rockets would create a persistent layer of black carbon particles in the northern stratosphere that could cause potentially significant changes in the global atmospheric circulation and distributions of ozone and temperature. Tropical stratospheric ozone abundances are predicted to change as much as 1%, while polar ozone changes by up to 6%. Polar surface temperatures change as much as one degree K regionally with significant impacts on polar sea ice fractions. After one decade of continuous launches, globally averaged radiative forcing from the black carbon would exceed the forcing from the emitted CO2 by a factor of about 105 and would be comparable to the radiative forcing estimated from current subsonic aviation.

Received 6 July 2010; accepted 20 September 2010; published 28 December 2010.

Citation: Ross, M., M. Mills, and D. Toohey (2010), Potential climate impact of black carbon emitted by rockets, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L24810, doi:10.1029/2010GL044548.
Quoting jrweatherman:


Nothing is there. Wouldn't be surprisedto see a system stay south of Florida and cross cuba and move thru the Bahamas.


That would make no sense given the current setup, and the models that do develop it agree it will form and move west, not east.
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A KIND OF HYBRID CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CUBA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. ECMWF
SHOWS DEVELOPMENT MORE TO THE WEST OF S. FLORIDA IN THE GULF OF
MEX WHILE GFS NOW SHOWS A WEAK DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST AND LATER
(MONDAY) OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME WHETHER EITHER OF THESE SCENARIO WILL DEVELOP...HOWEVER
BOTH MODELS AGREE WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT STRONG LOW
LEVEL EAST FLOW AND BOTH MODEL SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE POPS AT LEAST THROUGH FIRST PART OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUITY AND PERSISTENCE IN THE MODELS. THIS
SITUATION SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT MODEL RUNS
AS CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY INCREASE IF MODEL CONTINUE WITH THIS
TREND.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looking very possible that Sub-Tropical Storm Rina will form in the Gulf of Mexico early next week and bring heavy rains to Florida as well as gale force winds.


Not surprised to see the models leaning back to it. I just couldn't abandon the band wagon yesterday cause the models pulled such a change for a run or two there. Not with the MJO headed this way..& it's so dry again here.

There's a fire now..
Philippe showing up... before going NE...

Good afternoon all.

Tiny Tropical Storm Phillipe.
Judging by the models, this sub-tropical storm, assuming it becomes Rina would have a fairly large wind/pressure difference, like a 999mb pressure with 45 mph winds. The CMC is showing a 979mb low associated with this in the Gulf, which is likely overdoing it. IMO, a 50mph sub-tropical storm in the Gulf seems fairly likely, but the gale force winds will be spread out over a large area. Very likely at this time to have at least sub-tropical origins.
I feel sorry for Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and potentially the entire Gulf of Mexico...They are going to have a horrible weekend, lol.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Judging by the models, this sub-tropical storm, assuming it becomes Rina would have a fairly large wind/pressure difference. The CMC is showing a 979mb low associated with this in the Gulf, which is likely overdoing it. IMO, a 50mph sub-tropical storm in the Gulf seems fairly likely, but the gale force winds will be spread out over a large area. Very likely at this time to have at least sub-tropical origins.

Its still too early to focus on exact intensity right now...What we DO know is that there will be very heavy rains and gale force winds for the Sunshine state for several days, and we may be dealing with a potent system in the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Florida needs some rain. Hopefully the future TS/STS can help with this fire.


Quoting CybrTeddy:
Judging by the models, this sub-tropical storm, assuming it becomes Rina would have a fairly large wind/pressure difference, like a 999mb pressure with 45 mph winds. The CMC is showing a 979mb low associated with this in the Gulf, which is likely overdoing it. IMO, a 50mph sub-tropical storm in the Gulf seems fairly likely, but the gale force winds will be spread out over a large area. Very likely at this time to have at least sub-tropical origins.


Just goes to show that you can't give up on tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf Coast region until November at the earliest.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I feel sorry for Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and potentially the entire Gulf of Mexico...They are going to have a horrible weekend, lol.


So far so good here :D it's not disturbing (to me at least) to have these thunderstorms at 6 in the morning... This front has really helped the drought too :)
I've noticed over the past few days that people seem to be getting the Caribbean development and Subtropical development mixed up together.

If we are going to see Subtropical development, it will be this weekend into next week as the MJO really begins to return to the area and the air begins to converge and pile up in the northwestern Caribbean/Bahamas/Eastern Gulf of Mexico area. Whether or not we get Subtropical development is unseen at this point, but it looks possible, and regardless of whether we do or not, Florida is in for several days of heavy rain and gale-force winds.

Caribbean development may not come too far behind. The air will continue to pile up in the Western Caribbean, releasing latent heat, and causing thunderstorms to develop. Any storm that formed in this area would move north/northeast, but possibly be shunted back to the west as the ridge briefly builds back in. This reminds me of one those weird storm tracks that move in all directions, but bottomline is, Florida will once again by under the gun, as it will all month.

Hurricane season isn't over by a long shot, and we may still have major storms that impact the USA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
250 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY).
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ONCE AGAIN FOCUSED AROUND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME SORT OF SUBTROPICAL LOW IN
THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY...WITH THE ECMWF TENDING TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT
MODEL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE
ECMWF WAS ONE OF THE FIRST MODELS TO DEVELOP SUCH A LOW...AND FOR
NOW IT SEEMS TO BE PRESENTING ONE OF THE MORE CREDIBLE SOLUTIONS.

THE MECHANISMS FOR THE GENESIS OF THIS SUBTROPICAL LOW (AS FORECAST
BY THE NUMERICAL MODELS) REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT.
CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN FAIR ABUNDANCE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND WSW TOWARDS THE YUCATAN
STRAIT. THE TSTMS IN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS ARE ALSO IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60-80 KT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT CURLS NORTH
AROUND THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE NE CONUS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN SOME FORM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLOWLY FALLING SURFACE
PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. BY THE WEEKEND MODELS FORECAST
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE INITIALLY BETWEEN 20N AND 25N. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN SQUARELY WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE MID LEVELS. BASICALLY THERE WILL BE A HANDFUL OF FACTORS
FAVORING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE MAINTENANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS. PINPOINTING THE AREA WHERE THINGS COME TOGETHER MOST
FAVORABLY IS RATHER DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE OVERALL FORECAST
IS FOR THE GENESIS OF A SUBTROPICAL LOW THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW
MIGRATION TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY NORTH.

CHANGES TO THE GRIDS INVOLVED A SLIGHT BOOST IN POPS AFTER SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MODELS...ALTHOUGH INCONSISTENT...HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL
WESTWARD TREND WITH THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WERE KEPT LOWER IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...RH...AND CLOUD COVER.

THE HPC PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION ONCE AGAIN OFFERS
GOOD ANALYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND OFFERS SEVERAL ANALOGS TO PAST
CASES. THE BEST ANALOG IN TERMS OF THE RESEMBLANCE TO FORECAST
PRESSURE AND HEIGHT PATTERNS SEEMS TO BE THE MAY 19-21 2009 GULF
LOW...WITH THINGS IN THIS CASE PERHAPS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST. ONE
THING THAT WAS NOT PRESENT IN THAT EVENT WAS 28-30C WATER TEMPS
WHICH COULD AID THE GENESIS AND ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW THIS TIME.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
One world government instituting mandatory abortions for 5 years as a way of managing the world population? Thats just sick. P.S. If China runs the world, it could happen. They do it to their own population by enforcing the 1 child per couple rule.


Now back to the weather.... Storm maybe headed my way. I like it as long as it stays weak and moves fast!

Sick but not impossible. Look up Agenda 21.
The Atlantic basin's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has now reached 100, making it an above average season in terms of ACE...and its not done yet.
Quoting hydrus:
The only reason I said major is if the system moved W-NW through the straits into the gulf. Which is possible. I should have worded differently..:)
The longer this system lingers in the central gulf or moves NW, the more of a chance a front has of coming along and shunting it ene.
Quoting Ameister12:
Philippe defiantly wasn't able to keep his eye feature from last night.

That's not being defiant, that's succumbing to the atmospheric realities that surround him. ;)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've noticed over the past few days that people seem to be getting the Caribbean development and Subtropical development mixed up together.

If we are going to see Subtropical development, it will be this weekend into next week as the MJO really begins to return to the area and the air begins to converge and pile up in the northwestern Caribbean/Bahamas/Eastern Gulf of Mexico area. Whether or not we get Subtropical development is unseen at this point, but it looks possible, and regardless of whether we do or not, Florida is in for several days of heavy rain and gale-force winds.

Caribbean development may not come too far behind. The air will continue to pile up in the Western Caribbean, releasing latent heat, and causing thunderstorms to develop. Any storm that formed in this area would move north/northeast, but possibly be shunted back to the west as the ridge briefly builds back in. This reminds me of one those weird storm tracks that move in all directions, but bottomline is, Florida will once again by under the gun, as it will all month.

Hurricane season isn't over by a long shot, and we may still have major storms that impact the USA.

given the fact that the sub tropical jet will be to the south of the system and the ridge will be to the north of the subtropical system then it will be really hard to get a warmed core hurricane from that but a good 50 to 60mph storm is possible. also model now show the tropical carribean system not moving much as a ridge rebuilds and blocks a north path for now
Kind of off topic, but I was poking around weather Obs in Colorado and found this one at Cooper Mountain, elevation 12,074 ft. Looks like Colorado and Utah are set for their first winter storm of the season, with watches already posted. I'm ready for winter!

Copper Mountain (12,400 feet)
Lat: 39.48 Lon: -106.15 Elev: 12074
Last Update on Oct 4, 1:47 pm MDT

Thunderstorm Light Snow in Vicinity and Breezy

41 °F
(5 °C)
Humidity: 76 %
Wind Speed: SE 22 G 25 MPH
Barometer: 30.38"
Dewpoint: 34 °F (1 °C)
Wind Chill: 31 °F (-1 °C)
Visibility: 2.50 mi


GFS 72Hr forecast 300mb winds
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Atlantic basin's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has now reached 100, making it an above average season in terms of ACE...and its not done yet.


With a very strong MJO pulse on the way, we have plenty of work left to do...
187. bwi
Quoting OviedoWatcher:
Could anyone comment on Figure 2 in Dr M's post? To me it looks totally wrong. There is a footnote stating that the base period for the data is 1981 to 2010, so as the graph runs from 1979 to 2010, there should be pretty much equal negative deviation as positive, but there are 21 years with below average temperature and only 8 (including 1979 and 80) above it. Visually, it appears that the baseline average should be lower. Have I missed anything?


It looks to me like Dr. Masters' accurately reproduced the graphic from its source,
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/upper-air/2010/13 ,
which means that if there's an error it would seem to be in the source.

The text section in the post on stratospheric temp anomalies that refers to the figure Dr. Masters cites doesn't seem to speak directly to the base period. However, an earlier section in the post refers to a base period of 1971-2000. I supposed it's possible that the graphic in the post didn't have the correct footnote -- maybe it was supposed to be 1971-2000 base instead of 1981-2010?
Quoting MississippiWx:


With a very strong MJO pulse on the way, we have plenty of work left to do...

Yep.
Quoting MississippiWx:


With a very strong MJO pulse on the way, we have plenty of work left to do...


And some people said in past weeks that the season was a dud because of the weak brief storms. Now look how it has turned above normal in accumulated energy.
190. KUEFC
Since when has 25mph been gale force?
What I think is scary is the idea of a shrinking atmosphere. We only have a very thin atmosphere and if it keeps shrinking we'll be like fish when the creek dries up in the summer. Interesting and admirably sane discussions today on the hot topic of our planet and its atmosphere.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I've noticed over the past few days that people seem to be getting the Caribbean development and Subtropical development mixed up together.

If we are going to see Subtropical development, it will be this weekend into next week as the MJO really begins to return to the area and the air begins to converge and pile up in the northwestern Caribbean/Bahamas/Eastern Gulf of Mexico area. Whether or not we get Subtropical development is unseen at this point, but it looks possible, and regardless of whether we do or not, Florida is in for several days of heavy rain and gale-force winds.


Not several. Only a couple of days as this gets pushed northeastwards up the eastern seaboard. Most models have it meandering around Southeast Georgia/Northeast Florida for a day(Monday) before a weakness in the high in the mid Atlantic pulls it northwards.

Expect more rain mid-late next week in the mid Atlantic/Northeast unfortunately.
Quoting weatherbro:


Not several. Only a couple of days as this gets pushed northeastwards up the eastern seaboard. Most models have it meandering around Southeast Georgia/Northeast Florida for a day(Monday) before a weakness in the high in the mid Atlantic pulls it northwards.

Expect more rain mid-late next week in the mid Atlantic/Northeast unfortunately.

Couple...Several...they are the same thing... :\
194. KUEFC
Also the mjo isnt forecast to come into play until just under 2 weeks anything can happen in that time ie more cold fronts for florida
Quoting KUEFC:
Also the mjo isnt forecast to come into play until just under 2 weeks anything can happen in that time ie more cold fronts for florida

Huh?

The MJO is returning now..
Quoting aburttschell:



hmmmmmm...Artic ice increasing in volume from 2008


Link



Wow, your link goes to cherry picker Steven Goddard's blog. I'm impressed ;)


Organized Climate Change Denial “Played a Crucial Role in Blocking Domestic Legislation,” Top Scholars Conclude

Two leading scholars have written an excellent analysis of the Denier Industrial Complex.

Riley E. Dunlap, a sociology professor at Oklahoma State, and Aaron M. McCright of Michigan State call it the “climate change denial machine” in their book chapter, “Organized Climate Change Denial,” for the new Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society.

In a note, the authors explain: The actions of those who consistently seek to deny the seriousness of climate change make the terms “denial” and “denier” more accurate than “skepticism” and “skeptic,” particularly since all scientists tend to be skeptics.







Fire warning for Bastrop county Texas right now. Looks like fire is to the North of the city currently by Herron Trail. You can start to pick it out in the last few 1km VIS satellite images.


Fire Warning
TXC021-042315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FIRE WARNING
BASTROP COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
315 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
BASTROP COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

ALL RESIDENTS ON HERRON TRAIL IN BASTROP COUNTY ARE ASKED TO
EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY. ALSO RESIDENTS ON FARM TO MARKET 2336
BETWEEN HERRON TRAIL AND OAK HILL CEMETERY ROAD.

18Z NAM @84HR:



Tight pressure gradient (25KTS to 30KTS).
Has anybody calculated how much carbon waste was emitted into the atmosphere
to make the 500 million that the govt. blew on Solyndra?
You libs slay me. You sit there and pound out all of your whinings
on a computer powered by a coal fired or nuclear power plant.
I bet everyone of you whined about Cheney and Halliburton but not
one of you has said anything about Obama and this rip off.
Hypocrites everyone of you.
200. KUEFC
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Huh?

The MJO is returning now..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Huh?

The MJO is returning now..
take it you havent seen the cpc prediction? They are calling for a higher chance of development in the carribean the week after next when the strong pulse of the mjo returns, now if i remember last year it just didnt happen and kept getting pushed back
Quoting KUEFC:
take it you havent seen the cpc prediction? They are calling for a higher chance of development in the carribean the week after next when the strong pulse of the mjo returns, now if i remember last year it just didnt happen and kept getting pushed back

But, it is ALREADY returning...Its not being forecast to return, it IS returning.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:


I am 25 miles away and I can see the smoke big time, looks like a huge dark cloud in clear skies.
I see the Bastrop fire from my house, unreal, hope it does not burn more homes, I know DC10 is fighting it.
KUEFC, what on earth are you talking about? There was loads of development that was predicted in the Caribbean last year, late in the season like now.



Looks like the best analogs for this subtropical storm is one on October 14th 1956(which didn't acquire tropical characteristics) and another on October 4th 1974. Those two Octobers had the exact same setup as we'll see this weekend. Right now I'm opting for a path similar to subtropical storm 4 in 1974.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Couple...Several...they are the same thing... :\


I mean this ain't gonna be a week long event like May 19-20 2009.:)

That took forever to get out of the way.
Noting what you say:-
199. tramp96,
Your arguments are very difficult to contest at grass roots level so to speak.
Here is my attempt at my justifications:-
5 years ago I installed a solar system that works perfectly in my workshops/garage. It cost about $800 including panels,batteries,inverter, regulator etc.
since the installation all of it has worked perfectly BUT how much CO2 did it take to make it and if I had been connected to the power grid who here charge about 20 cents a kilowatt would I have in fact used less CO2.
The costs are in my favour as I would have had to pay about $150 a year standing connection charges plus electricity use charges, so I am in pocket BUT is the planet out of pocket?on the amount of CO2 it took to make all my bits compared with me just buying the power in.
My conclusion to my own argument is that I and everybody else has to use less power.
What may be needed is a national power plan which is sustainable with penalties for excessive consumption.
Quoting weatherbro:


I mean this ain't gonna be a week long event like May 19-20 2009.:)

That took forever to get out of the way.

Well, it isn't just going to shoot out either.
Good Afternoon, Philippe is back to his old self, maintaining himself with strong bursts of convection.
Poor Florida always up under the gun when it comes to storms/hurricanes.
Huh...pretty moist ITCZ/ Monsoon trof.
Do analogs actually serve any useful forecasting purpose? Or are they purely for entertainment?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Huh...pretty moist ITCZ/ Monsoon trof.

Go watch Levi's video, he explains it.

Thunderstorms being sheared because of a cut-off low pressure area that sent a strong front all the way up into the amazon of South America, which created a cyclonic flow, shearing the shower/thunderstorm activity associated with the ITCZ/monsoon trough.
Quoting will40:



the 06z run showed two different systems


Is one tropical and the other sub tropical? Does it distinguish?
Quoting PlazaRed:
Noting what you say:-
199. tramp96,
Your arguments are very difficult to contest at grass roots level so to speak.
Here is my attempt at my justifications:-
5 years ago I installed a solar system that works perfectly in my workshops/garage. It cost about $800 including panels,batteries,inverter, regulator etc.
since the installation all of it has worked perfectly BUT how much CO2 did it take to make it and if I had been connected to the power grid who here charge about 20 cents a kilowatt would I have in fact used less CO2.
The costs are in my favour as I would have had to pay about $150 a year standing connection charges plus electricity use charges, so I am in pocket BUT is the planet out of pocket?on the amount of CO2 it took to make all my bits compared with me just buying the power in.
My conclusion to my own argument is that I and everybody else has to use less power.
What may be needed is a national power plan which is sustainable with penalties for excessive consumption.


I am all for clean tech. but just because someone says it is green
doesn't necessarily mean that it is good. They need to study the
alternatives as much as they study GW.
IWASTOTALLYRIGHT

you got anything better to do then show us how stupid you are
Quoting presslord:
Do analogs actually serve any useful forecasting purpose? Or are they purely for entertainment?


In my opinion, analogs can be some of the best forecasting tools we have. Of course this doesn't mean simply looking at any given track, on a given date, but what the overall pattern was when particular storms took place.






Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.802N 84.857W
Conditions as of:
Tue, 04 Oct 2011 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: W (280°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (116°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.0 F
Dew Point: 72.0 F
Water Temperature: 85.3 F
View Details - View History
Not that this matters, I thought I should share that I uploaded my first video onto youtube.
Stormpetrol- Had some heavy rain here today & more on the way through this evening, by the look of it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Couple...Several...they are the same thing... :\


Not by a longshot, bro.
the models are trending more east with this system.
Just returning to Dr,Masters opening part of the blog:-
I and several people I know are concerned about what he has written about here regarding an ozone hole, as it must have very far reaching effects in the near future. This type of situation is not natural as far as I can see as it has not been monitored previously, the effects may even be catastrophic for some parts of the northern hemisphere.
I have sent out links on e-mails to several people to look at the blog, especially with a note to the possible effects on food production as this year global food production may not meet demands,hence price rises ( for those who can afford to pay,)and with the problems in the southern /USA with droughts and other area of the world all we need is another problem!
This information should be given some attention by the press ASAP.
227. pmagn
Thank for the excellent coverage of the Ozone hole...
I think it's possible that we could see a hurricane in November this year.
Quoting superpete:
Stormpetrol- Had some heavy rain here today & more on the way through this evening, by the look of it.


Nasty looking weather that's for sure, worse I would say we had this year , the rain was much needed and made it feel a little cooler. I still think something might be starting to brew in our area, it just has that "look"
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not by a longshot, bro.

?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

?


Couple = two

Several = more than two
Quoting stormpetrol:


Nasty looking weather that's for sure, worse I would say we had this year , the rain was much needed and made it feel a little cooler. I still think something might be starting to brew in our area, it just has that "look"

I agree with you there, we are approaching that time of the year where potential development close by is the threat. Especially down south near Nica'/ Colombian coastline area, which some of the models indicate for the coming week's +.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Couple = two

Several = more than two


yup
Quoting KoritheMan:


Couple = two

Several = more than two


Yeah...not a big difference.

Floria is going to have several days of very heavy rain and strong winds. ;)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah...not a big difference.
No? It's clearly big enough to have its own distinction within the English dictionary. ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:

No? It's clearly big enough to have its own distinction within the English dictionary. ;)

Yeah, no. :P

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.3 1.5

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 976.5mb/ 82.2kt

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Quoting washingtonian115:
I think it's possible that we could see a hurricane in November this year.
For reasons with no justification or scientific evidence and only to disagree. :)

That is Impossible!!
Quoting VolunteerGator:
For reasons with no justification or scientific evidence and only to disagree. :)

That is Impossible!!
Formerly Scooster67
Quoting VolunteerGator:
For reasons with no justification or scientific evidence and only to disagree. :)

That is Impossible!!
Um...First of all if you were on here not to long ago I explained why I think we may see a November hurricane.With TCHP likley to remain high through late October into early November and the door is also still open for a storm to form depending on the weather patterns at that time.In nutreal years like this as well like 2005 and 2008 it is a possibility.
Quoting presslord:
Do analogs actually serve any useful forecasting purpose? Or are they purely for entertainment?
I think they're useful to some extent if used properly in looking back at historical patterns. But on this forum, they're most often overused and useless. You have to separate the wheat from the chaff. Not to mention the fact that the historical patterns may be changing, due to climate change leading to differences we've seen across the spectrum of weather events.
the 18Z Nogaps is predicting twins??

Opps where did volunteer guy go?.To a place where people are invisable.
Interesting discussions about the zone hole and AGW. Admittedly, this not out of character for this blog. It seems every other post lately is about AGW. It would be easier if we all just handed in the towel and preplanned our funeral. Our epitaph could read: "Is it getting too warm in here? Where is the moderator?" The only question is when the world ends, anymore, not if. I await the tense moment when the president admits we're all screwed. Oh wait, he's already done that, once or twice. Oops.
looks to me either a Tropical or subtropical system will affect South Florida in some shape or form , i hope and pray we get a real good soaking of rain BUT no hurricane
Quoting washingtonian115:
Opps where did volunteer guy go?.To a place where people are invisable.

We don't care, he was joking anyways.

Note: I am not trying to be rude, I am just saying that I wish people would stop mentioning who they are putting on their ignore list.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We don't care, he was joking anyways.
what is intresting to note is the NHC has not even labeled an area of interest for possible development
Quoting paratomic:
Interesting discussions about the zone hole and AGW. Admittedly, this not out of character for this blog. It seems every other post lately is about AGW. It would be easier if we all just handed in the towel and preplanned our funeral. Our epitaph could read: "Is it getting too warm in here? Where is the moderator?" The only question is when the world ends, anymore, not if. I await the tense moment when the president admits we're all screwed. Oh wait, he's already done that, once or twice. Oops.


Wonder how many computers have burned down due to the heat generated in these vicious AGW debates.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
what is intresting to note is the NHC has not even labeled an area of interest for possible development

Its because we won't have development at any time over the next 3-4 days or so.
BTW, doesn't ozone need sunlight for the chemical reaction in formation to take place? If so, couldn't the reason why the ozone seems to have a giant hole have something to do with the fact that the South and North poles have extended periods each yr w/o sunlight?

I mean, what percentage of the hole is DIRECTLY attributed to no sunlight?
Seems legit.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Seems legit.

lol.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Seems legit.
What is?
Quoting interstatelover7165:
What is?

That absolutely horrible microwave pass.
Quoting hyperstratocumulus:
BTW, doesn't ozone need sunlight for the chemical reaction in formation to take place? If so, couldn't the reason why the ozone seems to have a giant hole have something to do with the fact that the South and North poles have extended periods each yr w/o sunlight?

I mean, what percentage of the hole is DIRECTLY attributed to no sunlight?


Yes, ozone is created with sunlight. But this recent extreme in the Arctic hole just happened in the summer, and polar night didn't start until September 24th. Also, if the holes were just due to the lack of sunlight in the winter, this wouldn't be a relatively new phenomenon, but it is. It's most certainly caused by CFCs and a cold stratosphere.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042341
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 635 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Still Nothing new in TWO-Land.
Quoting tramp96:
Has anybody calculated how much carbon waste was emitted into the atmosphere
to make the 500 million that the govt. blew on Solyndra?
You libs slay me. You sit there and pound out all of your whinings
on a computer powered by a coal fired or nuclear power plant.
I bet everyone of you whined about Cheney and Halliburton but not
one of you has said anything about Obama and this rip off.
Hypocrites everyone of you.
POOF THE NEANDERTHAL
Quoting AussieStorm:
I have one question, Methane is produced by Volcanoes, Right. How many Volcanoes erupted last year? What about the eruptions in Iceland, would they contribute methane into the atmosphere?

Just putting it out there.


In general, methane is not one of the most common materials ejected during a volcanic eruption. The most common compounds tend to be water vapor, carbon dioxide, and sulfur dioxide.

This makes me wonder if you might be confusing methane with carbon dioxide. Although methane is a stronger greenhouse gas, its concentrations and rate of accumulation are such that carbon dioxide is the primary driver of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Carbon dioxide emissions from volcanoes are estimated to be roughly 2 orders of magnitude smaller than emissions by humans (~1%), and another big difference would be that volcanoes are natural and thus part of the pre-anthropogenic equilibrium.
Quoting angelafritz:


Yes, ozone is created with sunlight. But this recent extreme in the Arctic hole just happened in the summer, and polar night didn't start until September 24th. Also, if the holes were just due to the lack of sunlight in the winter, this wouldn't be a relatively new phenomenon, but it is. It's most certainly caused by CFCs and a cold stratosphere.

Good evening Angela, been a while since we've seen you.
Quoting angelafritz:


Yes, ozone is created with sunlight. But this recent extreme in the Arctic hole just happened in the summer, and polar night didn't start until September 24th. Also, if the holes were just due to the lack of sunlight in the winter, this wouldn't be a relatively new phenomenon, but it is. It's most certainly caused by CFCs and a cold stratosphere.


Please also answer the latter part of my question I posted in the same post:

"I mean, what percentage of the hole is DIRECTLY attributed to no sunlight?"

Maybe a better phrased question on my part: What percentage of the depletion of both ozone locations at the poles is contributed to simply no sunlight being present? Compared to ozone depletion caused by man?
Quoting angelafritz:


Yes, ozone is created with sunlight. But this recent extreme in the Arctic hole just happened in the summer, and polar night didn't start until September 24th. Also, if the holes were just due to the lack of sunlight in the winter, this wouldn't be a relatively new phenomenon, but it is. It's most certainly caused by CFCs and a cold stratosphere.

Angela!
Good to see you.
Quoting paratomic:
Interesting discussions about the zone hole and AGW. Admittedly, this not out of character for this blog. It seems every other post lately is about AGW. It would be easier if we all just handed in the towel and preplanned our funeral. Our epitaph could read: "Is it getting too warm in here? Where is the moderator?" The only question is when the world ends, anymore, not if. I await the tense moment when the president admits we're all screwed. Oh wait, he's already done that, once or twice. Oops.


That's pretty good.
Thanks for posting that.
The only inevitable thing is the stupidity of humans.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


In general, methane is not one of the most common materials ejected during a volcanic eruption. The most common compounds tend to be water vapor, carbon dioxide, and sulfur dioxide.

This makes me wonder if you might be confusing methane with carbon dioxide. Although methane is a stronger greenhouse gas, its concentrations and rate of accumulation are such that carbon dioxide is the primary driver of the enhanced greenhouse effect. Carbon dioxide emissions from volcanoes are estimated to be roughly 2 orders of magnitude smaller than emissions by humans (~1%), and another big difference would be that volcanoes are natural and thus part of the pre-anthropogenic equilibrium.


dang, Lincoln. you are the oldest known member of this blog. glad this discussion brought you out to post! cool pic, too.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Opps where did volunteer guy go?.To a place where people are invisable.
Right here. I guess you didn't catch the humor. Of course it is possible.

S67
Quoting VolunteerGator:
Right here. I guess you didn't catch the humor. Of course it is possible.

S67
90S may have peaked this morning. Looks much worse now but the peak was pretty for an invest..
Quoting Skyepony:
90S may have peaked this morning. Looks much worse now but the peak was pretty for an invest..

If it had convection, it would've probably been classified.
Angela's here!! Now it's a party!!!
T-numbers have come back the same for Philippe...looks like we'll see the same intensity at 11PM.
Quoting hyperstratocumulus:


"I mean, what percentage of the hole is DIRECTLY attributed to no sunlight?"


There is a natural cycle/role but I haven't seen any hard numbers on attribution.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Angela!
Good to see you.


Hi everyone -- long time no blog.
Quoting angelafritz:


Hi everyone -- long time no blog.

lol.

Looks like we may see an active October.

Your opinion?
NEWS: Climate Change March 15, 2011 - 3:09 pm
Arctic faces record ozone loss this spring
Earth’s protective layer down by half, scientists say





This image shows how large the Arctic ozone hole, shown here in blue, was in 2006. This year’s ozone hole will be at least as large, scientists predict. (IMAGE/NASA)
Quoting Chicklit:


dang, Lincoln. you are the oldest known member of this blog. glad this discussion brought you out to post! cool pic, too.


I've been a member of the site since high school. That's when I got a weather station for christmas and increased my dad's stress level by finding ways to attach the equipment to the deck overhang and the roof. Read the blogs from time-to-time as I worked through college and grad school, and now starting to post a bit more often on topics a bit more relevant to my areas of expertise - environmental science and GIS mapping. I think there are probably people on here that have been more active posters than me since back in that 2002 timeframe..
As expected with TS Philippe, no change:

AL, 17, 2011100500, , BEST, 0, 244N, 601W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 10, 1014, 150, 15, 0, 0,
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

lol.

Looks like we may see an active October.

Your opinion?


Yeah, the medium-range models have hinted at that as well, especially in the Caribbean. But, climatologically the month of October is elevated relative to the rest of the regions. There's about a 40% chance of seeing at least one TC in the Carib. this month, only around 20% in the MDR and GoM.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I've been a member of the site since high school. That's when I got a weather station for christmas and increased my dad's stress level by finding ways to attach the equipment to the deck overhang and the roof. Read the blogs from time-to-time as I worked through college and grad school, and now starting to post a bit more often on topics a bit more relevant to my areas of expertise - environmental science and GIS mapping. I think there are probably people on here that have been more active posters than me since back in that 2002 timeframe..


cool beans.
I am sure Jeff would be pleased to know this.
I hope you will post more often.
The nature of this site is educational.
Quoting hyperstratocumulus:


So there is no peer-reviewed literature that you know of that speaks about the natural and human roles of depletion of the ozone with numeric data/percentages?


It's possible that this research exists, but I haven't come across it.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I've been a member of the site since high school. That's when I got a weather station for christmas and increased my dad's stress level by finding ways to attach the equipment to the deck overhang and the roof.


I dont even have a weather station. :(
Not because I dont want one, I just have no good place to put it right now!
282. wpb
Bill gray csu forecast 70% below normal tc through oct 11.
Does that mean this blog is at least temporarily going to be about the weather instead of global warming?
Quoting presslord:
Do analogs actually serve any useful forecasting purpose? Or are they purely for entertainment?

I think they have limited utility: analogs are what you fall back on when you have nothing better to offer.

I don't find them entertaining. I also find the reasoning behind them to often be simplistic. For instance, if the upcoming year is likened to five different years in the past, what have you really told me? Each of those years is guaranteed to be different from the others in significant ways.

Sometimes lists of analogs remind me of the swaggering "stone cold locks" offered by bookies--I mean sports news services--on who will beat the spread in the NFL this week. That would be hype-by-analog. It depends on the style of delivery. With a self-involved deliverer, they might function as a form of public self-amusement.
Quoting Darryl7:
Does that mean this blog is at least temporarily going to be about the weather instead of global warming?



Dare to dream...
Quoting bappit:

I think they have limited utility: analogs are what you fall back on when you have nothing better to offer.

I don't find them entertaining. I also find the reasoning behind them to often be simplistic. For instance, if the upcoming year is likened to five different years in the past, what have you really told me? Each of those years is guaranteed to be different from the others in significant ways.

Sometimes lists of analogs remind me of the swaggering "stone cold locks" offered by bookies--I mean sports news services--on who will beat the spread in the NFL this week. That would be hype-by-analog. It depends on the style of delivery. With a self-involved deliverer, they might function as a form of public self-amusement.


I tend to agree with you...it's sorta like assuming all brunettes are psycho just 'cause my first wife was brunette and psycho.....well...so was my second wife, actually...but you get my point...
you still here press?
you guys realize that if we dont get el nino for the 2012 season then the activity will be active again :P
Quoting will40:
you still here press?


yea...what's left of me...
Quoting presslord:


yea...what's left of me...


have you seen the 18z GFS run?
Quoting Darryl7:
Does that mean this blog is at least temporarily going to be about the weather instead of global warming?


The AGW crowd claims that AGW has everything to do with weather and climate, and that man is mostly responsible for the warming of the globe. So based upon that, I would think the AGW discussion is always on topic.
Quoting will40:


have you seen the 18z GFS run?


nnooooo.....but I don't think I like your tone....
Quoting presslord:


nnooooo.....but I don't think I like your tone....


take the sail boat out wed the 12th
it shows us on the right hand side of one
Quoting will40:


take the sail boat out wed the 12th


funny you should say that....we're actually talking about taking a little cruise up the coast to Wilmington the weekend of the 14th....was gonna get serious about lookin' at weather tomorrow...You're gonna ruin it for me aren't you?
Quoting presslord:


funny you should say that....we're actually talking about taking a little cruise up the coast to Wilmington the weekend of the 14th....was gonna get serious about lookin' at weather tomorrow...You're gonna ruin it for me aren't you?


well just one run but it dont look good
the raleighwx site wont allow hot links but look at the 18z run at 192 hrs if you have it
A graph of temps in the middle of the stratosphere. Not an extremely cold winter last year but it lasted. Crazy one extreme in March, the other in April.

Quoting will40:
the raleighwx site wont allow hot links but look at the 18z run at 192 hrs if you have it


ugh...buzzkill...
Quoting presslord:


ugh...buzzkill...


we are very seldom on that side of one huh?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As expected with TS Philippe, no change:

AL, 17, 2011100500, , BEST, 0, 244N, 601W, 55, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 10, 1014, 150, 15, 0, 0,

Yeah, not much change in appearance either.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloo p.html#picture
Link
AGW theory has an answer for everything.

AGW is making the Earth hotter and colder. It is responsible for the ozone hole too.

When you try and fit every observation into your theory by saying it's complex, it's under study, blah, blah, it makes you AGWers look like zealots who are determined to make every observation fit your predetermined beliefs.

Sad!
Quoting NJHurricanez:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexl oo p.html#picture
Link


hope that dont pan out either
I'm gonna start a chain of flat globe stores...Who wants in??
In my opinion you members who don't see the adds miss some good chuckles, the adds are influenced by words appearing on the page.

Just now there is one "Selling, spare parts, service, Industrial Ozone Generators"
Good evening folks

I have not been on for quite some time but this week looks like a good time to stop in again.

With a secondary peak to the season just a week away and the potential development of a NW Caribbean system tracking to the NNW a few days from now we may
have something close to home to track by sometime this weekend.
At 20° latitude the distance to the Earth's axis is 5982 km or 5.98 million meters. The angular momentum per unit mass is this figure times the velocity of 428.3 m/s or 2.56×109 m2/s. At 25° latitude the distance to the Earth's axis is 5.77 million meters, about 3.7 percent less than at 30°. The absolute wind velocity must therefore increase about 3.7 percent to a value of 444.1 m/s. This is 24.5 m/s faster than the surface of the Earth is traveling at 25° latitude. The hurricane would therefore be traveling with an easterly component of velocity of 24.5 m/s. This means that a hurricane which is moving west at 24 km/hr (6.7 m/s) at 20° latitude would have to have a west-to-east velocity of 24.5 m/s at 25° to preserve angular momentum. This is a quite high velocity of about 90 km/hr or 56 miles/hr. If the prevailing winds at 25° latitude N are not traveling at that velocity the frictional effects would slow the hurricane down. The frictional effects would not necessarily slow the hurricane's velocity to the same level as the prevailing winds but the deviation would be restricted.
Quoting presslord:
I'm gonna start a chain of flat globe stores...Who wants in??


Since when was the globe circular? I always thought it was parabolic in shape. lol
Yesterday

Today
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Yesterday

Today
not comparable images dude.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks

I have not been on for quite some time but this week looks like a good time to stop in again.

With a secondary peak to the season just a week away and the potential development of a NW Caribbean system tracking to the NNW a few days from now we may
have something close to home to track by sometime this weekend.


yup its that time of the season it looks like
Evening Kman, good to see you.

I hope you will steer any Tropical Mischief
from down that way somewhere other than to the Turks and Caicos.

I hope we have had our share this year already.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks

I have not been on for quite some time but this week looks like a good time to stop in again.

With a secondary peak to the season just a week away and the potential development of a NW Caribbean system tracking to the NNW a few days from now we may
have something close to home to track by sometime this weekend.
You think NNW or NNE?
Quoting BDADUDE:
You think NNW or NNE?


That is an interesting question. We'll see! Also a bit curious if any moisture or energy from Philippe gets drawn into the southeast coastal mess. One run of the GFS showed that yesterday.
To be honest, Dr. Masters discussion of the cooling upper atmosphere is actually the best and most convincing evidence to support an increasing greenhouse effect from added CO2. Because it essentially dismisses the other explanations for warming of the Earth's surface. I do believe however, that the Earth is going through a natural Climate cycle, which may be combining with human impacts to create what we see. I just don't see any way to actually disprove that the Earth isn't going through natural changes in combination with human destructive effects. Either way, us human beings haven't been very good stewards of the world. God help us...

Unfortunately no matter how much we tell people the truth, most won't heed. Its just like how NOAA does what ever they can to make sure people don't venture into dangerous flooded areas, but people always do, and people die as a result.


Anyways, looks like I have something to track in what is normally a boring month as far as storm activity goes for Florida. A possible tropical system.
Link

check that out Brian
I Hate My Internet and My Computer.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
I Hate My Internet and My Computer.

And your internet and computer hates you back.

320. hyperstratocumulus 9:40 PM EDT on October 04, 2011


hopefully the DR will change the topic tomorrow morning
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Evening Kman, good to see you.

I hope you will steer any Tropical Mischief
from down that way somewhere other than to the Turks and Caicos.

I hope we have had our share this year already.


A tough year for you guys for sure but late season should spare you any more trouble IMO
Quoting BDADUDE:
You think NNW or NNE?


Way too early to determine a track either side of North for a system that is days away from developing. If it ever develops.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Way too early to determine a track either side of North for a system that is days away from developing. If it ever develops.
Thats what I was thinking when I asked the question.
Quoting kmanislander:


A tough year for you guys for sure but late season should spare you any more trouble IMO

What about the storms that develop in the Caribbean and move NE into the Bahamas because of the troughiness over the Eastern Seaboard?
Clouds warming in Philippe, but becoming slightly better organized. I think.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Way too early to determine a track either side of North for a system that is days away from developing. If it ever develops.

Which has a good likelihood at this point.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Clouds warming in Philippe, but becoming slightly better organized. I think.
Yes, and it has started to recurve out to sea.
No major systems (currently) in the WPAC?? Shocker.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
No major typhoons in the WPAC?? Shocker.


MJO left...See what it did to the WPAC?
Philippe's ACE is up to 8.6125 at 5 p.m. today. At 11 p.m. Philippe will pass Maria. By 11 p.m. tomorrow night Philippe will probably have more than 10 ACE points.
Quoting Skyepony:


Not surprised to see the models leaning back to it. I just couldn't abandon the band wagon yesterday cause the models pulled such a change for a run or two there. Not with the MJO headed this way..& it's so dry again here.

There's a fire now..


Our yearly total is 66 inches so far, definitely not worried about drought over here in my part of Pinellas County, even if it stayed dry the rest of the year. I'll take a nice tropical or subtropical system to bring rain in what is normally a very dry month, averaging only 2.67 here.


It will be interesting to see what becomes of this, after having a nice shot of Fall last weekend. People might be shocked that Florida's first tropical cyclone of the year could be arriving next weekend now that Fall is here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


MJO left...See what it did to the WPAC?

Now the only thing left there is Nalgae and a bunch of disorganized blobs. Wow.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Clouds warming in Philippe, but becoming slightly better organized. I think.


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.8 3.4
Quoting will40:
Link

check that out Brian


Thanks Will. That would be very nasty for NC. Subsidence around the hurricane would limit rainfall totals in Florida.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Thats what I was thinking when I asked the question.


The key to watch is where it develops. The tracks will vary depending on if it develops in the Bahama's or the NW Caribbean.
Quoting BDADUDE:
You think NNW or NNE?


Euro takes it NNW just West of the W coast of Fla.

The GFS and CMC go up the East coast of Fla.and one of them bends the system back onshore near Daytona. Some of my links are not working now so cannot be more specific but I like the Euro solution due to the big high that is forecast to build just off the SE coast.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.8 3.4

T#s haven't changed much...
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Thanks Will. That would be very nasty for NC. Subsidence around the hurricane would limit rainfall totals in Florida.


18z GFS has it a lil further west and would put us in the east side of storm if it panned out but hopefully it wont


Off to bed, good night all.
Philippe looks tired...
Quoting kmanislander:


Euro takes it NNW just West of the W coast of Fla.

The GFS and CMC go up the East coast of Fla.and one of them bends the system back onshore near Daytona. Some of my links are not working now so cannot be more specific but I like the Euro solution due to the big high that is forecast to build just off the SE coast.
Thanks.Very good answer.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Off to bed, good night all.
Philippe looks tired...

Take Philippe to bed with you.

Night.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What about the storms that develop in the Caribbean and move NE into the Bahamas because of the troughiness over the Eastern Seaboard?


The Caribbean system is supposedly going to be the product of a very strong high just on or off the Eastern seaboard driving Caribbean pressures down. If this verifies then that high would also serve to steer anything coming N out of the Caribbean to the NNW or NW.

That is my thinking for now. Saturday looks like a good timeline for something to possibly spin up just east of the NE coast of Nicaragua/Honduras.
Quoting kmanislander:


The Caribbean system is supposedly going to be the product of a very strong high just on or off the Eastern seaboard driving Caribbean pressures down. If this verifies then that high would also serve to steer anything coming N out of the Caribbean to the NNW or NW.

That is my thinking for now. Saturday looks like a good timeline for something to possibly spin up just east of the NE coast of Nicaragua/Honduras.

That sounds horrible :\
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That sounds horrible :\


The season has been tame so far. October and November are still wild cards.
Quoting kmanislander:


The season has been tame so far. October and November are still wild cards.

Yeah, although I believe that October won't be a nice month.
Euro this Sunday

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Off to bed, good night all.
Philippe looks tired...




then whats wake him up
Evening Kman. I was driving thru S.Sound this afternoon, thought I was heading into a tropical depression LOL.. That was some rain we had today.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
I Hate My Internet and My Computer.


Comcast?
Volcano In Siberia Caused The Greatest Mass Extinction Event Of All Time (6/5/2007)
Tags:
fossils, extinction

Scientists from the Universities of Sheffield and Cambridge have discovered that Mother Nature caused a massive ozone depletion event, some 251 million years ago, during the greatest mass extinction event of all time.

The research, which has been published in the June edition of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, shows that toxic chemicals released by volcanoes led to a thinning of the ozone layer, millions of years before humans even existed.

New mathematical models developed by the scientists suggest a massive episode of volcanism in Siberia, which coincided with the mass extinction, seriously depleted the ozone shield that protects life on Earth from harmful ultraviolet-B radiation. The eruptions injected halogen gases into the atmosphere, and produced potent ozone-destroying chemicals as the hot ascending lava cooked Siberian rocks and underground salt and minerals.

The calculations also help explain fossil finds reported a few years ago of unusual mutated plant pollen in rocks, which dated back to around the time of the mass extinction, and had previously puzzled scientists. These mutations are consistent with damage to plants by extreme UV-radiation.

Don't imagine it was the first or the last, Hmmm.
The CMC on Sunday

Quoting superpete:
Evening Kman. I was driving thru S.Sound this afternoon, thought I was heading into a tropical depression LOL.. That was some rain we had today.


Yeah, I came home around 2:45 and the lightning was awesome. The rest of the week should be more of the same. Watch for potential tropical trouble to our South or just over us late this weekend.
Quoting will40:


18z GFS has it a lil further west and would put us in the east side of storm if it panned out but hopefully it wont




18Z GFS looks like it brings a tropical storm ashore near St. Augustine.
Time for a good book. Will check in periodically over the next few days.

Good night all
Quoting kmanislander:


Yeah, I came home around 2:45 and the lightning was awesome. The rest of the week should be more of the same. Watch for potential tropical trouble to our South or just over us late this weekend.
It certainly looks like Oct/ Nov is going to be potentially busy in our area of the Carib'. Interesting couple of weeks lie ahead.
TS.Phillipe's_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 4Oct_12amGMT and ending 5Oct_12amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 5Oct_12amGMT,
the island dot at 24.79n76.166w-RSD is the endpoint of the 4Oct_6pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the ocean-to-island blob at 22.85n74.346w-PWN is the same for the 4Oct_12pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 7.2mph(11.5k/h) on a heading of 323.8degrees(NW)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passage over Strathmere,NewJersey ~7days15hours from now
(The straightline passes ~127miles/204kilometres west of Bermuda)

Copy&paste 32.281n67.050w-32.281n64.887w, bda, 22.85n74.346w-pwn, 24.79n76.166w-rsd, 23.8n56.5w-23.7n57.7w, 23.7n57.7w-23.8n58.8w, 23.8n58.8w-23.9n59.7w, 23.9n59.7w-24.4n60.1w, 23.9n59.7w-39.201n74.651w, 26n into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 4Oct_6pmGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Indonesia- Anak Krakatau, a volcanic island in the Sunda Strait between the islands of Java and Sumatra in Indonesia, erupted on Tuesday sending columns of ash and rock hurtling high into the air. The rise in volcanic and earthquake activity prompted authorities to put in place a 2km exclusion zone for tourists and local fishermen. The Indonesian Volcanology and Geology Disaster Mitigation Centre reported that an estimated 6,000-7,000 volcanic earthquakes were recorded daily during the weekend and on Monday. Daily earthquake totals usually do not exceed 100-200. Seismologists are still attempting to determine the type and scale of the ongoing eruption. -IWO

I've been flipping through different years of that graph I posted. As the surface warms the stratosphere gets colder & it shows, but also standing out is the polar vortex splits the warming has brought on so mid winter there's an added stratosphere warming..example 2008..


We know there is plenty of CFCs up there..UARS(RIP).. This is from 1994,

"UARS has seen high levels of chlorine monoxide in the Northern Hemisphere," says Schoeberl, "but with the warmer temperatures, the high levels do not last as long over the Arctic." Low temperatures and sunlight are key parts of the chemical reaction that allows CFCs to attack the ozone, he explains, making the dramatic ozone loss seen over the South Pole unlikely elsewhere."

Last year something didn't happen that has become common in the last 10 or so years~ a polar vortex split. The added heat has been causing bubbles of heat to move to the North pole in winter & rise through the polar vortex, severely disrupting it. So we had no injection of hot air up high mid to late winter..So when spring dragged on, La Nina passed peak..it was a warm one on the surface, keeping the stratosphere cold. Still doesn't really answer the question of why the polar vortex took so long to be disrupted. Hard to blame La Nina.. 2008 was La Nina, just not quite as strong. Plenty of heat at the surface but somehow stable enough not to burp a vortex wreck, allowing temps in the stratosphere to be come cold enough for the waiting CFCs to do their due.

Disturbing to see the last decade set the out there boundaries on that graph. Temps in the stratosphere seem way less stable then they used to.


Jedkins~ everyone doesn't have to except GHG as a pollution for something to be done.. There are plenty of people out there that don't believe in CFC gases & what havoc something that we just created in 1928 has caused. Yet we stopped putting that up there & I still have air conditioning & can control my hair.

Congrates on your rainfall amounts there..Hasn't rained much east of I-95 in Central FL. Melbourne, FL just had it's 4th driest Sept on record.
does somebody here received a strange mail on your wunderground account today ?
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
does somebody here received a strange mail on your wunderground account today ?



yes i got one a lil while ago
Pedring/Nesat damage may be worse than Ondoy



The damage caused by Typhoon Pedring in Luzon may exceed that of Tropical Storm Ondoy two years ago, according to National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) executive director Benito Ramos.

That is a possibility but I hope that will not happen, Ramos said when asked if the extent of the damage from Pedring would exceed P11 billion.

Ramos said the council had yet to reach a full estimate of the damage to farmlands and fisheries as well as roads and bridges in Central Luzon.

It also has yet to report the damage wrought by Typhoon Quiel, which hit the same areas pummeled by Pedring in Luzon.

The NDRRMC said 56 people died during Pedring onslaught, while Quiels death toll reached four.

So far, Pedrings damage to agriculture and infrastructure has been estimated at P8.8 billion. The figure does not yet account for areas in Central Luzon that have remained flooded six days since the typhoon left the country on September 28.

Damage to crops and livestock has reached P7.5 billion, including P6.8 billion in palay losses, while damage to roads, bridges, schools and hospitals has reached P1.25 billion.

NDRRMC records placed Ondoys damage to crops and infrastructure at P10.9 billion. Up to 464 people died in the 2009 calamity, where 37 others went missing

State of calamity

The legislative boards of Pangasinan province and Dagupan City on Monday declared their respective areas in a state of calamity, following the devastation wrought by Typhoons Pedring and Quiel.

Pangasinan has lost more than P700 million worth of crops, roads, bridges and dikes to the two typhoons, which hit Luzon within days last week. Provincial Administrator Rafael Baraan told Pangasinan board members that losses from Pedring alone had reached P583.6 million.

This is the second time this year that Pangasinan was declared in a state of calamity. Only in June, it lost P157 million worth of crops, fishery and infrastructure to Typhoon Falcon.

Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin will recommend to President Benigno Aquino III the declaration of a state of calamity in the areas most affected by the two typhoons, Mr. Aquino's spokesperson Edwin Lacierda told reporters Tuesday.

But even without the declaration, Lacierda said, we are pursuing our efforts at providing assistance and relief to affected communities in Bulacan, Pampanga and Tarlac, also in Ifugao and Isabela.

Lacierda said the President also mentioned that he had tasked Cabinet officials to come up with rehabilitation plans.

He said the departments concerned were Social Welfare and Development, Public Works and Highways, Interior and Local Government, Transportation and Communication, and Energy.

What the law says

Under Republic Act No. 10121, or the law strengthening the Philippine disaster risk reduction and management system, the declaration of a state of calamity shall make mandatory the immediate undertaking of these remedial measures:

Imposition of price ceilings on basic necessities and prime commodities by the President upon the recommendation of the implementing agency as provided for under RA 7581, otherwise known as the Price Act, or the National Price Coordinating Council.

Monitoring, prevention and control by the Local Price Coordination Council of overpricing/profiteering and hoarding of prime commodities, medicines and petroleum products.

Programming/reprogramming of funds for the repair and safety upgrading of public infrastructures and facilities.

Grant of no-interest loans by government financing or lending institutions to the most affected section of the population through their cooperatives or peoples organizations.

Only P78M left

Baraan said Pangasinan had set aside P109.54 million in calamity funds for 2011 but that only P78.24 million was left because P31.29 million was spent to fund rehabilitation projects after Falcon.

Mayor Benjamin Lim of Dagupan City, the commercial center of Pangasinan, said he wanted government hydrologists to determine why the city remained flooded even if it had not been raining for the past two days.

Sunday was a generally a fair day in the entire province. There was very little rain and the water receded on Sunday morning, only to rise again at midnight. I cannot understand where the water is coming from, he said.

Silted rivers

Lim said provincial officials had told him that even if the San Roque Dam in San Manuel town released water, Dagupan would not be flooded because the dam water flowed into the Agno River and emptied into the Lingayen Gulf.

According to San Roque Power Corp. officials, water released from the dam does not cause flooding in Dagupan because the city is not traversed by the Agno River but by the Sinocalan-Pantal river system.

Lim said the floods might have been caused by the siltation of rivers, exacerbated by fishpen operations for many years, and the impact of the July 1990 earthquake on the citys land features.

He said the use of big water pumps had caused the ground to sink in sections of the city, and the construction of the De Venecia Highway created an artificial dike that hampered the flow of rainwater into the rivers and fishponds.

If nothing is done, in 10 years, 20 percent of the city will always be under water. As of now, there are villages, like Pantal, which are flooded during high tide, Lim said.

No longer No. 1

Nueva Ecija, which has consistently topped the list of rice-producing provinces, will not be able to fill its granaries this time.

Although Pedring and Quiel did not directly hit the province, they spawned strong winds and dumped heavy rains that triggered flash floods.

The rice plants were hit by the calamity when they were very vulnerable either in their reproductive or maturity stages, Nueva Ecija agriculturist Serafin Santos said in Cabanatuan City.

An assessment made by city and municipal agriculturists in Nueva Ecija showed that the province lost an expected rice harvest of 300,923.35 metric tons (MT). At P12 a kilogram, the loss amounted to P3.63 billion.

When rice plants are battered by strong winds at their reproductive stage, unfilled or half-filled grains will be produced, Santos said.

He said that when soaked while in the maturity stage, the grains would darken.

Records of Nueva Ecijas agriculture office showed that 188,000 hectares were planted to rice this cropping season, but only about 3,000 ha had been harvested before the typhoons struck.

Of the total area planted, 154,526 ha were projected to suffer losses of 30-80 percent.

Pity the farmers

Rice plants in about 104,000 ha were in their reproductive stage when Pedring and Quiel swept the province.

Santos said that before the two typhoons came, farmers and agriculture officials were expecting a bountiful harvest at least 762,400 MT because of the good weather.

Because of the damage, only about 60 percent of that projected harvest can be expected, he said.

We pity the farmers. They will be buried in bigger debts, Santos said.
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
does somebody here received a strange mail on your wunderground account today ?


Likewise. The Goonies?
Something similar to Tammy in 2005 looks likely next week, while I'm in NY.. Figures, I miss out on the fun haha..

Quoting mossyhead:
Why do educated people say "mother nature" when there is no such entity. People get upset when you bring God into things, but then turn around and say mother nature.


Don't start something you can't finish.
MJO is days away but still threatening to be very interesting..


Shell Oil's Poll isn't coming out in their favor..

Save the Delaware from 20,000 fracking wells.

People got handcuffed & rolled over in Austin, TX at the supposed hearing with the public about the Keystone Pipeline. The same people that want this, will profit from it, wrote the impact statements & completed the final reviews from TX through Canada. Total conflict of interest. Fox left guarding the hen house..
Quoting will40:


yup its that time of the season it looks like


Wasn't that a song? It's the time of the season?
Quoting will40:


yup its that time of the season it looks like


Wasn't that a song? It's the time of the season?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
No major systems (currently) in the WPAC?? Shocker.


prob cuz the MJO is moving away to our side of the world
Quoting ClaySFL:


Comcast?


Worse than that here.... Comcast & Vista
24.4n60.1w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Phillipe's_5Oct_6amGMT_ATCF
24.3n60.2w, 24.6n60.7w are now the most recent positions
Starting 4Oct_6amGMT and ending 5Oct_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 5Oct_6amGMT,
the coastline blob at 39.201n74.651w-26N is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 5Oct_12amGMT*mapping
and the island blob at 24.79n76.166w-RSD is the same for the 4Oct_6pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 6.3mph(10.2k/h) on a heading of 303.3degrees(WNW)
(303.75degrees is midway between WNW and NW)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passage over PawleysIsland,SouthCarolina ~8days4hours from now

Copy&paste 24.79n76.166w-rsd, 39.201n74.651w-26n, 23.7n57.7w-23.8n58.8w, 23.8n58.8w-23.9n59.7w, 23.9n59.7w-24.3n60.2w, 24.3n60.2w-24.6n60.7w, 24.3n60.2w-33.488n79.08w, myr into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 5Oct_12amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
First chance I've had to post in some time. Slow blog night/ morning too. What a shame. Boy what a season. From nothing a brewing to this, that, and the other we be a tracking. Sadly I missed quite a bit of it, but life dictates certain sacrifices, eh? I know this season was devastating and deadly to some, and my most heart felt prayers go to them. However, when compared with the threat of what may of been, so far, we've all been relatively pretty lucky. Here's to hoping that the end of season throws no suprises, and that future seasons can behave just as well, or milder. Not to minimize anyone's loss thus far, just saying, we perhaps have dodged a bullet.

Coming in to the season, I thought doom and gloom awaited many. I live in Indiana, so my first concern obviously wasn't me and mine. But after all the record breaking snows, then floods, then those horrible tornado outbreaks, coupled with a major quake or 2, heck I figured in a horrendous cane season. You know, Murphy's law. All these billion dollar disasters, and cane season only footing a small fraction of that? Wow, thank god! Admittedly, I was all doom. Expected many of you to get raked, and hard. Never been happier to be incorrect.

Here's to Phil being the end. But as the Doc's blog entry title elaborates, the threat of a storm or 2 is still there.

Hope they all fizzle...
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM A
SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS NO BETTER
THAN AVERAGE IN PLACEMENT DUE TO THE LARGE CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY /ABOUT FIVE DEGREES OF
LONGITUDE FARTHER WEST/. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE
SYSTEM AS DISTURBED WEATHER FROM THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL ZONE IN
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD COUPLES WITH
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN/HIGHEST
WINDS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS CENTER. THE EXPECTED
TRACK HAS CONVERGED UPON THAT OF THE LATE MAY 2009 GULF GALE WHICH
BROUGHT OVER SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND ITS
IMPACTS COULD BE SIMILAR. STAY TUNED.




Good Morning
something is expected to happen wish it would just go on to next yr
and good morning to you too!
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.3mb/ 53.0kt

3.2 from Objective ADT.
Miami NWS Discussion

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THIS WEEKEND WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED AND
IF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG IT
OR NOT. AT THIS TIME THE...ECMWF MODEL SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND MOVING IT
TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK PULLING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A WEAK LOW TO DEVELOP IN
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND MOVES IT TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLE DURING THE SAME TIME PULLING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON
SATURDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. DUE TO THE LACK OF SUNSHINE ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOST OF THE CWA...THE THUNDER CHANCE WILL BE
LOW OVER THE AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE THUNDER CHANCE WILL REMAIN LOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE ENERGY SUPPORT
WILL BE NORTH OF THE CWA. FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT
PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

Quoting FrankZapper:
This bog has become a wetlands.

Wetlands are wonderful. I love them. Birds and grasses and fish nurseries.....
Probably the Eastern Pacific's last storm in the making...Should become a hurricane, and then likely a major hurricane.

EP, 97, 2011100506, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1138W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning
Quoting indianrivguy:
and good morning to you too!

Good Evening, How's ya weather?
here it's clear and crisp but cloudy.
Quoting TropicTraveler:

Wetlands are wonderful. I love them. Birds and grasses and fish nurseries.....


just don't eat yellow snow....


I sorta shook my head at that comparison.. wetlands give birth to and nurture many wonderful things, I see them as you do.

Aussie! Good evening mate, I've been gone a year or so.. missed ya!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Probably the Eastern Pacific's last storm in the making...Should become a hurricane, and then likely a major hurricane.

EP, 97, 2011100506, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1138W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,


What about this guy behind 97?
Quoting Ameister12:

How about this guy?

Not even been focused on that little guy....The models do show it becoming a hurricane like the one ahead of it, so it seems the EPAC may have two more systems left. Models also show both of them threatening Mexico, the 20% one before the 50% one.
MLB AFD:

...THU-SAT...BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DEPTH OF
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE DUE TO BREEZY/WINDY NORTHEAST/EAST
FLOW. EXPECT 30-40 POPS THU-FRI.

THEN AS ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEAK BOUNDARY
ARRIVES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AND MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF
VICINITY OF FLORIDA...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GO UP...AT LEAST TO
40-50 PERCENT. MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS ALSO INCLUDED THEN. SUCH
A SETUP COULD ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HYBRID
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING VICINITY FLORIDA STRAITS AND
LIFTING NORTHWEST TO NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS SHOWS THE LOW HUGGING THE WEST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST...BUT OVERALL THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN BUT THE
THREATS INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL...WINDY CONDITIONS AND BEACH
EROSION. THESE SYSTEMS ARE ALSO NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
ECMWF @ 144 hours:

Quoting indianrivguy:
Aussie! Good evening mate, I've been gone a year or so.. missed ya!

Well you ain't missed much, except all the trolls and the bans.
Where did ya disappear to?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Evening, How's ya weather?
here it's clear and crisp but cloudy.


Aussie... not bad over here. My station reporting 62F outside (good for the energy bill!!!). WND out of the NE and SPD starting to pick up little by little and Partly Cloudy with moisture starting to creep up again.
393. DDR
It's been raining heavy in northern Trinidad for 25 mins,raining off and on for the past 5 days.
394. MahFL
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
does somebody here received a strange mail on your wunderground account today ?


I got one from a nice Nigerian Prince !...lucky me !


GFS 144 hrs
Quoting MahFL:


I got one from a nice Nigerian Prince !...lucky me !

You got one of those too, gee, and I thought it was only sent to me. Also get others too but mentioning them I might get a 24hr ban. lol

Philippe
Winds from west to east all over the tropical atlantic.It's all over there.
Quoting AussieStorm:

You got one of those too, gee, and I thought it was only sent to me. Also get others too but mentioning them I might get a 24hr ban. lol

Philippe

Organizing nicely now, T#'s continue to rise.
I shall return....This afternoon.

Quoting AussieStorm:

You got one of those too, gee, and I thought it was only sent to me. Also get others too but mentioning them I might get a 24hr ban. lol

Philippe
Philippe...tropical storm warning for the fishes.
As NWS-MLB forecasters advised in this past weekends AFDs, "Staying Tuned":


Quoting NOAA HPC:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
402 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2011

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 09 2011 - 12Z WED OCT 12 2011

...RAINY/WINDY WEATHER STILL SLATED FOR THE SUNSHINE STATE...

THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE TROUGHING IN THE
PLAINS AND RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...THOUGH WITH
DECREASING AMPLITUDE. UNDER THE BASE OF THE NORTHEASTERN RIDGE
WILL LURK A SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z GFS BEING QUICKER THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE WITH A COUPLE SYSTEMS WITHIN THE FLOW PATTERN AND MORE
EASTWARD WITH THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE
THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF WERE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND WITHIN THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
SPREAD...USED A COMPROMISE OF THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...THE 00Z CANADIAN DEVELOPS TWO SURFACE CYCLONES FROM
THE NORTHWEST-MOVING MID-LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND HAS A MORE ZONAL LOOK TO THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS CANADA THAN
SEEN ON THE OTHER GUIDANCE...SO DID NOT USE IT BEYOND MONDAY.
USED A 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE FOR NEXT
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM A SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS NO BETTER THAN AVERAGE IN PLACEMENT DUE TO THE LARGE CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY /ABOUT FIVE DEGREES OF LONGITUDE FARTHER WEST/. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE SYSTEM AS DISTURBED WEATHER FROM THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD COUPLES WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN/HIGHEST WINDS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS CENTER. THE EXPECTED TRACK HAS CONVERGED UPON THAT OF THE LATE MAY 2009 GULF GALE WHICH BROUGHT OVER SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AND ITS IMPACTS COULD BE SIMILAR. STAY TUNED.
Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog.

Best Regards,
Michael
403. 7544
morning all looks like the gem has a lot in store starting this sat for fla

Link
Quoting 7544:
morning all looks like the gem has a lot in store starting this sat for fla

Link


GEM still depicts two storms for Florida. Yikes!
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


GEM still depicts two storms for Florida. Yikes!
Good morning. I don't think that is necessarily a bad thing. Lake Okechobee needs to be filled before the dry season sets in. I just hope it is more of a rain event than anything else.
406. KUEFC
Good to see the wishcasters popping by, yep lets belive a totally unreliable model
Quoting vinotinto:
Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog.

Best Regards,
Michael

I'm not sure I understand your request. Is it too burdensome to simply scroll down to get to the stuff you want to see? After all, the blog entry's subject line announces that there is tropical substance; why not just skip over the parts you don't care about to get to it? When you're enjoying a newspaper or magazine, do you force yourself to read every article--even the ones that don't interest you--to get to the parts you care most about? I simply skip things that don't interest me; can you not do the same?

This may not apply to you, but it's been my experience that most times when people phrase things the way that you have--you know, referring to climate science, something about which Dr. Masters cares deeply and about which he's written frequently, as "propaganda"--they're not actually requesting that the climate-related parts of the post be moved to the bottom, but rather eliminated altogether for ideological reasons. So why not just say that in the first place?

Best Regards,
Jim
No. 407....Agreed.
hey neo you can forget telling people who think global warming is propaganda to just skip that part of the blog. they wont. its so apparent the climate is changing. how much humans are to blame can surely be debated however it is changing. most people just dont want to see it because it might mean in some way they are seen as supporting anything liberal.i dont understand why trying to make the earth a cleaner place and more livable for us all and trying to understand our climate could be seen as dangerous and propaganda. looks like common sense would tell you its the only planet we have and we have to try and take care of it. regardless of your politics we have to try and stop polluting and destroying this planet all in the name of the almighty dollar.
Quoting iceagecoming:
Volcano In Siberia Caused The Greatest Mass Extinction Event Of All Time (6/5/2007)
Tags:
fossils, extinction

Scientists from the Universities of Sheffield and Cambridge have discovered that Mother Nature caused a massive ozone depletion event, some 251 million years ago, during the greatest mass extinction event of all time.

The research, which has been published in the June edition of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, shows that toxic chemicals released by volcanoes led to a thinning of the ozone layer, millions of years before humans even existed.

New mathematical models developed by the scientists suggest a massive episode of volcanism in Siberia, which coincided with the mass extinction, seriously depleted the ozone shield that protects life on Earth from harmful ultraviolet-B radiation. The eruptions injected halogen gases into the atmosphere, and produced potent ozone-destroying chemicals as the hot ascending lava cooked Siberian rocks and underground salt and minerals.

The calculations also help explain fossil finds reported a few years ago of unusual mutated plant pollen in rocks, which dated back to around the time of the mass extinction, and had previously puzzled scientists. These mutations are consistent with damage to plants by extreme UV-radiation.

Don't imagine it was the first or the last, Hmmm.


There have been multiple mass extinction events throughout history. In fact, we're living in one right now. But I'm not sure what this has to do with the current blog post.
Quoting srada:


Minus-------->


I actually agree with neo, if you don't want to read about climate change, then skip it and read the stuff you want to. I read Dr. Masters full blog, the more knowledge I have the better i can comment. Simple really.

And i neo's comment.
Quoting vinotinto:
Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog.

Best Regards,
Michael


lol
Quoting vinotinto:
Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog.

Best Regards,
Michael

I'm not sure I understand your request. Is it too burdensome to simply scroll down to get to the stuff you want to see? After all, the blog entry's subject line announces that there is tropical substance; why not just skip over the parts you don't care about to get to it? When you're enjoying a newspaper or magazine, do you force yourself to read every article--even the ones that don't interest you--to get to the parts you care most about? I simply skip things that don't interest me; can you not do the same?

This may not apply to you, but it's been my experience that most times when people phrase things the way that you have--you know, referring to climate science, something about which Dr. Masters cares deeply and about which he's written frequently, as "propaganda"--they're not actually requesting that the climate-related parts of the post be moved to the bottom, but rather eliminated altogether for ideological reasons. So why not just say that in the first place?

Best Regards,
Jim
http://www.greenvinc.com/
Quoting vinotinto:
Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog.

Best Regards,
Michael


they dont have to do any thing 1st been like this for years
Quoting AussieStorm:


I actually agree with neo, if you don't want to read about climate change, then skip it and read the stuff you want to. I read Dr. Masters full blog, the more knowledge I have the better i can comment. Simple really.

And i neo's comment.
Good (evening) Aussie. I was hoping you read my post before you signed off for the last night..The CMC has a Fujiwara like set up for the Gulf of Mexico this morning..Link
Bastrop County:

Almost exactly to the date of the devastating Bastrop Complex Fire which burned 1649 homes, a new fire started yesterday about 3 miles north of the northern end of the previous fire along FM 2336 near Camp Swift. The fire has burned 1,000 acres since yesterday afternoon requiring an evacuation of 30 homes and is 25% contained
Quoting vinotinto:
Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog.

Best Regards,
Michael

I'm not sure I understand your request. Is it too burdensome to simply scroll down to get to the stuff you want to see? After all, the blog entry's subject line announces that there is tropical substance; why not just skip over the parts you don't care about to get to it? When you're enjoying a newspaper or magazine, do you force yourself to read every article--even the ones that don't interest you--to get to the parts you care most about? I simply skip things that don't interest me; can you not do the same?

This may not apply to you, but it's been my experience that most times when people phrase things the way that you have--you know, referring to climate science, something about which Dr. Masters cares deeply and about which he's written frequently, as "propaganda"--they're not actually requesting that the climate-related parts of the post be moved to the bottom, but rather eliminated altogether for ideological reasons. So why not just say that in the first place?

Best Regards,
Jim

[NOTE: this forum has no real-time admin to delete comments. This one was deleted earlier, as many of mine and others have been recently, by a group of non-contributing members coordinating their efforts on another website. It's pretty pathetic, but to be expected; many were banned from here for such childish acts. Nevertheless, I apologize for any inconvenience.]
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Aussie. I was hoping you read my post before you signed off for the last night..The CMC has a Fujiwara like set up for the Gulf of Mexico this morning..Link

Is this from your comment from last night? What number was it, I'll read back :-)

Are you talking about the one in the NE ATL or in the GOM?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Bastrop County:

Almost exactly to the date of the devastating Bastrop Complex Fire which burned 1649 homes, a new fire started yesterday about 3 miles north of the northern end of the previous fire along FM 2336 near Camp Swift. The fire has burned 1,000 acres since yesterday afternoon requiring an evacuation of 30 homes and is 25% contained

Geez, you guys can't get a break :-(
Quoting AussieStorm:

Is this from your comment from last night? What number was it, I'll read back :-)
I was saying it would be a shame that all the science info and research that we get from our space programs could be doing significant damage to the atmosphere. Ironic considering that some of the satellites we use to monitor pollution may have actually caused a percentage of it.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Is this from your comment from last night? What number was it, I'll read back :-)

Are you talking about the one in the NE ATL or in the GOM?
Gulf.
Quoting hydrus:
I was saying it would be a shame that all the science info and research that we get from our space programs could be doing significant damage to the atmosphere. Ironic considering that some of the satellites we use to monitor pollution may have actually caused a percentage of it.

Yeah, it would be ironic.

Pics from Manila after Typhoon Pedring/Nesat.










Manila Bay walk.


US Embassy Manila.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah, it would be ironic.

Pics from Manila after Typhoon Pedring/Nesat.










Manila Bay walk.


US Embassy Manila.

It seems that the Philippines get slammed continuously. I remember in the 70,s and 80,s getting whacked with monster typhoons.
24.6n60.7w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Phillipe's_5Oct_12pmGMT_ATCF
24.5n60.6w, 25.0n61.2w are now the most recent positions
Starting 4Oct_12pmGMT and ending 5Oct_12pmGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormPhillippe's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 5Oct_12pmGMT,
the coastline blob at 33.488n79.08w-MYR is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 5Oct_6amGMT*mapping
and the coastline blob at 39.201n74.651w-26N is the same for the 5Oct_12amGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TS.Phillipe's travel-speed was 8.5mph(13.7k/h) on a heading of 312.5degrees(NW)
TS.Phillipe was headed toward passage over Engelhard,NorthCarolina ~5days12hours from now

Copy&paste 39.201n74.651w-26n, 33.488n79.08w-myr, 23.8n58.8w-23.9n59.7w, 23.9n59.7w-24.3n60.2w, 24.3n60.2w-24.5n60.6w, 24.5n60.6w-25.0n61.2w, 24.5n60.6w-35.369n76.092w, 7w6 into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 5Oct_6amGMT

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Quoting hydrus:
It seems that the Philippines get slammed continuously. I remember in the 70,s and 80,s getting whacked with monster typhoons.

I've been past the US Embassy a number of times and to see it like that is just jaw dropping.
This is what it normally looks.


Compared to.....


I must note, The US Embassy site is right on Manila Bay.
Quoting Neapolitan:

[NOTE: this forum has no real-time admin to delete comments. This one was deleted earlier, as many of mine and others have been recently, by a group of non-contributing members coordinating their efforts on another website. It's pretty pathetic, but to be expected; many were banned from here for such childish acts. Nevertheless, I apologize for any inconvenience.]
If this is the case then maybe it is time to get some moderators in here to drop the ban hammer (since admin can see who is down rating comments) or just do away with comments completely.

This mess is getting totally ridiculous and is making the comment section nearly unreadable.
Hey guys, just thought you'd like to see an interesting picture of the nor'easter. It seems like an eye-like feature is forming near cape breton. BTW the winds are regularly gusting over 110 km/h here in western nl. Siding just blew off of a hardware store lol

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animateweb _e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_ecan_vv i_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

there sorry lol
looks like the west coast of fl. is in for a pounding
Quoting fuzzy3456:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellite/animatew eb _e.html?imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_eca n_vv i_m_..................jpg&nbimages=1&clf=1

there sorry lol




Goodnight all
433. JLPR2
97e reminds me of Pre-Ophelia

18Z NAM @84HR:

My guess is that this subtropical storm will form around the Bahama's. Track NW across the Florida Peninsula. Make a second landfall in the panhandle, track toward Atlanta, then northeastwards towards the mid-Atlantic/New England states. Before the strongest front of the season boots it out of here by late next week.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I've been past the US Embassy a number of times and to see it like that is just jaw dropping.
This is what it normally looks.


Compared to.....


I must note, The US Embassy site is right on Manila Bay.
Disturbing image to say the least..I hope it is not as bad as it looks... Florida may have some rough weather soon. Southern Caribbean has a surprise in store I believe.
vinotinto "Please put the tropical summary first so we don't have to read all the climate change propaganda to get to the only real reason most of us read this blog."

419 Neapolitan "I'm not sure I understand your request. Is it too burdensome to simply scroll down to get to the stuff you want to see? After all, the blog entry's subject line announces that there is tropical substance; why not just skip over the parts you don't care about to get to it? When you're enjoying a newspaper or magazine, do you force yourself to read every article--even the ones that don't interest you--to get to the parts you care most about? I simply skip things that don't interest me; can you not do the same?

This may not apply to you, but it's been my experience that most times when people phrase things the way that you have--you know, referring to climate science, something about which Dr. Masters cares deeply and about which he's written frequently, as "propaganda"--they're not actually requesting that the climate-related parts of the post be moved to the bottom, but rather eliminated altogether for ideological reasons. So why not just say that in the first place?
"

[NOTE: This forum has no real-time admin to delete comments. This one was deleted earlier, as many of mine and others have been recently, by a group of non-contributing members coordinating their efforts...Nevertheless, I apologize for any inconvenience.] "

Amazingly persistent at their censorship efforts, aren't they?
Even of comments that have nothing to do with ClimateChange itself. eg The exchange here is about whether Dr.Masters should censor himself on his own blog to avoid discomfiting those who don' wanna think about the possibility of man-made meteorological catastrophes.

Which makes me think that their enmity has little to do with the slant, pro-or-con, of your comments. The far more likely motive is their own perception of you as the BigMan on Campus...
...the TopGun. Hence, sniping from deep-cover.
Quoting weatherbro:
My guess is that this subtropical storm will form around the Bahama's. Track NW across the Florida Peninsula. Make a second landfall in the panhandle, track toward Atlanta, then northeastwards towards the mid-Atlantic/New England states. Before the strongest front of the season boots it out of here by late next week.


Well no the strongest front but as least as strong. I predict the former more around the 20-23ed.
Quoting weatherbro:


Well no the strongest front but as least as strong. I predict the strongest front of the season more around the 20-23ed.
re #390: Cool pressure map! Where did you get this?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ECMWF @ 144 hours: