WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Unfavorable winds set to push Gulf of Mexico oil spill into Louisiana

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:53 PM GMT on April 29, 2010

Work crews burned off oil on the surface of the Gulf of Mexico just 20 miles southeast of the Louisiana coast yesterday, in an effort to keep as much oil as possible from moving shoreward and fouling the beaches of the Gulf Coast. Relatively good weather, with moderate southeast winds of 10 - 15 knots, aided the efforts, and work crews were also able to use skimmers and dispersants to remove and thin the oil spill from the April 20 explosion and sinking of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon. For now, it appears that the fires are not large enough to generate air pollution capable of causing health problems for those living downwind, according to the latest graphics from NOAA's Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product.

Oil continues to gush from the well head at 5,000 feet depth at a rate five times what was previously estimated--210,000 gallons per day. This is equivalent to about 2% of the total spilled oil from the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster in Alaska entering the Gulf of Mexico each day. If 210,000 gallons per day has been leaking since the disaster began on April 20, over 2 million gallons of oil has already been spewed into the Gulf, about 18% of the 11,000,000 gallons spilled in America's previous worst oil spill, the Exxon Valdez disaster. With the winds expected to begin blowing the oil spill on shore this weekend, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill appears destined to become one of the most disastrous oil spills in U.S. history.


Figure 1. The oil spill on April 25, 2010, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua spacecraft. Sun glint on the water at this hour happened to be just at the right angle to light up the spill dramatically. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. The oil spill on April 27, 2010, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua spacecraft. The sun angle was not as favorable during this overpass to see the oil spill. The ability to detect oil slicks in photo-like satellite images is very sensitive to the viewing geometry--the angles between the surface, the Sun, and the satellite--at the time of the image. If the slick happens to be located in the sun glint part of the image, it may be very visible, but if not, it can be faint or even impossible to see.

The winds turn unfriendly
The winds have been relatively kind in the week since the Deepwater Horizon explosion, with offshore winds occurring frequently enough to keep the oil spill at least 20 miles from land. However, beginning today (Thursday), NOAA predicts that on-shore winds out of the southeast will increase to 15 - 20 knots, and strengthen to 20 - 25 knots tonight through Saturday night. These winds should be able to push the oil slick close to or on the coast by this weekend, along the Louisiana's Mississippi River "bird's foot" visible in the satellite images above. The winds will weaken to 10 - 20 knots on Sunday through Monday, but remain on-shore. It is not until Tuesday that offshore winds are expected, when a strong cold front should move into the Gulf of Mexico. These offshore winds will last for two days, then high pressure is expected to build in, bringing relatively light winds that should cause little transport of the oil spill for the final portion of next week. My guess is that the winds will not be able to push the oil all the way to the Florida Panhandle coast over the next ten days, but coastal areas from eastern Louisiana to Alabama will be at risk of getting oil.

Oil a long-range threat to southwest and southeast Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas
The surface ocean currents that transport the oil are driven by the wind and by the large scale ocean current structure of the Gulf of Mexico. The latest surface ocean current forecast (Figure 3) from NOAA's RTOFS model indicates a complicated current structure along the Gulf Coast over the next seven days, making it difficult to predict exactly where the oil slick might go. The warm Loop Current enters the Gulf from the south and loops around to the southeast to exit through the Florida Keys. A counter-clockwise rotating cool eddy is located a few hundred miles south of the Florida Panhandle, and a clockwise-rotating warm eddy is located south of Louisiana's Mississippi Delta. If next Tuesday's cold front brings strong enough northwesterly winds to the oil spill region, it is possible that a portion of the spill will get caught in the circulation of these two eddies and sucked southwards into the Loop Current. If this occurs, the oil would be move relatively rapidly at 2 - 4 mph to the southeast and then eastwards through the Keys, potentially fouling beaches in the Keys, northwest Cuba, the southwest and southeast coasts of Florida, and the western Bahamas. Based on the movement of the spill earlier this week during offshore winds, I don't think the spill will be able to make it into the Loop Current next week. However, if the oil keeps spewing from the ocean floor for many months, eventually a wind pattern will set up that will take the oil into the Loop Current. This would most likely happen if a persistent trough of low pressure settles over the East Coast in May, or if a tropical storm makes landfall along the Florida Panhandle this summer. We're fortunate that there are no hurricanes to worry about right now, as the strong winds and storm surge of a hurricane would be able to drive the oil far inland along a wide swath of coast.


Figure 3. Surface ocean current forecast for 8pm Thursday from NOAA's RTOFS model. Forecast was made at 8 pm EDT on Tuesday, April 27, 2010.

Commentary
Oil and coal are essential to modern society, and we need to continue extracting and transporting these fossil fuels to sustain our economy. However, we also need to be aware that the price we pay at the pump for gasoline does not include such expenses as the environmental damage from oil spills, nor the pollution from burning fossil fuels. Any debate about the costs of moving to more expensive but cleaner forms of energy needs to be honest about the tremendous costs due to environmental destruction and pollution that the mining and transport of fossil fuels cause--not to mention the death toll from oil drilling operations, oil refinery accidents, crashes of oil tanker trucks, and wars fought over oil.


Figure 4. Fire boat response crews battle the blazing remnants of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon, April 21, 2010. Note the list of the platform. Image credit: USCG.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday or Saturday. Keep an eye on the severe weather threat in the Plains today and over the Mississippi Valley on Friday. Our severe weather expert, Dr. Rob Carver, is following the action.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1002. Patrap
Well,the distinct smell of Louisiana Sweet Crude has just entered Uptown NOLA..

..on a Brisk South Wind..


WUnderful
Quoting TexasGulf:


You're comparing apples and oranges. Lost oil is not the issue. The potential environmental and financial ramifications are. Worst case scenario, this spill kills off the Mississippi delta region; destroys the shrimp, oyster beds, spawning grounds; spreads oil on hundreds of miles of sugar white beaches thus shutting down the tourist industry at a loss of hundreds of jobs and places going out of business; tourist tax dollars lost forcing major cutbacks in the state coffers...
Yes I've painted the bleakest possible outcome, but that is because that is the perspective that could have such a profound affect on so many people.
Quoting Patrap:
Well,the distinct smell of Louisiana Sweet Crude has just entered Uptown NOLA..

..on a Brisk South Wind..


WUnderful
Ihope its not as bad as people fear but dont get me wrong it will be bad.
Quoting TexasGulf:
The only reason this oil spill is getting so much attention is that it's sudden, catastrophic and the effects highly visible.

However, if you believe in the 6-Sigma process... this oil spill is still a failure because it's a 1:10,000 success rate.

The total U.S. Oil Consumption is 20,680,000 barrels/day. We import 10,400,000 barrels per day and domestically produce 8,457,000 barrels/day.

Since we haven't had a major oil spill in well over 2-years... we can use that as a bench mark. The U.S. produced 6,173,610,000 (6.17 Billion) barrels of oil over the past 2-years.

This spill is estimated at 5,000 barrels per day. If this spill continues for 120 days (4 months)... we will have spilled a total of 600,000 barrels. That's still only one ten-thousandth of what we've produced in the past two years.

The sum total of 600,000 barrels sounds like a LOT over a 120 day spill period, but it's still only 3% of the amount of oil the U.S. consumes in a day.

I bet the U.S. WASTES that much gasoline every day idling their cars at stop lights, in line at fast food restaurants and making totally unnecessary trips.

Just keeping things in perspective.

Nighty-night.


Geesh.....i doubt most in the affected areas and the lives lost and loved one care how much someone is waiting in line for a burger. What is wrong with everyones thinking.
We have been smelling that fuel smell for the past several hours here :( Just stepped outside, and it is definitely stronger :(
Updated each evening
Situation: Wednesday 28 April

Workers finished fabricating the containment chamber portion of the collection dome that will be deployed to the sea floor to collect oil as it escapes from the well. Work will now begin on the piping system that brings the oil to the surface for collection; this method has never been tried at this depth before. The first rig to be used for drilling a relief or cut-off well is on site and should begin drilling approximately ½ a mile from the well head on Friday. The relief well will not be complete for several months. Responders are still figuring out new ways to use Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs) to try to trigger the blowout preventer (BOP), a series of valves that sits at the well head. These efforts will continue concurrent with the collection dome and relief well(s). Good weather today allowed for both skimming operations and aggressive aerial application of dispersants - over 50,000 gallons of dispersant have been applied to the surface oil in the last two days. Patches of surface oil were captured with fire-retardant boom and ignited (in situ burn).

Current NOAA efforts are focused on: gathering more information about the spill, planning for open water and shoreline remediation, and readying for environmental assessment and response. Natural resource damage assessment (NRDA) activities are now underway.


Winds are forecast to become strong (20+ kts) and blow from the southeast starting tomorrow and continuing through the weekend, which will continue to push surface oil towards shore

NOAA oil-spill trajectory analyses indicate that oil continues to move towards shore.

100,000’ of oil-containment booms (or floating barriers) have been deployed as a precaution to protect sensitive areas in the Louisiana area.

The effects of oil on sensitive habitats and shorelines in four states (LA, MS, AL, and FL) are being evaluated should oil from the incident make landfall in appreciable quantities

NOAA’s Assessment and Restoration Division is evaluating concerns about potential injuries of oil and dispersants to fishes, human use of fisheries, marine mammals, turtles, and sensitive resources

Baseline aerial surveys to assess marine life were conducted today with personnel from NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), these will continue as needed


Interesting weather related prediction and/or forecast regarding the Gulf Stream and GOM, was made on April 5th. You be the judge of its merit.

Hmmmmmm ..... any of you guys in the weather department know any Latin?

Click on photo for the original. It looks like Dr. Masters may be onto something.





periculosus= Dangerous
plaga= Zone
Iam= henceforth


something like that
There is an incredible amount of rotation in the storms out west.










that just doesnt look good.
guess which politician said a little over a week ago that these oil operations were perfectly safe? palin it might be better to say nothing than stick your foot in your mouth again. you'd be a vice. good morning everyone tgif
Station 42020 (LLNR 1330) - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX
NDBC
Location: 26.966N 96.695W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 30 Apr 2010 08:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (160%uFFFD) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (152%uFFFD)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.52 in and falling
Air Temperature: 74.7 F
Water Temperature: 73.4 F

1017. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Well,the distinct smell of Louisiana Sweet Crude has just entered Uptown NOLA..

..on a Brisk South Wind..


WUnderful



"The latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed the leading edges of the slick reaching the Mississippi and Alabama coasts over the weekend and stretching as far east as Pensacola, Florida, by Monday."........from CNN.


The entire northern gulf-coast. What a disaster. Pisses me off.
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Wow...
I think everyone on here empathizes with the families who lost loved ones & we all regret that there are lives that were lost due to the explosion. But the big picture includes the loss of sealife & birds, oil seepign into our waterways, destuction of sensitive wetlands, economic losses for the gulf coast tourism industry, fishing industry, shrimpers... should I go on? Because the list is a long one.
There're a lot of losses.
Quoting presslord:
there IS no power greater than Oil
That's a subjective statement. Power is only useful if we can use it. Technically, nuclear power should be the greatest practical power, but we can't use it effectively, at least at the moment. Oil is not likely the greatest power, if we account for the indirect costs that Masters pointed out. That's how oil has become so dominant in the industry. If all of those costs were accounted for, oil might not rule the world. In fact, when oil hit $3 and $4, the alternative energy industry started to gain ground and many people were saying that in a few years many of these technologies would be competitive. That's why people who're in the oil industry are afraid of what congress will do with the climate change bill. They're afraid because that's how they pay their bills. Oil is not as effective as some people believe because this is all pre-tax or pre-cap.

Still, something tells me that if we added up the direct and indirect costs of all of the oil disasters in history that the costs would still be less than the profits. However, if we added up the costs of climate change due to co2 emissions, things start to get much more unclear. For example, if we installed a filtration system in coal power plants to scrub the co2 and other pollutants, their profit margin would go down. If that were the case, nuclear power might regain its former dominance before regulation killed it. The coal power plant industry knows this and that's why only 1 or 2 are operating with filtration systems in-place. There're several studies that have been done. Most point towards heavy costs, and my suspicion is that this might be enough for nuclear power to come back, even bigger than before.

Power is subjective. It's not power if we cannot use it cost effectively. Determining costs is an ongoing thing. It's not straightforward, as we see with the climate change issue and the government wanting to regulate emissions. 100 years ago, none of this would be taking place.
Quoting IKE:



"The latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed the leading edges of the slick reaching the Mississippi and Alabama coasts over the weekend and stretching as far east as Pensacola, Florida, by Monday."........from CNN.


The entire northern gulf-coast. What a disaster. Pisses me off.




We were thinking we smelled it.
1021. IKE
From the Mobile,AL. discussion....

"UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD FURTHER ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST ON SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO MOVE EAST...BUT MEETS
A GREAT DEAL OF RESISTANCE. THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY TO THE WEST
TRIES TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST...BUT WILL NOT MAKE GREAT
PROGRESS. THIS RESULTS IN JUST A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP EAST OF
I-65 WITH RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST MS THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WARMEST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA WHERE THE MERCURY MAY FLIRT WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...A STRONG AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE PEAK OF THE SPRING TIDE CYCLE AND RAISES CONCERNS FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS SUCH
AS THE CAUSEWAY...THE WEST END OF DAUPHIN ISLAND...AND FORT PICKENS.
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

THE ABOVE CONDITIONS ALSO RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WHICH CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH. BEACH VISITORS
NEED TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL THIS WEEKEND AND HEED THE ADVICE OF
LOCAL BEACH PATROLS AND LOCAL FLAG WARNING SYSTEMS. 34/JFB"
...........



Why would anyone want to get in the water with oil heading for the coast? May be the only saving grace of the oil spill...people won't go in the water when they shouldn't and no drownings.

the bad thing is the weather in the gom this weekend is going to go from bad to probably horrific and over wash the booms while no one is out there.
Quoting IKE:



"The latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed the leading edges of the slick reaching the Mississippi and Alabama coasts over the weekend and stretching as far east as Pensacola, Florida, by Monday."........from CNN.


The entire northern gulf-coast. What a disaster. Pisses me off.


Good Morning Ike and WU Bloggers
yes a big azz disaster, yes very ticked off. Say goodbye to the blue crabs, oysters and the mudbugs.

Now they are saying 3 leaks
oil already washing up on La coast
I am off to Hattiesburg for a 3 day dog agility trial and I am hoping the oil doesn't hit our beaches untill I get back on Sunday evening so I can get some video ...trading oil slick for thunderstorms........gotta luv it!!!

stay safe everyone and please pray for the ppl on the entire Gulf Coast








































sorry, didnt mean to stretch the blog
Updated each evening
Situation: Thursday 29 April

Today the Deepwater Horizon incident declared a Spill of National Significance (SONS). A SONS is defined as, "a spill that, due to its severity, size, location, actual or potential impact on the public health and welfare or the environment, or the necessary response effort, is so complex that it requires extraordinary coordination of federal, state, local, and responsible party resources to contain and clean up the discharge" and allows greater federal involvement. Estimates of the release rate increased to 5000 barrels (210,000 gallons) per day based on surface observations and reports of a newly discovered leak in the damaged piping on the sea floor.

NOAA is assisting the Unified Command in evaluating a new technique to apply dispersants to oil at the source - 5000’ below the surface
, if successful this would keep plumes and sheens from forming. Work continues on a piping system designed to take oil from a collection dome at the sea floor to tankers on the surface; this technique has never been tried at 5000’. Drilling of a relief or cut-off well is still planned, but will not be complete for several months.

Dispersants are still being aggressively applied. Over 100,000 gallons have been applied. The test burn late yesterday was successful and approximately 100 barrels of oil were burned in about 45 minutes. Additional efforts are planned contingent on good weather.

With shore impacts looming, sensitive shorelines are being pre-boomed. Over 180,000 feet of boom have been deployed, and another 300,000 feet are forward staged. NOAA efforts have included: getting pre-impact samples surveys and baseline measurements, planning for open water and shoreline remediation, modeling the trajectory and extent of the oil, supporting the Unified Command as it analyzes new techniques for handling the spill. Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) activities are also underway.

* Forecasts indicate persistent winds from the southeast through the weekend which will push surface oil towards shore
* The State of Louisiana allowed shrimpers to start an early season today to get ahead of oil impacts
* NOAA’s Assessment and Restoration Division (ARD) is evaluating concerns about potential injuries of oil and dispersants to fishes, human use of fisheries, marine mammals, turtles, and sensitive resources
* ARD is coordinating with Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama to evaluate plankton and trawl sampling efforts.
* Baseline aerial surveys to assess marine life were conducted today with personnel from NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), these will continue as needed.
1027. MahFL
I bet some shrimpers will knowingly sell oil contaminated shrimp.
100 barrels burnt ?
At least 40,000 barrels have leaked.
The bad thing is of course there was a spill in late march in the same area. Small though in comparison.

Ref -

18,000 gallons of crude oil spilled in Delta National Wildlife Refuge
April 6, 2010
1032. IKE
6Z GFS @ 12 hours...strong southerly flow will push rain and oil in along the northern gulf-coast....




Ditto Saturday's ECMWF...



1033. aquak9
Morning WU-BLoggers.

ike, I believed it was atmoaggie who thought he smelled it in covington, but he was not sure.

Good coverage in beachfoxx's blog, too.
1034. IKE
"It also emerged yesterday that the oil rig did not have a remote-controlled shut-off switch used in other oil-producing nations, such as Norway and Brazil, which could have closed down the well after the explosion.

The device, known as an acoustic switch, is not required under US law, but the lack of one added to questions about BP’s operation of the Deepwater Horizon. It exploded 50 miles off the Louisiana coast on April 20. The cause of the blast, which killed 11 of the 111 workers on board and set the rig ablaze before it eventually sank, has yet to be determined."

from here.
Its strong today.
1036. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Morning WU-BLoggers.

ike, I believed it was atmoaggie who thought he smelled it in covington, but he was not sure.

Good coverage in beachfoxx's blog, too.


Strong southerly winds...plus humidity...I believe it.
1037. P451
Good Morning. A look at the forces at work today. 12HR WV Loop Imagery - ending 730AM ET.

1038. aquak9
mmmm...maybe someone oughtta set up a map blog, kinda try to keep documented who's smelling what.

That sorta technology would be beyond me, and folks might lie about it, too. Not the adults, I mean the kids, just for attention.

The horror and despair is reminiscent of the week before K_.
202,000 gallons of oil a day now being leaked into the Gulf and this may take weeks to fix.
1040. aquak9
jeffs, I thought it was 210,000 per day.

oh did it decrease??
1041. P451
Quoting JFLORIDA:
that just doesnt look good.


Multiple Mesos. Nope, not a good thing. With the speed of those cells there is going to be wind damage.

12HR IR Loop, ending 730AM ET

1042. P451
Quoting aquak9:
mmmm...maybe someone oughtta set up a map blog, kinda try to keep documented who's smelling what.

That sorta technology would be beyond me, and folks might lie about it, too. Not the adults, I mean the kids, just for attention.

The horror and despair is reminiscent of the week before K_.


Sounds like a google earth job. I know during hurricane season someone compiled a google earth kmz to show where all the bloggers live. I forget who.
Hi Thanks for the information!
Quoting IKE:
"It also emerged yesterday that the oil rig did not have a remote-controlled shut-off switch used in other oil-producing nations, such as Norway and Brazil, which could have closed down the well after the explosion.

The device, known as an acoustic switch, is not required under US law, but the lack of one added to questions about BP’s operation of the Deepwater Horizon. It exploded 50 miles off the Louisiana coast on April 20. The cause of the blast, which killed 11 of the 111 workers on board and set the rig ablaze before it eventually sank, has yet to be determined."

from here.


Mornin' everyone!

Ike.. I've been thinking about that. It occurred to me that if they could not physically close the BOP that somehow it was damaged or defeated and that remote operation attempts may have also failed.. just a thought.
1045. P451


1046. Bonedog
Oil spill sparks new drilling ban

The US administration has banned oil drilling in new areas of the US coast pending investigations into the cause of the oil spill off Louisiana.

"No additional drilling has been authorised and none will until we find out what happened," White House adviser David Axelrod told ABC television.

Last month President Barack Obama eased a moratorium on new offshore drilling.

Up to 5,000 barrels of oil a day are thought to be spilling into the water after last week's rig explosion.

The US Navy has been sent to help avert an economic and environmental disaster.

The US government has designated the Gulf of Mexico oil spill as an "incident of national significance". This allows it to draw on resources from across the country.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has declared a state of emergency and asked for federal funds to deploy 6,000 National Guard soldiers to help with the clean-up.


1047. lhwhelk
Quoting P451:


Sounds like a google earth job. I know during hurricane season someone compiled a google earth kmz to show where all the bloggers live. I forget who.
It was zoomiami.
Quoting P451:


Multiple Mesos. Nope, not a good thing. With the speed of those cells there is going to be wind damage.

12HR IR Loop, ending 730AM ET



They had some = but today - and this weekend could be bad.

Dr C has a new blog up.
1050. Bonedog
Station 42020 (LLNR 1330) - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi,
NDBC
Location: 26.966N 96.695W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 30 Apr 2010 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150%uFFFD) at 25.3 kt gusting to 31.1 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSE (153%uFFFD)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.46 in and falling

I know it goes down in these fronts but thats low compared to what it has been. its gonna be windy out there.
Station 42039 (LLNR 141) - PENSACOLA - 115NM East Southeast of Pensacola, FL

Full-screen
Station 42039
NDBC
Location: 28.791N 86.008W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 30 Apr 2010 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (130) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 2.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in and steady

Setting up quite a gradient.
1053. Bonedog
here is the time lapse of the spill =(


















1054. aquak9
with a well depth of 35,000 feet, and it pouring out like this...uncontrolled...gotta wonder what this is gonna do to the earth, seismologically...
Quoting PcolaDan:


You're comparing apples and oranges. Lost oil is not the issue. The potential environmental and financial ramifications are. Worst case scenario, this spill kills off the Mississippi delta region; destroys the shrimp, oyster beds, spawning grounds; spreads oil on hundreds of miles of sugar white beaches thus shutting down the tourist industry at a loss of hundreds of jobs and places going out of business; tourist tax dollars lost forcing major cutbacks in the state coffers...
Yes I've painted the bleakest possible outcome, but that is because that is the perspective that could have such a profound affect on so many people.


That isnt the worst case scenario. Worst case scenario is the Obama regime and comp. use this to further restrict oil production costing millions of jobs and crippling the economy further.
1056. Bonedog


EO-1 Sat Image from yesterday.

Looks eerily familiar
Quoting aquak9:
jeffs, I thought it was 210,000 per day.

oh did it decrease??


202 or 210 is very serious considering I heard last night that this may take weeks if not months to patch this leak. The problem is that this at a depth of 5,000 feet. This will destroy the eco systems from SE LA to the Florida Panhandle. Very Very sad!
Quoting southlouisiana:


That isnt the worst case scenario. Worst case scenario is the Obama regime and comp. use this to further restrict oil production costing millions of jobs and crippling the economy further.


Really as bad as two failed wars in the ME and eight years with no conservation or alternate energy research to speak of?

Then of course there was the Enron thing.

I think a little regulation couldn't hurt.
They had the Mayor of New Orleans on TV last night and he said that this will rival the Katrina disaster. He also, said that the government is not helping enough to get this under control and that thousands of jobs and family owned fishing businesses will be lost.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Hes probably correct:

"Fishing village still recovering from Valdez impact"

I always thought there would be no end to the fishing," said Robby Maxwell. "Now I see myself looking at other ideas to get into different occupations to support my family."

Back in 1977, Maxwell earned $75,000 fishing his first year out of high school. At the time of the spill, his parents' boat and fishing permits were said to be worth nearly a million dollars.

"Ten years later, here we are," Maxwell said. "We lost our retirement, and we're living on Social Security."


___________________________________________



According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there are approximately 26,000 gallons of Valdez crude oil still in Alaska's sand and soil


If I was these businesses I would sue big time as this is a man made disaster.
Quoting Jeff9641:
They had the Mayor of New Orleans on TV last night and he said that this will rival the Katrina disaster. He also, said that the government is not helping enough to get this under control and that thousands of jobs and family owned fishing businesses will be lost.


The point where you saw "Mayor of New Orleans" is the point you should have burst out laughing.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Then of course there was the Enron thing.

I think a little regulation couldn't hurt.

A little regulation would be great. But we have lots. And it hurts.
Quoting southlouisiana:


The point where you saw "Mayor of New Orleans" is the point you should have burst out laughing.


Why's that!LOL Is he not popular there?
Quoting southlouisiana:

A little regulation would be great. But we have lots. And it hurts.


A lot of us dont think this is really funny. I know several fisherman that dont.
Quoting southlouisiana:

A little regulation would be great. But we have lots. And it hurts.
NO as there was a spill in the end of march and a huge one in jan Id say you are totally incorrect.

You need to read up on the incidents.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Really as bad as two failed wars in the ME and eight years with no conservation or alternate energy research to speak of?



Much worse as I said. Just because this fantasy of the magical "alternative energy" is still a fantasy doesnt mean it hasn't been researched to death. Maybe reasearch dollars should have been spent on diverter valves? Keep dreaming that just because you want something to be true then it must be true (and is being hidden by greedy conspiracies). just a few more taxpayer dollars..a few more handouts...right? Almmmmost there...a few more billions....come on...keep the cash flowing for schemes that would die in a quater second without government largess.
In the meantime send your reply by letter. Make that pony express.
Quoting southlouisiana:


Much worse as I said. Just because this fantasy of the magical "alternative energy" is still a fantasy doesnt mean it hasn't been researched to death. Maybe reasearch dollars should have been spent on diverter valves? Keep dreaming that just because you want something to be true then it must be true (and is being hidden by greedy conspiracies). just a few more taxpayer dollars..a few more handouts...right? Almmmmost there...a few more billions....come on...keep the cash flowing for schemes that would die in a quater second without government largess.
In the meantime send your reply by letter. Make that pony express.


Like having to buy GM when we could have imposed mileage restrictions a few years back and made cars people wanted and needed.

Yea I hear ya.
I respectfully dont think "handouts" is an appropriate term when an likely billion dollar disaster is occurring.
1075. IKE
***heads out the door***
Quoting southlouisiana:


That isnt the worst case scenario. Worst case scenario is the Obama regime and comp. use this to further restrict oil production costing millions of jobs and crippling the economy further.


Are you seriously trying to politicize this? This oil spill is a non partisan issue man! Any rational human being should be outraged at the ecological effects this will have on the Gulf of Mexico. It's not like we haven't had decades to break away from oil. We just haven't had the political or monetary will to do so.
1077. Bonedog
everyday the amount jumps.

This is definatly a blow-out, and its depressurizing which means everyday the amount will increase. The last major blow out was in the BOC in 1979, the Ixtoc-1. Over 140 million gallons spilt during that blow-out. It took over 9 months to stop the leak.

This is going to be a major disaster and looks to be a multi national one at that. This will make its way into the Loop Current, something we all do not want to see, and will start affecting far reaching shores. Cuba and the Bahamas have to keep a keen eye on this one.

Another problem, not much talked about is the evacuations of other rigs. As the spill reaches other rigs they will need to cease production and possibly evacuate due to the increased risk of fire or explosion.

Sad times ahead, sad sad times
What's the rational for why cows follow cowboys? Something like "all the other cows are doing it"? It's not about 'magical solutions', it's about getting the critical herd mass to learn something new. The technology is here and sufficient.
1079. aquak9
post 1070- JFlorida, that was mean! this is a national- soon to be international disaster. Lets keep on the coverage, and not take cheap shots.

Let's not be mean to each other. We've got enough problems on our hands here.
puffmm.org governer charlie from florida is pushing this
Here in Florida we could make every home self sufficient from a power standpoint if we had the money to equip them all with solar panels. With the amount of sun we get here if the majority of homes had solar panels we'd be feeding so much power back into the grid there would be a substantial decrease in the fossil fuel consumption by the power companies. Of course, the money doesn't go for that. It goes to subsidize corporations, pay for obsolete weapons systems and other wasteful things. We spend more on defense than the next 16 countries COMBINED! How about we cut our defense budget in half and spend more than the next 8 countries? That would be half a trillion dollars a year or more. Our defense budget right now is in large part welfare for defense contractors. You wanna be outraged about something? Start there.
1079 anyone coming in and lecturing on "Big Government," "Obama regime and comp." and defending BP is more than a little too much now.

But im happy not to go there.

1055 - started it. But I fixed it.
1083. aquak9
1082- I agree, JF. Let's keep the politics on ignore right now. They WANT a response. Don't give'm what they want.

Don't stoop to their level. Much greater issues than men in suits right now.
OK sorry.
Quoting southlouisiana:


The point where you saw "Mayor of New Orleans" is the point you should have burst out laughing.


I'm not trying to make a joke out of this but..
isn't this the same mayor that said almost 2 years that Gustav was going to be the 'Storm of the Century'?
Morning Cybr, aquack

Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Apr 30, 8:54 am EDT

Fair

68 °F
(20 °C)
Humidity: 59 %
Wind Speed: S 13 G 23 MPH
Barometer: 29.67" (1004.5 mb)
Dewpoint: 53 °F (12 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
what's coming ashore now is miniscule in comparison to what's coming...
Quoting presslord:
what's coming ashore now is miniscule in comparison to what's coming...


You got that right! Top O' the morning to ya Press!
a local shrimp fisherman wants to know why BP hasn't asked the local fisherman for help,for one to employ the fisherman to help the clean up,this would put the soon to be almost broke fisherman to work and they know the waterways better than anyone else......my opinion about British Prickoilium four words"THEY DON'T GIVE A f!CK"
Nagan was trying to get people to leave during gustav. That isnt applicable here anyway.

This spill is a disaster.
1093. Patrap
For all the Grey Matter in the room,..ya tink some brain trust would know Nagin is a Goner Monday as Mitch Landrieu is Sworn In as the New Mayor.

Seems Nagin was the last man standing from K in 05.
Bush is playing Haiti with Clinton,Blanco is replaced with Jindal.

So,..those who are right sided should be Jubilant.

But the New Mayor is Sen Mary Landrieu's Brother so there's something for them to moan about.

But,itsa time to geet.

The Wife is really happy he's leaving on her B-day.

So..,

back to whats important.

Oil..and the impact.

Oh,and G'morning
1094. MahFL
The skimmer boats can't work because of the sea and wind conditions for at least 2 days.
Quoting stillwaiting:
a local shrimp fisherman wants to know why BP hasn't asked the local fisherman for help,for one to employ the fisherman to help the clean up,this would put the soon to be almost broke fisherman to work and they know the waterways better than anyone else......my opinion about British Prickoilium four words"THEY DON'T GIVE A f!CK"


I think they are scared but I also think they know it was worse from the beginning.

They had no tried plan to deal with this. This well is very deep.
Still waiting - there was an announcement on the news last night. They gave out numbers that people could call so they could be hired to help with the clean up.
Give me a minute & I'll see if I can find it.
Quoting stillwaiting:
a local shrimp fisherman wants to know why BP hasn't asked the local fisherman for help,for one to employ the fisherman to help the clean up,this would put the soon to be almost broke fisherman to work and they know the waterways better than anyone else......my opinion about British Prickoilium four words"THEY DON'T GIVE A f!CK"
Quoting MahFL:
The skimmer boats can't work because of the sea and wind conditions for at least 2 days.


Monday looks to be the worse that is when a lot of damage will occur.
Well, I can find this.... there was more, I think.

REGIONAL - Workforce Escarosa, Inc. will host hiring events in effort to recruit and screen applicants on the following dates:

---Pensacola---

Friday, April 30, 2010
9 a.m. - noon
Workforce Escarosa
Pensacola One-Stop
3670-A North L Street
(850) 607-8700

Monday, May 3, 2010
9 a.m. - 1 p.m.
Workforce Escarosa
Pensacola One-Stop
3670-A North L Street
(850) 607-8700

Wednesday, May 5, 2010
9 a.m. - 1 p.m.
Workforce Escarosa
3670-A North L Street
(850) 607-8700

---Milton---

Tuesday, May 4, 2010
1 p.m. - 4 p.m.
Workforce Escarosa
Milton One-Stop
5725 Highway 90
(850) 983-5325

---Century---

Wednesday, May 5, 2010
9 a.m. - 1 p.m.
Workforce Escarosa
Century One-Stop
8120 North Century Boulevard
(850) 256-6259

Applicants attending any of the five hiring events must bring proof of U.S. citizenship, a valid driver's license, and any relevant credentials (HAZWOPER and TWIC certifications are preferred). Individuals with questions regarding the current openings or application methods are advised to visit http://www.employflorida.com.
Quoting stillwaiting:
a local shrimp fisherman wants to know why BP hasn't asked the local fisherman for help,for one to employ the fisherman to help the clean up,this would put the soon to be almost broke fisherman to work and they know the waterways better than anyone else......my opinion about British Prickoilium four words"THEY DON'T GIVE A f!CK"


I had read somewhere that they were going to do just that - get the local fisherman and shrimpers to help in the cleanup. It may keep them employed and busy but what a terrible plight. Those poor people who make their living on the health of the GOM get to see foundering sea life and witness the waterways they've come to love polluted with crude oil. What a heartbreaking tragedy.
1100. MahFL
Oh god no, the new Mayor is the Senators brother ?
I hope he has more common scense than his stupid sister.
Dr M just put up a new blog.
Remember this?
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Well, I can find this.... there was more, I think.

REGIONAL - Workforce Escarosa, Inc. will host hiring events in effort to recruit and screen applicants on the following dates:

---Pensacola---

Friday, April 30, 2010
9 a.m. - noon
Workforce Escarosa
Pensacola One-Stop
3670-A North L Street
(850) 607-8700

Monday, May 3, 2010
9 a.m. - 1 p.m.
Workforce Escarosa
Pensacola One-Stop
3670-A North L Street
(850) 607-8700

Wednesday, May 5, 2010
9 a.m. - 1 p.m.
Workforce Escarosa
3670-A North L Street
(850) 607-8700

---Milton---

Tuesday, May 4, 2010
1 p.m. - 4 p.m.
Workforce Escarosa
Milton One-Stop
5725 Highway 90
(850) 983-5325

---Century---

Wednesday, May 5, 2010
9 a.m. - 1 p.m.
Workforce Escarosa
Century One-Stop
8120 North Century Boulevard
(850) 256-6259

Applicants attending any of the five hiring events must bring proof of U.S. citizenship, a valid driver's license, and any relevant credentials (HAZWOPER and TWIC certifications are preferred). Individuals with questions regarding the current openings or application methods are advised to visit
http://www.employflorida.com.



my point being that if BP knew they had zero control over the situation THEY should have contacted local fishermen in the area atleast 4 or 5 days ago....as it begins to wash ashore,its basically to late,IMO.....they need to cap the thing and fisherman cant do that as far as I'm aware of