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Unexpected Tropical Storm Julia Pops Up in Northern Florida; TD 12 Forms

By: Jeff Masters 4:22 PM GMT on September 14, 2016

In a rare surprise, the Atlantic experienced the formation of a tropical storm with its center located over land on Tuesday evening, when Tropical Storm Julia emerged at 11 pm EDT, centered about five miles west of Jacksonville, Florida. Tropical cyclones (comprising all tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) derive their energy from the warm waters of the ocean, so it is very difficult—but not unheard of—for a storm to get its start while centered over land. Julia was helped out by its very large circulation, which pulled a tremendous amount of moisture-laden air from a wide area of ocean. The waters off the coast of Florida that fed Julia featured the exceptional warmth of the Gulf Stream Current, at the time of year when ocean temperatures are at their peak. The Atlantic has had at least one other case of tropical cyclone formation over land: Tropical Storm Beryl in August 1988, which was declared a TD and then a TS while over southeastern Louisiana (thanks go to Boris Konon for this example.)
 

Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Julia.


Figure 2. Latest radar-estimated rainfall accumulation image for Julia.

Radar out of Charleston, South Carolina on Wednesday morning showed that Julia was bringing heavy rains to the coast of Georgia and South Carolina, but these rains were mostly staying offshore. There was no increase in organization or intensity of the echoes apparent, due to the closeness of the storm’s center to land and the presence to a moderately high 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The main threat of the storm is the heavy rain of 3 - 6” that it is likely to bring to the coast over the next two days. The top winds observed at any coastal sites on Wednesday morning as of noon EDT were sustained winds of 29 mph, gusting to 40 mph, at Fort Pulaski, Georgia at 9:48 am EDT. The strongest offshore buoy winds were 33 mph, gusting to 38 mph, at buoy 41008, 46 miles southeast of Savannah, Georgia, at 10:50 am EDT. Storm surge levels along the Southeast U.S. coast at noon EDT Wednesday were 1.3’ or less.


Figure 3. MODIS image of TD 12 on Wednesday morning, September 14, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Depression 12 forms over the Cabo Verde Islands
Tropical Depression Twelve formed in the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa on Wednesday morning, and was bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the islands as the storm headed west-northwest at 13 mph. Satellite images on Wednesday morning showed that TD 12 was well-organized, with plenty of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, a moist atmosphere and warm SSTs near 27 - 27.5°C (81°F), TD 12 is likely to develop into Tropical Storm Karl by Thursday. Ocean temperatures will cool, the atmosphere will get drier and wind shear will increase over TD 12 on Friday, which should weaken the storm—or even dissipate it, as predicted by the GFS model. TD 12 will mostly track to the west-northwest or west over the next five days; it is too early to assume that the storm will recurve to the north and northeast without ever affecting any land areas.

Another African tropical wave may develop next week
The 0Z Wednesday runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the GFS, European, and UKMET models—agreed that a new tropical wave expected to come off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression early next week. This storm is expected to take a track more to the northwest than TD 12, and does not appear to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or North America.

Tropical Storm Ian churning the central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ian continued its unimposing presence in the central Atlantic late Wednesday morning, about 700 miles east of Bermuda. Ian was headed north at about 19 mph into a region with slightly lower wind shear, which may allow the storm to intensify from its current 50 mph winds to 65 mph winds by Thursday. On Friday, Ian will become entangled with a cold front and and upper level low pressure system, and transition to an extratropical storm. Ian is not a threat to any land areas.

For an update on imposing Typhoon Meranti, which is just hours from landfall in China, see our Wednesday afternoon post, which followed this one. Sorry for the site issues and lack of blog access this morning; we had a disk issue that was causing us trouble.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Is everything working now? Thanks for the update, that's working at least! LOL

edit, can't wait for later entry about Meranti though!


I was just about to say Gro just left a comment so a new Blog is sure to be posted any second.

From the previous blog,

coastal cruiser
Fixed!
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Omg the no threat for us.... means drought. This september is turning very sad
Thanks for the new blog and for releasing us from withdrawal symptoms!

Surprises everywhere. NHC might have a look at the Atlantic off France tonight:


Source.

From the current discussion of Estofex: As a side-note for the Bay of Biscay:
Latest satellite data show a rather elongated depression's center over the N-CNTRL Bay of Biscay. In addition, the center features numerous smaller-scale swirls. It now tends to move to the SW and later-on more to the S along the back of the upper low, which would take the surface low beneath somewhat cooler mid-levels and atop higher SSTs.
Latest uptick of convective activity over the CNTRL Bay of Biscay may indicate a reforming center of that depression, which would then be placed more in proximity to the deeper convection and beneath colder mid-levels. Improving thermodynamic conditions should then ensure an increasingly more conducive environment for a strengthening LL vortex over the S-Bay of Biscay during the night. There are some hints that DMC may develop along that vortex and wrap (at least partly) around its center, transforming that low into a tropical-like system. Cyclone phase diagrams support that idea for numerous runs now with more or less pronounced warm-core structures.
Currently analyzed more than 40 kt deep-layer shear also abates a bit, although shear can remain enhanced with such features without inducing a weakening trend.
This low will approach the N-CNTRL coast of Spain during the end of this forecast and it should make landfall beyond 06 UTC. Strong winds and heavy rain would accompany such a system, which is not covered by our forecast procedure! Issued lightning areas over the far S-Bay of Biscay cover thunderstorms ahead of that feature.
Gee...my best opportunity to be the 1st post on a Dr. Masters' blog. Nah! Julia is sitting over my office as I post.
Entry still doesn't show on the main blog page, had to find it in the old one. Thanks for the update, will be watching 12 (and I guess Julia) very closely.
Was something wrong with the blog earlier? I couldn't get it to load properly and there seemed to be no comments since last night.
Great post as Dr. Masters. Now for some thing to head west into the central Caribbean so we can get some RAIN!!!!!
Meranti making landfall on a highly populated portion of Chinese real-estate. Taiwan still receiving heavy rainfalls. Should be a Cat. 3 landfall i would imagine.
Thank You Dr. I was going through some very serious Blog withdrawal issues this morning (headaches, trouble concentrating at work, clicking F5 about 50 times, etc.).................................
C drive does DAT.


Looking just west of Key West.


BTW, was checking the internet all day for news from or about the fate of the tiny island of Itbayat which was consumed by Meranti full force last night, but, as far as I could see: nothing. Obviously no communication possible yet. And meanwhile another night has set in.


Source: cimss.ssec.wisc.edu
Bout time!!!! I was havn kanipsion fits trying to figure out why I couln't see the blog!
Quoting 2. Sfloridacat5:

I was just about to say Gro just left a comment so a new Blog is sure to be posted any second.

From the previous blog,

coastal cruiser




:P
Act Like Nothing's Wrong! You completely missed it and now you're playing catchup ball. Canadian Model of Comedy had this dead-on 090912z, EXACTLY where it verified for anyone that was paying attention. Of course, CMC is not one of our "three reliable models," i.e, the ECM, the UkMet and the in-house, "Good For (bleep)." You disrespect the CMC at your detriment, even as does the now highly-ineffectual NHC, becoming more so by the day. Sad state of affairs.
LH
TD 12 should miss the trough expected in the mid-atlantic and move more WNW. It might be close to the northern Antilles next week.

Top 5 rainfall totals (so far) in Taiwan:
Xidawushan - 812.5 mm (32") *seems rather excessive
Shiwen - 660 mm (26")
Dahanshan - 638 mm (25")
Tianxiang - 622 mm (24.5")
Jinjhenshan - 595 mm (23.5")
Quoting 19. Grothar:

TD 12 should miss the trough expected in the mid-atlantic and move more WNW. It might be close to the northern Antilles next week.



How far west do you think it will make it?
Doc, make sure you hit the green button before retiring.

Quoting 22. SecretStormNerd:


How far west do you think it will make it?

Per Dr. Masters post above "it is too early to assume that the storm will recurve to the north and northeast without ever affecting any land areas."
Quoting 23. JiffMassasWC:

Breaking news..Hurricane season 2016 is over and was certainly a bust


Oh darn (leaves)
Here is the current look to the East and Africa; we are still in the peak period for the Atlantic and in the middle of a Cape Verde storm cluster which includes Ian and assuming that Karl materializes. I would put Julia in the "home grown" category and SSTs are a little cooler to the NW of the Cabo Verde Islands lending credence to the current thinking that TD12/Karl might cool down if it moves towards the NW above 15N in the Central Atlantic versus a track more towards the West and Lesser Antilles:







Cough, Cough...

Crazy how dry Julia's western half is.
Was watching the local WX guys last night and they all seemed surprised by Julia. We did get quite a bit of rain on the Space Coast, but really didn't see too much wind where we are at. Saved me money by filling my pool at least. Curious to see where TD12 ends up.
Quoting 23. JiffMassasWC:

Breaking news..Hurricane season 2016 is over and was certainly a bust


Only because you say so. Those guys at the NHC have no idea what they are doing.
*sarcasm :)
A deep deep watch is now in effect for the entry.

It may be upgraded to a warning if conditions go downhill.


🛂. 🚧
Quoting 22. SecretStormNerd:


How far west do you think it will make it?



If it misses the trough, I believe it could be very close to the Bahamas. just my opinion, but it is a large system.

Very lucky "Julia" didn't find her way into the GOM.
It looks like the models want to keep Julia around for a few days.

Quoting 18. LoneHaranguer:

Act Like Nothing's Wrong! You completely missed it and now you're playing catchup ball. Canadian Model of Comedy had this dead-on 090912z, EXACTLY where it verified for anyone that was paying attention. Of course, CMC is not one of our "three reliable models," i.e, the ECM, the UkMet and the in-house, "Good For (bleep)." You disrespect the CMC at your detriment, even as does the now highly-ineffectual NHC, becoming more so by the day. Sad state of affairs.
LH

When the CMC develops literally everything, it's really not a surprise it managed to finally nail one...
Quoting 33. Grothar:



If it misses the trough, I believe it could be very close to the Bahamas. just my opinion, but it is a large system.



Will be following closely with you!
I noticed that the 11am advisory really made a big shift to the east with Julia from the previous advisory.
Speaking of the Bahamas, where has Baha been?
Call me crazy but I think if TD12 tracks more westward and not NW NNW we could have an interesting looking storm.
Quoting 18. LoneHaranguer:

Act Like Nothing's Wrong! You completely missed it and now you're playing catchup ball. Canadian Model of Comedy had this dead-on 090912z, EXACTLY where it verified for anyone that was paying attention. Of course, CMC is not one of our "three reliable models," i.e, the ECM, the UkMet and the in-house, "Good For (bleep)." You disrespect the CMC at your detriment, even as does the now highly-ineffectual NHC, becoming more so by the day. Sad state of affairs.
LH

ECMWF, okay.
UKMET says a freaking ET storm that is short lived and always inland AT THE POLES is warm-cored and develops more than the CMC
GFS, okay.
Guess we will have to wait on the post season review on the "formation over land" for AL11. Current Best Track shows a TD offshore the Fort Pierce area, then strengthening over land to a TS.
Regarding Itbayat (belongs to the islands of Batanes), I just found these tweets:

Raymon Dullana@raymongdullana 4 hour ago.
As of posting, communication lines in Batanes not yet restored. Disaster team to fly to the province on Thursday

Translated by google:
SONA with Jessica Soho @stateofdnation 4 hours ago.
At least P10 million in damages to the agriculture storm #FerdiePH the Batanes Group of Islands. A report was @Joseph_Morong.
they named it wow

Quoting 14. barbamz:

BTW, was checking the internet all day for news from or about the fate of the tiny island of Itbayat which was consumed by Meranti full force last night, but, as far as I could see: nothing. Obiously no communication possible yet. And meanwhile another night has set in.

Before the data stream was lost, the Itbayat Weather station showed a huge dip in pressure in just one hours' time:
14.09.2016 02:00:00 - 983.0 mb
14.09.2016 01:00:00 - 933.6 mb
14.09.2016 00:00:00 - 951.8 mb
Itbayat Station (98132) - Link
How strong TD12 is a battle of the GFS vs Euro. GFS is expecting higher shear than the Euro for TD12. Will be interesting to see what it does over the next week as it moves westward.
sadly another dry year overall with the peak season leaving us soon and no MJO
dry and stable here again....
perhaps october/november will give us a multi day rain event somewhere in there...
Quoting 5. CaribBoy:

Omg the no threat for us.... means drought. This september is turning very sad
.
Thanks for your insight. Being, that, your first comment, seems you may not stick around too long.

Have a great Hump Day!


I THOUGHT WIKILEAKS GOT US.
Quoting 37. TropicalAnalystwx13:


When the CMC develops literally everything, it's really not a surprise it managed to finally nail one...


What's the saying? "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile."
12N 38W some cyclonic turning.
NHC shows Julia moving merely 90ish miles in the next 40 hours. wow.
test 1 2 3
Quoting 21. SPShaw:

Top 5 rainfall totals (so far) in Taiwan:
Xidawushan - 812.5 mm (32") *seems rather excessive
Shiwen - 660 mm (26")
Dahanshan - 638 mm (25")
Tianxiang - 622 mm (24.5")
Jinjhenshan - 595 mm (23.5")


Xidawushan literally means West Dawu Mountains. It's up thousands of feet in the central range. The rain amounts is definitely orographically influenced, as they often are in the mountains during typhoons.
Quoting 50. GatorWX:

.
Thanks for your insight. Being, that, your first comment, seems you may not stick around too long.

Have a great Hump Day!



a naked on shore swirl alert
Quoting 53. Patrap:





how long has the blog been back cause its been 12 hrs since I have been here
Quoting 60. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

how long has the blog been back cause its been 12 hrs since I have been here


It was down for about 6 hours.
Quoting 59. hurricanehanna:



don't worry spanky if its anything just some day time heating should disp right after sunset
I sure hope Dinem Island was uninhabited ! Wonder if there was a weather station on top of that mountain peak (Elv. 250m). Small island East of Itbayat. A cursory look at the East coastline of Itbayat shows only populated area is Santa Lucia. There seems to be a ferry station on the West side of island as well.

Maybe we could send Cariboy to help in the relieve effort , that may cure his obsession for Cat 5 landfalls .
Quoting 48. Envoirment:

How strong TD12 is a battle of the GFS vs Euro. GFS is expecting higher shear than the Euro for TD12. Will be interesting to see what it does over the next week as it moves westward.

It is hermine all over again
Quoting 58. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

a naked on shore swirl alert


Are you still upset they named it?
Quoting 62. Bucsboltsfan:



It was down for about 6 hours.
I lost it at 12 30 last night and when I tried at 8am no go and a few more times after that
decided too take a late lunch doing drains heat tracing lines and such today got heating system and exhaust work belt replacement done yesterday and Monday


all heat season stuff will be complete today ready too go when needed
Quoting 21. SPShaw:

Top 5 rainfall totals (so far) in Taiwan:
Xidawushan - 812.5 mm (32") *seems rather excessive
Shiwen - 660 mm (26")
Dahanshan - 638 mm (25")
Tianxiang - 622 mm (24.5")
Jinjhenshan - 595 mm (23.5")

Unfathomable, at least for someone in Germany.

Source.
Quoting 66. GatorWX:



Are you still upset they named it?
I wasn't upset its their call I just find it strange it does happen but rare

I would of tagged it at 11 am yesterday morning myself but figured NHC seen something for not doing so

I guess it was a sneak attack system
Quoting 66. GatorWX:



Are you still upset they named it?


Not sure why. It absolutely met all of the criteria.
Ian and TD 12:



Cyan or teal colors:

Is the coc off shore a little? Still maybe a cyclonic loop?
Quoting 70. Hurricanes101:



Not sure why. It absolutely met all of the criteria.
yep except it was fully over land well on the beach when they tagged it
Quoting 72. Autistic2:

Is the coc off shore a little? Still maybe a cyclonic loop?
Last coordinate from the NHC does indeed have it offshore.

Quoting 73. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yep except it was fully over land well on the beach when they tagged it


NHC will fix that in postseason. This should have been classified before landfall.
Just a few days ago -

Typhoons striking China and Southeast Asia have become much stronger
And they're likely to get worse

Link

Now that it is close to the low country of SC, will be interesting to see if it can wrap anything into the west side. Just partly cloudy here in Florence today. Would not mind some rain.

Quoting 29. SavannahStorm:



Cough, Cough...

Crazy how dry Julia's western half is.
I would take a drought over a hurricane anyday. You gotta be nuts to want a hurricane over a drought.
Quoting 74. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Last coordinate from the NHC does indeed have it offshore.




see the five day cone allows for the possibility of a small SW toward the Fl Ga ne almost. We could use some more rain here in NE fl. Weak tropical systems welcome!
16w going going ...


yellow crayon alert

never doubt Spanky ;)
Did you guys have to go to the blog directory to access Dr. Master's new blog?
There are posters on the other blog having difficulties getting to the new blog.

Just curious if things are acting "normal" for everyone?
Quoting 65. Icybubba:


It is hermine all over again

No, Hermine was an invest all the way into the Gulf. This is a fairly well organize system with several days before it becomes a potential land threat. My guess is that this could be a typical CV storm. Easier to track/predict.
For those interested, the 12z Euro is now running:

Quoting 82. justmehouston:

Did you guys have to go to the blog directory to access Dr. Master's new blog?
There are posters on the other blog having difficulties getting to the new blog.

Just curious if things are acting "normal" for everyone?


I had to click the link for the new blog from within the old blog. It's not showing up on the main page.
Quoting 78. PancakeState:

I would take a drought over a hurricane anyday. You gotta be nuts to want a hurricane over a drought.


Disagree. I would take a cat1 hurricane over a drought anyday. Maybe even a low end cat 2. Would not want a major.
Quoting 82. justmehouston:

Did you guys have to go to the blog directory to access Dr. Master's new blog?
There are posters on the other blog having difficulties getting to the new blog.

Just curious if things are acting "normal" for everyone?


It's busted. Only way I found to get here is via the "New Entry" post in the previous blog. It's like our own secret hideout for now.
Tried posting this comment early this morning. Obviously (to me), that didn't work.
A late two cents...


I was not able to take part in the real-time 93L/Julia festivities yesterday. I did spend a little time in the RAP archives last night-which is not the gospel, nor is its interpretation here.

93L displayed a continuing wind weakness (both in speed and direction) in the southwest quadrant until yesterday afternoon


09/13 01:00AM EDT
Clearly, not closed around midnight Tuesday.


09/13 08:00AM EDT


09/13 2:00PM EDT
Probably about this time the circulation was clear. Perhaps if the NHC was going choose to use the "persistence" qualifier, a good time to start the clock.


09/13 11:00PM EDT
93L becomes "Julia" at 11PM EDT. A well formed low with 3 closed isobars. Julia did not move any further inland-no option left but to issue a name.
Quoting 19. Grothar:

TD 12 should miss the trough expected in the mid-atlantic and move more WNW. It might be close to the northern Antilles next week.




So much waste of systems and rain over the open waters :\\


:\\
Quoting 84. Envoirment:

For those interested, the 12z Euro is now running:




Fish model.
Manhattan sized ice shelf separating from Greenland after unusually warm summer (Jason Box)

Does anyone know, what is the purpose of "WMO and AWIPS headers" for public and forecast advisories that are mentioned in tropical weather outlooks, and why haven't the headers of products for TS Ian been mentioned lately? NHC so busy that they forgot about Ian? :)
Quoting 82. justmehouston:

Did you guys have to go to the blog directory to access Dr. Master's new blog?
There are posters on the other blog having difficulties getting to the new blog.

Just curious if things are acting "normal" for everyone?

For a whopping 10 hours, there was no update, then boom, up to date
Blog broke down for the 10.000th time this summer.It kept referring me to the first blog ever posted by the good Doc himself in 05.Some serious issues are going on with the site and servers.
Quoting 69. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I wasn't upset its their call I just find it strange it does happen but rare

I would of tagged it at 11 am yesterday morning myself but figured NHC seen something for not doing so

I guess it was a sneak attack system


For sure a sneaker.

From what I recall, went from 0, 40, 70, ts in less than 18 hrs.

I agree 100% with their classification of this as a tc. It had met all criteria, aside from being over water as it developed, but it was always very close to it's energy source.

I have a harder time grasping the fact they had ts warnings up for a non-tropical entity (Hermine). From a scientific standpoint, that's harder to swallow. 93 had every right to be classified and in hindsight, I bet *whatever(L) LA no-namer would be too, but as a TD.

I prefer science. I don't watch TWC anymore. :) ;)

Things were a lot different, even 10 yrs ago.
Quoting 81. hurricanehanna:



yellow crayon alert

never doubt Spanky ;)

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/1/17/Nor th_Atlantic_Tropical_Cyclone_Climatology_by_Day_of _Year_Graph.PNG

It never fails no matter how quiet or busy a season is.
Quoting 94. RobertWC:

Manhattan sized ice shelf separating from Greenland after unusually warm summer (Jason Box)






Quoting 97. washingtonian115:

Blog broke down for the 10.000th time this summer.It kept referring me to the first blog ever posted by the good Doc himself in 05.Some serious issues are going on with the site and servers.
Yeah, it took me to the 360 degree rainbow blog. It was nice seeing some familiar handles in there like TomTaylor. :P
Quoting 48. Envoirment:

How strong TD12 is a battle of the GFS vs Euro. GFS is expecting higher shear than the Euro for TD12. Will be interesting to see what it does over the next week as it moves westward.
Seeing how this year has gone I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS ends up correct.
On the latest run of the Euro it sends the storm more west because its weaker
I accessed this blog post from the right hand column linking to posts, but it's not showing at the top of the page when I click on "News & Blogs".
Quoting 22. SecretStormNerd:


How far west do you think it will make it?

Florida, then the Gulf Coast states.
Quoting 81. hurricanehanna:



yellow crayon alert

never doubt Spanky ;)



And some will still say this season is a bust. Sigh....
Quoting 97. washingtonian115:

Blog broke down for the 10.000th time this summer.It kept referring me to the first blog ever posted by the good Doc himself in 05.Some serious issues are going on with the site and servers.


Funny how we used to get 5000+ comments, easily and with no corporate-backing. Hmmph.



I will go no further. ;)
Is that an EYE?

Quoting 86. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

11L


Holy crap have you seen Julia's forecast circle?
Quoting 107. wantsnow:

Is that an EYE?



I think it might be..
Just looking at the radar loop, the core of Julia's low level circulation looks like it is entirely over the open water now (maybe it jumped again). Looks pretty impressive too, I don't think it is weakening anytime soon. NHC might want to put up a tropical storm warning for the Charleston area, just my opinion.
Quoting 107. wantsnow:

Is that an EYE?


dry slot
Quoting 105. Bucsboltsfan:



And some will still say this season is a bust. Sigh....


Lots of quantity, paltry quality...
WHOA!

Quoting 94. RobertWC:

Manhattan sized ice shelf separating from Greenland after unusually warm summer (Jason Box)


Blobcon 1 (posted earlier)

Quoting 82. justmehouston:

Did you guys have to go to the blog directory to access Dr. Master's new blog?
There are posters on the other blog having difficulties getting to the new blog.

Just curious if things are acting "normal" for everyone?


I was on Merantis' info page, had refreshed and saw the blog changed from the original 2005 one to a different one. Didn't realise it was 'new' new, thought it still wasn't working properly at first and was from a bit earlier, as main page links weren't working.
Quoting 98. GatorWX:



For sure a sneaker.

From what I recall, went from 0, 40, 70, ts in less than 18 hrs.

.


Would that be RI? I'm not being mean or sarcastic, but it fits the bill, right?
Victorian floods: State battered with worst September deluge in a century

Link
O!

Quoting 111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

dry slot
Well.... It looks like no more rain from Julia.
Chuck roast is in the oven.
Naptime...
Quoting 102. washingtonian115:

Seeing how this year has gone I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS ends up correct.
On the latest run of the Euro it sends the storm more west because its weaker

The GFS is and will always show storms moving pole ward, due to the fact that this stupid model is always over amplifying the troughs and underestimating the strength of the highs. Until the model is torn down and rebuilt from the ground up it will continuously have this problem. It will continue to curve the storm more west as time goes by, instead of doing it from the beginning.
Pretty much a non-event for much of the Savannah area, especially the inland areas where the rain is needed most. Thank the Georgia Bight. I live near the coast and had 1/4 inch of rain last I checked. Probably a little more now. The storm appears to be moving faster than they said it would. Rain has stopped for the most part. Charleston looks to be getting it much worse.
Quoting 116. MonsterTrough:



Would that be RI? I'm not being mean or sarcastic, but it fits the bill, right?


Hard to say but I'd say no. The definition of RI is

Rapid Intensification:
An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.
Myrtle Beach, SC: My house received 12.0" of rain since TS Hermnine came over 9/2...
9/2 = 7.5" TS Hermine
9/12 = 3.6"
9/13 = 1"
9/14 = 1" this morning
How much more do the skeeters need to breed until X-mas???
It may not be to late CariBoy! lol


Endless wish. Endless hope.
as i said 10 hrs ago. julia may loop. center is off coast now.....
Quoting 114. Grothar:

Blobcon 1 (posted earlier)




Kinda looks like a TRex to me.
Quoting 124. washingtonian115:

It may not be to late CariBoy! lol



Don't give him false hopes.
Buddy, needs a hose from Puerto Rico with water? Let me know.


Quoting 93. CaribBoy:



Fish model.
Just curious if things are acting "normal" for everyone?

You mean the climate or the web ?

There is a new group of Russian hackers, with the best name yet :

"The Fancy Bears"
Gonna love those fun loving Russians.
After the run ends is a fish for the Caribbean.

Quoting 129. Bucsboltsfan:



Don't give him false hopes.
Quoting 124. washingtonian115:

It may not be to late CariBoy! lol





Hope was very short lived :(((((((

It's a little surprising that we in Charleston have had three systems so far this year.

I'll take 25 of the minor brushes, if it means not one major blow.
Quoting 90. CaribBoy:



So much waste of systems and rain over the open waters :\\


I just hope it doesn't raise the ocean levels.
This season is ridiculous. After 97L, 99L and 92L not even able to develope on time before affecting us... come more and more fishes :\
It's very bad if this blog is down that long. How will the NHC know what is going on?
Quoting 135. Grothar:



I just hope it doesn't raise the ocean levels.


Now that made me LOL!
Quoting 134. nash36:

It's a little surprising that we in Charleston have had three systems so far this year.

I'll take 25 of the minor brushes, if it means not one major blow.


You guys get everything that misses us in Savannah.
Or affect sanility.

Where's my glasses?

;-0

Quoting 135. Grothar:



I just hope it doesn't raise the ocean levels.
Quoting 134. nash36:

It's a little surprising that we in Charleston have had three systems so far this year.

I'll take 25 of the minor brushes, if it means not one major blow.
What I find interesting is where these systems made landfall. Hermine as a hurricane just east of Apalachicola and went over Tallahassee, and Julia moving up the east coast of FL. and Georgia and now nearing SC. Basically, areas which don't see much impacts from tropical cyclones are getting hit.
TD 12 and system behind it will be fishys if they even survive the shear and dry air that has been disrupting storms all year. This might as well be a elnino year..
Quoting 141. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What I find interesting is where these systems made landfall. Hermine as a hurricane just east of Apalachicola and went over Tallahassee, and Julia moving up the east coast of FL. and Georgia and now nearing SC. Basically, areas which don't see much impacts from tropical cyclones are getting hit.


Don't mind telling you it gives me pause;

With how the steering flow has been all summer (with the exception of the ridge splitting temporarily), if any seed were able to get it together out of the chute, NE FL, GA and SC could be in trouble.
Quoting 136. CaribBoy:

This season is ridiculous. After 97L, 99L and 92L not even able to develope on time before affecting us... come more and more fishes :\


Those active years with solid hurricanes with actual eyes are a thing of the past.. Does anyone even remember the last time we even had a Hurricane in the gulf or Caribbean with an eye?? Hermine doesnt
12 will not be a fish. watch what you say. look at models. strong high ridge is building.
Quoting 136. CaribBoy:

This season is ridiculous. After 97L, 99L and 92L not even able to develope on time before affecting us... come more and more fishes :\


I chuckle at most of your comments. As a south Louisiana resident I secretly always hope a big hurricane slams right into us because well, that's just me. I don't wish death and destruction on anyone but.... I promise you this, if a CAT 5 comes screaming through the ATL and makes a break for the mainland, private message me and I will pay for your flight to get you to the landfall location, but only if we can tie you down to the nearest pier to ground zero and attach a webcam to your head. :)
When was the last time that there was a big hurricane with an eye barreling across the islands and into the Caribbean on a WNW track towards the gulf??
Quoting 145. markot:

12 will not be a fish. watch what you say. look at models. strong high ridge is building.


Wont be a hurricane either. Shear is too high and dry air
El Nino and global warming combine to cause extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest

Some El Niño events, like those of 1982/1983 and, especially, 1997/1998, are stronger than average. In 2014 alarm bells started ringing at the possibility of another such 'Mega Niño', as they are known, though ultimately not all of the necessary conditions converged. However, in 2015 they all fell into place, leading to the current 2015/2016 event, which, coupled with the trend of global warming, is proving more extreme than any on record.
The study, by researchers at the Universitat de València and published in Scientific Reports, shows how the current El Niño event is associated with an unprecedented heating of Amazonia, reaching the highest temperature in the last forty years and, probably, the last century. Additionally, extreme drought has hit a much larger area of this region than usual and is distributed atypically, with extremely dry conditions in the northeast and unusual wetting in the southeast (something which occurred in 2009/2010, though to a lesser extent).
According to the UV scientists, this fact, not observed in the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events, implies that, the more the central equatorial Pacific is heated, the more marked the difference between and distribution of the wet zones and areas of extreme drought in the Amazon rainforest.



Read more at: Link
Sorry CariBoy but look at the ridge that builds over head...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 137. Grothar:

It's very bad if this blog is down that long. How will the NHC know what is going on?

No worries . They have Levi's cell.
Storms are lining up across North Central Fl getting drawn into Julia. Watch out for a training event - some folks could see some heavy rains this afternoon and evening.



Quoting 152. lat25five:


No worries . They have Levi's cell.

You mean they don't use a crystal ball? Geesh.
What's possibility of ex 92L blob out in gulf developing before moving inland I'm assuming here in texas?? I know all the weather stations are showing high rain chances from Friday on til early next week. Could it spin something up like Julia did? What is thoughts on that?
Getting some drizzle from our dear Julia
92l is back, again. 2016 should be called the year of the undead invests.
Julia is moving NE faster than expected. I know it is supposed to linger for a while, but I am not seeing evidence of that.
Quoting 137. Grothar:

It's very bad if this blog is down that long. How will the NHC know what is going on?


At least something made me smile today :)
Thunder in North Brevard county, with intense lightning
Quoting 94. RobertWC:

Manhattan sized ice shelf separating from Greenland after unusually warm summer (Jason Box)



They should tow it to California, they're going to need it, because this is a million year drought.

What about it Governor?
162. vis0
since this blogbyte was a seoerator of the other 2 blofgs here some "useful" info::

Rumor/Real?? Is GROUNDHOG DAY is coming to Broadway, i can see ticket buyers demanding a refund 5 minutes into the play.
164. vis0
101.  GTstormChaserCaleb  6:06 PM GMT on September 14, 2016




Quoting 97. washingtonian115:

Blog broke down for the 10.000th time this summer.It kept referring me to the first blog ever posted by the good Doc himself in 05.Some serious issues are going on with the site and servers.


Yeah, it took me to the 360 degree rainbow blog. It was nice seeing some familiar handles in there like TomTaylor. :P


 
 
YEAH! it took my window(s) and place a funny looking gorilla jumping up and down on a planes wing also saw Dinosaurs on the isle of Manhattan.
 
 
i'll have 2 of whatever the blg is taking
165. vis0
101.  GTstormChaserCaleb  6:06 PM GMT on September 14, 2016




Quoting 97. washingtonian115:

Blog broke down for the 10.000th time this summer.It kept referring me to the first blog ever posted by the good Doc himself in 05.Some serious issues are going on with the site and servers.


Yeah, it took me to the 360 degree rainbow blog. It was nice seeing some familiar handles in there like TomTaylor. :P


 
 
YEAH! it took my window(s) and place a funny looking gorilla jumping up and down on a planes wing also saw Dinosaurs on the isle of Manhattan.
 
 
i'll have 2 of whatever the blg is taking
Typhoon Meranti triggers 17-meter record-high waves

The waves were the highest ever recorded in the history of China's offshore wave surveillance, said the NMEFC, which on Wednesday upgraded its warning for ocean waves triggered by Typhoon Meranti to "red," the highest alert on a four-color warning system.

Link
Quoting 135. Grothar:



I just hope it doesn't raise the ocean levels.
Nah, evaporation will take care of that!
161. OracleDeAtlantis

They should tow it to California, they're going to need it, because this is a million year drought.

What about it Governor?


Besides the collapse of this ice shelf, note the the melt ponds all over it's surface. It'll never make the Panama Canal.
Quoting 166. RobertWC:

Typhoon Meranti triggers 17-meter record-high waves

The waves were the highest ever recorded in the history of China's offshore wave surveillance, said the NMEFC, which on Wednesday upgraded its warning for ocean waves triggered by Typhoon Meranti to "red," the highest alert on a four-color warning system.

Link
Check out the cartoon on the page of this article... It's titled "Unwelcome sojourn"
169. JNFlori30A

Political cartoons and 17 meters waves , have very little in common.

vis0
Have you had a stroke ?

169. JNFlori30A

Just for your edification =

One meter is 3.28084 feet. That means the waves the Chinese observed were 55.7743 feet.
On top of the storm surge .
Julia drifting south?
It would seem that Julia is the most inland forming tropical storm, if not the only one. Beryl's tropical storm designation lat/long seems to have been just barely on the water side of the Louisiana coast according to Google maps, granted that it's unclear how the coastline differed in 1988.