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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Unexpected ocean cooling result found to be an error; 2nd warmest October on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:16 PM GMT on November 19, 2008

Since the publication in 2006 of the paper, Recent cooling of the upper ocean, climate scientists have been scratching their heads, trying to figure out why the upper layer of the ocean had cooled from 2004-2006. Since the oceans absorb more than 80% of the heat from global warming, we should expect to see the oceans heating up if the globe is warming. Climate skeptics pointed to the result as evidence that the planet was not warming after all, although surface and satellite measurements showed that the year 2005 was the warmest or second warmest year on record for the surface of the globe.

Now, the explanation for this apparent cooling of the oceans has been resolved--key measurements made by submersible robot buoys and that indicated the ocean was cooling were found to be in error. The new, corrected data show that no cooling of the oceans occurred in 2004-2006, in agreement with what the climate models were predicting. People often malign the accuracy of climate models, but sometimes they are more trustworthy than the data! The full story of the global ocean cooling mistake is presented in an excellent NASA article that I highly recommend reading. It gives a great picture of how science moves forward to correct mistakes.


Figure 1. Ocean temperature change from 2004 to 2006 originally showed drops of over 1.5° C in the Atlantic Ocean (top). The apparent large drop in temperature was due to bad data from buoys, and it disappeared when errors in these data sets were corrected (bottom). The remaining large swings in temperature visible in these maps are due to shifting positions of ocean currents. (Maps by Robert Simmon, based on data from Josh Willis and John Lyman.)

Second warmest October on record for the globe
The planet continues to stay extremely warm this year, though no record warm months have been recorded in 2008. October 2008 came the closest--it was the 2nd warmest October for the the globe on record, according to statistics released yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. These statistics have been corrected for a widely reported error that was discovered earlier this month. Over land areas, October 2008 was the warmest October on record. The period January through October was the 9th warmest such period on record. Records extend back 129 years, to 1880. Much of the unusual warmth occurred over Asia, Australia, and Eastern Europe (Figure 2). According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, October 2008 was an exceptionally dry month in central and southeastern Australia, ranking as the driest October on record for South Australia, second driest for Tasmania, and third driest for Victoria.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for October 2008. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

For the contiguous U.S., October was pretty ordinary. It was the 44th coolest and 51st driest October since 1895. October was the 7th wettest on record for the West North Central U.S. and the 17th driest for the Northwest U.S.

October 2008 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the third lowest on record for the month of October, 34% below the mean from 1979-2000, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This is 9.5% below the 1979-2000 average. The record October low was set in 2007.

There is neither a La Niña nor El Niño at present, and neutral conditions now prevail in the tropical Eastern Pacific. There is no indication that this will change in coming months, and most of the computer climate models forecast a continuation of neutral conditions over the next three months.

Portlight making keynote presentation at charity funding conference
The Portlight.org charity is making the keynote presenation at a funding conference hosted by a coalition of state and federal agencies which work in the area of post-disaster relief involving people with disabilities. The presentation is Thursday morning, November 20, at 9:15 am EST. You can follow the proceedings via the portlight webcam at stormjunkie.com. The webcam will also be running most of the day today as Stormjunkie and Presslord drive up to Atlanta for the conference, and host a Q and A session from their hotel room tonight. At the conference Thursday morning, they plan to discuss the Hurricane Ike relief efforts made possible by the Weather Underground community. Thanks for everyone's support for making all this possible!

I'll have a new blog post Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc.

Not surprised that Western Europe has been slightly below average, certainly colder than it has been in some time; a trend that may yet continue, we shall see.

You can tell it's off-season in the tropics....the GW debate rages on.

Time to back away~~~~~~~~
Thanks Doc,

It is interesting that I just stumbled upon that article while perusing the NASA pages within the last couple days. A lot of good reading on that site.
Thanks for the update Dr. M.
Ike - so right about the GW 'stuff' starting up again.
Though on the anomalies map, I've a major problem with it. Where is the data for the Arctic and Antarctic?

That right now appears to be the places with the greatest anomalies. Seems a bit weak to provide a map of a set data without including a fair portion of the globe.
Quoting IKE:
You can tell it's off-season in the tropics....the GW debate rages on.

Time to back away~~~~~~~~


LOL I understand that, it's like trying to discuss religion, or politics. That article reenforced my view that a lot of what we "know" is wrong and it is going to be quite a while before we have a good handle on what is going on with the climate.

In the mean time, I am all for cleaning up our act. We need to take better care of the planet than we have in the past. I just wish people could be open minded and discuss these issues reasonably, instead of using scare tactics, or pouncing upon someone because they have a different opinion.
Thanks Doc.

In Colorado we noticed a definite result from Beijing ceasing pollution for the Olympics: Our temps returned to seasonal norms. Once Beijing start up the pollution again, our weather pattern was again hosed.
7. StarDancer

Was curious about your avatar, so I clicked on it...wow, some beautiful pics in your gallery. Thank you for sharing them.

By the way, I'm pretty sure your "wierd plane" is a Beechcraft Starship...a very rare sighting.



IDW23100
40:3:1:24:12S099E999:11:00


HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 1302UTC 19 NOVEMBER 2008

STORM FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Tropical Cyclone Anika was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude eleven decimal nine south [11.9S]
longitude ninety nine decimal zero east [99.0E]
Recent movement : east southeast at 13 knot
Maximum winds : 40 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 80 nautical miles in NE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SE quadrant
and within 60 nautical miles in SW quadrant
and within 80 nautical miles in NW quadrant.


FORECAST
Maximum winds to 40 knots near the centre increasing to 55 knots by 1200 UTC 20
November.

Winds above 48 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre after 1800 UTC 19
November with very rough seas and moderate swell.

Winds above 34 knots within 80 nautical miles with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0000 UTC 20 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 13.3 south 101.0 east
Central pressure 988 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.
At 1200 UTC 20 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 14.5 south 103.0 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.
Next warning will be issued by 1900 UTC 19 November 2008.


WEATHER PERTH, BOM


Cheers AussieStorm
Thanks Doctor M.

ROAD TRIP!!!!
Thanks Dr. M the planet remains warm,but we here in the northeast don't seem to be sharing in that warmth.For the most part have not been above normal.
Hope we don't get into a GW discussion,would rather have a root canal
All I know is it was 36 degrees in SWFL here this morning. And I can't remember the last time it was that cold in Nov
Quoting NEwxguy:
Hope we don't get into a GW discussion,would rather have a root canal


hehe...was just thinking how your last post was just begging for it to all be explained to you in great detail...I'd settle for a couple degrees of Florida warming right now...LOL
DR. Almost sounds like science wanting to retract so they get there government funding for research......how typical.
Quoting RobDaHood:


hehe...was just thinking how your last post was just begging for it to all be explained to you in great detail...I'd settle for a couple degrees of Florida warming right now...LOL


LOL,couldn't be farther from the truth,love to discuss or debate a lot of subjects,but GW is not one of those
Thanks Dr. Masters. Good morning everyone.
18. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
Hope we don't get into a GW discussion,would rather have a root canal



LOL!


DOW
143.45
-1.70%
8,281.30


Quoting NEwxguy:
Hope we don't get into a GW discussion,would rather have a root canal


Haha!

Ah, now I just need to watch Finding Nemo...
Quoting Cotillion:


Haha!

Ah, now I just need to watch Finding Nemo...

????
just keep swimming...just keep swimming!
Quoting TampaSpin:
DR. Almost sounds like science wanting to retract so they get there government funding for research......how typical.


And such an idiotic comment...
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Only 5 weeks until 2009 !!!!!
Thanks Doc
But,I'm glad they don't fly airplanes.
"Trust your instruments" should be the order of the day.
If you don't like your altimeter reading, you shouldn't throw it out the window.
Afternoon all.
In for a short.
Heavy thunder to my south about 5 miles. Same conditions as yesterday.
Deaths from the heavy rains this week= 2. A 65 yr. old man. A 4yr old child. Many areas of the city and suburbs under mud and slush from overflowing rivers. Landslide on one city exit, and a washed out bridge on another, caused major confusion yesterday with commuters unable to leave the city until late.
Hope that today is not so bad.......
TampaSpin-DR. Almost sounds like science wanting to retract so they get there government funding for research......how typical...so agree!
Pottery: So sorry to hear about all of this. You take care!
Quoting MichaelSTL:


And such an idiotic comment...


Michael sound like you have a small mind liberal thinker......LMAO.....grow up.
hope your weather dries out pottery have a fun weather day folks
Also, there is no "debate" on global warming; anybody who doesn't have their head in the sand knows that it is occurring, the only "debate", if you can call it that, concerns what might happen in the future (e.g. will hurricanes become more common, how much will sea level rise).

In addition, speaking of climate models often being right (as Dr. Masters mentioned), another one of their predictions has been verified; amplification of warming due to water vapor feedback (which should happen, given that water vapor accounts for about 80% of the 33*C greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide is only about 10%, but that is still about 3*C by itself, add in increased WV and you end up with a 6*C rise for a doubling in CO2, plus other feedbacks like melting ice):

Water Vapor Confirmed As Major Player In Climate Change

Specifically, the team found that if Earth warms 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, the associated increase in water vapor will trap an extra 2 Watts of energy per square meter (about 11 square feet).

"That number may not sound like much, but add up all of that energy over the entire Earth surface and you find that water vapor is trapping a lot of energy," Dessler said. "We now think the water vapor feedback is extraordinarily strong, capable of doubling the warming due to carbon dioxide alone."

Because the new precise observations agree with existing assessments of water vapor's impact, researchers are more confident than ever in model predictions that Earth's leading greenhouse gas will contribute to a temperature rise of a few degrees by the end of the century.

"This study confirms that what was predicted by the models is really happening in the atmosphere," said Eric Fetzer, an atmospheric scientist who works with AIRS data at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "Water vapor is the big player in the atmosphere as far as climate is concerned."


Another interesting thing is that as much as 80% of the potential warming so far has been suppressed by aerosol pollution (this likely even caused cooling over the Northern Hemisphere in the 1950s-1970s:

Dirty Brown Clouds Impact Glaciers, Agriculture And The Monsoon

Globally however brown clouds may be countering or 'masking' the warming impacts of climate change by between 20 and up to 80 per cent the researchers suggest.


(though with such a wide range we of course are not really sure yet just how much, but if it is closer to 80% then we should be really concerned; e.g. without aerosol pollution, last month might of had a +3.15*C anomaly instead of +0.63*C, or for land only, +5.6*C vs. +1.12*C and an Arctic that was already ice free; this uncertainty of course is factored into future predictions, though by no means a "debate", except for just how much; we will likely be able to find out exactly how much aerosols impact temperatures soon)
8. RobDaHood Thanks, esp for the airplane info... we're always looking skyward when we hear "weird" sounding planes, hoping for some nice WWII beauties.
Year Conchy. Not nice.
Too much un-regulated city-sprall going up into the hills behind the city of Port-of-Spain, and along the east-west corridor. The mountains rise up steeply to a max of 3000 ft., and the valleys are steep too. Deforestation and "development" are the general causes for the flooding. Also, lack of maintenance to river beds and drainage systems.
We are too busy building BlingBling, to worry about maintenance......
Quoting TampaSpin:


*POOF*
Quoting RobDaHood:

????
just keep swimming...just keep swimming!


Link

There... about halfway in....
24. pottery

Sad to hear, hard to be our usual jovial selfs in the face of such tragedy.

I seem to recall you telling me once that the southern area it the part most prone to flooding. Is that correct?
TS - I knew you'd make Michael STL's poof list. Aren't you just broken hearted? I too am on his list! LOL
Ok,out of here gotta get a root canal
29. MichaelSTL 11:53 AM EST on November 19, 2008

Michael for what its worth have a great Thanksgiving.......

Haven't laughed so hard since "Press in a dress"
Quoting conchygirl:
TS - I knew you'd make Michael STL's poof list. Aren't you just broken hearted? I too am on his list! LOL


Breaks my heart just like the rest of the 99% of the WU bloggers.....lol
Quoting RobDaHood:
Haven't laughed so hard since "Press in a dress"


I know i need some serious councelling....but, i just could not help myself....please help me!!! ROFLMAO
That turkey is hysterical. Good one!
Our Prime Minister will address the Nation tonight.
Our Nat. Budget is based on an oil price of 70.00 $.
Word is, that social services may be reduced. And that current Gov. expenditure may be reduced. ( the end of Bling ??)
Inflation last month hit 14.8 % !! Up from around 4% last year. Food prices up by 35%. Due in part to floods in Aug-Oct to agricultural lands.
November rains will add to this problem.
Unfortunately, we are not in a position to throw PetroDollars at these difficulties these days, because we have been on a spending spree for a couple of years. Now, the turds are flying off the fan blades.
Interesting times for sure.
Social unrest is not out of the question...........
Quoting conchygirl:
That turkey is hysterical. Good one!


Sorry but, it could not stop the temptation ......i need therpy!! :)
42. pottery

Certainly hope it does not come to that...We have the same problem here, governments, from local up the ladder spend money like crazy during good times and then when money gets tight don't have the money to maintain programs. Usually what happens is they increase taxes on people and businesses who have already cut budgets to the bone. I don't understand why they can't operate a government like a business. When times are good you pay down debt and sock some away. When times are bad you have to cut the fat and find innovative ways to control costs.
"The new, corrected data "

I stopped reading after that.
Hood. The island is divided by 3 ranges of hills. Northern , Central, southern. They all run east-west. So there are flat lands between, and all areas are prone to floods in the right/wrong conditions.
The central plains and southern areas are quite flat, so floods there occur, but are not really life-threatening. The north is subject to raging torrents of river water moving fast and furious.
Morning all

We are on the road to Atlanta to give a presentation on Post disaster response and people with disabilities. Join us in the chat and view the webcam here.
Today is November 19!
Nice weather in South Florida from November 19 to December 3 !!!!

Accuweather.com said

I live in South Florida!!!

(Not Central Florida)
:(

Tampa is in Central Florida !! Not South!! lol
Love the turkey.

I just set up my weather station at last. The last four times I started to set it up it was interupted by evacuation plans for 1. Dean, 2. Felix (pause for several months) 3. Arthur, 4. TD16. I got so superstitious that I just put the darn thing away! Finally I got it out and set it up this morning. So be prepared for sudden flare ups in the West Caribbean.....
Someone asked why the map Dr. Masters posted doesn't show the Arctic; here are a couple that do (I personally prefer maps that show the poles, the second map is the GISS temperature analysis, which puts October as the 5th warmest on record):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Also, here is a map of temperature trends during October since 1950 - notice the cooling over North America (other months and the year overall are mostly warming; this also doesn't much reflect the cool temperatures last month; if you go to 2007 instead it looks very similar):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Also of interest is that the very large positive anomalies over the Arctic are related to (paradoxically) a rather fast ice freeze-up, as freezing water releases large amounts of heat into the air.
Hood, post 44.
I have felt for a long time, that we should employ a Management team, on Salary, to manage this country. Canadians maybe ! And we could pay all the politicians to go to party wherever they chose, just dont interfere .
And if the Management does not perform, we boot them out, employ others.
This economy is worth about US$ & Billion. It should be run like a business.......
Pottery,

Thanks for the geography lesson...hard to tell from just looking at a map on the web. Still not sure what area you and your family members are in, and how threatened you are by these events. Sincerely hope that you and yours are safe and that you can keep us posted until conditions improve.
29 MichaelSTL
Thank you, sir.
But, everyone here has, more than likely, read these reports more than once.
Michael, put your jammies back on, have some milk and let me tell you another story.
Verbally assaulting free thinking people is no way a gentleman should address a subject. Calling someone and idiot for not agreeing with everything you say speaks volumes, young man.
Whether the scientist have a conservative approach or whether they look for reasons to over filter data is for the reader to decide.
Global warming may well exist. There is nothing you can do about it, Michael.
Only the price of oil will motivate the public as a whole to unite behind the search for alternative sources. Only when the pocketbook is threatened do people care what anyone thinks. Especially people that call them idiots.
"There is nothing you can do about it"
If you want to save the world, then devote your mind to developing a better battery. Convince institutions to stop worrying about parelell universes and life in other galaxy.
When the energy situation is stabilized, then you can "do your own thing".
Now go forth and do great things. We'll be proud of you.
Hey all, SJ and Port are on the road again and the video is working great at LINK
49. norfolknob

Nice to hear from you again, and thanks for the warning...
53. theshepherd 12:24 PM EST on November 19, 2008

very well said......:)
53. theshepherd

good post...many valid points, and not offensive. Thank you
I come to this site for the weather and the current weather only. I wish I did not have to see all this global warming fear inducing chatter. Global warming makes money and keeps people tht proably otherwise could not hold a job employed or at least keeps their grants alive. Global warming goes away so does their livelyhood.So the ocean is not cooling so lets just redo the numbers so they work for the global warming elite.
I updated my blog this morning if anyone would like to review.....

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
Rob. Google maps. I am in Central, east of Couva, south east of Chaguanas. North of Tortuga. Nearest town is Freeport (it is not a port!) Go south/ east from there. Village is Chickland (gotta love it). Chickland Caparo road.
My house is almost hidden by trees, a mile east of a large orange warehouse roof. Just 1/2 mile from a playing field.
I can see I'm going to have to work out this link-thingy LOL
Back to work.........
gee thanx guys
out for lunch...
Quoting theshepherd:


*POOF*

Quoting RobDaHood:


*POOF* (for agreeing with a troll)

Quoting flytyerva55:


*POOF* (for talking like an idiot)
60. pottery

Chickland
...Okay, one day I am definitely coming to visit!

Thanks!
Knew that was gonna get me poofed! I think there must be at least 3 people here not on the list. Goes to show what Michael is all about as I have never said anything negative to him. I didn't even say I agreed with shep's post, only that he made some valid points in a non combative way.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Knew that was gonna get me poofed! I think there must be at least 3 people here not on the list
Now you done it Rob. Well, I knew Shep was a gonner. He (Michael) is quite a source of amusement. :)
63. MichaelSTL 5:40 PM GMT on November 19, 2008

POOF!!!
Who is the troll? I am confused...
Quoting beell:
Who is the troll? I am confused...
Everyone on Michael STL's list are trolls which is most of us.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


*POOF*



*POOF* (for agreeing with a troll)



*POOF* (for talking like an idiot)


He still is in pampers!! wow
at least I'm in good company!
Quoting RobDaHood:
at least I'm in good company!


lol,obviously a very crowded group too
Quoting conchygirl:
Everyone on Michael STL's list are trolls which is most of us.


Thanks, I thought STL was the troll...
Quoting beell:
Who is the troll? I am confused...


I think he called me a Troll....thats the best complement i have had in a long time.
Michael,

Not for nothing, but announcing who you're putting on your ignore list is a pretty trollish behaviour.

You're accomplishing nothing and in the same turn needlessly and deliberately pissing people off. It's inflammatory and should stop.

Just giving you an outside opinion. =)
Since the publication in 2006 of the paper, Recent cooling of the upper ocean, climate scientists have been scratching their heads

They are scatching their heads because climate "science" is flawed and dictated by corrupt bureaucracies that formulate theories that are unproven yet considered law to some.

I suggest those brainiacs scratch another area on their bodies.
Wow change the data to keep your theory alive. That's what it looks like to me. I thought the theory was supposed to change with the data.
I take full responsibility for getting Michael to give us the entertainment he has provided. There should be a donation given to Presslords fund for MichaelStl entertainment that i sponsered. So make sure you all give in my name since i was the promoter....LOL
Quoting MisterPerfect:
Since the publication in 2006 of the paper, Recent cooling of the upper ocean, climate scientists have been scratching their heads

They are scatching their heads because climate "science" is flawed and dictated by corrupt bureaucracies that formulate theories that are unproven yet considered law to some.

I suggest those brainiacs scratch another area on their bodies.


Well put my friend....well put!!
Quoting TampaSpin:
I take full responsibility for getting Michael to give us the entertainment he has provided. It should be a donation given to Presslords fund for MichaelStl entertainment that i sponsered. So make sure you all give in my name since i was the promoter....LOL


LOL,for your penance,you will have to spend the next hour reading all of MichaelSTL's documents on GW and why anyone with a differing view will go to h_ll.
Quoting NEwxguy:


LOL,for your penance,you will have to spend the next hour reading all of MichaelSTL's documents on GW and why anyone with a differing view will go to h_ll.


OMG......i'm so sorry! I told everyone i needed councelling and help. Please don't condem me to such a hot place....i beg of you!!!
In all seriousness, though...whether you are an GW advocate or whether you believe it is all hogwash, I respect your opinion, as long as you are civil to others and not mean or condecending. If you really want to sway peoples beliefs, be nice, be patient and state your case in a thoughtful and considerate manner. I analyze very complex systems for a living. It's what I'm good at, and I know when I don't have sufficient data to make a decision. I strongly feel that we don't understand what is going on with GW. I feel that potential contributing factors are being overlooked, and I think there is a lot of bad science on both sides of the issue. I am not a "tree-hugger" by any means, but I do respect and am concerned about our environment. I think we should strive to make progress in preserving/restoring it. But deriding others because they don't agree with you, or blowing things out of proportinion does nothing to help the earth. MHO
Posted this on the last blog but didn't get any responses yet so I thought I'd also post it on this blog:
Hey all! I'm going to be at a conference in Greensboro, NC (which I believe is just outside of Winston-Salem?) and I was wondering if anyone in the area could tell me what I can expect weather wise for Saturday-Tuesday. I haven't seen real snow since I was about 6 years old so that would be quite a treat. I'll also be just NE of Macon, GA Tuesday-Saturday, so any idea on possibility of snow then? Hopefully someone here on the blogs knows those areas and can help me out. Thanks!
-Alicia
Quoting sullivanweather:
Michael,

Not for nothing, but announcing who you're putting on your ignore list is a pretty trollish behaviour.

You're
accomplishing nothing and in the same turn needlessly and deliberately
pissing people off. It's inflammatory and should stop.

Just giving you an outside opinion. =)


Mike has the unfortunate problem of getting the science right, but getting the personal interactions all wrong.

Mike - you'd be more effective at getting your ideas across if you were more polite.
Quoting sullivanweather:
Michael,

Not for nothing, but announcing who you're putting on your ignore list is a pretty trollish behaviour.

You're accomplishing nothing and in the same turn needlessly and deliberately pissing people off. It's inflammatory and should stop.

Just giving you an outside opinion. =)


Who cares? Most of the comments here piss me off... "they changed the data so it fits their theory"
Quoting AWeatherLover:
Posted this on the last blog but didn't get any responses yet so I thought I'd also post it on this blog:
Hey all! I'm going to be at a conference in Greensboro, NC (which I believe is just outside of Winston-Salem?) and I was wondering if anyone in the area could tell me what I can expect weather wise for Saturday-Tuesday. I haven't seen real snow since I was about 6 years old so that would be quite a treat. I'll also be just NE of Macon, GA Tuesday-Saturday, so any idea on possibility of snow then? Hopefully someone here on the blogs knows those areas and can help me out. Thanks!
-Alicia


Alicia don't see any snow for you coming....sorry.
Gotta go ......see you all this evening.....no fighting......That means you MichaelStl.....lol..you all have a good day.
Quoting HurricaneKing:
Wow change the data to keep your theory alive. That's what it looks
like to me. I thought the theory was supposed to change with the data.


If the spedometer on your car was miscalibrated would you leave it like it is and trust it, or would you have it fixed and trust it then.

That's all that happened here. Some of the many instruments that are used to measure ocean temps were giving false readings. They updated the datasets to account for the errors in the measurements. That is what was called for in this situation.

And if you read the NOAA article you'll see that the scientists working on this was thinking about changing the theory to account for the false "cooling", that was until he stumbled on the error in the intruementation.
Quoting AWeatherLover:
Posted this on the last blog but didn't get any responses yet so I thought I'd also post it on this blog:
Hey all! I'm going to be at a conference in Greensboro, NC (which I believe is just outside of Winston-Salem?) and I was wondering if anyone in the area could tell me what I can expect weather wise for Saturday-Tuesday. I haven't seen real snow since I was about 6 years old so that would be quite a treat. I'll also be just NE of Macon, GA Tuesday-Saturday, so any idea on possibility of snow then? Hopefully someone here on the blogs knows those areas and can help me out. Thanks!
-Alicia


Check my blog out it might help you!
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Who cares? Most of the comments here piss me off... "they changed the data so it fits their theory"


You should care, because as long as you at like that th eonly people who you are reaching are the one's who already understand what happened.

Why post comments if you're going to be ineffective.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Who cares? Most of the comments here piss me off... "they changed the data so it fits their theory"



Yes, you are right but you don't have to take it so personal by calling these folks idiots. I know you're smart enough to get your point across without being so cumbersome.

Just laugh to yourself, then put them on ignore. I'm sure they'll realize when you stop responding to them. =)
STL has Steve Bloom syndrome. They may be one in the same person.

There is the old adage that goes...
"Never argue with an idiot, they drag you down to their level then beat you with experience."
They have even changed data to show that it was actually cooler as well:

Original data (note the number in the upper-right corner):


Corrected data:


The correction is actually cooler? That doesn't support their "theory". In contrast, many people used this glitch to claim that the records were too unreliable - yet they fixed it in less than a day; see here for more information, including how certain people made false claims regarding the original data and the changes (also mentions the hype over the ocean cooling Dr. Masters posts about).

The amount of simply made up stuff is also impressive - the GISS press release declaring the October the 'warmest ever'? Imaginary (GISS only puts out press releases on the temperature analysis at the end of the year). The headlines trumpeting this result? Non-existent. One clearly sees the relief that finally the grand conspiracy has been rumbled, that the mainstream media will get it's comeuppance, and that surely now, the powers that be will listen to those voices that had been crying in the wilderness.

Alas! none of this will come to pass. In this case, someone's programming error will be fixed and nothing will change except for the reporting of a single month's anomaly. No heads will roll, no congressional investigations will be launched, no politicians (with one possible exception) will take note. This will undoubtedly be disappointing to many, but they should comfort themselves with the thought that the chances of this error happening again has now been diminished. Which is good, right?


(similar hype also occurred when an error affecting U.S. temperatures was corrected, with inconsequential changes to global temperatures or yearly rankings)
Quoting Dodabear:
Hey all, SJ and Port are on the road again and the video is working great at LINK


Thanks Doda!

Y'all come and join us :~)
StormJunkie: That really is cool - you all have a safe and profitable trip for the cause. Impressive that you have stuck with this project.
Please don't quote him,defeats the purpose of the ignore.
Who, me NEwx?

And good to see ya
With all of the bickering about "incorrect data", I'm surprised that nobody noticed the incorrect date that Dr. Masters posted in his blog today. The conference in Atlanta Thursday should be the 20th, not the 18th- Tuesday was the 18th.
Thanks lake, and you are correct!

Conference is the 20th
100. IKE
GW causing problems on the blog again....as usual.

I believe it exists, but don't care to debate it.


56 degrees at my house after a low this morning of 31.5 degrees.

Quoting StormJunkie:
Who, me NEwx?

And good to see ya


Hey SJ,good to see you too
In case anyone missed the link the other day, an article into how Honduras is going 10 years after Mitch, the 2nd most deadliest hurricane in recorded history.

Video report.

Written report.
The report on October being the 2nd warmest is history is wrong. The October data collected from Russia was inaccurate.

Fox News reported that readings from August were carried over for September and October. That explains why all of the Russia readings are so glaringly above normal. Just look at the map of temperature departure. Almost all of the Russian readings are 5C above normal departure.

For me, this further re-inforces the notion of a hidden agenda by the most ardent supporters of man-made global warming. I think some scientists are too arrogant and presume too much of an impact man has on the environment.

The climate is always in change, and there are greater forces which impact the climate than man. I personally believe the planet is more likely to be entering a period of global cooling due to the lack of solar activity over the past year. The sun is the biggest engine in driving our climate. When the sun goes into a dormant phase, the planet cools. I fully expect global cooling in the coming decades, and this is a much bigger problem than global warming.
hey folks. I see GW has heated this blog to the boiling point =/

31 here clear blue sky. Going to 19 tonight.
Quoting Bonedog:
hey folks. I see GW has heated this blog to the boiling point =/

31 here clear blue sky. Going to 19 tonight.


Hey bone.

Well ABW (Anthropological Blog Warming) is definitely a phenomenon no-one can argue against....
oh forgot wind chill is 26 =)

pond has frozen over and the Lake has started freezing long sheets of ice from the shores twords the middle.

Very early for this, haven't seen the Lake get ice much before Christmas usually
LOL Cotillion. Yea it usually does around here. I just stay to the sidelines and chuckle.

Hows the weather on the other side of the pond.
Quoting Bonedog:
LOL Cotillion. Yea it usually does around here. I just stay to the sidelines and chuckle.

Hows the weather on the other side of the pond.


Not too bad, in the 50s, overcast with showers today. Going to get progressively colder and blustery over the next 2-3 days. What fun.

Yours?
Quoting Bonedog:
hey folks. I see GW has heated this blog to the boiling point =/

31 here clear blue sky. Going to 19 tonight.


Hey Bone!

Sorry for the noise...
afternoon Bone,yup,definitely warmup in here,wish we could get some of this heat for outside.
Cotillion staying in the freezer here till at least the 27th with snow showers on and off as shortwaves pass across the area.

Rob no worries. I know how loud it gets in here with the debate. Like I said its always good for a chuckle. Some great information gets posted but is totaly lost because of the way its said.

NE LOL yea someone needs to tell old man weather he's a little early.
Quoting ralphmtsu:
The report on October being the 2nd warmest is history is wrong. The October data collected from Russia was inaccurate.

Fox News reported that readings from August were carried over for September and October. That explains why all of the Russia readings are so glaringly above normal.


The results I posted today are correct. It was the 2nd warmest October on record. The results were released yesterday, and have been corrected for the error that was noticed in early November, and existed in the data for less than 24 hours. See:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/11/mountains-and-molehills/

Jeff Masters
112. JeffMasters

Thank you for the clarification!
Thank you Dr. Masters for the clarification.
Here is all I am going to say on the issue (just have to throw my 2 cents in)

The best I have heard for or against the argument is this.

Earth has had warm periods in the past and also cool periods. Yes man has contributed to climate decline due inpart to pollution and exaust gases. As Earth warms due to these factors natural mechanisms inplace that science my not yet recognize will come into effect to regulate the climate once again. Are data sets are from a breif window of history as far as reliable data goes, so tring to extrapolate from this limited data set may infact lead to adverse conclusions that may not come into effect due to natural processes yet to take effect.

Like I said, that stament isn't mine entirely but is part of my personal opinion but its seems to be one of the best explinations.

Ok now back to the regualrly schedualed blogging =)
Quoting JeffMasters:


The results I posted today are correct. It was the 2nd warmest October on record. The results were released yesterday, and have been corrected for the error that was noticed in early November, and existed in the data for less than 24 hours. See:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/11/mountains-and-molehills/

Jeff Masters


That also, as far as I know, only affected what GISS reported (though they made no such announcements about the warmest October on record); see comment 93 which I posted regarding that (as an example where they correct data that ends up showing less warming, since many people here are using the ocean cooling error as a sign that data was "manipulated" to show warming).
Quoting Bonedog:
Here is all I am going to say on the issue (just have to throw my 2 cents in)

The best I have heard for or against the argument is this.

Earth has had warm periods in the past and also cool periods. Yes man has contributed to climate decline due inpart to pollution and exaust gases. As Earth warms due to these factors natural mechanisms inplace that science my not yet recognize will come into effect to regulate the climate once again. Are data sets are from a breif window of history as far as reliable data goes, so tring to extrapolate from this limited data set may infact lead to adverse conclusions that may not come into effect due to natural processes yet to take effect.

Like I said, that stament isn't mine entirely but is part of my personal opinion but its seems to be one of the best explinations.

Ok now back to the regualrly schedualed blogging =)


with that statement you are probably going to end up on MichaelSTL's ignore list
awsome example of how cold the air is over the eastern US. Look how the clouds are forming off the coast in the direction of the wind

Wow. It makes sense. Willis's cooling ocean for '04 - '06 seemed so hard to stomach at the time because it didn't match up with so many other checks (for examples checkout Dr Master's recommended reading) & geez 2005 (one of the hottest years) was right in the middle. Shame the efforts lost in the wrong direction & the media at the time. I remember us wondering where the ocean heat had gone. Made us rethink the whole El Niño as the ocean's main vent thing. Also brought on that sudden divergance in the numbers. Brought alot of doubt suddenly, even though if one just looked at any other data but the ocean, even the ice that sat on it, everything pointed to a climate shift.

People's negative reactions to the whole climate change issue amazes me. (especially factoring chemistry & physics) but that aside, in all reality it couldn't have more to do with the weather or long term forcasting the weather. There are those that like to live in the present, who don't want to look at it. At least not by that name. It in every way is tied to the now, like the temp today, food shortages, fires, many of the wars & negotiations. We are people & we can do anything, look at us chattin online...
121. Inyo
Why is this blog full of anti-science weirdos?

There is 'NO global warming conspiracy'! Think about it... NO ONE has anything to gain from it, except maybe Al Gore. Scientists 'benefit' from money to do research, but concocting a theory isn't a good way to do that... if they did that, it would be proven false, and they'd just lose a ton of funding later.

To find a conspiracy, it's usually to look at where the motivation is, and where the money is going/coming from. Both of these factors point directly right, not left, towards the oil companies, Republicans, and other AGW denialists.

I wish I could travel forward 10 years and read what your ridiculous denialists excuses look like at that point.
LOL NE =) You might now to for bringing it up LOL
Quoting Cotillion:


Not too bad, in the 50s, overcast with showers today. Going to get progressively colder and blustery over the next 2-3 days. What fun.

Yours?


You may have to get used to that this winter; here is a post by Sullivanweather in Ricky's blog (also directly related to the cold in the eastern U.S.):

Quoting sullivanweather:
As stated in comment #91, the reason for the anomalous Greenland warmth is the anomalously strong North Atlantic ridge that has been in place. This pattern shows no signs of abatement in the next week to two weeks so the warmth over southern Greenland should continue. Meanwhile, this blocking ridge is forcing the maintenance of the anomalously deep eastern US trough and the ensuing downstream troughiness over western Europe.

Sometimes these types of weather patterns becomes semi-permanent seasonal features that could deliver some of the coldest/warmest months/seasons on record.

Much stronger representations of this North Atlantic ridge were present during the winters of 1946-47 and 1962-63 which lead to some of the coldest recorded winters in western Europe.


Here is an image to illustrate:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Quoting MichaelSTL:


You may have to get used to that this winter; here is a post by Sullivanweather in Ricky's blog (also directly related to the cold in the eastern U.S.):



Here is an image to illustrate:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


Thanks for that, STL. Eugh, looks like a harsh winter ahead. Well, we've had a good stint without one, and it'll kill off all the tropical bugs and creatures we've acquired as of late...

As long as it transpires into a warm summer!
Quoting ralphmtsu:
The report on October being the 2nd warmest is history is wrong. The October data collected from Russia was inaccurate.

Fox News reported that readings from August were carried over for September and October. That explains why all of the Russia readings are so glaringly above normal. Just look at the map of temperature departure. Almost all of the Russian readings are 5C above normal departure.

For me, this further re-inforces the notion of a hidden agenda by the most ardent supporters of man-made global warming. I think some scientists are too arrogant and presume too much of an impact man has on the environment.

The climate is always in change, and there are greater forces which impact the climate than man. I personally believe the planet is more likely to be entering a period of global cooling due to the lack of solar activity over the past year. The sun is the biggest engine in driving our climate. When the sun goes into a dormant phase, the planet cools. I fully expect global cooling in the coming decades, and this is a much bigger problem than global warming.
Interesting Ralph. Thanks for your perspective. Lively conversation is great - the negative responses not so!
Quoting Inyo:
Why is this blog full of anti-science weirdos?

There is 'NO global warming conspiracy'! Think about it... NO ONE has anything to gain from it, except maybe Al Gore. Scientists 'benefit' from money to do research, but concocting a theory isn't a good way to do that... if they did that, it would be proven false, and they'd just lose a ton of funding later.

To find a conspiracy, it's usually to look at where the motivation is, and where the money is going/coming from. Both of these factors point directly right, not left, towards the oil companies, Republicans, and other AGW denialists.

I wish I could travel forward 10 years and read what your ridiculous denialists excuses look like at that point.


I second this.

Also, here is a good link (for those who doubt) that explains the history of the science, going back to the 1800s; here is a timeline. In particular:

1859
Tyndall discovers that some gases block infrared radiation. He suggests that changes in the concentration of the gases could bring climate change. =>Other gases

1896
Arrhenius publishes first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO2. =>Simple models


(you can also see why I am always annoyed when people point to Al Gore as "inventing" global warming and such; to me he isn't anybody special, aside from attempting to educate the public, and not even the best source for information, especially for those who want more specific details)
127. Inyo
Quoting ralphmtsu:
The report on October being the 2nd warmest is history is wrong. The October data collected from Russia was inaccurate.

Fox News
reported


Wait, did someone cite Fox News as a source? That's like citing an article for The Onion... a sprinkling of truth in with a bunch of lies... but the Onion is a lot funnier.
128. Inyo

As for Al Gore inventing greenhouse warming, you have it wrong, he invented the Internet Tubes.
121. Inyo

What I don't understand is why the folks here that seem to want to promote global warming feel compelled to jump in with finger pointing and name calling. Most of the people here are pro science especially with reguard to weather. Most people here are willing to listen to others who ask questions or propose theories in a polite and sensitive manner. When you jump in with a post like that and point fingers at republicans, you are immediately putting a large percentange of your audience on the defensive. Not all democrats are Al Gore clones and not all republicans are oil dealin' smoke belchin' fat cats. Not a way to win friends and influence people.

Pretend for a moment that you are a member of St. Michaels Church of the Warming Globe. You are tasked to go out and win converts. You could go round them up at gunpoint and force them to accept your faith, or you could go out into the world and befriend them, help them to learn, show them the light and treat them with respect and dignity. Which to you think would produce the more effective recruits?
shhhhhhh dont say the T word.
Rob I belive that man has contributed to the warming trend but I also beleive that earth has failsafes to return to equilibrum at a certain point so what does that make me?
My own personal opinion on GW is that it does not matter whether it exists or not. Whether it's caused by man or it's entirely natural. It's entirely a debate for academics.

What has been mooted as good ways of saving the earth? Using renewable energy sources. Not using cars that pump out galleons of harmful fumes. Recycling what you use. And so on.

Comes under the banner "common sense". It should be done anyway, because it's a good thing to do. Makes the air cleaner for your children, and your children's children. Renewable energy so we're always on top of the situation, recycling so we don't have stockpiles of waste before we run out.

And so on.

So, if GW isn't anything but natural cycle, or indeed a figment of the imagination, you've done your bit for 'common sense'. If GW does turn out to be a very real threat, then you've done your bit to help the planet.

Win-win situation.

[/tirade.]
Rob: You are asking an awful lot of them! LOL
Back to work, and will return for the night crew and all the fun antics.
Afternoon Bonedog
Looks like you will have some steep heating bills for the next 10 days or so!!!
Bone,you think along the same lines I do on GW,I have no doubt that man has effected our climate in so many ways,but the environment does seem to be able to adapt,and sometimes in not a nice way.That's not to say we shouldn't be doing do things to help our planet,but I hate the doomsayers predicting the end of the world by the end of the decade,it serves the issue much better if we have intelligent conversation,and exchange ideas,much more is accomplished.
Quoting Bonedog:
Rob I belive that man has contributed to the warming trend but I also beleive that earth has failsafes to return to equilibrum at a certain point so what does that make me?


A reasonable non-alarmist who has the right to an opionion? Bone, I think the man-made part of the equation has been over-hyped. I think the natural part has been under-rated. Perhaps we have simply accellerated a natural cycle. I think we have the capacity to make our planet un-inhabitable, but haven't reached that point yet. The earth does self-regulate, but how far it will swing before a correction I can't say. Like I've said before, there is good and bad science on both sides of this issue, and I haven't made up my mind just yet where it may ultimately lead.

One more thing I think...I think I need to get out of this chair for a while...Later
Just in to take a break from the four letter W word (WORK). Anybody read The Life and Death of Planet Earth- How the New Science of Astrobiology Charts the Ultimate Fate of Our World. By P. Ward D. Brownlee.
Excellent book.
Quoting Inyo:

As for Al Gore inventing greenhouse warming, you have it wrong, he invented the Internet Tubes.


Incidentally, the claims about Gore "inventing" the Internet are also wrong and another example of media spin.
Afternoon MissNadia. Yup furnace has been running nonstop since last wednesday. Oil tank is still 3/4 full so I have no worries.

At least the price of heating oil is finally coming out of the stratasphere.
Uhh Jeff... it turns out they used Eurasia's temperature data from August for both September and October. October 2008 wasn't the second-hottest on record.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/11/16/do1610.xml

This kind of error only comes from one of two sources:

1) Abject incompetence.

2) Blatant fraud.
Quoting Inyo:
Quoting ralphmtsu:
The report on October being the 2nd warmest is history is wrong. The October data collected from Russia was inaccurate.

Fox News
reported


Wait, did someone cite Fox News as a source? That's like citing an article for The Onion... a sprinkling of truth in with a bunch of lies... but the Onion is a lot funnier.


LOL

If you Google "Faux News" (a common term for them), the first result is... you guessed it - Fox News! In any event, that was overexcitement over a minor error that was quickly corrected (they have also added safeguards against a repeat).
"but I hate the doomsayers predicting the end of the world by the end of the decade,it serves the issue much better if we have intelligent conversation,and exchange ideas,much more is accomplished."

Maybe you could point us to someone who is "predicting the end of the world by the end of the decade." Sorry, but your call for reasoned conversation is sharply undermined by your resorting to hyperbole. There seems to be lots of folks here offering opinions, and arguing for their right to express them unchallenged, but so very few actually talking science (MichaelSTL being an obvious exception.) If you take issue with Dr. Master's post, let's hear a good reasoned argument (fact and citations, please) why you think what he has posted is wrong. After all, you know what opinions are like and, yes, everyone has one.

BTW - When I say citations, I'm decidedly not talking about Fox News or The Daily Telegraph.
Thanks Rob at least I am not a wierdo or something else LOL ;)
144. Inyo
Quoting RobDaHood:
121. Inyo

What I don't understand is why the folks here that seem to want to promote global warming feel compelled to jump in with finger pointing and name calling. Most of the people here are pro science especially with reguard to weather. Most people here are willing to listen to others who ask questions or propose theories in a polite and sensitive manner. When you jump in with a post like that and point fingers at republicans, you are immediately putting a large percentange of your audience on the defensive. Not all democrats are Al Gore clones and not all republicans are oil dealin' smoke belchin' fat cats. Not a way to win friends and influence people.

Pretend for a moment that you are a member of St. Michaels Church of the Warming Globe. You are tasked to go out and win converts. You could go round them up at gunpoint and force them to accept your faith, or you could go out into the world and befriend them, help them to learn, show them the light and treat them with respect and dignity. Which to you think would produce the more effective recruits?


Well... I am not trying to win converts, obviously, as you are correct that is not a good way to do it. And of course not all republicans are global warming denialists (for instance, John McCain isn't!). But almost all global warming denialists are republicans/oil company people. The democrats have their own problems, but I won't address them here.

However on this blog I see a lot of willful ignorance and downright lies. Of course, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to climate change but the way some people here talk about it as a 'conspiracy' is silly, frustrating, and completely illogical, you know? It is a weird, convoluted 'theory' which amkes a lot more sense than the most logical idea: most climate scientists agree that human caused global warming is occuring, but disagree on the details.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


LOL

If you Google "Faux News" (a common term for them), the first result is... you guessed it - Fox News! In any event, that was overexcitement over a minor error that was quickly corrected (they have also added safeguards against a repeat).

An example of Google-cracking.

Refer to my recent post: it has an actual source stating HOW the October 2008 report was inaccurate.
146. Inyo
And yes, natural factors are huge, for instance drought cycles in California have been going on for a LONG time before humans had any effect on the climate. Also, I was kidding about Al Gore :)
The Telegraph isn't bad, one of the more reputable papers.

Though, unsurprisingly, it's quite right wing.
Here they come out of the woodwork,I knew I should have gone for the root canal,would have been so much more fun
Quoting orlandorays:
Uhh Jeff... it turns out they used Eurasia's temperature data from August for both September and October. October 2008 wasn't the second-hottest on record. In fact, it was actually below average.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/11/16/do1610.xml


Not another one... can't believe all of the *** that one little error has generated (and it wasn't below average either, they corrected it, it was also the GISS data, not the NCDC data, which is different, that Dr. Masters posted)...

Original data (note the number in the upper-right corner):


Corrected data:


Below average? I can't believe what some pieces of garbage will post... no wonder so many people are confused and skeptical (I of course am not, probably because I only view news from reputable science sites, IMO the media is Public Enemy #1 - they are also to blame for the "1970s global cooling hype"). See here for more information, including just how some people over-reacted; for example:

The amount of simply made up stuff is also impressive - the GISS press release declaring the October the 'warmest ever'? Imaginary (GISS only puts out press releases on the temperature analysis at the end of the year). The headlines trumpeting this result? Non-existent. One clearly sees the relief that finally the "grand conspiracy" has been rumbled, that the mainstream media will get it's comeuppance, and that surely now, the powers that be will listen to those voices that had been crying in the wilderness.
best quote about GW or CC...

British scientist Jane Francis, who maintains, "... What we should do is be more aware of the fact that it is changing and that we should be ready to adapt to the change."

Quoting Cotillion:
The Telegraph isn't bad, one of the more reputable papers.

Though, unsurprisingly, it's quite right wing.

I understand "right wing" to you can never be right. But the evidence is real. August 2008's data was recycled in two succeeding months for Russia, making it look like there was an Arctic hot spot, when other data was quite obvious in the fact that the Arctic Ocean ice sheet right now is 30% broader than it was this time last year.

As I said... either incompetence, or fraud.
"The Telegraph isn't bad, one of the more reputable papers."

I think the point is that it is a newspaper, not a scientific journal. Useful as a starting point but certainly subject to verification.
151, not quite.

I occasionally buy the Telegraph, for a different opinion. Same with the Guardian. Both reputable, but both can be wrong.

But uhm... it does have more ice cover than last year. That doesn't make it not a hot spot. That ice isn't also so deep either. GW is about trends and correlations.
"As I said... either incompetence, or fraud."

Or possibly a lack of understanding on your part?
144. Inyo

Thank you.

132. Cotillion

Nice post. I agree that we need to work towards cleaning up out act either way.
and the blog goes dead LOL
157. Inyo
Yeah I guess the 'obvious' solution is to reduce our dependence on oil (especially foreign oil) as much as we can while conducting unbiased research on the climate and the many factors that influence it. Unfortunately some people (mostly from one side of the political spectrum) throw tantrums any time any evidence comes out that runs contrary to what they want to believe. Science and politics just don't mix very well.
Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning
4:00 AM WDT November 20 2008

At 18:00 PM UTC Tropical Cyclone Anika - Category One (994 hPa) located at 12.5S 100.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts up to 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east-southeast at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale-Force Winds
==================
90 NM in the northeastern quadrant
60 NM in the southwestern quadrant
60 NM in the southeastern quadrant
80 NM in the northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.9S 102.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 15.0S 104.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.8S 108.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 17.2S 112.4E - (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================
Deep convection has been located on the western side of the system consistent with the prevailing moderate NE shear. Microwave imagery shows a tight low level cloud signature and recent images seem to show some enhancement in the convection near the centre.

Dvorak: CI=DT=3.0 based on 0.6 wrap [note small but tight wrap] and time averaged shear pattern. Some intensification is forecast, particularly if the convection extends to the forward left quadrant [east of the center] given the translation speed. Beyond 24 hours the system should begin to weaken as it experiences an increase in wind shear due to the approach of a mid-level trough

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number THREE
18:00 PM UTC November 19 2008

Tropical Cyclone Warning #3 (1800z 19NOV)
======================================
At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 9.6S 80.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 10 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Squally weather exist within 100 NM from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the eastern sector

20-25 knots and moderate to rough seas within 60 NM radius from the center reaching 30 knots in the northern sector and volocity in the southern sector

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 10.0S 83.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 9.5S 87.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)

Additional Information
=======================
A small and compact convective activity is organizing, wrapping above the low level circulation center. The system evolves within a neutral to favorable environment for intensification during the next 24 hours. Sufficient oceanic heat content, fair low level feeding, poor vertical wind shear, but rather good outflow (neutral upper level divergence, with few cirrus) in high level. It could reach temporarily the tropical storm intensity. beyond, northerly wind shear should not allow the system to maintain its intensity. The system is accellerating eastward. NWP are in good agreement. The system should track eastward under the steering influence of equatorward well established westerlies winds. The system should cross 90E on Friday.
Interesting; NHC released its best track for all systems this year and they are as followed.

Arthur; no change in strength. Link

Bertha; no change from 125 Link

Cristobal, dolly, Edouard, and Fay no change in strength.

Gustav up to 155 MPH Link

Ike up to 155 MPH; Makes landfall as a Major Hurricane in Galveston.
Link

Omar up to Category 4 (as expected.)
Link
Well,it may be warm in here,but outside I'm at 29 deg and falling fast,windchill is 20
It is clear that orlandorays is an utter denialist who will believe anything that they feed him...

PS: For the Arctic ice and temperatures, check this out - definite proof that the warmth was real, as it was not just at the surface (surface observations only measure at the surface - duh!), paradoxically the ice growth and warmth are related as freezing water releases heat (more ice than last year is also invalid as it is still very low, last year was an anomaly, though we nearly reached it anyway during the minimum, ice extent is also mostly declining during the summer, so it is actually refreezing faster in the winter). Also, the satellite data say so as well.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Note that if you go to the link above, you can see the other layers of the atmosphere; at higher levels it is actually cooling, which is to be expected as greenhouse gasses trap heat near the surface:

During global warming, the atmosphere near the surface is supposed to warm at least as fast as the surface warms, while the upper layers are supposed to cool much faster than the surface warms.


(this only applies to warming caused by greenhouse gasses; for comparison, if warming was due to the sun getting brighter, which it is not and actually doing the opposite; e.g. "Spotless Sun: Blankest Year of the Space Age" (this of course doesn't mean that the sun has no influence at all, just that any influence is being overridden, it would be even warmer now if it had stayed constant), the upper layers would also warm)
I think we've had much more reliable links about the GISS error than the telegraph posted in the last 50 comments or so. Like the one Jeff left in comment 112. The original error had OCT as the hottest Oct ever, it has been corrected to the second hottest. It didn't carry over 2 months & it was a software error..

Some complain of others tact in presenting the science. Funny thing is that's a small reflection of one of the larger problems in the discussion of climate change. Usually those that spent a life wrapping their heads around the numbers haven't had the time to sharpen their social skills. But then again they don't have to be polite to be right.
NE same here sun going down and so is the temp.

Looking at 29 wc 20 going lower. Forecasted to be 19 by my house tonight
Bone, in case things get too slow in here, I sent ya a mail.

I'm gonna break til tonight.

Have a good one.
165. IKE
Stock market finishes below 8,000....

DOW
427.47
-5.07%
7,997.28


Global warming won't matter much if there's no economy left.
Quoting Bonedog:
NE same here sun going down and so is the temp.

Looking at 29 wc 20 going lower. Forecasted to be 19 by my house tonight


Bone,have you seen hints at a coastal system for next week,looks interesting
lmao,as always Ike you mess things up with the real truth
Quoting IKE:
Stock market finishes below 8,000....

DOW
427.47
-5.07%
7,997.28


Global warming won't matter much if there's no economy left.


lmao,as always Ike you muddy the issue with the real truth
MichaelSTL I can't believe what some pieces of garbage will post...
I'm flagging you Mike...I lurk allot and you seem to cause trouble to anyone who disagrees with you..no mater the blog.
169. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
lmao,as always Ike you mess things up with the real truth

lmao,as always Ike you muddy the issue with the real truth


Here's more truth....

Dow below 8,000 - 1st time since '03

Our economy is tanking...big-time.

Thank God I'm self-employed and can't get laid off**I HOPE**
170. IKE
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
MichaelSTL I can't believe what some pieces of garbage will post...
I'm flagging you Mike...I lurk allot and you seem to cause trouble to anyone who disagrees with you..no mater the blog.


Global warming causes more problems on this website then the presidential election.

I stay out of the debate.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
MichaelSTL I can't believe what some pieces of garbage will post...
I'm flagging you Mike...I lurk allot and you seem to cause trouble to anyone who disagrees with you..no mater the blog.


LOL...
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
MichaelSTL I can't believe what some pieces of garbage will post...
I'm flagging you Mike...I lurk allot and you seem to cause trouble to anyone who disagrees with you..no mater the blog.


Riiiight... and I am adding you to my sh!t lists... as you are so stupid not to realize that I was talking about disreputable newspapers (i.e. Telegraph), not people (which I think you read that as).
Rest of winter season,not mentioning GW the rest of the offseason,warming is not the issue for the northeast right now.
Read this again:

Below average? I can't believe what some pieces of garbage will post... no wonder so many people are confused and skeptical (I of course am not, probably because I only view news from reputable science sites, IMO the media is Public Enemy #1 - they are also to blame for the "1970s global cooling hype"). See here for more information, including just how some people over-reacted; for example:


Let's see... what could "garbage" be referring to? (hint - read a bit further past the first sentence, starting with "IMO...")
NE some models are showing it but looks to be far out to sea. I have been watching them closely though. Might have one by next week
Quoting Bonedog:
NE some models are showing it but looks to be far out to sea. I have been watching them closely though. Might have one by next week


yeh,I meant next week,talking about a trough digging in and sending one up the coast.
isn't the sun at some point going to expand and burn the planet up
Wow, DOW finished below 8,000.
Yea NE with these troughs digging so low one will eventually pinch off and cause a storm. If ti happens while we are in this freezer we'll have one heck of a dig out
177,

Don't worry, you won't be alive to see it.

Try a few more billion years.
Quoting afarmer:
isn't the sun at some point going to expand and burn the planet up


Yes, though long before that (about a billion years) it will get too hot for any life; the Sun has been gradually brightening since it formed, it was originally only about 70% as bright as today (though it should be noted that global temperatures were at times even warmer than today back then due mostly to far higher levels of greenhouse gasses (continental drift also had a big impact on temperatures in the past, currently the configuration favors lower temperatures), though we needn't worry about that since that was before there was oxygen in the atmosphere, thus allowing large amounts of methane to build up; also see this.
182. Inyo
I wonder if as the sun slowly warms Mars will somehow have surface water/an atmosphere again, and will be able to support life, in a couple of billion years. I guess we'll never know!
OK i think we need a survey who thinks the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is 100% over no more TDs
Well, here goes...

Earlier when posters here were focusing on the financial crisis, I looked for other sources to increase my understanding. I came across the blog below which I would recommend be read in full.

I believe the points raised by Brooks have bearing on our "heated debates", which arise all too often, (including the debates about individual decisions to evacuate or not evacuate).

I have copied portions, but would recommend a full reading.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/opinion/28brooks.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

The Behavioral Revolution

By DAVID BROOKS
Published: October 27, 2008

Roughly speaking, there are four steps to every decision. First, you perceive a situation. Then you think of possible courses of action. Then you calculate which course is in your best interest. Then you take the action.

Over the past few centuries, public policy analysts have assumed that step three is the most important. Economic models and entire social science disciplines are premised on the assumption that people are mostly engaged in rationally calculating and maximizing their self-interest.
...

Perceiving a situation seems, at first glimpse, like a remarkably simple operation. You just look and see what’s around. But the operation that seems most simple is actually the most complex, it’s just that most of the action takes place below the level of awareness. Looking at and perceiving the world is an active process of meaning-making that shapes and biases the rest of the decision-making chain.

Economists and psychologists have been exploring our perceptual biases for four decades now, ...

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has been deeply influenced by this stream of research. Taleb not only has an explanation for what’s happening, he saw it coming. His popular books “Fooled by Randomness” and “The Black Swan” were broadsides at the risk-management models used in the financial world and beyond.
...

Taleb believes that our brains evolved to suit a world much simpler than the one we now face. His writing is idiosyncratic, but he does touch on many of the perceptual biases that distort our thinking: our tendency to see data that confirm our prejudices more vividly than data that contradict them; our tendency to overvalue recent events when anticipating future possibilities; our tendency to spin concurring facts into a single causal narrative; our tendency to applaud our own supposed skill in circumstances when we’ve actually benefited from dumb luck.
...

This meltdown is not just a financial event, but also a cultural one. It’s a big, whopping reminder that the human mind is continually trying to perceive things that aren’t true, and not perceiving them takes enormous effort.

--------------------------------------

I hope that I can continue to make the effort to find, and correct, perceptions of mine which are not true, and I thank you who help in that endeavor.

CRS
Quoting Inyo:
I wonder if as the sun slowly warms Mars will somehow have surface water/an atmosphere again, and will be able to support life, in a couple of billion years. I guess we'll never know!

Could be, but other food for thought could be such an increase in sun spots during the red giant begining phases that the fire far proceeds the oven and reduces half the solar system to carbon. Who knows???
184 CRS
Right. It's was called subjectivety vs. objectivety 50 years ago.
Nothing new, just restated with an eastern mindset.
187. IKE
Global cooling....

Record Report

Statement as of 11:07 am EST on November 19, 2008

... Record daily minimum temperatures set at Tallahassee and
Apalachicola this morning...

A record low temperature of 25 degrees was set at Tallahassee this
morning. This breaks the old record of 29 degrees set in 1990.

A record low temperature of 33 degrees was set at Apalachicola this
morning. This breaks the old record of 34 degrees set in 1951.
184 CRS - Yep, problem is you first have to realize that your thinking is biased by past experience. People usually see exactly what they are looking for.

186. theshepherd - hey shep! Ya have a good day?
Not that anyone cares but I did some research and found over the past 50 years 17 tropical or subtropical storms have formed on or past this date and 6 of which became hurricanes meaning there is around a 1/3 chance of another storm forming and around a 12% chance of another hurricane if there were an average year. But this is an over active year an I found that over active years have more storms past Nov 18
Dr. Masters
Maybe you have an insight beyond my reading of the today's writings.
What was the factor or factors that led to the decision to disregard the "too cool" data from the Argo Floats and the "too warm" data from the XBT's which prompted a revision of facts?
The article did not reveal any specific defect in the apparatus, other than they did not fit.
Anyone with any "knowledge" of the circumstances please help me get over this hump.
191. IKE
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Not that anyone cares but I did some research and found over the past 50 years 17 tropical or subtropical storms have formed on or past this date and 6 of which became hurricanes meaning there is around a 1/3 chance of another storm forming and around a 12% chance of another hurricane if there were an average year. But this is an over active year an I found that over active years have more storms past Nov 18



270 hours...
49 minutes left and it's over.


189 all4
We all care. But, I think the unseasonal cold will be around too long and thwart any chances.
Maybe next year.
Just my two cents....
Yeh, I'll pre-order my crow now and say that Paloma was the last one.
Impact wise for CONUS... the 08 H-season is History.

Not likely to see a Impact,but a Neutercane or Cold Core Eastern Low is still in the window of Possibility.

ESL GOES-12 Java Animation Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Link

Ike up to 155 MPH; Makes landfall as a Major Hurricane in Galveston.
Link


Don't know where you're seeing that but looking at both of these, the winds never exceeded 125 kts (145 mph). I think you have wind speed confused with wind radii in each quadrant (the last four numbers in the CSV file).
I see all this GW or temperature record crap has some people off the deep end. Nothing from the norm...
Quoting djbarker79:


Don't know where you're seeing that but looking at both of these, the winds never exceeded 125 kts (145 mph). I think you have wind speed confused with wind radii in each quadrant (the last four numbers in the CSV file).


Nope, those are OFFICAL from the National Hurricane Center, they ran the best track. Dorvak readings were at one point at that intensity. I was reading the right ones, anyone can confirm this.

AL, 09, 2008090406, , BEST, 0, 224N, 550W, 125, 935, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 75, 120, 1008, 175, 15, 155, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IKE, D, 12, NEQ, 360, 180, 75, 300
AL, 09, 2008090406, , BEST, 0, 224N, 550W, 125, 935, HU, 50, NEQ, 75, 50, 40, 60, 1008, 175, 15, 155, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IKE, D, 12, NEQ, 360, 180, 75, 300
AL, 09, 2008090406, , BEST, 0, 224N, 550W, 125, 935, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 175, 15, 155, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IKE, D, 12, NEQ, 360, 180, 75, 300
Not much tropical weather to talk about, although mm5fsu-gfs is drunk again and predicting a severe hurricane in the south Caribbean :P . In S. Ontario, we're getting yet another snowfall of 2 inches tonight. Talking about global warming, if you haven't heard already, the long-dreaded methane clathrates were, this September, found to be melting. Can you guess where? Right, it's in the Russian Arctic ocean. This has even been proposed as a tipping point in climate change by releasing large amounts of methane as the temperature warms (along with the permafrost methane in Siberia, which is also melting), and is also thought to have contributed to the Permian-Triassic mass extinction. Here are some links to indulge in. Link, Link, Link, Link, Link, Link, Link, Link, Link.
Just few bits of news from Australia
Alice Springs records wettest November in 135 yrs Link

Rain causes flooding across Sydney CBD and suburbs
Link

Major flooding hits southeast Queensland after big rain
Link

Southeast Queensland deluge smashes rainfall records
Link
Storm forces road closures
Link
As you can see the storm season has really started here in Australia. We don't just have Thunderstorms to watch out for we now have Tropical Cyclone Anika
Link

Link on its way towards North West Western Australia.
Will keep you all updated.
Cheers AussieStorm
thats good aussie need the rain been dry over there for years to bad for the damage but it can't be all good i guess at least the drought is over for areas that got the rain
Quoting afarmer:
isn't the sun at some point going to expand and burn the planet up
in about 10 million years it will become a red giant and engulf the inner planets all the way to mars
hey there all, how was the day its chilly here in z-hills FL. 41 outside might make it into the upper 20's tonight Brrrrr
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wow, DOW finished below 8,000.


The world economy is falling apart there will be massive reduse in the production soon in all industries to save the companies, thats means that thounsands of peoplea are going to lose their job. At this point we are in a worlwide drepresion warning. Hard times the next few years.



its 28 wind chill of 23 with snow falling about 2 to 3 inches on the ground with another 3 to 5 to come
Keeper, is the snow your getting normal or is it early for this time of year. boy sometimes i miss the snow!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Not much tropical weather to talk about, although mm5fsu-gfs is drunk again and predicting a severe hurricane in the south Caribbean :P . In S. Ontario, we're getting yet another snowfall of 2 inches tonight. Talking about global warming, if you haven't heard already, the long-dreaded methane clathrates were, this September, found to be melting. Can you guess where? Right, it's in the Russian Arctic ocean. This has even been proposed as a tipping point in climate change by releasing large amounts of methane as the temperature warms (along with the permafrost methane in Siberia, which is also melting), and is also thought to have contributed to the Permian-Triassic mass extinction. Here are some links to indulge in. Link, Link, Link, Link, Link, Link, Link, Link, Link.

Also, if Gustav and Ike are both up to 155 mph, does that make them cat. 5s?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Also, if Gustav and Ike are both up to 155 mph, does that make them cat. 5s?


Nope.

Cat 5 starts at 156mph.

(That 1mph makes all the difference.)
Quoting theshepherd:
Dr. Masters
Maybe you have an insight beyond my reading of the today's writings.
What was the factor or factors that led to the decision to disregard the "too cool" data from the Argo Floats and the "too warm" data from the XBT's which prompted a revision of facts?
The article did not reveal any specific defect in the apparatus, other than they did not fit.
Anyone with any "knowledge" of the circumstances please help me get over this hump.


quoting the recommended reading..

According to the float data on his computer screen, almost the entire Atlantic Ocean had gone cold. Unless you believe The Day After Tomorrow, Willis jokes, impossibly cold.

First, I identified some new Argo floats that were giving bad data; they were too cool compared to other sources of data during the time period.

A month before, Willis had seen a paper by Viktor Gouretski and Peter Koltermann that showed a comparison of XBT data collected over the past few decades to temperatures obtained in the same ocean areas by more accurate techniques, such as bottled water samples collected during research cruises. Compared to more accurate observations, the XBTs were too warm. The problem was more pronounced at some points in time than others.



In the end incorrect readings that were too high & too low were tossed, not an adjustment to make things fit. They were deamed incorrect after being compared to other results from the same time & area.
Wind speeds are cool and all,but its Impact that brings the Landfalling destruction.

And Surge Impact is the evil doer to Coastlines.

As a rule, I always refer to the storms Potential to Impact,rather than focus on Wind speed.

Its the Hurricanes overall Size and Amount of Surge produced that the Human element has to prepare and or evacuate from.

Ike once again showed Thousands that its the water,not the winds that bring the death and chaos at the coast and for Miles inland.
97% of all Hurricane deaths are from the Storm Surge.
Re: Yesterday's blog entry, comments 395-400.
Umm...eww?? O_O
209,

Case in point: Cyclone Nargis.

The deadliest cyclone of the year. Perhaps of the decade.
Dr. Jeff Masters Interview on Cyclone Nargis

ReliefWEB Link


Serving the information needs of the humanitarian relief community.
*Ahem*...Link..."AH1" is me.
Aussie~ congrats on the rain:) I've watched yout headlines go from "killer storms" to "Doughts end is saving Aussie's economy" over the last few days.
i guess this crap will never end....

Correcting Ocean Cooling: NASA Adjusts Data from Buoys

when the "data" is inconvenient...well, multiply by zero and add what you want it to be.
Astro~ nice example why wikipedia isn't the best source..
Quoting severstorm:
Keeper, is the snow your getting normal or is it early for this time of year. boy sometimes i miss the snow!
no its about time for us normally first snow is any time after 15 nov for us the temp are below normal by 8 to 10 degrees
Quoting Skyepony:
Astro~ nice example why wikipedia isn't the best source..

That doesn't count, it's a discussion page.
How not to measure temperature, part 74

yes, you read that right...there's 73 other instances at least as egregious. but hey, why call into question data accuracy when you can "adjust" the numbers to whatever you want.
and, don't forget the uber-accurate Russian weather stations used to calculate that blazing October temperature...

Link
Quoting Skyepony:


quoting the recommended reading..

According to the float data on his computer screen, almost the entire Atlantic Ocean had gone cold. Unless you believe The Day After Tomorrow, Willis jokes, impossibly cold.

First, I identified some new Argo floats that were giving bad data; they were too cool compared to other sources of data during the time period.

A month before, Willis had seen a paper by Viktor Gouretski and Peter Koltermann that showed a comparison of XBT data collected over the past few decades to temperatures obtained in the same ocean areas by more accurate techniques, such as bottled water samples collected during research cruises. Compared to more accurate observations, the XBTs were too warm. The problem was more pronounced at some points in time than others.



In the end incorrect readings that were too high & too low were tossed, not an adjustment to make things fit. They were deamed incorrect after being compared to other results from the same time & area.

Thanks, but that doesn't answer my question.
What was wrong with the device?
What was the malfunction?
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 9.8S 82.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving east-southeast at 15 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Squally weather exist within 100 NM from the center extending up to 200 NM in the eastern sector

Near gale-force winds within 30 NM radius from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.9S 84.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 9.4S 87.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
xxxx (Out of AOR)

Additional Information
=======================
The system as a the structure of a small cloud dense overcast. The low level circulation center location has been estimated (without certainity) at the center of this cloud dense overcast. The system evolves within a neutral to favorable environment for intensification during the next 24 hours: sufficient oceanic heat, low level feeding, poor vertical wind shear, but rather weak outflow (neutral upper level divergence, with few cirrus) in high level. It could temporarily reach tropical storm intensity. Beyond, northerly wind shear should not allow the system to maintain its intensity. The system is accelerating east-southeastward NWP are in good agreement. The system should track eastward under the steering influence of the equatorward well established westerlies winds.

The system should cross 90E on Friday.
Quoting Cotillion:


Nope.

Cat 5 starts at 156mph.

(That 1mph makes all the difference.)

Does NHC round the numbers to the nearst 5 mph?!
Evening all

We are going to be doing the live Portlight Q & A at 8:30 EST...Please join us
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Re: Yesterday's blog entry, comments 395-400.
Umm...eww?? O_O


hehehe...I asked you if you were sure!
Personally I think the NHC should get rid of the 155 MPH thing, like they did 130, and 55 MPH. Seeing as 155 is 1 MPH away from Category 5 status.
Bureau of Meteorology - Perth
Tropical Cyclone Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ANIKA
10:00 AM WDT November 20 2008
=============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC Tropical Cyclone Anika - Category Two (991 hPa) located at 13.2S 101.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts up to 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east-southeast at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm-Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.6S 104.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 15.8S 106.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.5S 110.2E - (TROPICAL LOW)
72 HRS: 15.8S 113.0E - (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=======================
The 2220UTC SSMIS microwave image shows deep convection wrapping around the middle level centre. This supports the intensification into a Category 2 cyclone. The system however continues to experience moderate N/NW shear.

Dvorak: CI=DT=3.5 based on 0.8 wrap and time averaged shear pattern. Anika is likely to weaken overnight as moves into cooler SSTs south of 15S. Upper level winds are also forecast to increase due to the influence of an upper level trough to the south.
Err...are you sure that the best track shows 155 mph? Isn't the windspeed measured in knots, left of the pressure and HUR? If so, then that would make Gustav 125/130 kt and Ike 125 kt. Could the 155 be gusts? Take a look at the Wikipedia discussion we're having. Link
theshepard~ Sorry, misunderstood the question. I thought you were asking what proved these devices to be incorrect. Like what there isn't saying that Willis just adjusted data to fit our theory.. The fact they didn't match known corrects like hand drawn samples seemed more conclusive than we stripped it down & such & such sensor was installed someway wrong or was broken. The used XBT's are on the bottom of the ocean. Could check that paper about them.

Alotta people & pearlandaggie is posting great examples..that chick Jennifer, the Watt's guy... they are quick to raise alarm~ filled with opinion & that looks to be..I'm not sure.. flags about every little error. These are different devices some scan the earth, others dive the ocean & every bit in between is being measured. We look at the daily, the monthly but sometime things aren't clear til you look back at the big picture. Hindsight is always 20/20. It's all part of the big experiment. Being the rats in this one, maybe better to learn from our mistakes then to jer at those that screwed up. Permafrost is a meltin, with methane a bubblin up & someone sailed the northwest passage a few months ago..Experiment is on either way.
Looks like the XBT's have had documented discrepencies going back to the late '80s. There is several papers & examples. This was a good one explaning malfuncions from the probes wire touching the hull of the ship to the fall rates being different then expected.

Looking at the advancements in understanding that satalites like GRACE have brought to light..salinity thus bouyency can very so much, I can see how fall rates would be unpredictable.

231 Skyepony
No problem sky.
I guess my years in law enforcement created a discipline I can't shake off.
Evidence is evidence.
Playing the devil's advocate, one could ask for water sample procedures and compare human error probabilities to device error probabilities at the same time entering historical data as current relavance and open another can of worms if this were a crimminal proceeding at the qualification of evidence stage.
The fact that my alarm has not been dispelled does not mean my alarm was vindicated for sure.
Just asking questions.
thanx
230. AstroHurricane001 1:26 AM GMT on November 20, 2008

yes 125 kts 155 knots gusts

it seems to fit with 80 knots the data in the column states 100 knots, for 30 knots it states the gusts is 40 knots,
232 sky
thanx...after reading that I agree completely.
I wouldn't give two cents for that data.
.
OUTLOOK POSTED 11/19/08 @ 9PM EDT:
South Florida StormWatch
some really fascinating reading in here tonight -- just a bit too tired to post (imagine) I'm signing off for the night -- but I have lots to think about -- Skye -- neat infor, Shep --hard questions.... CRS - great post, a few back... got my brain working so hard -- my fingers couldn't type LOL. TAKE CARE ALL!! zzz z z Z Z Z Z Z
Well, looking at the October map of temperature deviations, at least we don't have global warming in south Texas! That should make some people happy.

On a more serious note, that link Skyepony posts (232) is quite interesting. The XBT doesn't sound like a reliable way to measure temperatures, frankly. Throwing out some data does not really surprise me, but I am not sure the studies using any of the data are particularly good one way or another. A melting ice cap, shrinking alpine environments, etc. seem more reliable indicators of what is happening.

LMFAO @ the person who said the only one's that don't beleive in AGW are republicans and oil lovers. Brilliant logic, just brilliant.

Also, quoting realclimate to validate your argument is very weak.

I can go quote climateaudit who won the most recent scientific blog award given out. I'm sure that will ruffle some feathers. Hansen and Schmidt can't even refer to McIntyre by name. Talk about professionalism. You have Hansen who goes and defends wacky eco-terrorists(environMENTALists) over England. He sure doesn't have a bias considering those actions does he?

I suppose since they work for NASA though that we should just act like sheep heading to the slaughter. Nothing has EVER gone wrong at NASA, no, never. :rolleyes:


Dvorak T4.0
Quoting pearlandaggie:
October’s Temperature Discrepencies



That was the dumbest thing I've ever read.

Take the tale of the sap that lives in southern Brazil who thinks the temperature anomaly on the GISS/HadCRU is inaccurate.

He gives the example that his specific location was just slightly below normal in October, therefore it should be represented in the temperature anomaly charts. What this fellow fails to realize is that there's a 1200km smoothing radius applied to those charts. Meaning that even though his city may be slightly below normal, the surrounding 20 cities were above normal. Averaged out over a large area will make for the positive temperature anomaly displayed. Does the publishers of this nonsense fail to realize this? Probably not. It also doesn't bode well for those who post links to this twaddle.
Evening all. Haven't been on for a while - finished up working on Hurricane Ike in Texas, came home, and slept for a week. Hubby and I will take 50th wedding anniversary trip and I hereby respectfully request all of you to send good vibes as we will be cruising transatlantic in Nov/Dec and absolutely want some calm waters and smooth seas. We'll be sailing near the infamous Cape Verde islands, hiking on the Canary Island which is supposed to drop it's shelf and send a giant tsunami against the east coast of U.S. so we're hoping it doesn't drop the shelf anytime soon, and in general enjoying some tropical waters from the latitude we all watch so closely for a good bit of the year. Last time we cruised transatlantic we saw the "green ray." Couldn't believe it ourselves, but weren't the only ones who saw it. It was deep ocean off the coast of Africa and at the moment the sun dropped below the water, there was a flash of emerald green light. Thought it was a myth but it wasn't.
I believe it is high time for the federal government to stop funding scientific research for anything regarding global warming, climate change or whatever it's called today. By the way, it is quite interesting why gobal warming is now called climate change-is that to grease the skids for the possible upcoming hoax about an ice age?
Hello everyone...im sure glad i have drunk a half bottle of wine before logging on....it sortta makes the reading backwards more fun the all the GW talk.....wow
I was involved in this discussion earlier in the day, sort of...

After reading some of the commentary posted here today I must say that there needs to be a serious examination of the whole global warming/climate change issue taken by some of the bloggers here. I highly recommend reading Ricky's blog from post #1 and perhaps some of the blogs from skeptical viewpoints that aren't so blatently denialist, such as the ICECAP site or Anthony Watts. Google search for them. They're out there. I'm sure the names of some of the more prominent skeptics are easily recognizable.

Here's the point.

When 'debating' global warming one really needs to know some facts and figures. That whole "It's a tree-hugger conspiracy" garbage is useless in the discussion. Useless. I will stress it one more time. Useless. That's why bloggers with useless comments wind up on ignore lists. Because that narrow-minded viewpoint has become so infectous you just want to see no more of it. So find out what's really going on first before opening your mouth; or in this case, typing. You want to sound at least a little educated in the subject, even if you want to live with your head in a cloud.

Second, scientists don't, as in DO NOT, fake data to fit assumptive theory presented in models. Believe it or not, scientists are genuine honest folks. People that want to know the answer, even if the answer isn't what they thought it was. Scientists have a quest for knowledge and a competitive drive to find the answers before another scientist does. How does this not make sense? IF a scientist is one in a field of 1,000 scientific experts on climate wouldn't one think that if fake data was presented it wouldn't get figured out? QUICKLY?! Why would someone stake their reputation for such an endeavor.

Errors are usually easy to spot.

Take, for example, the subject of this blog or the NASA GISS October flaw.

This would also fit into the category of useless.

I have really yet to see any real solid skpetic argument pur forth in any of the comments here. Besides, anyone arguing for any one single cause for global warming is automatically wrong when one considers the complexity of climate. Greenhouse gasses don't cover 100% of the warming observed and no one knows whether greenhouse gasses have contributed only 50% or 200%, i.e only realized half of GHG effect due to masking aresols.

What do I think??

IT's a combination of everything. Sun, atmospheric composition, biospheric activity, biome, ocean currents, geologic activity, semi-permanent placement of high/low pressure and the ensuing prevailing wind. There's even theories presented that suggest cosmic rays and cycles of gravitational fields affect climate. I don't know if those types of things have any meaningful effect but any perturbation to the system will show up somewhere (though I doubt temperature). Again. This all goes back to doing some research and passing on the choice to have one's head in the sand.
Sullivan you got to be kidding me......you really believe that this is not possible.....
Second, scientists don't, as in DO NOT, fake data to fit assumptive theory presented in models. Believe it or not, scientists are genuine honest folks. People that want to know the answer, even if the answer isn't what they thought it was. Scientists have a quest for knowledge and a competitive drive to find the answers before another scientist does. How does this not make sense? IF a scientist is one in a field of 1,000 scientific experts on climate wouldn't one think that if fake data was presented it wouldn't get figured out? QUICKLY?! Why would someone stake their reputation for such an endeavor.

And you think we need to get our facts straight.....wow.......
For anyone to think that when Grants and money for research that the Government gives to science could not influence their thinking is very in denial themselves. Sullivan im surprised as intelligent a person you are that you are not a more opened minded person about GW. You seem to except theroy as fact. Any true scientist never assumes theroy as fact. They only except facts to come to a conclusion. It seems many have come to a conclusion without the true facts that no one knows. People do need to get the facts straight. Many as labled as a Republican, seem to make more sense than the crazies on the Left.....wow.
Hmmm...I guess we need to provide a relative situation.

Let's say a chemist claims to have figured out some cheaper, less time consuming way to produce some chemical that will revolutionize the glass cleaning industry. He provides a model with fake data implanted therein to produce the desired result. The product goes to production and blows up the chemical factory because the ingredients are highly unstable. It's glaringly obvious now that his data was wrong.

It's the same with climate science. All the theories have been tested and none fit better than the enhanced greenhouse effect thoery to explain the current warming; and it has, to some degree, been replicated in highly sophisticated computer models. This isn't true for any one singular theory presented in any of the skeptical arguments put forth.

Quoting sullivanweather:
Hmmm...I guess we need to provide a relative situation.

Let's say a chemist claims to have figured out some cheaper, less time consuming way to produce some chemical that will revolutionize the glass cleaning industry. He provides a model with fake data implanted therein to produce the desired result. The product goes to production and blows up the chemical factory because the ingredients are highly unstable. It's glaringly obvious now that his data was wrong.

It's the same with climate science. All the theories have been tested and none fit better than the enhanced greenhouse effect thoery to explain the current warming; and it has, to some degree, been replicated in highly sophisticated computer models. This isn't true for any one singular theory presented in any of the skeptical arguments put forth.



If i used your example then one would assume that all the money that big oil uses to buy the patents in the auto industry development is only in the best of interest. Your reasoning is very inconclusive to many my friend.
Quoting TampaSpin:
For anyone to think that when Grants and money for research that the Government gives to science could not influence their thinking is very in denial themselves. Sullivan im surprised as intelligent a person you are that you are not a more opened minded person about GW. You seem to except theroy as fact.



Did you not read where I posted this?

"What do I think??

IT's a combination of everything. Sun, atmospheric composition, biospheric activity, biome, ocean currents, geologic activity, semi-permanent placement of high/low pressure and the ensuing prevailing wind. There's even theories presented that suggest cosmic rays and cycles of gravitational fields affect climate. I don't know if those types of things have any meaningful effect but any perturbation to the system will show up somewhere (though I doubt temperature)."



Also, regarding grant money. How much grant money would one expect to receive if it was found out that they were a fraud? I doubt it would be very much.

I also happen to think that most reputable scientists would rather have a long distingushed career rather than a tainted short career. I doubt anyone who's gone through 8 years or more of rigorous schooling in their field would do so with the intent to lie and deceive once they graduated.
Don't get me wrong. I do believe that man has created some GW, but the earth has warmed and cooled many times. It will do so again, as Mother Nature has a way of fixing its problems. No one i would hope does not disagree that we should do everything we can do to keep our planet clean and green, but lets not hype GW so much to think that our planet is going to burn up and the polar caps will melt and raise the oceans so much that Florida will be gone.....come on....!
Quoting sullivanweather:



Did you not read where I posted this?

"What do I think??

IT's a combination of everything. Sun, atmospheric composition, biospheric activity, biome, ocean currents, geologic activity, semi-permanent placement of high/low pressure and the ensuing prevailing wind. There's even theories presented that suggest cosmic rays and cycles of gravitational fields affect climate. I don't know if those types of things have any meaningful effect but any perturbation to the system will show up somewhere (though I doubt temperature)."



Also, regarding grant money. How much grant money would one expect to receive if it was found out that they were a fraud? I doubt it would be very much.

I also happen to think that most reputable scientists would rather have a long distingushed career rather than a tainted short career. I doubt anyone who's gone through 8 years or more of rigorous schooling in their field would do so with the intent to lie and deceive once they graduated.


Just like Presidents of this country do not lie......"I did not have sex with that women" Your to funny.
Thank God this country i hope is still in the Middle to the right in conservative thinking than to the middle left as liberal thinking. The younger generation of children are scaring the hell out of me as the influence of the left side media is really grasping our childrens minds.
Enough of this GW talk.....Wow the NOrth just keeps getting one Alberta clipper one right after another with not much end in sight.....look at this loop and you can see how they will continue....

Quoting TampaSpin:
Thank God this country i hope is still in the Middle to the right in conservative thinking than to the middle left as liberal thinking. The younger generation of children are scaring the hell out of me as the influence of the left side media is really grasping our childrens minds.



ha!!!,you need a chill pill,I feel now like the "bush heads" felt in 2000 and 2004...like we have the right man to do the job elected...give the pres-elect atleast a chance for gods sake,be rational!!!!
Tampa,

You prove my point yet again...

Clinton got caught, didn't he? Just like any other scientist would if they were falsifying data. It's simple as that.

When a paper is submitted for publication in a scientific journal it's gone through by a panel of experts for acceptance. Then, if it's even accepted, it'll be gone through by hundreds of your peers just trying to find any little error in there they can lay waste to your work and get the grant you were expected to receive. Science is an incredibly competitve arena filled with thousands of the most brilliant minds to walk the planet. If people lie in their work it will get found out.

Look at what Stephen McIntyre had to do to find a tenth of a degree error in the GISS processing algoritim for US temperatures since 2000. I'm sure it required hundreds of hours of vigorous statistical analysis. Why would someone go through all that work? To find the truth, which is what scientists try to do. They aren't concerned with fantasyland or make believe. We all know who's reserved for that line of duty, although I won't mention it by name here to be non-offensive in my comments.
I'm actually hoping the clipper that gets here next week will provide me with a good bit of snow. That'll be holiday 2 down. White Halloween and a White Thanksgiving. Now if we could get a White Christmas, we'd be 3-for-3, with a couple RBI
Quoting sullivanweather:
Tampa,

You prove my point yet again...

Clinton got caught, didn't he? Just like any other scientist would if they were falsifying data. It's simple as that.

When a paper is submitted for publication in a scientific journal it's gone through by a panel of experts for acceptance. Then, if it's even accepted, it'll be gone through by hundreds of your peers just trying to find any little error in there they can lay waste to your work and get the grant you were expected to receive. Science is an incredibly competitve arena filled with thousands of the most brilliant minds to walk the planet. If people lie in their work it will get found out.

Look at what Stephen McIntyre had to do to find a tenth of a degree error in the GISS processing algoritim for US temperatures since 2000. I'm sure it required hundreds of hours of vigorous statistical analysis. Why would someone go through all that work? To find the truth, which is what scientists try to do. They aren't concerned with fantasyland or make believe. We all know who's reserved for that line of duty, although I won't mention it by name here to be non-offensive in my comments.


Your missng my point.....What has anything that science is finding proving....nothing. No matter what they find, it is only a blink of an eye in the time of mother Earth. Now if the data collected shows something off 1000 years from now, then it might mean something. But, any thing found now means nothing in past time when no data is known.
Quoting sullivanweather:
I'm actually hoping the clipper that gets here next week will provide me with a good bit of snow. That'll be holiday 2 down. White Halloween and a White Thanksgiving. Now if we could get a White Christmas, we'd be 3-for-3, with a couple RBI


Im sure GW caused that too happen.......LMAO....just kidding i could not help it......LOL
Hey Tampa!

Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIVE
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 03 2008-2009
6:00 AM UTC November 20 2008
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (997 hPa) located at 9.7S 84.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 18 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Near gale-force winds
=================
within 45 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in northeastern quadrant

Gale-force winds
=================
up to 75 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.7S 87.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 8.7S 89.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
xxxx (Out of AOR)

Additional Information
=======================
The system is accelerating eastwards. It should cross 90E on Friday. Strongest winds extend in the northeastern quadrant due to the rapid system own speed and reaching probably 35 knots in this area. Upper level west-northwesterly winds are strong but the system's quick eastward movement allows it to keep on involving within rather favorable environment within the next hours and it could reach, very temporarily, tropical storm intensity. Beyond, upper level environmental conditions (mainly intensifying northerly winds) should not allow the system to maintain its intensity. Available NWP models are in good agreement, this forecast is based on a consensus.

Center has been relocated more northern thanks to last available microwave satellite imagery.
obviously, you didn't carefully read the "dumbest" thing ever.....
264. jscs
Quoting TampaSpin:
Thank God this country i hope is still in the Middle to the right in conservative thinking than to the middle left as liberal thinking. The younger generation of children are scaring the hell out of me as the influence of the left side media is really grasping our childrens minds.


I am in Australia right now where GW is not a debate. It's big deal, and the rest of the world is figuring it out before the problems are insurmountable.
morning
an area of convection to the northwest of Panama looks to be increasing in size. there is some cyclonic turnig in the area which is the southern end of a stalled cold front. pressures in the area are 1010mb and wind shear is in the 15-20 knots range. this is the area where the CMC and the UKMET have been hinting of some form of cyclogenesis. any development there will be slow to occur and will be short lived as shear in the caribbean and the atlantic will be too high for any system to survive. this to me is only an area of interest
cold here in fl
Morning everybody.

Interesting to see the GW debate "heating up" again. . . . lol

I do want to say that the US is about the only country of any size (aside from maybe China?) where there's still a debate as to whether there actually is GW going on. . . . most of the rest of the world that's discussing it has moved on to causes, potential effects, and what adjustments need to be made to cope.
Potential nor'easter next week. All the city folks heading north into the mountains for the holiday, be prepared! Having a good set of snow tires would be a good start.
Quoting futuremet:
cold here in fl
Here too. I'm actually thinking about wearing a cap this morning. I may actually need my winter clothes this weekend.
Nassau, BS (Airport)
Updated: 2 sec ago
68 °F / 20 °C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 60%
Dew Point: 54 °F / 12 °C
Pressure: 30.09 in / 1019 hPa (Steady)

Pretty cool evening / early morning. (as a point of reference, a day with a 68 degree high is like, DEPTH of winter here . . . .lol)

I'm gone for the day. If I get a chance, I'll check in this afternoon. However, since the tropics seems so quiet (at last!) I may only skim and not post. Have a great one, everybody!

Morning Folks.

25 here in NJ calm winds some snow showers.

Glad to hear sulli talking about possible 2 for 2 =) would love a good snow. These showers just aint cutting it for me.
Good morning, Bone!

It's certainly looking like someone is going to get clocked!
Good Morning!!! 45 degrees in SWFL & and they call this the tropics???? Somehow I just want to mainline my coffee - mea culpa - I turned the heat on for just an hour -- can't walk around with the cat wrapped around my neck as a body warmer.

It has been interesting to see how some of us humans thrive on the chilly weather, suffer the heat and then there are others who are suffering and groaning w/these cold temps & thrive in the heat. The beauty of Diversity
yea sulli I was just looking at the models looks like tuesday is the day. From what I noticed appears to be an Alberta Clipper that generates a secondary Low off Delmarva and tracks Northward. We stay on the cold side and QPF readings are decent for a few inches. Hopefully we have the two-fer =)
Morning surfmom. Hope your keeping warm. Yea it is amazing how certain folks need the cold just as others need the warmth.

Amazing to hear how cold it is getting in SRQ even before Thanksgiving, usually here about those temps in January or at least late December.
Two down, one BIG one to go, Christmas...

I'm hoping for the big three in the year, Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas to be white. A good ol' fashioned arctic holiday season...lol
Morning vocab word pls - What is a "clipper?"
hard for the young people to be conservative when there jobs have been sent over seas. personally i think the businessman that made these decisions to move the jobs did not think it through carefully. the price of american workers now is lowering and home sweet home is way nicer than where these jobs have gone all america needs now is to find something we are good at doing.
Good Morning..Bone..Sulli and Mom
36F with clear skies and no wind here in "The Old North State"
It's a fast moving northern stream disturbance that we typically see during the winter.

Also called Saskatchewan screamers, they usually deliver a solid 2-6" snowfall to the north of the surface low track. Sometimes they slow down upon reaching the coast, forming Miller type-B nor'easters.
Good morning!

It's 19°F here and snowing lightly in the Great White North...lol
morning MissNadia


surfmom a cliper is usually a Low pressure system moving out of Alberta Canada and "clipping" the Northern States. Sometimes they drop low enough into the US to cause a secondary low to form off the coast and cause a Nor'Easter.

For the MidAtlantic north twords New England Alberta Clippers usually cause a nice snowfall but if they drop low enough they can cause a headache for the I-95 corridor.





Have been trying to get this photo to download since 0630 hrs, worked fine when my geek Son-In-Law showed me how to do it yesterday, must have forgotten one of the steps! LOL
Morning all

Portlight presentation at 9:15 EST. Hope y'all will join in.
Thanks Guys, I got my "factoid" for the day -- appreciate the visual Bonedog - best way for me to "get it"
Going through the coffee like water this morning --- Love my "jackmeup" juice first thing in the AM....seems especially good with Chilly weather outside.....
33F
88%
winds calm
ears cold
no problem surfmom. I know the visuals help :)

It is a term us northerners are used to hearing. I swear the news guys say it every other day LOL

25 °F
Overcast
Windchill: 25 °F
Humidity: 82%
Dew Point: 19 °F
Wind: Calm

snow shower has stoped just cloudy now.
... Record low temperature tied at Kennedy NY...

A record low temperature of 27 degrees was tied at Kennedy NY at 659
am (lst) today. This ties the old record of 27 set in 1997.
mornin all
Hey dog, I've got a super video of a marlin tangled up in the Atwood submersible. Can't figure out how to post it from my desktop though.
Quoting theshepherd:
mornin all
Hey dog, I've got a super video of a marlin tangled up in the Atwood submersible. Can't figure out how to post it from my desktop though.

What is an Atwood Submersible? ...have never seen one...thanks.
Morning All - A beautiful 40 degrees here in Melbourne when I left for work. Hope we have a peaceful day on the blog - work calls today so will be lurking most of the day!
When I was growing up was too clueless about weather to ever hear the word -- last year I didn't really check in here that much in the fall/winter -- now with the new surfboard, I can get more coldfront waves... & I'm even more curious about the "workings of weather" not just 'canes --plus well, guess I enjoy the company.....
morning conchy.

sounds awsome shep. I dont know how to post video either so Im no help LOL.

Morning Conchy!!! -- Tried to get out and run b/4 the house woke this AM -- but the cold was too much ... gotta warm up the muscle groups first -- going in just a bit and I'm running against traffic LOL
Quoting surfmom:
Morning Conchy!!! -- Tried to get out and run b/4 the house woke this AM -- but the cold was too much ... gotta warm up the muscle groups first -- going in just a bit and I'm running against traffic LOL
Morning Bone and Surfmom - agree too cold to run early - I'll go after work, but at 6 pm starting to cool again but I so prefer it to the heat and definitely against traffic.
292
It's a big star wars looking thingy they use to explore the ocean depths.
sounds good surfmom. we have alot of good winter weather bloggers here and on their respective blogs.

I feel winter storms are a little easier to forecast and track then tropical ones BUT figuring out when and where is alot more tricky. Gets real sciencey when it comes to forecasting snow/rain lines and related profiles.
Macon Ga hit 30*F this morning at 0200, back up to 36 now, rec low was 19 in 1914, and rec high was 81 in 1991, bet that was an odd Nov.
Quoting theshepherd:
292
It's a big star wars looking thingy they use to explore the ocean depths.

Thanks...all the submersibles I have seen just look small subs! Thanks again
Hi, just a lowly lurker here, with some comment on GW....

I have no problem with someone saying that GW is occuring. I have a BIG problem with the CONCLUSION that it's bad and needs to be fixed. Google "little climate optimum" with the quotation marks. Read the boring scientific studies and come to your own conclusions.

A few years ago, a team of scientists from Boston made a $10,000 bet with a team of scientists in Russia. The Russians believe GW is due to sun spot activity, which should begin to decrease around the year 2016. The Boston team of course believes GW is due to greenhouse gases.

It's one thing to state a fact, it's another to present a conclusion as fact. It's like saying that hurricanes are "bad." Yeah, they are bad if you live in a glass house on the shoreline of a hurricane prone area. But from the point of view of the Earth, it may actualy be "good."

I read an article (sorry, can't remember cite) that said the NASA error was caused by reporting the temps from Aug. as being the temps for Sept. and Oct.
302
Dr Masters confirmed Russian data was legit. Good enough for me.
Skyepony sold me on the tossing out of the XBT too warm data.
Now my only question is the tossing out of the Argo Float too cool data.
shep do you have a link to a pic of the submersable. I googled it and all I got were a bunch of oil rigs
No dog, I don't. Came to me on windows media.
WU mail me your email add and I'll try to edit it to shorten it a bit and send you the capture and rescue scenes.
theshepherd you've got mail
Hey dog.
Can't edit as well as I find fish.
Google the phrase, marlin attwood eagle.
just looked NWS showing a classic Miller B system for next tuesday. Might be just what the doctor ordered :)

thanks shep. it was tangled int he ROV for the rig!!



side view schematic

top view schematic
Quoting theshepherd:

Thanks, but that doesn't answer my question.
What was wrong with the device?
What was the malfunction?


You'll find links to technical references at the link below.
(Source)The news this week though is that all of that 'cooling' was actually due to combination of a faulty pressure reading on a subset of the floats and a switch between differently-biased observing systems (Update: slight change in wording to better reflect the paper). The pressure error meant that the temperatures were being associated with a point higher in the ocean column than they should have been, and this (given that the ocean cools with depth) introduced a spurious cooling trend when compared to earlier data.
!!!!!!!!!! NEW BLOG !!!!!!!!!!!
310 stream
Mucho thanky, amigo
That nails it for me.
I guess you just can't beat the old fashion methods of sticking a thermometer in a bottle.
Panstackingly slow, but reliable.
Quoting theshepherd:
310 stream
Mucho thanky, amigo
That nails it for me.
I guess you just can't beat the old fashion methods of sticking a thermometer in a bottle.
Panstackingly slow, but reliable.


One of the issues with all of these modern sampling techniques is that the data are available in real-time and the default is to put this data up in real-time. I think it would be better if they let the data age for a few months and during that interval errors would be caught before they are put up on the web. On the other hand this is only an issue because some folks think the provisional real-time data is the last word. It's not and error catching and fixing is a normal part of science. It doesn't mean the science is suspect, it means that it is progressing as it should.
presslord to speak on disaster response and people with disabilities in 5 to 10 minutes...
315. gelf
Dr. Jeff,
Hate the multiple choice poles (as the one I'm seeing on the current page).
They are ridiculous.
ie.
"A 1959 Texas law states that the goverment may seize any home that is built between the low and high tide marks. Now that Hurricane Ike has eroded away huge amounts of beach, many people who built their homes close to the coast are in violation of the law. Do you believe these people should have their homes seized and be forced to live elsewhere?" Yes. No. Notsure.

I lived on the Gulf coast for 9 years. Yes the state may seize private property due to coastline proximity. They will do so based on a significant percentage of personal property storm dammage incurred. They should. The property becomes virtully useless. After all, you could rebuild the storm dammaged property but who would be stupid enough to protect the investment?
Homes constructed in unprotected coastline areas are built on "stilts". If the coastline erodes and you have to take a row to get to where your car is parked, the state could care less.
There are commercial properties in Galveston built on piers.

Popular opinion (and everybody has one...)poles generaly lack enough information to formulate logical conclusions.
They seem to be used most often as a propaganda tool.
edit, That is, To train us to make snap judgements based on emotion rather than to take the the difficult path of seeking truth.

PS: In hurricane seasons between 1973 and 1982 I heard Houston local news reporters state many times "New Orleans dodged another bullet...". What does that tell you concerning Katrina?

Why is the general public so willing to be mis-lead?
Quoting theshepherd:
mornin all
Hey dog, I've got a super video of a marlin tangled up in the Atwood submersible. Can't figure out how to post it from my desktop though.



The following video shows the whole incident...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bn22jvxfHOE

Added: November 12, 2008
Marlin stuck in off shore oil rig
A marlin gets stuck in the blow out prevention stack of a subsea oil rig.
The guy operation the ROV manages to get him out though