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Typhoon Xangsane bears down on Vietnam

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:35 PM GMT on September 30, 2006

Vietnam has ordered mass evacuations of 200,000 coastal residents in the path of Typhoon Xangsane, now a very dangerous Category 3 typhoon over the South China Sea. This is the largest evacuation in Vietnam for a typhoon in 30 years. Xangsane is expected to hit Vietnam on Sunday morning as a major typhoon. Authorities are most concerned for the welfare of about 4,000 fisherman still at sea in the path of the typhoon; in May, 234 Vietnamese fishermen were killed or unaccounted for after Supertyphoon Chanchu passed east of Vietnam on its way to a landfall in China. Da Nang on the central coast of Vietnam has had its winds rise to 29 mph with higher gusts today, and may receive a direct hit from Xangsane.

The Philippine Islands continue to clean up from Xangsane today, and the death toll stands at 94 with at least another 60 people missing. Over 15,000 homes were damaged or destroyed, and power is still out to 20% of the island of Luzon's 43 million people. The death toll from the storm was not as high as many other typhoons to strike the country in recent years, since Xangsane moved though fairly quickly--15 mph--and didn't have time to dump as much rain as usual for a typhoon. Peak rain amounts (Figure 1) were about 10 inches, and rainfall amounts closer to 15 inches are required to trigger the kinds of major flash flooding and mud slides that often kill so many in the Philippines.


Figure 1. Rainfall from Typhoon Xangsane over the Philippines as measured by NASA's TRMM satellite. 250mm is about 10 inches. Image credit: NASA TRMM Project.

Hurricane Isaac
Hurricane Isaac became the season's fifth hurricane this morning, thanks to some lighter wind shear, warmer waters, and moister air. Isaac has another day or two of favorable conditions before cooler waters and high wind shear weaken the hurricane. Isaac is expected to pass near southeast Newfoundland on Monday as a tropical storm with 55 mph winds.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form in the mid-Atlantic south of the Azores Islands by Wednesday, and this system may make the transition to a tropical storm as it drifts south over the open Atlantic late in the week. There are no other threat areas to discuss--the tropical wave (97L) that we were tracking yesterday, north of Puerto Rico, has fallen apart.

I'll have an update Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Jeff
thanks Dr
cmc showing battle between the trades & Conus High...this could be the easterly fetch..Link
Scince it might develop into a non-tropical low, and it will head south into the open atlantic, will it become tropical?
kman...you make it sound tooooooo good.

Really cold Reds are good. Been several places in the Carib, but not Cayman...needs to be the next trip...gonna start looking and planning...interest is peaked.

NC bunny, wanna go? lol
I can't believe I'm the first one to comment on Jeff's blog!
TOUHDOWN LSU ..im out to watch the game..later


Big bubble of trouble!!
Thanks for the update Dr Masters.
Posted By: tropicfreak at 4:42 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.

I can't believe I'm the first one to comment on Jeff's blog!


Wow! What an achomplishment!
The comment I posted about 3 minutes ago I meant the non-tropical low system.
Thanks ron
lol, I thought it was "Big bubble of NO trouble", WPB.

Thats what they said on News Channel 5 anyway.
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 12:39 PM EDT on September 30, 2006.
NEW BLOG
Yeah I was the first to look at his blog because it said, LAST UPDATED 1 MINUTE AGO.
lol, I thought it was "Big bubble of NO trouble", WPB.

Thats what they said on News Channel 5 anyway.


I know, I had to change it to trouble because of the Bermuda High Ridging...
MichaelSTL, the book doesnt say that actually happened...
LOL just kiding
LOL Michael

355 MPH winds
821 MB
HYPERCANE Isaac
lasted thru December
Can anybody awnswer my question I posted 10 minutes ago!!!!?
Bermuda High Ridging..

Although the Cape Verde season is ending.
moonlightcowboy

check out the link on pirates week
Link
Dr. Masters,

Where's the October Outlook you mentioned yesterday?

-Dr. Bob
He's going to mention it on Monday Dr.Bob
well I have to run a few errands now

bb later
just a novice.....
i've been listening for sometime now...
any chance of something forming at the tail of the cold front just north of Cuba?
Any chance this becomes the next invest?

11:15am

12:15am
Good Afternoon,

Iam currenty watching an area of thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the bahamas at the tail end of the cold-front that came threw south-florida yesterday.If thunderstorm activity can persists things may get interesting as a ridge is set to build in the next couple of days.

Here is a close-up visible pic of the area.



CLICK HERE FOR LOOP OF IMAGE
hurricane23....
that's the same thing i was looking at.
34. 0741
some model want to form weak low in bahamas in next few week that why it going get windy here because of high to north and low in bahamas
NO Hypercanes have a minimum central pressure of around 700mb and winds over 500mph. The eye is a small 15 mi wide and surges reach over 60 feet. 112 degree water temps are needed and can go either faster or slower depending on the size of pool of extreme heat.
I was watching that too, 23.
MY MOM JUST ASKED HOW OFTEN DO HYPERCANES COME, LOL!!!!

Was talking to her on the phone, telling her ya'lls jokes.
NWAtlanticCyclone, look at this:



130 m/s = 290 mph... (for reference, 70 m/s is 156 mph, Cat 5).

Also, SSTs can be as low as 35*C (95*F)... and such water temperatures already exist...
Whatever happened to JP, or 456?
Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 5:32 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.

MY MOM JUST ASKED HOW OFTEN DO HYPERCANES COME, LOL!!!!

Was talking to her on the phone, telling her ya'alls jokes.


LOL, God bless her. Reminds me of my grandma.
LOL NWAtlantic,

It was a joke. Hypercanes are alive only in theory, but it would take a matero stirike or underwater volcano to maybe cause one. Also, 15 mi wide eyes arent that small. From what I rememeber from the show on the proposed hypercanes it would be more like a 1 mile wide eye with 500 mph winds about 10 miles out.
Hypercanes actually are no more than a theory at this time. In order to have proof that they are even possible, a "hypercane" would have to actually be observed (something I hope never happens). Without observation, it is not scientific fact.
To create such a monster, parts of the ocean would have to warm up to at least 100 degrees. Only the impact of a large asteroid hitting the tropical ocean or a massive undersea volcano could generate such intense heating. It might have happened at least once in our past, though. Emanuel and his colleagues theorize that asteroid-triggered hypercanes may have contributed to massive global extinctions millions of years ago.

In our present climate, the worst possible hurricane would have winds of 200 mph. Thankfully most cyclones don't live up to that potential, although Hurricane Andrew came close. By the time it hit Florida in August 1992, it had sustained winds of 145 mph. When at sea, Andrew barely made it to hurricane status, which is defined by a wind speed of 74 mph or greater. Within a day or two, its intensity had shot up. It surprised everyone.
here we golink
I read some of an article in google, when I searched for hypercanes. One area showed up for hypercanes and the great Genesis flood. What was really disturbing was if a magma chamber cracked open it could release hot gases and hot magma, that could make the temperatures jump to 45C or 112F. Now this is what they used for a bases on a model the MM5 on Hurricane Florence in 1988. Now when he came over that hot water in the Gulf the storm made the jump from a category one hurricane right to a matured hypercane to where the model could not handle the results with accuracy as the surround atmospheric variables became increased and harder for the models to handle. Now once this mature hypercane developed it was hard for it to wind down and Dr. William Gray said that it would not weaken unless the surrounding waters were not dropping off rapidly. The long living hurricane would be a monster and well surpass Supertyphoon Tip in overall size. Now this hypercane could develop an eyewall as high as 20 miles or 105,601 feet. And it also contained winds going 200m/s.
The graph that I posted also explains how storms like Epsilon and Gordon intensified over water that was "too cold"... colder than normal upper atmospheric temperatures (the scale on the left).
Stormchaser, "here we go" where?
But you guys, what I just posted, the theory of an asteroid or undersea volcano could very well explain a hypercane, magam vents could become exposed by an earthquake and then our mid ocean ridges would cause the ocean to warm up dramtically. You would be surprised on how it could happen tomorrow. We just don't know.
Ok, back at home now. Quiet tropics, save for Isaac.
23, Ron any thoughts on the long-range GFS?
looks like activity picking up the end of next week and the second week of October
addict, will you post a link, please?
I am not saying it isn't a possibility. I am simply stating that without an actual observation, it is only a theory. I personally don't know whether or not they are possible (though I prefer to think that they're not).
I have posted an image in the past blog about that. Definetly showing that.

typhoon tip an tracy is the litle onelink
Hey MichaelSTL if 130m/s=290mph what would 200m/s be?
I'd post a link if I knew how -
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
that's all I have sorry can anyone else post a link for swla?
Sure is showing that.

I posted this picture earlier with the same thing in mind:

I shudder at what could happen if forecasts of global temperatures rising by 5 degrees C are correct...

DOHA With Qatar's open sea water temperature touching a high 37 degree Celsius, its coastal lines have turned into a graveyard of fish and invertebrates. Fish and endangered sea turtles are washing up on the sea-shores of Al Khor, Messaed, Al Messeilah, Um Alhoul, Al Wakhra, Ras Abu Fontas, Doha, Al Marunah and Al Jassayiah in large numbers during the last three days.

Average MPI = 225 mph (based on graph I posted earlier and using the middle range).

O_O

Oh, and don't forget this... it only has the 10 minute sustained winds - 185 mph(!!!), but Typhoon Tip had 10 minute winds of only 160 mph... pretty pathetic for such an intense storm (of course, 160 mph, 10 min is 190 mph, 1 min)...
Ya'll notice 92L on a floater...97L is gone from Navy. That wave (97L) & the interaction of that front stalled in the Bahamas may be interesting.. Cmc has been hinting something in the area for days, been fickles as far as direction. The last run probibly the most & ever weaking, less tropical looking, more frontal. Gfs jumped on board with disipating a tiny storm in S FL, lastnight. Today's 12Zgfs is simialiar just very weak & more south.
All you have to do to post a link, is hit the link button, and copy the site URL in the box that pops up.
Ron that's only a week away!
We've been watching systems from Cape
Verde that were at least 2 weeks away
where's all this activity coming from?
Converting m/s to mph:

Multiply m/s by 3,600 (seconds in an hour) and then divide by 1,609 (meters in one mile).
oops sorry your map shows 10/12 that's almost
2 weeks away nothing to get excited about
If i did it correctly 200 m/s would be 450 MPH or 447.4829 MPH to be exact.


Issac now hurricane Issac.
I belive the people who said 96L wasnet gonna be anything are now dead wrong
hes the 5th hurricane of the season.
Posted By: stormaddict at 5:57 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.

Ron that's only a week away!
We've been watching systems from Cape
Verde that were at least 2 weeks away
where's all this activity coming from?


lol, ask the GFS model that. I'm clueless.
Ok, I am a little high on pain meds, so bear with me. Do we have 92L??
Interesting:

190 mph (Typhoon Tip's 1 minute sustained winds) / 160 mph (Typhoon Tip's 10 minute sustained winds) = 1.1875

1.1875 x 185 mph (Monica's 10 minute sustained winds) = 220 mph (Monica's 1 minute sustained winds)???
hi Nash

92L on the floater is the same system as 97L on the Navy site
I belive the people who said 96L wasnet gonna be anything are now dead wrong

I already said sorry, at the time it had no hope, it finally got its act together and proved me wrong, once again impresive 96L for proving me wrong.
Ok, thanks Kman!
WPBHurricane that is right almost 450mph. But that's still 50mph short of the definition of Dr. Kerry Emanuel's theory of containing 500mph. He said that the area of highest winds would be 15 miles or so from the eye. But the windfield would quadrouple it's size. In this rate of intensification over 45C waters.
96L showed that once again it is extremely difficult to forecast intensity.

Thank goodness we can at least have some accuracy on track:-)
Link
This link shows the closest places where the magma could be released. The mid - Atlantic Oceanic ridge. Its located east of Bermuda in an north to south orientation from 87N to something south in the south Atlantic.
05: yes that's very interesting
look at the 1949 no named storm that hit
Texas in October. It org. in Pac
would give you the link if I knew how :-)
The link works. Wow I just can't believe its possible. A 450mph hurricane which could possibly be double the size of Supertyphoon Tip. Unbelieveable the unforeseen mysteries of what could possibly have made the dinosuars extinct.
stormaddict - here's one that shows it

Link
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 26N74W 20N80W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 72W-80W.

Like Skye said....this area is something to be aware of.
NWAtlanticCyclone, here is where I got that graphic, showing 290 mph winds as the lower limit for hypercanes.

Note this (if necessary, scroll down about 2/3 of the way):

Two MPI models currently exist, which provide similar answers for given environmental conditions. These are summarized in Emanuel (1991) and Holland (1997). These models can be used to place a physical bound on the maximum intensity of a tropical cyclone at a specific landfall location. Emanuel (1991) provides graphical application that requires only an estimate of the climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and the temperature of the upper atmosphere to estimate the MPI (Figure 3.10.1). Holland's approach requires a profile of temperatures throughout the atmosphere, but then can be applied via a spread-sheet program.

The graph you see is also the basis for the maps here.
I can't even fathom a 450mph storm. Not at all. It would be like several atomic bombs detonating. Everything in its path would be reduced to dust.
here's another

Link
THANK YOU DH! still trying to figure
all the techology stuff
Link
This link shows the physical map of the mid - Atlantic ridge, that is about 500 to 700miles west of the African coastline.
you're welcome!
hi if something did form out of the blob by the bahamas where will it head thanks
Guys here is an IR loop of the Bahamas...Lets see if thunderstorm activity persists.


That front off the Florida coast is breaking up. One of the local Mets mentioned some of that might back-up into S FL over the weekend. Have to see.
Hey Rand, 23. How are you guys today?
Hey Nash...good to see ya again...all fine here.
Good to hear that Rand. I have been somewhat absent from here for about a week, but will be here more frequently now. I wonder if the stalled front will spin anything up?
Yes Michael a 290mph hurricane is the lower limit while a 450mph hypercane would be the upper limit or possibly higher which is pretty scary. And if the hypercane were to weaken some after passing over that 45C waters wouldn't the highest winds increase in coverage.
I read an article not long ago discussing the frightening aspects of several of the hurricanes last year. The wind speeds and wave heights were estimated for the most part, since the violence of the storm destroyed all measuring instruments it encountered. It talked about 150-200 ft wave heights and 300 mph gusts on the open ocean.
Wow a 150 to 200 foot wave. I couldn't imagine what 450mph sustained winds would do for a storm surge and the wave height, wow that is incredible.
That would be devistation beyond human comprehension.
I can't remember who it was that was posting those funny drawings of hurricane tracks the other day. Whoever it was, check this out Link

This is the real pic of what the hurricane season was in the year I was born. It looks a LOT like those loopty-loops you were drawing the other day. Ironically, one of the storms bears my name! I just called my Mom to ask if the storm that formed a couple of months had anything to do with my name and she said no, but it probably should have since I turned out to be sort of a hurricane myself!
Hard to say right now Nash....I've had computer problems and am working off my spare. Could do something...or not be anything. It just appears that some of that convection is going to get cut-off maybe around the FL Straits to me.
I see Rand. These are the hardest to predict storm formation because you don't have the typical wave to work with. You're dealing with the tail end of a front and that is difficult to say if anything will break off, form an LLC and generate rotation.
101. KRL
One of the most significant threats to the world climate system will be the next polar reversal.

As the earth's magnetic field continues to flex and weaken, like it is presently, vast amounts of solar radiation previously reflected will be able to impact the atmosphere, land, polar ice, and oceans.

Do some research on the subject and its quite a frightening event.

It is a proven scientific fact that pole reversals do occur, however there is disagreement over whether this occurs gradually over hundreds of years or much more rapidly in a cataclysmic short event.

Another area of discussion is whether the electromagnetic flip will also flip the rotational direction of the earth and wether the earth's rotation actually comes to a stop for a long time during the transition.

Anyway you look at it, there will be dramatic climate changes never before experienced by modern civilization.

NHC mentioned some low pressure there on Thursday Nash but I've been out of the loop since yesterday.
This is the situation where....boom...Invest happens!
Or it could do nothing.
looks like we've got a couple areas in the Caribbean to keep an eye on..

Isaac is up to 70knots and 989 mb on Navy Site
Isaac is now 70kts (80 MPH) and 989 MB according to the Navy



I think Isaac could become a cat. 2.
1. Good catch 667.

2. 70knts (80 MPH), or 80.5 MPH exactly.
thanks way to catch it too
96L (Isaac) has really been trouble for my intensification forecast.

I say it could have winds at peak at 105 MPH, and when it hits Newfoundland winds could be around 65-85 MPH.
That area in the southern Caribbean near Panama is now 1008mb up from lastnight's 1006mb.

97L is on the navy site again, hadn't got any new passes in the last 6 hours.
yeah i agree, the area is barely anything worth mentioning, but it is still slightly something
Posted By: Skyepony at 7:00 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.
That area in the southern Caribbean near Panama is now 1008mb up from lastnight's 1006mb.

where are you getting pressure readings from? Im not finding any buoys in that area..
the wave in the SE Caribbean is under 20 knots of shear now and there is little chance of it developing any time soon
Link
the question is where it heads, its got plenty of time
Panama City, Panama

pressure equivalent in mb apprx 1010
Link
I guess if the NHC is going to keep up 92L satellite view, the Navy is going to counter with 97L. Neither (or since they are the same system) appear to be much to be concerned about.
you think anything might be brewing in SW Caribbean?

I would hate for a storm to actually follow this track , with 140 MPH + winds.
story

pressures tend to be low around Panama all summer due to the monsoon trough from the E Pacific.
I would need to see something much lower than that before considering it noteworthy.
Nope
what about the area above Trinidad in the SE Caribbean after it escapes the shear?
as for the SE Carib. wave that area is very hostile with high trade winds. Ever been to Aruba ?. A calm day is 25 mph and the trees grow horizontal !

When the wave gets below Haiti it will bear watching if convection persists.
Theres alot of shear over the Caribbean and definitely the Gulf of Mexico. Will It let up any time soon?
the Caribbean and Gulf have been shootin these suckers down this season
I played golf in Aruba once and had to wash my glasses every 10 minutes to get the salt off from the sea breeze.
Winds are fierce there all year round and the wave is in that general area.
300mph winds are NOT impossible, as they happened in the Oklahoma City tornado. Just like hurrican watchers have wondered whether a Cat 6 cane step will someday be warranted the tornado watchers talk about F6 tornados.

Obviously a tornado is a much smaller phenomenon than a hurricane, but if a mesocyclone can wrap 300mph winds in a 1-mile space I can't see why a hurrican couldn't manage a 300mph eyewall.

Obviously the heat engine is the key -- whether cloud tops can stay cold enough and waters warm enough to fuel such a monster.
Zap
can anything form from the blob in the bahamas today ?
I agree Zap. If a tornado can't thy why can't a hurricane's eye wall. If temperatures are warm enough and there's more instablity in the upper atmosphere then cloud tops could continue to cool and expand more to the top of the atmosphere.
anyway I have to run out now but will check in later
have a great afternoon everyone
Oops I meant if a tornado can.
I have seen footage of where F5 tornadoes have scoured away asphalt roads, leaving 100yard gaps of bare earth. I can't imagine what an hour-long onslaught of 300mph winds plus water would do to a city......
Zap
Story, I've been getting the pressures from the surface map.

Here is the legend for the map.
ty Sky
tropical models overviewLink
Did they put 97L back up on the Navy site???
forecast winds of IssacLink
THE limiting factor for Hurricane Intensity...AtlanticLink
where is 97l i dont see it
the bahammas blob is blowing up now . where will it start to go ?
97L dissapated...
another model linkie..Link
That's what I thought. I don't know why anyone would post that 97L was back on the Navy site. Unless the Navy did it by mistake. I think that happened earlier in the season on their site as well.
COLA link..Link
97L is on the Navy site for me

wishcasterboy...in 24-36 hours the Bahamas area wind shear is supposed to flip flop, from unfavrable for development to favorable.
97LINVEST.20kts-1013mb-192N-637W
Well now its gone...
97L is not on my Navy link..WPB..look at the time stamp on that photo?
It's gone.
LOL Rand!!!! Yeah, it's like a nictotine fit when we have nothing to talk about! Don't worry, the season isn't over yet. We may not have a landfalling hurricane this year (let's hope), but I'll bet we will have several invests to debate over before 11/30 rolls around.

Gotta go water the flower bed. Yeah, definately nothing going on in the tropics when I am watering flowers:-)
N hemisphere now gridsLink
I hear that Nash...my tomato plants need some water too. Boring....zzzzzz....
Weird they posted it than deposted it, even though there was nothink there.

Isaac winds are now at 80 MPH Pressure at 989MB

SLOSH animation of Hugo making landfallLink
NOAA map of Rita with Thumbnails..Link
Intensity skill of Models..in 05Link
Enjoying the links, fellows. Patrap looks like N0GAPS faired best for intensity in 05...what about path?
Talk about giving us South Floridians another scare

...ZETA AND THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
FINALLY COME TO AN END...
here it is I think moonlightcowboy..Link
WE aint Skeered...LOL
Track guidance performance for KatrinaLink
Model performance for Wilma..note the trof kicking the lateLink season storm...easier to forecast
note the trof kicking the lateLink season storm...easier to forecast

Yup, the local weatherguys told people it will be moving so fast that it wont weakin that much, some people didnt listen and the storm caught them off guard.
Zetas guidance was out to lunchLink
WPB..some people , if they dont wanna know..u cant tell um...
Zetas guidance...Link
The people who didnt listen thought, hey if its moving so fast, it wont have enough time to stregnthen, Wilma hit the west coast as a cat. 3 with 125 MPH winds.
WPB i live in miami should i be worried about this bahamas blob?
WPB i live in miami should i be worried about this bahamas blob?

Just monitor it for now
Does this "Blob" off of Florida have a spin?
Bahamas...yeah, I'm watching.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


anything that might form in the Bahamas ..would ride NEast up the trof & away from Fla....
I am sorry for u guys on dial up
Deep south Caribbean is looking interesting.
way too much shear now anyway...Link
Heres the visibleLink
Hey Teddy, hey Pat.
Here is a different view at a close-up visible of the Bahamas...



Click here for visible loop of image
Dvorak infrared loop..shows the low level flow and the steering above much better...Link
If anyone is on dial-up...those loops are making it very difficult for them gang.
Cybr...see if you would consider removing that loop.
all these images have crushed the bandwidth
Oh crud so sorry i will remove them right away!
Awesome graphics Cyberteddy..thanks.
Thanks Cybr.
They were cool Cyber, but thanks for removing them!
Maybe another 10mph increase in winds for Isaac then steady weaken is forcasted.

(Part of NHC 5pm Discussion on Hurricane Isaac.)

CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN THE EYEWALL OF ISSAC THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED
WITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTHWEST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB/AFWA ARE INCREASING...
AND THE LOCAL 3 HOUR OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR T4.2... EQUATING
TO 70 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 70 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE ESTIMATES. ISAAC STILL HAS A
LITTLE MORE TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE HURRICANE. STEADY WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE TOMORROW AS THE SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AND
WATERS COOL BELOW 26C.
there all gone sorry guys didnt mean for it to freeze up your computers.
I was getting dizzy from all the spins and moves.
Am i frogiven?
Cyberteddy..the 8:41 radar post of Katrina shows the absorption of dry air and a much demised eyewall even before landfall. Also, the right front quadrant missed New Orleans altogether. With tropical systems increasing in intensity and number there is a much worse scenario which may await New Orleans. There is the possibility that much of Pontchartrain could be dumped into the city if a storm were to hit at a certain angle.
Posted By: CybrTeddy at 8:59 PM GMT on September 30, 2006.

Am i frogiven?



No, but you are forgiven.
Hmm
when do the trolls come on?
No prob, Cyber. You just learned something new and that's always a good thing!
When it gets dark.
ok
Remember that the bahamahas was where Katrina formed
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Pontchartrain

Like a big bathtub waiting to be overturned.
Sorry Patrap..didn't realize you were around. Won't discuss depressing scenarios anymore.
You go, Patrap- git 'em all!
Got to come a big fed project to shore up New Orleans. Some fed people got to get their heads out, return home and help the forty-eight. We all the fed. Else what's it about?
It ain't about Iraq. Finished.
http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html
Hurricane strike graph...Link
..Dosent bother me..my eyes seen enough for 6 lifetimes..its all good...
Nimbus-3 pic of Camille..note small compact Cat-5..and small eye diameter..Link
Roll Tide @ UF
10 Al. 7 Fl.

Have to go for UF on this one.
13 UF!!!
Under Review??

That was a TD (touchdown not tropical depression).

PLAY STANDS!!

Back to the weather!!
Too much shear for any kind of development over the bahamas right now... Actually... There's too much shear just about everywhere...

Season over?
Afternoon everyone
afternoon

I see a J storm in late October early November in the Carribean but dies out due to shear and its moisture is pushed Northeast toward Florida by a cold front
How could you possibly see that????
the blob in the SE carribbean is getting mor organized it may be something to watch in the next few days.
Im physicic
Not to bump heads with anyone... But I don't see any development for the next two weeks...
physicic

I mean im psycic
story, thats the blob that 23 was referring to a few days ago. I do believe this storm will become something, just do not believe we will know much until that big trough comes down in a few days. This front by Florida will have to settle in place for a bit before we can see anything come off of it.
229. eye
the most overhyped season ever.......is ending with a thud
Before everyone becomes morose, keep in mind that things can change on a dime. Not saying they will, but we've been here and done that before. Heads up and eyes wide open!
There's a new blog.

Jeff Masters
TD UF!!!!!
Now I'm the last to comment on this blog page,Proabably