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Typhoon Utor Pounds Phiippines, Heads for China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:51 PM GMT on August 12, 2013

Typhoon Utor powered ashore on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Monday near 3 am local time (3 pm EDT Sunday) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Damage was heavy in Casiguran (population 24,000) near where the typhoon made landfall, with 80% of the infrastructure of the town reportedly destroyed, and all roads into the city blocked. Utor is being blamed for two deaths so far, and 44 fishermen are reported as missing.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at approximately 02:30 UTC on Monday, August 12. At the time, Utor was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon disrupted the inner core of Utor, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 100 mph. Satellite imagery shows that the typhoon is re-organizing, and a new eyewall is forming. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. These favorable conditions for intensification will last until the typhoon gets midway between the Philippines and China, where wind shear will rise to the moderate range and ocean waters will cool to 29°C with a much lower heat content. I expect Utor will intensify into a Category 3 storm today, and make landfall in China as a Category 2 or 3 storm about 200 hundred miles southwest of Hong Kong about 06 UTC on Wednesday. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Southeast China on Wednesday. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Utor reached super typhoon status with 150 mph winds on Sunday, making it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Video 1. News video of the damage from Typhoon Utor in Casiguran in the Philippines. Utor is being called Typhoon Labuyo locally in the Philippines. Thanks to wunderground member AussieStorm for posting this in my blog comments.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Activity possible late this week in the Gulf of Mexico
A tropical wave in the Central to Eastern Caribbean is kicking up disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads westwards. Wind shear is a very high 40 knots over the region, and the wave is not a threat to develop for the next two days. However, once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, some of the models are suggesting that the wave will find a region with lower wind shear, and a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or farther north in the Gulf of Mexico. If it penetrates far enough into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical wave could interact with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week. This interaction could produce a hybrid low pressure system that might be partially tropical, and capable of bringing heavy rains to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system a 20% of developing by Saturday, and a 0% chance of developing by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. Grothar
Quoting 1969. stormhawg:


My guess would be over my house in Blue Mountain Beach, hanging out for a couple of days enjoying tea and crumpets, then lollygagging NE through Dothan and up to the Carolinas...


Luckily it will be two miles west of Blue Mountain Beach. :)
2002. hu2007
everything in the atlantic is starting to take shape especially near africa and the mjo is knocking the atlantic door way to make development easier for cycloes to form
2003. ricderr
A lopsided system with convection weighted to the east on a track like that would bring high moisture content over the Tampa Bay area.

the ultimate of wishcasting...is when we don't have a true blob....we don't have an invest....we don't have a storm...we don't have a track.....and people are talking about a LOPSIDED storm that could affect tampa...



Good grief charlie brown
2005. Grothar
Quoting 1956. Drakoen:


Exactly Gro. The models, including the ECMWF , which has been showing this for the past couple of runs btw, a large weakness in the Gulf of Mexico, due to a cut off low level disturbance preventing the subtropical ridge from extending far west into the GOM. Should a system develop it would likely move more poleward as it rounds the low level high.


I couldn't have said it better myself. :)
Quoting 2003. ricderr:
A lopsided system with convection weighted to the east on a track like that would bring high moisture content over the Tampa Bay area.

the ultimate of wishcasting...is when we don't have a true blob....we don't have an invest....we don't have a storm...we don't have a track.....and people are talking about a LOPSIDED storm that could affect tampa...



Good grief charlie brown


Reported! Unreal some of the post on here lately.
Actually got 1/8" of rain last night, only the 2nd time it's rained in the past 9 days. This dry spell is about to come to end, however, thanks to our wave in the SW Carib. All that tropical moisture, regardless of development, looks to amp up the rain chances for the whole state as it moves north.
2008. Grothar
Quoting 1999. mcdsara1:
Perhaps this has been answered, has there been an official blob alert yet?


No, there are no blob alerts at this time.
Good morning, everyone

Beautiful blue-skied morning, light breeze and not too hot yet.

Sitting here making phone calls, leaving messages and killing time to get all the fish orders together. Anyone interested in yellowtail snapper fillet today? Fresh off the boat 7 hours ago!

Lindy
2010. FOREX
Quoting 2004. 69Viking:


Do you see a Westward or NW movement?
For what it's worth, the 12z NAM continues to bring the Low into the BOC. But lots of moisture all the way up to the gulf coast.
2012. FOREX
Quoting 2008. Grothar:


No, there are no blob alerts at this time.


Maybe a blob alert by 6pm Grothar?
2013. Kumo
Quoting 1625. TheTJE:
So I guess the most pressing nonweather question on this blog tonight for me is - will the poster above who ignored me take me off ignore if I'm right? Apparently newbies don't get to have an opinion or even defend themselves. I've been a member a while, but just started working nights and was looking to get more involved. As to the poster who replied about me "living on the edge" - I live in The Florida Keys and work at a resort backed up to The Florida Straights - I couldn't be anymore affected by the weather. I've just lived here for this season and one a few years back and while I don't wish for loss of life and land a morbid and curious part of me wants to see a Hurricane - a small one because anything about Cat 2 and I'm evacuating. I hope to start posting more, and should a storm come I'll be around to post before and after pictures. So Hi bloggers - maybe I got off on the wrong foot.


Hello, hope you folks have a calm rest of the Summer. If a tropical storm or depression heads your way, send it to Texas, we could definitely still use the rain.

Some folks in this blog are on edge right now because of the seemingly endless train of people claiming and complaining that the season is bust. I can see their point, especially since we have not even got to the busy part of the season yet. If you have been watching the tropics for awhile you know that sometimes August is rather quiet, but when September rolls around, we can often get a brutal onslaught of storms lasting until mid-October.

Global warming can be a touchy subject here on the blog, it's best to only have a healthy discussion either for or against it during the hurricane off-season or when Dr. Masters posts a blog entry on it.

Politics can also be a very touchy subject, seems we have a good mix of people from either side of the spectrum. It's best to keep that kind of discussion to a minimum, or if it can't be avoided, keep things civil.

If someone engages in a personal attack on your beliefs, you can always report their post and place them on ignore.

Chances are he probably won't take you off ignore until you show a pattern of healthy and non-inflammatory discussion. Don't worry about it, it happens. There have been others on the blog who have been perceived to be trolls that have gone on to be respected and make quite a few friends here.

If you need to vent, it's always a good idea to take it to your own personal WU blog or other message forum where it is acceptable.
2014. MTWX
Quoting 2006. StormTrackerScott:


Reported! Unreal some of the post on here lately.


Welcome to Hurricane Season Scott!! LOL!
Quoting 2004. 69Viking:


Looking better Viking.
Quoting 1976. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL...how did you all fare during Georges? I know he ripped through the Greater Antilles.


The eye of Georges passed over the island of St. Kitts then around 50 miles to my south west... as a 110 MPH category 2... and I can tell you that from 2 to 5 am it was almost as bad as Cat 4 Luis 3 years earlier.

The NW quadrant of a storm is just insane! There have been reports of isolated tornados, and wind increase due to local effects as the eye was at its closest.

In 1999, Lenny produced very similar conditions and the vegetation took years to restore...





Quoting 2014. MTWX:


Welcome to Hurricane Season Scott!! LOL!


Caleb is great poster on here and for someone to come on here and attack him in that manner is unexceptable.
2018. Bielle
Quoting 2009. VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good morning, everyone

Beautiful blue-skied morning, light breeze and not too hot yet.

Sitting here making phone calls, leaving messages and killing time to get all the fish orders together. Anyone interested in yellowtail snapper fillet today? Fresh off the boat 7 hours ago!

Lindy


Lovely idea. It's just a long, long way from you to me. :)
Utor coming into radar view within South China...

Click picture for loop

maybe invest coming soon.
2023. MTWX
2019: may want to check your grammar...
2024. VR46L
Quoting 2006. StormTrackerScott:


Reported! Unreal some of the post on here lately.


I thought it was a funny and truthful comment .

Nothing has formed yet and 3 of the better ,none experimental models are only seeing a rain maker ..upper levels are not right at the moment and there is a strong shear forecast ...
here we go!! need to be watch I mean it!
2026. MahFL
Quoting 2023. MTWX:
2019: may want to check your grammar...


You mean spelling ?
Quoting 2018. Bielle:


Lovely idea. It's just a long, long way from you to me. :)


So true. Too bad dry ice doesn't exist on this island. I would definitely have a market on the mainland!

-L
Quoting 2003. ricderr:
A lopsided system with convection weighted to the east on a track like that would bring high moisture content over the Tampa Bay area.

the ultimate of wishcasting...is when we don't have a true blob....we don't have an invest....we don't have a storm...we don't have a track.....and people are talking about a LOPSIDED storm that could affect tampa...



Good grief charlie brown


Do you have absolutely any idea how to read? That path would increas moisture for west central Florida. There is more nonsense in that response than in an entire book of ravings of a madman.
2029. IKE
Think I see a spin on those western Caribbean clouds....appears to be SW of Jamaica....under the convection.
Quoting 2003. ricderr:
A lopsided system with convection weighted to the east on a track like that would bring high moisture content over the Tampa Bay area.

the ultimate of wishcasting...is when we don't have a true blob....we don't have an invest....we don't have a storm...we don't have a track.....and people are talking about a LOPSIDED storm that could affect tampa...



Good grief charlie brown


Are you serious, you are calling that wishcasting? That is not even close to wishcasting. He is just listing a scenario. I think wishcasting would be more on the lines of him saying something like a lopsided system bringing category 3 winds to Tampa. That's wishcasting bro. He is just making an observation that it would be lopsided because of the possible shear profile in 4-6 days.

Stop trying to attack people and get a grip. This fella is NOT wishcasting.
2031. MTWX
Quoting 2026. MahFL:


You mean spelling ?


Never been too good at English, but yeah... ;)
Quoting 2024. VR46L:


I thought it was a funny and truthful comment .

Nothing has formed yet and 3 of the better ,none experimental models are only seeing a rain maker ..upper levels are not right at the moment and there is a strong shear forecast ...


If you think that is truthful then that calls into question your knowledge of anything related to weather. A gulf system even away from the fl peninsula would increase moisture there.
On the HWRF that is going to be a TS
Quoting 2022. hurricanes2018:
maybe invest coming soon.
Quoting 2023. MTWX:
2019: may want to check your grammar...


#2017 also...
2035. cg2916
Is there any notable reason that shear is still so high this late into the season?
Quoting 2021. FLScouser:

Do WHAT to the blog?


Take what he wrote in context, then see that U and I are next to each other on the keyboard.
Quoting 2016. CaribBoy:


The eye of Georges passed over the island of St. Kitts then around 50 miles to my south west... as a 110 MPH category 2... and I can tell you that from 2 to 5 am it was almost as bad as Cat 4 Luis 3 years earlier.

The NW quadrant of a storm is just insane! There have been reports of isolated tornados, and wind increase due to local effects as the eye was at its closest.

In 1999, Lenny produced very similar conditions and the vegetation took years to restore...







Look at the landfall of Georges in PR.

06zGFS-Ensembles @700mb

Not showing much more than a trof axis through 72hrs.
No defined circulation in the midlayer, stuck in the easterlies below the midlevel ridging.

More of a weak circulation as it nears the 500mb troughing once it is out in the gulf in the 72-90hr window(looks kind of subT to me...)
Quoting 2038. seminolesfan:
06zGFS-Ensembles @700mb

Not showing much more than a trof axis through 72hrs.
No defined circulation in the midlayer, stuck in the easterlies below the midlevel ridging.

More of a weak circulation as it nears the 500mb troughing once it is out in the gulf in the 72-90hr window(looks kind of subT to me...)


The ensembles rarely - if ever - show a tropical cyclone. Ensemble support is actually better than yesterday, and have clustered onto the Gulf coast idea instead of Levi's western Gulf idea.
Quoting 2016. CaribBoy:


The eye of Georges passed over the island of St. Kitts then around 50 miles to my south west... as a 110 MPH category 2... and I can tell you that from 2 to 5 am it was almost as bad as Cat 4 Luis 3 years earlier.

The NW quadrant of a storm is just insane! There have been reports of isolated tornados, and wind increase due to local effects as the eye was at its closest.

In 1999, Lenny produced very similar conditions and the vegetation took years to restore...





I was 28 in 1998 when Georges struck PR. Lost power for about 2 months. I can easily say that was the most horrendous experience in my life. Hope you are not talking about Georges thinking that this year we could have another one?
Quoting 2023. MTWX:
2019: may want to check your grammar...

Freudian slip?
2042. IKE

Quoting IKE:
Think I see a spin on those western Caribbean clouds....appears to be SW of Jamaica....under the convection.
Also....appears to be moving north of west.
2043. CJ5
For those who where alarmed at the pictures that where going around showing the north pole in open water, the truth has been revealed.

"Images of a scientific observation buoy floating in what appeared to be an Arctic lake near the North Pole lit up the online world in the past week, sparking questions about whether this was a sign of global warming.

On Monday, the scientist who installed the buoy gave a succinct answer: No"

Link

I agree that there is climate change going on but the AGW and activist crowd is not doing much to help their cause when they produce BS and claim it as fact.


Here is the 850vort with 200mb winds:

The possible low with upper level winds right nearby,
with all the baro support it would be more likely to see some type of frontal/subTrop/severely sheared presentation based on the GFS-ens.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

HAPPENING TODAY, 2 pm ET! Tweet us your hurricane questions for NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center's Director Dr. Rick Knabb and Senior Forecaster Dan Brown for today's live Tweet Chat on @NOAALive Twitter feed. Please tag your questions with ‪#‎Hurrichat‬ and @NOAALive so we can find them!

Details: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130808_ nhc_tweetchat.html
any one like the E.atlantic wave? should be tagged an invest
Quoting 2046. wunderweatherman123:
any one like the E.atlantic wave? should be tagged an invest


Is it potential TS Erin before the Gulf system? Maybe? I like it for development though.
2048. hydrus
Hurricane Charley was small, powerful, and simply ripped Charlotte Harbor to pieces. This is a picture on Captiva Island next door from where I grew up at Twin Palms Marina..This was a tree cave so to speak before the hurricane.

2049. BDAwx
The eye of Utor on radar now out of southern China. Beware, webpage is in chinese.
Quoting 2032. GrandCaymanMed:


If you think that is truthful then that calls into question your knowledge of anything related to weather. A gulf system even away from the fl peninsula would increase moisture there.


Excuse me but I believe VR said it would be a rain maker even if nothing formed. Remember at this time there is no "system"
Good morning again

Puerto Cabezas reporting NNW winds and a pressure of 1010 mbs. This would place the surface low off to the East of there so it would appear the low is drifting up to the N slowly before moving off to the WNW in the low level steering flow.

Ramsdis has also reoriented its floater to the N and West to widen the field of view in those directions

2052. Grothar
Quoting 2012. FOREX:


Maybe a blob alert by 6pm Grothar?


No. I don't want to be know around here as the old guy who yelled "blob".
Y'all hold down the fort and keep the gates closed (well, except for TX, good rain only there though)!




Some good advice to self and to our bloggers. Successful communication is an art form!
Play nice, boys and girls, and have a nice day! :)
2054. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Reported! Unreal some of the post on here lately.


You have been reported, for circumventing a previous 3 bans! You mad?
Quoting 2052. Grothar:


No. I don't want to be know around here as the old guy who yelled "blob".


Too late . . . but you do it with such authority.

How are things?

Was in your neck o' the woods for a bit. Beautiful weather while there, discounting the first couple of days of solid rain.

Thanks for making the arrangements.
2056. VR46L
Quoting 2032. GrandCaymanMed:


If you think that is truthful then that calls into question your knowledge of anything related to weather. A gulf system even away from the fl peninsula would increase moisture there.


I never said it wouldn't ... all I am saying is that, its not even certain that a system will form ... the 3 more reliable models are not buying a TS but are a rainmaker and the NHC are not all that enthusiastic, .... No need to attack me because I was agreeing with a comment that was light hearted ! Jeez

Quoting 2039. CybrTeddy:


The ensembles rarely - if ever - show a tropical cyclone. Ensemble support is actually better than yesterday, and have clustered onto the Gulf coast idea instead of Levi's western Gulf idea.


Ahh, but there lies the rub, Ted...

Ensembles are more 'touchy' to changing patterns and environments so by their very nature you should EXPECT them to not spuriously overindulge in intensification.

They do work fabulously for layer by layer 'snooping' on the possibilities for evolution of a general environment if you don't look too finely at the smaller details.

Its a tool like all the other models; Ya gotta know how to swing your hammers! :)
Quoting 2023. MTWX:
2019: may want to check your grammar...
Actually, it is his word choice, but it is most likely a spelling error.
2059. cynyc2
Quoting 2049. BDAwx:
The eye of Utor on radar now out of southern China. Beware, webpage is in chinese.
In the upper right, click "English Version".
Quoting 2011. Sfloridacat5:
For what it's worth, the 12z NAM continues to bring the Low into the BOC. But lots of moisture all the way up to the gulf coast.


Well... that's where the FIMs were four or five days ago.. they probably have their storm hitting Bermuda by now....
Been a lot of speculation about a future Gulf System. I don't like to see poor little crows eaten.
This is the best scenario I can find on what seems plausible.
Save the Crows!

2062. hydrus
Quoting 2040. nocanesplease:
I was 28 in 1998 when Georges struck PR. Lost power for about 2 months. I can easily say that was the most horrendous experience in my life. Hope you are not talking about Georges thinking that this year we could have another one?
It is only my opinion, but Puerto Rico has a higher that normal chance of a strike this year. Georges was a very large storm, and at one point was almost a cat-5, but weakened considerably before hitting the Antilles and P.R., probably due to dry air. Her is the link on Georges..Link
img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons /thumb/7/72/Georges_1998_track.p/800px-Georges_1 998_track.png"Georges hitting Biloxi.

Impact Weather Atlantic Season Outlook Update Webinar will
start at 11:30 eastern time.
Quoting 2043. CJ5:
For those who where alarmed at the pictures that where going around showing the north pole in open water, the truth has been revealed.

"Images of a scientific observation buoy floating in what appeared to be an Arctic lake near the North Pole lit up the online world in the past week, sparking questions about whether this was a sign of global warming.

On Monday, the scientist who installed the buoy gave a succinct answer: No"

Link

I agree that there is climate change going on but the AGW and activist crowd is not doing much to help their cause when they produce BS and claim it as fact.


Lol. No one here has claimed it as truth. We are quite aware of the drift of the buoy. What you seem to ignore is that even accounting for drift, the sea ice shouldn't be in such a mess, especially considering the below normal temps this year. Come to Dr. Rood's blog, we are pretty good with science over there.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2066. Drakoen
Closest buoys show that surface pressure are not falling, so not much organization at the surface at the moment.
2067. Grothar
ESPI warmed a little..-2.86


Cleaned up the misspelling & quotes of that...try & mind your u's & i's..


New Blog!

2069. NCstu
Noob question: how does one predict supercells in the context of a tropical storm? Pressure? Wind Speed? Forward Speed? Moisture? Other? All of the above?
2070. Nimitz
Quoting 2007. Stoopid1:
Actually got 1/8" of rain last night, only the 2nd time it's rained in the past 9 days. This dry spell is about to come to end, however, thanks to our wave in the SW Carib. All that tropical moisture, regardless of development, looks to amp up the rain chances for the whole state as it moves north.


Ah..the week before I had 13 1/2" in seven days, including that 3 inches in 45 minutes, not mentioning the Monument Road EF-2 tornado. We NEEDED to dry up a bit in case a storm did come: last thing we need is saturated ground and a lot of water oaks falling over.
Just to show how decent the GFS Ens is at pattern evolution:



This was the 96hr forecast at the same 700mb level from
00z Aug 9th.




Looks very similar to the analysis for the 0z Run today, right?

(I didn't pick and choose either, just went back to the run under 100hrs from the 0z 13th run...)
Some broad cyclonic turning is start to begin with P16 the tropical wave axis seems to be consolidating around the Nicaragua low around 13N and 80W. It has begin to drift slowly north into the convection. A invest could be tagged later this afternoon if this continues there. This maybe caused by upper level winds decreasing slowly over our AOI



At 2pm I would increase the chance to 20% within the next 48 hours as we move up in time where cyclogenesis is predicted and 40% in the next 5 days.
Quoting 2071. seminolesfan:
Just to show how decent the GFS Ens is at pattern evolution:



This was the 96hr forecast at the same 700mb level from
00z Aug 9th.




Looks very similar to the analysis for the 0z Run today, right?

(I didn't pick and choose either, just went back to the run under 100hrs from the 0z 13th run...)
Seems like the HP is not so strong anymore. More tendency to have notrth moving storms or is this just climatology and normal?
Quoting 2004. 69Viking:
. Looks like we need to watch East of Florida , good spin with it , I don't know if it's down to the surface , sure looks like , maybe the crayons should be out for it , and it looks like it's moving West !
Quoting 2000. StormTrackerScott:


You might get a nice cool wedge of cool air damming down the eastside of the Appalachians. Could have highs 20 to 30 degrees below average.

A high of 73 Saturday in Atlanta. Unheard of in August.
Unusual, yes. Bbut certainly far from "unheard of". Every August day in Atlanta has experienced a daily maximum in the 70s or--on more than a dozen occasions--in the 60s.
Quoting 2037. Tropicsweatherpr:


Look at the landfall of Georges in PR.



Yep very impressive...
Quoting 2040. nocanesplease:
I was 28 in 1998 when Georges struck PR. Lost power for about 2 months. I can easily say that was the most horrendous experience in my life. Hope you are not talking about Georges thinking that this year we could have another one?


You know, 15 years ago is old.. so unfortunately the probability of a new major trike increase each year.
2078. MahFL
Did the satellite go into eclipse or something ?
2079. sigh
Quoting 1715. Neapolitan:
Oh, so you're one of those, are you? A member of that group of believers convinced the NHC intentionally names storms it shouldn't just for the sake of inducing panic and bolstering global warming theory? You should know there's another group--roughly the same size as yours and every bit as vocal--that's certain the NHC doesn't name storms that it should because it doesn't want to induce panic. Maybe you guys could all get together for dinner and talk things over to see which of your competing cockamamie theories is least nonsensical. Be warned, though: such a large gathering of gullibility and vacuousness in one spot could be like a clash of matter and anti-matter, so the whole confab could vanish with a "POP!" and a blinding flash of light.

That is, if we're lucky. ;-)


Duly harsh. Well done.


Convection keeps lifting North, we're getting some showers now.

Winds out of the NW/NNW at Puerta Cabazes, Nicaragua
new keybd test got it at goodwill 2$ yee-haw thanks for new blog dr masters
Quoting 2075. Neapolitan:
Unusual, yes. Bbut certainly far from "unheard of". Every August day in Atlanta has experienced a daily maximum in the 70s or--on more than a dozen occasions--in the 60s.


Really all it takes is a rainy and very cloudy day.
Like a TC environment.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT COULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE WAVE ENTERS A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.


&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.
2087. GatorWX
I want to give GT props for sticking with this system in the Caribbean when so many were doubting. It's comin together. I had my doubts, but at the same time, I knew its be a slow evolution. It seems to be tightening up now. Although I really can foresee this becoming a formidable system, I do think it'll be a tropical storm in the next 72 hrs as conditions improve. It certainly has plenty of moisture to work with.
2088. GatorWX
And afternoon all, finally something to look at. I haven't even looked at Africa today, but one of the two, I think (underlined) will be first, the other second. I realize conditions are still pretty dry in the mdr, but nothing like two weeks ago. Chantal/Dorian conditions. It's my impression that although a few may develop out there, there won't be any Igors with current persistent conditions out there. NW Caribbean and GOM, I've thought all along this would be where the action is, perhaps just north of the islands into the Bahamas as well. Shear should abate, but this won't be 2005 lol. 15-18 sounds reasonable. Maybe 5-7 hurricanes and 1-3 majors. There, can't believe I did, but I said it. 15-18/5-7/2-3. A few glasses of saint cosme cotes du rhone (cheap and a very good red if you can find it) and the Rolling Stones have a profound affect on my thinking and presentation lol. Here's to having something interesting to look at in the Atlantic. Toasting the tropics!
2089. GatorWX


Well there's our African wave. Looks to be on its way as well, eh. It has to make it to the Caribbean to be a player probably, even if it does develop moderately out there. I can't see an Igor any time soon.