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Typhoon Roke bears down on Japan; 98L continues to grow more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:48 PM GMT on September 20, 2011

Powerful Category 3 Typhoon Roke is bearing down on Japan, and is expected to hit the main island of Honshu on Wednesday morning, local time. Roke is on a dangerous track for Japan, one that would take the storm over some of the most heavily populated areas of the country. Heavy rains from Roke have already reached the coast of Japan, as seen on Japanese radar. However, Roke is starting to weaken, as seen in latest satellite imagery. The eye is no longer apparent, the cloud tops have warmed, and a slot of dry air has gotten wrapped into the storm's northwest side. Wind shear should continue to weaken Roke as it approaches landfall; shear is currently a high 20 knots, and will increase to 30 knots by Wednesday morning. Given the current weakening trend, I expect Roke is most likely to be a Category 2 typhoon at landfall.

Typhoon's Roke's storm surge, winds, and heavy rains will all be a concern. A damaging storm surge is likely to the right of where the center makes landfall, since Roke is a large storm whose winds are spread out over a wide area. If Roke tracks farther to the east than expected, a large storm surge may affect Tokyo Bay. Perhaps the biggest concern from the storm is heavy rain. The soils over much of Japan are saturated from the passage of Tropical Storm Talas during the first week of September. Talas was a very slow moving storm, and brought extreme rainfall amounts of over six feet to some portions of Japan. Roke is expected to bring up to 20 more inches of rain along its path. Roke could bring winds of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches to the damaged Fukishima-Dai-Iche nuclear plant northeast of Tokyo.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Typhoon Roke taken at 1:45 pm local time (4:45 UTC) on Tuesday, September 20, 2011. At the time, Roke was a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Invest 98L continues to grow more organized
A tropical wave midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (Invest 98L) has increased in organization this afternoon, but still lacks a well-defined surface circulation. Satellite imagery shows a number of curved spiral bands have formed this afternoon, and the area covered by heavy thunderstorms has steadily increased. An ASCAT pass from 8:21 am EDT this morning did not capture the full circulation of the storm, but did show winds of 30 mph on the east side of the center. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model has increased to a moderate 10 - 15 knots, and is predicted to stay moderate through Friday. Ocean temperatures are 28 - 28.5°C, well above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 98L is embedded in a moist environment, but there is dry air to the system's northwest. Given that the shear has now increased to the moderate level, this dry air may begin to hinder development on Wednesday. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a pattern favorable for development, with an outflow channel open to both the north and south available to ventilate the storm and allow 98L to efficiently lift plenty of moisture to high levels.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of 98L.

The latest 8 am EDT (12Z) runs of the computer models show either no development of 98L, or development of 98L into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Saturday. 98L's westward motion of 5 - 10 mph should bring the storm into the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday, though the models are not in strong agreement about the forward speed of the storm. The GFDL model brings 98L into the islands on Friday, while the HWRF model keeps the storm east of the islands through Sunday. If 98L takes a more west-northwesterly path through northern Lesser Antilles, which has been the preferred track for tropical systems this year, the disturbance should encounter high wind shear in excess of 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. This shear should make it difficult for 98L to intensify as it moves though the islands. However, if 98L takes a more southerly path across Barbados, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm will miss seeing the high shear area that lies over the northern islands, and the storm would have more opportunity to strengthen. The most likely scenario I see at this point is for 98L to be a weak tropical storm on Saturday as it moves through the Lesser Antilles--but there is more than the usual amount of uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast. NHC gave the disturbance a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday in their 2 pm Tropical Weather Outlook.

September temperatures return to normal over the U.S.
The summer of 2011 was the second hottest in U.S. history, but September of 2011 is so far shaping up to be an average one for temperature. A series of cold fronts and cold-cored low pressure systems have moved southwards out of Canada this month, bringing typical amounts of cool air to the country. If you want to select dates for the start and end of the U.S. heat wave of 2011, the dates to pick would be May 20 - September 4. During the period May 20 - September 4, 2011, the number of daily record high temperatures at the 515 major airports in the U.S. exceeded the number of daily low temperature records every day but one. That's an astonishing 107 out of 108 days! Only July 15 had more record daily lows than highs during that 108-day period. I doubt one could find a similar stretch of days anytime in U.S. weather history where such a lopsided ratio of high temperature to low temperature records existed. For the 3-month summer period of June, July, and August, 2703 daily high temperature records were set, compared to 300 daily low temperature records--a ratio of 9-to-1. Not surprisingly, the summer of 2011 wound up as the hottest summer in 75 years in the U.S., and was only 0.1°F cooler than the all-time record hottest summer, during the Dust Bowl year of 1936. But so far this September, the ratio of high temperature records to low temperature records has been close to 1-to-1. There were 283 daily high temperature records set during the first sixteen days of September, and 246 low temperature records. Eight of the first sixteen days of September have seen the lows outnumber the highs, and eight have seen the highs outnumber the lows. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows a continuation of pretty normal weather over the U.S. for the rest of the month, and September temperatures will end up close to average.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. beell
GFS showing good consistency in developing 96E (Hilary) in the EPAC then bringing it NNW along the coast of MX and finally very near or into southern CA/AZ. At least one deep trough passing to the north may keep it closer to the coast. September is the favored month for systems to bring some weather to SOCAL.

SST's are a bit warmer than usual so it may hold together a bit farther north than most storms that develop in the EPAC. A strong trough either phases with the storm or picks it up and out to the NE over the desert SW. Probably moving pretty quick at that point so the flash flood risk could be minimized.

Nothing but a curiosity at this point.

click for big
SST's Valid 09/17



SST Anomaly



09/20 18Z GFS 850mb Vort
Valid @ 240 hrs
deleted: again misposted some coordinates I meant to temporarily store in the NewComment box.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ASCAT still looks a little elongated from NE to SW.
agreed.

If this is the ASCAT pass everyone is so excited about, it does not constitute a well defined closed circulation.




It may be there now, but it is certainly not in this pass.
Quoting Chicklit:

it's spinning counterclockwise with spiral banding with definite organization.
Any time a system resembles a buzz saw I sit up and wonder.
LinkCATLoop
While it may not meet your expectations of a developing system it has enough characteristics of one to watch for development. Basically all 98L needs right now is to tighten up.
[ ].

I agree with him about the monsoon trough, though. Until 98L gets organized enough to pull out of it, it's not likely to get classified.

I find it interesting that TAFB has been analysing that monsoon trough all the way across the ATL at times, with little genuine ITCZ action. I'm wondering how much that difference is impacting our ability to accurately forecast storm cyclogenesis with African waves this year.
505. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ASCAT still looks a little elongated from NE to SW.


Yep, similar to the Windsat pass.
98L is still rather broad and this is partly why it's taking so long to close of a single circulation. It has to pull all of that energy into a mean center. Based on sat imagery and the voticity readings, it looks like a center is trying to develop to the south-west of the original low pressure center (nearest the deep convection). Separation from the monsoon trof would be beneficicial because it's only hindering its ability to tighten up.
507. JLPR2
Quoting TomTaylor:
agreed.

If this is the ASCAT pass everyone is excited about, that does not constitute a well defined closed circulation



Old.
Quoting BDADUDE:
I may try it. Maybe tonight if i get a chance to see what the fuss is all about.





you dont no what you been missing all your life
Until the low-level vorticity breaks out of the ITCZ this system will not develop.
The only reason there is any stronger low-level vorticity is because it is still tangled up down there.
The shear to the North of the system is not allowing a Northward migration yet.



I say that 98L is very close to a TD now, but will not be classified for at least 12 hours. Im going to say 2pm or 5pm on Wednesday.
I am sure someone posted/commented on this earlier but I did not notice it. This is too far out to have any reality yet but this is line with what Levi was saying a few days ago.


Quoting TomTaylor:
agreed.

If this is the ASCAT pass everyone is so excited about, it does not constitute a well defined closed circulation.




It may be there now, but it is certainly not in this pass.




thats old
513. JLPR2
Quoting DiddyVort:
Until the low-level vorticity breaks out of the ITCZ this system will not develop.
The only reason there is any stronger low-level vorticity is because it is still tangled up down there.
The shear to the North of the system is not allowing a Northward migration yet.





That is not right, the only problem the ITCZ is causing 98L is that it is stealing the focus of the lower level convergence, limiting 98L's ability to fire up strong convection over its center.
Quoting beell:
GFS showing good consistency in developing 96E (Hilary) in the EPAC then bringing it NNW along the coast of MX and finally very near or into southern CA/AZ. At least one deep trough passing to the north may keep it closer to the coast. September is the favored month for systems to bring some weather to SOCAL.

SST's are a bit warmer than usual so it may hold together a bit farther north than most storms that develop in the EPAC. A strong trough either phases with the storm or picks it up and out to the NE over the desert SW. Probably moving pretty quick at that point so the flash flood risk could be minimized.

Nothing but a curiosity at this point.

click for big
SST's Valid 09/17



SST Anomaly



09/20 18Z GFS 850mb Vort
Valid @ 240 hrs
Nice to see you back Beell! I thought you had closed shop!
Quoting JLPR2:


Sure.





I wouldn't call that closed.

It's elongated, and open to the SW. Note the lack of any westerly, northwesterly, or southwesterly wind vectors. All I see is SSW-N winds.

Not enough to call it closed, imo.

Quoting Tazmanian:




thats old

regardless, it still looks open.
98L's only hope is to lay low along the monsoonal trough until it makes it into the Caribbean.
Currently its fate is unclear of unusual proportion.
517. JLPR2
Quoting TomTaylor:




I wouldn't call that closed.

It's elongated, and open to the SW. Note the lack of any westerly, northwesterly, or southwesterly wind vectors. All I see is SSW-N winds.

Not enough to call it closed, imo.


regardless, it still looks open.


You are not supposed to see those on a partial pass, especially when the circulation is so large, ASCAT probably missed those. To my belief it is elongated NE to SW but probably closed.
Models looking even crazier than before...





Here's the hi-res of the latest ASCAT pass. I see SW to N winds. Still no sign of anything from NW to WSW.
Quoting TomTaylor:




I wouldn't call that closed.

It's elongated, and open to the SW. Note the lack of any westerly, northwesterly, or southwesterly wind vectors. All I see is SSW-N winds.

Not enough to call it closed, imo.


regardless, it still looks open.



i would wait in tell a new passs
Quoting Chicklit:
98L's only hope is to lay low along the monsoonal trough until it makes it into the Caribbean.
Cant see it making the Caribbean. Its destined to take a track similiar to Katia.
I know this is not weather related. However I am going to ring the siren that there may be a huge earthquake somewhere in the ring of fire on September 25 - 27. This due to the alignment of a comet named Elenin. It seems to be very large. The alignment of March 11th, 2011 (the 9.0 earthquake in Japan) was just slightly less of that on December 26th, 2004 (The planets Mercury, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn alignment) Just thought that you should know that.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Cant see it making the Caribbean. Its destined to take a track similiar to Katia.



Bermuda needs too watch 98L
Is 98L acquiring an anticyclone?
Quoting TomTaylor:


Here's the hi-res of the latest ASCAT pass. I see SW to N winds. Still no sign of anything from NW to WSW.


Right because you are looking at a partial pass and a not a complete pass. The system undoubtedly has a closed circulation.

Should be Ophelia if any upgrade is made:

Quoting Tazmanian:



Bermuda needs too watch 98L
I dont think it will come near us.
wISH CASTING 98l
Quoting Drakoen:


Right because you are looking at a partial pass and a not a complete pass. The system undoubtedly has a closed circulation.

Should be Ophelia if any upgrade is made:



Would you agree that the NHC is being conservative with this system?

I mean...come on! 70% for an invest that looks better than Jose?
529. JLPR2
Quoting Drakoen:


Right because you are looking at a partial pass and a not a complete pass. The system undoubtedly has a closed circulation.

Should be Ophelia if any upgrade is made:



Some approx 36-37knots winds in there. Impressive.
Quoting JLPR2:


Some approx 36-37knots winds in there. Impressive.
=??? Mph?
Drakoen,why NHC says it still does not have a well defined closed circulation?.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Would you agree that the NHC is being conservative with this system?

I mean...come on! 70% for an invest that looks better than Jose?


Probably
ATCF just raised 98L to 35 knots, but no renum:

AL, 98, 2011092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
534. JLPR2
Quoting Chicklit:
Is 98L acquiring an anticyclone?


98L is busy getting ready, yes, it seems to have acquired a weak one.
Quoting Speeky:
I know this is not weather related. However I am going to ring the siren that there may be a huge earthquake somewhere in the ring of fire on September 25 - 27. This due to the alignment of a comet named Elenin. It seems to be very large. The alignment of March 11th, 2011 (the 9.0 earthquake in Japan) was just slightly less of that on December 26th, 2004 (The planets Mercury, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn alignment) Just thought that you should know that.


Do you have anything to support this idea? Because this was the first thing I found in regards to elenin..

Link
518. hurricanejunky 9:08 PM EDT on September 20, 2011 Models looking even crazier than before...

GFS is showing a strong trough that would pick it up. That is the various turns N that is being shown.


Once she straightens up maybe she'll make an impression.Linkfunktoploopcatl
538. JLPR2
Quoting interstatelover7165:
=??? Mph?


A little over 40mph

Around 41-42mph
Quoting Tazmanian:



i would wait in tell a new passs
agreed taz

Quoting JLPR2:


You are not supposed to see those on a partial pass, especially when the circulation is so large, ASCAT probably missed those. To my belief it is elongated NE to SW but probably closed.
It's a partial pass, but if it were a non-elongated circulation, the pass would have been enough to see westerly winds.

Since it is an elongated circulation, the ASCAT pass may have missed those westerly winds, but I still wouldn't go about assuming it's closed. I'd wait for another ASCAT pass, or a conclusive buoy or ships report. I know that's what the NHC is doing, anyway. There is no question in my mind for why they left it as a 70% invest, rather than upgrading it to TD 16.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Drakoen,why NHC says it still does not have a well defined closed circulation?.


I don't know. I don't work for the NHC.
98L looks like it could be a HUGE storm.
Quoting Drakoen:


I don't know. I don't work for the NHC.


lol, good response.

XD
Quoting Drakoen:


I don't know. I don't work for the NHC.


lol
Storm centered WindSat, if you believe the rain contaminated barbs a broad NE to SW circulation 60-100 nm wide



545. JLPR2
Quoting Drakoen:


I don't know. I don't work for the NHC.


Ha!

Quoting TomTaylor:
It's a partial pass, but if it were a non-elongated circulation, the pass would have been enough to see westerly winds.

Since it is an elongated circulation, the ASCAT pass may have missed those westerly winds, but I still wouldn't go about assuming it's closed. I'd wait for another ASCAT pass, or a conclusive buoy or ships report. I know that's what the NHC is doing, anyway. There is no question in my mind for why they left it as a 70% invest, rather than upgrading it to TD 16.


Yes, well, we do have Oceansat that should be passing through that area in a few hours, hope it doesn't miss.
People of WUnderground, I think That We have ourselves Ophelia, just not oh-fficial.
Vorticity looks great. Does it have a well defined closed LLC yet?
548. JLPR2
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Storm centered WindSat, if you believe the rain contaminated barbs a broad NE to SW circulation 60-100 nm wide





WPac style.
550. beell
Quoting FrankZapper:
Nice to see you back Beell! I thought you had closed shop!


I have for the most part. From a purely personal/selfish/over-inflated-sense-of-my-own-val ue standpoint, posting here is no longer a good use of my time. But I could not resist a post for the left-coasters!

; - )
Quoting Speeky:
I know this is not weather related. However I am going to ring the siren that there may be a huge earthquake somewhere in the ring of fire on September 25 - 27. This due to the alignment of a comet named Elenin. It seems to be very large. The alignment of March 11th, 2011 (the 9.0 earthquake in Japan) was just slightly less of that on December 26th, 2004 (The planets Mercury, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn alignment) Just thought that you should know that.

Good looken out Speeky. :)
Quoting islandeye:


Do you have anything to support this idea? Because this was the first thing I found in regards to elenin..

Link


I'm a hell of a lot more worried about the satellite hitting me on the head
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Vorticity looks great. Does it have a well defined closed LLC yet?


Yes, it appears so.

I don't usually go against the NHC, but...they are wrong.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Storm centered WindSat, if you believe the rain contaminated barbs a broad NE to SW circulation 60-100 nm wide





Well, quite conclusive of a TS in my eyes. I was expecting it to be a TD by 8PM but we'll see if it makes it by 2AM, but I would lean towards a TS than a TD.
Quoting beell:


I have for the most part. From a purely personal/selfish/over-inflated-sense-of-my-own-val ue standpoint, posting here is no longer a good use of my time. But I could not resist a post for the left-coasters!

; - )


Your coverage of the EPAC storm was really good to see!
Quoting Drakoen:


Right because you are looking at a partial pass and a not a complete pass. The system undoubtedly has a closed circulation.

Should be Ophelia if any upgrade is made:

I lol'd.

Undoubtedly?

Let's draw a line through the last ASCAT pass to pretend that the pass was an incomplete pass like the current one and see what we get.






Look closely and we have SW to ENE winds. Not quite as complete of a circulation as the current pass, but if you look at the rest of the circulation it is clearly open. The current pass has SSW/SW to northerly winds and unknown vectors further to the west.

There is definitely doubt that this is closed, Drakoen. Have to disagree with your arrogance.

Will it close up soon? Absolutely, but there is definitely doubt about it being closed at the time of the ASCAT pass and right now. That is the very reason the NHC has kept the system at 70%.
I suspect when the NHC does pull the trigger on 98L it will go straight to TS status, jmo.
559. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, it appears so.

I don't usually go against the NHC, but...they are wrong.


Well to justify this:
BUT RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER.

They didn't have any Windsat or ASCAT images to work with at the moment.
Quoting Chicklit:
98L's only hope is to lay low along the monsoonal trough until it makes it into the Caribbean.
Currently its fate is unclear of unusual proportion.


How low? 16n?
Quoting TomTaylor:
I lol'd.

Undoubtedly?

Let's draw a line through the last ASCAT pass to pretend that the pass was an incomplete pass like the current one and see what we get.






Look closely and we have SW to ENE winds. Not quite as complete of a circulation as the current pass, but if you look at the rest of the circulation it is clearly open.

There is definitely doubt that this is closed, Drakoen.


No, there really isn't.

I'd explain my reasoning but I'm too lazy :P
Quoting Speeky:
I know this is not weather related. However I am going to ring the siren that there may be a huge earthquake somewhere in the ring of fire on September 25 - 27. This due to the alignment of a comet named Elenin. It seems to be very large. The alignment of March 11th, 2011 (the 9.0 earthquake in Japan) was just slightly less of that on December 26th, 2004 (The planets Mercury, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn alignment) Just thought that you should know that.


Earthquakes give me significant anxiety even if not near me. Thanks .____.
I think the COC of 98L is around 12.5N/39.5W
what are you talking about threat to bermuda, it is going west into the carribean...
Quoting WxLogic:


Well, quite conclusive of a TS in my eyes. I was expecting it to be a TD by 8PM but we'll see if it makes it by 2AM, but I would lean towards a TS than a TD.


In my eyes in needs to develop convection where WindSat indicated a possible circulation.





Since designation is a subjective decision, it will always be "discussed"
Quoting TomTaylor:
I lol'd.

Undoubtedly?

Let's draw a line through the last ASCAT pass to pretend that the pass was an incomplete pass like the current one and see what we get.






Look closely and we have SW to ENE winds. Not quite as complete of a circulation as the current pass, but if you look at the rest of the circulation it is clearly open.

There is definitely doubt that this is closed, Drakoen.


You are undoubtedly confused on reading ASCAT passes. You're are using a different pass at a time when the structure of 98L was different and trying to prove a point about a current pass that is invalid.
This weather blog has jumped the gun on many tropical storms this year I don't think the NHC will upgrade it anytime soon
Wake me up when Ninety-eight is classified. seriously.i'm getting bored.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Vorticity looks great. Does it have a well defined closed LLC yet?
It will soon, if it does not already. At the moment, it's impossible to say (based off evidence, not ego) that this is a closed circulation.
Quoting scooster67:


How low? 16n?

If 98L can stay below 15N she has a chance of running the gauntlet.
Quoting markot:
what are you talking about threat to bermuda, it is going west into the carribean...
No way. Its following Katia so will be no threat to Bermuda.
Quoting Drakoen:


You are undoubtedly confused on reading ASCAT passes. You're are using a different pass at a time when the structure of 98L was different and trying to prove a point about a current pass that is invalid.
No I'm illustrating a point.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


In my eyes in needs to develop convection where WindSat indicated a possible circulation.





Since designation is a subjective decision, it will always be "discussed"


Can't disagree there.
98 seems to be becoming more disorganized.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


In my eyes in needs to develop convection where WindSat indicated a possible circulation.





Since designation is a subjective decision, it will always be "discussed"


That was made at 4:15 PM EDT.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, there really isn't.

I'd explain my reasoning but I'm too lazy :P
Well if you ever decide to take the time, I'm here waiting.

I see no reason why this can't have been an inverted trough (as opposed to a closed circulation) at the time of the pass.

I'm arrogant? LOL. I need to go back to lurking.
Quoting Drakoen:
I'm arrogant? LOL. I need to go back to lurking.


Incorrect.
584. JLPR2
Quoting TomTaylor:
It will soon, if it does not already. At the moment, it's impossible to say (based off evidence, not ego) that this is a closed circulation.


Ok. We cant be 100% sure if it is closed or open since this is just a partial pass. So we are going by opinion. Yours is that it is open and Drak's and mine that it is closed.
I hope Oceanscat gives us a nice view of the system to solve this dilemma.

Quoting all4hurricanes:
This weather blog has jumped the gun on many tropical storms this year I don't think the NHC will upgrade it anytime soon




i disagree it has TS winds and a closed low the nhc is this waiting for the right time
Quoting Drakoen:
I'm arrogant? LOL. I need to go back to lurking.
I never said you needed to go back to lurking.

But yes, saying I am undoubtedly wrong is arrogant. Especially in the absence of any data to confirm your conclusion. You are assuming something, not observing it. Big difference.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Has there been any good jokes about the next storm"s name?
I HOphelia the NHC declares Ninety-Eight-L Soon.
Quoting markot:
what are you talking about threat to bermuda, it is going west into the carribean...


Most experts are indicating is that it is going to be somewhere in the NE Caribbean and then turn north just like the other storms. That would put Bermuda in a potential path. The GFDL is an outlier but it has been an outlier for many of the storms this year.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That was made at 4:15 PM EDT.


The same time as the Windsat pass, was intended to show the lack of convection where the WindSat indicated a circulation.
Quoting JLPR2:


Ok. We cant be 100% sure if it is closed or open since this is just a partial pass. So we are going by opinion. yours is that it is open and Drak's and mine that it is closed.
I hope Oceanscat gives us a nice view of the system to solve this dilemma.

My opinion is that there is doubt about it being closed and that at the time of the latest ASCAT pass, there was not enough evidence to call it closed.

At the moment, or by the next OSCAT pass, it may very well be closed, as it is very close on the last ASCAT pass. To reiterate, however, I don't believe there is enough evidence to call it closed based of that last ASCAT pass.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I never said you needed to go back to lurking.

But yes, saying I am undoubtedly wrong is arrogant. Especially in the absence of any data to confirm your conclusion. You are assuming something, not observing.


Drakeon is a smart but also really cocky. thats why I like him.
with her distance from land NHC has plenty of time to upgrade
Well, it doesn't matter. If its open, its open. If its closed, its closed.

The world may never know..
594. JLPR2
Quoting TomTaylor:
I never said you needed to go back to lurking.

But yes, saying I am undoubtedly wrong is arrogant. Especially in the absence of any data to confirm your conclusion. You are assuming something, not observing.



You took it out of context, he said that for him 98L undoubtedly has a closed LLC and that's his opinion.

Just like you seem pretty sold on the idea that it is open.

Be careful, calling him arrogant could be viewed by Admins as a personal attack.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well, it doesn't matter. If its open, its open. If its closed, its closed.

The world may never know..
If only we had the funds for more satellites...
Quoting TomTaylor:
If only we had the funds for more satellites...


QuikScat.
Quoting TomTaylor:
If only we had the funds for more satellites...


The return of QuikScat would be great.
598. JLPR2
Quoting TomTaylor:
My opinion is that there is doubt about it being closed and that at the time of the latest ASCAT pass, there was not enough evidence to call it closed.

At the moment, or by the next OSCAT pass, it may very well be closed, as it is very close on the last ASCAT pass. To reiterate, however, I don't believe there is enough evidence to call it closed based of that last ASCAT pass.


Neither enough evidence to call it open since we are missing a little more than half of the system.

Now look what the crappy ASCAT started. XD LOL!
Quoting JLPR2:



You took it out of context, he said that for him it 98L undoubtedly has a closed LLC and that's his opinion.

Just like you seem pretty sold on the idea that it is open.

Be careful, calling him arrogant could be viewed by Admins as a personal attack.
Well if I am saying there isn't enough evidence to call it closed and he comes along saying it's undoubtedly closed, how is that any different than saying he undoubtedly (in his opinion) believes I am wrong?

Regardless, it came off as arrogant even if that wasn't his intent.

Anyway, enough bickering, I guess I'll get out of here and go do some hw or something.
If a renumber were to occur, anticipate one in 15-20 minutes.

I'll honestly be surprised if we don't get Ophelia at 11p.m.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If a renumber were to occur, anticipate one in 15-20 minutes.

I'll honestly be surprised if we don't get Ophelia at 11p.m.


Prepare to be surprised.

Or not.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well if I am saying there isn't enough evidence to call it closed and he comes along saying it's undoubtedly closed, how is that any different than saying he undoubtedly (in his opinion) believes I am wrong?

Regardless, it came off as arrogant even if that wasn't his intent.

Anyway, enough bickering, I guess I'll get out of here and go do some hw or something.


Didn't you just get here?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey.... do u have internet back at ur house yet?


Yes....

and then last Friday I lost it (DSL that is) for 24 hours
...am a couple pages behind now and reading up to current.
CAPE CANAVERAL, Florida (AP) — NASA scientists are doing their best to tell us where a plummeting six-ton satellite will fall later this week. It's just that if they're off a little bit, it could mean the difference between hitting Florida or landing on New York. Or, say, Iran or India.

Pinpointing where and when hurtling space debris will strike is an imprecise science. For now, scientists predict the earliest it will hit is Thursday U.S. time, the latest Saturday. The strike zone covers most of Earth.
Quoting jrweatherman:


Drakeon is a smart but also really cocky. thats why I like him.
is that a joke?


I don't think he is really cocky, but I do occasionally get that vibe coming off his posts. No offense to him, I have plenty of flaws my self, just a casual observation.

Quoting JLPR2:


Neither enough evidence to call it open since we are missing a little more than half of the system.

Now look what the crappy ASCAT started. XD LOL!
Well I guess you're right. If we are allowed to change stances, I believe there is not enough evidence to determine either way.
The spaghetti plots look more realistic now:



Quoting Tazmanian:
if you stan under a tree you be safe from lighting


Nooo...I do not recommend that.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nooo...I do not recommend that.




i no i this wanted too see what evere one would say am this like mass with you all some time lol
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If a renumber were to occur, anticipate one in 15-20 minutes.

I'll honestly be surprised if we don't get Ophelia at 11p.m.
Hard to say, although since it's currently at 70%, I don't think they will jump to TD status.

Latest ASCAT has winds from NE to SW, which means it's either open or a very elongated, weakly closed circulation. Not enough evidence to tell which it is at the moment.
611. JLPR2
The blog had a little burst of activity. This place has been a ghost town the last several days, comparing it to the usual activity.

Also, 98L still has some work to do, needs deep convection, shallow convection just doesn't do it.
First of all, this Elenin crap is just that....crap.

Second, if there is a closed surface low, it is quite elongated. Notice the "well defined" part of the NHC discussion.
Quoting Tazmanian:
if you stan under a tree you be safe from lighting
Wrong, that is the worse thing you can do other than be on or in the water.
614. JLPR2
Well I'll be on and off for awhile. Got to do some homework and an essay. :\
Quoting TomTaylor:

is that a joke?


I don't think he is really cocky, but I do occasionally get that vibe coming off his posts. No offense to him, I have plenty of flaws my self, just a casual observation.
speaking of flaws, there's a nice typo.
Quoting Drakoen:
I'm arrogant? LOL. I need to go back to lurking.


Don't let anyone run you off Drak! We need ya man!
Quoting JLPR2:
Well I'll be on and off for awhile. Got to do some homework and an essay. :\
Just finished mine.
Quoting TomTaylor:
is that a joke?


I don't think he is really cocky, but I do occasionally get that vibe coming off his posts. No offense to him, I have plenty of flaws my self, just a casual observation.

Well I guess you're right. If we are allowed to change stances, I believe there is not enough evidence to determine either way.


Ignore jrweatherman. He's a kid. I've been following Drake on the site since he was about 14 years old. He knew more about weather back then, than most of the knuckleheads we see on TV. Yes, sometimes he comes across in a way that sends a "vibe", he doesn't mean anything by it. He is very smart and a good contributor to this blog.
Quoting mossyhead:
Wrong, that is the worse thing you can do other than be on or in the water.
Maybe we can throw some trolls in a lake during a lightning storm?
Hey Beel-- good to see you. I hate to see so many longtime members go to "lurk mode". Somehow it how it seems wrong. Watching 98L closely, I have plans and do not want to see it heading into the GOM.
Quoting beell:


I have for the most part. From a purely personal/selfish/over-inflated-sense-of-my-own-val ue standpoint, posting here is no longer a good use of my time. But I could not resist a post for the left-coasters!

; - )
Quoting beell:


I have for the most part. From a purely personal/selfish/over-inflated-sense-of-my-own-val ue standpoint, posting here is no longer a good use of my time. But I could not resist a post for the left-coasters!

; - )
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey.... do u have internet back at ur house yet?


Yes....

and then last Friday I lost it (DSL that is) for 24 hours
...am a couple pages behind now and reading up to current.

-------------
....oh yes, now I remember I was on at the pharmacy when it was out this last time...

surprisingly it was resstored after 5pm Saturday
Quoting mossyhead:
CAPE CANAVERAL, Florida (AP) — NASA scientists are doing their best to tell us where a plummeting six-ton satellite will fall later this week. It's just that if they're off a little bit, it could mean the difference between hitting Florida or landing on New York. Or, say, Iran or India.

Pinpointing where and when hurtling space debris will strike is an imprecise science. For now, scientists predict the earliest it will hit is Thursday U.S. time, the latest Saturday. The strike zone covers most of Earth.


I hope this isn't too dumb a question, but why wouldn't it burn up coming into our atmosphere?
The convective bursts in 98L in the feeder bands are looking rather deep and impressive.

Quoting JLPR2:
The blog had a little burst of activity. This place has been a ghost town the last several days, comparing it to the usual activity.

Also, 98L still has some work to do, needs deep convection, shallow convection just doesn't do it.
Yeah, that's what a debate will do.

And if the storm had good surface convergence around the center we would see cool cloud tops over the center, however, these intense thunderstorms are spread out and removed from the center as a result of the monsoonal/ITCZ nature of the storm making it hard for air to pile up in one location.
98L center has relocated and tightened slightly south and west , and this is a TS if I ever saw one, jmo
Well, they are in concensus....
They agree that they don't agree....

NHC NOT READY TO UPGRADE YET...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
Quoting Chicklit:


I hope this isn't too dumb a question, but why wouldn't it burn up coming into our atmosphere?


Most of it will but some of it will survive, similar to when the old space station came down. Since the satellite is much smaller, less should survive.
now the models show recurvuture. wow lol this season has been all about recurvutures except for irene :P ophelia wont get too strong if shear remains this high
Quoting Chicklit:


I hope this isn't too dumb a question, but why wouldn't it burn up coming into our atmosphere?



one would think so but i have seen mentioned a piece as big as a bus
Latest CIMSS low level convergence map still shows a very elongated convergence zone. Although, the convergence has significantly improved over the last day if you click back through the previous images.

Quoting Chicklit:


I hope this isn't too dumb a question, but why wouldn't it burn up coming into our atmosphere?


There are many pieces that are too dense to completely burn up. I heard, have not verified, that the largest piece expected to hit the earth will be about 300 lbs.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
NHC NOT READY TO UPGRADE YET...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.


That's from the 8pm EDT TWO.
Looks like no renumber again.

Would be nice to see some consistency on the NHC's part.
I could stay up all night and watch 98L but I won't.
It sure does look like it means business though.
manana
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like no renumber again.

Would be nice to see some consistency on the NHC's part.


LOL.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Well, they are in concensus....
They agree that they don't agree....

THEY'RE FIGHTINGduh duh duh. but seriously this has happened before a million billion times.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Well, they are in concensus....
They agree that they don't agree....



the great majority agree on a NE pass of PR
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Maybe we can throw some trolls in a lake during a lightning storm?




oh how fun oh sould we start with 1st
gfs 18z shows what the 12z showed a hurricane hitting florida this time stronger. 982mb but in reality thats about 20mb less so a cat2/3. the carribean and eastern gulf can spin up majors so florida better watch out...
'tap tap tap on the glass interruption'
I don't have time to read back..




What the heck is going on..


Invest 98 has 40 mph winds, has a spin and not even a TD much less a TS???


Please someone explain and I will come back to see what you have said.




Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks like no renumber again.

Would be nice to see some consistency on the NHC's part.
edit, nevermind.
Anybody think Five? Huh? Huh?
Quoting seflagamma:
'tap tap tap on the glass interruption'



What the heck is going on..


Invest 98 is 40 mph winds, has a spin and not even a TD much less a TS???


Please someone explain and I will come back to see what you have said.




A partial ASCAT pass revealed NE to SW winds associated with 98L. Since this was only a partial pass, the circulation may have been closed at the time, however, there was no conclusive evidence to say that it was in fact closed at the time of the pass. There were no westerly winds on the pass.

The reason for the strong winds is because of the intense thunderstorm activity around the storm.
Happy?

AL, 16, 2011092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 175, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
We got the renumber... Ophelia.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Anybody think Five? Huh? Huh?
five what?
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA HAS FORMED
Quoting Neapolitan:
Happy?

AL, 16, 2011092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 175, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,


I can sleep tight now.
Quoting TomTaylor:
A partial ASCAT pass revealed NE to SW winds associated with 98L. Since this was only a partial pass, the circulation may have been closed at the time, however, there was no conclusive evidence to say that it was in fact closed. There were no westerly winds on the pass.

The reason for the strong winds is because of the intense thunderstorm activity around the storm.


Thank you, Tom, for answering my question...
I have not been around a lot but I figured this invest would have been a TD by now if not a TS..

Appreciate your taking the time to answer my question.

Gams
Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 16, 2011092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 175, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
Damn it. I take back what I said, LOL.
For those keeping up at home.

That's 15-3-2.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Happy?

AL, 16, 2011092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 175, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
Well there it is lol

15-3-2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Damn it. I take back what I said, LOL.
WE GOT OPHELIA, WU.
well i missed her by about 2 hrs
Quoting seflagamma:


Thank you, Tom, for answering my question...
I have not been around a lot but I figured this invest would have been a TD by now if not a TS..

Appreciate your taking the time to answer my question.

Gams
Well, it's a tropical storm now. Tropical Storm Ophelia.
Tropical Storm Ophelia.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA HAS FORMED


HUH???? What.. where did TS Ophelia form??

is it 98?


661. SLU
HI OPHELIA.

Just to add my piece on the closed circulation discussion a while ago ...

The circulation was always closed. The only issue today was that it did not have a well defined center which is different from not having a closed circulation. That was the only reason why it wasn't renumbered since morning.
Quoting seflagamma:


HUH???? What.. where did TS Ophelia form??

is it 98?


Yes mam
Now the discussion can turn to NHC track.
Quoting seflagamma:


HUH???? What.. where did TS Ophelia form??

is it 98?




ATCF had a renumber gam, we've got Ophelia out of 98L.
AL, 16, 2011092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 175, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
Thank you all it was confusing at first because I had not kept up...


OK, we have TS Ophelia...

is it suppose to curve out to sea like all the ones before her this year???


Quoting seflagamma:
Thank you all it was confusing at first because I had not kept up...


OK, we have TS Ophelia...

is it suppose to curve out to sea like all the ones before her this year???




Probably not.
*sigh* I was hoping she would wither up & die…
Quoting seflagamma:


HUH???? What.. where did TS Ophelia form??

is it 98?


Quoting SLU:
HI OPHELIA.

Just to add my piece on the closed circulation discussion a while ago ...

The circulation was always closed. The only issue today was that it did not have a well defined center which is different from not having a closed circulation. That was the only reason why it wasn't renumbered since morning.
That is true. I wish I would have seen this ASCAT pass earlier




Definitely closed, just poorly defined and very broad.
Quoting TomTaylor:
A partial ASCAT pass revealed NE to SW winds associated with 98L. Since this was only a partial pass, the circulation may have been closed at the time, however, there was no conclusive evidence to say that it was in fact closed at the time of the pass. There were no westerly winds on the pass.

The reason for the strong winds is because of the intense thunderstorm activity around the storm.


You are correct Tom
Quoting seflagamma:
Thank you all it was confusing at first because I had not kept up...


OK, we have TS Ophelia...

is it suppose to curve out to sea like all the ones before her this year???


Yes, looks like it will follow a Katia type of track.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Yes, looks like it will follow a Katia type of track.


No-It-Does-Not

Quoting CybrTeddy:
For those keeping up at home.

That's 15-3-2.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Damn it. I take back what I said, LOL.
curios to see the intensity forecasty im thinking moderate to strong ts. 60mph peak im thinkin.
673. SLU
Quoting TomTaylor:
That is true. I wish I would have seen this ASCAT pass earlier




Definitely closed, just poorly defined and very broad.


That pass was from last night. 98L's center became even more broad this morning and started developing multiple centers. Now that a well defined center has formed it is now a tropical cyclone.
Thank you all, at least we have a few days to watch....

I did not expect so much change so quickly!!!

I do appreciate you answering my questions.

I will be back tomorrow.

Thank you.

Well then, I guess 98L has been or has very nearly been closed all along. I admit I was wrong earlier about it not being closed, although I really wish I would have seen or been shown some earlier ASCAT passes. I haven't been checking them so I wasn't aware the thing was already closed.

Guess I lost that little debate, but it's all good.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Yes, looks like it will follow a Katia type of track.




no it wont
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Probably not.
Dang bro, 2 days in a row with you getting post 666, LOL.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Now the discussion can turn to NHC track.
It's definitely going to be an interesting track. With both the GFS and ECMWF forecasting a track north of the Greater Antilles, I'm more inclined to believe that their cone will mimic what the aforementioned global models foresee.
IMO NHC track will have it passing just north of the island of Guadeloupe as a 50 mph Tropical Storm.
I don't want to pheel Ophelia!
16-15-3-2
Just to be clear, my basis for a closed circulation was not soley on the ASCAT pass, but a combination of both the Windsat and the ASCAT pass. My point was that it is not possible to see say that a closed circulation is not there because you don't see (insert wind direction here) on the partial pass.
Yay, Ophelia is here. Now I can fall asleep.
15-3-2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dang bro, 2 days in a row with you getting post 666, LOL.

It's definitely going to be an interesting track. With both the GFS and ECMWF forecasting a track north of the Greater Antilles, I'm more inclined to believe that their cone will mimic what the aforementioned global models foresee.


lol.
Typhoon Roke
686. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:


ATCF had a renumber gam, we've got Ophelia out of 98L.
AL, 16, 2011092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 175, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,


I'm gone for a few minutes and this happens? Dang! XD
Ophelia will be a fish storm.
Good Night All.

I will be back at exactly 7:21:51 tomorrow morning.

7:21 and 51 seconds.
Quoting help4u:
FISH IT IS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




POOF IT IS
Quoting wxtropics1998:
Ophelia will be a fish storm.


and I bet you thought Maria was a fish storm too
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dang bro, 2 days in a row with you getting post 666, LOL.

It's definitely going to be an interesting track. With both the GFS and ECMWF forecasting a track north of the Greater Antilles, I'm more inclined to believe that their cone will mimic what the aforementioned global models foresee.


Select LGEM from here and you get their last preliminary track.
I see we have Ophelia, a Caribbean runner looks like, not tracking extremely west, but she will definetley go into the caribbean.
Quoting will40:



one would think so but i have seen mentioned a piece as big as a bus


Here is the site that has the countdown to reentry.

It's not too precise at the moment. the 23rd, "give or take a day". They will have it narrowed down, two hours before reentry .. . and yes, there is a 300lb chunk that will make it the ground . . . that could ruin one's day.

Link
Quoting Hurricanes101:


and I bet you thought Maria was a fish storm too




Maria was not a fish lol
Quoting Drakoen:
Just to be clear, my basis for a closed circulation was not soley on the ASCAT pass, but a combination of both the Windsat and the ASCAT pass. My point was that it is not possible to see say that a closed circulation is not there because you don't see on the partial pass.
Well my basis was just off the latest ASCAT pass and the one before it.

When I said you didn't have any evidence, you should've showed me, the debate would have ended right there lol

But when you said it was undoubtedly closed and didn't bring anything else to the table, I was left with the one pass and had to argue that there's no way you could call it undoubtedly closed.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


and I bet you thought Maria was a fish storm too


They're all fish storms until they hit land!
ophelias track will be very tricky. this isnt a katia where its atomactically out to sea more of after passing the islands does it go into the heart of the carribean, out to sea from a trough OR the trough misses her and further west like irene.. its early. same with maria ALTHOUGH the GFS has been showing maria recurve from day 1..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good Night All.

I will be back at exactly 7:21:51 tomorrow morning.

Seven-Twenty-one And Fifty-One Seconds/strong>d .
Why exactly then?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good Night All.

I will be back at exactly 7:21:51 tomorrow morning.

7:21 and 51 seconds.
night

I'd wake up to check, but that means I would have to get up before 5. Not gonna happen
Quoting Tazmanian:




POOF IT IS




sorry i could not help it LOL



when help4you said FISH IT IS



and when i said POOF IT IS i was thinking the word went too geter well
Roke may cause trouble to already crippled Japan.
Wow,, a 40mph invest !!Stronger winds than a TD !! Nice for 98L....
.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Select LGEM from here and you get their last preliminary track.
Looks like a good track. The intensity also seems plausible.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Wow,, a 40mph invest !!Stronger winds than a TD !! Nice for 98L....





98L is a TS now
710. JLPR2
00z SHIPS is more optimistic and says Ophelia could be a 60mph TS in 48hrs, then slowly weaken trough 120hrs.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Wow,, a 40mph invest !!Stronger winds than a TD !! Nice for 98L....
It's TS Ophelia.
Navy classified 98L as TD
713. skook
Tampa is getting slammed with this evening thunderstorm, quite a bit of lightning to my west tonight, some of them were close enough to shake my apartment.


Odd to have a Name, without an accompanying TropicalStorm.
NHC hadn't and hasn't. ATCF hadn't and hasn't. So who declared a TropicalStorm?
Quoting aspectre:
Odd to have a Name, without an accompanying TropicalStorm. NHC hasn't. ATCF hasn't. So who declared a TropicalStorm?


they did, take a look at past posts
716. JLPR2
Quoting aspectre:
Odd to have a Name, without an accompanying TropicalStorm. NHC hasn't. ATCF hasn't. So who declared a TropicalStorm?


ATCF Did. XD

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al982011_al162011.ren

AL, 16, 2011092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 175, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
Quoting aspectre:
Odd to have a Name, without an accompanying TropicalStorm. NHC hasn't. ATCF hasn't. So who declared a TropicalStorm?
invest_al162011.invest
719. JLPR2
Waiting for the 11pm advisory. That is one discussion I want to see. XD

The Band, Ophelia
www.youtube.com
From "The Last Waltz"
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
Navy classified 98L as TD



...that's depressing.
I think with this cyclone it's not so much the track as it is the adversity she'll face no matter where the big O decides to go.
Ophelia looking very good tonight

000
WTNT21 KNHC 210242
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 40.1W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 40.1W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.4N 42.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.7N 44.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.9N 47.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.2N 50.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 40.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
OPHELIA IS THERE YOU GUYS!
:)
Quoting aspectre:
Odd to have a Name, without an accompanying TropicalStorm. NHC hasn't. ATCF hasn't. So who declared a TropicalStorm?
ATCF has it

AL, 16, 2011092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 175, 100, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
729. JLPR2
Well, time to check the batteries, canned food and other supplies... again. XD
Look at the data: LO and not TS
Again I ask, who called a TropicalStorm.
we are getting nailed here in Wesley Chapel Florida. Seems like its been storming for hours....Well guess it has, started about 745pm ugh
Quoting aspectre:
Look at the data: LO and not TS
Again I ask, who called a TropicalStorm.


They named it in ATCF, so by default it would be at a minimum a TS.
Quoting aspectre:
Look at the data: LO and not TS
Again I ask, who called a TropicalStorm.
NHC
Quoting aspectre:
Look at the data: LO and not TS
Again I ask, who called a TropicalStorm.




the NHC now
00Z NAM 500MB TROF/RIDGE CONUS @84HR

no advisory yet.. kinda weird.
Quoting aspectre:
Look at the data: LO and not TS
Again I ask, who called a TropicalStorm.


NHC

about as official as it gets
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
no advisory yet.. kinda weird.


advisory is up
Hopefully it stays weak for the next 4 to 5 days so it can cross the islands with no noise as it heads north and out to sea
000
WTNT31 KNHC 210250
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 40.1W
ABOUT 1585 MI...2555 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


742. JLPR2
Meanwhile ex-99L craves some attention.
The NHC really only had to change the name on the track graphic to Ophelia; she's nearly identical to Irene, Katia and Maria, for now at least.
Quoting skook:
Tampa is getting slammed with this evening thunderstorm, quite a bit of lightning to my west tonight, some of them were close enough to shake my apartment.




Youre not joking. Felt and looked like a TS with the addition of lightning. Palm trees were blowing sideways.
looks like maybe friday before recon can fly her
000
WTNT41 KNHC 210300
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

THE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS FINALLY COALESCED ABOUT A
SINGLE CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN ASCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 00Z
SHOWED AN AREA OF 35 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
OPHELIA IS STILL A LITTLE RAGGED...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS LOCATED
WELL NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE STILL CONSOLIDATING CENTER. WHILE
OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE
SOMEWHAT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/8...DUE TO THE
RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND A WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 12.2N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.4N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.7N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 12.9N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 13.2N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 15.0N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 19.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Quoting DJMedik91:


Youre not joking. Felt and looked like a TS with the addition of lightning. Palm trees were blowing sideways.


Yes Im in Wesley Chapel is is started here about 745 and is still going strong. NASTYYYY
Ch 6 here screwed up, has their banner Hurricane Ophelia..way to go Tom Sorrel..
Eastern Pacific hasn't had a named storm since Greg dissipated on August 21... will probably get TD#9/Hilary sometime tomorrow.
Roke has been a wobblin storm..closing in on Japan on MIMIC.



You can see what is moving into the GOM......need to watch this stuff!
Quoting dearmas:


Yes Im in Wesley Chapel is is started here about 745 and is still going strong. NASTYYYY


Definitely. Came out of nowhere too!
If I lived in PR I would whip up an emergency pot of Menudo, and eat it even before Ophelia approached.
Quoting DJMedik91:


Definitely. Came out of nowhere too!



It is pouring on me in the West Chase area!
Quoting WxLogic:
000
WTNT21 KNHC 210242
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 40.1W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 40.1W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.4N 42.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.7N 44.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.9N 47.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.2N 50.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 40.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Thet are forecasting the same track and as weak as Maria when it aproaches the Leewards and PR.
Roke

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/ thousands-evacuate-as-powerful-typhoon-bears-down- on-central-japan-2-missing-in-floods/2011/09/20/gI QALIkThK_story.html

The storm was expected to make landfall along Japan%u2019s southeast coast around midday and then cut a path northeast through Tokyo and into the northeastern Tohoku region, which was devastated by the March 11 tsunami and earthquake.

Also in the path of the storm is the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant, which started spewing radiation after it was sent into meltdown by the tsunami.

Takeo Iwamoto, spokesman for Tokyo Electric Power Co., the utility that operates the plant, said the cooling system for the reactors, crucial to keeping them under control, will not be endangered by the typhoon.

He said some construction work around the plant was canceled and utmost efforts were under way to prevent leaks of radioactive water and other material from the typhoon.


Moves north she is in higher shear. She goes south its in lower shear.
OUCH!!!!


Statement on the Season, the bright side of CC, and our role as the leader of the world in these times

All things considered, it has been a rather fortunate year for those of us in the good old USofA. Irene could have been much worse and Lee wasn't all bad drought wise.

Our main problems this year have been La Nina induced not CC induced IMHO.

The Arctic melt may actually be opening up one of the last great frontiers on Earth besides Antarctica and the ocean floor. And it is magically opening up to us at a time when new challenges and opportunities for jobs creation are needed. Russia and China and others are preparing to develop these resources and we MUST respond with our best. If that means the "Big Companies" and upstarts, then so be it.

America also stands ready to help those in undeveloped, failed, and 3rd world countries around the globe such as Somalia, Pakistan and Haiti who are each suffering from protracted natural disasters.

But BEWARE, if you bite Uncle's hand and attempt ANY acts of terrorism against us expect our wrath, irregardless of who is president. Cooperate with us and together we CAN solve the world's problems!

The GW problem should be solvable through upcoming breakthroughs in the fields of organic and biochemistry.Then we can confidently resume our current lifestyles of consumption which fuels the capitalistic dream worldwide. Consumerism, growth, jobs, wealth accumulation and scientific advances that lead us to the Moon and beyond where lie the vast raw materials that will lead us into the new age of terraforming on a galactic scale.
I think the model forecast is being too aggressive with North West turn and not aggressive enough with intensity forecast, but that is purely my 'gut' feel from looking at the satellite loop and from where it is located.

This is a Islands/ Caribbean storm, is my gut feel and maybe stronger than the NHC forecasts.
Looks like Puerto Rico Cant catch a break this year.
764. JLPR2
Convergence is expanding. Seems like Ophelia could look pretty or at least decent after D-max.
I think the model forecast is being too aggressive with North West turn and not aggressive enough with intensity forecast, but that is purely my 'gut' feel from looking at the satellite loop and from where it is located.

This is a Islands/ Caribbean storm, is my gut feel and maybe stronger than the NHC forecasts.
Looks like EPAC will finally put out a storm.
Hilary about to form...
768. 7544
hi all imo this one is going to be a low rider into the caribiean she will go
So we have Ophelia. NHC not very bullish on it.
"Cooperate with us and together we CAN solve the world's problems!"


??????????

Since WWI and WWII, the most of the world allied countries has cooperated, copied our American dream model and Where does the world stands today??? AND Where do we stand looking to solve the world problems???



http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/anim16ir.ht ml  what is that swirling around the great lakes ??
...yeah at the moment I have the feeling Ophelia won't be exactly like Maria. 2 storms can't do the same things! I think Ophelia will be a little south and stronger while crossing the Northern Leewards. I don't know why but a 75mph category 1 wouldn't surprise me.. at least at the moment and considering shear forecast could be less defavorable.
POSS.T.C.F.W.
16L/TS/O/CX
MARK
12.27N/40.23W
775. ackee
I would not be suprise if ophelia track thought the carrb think given her size will take her some time to fully organize going with a futher west and south track guess we see
Ironically, the NHC forecasted a 75MPH Maria just east of the Leewards, and this storm ended up being only a 40-45MPH sheared TS..............

Now with Ophelia, it could be the contrary!

We never know..
11:00PM Advisory
*Click on image to magnify (image can also be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
Quoting CaribBoy:
...yeah at the moment I have the feeling Ophelia won't be exactly like Maria. 2 storms can't do the same things! I think Ophelia will be a little south and stronger while crossing the Northern Leewards. I don't know why but a 75mph category 1 wouldn't surprise me.. at least at the moment and considering shear forecast could be less defavorable.


2004
Hurricane Frances
Hurricane Jeanne
?

No storm is exactly the same as another but they can be pretty damn similar.
697 TomTaylor "But when you said it was undoubtedly closed and didn't bring anything else to the table, I was left with the one [ASCAT] pass and had to argue that there's no way you could call it undoubtedly closed."


I'd always assumed LO implies a closed Low -- lower level inflow and upper level outflow -- which in turn implies some degree of spin.
And what prevented a LO from being declared a TropicalDepression was either too low of a max.sus.wind or a lack of a clear CenterOfCirculation or both.

And since preOphelia's max.sus.wind hadn't been too low for 24hours, finding a sustained CoC hadda have been the problem.
*Click on image to magnify (image can also be magnified in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
Quoting RussianWinter:


2004
Hurricane Frances
Hurricane Jeanne
?

No storm is exactly the same as another but they can be pretty damn similar.


yes more like jeanne!
Quoting TravisBickle:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/anim16ir.ht ml  what is that swirling around the great lakes ??
That will be the trough that turn Oph. It will be way stronger than the one that is hanging over the east coast, which will disapate.
Quoting FrankZapper:
If I lived in PR I would whip up an emergency pot of Menudo, and eat it even before Ophelia approached.


Oye Frank Ofelia esta lejos!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA HAS FORMED


RUH ROH!
Models still spread out...




Live Video streaming by Ustream

Over looking Enoshima Island, Near Tokyo, Japan.

MORE than a million Japanese have been warned to leave their homes, as a strong typhoon is forecast to land and make its way across Japan's largest island of Honshu today.

The Japan Meteorological Agency was calling for "the greatest possible vigilance" as Typhoon Roke, bringing strong winds and heavy rain, approached this morning.

As of 10am local time (11am AEST), the typhoon was located some 40 kilometres off the southern-most tip of the Kii Peninsula, Kyodo News reported.

The storm was heading northeast toward the Tokai region in central Japan at a speed of 35 kilometres per hour, packing winds of up to 216km/h.

It will likely reach Fukushima prefecture, which was severely hit by the March 11 earthquake, tsunami and ensuing nuclear disaster, about 9pm local time, according to the agency.

The city of Nagoya, a regional commercial hub located near the home of Toyota Motor, issued an evacuation advisory to some 1.09 million residents at one point yesterday because of worries that rivers might burst their banks.

The advisory was lifted from parts of the city, but landslide, flooding and tornado warnings affected more than a million people were still in place as night fell.
It look to me that this is the storm we where looking for , last good one was Georges 12 years ago!

I hope Not!

Quoting mossyhead:
That will be the trough that turn Oph. It will be way stronger than the one that is hanging over the east coast, which will disapate.
Oh thanks !
Quoting luigi18:


Oye Frank Ofelia esta lejos!


Mano, no se llama Frank, se llama Kerry...
Quoting sunlinepr:


Mano, no se llama Frank, se llama Kerry...


como sea !
Quoting sunlinepr:


No I don't believe in those models... If I did I would move to live there....
But I don't believe in a model that gives CEO bankers all the money, while giving the Avg. american a hard time to make a living.... with my feet on the ground - I think our superman years are getting to an end...

Anyhow, I respect your point of view....

And I share your outrage towards Wall St
Quoting JLPR2:
Meanwhile ex-99L craves some attention.
More rain for us
793. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
More rain for us


Yeah, keeping everything wet before Oheplia's visit. Some pretty serious floods could happen this weekend, early next week.
Keep an eye on how fast Ophelia is moving. Right now it is slow. Slow tracks allow weather patterns to change in front of it.
795. JLPR2
Not sure what to make of this:
This is a weather blog, so why are people talking about Communists and Muslims?
Quoting JLPR2:
Not sure what to make of this:
lol

Very broad and elongated, but closed. Not very well defined either.
Quoting TampaSpin:
OUCH!!!!




That will spin tampa!!


ouch is right
800. ryang
Quoting JLPR2:
Not sure what to make of this:


Further south?
Quoting luigi18:
It look to me that this is the storm we where looking for , last good one was Georges 12 years ago!

I hope Not!


Georges was 13 years ago. I think Georges made 8 landfalls.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


ouch is right


What model is this? GFS is also showing something in GOM in 10-11 days
Quoting petewxwatcher:


Georges was 13 years ago. I think Georges made 8 landfalls.
It took 17 days to hit the USA. Lets hope Ophelia is not a creeper!
Quoting TampaSpin:



It is pouring on me in the West Chase area!


I'm in Brandon. Well, kinda. Technically I'm in Tampa, but if I walk to the sidewalk I'm in Brandon. Lol

Definitely a nice storm though...
00z GFS shows her very weak then drops her at 216hrs
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


ouch is right
Im going to go out on a big limb here and say that could be Ophelia.
Quoting DJMedik91:


I'm in Brandon. Well, kinda. Technically I'm in Tampa, but if I walk to the sidewalk I'm in Brandon. Lol

Definitely a nice storm though...
There used to be a really good pizza place and Italian restaurant in Brandon.
Angelina's.
Is it still there.

Quoting songman77:


What model is this? GFS is also showing something in GOM in 10-11 days


GFS
picks her back up at 348 hrs off the coast of NC

a weird run indeed
Quoting scott39:
Im going to go out on a big limb here and say that could be Ophelia.


that would def be the roundabout route to florida for ophelia
Quoting will40:
00z GFS shows her very weak then drops her at 216hrs
I see her weak in the Eastern and central caribbean following the GFDL. The MJO will give her a shot in the arm in the Western Caribbean, and that may be what is showing up in Eastern GOM.
786. AussieStorm

Thanks for the link to live streaming in Japan at Ustream!
Quoting scott39:
I see her weak in the Eastern and central caribbean following the GFDL. The MJO will give her a shot in the arm in the Western Caribbean, and that may be what is showing up in Eastern GOM.


the GFS run i saw never had her in the GOM
Quoting will40:


the GFS run i saw never had her in the GOM
I know, sorry about the confusion. I was going off the other maps showing a TC in the GOM.
Quoting scott39:
I know, sorry about the confusion. I was going off the other maps showing a TC in the GOM.


ok not a prob scott
Looking back on the blog comments the NHC undoubtedly agreed with Drakoen about 98L/now Ophelia having a closed circulation.

That doesn't mean I don't like TomTaylor, he's a good poster too!
Quoting petewxwatcher:
Looking back on the blog comments the NHC undoubtedly agreed with Drakoen about 98L/now Ophelia having a closed circulation.

That doesn't mean I don't like TomTaylor, he's a good poster too!



she had a closed center for a long time the NHC was just waiting for the well defined center and deep convection
her center was elongated but was still closed
Since she was named i guess there will be another update at 2:00
821. JLPR2
Quoting will40:
Since she was named i guess there will be another update at 2:00


there are no watches or warning so next update should be at 5am
Quoting JLPR2:


there are no watches or warning so next update should be at 5am


ok i was thinking a named Storm would be every 3 hrs
I see shear ^ Looks like Maria 2.0
826. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Jeez, Ophelia's structure is just weird.
Quoting robert88:
I see shear ^ Looks like Maria 2.0


That's why models don't develop it or even vanish it
Quoting VirgilSolozzo:
There used to be a really good pizza place and Italian restaurant in Brandon.
Angelina's.
Is it still there.



I dunno. I grew up in Lutz. Went into the Army in 2001, and lived in DC after that. I just moved back here last year, and everything has changed.

If you say it's good, I'll hunt it down! :)
None of the models I have reviewed have it going into the GOM, but take it north of PR and towards Bahamas and presumably up the EC.
Quoting JLPR2:


Jeez, Ophelia's structure is just weird.


Usually trajectories have a tendency to adjust N.... So up to now looks like we are in a safe zone....
But we will know that on saturday....
Quoting FrankZapper:
None of the models I have reviewed have it going into the GOM, but take it north of PR and towards Bahamas and presumably up the EC.


What a strange season this has been...
833. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Usually trajectories have a tendency to adjust N.... So up to now looks like we are in a safe zone....
But we will know that on saturday....


Tell that to Earl. XD
But yeah, you're right, lets see what happens.
Quoting scott39:
I know, sorry about the confusion. I was going off the other maps showing a TC in the GOM.
You're probably talking about a different system that the ECMWF is showing, coming from the western Caribbean.
So, I see we have Ophelia, and not a surprise here the models are all over the place, and the NHC is conservative as usual, in terms of strengthening. We'll see I still believe this will become a Hurricane.
Quoting sunlinepr:


What a strange season this has been...
And I feel there will be some surprises in Oct, maybe another weak Irene type tract, but no majors.
Very weird season indeed. You could put a Katrina out there and it would be almost dead in less than a day. You know you have a strange and weird season in place when you have struggling storms in September.
Quoting FrankZapper:
And I feel there will be some surprises in Oct, maybe another weak Irene type tract, but no majors.
As far as majors go, I think we will see 2 more.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
As far as majors go, I think we will see 2 more.
But you mean 2 fish hopefully.
Quoting FrankZapper:
But you mean 2 fish hopefully.
Yes, I most certainly hope so, but if you think about it, Cape Verde Season is coming to an end soon, and by the time the MJO returns it may already be too late for a major Hurricane to form out there, and unfortunately we tend to see development closer to home in the months of Oct. and Nov. The Caribbean specifically the Western Caribbean has been noticeably quiet, and I would love for it to stay that way, but I fear it won't.
You can see why the NHC are not enthused with Ophelia. That monster trough is going to be pushing out 50kts of SW shear from the NW Caribbean. Lights out for her. The pattern looks like November in the Atlantic.
Typhoon Roke as it was about to make Landfall in Japan.
Ophelia?? What ever happened to the "P" storm?
Sorry, got confused, its late.. P comes after O... duhhh
Link to a webcam in Tokyo
Quoting IceCoast:
Typhoon Roke as it was about to make Landfall in Japan.
gee earthquakes then major typhoon, those people will be suffering
ninety nine is on my mind back from the dead
Good morning, all. Back into the low 90s today for us again.
I vote for Hilary to become a major hurricane
Quoting ktymisty:
Link to a webcam in Tokyo

One more webcam in Tokyo Link
Ophelia looks more and more like Maria :(
Quoting CaribBoy:
Ophelia looks more and more like Maria :(
lol I can't take the stress that that storm caused here again.
I hope we in the extrem N Antilles will get some decent rains from ophelia! And if she does like Maria, WE WONT GET ANYTHING! And that really sux for our plants..
Is it time to start FL casting yet?


hmm maybe a center is just forming


well am thinking of the big picture
865. BVI
Quoting CaribBoy:
I hope we in the extrem N Antilles will get some decent rains from ophelia! And if she does like Maria, WE WONT GET ANYTHING! And that really sux for our plants..

Where are you? We had a lot of rain from Maria in the Virgin Islands and have had a lot more this week. The soil is saturated. We don't need more right now
Quoting islander101010:
ninety nine is on my mind back from the dead



stop saying 99L is back from the dead i dont see 99L up any where you need too start calling it ex 99L
Quoting Autistic2:
Is it time to start FL casting yet?



whats not even go there plzs not at 4AM
aww Taz, too early to quote stuff like that!
Taz, I like your new avatar, that from this weekend?

My classroom is waiting, kids expect a teacher there before them for some reason. Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Taz, I like your new avatar, that from this weekend?

My classroom is waiting, kids expect a teacher there before them for some reason. Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday!



yes
Taz what do you make of ophilia's sat pic do you think the center is where the nhc says?
Good Morning All.
A webcam of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Generating Station overlooking the power plant in Fukushima, Japan Link
Quoting GTcooliebai:
So, I see we have Ophelia, and not a surprise here the models are all over the place, and the NHC is conservative as usual, in terms of strengthening. We'll see I still believe this will become a Hurricane.


I think it may as well. The irony is if it stays weaker now it will stay more south, which may allow it to dodge the shear and therefore have more of a shot at intensification down the road.
877. Marou
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
Taz what do you make of ophilia's sat pic do you think the center is where the nhc says?
hi, I am not Taz, but I thik that the center is around 13.1 N and 42.7 W... but I'm maybe wrong...
Quoting GTcooliebai:
So, I see we have Ophelia, and not a surprise here the models are all over the place, and the NHC is conservative as usual, in terms of strengthening. We'll see I still believe this will become a Hurricane.


Highly doubt that.

All of the models predict that there will a sharp increase in westerly wind shear as it approaches the islands. It would be better if it was coming from the east, the same direction is going. However, if it is coming from the west, imagine that you are in a car moving at 30-50 mph. Sticking your hand out the window is convection trying to form, and the wind is the wind shear. Now, try going against that...its DIFFICULT, isn't it?

Really is no doubt in my mind that Ophelia will stay a hurricane, at least until it is north of the Caribbean Islands.
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
Taz what do you make of ophilia's sat pic do you think the center is where the nhc says?



yes
Quoting Marou:
hi, I am not Taz, but I thik that the center is around 13.1 N and 42.7 W... but I'm maybe wrong...


hmm yes that almost sound correct looking at the visible
but the center seem to be exposed as well more west i guess just like maria
I guess that proves that we're still waiting for the proper lull.

Personally wouldn't be surprised if October's quiet. It may not be, but typically one of the three peak months are.

Another storm to remain at TS, maybe?

Hmm.


almost impossible to make the center here with no doubt this is old however not too much so i still think the nhc track is uncertain or with a question mark and the center is exposed but may try and cover soon
If this was say, the 1951 season or the 1971 season... how many of these tropical storms would have been named, do you think?

(Not to say they shouldn't be named - if they fit the proper criteria, they should - but just curious).
Quoting Cotillion:
If this was say, the 1951 season or the 1971 season... how many of these tropical storms would have been named, do you think?

(Not to say they shouldn't be named - if they fit the proper criteria, they should - but just curious).

Hey Cotillion - You think this Ophelia has a chance of affecting the Continental U.S.?
Quoting Cotillion:
If this was say, the 1951 season or the 1971 season... how many of these tropical storms would have been named, do you think?

(Not to say they shouldn't be named - if they fit the proper criteria, they should - but just curious).


These probably wouldn't be named:

- Cindy
- Franklin
- Gert
- Jose
Easy to see where the center is...Farther north and west than the NHC's 5AM coordinates.

Quoting cat5hurricane:

Hey Cotillion - You think this Ophelia has a chance of affecting the Continental U.S.?


I don't normally bother with forecasts (or for most people, it's called a guess) as enough people try and pitch in with that. Given the uncertainty, there's always a small outside chance of it clipping by something, particularly with Ophelia so far out in the Atlantic. Not something you'd bet on right now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


These probably wouldn't be named:

- Cindy
- Franklin
- Gert
- Jose


Okay. :) Any other suggestions from anyone?
889. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Easy to see where the center is...Farther north and west than the NHC's 5AM coordinates.



Even though it looks sheared, Ophelia now looks like a normal tropical storm.
890. JLPR2
Ex-99L just doesn't give up.
Quoting JLPR2:
Ex-99L just doesn't give up.


A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED...THIS LOW COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
For those with a frosty heart this morning (hope the video works and yes, it is weather related):

Link
Puerto Rico NWS Discussion

A RAPIDLY MOVING TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE WITH AXIS NOW JUST EAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER
TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF WIND SURGE TO ACCOMPANY/TRAIL THIS
WAVE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHEN IT ENTERS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SQUALLY WEATHER OVER
PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS AS THIS WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

BASED ON LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE CURRENT TRACK THE CENTER OF OPHELIA
IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
BULLETINS AND ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
IN MIAMI.
what a weird season.....
The blob over Western Africa, Pouch 32L, is forecast to develop (to varying degrees) by ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and HWRF. But, as always, we'll see:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
896. MTWX
Quoting Tazmanian:



stop saying 99L is back from the dead i dont see 99L up any where you need too start calling it ex 99L

Taz ex-99L looks halfway decent to me too. Take a look at it this morning! Link

Heading into the islands.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Easy to see where the center is...Farther north and west than the NHC's 5AM coordinates.



Good pic there. Should be a requirement for all storms to show their centers like that each day.

Might get boring in here though with an end to all position discussions.
The Big question,is she gonna be a fish storm?LOL
Opehlia... from the Greek meaning "help, aid"

Let's hope she helps someone who needs rain (like Texas).

Stay thirsty, my WU friends!
900. Jax82
Ophelia has a tough road ahead, she may not even make it, NHC seems to think she wont get that strong at all.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 12.7N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 13.0N 43.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 13.2N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 13.5N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 14.0N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.7N 57.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 18.0N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 20.0N 65.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
99L is back up on ATCF:

AL, 99, 2011092112, , BEST, 0, 178N, 606W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 130, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
morning everyone...99L lives i see....could anything come of the blob below cuba?? got some storms firing up....
Starting from scratch..

Good Morning...
flat line...paddles...flat line...paddles...Nurse, it lives! 99L is back from the dead!
99L won't give up.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Starting from scratch..



Given 850MB VORT and SAT, the initialization appears to be a bit too far N.

Quoting Tazmanian:



stop saying 99L is back from the dead i dont see 99L up any where you need too start calling it ex 99L


Taz, 99 is back buddy
All that VOODOO in the Caribbean, has created a zombie invest.
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Ophelia, while I think will stay out to sea, I can see how it does come back west to the US coast next week.
This is the REAL Ophelia!
Click on the link to see the REAL Ophelia. I couldn't figure out how to embed the video on here....?? It's by The Band!!!

Link