WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Typhoon Roke batters Japan; Ophelia forms in the Central Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:28 PM GMT on September 21, 2011

Typhoon Roke hit Japan near Hamamatsu at 14:00 JST Wednesday as a Category 1 typhoon with 80 mph winds. Roke brought sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 83 mph to the Tokyo airport at 5:25 pm local time, and a wind gust of 89 mph was reported at Shizuhama Airbase. Roke has dumped heavy rains of 155 mm (6.20") at Hamamatsu and 125 mm (4.86") at Tokyo. Damage due to flooding from Roke's heavy rains will likely be the main problem from Roke, as the soils over much of Japan are saturated from the passage of Tropical Storm Talas during the first week of September. Talas was a very slow moving storm, and brought extreme rainfall amounts of over six feet to some portions of Japan. Roke brought winds less than 25 mph to the damaged Fukishima-Dai-Iche nuclear plant northeast of Tokyo, and heavy rains of 189 mm (7.50") to Hirono, located 8 miles south of the plant.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Roke as it made landfall at 14:00 JST on September 21, 2011. The typhoon brought a large area of rainfall of 50 mm/hr (2"/hr) to Japan. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Roke taken at 3:55 UTC on Wednesday, September 21, 2011. At the time, Roke was a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Ophelia forms in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Ophelia formed last night in the Central Atlantic from the tropical wave (Invest 98L) we've been tracking this week. Satellite imagery shows that Ophelia is suffering the classic symptoms of high wind shear, with the low level center of circulation exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation. An analysis of wind shear from the University of Wisconsin CIMMS group shows a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due to strong upper level west-southwesterly winds affecting Ophelia. We don't have any ship, buoy, or hurricane hunter observations of Ophelia's winds, but an ASCAT pass from 7:27 pm EDT last night found top winds of 45 mph in the northeast quadrant of the storm. Ophelia will be passing south of buoy 41041 late tonight. Water vapor satellite images show dry air to the the west of Ophelia, and the strong upper level west-southwesterly winds bringing high wind shear to the storm are also injecting dry air into the storm's core, interfering with development.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Ophelia showing the low-level center exposed to view, with all the storm's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the northeast side.

Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.

Ophelia is the 15th named storm this year, putting 2011 in 10th place for the most number of named storms in a year. Ophelia's formation date of September 21 puts 2011 in 4th place for earliest date of arrival of the season's 15th storm. Only 2005, 1936, and 1933 had an earlier 15th storm. With only three of this year's fifteen storms reaching hurricane strength, though, this year has been near average for destructive potential. Atlantic hurricane records go back to 1851.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yes ASCAT! Yes!



It caught the WHOLE storm!
Alleluiaaa.Alleluiaaaa.Alleluiaaaaaa,Heeeey. "Darn, that's the end."
shows ophelia and possible philipe
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
That's from this morning...isn't it? -.-
8:01a.m EDT.
Quoting basti11:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
To be fair, At the time the whole blog, most noticeably Dr. Masters himself, was strongly urging evacuations. Some blog members assisted others by offering them a seat in their car. That storm brought out the best in the blog, and the worst as well as we had phantom folks pretending they were trapped in the French Quarter.
.
Were it left to STormtop NOLA would have evacuated 18 times that year.


But those transcripts will never be found. Only the one post that "proves" that he's right.

BTW, basti11 has been replaced with empty space, so my post has been edited to match...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
8:01a.m EDT.
Wah, Wah.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
8:01a.m EDT.


Darnnnnn it.
Ophelia's COC - I thought it had moved more N

Quoting donna1960ruled:


Top Forecaster of the Week Awards

1. Avila
2. Pasch
3. Bevin


My vote is #4 - Basti11
T.C.F.W.
16L/TS/O/CX
MARK
14.85N/43.27W
Quoting scooster67:
Yes. She's going to go N of 15n. Not going to run the gauntlet. :)


haha. she's not there yet.
512. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Yes ASCAT! Yes!



It caught the WHOLE storm! Or...at least, most of it!


expired
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 SEP 2011 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 13:40:58 N Lon : 45:27:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 998.7mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 2.8

Quoting MelbourneTom:
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 SEP 2011 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 13:40:58 N Lon : 45:27:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 998.7mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.8 2.8 2.8



Those are too low to begin with...Its alteady a 50 kt. storm :P
Quoting hcubed:


My vote is #4 - Basti11


lol. What's the award for 4th place? Brain coral on a plaque?lol
516. JLPR2
ÀSCAT just caught most of Ophelia again. Whooo! XD

Quoting WeatherWx:


just put them on ignore, use what the site gives you.
Better words of wisdom have never been spoken.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Those are too low to begin with...Its alteady a 50 kt. storm :P


Link
Notice the Coc of 99L leaving convection behind...

521. viman
Lightning, thunder and rain here on ST. Thomas... Here comes 99L..
Here's the setup for next week - weak or strong, Ophelia ain't gettin to the east coast...


Link
Quoting sunlinepr:
Quite holding out on the Links to all the pretty maps. You come up with some good ones. :)
Quoting Chucktown:
Here's the setup for next week - weak or strong, Ophelia ain't gettin to the east coast...


Link


Are you a met.?
T.C.F.W.
16L/TS/O/CX
MARK CENTRE CORRECTION
14.25N/44.87W
Quoting JLPR2:
ÀSCAT just caught most of Ophelia again. Whooo! XD

yay!

Closed, but elongated to the SW due to the lack of thunderstorm activity there and the fact that this the positioning of the subtropical ridge naturally favors this being one of the weakest quadrants.
Seems like models have shifted a tad south. Anyone see that? (GDFL, UKMET, AND NGFDL hit the Leewards)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Are you a met.?


Local TV met in Charleston, SC.
Ophelia making its NE turn and a new guest in the C Atl...

Quoting TomTaylor:
yay!

Closed, but elongated to the SW due to the lack of thunderstorm activity there and the fact that this the positioning of the subtropical ridge naturally favors this being one of the weakest quadrants.


What about the monsoon trough?
Such a sour b(l)og! Reminds me of that gooseberry pie.
Quoting Chicklit:


haha. she's not there yet.

Not yet :)

I hope it finds a way to do it. They need some rain in the Cayman's and Jamaica. PR needs the break too.
Quoting Chucktown:
Here's the setup for next week - weak or strong, Ophelia ain't gettin to the east coast...


Link

Her only hope was to ride the monsoonal trough into the Caribbean.
Quoting Chucktown:


Local TV met in Charleston, SC.


What do you think about the potential of a Caribbean storm come the last week of September into the first week of October?
You know Ophelia commits suicide by drowning in Shakespeare's Hamlet.
Official story is she fell from a willow branch.

THE LATEST
*Click on images to magnify
Does anyone use Tinypic and know if something is wrong with the website right now? I am unable to upload any photos. Thanks!


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What about the monsoon trough?
what about it?

What I meant by the SW quadrant usually being weaker due to the positioning of the subtropical ridge is the fact that the ridge is usually to the NE of storms in the Atlantic. This means the NE quadrant will usually have the strongest pressure gradient force. The stronger PGF, the stronger the winds are in this quadrant, meaning there is greater surface convergence, more vorticity, and usually more thunderstorm activity occurring in that quadrant.

Keep in mind that is a general rule that only applies if the storm is to the SW of the ridge.
Quoting scooster67:
Quite holding out on the Links to all the pretty maps. You come up with some good ones. :)


Thanks - it feels good to add animation, b/w and color to the blog
Quoting AllStar17:
THE LATEST
*Click on images to magnify
Does anyone use Tinypic and know if something is wrong with the website right now? I am unable to upload any photos. Thanks!




Works fine for me:



^ waves from Hurricane Irene the day before the storm came in.
Off to read more Life of Pi.
Great book about survival on the ocean with a twist.
Ophelia is moving <------ atm.
If you live in PUERTO RICO you have to remember this date. At this time 13 years ago. Category 3 Hurricane Georges was making a direct hit on the island. 115 MPH winds with 130 MPH + gusts just remembering this date
Quoting TomTaylor:
what about it?

What I meant by the SW quadrant usually being weaker due to the positioning of the subtropical ridge is the fact that the ridge is usually to the NE of storms in the Atlantic. This means the NE quadrant will usually have the strongest pressure gradient force. The stronger PGF, the stronger the winds are in this quadrant, meaning there is greater surface convergence, more vorticity, and usually more thunderstorm activity occurring in that quadrant.

Keep in mind that is a general rule that only applies if the storm is to the SW of the ridge.


Isn't Ophelia still in close proximity to the monsoon trough? Wouldn't that inhibit development on the SWward side of the system somewhat?

Quoting stormpetrol:
Ophelia is moving <------ atm.

true. i was hoping it would make it all the way to tx without affecting caymans like ivan.
over and out.
549. JLPR2
That band of convection from 99L is bringing some decent weather to the Virgin Islands.

Seems like it's PR's turn in a few hours.
Date : 22 SEP 2011 Time : 004500 UTC
Weakening flag is on:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What do you think about the potential of a Caribbean storm come the last week of September into the first week of October?


Limited model support right now, although the Euro has been hinting at something around 216 and last nights GFS showed a system in the eastern Gulf around 312. If anything is going to happen in the next few weeks, thats where it will be.
Quoting MelbourneTom:
Date : 22 SEP 2011 Time : 004500 UTC
Weakening flag is on:



Its always on, which is why I don't rely on CIMSS products like that, that much ;)
Quoting JLPR2:
That band of convection from 99L is bringing some decent weather to the Virgin Islands.

Seems like it's PR's turn in a few hours.


However, we, in the Extrem Northern Leewards didn't get anything lol.
Quoting Chicklit:

true. i was hoping it would make it all the way to tx without affecting caymans like ivan.


Thumbs Up on that , my sis is visiting from TX, the drought there is terrible! Of course they don't need anything destructive!
Quoting gugi182:
If you live in PUERTO RICO you have to remember this date. At this time 13 years ago. Category 3 Hurricane Georges was making a direct hit on the island. 115 MPH winds with 130 MPH + gusts just remembering this date


I tied up my back wooden terrace roof with steel cables, ropes and all kinds of cables I could find.... It did survived the wind...
While Many other around flied away....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Works fine for me:



^ waves from Hurricane Irene the day before the storm came in.


How many photos do you have?
Quoting JLPR2:
That band of convection from 99L is bringing some decent weather to the Virgin Islands.

Seems like it's PR's turn in a few hours.
going to be another bomb droping night again here huh like the other night around one am that was some serious thunder
Quoting AllStar17:


How many photos do you have?


of the waves?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


of the waves?


In your account
Quoting sunlinepr:


I tied up my back wooden terrace roof with steel cables, ropes and all kinds of cables I could find.... It did survived the wind...
While Many other around flied away....


Sunline asi mismo!
Quoting AllStar17:


In your file.


Oh, I don't have one.
Quoting luigi18:


Sunline asi mismo!
Magnifico!!
I could be wrong but based on the tightening of the model cluster, I think Ophelia is out to sea...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its always on, which is why I don't rely on CIMSS products like that, that much ;)


Really:

Link
Quoting mrpuertorico:
going to be another bomb droping night again here huh like the other night around one am that was some serious thunder
And what does Mrs. PuertoRico have to say about that?
Quoting hurricanejunky:
I could be wrong but based on the tightening of the model cluster, I think Ophelia is out to sea...



Lol nah. Threat to Mexico maybe, haha.
99L is so small XD.
Good night.
571. JLPR2
42mph from the ENE
58mph gust
Pressure 1009mb



Buoy 41041 is now starting to feel Ophelia.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Well said, way to bring value to the blog.


LOL
Quoting MelbourneTom:


Really:

Link


Not always on, but with the systems this season, its been ON a lot when the systems are strengthening.

Probably because of the poor structure most TC's have taken this season.

P.S. I'm tired
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Explain?
Necessito mas luigi18 !!
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.
Quoting kipperedherring:
Magnifico!!


Roofline...
Quoting WeatherWx:
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.


Lets just say it involved women, men, and FEET.
if a storm move in the same direction as the shear is doesnt effect it. example wilma 2005 made landfall in the yucatan as a 4 then weakened to a 2 moving ne towards sw florida. to her west is 70 knots of shear from the SOUTH WEST. she is MOVING NORTHEAST meaning wind shear wont be effecting her therefore thats why she strengthened to a 3 at landfall :P
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Very nice Rad... 99L hit the island Only with its Coc and without any thunderstorms...
Quoting WeatherWx:
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.
Oh, he's still here, they say.
Can Hurricanes have last names?

Ophelia currently moving due west... maybe she won't make the WNW turn and move over the antilles..
Good Night Blog.
Quoting WeatherWx:
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.


Do a GOOGLE on him. He still posts at a different site.
Quoting scooster67:
Can Hurricanes have last names?

Christ!
Quoting WeatherWx:
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.


If you Google his username, you will find him on his own site......don't know what happened here....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good Night Blog.
Good Night.
Looking healthy.... Gusts are almost hurricane strenght... (70mph)

Quoting geepy86:

Working at payless.

LOL
ophelias center is starting to get tucked in under the convection. why? because now shear is 15 knots down from 20. if shear gets to 10 knots a run at hurricane stregnth is possible before ophelia meets the upper trough drapped across the greater antiliess and northern carribean :P
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
if a storm move in the same direction as the shear is doesnt effect it. example wilma 2005 made landfall in the yucatan as a 4 then weakened to a 2 moving ne towards sw florida. to her west is 70 knots of shear from the SOUTH WEST. she is MOVING NORTHEAST meaning wind shear wont be effecting her therefore thats why she strengthened to a 3 at landfall :P


good point buddy!
Ophelia is suposed to start moving NW when she reaches 50W...
If not, we wil start seeing trajectory corrections....
Quoting geepy86:

Working at payless.


where is that?
Quoting WeatherWx:
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.
My spidey senses say he's here amongst us, hiding in plain sight. Likely using some user name that has nothing at all to do with weather or acronyms for weather. To keep a foot in the door, so to speak.
.
I also have to report that there's a strong high off to my right. The wind is blowing...from the EAST!!
11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 21
Location: 13.7°N 46.2°W
Max sustained: 60 mph
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
599. JLPR2
I'm feeling 99L.



Decent, considering how it looks on satellite.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Oh, he's still here, they say.




no hes not he been BAN from the blogs

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 SEP 2011 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 14:17:59 N Lon : 97:20:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 999.9mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.6 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -4.6C Cloud Region Temp : -62.2C

Scene Type : EYE
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm feeling 99L.



Decent, considering how it looks on satellite.


That frontal band just passed Carolina...
Here.... Fast moving Cumulus clouds N to S and lighting....

Quoting CosmicEvents:
My spidey senses say he's here amongst us, hiding in plain sight. Likely using some user name that has nothing at all to do with weather or acronyms for weather. To keep a foot in the door, so to speak.
.
I also have to report that there's a strong high off to my right. The wind is blowing...from the EAST!!
He lost his temper at some trollsand he was banned.
Hilary is going under RI it seems
Quoting WeatherWx:
what ever happened to StormW? Dont see him on anymore.


He was run off like everyone else. Got mad, said some stuff and got banned
Too bad, night IR views do not show the COC... This was during the day....

Quoting sunlinepr:
Looking healthy.... Gusts are almost hurricane strenght... (70mph)



se me parece a georges a su edad
pretty interesting discussion at 11:00.NHC not even hunting at a N turn at end of forecast they are saying she should turn NW after 3 days. I guess they are waiting until next advisory to bring her around to the N heading.
610. DFWjc
Quoting bambamwx:


He was run off like everyone else. Got mad, said some stuff and got banned


Probably got sick and tired of the juvenile stuff that goes on this blog on a daily basis...IMHO
Quoting DFWjc:


Probably got sick and tired of the juvenile stuff that goes on this blog on a daily basis...IMHO


sad but true
2011 is only the second season ever recorded to have 10 or more TCs that maxed out as tropical storms. More interestingly, if Ophelia fails to make it to hurricane strength, 2011 will have already tied 2005 for the number of tropical storms that didn't become hurricanes with 12. 2005 didn't reach that number until December 30 with TS Zeta.
614. viman
Heavy rain, serious cloud to ground lightning and thunder here in St. Thomas, airport gusting to 41mph
Quoting CaribBoy:
Ophelia currently moving due west... maybe she won't make the WNW turn and move over the antilles..
Dream on dude. She is destined too follow Katia as i have been saying for days.
Quoting bambamwx:


He was run off like everyone else. Got mad, said some stuff and got banned


Hope Levi32 doesn't get run off! He's a bright blogger!
Quoting Tazmanian:




no hes not he been BAN from the blogs
He just has had a makeover and blends in. I have my suspicions who he is. Follow the quality posts. He will become apparent.
reason why 2011 didnt have monsters was our vertical instability was very low. my final numbers for 2011 are 20 7 and 4. in june they were 16 8 and 4. in april 18 9 5 and in december 15 9 and 4
Quoting DFWjc:


Probably got sick and tired of the juvenile stuff that goes on this blog on a daily basis...IMHO
You are correct on what happened.
620. JLPR2
I'm just getting a vibe from this one, being getting it since early today.
Thunder begin to roll at SAN JUAN thanks to 99L
Quoting viman:
Heavy rain, serious cloud to ground lightning and thunder here in St. Thomas, airport gusting to 41mph


I wish I was there.
623. viman
St. Thomas airport now gusting to 46mph
624. JLPR2
Quoting viman:
St. Thomas airport now gusting to 46mph


Impressive.
Quoting JLPR2:
I'm just getting a vibe from this one, being getting it since early today.
I dont see what could stop it from getting stronger. Is a low on the map or the nhc still doesnt have it on the map?
626. viman
Quoting viman:
St. Thomas airport now gusting to 46mph

Not bad for the little bugger, 99L kicking up a little dust...

Quoting TomTaylor:
Although it's not too hard to get within the ballpark or even beat the model consensus/NHC.
Although I've done better than the NHC in terms of intensity more than once (the most recent example being Lee), I would advise against entertaining statements such as these on a consistent basis.

In other words, don't become too arrogant.
Quoting WeatherWx:


lol. What's the award for 4th place? Brain coral on a plaque?lol


You know what? For someone who likes to call people "trolls", you need to step back and look in the mirror. I have seen several comments from you today that can classify you as a troll.

Consistently posting comments that make fun of a poster or their comments are not wanted.
629. JLPR2
Quoting Gearsts:
I dont see what could stop it from getting stronger. Is a low on the map or the nhc still doesnt have it on the map?


Still nothing on the map.
630. viman
Hold on SJU, headed your way...
631. viman
99L over Vieques now, heading westward...
633. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherWx:


probably will struggle with shear, but they will probably still find a way to blame it on AGW right DJMedik?


In the short term that isn't a problem.
Quoting Neapolitan:
2011 is only the second season ever recorded to have 10 or more TCs that maxed out as tropical storms. More interestingly, if Ophelia fails to make it to hurricane strength, 2011 will have already tied 2005 for the number of tropical storms that didn't become hurricanes with 12. 2005 didn't reach that number until December 30 with TS Zeta.



we may be seeing some upgrades when post season starts has they did with cindy wish got upgrade too 70mph even no that still a TS
Quoting Tazmanian:



we may be seeing some upgrades when post season starts has they did with cindy wish got upgrade too 70mph even no that still a TS


quite possible, have to wait and see
636. JLPR2
Up to 46mph from the ENE
Gusts to 58mph
Pressure down to 1008mb

Ophelia's center is getting closer, passing to the south.

Quoting DJMedik91:


You know what? For someone who likes to call people "trolls", you need to step back and look in the mirror. I have seen several comments from you today that can classify you as a troll.

Consistently posting comments that make fun of a poster or their comments are not wanted.
Who! Strike 1 WeatherWx!
Quoting Gearsts:
I dont see what could stop it from getting stronger. Is a low on the map or the nhc still doesnt have it on the map?
I don't remember seeing a low there yet.
Quoting Gearsts:
I dont see what could stop it from getting stronger. Is a low on the map or the nhc still doesnt have it on the map?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
500
Agree

Quoting FrankZapper:
Who! Strike 1.WeatherWx


I like to call people trolls?lol When was the last time I did that? btw, Basti11 was attacking many bloggers today and I was defending them. Why not work on not confusing me with other bloggers who are obsessed with the T word, thanks.
Quoting WeatherWx:




I like to call people trolls?lol When was the last time I did that? btw, Basti11 was attacking many bloggers today and I was defending them. Why not work on not confusing me with other bloggers thanks.
You need to address your post to DJMedik91. thanks, FZ
Here we ******* go. Jesus Christ.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
500

??
Quoting KoritheMan:
Here we ******* go. Jesus Christ.




noted am waiting for the 00z too lode some lol
testing
Quoting WeatherWx:



I like to call people trolls?lol When was the last time I did that? btw, Basti11 was attacking many bloggers today and I was defending them. Why not work on not confusing me with other bloggers who are obsessed with the T word, thanks.


Nobody is saying that. But when you post comments to instigate a conflict, you give the impression of a troll.
i wounder if WU will evere fix this
Quoting DJMedik91:


And just another unclassy comment to classify you as a troll. Do you feel better about yourself now?
Come On Man!
656. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
i wounder if WU will evere fix this


I think it's too late. WU, well to be more exact, this blog fell apart already.

I stay on topic in almost every single one of my posts and it isn't hard to do. Why can't everyone else do it too?
Quoting DJMedik91:


Nobody is saying that. But when you post comments to instigate a conflict, you give the impression of a troll.


I've admired your contributions on WU btw, even though you think Im worthy of being a troll. Lets just drop it and pardon me if I offended you. With that good night;)
Quoting JLPR2:


I think it's too late. WU, well to be more exact, this blog fell apart already.

I stay on topic in almost every single one of my posts and it isn't hard to do. Why can't everyone else do it too?




not sure but if they want too find out the hard way then so be it
Quoting Tazmanian:
i wounder if WU will evere fix this


Hey Taz, that rivere rafting.... What difficulty was that?... many rapids? Never done so....

only kayaks on the area....
Quoting WeatherWx:


You can thank a particular blogger for pulling up a buried post from long ago today. I was speaking tropics most of this eve(go check my posts)


I am not about to wade through countless posts, so I will just take your word for it.

That being said, just because he brought up something from the past, does not mean you had to advance it. We have private messaging for this sort of crap.

Also, I am not singling you out to blame.
Quoting JLPR2:


I think it's too late. WU, well to be more exact, this blog fell apart already.

I stay on topic in almost every single one of my posts and it isn't hard to do. Why can't everyone else do it too?


Because instead of actually using logic by abiding by the rules, we need to get all pissy and utilize emotion instead. We ARE after all, the most logical species on the planet.

Oh wait. LOL
Quoting sunlinepr:


Hey Taz, that rivere rafting.... What difficulty was that?... many rapids? Never done so....



that was about class 1 or low end class 2 rapids there where point on the river that where you can get out of the raft and go swimming if you wanted too
Quoting Tazmanian:





can you take this out of the mine blog your going too end up geting ban from here if you dont stop with this
Taz, you always seem to rise above the controversy. A true diplomat you are!
Quoting Tazmanian:



that was about class 1 or low end class 2 rapids there where point on the river that where you can get out of the raft and go swimming if you wanted too


Looks like that was an enjoying moment with the family....
Here I go bodyboarding, snorkling or SCUBA.... But would be nice to do rafting...
Quoting sunlinepr:


Looks like that was an enjoying moment with the family....
Here I go bodyboarding, snorkling or SCUBA.... But would be nice to do rafting...




LOL thats not my family hop am not being rude by saying that this some good friends i have
673. JLPR2
Here it comes.
Tazz i have been here longer than even you so i know what i can say or not say
Quoting WeatherWx:


just put them on ignore, use what the site gives you.
Here is a piece of your own advice. Try it. :)
Another rainy night thanks to 99L.
Quoting Tazmanian:




LOL thats not my family hop am not being rude by saying that this some good friends i have


Anyhow, looks like a nice experience to have.... Just have to plan my next vacation in Conus....
Quoting luigi18:
Thunder begin to roll at SAN JUAN thanks to 99L

True i live in San juan
Hey Taz!

Can I borrow your Poof machine? Had to send mine in for repairs. :)
Quoting sunlinepr:


Anyhow, looks like a nice experience to have.... Just have to plan my next vacation in Conus....




ok
Quoting scooster67:
Hey Taz!

Can I borrow your Poof machine? Had to send mine in for repairs. :)




sure you may rent it for $500 a day
Quoting JLPR2:


I think it's too late. WU, well to be more exact, this blog fell apart already.

I stay on topic in almost every single one of my posts and it isn't hard to do. Why can't everyone else do it too?
it is too late with all the bannings as of late we have now reached the point where there is more trolls and people trying to get around bans that it really is just a big circus now be glad when season ends and we can await the start of next season
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it is too late with all the bannings as of late we have now reached the point where there is more trolls and people trying to get around bans that it really is just a big circus now be glad when season ends and we can await the start of next season


That's right...there are seasons to come, all will be ok :))
Quoting Tazmanian:





your going too end up ban from here by the end of the night i been reporting your commets no need too keep going on about this and your last commet got reported has well so i would stop if i where you


Taz, why report me? I dont think I have said anything wrong at all. I have lurked this blog for several years and have seen some members attacked for their views.

I dont think anything I have ever said is worth being reported. But if you feel that way then report me. I've tried to explain some type of continuity in the blog, and if I am wrong then ban me.
687. JLPR2
Jeez, the lightning is getting so frequent it looks like a bunch of paparazzi. XD
Quoting DJMedik91:


Taz, why report me? I dont think I have said anything wrong at all. I have lurked this blog for several years and have seen some members attacked for their views.

I dont think anything I have ever said is worth being reported. But if you feel that way then report me. I've tried to explain some type of continuity in the blog, and if I am wrong then ban me.
he reports everybody. admin doesent give a crap who he reports
689. DFWjc
Quoting mossyhead:
You are correct on what happened.


I know I am, you should of seen the gang up on Basti today...it's almost the pot calling the kettle.. why people gotta hate...
good night
Quoting FrankZapper:
Yea! When Fldewey was banned I couldn't get out of bed for 3 days. Dewey reincarnate yourself!
iam sure he has along with all the others but now they come just to destroy maybe bring it down so that no one gets to enjoy it if they can kinda like MAD you know

Mutual
Assured
Destruction
692. DFWjc
Quoting Tazmanian:
good night


Night Taz..
Weather blog, people, weather blog. I want info on TS Ophelia not a troll contest. Back to lurking before I get flamed.

PS - Windy, rainy and lighting here in Fajardo thanks to 99L.
Quoting Wariac:
Weather blog, people, weather blog. I want info on TS Ophelia not a troll contest. Back to lurking before I get flamed.

PS - Windy, rainy and lighting here in Fajardo thanks to 99L.


Can I stay at your house for a night to experience this fun weather? :)
Circulation center of tropical perturbation moving over Puerto Rico now - heavy rain and lightening being reported in many areas - fast moving but very interesting.

Link
Quoting NoLa86:
he reports everybody. admin doesent give a crap who he reports
God no, he IS Tight!
good night blog gotta work in the am
Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez, the lightning is getting so frequent it looks like a bunch of paparazzi. XD


I'm jealous lol!!!!!!!!!!!! However on sat there is nothing impressive. Just little cells.
699. DFWjc
Quoting Wariac:
Weather blog, people, weather blog. I want info on TS Ophelia not a troll contest. Back to lurking before I get flamed.

PS - Windy, rainy and lighting here in Fajardo thanks to 99L.


Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Can I stay at your house for a night to experience this fun weather? :)


99L is coming ashore on the NE coast of PR tonight.
701. DFWjc
Quoting FrankZapper:
God no, he IS Tight!


Agreed...
Ok... had to run to close the windows... Water pouring, lighting and thunder.... 25-30 mph winds....

703. JLPR2
Quoting CaribBoy:


I'm jealous lol!!!!!!!!!!!! However on sat there nothing impressive. Just little cells.


Yeah, satellite isnt showing much but on radar we can see there are some strong cells in there. The strongest convection passed a mile or two to my south. Wheew... I want my power on thank you very much. XD
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it is too late with all the bannings as of late we have now reached the point where there is more trolls and people trying to get around bans that it really is just a big circus now be glad when season ends and we can await the start of next season
A certain Metallica song just pop in my head.
---THE LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN VIRGIN
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED TO THIS LOW FEATURE GENERATED GUSTY WINDS
OF BETWEEN 35 TO 45 MPH.
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, satellite isnt showing much but on radar we can see there are some strong cells in there, the strongest convection passed a mile or two to my south. Wheew... I want my power on thank you very much. XD


You look excited about the weather! Good ^^ So enjoy the lightning show.. but hopefully power won't get down!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Isn't Ophelia still in close proximity to the monsoon trough? Wouldn't that inhibit development on the SWward side of the system somewhat?

Oh that's what you meant. I thought you meant the monsoon trough would strengthen the SW side for some reason.

Back to your point, yea having the monsoon trough/ITCZ out to the SW of the storm certainly doesn't help. Here's the ECMWF 12z surface wind initialization from the Wundermap. (Open image in a new tab/window to see the full size)




Shows quite nicely how the monsoon trough/ITCZ has several vorticity maximums and the convergence and vorticity there are greatly contributing to the elongated nature of our Ophelia.
Well, good night WU... we'll see how Ophelia is doing tomorow.. (0Z GFS and NOGAPS are slightly south)
SAN JUAN - AT 1220 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING WEST BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. STRONG
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Can I stay at your house for a night to experience this fun weather? :)


Sure. Next time the "fun weather" comes my way you are invited :)
Quoting CaribBoy:


You look excited about the weather! Good ^^ So enjoy the lightning show.. but hopefully power won't get down!


Just to have some fun... Do you think I should put my Tormenteras under this lighting???... 12:39 AM....

Here... do you copy???
Quoting DFWjc:


Forecast for Ophelia
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that Ophelia will experience moderate to high wind shear of 10 - 25 knots over the next five days, and will move into a region with drier air. The combination of shear and dry air should keep Ophelia from strengthening, and could dissipate the storm, as predicted by the ECMWF and HWRF models. The Northern Lesser Antilles could see some wind gusts of 30 - 40 mph and heavy rain squalls from Ophelia on Saturday and Sunday, but right now it looks unlikely that the islands would see sustained tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph, since they are likely to be on Ophelia's weaker (dry) side. At longer ranges, Bermuda will have to keep an eye on Ophelia, since a large cut-off low pressure system over the Eastern U.S. should turn Ophelia to the northwest and then north early next week. Ophelia may eventually be a threat to Canada, but it is too early to assess the odds of this happening.


Thank you for the info
a lots of lighting san juan metro area wow!
Quoting WeatherWx:


I've admired your contributions on WU btw, even though you think Im worthy of being a troll. Lets just drop it and pardon me if I offended you. With that good night;)


Well, my contributions to WU aren't strong, but I'm happy to move on. And no you didn't offend me. It takes a lot more to do that. :)
Goodnight people. Enjoy the blog.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Just to have some fun... Do you think I should put my Tormenteras under this lighting???... 12:39 AM....

Here... do you copy???


if you got rolling shutters like me no problem!
Quoting Wariac:


Sure. Next time the "fun weather" comes my way you are invited :)


Sweet. I'll bring the booze, or whatever tickles your fancy.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Just to have some fun... Do you think I should put my Tormenteras under this lighting???... 12:39 AM....

Here... do you copy???


Yes you should close your windows and stay safe inside. Do not use the telephone (even mobiles), and avoid using water when the lightnings are close.
Lotta lightning in the basin..


Loving the Easterly flow here. Moisture coming in, low clouds racing, little breeze...hoping for a shower.
Got the feeling (Funk Rock)



Quoting sunlinepr:
Highways....





looks like a big CB cloud over San Juan. High cloud tops
Quoting luigi18:


if you got rolling shutters like me no problem!


My neighbor had rolling shutters during Georges... they rolled all the way two blocks away... ;-)

Well, nice rain for sleeping... Enjoy
Models are doing a little better with 98L than they had with similar storms this season. HWFR, UKMET & GFS doing okay. Average Error in nm.
Model Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr
DSHP 3.0 88.4 160.9 175.2 160.8
EGRR 34.9 48.4 - - -
GFDI 3.4 119.2 296.3 419.8 -
GFDL 13.9 94.6 250.6 395.6 -
HWRF 6.1 75.2 63.3 26.3 -
LBAR 3.0 104.1 238.1 363.3 380.7
LGEM 3.0 88.4 160.9 175.2 160.8
AEMN 41.5 75.9 88.6 104.0 -
NGPS 64.2 221.8 231.0 149.7 -
TS.Ophelia's_12amGMT_ATCF : Starting 21Sept_12amGMT and ending 22Sept_12amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 22Sept_12amGMT,
the island blob at 17.171n61.802w-ANU is the endpoint of the 21Sept_6pmGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the sea-to-island blob at 17.570n63.099w-EUX is the same for the 21Sept_12pmGMT.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 15.7mph(25.2k/h) on a heading of 274.3degrees(W)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passing 3.5miles(5.6kilometres) north of St.Lucia ~2days14hours from now

Copy&paste 12.5n39.8w-12.8n41.3w, 12.8n41.3w-13.2n42.8w, 12.8n41.3w-17.570n63.099w, eux, 13.2n42.8w-13.5n44.0w, 13.2n42.8w-17.171n61.802w, anu, 13.5n44.0w-13.6n45.4w, 13.5n44.0w-14.161n60.945w, uvf into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the branching straightline projections and other info.
Quoting NoLa86:
he reports everybody. admin doesent give a crap who he reports


Thanks. Thought it was ridiculous myself.
728. JLPR2
If the center were under the convection, I would dare say this one is almost a cat1, if not one already, but the LLC is pretty displaced from the whites, so, no. XD

729. JLPR2
Thunder is making sleeping difficult. :\

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1065 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Looking like the caribbean disturbance is being dropped again by the ECMWF. If these models keep pushing it back, by the time something forms hurricane season will be over...
Edit that it just started showing a 1008 mb low. Grain of salt again, or the real thing?
Anybody minding the store?
TS. Ophelia should be upgraded to 65 / 70mph at the next advisory, winds at buoy 41041 show 1min winds of 54knots (62mph) and highest gust at 68knots (78mph).

Quoting FFtrombi:
TS. Ophelia should be upgraded to 65 / 70mph at the next advisory, winds at buoy 41041 show 1min winds of 54knots (62mph) and highest gust at 68knots (78mph).


According to ATCF, you may be right.
It shows that as of 06 UTC, it has winds of 55 kts (65 mph).
AL, 16, 2011092206, , BEST, 0, 133N, 465W, 55, 994, TS,
13.2n42.8w, 13.5n44.0w, 13.6n45.4w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Ophelia's_6amGMT_ATCF
12.9n42.8w, 13.0n44.0w, 13.2n45.3w, 13.3n46.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 21Sept_6amGMT and ending 22Sept_6amGMT

The 4 eastern line-segments represent TropicalStormOphelia's path,
the westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 22Sept_6amGMT,
the sea-to-island dumbbell at 14.161n60.945w-UVF is the endpoint of the straightline projection
connected to its nearest airport for the 22Sept_12amGMT*mapping,
and the island blob at 17.171n61.802w-ANU is the same for the 21Sept_6pmGMT straightline projection on that same previous*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Ophelia's travel-speed was 13.5mph(21.7k/h) on a heading of 275degrees(W)
TS.Ophelia was headed toward passage over MarquisBay,St.Lucia ~2days22hours from now

Copy&paste 17.171n61.802w-anu, 14.161n60.945w-uvf, 12.8n41.3w-12.9n42.8w, 12.9n42.8w-13.0n44.0w, 13.0n44.0w-13.2n45.3w, 13.2n45.3w-13.3n46.5w, uvf, 13.2n45.3w-14.034n60.892w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping for 22Sept_12amGMT on this same page above.

* The alterations of the endpoints of a TropicalCyclone's previous paths also change its previous travel-speeds&heading, and the endpoints of its previous straightline projections...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Morning everybody.

I see Ophelia bids to be a replay of 1/2 our storms since Emily.... there must be a groove in the ATL now that these lows r just rolling down.... lol



Looks like another soaking for PR...

Pouch 32L--the healthy looking mess rolling off of West Africa right now--is hanging tough so far, one of the reasons that most of the major models are predicting some level of development over the next few days. Ophelia is, of course, the storm on the left side of the image. It's interesting to note that the African wave train is definitely slowing as it makes its way into the station; the lower density and coverage of the wispy cirrus clouds reaching towards Africa from the Indian Ocean (bottom right) is as sure a sign as any that it's close to drying up for the year:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
I'm praying for my Mum and Dad at the moment they are on the liner Celebrity Millenium, departed Cabo San Lucas 6pm Wed 21/9 heading for Acapulco! Hope the Captain has an eye out for Hilary!!!
little spin still with ex 99 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product =N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes if it can make it by hispanola it could be a threat
Good morning everyone. What is that off the west coast of Florida ?
742. MahFL
Quoting hurricanejunky:
I could be wrong but based on the tightening of the model cluster, I think Ophelia is out to sea...



She's always been out to see, FISH %^^&&*((
Good morning, all! Ophelia reminds me of so many storms this year.
Quoting MahFL:


She's always been out to see, FISH %^^&&*((
tough to get one all the way west this yr going to have to back door the conus the pattern seems to be set in stone.
Sorry if this is a 'noobish' question - I'm not a meteorologist, just enjoy learning about storms - but what is the probability for another major storm developing this year? It's getting close to the time of year that the seasonal monsoons in Africa start drying up, and from what I understand those weather fronts are what moves off the coast and eventually turns into a TC. I understand that nothing is certain when it comes to weather, but from what I've read here on the WU it appears that this year's season is in a wind down mode.
Well a little closer to home, an area of low pressure is forming on the old frontal boundry in the NE GOM... It is looking like a heavy rain event for northern Fl and Georgia, IMO.

wow the gods were angry last night in PR very loud very bright very nasty lightning
Quoting mrpuertorico:
wow the gods were angry last night in PR very loud very bright very nasty lightning
alot of energy associated with ex 99
Good Morning.
Everyone have a great Thursday!
Quoting Lonewulf:
Sorry if this is a 'noobish' question - I'm not a meteorologist, just enjoy learning about storms - but what is the probability for another major storm developing this year? It's getting close to the time of year that the seasonal monsoons in Africa start drying up, and from what I understand those weather fronts are what moves off the coast and eventually turns into a TC. I understand that nothing is certain when it comes to weather, but from what I've read here on the WU it appears that this year's season is in a wind down mode.


Well, one aspect of it may be.

The storms that trek across the Atlantic are becoming fewer and farther between. The so called "African wave train" is slowing down.

However, this is the time of year when typically we start to see increased activity closer to home in the Caribbean.

Home brew if you will.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning everyone. What is that off the west coast of Florida ?


Nice low forming there... gonna bring a lot of rain to N. FL it looks like.

It's drawing moisture across S. FL for sure. We've been getting rain on and off this morning with more coming as the day wears on.
Good morning.

Quoting mrpuertorico:
wow the gods were angry last night in PR very loud very bright very nasty lightning


That is right. Loud thunder in San Juan with plenty of lightening. That 99L low had a punch.
Post 745:

Nice wave coming off Africa..

Wonder if that could be a contender?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning.

Looks like her coc is slightly wsw of the heaviest ball of convection.
Quoting whepton3:
Post 745:

Nice wave coming off Africa..

Wonder if that could be a contender?

Also my comment #738, and yes. It's pouch P32L, and is developed to some degree by ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS. They all move it northwesterly for now, however, so it looks like--for now--even if it does develop, it'll stay way out over the open ocean.
761. rkay1
Are you sure?  I mean, its not like that's been happening all season --oh wait...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Also my comment #738, and yes. It's pouch P32L, and is developed to some degree by ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS. They all move it northwesterly for now, however, so it looks like--for now--even if it does develop, it'll stay way out over the open ocean.

KHOU in Houston making note of thunderstorms over NE Gulf....
763. rkay1
A few days ago models showed a huuuuuge system blastin' Tampa.  What happened?  Oh, nothing panned out?
Hilary's eye is partially visible this morning, but should become clear by this afternoon. It has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, with gusts up to 85 mph. At 11AM, it should be declared a hurricane, and I may be here ;)

Quoting Neapolitan:

Also my comment #738, and yes. It's pouch P32L, and is developed to some degree by ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS. They all move it northwesterly for now, however, so it looks like--for now--even if it does develop, it'll stay way out over the open ocean.


Seems to be a common theme this year.

Now that you mention the models, I do remember seeing it coming across and curving out on a few of the runs.

It is fairly robust stepping into the water.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Incredible visual! The power of these storms is awesome.
Blob in GOM...there has been some rotation for a day now, so is this going to develop or not?
Ophelia out to sea, african wave out to sea. What a disappointment. BORING BORING BORING!! I need a storm forming at 50W 12N lol!
Quoting CaribBoy:
Ophelia out to sea, african wave out to sea. What a disappointment. BORING BORING BORING!! I need a storm forming at 50W 12N lol!

ME TOO !!!! intensifying in category 5 and coming on SXM, with a 2 knots forward speed!
Time to raise the Hurricane shutters. Doing it a little early this year lol. Don't see to much happening for the remainder of the season.Thank you mother nature for being so thoughtful the past 3 years...
Quoting WarEagle8:
Blob in GOM...there has been some rotation for a day now, so is this going to develop or not?


This may be the beginning of the storm system that would impact the east coast that Rob over at Crown Weather discussed Monday of Tuesday.

Not sure if it has enough time to organize and spin up considering its proximity to land.

It is pulling moisture nicely across Florida though.
hilliary could be a headliner especially if she moves to the right
Quoting zicoille:

ME TOO !!!! intensifying in category 5 and coming on SXM, with a 2 knots forward speed!


yeah hopefully we will get some interesting stuff in October... something like 1999 JOSE! However cat 5 no..
2011 is a BUST (except IRENE and LEE)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hilary's eye is partially visible this morning, but should become clear by this afternoon. It has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, with gusts up to 85 mph. At 11AM, it should be declared a hurricane, and I may be here ;)



Wouldn't want to be on a cruise ship heading into that storm. Wonder how they can avoid it, eff they are going through the Panama Canal? Healthy looking development.
Hilary is now a hurricane according to ATCF:

EP, 09, 2011092212, , BEST, 0, 149N, 986W, 65, 994, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 160, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D
Quoting whepton3:


This may be the beginning of the storm system that would impact the east coast that Rob over at Crown Weather discussed Monday of Tuesday.

Not sure if it has enough time to organize and spin up considering its proximity to land.

It is pulling moisture nicely across Florida though.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/TampaSpin/show.h tml
Quoting whepton3:


Nice low forming there... gonna bring a lot of rain to N. FL it looks like.

It's drawing moisture across S. FL for sure. We've been getting rain on and off this morning with more coming as the day wears on.


GO LOW! Fill our aquifers that flow down thru S. FL!
Updated 12Z 850VORT MAX shows a slight in crease in low level spin across the SE GOM:



Buoy 42003 is showing some increase in WND speeds (mainly due to convection in the area)



Interestingly enough WND DIR has been backing and now from the N:



Although SFC pressures are not falling yet. It would appear a weak low might be trying to get going.
Hopeless :( now GFDL is a fish as well
Quoting WxLogic:
Updated 12Z 850VORT MAX shows a slight in crease in low level spin across the SE GOM:



Buoy 42003 is showing some increase in WND speeds (mainly due to convection in the area)



Interestingly enough WND DIR has been backing and now from the N:



Although SFC pressures are not falling yet. It would appear a weak low might be trying to get going.


pressures are rising, not likely
782. MahFL
Quoting WarEagle8:
Blob in GOM...there has been some rotation for a day now, so is this going to develop or not?


With 35 kts of shear I would say no.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


pressures are rising, not likely


Not likely at this time for sure, but if convection persists prior to further displacement to the NNE to NE then it might have a slight chance. Of course extra tropical or sub tropical in nature.
Quoting TampaSpin:


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/TampaSpin/show.h tml


Read your blog... all true.

I think the low in the NE GOM could make a run... but not sure if it's a winner.

Saw the vorticity in SE GOM... maybe that could be the beginning of something.

When the MJO comes back around... could light up in there in a week to 10 days possibly.
Quoting whepton3:


Read your blog... all true.

I think the low in the NE GOM could make a run... but not sure if it's a winner.

Saw the vorticity in SE GOM... maybe that could be the beginning of something.

When the MJO comes back around... could light up in there in a week to 10 days possibly.


Shear is rather High currently and does not appear to be going away. I doubt now that much can get started.

The NAM is a pretty good model to show things 24-36hrs out!




High Shear across most of the MDR not much can develop very well with this much Shear out there!
Quoting TampaSpin:
The NAM is a pretty good model to show things 24-36hrs out!




Looks like the NAM elongates it to the NE and then it just goes away.

Could bring some rain to some folks that need it in S GA though...

Quoting TampaSpin:


High Shear across most of the MDR not much can develop very well with this much Shear out there!


Big time.
Shear will behead anything getting across at the moment for sure.


Quoting TampaSpin:


High Shear across most of the MDR not much can develop very well with this much Shear out there!


Anything trying to get going now gets beheaded.

That fate awaits Ophelia I think.
734 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A DEEP LAYER SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TODAY AT AROUND 15 MPH. MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE MORNING THEN DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INLAND. LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AND IMPACT THE INTERIOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AS SHOWERS AND STORMS COME ASHORE THIS MORNING AND IN THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND QUICKLY BE ON TOP OF BOATERS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS ON THE COASTAL AND INLAND WATERS. BOATERS SHOULD KEEP A LOOKOUT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SKIES FOR APPROACHING WEATHER AND SEEK SHELTER BEFORE THE STORMS ARRIVE.

We've been getting some nice brief showers followed by sun. Little white puffy clouds, blue skies...gorgeous weather here now. Have a great day everyone.
Quoting whepton3:


Anything trying to get going now gets beheaded.

That fate awaits Ophelia I think.


Ya she is in about 25kts of Shear now. Don't believe that will change too much and actually she might get a little less shear the further West she moves. Does not seem much in any kind of Atlantic Born systems will impact the ConUs much longer.

But, we certainly need to watch those born in the Caribbean and GOM which are not done yet. Got a fairly long road to go yet.
Got a bunch of Family coming down to Tampa from Indiana for the COLTS vs. BUCS game on Monday nite football on Oct. 3rd. Don't need any systems at all that week as its a complete week of GameNite then Golf and Fishing the entire week. YOu all make that good weather happen for me........LOL! Gotta run. BBL!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya she is in about 25kts of Shear now. Don't believe that will change too much and actually she might get a little less shear the further West she moves. Does not seem much in any kind of Atlantic Born systems will impact the ConUs much longer.

But, we certainly need to watch those born in the Caribbean and GOM which are not done yet. Got a fairly long road to go yet.


10 days... 10 days or thereabouts in tropical purgatory.

We're getting there... just looked at the MJO.. starting to creep around about then.

Figure by then the shear will probably loosen up and there will be some Caribbean mayhem in October.

CATL season I think is just about milked for all it's worth.

Maybe one more... could be the wave coming off Africa, but it'll either curve or get sliced up with shear.
I CAN'T BELIEVE THERE IS DUST IN ME AREA OF THE ANTILLES!!!!!!!!!!! OF COURSE THERE IS NO INTERESTING WEATHER.... BUT INSTEAD ALL INGREDIENTS TO KEEP IT DEAD BORING!!