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Typhoon Phanfong a Heavy Rainfall Threat for Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:39 PM GMT on October 03, 2014

Dangerous Category 3 Typhoon Phanfone is steaming northwest at 11 mph towards Japan, and is likely to bring that nation serious flooding problems over the weekend. Satellite loops show that Phanfone is a large and well-organized typhoon with a prominent eye and a large area of intense thunderstorms. However, conditions for intensification are no longer as favorable, with wind shear now a high 20 knots on Friday morning. Ocean temperatures remained warm, though, near 30°C (86°F). Ocean temperatures will cool sharply and wind shear will rise further on Saturday as the typhoon approaches Japan, weakening the storm. Our two top models for predicting typhoon tracks, the GFS and European, predicted with their 00Z Friday runs that Phanfone would hit the main Japanese island of Honshu near 18 UTC on Sunday. The Joint Typhoon Warming Center continues to maintain a forecast keeping the core of the storm offshore of Japan, as they believe Phanfone will be unable to penetrate very far westward into the strong upper-level westerly headwinds that will be present over Japan this weekend. Phanfone will be steadily weakening as it approaches Japan, and should be no stronger than a Category 1 storm at its point of closest approach. Heavy rains from Phanfone will arrive in Japan on Saturday, and are likely to bring dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. The Friday morning 06Z run of the GFDL model predicted that Phanfone would dump widespread rains of 8+ inches across much of Japan. One area of particular concern is the Mt. Ontake volcano, which erupted last Saturday, killing 47 and leaving dozens missing. Phanfone's heavy rains will mobilize Mt. Ontake's ash deposits into dangerous mudflows, seriously complicating the search for victims of Japan's deadliest volcanic eruption in 90 years.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image from NASA's Aqua satellite of Typhoon Phanfone taken at 01:55 UTC October 3, 2014. At the time, Phanfone was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds, and had a 35-mile diameter eye, after completing an eyewall replacement cycle. Compare this to the 5-mile diameter eye seen the previous day (Figure 2, below.) Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. The pinhole 5-mile diameter eye of Typhoon Phanfone as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite on October 2, 2014. Image credit: Dan Lindsey, NOAA.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for Typhoon Phanfone as simulated by the GFDL model at 06Z Friday October 3, 2014. Phanfone was predicted to dump widespread rains of 8+ inches (yellow colors) across much of Japan. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

Next up for Japan: Tropical Storm Vongfong?
The Western Pacific's newest tropical storm, Tropical Storm Vongfong, formed Thursday evening in the Pacific waters about 1800 miles east of the Philippines. The storm is headed west-northwest at 11 mph, and is expected to intensify into a major typhoon by early next week. This storm may also be a threat to Japan 8 - 10 days from now.

Tropical Storm Simon a potential threat to Mexico's Baja Peninsula
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Simon, with sustained winds of 60 mph at 11 am EDT Friday, was headed west-northwest at 9 mph away from the coast. Simon is expected to recurve to the north early next week, and could be a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the models are in substantial disagreement on the long-range fate of Simon. The usually reliable European model keeps the storm well to the west away from Mexico's Baja Peninsula through Friday of next week, while most of the rest of the reliable models (GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF) show landfall in the Central Baja Peninsula on Tuesday or Wednesday. NHC is currently splitting the difference between these two extremes, since it is unclear which model solution will be correct. If the GFS model is correct, Simon could bring another round of heavy rainfall to the Southwest U.S. late next week.

Quiet in the Atlantic
Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis show nothing developing in the Atlantic over the next five days. A major outbreak of dry air from the Sahara, unusual for this time of year, is currently in progress over the Tropical Atlantic, which will make it difficult for anything to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands over the coming week.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory offers his take on what rest of hurricane season might bring in his Thursday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. M
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1014 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

FLC131-031530-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0257.000000T0000Z-141003T1530Z/
WALTON FL-
1014 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY...

AT 1011 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ARGYLE TO EUCHEEANNA TO BUNKER...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

Hmmm ... a hurricane season without ANY significant Atlantic hurricanes?

How (un)common is that?
rtn netwk yesterday was saying western japan was already receiving heavy rains from a stationary front.
Quoting Econundertow:

Hmmm ... a hurricane season without ANY significant Atlantic hurricanes?

How (un)common is that?


What's your definition of significant? I thought Edouard was awesome to watch, and that was a major hurricane.


Thank you Dr. Masters
thanx doc.,....japan looking to get hit twice again.........as for simon....looks like we could see some moisture from simon here in west texas tuesday or wednesday
Quoting 6. CybrTeddy:



What's your definition of significant? I thought Edouard was awesome to watch, and that was a major hurricane.





I thought Arthur was pretty interesting to watch as well. I believe we were able to see its entire life on radar, which was pretty cool!
Who turned the pipe on overhead ?????

It's been coming down in bucket loads overnight and again this morning.
This is going to cause Woe and Anguish, especially to the 25 households that lost their roofs on Wednesday from the front-line of this wave.

This is what the rainy season is supposed to be like !
Concerning the Ebola - Infulenza debate, may I suggest that the symptons of Infulenza are a part of our common experience.
We have all had such and we know sometimes people die from it, but we have accepted that as part of life.

But as I understand, one sympton of Ebola is that the body looses its ability to hold blood in.
Which is something beyond our common experence. We have never had/seen such symptoms in our daily lives.

Therefore we may have a psychological fear of Ebola in addition to a fear of its high death rate.
Quoting 11. Opensheart:

Concerning the Ebola - Infulenza debate, may I suggest that the symptons of Infulenza are a part of our common experience.
We have all had such and we know sometimes people die from it, but we have accepted that as part of life.

But as I understand, one sympton of Ebola is that the body looses its ability to hold blood in.
Which is something beyond our common experence. We have never had/seen such symptoms in our daily lives.

Therefore we may have a psychological fear of Ebola in addition to a fear of its high death rate.

Possible case of Ebola in a washington DC hospital.
Quoting 9. Envoirment:



I thought Arthur was pretty interesting to watch as well. I believe we were able to see its entire life on radar, which was pretty cool!


Arthur was pretty neat because of that, one of the only times i can remember where the entire development of a hurricane was seen on radar, Ophelia in 2005 was another one.
1 S LAKE CITY CRAIGHEAD AR 3580 9045 POSSIBLE TORNADO SPOTTED SOUTH OF LAKE CITY MOVING EAST NORTHEAST. (MEG)
0340 S STEELE PEMISCOT MO 3608 8985 POSSIBLE TORNADO ON GROUND NEAR MILE MARKER 6 ON I-55 JUST SOUTH OF STEELE. (MEG)
Quiet in the Atlantic

This has become the new norm for the Atlantic Basin.
16. DDR
Good afternoon
Hello pottery,yea big time rains since yesterday morning,i've got 6 inches plus since then,its currently raining by the buckets.
Quoting 13. CybrTeddy:



Arthur was pretty neat because of that, one of the only times i can remember where the entire development of a hurricane was seen on radar, Ophelia in 2005 was another one.


That one had a very unique radar presentation. All those voticies inside the eye were pretty cool.
Quoting GatorWX:


That one had a very unique radar presentation. All those voticies inside the eye were pretty cool.


I recall one of the weatherman on TV (WFTV maybe..?) calling Ophelia the most doughnut looking tropical cyclone he's ever seen.

Wilma also had a doughnut shape with that huge eye

.

Quoting 18. CybrTeddy:



I recall one of the weatherman on TV (WFTV maybe..?) calling Ophelia the most doughnut looking tropical cyclone he's ever seen.




Not as good as watching it slowly, live, but...

I believe the death rate from Ebola in the USA is a big fat zero, correct ?
Correct to date.
Quoting MahFL:
I believe the death rate from Ebola in the USA is a big fat zero, correct ?

So far. I don't really want to know what it could be. May be time to shut down travel into US from infected areas; maybe quarantine.

If it shows up here, I'm pulling the kids out of school. Damn the consequences. Face it, this one got by the "authorities." Don't know why. Possibly politics.

Quoting 22. MahFL:

I believe the death rate from Ebola in the USA is a big fat zero, correct ?
ok children...todays science lesson :)

Link

There is no reason to panic about Ebola here. Is it a deadly disease? Yes. Out of 7,178 known cases, 3,338 deaths have been confirmed; that's a mortality rate of 47%. However, the virus is only spreading out of control in West Africa due to poor sanitation conditions. The United States is much better equipped to handle the outbreak as long as initial steps are taken to prevent it from spreading out of control. The CDC has quarantined the family of the visitor who brought Ebola to Dallas, and they're contact tracing all people who may have come into contact with the individual.

Now, if Ebola were airborne, this would be a different story. We're all so interconnected that it would spread like a wildfire on a dry, windy day. But, as the CDC and WHO have emphasized for the past several months, Ebola is only spread through bodily fluids.
Quoting 26. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is no reason to panic about Ebola here. Is it a deadly disease? Yes. Out of 7,178 known cases, 3,338 deaths have been confirmed; that's a mortality rate of 47%. However, the virus is only spreading out of control in West Africa due to poor sanitation conditions. The United States is much better equipped to handle the outbreak as long as initial steps are taken to prevent it from spreading out of control. The CDC has quarantined the family of the visitor who brought Ebola to Dallas, and they're contact tracing all people who may have come into contact with the individual.


Thats not really correct, we will really only know the real mortality rate once the disease has stopped active transmission, and the WHO has said its more like 70%.
Florida has a better chance of a tropical cyclone hitting the state then someone getting Ebola. It is not airborne you have a better chance of getting the flu or a cold.
Quoting 26. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is no reason to panic about Ebola here. Is it a deadly disease? Yes. Out of 7,178 known cases, 3,338 deaths have been confirmed; that's a mortality rate of 47%. However, the virus is only spreading out of control in West Africa due to poor sanitation conditions. The United States is much better equipped to handle the outbreak as long as initial steps are taken to prevent it from spreading out of control. The CDC has quarantined the family of the visitor who brought Ebola to Dallas, and they're contact tracing all people who may have come into contact with the individual.


you forgot about the 400 people who flew on two different flights with him..

but you're right..nothing to worry about..it only took the CDC to ignore the brother's call to its facility and 10 days to contact the family of the infected because its better equipped to handle any outbreak..

good times..
Quoting 15. Sfloridacat5:

Quiet in the Atlantic

This has become the new norm for the Atlantic Basin.


Love it
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting 26. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is no reason to panic about Ebola here. Is it a deadly disease? Yes. Out of 7,178 known cases, 3,338 deaths have been confirmed; that's a mortality rate of 47%. However, the virus is only spreading out of control in West Africa due to poor sanitation conditions. The United States is much better equipped to handle the outbreak as long as initial steps are taken to prevent it from spreading out of control. The CDC has quarantined the family of the visitor who brought Ebola to Dallas, and they're contact tracing all people who may have come into contact with the individual.

Now, if Ebola were airborne, this would be a different story. We're all so interconnected that it would spread like a wildfire on a dry, windy day. But, as the CDC and WHO have emphasized for the past several months, Ebola is only spread through bodily fluids.

This is correct. The media will hype it up as much as they can, but we have absolutely nothing to worry about here in America. There is no way we will have a widespread ebola epidemic here. A horrible disease for sure, but one that simply due to its nature and our advanced sanitation methods is not a threat to us here.
Quoting 24. HaoleboySurfEC:

So far. I don't really want to know what it could be. May be time to shut down travel into US from infected areas; maybe quarantine.

If it shows up here, I'm pulling the kids out of school. Damn the consequences. Face it, this one got by the "authorities." Don't know why. Possibly politics.


The "Authorities" don't really have any control over infectious diseases, when one stops to think about it. A virus or bacteria can incubate for even a year or more inside of a human being, then suddenly explode with a vengeance. All the rules, regulations and restrictions on the planet will do nothing against that. Even more so, many viruses can be transmitted by other species, such as birds, insects, cattle, swine and countless others, including some marine creatures. Just who in the human community is going to regulate that? That is the whole dire fear about H5N5, aka: "bird flu," should it ever mutate accordingly (and it may someday), because birds could carry it all around the planet even if every single human were frozen permanently in place.

And our attention has been directed to Ebola today but there are countless pathogens all around the earth in the formative stages, some of which could one day become deadly to humans. It has always been this way. The best defense is to take matters of caution and prudence into one's own hands and then hope for the best. You can increase your odds of survival greatly as a result of your own efforts but no one can guarantee that, not now, not ever.
Quoting 27. VAbeachhurricanes:



Thats not really correct, we will really only know the real mortality rate once the disease has stopped active transmission, and the WHO has said its more like 70%.

Yeah, that's why I said known (meant to put emphasis on it). The number of cases and deaths are likely being well under-reported.

Quoting 29. ncstorm:



you forgot about the 400 people who flew on two different flights with him..

but you're right..nothing to worry about..it only took the CDC to ignore the brother's call to its facility and 10 days after the person was admitted to the hospital to contact the family of the infected because its better equipped to handle any outbreak..

good times..

As the CDC director said, the people that flew with him are not at risk of catching the disease because he did not begin to show symptoms until a few days after he arrived in Dallas. As a precautionary measure, the CDC tested 100 people that may have come into contact with the Ebola patient, and all tested negative for the disease.

Ebola is something to be knowledgeable about, but it's not a significant concern here right now, and probably won't ever be.
Well I feel better..it was just a technical error..

Time Magazine

Hospital says patient did not acknowledge being around anyone ill in Africa

The Dallas hospital treating Thomas Eric Duncan, the first diagnosed case of Ebola in the U.S., suggested Thursday night that a technical flaw contributed to the decision not to admit Duncan on his first visit despite his declared history of travel to West Africa.

Under pressure for its role in potentially exposing scores of Americans to the deadly virus, the hospital said in a statement that a flaw in its electronic health-records system prevented the doctor attending Duncan from seeing that he had recently traveled from Liberia, which was noted by the nurse who screened him.

Protocols were followed by both the physician and then nurses, the hospital said, adding that the system, designed to help nurses administer flu vaccines, prevented the note on Duncan's travel history from automatically appearing for the doctor.

The hospital said it would amend the system to highlight whether patients had traveled to Ebola-stricken regions. We feel that this change will improve the early identification of patients who may be at risk for communicable diseases, including Ebola, the statement said.
Quoting ncstorm:


you forgot about the 400 people who flew on two different flights with him..

but you're right..nothing to worry about..it only took the CDC to ignore the brother's call to its facility and 10 days to contact the family of the infected because its better equipped to handle any outbreak..

good times..


A) He didn't have the symptoms then, Ebola can only be attracted when the symptoms exists (he may have known he had been exposed to the disease by then, but that's another story) and B) one can only get Ebola through bodily fluids in any case.
Great, flip a coin. Heads you live, tails you die.

I'm simply maintaining that if it gets into the school system around here, my kids are staying home.

I agree panic is bad, but I owe it to my loved ones to be cautious and vigilant.

blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 26. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There is no reason to panic about Ebola here. Is it a deadly disease? Yes. Out of 7,178 known cases, 3,338 deaths have been confirmed; that's a mortality rate of 47%. However, the virus is only spreading out of control in West Africa due to poor sanitation conditions. The United States is much better equipped to handle the outbreak as long as initial steps are taken to prevent it from spreading out of control. The CDC has quarantined the family of the visitor who brought Ebola to Dallas, and they're contact tracing all people who may have come into contact with the individual.

Now, if Ebola were airborne, this would be a different story. We're all so interconnected that it would spread like a wildfire on a dry, windy day. But, as the CDC and WHO have emphasized for the past several months, Ebola is only spread through bodily fluids.
Quoting 11. Opensheart:

Concerning the Ebola - Infulenza debate, may I suggest that the symptons of Infulenza are a part of our common experience.
We have all had such and we know sometimes people die from it, but we have accepted that as part of life.

But as I understand, one sympton of Ebola is that the body looses its ability to hold blood in.
Which is something beyond our common experence. We have never had/seen such symptoms in our daily lives.

Therefore we may have a psychological fear of Ebola in addition to a fear of its high death rate.



You just gave me a great idea for the next natural disaster movie. EBOLANADO! Massive tornadoes strike Ebola containment camps and spread it around.
This is stronger than 105kts... not sure why JTWC actually lowered the intensity on their latest warning. Probably in the 115-120kts range now. That's about as high as a storm with this structure can go though. It won't reach its maximum potential, its environment easily could have supported a Cat 5, but it hasn't put the right inner core together. Too small an eye at first, now too big. Things that we don't really understand why it happens.

Typhoon 18W Phanfone

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2014 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 24:45:29 N Lon : 133:29:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 932.2mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 41 km

Center Temp : +7.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.4C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 142km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.7 degrees




Quoting ncstorm:


you forgot about the 400 people who flew on two different flights with him..

but you're right..nothing to worry about..it only took the CDC to ignore the brother's call to its facility and 10 days to contact the family of the infected because its better equipped to handle any outbreak..

good times..


This morning NBCnews was talking to the head of the CDC asking him why it took a week to get a HAZMAT crew to the apartment complex.
He made this weird face and said we are there now and we are taking care of it.

nytimes.com
Liberian man fell ill with Ebola in Dallas, and four days after he was placed in isolation at a hospital here, the apartment where he was staying with four other people had not been sanitized and the sheets and dirty towels he used while sick remained in the home. County officials visited the apartment without protection Wednesday night.

Dallas County Officials leaving the apartment unprotected before it had been cleaned.


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/us/dallas-ebola -case-thomas-duncan-contacts.html?_r=0
TA..the same person that is infected failed to tell the authorities he took a sick woman to the hospital while in Africa..

I really hope they view the airplane security cameras on the plane and in the airport to see if the man was exhibiting symptoms and the victim isnt still trying to cover up his part and verify he wasn't sick..

United Airlines contacted those 400 people he was in contact immediately when they heard about the sick patient..far better than what the CDC did..

I'm not a fear monger..I'm just peeved off that this could have been handled better..we are not a 3rd world country and things like technical issues or having a difficult time to find people who can clean an apartment of a possible contagent just baffles me right now..
Quoting 16. DDR:

Good afternoon
Hello pottery,yea big time rains since yesterday morning,i've got 6 inches plus since then,its currently raining by the buckets.

Heavy stuff has passed, and a constant dribble has replaced it here.
You got 6'' ? That's a lot.
A little less than 3'' here since this time yesterday.

Any reports of flooding ?
Ri-cola'
Quoting 36. CybrTeddy:



A) He didn't have the symptoms then, Ebola can only be attracted when the symptoms exists (he may have known he had been exposed to the disease by then, but that's another story) and B) one can only get Ebola through bodily fluids in any case.

How long can Ebola live on a surface?

In one study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Ebola virus lived on a surface in a perfectly controlled environment for up to six days. But the environment at an airport, for example, or a school is not perfectly suited to support viruses.

Studies done in Ebola Treatment Units in Africa, CDC spokeswoman Abbigail Tumpey says, show the virus can live on surfaces for a few hours at most.
19W the precursor to "VongFong" is getting its Mojo aligned and cranking.




Quoting sporteguy03:
Florida has a better chance of a tropical cyclone hitting the state then someone getting Ebola. It is not airborne you have a better chance of getting the flu or a cold.


Man I sure hope I have a better chance of catching a cold than Ebola.

One will probably kill me. The other will make me blow my nose for a few day.
One can die from ignorance too, easily.


I suggest USMC NBC training manuals for those inclined.


Light reading for preppers'


I thought CDC stood for Center of Disease Control. You do make some good points nonetheless. We'll see how it goes in the coming weeks.

It's not like this outbreak popped up overnight. I'll maintain, given the potentially high mortality rate, that more should have been done (and can still be done) to keep this disease from entering the USA. It's not airborne we know how it is currently transmitted so it seems possible to limit it geographically.

Quoting 33. FLWaterFront:

The "Authorities" don't really have any control over infectious diseases, when one stops to think about it. A virus or bacteria can incubate for even a year or more inside of a human being, then suddenly explode with a vengeance. All the rules, regulations and restrictions on the planet will do nothing against that. Even more so, many viruses can be transmitted by other species, such as birds, insects, cattle, swine and countless others, including some marine creatures. Just who in the human community is going to regulate that? That is the whole dire fear about H5N5, aka: "bird flu," should it ever mutate accordingly (and it may someday), because birds could carry it all around the planet even if every single human were frozen permanently in place.

And our attention has been directed to Ebola today but there are countless pathogens all around the earth in the formative stages, some of which could one day become deadly to humans. It has always been this way. The best defense is to take matters of caution and prudence into one's own hands and then hope for the best. You can increase your odds of survival greatly as a result of your own efforts but no one can guarantee that, not now, not ever.
Man I sure hope I have a better chance of catching a cold than Ebola.

One will probably kill me. The other will make me blow my nose for a few day.


the point is...not only do you have a better chance of catching a cold...than catching ebola...but you have a better chance of catching a cold and dying from it...than you do of catching ebola
Good Afternoon...............Whose's your daddy? NHC or CDC?
Quoting 32. MAweatherboy1:


This is correct. The media will hype it up as much as they can, but we have absolutely nothing to worry about here in America. There is no way we will have a widespread ebola epidemic here. A horrible disease for sure, but one that simply due to its nature and our advanced sanitation methods is not a threat to us here.
The only place I believe in America where ebola might go out of control is Haiti their health system is not good compare to others in the same region.
I hope you are right, but you have to wonder why the president sent 3,000 troops to West Africa if it was nothing to worry about.

Everyone be cautious, safe and use your heads.

Clouds approaching here. Wind picking up. Expect line of storms late afternoon Florence, SC. Cooler, drier air arrives late tonight/early tomorrow.


Quoting 32. MAweatherboy1:


This is correct. The media will hype it up as much as they can, but we have absolutely nothing to worry about here in America. There is no way we will have a widespread ebola epidemic here. A horrible disease for sure, but one that simply due to its nature and our advanced sanitation methods is not a threat to us here.
Quoting 47. Sfloridacat5:



Man I sure hope I have a better chance of catching a cold than Ebola.

One will probably kill me. The other will make me blow my nose for a few day.
You have a far, far greater chance of catching a cold, obviously. That is virtually guaranteed to happen, unless you should exit this world all too soon and suddenly for some other reason and I'd be willing to bet that would not be Ebola.

Let's put this illness into a little perspective here, if it helps allay anyone's fears just a bit. The current Ebola outbreak in several West African countries began a little more than six months ago. These are all poor nations with vastly less health resources than one finds anywhere in the developed world. In addition, the local population in these locales is not nearly as knowledgeable about preventing spread of disease as we are in the US and similar countries. In some instances long-standing superstitions about diseases and healthcare have hindered matters further.

And yet, in spite of all this, as of September 30 the total number of recorded deaths in all African nations reporting cases so far is 6608. Each of these small African nations has a population of several million people, with the exception of Nigeria (where only about 20 confirmed cases have so far been reported), which has a much larger population in the tens of millions. So after more than six months of outbreak in ideal conditions for the virus to spread, only a tiny, tiny fraction of the total population in the affected areas has died. Hmmm..

Now if it mutates and becomes much more easily transmissible that will be another story. But it has not done that yet and Ebola has been known to exist since the early 1980s at least. So perhaps there are things we could worry about that in fact are more likely to do us in. Or maybe we can just forego worrying altogether and remain alert, informed and prudent but not in fret.
Quoting 55. HaoleboySurfEC:

I hope you are right, but you have to wonder why the president sent 3,000 troops to West Africa if it was nothing to worry about.

Everyone be cautious, safe and use your heads.

Clouds approaching here. Wind picking up. Expect line of storms late afternoon Florence, SC. Cooler, drier air arrives late tonight/early tomorrow.





Its a dire situation in Africa. I saw this last night on ABC news facebook page..they dont know if people are dead or not from this disease..

I commend the journalists in wanting to report the story but they place themselves in harms way but I guess you could view it just like being in a war zone....I understand the doctors and nurses being there and taking the risk but those just wanting a story..I dont understand..
Have anyone seen my new site yet.
This particular frontal passage through the Florida Big Bend is a non-event so far. Skies a little dark but not much rain in patches here and there and very little in the way of any winds.  Don't know how other parts of the US will fare downstream based on relative position of the Conus jet but the SE still in the clear from a severe weather threat at this point time:
 
Hopefully today is the last day for this year that we'll see 100 degree heat index readings.

Quoting 61. Sfloridacat5:

Hopefully today is the last day for this year that we'll see 100 degree heat index readings.




Today is unbearably hot in Tampa. If this front was moving through when the heat of the day was at it's peak (like right now), I have a feeling we'd see some severe weather.
Quoting 50. ricderr:

Man I sure hope I have a better chance of catching a cold than Ebola.

One will probably kill me. The other will make me blow my nose for a few day.


the point is...not only do you have a better chance of catching a cold...than catching ebola...but you have a better chance of catching a cold and dying from it...than you do of catching ebola


That may be true right now today, but let's hope it stays that way.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
I hope you are right, but you have to wonder why the president sent 3,000 troops to West Africa if it was nothing to worry about.

Everyone be cautious, safe and use your heads.

Clouds approaching here. Wind picking up. Expect line of storms late afternoon Florence, SC. Cooler, drier air arrives late tonight/early tomorrow.



Troops are being sent there to build hospitals and labs, as well as teach workers there how to prevent the spread of the disease. Many funerals involve touching the dead bodies of Ebola victims, which is playing a significant role in the rapid spread of the disease in West Africa.
GFS isnt giving up on that LOW under Cuba...........................................
Quoting 65. LargoFl:

GFS isnt giving up on that LOW under Cuba...........................................


I have to agree with Scott on this one. The GFS has been a total disaster throughout this entire hurricane season. Not only from all of these phantom cyclones it shows but with precipitation, temps, etc.
Phanfone



Phanfone

Quoting 49. HaoleboySurfEC:

I thought CDC stood for Center of Disease Control. You do make some good points nonetheless. We'll see how it goes in the coming weeks.

It's not like this outbreak popped up overnight. I'll maintain, given the potentially high mortality rate, that more should have been done (and can still be done) to keep this disease from entering the USA. It's not airborne we know how it is currently transmitted so it seems possible to limit it geographically.


I think what scares people the most about Ebola, there is no cure and whatever treatments they are trying dont seem to work...one doc is indeed having some limited success in africa using the HIV meds....results unknown so far.
No FDA-approved vaccine or medicine (e.g., antiviral drug) is available for Ebola.

Symptoms of Ebola are treated as they appear. The following basic interventions, when used early, can significantly improve the chances of survival:
•Providing intravenous fluids (IV)and balancing electrolytes (body salts)
•Maintaining oxygen status and blood pressure
•Treating other infections if they occur

Experimental vaccines and treatments for Ebola are under development, but they have not yet been fully tested for safety or effectiveness.

Recovery from Ebola depends on good supportive care and the patient’s immune response. People who recover from Ebola infection develop antibodies that last for at least 10 years, possibly longer. It isn't known if people who recover are immune for life or if they can become infected with a different species of Ebola. Some people who have recovered from Ebola have developed long-term complications, such as joint and vision problems.
Quoting 68. Patrap:

Phanfone




Ya beat me. Off to work. Have fun all.
Phanfone very much reminds me of Wilma. Both started off with pinhole eyes, transitioning to huge eyes after their EWRCs. It's hard to strengthen much above 115kt once you get this kind of structure.

Unfortunately, the large core means impacts will be severe and widespread across Japan even if the eye remains offshore.
Quoting 68. Patrap:

Phanfone




Phanfone sounds like an app for a sports team......

of course, the correct spelling would be FanPhone, but still.
Freeze Watch

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1126 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

IAZ043-055-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-040 030-
/O.CON.KOAX.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-141003T2300Z/
/O.CON.KOAX.FZ.A.0001.141004T0700Z-141004T1300Z/
MONONA-HARRISON-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIER CE-WAYNE-BOONE-
MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-W ASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONAWA...MAPLETON...MISSOURI VALLEY...
WOODBINE...LOGAN...DUNLAP...CREIGHTON...BLOOMFIEL D...CROFTON...
WAUSA...VERDIGRE...NIOBRARA...HARTINGTON...LAUREL ...RANDOLPH...
COLERIDGE...PENDER...MACY...WALTHILL...WINNEBAGO. ..NELIGH...
ELGIN...PIERCE...PLAINVIEW...OSMOND...WAYNE...ALB ION...
ST. EDWARD...NORFOLK...STANTON...WEST POINT...WISNER...TEKAMAH...
OAKLAND...LYONS...DECATUR...COLUMBUS...SCHUYLER.. .FREMONT...BLAIR
1126 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* TIMING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE TOWARD EVENING.

* WINDS...WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE IMPACTED. THIS WOULD
INCLUDE ANY LATE SEASON GARDENS OR OUTDOOR PLANTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 30 TO
39 MPH OR GUSTS BETWEEN 45 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Quoting 65. LargoFl:

GFS isnt giving up on that LOW under Cuba...........................................


No, but I've given up on the GFS. Does that count?
Hey, all. Good morning!

No brunch on the sideboard here, but I have a little leftover tea/coconut milk/melon/mango smoothie left in the pitcher on the kitchen counter. I've got my housemates' four kids here, from 11 down to 6 months, all being booger dispensers so I'm going to spend a lot of time wiping noses and reading weather blogs.

I'm starting to get the "What do we expect for this winter?" questions, so I'm reading past almanacs and making guesses based on patterns and intuitive WAGs.

The problem I'm having is nothing is terribly clear. Last year looked a lot like 1977/'78 on the east coast, and dry out here in the West like the same period. So I'm looking at the '78/'79 almanac for around here, and it looks kind of ...bleh. Nothing I can really put a finger one, not too different from what's happening now, the highs were a bit higher, the lows were a bit more frequent and lower. Starting at the end of October, precip - sometimes rain, sometimes snow - was hitting every 7 to 10 days, from a quarter inch down to .05"/trace. So it sounds like maybe a normal winter for out here (whatever *that* is) but with less frequent but heavier precip, as the "mild to moderate El Nino" plus those extra high SSTs influence whatever tropical stuff is coming through.

I'm completely in the dark as to whether one of those juicy Pineapple Express patterns hit, or if we get more of the Revoltingly Repellant Ridge phenomenon. If anyone wants to have fun playing guessing games, I'm not far from KFNL, (I think it is) Fallon, NV NAS.
Quoting 29. ncstorm:



you forgot about the 400 people who flew on two different flights with him..

but you're right..nothing to worry about..it only took the CDC to ignore the brother's call to its facility and 10 days to contact the family of the infected because its better equipped to handle any outbreak..

good times...
400 people exchanging bodily fluids? I've never been on a flight like that! Too kinky for me.
"Everybody have fun tonight...
Everybody VongFong tonight..."

Quoting 46. Patrap:

19W the precursor to "VongFong" is getting its Mojo aligned and cranking.





Quoting 28. sporteguy03:

Florida has a better chance of a tropical cyclone hitting the state then someone getting Ebola. It is not airborne you have a better chance of getting the flu or a cold.


Statistically speaking, that would be a pretty high chance lol. But at least you made the Ebola discussion on topic.

seems as if the atlantic is becoming a bit more vibrant. it looks as if someone pulled the drain plug. things are moving again
Quoting 74. pottery:



Phanfone sounds like an app for a sports team......

of course, the correct spelling would be FanPhone, but still.


Here's a real "pan phone", lol:


Source. And good evening folks.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG (1419)
3:00 AM JST October 4 2014
===================================
Near Marshall Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Vongfong (1000 hPa) located at 9.0N 156.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
150 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 11.1N 151.9E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Near Truk waters (Chuuk)
48 HRS 13.2N 147.0E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) Marianas Islands
72 HRS 15.3N 142.1E - 70 knots (Strong Typhoon/CAT 3) Marianas Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON PHANFONE (1418)
3:00 AM JST October 4 2014
===================================
250 KM East Southeast of Minami Daito Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Phanfone (935 hPa) located at 24.7N 133.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
325 NM from the center in north quadrant
270 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 27.4N 131.0E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) southeast of Amami Oshima
48 HRS 31.6N 133.4E - 90 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) south of Shikoku [Kōchi Prefecture]
72 HRS 39.7N 147.7E - Extratropical Low In Sea East Of Japan
Quoting 79. Xulonn:

400 People exchanging bodily fluids? I've never been on a flight like that! Too kinky for me.


well wait..you shouldn't be flying right..got to protect the environment..

and I doubt if it was only one person that you would even be down much less 400..
Quoting 83. barbamz:



Here's a real "pan phone", lol:


Source. And good evening folks.

heheheheh

Good to see you, Barbz.
Quoting 50. ricderr:

Man I sure hope I have a better chance of catching a cold than Ebola.

One will probably kill me. The other will make me blow my nose for a few day.


the point is...not only do you have a better chance of catching a cold...than catching ebola...but you have a better chance of catching a cold and dying from it...than you do of catching ebola


Hey you! Quit it with your rational line of thinking....
Because the natural reservoir host of Ebola viruses has not yet been identified, the manner in which the virus first appears in a human at the start of an outbreak is unknown. However, researchers believe that the first patient becomes infected through contact with an infected animal.

When an infection does occur in humans, the virus can be spread in several ways to others. Ebola is spread through direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes in, for example, the eyes, nose, or mouth) with

blood or body fluids (including but not limited to urine, saliva, sweat, feces, vomit, breast milk, and semen) of a person who is sick with Ebola
objects (like needles and syringes) that have been contaminated with the virus
infected animals
Ebola is not spread through the air or by water, or in general, by food. However, in Africa, Ebola may be spread as a result of handling bushmeat (wild animals hunted for food) and contact with infected bats. There is no evidence that mosquitos or other insects can transmit Ebola virus. Only mammals (for example, humans, bats, monkeys, and apes) have shown the ability to become infected with and spread Ebola virus.

Healthcare providers caring for Ebola patients and the family and friends in close contact with Ebola patients are at the highest risk of getting sick because they may come in contact with infected blood or body fluids of sick patients.

During outbreaks of Ebola, the disease can spread quickly within healthcare settings (such as a clinic or hospital). Exposure to Ebola can occur in healthcare settings where hospital staff are not wearing appropriate protective equipment, including masks, gowns, and gloves and eye protection.

Dedicated medical equipment (preferable disposable, when possible) should be used by healthcare personnel providing patient care. Proper cleaning and disposal of instruments, such as needles and syringes, is also important. If instruments are not disposable, they must be sterilized before being used again. Without adequate sterilization of the instruments, virus transmission can continue and amplify an outbreak.

Once someone recovers from Ebola, they can no longer spread the virus. However, Ebola virus has been found in semen for up to 3 months. People who recover from Ebola are advised to abstain from sex or use condoms for 3 months.Ebola (Ebola Virus Disease)
Residents of Devon County, located in southwest England, have been sharing their home with scary, green-fanged spiders — the tube web spider — and they’re not of normal size. Experts say this invasion was caused by a mild summer which allowed them to breed, then grow far larger than normal. Some residents even claim that they’ve almost doubled in size!

Wow it is hot hot hot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 101.5 °F right now!
Quoting 86. pottery:


heheheheh

Good to see you, Barbz.


Pleasure's on my side, Pott. - But notttt with Gro's last post - please put this spider pic away, uaaa.

Here's a WPac blue marble loop with Phanfone and Vongfong following.

Understood, hence my concern. It's not often that we send troops to a foreign land to prevent the spread of a disease. My interpretation (as it has been from the time the troops were sent) is that they are trying to stop it there before it gets here.

Let's hope what is already here is quickly contained and this is all a nonissue.

And the line of storms quickly approaches...ETA 4:30. Hope it holds together. Skies look mean here in Florence, SC.

Quoting 64. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Troops are being sent there to build hospitals and labs, as well as teach workers there how to prevent the spread of the disease. Many funerals involve touching the dead bodies of Ebola victims, which is playing a significant role in the rapid spread of the disease in West Africa.
It is now on all the 12Z GFS Ensemble Members

Now down to 174hr on the GFS


Quoting 77. muddertracker:



No, but I've given up on the GFS. Does that count?
Quoting 90. SFLWeatherman:

Wow it is hot hot hot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 101.5 °F right now!


Our heat index is 112. Brutal.
12Z CMC
Hey you! Quit it with your rational line of thinking....



so sorry bolt...i realize making sense is not always wanted around here :-)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It is now on all the 12Z GFS Ensemble Members



The CMC/GEM and NOGAPS/NAVGEM has jumped on the idea

So I do buy GFS forecast

But I ain't putting all my money in the basket yet
Quoting 94. Grothar:



Our heat index is 112. Brutal.
yeah GRO..its terrible up in central fla as well....
MJO moving in too

Quoting 97. wunderkidcayman:



The CMC/GEM and NOGAPS/NAVGEM has jumped on the idea

So I do buy GFS forecast

But I ain't putting all my money in the basket yet
winds in EXCESS of 60mph............................................. ...........SVRTAE
FLC123-032000-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0259.141003T1924Z-141003T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PERRY...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 323 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PERRY...OR NEAR HAMPTON
SPRINGS...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PERRY-FOLEY AIRPORT...BUCELL JUNCTION...FOLEY...PINLAND...
FENHOLLOWAY AND SMITH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&
Quoting 95. SFLWeatherman:

12Z CMC

well this time of year they pop up suddenly down there..im staying alert even if the experts dont think anything of it...
GEM for next monday............................................ ..........................................
Quoting 98. LargoFl:

yeah GRO..its terrible up in central fla as well....


I don't ever, ever remember a summer (and winter) this hot.

Quoting 104. Grothar:



I don't ever, ever remember a summer (and winter) this hot.


yes im with you on that..this summer has been brutal
Getting close

Quoting 73. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Phanfone very much reminds me of Wilma. Both started off with pinhole eyes, transitioning to huge eyes after their EWRCs. It's hard to strengthen much above 115kt once you get this kind of structure.

Unfortunately, the large core means impacts will be severe and widespread across Japan even if the eye remains offshore.
Do you have some examples of hurricanes or typhoons with that structure that surpass that intensity or reach cat 5?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
MJO moving in too


Well thing seems to be shaping up to bring in W CARIB system
We are getting that light backend rain that was in W MO this a.m., didn't see it forecast, but won't really add to the 4" from what I'm seeing. The station I usually use and referenced earlier today must have a malfunctioning ane, cuz it was still showing light winds. Switched to the one just N of us, & showing consistent 16-20 WNW-NW w/ 30+ gusts, that I can believe! Has dropped to 52, got to 61 while sun was out around noon. dew pt down to 45, press up a little to 29.89". Still say 38 tonight for low, but have gone back to 35 for Sun morning. Either way it will be pretty cool. Good luck to the Cards out in L.A., SA's blowing today Ped?
Quoting 106. LargoFl:

yes im with you on that..this summer has been brutal


I was expecting it to be like that here in Northern Nevada, but at least down in the Lahontan Basin, it's been "normal" hot. Very few days in the triple digits, which we expect around here. The only thing causing problems, really, has been the drought.

Soil's pretty dry pretty far down, the only thing doing well in the garden have been the Thai bird peppers and two of the plum tomato bushes. I'm saving those plum tomato seeds - they're second generation seeds, I've been selecting against the local variant of damping off fungus, and for the heat, dry and soil composition. They're still vulnerable to blossom end rot, but kinda hard to deal with that in these dry conditions.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes im with you on that..this summer has been brutal


NWS has a high of 78 on Sunday for Tampa. That has to feel good.


We're expecting a high of 84 degrees down here, but with low humidity that should still feel really good.

Hurricane season is not over just yet! The peak season for South Florida is mid-October. This is not a forecast this is just an update on what could happen! Development possible in the next 7 to 10 days down in the Caribbean the GFS has been forecasting a tropical storm for some time now, but I have not been paying that much attention to it until now. On the 12Z GFS all of the ensembles were picking up on this idea and the GFS has been moving up the time frame so that is a indication that development might happen. As more models pick up on this idea the chances of it happening are going up the NAVGEM, CMC, Fim 7, Fim 8 and Fim 9 are some of these model.The Euro has yet to show any indication of this happening.
At 207PM The temperature reached 94 degree at Miami International Airport... this is now the new record... the previous record of 92 degrees was set in 1989.
odd to see the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlook look the same..

the pattern seems stuck for a while....



SFL................................................ ..........................................
well now there are several models saying something is going to form..this time of year me myself..i really stay alert.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


The CMC/GEM and NOGAPS/NAVGEM has jumped on the idea

So I do buy GFS forecast

But I ain't putting all my money in the basket yet



300 hours has a system just off the S.W. coast of Fl.
Lets see what the 18z shows. Lets keep this 300 hour time line in our memory for future runs.

Until we can get the time line down under 150 hours or so, I won't take it too seriously.

It is down to 174hr
Quoting 121. Sfloridacat5:




300 hours has a system just off the S.W. coast of Fl.
Lets see what the 18z shows. Lets keep this 300 hour time line in our memory for future runs.

Until we can get the time line down under 150 hours or so, I won't take it too seriously.


Quoting 115. Sfloridacat5:



NWS has a high of 78 on Sunday for Tampa. That has to feel good.


We're expecting a high of 84 degrees down here, but with low humidity that should still feel really good.


yeah local met says sunday morning is really going to be beautifulk,temp wise.
Quoting 114. nonblanche:



I was expecting it to be like that here in Northern Nevada, but at least down in the Lahontan Basin, it's been "normal" hot. Very few days in the triple digits, which we expect around here. The only thing causing problems, really, has been the drought.

Soil's pretty dry pretty far down, the only thing doing well in the garden have been the Thai bird peppers and two of the plum tomato bushes. I'm saving those plum tomato seeds - they're second generation seeds, I've been selecting against the local variant of damping off fungus, and for the heat, dry and soil composition. They're still vulnerable to blossom end rot, but kinda hard to deal with that in these dry conditions.
if things work out you just might get some rain from that TS on the pacific side when its moisture runs up into the states..good luck out there.
Quoting 112. DonnieBwkGA:


booming big time by you donnie?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
It is down to 174hr


I'm talking about a system just off the coast of Florida or in the GOM.

I'm not talking about a weak low in the Caribbean at 174 hours. GFS doesn't even show a close off low at 174 hours (the model I'm looking at).
12Z GFS at 174 hours
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014

FLZ024-025-GAZ166-032130-
COASTAL CAMDEN-DUVAL-NASSAU-
444 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAMDEN...DUVAL
AND NASSAU COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 444 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF YULEE TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OCEANWAY TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN
MARCO...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND TALLYRAND...SAN MARCO...OCEANWAY...
JACKSONVILLE...ARLINGTON...CRAIG FIELD...YULEE...ST. MARYS...FORT
CAROLINE AND DUNGENESS THROUGH 530 PM EDT. EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
Could get interesting if something spins up Otherwise, looks like some good late season beach weather.

Would love to get to OBX during the fine stretch of weather.

Quoting 118. ncstorm:

odd to see the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlook look the same..

the pattern seems stuck for a while....




By Christopher Seward
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Weather Channel has reduced its staff by about 40 employees across several cities after consolidating some operations to create a product and technology division. The new division will be responsible for providing the company’s commercial and individual users with the latest weather-centered products and technologies, according to internal communications. The consolidation affected several operations, including WSI, a provider of business-to-business weather services; Weather Underground, the company’s online weather service; information technology; consumer products; and digital.

its ok to post this right? i gave the co & name :P
Largo some very loud thunder and two bursts of heavy rain. Will provide total later.

Quoting 85. ncstorm:



well wait..you shouldn't be flying right..got to protect the environment..

and I doubt if it was only one person that you would even be down much less 400..
non sequitur
Model accuracy beyond 7 days (especially when there isn't even a formed system) is extremely low.
That's why I would like to see a formed system for the models to grab on to and for it to be within the 5-7 day time frame.
180-hr raging cyclone in the eastern caribean
Quoting 10. pottery:

Who turned the pipe on overhead ?????

It's been coming down in bucket loads overnight and again this morning.
This is going to cause Woe and Anguish, especially to the 25 households that lost their roofs on Wednesday from the front-line of this wave.

This is what the rainy season is supposed to be like !


Geeze 25 homes lost there roofs? Sounds like there was hurricane force downbursts!
Quoting 135. islander101010:

180-hr raging cyclone in the eastern caribean


where are you seeing this?
Quoting 132. DonnieBwkGA:

Largo some very loud thunder and two bursts of heavy rain. Will provide total later.





I only got 0.15, thought and hoped we'd see more with the amount of moisture in place and the strength of the front. Yes its fast moving but still, was hoping for at least 0.50.
sorry...101===cmc
Quoting 135. islander101010:

180-hr raging cyclone in the eastern caribean
A raging cyclone has been forecast in the caribbean since May from the GFS XD.Not only that but until the Euro comes on board or even shows a slight hint at something then I'm not believing anything.
Wow, dropped another 5 to 46 in just an hour, glad we've got a little cloud cover for now, we'd have a frost or freeze if it keeps going at this rate. WC of 39. Everyone have a good, if chilly, weekend! Oh, and one more, Go Cards!
0.85" of rain. Perfect before the cool down!
Quoting 77. muddertracker:



No, but I've given up on the GFS. Does that count?


Quoting 136. Jedkins01:



Geeze 25 homes lost there roofs? Sounds like there was hurricane force downbursts!
nws is warning of 40 to 60 mph wind gusts with this front,guess we'll see when it gets to my area later on
Terrible lighting storm near Miami Airport. A bolt just hit the airport so it seems.
Quoting 141. dabirds:

Wow, dropped another 5 to 46 in just an hour, glad we've got a little cloud cover for now, we'd have a frost or freeze if it keeps going at this rate. WC of 39. Everyone have a good, if chilly, weekend! Oh, and one more, Go Cards!


Dumped 1.3 from the rain gauge this afternoon, have had sprinkles this afternoon but just enough to wet the walkway..
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON PHANFONE (1418)
6:00 AM JST October 4 2014
===================================
210 KM East Southeast of Minami Daito Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Phanfone (935 hPa) located at 25.1N 133.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
325 NM from the center in north quadrant
270 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 28.1N 131.0E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) east of Amami Oshima
Jedkins..how it looks here now..Carillon cam...........................................
Boltdwright's confidence in the NWS was justified. The NWS forecast of precipitation in excess of all models verified.
GFS say in ft meyers,out daytona then up the east coast.......hope its bogus............................
Somewhat concerned about the second storm Vongfong as I will be arriving in Kyoto on the 16th. 8" plus more from that storm could be a major problem in Japan.


Some interesting articles from CWG
Link
0 code red's for D.C this summer

Powerful cold front sweeping across the U.S
Link
Quoting 153. VAstorms:

Somewhat concerned about the second storm Vongfong as I will be arriving in Kyoto on the 16th. 8" plus more from that storm could be a major problem in Japan.
hope its ok when you get there..looks pretty mean
12Z at 174hrs

Quoting 128. Sfloridacat5:

12Z GFS at 174 hours

Quoting 156. SFLWeatherman:

12Z at 174hrs


18z coming out
I don't recall the names Phanfone and Vongfong before, but Dingdong seems to ring a bell.
18Z at 180hrs
vonfong...who makes up these names lol..............................................
Vongfong

U should know dat easily, "Huh"



Pacific Tropical Cyclone Names
Quoting 162. SFLWeatherman:

18Z at 180hrs

I have the popcorn freshly popped for this run!.lol.
Gro you ok down in your area?............................
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...SMALL
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE
POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
FLORIDA.
Quoting 163. LargoFl:

vonfong...who makes up these names lol..............................................


Okay, at least the riddle of the meaning of this name could be solved, lol:

The name "Vongfong" was one of the 10 original names submitted by Macau to the WMO's Typhoon Committee for use from January 1, 2000. Vongfong was last used in the 2002 Pacific typhoon season and is the Macau word for wasp.
Source
18Z has it crossing cuba the up the coast.............................................
GFS trying to make Sandy part two happen lololol anhf shoot!.My hands are all buttery from the popcorn!.I can't type correctly!.
Quoting 170. washingtonian115:

GFS trying to make Sandy part two happen lololol anhf shoot!.My hands are all buttery from the popcorn!.I can't type correctly!.
My hands are all salty from the fries! Love watching the GFS comedy show!
Phanfone....East of Okinawa

Quoting 168. barbamz:



Okay, at least the riddle of the meaning of this name could be solved, lol:

The name "Vongfong" was one of the 10 original names submitted by Macau to the WMO's Typhoon Committee for use from January 1, 2000. Vongfong was last used in the 2002 Pacific typhoon season and is the Macau word for wasp.
Source


Now I'm looking for dear Phanfone:

The name Phanfone was submitted by Laos and is the name of an animal.
Source.
Would like to know which animal, but maybe it just means "animal"?
Quoting 168. barbamz:



Okay, at least the riddle of the meaning of this name could be solved, lol:

The name "Vongfong" was one of the 10 original names submitted by Macau to the WMO's Typhoon Committee for use from January 1, 2000. Vongfong was last used in the 2002 Pacific typhoon season and is the Macau word for wasp.
SourceTY for that!!
Quoting 171. Climate175:

My hands are all salty from the fries! Love watching the GFS comedy show!
It's the best thing to happen this hurricane season!.Oh look a sneak preview.

This next run will have you on the edge of your seat as the GFS sends a cat 4 smashing into Miami.It won't be called "paradise" after .This next run sounds interesting!.I'll have the cookies made for this one.lol.
GEM is saying it also....could be bogus but we finally have something to watch.......................
Quoting 160. LargoFl:



What on earth is the HWRF doing? So many zigzags O_O
I'm getting a call from the Euro model office."Hello you said the model sees nothing of such nature happening?.Okay".Thanks for the good laughs CMC and GFS during hurricane season.Wouldn't of have made it through without ya!.
Quoting 177. Huracan94:


What on earth is the HWRF doing? So many zigzags O_O
LOL yeah....
Quoting 136. Jedkins01:



Geeze 25 homes lost there roofs? Sounds like there was hurricane force downbursts!

Yeah, it was pretty violent, mostly in the North of the island.
The airport measured 37 mph, and south of the airport where I am I would guess 45mph.
Brought down some big branches in my yard.
It was the leading edge of this current wave.
Been raining hard , on and off, for 24 hours. No more wind though.
3.5'' in my gauge in 24 hrs, but north of here got plenty more.
Quoting 175. washingtonian115:

It's the best thing to happen this hurricane season!.Oh look a sneak preview.

This next run will have you on the edge of your seat as the GFS sends a cat 4 smashing into Miami.It won't be called "paradise" after .This next run sounds interesting!.I'll have the cookies made for this one.lol.
Already got the cinnamon buns ! XD
Chicago could see some snow mixed in with the rain tomorrow morning.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 4:02 PM PDT on October 03, 2014
Clear
95.8 °F
Heat Index: 91 °F
Humidity: 4%
Dew Point: 9 °F
Wind: 2.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 9.0 mph
Pressure: 29.91 in (Falling)
93.8F here and 101F at the Airport
no cooling used yet today, 75F inside,
water cooler at the ready and it works real
good with 4% humidity. I ran it on low all night
and had to get up and turn it off because it
was sub 60 in here this morning.
.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG IS INTENSIFYING FASTER THAN USUAL...
BREAKING THE CONSTRAINTS ON THE DVORAK METHOD. THE OUTFLOW FROM
TYPHOON PHANFONE TO THE NORTH WOULD NORMALLY BE MAKING IT HARDER
FOR VONGFONG. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH IS POSITIONED JUST RIGHT TO DEFLECT THE OUTFLOW AND TURN IT
INTO A OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR VONGFONG. THIS COULD ALLOW RAPID
INTENSIFICATION ONCE VONGFONG GETS JUST A LITTLE STRONGER.
THEREFORE WENT WITH TYPHOON WATCHES FOR GUAM THROUGH SAIPAN RATHER
THAN TROPICAL STORM WATCHES. RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS ARE URGED
TO KEEP ON THE LATEST INFO FOR VONGFONG.
Quoting 184. nrtiwlnvragn:

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG IS INTENSIFYING FASTER THAN USUAL...
BREAKING THE CONSTRAINTS ON THE DVORAK METHOD. THE OUTFLOW FROM
TYPHOON PHANFONE TO THE NORTH WOULD NORMALLY BE MAKING IT HARDER
FOR VONGFONG. HOWEVER...THIS TIME THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH IS POSITIONED JUST RIGHT TO DEFLECT THE OUTFLOW AND TURN IT
INTO A OUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR VONGFONG. THIS COULD ALLOW RAPID
INTENSIFICATION ONCE VONGFONG GETS JUST A LITTLE STRONGER.
THEREFORE WENT WITH TYPHOON WATCHES FOR GUAM THROUGH SAIPAN RATHER
THAN TROPICAL STORM WATCHES. RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS ARE URGED
TO KEEP ON THE LATEST INFO FOR VONGFONG.



Interesting
Quoting 181. Climate175:

Already got the cinnamon buns ! XD
I got a concession stand going.
188. txjac
Wow, fall has sprung ...even though it's just for a day or two ..lows in the upper 50's? I'll take it.

Only been popping in and out over the last couple of days ...however I haven't seen sar ...anyone seen him or have information on him?
Quoting 173. barbamz:
.
Would like to know which animal, but maybe it just means "animal"?
I think you may be correct, Barb. HERE is the best list of typhoon names with meanings that I have found, and that's what it indicates - phanfone simply means "animal" in the Lao language.
Wow

20141003 | 2101 | W-PAC | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 25.0 | -133.1 | 898 | 140 | 18W


Link
I have some jokes for you guys...

Why are Doctors always calm?
They have a lot of patience

What does a boat do when it's sick?
It goes to the Doc.

Why are calenders so well known?
They have a lot of dates.

What did the volcano sid to the other one?
I lava you.

Vongfong has gone from looking like a mess to something that could pass as a minimal typhoon just within this loop. Things could get ugly real quick here.
I see... reading from the previous I see one wants revenge.
Quoting 189. Xulonn:

I think you may be correct, Barb. HERE is the best list of typhoon names with meanings that I have found, and that's what it indicates - phanfone simply means "animal" in the Lao language.


Great, thank you!
For obvious reasons I'm already looking forward to a typhoon japanesely (huh, is this right?) named:
Washi = Aquila (eagle)
Lol.
Quoting 194. barbamz:



Great, thank you!
For obvious reasons I'm already looking forward to a typhoon japanesely (huh, is this right?) named:
Washi = Aquila (eagle)
Lol.
I never thought of that when making the user name.lol.
199. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, it was pretty violent, mostly in the North of the island.
The airport measured 37 mph, and south of the airport where I am I would guess 45mph.
Brought down some big branches in my yard.
It was the leading edge of this current wave.
Been raining hard , on and off, for 24 hours. No more wind though.
3.5'' in my gauge in 24 hrs, but north of here got plenty more.

Hey pottery,not that much more than you though,but i got exactly 5 inches from the am hours until about 4pm and im not even counting yesterday :)
200. DDR
6.8 inches since 4am on the 2nd to now.
Quoting 197. washingtonian115:

I never thought of that when making the user name.lol.


Good reason to change your avatar to a beautiful eagle, Washi, no?

And imagine, if once there is a typhoon post from our doc with a title like: "Washi is a serious threat to many countries", lol!!!
Quoting DDR:
6.8 inches since 4am on the 2nd to now.


Hey DDR.
Go outside and check the speed of the low-level cloud going past the moon.
Got to be 100 mph !

Really hope that does not come down to the surface !
203. txjac
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
&&

Previous discussion... /issued 320 PM CDT Friday Oct 3 2014/

Discussion...
beautiful weather across the area today with clear skies and
falling dewpoints. Tonight will be much cooler and will be the
coolest night so far this fall season. Saturday will again be
beautiful as surface high pressure moves overhead. Highs will
struggle to reach 80 and will likely stay in the upper 70s thanks
to cooling 850 temperatures and surface high pressure over the
area
. Sunday morning will again be cool but temperatures will
start to warm Sunday afternoon as surface high pressure quickly
retreats to the east. This mean the humidity will also comeback
Sunday afternoon. Monday morning rain chances will return to the
area as weak isentropic lift sets up over the area.


Ahhhhhh ...check out what's in store for me tomorrow.
We are getting some heavy storms rolling through

TS Simon will be a hurricane at 8 PM PDT advisory.


19E SIMON 141004 0000 19.0N 111.1W EPAC 65 988
The ATCF has upgraded Simon to a 65kt tropical cyclone, meaning that every system since Genevieve has attained hurricane intensity. As I mentioned last week, this continues the record-breaking streak of consecutive hurricanes (12 now, surpassing the record of 8 in 1993).

Conditions are favorable for Simon to rapidly intensify, so we'll see how high it gets.

Phanfone up to 130kts and Vongfong up to 55kts at 00z Best Track.

18W PHANFONE 141004 0000 25.6N 132.8E WPAC 130 926

19W VONGFONG 141004 0000 9.7N 155.1E WPAC 55 982
Good night folks. Low Joanna is approaching Central Europe, causing an end to the nice Indian Summer days we currently enjoy. Sunday I'm obliged to carry an old aunt to a future family reunion through half Germany by car. Guess it'll be quite a rainy drive ;-)



Forecast for Saturday:

Bonsoir monsieur, madame, and mademoiselle.

Looking at the national picture we have a cold front pushing south across Florida with strong cold air advection behind it and strong positive vorticity advection in the northeast all the way up into northern Ontario. The front should clear Florida tomorrow with overnight lows on Saturday dipping down into the mid to upper 50s in the interior of central Florida and upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast with 40s in north Florida.

We also have Tropical Storm Simon in the eastern Pacific which is a threat to the Baja Peninsula of Mexico.







Looking ahead we might have some DOOM!!! for Florida because this is the month where Florida needs to keep an eye on the Caribbean for tropical systems. Some of the most devastating storms in Florida's history have come in the month of October. Keep an eye to the skies and that is the way I see it.

Incredible video of a news crew slammed by severe storms covering the Ebola virus in Dallas.

Link

Video credited to NBC DFW 5.
This is some very peculiar weather down here over the southern Caribbean islands.

I think I'll keep an eye on this wave for a couple days.
Plenty energy.
A little off topic but simaler to Katrina, Isis, 9/11 and many other events. Prior we are told everything under control and how prepared we are. Even as event unfolds we are assured how public should not worry. Are they helping by not alarming public? Secrect service allows people to run into WH, CDC allows people to live in contaminated small appartment. Hospital sends home person recently from African Ebola area to leave even when they tell them all facts needed. It was in computer, I guess doctors so afraid of malpractice that we can't question them. Ok, good trial run for nation but incompetence seems to be running rampant. Management seems to be increasing out of touch with what really matters.
Quoting 140. washingtonian115:

A raging cyclone has been forecast in the caribbean since May from the GFS XD.Not only that but until the Euro comes on board or even shows a slight hint at something then I'm not believing anything.
The Euro model has EPAC development winning out instead and given how active it has been in the EPAC this year I would not be surprised. But now that the Euro is on board I will be paying particular attention to that area to see where the strongest vorticity comes out, could be competing vortices situation.

Actually starts the 850 mb. vorticity in the SW Caribbean moves it into the EPAC and then goes north and crosses back over into the GOH. I just want to track something interesting on our side now.
Anyone who can see towards the ocean off of Miami or Fort Lauderdale can see a lightning storm like I haven't seen in years.

Quoting 215. centex:

A little off topic but simaler to Katrina, Isis, 9/11 and many other events. Prior we are told everything under control and how prepared we are. Even as event unfolds we are assured how public should not worry. Are they helping by not alarming public? Secrect service allows people to run into WH, CDC allows people to live in contaminated small appartment. Hospital sends home person recently from African Ebola area to leave even when they tell them all facts needed. It was in computer, I guess doctors so afraid of malpractice that we can't question them. Ok, good trial run for nation but incompetence seems to be running rampant. Management seems to be increasing out of touch with what really matters.
We are only given hints how unprepared we are. I blame our free press, management seems to be toning it down, guess because they are smarter than me. I'm a firm believer that more truth is always better, they believe different, like NSA, CIA or anyone holding the truth in our society.
Shocking

Quoting 210. Grothar:




Doing that here too Gro. raining and +35F out. Supposed to get several inches of snow... Although for me it will short lived as I return to Miami on Sunday...
Quoting 222. Dakster:



Doing that here too Gro. raining and +35F out. Supposed to get several inches of snow... Although for me it will short lived as I return to Miami on Sunday...


I hope you get used to it. I know how much you were hating the heat. Our high tomorrow should be 92, but we expect to drop to 89 by Sunday.
now this is funny


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
907 AM CHST SAT OCT 4 2014




.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM VONGFONG IS THE 800 POUND GORILLA IN THE MARIANAS
WEATHER FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.




Quoting 223. Grothar:



I hope you get used to it. I know how much you were hating the heat. Our high tomorrow should be 92, but we expect to drop to 89 by Sunday.


Cold Front? I shall remember to bring my jacket with me...
Quoting 213. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Incredible video of a news crew slammed by severe storms covering the Ebola virus in Dallas.

Link

Video credited to NBC DFW 5.


That's some of the most impressive severe thunderstorm video footage I've seen, dang.

What I don't understand is, why is the news crew still out in the open? That's just stupid, not only could there be flying debris in that strong of wind gusts, but there was clearly plenty of dangerous lightning. With all that water, 1 close strike could have injured or killed almost everyone there.
Quoting 190. nrtiwlnvragn:

Wow

20141003 | 2101 | W-PAC | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 25.0 | -133.1 | 898 | 140 | 18W


Link

Wow! Thats 165 mph!
Quoting 212. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Bonsoir monsieur, madame, and mademoiselle.

Looking at the national picture we have a cold front pushing south across Florida with strong cold air advection behind it and strong positive vorticity advection in the northeast all the way up into northern Ontario. The front should clear Florida tomorrow with overnight lows on Saturday dipping down into the mid to upper 50s in the interior of central Florida and upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast with 40s in north Florida.

We also have Tropical Storm Simon in the eastern Pacific which is a threat to the Baja Peninsula of Mexico.







Looking ahead we might have some DOOM!!! for Florida because this is the month where Florida needs to keep an eye on the Caribbean for tropical systems. Some of the most devastating storms in Florida's history have come in the month of October. Keep an eye to the skies and that is the way I see it.




Yeah I'm definitely looking forward to the incoming front! We wont even hit 80 again until Tuesday or Wednesday, and lows will be plunging into the 40's this weekend with still low 80's for highs and 50's for lows into mid week.

We don't have too many deciduous trees here, but we do have some, and they are just starting to show color. It doesn't feel hot anymore, Fall is here!


As far as the tropics go? Yawn... lol, yes we are heading into a period with a dangerous history of gulf coast FL landfalls, but this probably won't be a year that we have to be concerned with that happening.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Wow

20141003 | 2101 | W-PAC | 6.5 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 25.0 | -133.1 | 898 | 140 | 18W


Link


Ouch.

Simon is a hurricane.

...SIMON BECOMES THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 040241
TCDEP4

HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014

Satellite estimates from TAFB, SAB and University of Wisconsin
CIMSS indicate that Simon has reached hurricane intensity with 65
kt. Simon is the 13th hurricane of the quite active eastern North
Pacific hurricane season of 2014, and another cyclone moving very
near or over Socorro Island, Mexico. Hourly observations from that
island provided by the Mexican Navy have been very useful in
determining the structure of Simon.

The cloud pattern is better organized tonight with a small but well-
defined inner core as indicated by the convective ring displayed in
several microwave overpasses during the past several hours. Simon
has the opportunity to strengthen a little more during the next 24
hours as it continues to move over a pool of 29.5 degree Celsius
water and extremely low shear. After 36 hours, the circulation of
Simon will begin to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and into a
more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast follows the
trend of the guidance which suggests Simon reaching its peak
intensity in a day or so.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest
or 285 degrees at 10 kt. However, Simon is reaching the southwestern
edge of the high pressure ridge centered over Mexico, and
approaching a large mid-level trough over the Central Pacific. This
pattern calls for a gradual turn toward the northwest and north
during the next 3 days as indicated in the official forecast. Beyond
3 days, the steering pattern becomes more complex, and the cyclone
either recurves to the northeast as suggested by the GFS or begins
to meander as forecast by the ECMWF. Since Simon is expected to be a
weaker storm by the end of the forecast period, it will likely move
little while embedded within the much lighter low-level flow. The
last portion of the forecast is highly uncertain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.2N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.9N 113.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.8N 115.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.8N 116.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 23.9N 116.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 25.0N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
Quoting 226. Jedkins01:



That's some of the most impressive severe thunderstorm video footage I've seen, dang.

What I don't understand is, why is the news crew still out in the open? That's just stupid, not only could there be flying debris in that strong of wind gusts, but there was clearly plenty of dangerous lightning. With all that water, 1 close strike could have injured or killed almost everyone there.
This may sound silly, but I kind of wonder were they trying to make a point in that it is more likely to get struck by lightning then dying from Ebola. Yeah, my professor was saying there was some local observing stations that had wind gusts over 100 mph. but it is yet to be confirmed by NWS and I don't believe an ASOS nearby recorded anything that high.
Quoting 202. pottery:



Hey DDR.
Go outside and check the speed of the low-level cloud going past the moon.
Got to be 100 mph !

Really hope that does not come down to the surface !


That's a classic sign of a potent low-level jet, it probably won't mix down to the surface, unless you get thunderstorms. It's quite possible that the low level jet was also present during the severe weather in your area that caused damage to homes. Thunderstorms usually aren't capable of generating winds strong enough to do without some dynamic enhancement like a jet.
Quoting 210. Grothar:


Snowing in Duluth.
Light Rain Snow
35°F
2°C
Humidity89%
Wind SpeedNW 20 G 26 mph
Barometer29.58 in (1002.9 mb)
Dewpoint32°F (0°C)
Visibility8.00 mi
Wind Chill24°F (-4°C)
Last Update on 3 Oct 9:55 pm CDT

Current conditions at
Duluth International Airport (KDLH)
Lat: 46.84°N Lon: 92.18°W Elev: 1424ft.
More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
Duluth MN

Link
FL Lightning/2000 v6.4.1 Summary (Friday, October 03, 2014 at 11:19:33 PM EDT)

Since midnight (1399.6 mins.):
Total strokes: 34,733 (avg. 24.8/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud strokes: 13,754 - 39.6% (avg. 9.8/min.)
+IC: 9602 - 69.8% (avg. 6.9/min.)
-IC: 4152 - 30.2% (avg. 3.0/min.)
Cloud to ground strokes: 20,969 - 60.4% (avg. 15.0/min.)
+CG: 2872 - 13.7% (avg. 2.1/min.)
-CG: 18,097 - 86.3% (avg. 12.9/min.)
Compact Intercloud Discharge: 8 - 0.0% (avg. 0.0/min.)

Total flashes: 22,798 (avg. 16.3/min.)
Cloud to ground flashes: 12,526 - 54.9% (avg. 8.9/min.)
+CG flashes: 2577 - 20.6% (avg. 1.8/min.)
-CG flashes: 9949 - 79.4% (avg. 7.1/min.)
Intercloud/Intracloud flashes: 10,264 - 45.0% (avg. 7.3/min.)
+IC flashes: 7114 - 69.3% (avg. 5.1/min.)
-IC flashes: 3150 - 30.7% (avg. 2.3/min.)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #42
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON PHANFONE (1418)
12:00 PM JST October 4 2014
===================================
130 KM East of Minami Daito Island

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Phanfone (935 hPa) located at 25.9N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots

Storm Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
325 NM from the center in north quadrant
270 NM from the center in south quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Forecast and Intensity
===================
24 HRS 29.4N 131.5E - 95 knots (Very Strong Typhoon/CAT 4) south southeast of Tanegashima [Kagoshima Prefecture]
It's a wet and nasty snow here right now. Not the light and puff stuff that is supposed to fall. We'll see what it looks like in the morning... Which is still a ways away since it is only 8pm now.
Dear Atlantic Ocean,
Atlantic, I'm both disappointed and proud of you. I'm proud of you because you produced a major hurricane, I'm dissapointed that you're inactive this year. I expect more out of you in 2016. So get it together and do right.Have a blessed day.
Andre Brooks
Quoting 238. Andrebrooks:

Dear Atlantic Ocean,
Atlantic, I'm both disappointed and proud of you. I'm proud of you because you produced a major hurricane, I'm dissapointed that you're inactive this year. I expect more out of you in 2016. So get it together and do right.Have a blessed day.
Andre Brooks
What happen to 2015?
Earliest snow on record for some places. Could we be in for another brutal winter?




Its still there. A massive Hurricane over Western Cuba. Look out!!!!!
Quoting HurriHistory:

Its still there. A massive Hurricane over Western Cuba. Look out!!!!!


300 hours out, quivering in my boots! :P
Quoting 241. HurriHistory:


Its still there. A massive Hurricane over Western Cuba. Look out!!!!!


Who cares?
Quoting 242. CybrTeddy:



300 hours out, quivering in my boots! :P


It could be 24 hours out and I wouldn't quiver in my boots this year.
Quoting 239. Gearsts:

What happen to 2015?


Apparently no hope for 2015 either...
Quoting 243. KoritheMan:



Who cares?
I would think most of the people that read this blog. That's what we are all here for anyway, is it not?
Quoting 246. HurriHistory:

I would think most of the people that read this blog. That's what we are all here for anyway, is it not?


Literally the only people that would care about ghost storms 300 hours out are those who need to learn about computer model nuances. Especially with ignorant statements like "Look out!!!". The system actually has to form first, or we have to at least be able to detect what it is the models are seeing in the first place.
Phanfone
Quoting 240. Drakoen:

Earliest snow on record for some places. Could we be in for another brutal winter?






The global models have been too quick since August to let go of the east coast continental ridging, but the front moving through the east now is likely a pattern-changing one. Maybe they were finally right.
Quoting 238. Andrebrooks:

Dear Atlantic Ocean,
Atlantic, I'm both disappointed and proud of you. I'm proud of you because you produced a major hurricane, I'm dissapointed that you're inactive this year. I expect more out of you in 2016. So get it together and do right.Have a blessed day.
Andre Brooks

Dear Andre Brooks,
I'm not doing much these days besides just sitting here so I have time to respond to your post. I'll try to find that hot water that I here is down deep and try to coax it more to the surface so you have something to watch. I'm not really inactive, I'm always moving and looking. Watch out....very high tide coming your way...j/k. Get's 'em every time.
Tsunami we talk again.
Atlantic Ocean
Quoting 238. Andrebrooks:

Dear Atlantic Ocean,
Atlantic, I'm both disappointed and proud of you. I'm proud of you because you produced a major hurricane, I'm dissapointed that you're inactive this year. I expect more out of you in 2016. So get it together and do right.Have a blessed day.
Andre Brooks


skipping a year no hurricanes...yay

phanfone looking monsterous
Quoting 248. Skyepony:

Phanfone



ooppss
Quoting 251. WaterWitch11:



skipping a year no hurricanes...yay

phanfong looking monsterous


Phanfong and Vongfone? :)

Don't feel bad. Even Dr. Masters made that mistake (see title).
Quoting Dakster:


Apparently no hope for 2015 either...
El Niño next year that's why.
Quoting CosmicEvents:

Dear Andre Brooks,
I'm not doing much these days besides just sitting here so I have time to respond to your post. I'll try to find that hot water that I here is down deep and try to coax it more to the surface so you have something to watch. I'm not really inactive, I'm always moving and looking. Watch out....very high tide coming your way...j/k. Get's 'em every time.
Tsunami we talk again.
Atlantic Ocean

Lol. And okay.
still.crying.ed?
I myself have been burned trusting 10 day Gulf storms shown developing in the Caribbean before the day 8 wave number truncation, aka the resolution lobotomy. Partly because the FIM-8 or FIM-9 supported the GFS so well. Until I read the FIM models use GFS physics and are initialized off an interpolation of the GFS initial conditions (interpolation because the FIM is not a spectral model). GFS physics, and therefore FIM physics, to save computing time/power, per a PhD student I'll call Phil Pepin, assumes all latent heat of condensation travels vertically, a decent assumption when shear is low, a bad assumption when shear is high, such that any persistent area of storms over tropical waters, say, along a persistent extension of the East Pac Monsoon trough into the Caribbean, will ultimately, in GFS land, become a warm core cyclone. No matter how hostile shear actually is.
259. vis0
CREDIT:: www.nrlmry.navy.mil (Monterey)
SUBJECT: "Tropical Atlantic" (checking for future Grothar blobs in GOMx)
CONTENT:: Water vapor (clr)
PERIOD::201410-03;0615_-04;0545

Quoting 259. vis0:

CREDIT:: www.nrlmry.navy.mil (Monterey)
SUBJECT: "Tropical Atlantic" (checking for future Grothar blobs in GOMx)
CONTENT:: Water vapor (clr)
PERIOD::201410-03;0615_-04;0545




I prefer CIMMS TPW, since WV imagery mainly shows moisture content in the upper levels. Notice super-mega cold front entering Gulf, that produced some pretty intense severe weather (mainly straight line winds, I saw a Twitter image of what might have been a gustnado) around DFW, and unlike most cold fronts that pass Houston, produced ballpark 3/4" of rain IMBY.

Most fronts produce just enough rain drops for the dust kicked up by the post frontal winds to stick to on automobiles.


Quoting 255. EdMahmoud:



Mentioned before, about half the GFS runs have had a significant storm in the Caribbean or Gulf after 12 or 13 days in the future. For over a month.

Someone I'll just call Caleb has me on ignore from August just for suggesting a GFS run with a Gulf hurricane on September 10th wasn't a sure bet to verify just because it was the peak climatological day of the season. He was insistent it would verify. Offered to bet money, even.

Someday, maybe not this year, there'll be a significant hurricane near where the GFS predicted it 13 or 16 days prior. But the trends, even in August, with shear and dry air, and how the GFS magically spun up something from nothing, I took the bet. We didn't specify money, and of course I don't expect that person to pay up even if we did.

Sad thing, rumor he is a met student...


Anyone can be a met student. Whether you can pass the classes successfully, graduate, and/or do something meaningful is a different story.
Quoting 261. Drakoen:



Anyone can be a met student. Whether you can pass the classes successfully, graduate, and/or do something meaningful is a different story.


And even if you get your degree, a job in the field is far from guaranteed.
this gfs is getting kinda scary,hope its really bogus...................................
264. vis0

Quoting 260. EdMahmoud:



I prefer CIMMS TPW, since WV imagery mainly shows moisture content in the upper levels. Notice super-mega cold front entering Gulf, that produced some pretty intense severe weather (mainly straight line winds, I saw a Twitter image of what might have been a gustnado) around DFW, and unlike most cold fronts that pass Houston, produced ballpark 3/4" of rain IMBY.

Most fronts produce just enough rain drops for the dust kicked up by the post frontal winds to stick to on automobiles.



i was told the same earlier in the year but figure it would be a 20 MB file per 24 hrs & at 56k its too long of a download. Being i highly respect your comments i chkD out the product. Not that large 7MB for 72 hrs


BUT what's this anomaly??? northwest of Central America on the Pac side (8N lat -90Long...W). Is the anomaly is man made (be it added or missing data) or natural. If man made purposely youtube (goog) called they want their logo over the oceans. Could that be the bat signal equivalent for signaling for SAR? Sar where are you?

BTW why do i stretch other posts images?(recently asked by personal email)
As posted in 2011/12?? to save scrolling time... (fingers, as scrolling is the mouse action that damages hands the most, that is  after punching wall when loading site slows down)  ...add tools to better view the pgs. Of the 3 tools i suggested 1 was similar to firefox addon titled "Image resizer/scaler" (https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/im age-resizer/?src=search) by Eliot Van Uytfanghe.

Images when re-posted on replys to orginal comments can be squeezed horizontally by WxU saving scrolling time (ads therefore are next  to more comments, which adds to the chance if seeing them for those that care of things like revenue) Then if a readers finds the re-post of interests and wants to view the image they "tap" the floating tool icon (floats alongside the scrolling bar) and then drags the images to the desired size/scale. If you get the addon try it on the squeezed image above, the addon has nice secret key tricks.,peace
Typhoon Phanfone

Typhoon Phanfone
Last Updated Oct 4, 2014 06 GMT
Location 26.4N 132.2E Movement NW
Wind 140 MPH
6Z GFS has it also....not liking this one bit............................................... .
Did you know that Phanfong can heavily influence the F1 race tommorow?
Link (best article I've found)
Basically,it can be so wet that race can be run whole behind safety car.
simon is still gaining strength,gee this area getting blasted once again huh.............
well IF this verifies..I get hit with a tropical storm..........................................
Quoting LargoFl:
6Z GFS has it also....not liking this one bit............................................... .


Still way too far out to take it serious. But what else do we have to watch in the Atlantic Basin?
If the time line keeps shrinking and we get something to form down in the western Caribbean it will be a threat.

But first we need to get something to actually form down in the western Caribbean. That's the first step.
Quoting 270. Sfloridacat5:



Still way too far out to take it serious. But what else do we have to watch in the Atlantic Basin?
If the time line keeps shrinking and we get something to form down in the western Caribbean it will be a threat.

But first we need to get something to actually form down in the western Caribbean. That's the first step.

yeah i understand, what worries me is, each run is in the same place,guess we just watch and wait huh.
Quoting LargoFl:
yeah i understand, what worries me is, each run is in the same place,guess we just watch and wait huh.


Yeah, if we had the GFS and Euro both showing a CAT3 hitting S. Florida in 3-5 days, it's time to get worried.
AKA - Hurricane Wilma

All the models were in agreement that Wilma was headed for S. Florida at least 5 days or more out. But Wilma was a massive hurricane in the Western Caribbean. That makes it a lot easier for the models.
Tampa, Central and East Central Florida would be on the dirty side of the storm. Along with North Florida.
Quoting LargoFl:
well IF this verifies..I get hit with a tropical storm..........................................
Quoting 273. hurricanewatcher61:

Tampa, Central and East Central Florida would be on the dirty side of the storm. Along with North Florida.
yes this really needs to be watched
well GFS has it forming around sat-sunday 11th or 12th...we'll see if it does form........
Wait and see right now. Remember earlier in the season how many times the GFS was trashing Florida with storms.
gfs has the Low way down there on the 11th.............................................
Haven't seen Sar or Stormjunkie. They are regular contributors. Agreed, hope they are ok.

Quoting 188. txjac:

Wow, fall has sprung ...even though it's just for a day or two ..lows in the upper 50's? I'll take it.

Only been popping in and out over the last couple of days ...however I haven't seen sar ...anyone seen him or have information on him?
Then again that's a pretty good area if something is going to get going.
So by next weekend we should get a hint if something is going to form?
It's a rainy Saturday down here in Fort Myers.
But so far only .18", but more on the way.

Oct. 4th and this is our first rain for the month.
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
So by next weekend we should get a hint if something is going to form?


Yeah for the GFS to materialize, we should see a low developing down in the S.W Caribbean late next week.
FWIW what the GFS shows is around the second peak of the hurricane season. If something does form that is about the time I'd expect it.
Hey Ed, knock it off already with Caleb. You provide great posts on here which I enjoy reading, but your behavior is not very becoming of someone in meteorology either. You disagree with him, fine, but let it go already. Thank you.
Well everyone enjoy there Saturday, time for some breakfast here. Catch everyone later.
anything can happen but id say most likely if it happens for it to move ne through the fl. straits following the warm gulf stream no room for vendettas on this blog ed
Simon is another storm with a pinhole eye structure.



Microwave shows the pinhole eye but you can already see a larger, concentric ring developing. The 5AM NHC discussion said a research flight would be going into SImon this afternoon, so it'll give us an idea of its intensity.

Front working its way through Florida. Nothing really to brag about. Most areas won't be seeing significant precipitation totals.

Not much on the ECWMF yet but more then yesterday
The good news is that even if something does form, in all likelihood we won't see a major. Now that the GOM temps are cooling off and the shear and dry air will be more prevalent. Phew.
Quoting 240. Drakoen:

Earliest snow on record for some places. Could we be in for another brutal winter?





But wait, it's Global Warming's fault. LOL!!
Hello folks. Gorgeous weather in the Alps today. Have a look at all these panoramic webcams with current views as long as sun is shining.


Click the screenshot.

Ah, wish I was there ...
Water temps are more than warm enough for a hurricane in the GOM.
More importantly the Caribbean is very warm. The Caribbean is where a system is going to develop if we do see anything get going.

When Wilma made landfall in S.W. Florida, the GOM was much cooler than it is now.

Quoting 294. Sfloridacat5:

When Wilma made landfall in S.W. Florida, the GOM was much cooler than it is now.

Wilma was a decaying hurricane, far from what she was at her peak when she impacted Florida. She had a ragged eye, and had weakened tremendously. The GOM might sustain a hurricane, but a major unlikely. The chances of seeing a category 4 or 5 are very slim now. If this wave had developed last month, I would be much much more worried.

These temps in this map I will post are still warm, but have cooled off dramatically since late Aug and Early Sept.


Quoting 240. Drakoen:

Earliest snow on record for some places. Could we be in for another brutal winter?






New England saying
"If ice in November will bear a duck.
there'll be nothing thereafter but slush and muck"


DC area BTW (all of it including metro core] had measurable snow on Oct 10, 1979. I feel old remembering when these records happened!
Good morning guys
I see we still have consistency and better agreement on W CARIB system

We have got

GFS
CMC/GEM
NOGAPS/NAVGEM
FIM Family
EURO (however EURO only hints at it and takes most of the energy to the EPAC) (We must remember EURO does poorly at forming storms but once we get fully established storm EURO does decently well)

It would be nice if we could see if one or two more models picking this up


We all have just make sure we are prepped just to be sure
My stuff is ready mostly
Just a day or two before the storm I'd need to grab a few small items from the store
Quoting CumberlandPlateau:

Wilma was a decaying hurricane, far from what she was at her peak when she impacted Florida. She had a ragged eye, and had weakened tremendously. The GOM might sustain a hurricane, but a major unlikely. The chances of seeing a category 4 or 5 are very slim now. If this wave had developed last month, I would be much much more worried.

These temps in this map I will post are still warm, but have cooled off dramatically since late Aug and Early Sept.




The GOM may not be able to sustain a Major but the Caribbean more so the W Caribbean and more so the NW Caribbean most definitely can support a Major
Quoting CumberlandPlateau:

Wilma was a decaying hurricane, far from what she was at her peak when she impacted Florida. She had a ragged eye, and had weakened tremendously. The GOM might sustain a hurricane, but a major unlikely. The chances of seeing a category 4 or 5 are very slim now. If this wave had developed last month, I would be much much more worried.

These temps in this map I will post are still warm, but have cooled off dramatically since late Aug and Early Sept.




As I mentioned. Anything that is to develop will need to do it in the Caribbean.

Also, Wilma stalled on the North Coast of the Yucatan. That helped to weaken the system. If Wilma had gone straight from the Western Caribbean towards Florida it would have been really bad. Wilma would have most likely been a CAT4/5 for sure.

Note that Wilma stalled over the northern Yucatan (weakened to a CAT2). That saved S. Florida from seeing a much stronger system. Also, Wilma actually strengthened before landfalling in S.W. Fl (from a CAT2 to a CAT3).

Wiki

Wilma emerged into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane. As Wilma began accelerating to the northeast, gradual re-intensification occurred, and the hurricane became a Category 3 hurricane on October 24. Shortly thereafter, Wilma made landfall in Cape Romano, Florida with winds of 120 mph (190 km/h).
Lol yeah wilma was much less intense then her peak but was not a decaying hurricane.
Wilma was strengthening at a pretty good clip when she made landfall in FL.
We can all lick our chops, wish, hope, and salivate that we will see something again like Wilma but I just don't think we will. The atmopsheric conditions are just not as favorable this year to sustain anything like we saw in 2005.
Quoting 304. CybrTeddy:

Wilma was strengthening at a pretty good clip when she made landfall in FL.

Still, she was only a 120 mph hurricane, and that was generous, as she probably was only 95 to 100mph sustained. If anything were to develop now, 100mph is probably the maximum we would see.
Quoting 288. Sfloridacat5:

Front working its way through Florida. Nothing really to brag about. Most areas won't be seeing significant precipitation totals.




Some areas close to the west coast in Central FL saw some respectable rain totals overnight, there are reports ranging from 1 to more than 3 inches. Sarasota/Bradenton for example has had 2.96 so far and rising, but the heavy rain totals don't go very far inland, its mainly an immediate coast heavy rain event.
Let's remember guys. This is October now. The temps and shear conditions are not exactly condusive for a strong hurricane, especially a major. I think a category 1 or 2 is definitely not out of the question though.

But if you are wanted a category 4 or 5, I just don't think you will see it Teddy or Wunderkid.
Quoting CaneWatcher1:
Lol yeah wilma was much less intense then her peak but was not a decaying hurricane.


Yeah, it would have been unreal if Wilma had made landfall in the U.S. at her full strength. I'm not sure how the Yucatan didn't get wiped off the map by Wilma.

Lil pinhole eye action, eh??


Quoting 310. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, it would have been unreal if Wilma had made landfall in the U.S. at her full strength. I'm not sure how the Yucatan didn't get wiped off the map by Wilma.



It is clear forecaster Avila exaggerated her peak intensity.
Euro has a weak system forming in the Caribbean and moving into the Gulf Day 9 and 10. Euro forecasted 250 mb winds in the Southern Gulf are generally 5 to 10 knots, or the Gulf wouldn't be a hostile place, based on wind shear, so perhaps this is the long range GFS that might verify.

The Western Gulf will be very dry, but where the weak system is, moisture looks decent, and with weak upper level winds, the dry air, even though nearby, may not impede development.

Trust me, nothing against Florida, I lived in the 32813, but a daytime landfall and Josh Morgerman or other chasers making awesome YouTube vids, been a long time for Florida. And they have great construction codes.
Better image of Wilma on Oct. 19th.
1 minute sustained winds of 185 mph (882mb).

Quoting 307. CumberlandPlateau:


Still, she was only a 120 mph hurricane, and that was generous, as she probably was only 95 to 100mph sustained. If anything were to develop now, 100mph is probably the maximum we would see.


I have to ask, did you experience WIlma firsthand? I did! I'm in West Boca, and we had the eye come right over us. I have gone through every hurricane that has struck South Florida from Andrew since, and I can tell you that Wilma was definitely the worst of all for us here. We definitely had sustained winds over 100 mph here in my area. So, if you yourself have some first-hand experience with the storm, feel free to share. Otherwise, perhaps its best not to preach to an audience where many actually were there!
Quoting 308. Jedkins01:



Some areas close to the west coast in Central FL saw some respectable rain totals overnight, there are reports ranging from 1 to more than 3 inches. Sarasota/Bradenton for example has had 2.96 so far and rising, but the heavy rain totals don't go very far inland, its mainly an immediate coast heavy rain event.


The front was for real. Thursday low to mid 90sF in SE Texas with DP in the mid 70s, morning low at IAH was a chilly 60ºF this morning and the dewpoint now is a very dry 50ºF. About 3/4 of an inch of rain with that front as well.

Good news return flow starts Sunday, and next week morning lows should be back into the 70s with mid to upper 80sF per NWS HGX. Sad news, Thursday was *probably* the last 90ºF (32º C) day of 2014 in Houston, although we'll get close later this week.
Quoting 307. CumberlandPlateau:


Still, she was only a 120 mph hurricane, and that was generous, as she probably was only 95 to 100mph sustained. If anything were to develop now, 100mph is probably the maximum we would see.


Not really, If anything, Wilma produced stronger winds than one might expect. The NHC doesn't just look at a storm and say "well ya now, this one's beautiful I guess we'll just be generous and make it a category 3".

Its a serious scientific conclusion based on measurement techniques both by direct an remote sensing. Hurricanes usually don't translate the maximum sustained winds that the NHC finds over water to land because the frictional coefficient simply reduces the wind. Sometimes rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones like Charley can overcome this issue more effectively due to the momentum of rapid intensification. However, for the most part, expect windspeed on land to notably less.

However, with that said, Wilma was far from an underachiever, Wilma actually produced winds stronger on land than hurricanes usually do compared to the windspeed on water. That is, the frictional reduction impacted it a bit less. It brought very impressive winds all the way to the east coast of FL. Wilma was most certainly a category 3.

Not only that, you can't go by wind reports either, that's not reliable. Its well documented that most wind obs fail before the strongest winds are achieved in a hurricane. Additionally, we don't have wind obs every few square miles, so we don't know how strong winds are in other areas. Wind speed in a hurricane is not uniform in rain bands or even in the eyewall. Damage survey's show that windspeed can be much stronger in some areas than other locally. Deep convection can help bring down the strongest winds that become elevated above the surface after landfall in the same way that convection will bring down damaging winds in a frontal severe outbreak.

In conclusion, there's a reason why the NHC determines intensity.
"Only 120 mph"?

My last hurricane was only a Cat 2, I'm almost 50 miles inland, HRD put max sustained winds only 80 to 90 mph in my neighborhood, and that is very loud, things hit the house, trees fall, power goes out for a week, a fair number of homes with roof damage, and one neighborhood gas station with a toppled whatever you call the thing that keeps rain off you when pumping gas.

I don't want to experience 120 mph in my own neighborhood. Florida has much better building codes, and up until 2005, were used to that kind of stuff. But regular people that don't live in the hurricane magnet state, 120 mph is too much.
Quoting 315. Sfloridacat5:

Better image of Wilma on Oct. 19th.
1 minute sustained winds of 185 mph (882mb).




I still speculate that Wilma reached 200 mph, given that it appeared to be peak in appearance between recon flights, not to say that 185 mph at 882 mb isn't a bit ridiculous either, lol.
South Florida Mainland
The highest wind gust across the mainland of south Florida during Wilma, 133
mph, was measured by a vessel on the south fork of the St. Lucie River in Martin County.
The Fowey Rocks C-MAN station offshore Key Biscayne measured 123 mph as the peak
gust. Along the southwest Florida coast near the landfall of the eye, observations were
sparse. There was a peak wind of 109 mph measured in Ochopee.
Based on observed wind gusts, assessments from the WFO Miami, and the
sustained wind analysis from HRD (Figure 7), estimated peak wind gusts were generally
near 100 mph along the southeast coast of Florida from West Palm Beach to Miami.
Higher gusts were observed further north and west with estimated peak wind gusts
generally between 110-120 mph from Stuart through the south end of Lake Okeechobee,
and southwest across the Everglades to the area of landfall (Figure 6). Peak wind gusts
were mainly from the southwest and south along the southwest coast of Florida and over
the Everglades, from the southeast, east, and northeast along the southeast coast of
Florida.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/data/pdfs/WilmaPSDA.pd f
323. DDR
Good afternoon
The moisture surge/itcz continues into the southern Caribbean/Venezuela,significant flooding/landslides in parts of Trinidad/north-east Tobago.
history of early october tropical cyclone formation

Quoting Jedkins01:


I still speculate that Wilma reached 200 mph, given that it appeared to be peak in appearance between recon flights, not to say that 185 mph at 882 mb isn't a bit ridiculous either, lol.


Had Wilma been in the WPAC she'd probably been close to Tip's record due to the pressure differences between the two basins. What's more, I'm willing to bet Haiyan was significantly stronger than both. That was the only storm I've ever seen where the eye was so defined that it caused "ghosting" on the satellite imagery to the right of the eye.

Quoting 293. barbamz:

Hello folks. Gorgeous weather in the Alps today. Have a look at all these panoramic webcams with current views as long as sun is shining.


Click the screenshot.

Ah, wish I was there ...


Perfect hiking weather today and hopefully also tomorrow! The weather was also ideal for the annual "Almabtrieb" which was celebrated today at the "Rettenbachalm" (a local alpine pasture) and many other places. There are around 500,000 cows in Austria (380,000 in Switzerland and 50,000 in Germany, wikipedia) which feed on pastures high up in the mountains during the summer. At the beginning of October trains of decorated cows return to their cow sheds. As I was writing this, a beautiful cow train heading to a nearby farm passed by my house, unfortunately I didn't notice until they were nearly gone so I wasn't able to take a picture. However, I found this on the website of the town I live in:

Almabtrieb in the Rettenbachalm
Pretty cool image of Hurricane Wilma as she was crossing South Florida showing radar estimated wind speeds in Knots.

NOUS42 KNHC 031232
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT FRI 03 OCTOBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z OCTOBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-125

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM SIMON
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43
A. 04/1730Z
B. NOAA3 0119E SIMON
C. 04/1545Z
D. 20.0N 114.1W
E. 04/1700Z TO 04/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX TROPICAL STORM
SIMON AT 05/1730Z NEAR 21.7N 116.1W
3. REMARKS: TASKING FOR 03/1730Z CANCELED BY NHC BECAUSE
OF A CLEARANCE PROBLEM


hurricane
Simone says...
Simon is not simple.

CoCoRaHS reports this morning show even the Twin Cities received a 0.1" of snow last night. The two reports in northern Wisconsin were near cities that reported power outages - the snow and rain accompanied wind gusts to 30 mph, with some leaves still on trees, it seems some branches came down on power lines.

I'm along the Lake Superior shoreline, so didn't see any snowflakes here. Seeing the first snowflakes in the areas that got snow last night usually doesn't happen until later in October.

www.cocorahs.org

Very strong waterspout 4 miles S.W. of Key West during Hurricane Wilma. Now that would send me looking for a hole in the sand.
saw a low of 35.5 here in central Illinois over night .. didn't see any frost by me but am sure lower lying areas had patchy frost !
Quoting 319. Jedkins01:



Not really, If anything, Wilma produced stronger winds than one might expect. The NHC doesn't just look at a storm and say "well ya now, this one's beautiful I guess we'll just be generous and make it a category 3".

Its a serious scientific conclusion based on measurement techniques both by direct an remote sensing. Hurricanes usually don't translate the maximum sustained winds that the NHC finds over water to land because the frictional coefficient simply reduces the wind. Sometimes rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones like Charley can overcome this issue more effectively due to the momentum of rapid intensification. However, for the most part, expect windspeed on land to notably less.

However, with that said, Wilma was far from an underachiever, Wilma actually produced winds stronger on land than hurricanes usually do compared to the windspeed on water. That is, the frictional reduction impacted it a bit less. It brought very impressive winds all the way to the east coast of FL. Wilma was most certainly a category 3.

Not only that, you can't go by wind reports either, that's not reliable. Its well documented that most wind obs fail before the strongest winds are achieved in a hurricane. Additionally, we don't have wind obs every few square miles, so we don't know how strong winds are in other areas. Wind speed in a hurricane is not uniform in rain bands or even in the eyewall. Damage survey's show that windspeed can be much stronger in some areas than other locally. Deep convection can help bring down the strongest winds that become elevated above the surface after landfall in the same way that convection will bring down damaging winds in a frontal severe outbreak.

In conclusion, there's a reason why the NHC determines intensity.


Jed, I have to agree with you. But I do believe there were much stronger winds, especially on the east coast, than were reported. The damage in North Broward and Palm Beach was tremendous. I don't normally write doomsday scenarios, but I've been through more hurricanes than I can count, including the eyewall of Andrew. Wilma had to have had sustained category 3 winds for at least a short while. Especially when the backside hit. The odd thing, is that the eye also went over us, but instead of the calm one would expect, there was never a break in the winds. As a matter of fact, it seems as if the winds became more tornadic. Look at this. It is fast, but look at the backside of the storm as it moves over the east coast.



Quoting 335. whitewabit:

saw a low of 35.5 here in central Illinois over night .. didn't see any frost by me but am sure lower lying areas had patchy frost !

Looks like Chicago had a few snowflakes in the air this morning too, mixed with the rain. Impressive. Scott's gonna call me out 'cause I said it was unlikely they'd see any, lol. Not the earliest on record, but early for sure.
Simon has been rapidly intensifying overnight and is now a 110 mph Category 2 hurricane. It may make a run at Category 4 strength tonight into tomorrow.
Plane will tell the real intensity this afternoon but Simon is doing RI now.


HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014

Infrared satellite imagery indicates that Simon has undergone rapid
intensification during the past several hours. A small eye has
formed, and the cloud tops surrounding the eye are in the -75C to
-85C range. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 102 kt
from TAFB and 90 kt from SAB, and the latest estimated from the
CIMSS ADT is 90 kt. Based on these, the initial intensity is
increased to 95 kt, and this could be conservative. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Simon later
today.

The initial motion is now 295/11. Simon is expected to move
west-northwest to northwestward for the next 36 hours or so as is
approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge to its north. After
that, the system is expected to turn northward and northeastward,
although there remains significant spread in the track guidance on
when and how fast this will occur. The GFS, GFS ensemble mean,
NAVGEM, and the GFDL show Simon moving quickly to the northeast,
eventually making landfall on the Baja California peninsula and in
northwestern Mexico. The ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models show the turn
occurring later and farther west, and these models forecast the
cyclone to dissipate over water west of the Baja California
peninsula. The forecast track continues to compromise between these
two extremes in showing a slow northeastward motion after
recurvature. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track
and is slower than the model consensus.

How long the current rapid intensification will continue is
uncertain, as Simon is now moving over decreasing sea surface
temperatures. The new intensity forecast follows the guidance trend
of showing 12 hours more strengthening. Simon is now forecast to
become a major hurricane, and it would not be a surprise if it
reached a higher peak intensity than currently forecast. After 12
hours, cooler waters under the forecast track should result in a
weakening trend, and this should become more pronounced after 48
hours due to increasing shear. The new intensity forecast shows
rapid weakening after 48 hours, with Simon expected to become a
remnant low by the end of the forecast period. It should be noted
that, if Simon follows the GFS forecast track, it would likely
weaken more slowly than currently forecast since it would stay over
warmer water and encounters less shear.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 20.2N 113.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 21.0N 115.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 22.2N 116.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 23.1N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 23.7N 117.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 336. Grothar:



Jed, I have to agree with you. But I do believe there were much stronger winds, especially on the east coast, than were reported. The damage in North Broward and Palm Beach was tremendous. I don't normally write doomsday scenarios, but I've been through more hurricanes than I can count, including the eyewall of Andrew. Wilma had to have had sustained category 3 winds for at least a short while. Especially when the backside hit. The odd thing, is that the eye also went over us, but instead of the calm one would expect, there was never a break in the winds. As a matter of fact, it seems as if the winds became more tornadic. Look at this. It is fast, but look at the backside of the storm as it moves over the east coast.






I remember hearing a lot of people mention the west side of the storm being more severe both at landfall and along the ecoast. I'll look up Dr M's blog from then as he usually has a pretty good list of worst conditions from a given system. 130-135 is what I recall hearing in the strongest gusts. It blew to about 50-60 here in Englewood. It was an impressive storm considering it sat over land for so long.
Phanfone is getting that high latitude look. "Unraveling" as the new JTWC advisory says. It's still powerful though (110kts) and will likely pass over or just east of Tokyo in 24-36 hours as it continues to weaken and become extratropical.

Quoting 338. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Simon has been rapidly intensifying overnight and is now a 110 mph Category 2 hurricane. It may make a run at Category 4 strength tonight into tomorrow.
those poor people in baja goin to get hit again.......
Quoting 315. Sfloridacat5:
Better image of Wilma on Oct. 19th.
1 minute sustained winds of 185 mph (882mb).



During that image time-frame,we had a huge south-west swell here in G.Cayman.It was actually quite a scare to wake up to see the overnight intensification as it was.Plus everyone was somewhat gun-shy from Ivan just 13 months prior, as you'd appreciate
These were figures Dr M posted, but I do believe I saw 133 as the strongest gust.

Miami: 67 gust 91 8:30am
West Palm Beach: 82 gust 100 9:10 am
Fort Lauderdale: 69 gust 96 10:53 am
Pompano Beach: 83 gust 120 mph 8:48 am
Alligator Alley, west of US 27: 85 gust 104 8:19 am
Grand Bahama: 95 gust 111 12:00 pm
Naples: 80 gust 97 8:30 am
Key Largo: 101 gust 123 8:00 am

And some peak wind gusts:
Naples EMO: 121 mph
Ochopee, Collier County: 105 mph
Everglades City: 97 mph
Opa Locka: 105 mph
Everglades National Park: 112 mph
Doral: 111 mph
National Hurricane Center: 104 mph
Boynton Beach: 103 mph
Quoting 330. hurricanes2018:



hurricane
im watching this one closely,if it verifies it goes right over me.
Quoting 344. LargoFl:

those poor people in baja goin to get hit again.......


not really its forcast too be a weak TD by then




they are safe for now
Where's the rain?
The front is coming through southern Florida relatively dry. I was hoping for a good soaking here in Fort Myers.
any ways are any of the forecast model runs showing any more storms in the E PAC after this or is the E PAC going too start winding on down after this starting too get a little un likey will get too the Z storm we may get too T but not Z
Well the GFS has moved up (earlier) the time frame for the possible system.
Yesterday it was showing the system S.W. of Florida at 300 hours.
This morning the system is in the same place at 276 hours.

So we'll wait and see what future runs show.

Quoting LargoFl:


Funny we posted the same thing at the same time.
It definitely appears that Simon has rapidly intensified overnight and is more than likely now a 110 mph Category 2 hurricane. Barring anything like shear or dry air entrainment (which isn't forecasted at the moment), it may easily be flirting with Category 4 strength later tonight into tomorrow.

Quoting 353. Sfloridacat5:



Funny we posted the same thing at the same time.
lol yeah..im going to follow this gfs storm if i see it say the same oh next friday,im getting ready to prepare..but thats just me..i dont like how the model shows it coming ashore close to me lol.
Quoting 348. Tazmanian:



not really its forcast too be a weak TD by then




they are safe for now

Not if the GFS solution pans out.

Quoting 349. Sfloridacat5:

Where's the rain?
The front is coming through southern Florida relatively dry. I was hoping for a good soaking here in Fort Myers.

I got alot of rain real early this morning,started in ernest around 2am, was realy heavy it woke me up,and continued thru the morning hours off and on..bet its over an inch,maybe 2,drove to the store and the water was alot on the roadways...sort of clearing now here
Quoting 358. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Not if the GFS solution pans out.



Let's see if the NHC buys into the GFS a bit more. More importantly, I think consistency is key when analyzing a particular model run of an established system's trajectory and strength.
Quoting 340. GatorWX:



I remember hearing a lot of people mention the west side of the storm being more severe both at landfall and along the ecoast. I'll look up Dr M's blog from then as he usually has a pretty good list of worst conditions from a given system. 130-135 is what I recall hearing in the strongest gusts. It blew to about 50-60 here in Englewood. It was an impressive storm considering it sat over land for so long.



What I remember most, was the day before most of the news reports said that it would most likely be a "rain event" by the time it got to the east coast. Even though we live right on the water, there were no evacuation orders on the east coast because they expected any surge to move away from the coast. The only evacuation orders I remember were some for the keys and of course some low lying areas on the west coast. There would have been no place for anyone to evacuate to. Most evacuation orders are for flood prone areas anyway. Although in a Cat 4 or 5 anyone would try and move as far inland as possible anyway. Not much you can do with wind. With more than 8 million people in this area, it would have been impossible to move anyway. We were told to stay put. That is exactly what we did, stay put and scream for 6 hours.
12Z GFS is starting up
What I remember most, was the day before most of the news reports said that it would most likely be a "rain event" by the time it got to the east coast. Even though we live right on the water, there were no evacuation orders on the east coast because they expected any surge to move away from the coast. The only evacuation orders I remember were some for the keys and of course some low lying areas on the west coast. There would have been no place for anyone to evacuate to. Most evacuation orders are for flood prone areas anyway. Although in a Cat 4 or 5 anyone would try and move as far inland as possible anyway. Not much you can do with wind. With more than 8 million people in this area, it would have been impossible to move anyway. We were told to stay put. That is exactly what we did, stay put and scream for 6 hours.



and the best coverage of the storm....was by the love docs.....a radio talk show
Euro has a Day 9/10 Caribbean heading towards the Gulf system, weak, Western Gulf is bone dry, but 250 mb winds 10 to 15 knots over the disturbance, mid level moisture looks decent.

Or, a post resolution 15 day GFS cyclone from a few days ago might actually verify, as it does have some reliable model support.

Although the Euro was forecasting an African wave to become a TD near the Cape Verde islands, which didn't happen, and 9 and 10 days pushes even the Euro. But the Euro has superior resolution, a much more advanced initialization scheme, and better model physics. ECMWF runs a lot fewer models than NCEP, so they don't have to cut corners because of limits on computation capacity.

Support from the Euro ensembles, although it looks like many of the members are West of the operational at Day 10.



Half resolution Euro ensemble control, the ensemble member run with identical initial conditions to the op Euro weaker and further West, or the ensembles being West of the op may be a function of having half the resolution. I was looking because usually the EPS control matches the op Euro, and runs out 15 days, and I wanted to see where the forecast landfall point would be. EPS control has a different Caribbean to Gulf weak system in 13-14 days, but that can't be trusted this far out
Right front quadrant being stronger, usually, but not always. Strongest winds/highest damage in Hurricane Celia, a Cat 3 likely to be upgraded to a Cat 4 on reanalysis based on official winds at CRP NWS being just below Cat 4 strength, was in the South eyewall of a Western moving system.

Most of the downed trees in my neighborhood after Ike were blown down to the East, or by West winds, although perhaps the heavy rains had softened the ground so they were easier to topple later rather than earlier.
Interesting..

rapidly intensifying for hurricane Simon
The Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Depression Two is out.

Link
The GFS entertains again!.If it keeps this up it'll win a Oscar!
I wrote a blog on the September rain totals and impacts here in Eastern Central Florida. Posted some cute swamp pony flood pics in there as well.

Nice to see Phanfang losing strength. Got some good sat passes lastnight at peak..

Here's an Aqua..

The Bay of Bengal & South China Sea will have to be watched in the coming week with both the GFS/CMC showing storms forming in both:





The UKMET is also on board:



And the Euro is on board (albeit weaker) too:


12Z NAM at 84 hours has a developing Low in the southern Caribbean.
The question is will it be pulled north into the nice and warm western Caribbean?

Quoting EdMahmoud:
Euro has a Day 9/10 Caribbean heading towards the Gulf system, weak, Western Gulf is bone dry, but 250 mb winds 10 to 15 knots over the disturbance, mid level moisture looks decent.

Or, a post resolution 15 day GFS cyclone from a few days ago might actually verify, as it does have some reliable model support.

Although the Euro was forecasting an African wave to become a TD near the Cape Verde islands, which didn't happen, and 9 and 10 days pushes even the Euro. But the Euro has superior resolution, a much more advanced initialization scheme, and better model physics. ECMWF runs a lot fewer models than NCEP, so they don't have to cut corners because of limits on computation capacity.

Support from the Euro ensembles, although it looks like many of the members are West of the operational at Day 10.



Half resolution Euro ensemble control, the ensemble member run with identical initial conditions to the op Euro weaker and further West, or the ensembles being West of the op may be a function of having half the resolution. I was looking because usually the EPS control matches the op Euro, and runs out 15 days, and I wanted to see where the forecast landfall point would be. EPS control has a different Caribbean to Gulf weak system in 13-14 days, but that can't be trusted this far out


We must remember that EURO does poorly when it comes to developing storms but EURO does really well when it comes to well established storms

Quoting ncstorm:
Interesting..


Yes very interesting indeed

Another thing 06Z GFS shows a second system developing in the SW CARIB after the first one leaves out within the 300-384hrs mark
Quoting 370. washingtonian115:

The GFS entertains again!.If it keeps this up it'll win a Oscar!


I think you're right, Washi. The category will be "Best Comedy of the Year"
So far 12Z GFS
96hrs low in SW CARIB


12Z GFS is starting up again!! maybe a fake storm from the gfs again
Quoting 375. Grothar:



I think you're right, Washi. The category will be "Best Comedy of the Year"
I'll be right there to cheer it on!.
Quoting 376. wunderkidcayman:

So far 12Z GFS
96hrs low in SW CARIB


th
The earlier the GFS sees something, but better the chance it will verify. GFS 120 hour 500 mb heights suggests anything in the SW Caribbean will cross Central America.

It is getting to the time of year that instead of West toward colder water and slow death in the Pacific, that systems crossing Nicaragua may get recurved into Mexico and maybe visit the SW US or Texas as a mid-level system.

12Z GFS
144hrs
SW CARIB storm start to ramp
I think most of the reliable models are predicting some development in the Caribbean next week. With these fronts coming in, it has a tendency to change the atmosphere quite a bit, which is why there is often a slight uptick in activity in mid-October. At this time of year, it is not uncommon for a system in the Caribbean to move into the Gulf and move east. I think the odds of development are stronger on this system than others we have all seen this season.

Quoting EdMahmoud:
th
The earlier the GFS sees something, but better the chance it will verify. GFS 120 hour 500 mb heights suggests anything in the SW Caribbean will cross Central America.

It is getting to the time of year that instead of West toward colder water and slow death in the Pacific, that systems crossing Nicaragua may get recurved into Mexico and maybe visit the SW US or Texas as a mid-level system.



Nah
Quoting 309. CumberlandPlateau:

Let's remember guys. This is October now. The temps and shear conditions are not exactly condusive for a strong hurricane, especially a major. I think a category 1 or 2 is definitely not out of the question though.

But if you are wanted a category 4 or 5, I just don't think you will see it Teddy or Wunderkid.


For this season that might end up correct, but this is most certainly false, especially for the Western Caribbean, in fact, October is one of the most dangerous months for this area of the world & south Florida especially...
Link



According to Blake et al (2007), October is nearly tied for most dangerous month (in terms of just major hurricanes) in southwest Florida, and October features the 2nd most major hurricane hits to Florida (10), 2nd to only September (19). Georgia & South Carolina feature equivalent numbers of landfalls in Aug, Sept, & Oct (1 & 2 respectively). The US coast from Texas to Maine has experienced 96 hurricane landfalls since record keeping began in 1851 & October is the 3rd highest month in accordance w/ major hurricane landfalls (16) behind August & September (30 & 44 respectively)...
Link

The reason for the increase in strike probability in southwest Florida in particular in October stems from the fact that once the Cape Verde season quiets down, the induced anomalous near surface westerlies that can be prevalent in the eastern-central Caribbean as result of general activity further to the north & east associated w/ Cape Verde atoms, thus promoting unfavorable surface divergence in this region, & the focus of upward motion shifts into this area of the world. Additionally, due to higher tropopause heights in the deep tropics, storms possess the capability to more readily evacuate & re-distribute mass (air) & achieve remarkably low minimum central pressures in light of other climatologically favorable conditions at play.

All category 5 Hurricanes in October or later in the Atlantic have occurred in this portion of the basin...

Aforementioned Category Hurricane Wilma (Oct 2005)


Category 5 Hurricane Mitch (Oct 1998)


Category 5 Hurricane Hattie (Oct 1961)


Category 5 Cuba Hurricane (Oct-Nov 1932)


Category 5 Cuba Hurricane (Oct 1924)
NOAA plane is flying towards Simon. It departed from San Diego.

URPN15 KWBC 041611
NOAA3 0119E SIMON HDOB 01 20141004
160200 2403N 11021W 0040 00084 0139 +289 +228 038002 004 /// /// 03
160230 2402N 11022W 9900 00214 0140 +276 +220 079004 004 /// /// 03
160300 2401N 11023W 9705 00393 0142 +267 +206 103004 006 /// /// 03
160330 2400N 11025W 9432 00642 0141 +250 +195 127008 009 /// /// 03
160400 2359N 11026W 9190 00870 0140 +240 +182 136006 007 /// /// 03
160430 2357N 11027W 8833 01217 0140 +216 +173 147010 013 /// /// 03
160500 2356N 11027W 8535 01513 0137 +199 +163 130013 015 /// /// 03
160530 2354N 11027W 8311 01742 0136 +185 +150 129016 018 /// /// 03
160600 2352N 11027W 8069 01993 0138 +167 +132 141020 021 /// /// 03
160630 2350N 11027W 7830 02249 0132 +156 +123 149022 023 /// /// 03
160700 2349N 11027W 7589 02514 0129 +144 +105 144022 023 /// /// 03
160730 2347N 11026W 7403 02722 0130 +128 +098 139022 022 /// /// 03
160800 2345N 11026W 7179 02978 0126 +116 +088 131023 024 /// /// 03
160830 2344N 11026W 7082 03089 0120 +112 +078 127026 026 /// /// 03
160900 2342N 11026W 7075 03093 0119 +110 +080 130027 028 /// /// 03
160930 2340N 11026W 7097 03069 0120 +107 +091 134026 027 /// /// 03
161000 2338N 11026W 7074 03098 0121 +106 +092 132026 026 /// /// 03
161030 2336N 11026W 7098 03074 0128 +104 +092 131024 025 /// /// 03
161100 2334N 11026W 7083 03090 0126 +105 +088 128025 025 /// /// 03
161130 2332N 11026W 7071 03105 0125 +106 +080 132025 025 /// /// 03
Quoting Grothar:
I think most of the reliable models are predicting some development in the Caribbean next week. With these fronts coming in, it has a tendency to change the atmosphere quite a bit, which is why there is often a slight uptick in activity in mid-October. At this time of year, it is not uncommon for a system in the Caribbean to move into the Gulf and move east. I think the odds of development are stronger on this system than others we have all seen this season.


Agreed
There is risk of a tropical cyclone formation in the Mediterranean Sea tomorrow, italian WRF of the University of L'Aquila sees a sharply tropical transition of a North African low and a subsequent intensification when it moves toward Southern Italy.





Quoting Stefaneik:
There is risk of a tropical cyclone formation in the Mediterranean Sea tomorrow, italian WRF of the University of L'Aquila sees a sharply tropical transition of a North African low and a subsequent intensification when it moves toward Southern Italy.







That looks like a surprisingly potent hurricane for the Mediterranean Sea.
Quoting 240. Drakoen:

Earliest snow on record for some places. Could we be in for another brutal winter?




If this pattern sticks it will be.
And by next Sat
A TD or weak TS in the W CARIB

So far that is
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not if the GFS solution pans out.



Not a lot of model support for that solution. ECMWF kills it before it ever gets close to Baja California.



Quoting 390. CybrTeddy:



Not a lot of model support for that solution. ECMWF kills it before it ever gets close to Baja California.





Notice that the ECMWF is also considerably farther west--meaning a track over colder water and into drier air. If Simon takes the track the GFS suggests, colder water won't be an issue and it will be able to maintain strength more efficiently.
Quoting 389. wunderkidcayman:

And by next Sat
A TD or weak TS in the W CARIB

So far that is
A weak T.D or T.S is not "ramping up".
Quoting 349. Sfloridacat5:

Where's the rain?
The front is coming through southern Florida relatively dry. I was hoping for a good soaking here in Fort Myers.



Yeah this front was rather selective, we had 80% rain chances here in Tallahassee with a general expectation of 0.50-0.75 widespread. It turns out only very localized regions saw heavy rains. The airport officially saw no measurable rain, and I saw only 0.17 at my apartment. Not very impressive. There was a decent line of thunderstorms approaching, but it fell apart as it approached the area.

It came back together further south into Central Florida, bringing about 0.50-1.50 across a good portion of Central Florida. Some places had locally over 3 inches, SRQ just south of Tampa had 2.96. My parents in Pinellas had 1.02 last night.

Sadly, it poofed out again this morning down into your area like it did up here.
Quoting 362. Grothar:




What I remember most, was the day before most of the news reports said that it would most likely be a "rain event" by the time it got to the east coast. Even though we live right on the water, there were no evacuation orders on the east coast because they expected any surge to move away from the coast. The only evacuation orders I remember were some for the keys and of course some low lying areas on the west coast. There would have been no place for anyone to evacuate to. Most evacuation orders are for flood prone areas anyway. Although in a Cat 4 or 5 anyone would try and move as far inland as possible anyway. Not much you can do with wind. With more than 8 million people in this area, it would have been impossible to move anyway. We were told to stay put. That is exactly what we did, stay put and scream for 6 hours.


I was surprised at the level of surge in the Keys. This was after the majority of winds and extreme weather had already passed. 8-9' recorded in some spots. Key West was even hit particularly hard as most of you likely know.




Doesn't take much to flood Key West...



...or any of the Keys for that matter. Seafloor geography is a big deal over on this side, especially around the Keys.



A "rain event". Lol That's unfortunate! Not too many credible meteorologists on TV anymore. Given the speed it was moving, the size and structure it had, 110-120 mph winds on the day of and the day before, to make that assumption was pure ignorance.
Simon has begun to level off.

Eye has filled in some and convection has warmed a good deal.

We'll the GFS has backed the time up some more. Now it's down to 252 hours (yesterday 18z was 300 hours).

It's still way out there, but it's getting closer.
You can also see the freezing line down to Arkansas from the front coming down.
If a storm did form, it would most likely ride up the front and bring cooler air in behind it (like Wilma did).



its raining here in new haven,conn
12z Navgem at 156 hours is moving the low north..still running..

Quoting 397. Sfloridacat5:

We'll the GFS has backed the time up some more. Now it's down to 252 hours (yesterday 18z was 300 hours).

It's still way out there, but it's getting closer.



Technically it shows development within 6-7 days. It's going to be a "show me the money" type deal though. The GFS has been such garbage this year that I don't think it will be possible to accept the idea until it actually starts happening. The Caribbean has been closed all year, it's hard to believe it'll just suddenly open up now. Not that it can't, but it's not the most likely scenario.

168 hours

Let me know when it's in the 00hr.
the only thing that has been consistent this year for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season is bloggers using the word "Garbage"..
Oh em gee! It's gonna go right over my town!



"Only" 264 hours out now.
That would be something to see. A storm crosses Florida and intensifies as it moves up the Eastcoast.
i saw lightning outside
Quoting 404. Drakoen:

Let me know when it's in the 00hr.


Then it'll be too late! :)
Quoting GatorWX:


Then it'll be too late! :)


You're in the eye.


hurricane Simon a potential threat to Mexico's Baja Peninsula
402. MAweatherboy1
Well we could have something like Ida if the GFS were to be correct.But This is post 2010 and these things seem to not cooperate even when given favorable conditions.
Quoting 359. LargoFl:

I got alot of rain real early this morning,started in ernest around 2am, was realy heavy it woke me up,and continued thru the morning hours off and on..bet its over an inch,maybe 2,drove to the store and the water was alot on the roadways...sort of clearing now here


You probably got around 2 inches. My parent's got 1.02 and live a few miles east of you, based on on radar storm total, Largo had near double what they had, rainfall was heaviest right near the beach and dropped off further east.
last frame at 180 hours..

I'm out..we have Riverfest (street fair) this weekend in Wilmington..plenty of funnel cake and greasy food..thank goodness I purge on the weekend in eating unhealthy but I'll wont be happy come Monday in the gym..

Quoting 387. CybrTeddy:



That looks like a surprisingly potent hurricane for the Mediterranean Sea.


Sigh, and tomorrow I won't be near a computer to watch. Save some pics for me if something develops, folks, please ..
GFS will bring temperatures in the 40s down into the northern GOM after this possible tropical system.
Quoting 402. MAweatherboy1:


Technically it shows development within 6-7 days. It's going to be a "show me the money" type deal though. The GFS has been such garbage this year that I don't think it will be possible to accept the idea until it actually starts happening. The Caribbean has been closed all year, it's hard to believe it'll just suddenly open up now. Not that it can't, but it's not the most likely scenario.




The GFS hasn't been complete garbage, I mean if you're referring to persistence in long term cyclone generation, then yes. But a model can't be evaluated based only on that. I generally don't pay attention to long term guidance for anything more than a laugh anyway.

Quoting 386. Stefaneik:

There is risk of a tropical cyclone formation in the Mediterranean Sea tomorrow, italian WRF of the University of L'Aquila sees a sharply tropical transition of a North African low and a subsequent intensification when it moves toward Southern Italy.








That would be wild if that happened.
GFS 12Z certainly moving down the timeline

I'm throwing money into the pot but still not putting all my money in yet

I think if this contiue I may just do so on Wednesday
Quoting 410. Sfloridacat5:



You're in the eye.


Time to get the hurricane party plans in place!
Fall is off to a strong and cold start..
Quoting 415. barbamz:



Sigh, and tomorrow I won't be near a computer to watch. Save some pics for me if something develops, folks, please ..


You know we got your back Barb! Doesn't look like much going on atm in the sats I've checked out.



This does not look like early October.
Plane getting closer to Simons eye.

Quoting 423. hydrus:




This does not look like early October.
It looks like those CPC maps are about to be wrong.CWG commented on reasons why they think we'll be wetter and cooler than September.
Quoting 422. GatorWX:



You know we got your back Barb! Doesn't look like much going on atm in the sats I've checked out.



Well, GFS has a little circulation off the northern coast of Sicily/the western coast of south Italy (= Thyrrenian Sea) in the offing for Monday. Hopefully I'll be back then :-)
Quoting 401. Jedkins01:







So what's your point?
If that system that is expected to become a hurricane and affect Italy will it be named from the Atlantic list
Quoting 423. hydrus:




This does not look like early October.

Yeah? Well what does it look like?
Quoting 336. Grothar:



Jed, I have to agree with you. But I do believe there were much stronger winds, especially on the east coast, than were reported. The damage in North Broward and Palm Beach was tremendous. I don't normally write doomsday scenarios, but I've been through more hurricanes than I can count, including the eyewall of Andrew. Wilma had to have had sustained category 3 winds for at least a short while. Especially when the backside hit. The odd thing, is that the eye also went over us, but instead of the calm one would expect, there was never a break in the winds. As a matter of fact, it seems as if the winds became more tornadic. Look at this. It is fast, but look at the backside of the storm as it moves over the east coast.






Well that's the thing, the NHC doesn't simply drop the strength of its winds because there aren't reports showing what strength they have it as. Imagine if we started pretending that severe level winds didn't exist during a severe weather outbreak with tornadoes and damaging winds simply because those level winds didn't pass over an official reporting station.

As silly and ridiculous as that sounds, that's how many people evaluate hurricanes many times from what I've seen here. They act as if only what windspeeds were at official reporting stations matter. As I said, not only due official reporting stations fail before the strongest winds arrive, especially in major hurricanes, but that wind is simply not uniform, and so its very easy for the strongest winds to not occur at the official obs. The worst wind damage in Wilma did not occur by any means at the official obs, not to mention some of the obs failed in the eywall.

Imagine if we rated Charley, Andrew, or Hayan only by official obs, how ridiculous would that be.

BTW, I hypothesize that the reason Wilma was stronger on the backside was that there was strong cold front right behind Wilma, as cold high pressure was rapidly building in, this produced a tighter pressure gradient on the backside of the hurricane than the front side due to the close proximity of the very high pressures of the Canadian high with the very low pressure of the hurricane.

In fact, wind gusts got all the way into the 40-50 mph range all the way up into the Tampa Bay area, even as the front came through and Wilma exited the coast.

949.3 millibars in the eye of Simon. Flight-level winds of 114kt, surface winds of 84kt so far. Higher winds should be found in the eastern semicircle.

16.7C eye temperature as well.

Probably not completely tropical at this point with lots of cold air on the west side of the system.
Just day dreaming the event.
Extremely tight RMW

Quoting 433. Stormchaser2007:

Extremely tight RMW



Eye is 7nm in diameter.
Quoting 432. Sfloridacat5:

Probably not completely tropical at this point with lots of cold air on the west side of the system.
Just day dreaming the event.

If only this was December or January..But it could be a harbinger for things to come later this fall and winter.I doubt it's going to play out this way.
If i'm looking at this correctly, there does look to be an anticyclone where the projected GFS cyclone originates at 168 hrs.

A Few Clouds

76°F

24°C

Humidity43%
Wind SpeedNW 12 G 17 mph
Barometer29.96 in (1014.4 mb)
Dewpoint52°F (11°C)
Visibility10.00 mi


Last Update on 4 Oct 12:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

It feels perfect.
run after run,repeatedly,a hurricane for florida...stay alert florida...........................
2014 now ties 1992 for the highest number of major hurricanes in the East Pacific in the historical database.

HURRICANE SIMON TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014


...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SIMON HAS BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE...

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SIMON HAS
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115
MPH...185 KM/H...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT
IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. THIS MAKES SIMON THE EIGHTH MAJOR
HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------- -
LOCATION...20.3N 114.6W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM WNW OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Mount Ontake’s ashes yield four more bodies as search teams race to beat typhoon
Japan Times, Kyodo, JIJI, Oct 4, 2014
... According to the Meteorological Agency, the areas around Mount Ontake were expected to get between 100 mm and 150 mm of rain in a 24-hour period through Monday morning. The rain is expected to intensify Sunday as Phanfone draws closer. ...
Quoting unknowncomic:
If i'm looking at this correctly, there does look to be an anticyclone where the projected GFS cyclone originates at 168 hrs.


Yep correct
Well the tropics are very interesting at the moment and look set to stay that way for a few weeks. Every northern hemisphere basin might have a system going at the same time which would be pretty cool (North Indian Ocean, West Pacific, East Pacific and *gasp* even the North Atlantic).

And just for the giggles:



CMC showing an active wave train in the long range.



And a potential subtropical storm hitting France. xD
well IF..by next sunday or monday this hurricane IS coming,then you only have a few days to prepare end of next week folks..geez i sure hope its bogus but run after run it hits in the same place..near or right over my area..we'll see in a week...I really dont need this right now lol
Quoting 439. LargoFl:

run after run,repeatedly,a hurricane for florida...stay alert florida...........................
Remember when Florida was suppose to "stay alert" of Cristobal as well?.Hahaha...
Quoting 426. barbamz:




Well, GFS has a little circulation off the northern coast of Sicily/the western coast of south Italy (= Thyrrenian Sea) in the offing for Monday. Hopefully I'll be back then :-)

Did Berlin give this a Low name or is this out of their area of naming..
We are starting to see some other models come on board for development. The GFS is finally moving up the timeline and well to be honest, development in the Western Caribbean in October is normal

To cast it aside because of 2014, could be a bit premature. Will be interesting to see how this progresses
Gem model shows an active Atlantic in 2 weeks...............................
Quoting 446. PedleyCA:


Did Berlin give this a Low name or is this out of their area of naming..


Let's have a look, Pedley ... Here the map for tomorrow: Mrs. "Joanna" all over the place. Maybe the Italian circulation will form from a cut off low from Joanna (which isn't something unusual; last year some of those circulations in the Med had been persistent for weeks, without being a 'cane):



Edit: Hmm, looking at this current sat pic, you can already see some gathering of severe weather in the area of Sicily . So it's not Joanna.



Hello.
so far on this early run, looks like center goes into sarasota/ft meyers area.....................
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 4 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Simon, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
July 1 – Sept 11 73 day season. Wow this global warming is getting out of control.
Quoting 448. LargoFl:

Gem model shows an active Atlantic in 2 weeks...............................
notting happern!!
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT OCT 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AT 04/1500 UTC HURRICANE SIMON WAS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 113.8W
MOVING WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT. SIMON HAS INTENSIFIED
RAPIDLY...AND ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 966 MB WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115
KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
WITHIN 75 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. SWELLS GENERATED BY
SIMON MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.
Quoting 453. Autistic2:

July 1 – Sept 11 73 day season. Wow this global warming is getting out of control.

????
Quoting 426. barbamz:




Well, GFS has a little circulation off the northern coast of Sicily/the western coast of south Italy (= Thyrrenian Sea) in the offing for Monday. Hopefully I'll be back then :-)

The low pressure is actually overland in Tunisia in a quite dry environment, we must wait until it emerges over the sea tonight or at least tomorrow morning to see how it develop.

440. Simon marks 9 -- 1992 had 10.
Quoting 447. Hurricanes101:

We are starting to see some other models come on board for development. The GFS is finally moving up the timeline and well to be honest, development in the Western Caribbean in October is normal

To cast it aside because of 2014, could be a bit premature. Will be interesting to see how this progresses

Model fatigue.
Quoting 450. Thrawst:

Hello.
Hi.
Second pass this one from SE to NW coming shortly.


Quoting 460. CybrTeddy:

440. Simon marks 9 -- 1992 had 10.


Ekeka and Iniki were in Central Pacific. Eastern pacific had 8. Simons marks the 8th major hurricane in the eastern pacific and the 9th in the all season, because Genevieve became a major hurricane in the central pacific.



low 1003MB
Quoting 461. sporteguy03:


Model fatigue.


Yea, I understand that. I ripped the GFS just a few days ago for what it was showing, but that is because it kept showing it in the 360 hour timeframe and not moving forward. Now it is moving forward the timeline consistently; which leads me to believe it a bit more

As I said before, a hurricane forming in the Western Caribbean in October is certainly not out of the question no matter how active the rest of the season has been or continues to be.

Whether we have had only 5 storms or had 15 storms to date has no impact whatsoever on whether something forms going forward.
Quoting 455. LargoFl:




Mildly surprised a climatology forecast in October would still be to the Northwest, also I assume climatology is a bit like an ensemble, if more storms than not don't recurve, then it'll show Simon heading to sea.

October can be a dry month here in SETX, but some years that are El Nino (and this may not be an official El Nino, but it has a very 1997 feel) indirectly affect Texas with Pacific action.
Quoting sporteguy03:

Model fatigue.


GFS Cry Wolf Syndrome
It's a medical condition brought on by following the GFS long term model runs. It has been known to cause all sorts of related medical problems.
I'd say Cristobal was a close call. Much closer than the final track suggests. If Cristobal made it just a little further westward before the anomalous trough picked it up it would have benefited from an anticyclone and would have been an intensifying hurricane at landfall somewhere on the CONUS.

At least that is my memory of it. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

Quoting 445. washingtonian115:

Remember when Florida was suppose to "stay alert" of Cristobal as well?.Hahaha...
Quoting 439. LargoFl:

run after run,repeatedly,a hurricane for florida...stay alert florida...........................


GFS has the ability to be consistent, and still be wrong. There were hints of Euro support for this on the 0Z run, if the 12Z run also shows something developing in the Caribbean and heading for the Gulf in the 8 to 10 day range, than I'll go from Code Mauve to Code Buff.
Quoting 460. CybrTeddy:

440. Simon marks 9 -- 1992 had 10.

Not accounting for the Central pacific - Genevieve was only a major there, and in 1992 so was Ekeka (I think) and Iniki.


Phanfone showing up nicely on Japanese radar. Link

This was from Steve Gregory's blog.

Interesting information on this season and the chances of seeing another system before the season ends.

While the tropical environment overall continues to be generally hostile to tropical cyclone development, historically, OCT produces on average about 2 named storms in the Atlantic basin. So far this year, storm formations have averaged just under half the long-term average, while the ACE is running well under half the average of the last of past 50 years. So, from a purely long-term statistical standpoint, it’s reasonable to expect 1 more named storm formation before the season officially ends in November. However, it would not be at all surprising to this forecaster to see NO additional storms – with an outside chance of as many as 3 more storms. (Though my bias is clearly closer to no more storms than it is 2 or 3!)

Quoting 469. HaoleboySurfEC:

I'd say Cristobal was a close call. Much closer than the final track suggests. If Cristobal made it just a little further westward before the anomalous trough picked it up it would have benefited from an anticyclone and would have been an intensifying hurricane at landfall somewhere on the CONUS.

At least that is my memory of it. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.


Thankfully Captain Trough Save the U.S was there.Now it looks like Captain trough doom of the U.S on the GFS.
just ran the vis. loop of the atlantic nothing to worry about. noticed nhc lowered their saying to 2 days instead of 5.
Quoting 439. LargoFl:

run after run,repeatedly,a hurricane for florida...stay alert florida...........................


it's the GFS - guessing forecasting system for cyclogenesis at least in 2014.
Typhoon Phanfone to make landfall?
BBC weather video, 4 October 2014 Last updated at 13:35
Phanfone is heading towards Japan, could the heavy rain affect F1 Race Day in Suzuka this weekend? Tomasz Schafernaker takes a look.


Click to enlarge.

Have to go and say goodnight with the abobve photo of canoeists playing waterball with wild swans at sunset in the Marina of Mainz. Took this peacefull photo Thursday evening. But "Indian Summer" conditions will now fade away very quickly with cold front of Joanna entering our borders right now.

Have a good Sunday everybody!

Quoting 475. islander101010:

just ran the vis. loop of the atlantic nothing to worry about. noticed nhc lowered their saying to 2 days instead of 5.
yes i saw that
Quoting 476. rmbjoe1954:



it's the GFS - guessing forecasting system for cyclogenesis at least in 2014.
we'll for peoples sake in the maybe affected area's its good we do show what the model says,they can make their own decisions i guess...me Im watching it closely
cat5,

I thought GFS stood for "Good Fantasy Surfing", because any good waves in my neck of the woods have been pure fantasy this summer/fall.

There was some surprise chest high peelers this morning southern NC, but I missed it. Could have been fun in the right spot.

Let's hope we get a change. I do remember my buddy in Surfside, TX telling me that El Nino 1997-1998 was a good winter for GOM surfing. He surfs the whole coast from Padre to Galveston.

Denver blizzard of late October 1997 moved off the SE coast and spun off NJ...epic. Jenks was 15'+ faces one morning.

If we do have an El Nino forming, possibly some plus side.

Quoting 468. Sfloridacat5:



GFS Cry Wolf Syndrome
It's a medical condition brought on by following the GFS long term model runs. It has been known to cause all sorts of related medical problems.
Quoting 476. rmbjoe1954:



it's the GFS - guessing forecasting system for cyclogenesis at least in 2014.


What has happened so far in 2014 has absolutely no impact on whether we get development for the rest of 2014. Even in below average seasons we have had storms form after this date. To use the fact that we have had a slow season as the reason you will not believe a forecast is to put it best, lame. You may say, well the forecast models have been wrong most of the season, but that is still not a reason to say this won't happen

We have to see the GFS continue to move up the timeline and it would help to have the Euro on board, but for a forecast model to predict a storm to form in the Western Caribbean in October is certainly not crazy at all.
Second pass has lowest pressure down to 945.7 mbs,

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
No one is saying that a system can't form in the western caribbean during a inactive year (Think Ida 2009).What he's saying is that the GFS has shown so many false alarms this season even in favored climatology areas that it's hard to believe it even now.The idea is not crazy but the model has been terrible all season long.I'll wait to see if other models are on board.More preferably the Euro.
Yeah I agree particularly with this statement:

"Whether we have had only 5 storms or had 15 storms to date has no impact whatsoever on whether something forms going forward."

Once you get to the playoffs, the regular season no longer matters. All that matters is what happens from this point on.



Quoting 466. Hurricanes101:



Yea, I understand that. I ripped the GFS just a few days ago for what it was showing, but that is because it kept showing it in the 360 hour timeframe and not moving forward. Now it is moving forward the timeline consistently; which leads me to believe it a bit more

As I said before, a hurricane forming in the Western Caribbean in October is certainly not out of the question no matter how active the rest of the season has been or continues to be.

Whether we have had only 5 storms or had 15 storms to date has no impact whatsoever on whether something forms going forward.
lol, I forgot about Capt. Trough. But is he a Mr. October? Will he be clutch...or doom!

Quoting 474. washingtonian115:

Thankfully Captain Trough Save the U.S was there.Now it looks like Captain trough doom of the U.S on the GFS.
The mother of my October curiosity...



It can, has and will happen again, some day. So beautiful. Haiyan, imo, did not come close.
Quoting 451. LargoFl:

so far on this early run, looks like center goes into sarasota/ft meyers area.....................


Quit teasin' me!
Quoting 479. LargoFl:

we'll for peoples sake in the maybe affected area's its good we do show what the model says,they can make their own decisions i guess...me Im watching it closely


It's been showing it 4-5? consecutive runs around the same time period. It's not pushing it back constantly like early in the season. We started following it @ 384 hrs and it's down to 264-ish. I'll be watching it. When it say it for 96-120 time frame, then I begin to truly say, hmmm. It is still a long way out presently, but like you said, good to keep watch.