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Typhoon Parma hits the Philippines as a Catgeory 1 typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:02 PM GMT on October 03, 2009

Typhoon Parma made landfall as a Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds and torrential rains over the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island early Saturday morning. Parma had been a very dangerous Category 4 typhoon just 24 hours prior to landfall, but interaction of the storm with the high mountain range along the Philippines' east coast disrupted the storm as it approached landfall. As a result, Parma is dumping less rain than feared, and its path along the extreme northern coast of Luzon is keeping the typhoon's rains well north of the capital of Manila, which is still recovering from the 16+ inches of rain dumped by Typhoon Ketsana a week ago. A query of airports in northern Luzon Island done using our interactive wundermap reveals that Parma has dumped between two and six inches of rain over the past two days. Some isolated regions may receive up to twenty inches of rain, according to the latest satellite-based rainfall forecast for Parma (Figure 2). While rains of this magnitude will cause significant damage to localized regions, a major disaster with hundreds of lives lost now appears unlikely in the Philippines due to Typhoon Parma.


Figure 1. Total estimated rainfall from last weeks's Typhoon Ketsana, as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Image credit: NASA/TRMM project.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Typhoon Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC October 4 (2am EDT Sunday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Over twelve inches of rain (red colors) is expected along the extreme northern tip of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Typhoon Melor
Category 4 Typhoon Melor powered through the northern Marianas Islands 90 miles north of Saipan Island this morning. Melor brought sustained winds of 32 mph to Saipan. Melor is expected to recurve to the north pass just south of the coast of Japan next week.

The Atlantic remains quiet
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Atlanta flood relief mission today
The portlight.org charity is delivering a load of relief supplies to one of the families affected by the Atlanta, Georgia floods two weeks ago. You can follow the progress of the mission via the portlight.org webcam today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks DR. MASTERS a little good news
Thanks Doc. Great news that Parma spared the Philippines more tragedy.
Thanks for the update. Glad to see there will not be a large loss of life.
Thanx, Doc.
Dakster.Not meaning any wrong, but one life , to one family is a large loss of life. Those poor people . I saw on the news they were trying to tie their homes "down" with rope.So sad
Theme for the season....The Atlantic remains quiet
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.
...And The Wind Cries Mary...
Thanks for the update

Repost from last blog

If we extrapolate the QBO to next hurricane season, it will be in its westerly phase (positive), justifying an active hurricane season. The QBO is used mainly to predict seasonal activity but also the health and intensity of such systems.
Its true no area of real threat, but any swirl that reaches SE, of the Leewards and E of the Southern Bahamas will encounter low shear..Link
10. IKE
Up to 4,000 buried in Indonesian quake rubble

Link
The PDO entered a cool phase during the past 2 years. Some scientists dictates that a cool phase in the PDO disrupts the "the long-term global warming pattern". This is one of the reasons why the tropical atmosphere cooled up to the 2009 hurricane season (not just the Atlantic bu the global tropical Atlantic). This along with weak MJO, the easterly phase of the QBO, wind shear by El Nino, and a weaker AEJ, all made 2009 quiet.

Now, the PDO has trended back positive/warm through September 2009 and this typically succeeds El Nino events. If the PDO continues to warm through Spring 2010, the tropical atmosphere may become unstable enough to allow the 2010 to be a fairly to very active year. For one, the seasonal patterns of this year are forecast to reverse (neutral ENSO, warming atmosphere, westerly QBO, etc) If these parameters do verified, yeah we gotta watch out next year.
Stormjunkie is about to arrive at the Baxters...check it out...



http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Portlight/comment.html?entrynum=21
Quoting IKE:
Theme for the season....The Atlantic remains quiet
In the Atlantic, there are no threat areas to discuss and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.


And with all due respect to all...... "I Like this way"
Good Morning Again!!!!!!!!
The -QBO has been descending but so has the +QBO wave which is in the lowest stratosphere. This is the old wave which has been reeking havoc on the Atlantic hurricane season.

Here are 2 links of interest....

http://www.atmosp.ph...al_2001_QBO.pdf

http://ams.allenpres...-15-12-1421.pdf
Quoting taco2me61:


And with all due respect to all...... "I Like this way"


You and me both !
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Special Notice
Quoting Weather456:
The PDO entered a cool phase during the past 2 years. Some scientists dictates that a cool phase in the PDO disrupts the "the long-term global warming pattern". This is one of the reasons why the tropical atmosphere cooled up to the 2009 hurricane season (not just the Atlantic bu the global tropical Atlantic). This along with weak MJO, the easterly phase of the QBO, wind shear by El Nino, and a weaker AEJ, all made 2009 quiet.

Now, the PDO has trended back positive/warm through September 2009 and this typically succeeds El Nino events. If the PDO continues to warm through Spring 2010, the tropical atmosphere may become unstable enough to allow the 2010 to be a fairly to very active year. For one, the seasonal patterns of this year are forecast to reverse (neutral ENSO, warming atmosphere, westerly QBO, etc) If these parameters do verified, yeah we gotta watch out next year.


I don't think the blog can handle another extremely slow year like 2009, I think someone might get hurt on here.
So pleased there won't be the huge disaster we feared in the Phillipines. Gotta love properly positioned mountain ranges--at least if they're not heavily populated ones.
Atlanta flood relief mission today
The portlight.org charity is delivering a load of relief supplies to one of the families affected by the Atlanta, Georgia floods two weeks ago. You can follow the progress of the mission via the portlight.org webcam today.

Jeff Masters


I think its ironic, but the main reason the floods in Atlanta happened two weeks ago was indeed because of the remnants of Fred.

Fred's been the most destructive storm of the season, 10 dead, 500 million in damages when Fred when it was active as a Category 3 storm, was origionaly suppose to curve well out to sea.
I have been in touch with my family in the Philippines and have been telling them the latest on Parma. Typhoon "Pepeng" (international codename: Parma) accelerated to almost twice its speed at 24 kilometers per hour around noon Saturday but was moving west-northwest toward Cagayan. It was previously reported to be moving at 17 kilometers per hour.
We are so very glad that Parma down-graded to a cat 1 on land fall.


Also a big CONGRATS to Press/Stormjunkie and the Portlight Disaster Relief Organization on the delivery of good to the Baxter family.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I don't think the blog can handle another extremely slow year like 2009, I think someone might get hurt on here.


Well this year was an anomaly, much did not expected it and much never experienced it. I for one have nothing to complain about 2009, becuz unlike 1977, the low activity is explainable and much was learned and is to be learned about this year.
Good Blog!!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Atlanta flood relief mission today
The portlight.org charity is delivering a load of relief supplies to one of the families affected by the Atlanta, Georgia floods two weeks ago. You can follow the progress of the mission via the portlight.org webcam today.

Jeff Masters


I think its ironic, but the main reason the floods in Atlanta happened two weeks ago was indeed because of the remnants of Fred.

Fred's been the most destructive storm of the season, 10 dead, 500 million in damages when Fred when it was active as a Category 3 storm, was origionaly suppose to curve well out to sea.


that....is an outstanding observation...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Dakster.Not meaning any wrong, but one life , to one family is a large loss of life. Those poor people . I saw on the news they were trying to tie their homes "down" with rope.So sad


Yes. Of Course. ANY loss of life is bad, but this could have been a mass casaulty event, and it looks like it won't be, which is good.

Quoting presslord:


that....is an outstanding observation...


I wish it wasn't.. I wish Fred could have just curved out to sea. Any type of damage from a Tropical Cyclone is a bad day.
The Atlantic Floods was not due to the remnants of Fred. It was due to the non tropical Gulf system that moved inland over the South Central USA and became stalled and lingered slowly eastward across the Southeast USA. The remnants of Fred occurred at slightly different time frames and those floods were never the cause of Fred-ex.
Meanwhile, the unnamed subtropical storm continues to organize

Now



This morning

OK...y'all have gotten waaaayy above my meteorological pay grade here ; )
Press... at least you have a pay grade. I'm still in training.
Good day Dr. Masters and thanks for the Saturday update. Fellow bloggers, hope all is well and everyone is having a Blessed Saturday or Sunday, whichever the case may be.

Thankfully TY Parma weakened considerably before landfall. I was browsing articles, unfortunately 2 deaths have been reported, along with wind damage reports, but all in all this is GOOD news. Hopefully TY Parma keeps moving at a steady clip and gets pulled out into the open NW PAC.

TY Melor is hitting the Marianas pretty hard, hopefully all is well there also. And hopefully it takes its NE turn and bypasses Tokyo and all of Japan.

What the ATL basin lacked this year, with 6 named storms, the E and W PAC have made up for it. Major Hurricane Jimena hit Baja California hard. Super TY Choi-Wan avoided hitting any populated islands on its trip aroung the PAC.

Unfortunately, TS/TY Ketsana did major damage in the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. I know the W PAC always has a higher number of TY each year.

It's unfortunate that the World Community of nations can't assist these nations, BEFORE THE DISASTER, to lessen their effects before they strike. Nations like the Philippines and Bangladesh regularly get slammed by Tropical systems and NOONE has stepped up to the plate to assist these nations in the world with a strategy to help control flood control, or track the storms with their own Doppler radar systems. The USA have many THOUSANDS of them, hasn't anyone considered how many LIVES they can save by donating systems to those who don't have them.

Sorry for ranting, human life is important. The farmer in The W PAC who has $1 in his pocket is just as important as the wealthy.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good day Dr. Masters and thanks for the Saturday update. Fellow bloggers, hope all is well and everyone is having a Blessed Saturday or Sunday, whichever the case may be.

Thankfully TY Parma weakened considerably before landfall. I was browsing articles, unfortunately 2 deaths have been reported, along with wind damage reports, but all in all this is GOOD news. Hopefully TY Parma keeps moving at a steady clip and gets pulled out into the open NW PAC.

TY Melor is hitting the Marianas pretty hard, hopefully all is well there also. And hopefully it takes its NE turn and bypasses Tokyo and all of Japan.

What the ATL basin lacked this year, with 6 named storms, the E and W PAC have made up for it. Major Hurricane Jimena hit Baja California hard. Super TY Choi-Wan avoided hitting any populated islands on its trip aroung the PAC.

Unfortunately, TS/TY Ketsana did major damage in the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. I know the W PAC always has a higher number of TY each year.

It's unfortunate that the World Community of nations can't assist these nations, BEFORE THE DISASTER, to lessen their effects before they strike. Nations like the Philippines and Bangladesh regularly get slammed by Tropical systems and NOONE has stepped up to the plate to assist these nations in the world with a strategy to help control flood control, or track the storms with their own Doppler radar systems. The USA have many THOUSANDS of them, hasn't anyone considered how many LIVES they can save by donating systems to those who don't have them.

Sorry for ranting, human life is important. The farmer in The W PAC who has $1 in his pocket is just as important as the wealthy.


Charity begins at home. We have enough troubles here without trying to save the rest of the world.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good day Dr. Masters and thanks for the Saturday update. Fellow bloggers, hope all is well and everyone is having a Blessed Saturday or Sunday, whichever the case may be.

Thankfully TY Parma weakened considerably before landfall. I was browsing articles, unfortunately 2 deaths have been reported, along with wind damage reports, but all in all this is GOOD news. Hopefully TY Parma keeps moving at a steady clip and gets pulled out into the open NW PAC.

TY Melor is hitting the Marianas pretty hard, hopefully all is well there also. And hopefully it takes its NE turn and bypasses Tokyo and all of Japan.

What the ATL basin lacked this year, with 6 named storms, the E and W PAC have made up for it. Major Hurricane Jimena hit Baja California hard. Super TY Choi-Wan avoided hitting any populated islands on its trip aroung the PAC.

Unfortunately, TS/TY Ketsana did major damage in the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. I know the W PAC always has a higher number of TY each year.

It's unfortunate that the World Community of nations can't assist these nations, BEFORE THE DISASTER, to lessen their effects before they strike. Nations like the Philippines and Bangladesh regularly get slammed by Tropical systems and NOONE has stepped up to the plate to assist these nations in the world with a strategy to help control flood control, or track the storms with their own Doppler radar systems. The USA have many THOUSANDS of them, hasn't anyone considered how many LIVES they can save by donating systems to those who don't have them.

Sorry for ranting, human life is important. The farmer in The W PAC who has $1 in his pocket is just as important as the wealthy.

The toll from Parma is now at 3 One man drowned after he was swept away by a strong current while trying to cross a river in San Mariano town in Isabela province. a man also died from falling off a roof and a two-year-old boy drowned about 400 kilometers to the south in Camarines Sur province, an 18-year-old boy was also reported missing after he fell in a drainage canal and was washed away in the northern resort city of Baguio.
Thousands of people had evacuated their homes before the arrival of the typhoon, which ripped off rooftops and knocked down trees across the north of Luzon on Saturday, where it made landfall.

The typhoon's effects had been felt much earlier on the island's eastern extremes.

Power and communication lines were cut off in Cagayan and Isabela by Pepeng’s sustained winds of 175 kph.

Some residents walking in the Tuguegarao city proper had to scamper for safety on Saturday to avoid falling fiberglass shards and pieces of plastic from a fast food billboard blown by strong wind.

Tricycles, the only available mode of transportation readily available in the city on Saturday morning, stopped plying their routes by noon because drivers feared that they would be blown off by the strong wind, which Pagasa had said earlier could gust up to over 200 kph.

At least 2,921 families had been evacuated from coastal and low-lying villages in Gonzaga, Tuao and Sta. Teresita towns, reports from the Office of Civil Defense in Cagayan Valley said.

Melchito Castro, OCD regional director, said Pepeng's center winds, at a maximum of 175 kilometers per hour, were stronger than those accompanying Typhoon "Karen" that hit the province in 2008.

He said preparation for the typhoon was routine because Cagayan is along a typhoon path but many people here were still surprised as Pepeng started gaining strength by noon Saturday. Weathermen said the typhoon had accelerated to 24 kph, explaining the earlier landfall. Pagasa said earlier that it expected the typhoon to roar ashore Saturday night.

Castro said parts of Tuguegarao City and Buguey town should expect flooding because these are low-lying areas. Floodwaters have started rising in many sections of the city on Saturday afternoon.

Philip Labuguen, OCD officer, said sections of Tuguegarao were flooded last week due to rains brought by tropical storm "Ondoy."

He said strong winds, not rains, now threaten Cagayan.

Chief Supt. Roberto Damian, Cagayan Valley police director, surveyed the initial typhoon damage on Saturday morning but he was forced to return to the regional police headquarters here after a tree hit and damaged his car.

Roads blocked by fallen trees and debris forced rescue and disaster response personnel and provincial government employees to walk in order to answer pleas for help. Policemen had been sent out wielding chainsaws to clear the roads.

Local officials of Peñablanca town asked the OCD for rubber boats to ferry residents needing help.

The Maguiling bridge connecting Cagayan and Apayao was impassable due to the swollen Chico River.

In Batanes, a usual path of typhoons in the country, some residents described their situation as still "normal" despite the approaching Pepeng.

Aurora Ponce, 75, a resident of Ivana town, said Ivatans were used to strong typhoons and their houses were designed to withstand strong winds and rains.

Local officials, she said, did not raise any alarm in the communities for massive evacuation.

In Isabela, Nestor Malenab, 40, did not want to risk the lives of his wife and three children and chose to leave his village of Alinguigan 2nd in town on Saturday morning even as the water levels at the Pinacanauan and Cagayan rivers remained low.

As Pepeng started dumping heavy rains on Friday night, at least 577 families were reported to have sought shelter in school buildings, evacuation centers or their relatives' houses in Cabagan and Dinapigue towns, reports from the provincial disaster coordinating council said.

"We are used to these typhoons like Pepeng and we are always ever ready for rescue and relief operations," said Isabela Vice Gov. Ramon Reyes.

He said heavy rains and strong wind were reported in northern Isabelatowns, which are nearer Cagayan.

Disaster response teams had readied a pump boat and a rubber boat, life vests, ropes and other rescue gadgets for rescue evacuations.

Saturnino Tenedor, Magat Dam reservoir division chief, said the water level at facility in Ramon town on Saturday was recorded at 190 meters, at least three meters below the critical mark.

Water release at the reservoir, however, continued on Saturday at the rate of 1,931 cubic meters per second.

In Nueva Vizcaya, disaster management officials lamented the refusal of many residents of identified flood- and landslide-prone areas to leave for safer ground.

Evaliza Agamata, disaster management provincial coordinator, said villagers living on the banks of the Magat River in Bayombong, Solano and Bagabag towns refused to heed the pre-emptive evacuation order issued by the authorities on Friday.

"We still do not have... the number of evacuees because the people would not listen. It is the usual Filipino mentality that they would not leave their property unless the situation becomes too unbearable," Agamata said.

"But our policy is that if a family refuses to leave, they must at least allow the children, sickly and the elderly to be brought to evacuation centers," she said.

She said heavy equipment had been working round-the-clock in Sitio Turturayoc, Abian village in Bambang town, clearing a portion of the national road that was buried in mud from landslides since Wednesday.


In Aurora province, more than 600 families in five coastal towns were asked to move to higher ground on Friday night as the province prepared to face the onslaught of Pepeng.

Senior Supt. Romulo Esteban, Aurora police director, said residents of critical areas of Dipaculao, Dinalungan, Casiguran, Dilasag and Dingalan town, where a major landslide hit in 2004, heeded authorities' call to evacuate early.

Gov. Bellaflor Angara-Castillo said residents of the province prayed for Pepeng to change course and they were thankful that it did.

"Everyone here prayed for the typhoon to somehow weaken or change course and it's a great blessing for us that it did," she said.

However, Castillo ordered all local government officials to ask residents staying in evacuation centers not to return home yet and keep rescue equipment on standby.

Alex Ocampo, provincial administrator, said their preparation for Pepeng did not go to waste. More than 2,220 people in the province were taken to barangay halls and school buildings so they could avoid strong waves and floods that Pepeng would generate.

Ocampo said relief goods had been readied and rubber boats and trucks were put on standby for possible rescue work.

Fr. Joefran Talaban, Casiguran parish priest, said he saw how ordinary people prepared for the typhoon.

"Though they are ready to evacuate, some residents still fixed their roofs, making sure these will not be blown by strong winds. They put some of their clothes in plastic bags and even brought along some of their household appliances when they moved to evacuation centers," Talaban said.

Talaban said they were thankful that crops were spared from the typhoon.

In Bulacan, more than 2,000 people living along the banks of the Angat River in Norzagaray, Bustos and Baliuag towns were evacuated at dawn Saturday after the river swelled because of water released from from Ipo dam, reports from the Bulacan PDCC said.

In Pangasinan, some 186 families from coastal villages sought shelter in various evacuation centers on Friday night.

Butch Velasco, provincial information officer, said 118 families were evacuated in Dagupan City, 40 families in Lingayen and 28 families in Sual.

A second-year high school student from Calasiao town, Amadeo Austria, 14, drowned Friday afternoon in the Marusay River in Calasiao town. Austria went swimming with his friends in the rising river at about 2 p.m. Friday.

The San Roque multipurpose dam in San Manuel town remained below its spilling level as of 6 a.m. Saturday.

But the Binga and Ambuklao hydroelectric dams in Benguet province had their spillway gates still open. Amabuklao had six gates open at three meters, while Binga opened two gates at 1.5 meters.

The water released from these dams are caught by the San Roque dam, which is located downstream. Water released by the San Roque dam flows to the Agno River and disgorges in the Lingayen Gulf.

Long lines of shoppers were observed in grocery and supermarket counters in Baguio City, Pangasinan and Isabela on Friday, with shopping carts filled with instant noodles, bread, canned goods and candles.

In Baguio City, the city engineer's office had prepared heavy equipment and trucks for immediate deployment in the event of landslides.

All major roads to and from Baguio City remained passable on Saturday afternoon as heavy rains and high winds spared the Cordillera region.

Ilocos Sur and Abra were also spared by the typhoon. Local officials did not report flooding, landslides or evacuation there on Friday and Saturday.

From Inquirer.net
Stormjunkie is approaching the baxyers neighborhood and flood damaged home right now...pretty emotional experience so far...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Portlight/comment.html?entrynum=21
y'all should really watch this...
Quoting Weather456:
Meanwhile, the unnamed subtropical storm continues to organize

Now



This morning



Would have to agree with your analysis earlier that it appears this should have been a subtropical system by now. I make this conclusion since the surface circulation has continued to tighten which has resulted in the highest winds coming closer to the circulation center. In addition, there is no frontal feature associated with this low anymore which means this is a subtropical entity. I'm quite impressed with the convective development from this system considering the waters are around 23 C.
Quoting TampaHelpDesk:


Charity begins at home. We have enough troubles here without trying to save the rest of the world.


Charity is wherever a person wants it to be. For some "home" is their own community, others at state level, then at national level, and finally at world level. I'll give to whomever, wherever, whenever I wish.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Charity is wherever a person wants it to be. For some "home" is their own community, others at state level, then at national level, and finally at world level. I'll give to whomever, wherever, whenever I wish.


BZ, well said
Quoting PcolaDan:


Charity is wherever a person wants it to be. For some "home" is their own community, others at state level, then at national level, and finally at world level. I'll give to whomever, wherever, whenever I wish.


Yup...we should all do what we can, when we can, where we can...the structure and process of it is irrelevant...
Quoting TampaHelpDesk:


Charity begins at home. We have enough troubles here without trying to save the rest of the world.


Friend, I'm not saying the USA should just give away cash.

There are other nations who contribute to the World Bank and the IMF. The Peoples Republic of China should step up to the plate and help, as their budget surpluses, at the USA's expense should be either loaned or donated to countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, The Philippines, Bangladesh.
there's enough wealth in the USA alone to drastically increase the quality of life at "home" AND abroad for many people who are suffering. Overlooking either of these is simply inhumane. We're blessed to be in a part of human history where we can help everyone and yet greed keeps us in the dark ages.
wow quiet in here only 13 posts an hr hard to keep up
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Atlanta flood relief mission today
The portlight.org charity is delivering a load of relief supplies to one of the families affected by the Atlanta, Georgia floods two weeks ago. You can follow the progress of the mission via the portlight.org webcam today.

Jeff Masters


I think its ironic, but the main reason the floods in Atlanta happened two weeks ago was indeed because of the remnants of Fred.

Fred's been the most destructive storm of the season, 10 dead, 500 million in damages when Fred when it was active as a Category 3 storm, was origionaly suppose to curve well out to sea.
The floods was not caused by the remnants of Fred. That happened before Fred was even close to that area. They were worried that Fred would add to the woes with more rains.
AussieStorm, thanks for the AWESOME update on TY Parma effects on the Philippines.

Sad, the Filipino people are as stubborn as many Americans, not wanting to leave until it's unbearable, then it's too late to do anything..

Look at Hurricane Ike, 9-13-09, the NHC put the words in their advisories, "those who do not leave threated areas most certainly face certain death"! They didn't leave and bodies were found washed TEN MILES INLAND!
Quoting TampaHelpDesk:


Charity begins at home. We have enough troubles here without trying to save the rest of the world.
remember that when your house blows down burns up floods out
Quoting mossyhead:
The floods was not caused by the remnants of Fred. That happened before Fred was even close to that area. They were worried that Fred would add to the woes with more rains.

Fred enhanced the rainfall and sent things from bad to catastrophic.
48. 789
Quoting Weather456:
Meanwhile, the unnamed subtropical storm continues to organize

Now



This morning

cordinants please
You have to realize the rains for Atlanta moved from nw to se. Not from the se to nw. Central Georgia got the heavy rains the day after northern Georgia and northern Alabama.
During El Nino, roughly the opposite occurs as a negative SOI indicates lower pressures near Tahiti and the lower pressures over Northern Australia are nearer to the date line than at Darwin. This lower than normal pressure effectively decreases the trades which aid in the development of equatorial westerlies. This further reduces upwelling and transfers heat energy from the Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific, which leads to El Nino.

Refer to the blog I posted on July 26 about the SOI

SLP anomaly for September 2009
Quoting mossyhead:
You have to realize the rains for Atlanta moved from nw to se. Not from the se to nw. Central Georgia got the heavy rains the day after northern Georgia and northern Alabama.

Yes.. what's your point? Not trying to be a jerk just curious as to how the direction of storm movement was relevant?
Quoting 789:
cordinants please


40N/32W

Quoting Bordonaro:
AussieStorm, thanks for the AWESOME update on TY Parma effects on the Philippines.

Sad, the Filipino people are as stubborn as many Americans, not wanting to leave until it's unbearable, then it's too late to do anything..

Look at Hurricane Ike, 9-13-09, the NHC put the words in their advisories, "those who do not leave threated areas most certainly face certain death"! They didn't leave and bodies were found washed TEN MILES INLAND!


Thats not necessarily true, in the Philippines and Taiwan..they have Mandatory Evacuations.. if they tell you to leave.. you leave.. or you are removed for your own safety.
54. 789
Quoting Weather456:


40N/32W

thank you very much ! also watching portlight at the moment
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats not necessarily true, in the Philippines.. they have Mandatory evacuations.. if they tell you to leave.. you leave.. or you are removed for your own safety.

Thanks for letting me know.

By making the following statement, I am not trying to start an argument on the blog, promise, but the USA should do the same thing, in ALL 50 states. I believe the Galveston, TX area caused a law to be passed in Texas, see attached article below.


Mandatory evacuation law to begin Sept. 1
Comments 0 | Recommend 0
July 27, 2009 10:31 PM
By LAURA B. MARTINEZ/The Brownsville Herald
A new law that takes effect Sept. 1 gives county judges and city mayors the authority to order law enforcement officers to arrest persons who fail to comply with mandatory evacuation orders issued during disasters.

The law also states that a county or municipality can order the individual who failed to comply with the mandatory evacuation order and later needed to be evacuated to pay for his or her rescue.

Harlingen Mayor Chris Boswell said enforcement of the law in his city, by arresting persons who ignore a mandatory evacuation order, would be decided on a case-by-case basis.

Boswell said the law%u2019s purpose is to ensure safety not only for residents but also for emergency personnel.

%u201CWhat this law is really trying to get at is to impress upon folks that, if a mandatory evacuation has to be ordered by the governor, the county judge or by the mayor, that folks listen because there may be consequences,%u201D Boswell said. %u201CThey may be putting their lives at risk.

%u201CBut in addition to that, they%u2019re going to put the lives of first responders at risk if they get into trouble and call to be rescued.%u201D

Boswell cited the experience of Galveston in the days prior to Hurricane Ike in September 2008 as a reason that the new law was enacted.

%u201CIf you recall, in Galveston, they had a lot of party people that stayed behind to have a hurricane party and they ended up having to be rescued. And that put people in jeopardy,%u201D Boswell said.

House Bill 1831, sponsored by State Rep. Frank Corte Jr. R-San Antonio, authorizes officials to use %u201Creasonable force%u201D to remove an individual from the affected area.

It also states that a person will be held %u201Ccivilly liable%u201D for the rescue effort if the person must be rescued by a governmental entity.

Although the law takes effect at the peak of hurricane season, it pertains to other disasters such as flooding and fires.

Whether the law can be enforced remains to be seen, Cameron County Judge Carlos Cascos said, calling it a %u201Cdrastic%u201D measure.

%u201CI hope that it doesn%u2019t get to that because we don%u2019t have any place to put (persons who are arrested),%u201D Cascos said.

Cascos said the new law gives judges and mayors a tool to show those individuals who refuse to leave that they could face consequences such as being arrested and having to reimburse counties and municipalities.

He added some type of public service annoucement campaign would be needed as well familiarizing residents with the new law.

Mercedes Police Chief Olga Maldonado also invoked Hurricane Ike in Galveston as justification for the new law.

%u201CIt becomes very dangerous for law enforcement, fire (departments) or anybody to try and rescue people in the middle of the storm,%u201D Maldonado said. %u201CWe are also placing our lives in danger.

%u201CDuring (Hurricane Ike), there were a lot of people who were told to evacuate and we don%u2019t want it to happen like it did in Galveston. A lot of people lost their lives and they still cannot find them,%u201D she said, referring to residents of the beach communities on Bolivar Penisula, north of Galveston Island.

Brownsville Mayor Pat M. Ahumada Jr., supports the new law and said he would have no qualms about arresting a person who puts his family in danger by failing to comply with a mandatory evacuation order.

If it was a person deciding for the safety of himself, the mayor would look at each individual on a %u201Ccase-by-case situation.%u2019%u201D Ahumada said. But if a person endangers his or her family, %u201CI would throw the book at him if he put his wife and children at risk.%u201D

Ahumada said he supports the law because he does not want to put law enforcement officials at risk to check on persons who disregard the evaculation order.

San Benito Police Chief George Gomez said he could not comment until he reads the new law, but added, %u201CWe%u2019re going to always follow the laws of the state of Texas and the local city ordinances.%u201D

Over the past few years, officials have ordered voluntary evacuations only. One was issued in 2005 during Hurricane Rita and another in 2007 during Hurricane Dean.

Cari Lambrecht, public information officer for Hidalgo County, said the likelihood of Hidalgo County officials arresting residents who do not abide by the law is %u201Cslim.%u201D

%u201CWe don%u2019t have the manpower,%u201D Lambrecht said, adding that residents have been repeatedly told that if they choose to stay behind after an evaucation order, %u201Cyou do it at your own risk.%u201D

Like Brownsville, Lambrecht said authorities could consider each situation on a case-by-case basis.

%u201CWe have bigger tasks%u201D such as searching for and rescuing residents,%u201D she said.

Valley Morning Star reporter Gabriel Saldaa contributed to this report



Terra 500m True Color image for 2009/276 (10/03/09)

post 56...conceptually I have no problem with that...
Since the MODIS shot...

30 minutes ago

Weather456,

I am looking at the images you posted in post 28 and post 60 and I do not understand why this is not even listed an invest. What are we missing or what is the NHC missing?
Quoting Weather456:
Since the MODIS shot...

30 minutes ago



This should be classified as a subtropical storm.
63. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
Since the MODIS shot...

30 minutes ago



The NHC is in denial =P
but it does look sub tropical, I wonder why they deactivated it, it should be at least orange, looking very good
64. JLPR
456, looks like this low could bring some rain
its developing some convection

Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Weather456,

I am looking at the images you posted in post 28 and post 60 and I do not understand why this is not even listed an invest. What are we missing or what is the NHC missing?


I am seeing comments about water is too cold and such and that really the only argument against 90L-ex. Now tell me, if the waters are too cold why is the system produce convection? You know what those cirrus clouds indicate? Those cirrus clouds indicate air is hitting the tropopause and has no where to go but outward (outflow). Mid-latitude systems don't have convective clouds that extend that far up that's why thunderstorm frequency drops dramatically in the high lats.

Another thing, the lapse rate, if the SSTs are that cool then the air directly above the sea surface should be cooler than the air aloft (temperating rising with height is a stable situation). The only way this system could produce such organize convection on each frame for 6 hrs, is if the lapse rate was decreasing with height (unstable situation), and in order for that to happen SSTs have to be warmer than the air aloft.

Some of my co-workers who have much more experienced than I am are dumb-founded as to why the NHC has not mentioned this system today. Something is not adding up and the last time I check I haven't had any mental problems, lol. This is utterly whack!
Quoting cchsweatherman:


This should be classified as a subtropical storm.


CCH, you and I had some great discussion in the past about subtropical systems and if memory serves me right, we nailed subtropical storm Jerry in 2007. Now whats the difference between Jerry and now.

This should be Sub-Tropical Storm Grace.
Yet another system goes unnamed...
Quoting Weather456:


CCH, you and I had some great discussion in the past about subtropical systems and if memory serves me right, we nailed subtropical storm Jerry in 2007. Now whats the difference between Jerry and now.



This system actually looks more impressive in terms of convective development and organization than Jerry in my opinion.
This was the QS from this morning

Weather456, I saw a comment on your blog about SSTs being too cold, how true is that?
Sent an email to the NHC out of curiosity, I want to hear why they aren't naming it.
Quoting Weather456:
This was the QS from this morning



Note the strongest winds are close to the surface circulation center which further supports tropical characteristics with this system. Not only that, but the circulation center displays great symmetry as well.
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
Weather456, I saw a comment on your blog about SSTs being too cold, how true is that?


SSTs are 72F north of 90L's center which is around 22C and the threshold for subtropical systems is 23C, which is only a difference of 1C so to say SSTs are too cold is an exaggeration.

...as it's kinda slow...this might resonate...


Link
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Note the strongest winds are close to the surface circulation center which further supports tropical characteristics with this system. Not only that, but the circulation center displays great symmetry as well.


yep
Bordonaro,

I know you are not trying to start anything because you are not like that. Anyone who wants to respond in an ugly manner - don't!

This is a very complicated issue. People on Boliver died, but people in Orange county feed the emergency workers. In Orangefield, Orange County, Texas, the country folk provided food, cooked it, and feed the out-of-town utility crews and emergency workers, day after day because there was no where else for them to eat. They were under a mandatory evac. but were extremely important in getting the county going.

Also, many of these folks had evacuated the week previous for Gustav (which was a good call by the county judge). Of course, Gustav didn't affect Orange County after all, so there was no help from the government for that. Not that anybody is owed anything, but two evacuations in two weeks is pretty tough on the working family, even if you did save for such an emergency. (Rural folk tend to be pretty self-sufficient, and often just need ice, and maybe water.)

Many rightfully fear looters and have animals to care for. It is easy to say people are more important than things, but for working people, what you have was hard to come by.

Before anyone says, "Don't live on the coast if you can't afford it", Orange County is not considered a coastal county. It is scores of miles from the Gulf.

The Orange County judge said he doubts he would ever ask for the law to be enforced, and the sheriff said the same thing.

It is just very complicated. If a level 5 hurricane with a huge wind field which would cause a 30 ft storm surge were to be forecasted however, maybe they should haul people out; I just don't know.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sent an email to the NHC out of curiosity, I want to hear why they aren't naming it.


Please post the reply.
Quoting presslord:
...as it's kinda slow...this might resonate...


Link


I firmly believe that has occurred on this blog. I believe there are people, or a person, who targets some of the bloggers to try and get them banned. This is not rocket science!
Quoting JLPR:
456, looks like this low could bring some rain
its developing some convection

It's under low shear too.LinkLink
Oh...it certainly happens here...it's often well disguised...which makes it even more insidious...and it's only a handful of people...it's especially disconcerting given the number of young people who read and participate here...actually, it's potentially very dangerous, I think...
G'afternoon, all!
'sup WS?
Sup PressLord and everyone else. How are the portlight contributions coming along, and how can I donate to the wonderful cause?
86. JLPR
Quoting jurakantaino:
It's under low shear too.LinkLink


yep but it doesn't seem like it wants to develop
:)
Yes, Presslord, you are absolutely correct - It is dangerous. I feel Tornadodude is an excellent example of someone who has been targeted. He is just a college-kid, for crying out loud!

I deal with bullies, and they are not mentally well. Once bullies learn they will not be tolerated by those in charge, they move on.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Sup PressLord and everyone else. How are the portlight contributions coming along, and how can I donate to the wonderful cause?


actually....you have a WU mail on that very subject...
Press -

I think I missed the delivery! I watched this morning while Sj was driving north and now when I checked in on the cam it looks like he's driving south. Did he make the delivery?

I think what you guys are doing is fantastic! Going to try and donate some more $$ this month.
I have been toying with the idea of starting a blog where people can post examples of cyber bullying on WU....to make it easier for the Admins to spot it and deal with it...would want to get it cleared by the WU coporate types first...
InTheCone....he's headed home....it was gut wrenching....and gratifying....everyone here is an equal part of this...y'all should be proud of yo selves...
Speaking of SJ, I was just looking at the CMC and ECMWF on his website.

They both show something coming out of the ATL. towards the Antilles area in a few days.

I would love to hear some analysis on this from those who are able to interpret such things, any comments?

Link
Quoting InTheCone:
Speaking of SJ, I was just looking at the CMC and ECMWF on his website.

They both show something coming out of the ATL. towards the Antilles area in a few days.

I would love to hear some analysis on this from those who are able to interpret such things, any comments?


Remember shear was expected to remain in place through the next 5 days...this was last weekend....well that is coming to an end and the model are showing the development of a weak feature from a wave approaching 35W as it moves wnw towards the Leewards. The models keep this feature relatively weak due to some lingering shear so I guess it all depends on timing. The area of showers just along the ITCZ region should be watched and also the wave further west.
Quoting Weather456:


Remember shear was expected to remain in place through the next 5 days...this was last weekend....well that is coming to an end and the model are showing the development of a weak feature from a wave approaching 35W as it moves wnw towards the Leewards. The models keep this feature relatively weak due to some lingering shear so I guess it all depends on timing. The area of showers just along the ITCZ region should be watched and also the wave further west.


Afternoon....where would it go beyond the islands, 456?
Presslord - You and SJ (along with other Portlight employees) deserve the credit. What YOU do is incredible. What YOU put together and organize to give to people in need brings back my faith in humankind.

Now if you could only get the chat window to display numbers on the live web cam/chat page correctly.
Quoting Weather456:


Remember shear was expected to remain in place through the next 5 days...this was last weekend....well that is coming to an end and the model are showing the development of a weak feature from a wave approaching 35W as it moves wnw towards the Leewards. The models keep this feature relatively weak due to some lingering shear so I guess it all depends on timing. The area of showers just along the ITCZ region should be watched and also the wave further west.


Thank You! I'll be following along, still too early to hang up the closed for the winter sign. I have been very intrigued by your outlooks toward next year.
shear looks to become more favorable in the mdr & gomex after 48 hours. I'm thinking the doc might be right, if the epac would just chillax for a few days and subsidence over the atlantic would wane, I think we might see something a little closer to home as the season comes to a close. if the upper westerlies persist past the 15th, then I guess we would set a record for earliest ending season? And 456 do you have the cold versus warm core plot of the cyclone some are considering subtropical? I can't find it -.-
Quoting Dakster:
Presslord - You and SJ (along with other Portlight employees) deserve the credit. What YOU do is incredible. What YOU put together and organize to give to people in need brings back my faith in humankind.

Now if you could only get the chat window to display numbers on the live web cam/chat page correctly.


Thanks! But we're all equally a part of this...

the chatroom numerals/profanity glitch was kinda interesting...especially as several nun friends of mine were in there...
Quoting SouthALWX:
shear looks to become more favorable in the mdr & gomex after 48 hours. I'm thinking the doc might be right, if the epac would just chillax for a few days and subsidence over the atlantic would wane, I think we might see something a little closer to home as the season comes to a close. if the upper westerlies persist past the 15th, then I guess we would set a record for earliest ending season? And 456 do you have the cold versus warm core plot of the cyclone some are considering subtropical? I can't find it -.-


CPD



judging by that, looks quite possible that it is indeed a subtrop storm
Quoting presslord:


Thanks! But we're all equally a part of this...

the chatroom numerals/profanity glitch was kinda interesting...especially as several nun friends of mine were in there...


You might have some explaining to do later... They may have a ruler for your knuckles.
Quoting Dakster:


You might have some explaining to do later... They may have a ruler for your knuckles.



wouldn't be anywhere near the first time, dude...
Afternoon all. The EPAC and Olaf are making themselves heard in our part of the world. Hopefully somewhere between here and there he'll bring beneficial rains and nothing else. Two of our rare October landfalls have originated in the EPAC. So this isn't so bad. So far.

105. JLPR
umm
starting to look a little interesting xD

A few words on naming 90L

Diagrams which depict a cyclone's phase depict subtropical cyclones with a shallow warm core and as asymmetric systems, similar to tropical cyclones which have begun the transition to an extratropical cyclone.
Cyclone Phase Analysis and Forecast: Help Page

Today is the 1st day phase analysis entered the pink or red (& barely so), this was after dvorak numbers fell to mostly naked swirl levels..too weak..



02/1745 UTC 41.0N 30.4W TOO WEAK 90L
02/1145 UTC 40.1N 30.0W ST1.5 90L
02/0545 UTC 39.8N 29.6W ST2.5 90L
01/2345 UTC 39.4N 28.7W ST2.5 90L
01/1745 UTC 38.5N 28.4W ST3.5 90L



& below the 23ºC threshold too..
107. JLPR
very good RAMSDIS radar loop of Melor

Link
Quoting Skyepony:
A few words on naming 90L

Diagrams which depict a cyclone's phase depict subtropical cyclones with a shallow warm core and as asymmetric systems, similar to tropical cyclones which have begun the transition to an extratropical cyclone.
Cyclone Phase Analysis and Forecast: Help Page

Today is the 1st day phase analysis entered the pink or red (& barely so), this was after dvorak numbers fell to mostly naked swirl levels..too weak..



02/1745 UTC 41.0N 30.4W TOO WEAK 90L
02/1145 UTC 40.1N 30.0W ST1.5 90L
02/0545 UTC 39.8N 29.6W ST2.5 90L
01/2345 UTC 39.4N 28.7W ST2.5 90L
01/1745 UTC 38.5N 28.4W ST3.5 90L



& below the 23%uFFFDC threshold too..


Firstly, the Dvorak numbers fell as it lost organization yesterday and those numbers are invalid to the current situation.

Second, cyclone entered a warm-core phase further than past subtropical cyclones. Also did you know the CPD is based on numerical models and thus can be off or even inaccurate and thus the actually observed warm-core on satellite imagery by AMSU which is much more accurate and justifies a subtropical cyclone.

Third, I am seeing comments about water is too cold and such and that really the only argument against 90L-ex. Now tell me, if the waters are too cold why is the system produce convection? You know what those cirrus clouds indicate? Those cirrus clouds indicate air is hitting the tropopause and has no where to go but outward (outflow). Mid-latitude systems don't have convective clouds that extend that far up that's why thunderstorm frequency drops dramatically in the high lats.

Another thing, the lapse rate, if the SSTs are that cool then the air directly above the sea surface should be cooler than the air aloft (temperature rising with height is a stable situation). The only way this system could produce such organize convection on each frame for 6 hrs, is if the lapse rate was decreasing with height (unstable situation), and in order for that to happen SSTs have to be warmer than the air aloft.

Bottom line, there is more evidence to support a subtropical storm than those that don't support a subtropical storm.
Good afternoon,

I see a lot of talk about how impressive Invest 90-L looks now near the Azores. It sort of reminds my of 2005's Hurricane Vince. Vince was over 23 deg C.
Something else I'm not seeing discussed with 90L is the high temp for the day.. When it was a 3.5 the temp on the west side of the COC was in the upper 60s, in the middle of the afternoon (no wonder it's marked cold core during this time). Today's high in the area of the storm was the low 70s.. Pretty chilly even for a naked STD..
The argument against 90L is weak considering the amount of evidence that it was a subtropical cyclone. For instant using Dvorak T numbers from more than 24 hrs ago to support your thinking? There is no hard cold evidence to support otherwise so that argument is weak. It seems more like an excuse.
I do keep a journal of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Here's the description of the formation of Vince & the formation of Invest 90-L:

Vince:
"An unnamed subtropical storm had occurred from the 4th to 5th of October that tracked northward through the eastern Azores. At this time, a very large and strong occluded extratropical gale was heading eastward across the northern Atlantic toward the subtropical storm. The cold front of the occluded gale absorbed the subtropical storm on the 6th. Afterwards, the gale moved southeastward, followed by a wandering motion east of the Azores and west of the Canary Islands in the northeastern Atlantic. The gale lost its frontal boundary structure and gained a low-level warm core toward on the 8th, perhaps from the occlusion. At this time, storm clusters where whirling around in all quadrants of the large circulation with an interesting, and rather small core of persistent storms right at the center. With an upper low cold core directly on top of the center, the system could be considered a subtropical storm at that time. However, the National Hurricane Center was not yet issuing advisories, and instead in a Tropical Weather Outlook that evening noted an interesting gale in the northeastern Atlantic that displayed tropical characteristics, and that further monitoring would occur. What was interesting about this system was that it was seemingly unusually too far to the northeast of sufficiently warm waters to obtain tropical character."

Invest 90-L:
"In late September, a major longwave upper trough dominated the eastern North American continent. A northwest-to-southeast oriented fragment of the upper trough supported a deeply-occluded surface cyclone that was located well east-southeast of Newfoundland. After amplifying into an upper low and aligning with the surface cyclone, it became a deep-layered low pressure system that was elongated east-to-west. The deep-layered low produced two rounds of weather for the Azores, the first occurring on September 29 as a vigorous frontal boundary passed eastward over the islands. The second round occurred as the center of the deep-layered vortex became better organized and headed eastward over the Azores.
On October 1, the deep-layered low was monitored for further acquisition of tropical characteristics while displaying an organizing storm core that featured an intermittent banding-type eye..."

Its seems these type of storms develop from a precursor deeply-occluded extratropical cyclone. The occluded front (a warm slot) allows for a central low-level warm core, but an upper-level cold core low makes it subtropical in nature. I guess in the case of Vince, the warm core was vertical enough such that it was fully tropical. But if occlusion is the only need for a low-level warm core, does that mean we can get tropical cyclones even over cool waters, or should we not bother classifying these types of developments as tropical?
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
The argument against 90L is weak considering the amount of evidence that it was a subtropical cyclone. For instant using Dvorak T numbers from more than 24 hrs ago to support your thinking? There is no hard cold evidence to support otherwise so that argument is weak. It seems more like an excuse.


precisely
Quoting JLPR:
umm
starting to look a little interesting xD



I'd say it is. The only thing I could find about it was this.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N55W
THROUGH A WEAKENING 1014 MB LOW NEAR 17N56W TO 13N56W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
14N-21N BETWEEN 53W-58W.

Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I do keep a journal of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. Here's the description of the formation of Vince & the formation of Invest 90-L:

Vince:
"An unnamed subtropical storm had occurred from the 4th to 5th of October that tracked northward through the eastern Azores. At this time, a very large and strong occluded extratropical gale was heading eastward across the northern Atlantic toward the subtropical storm. The cold front of the occluded gale absorbed the subtropical storm on the 6th. Afterwards, the gale moved southeastward, followed by a wandering motion east of the Azores and west of the Canary Islands in the northeastern Atlantic. The gale lost its frontal boundary structure and gained a low-level warm core toward on the 8th, perhaps from the occlusion. At this time, storm clusters where whirling around in all quadrants of the large circulation with an interesting, and rather small core of persistent storms right at the center. With an upper low cold core directly on top of the center, the system could be considered a subtropical storm at that time. However, the National Hurricane Center was not yet issuing advisories, and instead in a Tropical Weather Outlook that evening noted an interesting gale in the northeastern Atlantic that displayed tropical characteristics, and that further monitoring would occur. What was interesting about this system was that it was seemingly unusually too far to the northeast of sufficiently warm waters to obtain tropical character."

Invest 90-L:
"In late September, a major longwave upper trough dominated the eastern North American continent. A northwest-to-southeast oriented fragment of the upper trough supported a deeply-occluded surface cyclone that was located well east-southeast of Newfoundland. After amplifying into an upper low and aligning with the surface cyclone, it became a deep-layered low pressure system that was elongated east-to-west. The deep-layered low produced two rounds of weather for the Azores, the first occurring on September 29 as a vigorous frontal boundary passed eastward over the islands. The second round occurred as the center of the deep-layered vortex became better organized and headed eastward over the Azores.
On October 1, the deep-layered low was monitored for further acquisition of tropical characteristics while displaying an organizing storm core that featured an intermittent banding-type eye..."

Its seems these type of storms develop from a precursor deeply-occluded extratropical cyclone. The occluded front (a warm slot) allows for a central low-level warm core, but an upper-level cold core low makes it subtropical in nature. I guess in the case of Vince, the warm core was vertical enough such that it was fully tropical. But if occlusion is the only need for a low-level warm core, does that mean we can get tropical cyclones even over cool waters, or should we not bother classifying these types of developments as tropical?


They can form from occlusion or seclusion as in the subtropical Pacific.
117. IKE
6-10 day temperature outlook....




8-14 day temperature outlook....

456, thoughts on potential TC formation in the Carib. next week, my friend? Thanks in advance, :).
Quoting IKE:
6-10 day temperature outlook....




8-14 day temperature outlook....



That's surprisingly warm, oh well, so much for that cold front, :).
weather456~ We see extratropical storms hit the gulf stream way up north, sometimes near Greenland that strengthen & fire convection close to the center, even look much more warm core than 90L by eye & phase diagram..even boast air temps higher than surrounding areas unlike 90L right now, but not tropical because SST is below 23ºC. It's a threshold, a line..warmer than or not, a way to quantify & classify.. 90L hasn't made it over that line.

I know it's petty & I don't mean to start anything here, I totally respect you. This same argument is probably going on between them at NHC..it does beg to change a threshold but then we have to look through history & possibly reclassify others.. & then where do you draw the line? At what point is the air & water of a classic looking STS not just too cold. Living in the tropics if I'm in a storm freezing cause I don't have a jacket on (yeah that happens somewhere around 70ºs) it just doesn't feel tropical anymore no matter what it looks like on a graph or satelite..
NCHurricane2009,

Also, systems can produce deep convection over cooler ssts through

Conditional Instability of the Second Kind (CISK) - This convection is fed by strong latent and sensible heat fluxes resulting from a large difference between air and sea surface temperature and due to high wind speed.
Hurricane Research Division

Back to Basic Definitions Page | Back to Main FAQ Page


Subject: A18) What is a neutercane?

Contributed by Neal Dorst

A neutercane is a small (meso-)scale (< 100 miles in diameter) low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical cyclone and mid-latitude or extratropical cyclone. A subclass of sub-tropical cyclone, neutercanes are distinguished by their small size and their origination, sometimes forming within mesoscale convective complexes.

The term was coined by Robert Bundgaard, after he participated in a research flight in the early 1970's. He witnessed a small cyclonic circulation over land, which appeared to have both tropical and extratropical characteristics. He used the term in later discussions with Dr. Bob Simpson, then director of the National Hurricane Center. 'Neutercane' was meant to synthesize the word 'neutral' and 'hurricane' to imply a hurricane-like vortex which was midway between tropical and extratropical.

Juan had many arguing back then over Hybrid and Neutercane vs Hurricane.



From what I recall when I read the NHC's report on Hurricane Vince is that Vince was classified as a Hurricane because of its satellite appearance, (1) cirrus outflow in all quadrants and (2) its eye.

I guess the though at the NHC with Invest 90-L is that it doesn't have enough cirrus outflow, symmetry, or an eye to be classified. I guess with these type of systems in this location, its all about how the NHC sees the satellite appearance.
Quoting Skyepony:
weather456~ We see extratropical storms hit the gulf stream way up north, sometimes near Greenland that strengthen & fire convection close to the center, even look much more warm core than 90L by eye & phase diagram..even boast air temps higher than surrounding areas unlike 90L right now, but not tropical because SST is below 23%uFFFDC. It's a threshold, a line..warmer than or not, a way to quantify & classify.. 90L hasn't made it over that line.

I know it's petty & I don't mean to start anything here, I totally respect you. This same argument is probably going on between them at NHC..it does beg to change a threshold but then we have to look through history & possibly reclassify others.. & then where do you draw the line? At what point is the air & water of a classic looking STS not just too cold. Living in the tropics if I'm in a storm freezing cause I don't have a jacket on (yeah that happens somewhere around 70%uFFFDs) it just doesn't feel tropical anymore no matter what it looks like on a graph or satelite..


Systems near Greenland as I said before have warm-cores but they are not subtropical or tropical becuz they have more non-tropical features than tropical. For one, they are baroclinic.

You cannot use 23C to define a line, there is no line when it comes to classifying systems because not all systems are perfect. For instant, a tropical depression does not have specific winds of 30, 33, 36 mph, its either 25, 30 or 35 mph. And to say SSTs were too cold when it was 22C is an exaggeration, what is the biggest difference between 22 and 23C when the system is producing convection as if it was over 24C?

So how come Vince was classified over 23C, isn't the threshold for tropical systems 26C?


Second, the system was over 23C here, why was not it classified?

Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
The argument against 90L is weak considering the amount of evidence that it was a subtropical cyclone. For instant using Dvorak T numbers from more than 24 hrs ago to support your thinking? There is no hard cold evidence to support otherwise so that argument is weak. It seems more like an excuse.


The reason I posted T# for more than 24hrs old was to show when T#s were high the phase analysis was well in the cold core section & now when the dvorak #s are too weak to even support an STD the phase analyisis is barely tropical in nature. They were ment to be used together.. In the the Phase analysis the storm is born at A, C is current, Z is end of run..

If the storm was still strong enough for a T number I would have posted that too but it's not...
Hey folks. Per JTWC TY Parma is now forecast to meander around just NE of the Luzon for the next 5 days!

Quoting Weather456:
NCHurricane2009,

Also, systems can produce deep convection over cooler ssts through

Conditional Instability of the Second Kind (CISK) - This convection is fed by strong latent and sensible heat fluxes resulting from a large difference between air and sea surface temperature and due to high wind speed.


Can CISK also occur with systems at high-latitudes such that they resemble tropical cyclone's with good convection and an eye, or are the waters too cold for polar cyclones to develop deep convection from CISK?
Parma Rainbow still Image

Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Can CISK also occur with systems at high-latitudes such that they resemble tropical cyclone's with good convection and an eye, or are the waters too cold for polar cyclones to develop deep convection from CISK?


Yeah,
A polar low produces convection through CISK

but the biggest difference is, polar lows' warm core form from the transportation of secluded warm air.

Subtropical cyclones now, form their warm-core from the generation of deep convection.
Vince also had a warmer air temp then the surrounding areas.
132. JLPR
Quoting Bordonaro:
Hey folks. Per JTWC TY Parma is now forecast to meander around just NE of the Luzon for the next 5 days!


yes
that is no good :|
you posted the same image xD
deleted mine :0)
Quoting JLPR:


yes
that is no good :|
you posted the same image xD
deleted mine :0)

You can add it back again, that's fine.

TY Parma's center now appears to be offshore, just NW of Luzon, and it appears convection is already increasing in the SW portion of the storm.

Kuddo's to the Philippine Government for their efforts to keep their people safe, FEMA are you watching?
Quoting Weather456:


Yeah,
A polar low produces convection through CISK

but the biggest difference is, polar lows' warm core form from the transportation of secluded warm air.

Subtropical cyclones now, form their warm-core from the generation of deep convection.


So, when looking at a particular cyclone, how can you tell if its producing a warm core from convective latent heat release (subtropical), and how can you tell if its producing a warm core from advection of secluded warm air (polar)?
The polar low producing convection through CISK also shows up as a warm core system on the phase analysis but gets no name, perhaps again without a jacket one would be cold..

23ºC as a threshold sticks in my head, it's mentioned on Wikipedia as the line, which I try not to source.. DR Masters mentioned yesterday that the waters were around 23º & there for too chilly..



137. JLPR
Quoting Bordonaro:

You can add it back again, that's fine.

TY Parma's center now appears to be offshore, just NW of Luzon, and it appears convection is already increasing in the SW portion of the storm.

Kuddo's to the Philippine Government for their efforts to keep their people safe, FEMA are you watching?


it looks like there is going to be a lot of rain for that area and they don't need it :|
Tried posting MISTAT picture, I made a boo-boo!

TY Melor is looking real well organized and TY Parma is showing convection increase in the SW quadrant.
Quoting Weather456:




???? That looks like a textbook STS to me. What data is there AGAINST it? too weak?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


So, when looking at a particular cyclone, how can you tell if its producing a warm core from convective latent heat release (subtropical), and how can you tell if its producing a warm core from advection of secluded warm air (polar)?


their genesis - meteorological and geographic formation

For one, polar lows form well north of the polar font while subtropical cyclones form south of the polar front

Polar lows form in the cold season and subtropical cyclones form in the warm season.

Polar lows are vertically warm-core while subtropical systems are shallow warm-core systems.
Quoting Skyepony:
The polar low producing convection through CISK also shows up as a warm core system on the phase analysis but gets no name, perhaps again without a jacket one would be cold..

23ºC as a threshold sticks in my head, it's mentioned on Wikipedia as the line, which I try not to source.. DR Masters mentioned yesterday that the waters were around 23º & there for too chilly..





ok, I have to acknowledge and respect that you follow the 23C threshold which is not wrong at all. But I still think this threshold is too narrow to classified such a broad system. The evidence to support a subtropical system still remains more than those that oppose it.
Quoting JLPR:


it looks like there is going to be a lot of rain for that area and they don't need it :|

AussieStorm posted an article earlier on the Philippine situation, the affected area susceptible to flooding was evacuated.

But, you're 100% correct, they don't need 5 days of heavy rain.
Quoting Skyepony:
The polar low producing convection through CISK also shows up as a warm core system on the phase analysis but gets no name, perhaps again without a jacket one would be cold..

23C as a threshold sticks in my head, it's mentioned on Wikipedia as the line, which I try not to source.. DR Masters mentioned yesterday that the waters were around 23 & there for too chilly..





In addition, the reason why polar lows don't get named is basically when, how and where they form. You and I know that polar lows and Greenland systems don't deserve to be named so to compare them to 90L, I don't get. There were many subtropical systems that form in the vicinity of the Azores. For one text books imply that subtropical cyclones are features of the NE Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In the pacific they are called Kona Lows (Hawaiian in origin), and 90L fits the criteria well. Using 23C threshold is a technicality given the mounting evidence.
Quoting winter123:




???? That looks like a textbook STS to me. What data is there AGAINST it? too weak?


Read this page and part of the last page, you will find arguments to both sides.
I wish the blog could be like this everyday, civilised debates that benefit ones mind than destroy it.
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
I wish the blog could be like this everyday, civilised debates that benefit ones mind than destroy it.


lol, with all due respect, sometimes you cause a bit of trouble but otherwise you are right.
Quoting Weather456:


their genesis - meteorological and geographic formation

For one, polar lows form well north of the polar font while subtropical cyclones form south of the polar front

Polar lows form in the cold season and subtropical cyclones form in the warm season.

Polar lows are vertically warm-core while subtropical systems are shallow warm-core systems.


So, I guess I can conclude that there are four types of surface low pressure systems:

(1) The tropical cyclone: Produced by convective latent heat release in strong thunderstorms. The latent heat release produces a vertical warm core that causes a surface low pressure center and an upper-level high pressure cap (anticyclonic cirrus outflow). The outflow allows for continued drop in surface pressure, continued drop in surface pressure lets more low-level convergence happen for more thunderstorms, more thunderstorms fuels the vertical warm core, and the cycle goes on...

(2) The extratropical cyclone: The extratropical cyclone forms in a baroclinic environment (strong horizontal temperature gradient, i.e. along a frontal zone). Upper-level divergence from an upper trough causes a surface frontal low to form. As the surface frontal low strengthens, cold air pools off to the west, and the upper trough strenghtens to the west. Upper air divergence on the east side of the stronger upper trough continues to strengthen the surface low until the surface low gets deeply-occluded and migrates beneath the center of its parent upper trough.

(3) The subtropical cyclone: If the extratropical cyclone deeply-occludes over warm waters, it can pull in low-level warm, moist air, which triggers deep convection over the center. The convection triggers a low-level warm core, but the parent upper trough/low aloft is cold core. So the sytem is subtropical, not tropical. If the warm core continues to build vertically, it becomes tropical.

(4) The polar low: If the extratropical cyclone deeply-occludes over cold waters, its stays non-troipcal. The polar low may advect in secluded warm air to the southeast (maybe from an occluded front attached to it). In some cases, the warm air advected in is in strong contrast to the cold water, triggering CISK. The CISK may cause convection such that the polar low appears like a tropical cyclone.

Did I get this right?
Pursuant to our earlier conversation...



Link
149. IKE
Kennedy Space Center Begins Layoffs


CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- Layoffs have begun at the Kennedy Space Center.

United Space Alliance, a private company that employs many shuttle workers, will lay off 277 people in the coming weeks.

All but 19 voluntarily accepted the loss of their jobs by taking early retirement.

The space shuttle program is scheduled to retire next year.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


So, I guess I can conclude that there are four types of surface low pressure systems:

(1) The tropical cyclone: Produced by convective latent heat release in strong thunderstorms. The latent heat release produces a vertical warm core that causes a surface low pressure center and an upper-level high pressure cap (anticyclonic cirrus outflow). The outflow allows for continued drop in surface pressure, continued drop in surface pressure lets more low-level convergence happen for more thunderstorms, more thunderstorms fuels the vertical warm core, and the cycle goes on...

(2) The extratropical cyclone: The extratropical cyclone forms in a baroclinic environment (strong horizontal temperature gradient, i.e. along a frontal zone). Upper-level divergence from an upper trough causes a surface frontal low to form. As the surface frontal low strengthens, cold air pools off to the west, and the upper trough strenghtens to the west. Upper air divergence on the east side of the stronger upper trough continues to strengthen the surface low until the surface low gets deeply-occluded and migrates beneath the center of its parent upper trough.

(3) The subtropical cyclone: If the extratropical cyclone deeply-occludes over warm waters, it can pull in low-level warm, moist air, which triggers deep convection over the center. The convection triggers a low-level warm core, but the parent upper trough/low aloft is cold core. So the sytem is subtropical, not tropical. If the warm core continues to build vertically, it becomes tropical.

(4) The polar low: If the extratropical cyclone deeply-occludes over cold waters, its stays non-troipcal. The polar low may advect in secluded warm air to the southeast (maybe from an occluded front attached to it). In some cases, the warm air advected in is in strong contrast to the cold water, triggering CISK. The CISK may cause convection such that the polar low appears like a tropical cyclone.

Did I get this right?


Basically yea, and all can transitioned between each other for example, a subtropical and polar low forms from extratropical cyclones while tropical cyclones can transition to extratropical cyclones.

And there is a warm seclusion type system which is characteristic as a bent-backed warm front, this is basically a strong convective extratropical cyclone. Maria 2005 was a warm seclusion late in its cycle.
NCHurricane09

If you want to see all the types go here, there are 6 including a mesocyclone (related to tornadoes)
Quoting Weather456:
NCHurricane09

If you want to see all the types go here, there are 6 including a mesocyclone (related to tornadoes)


Thanks for that article.

I guess one last question I've got is when looking at Invest 90-L, I am struggling to see the difference.

On one hand, it looks like a subtropical cyclone because its got central convection, maybe the central convection is making it have a warm-core at the surface (there is a cold core upper low aloft). On the other hand, how can you readily tell if Invest 90-L's convection is a result of CISK (polar case) or a result of pulling in warm, moist low-level air which converges at the center (subtropical case)?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Thanks for that article.

I guess one last question I've got is when looking at Invest 90-L, I am struggling to see the difference.

On one hand, it looks like a subtropical cyclone because its got central convection, maybe the central convection is making it have a warm-core at the surface (there is a cold core upper low aloft). On the other hand, how can you readily tell if Invest 90-L's convection is a result of CISK (polar case) or a result of pulling in warm, moist low-level air which converges at the center (subtropical case)?


There is no evidence to suggest the seclusion of warm air with a polar airmass. It is easier than one thinks, your judgment alone can verify these systems. They are very close that is why I mostly use their geographic location to distinguished between the 2.
weather 456~ Yes my stance in nearly all that it's just too cold.. that & when it was stronger it wasn't a shallow warm core..

I remember early on a 'cane season having the tail of a deep front wrap up & started looking like it'd come screamin up the east side of FL. On satellite it looked like transition done~ firing from the center, well stacked, looked better on phase analysis than 90L does now. I was like why isn't this even a STS? It quickly got here & was chilly. It felt like a nor'easter from the ground, before satellite no one would have thought of it as anything different...

it's 68ºF barely to the ese of former 90L right now, 6 hrs past it's high for the day of 73º

Nearly 90 here today, I'm ready for another cool front.. it's been fun but I better cook something. Maybe it will get a mention in the post analysis but no one hold your breathe.. I don't think Wallace even mentioned it in the TWD today.
Quoting Skyepony:
weather 456~ Yes my stance in nearly all that it's just too cold.. that & when it was stronger it wasn't a shallow warm core..

I remember early on a 'cane season having the tail of a deep front wrap up & started looking like it'd come screamin up the east side of FL. On satellite it looked like transition done~ firing from the center, well stacked, looked better on phase analysis than 90L does now. I was like why isn't this even a STS? It quickly got here & was chilly. It felt like a nor'easter from the ground, before satellite no one would have thought of it as anything different...

it's 68ºF barely to the ese of former 90L right now, 6 hrs past it's high for the day of 73º

Nearly 90 here today, I'm ready for another cool front.. it's been fun but I better cook something. Maybe it will get a mention in the post analysis but no one hold your breathe.. I don't think Wallace even mentioned it in the TWD today.


yea

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2009 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 16:32:47 N Lon : 142:51:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 892.7mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.2 7.5 7.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 2.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : 15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.2T/18hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Quoting Drakoen:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2009 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 16:32:47 N Lon : 142:51:02 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 892.7mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.2 7.5 7.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 2.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : 15.5C Cloud Region Temp : -79.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 3.2T/18hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF




Wow. Very impressive.
So I guess in the case of Invest 90-L, its a warm air seclusion while distinctly cooler air surronds it (more polar-like or frontal like). In the case of a subtropical storm, there is a warm core, but its not like there is sharp temperature contrasts around the warm core?
Good evening...
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
So I guess in the case of Invest 90-L, its a warm air seclusion while distinctly cooler air surronds it (more polar-like or frontal like). In the case of a subtropical storm, there is a warm core, but its not like there is sharp temperature contrasts around the warm core?


I think you have it mixed up

Polar Lows and subtropical cyclone can generate their convection through CISK but the origin of their warm-cores differ. Read back through the last 2 pages and remember we are discussing the differences in warm-core not how they generate convection.
161. P451
Quoting Weather456:


This is as good as it gets. Refusing to name an obvious tropical system - even if sub tropical - it is there. But, well, I guess the STS doesn't meet their criteria. We've been over that so I won't start that again you know what I think.

Again, yesterday's image:



If THAT is not worthy of naming than neither was Danny, Erika, Claudette, etc. Yet, the NHC wanted us to believe that Danny was a strengthening 60mph TS - but that this system which has a far more impressive satellite presentation isn't even worthy of discussion? If that image I keep posting isn't one of a tropical system then only Bill and Fred were tropical systems this season and they need to DE-Classify everything else this year. I really wish we could hear a candid explanation as to why 90L wasn't worthy of naming. I could hear it now though "The Azores? Who cares. 22C waters? Not tropical. NEXT."

Meh....you'd swear some of the Florida wishcasters on here were in charge of the season. "What, it's not threatening Miami? It's not tropical and doesn't exist." :/


CURRENT IMAGERY:

Rainbow and RGB (of which you can see a nicely stacked system, LLC and upper level convection coupled in the first few visible frames)



So, does Invest 90-L have a warm core?

If it does, do you think it is being produced by seclusion of warm air? or is it being produced by convectiev latent heat release?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
So, does Invest 90-L have a warm core?

If it does, do you think it is being produced by seclusion of warm air? or is it being produced by convectiev latent heat release?


Yea 90L has warm core and it is convective based since there is no seclusion of warm air within a polar airmass.
Good evening!

Melor grown a well defined eye.
03/2030 UTC 16.7N 143.1E T7.0/7.0 MELOR -- West Pacific

7: 140 KTS 161 MPH 898 mb Category 5


166. P451
One final note on the SST reasoning. We all know we can get a thunderstorm in winter if we have the proper temperature difference between the surface and upper levels of the atmosphere.

So why is this theory NOT applied to tropical systems? If the upper levels are cold enough to allow 22C waters to develop a tropical cyclone - why is it not a tropical cyclone?

That is where they are dropping the ball and being as stubborn as can be.

We're talking about rising air here. Temperature difference is the catalyst - not just simply the surface temperature.



P451,

if you read this page and the last page, I have exhausted almost all reasons why this should be named. Frankly I describe this situation as utterly whacked. There are other forums out there that feeling the same way as us here.
Quoting P451:
One final note on the SST reasoning. We all know we can get a thunderstorm in winter if we have the proper temperature difference between the surface and upper levels of the atmosphere.

So why is this theory NOT applied to tropical systems? If the upper levels are cold enough to allow 22C waters to develop a tropical cyclone - why is it not a tropical cyclone?

That is where they are dropping the ball and being as stubborn as can be.

We're talking about rising air here. Temperature difference is the catalyst - not just simply the surface temperature.





Perfect, as along as the lapse rate supports convection why are we stressing on 22 vs 23?
Quoting presslord:
Pursuant to our earlier conversation...



Link


Way to go Presslord!
Quoting Weather456:


Yea 90L has warm core and it is convective based since there is no seclusion of warm air within a polar airmass.


456, thanks a bunch for the clarifications :)

Now, I am wondering why the NHC doesn't classify this as a subtropical storm? Its got a convectively based warm core at the low-levels. I guess the NHC likes to draw the line at 23 deg C water, is that how they do it?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
TYPHOON MELOR (T0918)
6:00 AM JST October 4 2009
================================

Subject: Category Four Typhoon Near Marianas Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Melor (925 hPa) located at 16.6N 143.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west at 14 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm-Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 18.3N 137.0E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
45 HRS: 21.4N 132.8E - 100 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 25.4N 131.0E - 95 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Quoting P451:
One final note on the SST reasoning. We all know we can get a thunderstorm in winter if we have the proper temperature difference between the surface and upper levels of the atmosphere.

So why is this theory NOT applied to tropical systems? If the upper levels are cold enough to allow 22C waters to develop a tropical cyclone - why is it not a tropical cyclone?

That is where they are dropping the ball and being as stubborn as can be.

We're talking about rising air here. Temperature difference is the catalyst - not just simply the surface temperature.





I just appreciate how you and Skyepony explained your positions in such a way that those of us less knowledgeable could understand you.
173. amd
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


456, thanks a bunch for the clarifications :)

Now, I am wondering why the NHC doesn't classify this as a subtropical storm? Its got a convectively based warm core at the low-levels. I guess the NHC likes to draw the line at 23 deg C water, is that how they do it?


this is why:

Notice the occluded front still attached to the low

And, much of the strong winds are quite a bit north of the system, and are probably induced due to the pressure gradient between the 996 mb low and the 1018 mb high.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


456, thanks a bunch for the clarifications :)

Now, I am wondering why the NHC doesn't classify this as a subtropical storm? Its got a convectively based warm core at the low-levels. I guess the NHC likes to draw the line at 23 deg C water, is that how they do it?


I'm not sure why the NHC is not classifying the system, they have not given us a reason, not even in a TWO. If they are basing it on 23C, that is ridiculous, weather cannot be define by 1 single line.

Ask yourself this question, what is the difference between 110 mph cat 2 and a 115 mph cat 3 hurricane.

What is the difference between 22C and 23C waters.

What is the difference between 5.9 inches and 6.0 inches of rain.
175. jipmg
Oh my god 898mb pressure 0-0..

the thing is headed towards japan?
Presslord has started a good thing:


"The National Crime Prevention Council's definition of cyber-bullying is "when the Internet, cell phones or other devices are used to send or post text or images intended to hurt or embarrass another person."

I am becoming increasingly concerned about instances of this I see in the WeatherUnderground blogosphere. I believe it is becoming more common...and nastier. And, particularly in light of the number of young people who read and participate, the potential for real danger is present. Although by no means are all of the victims kids.

So I've created this blog in an attempt to address the issue.

Please copy, paste and WU mail me cyberbullying attacks whenever you see them here. And I will forward them to WunderBlogAdmin while deleting your identity. In this way, they can see the problem in a clear and focused way...and those reporting abuses will be protected.

I am not going to allow comments, as I don't want this to be a forum for personal score settling.

I have a great fondness for the WU community. And cannot stand for it to be sullied by bullies.

This may all be to no avail. But I believe if one is not part of the solution, then one is part of the problem.

So...let's see where it goes."

I suggest we pass this along every so often so that everyone becomes aware of it. There are not a lot of people on the blog right now, so help spread the word to others you know.

Thanks

Long-Range Forecast shows MELOR just entering the NE corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility

---
just close enough to the Philippines for PAGASA to name Typhoon Melor "Quedan" early next week.
Quoting amd:


this is why:

Notice the occluded front still attached to the low

And, much of the strong winds are quite a bit north of the system, and are probably induced due to the pressure gradient between the 996 mb low and the 1018 mb high.



1. Aren't occluded lows a characteristic of mid-latitude cyclones and don't subtropical cyclones have characteristics of both tropical and mid-latitude systems, which has fronts.

2. Aren't occluded lows the sign of a decaying mid-latitude system.

3. Does the satellite presentation support this feature being tied to a front.

4. Is there a temperature contrast along 90L, the last time I check occluded lows have uniformed temperatures.

4. Subtropical cyclones have some sort of frontal feature to their NW.

5. QS showed the strongest winds near a very well define LLCC.

Go to entry 148 to find Presslord's link for his note that I quoted.
The map in post 115 and the map that the link in post 173 leads to may have the answer as to the NHC's thinking?

If there is an occluded front attached to the surface low in the analysis, the NHC might be thinking the warm core is produced by seclusion instead of convective latent heat release. I have studied how the analyze warm and cold fronts, but how do they determine the location of occluded fronts in the surface analyses?
Quoting Ameister12:
Good evening!

Melor grown a well defined eye.


Thank you, Drak. Now there's something that deserves mention, as oppose to the insignificant swirl out in the middle of nowhere that's been getting quite a bit of spotlight in here today, surreal.
...TYPHOON MELOR MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...

THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR AGRIHAN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

---
yes moving away from Marianas just in time before reaching "Super" Typhoon stage
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Thank you, Drak. Now there's something that deserves mention, as oppose to the insignificant swirl out in the middle of nowhere that's been getting quite a bit of spotlight in here today, surreal.


So what? They can talk about anything they want. It is pathetic that Drak created you to improve his image.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Thank you, Drak. Now there's something that deserves mention, as oppose to the insignificant swirl out in the middle of nowhere that's been getting quite a bit of spotlight in here today, surreal.


Yeah, I did note on the side how crazy Typhoon Melor has gotten. How often in the west-pac do typhoons get below 900 mb?
NCHurricane with the JMA pressure, NEVER
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Thank you, Drak. Now there's something that deserves mention, as oppose to the insignificant swirl out in the middle of nowhere that's been getting quite a bit of spotlight in here today, surreal.


There are persons who are talking about the typhoon and most of us are well aware that there is one, but we can have debate about any weather-related happenings.
187. amd
Quoting Weather456:



1. Aren't occluded lows a characteristic of mid-latitude cyclones and don't subtropical cyclones have characteristics of both tropical and mid-latitude systems, which has fronts.

2. Aren't occlude lows the sign of a decaying mid-latitude system.

3. QS showed the strongest winds near a very well define LLCC.


1) according to the nhc's definition of subtropical systems, any system that is still attached to a front cannot be a subtropical system. Yes, subtropical systems have characteristics of both tropical system (warm core), while they have some cold core characteristics (Strong winds well away from the center).

now yeah, occluded lows are a characteristic of mid-latitude lows.

2) Yeah, occulded lows are associated with decaying mid-latitude systems, and in years like 1984, and 2005, had a nasty habit of sinking into the subtropics and developing enough convection to form tropical systems.

3) Actually, I'm not so sure about that. Looks like to me that there is 2 or 3 strong wind barbs near the LLC, while there is a large expansion of strong winds north of the system, which is a textbook example of winds being generated by a pressure gradient.

Updated quikscat for the north atlantic
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
NCHurricane with the JMA pressure, NEVER


I think it is stronger than the what the JMA shows. The objective and subjective Dvorak readings support a stronger cyclone with maximum sustained winds near 165mph and a minimum central pressure around 896mb.
189. SLU
Well after sitting back and reading all of the posts about 90L over the last few hours I think it's safe to say that 2009 will not go down as one of the NHC's better years of weather forecasting and naming of tropical/sub tropical cyclones. 90L now makes it about 4 systems this year which deserved to be named but were not. Maybe they might have been named in another year but not 2009. Looks like we're going to have several systems redesignated during the post season analysis and there's little excuse for this given all the technology at our finger tips now that we are in 2009 and not 1909.

19W Jangmi チャンミー
STY 9月24日-10月1日 115kts, 905hPa

---
This is the lowest I've seen pressure-wise
Draken give it time, The JMA full advisory is in 2 hrs
Quoting SLU:
Well after sitting back and reading all of the posts about 90L over the last few hours I think it's safe to say that 2009 will not go down as one of the NHC's better years of weather forecasting and naming of tropical/sub tropical cyclones. 90L now makes it about 4 systems this year which deserved to be named but were not. Maybe they might have been named in another year but not 2009. Looks like we're going to have several systems redesignated during the post season analysis and there's little excuse for this given all the technology at our finger tips now that we are in 2009 and not 1909.



That image was from last night but here is the last visible and latest infrared from tonight



Keep in mind the Dvorak is not even centered in the absolute center of the system. Very powerful rapidly intensifying cyclone.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2009 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 16:37:00 N Lon : 142:43:18 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 892.7mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.2 7.2 7.2


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : 2.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : 7.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Quoting IKE:
Kennedy Space Center Begins Layoffs


CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- Layoffs have begun at the Kennedy Space Center.

United Space Alliance, a private company that employs many shuttle workers, will lay off 277 people in the coming weeks.

All but 19 voluntarily accepted the loss of their jobs by taking early retirement.

The space shuttle program is scheduled to retire next year.


Very unlikely that the Space Shuttle will end in 2010, more like mid-2012 or 2013.
Oops, I had a misunderstanding. I was looking at post 165, which had a Dvorak number of 7 and a central pressuer below 900 mb. I guess that is not in the official advisories of Melor yet, wonder if it will.

Actually, I was looking at the JTWC advisories on Melor, but I can't see where they post there current central pressure readings like they do in NHC products. Does anyone know?
The weather is very nice at whatever stadium it is in which LSU just made a touchdown with like 40 seconds I nice weather to go.
Quoting presslord:
Pursuant to our earlier conversation...



Link


Admirable attempt. Good Luck! Hope it works.
To add information on the ongoing debate, here is a 17mb pdf from the NHC

Cyclone Types:
What do they mean and how do we forecast them?


Also the non tropical low (as previously described by NHC) is outside of NWS area so it is not discussed in any of their products. It is briefly mentioned by METEO-FRANCE

Thundery low 1000 40N30W, slow moving, expected 999 39N28W by 04/12UTC.
201. SLU
Quoting Weather456:


That image was from last night but here is the last visible and latest infrared from tonight





lol sorry. i forgot to check the date and time before posting

Well that visible image from today looks even better. Only Bill and Fred this year have looked better than this system. I agree with you 100% .. this should be subtropical storm Grace by now. Or at least the NHC should say something about it and explain why they are not paying any respect to it.
Quoting SLU:


lol sorry. i forgot to check the date and time before posting

Well that visible image from today looks even better. Only Bill and Fred this year have looked better than this system. I agree with you 100% .. this should be subtropical storm Grace by now. Or at least the NHC should say something about it and explain why they are not paying any respect to it.


And Weather456 has some very strong arguments to why it should of been named even stronger than stupid excuse of 22C waters. The NHC is a waste of tax payers money.
203. SLU
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


And Weather456 has some very strong arguments to why it should of been named even stronger than stupid excuse of 22C waters. The NHC is a waste of tax payers money.


lol .. i'm glad it's not my tax money
NCHurricane

Melor
125kts-929mb-16.5N-143.8E 2130z (from NRL)

20W Melor directory list (bottom of page is recent data)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2009 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 16:33:22 N Lon : 142:29:19 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 888.9mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.3 7.2 7.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +13.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
we r about to get hit wit some heavy rains and hail etc... mabye tornado there r lots of warnings
Never got a reply back from the NHC regarding ex-90L. Anyone willing to also email them?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Never got a reply back from the NHC regarding ex-90L. Anyone willing to also email them?


It will take a few days. I've emailed them in the past.
Anyone know were to get images of the WPAC? I want to watch the typhoon explode with sat images infront of me.
Hi everyone. I have been gone quite awhile. Hello Weather456, nrtiwlnvragn, Drakoen, TexnowNM and WeatherStudent. If I have not acknowledged the others, it is just that there are so many new handles which I do not recognize. I shall not be posting much, just wanted to say I miss our bantering. Anyone willing to give a two-liner update?
212. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 032330
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE


no mention of 90L
Evening everyone.

I looked in earlier but didn't get a chance to post (no reason to, really).

Drak, that pic of Melor is fab. Amazing how good the WPac storms have been looking in the sat imagery.

Glad to see Parma downgraded to a cat 1, but I'm hoping it gets out of the Philippines area a little faster than forecast. Hopefully there won't be too much flooding either way.
""[The National Hurricane center] seems to be naming a lot more than they used to. This year, I would put four storms in the very questionable category, and maybe even six. In the past, we would have waited to see if another observation supported naming the system. We would have been a little more conservative."

Neil Frank, National Hurricane Center Director, 1974-1987.

215. JRRP


Quoting JRRP:



!@#$, not good, thoughts, all?
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


And Weather456 has some very strong arguments to why it should of been named even stronger than stupid excuse of 22C waters. The NHC is a waste of tax payers money.


How about the upper 60's air temps? I usually associate a TS or even a STD to getting in Air Conditioning to be comfortable..
218. beell
Named tropical at 40N 30W?
Does not look like one from this satellite perspective.
SSD IR Loop
Several areas could see a surge of less than a meter surge with Olaf.
220. JLPR
impressive
this one is going to my images archive :)

221. JLPR
and im guessing this is the area some models are picking up

Quoting JLPR:
impressive
this one is going to my images archive :)

I can see why.
Quoting JRRP:


NO tropical storm formation , in the next 48 hours, according to the NHC, what is that?
224. JLPR
Quoting jurakantaino:
NO tropical storm formation , in the next 48 hours, according to the NHC, what is that?


well the NHC has said that and TCs still form xD
Quoting Canekid98:
we r about to get hit wit some heavy rains and hail etc... mabye tornado there r lots of warnings


Stay safe! I hope you have your place ready in case you need to hide from a tornado! Can't help but be a little bossy at times like this. :)
Quoting JLPR:
impressive
this one is going to my images archive :)



cant wait for the MODIS shots.
Quoting JLPR:
and im guessing this is the area some models are picking up

Some MODELS are taking it right over PR, right?
5 day OFCL wind map forecast for Parma..

rust color being cat 1 winds..

Humans take a commanding lead over the models in forecasting Perma

Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
JTWC INCREASING 55.3 109.8 189.3 286.7 242.5
MM5E DECREASING 96.5 139.9 150.8 205.7 -1
KHRM DECREASING 99.6 156.8 273 403.6 374.5
MM5B INCREASING 101.4 146 183.1 242.8 -1
Quoting JLPR:
and im guessing this is the area some models are picking up



on the eastern edge of the image
Hurricane Warning just posted for the Miami, FL area.

More to follow...

(Hopefully this one doesn't dissipate like the one last week in Virginia)
Quoting WeatherStudent:


!@#$, not good, thoughts, all?


Nothing to worry about right now since nothing has developed yet and even though most models show this, no model shows this being a strong system. Just wait and see whether something actually forms from that disturbance coming across the ITCZ before we give serious consideration to the computer models.
232. JLPR
Quoting jurakantaino:
Some MODELS are taking it right over PR, right?


im not sure, haven't been paying much attention to it :P
Quoting JLPR:


well the NHC has said that and TCs still form xD
Agree, this is not the best year for the NHC.
Quoting Grothar:
Hi everyone. I have been gone quite awhile. Hello Weather456, nrtiwlnvragn, Drakoen, TexnowNM and WeatherStudent. If I have not acknowledged the others, it is just that there are so many new handles which I do not recognize. I shall not be posting much, just wanted to say I miss our bantering. Anyone willing to give a two-liner update?
Everyone is talking about what should have been classified and why it was not. they are also saying the nhc is doing a bad job.
235. JRRP
Quoting jurakantaino:
Some MODELS are taking it right over PR, right?

some models yes and some models no
236. JLPR
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Nothing to worry about right now since nothing has developed yet and even though most models show this, no model shows this being a strong system. Just wait and see whether something actually forms from that disturbance coming across the ITCZ before we give serious consideration to the computer models.


the comment of the day :)
its looking interesting, but as you said there is nothing yet
237. JRRP


im out
have a nice day
Quoting mossyhead:
Everyone is talking about what should have been classified and why it was not. they are also saying the nhc is doing a bad job.


Not everyone is saying the NHC is doing a bad job. They have been consistent this year in not designating/naming marginal systems. As long as they stay consistent, I am fine with it. I think it has to do with the new position of Branch Chief, sort of a technical supervisor over the forecasters.
239. JLPR
Quoting JRRP:


i�m out
have a nice day


the second quickscat is the correct one, and it dint catch the disturbance, oh well lets wait till the next one then =P
Quoting jurakantaino:
NO tropical storm formation , in the next 48 hours, according to the NHC, what is that?
Guess they don't expect it to do anything anytime soon... just drift west as a Twave, maybe...
Melor surge

Wind forecast map

Humans lead the best track forecast with Melor too.

Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
JTWC DECREASING 54.2 85.2 86.2 116.8 -1
MM5B DECREASING 67 91.7 71.4 136.3 -1
KHRM DECREASING 85 157.6 204.5 204.1 -1
There is no reason to put anything on that wave, the shear is just too much for most waves to survive. At bear minimum the wave will be in 20kts for a majority duration that it exists. Possible a scant few hours in lower but that remains to be seen.
Quoting mossyhead:
Everyone is talking about what should have been classified and why it was not. they are also saying the nhc is doing a bad job.


Do you write Technical Manuals. When I asked for a two-liner, I got one. Clear, concise and to the point. I lllllllllllike it! Thanks.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Nothing to worry about right now since nothing has developed yet and even though most models show this, no model shows this being a strong system. Just wait and see whether something actually forms from that disturbance coming across the ITCZ before we give serious consideration to the computer models.


Agreed and understood, 456. But it's the ECMWF Model, the model of all mothers. Should we just disregard it's solution for now or what?
Unless the coming MJO pulse is strong 1 morestorm is basically it imo, shear looks very hostile, too hostile..
WS lol :P its mother of all x not x of all mothers.
Quoting Grothar:


Do you write Technical Manuals. When I asked for a two-liner, I got one. Clear, concise and to the point. I lllllllllllike it! Thanks.


G'evening!
and i'm out as quickly as I came. Melor looks like it may pass wilma in regards to MB although WPAC storms tend to get low MB's. night all.

edit: NHC is one of the most efficient agencies in the government period.
Quoting ElConando:
and i'm out as quickly as I came. Melor looks like it may pass wilma in regards to MB although WPAC storms tend to get low MB's. night all.

edit: NHC is one of the most efficient agencies in the government period.


TMI...


And I do think most ppl here are a little tough on the NHC. But they are a gov't agency and should be prepared to take the heat.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


G'evening!


Hey WS, how are you doing. Long time no hear! School going well?


AOI/XX/XX
MARK
12N/47W
I came back to shut down the computer and Dakster... you need to take your mind outta the gutter sometimes xD.
Quoting Dakster:
Hurricane Warning just posted for the Miami, FL area.

More to follow...

(Hopefully this one doesn't dissipate like the one last week in Virginia)
Quoting Dakster:


TMI...


And I do think most ppl here are a little tough on the NHC. But they are a gov't agency and should be prepared to take the heat.
they are part of noaa, which is a govt. agency.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey WS, how are you doing. Long time no hear! School going well?


Yes sir, thank you very much for asking. How are you and yours doing?
Quoting mossyhead:

they are part of noaa, which is a govt. agency.

sorry, i mis-read your qoute
No problem....
257. JLPR
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


AOI/XX/XX
MARK
12N/47W


The area behind that one should be an AOI =P

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS IS A
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A BROAD SWATH OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED BY THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS IS A WELL DEFINED LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC CURVATURE. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED IN THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 47W-52W.
The earthquake news just keeps getting worse.

In rural areas of Indonesia, weddings are communal, open-air affairs. Some 400 people attended the nuptials of a couple in Pulau Aiya, a village outside Padang, last Wednesday. Then the ground shook and swallowed everyone up.

We just had the most earthquakes for the day in the growing global swarm. Taiwan wins for the day for strongest with a 6.1. Calif's are more frequent & stronger , by far where most the action was with a shift well east late in the day, NC, TN & 2 recent strong 4s in the mid Atlantic ridge... Wonder what today holds..

Hey guys and gals, The NHC is the flagship agency for all Tropical Cyclones. When there is something out there, and they dont jump on it as fast as we like, doesnt mean thier slow on thier job. It doesnt mean thier perfect either, but thier pretty darn close.
The wave closer to 35W has an excellent invert-V pattern
261. IKE
If the NHC did designate or had designated 90L there would have been posts on here complaining about them designated a swirl.....NHC can't win.

Fortunately time marches on and this below-average season will soon be history.

262. 789
Quoting IKE:
If the NHC did designate or had designated 90L there would have been posts on here complaining about them designated a swirl.....NHC can't win.

Fortunately time marches on and this below-average season will soon be history.

you think they put away there cryola.s bet not
Quoting IKE:
If the NHC did designate or had designated 90L there would have been posts on here complaining about them designated a swirl.....NHC can't win.

Fortunately time marches on and this below-average season will soon be history.



You have done nothing but complain all season long. You are annoying like a bell ringing in ones ear. My gosh!
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Yes sir, thank you very much for asking. How are you and yours doing?


We are all well, thank you. Sorry I could not respond sooner. Proud of you WS.
I don't think anyone was bashing the NHC, just not agreeing with them and what's wrong with a below normal season. Some keep sounding as if it's a bad thing, disappointed and complaining.
Quoting Weather456:
The wave closer to 35W has an excellent invert-V pattern


Could that be what the latest ECMWF Model develops and takes it your way, 456? :)
Here's a recent cloudsat of the Atlantic AOI. Get the MJO over here & there could be trouble..



I left a good one of Parma's ribbon clouds yesterday, in my blog.
268. 789
Quoting Skyepony:
The earthquake news just keeps getting worse.

In rural areas of Indonesia, weddings are communal, open-air affairs. Some 400 people attended the nuptials of a couple in Pulau Aiya, a village outside Padang, last Wednesday. Then the ground shook and swallowed everyone up.

We just had the most earthquakes for the day in the growing global swarm. Taiwan wins for the day for strongest with a 6.1. Calif's are more frequent & stronger today, by far where most the action was today with a shift well east late in the day, NC, TN & 2 recent strong 4s in the mid Atlantic ridge... Wonder what today holds..

thanks for the update
Quoting Weather456:
The wave closer to 35W has an excellent invert-V pattern


Hey Weather456. This shall be my only day on the blog for a few weeks again. Just dropped in to say hello to a few people. Hope you are well. HEY IKE!!! Sorry for the yelling 456!
Quoting Grothar:


Hey Weather456. This shall be my only day on the blog for a few weeks again. Just dropped in to say hello to a few people. Hope you are well. HEY IKE!!! Sorry for the yelling 456!


I'm doing well.
271. IKE
Quoting 789:
you think they put away there cryola.s bet not


Nah...they've still got em.

Quoting Grothar:


Hey Weather456. This shall be my only day on the blog for a few weeks again. Just dropped in to say hello to a few people. Hope you are well. HEY IKE!!! Sorry for the yelling 456!


Hey!
Skyepony - That was really disturbing about the village swallowed up by the Earthquake.

I can only imagine the horror and pain many loved ones are going through. It is bad to lose one close family member or friend, I can't imagine losing all of your family members and friends.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey Weather456. This shall be my only day on the blog for a few weeks again. Just dropped in to say hello to a few people. Hope you are well. HEY IKE!!! Sorry for the yelling 456!


Hi Grothar, always nice to hear from you. Come on in whenever you can!
The 35W wave is more than likely just an ITCZ flareup.

Shear is rather high to its north.

Here NHC, just in case you can have my crayons.

276. JLPR
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The 35W wave is more than likely just an ITCZ flareup.

Shear is rather high to its north.



there is a wave there but if you mean that the ITCZ is enhancing the convection, yep I agree
Dakster~ That whole article was disturbing. Sounded like several villages gone.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Could that be what the latest ECMWF Model develops and takes it your way, 456? :)


Did you mention ECMWF! Thats means bussines. Link?
Evening all! We have quite an impressive Typhoon out there! Wow.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
TYPHOON MELOR (T0918)
9:00 AM JST October 4 2009
================================

Subject: Category Five Typhoon Near Marianas Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Melor (915 hPa) located at 16.6N 142.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 150 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west at 13 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Storm-Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
300 NM from the center in north quadrant
190 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 18.6N 136.1E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
48 HRS: 22.0N 131.5E - 100 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 25.9N 130.3E - 95 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)

---
3rd T7.0 this year from the JMA
Quoting InTheCone:


Hi Grothar, always nice to hear from you. Come on in whenever you can!


Thank you. Much appreciated. Looks like I have to leave just when a new wave is about to form. Take care and stay well.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Hey guys and gals, The NHC is the flagship agency for all Tropical Cyclones. When there is something out there, and they dont jump on it as fast as we like, doesnt mean thier slow on thier job. It doesnt mean thier perfect either, but thier pretty darn close.


Thank you. I just don't get why some folks get their nose out of joint so quickly on here when they feel they know more than the NHC. I just don't get it. They are always there when it counts.... ALWAYS
Quoting JLPR:


there is a wave there but if you mean that the ITCZ is enhancing the convection, yep I agree


Yes that is what I mean.
Quoting antonio28:


Did you mention ECMWF! Thats means bussines. Link?


Yup, that's why I'm concerned, that model is correct about 99.9 percent of the time. http://www.ecmwf.int/
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Yup, that's why I'm concerned, that model is correct about 99.9 percent of the time. http://www.ecmwf.int/


99.9.... man be for real.... a model correct 99.9 % of the time...
I get it now.... jokes on me
Quoting Weather456:
I don't think anyone was bashing the NHC, just not agreeing with them and what's wrong with a below normal season. Some keep sounding as if it's a bad thing, disappointed and complaining.
it's not the NHc it's the disgruntled ones that want storms
There is a better chance I die walking into a parked car than the EMCWF model does being correct 99.9% of the time.
Quoting tropics21:
it's not the NHc it's the disgruntled ones that want storms


Are you kidding? look at the data, NHC has missed at least 4 storms this season that by their criteria should have been named
291. jipmg
Quoting winter123:


Are you kidding? look at the data, NHC has missed at least 4 storms this season that by their criteria should have been named


yep, like that low that hit alabama or florida, had a 40 mph sustained wind, and it was tropical in nature..
Have there been any further updates on TY Parma? I know AussieStorm said he has a friend in Manila, I wonder if he's heard from him? Does anyone have any friends/family in the N Philippines? Has anyone been able to reach them?

TY Melor is at the threshold of being a CAT 5 Super-Typhoon. Poor Mariana Islands are getting hammered!


Quoting winter123:


Are you kidding? look at the data, NHC has missed at least 4 storms this season that by their criteria should have been named
wouldn't call them storms either IMO
from now on I think the NHC should classify all thunderstorms and give them names..... um just because ;-)
In your opinion it was but not the pros
296. JLPR
Quoting winter123:


Are you kidding? look at the data, NHC has missed at least 4 storms this season that by their criteria should have been named


After the season is over they do a review, there they decide if unnamed systems deserve the right to be called TCs
:)
145 kt 1 minute sustained winds makes Super Typhoon Melor a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Something new off USGS, a CAL TECH report on the Earthquake swarm near Kessler, CA
Link
Quoting tropics21:
it's not the NHc it's the disgruntled ones that want storms


Not afraid to say I want storms, just don't want them to hit the US. You'd be lying if you said you don't want a nice, impressive fish storm to track. Like Gordon, Helene, Bill, and Fred.
300. amd
i see nothing wrong with the NHC's philosophy in naming (or not) storms this year, nothing.

Some years, like 2007, had much stronger arguments about whether certain storms should have been named at all (see w456's post with the dr. neil frank quote, which referenced some of the questionable naming of storms by the NHC)
Quoting 1900hurricane:
145 kt 1 minute sustained winds makes Super Typhoon Melor a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.



picture perfect.
hi guys we have two models that are predicting a system near the leewards

Link
Lookin' Juicy.....

Quoting InTheCone:
Lookin' Juicy.....

Quoting InTheCone:
Lookin' Juicy.....



that's what the exmwf wants to develop.
An interesting Utube Video about earthquakes in CA...from someone who appears to know what he's talkin' about.
img src="" alt="" />
308. JLPR
looking good

Not hard to see why Melor is category 5 now with that structure.

Quoting Chicklit:
An interesting Utube Video about earthquakes in CA...from someone who appears to know what he's talkin' about.
img src="" alt="" />


wow.. thats freaky

Wow, that mess in mid-atlantic just fired up.
Loop
flare up looks to start running into some higher shear soon.
Quoting 954FtLCane:


wow.. thats freaky

Does he say a 6.8 on the 6th?
How accurate has this been in the past?
Is it based on specific valid data?

Parma left & Melor center.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Not hard to see why Melor is category 5 now with that structure.

/>


It looks like most of Parma's heavy rains are staying north of the flood-ravaged Manilla area.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Does he say a 6.8 on the 6th?
How accurate has this been in the past?
Is it based on specific valid data?


Here is his website
Quoting AussieStorm:

Does he say a 6.8 on the 6th?
How accurate has this been in the past?
Is it based on specific valid data?

I think earthquake prediction/forecasting is a very in-exact science... so I don't believe much in his actual predictions but I do prefer to live in Hurricane alley than in an earthquake zone.... atleast we know ahead of time and can prepare
So who wants to guess which model is going to be the closest to predicting Parma's future track???

320. amd
Quoting 1900hurricane:
So who wants to guess which model is going to be the closest to predicting Parma's future track???



i say the 18Z EGRI, and based on the newest updated JTWC track, so do they.

Newest best guess track for Parma
I'll guess nogaps. It's had the idea of a wandering Parma for a long time. No reason to doubt it yet.
Quoting Chicklit:
An interesting Utube Video about earthquakes in CA...from someone who appears to know what he's talkin' about.
img src="" alt="" />


On the other hand, just who are these people? On their links page they have links to free career test, free dating site, and The Apocalypse Times. The resources tab has a whole bunch of garbage links. This kind of junk on a web page, even the main home page, makes me wonder about their credibility. And they are direct links, not ads.
323. JLPR


something to watch tonight =P
Quoting PcolaDan:


On the other hand, just who are these people? On their links page they have links to free career test, free dating site, and The Apocalypse Times. The resources tab has a whole bunch of garbage links. This kind of junk on a web page, even the main home page, makes me wonder about their credibility. And they are direct links, not ads.


all very good points.....
325. JLPR
ex-90L

...impressive
ok all I know right now is the Hurricanes need to beat Oklahoma...... 21-20... who wins?
327. xcool


Quoting JLPR:


there is a wave there but if you mean that the ITCZ is enhancing the convection, yep I agree
So that means it just looks good right now,and not a whole lot to it for the time being?
Quoting xcool:



OK I've seen these maps before....exactly what do they mean?
330. 789
Quoting 954FtLCane:


all very good points.....
looks like a chance of 1 /100 of this happening usgs/but there was a 4.3 yesterday
331. xcool
Link


954FtLCane go here
Quoting xcool:
Link


954FtLCane go here

Thanks much appreciated
" alt="" />
Two devastating earthquakes measuring 7.6 and 6.6 on Richter scale respectively hit the Indonesian island on Wednesday and Thursday have left about 4, 000 people buried under the rubbles, said United Nations estimate. The official death toll is 777, with hundreds more injured.

"Most people here are trapped and buried inside buildings. You cannot hope for more survivors. I think most of them have died," Indonesia's vice-president Jusuf Kalla told media persons.

National Disaster Agency says that more than 20, 000 buildings in the coastal town of Padang were tumbled and three surrounding villages completely wiped out. 2,400 people have so far been hospitalized.

One older woman whose eight family members were buried under the buildings said she had to dig herself out of the chest-high rubble.

Relief teams are still hopeful that that some of the victims could be found alive.
Link
335. xcool
954FtLCane any time.
I guess Melor is the most powerful this year ... 165 MPH
Quoting Chicklit:
" alt="" />
Two devastating earthquakes measuring 7.6 and 6.6 on Richter scale respectively hit the Indonesian island on Wednesday and Thursday have left about 4, 000 people buried under the rubbles, said United Nations estimate. The official death toll is 777, with hundreds more injured.

"Most people here are trapped and buried inside buildings. You cannot hope for more survivors. I think most of them have died," Indonesia's vice-president Jusuf Kalla told media persons.

National Disaster Agency says that more than 20, 000 buildings in the coastal town of Padang were tumbled and three surrounding villages completely wiped out. 2,400 people have so far been hospitalized.

One older woman whose eight family members were buried under the buildings said she had to dig herself out of the chest-high rubble.

Relief teams are still hopeful that that some of the victims could be found alive.
Link

Thanks for the video u have a great heart.....
Since you are all chatting about earthquakes tonight, thought you'd be interested in a new theory from a few "radical" glaciologists (geologists that study the ice caps around the planet) that predicts we might be coming into a very active phase of earthquakes and volcanism. Basically, the theory goes like this: as ice continues to keep melting rapidly from Greenland and other land-based glaciers, that is taking stored weight off of the landmasses and redistributing it to the oceans. (Think of someone lifting a weight off of an inflated rubber ball.) That change in weight balance on the planet might be enough of a catalyst for the tectonic plates to "slip" (we are talking about HUGE volumes of ice and water here), thus increasing the likelihood of a more active geological phase. Not something fun to think about, but definitely an interesting theory. We'll have to see if things get pretty wild in the next 10-25 years.
339. JLPR
Quoting stormsurge39:
So that means it just looks good right now,and not a whole lot to it for the time being?


well we don't have a quickscat or ascat to see if we got a LLC yet
but I don't think so
since we would have west winds here
Station 13009
Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Atlantic
Location: 7.95N 38.02W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 03 Oct 2009 22:00:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 8.0 kt
Air Temperature: 81.9 F
Water Temperature: 83.8 F

so right now it is only a interesting looking TW
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "PEPENG" is moving slowly as it interacted with the Typhoon (MELOR) in the Pacific.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #16
=======================
At 11:00 a.m PhST, Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) located at 18.9ºN 120.1ºE or 80 km north northwest of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 km/h (65 kts) with gusts up to 150 km/h (80 kts).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Batanes Group of Islands
2.Northern Cagayan
3.Babuyan
4.Calayan Islands
5.Ilocos Norte
6.Apayao

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Ilocos Sur
2.Abra
3.Kalinga
4.Rest of Cagayan

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.La Union
2.Benguet
3.Mt. Province
4.Northern Isabela

Additional Information
===========================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 P.M. today.
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Thanks for the video u have a great heart.....

Let's hope they find more survivors as time is running out. Heard a heartbreaking story today of someone calling from a cell phone underneath hotel rubble. The dogs went in and no luck...unbelievable tragedy.
We just have to keep on keepin' on.
Quoting Chicklit:

Let's hope they find more survivors as time is running out. Heard a heartbreaking story today of someone calling from a cell phone underneath hotel rubble. The dogs went in and no luck...unbelievable tragedy.
We just have to keep on keepin' on.

I will keep them all in mind tonight and will pray and hope the best for those.... :-(
343. JLPR
how is the MJO with this TW?
this is the strongest and biggest area of convection I have seen with a TW in awhile
By the way, http://www.usgs.gov has some very cool mapping tools on the front page of the site that allow you to see global and North American seismic activity from the last hour, day, and week.
This is a repost of a post off the main Blog October 1 from a member we all know and respect;

________________________

77. AussieStorm 5:22 PM GMT on October 01, 2009

A very late good evening to one and all. I was notified earlier tonight at work that one of my fellow work mates lost a large amount of her family in the Samoan Tsunami. All up it was 25 direct family members and 50 friends. her grandmother wash washed out of her fathers arms. They are still looking for her brother, her father is in hospital with many broken bones and cuts. He was lucky to survive the 8 metre waves and the back-flow. her whole village has been removed from the face of the earth with not even the foundation left. At work we have taken up a collection and have so far raised $2000 which will be given her remaining family so they are able to have funerals. If anyone is able to donate any money or clothing to the charities. please do. I will be taking 2 large suit cases full of unwanted clothes to caritas and many others at my work will be doing the same.

With a lowly heart. I bid you all a good night.
AussieStorm
__________________________

I have checked out the Charity he mentions, they are highly respected and well worth your support :)
346. xcool



Also, the best volcano news site I've found is http://www.volcanolive.com -- gives daily updates on active volcano events from all over the world, and will also cover large seismic events, especially if near an active volcano.
348. JLPR
Quoting xcool:





umm interesting, negative
then this one probably wont be able to maintain its convection
Magnitude 6.1 - TAIWAN

2009 October 03 17:36:05 UTC

the ring of fire is still restless
350. xcool
JLPR .I agree with you !
351. xcool


353. JLPR
umm although Erika developed with a negative pulse


this one could develop but it would pulsate like Erika
AussieStorm - a 5.5 just hit near Indonesia again in the last hour. I feel really sorry for those poor people -- it just keeps shaking over there.
Quoting JLPR:


well we don't have a quickscat or ascat to see if we got a LLC yet
but I don't think so
since we would have west winds here
Station 13009
Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Atlantic
Location: 7.95N 38.02W
Conditions as of:
Sat, 03 Oct 2009 22:00:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 8.0 kt
Air Temperature: 81.9 F
Water Temperature: 83.8 F

so right now it is only a interesting looking TW
thanks
356. xcool




Typhoon Parma:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
lol last vis image looks like a skull ... anyone else see it? =P
This can't be good... a complete track shift on Parma


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Special Notice

360. JLPR
Quoting xcool:






yes that's interesting
we got SW winds from that buoy

Station 13009
Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Atlantic
Location: 7.90N 37.93W
Conditions as of:
Sun, 04 Oct 2009 04:00:00 UTC
Winds: SW (220) at 11.1 kt
Air Temperature: 79.0 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F
361. 789
Quoting JLPR:
umm although Erika developed with a negative pulse


this one could develop but it would pulsate like Erika
olaf is there epac
362. JLPR
Quoting Orcasystems:
This can't be good... a complete track shift on Parma


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Special Notice



that's one heck of a change :|
363. JLPR
Quoting 789:
olaf is there epac


nope that's a Sept 4 map
Quoting JLPR:


that's one heck of a change :|


Basically 180 from the track it was suppose to take.
365. 789
Quoting JLPR:


nope that's a Sept 4 map
thank you i missed that
Quoting Orcasystems:


Basically 180 from the track it was suppose to take.

nogaps has been saying that track all along. Local professors mainly doc blackwell at south alabama were leaning towards the southward loop as of friday afternoon
367. JLPR
Quoting 789:
thank you i missed that


np :0)
it happens
Well this is problematic

369. JLPR
wow Melor looks even better

370. 789
Quoting JLPR:
wow Melor looks even better

do you believe track is accurate for melor?
Me personally, I think melor will track just west of guidance
372. JLPR
Quoting 789:
do you believe track is accurate for melor?


seems persistent, but remember no track is 100% sure
so changes are possible
373. JLPR
our low or Trough is closing in on the islands and it looks like its going to bring some rain



374. JLPR
interesting its looking better

375. mks
Lots of lightning just offshore Antigua.
376. JLPR
Quoting mks:
Lots of lightning just offshore Antigua.


its going to be a stormy day in the islands
377. JLPR
TW is looking nice, lets see if it can maintain itself during the day or if it decays

378. JLPR
before:


after:


well
gonna get some sleep
goodnight :0)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Well this is problematic


Yeah a stall is not a good outlook for northern Luzon.
Magnitude 5.5 - NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

2009 October 04 03:36:00 UTC
381. IKE
15 dead as Typhoon Parma whips Philippines

Link
382. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
423 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...

OCTOBER IS USUALLY CONSIDERED THE DRY MONTH ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. BUT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE EXPERIENCING UN-
OCTOBERLIKE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...EXTENDING A WET TREND
THAT WE EXPERIENCED THE LATTER HALF OF SEPTEMBER.

THE FIRST (OR NEXT?) BATCH OF RAININESS IS ALREADY ON OUR DOOR
STEP. RAIN IS NOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR SCOPES TO OUR WEST...AND IT
IS TRYING TO EXPAND EASTWARD. LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE FRONT LIES
OFFSHORE OF ALABAMA...AND THEN MOVES INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA. THIS
FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO ONLY MOVE AT MOST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF ALABAMA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (USED TO BE CALLED
OVERRUNNING) WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CONTINUED TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT DID NOT QUITE REACH A HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL TO PULL THE TRIGGER. THE DECIDING FACTOR
AGAINST ISSUANCE WAS THAT THE RAIN SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AND MOVE THROUGH IN A SOMEWHAT TIMELY FASHION TONIGHT. ALSO...WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT APPARENTLY GETTING STUCK TO OUR SOUTH...SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION BECOMES LESS LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED ABOVE
THE SURFACE COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS...BUT
THEY WOULD NOT POSE AS MUCH OF A THREAT OF TRAINING AS SURFACE
BASED STORMS WOULD.

IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE PERIOD FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT MONDAY WILL BE
THE IN BETWEEN LULL...BEFORE THE NEXT SWATH OF RAIN COMES IN BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS NEXT PERIOD OF RAIN COULD BE OF LONGER
DURATION...AND COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF HAVING MORE
THUNDERSTORMS INVOLVED. SO...EVEN IF THE FLOOD THREAT DOESN`T
MATERIALIZE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...IT COULD HELP TO PRIME THE
PUMP FOR LATER EVENTS DOWN THE ROAD (LIKE TUESDAY`S).

IT LOOKS LIKE WE FINALLY GET A GOOD HONEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH ULTIMATELY HELPS TO PUSH THE
RAIN OUT (AT LEAST TEMPORARILY). MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING ANOTHER RAIN EVENT TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
OR NEXT WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS QUITE A DYNAMIC
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

AND DON`T LOOK NOW...BUT ARE THOSE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S THE
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING FOR NEXT MONDAY?
...........


Final nail in the coffin along the northern GOM for the tropics...

Over.

383. IKE
From Memphis,TN...

"BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CARVE OUT A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH PROMISES A CONTINUATION OF
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDSOUTH."


New Orleans,LA. long-term...

"LONG TERM...
BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FOR ABOUT
24 HOURS...BEFORE MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
IDEA OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY. AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...PROBABLY SATURDAY MORNING...AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 0.5
INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING. MEX DATA WOULD INDICATE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER NEXT WEEKEND THAN WHAT
IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY."


And Houston,TX. long-term....

"A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. THIS LOOKS LIKE A VIGOROUS SYSTEM. A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOWS BY SUNDAY WILL
PROBABLY FALL INTO THE 50S."

384. IKE
Wave between 35-40 west is huge....

Morning. Bring on the cold front. Please! Our low tonight, last night? is 73. That's 14 degrees above normal. And lows supposed to stay in the mid to upper 70's all week. And rain all week. :(

Lake Charles NWS

SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA WILL REMAIN IN A ZONE OF
UNSTABLE AIR AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT LEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WHICH OF COURSE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE HIGHER
SIDE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM COOL FRONT TO
WARM FRONT. A STRONGER FRONT FINALLY RACES THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WHICH AGAIN TRIGGERS ADDITIONAL RAINS. WE DO SEE THIS
FRONT ACTUALLY DRYING OUT THE AIRMASS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

SO...FOR THE MOST PART...WE ARE LOOKING FOR RAINS TO CONTINUE TODAY
INTO NEXT SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF DRYING IN BETWEEN.

Lol Finally seems to be a popular word this morning among forecasters. :)
386. IKE
You could have fall weather by the first of next week...Link

I think your tropical threat for 2009 is over. A lot of tropical rains this week, but it's over for a hurricane threat.

If I'm wrong, I'll take the crow.
Haven't seen this all summer.



Timing is everything. I'm glad that wasn't negative when Bill or Fred was out there. If I lived in the Caribbean I'd keep an eye on those waves out there. The CMC takes one of em, I think, southerly thru the Caribbean then has a low in Yucatan channel in 8 days can't tell where after that from the model I have.



Quoting IKE:
You could have fall weather by the first of next week...Link

I think your tropical threat for 2009 is over. A lot of tropical rains this week, but it's over for a hurricane threat.

If I'm wrong, I'll take the crow.


I hope you are right about that other season being over. I'm ready for fall. That forecast looked nice I'm going with that one! :) Hubby's vacation starts Saturday. I wanna go fishing. Lol.
389. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I hope you are right about that other season being over. I'm ready for fall. That forecast looked nice I'm going with that one! :) Hubby's vacation starts Saturday. I wanna go fishing. Lol.


Just beyond Saturday will be the cooler/drier weather for you from what I've read.

A 1033 mb high will be over the central plains moving ESE....according to the 6Z GFS...



Oops! Links to those models.

CMC Link

EuroLink

And that CMC model doesn't show much below the GOM. So if that low develops and I can't see it after the Yucatan channel then all I can take from that is either they drop the low or it goes west or south. You may have called it right about the gulf Ike. Don't look like nothing wants in there. :)
392. IKE
Long-range GFS shows another significant cold front in the 12-14 day period for the entire eastern USA, except maybe southern Florida.

Birmingham,AL. office starts talking 30's for lows.... That's probably in the northern Alabama mountains. Probably means upper 40's for inland areas along the northern GOM coast.

Wave between 35-40 needs mentioning by the NHC and maybe an invest number at some point.
Quoting IKE:


Just beyond Saturday will be the cooler/drier weather for you from what I've read.

A 1033 mb high will be over the central plains moving ESE....according to the 6Z GFS...





Ah good. That will keep me in a northerly or easterly flow. Hopefully not too much wind. But my old bones will love some drier air. Not to mention this curly hair. Lol.
394. IKE
00Z NOGAPS...shows the trough diving to the gulf-coast in the same time period as the ECMWF and GFS.

Good news is...I've probably got one more time to mow my yard. Bad news is...all of the leaves and acorns are falling to the ground.

Time to start burning leaves again.
Melor is looking like a beast and it kicked Choi-wain out of the "Worlds Strongest Storm So Far In 2009" throne with 145 kt winds and a pressure of 915 hPa. (you can refer to JMA for pressure information since the JTWC doesn't provide pressure data, except in their ATCRs)
396. IKE
San Juan talking about that huge wave....and a cold front.

"BANDS
OF MOISTURE APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE WEEK...BUT THE BEST
MOISTURE APPEARS TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOLLOWED
BY MUCH DRIER AIR SUNDAY NEXT AND FOLLOWING. THE GFS SHOWS A FRONT MOVING
TO ALMOST 17 NORTH BY THE TUESDAY AFTER NEXT...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO
SOON IN THE SEASON."

Quoting IKE:
00Z NOGAPS...shows the trough diving to the gulf-coast in the same time period as the ECMWF and GFS.

Good news is...I've probably got one more time to mow my yard. Bad news is...all of the leaves and acorns are falling to the ground.

Time to start burning leaves again.


We used to have the acorn problem. I remember telling my kids to be careful, go in the house while someones mowing, don't dent my car, don't break my windows. So naturally I was mowing, my daughter walked out the front door, acorn shot across the yard, strait over her head and shattered the the glass storm door behind her. Little brats wouldn't let me live it down because I broke the window. Lol. We replaced the glass with safety glass and hubby does all the mowing now so its all good. :)
Padang Indonesia Quake amateur footage
Link

New Quake
Magnitude 6.5 - MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
2009 October 04 10:58:01 UTC
399. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


We used to have the acorn problem. I remember telling my kids to be careful, go in the house while someones mowing, don't dent my car, don't break my windows. So naturally I was mowing, my daughter walked out the front door, acorn shot across the yard, strait over her head and shattered the the glass storm door behind her. Little brats wouldn't let me live it down because I broke the window. Lol. We replaced the glass with safety glass and hubby does all the mowing now so its all good. :)


I was weed eating a few years ago and broke a window with a small rock that flew into it.

I can hear the acorns hitting my roof right now.

LOL...burn leaves and you have acorns popping.
400. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:
Padang Indonesia Quake amateur footage
Link

New Quake
Magnitude 6.5 - MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
2009 October 04 10:58:01 UTC


Those people have been through a lot. Scary tape.
Quoting IKE:


Those people have been through a lot. Scary tape.


I could only imagine how they felt during the earthquakes. It's got to be terrifying after the 2004 tsunami. I hope the earth stops shaking and their typhoon season ends as well. I don't know if all these quakes are normal but it seems a lot to me. Poor people. :( I just don't have the words.
I'll be back later. Have a good day everyone. :)
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I could only imagine how they felt during the earthquakes. It's got to be terrifying after the 2004 tsunami. I hope the earth stops shaking and their typhoon season ends as well. I don't know if all these quakes are normal but it seems a lot to me. Poor people. :( I just don't have the words.


Latest Earthquakes Magnitude 5.0 and Greater in the World - Last 7 days


6.6 2009/10/04 10:58:01 6.721 123.480 630.5 MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
5.4 2009/10/04 09:10:30 -16.247 -173.243 10.0 TONGA
5.5 2009/10/04 03:36:00 -0.443 133.023 39.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
6.1 2009/10/03 17:36:05 23.635 121.565 17.5 TAIWAN
5.1 2009/10/03 15:36:29 27.991 127.788 80.4 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.2 2009/10/03 07:16:59 -16.881 -172.986 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 2009/10/03 01:15:59 36.393 -117.877 0.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
5.3 2009/10/02 22:38:45 -17.808 -172.590 44.3 TONGA REGION
5.1 2009/10/02 20:03:03 -17.157 -172.667 10.0 TONGA REGION
5.3 2009/10/02 15:53:57 -0.866 121.727 49.6 SULAWESI, INDONESIA
5.8 2009/10/02 15:47:14 -17.032 174.474 35.8 FIJI REGION
5.1 2009/10/02 13:49:11 39.463 95.584 10.0 GANSU, CHINA
5.4 2009/10/02 12:08:32 -16.419 -172.679 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.4 2009/10/02 12:01:11 -15.363 -173.201 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/10/02 11:09:34 -14.773 -173.438 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 2009/10/02 09:57:19 -6.113 151.415 47.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.1 2009/10/02 02:46:48 -16.732 -172.300 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 2009/10/02 02:23:14 -6.332 130.794 84.7 BANDA SEA
5.1 2009/10/02 01:55:07 -14.490 -173.371 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
6.1 2009/10/02 01:07:40 -16.327 -173.480 10.0 TONGA
5.4 2009/10/01 20:55:44 -12.291 166.430 85.5 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS
5.3 2009/10/01 20:13:52 -15.550 -172.820 33.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 2009/10/01 18:40:17 -14.995 -173.433 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.4 2009/10/01 18:18:53 -15.064 -173.846 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/10/01 13:33:44 -15.446 -173.563 10.0 TONGA
5.4 2009/10/01 10:51:08 -17.200 -172.789 10.0 TONGA REGION
5.0 2009/10/01 10:01:24 36.388 -117.859 5.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
5.0 2009/10/01 09:47:27 -16.270 -173.549 10.0 TONGA
5.1 2009/10/01 07:24:09 -15.373 -173.106 10.0 TONGA
5.7 2009/10/01 06:13:30 -15.229 -172.932 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 2009/10/01 02:20:31 -2.465 101.342 10.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
6.6 2009/10/01 01:52:30 -2.497 101.540 15.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.2 2009/10/01 01:31:05 4.258 127.508 64.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.0 2009/10/01 00:30:23 -16.443 -172.443 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 2009/09/30 21:34:32 55.874 162.001 35.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA
5.0 2009/09/30 21:22:54 -16.667 -173.827 10.0 TONGA
5.2 2009/09/30 19:43:53 -15.354 -173.454 10.0 TONGA
5.8 2009/09/30 19:03:17 -15.535 -69.254 253.9 LA PAZ, BOLIVIA
5.2 2009/09/30 18:04:47 -15.097 -177.276 10.0 FIJI REGION
5.2 2009/09/30 17:47:17 -15.453 -173.384 10.0 TONGA
5.4 2009/09/30 17:20:40 -23.049 169.516 31.2 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS
5.1 2009/09/30 15:20:16 -15.087 -173.427 10.0 TONGA
5.3 2009/09/30 13:57:11 -16.637 -172.519 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 2009/09/30 12:48:01 -6.277 151.402 56.8 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.5 2009/09/30 10:38:54 -0.717 100.070 104.2 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
7.6 2009/09/30 10:16:09 -0.725 99.856 81.0 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
5.0 2009/09/30 09:05:13 -16.132 -172.861 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 2009/09/30 08:24:59 -16.575 -172.685 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.3 2009/09/30 05:24:51 -15.351 -173.380 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/09/30 04:03:12 -15.621 -173.351 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/09/30 02:47:27 -15.723 -173.142 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/09/30 02:29:34 -16.617 -173.038 10.0 TONGA
5.1 2009/09/30 01:39:50 -15.483 -173.383 10.0 TONGA
5.6 2009/09/30 01:39:43 4.914 126.727 72.2 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA
5.1 2009/09/30 01:09:30 -14.972 -173.612 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 2009/09/30 01:05:35 -14.914 -173.245 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.1 2009/09/30 00:40:52 -15.460 -172.931 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 2009/09/30 00:11:38 -15.992 -172.243 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.9 2009/09/29 23:45:03 -15.840 -172.531 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.4 2009/09/29 23:32:57 -15.539 -173.322 10.0 TONGA
5.5 2009/09/29 23:11:52 -15.565 -173.365 10.0 TONGA
5.4 2009/09/29 22:36:18 27.835 127.800 7.7 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.1 2009/09/29 22:08:30 -15.345 -173.387 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/09/29 21:28:57 -17.205 -173.002 10.0 TONGA
5.2 2009/09/29 19:18:53 -16.879 -172.803 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.1 2009/09/29 18:57:59 -16.100 -173.037 10.0 TONGA
5.0 2009/09/29 18:46:02 -14.953 -173.329 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.5 2009/09/29 18:40:13 -15.340 -173.270 20.4 TONGA
5.0 2009/09/29 18:36:30 -15.306 -172.963 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.2 2009/09/29 18:34:30 -14.920 -172.443 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS
5.1 2009/09/29 18:29:26 -15.909 -173.208 10.0 TONGA
5.8 2009/09/29 18:21:42 -16.193 -172.982 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.6 2009/09/29 18:19:36 -15.952 -171.611 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.6 2009/09/29 18:08:22 -15.467 -172.092 10.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
8.0 2009/09/29 17:48:11 -15.509 -172.034 18.0 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION
5.0 2009/09/29 06:01:14 30.939 83.485 10.0 WESTERN XIZANG
5.8 2009/09/28 19:22:56 27.938 127.867 1.7 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN
5.1 2009/09/28 14:38:57 -6.125 152.202 31.9 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.3 2009/09/28 12:13:18 -25.631 -13.823 10.0 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.1 2009/09/27 15:16:53 2.671 125.733 107.1 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA


Talk about a restless earth
404. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

405. IKE
A vigorous upward MJO pulse will propagate across the Atlantic soon. A predominant ridging pattern will remain in the east coast for the majority of next week. The problem is: it seems that the peak of the MJO upward phase will move into the Atlantic when a troughing pattern replaces the ridging pattern.

When a ridging pattern is established across the east coast, the following happen:

1) All tropical waves or showers and thunderstorm activity move west toward central America or the GOM...sometimes.

2) The pressure gradient between the ITCZ also enhanced the perenial low (is that how you call it???) or Columbian low increase wind speeds across the area. As a result, tropical waves have little time to consolidate and move inland rather quickly. This can also cause upwelling.

When a troughing pattern establishes across the east coast, the following happen:

1) Moisture from the SW Caribbean and sometimes even from the bordering east pacific will advect in a more northerly direction. This allow tropical waves to stay over water longer, and gives them more time to complete tropical cyclogenesis.

2) Because of the prolonged surface convergence, upper air conditions will become more favorable as an upper high establishes.

3) Bad news...storms have a higher chance of hitting the SE U.S.


-Keep in mind that all of this is based on an upward MJO. If the phase was downward, it would not really matter which pattern is across the east coast, for conditions will not really be favorable for the most part....especially in an el nino.




407. IKE
Barrier up over the USA. 100 knots of shear racing east.....

407. IKE 7:53 AM AST on October 04, 2009

That wont be there for long

Shear Forecast
Post 403 Aussie - Shake, Rattle and Roll - sure hope Earth settles down - lot of re-arranging of the plates

Futuremet - good read - !! specially cause I "get it"
This is looking very robust this morning...

I guess we will have to see what happens over the next couple of weeks. Maybe the "experts" are correct in that we will see another bonified, real, non-challenged named storm form.

I'd rather take a long series of minor quakes than to let that pressure build up and have one extreme (9.0+) one. However, I am not living through it.
Typhoon Parma STORM TRACK:
Did someone turn on a tropical light switch last night. This looks the most tropical the Atlantic has looked this summer. I see 4 AOI's. One below Jamacia and one next to Leeward islands closest to creating some concern.
have a almost perfect yr going on in the 2009 atlantic tropics dont need some mojo so far it seems most likely that the wave near the northern windwds is most likely right now
Quoting homelesswanderer:


We used to have the acorn problem. I remember telling my kids to be careful, go in the house while someones mowing, don't dent my car, don't break my windows. So naturally I was mowing, my daughter walked out the front door, acorn shot across the yard, strait over her head and shattered the the glass storm door behind her. Little brats wouldn't let me live it down because I broke the window. Lol. We replaced the glass with safety glass and hubby does all the mowing now so its all good. :)


I was weed eating a few years ago and broke a window with a small rock that flew into it.

I can hear the acorns hitting my roof right now.

LOL...burn leaves and you have acorns popping.



My friend cut his A/C condenser core with a weed whacker. 1500 later...........his house was cool and his wife was very HOT.

Last week someone here gave some good advise. I will Preview my post before posting.

My apologies to any I upset last week. I now have a battery powered alarm for my meds.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
TYPHOON MELOR (T0918)
21:00 PM JST October 4 2009
================================

Subject: Category Five Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Melor (910 hPa) located at 17.5N 139.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 13 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T7.0

Storm-Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
300 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 20.2N 133.6E - 110 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
48 HRS: 24.3N 130.8E - 105 kts (CAT 5/Very Intense Typhoon)
72 HRS: 29.0N 133.2E - 100 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
FROM SURFGODFATHER IN THE PHILIPPINES

Hi X--, Another typhoon! Lots of rain and wind here but, we are fine. To windy to surf today. I think tomorrow and for the next week it looks like the waves will be good. It was a bad summer for Florida. No hurricanes. Maybe this will be a good winter with a lot of cold fronts. The only bad thing will be cold water. I do not miss that. Tell 'the Horseman" to keep positive and study hard. I will write again soon. Aloha, H-- xxxx


As you can read -- he's all about the wave.. We're relieved no 'canes, but most hard core Surfers see it w/ another set of eyes.
Been in the water HiExpress --thanks for that note! I missed it on my Redtide Alert -- yup it's a bit stinky.....

and I had to break out the Angostura, as after my last paddle-session, my gut wasn't tooo happy.

Gomex water has been very warm (88 - 84 degrees) and no storms to upwell and cool it down - kinda like bacteria soup.

Although - fish wise - incredible amounts of baitfish - when I'm out paddling I'm surrounded by flocks of feeding pelicans - great having them dive and splash soo close.... also saw that BlackTipReef resident the last time I was out -- yup, I came right in --though he seemed to be occupado w/the bait fish and not me...
421. P451
over here in e cent florida the surf has been good only a couple bigger days but lots of fun small days i would not call it the best ever though if i was young again sure would not live in florida a surfers life in this part of the world is painful
423. P451
I see the Atlantic is a bit interesting and expected to become more so.

Quoting leftovers:
over here in e cent florida the surf has been good only a couple bigger days but lots of fun small days i would not call it the best ever though


Least you have some rollers!!
GULFSTER SURF REPORT
Sunday October 4th A.M.I Just when you thought it couldn't get any flatter... it does. Very calm conditions this morning with no wind and a rising tide. Sunny and bright at the beach today, so if your heading out , pack on the sunscreen.
Gulf Temp 84

AURASURF REPORT

Sunday 7am October 4th Weekly Outlook They keep saying it's going to get as hot as it was a week ago but so far it's a cool 73 here in St Pete this am. Headed for a warm high around 90 today and the humidity is up. It has been cool mornings and evenings with hot afternoons. High pressure will build in this week. The front just N of us will not make it and another front mid-week will wash out also. All our hopes are pegged on a stronger looking front next Sunday 10/11. This time of year the models tend to overhype fronts esp. in the long term so confidence is low on this one right now and our brutal run of no-surf is not looking to end anytime soon.
I stand corrected

Fred-Ex
The remnant low persisted until moving over the southeastern United States. The remnant low was the main cause of the 2009 Georgia floods. The floods left 10 fatalities and $500 million in damage.
426. P451




Quoting P451:
I see the Atlantic is a bit interesting and expected to become more so.

i thinks so too
Weather 456 how is the blob in the Leewards doing.
430. P451
Quoting gordydunnot:
Weather 456 how is the blob in the Leewards doing.


Its activity tied to a surface trough and its brining some showers and thunderstorms to us here but its being sheared so I dont expect anything from it in the near term.

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Special Notice

If you need a morning chuckle, check the comments section :)
Thanks 456
The great outdoors is calling for my attention - over the overflowing laundry basket.

Time to get out, and enjoy these cooler temps. chickens, cats and the dog are loaded with energy and mischief.....
guess a HARVEST MOON plus COOLER TEMPS equals FRISKYWEATHER*

*my amateur weather report and analysis - good day to ALL
Quoting gordydunnot:
Did someone turn on a tropical light switch last night. This looks the most tropical the Atlantic has looked this summer. I see 4 AOI's. One below Jamacia and one next to Leeward islands closest to creating some concern.
I'm in Puerto Rico,that area E of Leewards is usually a "hot pot" for tropical syztem to gain strenght quick. So i'm paying attention to that little 'bug' closely.
Quikscat caught that large juicy blob in the central atlantic.
You could see the apparent circulation approaching the VI and PR from the E.Link Click the long range radar.
I would look for a consolidation of shower activity



No closed circulation just turning. The interaction with dry air is making it look like "an expose LLC"

New Blog Up
440. IKE
new blog