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Typhoon Parma: a new disaster for Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:59 PM GMT on October 02, 2009

Asia's terrible natural disasters of the past week will soon have new company--Typhoon Parma, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds and torrential rains, is poised to strike the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Saturday. Also of concern is Category 4 Typhoon Melor, which may attain super typhoon status (150 mph winds) as it passes though the northern Marianas Islands near Saipan Island on Saturday. Melor is expected to recurve to the north, and may strike Japan late next week.

Typhoon Parma weakened some yesterday as its rain began spreading over the Philippines, thanks to 20 knots of hostile wind shear from strong upper-level winds. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is rating Parma a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds, but satellite intensity estimates from NOAA and the Japan Meteorological Agency put Parma at Category 2 strength. Regardless, Parma will be an extremely dangerous storm for the Philippines due the heavy rain it will bring. Microwave satellite estimates of Parma's rainfall (Figure 1) show that the typhoon is producing up to 1.3 inches per hours of rain. Given the slow movement of the storm, Parma is capable of bringing over twelve inches of rain to coastal Luzon Island over the next 24 hours. The situation worsens Saturday and Sunday, as steering currents are expected to collapse, and Parma may sit just offshore, dumping prodigious amounts of rain on soils already saturated by Typhoon Ketsana a week ago. The potential exists for portions of northern Luzon Island to receive over twenty inches of rain from Parma, which would likely destroy most of the transportation and communications infrastructure and create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Parma has the potential to become one of the ten most damaging typhoons in Philippines history.


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall rate for Typhoon Parma at 11:01 UTC on 10/02/09, as estimated by a microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite. Image credit: Naval Research Lab, Monterey.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for Typhoon Parma for the 24-hour period ending at 12 UTC October 3 (8am EDT Saturday). This forecast is based on satellite measurements of Parma's current rainfall rate, plus a projection of the storm's path. Over twelve inches of rain (red colors) is expected along a portion of the typhoon's path. A few tiny areas of 20+ inches (purple colors) also appear in the forecast. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Mobilizing for Parma and Melor
Philippines President Arroyo has already declared a nationwide "state of calamity" and ordered six provincial governments to evacuate residents from flood- and landslide-prone areas in the path of the Parma. Going against the flow of evacuees will be Typhoon chasers James Reynolds and Geoff Mackley, who plan to travel to northern Luzon today to intercept Typhoon Parma. You can follow their progress at typhoonfury.com and rambocam.com. In addition, storm chaser Jim Edds is on Saipan Island waiting for Typhoon Melor to arrive; you can track his experiences at www.extremestorms.com.

The Atlantic remains quiet
A non-tropical low pressure system gave the Azores Islands some wind gusts over 40 mph yesterday, and NHC labeled this system "Invest 90L". However, this system is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression, as water temperatures are a chilly 23°C in the region. None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for Update
West-Pac is on fire.

Atlantic is quiet. Fifty-nine days left.
Thanks, Dr. M!
Morning again. It looks like a wet, rainy, windy day for much of the Bahamas....

Morning and thank you Dr.
59 days - feels like an eternity--

AuraSurf Report - Saturday waves on the GOMEX canceled
- 66 this morning is St Pete. Great WX, too bad it's not going to last long. Models have totally flip flopped and we are not expecting a frontal passage this weekend just a return to summer weather and flatness, DOH!
Speaking of cylone chasers, it's a good thing our guy (CycloneOz) chased early storms like Bill and didn't wait for the "height" of the ATL season.

LOL

Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

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Special Notice
Good morning to everyone! Thanks for the updates on the situation in the Oceania region, Dr. Masters. Its just depressing to see all the death and destruction occurring all at once in the region, even though I recognize that they reside in an area susceptible to these various natural disasters. Its just amazing the succession of these natural disasters that Mother Nature has created for these people to handle in just the past week and there's more to come.
Quoting StormW:
610. StormW 11:04 AM EDT on October 02, 2009
Quoting TampaSpin:


StormW,
Good morning everyone! BY YOUR definitiion, what is the difference (to help me understand) between a SubTropical system and a XtraTropical.
My understanding is its SubTropical first and tries to become Tropical and ExtraTropical is after its already been Tropical.....i may have it wrong and probably do....LOL


An extratropical low is like what we see when we have lows come across the U.S., with the cold fronts and warm fronts attached, purley baroclinic, meaning it derives its energy from big differences in temperatures over a larger area, and pressure gradients as well. With an extratropical low, the maximum sustained winds are removed from the center, and are away from the center of the system as much as by a few hundred miles. A subtropical system is a combination of both a tropical system (barotropic), and baroclinic processes. The tropical part of the New Jersey beast, is where I just explained (max sustained winds right near the center, pressure bottoming as the center passed overhead, as well as the windspeed dropping to minimum, warming of air temps by 6-7 degrees F, rising dewpoint.

The extratropical part was the cooler surrounding air, the front (which I may add was depicted as stationary). If the front was stationary, how did it move ashore with the system. Don't know if I forgot anything.

Oh...that's not my definition of what subtropical is...that's THE definition.



Thanks StormW. I knew you would clear my head. Now its even more turning..So am i right to say tho that if a front moved into the Atlantic if it just stalled long enough tho that it could be SubTropical if the center was a few degrees warmer than the outer areas and winds are still removed from the center while still having some strong winds near the center as apposed to the XtraTropical that still has some features of a warm center but not as significant and most of the stronger winds are removed from the center.
Edge of front over GoM - some hot water there, ya-think? Somehow I don't imagine it's a good boating day off LA....

Quoting BahaHurican:
Edge of front over GoM - some hot water there, ya-think? Somehow I don't imagine it's a good boating day off LA....



The NEXRAD II has a really good picture of it right now.



Its clipping along pretty good.. its moved a fair amount since this morning at 0600 Pacific
Quoting StormW:


You just lost me.


Thank god, I am not the only one.. I was reading that feeling like an idiot.. I was totally lost.
' However, this system is not a threat to develop into the tropical depression, as water temperatures are a chilly 23C in the region.'

That's chilly? I'll take 23C...

And Chicago/Tokyo gone already for the Olympics. Latin Olympics now.



THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATES THE WEATHER NEWS. THE STATIONARY FRONT
THAT THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING GOES FROM 31N64W TO 28N70W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO ANDROS ISLAND BEYOND 18N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM JAMAICA...ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE BAHAMAS TO
THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W.
If Madrid wins it will be a big Set-Up and I will not watch any of the events period!
Quoting GTcooliebai:
If Madrid wins it will be a big Set-Up and I will not watch any of the events period!
Why would it be a big setup?

And BTW, is the GT for Grand Turks, or something else?
Rio should win I mean Wow they make it a Public Holiday. Wish we had that when major sports teams win championships. sheesh
Thank You for the update Dr. Masters
read what I wrote above and it stands for Georgetown, Guyana.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Why would it be a big setup?

And BTW, is the GT for Grand Turks, or something else?


read what I wrote above and it stands for Georgetown, Guyana.
Quoting StormW:
This should simplify. The bold part is what I have heartburn with...as a frontal attachment is a characteristric of an extratropical cyclone, and the combo of the extratropical and tropical characteristics is what makes it subtropical.

On the 18th, a 500-mb trough swung over a frontal zone and initiated an area of low pressure at the surface. While over relatively warm waters, convection around the low's center started to flare up on the 19th (revisit the infrared satellite loop above). By 06Z the 20th, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center christened the system Subtropical Storm Ana, following through on guidelines that a subtropical storm must have both tropical and subtropical characteristics and meet the minimum requirement for sustained winds (at least 33 knots). For the record, NHC forecasters classify a low as a subtropical depression when its maximum sustained winds are less than 33 knots.

A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical and an extratropical cyclone. As early as the 1950s, meteorologists were unclear whether they should be characterized as tropical or extratropical cyclones. They were officially recognized by the National Hurricane Center in 1972. Subtropical cyclones began to receive names off the official tropical cyclone lists in the Atlantic Basin and the southwest Indian ocean.

There are two definitions currently used for subtropical cyclones. Across the north Atlantic and southwest Indian ocean, they require central convection fairly near the center and a warming core in the mid-levels of the troposphere. Across the eastern half of the northern Pacific, they require a mid-tropospheric cyclone to cut off from the main belt of the westerlies and only a weak surface circulation. Subtropical cyclones have broad wind patterns with maximum sustained winds located farther from the center than typical tropical cyclones, and have no weather fronts linked into their center


Oh that cleared it up... like mud.

Query:

If they are named off the same list.. and have the same basic characteristics. Why have three names?

I understand the difference between Tropical and ExtraTropical... why do they need one in the middle? Especially if there is no clear consensus of the difference.
I need to jump in for a minute on the subtropical discussion. The location of the strom has a lot to do with the classification of that system. If NHC decided to designate it as subtropical, watches and warnings would have needed to be issued for the most densely populated are of the country. For what, some rain and wind, something that the northeast experiences several times each winter. No one around the New York area would have done anything different if there was a tropical storm watch in effect, but at eliminates that sense of false security for when a "real" storm approaches. As much I hate to admit this, even though I am a certified meteorologist, politics are involved sometimes with branches of NOAA. Remember, NOAA is run by the Department of Commerce.
Quoting StormW:


You just lost me.


Sorry i guess i didn't word what i was thinkging well....

An extratropical low is like what we see when we have lows come across the U.S., with the cold fronts and warm fronts attached, purley baroclinic, meaning it derives its energy from big differences in temperatures over a larger area, and pressure gradients as well. With an extratropical low, the maximum sustained winds are removed from the center, and are away from the center of the system as much as by a few hundred miles. A subtropical system is a combination of both a tropical system (barotropic), and baroclinic processes. The tropical part of the New Jersey beast, is where I just explained (max sustained winds right near the center, pressure bottoming as the center passed overhead, as well as the windspeed dropping to minimum, warming of air temps by 6-7 degrees F, rising dewpoint.

The extratropical part was the cooler surrounding air, the front (which I may add was depicted as stationary). If the front was stationary, how did it move ashore with the system. Don't know if I forgot anything.




StormW you said that an Extratropical system derives its energy from the differnce in Temperatures does not a Subtropical due the same! Except the Subtropical is just a little warmer near the center with winds not as removed from the center as opposed to the Extratropical. I guess i'm asking at what point is the center concerned Tropical. I thought it was when the Center was about 8deg warmer than the sourrundings. But, is there a certain temp it must be.
"I understand the difference between Tropical and ExtraTropical... why do they need one in the middle? Especially if there is no clear consensus of the difference."

I would agree there. I'm not sure what the purpose of naming these sub-trop storms is. There's been a lot of debate about naming marginal TS/STS in this blog this summer, mostly due to the slow pace. I just don't know what it gains in terms of public knowledge or preparedness.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thank god, I am not the only one.. I was reading that feeling like an idiot.. I was totally lost.


Good!
Quoting StormW:
This should simplify. The bold part is what I have heartburn with...as a frontal attachment is a characteristric of an extratropical cyclone, and the combo of the extratropical and tropical characteristics is what makes it subtropical.

On the 18th, a 500-mb trough swung over a frontal zone and initiated an area of low pressure at the surface. While over relatively warm waters, convection around the low's center started to flare up on the 19th (revisit the infrared satellite loop above). By 06Z the 20th, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center christened the system Subtropical Storm Ana, following through on guidelines that a subtropical storm must have both tropical and subtropical characteristics and meet the minimum requirement for sustained winds (at least 33 knots). For the record, NHC forecasters classify a low as a subtropical depression when its maximum sustained winds are less than 33 knots.

A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical and an extratropical cyclone. As early as the 1950s, meteorologists were unclear whether they should be characterized as tropical or extratropical cyclones. They were officially recognized by the National Hurricane Center in 1972. Subtropical cyclones began to receive names off the official tropical cyclone lists in the Atlantic Basin and the southwest Indian ocean.

There are two definitions currently used for subtropical cyclones. Across the north Atlantic and southwest Indian ocean, they require central convection fairly near the center and a warming core in the mid-levels of the troposphere. Across the eastern half of the northern Pacific, they require a mid-tropospheric cyclone to cut off from the main belt of the westerlies and only a weak surface circulation. Subtropical cyclones have broad wind patterns with maximum sustained winds located farther from the center than typical tropical cyclones, and have no weather fronts linked into their center


So an Extratropical is linked to a front while a SubTropical is not linked to a front but has stronger winds several miles from the center but, is still with warm core characteristics.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
read what I wrote above and it stands for Georgetown, Guyana.
Kewl. I have some friends from Guyana who are living here in Nassau. Are u actually living in GT right now?

I sometimes forget Guyana is geographically not in the Caribbean... So u guys have very small likelihood of getting an actual hurricane, but regular rainy season is tied to ITCZ, correct?
Wow. Well, we now have clear skies, but our power just went off.

???
34. IKE
Good Afternoon!!!
Ah, sounds like BEC trucks outside...
good morning/afternoon all

olaf seems ragged at this time

rainbow image on both typhoons
#39.

Looks like Parma will hold on long enough to bring some stormy weather to Taiwan and even the mainland...

Power is back here. I never understand this place; we've gone through cat 2 hurricanes when the power stayed on, but a passing thundershower puts the lights out...
90l. some fairly deep convection firing, right over the center. Too weak to be name worthy but I don't think anyone could argue it doesn't have some tropical charictaristics.



even some outflow on the left side. WV loop
this thing is pretty sketchy if you ask me. Detatched from front now, lots of convection, little shear.. although no surface low.

Parma JSL Still Image

Quoting TampaSpin:


So an Extratropical is linked to a front while a SubTropical is not linked to a front but has stronger winds several miles from the center but, is still with warm core characteristics.


It's completely arbitrary, and thats what p***es me, and hopefully a lot of others off. If that azores low looked exactly the same as it does, but was 200 miles east of NYC, it would have been named a STS yesterday when it had that eye like appearance. Even now, the strongest winds with the system are packed in close with a clearly defined LLCC, and deep convection being produced by the center, and is not connected to any front (still). It may be too weak now, however, but it should have been declared yesterday if they truly care about naming Subtropical Systems. They do not. Same deal with 92L in May, and that was significantly stronger and more well defined than this one.
Quoting winter123:
90l. some fairly deep convection firing, right over the center. Too weak to be name worthy but I don't think anyone could argue it doesn't have some tropical charictaristics.



even some outflow on the left side. WV loop
This is the Azores bit, right? I noticed that feature yesterday, but didn't think it would garner enough interest to even get invest status....
90L was deactivated this morning.

10/02/2009 11:50AM 1,089 invest_DEACTIVATE_al902009.ren
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. The Philippines' have had it rough this year.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
90L was deactivated this morning.

10/02/2009 11:50AM 1,089 invest_DEACTIVATE_al902009.ren

good i only expect it to an invest anyway nothing more
Quoting IKE:
Ike or anyone: What is the RMM1 and RMM2 graphic and how is it used? Thanks.
Nobody looking at our little boy in the eastern north atlantic basin? Here it is...

Well, I'm headed out here while the skies are clear. Depending on things at work, I may or may not be on later this afternoon.

I don't think we'll see any tropical development w/ the area over the Bahamas right now - does anyone? - but it does represent a significant increase in moisture in the basin. A sign that MJO is on the upswing in the area?

Later.
Quoting IKE:
West-Pac is on fire.

Atlantic is quiet. Fifty-nine days left.


Today's Understatement Award...
Great stuff Storm,always struggled with how to read those charts.
59. IKE
Quoting Dakster:


Today's Understatement Award...


LOL....yo bud.
Hi everyone, I posted my analysis on typhoon Parma and the rest of the tropics here. Unfortunately, it appears Parma will be hanging around for a while.
Quoting IKE:


LOL....yo bud.


Hey Ike...

Good thing the GOM is under 40kt of shear. Hopefully I am reading StormW's shear map correctly. I don't like those cut-off lows/fronts this time of the year...
Good afternoon guys,

Storm, thanks for explaining the MJO graph, I always got mixed up on it
GFS MOS FORECASTS

KIND GFS MOS GUIDANCE 10/02/2009 1200 UTC
DT /OCT 2/OCT 3 /OCT 4 /OCT 5
HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X 48 62 45 65 47
TMP 61 61 55 52 52 51 50 54 59 59 55 51 49 47 46 55 61 63 58 51 49
DPT 43 42 40 40 41 41 42 44 44 43 42 42 42 42 42 45 44 43 43 44 44
CLD OV BK BK OV OV OV OV BK OV OV OV BK SC FW FW FW BK BK BK CL FW
WDR 24 24 22 20 20 22 23 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 09 06
WSP 19 16 08 08 09 09 10 12 14 13 07 07 07 06 05 06 09 08 05 03 05
P06 3 10 30 12 3 7 6 3 2 2 5
P12 38 12 13 4 5
Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q12 0 0 0 0 0
T06 1/ 0 2/ 8 3/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 0 0/ 8 2/ 0 1/ 1 1/ 2 0/ 0
T12 2/ 8 3/ 2 1/ 8 2/ 1 1/ 9
POZ 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
SNW 0 0 0
CIG 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

Quoting tornadodude:
GFS MOS FORECASTS

KIND GFS MOS GUIDANCE 10/02/2009 1200 UTC
DT /OCT 2/OCT 3 /OCT 4 /OCT 5
HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X 48 62 45 65 47
TMP 61 61 55 52 52 51 50 54 59 59 55 51 49 47 46 55 61 63 58 51 49
DPT 43 42 40 40 41 41 42 44 44 43 42 42 42 42 42 45 44 43 43 44 44
CLD OV BK BK OV OV OV OV BK OV OV OV BK SC FW FW FW BK BK BK CL FW
WDR 24 24 22 20 20 22 23 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 09 06
WSP 19 16 08 08 09 09 10 12 14 13 07 07 07 06 05 06 09 08 05 03 05
P06 3 10 30 12 3 7 6 3 2 2 5
P12 38 12 13 4 5
Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q12 0 0 0 0 0
T06 1/ 0 2/ 8 3/ 0 0/ 0 1/ 0 0/ 8 2/ 0 1/ 1 1/ 2 0/ 0
T12 2/ 8 3/ 2 1/ 8 2/ 1 1/ 9
POZ 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
POS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
TYP R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
SNW 0 0 0
CIG 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N



Lots of pretty numbers and letters there, T-dude.
oohhh, those poor folks in the Philippines! Given their history with our country I fervently hope they are right there at the front of the line for US disaster relief - with American Samoa.
Quoting tornadofan:


Lots of pretty numbers and letters there, T-dude.


haha yeah, it's the GFS MOS for Indianapolis
000
FXUS63 KIND 021730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE SHORT TERM WL BE HOW FAR S THE WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS WL GET TNGT AND TOMORROW AND HOW COOL TEMPS ARE AS A COLD
POOL SETTLES IN ACRS CNTRL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.

CD FNT HAS MOVED WELL E OF THE FA ACRS WCNTRL OH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ATTENDENT SFC AND UPR LOW`S WERE ACRS NERN IA
AND SERN MN. VSBL SATELLITE PICS AND SFC OBS WERE SHOWING SC
WRAPAROUND FIELD SPREADING ACRS ALL BUT THE XTRM SRN FA WITH
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS ACRS IA AND THE DAKOTAS MOVING S
AND E AROUND THE LOWS. THERE WAS ALSO A FEW POP UPS ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF IL.

PREFER THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER S QPF FIELDS OF THE GFS AS OPPOSED TO
THE NAM BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MEANWHILE...GFS MOS WAS BETTER
REGARDING POPS TNGT AND THE NAM BETTER TOMORROW. WITH THAT IN MIND...
WL LOWER POPS TNGT N AND TAKE THEM OUT FAR S WHICH ALSO LINES UP
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THEN...WL KEEP SMALL CHC POPS IN
ALL BUT THE SRN TWO TIERS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...MODEL TIME SECS
SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE FM 850 MB AND BLW THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE CU
DEVELOPMENT PROGS FAVOR SCT DIURNAL CU AND BKN CU N IN ANY HOLES
THAT WOULD DEVELOP. WITH CLOUDS AROUND TNGT FAVOR THE WARMER
MAV...BUT HEAVILY FAVOR THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...NAM IS EVEN TRENDING COOLER...AND IT MAY EVEN
NOT EVEN REACH NAM NUMBERS BASED ON PROJECTED 850 TEMPS ONLY FROM 1
TO 3 DEGREES CELSIUS ON SATURDAY.

UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS WL BEGIN HEADING N TOWARDS HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY. THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE N SATURDAY NGT TO KEEP
IT DRY. SRN PARTS OF THE FA COULD ALSO SEE SOME CLRG...ENOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 DEGREES SATURDAY THERE PER SIMILAR MOS.
TEMPS N WL LIKELY ONLY DROP TO THE MID 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS.

COULD SEE SOME BREAKS ON SUNDAY EVEN IN THE N...ALTHOUGH CU
DEVELOOMENT PROGS FAVOR AT LEAST SCT DIURNAL CU. ALSO...850 TEMPS
WARM A FEW DEGREES TO 3 TO 7 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

NEXT CHC OF RN STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NGT AS AN UPR LOW SETS UP
ACRS SRN CA ALLOWING FAST SW FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE OH VLY AND
TRANSPORT OF MOIST PACIFIC AIRMASS.

&&


Landfall track is slowly moving South ...

Good afternoon

Tropical update
Quoting Weather456:
Good afternoon

Tropical update


Good morning/afternoon right back at you 456.. nice update BTW :)
There has been a lot of flooding in countries along the Mediterranean See during the last two weeks. Now unfortunately 18 people died in Sicily because of mudslides.

Report:
Two buildings have collapsed in a mudslide triggered by torrential rains in Sicily, Italy, leaving at least 17 people killed and 35 others missing.

Up to 250 millimeters (10 inches) of rain fell in the space of a few hours on Thursday, leaving ten people seriously injured and some 415 others homeless, AFP quoted emergency services spokesman Giampiero Gliubizzi as saying.

Gliubizzi confirmed the collapse of the two buildings, adding that sniffer dogs were searching for victims in the rubble.

In Messina city in the northeast of the Italian island, officials were concerned with a heavier death toll in the more inaccessible parts of the southern island.

In a Friday statement, Sicily's regional presidency said the toll was sure to rise and that the damage was 'incalculable', urging authorities in Rome to take "preventive measures so that such disasters do not recur."

Mudslides have disrupted communications, swept away dozens of cars between Messina and several coastal towns south of the city and prompted the government to declare a state of emergency in the region.

Witnesses said in some towns such as Molino, south of Messina, houses were suddenly flooded with mud which rose up to seven meters (23 feet), reducing buildings to rubbles in no time.

Local officials blamed the 'predictable' disaster on inadequate storm drainage systems, criticizing authorities for aggravating hydro-geological imbalance in the region by allowing for illegal constructions.

MRS/MMN
Quoting Orcasystems:
Now this would be a fun place to go :)

Rio de Janeiro has won the race to host the 2016 Olympics, beating Madrid in the final round of voting.


I'm looking at pictures of girls in bikinis on the beach right now


BZ to the Coasties :)
Quoting timtrice:


I'm looking at pictures of girls in bikinis on the beach right now


LOL
Quoting Orcasystems:


BZ to the Coasties :)



impressive!
82. 789
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL
link please rofl
Quoting StormW:


How to read this:
GFS MOS


thanks Storm!
Quoting 789:
link please rofl


link if you squint really hard you might see them
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL


yea but there's something odd about it, though. can't quite place my finger on it...

Link

Now I'll probably get banned but,oh well. i'll be on vacation next two days, anyway
Quoting timtrice:


yea but there's something odd about it, though. can't quite place my finger on it...

Link

Now I'll probably get banned but,oh well. i'll be on vacation next two days, anyway


nice LOL
87. 789
Quoting timtrice:


yea but there's something odd about it, though. can't quite place my finger on it...

Link

Now I'll probably get banned but,oh well. i'll be on vacation next two days, anyway
thanks
alright, I'm going to work on a new blog update, any suggestions for the topic?
89. 789
Quoting tornadodude:
alright, I'm going to work on a new blog update, any suggestions for the topic?
how about olaf bringing rain into conus ?
Quoting 789:
how about olaf bringing rain into conus ?


well, my area forecast discussion mentioned moisture coming from the Pacific and affecting us next week
Millions exposed to worst of super typhoon: UN

Some 1.8 million people could be exposed to the worst winds from a super typhoon currently bearing down on the disaster-struck Philippines, the UN's humanitarian agency said on Friday.

"We are extremely concerned," said Elisabeth Byrs, spokeswoman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

"Eight and a half million people live in the line of the typhoon and 1.8 million people live in areas along the path of the strongest winds." ................
000
FXUS63 KIND 021730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE SHORT TERM WL BE HOW FAR S THE WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS WL GET TNGT AND TOMORROW AND HOW COOL TEMPS ARE AS A COLD
POOL SETTLES IN ACRS CNTRL INDIANA ON SATURDAY.

CD FNT HAS MOVED WELL E OF THE FA ACRS WCNTRL OH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ATTENDENT SFC AND UPR LOW`S WERE ACRS NERN IA
AND SERN MN. VSBL SATELLITE PICS AND SFC OBS WERE SHOWING SC
WRAPAROUND FIELD SPREADING ACRS ALL BUT THE XTRM SRN FA WITH
REGIONAL RADAR INDICATING SHOWERS ACRS IA AND THE DAKOTAS MOVING S
AND E AROUND THE LOWS. THERE WAS ALSO A FEW POP UPS ACRS THE NRN
HALF OF IL.

PREFER THE SLIGHTLY FURTHER S QPF FIELDS OF THE GFS AS OPPOSED TO
THE NAM BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. MEANWHILE...GFS MOS WAS BETTER
REGARDING POPS TNGT AND THE NAM BETTER TOMORROW. WITH THAT IN MIND...
WL LOWER POPS TNGT N AND TAKE THEM OUT FAR S WHICH ALSO LINES UP
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THEN...WL KEEP SMALL CHC POPS IN
ALL BUT THE SRN TWO TIERS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...MODEL TIME SECS
SHOWING LOTS OF MOISTURE FM 850 MB AND BLW THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE CU
DEVELOPMENT PROGS FAVOR SCT DIURNAL CU AND BKN CU N IN ANY HOLES
THAT WOULD DEVELOP. WITH CLOUDS AROUND TNGT FAVOR THE WARMER
MAV...BUT HEAVILY FAVOR THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS ON SATURDAY BASED ON
CLOUD COVER. IN FACT...NAM IS EVEN TRENDING COOLER...AND IT MAY EVEN
NOT EVEN REACH NAM NUMBERS BASED ON PROJECTED 850 TEMPS ONLY FROM 1
TO 3 DEGREES CELSIUS ON SATURDAY.

UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS WL BEGIN HEADING N TOWARDS HUDSON BAY
SATURDAY. THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE N SATURDAY NGT TO KEEP
IT DRY. SRN PARTS OF THE FA COULD ALSO SEE SOME CLRG...ENOUGH FOR
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 40 DEGREES SATURDAY THERE PER SIMILAR MOS.
TEMPS N WL LIKELY ONLY DROP TO THE MID 40S WITH MORE CLOUDS.

COULD SEE SOME BREAKS ON SUNDAY EVEN IN THE N...ALTHOUGH CU
DEVELOOMENT PROGS FAVOR AT LEAST SCT DIURNAL CU. ALSO...850 TEMPS
WARM A FEW DEGREES TO 3 TO 7 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

NEXT CHC OF RN STILL LOOKS LIKE MONDAY NGT AS AN UPR LOW SETS UP
ACRS SRN CA ALLOWING FAST SW FLOW ALOFT ACRS THE OH VLY AND
TRANSPORT OF MOIST PACIFIC AIRMASS.

Stormjunkie will be delivering a 34' truckload of household items, clothing, toys , etc., to the Baxters nin Lithia Springs, GA....compliments of our WU community...and it can all be seen...and commented upon....live @ www.portlight.org tomorrow beginning about 6A EST...
Quoting StormW:
77. Orcasystems 2:34 PM EDT on October 02, 2009


BZ to the Coasties :)


Dat's my boys!


So long since I heard the term "BZ" - brought back some happy memories and a smile to my face - same as weather in the Caribbean at this time!
Quoting presslord:
Stormjunkie will be delivering a 34' truckload of household items, clothing, toys , etc., to the Baxters nin Lithia Springs, GA....compliments of our WU community...and it can all be seen...and commented upon....live @ www.portlight.org tomorrow beginning about 6A EST...


Hey Press,

I'm going to try to raise money here at Purdue for Portlight, do you have any suggestions?

just WU-mail me
Link

ecmwf.
97. 789
Quoting presslord:
Stormjunkie will be delivering a 34' truckload of household items, clothing, toys , etc., to the Baxters nin Lithia Springs, GA....compliments of our WU community...and it can all be seen...and commented upon....live @ www.portlight.org tomorrow beginning about 6A EST...
check post 66


Landfall Track
Quoting SSideBrac:


So long since I heard the term "BZ" - brought back some happy memories and a smile to my face - same as weather in the Caribbean at this time!


Its one of those nice to know ones.. the people who have been there know what it means :)
Quoting 789:
check post 66


Thanks! On it!
yuppers
Quoting StormW:


Aye!
Bravo Zulu!


You see anything in the Blob train coming off of Africa that may cause trouble, Storm?
Quoting StormW:


The graphic, depending on which...let's go with real time, shows where the MJO is prevalent.

The further away from the center of the graph, the stronger the pulse (upward motion).

The octants we are concerned with here in the Atlantic Basin are 8, 1, and 2...generally when the MJO is in octants 1 and 2...is when we usually see development in the Atlantic.

This graphic show the last 90 days. If you look at mid and end Aug, you'll see how it comes out and is in octants 1 and 2...that's when we had our burst of activity

StormW, thanks. Your answer got me on the web for definition of MJO, etc. etc. Thanks, Tom
107. IKE
12Z ECMWF shows quite an expansive high heading into the SE USA on the end of it's 10 day run. If that materializes it may be the final nail in the coffin along the northern gulf coast as far as the tropics.
From the ATCF:

EP, 18, 2009100218, , BEST, 0, 234N, 1173W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 0, 75, 1008, 295, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLAF, M,

Olaf weakened, as forecast. Most likely due to increasing hostile conditions.

Just a comment on Typhoon Ketsana from a friend who has family in Manila. Parents house had 3' of water rush through it, Cousins house had water up to the ceiling of 1st floor, they were trapped on the 2nd floor for over 2 days, and finally, her friends house had water up to the roof, when the waters receded they discovered many bodies that had been caught in the first floor of their home. This is a story from just 1 family. I can't imagine the devastation & loss of life this small country is experiencing. And another one, maybe two, on the way...............
Hmmm...is anyone here?
blog dead
Quoting Floodman:
Hmmm...is anyone here?


Hello, Echo, Echo, Echo
115. IKE
This is how this blog is in the off-season. Dead as a doornail.

The tropical Atlantic is this blogs survival.
Quoting IKE:
This is how this blog is in the off-season. Dead as a doornail.

The tropical Atlantic is this blogs survival.


I hear that...
Helloooooooooooo....Back to lurk mode :)
118. IKE
Quoting Floodman:


I hear that...


LOL...I don't remember you being on here last off-season? I'm not saying I blame you, just don't remember you posting much in the winter.

Don't remember weathermanwannabe posting much either in the off-season.

I'll BS about my local weather, even though no one really cares.
Personally I enjoy the peace..

2010's going to be really bad on here though I can tell you that.
120. xcool
blog doom


Quoting CybrTeddy:
Personally I enjoy the peace..

2010's going to be really bad on here though I can tell you that.


Sure about that?.......What if El Nino continues to amplify as currently predicted into the 2010 season?
Quoting rwdobson:
"I understand the difference between Tropical and ExtraTropical... why do they need one in the middle? Especially if there is no clear consensus of the difference."

I would agree there. I'm not sure what the purpose of naming these sub-trop storms is. There's been a lot of debate about naming marginal TS/STS in this blog this summer, mostly due to the slow pace. I just don't know what it gains in terms of public knowledge or preparedness.


More on this issue...
123. IKE
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Personally I enjoy the peace..

2010's going to be really bad on here though I can tell you that.


It is nice to be able to say what I want to. Being that I can now....I never thought I would see a season like this one in the Atlantic.

Six named systems...all within a 4 week period of time. No hurricane warning for the USA. No hurricane past 70W.


Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sure about that?.......What if El Nino continues to amplify as currently predicted into the 2010 season?


That's a good question.

I'll say this much...IF it does and appears to possible carry through the 2010 season, I'm not following June and July like I did this year.

I'm sorry for anyone on this planet experiencing tropical activity...especially like the west-Pac has, but this season in the Atlantic is a total yawner.

If hindsight was 20/20...it wasn't worth the time.
Quoting IKE:


I'll BS about my local weather, even though no one really cares.

I care a bit - I spent a few years in Tallahassee. Brings back memories.
I don't miss having to scrape frost of my windshield, or turning on the car before breakfast so the engine is warmed up. I'd never make it living any further north than that!

The only thing I liked when it got cold was that I could stop somewhere on the way home from the grocery store and not worry about the milk going bad.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sure about that?.......What if El Nino continues to amplify as currently predicted into the 2010 season?


Way to far away to make any predictions... I think the ocean will dry up next year and we will have dust devils to watch. Now thats a prediction. "no water in ocean nino"
I stick around through the winter and this is what the blog is like,shhhhhh!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sure about that?.......What if El Nino continues to amplify as currently predicted into the 2010 season?


My mistake; not sure what conditions will be in the Summer/Fall of 2010.

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
10 September 2009

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

A majority of the model forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index (Fig. 5) suggest El Niño will reach at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater). Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index in excess of +1.5°C) during the fall and winter, but current observations and trends indicate that El Niño will most likely peak at moderate strength. Therefore, current conditions, trends, and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño during the winter 2009-10.
128. xcool
Southwest U.S. Tropical Cyclones
from Chris Hebert .


2009
As the Atlantic Basin remains very quiet, today’s blog update looks at tropical cyclones which impacted the southwestern U.S. It was prepared by Dante Diaz, a member of my hurricane team.

When it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes, the headlines are often focused on some community between Brownsville, TX and Eastport, ME or a Caribbean vacation destination. You almost never hear about hurricanes and tropical storms impacting California. However, there are a few rare ones that manage to find their way to California and the Southwest, at least at tropical storm strength. There are two good reasons why such systems are so rare.

First, the sea surface temperatures off the coast of California are much too cold to support a tropical cyclone. Second, the vast majority of systems forming in the East Pacific are driven westward by a large area of high pressure to their north. To make it to California or the Southwest as a tropical storm, several factors must come together. There needs to be a break in the ridge of high pressure to the north. In addition, the tropical system needs to have both the speed and strength to overcome the cold waters off California or the high and dry terrain of the Desert Southwest.
The list of those that have made it to the southwestern United States is short to say the least. Four systems are known to have produced sustained winds to tropical storm force winds here (Chenoweth and Landsea 2004). They are a September 1939 tropical storm that hit California, Joanne, 1972 that impacted Arizona, Kathleen that struck California and Arizona in 1976, and Nora that reached Arizona in 1997. In addition, Chenoweth and Landsea (2004) have done a study of a system in 1858. Their findings indicate that this system brought winds to hurricane force over coastal San Diego on October 2, 1858. Although there are a few other systems indicated to be at tropical storm strength over the Southwest in the National Hurricane Center best track database (such as Lester, 1992), only the aforementioned five systems were observed to have produced winds to tropical storm force in the United States. Numerous other systems reached the southwestern United States as weakening tropical depressions. Only the September 1939 tropical storm made landfall. Joanne, Kathleen and Nora made landfall in Mexico before entering the United States. The San Diego Hurricane of 1858 remained just offshore.

The main threat from any tropical cyclone in the Southwest is the potential for destructive flash floods. If the 1939 tropical storm was to strike again today, Chenoweth and Landsea (2004) estimate it would cause as much as $200 million (in 2004 dollars) in damages. Although unique in the historical record, the San Diego Hurricane shows that even California is not immune to the effects of hurricanes. The high tides, heavy rains, and winds to hurricane force would bring even greater damage totals, on the order of several hundred million dollars today in coastal southern California.

Weakening tropical cyclones may bring heavy rain and flash floods to the Southwest, but there is still the potential for a greater hazard on the California coast. Once in a while, the weather patterns manage to bring a hurricane out of the Tropical Pacific to the shores of southern California, inflicting the kind of damage usually seen over the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of the United States.



129. IKE
Quoting BrowardJeff:

I care a bit - I spent a few years in Tallahassee. Brings back memories.
I don't miss having to scrape frost of my windshield, or turning on the car before breakfast so the engine is warmed up. I'd never make it living any further north than that!

The only thing I liked when it got cold was that I could stop somewhere on the way home from the grocery store and not worry about the milk going bad.


LOL. I just get sick of humidity. And then the bugs...spiders...ants...they feed off of humidity and warm weather.

Current Conditions Manila Wu page


Manila, PH (Airport)
Updated: 32 min 53 sec ago
Light Rain
82 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 79 °F
131. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
I stick around through the winter and this is what the blog is like,shhhhhh!


I remember you posting in the winter.
133. IKE
Quoting Patrap:

Current Conditions Manila Wu page


Manila, PH (Airport)
Updated: 32 min 53 sec ago
Light Rain
82 F
Light Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 79 F


Dew point of 79...talk about oppressive. I feel sorry for those people over there. A living hell with these storms.
Quoting IKE:


LOL...I don't remember you being on here last off-season? I'm not saying I blame you, just don't remember you posting much in the winter.

Don't remember weathermanwannabe posting much either in the off-season.

I'll BS about my local weather, even though no one really cares.


Yeah, I was a little busy working Hurricane Ike claim reviews...LOL
135. IKE
Quoting Floodman:


Yeah, I was a little busy working Hurricane Ike claim reviews...LOL


Oops..that explains it. Sorry.

Bet your glad 2009 has been quiet.
Quoting IKE:


I remember you posting in the winter.


Yep,I think we spend alot of the time avoiding the GW fights that always crop up when the blog is quiet.Oops,I said it didn't I.
137. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:


Yep,I think we spend alot of the time avoiding the GW fights that always crop up when the blog is quiet.Oops,I said it didn't I.


I remember...lol.
Good day, Dr. Masters and fellow bloggers! Thanks for the update, hope all is well!

Typhoon Parma and the Philippines have an unfortunate meeting scheduled coming up this weekend. I hope the Philippine people have received adequate warning, that they have heeded the warnings and that people will be safe.

An "idealistic" thought to prevent the floods time after time after time. It would be great if the IMF and World Bank would assist the Philippines and other W Pacific nations to develop "flood control", ie; Dams and dregded , improved river basin controls to catch and re-release the waters out to the Pacific.

Ten of thousands of people would be put to work, untold thousands of lives would be saved, considering the W Pacific is "Typhoon Alley".

And billions of dollars would be saved throughout the years. My $ .02, for all it's worth!
Quoting NEwxguy:


Yep,I think we spend alot of the time avoiding the GW fights that always crop up when the blog is quiet.Oops,I said it didn't I.


bad man say dirty word....
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sure about that?.......What if El Nino continues to amplify as currently predicted into the 2010 season?


Goes both ways, if 2010 is active then its full of wishcasters, if 2010's going to be an El Nino then its going to be full of downcasters. Both really miserable.
Proof of Global Warming!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lz4Rs2F3ZSg
Quoting Orcasystems:


bad man say dirty word....


Just for saying it I'll ban myself
143. IKE
Sunday night weather here...afternoon discussion from Tallahassee,FL...

"SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...IT
APPEARS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS MASS OF MOISTURE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF OLAF
AND THE WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT
MANY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDINESS WILL
KEEP LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S."

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Goes both ways, if 2010 is active then its full of wishcasters, if 2010's going to be an El Nino then its going to be full of downcasters. Both really miserable.


I hear ya; but it is amusing to watch and participate in something that no one can actually predict with any real certainty...Like Dr. M's take yesterday as to 2 more storms including one hurricane in mid-to-late October. I'm having trouble seeing it but looking at all the "blobs" still around the Atlantic right now, all it would take is for sheer to drop somewhere in the right place before everything really starts to die down in November.

Well.....Enjoy the weekend folks....Off to take the little one to an early rehearsal for the Nutcracker......WW
I was wondering if anyone knows of any links I could use for historical tracks for winter snowstorms and what not?
Quoting IKE:


Oops..that explains it. Sorry.

Bet your glad 2009 has been quiet.


Not wishing anyone any ill, but the money is much better when we deal with 20 or 30,000 claims...
Sorry, internet access problems all p.m.....

The blog isn't THAT dead all the time in the off season.... more like having time-related spikes...early morning, late p.m., early evening EDT, anytime there's a major in one of the other basins.....
148. IKE
Quoting Floodman:


Not wishing anyone any ill, but the money is much better when we deal with 20 or 30,000 claims...


I hear ya.

149. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Sorry, internet access problems all p.m.....

The blog isn't THAT dead all the time in the off season.... more like having time-related spikes...early morning, late p.m., early evening EDT, anytime there's a major in one of the other basins.....


I would say it averages 100-200 posts per day. I would agree, it's not dead all of the time. On average it's slow to very slow.
150. xcool


Quoting IKE:


LOL...I don't remember you being on here last off-season? I'm not saying I blame you, just don't remember you posting much in the winter.

Don't remember weathermanwannabe posting much either in the off-season.

I'll BS about my local weather, even though no one really cares.
I care. Its interesting to see what is going on 14 miles eastward of me. lol
Let's see! The Atlantic basin and E Pacific has dying TS Olaf. Kinda boring.

PLAN B. The W PAC has Typhoon Parma & Typhoon Melor. Parma is going to affect the Philippines and God knows where from there. Melor is going to pass by Saipan and is forecast to be a 95KT Typhoon off the Japan coast, within 100 mi of Tokyo.

During the N Hemisphere's winter the S Hemisphere has a "Cyclone" season.

Everyone here MIGHT be bored. I am thoroughly enjoying tracking and watching the W PAC storms and during the winter, I'll enjoy watching activity off of Australia and in the S hemisphere. Plus all the crazy, wild & wacky weather in the US, Canada, Europe, etc. during the winter season.

May I ask, what "whine" would you like with that cheese? LOL.

I thought weather lovers LOVED watching the weather. Does it MATTER where?

Man, so this is what the off season is like...so what, do we sing and dance?
154. JLPR
looking very interesting =P



im finally back after a accounting exam :|
didn't do so well, I think =S
155. IKE
Quoting Floodman:
Man, so this is what the off season is like...so what, do we sing and dance?


Yee HAW!!!!!
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Sure about that?.......What if El Nino continues to amplify as currently predicted into the 2010 season?


Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this chart indicate a forecast waning of the El Nino? Looks to be moving towards neutral in the 1st and 2nd quarters next year...



Quoting IKE:


Yee HAW!!!!!


I was thinking more like tap dancing...you know, the Buck and Wing
Connecting some dots...concerning southeast US drought of 2005 - 2007.

1. U Columbia researchers "defied conventional wisdom about the drought by showing that it was mild compared to many others, and in fact no worse than one just a decade ago."
http://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2541
According to the study, climate change has so far played no detectable role in the frequency or severity of droughts in the region, and its future effects there are uncertain; but droughts there are essentially unpredictable, and could strike again at any time. The study appears in the October edition of the Journal of Climate.

"The drought that caused so much trouble was pathetically normal and short, far less than what the climate system is capable of generating," said lead author Richard Seager, a climate modeler at Lamont. "People were saying that this was a 100-year drought, but it was pretty run-of-the-mill. The problem is, in the last 10 years population has grown phenomenally, and hardly anyone, including the politicians, has been paying any attention."


2. Dr. M, thankfully, suggested that that drought had nothing to do with any climate change (though everyone behind the CNN "science" desk was certain that it did)
Dr M's blog: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=886&tstamp=200801 However, for the U Colombia crew to call it pathetically normal, well, from Dr. M's post: "The year 2007 is in the record books as the driest or second driest year on record for much of the Southeastern U.S. A mere 31.85 inches of rain fell in Atlanta, Georgia, during the year, 62% of the average of 48 inches. This year's rainfall total just missed breaking the record of 31.80 inches set in 1954. Rainfall records in Atlanta go back to 1930. The drought was worse in Alabama, where Birmingham had its driest year on record--just 28.86", a full 25 inches below average, smashing the record low of 36.14" set in 1931. Huntsville was even drier--a mere 28.65"--29 inches below average. Surrounding areas of Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Kentucky and Virginia also experienced extraordinarily dry years".
I suppose it may have been rather normal region-wide...I guess.

3. Hey over there, wake up! You might have a bigger problem someday soon. From the Colombia study: The factor that has changed in the meantime is population. In 1990, Georgia, which uses a quarter of the region's water, had 6.5 million people. By 2007, there were 9.5 million, up almost 50 percent in 17 years. The population is still ascending, driven largely by migration. However, little has been done to increase water storage or reduce consumption. There has been increased sewage discharge near water supplies, and vast tracts of land have been covered with impermeable roofs, roads and parking lots, which drain rainfall away rapidly instead of storing it.

And then, a reconstruction by tree rings. (Wait a minute...how can they tell which tree rings are larger/smaller from tempteratures or rainfall?
Stan: Hey Bob, come see.
Bob: Yes?
Stan: Is that a cold-year small tree ring or a drought year small tree ring?
Bob: Well, it's warm out today, so let's call that one a drought year instead a of a cold year.
Stan: Ummmm, okay.)

Backatit...
So the tree ring construction of rainfall by year in the southeast (brown=less than normal rainfall, green=above normal):

Seager and his coauthors Alexandrina Tzanova and Jennifer Nakamura put the period in context by comparing it with instrumental weather records from the last century and studies of tree-growth rings, which vary according to rainfall, for the last 1,000 years. These records show that far more severe, extended region-wide events came in 1555-1574, 1798-1826 and 1834-1861, with certain areas suffering beyond those times. The 1500s drought, which ran into the 1600s in some areas, has been linked by other studies to the destruction of early Spanish and English New World colonies, including Jamestown, Va., where 80 percent of settlers died in a short time. The 20th century turned out relatively wet, but the study showed that even a 1998-2002 drought was worse than that in 2005-2007.

Caveats aside, (as much as possible, anyway) interesting work.
Love the sound of crickets in the blog...
L8R
Looks like the next significant front won't be until late next week. But before that, some models are hinting at two high pressures stacked on top of each other(after the weak front washes out south of the area). Centered over central Florida. If that verifies, Orlando could see highs in the mid(possibly upper 90's in rural areas). Yet the good news is subsidence will keep the humidity from going up). As a matter of fact, the NWS is getting ready to take our rain chances out until Wednesday(note, these highs have nothing to do with the Bermuda Ridge which remains well south and east of the U.S. and is weak).

If this materializes, the ridge will quickly stall out by mid-week. Giving way to an impressive long-wave trough to settle over the eastern 2/3 of the nation. Bringing a parade of cold fronts well into the following week.
@158

No one takes into account the population growth factor; the additional stresses on a water system that was a bit better than adequate at full capacity with 20% fewer people will certainly show signs of a deeper drought when stressed. The question is, given the higher population density against the same resources, should we consider this a deeper drought? Shoud we adjust the figures based on the increased usage? What is average, drought wise, and how were those numbers attained? Was population and stress on the system figured into the old numbers?

90L -- Looks like the NHC is as bored as we are. You know none of them took vacations this time of year.

Not the case in the Phillipines with a "state of calamity" proclaimed and the hot towers of Parma are estimated at 8.5 miles high.
physorg.com
Quoting Floodman:


Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this chart indicate a forecast waning of the El Nino? Looks to be moving towards neutral in the 1st and 2nd quarters next year...





you are correct Floodman
Hello, chicklit...that's a nasty syotm
Quoting Floodman:


Not wishing anyone any ill, but the money is much better when we deal with 20 or 30,000 claims...
??? are you in the insurance industry???
Quoting eyesontheweather:
??? are you in the insurance industry???


Yes, actually...I run field operations (a fancy way of saying I babysit the field staff), among other things, for a medium sized IA firm. We contract to a number of carriers for all sorts of losses, but by far the majority of our business comes from Hurricanes.

Now you hate me, right?
Quoting Floodman:


Yes, actually...I run field operations (a fancy way of saying I babysit the field staff), among other things, for a medium sized IA firm. We contract to a number of carriers for all sorts of losses, but by far the majority of our business comes from Hurricanes.

Now you hate me, right?
Quoting eyesontheweather:


Only quoting me does not fill me with confidence, eyes
Quoting Floodman:


Yes, actually...I run field operations (a fancy way of saying I babysit the field staff), among other things, for a medium sized IA firm. We contract to a number of carriers for all sorts of losses, but by far the majority of our business comes from Hurricanes.

Now you hate me, right?
Actually quite the opposite
Quoting Floodman:


Only quoting me does not fill me with confidence, eyes
Sorry, that was an accident
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Actually quite the opposite


Well, I'm glad to hear that...we in this industry get a fair anmount of hate mail...LOL
Parma's going to hit Luzon tomorrow.
Quoting Chicklit:
Melor
phys.org

CWB Taipei


Does anyone have any links for data in the Pacific? I'm ashamed ot say I donlt have much...I'd like to look at steering, shear and SSTs in front of these two monsters
Quoting Floodman:


Well, I'm glad to hear that...we in this industry get a fair anmount of hate mail...LOL
Don't I know....I have an NFIP # amongst many other Lic.
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Sorry, that was an accident


Watch it.. he does accidents also :)

lol Floodman :)
anyway, out for a while.
have a nice evening, folks.

US Navy Track
Quoting Orcasystems:


Watch it.. he does accidents also :)

lol Floodman :)
Well, it is not like I had to clean the seat of my chair or anything
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Don't I know....I have an NFIP # amongst many other Lic.


Wow, you too? Let's go to WU Mail and trade certs...LOL

No really, give it a minute or two and check your mail...
I think Chicklit has me on ignore...LOL

Hey, eyes, I'm glad to hear that too
Floodman, I would like to get some info to you outside of this blog and I do not know how to use the e-mail system on here.
Good evening all
Look at the top of the screen; there should be an icon, the word "Mail". I'd imagine the one on your screen is red about now (I emailed you a few minutes ago). Click on it and it will take you to the mail page and I should be the one on top
Quoting Orcasystems:


Watch it.. he does accidents also :)

lol Floodman :)


Ask my wife, Orca: I'm an accident looking ofr a place to occur...LOL
The outerbands of Melor

Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all


Howdy, 456
Quoting Floodman:
Look at the top of the screen; there should be an icon, the word "Mail". I'd imagine the one on your screen is red about now (I emailed you a few minutes ago). Click on it and it will take you to the mail page and I should be the one on top
Cool, Got it and replied
Quoting Floodman:


Howdy, 456


Hey I saw you NINO graphic for 2010 and if forecasts verify through next spring, the hurricane season of 2010 might be as active as 1998, one of the analog years you might here about come next year.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Good day, Dr. Masters and fellow bloggers! Thanks for the update, hope all is well!

Typhoon Parma and the Philippines have an unfortunate meeting scheduled coming up this weekend. I hope the Philippine people have received adequate warning, that they have heeded the warnings and that people will be safe.

An "idealistic" thought to prevent the floods time after time after time. It would be great if the IMF and World Bank would assist the Philippines and other W Pacific nations to develop "flood control", ie; Dams and dregded , improved river basin controls to catch and re-release the waters out to the Pacific.

Ten of thousands of people would be put to work, untold thousands of lives would be saved, considering the W Pacific is "Typhoon Alley".

And billions of dollars would be saved throughout the years. My $ .02, for all it's worth!


Certainly worth 2 cents! An ounce of prevention......
Quoting Weather456:


Hey I saw you NINO graphic for 2010 and if forecasts verify through next spring, the hurricane season of 2010 might be as active as 1998, one of the analog years you might here about come next year.


I never really subscribed to the idea that seems rampant around here that if storm B follows the a similar path to storm A 2 years before then it will landfall in the same area as storm A; too many too many variables to deal with. Analog in appearance only; no two sdeaspons are ever exactly the same...

I will say this, with the heat potential out there with no release this season and a neutral ENSO for next year it could turn out to be a bad thing
Quoting Weather456:


Hey I saw you NINO graphic for 2010 and if forecasts verify through next spring, the hurricane season of 2010 might be as active as 1998, one of the analog years you might here about come next year.


Ewwwwwwww! 1998 was not a pretty year!

Good evening all, like many, I have a high school football game to go to tonight. I know someone will catch all of us up when we start filtering back in once the games are over.
OK Flood, I gotta know. Have you been taking the WS/JFV spelling course?
193. Relix
Quoting JLPR:
looking very interesting =P



im finally back after a accounting exam :|
didn't do so well, I think =S


I am going to take a wiiiild guess..

UPR. AMO. First part of Accounting or the second one? =P. I am done with those classes. First test is hard, second is a joke, third is midway. =)
Floodman, More mail
Quoting TexNowNM:


Ewwwwwwww! 1998 was not a pretty year!

Good evening all, like many, I have a high school football game to go to tonight. I know someone will catch all of us up when we start filtering back in once the games are over.


At the speed of the blog today.. you might have to read back a page..at the most two :)
As far as Bordonaro's post goes, I can't really say. I can say what kind of mess the ACOE has made of the rivers here in the states; the floods here are worse than if the rivers had been left alone and the wetlands left in their original state to provide a buffer zone. I'm afraid if what sort of engineering it would take to harness the rainfall of say a Parma...
That blob over PR has a small swirl embedded in it. It was more apparent around noon today when it actually had a band with it.
198. JLPR
Quoting Relix:


I am going to take a wiiiild guess..

UPR. AMO. First part of Accounting or the second one? =P. I am done with those classes. First test is hard, second is a joke, third is midway. =)


first =P
good to know the second one is a joke XD
199. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:


Hey I saw you NINO graphic for 2010 and if forecasts verify through next spring, the hurricane season of 2010 might be as active as 1998, one of the analog years you might here about come next year.


well that's not a very good outcome
XD
200. JLPR
Quoting CrazyDuke:
That blob over PR has a small swirl embedded in it. It was more apparent around noon today when it actually had a band with it.


that swirl is the remnants of TD8, it kept moving west all the way from the Eastern Atl
Quoting JLPR:


first =P
good to know the second one is a joke XD


I would be worried about the wording of the third... "Midway" is that between the first and second test for hardness... or the Naval Battle?
Quoting SQUAWK:
OK Flood, I gotta know. Have you been taking the WS/JFV spelling course?


Very funny, Squawk...I'm proctoring a test and every time I get started doing something in here I have to get up and check on something else...

By the way, if I was a graduate of of the WSJFV school of spelling I would have to intersperse some crap spanish in here too
My next creative idea is called the:

Northeast Coast Oscillation Storm Index

It will combine the NAO index, PNA index and the Gulf stream region of 60-80W longitude and 35-40N latitude region of the Atlantic Ocean and see if there is any correlation with the three in storm intensity during the winter season. I have had some feedback already and was wondering if anyone knows of any links for historical storm tracks for winter storms. This intensity scale is to measure the direct correlation between the Gulf Stream anomalies in this region mentioned above and winter snowfall for the Northeast Urban Corridor/coastline.
204. JLPR

Quoting Orcasystems:


I would be worried about the wording of the third... "Midway" is that between the first and second test for hardness... or the Naval Battle?


yeah but I guess that the third one after a semester taking the class shouldn't be as bad as the first one :)
but I guess its gonna be a little difficult considering that one has little something from all the past exams
205. JLPR
not much in the Atl


206. P451
Good Evening.

2 AOIs.

12 Hr IR



207. viman
Quoting CrazyDuke:
That blob over PR has a small swirl embedded in it. It was more apparent around noon today when it actually had a band with it.


That's the remnants of TD08, came through the VI today, right over ST. Croix...if I'm not mistaken...
Quoting Orcasystems:


I would be worried about the wording of the third... "Midway" is that between the first and second test for hardness... or the Naval Battle?


Man...a test that simulates the battle of Midway? Sounds like the Texas All Lines
Good Evening!???
Howdy, 009. I've been meaning to ask you, 009...2 better than 007? Just asking, you know?
211. JLPR
90L looks subtropical



Quoting Floodman:


Man...a test that simulates the battle of Midway? Sounds like the Texas All Lines
Help... I fell of this chair laughing and can't get up.....
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Help... I fell of this chair laughing and can't get up.....


That's the test I'm proctoring; why, in the name of all that's holy, would a field adjuster need to know about stock dividends for an insurance company? That's why it's all lines though...they don't let you drop down to P&C only anymore
Quoting Floodman:


That's the test I'm proctoring; why, in the name of all that's holy, would a field adjuster need to know about stock dividends for an insurance company? That's why it's all lines though...they don't let you drop down to P&C only anymore
And on top of it every 2 years all that usefull info has to be studied again, sort of...
Quoting Floodman:
@158

No one takes into account the population growth factor; the additional stresses on a water system that was a bit better than adequate at full capacity with 20% fewer people will certainly show signs of a deeper drought when stressed. The question is, given the higher population density against the same resources, should we consider this a deeper drought? Shoud we adjust the figures based on the increased usage? What is average, drought wise, and how were those numbers attained? Was population and stress on the system figured into the old numbers?

I think that is the point of that U Colombia study. According to the tree rings (slurp, gain of salt taken) there have been longer periods of less rainfall in the past than 2005 - 2007, so much so that the most recent drought period falls into the unremarkable category. But in those historical times of lacking rainfall there was not the present day demands on available water.

(I know you lean a different way, but I am not one to hold back my true opinions, so...)
There is so much we could work on if we applied the fervor of AGW to more obvious, proven, with a clear cause-effect relationship environmental issues that we could actually make amends for and have an effect. Alas, the environmental political capital is used up and the EPA is busy.
216. 789
Quoting Floodman:
Howdy, 009. I've been meaning to ask you, 009...2 better than 007? Just asking, you know?
oo9 is what license ?
Quoting Floodman:


That's the test I'm proctoring; why, in the name of all that's holy, would a field adjuster need to know about stock dividends for an insurance company? That's why it's all lines though...they don't let you drop down to P&C only anymore
Probably because it helps him adjust the field when he is stocking dividends...J/K..Hello Floodman, thank you for your response to the E-Mail I sent. I am glad that somebody understood what I meant.
Quoting viman:


That's the remnants of TD08, came through the VI today, right over ST. Croix...if I'm not mistaken...
im pretty sure you are right , notice the swirl east of Guadalupe 53W, 15N, is under 10nuts of shear the lowest in the atl.Link<>a href="http://cunss,ssec,wusc,edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg&shr.html" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" Link
219. P451
Quoting JLPR:
90L looks subtropical





This was yesterday: 90L

220. 789
FEMA and its federal partners are working closely with the CNMI Governor Benigno Fitial and Guam Governor Felix Perez Camacho as they make decisions for their potential response activities. Both FEMA's National Response Coordination Center (NRCC) in Washington, D.C. and the Region IX Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) in Oakland, California are fully activated, and are supporting deployed federal teams in American Samoa, Guam, and CNMI.

FEMA has pre-positioned equipment and critical supplies in CNMI and Guam to respond immediately to any needs, including:

More than 90,000 meals
90,000 liters of water
More than 2,500 cots
More than 3,800 blankets
85 generators
These resources are supplemented by more than 110,000 meals, more than 190,000 liters of water, and additional supplies already in Hawaii, which are also available to support the response in American Samoa.

Key federal personnel and other key federal responders have been deployed for rapid transport to Guam and CNMI. Two Incident Management Assistance Teams (IMAT) and a Mobile Emergency Response Support (MERS) specialist are staged in Guam. Disaster Medical Assistance Teams (DMAT) and teams from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are prepared for deployment to assist with response efforts. Federal responders are also on the ground in Saipan, the capital of CNMI.

I'm starting to wonder about the accuracy of the models...This front is not losing any steam and looks poised to come-through C. Florida.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I think that is the point of that U Colombia study. According to the tree rings (slurp, gain of salt taken) there have been longer periods of less rainfall in the past than 2005 - 2007, so much so that the most recent drought period falls into the unremarkable category. But in those historical times of lacking rainfall there was not the present day demands on available water.

(I know you lean a different way, but I am not one to hold back my true opinions, so...)
There is so much we could work on if we applied the fervor of AGW to more obvious, proven, with a clear cause-effect relationship environmental issues that we could actually make amends for and have an effect. Alas, the environmental political capital is used up and the EPA is busy.


I'm not all the way either way; I lean towards the CC end of things based on the idea that you can only dump so much into a closed system before you effect that system. 6 billion of us, all dumping into the environment at once (with us and China making up for the CO2 that the third world isn't dumping) has to have a detrimental effect on the environment. Add to that my extreme mistrust of the corporate world (does anyone remember the congressional hearings where the tobacco industry trotted out experts that said that nicotine isn't addictive? That cigarette smoke was no more dangerous than breathing city air?)...no, I can fudge the data enough myself to come up with any outcome I choose. The problem here is that if the "sky is falling" crowd is right, what do we do when there is no more run off to water the western United States, or water western Europe? We die...if the other side is right (and to be honest, the real answer is between the two) then we end up with a cleaner safer planet...I can do without a new SUV, can't you?
You have to watch those fronts that trail down in GOM or NW Caribbean this time of year, sometimes they take quite a few days to spawn anything.
Quoting hydrus:
Probably because it helps him adjust the field when he is stocking dividends...J/K..Hello Floodman, thank you for your response to the E-Mail I sent. I am glad that somebody understood what I meant.


No worries...I respond to every and all emails and especially for folks I like
225. JLPR
Quoting P451:


This was yesterday: 90L



impressive
Quoting weatherbro:
I'm starting to wonder about the accuracy of the models...This front is not lossing any steam and looks poised to come-through C. Florida.
Quoting 789:
oo9 is what license ?


You know, 007, James Bond?
Perma has weakened more.. MIMIC as it's coming in for a landfall. This really shows how a band repels a storm from land somewhat & a dry slot won't stop it a bit. It's built up it's core on the NW side a little now & what's behind looks like it could maintain that. Should roll NW contouring the land, just off shore. May see Parma run over the little bit of land that sticks out on the NE side.
Hurrah.. the work day is almost over.....
Mind you. still have to work Saturday :(


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Special Notice
Okay folks, my testers have completed their tasks and Floodman is going home...tomorrow is College ball and Sunday the pros...I love the fall!
Quoting stormpetrol:
You have to watch those fronts that trail down in GOM or NW Caribbean this time of year, sometimes they take quite a few days to spawn anything.
Like Paloma.
232. 789
Quoting Floodman:


You know, 007, James Bond?
license to kill 009 license to stop hurricanes
Quoting Floodman:


You know, 007, James Bond?


Rough crowd tonight Floodman...
I just want to encourage everybody to consider donating something to the International Red Cross for Philippines relief. If you haven't been through something like that, you can't imagine how bad it is, and how greatly needed and appreciated those supplies are.
The live video stream from the Baxters' tomorrow be viewed at the Portlight WU blog...
beginning about 6 A est
Link
EP, 18, 2009100300, , BEST, 0, 242N, 1168W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 0, 75, 1008, 295, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLAF, M,

Olaf maintains its intensity
Quoting Portlight:
The live video stream from the Baxters' tomorrow be viewed at the Portlight WU blog...
beginning about 6 A est
Link


Cool. I hope I can wake up in time to watch it live!
Quoting Floodman:


You know, 007, James Bond?

Hi guys what up you know that is my nickname
Here is a picture I just took of TS Olaf generating some clouds over my house in southern California. It's a rare occurrence for a TS to have any impact here. Not that clouds are much of an impact. I just thought it was cool and thought I would share. I also added a visible satellite shot showing the clouds streaming over SoCal.





So is Cape Verde season over?

Interesting 3 EARTHQUAKES, all reviewed by a seismologist in C CALIFORNIA


MAP 5.2 2009/10/03 01:15:59 36.393 -117.877 0.0 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.9 2009/10/03 01:10:25 36.386 -117.867 3.6 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.7 2009/10/03 01:09:18 36.385 -117.864 0.1 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA


3 seperate quakes in less than 7 minutes
I hope this is another cold front.


Loop
Quoting Floodman:


I'm not all the way either way; I lean towards the CC end of things based on the idea that you can only dump so much into a closed system before you effect that system. 6 billion of us, all dumping into the environment at once (with us and China making up for the CO2 that the third world isn't dumping) has to have a detrimental effect on the environment. Add to that my extreme mistrust of the corporate world (does anyone remember the congressional hearings where the tobacco industry trotted out experts that said that nicotine isn't addictive? That cigarette smoke was no more dangerous than breathing city air?)...no, I can fudge the data enough myself to come up with any outcome I choose. The problem here is that if the "sky is falling" crowd is right, what do we do when there is no more run off to water the western United States, or water western Europe? We die...if the other side is right (and to be honest, the real answer is between the two) then we end up with a cleaner safer planet...I can do without a new SUV, can't you?

Yeah, but my point there is that there is so much more we could do besides legislate CO2 emissions to those that can afford the extra cost. Really, I see no effect in the CO2 boondoggle in the way of actual environmental improvements. Other things we could be doing right now would directly affect us now and in the future.

"has to have a detrimental effect on the environment"
While there have been a lot of guesses, no one actually knows that.

I too have that extreme mistrust of the corporate world, and politicians, and those that decide public funding of science (read:politicians), and those that stand to gain, and whomever is motivated to learn or teach anything at all in the fear factory media "specials". But there is no denying that if you want something done or created efficiently, the motivation of lost profits or business to a competitor creates a drive like none other.

(BTW, I cannot stand SUVs. If you actually need a Ford Inexcusable or Slurpurban, maybe you should consider a small bus instead...that or as little travel with your whole brood as possible. And if you don't actually need one of those, then WTH are you thinking?)



Link
look at the shear if that low or any tropical entity in to low shear in the carib. we could see the blog come alive
245. xcool



AMEN!!!APOCALYPTIC-induced misanthropic environmental nervousness.
Looks like Parma has gone down to 114 mph winds but Phillipines still in for a rough ride.


Link
hey big fish thanks for the laugh

myself i would'nt open my eyes

maybe 3 parts in the bag might be good as well

lol
what it doo??????
Evening all,

This is my second time posting on this blog (first time was on Sept. 15). Guess nothing's changed in the Atlantic (still nothing named after Fred). On my blog, I noted some interesting comparisons of this year to other El Nino years (this Atlantic season could be over already).

Another thing: The west-pac has been insane! (intense typhoons Ketsana, Melor, and Parma back-to-back). My thoughts are to those in SE Asia.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Interesting 3 EARTHQUAKES, all reviewed by a seismologist in C CALIFORNIA


MAP 5.2 2009/10/03 01:15:59 36.393 -117.877 0.0 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.9 2009/10/03 01:10:25 36.386 -117.867 3.6 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.7 2009/10/03 01:09:18 36.385 -117.864 0.1 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA


3 seperate quakes in less than 7 minutes


Many more than that in the last hour or so.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
Let's hope it goes as far east as possible.
255. xcool


Quoting Ossqss:


Many more than that in the last hour or so.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php


I am really beginning to wonder if these swarms or quakes near Kessler, CA are number one, foreshocks of a major quake to come or number two, that alot of fault movement is gradually relieving the stress. I hope its the second scenario!
Quoting Chicklit:


So is Cape Verde season over?

pretty much mostly ITCZ enhancement that slowly tracks further south from here on out window is closing wasn't much of a open window to begin with
wundermap parma
At least it's mainly on the north part of the island.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Evening all,

This is my second time posting on this blog (first time was on Sept. 15). Guess nothing's changed in the Atlantic (still nothing named after Fred). On my blog, I noted some interesting comparisons of this year to other El Nino years (this Atlantic season could be over already).

Another thing: The west-pac has been insane! (intense typhoons Ketsana, Melor, and Parma back-to-back). My thoughts are to those in SE Asia.

Ketsana wasn't an intense Typhoon. It was barely a cat 1. Choi-wan Was a Cat 5 Super-Typhoon. Parma Max was Cat 4 and Typhoon Melor is not expected to reach Super Typhoon status. 150mph+ is Super Typhoon.
260. xcool



To AussieStorm:

Thanks for the clarification.
Quoting Chicklit:
thanks aussie storm. i'm very worried.

I am extremely worried. I have family very close to where Parma is expected to make land fall. They have evacuated to my sister in-law's place in Central Luzon yet its been hard for them to travel due to the flooding from Ketsana last Saturday.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
To AussieStorm:

Thanks for the clarification.

I have massive interest in the WPAC/ Philippines due to having family there , and I do agree with you that its been an insane ending to the WPAC season. I just hope all that energy doesn't move south of the EQ
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am extremely worried. I have family very close to where Parma is expected to make land fall. They have evacuated to my sister in-law's place in Central Luzon yet its been hard for them to travel due to the flooding from Ketsana last Saturday.


I really do hope everything turns out good for them.
2-6 EQ in Northern California 2 mins ago...
Quoting Bordonaro:


I am really beginning to wonder if these swarms or quakes near Kessler, CA are number one, foreshocks of a major quake to come or number two, that alot of fault movement is gradually relieving the stress. I hope its the second scenario!
someem coming

MAP 2.6 2009/10/03 02:19:56 36.656 -121.270 11.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.9 2009/10/03 02:01:07 38.325 -122.582 5.2 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.5 2009/10/03 01:59:35 36.400 -117.874 6.4 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 3.0 2009/10/03 01:56:00 36.387 -117.847 4.1 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Quoting Bordonaro:


I am really beginning to wonder if these swarms or quakes near Kessler, CA are number one, foreshocks of a major quake to come or number two, that alot of fault movement is gradually relieving the stress. I hope its the second scenario!
I hope is 2 also. As we have seen around the SPAC there have been quakes in Samoa, Tonga and last night Fiji. when a plate lets go in 1 are we tend to see more quakes further along the plate boundaries.
Yeah, not only has been crazy in the Pacific with the recent west-pac tropical cyclones, we are also had that earthquake and tsunami thing.

Do you think these earthquake readings you guys are reporting from southern-cal are related to that earthquake that happened in the heart of the pacific earlier this week (is the "ring of fire" going through soem active burst)?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
someem coming



KoG, the last 20 or so are not shown on that. They happened after 9pm pacific time. Lets hope it is just reaction and not an indication of something else.

Edit. Correction on time. 9 our time on the east coast. LoL Duh

3.3 30sec. ago in CEntral Cal.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I hope is 2 also. As we have seen around the SPAC there have been quakes in Samoa, Tonga and last night Fiji. when a plate lets go in 1 are we tend to see more quakes further along the plate boundaries.


We are watching very closely here also... being on the opposite side of the plate, it has a tendency of acting like a spring.

BTW, our news reported that we had a (corrected)10cm rise due to the Tidal wave hitting this side.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I hope is 2 also. As we have seen around the SPAC there have been quakes in Samoa, Tonga and last night Fiji. when a plate lets go in 1 are we tend to see more quakes further along the plate boundaries.


That's the last thing we need in California. It took them several months to balance their State budget. They have a 13% unemployment rate, dry weather has caused several large fires, plus a severe drought.

The plate stresses are very high in S California, near Los Angeles and near San Francisco. Seismologists expect a high likelyhood of a 7.5Mw or greater in both areas within 30 yrs. The percent is close to 75%+.
MAP 3.3 2009/10/03 02:27:06 36.383 -117.853 3.8 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.6 2009/10/03 02:19:56 36.656 -121.270 11.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.9 2009/10/03 02:01:07 38.325 -122.582 5.2 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.5 2009/10/03 01:59:35 36.400 -117.874 6.4 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 3.0 2009/10/03 01:56:00 36.387 -117.847 4.1 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA



all these happened at least 25min ago in CAL.
MAP 4.9 2009/10/03 01:10:25 36.386 -117.867 3.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 4.7 2009/10/03 01:09:18 36.385 -117.864 0.1 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 5.2 2009/10/03 01:15:59 36.393 -117.877 0.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

a few moments ago.. well like a hr. or 2
At least they're making preparations Aussie.
I think they'll be okay since Parma is going to be down to a CAT 1 at landfall in the north.
The rain is one thing; the wind is something else. I'm glad it's not making landfall further south. The mountains should help to weaken it although the landslides are going to be wicked. They should know the lay of the land and where best to go, right?
wow... what if the TEC.plates are going under and over each other forming vast volcanoes mountains in the ocen, and California are They should name it the eathquake range...

It could be happening folks... or the possibility the earth is cracking up due to an upcoming global disaster, with hypercanes and such...
Here Cane Kid:
Read this, Earthquakes last 7 days
Compliments of USGS, notice all the CAL quakes over 3.0 Mw:

Update time = Sat Oct 3 2:35:00 UTC 2009


MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s LAT
deg LON
deg DEPTH
km LOCATION
MAP 3.3 2009/10/03 02:27:06 36.383 -117.853 3.8 12 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 3.0 2009/10/03 01:56:00 36.387 -117.847 4.1 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.2 2009/10/03 01:47:54 36.395 -117.855 0.2 10 km ( 6 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 3.4 2009/10/03 01:39:15 18.209 -68.462 110.4 53 km ( 33 mi) SSE of Higüey, Dominican Republic
MAP 3.3 2009/10/03 01:38:08 36.409 -117.862 5.7 9 km ( 5 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 3.4 2009/10/03 01:33:35 36.404 -117.849 2.3 10 km ( 6 mi) SSE of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.0 2009/10/03 01:31:43 36.397 -117.858 0.0 10 km ( 6 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.1 2009/10/03 01:30:31 36.405 -117.863 3.5 9 km ( 6 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 5.2 2009/10/03 01:15:59 36.393 -117.877 0.0 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.9 2009/10/03 01:10:25 36.386 -117.867 3.6 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 4.7 2009/10/03 01:09:18 36.385 -117.864 0.1 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
MAP 3.1 2009/10/03 00:32:04 36.386 -117.868 0.9 11 km ( 7 mi) S of Keeler, CA
that is where i get my sources from "chicklet"
Quoting Canekid98:
that is where i get my sources from "chicklet"

good boy.

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 01:15:59 UTC
Friday, October 02, 2009 at 06:15:59 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 36.393%uFFFDN, 117.877%uFFFDW
Depth 0 km (~0 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
Distances 11 km (7 miles) S (182%uFFFD) from Keeler, CA
16 km (10 miles) ENE (59%uFFFD) from Cartago, CA
18 km (11 miles) NE (37%uFFFD) from Olancha, CA
28 km (17 miles) SE (141%uFFFD) from Lone Pine, CA
239 km (148 miles) W (276%uFFFD) from Las Vegas, NV

Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 0.6 km (0.4 miles); depth /- 2.2 km (1.4 miles)
Parameters Nph=030, Dmin=19 km, Rmss=0.28 sec, Gp= 79%uFFFD,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=C
Source California Integrated Seismic Net:
USGS Caltech CGS UCB UCSD UNR
Event ID ci14519780
goodnight!
285. xcool
LONE PINE, Calif. — A 3-day-old earthquake sequence in a remote area of eastern California has thundered back to life with temblors ranging up to a preliminary estimate of magnitude-5.2.

The quakes occurred Friday evening 17 miles southeast of the town of Lone Pine in the arid Owens Valley below the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada, about 180 miles north of Los Angeles.

The automated seismic network operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and other institutions reports the 5.2 quake was preceded by a 4.7 and a 4.9 between 6:09 p.m. and 6:15 p.m.

Inyo County sheriff's dispatcher Carol Drew says no damage or injuries have been reported, but the department has received several calls about the quakes.

A magnitude-5 earthquake occurred in the same area early Wednesday and has been followed by dozens of aftershocks each day.
me 2 guys V out
282. Bordonaro 2:47 AM GMT on October 03, 2009 Hide this comment.
Compliments of USGS, notice all the CAL quakes over 3.0 Mw


Mental note to self... don't move S of Keeler, CA
img src="" alt="" />
Thanks For The Update Dr. Masters.
- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
Quoting Orcasystems:
282. Bordonaro 2:47 AM GMT on October 03, 2009 Hide this comment.
Compliments of USGS, notice all the CAL quakes over 3.0 Mw


Mental note to self... don't move to S of Keeler, CA


Been to California in 1984. Drove up and down the Nimitz Expressway that pancaked in 1989. Remember telling my late wife Sue, "Look at all the hairline fractures on those support beams, next major quake, it's coming down", and it did!

Driving through Palmdale, CA, there is a feature called the "Palmdale Bulge", a part of the Sierra Nevada MT range that the San Andreas fault line runs through, then you look off to your right and you can see the San Andreas fault as far as the eye can see.

There are so many thrust faults (they move up/down) because of the stress on the San Andreas, which is a slip/slide fault. The 6.9 MW Northridge quake was caused by a thrust fault that the seismologists DID NOT even know existed, until the quake!!

But, California is a very beautiful state, though. At the N end of California, San Francisco, there are 7 MAJOR fault lines that run through their metro area.

Quoting Bryant193wx:
Thanks For The Update Dr. Masters.
- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com


ROFL, I just looked.. you have everything except Southern North Carolina.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Been to California in 1984. Drove up and down the Nimitz Expressway that pancaked in 1989. Remember telling my late wife Sue, "Look at all the hairline fractures on those support beams, next major quake, it's coming down", and it did!

Driving through Palmdale, CA, there is a feature called the "Palmdale Bulge", a part of the Sierra Nevada MT range that the San Andreas fault line runs through, then you look off to your right and you can see the San Andreas fault as far as the eye can see.

There are so many thrust faults (they move up/down) because of the stress on the San Andreas, which is a slip/slide fault. The 6.9 MW Northridge quake was caused by a thrust fault that the seismologists DID NOT even know existed, until the quake!!

But, California is a very beautiful state, though. At the N end of California, San Francisco, there are 7 MAJOR fault lines that run through their metro area.



I have been all over California, and SD & SF extensively (second and third Canadian Westcoast Naval Ports). I live on Vancouver Island which is on the same Fault line.

They have evidence on the West Coast of Vancouver Island of Tidal waves over 400' going up some of the Inlets, due to sea slides along the ridge.

Link

FYI. Above link from the USGS, showing all the recent quakes measured since the first 5 MW Keesler, CA quake. notice, how MANY aftershocks have taken place.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I have been all over California, and SD & SF extensively (second and third Canadian Westcoast Naval Ports). I live on Vancouver Island which is on the same Fault line.

They have evidence on the West Coast of Vancouver Island of Tidal waves over 400' going up some of the Inlets, due to sea slides along the ridge.



I feel for you, living on the San Andreas. I am living in Nashville, TN, oh, about 160MI away from the dreaded mid-continent fault, the New Madrid, that caused 7.7-8.2MW earthquakes felt in Boston, MA in 1811-12. And its due to go off again soon!
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link

FYI. Above link from the USGS, showing all the recent quakes measured since the first 5 MW Keesler, CA quake. notice, how MANY aftershocks have taken place.


Here is another good link with a graphical interface

Link
Current Conditions Manila wu-page

Manila, PH (Airport)

Updated: 27 min 15 sec ago
Light Rain
82 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 82 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the WSW
Pressure: 29.65 in (Falling)

WunderMap®
Quoting Bordonaro:


I am really beginning to wonder if these swarms or quakes near Kessler, CA are number one, foreshocks of a major quake to come or number two, that alot of fault movement is gradually relieving the stress. I hope its the second scenario!


I'm living in San Diego now...I asked the same thing the other night...we have had dogs hiding for two days now. They are all healthy but acting VERY wierd lately. I will say though - I'll take the little tremors over the big ones any day. 1.5 you don't really even feel if you're at all busy doing anything. You might mistake it for your wash machine being on spin cycle in the same floor of where you are. It's that mild.
Quoting melwerle:


I'm living in San Diego now...I asked the same thing the other night...we have had dogs hiding for two days now. They are all healthy but acting VERY wierd lately.


Where abouts in SD, approx?
Hi Orca - living almost 9 miles from the border in Chula Vista (Eastlake 91915). There's been a bunch of little quakes all over but none that I have felt - and I can hear them coming when they are around 4 or so. Little tremors from what I understand are better than having it totally quiet. Something about releasing pressure often. Could be all nonsense...been watching hurricanes on the east coast up until two months ago so I have to brush up again on my earthquake stuff.
Quoting melwerle:


I'm living in San Diego now...I asked the same thing the other night...we have had dogs hiding for two days now. They are all healthy but acting VERY wierd lately. I will say though - I'll take the little tremors over the big ones any day. 1.5 you don't really even feel if you're at all busy doing anything. You might mistake it for your wash machine being on spin cycle in the same floor of where you are. It's that mild.


Good evening, ''Georgia chick''. I hope that you and yours are doing well, tonight.
Quoting Chicklit:
At least they're making preparations Aussie.
I think they'll be okay since Parma is going to be down to a CAT 1 at landfall in the north.
The rain is one thing; the wind is something else. I'm glad it's not making landfall further south. The mountains should help to weaken it although the landslides are going to be wicked. They should know the lay of the land and where best to go, right?
if it slows down like they are predicted, they could get 20 inches and they dont need that.
303. xcool









Quoting melwerle:
Hi Orca - living almost 9 miles from the border in Chula Vista (Eastlake 91915). There's been a bunch of little quakes all over but none that I have felt - and I can hear them coming when they are around 4 or so. Little tremors from what I understand are better than having it totally quiet. Something about releasing pressure often. Could be all nonsense...been watching hurricanes on the east coast up until two months ago so I have to brush up again on my earthquake stuff.


I have golfed in your neck of the woods before :) Very nice area...

ROFL, a lot nicer then Chula Vista (bay area), which I normally go thru very fast on the Trolly to TJ
Quoting melwerle:
Hi Orca - living almost 9 miles from the border in Chula Vista (Eastlake 91915). There's been a bunch of little quakes all over but none that I have felt - and I can hear them coming when they are around 4 or so. Little tremors from what I understand are better than having it totally quiet. Something about releasing pressure often. Could be all nonsense...been watching hurricanes on the east coast up until two months ago so I have to brush up again on my earthquake stuff.


Out of curiousity, do any of your friends, neighbors or relatives have pets? If so, have they mentioned their pets exhibiting weird behavior?
Trolly area is miserable!!! Two golf course within a few miles of our house - Eastlake and Saltwater. I love the mountain views from both...

things here got pretty miserable with the housing stuff and a good majority of the houses here are in foreclosure (our street alone has 8 that I've counted with the "do not trespass signs...that doesn't include the ones that are vacant with no signs up yet). It was a nice area but almost like a ghost town right now. We were VERY fortunate to get a short sale and be able to come home. If you make it back this way - let me know - we'll take you out golfing. Torrey Pines is not that far and since we're residents...

Supposed to get VERY cool here - Monday high of 64. Time to break out the long sleeves. Loving it really - can spend all my time outside now instead of being in Savannah - where I locked myself in the house until the heat broke (from May till October).
305. We just moved in a few months ago - we don't know a good majority of what neighbors are left here right now. Last night though trying to get the dogs out from under tables was stupid...we've had little tremors that we can't feel all around us but nothing in our immediate area that have felt. We have company in from Savannah right now too - I just gave him the speech about sleeping with clothes on etc and if something starts shaking to either get under a table or get out in the backyard. No wires, no poles etc out there. Can't take too much precaution in at least warning. I think the whole "get in a doorway" is crap now..."get under something sturdy" is the new way of thinking. I have to go buy Earthquakes for Dummies now.
anyone still up?
Quoting melwerle:
Trolly area is miserable!!! Two golf course within a few miles of our house - Eastlake and Saltwater. I love the mountain views from both...

things here got pretty miserable with the housing stuff and a good majority of the houses here are in foreclosure (our street alone has 8 that I've counted with the "do not trespass signs...that doesn't include the ones that are vacant with no signs up yet). It was a nice area but almost like a ghost town right now. We were VERY fortunate to get a short sale and be able to come home. If you make it back this way - let me know - we'll take you out golfing. Torrey Pines is not that far and since we're residents...

Supposed to get VERY cool here - Monday high of 64. Time to break out the long sleeves. Loving it really - can spend all my time outside now instead of being in Savannah - where I locked myself in the house until the heat broke (from May till October).


I have played Torry Pines about 5 times.. I love it :) Its easily one of the top 3 courses I have ever played.

I also like Balboa Park, Admiral Baker, (both courses), and Sea & Air course :)

Quoting TampaSpin:
On my Website i have links to most everything one needs to monitor Earthquakes. It updates everytime you refresh.
i love your website, it is very informative.
309 - Orca - hubby plays Admiral Baker almost every weekend. There is also a nice course right on the ocean on Coronado...

LOVE being home. It's the bomb! The sailing here is pretty good too although the water is freezing. did a race to the coronado islands last weekend and it was really nice - weather was PERFECT and no bugs.

Quoting Canekid98:
MAP 3.3 2009/10/03 02:27:06 36.383 -117.853 3.8 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.6 2009/10/03 02:19:56 36.656 -121.270 11.0 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.9 2009/10/03 02:01:07 38.325 -122.582 5.2 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.5 2009/10/03 01:59:35 36.400 -117.874 6.4 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
MAP 3.0 2009/10/03 01:56:00 36.387 -117.847 4.1 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA



all these happened at least 25min ago in CAL.
http://www.iris.edu/seismon/last30.html
I was right. Hurricane season is over.
314. xcool
SykKid oh nooo
Quoting Bordonaro:
Link

FYI. Above link from the USGS, showing all the recent quakes measured since the first 5 MW Keesler, CA quake. notice, how MANY aftershocks have taken place.
this is a good site also
Quoting melwerle:
305. We just moved in a few months ago - we don't know a good majority of what neighbors are left here right now. Last night though trying to get the dogs out from under tables was stupid...we've had little tremors that we can't feel all around us but nothing in our immediate area that have felt. We have company in from Savannah right now too - I just gave him the speech about sleeping with clothes on etc and if something starts shaking to either get under a table or get out in the backyard. No wires, no poles etc out there. Can't take too much precaution in at least warning. I think the whole "get in a doorway" is crap now..."get under something sturdy" is the new way of thinking. I have to go buy Earthquakes for Dummies now.


Save your money, Google, "Earthquake safety precautions". Print a few copies and MAKE SURE EVERYONE KNOWS what to do, just in case!
Sorry Miss Jackson I am foo real.
318. xcool
SykKid haha lmao
Bloggers in California, has Cal-Tech or any of the other Seismology specialist in California mentioned anything about the Kessler, CA earthquake swarm going on?

There has been over 200 total earthquakes in Kessler, CA in 2 days, not normal!
320. JRRP
Quoting SykKid:
I was right. Hurricane season is over.

yes is true


have a nice day...
The western Pacific sure is going wild.

I have a friend in Manila. He usually repsonds right away and tells me they're fine, but this time I haven't had a peep from him. Hope all is well.
Last update for the night... they should both be making landfall of sorts soon...

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Special Notice

Check out the comedy section if your looking for a chuckle during the slow times.
Quoting SykKid:
I was right. Hurricane season is over.


If past El Nino's are any indication, you are correct. Even during 2004, October was very quiet, and that year had a Modiki El Nino.
i see that troll sykkid is back please ingore he's just asking for trouble again
another 2.1 quake about 7 minutes ago
as i said wekks ago the fatlady has sang and ther 2009 hurricanse season has come to and end!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!capiche
327. xcool
hmm
328. xcool
tacoman poof
Quoting btwntx08:
i see that troll sykkid is back please ingore he's just asking for trouble again


Once I saw him, I did without hesitation.
you guys dont want to admit the season is over...lot of you guys need to go get your blood pressure checked...im worried about you..
331. xcool
tacoman i just got my blood pressure checked ;)
332. xcool
Link


new model anyone !
another 4.7 quake jsut occured about 5 min ago and 12 little quakes in the 10 min hmmmm
334. xcool
btwntx08 where at ???
wow another one 2.9 5 min ago damn this is too active there
xcool keeler,ca i think everyone was talking a bit earlier in here
337. xcool
btwntx08.oh yeah opp
1.7 again and right over the place again
339. xcool
10-02) 21:37 PDT KEELER, CALIF. -- A series of small earthquakes clustered around Owens Valley on the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada concerned some residents, but did not cause injuries or damage.


About 20 relatively minor quakes struck the region Friday evening and Thursday, said Susan Hough, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey. The quakes ranged from 3.0 to 5.2 at 6:15 p.m. Friday.

"It's fortunate this is a pretty remote area. If this were happening in San Francisco or L.A., a lot of people would be getting stressed," she said.

The earthquakes were centered in the virtual ghost town of Keeler, about 15 miles south of Lone Pine in Inyo County, which is just over 200 miles northeast of Los Angeles on Highway 395.

Hough said larger quakes were possible but not likely. "There is the potential for big quakes in that area, but there are a lot of little faults," she said.

The first earthquake was a magnitude 5 at 3:01 a.m. Thursday, which was followed by a number of smaller shakes. Friday's most active series of quakes started at 5:32 p.m. with a 3.1 that was followed at 6:09 p.m. by a 4.7 tremor. A minute later, a 4.9 hit before the 5.2 quake. A 3.1 aftershock was record at 8:11 p.m.

Inyo County sheriff's dispatcher Carol Drew said several residents called about the earthquakes, but no problems were reported.

On March 26, 1872, a large earthquake hit Lone Pine, destroyed most of the town and killed 26 of its residents.




Link
there goes another 2.1 now
341. xcool
oh wow
finally a brief break non in the last 10 min
343. xcool
btwntx08 / Not Good For california
Quoting btwntx08:
finally a brief break non in the last 10 min

Check again, they recently had a 4.7MW!!
Oops, my bad you're right!!
1.9 occured at 11:02 pm pst
346. xcool





2.0 3 minutes ago
3.0 now
349. xcool
WHAT REALLY Go-on"
the quakes just keep pulsing up and down between 1.6-3.0 or a bit higher
351. xcool
btwntx08 .yeah way to higher.
352. xcool
im out bye
2.9 3 minutes ago....and i'm out too bye xcool
Good night everyone. Be blessed sleep well & pray for the nation of the Phillipines, JTWC expects landfall at 0900UTC or 4AM CDT today!
Quoting xcool:







With all due respect iceman, that shear map isn't particularly accurate. Even during the winter months, it almost always has favorable shear.
Quoting JLPR:


impressive


And today as well............



Our attention above it:
Link
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "PEPENG" has made landfall over the Eastern Coast of Cagayan and is now traversing Extreme Northern Luzon

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) located at 17.9ºN 121.9ºE or 40 kms northeast of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (95 kts) with gusts up to 210 km/h (110 kts).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Batanes group of Island
2.Cagayan
3.Babuyan and Calayan Island
4.Ilocos Norte
5.Ilocos Sur
6.Mountain Province
7.Abra
8.Apayao
9.Kalinga
10.Northern Isabela

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Rest of Isabela
2.Ifugao
3.Nueva Vizcaya
4.Benguet
5.La Union

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.Quirino
2.Aurora
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Pangasinan

Additional Information
===========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
TYPHOON PARMA (T0917)
18:00 PM JST October 3 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon Overland Luzon (Philippines)

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Parma (960 hPa) located at 18.1N 121.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
==================
200 NM from the center in west quadrant
160 NM from the center in east quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 19.4N 121.1E - 70 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 20.1N 120.9E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 20.7N 120.9E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Good saturday morning WU...prayers up for the Phillipines.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "PEPENG" has made landfall over the Eastern Coast of Cagayan and is now traversing Extreme Northern Luzon

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) located at 17.9ºN 121.9ºE or 40 kms northeast of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (95 kts) with gusts up to 210 km/h (110 kts).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Batanes group of Island
2.Cagayan
3.Babuyan and Calayan Island
4.Ilocos Norte
5.Ilocos Sur
6.Mountain Province
7.Abra
8.Apayao
9.Kalinga
10.Northern Isabela

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
1.Rest of Isabela
2.Ifugao
3.Nueva Vizcaya
4.Benguet
5.La Union

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph)

Luzon Region
1.Quirino
2.Aurora
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Pangasinan

Additional Information
===========================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be alert against big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.



I see pepinga made landfall. May g_d help those in its path as it looks quite impressive.

Good Morning

What is wrong with the NHC?

Not even a mentioned of 90L and there is mounting evidence this was a subtropical storm?

90L's warm core at 200 mb

364. P451
Good Morning. I see 90L, which really should be STS Grace, has made a come back. If anyone remembers the satellite image I posted yesterday it looked like a hurricane (I know it was not, but, it was at least a strong STS).

YESTERDAY:




TODAY:

Quoting P451:
Good Morning. I see 90L, which really should be STS Grace, has made a come back. If anyone remembers the satellite image I posted yesterday it looked like a hurricane (I know it was not, but, it was at least a strong STS).

YESTERDAY:




TODAY:



QS showed the strongest winds near the center and an increase in deep convection near the center all defines a STS.
366. P451
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

What is wrong with the NHC?

Not even a mentioned of 90L and there is mounting evidence this was a subtropical storm?

90L's warm core at 200 mb



I don't understand it either. They have been terrible this year on a number of systems - or according to them - non-systems.

I just don't get it.

Even simple things like putting a yellow circle around the sheared convection free mess just east of the Islands but not even talking about the stronger region east of that.

They've been terrible. I know everyone sung their praises on Bill but other than that everything else has really been a mess. From dropping the ball on 92 and 90 (I'd say one, and I forget which one, was absolutely to be named - the May one?) to Erika and Danny (claiming 50 and 60mph systems because of a few rain contaminated regions far removed from the center supporting such numbers) to this now.

Again, whoever is in charge this past year - of being the final word on everyone's work over there - needs to be canned.



367. P451
Quoting Weather456:


QS showed the strongest winds near the center and an increase in deep convection near the center all defines a STS.


I absolutely agree. This is Grace. Are they not naming it because of where it is and it's SSTs? If that is the reason they need to change their rules.

368. P451
Closed for business!

369. P451


good morning expect the atlantic to pick up this next week its turn.
good morning guys what new talk to me
Question for anyone. What is the difference between the QuickScat ascending and descending information besides the time change? Another sad month for the far western Pacific.

From 8 a.m. NHC Discussion:
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. REMAINING MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...AND CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 25W-30W.
Quoting Chicklit:
There has been a series of minor to moderate earthquakes in the California/Nevada border over the past 15 hours or so. Might this be signalizing that there is a big one to come, i honestly don't know.


03-OCT-2009 11:37:10
36.39 -117.87 4.5 1.2 CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER REGION


03-OCT-2009 05:31:57
36.40 -117.87 4.7 1.6 CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER REGION

03-OCT-2009 01:15:59 36.39 -117.88 5.2 0.0 CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER REGION

03-OCT-2009 01:09:18 36.39 -117.86 4.7 0.1 CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER REGION
Good morning to all. Shishaldin/Alaska is blowing.



(edit) look further to post 397
Sorry, in some way this was the wrong volcano. New is the activity of Cleveland (no webicorders available).

Report
Satellite data indicate that Cleveland volcano erupted briefly this morning at ~0730 UTC (2330 AKDT) 02 October 2009, producing an ash cloud to maximum altitudes of 15,000' to 20,000' (4.5 - 6.1 km). Thus, the aviation color code is being increased to Orange, and the volcano alert level is being increased to Watch. Further eruptive activity is possible.

The lack of a real-time seismic network at Cleveland means that AVO is unable to track local earthquake activity related to volcanic unrest. Short-lived explosions with ash plumes that could exceed 20,000 ft above sea level can occur without warning and may go undetected on satellite imagery.
MJO moved in towards 0, which could be the end of new TC developments for the WestPac. Now if it would stay close to zero, rather than a spike, we might not get our own TC developments in the Atlantic or anywhere else.

No guarantee the GFS has it right, of course. The ensemble solution has verified better this season and would be less conducive for our own developments.
Cleveland has a Volcano?
(edited)Forget it, I found it.. I thought you meant the city.

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Special Notice

Tonight Carson Valley (10 miles SE of Lake Tahoe)NOAA forecast:

Windy. Areas of blowing dust in the evening. Slight chance of rain and snow in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Snow level 5500 feet lowering to the valley floor (4900 feet). Snow accumulation up to 1 inch above 5000 feet. Lows 28 to 38. West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph after midnight.
Parma not really visible from Taiwan's radar. Anyone seeing a better radar? I cannot seem to find one for the Philippines.

Check out the Portlight WU Featured Blog...Stormjunkie is enroute to the Baxters ...you can watch it unfold live...plus...he's gonna eat a bunch of Krystals...

Link
Melor should be just past North of Saipan now. Wave heights 33 feet, Wind 120 Kt with gust to 145 Kt. Storm center is approx 100 - 150 miles north of the island. I have family on that island.
Quoting presslord:
Check out the Portlight WU Featured Blog...Stormjunkie is enroute to the Baxters ...you can watch it unfold live...plus...he's gonna eat a bunch of Krystals...

Link


Great job as always PressLord. Incredible service you provide for many. Hats off to you and John and others that work so hard. Gotta give PatRap his dues also. Thanks for all you do.
Quiet in the Western Atlantic This Morning. Will These Upper Level Winds Weaken At All?

- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
StormW,

When it made landfall along the Azores 1 October I think the SSTs were along the borderline of 23C but dropped (as you said) as it moved more towards the north on the 2nd and 3rd. Now the high res pics of 90L south of the Azores on 1 October did not seem to indicate any occluded fronts so 90L may of been a STS even before the comeback yesterday.
Quoting StormW:
Speaking of STS's...I have my own thoughts on the matter, since there is such inconsistencies...for naming purposes, leave it to PURELY tropical systems. If a cold core transisitions to a purley tropical entity...name it...otherwise, put it in the Marine Forecast as a Gale Center.


very true, or give them separate designations
Storm...I got hold of a guy yesterday aafternoon....will know Monday...he works nfor a member of Congress and was pretty positive...nobody for him to talk with in the big five sided buildeing late yesterday....but his boss is on board...so I'm optimistic...sorry for not calling...got a big thing going on at work which kept me occupied 'till 11 last night...Thanks!
Good Shot of Parma .

- Bryant
TarHeelWeather.com
Quoting P451:
Good Morning. I see 90L, which really should be STS Grace, has made a come back. If anyone remembers the satellite image I posted yesterday it looked like a hurricane (I know it was not, but, it was at least a strong STS).

YESTERDAY:




TODAY:


Actually, 90L should be STS Henri. That Carolina low a couple months ago should be STS Grace.
I'm not sure Shishaldin has blowed its top....Could be a malfunction of the Webicorder. No report that i have found from AVO making any statement and that Webicorder has been doing that for some time.
399. P451
Quoting StormW:
Speaking of STS's...I have my own thoughts on the matter, since there is such inconsistencies...for naming purposes, leave it to PURELY tropical systems. If a cold core transisitions to a purley tropical entity...name it...otherwise, put it in the Marine Forecast as a Gale Center.


Well, if you recall the NJ-low discussions we all had, I feel the same way. If it's not purely tropical then don't name it. Don't even declare anything as sub-tropical. Just call them hybrid systems. People get the idea.

I have no problem with the idea of reporting a system as a strong hybrid gale center - and advising people it has (50mph or whatever) winds with it. It was done before and it should be done again.

That would end a lot of problems.

The debates would still be there but not the confusion.
400. P451
Quoting Weather456:
Blog Update

Another Subtropical Cyclone

Tropical Update

Typhoon Parma




Better looking than Danny ever was. Yet Danny was a 60mph TS according to the NHC and this one is a deactivated invest.

Meh...whatever I guess. Accuracy and continuity is important however and they have failed to achieve this.
Quoting Cazatormentas:


And today as well............



Our attention above it:
Link
Muy buena informacion.It will be call a depression after post season analisis , the only reason NHC don't call it so, is because is under cold waters, i think.
I expect one more small burst of activity in the Atlantic for '09. I am dying to post graphics, but I have nothing to post them about....only the WPAC storms.
397. TampaSpin, I think you're right. Shishaldin has been still very well shaped, when I last saw the webcam. Actually I refered to Mount Cleveland.
If you all remember tho.....redoubt became active and blew after a very strong quake in the same regions as what has just occured recently. So, if another Valcano was to blow in Alaskain chain, that would be a link to show where stress is released in one place, it is pushed and stress builds in another. Would also account for the recent activity in California.
Quoting P451:


Better looking than Danny ever was. Yet Danny was a 60mph TS according to the NHC and this one is a deactivated invest.

Meh...whatever I guess. Accuracy and continuity is important however and they have failed to achieve this.


And its going to look bad on their part if post season analysis revealed these systems were in fact subtropical at their prime.
Quoting P451:


I don't understand it either. They have been terrible this year on a number of systems - or according to them - non-systems.

I just don't get it.

Even simple things like putting a yellow circle around the sheared convection free mess just east of the Islands but not even talking about the stronger region east of that.

They've been terrible. I know everyone sung their praises on Bill but other than that everything else has really been a mess. From dropping the ball on 92 and 90 (I'd say one, and I forget which one, was absolutely to be named - the May one?) to Erika and Danny (claiming 50 and 60mph systems because of a few rain contaminated regions far removed from the center supporting such numbers) to this now.

Again, whoever is in charge this past year - of being the final word on everyone's work over there - needs to be canned.



Agree 100%.
Quoting barbamz:
397. TampaSpin, I think you're right. Shishaldin has been still very well shaped, when I last saw the webcam. Actually I refered to Mount Cleveland.


Cleveland i don't believe has any Webicoders on it currently.
410. P451
Quoting Ameister12:

Actually, 90L should be STS Henri. That Carolina low a couple months ago should be STS Grace.


Well, if we're going to split hairs, it's probably Ida or Joaquin.

...and this is exactly why the STS naming is a problem.

It's either tropical or it's not.

If it meets 99 of 100 necessary flags to acquire tropical status then it's not a tropical storm and shouldn't be named.

This one though, 90L, is most certainly tropical in every way imaginable. The NJ Low was debatable.
411. P451
Quoting StormW:


I agree. However, since they still are naming STS's, the criteria were met, and it should have been named.


Yes, yes, any debate aside, I am with you on that.
I'm out too......everyone have a good day!
Good morning to everyone! Has there been any work out of he Phlippines concerning TY Parma? Any interesting radar snapshots from the Philippines or Saipan?
Anyone want to email the NHC regarding 90L? Seems like they've blatantly ignored it.
Guam Radar

Long Range Radar

You can see Melor's eye on the Long Range
The 90L in May will most likely be upgraded post-season, so we can ATLEAST at +1 to this year.

92L, the STS that hit New Jersey (with some of Erika in it) and now the 90L north of the Azores.. they've dropped the ball 4 times this year.
Good Morning World!!!! :)
Good article to watch with your morning coffee... simple everyday easy to understand explanation.

Cloud Seeding
Hmmm, seems like the NHC has someone that was against the 2002 decision to named these systems. This image justifies everything that is being said this morning and was taken just 45 minutes ago.

Quoting Magicchaos:
Guam Radar

Long Range Radar

You can see Melor's eye on the Long Range


Thanks, Typhoon Melor has bypassed Guam/Saipan, however the Mariana Islands are getting hit pretty hard
Quoting Bordonaro:


Thanks, Typhoon Melor has bypassed Guam/Saipan, however the Mariana Islands are getting hit pretty hard


Simply amazing, ladies and gentleman. The Philippine Government will install their new Doppler Radar by 6-2011, YES 2011

Will some nation or American TV station DONATE one of their Doppler Systems!
Obviously some here are not aware of the realities of life in the PI.
If we extrapolate the QBO to next hurricane season, it will be in its westerly phase (positive), justifying an active hurricane season. The QBO is used mainly to predict seasonal activity but also the health and intensity of such systems.
Quoting msphar:
Obviously some here are not aware of the realities of life in the PI.


Some here aren't aware of the realities of life period.
Hey, check this out:
President Gloria Arroyo has declared a "state of calamity" throughout the island nation and ordered mass evacuations of six provinces.

Typhoon Parma is forecast to bring wind gusts gusts of over 200 kilometers per hour along with drenching rain likely to cause considerable flooding in the northern part of the Philippines.

Arroyo's declaration of emergency frees up funds to help the government respond to emergencies.

The commander of U.S. troops in the Pacific region, Admiral Timothy Keating, says two U.S. Navy ships with several hundred Marines on board are off the coast of Manila, ready to help after the typhoon passes. Link
430. IKE
NEW BLOG!


I we name this we need to start naming the extratropical warm-cores (at least warmer core than this) we see occasionally off Greenland... water & air temps have been too cold to call it tropical..it's not barely 60ºF outside when a STS passes over head.