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Typhoon Nuri Poised to Become an Alaskan Super Storm; Vance Drenching Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on November 04, 2014

Typhoon Nuri lost its "Super" designation Monday night, after the top winds fell below 150 mph, but remains poised to transition this weekend to one of the strongest extratropical storms ever to affect Alaska. Nuri intensified from a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds to a very high-end Category 5 with 180 mph winds on Sunday, tying Super Typhoon Vongfong for strongest tropical cyclone of 2014 (as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.) Satellite loops show that Nuri remains a formidable storm, with a large area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops and a prominent eye. Fortunately, Nuri is not expected to directly threaten any land areas, with the storm passing far enough from Japan on Thursday to keep the heavy rain area out to sea. However, once Nuri loses its tropical characteristics and moves into the Bering Sea to the west of Alaska on Friday, a very powerful jet stream will interact with ex-Nuri and cause it to rapidly intensify into one of the strongest low pressure systems ever observed in the Pacific Ocean. The GFS and European models continue to predict that the extratropical version of Super Typhoon Nuri will become a powerful sub-925 mb low with hurricane-force winds in the western Aleutian Islands on Friday night and Saturday morning. The 00Z Tuesday run of the European model predicted that ex-Nuri would bottom out at 920 mb at 06Z Saturday, a few hundred miles west of the westernmost Aleutian Islands. The 00Z Tuesday GFS model had the storm reaching 924 mb a few hundred miles northeast of there. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the all-time Alaska low pressure record is 926 mb at Dutch Harbor on October 25, 1977. Ex-Nuri would have a chance to beat that record if its center passed over one of the Aleutian islands on Saturday morning, but this morning's model runs predicted that the center would miss the westernmost Aleutian Island, Attu, by several hundred miles. Ex-Nuri will bring substantial impacts to the Aleutian Islands and coastal areas of southwest Alaska over the weekend, with the threat of damaging winds near hurricane force and a significant storm surge.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Nuri in the Pacific at 01:55 UTC November 4, 2014. At the time, Nuri was a weakening Category 4 storm with top sustained winds of 150 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Vance a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico
Hurricane Vance in the Eastern Pacific off the coast of Mexico is steadily weakening as high wind shear of 35 - 40 knots tears into the storm. Satellite images show that Vance is barely recognizable as a hurricane, with an elongated disorganized appearance. Wind shear is expected to rise even higher before Vance reaches the Mexican coast late Wednesday morning, and this may be sufficient to tear Vance apart before landfall. Regardless of whether or not Vance makes it to the coast as a tropical storm, flooding rains will be the primary threat; heavy rains of 4 - 8" will affect the Mexican coast northwest of Puerto Vallarta on Tuesday and Wednesday. In their 10 am EST Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave a 3 - 12% chance that Vance would bring tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph to Puerto Vallarta and the tip of the Baja Peninsula. Moisture from Vance is streaming to the northeast over Texas, and Flash Flood Watches are posted from Del Rio to Austin for 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to 7 inches, though Wednesday morning.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Vance of the Pacific coast of Mexico at 20:50 UTC November 3, 2014. At the time, Vance was a peak-strength Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 110 mph. Strong upper level winds from the southwest were disrupting the heavy thunderstorms on Vance's southwest side. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. M. Going to be interesting to watch this powerful extratropical system develop and how it affects the 49th state. Anyone know much about Dutch harbor and the fishing industry there outside of the show?
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
tough to be out there fishing this weekend
The fourth time in the last 60 days :

South-eastern France hit by violent storms


Winds reached up to 160km/h in parts of the Rhône Valley overnight on Monday.

The country’s meteorological service Météo France said heavy rains will continue in the region until Wednesday morning. As much as 450mm of rain could fall before the storms pass.


Link
Anybody think ex-Nuri will become a lower 48 winter storm?
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY POWERFUL STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
STARTING LATE THIS FRIDAY. SUPER TYPHOON NURI (CURRENTLY LOCATED
650 NM SOUTH OF JAPAN) IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC ON THURSDAY AND SWITCH FROM TROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA EARLY ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE
BERING SEA...AN EXTREMELY STRONG JET WILL PROMOTE RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS...WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO THE 925 TO 935
MB RANGE. THIS WOULD BRING A LARGE SWATCH OF STORM AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND THE
ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING A BIT WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS THE ECMWF HAS A 918 MB SOLUTION AND
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS/GEM AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO GET TIGHTER IN LOW
PLACEMENT AND DEPICT DEEPER SOLUTIONS.
WITH THE PACIFIC NORTH
AMERICAN RIDGE AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA...THE REMNANTS OF NURI WILL BE TRAPPED IN THE
BERING SEA THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS...HIGH SEAS...AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO MUCH
OF THE BERING SEA AND COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
COASTAL
EROSION AND POTENTIAL FOR STORM SURGE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN
THE DAYS TO COME. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE RISE THAT A VERY
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT BERING SEA BY LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
1. win1gamegiantsplease

Looks like the fleet put to sea last Saturday.

November

– Nov.1 – Nov. 13: Area 1 King Crab (red)

Link
Quoting 6. vongfong2014:

Anybody think ex-Nuri will become a lower 48 winter storm?


I was wondering the same thing...
Exciting prospects for Nuri. Thank you for the coverage, doc. Here's the storm on the blue marble:


Saved loop. Source.
next week large long period swells are predicted on the north shore of oahu. acc/ to pat caldwell nws. oahu the event will occur from 11/10-11/13
NWS Alaska daily weather update.

right side of the page - click to play

Link
Quoting 6. vongfong2014:
Anybody think ex-Nuri will become a lower 48 winter storm?


If you read Pcroton's blog here on wunderground, he is looking at how the potential is there for a storm to develop Sunday/Monday for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast due to how ex-Nuri may amplify the trough in the east. A lot going on and the forecast models are having a heck of a time figuring it out. They had a heck of a time figuring out the last storm too. We didn't have a good idea of the snow ammounts for Maine until Saturday afternoon.
Irony. Levi moves to Florida hoping to experience a hurricane and Alaska may experience a hurricane-like storm.
Irony. Dakster moves from Florida to Alaska to get away from the heat and storms.

This event could be interesting to watch. Hopefully it does not affect much land. Sandy, if I remember, was around 945 mb.
Quoting 9. Storms306:



I was wondering the same thing...
I hope we can get some snow from it. I didnt get a single 1 foot snowstorm last winter!
Thanks Doc..Nuri a true superstorm.
Quoting 5. ColoradoBob1:

The fourth time in the last 60 days :

South-eastern France hit by violent storms


Winds reached up to 160km/h in parts of the Rh%uFFFDne Valley overnight on Monday.

The country%u2019s meteorological service M%uFFFDt%uFFFDo France said heavy rains will continue in the region until Wednesday morning. As much as 450mm of rain could fall before the storms pass.


Link



GFS gale (surface) forecast for France and adjacent countries for today (Click to enlarge). Very violent southerlies at the forefront of this deep trough!

At the northern side of the Alps those strong southerly winds (called "Foehn" in Germany), surmounting the Alps, use to bring very warm air, sunny weather and headache. Today temperatures in Munich hit 23C (73.4F)! Meanwhile clouds with torrential rains are stuck at the southern side of the moutains.


"Foehn"windstorm in the Alps (Switzerland) today. At 3:30 you can see the gales on the surface of the meadow.

The large trough over western Europe (caused by "Pia") is easily to spot:







From Estofex' Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 04 Nov 2014 06:00 to Wed 05 Nov 2014 06:00 UTC, Issued: Tue 04 Nov 2014 00:40, Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for S/SE France and NW Italy mainly for excessive rain. ...
SYNOPSIS
A deep trough over W-Europe amplifies towards N-Morocco/Algeria. Its core (a closed cyclonic vortex) is situated over the UK with another temporal development over NE Spain. A flat ridge covers the rest of the Mediterranean all the way to Belarus.
Low/mid tropospheric levels feature a broad area with low pressure. Again, temporal strengthening of a vortex is anticipated over the far NW Mediterranean. This feature and an eastbound moving cold front comprise the severe risk. Elsewhere, no synoptic feature interacts with adequate moisture/shear for organized DMC. ...


Very detailed discussion see the link above.
We may need to think about changing the Pacific's name if it keeps producing these monster storms!
Thanks Jeff. VOTE!!...
Quoting 6. vongfong2014:

Anybody think ex-Nuri will become a lower 48 winter storm?


If this were to happen it would be at least 14 days away, from the Anchorage NWS discussion:
"WITH THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AMPLIFYING IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA...THE REMNANTS OF NURI WILL BE TRAPPED IN THE
BERING SEA THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK."
Source:
http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/pubfcst.php?fcst=FXAK68P AFC

Perhaps the better question is: How deep will the east coast trough get next week in response to the jet stream amplification caused by Nuri's extratropical transition?

I tend to think 850 mb temperature anomalies will be on the order of -15C, which could easily break numerous cold records along with bringing some wintry weather.

Quoting 1. win1gamegiantsplease:

Thanks Dr. M. Going to be interesting to watch this powerful extratropical system develop and how it affects the 49th state. Anyone know much about Dutch harbor and the fishing industry there outside of the show?

According to the Alaska Fishing Jobs network website, which is supposedly linked with Alaska Commercial Fisheries, this storm will be impacting the Red King Crab season in the Bering Sea: http://www.alaskafishingjobsnetwork.com/getting-a- job/alaska-fisheries-calendar-and-seasons/
look at the latest models show very cold air for south fla
Quoting 19. NttyGrtty:

Thanks Jeff. VOTE!!...

Yes. Vote. Because while voting today is no guarantee that your candidate or issue will win, *NOT* voting is a guaranteed way to help them lose...


17. barbamz

Thanks , check out the jet stream on the Climate Reanalyzer, it goes almost due North from that very tight loop in Southern France :

Link
Could Nuri end up being WInter Storm Astro?
If we also go by the Bering Sea Rule(2.5-3 weeks) then the east coast could be dealing with a superstorm themselves by Thanksgiving(all else being equal)!
Thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting 24. Dakster:

Could Nuri end up being WInter Storm Astro?


Sure it could be, but that likely wouldn't happen for at least 14 days due to the blocky pattern taking shape early next week. Personally, I feel the remnants of Nuri would end up tracking through Canada rather than the US due to the strong ridge it will pump up along the west coast this weekend as it deepens into a 920-930 mb low in the Bering Sea.
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT EXCEPT BECOMING W 20 KT W OF 178W IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. W OF 175W...WEST WIND 15 KT. SEAS
7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 25 TO 40 FT.

PKZ499-050230-
338 AM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ON
WED. A 986 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 50N 165W WED MORNING THEN MOVE
TO 51N 159W WED NIGHT AT 976 MB.
Quoting 25. weatherbro:

If we also go by the Bering Sea Rule(2.5-3 weeks) then the east coast could be dealing with a superstorm themselves by Thanksgiving(all else being equal)!
Nah.
Quoting 27. STLweatherjunkie:



Sure it could be, but that likely wouldn't happen for at least 14 days due to the blocky pattern taking shape early next week. Personally, I feel the remnants of Nuri would end up tracking through Canada rather than the US due to the strong ridge it will pump up along the west coast this weekend as it deepens into a 920-930 mb low in the Bering Sea.


I still don't like this winter storm naming thing. It's pure sensationalism by TWC.
Quoting 22. Neapolitan:

Yes. Vote. Because while voting today is no guarantee that your candidate or issue will win, *NOT* voting is a guaranteed way to help them lose...


WOW!! You and I agreeing on something? Something big must be about to happen...
Quoting 25. weatherbro:

If we also go by the Bering Sea Rule(2.5-3 weeks) then the east coast could be dealing with a superstorm themselves by Thanksgiving(all else being equal)!
I will remember you called this. Let's hope it waits until after that weekend, if it pops.
Last year had its problems...


Quoting weatherbro:
If we also go by the Bering Sea Rule(2.5-3 weeks) then the east coast could be dealing with a superstorm themselves by Thanksgiving(all else being equal)!
Not sure about a superstorm, but the end result should be interesting. In the meantime, numerous arctic outbreaks should invade the Central/East USA over the next 10 days. Winter has arrived ahead of schedule.
is there any credible information to back up a forecast of a bad winter for CONUS?

I hear it repeated so often that this winter is supposed to be worse than last year, but I have no absolutely no idea on what basis this is being asserted.
southflacat5 did u see it
Gonna be a lot of rain in my area on Election Day.
VOTE!!!!!!!
Who did everyone vote for? Or is it a secret ballot?
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yes. Vote. Because while voting today is no guarantee that your candidate or issue will win, *NOT* voting is a guaranteed way to help them lose...

Today couldn't have come fast enough. $100 million has been spent on the North Carolina senate race between Tom Tillis and Kay Hagan, more than any other state in history. Every commercial is one attacking the other.
Quoting Dakster:
Could Nuri end up being WInter Storm Astro?

Definitely not Winter Storm Albus.
Quoting 37. 62901IL:

Gonna be a lot of rain in my area on Election Day.
VOTE!!!!!!!
Who did everyone vote for? Or is it a secret ballot?


I voted for Noneya Business. :O)
Quoting 35. redux:

is there any credible information to back up a forecast of a bad winter for CONUS?

I hear it repeated so often that this winter is supposed to be worse than last year, but I have no absolutely no idea on what basis this is being asserted.
I read the NOAA, Accuweather, and TWC winter forecasts and they made mention of snowpack in Eurasia and El Nino. The fact that they didn't agree casts suspicion on all of the forecasts.
Quoting 38. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Today couldn't have come fast enough. $100 million has been spent on the North Carolina senate race between Tom Tillis and Kay Hagan, more than any other state in history. Every commercial is one attacking the other.


Almost every commercial in the STL metro is political ad since both the Illinois and Missouri ones are shown. Yay.....
Quoting redux:
is there any credible information to back up a forecast of a bad winter for CONUS?

I hear it repeated so often that this winter is supposed to be worse than last year, but I have no absolutely no idea on what basis this is being asserted.

Near record Eurasian snowpack leading to a -AO, a -NAO, a PDO, an El Nio-like atmosphere, and a -QBO.

I meant to do my winter outlook this weekend but I got distracted, so it'll be out sometime this week.
Link

Someone was mentioning pollution yesterday.

Researchers have long known that man-made climate change will harm yields of important crops, possibly causing problems for the world’s food security. But new research shows air pollution doesn’t just harm crops indirectly through climate change; it seems to harm them directly.

Pollution from soot and ozone has caused a major decrease of crop yields in India, with some densely populated states experiencing 50% relative yield losses. To ensure the world has enough food, we need to look directly at air pollution.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters....
Quoting 62901IL:

Who will you vote for?
Terri Bryant
Bill Kilquist
Tom Tillis
Kay Hagan
Bruce Raunrer
Other (explain)
Prefer not to say.

AND PLEASE PUT WHY!!!

For example

Terri Bryant
Bill Kilquist
Tom Tillis
Kay Hagan
Bruce Raunrer
Other (explain)
Prefer not to say.

Bill Kilquist because I like the sound of his last name.

None of the above because I'm not old enough to vote until next year. :)
Quoting 42. 62901IL:


Who will you vote for?
Terri Bryant
Bill Kilquist
Tom Tillis
Kay Hagan
Bruce Raunrer
Other (explain)
Prefer not to say.

AND PLEASE PUT WHY!!!

For example

Terri Bryant
Bill Kilquist
Tom Tillis
Kay Hagan
Bruce Raunrer
Other (explain)
Prefer not to say.

Bill Kilquist because I like the sound of his last name.


Dwight Kay's opponent is Cullen Cullen. Yes..... that's his actual name. XD
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

None of the above because I'm not old enough to vote until next year. :)

Thank you. :)
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Dwight Kay's opponent is Cullen Cullen. Yes..... that's his actual name. XD

Thank you :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

None of the above because I'm not old enough to vote until next year. :)


Amen to that :P!
Toasty

Quoting Gearsts:
Toasty

Just imagine it was that in September.
Quoting 23. ColoradoBob1:



17. barbamz

Thanks , check out the jet stream on the Climate Reanalyzer, it goes almost due North from that very tight loop in Southern France :

Link


Thank you, Bob, interesting website. Yes, current jetstream is the culprit of those violent winds associated with the trough over southwestern Europe:


Credit: Climate Reanalyzer.
this is brilliant, congratulations on making intellicast look more intelligent!  i'm talking about the intellicast.com 10-day forecast page.
one thing, tho - any idea how to save your customized settings and make the same tab come up every time you return?


"About the new forecast layout"
"With the help of our friends at Weather Underground, we've enhanced our forecast graph with an updated look and new functionality. Now you can customize the graph by layering on the weather measurements that are important to you. Drill into the hourly forecast by clicking on any day, and choose between either a graph or table views. View the images below to see how it works"
see y'all later.
Quoting 51. 62901IL:


Thank you :)


Doesn't doesn't mean mean I I voted voted for for him him. He He was was at at my my university university today today.
Quoting 13. tlawson48:



If you read Pcroton's blog here on wunderground, he is looking at how the potential is there for a storm to develop Sunday/Monday for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast due to how ex-Nuri may amplify the trough in the east. A lot going on and the forecast models are having a heck of a time figuring it out. They had a heck of a time figuring out the last storm too. We didn't have a good idea of the snow ammounts for Maine until Saturday afternoon.

Put simply, there are going to be some big bends in the jetstream.
Quote 20. & 8.

Ok thank you. Hopefully it won't be too bad, no crab fishing in one coast and no shrimp on the other that's a nightmare.
In case anyone is wondering about the latest development of the threatening rockfall issue in Norway, Dave Petley's landslide blog got an update today:

4 November 2014:
Mount Mannen rockslide – still in an accelerated creep phase of movement
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ 2014110412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ak.html

Gfs has ex-nuri stalling out over the Bering sea.
looks like cold weather for orlando
I was wondering what AGW/CC projections say about such storms in Alaska and I stumbled upon this article featuring our own Dr. Masters:
http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2011/11/ne w-breed-alaskan-hurricane

img src="http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/model s/gfs/2014110412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ak.png style= max-width: 501 pix; width: 500 px"
Umm, off topic, but don't miss a look at this absolutely stunning photo in real size!

http://apod.nasa.gov: Astronomy Picture of the Day
Discover the cosmos! Each day a different image or photograph of our fascinating universe is featured, along with a brief explanation written by a professional astronomer. 2014 November 3:


In Green Company: Aurora over Norway (from March 2014 at the summit of the Austnesfjorden fjord/Lofoten)

Click to enlarge. Image Credit & Copyright: Max Rive. Pay him a visit: This guy really has great shots to offer!
Quoting 64. barbamz:

In case anyone is wondering about the latest development of the threatening rockfall issue in Norway, Dave Petley's landslide blog got an update today:

4 November 2014:
Mount Mannen rockslide – still in an accelerated creep phase of movement



From the link :

That the downslope material is likely to be fragmented, and thus more easily entrained, explains the estimates that the final mobile volume may be in the order of 2 million cubic metres.
Hi all, the radioactive waste pouring into the Pacific Ocean from a nuclear plant in Japan should be of more concern than climate change, something we have little control over. Yes if the waste keeps dumping into the ocean, which has been ongoing for a few years now, we really won't have to worry about the crabs or any other forms of sea life in the area of Japan and eventually the wet coast of the U.S. and Alaska. Lets put our resources and all the money we are spending on something we cannot control, climate change, together and stop the radioactive pollution of the Pacific Ocean something we can control. We can worry about climate change latter, as I do like Alaskan Crabs. Radioactive waste pouring into our ocean is a much larger problem than climate change, who a lot of people blame on a minor trace gas. Methane will be the bigger problem in the future and very little of that is man made.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gf s/ 2014110412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_ak.html

Gfs has ex-nuri stalling out over the Bering sea.
Tim, I don't know if you were trying to copy the GFS loop or what but you can't do that here. You can copy an individual graphic by right clicking inside the graphic and clicking on "Copy image URL". When you get back here, click on the "image button and then paste the URL link in the Image URL dialog box. If you do a reply to my message, you can see the HTML code involved, at least in Classic. I don't know how it looks on the new site but I assume you can still see the code there.



You also cannot just do a copy and paste for a link. This software will screw it up every time by adding additional spaces to the URL, resulting in a 404 error. You have to copy the URL, click on the "Link" button here, and then paste the URL in the resulting dialog box. This is a link to the GFS model page. The dialog box automatically inserts the word "Link" at the end of the link code so it shows up here as just "Link" unless you modify that end phrase.
Link

This is how links and images were typically copied to blogs/message boards back in 2002. WU has never updated this totally obsolete code, even with all the time and money spent on the new site. It drives users who aren't used to all this rigmarole crazy. It does work once you learn it but a blog in 2014 shouldn't make users go through all these hoops just to post a link or image.

/rant off
Quoting 72. NativeSun:
Hi all, the radioactive waste pouring into the Pacific Ocean from a nuclear plant in Japan should be of more concern than climate change, something we have little control over. Yes if the waste keeps dumping into the ocean, which has been ongoing for a few years now, we really won't have to worry about the crabs or any other forms of sea life in the area of Japan and eventually the wet coast of the U.S. and Alaska. Lets put our resources and all the money we are spending on something we cannot control, climate change, together and stop the radioactive pollution of the Pacific Ocean something we can control. We can worry about climate change latter, as I do like Alaskan Crabs. Radioactive waste pouring into our ocean is a much larger problem than climate change, who a lot of people blame on a minor trace gas. Methane will be the bigger problem in the future and very little of that is man made.


"Lets worry about climate change later". Yesterday may already be too late, anything after that certainly will be.
Quoting barbamz:
Umm, off topic, but don't miss a look at this absolutely stunning photo in real size!

http://apod.nasa.gov: Astronomy Picture of the Day
Discover the cosmos! Each day a different image or photograph of our fascinating universe is featured, along with a brief explanation written by a professional astronomer. 2014 November 3:


In Green Company: Aurora over Norway (from March 2014 at the summit of the Austnesfjorden fjord/Lofoten)

Click to enlarge. Image Credit & Copyright: Max Rive. Pay him a visit: This guy really has great shots to offer!
Amazing picture, Barb. It's hard to believe it really looks like those pictures in person but I know it does. In all my world travels, I've never seen a real Aurora. I've been to Iceland, Sweden, Finland, and northern Russia but I was never there at the right time to see a full blown Aurora. I saw kind of half of one in Finland, and got there one day too late to see what the locals said was one of the best ones they had ever seen. I'd still like to see one in person but my time here grows short, just like the Ghost of Christmas Past. :-)
Quoting 72. NativeSun:

Hi all, the radioactive waste pouring into the Pacific Ocean from a nuclear plant in Japan should be of more concern than climate change, something we have little control over. Yes if the waste keeps dumping into the ocean, which has been ongoing for a few years now, we really won't have to worry about the crabs or any other forms of sea life in the area of Japan and eventually the wet coast of the U.S. and Alaska. Lets put our resources and all the money we are spending on something we cannot control, climate change, together and stop the radioactive pollution of the Pacific Ocean something we can control. We can worry about climate change latter, as I do like Alaskan Crabs. Radioactive waste pouring into our ocean is a much larger problem than climate change, who a lot of people blame on a minor trace gas. Methane will be the bigger problem in the future and very little of that is man made.

Nice opinion, that. I mean, it's utterly illogical, devoid of scientific fact, and based on debunked mistruths. But, still: nice.
The Tigre Art Museum is surrounded by the flooded waters of the Luján River, yet another example of the consequences of the rain that has hit Greater Buenos Aires and other rural districts in the province during the last five days. The phenomenon reached new extremes yesterday, with the number of evacuees topping almost 5,300 people across 23 districts, government sources reported yesterday.

Link
Quoting NativeSun:
Hi all, the radioactive waste pouring into the Pacific Ocean from a nuclear plant in Japan should be of more concern than climate change, something we have little control over. Yes if the waste keeps dumping into the ocean, which has been ongoing for a few years now, we really won't have to worry about the crabs or any other forms of sea life in the area of Japan and eventually the wet coast of the U.S. and Alaska. Lets put our resources and all the money we are spending on something we cannot control, climate change, together and stop the radioactive pollution of the Pacific Ocean something we can control. We can worry about climate change latter, as I do like Alaskan Crabs. Radioactive waste pouring into our ocean is a much larger problem than climate change, who a lot of people blame on a minor trace gas. Methane will be the bigger problem in the future and very little of that is man made.
Why are you worried about a very small amount of radioactive waste entering the Pacific from Fukushima? The dilution factor of the Pacific Ocean is huge. Do you have any idea of the total amount of radioactive waste deposited in the Pacific from 1947 to 1996, when the US, Britain, and France were doing atmospheric nuclear tests directly over the ocean? The US alone detonated nuclear weapons totaling about 225 megatons, and the estimates are that the Pacific and the islands absorbed about 60 megatons of fallout. It was a terrible thing, and I'm not trying to justify it, only use it as an example of how tiny the amount is coming from Fukushima. All this fallout obviously did not kill all life in the Pacific, even though the effects near the testing sites were awful. Luckily for humans, the Pacific is a big ocean, and it can survive our stupidity. Stop reading scare sites like ENE News and look at the actual science, just like climate change should be viewed through the lens of science, not tinfoil hat websites.
Quoting 78. ColoradoBob1:

The Tigre Art Museum is surrounded by the flooded waters of the Luján River, yet another example of the consequences of the rain that has hit Greater Buenos Aires and other rural districts in the province during the last five days. The phenomenon reached new extremes yesterday, with the number of evacuees topping almost 5,300 people across 23 districts, government sources reported yesterday.

Link


BBC weather video today has a round-up on the situation in South America (flooding in Buenos Aires and in Peru; drought in Brazil).
Quoting barbamz:
In case anyone is wondering about the latest development of the threatening rockfall issue in Norway, Dave Petley's landslide blog got an update today:

4 November 2014:
Mount Mannen rockslide – still in an accelerated creep phase of movement
So the Man is still hanging on to his rocks I guess. :-) I can imagine how frustrating this is to Norwegian geologists and authorities managing this emergency. I was involved with a much smaller landslide in my days with the Sheriff's Department but we had the same issues. We couldn't let people go back to their homes in the undamaged area of the slide until the rest of it came down. It was supposed to happen "any day now". We sat on that thing for over two months and it did nothing but creep. All the displaced families (I think there something like 22) were eventually moved elsewhere, the area below the slide was cleaned out from the debris left by the wrecked homes, the remaining houses in the path of the slide were demolished, and it was turned into open space. This was back in 1998, and the slide is still there and still creeping. It's really hard to predict what the earth wants to do next.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
100 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles north of
Puerto Rico is associated with the southern end of a frontal
boundary. A low pressure area could form in this area during the
next day or so, and it could briefly acquire subtropical
characteristics tomorrow or Thursday. After that time, development
is not expected while the system moves north-northeastward and
merges with another frontal system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.




WOW!!!!!
Finally some decent rains being projected by just about all the models for both Saturday & Sunday for most of FL (except the FL Panhandle). GFS has totals near an 1" from Tampa to Orlando this weekend.



And with the latest 12Z trends the HPC has trended wetter as well.

Quoting 54. Gearsts:

Toasty




Oh my, that's about as classic of a SST signature your going to see in advance of a (potentially) strong & predominantly -NAO regime in the following winter. I really like the placement of the cold pool halfway between Atlantic Canada & Western Europe near & just above the "critical" latitude of 40N to encourage the jet stream to undercut the Icelandic Vortex, and thus promote significant blocking in the vicinity of Greenland...

North Atlantic SSTs preceding -NAO winters with averaged DJF anomalies exceeding 1 standard deviation below normal. Most appreciable signal in SSTs, not surprisingly is near 40N halfway between Atlantic Canada & Western Europe




Now subtracting the mean SST anomalies from this subset by using yrs that exceed +1 standard deviation above normal for DJF mean NAO, once again, there's a cool SST signal near 40N in the north Atlantic. This image is arguably a more accurate representation of the current SST anomaly distribution ...


The 500mb pattern in these years obviously featured a classic -NAO, with some variance noted over the arctic due to other parameters, however, the persistence of cool SST in the aforementioned region of the north Atlantic appears to serve as an antecedent to the following winter's NAO. This is more widely known as the positive Atlantic Tripole and this signal by my account has gone relatively undetected & has seemed to sit right under the noses of most, as the primary focus in various winter outlooks I have read through thus far has been heavily weighted more towards the AO and the influence from Eurasia snowpack (& rightfully so), but I believe this most certainly deserves a mention...



One of the most recent & classical example of this SST configuration in advance of winter is the record breaking -NAO winter of 2009. Fairly similar in general, though the water in & around Newfoundland and off the eastern seaboard doesn't appear to quite have the amount of meridional baroclinicity as we observed then (should have been a huge clue where the dominant storm track was going to be, i.e. right off the mid-atlantic), which implies we're in all likelihood not going to see quite as snowy of a winter as 2009-10 for the northeastern US specifically (southeastern US *could* be a different story). In spite of this, the overall pattern looks decent at this point in time.



Monthly NAO Index 1950-Present NOAA ESRL
Link

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Today couldn't have come fast enough. $100 million has been spent on the North Carolina senate race between Tom Tillis and Kay Hagan, more than any other state in history. Every commercial is one attacking the other.


$111 million as of Monday morning in NC. The 1984 Senate election between Jesse Helms and Jim Hunt set the record at the time for the most costly Senate election ever. The cost was $26.3 million. Seems quaint now. I was 14, and remember the campaign vividly.

Cody will you be an armchair psephologist tonight?

Have you voted yet Webberweather? I voted 3 weeks ago.
SAR .... (re: post 75) We get Auroras in Yellowknife, NWT, Canada, most of the Winter, so long as the sky is clear, often a good as the one in that Photo (except we don't have any mountains). Come see for yourself some time.
storm tracker scott looks like cold air for fl for orlando storm tracker scott for this weekend
area north of greater antilles is interesting. next name would be? its an I one
Isaias. I say, that's awful!
thanxs baltimore i looked at that nhc page for 5 minutes looking for the list and gave up. Isaies? okay.
i say it has a good chance to develop but it will not be declared purely tropical even though water temp is adequate.
Quoting 90. eddye:

storm tracker scott looks like cold air for fl for orlando storm tracker scott for this weekend


Warm and wet. No cold air this weekend eddye. Looks like we might be entering a wet pattern based on the GFS & Euro ensembles. Very active southern jet is beginning to get cranked up. I think are "Dry Season" is going to take a back seat for a few months as rain every 3 to 5 days appears to be a good bet going forward. Thank El-Nino for this Winter being so wet in FL.


great day to be outside and go out for lunch !! temp around 65F
storm tracker scott for orlando it shows 73 for a high and 48 degrees for a low
Partly cloudy skies. High near 75F. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 mph.


Friday Night 11/07 0%
Clear skies with a few passing clouds. Low 53F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph
Sun
Nov 9
AM Light Rain 74°
46°
AM Light Rain
CHANCE OF RAIN:
80%

WIND:
WNW at 13 mph
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Isaias. I say, that's awful!


IMO the list this year was brutal. At least we had Arthur, which sounds like a quintessential hurricane name. But Gonzalo?!?!
Quoting 98. eddye:

Partly cloudy skies. High near 75F. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 mph.


Friday Night 11/07 0%
Clear skies with a few passing clouds. Low 53F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph


Rain rolls in Saturday mid day and last thru mid day Sunday per the GFS
102. eddye
look for gfs scott looks like the temps went up a little
103. eddye
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. North wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
Quoting 103. eddye:

Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. North wind around 5 mph.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.


Lot of this rain this weekend across FL is likely the result of Vance's moisture getting entrained into a trough diving South from Canada & a upper low/disturbance moving east on Friday causes low pressure to form in the Central Gulf and roll NE across C FL.

Friday Evening


Saturday Evening

105. eddye
storm tracker scott do u think we can be cold as 2010
Quoting 86. Webberweather53:



Oh my, that's about as classic of a SST signature your going to see in advance of a (potentially) strong & predominantly -NAO regime in the following winter. I really like the placement of the cold pool halfway between Atlantic Canada & Western Europe near & just above the "critical" latitude of 40N to encourage the jet stream to undercut the Icelandic Vortex, and thus promote significant blocking in the vicinity of Greenland...

North Atlantic SSTs preceding -NAO winters with averaged DJF anomalies exceeding 1 standard deviation below normal. Most appreciable signal in SSTs, not surprisingly is near 40N halfway between Atlantic Canada & Western Europe




Now subtracting the mean SST anomalies from this subset by using yrs that exceed +1 standard deviation above normal for DJF mean NAO, once again, there's a cool SST signal near 40N in the north Atlantic. This image is arguably a more accurate representation of the current SST anomaly distribution ...


The 500mb pattern in these years obviously featured a classic -NAO, with some variance noted over the arctic due to other parameters, however, the persistence of cool SST in the aforementioned region of the north Atlantic appears to serve as an antecedent to the following winter's NAO. This is more widely known as the positive Atlantic Tripole and this signal by my account has gone relatively undetected & has seemed to sit right under the noses of most, as the primary focus in various winter outlooks I have read through thus far has been heavily weighted more towards the AO and the influence from Eurasia snowpack (& rightfully so), but I believe this most certainly deserves a mention...



One of the most recent & classical example of this SST configuration in advance of winter is the record breaking -NAO winter of 2009. Fairly similar in general, though the water in & around Newfoundland and off the eastern seaboard doesn't appear to quite have the amount of meridional baroclinicity as we observed then (should have been a huge clue where the dominant storm track was going to be, i.e. right off the mid-atlantic), which implies we're in all likelihood not going to see quite as snowy of a winter as 2009-10 for the northeastern US specifically (southeastern US *could* be a different story). In spite of this, the overall pattern looks decent at this point in time.



Monthly NAO Index 1950-Present NOAA ESRL
Link




The winter of 2009-2010 was a rather notable one for both cold temperatures and snowfall, so hopefully with a similar pattern occuring (-NAO and onset of an El Nino) the UK could see something similar, but maybe not as extreme. (It was the coldest winter in over 30 years).

Actually, the past 3/5 winters have been below average and rather extreme at times (2009-2010, 2010-2011 saw the coldest December on record (Average temperature of -1C beatng the previous record of 0.1C) and the 2012-2013 saw below average temperatures and basically extended into March which was the second coldest March on record).
Quoting 105. eddye:

storm tracker scott do u think we can be cold as 2010


I think maybe a little less cold for FL than 2009/2010 but maybe more severe weather event for FL instead. We still will get cold but maybe not as brutal as it was that Winter however the rest of the SE US maybe in for a record Winter in terms of snow & ice. JMO
12z GFS 2m Temperature Anomaly map valid 18z November 12 (198hrs):



...yikes.

18z run starts soon.
109. eddye
storm tracker scott do u see the cold front for the 14th 2 be cold
Quoting GreatSlaveLake:
SAR .... (re: post 75) We get Auroras in Yellowknife, NWT, Canada, most of the Winter, so long as the sky is clear, often a good as the one in that Photo (except we don't have any mountains). Come see for yourself some time.
I was in Yellowknife back in the early 80's. I imagine it's changed a bit since then. It was summer, and every flying insect up there seems to have jaws that size of a small shark. :-) Unfortunately, no Auroras then either. Is winter the best time to see them or do they occur randomly throughout the year?
111. eddye
. TropicalAnalystwx13 that map looks cold for florida 2
Quoting 108. TropicalAnalystwx13:

12z GFS 2m Temperature Anomaly map valid 18z November 12 (198hrs):



...yikes.

18z run starts soon.


Euro is similar but farther out in time
113. eddye
storm tracker scott can i have the link for that plz
The Deadliest Catch?

King Crab season opened on October 15th. Currently the season lasts from two to four weeks.

That means that the remnants of Nuri are going to be in the Bering Sea just as the king crab season comes to a close.

I'll be monitoring the situation to see if any boats get into trouble.
Look at the December forecast from the CFSv2 model. Very dangerous set up for the eastern US as Gulf low would bomb in the set up near the Mid Atlantic. Yikes!!!!

116. eddye
thats cold for fl
Quoting 116. eddye:

thats cold for fl


That red in the center of the US would be Arctic Air which would head south into FL at times in this set up and cause snowstorms near the Mid Atlantic to New England.
118. eddye
and we could see 30 storm tracker scott
The CPC suggests a further continuation of last winter's schizophrenic cold-in-the-east-and-hot-in-the-west paradigm:

Quoting 115. StormTrackerScott:

Look at the December forecast from the CFSv2 model. Very dangerous set up for the eastern US as Gulf low would bomb in the set up near the Mid Atlantic. Yikes!!!!



That 500mb height pattern will turn out to be blatantly wrong if we get the -NAO/-AO configuration I think we will. That pattern would support above-average temperatures across most of the lower 48; i think it'll turn out to be just the opposite.
Quoting 115. StormTrackerScott:

Look at the December forecast from the CFSv2 model. Very dangerous set up for the eastern US as Gulf low would bomb in the set up near the Mid Atlantic. Yikes!!!!


Hello Scott..I generally agree with most of your posts, but this time I have to say that the CFS will change dramatically for several reasons..1-The building snow pack over Siberia and Canada. 2-The large high in the Pacific shifting north into the Arctic. 3-Typhoon Nuri will likely boost enhance high pressure over the Western U.S. all the way up into Canada , lessening chances for a ridge developing in the countries mid section...If Nino does get a decent boost from the windbursts over the Tropic Pacific , it may increase the subtropical jet , which does affect the west coast ridge...It a wait and see.
hopefully it stays dry here in e cen fl. the ponds and water retentions areas are still full. little drizzle today but thats been it.
Quoting yoboi:





Let's not cherry pick and look at 8,000 yrs of data......
The Greenland ice core thing has been brought up for years and answered for years. Assuming you were interested in the real answers, you could read the article and responses at the link...but I know you won't.
Quoting 87. BaltimoreBrian:



$111 million as of Monday morning in NC. The 1984 Senate election between Jesse Helms and Jim Hunt set the record at the time for the most costly Senate election ever. The cost was $26.3 million. Seems quaint now. I was 14, and remember the campaign vividly.

Cody will you be an armchair psephologist tonight?

Have you voted yet Webberweather? I voted 3 weeks ago.


Yes I did vote and Kay Hagan made the decision very clear for me, it's nothing against her, but she was the only representative not to give me a nomination for the US Air Force Academy when I applied there last year (although in hindsight it's not a bad thing I didn't get accepted because government cuts forced them to remove their meteorology program entirely) so you can connect the dots on my decision...
Quoting 115. StormTrackerScott:

Look at the December forecast from the CFSv2 model. Very dangerous set up for the eastern US as Gulf low would bomb in the set up near the Mid Atlantic. Yikes!!!!


Quoting 121. TropicalAnalystwx13:


That 500mb height pattern will turn out to be blatantly wrong if we get the -NAO/-AO configuration I think we will. That pattern would support above-average temperatures across most of the lower 48; i think it'll turn out to be just the opposite.

Good, I want a cold Christmas. I am used to having a cold Christmas. It would be extremely odd and saddening to me if I had a warm Christmas.
Quoting 106. Envoirment:



The winter of 2009-2010 was a rather notable one for both cold temperatures and snowfall, so hopefully with a similar pattern occuring (-NAO and onset of an El Nino) the UK could see something similar, but maybe not as extreme. (It was the coldest winter in over 30 years).

Actually, the past 3/5 winters have been below average and rather extreme at times (2009-2010, 2010-2011 saw the coldest December on record (Average temperature of -1C beatng the previous record of 0.1C) and the 2012-2013 saw below average temperatures and basically extended into March which was the second coldest March on record).


Simply put, forecasting Europe is a formidable task for me, and many of the teleconnections such as ENSO for example aren't nearly as applicable across the pond as compared to N America, but the NAO & AO work out very nicely of course. For the US, just looking at the way November is fixing to go, this is certainly no 2009. November 2009 was a furnace, this year, not so much...
I'm prepared with whatever winter throws at us.I was a bit unprepared for last winter because I didn't think It was going to turn out the way it did.I'm waiting on CWG'S winter forecast.
Quoting 128. Webberweather53:



Simply put, forecasting Europe is a formidable task for me, and many of the teleconnections such as ENSO for example aren't nearly as applicable across the pond as compared to N America, but the NAO & AO work out very nicely of course. For the US, just looking at the way November is fixing to go, this is certainly no 2009. November 2009 was a furnace, this year, not so much...

This is why I try not to use November as a hint of what's to come for winter.
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Scott..I generally agree with most of your posts, but this time I have to say that the CVS will change dramatically for several reasons..1-The building snow pack over Siberia and Canada. 2-The large high in the Pacific shifting north into the Arctic. 3-Typhoon Nuri will likely boost enhance high pressure over the Western U.S. all the way up into Canada , lessening chances for a ridge developing in the countries mid section...If Nino does get a decent boost from the windbursts over the Tropic Pacific , it may increase the subtropical jet , which does affect the west coast ridge...It a wait and see.
I just have a hard time with models purporting to be able to forecast the weather 30 days in advance for the entire country for an entire month. As you say, there are so many variables in that mix that I'm sure haven't been factored in the NCEP monthly forecast. What finally happens with Nuri and how deep does the snow get in the high latitudes certainly haven't been because they haven't happened yet. Last year it was melting permafrost and floods, and they weren't forecast correctly either. We've had models now for a year forecasting an El Nino which still hasn't happened. I think the best we can say is that, as of today, the pattern favors cooler than average temperatures for the rest of the year, and then wait and see how the forecast breaks down once we're a week out.
Quoting 129. washingtonian115:

I'm prepared with whatever winter throws at us.I was a bit unprepared for last winter because I didn't think It was going to turn out the way it did.I'm waiting on CWG'S winter forecast.
Last winter was fun in Mid TN.. lots of snow days for us.. now we live by the beach with sand that often looks and sometimes feels (texture-wise, not temp!) and sounds (crunchy) like snow when you walk on it..
Quoting 129. washingtonian115:

I'm prepared with whatever winter throws at us.I was a bit unprepared for last winter because I didn't think It was going to turn out the way it did.I'm waiting on CWG'S winter forecast.
Greetings Wash..you shoulda tuned in to the hydrus forecast last winter...He got it purdy close..pfft
Quoting 120. Neapolitan:

The CPC suggests a further continuation of last winter's schizophrenic cold-in-the-east-and-hot-in-the-west paradigm:



Bad. And accordingly it looks like we'll in for another way too mild winter like the last one in Western Europe, at least so far...

Good night with the last shot of the airmasses of our European monster trough "Pia"-"Qendresa" (driven by a somehow strayed polar jet stream).








Yesterday some regions of southeastern France (Ardeche) were hit by rains up to 300mm (11,9 inches), and forecasts warn that around 400mm (15,7 inches) may fall in parts of northwestern Italy in the days to come. I've read in Italian media which are following developments closely, that already nearly 200mm (7,8 inches) were recorded today at some places, accompagnied by some flooding and disruption of traffic. Tomorrow many schools are closed, and authorities are on high alert in those (possibly affected) areas. Lots of snow to boot in higher regions of the Alps.

In some weird coincidence November 4th is the anniversary of the most catastrophic flooding which has hit and devastated Florence and other towns on Arno River (Tuscany) back in 1966. The flood was deadly for many and moreover destroyed a lot of ancient cultural heritage. Italian media are full of memories today. Here some pics in a youtube compilation.

Well, hopefully the rains won't add up to something like this!
Have an uplifting election night (hopefully everybody voted wisely)!
I put the comparative stats for early voters in NC on my blog in the most recent comment, with turnout and party registration for the 2010 and 2014 elections.
BTW landfalling Vance (on topic in the entry) in Mexico. Couldn't find any (English) news about the conditions down there though. All the best to the people affected!

CWG'S winter forecast will be out in 8 days.So far their dropping hints of stormy snd cool.
Quoting 131. sar2401:

I just have a hard time with models purporting to be able to forecast the weather 30 days in advance for the entire country for an entire month. As you say, there are so many variables in that mix that I'm sure haven't been factored in the NCEP monthly forecast. What finally happens with Nuri and how deep does the snow get in the high latitudes certainly haven't been because they haven't happened yet. Last year it was melting permafrost and floods, and they weren't forecast correctly either. We've had models now for a year forecasting an El Nino which still hasn't happened. I think the best we can say is that, as of today, the pattern favors cooler than average temperatures for the rest of the year, and then wait and see how the forecast breaks down once we're a week out.
Hey Sar..I am going to say something I have said many times here. in fact, believe you read some of it, but to be sure, I will type it again..The computer models are a tool and nothing more ( Jmo ) it is a Mets job to look at all the models ( if even necessary ) to make the best forecast possible. Not only are they held responsible for saving lives when it gets dangerous, but livelihoods, people count on forecasts for making decisions on how to farm and produce more with less to stay profitable, and keep food not only on our tables, but theirs also. Models out 3 to 5 days have improved greatly, after that, they lose there accuracy considerably. Each model seem to have its strong and weak points, but once one uses them and is familiar with each model, they can process the good from each one and disregard what they feel is off..When looking at long range models , I go hemispheric almost all the time, because while smaller scale systems will usually be way off the mark , large scale systems show up well enough to make your own assumptions of what the jet may do. or where the B/A high may be roughly centered, where a massive low will form. Large scale weather features are picked up by medium and long range models quite well ( Jmo ) timing on them is fuzzy to be sure, but for me, it helps to gather some details that I would have missed had I not checked them out.
45 feet (or higher) seas? Gee, that sounds like fun...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
134 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014


AKZ155-161-181-185-187-191-050045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-BRISTOL BAY-ALASKA PENINSULA-EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-WESTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND...
KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...PILOT POINT...COLD BAY...
SAND POINT...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI...ATKA AND ADAK...
SHEMYA AND AMCHITKA
134 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...HIGH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED AS TYPHOON REMNANTS CREATE A
MAJOR STORM IN THE BERING SEA LATE THIS WEEK...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM MAY CREATE HIGH SEAS AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS STARTING IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.WEATHER BRIEFING.

THIS WEATHER SITUATION IS DEVELOPING FROM REMNANTS OF SUPER
TYPHOON NURI.

TODAY...NURI IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE THURSDAY
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
LOW WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. CURRENT FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW DROPS FROM AROUND 970 MB LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 918 TO 922 MB LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD CREATE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS THE CURRENT RECORD
LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN THE BERING SEA IS 925 MB MEASURED AT
DUTCH HARBOR ON OCTOBER 25 1977.

.WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

A LARGE SWATH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
SHEMYA EASTWARD TO ADAK AND ATKA LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 45 FEET OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER...DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND RESULTING HIGH
WINDS. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ALL UNSHELTERED MARINE
VESSELS.

.PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. HIGH SEAS OF 22 TO 32 FEET ON A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FETCH ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ALL UNSHELTERED
MARINE VESSELS.
You see, weather in western Europe is really bad right now:

Four cabin crew treated for concussion after flight to New York hits severe turbulence while flying over Britain
Mail Online, Published: 17:31 GMT, 4 November 2014 | Updated: 20:49 GMT, 4 November 2014
Four Air France cabin crew members suffered concussion when a flight from Paris to New York hit severe turbulence shortly after take-off on Tuesday.
The airline confirmed flight AF006 from Charles de Gaulle Airport to JFK Airport ‘encountered strong turbulence’ at the beginning of the cruise phase.
It says the plane’s captain decided to abort the transatlantic journey and return to Paris, where the superjumbo jet landed safely just before 4.30pm local time.
...
Quoting 89. yoboi:

[snipped]

You know that plot is baloney, because we've told you numerous times before. In case you were not aware, that's pretty much the textbook definition of trolling.

I'd encourage everyone to flag away the post.

If you have any questions about Greenland temperatures, I'm sure many here would love to point you in the right direction.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea and extends northward across Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands, and continues over the Atlantic Ocean for several
hundred miles. Surface pressures are gradually falling across this
region and a low pressure system could form during the next day or
so. This system could briefly acquire subtropical characteristics
tomorrow or on Thursday while the low moves west-northwestward to
northwestward. After that time, development is not expected while
the disturbance moves north-northeastward and eventually merges with
another frontal system. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall and possible flooding can be expected across the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Dominican Republic
tonight and Wednesday. For additional information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please consult products issued by your national
meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
I think we should call Nuri "Superstorm Nuri" when he reaches the Bering. Whaddya say?
Quoting Neapolitan:
45 feet (or higher) seas? Gee, that sounds like fun...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
134 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014


AKZ155-161-181-185-187-191-050045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-BRISTOL BAY-ALASKA PENINSULA-EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-WESTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND...
KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...PILOT POINT...COLD BAY...
SAND POINT...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI...ATKA AND ADAK...
SHEMYA AND AMCHITKA
134 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...HIGH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED AS TYPHOON REMNANTS CREATE A
MAJOR STORM IN THE BERING SEA LATE THIS WEEK...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM MAY CREATE HIGH SEAS AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS STARTING IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.WEATHER BRIEFING.

THIS WEATHER SITUATION IS DEVELOPING FROM REMNANTS OF SUPER
TYPHOON NURI.

TODAY...NURI IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE THURSDAY
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
LOW WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. CURRENT FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW DROPS FROM AROUND 970 MB LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 918 TO 922 MB LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD CREATE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS THE CURRENT RECORD
LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN THE BERING SEA IS 925 MB MEASURED AT
DUTCH HARBOR ON OCTOBER 25 1977.

.WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

A LARGE SWATH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
SHEMYA EASTWARD TO ADAK AND ATKA LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 45 FEET OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER...DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND RESULTING HIGH
WINDS. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ALL UNSHELTERED MARINE
VESSELS.

.PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. HIGH SEAS OF 22 TO 32 FEET ON A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FETCH ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ALL UNSHELTERED
MARINE VESSELS.

Amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
CWG'S winter forecast will be out in 8 days.So far their dropping hints of stormy snd cool.

Excellent!!!!
Quoting 140. Neapolitan:

45 feet (or higher) seas? Gee, that sounds like fun...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
134 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014


AKZ155-161-181-185-187-191-050045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-BRISTOL BAY-ALASKA PENINSULA-EASTERN ALEUTIANS-
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-WESTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND...
KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...PILOT POINT...COLD BAY...
SAND POINT...UNALASKA...NIKOLSKI...ATKA AND ADAK...
SHEMYA AND AMCHITKA
134 PM AKST TUE NOV 4 2014

...HIGH WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED AS TYPHOON REMNANTS CREATE A
MAJOR STORM IN THE BERING SEA LATE THIS WEEK...

A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM MAY CREATE HIGH SEAS AND HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS STARTING IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.WEATHER BRIEFING.

THIS WEATHER SITUATION IS DEVELOPING FROM REMNANTS OF SUPER
TYPHOON NURI.

TODAY...NURI IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF TOKYO.
THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC LATE THURSDAY
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN BERING SEA. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
LOW WILL UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. CURRENT FORECAST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW DROPS FROM AROUND 970 MB LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 918 TO 922 MB LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WOULD CREATE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS THE CURRENT RECORD
LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN THE BERING SEA IS 925 MB MEASURED AT
DUTCH HARBOR ON OCTOBER 25 1977.

.WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

A LARGE SWATH OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
SHEMYA EASTWARD TO ADAK AND ATKA LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 45 FEET OR POSSIBLY
HIGHER...DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND RESULTING HIGH
WINDS. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ALL UNSHELTERED MARINE
VESSELS.

.PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. HIGH SEAS OF 22 TO 32 FEET ON A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FETCH ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR ALL UNSHELTERED
MARINE VESSELS.



Wow! "CURRENT FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW DROPS FROM AROUND 970 MB LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 918 TO 922 MB LATE FRIDAY NIGHT."
Quoting ScottLincoln:

You know that plot is baloney, because we've told you numerous times before. In case you were not aware, that's pretty much the textbook definition of trolling.

I'd encourage everyone to flag away the post.

If you have any questions about Greenland temperatures, I'm sure many here would love to point you in the right direction.

what did he post? its already been removed.
Quoting wxgeek723:


IMO the list this year was brutal. At least we had Arthur, which sounds like a quintessential hurricane name. But Gonzalo?!?!
Gonzalo is a very common name is Puerto Rico an the rest of the Spanish speaking Caribbean as well, áreas exposed to hurricanes ever y year.....
Quoting 120. Neapolitan:

The CPC suggests a further continuation of last winter's schizophrenic cold-in-the-east-and-hot-in-the-west paradigm:


I just looked at this and it got cold here...
With the power of Zeus, Posideon, and Hades(though I'm not sure what Hades has to do with this), I, 62901IL, give Typhoon Nuri the name "Superstorm Nuri" the moment it becomes extratropical.
They get larger each run.



Quoting barbamz:
You see, weather in western Europe is really bad right now:

Four cabin crew treated for concussion after flight to New York hits severe turbulence while flying over Britain
Mail Online, Published: 17:31 GMT, 4 November 2014 | Updated: 20:49 GMT, 4 November 2014
Four Air France cabin crew members suffered concussion when a flight from Paris to New York hit severe turbulence shortly after take-off on Tuesday.
The airline confirmed flight AF006 from Charles de Gaulle Airport to JFK Airport ‘encountered strong turbulence’ at the beginning of the cruise phase.
It says the plane’s captain decided to abort the transatlantic journey and return to Paris, where the superjumbo jet landed safely just before 4.30pm local time.
...
Dang! An Airbus A380 has just about every type of turbulence avoiding system available for commercial flight today, including Doppler radar capable of "seeing" clear turbulence, as well as the more normal bad weather turbulence. Whatever turbulence they hit must have been completely unexpected to have four flight attendants thrown around badly enough to end up with concussions. I'm glad the plane made it back OK and that the injured are apparently recovering. I think I'd postpone airline travel until that front clears the area!
Not to take away from the significance of Nuri....but has anyone noticed the AOI just north of the Caribbean islands materializing? This could be another quick-forming subtropical or tropical system that within the next three days strikes Bermuda as it curves out to sea.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Not to take away from the significance of Nuri....but has anyone noticed the AOI just north of the Caribbean islands materializing? This could be another quick-forming subtropical or tropical system that within the next three days strikes Bermuda as it curves out to sea.

post a satelitte pic.
Quoting barbamz:


Bad. And accordingly it looks like we'll in for another way too mild winter like the last one in Western Europe, at least so far...

Good night with the last shot of the airmasses of our European monster trough "Pia"-"Qendresa" (driven by a somehow strayed polar jet stream).








Yesterday some regions of southeastern France (Ardeche) were hit by rains up to 300mm (11,9 inches), and forecasts warn that around 400mm (15,7 inches) may fall in parts of northwestern Italy in the days to come. I've read in Italian media which are following developments closely, that already nearly 200mm (7,8 inches) were recorded today at some places, accompagnied by some flooding and disruption of traffic. Tomorrow many schools are closed, and authorities are on high alert in those (possibly affected) areas. Lots of snow to boot in higher regions of the Alps.

In some weird coincidence November 4th is the anniversary of the most catastrophic flooding which has hit and devastated Florence and other towns on Arno River (Tuscany) back in 1966. The flood was deadly for many and moreover destroyed a lot of ancient cultural heritage. Italian media are full of memories today. Here some pics in a youtube compilation.

Well, hopefully the rains won't add up to something like this!
Have an uplifting election night (hopefully everybody voted wisely)!
I remember the floods very well, not because I was there but because I wasn't I got married on November 12, 1966 and, courtesy of a very kind and, what seemed to me then, rich uncle, we had our honeymoon planned in Italy, including Florence. As you might imagine, we had to make a lot of last minute change in plans and ended up in Spain instead. We were really looking forward to seeing the museums in Florence and never got the chance after that.
Quoting 150. 62901IL:

With the power of Zeus, Posideon, and Hades(though I'm not sure what Hades has to do with this), I, 62901IL, give Typhoon Nuri the name "Superstorm Nuri" the moment it becomes extratropical.
you probably used most of that power rollin that huge fatty before posting this comment..:)
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Not to take away from the significance of Nuri....but has anyone noticed the AOI just north of the Caribbean islands materializing? This could be another quick-forming subtropical or tropical system that within the next three days strikes Bermuda as it curves out to sea.
Take a look at the NHC site. It's been there for two days now. It looks like this one will miss Bermuda but it's already been causing some flash floods in Puerto Rico. It's going to be pretty rare nowadays to spot something on the satellite that NHC hasn't already seen.
Quoting 155. 62901IL:


post a satelitte pic.



South end of an upper trough is cutting off into an upper vortex over Hispaniola....could support a surface subtropical low near 22.5N-67.5W in the next 24 hours....then maybe make a run to subtropical or tropical cyclone status northeast of the Bahamas by 48 hours.
Quoting 154. NCHurricane2009:

Not to take away from the significance of Nuri....but has anyone noticed the AOI just north of the Caribbean islands materializing? This could be another quick-forming subtropical or tropical system that within the next three days strikes Bermuda as it curves out to sea.
If the shear would lighten a bit. Water is warm.

Quoting 158. sar2401:

Take a look at the NHC site. It's been there for two days now. It looks like this one will miss Bermuda but it's already been causing some flash floods in Puerto Rico. It's going to be pretty rare nowadays to spot something on the satellite that NHC hasn't already seen.

Wasn't implying that the NHC missed it...just was bringing it up because with each satellite frame this disturbance is growing. As far as track...most of the models (link) I see brings the center of this system just west of Bermuda...but with a subtropical cyclones the weather can be spread out from the center. Therefore it looks like Bermuda will get messy weather over the next 3 days.

Quoting 160. hydrus:

If the shear would lighten a bit.

Shear should lighten because the base of the upper trough is cutting off over Hispaniola...with the rest of the upper trough scheduled to move away...therefore their will be a col of light upper winds (light shear) materializing between the cut off and remainder of the upper trough.
Quoting 154. NCHurricane2009:

Not to take away from the significance of Nuri....but has anyone noticed the AOI just north of the Caribbean islands materializing? This could be another quick-forming subtropical or tropical system that within the next three days strikes Bermuda as it curves out to sea.
NHC is talking STS as opposed to TS....

Evening all, BTW. I been loiking while woiking...
Nuri from NEXSAT..

Quoting 158. sar2401:

Take a look at the NHC site. It's been there for two days now. It looks like this one will miss Bermuda but it's already been causing some flash floods in Puerto Rico. It's going to be pretty rare nowadays to spot something on the satellite that NHC hasn't already seen.
HOWEVER.... we were talking about this since late last week when the first hints started to show on the models... so There....

:o)

I'm just hoping we see something organized enough to get another name out of it.... plus the well-organized STS can be quite attractive on sat image....
Quoting NCHurricane2009:



South end of an upper trough is cutting off into an upper vortex over Hispaniola....could support a surface subtropical low near 22.5N-67.5W in the next 24 hours....then maybe make a run to subtropical or tropical cyclone status northeast of the Bahamas by 48 hours.

Several people were killed by heavy rains in Haiti today.
Houses washed out, power lines down.
Sad thing. But thankfully, Haiti has had a nice break from major horrors this past year.
Poor Australia...They have 5 clouds to contend with.....be strong mates...:)

Quoting 164. BahaHurican:

HOWEVER.... we were talking about this since late last week when the first hints started to show on the models... so There....

:o)

I'm just hoping we see something organized enough to get another name out of it.... plus the well-organized STS can be quite attractive on sat image....


Yes. Some of us have been posting this area since last week, even before the cold front moved in. Almost all the early models mentioned possible tropical, subtropical, extra-tropical, mid-tropical, semi-tropical or non-tropical development.

Quoting eddye:
storm tracker scott do u think we can be cold as 2010


I don't put much faith in the GFS long-term progs (anything past 240 hours). Even from 144-240 hours there can be large errors, but at least at these time ranges you have other models to look at. The PNA has been solidly positive the past week or so (which favors troughs in E/SE CONUS). Assuming it stays that way for a few more weeks, there will probably be some continental air masses pushing into the SE U.S. and Florida. How strong depends on the amplitude of the troughs, but it would (if it verifies) send fronts through Florida with some regularity.
Quoting 166. hydrus:

Poor Australia...They have 5 clouds to contend with.....be strong mates...:)


Things are just getting ready to get in gear for them... give them a couple of months, as late Jan - March should be fairly hot for them...
Quoting 167. Grothar:



Yes. Some of us have been posting this area since last week, even before the cold front moved in. Almost all the early models mentioned possible tropical, subtropical, extra-tropical, mid-tropical, semi-tropical or non-tropical development.


It's not like there's anything besides politics to watch tonight ....
Quoting 167. Grothar:



Yes. Some of us have been posting this area since last week, even before the cold front moved in. Almost all the early models mentioned possible tropical, subtropical, extra-tropical, mid-tropical, semi-tropical or non-tropical development.


I pray we never get extra-subtropical-semi-mid-nontropical storm...It would be like that movie Tomorrow after Day..or after day tomorrow......whatever it was..
171. redux
can someone explain to me in some level of detail how Eurasian snow cover anomalies can affect NAO? How does the AO and NAO relate? do they support each other, are independent, or is there some level of connectedness?
See u later, guys.... Off work...
For severe weather geeks
Some interesting tweets coming out of the AMS Severe Local Storms conference this week. Lots on modeling, observational studies. When you have time you can read it here...
#sls14

Example

Quoting 171. redux:

can someone explain to me in some level of detail how Eurasian snow cover anomalies can affect NAO? How does the AO and NAO relate? do they support each other, are independent, or is there some level of connectedness?

Eurasian snowfall is well correlated to the AO. When snow cover across Siberia is above average, the air above the surface is cooled. Since the air is cool and dense, high pressure tends to form aloft. A strengthened Siberian high increases in the influx of energy from the troposphere to stratosphere, warming the latter; this is known as a sudden stratospheric warming event. When this occurs, the temperature difference between the high and mid-latitudes is decreased, subsequently weakening the polar vortex. A weaker polar vortex translates to above-average heights across the arctic region and a "wavier" jet stream that can allow significant intrusions of cold air into the United States.

Otherwise, the AO and NAO are two different indices that describe pressure difference between the mid- and high latitudes.
176. beell
Quoting 174. Barefootontherocks:

For severe weather geeks
Some interesting tweets coming out of the AMS Severe Local Storms conference this week. Lots on modeling, observational studies. When you have time you can read it here...
#sls14

Example




Quite a bit of stuff available here, bf. Posters, recorded presentations, manuscripts, etc.

Program: Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts
Quoting 39. 62901IL:


Definitely not Winter Storm Albus.
Maybe Winter Storm Bacon! (My PERSONAL list.)
178. eddye
orlando weather keeps trending warmer it should be cooler not warmer for this weekend lol
Quoting 171. redux:

can someone explain to me in some level of detail how Eurasian snow cover anomalies can affect NAO? How does the AO and NAO relate? do they support each other, are independent, or is there some level of connectedness?
Lol- that would be a long post...Start with this, and after reading that, at the bottom of the page click NAO..Link
change to the winter storm naming list.


Albus-character in Harry Potter
Brian-Common name, also one of Dumbledore's middle names
Casey-think Casey's general store
Danny-Hurricane of 1980 or so.
Elisha: common name
Frosty: frosty the snowman
Ganon: 'You dare bring light to my lair? YOU MUST DIE!!!!
Henriette: Hurricane Henriette 2013
Ivan: Hurricane Ivan 2004
Justin: common name
Kyle: Hurricane Kyle 2008
Larry: Ts Larry 2003
Mike: Mike Wasowski
Nate: Hurricane nate 2005/2011
Ollie: 'I'm gonna ollie over that rock'
Pete: Weird pete from KODT
Quincy: Quincy, Illinois
Rita: Hurricane Rita 2005
Stan: Hurricane Stan 2005
Tony: Ts Tony 2012
Unala: Ts Unala 2013
Vince: Hurricane Vince 2005
Waternoose: 'I'll kidnap a thousand children before I let this company die!'
Yipper: Dog's name
Zeus: Greek god of the sky
Quoting vongfong2014:
Maybe Winter Storm Bacon! (My PERSONAL list.)

Or maybe the name will be the guy who said This!
Quoting 166. hydrus:

Poor Australia...They have 5 clouds to contend with.....be strong mates...:)




Well, their tropical cyclone season has officially started now (started November 1st) and last season produced this:



Now that's a cloud that I certainly don't want to contend with!
Quoting 182. Envoirment:



Well, their tropical cyclone season has officially started now (started November 1st) and last season produced this:



Now that's a cloud that I certainly don't want to contend with!
Me either..The clouds with holes in the middle rip very big things into very little things
Rick Scott ahead for Governor vs. Charlie Crist. Problems in Broward County with the voting machines.
Quoting 167. Grothar:



Yes. Some of us have been posting this area since last week, even before the cold front moved in. Almost all the early models mentioned possible tropical, subtropical, extra-tropical, mid-tropical, semi-tropical or non-tropical development.


looks like someone threw a lava lamp and hit P.R. with it
186. eddye
lets go christ
With only 3 states needed, it looks likely (not certain by all means) that Republicans will take control of the Senate tonight.
Quoting 184. GeoffreyWPB:

Rick Scott ahead for Governor vs. Charlie Crist. Problems in Broward County with the voting machines.
what a surprise......cough...
Quoting 176. beell:



Quite a bit of stuff available here, bf. Posters, recorded presentations, manuscripts, etc.

Program: Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts

Wow. Thank you, bl.

Wait a minute. I'm in a time warp. The one going this week is in Madison, WI. I thought. Maybe they hold this conference more than once a year. :)
Quoting 188. TropicalAnalystwx13:

With only 3 states needed, it looks likely (not certain by all means) that Republicans will take control of the Senate tonight.


Yay, more gridlock.
I wonder if the Crabbing boats from the Deadest Catch will be stupid enough to venture out into the Bering Sea when extratropical Nuri arrives ...

Genesis and maintenance of a long-track EF5 tornado embedded within a supercell thunderstorm. There are some absolutely incredible tornado visualizations and perspectives in this.

Orf, Wilhelmson, Wicker, Lee and Finley (2014). Talk 3B.3 at the Severe Local Storms Conference, November 2, 2014, Madison.
194. eddye
orlando plz trend colder for this weekend
NVMD. I get it. February was the AMS annual meeting, so some on severe (local storms) there also.

Quoting 190. Barefootontherocks:

Wow. Thank you, bl.
Wait a minute. I'm in a time warp. The one going this week is in Madison, WI. I thought. Maybe they hold this conference more than once a year. :)
Quoting 188. TropicalAnalystwx13:

With only 3 states needed, it looks likely (not certain by all means) that Republicans will take control of the Senate tonight.


That could be good for the D's in 2016.
Quoting 192. Melagoo:

I wonder if the Crabbing boats from the Deadest Catch will be stupid enough to venture out into the Bering Sea when extratropical Nuri arrives ...


I wonder if the people on the crabbing boats believe that there are actually people thinking they are stupid enough to sail out into extra-tropical Nuri when it arrives.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disturbed weather is located over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea and extends northward across Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands, and continues over the Atlantic Ocean for several
hundred miles. Surface pressures are gradually falling across this
region and a low pressure system could form during the next day or
so. This system could briefly acquire subtropical characteristics
tomorrow or on Thursday while the low moves west-northwestward to
northwestward. After that time, development is not expected while
the disturbance moves north-northeastward and eventually merges with
another frontal system. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall and possible flooding can be expected across the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Dominican Republic
tonight and Wednesday. For additional information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please consult products issued by your national
meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



DOOM!!!
the GOP only needs two years to shoot themselves in the foot in the Senate..


VERY HIGH WIND SHEAR HERE!!
Patrick Gannon ‏@Pat_NCInsider 26m26 minutes ago

If numbers hold (and a few races very tight), D's would pick up four N.C. House seats...Need 6 to eliminate R's supermajority. #ncga #ncpol
Quoting 189. hydrus:

what a surprise......cough...


I live in Broward. Very odd way to vote. I walked in, they handed me 2 seperate ballots. I'd say each sheet was 10 by 24 inches. The questions were on both sides and very muddled. It was very easy to miss the marijuana question. It was on the back of the 2nd ballot hidden in the middle. You fill it out with a black pen and then walk over end insert it into the machine like a giant ATM card. You also had to check in with 4 different people to complete the process. I know about the voting shenanigans down here so I was prepared for anything. But the casual voter that just wants to get in and out ASAP could easily give up and not vote. BS if you ask me.
In Fla., Scott ahead of Crist by 1%. Shocker is Scott won Palm Beach County.
Quoting 205. GeoffreyWPB:

In Fla., Scott ahead of Crist by 1%. Shocker is Scott won Palm Beach County. Medical marijuana did not pass.
Woo hoo

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
900 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BEXAR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...UNIVERSAL CITY...SAN ANTONIO...
COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEW BRAUNFELS...CANYON LAKE DAM...
WEST CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST

* AT 852 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE
FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA. RADAR
ESTIMATES BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAVE FALLEN ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED. MULTIPLE
STREET CLOSURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN NORTHERN BEXAR
COUNTY DUE TO FLOODING. THIS SUPERSEDES THE PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD
WARNING FOR NORTHERN BEXAR AND WESTERN COMAL COUNTY.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TIMBERWOOD
PARK...FAIR OAKS RANCH...SPRING BRANCH...SMITHSON VALLEY...FISCHER
AND BULVERDE
41/73 today. Much milder evening. We just might hit 80 tomorrow, and likely on Thursday before cooling again.
Quoting 197. hydrus:

I wonder if the people on the crabbing boats believe that there are actually people thinking they are stupid enough to sail out into extra-tropical Nuri when it arrives.


They think they are invincible ... Nuri will make them think twice or three times
Good evening

It's been an incredibly rainy day and evening here on the island these last 12 hours or so. The roads have been flooded, the guts running over, ditches overflowing and an absolutely MISERABLE day for the people on the four cruise ships that came in today. I'd go outside and measure my "Home Depot" bucket but I refuse to get wet again. It's also the coolest I've ever felt it in the ten years I've lived here on this side of the island, having actually got down to 69.

Hope all is well with everyone

Lindy

Low here today was 65.0, High was 76.7
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 7:16 PM PST on November 04, 2014
Clear
72.9 °F / 22.7 °C
Clear
Heat Index: 73 °F / 23 °C
Humidity: 9%
Dew Point: 11 °F / -12 °C

Wind: 13.0 mph / 20.9 km/h / 5.8 m/s from the East
Wind Gust: 21.0 mph / 33.8 km/h / 8.7 m/s
Pressure: 30.07 in / 1018 hPa (Rising)
AP reporting Rick Scott has won as Governor of Florida.
the Democratic are lossing big time tonight
a href="http://www.wunderground.com/blog/KoritheMan/ comment.html?entrynum=601" target="_blank"Blog update on Vance if anyone's interested. It'll be my last one on that storm.
Quoting 209. Melagoo:



They think they are invincible ... Nuri will make them think twice or three times



We on the west coast are use to what YOU on the east coast consider extreme. Oregon's building codes are better than Miami Dade, I grew up in OR and have worked FL from Miami to Crestview.
Quoting 199. hurricanes2018:




DOOM!!!



need to be watch!
WE as scuba divers enter waves at 3 plus feet, if a wave breaks just above an ankle on the east coast your an extreme diver. Been to the east coast open water schools.
Rick Scott holds on in Florida.
TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014

The convective organization of Vance has continued to erode
significantly since the previous advisory due to strong
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 45 kt and
entrainment of drier air. As a result, the initial intensity has
been decreased to 45 kt based on a blend of various satellite
intensity estimates. Additional rapid weakening is expected until
landfall occurs in about 18 hours or so, and Vance could be a
tropical depression at that time. After landfall, Vance is expected
to quickly dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northwestern
Mexico.

The initial motion estimate is 025/12 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Vance is
expected to remain embedded within south-southwesterly flow on the
east side of deep-layer trough for the next 24 hours, which should
result in a north-northeastward motion until landfall occurs.

Moisture from Vance is spreading northeastward across Mexico and
into the south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains
over portions of these areas which should continue through Thursday
or Friday.
#220

Absolutely disgusting comment.
223. beell
Quoting 207. SouthCentralTx:

Woo hoo





(click image for discussion)

Woo hoo
Tropical Storm VANCE
7:00 PM PST Tue Nov 4
Location: 21.5°N 108.0°W
Moving: NNE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Quoting 223. beell:




(click image for discussion)

Woo hoo


Raining nonstop for over 2 hours now, only con outta this is trying to get my 2 dogs outside when they are scared of water, they are part lab too which should love the water... Lots of muddy paw prints coming up. :)
#219 Where are you on that graphic? :)

Cody here's the official NC election tally. Tillis is a lock to win.
Agreed Naga. I'm putting that one on my lists.
An invest seems warranted with the system north of Puerto Rico.
They did increase the probability to 20%; that seems like enough for invest status to me.
Quoting 193. Skyepony:

Genesis and maintenance of a long-track EF5 tornado embedded within a supercell thunderstorm. There are some absolutely incredible tornado visualizations and perspectives in this.

Orf, Wilhelmson, Wicker, Lee and Finley (2014). Talk 3B.3 at the Severe Local Storms Conference, November 2, 2014, Madison.


That is amazing.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Those results show, exactly what happened on this blog, global Warming is seen as political issue, right against the left and viceversa. Lots of fanatism , a few pay attention at the objective, scientific approach, that the good Doctor is trying to inject to the discussion, recognising the World Wide concern on this reality....
AP projects that Thom Thillis will win in North Carolina, giving Republicans control of the United States Senate.

What does that mean? A continuation of a whole lot of nothing for the next two years.
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
An invest seems warranted with the system north of Puerto Rico.


I agree, but they really can pick-and-choose sometimes with invests. I've seem them declare invests over land. Just depends on whether or not they want models ran on it.
With regards to politics (a subject I normally try to avoid expressing my views on, but I think it's relevant enough to discuss tonight), I really don't think much is going to change tonight. The Senate and House will continue to not get anything done and blame each other or the president and they'll continue to be the most inefficient Congress in US history. The real stuff, the stuff that hits closest to home is in the state elections, imo. State senators, etc., is the stuff I'm keeping a close eye on.
Here is a recent ASCAT of the blob north of Puerto Rico.

236. vis0
My names for winter storms; 
"Ice storm of YRYRmnthDATE", (example:; Icestorm of 20141120 or 2014Nov20 or Nov 20 2014)
"Snow storm of YRYRmnthDATE"(example:; Snowstorm of 20141120 or etc etc)

 if the storm reaches needed conditions for a blizzard then

BLIZZARD YRYRMNTHDATE.

If the winter storm is of the variety that happens only once every 100 yrs or more, add that fact + so much unusual lightning to the storm's date and if its TWch reporting such an event call it

Snowlapalozza YRRmnthDATE #1, #2, #3 .

(InOthrWrds, as it was)

As
i stated last year, lets keep our style of naming things as the Greeks
kept the stories of  ancient scriptures as to teach via parables, an indirect manner of learning and using feminine &
masculine terms to describe scientific actions. Its not disrespectful
its a way to pass on knowledge as to how the world needs opposing energies for it to exists, even "mother" nature categorizes
things as male & female.  

Since a warm core storm has to
develop through a much longer range of temperatures therefore takes
time (even if its a few more hours) it should deserve a nam, as names
in ancient science represents the warmth of nurturing / value of taking time for a more complete development of what ever is developing be it a storm or a child.

.
While "cold" core storms are quicker the only deserve a number to
reflect that their development is not as complex as numbers are less
complex than words, therefore  the date with the type of storm as a
prefix.  i had thought to maybe only name them "male" names but later thought nah.

In several ancient cultures warm time storms have names
or are told by mentioning the name of a family member whom live or died through that storm while cold time storms are known as the first, 2nd, 3rd of the year
they occurred.

Ah 'father" time sez get some sleep.
Event into space in USA on Wednesday, 05 November, 2014 at 04:31 (04:31 AM) UTC.
Description
Experts say a meteor could have caused a mysterious fireball the lit up the sky on Monday night, but Red Bull claims it was all just a flashy publicity stunt -- at least in Chicago. Red Bull said three skydivers launched flares as they jumped above North Avenue Beach in Chicago around 6:25 p.m. Monday. That's about the time calls started coming in about a possible meteor over Chicago. And Chicago wasn't the only place reporting possible meteors. NASA's Bill Cooke of the Meteoroid Environments Office in Huntsville, Ala., said there were multiple reports from around the country of at least two events - one around 6:20 p.m. EST over the eastern U.S., the other at 6:20 p.m. CST in the Midwest. Reports of possible meteor sightings came in from Illinois, Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina Tennessee, Indiana, Pennsylvania and Maryland, officials said. Police dash cam in Benwood, West Virginia, also captured an event. The timing appears to be coincidence, Paul Abell, lead scientist for Planetary Small Bodies at NASA's Johnson Space Center, said, noting that Earth is bombarded by about 100 tons of natural debris every single day. The fireball captured by a West Virginia police sergeant's dashcam was likely created by something roughly the size of a baseball, Abell believes, while another bright object captured streaking over Chicago was probably basketball-size. Objects that size across typically burn up completely as they reenter the atmosphere, posing no danger to people on the ground. "The rule of thumb is that for objects to make it to the ground and actually survive, they need to be at least a meter or bigger," Abell tells ABC. "For things that move high speed, a hyper-velocity impact where you're causing a lot of damage, an impact crater and a large nuclear-type explosion, you have to be on the order of about twenty meters." That's about the size of the Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded over Russia in February 2013, sending out a shockwave that shattered windows and injured roughly 1,500 people on the ground. Expect a lot of smaller shooting stars over the next few days, Abell says, thanks to the annual Taurids meteor shower. The Taurids are created as Earth passes through the dusty tail of a comet known as Encke. Red Bull said its skydivers were promoting an art event at Millennium Park
Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:
Good evening

It's been an incredibly rainy day and evening here on the island these last 12 hours or so. The roads have been flooded, the guts running over, ditches overflowing and an absolutely MISERABLE day for the people on the four cruise ships that came in today. I'd go outside and measure my "Home Depot" bucket but I refuse to get wet again. It's also the coolest I've ever felt it in the ten years I've lived here on this side of the island, having actually got down to 69.

Hope all is well with everyone

Lindy

But the rain will stop, everything will be green, all the cisterns will be full, and the Islands will look beautiful. Here on the mainland, things don't look quite so rosy. :-)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I agree, but they really can pick-and-choose sometimes with invests. I've seem them declare invests over land. Just depends on whether or not they want models ran on it.
I think one of the main reasons for declaring an invest is to get floaters up for a better look. It may be that the existing satellite views are sufficient for the purpose. The yellow X is there to let everyone on the blog know the NHC didn't miss the blob will updating Facebook. :-)
Quoting vis0:
My names for winter storms; 
"Ice storm of YRYRmnthDATE", (example:; Icestorm of 20141120 or 2014Nov20 or Nov 20 2014)
"Snow storm of YRYRmnthDATE"(example:; Snowstorm of 20141120 or etc etc)

 if the storm reaches needed conditions for a blizzard then

BLIZZARD YRYRMNTHDATE.

If the winter storm is of the variety that happens only once every 100 yrs or more, add that fact + so much unusual lightning to the storm's date and if its TWch reporting such an event call it

Snowlapalozza YRRmnthDATE #1, #2, #3 .

(InOthrWrds, as it was)
Vis, TWC will just name the winter storm "Roy" or something like that. Did you know that modern database software can with human readable dates? The software now understands 11052014 means today (well, it would be 11062014 CST by the time this is posted) and the database will still get properly sorted by MDY. Trying to follow the YYYYMMDD at NOAA sites can drive me batty sometimes. I first started doing databases back in the dBase II days using CPM, when you had to use machine readable dates. Thank goodness when Access finally got that right. dBase has been trying to catch up ever since. I'd comment on the rest of your post but you lost me by the second sentence. :-)
If Obama is smart he will work with the Republicans to get some things done in Washington. If he declares amnesty for all of the illegals and vetos every bill that comes across his desk......No Democrat in 2016 will have a chance to win the election for president.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Rick Scott holds on in Florida.
And Governor Moonbeam wins in California. My empathy meter for both states now reads "Fatigue"....
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

MM needed 60% got 58 it'll happen next time when turnout is higher.

Quite honestly I wish we could split this state in half at your northern border and be done with it.
Oh well. 4 more years.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wow.

It's not hard to pick out the counties with colleges on that map.
Quoting scott39:
If Obama is smart he will work with the Republicans to get some things done in Washington. If he declares amnesty for all of the illegals and vetos every bill that comes across his desk......No Democrat in 2016 will have a chance to win the election for president.
What the Republicans need to do is get off the social agenda as what defines their party. A gay atheist living in Louisiana **cough** should feel welcome in the Republican party if the party is working to manage the economy for the good of the people and the county. They also need to have some actual positions on Climate Change and what we should do about it other than "I'm not a scientist...".
Quoting 245. sar2401:
What the Republicans need to do is get off the social agenda as what defines their party. A gay atheist living in Louisiana **cough** should feel welcome in the Republican party if the party is working to manage the economy for the good of the people and the county. They also need to have some actual positions on Climate Change and what we should do about it other than "I'm not a scientist...".
The election tonight was not about a social agenda, it was a vote against Obamas lack of leadership.
TROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014

The convective organization of Vance has continued to erode
significantly since the previous advisory due to strong
south-southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 45 kt and
entrainment of drier air. As a result, the initial intensity has
been decreased to 45 kt based on a blend of various satellite
intensity estimates. Additional rapid weakening is expected until
landfall occurs in about 18 hours or so, and Vance could be a
tropical depression at that time. After landfall, Vance is expected
to quickly dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northwestern
Mexico.

The initial motion estimate is 025/12 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Vance is
expected to remain embedded within south-southwesterly flow on the
east side of deep-layer trough for the next 24 hours, which should
result in a north-northeastward motion until landfall occurs.

Moisture from Vance is spreading northeastward across Mexico and
into the south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains
over portions of these areas which should continue through Thursday
or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 21.5N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 23.1N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 25.3N 106.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
winds going down fast on vance!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Wasn't implying that the NHC missed it...just was bringing it up because with each satellite frame this disturbance is growing. As far as track...most of the models (link) I see brings the center of this system just west of Bermuda...but with a subtropical cyclones the weather can be spread out from the center. Therefore it looks like Bermuda will get messy weather over the next 3 days.
Sorry, didn't mean to imply you did. Although the area of disturbed weather is stretching out and doing a good job dumping rain, I'm not impressed with its potential otherwise. What may turning into a low is surrounded by dry air as well as shear. It's not looking like it wants to hang around in the warm water. Depends on what happens with that cutoff low that's feeding the whole mess but, even with pressures starting fall, it doesn't seem to want to form a center. I've seen the models but don't have much faith in them without a real low. Climatology would indicate that the further we get into November, the more storms want to head NE and pummel the UK and Europe. I think whatever this becomes misses Bermuda by a good bit, although they may get some rain out of it. We shall see. My accuracy at predictions is pretty typical for an amateur - not all that good. :-)
Quoting 245. sar2401:
What the Republicans need to do is get off the social agenda as what defines their party. A gay atheist living in Louisiana **cough** should feel welcome in the Republican party if the party is working to manage the economy for the good of the people and the county. They also need to have some actual positions on Climate Change and what we should do about it other than "I'm not a scientist...".


Popped in for a second and this is the first post I see and I couldn't agree more Sar!
Quoting scott39:
The election tonight was not about a social agenda, it was a vote against Obamas lack of leadership.
I think it was about both. Regardless, thinking Obama is a bad president is not going to do anything for Republicans in 2016. Republicans are going to have to come up with better candidates than they have in the past two presidential elections or they're going to get hammered again. They have two choices. They can mobilize voters around fiscal and tax issues by having candidates who can clearly articulate those positions and convince voters they will actually change things. The other is to tell bigger lies about all the free stuff they'll give away and then say "Just Kidding" on election night.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Popped in for a second and this is the first post I see and I couldn't agree more Sar!
Well, that's a shocker. :-)

I just think things like gay marriage and legalization of marijuana are two examples of things that, a generation from now, people will wonder why we were arguing about it. You can go back to the repeal of Prohibition and legalization of interracial marriage for two issues that got people in lather then that no one thinks is outside the norm now. What never chances is taxes, budgets, and debt. Those are the three issues that span generations and, if I were a Republican candidate, I'd be working on, not if someone goes to the right church on Sunday or if they have too many tattoos. Rand Paul actually seems to get this, so we'll see if he gains any traction in the party and with voters.
Quoting 254. sar2401:
Well, that's a shocker. :-)

I just think things like gay marriage and legalization of marijuana are two examples of things that, a generation from now, people will wonder why we were arguing about it. You can go back to the repeal of Prohibition and legalization of interracial marriage for two issues that got people in lather then that no one thinks is outside the norm now. What never chances is taxes, budgets, and debt. Those are the three issues that span generations and, if I were a Republican candidate, I'd be working on, not if someone goes to the right church on Sunday or if they have too many tattoos. Rand Paul actually seems to get this, so we'll see if he gains any traction in the party and with voters.


It's true because if republicans don't appeal to the young voters then they will NOT get the presidency in 2016 as well. This is why the GOP better come up with a strategey quick because its the young voters who will have a say on who gets elected in 2016.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It's true because if republicans don't appeal to the young voters then they will NOT get the presidency in 2016 as well. This is why the GOP better come up with a strategey quick because its the young voters who will have a say on who gets elected in 2016.

Unfortunately the only problem with that is they dont vote. GOP success is inversely proportional to voter turn-out. Has been since the days of Lee Atwater and the Nixon strategy.
257. vis0
 • CREDIT:: NOAA/NWS, presented via ERAU. 
 • TYPE:: NOT ERAU product, i passed the WV&fog through soft light spectrum filter. When reading the NIGHTTIME VIEWS, dark to black areas mean no to very low "clouds"(~fog), milky white means low yet rising "clouds",  dark cyan means high clouds with some precipitation , med-bright cyan means clouds with ability for heavy rains, bright cyan means very moisture rich clouds and rising, whites over cyan highest clouds.  
  • D&T:: on animation.


Keystone Pipeline , unrestricted fragging. 4 degreeesC here we come... from 11/2 Dr M.-
We're On Course For 4°C (7°F) of Warming By 2100
Our current business-as-usual emissions path (RCP 8.5) is more likely than not to cause 4°C (7°F) warming by 2100. That amount of warming is expected to result in "substantial species extinction, global and regional food insecurity, consequential constraints on common human activities, and limited potential for adaptation in some cases (high confidence). "

Quoting 258. lat25five:

Keystone Pipeline , unrestricted fragging. 4 degreeesC here we come... from 11/2 Dr M.-
We're On Course For 4°C (7°F) of Warming By 2100
Our current business-as-usual emissions path (RCP 8.5) is more likely than not to cause 4°C (7°F) warming by 2100. That amount of warming is expected to result in "substantial species extinction, global and regional food insecurity, consequential constraints on common human activities, and limited potential for adaptation in some cases (high confidence). "




Not to be annoying, but I think you meant fracking, fragging refers to the throwing fragmentation grenades. With that said, I sure as heck hope there's no fragging going on around the keystone :)
Quoting 241. scott39:

If Obama is smart he will work with the Republicans to get some things done in Washington. If he declares amnesty for all of the illegals and vetos every bill that comes across his desk......No Democrat in 2016 will have a chance to win the election for president.
Republican policy under Obama has been to veto everything while proposing nothing. I don't see much changing. Looking at the NC result map it clearly displays an urban rural division that the US will have to resolve no matter who wins the presidency.
Quoting 244. sar2401:

It's not hard to pick out the counties with colleges on that map.
Urban areas.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Not to be annoying, but I think you meant fracking, fragging refers to the throwing fragmentation grenades. With that said, I sure as heck hope there's no fragging going on around the keystone :)

quite right , its late...fragging would be bad too. lol.
Quoting 245. sar2401:

What the Republicans need to do is get off the social agenda as what defines their party. A gay atheist living in Louisiana **cough** should feel welcome in the Republican party if the party is working to manage the economy for the good of the people and the county. They also need to have some actual positions on Climate Change and what we should do about it other than "I'm not a scientist...".


I'm a registered Republican, and a Christian, but I don't feel too welcome in the current party base either. I've been called liberal, sheep, watered down conservative etc. for a number of things I stand on.

Not to say being a liberal makes you a sheep, or that I'm saying its negative by any means, I'm just saying I've been called that. And maybe it is because I would be considered liberal on some things. but who says we have to be "all in" on one side of the other? It seems that eventually can lead to extremism, and isn't really about trying to do what's best for us, rather its more of a tribalism mentality.

While its good to see that people still respond in a large movement on election day, even greater than what was expected, people are still too polarized. Sure, I disagree with much of the President's policies, but he's still the leader of this country, and for that I show him respect, and look for positive things that he has done. However, I see a lot of portrayal that almost treats him like he is literally part of the terrorism we are fighting in the middle east, its just ridiculous. That and treating minorities and anyone who lives a different lifestyle and has a different world view and happens to be part of the democratic party is treated almost like enemy combatants.

Also, I've also seen people on the other political prospective immediately have hateful prejudice towards me and others if they find that I'm a republican/conservative. They make sweeping generalizations, and assume that I don't like gays, atheists, etc.

My point is too many Americans are polarized and see the "other side" as weird and repulsive, and "bringing the country down".

The one thing that can bring the country down, is not people from different backrounds, perspectives, and personalities, but people who remain divided, and point the finger as the other side to blame for everything.
Anyways, I need to head to bed, and I know its election day, but we have to be careful not to get too off topic.

Quoting 262. lat25five:


quite right , its late...fragging would be bad too. lol.



haha it happens, I just thought it was funny to think about.
Quoting 219. TropicalAnalystwx13:




Maybe one day I'll live to see the majority of Republicans actually support science, but for now, I'm trying to do my part.

One thing that always surprises me, is the fact that most rural voters are Republican, but most don't believe in global warming and generally shun environmental science and protection. Sure, I understand why the very wealthy business people who are Republicans attack Climate Change science and other environmental science issues. But I don't really understand why more rural voters don't believe it. As someone who loves nature and the outdoors, it seems like it would come natural to be an avid supporter of environmental science education including global warming for rural people. It doesn't add up to me.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I'm a registered Republican, and a Christian, but I don't feel too welcome in the current party base either. I've been called liberal, sheep, watered down conservative etc. for a number of things I stand on.

Not to say being a liberal makes you a sheep, or that I'm saying its negative by any means, I'm just saying I've been called that. And maybe it is because I would be considered liberal on some things. but who says we have to be "all in" on one side of the other? It seems that eventually can lead to extremism, and isn't really about trying to do what's best for us, rather its more of a tribalism mentality.

While its good to see that people still respond in a large movement on election day, even greater than what was expected, people are still too polarized. Sure, I disagree with much of the President's policies, but he's still the leader of this country, and for that I show him respect, and look for positive things that he has done. However, I see a lot of portrayal that almost treats him like he is literally part of the terrorism we are fighting in the middle east, its just ridiculous. That and treating minorities and anyone who lives a different lifestyle and has a different world view and happens to be part of the democratic party is treated almost like enemy combatants.

Also, I've also seen people on the other political prospective immediately have hateful prejudice towards me and others if they find that I'm a republican/conservative. They make sweeping generalizations, and assume that I don't like gays, atheists, etc.

My point is too many Americans are polarized and see the "other side" as weird and repulsive, and "bringing the country down".

The one thing that can bring the country down, is not people from different backrounds, perspectives, and personalities, but people who remain divided, and point the finger as the other side to blame for everything.
Anyways, I need to head to bed, and I know its election day, but we have to be careful not to get too off topic.

Well said.
raised an Eisenhower Republican not sure what that makes me these days ....
good night see on the next blog.
be interested on your thoughts on the mid Nov. Artic High, now some models show 1042 with the off set L in Canada winds could be tremendous in GL area.
268. beell
Quoting 259. Jedkins01:



Not to be annoying, but I think you meant fracking, fragging refers to the throwing fragmentation grenades. With that said, I sure as heck hope there's no fragging going on around the keystone :)


Not to be even more annoying, the term "fragging" dates back to the Viet Nam era. An unpopular or over-zealous officer who continually ordered his men into situations where there was no short or long-term advantage-causing needless deaths and injuries would sometimes be killed by his own troops-usually with a grenade.

Song for the Dead

269. MahFL
Tough night for Democrats....
Quoting 260. BahaHurican:
proposing nothing. I don't see much changing. Looking at the NC result map it clearly displays an urban rural division that the US will have to resolve no matter
Republican policy under Obama has been to veto everything while who wins the presidency.


Not true. The house has been passing bills and sending them to the senate where Harry won't bring them to the floor for a vote.
Good Morning..sad day in NC..people went in the voting booths angry about the President instead of voting for what's best for their own state..Tillis is an extreme conversative much like the dreaded Jesse Helms..

anyhoo back to weather..

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 26m26 minutes ago

00z ECMWF takes the PNA through the roof in the 6-10 day period! Big western N American ridge http://models.americanwx.com

Positive PNA

The positive phase consists of above normal geopotential heights over the western U.S. and below normal geopotential heights over the eastern U.S. This correlates to ridging over the western U.S., and deep troughing over the east. The net result of the height field pattern in this phase is that it forces cold air residing in Canada to plunge southeastward, which results in below normal temperatures over the eastern U.S. and above normal temperatures over the western U.S.

Research at the SCO indicates that a positive PNA, especially during an El Niño year, produces an above average number of winter weather events in NC



Quoting 265. Jedkins01:



Maybe one day I'll live to see the majority of Republicans actually support science, but for now, I'm trying to do my part.

One thing that always surprises me, is the fact that most rural voters are Republican, but most don't believe in global warming and generally shun environmental science and protection. Sure, I understand why the very wealthy business people who are Republicans attack Climate Change science and other environmental science issues. But I don't really understand why more rural voters don't believe it. As someone who loves nature and the outdoors, it seems like it would come natural to be an avid supporter of environmental science education including global warming for rural people. It doesn't add up to me.
the answer why us rural folks vote republican is pretty simple. most of us rural people work. we have grown weary of work our butts off only to see an every increasing tax rate and a heavy handed epa. we watch our tax dollars being pumped into social programs that wind up benifitng folks in towns and cities. Show me some free housing developments in the country, massive road building and convention centers and green spaces in towns. also the influx of northerners whom left the north to afford a cheaper life here in nc, only to try a institute the very rules the made cities like Detroit and new York rot on the inside. most of the weather folks on here are democrat, but why? they promise you to work on climate, you vote for them, and then they forget about you. 5 years ago there was total democrat control. all it got you was ...well nothing on climate . enivormentals are nothing more than the third or fourth wheel on a democrat wagon , behind homosexual equality, immigration for illegals, the un , the unions, the children, and racism. you all bark loud, but they just take your money and smile. some please ask the environmentalist how the party of big labour is gonna help the environment ? the moneys gonna flow to the union bosses and jobs, not the trees
273. MahFL
Convection increasing as Vance approaches the coast.



Possible rainy weekend for Florida.
275. MahFL
Quoting 274. Sfloridacat5:

Possible rainy weekend for Florida.


JAX NWS mentions a broad low passing over the peninsular. Will it be tropical though ?
Quoting 250. hurricanes2018:


doom!!
From Miami NWS Disco...

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS WEEKEND COULD BECOME QUITE AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND PASS OVER
THE PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS THE FASTER EVOLUTION AND SHOWS
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ECMWF
WOULD HAVE THIS LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MUCH
DRIER CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
So did the opponents of the medical marijuana amendment (here in Fl) celebrate its not passing by drinking alcoholic beverages? ;-)
Quoting MahFL:


JAX NWS mentions a broad low passing over the peninsular. Will it be tropical though ?


I dought it due to the short time the system will be over the GOM and more importantly shear is quite high across the GOM.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disturbed weather extending northward from the
northeastern Caribbean Sea into the Atlantic Ocean for several
hundred miles is associated with a weak surface trough and an
upper-level low. A surface low pressure system could form in this
area later today or tomorrow, and it could briefly acquire
subtropical characteristics while moving northwestward. After
that time, development is not expected while the disturbance moves
north-northeastward and merges with a frontal zone. Regardless of
formation, locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding should
continue across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic through tonight. For additional information on
the heavy rainfall threat, please consult products issued by your
national meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
weed legalization took a major step forward in the us. if you want take money away from gangsters this is a good step..
282. MahFL
Quoting 278. tropicofcancer:

So did the opponents of the medical marijuana amendment (here in Fl) celebrate its not passing by drinking alcoholic beverages? ;-)



My wife did not want more drug dealers/stores in her neighborhood. Or potheads.
A strong Arctic Outbreak for early to mid November is on the way for the Mid West all the way down to Texas early next week. It wasn't until January that we started seeing an airmass like this roll in last Winter.



As a result the models are now showing the "Dry Season" taking a back seat across FL as wet times are ahead.

Quoting 282. MahFL:



My wife did not want more drug dealers/stores in her neighborhood. Or potheads.


Does she object to liquor stores in her neighborhood and alcohol sold at almost all supermarkets?
Quoting 282. MahFL:



My wife did not want drug dealers/stores in her neighborhood. Or potheads.
Good morning Mah. Pot gets a bad rap. 10,s of thousands of people ( if not more ) die from diseases caused by alcoholism and alcohol related vehicle crashes than with pot. I am against hard drugs , but I have never seen anyone hurt become violent on weed...they just eat a lot of chips and sleep a lot.
Quoting 279. Sfloridacat5:



I dought it due to the short time the system will be over the GOM and more importantly shear is quite high across the GOM.




The low is barclonic (frontal). Could be a few severe storms Saturday afternoon as lots of lift and wind shear will be in place across the FL Penisula.



I just don't understand why people can walk in their corner store and buy Everclear (100x stronger, more dangerous, and more addicting)?

Or walk into CVS and get a bottle of Oxycontins with an RX (100x stronger, more dangerous, and more addicting)?

Quoting 286. hydrus:

Good morning Mah. Pot gets a bad rap. 10,s of thousands of people ( if not more ) die from diseases caused by alcoholism and alcohol related vehicle crashes than with pot. I am against hard drugs , but I have never seen anyone hurt become violent on weed...they just eat a lot of chips and sleep a lot.


I agree. I have no idea why anyone cares whether other people smoke weed. Too many people have way too much time on their hands. I know very stable, successful people with families who smoke pot on a regular basis. They seem to be able to go on with their lives fine and interact normally with society at large. It's not something I am interested in, but honestly, who cares? Legalizing weed will only help to eliminate the underbelly of it.
290. MahFL
Quoting 285. tropicofcancer:



Does she object to liquor stores in her neighborhood and alcohol sold at almost all supermarkets?

No.
Quoting 286. hydrus:

Good morning Mah. Pot gets a bad rap. 10,s of thousands of people ( if not more ) die from diseases caused by alcoholism and alcohol related vehicle crashes than with pot. I am against hard drugs , but I have never seen anyone hurt become violent on weed...they just eat a lot of chips and sleep a lot.


Medical marijuana passed in many states but not FL. I voted for it as I know people with MS that could really benefit from it as lots of these medications these people take have severe side effects to them. I also can't bear another few years of Rick Scott as this guy is ruining our public school system here in FL and I can tell many teachers want to leave their jobs as the mandates he wants to pass in the schools is just too much. I know many teachers that work from 7am to almost 8 in the evening and gets paid like crap.
they are already there mah. potheads dont act drunkish. hope no one in our families get sick and cant eat. if so. for now theyll be heading to district of columbia to get their candy.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
A strong Arctic Outbreak for early to mid November is on the way for the Mid West all the way down to Texas early next week. It wasn't until January that we started seeing an airmass like this roll in last Winter.



As a result the models are now showing the "Dry Season" taking a back seat across FL as wet times are ahead.



16 day model, never accurate. They call it the dry season for a reason lol. Sure we are bound to get some rain eventually but nothing out of the ordinary. As for the next 7 days, nothing more than a half inch for FL, and none expected near me in the panhandle. The dry season continues.



Quoting 293. WxGuy2014:



16 day model, never accurate. They call it the dry season for a reason lol. Sure we are bound to get some rain eventually but nothing out of the ordinary. As for the next 7 days, nothing more than a half inch for FL, and none expected near me in the panhandle. The dry season continues.






Really?
295. MahFL
"After alcohol, THC (delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol), the active ingredient in marijuana, is the substance most commonly found in the blood of impaired drivers, fatally injured drivers, and motor vehicle crash victims."

I would think keeping traffic accidents as low as possible would be a good reason for not legalizing weed. Upto 14 % of victims have weed in their bloodstream.

Personally I am on the fence regarding legalization.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


I agree. I have no idea why anyone cares whether other people smoke weed. Too many people have way too much time on their hands. I know very stable, successful people with families who smoke pot on a regular basis. They seem to be able to go on with their lives fine and interact normally with society at large. It's not something I am interested in, but honestly, who cares? Legalizing weed will only help to eliminate the underbelly of it.


If people only knew how much worse alcohol is on your motor control.

Alcohol negatively affects your balance and motor control significantly more than marijuana. Anyone that surfs, snowboards, etc knows that for a fact.




Quoting 270. PensacolaDoug:



Not true. The house has been passing bills and sending them to the senate where Harry won't bring them to the floor for a vote.


The thing is, the GOP won't be able to blame its utter lack of output--the Republican-led US House has been the least productive in the nation's history--on the Senate come January. It'll be interesting to see who/what they point the finger at then...
Quoting 290. MahFL:


No.


I think your answer just made my point! Thank you, and now back to weather, I didn't mean to stir ......the pot?



299. MahFL
One good thing this am is a lot of steady rain in parts of Texas, should help the drought situation there some.
Quoting 282. MahFL:



My wife did not want more drug dealers/stores in her neighborhood. Or potheads.


Ah yes, keep it illegal on the black market. Out of sight, out of mind. People don't start smoking pot because it's legal.
Quoting 297. Neapolitan:



The thing is, the GOP won't be able to blame its utter lack of output--the Republican-led US House has been the least productive in the nation's history--on the Senate come January. It'll be interesting to see who/what they point the finger at then...


Obama is no better. I think both sides have issues. Can't blame everything on the Republicans.
302. MahFL
Quoting 296. Sfloridacat5:



If people only knew how much worse alcohol is on your motor control.

Alcohol negatively affects your balance and motor control significantly more than marijuana. ..







Yes but marijuana can still affect your driving, it does not matter by how much if you end up dead or killed by a marijuana user. We all know alcohol is a much bigger problem.
303. MahFL
Quoting 301. StormTrackerScott:



Obama is no better. I think both sides have issues. Can't blame everything on the Republicans.


President Obama does not write legislative bills.
Quoting 291. StormTrackerScott:



Medical marijuana passed in many states but not FL. I voted for it as I know people with MS that could really benefit from it as lots of these medications these people take have severe side effects to them. I also can't bear another few years of Rick Scott as this guy is ruining our public school system here in FL and I can tell many teachers want to leave their jobs as the mandates he wants to pass in the schools is just too much. I know many teachers that work from 7am to almost 8 in the evening and gets paid like crap.
Good post. Politics is not my bag , and I have seen to much corruption in the process. Public school teachers are one of the most underpaid people in our country, I cannot speak for other countries for I have no idea, but I would bet many other places outside the U.S. pay there teachers well.
I think its safe to say El-Nino is here now. Going to be an interesting Winter with blocking over Greenland and an active southern branch as a result of El-Nino.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 05 Nov 2014
Average for last 30 days -9.8
Average for last 90 days -8.0
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -15.1

mah all that means is the victim used it with in the last month.
Quoting 304. hydrus:

Good post. Politics is not my bag , and I have seen to much corruption in the process. Public school teachers are one of the most underpaid people in our country, I cannot speak for other countries for I have no idea, but I would bet many other places outside the U.S. pay there teachers well.


Yeah, Rick Scott in FL now is basing a teachers raise on FCAT scores which is unfair as some schools are in predominantly poor areas and many of these kids outside of school don't have to tools to effectively learn. So if you are in an area with kids are have a higher based income those teachers will get higher raises as opposed to schools in urban areas.
Quoting MahFL:


Yes but marijuana can still affect your driving, it does not matter by how much if you end up dead or killed by a marijuana user. We all know alcohol is a much bigger problem.


So can many drugs (prescriptions such as painkillers, anti-depressants, etc, etc).

I would also much rather have someone drive me home that had some marijuana than someone that's been drinking alcohol.

Alcohol (is legal) and is much worse the marijuana.
Marijuana can help people and it's not legal.
Alcohol which can't help people and is much more dangerous is legal.
That's the point.
Quoting 305. StormTrackerScott:

I think its safe to say El-Nino is here now. Going to be an interesting Winter with blocking over Greenland and an active southern branch as a result of El-Nino.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 05 Nov 2014
Average for last 30 days -9.8
Average for last 90 days -8.0
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -15.1


I am concerned about this.The Mid South is already under the gun for wet snow and ice storms. Throw in a Modoki like Nino and there may be seriuos trouble for many folks...We has 5 inches of ice here possibly 6 in certain locations back in 1994. The damage is still very evident, and likely will be present for decades ..I mention in passing that 1994 was a Nino year.


7 day for the Tampa area. Hopefully we get some rain on Sunday.
Quoting 307. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah, Rick Scott in FL now is basing a teachers raise on FCAT scores which is unfair as some schools are in predominantly poor areas and many of these kids outside of school don't have to tools to effectively learn. So if you are in an area with kids are have a higher based income those teachers will get higher raises as opposed to schools in urban areas.


Scott, that is not correct. My wife is a teacher so I know exactly how this works. The FCAT score is only a factor in how teachers' raises are determined. A lot of it has to do with how their personal evaluation goes as well.
Quoting 307. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah, Rick Scott in FL now is basing a teachers raise on FCAT scores which is unfair as some schools are in predominantly poor areas and many of these kids outside of school don't have to tools to effectively learn. So if you are in an area with kids are have a higher based income those teachers will get higher raises as opposed to schools in urban areas.


If you couple that with voucher programs what you end up getting is defacto resegregation of the public school system.
Quoting Neapolitan:


The thing is, the GOP won't be able to blame its utter lack of output--the Republican-led US House has been the least productive in the nation's history--on the Senate come January. It'll be interesting to see who/what they point the finger at then...
Yea the dems have been real productive 10 trillion in new debt, don't even pass a budget. "democrats your FIRED"
Quoting 310. tampabaymatt:



7 day for the Tampa area. Hopefully we get some rain on Sunday.


That forecast is way wrong as Saturday will have likely rain chances with thunderstorms as well lasting thru mid day Sunday. Expect that forecast by Klystron to update this afternoon.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah, Rick Scott in FL now is basing a teachers raise on FCAT scores which is unfair as some schools are in predominantly poor areas and many of these kids outside of school don't have to tools to effectively learn. So if you are in an area with kids are have a higher based income those teachers will get higher raises as opposed to schools in urban areas.


I'm living it.
They want to pay teachers with 20 years experience the same as teachers with no experience.
It about saving money and they know it. It has nothing to do with what's best for kids.
Quoting 307. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah, Rick Scott in FL now is basing a teachers raise on FCAT scores which is unfair as some schools are in predominantly poor areas and many of these kids outside of school don't have to tools to effectively learn. So if you are in an area with kids are have a higher based income those teachers will get higher raises as opposed to schools in urban areas.
I am not R or D...I do not like R. Scotts policies or his way of government, but he has done a few things I believe were correct, should have been implemented decades ago, and not just in Florida.
Quoting 311. tampabaymatt:



Scott, that is not correct. My wife is a teacher so I know exactly how this works. The FCAT score is only a factor in how teachers' raises are determined. A lot of it has to do with how their personal evaluation goes as well.


My wife is a teacher as well and Rick Scott is basing the percent for their raise on FCAT scores and to some degree their evaluations. Also my father in law is a principal and has been for 41 years here in Seminole County and he said this is the worst its ever been.
My man, Frankie McDonald with his Texas forecast, live from Nova Scotia. Take it away Frank....

Link
Quoting 314. StormTrackerScott:



That forecast is way wrong as Saturday will have likely rain chances with thunderstorms as well lasting thru mid day Sunday. Expect that forecast by Klystron to update this afternoon.


I think I'll trust my local mets over you, they usually update this around 4:00 PM each day so we'll see. I hope the chance of rain goes up as we really need it.
Quoting 305. StormTrackerScott:

I think its safe to say El-Nino is here now. Going to be an interesting Winter with blocking over Greenland and an active southern branch as a result of El-Nino.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 05 Nov 2014
Average for last 30 days -9.8
Average for last 90 days -8.0
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -15.1




I'll buy the active southern stream. This tends to persist once it sets up and is a classic Nino signal. Blocking over Greenland is not predictable over a season timescale so I'm skeptical but if it sets up for awhile during the winter then it will be like 2009-10 or 1957-58.

Feb 2010 was the only time that my flippant forecast of less than a meter of snow in a DC metro snowstorm, was wrong.
i always have believed mrs clinton would of made a better president. president obama was elected because of our wet dreams. wonder who is next?
Quoting 323. islander101010:

i always have believed mrs clinton would of made a better president. president obama was elected because of our wet dreams. wonder who is next?

White whiskey sipping old conservative guy. Place ur bets.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


My wife is a teacher as well and Rick Scott is basing the percent for their raise on FCAT scores and to some degree their evaluations. Also my father in law is a principal and has been for 41 years here in Seminole County and he said this is the worst its ever been.


In my county the word is that this will be the last year for the FCAT. The FCAT is going to be replaced with a series of Common Core exams.

But it will work the same way. A large percentage of your pay will be based on these tests.
Teachers working with challenging students will be at a huge disadvantage.

Also, teachers are quickly learning to just teach to the test. It's very easy to do and encouraged (behind closed doors).
@321. StormTrackerScott:
"Well if you believe there will be no rain on Saturday then I will have a fresh batch of crow for you again this weekend as I know many feasted well last weekend"

To be fair , you were also calling for a repeat of last weekend's weather just a few days ago.






With the Steelers having a great year I am going to take back a few years. Enjoy!

Link
329. MahFL
Quoting 308. Sfloridacat5:



Alcohol which can't help people and is much more dangerous is legal.



Actually a moderate intake of alcohol has been proven to be beneficial, especially for heart health. But we are talking 1 or 2 units per day, which is like a beer.
Quoting 317. StormTrackerScott:



My wife is a teacher as well and Rick Scott is basing the percent for their raise on FCAT scores and to some degree their evaluations. Also my father in law is a principal and has been for 41 years here in Seminole County and he said this is the worst its ever been.
Rick should take a pay cut.
332. MahFL
I wonder if the blob will make it to the GOM ?

Quoting 326. capeflorida:

@321. StormTrackerScott:
"Well if you believe there will be no rain on Saturday then I will have a fresh batch of crow for you again this weekend as I know many feasted well last weekend"

To be fair , you were also calling for a repeat of last weekend's weather just a few days ago.









Yeah 4 days ago but that changes Sunday when the GFS among other models stalled the front across FL in response to Vance in the E-Pac coming across Mexico. So as a result a low is forecast to form in the Gulf and come across FL this weekend "non tropical"
Quoting 332. MahFL:

I wonder if the blob will make it to the GOM ?




That's what the GFS forms in the Gulf again though "non tropical". Vance's energy forms a wave on the tail end of the front in the Western Gulf and then slides it east then NE across N or C FL.
Quoting 289. tampabaymatt:



I agree. I have no idea why anyone cares whether other people smoke weed. Too many people have way too much time on their hands. I know very stable, successful people with families who smoke pot on a regular basis. They seem to be able to go on with their lives fine and interact normally with society at large. It's not something I am interested in, but honestly, who cares? Legalizing weed will only help to eliminate the underbelly of it.
Yep..They are mellow and "Usually" very intelligent..Many I went to college with indulged the sacrament and had some of the best grades in the class...no joke..
Quoting 255. StormTrackerScott:



It's true because if republicans don't appeal to the young voters then they will NOT get the presidency in 2016 as well. This is why the GOP better come up with a strategey quick because its the young voters who will have a say on who gets elected in 2016.


They won't have to. After defunding research organizations, slashing student loans, and wrecking school curriculum with their anti-science/anti-intellectual idiocy it won't be too long before the population doesn't know any better.

I'm also looking forward to republicans cutting even more funding to the NWS/NOAA, and then blaming these organizations when they can't do their jobs (they're already underfunded and understaffed). But that fits in with their general strategy. Cut funding to things they don't like, blame them when they can't do their jobs, then doll it out to those willing to give them the most money...er...free speech. A privatized weather service. What could possibly go wrong?

This also likely ensures the continuance of the current republican dominated science and technology committee, a.k.a "Idiots on Parade". Yes, the very same clowns who've publicly demonstrated that they lack the basic science comprehension of fourth graders will continue to make decisions on policies regarding science and technology. The only saving grace here is that not many people watch congressional hearings so they don't feel embarrassed that these people represent us.

And of course, this will likely further delay taking any meaningful action towards dealing with climate destabilization. But who cares about real issues when "OMG! Da gayzz gettin' murried! Not in my 'murica!".

All that said, there are some memorable highlights about this election. I think my favorite was Joni Ernst, who won her Iowa senate seat by expounding on her experience of castrating pigs and shooting guns at things she doesn't like. Well played, Iowa.
Quoting MahFL:


Actually a moderate intake of alcohol has been proven to be beneficial, especially for heart health. But we are talking 1 or 2 units per day, which is like a beer.


The point is alcohol is more addicting, more dangerous, and less beneficial than marijuana.

The same can be said for many prescription medications.
Huh?? I thought: 1 unit = 6 Pack.

But I feel great!!!!!!!! Wooohooooo!

Quoting 329. MahFL:



Actually a moderate intake of alcohol has been proven to be beneficial, especially for heart health. But we are talking 1 or 2 units per day, which is like a beer.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB04-2014
14:30 PM IST November 5 2014
==================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery & observations indicate that a depression has formed over central & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal and lays centered near 13.0N 87.5E, about 580 km west northwest of Port Blair, 690 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 810 km south southeast of Paradip.

It would move northwestwards initially and intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours

According to satellite imagery, intensity is T1.5. Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over Bay of Bengal between 10.0N to 17.5N and 82.5E to 88.5E. The convection increased in past 24 hours with increase in organization. A buoy located near 14.0N 87.0E reported mean sea level pressure of 1001.5 hPa and surface wind of 0100/21 knots

The sea surface temperature around the region of depression area is 29-30C. However it is less over northern Andra Pradesh coast (26-28C) and near Odisha and West Bengal coast (27-28C) . The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2 around the system. However it is less than 50 kj/cm2 over parts of west central bay and over northern Bay of Bengal. The vertical wind shear shows no significant change during past 24 hrs and is about 10-20 knots (moderate) around the system center. It is higher towards the north.

The low level relative vorticity and convergence have increased during past 24 hours. There is favorable poleward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the east northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 hPa level runs along 15.0N.
Well..uh top of the morning (sarcasm) HA!.Well off to start my day...Some clouds with sun building in.
Quoting 329. MahFL:



Actually a moderate intake of alcohol has been proven to be beneficial, especially for heart health. But we are talking 1 or 2 units per day, which is like a beer.


And that's different from marijuana how?

The problem isn't the substance. It's the abuse. A beer or two every now and then is no better or worse than a joint every now and then. However, if your downing a 12 pack a day or puffing on bongs for hours, that's going to cause some serious issues at some point.

Pot should be treated like alcohol/cigarettes and subjected to the same rules and regulations. There are numerous benefits to doing so.
342. MahFL
Quoting 341. Xyrus2000:



..There are numerous benefits to doing so...


Many problems too.
Morn'n everyone. I see the whinning has begun...
Quoting 323. islander101010:

i always have believed mrs clinton would of made a better president. president obama was elected because of our wet dreams. wonder who is next?

Hopefully not another Clinton and hopefully not another Bush. Hopefully someone who is willing to work with both democrats and republicans for what's right for the people. Hopefully someone who understands, and recognizes the potential impacts of, climate change. Hopefully someone who can help gays win equal rights. And on and on...
Quoting 338. HaoleboySurfEC:

Huh?? I thought: 1 unit = 6 Pack.

But I feel great!!!!!!!! Wooohooooo!




As in other science investigations it's crucial to get your units right.
Well, many of those "not in my 'murica" types fought in the military and do the necessary hard and dirty work, so they get to be heard loud and clear as well. They earned it. They'd also most likely be the ones to give you the shirt off their back when all your hoity toity friends are nowhere to be found.

Are we really this divided? Sad. That's really what the politicians want you know. It's easy to manipulate a divided populace.

Quoting 336. Xyrus2000:



They won't have to. After defunding research organizations, slashing student loans, and wrecking school curriculum with their anti-science/anti-intellectual idiocy it won't be too long before the population doesn't know any better.

I'm also looking forward to republicans cutting even more funding to the NWS/NOAA, and then blaming these organizations when they can't do their jobs (they're already underfunded and understaffed). But that fits in with their general strategy. Cut funding to things they don't like, blame them when they can't do their jobs, then doll it out to those willing to give them the most money...er...free speech. A privatized weather service. What could possibly go wrong?

This also likely ensures the continuance of the current republican dominated science and technology committee, a.k.a "Idiots on Parade". Yes, the very same clowns who've publicly demonstrated that they lack the basic science comprehension of fourth graders will continue to make decisions on policies regarding science and technology. The only saving grace here is that not many people watch congressional hearings so they don't feel embarrassed that these people represent us.

And of course, this will likely further delay taking any meaningful action towards dealing with climate destabilization. But who cares about real issues when "OMG! Da gayzz gettin' murried! Not in my 'murica!".

All that said, there are some memorable highlights about this election. I think my favorite was Joni Ernst, who won her Iowa senate seat by expounding on her experience of castrating pigs and shooting guns at things she doesn't like. Well played, Iowa.
Quoting 340. washingtonian115:

Well..uh top of the morning (sarcasm) HA!.Well off to start my day...Some clouds with sun building in.


No freeze yet for me. But with short days and mostly cool temps, the warm season garden is done
and I just picked it out Sunday Nov 2 in a cold wind, anticipating freeze. Cool season stuff is doing great but temps below the mid 20s will start to hit them too in a few weeks.
Despite the cool August, the August 1 planted sweetcorn actually made a crop of good ears for the November 2 dinner table.

Thank goodness I'm in management. lol

Quoting 346. georgevandenberghe:



As in other science investigations it's crucial to get your units right.

I'm just hoping for someone that acts like an adult...

Quoting 345. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hopefully not another Clinton and hopefully not another Bush. Hopefully someone who is willing to work with both democrats and republicans for what's right for the people. Hopefully someone who understands, and recognizes the potential impacts of, climate change. Hopefully someone who can help gays win equal rights. And on and on...
351. redux
I don't understand the logic that bad opinions should be given extra weight because they fought in a war.

those wars were idiotic, and the demographics of the country that doesn't need adult supervision in constructing views could see that a mile away.

this was popular on message boards in 2002.

http://unattributed.net/assets/images/db_images/d b_liberal1.jpg

edit: bad at internet

edit2: my point was the people in this country who are easily persuaded got us into the retarded Iraq war. it was popular to be in favor of war in 2002-2003. completely idiotic though. ebola reminded of Iraq war, where people who had no knowledge of the countries involved, having never traveled, never learned about the history, demographics, culture of those nations... were now experts on what to do.
Quoting 350. HaoleboySurfEC:

I'm just hoping for someone that acts like an adult...


They would all have to act like adults because of the system. Its like a bunch of kids on each side complaining that one team may get more candy than the other, or in this case...Money...I am tired of having to cater to what amounts to calming down angry 5 year olds.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


And that's different from marijuana how?

The problem isn't the substance. It's the abuse. A beer or two every now and then is no better or worse than a joint every now and then. However, if your downing a 12 pack a day or puffing on bongs for hours, that's going to cause some serious issues at some point.

Pot should be treated like alcohol/cigarettes and subjected to the same rules and regulations. There are numerous benefits to doing so.
Correct. I was part of the "War on Drugs" for 27 years. I don't think we won. Regulate and tax it, just like we already do with other intoxicating substances. There's already a tax on weed. Right now, it's being paid to Mexican drug cartels and part of the cost is the lives of five year old kids getting caught in the crossfire when there's another drive-by. I'd like to see the tax being paid to things like schools and healthcare instead.
Quoting redux:
I don't understand the logic that bad opinions should be given extra weight because they fought in a war.

those wars were idiotic, and the demographics of the country that doesn't need adult supervision in constructing views could see that a mile away.

this was popular on message boards in 2002.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&a mp;esrc=s&so urce=images&cd=&ved=&url=http%3A%2F%2F unattributed .net%2Fassets%2Fimages%2Fdb_images%2Fdb_liberal1.j pg&ei=qDpaVN_AC4KryASxoIK4Dw&bvm=bv.786774 74,d.aWw &psig=AFQjCNEo7Ugs6ztmh3DfFMpopw5a-Gyktw&u st=14152 85800946755
I don't know what your point was but a gigantic URL like that never works. Try using preview next time and see if a link or image works before you post.
Quoting 345. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hopefully not another Clinton and hopefully not another Bush. Hopefully someone who is willing to work with both democrats and republicans for what's right for the people. Hopefully someone who understands, and recognizes the potential impacts of, climate change. Hopefully someone who can help gays win equal rights. And on and on...


Yeah because Christie or Romney would be more ideal than Clinton and recognize gay rights....right..

Hilary in 2016..
Quoting 307. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah, Rick Scott in FL now is basing a teachers raise on FCAT scores which is unfair as some schools are in predominantly poor areas and many of these kids outside of school don't have to tools to effectively learn. So if you are in an area with kids are have a higher based income those teachers will get higher raises as opposed to schools in urban areas.
We did not have FCAT back I went to school. I take it they still have the SAT.?
Nice swath of 2 inches or more of rain in the last 12hrs..
Quoting 355. ncstorm:



Yeah because Christie or Romney would be more ideal than Clinton and recognize gay rights....right..

Hilary in 2016..

Hmm...I don't remember mentioning Christie nor Romney in my post.
Quoting 355. ncstorm:


Yeah because Christie or Romney would be more ideal than Clinton and recognize gay rights....right..

Hilary in 2016..
House Republicans last night increased its majority to a record high since WW2.It will take many cycles for Democrats to take back the house. Hilary is too far on the left to work with a Republican Congress. We need a Democrat or Republican president who will govern from the center.
Quoting 313. absurfer:

Yea the dems have been real productive 10 trillion in new debt, don't even pass a budget.



Got any numbers, any facts? I thought not.



Here's some more.
Quoting 341. Xyrus2000:



And that's different from marijuana how?

The problem isn't the substance. It's the abuse. A beer or two every now and then is no better or worse than a joint every now and then. However, if your downing a 12 pack a day or puffing on bongs for hours, that's going to cause some serious issues at some point.

Pot should be treated like alcohol/cigarettes and subjected to the same rules and regulations. There are numerous benefits to doing so.


When I was in community college I wrote a paper about the gateway drug effect. Interesting research, not only is it a prime example of post propter ergo propter hoc (I think that's how it goes) but the vast majority of people opposed to regulation hold this belief true. Fact of the matter is if someone is selling weed to teens they're likely to try to sell other things. Basically everyone I knew who smoked pot in high school started with cigarettes and alcohol anyway.

I still think prescription abuse is a bigger problem than marijuana. And to go off what sar pointed out the people opposed to legalization that don't consider the gateway effect and other arguments (mostly) neocons give? The cartels.

And just to keep this somewhat relevant to the blog looks like a nasty weekend for the Canadian Maritimes.
Quoting 358. sar2401:
In other words, actual weather sometimes doesn't behave like models forecast. Now you're hanging your hat on what the same model says for Sunday, and it may be wrong again. You can't have it where you're right if a model is correct but, it's the model's fault, not yours, if it doesn't happen. You own your forecast, no matter where it came from. Models are just a bunch of zeros and ones. They don't know if they were right or wrong, they just keep running. They also don't hand out crow. If they did, you'd be buried under a three times lifetime supply for hanging on to models that wrongly forecast an El Nino for almost a year now.


Ain't that the truth. Our local NWS office likes to "model chase". In the last three days, my forecast for tomorrow night has gone from heavy rain to showers and back again at least six times.
Quoting Chucktown:
My man, Frankie McDonald with his Texas forecast, live from Nova Scotia. Take it away Frank....

Link
Frankie is my go-to guy when it comes to sewer forecasts. He's just never wrong when he talks about those things backing up like that. :-)
What effect will Nuri have down the road after it hits Alaska, any thoughts..
Possible first snow for me by November 11.
Quoting 360. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Hmm...I don't remember mentioning Christie nor Romney in my post.


they would be the ideal candidates that could run in 2016 for the GOP and heavily favored..
Tropical Depression VANCE
7:00 AM PST Wed Nov 5
Location: 22.7°N 105.7°W
Moving: NE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
372. MahFL
Quoting 362. scott39:

We need a Democrat or Republican president who will govern from the center.


That is unlikely to happen any time soon.
If there is to be any real legislation on climate change, we will need a president who is a moderate and can work with both parties.
ROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014
700 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014

Vance is currently making landfall along the coast of Mexico to the
southeast of Mazatlan as a tropical depression with maximum winds
estimated to be 25 kt. The cyclone barely meets the qualifications
for a tropical cyclone since the low-level center is becoming
elongated. Vance is producing a small area of deep convection to
the north of the center over western Mexico, and the larger swath of
moisture seen in satellite images to its southeast is not directly
associated with this system.

The weakening cyclone continues to turn to the right, and the
latest initial motion estimate is 055/11. Although a 12-hour
forecast position is shown, it would not be surprising if Vance
dissipates over western Mexico before then.

Even though the tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate soon,
moisture from the remnants of Vance and the area to its southeast
should continue to spread northeastward across Mexico and into the
south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains over
portions of these areas, which should continue for another day or
two.
Quoting 372. MahFL:


That is unlikely to happen any time soon.
why? There are plenty of good candidates. We dont need another Bush or Clinton.
Quoting 373. scott39:

If there is to be any real legislation on climate change, we will need a president who is a moderate and can work with both parties.
Yep...Its called an Independent....If there is a Rep or Dem in there, it will be the same old song...well he/she is still a Dem, or she/he is still a Rep..
Quoting 368. bayoubug:

What effect will Nuri have down the road after it hits Alaska, any thoughts..
May become Lower 48 winter storm. Or influence one.
Quoting 372. MahFL:



That is unlikely to happen any time soon.
Indeed...The Sun will likely have spent all its hydrogen to helium before that even begins....which would be a to little to late.
Quoting MahFL:
"After alcohol, THC (delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol), the active ingredient in marijuana, is the substance most commonly found in the blood of impaired drivers, fatally injured drivers, and motor vehicle crash victims."

I would think keeping traffic accidents as low as possible would be a good reason for not legalizing weed. Upto 14 % of victims have weed in their bloodstream.

Personally I am on the fence regarding legalization.
Almost every state I'm aware of changed drunk driving laws to impaired driving laws many years ago. The penalties are exactly the same no matter what substance was causing you to drive badly - and that's the point. I couldn't just randomly pull people over and haul them in for breathalyzer or blood tests. You had to be be driving badly to give me probable cause to pull you over. It's behavior, not if you have anything in your bloodstream, that's the cause of legal action.
Quoting 378. hydrus:
Yep...Its called an Independent....If there is a Rep or Dem in there, it will be the same old song...well he/she is still a Dem, or she/he is still a Rep..
Americans need to educate themselves on whats best for America. We have let politicians divide us. We are starving for a leader who will put this country back on the right track. We need to be part of the solution and not the problem.
Quoting JohnLonergan:



Got any numbers, any facts? I thought not.



Here's some more.
It's more than a little disingenuous to say the guy before me put us in debt so it's not any worse if I put us in more debt. If Obama had his curve like Clinton's, we'd be less in debt today. Once you take office, it's your debt, not the other guy's.
Have a good day everyone.....United we stand Divided we will enventually fall.
Quoting 383. yoboi:




> Ronald Reagan’s First Term – $656 billion increase

> Ronald Reagan’s Second Term – $1.036 trillion increase

> George H.W. Bush’s Term – $1.587 trillion increase

> Bill Clinton’s First Term – $1.122 trillion increase

> Bill Clinton’s Second Term – $418 billion increase

> George W. Bush’s First Term – $1.885 trillion increase

> George W. Bush’s Second Term – $3.014 trillion increase

> Barack Obama’s First Term – $5.806 trillion increase

Link




You forgot context of a recession in there. Basic Keynesian economics for mixed economies dictates increased spending to jump start economic growth as part of the function of GDP. Since the large spending, deficits have been dropping at the fastest pace since post WW2, and unemployment numbers, the stock market, housing markets, and consumer confidence have all made progress to return to pre recession numbers, with some metrics even surpassing pre recession value, like the stock market. I wish people didn't sleep through macroeconomics in school.
I wish people didn't sleep through macroeconomics in school.


thank you
388. yoboi
Quoting 386. Naga5000:




You forgot context of a recession in there. Basic Keynesian economics for mixed economies dictates increased spending to jump start economic growth as part of the function of GDP. Since the large spending, deficits have been dropping at the fastest pace since post WW2, and unemployment numbers, the stock market, housing markets, and consumer confidence have all made progress to return to pre recession numbers, with some metrics even surpassing pre recession value, like the stock market. I wish people didn't sleep through macroeconomics in school.


I was just posting the facts......Please show where the data I provided is false......
i know the tropics are fairly quiet but when did this become a political blog?
Quoting 313. absurfer:

Yea the dems have been real productive 10 trillion in new debt, don't even pass a budget.

You might remember back in civics class that there are multiple branches of government. Each branch is elected separately, and can actually have different parties "in charge." In both the 2010 and 2012 elections, the House of Representatives has been majority republican (although popular vote was majority democrat in both elections). As such, we've had a divided government. By law, all matters involving taxes (and traditionally, also bills involving spending money) start in the House of Representatives. But the House cannot make bills into law on its own, and thus must pass bills that can be negotiated with the other half of Congress (the Senate) and the the president.

As such, it is not fair to claim that one party caused all of the debt, nor is it fair to claim that one party didn't pass a budget, when it is not that said one party completely in charge of government.
Quoting 388. yoboi:



I was just posting the facts......Please show where the data I provided is false......


It's not false, it lacks context. The data by itself are misleading without context.
Quoting 384. sar2401:

It's more than a little disingenuous to say the guy before me put us in debt so it's not any worse if I put us in more debt. If Obama had his curve like Clinton's, we'd be less in debt today. Once you take office, it's your debt, not the other guy's.

I think you are misunderstanding the difference between debt and deficit. One is psuedo-instantaneous. The other is cumulative. Something that accumulated at a prior time does not magically become matched with a different point in time just because the source of the difference changed.
Quoting 388. yoboi:



I was just posting the facts......Please show where the data I provided is false......
Quoting 391. Naga5000:



It's not false, it lacks context. The data by itself are misleading without context.

One can remind yoboi of that time and again - and lord knows it's been attempted - yet nothing changes. We probably shouldn't assume different.
Quoting 389. fire635:

i know the tropics are fairly quiet but when did this become a political blog?




lol since last night oh well nothing we can do about it this went the boys have there fun where this a long for the ride
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Edit. Dang! Doc was quicker once again, lol.
Quoting 352. hydrus:

They would all have to act like adults because of the system. Its like a bunch of kids on each side complaining that one team may get more candy than the other, or in this case...Money...I am tired of having to cater to what amounts to calming down angry 5 year olds.


You've just insulted the international population of 5 year olds.
Quoting 297. Neapolitan:



The thing is, the GOP won't be able to blame its utter lack of output--the Republican-led US House has been the least productive in the nation's history--on the Senate come January. It'll be interesting to see who/what they point the finger at then...
What a crock. Harry Reid suppress that everything that the Republicans brought to the floor