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Typhoon Nesat kills 12 in the Philippines; Ophelia regenerating

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2011

Typhoon Nesat roared across Luzon Island in the Philippines last night as a dangerous Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. The typhoon likely dumped 12 - 15 inches of rain along portions of it path, according to satellite rainfall amount forecasts. Flooding and drownings been blamed for at least 12 deaths in the Philippines. We don't have any weather stations on the east coast of Luzon near where the eye came ashore that survived to send us data, but winds at Iba on the west coast of Luzon reached a sustained speed of 67 mph at 5 pm local time today as the eyewall of Nesat moved through. Cabanatuan in Central Luzon received 5.55" inches of rain. The center of Nesat passed well north of the capital of Manila, which received sustained winds of 37 mph, gusting to 55, and 2.74" of rain. Heavy flooding is reported in Manila, where the soils were saturated by heavy seasonal monsoon rains before the arrival of Nesat. Nesat's winds drove a storm surge that smashed through the seawall protecting Manila, and significant storm surge flooding occurred along the shore. Nesat is now a disorganized Category 1 typhoon with 95 mph winds over the South China Sea, and is expected to re-intensify into a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall near China's Hainan Island on Thursday and northern Vietnam on Friday.


Figure 1. Microwave image from NOAA's F-16 satellite showing the estimated rain rate of Typhoon Nesat as it was making landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines at 6:31 pm EDT Monday, September 26, 2011. Rainfall rates over 1"/hour (orange colors) were occurring in much of the eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Atlantic update: Ophelia rising again, Philippe no threat
The remains of Tropical Storm Ophelia continue to fester in the Atlantic a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and now appear ready to re-organize into a tropical depression. Martinique radar shows a large area of concentrated thunderstorms lies about 200 miles to the east of the northern Lesser Antilles, though with only a little rotation and very limited spiral banding. Recent satellite loops show that Ophelia may now have a closed surface circulation, and heavy thunderstorms are increasing, though are limited in areal extent. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Ophelia this afternoon at 2 pm to see if a tropical depression has formed.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the Martinique radar shows the heavy rain showers from Ophelia, just east of the northern Lesser Antilles. Image credit: Meteo-France.

Dry air and moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots are slowing down the regeneration process, and will continue to limit Ophelia's intensification over the next few days. NHC gave Ophelia an 80% chance of regenerating by Thursday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, and most of the models give strong support to Ophelia regenerating. I expect Ophelia will be a tropical storm again by Wednesday. A trough of low pressure should steer Ophelia to the northwest and then north over the next five days, with the storm making its closest pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for Bermuda this weekend. Ophelia is not a threat to any other land areas, though the storm will bring some heavy rain squalls and wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Wednesday.

In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Philippe is headed northwest into the middle of the North Atlantic, and is not expected to trouble and land areas. Wind shear is high enough over Philippe that the storm is unlikely to become a hurricane over the next five days.

Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Hilary slowly weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary has slowly weakened to a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. A trough of low pressure is expected to turn Hilary to sharply to the north on Wednesday. Since Hilary will be crossing cool water and encountering increased wind shear, the storm will weaken rapidly beginning Wednesday, and all of the models show Hilary dissipating before reaching the coast.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Hilary at 4:35 pm EDT September 26, 2011. At the time, Hilary was a Category 3 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

If Ex-Ophelia is deemed a tropical depression/storm, what will it be named? Sorry for the stupid question...I'm new to the weather scene. Thanks!
first! thanks Dr. M!!
Nice update. Thank you.

The Philippines' unique geography has once again made it a target for a large and destructive tropical system. Simply incredible...
Thank you, for the update, Dr. Masters.

The Atlantic systems sure have been slow to spin up and cover up this year. That is not a bad thing.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Quoting Typhoeus:
If Ex-Ophelia is deemed a tropical depression/storm, what will it be named? Sorry for the stupid question...I'm new to the weather scene. Thanks!

If ex-Ophelia regenerates into a TS, it will retain its name.
thanks Doc!
Quoting Guysgal:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

A big Julie Christie fan, are you? ;-)
Quoting Typhoeus:
If Ex-Ophelia is deemed a tropical depression/storm, what will it be named? Sorry for the stupid question...I'm new to the weather scene. Thanks!
Not a stupid question at all.
Thank you for the update, Dr. Master.
If Ophelia regenerates, which would be the possible track??
Doc does Ophelia can be a treat for us in PR?
Doctor T - from what Dr. M. says above, it looks like it would skirt Bermuda and not threaten mainland U.S.
Quoting Typhoeus:
If Ex-Ophelia is deemed a tropical depression/storm, what will it be named? Sorry for the stupid question...I'm new to the weather scene. Thanks!
Ophelia. It still has enough of the original characteristics to keep the name. There has been others of question. I can think that Katrina was one of them. She was born out of the remnants, partially, of dead tropical storm if I recall correctly.
" A trough of low pressure should steer Ophelia to the northwest and then north over the next five days, with the storm making its closest pass by Bermuda on Saturday. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for Bermuda this weekend. Ophelia is not a threat to any other land areas, though the storm will bring some heavy rain squalls and wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Wednesday."

***forecast uncertainty past 3 days disclaimer***
Quoting popartpete:
Ophelia. It still has enough of the original characteristics to keep the name. There has been others of question. I can think that Katrina was one of them. She was born out of the remnants, partially, of dead tropical storm if I recall correctly.

To be exact, TD 10 (2005)
Hey, i'm back again. I saw light to moderate chaos near my house due to Nesat. Some of the chaos i saw was a roof blown and a metal billboard scraped. Lucky that i'm safe.
Wouldn't ex-ophelia be renamed Rina?
Always bermuda! I think warnings could be necessary in the NE Antilles depending on a close she gets.
Quoting weatherrx2012:
Wouldn't ex-ophelia be renamed Rina?


no
Quoting weatherrx2012:
Wouldn't ex-ophelia be renamed Rina?

Since it didnt completely lose her identity, no.
Looks like Bermuda has more warnings than anyone else. But right now Ophelia is STILL way out....
We need some climatology quotes to really spicen' up this blog today! Maybe some statistics on how ex storms that form in this area of the Caribbean dont hit CONUS or they recurve or they increase Al Gore's hair line or they bring out the trolls, west casters, east casters, whatever... on the blog.

Okay...I am stepping away from the coffee this morning.

Did anyone notice exOphelia's forecast next to Philippe?
It's on the wind probabilities forecast from NHC.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

Did anyone notice exOphelia's forecast next to Philippe?


Yes lol... but it will be reviewed more westward
Link

Thought I'd post this for all the other adrenaline junkies out there. Sort of weather related.

Enjoy!
MJO at beginning of October? Im not sold on that L moving ex O out east.
Lol shear and dry air are back again.. WHAT!!?? Could someone push this dry air away from ophelia, I wish to get some decent rain it's extremely hot here!!
I think the CMC has a better handle on Ophelias track, look at the steering pattern, Ophelia should head WNW for a bit longer, no sharp NW turn. A recurve between the US and Bermuda looks more likely then a recurve towards Bermuda.
Quoting reedzone:
I think the CMC has a better handle on Ophelias track, look at the steering pattern, Ophelia should head WNW for a bit longer, no sharp NW turn. A recurve between the US and Bermuda looks more likely then a recurve towards Bermuda.


So warnings may be required for the Leewards...
Quoting CaribBoy:


So warnings may be required for the Leewards...


No, Ophelia should be north enough to spare the islands, however, Bermuda may want to watch Phillipe. He should steer westward for a while and may threaten Bermuda later on. I must say, Phillipe reminds me alot of Irene in 2005. A further north storm, but traveled west for a long time.
Look for tropical trouble in the NW Caribbean or S GOM around Oct 12th.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Not a stupid question at all.


Thank you!! I really appreciate it.
By Saturday we'll(Orlando) have sunny skies withs temps in the 80's, lows in the low-mid 60's and dewpoints in the 40's. Bring on the fronts!!!
Quoting CaribBoy:


So warnings may be required for the Leewards...


From Dr. Masters Blog
Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for Bermuda this weekend. Ophelia is not a threat to any other land areas, though the storm will bring some heavy rain squalls and wind gusts of 25 - 35 mph to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands today and Wednesday.
Good Morning...

I see the tropics are still slowly motoring along. (good)... Any new model runs on things spinning in the GOM/ or Western Caribbean?
Hilary should have her turn signal on. Can't wait to see how close she comes to matching the forecast track.. How's TX holding out? looks like 20% precip for the next few days?
Good Evening all. I have done some investigation of wx stations in the Philippines
and found these







Click for Basa Air Base, Philippines Forecast
Because shear and dry air are slowing development process, Ophelia should move more west (cmc track)
Here are some local news on Pedring/Nesat. Some contain Video of Pedring/Nesat.

Link

Link

Link



This is the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council Sitrep on the effects of Typhoon Pedring/Nesat(PDF) Link
Thanks Jeff...
The NHC says Ophelia's remnants will move northwest. I'm really not buying that right now till I see signs of it, mainly because it was supposed to turn more northward a while ago and never did. However, the chances of it ever threatening the U.S. are very low. The reason for this is we have already had the strong trough pattern that helps keep hurricanes away from the U.S. Furthermore, as we head into fall this pattern will only sharpen, a cold front will clear all the way through Central Florida on Friday, probably showing a sign of the end for the wet season as well a tropical cyclone threats.
45. 7544
looks like o moved alittle south last night and seems like she wants to go that way <------ could she surprise us today lets see if they relocate her further south latter wait wat ch and see
I bet O will affect the N Leewards with heavy rains and TS gusts.
Ophelia is slowly creeping toward the Leewards, however the NHC seems hell bent on her headed NNW/N
Quoting stormpetrol:
Ophelia is slowly creeping toward the Leewards, however the NHC seems hell bent on her headed NNW/N


yes let see recon at 2pm
Quoting stormpetrol:
Ophelia is slowly creeping toward the Leewards, however the NHC seems hell bent on her headed NNW/N


Yeah. They also kept saying wind shear was high after it had fallen to 5-10knots. No idea what's going on over there.
But maybe the LLC is moving to the NW, while the convection moves westward? XD
51. 7544
might be a tdwhen the plane gets done what u think
One thing is obvious, there is no shortage of west winds with Ophelia, they might find a TS.
I don't get it... NW?
I would understand WNW.

Quoting JLPR2:
I don't get it... NW?
I would understand WNW.



sometimes those products mislead you. its happened to me before... maybe i should go to met school lol
Quoting serialteg:


sometimes those products mislead you. its happened to me before... maybe i should go to met school lol


I guess, maybe the next update will show the High breaking up.
Quoting JLPR2:
I don't get it... NW?
I would understand WNW.

The weakness is moving faster to the east than ophelia is moving forward.... it's wow right now, but it won't be by the time she approaches the weakness.
57. 7544
gfs brings back the strom below cuba long ways out Link
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
The weakness is moving faster to the east than ophelia is moving forward.... it's wow right now, but it won't be by the time she approaches the weakness.


is the front or weakness the thing that's NNW of puerto rico thats generating showers and heading SSE?
Quoting JLPR2:
I don't get it... NW?
I would understand WNW.



Exactly my point.. The CMC has it down just about right.
Quoting JNCali:
Hilary should have her turn signal on. Can't wait to see how close she comes to matching the forecast track.. How's TX holding out? looks like 20% precip for the next few days?


Low 100s and dry. So pretty much the same weather since May.
61. 7544
she looks stalled at this hour
Ophelia = west of Bermuda, East of the US.. Bet on it!
Finally i think we have a defined LLC.