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Typhoon Nepartak Drenches Taiwan, Killing 2; Now Headed For China

By: Jeff Masters 3:40 PM GMT on July 08, 2016

Typhoon Nepartak powered ashore over the southeastern shore of Taiwan at approximately 6:30 pm EDT (22:30 UTC) July 7 as a Category 4 super typhoon with top sustained winds of 150 mph, as estimated by the the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) estimated that Nepartak had a central pressure of 930 mb shortly before landfall. Nepartak hit a relatively unpopulated portion of Taiwan, limiting the damage from the storm. At this writing, two deaths from drowning and 72 injuries had been blamed on the storm. The nearest large city to the storm's landfall location, Taitung (population 107,000), measured sustained 10-minute winds of 81 mph, gusting to 114 mph, at 21 UTC Thursday, in the northwest eyewall of Nepartak. Taitung's pressure sank as low as 964 mb. Lanyu, on an island just off the coast, saw sustained winds (10-minute average) of 101 mph, with a gust to 160 mph, at 02:15 UTC July 8, when the station was in the south eyewall of Nepartak. Several locations in southeast Taiwan received over 15" of rain in less than 24 hours from Nepartak: Tianxiang (19.05" or 484 mm) and Yuli (17.48" or 444 mm.) National Taiwan University (NTU) buoy NTU2 (located about 170 km southeast of Taitung, Taiwan) recorded a surface pressure of approximately 897 mb as the eye passed over near 8 am EDT Thursday. If verified, this may rank as the lowest surface pressure ever measured by a buoy in world history. A team from National Taiwan University is working to verify that the calibration of the pressure on this buoy was correct.


Figure 1. Radar image of Super Typhoon Nepartak making landfall in southeastern Taiwan taken at 5:30 pm EDT July 7, 2016 (5:30 am local time on Friday in Taiwan.) Image credit: http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/>Taiwan CWB.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Nepartak approaching landfall in Taiwan on the evening of July 7, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB/Colorado State.

Nepartak dramatically weaker after hitting Taiwan
The encounter with the high mountains of Taiwan destroyed the inner core of Nepartak, resulting in the surface circulation separating from the circulation at mid-levels of the atmosphere. The surface circulation moved to the southwest and then west to the southwest corner of Taiwan, while the mid-level circulation continued moving more to the west and west-northwest. Whenever a tropical cyclone loses vertical alignment like this, weakening results, and Nepartak was rated a mere Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds and a 970 mb surface pressure by JTWC and JMA at 8 am EDT Friday. Satellite loops on Friday morning from NOAA/SSED and NOAA/RAMMB showed a very disorganized storm with heavy thunderstorms occurring only along its southern flank, over southern Taiwan.


Figure 3. MODIS visible satellite image of Typhoon Nepartak at 03:10 UTC July 8 (11:10 pm EDT July 7), 2016. At the time, Nepartak was a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Nepartak's impact on Taiwan and China
Nepartak had slowed down to a northwest motion at 4 - 5 mph on Friday morning (U.S. EDT), and the typhoon will make landfall in eastern China on Saturday and dissipate by Sunday. Given the slow movement of the typhoon, heavy rains from the storm will be confined primarily close to the coast. This is good news for China, since the coastal region has seen relatively light rains of 1 - 4 inches over the past ten days, and flooding from Nepartak's expected 4 - 8" of rain will likely not be catastrophic there. Had Nepartak been able to penetrate several hundred miles inland and reach the region between Wuhan and Shanghai, where over 16" of rain has fallen over the past ten days, a multi-billion dollar flood disaster would have resulted. According to insurance broker Aon Benfield, heavy monsoon rains since June 30 in the Yangtze River Basin have already killed nearly 200 people and cost $8.7 billion. The hardest-hit areas were in Hubei Province, where up to 1,295 millimeters (4.24 feet) of rain have fallen since June 30.

Taiwan's recent typhoon history
Nepartak is not the strongest typhoon to hit Taiwan. At least two typhoons have hit Taiwan at Category 5 strength: Super Typhoon Joan, which made landfall in 1959 with 185 mph winds, and Super Typhoon Bilis, which intensified from a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds to a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds in the 30 hours before making landfall on the island on August 22, 2000. Bilis killed 14 people and did $134 million in damage to Taiwan. The island was hit by two major typhoons last year: Category 4 Typhoon Dujuan and Category 3 Typhoon Soudelor. The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan has a list (in Chinese) of all the typhoons that have affected Taiwan.

Nepartak: Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2016
Nepartak is the third Category 5 storm on Earth so far in 2016. Its 900 mb minimum surface pressure makes it the strongest tropical cyclone of the year (by pressure), and its peak 175 mph winds are tied for the second strongest winds of the year. The other two Category 5 storms earlier this year were in the Southern Hemisphere: the Southwest Indian Ocean's Tropical Cyclone Fantala, which topped out with 175 mph winds and a 910 mb central pressure on April 17, and the Southeast Pacific's Tropical Cyclone Winston, which devastated Fiji on February 20 with sustained winds of 180 mph. Winston's lowest central pressure was 915 mb. Both storms were tied for the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed (by sustained winds) in their respective ocean basins. On average, Earth sees 4 - 5 Category 5 storms per year, with over 50% of these being typhoons in the Northwest Pacific. It is rare to have the first named storm of the year in an ocean basin make it to Category 5 strength. This has happened at least twice before in the Northwest Pacific--in 1958, when Category 5 Super Typhoon Ophelia formed in January, and in 2000, with Super Typhoon Damrey (thanks to WU member 1900hurricane for this stat). The Atlantic has had two cases where the first named storm of the year made it to Cat 5--Hurricane Allen in 1980, and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (thanks go to WU member Tcwx2 for reminding me of Andrew).


Figure 4. Storm Chaser James Reynolds rode out Nepartak in Taitung, and took this photo of an overturned car during the storm. His Twitter feed has more photos and videos.

Storm chasers ride out Nepartak
Storm Chaser Josh Morgerman of iCyclone rode out the storm in Taitung, and had this eyewitness account: "In the early-morning darkness the NW eyewall raked downtown Taitung with terrifying ferocity. The howling was deafening as the air filled with lethal swirling debris. My ears popped painfully during the peak gusts. The hotel's front entrance took a beating, and we thought the front doors would smash-- but instead the winds tore apart the restaurant at the back of the lobby-- all the windows completely blew out-- so that furniture and debris blew into the elevator area.

Then the center made a funny S hook just before landfall-- very typical of Taiwanese typhoons-- so the eye just missed us. From there, the pressure started to rise-- from a low of around 960 mb-- and the winds are now slowly lessening. It's a mess outside. The driveway is filled with every kind of wreckage from God knows where, including signs, branches, tin, a nice old chair, etc. The school across the street has lost almost all of its roof.

This typhoon was a beast-- definitely one of the worst I've been in. The JTWC's final intensity estimate before landfall-- 130 knots, a strong Cat 4 USA-- seems reasonable. And it seems like this city of 107K people felt its full force. An older man I talked to in the lobby-- a Taiwanese dude who's been in many typhoons-- said he never saw wind this strong or felt so frightened during a typhoon.

I'm exhausted and looking forward to sleep. Deep, deeeeep, cyclone-freeee sleeeeeeeeep."


Nepartak Links
Brian McNoldy has a continuously updating radar loop of Nepartak. It is interesting to watch as the storm makes landfall, it gets deflected to the southwest by the high mountains of Taiwan.

Stunning zoomed-in visible animation of Nepartak from July 7, 2016, from NOAA/RAMMB/Colorado State.

Spectacular zoomed-out visible animation of Nepartak from July 7, 2016, from NOAA/RAMMB/Colorado State.



Figure 5. VIIRS visible satellite image of Hurricane Blas taken at 21:40 UTC (5:40 pm EDT) July 7, 2016. At the time, Blas was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific remains active
The Eastern Pacific, which got off to its second slowest start on record on July 2 when Tropical Storm Agatha formed, now has two more named storms. Hurricane Blas peaked as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds at 11 pm EDT July 6, but is headed west-northwest into a region with cool waters and more stable air, which will make the storm dissipate by Sunday without affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Celia formed on Friday morning, but is having trouble with the wake of cold water left behind by Blas. However, Celia should be able to eventually intensify into a hurricane as it heads west to west-northwest over the next week. Long-range runs from the GFS and European model do show a weakening Celia coming within 500 miles of Hawaii on July 16 - 17, so the islands should keep an eye on the storm. And we could have Tropical Storm Darby coming: both the European and GFS models show an area of disturbed weather will develop several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico by Tuesday, and this disturbance has the potential to intensify into a tropical storm late in the week. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this future disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 20%, respectively.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. On July 12 - 13, an area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of North Carolina, and it is possible that this low could acquire some tropical characteristics as it moves northeastwards out to sea. The low should not impact any land areas in the U.S.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

From the previous blog
Quoting 287. Ed22:

We could have Earl in 6 days, still wait and see moment.


Yeah, wait and see. The Euro didn't do so well with the last system it tried to develop that came off the Mid Atlantic.
But conditions are a little more favorable now.

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters...
Good for China that Taiwan tore apart the storm after all.
The highly unreliable CMC has the low ejected from NC and sends it to Bermuda.
Quoting 3. gunhilda:

Good for China that Taiwan tore apart the storm after all.


The south side has major convection reforming though.

Thanks Doc.
good lunch time read doc thanks

Thanks, Doc. beell was talking about that potential SW deflection yesterday, so I wasn't surprised that it happened.

Glad the likely impact for central China has lessened in intensity.

Meanwhile, it has continued overcast here, which means the temp is currently only 89 .... super!


The first storm of the 2000 Pacific Typhoon Season was also a category 5. Typhoon Damrey intensified all the way to an estimated 155 kt in May.





Another fun fact, the Western Pacific naming system changed for 2000 to the system that is used right now. Damrey was the first storm of the new naming system. Needless to say, it definitely kicked off with a bang.
Thanks Dr. Masters! We will see what that low off the NC coast on July 12-13th does.
Quoting 9. 1900hurricane:

The first storm of the 2000 Pacific Typhoon Season was also a category 5. Typhoon Damrey intensified all the way to an estimated 155 kt in May.





Another fun fact, the Western Pacific naming system changed for 2000 to the system that is used right now. Damrey was the first storm of the new naming system. Needless to say, it definitely kicked off with a bang.


Thanks! I added this stat to the post.

Dr. M.
Water temp Low 70's off NJ shore in early July. Unheard of when I was a boy. 70F and above was reserved for late July and August. Then back into the 60's a week or two after labor day.

However I do see a little green 69F right off Monmouth County. We always trailed a few degrees below south Jersey.

Quoting 1. Sfloridacat5:

From the previous blog


Yeah, wait and see. The Euro didn't do so well with the last system it tried to develop that came off the Mid Atlantic.
But conditions are a little more favorable now.


Quoting 10. Climate175:

Thanks Dr. Masters! We will see what that low off the NC coast on July 12-13th does.

its to move ne away from the U.S.
or that's what the doc thinks
up above in his blog post anyway
still be interesting too watch either way
Thanks, I've learnt so much reading this blog over the years (and yet I know that I know nothing ;-). I'm glad too that the storm didn't have a higher toll, although I guess the Taiwanese now have a lot of work to clean up, repair and rebuild in the south. From the videos I could see yesterday I think a lot of roofs may have been blown off in some places, even if many buildings are built to withstand this kind of event there.
The Phillipines archipelago and Taiwan get hit so often that I guess there may be local experts who've been through half-a-dozen or a dozen typhoons in their lifetimes, they must tell incredible stories sometimes (even if a single storm is enough sometimes to change your life forever...).
I have a technical question for whoever would like to answer it : wind power grows with wind speed, obviously, but is it significantly influenced by other factors, like the atmos. pressure, the moisture, dust and aerosols it contains, for example ?
No EPAC storms not much monsoon in New Mexico. We need those to crank up. Way hotter and drier than normal.
Looks like the MDR, ITCZ makes a definite move northward, certainly helping development of tropical waves and possibly long tracked Cape-Verde type storms. Compare this currently:

To this in 16 days:

See the northward shift?
Quoting 16. Tcwx2:

Looks like the MDR, ITCZ makes a definite move northward, certainly helping development of tropical waves and possibly long tracked Cape-Verde type storms. Compare this currently:

To this in 16 days:

See the northward shift?
Setting it up for an interesting time ahead.
As a system nears a tipping point, it tends to swing to the extremes -

SC drought committee meets 9 months after massive floods

Link
Shear across the Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean is a complete flip from the past few seasons; this will bare watching come August onward. Anything forming reaches the jet fuel over the Caribbean and we could see storms resembling monsters we haven't seen in a very long time. Lets hope the re-curve pattern that has been in place for years now, stays the same.
Quoting 19. DeepSeaRising:

Shear across the Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean is a complete flip from the past few seasons; this will bare watching come August onward. Anything forming reaches the jet fuel over the Caribbean and we could see storms resembling monsters we haven't seen in a very long time. Lets hope the re-curve pattern that has been in place for years now, stays the same.


Not likely, if this huge heat ridge stays in place over the E coast. Let's hope the pattern changes by then.
"The Atlantic has had two cases where the first named storm of the year made it to Cat 5--Hurricane Allen in 1980, and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (thanks go to WU member Tcwx2 for reminding me of Andrew)."

Uhh. Dr. Masters. Why did you need reminded of Hurricane Andrew? Didn't you almost die flying into that thing as a hurricane hunter?
Quoting 21. AldreteMichael:

"The Atlantic has had two cases where the first named storm of the year made it to Cat 5--Hurricane Allen in 1980, and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (thanks go to WU member Tcwx2 for reminding me of Andrew)."

Uhh. Dr. Masters. Why did you need reminded of Hurricane Andrew? Didn't you almost die flying into that thing as a hurricane hunter?


I believe that was Hurricane Hugo.
It was Hugo in 89' where Dr. Masters was the NOAA flight met and they barely survived.


Hunting Hugo
Hunting Hugo
In September of 1989, a NOAA hurricane hunter airplane intercepted Hurricane Hugo as it approached the Caribbean islands, just before Hugo's destructive rampage through the Caribbean and South Carolina. The crew of the airplane were the first people to encounter the mighty hurricane--and very nearly became its first victims. The mission remains the most harrowing flight ever conducted by the NOAA hurricane hunters. I served as flight meteorologist on that flight, and feel fortunate indeed to be able to tell the story.

— Dr. Jeff Masters — Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground
Quoting 20. nash36:



Not likely, if this huge heat ridge stays in place over the E coast. Let's hope the pattern changes by then.


Oh no! For real though. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that ridge is forecast to be there at least into peak? South Florida is ground zero for landfall. Historically gets hit more than anywhere else on the East Coast or Gulf Coast. Surge isn't the biggest concern with deep shelf waters off the coast there, but storms don't weaken like they do just before landfall in the Gulf. Last wave convection moved north of Puerto Rico but was shunted hard south and west then, not a good sign indeed. We could easily see at least one category five in the Caribbean this year, I really hope that doesn't happen.
Oh. Sorry about that. It was Hugo.

Now I have to figure out why I thought Andrew.
Quoting 25. DeepSeaRising:



Oh no! For real though. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that ridge is forecast to be there at least into peak? South Florida is ground zero for landfall. Historically gets hit more than anywhere else on the East Coast or Gulf Coast. Surge isn't the biggest concern with deep shelf waters off the coast there, but storms don't weaken like they do just before landfall in the Gulf. Last wave convection moved north of Puerto Rico but was shunted hard south and west then, not a good sign indeed. We could easily see at least one category five in the Caribbean this year, I really hope that doesn't happen.


That bonkers B/A High, which has supressed convection thus far, along with the heat dome, is reminiscent of the steering pattern we saw in 2004. I am in no way suggesting that we will have a repeat in eventual storm tracks, but this pattern does not favor the one we have had the last few years, with storms curving around 60-65W.

At this point, anything that forms at lower latitudes (10-15N), it's westward ho.
Latest Euro:

IMHO, it will be nothing short of a miracle if we escape this season without a landfalling hurricane. Not a TS, a major hurricane.

31. IDTH
Quoting 27. nash36:



That bonkers B/A High, which has supressed convection thus far, along with the heat dome, is reminiscent of the steering pattern we saw in 2004. I am in no way suggesting that we will have a repeat in eventual storm tracks, but this pattern does not favor the one we have had the last few years, with storms curving around 60-65W.

At this point, anything that forms at lower latitudes (10-15N), it's westward ho.

Yeah that seems to be dominant steering pattern. This same one set up in 2013 as well but thankfully that season was dead because of all the sinking motion across the region. I'm guessing in 2004 and 2005, the Atlantic must've been in an upward motion throughout most of the season during the peak.


weak stuff and sleepers
Those waters are bubbly warm.
I see Celia forms in the Pacific. Celia was cat 3 Hurricane that ravaged Corpus Christi ,Tx in 1970 ,I guess they are allowed to use retired names in the pacific?
Stay cool. Stay safe. Looks as though the heat and humidity are coming in for an extended stay. Remember this is not the atmosphere of our childhoods.
Thanks for the new blog on Nepartak, doc. Below the latest:

Nepartak ravages east, south, leaves 3 dead and 142 injured
The China Post news staff, July 9, 2016, 12:10 am TWN

Not related to Nepartak, but worrisome as well:

Forests of the sea in Western Australia slashed by marine heatwave
ABC Science, By Dani Cooper, Updated Thu at 9:24pm
Great swathes of the temperate kelp forests on Western Australia's reefs that underpin tourism and fisheries industries worth $10 billion annually are gone.
And the demise of these remarkable "forests of the sea" is likely permanent, researchers say in a study published today.
"Off the coast around Kalbarri to Geraldton, where these reefs used to be dominated by kelp forests, those forests have completely disappeared," researcher Dr Scott Bennett, now based at the Spanish National Research Council, said.
"A lot of the [temperate] fish and invertebrates have disappeared and we've seen these communities shift to something that resembles the tropical fish and seaweed communities we would find at Ningaloo."
Associate Professor Thomas Wernberg, from the University of Western Australia, who helped lead the research with Dr Bennett, described the kelp forests as the "biological engine" of the Great Southern Reef ...

Whole article see link above.
thank you dr masters. my novice opinion the mdr region will be slow to about aug 15th. sheared tropical waves until then
The hardest-hit areas were in Hubei Province, where up to 1,295 millimeters (4.24 feet) of rain have fallen since June 30.

OMG wish we could even get that yearly
Quoting 16. Tcwx2:

Looks like the MDR, ITCZ makes a definite move northward, certainly helping development of tropical waves and possibly long tracked Cape-Verde type storms. Compare this currently:

To this in 16 days:

See the northward shift?


Fishes in sight!!
Ooh, just remembered another one. Hurricane Anita from the 1977 Atlantic Hurricane Season was another category 5 1st named storm.

Andrew '92 may be a bit of a technicality. 1992 featured a subtropical storm in April. At the time, subtropical storms went unnamed, but were still documented, unlike today when the NHC names them.

Provided by Independent Print Limited
Somebody needs to turn the calendar to October. It's too freaking hot. Currently 96/70 at my house, down from the 101/72 a few hours ago.

Side note: I was out of the house most of yesterday, and by the time I got home the news of the Dallas shooting was ongoing. I'll also be gone this evening and tomorrow morning/early afternoon. I'll have a new blog tomorrow evening, for anybody interested.
Quoting 41. 1900hurricane:

Ooh, just remembered another one. Hurricane Anita from the 1977 Atlantic Hurricane Season was another category 5 1st named storm.

Andrew '92 may be a bit of a technicality. 1992 featured a subtropical storm in April. At the time, subtropical storms went unnamed, but were still documented, unlike today when the NHC names them.

Ava 1973 in the East Pacific as well.

So to recap:

- Ophelia
- Ava
- Anita
- Allen
- Andrew
- Damrey
- Nepartak
Quoting 43. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Somebody needs to turn the calendar to October. It's too freaking hot. Currently 96/70 at my house, down from the 101/72 a few hours ago.
just think we still have peak summer yet too pass 35 days from now it may get even hotter yet
Quoting 45. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just think we still have peak summer yet too pass 35 days from now it may get even hotter yet
We basically just entered the Dog Days of Summer a few days ago.
Quoting 46. Climate175:

We basically just entered the Dog Days of Summer a few days ago.
I think summer season from jun 21 till sept 23 is like 91 days I think dog days of summer run from july 15 till aug 31
Quoting 47. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think summer season from jun 21 till sept 23 is like 91 days I think dog days of summer run from aug 15 till aug 31
I heard from Jul 3rd-Aug 11th for Dog Days, but the Aug 15th-31st might seem to make the most sense with the seasonal lag.
June 2016 CO2

406.81
parts per million (ppm)

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (NOAA-ESRL)

Preliminary data released July 5, 2016
Quoting 49. Patrap:


that thing decoupled itself very well if I say so myself
Link Mark Sudduth's Latest Tropical Update Video.
Greetings from St. Thomas!

It's 88, feeling like 93, and scattered clouds around this late afternoon.

We've finally had a little bit of rain, with June giving us 2 inches and an inch so far this month. Not much but the roof pulls a lot of water into the cistern as long as the mangos stay out of the way! Have a neighbor coming over tomorrow to clean things out.

Just killing a little time here before I head off to work. Working at my favourite bar on the island. If you are ever down this way, stop in and see us! I will give her a plug here:

Link

Let it load and you will see a .... don't know what it's called.... but it pans Betsy's and yours truly is sitting there, by the back wall, toasting with my friends. I'm the one on the right.

Life's been a roller coaster these days and am way behind in correspondence with friends. Honest, will get back to you soon.

Hoping all is well with everyone!!

Lindy
The Atlantic right now....
Quoting 24. Patrap:

Hunting Hugo
In September of 1989, a NOAA hurricane hunter airplane intercepted Hurricane Hugo as it approached the Caribbean islands, just before Hugo's destructive rampage through the Caribbean and South Carolina. The crew of the airplane were the first people to encounter the mighty hurricane--and very nearly became its first victims. The mission remains the most harrowing flight ever conducted by the NOAA hurricane hunters. I served as flight meteorologist on that flight, and feel fortunate indeed to be able to tell the story.

— Dr. Jeff Masters — Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground


Ahh, Hugo. Interestingly I'll be spending the next week in one of the few ocean front Isle of Palms (just north of Charleston) homes that survived Hugo. We've rented it 7-8 years in a row and were shocked to discover it was built just before Hugo.
Quoting 21. AldreteMichael:

"The Atlantic has had two cases where the first named storm of the year made it to Cat 5--Hurricane Allen in 1980, and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (thanks go to WU member Tcwx2 for reminding me of Andrew)."

Uhh. Dr. Masters. Why did you need reminded of Hurricane Andrew? Didn't you almost die flying into that thing as a hurricane hunter?
Andrew was operationally a cat 4 which was later re-analysed. However, I think it was Gilbert the doc flew into.
EDIT: Nope - it was Hugo, the following year....
Lindy, looks like a hoot. That is a good crowd! Blazing hot here in SC.

Quoting 53. LindyVirginIslander:

Greetings from St. Thomas!

It's 88, feeling like 93, and scattered clouds around this late afternoon.

We've finally had a little bit of rain, with June giving us 2 inches and an inch so far this month. Not much but the roof pulls a lot of water into the cistern as long as the mangos stay out of the way! Have a neighbor coming over tomorrow to clean things out.

Just killing a little time here before I head off to work. Working at my favourite bar on the island. If you are ever down this way, stop in and see us! I will give her a plug here:

Link

Let it load and you will see a .... don't know what it's called.... but it pans Betsy's and yours truly is sitting there, by the back wall, toasting with my friends. I'm the one on the right.

Life's been a roller coaster these days and am way behind in correspondence with friends. Honest, will get back to you soon.

Hoping all is well with everyone!!

Lindy
Quoting 20. nash36:



Not likely, if this huge heat ridge stays in place over the E coast. Let's hope the pattern changes by then.
Usually there is some modulation in the first half of August, but the change isn't always in our favor, plus who knows what the new normal is going to be like?
Miracles are nice, and can happen, but personally I suggest timely preparation...
From Houston-Galveston NWS office:

Quoting 53. LindyVirginIslander:

Greetings from St. Thomas!

It's 88, feeling like 93, and scattered clouds around this late afternoon.

We've finally had a little bit of rain, with June giving us 2 inches and an inch so far this month.


Honestly it would be OK if 3 inches of rain had fallen since june 1st... Because what we actually got on St Barths and also St Martin is at best, yes at best, 3 times less.
Yes, June 2016 was one hot month across the US:

Quoting 62. Neapolitan:

Yes, June 2016 was one hot month across the US:





just a little july is yet done august yet to come
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for:
WATCH YELLOW WARNING RED


Look at the typhoon blow up over China, going to worsen the floods :


68. SLU
Quoting 61. CaribBoy:



Honestly it would be OK if 3 inches of rain had fallen since june 1st... Because what we actually got on St Barths and also St Martin is at best, yes at best, 3 times less.


Sad to hear you struggling with the rain again this year. Hopefully as we get to August the waves will be stronger and bring more rain.
.


The taste of tea is changing—and generally for the worse if left unmanaged," declares ethnobotanist Selena Ahmed, an assistant professor of sustainable food systems at Montana State University. Ahmed is the project lead of a research group from Tufts University in Massachusetts studying the effect of climate change on tea. And not only is flavor being compromised, but ultimately, due to erratic precipitation and extreme temperatures, "there are [fewer] areas suitable for [growing] high quality tea" around the world, she finishes. ..................................

Too Much Rain Is Dulling the Flavor of Tea

Global warming has brought unseasonally high levels of rainfall in parts of the world. Because the atmosphere’s water-holding limit increases by about 4 percent for every one degree Fahrenheit rise in temperature, extreme precipitation is more likely when a storm passes through a warmer atmosphere holding more water. These places include major tea producing areas like Japan, China’s Yunnan province, and Assam and Darjeeling in India. Tea plants can only take a certain threshold of rain, and in all of these areas, plants are being pushed past their precipitation limits.

"For tea, when there’s too much rain, there’s a dilution effect of the secondary metabolites," Ahmed explains, referencing the compounds that tea drinkers value—like flavor, antioxidant properties, and caffeine levels.


Link

For future reference Dr. Masters flight into Hugo story is always at the bottom of this entry under recommended links.

;-)

Healthy looking blob moving off African coast.
Quoting 57. BahaHurican:

Andrew was operationally a cat 4 which was later re-analysed. However, I think it was Gilbert the doc flew into.
EDIT: Nope - it was Hugo, the following year....
Dr. Masters did fly into Gilbert...It was on a NOVA program titled HURRICANE!.....Link
Quoting 62. Neapolitan:

Yes, June 2016 was one hot month across the US:



I wouldn't be suprised if In 2050 this level of warmth will be remembered as just a normal June.
2nd half of July should not be as quiet in the Atlantic.
The NMME is showing conditions favourable for Caribbean tracking storms in August (Dean/Charley etc):



September looks to favour more of an out to sea track with Bermuda in the firing line:



And October looks like a lot of Gulf mischeif:



It certainly seems more likely this year that a hurricane or perhaps a major hurricane will make landfall in places that haven't seen one in a little while.
Quoting 67. MahFL:

Look at the typhoon blow up over China, going to worsen the floods :


Rapid scan floater, loop until July 09, 0119 UTC :

(RAMMB-CIRA sat. imagery Link)
Maybe there will be tornadoes too.
Quoting 75. unknowncomic:

2nd half of July should not be as quiet in the Atlantic.

Yeah we heard that one before....The MJO was suppose to be here in early July..never happened...then mid July which looks like its not going to happen...and it seems that most models are not even remotely excited about late July..which I doubt is going to feature anything.If you notice the models keep the most favorable upward motion over the east pacific which is why they show storm after storm and usually when the east pacific is active the Atlantic is quiet.....Looks like the Atlantic will not have anything until Mid-August (unless the the storm on the Euro develops) but for the most part expect a dull July.
Hoping for the right conditions to fly the kite tomorrow as we might attach the go pro if we get some boomers out over the lake.

Waterspout season is here.

Quoting 55. eljefe711:



Ahh, Hugo. Interestingly I'll be spending the next week in one of the few ocean front Isle of Palms (just north of Charleston) homes that survived Hugo. We've rented it 7-8 years in a row and were shocked to discover it was built just before Hugo.
I was in my early 20's when Hugo hit here. I had not lived here long but have never left and never want anything like that again. Charleston was just awarded the best city in the world, we pulled together and fixed it. We are strong and tough!

after being in the high 80's for almost a week, now back over 90, 90.9 to be exact. average is 92/63(KRAL)
Quoting 28. Tcwx2:

Latest Euro:



Claudette 2.0?
Quoting 68. SLU:



Sad to hear you struggling with the rain again this year. Hopefully as we get to August the waves will be stronger and bring more rain.


Hopefully :) Since 2013, no year has reached average.

According to our weather history several dry years in a row are not exceptional. But now enough is enough.
Quoting 81. PedleyCA:


after being in the high 80's for almost a week, now back over 90, 90.9 to be exact. average is 92/63(KRAL)


At my place the high was 89 and low this morning was 59......pretty decent!
Quoting 76. Envoirment:

The NMME is showing conditions favourable for Caribbean tracking storms in August (Dean/Charley etc):



September looks to favour more of an out to sea track with Bermuda in the firing line:



And October looks like a lot of Gulf mischeif:



It certainly seems more likely this year that a hurricane or perhaps a major hurricane will make landfall in places that haven't seen one in a little while.

Perhaps some increased activity in the Centeral Atlantic too.
86. IDTH



So what was that about the PDO controlling the ENSO?

Quoting 81. PedleyCA:


after being in the high 80's for almost a week, now back over 90, 90.9 to be exact. average is 92/63(KRAL)




You know, I sometimes wonder how on Earth I dealt with So. Calif! Especially growing up in Rancho Mirage (San Diego, when I lived there [then] was totally temperate and bearable). But looking at your temps, is a nightmare to me...and here when it's over 75' and more than 40% humidity are a nightmare! haha Oh, guess I've just gotten wimpier to heat with age! :P haha
Quoting 87. mitthbevnuruodo:





You know, I sometimes wonder how on Earth I dealt with So. Calif! Especially growing up in Rancho Mirage (San Diego, when I lived there [then] was totally temperate and bearable). But looking at your temps, is a nightmare to me...and here when it's over 75' and more than 40% humidity are a nightmare! haha Oh, guess I've just gotten wimpier to heat with age! :P haha

You just have to deal with whatever location you are in or move to a location more to your liking. I have lived in SoCal since 1961 and wouldn't want to be anywhere else. Maybe Bishop or Lake Isabella, but that is a whole other issue. Good Climate but a colder version of it...

EPAC still rolling along.....
Quoting 82. HurricaneFan:


Claudette 2.0?


Looks like it.
Quoting 88. PedleyCA:


You just have to deal with whatever location you are in or move to a location more to your liking. I have lived in SoCal since 1961 and wouldn't want to be anywhere else. Maybe Bishop or Lake Isabella, but that is a whole other issue. Good Climate but a colder version of it...



Yes, one thing I have been lucky with, is the opportunity to move to climates I prefer. I don't know if it was something I made so much effort to make it happen, or was lucky to have the opportunity (combination of both likely as I never dismiss luck with any decision actually working in the end), but am so glad to have been able to get north a few times in the effort. Don't know how much further north I need to go these days and upcoming days/years to stay in cool climes though :/

Tell ya though, sure miss some things about So. Calif though :( But just can't stand hot weather
Quoting 61. CaribBoy:



Honestly it would be OK if 3 inches of rain had fallen since june 1st... Because what we actually got on St Barths and also St Martin is at best, yes at best, 3 times less.


Sorry, just got off my shift and am now winding down. Thank goodness this job is only temporary. Don't think I could do it all the time! I'm really more an administrative-type person!

I've been looking at your posts and have seen how your island is browning up. I feel for you.

(hate to tell you that I had to wait half an hour while the rain fell before I could walk home!)

-L
Quoting 86. IDTH:




So what was that about the PDO controlling the ENSO?




That is a weird hot cold, hot cold, leapfroging in the ocean. What's that about?
I am looking forward to the typhoon reconnaissance missions. I am a little bit worried about Japanese as these typhoons are not like that sh.t you are chasing in the Atlantic, the only really strong storm in 10 years they have chased is Patricia in Epac. Wpac is meant to produce monsters, flying to those is extremely scary.
Los Angeles has chalked up yet another dreary milestone in its growing almanac of drought.

On Wednesday, experts at the National Weather Service confirmed that the last five years have been the driest ever documented in downtown L.A. since official record keeping began almost 140 years ago.


Link
China -

The National Meteorological Center has issued another heavy rain alert, as a strong storm system moves inland along the Yangtze River. The weather system could trigger more flash floods in Sichuan province in southwest China. The region could get another 400 millimeters of rain in the next few days. That is twice the amount of rainfall that the region received during the same period last year.

Link
hope they put up a floater area offshore carolinas
Quoting 75. unknowncomic:

2nd half of July should not be as quiet in the Atlantic.


possibly, the GFS shows nothing in the basin by July 25th. The real season might start in August this year.
I just want a long track Cape Verde storm lol
Been a while.
sleeper atlantic season? i doubt it. instead of cyclones we will be keeping an eye out tropical waves as they cross the atlantic. nail biters.
A textbook example of "bombification"

Watch Nepartak grow from thunderstorm to super typhoon in two minutes

This video was created using imagery from Japan’s Himawari-8 satellite, which monitors weather over the West Pacific Ocean. In each frame, the typhoon is centered in the video, which provides a unique perspective on the storm’s formation and development.

Link
Landfall in China -
More than 100 trains had to be cancelled after 250 mm (10 inches) of rain fell in about four hours in the nearby city of Putian, where nearly 23,000 people have fanned out to check the overstrained waterworks, it added.

Read more: Link

Blob off the Carolinas. (Where's presslord? :) )


Southern Reef Kelp Forest being wiped out by marine heatwaves

U Tube


Australia%u2019s Other Great Reef Is Also Screwed

While the world panics about the Great Barrier Reef, an even larger and more valuable habitat is collapsing under our noses.

The same events are happening elsewhere in the world. In Europe and Japan, kelp forests have also been pushed towards the poles by rising temperatures. %u201CAll over the world, organisms are migrating to stay within their preferred environmental conditions,%u201D says Gretta Pecl from the University of Tasmania. %u201CWe are now experiencing the largest climate-driven redistribution of species since the last [Ice Age].%u201D She adds that while scientists know a fair bit about how organisms move in response to gradually increasing temperatures, the kelp story reveals that a single extreme event can have a dramatic effect.

%u201CWernberg and colleagues have captured the moment that shifting climate drove the kelp bus off the cliff, and charted the way into a brave new uncertain ocean future,%u201D says Byrnes.

Link
/
Quoting 103. Grothar:

Blob off the Carolinas. (Where's presslord? :) )




It's got an anticyclone.
Quoting 106. Chicklit:


It's got an anticyclone.

Quoting 106. Chicklit:


It's got an anticyclone.



Hey, Chicklit!!! Happy Saturday. How you doing?
Taiwan for the most part has a climate similar to Florida, no?
Quoting 103. Grothar:

Blob off the Carolinas. (Where's presslord? :) )






I saw it 1st
Quoting 74. MrTornadochase:


I wouldn't be suprised if In 2050 this level of warmth will be remembered as just a normal June.


It already is, unfortunately. 3-5 degrees above normal, and people comment on how comfortable it is. The whole boiling frog analogy in action...
Womp wahhhhhh'...


June 2016 CO2

406.81
parts per million (ppm)

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (NOAA-ESRL)

Preliminary data released July 5, 2016
Celia doesn't look so bad. Anyone think it will Rapidly Intensify?
Quoting 93. AldreteMichael:



That is a weird hot cold, hot cold, leapfroging in the ocean. What's that about?

TIW or Tropical Instability Waves. It's somewhat common during Northern Hemisphere summer & fall when transitioning to La Nina. It's caused by the contrast in temperatures and currents at the equator under these conditions. Coming from such an extreme El Nino seems to be amplifying the effect. The eddies move to the west and are about 700miles apart.

Here's a better look at the TIW with the currents animated and the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly showing at earth.nullschool.
For some perspective on how fast we are and have warmed due to burning fossil fuels, we have had 33 straight unbroken years of monthly global warm biased temperature's.


That's 396 straight months since the globe saw a single month with a global cool bias.

Food for thought.


Fierce thunderstorms again for me last night Gro. That must be the culprit over water. Last 3 nights we have had gust fronts. Last night sounded like a freight train and it woke us up. Lots of debris around; broken limbs, pinecones, AGW denialists, etc.

Quoting 103. Grothar:

Blob off the Carolinas. (Where's presslord? :) )



Quoting 113. 62901IL:

Celia doesn't look so bad. Anyone think it will Rapidly Intensify?



WTPZ44 KNHC 091445
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016

The center of Celia is moving over warmer water west of the cool
wake of Hurricane Blas. In response, the central dense overcast has
become much better defined with cloud tops colder than -80C just
south of the center. In addition, recent microwave images suggest a
small mid-level eye is forming under the overcast. Subjective
satellite intensity estimates are 45 kt from SAB and 55 kt from
TAFB, and there was a recent CIMMS AMSU estimate of 80 kt. The
initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, and this could be
conservative.

Celia has continued to accelerate and the initial motion is now
280/13. A westward motion south of a building subtropical ridge is
expected to continue for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a
west-northwestward motion as the storm approaches a break in the
ridge. The guidance remains tightly clustered and the new forecast
track is near the center of the guidance envelope near the various
consensus models. The new track is a little faster than the
previous track based on current trends and the guidance.

Celia should be in an environment of light vertical wind shear for
the next five days, so the intensity forecast is dependent mainly
on sea surface temperatures. The cyclone is expected to move
over SSTs near 28C for the next 48 hours or so, and steady to
possibly rapid strengthening is expected. After that, the SSTs
gradually decrease along the forecast track until they are near 25C
at 120 hours. This should cause Celia to gradually weaken. The new
intensity forecast shows a faster intensification than the previous
forecast, with Celia becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours. The
forecast from 48-120 hours is unchanged from the previous forecast.
Overall, the intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS
model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 14.4N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 14.8N 119.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 14.8N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 14.8N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 14.9N 125.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 16.0N 129.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 19.0N 137.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Quoting 109. Tazmanian:




I saw it 1st


Quoting 116. HaoleboySurfEC:

Fierce thunderstorms again for me last night Gro. That must be the culprit over water. Last 3 nights we have had gust fronts. Last night sounded like a freight train and it woke us up. Lots of debris around; broken limbs, pinecones, AGW denialists, etc.




LOL!

The Gulf sure is quiet,,,,hope it stays that way..
Quoting 116. HaoleboySurfEC:

Fierce thunderstorms again for me last night Gro. That must be the culprit over water. Last 3 nights we have had gust fronts. Last night sounded like a freight train and it woke us up. Lots of debris around; broken limbs, pinecones, AGW denialists, etc.




Long-range forecasts said it would be a much wetter week. The storms all occurred around the same time too. I was driving two days ago in one of them.
Typhoon Nepartak: More than 400,000 people forced to flee as tropical storm strikes eastern China
Posted about an hour ago
The remains of super-typhoon Nepartak has made landfall in China's eastern Fujian province, bringing high winds and heavy rain, and forcing the relocation of hundreds of thousands of people.
At least 420,000 people in four cities including the capital Fuzhou have been urgently relocated, local media reported, while more than 300 high-speed trains, almost 400 flights, and nearly 5,000 buses have also been cancelled.
Authorities did not say whether there had been any deaths or injuries.
Nepartak was expected to "cause impact on the entire province with severe wind and rains", the Fujian Meteorological Administration said.
The storm hit land in Fujian province just before 2:00pm (local time) on Saturday, lashing Shishi city with winds of around 100 kilometres per hour.
More than 250mm of rain fell in about four hours early on Saturday in the nearby city of Putian, where nearly 23,000 people have fanned out to check over-strained water management systems. ...


Weekend greetings from Germany which is currently experiencing at least two warm/hot days until temps should go down again next week.
Movement of the ITCZ getting ready for August. The waves have to come off of West Africa at the same latitude as Senegal to really be rolling.
Hong Kong records hottest day in almost half a century as Typhoon Nepartak nears
Several districts including Shau Kei Wan, Wong Tai Sin and Sha Tin see the mercury climb to over 37 degrees on Saturday, with Happy Valley the hottest, at 37.9
PUBLISHED : Saturday, 09 July, 2016, 9:14pm

Quoting 119. Grothar:





LOL!


Greetings Gro..I sent you some WU Mail.
127. Tcwx2
Everyone check out my first blog entry here: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/Tcwx2/worldwide- tropical-update
Quoting 125. hydrus:




Here comes the blob train

Forecast for Indian Hills( just north of me(1/2M)) is 95F, normal is 92/63, low this AM was 65.3F, yesterday was 90.9F....
SURFS UP...

We are Getting BLASted....
Quoting 130. Climate175:



The word "featureless" comes to mind. This will probably change per the norm by September.
Quoting 129. PedleyCA:


Forecast for Indian Hills( just north of me(1/2M)) is 95F, normal is 92/63, low this AM was 65.3F, yesterday was 90.9F....


Low was 60 this am.........going to 90's.........it's all good! Could be much warmer.....July has been normal to a little on the cool side. I hope them trofs keep hanging out by the west coast.
Fresh partial ASCAT of the blob off Carolina..


Blowoff from Blas streaming across the Central CA coast, producing mainly high clouds thus far. Unusually strong low off the Pac NW keeping a quasi-stationary front/deformation zone aligned across NorCal. A triple of jet maxes over the North Pacific, more characteristic of winter, will be diving into that low. Coastal SSTs near normal.
Imagery from RAMMB/CIRA - Link (Hi-8 sat. - July 9, 1540 UTC - screenshot)

============
It looks like intense convection has dimished over E. China's coast since yesterday, but the former annular cyclone shows good resistance to weakening/dissipation, as it's managed to retain a circular look, small banding features and also some sort of a convective core (albeit much, much weakened). I guess severe wind gusts will remain a threat only for the people living and working by the coast from now on. About precautionary measures, is it me or have the Chinese authorities been regularly organizing mass evacs in China since last year because of large-scale extreme weather events ? I hope it will continue to prove as effective as it has seemed to be to reduce the number of fatalities there.
Short video of damage in Taiwan
Quoting 115. Patrap:
For some perspective on how fast we are and have warmed due to burning fossil fuels, we have had 33 straight unbroken years of monthly global warm biased temperature's.

That's 396 straight months since the globe saw a single month with a global cool bias.

Food for thought.


West Antarctica : "Houston, we have a problem. It has to do with global sea-level rise, to be precise."
Quoting 101. RobertWC:

A textbook example of "bombification"

Watch Nepartak grow from thunderstorm to super typhoon in two minutes

This video was created using imagery from Japan%u2019s Himawari-8 satellite, which monitors weather over the West Pacific Ocean. In each frame, the typhoon is centered in the video, which provides a unique perspective on the storm%u2019s formation and development.

Link


That's a great video, Robert. I especially liked the eyewall's building part with these pulsating (breathing ?) bursts of convection, and later the EWRC.
On a large scale, the Gulf of Mexico appears to have the warmest water in the Atlantic Basin right now with an average temperature around 87 degrees.


A rare “blob” of unusually warm water that did massive damage to California’s marine life has reemerged

It’s not a creature from a horror flick, but it might as well be for marine scientists. The blob was first noticed on the surface of the Pacific in 2013 (pdf), and some weather experts declared it dead last December. But the blob isn’t dead—it’s just retreated to deeper parts of the ocean, according to recent findings.

The Canadian Coast Guard regularly measures the ocean’s temperature at different depths off the coast of British Columbia, and found that rather than sitting at the surface of the water, the blob is now hovering between 150 and 200 meters (about 500 to 650 feet) below. “The residual effect of the blob is still there,” Canadian scientist Ian Perry told CBC News this week.


Link
Quoting 138. Sfloridacat5:

On a large scale, the Gulf of Mexico appears to have the warmest water in the Atlantic Basin right now with an average temperature around 87 degrees.




This is one of the warmest July's I can remember in a decade in NW FL. Not surprised the Gulf is steaming.
– Vanishing Act: Why Insects Are
Declining and Why It Matters


Insect populations are declining dramatically in many parts of the world, recent studies show. Researchers say various factors, from monoculture farming to habitat loss, are to blame for the plight of insects, which are essential to agriculture and ecosystems.

Every spring since 1989, entomologists have set up tents in the meadows and woodlands of the Orbroicher Bruch nature reserve and 87 other areas in the western German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The tents act as insect traps and enable the scientists to calculate how many bugs live in an area over a full summer period. Recently, researchers presented the results of their work to parliamentarians from the German Bundestag, and the findings were alarming: The average biomass of insects caught between May and October has steadily decreased from 1.6 kilograms (3.5 pounds) per trap in 1989 to just 300 grams (10.6 ounces) in 2014.

“The decline is dramatic and depressing and it affects all kinds of insects, including butterflies, wild bees, and hoverflies,” says Martin Sorg, an entomologist from the Krefeld Entomological Association involved in running the monitoring project. …


Link
Afternoon all. Currently partly cloudy and a bit hazy, 91 degrees, feels like 105 in Nassau... another cool tree at the beach sort of day...

Quoting 103. Grothar:

Blob off the Carolinas. (Where's presslord? :) )





No doubt Press is rushing to bolt down his lawn chairs.
144. flsky
You're fortunate it cools off so nicely overnight. I wish that was the case in FL.

Quoting 129. PedleyCA:


Forecast for Indian Hills( just north of me(1/2M)) is 95F, normal is 92/63, low this AM was 65.3F, yesterday was 90.9F....
Quoting 140. hurcoloid:


yes we need to watch the first tropical LOW to go in there..boom it will explode.
Quoting 101. RobertWC:

A textbook example of "bombification"

Watch Nepartak grow from thunderstorm to super typhoon in two minutes

This video was created using imagery from Japan’s Himawari-8 satellite, which monitors weather over the West Pacific Ocean. In each frame, the typhoon is centered in the video, which provides a unique perspective on the storm’s formation and development.

Link

That's darned impressive... plus it's our Angela. Good stuff.
Quoting 114. Skyepony:


TIW or Tropical Instability Waves. It's somewhat common during Northern Hemisphere summer & fall when transitioning to La Nina. It's caused by the contrast in temperatures and currents at the equator under these conditions. Coming from such an extreme El Nino seems to be amplifying the effect. The eddies move to the west and are about 700miles apart.

Here's a better look at the TIW with the currents animated and the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly showing at earth.nullschool.
there was a decent blog post about this topic just last week.
Quoting 132. BayFog:


The word "featureless" comes to mind. This will probably change per the norm by September.
Mine was "peaceful" ... aka the calm before ...
:-)
Quoting 138. Sfloridacat5:

On a large scale, the Gulf of Mexico appears to have the warmest water in the Atlantic Basin right now with an average temperature around 87 degrees.



Just as hot on the Great Bahama Bank between Eleuthera and Miami....
148. IDTH
I'm hoping that the MJO does not end being here by the peak of the season or else we're going to have some really bad storms traversing through the basin. That Bermuda high is at a point where it could steer storms into some of the most favorable waters in the entire basin. The Cooling has resumed across the nino regions and the Atlantic is starting to warm up even more now.

Quoting 148. IDTH:

I'm hoping that the MJO does not end being here by the peak of the season or else we're going to have some really bad storms traversing through the basin. That Bermuda high is at a point where it could steer storms into some of the most favorable waters in the entire basin. The Cooling has resumed across the nino regions and the Atlantic is starting to warm up even more now.


Also for the fact the EPAC is spitting storms like a cannon with no rest over there with the MJO currently there, makes me wonder for next month and September.
I'm really feeling for all you folks in the southeast and all the hot weather you're getting.

Meanwhile here in the Willamette Valley of Oregon after a warmer than average May and June with several record breaking hot days July as been on the cool side with plenty of precipitation. The highs lately have been in low 70s although it will start pushing 80 toward the middle of next week. Overnight lows are in the mid 50s. And just to rub it in a bit humidity during the heat of the day has been around 50%.

It's a bit unusual so far because normally after the 4th of July it gets sunny and warm to hot the rest of July, August and most of September with maybe 5-10 days with some precipitation. We'll see what happens but I don't think July will be anywhere near a record hottest in the PNW this year.
Quoting 143. DeepSeaRising:



No doubt Press is rushing to bolt down his lawn chairs.




Presslord is chilling on his sailboat this weekend. Talked to him yesterday. Been busy since portight signed letters of agreement with FEMA and the American Red Cross last summer.

If some of you would...please check out the port light featured blog and leave a comment and a greeting to a wonderful woman named Jessica who did a special guest entry for port light..as she has been a huge supporter.


Fellow WUer Celebrating Upcoming Birthday by Fundraising for Portlight!
By: Portlight , 4:36 PM CDT on June 15, 2016
First shot of Jupiter by Juno !

... Nah, just kiddin' : it's a powerful extra-tropical storm south of Australia (Earth.nullschool.net). Screenshot, 1910 UTC. Himawari-8 RAMMB/CIRA Link
153. beell


Africa taking part in various beach replenishment programs across the western Atlantic nations.

155. vanwx
re 93
The wiggle is a karman wave street.
Tropical wave nearing 60w and the Lesser Antilles Islands, showing signs of something.
Quoting 147. BahaHurican:

Just as hot on the Great Bahama Bank between Eleuthera and Miami....

I was in Cocoa Beach last week and the water was the warmest I've ever felt it there at the end of June.

Here in S.W. Florida the water temperature is 90 degrees. The west coast of Florida has some of the warmest water in the Basin right now.

FLZ162-165-092015-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF...BOCA GRANDE...ENGLEWOOD...
FORT MYERS BEACH...SANIBEL ISLAND
407 AM EDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93.
BEACH WINDS.........NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURF................1 FOOT OR LESS.
WATER CONDITION.....SMOOTH INCREASING TO A LIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WATER TEMPERATURE...90 DEGREES AT FORT MYERS BEACH.
UVI INDEX...........EXTREME.
LIGHTNING THREAT....INFREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW RISK... STRONG CURRENTS CAN OCCUR NEAR
PIERS AND JETTIES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION
DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.
Finally some welcomed showers! There was no tropical wave, just normal weather for july.

Quoting 158. CaribBoy:

Finally some welcomed showers! There was no tropical wave, just normal weather for july.




Send that over this way.....lol
Vorticity is showing up at the 850mb level and 700mb level for the wave nearing the 60w longitude.
Quoting 92. LindyVirginIslander:



Sorry, just got off my shift and am now winding down. Thank goodness this job is only temporary. Don't think I could do it all the time! I'm really more an administrative-type person!

I've been looking at your posts and have seen how your island is browning up. I feel for you.

(hate to tell you that I had to wait half an hour while the rain fell before I could walk home!)

-L


Hi Lindy. We finally got some rain (around half a inch), and trees already look happier...although more showers would sure be welcome.

St Martin measured up to one inch, which is nice.

Now the sun is shining in a clear sky... but it looks like more moisture is coming from the east.

Feast or Famine here in Central Texas. We have had temperatures in the upper 90's-lower 100's for the past month and a half with heat index's in the 100-115 F range. I wish the big ridge of high pressure would break down and we could get some rain.


Waters need to warm more off the coast of western Africa before we can see more tropical development.
Quoting 162. hotroddan:

Feast or Famine here in Central Texas. We have had temperatures in the upper 90's-lower 100's for the past month and a half with heat index's in the 100-115 F range. I wish the big ridge of high pressure would break down and we could get some rain.


"Wish in one hand , and ............ in the other".
"If wishes, and ands, were pots and pans the whole world would be a kitchen"

109F here in Lubbock 2 days ago . Crushed the old record by 6F degrees. Dew points are into the 60's here. Never seen a high like this one, storms pop up every afternoon , like bad pop corn in the machine. If you're under one, it rains like hell, with grape sized hail, for 5 or 8 mins.

Nothing like Austin, though where one wears swim fins around the house .
The June numbers from Las Vegas crushed every category , really amazing stuff in this tweet :

Night time highs
Days over 100F
The average highs and lows
Days above 105F ............................. 19

The old normal was 98.7F.


Records tend to be broken when natural variation runs in the same direction as #climatechange - as Las Vegas knows!



Link

Several reports coming about June in the Southwest.

The Las Vegas report below

LA reports that the last 5 years were the driest in 140 years

%u201D Coachella Valley experiencing the worst drought on record %u201C

Lake Mead hits it's lowest pool ever



All of them made me think of the Joshua Trees .

PUBLISHED October 28, 2015

At Joshua Tree National Park in California%u2019s Mojave Desert, these tough, gnarled plants are threatened by climate change. A survey of the park found few or no young trees in roughly 30 percent of their range.

Link


168. beell

Today's 18Z GFS 700-400 mb RH.
171. beell
Quoting 155. vanwx:

re 93
The wiggle is a karman wave street.


No. This is Kelvin Helmholtz instability... two fluids of different densities (in this case, SS temperature) and a velocity/directional difference (shear) across the interface between the two fluids.

Compared to Karman vortex street:...unsteady separation of flow of a fluid around blunt bodies (like an island).

Barbados and the rest of central windards are in for a rough night. Large area of thunderstorms and gusty winds will affect the islands later tonight. Although there is weak 850mb vorticity, development is not expected from this wave at the moment
The dead pool at Lake Meade , and all these intense heat and drought reports.
Makes me think Vegas has a new straw to the bottom of the glass, But no power to keep the bathroom lights on.
174. SLU
Quoting 172. stoormfury:

Barbados and the rest of central windards are in for a rough night. Large area of thunderstorms and gusty winds will affect the islands later tonight. Although there is weak 850mb vorticity, development is not expected from this wave at the moment



Based on cloud movements, I estimated a wind surge of about 35mph with this wave but the winds could be even stronger if the thunderstorms remain intense.

Or waves hobble through the MDR at low latitude, only to explode in the Caribbean, Bahamas or GOM. I think we will see homegrown fireworks begin in late July. The steering is currently not favoring fish storms. I think our luck of a major not hitting the CONUS runs out in 2016.

Quoting 164. hotroddan:



Waters need to warm more off the coast of western Africa before we can see more tropical development.
Good evening, all. Twave nearing 60w still trying to get something going in all that dry air? It may be even getting a little moisture boost out in front of it from (if you will) orographic-like lift as it approaches land. But the deadzone is ahead; the rule? Nothing formed before 60w is it (?) isn't likely to make it. Still, it's been an interesting twave to follow. Where's the calabash tree report from Trinidad? :-)
Quoting 177. Gearsts:


Not going to happen so expect a dead July ahead.GFS doesn't really develop anything.
Quoting 141. RobertWC:

%u2013 Vanishing Act: Why Insects Are
Declining and Why It Matters


Insect populations are declining dramatically in many parts of the world, recent studies show. Researchers say various factors, from monoculture farming to habitat loss, are to blame for the plight of insects, which are essential to agriculture and ecosystems.

Every spring since 1989, entomologists have set up tents in the meadows and woodlands of the Orbroicher Bruch nature reserve and 87 other areas in the western German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The tents act as insect traps and enable the scientists to calculate how many bugs live in an area over a full summer period. Recently, researchers presented the results of their work to parliamentarians from the German Bundestag, and the findings were alarming: The average biomass of insects caught between May and October has steadily decreased from 1.6 kilograms (3.5 pounds) per trap in 1989 to just 300 grams (10.6 ounces) in 2014.

%u201CThe decline is dramatic and depressing and it affects all kinds of insects, including butterflies, wild bees, and hoverflies,%u201D says Martin Sorg, an entomologist from the Krefeld Entomological Association involved in running the monitoring project. %u2026


Link
Climate change isn't going to pause or slow down....it's going to speed up.
180. vis0
Quoting 54. washingtonian115:

The Atlantic right now....

...still "busy"...
imgbox

CREDIT:: GETTY
On a crazy note -  to plug my theories, notice how ~3-4 days ago weather  did n all-of-sudden switch (IN THIS CASE Pac up, ATL down  ... other times it was the other wa,y the thing is that  these 14 to 17 day  periods opens a window for sudden changes),. Eye calls it "2WkAnom" for the 4 that still read my blog. Now back to the WxDynamics.
181. beell

(click for larger image)

It's SAL season. The basic concept and also the current synoptic.
As the heat low or "West African Monsoon" low intensifies, the low level westerlies (green dashed lines) also strengthen. Couple that with a strong, sprawling A/B ridge pushing right up to the northwest African coast, and dry, dusty northeast winds arise in the tight pressure gradient (black rectangle).

The moist (more dense) onshore monsoon westerlies undercut the gradient wind and the Saharan Air is elevated and spills out into the Atlantic (black dashed line).
182. vis0

Quoting 181. beell:


(click for larger image)

It's SAL season. The basic concept and also the current synoptic.
As the heat low or "West African Monsoon" low intensifies,the low level westerlies (green dashed lines) also strengthen. Couple that with a strong, sprawling A/B ridge pushing right up to the north west African coast, and dry, dusty northeast winds arise in the tight pressure gradient (black rectangle).

The moist (more dense) onshore monsoon westerlies undercut the gradient wind and the Saharan Air is elevated and spills out into the Atlantic (black dashed line).
i new ...uh... dat
Quoting 181. beell:


(click for larger image)

It's SAL season. The basic concept and also the current synoptic.
As the heat low or "West African Monsoon" low intensifies,the low level westerlies (green dashed lines) also strengthen. Couple that with a strong, sprawling A/B ridge pushing right up to the north west African coast, and dry, dusty northeast winds arise in the tight pressure gradient (black rectangle).

The moist (more dense) onshore monsoon westerlies undercut the gradient wind and the Saharan Air is elevated and spills out into the Atlantic (black dashed line).

Also, similar to the west coast of all continents, the alignment of the winds drives an upwelling of cooler water which creates a wall against the northward advance of warmer water from the south. That probably changes late in the season as changes in the midlatitudes due to the approach of Autumn change the orientation of the high pressure cell offshore, allowing the SSTs to rise further northward. A similar thing usually happens along the Baja Pacific coastline. The earlier start to the EPac tropical season compared to the EAtl is likely the result of an absence of an equivalent to the SAL. The early EPac storms don't have to wait for SSTs to warm northward without that inhibition, and they typically do form at a lower latitude early on.
Quoting 162. hotroddan:

Feast or Famine here in Central Texas. We have had temperatures in the upper 90's-lower 100's for the past month and a half with heat index's in the 100-115 F range. I wish the big ridge of high pressure would break down and we could get some rain.

Can you wait till Halloween
Quoting 181. beell:

>
It's SAL season. The basic concept and also the current synoptic.
As the heat low or "West African Monsoon" low intensifies,the low level westerlies (green dashed lines) also strengthen. Couple that with a strong, sprawling A/B ridge pushing right up to the north west African coast, and dry, dusty northeast winds arise in the tight pressure gradient (black rectangle).

The moist (more dense) onshore monsoon westerlies undercut the gradient wind and the Saharan Air is elevated and spills out into the Atlantic (black dashed line).

The moist air is more dense close to the surface, but actually less dense at altitude, similar to the dryline, giving a reversing slope to the air mass boundary, although once you get convection going, all that gets pretty mixed up anyway.
Quoting 153. beell:



Africa taking part in various beach replenishment programs across the western Atlantic nations.



Also fertilizer for enhanced growth of rainforests in the Americas.
188. beell
Quoting 183. BayFog:


Also, similar to the west coast of all continents, the alignment of the winds drives an upwelling of cooler water which creates a wall against the northward advance of warmer water from the south. That probably changes late in the season as changes in the midlatitudes due to the approach of Autumn change the orientation of the high pressure cell offshore, allowing the SSTs to rise further northward. A similar thing usually happens along the Baja Pacific coastline. The earlier start to the EPac tropical season compared to the EAtl is likely the result of an absence of an equivalent to the SAL. The early EPac storms don't have to wait for SSTs to warm northward without that inhibition, and they typically do form at a lower latitude early on.


Interesting idea (in bold) there, BayFog. Hmm...!

Of course, quite a bit of the SST variability in the Atlantic MDR is attributed to the strength/weakness of the trade winds. SAL is also thought to play a role in reducing sunlight to the ocean surface.



Quoting 174. SLU:



Based on cloud movements, I estimated a wind surge of about 35mph with this wave but the winds could be even stronger if the thunderstorms remain intense.




Just had some good gusts go through about an hour ago. It has since become relatively quiet. I would estimate between 30-40 mph gusts with some moderate rain for about an hour our so.

Link
...BLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY...
...CELIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...
Guess the NHC figured it would be easy to copy and paste here lol
That is one sneaky low trying to give its best tropical cyclone impression south of Newfoundland (upper right).


192. beell
Quoting 186. BayFog:


The moist air is more dense close to the surface, but actually less dense at altitude, similar to the dryline, giving a reversing slope to the air mass boundary, although once you get convection going, all that gets pretty mixed up anyway.


That's actually another part of the SAL issue. This warmer, elevated (isentropically lifted) SAL creates an inversion above the PBL and in many cases, it does not mix and "caps" or inhibits deep convection.
193. SLU
Quoting 189. LemieT:



Just had some good gusts go through about an hour ago. It has since become relatively quiet. I would estimate between 30-40 mph gusts with some moderate rain for about an hour our so.

Link


Unfortunately most of the clouds have warmed so the system is losing strength.
Quoting 193. SLU:



Unfortunately most of the clouds have warmed so the system is losing strength.


Yeah, I was hoping for a bit more but you have to take what you get in the ATL these days.
Quoting 192. beell:



That's actually another part of the SAL issue. This warmer, elevated (isentropically lifted) SAL creates an inversion above the PBL and in many cases, it does not mix and "caps" or inhibits deep convection.

Except where there's dynamics to force things, as in those easterly waves kicked up by the jet that forms along the dry-moist boundary over Africa.
Quoting 141. RobertWC:

– Vanishing Act: Why Insects Are
Declining and Why It Matters


Insect populations are declining dramatically in many parts of the world, recent studies show. Researchers say various factors, from monoculture farming to habitat loss, are to blame for the plight of insects, which are essential to agriculture and ecosystems.

Every spring since 1989, entomologists have set up tents in the meadows and woodlands of the Orbroicher Bruch nature reserve and 87 other areas in the western German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The tents act as insect traps and enable the scientists to calculate how many bugs live in an area over a full summer period. Recently, researchers presented the results of their work to parliamentarians from the German Bundestag, and the findings were alarming: The average biomass of insects caught between May and October has steadily decreased from 1.6 kilograms (3.5 pounds) per trap in 1989 to just 300 grams (10.6 ounces) in 2014.

“The decline is dramatic and depressing and it affects all kinds of insects, including butterflies, wild bees, and hoverflies,” says Martin Sorg, an entomologist from the Krefeld Entomological Association involved in running the monitoring project. …


Link

If it were only locusts, aphids and mosquitos, I think most could live with that. But we're in trouble without the bees.
I've published a blog:

Link
T/wave at11N/60W looking interesting, 850mb not as strong as earlier, but is entering an area of low shear!
Quoting 193. SLU:



Unfortunately most of the clouds have warmed so the system is losing strength.


Hopefully the convection will increase again later tonight as we get closer to dmax.
Quoting 194. LemieT:



Yeah, I was hoping for a bit more but you have to take what you get in the ATL these days.


The system was pretty healthy during the late afternoon hours... but after that dmin has arrived with its negative influence on convections.
The EPac is spitting them out regular-like right now. Here comes Darby:

"A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized
showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the
low moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph, away from
the coast of Mexico."
Waters in the Northern GOM have reached a scorching 31C...this is something to watch when we get into the peak of the season. AMO has been trending more in the positive direction over the past few weeks, with recent warming in the Natl and MDR. Once the MJO arrives and the SAL weakens we will start seeing some activity. I wonder if the Atlantic will open up big in August.
203. IDTH
Quoting 202. HurricaneFan:

Waters in the Northern GOM have reached a scorching 31C...this is something to watch when we get into the peak of the season. AMO has been trending more in the positive direction over the past few weeks, with recent warming in the Natl and MDR. Once the MJO arrives and the SAL weakens we will start seeing some activity. I wonder if the Atlantic will open up big in August.

I worry about August because I think that's when the MJO is finally going to make it's way into the Atlantic. I was thinking July was going to be bad but the MJO never came and the GFS has failed miserably with it's forecast of July so far.
Quoting 146. BahaHurican:

there was a decent blog post about this topic just last week.

Yeah, almost dug it up and linked it.

I'd been meaning to look at the Pacific Tropical Instability waves at ROTFS for weeks now. Earth.nullschool beautifully shows it but there is heat flux, salinity and such to look at as well. Finally did. Got carried away and wrote a blog on it.
206. vis0
tried to correct 2 important errors in the words used WxU would not accept the edit (wait after 30 clicks ~5 minutes)out the window it goes





























Quiet again in th Atlantic not that we are surprised
The US is smoking hot except for the extreme NW and ne
Seems like an all to familiar setup
Do people still look forward to summer?
normal summer here its always hot in the summer e cen florida
there are plenty bees here. they are swarming the blooming date palms
On July 10, 2005, Hurricane Dennis made landfall along the northern Gulf Coast between Gulf Breeze and Navarre Beach, FL. Wind gusts were recorded at 121MPH.

Hurricane Dennis had a small area of hurricane force winds, and it made landfall less than 10 months after Hurricane Ivan devastated the same area.

Interestingly, the compact hurricane had a large area of tropical storm force winds, and some of the highest storm surges occurred over 100 miles east of the landfall, in St. Marks, FL!
Quoting 202. HurricaneFan:

Waters in the Northern GOM have reached a scorching 31C...this is something to watch when we get into the peak of the season. AMO has been trending more in the positive direction over the past few weeks, with recent warming in the Natl and MDR. Once the MJO arrives and the SAL weakens we will start seeing some activity. I wonder if the Atlantic will open up big in August.
It will open up, once all the high pressure in the Atlantic, lifts North and the MDR pressures begin to lower, which should start to occur in the next 10 to 15 days, if the models are correct, plus the MJO should be in the area.
Re: Native Sun's comment.
Recognize his description of past indicators are classic, however with earth warming these indicators may not be applicable in the future. Florida central east coast weather for instance not as it should be in June and July.
215. MahFL
The MJO just does not want to come to the Atlantic :(.
islander~ You don't seem to agree with NWS about the heat..

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
834 AM EDT SUN JUL 3 2016

...June 2016 was Warmer than Normal Across East Central Florida...

The more persistent warmth led to monthly average temperatures that
ranged from 1.4 to 1.8 degrees above normal. These values ranked
this June in the top 10 warmest at all primary climate sites in
east central Florida
. more here

We broke the record high minimum at Melbourne yesterday.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
0500 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET IN MELBOURNE SATURDAY...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE SATURDAY JULY 9TH AT MELBOURNE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WAS 78 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD WARM RECORD LOW OF 77
WHICH WAS LAST SET IN 2007.

$$

ULRICH


Broke record by 2 degrees in Orlando yesterday..
0500 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

....RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET IN ORLANDO SATURDAY...

THE LOW TEMPERATURE SATURDAY JULY 9TH AT ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WAS 79 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD WARM RECORD LOW OF 77
WHICH WAS LAST SET IN 1985.

It's 9am & my PWS say 92.7F. You coming over to help with farm work today?
Quoting 208. 19N81W:

Quiet again in th Atlantic not that we are surprised
The US is smoking hot except for the extreme NW and ne
Seems like an all to familiar setup
Do people still look forward to summer?


::raises hand:: Seattle does. Our typical Summer weather is 75F and sunny from July 5 to Sept. This year Summer has yet to make it's appearance. Of course that only applies if you discount our extreme for even Summer heat we got in April and May.

In case you missed it, a very un seasonable low pressure system has been parked off the US PNW coast bringing clouds, rain and cooler than normal temps (in some cases record breaking lows) to the Pacific Northwest for most of July thus far. There's even been snow in the higher elevations.

Dr. Cliff Mass posted a blog post a few days ago that you can find here where he explains the setup in more detail.
Quoting 196. BayFog:


If it were only locusts, aphids and mosquitos, I think most could live with that. But we're in trouble without the bees.
Ive planted a lot of flowering plants etc around my house and the bee's have returned here full force,if they have their pollen to gather they are happy and probably reproduce accordingly along with a food source..trouble is, in cities etc everything is concrete,nothing there for them.
Blas is dying...


Celia is living.
if the bugs were dying why is everyone afraid of zika
Quoting 191. Hurricane1216:

That is one sneaky low trying to give its best tropical cyclone impression south of Newfoundland (upper right).




I bet it gets named as an unnamed tropical storm in the post-season analysis.
Quoting 221. NCHurricaneTracker69:


I bet it gets named as an unnamed tropical storm in the post-season analysis.


10 bucks that you're right.
Link
Found this to be very interesting.... and one that I believe is true. I do not think that Katrina was just a 125 mph hurricane when it made landfall... there is a lot of evidence to the contrary. I hope the NHC eventually does a reanalysis of Katrina like it did for Andrew.
Notice how the forecast of the MJO keeps getting pushed back and the arrival always seems one week away "same as it ever was"
Quoting 224. washingtonian115:

Notice how the forecast of the MJO keeps getting backed and the arrival always seems one week away "same as it ever was"


Atlantic has been a graveyard since the 2011 season. Notice how the East Pac just spits out hurricane after hurricane? Kinda getting ridiculous. Every year is a different excuse. 2012- too warm subtropics, 2013- something was messed up with the thermohaline circulation, 2014- ridiculous amounts of shear and SAL, 2015- monster el nino. What's it going to be this year? Not warm enough MDR?
Quoting 225. wunderweatherman123:


Atlantic has been a graveyard since the 2011 season. Notice how the East Pac just spits out hurricane after hurricane? Kinda getting ridiculous. Every year is a different excuse. 2012- too warm subtropics, 2013- something was messed up with the thermohaline circulation, 2014- ridiculous amounts of shear and SAL, 2015- monster el nino. What's it going to be this year? Not warm enough MDR?
The MJO seems to be stuck in the east pacific.It has been forecast to move east now for the past two weeks but hasn't done so.Looks to weaken as well when it "finally" moves in our basin,hints the models showing a dead July overall.When the CMC doesn't even forecast a storm you know the basin is dead.
Quoting 225. wunderweatherman123:


Atlantic has been a graveyard since the 2011 season. Notice how the East Pac just spits out hurricane after hurricane? Kinda getting ridiculous. Every year is a different excuse. 2012- too warm subtropics, 2013- something was messed up with the thermohaline circulation, 2014- ridiculous amounts of shear and SAL, 2015- monster el nino. What's it going to be this year? Not warm enough MDR?
Another dead season on the way.Great news for everyone!
Quoting 208. 19N81W:

Quiet again in th Atlantic not that we are surprised
The US is smoking hot except for the extreme NW and ne
Seems like an all to familiar setup
Do people still look forward to summer?


Here in Montana it is a cool and rainy day .... most Julys here used to be sweltering and very dry. Officially this area is shy of normal rainfall year-to-date, but many areas are still green. Usually the spring grass has browned off by this time.
Quoting 225. wunderweatherman123:


What's it going to be this year? Not warm enough MDR?


Not to worry; she will raise her big, ugly head soon enough. The heart of the season is straight ahead, and it only takes one.
230. IDTH
Quoting 224. washingtonian115:

Notice how the forecast of the MJO keeps getting pushed back and the arrival always seems one week away "same as it ever was"






Quoting 225. wunderweatherman123:


Atlantic has been a graveyard since the 2011 season. Notice how the East Pac just spits out hurricane after hurricane? Kinda getting ridiculous. Every year is a different excuse. 2012- too warm subtropics, 2013- something was messed up with the thermohaline circulation, 2014- ridiculous amounts of shear and SAL, 2015- monster el nino. What's it going to be this year? Not warm enough MDR?


You say that now but the MJO getting pushed back is much worse in my opinion than it being here in July. The only thing that could completely put a dent in this season is if we had nothing but sinking motion the entire year like 2013. I don't think that's going to happen though as the Atlantic 3 years prior to that spit out 19 named storms for three straight years. We've come off below average to average seasons since then and if my gut is telling me anything it's saying "just wait till August" and I don't think you'll have the same impression of the Atlantic that you had this month.

Also it takes longer for the Atlantic to get going than the east pacific:

Quoting 181. beell:


(click for larger image)

It's SAL season. The basic concept and also the current synoptic.
As the heat low or "West African Monsoon" low intensifies, the low level westerlies (green dashed lines) also strengthen. Couple that with a strong, sprawling A/B ridge pushing right up to the northwest African coast, and dry, dusty northeast winds arise in the tight pressure gradient (black rectangle).

The moist (more dense) onshore monsoon westerlies undercut the gradient wind and the Saharan Air is elevated and spills out into the Atlantic (black dashed line).


Quoting 183. BayFog:


Also, similar to the west coast of all continents, the alignment of the winds drives an upwelling of cooler water which creates a wall against the northward advance of warmer water from the south. That probably changes late in the season as changes in the midlatitudes due to the approach of Autumn change the orientation of the high pressure cell offshore, allowing the SSTs to rise further northward. A similar thing usually happens along the Baja Pacific coastline. The earlier start to the EPac tropical season compared to the EAtl is likely the result of an absence of an equivalent to the SAL. The early EPac storms don't have to wait for SSTs to warm northward without that inhibition, and they typically do form at a lower latitude early on.


SSTs are boiling east of the Windwards :)
Still watching the precarious twave now approaching 65w. Storms firing along the center of the axis, unrelated to land lift effects. Dry air slowly weakening out in front. Fairly low shear. Vorticity charts show little, but there's some apparent rotation trying to spin-up. A bit of convergence; not really notable, but diffluence staying above it indicating some effort to get going. Obviously, pressures aren't lowering enough, and it's in a sea of subsidence; but, it's still trying. No model support (I get that), but I'm an old-school blob watcher, and get things wrong more often than not. It's more likely to dissipate entirely, but sometimes these stubborn disturbances are the ones that creep up on us. If it keeps firing convection across that hot bath in the Caribbean, we may eventually see a SFC low form. Very interesting twave since about 30w.


Okay, today is July 10th.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 101016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 32W,
moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is
embedded in a mainly low moist environment from surface to 850 mb
as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. Meteosat imagery show Saharan
dry air and dust in the wave environment that along with strong
deep layer wind shear in the region limit the convection to
scattered showers from 04N-08N between 30W and 35W.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis near 60W,
moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is
embedded in a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb as
indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. A diffluent environment aloft ahead
of the wave supports scattered showers across the Windward Islands
and adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 75W,
moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery
show the wave is embedded in shallow moisture whereas water vapor
imagery show strong subsidence aloft. Passing showers are across Hispaniola
and adjacent waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 08N13W to 09N27W to 06N39W. The
ITCZ begins near 06N40W and continues to 08N50W to 06N57W. Aside
from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
showers are within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Relatively tranquil conditions continue across the basin as a
1018 mb high is centered across the NE Gulf near 26N87W, which
provides light variable wind flow E of 90W. Gentle to moderate
return flow dominates elsewhere, except in the eastern Bay of
Campeche where a heat induced surface trough supports fresh NE
flow. Otherwise...primarily gentle to moderate return flow is
expected through Monday with very little change.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between ridging across the Atlc extending
across the northern Caribbean and lower pressure across northern
Venezuela and Colombia continue to support fresh to strong trades
across the majority of the central and SW Caribbean. The exception
is along the Coast of Colombia where near gale force winds are
advertised. Generally moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere.
Shallow moisture in the SW basin and diffluent flow aloft support
isolated showers and tstms within 20 nm of the coast of Costa
Rica and northern Panama. A middle-level trough centered over Cuba
and shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean supports isolated
showers and tstms over southern Cuba adjacent waters. A weak
tropical wave is in the central Caribbean and generates passing
showers over Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A second tropical
wave is starting to move across the eastern basin and supports
scattered showers in the Windward Islands and adjacent waters. See
the tropical waves section above for details. Fresh to strong
winds in the central and SW Caribbean will prevail through Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Passing showers are across Hispaniola and adjacent waters
associated with a tropical wave moving over central Caribbean
waters. Showers associated with this wave are expected to continue during
most of the day today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main features across the basin are two tropical waves
discussed in the waves section above. Otherwise, a broad surface
ridge dominates the remaining Atlantic waters being anchored by a
1025 mb center of high pres near 27N50W. Mostly tranquil
conditions are expected to persist with the broad surface ridging
the next few days.

For additional information please visit
www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS

Quoting 225. wunderweatherman123:


Atlantic has been a graveyard since the 2011 season. Notice how the East Pac just spits out hurricane after hurricane? Kinda getting ridiculous. Every year is a different excuse. 2012- too warm subtropics, 2013- something was messed up with the thermohaline circulation, 2014- ridiculous amounts of shear and SAL, 2015- monster el nino. What's it going to be this year? Not warm enough MDR?
Just a few more weeks away from the rising of August activity.
236. IDTH
The PDO is also beginning to cool.

237. IDTH
Quoting 232. moonlightcowboy:

Still watching the precarious twave now approaching 65w. Storms firing along the center of the axis, unrelated to land lift effects. Dry air slowly weakening out in front. Fairly low shear. Vorticity charts show little, but there's some apparent rotation trying to spin-up. A bit of convergence; not really notable, but diffluence staying above it indicating some effort to get going. Obviously, pressures aren't lowering enough, and it's in a sea of subsidence; but, it's still trying. No model support (I get that), but I'm an old-school blob watcher, and get things wrong more often than not. It's more likely to dissipate entirely, but sometimes these stubborn disturbances are the ones that creep up on us. If it keeps firing convection across that hot bath in the Caribbean, we may eventually see a SFC low form. Very interesting twave since about 30w.



Get used to seeing waves develop around that area around 60 W. I believe most of the tropical waves will develop further west this year with a few developing a little bit further east.
Quoting 233. Chicklit:

br abp="936">Okay, today is July 10th.br abp="937">


Look at that shear in the GOM and Caribbean quite the contrast from last few seasons. :0) Give it a few weeks.
Quoting 196. BayFog:


If it were only locusts, aphids and mosquitos, I think most could live with that. But we're in trouble without the bees.


Bees seem more vauable at first, we're heavily dependent on them for pollination, and of course we're in deep trouble without them, but "out there" everything is connected. Lose the locusts, you'll end up losing other invertebrate species as well as fish species, some of which you may be eating sometimes. Lose the mosquitoes, you lose bats. Lose bats... etc. Research has proved how one species loss can have cascading effects. We know maybe 5-25 percent of Earth' species, there is simply no way of telling which one matters and which one doesn't over the long-term in my opinion. I know we're gonna keep trying to identify such key species, because our survival will ultimately depend on that, but maybe it won't buy us much time. There's a massive extinction going on, FYI. The article RobertWC's comment linked to goes into the details of how and why, and so does this article :
Holocene Exctinction - Wikipedia
"In The Future of Life (2002), E.O. Wilson of Harvard calculated that, if the current rate of human disruption of the biosphere continues, one-half of Earth's higher lifeforms will be extinct by 2100. A 1998 poll conducted by the American Museum of Natural History found that seventy percent of biologists believe that we are in the midst of an anthropogenic extinction. Numerous scientific studies - such as a 2004 report published in Nature, and papers authored by the 10.000 scientists who contribute to the IUCN's annual Red List of threatened species - have since reinforced this conviction."
I'd like to hear the 30 percent, of course, but they'd better bring some convincing meta-studies* at the table :-)
*A study of studies. One takes for example 30 different studies and tries to find ways to integrate them into a meta-study that accounts for all those studies' findings while hopefully revealing something else on the topic to the researchers. Scientists usually wait for quality meta-studies to strenghthen or undermine a trending hypothesis (example : the nocivity of EM waves seems so hard to prove many are counting on meta-studies to settle the debate, including intl organizations like the WHO. Granted, anthropogenic greenhouse effect and its consequences is far less controversial a topic among researchers and usually, people on the front line too).
Quoting 238. hurricane23:



Look at that shear in the GOM and Caribbean :0) Give it a few weeks.


shear in the gulf right now is about 10kt so that really light the shear in the gulf have been vary light this year there is one are of 40kt of shear and that is by TX
Quoting 233. Chicklit:


Okay, today is July 10th.




we dont need too keep seeing the freaking chat every day one more post of the chart and its going in the fireplace too be burned up
I just read a couple of articles about Florida's increasing coastal flooding problems, which are being exacerbated by a steadily increasing rate of sea-level rise. Donald Trump, climate denialist and U.S. Republican presidential candidate and/or his heirs could be "really yuge (sic) losers" if they don't sell their properties before the south Florida coastal real estate market collapses in the next few decades.

Although I live in a mountain valley - on a well-drained hillside far above the river and flood plain - I am aware of the impact for everyone affected by hits to the U.S. and global economies. I ran across a prophetic saying, which I modified to read:

"If you live only feet above a river or the ocean, the waters will one day come to your house for a visit. (or to your resort or other property)"

Storm surge, floods and sea level rise come to mind.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed this year for those who live in low-lying coastal areas and flood-prone river valleys and plains.
Quoting 229. moonlightcowboy:



Not to worry; she will raise her big, ugly head soon enough. The heart of the season is straight ahead, and it only takes one.


Yes, sure, but getting more rain before the end of july would be a good start ;)
244. IDTH
Isn't it more worryiing that the MJO is delayed? The Atlantic looks to be going into a more positive AMO state, with above normal SSTs across large parts of the MDR, which is currently warming:



Add in climatology and the ITCZ moving northward with conditions becoming better overall. Even if the MJO pulse is weak, it looks like it'll be coming at a time that the peak of the season starts to kick off. An average season would've had the first storm form yesterday, we've already had 4 so far. Even if the rest of July is dead - which is perfectly normal - the meat of the season is still to come and quite frankly I'm worried about this year. Positive AMO, Weak La Nina/cool Neutral conditions (much less shear than previous years), above normal SSTs in the MDR/Caribbean/Gulf Of Mexico. This year has to potential to be quite active, with a higher chance of landfalling storms.
Quoting 246. Envoirment:

Isn't it more worryiing that the MJO is delayed? The Atlantic looks to be going into a more +AMO state, with above normal SSTs across large parts of the MDR, which is currnetly warming:



Add into climatology and the ITCZ moving northward with conditions becoming better overall. Even if the MJO pulse is weak, it looks like it'll be coming at a time that the peak of the season starts to kick off. An average season would've had the first storm form yesterday, we've already had 4 so far. Even if the rest of July is dead - which is perfectly normal - the meat of the season is still to come and quite frankly I'm worried about this year. +AMO, Weak La Nina/cool Neutral conditions (much less shear than previous years), above normal SSTs in the MDR/Caribbean/Gulf Of Mexico. This year has to potential to be quite active, with a higher chance of landfalling storms.


agreed with be low normal wind shear in the gulf i would really keep a eye on the gulf
Could we see something like this in 5 weeks, with the a greater chance of landfall? It's certainly looking like a possibility.
ASCAT is showing the storm up by New Foundland at 1010mb, not closed and decoupled.


Looked a little better 12hrs ago..
Quoting 246. Envoirment:

Isn't it more worryiing that the MJO is delayed? The Atlantic looks to be going into a more +AMO state, with above normal SSTs across large parts of the MDR, which is currnetly warming:



Add into climatology and the ITCZ moving northward with conditions becoming better overall. Even if the MJO pulse is weak, it looks like it'll be coming at a time that the peak of the season starts to kick off. An average season would've had the first storm form yesterday, we've already had 4 so far. Even if the rest of July is dead - which is perfectly normal - the meat of the season is still to come and quite frankly I'm worried about this year. +AMO, Weak La Nina/cool Neutral conditions (much less shear than previous years), above normal SSTs in the MDR/Caribbean/Gulf Of Mexico. This year has to potential to be quite active, with a higher chance of landfalling storms.
I agree. This year will be active, with quite a few major hurricanes. Bermuda High configuration could be the main steering mechanism ( it usually is ) if storms reach 20 N and 60 W...Here is the latest GFS at 168 hours...

Quoting 227. help4u:

Another dead season on the way.Great news for everyone!

Hope your right.
The EPAC switch will turn off soon, then giving the Atlantic to turn on it's switch.
Quoting 214. NSB207:
Re: Native Sun's comment.
Recognize his description of past indicators are classic, however with earth warming these indicators may not be applicable in the future. Florida central east coast weather for instance not as it should be in June and July.
I plussed your comment because you said "may not" rather than "will not." This indicates an understanding of how science and probabilities work.

I also took your description of current central east coast Florida weather to mean that "what's happenning is not typical or expected weather for this time of year".

Such wording is the quite different from typical AGW/CC denialist blather.

Here in Panama, we are having wet weather that is more typical of the past rather than the recent four years of much less precipitation in the rainy season. May and June precip were back up to older averages - just in time to help the watershed of Lake Gatun, which supplies water to operate the locks of the Panama Canal.

Last week, the government hosted a dedication ceremony for the upgraded canal, and opened the new, bigger version with its gigantic locks. The new locks system has water saving engineering features, , but there had recently been draft restrictions of the old, smaller portion of the canal and the old locks. Fortunately, our very rainy May and June took care of that problem - for now.



Link to info about CO2 emission reduction efforts by the Panama Canal Authority.

Quoting 256. jwjr82691:



Hello! Your first comment here. Welcome.
Still need to hear the calabash tree report from down in Trinidad. Anyone heard from Pottery lately?

Could it be?? Celia has an eye??
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2016 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 14:49:57 N Lon : 121:35:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.1 / 987.6mb/ 67.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.3 4.3

Center Temp : -73.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 76km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.3 degrees

************************************************* ***




A whole lotta nothing out there in the Atlantic.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 101728
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Quoting 261. 62901IL:

A whole lotta nothing out there in the Atlantic.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 101728
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


It's mid July still early in the season
Quoting 234. Patrap:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 101016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 32W,
moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is
embedded in a mainly low moist environment from surface to 850 mb
as indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. Meteosat imagery show Saharan
dry air and dust in the wave environment that along with strong
deep layer wind shear in the region limit the convection to
scattered showers from 04N-08N between 30W and 35W.

A tropical wave is in the west Atlantic with axis near 60W,
moving west at 20 knots within the last 24 hours. The wave is
embedded in a moderate moist environment from surface to 850 mb as
indicated by CIRA LPW imagery. A diffluent environment aloft ahead
of the wave supports scattered showers across the Windward Islands
and adjacent waters.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 75W,
moving west at 15 knots within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW imagery
show the wave is embedded in shallow moisture whereas water vapor
imagery show strong subsidence aloft. Passing showers are across Hispaniola
and adjacent waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 08N13W to 09N27W to 06N39W. The
ITCZ begins near 06N40W and continues to 08N50W to 06N57W. Aside
from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered
showers are within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Relatively tranquil conditions continue across the basin as a
1018 mb high is centered across the NE Gulf near 26N87W, which
provides light variable wind flow E of 90W. Gentle to moderate
return flow dominates elsewhere, except in the eastern Bay of
Campeche where a heat induced surface trough supports fresh NE
flow. Otherwise...primarily gentle to moderate return flow is
expected through Monday with very little change.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between ridging across the Atlc extending
across the northern Caribbean and lower pressure across northern
Venezuela and Colombia continue to support fresh to strong trades
across the majority of the central and SW Caribbean. The exception
is along the Coast of Colombia where near gale force winds are
advertised. Generally moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere.
Shallow moisture in the SW basin and diffluent flow aloft support
isolated showers and tstms within 20 nm of the coast of Costa
Rica and northern Panama. A middle-level trough centered over Cuba
and shallow moisture in the NW Caribbean supports isolated
showers and tstms over southern Cuba adjacent waters. A weak
tropical wave is in the central Caribbean and generates passing
showers over Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A second tropical
wave is starting to move across the eastern basin and supports
scattered showers in the Windward Islands and adjacent waters. See
the tropical waves section above for details. Fresh to strong
winds in the central and SW Caribbean will prevail through Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Passing showers are across Hispaniola and adjacent waters
associated with a tropical wave moving over central Caribbean
waters. Showers associated with this wave are expected to continue during
most of the day today.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main features across the basin are two tropical waves
discussed in the waves section above. Otherwise, a broad surface
ridge dominates the remaining Atlantic waters being anchored by a
1025 mb center of high pres near 27N50W. Mostly tranquil
conditions are expected to persist with the broad surface ridging
the next few days.

For additional information please visit
www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS


WHAAAT!?!? NHC PRODUCTS WRITTEN IN STANDARD ENGLISH?!?! IF GOD HAD MEANT THIS TO HAPPEN, HE WOULDN'T HAVE GIVEN US ALL THOSE WONDERFUL ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS. AND THE CAPS LOCK KEY?!?! IT'S THERE TO BE USED, PEOPLE!!! SOMEBODY NEEDS TO GET TO THE BOTTOM OF THIS AND FAST!!!
Celia rgb loop
Quoting 262. Tazmanian:



It's mid July still early in the season


I know. Just saying that there was nothing out there.
Celia

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery


267. beell
Quoting 251. hydrus:

I agree. This year will be active, with quite a few major hurricanes. Bermuda High configuration could be the main steering mechanism ( it usually is ) if storms reach 20 N and 60 W...Here is the latest GFS at 168 hours...




ITCZ looks a bit suppressed on that frame (along 10N). More than likely SAL & subsidence as a couple of root causes. A/B ridge at 1032 mb.

(Howdy, Hydrus!)
Quoting 214. NSB207:

Re: Native Sun's comment.
Recognize his description of past indicators are classic, however with earth warming these indicators may not be applicable in the future. Florida central east coast weather for instance not as it should be in June and July.
And what is causing the earth to warm? Could it be the oceans being so warm?
Not much moisture to work with in the GOM. Upper Level Low spinning in the N.E. GOM trying to produce a few storms.
I'm waiting for the afternoon sea breeze storms to fire off here in S.W. Florida. It's been pretty active the past few days in the late afternoon here.
270. beell
Quoting 269. Sfloridacat5:

Not much moisture to work with in the GOM. Upper Level Low spinning in the N.E. GOM trying to produce a few storms.
I'm waiting for the afternoon sea breeze storms to fire off here in S.W. Florida. It's been pretty active the past few days in the late afternoon here.



Nothing on the east coast in quite a while. Looks like we are stuck in this pattern for at least another week.

273. vis0

Quoting 208. 19N81W:

Quiet again in th Atlantic not that we are surprised
The US is smoking hot except for the extreme NW and ne
Seems like an all to familiar setup
Do people still look forward to summer?
Yes??? but when the Sirius days (dog/dog star) aka Dog days" of summer begin in late june instead of "under those stars"... i wonder how "Indian summer" will be like the further we go into the future. (BTW even the NE is not as smokin' hot as was expected AFTER the 7/8th of July ...might be hotter later this month) Sure its called "summer" but also early, middle and late summer where used to describe the summer season when Earth was healthier now its "open oven door summer" for the center of the continent (see keeperofgates local temps for reference).  At a climate meeting YEARS AGO i said,  "watch, when summer begins like a 50 yard dash but stays around like a marathon then people in feeling SOMETHING will begin to notice that Earth is sick/has a fever."
Quoting 265. 62901IL:



I know. Just saying that there was nothing out there.


then there really not a point in posting it is it? the two should only be posted on here if there was some in on with in the next 48hrs or the next 5 days
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nas a/2000/ast20oct_1/
Is an excellent article on subject of global warming. Provides excellent caution of "cannot be flatly stated, humans are the cause", however evidence appears so.

Observations are important and in my life time, East Central Florida winters have moderated evidence by more sustained growth of mango and coconut trees as far north as Coco Beach and even New Smyrna Beach.
Quoting 268. NativeSun:

And what is causing the earth to warm? Could it be the oceans being so warm?


I think you know NativeSun that the conclusively happening AGW puzzle is much larger than that. Warming oceans and melting Arctic are some easy measures. But these are effects of AGW, which there are so many. Warming SST's no doubt add to coastal temperatures in many places around the world.
Rotation more apparent. Some vorticity present at the 700mb levels. Better convergence too, but convection struggling amidst the dry air and a small pocket of intense mid-level shear.




These may be Taylor vortices in the flow pattern on the far eyewall. These may be rolling tubes laid next to each other and with alternating spin direction. One of them seems to be stuck in the eye unable to make up its mind which wall to climb.

Link
I guess people do have the right to be cautious after the string of failure seasons.
283. IDTH
.
with this light wind shear and if we get a Hurricane Andrew like track this year and at the right time S FL could be in vary big trouble

285. vis0
meanwhile obs winds...



286. IDTH
Quoting 246. Envoirment:

Isn't it more worryiing that the MJO is delayed? The Atlantic looks to be going into a more positive AMO state, with above normal SSTs across large parts of the MDR, which is currently warming:



Add in climatology and the ITCZ moving northward with conditions becoming better overall. Even if the MJO pulse is weak, it looks like it'll be coming at a time that the peak of the season starts to kick off. An average season would've had the first storm form yesterday, we've already had 4 so far. Even if the rest of July is dead - which is perfectly normal - the meat of the season is still to come and quite frankly I'm worried about this year. Positive AMO, Weak La Nina/cool Neutral conditions (much less shear than previous years), above normal SSTs in the MDR/Caribbean/Gulf Of Mexico. This year has to potential to be quite active, with a higher chance of landfalling storms.

That's what I'm saying. People be complaining about the season being dead now but come August people are not going to be saying the same thing. I leave for college on the 13th of August and I'll no longer be on the coast and I worry about how bad this season could end up being.
EP, 04, 2016071018, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1219W, 70, 988, HU

EP, 97, 2016071018, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1049W, 25, 1009, DB
288. vis0
anybody else having trouble with nasa.gov sites since early Sunday?


season just started July 1st and there is a potential for "Abela"

Link

RSMC Reunion has the invest very low up to Wednesday to low-moderate beyond for a formation of a tropical depression.
Quoting 288. vis0:

anybody else having trouble with nasa.gov sites since early Sunday?

At first it would not show me the file for the TCHP map and I had to wait two hours until I was able to find a way to get them.
Should the United States Save Tangier Island From Oblivion? Click photo to enlarge. If using Chrome, right click on image, select Open image in new tab.

July living up to it's true self with the decent heat over the last few days, today is not so bad, but more heat on the way for this week.
293. vis0

Quoting 290. washingtonian115:

At first it would not show me the file for the TCHP map and I had to wait two hours until I was able to find a way to get them.
Fist of all i don't have Washington connections, heck my own connections are frayed...
Second if i bat my eyelashes at the compu'r my pho-seri sez use an eye moisturizer...
Thnxz for the reply.
i'll keep trying...
Quoting 291. BaltimoreBrian:

Should the United States Save Tangier Island From Oblivion? Click photo to enlarge.




This area has been discussed many times over the years. In addition to sea level rise the area is also sinking due to post-glacial subsidence. Many articles fail to mention that.
Subsidence combined with sea level rise and erosion will make this area a challenge to save in the long run.
Holland island MD has already seen what many islands will face in the future
Quoting 258. moonlightcowboy:

Still need to hear the calabash tree report from down in Trinidad. Anyone heard from Pottery lately?



He was by Hood's blog. Looked like he had a day. It was raining..
297. beell
Quoting 291. BaltimoreBrian:

Should the United States Save Tangier Island From Oblivion? Click photo to enlarge.




No. Although I would love to live in this isolated place and I somewhat understand the loss of history and heritage that accompanies the loss of land.

Saving this place will, as usual, be linked to business revenue and the state and federal taxes on that revenue. Miami and Galveston may be able to make a case for dumping millions of dollars into a lost cause to protect that tax base.

Tangier Island only has irreplaceable, precious, intangibles to offer. Since an intangible cannot be priced, it is worthless.

And meanwhile...Brian, your "Click photo to enlarge" has never worked with Chrome. Probably the most popular browser in the world. Add this to your prompt: "If using Chrome, right click on image, select Open image in new tab".
New info (at least for me) I have discovered going through saved links:


Navy upgraded NAVGEM

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) hosts
the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center`s (FNMOC)
Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) on its ftp/http servers.
Effective with the 12z cycle on Tuesday, June 28, 2016, the
NAVGEM will be upgraded. The following changes can be expected:
- The resolution will increase from 1.0 degree to 0.5 degree
- The format will change from GRIB1 to GRIB2
- The file names will change to reflect the new GRIB2 format
navgem_YYYYMMDDCCfFFFF will change to
navgem_YYYYMMDDCCfFFFF.grib2
Where YYYYMMDD is year, month and day
Where CC is cycle
Where FFF is forecast hour 00-180


Navy has added a MODEL FORECAST VERIFICATION page which includes a Tropical Section.





Note: As with other Navy webpages you will most likely get a security warning.
Quoting 297. beell:



No. Although I would love to live in this isolated place and I somewhat understand the loss of history and heritage that accompanies the loss of land.

Saving this place will, as usual, be linked to business revenue and the state and federal taxes on that revenue. Miami and Galveston may be able to make a case for dumping millions of dollars into a lost cause to protect that tax base.

Tangier Island only has irreplaceable, precious, intangibles to offer. Since an intangible cannot be priced, it is worthless.

And meanwhile...Brian, your "Click photo to enlarge" has never worked with Chrome. Probably the most popular browser in the world. Add this to your prompt: "If using Chrome, right click on image, select Open image in new tab".

Doesn't work in Firefox either, at least for me...
Quoting 294. Sfloridacat5:

This area has been discussed many times over the years. In addition to sea level rise the area is also sinking due to post-glacial subsidence. Many articles fail to mention that.
Subsidence combined with sea level rise and erosion will make this area a challenge to save in the long run.
This article does mention that. Quote from the article:

"What's more, the land in and around the Chesapeake is sinking, because of lingering effects from geological events dating back 20,000 years."
Quoting 227. help4u:

Another dead season on the way.Great news for everyone!


Remember 2004 didn't have it's first named storm until July 31.
Celia continues to have a very odd structure. Despite an excellent outflow pattern it's really had a hard time tightening and aligning its inner core. Dry air entrainment not helping with that. I think 80mph is probably generous from the NHC, but it's a very difficult storm to estimate wind intensity on.

Celia

The East Pacific tropical cyclone outbreak looks to continue on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and...


90.4F today, last two days 90.9F, normal is 92/64
East pacific sure is cranking out storms....wonder when the atlantic will come back alive??
Quoting 306. stormhank:

East pacific sure is cranking out storms....wonder when the atlantic will come back alive??


Climatology says around August 1st.
Late greetings from a so called "tropical night" in Germany with temps not below 20C (68F) or higher as in my place near Frankfurt. But those hot temps are only a guest performance in Germany this year; tomorrow they'll already drop, not without some strong stroms in the north and the south.

Here is the latest of Nepartak's impacts in China:



Typhoon Nepartak leaves six dead, eight missing in east China
2016-07-11 00:32:52 Xinhua
Six people were killed and eight others remain missing after Typhoon Nepartak made landfall and swept through east China's Fujian and Jiangxi provinces, authorities said Sunday.
As of 5 p.m., 203,000 residents in ten cities had been temporarily relocated as the typhoon destroyed close to 1,900 houses, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said on late Sunday. A total of 449,000 people were affected.
Nearly 15,800 hectares of crops were damaged by the typhoon, of which 1,600 hectares were totally destroyed.
Direct economic losses were estimated at 860 million yuan (about 128.7 million U.S. dollars). ...
Quoting 302. MAweatherboy1:

Celia continues to have a very odd structure. Despite an excellent outflow pattern it's really had a hard time tightening and aligning its inner core. Dry air entrainment not helping with that. I think 80mph is probably generous from the NHC, but it's a very difficult storm to estimate wind intensity on.



I don't see any issues with its core. We're seeing a small yet well-defined eye emerge on infrared imagery. The dry air entrainment is the only issue to me.

310. beell
Quoting 304. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The East Pacific tropical cyclone outbreak looks to continue on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and...




LOL on that term!
Meanwhile in the Atlantic.....
Quoting 310. beell:



LOL on that term!

It sounds cool so I've been using it. Not sure how to quantify it though. Maybe 3 over a 7-day period. :)
Quoting 299. PedleyCA:


Doesn't work in Firefox either, at least for me...
Right click ("Control click" on a Mac) works in Safari to open in another tab. I guess you tried right clicking with FF?
........

And, on Tangier, VA, saying intangibles have no worth is like saying love has no worth. The gov't might want to look at potential fixes. Kind of reminds me of Picher, OK where mine tailings (and an EF 4) caused an unlivable environment and helping residents relocate became the only sustainable solution. Messing with the natural flow of water can cause other problems down the road, another intangible that has worth. For Tangier Isl. and in all cases of water table rising, and where (add: water erodes) beaches and beachfront is disappearing (etc) I hope those involved in decision-making examine the alternatives carefully.

(edit: spelling of Tangier corrected.)
314. beell
Quoting 313. Barefootontherocks:

Right click ("Control click" on a Mac) works in Safari to open in another tab. I guess you tried right clicking with FF?
........

And, on Tangiers, VA, saying intangibles have no worth is like saying love has no worth. The gov't might want to look at potential fixes. Kind of reminds me of Picher, OK where mine tailings (and an EF 4) caused an unlivable environment and helping residents relocate became the only sustainable solution. Messing with the natural flow of water can cause other problems down the road, another intangible that has worth. For Tangiers and in all cases of water table rising, and where beaches and beachfront is disappearing (etc) I hope those involved in decision-making examine the alternatives carefully.


I couldn't find a melancholy cynic emoji, bf.
Quoting 300. BaltimoreBrian:

This article does mention that. Quote from the article:

"What's more, the land in and around the Chesapeake is sinking, because of lingering effects from geological events dating back 20,000 years."


Yeah, I said "many" articles (not this particular article) fail to mention this.
Here's an article I had saved from this same discussion years ago. Link

"Erosion is exacerbated by rising sea levels in the bay, the result of global warming. Globally, increasing temperatures have caused sea levels to rise at about 1.8 mm a year. Sea levels in the bay are rising at twice that rate %u2013 well over 3 mm a year, scientists say.

At the same time, the land in the Chesapeake Bay region is sinking, a phenomenon known as post-glacial subsidence. In essence, the land is settling after thousands of years of continental shifts. This accelerates the rate of sea-level rise."


???
Quoting 316. Articuno:



???


Yeah. What's going on?
318. beell

(click image for full hi-res loop)
Quoting 316. Articuno:



???


that is now 97E
Quoting 318. beell:


(click image for full hi-res loop)


Nice rickrolling us...I've done that twice to date.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 2h
Major African dust outbreaks over the next 10 days likely to keep eastern Atlantic tropics quiet
Quoting 319. Tazmanian:



that is now 97E


Yeah, a bit strange though.
323. beell
ATCF TC Genesis Process - 12/2015
A genesis area is started by clicking on Manage-Storms / “Start a Genesis Area”. The “Start a Genesis Area” dialog allows the user to enter the genesis-area-number, the area's subbasin, the storm-number, the starting date and time, and the initial lat/lon. The lat/lon's can be rough estimates since the best-track can be modified later. The genesis-area-number is a three digit annual genesis number (1 – 999). The genesis number will be initialized to one plus the last genesis number used for the selected basin for the current year...

...An invest area can be started from a genesis area by clicking on Manage-storms / “Spawn an
Invest from a genesis area”...


nrlmry.navy/atcf/genesis

(the link is real-i promise)
97E is really looking good

smirk
Quoting 314. beell:



I couldn't find a melancholy cynic emoji, bf.
Recent microwave on Celia... the storm is hollow. Significant dry air intrusion.

Quoting 268. NativeSun:

And what is causing the earth to warm? Could it be the oceans being so warm?

Over 90% of the heat energy from anthropogenic global warming goes into the oceans. The oceans absorb that heat from the Sun and the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere slow the escape of that heat so the oceans get warmer. If the greenhouse gas levels stopped rising the ocean and atmosphere would eventually reach a new equilibrium and quit warming.

Kind of in a low 90's rut....
Quoting 321. Climate175:

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 2h
Major African dust outbreaks over the next 10 days likely to keep eastern Atlantic tropics quiet

Wasn't much of 2013 like this?
Quoting 329. opal92nwf:


Wasn't much of 2013 like this?
These outbreaks are typical for July, they will begin to cease and not be so intense come next month.
Quoting 306. stormhank:

East pacific sure is cranking out storms....wonder when the atlantic will come back alive??
mid august or there abouts
Quoting 304. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The East Pacific tropical cyclone outbreak looks to continue on, and on, and on, and on, and on, and...




Wow, that run went all the way to Howard. What's even crazier is that the ECMWF agrees through 240 hours.


hotter and hotter
I've published a blog on Celia, 97E, and the East Pacific:

Link
It looks like activity will increase across the tropical Atlantic Ocean in August. 5-6 named storms, 3-4 hurricane and 1-2 Major hurricanes for the month seems reasonable with one making landfall.
338. JRRP7
Quoting 335. Gearsts:




better conditions for the MDR
Quoting 336. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've published a blog on Celia, 97E, and the East Pacific:

Link


Looks like the disturbance that forms east of 97E, becomes a monster hurricane on all of the models.
Looking like the East Pacific is going to steal the show again this year; at least the early portion. Hawaii may be under threat just like they were insanely like never before last year. Could both basins blow up this year? That would be wild and not good.
Numbers still rising. Obviously Neparatak was a lot deadlier in China than in Taiwan:
Typhoon Nepartak leaves 9 dead, 18 missing in southeast China
2016-07-11 15:53:41 CRIENGLISH.com
Oahu taking a major would be terrible. Their building codes are not prepared for such an event and the freshwater flooding and surge would be catastrophic. Another Iniki aimed at Waikiki/Honolulu would devastate. And a difficult evacuation scenario. Most of the population of the island live on the makai side of the island.


Quoting 341. DeepSeaRising:

Looking like the East Pacific is going to steal the show again this year; at least the early portion. Hawaii may be under threat just like they were insanely like never before last year. Could both basins blow up this year? That would be wild and not good.
a direct hit metro miami would be pretty bad too. 1000s of homeless old condos ext ext it would not be pretty. add a "giddy goo goo" governor and a senator who voted against Sandys disaster assistance thatas a recipe for disaster.
Good Morning; quiet in the Atlantic and Celia in the E-Pac:

Combined image of all basins

And the Conus forecast:
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 AM EDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 11 2016 - 12Z Wed Jul 13 2016

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from central Plains to
the Upper Midwest...

...Heavy rain possible for northeast Montana and from the central Plains
to the Upper Mississippi Valley...

...Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains...

A low pressure system will lift north and east through the Dakotas and
into the Canadian Prairie over the next couple of days. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the advancing cold front
from northern Kansas to Minnesota today- shifting further into the Upper
Mississippi valley and western Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday.
Conditions will be favorable for storms to turn severe. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the central Plains and Upper
Midwest as having a slight risk for severe weather through Wednesday
morning.

Additionally, onshore flow will aid in producing rain over parts of the
Pacific Northwest/Northern Intermountain Region today. A cold front will
sweep through the Pacific Northwest tonight and into Tuesday and diminish
before reaching the Northern Rockies.

A very moist airmass over the Gulf Coast states, combined with an
upper-level low, will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms from east
Texas to the Southeast. Areal coverage will be dependent on daytime
heating. Overnight Monday, showers and thunderstorms will develop near
the upper-level low over the Central Appalachians to the Southern
Mid-Atlantic into Tuesday.




And the current look:



Heavy rains moving across Minnesota this morning headed into Wisconsin:

Upper Mississippi Valley sector loop
Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

Quoting 334. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



hotter and hotter
Nothing new, move along, after all it is summer in an aired region of the U.S.
Quoting 349. NativeSun:

Nothing new, move along, after all it is summer in an aired region of the U.S.

Record heat, record hot June. Nothing new, after all it's summer.
Quoting 349. NativeSun:

Nothing new, move along, after all it is summer...


You were saying?
11/1145 UTC 14.5N 104.9W T1.5/1.5 97E -- East Pacific

97E is vary close too Being upgraded
This particular Spring and Summer has been brutal so far in terms of heat. I was in Ft. Lauderdale all weekend and it was just as hot as North Florida; my parents in their 80's are retired but have pensions, and the home is paid off, so they can run the air all day to keep cool. I cannot imagine what it is like for elderly who cannot afford to run their air who live in hot locales:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database

Caribbean and Atlantic shut down time to change the numbers folks
Times are a changing the Saharan desert is growing and in control of this region. We will become increasingly arid in its wake.
Anti global warming deniers?

Quoting 351. Neapolitan:



You were saying?
Quoting 354. 19N81W:

Caribbean and Atlantic shut down time to change the numbers folks
Times are a changing the Saharan desert is growing and in control of this region. We will become increasingly arid in its wake.


late july AUGS things will pick up
The hotter it gets the more carbon we emit ... This is an exponential problem which means it will become increasingly extreme
Quoting 353. weathermanwannabe:

This particular Spring and Summer has been brutal so far in terms of heat. I was in Ft. Lauderdale all weekend and it was just as hot as North Florida; my parents in their 80's are retired but have pensions, and the home is paid off, so they can run the air all day to keep cool. I cannot imagine what it is like for elderly who cannot afford to run their air who live in hot locales:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database


Just like this will be a return to rain and storms
There is nothing indicating anything but the new norm
Quoting 356. Tazmanian:



late july AUGS things will pick up
Quoting 344. islander101010:

a direct hit metro miami would be pretty bad too. 1000s of homeless old condos ext ext it would not be pretty. add a "giddy goo goo" governor and a senator who voted against Sandys disaster assistance thatas a recipe for disaster.


If another "1926 hurricane" hurricane hit Miami, it would be absolutely devastating.

And ... it could be worse .... becoming a double-hit hurricane - slamming ashore along the northern Gulf Coast. Not wanting to see that happen, but it is always possible. It happened in 1926, 1947, 1965 (Betsy), 1992 (Andrew).

Katrina (2005) was a CAT1 hurricane in S. Florida, before slamming into the Central Gulf Coast as a CAT3.

Quoting 353. weathermanwannabe:

This particular Spring and Summer has been brutal so far in terms of heat. I was in Ft. Lauderdale all weekend and it was just as hot as North Florida; my parents in their 80's are retired but have pensions, and the home is paid off, so they can run the air all day to keep cool. I cannot imagine what it is like for elderly who cannot afford to run their air who live in hot locales:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database


I thought the elderly loved it and moved south for it.
Some of you have no patience what so ever
Good morning from Houston. The SAL is here and it has landed on my car. Not only do we have to deal with hot and dry, we get dusty as well...

The models continue with a dead Atlantic all the way until the first week of August.
Quoting 357. 19N81W:

The hotter it gets the more carbon we emit ... This is an exponential problem which means it will become increasingly extreme



Nah we will slowly continue moving off Carbon naturally as the economies of scale of renewable energy continue to increase. Once that point hits the companies everyone loves to hate will take over the renewable energy business and make their profits off that.
I think it's more that many of us are starting to realize climatology wise our region (those that live down here) is becoming drier thus less storms.
Quoting 361. Tazmanian:

Some of you have no patience what so ever
Mid too upper 40s here this am that's vary cold for this time of year
Maybe in some western economies (a big maybe)
The problem is the developing world economies comprise the vast majority of global populations and only just started their burn.
It will take a global catastrophic event to change things.
Quoting 364. VAbeachhurricanes:



Nah we will slowly continue move off Carbon naturally as the economies of scale of renewable energy continue to increase. Once that point hits the companies everyone loves to hate will take over the renewable energy business and make their profits off that.
Quoting 363. washingtonian115:


The models continue with a dead Atlantic all the way until the first week of August.


We'll just have a basin of clear skies, no storms, boiling waters with white dead coral reefs
The MJO has been staying in the east pacific...Once again it looks like the Atlantic will be cheated.We saw these early sign in 013,014 and 015 (along with the El nino that year)
Quoting Quoting 354. 19N81W:

Caribbean and Atlantic shut down time to change the numbers folks
Times are a changing the Saharan desert is growing and in control of this region. We will become increasingly arid in its wake.

Your comment deserves study as expansion of the Sahara could well change the dynamics of lows spinning off Africa.
Quoting 369. washingtonian115:

The MJO has been staying in the eat pacific...Once again it looks like the Atlantic will be cheated.We saw these early sign in 013,014 and 015 (along with the El nino that year)



Only thing is EL Nino is gone this season
Quoting 367. 19N81W:

Maybe in some western economies (a big maybe)
The problem is the developing world economies comprise the vast majority of global populations and only just started their burn.
It will take a global catastrophic event to change things.



I think people underestimate the rate that technology is growing in our society, Tesla for example is redefining the entire car market already in the 13 years its been in business, only 6 years since it produced its first electric vehicle. Quantum computers are close to becoming a reality that will change the entire world over night. We as a species will be fine in regards to global warming, technology will find a way to stop it, I am much more concerned that we will kill each other off way before the climate does.
Quoting 333. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Give it 4-5 weeks time.
Quoting 349. NativeSun:

Nothing new, move along, after all it is summer in an aired region of the U.S.

Would you mind demonstrating the usefulness of your advice by taking it yourself? Thanks.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 10h10 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Old timers would call 500 mb ridge in hurricane season over NW atl "newfoundland wheel" would direct storm track at US

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
SST have reversed off east coast. Great for hitting the beach but enhanced temps rest of summer temps, hurricane implication later
"But for the most part your general rule of thumb is August 20th->October 10th for the real meat of activity. Like clockwork, Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean basin wide concerned, we go from near zero activity to very active thunderstorm complexes in the tropics some time in the last 10 days of August.... every year." - Blogger Pcroton.
Quoting 326. MAweatherboy1:

Recent microwave on Celia... the storm is hollow. Significant dry air intrusion.




Conventional Satellite.



I thought for sure this thing would rapidly intensify overnight, and we'd be seeing at least 100mph by the time I woke up this morning, but it's at 85 right now.
Quoting 363. washingtonian115:


The models continue with a dead Atlantic all the way until the first week of August.
Man look at the Gulf! Look how the TCHP has bubbled up a red spot. I hope people are ready for whatever gets into the GOM or Caribbean because it will have an explosiveness to grow in those regions. Like I said last week keep enjoying these calm days because what comes next may not look pretty further down the road especially if Mr. MJO comes in August.
Eastern Pac is gonna have the MJO for awhile. We should see more activity there until the end of July if you are looking for any activity.
Quoting 354. 19N81W:

Caribbean and Atlantic shut down time to change the numbers folks
Times are a changing the Saharan desert is growing and in control of this region. We will become increasingly arid in its wake.


Good morning to all! While I understand your desperation, the fact is that June and July are historically slow and should never be used to judge how active the rest of the season will be! Now, if it's September and we're still looking for Earl, then we can start to complain. (Although those of us who have been through major hurricanes would more likely celebrate!) And with the Caymans so dry, it might actually become ground zero for landfall, as down here in South Florida, there has been a bit of a correlation between dry conditions and land falling storms, So, please be careful what you wish for and remember, as trite as it may sound, it really only does take one!
Quoting 375. washingtonian115:

Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 10h10 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Old timers would call 500 mb ridge in hurricane season over NW atl "newfoundland wheel" would direct storm track at US

Joe Bastardi %u200F@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
SST have reversed off east coast. Great for hitting the beach but enhanced temps rest of summer temps, hurricane implication later


I made a comment a few days ago showing the water temperatures off the East Coast. They have warmed up quite a bit in the past few weeks. I also went to Cocoa Beach and the water temperature was the warmest I've even felt it for the end of June.


Water temperatures are running 90-92 degrees along the west coast of Florida.

FLZ162-165-112015-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF...BOCA GRANDE...ENGLEWOOD...
FORT MYERS BEACH...SANIBEL ISLAND
406 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
BEACH WINDS.........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURF................1 FOOT OR LESS.
WATER CONDITION.....SMOOTH INCREASING TO A LIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WATER TEMPERATURE...90 DEGREES AT FORT MYERS BEACH.
UVI INDEX...........EXTREME.
LIGHTNING THREAT....INFREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW RISK... STRONG CURRENTS CAN OCCUR NEAR
PIERS AND JETTIES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION
DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.

FLZ050-151-155-160-112015-
PINELLAS-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF...BRADENTON BEACH...CLEARWATER BEACH...
SIESTA KEY...SAINT PETE BEACH...VENICE BEACH
406 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93.
BEACH WINDS.........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURF................1 FOOT OR LESS.
WATER CONDITION.....SMOOTH INCREASING TO A LIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WATER TEMPERATURE...92 DEGREES AT CLEARWATER BEACH.
UVI INDEX...........EXTREME.
LIGHTNING THREAT....VERY INFREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW RISK... STRONG CURRENTS CAN OCCUR NEAR
PIERS AND JETTIES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION
DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.

Quoting 379. bigwes6844:

Eastern Pac is gonna have the MJO for awhile. We should see more activity there until the end of July if you are looking for any activity.

Eastern Pacific in the coming days.
More bad news from Australia -



Australian mangrove die-off blamed on climate change

Thousands of hectares of mangroves in Australia’s remote north have died, scientists said Monday, with climate change the likely cause.

Some 7,000 hectares (17,300 acres), or nine percent of the mangroves in the Gulf of Carpentaria, perished in just one month according to researchers from Australia’s James Cook University, the first time such an event has been recorded.

The so-called dieback — where mangroves are either dead or defoliated — was confirmed by aerial and satellite surveys and was likely to have been the result of an extended drought period, said Norm Duke, a mangrove ecologist from James Cook University.


Link
Quoting 381. Sfloridacat5:



I made a comment a few days ago showing the water temperatures off the East Coast. They have warmed up quite a bit in the past few weeks. I also went to Cocoa Beach and the water temperature was the warmest I've even felt it for the end of June.


Water temperatures are running 90-92 degrees along the west coast of Florida.

FLZ162-165-112015-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF...BOCA GRANDE...ENGLEWOOD...
FORT MYERS BEACH...SANIBEL ISLAND
406 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 91.
BEACH WINDS.........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURF................1 FOOT OR LESS.
WATER CONDITION.....SMOOTH INCREASING TO A LIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WATER TEMPERATURE...90 DEGREES AT FORT MYERS BEACH.
UVI INDEX...........EXTREME.
LIGHTNING THREAT....INFREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW RISK... STRONG CURRENTS CAN OCCUR NEAR
PIERS AND JETTIES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION
DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.

FLZ050-151-155-160-112015-
PINELLAS-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF...BRADENTON BEACH...CLEARWATER BEACH...
SIESTA KEY...SAINT PETE BEACH...VENICE BEACH
406 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2016

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....88-93.
BEACH WINDS.........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
SURF................1 FOOT OR LESS.
WATER CONDITION.....SMOOTH INCREASING TO A LIGHT CHOP IN THE
AFTERNOON.
WATER TEMPERATURE...92 DEGREES AT CLEARWATER BEACH.
UVI INDEX...........EXTREME.
LIGHTNING THREAT....VERY INFREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.
RIP CURRENT RISK....LOW RISK... STRONG CURRENTS CAN OCCUR NEAR
PIERS AND JETTIES. ALWAYS HAVE A FLOTATION
DEVICE WITH YOU IN THE WATER.



You can hear the coral dying.
Quoting 384. cRRKampen:


You can hear the coral dying.


Well said.

But the algae are loving it.
Florida's algae problem stems from decades of Lake Okeechobee pollution

The algae fouling South Florida beaches traces its origin to cattle ranches, farms and neighborhoods as far north as Orlando.


A vast area drains into Lake Okeechobee, where water laden with phosphorus has fertilized the growth of horrific algae blooms that have been discharged to the ocean. The target phosphorus level for the lake is 105 metric tons a year. Last year, the lake received 450.

Read more at: Link


More than 800,000 people in India’s most populous state jostled for space Monday as they attempted to plant 50 million trees in 24 hours in the hopes of shattering the world record.

Link
Quoting 354. 19N81W:

Caribbean and Atlantic shut down time to change the numbers folks
Times are a changing the Saharan desert is growing and in control of this region. We will become increasingly arid in its wake.


That would be really really sad!
Quoting 325. Barefootontherocks:

smirk

Plus 1


Quoting 356. Tazmanian:



late july AUGS things will pick up


Some impressive Tropical Waves showing up in 7 to 10 days crossing the Atlantic. A couple crossing FL. Just about that time guys and to be hones the extent of this ridge across the Atlantic extending across the US has me worried. Has shades of July 1992 then we all know what happened in August. We might not have many MDR systems but the ones that manage to get going could be on a collision coarse with the US particularly FL.
Quoting 375. washingtonian115:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 10h10 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Old timers would call 500 mb ridge in hurricane season over NW atl "newfoundland wheel" would direct storm track at US

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
SST have reversed off east coast. Great for hitting the beach but enhanced temps rest of summer temps, hurricane implication later



Sometimes Joe Bastardi is spot on although the correlation between east coast SST and hurricane activity is not strong. Newfoundland High is a very strong predictor of lots of East Coast landfalls.
The Atlantic Coast of FL could be in for a Cape Verde hurricane this season as this monster ridge is projected to last well into September. We better hope something changes soon or were in for it here in FL and across the other Gulf Coast states.
Quoting 354. 19N81W:

Caribbean and Atlantic shut down time to change the numbers folks
Times are a changing the Saharan desert is growing and in control of this region. We will become increasingly arid in its wake.


If the Atlantic TC season is suppressed I'll be happy (more like relieved) But I don't think it will happen this year.
Quoting 391. georgevandenberghe:




Sometimes Joe Bastardi is spot on although the correlation between east coast SST and hurricane activity is not strong. Newfoundland High is a very strong predictor of lots of East Coast landfalls.


Not looking good going forward. A statistic came out by a meteorology firm stating that FL has a 51% chance of getting a hurricane and 21% chance of getting a major this year. Highest percentages by far compared to other states. Texas is second with 33% chance of getting a hurricane.
395. IDTH
Quoting 379. bigwes6844:

Eastern Pac is gonna have the MJO for awhile. We should see more activity there until the end of July if you are looking for any activity.



Quoting 375. washingtonian115:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 10h10 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Old timers would call 500 mb ridge in hurricane season over NW atl "newfoundland wheel" would direct storm track at US

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
SST have reversed off east coast. Great for hitting the beach but enhanced temps rest of summer temps, hurricane implication later

Do you ever just have that gut feeling that you just know something bad is going to happen in the coming months? Like I can't be the only one thinking about this. This is like when you see all the stars aligning for something disastrous but nothing is happening yet. Like I'm serious, this is not good, in fact this is a recipe for absolute disaster especially if the MJO arrives in the meat of August. I don't have time to sit and worry but every time I look at the heat content in the Caribbean I can't help but picture storms like Mitch and Wilma and combine that with the High pressure that is reminiscent of the one of some of the worst seasons in hurricane history that can lead tropical entities into those areas, you wonder why people aren't enjoying this lull.

If the season wounds up being dead by some miracle I will gladly eat my doomcasting crow, but I feel luck has ran out and a rude awakening is in store this season. I know I've said this again and again but I don't want people to say "The season's a bust" or "The Atlantic is dead forever" when the potential for not just a horrible storm is there but a cat 5, I'd rather have this season bust hard than have anything develop but even then it only allows those waters to remain untapped and build back up. The steering pattern is there, the waters are there, La Nina is coming and shear will be dropping as we go further into the climatological peak, if there was ever a time I'd be enjoying a lull, it would be right now because by the end of this season an area is going to get absolutely devastated and who wants to look back on comments about dead seasons in July. Sure I'm doing the opposite by saying this has the potential to be really bad but I'd rather look like someone over cautious than someone who's saying the season is dead in July of all times.

Long story short be prepared and enjoy the lull while it lasts.
Quoting 392. StormTrackerScott:

The Atlantic Coast of FL could be in for a Cape Verde hurricane this season as this monster ridge is projected to last well into September. We better hope something changes soon or were in for it here in FL and across the other Gulf Coast states.


I'm not real comfortable about escaping TC in the Mid Atlantic either!

But on a brighter note, July 10 is the traditional end of the organized severe weather season here in DC (second one starts mid September to early October and is much more muted). We can still get damage from microbursts and pulse thunderstorms and sometimes these organize into clusters. 2010 had several of these in the last half of summer when I usually don't worry as much about severe convective damage.
Quoting 394. StormTrackerScott:



Not looking good going forward. A statistic came out by a meteorology firm stating that FL has a 51% chance of getting a hurricane and 21% chance of getting a major this year. Highest percentages by far compared to other states. Texas is second with 33% chance of getting a hurricane.


You are right about the Gulf and FL and I was being provincial thinking about Northeast and Mid Atlantic strikes.
Point taken!
Quoting 394. StormTrackerScott:



Not looking good going forward. A statistic came out by a meteorology firm stating that FL has a 51% chance of getting a hurricane and 21% chance of getting a major this year. Highest percentages by far compared to other states. Texas is second with 33% chance of getting a hurricane.


So Katrina and Rita type paths....
June and July are always quiet its not 2005 when the Atlantic went crazy..Enjoy the dull times the Atlantic has a tendency even in slow years to put on a good show of activity for at least 6-8 weeks..Hope those who are crying for tropical activity are ready for what comes
Quoting 396. georgevandenberghe:



I'm not real comfortable about escaping TC in the Mid Atlantic either!

But on a brighter note, July 10 is the traditional end of the organized severe weather season here in DC (second one starts mid September to early October and is much more muted). We can still get damage from microbursts and pulse thunderstorms and sometimes these organize into clusters. 2010 had several of these in the last half of summer when I usually don't worry as much about severe convective damage.


Very true as we could have a situation like 2004 and 2005 where they recurve and go up the Eastern US. Either way the US is likely not going to come out of this season unscathed.
Quoting 308. barbamz:

Late greetings from a so called "tropical night" in Germany with temps not below 20C (68F) or higher as in my place near Frankfurt. But those hot temps are only a guest performance in Germany this year; tomorrow they'll already drop, not without some strong stroms in the north and the south.

Here is the latest of Nepartak's impacts in China:



Typhoon Nepartak leaves six dead, eight missing in east China
2016-07-11 00:32:52 Xinhua
Six people were killed and eight others remain missing after Typhoon Nepartak made landfall and swept through east China's Fujian and Jiangxi provinces, authorities said Sunday.
As of 5 p.m., 203,000 residents in ten cities had been temporarily relocated as the typhoon destroyed close to 1,900 houses, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said on late Sunday. A total of 449,000 people were affected.
Nearly 15,800 hectares of crops were damaged by the typhoon, of which 1,600 hectares were totally destroyed.
Direct economic losses were estimated at 860 million yuan (about 128.7 million U.S. dollars). ...



Between 1964 and 1978 Washington DC did not have a single night that did not drop below 80F (26.66C) sometime
during the night. Since the first one in July 1978 (when of course I had a job as an outdoor physical laborer at night), there have been many including a streak of four consecutive ones in 2011 and five consecutive ones in 2013.
Some really clear shots of Greenland coming in today , the Northeast coast , blue water every where with lots of glacial milk in fjords …………….

Aqua/MODIS
2016/193
07/11/2016
05:30 UTC

Link

The top half of Greenland , truly amazing images –
Aqua/MODIS
2016/193
07/11/2016
08:45 UTC

Link
Quoting 390. StormTrackerScott:



Some impressive Tropical Waves showing up in 7 to 10 days crossing the Atlantic. A couple crossing FL. Just about that time guys and to be hones the extent of this ridge across the Atlantic extending across the US has me worried. Has shades of July 1992 then we all know what happened in August. We might not have many MDR systems but the ones that manage to get going could be on a collision coarse with the US particularly FL.





At 4:28 minutes they get close to ground zero.
Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 387. RobertWC:



More than 800,000 people in India’s most populous state jostled for space Monday as they attempted to plant 50 million trees in 24 hours in the hopes of shattering the world record.

Link


Wow that's amazing! Thanks so much for posting this. The previous record being just over 800,000 in a day to 50 million - they'll beat the record by a massive landslide! Great to see India investing in projects such as this - I hope it'll resonate with other countries - particularly in the western world. The UK government promised to plant 11 million trees between 2015 and 2020 with 5,000 hectares being planted per year - but it's missing its target hugely with only 700 hectares planted in 2015. Tree planting has hit an all time low in the UK and in fact we're cutting down more trees than planting and are at risk of deforestation unless something changes soon.
Quoting 365. 19N81W:

I think it's more that many of us are starting to realize climatology wise our region (those that live down here) is becoming drier thus less storms.

Any facts to support your statements? Goodbye.