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Typhoon Mirinae less destructive than feared for Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:15 PM GMT on October 31, 2009

Typhoon Mirinae blew through the Philippines' Luzon Island yesterday as a borderline Category 1 to 2 typhoon with top winds of 95 - 100 mph. Due to the rapid forward motion of the typhoon and a sharp decrease in the storm's organization just prior to landfall, rainfall amounts from the typhoon were less than six inches over Luzon. The eye of Mirinae passed over the capital of Manila, where winds peaked at minimal tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 56 mph, at 6 am local time Saturday. Nearby weather stations recorded sustained winds as high as 44 mph, and rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches. Though Mirinae is being blamed for at least 11 deaths, with 7 people still missing, it's fair to say that the typhoon largely spared the Philippines. The Manila Bulletin is reporting that a tornado (called an "ipo-ipo" there) injured ten and destroyed some 60 houses in Cavite and Ternate as Mirinae swept through.

Mirinae, now just a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, is currently over the South China Sea. Mirinae is expected to make landfall in south-central Vietnam near 00 UTC on Monday, November 2. As Mirinae approaches Vietnam, wind shear will increase, sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the ocean will sharply decrease, and the storm will encounter cooler, more stable air. These negative influences should make Mirinae a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm at landfall in Vietnam.


Figure 1. Filipinos watch the onslaught of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: Jim Edds. His extremestorms.com website has images and videos from the landfall of Mirinae.

Quiet in the Atlantic
A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 30N 50W, 700 miles east of Bermuda, has cut off from the jet stream. This low will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next three days. It is possible that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida, though I put the chances at low, less than 30%. SSTs are 25 - 26° C in the region, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is high, 30 - 50 knots, and there is a large amount of dry air to the west of the low, so no development will occur today. The storm is expected to recurve to the north well east of Bermuda on Tuesday.

None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical storm development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The GFS and NOGAPS models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week, and it is possible that this development could occur on the Atlantic side of Central America instead, as suggested by the Canadian model.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments




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Humor in Comments

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
502. MayFL
Quoting Weather456:
We have a warm core people



Good Sunday

Good job as always, you were pretty much spot on even though I had no idea that Dr. Masters mentions other bloggers in his entries.

Have you ever considered becoming a featured blogger?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Rum will do that for you ;)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Rum will do that for you ;)


You have to forgive me but I don't drink. But I've heard alcohol does that to you, lol


latest still shows a nice CDO
Quoting MayFL:


Good Sunday

Good job as always, you were pretty much spot on even though I had no idea that Dr. Masters mentions other bloggers in his entries.

Have you ever considered becoming a featured blogger?


He already is one
Quoting MayFL:


Good Sunday

Good job as always, you were pretty much spot on even though I had no idea that Dr. Masters mentions other bloggers in his entries.

Have you ever considered becoming a featured blogger?


You are really new, I am one already, lol

Solid warm core down to the mid-levels

507. MayFL
Quoting Orcasystems:


He already is one


I must be off my rockets. How do you tell?
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (2200z 01NOV)
===============================================
An area of convection (97W) located at 17.8N 126.3E or 360 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines has persisted over the past 12 hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection building over an organized low level circulation center. Moderate vertical wind shear to the north of the low level circulation center has been fueling the recent increase in poleward outflow. A 1215z ASCAT Pass showed winds along the northern portion of the low level circulation center were being enhanced by northeasterly flow out of the East China Sea and were between 20-25 knots. Sea surface temperatures are currently favorable for development but are decreasing as the low level circulation center tracks to the west-northwest and will likely drop below 28C within the next 12-24 hrs. Increasing northeasterly flow will likely help spin the system up within the next 12-24 hours as the low level circulation center moves towards northern Luzon. The interaction with the northeasterly cold surge occuring over the East China Sea will make development potential questionable in the long term. However,in the short term development is favorable. Based on increasing low level circulation center organization, favorable upper level outflow and marginally favorable sea surface temperature values, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD
Quoting Weather456:


You are really new, I am one already, lol

Solid warm core down to the mid-levels



OK, Put you on the spot....warm core... winds are high enough... so does it get a name... your call... yes/no?
Quoting Orcasystems:


OK, warm core... winds are high enough... so does it get a name... your call... yes/no?


The winds, warm-core, SSTs, numerical models, satellite presentations, Herbert ST numbers, I am leaning towards Ida.
Quoting Weather456:


The winds, warm-core, SSTs, numerical models, satellite presentations, Herbert ST numbers, I am leaning towards Ida.


Good enough for a yes to me.
A short overview of how the system formed

Look at bermuda on the left... bet they are glad this didnt form about 100 miles west! That said, i'm not seeing this Northwest turn, when is it supposed to occur? Its been moving near due west all day.
Quoting winter123:
Look at bermuda on the left... bet they are glad this didnt form about 100 miles west! That said, i'm not seeing this Northwest turn, when is it supposed to occur? Its been moving near due west all day.


The system has been moving in the general direction of wnw or nw.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/1745 UTC 32.6N 55.3W ST2.5 96L
01/1145 UTC 31.6N 53.1W ST2.5 INVEST
01/0545 UTC 30.7N 51.4W ST2.5 INVEST
Not to get off topic...but Vista sucks...I never had so many problems till I changed over to vista.
Wow, this is just like Otto from the el nino 2004 year... Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


INV/96L/STS/X
MARK
33.1N/56.2W

I agree, this looks like TS Grace, JR!!
Quoting Weather456:
Not to get off topic...but Vista sucks...I never had so many problems till I changed over to vista.
i run vista pro no problems except for one complete crash in 3 years thinking of upgrading to windows 7 ultimate
Occluded with decaying fronts. I suspect the NHC will take actions after the next analysis charts at 11PM.

Quoting Bordonaro:

I agree, this looks like TS Grace, JR!!


Still too early to name this, Grace was looking great and was fully warm cored.. I'm starting to give this a higher chance (50+) for Ida to develop out of this. It's organizing quite well today.
Quoting reedzone:


Still too early to name this, Grace was looking great and was fully warm cored.. I'm starting to give this a higher chance (50+) for Ida to develop out of this. It's organizing quite well today.
thats what i figured red at 7 pm maybe a name at 11 like 456 has suggested as well
Quoting Weather456:
Occluded with decaying fronts. I suspect the NHC will take actions after the next analysis charts at 11PM.



What does that mean? No chance of STS at 8?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats what i figured red at 7 pm maybe a name at 11 like 456 has suggested as well


Remember its EST, so your correct with a 7 p.m TWO, but they would name it at 10 p.m EST.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i run vista pro no problems except for one complete crash in 3 years thinking of upgrading to windows 7 ultimate


Going out Monday and get two of those little laptops and a new large one.. all running 7
Quoting winter123:


What does that mean? No chance of STS at 8?
red at seven remember time shift
Ahh the time shift, makes them come in earlier.. I remember now.
let me know how ya like 7 orca after your done trying it
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats what i figured red at 7 pm maybe a name at 11 like 456 has suggested as well


after the 11PM surface maps means 2mr morning. I skeptical of naming tonight.
warm core 55mph winds ahould be call a name storm ...tropical or subtropical....
Also I get the tropical products at 8PM AST or 0000 UTC.
Quoting jurakantaino:
warm core 55mph winds ahould be call a name storm ......


This is insane... it really does need to pass some magical arbitrary line of organization made up by the NHC. If this went poof right now, even though it was short lived, it was warm core and over 35mph so it was a Tropical Storm!
456, do u guys change to DST? I know some ECar islands don't. This means that for 1/2 the year the Bahamas is on the same time as they are. Today we are back to the 1 hour apart.
533. beell
Looking even better at 2012Z

Quoting winter123:


This is insane... it really does need to pass some magical arbitrary line of organization made up by the NHC. If this went poof right now, even though it was short lived, it was warm core and over 35mph so it was a Tropical Storm!


In the mid-levels, it's warm core.. Still needs to go down to the surface, looks can be deceiving, it looks tropical, but in reality, it is a non-tropical low. This could change by tomorrow however.
535. beell
note the rapid change from post 506 at 1737Z in the desending, warming (by compression) core at the upper levels.
Quoting reedzone:


In the mid-levels, it's warm core.. Still needs to go down to the surface, looks can be deceiving, it looks tropical, but in reality, it is a non-tropical low. This could change by tomorrow however.


That is not true. There is no importance stressed on a surface warm-core when we talk about tropical and subtropical cyclones. A cyclone's warm core is aloft (mid-levels to upper upper levels). That is the area which important as there is where the winds are driven.
Quoting beell:
note the rapid change from post 506 at 1737Z in the desending, warming (by compression) core at the upper levels.


compression? That would indicate sinking air, you mean condensation?
538. beell
descending and warming air in the "eye" is a characteristic of all tropical systems.

STS through, dare I say hurricane?
539. beell
537. At least that's how I interpret this imagery. The warming "spike" is directly over the center.
540. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL GALE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
541. IKE
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 01 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

IN TERMS OF NUMBERS...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING OCTOBER WAS
NEAR AVERAGE WITH TWO NAMED STORMS. HOWEVER...NEITHER OF THESE
STORMS BECAME HURRICANES...WHEREAS THE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER IS ONE
HURRICANE. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...WHICH
MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES...OCTOBER ACE WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT ONLY 18 PERCENT
OF THE LONG-TERM MEAN DUE TO THE SHORT DURATIONS OF TROPICAL STORMS
GRACE AND HENRI.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2009ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
-------------------------------------------------
TD ONE 28-29 MAY 35
TS ANA 11-16 AUG 40
MH BILL 15-24 AUG 135
TS CLAUDETTE 16-18 AUG 50
TS DANNY 26-29 AUG 60
TS ERIKA 1- 4 SEP 60
MH FRED 7-12 SEP 120
TD EIGHT 25-26 SEP 35
TS GRACE 4-6 OCT 70
TS HENRI 6-8 OCT 50

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALISTS UNIT
RED alert for 96L
Quoting beell:
descending and warming air in the "eye" is a characteristic of all tropical systems.

STS through, dare I say hurricane?


oh ok, just wanted to know what you really meant.
Quoting Weather456:


oh ok, just wanted to know what you really meant.


some of it is also heat of condensation.
545. beell
The descending air from the tops of the t-storms/convection upon reaching its EL-equilibrium level.

Farther S in the tropics, more convection, more desending air, sharper and quicker deliniation between air going up and air going down-a truly warm core eye is born. Provided upper level winds do not disrupt this delicate process.
Sun is just beginning to come up..

Click pic for loop
Quoting IKE:
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 01 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

IN TERMS OF NUMBERS...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING OCTOBER WAS
NEAR AVERAGE WITH TWO NAMED STORMS. HOWEVER...NEITHER OF THESE
STORMS BECAME HURRICANES...WHEREAS THE AVERAGE FOR OCTOBER IS ONE
HURRICANE. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...ACE...WHICH
MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES...OCTOBER ACE WAS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT ONLY 18 PERCENT
OF THE LONG-TERM MEAN DUE TO THE SHORT DURATIONS OF TROPICAL STORMS
GRACE AND HENRI.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2009ATLAN.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
-------------------------------------------------
TD ONE 28-29 MAY 35
TS ANA 11-16 AUG 40
MH BILL 15-24 AUG 135
TS CLAUDETTE 16-18 AUG 50
TS DANNY 26-29 AUG 60
TS ERIKA 1- 4 SEP 60
MH FRED 7-12 SEP 120
TD EIGHT 25-26 SEP 35
TS GRACE 4-6 OCT 70
TS HENRI 6-8 OCT 50

$$
HURRICANE SPECIALISTS UNIT
Not an expert but it has been detach from the front since last night to say the least...
Sure feel sorry for all the people in the Phillipines, its been a very rough year for them tropically speaking.
Quoting beell:
Looking even better at 2012Z



Can someone tell me how to read this? Looks like a bunch of colors and nonsense to me. I can read what the axes are... thats as far as i got in like a solid minute.
Also, how is this system frontal? Theres a front near it but it's not embedded in it or getting energy from it. I never knew where they draw the line on that.


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL GALE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

Quoting winter123:
Also, how is this system frontal? Theres a front near it but it's not embedded in it or getting energy from it. I never knew where they draw the line on that.


eh.. guess i just answered my own question with this


000
ABPZ30 KNHC 011247
TWSEP
MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM PST SUN NOV 01 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY DURING OCTOBER WAS ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
THREE TROPICAL STORMS...ONE OF WHICH STRENGTHENED INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES ARE TWO TROPICAL STORMS AND ONE
HURRICANE...WITH A MAJOR HURRICANE OCCURRING ABOUT EVERY OTHER
YEAR. IN TERMS OF THE ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...A COMBINED
MEASURE OF THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND
HURRICANES...OCTOBER WAS 59 PERCENT ABOVE THE LONG-TERM MEAN...DUE
IN LARGE PART TO HURRICANE RICK
. OF NOTE...RICK BECAME THE SECOND
STRONGEST EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE AFTER HURRICANE LINDA OF 1997
AND THE STRONGEST HURRICANE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SINCE THE
BEGINNING OF RELIABLE RECORDS.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/2009EPAC.SHTML

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH)
-------------------------------------------------
TD ONE-E 18-19 JUN 35
H ANDRES 21-24 JUN 80
TS BLANCA 6-9 JUL 50
H CARLOS 10-16 JUL 105
TS DOLORES 15-17 JUL 50
TS LANA* 30 JUL-3 AUG 65
TS ENRIQUE 3-7 AUG 65
MH FELICIA 4-11 AUG 140
TD NINE-E 9-11 AUG 35
MH GUILLERMO 12-20 AUG 125
TS HILDA 22-28 AUG 65
TS IGNACIO 24-27 AUG 50
MH JIMENA 29 AUG-4 SEP 155
TS KEVIN 29 AUG-1 SEP 50
H LINDA 7-11 SEP 80
TS MARTY 16-19 SEP 45
TS NORA 23-25 SEP 60
TS OLAF 1-4 OCT 45
TS PATRICIA 11-14 OCT 60
MH RICK 14-21 OCT 180
-------------------------------------------------

*LANA DEVELOPED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E THAT FORMED IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. HOWEVER...IT DID NOT REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH UNTIL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THEREFORE IT
WAS GIVEN A NAME FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN LIST OF NAMES
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Go Wildcats!!!!! Beat those o so nasty Jets....


It was a beautiful thing, a sweep of those nasty, rotten and stinkin' NY Jets.
this map cant be right


456 Does it look like theres any potential in the SW Caribbean right now?
557. beell
Quoting winter123:


Can someone tell me how to read this? Looks like a bunch of colors and nonsense to me. I can read what the axes are... thats as far as i got in like a solid minute.


Well, I'll try-I may have some of it wrong but,
First off, it is measured in kelvin-an absolute temperature scale. So we can kinda forget what the actual temps are (C or F)it is really the change in the temp with height that is more important. So at the top of the red line as we descend in height the temperature changes or you could go up just as well. The greater change with height still evident over the center.

Note at the far upper left the negative numbers-they are close together. Cooling is occuring rapidly with height. Note the positive numbers packed together at the top of the red line (storm center).

Warming is greater here "relative" to the storm and near-storm environment-even if it aint deep in the tropics.

A notable change from the previous chart.

definitely a 55-60mph Tropical storm in my opinion, strongest winds right near the COC.
Oh no it's a giant hypercane, we're all doomed



XD i found it ironic/funny
Quoting stormpetrol:

definitely a 55-60mph Tropical storm in my opinion, strongest winds right near the COC.

this quikscat is also typical of some of those strong gale centers also.
Hahaha the weather channel just TRASHED this system. "NO chance, too much dry air, NOOOO chance" etc. Guess they want to spite the NHC lol.
563. jipmg
Quoting stormpetrol:

definitely a 55-60mph Tropical storm in my opinion, strongest winds right near the COC.


The size of that thing is outrages 0-0
Low near 32N 55W a LOW(10-25%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Wave near 53W south of 15N a LOW(10-25%) of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Wave near 71W south of 15N a VERY LOW(<10%) of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

(Based on current environmental conditions.)

NOTE: The low mentioned above has that chance because how I rate AOI's is based on tropical cyclone formation, not sub-tropical cyclone formation.
I give it a very good and possible chance that we will be tracking "Ida" tomorrow. Banding is very evident, winds near center, hopefully they're not making that same mistake they made with Grace. I think this is already at least a Hybrid system and the NHC is hinting it is to by the code red circle.
566. P451
Great stuff today, Weather456, much appreciated! As well to you, beell!

The lone thing I have with potential STS-Ida is the moisture content (Again, 456, thanks for the mid-level WV map, I couldn't remember where to find that, but I still didn't see much improvement).



Yet, as I know, late season tropical entities aren't as "tall" as mid season ones so these images might not represent what is truly there.

Also the rules that apply to deep tropical mid-season systems are not the same as these late season hybrids that form over colder water and aren't as far reaching into the upper atmosphere.

Interesting entity for sure, I wouldn't be surprised if it gets named, but it's another borderline system.

This go around? Where is the moisture?
Quoting Magicchaos:
Low near 32N 55W a LOW(10-25%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Wave near 53W south of 15N a LOW(10-25%) of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Wave near 71W south of 15N a VERY LOW(<10%) of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

(Based on current environmental conditions.)

NOTE: The low mentioned above has that chance because how I rate AOI's is based on tropical cyclone formation, not sub-tropical cyclone formation.


I have to dissagree on that, it has at least a medium chance for full tropical formation with 96L due to it's organization today. It could turn out to be Subtropical then tropical in my opinion. We'll see what happens.
Quoting reedzone:


I have to dissagree on that, it has at least a medium chance for full tropical formation with 96L due to it's organization today. It could turn out to be Subtropical then tropical in my opinion. We'll see what happens.


I feel the same way. Its just that it is basically a rating based on the environment and doesn't really take account of other factors.

I am also keeping an eye on the ATCF page incase of a renumber.
Somehow this seems fitting in Act III of 2009 Hurricane Season.
Could the Phillipines be getting spared?!
Don't know why some think we will have Tropical Storm Ida, it not a true tropical system, its an hybrid so it will most likely be Subtropical Storm Ida.
Quoting reedzone:
I give it a very good and possible chance that we will be tracking "Ida" tomorrow. Banding is very evident, winds near center, hopefully they're not making that same mistake they made with Grace. I think this is already at least a Hybrid system and the NHC is hinting it is to by the code red circle.


...And now there is outflow and heavy convection on the south and east side. The issue is, there is a front wrapping into the left side still, giving it energy... hence it's not self-sufficient so it cant be tropical. Should change within 12 hours though. Convection is already trying to wrap around to the north side.
Soon-to-be STS Ida does not have much time left. It will get absorbed by a weak trough and will slowly moving into cooler waters...

18Z Tomorrow: interacts and absorbed by upper level jet



This system will be over with within 36hrs...
Quoting Weather456:
We have a warm core people



Hopefully NHC names it soon, for it does not have much time left.
575. xcool



Quoting Weather456:
Don't know why some think we will have Tropical Storm Ida, it not a true tropical system, its an hybrid so it will most likely be Subtropical Storm Ida.


I'm not saying it will be Tropical, definitely Subtropical at best, earlier I thought it might have enough time to become Tropical after it becoming Subtropical. After futuremet pointed out that it will get caught up with a trough earlier then what I had expected, it will most likely stay Subtropical. It is organizing well today and tonight. I won't be surprised if they pull the trigger by 4 a.m. tomorrow
Warm Core? Is Warm Sound close enough??
img src="" alt="" />
578. beell
P451, Thanks.
Available moisture would seem to place a limit on intensification. Also creeping towards cooler SST's.

But whether it does or does not make the grade it could be the last system we see in the ATL Basin this year (not that we won't keep watching!). It will be at least memorable in the fact that it could end up being a pretty near textbook STS to argue about!
579. beell
Quoting reedzone:


I'm not saying it will be Tropical, definitely Subtropical at best, earlier I thought it might have enough time to become Tropical after it becoming Subtropical. After futuremet pointed out that it will get caught up with a trough earlier then what I had expected, it will most likely stay Subtropical. It is organizing well today and tonight. I won't be surprised if they pull the trigger by 4 a.m. tomorrow


Actually, if you look down through all the levels on the GFS, the upper trough deamplifies and moves off to the east. The lower levels continue on to the NW and N as an intact circulation. But it's a model-who knows?
Quoting xcool:





oh... its clipper season! Looks like I may see some snow (central NY) with the next two systems. Thanks for that post.
581. xcool
winter123 welcome.
Quoting beell:


Actually, if you look down through all the levels on the GFS, the upper trough deamplifies and moves off to the east. The lower levels continue on to the NW and N as an intact circulation. But it's a model-who knows?


If you continue to the loop, you will notice that it will be completely absorbed by 48hrs. It will start to lose its subtropical characteristics during tomorrow night.

Great system nonetheless

HYPERCANE!!

nice 200mb presentation

583. beell
Certainly won't argue the available time, futuremet.

Check out the difference in the position of the 200mb trough axis vs the 850mb center.
Both 18Z at 30hrs

200mb


850mb
Quoting futuremet:


If you continue to the loop, you will notice that it will be completely absorbed by 48hrs. It will start to lose its subtropical characteristics during tomorrow night.

Great system nonetheless

HYPERCANE!!

nice 200mb presentation



heh, thats what i said, this system is so odd...

Quoting winter123:
Oh no it's a giant hypercane, we're all doomed



XD i found it ironic/funny
AL, 96, 2009110200, , BEST, 0, 331N, 567W, 50, 998, EX

Well according to ATCF, this is already Extra-tropical; unless the NHC disagrees; we will not see Ida out of 96L
Quoting winter123:


heh, thats what i said, this system is so odd...



Trust me its not odd

First subtropical cyclones are embedded within broad upper lows and troughs...is one of the things that make them subtropical, like Andrea and Jerry.

Second in the Herbert Poteat technique for subtropical cyclones which give 96L ST 3 based on my interpretations; the upper low is an essential part of the cloud patterns.
587. beell
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
AL, 96, 2009110200, , BEST, 0, 331N, 567W, 50, 998, EX

Well according to ATCF, this is already Extra-tropical; unless the NHC disagrees; we will not see Ida out of 96L



Appreciate that post, BAP!
Seems like a good time to make a hasty exit!
Good Night, all.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
AL, 96, 2009110200, , BEST, 0, 331N, 567W, 50, 998, EX

Well according to ATCF, this is already Extra-tropical; unless the NHC disagrees; we will not see Ida out of 96L


trust me...based on the evidence this is far from extra-tropical. It probably have it so because it wont be upgraded tonight or it's non-tropical but if you read back the first few pages this feature is not extra-tropical.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
AL, 96, 2009110200, , BEST, 0, 331N, 567W, 50, 998, EX

Well according to ATCF, this is already Extra-tropical; unless the NHC disagrees; we will not see Ida out of 96L


Said it right before grace was formed too.
Quoting Weather456:


trust me...based on the evidence this is far from extra-tropical. It probably have it so because it wont be upgraded tonight or it's non-tropical but if you read back the first few pages this feature is not extra-tropical.


Yea looking at it I agree, just not sure why the ATCF would put the EX on there
Looks like a cookie someone took a bite out of the left side of...

96L is not tropical, as evidenced by a pronounced area of cyclonic turning at 200 mb, as noted on the CIMSS graph futuremet posted.

Well according to ATCF, this is already Extra-tropical; unless the NHC disagrees; we will not see Ida out of 96L


Not surprised...especially in a year like this
Quoting winter123:
Looks like a cookie someone took a bite out of the left side of...



It will likely look like a comma tomorrow night. I don't think Ida will form out of this one.

BTW, conditions are apparently will get a bit more favorable in the caribbean soon. The perpetual ridging pattern over the east coast is finally ending.
Quoting futuremet:


It will likely look like a comma tomorrow night. I don't think Ida will form out of this one.

BTW, conditions are apparently will get a bit more favorable in the caribbean soon. The perpetual ridging pattern over the east coast is finally ending.


to sum up the 2009 season; a lot of hype on many systems, and all came up short of the hype

Quoting KoritheMan:
96L is not tropical, as evidenced by a pronounced area of cyclonic turning at 200 mb, as noted on the CIMSS graph futuremet posted.


lol, That was quite established throughout the day.
quikscat has a presentation more like a gale center, even though the strongest winds are closest to the center, those that say subtropical are probably correct, as it is gale with subtropical characteristics, and I guess one or 2 tropical features at best, jmo.
Quoting futuremet:


It will likely look like a comma tomorrow night. I don't think Ida will form out of this one.

BTW, conditions are apparently will get a bit more favorable in the caribbean soon. The perpetual ridging pattern over the east coast is finally ending.


You are not looking at the supporting evidence

strongest winds near center
warm core in the upper and lower levels
decaying frontal boundaries
latent heat fluxes
ST numbers and cloud patterns typical of organized hybrid systems
ssts above the 23C mark.

The only opposing factor is the time frame which I really do not see how is related to now since these dont normally last long.
I think we'll see subtropical 55 mph Ida at 10pm.
Quoting Weather456:



lol, That was quite established throughout the day.


I just got on. :P
It appears that Subtropical Ida will be designated by 4 a.m. tomorrow morning if it keeps up the organization. If they were to designate it by 10 p.m., the Navy site would have already renumbered it 09L IDA, so no Ida tonight. Tomorrow morning? Most likely.
repost, and bookmarking, thanks to whoever found these :)

Quoting reedzone:
It appears that Subtropical Ida will be designated by 4 a.m. tomorrow morning if it keeps up the organization. If they were to designate it by 10 p.m., the Navy site would have already renumbered it 09L IDA, so no Ida tonight. Tomorrow morning? Most likely.


Correction

11L Ida
605. xcool


Very define and tight COC



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Extratropical cyclone
Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are a group of cyclones defined as synoptic scale low pressure weather systems that occur in the middle latitudes of the Earth (outside the tropics) having neither tropical nor polar characteristics, and are connected with fronts and horizontal gradients in temperature and dew point otherwise known as "baroclinic zones".[1] Extratropical cyclones are the everyday phenomena which, along with anticyclones, drive the weather over much of the Earth, producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to heavy gales and thunderstorms.


Subtropical cyclone
A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical and an extratropical cyclone. As early as the 1950s, meteorologists were unclear whether they should be characterized as tropical or extratropical cyclones. They were officially recognized by the National Hurricane Center in 1972. Subtropical cyclones began to receive names off the official tropical cyclone lists in the Atlantic Basin and the southwest Indian ocean.
There are two definitions currently used for subtropical cyclones. Across the north Atlantic and southwest Indian ocean, they require central convection fairly near the center and a warming core in the mid-levels of the troposphere. Across the eastern half of the northern Pacific, they require a mid-tropospheric cyclone to cut off from the main belt of the westerlies and only a weak surface circulation. Subtropical cyclones have broad wind patterns with maximum sustained winds located farther from the center than typical tropical cyclones, and have no weather fronts linked into their center.

Since they form from initially extratropical cyclones which have colder temperatures aloft than normally found in the tropics, the sea surface temperatures required for their formation are lower than the tropical cyclone threshold by 3°C (5°F), lying around 23 °C (73 °F). This also means that subtropical cyclones are more likely to form outside the traditional bounds of the hurricane season.
610. xcool
Join me tonight November 1st for the next edition of the weather and the media show. My guest will be Joe Bastardi from accuweather as we discuss the quiet hurricane season and why this is happening. The program will start at 8:00PM ET November 1st right here on


http://hurricanecity.com/
Miranae... wait for it...

wait for it..........

I THINK I SEE A EYE!

Quoting xcool:
Join me tonight November 1st for the next edition of the weather and the media show. My guest will be Joe Bastardi from accuweather as we discuss the quiet hurricane season and why this is happening. The program will start at 8:00PM ET November 1st right here on


http://hurricanecity.com/


What!! It's 10ET now.
Thanks Weather456,I forgot about the 2 depressions, 11L IDA
614. xcool
winter123 too later now opps
come on... this thing looks a lot better than Laura last year, I still cannot believe that thing was named. Very sparse convection, almost a naked swirl most of the time, barely warm core...

Loop
Went to a halloween party last night and one of the kids was really sick. Dx'd with h1n1 today. Having a complete panic at this point b/c my kid has juvenile diabetes and we haven't been able to get a vaccine. Soooooo happy we went to that party. I feel like it's a bit out of the book "World Without End"...you hear someone cough, sneeze whatever and you're like "ughhhhhh".
Phase Diagram 1: Lower Troposphere Thermal Wind Vs Lower Troposphere Frontal Nature



Phase Diagram 2: Lower Troposphere Thermal Wind Vs Upper Troposphere Thermal Wind
What happened to StormW
Quoting winter123:
come on... this thing looks a lot better than Laura last year, I still cannot believe that thing was named. Very sparse convection, almost a naked swirl most of the time, barely warm core...

Loop




i want a cold front
621. beell
There ya go P451-if you're still here.
Wrapping in some dry air right to the heart

Looking kinda frontal again?
Not gonna make it...

SSD WV Loop
Melwerle, u have WU mail.

Secretary of HHS said lots more H1N1 vaccine coming this week; stand by to stand by :-)

Anyone around in '57 and before has already been exposed to same strain of flu, so not so much worry about this group.
Invest 96W
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 127.2E TO 19.0N 122.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 012030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8N 126.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS
Quoting AussieStorm:
Invest 96W
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.3N 127.2E TO 19.0N 122.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 012030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8N 126.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS



thats 97W
cloudtops lowering... is it d-min? It won't be named if this continues. Finally has a bit of convection on the west side of it however. But a very small bit.
Blog Update

Games are getting Interesting tonight now :)
good evening guys
I really don't know why you all are saying it won't be named now, it's a Hybrid Low, possibly a Subtropical Storm. The evidence is there as Weather456 pointed out, it's looking better tonight, it even has an eye like feature. We'll see what the NHC does tomorrow morning, I think it deserves a name if it continues to organize by morning.
629. xcool
:0
...was there a new surface map at 11? Can someone post it? Just curious if they still think this is frontal (it definitely isnt by now.
Quoting winter123:
...was there a new surface map at 11? Can someone post it? Just curious if they still think this is frontal (it definitely isnt by now.


HERE YA GO

a little warm up from us TD we are cool all week with some wet flurries poss by end of week
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a little warm up for us TD


Yeah, not much tho, it got down to 30 last night :P
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a little warm up for us TD


I keep checking... waiting for the Centre of the Universe to start snowing and freeze over :)
46.2 here now
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
46.2 here now


I have 47.5
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


HERE YA GO


lol, "STORM"... looks like they're still calling it frontal. Not that I do think it deserves a name based in its presentation at the moment, but they really are finding any excuse to never name this. Too much paperwork?
Quoting Orcasystems:


I keep checking... waiting for the Centre of the Universe to start snowing and freeze over :)
as soon as it does i will let ya know
Quoting winter123:

Too much paperwork?


It's the government, is there such thing as too much paperwork for them? :P
guess my attempt at humor without any weather related content killed the blog
642. xcool
lol noo matt
Quoting xcool:
lol noo matt


lol well, how is your weather?

I have decided to keep the majority of my posts weather related(I'm sure people are glad to hear this) since people were really giving me a hard time about it the other day. I just always tried to keep the blog in good spirits by trying to insert some humor here and there, but some of the bloggers did not like it, and I will respect them, that way I can attempt to avoid further bashing.
I have a new blog entry. It's long. Just click my name for some pure methane gas.
645. xcool
tornadodude cold outside :(
Quoting xcool:
tornadodude cold outside :(


yeah same here, I like the cold temperatures tho, and I am definitely anticipating some good snows this year (:
647. xcool
not me i hate cold weather too cold for me i guess i"m get old .
Quoting xcool:
not me i hate cold weather too cold for me i guess i"m get old .


maybe, I guess some like it, others hate it.
ok, well I am going to bed, so goodnight all
650. xcool
bye
has an eye now... but such low clouds theres no way it would ever be named. Unless this is the diurnal min causing this, I'm going to pronounce this storm dead... was probably part warm core for a few hours but it's not worthy of a name unless it magically bombs soon.


(guess i'm the only one staying up till the 4am advisory... lol... have too, roommate plays music till at least then)
One of the more interesting subtropical systems we've seen. I count four centers of circulation, which I suspect may kill the central low level core. Very typical this season. Anytime something tries to develop, it's snuffed out by, or becomes embedded within an ULL. WE haven't seen many storms that jump in intensity, at all.

I'm amazed that nothing has tried to form in the Caribbean. Nothing seems stable aloft.
It's impossible that MIRINAE was a 45kt tropical storm... I don't believe it



02/0230 UTC 13.1N 110.3E T5.0/5.0 MIRINAE -- West Pacific
655. IKE
Bye-bye 96L....Ida don't see an Ida out of this....

Quoting IKE:
Bye-bye 96L....Ida don't see an Ida out of this....



+1 It indeed have subtropical characteristics, but time is not in its favor.

It will continue to weaken as the day progressesl
300mb

Absorbed by the upper level jet

Later tonight

As the anomalous stagnant ridging pattern finishes, troughs are starting to return to the east coast. Because of the unusual ridging pattern we had this October, the bulk of the moisture in the W caribbean were advected westward toward land. The deep layered highs also caused major subsidence and low level divergence over the area. Such a pattern can bust tropical cyclogenesis, despite the presence of a positive MJO.

The normal fall weather pattern seems to be establishing, and that means vigorous troughs will be more prevalent. Unlike ridges, troughs cause a northward movement of the moisture in the SW Caribbean, and prolong their existence. This usually causes the formation of upper level high pressure systems (200-500mb)--which help ventilate tropical systems. This is exactly what the models have been showing the past couple days--decreasing surface pressure and favorable a favorable upper air environment later this week.

Models expecting some sort developmentL

CMC, ECMWF, GFS, and NAM.
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

The low pressure area East of Northern Luzon has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "TINO".

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Tino located at 17.7ºN 124.5ºE or 270 kms east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 kts).

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warnings #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Isabela
2.Cagayan
3.Babuyan
4.Calayan Islands
5.Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

However, the rest of Northern Luzon will have occasional rains and gusty winds due to the surge of the Northeast monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Good Morning...
661. IKE
Dry-air has gotten into 96L....it's RIP for it....

662. IKE
Quoting futuremet:
As the anomalous stagnant ridging pattern finishes, troughs are starting to return to the east coast. Because of the unusual ridging pattern we had this October, the bulk of the moisture in the W caribbean were advected westward toward land. The deep layered highs also caused major subsidence and low level divergence over the area. Such a pattern can bust tropical cyclogenesis, despite the presence of a positive MJO.

The normal fall weather pattern seems to be establishing, and that means vigorous troughs will be more prevalent. Unlike ridges, troughs cause a northward movement of the moisture in the SW Caribbean, and prolong their existence. This usually causes the formation of upper level high pressure systems (200-500mb)--which help ventilate tropical systems. This is exactly what the models have been showing the past couple days--decreasing surface pressure and favorable a favorable upper air environment later this week.

Models expecting some sort developmentL

CMC, ECMWF, GFS, and NAM.


6Z GFS shows a gulf low.

00Z ECMWF shows one...albeit weaker than yesterdays 12Z run.

Problem is...

(1)Will it be tropical?
(2)It's November.
(3)No tropical system has formed or moved beyond 87W all season...in 155 days of it.
Quoting IKE:


6Z GFS shows a gulf low.

00Z ECMWF shows one...albeit weaker than yesterdays 12Z run.

Problem is...

(1)Will it be tropical?
(2)It's November.
(3)No tropical system has formed or moved beyond 87W all season...in 155 days of it.


Most likely


664. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


Most likely




I see that. Thanks.

Looks like the floater on 96L hasn't updated since 0845UTC.
Quoting futuremet:


1 It indeed have subtropical characteristics, but time is not in its favor.

It will continue to weaken as the day progressesl


Good Morning all

What a difference a night makes...but it came close enough
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
423 AM CST MON NOV 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
...BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF RAPIDLY BRING BACK MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...GENERATING
A SFC LOW TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN GULF BY MON. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT THIS LOW WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL...BUT COULD GENERATE ANOTHER
HEALTY DOUSING OF PRECIPITATION IF THIS PANS OUT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
510 AM CST MON NOV 2 2009

MODELS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT NOW SEEM BENT ON THIS DEVELOPMENT.
UPPER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE VERY STRONG SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT BUT WON`T RULE OUT SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT YET. HAVE
STARTED INCREASING POPS OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRINGING IN CLOUDS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS VERY LOW.

1 vote extra
1 vote Sub

667. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
350 AM CST MON NOV 2 2009

.SHORT TERM...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. FOCUS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT FROM GOOD WEATHER TO BAD AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. A
DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER MEXICO PROVIDING UPPER RIDGING AND
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GULF. SOMETHING TO WATCH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO ISSUES IN THE SHORT TO INTERMEDIATE
TERM THOUGH.


Mobile,AL. long-term...

"AT THE MOMENT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A SMALL LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF IS INDICATED FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK MOVING NORTHEAST. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE WOULD SEE POPS RISING MONDAY SHOULD SUBSEQUENT MODEL
OUTPUTS CONVERGE TO THIS SCENARIO...SO A CONTINUED FOCUS ON THAT
WOULD BE TAKEN IN FORECASTS SUBSEQUENT TO THIS ONE...WITH OR WITHOUT
A CHANGE IN THE ACTUAL FORECAST."
Doesn't really matter what its called. If it brings rain here its gonna be a mess. This is from the 10/31 discussion...

WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED TODAY...PRELIMINARY MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE AVAILABLE...WITH ALL OF OUR ASOS SITES RECORDING WITHIN
THE TOP 5 WETTEST OCTOBERS OF RECORD. HERE ARE THE MONTHLY
TOTALS:

ALEXANDRIA.........12.66"...3RD WETTEST
BEAUMONT...........14.90"...3RD WETTEST
LAKE CHARLES.......14.96"...3RD WETTEST
LAFAYETTE..........12.52"...5TH WETTEST
NEW IBERIA.........11.65"...2ND WETTEST

And we have this...

Flood Warning
Statement as of 9:36 PM CST on November 01, 2009



The Flood Warning continues for
the Sabine River near Deweyville.
* Until further notice... or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:45 PM Sunday the stage was 24.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 28.1 feet by
Friday morning with a Long Flat crest beginning at that time.
Additional rises may be possible thereafter. This forecast is highly
dependent on the releases at Toledo Bend.
* Impact... at 28.1 feet... this flooding will be similar to the
flooding experienced in the flood of March 2001. Homes in
Deweyville have water in them. Flooding of homes in the Indian
Lakes and River Oaks sections can be expected. In addition...
flooding of roads and low structures can be expected in
Calcasieu Parish from near aligator park to near I-10 including
the nibletts Bluff Park area. Low-lying roads and low structures
in Beauregard Parish near the river will be flooded. Preparations
for major flooding should be under way.
* This flood will be compareable to the flood of March 2001.

:(



670. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA
HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LOSING
ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN



From the latest discussion....

"...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1000 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
S OF THE LOW ALONG 29N57W 26N59W 24N64W. A DYING STATIONARY
FRONT ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE E ALONG
41N51W 32N49W 26N50W 21N55W THEN W N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 20N64W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 33N55W SUPPORTS THE SYSTEM. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS N OF 17N BETWEEN 45W-54W...BECOMING
STRONG IN SOME AREAS NEAR THE FRONT. IF THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS
FRONTAL PROPERTIES...THEN THE LOW COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS
FAVORABLE AS THEY WERE. THE SURFACE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NW THEN NORTHWARD."

671. IKE
They are updating frames on the floater for 96L now...




O....kay......

Quoting torreoviedo:
It's impossible that MIRINAE was a 45kt tropical storm... I don't believe it



02/0230 UTC 13.1N 110.3E T5.0/5.0 MIRINAE -- West Pacific


You're right JTWC said it was a 65KT system at 0600Z, looks like the system intensified as it approached Vietnam. Dvorak 5.0=90KT, CAT 2
Typhoon!

Quoting homelesswanderer:
Doesn't really matter what its called. If it brings rain here its gonna be a mess. This is from the 10/31 discussion...

WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED TODAY...PRELIMINARY MONTHLY OCTOBER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE AVAILABLE...WITH ALL OF OUR ASOS SITES RECORDING WITHIN
THE TOP 5 WETTEST OCTOBERS OF RECORD. HERE ARE THE MONTHLY
TOTALS:

ALEXANDRIA.........12.66"...3RD WETTEST
BEAUMONT...........14.90"...3RD WETTEST
LAKE CHARLES.......14.96"...3RD WETTEST
LAFAYETTE..........12.52"...5TH WETTEST
NEW IBERIA.........11.65"...2ND WETTEST

And we have this...

Flood Warning
Statement as of 9:36 PM CST on November 01, 2009



The Flood Warning continues for
the Sabine River near Deweyville.
* Until further notice... or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:45 PM Sunday the stage was 24.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 28.1 feet by
Friday morning with a Long Flat crest beginning at that time.
Additional rises may be possible thereafter. This forecast is highly
dependent on the releases at Toledo Bend.
* Impact... at 28.1 feet... this flooding will be similar to the
flooding experienced in the flood of March 2001. Homes in
Deweyville have water in them. Flooding of homes in the Indian
Lakes and River Oaks sections can be expected. In addition...
flooding of roads and low structures can be expected in
Calcasieu Parish from near aligator park to near I-10 including
the nibletts Bluff Park area. Low-lying roads and low structures
in Beauregard Parish near the river will be flooded. Preparations
for major flooding should be under way.
* This flood will be compareable to the flood of March 2001.

:(





Hopefully the computer models are wrong here! It is also 7 days out from the "expected development" and the computer models this year have been on a "vacation to Tahiti" all hurricane season long!
all season long IKE has been on a RIP scene for most of the weather systems, be it invests tropical storms or hurricanes. maybe next season he should change his handle from IKE to RIP
Quoting stoormfury:
all season long IKE has been on a RIP scene for most of the weather systems, be it invests tropical storms or hurricanes. maybe next season he should change his handle from IKE to RIP


We will see next season goes.
Quoting stoormfury:
all season long IKE has been on a RIP scene for most of the weather systems, be it invests tropical storms or hurricanes. maybe next season he should change his handle from IKE to RIP
Ike has been right all season long and calls them as they are. I for one am grateful that he makes accurate assesment without emotional wishing involved.
Quoting stoormfury:
all season long IKE has been on a RIP scene for most of the weather systems, be it invests tropical storms or hurricanes. maybe next season he should change his handle from IKE to RIP
the character ike has been right lots of swell on the east coast of florida this wk.
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Ike has been right all season long and calls them as they are. I for one am grateful that he makes accurate assesment without emotional wishing involved.


I respectfully disagree. I have been here all season long and the character changed right after 93L in late June.
680. afj3
Is there something brewing in the SW GOM?
I read that the weather patterns right now are keeping the moisture and energy in the SW Caribbean hanging around longer! This is much different than Oct., when all the moisture was being pushed West. I really do believe the Northern Central Gulf Coast needs to keep and eye for developement late this week into early next week. Also something was said about high pressures at 18000 feet could help ventalation of a potential system. I dont really understand all of it, but it sounds like a possible concern!
Quoting Weather456:


I respectfully disagree. I have been here all season long and the character changed right after 93L in late June.


Then we agree to disagree. Keep up the good work, er.. good hobby Ike.
Quoting tornadofan:


Then we agree to disagree. Keep up the good work, er.. good hobby Ike.


When you (not you literally) sit here and present balanced information and people accuse you of wishcasting and immaturity when they themselves pick and chooses information to suite their needs becomes a problem. I fail to see what we gain from that.
684. MayFL
Quoting Weather456:


When you (not you literally) sit here and present balanced information and people accuse you of wishcasting and immaturity when they themselves pick and chooses information to suite their needs becomes a problem. I fail to see what we gain from that.


plus 1.

Don't let em' get to you. He is a hobbyist who feels his personal problems is greater than weather, which is a mockery of me, you, and others profession.
Quoting MayFL:


plus 1.

Don't let em' get to you. He is a hobbyist who feels his personal problems is greater than weather, which is a mockery of me, you, and others profession.


I just want to get this hurricane season behind me...I've had to much non-sense said to me.
Quoting Weather456:


I respectfully disagree. I have been here all season long and the character changed right after 93L in late June.
All I am sayin is I believe Ike makes an assesments and they are unbiased. You are also very well respected by me as being very accurate and unbiased. In other words the original post seemed to indicate that Ike has become an automatic RIP for everything and I have not seen that to be true.
Quoting eyesontheweather:
All I am sayin is I believe Ike makes an assesments and they are unbiased. You are also very well respected by me as being very accurate and unbiased. In other words the original post seemed to indicate that Ike has become an automatic RIP for everything and I have not seen that to be true.


ohok...I see ur point.
688. MayFL
Quoting Weather456:


I just want to get this hurricane season behind me...I've had to much non-sense said to me.


Will you be here and what are your predictions for next year?
the rich neighbors spent over 20 grand on hurricane protection last yr hope it works when we actually need it
456, Is the weather pattern set-up better now in the SW Caribbean, BOC, and SGOM,than it was in Oct for a potential TC?
Quoting MayFL:


Will you be here and what are your predictions for next year?
Quoting MayFL:


Will you be here and what are your predictions for next year?
Quoting MayFL:


Will you be here and what are your predictions for next year?


As long as life does not throw any curve balls I miss.

My thinking for next year will be govern by how quickly El Nino weakens.

I do not think this will be a multi-year El Nino like 2002-2004 or 1991-1994.

The leading climate models show this El Nino similar to those that peak in the winter and weaken through the spring and early Summer.

The conditions may lag so the season may start late but that all depends.

More than 80% of hurricane seasons following El Nino years are more than active so 2010 stands a good chance of reviving the normal period of high activity we are in.
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion


GULF COAST...
INTERESTINGLY...THE ONE PLACE WHERE THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
GAINING INCREASING SUPPORT AND SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM BECAME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WOULD BE A UNIQUE NOVEMBER EVENT BOTH IN
AREA OF FORMATION AND POTENTIAL TRACK. STAY TUNED.


HPC Day 7 Preliminary Graphic
693. MayFL
Thank you.
Quoting stormsurge39:
456, Is the weather pattern set-up better now in the SW Caribbean, BOC, and SGOM,than it was in Oct for a potential TC?


The pattern over the WCARIB is slightly above the late-October-early-November mean.
Quoting Weather456:


ohok...I see ur point.
I want to emphasize to you as well as a handful of others that the information coming from this blog would not be nearly as good and accurate if it were not for your quality investigation and assesments you knowledgable guys put out here for pre-novice individuals like myself. I sincerely thank you for your dedication you have put into this.
I hope the models are out in left field, about a potential TC in the GOM.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion


GULF COAST...
INTERESTINGLY...THE ONE PLACE WHERE THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
GAINING INCREASING SUPPORT AND SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS SYSTEM BECAME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WOULD BE A UNIQUE NOVEMBER EVENT BOTH IN
AREA OF FORMATION AND POTENTIAL TRACK. STAY TUNED.


HPC Day 7 Preliminary Graphic

Most interesting! I keep forgetting about HPC which is right around our DC Beltway.
Please forgive newbie question; how often and when is this updated?
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Most interesting! I keep forgetting about HPC which is right around our DC Beltway.
Please forgive newbie question; how often and when is this updated?


Issuance Times
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Issuance Times

Ah ha, thanks for doing my homework for me.
I see it's all here. Appreciate it.
Quoting Weather456:


When you (not you literally) sit here and present balanced information and people accuse you of wishcasting and immaturity when they themselves pick and chooses information to suite their needs becomes a problem. I fail to see what we gain from that.


I've seen lots of wishcasters on here, but I never did think you were one of them.

But I don't understand why you are dissing on Ike. I've scene him get excited about the potential of storms blossoming this year. Then when it becomes clear that the storm will flop, he declares it so. Let's face it, outside of Bill, this has been the year of flop.

If you get mad at Ike for declaring a storm a "flop", then don't get mad at Ike. Instead, get mad at the storm. Ike just calls it as he sees it, IMO.
Quoting stormsurge39:
I hope the models are out in left field, about a potential TC in the GOM.


always expect the un-expected
tornado

If you get mad at Ike for declaring a storm a "flop", then don't get mad at Ike. Instead, get mad at the storm. Ike just calls it as he sees it, IMO.

No one is mad at Ike, the incidents I told you this morning were in the past. This has nothing to do with the current situation. A matter of fact it has nothing to do with storms being a flop either.


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Good Evening everyone,
I see the Philippines has a TD that's going to brush the Far NE coast, and possible BOC development. Season ain't over yet.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Evening everyone,
I see the Philippines has a TD that's going to brush the Far NE coast, and possible BOC development. Season ain't over yet.


Morning to you Aus, hope things are well down under :)

Looks like we may have a little action before the season is over up here.
GHOST

of the 2009 Hurricane Season

Laughing on exit.


Quoting Orcasystems:


Morning to you Aus, hope things are well down under :)

Looks like we may have a little action before the season is over up here.

Expecting some severe storms here Tuesday arvo I hope they are not too severe, I will try to take some pics. It's also ment to be 37C(98.6F) here too.
National Situation Update: Monday, November 2, 2009
Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).
National Weather

Northeast
Clouds and showers from southern New Jersey to eastern Virginia will persist most of the day. Coastal areas from Cape Cod to the Mid Atlantic will be breezy.
South
Scattered showers and thunderstorms over central Florida are expected today. Lingering showers remain in North Carolina as a cold front moves away from the coast.
Midwest
Some showers are possible around the Great Lakes. Breezy conditions from the upper Mississippi Valley to Missouri and Kansas.
West
Only Washington may see showers as a front pushes into western Canada.(NOAA’s National Weather Service)
Flooding and Tornados in Louisiana

Several days of heavy rain, high winds and tornados created moderate to major flood levels in Louisiana. Flood warnings continue for some areas near the Sabine River, Red River, Bayou Anacoco, Calcasieu River, Mermentau Rivers and the Red Chute Bayou.
Bossier Parish, Louisiana
Voluntary evacuation advisories remain in effect for neighborhoods surrounding Red Chute Bayou due to ongoing topping of the levee and leaking beneath sandbags. The Red Chute Bayou and Flat Rivers continue to rise beyond original forecast. One shelter is open with 1 occupant overnight. The shelter is providing meals for response personnel and displaced families. There are significant road closures related to high water throughout Bossier and Caddo Parish; 30-40 homes are impacted by flooding in Caddo. Over 100 homes were damaged following tornado activity.
Catahoula Parish, Louisiana
Water from the Ouachita River has been rising and is expected to continue for the next few days. 12,000 agricultural acres are flooded. Some road closures remain due to high water. The town of Jonesville has activated pumps to remove rain water in areas where the river levels reached the flood walls.
Union Parish, Louisiana
Flooding around Lake D’Arbonne is expected to continue through Tuesday. Hydrologists indicate that areas downstream of the Toledo Bend Reservoir should be prepared for major flooding; approximately 30-40 families in the Vernon Parish may need to evacuate. The Sabine River Authority may open the gates another foot in the near future. Already 50-65 homes have flooded; 31 parish and 4 state roads are closed.

State Response
The Governor of Louisiana declared a State of Emergency for twenty parishes: Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Union, LaSalle, Morehouse, Catahoula, Red River, Ouachita, Jefferson Davis, Webster, East Carroll, Lincoln, Franklin, Winn, Madison, Natchitoches, Calcasieu, Beauregard, and Richland.
The LA Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP); the Crisis Action Team has been activated to monitor flash flooding and severe weather across Louisiana.
306 Louisiana National Guard personnel are providing levee support utilizing high water vehicles for evacuation, search and rescue and Aerial Reconnaissance.

Federal Actions
FEMA Region VI Acting Regional Administrator is in communication with the LA GOHSEP Director. A State Liaison and both IA and PA PDA teams are on standby.
The US Army Corps of Engineers is providing technical assistance. (Region VI, Upper and Lower Mississippi River Forecast Centers)
Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)
No activity. (FEMA HQ)
Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic
At 2:00 a.m. EST, a non-tropical gale was located about 375 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. This low appears to have acquired some subtropical characteristics. There is a high chance, greater than 30 percent, of this system becoming a subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere, tropical or subtropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Central Pacific
No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday afternoon.
Western Pacific
No activity threatening United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)
Wildfire Update

National Preparedness Level: 1
National Fire Activity as of Friday, October 30, 2009
Initial attack activity: Light (61 new fires)
New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 0
Uncontained large fires: 1
States affected: AZ (NIFC)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Expecting some severe storms here Tuesday arvo I hope they are not too severe, I will try to take some pics. It's also ment to be 37C(98.6F) here too.


I did a 5 mile march thru Downtown Sydney 2 October 1986, and it was damn hot then to :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


I did a 5 mile march thru Downtown Sydney 2 October 1986, and it was damn hot then to :)

I wont be doing that tomorrow,
Goodnight all.
Quoting winter123:
has an eye now... but such low clouds theres no way it would ever be named. Unless this is the diurnal min causing this, I'm going to pronounce this storm dead... was probably part warm core for a few hours but it's not worthy of a name unless it magically bombs soon.


(guess i'm the only one staying up till the 4am advisory... lol... have too, roommate plays music till at least then)


NO ONE predicted the shear increase overnight? Cloudtops were lowering but this thing had an eye when i went to bed. What happened?
Oh, i call no chance on gulf blob, its 2009 remember?? The shear's like OOOH new blob to destroy. Shear will be 50kt by tomorrow morning. I'm out till thursday night. Have fun wasting your time all.