WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Typhoon Ketsana hits Vietnam; death toll in Philippines swells to 246

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:37 PM GMT on September 29, 2009

Typhoon Ketsana slammed into Vietnam this morning as a Category 2 typhoon with 105 mph winds. Ketsana brought sustained winds of 55 mph, gusting to 71 mph to Da Nang Vietnam. Heavy rainfall amounts of 7.2" and 9.1" were observed at Da Nang, and Hue, respectively, over the past two days. Floods and landslides in Vietnam from Ketsana's heavy rains have already claimed at least 22 lives.


Figure 1. Cars being swept away by Ketsana's flood waters in Manila's Park 9 Alley, where the Barangay Hall of Loyola Heights is located. Image credit: Manuel Quezon III.

The death toll in the Philippines from Ketsana continues to rise, with 284 dead or missing. The storm flooded the homes of 1.9 million people, leaving 350,000 people homeless. Ketsana brought 16.7 inches of rain in a twelve-hour period to Manila on Saturday, which was the heaviest 1-day rainfall ever recorded in the city. Ketsana is the third deadliest deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the globe so far this year. The deadliest was Typhoon Morakot, which left 654 people dead or missing on Taiwan, when it hit the island as a Category 2 typhoon on August 7. The second deadliest was Cyclone Aila, which made landfall near the India/Bangladesh border on May 25 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Aila killed at least 339 people, 149 in India and 190 in Bangladesh.

The Philippines have three more tropical cyclones to their east to keep an eye on. So far, none of these storms appear to pose a major threat. Tropical Storm Parma is expected to curve to the northwest and miss the islands, Tropical Depression 18 is expected to dissipate, and newly-formed Tropical Depression 20 will probably pass to the north of the islands.


Figure 2. Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ketsana as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

How to help Ketsana victims
Help the UN World Food Programme by making a donation. This program identifies families in specific need of aid. Just $18 provides a family with rice for two weeks. This is the most critical and immediate way you can make an impact.

Donate to the International Red Cross and help them continue to put relief workers on the ground in the Philippines.

Donate via Catholic Relief Services online of the Philippines or call 1-877-HELP-CRS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
None of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days. Wind shear is predicted to be high in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean this week, limiting the potential for anything to affect land.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks, vortmax
I'm rooting for a +PDO/-NAO winter!
Quoting BenBIogger:
I'm rooting for a +PDO/-NAO winter!


positive NAO forecasted this winter
'It's just flattened': Samoans reel after tsunami impact

Posted 19 minutes ago


Residents of Samoa and American Samoa are struggling to come to terms with the scale of the damage caused by a tsunami which devastated the region, killing dozens of people and sweeping entire villages into the ocean.

Australian resident Lynne Coles says she has been unable to get any information about family members on Samoa's south coast.

She says two of her cousins were killed in a car crash, caused by the initial earthquake tremor.

"They were driving on the road. As the earthquake erupted the road was cut in half ... and the people were seen being thrown off the car as the earthquake erupted," she said.

Olga Keil, a journalist working in Samoa, described the damage.

"We've got reports from the south-eastern side of the main island, where houses have been completely flattened, vehicles have been swept out to sea, boulders have fallen off the mountain along the coastal areas," she said.

"But mainly a lot of houses in the villages on the coastal areas have been flattened by the waves."

Vincent Ilui from the village of Leone in American Samoa spoke to Adam Spencer on local radio in Sydney.

Mr Ilui says he has heard six people from his village died after the tsunami struck the area.

"The wave just broke at shore line and just buried any structure that was built along the shore line," he said.

"The wave went through it, even ended up going through churches, traditional homes and even the modern homes, so it's a big mess at the moment because as it receded it collected everything in its way, in its path."

New Zealand tourist Graeme Ansell, who is holidaying on the Samoan island of Upolu, has issued a plea for help.


'We just need help'

"We've all clambered hill and some of our party, one of them has got a broken leg. Our party's OK but we just need help," he said.

"There will be people in a great lot of need round here. It's flattened, it's just flattened. It was very quick and it's flattened."

Australian Nick Rees told ABC News Breakfast his parents had called him to tell him the tsunami had hit the southern side of the main Samoan island, completely destroying their hotel.

"They've lost everything they have ... [but] they're alive and they're OK, my dad has broken some ribs," he said, adding that some people were missing from the hotel.

Mr Rees said he thought the guests had very little warning.

"There were people from their hotel missing... I'm assuming if dad's injured and there are people missing it was pretty quick," he said.

The general manager of Southseas Broadcasting, Joey Cummings, said cars were swept out to sea and the water reached the second floor of the Pago Plaza building in the American Samoa capital Pago Pago.

Pago Pago airport supervisor Dave Fiumaono was at home when the earthquake struck.

Mr Fiumaono says the airport runways are flooded with water.

And he says that before the tsunami hit, he could see the coral sticking out of the ocean.

"It was pretty strong shaking and rattling at the house and then right after the earthquake I can see all the coral on the ocean side showing," he said.

"There were some rocks and there's corals that usually we don't see but after the earthquake it seems that all the water went outwards and we can see the coral on the ocean side."


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/09/30/2700395.htm?section=justin


This looks bad for the far east
Quoting StormW:


Something Brewing Chief?


Quoting BahaHurican:
I was about to say that between about 1700 and 1920 things seemed a bit more active earthquake-wise in our area. I remember reading about the Port Royal earthquake in primary school. But I also seem to recall most of the earthquake effects being relatively local....
What is primary school?
Also 18W is getting squeezed out lol


Poor 18W, it developed 1st out of the 3 but is being squeezed by what was 19W and 20W (both named now)

Kinda like the oldest kid who is shorter than his 2 younger siblings lol
Quoting Skyepony:
Parma wave forecast.

This isn't good for Taiwan after what happened in August when Typhoon Morakot hit.
Quoting hydrus:
What is primary school?


primary school is the Caribbean/British equivalent of school for children typically between ages 5-12.
Quoting hydrus:
What is primary school?


Primary school is elementary school. Secondary is high school.
LOL there are three posts which talks about Parma forming an eye. xD
Quoting Weather456:


positive NAO forecasted this winter


Darn!
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Something Brewing Chief?




i think thats the remnants of Fred
Does not look good for Guam

This is an intensifying signature - reminds me of pre-Rita


Looks like Saipan could be in for a direct hit.
Quoting timtrice:


I'm going to continue this "debate" (right?) because I think you're not seeing what I'm seeing.

This is the textual data for the hour-period just before the highest recorded ob:

09/29/2009 07:36:00 SST 1.01 1.26 0.25 4 093 13 1013.8 78.6 88.0 -999.9
09/29/2009 07:42:00 SST 0.96 -99.99 -99.99 10 083 14 1013.8 78.8 88.0 -999.9
09/29/2009 07:48:00 SST 0.91 5.83 4.92 9 069 15 1013.9 78.1 88.0 -999.9
09/29/2009 07:54:00 SST 0.86 -1.07 -1.93 9 074 18 1014.0 78.8 88.0 -999.9
09/29/2009 08:00:00 SST 0.81 0.61 -0.20 10 083 14 1014.0 79.2 88.0 -999.9
09/29/2009 08:06:00 SST 0.77 4.40 3.63 9 075 16 1014.0 79.2 88.0 -999.9
09/29/2009 08:12:00 SST 0.72 -99.99 -99.99 10 080 19 1014.1 79.5 88.0 -999.9
09/29/2009 08:18:00 SST 0.68 2.14 1.46 11 081 16 1014.1 79.5 -99.9 -999.9
09/29/2009 08:24:00 SST 0.64 0.01 -0.63 10 083 16 1014.2 79.5 88.2 -999.9
09/29/2009 08:30:00 SST 0.60 1.23 0.63 14 075 18 1014.2 79.3 88.2 -999.9


You're saying that during a 24-minute period it started at 2 feet, rose to 6 feet on the next 6-minute ob, and then close to 6 feet on the third 6-minute ob. But, this just isn't true.

Discount the invalid wave ob at 7:42.

At 7:36 the water heights were only 1 1/2 feet above MLLW. Somewhere over the next 12 minutes the water level rose nearly 6 feet. On the next 6-minute ob the water level dropped to -1 foot. This was followed by another ob just under 1 foot above MLLW and then the next ob was 4 1/2 feet above MLLW.

This does not go with your argument that the water level remained near 6-feet for a 24-minute period.

My original comment was to show the previous commenter that you could see there was definately wave action out of the ordinary in that area where the observation was taken. Those observations were mentioned by the Pacific Tsunami center as, in part, a basis for their tsunami warning. This wasn't a hurricane-like storm surge that passed through this area. This was a minor tsunami that was probably only 20 feet at best that, as we know now, has since dissipated.

Now, I'll conclude that with this statement: I'm not an eartquake expert. I found the topic interesting and enjoyed following the comments and reading the links. Perhaps I'll develop that further.

But, you can't argue with what the observations were coming from that region.


Well, the text data is far more useful, thanks for posting it (I should have dug a little deeper on the site, myself).

The intermittent missing data flag gives pause...but, I have to agree. I see in the data that the water level drops 2 feet during one 6 minute time period, then over the next 6 minutes rises up to 3.5 feet. It does appear cyclical.
And I wonder what elevation was at the first missing data flag time. Who knows, could have been 8 feet? And I have to wonder about this sensor. Must be power loss at 13:30; all of the records went to missing data flags.

Still it would not at all resemble what most of us know as a wave, either in deep water or at the coast. (which is what started all of this).

As to what this data means, I am not sure. I cannot find much about the observation site. But if it really is near Pago Pago it is most likely in the bay and I have to say it is not really relevant to the deep ocean wave discussion. So, what can I say about these obs? Well, whatever wave action measured in a bay that has a tsunami in source is likely the result of wave refraction and reflection from the shores of the bay.

maps here: http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=pago+pago&sll=30.480695,-90.110106&sspn =0.135215,0.220757&ie=UTF8&ll=-14.275363,-170.70694&spn=0.152054,0.220757&z=12
523. JRRP

Quoting Weather456:


i think thats the remnants of Fred

It's the remnants of Pab-Low - 23rd time around
Quoting hydrus:
What is primary school?
Elementary, my dear Watson... LOL

Grades 1 - 6.
Quoting Weather456:


could it be the beginnings of the Rapture.


LOL - it isn't 2012 yet - silly.

poor Guam
Quoting Weather456:
I've read that the 2004 tsunami was so large it jolted the entire globe and altered rotation. This is only 1 of the 3 features that are known to affect the earth's internal angular moment - the other 2 being El Nino and the MJO.


I've always for some reason suspected that the 2004 earthquake because it altered its rotation just slightly, contributed to the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season significantly. I really have nothing to back that up but it would make sense.
Quoting StormW:
456,
Did you get the QBO information I sent you?


Just checked it...thanks.

Question: this was proposed by someone - along with El Nino et al, could the easterly phase of the QBO also a contributor to the inactive season?
Yeah with directions like these to get to this obs site, I don't think it is representative of open ocean deep water.

"To reach the tidal bench marks, from Pago Pago Airport proceed 0.3 km (0.2 mi) from the parking lot and turn right onto the Airport Road (look for the U.S. Army Reserve Building at intersection) and proceed 2.1 km (1.3 mi) on Airport Road to the T intersection where the Airport and Main Roads intersect, turn right onto the Main Road and proceed 10.6 km (6.6 mi), take a right at the first intersection past the Fagatogo Shopping complex which will be on your right. Proceed one block and take a left onto the waterfront street, then proceed west for 1/2 block and on your right will be the two storied, constructed of gray stone with a cinder block wall, Department of Marine & Wildlife Resource (DMWR) building, located across the street and north of the public outdoor market and bus stop. The bench marks were located in the vicinity all along the harbor.
The Tide Gauge is located in a storage closet (with outside entrance) in the NE corner of the DMWR buillding on the first level. "

From: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=1770000%20Pago%20Pago,%20%20&type=Bench%20Mark %20Data%20Sheets
Quoting Magicchaos:
Looks like Saipan could be in for a direct hit.
Twas thinking the same thing....Second storm of the season for that area. I'm thinking yet another effect of El Nino....
That's a storm train in the WPac if I ever saw one.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Elementary, my dear Watson... LOL

Grades 1 - 6.
Thank you for the answer.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Elementary, my dear Watson... LOL

Grades 1 - 6.
'

YES.
Quoting Weather456:


i think thats the remnants of Fred


Fred is long gone... It was over by Florida a week ago...
I've been to Parma, Italy. It is the region where Parmesan cheese originates. I always found the name "Parma" to be slightly amusing because I always associate it with the city.
Elsewhere is the tropics...

92P


90B

Tsunami toll may reach 100 in Western Samoa: officials


SYDNEY (Reuters) - A tsunami that hit Western Samoa may have killed up to 100 people, with many more injured, Samoa's disaster management office said on Wednesday.

Assistant Chief Executive Ausegalia Mulipola said teams were still searching for victims of the tsunami, with reports some villages in the country's southeast had been destroyed.

A series of tsunamis smashed into the Pacific island nations of American and Western Samoa after a huge undersea quake off American Samoa. The death toll in American Samoa was officially 14, but could rise, said officials.

The quake prompted a Pacific-wide tsunami warning, which was later canceled.

Link
Quoting Weather456:
I've read that the 2004 tsunami was so large it jolted the entire globe and altered rotation. This is only 1 of the 3 features that are known to affect the earth's internal angular moment - the other 2 being El Nino and the MJO.


Was it maybe the earthquake? I can't see a wave being able to alter the rotation of the earth, but I can see an earthquake maybe doing it.
543. JRRP
what is QBO?
Quoting Weather456:
Does not look good for Guam

And it might look even worse if that storm intensifies rapidly...
Good night all.
Quoting JRRP:
what is QBO?
Equatorial Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Google it.
Quoting hurristat:
I've been to Parma, Italy. It is the region where Parmesan cheese originates. I always found the name "Parma" to be slightly amusing because I always associate it with the city.


"Moon over Parma, bring my love to me tonight.

Guide her to Cleveland, underneath your silvery light.

We’re going bowlin’ so don’t loose her in Solon. Moon over Parma, tonight!"

548. JRRP
Quoting hydrus:
Equatorial Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Google it.

thanks
Parma's eye is getting bigger.
Resorts destroyed by Samoan tsunami


The owner of a resort in Samoa says she and her husband were nearly washed away by the tsunami that hit on Wednesday morning.

Wendy Booth says her Sea Breeze resort has been destroyed by the tsunami, which followed a huge undersea earthquake.

"The second wave hit and came up through the floor, pushed out the back door and threw us outside," she told Fairfax Radio Network.

"We managed to hang on to a handrail. My husband and I just hung on to each other and the handrail and then that one (wave) went but the suckout was tremendous," she said.

"The force of the wave took furniture through the roof. The furniture was pushed with the ferocity of the wave through the ceiling."

Another resort was also destroyed, resident Tony Manson said.

"It's just written off," he told Fairfax Radio Network.

"The lagoon is awash with debris. I don't know how many are dead, I know people are down there retrieving bodies at the moment."


Link
Quoting mikatnight:


"Moon over Parma, bring my love to me tonight.

Guide her to Cleveland, underneath your silvery light.

We%u2019re going bowlin%u2019 so don%u2019t loose her in Solon. Moon over Parma, tonight!"

That was so moving, My girl read it and immediately poured wine and punched on the stereo....
Ketsana is dead, but not gone. Its remnants are still causing a lot of rain through out south Asia.
Quoting mikatnight:


"Moon over Parma, bring my love to me tonight.

Guide her to Cleveland, underneath your silvery light.

We’re going bowlin’ so don’t loose her in Solon. Moon over Parma, tonight!"



I think they mean Parma, Ohio, there. LOL
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
==========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Overland Laos

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Ketsana (994 hPa) located at 15.5N 106.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as almost stationary

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: "Overland"

Gale-Force Winds
===============
350 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
300 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.8N 105.2E - Tropical Depression

System #2
------------

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (1800z 29SEPT)
==========================================

At 3:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 12.0N 147.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west-northwest at 15 knots

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
===============================================
Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (18W)

System #3
-----------

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
==========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near The Caroline Islands

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Parma (990 hPa) located at 9.1N 136.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest at 12 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale-Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 11.8N 133.3E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 14.5N 130.4E - 70 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.1N 127.7E - 75 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
Is Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (19W)

System #4
----------

Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
==========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Near Marshalls Island

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Storm Melor (996 hPa) located at 11.5N 156.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west-northwest at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
===============
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 12.4N 154.3E - 50 kts (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 13.2N 153.0E - 65 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 14.3N 150.8E - 70 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning
==========================
Is Now Subjected To A Tropical Cyclone Warning (20W)
Quoting hurristat:


I think they mean Parma, Ohio, there. LOL


Shhhhh...Hydrus might get lucky and have a perfect score (at bowling...what were you thinking...)
this says we now have Typhoon PARMA


Link
Quoting Weather456:


i think thats the remnants of Fred


LOL! Fred That one was a good one 456.
Quoting mikatnight:


Shhhhh...Hydrus might get lucky and have a perfect score (at bowling...what were you thinking...)
Thank you...
In case you missed this interesting link on unusual clouds.


indeed Taz
Ameister12,

India Meteorological Department
17:30 PM IST September 29 2009
=================================

The well marked low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood persists.
Parma seems to be rapidly intensifying. Not good...

And the JMA and JTWC are going to get their hands full.
Quoting weatherbro:


...Actually isn't the Quiantain River in northeast China reported to have the tallest Tidal Bore's?


I read the '26 Great Miami Hurricane created a tidal bore up the Miami River. Is that possible?
UPDATE 6-Samoa tsunami toll may exceed 100, hundreds injuredTue Sep 29, 2009 9:53pm EDT


* 8.0 undersea quake triggers Pacific tsunami alert

* Reports people swept out to sea

* Villages flattened, search for bodies in sand (Updates with latest death toll, quotes, changes dateline)

By Michael Perry

SYDNEY, Sept 30 (Reuters) - A series of tsunamis smashed into the Pacific island nations of American and Western Samoa killing possibly more than 100 people, destroying villages and injuring hundreds, officials said on Wednesday.

A Pacific-wide tsunami warning was issued after a huge 8.0 magnitude undersea quake off American Samoa, with reports of a small tsunami reaching New Zealand and rising sea levels in several South Pacific island nations.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center cancelled its warning, but Japan's Meteorological Agency issued a local tsunami warning for the country's eastern coast, warning of a possible tsunami of 50 cm (2 feet).

The Indian Ocean tsunami on Dec. 26, 2004 killed about 230,000 people across 11 countries.

Shortly after local radio tsunami warnings were issued in American and Western Samoa, waves started crashing into the capital of American Samoa, Pago Pago, and villages and resorts on the southern coasts of the tiny island nations, witnesses said.

"It's believed as of now, there could be a number close to 100 deaths," said Ausegalia Mulipola, assistant chief executive of Western Samoa's disaster management office.

"They are still continuing the searches for any missing bodies in the area," Mulipola told Reuters, adding the southern side of the country's main island Upolu was the worst hit.

"There have been reports of villages, where most of the houses have been run over by the sea," he said.

"Some areas have been flattened and the tsunami had brought a lot of sand onshore, so there have been reports the sand has covered some of the bodies. So we need specialised machines to search for bodies that are burried under the sand."

In American Samoa, a U.S. territory, the death toll was officially 14, but could rise, said officials.

FIVE TSUNAMI WAVES

A series of five waves hit Pago Pago, swamping the harbourside business centre and temporarily closing the airport. Continued...Link
PAGASA will soon put up cyclone watches for Parma as well
Ketsana might survive the trip overland and redevelop in the BOB.
FM 104....Samoa:

Link
572. xcool



here in slidell .

Storm W thanks for your analysis, I been watching this area for the last couple of days and the 850vortex has been increasing steady over the last 24hrs that antyciclonic ahead of this disturbance will gave this area the chance to reach at least an invest status in 12-24 hrs. IMO

850 5 days loop:

Link

Evening everyone.
The CMC does funny things to Ketsana (Ondoy)
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0000z 30SEPT)
==========================================

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 13.0N 146.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots and is reported as moving west-northwest at 15 knots

---
TC 18W
Quoting mikatnight:


I read the '26 Great Miami Hurricane created a tidal bore up the Miami River. Is that possible?
You bet.
Hi all,

Looks like there's some 'good ole' GOM rain headed toward Fla.
Loop
Tho it doesn't look like it on the weather report...hmmm.
Point Forecast: New Smyrna Beach FL
29.02°N 80.93°W (Elev. 3 ft)
Last Update: 9:59 pm EDT Sep 29, 2009
Forecast Valid: 11pm EDT Sep 29, 2009-6pm EDT Oct 6, 2009
Overnight Mostly Clear Lo 64 °F
Wednesday Sunny Hi 81 °F Wednesday Night Mostly Clear Lo 59 °F
Thursday Sunny Hi 82 °F
Thursday Night Mostly Clear Lo 66 °F
Friday Mostly Sunny Hi 87 °F
Friday Night Partly Cloudy Lo 72 °F
Saturday Chance Tstms Hi 85 °F
I don't get it.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V STRUCTURE IS SEEN IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 39W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 39W-48W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
xcool hey
Anyway, what do I know. Nuthin'.
See y'all tomorrow.
Many prayers for the people on Samoa tonight.
Good evening
I have not been on for a while due to quiet conditions. One area worth watching IMO is the wave near 45W which is approaching this anticyclone dead ahead

You never know what can spin up even in a year with reduced activity. Anything forming near 50W would likely head due W with high pressure dominating to the N in the CATL right now.
584. xcool
hey
WOW, what a day! First Typhoon Ketsana hits Vietnam, with 34 reported dead. There is now Typhoon Parma, which appears destined to become a CAT 3 Typhoon, TS Melor and TD in the W PAC. And an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Bengal, aka 90B.

While the Atlantic & E PAC are quiet, oops, 1 Invest in the E PAC, the other side of the world is getting hammered.

Then the 8.0 MW earthquake and several Tsunami waves hitting American Samoa and the neighboring Samoa. Very sad day with up to 100 feared dead.

Philippines still trying to clean up after TS Katsana flooded Manila and surrounding cities. My prayers to all the families suffering through these disasters.
586. jipmg
2 more cold fronts after the one that just came through central FL, coming during the upcoming week
US scrambles response to Pacific tsunami
(AFP) – 3 hours ago

WASHINGTON — The United States scrambled to respond to a tsunami that left at least 28 people dead in the Samoa islands, deploying two disaster relief teams to American Samoa.

Craig Fugate, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said the relief agency was sending an incident management assistance team and a planning and response team team "to provide support and on the ground assessment" in conjunction with the US Coast Guard.

The deadly tsunami, triggered by a massive 8.0-magnitude earthquake, wiped out villages when it hit remote island groups in the Pacific Ocean.

Initial reports said at least 14 people had been killed on the American territory and at least another 14 on independent Samoa, which is part of the same island chain.

"It was an earthquake, which caused a tidal wave 15 feet (4.5 meters) in height," said Eni Faleomavaega, American Samoa's delegate to the US Congress.

"Some of the areas there are only a few feet above sea level, so you can imagine the devastation," Faleomavaega told AFP by telephone.

He said he had been in touch with local officials with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as well as FEMA, assessing the area's disaster relief needs.

"It caused severe damage to property, there are cars floating everywhere," Faleomavaega said, confirming that early reports of thousands left homeless and some 20 dead were "about right."

"We're hoping to take food and supplies and things, and they're making the necessary arrangements also to see what needs there are in Samoa, the independent state of Samoa," he said.

"This is a really sad time for the Samoan people," he said. "For those who are dead, we can only express our sympathies."

"I'm trying to catch the first flight out" to get home, but having little success, said Faleomavaega.

"So far, I'm just trying," he said.

Fugate said the agency had activated its National Response Coordination Center "in order to support American Samoa as they respond to the earthquake and the resulting tsunami."

In a statement, Fugate said FEMA has pre-positioned provisions in Hawaii and "is also preparing to send supplies as needed."

"We remain in contact with the leadership of American Samoa and our federal partners and will continue to monitor the situation to ensure that there are no unmet needs in the territory on in other potentially impacted regions," the statement said.

A spokesman for the Red Cross in Washington told AFP that the relief organization was on standby and trying to determine what help they could offer.

"We are working to determine what we have (but) we have not been asked for anything," said Jonathan Aiken. "At the moment we are looking at it as a local issue."

The US National Park Service, which has operations and staff in American Samoa, said its headquarters in Pago Pago, the capital of the main island of Tutuila, appeared to have been wiped out.

"Park staff, when they are able to make cell phone calls, are calling in to our offices," said spokeswoman Holly Bundock, relaying information from national park superintendent in Pago Pago Mike Reynolds.

"They said five tsunami waves have hit the park visitor center in Pago Pago. It would appear park offices and the visitor center there have been destroyed.

"Our greatest concern is for our staff. It would seem all are okay. One of the waves was about 30 feet high," she added.

The US Coast Guard said they had a marine safety detachment based in Pago Pago, but no boats or aircraft.

"We haven't been called on for any search and rescue response," said a spokesman, adding that the situation was being handled by FEMA.

The Hawaii-based US Pacific Command said it had not been asked for assistance at this time.


http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gaUk9vu5kuBmN6ssmdsVsBvrsc1A
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening
I have not been on for a while due to quiet conditions. One area worth watching IMO is the wave near 45W which is approaching this anticyclone dead ahead

You never know what can spin up even in a year with reduced activity. Anything forming near 50W would likely head due W with high pressure dominating to the N in the CATL right now.

Not even a yellow flag on that... CATLoop
Really, goodnight!
If anyone sees a way for Portlight to help in this situation, I'm all over it...and...anyone who can tell me how FEMA is actually gonna help in this situation, I'll send you $50...


STATEMENT FROM FEMA ADMINISTRATOR CRAIG FUGATE



“The Federal Emergency Management Agency has activated its National Response Coordination Center, as well as our Regional Response Coordination Center in Region IX, in order to support American Samoa as they respond to the earthquake and resulting tsunami in the Pacific Ocean. Working closely with the US Coast Guard, FEMA is deploying an Incident Management Assistance Team (IMAT) as well as a Planning and Response Team (PRT) to American Samoa to provide support and on the ground assessment. FEMA, who has provisions pre-positioned in a distribution center in Hawaii, is also preparing to send supplies as needed. We remain in contact with the leadership of American Samoa and our federal partners and will continue to monitor the situation to ensure that there are no unmet needs in the territory or in other potentially impacted regions. As we take the steps necessary to address the situation, our thoughts and prayers are with the people in the affected communities that have been impacted by this event.”





FEMA’s mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capability to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.



# # #





Marcie Roth
Senior Advisor, Disability Issues
Department of Homeland Security/ FEMA

202.212.1537 (office)

202.285.9231 (cell)

marcie.roth@dhs.gov



“FEMA’s mission is to support our citizens and first responders to ensure that as a nation we work together to build, sustain, and improve our capacity to prepare for, protect against, respond to, recover from, and mitigate all hazards.”
590. xcool






impact weather.

66.9°F here in slidell la

Quoting Chicklit:

Not even a yellow flag on that... CATLoop
Really, goodnight!


Too soon for yellow. Maybe in 18 hours or thereabouts
Good night all
Quoting somemalayguy117:
Parma seems to be rapidly intensifying. Not good...

And the JMA and JTWC are going to get their hands full.


Close, the JMA and the JTWC have their HANDS FULL!
594. JLPR
night kman :)
595. JLPR
maybe it will get a yellow circle once it gets closer to the islands

right now it has a broad circulation, it needs a better LLC to be considered a candidate

Quoting somemalayguy117:
Ketsana might survive the trip overland and redevelop in the BOB.


Yeah, the JTWC said TS Ketsana would dissipate in 12 hrs. That was 15 hrs ago. Granted, by now she's a TD, but if she completes the journey into the BOB, what will they call her? The El Nino fiasco of 2009, anything is possible!
597. xcool



Forecast Precip from coolwx.com
Quoting Bordonaro:


Yeah, the JTWC said TS Ketsana would dissipate in 12 hrs. That was 15 hrs ago. Granted, by now she's a TD, but if she completes the journey into the BOB, what will they call her? The El Nino fiasco of 2009, anything is possible!


Kensana would still be Kensana. Super Typhoon Durian actually did a similar type thing in 2006.



The same occurred with Typhoon Gay in 1989.



Crossing from the W. Pac to the Indian basins is rare, but it is by no means unprecedented.

it RAINED here tonight...we all stood outside like idiots...
Well, no news yet out of Da Nang from my neighbors family. As expected,power appears to be out all over the area according to news reports. Flooding is major. At this point it is just wait and if nothing soon check with relief agencies. Actual news has been rather sparse. Early still would be my guess.

From Reuters:
The biggest floods in decades threatened Vietnam's central provinces on Wednesday following a powerful typhoon that swept into the country after wreaking havoc in the Philippines.

The government said 38 people had died and 10 were missing in floods and landslides in eight coastal and central highland provinces. River waters in Quang Nam (just below Da Nang) province could reach a level last seen in 1964 by Wednesday evening, weather reports said.

"From the air, one can see many areas around Danang being isolated by floods," a Reuters witness said. "Sea waves pounded the road along Danang's beach and threw several ships onshore."
601. xcool



American Samoa Tsunami

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Check out the comments section for the Comedy
Quoting PcolaDan:
Well, no news yet out of Da Nang from my neighbors family. As expected,power appears to be out all over the area according to news reports. Flooding is major. At this point it is just wait and if nothing soon check with relief agencies. Actual news has been rather sparse. Early still would be my guess.

From Reuters:
The biggest floods in decades threatened Vietnam's central provinces on Wednesday following a powerful typhoon that swept into the country after wreaking havoc in the Philippines.

The government said 38 people had died and 10 were missing in floods and landslides in eight coastal and central highland provinces. River waters in Quang Nam (just below Da Nang) province could reach a level last seen in 1964 by Wednesday evening, weather reports said.

"From the air, one can see many areas around Danang being isolated by floods," a Reuters witness said. "Sea waves pounded the road along Danang's beach and threw several ships onshore."


Thanks for the update. Though not good, I, plus others (who asked earlier on the blog if you had heard anything) were concerned about your friend's family and all affected. Again, prayers go out.
604. JRRP
605. 7544
Quoting JRRP:


maybe jrrp and chicklet could be as the 18z gfs show something there making it all the way to fla. ? hard to tell from this run lol

Link
606. JLPR
since we are at blackout
Eumetsat is the best we got :|
does anyone have any weather related ideas as to why in spring hill fl after haveing seen 0 big bumble bees would we have found 15 of them hanging out around the front porch light tonight? Is it possible they are acting different because of the cold front moving across the states?
30/0230 UTC 9.5N 136.1E T4.5/4.5 PARMA -- West Pacific


this can not be good



T # with PARMA jump from 3.5 too 4.5
press~ I'll tell you how FEMA will help~ Craig Fugate is running it now. I confess to being a distant relative of his, don't know him personally. But ask any Floridian, he's been our disaster coordinator for the state for years. The calm informing voice before that gets things up & running after. In my opinion we for the 1st time have someone running FEMA that is qualified to attempt to take the reins of that beast..
Quoting Skyepony:
press~ I'll tell you how FEMA will help~ Craig Fugate is running it now. I confess to being a distant relative of his, don't know him personally. But ask any Floridian, he's been our disaster coordinator for the state for years. The calm informing voice before that gets things up & running after. In my opinion we for the 1st time have someone running FEMA that is qualified to attempt to take the reins of that beast..


Fugate has a GREAT reputation...I just fear that FEMA disfunction is greater than anyone can resolve...hope to God you're right...
Press~ I hope so too. There is really no one better qualified to give it a go. FEMA always seemed to run smoother in FL. There was lessons learned but at least when they screwed up they handed out a little too much instead of totally dropping the ball. Faye & FEMA around here ran like a well rehearsed play for the most part, even with the multiple landfalls & time spent meandering the state. They set up where people from badly flooded areas could walk to the FEMA place even.
612. JLPR
little batch of decent winds with the TW at 50-45W

613. xcool



614. JLPR
Quoting Orcasystems:

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


Check out the comments section for the Comedy


You should get banned for this.
THREE systems in a row in the WPAC? This has to be some kind of record. Like least total distance between three storms.


Link
Quoting TampaSpin:


You should get banned for this.


How come TS, whats the problem?

Edited because of #619
TS, if you have a problem, WUmail Admin or myself, but keep it out of the main blog.

I'm out for the night.. have fun
and this about when all the bickering starts am going too say good night

Quoting winter123:
THREE systems in a row in the WPAC? This has to be some kind of record. Like least total distance between three storms.


Link



am sure there been 3 storms out there be for in the W Pac all so 18W will most likey not going to make it so will olny have to storms out there too track
and now the best night sleep that i have not had in 4 moths or so i been geting up at 5am for 4 moths


heh heh i dont have too any more in tell next summer


night all
622. JLPR


intense convection gone
im off to bed
goodnight :0)
World responds to Pacific disaster


Foreign governments are rushing to send aid to the islands of Samoa after an earthquake and a series of tsunamis struck the region early this morning.

The United States, New Zealand and Australia have all offered assistance to the Pacific region, as the death toll rises.

Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has confirmed one Australian has been killed and six are missing.

Authorities believe the death toll could reach up to 100 and there are concerns that as the picture of the disaster becomes clearer, the situation may look much worse than expected.

US President Barack Obama says "a major disaster exists" in American Samoa, where at least 24 people have been confirmed dead.

"The president tonight declared a major disaster exists in the territory of American Samoa and ordered federal aid to supplement territory and local recovery efforts in the area struck by an earthquake, tsunami, and flooding," a statement from the White House said.

The United States is preparing to dispatch emergency workers and relief supplies to the region.

Eni Faleomavaega is the congressman for American Samoa. He has been in Washington today, but he is heading home.

"Well I'm quite sure that all our businesses and areas were in the downtown areas had been, it's only two to three feet above sea level," he said.

"When you have a 15-foot tidal wave you can just imagine what happens to all the businesses in the areas that were in the downtown area were severely impaired because of the, as a result of the tidal wave.

"We are having the full force of the Federal Emergency Management Organisation out of the US Government that will be coming down to help us."


'Lessons learned'

Mr Faleomavaega says the US has learned lessons from Hurricane Katrina in responding to disasters.

"Well let me just say that we've learned our lesson from Katrina and I'm quite sure we're already making preparations right now to send aircrafts to provide the necessary supplies - food, equipment, whatever's needed," he said.

"So I'd say in a matter of a day or two we'll be down there and [I'm] trying to find a way myself down there as soon as possible."

Mr Faleomavaega says he has been unable to get in contact with some family members in the disaster-struck region.

Acting New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English says some of his country's air force planes are already on the way to the islands in the Pacific.

"New Zealand's assistance is underway and an Orion is already on the way to Samoa and will get there in the next two or three hours," he said.

"It will be taking part in searching for people who have been washed out to sea.

"This is a situation that is unfolding, and we do have some real concern that over the next 12 hours the picture could look worse - rather than better."

Australia is gearing up to provide medical supplies and personnel to Samoa.

Samoa's National Disaster Committee made the request after meeting to assess the initial damage.

The Parliamentary Secretary for International Assistance, Bob McMullan, says there is a coordinated effort with New Zealand to help the island nation.

"The hospitals are quite good there as you'd know, but obviously they are overwhelmed by the volume and they have had to send a lot of people, decentralise people out to the damage," he said.

"So we need people to assist in the hospital, those sort of things both physical equipment and if we can get it personnel."

Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith says Australia will send whatever assistance is needed.

"We're focusing our efforts on Samoa; we've determined already that we'll send a task force of Australian officials to give additional assistance to our high commission is Apia, the capital," he said.

"That'll be made up of both DFAT (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade) and Defence officials and so we're effectively sending reinforcements just to make sure we've got as many Australian officials on the ground as is required.

"We've also indicated to the Samoan Government that any assistance that they need in the face of this tragedy then Australia is ready, willing and able to provide assistance that, as you'd expect, the Samoan Government is not yet in a position to make a judgement about what additional assistance it may require, given that it's dealing with the immediacy of the problem."


http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/09/30/2700899.htm?section=justin
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TYPHOON PARMA (T0917)
15:00 PM JST September 30 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon Near The Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Parma (970 hPa) located at 9.9N 135.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 15 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm-Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.0N 131.6E - 80 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 15.6N 128.8E - 85 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.8N 127.0E - 85 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
625. IKE
All clear in the Atlantic on the 00Z ECMWF through October 10th.
Good Morning everyone!
Morning all.
Quoting TampaSpin:


You should get banned for this.
I agree wholeheartedly.... almost injured myself yesterday trying to read through the comments section on that blog.....
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TYPHOON PARMA (T0917)
15:00 PM JST September 30 2009
================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon Near The Caroline Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Parma (970 hPa) located at 9.9N 135.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west-northwest at 15 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm-Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
==================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 13.0N 131.6E - 80 kts (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 15.6N 128.8E - 85 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 17.8N 127.0E - 85 kts (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
Not good, either current or forecast. Is JMA still showing Guam in the headlights?

Also, didn't I read something earlier about Ketsana crossing into the BoB and reforming? That would not be good....
Morning Ike. That wave is still looking respectable, though; it's the first one this month which actually seems to look half-way decent around the clock. Definitely it should bring some rain to the Antilles, hey?
Good Morning,


Blog Update

Behind the Samoa Tsunami

From the Christian Science Monitor:

Hit by typhoon, Vietnam rivers swell to historic levels
Typhoon Ketsana, which devastated the Philippines, killed 38 people and displaced 375,000 in Vietnam before hitting Cambodia en route to Thailand and Laos.

By David Montero | Correspondent 09.30.09

The typhoon that ravaged the Philippines on Saturday is now ripping through central Vietnam and Cambodia, where it has killed dozens, left hundreds of thousands homeless, and unleashed torrential rains that could cause some of the worst flooding in decades.

Authorities in Vietnam say the typhoon, packing 90 mph winds, killed 38 people before heading further inland into Cambodia and heading toward Laos and Thailand. The storm has since weakened, but Cambodia’s province of Kampong Tham has been hard hit, with as many as 11 people reported dead and nearly 80 houses destroyed.

Vietnam has been left reeling from the devastation. The typhoon, which set down on Tuesday, destroyed nearly 300,000 homes and forced 357,000 people to evacuate, reports Reuters.

Some 50,000 acres of agricultural land have been affected. Waters have also flooded the ancient palace city of Hue, an UNESCO World Heritage Site, adds Agence France-Presse.

The worst may not be over. By Wednesday, rivers in Vietnam appeared ready to swell beyond levels not seen since 1964, reports Vietnam’s Thanh Nien news:

In fact, with the rainfall measuring up to 1,300 millimeters in some localities like Thua Thien – Hue on Tuesday evening, water levels in the Tra Bong River reached 5.58 meters, 0.19 meters higher than the historic flood peak in 1964.

Authorities were struggling Wednesday to reach areas cut off due to power outages and blocked roads, such as the Nhon Chau Island in Binh Dinh Province, where 2,000 people cannot be reached. Authorities say that, as river waters continues to rise, the biggest challenge is getting food to isolated populations and stopping the spread of diseases, Thanh Nien adds.

Prior to the typhoon touching down in Cambodia, Prime Minister Hun Sen made an urgent appeal to “authorities at all levels to take all necessary measures to protect the people who might be affected by the typhoon,” reports China’s Xinhua news service.

The BBC adds that international aid organizations and local government authorities in Cambodia were sending tents and food supplies to the affected province, which is about 80 miles north of the capital, Phnom Penh.

By Wednesday, the typhoon had downgraded to a tropical depression as it passed into Laos, where no casualties were reported, and was expected to make its way to Thailand, where residents were on alert for flash floods, according to MCOT English news.

As Southeast Asia feels the impact, the Philippines is still staggering to its feet from the devastation wrought there. Some two million people have been affected and 246 killed. Many in the capital, Manila, have been reduced to waiting on excruciatingly long lines for food, reports Bloomberg.
Morning 456. I'm headed out, but I'm going to try getting online later today (from work). This earthquake and Typhoon Ketsana on the same day - that's pretty rough for WPac and SPac communities....
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

The typhoon east of northern Mindanao has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was named "PEPENG".

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
=======================
At 5:00 p.m PhST, Typhoon Pepeng (Parma) located at 10.2ºN 135.0ºE or 940 kms east of Surigao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 km/h (65 kts) with gusts up to 150 km/h (80 kts).

Additional Information
===========================
This disturbance is still too far to affect any part of the country within the next 24-36 hours.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 P.M. today.
Melor is still forecasted for Guam

TD Ketsana sort of stationary near Laos/Thailand now according to JMA may dissipate afterall.
635. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning Ike. That wave is still looking respectable, though; it's the first one this month which actually seems to look half-way decent around the clock. Definitely it should bring some rain to the Antilles, hey?


That's about the only thing that catches my eye.
636. IKE
PWS about 6 miles from me...

" 51.0 %uFFFDF
Clear

Humidity: 98%
Dew Point: 50 %uFFFDF
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: 29.97 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft".....


I've got 55.9 degrees at my house. Stays warmer here being on a lake.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Melor is still forecasted for Guam

TD Ketsana sort of stationary near Laos/Thailand now according to JMA may dissipate afterall.


yea I noticed that. Unfortunately, thats the only way to get a good radar shot of a WPAC typhoon.
wonder if the wpac will teleconnect to the tw at 45w would not doubt anything this yr. might all of a sudden have something big knocking on one of our doors. the beaches here in ecent florida are still very ripe and ready outside 65 and its going to be a beautful day
639. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
wonder if the wpac will teleconnect to the tw at 45w would not doubt anything this yr. might all of a sudden have something big knocking on one of our doors. the beaches here in ecent florida are still very ripe and ready outside 65 and its going to be a beautful day


I doubt that wave at 45W makes it to the USA. The islands may get some rain from it.

From San Juan discussion...

"DURING FRIDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME MORE
MOIST...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...DIG SOUTHEAST...AND MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE
MONA CHANNEL...CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR LOCAL AREA."......


and.......

"IN
THE LONG TERM...MOISTURE COMING FROM THE DEEP TROPICS...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...INCREASING EVEN
MORE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS OR
TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OR EASTERN CARIBBEAN AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS."
8.0 earth quake in Sumatra
My Heart and Prayers go out to the WPAC and SPAC tonight as of right now it looks like Gods turning his back on you guys and letting mother nature do her work
642. IKE
JAKARTA, Indonesia (CNN) -- An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.9 struck Indonesia on Wednesday, the U.S. Geological Survey said.

The quake was recorded about 33 miles from Padang, the capital city of West Sumatra, which is home to more than 800,000 people.

Several buildings were damaged, Metro TV reported. People were seen running out of their homes and toward the hills.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a tsunami watch for Indonesia, India, Thailand and Malaysia.

NOAA could not immediately say whether the quake generated a tsunami, but such advisories are issued when a quake has the potential to cause one.

On Tuesday, a magnitude 8.0 quake -triggered tsunami killed at least 84 in the Samoan islands and Tonga.
is it looking like a Major Typhoon hitting Mainland China?
644. IKE
Wave at 45W doesn't even get a sniff....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1016Z 30 SEP 2009
COORDINATES - 0.9 SOUTH 99.9 EAST
LOCATION - SOUTHERN SUMATRA INDONESIA
MAGNITUDE - 7.6

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
PADANG ID 0.9S 100.4E 1046Z 0.27M / 0.9FT 20MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TSUNAMI WAS NOT
GENERATED. THEREFORE THE TSUNAMI WATCH ISSUED BY THIS CENTER
IS NOW CANCELLED.

Quoting IKE:
Wave at 45W doesn't even get a sniff....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
its itcz enhancement nothing more ike some showers for sa from that maybe southern windwards
647. IKE
Looking at the extended models...especially the 00Z ECMWF, it bombs a system off of New England the end of next week and shows strong high pressure building in behind it down to the SE USA.

Interesting to see if that plays out. May be the final nail in the coffin along the northern gulf-coast.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its itcz enhancement nothing more ike some showers for sa from that maybe southern windwards



I'm getting close to waving the white-flag on the Atlantic season.

More significant things going on in the rest of the world to complain about it though.

Another cane in the WPAC threatening.
Good Moring all palmbay Fla 69 It is really cool out side.
mdr windshear watching the little area near nicaraqua seems stationary
650. P451
Good Morning.

Multiple tragedies at once in the same region of the world. Quakes, Tsunamis, and excessive tropical rainfall. Not a good thing.

Meanwhile, we're closed for business in our neighborhood for now. I'd be just fine if it stays that way.

WV Imagery



RAINBOW Enhanced Imagery

651. P451
Quoting leftovers:
mdr windshear watching the little area near nicaraqua seems stationary


That general area has been active for days now. I'd say if we get anything in the next 10 days that it will be in the SW Caribbean.

I haven't checked any models in days (been very busy) but a couple of days ago multiple models were hinting at development in that region in the 7-14 day range. Which would be 4-11 days now.

Climatology favors the region and there is a lot of TCHP to be tapped.
whats next? should have a blog called the disaster zone seems like the burma cyclone was yesterday
Gorgeous morning in Central Florida.
The windows are open two nights in a row :)
Relief from the heat is here, finally!
Just wish it would last into the days.
Lots of seismic activity out there and
misery in other parts of the world.
Fugate is a trusted name in Florida.
Let's hope he can turn FEMA around and restore its credibility.
Morning,

Hey Ike, wonderful weather we are having here on the Panhandle!
A lot to be thankful for as we look to the Philippines and Vietnam.
This is the best time of year here on the NGOM coast!

Everyone have a great day, hi-ho, hi-ho, its off to work I go!
655. IKE
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Morning,

Hey Ike, wonderful weather we are having here on the Panhandle!
A lot to be thankful for as we look to the Philippines and Vietnam.
This is the best time of year here on the NGOM coast!

Everyone have a great day, hi-ho, hi-ho, its off to work I go!


Happy selling!

55.4 was my low this morning.
653. Chicklit

I could learn to love this weather! LOL

Often think it would be nice to have these temps year round... but then we would not be Florida, vacation paradise, would we?

Ike,

I show 53.3... wow! Lovely morning, do I have to go to work?? LOL

Later!
658. P451
Quoting leftovers:
whats next? should have a blog called the disaster zone seems like the burma cyclone was yesterday


I'm just going to bite my tongue on "what's next".

It's been quiet in many areas known for disaster. They are due unfortunately and history will repeat. I'm not mentioning anywhere in particular. I'm kind of cursed that way.

Meanwhile, good to see Fall in full swing already. Looking forward to a potentially active winter here in NJ.



Graphics Update:






57.3F on the shores of beautiful Bayou Grande this morn. Gotta love it! Have a good day everyone!
Chicklit, PensacolaDoug, Beachfoxx and Ike,

Enjoy your cool weather!
Morning Orca -
Your blog is sooo funny. Almost as popular as this one.

Overcast here today w/ slightly cooler temps. Should be a little easier for os work.

Speaking of which, time to go make some dough. Hope everyone has a great day...
Quoting zebralove:
does anyone have any weather related ideas as to why in spring hill fl after haveing seen 0 big bumble bees would we have found 15 of them hanging out around the front porch light tonight? Is it possible they are acting different because of the cold front moving across the states?


Funny you should say that. Three days ago I looked outside and there was a SWARM of bees flying around my house, must have been thousands. I have seen very few since. Maybe it is just the time of year they spawn or look for a new nest and make a new queen??? Don't really know. South Florida here...
Quoting mikatnight:
Morning Orca -
Your blog is sooo funny. Almost as popular as this one.

Overcast here today w/ slightly cooler temps. Should be a little easier for os work.

Speaking of which, time to go make some dough. Hope everyone has a great day...


This blog you can learn something... the comments section in my is just light hearted comic relief from a stressful day :)
Parma is what Dr. Steve Lyons would call a "Vorticane" I believe.

He called Hurricane Carlos that earlier this year but it was about half Parma's size.
Quoting IKE:
Wave at 45W doesn't even get a sniff ...



I would say it should have but because the 'models' don't predect anything they don't say anything, until of course its staring everyone in the face.

QuickSat about five (5) hours ago showed a definite shift in the surface wind around 44/45W between 10 & 13N ...



... and recent satellite pictures ...



... are beginning to show some form of organisation. It may not last mind you but the next few hours should be interesting.

GFS model does have a flicker of something in the this area too but does not hold it, but then have the models been that spot on this season so far, no, we've had a few hard cases - seems like an El Nino year puts the models out to sea in some cases.

We've seen a good run on the models in the last couple of years but this shows that they are not perfect.

Later.
Good Morning guys,

so my parents are camping up at Lake Placid, New York, and my dad calls and tells me it's snowing
Quoting Orcasystems:


This blog you can learn something... the comments section in my is just light hearted comic relief from a stressful day :)


Says alot about the stress level when yours is so popular.

Quoting Dakster:


Funny you should say that. Three days ago I looked outside and there was a SWARM of bees flying around my house, must have been thousands. I have seen very few since. Maybe it is just the time of year they spawn or look for a new nest and make a new queen??? Don't really know. South Florida here...


"If the bee disappears from the surface of the earth, man would have no more than four years to live."
Albert Einstein

Now I really gotta git...
671. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting winter123:
THREE systems in a row in the WPAC? This has to be some kind of record. Like least total distance between three storms.


Link
I think I saw seven storms all lined up in the Pacific in the 1970,s. I used your avatar for the backdrop on the computer,hope you dont mind.
Quoting Magicchaos:
Parma is what Dr. Steve Lyons would call a "Vorticane" I believe.

He called Hurricane Carlos that earlier this year but it was about half Parma's size.
Vortcane does not sound right. Over in the Indian ocean they use the term Micro-cyclone, I think that sounds more appropriate. On the other hand, one micro-cyclone just 31 miles wide skirted up the coast and killed 1500 people. Nothing micro about that.
Quoting hydrus:
I think I saw seven storms all lined up in the Pacific in the 1970,s. I used your avatar for the backdrop on the computer,hope you dont mind.


LOL of course not. 7? could you possibly get an image? I've seen it active, but never 7... maybe 5, very far apart
ugh. took me this long to figure out theres a new blog. /facedeskcausenosebleed