WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Typhoon Guchol approaches southern Japan; 95L no threat to U.S.

By: Angela Fritz 7:45 PM GMT on June 18, 2012

Typhoon Guchol is a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of 110 mph, gusting to 130mph. Guchol is on a path to southern Japan, where it is expected to make landfall Tuesday evening. The typhoon is moving north-northeast at 20 mph, and has been weakening, a trend that the Joint Typhoon Warning Center thinks will continue. Guchol's eye is completely clouded over, and the heavy thunderstorms on the west side of the typhoon have weakened, possibly due to an increase in wind shear from the west. Both Guchol and Talim, a tropical storm in the South China Sea, are drenched in tropical moisture. The elements that prevent Guchol from maintaining its strength are increasing wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperature.


Figure 1. High resolution, true color satellite imagery from MODIS of Typhoon Guchol captured today, June 18th, at 12:45 am EDT.

Forecast for Guchol
Guchol is forecast to weaken further as it continues its track northeast toward Japan. Sea surface temperature will decrease as the typhoon moves north out of favorable water, and wind shear is expected to continue to increase. Guchol will probably start to become non-tropical as it makes landfall near Kyoto. However, tropical storm conditions, heavy rain and gusty winds will likely affect a large portion of Japan through Wednesday. The Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts that up to 16 inches of rain (40 cm) is possible from Guchol, and so flash flooding and landslides are a potential hazard from the storm.

North Atlantic Invest 95L

An area of thunderstorms in the North Atlantic now has a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, according to the National Hurricane Center. 95L originally spun up as a non-tropical disturbance, but is starting to gain tropical characteristics. It's possible that, if 95L gains enough strength, it will be characterized as subtropical. This system poses no threat to the U.S. or Canada—models agree that 95L will track east away from North America, and will likely remain weak should it develop.


Figure 2. North Atlantic invest 95L as of 2pm EDT on June 18th.

Angela

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Talim is a somewhat interesting tropical cyclone, looks like it's gonna impact a broad part of coastal Asia including China, Taiwan, and Japan. Shear is inhibiting it for now, and it looks like SSTs and topography are gonna be a problem soon, so probably no typhoon. Full analysis and forecast on my blog

GUYS THIS IS WHAT I HATE... we get all exited as a low develops and we see the chances go up to get classified and at the last push it backs off and dies... sooooooo disappointing
Quoting lobdelse81:

Just an observation: So you may know that TWC has this series called "It Could Happen Tomorrow" and I am surprised that they make no mention of a scenario where a strong cat 3 or weak cat 4 hurricane hits Norfolk/VA Beach and then moves rapidly up the western side of the Chesapeake Bay. I imagine that could pose a serious problem for Baltimore and communities along that area.


Isabel put 4 feet of water in Fels Point and the Inner Harbor.
But we got no national attention for it.
I have friends who kayaked in Fels Point and Canton and stuff.
The Eastern Shore of Maryland was torn up though. Big surge (i don't know.... 6-8 feet, maybe 10-12' in some spots, don't quote me.)
Friends of my parents had their house swept away.

Irene was a cake-walk here compared to that.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
GUYS THIS IS WHAT I HATE... we get all exited as a low develops and we see the chances go up to get classified and at the last push it backs off and dies... sooooooo disappointing

Tomorrow is going to be a good day for 95L, I believe.
The 00z Surface Analysis.

All of the places with "shields" will eventually be hit by a major. It's just a matter of when. But in the meantime, while we wait, if you're going to give strong weighting to what we've observed in the last 200 years or so, then you have to say that Tampa has a pretty strong probability shield. The odds say we see hits in other places multiple times before we see a Tampa hit.
Quoting LargoFl:
............whew, get ready Miami and south florida..that is ALOT of rain down there


I want some of that there rain!
19/0000 UTC 17.3N 107.6W T1.5/1.5 95E -- East Pacific


Quoting CosmicEvents:
All of the places with "shields" will eventually be hit by a major. It's just a matter of when. But in the meantime, while we wait, if you're going to give strong weighting to what we've observed in the last 200 years or so, then you have to say that Tampa has a pretty strong probability shield. The odds say we see hits in other places multiple times before we see a Tampa hit.
If Tampa were to face a direct hit, I think only BaltOCane could save them. Know what I'm sayin ...?
Have a good night everyone...I'm off to bed.
Local KBMT take on things. That could be good for Mexico as long as it doesn't get strong.

The Tropics are quiet currently with the exception of a developing system in the North Atlantic off the East Coast which will move away from U.S.

Cloudiness and showers are becoming more prevalent in the Northwestern Caribbean. A disturbance is expected to move through the Yucatan Channel or over Western Cuba Late Tuesday Night and into the Gulf of Mexico. By Friday or Saturday, a broad area of low pressure is expected to develop off the NW Yucatan. At the same time, upper-level high pressure will develop over Texas and the South Central U.S. This will block anything in the gulf and shunt it to the west well south of our area. By early next week, it is possible a tropical depression or weak tropical storm could develop in the Bay of Campeche before moving inland near Tampico, Mexico late Tuesday Night.

Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I would have to agree. The ridge that will build in the east will prevent that scenario. Well, at least most of the models are predicting the ridge building in the east in 5-6 days.... These models have been going nuts!! Who knows what they will say tomorrow lol


What would you prefer they say?
Quoting nigel20:
Have a good night everyone...I'm off to bed.
Goodnight Nigel20!! I love this guy, he's much better than Nigels 18 or 19.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
All of the places with "shields" will eventually be hit by a major. It's just a matter of when. But in the meantime, while we wait, if you're going to give strong weighting to what we've observed in the last 200 years or so, then you have to say that Tampa has a pretty strong probability shield. The odds say we see hits in other places multiple times before we see a Tampa hit.
yes your right i guess, the indians lived here, then the spanish built here and so on,..so to them it looked like a safe area..now we..think its a safe area, even in 1921, the last recorded hurricane strike..didnt actually HIT tampa bay, it came in north of us up in tarpon springs
Hebert's Box is the greatest weather innovation of the past millennium tbh.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Whoa 95L hit some shear!



Too bad it wasn't named Chris prior to that radar loop.. then we'd have two consecutive Chris's getting decapitated by shear... and caught on a sat loop
Quoting WeatherfanPR:



everything is working fine. at least for me. maybe there's a problem with your browser, slow internet or something else. Question: This happens to you only when there's a post of a video ? take a look.


PRweathercenter, great explanation by the way.


I didn't have any problems and I watched the video.
Quoting Jedkins01:



If models continue on the current trend, I agree that we will get absolutely drenched, even more so then even a couple weeks ago. But as I said before, this is only a recent trend, I would absolutely love to see this pattern actually happen, I'm just not going to jump all over it till I see model consistency, if the models keep this trend through tomorrow night and I see signs that it may verify, then I will get more excited. I do think.


For example, local forecasters around here are mentioning the potential for very heavy rainfall, however they also note that it is only a recent trend and models over all have been inconsistent. Therefore, they are only showing 40% each day Thursday into next Monday until models trend steady and in more agreement in this direction.

I hope that clears things up, cause after all it was just Saturday into yesterday morning that the models were showing high pressure keeping a strong hold over Central and North Florida. It has just recently trended away from that, we need more consistency, however I sure hope it continues on this trend, that's for sure!


My buddy in Estero in SW Florida is crying drought to me everytime I talk with him. Hope that rainy forecast comes true for him.How many runs in a row has that shown up? Are the majority of models onboard?
Quoting CosmicEvents:
All of the places with "shields" will eventually be hit by a major. It's just a matter of when. But in the meantime, while we wait, if you're going to give strong weighting to what we've observed in the last 200 years or so, then you have to say that Tampa has a pretty strong probability shield. The odds say we see hits in other places multiple times before we see a Tampa hit.


Speaking of odds and time, I was under the impression until recently that Texas had never been hit by a tropical storm or hurricane in November. There are two such storms known but were before the 1850 record keeping and they were 300 years apart. So I guess it's rare but it can happen.

November 1527:
There is record of a storm sinking the poorly-anchored boat of Panfilade Narvaez off Galveston Island. Up to 200 lives were taken in this storm. This is the first record known of storms along the Texas coastline and also one of the most unusual...it struck during the month of November; only one hurricane has ever struck during November (1839).

November 5th, 1839: A hurricane struck Galveston unusually late in the year.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
GUYS THIS IS WHAT I HATE... we get all exited as a low develops and we see the chances go up to get classified and at the last push it backs off and dies... sooooooo disappointing
It still could get named.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tomorrow is going to be a good day for 95L, I believe.


how come? It's being sheared now... would it have another chance?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how come? It's being sheared now... would it have another chance?
ALLANCALDERINI !! What do you think?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


how come? It's being sheared now... would it have another chance?

Wind shear is already down to 20 knots and should fall below 10 tonight into tomorrow morning.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wind shear is already down to 20 knots and should fall below 10 tonight into tomorrow morning.


awesome...


significant rain threat

poss 10 to 15 inches in isolated spots
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wind shear is already down to 20 knots and should fall below 10 tonight into tomorrow morning.
I notice you're at 16999 comments, can we get just one more from you tonight?
Quoting HurricanePookie:
Dr. Masters may not believe in the Tampa Shield, but I do.

It even breaks up strong thunderstorms.


Here in Texas we have something similar except it isn't so much a shield as it is a Death Ridge...
Quoting kipperedherring:
I notice you're at 16999 comments, can we get just one more from you tonight?

Sure. :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Sure. :P
Awesome! Glad I could be here when you hit the big 17000! Thank you!
anyway I am out see ya'll in the morn
My geatest fear is a direct hit from the south on Mobile Bay. The closest we've come is Ivan. That went to the east of the Bay, but had a wind swath of hurricane force or greater winds all the way to Birmingham. A direct hit on the Bay from the south from a Cat 4 or 5 would cause a storm surge extending almost 40 miles inland and the wind swath would be at least as bad as Ivan, with much higher winds within 100 miles of the coast. Mobile Bay has never suffered a direct hit from the south in recorded hurricane history, but one happening is inevitable. The damage to eastern Mississippi, coastal to central Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle would be incredible. I don't know what the emergency plans are like in the other two states, but Alabama is completely unprepared to deal with a catastrophe of this magnitude.
17,000 comments in 2 years. That shows you I really have no life, lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
17,000 comments in 2 years. That shows you I really have no life, lol.


Not really, just as long as those 17000 are legitimate comments. I don't think I've ever seen one of yours removed before.
Ah gotta love the NAM. :)

ATLANTIC BASIN

- A broad, long zone of moisture, low pressure, and areas of spin in the atmosphere will be present this week from the eastern Pacific across Central America, the southern Gulf, western Caribbean, and into the subtropical Atlantic.

- The most likely time/place for all of that to coalesce into a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin, if it finally occurs there, is in the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the week into the weekend.

- Also, convection (showers & thunderstorms) has flared up at times since Sunday in the west-central Caribbean; during the next few days this portion of that aforementioned elongated zone of stuff will bring locally heavy rain to the northwest Caribbean islands and then maybe the northwest Bahamas and parts of Florida.

- A low pressure system in the Atlantic is trying to take on some characteristics of a tropical or subtropical cyclone, but is northeast of Bermuda and moving out to sea.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
17,000 comments in 2 years. That shows you I really have no life, lol.
No, it's good that you have an interest/passion about something. It's a lot healthier than playing video games, which is what many of your peers are doing. Everything in moderation though has always been the advice I've given my son in life.
A question for someone to answer if they do not mind. I understand that the colored map in progressives post (520)represents vorticity, but what is the significance of 500,700 and 850mb's? I am novice so an "idiots guide to storms" type of answer would be appreciated. TIA
541. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
17,000 comments in 2 years. That shows you I really have no life, lol.


I don't even have half that in 5 years...

Nah I do. XD My real total is 11,180, I have to count my original account to be fair.


gonna blow up right over kman
Quoting want2lrn:
A question for someone to answer if they do not mind. I understand that the colored map in progressives post (520)represents vorticity, but what is the significance of 500,700 and 850mb's? I am novice so an "idiots guide to storms" type of answer would be appreciated. TIA

Those maps just represent the amount of vorticity--the amount of spin--in certain levels of the atmosphere. The 850 millibar level is typically referred to as the lower-levels of the atmosphere, the 700/500 millibar levels are typically referred to as the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and the 200 millibar level is typically referred to as the upper level of the atmosphere. Tropical cyclones are most noticeable at 850 millibars.
Quoting kipperedherring:
ALLANCALDERINI !! What do you think?
Maybe if it can retain the 60% it have right now tomorrow could develop into Chris tomorrow we will know if are going to have Chris of this or not.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
19/0000 UTC 17.3N 107.6W T1.5/1.5 95E -- East Pacific


95 E has some nice spin to it
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Those maps just represent the amount of vorticity--the amount of spin--in certain levels of the atmosphere. The 850 millibar level is typically referred to as the lower-levels of the atmosphere, the 700/500 millibar levels are typically referred to as the mid-levels of the atmosphere, and the 200 millibar level is typically referred to as the upper level of the atmosphere. Tropical cyclones are most noticeable at 850 millibars.


Thank you Tropic
I'm expecting a renumber by daybreak.



I got 107,000 comments
549. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


gonna blow up right over kman


Getting convection much closer to the 850mb vort, along with some convergence and divergence and moderate shear, it's getting interesting there.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm expecting a renumber by daybreak.



Poor .mx


i know its the nam
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Ah gotta love the NAM. :)

yup,you are getting 2 for the price of 1

Quoting Tazmanian:
I got 107,000 comments
Quoting JLPR2:


Getting convection much closer to the 850mb vort, along with some convergence and divergence and moderate shear, it's getting interesting there.
there could be a window opening
511. AtHomeInTexas......thanks you have told what I needed to know as I popped in to check. Goodnight All.....
556. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there could be a window opening


Yep, all the ingredients are there, so now we play the waiting game. XD


if match strike fire could be T.C.A.
Had a few light showers here in cayman today looks interesting south of us right now, light rain outside but heavy stuff on the way!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


gonna blow up right over kman

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i know its the nam

...NAM'S the bomb were the CONUS is concerned. Though that is it's nature
560. emguy
The westward retrograding Upper Level Low in the Gulf of Mexico is typically a sign of an early season system that moves through the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. These are typically weak/lopsided systems. If the Upper level Low currently in the Gulf eventually stalls somewhere around 95 degrees west, this system will likely affect areas somewhere in the eastern half of the Gulf. At least...that is the typical playout for such a setup...
Quoting Tazmanian:
I got 107,000 comments


ding ding ding............and the winner is........
95L really needs a good DMAX or I doubt we will get a named storm from it.
Hey guys I just had to comeback to say that I think the circulation may relocate closer to 15N 81W near to where the convection is blowing up
Lol. It's not a perfect match but look at the red outline of the ridge over Texas. Lol that just aint fair.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
95L really needs a good DMAX or I doubt we will get a named storm from it.

it may get its name I have seen much worse and it was named so...
anyway I am off
BIG PICTURE 30 MINS OLD

567. wxmod
Big dust crossing the Atlantic. MODIS today

Quoting midgulfmom:
511. AtHomeInTexas......thanks you have told what I needed to know as I popped in to check. Goodnight All.....


You're welcome. :)
Can anyone tell me which models we are believing today...majority vote please.
None of the models are believable?
Quoting lobdelse81:

Just an observation: So you may know that TWC has this series called "It Could Happen Tomorrow" and I am surprised that they make no mention of a scenario where a strong cat 3 or weak cat 4 hurricane hits Norfolk/VA Beach and then moves rapidly up the western side of the Chesapeake Bay. I imagine that could pose a serious problem for Baltimore and communities along that area.


Yeah... all that water/storm surge gets backed up through all the communities along the James, York, Rappahannock, and especially Potomac, and further north the bays and estuaries. Richmond, Fredricksburg, DC, Baltimore and Annapolis are very vulnerable.

And you know.... about the "It Could Happen Tomorrow", I was just thinking the same thing!
I thought I had seen earlier,not to believe the operational models,just the ensemble members???
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
None of the models are believable?


Guess not.
Quoting Tazmanian:
I got 107,000 comments


Makes my 5,781 pathetic... you are one dedicated blogger taz!
Best I could tell the GFS looks like the ridge vs trough race. It starts out taking the low into the NE GOM. If the timing's right with that trough you'd think it would pull it across Fl. and up the east coast. But it looks like a ridge builds in just in time to turn it west. Then another ridge builds in to turn it SW. Eventually takes it into Mexico. So as usual wait and see. Lol. I know, I'm no help at all. :)

I must be on almost everyones ignore list....lol
GFS is at it again with its tricks! We should just ignore the models and watch how the nw carribean aoi cause its starting to look interesting!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I must be on almost everyones ignore list....lol


Not on mine.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Best I could tell the GFS looks like the ridge vs trough race. It starts out taking the low into the NE GOM. If the timing's right with that trough you'd think it would pull it across Fl. and up the east coast. But it looks like a ridge builds in just in time to turn it west. Then another ridge builds in to turn it SW. Eventually takes it into Mexico. So as usual wait and see. Lol. I know, I'm no help at all. :)



thank you very much!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I must be on almost everyones ignore list....lol


Not so Joe. I was busy with my scientific analysis of the GFS run. Lol. But I don't think you can take any of the models at face value this far out. They just give you an idea of how things might play out.


Typhoon Guchol still looking ok,if it is still a Typhoon and it's in tow follower Talim,not so much.
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
GFS is at it again with its tricks! We should just ignore the models and watch how the nw carribean aoi cause its starting to look interesting!


I don't think I can NOT watch the models. Lol. I may be addicted. :p But I'm watching the Caribbean too. :)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I must be on almost everyones ignore list....lol
You are not in mine.:)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
95L really needs a good DMAX or I doubt we will get a named storm from it.
Agree probably will not get name if it doesn`t start firing convection.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Not so Joe. I was busy with my scientific analysis of the GFS run. Lol. But I don't think you can take any of the models at face value this far out. They just give you an idea of how things might play out.
and I appreciate it :)
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


thank you very much!


You're welcome. :)
Cuz I don't know what to believe. There was like a catfight in here between several people going back and forth about the next xtorm going to Texas or Florida.
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
GFS is at it again with its tricks! We should just ignore the models and watch how the nw carribean aoi cause its starting to look interesting!


what do ya mean by "tricks"?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_marine/ifp/ind ex.php?large&basin=nh2&parm=pmsl#contents
95L got some wind shear on it!!
Copy and paste link in post 589 for interesting surface pressure graphics for GOMEX next few days
I meant to post link, sorry....
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Cuz I don't know what to believe. There was like a catfight in here between several people going back and forth about the next xtorm going to Texas or Florida.


Lol. Yes it can be confusing. And the TX vs FL thing happens every year. :) In the NHC outlook while ago it said that everything was still so up in the air with multiple lows within the bigger monsoonal flow that the models may mean nothing at this time. So I guess being confused is ok. We're in good company. :)
Perhaps it might be a bit of wishcasting. But that doesn't happen in here anymore? I remember some guy last year was like every storm was gonna hit Florida and was going insane about Irene.
going up to 90% or 100% by 2am!! its look like a tropical storm to me.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. Yes it can be confusing. And the TX vs FL thing happens every year. :) In the NHC outlook while ago it said that everything was still so up in the air with multiple lows within the bigger monsoonal flow that the models may mean nothing at this time. So I guess being confused is ok. We're in good company. :)
oh ok. I guess I can put my Xanax away....phew!!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
oh ok. I guess I can put my Xanax away....phew!!


Or you could share. Lol. j/k
Quoting canehater1:
Copy and paste link in post 589 for interesting surface pressure graphics for GOMEX next few days
I meant to post link, sorry....


Thanks never looked there before. Cut and paste wouldn't work in my browser but I found it (I think.) Link
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Or you could share. Lol. j/k
LOL I always share
That Western Caribbean blob is getting going. It's kind of merging with what's left of the one that rained on Hispaniola. Caymons, Cuba, then SFL on Wed & thursday~ Turns left in the Gulf of MX, staying kind of weak toward Brownsville?

Fukushima is still in 2 cones of doom. May see 65kts easy in a little over 24hrs.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
LOL I always share


Good to know it's gonna be a long season. Lol.
Quoting sar2401:
My geatest fear is a direct hit from the south on Mobile Bay. The closest we've come is Ivan. That went to the east of the Bay, but had a wind swath of hurricane force or greater winds all the way to Birmingham. A direct hit on the Bay from the south from a Cat 4 or 5 would cause a storm surge extending almost 40 miles inland and the wind swath would be at least as bad as Ivan, with much higher winds within 100 miles of the coast. Mobile Bay has never suffered a direct hit from the south in recorded hurricane history, but one happening is inevitable. The damage to eastern Mississippi, coastal to central Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle would be incredible. I don't know what the emergency plans are like in the other two states, but Alabama is completely unprepared to deal with a catastrophe of this magnitude.


Seems to me that Hurricane Frederic was a Cat 4 hurricane
that hit Mobile Bay (and Mobile itself) directly, and approached
from the south. That was in September of 1979.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Lol. It's not a perfect match but look at the red outline of the ridge over Texas. Lol that just aint fair.



Is this predicted to change?
Quoting weatherganny:


Is this predicted to change?


Yes, it seemed to breakdown and move on in that model run. Instead of sitting there for months again.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Lol. It's not a perfect match but look at the red outline of the ridge over Texas. Lol that just aint fair.



I think that's the 2 meter, 30 degree centigrade isotherm. There's still a good solid bit of divergence there at the surface though as the wind barbs in the center of the state show.

edit: typo.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yes, it seemed to breakdown and move on in that model run. Instead of sitting there for months again.


Thanks....still not good and interpreting the models...LOL
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yes, it seemed to breakdown and move on in that model run. Instead of sitting there for months again.


Which run showed the high changing/not being a factor?
Quoting nofailsafe:


I think that's the 2 meter, 30 degree centigrade isotherm. There's still a good solid bit of divergence there are the surface though as the wind barbs in the center of the state show.



Ah ok. Thanks. It just looked like a "no rain zone" I'll get this stuff strait one day. :)
Quoting weatherganny:


Thanks....still not good and interpreting the models...LOL


Lol. Me either. See nofailsafe's entry.
Quoting zillaTX:


Which run showed the high changing/not being a factor?


Apparently that wasn't the shape of the ridge. But throughout that model run anyway it did show the highs being broken down and moving on off and on. So hopefully they don't get stuck like last year.
and we have our 2AM...



000
ABNT20 KNHC 190530
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW
LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAVE DECREASED THIS
EVENING. THE CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ARE DECREASING
AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Seems to me that Hurricane Frederic was a Cat 4 hurricane
that hit Mobile Bay (and Mobile itself) directly, and approached
from the south. That was in September of 1979.


I don't mean to sound like a know-it-all so if I come off like that let me go ahead and apologize. But Frederic came up more from a SSE trajectory into Mobile Bay, with the eye passing directly over it I believe. So the storm surge could actually have been much worse had it made landfall say in the Pascagoula MS area.

(NHC) ATCF data for 95L on 19June_6amGMT

Copy&paste isp, bda, yyt, sma, 28.8n68.8w- 29.2n67.1w- 30.4n65.3w- 31.7n64.0w- 33.4n63.5w- 35.3n62.5w- 36.8n61.9w- 38.0n61.3w- 38.5n60.5w- 39.1n59.6w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
Coastal crawler from Louisiana finally into Brownsville. Not unlike the NAM and GFS run. Lol. I should shut up now.


Quoting aspectre:


And there it is. :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ah ok. Thanks. It just looked like a "no rain zone" I'll get this stuff strait one day. :)


:) Well, in the ptot (total precipitation) it sure just about is. Long story short, it's going to be a very hot next week down here on the Texas gulf coast.
Quoting nofailsafe:


:) Well, in the ptot (total precipitation) it sure just about is. Long story short, it's going to be a very hot next week down here on the Texas gulf coast.


Yep, that's what I've been reading. :)
2. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yep, that's what I've been reading. :)


unless the high weakens? ;p cross fingers?
Hmm... 95L looks horrible.

The center is almost devoid of convection, and if it doesn't get some convection near the center soon, it might not have a chance of becoming a (sub)tropical cyclone.
By the way, 95L already has 40 kt winds, so it would be Chris if it was (sub)tropical.

Here is the satellite picture of the Atlantic basin.
looking interesting in the carribean! and east pacific.
(NHC) ATCF data for 95E on 19June_6amGMT

Copy&paste tpq, pvr, zlo, lzc, 15.5n111.2w- 16.2n111.0w- 16.9n110.3w- 17.3n109.2w- 17.4n108.9w- 17.4n108.6w- 17.3n108.2w- 17.3n107.8w- 17.4n107.4w- 17.7n107.1 into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
Miyagawa in Tokai prefecture of Japan has recorded 316.5mm (~12.4") rain in the last 12 hours from Typhoon Guchol
Here it comes!

Link
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
FLC011-021-043-051-086-087-099-191800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND
KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY TO 3 TO 5 INCHES SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY. AS
TYPICALLY OBSERVED DURING THESE EVENTS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR. INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS
FOR UPDATES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
TREND...AND CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...A FLOOD WATCH
COULD BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

$$

BAXTER
...................Good Morning everyone..looks like an interesting few days coming up for Florida, stay alert to your local warnings this coming week and weekend
602 FLWaterFront: Seems to me that Hurricane Frederic was a Cat 4 hurricane that hit Mobile Bay (and Mobile itself) directly, and approached from the south. That was in September of 1979.

HurricaneFrederic was a 135mph Cat.4 at its last ATCF position before landfall.
By the time it hit DauphinIsland(4R9), Frederic was a 125mph Cat.3 falling toward the 110mph Cat.2 at its first ATCF position after landfall.

"Storm surge damage was reported along 80 miles of coastline from Mississippi to Florida, with tides 8to12feet (2.4to3.7metres) above the normal level being observed.
Near-total property damage occurred along the...coastline between Fort Morgan and Gulf Shores [redlined eastward to GUF], the latter seeing 80% of its buildings completely destroyed."

And what was learned from "the costliest*hurricane in the history of the United States at the time"?
"...in testimony before Congress in 1992, ...the director of the National Hurricane Center...described the economic aftermath: Prior to Hurricane Frederic, there was one condominium complex on Gulf Shores, Alabama. Most of the homes were single, individual homes built behind the sand dunes. Today... there are now at least 104 complexes -- not units, complexes -- on Gulf Shores, Alabama."

Wanna place bets on what's gonna be on the similarly shattered BolivarPenisula by 2020?

* ie without adjusting for inflation.
631. MahFL
Quoting weatherh98:


wait you can get banned for advertising your wunderblog?


It was an external website not a wunderblog, he also apparently did some other bad stuff too.
We traded a red crayon for a yellow one and an orange
People in FL that live in low lying areas better have a flood plan in place as you will need it later this week and into the weekend as the models especially for western FL are indicating 10" to 20" of rain over the next 7 days.



CMC 5 ay precip map.
634. MahFL
Quoting lobdelse81:

Just an observation: So you may know that TWC has this series called "It Could Happen Tomorrow" and I am surprised that they make no mention of a scenario where a strong cat 3 or weak cat 4 hurricane hits Norfolk/VA Beach and then moves rapidly up the western side of the Chesapeake Bay. I imagine that could pose a serious problem for Baltimore and communities along that area.


Thats too far north into cold waters to maintain a Cat4.
Moisture is already moving up the FL Penisula.


morning guys looks like PRE-96L is trying to reform or relocate it circulation near 16N 82W but I am waiting for the first couple of vis images to come in first before I can know this for sure
Good Morning. Here is the NHC Marine discussion:

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
353 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
CMAN...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SHOW EAST
WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE...BETWEEN A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE MAIN ISSUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE ADVANCE OF 1009 MB LOW PRES NOW
OVER HONDURAS MOVING THROUGH YUCATAN AND INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF
BY LATE THU. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
SHOW THIS FEATURE AS A BROAD LOW REACHING THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 24N93W BY EARLY SAT WITH A MSLP AROUND 1006 MB. THE UKMET
AND NOGAPS ARE SIMILAR BUT SHOW LOW PRES IN THE NW GULF BY EARLY
SAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF...BUT FAVORS THE STRONGER GFS REGARDING FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN GULF...BETWEEN THE LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AND THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL REACH 7 FT OVER
THE NE GULF BY LATE SAT DUE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA FROM WED ONWARD TO THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE 1009 MB SURFACE LOW THAT HAD
BEEN OFF NE NICARAGUA 24 HOURS AGO IS NOW OVER EASTERN
HONDURAS...WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD CENTRAL
CUBA. THE LOW AND TROUGH COMBINATION WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH LATE THU. SW WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE TO SHEAR THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NE OF THE CENTER.
THE UPPER SHEAR AND INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAND ARE PREVENTING THE
LOW FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENING IN THE NEAR TERM. 15 TO 20 KT NE
TO E WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH.

Morning all. Looks like maybe S TX or Mexico will get some much needed rain coming up. We are getting mid to upper 90's. :)

THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED
THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW
DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING THE SYSTEM A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF...SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE 06Z NAM SHOWS GENERALLY SHOWS THE SAME TRACK AS
WELL. WITH ALL OF THE FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER OUR REGION...THE GENERALLY W TO WNW TREND IS
PREFERRED...AND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
OVER THE GULF DURING THE PERIOD. AGAIN...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION
NORTH OF THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SUDDEN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION.
Quoting sar2401:
My geatest fear is a direct hit from the south on Mobile Bay. The closest we've come is Ivan. That went to the east of the Bay, but had a wind swath of hurricane force or greater winds all the way to Birmingham. A direct hit on the Bay from the south from a Cat 4 or 5 would cause a storm surge extending almost 40 miles inland and the wind swath would be at least as bad as Ivan, with much higher winds within 100 miles of the coast. Mobile Bay has never suffered a direct hit from the south in recorded hurricane history, but one happening is inevitable. The damage to eastern Mississippi, coastal to central Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle would be incredible. I don't know what the emergency plans are like in the other two states, but Alabama is completely unprepared to deal with a catastrophe of this magnitude.
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
427 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE SE
GULF WED AS AN ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRES AREA MOVES THROUGH THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF BY
LATE THU...THEN DRIFT NW TO NEAR 24N93W BY LATE SAT AS THE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Seems to me that Hurricane Frederic was a Cat 4 hurricane
that hit Mobile Bay (and Mobile itself) directly, and approached
from the south. That was in September of 1979.


sar, Tell us why you think Alabama is un-prepared?
Lack of preparation, a plan for evacuation, a plan for recovery? I am very interested in your thoughts. :)
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Morning all. Looks like maybe S TX or Mexico will get some much needed rain coming up. We are getting mid to upper 90's. :)

THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED
THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW
DEVELOPMENT...KEEPING THE SYSTEM A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF...SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE 06Z NAM SHOWS GENERALLY SHOWS THE SAME TRACK AS
WELL. WITH ALL OF THE FORECAST MODELS SHOWING THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING STRONG OVER OUR REGION...THE GENERALLY W TO WNW TREND IS
PREFERRED...AND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
OVER THE GULF DURING THE PERIOD. AGAIN...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION
NORTH OF THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SUDDEN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION.


The High Pressure ridge is definitely holding strong
We have Winds form ESE at 15 kts gusting to 20 kts
at 28 N and 88.8 W at our drilling rig location.

id definitely
Quoting canehater1:


The High Pressure ridge is definitely holding strong
We have Winds form ESE at 15 kts gusting to 20 kts
at 28 N and 88.8 W at our drilling rig location.

id definitely


Hope it doesn't get too rocky out there. :)
Morning guys anyone think we are going to get a LLC out of the cayman blob......... If so, When i want something to track lol
IMHO, I would be a little weary of the scenario that is being set up for them. First they are going to be inundated with a ton of rain, then immediately following that there could be a tropical system moving in right behind that rain. Everything is already going to be soaked and flooded, then some winds come along and there is a real chance that even a small tropical depression could a significant amount of damage.
ASCAT for Carib shows Low center over E Honduras



href="http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_im ages/cur_25km_TEST/zooms/WMBas76.png" target="_blank">Link
Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
Morning guys anyone think we are going to get a LLC out of the cayman blob......... If so, When i want something to track lol


I think it is reforming or relocating near 16N 82W waiting for vis loop to check
Quoting canehater1:
ASCAT for Carib shows Low center over E Honduras



href="http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_im ages/cur_25km_TEST/zooms/WMBas76.png" target="_blank">Link

that is from like 1am this morn and it showed it more like on the coast but I think it maybe reforming or relocating near 16N 82W I'm just waiting for vis sat loop to come in
some great webcams from toyko: http://weathernews.jp/livecam/cgi/livecam_disp.cg i?liveid=410004200
http://weathernews.jp/livecam/cgi/livecam_disp.cg i?liveid=410001083

with wind and rainfall rates
more here:http://weathernews.jp/livecam/
Miami NWS Discussion

A lot going on...

FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARD MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE GULF LOW. THE GFS DEPICTS A SPLITTING OF THE 700
MB LOW WITH THE NEW LOW SURGING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH
IT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THESE LATER PERIODS WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. LONG STORY SHORT...IT WILL BE A VERY RAINY
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE ONLY
QUESTION IS THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
That is one of the heaviest rain potentials I have seen in long time. It keeps most of it off the West coast of Florida. Any slight shift east could bring more rain than forecast. Depending on the dominant center.

Corpus Christi - First I've heard of latent heat bundles. But it is some explanation. :)

RIDGE THEN EXPECTED TO
BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE INTO THE WEST GULF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PAN OUT LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING FROM LATENT HEAT
BUNDLING ISSUES
WITH PIECES OF ENERGY BREAKING OFF ACROSS THE GULF.
ECMWF LOOKS MORE REALISTIC WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARDS S TX. MAIN VARIABLE WILL BE HOW STRONG
MENTIONED RIDGE BECOMES AND IF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS DEEP S TX OR IF MOISTURE CAN INFILTRATE OUR AREA.


Good morning, shear is quite low in the w/nw Caribbean
Quoting stormpetrol:


Good morning, shear is quite low in the w/nw Caribbean

hey stormpetrol what you think I say that the circulation is or will reform or relocate near 16N 82W
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Discussion

A lot going on...

FROM THIS WEEKEND ONWARD MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE GULF LOW. THE GFS DEPICTS A SPLITTING OF THE 700
MB LOW WITH THE NEW LOW SURGING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COAST TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS WITH
IT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THIS FEATURE MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THESE LATER PERIODS WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. LONG STORY SHORT...IT WILL BE A VERY RAINY
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE ONLY
QUESTION IS THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL.


Don't forget to wear your rubbers today, Geoff. Looks like a wet one.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hey stormpetrol what you think I say that the circulation is or will reform or relocate near 16N 82W


I really can't pick out a circulation this morning at all, the closest thing I see to a circulation is between Grand Cayman and the west tip Jamaica.
Quoting stormpetrol:


I really can't pick out a circulation this morning at all, the closest thing I see to a circulation is between Grand Cayman and the west tip Jamaica.

that is kninda why I am waiting for the vis and rgb sat loop to come forth
Quoting stormpetrol:


I really can't pick out a circulation this morning at all, the closest thing I see to a circulation is between Grand Cayman and the west tip Jamaica.


Ah so it isn't just me. :)
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
720 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, COMBINED WITH A LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON, WILL LEAD
TO A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY THE MIAMI-DADE COAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BEGINNING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS CONTINUE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO AN INCOMING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THE HEAVY RAIN RISK COULD EVEN CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

Morning all. It's starting to look a bit cloudy here. Hopefully the rain won't be extra disgusting.
Interesting setup.

Quoting stormpetrol:


I really can't pick out a circulation this morning at all, the closest thing I see to a circulation is between Grand Cayman and the west tip Jamaica.


The only real low is located below. However, you should see multiple lows developing in the entire region in the next few days. The entire area is just a broad area of low pressure for now.



800 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOT IA IS PRODUCING A LIMITED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS
AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRETCHING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Interesting setup.



Hey, Baha. We posted the same thing at the same time.
Quoting Grothar:


The only real low is located below. However, you should see multiple lows developing in the entire region in the next few days. The entire area is just a broad area of low pressure for now.




that is not the true low
CMC

looks like it still seeing two lows..one forming off the SE coast and one in the GOM



the Euro takes the energy and takes it west as the CMC but dosent develop it as strong


Quoting ilovehurricanes12:
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOT IA IS PRODUCING A LIMITED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS
AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA STRETCHING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


nothing new there
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

that is not the true low


Based on what?
the Euro goes west with one low and puts the multiple lows further inland while the GFS goes east with multiple lows in the GOM--I dont know..the models are going to have a tough time especially trying to find a center of circulation if you have multiple centers..






Quoting Grothar:


Based on what?

ok I will tell you but you have to give me a few hours


nada here
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok I will tell you but you have to give me a few hours


We could all be flooded by that time. I want to see it now. :) Where do you think the low is?
Quoting LargoFl:
Key West rain chances
60% today 70% tonight 80% heavy rain tomorrow. there's already heavy rain just to the south of us
Link

The only "spin" I see is around 18/80
Quoting Grothar:


We could all be flooded by that time. I want to see it now. :) Where do you think the low is?

right I think is is somewhere areound the area of 16N 82W but the data I need is still coming in and it will take a few hours


Magnitude
5.2
Date-Time
Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 10:53:29 UTC
Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 08:53:29 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
38.244%uFFFDS, 146.194%uFFFDE
Depth
9.9 km (6.2 miles)
Region
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA
Distances
10 km (6 miles) SW of Moe, Australia
18 km (11 miles) W of Morwell, Australia
30 km (18 miles) WSW of Traralgon, Australia
78 km (48 miles) WSW of Sale, Australia

The Coles in Warragul, Victoria, after the earthquake tonight, which was 5.5 magnitude.
Quoting KeyWestwx:
Key West rain chances
60% today 70% tonight 80% heavy rain tomorrow. there's already heavy rain just to the south of us
HA spoke to soon. I just looked out the window. It's 100 chance of rain right now ;)
Good morning everybody. It is 77 degrees here at Madeira Beach with 79% humidity and an 16 MPH east wind. We don't mind some rain here but we are at a very low elevation so no floods please! :)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
340 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER REGIME IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE BEING TEMPERATURES...THAT IS INCREASING DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE
THE GULF COAST REGION DURING AT THE LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DERIVED FROM SATELLITE DATA
INDICATE DRIER AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN MOST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
MAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK TO BE DRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH REGARD TO A TROUGH
IN THE CARIBBEAN THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF DURING
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS
SOLUTION IS FARTHER NORTH AND FORECASTS LESS IN THE WAY OF RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF
DURING THAT PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES A
SURFACE LOW WESTWARD ON A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE. ALTHOUGH BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SOUTH OF THE AREA...A MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION AS INDICATED
BY THE GFS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD...AS WELL AS HOLD DOWN
TEMPERATURES A BIT. AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN TO KEEP A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE...MAINLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

Another way of saying "there is some uncertainty with

the forecast...."
Good Morning Folks. That 10% disturbance South of Cuba continues to persist but sheer remains very high just to the North of it. Given the sheer and the pending slow drift over the Island, not surprised that NHC does not have much faith on it at the moment.

This looks like the disturbance the CMC developed a few days ago as a tropical storm coming out of the Bahamas and skirting up the Eastern Coast but I have not checked the models this morning yet.

I am not holding my breath on development of this one in the short-term but who knows what could happen if it is able to persist and keep up the convection as it crosses over towards the Bahamas but sheer would have to really drop for it to have any chance of development at that point.

Here is the CIMSS sheer map for this am:

Link
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

The only "spin" I see is around 18/80


On there it looks like maybe 18/85 to me? But I ust can't tell.
Quoting stormpetrol:


nada here


broad low centered over E. Honduras ...
19/0232 UTC 31.1N 133.3E EXTRATROPICAL GUCHOL -- West Pacific
Quoting stormpetrol:


Good morning, shear is quite low in the w/nw Caribbean


Good Mourning Everyone, we now have a yellow circle on the W caribbean disturbance. Shear is starting to rapidly decrease over the system as the ULL moves further north and is replace by a nice developing upper ridge. Here in south Florida we better watch this.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ah so it isn't just me. :)


Nah..it's me too...I must percolate before I circulate...lol
Quoting muddertracker:


Nah..it's me too...I must percolate before I circulate...lol


lol :)
Quoting muddertracker:


Nah..it's me too...I must percolate before I circulate...lol

What?
Quoting KeyWestwx:
Key West rain chances
60% today 70% tonight 80% heavy rain tomorrow. there's already heavy rain just to the south of us
YES I SEE THAT, LOTS OF RAIN FOR YOU GUYS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, STAY SAFE AND HEED THE WARNINGS OK
I think 95L just loose it chances of becoming name.
I put out a new detailed Atlantic discussion on my blog this morning...with thoughts on how this western Caribbean feature could evolve. This is a tough one to predict...we'll see....
Quoting LargoFl:
YES I SEE THAT, LOTS OF RAIN FOR YOU GUYS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, STAY SAFE AND HEED THE WARNINGS OK


Quoting allancalderini:
I think 95L just loose it chances of becoming name.




nop 95L has in tell tonight
Quoting AtHomeInTX:

This too has the center moving towards the TX/MX border...that is my best guess on where its headed this morning....
Not much in the way of change for 95L...

AL, 95, 2012061912, , BEST, 0, 394N, 584W, 40, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 40, 1016, 220, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I put out a new detailed Atlantic discussion on my blog this morning...with thoughts on how this western Caribbean feature could evolve. This is a tough one to predict...we'll see....


Good job! :)
Quoting muddertracker:


Nah..it's me too...I must percolate before I circulate...lol

What?
Guchol made landfall near Nanki-Shirahama in Kansai prefecture not so long ago. Widespread tropical storm force wind gusts are occurring near and to the east of the center (including metropolitan Tokyo), with hurricane force wind gusts occurring at Shizuoka (despite Guchol only being a tropical storm now). The worst is yet to come for Tokyo.

Full analysis on my blog.

Ok I think I see the weak low around 15.5N/83.5W
I think 100 degree temps will be around awhile in Central Texas unfortunately, i think humidity will drop and temps will go up, hope I am wrong.

THE UPPER LOW OVER NE MEXICO WILL MOVE
WEST AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE MID
WEST/N TX REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND ON INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AND LIKELY AT OR NEAR 100 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. S CENTRAL TX
WILL BE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT ANY EASTERLY
WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH AND HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
FOR OUR AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH SILENT 5-10 PERCENT POPS AFTER
THURSDAY.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

This too has the center moving towards the TX/MX border...that is my best guess on where its headed this morning....


Hey man, with a nice upper ridge developing on top of it could spin up like how Alex did a couple years back also there is going to be a blocking high over the Central US thus a trough will seperate the bermuda high leaving an opening over Florida so once its in the gulf it think it might affect Florida.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Ok I think I see the weak low around 15.5N/83.5W

I think I can see what you are looking at and it is moving ENE-NE

but still the the center of the circulation is just ENE of that
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS. ONE IS CENTERED
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N98W COVERING THE W GULF AND THE
SECOND COVERING THE E GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N87W. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA OVER THE SE GULF TO
NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 88W.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 90W AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE NE GULF REMAINS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
INTO THE SE GULF WED AS AN ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE S
CENTRAL GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU THEN DRIFT NW TO
NEAR 24N93W BY LATE SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE E GULF.

8 AM EDT TROPICAL DISCUSSION
Quoting AussieStorm:


Magnitude
5.2
Date-Time
Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 10:53:29 UTC
Tuesday, June 19, 2012 at 08:53:29 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
38.244%uFFFDS, 146.194%uFFFDE
Depth
9.9 km (6.2 miles)
Region
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA
Distances
10 km (6 miles) SW of Moe, Australia
18 km (11 miles) W of Morwell, Australia
30 km (18 miles) WSW of Traralgon, Australia
78 km (48 miles) WSW of Sale, Australia

The Coles in Warragul, Victoria, after the earthquake tonight, which was 5.5 magnitude.


What the...earthquakes aren't common in south austrailia.. Wasn't the biggest one to happen a 5.7 or something near that?
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I think 100 degree temps will be around awhile in Central Texas unfortunately, i think humidity will drop and temps will go up, hope I am wrong.
South Texas gets a break next week, though most of flyover country gets the short end of the stick:

hot
Quoting Neapolitan:
South Texas gets a break next week, though most of flyover country gets the short end of the stick:

hot

Short end of the stick. It's called summer.
Quoting Neapolitan:
South Texas gets a break next week, though most of flyover country gets the short end of the stick:

hot
I think that may be Wrong, our forecast is Clear and in the 100's starting this weekend thru next week. The only way my area will be below 100 is if something tropical moves in. High Pressure is moving in this weekend and checking every NWS site from Dallas to South Central Texas is saying highs 100 to 105.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I think that may be Wrong, our forecast is Clear and in the 100's starting this weekend thru next week. The only way my area will be below 100 is if something tropical moves in. High Pressure is moving in this weekend and checking every NWS site from Dallas to South Central Texas is saying highs 100 to 105.

I believe that's the 6-10 day outlook, so those temps aren't valid until next week.
Quoting NakedSwirl:

Short end of the stick. It's called summer.
Yes. Though to be more precise, "abnormally warm summer" is the term one should use, since that's what all the oranges and reds mean.
Quoting Articuno:


What the...earthquakes aren't common in south austrailia.. Wasn't the biggest one to happen a 5.7 or something near that?
6.5 was the largest ion record in SA. But 5.2--if it stands--is the largest there in at least 20 years or so. Quakes there aren't as common as many other places, obviously, but they do happen:

quake
lilElla. How's the weather in southern Wisconsin? Hot I assume?

How's the donkey?
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE GULF IS DOOMINATED BY A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS.

: )
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I think I can see what you are looking at and it is moving ENE-NE

but still the the center of the circulation is just ENE of that


Looks like the tstorms are displace
Quoting LargoFl:
YES I SEE THAT, LOTS OF RAIN FOR YOU GUYS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, STAY SAFE AND HEED THE WARNINGS OK
It's pouring now
Deep moisture will be moving northward from the Caribbean and into South Florida tonight-Wed. This could result in localized heavy rains along the SE coast tonight and area wide on Wednesday.
Good morning everyone. In Key West this morning it is dark with light rain showers. I am hoping for more rain today. In anticipation of the rain, I have planted some cuttings in my yard hoping they will root. Of course, the downside is that this is the first day I plan on taking water aerobics, after a month of recovering from a fractured knee. I need the exercise to build up my back muscles. But with this rain, and possible lightning, I would give my chances of the class occurring at 50%. A tad higher than our rain chances at the moment. We exercise in the rain, but once the lightning starts, all bets are off!
Have a good day everyone.
Seems to me that where the earth is in relation to the sun, along with the solar flairs, etc. coming our way will have a lot to do with the climate, earthquakes, hurricanes, I could go on and on
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
Seems to me that where the earth is in relation to the sun, along with the solar flairs, etc. coming our way will have a lot to do with the climate, earthquakes, hurricanes, I could go on and on

So greenhouse gases not playing a role?
Good Morning. I see neither 95L nor 95E have developed.

Good morning

The NW Caribbean is very disorganized and very little is going on at the surface at this time. The area of low pressure associated with the trough is broad and weak and the rotation seen in satellite images, such as it is, is located near 18 N and 85W generally heading towards the Yucatan channel. I suspect that this feature is not really a surface feature but at the 850 mb level which ties in with the vorticity map .

This Ramsdis loop shows the area I am referring to
Oh yeah... This is sooo not Subtropical...



NHC playing games again.
Quoting Tazmanian:
I got 107,000 comments

Now its 107776???
O_o
Good morning all
I personally thought 95L lost it's chances last night but if this new burst over the center persists, we may get a re-number... Or the storm is too far north for the NHC to do anything.
Quoting reedzone:
I personally thought 95L lost it's chances last night but if this new burst over the center persists, we may get a re-number... Or the storm is too far north for the NHC to do anything.

Who cares
Sigh. Stupid ridges.

Quoting reedzone:
I personally thought 95L lost it's chances last night but if this new burst over the center persists, we may get a re-number... Or the storm is too far north for the NHC to do anything.
If 95L where to go TS would it be one of the furthest north one to do so?
This is Subtropical, just needs persistence in convection.

Visible


Rainbow IR

723...who knows about the greenhouse gases...I just think that where the earth is in relation to the sun is what is causing some, if not all of the current weather patterns...



With convergence this good, the aoi in the carib should have no problem firing up convection. Should be enough to cope with shear present..



Even so shear is still decreasing.


Vort is displaced from the convection.



If anything its going to be a squally day here in Cayman.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Sigh. Stupid ridges.



Yeah this pretty much explains it. A ridge over TX and one over Bermuda with a trough over the SE US.

Quoting ajcamsmom2:
723...who knows about the greenhouse gases...I just think that where the earth is in relation to the sun is what is causing some, if not all of the current weather patterns...

I agree. Was just playing devils advocate. The Earth does have a higher frequency of wild patterns when it comes closer to the sun. I personally happen to agree with that. Plus there is SO MUCH that we don't know about the sun already.
ALERT ATCF MIL 95X XXX 120618180000
2012061818
37.5 298.2
39.5 302.3
100
38.0 298.7
190100
1206190100
1
WTNT21 KNGU 190100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 37.5N 61.8W TO 39.5N 57.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 TO 45 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 190100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 38.0N 61.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE WINDS AROUND THE LOW HAVE BECOME TIGHTER AROUND THE
CENTER BUT THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS DEEP CONVECTION. AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IT WOULD TAKE ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200100Z.//
9512061700 288N 688W 25
9512061706 292N 671W 25
9512061712 304N 653W 30
9512061718 317N 640W 30
9512061800 334N 635W 30
9512061806 353N 625W 40
9512061812 368N 619W 40
9512061818 380N 613W 40

Quoting NakedSwirl:

The Earth does have a higher frequency of wild patterns when it comes closer to the sun. I personally happen to agree with that


Uh, what? Has there been some statistically significant difference between weather extremes in Nov-Feb vs. May-Aug found that scientists are unaware of?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ALERT ATCF MIL 95X XXX 120618180000
2012061818
37.5 298.2
39.5 302.3
100
38.0 298.7
190100
1206190100
1
WTNT21 KNGU 190100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 37.5N 61.8W TO 39.5N 57.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 TO 45 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 190100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 38.0N 61.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE WINDS AROUND THE LOW HAVE BECOME TIGHTER AROUND THE
CENTER BUT THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS DEEP CONVECTION. AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IT WOULD TAKE ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200100Z.//
9512061700 288N 688W 25
9512061706 292N 671W 25
9512061712 304N 653W 30
9512061718 317N 640W 30
9512061800 334N 635W 30
9512061806 353N 625W 40
9512061812 368N 619W 40
9512061818 380N 613W 40



Last shot, lets see if it can pull it off.. Just needs a bit more deeper convection then it has now.
ALERT ATCF MIL 95E JUN 120618182300
2012061818
17.2 252.1
-999.9-999.9
175
17.1 252.4
182300
1206182300
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED //
WTPN21 PGTW 182300 COR
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190000Z JUN 12//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 190000)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 175 NM RADIUS OF 17.2N 107.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 107.6W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 192300Z.
//
NNNN

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Uh, what? Has there been some statistically significant difference between weather extremes in Nov-Feb vs. May-Aug found that scientists are unaware of?

We don't know that yet. I see a strong correlation between the Earth and the Sun.
Quoting NakedSwirl:

What?


Oh...it means I have to make and drink coffee before my eyes work well enough to detect spin.
Good morning.
Quoting Articuno:


What the...earthquakes aren't common in south austrailia.. Wasn't the biggest one to happen a 5.7 or something near that?

The quake was 112km SW of Melbourne near Moe. This is the largest quake in 109yrs for Victoria.
Quoting muddertracker:


Oh...it means I have to make and drink coffee before my eyes work well enough to detect spin.

I see. Well then that applies to me too. :)
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

The NW Caribbean is very disorganized and very little is going on at the surface at this time. The area of low pressure associated with the trough is broad and weak and the rotation seen in satellite images, such as it is, is located near 18 N and 85W generally heading towards the Yucatan channel. I suspect that this feature is not really a surface feature but at the 850 mb level which ties in with the vorticity map .

This Ramsdis loop shows the area I am referring to

I was just looking at that floater there is nothing at 18N 85W
however I think I see the center around 16N 82W
The below is NWS JAX and pretty much sums it up.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WELL SOME SORT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE LINGERING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO START THIS PERIOD AND THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN BOTH SUGGEST THAT AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO OUR AREA AND SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN...INDICATING IN FACT THAT IT WILL BE A HOT AND DRY WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS ONE OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND THUS LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE...WHICH MEANS THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WITH TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S AND PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE.

Quoting NakedSwirl:

We don't know that yet. I see a strong correlation between the Earth and the Sun.


If you don't know it, then you don't see it. Those statements are contradictory. If you find evidence that there is a difference in extreme weather (as measured by an objective source, like the climate extremes index) between aphelion and perihelion, please let us know. Until then, you do not have evidence to such a claim.
Total solar irradiance incident at the earth's atmosphere is down, temperatures are up, extreme weather is up. So far your hypothesis' correlation is weak...




Subtropical Storm Chris at 5PM if it keeps this up!

And if it doesn't get a renumber now, it should in postseason similar to the unnamed storm of last year.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
..looking at the pic here, looks like everything is moving towards miami and the east coast of florida right now
Quoting reedzone:


Last shot, lets see if it can pull it off.. Just needs a bit more deeper convection then it has now.
Agree its today or never.
Quoting gator23:
The below is NWS JAX and pretty much sums it up.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WELL SOME SORT OF TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD BE LINGERING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO START THIS PERIOD AND THIS IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN BOTH SUGGEST THAT AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH INTO OUR AREA AND SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN...INDICATING IN FACT THAT IT WILL BE A HOT AND DRY WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS AND EXPANDS FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS ONE OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND THUS LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE...WHICH MEANS THE FORECAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW CLOSELY TO THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION WITH TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S AND PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE.



GFS for several runs has been showing 10" to 20" of rain over the next 7 days across western & southwestern FL. This could be a FAY type flooding event setting up over FL.

This upper low in the C Gulf is what is going to pull this monsoon trough over FL.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


GFS for several runs has been showing 10" to 20" of rain over the next 7 days across western & southwestern FL. This could be a FAY type flooding event setting up over FL.

does that include the Tampa bay area as well?
Quoting NakedSwirl:

I disagree. There is much to know about the sun that we simply don't know yet. It's a very strong hypothesis recognized scientifically worldwide. Rather, it is unscientific for you to state indefinitely that there is no correlation between Earth's climate and our Sun.
You can feel free to disagree with Scott, but you should know that about 20,000 solar physicists and climatologists disagree with you. However, if you can direct us to the online archive holding your published articles regarding this matter, we'd love to read them. We can be persuaded... ;-)
751...as I recall, the earth has been hit with a few solar flairs over the past year...
Quoting LargoFl:
does that include the Tampa bay area as well?


Yes! No way Tampa can miss this. People near the Manatee River better have an evacuation plan in place as it will likely be used this weekend.
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
751...as I recall, the earth has been hit with a few solar flairs over the past year...
one hit us the other day, had the internet messed up for awhile
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yes! No way Tampa can miss this. People near the Manatee River better have an evacuation plan in place as it will likely be used this weekend.
I'd like to see our local mets jump on this, only hearing increased rain chances ..10 inches would make things interesting around here, dont think..unless it stalls right near us..that Tampa will see 20 inches, but Miami and south florida may.
I don't think people are really grasping the magnitude of this rain event for FL. Whether we get a named system or not out of this is irrelivant as the biggest threat will be rainfall as a monsoon trough moves in and stops over FL for atleast a week. Also the interaction of the monsoon trough and a upper a trough over the weekend is going to cause a pretty serious rain event as convection is going to be widespread once this occurs on Saturday.



OK...Taking the family to Panama City Beach...will be there Saturday thru the 30th....are we going to be washed out and when? Most of what I see shows the rain staying south
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ALERT ATCF MIL 95X XXX 120618180000
2012061818
37.5 298.2
39.5 302.3
100
38.0 298.7
190100
1206190100
1
WTNT21 KNGU 190100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 37.5N 61.8W TO 39.5N 57.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 TO 45 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 190100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 38.0N 61.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE WINDS AROUND THE LOW HAVE BECOME TIGHTER AROUND THE
CENTER BUT THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS DEEP CONVECTION. AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IT WOULD TAKE ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200100Z.//
9512061700 288N 688W 25
9512061706 292N 671W 25
9512061712 304N 653W 30
9512061718 317N 640W 30
9512061800 334N 635W 30
9512061806 353N 625W 40
9512061812 368N 619W 40
9512061818 380N 613W 40



Is that for 95L
No ATCF upgrade for neither 95L or 95E
Quoting StormPro:
OK...Taking the family to Panama City Beach...will be there Saturday thru the 30th....are we going to be washed out and when? Most of what I see shows the rain staying south
pay attention to the weather the next few days, by thursday things will be confirmed about whats happening down south of us
look like they open up low into trough which I think is a good idea untill the low level circulation develop properly
I think it will develop around 16N 82W between the two blobs of convection one near me and the other off of E Hon coast
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Is that for 95L
No ATCF upgrade for neither 95L or 95E
see traveling East by NORTHEAST..sure looks like miami and east florida where the gulf stream rides up the east coast
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Is that for 95L
No ATCF upgrade for neither 95L or 95E

95L.
Quoting WxGeekVA:




Subtropical Storm Chris at 5PM if it keeps this up!

And if it doesn't get a renumber now, it should in postseason similar to the unnamed storm of last year.

If it can hold it together for another 8 hours, it has a good shot - but it will be shredded 12-24 hours after that. The pop of convection we're seeing right now is encouraging, although I would prefer to see more flaring up around the center. Most of the LLC is exposed, which isn't good, especially as the system is in a low-shear environment.

IMO, considering the system's location, current state, and near-term prognosis, I wouldn't name it, since even if it was named, it is unlikely to last more than 24 hours as a fully tropical or subtropical entity before transitioning to extratropical.
Quoting LargoFl:
see traveling East by NORTHEAST..sure looks like miami and east florida where the gulf stream rides up the east coast


I didn't see that
Quoting StormPro:
OK...Taking the family to Panama City Beach...will be there Saturday thru the 30th....are we going to be washed out and when? Most of what I see shows the rain staying south

My weather forecasting dartboard says no. But when I throw a few more darts, it says yes.

For the near-term, it is iffy, for the end of your trip, who knows. Best advice is to keep on checking back (download the WU app for your smartphone, if you have one).
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Is that for 95L
No ATCF upgrade for neither 95L or 95E
Maybe red circle again at 2pm update?
Quoting jeffs713:

If it can hold it together for another 8 hours, it has a good shot - but it will be shredded 12-24 hours after that. The pop of convection we're seeing right now is encouraging, although I would prefer to see more flaring up around the center. Most of the LLC is exposed, which isn't good, especially as the system is in a low-shear environment.

IMO, considering the system's location, current state, and near-term prognosis, I wouldn't name it, since even if it was named, it is unlikely to last more than 24 hours as a fully tropical or subtropical entity before transitioning to extratropical.

When did considering how long it would last become part of naming it?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

When did considering how long it would last be part of naming it?

Since I said it should be. ;)

The system is incredibly marginal, a person could really make a case either way.
Quoting allancalderini:
Maybe red circle again at 2pm update?


shear is down, warmer waters...then yeah but is its last shot
NOW what is the NHC waiting on?.


come on doggie, you can do it... just hold on to that don't drop it
Quoting Neapolitan:
You can feel free to disagree with Scott, but you should know that about 20,000 solar physicists and climatologists disagree with you. However, if you can direct us to the online archive holding your published articles regarding this matter, we'd love to read them. We can be persuaded... ;-)


But seriously, it's not a matter of agreeing or disagreeing. It's a completely wild idea that somehow the earth is surging toward the sun, and this decreased earth-sun distance is causing our "wild weather" because of a previously-observed "correlation."

This can be seen as utter silliness from many different ways. But for starters, what data from any source indicates that we are getting closer to the sun? And if we even were, it would have to drawf our orbital eccentricity that has a ~3-4% difference in earth-sun difference, which has been estimated to cause a ~6-7% difference in total solar irradiance incident at the top of atmosphere. For his hypothesis to even be remotely true or even begin to have something as far as "correlation" to create a hypothesis to begin with, there would have to be a significant correlation between extreme weather events and the time of year. There is no evidence provided that such a correlation exists. "We don't know that yet" is not evidence.
Quoting washingtonian115:
NOW what is the NHC waiting on?.
\

just like for 92 early in the season
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I didn't see that
95L
Quoting StormPro:
OK...Taking the family to Panama City Beach...will be there Saturday thru the 30th....are we going to be washed out and when? Most of what I see shows the rain staying south
..HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
505 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

GMZ630-650-655-670-675-201015-
MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
505 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE SURF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE
AREA DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
Quoting jeffs713:

My weather forecasting dartboard says no. But when I throw a few more darts, it says yes.

For the near-term, it is iffy, for the end of your trip, who knows. Best advice is to keep on checking back (download the WU app for your smartphone, if you have one).


Is there an app for droids as well?
I'm having a hard time trying to find any reasons to say that the Caribbean disturbance won't develop. It's entering the Gulf of Mexico, where Sea Surface Temperatures are 1C above normal for this time of the year. Wind shear is expected to be very low thanks to an anticyclone, and there is no Texas death ridge to kill it with dry air.

The only downside I can find is its monsoonal nature.
No recon for any basin for the next two days.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 191315
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-032

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
\

just like for 92 early in the season
If this was in Beryl's location it would have been named a long time ago.

TWXA13 their may be some competing lows that could inhabit development.
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

FLZ076>078-192200-
/O.NEW.KKEY.CF.S.0001.120619T1320Z-120620T1800Z/
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
920 AM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDES TODAY AND TOMORROW...

THE COMBINATION OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW MOON
...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS...AND THE HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN...WILL
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MINOR STREET FLOODING OF A FEW INCHES DEPTH IS EXPECTED
OVER THE LOWEST ELEVATION STREETS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

AT KEY WEST HARBOR...WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 2.7
FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE...WHICH OCCURS
AT 1007 AM.

AT VACA CUT...THE HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 138 PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
AT 512 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL...THE HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AT 923 AM THIS
MORNING...AND AGAIN 1000 PM THIS EVENING.

PLEASE REPORT COASTAL FLOODING TO YOUR FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE. DIAL 305-295-1316 EXTENSION 3.

ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
Quoting washingtonian115:
If this was in Beryl's location it would have been named a long time ago.


yeah.... is Knabb sleeping still..? I mean, it's 10:20 AM here in NYC same as there
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Uh, what? Has there been some statistically significant difference between weather extremes in Nov-Feb vs. May-Aug found that scientists are unaware of?


Maybe not between those two dates, but things like social media, iPhones, Blackberry's, You Tube, Twitter, etc, this is the reason for an increased frequency of this so called "extreme weather" just all of sudden being realized. As I said before, every single weather event is now documented as population continues to increase. Weather spotters are everywhere and personal weather stations are recording every local weather event. It's a lot different today than 50 years ago.
So mostly rip current advisories for now...I get it...keep watching ...Thanks all!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm having a hard time trying to find any reasons to say that the Caribbean disturbance won't develop. It's entering the Gulf of Mexico, where Sea Surface Temperatures are 1C above normal for this time of the year. Wind shear is expected to be very low thanks to an anticyclone, and there is no Texas death ridge to kill it with dry air.

The only downside I can find is its monsoonal nature.


There will be a ridge over TX though. Just not the Death ridge as last year. It almost as if the moisture is going to get trapped over FL and the SE US and just set for several days as it interacts with a upper trough.
Evacuations?

Really.

I mean really?
TCFA CRITERIA LIST
APRIL 2007
POINT VALUE

ITEM

SFC ANALYSIS

3
A Circulation is evident using VIS/shortwave I/R, microwave imagery or QUIKSCAT/WINDSAT ambiguities

5
A Circulation has been evident for 24 hours

5
*see note below
*Westerly SFC/Gradient level wind of at least 5 kts, is south
of the tropical disturbance and within 200 n mi of the center.

2
Any wind associated with cloud system center is at least 20 kts

3
Any wind associated with cloud system center is at least 25 kts

4
Any wind associated with cloud system center is at least 30 kts

3
24 hour pressure decrease at nearby station (within 200 n mi) equals 2 MB

4
24 hour pressure decrease at nearby station (within 200 n mi) equals 3 MB

3
Estimated MSLP of disturbance is 1010 to 1009 mb

4
Estimated MSLP of disturbance is 1008 MB or less
-----

500 MB

2
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough

4
There is evidence of a closed circulation
-----

200 MB

-4
westerly flow of 15 kts or greater over disturbance

4
Evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the center of the tropical disturbance.

3
Easterly flow of 20 kts or less over disturbance
------

SST

3
SST 26 C or higher
------

SATELLITE
INTERPRETATION

3
The tropical disturbance has persisted for at least 24 hours.

4
The tropical disturbance has persisted for at least 48 hours

5
The tropical disturbance has persisted for at least 72 hours

3
DVORAK classification ranging from T 1.0 to T 1.5 from all 3 agencies (TAFB, SAB, KGWC)

5
DVORAK classification ranging from T 1.5 to T 2.0 from all 3 agencies

-2
DVORAK final T number from 2 or more agencies have decreased by T 0.5 to T 1.0
-----

MISCELLANEOUS

3
Cloud system center is north of 5 degrees latitude.

3
Tropical disturbance is within 72 hours of a DOD resource.

2
Cloud system center and satellite fix are consistent in location (within 2 degrees)
-----

ADD UP THE POINTS.
1.) If value is 35 to 38, TCFA may be required depending on Dvorak trends (ie, MET T-# and 24 hr change).
2.) If value is 39 or > , a TCFA should be issued.

----------
Based on this scoring, I come up with a score of 28, which is below the TCFA criteria.

(I gave points for:
3 - circulation
5 - more than 24hr circulation
5 - westerly wind at surface
3 - >25kt wind present at surface
4 - closed circulation
3 - circulation present >24hr
3 - north of 5N
2 - cloud system fix and satellite fix w/in 2 degrees)

So basically... it makes sense the NHC isn't tagging it.
Quoting pensacolastorm:


Is there an app for droids as well?
Yes, it is actually pretty good, too.
....................................they got Florida like a candy cane
Quoting Chucktown:


Maybe not between those two dates, but things like social media, iPhones, Blackberry's, You Tube, Twitter, etc, this is the reason for an increased frequency of this so called "extreme weather" just all of sudden being realized. As I said before, every single weather event is now documented as population continues to increase. Weather spotters are everywhere and personal weather stations are recording every local weather event. It's a lot different today than 50 years ago.


...which is why if you read further, I suggested using an objective measure of extreme weather, such as the Climate Extremes Index. Such a measure has nothing to do with people's social media habits, nor population density.

Using anecdotal evidence from such social media outlets would be almost as unscientific as one person's supposed anecdotal "correlation."
wow lol!!:)
Quoting LargoFl:
....................................they got Florida like a candy cane
Of course the post I spent entirely too long formatting was #800, which means many won't see it. :(
Jeff stop being a DOWNCASTER :).
Quoting LargoFl:
....................................they got Florida like a candy cane


funny
Quoting washingtonian115:
Jeff stop being a DOWNCASTER :).
LOL. Hey... I'm not always downcasting. I did say it has a chance, but it is a fleeting chance. I think the wave thingy in the W. Caribbean has a better shot now, though.

(and even if I am a downcaster, at least I back up what I say with data, and admit when I'm wrong, like I was with Beryl)
Quoting StormTracker2K:


There will be a ridge over TX though. Just not the Death ridge as last year. It almost as if the moisture is going to get trapped over FL and the SE US and just set for several days as it interacts with a upper trough.


And that ridge should push the storm (if it develops) into Southern Texas or Northern Mexico.
Since Knabb is napping still so is the NHC and the ATCF is not upgrading anything so no TD 4E nor TS or STS Chris for 11 AM
Here is a good camera of the nuclear site with Guchol bearing down.
Link
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS. ONE IS CENTERED
INLAND OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N98W COVERING THE W GULF AND THE
SECOND COVERING THE E GULF CENTERED NEAR 26N87W. THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA OVER THE SE GULF TO
NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 88W.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W OF 90W AND IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE NE GULF REMAINS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
INTO THE SE GULF WED AS AN ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE S
CENTRAL GULF FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU THEN DRIFT NW TO
NEAR 24N93W BY LATE SAT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE E GULF
Quoting ScottLincoln:


...which is why if you read further, I suggested using an objective measure of extreme weather, such as the Climate Extremes Index. Such a measure has nothing to do with people's social media habits, nor population density.

Using anecdotal evidence from such social media outlets would be almost as unscientific as one person's supposed anecdotal "correlation."


Everything in life isn't always driven by science or intelligent reasoning, sometimes its just common sense.
Quoting jeffs713:
LOL. Hey... I'm not always downcasting. I did say it has a chance, but it is a fleeting chance. I think the wave thingy in the W. Caribbean has a better shot now, though.

(and even if I am a downcaster, at least I back up what I say with data, and admit when I'm wrong, like I was with Beryl)
It could get a renumber later this afternoon through tonight.It has a nice burst of convection near the center.
Quoting washingtonian115:
It could get a renumber later this afternoon through tonight.It has a nice burst of convection neat the center.

Yep, hence why I said it has a chance. It is a pretty narrow window to hit, but just based on its current presentation and history, I'd say its 50/50.
Though SST are not any higher in general throughout the Atlantic, the Caribbean, or the Gulf of Mexico one this is very noticeably different from last year.


June 17th, 2011






June 17th, 2012



If they started advisories on TS Jose, they better start advisories on this thing or I'm going to be mad.
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND NEXT FEW DAYS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, COMBINED WITH A LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON, WILL LEAD
TO A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY THE MIAMI-DADE COAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BEGINNING TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS CONTINUE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY
DUE TO AN INCOMING SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THE HEAVY RAIN RISK COULD EVEN CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
Quoting Neapolitan:
You can feel free to disagree with Scott, but you should know that about 20,000 solar physicists and climatologists disagree with you. However, if you can direct us to the online archive holding your published articles regarding this matter, we'd love to read them. We can be persuaded... ;-)
hey Im coming to fla sunday want to visit your restaurant staying in naples will be there in for you a week bringing supplies. With
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
If they started advisories on TS Jose, they better start advisories on this thing or I'm going to be mad.
This blog won't let that Tropical Storm go will they? ;)
NHC hear our cries!!!.Lol.
Quoting Chucktown:


Everything in life isn't always driven by science or intelligent reasoning, sometimes its just common sense.



Wouldn't common sense be intelligent reasoning. If it's not than it would be common un-sense or just a happy accident.
Good God NHC just name the storm!! IR looks more impressive each frame....

NEWEST FRAMES!

Rainbow IR


Visible
Quoting cyclonekid:
This blog won't let that Tropical Storm go will they? ;)


We have long memories here. I still can't get over TS Bonnie going right over us in 2010. Sustained winds of up to 7 mph were measured, causing an empty milk container to fall out of my recycling bin. Plus, my driveway got slightly wet!
It matters not when or If the NHC names a system..esp one thats only a threat to Shipping lanes at best.


Re-lax..have a Fresca.


Life is short.
Quoting reedzone:
Good God NHC just name the storm!! IR looks more impressive each frame....

NEWEST FRAMES!

Rainbow IR


Visible
Oh come on NHC just upgrade it please.
Quoting DookiePBC:


We have long memories here. I still can't get over TS Bonnie going right over us in 2010. Sustained winds of up to 7 mph were measured, causing an empty milk container to fall out of my recycling bin. Plus, my driveway got slightly wet!
Lol really?
Quoting LargoFl:
....................................they got Florida like a candy cane


Here it comes Largo!
Quoting DookiePBC:


We have long memories here. I still can't get over TS Bonnie going right over us in 2010. Sustained winds of up to 7 mph were measured, causing an empty milk container to fall out of my recycling bin. Plus, my driveway got slightly wet!
Sustained winds of 7mph?.I've had winds stronger than that just last week blowing hear.
Seems Doc may be on Vacation, so expect NO development.

If Angela pops us a new Entry, then we know.
Just keep it going...

Quoting Patrap:
Seems Doc may be on Vacation, so expect NO development.

If Angela pops us a new Entry, then we know.

You've got that backwards...We're all doomed when Dr. Masters goes on vacation.
See Patrap is smart enough not to use the F word when describing a mid Atlantic storm.
Quoting Patrap:
Seems Doc may be on Vacation, so expect NO development.

If Angela pops us a new Entry, then we know.


I thought it was when the Doc's on vacation is when we get development?
836. Joe21
Good morning what is the latest update on the carribean
n system look at satelitte imgery it looks like the system and convection to the east.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I thought it was when the Doc's on vacation is when we get development?


Dat may be Fla thinking, but hey, watts new here?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I thought it was when the Doc's on vacation is when we get development?

It is.
Quoting Patrap:
It matters not when or If the NHC names a system..esp one thats only a threat to Shipping lanes at best.


Re-lax..have a Fresca.


Life is short.


Nice! Good Morning Pat!
<--- Still under coffee coma..will respond after I mo cup.

: )
Is the NHC just taking they're sweet time to decide or did the 11am update come out and Chris still isn't called?
Florida rules when it comes to weather catastrophes. As evidenced by our insurance premiums. So yes we are a bit paranoid done here weather wise and then some.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Here it comes Largo!
i dunno, local mets still have it at 40-50 percent chance..we'll see weds or thurs what it turns out to be, probably going to be like we had here a couple of weeks ago,if we get 5 inches im happy
Quoting gordydunnot:
Florida rules when it comes to weather catastrophes. As evidenced by our insurance premiums. So yes we are a bit paranoid done here weather wise and then some.
boy you got THAT right
Quoting Patrap:
It matters not when or If the NHC names a system..esp one thats only a threat to Shipping lanes at best.


Re-lax..have a Fresca.


Life is short.
I like Fresca!
Quoting Patrap:


Dat may be Fla thinking, but hey, watts new here?


Well, is it new here? Us Floridians might have to put that one to a vote..

But it would probably have to be recounted.
Quoting Patrap:
<--- Still under coffee coma..will respond after I mo cup.

: )
on my 4th cup lol
They are not upgrading the Epac 95E ?
Here is today's ENSO Update from the Aussies: Currently Neutral but still modelling towards El Nino at some point. For now, expect the sheer to continue to decrease in the Atlantic and Caribbean as usual this time of the year going into July and the start of the Cape Verde season in August.

Tropical Pacific warming continues
Issued on Tuesday 19 June | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Although climate indicators remain at neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) levels, the tropical Pacific continues to slowly warm. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this warming trend will continue over the coming months, with the majority of the models indicating the tropical Pacific will approach or possibly exceed El Niño thresholds by the end of winter. No climate models favour a return to La Niña during the remainder of 2012.

Large parts of eastern Australia are usually, but not always, drier than normal in winter and spring during El Niño events.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The Bureau’s climate model indicates a possibility of a weak positive IOD event developing during winter or spring.

Next update expected by 3 July 2012 | print version

12z Surface Analysis places the low just east of Belize.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Can South Florida see serious flooding from this rainfall event? I think the Keys may be hit very hard too.
How long has that burst of convection for 95L been around? If it has only been there for about 2-4 hours, I would wait for another few hours for the convection to persist, to make sure that it's not just a random burst.
Good one Cybrteddy at least we try to have a since of humor down here. If you don't your gonna have a short life expectancy here.
I'd keep a eye on the area around 17.5N,87.5W,sheers to high now,but as that area drifts north and stalls over central/eastern south GOM,sheer is forecast to be conducive in about 36-48hrs (in southern gom/nw carib),could then end up developing into a TD or weak TS and go into the west coast of fl or big bend area,other scenerio it goes west as the high builds over the plains,that would likely result in a hurricane headed towards tx/la,all depends on the strength,postion and timing of the forecast high presssure-my mini forecast
Moved to NEW BLOG