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Typhoon Fengshen one of the deadliest ever for the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:48 PM GMT on June 23, 2008

The year 2008 continues to be a year of the natural disaster, as the death toll from Typhoon Fengshen in the Philippines appears likely to exceed 900. At least 163 died when the Category 2 typhoon made landfall over the northern Philippines Saturday, and 807 people are missing from the ferry MV Princess of Stars, which sank during the typhoon. Only 38 survivors of the 845 people who were on the ship have been found. According to typhoon2000.com, Typhoon Fengshen will rank as at least the seventh deadliest Philippines typhoon since 1947, and may be the third deadliest by the time all the casualties are counted. The Philippines' deadliest typhoons were Typhoon Thelma of 1991 (5101 dead) and Typhoon Ike of 1984 (1363 dead).


Figure 1.Category 2 Typhoon Fengshen as it made landfall in the Philippine Islands on June 21, 2008. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Fengshen (the Mandarin Chinese name for the God of Wind), is the seventh named storm of the 2008 Western Pacific season, the the second to cause major loss of life. On May 17, Tropical Storm Halong made landfall on Luzon island in the Philippines. The storm caused 58 deaths and $94 million (USD) in damage, destroying 43,365 houses and damaging 188,830. All of last year's typhoons in the Western Pacific killed about 160 people, so the 2008 typhoon season is off to a very bad start. The City University of Hong Kong is predicting a slightly above average typhoon season in 2008, with 30 named storms and 19 typhoons. An average season has 27 named storms and 17 typhoons.

Tropical Atlantic
It's quiet in the Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

303. aquak9 7:48 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
re: 299

When Andrew hit, he was in the middle of having his home built 10 miles east of the coast,

had to have been pretty wet out there :)

***********

Actually since he was ten miles EAST of Naples, he stayed pretty dry as a matter of fact. Sorry about not making it more clear that it was SouthWest Florida. My bad.
Hong Kong Observatory

The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.

This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about
800 kilometres of Hong Kong may affect us.

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen (0806) with a central pressure 975 hectopascals was centred within 19.2N 116.3E and is forecast to move north or north-northwest at about 9 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 60 knots.
latest SOHO image of ol' sol...pretty quiet on the space weather front...

It's pretty quite on the home front, where did everyone go?
505. well, i guess after typhoon Feng Shui when POOF, there's not a whole lot to talk about......just back to incessant blob-watching!
i could post something about AGW...that would stir things up! LOL

but then i would be called a xenophobic paid-shill and a troll! LMAO!
hello out there
KOTG....wassup!?!?! ;)
510. 7544
yeap the local new in so fla did mention the rain for wends from it now we get the gulf rains coming this way and the catl rains and possible winds hmmm is this the set up for this season
i see you got the cool skull-pic back up...didn't you have something else for a while?
just chillin
no been using this one a while now
i used to use a hurricane symbol
HONG KONG OBSERVATORY

The Standby Signal, No. 1 remains in force.

This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about 800 kilometres of Hong Kong may affect us.

At 10 a.m. HKT, Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen was estimated to be about 330 kilometres south-southeast of Hong Kong (near 19.8 degrees north 115.8 degrees east) and is forecast to move north or north-northwest at about 14 kilometres per hour towards Guangdong.

According to the present forecast track of Fengshen, the chance of Strong Wind Signal No. 3 is not high during day time.

However, Fengshen will continue to edge closer to Hong Kong. As local winds gradually strengthen, the possibility of Strong Wind Signal No. 3 this evening and tonight cannot be ruled out.

Precautionary Announcements with No. 1 Signal
=========================================

1. Some precautions against damage should be taken now, gutters and drains should be cleared of obstructions. Hinges, bolts, locks and shutters of windows and doors should be checked.

2. Since there will be swells, you are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

3. All small vessels including low power vessels and fishing vessels in open sea should seek shelter as soon as possible. Please take any precautions necessary for small vessels and secure them properly with moorings.

4. Listen to your radio, watch your TV or browse the Hong Kong Observatory's web site for information on the tropical cyclone.
my bad...i must be off my rocker! LOL
My bold prediction: Hurricane formation expected July 25 in catl.
hi JFV! how's it going?
Damn weathers a wee bit bold...haha
my bold prediction...hurricanes this season..some bad, some not so bad.

:)
Heres my Hurricane Season Prediction. This is A Very Bold Prediction.

The Sun will rise on November 31st.
Hey its good to be bold!!.....at least sometimes.
I'll take that bet about November 31
dont worry enjoy the quiet tropics for now
I'll be very BOLD and say that the sun will definitely not rise on November 31st
Evening everybody. Just poking my head in to see what's up. We had a great day here - hot, humid but with strong easterlies due to the high east of us.

I'd enjoy this weather more if I didn't have to go to work and could go to the beach instead . . . LOL
hey, i was bold, too! **offended**

LOL
I predict a hurricane will form between now, and November 31st...
529. and i thought I was a pansy! LOL

/just kiddin' around
Some thunder / lightning off to my west. Wonder if we're gonna get any overnight rain . . .

Hmmm . . . Looks like even the Big O will get a little liquid refreshment tonight . . .

531. so, judging by your last post, i suppose you're not located in Baja....right? LOL

I will also boldly predcit that a Hurricane will not form ever on November 31st LOL
Yeah i can see those storms from my balcony! Dang be careful they got a lot of lightning with them.
533. Well given the MJO and favorable shear will be here in about a week and a half...id say 8-10 days.
537. jba1a
could anyone comment on the climatological differences between june this year and the same period last year? How about june 2004?
Thanks in advance!
Hey, JFV...things will start to ''ramp up'' in another two weeks or so...
JfV....well im not gonna say that theres gonna be a storm out there exactly 10 days from now...but ill say theyll be the potential for one.
532. pearlandaggie 10:23 PM EDT on June 23, 2008
531. so, judging by your last post, i suppose you're not located in Baja....right? LOL


Notice the SPELLING - it matters. . . lol

541. I would expect that there should be some sort of potential out there by that time. But its unclear if all the conditions will play out so far.
JVF, I would expect any storms before then...to form in the BOC/GOM (since that is the climatology favored areas for June)...JMO
543. REALLY? LOL....where in the ever-livin', ever-lovin' HAIL is Baha! LMAO?

i've heard of Baja before...i figured the username spelled with Baja was already taken!

545. don't you go wishin' that crap on us Gulf Coast residents! LOL
545. Yeah I agree with that...but the GFS is also showing low shear in the CATL so I would watch that area also.
548. that goes for you, too! :)
Pearl. Hey man I live in WPB so trust me I dont want anything except for a lil rain over here! lol
fair 'nuff, stormchaser! :)
546. pearlandaggie 10:41 PM EDT on June 23, 2008
543. REALLY? LOL....where in the ever-livin', ever-lovin' HAIL is Baha! LMAO?


Go back to 531; u will notice some itty bitty islands off to the east of the peninsula???



551. lol yeah!!
552. Ditto...better get more pins!
552. uh-oh...you said "ditto" and you're from WPB...LOL!

is it true that there's a "turtle light" ordinance in WPB?
553. they must be REALLY ITTY BITTY because i didn't see ANYTHING off the east coast of FL! :)
I'm not feeling any jumpier or twitchier than usual so far; based on the aggregate high location for the last couple weeks, anything that forms right now is most likely to head for Central America. This means we dodge the bullet. What's got me twitchy so far is the fact that the darned thing keeps "jumpin' around" . . . i. e. there's a lot of shifting / moving of the location in response to passing lows and troughs. I can see where that could potentially be a problem later in the season if a strong system develops out to our east.
Great graphic of the storms in S Fla. I know that we wanted rain, but we could use a break for a day or two. Everything is starting to go squish, squish!
559. after such a bad drought, are you REALLY whining about rain? LOL

/just messin' with ya :)
556.Yeah....I just saw that somewhere today!
We had some strong storms yesterday - blew over everything outside and made the windows shake. My kids think a tornado is coming every time that happens.

Didn't get a chance to say it yesterday - but I enjoyed the pictures everyone put up of the weather in their area.

Hi Baha - how are you?
557. pearlandaggie 10:52 PM EDT on June 23, 2008
553. they must be REALLY ITTY BITTY because i didn't see ANYTHING off the east coast of FL! :)


Dude, did u say u were a met? because, I don't want to put dirt on your creds, but . . .

ROTFLOL

A hint - think Ernest Hemingway. He had three "island retreats". . .
561. WHAT??? just TODAY??? i've known about it for months and i don't even live ANYWHERE close to WPB!!! (though i wish i did!)
Pearl - I had a friend who lived on Riveria Beach - and they definitely had the light ordinance.

The turtle groups would go out early each morning and put up caution tape around the newly laid eggs so people wouldn't disturb them. You could see the trail in the sands from the mama turtles, very neat.
563. LMFAO! i NEVER claimed to be a MET!!!!

it would be below me to be a MET! LOL i've had FAR more thermodynamics classes in the past! LOL
Hey zoo,

Just enjoying life, that's me. Also looking forward to vacation, so I can sit in the blog and waste time all day . . . lol

Weather was great here today. We haven't had any rain as yet; maybe later tonight. However, the last 10 days or so took the edge off that feeling of desperate dryness . . .

Glad to see S FL getting some moisture at last.
565. yeah, that's cool and all, but is there any concrete evidence that the lights disrupt the turtles in ANY way???

and stop calling me Shirley...err, Pearl! LOL
The nam has what looks like the beginnings of a tropical depression, at least a sfc low in the big bend area Friday, I know its the nam, and nothing much on the GFS showing. Just thought id throw it out.
564. Jeez...no need to freak out! lol....no I meant that I saw it today somewhere but ive known about it since like..I guess April?
570. ROTFLMFAO! hahaha! only APRIL? i've known about it for at LEAST six months...and i could drive a hundred miles and sniff the sand of a Florida beach! you need to listen to AM radio more! :)

/please don't take it personally...i'm only bustin' your chops! :)
Looks like the models are starting to show Systems
NAM
GFS
Any others?
566. pearlandaggie 10:58 PM EDT on June 23, 2008
563. LMFAO! i NEVER claimed to be a MET!!!!


Well THAT's a relief LOL

I'd hate to think the fate of millions was in the hands of somebody who doesn't know there are itty bitty islands off the coast of FL, expecially since they have been the early hurricane warning system for Floridians since the early 1900s . . .
FIFM....

and i could drive a hundred miles and NOT sniff the sand of a Florida beach!

/hangs head in shame...:)
pearl, u know u are stuck with that name now . . . LOL
Haha....Pearl yeah is all good fun man! So how bout hooking me up with one of them "AM" radios you speak of? lol
575. unfortunately, i'm PAINFULLY aware of my unfortuitous blunder! the only problem was that the true magnitude of the blunder became apparent to me only AFTER i had already selected a username...all for the want of two CAPITAL FREAKIN' LETTERS! :)
576. pearlandaggie 11:06 PM EDT on June 23, 2008
573. DAYUM!! no need to get medieval on a po' man! :)


Hey, I'm just messin' wicha . . . LOL

Actually, I live in Nassau, Bahamas, which is where the Baha comes from. It took me a long time to realize that some people thought Baha and Baja are exactly the same (they are, but they aren't :).
waitin on the madden wont be long now
ramp up fast till the madden is done
then again late aug till late sept the second wave on the last madden of the season
with el nino rushing in to dampen the season by early oct after madden is done
to me it looks to be a classic 1 2 3 punch where thats anyones guess at the moment
577. well, i dunno if one of them obsolete *AM* radio band receivers would be kosher with such sophisticated, effite Floridians! livin' in WPB, i can only think of one guy that my radio would be tuned to!
That will be nice - I don't think I'll ever get a vacation that I can sit & hang - always something to do.

My vacations are usually the ones that you need a vacation from. My husband thinks if there is one extra minute we haven't done something right.
578. Yeah, that comes across as Pearl and Aggie . . . took me a while to see the PearLand . . LOL

I still see atmoaggie as AtmoMaggie . . . dunno why . . . lol . . . so it's not all u.
579. well, even i, a poor public-educated imbecile, knew that Baja does not equal Baha! LOL...you said "right off the coast", so i took you literally...if you would have said "a hundred miles or so" off the coast, then i would have looked farther out! see, it's all YOUR fault! :)
582. zoomiami 11:12 PM EDT on June 23, 2008

Zoo, my last couple vacations have been "on the go". Last summer I went all the way out to Colorado and Wyoming for the bulk of my time. This year I'm vegging out. I may make a supply run over to FT Lauderdale one weekend, but otherwise I'm staying put and putting up my feet.
too funny Baha - I thought the same thing!
Hmmm. . . . maybe atmo is the met . . .

583. that's TOO DAYUM FUNNY! i will have to let Atmo know the next time i see him. there's actually a very funny story behind the term "Maggie" that Atmo will probably NOT appreciate.

Texas A&M University was an all-male military ROTC school for a long time. The mascot has always been the "Aggie" since the A in A&M stands for "Agricultural." When women were finally allowed to attend, the guys there called them "MAggies"! I'm sure AtmoMaggie wlll truly appreciate your interpretation of his username! LOL

/and i thought "Pearl" was bad! HAHAHA
aggie is on a roll tonight --

Baha - may each day be a beach day!

(do you actually go to the beach?)
587. now, THAT finally makes some sense! AtmoAggie is a MET....and a DAYUM fine one at that!

i'm one of those lowly engineers from the same school! :)
Well, folks, it's been fun, but I've gotta get to bed. I gotta find me a coffee mill in the a. m. - I burned out the motor in my previous one, and I am finding fresh ground coffee is a must in the mornings. . . . LOL
Have a great evening, Baja...errr..Baha! it must be wonderful to live in such a beautiful place!

i don't see how ANYONE could ever have a bad day there!

Night Baha - I'm off too -
589. zoomiami 11:19 PM EDT on June 23, 2008

(do you actually go to the beach?)


Not as often as I used to. It's harder every summer to find one that's not got a "condo" or a hotel in front of it . . . But I'm determined to get a few days in this summer.
later, zoo!
Night aggie
590. I thought the thermodynamics meant engineer, but didn't want to say so if u didn't want to bring it up . . . LOL

I'm sure Atmo will find this conversation quite interesting . . .

594. you guys should come to Texas! LOL...we may have "doodoo brown water" as a Miami-native-friend of mine put it, but at least there are stretches of beach without condos!
597. HAHAHA!! unfortunately, we had to deal with REAL thermodynamics, which meant expanding beyond the realm of water and steam! LMAO!
592. It's hard, but I somehow manage from time to time . . . [sigh]. I don't think I'd want to move from my little home, though.

Well, I'm really gone now. See u guys tomorrow.

Night all!
well, i'm out, too, folks! it's been an absolute pleasure chattin' with ya'll! have a good evening and i hope to see you here tomorrow!

/lurking ON
E=PAC POSSIBLE INVEST



604. JRRP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2008


AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO E
VENEZUELA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 62W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SCATTERED TSTMS AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KT BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. EXPECT THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE WAVE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER E-CENTRAL VENEZUELA. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE
WILL REACH DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY TUE AND EASTERN CUBA EARLY
WED. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODEL...THE WAVE MAY AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE WED INTO THU
. OBSERVATIONS E OF THE WAVE AND FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE E INDICATE THAT A WIND SURGE OF 20
TO 25 KT FOLLOWS THIS WAVE.



and the NHC added this little part


OF NOTE...THE WEEK OF JUNE 22-28 HAS BEEN DESIGNATED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AS LIGHTNING AWARENESS WEEK. FLORIDIANS
ARE WELL AWARE OF THE DANGERS POSED BY LIGHTNING, AS FLORIDA
TYPICALLY LEADS THE NATION IN LIGHTNING STRIKES AND DEATHS
CAUSED BY LIGHTNING. THE MAIN THING TO REMEMBER REGARDING
LIGHTNING SAFETY IS: GO INDOORS! BEGIN OUTSIDE IS NEVER SAFE
DURING A THUNDERSTORM!.


Hello everyone had a great fishing day in the GOM today....but, got the rear end wet....caught a 5ft. black tip shark, some snapper, 2 red fish, and 2 black grouper.....i will post the shark for everyone to see. It weighed 97lbs.......took me 20 minutes to land it....wore me out........lol
Wow! I hear ya, TS, and glad you had a good time! uuuummmmmmmm, send grouper! ;P
Looks like the spin in the BOC went pooof.....lol
MLC have you ever seen anything like this in June ......heck even July......can't say i ever remember the High this strong......this time of year.
No, I haven't looked at the B/A or mean MSLP in a week or so. That's looking more like 2007 though, right now, I think.

Yep, *poooooff* !!!

New twave emerging though, but will probably beat the MJO coming through though. It won't be long, now!

Anyways, I'm out. Have a good sleep, TS!
Nite MLC talk at ya tomorrow.
Hong Kong Observatory

The Strong Wind Signal, No. 3 is now in force.


This means that winds with mean speeds of 41 to 62 kilometres per hour are expected.

Fengshen continues to edge closer to Hong Kong. Local winds are expected to strengthen gradually and seas will be rough.

According to the present forecast track, Fengshen will be rather close to Hong Kong in the early morning tomorrow.

The possibility of issuing Gale or Storm Wind Signal No.8 cannot be ruled out.

Current Status
=================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen (0806) with a central pressure 980 hectopascals was centred within 20.5N 115.3E and is forecast to move north or north-northwest at about 8 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 55 knots.

============================================

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 3 Signal)

1. You are advised not to delay in taking all precautions to protect your home or property. Make sure now that all loose objects are secure. Porch furniture, flower pots and other objects likely to be blown away should be taken indoors. Check again and make sure all windows and doors can be securely locked.

2. Storm water drains should be cleared of leaves and rubbish, this applies particularly to dwellers in low-lying areas.

3. Engineers, architects and contractors are again reminded that all scaffoldings, hoardings and temporary buildings should be secured.

4. Fishing vessels not yet in typhoon shelters should seek shelter without delay. Check again that all deck fittings are firmly fastened. If available, heavy anchors should be prepared and used in addition to regular anchors.
There is a possible AEW over West Africa. This is the second wave I mentioned out ahead of the one over EAFRICA. The convection illustrared by the red arrow isnt a tropical wave but it showed that convection can be maintained north of 10N off the coast as it was previously thought that the waves we had so far could only survive if they came off below 10N. The wave over African will likely exit north of 10N. They have made their climatological move northward.

Bowl-shaped ITCZ

Latest news for the ill-fated Merchant Vessel Princess of the Stars:

Oil spills from MV Princess of the Stars

MANILA, Philippines - Oil from the capsized MV Princess of the Stars has started spilling onto the seawater since Tuesday morning, hampering efforts to bore a hole on the ship's hull as it might affect the vessel's fuel line and tank.

A radio report citing Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) chief Vice Admiral Wilfredo Tamayo said that the PCG has already placed oil spill booms around the area to contain the spill.

The ill-fated ship’s tanker contains around 290,000 liters of oil, according to a separate radio report.

The PCG has yet to release further details on the spill.

As of Tuesday afternoon, 48 survivors and 67 fatalities have been confirmed by the PCG.

Search and rescue operations are still ongoing to locate the rest of the ship's 862 passengers and crew.

Meanwhile, Sulpicio Lines on Tuesday posted an updated list of survivors on its website.

Source: http://www.gmanews.tv/story/102999/Oil-spills-from-MV-Princess-of-the-Stars
620. IKE
Long-term discussion from Tallahassee,FL....

"Long term...(thu night through Tuesday.)
The GFS has been consistent in bringing the tropical wave near
Puerto Rico westward to the Florida Peninsula and then surging moisture northward up
the peninsula and adjacent eastern Gomex. It is even faster in bringing
this moisture northward (on thu) than last night's runs. The GFS solution
is supported by the NAM through 72 hour. The Euro remains slower than
the GFS in bringing the bulk of the moisture northward...but has it in
place by Friday. 1000-700 mb mean vector winds will be favorable...out
of the SW at 10-15 knots. We will therefore accept the high mex probability of precipitation
for Thursday night into Sat. After this time...the eastern long wave trough
will again amplify and send another synoptic boundary southward into the
deep S. While this boundary will likely not reach this far S (as the
Euro indicates)...it will spark convection and any outflow from
this... along with a prefrontal trough will keep probability of precipitation near climatology
into early next week. Higher probability of precipitation and cloud cover will keep maximum
temperatures a few degrees below normal on Friday and Sat, with near normal
temperatures after that."
List of Shipwrecks of Sulpicio Lines

M/V Dona Paz- 4,341 killed (worst peacetime maritime disaster)
M/V Dona Marilyn- around 250 killed
MV Princess of the Orient- 150 killed
MV Princess of the Stars- ongoing

Remember that these ships are owned by one shipping line, Sulpicio Lines.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
523 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008


THE COMBINATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED NEAR 71 WEST AND A
SURGE IN THE EASTERLIES IN ITS VICINITY HAS CREATED AN AREA OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDING NORTH OF
20 NORTH. GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY INDICATES THAT SOME OF THAT
MOISTURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE MAIN
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL LARGELY PASS SOUTH
OF THE REGION. PWATS COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES. THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF AND INFLUENCE
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED
TO BE MORE FAVORABLE ON WEDNESDAY TO ENHANCE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION.
623. IKE
Long-term from Mobile,AL....

"...the trend is for the ridge to
erode...leaving a weakness in the mass field over the southern states
as middle level energy moves into the middle Mississippi River valley
Thursday through Monday. Rounding the middle/upper level ridge...the GFS
has been consistent in showing an easterly wave spreading higher deep
layer moisture (precipitable waters averaging ~2 inches) north and
west across the Gulf beginning Thursday. This environment looks to
overspread the area Friday and Saturday...with precipitable waters pulling back to
~1.75 inches Sunday and Monday as the wave axis moves west of the area.
The fuel will be there for a chance of showers and thunderstorms
initiating on weak surface boundaries...including the seabreeze.
Storms embedded in this type of airmass will be quite efficient in
depositing locally heavy rainfall. Muggy nights and humid days will
characterize much of the medium range temperature profile."
I use to love Imus. Unfornately he got the boot. Life moves on. Tropics seem interesting. We got pounded with heavy rain last night over 2 inches. Tropical storm conditions. E Cent. Fl.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
433 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008


SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGING TO OUR NORTH AND THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

FOR TODAY...FEATURES TO WATCH WILL BE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS NORTH OF
CUBA...AND MAINLAND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION NEAR CUBA
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DYING OUT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THUS FAR. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MAINLAND CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE MID LEVELS SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT PRECIPITATION
SOMEWHAT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 70W WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE
ON THIS FEATURE. THE MODEL DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE AT MID LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THEN BRINGS A SURGE
OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 2 INCHES WITHIN SOUTHEAST FLOW
BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH MAV GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGH
CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY POPS ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN
A ROW...WILL NUDGE OUR FORECAST POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR THAT
PERIOD. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING MAY OFFER US THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES.

THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON THURSDAY. POPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMO WED NIGHT...THEN TREND BACK DOWN TO CLIMO ON THURSDAY AS
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WAVE
AND PWATS DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THIS
WEEK...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ON TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS. THE GFS BRINGS PWATS DOWN TO NEAR
1.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
626. IKE

624. leftovers 5:27 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
I use to love Imus. Unfornately he got the boot. Life moves on. Tropics seem interesting. We got pounded with heavy rain last night over 2 inches. Tropical storm conditions. E Cent. Fl.


I use to watch him on MSNBC...you think he would have learned.
It's a weather site.
Imus has nothing to do with this!
Let's yack about the t/wave heading towards FL!
628. IKE
Long-term from NO,LA....

"Long term...
not too much change here. The numerical models still continue to
show a wetter pattern courtesy of deeper tropical moisture surging
north through the Gulf into the forecast area as a general
weakness/troughing sets up between middle/upper ridges to the west
and east. The NAM appears a bit overdone with quantitative precipitation forecast Thursday as it
shows moisture more typical of some type of tropical system over
about the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico brushing up against
our coastal areas. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) lo0k better and are generally
accepted with the wettest days and highest probability of precipitation looking to be
Friday and Saturday. Latest GFS shows slight drying with slightly
higher pressure/heights building at the surface and aloft Sunday
and Monday...but will not indicate much change from climatology at
this time."
Who needs to go to Iraq we have a unfinished war in our cities. 2 million people in jail now and going up. Imus just tells it how he sees it.
630. beell
616.
Weather456,

Does seem to be an early indicator of a shift. 0Z 06/24 GFS does support a fairly strong wave at 700mb leaving the African Coast well north of 10N on Sunday. Very far into the model run and it does wash out a bit by the time it reaches the CATL-but as you say-the times may be a-changing.
Beell!
Nice to see ya man!
Now Shup and worry about Conus crap!
LOLOL
71. IKE 3:13 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
69....would you dad stay again?


Yes he would IKE and he will probaly want me to come into town and ride it out with him(protect him) but its too risky,the levees are too weak now.
The Key West Discussion is way whacked!
Read it here.

634. beell
Morning vort,

Now Shup and worry about Conus crap!

I'm on it! LOL. You didn't think you could hang up your severe blog already didja?

About to slide on into the work harness. Will check back later. Top 'o the day to you and all the vortidians and non-vortidians!
635. beell
633.
Saw dat!

WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD
10-4 on the whatever Beell!
It is what it is.......
The GFS has been showing development in the BOC for the past few runs. Here's the latest track from 06Z June 24.

638. IKE
06Z GFS still shows a system in the extreme western GOM in about a week...making landfall near Brownsville,TX.......

Future System?
639. IKE
You beat me to it 456! LOL!
BOC system could be big trouble.
What BOC system?
mornin' Beel!
643. IKE
640. leftovers 6:05 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
BOC system could be big trouble.


I haven't seen much from other models on it.

The 00Z ECMWF is hinting at it....

ECMWF...frames 5 through 8
644. IKE
641. vortfix 6:06 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
What BOC system?


The one the GFS has picked up on the last few runs.
looks like a genesis similar to Bret 2005, where that tropical wave in the ECARIB has something to do with it.
Morning all.
Heavy showers woke me up this morning. 1/2' in 30 mins. more to come all day, looks like.
Bring it on man.

Nice situation with the waves creeping north as they exit Africa.
Still looks to be setting up for some interesting times in the coming months.
BE PREPARED..........
yep and the gulf is a hotttub at the moment.
648. IKE
645. Weather456 6:09 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
looks like a genesis similar to Bret 2005, where that tropical wave in the ECARIB has something to do with it


Exactly...

Bret in 2005
I see it Ike!
645. Weather456 11:09 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
looks like a genesis similar to Bret 2005, where that tropical wave in the ECARIB has something to do with it.


Correct
IKE look at 632
Geez.....more whack kid stuff!
653. IKE

632. TheWeatherMan504 5:47 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
71. IKE 3:13 PM GMT on June 23, 2008
69....would you dad stay again?

Yes he would IKE and he will probaly want me to come into town and ride it out with him(protect him) but its too risky,the levees are too weak now.


Ride it out? I'd ride it out in a car heading away from it.
Thats what alot of hurricane storm chasers do even some of the crew9@ TWC) does do that how do you think TWC brodcast inside of hurricanes. Somebody had to work the computers in the vans.
CHECK THIS OUT!!!!!!!!

No.....I don't want to check it out!
Stop with the ridiculious stuff already.
655. vortfix 11:24 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
No.....I don't want to check it out!
Stop with the ridiculious stufff already.


What is so rediculious with talking about the weather?
WEATHER-456-Now that it is almost July,what are your thoughts on the number of storms in the Atlantic basin this year,and if you will,mention which areas you feel have the highest chance for a landfall.
NASA warming scientist: 'This is the last chance'



WASHINGTON (AP) — Exactly 20 years after warning America about global warming, a top NASA scientist said the situation has gotten so bad that the world's only hope is drastic action.
James Hansen told Congress on Monday that the world has long passed the "dangerous level" for greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and needs to get back to 1988 levels. He said Earth's atmosphere can only stay this loaded with man-made carbon dioxide for a couple more decades without changes such as mass extinction, ecosystem collapse and dramatic sea level rises.

"We're toast if we don't get on a very different path," Hansen, director of the Goddard Institute of Space Sciences who is sometimes called the godfather of global warming science, told The Associated Press. "This is the last chance."

Hansen brought global warming home to the public in June 1988 during a Washington heat wave, telling a Senate hearing that global warming was already here. To mark the anniversary, he testified before the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming where he was called a prophet, and addressed a luncheon at the National Press Club where he was called a hero by former Sen. Tim Wirth, D-Colo., who headed the 1988 hearing.

To cut emissions, Hansen said coal-fired power plants that don't capture carbon dioxide emissions shouldn't be used in the United States after 2025, and should be eliminated in the rest of the world by 2030. That carbon capture technology is still being developed and not yet cost efficient for power plants.

659. IKE
Thanks TheWeatherMan504.......
Hey Weather - great video - I looked up their website and watched a bunch of them before...pretty much convinced me that I'm too much of a chicken to ride a hurricane out - that I need to go somewhere far away from hom and sip on cocktails with umbrellas until it passes.

Morning everyone!

659. IKE 11:29 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
Thanks TheWeatherMan504.......


your welcome.
Morning all.

Anybody used the NASA viewers since last night? They seem to be stuck - at least for me - and I wanted to find out if anybody else was experiencing the same problem.
Re: 619. vortfix 10:13 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
Nice one vort!

Publications by James E. Hansen Most are available for download

In Hansen's early career starting in the 1960's his focus was was on the effects of clouds and aerosols in planetary atmospheres. From this page, "During the 1970s, Hansen was an investigator for several missions, including the Pioneer Venus Cloud Orbiter and the Voyager Photopolarimeter Experiment. He was principal investigator on the Galileo orbiter to Jupiter, which earned a NASA Group Achievement Award. He then became manager of the Goddard Institute’s planetary and climate programs, working to develop research to effectively monitor and study global climate changes. Hansen also teaches at the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University."

Check out the title of one of his 1974 publications, where he takes a role as middle co-author: 1974: The GISS model of the global atmosphere(pdf). That is still the field that he works in today, where he leads as principle investigator at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).
603. Stormchaser2007 12:19 AM EDT on June 24, 2008
E=PAC POSSIBLE INVEST


I was looking at this last night. They have a couple of waves they were looking at, that one and another further west around 120 or so.
660. melwerle 11:31 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
Hey Weather - great video - I looked up their website and watched a bunch of them before...pretty much convinced me that I'm too much of a chicken to ride a hurricane out - that I need to go somewhere far away from hom and sip on cocktails with umbrellas until it passes.

Morning everyone!


The two worst things that can happen aside from dieing in a bad hurricane is if it happens at night, and then if your get in the eye your ears hurt so bad because of low pressure its the opposite of being at the bottom of a 10 ft. pool.
666. IKE
662. BahaHurican 6:35 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
Morning all.

Anybody used the NASA viewers since last night? They seem to be stuck - at least for me - and I wanted to find out if anybody else was experiencing the same problem.



SSD has had issues EVERY day for the past few days and it's more of the same this morning.
Not me Weather...I'm going to Atlanta to sip cocktails by the pool and hope the rain doesn't come that far west...nothing i can do to "protect" my house by staying and we live about 3 blocks from the river/intracoastal. No WAY.
666. IKE 7:39 AM EDT on June 24, 2008

SSD has had issues EVERY day for the past few days and it's more of the same this morning.



Didn't realize SSD ran the NASA viewers. . .
669. IKE
668. BahaHurican 6:42 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
666. IKE 7:39 AM EDT on June 24, 2008

SSD has had issues EVERY day for the past few days and it's more of the same this morning.


Didn't realize SSD ran the NASA viewers. . .


I don't know that they do...just too much of a coincidence?
667. melwerle 11:40 AM GMT on June 24, 2008
Not me Weather...I'm going to Atlanta to sip cocktails by the pool and hope the rain doesn't come that far west...nothing i can do to "protect" my house by staying and we live about 3 blocks from the river/intracoastal. No WAY.


I understand, im just used to staying for hurricanes i grew up in NOLA and left for college when i was 19 in 1997.
Yup. Page says last updated shortly after 4 pm yesterday afternoon EDT.
Hansen is seriously whacked out!
Sorry Guy Gee!
673. IKE
Here's a satellite I found that's working through the NHC........

Link
669. IKE 7:44 AM EDT on June 24, 2008

Implication is that the problem isn't with the site but with the satellite. That is not good. :(
Here are my thoughts:
The tropical Atlantic remains quiet this morning. Satellite imagery isn't showing anything that will develop into a tropical depression over at least the next few days. I am, however, watching a tropical wave over the central Caribbean. This wave has been fairly feisty as winds of 30 to 40 mph have been observed after this wave has passed. This tropical wave is forecast to track into the western Caribbean by late this week. I will be keeping a close eye on the progress of this tropical wave this weekend as it is forecast by the GFS model to develop into an area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and track northward into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday night and next Tuesday. The GFS model has been forecasting this scenario since yesterday morning. I would like to see at least one to two more day's worth of consistency or some of the other models forecasting the same scenario.

At this point, only the GFS model is forecasting low pressure to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. So, at this point, I am just going to watch the various model outputs and compare them to what is actually happening in the tropics. At this point, it is nothing to be concerned with, just something to keep an eye on. It should be noted that most of the other models are forecasting eastern Pacific tropical cyclone development this weekend and the GFS model may be "painting" this development too far east.

So, in conclusion, tropical cyclone development is not expected through at least Thursday.
676. IKE
You have to refresh it yourself..it only updates once an hour.
678. IKE

674. BahaHurican 6:47 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
669. IKE 7:44 AM EDT on June 24, 2008

Implication is that the problem isn't with the site but with the satellite. That is not good. :(


I agree...their having major issues. Imagine if a hurricane comes along? Hope they get it corrected.
657. hydrus 7:26 AM AST on June 24, 2008
WEATHER-456-Now that it is almost July,what are your thoughts on the number of storms in the Atlantic basin this year,and if you will,mention which areas you feel have the highest chance for a landfall.

My previous forecast was 15/7/3, dont see any reason to change it.

Also, the last part of the question is pretty tough to answer or accurately answer. I cannot give you an exact answer. I can tell you, based on the forecasted pattern, storms should track more northerly than storms in 2007. Also, I dont like to focus on highest risk areas, cuz after all, each and every location in hurricane alley stands an equal chance of getting impacted by a hurricane.
#672

That's an under statement
615. Weather456 "The convection illustrated by the red arrow...showed that convection can be maintained north of 10N off the coast as it was previously thought that the waves...could only survive if they came off below 10N."

Vince , Catarina , and now this. Kinda creepy when stuff that doesn't happen keep happening.
WEATHER-456-Thank you for the response.My best guess is 15/8/4 -I also believe that most of the storms this season will track more to the north.I believe (unfortunately)that Florida will suffer 2 landfalls this year.I truly hope I am incorrect on that one.
I think the GOM has the highest risk too ) :
my local Scientific Forecaster Discussion (NWS) had this in it today:

Long term...not completely ruling out rather high probability of precipitation from the
GFS on Wednesday but did trim back to 60 percent across the southern tier
since the low level ridge hangs in. GFS develops a wave or a
closed low in the Bay of Campeche this weekend. This area has some
protection from shear in the middle levels thanks to the topography
over Mexico. Not quite ready to go with a developing tropical low
moving north along western Gulf early next week which would be a
very wet solution for US. European model doesn't pick up on this
and appears more reasonable at this point...but will have to watch.


morning
the time is approaching when it is anticipated that the atl season will kick off with a bang judging from the fact that all the ingredients are about to gel. there is alot of speculation as to where the cyclones will hit this year. although the trend is for the storms to take a more northerly trend this year. one also has to take into account how deep in the tropics that they evolve
Thanks for the link IKE. I'm hoping that by the time I get back later today they have straightened out the satellite problems.
Maybe we will see a july simalar to 2005.
689. IKE
687. BahaHurican 7:39 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
Thanks for the link IKE. I'm hoping that by the time I get back later today they have straightened out the satellite problems.


Your welcome.

From the 8:05 am EDST Atlantic tropical weather discussion...

"Tropical wave remains along 71w S of 20n. Wave over the past 24
hours appears to be moving W at 20 to 25 kt. Satellite imagery
shows a broad inverted-v curvature between 65w and 73w.
Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms surrounding the wave
from 16n-22n between the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola are in
the the diffluent upper flow just to the E of an upper trough."
So, I see folks indicating storms will track more north than 2007. Any educated rational for this assessment.
From reading San Juan discussions seems as if dust is settling in in the Cent Atlantic. Get this tropical wave out of here there should be a lull of activity.
688. TheWeatherMan504 8:41 AM EDT on June 24, 2008
Maybe we will see a july simalar to 2005.


Doubt it. We may see a couple storms, but I don't think the SSTs will support anything along the scale of a Dennis or an Emily. . .
693. IKE
The wave is moving on west of PR...but still windy...

"Some areas should experience sustained
winds above 25 miles per hour as the morning heating kicks in. Because of the
unusually strong winds above 3000 feet...gusts of as much as 45
miles per hour are possible in isolated areas and residents will want to
prepare for this possibility. The worst of the winds should pass
by 2 PM...but the next shift will better be able to evaluate this.
It will be windy in the U.S. Virgin Islands but...except for small
areas of the highest terrain...Wind Advisory criteria was not
expected to be met."......from the PR discussion.
People should seriously shut up here about global warming, this is not a climate blog.


My official predictions for this season. I'm not going to predict landfalls and locations at this time.


15-17 TS,
8-10 HURRICANE,
4-5 CAT3=/<.


I do think we MIGHT see an Dennis or an Emily type scenario in July; but NOT both.
I said similar not as active but i think we could see a cape verde hurricane this season in july, the odds seem better this year for some reason because the way that the Bermuda High has set up and the warmer than usual waters in the GOM the waters are august warm in there..
690. GotSand 8:46 AM EDT on June 24, 2008
So, I see folks indicating storms will track more north than 2007. Any educated rational for this assessment.


There was some indication that the high would be less likely to build all the way west/south and therefore would allow a more northerly track. However, so far the high seems to be sitting quite far south and there's been some consistent ridging down across the Bahamas, Florida and into the eastern Gulf. The question is whether this is just an early season setup or whether it will last.
694. SpaceThrilla1207 8:52 AM EDT on June 24, 2008

Predictions are basically "out the window" this season (no basis)...It will either be an above average season, or, below average and the indicators (and mulit-decadal cycle) are pointing towards an above average year (above 10 storms)......That's as close as anyone (including the Pro Mets) can get.....
696. BahaHurican 12:58 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
690. GotSand 8:46 AM EDT on June 24, 2008
So, I see folks indicating storms will track more north than 2007. Any educated rational for this assessment.


There was some indication that the high would be less likely to build all the way west/south and therefore would allow a more northerly track. However, so far the high seems to be sitting quite far south and there's been some consistent ridging down across the Bahamas, Florida and into the eastern Gulf. The question is whether this is just an early season setup or whether it will last.


You have a good point i like the way you think.
692. BahaHurican

The SST's in the GOM are plenty warm enough.

I keep thinking about years with strong CV storms at the end of July, marking the beginning of constant activity until the end of September.
BTW, good morning everyone. Looks quiet for now but the potential is lurking.
696. BahaHurican 8:58 AM EDT on June 24, 2008

I'm seeing the same thing (for the time being)...Of course, once we get into late August and September, it will boil down to trofs weakening the ridges and allowing the storms to curve back up...Will we see another Dean/Feliz track this year?....Who knows...
GOT SAND-I think tropical storms and hurricanes will track more to the north this year because of 2 things.The jet stream keeps dipping far enough south to push troughs deep into the gulf and the s.e.U.S.-And the configuration of the Azores/Bermuda high,s western periphery tends to weaken when this happens allowing storms to swing north.That,s my take on it anyway.What do you think?
697. weathermanwannabe

Very well said wannabe!
702. weathermanwannabe 1:03 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
696. BahaHurican 8:58 AM EDT on June 24, 2008

I'm seeing the same thing (for the time being)...Of course, once we get into late August and September, it will boil down to trofs weakening the ridges and allowing the storms to curve back up...Will we see another Dean/Feliz track this year?....Who knows...


I think the high is going to be strong enough to prevent fish storms but weak enough to not have tracks like emily, dean,and felix. But unfortuneatly tracks more like Ivan, dennis, georges, and andrew.
704. 69Viking 9:04 AM EDT on June 24, 200 Good Morning......Just waiting for the next, uhh......invest I guess...May have to wait at least a week if not more....Lol
699. 69Viking 9:01 AM EDT on June 24, 2008
692. BahaHurican

The SST's in the GOM are plenty warm enough.


We were speaking specifically about a repeat of 2005, not generally. Actually waters throughout the basin are warm enough to support storm formation. However, 2005 was unusual in the intensity and extent of highly anomolous THCP throughout the basin, which is what fueled the many strong storms that season, including the two in July.
Whatever else happens, I don't think we'll be below average or even average numbers-wise. I think we're going to end up with 12+ systems. The key is, how strong, and where do they track?
708. BahaHurican 1:10 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Whatever else happens, I don't think we'll be below average or even average numbers-wise. I think we're going to end up with 12+ systems. The key is, how strong, and where do they track?


indeed
BTW, is it me, or is Fengshen set to hit Hong Kong after all??? That storm just insisted on going west, despite all predictions to the contrary. Guess the trough that was supposed to pick it up slowed down . . .
708. BahaHurican 9:10 AM EDT on June 24, 2008 Good Point, and, we cannot rule out a really strong CV storm coming through (where-ever) at some point, causing some major upwelling/cooling of the waters in it's wake, and literally cooling things down for the subsequent waves for a period of time....As said here many times, it only takes one to make the season if the conditions and ultimate landfall "jive" so the speak.....
It's interesting that 2005 only had one Cape Verde storm. The majority of the storms that hit formed closer to home.
677. vortfix 7:48 AM EDT

Thanks. I didn't see that on the local news yet.
Dig this!

BBL...Out for some chores....
dang 715 that must have been a very vigorus cape verde hurricane.
I think 2005 should be remembered as the year of the "picture-perfect" ATL cyclone. We must have had 8 storms with the equivalent of "textbook" presentation . . .

DRAKOEN-If you would, please read my 703 post and tell me what you think on my statement on storm tracks this year.
GOES WV Loop of the Basin Link

IR Loop GOM Link

Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours) Link
717. jphurricane2006 9:20 AM EDT on June 24, 2008

I just had a mental image of something like that this season . . . the entire northern perimeter of the basin was affected!

I'd also LOVE to know what the high setup was like that summer / fall . . . lol
Interesting little note from our local NWS discussion this morning...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2008



.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHRA SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN
TAPERING OFF. WINDS IN GENERAL 5-15 KNOTS SEAS 2-4 FEET. DIURNAL
TREND OF LIGHTER WINDS DURING THE DAY AND STRONGER OVERNIGHT. AS OF
NOW AM DISCOUNTING THE GFS PROG OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN GULF SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HAVE BLENDED PREVIOUS
PACKAGE WITH ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
45



703. hydrus 1:03 PM GMT on June 24, 2008

How far north and where?
Well...if your along the GOM Coast from Brownsville to the Key's.
Now is a good time to complete ones Hurricane Plan and supply up.
Every week can bring the Chance of a Strike now.

Best the rush.
Have a Plan and Fuel now.
703. hydrus 1:03 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
GOT SAND-I think tropical storms and hurricanes will track more to the north this year because of 2 things.The jet stream keeps dipping far enough south to push troughs deep into the gulf and the s.e.U.S.-And the configuration of the Azores/Bermuda high,s western periphery tends to weaken when this happens allowing storms to swing north.That,s my take on it anyway.What do you think?


The dip in the jet stream that we are seeing now is normal. Its more about the NAO. A positive NAO would allow the A/B High staying to the east and intensify which allows for the recurvature of storms. The Negative NAO allows the Bermuda high to extend out westward giving a greater chance for Southern U.S. landfalls.
And, my final post before I get out of here is the century mark season, 1908. Hope this doesn't turn out to be an analog year track-wise . . .:)

UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link
Satellites

The Earth Scan Lab captures telemetry from several earth-orbiting satellites. The sensor systems on-board the various spacecraft offer views in many spectral bands, and span a spatial resolution from 250m - 4km per data pixel.

Satellites can be classified as either polar orbiting or geostationary depending on their orbital behavior. Many polar orbiting satellites are in a sun-synchronous orbit.
Among the satellites currently captured are: Link
The Azores/BH is far south and more west at this time than is forecast. it is expected that it will retreat further north and east this season to allow the storms to curve a little north than past years. Having said that, although the B/H is forecast to retreat, there is no guarantee that this will hold as the high could stay in this position throughout the summer. what is important is to be prepared.
728. Patrap 1:33 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link


uhhh-ooohhh LA might get some tropical weather according to the GFS.
Usually do in July..climatology rules that roost.

San Ciriaco 1999, name by the islander of Puerto Rico, following the catholic almanac of the Saint's name of the day it strike,San Ciriaco 1999(category 5), San Felipe II,(catergory 5)1928(3,000)(death in Puerto Rico alone, San NIcolas 1931(category 2), San Ciprian 1932(category 4). I wonder how they were identify by other areas they affected.
weatherman, yep i seen that also..guys and gals..time to wax those boards!!
734. Nolehead 1:47 PM GMT on June 24, 2008

if that is the case LA might see a storm similar to Matthew of 2004.

Judging from the long range GFS and ECMWF any storms that go north of 20N in the Tropical Atlantic are getting recurved; which is normal for this time of year.
I dont think comparisons work,as the Conditions are never quite the Same Synoptically season to season as a whole.

But Cindy in 05 was the Last July impact here.
Wow this would be a bummer if the BOC played out and this happened....(i know it was in august)

737. Patrap 1:49 PM GMT on June 24, 2008

Not a simalar type of storm but a similar track is what im talking about.
Yes,,tracks do usually favor a North to Ne Movement out the BOC this time of year.

Is 504 in the area code now?
738. Stormchaser2007 1:50 PM GMT on June 24, 2008

Not likley but the GOM is certainly warm enough for that.
738. actually, that would be GREAT if is repeated exactly as before. Brett is the ONLY Category 4 landfalling hurricane that DID NOT have its name retired. The reason: that part of Texas is primarily the King Ranch and only has a few roads going through it and no real towns or settlements. As such, only some cows died last time!
Yep the system ( if it were to develop ) wouldnt even be near the strength of that storm.....
Is 504 in the area code now?

huh???????area code where??????
In New Orleans..504 is the area code
742. WOW thats amazing!! Never knew that a Cat 4 could make landfall and not get there name retired . Well actually that would still be bad because a Cat 4 in the Gulf would surely raise the gas prices even higher! :(
Well..then get used to it.Cat 3 and Higher are about a Given in the GOM every 1-2 years
My parents live in metairie and its 985 i just put a random number at the end of my handle because theweatherman was already taken by someone else.
But it dont take a Cat 4 to get a name retired...nor to take Lives.
Allison the Houston flooder proved that in 2001 in June.
This should be declared an Invest soon....
SST'S are on the increase in thr MDR

Link
I see your a Weather Channel Producer by your Handle.
I grew up in Metairie and rode out Katrina on Bonnabel Blvd.On the Bucktown side of Veterans.
StormChaser - where is that?
patrap...isn't that the truth..it's almost every year it seems now..
Well bret only caused 60million in damage and apparently no lives were lost so I dont know how this coulda gotten retired....
Morning StormW
i grew up on 45th street in metairie near the causeway.I went to Holy Cross High School.
Excellent. Grew up Behind Chapelle,in Westgate.

Dau a Senior at Dominican..son to be Freshman at Jesuit High
Good morning,Storm
Mel its located In the East Pacific....
A fine "Semper Paratus" to you StormW.

Looks like you'll be getting busy soon enuf if climatology runs true.
Thanks JP - morning everyone!
jesuit is a good school your kid must be smart.
746 and 755. Yeah, as damage potential goes, 60 million is not a lot (unless you're the one affected). Also, there's not a whole lot of drilling in that area when compared to the TX/LA border area just offshore.

By the way, Bret comes up again on the name list in 2011.
He's learner.And she too.
He just scholarshipped out from Public School.
Were very Proud of both of them as they have been thru a lot with smiles since K.

Thanx for the words. Hope your Parents are well in Metairie too.
Mind you that Bret was used in the 2005 season....just wanted to throw that out.
My parents now live on lafreinire st. thats where the footage was taken.
Good morning,


Ahhhhhh, the boring tropics............
High School Freshman..StormW.,my BAd on clarifying that.

He might get drafted on a College Campus,.He's a Lineman too.

Thanks the same though friend.
Morning Storm!
But i got a scolorship to Oklahoma University and thats where i went to college and got a degree in meteorology then in 2005 there was an opening at TWC for a producer so i took it.
06z GFS 150 hours out.....

One thing about the 0z GFS scenario is that it is climatologicaly favorable to happen.
Morning all!

It would just seem to figure that buzz would be around the GOM when we leave for a 5 day camping trip tomorrow (here in Texas). Sure hope we have TV reception! Then again, its laughable to watch some smaller cities weather reports when you are at least used to a major market.
rain - I have to agree. And I used to work at one of the stations here in Houston (producer). When I go to smaller cities it just seems funny to me.

I hear thunder around here this morning... but not a drop of rain :(
Of course you're taking a battery powered NOAA Weather Radio with you right?
GFS MJO forecast.....

BTW, can anyone suggest good NOAA Weather Radio products for the home and when mobile?
789. 69Viking 2:27 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Of course you're taking a battery powered NOAA Weather Radio with you right?


good point viking, or Notify INC. by TWC.
I hear "funder" too...as my 5 year old puts it! No rain on my little piece of Tx yet either.

Unfortunately my NOAA radio got lost somewhere in the Rita mess. Yes....I know.....maybe when I'm out and about today I will get one again. I know I should!
4 yr old says "funder" also LOL
The Emergency Email Network ...
from your local, regional and national government sources.
Weather Information-Homeland Security-Local Emergency Management- Health Alert

http://www.emergencyemail.org/ Link
Hi,In the western part of the Island of PR we experienced winds gusting up to 35mph,they lasted for about two hours, a very stormy morning indeed for us at the beach where we were celebrating our traditional "San Juan eve".
794. Patrap

Thanks, looks decent for the price.
Viking & Patrap,
I bought myself a Midland HH50 Pocket size great reception easy to use and have a clip to take it anywhere requires 3AAA batteries for $15
Wow that High is very defined.
Thanks Patrap. Will try to drop in there amongst my list of shopping today.
Early warning is critical nowadays as folks are so Mobile and traveling.
Hard to Lug the NOAA radio inside the mall or restaurant.

Those are neat sport
800. txalwaysprepared 2:45 PM GMT on June 24, 2008

Thats very unusual for this time of the year you usualy see that in august not june.
One can always send folks pass my blog for the NOAA radio info in my header.Link
805. IKE
797. HurakanPR 9:43 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
Hi,In the western part of the Island of PR we experienced winds gusting up to 35mph,they lasted for about two hours, a very stormy morning indeed for us at the beach were we where celebrating our traditional "San Juan eve".


It's moving on west of you now......


The 12Z NAM over-doing the moisture from the tropical wave, along the northern GOM????.....

Link



Good Morning All...

Heard this morning that the FL panhandle is due for some nasty weather later this week. Is this due to any tropical activity thats brewing? Just checking...

Smiles.... Bethie
The high is a bit on the strong side at 1030mb.
Sailing in Jax this weekend - is it supposed to be yucky? I would rather not pack up the boat if it's going to be lousy weather...
809. IKE

806. bethie 9:52 AM CDT on June 24, 2008
Good Morning All...

Heard this morning that the FL panhandle is due for some nasty weather later this week. Is this due to any tropical activity thats brewing? Just checking...

Smiles.... Bethie


Yes.
Where'd you find that Sport?
Hong Kong Observatory

Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal, 8 remains in effect.


This means that winds with mean speeds of 63 kilometres per hour or more are expected from the northeast quarter.

Fengshen continues to edge closer to Hong Kong. Local winds are strengthening gradually.

According to the present forecast track, Fengshen will be closest to Hong Kong in the early morning, its centre might even cross the territory of Hong Kong.

In the past hour, the maximum sustained winds recorded at Cheung Chau and Sai Kung were 60 and 48 kilometres per hour with maximum gusts 81 and 86 kilometres per hour respectively.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen (0806) with a central pressure 980 hectopascals was centred within 21.3N 114.8E and is forecast to move north or north-northwest at about 9 knots for the next 24 hours.

Maximum winds near the centre are estimated to be 55 knots.

(Precautionary Announcements with No. 8 Signal)

1. Complete all precautions in your home. Lock all windows and doors, fit bars into position and insert reinforced shutters and gates if they are available. Adhesive tape fixed to large window-panes in exposed positions will reduce damage by broken glass. Strom water drains should be cleared of leaves and rubbish.

2. Do not stand near windows on the exposed side of your home. Move all furniture and valuables away from these areas. Make sure you have a safe place to shelter, should windows be broken.

3. Since seas are rough, you are advised to stay away from the shoreline and not to engage in water sports.

4. Flights at Hong Kong International Airport may be affected by the weather. Please contact your airline for the latest flight information before departing for the airport.

3 Hong Kong wu-sites with data Link


Looks more like an august setup than the usual june setup.
Noticed recently the twc has really picked it up on their tropical reports. Way to go. I believe you'll get alot better ratings by doing this this summer. This hobby grows on people. Look at this blog people sometimes stay up all night updating information and sorts. Hope you keep it up TWC
Thanks Patrap. Think Radio Shack would have a decent travel model? Since we are leaving in the a.m. wont have time to order one.
817. IKE
SSD satellites are now working and updating....

Link
815. leftovers 3:13 PM GMT on June 24, 2008
Noticed recently the twc has really picked it up on their tropical reports. Way to go. I believe you'll get alot better ratings by doing this this summer. This hobby grows on people. Look at this blog people sometimes stay up all night updating information and sorts. Hope you keep it up TWC


The only problem i have is i dont like the way they made us setup the tropical update introduction this year i liked it the way it was in 04 and 05 and storm alert isnt gonna look exactly the same as it did in past years but i belive it will still be red. And rating skyrocked when we went into HD and when Cantore went into Evening Edition.But thank you for the complement.

Hades!!! I've been waiting for you!!! Finally got an e-mail from my surf friend in the phillipines. He lives in San Juan, but was married in CEBU (true surfer style) while the winds and rain of Feng were at a lull. While, since he was in the process of getting married in the middle of a 'cane) he didn't have time to e-mail me. Once he received my e-mail and advice that he follow things on WU, because he wasn't getting the full picture (he too prior to my e-mail figured it was going out to sea) he checked out things here (and I believe the information you had on your blog Hades)and made some decisions from there. I am happy to report that he was married, and is now very happily surfing 6-8ft seas. Just want to thank all you guys, and especially Hades on this one!
I think the beginnings of what the GFS may be talking about is forming in the BOC, not sure, just some clouds
Morning everyone, what is going on North of the Dominacan
RAINRAIN, Radio shack had some decent travel models. Got one for the surf travel bag, leaned that it would be good to have one from Frances, had one for Jeanne - It's nice to have for trips over to the east coast of FL

Wonder if this area of interest will send some swell my way - buoy watch....you guys are picking up on this b/4 the surf dudes are
way ahead of ya surfmom, waxed up and ready to go...just waiting for the swell to arrive..
LOL.. I am so excited!!!! Now to clarify my joy - no storms of mass destruction - just a pleasant rain making swell creating storm -- enough to rock the buoys, but not enough to cause damage......
LOL I AM SO EXCITED!! I'd like to qualify my joy by stating NO Storms of Mass Destruction, just enough of a rain making swell creating storm --enough to rock the buys and send some waves, but not cause any damage.

I've been paddling the buoys for weeks, maybe payoff time is on it's way
Surfmom, I wondered how you surfed on the GOM, I remember a very flat, very calm, body of water when I lived there. Little bumps once in a while!
828. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Interesting discussion on differences between the GFS and ECMWF ensemble models today in HPC's Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion:
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 930 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2008
[...]
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS REPRESENTS THE WESTERN...AMPLIFIED EXTREME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 00Z/24 CYCLE WITH THE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH THE 00Z GEFS MEAN TAKING THE DISTINCTION OF THE FLAT...PROGRESSIVE COUNTERPART. BECAUSE THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT COMPRISE THE GEFS MEAN ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS RESOLVED THAN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS...IT IS NOT NECESSARILY AS MEANINGFUL...SAY...AS WHEN THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF DIFFERS FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS MADE UP OF COMPARABLY RESOLVED MEMBERS. IF A PATTERN IS POISED TO AMPLIFY VIA A PARTICULARLY ENERGETIC SHORT WAVE...A MORE HIGHLY RESOLVED MODEL IS MORE LIKELY TO CAPTURE SUCH A FINER SCALE MECHANISM. IN THIS CASE...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF IS CLOSER TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM THAT CYCLE THAN THE PAIRING FROM 00Z/23...ADDING CREDIBILITY TO THE EUROPEAN CENTER SOLUTION.[...]

This may seem cryptic, but without having to dig back into the manuals myself, from Mark Iredell, NCEP/EMC Global Modeling Branch : "The GFS collects observations for 2 hours and 45 minutes past synoptic time and makes a 16 day forecast from 4 synoptic times per day, namely 0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC, and 1800 UTC. The GFS starts at the same highest resolution (T254 L64) as the FNL but drops resolution during the forecasts. After hour 84, the GFS drops to T170 L42 resolution. This horizontal resolution is roughly equivalent to a global 80 km mesh. This vertical resolution extends from 996 mb to 2.0 mb for a surface pressure of 1000 mb and approximates a 850 meter mesh at 250 mb. Then after hour 180, the GFS drops to T126 L28 resolution. This horizontal resolution is roughly equivalent to a global 105 km mesh. This vertical resolution extends from 995 mb to 2.7 mb for a surface pressure of 1000 mb and approximates a 1300 meter mesh at 250 mb.The ENS consists of 22 extra 16 day perturbed forecasts, 11 at 0000 UDT and 11 at 1200 UDT. The ensemble starts at the same T126 L28 resolution described above, but the ensemble also drops resolution during the forecasts. After hour 84, the GFS drops to T62 L28 resolution. This horizontal resolution is roughly equivalent to a global 210 km mesh. This vertical resolution is the same as for the T126 L28 resolution"

Further, from easterwx, rainshadow notes, "When comparing the operational run to the ensemble mean you are really comparing an apple to a bunch of lemons. The ensemble members are run at three times the resolution of the operational gfs (*guygee-he means 1/3 ...the resolution of the ensemble models is 3 times lower ...a difference in definitions*). That poor resolution should result in flatter, more progressive solutions. The fact that the ensemble members are farther east is what one would expect from them. The only time I find ensemble solutions useful is when they show a deeper, less progressive solution. The ensemble members were also farther east with tonight's system."

However, the ECMWF ensembles have been considerably updated and run at a much higher resolution. See ECMWF 2005 Higher resolution model upgrades, the ECMWF Newsletter - Chronological list of articles, and ECMWF Atmospheric model identification numbers w/links to the technical specs.