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Typhoon Dolphin Intensifying as it Heads Towards Guam

By: Jeff Masters 3:37 PM GMT on May 13, 2015

Typhoon Dolphin is gathering strength in the waters to the east of the U.S. Mariana Islands, and is a serious threat to strike Guam and the nearby islands as a major typhoon on Friday morning (U.S. EDT.) The 8 am EDT Wednesday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) put Dolphin's winds at 105 mph, and the Japan Meteorological Agency estimated a central pressure of 965 mb. The latest 00Z Wednesday run of the European model and 06Z run of the GFS model show Dolphin passing within 50 miles of Guam between 06 - 09 UTC Friday (2 am - 5 am U.S. Eastern Daylight Time.) Satellite loops show that Dolphin significantly increased in organization on Wednesday morning, with an increase in the intensity and areal coverage of its heavy thunderstorms and formation of an eye. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near 29°C (84°F), and warm waters extend to great depth along Dolphin's track, giving it plenty of heat energy to draw upon for intensification. Wind shear has risen over the past day to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate through Friday. Dolphin should be able to intensify to Category 3 typhoon status by the time it reaches Guam, and may rapidly intensify, potentially affecting Guam as a Category 4 super typhoon. Guam will likely be the last land area Dolphin will affect, as a strong trough of low pressure should recurve the storm to the north out to sea late this weekend. The GFS model is also advertising that a tropical disturbance near the Equator in the waters southeast of Guam (95W) will organize early next week into a tropical depression, but it is too early to be confident of this prediction.


Figure 1. Typhoon Dolphin as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at approximately 03 UTC May 13, 2015. At the time, Dolphin had sustained winds of 85 mph, and a "pinhole" eye with a diameter of only six miles. Image credit: NASA Worldview.

The last typhoon on Guam: thirteen years ago
The last typhoon to strike Guam was Typhoon Pongsona, which hit the island as a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds on December 8, 2002. Sustained winds of 144 mph with gusts to 173 mph were recorded on the island, and Andersen Air Force Base was in the eye for two hours. The lowest pressure on Guam was 935 millibars, making Pongsona the third most intense typhoon to strike the island (the others: a 1900 typhoon with a 926 mb pressure, and Typhoon Karen of 1962, at 932 mb). With strong building standards and experience from repeated typhoon strikes (six typhoons in the previous ten years), there was one death from flying glass, and 193 injuries. Damage was over $700 million (2002 US$, $918 million 2015 USD), making Pongsona among the five costliest typhoons on the island. The typhoon also caused heavy damage on Rota and elsewhere in the Northern Mariana Islands, and as a result of its impact, the name Pongsona was retired. The last tropical storm to affect Guam was Tropical Storm Saomai of August 2006, which had 50 mph winds when it moved over the island.


Figure 2. Super Typhoon Pongsona as seen on December 8, 2002. At the time, Pongsona was at its peak strength--Category 4 with 150 mph winds. The image shows Pongsona over the Northern Mariana Islands in the western Pacific Ocean approaching Guam. Image credit: Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA/GSFC - http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=4761

A record early start to typhoon season
May is exceptionally early for Guam to be worrying about a typhoon; according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, no typhoon has affected the island in the months of February through June since record keeping began in 1945 (one January storm, Typhoon Roy of 1988, did pass near Guam in January, though.) Guam's early typhoon worries this year reflect how crazy-busy the early part of the 2015 typhoon season has been. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) gave Tropical Storm Dolphin its name on May 9. According to statistics from the Japan Meteorological Agency's database from 1951 - 2015 maintained by Digital Typhoon, this was the earliest appearance on record of the Northwest Pacific's seventh named storm of the year. The previous record was May 19, 1971 (Carla.) Usually by this time of year, just two named storms have appeared; the seventh storm of the year typically doesn't form until the third week of July. According to Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, the seven storms so far in 2015 have been unusually strong: Northwest Pacific Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was at record high through May 11 (78.1), just ahead of the old record of 77.7 in 1957. The early and violent start to 2015 typhoon season is due, in part, to exceptionally warm ocean temperatures in the typhoon breeding region between 5 - 10°N near the Date Line. These temperatures have been over 2°C (3.6°F) above average in recent months, due to a strengthening El Niño event.

Storm chaser Jim Edds is on Guam, and will be documenting the impact of Dolphin on the island via his Twitter feed.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Yikes! Yet another land-falling typhoon before we even get to June! Did somebody once say something about the years ending in 5 being busy years???
Typhoon Dolphin appears to be struggling a bit this morning. The pinhole eye that has been evident since yesterday evident is cloud-covered, and the overall convective organization of the system seems ragged. Mid-level dry air seems to be the culprit.



Quoting 2. Gustavike:

Climate patterns over Cuba and southeastern United States during May and June. For more details you can see my post about it on the following Link


How many times are you going to post the same link?
Storm totals

Record Report

Statement as of 2:16 am CDT on May 13, 2015

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Houston/hobby Airport...

A record rainfall of 3.44 inches was set at Houston/hobby Airport
yesterday. This breaks the old record of 2.63 set in 2012.
Thanks doc!
I'm currently watching the attempts to break the heat record for the day or the month in southwestern Europe (readings up to 41C = more than 105F in southern Spain right now) and northwestern Africa. Moreover explosive conditions in northeastern France and the Alps with all this warm tropical air - strong storms may start to fire very soon! - BTW, in northeastern Germany we had some more tornadoes yesterday afternoon, but thankfully none of them very harmful.


Source. Click to enlarge.


Current predicted Cape values and Lifted Index.


Current airmasses, showing the advection of warm tropical air over Spain into France and Italy.

Edit: Live lightning radar. First strikes in northeastern France now, many already in the northern and eastern Alps.
Dolphin

Quoting 4. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Typhoon Dolphin appears to be struggling a bit this morning. The pinhole eye that has been evident since yesterday evident is cloud-covered, and the overall convective organization of the system seems ragged. Mid-level dry air seems to be the culprit.




How many times are you going to post the same link?


Newly found Cuban capitalism. The guy is trying to direct traffic to his blog for ad revenue. He just made my list...

4. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:51 PM GMT on May 13, 2015

Typhoon Dolphin appears to be struggling a bit this morning. The pinhole eye that has been evident since yesterday evident is cloud-covered, and the overall convective organization of the system seems ragged. Mid-level dry air seems to be the culprit.

Greetings 13. Something tells me it is temporary..It will work it out quick with the eye reformation...Dolphin will grow quickly.....And likely very large..
Thanks Jeff...
Pretty solid bow echo type setup getting ready to move into the Austin metro area. I'm downtown so we are waiting for this thing to come through in the next 20 to 30 mins.

Quoting 5. Patrap:


TORNADO WARNING
TXC131-131645-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0022.150513T1613Z-150513T1645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1113 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL DUVAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...


* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

* AT 1113 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR FREER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREER AND SEVEN SISTERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Maybe good news for some islands tho...982 MB,s is not overly strong, and folks there shouldnt have too much of a problem if that pans out. I should add looks whats behind Dolphin...West Pack is spinnin them out..

Quoting 14. calkevin77:

Pretty solid bow echo type setup getting ready to move into the Austin metro area. I'm downtown so we are waiting for this thing to come through in the next 20 to 30 mins.




Wow, enough with the tornadoes already
Stay safe
Quoting 18. txjac:



Wow, enough with the tornadoes already
Stay safe


Thanks Tx. The warning that was issued to the SW of here near Dripping Springs was cancelled about a half hour ago. A few of the ISDs here are having their students shelter in place until the system moves through as a precaution. I'm more concerned of the straight line winds + heavy rain fall with this system...ergo perfect setup to bring down a few trees seeing how saturated the ground already is around here.
Quoting 16. hydrus:

Maybe good news for some islands tho...982 MB,s is not overly strong, and folks there shouldnt have too much of a problem if that pans out. I should add looks whats behind Dolphin...West Pack is spinnin them out..



When you go to the West Pacific domain, click on "Lower Dynamics," and then "Surface Pressure and 10m wind" for the full-res GFS forecasts.

I see the retention ponds in Wilmington are nice and full from all the rain this weekend, maybe some wildlife made their way into a new home ;), does happen at times especially after lots of rain.

And if Dolphin manages to strengthen this week hopefully it passes north of Guam, the convection looks better on the right side as is common for most northern hemisphere cyclones.
Any significant help to L Travis from the recent rains? This one looks a little S too, though some oranges to NW may help if make it to drainage area. Hopefully the deluge will move from TX drought areas to CA's, eventually.

Low 40 dew pts in S C IL, around 60 now after mid 40s start. Press up to 30.4s", light easterlies w/ mid teen gusts. Had about 3" total from weekend, surprisingly 2" from Sun/Mon. Thought about another inch until saw gauge at lunch Mon.
23. JRRP
uff!!
Good day all. I'm back. Been busy with other stuff.

Dolphin may hit Guam head-on.
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1048 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

TXC131-311-131700-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.W.0041.000000T0000Z-150513T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MCMULLEN TX-DUVAL TX-
1048 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MCMULLEN AND NORTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTIES...

AT 1045 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 3 TO 8
INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN JUST TO THE EAST OF LOMA ALTA AND
SEVEN SISTERS. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS IS A DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUATION!


SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
FREER...SEVEN SISTERS...LOMA ALTA AND ROSITA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
I believe Typhoon Dolphin will be close or reach Super Typhoon status.. Maybe another record breaker.

Thanks for the update Dr Masters.......West Pacific pretty active!

California storm still on track for Thu-Fri time frame. Forecasters sticking to their guns on rain amounts......now, all it has to do is rain!








AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
852 AM PDT WED MAY 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED COOL TODAY WITH MARINE LAYER CLOUDS DISSIPATING. A COLD
LATE-SEASON STORM MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY
WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE STORM WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DRY AND
SLIGHT WARMING...BUT STILL COOL CONDITIONS...OVER THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUED COOL WITH A DEEP MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS IN THE COAST AND VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED PATCHY MARINE LAYER
STRATUS OVER THE COAST...VALLEYS AND SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. THE MARINE LAYER
INVERSION HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 3200 FEET DEEP...ACCORDING TO THE 12Z
MIRAMAR SOUNDING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STRATUS IS
CLEARING OUT QUICKLY. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE
MORNING BEFORE SURGING BACK INLAND TONIGHT AND DEEPER...WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE LAYER DRIZZLE. COOLING WILL OCCUR
TODAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS FALLING TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A DOUBLE-BARRELED WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE FIRST WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE SECOND MORE POTENT WAVE SWINGING AROUND
THE CORE OF LOW AND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING. THE
FIRST SHORT-WAVE HAS ABOUT 0.85 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH
IT...IN ADDITION TO INSTABILITY...WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -21 TO
-24 DEG C...CAPES RISING TO 200-300 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX -1 TO -3
DEG C...WHICH IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY IN BETWEEN THE WAVE PASSAGES THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR THE SECOND SHORT-WAVE...NAM12 SHOWS INSTABILITY
INCREASING AGAIN TO 200-400 J/KG OF CAPE...LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -3
DEG C...AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -21 DEG C. AT THE SAME
TIME...DYNAMICS LOOK STRONGER WITH THIS SECOND WAVE...AS A NICE VORT
MAX MOVES THROUGH. LOCAL WRF REALLY HITS SAN DIEGO COUNTY HARD WITH
CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH THIS SECOND WAVE.

CURRENT FORECAST STORM TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS...
COAST AND VALLEYS: 0.80 TO 1.25 INCHES
MOUNTAINS: 1.00 TO 2.25
DESERTS: 0.15 TO 0.30 INCHES

THROUGHOUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE WET-BULB ZEROES
HANGING AROUND 6000-6500 FEET...HOWEVER LOCALLY THE SNOW LEVELS
COULD REACH 5500 FEET UNDER HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SAN BERNARDINO AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...BUT SNOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO HIGH FOR A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

CURRENT FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...
6000 TO 6500 FT...1 TO 3 INCHES
6500 TO 7500 FT...3 TO 6 INCHES
ABOVE 7500 FT.....6 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY UP TO 12 INCHES.

DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL TO -15 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FINALLY...LOOK
FOR WEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE FIRST WAVE PASSING
THROUGH...WITH ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING TO 10
MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO LAS VEGAS LATE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. IT WILL
LIKELY BECOME FAIRLY BREEZY IN THE VALLEY AND COASTAL AREAS WITH THE
SECOND WAVE FRIDAY MORNING...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
UNFAVORABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHOWERS TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
SOME WARMING...BUT STILL COOL...FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE AREA FOR MONDAY...BUT IT IS PRETTY
WEAK WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO
COULD OCCUR IN SOME OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAIN AREAS...BUT
LIKELY NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT. HOWEVER...IT DOES LOOK TO BRING SOME
COOLING FOR MONDAY.

MODELS SHOWING SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS SOME RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
ONLY BRING DAY-TIME HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT STILL BELOW. ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY MOVE DOWN OVER THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY
BRINGING SOME MORE PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
Texas today..




Texas 3 day..



Quoting 22. dabirds:

Any significant help to L Travis from the recent rains? This one looks a little S too, though some oranges to NW may help if make it to drainage area. Hopefully the deluge will move from TX drought areas to CA's, eventually.

Low 40 dew pts in S C IL, around 60 now after mid 40s start. Press up to 30.4s", light easterlies w/ mid teen gusts. Had about 3" total from weekend, surprisingly 2" from Sun/Mon. Thought about another inch until saw gauge at lunch Mon.


As of yesterday Lake Travis was up about a foot past the 630 ft level. They are going to reopen a public boat ramp for the first time in a few years. This system is definitely going to reach the lake but how much is still TBD. Absolutely pouring in downtown Austin atm.
Quoting 12. hydrus:


4. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:51 PM GMT on May 13, 2015

Typhoon Dolphin appears to be struggling a bit this morning. The pinhole eye that has been evident since yesterday evident is cloud-covered, and the overall convective organization of the system seems ragged. Mid-level dry air seems to be the culprit.

Greetings 13. Something tells me it is temporary..It will work it out quick with the eye reformation...Dolphin will grow quickly.....And likely very large..


Man that typhoon is huge... quite a dangerous scenario in play for Guam.

Typhoon Dolphin should be renamed to Typhoon EpicWhale, that's one massive storm.
That little eye of Dolphin filling?

removed
Thanks Dr. The bigger picture with Dolphin; you can see the upper level shear working against the NW quadrant but the core is very well insulated.............Not good for Guam if the shear relaxes on approach: looks to me like a potential disaster in the making.

Quoting 30. hydrus:

Texas today..




Texas 3 day..






Good to see some color in the Golden State!
Dolphin? Who's in charge of naming Pacific storms, these days? It'll be Turtle, Bluewhale and Giantsquid next.
Guam is basking in the warmest waters in Dolphin's path..

Quoting 22. dabirds:

Any significant help to L Travis from the recent rains? This one looks a little S too, though some oranges to NW may help if make it to drainage area. Hopefully the deluge will move from TX drought areas to CA's, eventually.

Low 40 dew pts in S C IL, around 60 now after mid 40s start. Press up to 30.4s", light easterlies w/ mid teen gusts. Had about 3" total from weekend, surprisingly 2" from Sun/Mon. Thought about another inch until saw gauge at lunch Mon.


Can check it here.

http://travis.uslakes.info/Level.asp


12Z GFS
Quoting 36. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Good to see some color in the Golden State!
No doubt..Some regions are way short of rainfall .
Quoting 37. yonzabam:

Dolphin? Who's in charge of naming Pacific storms, these days? It'll be Turtle, Bluewhale and Giantsquid next.

Name has been contributed by Hongkong: Link (scroll down the article).
Quoting 32. LostTomorrows:



Man that typhoon is huge... quite a dangerous scenario in play for Guam.

Typhoon Dolphin should be renamed to Typhoon EpicWhale, that's one massive storm.
Latest GFS had it at 982 near Guam..It is only my opinion, but I believe Typhoon Dolphin will be considerably lower than that when it nears. A little crow on my plate would be nice
Here is the latest blurb from the Pacific News Service (link below) on Dolphin; good link to check for news (assuming they do not lose power) on Friday and in the aftermath for Guam over the weekend:

http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/guam/item/3664-t yphoon-dolphin-could-hit-guam-directly


 "We're gonna expect a direct hit possibly over Guam on Friday,” said NWS forecaster Landon Aydlett. Aydlett tells PNC that typhoon Dolphin is on a track that will bring it through the Marianas with a very good chance of hitting Guam directly but this could all change. "We're still looking at a time frame of Friday afternoon or Friday evening as a passage pretty close to Guam it could be just South of Guam to maybe as far North as the Rota channel that still changes every several hours with a new forecast track,” said Aydlett.

 Different computer models show it doing different things. Some show it going as far North as Tinian while other models show it going South of Guam. The NWS takes all of these models and creates an average that gives them a forecast of the most likely track which right now brings it right near the tip of Southern Guam.

 So in the least case scenario Guam will get tropical storm winds and in the worst case scenario we'll see category two strength winds. "If we do take a direct hit with forecast winds of 105 miles per hour that would be category two,” said Aydlett adding, "There will be significant damage to weaker structures wooden frame buildings and stuff tin roofs they'll peel back trees will take pretty heavy damage. Palm fronds, coconuts, it will be probably the heaviest damage we've seen in at least a decade.”

 The typhoon force winds are close to the center so if the storm is North of Rota we would get tropical storm strength winds but if it passes near the Southern tip of Guam we would still feel typhoon strength winds. Either way Aydlett says to plan for the next category up which means plan for a category three to be safe. "Hope for the best plan for the worst,” said Aydlett.

 

Quoting 20. TropicalAnalystwx13:


When you go to the West Pacific domain, click on "Lower Dynamics," and then "Surface Pressure and 10m wind" for the full-res GFS forecasts.


Forgive me 13, but I cannot make that out other than the 937 MB...Is that 937 on or over some island.
Quoting 35. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Dr. The bigger picture with Dolphin; you can see the upper level shear working against the NW quadrant but the core is very well insulated.............Not good for Guam if the shear relaxes on approach: looks to me like a potential disaster in the making.


Yep. If this tightens up fast, Guam will have a serious typhoon.
Quoting 20. TropicalAnalystwx13:


When you go to the West Pacific domain, click on "Lower Dynamics," and then "Surface Pressure and 10m wind" for the full-res GFS forecasts.




937 mb, a storm the size of Dolphin we're looking at what 140 mph sustained possibly going right over Guam, maybe even a Super Typhoon.

That has to be the worst part about living on an island like Guam, riding them out is basically your only option of staying safe. At least the Keys and the OBX can ride US 1 and 64 [very slowly] out of town, respectively.
Crazy flooding rain in south Houston last night

http://blog.chron.com/weather/2015/05/national-we ather-service-warns-of-a-dangerous-flood-situation -later-today/

"We already saw last night what our atmosphere was capable of. A trained spotter reported 11.98 inches of rain between 9 p.m. and midnight on Tuesday in the Bay Knoll neighborhood, near Highway 3 and El Camino Real in Clear Lake. That exceeds the 500-year level for a 3-hour rainfall by 2 inches.

After a reprieve this morning the atmosphere is recharging just in time for the next series of atmospheric disturbances to move through later today.


Rainfall rates of 3 inches per hour will be possible this afternoon as these storms move into the Houston region, and additional tornado activity is possible."

Driving in this morning to work I didn't know the situation (live on the other side of town) and ended up driving right through the worst hit areas around Highway 3 from Beltway 8 south to Bay Area Blvd.

Here is video of the worst flooding I saw on the highway , reports of much worse in surrounding neighborhoods. This is Hwy 3, Clear Lake City Blvd to Pineloch :

Link

Also someone lost a new Tesla (ouch) to the flooding at an intersection in Webster, TX

Link

Needless to say I am leaving work early today and working from home to avoid the 3-inch per hour forecast possible rains later this afternoon!
Quoting 47. win1gamegiantsplease:



937 mb, a storm the size of Dolphin we're looking at what 140 mph sustained possibly going right over Guam, maybe even a Super Typhoon.

That has to be the worst part about living on an island like Guam, riding them out is basically your only option of staying safe. At least the Keys and the OBX can ride US 1 and 64 [very slowly] out of town, respectively.
I must have looked at the wrong islands. I thought Dolphin was west of Guam before reaching 937 MB,s.
Here's a little close up @48HR for the 12Z GFS on Dolphin:

Quoting 49. hydrus:

I must have looked at the wrong islands. I thought Dolphin was west of Guam before reaching 937 MB,s.


I saw your post that you referred to, Guam should be the bigger island just to the south of the center in that frame. Southwest of that is Palau (closer to the Philippines) , to the north are the Mariana Islands (Saipan, Rot, and one other one that I can't name) which take a direct hit according to this. If that pans out Guam might get lucky, the right side looks most impressive as of right now. However it is a large storm and if it does drop that low it might be more symmetrical where Guam will feel some sort of impact no matter what.
@48 goavs4

"Needless to say I am leaving work early today and working from home to avoid the 3-inch per hour forecast possible rains later this afternoon! "

I will be doing the same myself ...between flooded streets and crazy drivers its just not worth being out in it if you dont have too
From Associate Press via ABC News


Rain that continues to lash parts of Texas has led to flooding and water rescues in the Houston area, while officials in North Texas are taking the unusual step of releasing water from lakes to avoid banks from being breached.

The National Weather Service issued flash flood warnings Wednesday for many regions. The Houston suburb of Clear Lake received 11 inches of rain over a three-hour period Tuesday.

Houston fire spokesman Jay Evans said Wednesday that 20 people, most of them motorists, needed to be rescued from high water. He says some intersections have 5 feet of standing water.

Parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area have received 10 inches of rain over the past week, with more expected. Lakes long-parched by drought have overflowed with water in recent days.

Link
Quoting 53. txjac:

From Associate Press via ABC News


Rain that continues to lash parts of Texas has led to flooding and water rescues in the Houston area, while officials in North Texas are taking the unusual step of releasing water from lakes to avoid banks from being breached.

The National Weather Service issued flash flood warnings Wednesday for many regions. The Houston suburb of Clear Lake received 11 inches of rain over a three-hour period Tuesday.

Houston fire spokesman Jay Evans said Wednesday that 20 people, most of them motorists, needed to be rescued from high water. He says some intersections have 5 feet of standing water.

Parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area have received 10 inches of rain over the past week, with more expected. Lakes long-parched by drought have overflowed with water in recent days.

Link
over 5 an hour..that is rare even in the tropics.
Good Afternoon class!

Pop Quiz time.

Hurricane Quiz: Are you prepared for a tropical storm?

Good luck.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAY 2015 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 11:29:36 N Lon : 152:32:40 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.3mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.8 2.0

Center Temp : -15.1C Cloud Region Temp : -52.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.33 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.76 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 12:05:24 N Lon: 152:44:24 E

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 103km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.1 degrees






Someone has image microwave Dolphin? I wonder how it is reshaping the eye.



Oh, i found....Who wanna do any comments?

Houston






37. yonzabam


Dolphin? Who's in charge of naming Pacific storms, these days? It'll be Turtle, Bluewhale and Giantsquid next


close.. the next name is Kujira which means whale.
Quoting 59. Grothar:

Houston






scary looking pics.
For the history buffs, if the core-eye wall of Dolphin passes over Tinian Island, and flattens portions of it, then it would be ironic as this is the Island where the B-29s that dropped the atom bombs on Japan (Hiroshima and Nagasaki) flew out of before they flattened portions of those two cities..................................

North Field was the departure point of the 509th Composite Groupbombers Enola Gayand Bockscar, carrying the atomic bombsnamed Little Boyand Fat Manthat were dropped on Hiroshimaand Nagasaki.[6]

Hopefully, the authorities will evacuate and/or help provide shelter for the folks on Tinian, before the storm gets there, if it heads in that direction.
Can anyone name me any other tropical cyclone developed a pinhole eye, disappeared and then reappeared? I can not remember the name but I know it has happened before!

Quoting 61. hydrus:

scary looking pics.
amazing how much damage just rain can do...a lot of damage there once that water recedes..and the clean up omg..all the homes and cars etc.

Quoting 61. hydrus:

scary looking pics.

Yep,  my post (@48) is on the last page but I have dashcam footage from this morning driving in that area where the worst (~12 inches of rain in 3 hours) hit last night,  from post 48:


"Here is video of the worst flooding I saw on the highway , reports of
much worse in surrounding neighborhoods. This is Hwy 3, Clear Lake City
Blvd to Pineloch :

Link

Also someone lost a new Tesla (ouch) to the flooding at an intersection in Webster, TX

Link "
Microwave images of the Typhoon Dolphin hahahahahahaha
Quoting 40. tampabaymatt:



12Z GFS

I like the looks of that 10 day precip map a lot better than the one from yesterday for the Orlando area. Looks like our rainy season has/is in the process of beginning. No dramatic, abrupt start this year, just easing into it. It is a hot one today.
Quoting 67. pablosyn:

Microwave images of the Typhoon Dolphin hahahahahahaha



Obligatory Link
I cannot imagine..11 inches of rain in just 3 hours
Quoting 60. HadesGodWyvern:



close.. the next name is Kujira which means whale.


Gojira was Godzilla's real name.
Lots of weather advisories out in Texas today. As Grothar showed lots of flooding in the Houston area.



Quoting 58. pablosyn:

Oh, i found....Who wanna do any comments?





1. For meteorologists.
2. 6 hour summary and analysis.
Typhoon (TY) 07w (dolphin), located approximately 576 nm
east-southeast of andersen AFB, Guam, has tracked west-northwestward
at 11 knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared
satellite imagery (eir) shows the system has maintained a 10-nm eye
as convective banding deepened and wrapped tighter into the low level
circulation center. The initial position is based on the eir loop
with high confidence. The initial intensity of 90 knots is based on
congruent Dvorak estimates from pgtw, knes, and rjtd. Upper level
analysis shows the system is south of the ridge axis in an area of
low vertical wind shear and good radial outflow with a strong
equatorward bias. The cyclone is tracking along the southeastern
periphery of an elongated subtropical ridge (str) to the north.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. There is no significant change to the forecast philosophy from
the previous prognostic reasoning message.
B. In the near to mid-term, TY 07w will continue to track
generally west-northwestward under the influence of the str. The
system is forecast to continue strengthening as favorable upper
level conditions, in addition to warm along-track sea surface
temperatures, persist. By tau 72, the system will have reached 120
knots.

C. In the extended Taus, TY Dolphin will begin to round the break
in the str caused by a transitory mid-latitude trough digging in from
the northwest and passing through Japan. This poleward track will
expose the cyclone to increased upper level wind flow associated with
the mid-latitude westerlies. This initial exposure will enhance the
poleward outflow and trigger rapid intensification - reaching super
typhoon intensity by end of forecast. Dynamic model guidance remains
in very tight agreement, lending high confidence in the jtwc track
forecast.
Quoting 70. LargoFl:

I cannot imagine..11 inches of rain in just 3 hours
It happened here before in 2006. I think it was in February or March where we had a rain band that trained across the area. It flooded at my school and there was also flooding in St. Petersburg. We were under a Tornado Watch as well.
Quoting 70. LargoFl:

I cannot imagine..11 inches of rain in just 3 hours


That happened in Pinellas in 2006 I believe, in February of all months, 8 to over 12 inches of rain fell in 3-4 hours across parts of Pinellas County, I think Largo had 6 or 7 inches, Pinellas Park I think was the jackpot, roof collapses and flash flooded roads and neighborhoods.
At my place we had 9.4 in 3 hours or so from that event, the flooding was nuts, there was event a salt water small in the air during those thunderstorms, likely from strong updrafts and gusts winds churning up the ocean.
Quoting 70. LargoFl:

I cannot imagine..11 inches of rain in just 3 hours


So that's over 3 inches per hour, that's the pace of rainfall that occurred on Reunion during their world record 24-hour rainfall total back in the 1960's.

Rain Forecast is now for .92 out here which would be a decent result.
At least the forecast doesn't say "in sea east of the Philippines" when it passes west of 140W.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #59
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (1507)
3:00 AM JST May 14 2015
==========================
In Truks (Chuuk) Waters

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Dolphin (965 hPa) located at 10.9N 153.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 12.5N 148.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 14.4N 142.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 16.3N 138.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Okinotori-shima waters
Quoting 73. TropicalAnalystwx13:





I agree, but...reminds me yesterday...He has a chance
Quoting 75. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It happened here before in 2006. I think it was in February or March where we had a rain band that trained across the area. It flooded at my school and there was also flooding in St. Petersburg. We were under a Tornado Watch as well.


lol, that's funny, we both replied about the same event, and I'm not surprised, that event would be hard to forget. Still to this day that was the weirdest weather I've seen here, because it was like a tropical cyclone rain band stuck over us, yet is was February. If I recall correctly that set a record for the highs precipitable water in February at Ruskin, I know it was over 2 inches. The lightning and strong winds were also incredibly impressive, we lost power from power lines coming down and we had down trees in the area too.

If it happened in August from a tropical wave, or a stalled tropical storm, while it would have been impressive still, I wouldn't be shocked as massive rain events in a short period are relatively common here of course in the rainy season, but to happen in February is just weird.

It was like tropical storm Debby but for even a shorter duration. We had 11 inches from Debby at my place in about 10 hours, though some places to the north it was even worse, some places had over 20 inches in Pasco and Hernando counties.
That was a crazy summer because the rest of June was also very wet, and July August and September all had rainfall averages a decent amount above average, which of course means flooding since summer rainfall averages are already really high and Debby had saturated everything early in June.
Quoting 75. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It happened here before in 2006. I think it was in February or March where we had a rain band that trained across the area. It flooded at my school and there was also flooding in St. Petersburg. We were under a Tornado Watch as well.
The most I have ever witnessed in S.W. Florida was 15.50 in 8 hours June-23, 1995 from a stalled frontal boundary. Many roads were washed out and had to be rebuilt, along with a couple canal bridges. I guess Hurricane Jeanne would be second, but the wind prevented me from measuring the rain.
Quoting 82. hydrus:

The most I have ever witnessed in S.W. Florida was 15.50 in 8 hours June-23, 1995 from a stalled frontal boundary. Many roads were washed out and had to be rebuilt, along with a couple canal bridges. I guess Hurricane Jeanne would be second, but the wind prevented me from measuring the rain.


The most rain I'e seen ..not sure how much an hour, or how many hours it took ...but Allison with the 40-45" totals was unbelievable. I thought it was never going to stop
Quoting 40. tampabaymatt:



12Z GFS


As you've noticed, the GFS can't make up it's mind between weather the sea breeze thunderstorm pattern will become more west to east dominant or remain east to west. It's been flip flopping dramatically each run. Given that I wouldn't put much confidence beyond the near term. It's probably because the GFS us struggling with handling a summer rainy season pattern this early lol.

I'm joking about that part, but it's inconsistency does make it hard to determine where thunderstorm movement will be beyond the short term.
Tornado warning up in the watch area.................Right on cue:
Valid WW Image
Outflow is improving on the west side...Hope thats not a trend....but it likely is...
Starting to reminds me Tomas in 2010:


Tomas 2010:


Dolphin needs to build a CDO immediately.
Quoting 76. Jedkins01:



That happened in Pinellas in 2006 I believe, in February of all months, 8 to over 12 inches of rain fell in 3-4 hours across parts of Pinellas County, I think Largo had 6 or 7 inches, Pinellas Park I think was the jackpot, roof collapses and flash flooded roads and neighborhoods.
At my place we had 9.4 in 3 hours or so from that event, the flooding was nuts, there was event a salt water small in the air during those thunderstorms, likely from strong updrafts and gusts winds churning up the ocean.


I'll never forget that day. I was working for a large financial company in St. Petersburg and it was completely flooded and we were stranded in the office for more than 48 hours. A lot of people's car was a total loss because they tried to drive home and the flood waters fried the car's computer system. To this day, I have never seen that much rain in such a short time period in my life. In February of all months!
Quoting 83. txjac:



The most rain I'e seen ..not sure how much an hour, or how many hours it took ...but Allison with the 40-45" totals was unbelievable. I thought it was never going to stop
I remember both Allison's from the news...

 Guam Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather RadioFlash Flood WatchStatement as of 5:17 AM GMT on May 14, 2015

Resent for web Page
corrected geographical references

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from this evening through
Saturday morning...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* the islands of Guam... Rota... Tinian and Saipan.

* From this evening through Saturday morning

* typhoon Dolphin will bring copious amounts of rain fall.
Numerical weather prediction models indicate at least 4
inches. E-trap shows up to 10 inches near the core of Dolphin.
Also... the gfs40 model reveals that some local areas could
see as much as 18 inches.

* Roads in poor drainage areas could become impassable. Houses
in low-lying areas could start taking on water.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued. If any storm drains near
you are clogged with debris... clean them out to minimize the
impacts of any flooding.



Stanko

This is pretty interesting stuff, I didn't expect the Pacific typhoon season to be off to such a fast start this year. Let's just hope that Dolphin passes by rather fast so it won't last very long. Oh and by the way Doc, although the NOAA tracks website might say otherwise, there actually was one category 4 typhoon that hit Guam during the month of May before, which was Typhoon Pamela on May 21, 1976. It was one of the costliest storms to hit the island, and next Thursday will be the 39th anniversary of it's landfall on Guam. If Dolphin reaches that strength before hitting the island, it would be the second cat 4 to hit the island during May, after Pamela.
Quoting 68. HurrMichaelOrl:


I like the looks of that 10 day precip map a lot better than the one from yesterday for the Orlando area. Looks like our rainy season has/is in the process of beginning. No dramatic, abrupt start this year, just easing into it. It is a hot one today.


I think Mother Nature forgot Spring here in C FL and instead gave us Summer as it has really been hot nearly everyday since March 1st. Outside of 2 to 4 cool days since March 1st it has been a hot 74 days. Also only 3.65" since March 1st at my location with nothing so far in May. However 1.12" fell yesterday in Altamonte Springs but not at my place.
Quoting 67. pablosyn:

Microwave images of the Typhoon Dolphin hahahahahahaha



You got me laughing with this one, good joke my friend!
Quoting 82. hydrus:

The most I have ever witnessed in S.W. Florida was 15.50 in 8 hours June-23, 1995 from a stalled frontal boundary. Many roads were washed out and had to be rebuilt, along with a couple canal bridges. I guess Hurricane Jeanne would be second, but the wind prevented me from measuring the rain.


17" here in just over 8 hours from TS Fay.


Highest winds forecast so far are 130 KTS, gusts-160 KTS...
The LLC of 95W is just above the equator, I estimate it at 1 degree N-LAT, judging by satellite, pretty far south. I remember about 2 days ago when it was moving due south. Strange how these systems develop out here in the W PAC. Going to have to watch this one carefully in the future.





Quoting 98. hydrus:



Highest winds forecast so far are 130 KTS, gusts-160 KTS...


Looks like the first eye-wall collapsed, and Dolphin is starting back up from scratch. That said, it has excellent structure and outflow, and should get rolling again soon.
Quoting 84. Jedkins01:



As you've noticed, the GFS can't make up it's mind between weather the sea breeze thunderstorm pattern will become more west to east dominant or remain east to west. It's been flip flopping dramatically each run. Given that I wouldn't put much confidence beyond the near term. It's probably because the GFS us struggling with handling a summer rainy season pattern this early lol.

I'm joking about that part, but it's inconsistency does make it hard to determine where thunderstorm movement will be beyond the short term.


GFS is actually trended with the Euro and the reason for this shift is the breakdown of this upper level ridge starting this weekend and come early next week a WNW flow is expected to take over and the Easternside of FL will turn stormy starting either Monday or more than likely Tuesday. Some storms could be severe next week as 500mb temps are expected to get quite cool maybe -12C.
Orlando

Quoting 97. StormTrackerScott:



17" here in just over 8 hours from TS Fay.
Thats a lot of rain..The night we had the heavy rain, it started around 2:30 a.m. The thunder was intense so I couldnt sleep. I had to be to work at 6 a.m. so at 4:30 I just decided to stay up. I went to the porch to check the rain gauge, and notice our entire yard was under water. This may not sound so bad except we have the second highest piece in the county, the highest being the bordering pasture. This was at 4:30 a.m. I decided to go to work anyway and see if the roads were passable. Horse creek Bridge was actually not flooded ( to my amazement, for its usually always the first to go ) but half mile past that, it has been completely washed out...Needless to say, I never made it to work, and it took 4 days till I found a way to get there. Numerous roads in Charlotte and Desoto counties were inaccessible.


Tampa Bay area
Quoting 99. 882MB:

The LLC of 95W is just above the equator, I estimate it at 1 degree N-LAT, judging by satellite, pretty far south. I remember about 2 days ago when it was moving due south. Strange how these systems develop out here in the W PAC. Going to have to watch this one carefully in the future.




Has that look...
Quoting 104. StormTrackerScott:

Orlando




I wonder why our local mets are showing such higher temps for Tampa than Orlando the next two days.
Quoting 97. StormTrackerScott:



17" here in just over 8 hours from TS Fay.


Since we're on the subject of high rainfall rates, I'm glad I wasn't in Wilmington at the time during Hurricane Floyd. Over two feet of rain fell in Southport, and basically everything between I-95 and US 17 saw over a foot fall in one day or less. Floyd wasn't a slow mover, but he was large and a cold front moved in while he came ashore. We didn't get much of anything in High Point like we did during Fran.


My coworker snapped a pic of Shoal Creek in downtown Austin this afternoon behind our office. To put into perspective, the bottom of this creek bed is about 12 feet below the building. Not today it aint.
Quoting 108. tampabaymatt:



I wonder why our local mets are showing such higher temps for Tampa than Orlando the next two days.


Also notice your ran chances vrs ours early to mid next week as the pattern switches to a WNW or even a NW flow. That flow pattern is one that produces severe weather on our side of the state.

By the way easterly flow. Off shore flow keeping max temps higher by you.
Quoting 100. jeffs713:



Looks like the first eye-wall collapsed, and Dolphin is starting back up from scratch. That said, it has excellent structure and outflow, and should get rolling again soon.


I agree, the convective banding around the southern and western eyewall has wrapped around nicely compared to a few hours ago, looks like Dolphin was trying to wall itself from the dry air ahead of it and is now winning that battle.
Quoting 110. calkevin77:



My coworker snapped a pic of Shoal Creek in downtown Austin this afternoon behind our office. To put into perspective, the bottom of this creek bed is about 12 feet below the building. Not today it aint.


Damm! That water is moving fast too I bet as it looks like a narrow channel.
Quoting 32. LostTomorrows:



Man that typhoon is huge... quite a dangerous scenario in play for Guam.

Typhoon Dolphin should be renamed to Typhoon EpicWhale, that's one massive storm.


Or we can call it Typhoon Orca or Killer Whale, since technically a killer whale is a dolphin.
Typhoon 07W (Dolphin), # 7: Guam TCCOR 3 remains in effect

It’s looking more and more as if Dolphin, which has been upgraded to a typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, may make a direct hit: 4 p.m. Friday right over Big Navy and Hagatna, packing sustained 115-mph winds with 143-mph gusts.

After that, Dolphin is forecast to curve north and east; whether it will hit or miss Japan is still open to question. PST will keep a sharp eye on it. Expect an upgrade to TCCOR 2 sometime mid-Thursday afternoon.
Quoting 113. StormTrackerScott:



Damm! That water is moving fast too I bet as it looks like a narrow channel.


Its moving pretty quickly. Its normally just a trickle but when it gets going its known to move. Our offices flooded out last year and the water came up the embankment into our parking lot another 6 to 8 feet or so. Enough to wash away two of our dumpsters...never to be seen again. I'm just glad it was on a week night and no one parked their cars here over night. I'd hate to have my Camry end up in the GOM.

EDIT: Here is what the creek normally looks like just up the road on any given day:
Quoting 97. StormTrackerScott:



17" here in just over 8 hours from TS Fay.


I remember Fay. I welcomed the 13.5" at my house after what had been a somewhat dry summer up until that point. I wouldn't mind a repeat late this summer, albeit without the flooding in some areas. Better yet, a repeat of the 2012 rainy season. Soaking wet from mid-May until mid-October.

I hope the pattern develops to favor the east coast of FL at some point this summer, though I am grateful that the west coast is getting plentiful rain, as they seem to miss out more often than not. It looks like areas well to our north are getting robust thunderstorm coverage today.
Dry air over Cuba, but strong storms occur in the afternoon. Seasonal climate patterns over Cuba and southeastern United States during May and June, are discussed in my post of GeoMet, on the following
Link
Quoting 115. HadesGodWyvern:

Typhoon 07W (Dolphin), # 7: Guam TCCOR 3 remains in effect

It’s looking more and more as if Dolphin, which has been upgraded to a typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, may make a direct hit: 4 p.m. Friday right over Big Navy and Hagatna, packing sustained 115-mph winds with 143-mph gusts.

After that, Dolphin is forecast to curve north and east; whether it will hit or miss Japan is still open to question. PST will keep a sharp eye on it. Expect an upgrade to TCCOR 2 sometime mid-Thursday afternoon.
Howdy Hades. I believe she will miss Japan. Even if the storm gets that far west and north, water up there isnt very warm.
Quoting 119. hydrus:

Howdy Hades. I believe she will miss Japan. Even if the storm gets that far west and north, water up there isnt very warm.


they actually mean Iwo To (Iwo Jima) for Japan.
Quoting 120. HadesGodWyvern:



they actually mean Iwo To (Iwo Jima) for Japan.
I see..They may get something. I didnt realize the island was that far east..



Quoting 104. StormTrackerScott:

Orlando




I see Orlando finally cooled down. When I was there a couple of weeks ago it was mid to high 90s in the Day.

I am SOOOOO glad at the moment I am back in Alaska. upper 30s at night and upper 50s to mid 60s in the day. Very clear out now too.
The weather here in Tennessee has been excellent....Many here were ready for some good weather...It was a long winter.
ya.. the southeastern islands of Japan are hard to see on maps.

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Quoting 71. Grothar:



Gojira was Godzilla's real name.


Is Is Is?
128. etxwx
Since we are in severe weather season, here are some links that might be useful for folks wanting to learn some storm spotter basics and beyond:

SKYWARN Spotter Training from MetEd
Lots more topics here at their main education and training link. it's all free, you just need to register on the website.

Check youtube for local area video classes (search for SKYWARN spotter training plus your location). Lake Charles LA recently put their basic spotter class online, as have many others. Norman OK NWS has some particularly good educational modules on youtube.

Broadcastify has audio of various public safety and SKYWARN nets. Click on a state to find a list of counties and go from there.
Impressive burst of convection again at the core.................Hoping for Guam that the Western side does not fully wrap around by Friday (at the latest):


Quoting 108. tampabaymatt:



I wonder why our local mets are showing such higher temps for Tampa than Orlando the next two days.
A moderate easterly flow will allow will advect cooler air in off the atlantic while the western peninsula away from the immediate coast will bask in stagnant air until the east coast sea breeze moves in late in the afternoon. 
Quoting 96. 882MB:



You got me laughing with this one, good joke my friend!


Quoting 71. Grothar:



Gojira was Godzilla's real name.


I guess ゴッドジラ (goddojira) instead of ゴジラ (Gojira) would just look silly. =P
Quoting 67. pablosyn:

Microwave images of the Typhoon Dolphin hahahahahahaha


Obrigado
Wilmington was really hot today, my thermometer read 87, the high according to wunderground was 90. Humidity not as bad as it could be though, currently a decent seabreeze and mid 70's so I'll be outside before the hockey game starts.

On the subject of sports, it's been a bad year for UNC fans, lost two coaches, a beloved alum, and facing academic scandal. Not to mention the national championship going to that school over there in Durham. My facebook newsfeed was pretty dicey after that from both sides. I swear the hornets and hurricanes could move again and the panthers could be crappy again but as long as there's the ACC nobody would turn an eye.
Folks on Guam and nearby islands are feelin a bit anxious....i know i would be.
Quoting 136. hydrus:

Folks on Guam and nearby islands are feelin a bit anxious....i know i would be.


probably a little disappointed that there is work and school today, (Thursday).
Last few frames show new eyewall forming.

Quoting 137. HadesGodWyvern:



probably a little disappointed that there is work and school today, (Thursday).
There very well may not be any school come Monday, but plenty of work to pick up the pieces..I hope they can escape the worst of it.
Late evening update on post #8:

Concerning the heat in Spain: Highest temperatures today were recorded in one of the Canary islands with around 108F, uff! This is more than even German tourists would ask for, I guess, lol!

El aeropuerto de Lanzarote marca la maxima del dia en Espana, con 42,4 grados
En el Archipielago tambien se ha registrado la segunda mayor temperatura del pais, en la localidad grancanaria de Tasarte
13/05/2015 - 21:53h

Scorching weather in Spain sees hottest May day in 30 years
El Pais, 13 MAY 2015 - 14:36 CEST (this article was published ahead of the highest readings of today though)

Southern Germany and other countries in the Alps (esp. Austria) weren't bored by tonight's weather, to say the least. And the show of severe weather, accompagnied by large hail, is still going on. Nothing extremely catastrophic, as far as I can see until now, but remarkable for this early in the year. Here some saved current loops:


IR loop showing the development of several MCS.


Tracks of lightning in the last two hours.

Two hail videos from Freiburg in southwestern Germany, where I've once spent three years of my life as a student (and often wasn't able to work because of the fascinating view out of my window at the slopes of Black Forest towards the storms coming in from France ...)


Ah, the precious German cars ... Some dents in the sheet?


Quoting 137. HadesGodWyvern:



probably a little disappointed that there is work and school today, (Thursday).


Not a whole lot of time to prepare for it either.
142. 882MB
Latest images are also showing an expanding CDO. Wont be long before an eye pops out later on today.



Quoting 140. barbamz:




I haven't read anything Dutch in a while, but I knew without looking at the thumbnail that hailstorm is "hagelonweer" similar to Hagelunwetter. And how do you post thumbnails? I just know how to copy a URL and post the link.


anyone have any idea why I cant find this image anymore on tropical tidbits... it used to be one of the first things you saw when you clicked on the Analysis tab, but now it just shows a surface analysis for the Atlantic. Thankfully I had a link, and it still works, but I cant find it when I just go on Levi's site.


This past 10 days and next few weeks to be the first sustained period of average to below average in California for a while. There was 1 or 2 very cold days in So Cal late last december, but I can't remember any other cold, or even cool period in the past 12 months.
NWS Tiyan Guam
Typhoon DOLPHIN (07W)
==========================

A TYPHOON WATCH is in effect for Guam.. Rota.. Tinian.. and Saipan

Tropical Storm Watch for Fananu, Chuuk is now cancelled
Quoting 147. sanflee76:


Scott, are you sure about that?? I don't think anyone got 17" in 8 hours except maybe a coastal area. I live in Sanford not far from you and we got 11" in one 24 hour period and 17" three day storm total. Maybe on the coast but certainly not Longwood/sanford area. A little fibbin you're doing there i suspect


Easily verifiable:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=fay
Quoting 101. StormTrackerScott:



GFS is actually trended with the Euro and the reason for this shift is the breakdown of this upper level ridge starting this weekend and come early next week a WNW flow is expected to take over and the Easternside of FL will turn stormy starting either Monday or more than likely Tuesday. Some storms could be severe next week as 500mb temps are expected to get quite cool maybe -12C.


Sure but there has been overall notable model inconsistency, that may happen but it's not a high enough confidence forecast to say for sure. Models have really bounced around in regards to overall prevailing sea breeze convection movement.
Quoting 143. win1gamegiantsplease:



I haven't read anything Dutch in a while, but I knew without looking at the thumbnail that hailstorm is "hagelonweer" similar to Hagelunwetter. And how do you post thumbnails? I just know how to copy a URL and post the link.

Our WU-member Neapolitan (thanks once again!) has created an useful site to convert the modern "embed code" of youtubes into the code which can be posted in here right away into the textbox (without using the image button):

http://www.iwantsomeproof.com/youtubeoldembedcode rizer.asp
151...

Quoting 151. sanflee76:


That graphic is storm total so its obvious this did not happen in an 8 hour period. Fay was a very long lived storm here in Central Florida. We had 3 days of heavy rainfall. Like i said it rained 11" in a 24 hour period and 17" storm total over 3 days


Yes, but that total would be included in the storm totals. One could easily do a cursory check to see if the volumes are within the proper ranges.
I remember watching Fay Monday night and thinking...meh. Woke up Tuesday morning, looked at sat. loops and thought holy @#$%! Had jury duty that Tuesday. Tropical storm watches or warnings were already up and they didn't cancel court till early afternoon. Terrible drive home through all that rain.
Quoting 154. sanflee76:



Again, that graphic is storm total, not 8 hours, how many times do i have to say this?


27 to become official.
Indeed ..Thank you Nea.
Here a remarkable (!) capture of sprites in Hungary today, recently published with other very good photos on Severe Weather Europe.


Sprites above the MCS over Hungary this evening, captured by Martin Popek!

Good night with this from Germany which is to enjoy a holiday tomorrow (Ascension Day and as well: Father's Day, when males would flock together and roam in the countryside with a lot of beer in their barrows ;-)
Very impressive looking, already stronger than last year by a lot on the same time.
Quoting 160. Gearsts:

Very impressive looking, already stronger than last year by a lot on the same time.

Yep...heck, it even looks like a Nino....Bout time really...:)
Quoting 159. NoobDave:


Html loops won't work in here. You'd have to chose the "Animated gif" version, copy the code with a right click on the loop and paste it into the image button field:

Quoting 144. nwobilderburg:



anyone have any idea why I cant find this image anymore on tropical tidbits... it used to be one of the first things you saw when you clicked on the Analysis tab, but now it just shows a surface analysis for the Atlantic. Thankfully I had a link, and it still works, but I cant find it when I just go on Levi's site.


You would have to ask Levi that question

Quoting 160. Gearsts:

Very impressive looking, already stronger than last year by a lot on the same time.


Umm no it is not same strength but diffrence is that this covered a larger area last year was just a bit smaller

Quoting 162. barbamz:


Html loops won't work in here. You'd have to chose the "Animated gif" version, copy the code and paste it into the image button field:


thks a lot, I was just about to ask how to post it. They said it s getting stronger...but
Quoting 164. NoobDave:
thks a lot, I was just about to ask how to post it. They said it s getting stronger...but



Watching the isolation of the center of "Dolphin" this precious song came into my mind:

I'm driving around in my car
I'm driving too fast
I'm driving too far
I'd like to change my point of view
I feel so lonely
I'm waiting for you
But nothing ever happens and I wonder ...
Isolation is not good for me ....

.... I'm turning turning turning turning turning around
And all that I can see is just another [and so on) ...



One of my most favorite songs ever. You know it in the US at all, lol?
And before I get banned, I'm really out now; have a good night, folks!
Quoting 163. wunderkidcayman:



You would have to ask Levi that question


Umm no it is not same strength but diffrence is that this covered a larger area last year was just a bit smaller
This year is stronger vs last year.



I like BLUE!
This is some really Bad Mojo about to explode n the West Pac.

ESPI is climbing at a ridiculous rate. Yesterday 1.12, today 1.23.
Quoting 168. Patrap:

This is some really Bad Mojo about to explode n the West Pac.




Mojo Rising?
Quoting 170. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Mojo Rising?


itsa Mojo rising'
Loco Roco?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAY 2015 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 11:33:18 N Lon : 152:19:08 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 987.9mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.6 3.6

Center Temp : -70.4C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 103km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.0 degrees




And here she comes into Sooo Cal! Fingers crossed!


West Africa looks great tonight ! Does anyone know why there is no rainbow image available since April ?
Quoting 176. HurricaneHunterJoe:

And here she comes into Sooo Cal! Fingers crossed!





That would be a classic winter storm, but looks absolutely spectacular for mid-May.
Quoting 158. barbamz:

Here a remarkable (!) capture of sprites in Hungary today, recently published with other very good photos on Severe Weather Europe.


Sprites above the MCS over Hungary this evening, captured by Martin Popek!

Good night with this from Germany which is to enjoy a holiday tomorrow (Ascension Day and as well: Father's Day, when males would flock together and roam in the countryside with a lot of beer in their barrows ;-)


Happy Holidays. I found out on Father's Day (USA) that I was going to be a Father for the first time. Of course that was 15 years ago.
Quoting 168. Patrap:

This is some really Bad Mojo about to explode n the West Pac.



Convection appears to be warming for now, but it aint gonna be long before it explodes again.
I thought the only thing that rose was a bad moon?...
Or was that in 1969 ...
Quoting 181. JrWeathermanFL:

I thought the only thing that rose was a bad moon?...
Or was that in 1969 ...


It was '68, because in '69 you had to turn around.
Quoting 172. Patrap:



itsa Mojo rising'
yep...Dolphin entrained some dryer air, so the strengthening phase has halted, but should switch back to a strengthening flag by tomorrow. Good thing too. This could mean the difference between a cat-3 or a cat-5...
Help.

Can anyone tell me why I am only see about a third of the graphics posted? They just won't load. I'm missing all the good stuff.
Quoting 184. Grothar:

Help.

Can anyone tell me why I am only see about a third of the graphics posted? They just won't load. I'm missing all the good stuff.


Hey GRO! How goes it?

Probably the internet connection between you and the wunderground servers. Happens all the time for me up here in the last frontier. And then all of a sudden it works great, like the servers in China finally cached the page.
186. txjac
Quoting 184. Grothar:

Help.

Can anyone tell me why I am only see about a third of the graphics posted? They just won't load. I'm missing all the good stuff.


You are the good stuff Gro! lol
Quoting 184. Grothar:

Help.

Can anyone tell me why I am only see about a third of the graphics posted? They just won't load. I'm missing all the good stuff.
me too...Keeps tellin me I need a plug in, but doesnt say which. Edit..For instance, I cant see Barbs last posted pic...
Quoting 186. txjac:



You are the good stuff Gro! lol
Quoting 186. txjac:



You are the good stuff Gro! lol
They call him Gro because he has the good stuff...?...I can see the relevance immediately.
189. txjac
Quoting 188. hydrus:

They call him Gro because he has the good stuff...?...I can see the relevance immediately.


You have some pretty good stuff yourself there hydrus ...
Quoting 187. hydrus:

me too...Keeps tellin me I need a plug in, but doesnt say which. Edit..For instance, I cant see Barbs last posted pic...


You mean the one with the sprites coming down on a black background? I can't see it either.
Nice forecast for Dededo, Guam as Dolphin rakes across the islands. This from NWS office in Tiyan.

Today
Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight
Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday
Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 81. Very windy, with a north northeast wind 23 to 33 mph becoming northwest 105 to 115 mph. Winds could gust as high as 140 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night
Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before midnight, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 75. Very windy, with a west southwest wind 100 to 110 mph becoming south 21 to 31 mph. Winds could gust as high as 140 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
West Pack: Typhoon Dolphin is weak right now but it should make a comeback soon. It will be near Guam tommorow and will be causing some typhoon conditions. It may intensify a little before arriving there.

Read more
Quoting 190. Grothar:



You mean the one with the sprites coming down on a black background? I can't see it either.
My old computer was ten years old and worked almost flawlessly. I get a new one and the first week it does not work right..One of the best reasons to keep cars from the 60,s, they may break, but a 12 year old can fix it in less than an hour.....long as its not a freeze plug....:)
194. JRRP
Quoting 178. TimSoCal:



That would be a classic winter storm, but looks absolutely spectacular for mid-May.
It could be a tornado with Sharks raining down from it in downtown L.A :).Watch out Tim!
Quoting 191. Chucktown:

Nice forecast for Dededo, Guam as Dolphin rakes across the islands. This from NWS office in Tiyan.

Today
Partly sunny, with a high near 85. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight
Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Breezy, with a northeast wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Friday
Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 81. Very windy, with a north northeast wind 23 to 33 mph becoming northwest 105 to 115 mph. Winds could gust as high as 140 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night
Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before midnight, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 75. Very windy, with a west southwest wind 100 to 110 mph becoming south 21 to 31 mph. Winds could gust as high as 140 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
100 mph sounds like a shout or a scream through trees and powerlines....140 mph or more sounds like a howling roar with a 747 thrown in.....Something I learned from Charley and Jeanne.
It could be the lack of MJO pulse the cause of the weakening of Dolphin?


Quoting 168. Patrap:

This is some really Bad Mojo about to explode n the West Pac.




I do not understand the "bad mojo"...the brown line?
Quoting 198. pablosyn:

It could be the lack of MJO pulse the cause of the weakening of Dolphin?



That map indicates a very strong upward motion, not downwelling..Incidentally, upwelling of a different sort may be happening since other cyclones have stirred the waters up a bit.
Quoting 201. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Noul disintegrated entirely. Should not affect U.S. weather pattern..Dolphin could actually shift the jet a bit when time comes.
Quoting 196. washingtonian115:

It could be a tornado with Sharks raining down from it in downtown L.A :).Watch out Tim!


The very reason I moved back 60 miles East of Los Angeles.....
Quoting 203. PedleyCA:



The very reason I moved back 60 miles East of Los Angeles.....
I was told that the twisters can actually carry them much further than 60 miles..Therefore you will still be at risk for shark watches and warnings.
Quoting 202. hydrus:
Noul disintegrated entirely. Should not affect U.S. weather pattern..Dolphin could actually shift the jet a bit when time comes.


Yup its already showing up hydrus on the GFS & Euro as the Eastern trough is coming back.

Major crash going on with the SOI. 30 day value now nearing -13. Value was -11.5 earlier today.



Also WWB now in Nino 3.4 so expect Nino 3.4 to rise at a good rate the rest of this week into next week.

Quoting 189. txjac:



You have some pretty good stuff yourself there hydrus ...
I am a student before anything..As long as I can keep learning, I will do just that..
Quoting 187. hydrus:

me too...Keeps tellin me I need a plug in, but doesnt say which. Edit..For instance, I cant see Barbs last posted pic...

Could be your java settings. May have to be enabled for this website.
From JB. Notice what he is saying though as I pointed this out too last week.

Is the Strongest El Nino Ever Brewing?

May 13 05:37 PM


That is what the CFSV2 is saying. In addition, the positioning of the warmth is a bit different from the Super Ninos of the past. For sake of comparison we will look at the 97-98 el nino

JTWC 03:00 UTC warning of Typhoon Dolphin at 90kts.Track now goes between Guam and Rota.

TCCOR 2 to be in effect.

Condition of Readiness 2 will be declared at 4 p.m., and typhoon shelters will open at that time, according to the government of Guam's Joint Information Center.

COR2 means damaging winds are expected within 24 hours.

Guam Department of Education has cancelled after school programs today. Public schools as well as Department of Defense Education Activity schools will be closed tomorrow.

The Government of Guam will be closed tomorrow.

The typhoon is continuing to strengthen and maximum sustained winds are expected to increase to about 115 mph by the time it makes its closest point of approach late Friday afternoon to early evening, the JIC release states.

for more..
My yard would love this forecast as no rain so far for May at my location.

Quoting 202. hydrus:

Noul disintegrated entirely. Should not affect U.S. weather pattern..Dolphin could actually shift the jet a bit when time comes.


JMA appears to be still monitoring NOUL

LOW (994 hPa) located at 46.0N 157.0E or in sea east of Kurils is moving east northeast at 15 knots,


??? Did I miss something?
I did just drive 16 hours to North Georgia from the Keys due to 2 major wrecks... I-75 North of Gainesville was shut both ways. Had to crawl up 441. Usually takes about 13 hours. 57 degrees here,,, nice change!!!
I think I missed a comment. What is this about Scott and 17"?
Quoting 215. ChillinInTheKeys:



??? Did I miss something?
I did just drive 16 hours to North Georgia from the Keys due to 2 major wrecks... I-75 North of Gainesville was shut both ways. Had to crawl up 441. Usually takes about 13 hours. 57 degrees here,,, nice change!!!


comment 97 concerning the rainfall amount from Tropical Cyclone Fay that stalled over Florida.
Quoting 209. StormTrackerScott:

From JB. Notice what he is saying though as I pointed this out too last week.

Is the Strongest El Nino Ever Brewing?

May 13 05:37 PM


That is what the CFSV2 is saying. In addition, the positioning of the warmth is a bit different from the Super Ninos of the past. For sake of comparison we will look at the 97-98 el nino


I'm really curious to see what impacts this will have to the AHS, severe weather in the south during winter time, and exactly how long this El Nino will last if it lasts into next year or we see something similar to '97-'98.
Quoting 208. daddyjames:


Could be your java settings. May have to be enabled for this website.
I thought I completed the Java updates, but may have missed some. I was not able to download Adobe Flash Player either...I am still working on that.


Edit: I do enjoy Scott's presence & enthusiasm here!
Quoting 205. StormTrackerScott:



Yup its already showing up hydrus on the GFS & Euro as the Eastern trough is coming back.


That would be good for us in the sense of cooler than normal weather during the late spring, which can be brutally hot and muggy here. The air just stagnates in the valleys, and is stifling...miserable...very uncomfortable..Etc..
Quoting 218. sanflee76:



ding dong guess its time to chime in here personal disputes will be dealt according too the blog rules refrain from these retorts
Drought in Australia; an end to drought in Brazil; poor crops across Asia; record global temperatures. If you start hearing about these in the next year, remember this news from the week:

El Niño is back.

FORECASTERS: THIS COULD BE A BIG EL NINO YEAR


That's the word from scientists who have been watching the tropical Pacific. Surface temperatures there are going up, winds are shifting and that could mean big weather-related changes around the world over the next year or so.

El Niño is part of a climate cycle in the tropical Pacific known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation; it flips back and forth every few years between the cool La Niña and the warm El Niño phases. In the El Niño phase, ocean surface temperatures rise, easterly trade winds along the equator slow or even reverse and the planet in general tends to warm up.

Scientists expected El Niño last year, but it was a no-show. But this year, American researchers reported in March that a weak El Niño had finally set in. Now Japanese and Australian scientists say it's definitely here, and likely to be much bigger than the American predictions — with global implications.

Maps of typical jet stream locations and patterns during La Niña (left) and El Niño (right) winters. Patterns are similar in spring, but are often weaker. Based on original graphics from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.Maps of typical jet stream locations and patterns during La Niña (left) and El Niño (right) winters. Patterns are similar in spring, but are often weaker. Based on original graphics from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Credit: NOAA
In parts of Brazil, it could mean a lot more rain — which could be a good thing, with the capital São Paulo and other parts of the country in the midst of a wrenching drought. In Australia, the effect may well be the opposite: drier and hotter weather in many areas, possibly exacerbating existing water shortages.

That heating and drying out could stretch from Australia all the way around to eastern Africa and southern Asia, possibly cutting into harvests of key crops like rice, soybeans, corn and palm oil from India to China to Indonesia.

In the United States, El Niño often brings rain to California and the South, raising hopes that a return this year would bring drought relief to the parched West Coast. That seemed unlikely when scientists identified the weak El Niño in March, figuring it would be too small to have much of an impact. But the prospects for substantial rain could be improved with the revised forecast.

Meanwhile, the global forecast is for higher overall temperatures, quite possibly even a record.

Until last year, the hottest year on record was 1998, which saw a big El Niño. After that, the next warmest was 2010, another El Niño year. Last year broke both of those records by a hair, which was a bit of a surprise — and a concern to many, because it wasn't an El Niño year.

But with the overall temperature trend sharply up — the 10 hottest years on record have all come since 1998 — scientists are anticipating that the warmth contributed by El Niño may well bring another new global record, and perhaps put to rest the contention by climate change deniers that global temperatures have plateaued.


It's settled. Climate Change is here and there is already damage done. Now to take mitigation measures and protect our resources.
pls remove the quoted content personal disputes should be kept out of the main blogs keep it in mail or on own blogs
Quoting 213. HadesGodWyvern:



JMA appears to be still monitoring NOUL

LOW (994 hPa) located at 46.0N 157.0E or in sea east of Kurils is moving east northeast at 15 knots,
15 kts.? That high up it should be doin about 50 knots...It was a Super Typhoon, not totally surprised there is something to track..Hurricane Mitch comes to mind. I watched the mountains rip it to what appeared to be nothing, but rose out of the Bay of Campeche and whacked us in S.W.Florida in the middle of the night...I swear it was like a demon beast that had to have the last word....That monster killed 20,000 people.

07w gotten zapped by something not working out too well at the moment

231. JRRP
Friday and Saturday have the potential to be significant severe weather days as a strong upper-level trough ejects into the central Plains. In many ways, the setup this weekend is very similar to the setup last weekend. Plenty of moisture should be in place. The question becomes how unstable the atmosphere can become in the wake of morning crapvection. I wouldn't rule out a few strong tornadoes, although I don't think this will be a significant outbreak.


Quoting 229. hydrus:

15 kts.? That high up it should be doin about 50 knots...It was a Super Typhoon, not totally surprised there is something to track..Hurricane Mitch comes to mind. I watched the mountains rip it to what appeared to be nothing, but rose out of the Bay of Campeche and whacked us in S.W.Florida in the middle of the night...I swear it was like a demon beast that had to have the last word....That monster killed 20,000 people.




DEVELOPED LOW 986 HPA
AT 53N 179W SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS

this other low slowed it down.
Quoting 230. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

07w gotten zapped by something not working out too well at the moment




Dry air penetrating.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NWS Tiyan Guam
900 AM CHST THU MAY 14 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO NEAR TARAWA AT ABOUT 1.0N 174.0E. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS DISTURBANCE COULD FURTHER DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
It appears the core has managed to keep the dry air walled off for the time being. It is a good bet Guam will get a bad typhoon, but not the 937 MB typhoon forecast by the GFS earlier today...It cannot be ruled out completely tho. The core is tighter than I expected it to be after the ERC, so it could strengthen quick..

237. 882MB
95W





Wow...Dolphin got completely nuked by dry air. It may still strengthen a bit before passing Guam but it's some good news at least.
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING 132334Z
METOP-A IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, PGTW SATELLITE FIX
AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TYPHOON DOLPHIN REMAINS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY THE
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TYPHOON 07W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN ELONGATED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS, A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO
THE NORTH WILL CAUSE A BREAK IN THE STR, MODIFYING AND SLIGHTLY
SHIFTING TY 07W NORTHWESTWARD. IN ADDITION TO THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE,
LEADING TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE MODIFIED STR IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD
AND REORIENT TO THE EAST ALLOWING TYPHOON 07W TO TURN POLEWARD. THIS
POLEWARD TRACK WILL EXPOSE THE CYCLONE TO INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL WIND
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, TRIGGERING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AND REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 96
.

CONCURRENTLY, TY 07W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND SLOWLY
BEGIN ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT FURTHER TRACKS INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT;
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK. THE CURRENT
JTWC TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF GUAM TO REFLECT
THIS CHANGE AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
Still 70 knots (80 kts) with gusts of 100 knots from Japan Meteorological Agency at 12:00 PM JST update.
Quoting 238. Huracan94:



Wow...Dolphin got completely nuked by dry air. It may still strengthen a bit before passing Guam but it's some good news at least.
Nuked or not, they still have it forecast to be a Super Typhoon...Thankfully after it passes Guam and nearby islands..
Quoting 238. Huracan94:



Wow...Dolphin got completely nuked by dry air. It may still strengthen a bit before passing Guam but it's some good news at least.

until the sun comes up over here anyway
it should regain with a vengeance
Quoting 241. hydrus:

Nuked or not, they still have it forecast to be a Super Typhoon...Thankfully after it passes Guam and nearby islands..
it may begin on the approach and passage wrap right up RIS
Quoting 242. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


until the sun comes up over here anyway
it should regain with a vengeance


It's 2:00 PM over there.


949 hPa in the model
Quoting 243. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it may begin on the approach and passage wrap right up RIS
Certainly cant rule it out. I am sure the Mets their know it too...
Quoting 78. PedleyCA:


Rain Forecast is now for .92 out here which would be a decent result.


Still got my fingers crossed Ped........hoping for no wimpout! Local news have been running some model runs of between 2"-3" of rain at some locations. Meanwhile the NWS saying .80-1.25 Coast and Valleys, 1-1.75 in mountains and .25 or less in the deserts. NWS starting to mention end of next week, maybe more rain........Let's see how we do with the first one!
oh, wait. thought that said "over there"
Quoting 241. hydrus:

Nuked or not, they still have it forecast to be a Super Typhoon...Thankfully after it passes Guam and nearby islands..
I'm just hoping the RI holds off at least until after it passes by Guam. We do NOT want another disaster like Cyclone Pam.
Quoting 248. HadesGodWyvern:

oh, wait. thought that said "over there"
no it did not you seeing things
Quoting 9. JRRP:




Would LOVE to see current El Nino peak about Jan-Feb 2016 time frame with about +3 degree celsius anomaly across all regions.........turn Cali into mud jello and wait for the big earthquake! C'mon El Nino......don't wuss out!
Quoting 238. Huracan94:



Wow...Dolphin got completely nuked by dry air. It may still strengthen a bit before passing Guam but it's some good news at least.



Hopefully.
Quoting 252. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Would LOVE to see current El Nino peak about Jan-Feb 2016 time frame with about +3 degree celsius anomaly across all regions.........turn Cali into mud jello and wait for the big earthquake! C'mon El Nino......don't wuss out!
Sure...Anything can happen..Maybe if Nino can shove some of that warm water further south of the equator, we will have tropical cyclones in the S.E. Pacific off of Chile....I remember when they said there had never been a tropical cyclone recorded in the South Atlantic...We know how that turned out.
A good night to all...Prayers to those families who lost loved ones in the train crash.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Special Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST May 14 2015
=============================

A tropical low situated to the west of the Solomon Islands is expected to move westwards into the Papua New Guinea area of responsibility today and should develop further over the next couple of days.

The system will remain very far offshore during the forecast period and does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
========================
Friday: Very Low
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Low
Quoting 252. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Would LOVE to see current El Nino peak about Jan-Feb 2016 time frame with about +3 degree celsius anomaly across all regions.........turn Cali into mud jello and wait for the big earthquake! C'mon El Nino......don't wuss out!


Hey let's not go to the earthquake now. Flooding rains are enough without that.
Quoting 257. TimSoCal:



Hey let's not go to the earthquake now. Flooding rains are enough without that.


Just figured to get all the bad stuff outta the way at once.....LOL
259. 882MB
Quoting 256. HadesGodWyvern:

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Special Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST May 14 2015
=============================

A tropical low situated to the west of the Solomon Islands is expected to move westwards into the Papua New Guinea area of responsibility today and should develop further over the next couple of days.

The system will remain very far offshore during the forecast period and does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
========================
Friday: Very Low
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Low


99P



Quoting 258. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Just figured to get all the bad stuff outta the way at once.....LOL


Yeah. San Andreas is due, unfortunately. 1857 was a long time ago.
Something following Dolphin



Guam is in TCCOR 2 since it's now 4:00 PM ChST
264. vis0
Testing 1,2,3 Testing a,b,c ((((((((((sound of feedback))))))

since there are more important things (wPac HURRs, Severe, more ATL action  =:-0 )  than, that i can finally post on other WxU blogs besides my own (6 days i couldn't post anywhere but my blog, kept getting that authorization button) ALL I CAN SAY IS IF ONE would like a nice free image viewer(s) to view your hundreds of satellite images try my comment #90 on my blog pg #2. sar2401 might like the last 2 img viewer programs mention on THAT pg.
Do not reply as i only talk to myself.
 No i don't ,Yes you do, No i don't, Yes you do, No i don't ,Yes you  :-#  ...(ooww)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #63
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (1507)
15:00 PM JST May 14 2015
==========================
In Truks (Chuuk) Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Dolphin (965 hPa) located at 12.0N 151.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
============
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
====================
24 HRS: 13.9N 145.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
48 HRS: 15.9N 140.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Mariana Islands
72 HRS: 18.3N 137.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Okinotori shima waters
According to the forecasters, storm is still a go for Thu-Fri in Sooo Cal......Please let them be correct!

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FXUS66 KSGX 140458
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT WED MAY 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTH PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...TAPERING FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY
FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL FALL IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE DESERTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FAIR
AND COOL WEATHER WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH A COMBINATION OF LOW
CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER MANY AREAS. THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE OREGON COAST
WITH A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN
CAIFORNIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
MOSTLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME OROGRAPHICS
IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UP TO ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN THE
FIRST ROUND. PRECIP SHOULD PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON...AND 500 MB TEMPS
WILL FALL TO ABOUT -23 C DURING THE DAY AND BRING UNSTABLE ENOUGH
CONDITIONS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
IN THE DESERTS/DESERT SLOPES DUE TO THE PRESSURE/THERMAL
GRADIENTS...THOUGH THE WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. OVERALL...MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR THE THURSDAY
FORECAST.

THE MAIN ACTION WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. RAIN SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THE POSITION OF
THE LOW...THE INSTABILITY AND NEARLY AN INCH OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AT THE COAST. RAINFALL OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH COULD HAPPEN FRIDAY
MORNING OVER MANY AREAS FROM THE MOUNTAINS WEST TO THE COAST. STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR OROGRAPHICS...THOUGH THE WRF
AND OTHER MODELS HAVE INDICATED SOME SORT OF FRONT STRETCHING EAST-
WEST OVER NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND THE COASTAL WATERS...SO THIS
COULD BE THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 2 INCHES...
QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR MID-MAY. THERE WILL BE SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH UP TO ABOUT 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE THERE...WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. TEMPS
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
IN SOME INLAND AREAS FRIDAY.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AFTER A VERY
WEAK RIDGE SATURDAY FOR SOME WARMING...TROUGHING WILL DOMINATE OVER
THE WEST COAST MOST OF NEXT WEEK AND KEEP TEMPERATURS BELOW NORMAL
WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING AREAS OF NIGHT/MORNING STRATUS
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS. SO FAR...THE MODELS KEEP PRECIP NORTH OF THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.
Nope not buying CFSv2 nino forecast

CFSv2 certainly hyping this El Niño

Lol even CFSv2 is disagreeing with its self

Same model same time

One maxes out at 2 the other maxes out at 3




I still say both too high
269. flsky
I get that on my kindle. Doesn't affect android or pc.
Quoting 184. Grothar:

Help.

Can anyone tell me why I am only see about a third of the graphics posted? They just won't load. I'm missing all the good stuff.
Quoting 255. hydrus:

A good night to all...Prayers to those families who lost loved ones in the train crash.
ditto on that..todays news says 7 died so far.............
el nino? even the models are confused. time to watch the western carib.
First large bands approaching Guam and Rota.

275. yoboi
The United States hasn’t experienced the landfall of a Category 3 or larger hurricane in nine years – a string of years that’s likely to come along only once every 177 years, according to a new NASA study.


The current nine-year “drought” is the longest period of time that has passed without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. since reliable records began in 1850, said Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York.

Link
After Dophin coughed she is breathing fire again. Interesting dynamics at play here:

Good morning and - wow! - look at the photos below! At least two tornadoes happened last night in the outbreak of severe weather in southern Germany (see posts #8 and #140). One in the southern part of Black Forest, the other one (probably an F3) north of Augsburg (the Swabian part of Bavaria) which caused heavy damage in the adjacent neighborhood of Stettenhofen and the village of Affing with 178 buildings affected, some of which are now uninhabitable; seven people suffered from some smaller injuries.


Source wetteronline.de

Stettenhofen:

From the wetteronline photo gallery of the damage in Stettenhofen. Photo: Bjoern Stumpf via WTINFO tornado research project

Affing:

From Meteo Europe. Photo Katja Roederer, originally in the newspaper website from "Augsburger Allgemeine".
Quoting 277. barbamz:

Good morning and - wow! - look at the photos below! At least two tornadoes happened last night in the outbreak of severe weather in southern Germany (see posts #8 and #140). One in the southern part of Black Forest, the other one (probably an F3 or even stronger) north of Augsburg which caused heavy damage in the adjacent towns of Stettenhofen and Affing.


Source wetteronline.de

Stettenhofen:

From the wetteronline photo gallery of the damage in Stettenhofen. Photo: Bjoern Stumpf via WTINFO tornado research project

Affing:

From Meteo Europe. Photo Katja Roederer, originally in the newspaper website from "Augsburger Allgemeine".
That looks like EF-2, low end EF-3....And they dont get many tornadoes.
We have heat temp recordings up to +6/C above previous records for the month of May in Spain.
41/C in Seville near me and nearly 43/C in the Canary islands.
Generally running about +12/C above average.

Saharan dust in the skies today.
Good Morning Folk; the two latest RAMMB shot for Dolphin; pretty serious situation unfolding for Guam. That empty western quadrant from yesterday has filled in and the convection has wrapped all the way around the core.  Some dry air is still getting entrained but as noted yesterday, if the shear drops as it approaches Guam tomorrow, it could continue to intensify over very warm SSTs



Quoting 279. PlazaRed:

We have heat temp recordings up to +6/C above previous records for the month of May in Spain.
41/C in Seville near me and nearly 43/C in the Canary islands.
Generally running about +12/C above average.

Saharan dust in the skies today.


Eric Blake retweeted
Met Office @metoffice · 2h 2 hours ago
Several Spanish May records were broken yesterday with a top temperature of 41.2 °C recorded in Cordoba
Noting that the local news over there is currently reporting that the storm is tracking to the North of Guam....Lets hope that trend continues:

Typhoon Dolphin Now Tracking Slightly North of Guam

Simpson says the latest track has typhoon Dolphin passing between Guam and Rota in the Rota channel. "There has been a tendency for it to lift a little bit North with time so the next twelve to twenty four hours are going to be critical for just figuring out exactly where it's going to go through the Marianas,” said Simpson. However, Simpson points out that earlier in the week it was tracking well South of Guam. Then a couple days later it was directly over the Southern tip then at one point it was passing nearer to the center of the island and now it's tracking North of Guam.


Maximum sustained winds for Dolphin are currently at 105 miles per hour but they are expected to be as strong as 120 miles per hour or greater once Dolphin gets to the Marianas.

"Once you get winds over 60 miles per hour you start causing damage. The roofs start getting blown away and there's severe damage to trees, power lines and other structures. So anytime winds are over 60 mph your going to have some damage and when you get up around 100 miles per hour there's going to be severe damage,” said Simpson.


If it continues on this track and goes between Guam and Rota, Guam will get mostly tropical storm strength winds which will begin picking up tomorrow morning.

It may have some dry air interaction, but the outlfow looks almost perfect. From Joint Typhoon Center...



For meteorologists.
2. 6 hour summary and analysis.
Typhoon (TY) 07w (dolphin), located approximately 384 nm east-
southeast of andersen AFB, Guam has tracked west-northwestward at 13
knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery (msi) depicts tightly curved banding wrapping into the low
level circulation center (LLCC) obscured by flaring central
convection. The water vapor loop has shown a struggling convective
signature that has been pulling in dry air from the west. A 140638z
ssmis 91ghz microwave image shows deep convective banding along the
northern periphery with shallow banding along the southern periphery
and a developing microwave eye feature. The initial position is
based on the tightly wound LLCC in the msi loop and the microwave
image with good confidence. The initial intensity is held at 90
knots based on consensus current intensity estimates from pgtw and
knes. Upper level analysis indicates typhoon Dolphin remains in an
area of moderate (15-20 knot) southerly vertical wind shear (vws)
partially offset by excellent radial outflow with a poleward bias.

Typhoon 07w is currently tracking along the southern periphery of an
elongated subtropical ridge (str) to the north.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. There is no significant change to the forecast philosophy from
the previous prognostic reasoning message.
B. Over the next 06 to 12 hours, an upper level trough passing to
the north will cause a break in the str, modifying and slightly
shifting TY 07w on a northwestward trajectory. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain mostly unchanged, leading to a
gradual intensification rate. After tau 48, the steering str is
expected to rebuild and reorient to the east allowing typhoon 07w to
turn poleward. As the system begins to round the str axis, TY
Dolphin will gain an increased poleward outflow channel, associated
with the mid-latitude westerlies, leading to a maximum intensity of
130 knots by tau 72.

C. In the extended Taus, TY 07w will continue to round the str
axis and begin its weakening trend as it gains latitude where vws
increases and sea surface temperatures decrease. Dynamic model
guidance remains in good agreement and mostly unchanged from the
previous forecast. The current jtwc track forecast is positioned
close to the multi-model consensus with high confidence.//
Nnnn
Quoting 281. StormTrackerScott:



Eric Blake retweeted
Met Office @metoffice · 2h 2 hours ago
Several Spanish May records were broken yesterday with a top temperature of 41.2 °C recorded in Cordoba


That was on the Spanish news along with 15 other provincial cities setting new records.
The Canary Islands have had a lot of Easterly Saharan winds but they are a long way south of Spain and normally dont get extreame temps.
Running at about 39/C today, a bit over the 100/F mark so far.
And finally, the time scenario (their local time) for tomorrow: http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/guam/item/3690-t yphoon-dolphin-now-tracking-slightly-north-of-guam


"We're looking at something like 4 o'clock in the afternoon is when the center of it will go by but of course much before then the winds are going to be increasing and rainfall will increase probably even during the morning hours people should expect some gusty winds and heavy rain even Friday morning,” said Simpson. If Dolphin passes directly over Guam we could get some typhoon strength winds as early as noon with the strongest winds coming around the later afternoon to evening hours.
Very unusual El-Nino and one that could be stronger than 1997 but centered more in Nino 3.4 instead of Nino 1&2. Very strange and could effect this years Winter pattern across the US in an unusual way. Arctic Outbreaks combined with a streaming Southern Jet could mean major problems for many across the South.

WWB on par with 1997


However this is catching my attention as I am trying to figure out how this will effect the pattern across the US.
Quoting 282. weathermanwannabe:

Noting that the local news over there is currently reporting that the storm is tracking to the North of Guam....Lets hope that trend continues:

Typhoon Dolphin Now Tracking Slightly North of Guam
It is 47 nautical miles from Guam to Rota... if Typhoon Dolphin were to move into those waters, Guam would be on the weaker side and Rota the strongest winds.

Quoting 285. PlazaRed:


That was on the Spanish news along with 15 other provincial cities setting new records.
The Canary Islands have had a lot of Easterly Saharan winds but they are a long way south of Spain and normally dont get extreame temps.
Running at about 39/C today, a bit over the 100/F mark so far.


I swear we had some Saharan Dust here in FL too just a couple of days ago as there was a milky haze in the sky. Something we don't usually see until July or August.
At this rate we may not even see one storm across the MDR. Look at this Sea Surface set up across the Atlantic.

Easterly Winds here in FL have at time been tapping into this Saharan Dust. Image below!

Quoting 287. StormTrackerScott:

Very unusual El-Nino and one that could be stronger than 1997 but centered more in Nino 3.4 instead of Nino 1&2. Very strange and could effect this years Winter pattern across the US in an unusual way. Arctic Outbreaks combined with a streaming Southern Jet could mean major problems for many across the South.

WWB on par with 1997


However this is catching my attention as I am trying to figure out how this will effect the pattern across the US.

Strange sums it up pretty good.
Quoting 290. StormTrackerScott:
At this rate we may not even see one storm across the MDR. Look at this Sea Surface set up across the Atlantic.



Agreed. I would be looking for storm genesis to take place in or near US and or Western Carib areas this season.
Could be some hefty rain amounts across FL going into next week as the upper ridge breaks down. #Rainy Season.

Quoting 292. hydrus:

Strange sums it up pretty good.


Set up could be a good genesis for a Superstorm like what we had March 13th 1993. That is if we can get the 2 jets to phase.
Quoting 220. hydrus:

I thought I completed the Java updates, but may have missed some. I was not able to download Adobe Flash Player either...I am still working on that.

Which browser are you using?
Quoting 293. rmbjoe1954:



Agreed. I would be looking for storm genesis to take place in or near US and or Western Carib areas this season.


That sea surface depiction clearly indicates close to home development. Could be more dangerous this season compared to the last several seasons even though they were more active.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 281. StormTrackerScott:



Eric Blake retweeted
Met Office @metoffice · 2h 2 hours ago
Several Spanish May records were broken yesterday with a top temperature of 41.2 °C recorded in Cordoba

Valencia is under an extreme high temperature warning for today, with the official high expected to reach 44C / 111F.

Quoting 292. hydrus:

Strange sums it up pretty good.
Quoting 292. hydrus:

Strange sums it up pretty good.
That looks like JB's forecast to a tee.
Quoting 290. StormTrackerScott:

At this rate we may not even see one storm across the MDR. Look at this Sea Surface set up across the Atlantic.






I guess it'll all be in the Gulf this year.