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Typhoon death toll 800 and rising

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:13 PM GMT on December 02, 2006

The terrible toll wrought by Typhoon Durian is just beginning to be known, as rescue workers in the Philippines dig out victims from mudslides that buried at least eight villages at the foot of Mayon Volcano. The volcano, a 2460 meter-high mountain known for its perfect conical shape, had large areas of loose rock from a July eruption that became loosened by Durian's 8-12 inches of rain. The loose rock turned into torrents of liquid mud that swept down the mountain in the form of deadly mudslides, burying entire villages up to their rooftops. At least 800 people are dead or missing, and the head of the Philippines Red Cross estimated on Sunday that the toll would surpass 1000. Many hard-hit areas still unreachable and cut off from communications. Durian has surpassed Tropical Storm Bilis as the deadliest tropical cyclone to affect the globe in 2006. Bilis killed 662 people in July, primarily due to flooding in China.

The Manila Bulletin Online, said that some of the mud flows were up to 100 feet deep.

Figure 1. Topographic map of the Mayon Volcano region hard-hit by Typhoon Durian. Image credit: United Nations UNOSAT project, providing free maps for the humanitarian community.

Durian has unexpectedly strengthened to a Category 2 typhoon over the South China Sea, and may yet cause some trouble when it strikes Vietnam on Monday, most likely as a Category 1 typhoon. The View from the Surface blog has more info on the latest doings of Durian.

I hope that those of you looking for charities to donate to this year will join me in donating to the Red Cross International Response Fund to help out victims of Typhoon Durian. The Philippine National Red Cross does not take on-line donations, but there is contact information posted there for those who want to donate directly to the Philippine Red Cross.

I'll be back with an update on Monday.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

oh has goood likes on Mayon volcano so i can se how it is doing
Thank you for the information Doctor. Especially the Red Cross links.
This is a terrible disaster.
This was a village.

Up to 700 feared dead

Mayons deadly rampage puzzles local folk, execs

By Tony Bergonia, TJ Burgonio
Last updated 02:21am (Mla time) 12/03/2006

Published on page A1 of the December 3, 2006 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer

PADANG, Legazpi CityNo one will probably know for sure how many lives were swallowed up in the torrents of volcanic mud and rocks unleashed by Supertyphoon Reming (international name: Durian) but the man who should know, Philippine National Red Cross chief Sen. Richard Gordon, said the figure could reach 700.

Survivors of the disaster that struck this village of 1,400 people in Albay say they are certain many of their men, women and children still lie underneath the pile of boulders and volcanic sand that wiped out entire neighborhoods here.

Theyre still under there...There are houses under there, said a man, pointing with his lips at what used to be a 2-kilometer stretch of road that debris from Mayon Volcano had obliterated.

Gordon yesterday visited some of the areas ravaged by Reming in its powerful strike at Albay and other provinces in the Bicol region on Thursday.

Six hundred to 700 people are feared dead, Gordon told reporters on the plane flying him back to Manila.

Padang was one of 17 barangays swamped by volcanic mud and rocks in six municipalities of Albay.

Remings 5-hour fury also caused widespread floods and power outages, knocked out telecommunications, brought transportation in many areas to a standstill, and affected a total of 800,000 people in 12 provinces.

Affected refers to people who have lost their homes, whose houses are flooded or damaged, or who have lost their means of livelihood.

The casualty toll released by the National Disaster Coordinating Center in its 7 p.m. update put the number of dead at 303, including 285 in Albay, which bore the brunt of Remings gusts of 265 kph.

Ten people died in Camarines Sur, five in Catanduanes, two in Oriental Mindoro and one in Quezon, the NDCC said.

The number of missing stood at 295. Some 500 others were injured.

Everyone puzzled

About 45,000 people fled evacuation centers as Reming destroyed or damaged some 120,000 houses.

The rivers of mud and rocks that thundered down from Mayon Volcano at the height of the typhoon were part of the massive deposits of volcanic debrisestimated at 140 million cubic meters deposited on the volcanos slopes by its series of eruptions.

Weather specialists said the 466 mm of rainfall dumped by Reming surpassed the 370 mm poured by a previous typhoon on Infanta, Quezon.

The overwhelming phenomenon of the heavy rainfall was beyond disaster officials capability even if we prepare, Albays top relief officer Cedric Daep told reporters.

The 17 barangays swamped by mud were in the towns of Pio Duran, Guinobatan, Camalig, Daraga, Legazpi City and Rapu-Rapu, officials said.

In Padang, as in other smothered mountainside villages, rescuers yesterday shoveled away mud and boulders to try to recover bodies.

The heavy stench added to their miseries.

Foul odor from decaying bodies in Barangay Busay could be smelled as far as Barangay Salugan in nearby Camalig town, Maj. Ramon Rosario said.

Rosario recounted how his men dug up an entire family inside one house. Using shovels and bare hands, the soldiers dug to a depth of five feet before making their macabre discovery.
Legazpi City Mayor Noel Rosal seemed as puzzled as many of the villagers over what brought the destruction.

We werent expecting this, he said. He said city officials anticipated flood and mudflows from Mayon to follow the course of the river, but they didnt.

The mudflow descended on the village, not on the river. There must be something really wrong, Rosal said.

Villagers pointed at roofs jutting out of mud and boulders and said they were sure that there were people under themdying if not already dead.

Joseph Manjares, an official of the PNRC chapter in Albay, said that based on projections, the number of missing might reach 769.

All that some of the villagers could remember of that scary Thursday was the soundthe terrifying bam, bam of boulders crashing down as floodwaters carried them from the slopes of the volcano, the whoooosh of the winds and human voices barely audible over the noise of natures wrath.

We couldnt hear each other, said Lordito Bautista, whose family was among about 10 who took shelter on the roof of a cement factory.

But I could hear women and children shouting. I couldnt hear what they were shouting about but I was sure they were crying for help. All I could hear was the sound of boulder hitting boulder.

That was where we survived, Bautista said, pointing to the roof that was all that could be seen of the cement factory.

Some villagers recalled watching helplessly as people clinging to trees lost their grip and fell into floodwaters that they said reached the height of a two-story house.

Jesus Almayda, a village official, said he was on the roof of his house and saw bodies being swept away in the water like logs.

People pointed to a roof that was all that stood out in a pile of mud, sand and rocks at one end of the village.

Twenty people died there, one man shouted at reporters and cameramen.

The man said floods swept the villagers to the house where, seconds later, boulders and mud followed and buried them.

Some villagers said they wanted to run away, but a wall of water rushing to them forced them to stay indoors.

That was what the family of John Louie Belon tried to do.

We tried twice to just get out, said his mother, who would not give her name.

She said the family wanted to try a third time to leave the house, but the waters were coming fast.

So we just climbed our roof, she said.

When the water subsided and the mud dried, the family saw what was left of their belongingsa pair of sofas, spoons and forks caked in mud, a set of dusty plates, and a pool of water in the middle of what used to be a living room.

As officials and reporters wound their way into the village, the Belons were laying muddied clothes, kitchen ware, bed sheets and pillows out in the sun to dry.

We want to build a new house in another place, said the mother. Were afraid of this place now.

There was no way of knowing for sure how many bodies the 20-foot-high pile of volcanic materials were holding.

We dont have the equipment (to dig through the rubble), said the mayor, but we will surely retrieve their bodies.

City officials said that in this village alone, at least 41 people were dead. At least 141 others were missing, believed to be underneath the mountain of debris where there used to be roads and communities.

At the lone funeral parlor here, a white board lists the names of 12 dead.

Inside a small room that served as a morgue, the bodies of four children, a woman and a man were covered with cloths.

Their names were not on the list yet. They had not been identified.

Reserved for the dead

A garage was emptied of vehicles to make way for white coffins.

These are reserved. These are still empty, but reserved (for the dead), said one funeral parlor worker.

At a larger funeral parlor outside the village, bodies were being sprayed with formalin, a commodity that Mayor Rosal said the city might run out of soon.

One of the survivors, Silangan Santander, 21, attended funeral services for her brother, Larry.

Only Larrys lower torso and legs were found near the sea.
For my area there is a



That can only mean that it will not be windy in my area. There have been so many in my area this fall and it since this is a wind protected area it never gets windy. The next time there is a thunderstorm watch people will ignore it and then thats where all the problems will start.
Good afternoon,

A very sad situation continues to unfold in areas were super typhoon durian came ashore.The death toll no stands around 600 and could rise into the thousands as bodies continue to be recovered.May god bless those folks as they've had to deal with 4 typhoons this season.

A quick note typhoon durian continues as winds have been bumped up to 95mph but is expected to weaken before making on the coast of Cambodia.

Here is an infrared shot of durian now at 95mph ...

Hi 23.
It looks like it's doing the same thing Xangsane did before it's landfall in Vietnam
durian is up to 85KT (95-100mph) now Cat:2
Blast how do you post pics.
Durian does not appear to be affected by dry air... it appears to be strengthening and dry air near the center is nowhere to be found.
I agree i really dont see any significant dry air at the present time that will weaken durian.Looks quite moist.
Dry air not in the picture right now infact the area around durian looks quite moist as futher intensification is probable.

This truly a tragedy of eminence proportions. The best thing that can be done right now is to donate what you can for these unfortunate people. Catastrophes like this have happened before, and will undoubtably happen again. If we come together in these times of need, we can make a difference for everyone.

When I looked at the water vapor I was wondering what Dr. Masters meant by this statement, which is why I posted my comment on the lack of dry air:

A large area of dry air over the region should reduce Durian to tropical storm strength by the time it reaches Vietnam on Monday, where it is not expected to do significant damage.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters. God bless everyone affected.
Looks quite moist but hopefully the dry air will move in and weaken durian before making landfall.Dont want to see anymore destruction.
Link to JTWC warning areas
CIMSS intensity graph:

This is so sad! =(
Man those MIMIC loops just kill the blog. Just post the link please.
ok there you go.
Aid pours in for Reming victims

Money for Reming relief and rehabilitation efforts has started pouring in from international agencies, but the head of the local Red Cross urged President Arroyo to appeal the stepped up flow of humanitarian assistance.

International Federation of Red Cross (and) Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) gave 100,000 Swiss francs, or about P4 million, as its initial quick response, according to IFRC chief of delegation here, Roger Bracke.

The Netherlands has also pledged 40,000 euro, or about P2.644 million; Agencia Espaola de Cooperacin Internacional (AECI) of Spain said it is finalizing plans to send a planeload of relief foods.

Sen. Richard Gordon, chairman of the Philippine National Red Cross (PNRC), said he would impress upon the President the significance of letting the world know about the destruction left behind by the supertyphoon.

Sending the message across to foreign benefactors that the Philippines is in need of, and welcomes, relief and recovery assistance will be a positive step toward mobilizing the foreign communitys resources to extend help, Gordon said.

Meanwhile, the militarys Southern Luzon Command has organized a joint task force with the police forces in the affected regions for disaster relief operations.

Solcom Chief, Lt. General Alexander Yano stressed that troops should remain conscious of security measures against leftist rebels while conducting round the clock disaster relief operations.

Blackout on Christmas

In the province of Marinduque, Reming brought down 90 percent of the Marinduque Electric Cooperative posts that resulted to a total blackout.

Provincial Gov. Carmencita O. Reyes foresees the whole province experiencing a dark Christmas this year.

It will be extremely hard to repair all the electric posts and Im not sure if electricity will be restored in time for Christmas, Reyes said in a phone interview Saturday.

Here in my area, about 80 to 90 percent of the households lost their roofs and we have evacuated some 598 families, Reyes said.
I hope this isnt another Katrina.
How odd to be named what it is...

I was introduced to this 'smelly fruit' in Indonesia a few years back.

Not to take away from this dreadful storm, just the name did get my notice.
I for one have spoken my peace. I'm out of here and would highly recommend donating to the Red Cross like Masters posted.

May the winds of fortune blow these beasts north and west.
Here's some pictures of the destruction. Tough for these people to evacuate plus the storm strengthened so quickly. Total despair.

http://news.yahoo.com/photos/ss/events/sc/120106typhoondurian/im:/061202/photos_ts/2006_12_01t23185 1_450x343_us_philippines_typhoon?sp=-1&lsp=6000
I would have to agree that Durian is not weakening, in fact getting stronger. Eye seems to be clearing out and becoming more circular, typical of a cat 3 or more.
Just for all whom didnt know theres a Space Shuttle launch coming up on the 7th and its a night launch.
Grim search for bodies underway
By Jaime Laude
The Philippine Star 12/03/2006

Hours of torrential rains and heavy winds were terrifying enough for Benjamin Luga, 70, and his wife Elizabeth, 62 on that fateful Thursday night.

But it was only when their house started to shudder from surging mud and water did they realize that it was time to go. And escape they narrowly did by tearing down their bathroom ceiling and climbing to the roof.

"First we heard the howling winds, then came the flood. It was water, sand, gravel and boulders," Elizabeth said.

"I thought this will fall," she said, tapping on the wall of her house, the floor covered in five feet of mud. "It was like an earthquake."

A huge boulder halted just two meters from their house in Padang, Albay province.

The Luga couple were among the survivors of the rampaging mudflows from Mayon volcano triggered by super typhoon "Reming" (international codename Durian) last Thursday.

The National Disaster Coordinating Council last night reported there were 303 confirmed dead and 293 missing, with 169 injured as of 7 p.m.

The Philippine National Red Cross (PNRC) had earlier reported 388 confirmed dead and 96 missing but revised yesterday its figures down to 134 dead and 159 missing.

PNRC said it was investigating reports of another 200 dead in a village on the slopes of Mount Mayon.

Officials feared the death toll would climb as more bodies, some badly mangled by rocks carried by the mudflow, were dug up.

"The typhoon started ravaging our village at 9 a.m.," said Lydia Buevos, 58, who returned with her husband and children Friday to see their hut in Guinobatan gone. "When the water suddenly rose, we ran for our lives."

Holding a pair of slippers - the only possession she was able to save - she said she lost three relatives to the storm.

Apocalyptic scenes greeted rescue workers as they arrived on a Philippine Airforce C-130 to begin the grim search for bodies. Grieving relatives wept as they tried to identify mangled corpses.

Many buildings were damaged or demolished while villages that had dotted the slopes of Mayon had been reduced to just a few sticks protruding from the ground.

Garbage and debris were strewn on the side of streets and residents took out shoes, beds and other furniture to dry in the sun. Others used machetes and chain saws to cut logs that blocked roads.

Trucks carried dozens of bodies, covered with coconut leaves, to makeshift morgues.

President Arroyo is expected to visit Albay and other parts of Bicol on Tuesday.

Legazpi City Mayor Noel Rosal said the typhoon started battering the village of Padang at around 10 a.m. and then the mudflow struck at 3 p.m. "It was fast, very fast. Three hours of rolling stones... Families inside their houses were torn from each other," he said.

"Only two things happened. Some of them were thrown into the sea, others were buried alive."

Jun Rogando of Legazpi City said that he passed a funeral parlor with about 15 bodies lying outside on the sidewalk because they could not be accommodated inside.

"Residents said they would have a mass burial in the afternoon because they (corpses) are starting to stink," he said.

Cedric Daep, head of the Albay provincial Disaster Control Council, said it would be more a case of digging bodies from the mud than rescuing survivors.

"There are possibly dozens or hundreds (of bodies) to be recovered," Daep told AFP.

He said floodwaters had risen so rapidly that many people simply did not have time to get out of their houses. "The death toll will rise," he warned.

Daep said that the village of Maipon in Guinobatan appeared to be the worst-hit based on his aerial inspection. "From the helicopter, we saw only a few houses left unburied. Even the school where residents of Maipon had evacuated was also buried in mudflows," Daep told The STAR. Reports from survivors showed some 300 people could have been buried or washed away by raging mudflows. He said in Guinobatan alone, the number of dead and missing stood at 668. He said his office was still verifying the figure.

In Rapu-Rapu, a motorized outrigger with an undetermined number of passengers was smashed by giant waves. Its passengers remained missing, Daep said.

"It happened very rapidly and many people did not expect this because they havent experienced mudflows in those areas before,"

Albay Gov. Fernando Gonzalez said. "By the time they wanted to move, the rampaging mud flows were upon them."

He said retrieval operations were ongoing and the number of casualties might increase. "We should be able to distribute relief goods. The weather is pretty good today (Saturday)," he said.

Not a corner of the province was spared, he said. "It is a total devastation. The water was unprecedented. Never before in the history have we seen water like this. Almost every residential area was flooded."

Mayon, a popular tourist attraction because of its nearly perfect conical shape, is one of the Philippines 22 active volcanoes. It erupted in July, depositing millions of tons of rocks and volcanic ash on its slopes, and has continued to rumble since then. Rains from succeeding typhoons may have loosened volcanic materials, officials said.

Villagers have lived with the threat of a Mayon eruption - the volcanos most violent one, in 1814, killed more than 1,200 people - but say they never heard of debris being washed down so far or so violently.

For nearly three hours late Thursday afternoon, mudslides ripped through Mayons gullies, uprooting trees, flattening houses and engulfing people. Entire villages were swamped. A broken dike contributed to the flooding in many parts of Albay, the local Red Cross said.

Houses near the Yawa River in Padang, about 10 kilometers from capital Legazpi City, were buried under five feet of mud with only roofs protruding.

Half of a 12-foot tall goal post at the local soccer field lay in debris. Power pylons were toppled, and a two-lane highway became a one-lane debris-strewn road.

The heavy damage wrought by Reming pushed up prices of goods and fuel in Legazpi City. Gasoline, for instance, sells for P55 per 0.8 liter at one retail outlet. "I know its expensive but its better than to wait for a very long time at gasoline stations here," said one motorist.

The Philippine Coast Guard, meanwhile, sent BRP San Juan to Albay to assist in relief efforts. "This is a search and rescue ship that can double as a temporary hospital ship. It has a recovery room that can accommodate 60 patients. This ship had previously been used in medical missions," PCG commandant R/Adm. Damian Carlos said. The ship was also carrying P150,000 worth of food and water.

The typhoon weakened Friday as it moved north of Mindoro with sustained winds of 150 kph and gusts of up to 185 kph as it headed toward the South China Sea.

The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology or Phivolcs said it spotted Reming heading for southern Vietnam yesterday.

Commercial flights began operating into Legazpi while much of the region is still without power and communications.

The Philippines is still recovering from the impact of typhoon "Paeng" (international code name Cimaron), the strongest typhoon to hit the nation in more than 10 years, which left 38 dead or missing in late October.

In September, Metro Manila was hit by typhoon "Milenyo" (Xangsane) which killed more than 200 and caused widespread damage and cut off electricity in many parts of the capital for days.
Ok off subject; Discovery STS-116 is goin up on thursday and it is a night launch I hope all u fellow Floridans Get to see it its going up around 9 Pm. Good luck Discovery
I am not a volcano expert by any means, but I don't think the removal of mud could cause it to erupt. However, as the water seeps into the volcano and is heated, there is a heightened risk of steam explosions.
Typhoon aftermath
Rescue workers in the central Philippines are searching for survivors in the wake of a typhoon that triggered deadly landslides.
More than 400 people have been reported either dead or missing, but Philippine officials said the toll could rise.

Rescue operations are continuing, but emergency workers say hopes of finding any more survivors are dwindling.

Areas near the Mayon volcano, south-east of Manila, were among the worst-hit by Typhoon Durian.

Stench of death

A local mayor said several villages had been wiped out, with only roofs jutting out of the mud and debris.

"It's terrible. We now call this place a black desert," said Noel Rosal, mayor of Legazpi, the capital of Albay province, after visiting one stricken village.

The BBC's Sarah Toms in the Philippines says that people have been using their bare hands to pull bodies from the thick sludge.

About 100 miners have arrived to help with rescue efforts and army commanders have asked for dog teams to help with the search and lime to mask the stench.
But with many roads inaccessible, soldiers must hike for hours to reach the disaster areas, our correspondent says.

Officials using helicopters to conduct an aerial survey of the worst-hit areas estimate that more than 40,000 people have been displaced.

Many of the survivors, who have lost not only their homes, but their livelihoods too after fruit trees and rice paddies were destroyed, have crammed into makeshift shelters in schools and churches.

Disaster agencies say there is an urgent need for fresh water, food and medicine for the survivors, and more body bags.

'Lost everything'

Typhoon Durian struck the Philippines on Thursday, bringing heavy rain and winds of up to 225 kph (140 mph).

The torrential rain dislodged ash and boulders from the slopes of the Mayon volcano, causing landslides which engulfed nearby villages.

The villages worst affected are Daraga, Busay and Santo Domingo, near Legazpi, 350km (220 miles) south of the capital, Manila.

The full extent of the damage is not yet known because power and telephone lines have been brought down.

The Office of Civil Defense said that 208 people had been killed, with 261 missing.

Fernando Gonzales, governor of Albay province, said a six-foot (1.8m) high wall of water had crashed down the mountain.

"We haven't seen anything like this perhaps in hundreds of years," he told Reuters news agency. "We lost everything."

One man told local radio that the force of the water had left him helpless.

"I clung to a coconut tree because the current was strong," Ramon Valderama said. "I was swept to sea. Big rocks were hitting me."

'Toll to rise'

Cedric Daep, head of the provincial Disaster Control Council, said waters had risen so fast that people could not escape from their houses.

He said the death toll was likely to rise. "There are possibly dozens or hundreds [of bodies] to be recovered," he told the French news agency AFP.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has ordered the military to assist medical teams in reaching submerged villages.

Glenn Rabonza of the Philippine National Disaster Coordinating Council told the BBC that relief supplies were flowing into the area.

Canada has pledged more than US$800,000 to help the relief effort and Japan says it will give more than a $170,000.

Mayon, the Philippines' most active volcano, had been rumbling for months and began emitting lava in mid-July.

Durian - named after a spiky Asian fruit - is the fourth typhoon to hit the Philippines in the last three months.

It was expected to weaken into a tropical storm as it moves into the South China Sea.
Our news here...is tempered by the continuing bad news from the Phillipines.My heart goes out to the victims of the Typhoon and the families proper.We can do much to help these people.The post of the Damage and impact is grim.Our prayers are with the lost and those who are coming to their aid.
Ryan, why would you post that in here. Can I ask you that simple question please.
: MissesEsterhouse that was vary rude and un call for
Ask ply.
Maybe you can explain that garbage you just posted to this little child Miss!

I'm not going to say anything about what you said MissesEsterhouse because it is not allowed in this blog.

I will say one thing though about your comment, what if this happened to you? Then you would not have the same opinion about this. Next time you think about saying something like that again, think about what would you think if that happened to you.
we have a troll in her and it call MissesEsterhouse ban him from your blogs tell aron so he can be ban from dr m blog
You can watch some of the local Philippines news on youtube. Here was one that included some storm footage & much aftermath. I wouldn't play it with little ones in the room.
this is a sad day,
Thanks for posting that map Jeff. Death toll sadly increasing. If I receive any more updates from the disaster zone I'll post them here
the Philipino are a strong and proud people. with assistance they will ribuild these areas and hopefully lives will return to normalcy in time. The grief will last for those that have lost family and friends., Looking at the images of the destruction, it would seem that the toll will go higher in the next few days.I will be contacting the local Red Cross here on Monday to see how we can help.
This is some really bad news from the Philipines. As bad as it is, imagine how much worse it would have been if this area of the Phillipines had been more urban than it is?

This also raises the question for me of how many hurricane / typhoon deaths are typically from what could be considered "secondary" effects of these storms.

For example, in New Orleans, the massive flooding and resultant loss of life was not due to storm surge in its simplest form, but rather to failure of the dikes. By this I mean the dikes (if memory serves me correctly, and if I am wrong I hope Patrap can correct me) were not over-topped by the surge.

Mitch, on the other hand, killed so many people because of the heavy rains which caused floods. This was a more direct effect of the storm.

Did u go out there after all?
Page 1 of 4
Typhoon Reming (Durian)
Releasing Officer:
Administrator, OCD and
Executive Officer, NDCC
DATE : 3 December 2006 as of 6:00 AM
Source: OCD Regional Centers, LGUs, DOTC, DPWH, DSWD, DOH-HEMS
I. Effects
A. Affected Population (Tab A)
Affected Population - 201,927 families or 832,549 persons in 1,019
barangays of the 86 municipalities and 9 cities in 12 provinces of Regions IVA,
IV-B and V
Evacuees 3,337 families or 16,710 persons in 100 designated evacuation
B. Casualties (Tab B)
Dead - 309 (Region IV-A, IV-B, V)
Injured - 414 (Region IV-A, IV-B, V)
Missing - 298 (Region V)
C. Damages
Damaged Houses 28,119 totally and 91,430 partially (Tab C)
Damage to Properties Total-PhP 34,208,271.80 (Tab D)
(Infrastructure-PhP23,200,000.00; Agriculture PhP 11,008,271.80)
D. Status of Lifelines
Status of roads on the following areas:
Region III
* Diadlawan-Madella Road (Km 301-311) not passable to all types of
vehicle due to landslide and roadway cut. On going repair/restoration of
* Nueva Ecija-Aurora Road (Ma. Aurora Section Capatangan River) not
passable to all types of vehicle due to flooding at 2.3 meter depth.
Warning signs installed
* Nueva Ecija-Aurora Road (Brgy. Labi, Bongabon) not passable to all
types of vehicles due to landslide
Region IV-A
Page 2 of 4
* Batangas-Tabangao-Lobo Road not passable due to seaside scouring
Region IV-B
* Mogpog-Sta. Cruz Road in Marinduque now open to traffic
* Mamburao-Sablayan Road in Occidental Mindoro now open to traffic
* Mamburao-Abra de Ilog in Occidental Mindoro impassable due to fallen
* Calapan-Pinamalayan now open to traffic
* Road to Puerto Galera Road open to traffic
* East Coastal Road (Km 190-203) not passable due to flooding.
Clearing of
ditches and culvert on-going
* Dr. Damian Reyes Memorial Road (Torrijos Side Marinduque) not
passable due to road slips and landslides. Clearing operations on-going
Region V
* Legaspi-Tabacco-Tiwi Road hardly passable due to fallen trees and
electric post
* Daang Maharlika (Camalig & Daraga Section) hardly passable due to
mudflow, fallen trees and electric post. Clearing operations on-going
* Daang Maharlika Highway from Manila to Legazpi down to Sorsogon is now
open to traffic (all types of vehicle)
* Albay District Engineering Office concentrating on removal of volcanic
along Legazpi-Tabaco Road leading to port used by vessels going to
* Camalig-Comun-Gapo Road - hardly passable due to fallen trees and
electric pole. Clearing operation on-going
* Padang-Rawis Road on-going clearing operation
* Sorsogon now open to traffic
Power and communications are cut-off in Bondoc Peninsula and the Bicol
region due to the tripping of the 230KV Gumaca-Labo and TayabasNaga line
Communications with Catanduanes still down as of this report
Power outage in Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro,
Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay and Sorsogon Provinces
Transco restoration of transmission facilities and power lines is on-going along
the following areas:
- Naga, Camarines Sur:
Naga Tayabas line by-pass; Naga-Tiwi 230 kv line; Naga-Tinambac 69 kv
Naga-Pili-Lagonoy 69 kv line; Naga-Iriga 69 kv line; Naga-Libmanan 69 kv
line; Naga-Daraga 230 kv line
- Albay Province:
Page 3 of 4
Tabaco-Ligao 69 kv line; Daraga-Ligao 69 kv line; Daraga-Sorsogon 69 kv
- Quezon Province:
Gumaca-Labo 230 kv line and Kalayaan-Gumaca 230 kv line
II. Response/Consequence Management
Search and Rescue Operations
Search and Rescue/Retrieval Teams on the ground:
 Southern Leyte Emergency Rescue Team (SOLERT)
 Philippine Mining Safety and Environment Association (PMSEA)
(50-man team dispatched to Guinobatan, Albay and 50-man team standby)
 Philippine K-9 Search and Rescue Team / Makati Rescue with canine
capability (12-man team with 2 canine)
 Lafayette Mining Corporation (50-man team of diggers / rescuers)
 AFP elements under SOLCOM combined with PCG (TF TIWASAY, 901st
Bde, 65IB, CRS, SMOU) total of 70 person
Retrieval operations will resume this morning.
Relief Operations
The estimated cost of assistance provided by NDCC, DSWD, DOH, LGUs,
NGOs and other GOs - P 13,030,116.57 (Tab E), detailed as follows:
 NDCC Rice Assistance (6,900 sacks of Rice) - P5,865,00.00
 DSWD (assorted relief goods) - 6,397,385.30
 DOH (medicines & cadaver bags) - 747,451.27
 LGUs - 18,480.00
 NGOs and Other GOs - 1,800.00
NDCC facilitated transport of relief goods (2 C-130 sorties to Legaspi City on
02 December 2006).
 1st sortie 22 tons (relief/ food stuff from DSWD, medicines and
cadaver bags from DOH; relief goods from PNRC)
 2nd sortie 30 tons (relief/food stuff from DSWD, CARITAS and
ABOITIZ I, 10 sacks lime from PAF)
NDCC facilitated the transport of two (2) water purifiers for deployment in
GMA Kapuso Foundation will be sending relief goods in Calapan City,
Oriental Mindoro thru the Navy Patrol Ship PS-70
Clearing Operations
Page 4 of 4
Ongoing clearing operations by the DPWH IV and V in the following areas:
 Mindoro - along Calapan Socorro, Baco to Puerto Galera, Pinamalayan
area and Bongabong and East Coastal Road Sections
 Marinduque Between memorial road in Boac and Torrijos (passable to
light vehicles)
PDCC Marinduque deployed 2 dumptrucks, 3 chainsaws and 10 crews
Region V
WASH - Drinking water, water purifying tablets
Health - Medical teams, social workers and medicines
Food - Relief goods such as rice, noodles, sardines, etc.
Non-food - Blankets, mattresses
Emergency Shelter - Tents
Conduct of rapid damage and needs assessment, search and rescue and
sustain relief operations
Provinces of Albay (still in effect due to Typhoon Milenyo), Marinduque and
Camarines Sur

source: NDCC

(you can download the pdf file by clicking this Link )
800 dead or missing in mudslides: Red Cross
12/03 9:56:58 AM

MANILA (AFP) - More than 800 people are either dead or missing after rivers of mud and volcanic ash triggered by a typhoon swamped villages in the Philippines, the Red Cross said Sunday.

The Red Cross said it had confirmed 406 dead from the mudslides around Mayon volcano in the eastern region of Bicol with 398 missing.

Red Cross coordinator Paul Pagaran said the death toll was expected to go up as many of the missing were likely to turn up dead as the mudflow had buried entire villages.

Heavy rains brought by super typhoon Reming (international name: Durian) on Thursday mixed with volcanic ash on the slopes of Mayon volcano to cause the deadly torrents.
i have my blog on typhoon durian's devastation. if u want to post comments, go ahead. i'll update it regularly. thank you.
Durian looks to be intensifying again. T#s are up to 5.6.

WV loop.

I don't see what the forcasters expect to weaken this thing...
durian is up to 105 mph again
A large area of disorganised weather just east of the Caribbean islands, but the forecasts are vague as to how it moves. North ? or west ?
I think it's going to intensify into a 120mph Cat:3 then start to weaken and make landfall as a borderline Cat:1-2
The disturbed weather is associated with a ULL. I would expect it to move north, but I can't tell now because it is stationary.
hurricaneblast, what do you see to cause it to weaken before landfall ?
Sounds like a good forcast to me.
thanks 1900, I am hoping you are correct, I have a plan to go into the rainforest for a few days.........
I think some dry air is going to drop down from China, as it usually does during this time of year. I think Durian is going to have winds of 100 mph at landfall, but I've been wrong before...
A- the dry air should eventually take it's toll on Durian
B- Almost every storm weakens before landfall at a large landmass
C- The mountains should disrupt the system before landfall

that's why I think it will weaken before landfall
OK, Thanks for that. Respect.
94B Invest is up for the Northern Indian Ocean
I was looking at the water temps and the windshear, but I can see the picture is larger than that.......
You might want to check this out pottery. The GFS is calling for the low to move very slowly west over the next few days, with most of the rainfall staying on the east side. All of the global models are in agreement.

Hope that doesn't ruin your plans!
Goodnight Y'all!
Thanks again 1900. I had checked the NOGAPS a little while ago as well. It wont ruin the plan, but it may change it some. We walk in river and stream beds alot in the forest, and its hard when they are full !! Hammoks and plastic sheet keep sleeping nice and cozy......and there is never any wind at ground level, you hear it though !!!!
I'm out too, with a prayer for the Phillipine people.
Checkin out Durian..big eye.

Navy ~ 90kts 954mb


It should weaken a little before landfall...large land mass, slightly lower SST~ Though we most likely will see more strengthening before that happens.
the reaction time and response time to this storm is very slow. BLAME FEMA!!!! BLAME FEMA!!!! IT'S FEMA'S FAULT!!!! BLAME BUSH!!!! IT'S BUSH'S FAULT!!!! HE HATES FILIPINOS!!!!

i'm being sarcastic of course because i'm sure some idiot is probalby thinking that.

to think we thought the destruction from katrina was bad. we've no idea how good we have it here.
stansimms72, that was an asinine comment.
Found a couple of coastal maps that show terrain and depths around the projected landfall at Nha Trang, Vietnam.
map1 elevations in feet
map2 elevations and depths in meters
The death toll might even reach to 1000 says the Red Cross. What a horrible event near the Christmas Season.
I'll keep on posting updates in my blog just in case. The next update of the National Disaster Coordinating Council here will be at 6 pm. if you want the latest figures from the NDCC either go to this Link or go to my blog.
Baha, I pulled out of going to the Philippines to intercept Durian 30 minutes before I was supposed to go to the airport. The latest JTWC update had it recurving before hitting Luzon and JMA were going for landfall of only 75kts. I intercepted Xangsane in Vietnam 2 months ago, so not good news for them to have another typhoon heading their way.
Durian Death Toll could reach "thousands".

My prayers are with them...

By OLIVER TEVES, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 41 minutes ago

DARAGA, Philippines - The top Red Cross official in the Philippines said Sunday that he thinks 1,000 people or more have been killed by Typhoon Durian.


"We're estimating the casualties could reach 1,000, perhaps more," said Sen. Richard Gordon, who heads the local Red Cross. His figure of 1,000 was based on reports from Red Cross officials on the ground in the devastated areas.

Gordon said at present his group has recorded a death toll of at least 406, with 398 others missing, based on figures provided by mayors of devastated towns in the eastern Philippines, where Durian hit with 139 mph winds and torrential rains on Thursday.

94. amd
just checking the latest cimss estimates, they have this storm at 115 kts right now, even though it is technicially a 90 kt storm


what happened in the philipines was an absolute tradegy, and i hope that this story gets the worldwide attention that it deserves.

also, i am amazed that this storm somehow avoided the massive dry air and the heavy shear associated with the north east monsoon.

SSD has it at T5.5, 100-105 kts, so it is likely somewhere between 105 and 115 kts, maybe 110 kts. Also, what dry air?
Doesn't look as good now.
It is very cruel to make fun of disasters that affect peoples lives. No one asked for this to happen to them and the stupidity lies with the person(s) dumb enough to make hurtful statements regarding it. I'm not sure how easy it is to do, but someone should SERIOUSLY consider banning folks who make comments like MissesEsterhouse. It is VERY distasteful, and takes away from the validity of this blog.
Latest 24hr MIMIC on Durian.

well said stlwesley
Durian definately appears to be weakening now, which will be reflected in the next intensity estimate:

Red Cross: Asia storm toll may hit 1,000

By OLIVER TEVES, Associated Press Writer 20 minutes ago

The top Red Cross official in the Philippines said Sunday that he thinks 1,000 people or more have been killed by Typhoon Durian.

"We're estimating the casualties could reach 1,000, perhaps more," said Sen. Richard Gordon, who heads the local Red Cross. His figure of 1,000 was based on reports from Red Cross officials on the ground in the devastated areas.

Gordon said at present his group has recorded a death toll of at least 406, with 398 others missing, based on figures provided by mayors of devastated towns in the eastern Philippines, where Durian hit with 139 mph winds and torrential rains on Thursday.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo declared a state of national calamity Sunday, allowing the government to more rapidly release funds needed to bolster search and rescue efforts.

Typhoon Durian was the fourth major storm to hit the Philippines in four months. It buffeted the Mayon volcano with so much wind and rain that ash and boulders cascaded down in walls of black mud that swamped entire villages on Thursday.

The Philippines' location in the northwestern Pacific often makes it the region's welcome mat for typhoons.

"We are often the first to experience typhoons before they go to China, Taiwan and Japan," said Thelma Cinco, senior weather specialist of the Philippine weather bureau.

Durian, named after a thorny fruit with a powerful odor that many find offensive, blew away roofs, toppled trees and power lines and sent tons of rocks and volcanic ash down Mayon, the region's most famous landmark about 210 miles southeast of Manila.

Rescuers scouring mountain villages buried under mud and boulders discovered more bodies Saturday. The first funerals were held Saturday evening as bodies rapidly decomposed in the tropical heat.

In the town of Padang, only rooftops protruded from the mud and debris. Power pylons were toppled, a two-lane highway became a one-lane road strewn with debris and overturned trucks.

Silangan Santander, 21, attended funeral services for her brother, Larry, whose widow was five months pregnant. Only his lower torso and legs were found near the sea. Another brother was missing.

"In the community where my brother lived, all the houses there were gone," she said. "There are only rocks, sand and water."

The sound of boulders crashing down Mayon's slopes "were like thunder, and the ground shook," she said. "We thought it would be our end."

The Red Cross appealed for food, tents, water, blankets, mats, mosquito nets and body bags. Canada donated $876,000 while Japan said it would send $173,000, the Philippine government said.

Nationwide, at least 2,892 people have been killed and 909 have gone missing in storms between 2001-05, according to the National Disaster Coordinating Council. Damage has totaled $521 million.

The calamities came despite preparations and measures to mitigate the damage.

Anthony Golez, the council's deputy chief said the people of the Philippines need to be better informed about disaster preparedness.

He said Filipinos should be "bombarded" with disaster information, including stories of the Indian Ocean tsunami two years ago and the February 2006 landslide in the central Philippine village of Guinsaugon that killed more than 1,000.

"They have to get scared, or else," he said. "We have to give them the reality, and it's a sad reality. We have to tell them the truth."

But beyond preparedness, Golez said too many people live close to danger zones like mountainsides or riverbanks.

"They are pushed there because they do not have any choice. If you develop their economy, then they would have more options," he said.

Gordon, the local Red Cross head, said better planning is needed.

"We have to break the cycle of disaster and poverty by being smarter, by being sure we can plan our community smarter," he said. "The big problem here in our country is we don't plan our communities. It's every man for himself."

He said the government has money for disaster mitigation but that politicians look to building projects that last only long enough for people to remember them during election campaigns.

Mayor Jessie Robredo of Naga city in Camarines Sur, a province in the Bicol region often hit by typhoons, said his people are used to the yearly storms and began bracing for Durian a week before it arrived. The result was "zero casualty" this time, he said.

But he laments that emergency funds, used to help his constituents get back on their feet after typhoons, could be used for economic projects.

"We would have been more progressive, more productive," he said. "The worst part of a typhoon is that instead of using our funds for livelihood, we use them for relief to help people rebuild their lives. Instead of building infrastructures, we repair buildings."

The cycle seems unlikely to break soon.

"The people of Naga are very resilient," Robredo said. "Typhoons are like a way of life, a part of life. We do not like them, but our attitude is that there is still another day and we will rise again."


Associated Press Writer Jim Gomez contributed to this report from Manila.

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.
Looks like I was right about weakening in satellite intensity estimates (also refer to Skyepony's graph above):

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 944.4mb/115.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.8 5.5 4.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.4mb

Center Temp : -57.4C Cloud Region Temp : -60.5C

Not to take away from all of the lost lives or anything, but does anyone know what type of monetary damages have been caused in the Phillipines due to Durian. The people in the mudslide areas that are still alive are going to have a pretty rough time getting their lives back with their entire villages destroyed.
I'm not sure about it but I think it's in the Billions in US currency. (I'm probably wrong though)
State of national calamity
By Paolo Romero
The Philippine Star 12/04/2006

President Arroyo declared yesterday a "state of national calamity" as hopes for finding survivors of typhoon-triggered mudslides in Albay vanished, with emergency workers fearing the death toll could exceed 1,000.

Mrs. Arroyo ordered the release of P1 billion initially for relief and rehabilitation efforts in areas affected by "Reming" (international code name Durian) and two previous destructive typhoons this year "Milenyo" and "Paeng."

The National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) reported 309 bodies were retrieved, 298 people remained missing and 414 were injured three days after Reming struck, triggering deadly mudslides from Mayon volcano in Albay.

Aside from the Bicol region, Reming also ravaged Marinduque and parts of Mindoro.

Sen. Richard Gordon, who heads the Philippine National Red Cross (PNRC), said the death toll could easily reach 700 "on the low side," based on official casualty figures and reports his group obtained from mayors of devastated villages.

As emergency workers and residents continued to dig bodies from the mud, PNRC officials said they had confirmed 406 deaths and another 398 missing.

"Many are saying the death toll could exceed 1,000," Gordon said. "People are telling us entire families and villages have disappeared.

"There are many unidentified bodies, there could be a lot more hidden below. Whole families may have been wiped out," Gordon told AP by phone.

Gordon said in one funeral parlor, 40 bodies had gone unclaimed. "If they were unclaimed, it is likely their relatives were buried as well," he said.

"At a certain point in time, we will just have to say, we cannot do anymore. We are not going to find any more (bodies)," Gordon added.

In a rare case, residents of the riverside town of Rawis used handtools in a desperate attempt to reach five college students they believed were trapped in a ruined dormitory.

No survivors are known to have been pulled from the swampy land since the first hours after Reming blasted ashore Thursday with winds gusting up to 265 kph.

PNRC said as many as 31 villages with some 14,871 residents were hit by the mudflows.

The PNRC has also been asked to look for two foreigners missing in Albay province. Brecon Wieyan, 24, from Australia, and John Cochrin, 59, from New Zealand were on their way to Sorsogon when the typhoon struck.

The first funerals took place Saturday evening as bodies rapidly decomposed in the tropical heat.

All but two dozen of the deaths occurred in worst-hit Albay, including 165 in the town of Guinobatan, swamped by floodwaters in Mayon volcanos foothills. Four other provinces reported fatalities, but accurate casualty figures were hard to come by, with the disasters devastation so widespread and power and phone lines down. In some places, rescue workers found only body parts.

"We need food, tents, water, body bags," PNRC official Andrew Nocon told dzMM radio Saturday. "We sent initially 300 bags, but we need more."

Ramses Valerio, science research specialist for Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology said heavy rains could still trigger mudslides around Mayon. "There is danger if river channels overflow due to heavy rains," he said. Valerio said there is still a large amount of mud in and around Mayons crater.
Tsunami scare
Tales of tragedy and loss abound as power, communications and water remain out of service in most of the Bicol region, further hampering rescue and relief efforts.

At a hospital in Legazpi, survivor Arthur Atierros, 37 tried to comfort his distraught wife Mercy, 35, whose leg was amputated after the wall of their home collapsed on her.

Their nine-year-old daughter, Armira stood nearby, the only one of four children they were able to find after mud swamped their home.

Atierros said he and his relatives carried his wife for eight hours on a makeshift stretcher to the hospital.

Nearby, Adrian Bagasala was tending to his 29-year-old wife, Ivy, who also had to have her leg amputated when their home collapsed.

Bagasala said he dug his seven-month pregnant wife out of the mud but the strain caused her to go into labor, giving birth prematurely. The infant died soon after birth.

Silangan Santander, 21, attended a funeral for her brother, Larry. Only his lower torso and legs were found near the sea.

Deeply traumatized by the tragedy, Albays coastal residents reacted in terror to rumors of a coming tsunami yesterday.

Cedric Daep, chief of Albays Provincial Disaster Management Office, said hundreds of people - some even crying - ran in panic while dozens of others begged for rides from motorists along Maharlika Highway. There had also been cases of vehicle smashup along the highway.

Daep said a woman who had just delivered a baby hurriedly left a hospital and was nearly hit by a rushing vehicle. He said there had also been reports of injuries from stampede and of people dying of heart attack.

"We had to make a denial, that theres no truth to the tsunami reports through mobile public address system from Legazpi City up to the coastal towns of Albays first district including Tabaco City," Daep told The STAR.
Country grateful
Mrs. Arroyo ordered no letup in the search for survivors even as she led the nation in thanking the international community for the "outpouring of sympathy" and assistance.

"Even as the nation continues to grieve on this tragedy, the Filipino people are grateful for the outpouring of prayers and support extended to us from all around the world," Mrs. Arroyo said.

The latest pledge of assistance amounting to US$780,000 came from Australia which also conveyed its condolences through Ambassador Tony Hely.

"This (outpouring of support) must send a clear message to us all to keep our hopes high and have unity amid the challenges posed to us by this calamity. All resources of the government will continue to be mobilized without letup as we pin hope against hope on the search of survivors," she said in a statement.

"We need to rise up from this trial and help rebuild devastated communities and lives," she said. Earlier expressions of sympathy and aid pledges came from the Vatican, Canada, Spain, Russia, Japan, Pakistan, Singapore, New Zealand, United States Agency for International Development, the Netherlands. and the International Federation of Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies.

Presidential Chief of Staff Michael Defensor, Budget Secretary Rolando Andaya Jr. and NDCC deputy executive director Dr. Anthony Golez flew to Albay yesterday on a C-130 cargo plane along with Japanese and Spanish rescue volunteers and 80,000 pounds of relief goods that included medicines, clothes and canned food.

"We were ordered to embed ourselves in the area (Bicol region) to make a final estimate of the cost of repairs and rehabilitation and to consolidate and coordinate government and private restoration efforts," Andaya said in a telephone interview.

"Its important that we get a picture of the situation so we will know where to pinpoint aid, in this way, we will be sending the right kind of aid in the right amount or right volume to the right people who will need them," he said.

Andaya said Defensor "will be the Presidents eyes and ears on the ground" who "will give feedback and requests to Manila so that things needed can be dispatched immediately."

He said that aside from food and medicines, earthmoving equipment and chain saws are needed in the affected areas, particularly Albay.

Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita said a total of 170,000 pounds of relief goods have been airlifted so far to the Bicol region and Marinduque.

Press Assistant Secretary Joe Capadocia said the President will visit Bicol tomorrow before proceeding to a Cabinet meeting on anti-poverty programs in Iloilo City.

Capadocia said Mrs. Arroyo will take an early plane to Pili, Naga and then proceed to Pasacao, Camarines Sur on a helicopter. From Pasacao, she will take the same chopper to Legazpi City to meet with local officials. After the visits, she will proceed to Iloilo for the Cabinet meeting.
Damage report
The Office of Civil Defense said more than 832,000 residents of 1,019 villages in the Bicol region, Marinduque, and parts of Mindoro were affected by Reming. Of the figure, nearly 17,000 individuals are in evacuation centers.

More than 28,000 houses in the affected areas were totally destroyed and roughly 91,000 partially damaged.

OCD placed the damage to infrastructure and agriculture at P23.2 million and P11 million, respectively.

OCD said the Bondoc Peninsula in Quezon and the Bicol region are still without power due to the tripping of the 230 kilovolt Gumaca-Labo and TayabasNaga line. Marinduque, Oriental Mindoro and Occidental Mindoro are also without electricity as of press time.

But the Maharlika Highway from Manila to Legazpi and Sorsogon is now open to all types of vehicles, OCD said.

Reports from Catanduanes as of Saturday showed 11 people dead, and two each missing and injured, Maj. Ernesto Torres, Army spokesman said.

For nearly three hours late Thursday afternoon, mudslides ripped through Mayons gullies, uprooting trees, flattening houses and swallowing people.

"Every corner of this province has been hit. It is a total devastation," Albay Gov. Fernando Gonzalez said earlier. "Never before in the history have we seen water like this. Almost every residential area was flooded."

The disaster came after some 30,000 people were evacuated from the slopes of Mayon in August amid signs that the volcano was again erupting. However the residents were allowed to return home in September after the volcano simmered down. - With Cet Dematera, James Mananghaya, Helen Flores, AP, AFP
Yup I was wrong it's in the Millions in US Currency
The relief funds sent to the Philippeans from Canada, Japan, and Austrailia totals at $1,850,000 USD.
Still nothing on my family in Tarlac and Legaspi. One other note to add into the missing, as of right now 36,000 children helped and sponsored by Children International are listed as missing and unaccounted for.
Orphans, scrap wood coffins in mudslide-hit areas

The Philippine Star 12/04/2006

MAIPON, Albay Cristina Buen sits patiently as a neighbor hammers together a coffin made of scrap wood for her younger sister Crissa Mae. The smell of death hangs heavy in the air.

Crissas small body, wrapped in a dirty blanket, lies on the ground in what is left of this village, obliterated by a river of mud and ash unleashed by typhoon rains.

Nearby, a bigger coffin under a makeshift tent contains the remains of her mother, Erlinda, who was killed as she tried to reach her children.

"I dont know what to do with my brothers and sisters. We are orphans now," she said. Their father passed away years ago.

"Our neighbors are kind enough to build us coffins."

In the village of Maipon, typical of those that dot the slopes of Mayon volcano, there is no laughter of children playing, just silence as the walking wounded come to terms with their loss.

"It was dark and the mud was rising fast. Mama tried to save us, but all of a sudden she was gone," Cristina told AFP, cradling Crissa Maes surviving seven-year-old twin, Carissa Joy.

Two younger siblings wander around, mud drying from their clothes, their bare feet sore.

Other children who survived the carnage stare into space or look blankly into cameras capturing the first images of devastation in Maipon, one of the many farming villages around Mayon volcano erased from the face of the earth last Thursday night.

"We dont have any money. An official already visited us and we are waiting for them to come back to help us carry our mother and sister into a nearby town for a proper burial," Cristina said.

Nearby, a man is nearly done with the coffin he fashioned out of wooden planks salvaged from a broken cabinet.

A few meters away, a grandmotherly woman watches over the makeshift coffin of Elsa Oximina. Three yellow candles burn while daughter Roslyn herds together surviving family members.

"I am checking if all the children are here," Roslyn said, her voice thick with emotion.

"We need help here. The children dont have food and we need assistance in burying our dead."

The Red Cross said yesterday that it had confirmed a total 406 dead from the mudslides so far. But it said another 398 people were missing, and fears the eventual toll could be as high as 1,000.

Maipon, a farming village of some 3,000 people, used to be a lively place. It was spared destruction by a fierce typhoon last October, and was preparing for a modest Christmas when tragedy struck.

Only the shells of a few houses remain standing in a vast sea of grey.

A river that flows directly from the slopes of Mayon was engulfed by ash and mud, which spilled onto different directions and created new paths, swallowing up everything in its path.

Dead animals, fallen trees and debris float in deep canals. The stench of death hangs thick.

The first batch of rescuers from an auxiliary air force unit, aided by a canine search team flown in by the military from Manila, arrived Friday.

A sweep of the outskirts yielded 16 bodies but dozens or even hundreds are believed buried here.

No one is really making a proper count. There are no forensic experts to help identify the dead, who are taken away in body bags and dumped in a funeral parlor in the center of Guinobatan town, three kilometers away.

As of last count, 166 bodies have been recovered here and other villages in the area. Fifty-seven were in an advanced stage of decomposition and had to be buried in a mass grave, their identities never to be known.

"This has been by far the biggest tragedy to hit us in recent history," said Gene Villareal, the vice mayor of Guinobatan with a population of 55,000.

"Our infrastructure is overwhelmed and we are straining our resources in search and recovery efforts," he said.

He said the death toll would almost certainly rise, with news from isolated far-flung villages only now beginning to trickle in.

"How can you tell for sure how many are dead when an entire village is buried under mud and none of them can report what happened?" asked Carlos Baylon, the vice mayor of nearby Daraga town. AFP
It's terrible, and reminiscent of the Las Casitas Volcano mudslide (around 2000 killed) after Hurricane Mitch. Obviously more needs to be done toward forecasting these disasters.
Reming survivor: I couldnt believe it was my son

First posted 05:54:11 (Mla time) 2006-12-04
Joanna Los Baos Ephraim Aguilar

LEGAZPI CITY -- As floodwaters unleashed by Supertyphoon Reming (international codename: Durian) swept her village, Sally Buensalida, 26, embraced her 2-year-old son before sending him off to her mothers house, thinking he would be safe there. It was to be their last embrace.

Interviewed at a funeral parlor here, Sally said the place where she was staying was collapsing and she thought that her son would be safer with her mother.

After Reming passed, Sally went to check on the boy.

I was shocked to see my mothers house gone, she said between sobs. She was told her sons body had been seen floating in Albay Gulf.

I couldnt believe it was my son because his eyes were wide open Later, I realized it was really him, said Sally, whose husband was in Manila at the time.

Two of her sisters and a niece were also killed, crushed under a fallen coconut tree. Her mother was still missing.

All of Sallys relatives were among the dozens of people killed in the avalanche of mud and rocks that swamped Barangay Padang, 8 kilometers from the city proper and one of the areas hardest hit by Reming.

Sallys son lay on the floor of Bejer Basco Funeral Parlor because there were no available coffins for children.

Parlor owner Merly Bejer said this was the first time in her 10 years in the business that the parlor had embalmed so many bodies in a day.

Although we would profit from it, we are not happy because of what happened, she said.

Another woman survivor said she was carried 8 km away from her house by the flood, but suffered only bruises.

Because of the mud and the fallen electric posts, a portion of the road between Barangay Bigaa Padang had become a dead-end for motorists and people had to walk.

Along the way, rescue teams plodded on, carrying stretchers with bodies covered with blankets.

McDave Nuez, 18, of Barangay Busay in Daraga, showed no emotion as he wrote the name Janine on a piece of paper.

The paper would serve as a label on her sisters body that lay amid hundreds of other bodies bloated and coated with dried mud at the garage of Nuestra Seora de Salvacion Funeral Home.

McDave, the eldest in the family, had just arrived from Manila, where he had been working.

He rushed home after getting a text message that his whole family -- seven siblings and his two parents -- were trapped inside their house when it was struck by mud flows from Mayon volcano.

He was able to identify one of his five sisters but he had not found the bodies of his parents, four sisters and two brothers.

I still cannot believe that they are gone, he said.

source: Link
Plywoodstatenative, I am sure that you are concerned for your family in the Phillipines. I hope and pray they are well. During the dreadful tsunami in Indomesia, my wife waited 5 long days to learn that her sister was fine, and it was a tense time. Keep strong.
its a very touching story. like the filipino expressing, "nawala sya ng parang bula" (Disappeared like a bubble)
Touching indeed. Oh how I want to fly to the Philippines & bring home some orphans..I settled on opening the checkbook.

Durian is beginning to affect the SE side of Vietnam...winds have decreased some to 70kts. Rainfall still looks to be a potentail threat though somewhat consentrated. Latest 3 hr average, checking TRMM, is .7 inches or ~17mm an hour.
Durian has shrunken greatly in size, and seems to have become very disorganized. I am no longer worried about wind and mass being a huge threat. What does concern me though is the fact that Durian is not moving fast. I want people not too forget that the biggest danger from these beasts is flooding rain and mudslides. Durian's going to make landfall in a very mountainous area of Vietnam with plenty of small villages in it's path. It's times like these that I as a human being feel so useless. There is nothing I can do. That's what makes it hurt so bad. The best I can give these people are my prayers for what little help they might offer.
Lay out a topo and show us the mountains please.
Thank you for posting the links for donations.
Da Lat is a good example of a city that could get hit hard by Durian.
Nam Topo.

Viet Nam is long and narrow, with a 1,400-mi. coast. About 24% of country is readily arable, including the densely settled Red River valley in the North VietNam (Bac Viet), narrow coastal plains in the Central VietNam (Trung Viet), and the wide, often marshy Mekong R. Delta in the S. The rest consists of semi-arid plateaus and barren mountains, with some stretches of tropical rain forest.

Every year there are 100 rainy days and the average rainfall is 1,500 to 2,000mm. The humidity ranges around 80%. The sunny hours is 1,500 to 2,000 and the average solar radiation of 100 kcal/cm2 in a year.

The monsoon climate also influences to the changes of the tropical humidity. In general, in Vietnam there are two seasons, a hot and rainy season (from May to October), and a cold season (from November to April the next). However the four distinct seasons are most evident in the Northern provinces (from Hai Van Pass toward to the north): Spring, Summer, Autumn, and Winter.
This is a thunderstorm to the VietNamese people.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 967.2mb/ 92.4kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.4 4.4 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.6mb

Center Temp : -54.3C Cloud Region Temp : -59.7C



Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
So far....Durian is doing exactly as forecast to do. It is weak and pressure is rising.

This is a thunderstorm to the VietNamese people.

Ok normally i'd let this go, but when somebody understimates the flooding these
storms can cause I get pissed.

Do you think that Mitch killed all those people becasue he was a cat 5. No, Mitch was a cat 1/tropical storm when he caused his worst damage. If you want to say this storm is no big deal say it too the 11,000 or so souls who died from a slow moving Tropical Storm Mitch.
That's it, end of story I have nothing more to say too you.
Good....watch and see.
Everything is time, place, oriented.

Goodnight and good luck too those in Vietnam.
Well....I know the place...I know the timing and I know this is not one third the storm that hit the East coast of the Philippines.

Durian....now under 100mph.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 973.6mb/ 84.8kt
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 5:19 AM GMT on December 04, 2006.

Durian's going to make landfall in a very mountainous area of Vietnam with plenty of small villages in it's path.

Wrong again. Durian is mostly moving into the southern area and not that much high ground there to cause the mud-slides like we saw in the Philippines. It is just not the same storm now.
Vietnam braces for Durian, evacuates tens of thousands

First posted 11:52:51 (Mla time) 2006-12-04
Associated Press

HANOI, Vietnam -- Authorities evacuated tens of thousands of people in Vietnam from the path of approaching typhoon Durian (Philippine codename: Reming), which killed hundreds and wrought widespread destruction in the Philippines.

The national weather forecast center said the typhoon had winds of up to 133 kilometers (82 miles) per hour, and had been expected to hit south central provinces of Khanh Hoa and Ninh Thuan on Monday night.

Soldiers and police were ordered to evacuate people from high risk areas in Khanh Hoa province before noon Monday, and all schools there were closed, said provincial governor Vo Lam Phi.

Provincial disaster official Phan Van Giac said that nearly 14,000 people have been evacuated to schools, government buildings or safer areas, and that authorities are forcing from their homes another 10,000 who have so far refused to leave.

In neighboring Phu Yen province, two fishermen were killed and another was still missing after their boats capsized in strong winds, said disaster official Duong Van Huong.

He said about 4,000 people there have been evacuated to safe areas.

Just to the south in the province of Ninh Thuan province, provincial Governor Hoang Thi Ut Lan said about 2,000 residents had been evacuated, but have returned to their homes.

"Many people who were moved have decided to go back to their houses because it's still sunny," she said. "It is really a problem for us now."

Lan said authorities are trying to force them to move to safer places.

This bit of aid is not even a drop of what these people will need.

Foreign aid trickles in after Reming mudslide disaster

First posted 12:23:16 (Mla time) 2006-12-04
Agence France-Presse

FOREIGN aid is trickling into the Philippines after deadly mudslides triggered by torrential rains left more than 1,000 people dead or missing.

Local rescue teams have been trying to reach isolated villages and towns in the worst affected parts of the Bicol region, south east of Manila, which bore the full impact of supertyphoon Durian last Thursday.

Food, water and medical supplies are in short supply as civilians and troops picked their way through what remains of villages and towns in the vain hope of finding survivors.

Philippine military aircraft have been ferrying supplies from Manila to the provincial capital Legazpi.

The government's National Disaster Coordinating Centre (NDCC) on Monday confirmed 425 dead from the mudslides around Mayon volcano and listed a further 599 people as missing.

Local Red Cross official Benjamin Delfin told Agence France-Presse: "We are receiving donations from international organizations at this point as we continue to estimate the cost of this disaster.

"What we need now are medicines, food and items such as blankets, water and plastic sheeting for those who lost their homes."

The NDCC said humanitarian aid is expected from Japan, Indonesia and Malaysia while cash is being sent from the United Nations and the governments of Canada and Australia.

Japan is sending tents, blankets, generators and water tankers. Malaysia has dispatched a C-130 transport aircraft with 20 tons of medicine and food while Indonesia sent two aircraft with emergency aid.

Australia is to send $1 million while the UN is sending between one and two million dollars for the purchase of emergency relief supplies.

On Saturday the Canadian government announced it was donating one billion Canadian dollars for relief efforts.

The Spanish International Cooperation Agency (AECI) said on Sunday it was sending a C-130 transport carrying medicine, hygiene equipment, a field hospital, tents, blankets and equipment to provide and distribute drinking water.

A medical team as well as aid experts will leave for the Philippines on Monday.

According to the NDCC more than one million people in the Bicol region have been affected by the disaster.

Delfin said each family in an evacuation center would need about five kilograms (11 pounds) of rice, noodles, sardines, and non-food items every two days.

"We have already sent out some relief supplies," he said without giving exact figures.

"We have a lot of manpower, we have local chapter members as well as volunteers. We have no problem with the human resources," he said.

He said transport assistance would be appreciated to move the manpower and supplies to the affected areas.

"We are pulling out some of our resources from the field to be mobilized in the disaster areas," he said without giving other details.

On Sunday President Gloria Arroyo declared a "state of national calamity" and authorized the immediate release of a P1 billion to help affected areas.

Actual topographical maps of the area around the currently projected landfall.

topographical overview
smaller scale section with elevations and depths in meters.

Mountains and flood plains. Along much of the coast it gets deep fairly quickly ... but not all of it.

Currently projected landfall (very close to Phang Rang).
We're mostly good in that location. This is not that big of a deal for them.
Ho Chi Minh City is located at 1045' North, 10640' East (10.75, 106.667) in the Southeastern Region of Vietnam, 1,094 mi/1,760 km south of Hanoi. The average elevation is 63 feet/19 meters above sea level. It borders Tay Ninh and Binh Duong Provinces to the north, Dong Nai and Ba Ria - Vung Tau Provinces to the east, Long An Province to the west and the East Sea to the south with a coast of 20 km in length. The city covers an area of 809 sq mi/2,095 km (0.63% of the surface of Vietnam), extending up to Cu Chi (20 km from the Cambodian border), and down to Can Gio on the East Sea coast. The distance from the northernmost point (Phu My Hung Commune, Cu Chi District) to the southernmost one (Long Hoa Commune, Can Gio District) is 120 km, and from the easternmost point (Long Binh Ward, District Nine) to the westernmost one (Binh Chanh Commune, Binh Chanh District) is 46 km.

The city has a tropical climate, with an average humidity of 75%. A year is divided into 2 distinct seasons: The rainy season with an average rainfall of about 1,800 mm annually (about 100 rainy days per year), which usually begins in May and ends in late November. The dry season lasts from December to April. The average temperature is 28 C (Celsius), the highest temperature sometimes reaches 39 C around noon in late April, while the lowest may fall below 16 C in the early mornings of late December.

Sorry....I fixed it!
The two maps are large (thats why I posted links). You have dial up. Since you replied after only one minute I don't think you actually looked at them. I'm sorry I can't make them smaller and keep the detail. I wish you would look at them.

Mountains, flood plains, and a shallow bay near landfall.
Everything's cool...DSL here.

Read my above post about the massive evacs in this area.
This is really about all there is to know. The system is no wetter than normal for VietNam.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 977.8mb/ 79.6kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.1 4.0 4.0 3.7
I read your post about the evacs. People returning home because the sun is still out. :( Officials trying to force them to leave.

Seems like a common problem. MargieKieper talks about it on her current blog.

Apparently Mexico has solved it though. I wonder how.
What is that CI#? Does it have to do with precip rate.

I would agree if the rainfall rates are not heavy and it moves quickly there isn't much flood risk. The rapidly falling wind speeds reduce the surge threat in the bay.
Mexico exports their problems. They solve nothing. VietNam will be good....flooding yes. Massive death...no!
Flip on a water vapor shot...Durian does not have even half what it had before.
I wonder if Mexico's solution would even be possible and workable in the US.
I'm talking about Mexico's effective evacuations of the affected populations before TS's and hurricanes.
Explain your interpretation of Mexico's solution please.
Here's the track now.

NRL has it at 50kts now.
I don't know the details of how they manage effective evacuations before events that would cause massive loss of life in another Central American country. Depending on the details it may or may not be applicable in other countries.

MargieKieper didn't say anything about Mexico. She was just pondering the problem of how to persuade people to evacuate.
Well, if you put a gun to someone's head they are more apt to cooperate with you. I don't think that is a possibility in the US.
We are free here to commit suicide if we choose. Just how it is.
In addition to the wind speed I see the new projection keeps it offshore longer and it comes ashore at a steep angle. Looks like it's really picking up speed too. All good.
That's right. That's what I posted.
If it is the gun to head it shouldn't be used anywhere. That's why I want to find out the details.

It could be something like the government offering the only means of transport -- take this bus or you're stuck. That wouldn't work in the US.
I was commenting on what you posted to let you know that I read and understood it.
This problem is like trying to solve college football rankings. You cannot solve it.
30 suspected communist rebels found dead in Albay mudflow

First posted 15:57:00 (Mla time) 2006-12-04
Delfin Mallari Jr.

LUCENA CITY -- At least 30 bodies of suspected New Peoples Army (NPA) guerrillas who died in one of last weeks mudflows from Mayon volcano were discovered and retrieved by Army soldiers in a remote area of Daraga town in Albay.

Major Ramon Rosario, commander of the Armed Forces Civil Relations Service in Southern Luzon, which is based in Camp Nakar here, said the mangled and unidentified bodies of men and women were found Friday afternoon under tons of black mud that had swamped a cluster of shacks.

Last Thursday, typhoon Reming (international codename: Durian) triggered flows of mud, volcanic ash and boulders that rushed down Mayons slopes. Officials say the mudflows may have killed more than 1,000 people.

Aside from the suspected rebels remains, soldiers also discovered 10 hand grenades, ammunition, medical kits and subversive documents, Rosario said.

We believe that there are also lots of buried firearms and our men are still digging the place, Rosario said in an interview here.

The recovered items indicated that, most probably, the buried persons were members of an NPA unit operating in the area, he said. Military intelligence operatives reported that the terrorist group was about to hold a top level meeting in the vicinity when Reming struck.

Rosario said their efforts to establish the identities of the victims proved futile.

They were not known in the area, he said. We asked the survivors from the place, including some village officials, but all of them denied knowing the dead. If the victims were not from the place, what were they doing there? Why do they have explosives and ammunition and communist paraphernalia?

The NPAs Santos Binamera Command operates in Albay province.

So, we have communist terrorists.....lots of dirt and mud.....now government pork and political dirt!

When this government releases their designated funds.....maybe the international relief might happen here. Sounds like the US!

PR, says solon on Palaces P1-B fund for Reming victims

First posted 16:01:08 (Mla time) 2006-12-04
Maila Ager

MALACAANGs claim that the P1 billion pesos for victims of typhoon Reming (international codename: Durian) will come from the oppositions pork barrel is just for press release, according to a leader of the opposition bloc at the House of Representatives.

Wherever that came from, it is their discretion, that is only for PR so that it will look good since it allegedly came from our pork,Minority Floor Leader Francis Escudero said in Filipino in his regular press briefing on Monday.

But if the funds came from the pork of the minority, why are they not giving it to the minority when we need it too? he asked.

Escudero lamented that even during crises, the government seemed to favor only its allies and not its perceived enemies.

In fact, Escudero disclosed that until now, the relief and rehabilitation fund that the government had promised to victims of typhoon Milenyo (international codename: Xangsane) had not yet been released.

Escudero's district in Sorsogon was one of the areas hit by Milenyo in September.

He said President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Budget Secretary Rolando Andaya had promised to release their district allocations so that they could help the victims and the rehabilitation of the areas affected by the storm.

They claimed that we are not writing. Well, we are now humbling ourselves that is why we are writing. We informed them about our districts needs. But up to this time, Milenyo has gone and now its Reming, and not a single cent has been released to us, Escudero claimed.

I thought that the administration had merely hardened its heart.
But now, it is showing that it does not have a heart by blatantly using politics in choosing who it will and will not serve, Escudero said.

Escudero said that in the interest of transparency and truth, the government should come out and say whether the fund had been released.

Escudero has filed a resolution seeking a P2 billion-allocation for victims of typhoon Reming (international codename: Durian) and for the reconstruction and rehabilitation of the damaged areas not only in the Bicol Region but in other affected areas as well.

Escudero said his proposal was on top of the P12-billion aid fund that Speaker Jose de Venecia had put forward.

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Would they say they knew them even if they did?
LOL....the whole village was most likely involved. This is their largest problem there.
This is the real sick part.....I've been waiting for this situation to shake out.
International aid will be real slow if their own government wants to continue to play politics.
How bad must the suffering be?

In fact, Escudero disclosed that until now, the relief and rehabilitation fund that the government had promised to victims of typhoon Milenyo (international codename: Xangsane) had not yet been released.

Escudero's district in Sorsogon was one of the areas hit by Milenyo in September.

For future reference here's a map that gives a fair representation of the terrain of Vietnam along with lots of cities and all the provinces.

I have to call it a night. You have a good one Randrewl.
Yes, thank you.
Sunrise here..Link